Pffft

SENIORS modified

Thomas makes two hundred grand helping manage a northern mine where a semi-rare metal is tugged out of the earth. “Been in mining all my life,” he told me yesterday, “and this is the worst.” You bet. He’ll be unemployed in two months. No pension. Sixty.

Smart guy, though. Instead of piddling away his paycheque on babes and sleds he’s shovelled it into RRSPs and kept the house lust under control. Unlike all the men who will be walking out of this now-bankrupt facility in a few weeks, Tom will get by. No mortgage. Liquidity. Tax-sheltered growth.

Yesterday the commodity rout which is stealing his job continued. It’s spread now to emerging markets, currencies and large-cap stocks. Oil is back at forty bucks and some people (like analyst Gary Shilling) forecast a bottom between $10 and $20 is possible. Stock markets sputtered on Thursday with Bay Street shedding three hundred points and the Dow giving up 350. The sell-off has everything to do with the perception that global growth is slowing, led by a funk in China which is largely responsible for Tom’s mine going belly-up.

Stocks and other assets will eventually get too cheap to resist, as they always do, but nobody has a clue when that will happen. This is exactly why – instead of flipping a few stocks or giving all your money to the bank advisor so he can feed a Canadian equity mutual fund – you should have a balanced and globally-diversified portfolio. Lots of cheap ETFs. Not too much maple. And 40% safe stuff to weather any storm.

However, face it – most people don’t. So expect lots of consequences in the next few months as this rout continues. Here are a few:

Stephen Harper could blow up. The fate of the Conservatives is probably more closely correlated to the price of oil than many people realize. Already the Tory power base in Alberta threw out the local Cons and hoisted a crew of utterly inexperienced, leftist Dippers. That was a direct result of collapsing commodity values and the social pain they brought, once people realized how mismanaged the economy had become.

Hard times always hatch politicians with simple, compelling solutions. They’re also toxic to the guys in power who understand nothing’s simple any more. Too bad. Voters want to change the channel instead of getting educated. Out the bums go. If current trends continue then after October 19th we might have a whole new set of things to worry about.

Housing blows up. This is way more consequential. It has nothing to do with interest rates (see below), and everything to do with jobs. You cannot have a country’s most lucrative export collapse in value without widespread consequences. It also takes time for the ripples to spread and, make no mistake, they’re doing just that. In the days to come, I am told, you will hear of a major industrial collapse.

Already our job creation record is abysmal compared to the US, and coming labour market reports should be disappointing. Wage gains have lagged inflation consistently, and yet household debt has been rising at twice that pace. Meanwhile the price of housing – always notoriously sticky – has not declined even in distressed markets like Calgary. This keeps first-timers from entering and will make the correction sharper and deeper.

People worried about their jobs don’t buy houses. It doesn’t matter if mortgages are 1%. Never lose sight of that.

Deflation is back. At least as a potential threat, given the fact commodity prices have halved and there’s no bottom yet in sight. On Wednesday of this week 50% of equity market analysts who were surveyed thought the US Fed was still on track to raise rates next month. On Thursday that had fallen to 37%. This stemmed from concerns the China mess, oil dump and currency wars will slow everything, trim American inflation and convince central bankers it ain’t the time to tighten monetary policy.

Well, nobody knows. Stock markets are notoriously of-the-moment. Traders in a high-frequency world make their money on a minute-by-minute basis while the rest of us measure our lives in the growth of children or the length of a career. But deflation is a worthy opponent. It makes the value of money increase, decreases hard assets (including houses) and makes debt a whole lot harder to pay. If that’s in our future, along with a potential regime change in Canada, you might wish to prepare.

Tomorrow I’ll tell you how.

237 comments ↓

#1 Loonie Watcher on 08.20.15 at 6:23 pm

The loonie is UP, to 0.7643. Disgraceful. The bird should be below 0.70 by now. Wait, 0.60 by Xmas…

LW

#2 JSS on 08.20.15 at 6:31 pm

Isn’t it too late now to diversify out of Canadian equities?

#3 Godth on 08.20.15 at 6:33 pm

“In the days to come, I am told, you will hear of a major industrial collapse.”

The frackers are done already? It’s not October yet.

#4 MSM-Free Zone on 08.20.15 at 6:36 pm

“….Voters want to change the channel instead of getting educated…..”
_________________________

Au contraire. Voters are becoming educated, and subsequently want change.

