Chill

DOG1 modified

Time to review some of the basic investment tenets this pathetic blog has repeated with mind-numbing regularity. Here are 20 things to remember this week, no matter what markets do:

  • Your portfolio should be balanced, with about four-tenths in safe stuff (fixed income) and the rest in growth assets.
  • Lighten up on Canada. Hope you did that two years ago when suggested. Things are going nowhere for a while, and Oct. 19 is a danger point.
  • The growth portion of your portfolio should be diversified, with two-thirds in US and international. The rest maple.
  • Don’t buy stocks. No individual equities unless you have enough dough to diversify, which means seven figures.
  • If you’re silly enough to own stocks, sell the losers instead of hanging on to preserve dignity. Losses are deductible against future gains and remain in force indefinitely. Unlike your sex drive.
  • No mutual funds. You’ll never meet the guy managing the fund, he doesn’t care about you, and you’re paying him too much to do so.
  • Focus on exchange-traded funds (ETFs) which are cheap to own and nicely diversified. But shun inverse or leveraged funds which magnify gains and losses. Pick mainstream offerings with lots of liquidity.
  • Max your tax-free savings account. As of January a couple can have a hundred grand there – plenty of room to have a balanced portfolio, with taxless profits.
  • Don’t panic or worry about timing the market. You’ll end up selling into a storm and buying into a boom.
  • The best time to invest? When you have the money. If you’re investing for long-term financial security, there’s zero advantage to waiting.
  • Own bonds. Sure, the returns suck but they zig when stocks zag. That keeps you safe and mitigates losses.
  • Have a joint non-reg account with your spouse. You can income-split, and if anything happens to one of you, the other gets it all with no legals.
  • Take your CPP at 60. No exceptions.
  • Never believe it’s different this time. It isn’t. It’s boring. You’re not special and these are not defining years.
  • Be tax-efficient. Earn money in the form of capital gains and dividends, not interest, rent or salary, and you will pay as little as half the tax. Wealthy people don’t get that way by working for a living.
  • Expect volatility, then forget about it because you have a balanced and diversified portfolio.
  • Shun GICs. Hold some cash in a HISA if it makes you feel fuzzy, but there’s no justification for locking up funds with the bank, paying taxable interest on money you haven’t received and losing ground to inflation.
  • Never bet against America. It may be fashionable, but it hasn’t worked yet. US corporate profits are forecast to rise 10% in 2016 and 12% the year after. Canada? Nope.
  • If you don’t have the time or stomach for this, hire someone. A fee-based advisor should charge no more than 1% all-in, and it could be deductible.
  • Strive for balance in your entire life. Not too much real estate. Sustainable debt. Love somebody. Get a dog. Know nothing’s more precious than time, including piles of money.
  • Bonus tip: stop reading the comments section.

283 comments ↓

#1 Nick on 08.23.15 at 2:25 pm

Nope not falling for it. Still panicking.

What’s the name of this blog, again? — Garth

#2 mauro on 08.23.15 at 2:29 pm

why don’t you like comments?

I have to read them all. — Garth

#3 Peter W on 08.23.15 at 2:34 pm

“There is no work, to my knowledge, that establishes a link from QE to the ultimate goals of the Fed—inflation and real economic activity.”

-Stephen D. Williamson, St. Louis Fed vice president

(The following link contains autoplay video content)

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/18/st-louis-fed-official-no-evidence-qe-boosted-economy.html

#4 Jetboy on 08.23.15 at 2:35 pm

Garth,
Love the blog…
Any advice for Expat(non-resident) Canucks that want to follow your advice? Know of any safe, self-directed investment sites overseas where we could apply all we’ve learned here over the years?

keep up the good work…
from the sandpit.

#5 Retired34 on 08.23.15 at 2:37 pm

Corrupt government policies mirroring those of the Roaring 1920’s. Guess the outcome or the end result. This time it’s different right or we live in a new paradigm?

#6 mauro on 08.23.15 at 2:38 pm

Garth on your comment
“Know nothing’s more precious than time, including piles of money.”
Isn’t it nice to leave money to your descendants so they struggle a bit less in their life financially? Life is hard, and if you find a way to make big bucks, shouldn’t you milke the cow to help out your descendants or charity?

#7 Sheane Wallace on 08.23.15 at 2:38 pm

nice list, except the bonds part. I won’t touch bonds in my life unless they pay market rates.

oil going into the 30-es range next week. Loonie sinking. 1 gold maple leaf is worth 1620 CAD confetti.

#8 Kuato Lives on 08.23.15 at 2:39 pm

Good advice if you want slow and steady, but if you want a shot at being financially free at a young age, more risk is warranted. My story to financial freedom was a little different. I took the money I earned from the sale of my Calgary house when I sold it (about 200 grand), put it into a single penny stock (after MUCH research), and made about 1.2 million. NOW I’m diversified as per the advice above, but like Matt Damon said in that movie Rounders – if you play it too close to your chest, your whole life can become an effing grind. Good luck to all.

#9 Glen on 08.23.15 at 2:44 pm

My bank financial planner (Nesbit Burns) highlighted to me when I suggested to lighten up on maple that the DOW was down over 4% on the year…so was not all that excited about increasing US exposure.

I like my adviser….seems like a knowledgabe fellow. Cripes….It’s hard to know what to do these days

Sure, wait until stuff costs more and then buy. Great advice. — Garth

#10 pinstripe on 08.23.15 at 2:48 pm

just had the sunday brunch with the old geezers.

the word is very strong that the CPC party is showing many cracks in the armour. Too many are peed off how the grass root feedback is ignored. The cpc candidate in the area is following the party script with no involvement from the grass root message.

all the geezers are planning to start the snowbirding after Oct 19. abc is the word.

#11 Randy Randerson on 08.23.15 at 3:00 pm

Wise words coming from a wise man. Oh another news, here’s a joke for this Sunday. What’s the difference between an intestinal tapeworm and a realturd? One just breaks of pieces of itself, and doesn’t need to screw you to produce miniature parasites. Ba dum tss!

#12 Dave in NS on 08.23.15 at 3:01 pm

Thank you, Garth.

Excellent comments and timely when so many are running off panic stricken. I especially appreciate the CPP @60 tip. I was wondering when to do that as 60 is just a few years away for me.

I have however, not stuck with the bonus tip. I am still working on that.

#13 Arch Douche on 08.23.15 at 3:11 pm

What about that “industrial collapse” you mentioned in the last post that we’d be hearing about in the coming days?

I can’t take this suspense…

#14 CP on 08.23.15 at 3:11 pm

Het Garth, I was just reading the updated chapter in Bernstein’s Four Pillars of Investing. He seems to advise shunning ETF bond funds (like ZAG and VAB). These are my core safe stuff. Do you advise against these, too?

#15 takla on 08.23.15 at 3:12 pm

Hypothetical….If this latest market bubble corrects inline with the 2008 market collapse will a return to tightening credit availability,collapseing home prices and securities tied to U.S realestate priceing recreate a similar housing correction this time affecting Canada as well with the currect oil price deflation?
A housing correction of up to 40% occurred and im wondering if Canada’s correction could possibly be this deep,given Canada’s situation now{oil/ commodity deflation}compared to our situation in 2008.

your thoughts garth?

#16 R Kautnik on 08.23.15 at 3:21 pm

I can sense Dorothy warming up her pitching arm.
Writing your blog this early on such a great day?
BTW, a rolling pin, not a baseball may be launched in your direction.
Heads up.

#17 Fiona on 08.23.15 at 3:22 pm

25 y/o with nothing to my name (yet), I’m saving all these points for future reference. Thank you Garth!

#18 Peter W on 08.23.15 at 3:28 pm

Me vs Stephen Harper

http://archives.garth.ca/2009/04/29/me-vs-stephen-harper/

#19 Victor V on 08.23.15 at 3:28 pm

For those with pups, maxing out RESPs is another no-brainer given the 20% grant from the Feds coupled to tax free growth.

#20 JSS on 08.23.15 at 3:31 pm

Curious – what are Canadian corporate profits forecasted for 2016 and 2017 ?

#21 marvuzzo on 08.23.15 at 3:36 pm

Can u live in a stock?

#22 Freedom First on 08.23.15 at 3:38 pm

I enjoy reading the comments. Especially mine. Of course it helps a great deal to learn who to just scroll past without reading.

#23 Love my Kia on 08.23.15 at 3:41 pm

Love the post!

NOTE: Why don’t you just disable the commenting section?

#24 Randy Randerson on 08.23.15 at 3:46 pm

#4 Jetboy on 08.23.15 at 2:35 pm

For expat investing, you can check out Andrew Hallam’s posts for Canadian expats. He’s a Canadian expat himself and wrote Millionaire Teacher.

http://andrewhallam.com/category/expat-investing/canadians-expat-investing/

#25 Gregory on 08.23.15 at 3:49 pm

**Bonus Bonus tip- Buy Hindenburg.

#26 Boss Pittens on 08.23.15 at 3:53 pm

I have received many helpful comments regarding which gun to purchase to protect my family and my assets, now that we are at the beginning of a new Dark Ages.

I think I’m going to go with the SIG Sauer P226. It should be helpful in keeping other Canadians who “invested” all of their money in housing and/or equities away from my food. It’s comical to think about how many people will soon wonder why they lusted after buying a “home” so badly, when they could have spent that money stocking provisions and preparing for what is about to come…

#27 Retired Boomer - WI on 08.23.15 at 3:59 pm

I like much of your advice, and it has served me pretty well over the past near 30 years. Great minds, similar thought.

The comment section is the for ENTERTAINMENT, your column for the ADVICE. Both are quite good actually, and I like your humor, too.

Besides, you could never invent some of the commenters if you tried. Not that you would need to, they gravitate here.

#28 Nemesis on 08.23.15 at 4:00 pm

#ElvisKnowsHowToChill,Or… #Aloha!… #YouAin’tNothin’… #ButAHoundDog… #IfYou’reBlueInHawaii…

http://youtu.be/R1GPK4Mx_lg

#29 stage1dave on 08.23.15 at 4:02 pm

“stop reading the comments section”

Huh? What the hell am I supposed to do on days off…watch TV?

#30 lee on 08.23.15 at 4:02 pm

I think people should go heavy into Canada growth as long as it’s cheap. If you are a long term investor, at leat fifteen year horizon, it will pay off with efficient taqx treatment.

#31 Jill Jenkinson on 08.23.15 at 4:09 pm

Garth,
How much could Canadian equities fall if the Conservatives don’t win the election? How badly could it hurt the Energy industry out West?

#32 ben on 08.23.15 at 4:22 pm

Bought my first TSFA chunk end of last week. Will buy more if we get another dip.

I think this “don’t time it” argument is BS. I agree trying to time it is tough, but the fact is the FTSE hasn’t moved in 15 years. Only people who made money were those that bought low and sold high.

So if stocks are not moving up the advice has to be either time it or stay out.

#33 Frank on 08.23.15 at 4:30 pm

Of all the news I’ve read out of Calgary lately the most horrifying was this: http://www.metronews.ca/news/calgary/2015/08/20/suspicious-spinal-severings-prompt-warning-to-calgary-cat-owners.html

The price of oil pales in comparison to the suffering of an innocent animal. Pay $10 at a pound, or $1000 for a purebred if that’s your thing, but the investment in a pet is the best I’ve ever made.

#34 Another Albertan on 08.23.15 at 4:34 pm

Energy companies in Calgary are queuing up a significant number of job cuts, likely starting mid-September.

My firm has been asked to write proposals to backfill the culled positions with third-party, contracted staff. Why pay an employee for 40 hours per week when the projected workload appears to be 1/4 to 1/3 that amount?

There will be business units and technical departments in some companies that will be left decimated.

Oil is clearly headed to a trading handle in the 30s. For how long, who knows? Hedging contracts are expiring and new contracts will be entered at notionally half of the value from a year ago. There are a number of firms that will encounter issues with debt coupons coming due in the next few months.

From my discussions in the last month with business owners across Alberta, the tension is becoming very palpable.

Everyone else’s mileage may vary.

#35 Suede on 08.23.15 at 4:42 pm

Buy low sell high, duh.

It’s a back to school sale people.

#36 Bose on 08.23.15 at 4:44 pm

Garth,

Cpp @ 60 vs 65 , can you direct me to the pro’s and cons, is it all pros if taking cpp @ 60 vs 65 ?

Thanks in advance

#37 Berniebee on 08.23.15 at 4:46 pm

#17 Fiona “25 y/o with nothing to my name (yet)”

I had a lot less than nothing when I was 25. What’s wrong with you? ;-)

Seriously, how i started was with ridiculously tiny monthly automatic bank withdrawals to invest in low MER mutual funds. (Later I discovered ETF’s, opened a trading account, and dumped all into a couch potato investment mix, which is similar what The Great Garth recommends. But I digress.)

The point is, start small but start NOW.

#38 David W2 on 08.23.15 at 4:47 pm

Great tips Garth, just one question.

If someone has a long term horizon, why not invest in individual stocks even though they have less than $1mil in investable assets? Sure you might not be able to diversify out all the risk, but neither can your balance portfolio.

I’m 28 and would like to achieve some financial independence sooner rather than later and and be able to enjoy life, start a family and of course, etc.

#39 The fool on 08.23.15 at 4:48 pm

“Have a joint non-reg account with your spouse. You can income-split.”

If am the only to contribute, it legal to put the capital gain and dividend income under my wife name?

#40 For those about to flop... on 08.23.15 at 4:53 pm

Shouldn’t your bonus tip been the first tip!

#41 Chris in Nanaimo on 08.23.15 at 5:01 pm

Took a rare trip to downtown Vancouver this weekend to see aging Rocker Bon Jovi. Seems downtown has become mainly posing hipsters or tourists…..and given the lowly average salary I was amazed at how many Bemmers, Mercs, and other luxury motors i saw. Guess those 8 year leases are increasing in popularity.

Oh and JBJ was excellent, really knows how to put on a show.

#42 Joe2.0 on 08.23.15 at 5:11 pm

Any bets as to when QE4 starts printing.
Or rate hike gets kicked down the road again.
Protect your powder the day of reckoning nears.

#43 BC_Doc on 08.23.15 at 5:14 pm

Re: CPP at 60, do you have a previous column that explains why? Usual (conventional) advice from financial columnists is delay until age 70 unless you have health issues/poor longevity.

#44 Londoner on 08.23.15 at 5:19 pm

“Don’t panic or worry about timing the market. You’ll end up selling into a storm and buying into a boom.”

Nothing wrong with re-balancing to take profit a little more frequently if certain markets get a bit exuberant.