The only road to bringing back (c)onservatives is to temporarily purge the country of (C)onservatives.

#5 Chris on 08.20.15 at 6:37 pm

Second. Major industrial collapse? Which one is that?

#6 Love my Kia on 08.20.15 at 6:37 pm

Buh-bye interest rate hike!

#7 Chris on 08.20.15 at 6:37 pm

Bombardier, could it be?

#8 Admirer on 08.20.15 at 6:38 pm

“In the days to come, I am told, you will hear of a major industrial collapse.”

Oh, do tell !

#9 Love my Kia on 08.20.15 at 6:39 pm

I forgot to mention good column today Garth, I enjoyed the read. Keeps this librarian coming back.

#10 TurnerNation on 08.20.15 at 6:40 pm

I once lived in a semi, walls so thin you could hear the neighbor’s dog having sex.

#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.15 at 6:42 pm

“In the days to come, I am told, you will hear of a major industrial collapse”

In Canada?
Or elsewhere?

#12 Market Man on 08.20.15 at 6:44 pm

Years ago someone wrote that Canada has
Has been “japanaded” low interest rates for years to come

Someone also wrote – we are two years away from being two years away from an interest rate hike

Credit tightening? When you have many jobs disappearing as fast as they are in Alberta many lenders
Will experience losses, some lenders will bankrupt and forcing larger lenders to
Tighten and create higher lending standards.
Almost same effect as the subprime market

#13 Shawn on 08.20.15 at 6:44 pm

Last one on Banking

BlackSheep I have always said that commercial banks create money. And it’s a darn good thing they do.

What you refuse to get is the other half.

It is in no way nefarious or bad. It is a vital part of our prosperity.

Created deposits (money) moves around. On a bank balance sheet the deposits are owed to and owned by customers and they fund the loans.

I explained it all in yesterday’s thread.

If you refuse to learn, that is your problem. Over and out.

#14 Nick on 08.20.15 at 6:45 pm

If that’s in our future, along with a potential regime change in Canada, you might wish to prepare.

Tomorrow I’ll tell you how.
—-

The time to prepare was last year. Now the tide is going out and we’ll all see who’s swimming naked. Exhibit A: Kazakhstan’s currency plunged 25% in the past 12 hours!

#15 Retired Boomer - WI on 08.20.15 at 6:47 pm

Yes, well when the economy hits the fan the result gets spread fairly evenly, right? WRONG!! You lose your job, it’s a recession. I lose my job it’s a depression.

Besides, who has any money now? I sold about 1/3 of my holdings 9 days ago, you know that gut feeling. I have been buying some defense dividend payers of late on cheap limit orders. A couple have come in, but not much.

With the market doing bullshit, why should I be in a hurry to get back in there? Foreign, no not just now. US wait a bit, for the market to find direction.

Oh, I had a cheap-o order on POT that got filled today, but only for 150 shares.

Who says a 20% dip isn’t in the system?

#16 FormerSaskie on 08.20.15 at 6:49 pm

The cliffhanger endings are so stressful.Which industrial major is collapsing and what do we do to prepare? It’s a good thing it isn’t Friday!

#17 Informed Party on 08.20.15 at 6:51 pm

“Hard times always hatch politicians with simple, compelling solutions”.

That’s a bit rich seeing as the current federal government has never recognized the complexity of any situation nor used evidence to try and solve any problem.

#18 BobC on 08.20.15 at 6:54 pm

Dove into investing 7 weeks ago. No more being afraid of loses. Another day like today and I’ll be losing money. What was I thinking? I’m missing those 6% bank CD’s.

#19 canadianinportland on 08.20.15 at 6:55 pm

Yes the loonie has far to go before manufacturing and Canadian oil looks appealing over mexico.

Harper tried to put all his eggs in china and oil and now America is booming and snubbing us. Way to go PM

#20 Garth on 08.20.15 at 6:58 pm

You seem really worried about a new party getting into power. Don’t fear change when the present course is getting us nowhere. The real question is if anything fundamental will change no matter which party wins. Our mainstream parties are about 90% similar in policy across the board.

#21 Garth on 08.20.15 at 7:00 pm

Let’s guess which one it is. My guess is the auto manufacturing industry. I hope I’m wrong.

#22 Love my Kia on 08.20.15 at 7:01 pm

#5 Informed Party

“Hard times always hatch politicians with simple, compelling solutions”.

That’s a bit rich seeing as the current federal government has never recognized the complexity of any situation nor used evidence to try and solve any problem.
——————————————-
True that! 10 years of experience hasn’t helped one ioda.

To me the no brainer industrial collapse is in tar sands.

#23 MEANWHILE IN FRANCE on 08.20.15 at 7:01 pm

Europe is treading water, USA is 16 month away from possibly voting a reality TV show man into the White House and Canada goes south as well?

Quo vadis? At least the housing prices in parts of Europe are still affordable. Look at these:

http://www.leboncoin.fr/ventes_immobilieres/offres/poitou_charentes/?ps=2&pe=8&sp=1

#24 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 08.20.15 at 7:05 pm

WHILE CHICKENS ROOST, CANARIES GET GASSED

That pretty much sums up market/economic scene across the world on this date.

As debts continue to pile up, because of low interest rates, commodity-sensitive economies, like Canada’s, suffocate on low prices.

The cold breath of 2008 is felt abroad in this and other lands when, after three bouts of QE, NOTHING HAS CHANGED. It’s actually getting worse.

The winners were those who knew how to play the market and ramped up the filthy lucre since march 2009.

A couple of months ago, the big players bailed. That move was widely advertised on Zero Hedge and other nut-bar economic blogs.

So here we are in a world shackled by currency “wars” amongst the big players, while the EMs (emerging markets) see their sideswiped economies getting pounded into dust also because of deflation.

Today’s Wolf Street blog has a good piece on those wars, and some of the consequences:

“…Their (Canada’s included) struggling or battered economies have to service foreign-currency debt with their own devalued currencies. Commodity exporters are getting sapped additionally by plunging commodity prices. Then that foreign currency debt, that cheap easy money everyone got to used playing with, becomes an insurmountable pile of expensive debt in a currency they can’t control and whose exchange rate might run away from them.

This is when a debt crisis begins to spiral elegantly through the emerging markets, taking down banks, entire economies, and gobs of investors as it goes – or taxpayers in other countries if there is a bailout. It’s always the same story. But this time, it’s different: after years of global QE, low interest rates, and hot money sloshing through the system, the sums are larger, and the risks are higher…”

I ALSO wish to reprise a few lines from St. Garth of “We’re So Screwed Inc.” to make it clear:

“…But deflation is a worthy opponent. It makes the value of money increase, decreases hard assets (including houses) and makes debt a whole lot harder to pay. If that’s in our future, along with a potential regime change in Canada, you might wish to prepare…”

Prepare for what is my question.

Canada hasn’t experienced such an oil price contraction since March of 2009, when the price was hovering in the 30s.

A financial chap I speak with from time to time now believes the Fed will up rates two years from now, and not next month, because economies everywhere are in such trouble.

He also sees oil going to $25.00. At that point, he thinks Saudi Arabia may blink. May.

Nothing solid, mind you.

Meanwhile, from day to day investors everywhere are fretting over how central banksters are going to deal with the debt overhang they imposed on the rest of us “just for our own good” back in 2008.

Thanks a ton, especially at our election time.

#25 Lorne on 08.20.15 at 7:08 pm

Already the Tory power base in Alberta threw out the local Cons and hoisted a crew of utterly inexperienced, leftist Dippers. That was a direct result of collapsing commodity values and the social pain they brought, once people realized how mismanaged the economy had become.

Hard times always hatch politicians with simple, compelling solutions. They’re also toxic to the guys in power who understand nothing’s simple any more. Too bad. Voters want to change the channel instead of getting educated. Out the bums go. If current trends continue then after October 19th we might have a whole new set of things to worry about.
……….
So judging parties on what they HAVE done is not logical, but judging parties on what they did federally 20 years ago, or what they did in a Province 20 years ago (or for the last 3 months) and assuming they did not learn anything is a perfectly acceptable way to determine who deserves to attempt to run a real honest, open government??

#26 Spectacle on 08.20.15 at 7:12 pm

Regarding the commentary by our kind host GT

“In the days to come, I am told, you will hear of a major industrial collapse.

Cut & paste this:

The Guardian
http://www.theguardian.com › Environment › Climate change
Mar 14, 2014 – It is important to note that this Type-L collapse is due to an inequality-induced famine

… And yet do we ever hear anything from our ‘leaders’?
———
Oh secrets. Over $150 billion oil industry in serious distress. And that will hurt!