Not owning any fixed income is a big mistake. I’m particularly fond of an index tracking inflation linked gilts ;)

#45 Saint John on 08.23.15 at 5:22 pm

“Take your CPP at 60. No exceptions.”— Pourquoi?

#46 sam on 08.23.15 at 5:28 pm

Good post, I agree with all of it however one being conditional. If the US doesn’t raise rates in September (even Garth suggested it is 100% certain maybe 10 times), I would have to say that this time it does appear to be different, and by “this time” I mean the last 7 years of unprecedented low interest rates. We’re witnesses international political efforts to curtail the inexorable demise of the Bretton Woods system in slow-mo.

#47 Macrath on 08.23.15 at 5:33 pm

RE: #14 CP

From Chapter 6: To ETF or Not to ETF

by William Bernstein

http://abnormalreturns.com/2014/07/21/to-bond-etf-or-not/

Americans can get reasonable expense ratios (MER`s) on their MF`s and can buy bonds through treasury direct.

Here its chronic investor abuse with no end in sight.
Try buying a bond from your brokerage, any GIC around will pay much better. So its ETF`s or TDB909 at a .50% MER.

#48 Zed on 08.23.15 at 5:37 pm

I like the last one and follow it.

#49 Interstellar Old Yeller on 08.23.15 at 6:00 pm

We can income split on a joint non-reg account? Hello, sexy! Will look into that, thanks for the tip!

#50 Ronaldo on 08.23.15 at 6:02 pm

An interesting article by Prof. Michel Chossudovsky, Nov. 15, 2008 and his thoughts on what was happening at that time.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-great-depression-of-the-21st-century-collapse-of-the-real-economy/10977

#51 Jack Manning on 08.23.15 at 6:04 pm

You better take your C.P.P. at age 60 because the Liberals and NDP are going to take that away.

They will put everyone that wants early C.P.P. retirement pensions to 65 years old.

#52 For those about to flop... on 08.23.15 at 6:21 pm

I am not to bothered by all of this weeks happenings.
Is it because I believe I have reasonably balanced portfolio ?….maybe.
Is it because my expected retirement date is decades away?…..maybe
Is it because I don’t have as much money invested in the markets as the other folk on here?…i guess so.
By having only 50% of my money invested with a long timeframe and no need to turn a paper loss into my wife strangling me ,things could be worse.

#53 Reality-check on 08.23.15 at 6:30 pm

I don’t know where your getting your data on the markets but it’s seriously flawed , and I can prove it… I don’t use guessitmates. this market is going to crash …. S&p down to 700. Yes really and I will return to rub ur nose in it when it happens …. You’ve been warned ;)

Yeah I know you’ll probably want to delete it rather let the truth stand on its own and prove me right or u wrong … Go figure. ;)

So, prove it. — Garth

#54 Reality-check on 08.23.15 at 6:32 pm

When the s&p was @ 670. We predicted the Fibonacci retrace meant would be 2138… Darn we were off by a few points ….. Oh well no one is perfect lol

#55 Kan on 08.23.15 at 6:35 pm

I have invested partly in shares. For quite some time. Overall diversified and equities owned in different sectors, equally us and maple, in strong shares. One deficiency is don’t have much fixed income investments. Real question in my mind is what to do with Chevron and Trans Canada Pipeline shares. Sell them? I am under the impression they both have very diversified operational lines of businesses. Thx

#56 Harbour on 08.23.15 at 6:37 pm

Futures bleeding trips…. again
Down goes AAPL…. again

#57 Jon on 08.23.15 at 6:45 pm

Garth,

Last time I posted, I called out a commenter because they basically posted contradicting things within minutes. At first you thought I was criticizing you. I was not.

To your credit or fault; you’ve not wavered on your position for a very long time.

#58 Washed Up Lawyer on 08.23.15 at 6:56 pm

#31 Jill Jenkinson on 08.23.15 at 4:09 pm
Garth,
How much could Canadian equities fall if the Conservatives don’t win the election? How badly could it hurt the Energy industry out West?
****************************

Jill:

What energy industry?

Just arrived back in Ft. McM after three weeks in Calgary, Vancouver and the Rockies and have decided to ignore today’s bonus tip.

Contemplating a class action suit on behalf of the dogs here against Garth to fund our necessary rehab (bearing in mind that rehab is for quitters).

As a class of Plaintiffs, we will need to prove similar symptoms and damages. I am hip deep in empty beer cans and losing lottery tickets. In addition, I am starting to think that Ft. McM is a good place to live.

Are any of you suffering the same symptoms?

Stabbings in Saskatoon would be dismissed as de minimus non curat lex.

#59 Raging Ranter on 08.23.15 at 6:58 pm

As for income splitting outside registered accounts, I prefer to have my wife save most of her income in a margin account for which she has granted me trading authority. I’m in a much higher tax bracket than her. I’ve researched it, and as long as it is her money from her income going into the account, there is no attribution back to me. This makes more sense than a joint account given our vastly different employment incomes and therefore tax brackets.

#60 Wondering if I should be buying, not selling on 08.23.15 at 6:58 pm

Hey Garth,

Love your blog, my question is should I be buying into this down turn? I’m hoping you say yes, because I have been.

#61 Frank on 08.23.15 at 7:00 pm

When the s&p was @ 670. We predicted the Fibonacci retrace meant would be 2138… Darn we were off by a few points ….. Oh well no one is perfect lol

Link or copy with proof that you said this in 2009?

#62 CP on 08.23.15 at 7:12 pm

http://abnormalreturns.com/2014/07/21/to-bond-etf-or-not/

Americans can get reasonable expense ratios (MER`s) on their MF`s and can buy bonds through treasury direct.
“Here its chronic investor abuse with no end in sight.
Try buying a bond from your brokerage, any GIC around will pay much better. So its ETF`s or TDB909 at a .50% MER.”

Thanks Macrath,
I guess I’ll stick with VAB and ZAG and hope interest rates go up at a glacial pace.

#63 OttawaMike on 08.23.15 at 7:13 pm

Margaret Atwood and the Toronto Star nod approvingly at each other regarding Turner’s Hair:
http://m.thestar.com/#/article/news/canada/2008/05/27/mp_paid_big_price_for_speaking_out_in_harpers_ottawa.html

#64 Muttley O'Toole on 08.23.15 at 7:20 pm

Another beautiful dog photo from Garth.
I think that Tom T. Hall song might be true “https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgaDhMg62j”.
Chill out, enjoy the sunshine whilst you still can.

#65 April. on 08.23.15 at 7:22 pm

Okay, I’ll bite. “Take your CPP at 60. No exceptions.” Why? If I’m working, it gets added to my income and then taxed at a higher rate than later (my dinky little pension pieces will not add up to my income now). Yes, I can TFSA it, which is good, but is there enough of an advantage to take it early?

Yes, I know. But if you are going to educate the ignorant, you have to accept that we don’t know things that you know.

#66 Moses71 on 08.23.15 at 7:31 pm

#59-I’m in the same boat as you only I am the breadwinner and my 8yrs my junior waif WITH a 6-pack
Never married so that can’t be good. Oh well he he
#60-mr. Garth might say anytime is good if your balanced & diversified, as per Garth’s specific breakdown. But when “tools” are cheaper, make a run for it
& the again Garth for your awesome free advice. Taking heed over here!

#67 Sheane Wallace on 08.23.15 at 7:44 pm

Mark’s deflation:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-inflation-rate-picks-july-food-prices-rise-124500833–business.html

No pension for old man:
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/document-raises-questions-harper-retirement-090000334.html

The financial minister is 73 years old, folks.
Food inflation is rampant.

#68 Randy Randerson on 08.23.15 at 7:45 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JMV_r4LjQIo

From my favorite movie. Retail investors are Honey Bunny going crazy, and GT is Jules Winnfield telling “Bitch be cool!”

#69 Jane Glenn on 08.23.15 at 7:46 pm

For those that like investing in REIT’s and like the favorable tax treatment of them, watch out, the NDP will be taxing that at a higher income tax rates which will cut into yields.

#70 Show Me The Money on 08.23.15 at 7:57 pm

Garth
Any advice on where I should park my money on dips these dips we are experiencing? I’m wondering if I should save some cash to buy oil soon, what do you think?

#71 Frank on 08.23.15 at 7:57 pm

but is there enough of an advantage to take it early?

Because statistically speaking, looking at actuarial tables the amount you’ll collect over your lifetime is greater if you draw starting at 60.

#72 Daisy Mae on 08.23.15 at 8:10 pm

#29: “stop reading the comments section”

Huh? What the hell am I supposed to do on days off…watch TV?

***********************

TV? Now, THAT’S pathetic….

#73 Nagraj on 08.23.15 at 8:13 pm

#58 WASHED UP LAWYER

There was a young lawyer named Rex
Who had very small organs of sex
When charged with exposure
He said with composure
De minimis non curat lex

NORA LENDERBY

Whereas suicide bomber Abu Bubu is treated to 72 virgin belly dancers in a satin setting, on Fiddler’s Green a double decker bus full of doxies pulls up next to a trebuchet and the ladies are willy nilly catapulted into a mess of excited Billy Budds.
Toffy explained to me that KCMG means Kentucky (Fried) Chicken Minus (the) Guilt, but the GIT said Knight of the Curious about Madalberta and Gemma (Galgani).
Cox Box is a registered trade mark!

GARTH TURNER

The dog in the picture sold everything Fri morning and ordered buckets of Canadian gold Maple Leaf coins. He did this in cahoots with Bandit, there’s a reason why Bandit speaks into his iPhone6 in hushed tones.

#74 jess on 08.23.15 at 8:13 pm

Never bet against America?
…. they are more likely to go after rigged casino machines than voting machines

So if Florida is considered the Corruption Capital of America
http://www.integrityflorida.org/
http://www.nosue.org/florida-corruption/
“Destroyed records. Shadowy projects with names like “Sputnik” and “Frankenstein.” And a college student whose identity was stolen to provide cover for political operatives.
After a five-year battle over the Sunshine State’s shadowy election system, however, all this could finally be changing.

Nick Kirkpatrick new york times July 10, 2015
The Florida Supreme Court ruled Thursday that the state legislature must redraw at least eight congressional districts, including the 5th, that had been gerrymandered to favor the GOP…Writing for the majority, Justice Barbara Pariente said the court affirmed “the trial court’s factual findings and ultimate determination that the redistricting process and resulting map were ‘taint(ed)’ by unconstitutional intent to favor the Republican Party and incumbents.”…But Pariente’s decision went much further than the trial court’s, slamming political consultants and politicians for their secrecy — including deleted e-mails — and essentially arguing that the state legislature could no longer be trusted to draw its own districts.”
==================
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/27204-computerized-vote-rigging-is-still-the-unseen-threat-to-american-democracy-it-s-time-to-change-the-system

Murder Spies and Voting Lies Part 1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=25&v=GhBtfiRKaVY

#75 Yuus bin Haad on 08.23.15 at 8:14 pm

Stop reading the comments? Garth, they’re the punchline to your setup!

#76 reality-check on 08.23.15 at 8:15 pm

u want proof ? here you go :)

When the S&P achieved fibonacci time relationship, it simultaneously reached a level at which the rise from 2009 became a fib of 1.618 multiple OF the decline of the 2007-2009 bear market. It fell from an intraday high in 2007 of 1567.09 to an intraday low of 666.79 in 2009 for a total decline of 909.30 points TIMES 1.618 which equals 1471.25 when we add that to the 2009 low it projects a peak of ….. wait for it ….SURPRISE SURPRISE :) 2138.04 imagine that :) this advice was free …if you want to know how i calculated that …. it will cost you $$$$

have fun!!

That was so convincing. (Remember what I said about the comment section?) — Garth

#77 reality-check on 08.23.15 at 8:18 pm

ps …these time and price events have cleared the way for a stunning decline in us stocks that will take your breath away …. and fill up MY bank account :)

#78 Darryl on 08.23.15 at 8:22 pm

“why don’t you like comments?

I have to read them all. — Garth”

LMAO Garth . Thanks for the laugh.

#79 AK on 08.23.15 at 8:23 pm

“•Take your CPP at 60. No exceptions.”
================================

Even after 2016, when the discount for taking CPP benefits at age 60 will be 36%. ???

#80 kommykim on 08.23.15 at 8:32 pm

RE: #21 marvuzzo on 08.23.15 at 3:36 pm
Can u live in a stock?

Yes, but it’s not very comfortable:
http://gobigorgohomeblog.com/content/Stockade-Medium.jpg

#81 Sosuke Aizen on 08.23.15 at 8:33 pm

“Focus on exchange-traded funds (ETFs) which are cheap to own and nicely diversified.”

The problem with the majority of ETFs, especially in Canada, is that they have too little trading volume. There are many ETFs with less than ten trades or even zero volume on some days! What kind of liquidity do you call that? Examples of thinly-traded ETFs are those from Invesco (Powershares), Claymore, First Asset, Questrade (Russell), First Trust, and BMO.

Compounding the liquidity problem of thinly-traded ETFs is that they are usually based on proprietary indices*, and neither the indices nor the NAVs are updated intraday. On any day, you can’t place a market order, because there isn’t enough volume to get a fair price. And it is too much to ask the average investor to guess the intraday NAV.

*QQC (NASDAQ 100), QMV (Russell US Midcap Value Index), & ZEA (MSCI EAFE) are examples of ETFs not based on proprietary indices, yet still have pathetically low trading volumes.

Which is why I said to buy mainstream assets with lots of liquidity. Obviously. — Garth

#82 Randy on 08.23.15 at 8:46 pm

My fav is ‘stop reading the comments section’

#83 John in Mtl on 08.23.15 at 8:51 pm

Re: CPPat 60,

In Quebec we have RRQ, same thing really. However, if we start drawing at 60, the amount is quite lower than at 65. Does this also apply to the CPP?

As “#71 Frank on 08.23.15 at 7:57 pm” mentioned about actuarial tables showing you’ll end up drawing more in the long run… I’m not so sure; you have to live long to catch up, no?

I have to calculate this.

#84 reality-check on 08.23.15 at 8:52 pm

i rest my case …. most economists ignore dow theory, BUt its record is better than theirs.the three biggest market turns of the past 50 years sported dramatic dow theory non-confirmations. The fourth and biggest one is about to rear its ugly head. All of them the transports were leading the averages as they are now doing….. read it and weep :)

#85 Al on 08.23.15 at 8:59 pm

Getting sick of Canada and its rampant socialism, ie taxation at every turn. How do i best pull $$ out of this sinking ship and to somewhere offshore? Will move out of country in the next couple years.

#86 Richard on 08.23.15 at 9:02 pm

RE: #8 Kuato Lives

“Put all your life savings into a single penny stock…”

Now there’s the investment advice I’ve been looking for. All I have to do now is find that one stock. It shouldn’t be that much of a problem. I’m going to be rich!!

#87 BREAKING NEWS on 08.23.15 at 9:04 pm

Loonie hits another decade low.

Asia (Japan) going down. Shanghai about to open.

Sure hope you sold last Weds.

#88 BREAKING NEWS on 08.23.15 at 9:06 pm

Oil in the 30’s.

Fed will wait to raise rates. Global economy is toast.

Failed experiment by the 1%.

#89 A nobody on 08.23.15 at 9:25 pm

This idea that timing doesn’t matter when investing in the financial markets or any market or enterprise for that matter is foolish.

Timing is everything .. In real estate , in stock markets , in life itself.

Right now , anyone thinking that buying in now to the financial markets is ” ok” given the momentum to the downside is just plain nuts .

#90 lee on 08.23.15 at 9:32 pm

If Toronto population keeps growing by about 100000 people a year how can Toronto real estate not be a great place to plop some money?

#91 Same Babblemaster on 08.23.15 at 9:35 pm

#33 Frank

“The price of oil pales in comparison to the suffering of an innocent animal. ”

——————————————————

Really? Cats are innocent animals? What nonsense. Do you know how many innocent birds are killed by outside cats? And while we’re at it, what about Shelly the Antelope? She was killed by Cecil the Lion. Nobody made a big deal about that. I certainly agree that there is no need to hurt animals just for the sake of hurting them, but I don’t suffer an emotional kanyption over it. I save that for little suffering “humans” and put my money where my mouth is by donating to Sick Kids.

#92 common sense on 08.23.15 at 9:39 pm

Risk = Reward. Always remember your investing your savings.

Don’t be greedy…take cash out of winners, sell losers. No one has ever lost selling at a profit…

As a minor investor (portfolio at $240K), most in etf indexed but also always holding 10-20% in 4-5 individual stocks….guess where my biggest gains have been over 25 years ?

Spend less than you make. Live within in your means.

Never made more than 30K a year and at 54 have a net worth of $650k with zero debt. If I can do it, anyone can..

Thanks Garth and the person here who put me on to David Stockman’s site!

#93 Smoking Man on 08.23.15 at 9:41 pm

#87 BREAKING NEWS on 08.23.15 at 9:04 pm
Loonie hits another decade low.

Asia (Japan) going down. Shanghai about to open.

Sure hope you sold last Weds
…..

HOW tragic…..

For anyone that didn’t go long USDCAD
P&L up another 150k. since last week…

#94 Fiendish Thingy on 08.23.15 at 9:41 pm

Garth-
Do you still recommend taking CPP at 60 for someone who immigrated to BC from the U.S. in 2012, and will turn 60 in 2017, with just 5 years paying into the system, or waiting until I retire at 62? Either way, I figure it’ll only be a couple hundred dollarettes a month, and I’ll still have SS, pensions, and investment income.

#95 lurker on 08.23.15 at 9:46 pm

Garth,

With Canadian banks nearing single digit P/E’s, am I crazy to think about buying these in my non-registered account for their dividends?

#96 Observer on 08.23.15 at 9:49 pm

Federal audit takes aim at money-laundering real estate transactions in Vancouver area

http://www.theprovince.com/news/vancouver/Federal+audit+takes+money+laundering+real+estate/11311753/story.html

#97 ANON on 08.23.15 at 9:51 pm

Chilling indeed.

#98 just a dude on 08.23.15 at 9:52 pm

Nice. Good to be reminded of the basics of sleep-easy investing every now and then. Nice additional reminders as well: love somebody, learn from the four-legged creatures that constantly remind us about the love part and stopping to smell the flowers every day, add to that the part about not pissing away the most precious commodities that we all have (time+health+mind), and life is good. Thanks

#99 kommykim on 08.23.15 at 10:01 pm

RE: #38 David W2 on 08.23.15 at 4:47 pm
Great tips Garth, just one question.
If someone has a long term horizon, why not invest in individual stocks even though they have less than $1mil in investable assets?

Because there is a chance that some of the stocks you pick will go to zero. It is highly unlikely that an index ETF and the index it tracks will go to zero. Unless you can buy 100s of different stocks for each of the major markets, just don’t go there.

#100 old gringo on 08.23.15 at 10:09 pm

As I have said several times in the past two months or more, “watch out for China”.
This is the canary in OUR coal mine.
Its like watching a slow motion train wreck.
C’est le vie

#101 SWL1976 on 08.23.15 at 10:13 pm

Great advice Garth with exception to the bonus tip.

Well since all of us eccentrics like to congregate here I figure this would be a great place to share this link. I am doing some research for a Jade Helm update for my blog and came across some interesting and disturbing information with regards to the operation itself and the use of AI to figure out some of the dirty work.

When the defense of liberty becomes a crime; tyranny is already in force

It’s time we all take a closer look and question the world in which we all live

#102 Led on 08.23.15 at 10:16 pm

Cmon people. This is the start of the apocolypse. no fed hike. deflation is here. kiss your house prices goodbye, as well as your RRSPS. We are done.

The problem is too much debt. How can you have consumer confidence when everyone is walking around with maxed credit cards. The answer is a jubilee. Or at least start up the printing presses and get the money into the hands of the people this time. Let the banks try and get the money from the people, instead of the other way around.

#103 will on 08.23.15 at 10:22 pm

Sorry Garth, me too: why CPP at 60 no exceptions? I’m getting close myself.

I shall soon address this again. — Garth

#104 Jack BeNimble on 08.23.15 at 10:25 pm

Since you are stuck reading the comments, I’d simply like to send my thanks.

I was directed to this wonderfully pathetic blog by a (obviously) wise uncle and have since had the opportunity to also discuss these pearls of wisdom you’ve shared with a few friends who now navigate here as well.

For myself, the blog (being a healthy dollop of uncommon financial sense) been a great lighthouse in troubled waters. It has particularly been a lifesaver when having to do battle with the waves of friends, family and greater fools so obsessed with “buying the most house (you) can before you are priced out forever”. So thanks for the directions, Captain.

#105 Balmuto on 08.23.15 at 10:34 pm

Does anyone still care about Greece?

#106 John on 08.23.15 at 10:39 pm

#53 Reality-check

So put all your money in SPXS – Triple leveraged inverse SP500 fund. You will make close to 10X your money. You can post screenshots of you trading account and let us know how much money you’re making along the way.

#107 45north on 08.23.15 at 10:40 pm

Victor V: from his link:
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/why-the-housing-bubble-is-not-up-for-debate/

Given the decisions regarding the housing market that will have to be made by the next government, the election campaign has been a disappointment.

the political parties have every opportunity to make housing an issue. But they don’t.

Another Albertan: Energy companies in Calgary are queuing up a significant number of job cuts, likely starting mid-September.

that got my attention

#108 Marco on 08.23.15 at 10:49 pm

Thanks Garth,

using the 1990 way of measuring inflation in the U.S. -Puts inflation at 5-6%. Pre 1980 around 10%. They seem to be finding creative ways of measurement there and here.
If real inflation is actually between 5-6% and rising, as many are saying, it would seem the Fed will have no choice but to hike sooner than later, to keep real inflation at bay.

Cheers.

#109 Apocalypse2015 on 08.23.15 at 10:52 pm

China now in “free fall” this morning

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34037122

Catastrophe is now about to envelop us, in so many ways, globally and locally.

A horrific decade and more lies ahead, sorry to say.

Nah, you’re loving it. — Garth

#110 chapter 9 on 08.23.15 at 11:01 pm

#103 Will
Why CPP at 60 no exceptions? I’m getting close myself.

The fed’s can change the rules tomorrow and besides it’s money,not time!!

#111 Van Isle Renter on 08.23.15 at 11:11 pm

WTI oil now trading at $39.41. This will leave a mark. Western Canada Select probably trade around $30.00 in the a.m.

My vote for next bankruptcy is Penn West. Real estate prices Up Island dropping fast. Fear is in the air now.

Sold all the Oil and Gas stuff last year and went bullet-proof.

Time to go sailing.

#112 UH OH on 08.23.15 at 11:15 pm

Chinese stocks down 9%. The tide is going out on the global economy. Prepare to hunker down.

The U.S. is far more consequential, and there the recovery continues. — Garth

#113 JacqueShellacque on 08.23.15 at 11:23 pm

Also remember that wealth accumulation is contrarian. You don’t get there doing what everyone else does.

I know Garth you generally eschew metal, but does that go for metal index ETFs? Some of those suckers are selling at 10 year lows.

#114 Nosty, etc. on 08.23.15 at 11:24 pm

“Things are going nowhere for a while, and Oct. 19 is a danger point.”
— and —
#10 pinstripe on 08.23.15 at 2:48 pm — “Too many are peed off how the grass root feedback is ignored.”

HolyHotDamnSonOfAGun — You’re right!

#240 DON on 08.23.15 at 1:41 pm – “More interested in the the two market downturns and the two explosions in China.”Retaliation for the recent Chinese blasts? Plus China saturating market(s) with cash.

When the TPP is resurrected under a new name, it is designed to strip away countries’ sovereignty. Is it a reflection of A21?

#115 Frank on 08.23.15 at 11:40 pm

If I’m planning on buying a house in the next 2-3 years (assuming prices go the way I hope) and my downpayment is in a balanced portfolio. When should I consider extracting it so as to not risk it.

#116 milla on 08.23.15 at 11:40 pm

#91 Sam. Out of topic, but so disagree, cannot be silent. The responsible parents are able to rase children without anyone help. And those who do not like animals ussualy are very lousy parents.

#117 Leo Trollstoy on 08.23.15 at 11:49 pm

Bonus tip: stop reading the comments section

Totally agree. Can’t do well listening to wage slaves.

#118 Leo Trollstoy on 08.23.15 at 11:51 pm

For anyone that didn’t go long USDCAD
P&L up another 150k. since last week…

Some idiots even thought that the CAD was going to rise against the USD.

Fools.

#119 Leo Trollstoy on 08.23.15 at 11:55 pm

#76 reality-check on 08.23.15 at 8:15 pm

One of the worst comments I’ve ever read. Very obviously written by a poor person.

#120 no canada, no on 08.24.15 at 12:03 am

It’s a bubble: us equities, bonds and canada real estate. It’s going to normalize (people will think it’s a blow out and complete crash – it isn’t) and I don’t believe that the diversified portfolio will help anyhow.

All three is going to normalize, which means all these stupid gains over last 3-4 years (bonds+RE+equties) going to return to inflation level (2-3% percent per year).

#121 NotAGreaterFool on 08.24.15 at 12:08 am

First the stories about “soft” fraud in the real estate market. Now leaks of hard fraud:

http://www.theprovince.com/business/Federal+audit+takes+money+laundering+real+estate/11311753/story.html

Everything and all is going wrong for Harper.

Who will Harper hold “accountable” now?

#122 Godth on 08.24.15 at 12:12 am

#117 Leo Trollstoy on 08.23.15 at 11:49 pm

DOW 20 000 right troll? We should all just listen to the entitled, silver spoon, useless trustafarians.

Check out the pre-markets and Asian markets. Whoops. Fantasy meet reality?

I’m chillin.

#123 The man on 08.24.15 at 12:13 am

I had total respect for you up until you said get a dog!!!

MEOW :)

#124 Down goes china on 08.24.15 at 12:43 am

http://www.etnet.com.hk/hv/globalindex/cn_index.php

#125 nonplused on 08.24.15 at 12:45 am

I will address the economic insights of this at the end.

Dummies.

Ok, driving on Friday or Sunday in the summer is always a hassle, it’s busy and there is always some old guy at the front of the line who can’t go 80 km unless he is in a passing lane and then he can floor it so you have to go 130 km to get by him. Jerk. If you want to go 80 go 80 the whole way and let people pass.

But here is a new trend I have observed that is compounding congestion. Passing in the passing (right) lane. If traffic is congested, a few narcissistic soles will figure they should jump to the front of the line using the passing (right) lane and then squeeze back in. But it’s already bumper to bumper in the regular lanes so there is no room for them. The result is a near stoppage in traffic. Assholes. Stay in line if it’s bumper to bumper you have no room to go around and nobody you passed wants to let you in. I don’t mind letting people in at a merge or a lane reduction but if you intentionally went around me in the passing lane you can wait until I go by to get your turn asshole. It’s the same as queue jumping. Budding or “budging” I guess the kids call it now in line. F-U, go back to your spot.

The problem is the merging of the people passing on the right when there is no room for them in front causes a traffic jam and slows traffic much more than would be the case if they had stayed in line.

Do not pass on the right in a passing lane. Those are for slower moving vehicles and your presence there will simply cause a cluster f$5k that will result in slower movement.

So the economics? It’s the tragedy of the commons again. One asshole thinks he can outsmart the group by using the passing lane (right lane) to go by the traffic and he gets 5 car lengths ahead and causes a near stoppage for everyone else on the road. Economics dictates we should optimize our own outcomes, which is what these assholes are doing. But when you optimize your own relative outcome compared to others such that everyone including you loose you aren’t doing it right. The point is for everyone to win in varying degrees, not to be the best of the loosers.

#126 raider on 08.24.15 at 12:54 am

Watching S&P and DOW futures. When I was a kid, there was a song about that people listened to in 1987 back home :D
https://youtu.be/w9aYrHzEW-w

#127 kommykim on 08.24.15 at 1:02 am

RE: #109 Apocalypse2015 on 08.23.15 at 10:52 pm
China now in “free fall” this morning
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34037122
Catastrophe is now about to envelop us, in so many ways, globally and locally.
A horrific decade and more lies ahead, sorry to say.

Hint: Change your handle to “Traders are in an all out panic” and post “It is going to be a nasty crash traders, a nasty crash” over and over…..

#128 TheAwakenedOne on 08.24.15 at 1:02 am

Thanks Garth, for the valuable advice: this is truly crystallized investment knowledge – for FREE!

Readers: if you follow these tips, you’ll do fine – this is an understatement.

The same tenets I have seen in some books, like The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham: diversification, ignore Mr. Market’s bipolar daily callings; and view a house as place, a neighbour hood to live in – like Robert Shiller has advised.

Imagine if we pay attention at every single ripple in the ocean on a cruise… we’ll miss enjoying the vista view of the horizon.

I need a Lab Retriever soon!

#129 Frank on 08.24.15 at 1:03 am

I save that for little suffering “humans” and put my money where my mouth is by donating to Sick Kids.

Congratulations. Make sure you tell more people about your charitable giving, the sick kids love it!