Still I’m very interested to hear of the business strategy & grow my own corporate future….and that of my beautiful 1 month old baby! Going to be an electrifying few decades?

Ideas Anyone, to get a jump on Mr Turners Friday blog?

#27 H on 08.20.15 at 7:13 pm

The US has an inventory of 27 days total of oil.

Look it up.

200 Billion of the 500 Billion capital expenditures were cancelled.

Global oil output has a natural decline rate of 4 million barrels per day/ annually.

If you dont see whats coming, you are more blind than those predicting interest rates hikes on the horizon.

#28 Estrella on 08.20.15 at 7:15 pm

Hummm. Perhaps Nickel? I heard there was a major incident a few months back. If so this decline in this industry will be core shaking to the small northern communities. I hope I’m wrong…

So on days like this in the market you wonder when is bottom. Jump into some things now, or wait for another correction? Anyone have a crystal ball? Interestingly I hold a little LLY and it went up today. Baby boomers = diabetes! Know your market! Now I just need to learn some more of Gartho wisdom….

#29 Fuzzy Camel on 08.20.15 at 7:18 pm

Short the market.
This thing is going down like a the ladies of the night on Gerrard.

Housing will crash in 2016.
Oil to $20/barrel soon.
Derivatives crisis Sept 17/2015 starts.

Canadians are about to learn a needed lesson in critical thinking.

#30 Smoking Man on 08.20.15 at 7:25 pm

Today’s photo..

Those are not real signs, all signs I’ve seen in the desert have bullet holes in em.

#31 Jack Smyth on 08.20.15 at 7:26 pm

The Bank of Canada will cut interest rates to 0% by the October-21-2015 meeting.

This is all about the fast falling oil prices and making the Canadian dollar to be 68 cents to 70 cents the U.S. dollar.

Canadian bond yields are tanking with the 2 year at 0.34%, 5 year at 0.63%, 10 year 1.30%, 30 year 2.02%.

When we have 1.90% to 2.00% or lower 5 year mortgage rates that will save hundreds a month from peoples mortgages which will push up real estate again.

The only way Canadian housing will crash or have a 25% to 35% price drop is we go back to the 1990’s recession levels of unemployment of 10% to 12% in Ontario, Quebec and the rest Canada too.

What is happening now to the economy is small compared to the 1980’s and 1990’s recessions. It is being blown out of proportion and it is an election of coarse.
However, Jeff Rubin is said on BNN that most of the 500,000 manufacturing job losses to the U.S. will be coming back slowly to Ontario, Quebec when we have a 70 cent dollar to the U.S. in coming months, years. We shall see in due time!

#32 Linda on 08.20.15 at 7:30 pm

So – the Conservatives have been in power for a while now & our economy is mismanaged – so why would we vote Conservative? Sticking with those who did said mismanagement seems to be on a par with granting CEO’s of companies whose market share/value has plummeted under their guidance hefty raises & bonus money. Rewards for failure are not how it is supposed to go.

#33 nnso on 08.20.15 at 7:32 pm

Capitalism’s most dangerous enemies are on the right
The far left can’t win without the aid of callous, complacent conservatism
https://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9611932/capitalisms-most-dangerous-enemies-are-on-the-right/

The ruling Conservatives told voters to look in the mirror if they wanted to know who was responsible for this mess and they announced 59 tax and fee increases. The only people spared from looking into the mirror were the oil companies and corporates. No tax rises for them.

#34 LH on 08.20.15 at 7:34 pm

The answer to deflation is simple: pay off debts

#35 Nora Lenderby on 08.20.15 at 7:35 pm

Nickel? Hope it’s not Vale (formerly INCO).

#36 Nagraj on 08.20.15 at 7:36 pm

“major industrial collapse”

Like #7 CHRIS my first thought was those Bombarder guys but then I thought that would be shockingly Unquebeckish. Then like GODTH I thought oil suckers of some sort.
We DO know it won’t be KFC and Mobilickity.
Surely not The Arts&Letters Club (but my friends the Jungians have moved in, so – )
Wendy’s?
The Galleria Mall on Dupont?
The Anglican Church of Canada?
Surely not Bulto’s strip club.
52 Division?

#37 Smoking Man on 08.20.15 at 7:38 pm

Heard on the radio teachers are joining Wynee to defeat Harpo…. I hope they do it.

I’m into anarchy. More book food.