#130 nonplused on 08.24.15 at 1:05 am

PS if a slower moving vehicle like a semi did take the passing lane because he was going to be slow on the grade (proper use of a passing lane) do be a good soul and let him in when he’s running out of room because the lane is ending. He did a good deed letting people pass, but once the lane ends and his signal comes on his choices are screech to a stop and wait for Monday, hit the ditch, or push you into oncoming traffic. Chances are he will chose the latter if you won’t be polite.

Remember slow traffic goes on the right.

Oh and that reminds me yet again another traffic problem. If you only want to go as fast as the people in the right lane, get in the right lane! “Slow traffic keep right” does not mean “well I’m not slow, so I shouldn’t have to keep right!” Keep right except to pass.

Idiots. None of you know how to drive.

And I am not sure I am upset or not about motorcycles that pass on the shoulder. I think it’s probably not a good idea.

#131 Yitzhak Rabin on 08.24.15 at 1:06 am

It’s a sea of red once again:
http://www.investing.com/indices/world-indices

Soon the US market will take out the “Bullard lows” of last October.

The phony recovery was built on nothing but cheap money and QE, it is now imploding in a repeat of 2008.

Time for Garth to schedule another conference call.

#132 Mike T. on 08.24.15 at 1:12 am

the only advice I would offer is this

find the things you like to do the most in life and do them as often as possible

this does not apply if you like hurting yourself or others, please don’t do that

#133 nonplused on 08.24.15 at 1:17 am

ok I have decided not upset about motorcycles that pass in the shoulder but if traffic is stopped and someone swings their door open to let their dog out for a pee and the motorcycle gets it, the motorcyclists estate should pay to fix the car door and reconstitution for the dog if they hit it and nobody should feel guilty about the motorcyclists death. Some things are at your own risk, and passing in the shoulder is one of them. Other than that I don’t care. “At your own risk”.

#134 Steve French on 08.24.15 at 1:19 am

Folks it is time to PANIC !!

That debt tsunami that has been travelling silently at 900 km per hour under the ocean?

….. That tsunami is about the crash right over Vancouver’s property bubble!

I suggest you stop looking at the sea shells and start sprinting folks!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IuUygn7BZis

YEEEEEEEEHHHAAAWWWWWW !!!!!!!!!!

#135 Nagraj on 08.24.15 at 1:30 am

#76 REALITY CHECK

I can’t imagine a professional trader simply ignoring Fibonacci retracements.

I don’t have a problem with the philosophical premise of Elliott Wave theory (most people do) but actual wave counting in the present – is beyond me.
Kinda like you walk into a mall and the YOU ARE HERE arrow on the map reads YOU ARE PROBABLY HERE BUT MAYBE NOT.

Everybody does plain vanilla tech analysis – but, I suggest, you pay attention only to the (few) finicky purists. If you can find one. The practical boys make mistakes all over the place.

John Murphy (Intermarket Technical Analysis) has said that if Dow were alive today he’d include the UTIL in constructing the Dow Theory. (Business cycle theory is very interesting. Especially now.)

GT, it seems to me, is a no-holds-barred fundamental analyst par excellence. These analysts are macro-data dependent. Limited to choosing, I go with the fundamentalist BUT you want to understand how the data is read: it’s not as if interpreting fundamental ec data happens absent context. The same set of (presumably correct) numbers will elicit very different responses from various social elements. (David Stockman has said the numbers the Fed looks at are disposable antiques.)

I sorely miss Todd Harrison and his emphasis on market psychology and social mood. That stuff I get without a problem. Hope he comes back.

#136 to_be_frank on 08.24.15 at 1:53 am

Garth – I like all of your points of advice above except that I disagree with “Take CPP @ 60 (no exceptions)” which several other commenters have questioned. The penalty for taking CPP at age 60 is very high – the 2016 entitlement is 36% less than it is at 65 and 55% less than if one waits until 70. Current life expectancy @ age 60 for a male is 83 and female is 86 (OSFI – Mortality Projections for Social Security Programs in Canada – Table 6). The present value of the pre-tax CPP income stream if received until age 83 is greater if you delay taking it at a later age. Individual taxation and life expectancy considerations may indicate taking it earlier, or similarly for someone with insufficient savings who can’t afford to live without the reduced income. But for the average person, it looks like there is a significant benefit to waiting.

#137 Butch on 08.24.15 at 2:53 am

“Fed Likely to Hold Off on September Rate Increase: Business Economists Survey”

http://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-likely-to-hold-off-on-september-rate-increase-business-economists-survey-1440388860

Maybe December? 2016? Never.

#138 Fortune500 on 08.24.15 at 7:11 am

Looks like this site is popular with us expat Canadians. I second Andrew Hallam. The conditions starting to develop are very similar to how he made his net worth jump.

#139 Apocalypse2015 on 08.24.15 at 7:26 am

DOW is now down over 400 points in pre-market.

China markets now down over 40% from summer highs.

China pension plans are being told to put 30% of value into their crashing markets.

That oughtta end well :(

(Maybe they will buy your delisted Nortel and Bre-X shares too – worth a try! Throw in some losing 649 tickets, why not!?)

Can you spell T-I-P-P-I-N-G P-O-I-N-T ?

#140 A nobody on 08.24.15 at 7:42 am

I have a little bit of my savings in the markets . Getting killed like everyone else over past few days I supposedly everyone else.

It always surprises me how much more and how much faster you can lose money in the stock markets than you can ever make. I mean , I don’t think I will ever see the Dow up two consecutive days of 500+ points yet here we go again with drops of over 500.

Meanwhile I am sure glad I own my home free and clear and a rental as well in the GTA. No affect there. I think that they are impervious.

Markets rise over time more than they fall by a large factor. A 500-point gain is never on Page One of the newspaper. A 500-point decline always is. — Garth

#141 Mike in Toronto on 08.24.15 at 7:48 am

#136 to_be_frank

“The penalty for taking CPP at age 60 is very high – the 2016 entitlement is 36% less than it is at 65 and 55% less than if one waits until 70. Current life expectancy @ age 60 for a male is 83 and female is 86 (”

Not sure I understand this correctly, but if you took the benefit at 60, you would get 55% less for 23 years, vs the what you would get at 70 for 13 years.

$450/mo x12x23 = $124,200
$1000/mo x12x13 = $156,000

Hmm, seems like a good point. Although this is close enough to make me think that they’ve got a good handle on the actuary tables.

My family has a long life expectancy, not sure how it factors in.

BTW My father’s dealing with claw-backs due to a real-estate sale which is killing him in his taxes. Well, not killing him, but my father is a cheap, cheap man. Cheap enough to have turned me on to Garth when he was writing in real-estate papers.

#142 Smoking Man on 08.24.15 at 7:49 am

#137 Butch on 08.24.15 at 2:53 am
“Fed Likely to Hold Off on September Rate Increase: Business Economists Survey”

http://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-likely-to-hold-off-on-september-rate-increase-business-economists-survey-1440388860.

Maybe December? 2016? Never.
……

Im going out on a limb here , its high time we test all those changes in Computer systems to see how they handle negative rates.

I read the link, 37% of economist’s think no Sept Rate hike.

100% of Herdoeconomists have been calling that for a while.

This is what bugs me about English.

I read the book.
I will read the book.

Same word , different sound.

See how screwed up it is…

#143 A nobody on 08.24.15 at 8:00 am

5 at 7:42 am
I have a little bit of my savings in the markets . Getting killed like everyone else over past few days I supposedly everyone else.

It always surprises me how much more and how much faster you can lose money in the stock markets than you can ever make. I mean , I don’t think I will ever see the Dow up two consecutive days of 500+ points yet here we go again with drops of over 500.

Meanwhile I am sure glad I own my home free and clear and a rental as well in the GTA. No affect there. I think that they are impervious.

Markets rise over time more than they fall by a large factor. A 500-point gain is never on Page One of the newspaper. A 500-point decline always is. — Garth

There has never been a 500 point increase in the Dow and certainly not back to back like down today.

Please correct me if I’m wrong

Sure. You’re wrong. The largest one-day point gain was 936. The largest one-day point loss was 777. — Garth

#144 ben on 08.24.15 at 8:03 am

Who is excited about the TSX open? FTSE tanking like a good ‘un so far. Bonne chance.

#145 Nora Lenderby on 08.24.15 at 8:13 am

#130 nonplused on 08.24.15 at 1:05 am

Idiots. None of you know how to drive.

Oh dear – anxiety disorder? Traffic can do that to a person.

#146 Tony on 08.24.15 at 8:17 am

Re: #141 Mike in Toronto on 08.24.15 at 7:48 am

What if the Canadian pension plan gets wiped out by say bad investments? Take it at 60 if there’s anything there.

#147 the Jaguar on 08.24.15 at 8:18 am

For all those questioning why to take CPP at sixty and citing actuarial tables showing average longevity for Canadians being age 85, etc :
Don’t believe it. The obitiuaries tell a different story. Most people exit in their mid 70’s. Don’t look to your parents or grandparents longevity for a guarantee of your own. With the sedentary lifestyle, modern diet, and stress load most experience today, few make it to 85. Cancer and diabetes are epidemics. Not trying to be a gloomy puss, but you only have to examine the landscape. Here is the real statistic: If you make it to age 60, you have a 1 in 2 chance to make it to age 80.

#148 reality-check on 08.24.15 at 8:21 am

i told you so …. need i say more ;) this is not just a simple correction …

They are never simple, but always beneficial in the long run. Except for the fools who panic and sell into a storm. — Garth

#149 TurnerNation on 08.24.15 at 8:37 am

Re. black monday…I have FXI.US $33 level as target anyway.
Lots of good buying ops coming up in time for 10k Jan TSFA reload.

Chancellor Rebalancer
Yield Hound
REITa MacNeil

#150 Old Soldier on 08.24.15 at 8:38 am

Hon GT

Thanks so much for your insight.

Dogs, like all things this too shall pass but if not your well diversified portfolio that only exists in a digital world will be the least of your worries.

#151 pbrasseur on 08.24.15 at 8:51 am

My guess is the idiots who are panicking here are the same who are expecting a NDP government will makes things better…

Garth how do you feel about writing almost every day of the year trying to educate them only to realize you might as well talk to a vegetable?

#152 BobC on 08.24.15 at 8:55 am

Even a 20% correction won’t effect my living standard or lifestyle. I’m hanging in there. So far it’s
BobC = 0. GT = 1
So why doubt him now?
WTH, it’s going to be my grandkids money and they didn’t earn it.

#153 Jeff in Moose Jaw on 08.24.15 at 9:01 am

I agree with this video because I can relate to it…. ~10min.

“Your Lifestyle Has Already Been Designed”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ufeavz7d0GU

#154 young & foolish on 08.24.15 at 9:07 am

Now you will get to see diversification at work … right?

The Dow was off 8% as of Monday’s opening. Balanced portfolios were essentially flat. This is diversification and balance doing exactly what they should – mitigating losses, just as they will lead to a swifter rebound. — Garth

#155 Llewelyn on 08.24.15 at 9:11 am

One of the concerns that I have expressed on this blog over the past few months is that many investment cheerleaders have create the impression that an average ROI of 7.0% can be achieved in the future because it has been achieved in the past.

I pointed out that the search for yield often persuades investors to part with their cash without looking into basic market fundamentals. In the case of real estate I shared Garth’s concern that purchasing over valued assets with borrowed money solely on the belief that the real estate always increases in value was very, very foolish.

Having said that I observed that many Canadians were encouraged to invest in ETF’s structured around emerging markets solely on the belief that the past growth of these markets will continue in the future. This tendency to chase potential yield and to ignore market fundamentals distorts reality and this distortion is certainly not restricted to real estate.

You may have noticed that I often refer to investing as a ‘confidence game’ and have cautioned that unrealistic expectations can cloud ones judgement. When investors have confidence that a ROI of 7.0% per annum is an achievable target their investment decisions become based on this target. The professionals creating balanced portfolios are forced to incorporate assets with higher risk to balance the low ROI offered by fixed income assets. This is how a market for billions of collateralized debt obligations based on toxic assets became so popular prior to 2008.

Dress any asset up in a nice dress and put on a little make-up and voila instant popularity.

In 2015 conservative assets are sitting at home without a date while emerging markets are competing for homecoming queen. Don’t become overly influenced by all the glam and promises of a juicy ROI.

Sometimes a basket offering a 5.0% ROI based on sound fundamentals is all an investor looking for long-term security really needs.

Past performance is a useful yardstick. It is not a guarantee. The longer we look at trends, the more validity they have. Over five decades financial markets have averaged a 7% return, and real estate about half that. — Garth

#156 The quiet blog dogs need the comments on 08.24.15 at 9:13 am

Bonus tip: stop reading the comments section

No way. Reading the comments enables the Reader to know that he/she is not the GreaterFool.

#157 neo on 08.24.15 at 9:14 am

Garth,

How is that whole China stocks up 100% not to worry meme going? Told you it would be back to 2,000 before the end of 2015. Just a flesh wound right? Nasdaq halted in futures because circuit breakers kicked in after being down 5%. This is going to sail way past a 10% correction. We will see at least 20% like 2011 and QE4 and no rate hike. Great buying opportunity, just not yet.

#158 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 08.24.15 at 9:18 am

#142 Smoking Man on 08.24.15 at 7:49 am
#137 Butch on 08.24.15 at 2:53 am
“Fed Likely to Hold Off on September Rate Increase: Business Economists Survey”
http://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-likely-to-hold-off-on-september-rate-increase-business-economists-survey-1440388860.
Maybe December? 2016? Never.
.. ……
Im going out on a limb here , its high time we test all those changes in Computer systems to see how they handle negative rates.
I read the link, 37% of economist’s think no Sept Rate hike.
100% of Herdoeconomists have been calling that for a while.
This is what bugs me about English.
I read the book.
I will read the book.
Same word , different sound.
See how screwed up it is…
__________________________________________
Try taking an ESL course as you’re new to the planet! Effective communication is paramount to successfully bestowing your thought processes. You have the time now that you’re superannuated!
Klaatu barada nikto

#159 Julia on 08.24.15 at 9:23 am

Difficult as an inexperienced investor to sit our our hands and be patient. With a 15-20 years investment horizon for myself, 8-10 years for RESP, did some buying of ETF. Not watching too closely.

#160 Dup on 08.24.15 at 9:29 am

Looks like the Chinese are purposely triggering the fall in the stock markets so they can buy in at a low point by using their massive pension fund. Temporary blip created to serve them…hope U.S. sees this and anticipates their moves…

#161 Godth on 08.24.15 at 9:36 am

Why the Bear of 2015 Is Different from the Bear of 2008
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.ca/2015/08/why-bear-of-2015-is-different-from-bear.html

“It’s a wonderful accomplishment”

#162 Alfred E. Neuman on 08.24.15 at 9:45 am

Garth, thank you. Fan-tas-tic.

Your 20 points are a read and remember for anyone wishing to enjoy the freedom and choices of retirement.

And there IS only one downside to being retired:
you don’t get the weekends off.

#163 young & foolish on 08.24.15 at 9:46 am

Now is the time a lot of investors will need some hand-holding …. or they’ll be selling into a downturn.

#164 TRT on 08.24.15 at 9:53 am

And someone told me there other day it’s always a good time to buy Canadian banks. Lmao

It’s even better when they are on sale. — Garth

#165 jean on 08.24.15 at 10:00 am

#21 marvuzzo on 08.23.15 at 3:36 pm
Can u live in a stock?

******

Can u eat a house?

#166 CRASH ALERT!!!! on 08.24.15 at 10:00 am

Forget what Garth says.

GET OUT NOW!!!!!!!!!!!

By the time Joe Public fully understands this move, later this week and next, we’ll be talking about 20-30% losses, not 10%. Keep your powder dry and sell now.

Buy back in during the depression we are heading into, around 2017-18 is my guess. Then hold on for a few years at least.

This is #epicfail time. Real estate will be following this down the drain within mere weeks now.

You are the reason market pros make money. — Garth

#167 A Nobody on 08.24.15 at 10:02 am

I appreciate your correction of my comment Garth above.

All I can say is that there is no way I could rest having a significant amount of my wealth with any advisor, invested in markets that are so confusing and subject to such volatility and uncertainty.

I feel a lot better with a building or rental property that I am in full control of.

Just me. I guess everyone will tell me how dumb I am

What is dumb is putting your tail between your legs when knowledge is a few clicks away. — Garth

#168 tkid on 08.24.15 at 10:09 am

Soooo, if one is not selling into the storm, what is the best deal of the day?

#169 Sheane Wallace on 08.24.15 at 10:10 am

Oil bellow 39.
Loonie down 3 % against the Euro, 1% against GBP, 0.5 % against USD.
Equity markets sinking.
Chance of USD rate hike goes down to almost improbable.

#170 dougcasey on 08.24.15 at 10:12 am

Don’t believe any of this. We’re in big trouble and it’s starting right now!

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cm/survive-a-real-currency-collapse

I’ll save you! Just buy my book for $39!! – Doug Casey — Garth

#171 Sheane Wallace on 08.24.15 at 10:21 am

You are the reason market pros make money. — Garth
——————————–
Fear in the air, blood on the street.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/11819812/Black-Monday-live-FTSE-100-China-global-markets.html

Larry Summers: This could be the start of something serious
This morning’s early calls of “don’t panic” are now quickly morphing into: “it’s probably time to panic”.
Former US treasury secretary – who warned the Fed off a September lift-off today – has said today’s sell-off could be a harbinger of more doom to come.

– As in August 1997, 1998, 2007 and 2008 we could be in the early stage of a very serious situation.
– It is far from clear that the next Fed move will be a tightening.

#172 tkid on 08.24.15 at 10:22 am

IT’S NOT FAIR!!!! PFF is practically back to its Friday price … what kind of market crash only lasts a freaking hour???

#173 Hank Greenberg on 08.24.15 at 10:27 am

They are controlling the deep downturn in the U.S., Canada right now because they know a 1,000 points+ drop will feed in more panic selling.

Everywhere else there are 5% to 8.5% stock declines and they are holding it up with 2.5% to 3.5% drops.

China will continue to push down everyone.

“They’? Who is “they’? — Garth

#174 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 08.24.15 at 10:32 am

Perhaps Yellen will flinch, perhaps not. It’s a poker game Smoking Man sit back and just watch for a change. You’re a good poker player you apparently like to challenge God all of the time. Let me ask you, “how’s that working for you?” Try not challenging a power greater than your own limitations. I just sailed back from Chicago on a lake that scares the hell out of me. I don’t scare easily but I am a smart man I know my limitations and respect the things that are greater than myself. You still have issues ………….per your words. God is an evil demented freak…if it wasent for booze I might jump infront of a train just to go punch his teeth out. But the prick has everything figured out….feed smoking man his Jack and buy some time…..Ultimately he knows , we are having words…My issues, my late nephew, the Palestinians, my broke dick..God you cant fk with me….

#175 dougcasey on 08.24.15 at 10:36 am

I’ll save you! Just buy my book for $39!! – Doug Casey — Garth

The point is you were wrong. You said 2008/2009 wouldn’t happen again in our lifetimes. I guess you were talking about the life span of ants, but guess what? It’s 2015 and we’re crashing once again.

The only crash is in your head. But hey, Doug will save you for $39. That’s even more than you pay to read this blog! — Garth

#176 S.Bby on 08.24.15 at 10:41 am

I’m liking the half-off sale this week. It’s about time, I’ve been waiting for this for over a year now.

#177 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 08.24.15 at 10:45 am

#171 Hank Greenberg on 08.24.15 at 10:27 am

They are controlling the deep downturn in the U.S., Canada right now because they know a 1,000 points+ drop will feed in more panic selling.
Everywhere else there are 5% to 8.5% stock declines and they are holding it up with 2.5% to 3.5% drops.
China will continue to push down everyone.

“They’? Who is “they’? — Garth
___________________________________________
Throckmorton Plot
The Black Hand
Operation Himmler
Wannsee Conference,
Lavon affair
The Markovic affair
Watergate
Iran-Contra affair
Freemasons
Bilderberg Group
Aliens………….
Ah ha it all makes sense now. Perhaps its Dr Evil controlling us now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKKHSAE1gIs

#178 Hank Greenberg on 08.24.15 at 10:53 am

They are the U.S. Fed, U.S. Treasury, stock market authorities and other market manipulators that know how to control deep drops in daily falls.

Think whatever you like but we have no had a 10%+ one day drop in what, 15, 20 years if not more than that.

Do not be so naïve. — Garth

#179 roial1 on 08.24.15 at 10:55 am

Caledon not immune from Ashley Madison hack (Headline of Caledon news paper)

Checked your postal. code.???? Just askin’

I just had to look it up and guess what?
the numbers for my postal code. are
Population-65000
pensioners -53%
total spent on Ashley Madison-26529.$
amount per transaction –.49$
Divide and you come up with 56444.
Sooooooooo 86% of the total pop. of the Comox Valley are CHEEP CHEETERS!
(Pension cheques don’t go nearly far enough.)

#180 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 08.24.15 at 10:58 am

Hell I didn’t even have to go east to see the “The Great Fall of China.”

#181 Janet Stop Yellen on 08.24.15 at 11:00 am

Time to pucker up you politically correct protected boyz and grrrls. The audit team has come to town and they’re looking for laundered money.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/cash-buys-and-illicit-money-federal-audit-probes-vancouvers-real-estate-industry-for-money-laundering

And we all know where all the money laundering has been coming from. Is this the next step in finally signing an extradition treaty with ‘the unmentionable politically correct protected country’ ?

#182 45north on 08.24.15 at 11:04 am

Alpine Credits: these ads are popping up on my screen. Who are they?

You are asking about a 1st mortgage refinancing. It is hard to give a specific answer without more info. Is your mortgage already with Alpine Credits or another lender? Alpine Credits has been in business in BC and Alta since 1969. However on their website they say they don’t need to know your income. In Ont this company would be an equity lender.
B lenders deal with people who cannot get financed by a A lender usually because of credit issues or too high debt ratios. Some B lenders will deal with consumer proposals, bad credit etc. They look at the beacon score and this determines the amount they will refinance and the interest rate. They usually tack on an acceptance fee. The broker/mortgage agent may receive some compensation from them but they will usually add a brokerage fee also. The term could be up to 5 years.

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/subprime-thread-comparing-b-lenders-private-mortgages-credit-lines-1336404/

equity lender? not sure what that is?

#183 Daisy Mae on 08.24.15 at 11:05 am

#125: “Passing in the passing (right) lane. If traffic is congested, a few narcissistic soles will figure they should jump to the front of the line using the passing (right) lane…”

**********************

In BC it’s now against the law to cruise in the passing left lane. Guess they’re not listening to the news ’cause it’s not working. And not being enforced….yet. In Kelowna I see drivers using the HOV right lane to pass.

#184 Jeff in Moose Jaw on 08.24.15 at 11:09 am

Heck here is one more video I agree with ~7min.

(music is a bit much, but the message is reasonable)

“John Taylor Gatto – The Purpose Of Schooling ”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eeEWPbTad_Q

#185 PJ Molla on 08.24.15 at 11:11 am

Quite the recovery after all the trillions pumped at the people’s expense to juice markets and recapitalize failing banks and corps.

Can you please call Janet and ask her to start printing again? By the looks of things markets are running out of juice.

#186 Leo Trollstoy on 08.24.15 at 11:11 am

#122 Godth on 08.24.15 at 12:12 am

You should get back to work. Your boss is calling.

I’m busy buyin.

#187 Hank Greenberg on 08.24.15 at 11:14 am

Yes, just like they do not control interest rates, bond yields over the last 10 years. Remember how that was so out there.

Those that waited for interest rates to go up were called naive too but are the big losers now.

#188 Daisy Mae on 08.24.15 at 11:18 am

#130: “And I am not sure I am upset or not about motorcycles that pass on the shoulder. I think it’s probably not a good idea.”

******************

They think they’re clever….but it is stupid and illegal.

#189 Julia on 08.24.15 at 11:19 am

Always interesting weekly insolvency updates.

http://us8.campaign-archive1.com/?u=a3e2039936cbf8a31bda45ab3&id=6e48333259

#190 Randman on 08.24.15 at 11:21 am

Today may not be the day …or tomorrow

But at some point …it will all go to hell…

Anyone who thinks todays action …down 1000 back up 600 …down again …in one day …is “normal” either has a screw loose or an ulterior motive….

This game is rigged..and when the jig is up ..it will feel like this….

“If you’re a distressed seller of an illiquid asset in a market panic, it’s worse than being trapped in a crowded theatre that’s on fire. It’s like being trapped in a crowded theatre that’s on fire, and the only way you can get out is by persuading someone on the outside to swap places with you.”

Sorry about your crash. Better luck next time. — Garth

#191 Daisy Mae on 08.24.15 at 11:22 am

#133: “…ok I have decided not upset about motorcycles that pass in the shoulder but if traffic is stopped and someone swings their door open…”

*********************

A Kelowna cyclist lost her life a couple of weeks ago on a downtown busy street (Bernard) because of just that — a driver parked, opened the door, she slammed into it, and went flying.

#192 westcdn on 08.24.15 at 11:25 am

That was exciting opening in the markets today. I bought a few things today – mainly preferred reset shares and some bpf.un (Shawn and I agree on this one).

I think a lot of weak hands were washed out today. A 0.25% rate increase by the Fed in September is still possible in my mind (50/50) because a wash out has occurred. Next hurdle – October. God only knows what will happen then but I am anticipating a 0.25% rate cut by the BoC before October 31.

September will be ugly for Alberta real estate – maybe October, November and December too. I see from MLS listing (in my hood) a 10% decline from last year in asking prices. It appears to me the average detached home price is being held up by new builds from late 2014 and early 2015 which, I believe, are now being counted as current sales.

I am surprised by how few Alberta residents have left. Could it be that Calgary is being considered home by the residents? Time will tell.

#193 Bob Santarossa on 08.24.15 at 11:35 am

Have to disagree on mutuals.

My TD Mutuals to date (as in today) and since Jan. 1 up 3.8%. Last year (capital and dividends) up 3 and 8%.

With TD you can research about your fund manager, size of fund, management fees, global distribution of fund, past performance of fund and manager etc.

A person needs to do their research before buying mutuals but with the right fund and manager you will do better.

Had I followed your advice on an Stock Market Index ETF, today I would have been very upset with you Garth.

Regardless, you give much more good advice than bad.

#194 Bill on 08.24.15 at 11:36 am

Well I just looked a ye old TSX for Shts and Giggles.
I did mention that last 2 blogs we may crack and cash was king. Near a 3000 point drop since April. Things are fuggly out there. Now my 1.5 cash is now worth closer to 2 beside the bench mark.
I think this may be a longer term problem. As for mentioned the historical charts of the canadian buck against the TSX….one does not go with out the other. Safety first at this point.

#195 pbrasseur on 08.24.15 at 11:37 am

Despite the headlines nobody knows exactly why the stock market behaves a certain way in the short term.

You can only guess, for example the word out there is that China is responsible and maybe there is some of that. But my guess is it’s mainly something else, namely speculators/traders being afraid of the next move from the FED. Otherwise, if this was truly a flight to safety the USD would not be (relatively) weak as today.

Although it is historically slow I don’t think the US recovery is in question here, the market knows it and some of its component are reacting, exactly as they did when the “tapering” began. The outcome is likely to be the same.

In other words this is nothing more than a healthy correction in a bull market that’s bound to continue for years to come.

As for emerging countries they have their problems for sure, they will continue to grow of course but is won’t be as easy as before simply by adding millions of cheap new workers. They will have to learn how to be competitive by innovating and increasing productivity. Not the easiest thing in often corrupted and state controlled environments.

This is how capitalism works and so far the least imperfect implementation is in the US, as long as this is true you’d be a fool to bet against the USA.

#196 For those about to flop... on 08.24.15 at 11:43 am

Why would I pay 39 bucks to read Doug Casey’s book when I can come to the comments section and be mentally scarred for life for free!

#197 Broke Dick on 08.24.15 at 11:46 am

Hey Steve French.
Looks like you had the right idea about sitting on the sidelines whilst you amassed you store of acorns.
Now the hard part, when do you jump in??

And MF, I’m blaming everything bad about the markets on you! You are jinxed!!

#198 Kostas on 08.24.15 at 11:47 am

Thank you! Thank you! Thank you! You gathered all the tips form the blog into one posting! BTW, I observed one thing… people cannot make good financial decisions because of their lack of economic education… I was speaking with a lot of people at work, trying to explain them what might happen in the near future, with the housing market and generally with the economy, and guess what, they just use some “realtor arguments” and they don’t think from an economic perspective.. I recently found this video on the net https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0 and showed it to my co-workers, along with the indices in the Canadian economy and the words “people don’t think how much they owe, they think how much it is going to cost them per month”… now they got frightened!

#199 Godth on 08.24.15 at 11:51 am

#194 pbrasseur on 08.24.15 at 11:37 am

haha, pass the bong buddy.

THEY’RE GONNA NEED A BIGGER BALANCE SHEET
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/theyre-gonna-need-a-bigger-balance-sheet/

#185 Leo Trollstoy on 08.24.15 at 11:11 am

Boss? What’s that?
Keep buying all the way to the bottom. Where’s that?

You actually read or believe this stuff from Stockman? “Anyone who listens to a mainstream media pundit, talking head, or spokes bimbo deserves the reaming they are going to receive. They are paid to lie, obfuscate, spin, and propagandize on behalf of their corporate media executives.” Looked under your bed lately? — Garth

#200 Retired Boomer - WI on 08.24.15 at 11:53 am

Well I got my last two BUY orders filled in this morning plunge!

Both are now making me a bit of money, as their share prices are higher than my buy price.

I love limit orders in that way, thanks to all the panicky sellers, without you this would not be possible!!!

#201 miketheengineer on 08.24.15 at 11:54 am

Garth et al:

I saw this today…read and be aware:

“dropped almost 23% to $400 per 20-foot container in the week ended on August 3, 2015 and the data was obtained from the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index. At that time, at least the crippled Baltic Dry Index was holding its own. That is not longer the case. The BDI is in total free fall. Oil prices are in free fall. Very little is moving. …. According to the BDI product is NOT moving!”

Here is the link:

http://beforeitsnews.com/economy/2015/08/how-will-you-eat-as-the-failed-global-economy-takes-its-last-breath-2754234.html

The BDI has been a largely meaningless indicator for the last five years. — Garth

#202 Ronaldo on 08.24.15 at 11:58 am

163 TRT on 08.24.15 at 9:53 am

” And someone told me there other day it’s always a good time to buy Canadian banks. Lmao

It’s even better when they are on sale. — Garth”

RBC would have to drop another 65% before it reached it’s low in Feb. 2009…….long way to go yet….I suspect that we will see it drop to $65 before it’s done

A long awaited correction…….

This is not 2009. — Garth

#203 Bill on 08.24.15 at 11:59 am

#31 Jill Jenkinson on 08.23.15 at 4:09 pm
Energy is done. Theres nothing to talk about there. Other then treading. Maybe in 5??? Low 30s likely.
Yes Garth VERY good advice but if one can cash up befor one of these its a hellofa boost.
I know an excellent fund / manager that has a 18yr record of 15-20 and most of the fund is in ested in the US. I cant share as its a closed end and a 8% premeium is on it so I would advise buying. Its barily down with all this mess. Ill put in a stink bid and hope some panics. Try and find something that has a heavey US weighting.
Garth is there a source where one could quickly round up some of these? Keepem laughing. My wife loves the pics but that as far as she goes!

#204 Balmuto on 08.24.15 at 12:00 pm

Bonds are doing nothing today. And with all the market turmoil, the CAD 10 yr is only up @ 1% since the start of last week. And spreads have widened so corp returns will be worse. Better than cash, no doubt. But not a very effective hedge given the risk. CAD bonds are particularly dicey as unlike the US we are actually seeing some inflationary pressures which could cause the curve to steepen. I’ll keep my safe portion in money market, thanks.

#205 tkid on 08.24.15 at 12:01 pm

#196 – buy today. You should already know what ETFs you want to buy and in what amounts.

If you had a pair of stones this morning, IVV could be had at $185. It’s currently travelling in the low $190s. Two weeks ago it was in the $210s.

China going down is worrying, but do I believe it will harm the US? No. China’s wealth came from selling cheap plastic rubber ducks to the US. Now if another US bank does a toppler, that’d be different.

#206 Bill on 08.24.15 at 12:03 pm

#194 pbrasseur on 08.24.15 at 11:37 am
Some can forcast but very few well short term.
The stock market is a forwarding seeing pricing mechanism. Its pricing in some stuff now that you cant see. Typically they say 6 months ahead but I disagree with that one.
PS gold shares are holding up the best but still under pressure. They already had their crash.

#207 Bob Santarossa on 08.24.15 at 12:05 pm

#43 BC_Doc, #45 Saint John et al

1) You collect a reduced CPP at age 60 and you calculate that amount to say 80 years of age:

If full CPP at age 65 = $1012.50
2015 pension reduction at age 60 = 34.8%; therefore,
you will collect starting at age 60 = $660.15 = 1012.50 x (1 – 0.348)
Start collecting this amount on Sept. 2015 (assume that is when you turn 60)

Then you calculate calculate a full CPP commencing at age 65 at $1012.50 (start on Sept. 2020 at age 65).

Compare the cumulative numbers for each, e.g., on Jan. 2027 these are the numbers:

Cumulative Reduced CPP = $90,440.55
Cumulative Full CPP = $90,112.50

Basically, you break-even on or about Feb 2027

On Feb 2027 you will be about 71.5 years old.

What the above ignores is interest. At age 65 you will have accumulated in reduced CPP about $31,700 (cumulative amounts as of: Aug 2016 = $7921, Aug 2017 = $13203 and so forth).

You could have take that early CPP money ($31,700) and invested it and earned interest over those 5 years (age 60 to 65). This means that the break-even date will be pushed back to your late 70s.

The better the return you can get on those 5 years of early CPP, the farther out in time will be the break-even date.

Average Canadian Life Span = 81.24 years.

Garth’s rule of thumb is subject to how good a return you can get for those 5 years of early CPP.

If you wait until 2016 the reduction will be greater (36%).

#208 Confused millenial on 08.24.15 at 12:06 pm

>This is not 2009. — Garth

Well, DOW dropped 1000 points in a few minutes, so it’s even worse than 2009 :/

#202 Bill on 08.24.15 at 11:59 am

These pics come from https://www.reddit.com/r/aww or funny or pics.

#209 Bob Santarossa on 08.24.15 at 12:07 pm

Sorry, break even in 2028, my bad. But you get the gist of the calculation.

#210 Godth on 08.24.15 at 12:15 pm

You actually read or believe this stuff from Stockman? “Anyone who listens to a mainstream media pundit, talking head, or spokes bimbo deserves the reaming they are going to receive. They are paid to lie, obfuscate, spin, and propagandize on behalf of their corporate media executives.” Looked under your bed lately? — Garth

That wasn’t Stockman, it’s just posted on his blog. I believe everything realtors say too. I like to sleep on the floor as there’s less distance to fall and I know nothing’s hiding under me. I took all the doors off the closets too, just to be safe.

#211 bdy sktrn on 08.24.15 at 12:17 pm

Wharton’s Siegel: We’re going to test, possibly break this morning’s lows

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/24/whartons-siegel-were-going-to-test-possibly-break-this-mornings-lows.html

#212 young & foolish on 08.24.15 at 12:19 pm

“Loonie down 3 % against the Euro … ”

Why is this happening ???

#213 Steerage Bilge on 08.24.15 at 12:22 pm

Trump’s on top of it.

https://instagram.com/p/6xT08ZGhQc/

#214 Help... on 08.24.15 at 12:26 pm

One thing I don’t understand, is the drop in share value for a preferred etf like CPD. It has now dropped over 20% in a year. However, there has not been a corresponding 20% rise in dividend yield. If there has not been a ton of rate resets lower, what is it?

Educate me..

#215 cramar on 08.24.15 at 12:30 pm

WOW! For anyone with the ballz to do it, what a buying opportunity! For example, AAPL hit an open low of $92 and is now trading 2% up on the day. Call options would have been the play for the savvy. I wasn’t fast or sharp enough.

I firmly believe that the extreme volatility will only reinforce the average view that the stock market is nothing more than a casino and best avoided. Plus reinforce their belief that the only safe and secure investment is good ol’ Real Estate!

#216 to_be_frank on 08.24.15 at 12:34 pm

#141 Mike – Yes, you understood my point and your numbers are correct. Bear in mind that these are pre-tax numbers we are comparing. If the tax rate you pay on CPP benefits is constant over your life then the after-tax income is still in the same proportion. However, if you think you may be paying more tax in future years (Garth has suggested that demographics may result in that outcome) then the after-tax value of the increased cash flows which are coming later would be reduced. That would reduce the advantage of waiting. If you are better educated or have a higher income than the average Canadian, your life expectancy is longer than the average quoted in my source, which increases the advantage of waiting. Last consideration – if you don’t need the money and can invest it, and think you can make a return higher than inflation, that increases the effective value of the earlier (reduced) cash flows due to compounding, reducing the advantage of waiting. In my own case, I am 59 in and will delay taking CPP until later, maybe 70 unless my health deteriorates or I see the writing on the wall for substantial tax increases going forward.

#217 JacqueShellacque on 08.24.15 at 12:35 pm

Anyone else see the story about the couple who bought in Toronto in ’63 for 17,000 and sold for 850,000? The house horny would use this as proof that “houses always go up”, but a quick Google search shows that since 1963 the S&P 500 has gone up 10.29% per year. A compound interest calculator would show that 17 grand invested with dividends plowed back over 50 years at that rate would be worth 2.2 mil today.

#218 Chris in Nanaimo on 08.24.15 at 12:40 pm

Damn! Can’t decide what to buy…..

#219 young & foolish on 08.24.15 at 12:49 pm

“You could have take that early CPP money ($31,700) and invested it and earned interest over those 5 years (age 60 to 65). This means that the break-even date will be pushed back to your late 70s.”

If you are still working, then half of that 31K will be taxed away as income.

Wrong. Check the tax tables. — Garth

#220 Broke Dick on 08.24.15 at 12:50 pm

#216 JacqueShellacque on 08.24.15 at 12:35 pm
Anyone else see the story about the couple who bought in Toronto in ’63 for 17,000 and sold for 850,000? The house horny would use this as proof that “houses always go up”, but a quick Google search shows that since 1963 the S&P 500 has gone up 10.29% per year. A compound interest calculator would show that 17 grand invested with dividends plowed back over 50 years at that rate would be worth 2.2 mil today.
===========================
The 1.4 M difference is what they saved on rent, fully invested. lol

#221 Admirer on 08.24.15 at 12:52 pm

JacqueShellacque #216

“A compound interest calculator would show that 17 grand invested with dividends plowed back over 50 years at that rate would be worth 2.2 mil today.”
——————-
But you have to discount the amount that they would have had to pay to rent (less the costs associated with homeownership) from that amount. The net would be a lot less than $2.2 million. But they would probably still be slightly ahead financially if they invested the money.

But if they raised a family in a stable neighborhood, what’s that worth?

#222 Mike T. on 08.24.15 at 12:53 pm

WELP

‘From Barclays:

Federal Reserve: First rate hike in March 2016 as financial volatility amid uncertainty in EM pushes out our call’

man made rules change
hope you did not ‘plan’ for a rate hike this fall

Law of Balance

when a system in the Universe is pushed out of balance, it will naturally return to balance

always and forever

the US changed its tax code more than 500 times in 2014

#223 Steerage Bilge on 08.24.15 at 1:00 pm

#206 Bob Santarossa on 08.24.15 at 12:05 pm

#43 BC_Doc, #45 Saint John et al

1) You collect a reduced CPP at age 60 and you calculate that amount to say 80 years of age:

If full CPP at age 65 = $1012.50
2015 pension reduction at age 60 = 34.8%; therefore,
you will collect starting at age 60 = $660.15 = 1012.50 x (1 – 0.348)
Start collecting this amount on Sept. 2015 (assume that is when you turn 60)

Then you calculate calculate a full CPP commencing at age 65 at $1012.50 (start on Sept. 2020 at age 65).

Compare the cumulative numbers for each, e.g., on Jan. 2027 these are the numbers:

Cumulative Reduced CPP = $90,440.55
Cumulative Full CPP = $90,112.50

Basically, you break-even on or about Feb 2027

On Feb 2027 you will be about 71.5 years old.

What the above ignores is interest. At age 65 you will have accumulated in reduced CPP about $31,700 (cumulative amounts as of: Aug 2016 = $7921, Aug 2017 = $13203 and so forth).

You could have take that early CPP money ($31,700) and invested it and earned interest over those 5 years (age 60 to 65). This means that the break-even date will be pushed back to your late 70s.

The better the return you can get on those 5 years of early CPP, the farther out in time will be the break-even date.

Average Canadian Life Span = 81.24 years.

Garth’s rule of thumb is subject to how good a return you can get for those 5 years of early CPP.

If you wait until 2016 the reduction will be greater (36%).
———————————-
Yeah, it’s a very simple calculation. If you invest it and get a good return, despite the clawback, you can kick the cross-over date quite far out.

If ya don’t invest it (and most probably won’t!), it’s not as far out, but still given actuarial statistics it becomes attractive to take it early.

#224 Admirer on 08.24.15 at 1:05 pm

#216

You would also have to deduct the income and capital gains taxes from the investment. No capital gains on the home. So, probably it’s a wash which one did better. I’m not sure if real estate will perform the same over the next 50 years like it’s done over the past 50.

I doubt it’s going to perform as strong over the next 10 though.

#225 Barry Lainof on 08.24.15 at 1:07 pm

“Markets rise over time more than they fall by a large factor. A 500-point gain is never on Page One of the newspaper. A 500-point decline always is. — Garth”

Go back to Q4 2008 for the 500-point gains and losses you refer to. Note the these large moves were on the “front page” daily. Not suggesting this is a repeat of 2008, just saying the “front page” concerns were similar.

#226 cramar on 08.24.15 at 1:19 pm

#206 Bob Santarossa on 08.24.15 at 12:05 pm

————–

There are a couple of real-world issues that should be noted beyond just the math involved.

a) The average person collecting CPP early will not be investing the money (blog dogs excepted), but rather using it for living expenses or consumer spending.

b) If the average person lives into their 70s then 80s and ends up in a retirement home, the extra CPP obtained from waiting until 65 would be thankfully needed to help pay for that retirement living.

#227 Retired Boomer - WI on 08.24.15 at 1:23 pm

Doug Casey??? Sounds like the Canuck equivalent of Porter Standbury. Yeah, read his book. Suggests you buy gold and precious metals…but also ETF’s and good dividend paying stocks?

In other words… a BALANCED PORTFOLIO people!!

Nothing really new under the sun is there? When people get too strung out on credit, credit shrinks. When the Chinese get too strung out on stock markets, stocks contract. When people get stupid, does stupid contract?

Garth might have to answer that one, it might be over my (retired) pay grade… Hey, the market recovered 80% of it’s earlier loss – How we doing NOW???

#228 Retired Boomer - WI on 08.24.15 at 1:25 pm

oops… typo Porter Stansberry…..

sorry I got it wrong…. investments I got RIGHT!!!

#229 Same Babblemaster on 08.24.15 at 1:28 pm

#129 Frank

“Congratulations. Make sure you tell more people about your charitable giving, the sick kids love it!”

——————————————————

No need for me to tell others. Just as there is no need for you to tell others how the price of oil “PALES” in comparison to an “INNOCENT” animal. I find you characters that are up in arms over Cecil the Lion, and yet are silent over human suffering, to be very strange. BTW, I had a cat for over 21 years and finally decided to have him put down humanely last December as he no longer had any quality of life. He accidentally came into our lives and I always liked him fine, but I kept proper perspective and didn’t ever confuse him for a human child.

#230 For those about to flop... on 08.24.15 at 1:29 pm

I wonder how the couple who bought the 1970’s era house around the corner from me for 1.3million, 200 thousand over asking are feeling today?
Seems like a reasonable investment considering I live on a nondescript east Van St. With no reason this house going for over 400,000 except for the fact that people have lost their minds.
It’s true I have lost some gains in the market the last couple of days but nowhere near the losses that are going to be felt by the average couple buying the average house on the average street.
Sure the Dow will get all the headlines,but I know where the real madness is.

#231 crossbordershopper on 08.24.15 at 1:31 pm

I am so happy I don’t have any money in the market since I don’t have any money so I don’t have to worry about not sleeping at night.
stress will kill you, so stay poor, you don’t have to worry about loosing anything, just wait every month for the government cheque.
and if they don’t send it, well, we will go out and take it, its that simple, so go out and work hard, stress out etc.
people are at home making sure you do that for us, and a great big thank you for that.

#232 Steerage Bilge on 08.24.15 at 1:31 pm

Talk about a non-event. The apocalyptic bunker whack-jobs will be saddened.

#233 OXI in GREECE !! on 08.24.15 at 1:36 pm

“…..there will be no repeat of the 2008 financial crisis…..”

You are quite correct. — Garth

#234 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 08.24.15 at 1:37 pm

#216 JacqueShellacque on 08.24.15 at 12:35 pm

Anyone else see the story about the couple who bought in Toronto in ’63 for 17,000 and sold for 850,000? The house horny would use this as proof that “houses always go up”, but a quick Google search shows that since 1963 the S&P 500 has gone up 10.29% per year. A compound interest calculator would show that 17 grand invested with dividends plowed back over 50 years at that rate would be worth 2.2 mil today.
_____________________________________________
For the average person barely pulling in four figures let alone five, single wage earner, two or more children, paying off a mortgage was more important back in the day. Jobs were for life back then, pensions, and peace of mind for most coming out of the crash of 29. They did not ever want to be booted to the street again. Irrelevant drivel to assume that they would have gone the investment path. Its like comparing Apples to Durian.

#235 Ronaldo on 08.24.15 at 1:38 pm

#225 Cramer

”{b) If the average person lives into their 70s then 80s and ends up in a retirement home, the extra CPP obtained from waiting until 65 would be thankfully needed to help pay for that retirement living.”

Chances are very good that when they end up in the retirement home and have nothing, the gov will come up with the shortfall. The guy in the next room with all the money will pay the full amount.

#236 Ronaldo on 08.24.15 at 1:41 pm

#224 Barry Lainoff

”Go back to Q4 2008 for the 500-point gains and losses you refer to. Note the these large moves were on the “front page” daily. Not suggesting this is a repeat of 2008, just saying the “front page” concerns were similar.”

Just go back a couple years when the TSX was stuck in a range of around 12500. It was very common to have 300 point swings in intraday trading and ending up even at end of day. That never it the news either.

#237 Joe2.0 on 08.24.15 at 2:14 pm

Bought FAZ a while back, shorts the Russel 1000.
Made 25% on my money in a month.
And sold.

#238 miketheengineer on 08.24.15 at 2:15 pm

Garth et al:

Another good one:

“Stock up on canned food for stock market crash, warns former Gordon Brown adviser”

Here is the link:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/stock-up-on-canned-food-for-stock-market-crash-warns-former-gordon-brown-advisor-10469509.html

#239 family beagle on 08.24.15 at 2:19 pm

604 here, where your ecomical todo list has no effect. If a dog takes a crap on the boulevard west of Pitt River Bridge, that crap is up 6% by 4:00pm. World uber mega wealthy flocking here to buy up safe zones. Stars, entrepreneurs, leading scientists, diplomats, all converging for big west coast kumbiya. Had a couple here just this morning from Deluth, Minn, saying people from the midwest loading fifth wheels and uhauls, coming to 604 to witness our wall sconce arragements, engineered hardwood flooring, and participate in granite coffee bar elbow chat. UPS vans scurry the streets delivering Amazon sliced turkey, steaming deli quinoa, and Ebay scotch. I have 3 (three) (III) jobs: cat whisperer to west end same sex reality couples; shoe scout at Oakridge mall; toy unboxer for adult children of aristocracy. Booming! Behold the vista: cranes, dumptrucks, work crews, skytrains, towers, condos and new builds flying off the shelf. Starbucks opening four steam boutiques per intersection, Dollarama Estates unveiled, new Prancing Spirit Hover Buses, free cheese market samples, patio lanterns sold out, yoga daze weekly yogaree and juice jimjam lattee condo cheese money parties on every block. Yes, as the rest of the province smolders in cinder crisp contentment, good ol’ 604 remains oblivious and without regard to the petty problems of outliers. Ask anyone ’round here of news from NY, London or Hong Kong, they smirk and say, “who?” I don’t think I’ve heard the words, “L A” in six months. Seattle, what? Isn’t that near Bellisfair Mall? Texas, a condition programmers get? Calgary… nice place to hear the call of the lonesome urban crude loon. Edmonton… Hehe isn’t that on the same latitude as Minsk? Winnipeg, also home of the ‘frosty bugger’. Saskatoon, a gas up on route to Medicine Hat. East Coast/Maritimes, gather round and sing songs about cod, oh boy. Montreal, if you like trees with wires on them. And Toronto, the big stink, the grand blip, the pocket pool capital of North America…whatever.

Ottawa? Couldn’t even point to it on a map.

As I stand on Burrard and Georgia, I take a selfie of my hat with the engines of paradise cranking in the background. That hat will be at online auction before noon PST, an actual souvenir of Vancouver, a collectible authenticated, having touched our air and gleaming with the personna of one of its real, live citizenry. $200 US for the ballcap, buyer pays shipping. And you know that some rich snot will snap it on his/ her parental paid visa, whilst begging mommy and daddy to buy her/him a barbie party condo in Vancouver, tooOooo, ’cause Tikrisha’s dad bought her one! (I sold my closet of ripped faded Levis in 1996 to Japanese school kids visiting Stanley Park for a small fortune and reinvested in plastic floral arrangements for dental office lobbies, smart!) You could have bought a 1500 sq ft rancher on Kingsway for 2k in 1906, but nooooo, you thought this was a back water bush league town with a one runway airport and some dudes playing bongos downtown. Well, that’s exactly what the world’s SUPER WEALTHY wanted. So there. 604 RE, the new gold investment standard. My shoes gained 8% thumbing this.

#240 Conrad on 08.24.15 at 2:24 pm

I stopped reading the comments long ago. Just because someone wrote something on a website doesnt mean that you should belief it and link to it!

yes the world is going to end, when the SUN goes Super Nova!

#241 Millmech on 08.24.15 at 2:27 pm

#234 Ronaldo
So true when a family member was in the retirement home the cost was $4200/mth because of pension and rrsps,best friends dad on same floor same room $800/mth because that was all he had.The retirement home took 80% of income for care so the more you had the more you paid.Not complaining they took great care of them but you may not be leaving much to your heirs after 8-12 years of care at $50,000/yr.

#242 Bill on 08.24.15 at 2:27 pm

Do posts just go missing here on a regular basis? Or does Garth just delete them if he does not like them!?
Now anyone else want to doubt me including Garth?
You mention 7% was just a correction…
This is NOT a jump back in market…Sell the rallies like recommended on the Shanghai…We are in a bear market now…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p55284739162&a=421760562&listNum=1

We are nowhere near a bear market. Some of your alarmist, factually-incorrect posts were not published. Try harder. — Garth

#243 BobC on 08.24.15 at 2:41 pm

Wouldn’t an inverse fund like GLL for gold be very safe?

#244 Steerage Bilge on 08.24.15 at 2:50 pm

#239 Conrad on 08.24.15 at 2:24 pm

I stopped reading the comments long ago. Just because someone wrote something on a website doesnt mean that you should belief it and link to it!

yes the world is going to end, when the SUN goes Super Nova!
—————————
Actually our sun doesn’t have enough mass to go supernova. But anyways.

#245 Steerage Bilge on 08.24.15 at 2:58 pm

#240 Millmech on 08.24.15 at 2:27 pm

#234 Ronaldo
So true when a family member was in the retirement home the cost was $4200/mth because of pension and rrsps,best friends dad on same floor same room $800/mth because that was all he had.The retirement home took 80% of income for care so the more you had the more you paid.Not complaining they took great care of them but you may not be leaving much to your heirs after 8-12 years of care at $50,000/yr.
—————————————–
Yup, that’s it. It’s best to plan to run out of money just before serious drooling takes over!!

But yeah my elderly mother with dementia received amazing care in exchange for her OAS/CPP basically.

#246 bdy sktrn on 08.24.15 at 3:05 pm

#231 Steerage Bilge on 08.24.15 at 1:31 pm
Talk about a non-event. The apocalyptic bunker whack-jobs will be saddened.
————————
still a non event?

#247 Bill on 08.24.15 at 3:14 pm

As for my post on real estate…being blowing away by the stock market. People fail to mention that the $17,000 would have NEVER bought the house outright. Do your math with 20% of that in the stock market….That’s what normal people put down. Leverage is what helps a person gain good equity as long as you don’t buy into some stupid bubble!
You also CANNOT buy the S&P and assume to just ride the DIV. for decades..
Many companies fail or change in time. Your always dancing…That said I’m not buying any real estate in this country…

#248 Smoking Man on 08.24.15 at 3:15 pm

#173 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 08.24.15 at 10:32 am
Perhaps Yellen will flinch, perhaps not. It’s a poker game Smoking Man sit back and just watch for a change. You’re a good poker player you apparently like to challenge God all of the time. Let me ask you, “how’s that working for you?” Try not challenging a power greater than your own limitations. I just sailed back from Chicago on a lake that scares the hell out of me. I don’t scare easily but I am a smart man I know my limitations and respect the things that are greater than myself. You still have issues ………….per your words. God is an evil demented freak…if it wasent for booze I might jump infront of a train just to go punch his teeth out. But the prick has everything figured out….feed smoking man his Jack and buy some time…..Ultimately he knows , we are having words…My issues, my late nephew, the Palestinians, my broke dick..God you cant fk with me….
…….

World is in too much debt, govts and individuals. Either central banks print up a tones of 100 dollar bills and drop em from helicopters so regular folks start spending again, or let the entire shit show collapse…

Im thinking a nice distraction is due, ww3 should solve alot off issues.

Reset the game of monopoly even faster…

#249 Steerage Bilge on 08.24.15 at 3:24 pm

#245 bdy sktrn on 08.24.15 at 3:05 pm

#231 Steerage Bilge on 08.24.15 at 1:31 pm
Talk about a non-event. The apocalyptic bunker whack-jobs will be saddened.
————————
still a non event?
———————————
Instead of the +50% gains from the past few years.. they are sitting at 45%. So yeah.

It’s gonna be a good time for shopping.

#250 #216 JacqueShellacque Rebuke on 08.24.15 at 3:32 pm

Sorry JacqueShellacque – but if one uses a better (more accurate) shellacque stripper available here:

http://moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm

One will see that a dollar invested on Jan 1, 1963 in S&P500 will grow to $21.06 by the end of 2014 (adjusted for inflation and dividends) or the $17,000 will be only $358,020 at the end of 2014!

#251 Steady Eddie on 08.24.15 at 3:42 pm

US Market is the best looking horse in the glue factory… however it’s time will come. Everything else will crash around it and then it too when finally it will give up the ghost. Nothing news worthy until Gold hits a low of $600-800.. Keep sleeping. US will correct 10% it’s normal, it’s bullish for US.. unload non US junk and load up on Uncle Sam fire sale.

#252 kommykim on 08.24.15 at 3:43 pm

RE: #130 nonplused on 08.24.15 at 1:05 am
And I am not sure I am upset or not about motorcycles that pass on the shoulder. I think it’s probably not a good idea

Definitely not a good idea because most motorists don’t check their right hand mirror when turning right. Add in those that don’t signal at all and you have another injured/dead motorcyclist.

#253 kommykim on 08.24.15 at 3:48 pm

RE: #136 to_be_frank on 08.24.15 at 1:53 am
Garth – I like all of your points of advice above except that I disagree with “Take CPP @ 60 (no exceptions)” which several other commenters have questioned

You also have to take in to consideration the CONs moving goalposts AGAIN while you delay your retirement. I wouldn’t chance it.

#254 Waterloo Resident on 08.24.15 at 3:52 pm

So we see the stock market crashing (hope its just temporary),

and we hear of the Chinese housing bubble crashing,

but when are we going to start seeing the Canadian housing market start to crash ?

#255 kommykim on 08.24.15 at 4:00 pm

RE: #174 dougcasey on 08.24.15 at 10:36 am
The point is you were wrong. You said 2008/2009 wouldn’t happen again in our lifetimes. I guess you were talking about the life span of ants, but guess what? It’s 2015 and we’re crashing once again

So far, it’s no worse than the 2011 “crash”.

#256 A nobody on 08.24.15 at 4:02 pm

at 12:30 pm
WOW! For anyone with the ballz to do it, what a buying opportunity! For example, AAPL hit an open low of $92 and is now trading 2% up on the day. Call options would have been the play for the savvy. I wasn’t fast or sharp enough.

I firmly believe that the extreme volatility will only reinforce the average view that the stock market is nothing more than a casino and best avoided. Plus reinforce their belief that the only safe and secure investment is good ol’ Real Estate!

Couldn’t agree with you more Cramer. I sure feel
better with my real estate holdings than anything I could in stock markets

#257 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 08.24.15 at 4:03 pm

#247 Smoking Man on 08.24.15 at 3:15 pm

#173 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 08.24.15 at 10:32 am
Perhaps Yellen will flinch, perhaps not. It’s a poker game Smoking Man sit back and just watch for a change. You’re a good poker player you apparently like to challenge God all of the time. Let me ask you, “how’s that working for you?” Try not challenging a power greater than your own limitations. I just sailed back from Chicago on a lake that scares the hell out of me. I don’t scare easily but I am a smart man I know my limitations and respect the things that are greater than myself. You still have issues ………….per your words. God is an evil demented freak…if it wasent for booze I might jump infront of a train just to go punch his teeth out. But the prick has everything figured out….feed smoking man his Jack and buy some time…..Ultimately he knows , we are having words…My issues, my late nephew, the Palestinians, my broke dick..God you cant fk with me….
……………………………………..
World is in too much debt, govts and individuals. Either central banks print up a tones of 100 dollar bills and drop em from helicopters so regular folks start spending again, or let the entire shit show collapse…
Im thinking a nice distraction is due, ww3 should solve alot off issues.
Reset the game of monopoly even faster…
__________________________________________
WWIII is closer than you may think! Inside word is somebody has major issues with his brain.
His personality profile indicates the “big six” constellation of personality disorders: sadistic, antisocial, paranoid, narcissistic, schizoid, and schizotypal. The hand of doom is on the button!
Unfortunately it will be localized but have great habitation and economic impact to last for years!

#258 gut check on 08.24.15 at 4:15 pm

#231 Steerage Bilge on 08.24.15 at 1:31 pm
Talk about a non-event. The apocalyptic bunker whack-jobs will be saddened.

_______________________

Is it really ‘whack-job’ with an ‘h?’ I think it looks odd that way. Wack-job is better I think. You might want to look into it, you know, for the next time you want to insult complete strangers from the safety of your living room.. or the bus.. or the girlie lounge or wherever it is that you sit when you anonymously spew.

What was the non-event you are speaking of, anyway? looks like you posted during the little rally on the markets.

cute. :) I like your optimism.

#259 #231 Steerage Bilge rebuke on 08.24.15 at 4:23 pm

“Talk about a non-event. The apocalyptic bunker whack-jobs will be saddened.”

Non-event???

http://www.investing.com/indices/major-indices

S&P500 under 1900
DJI under 16000
Nasdaq around 4500
TSX around 13000
DAX under 10000
Nikkei225 around 18500

And the insiders:
http://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx?or=-10&tv=100000&tc=7&o=-transactionValue

#260 TRT on 08.24.15 at 4:23 pm

at 12:30 pm
WOW! For anyone with the ballz to do it, what a buying opportunity! For example, AAPL hit an open low of $92 and is now trading 2% up on the day. Call options would have been the play for the savvy. I wasn’t fast or sharp enough.

I firmly believe that the extreme volatility will only reinforce the average view that the stock market is nothing more than a casino and best avoided. Plus reinforce their belief that the only safe and secure investment is good ol’ Real Estate!

Couldn’t agree with you more Cramer. I sure feel
better with my real estate holdings than anything I could in stock markets

—————————————————————

Do you even know how markets work?

Its not like you can just put in a market order and grab it at $92. Not that simple son.

#261 TRT on 08.24.15 at 4:25 pm

Any one know the margin details on the Shanghai/Shenzen markets? will foretell the direction tonite.

#262 JP on 08.24.15 at 4:42 pm

It is easy for money managers to tell people to “chill” when they get paid to play with money regardless of how the market actually performs. Of course, it is better for business to guess correctly, but at the end of the day you’re just making an (educated) guess. Here’s a tip, don’t gamble with money you cannot afford to lose.

#263 Elias on 08.24.15 at 4:49 pm

Interesting article. Fantastic timing given the crazy market today!

#264 Smoking Man on 08.24.15 at 4:50 pm

#256 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 08.24.15 at 4:03 pm
#247 Smoking Man on 08.24.15 at 3:15 pm

#173 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 08.24.15 at 10:32 am
Perhaps Yellen will flinch, perhaps not. It’s a poker game Smoking Man sit back and just watch for a change. You’re a good poker player you apparently like to challenge God all of the time. Let me ask you, “how’s that working for you?” Try not challenging a power greater than your own limitations. I just sailed back from Chicago on a lake that scares the hell out of me. I don’t scare easily but I am a smart man I know my limitations and respect the things that are greater than myself. You still have issues ………….per your words. God is an evil demented freak…if it wasent for booze I might jump infront of a train just to go punch his teeth out. But the prick has everything figured out….feed smoking man his Jack and buy some time…..Ultimately he knows , we are having words…My issues, my late nephew, the Palestinians, my broke dick..God you cant fk with me….
……………………………………..
World is in too much debt, govts and individuals. Either central banks print up a tones of 100 dollar bills and drop em from helicopters so regular folks start spending again, or let the entire shit show collapse…
Im thinking a nice distraction is due, ww3 should solve alot off issues.
Reset the game of monopoly even faster…
__________________________________________
WWIII is closer than you may think! Inside word is somebody has major issues with his brain.
His personality profile indicates the “big six” constellation of personality disorders: sadistic, antisocial, paranoid, narcissistic, schizoid, and schizotypal. The hand of doom is on the button!
Unfortunately it will be localized but have great habitation and economic impact to last for years!
……..

Lets see..

Obumer
Nutandyahoo.
Putine

Six disorders go too??

Ya, something is going to give..

#265 Steerage Bilge on 08.24.15 at 4:52 pm

#257 gut check on 08.24.15 at 4:15 pm

#231 Steerage Bilge on 08.24.15 at 1:31 pm
Talk about a non-event. The apocalyptic bunker whack-jobs will be saddened.

_______________________

Is it really ‘whack-job’ with an ‘h?’ I think it looks odd that way. Wack-job is better I think. You might want to look into it, you know, for the next time you want to insult complete strangers from the safety of your living room.. or the bus.. or the girlie lounge or wherever it is that you sit when you anonymously spew.

What was the non-event you are speaking of, anyway? looks like you posted during the little rally on the markets.

cute. :) I like your optimism.

——————————-
You were insulted that easily!. Wow, damn I should have actually tried.
Ok, actually it was an event from which many will make some good $$ down the line – bigger tips for the girlie lounge.

Optimism of course, what else is there.

#266 Leo Trollstoy on 08.24.15 at 4:52 pm

You actually read or believe this stuff from Stockman?

Only poor people believe that stuff.

The rich are too busy buying stuff.

#267 Canadian on 08.24.15 at 5:02 pm

#230 crossbordershopper on 08.24.15 at 1:31 pm

More like ndpvoter not crossbordershopper

#268 A Nobody on 08.24.15 at 5:05 pm

Honestly, I’m not to worried about what stock markets are doing or what my small portfolio looks like because my portfolio is small relative to my net worth as a total but I find it hard to believe that people on this site that talk about their accounts are still doing well.

If it were me I would just say the HELL with the markets.

I’m pretty sure I can still find a triplex with good yield characteristics even in the GTA.

If not here , then Florida property is still a bargain relative to what you can get for rent.

#269 West Texas Funster on 08.24.15 at 5:08 pm

Gotta love it…Dow opens down 1200…and bounces like a yo yo to stop at minus 700…oh the rout…the pain…the puking. The TSX was much the same….drunken ‘sell at market’ orders lit up the Level 2 screens like a paintball fight in a crowded bar. Now the losses are real….many will sell the rest to ‘cash out’…at any cost. As in 08’…these fools will be out of the market licking their wounds for several years.

Tomorrow will be as bad and maybe worse….DOW futures are already off another 700++ points and the rabbits in Asian markets have 4 hours before they’re set to stampede. Asia will panic again because the margin debt over there is just stupendous and ‘grey banks’ have been lending at exorbitant rates. There is a very real chance that China will drag the DOW down another 2000 points before the week is out.

The Federal Government has announced an audit of all cash and foreign real estate transaction…stating that the reporting from the real estate agents, industry and media ‘doesn’t match the anecdotal reports and complaints. I said it a long time ago…but now it’s ever more prescient due to the crash….many money laundering foreign nationals will feel the heat…don’t think the Canadian government and the Government of China are not cooperating in this…China has been complaining long and hard about getting their crooks back… I know for a fact that many people have been calling in to the CRA and complaining of ‘dissapearing neighbors…who buy four million dollar houses on the block then ‘poof’.

I did not foresee the Feds threatening jail time for Board members and real estate agents. I suppose this is a good tactic….the ones who want to avoid jail time will ‘truth up’ and roll over on their ‘clients’….to stay out of jail…and avoid the massive fines that are sure to be levied under FIN TRAC.

#270 Doug in London on 08.24.15 at 5:12 pm

Has anyone checked the stock markets lately? All I can say is: WOW, LOOK AT ALL THE AMAZING BOXING WEEK BLOW OFF CLEAR OUT THE INVENTORY DIRT CHEAP SALES!!!!!!!! I don’t know how ANYONE could be negative about this great awesome buying opportunity.

#271 Bill on 08.24.15 at 5:17 pm

Love all your input Garth!
I not smoking the all clear stuff though. When things get whacked like this globally you need to be defensive. Rates are already at the bottom…No Fed fuel left!!?
We should bounce I would think and then slide a bit more..

#272 Steerage Bilge on 08.24.15 at 5:29 pm

#258 #231 Steerage Bilge rebuke on 08.24.15 at 4:23 pm

“Talk about a non-event. The apocalyptic bunker whack-jobs will be saddened.”

Non-event???

http://www.investing.com/indices/major-indices

S&P500 under 1900
DJI under 16000
Nasdaq around 4500
TSX around 13000
DAX under 10000
Nikkei225 around 18500

And the insiders:
http://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx?or=-10&tv=100000&tc=7&o=-transactionValue
——————————
Ok, an event from which to make $$.

#273 DisgustMadeMePost on 08.24.15 at 5:48 pm

#238 family beagle on 08.24.15 at 2:19 pm

That was funny. Yup, it’s nuts in the 604.

I’ve clearly been underestimating recreational drug use in this town.

…….

Re CPP, I’m 5 years from 60. Have never thought about retirement really. What happens to CPP. if you still want to work?

#274 Joeyjojo on 08.24.15 at 7:55 pm

Love your blog, but I think we’re in the midst of a nasty and disorderly move downwards. Thousands of points to be lost on the Dow in the weeks and months ahead unfortunately.

#275 Maxwell C. on 08.24.15 at 8:57 pm

Why should one take one’s CPP at 60, no exceptions? Please explain the Math behind this?

Death. — Garth

#276 Bill on 08.24.15 at 11:12 pm

If you take it st 60 you may be dead at 63 lol. No gaurantees in life. Maybe they shuffle to 65? If you are waiting for that piddling CPP god help us!?
Garth we have never had more continuous stupid corrections or crashes as I prefer in such short conections in history. Markets surprise snd thsts whst they do. Si msny have bought abd hsbd been crushed. Conditioned to buy the dips and indeed this would be fine if it surprised. I wasnt born yesterday it was a few days before. .lol SURPRISE Garth i like you but a balanced port it what RBC crooks pump. Its a cookie cutter deal. My wife works there. .

#277 maxx on 08.24.15 at 11:38 pm

#139 Apocalypse2015 on 08.24.15 at 7:26 am

“(Maybe they will buy your delisted Nortel and Bre-X shares too – worth a try! Throw in some losing 649 tickets, why not!?)”

Now THAT was funny! Thanks for the belly laugh…..

#278 Bill on 08.25.15 at 12:12 pm

Sorry about the typos above. Need a new hand set!
This was timely!
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/eurodollar_cot_says_ugly_drop_is_still_ahead_of_us/

#279 Bill on 08.25.15 at 1:00 pm

Garth
Your the only free guy out there that has a brain.
Us sheeple canucks need help from this ponzi scheme Gov.
I should have stuck too my commecial real estate id be alot better off and probably live longer.
Cheers

#280 jess on 08.25.15 at 5:22 pm

check out this advice:

Two Tampa Bay area consultants agree to federal plea deal in offshore tax shelter case
Patty Ryan, Times Staff Writer Friday, August 7, 2015 6:08pm

http://www.tampabay.com/news/courts/criminal/two-tampa-bay-area-consultants-agree-to-federal-plea-deal-in-offshore-tax/2240499
Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Tampa Business Executives Indicted For Promoting Fraudulent Tax Scheme
http://www.justice.gov/usao-mdfl/pr/tampa-business-executives-indicted-promoting-fraudulent-tax-scheme
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jayadkisson/2015/08/13/donaldson-and-crithfield-enter-guilty-pleas-in-foster-dunhill-tax-fraud-case/
http://www.captiveinsurancecompanies.com/cases/saltybrine/169_Order_16may13.pdf
conduit used to funnel income from those businesses to offshore entities in a scheme to avoid paying taxes due on that
income

#281 jess on 08.25.15 at 5:23 pm

…”According to the indictment and court proceedings, in 2005, entities controlled by co-conspirators entered into a contract to purchase The Arbors, an apartment complex in Hillsborough County, Florida. The new owners then engaged in a plan to convert the complex from rental apartment units to condominium units.

Blankenship’s co-conspirator, Brenden Bolger, aided the developers in the sale of numerous condominium units through his company, Capital Management Guarantee, LLC. In order to induce buyers to purchase The Arbors units, Bolger created an addendum to the purchase contract offering buyers various incentives such as rental supplements, money to defray maintenance costs, and a design credit to upgrade the units’ amenities. When the buyers cancelled the design credit within 10 days of signing the addendum, Bolger paid them a kickback from his company’s bank account for the amount of the design credit. Blankenship’s role in the conspiracy as a realtor consisted of marketing The Arbors units by promising buyers that they would not be required to provide any money at closing, actually providing cash for borrowers to close on the units, facilitating the payment of kickbacks to his clients via Capital Management Guarantee, and facilitating the submission of false loan applications to FDIC-insured financial institutions, or their subsidiaries. In this manner, Bolger, Blankenship, and other co-conspirators failed to disclose material facts to the buyers’ mortgage lenders about the financing of the condominium sales.”

ww.justice.gov/usao-mdfl/pr/st-petersburg-real-estate-agent-indicted-conspiracy-and-bank-fraud-charges

#282 jess on 08.25.15 at 5:35 pm

The PCAOB is encouraging audit firms that audit broker-dealers to carefully review their processes in light of findings from inspections conducted in 2014.

Inspectors identified audit deficiencies in 87% of the audits they reviewed, and each of the 66 firms inspected had deficiencies in at least one audit it performed, according to the annual report on the PCAOB’s interim inspection program released Tuesday.
– See more at: http://www.journalofaccountancy.com/news/2015/aug/pcaob-auditors-broker-dealers-201512862.html#sthash.emeYNCUC.dpufT
This lack of resources is so severe that the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants passed a resolution in May asking Congress to appropriate enough money so that the tax police can ‘‘enforce the law with integrity and fairness to all.’’
http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/8/enforcement-for-white-collar-crimes-hits-20-year-low.html

#283 Kostas on 08.26.15 at 2:35 pm

Can I ask a question?.. In the previous posting there was said something like “If you’ve adhered to my Rule of 90, then your real estate is also in balance.” Which is the name of the posting where the “rule of 90” is described?