NDP will win, what you dogs don’t know is the machine is backing Tommy Boy. You will know this when he doesn’t ‘t crush bill C51.

That’s here to stay…

#38 Harbour on 08.20.15 at 7:38 pm

I guess the world isn’t buying as many diamonds as they were.

#39 Dean on 08.20.15 at 7:43 pm

“In the days to come, I am told, you will hear of a major industrial collapse

……………………………………………

Calm down.

The Bon jovi concert that was cancelled in Stanley park has been rescheduled for Saturday night.

Nothing to see here, please move along.

#40 Adam on 08.20.15 at 7:45 pm

#4 MSM-Free Zone

————-

Don’t be so naive. Voters are hardly ever educated. More importantly, the current state of the economy almost always dictates election results, here, and everywhere. If the economy is doing well and people feel their lives are good, the incumbents almost always stay in power. If people are unhappy (often because they are worried about their jobs and “keeping up their lifestyle” – whatever that means) then you can bet that the incumbents will be thrown out.

#41 My Life is a Pile of Shit on 08.20.15 at 7:45 pm

Major stock indices that are below the Grexit bottom (July 8): TSX (obviously), DJIA, SPX, NASDAQ, RUT (Russell 2000), FTSE, DAX, Hang Seng, STI (Singapore), KOSPI (South Korea), & AORD (Australia)*. What else? Every emerging market index except SSEC (Shanghai), plus XRE (TSX REITs) and preferred shares. Aren’t you glad you diversified with (index) ETFs? Let’s have a moment of silence for those who bought at the top of the Grexit bounce exactly five weeks ago (July 16).

*CAC & Nikkei are the only two majors above the Grexit bottom.

#42 Llewelyn on 08.20.15 at 7:49 pm

As I pointed out last week the Constitution of Canada clearly states that a Senator must reside in the Province he represents and must own property valued at $4,000 (1867 dollars).

Stephen Harper, constitutional lawyer that he is not, decided to ignore the residency requirement an appoint Mike Duffy as a Senator representing Prince Edward Island because he owned property there.

This represents complete disrespect for the clear intent of our Constitution. Why not ask all your closest buddies to buy property across Canada and appoint them to the Senate.

There is no doubt in my mind that officials within the Justice Department also informed Stephen Harper that the appointment of Mike Duffy might face a legal challenge if his actual residency became an issue.

They very fact that Stephen Harper was made aware that his appointment of Mike Duffy did not meet the intent of our Constitution certainly helps explain why his expense claims went unchallenged for four years.

I cannot wait to hear Mike Duffy’s version of events and would not be the slightest bit surprised if he to learn that he was encouraged to claim expenses as a way of shoring up the validity of his appointment.

I’m not saying Mike Duffy was justified only that there might be more to this fiasco than Stephen Harper would have us believe.

#43 Shawn on 08.20.15 at 7:50 pm

Can Interest Increase?

#181 WaitingForThatDay on 08.20.15 at 3:31 pm said:

Leo/MF….rates haven’t risen in 9 years. They can’t go lower, so yes, they may rise. Maybe in Septenber, but I doubt it. Regardless, the reality is we have GDP at 2 – 3%, US debt at $19 Trillion and inflation at 2%. How could any reasonable person expect or suggest that rates will continually rise for the next 3 – 5 years?

*************************************
Well, a reasonable person might argue that interest rates are set in part by lenders. If lenders become scarce then rates can rise.

As for 2 to 3% GDP. Remember, GDP growth is ALWAYS talked about in real numbers so that is before inflation.

At 2% the real economy doubles in precisely 35 years. Is that really slow growth? At 3% GSP the economy doubles (Doubles!) in 23.5 years. Would you call an economy that doubles in size in 23.5 years slow growth? Twice the output in 23.5 years. Unless the population also doubles that increases output per person.

You mentioned 2% inflation. So that is GDP growing at 4 to 5% in nominal dollars. Not so slow.

I don’t know if interest rates will rise much but I would never argue that they can’t.

A thoughtful article in todays Globe and Mail suggest the FED rate should be 2.0%.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investor-education/what-should-we-do-about-interest-rates/article26026025/comments/

#44 JimmyJoe on 08.20.15 at 7:52 pm

What do you think Garth? time to pick up some of that shinny stuff? You were right 3 years ago it was gonna drop. Now forming a base and way over sold. BNN and CNBC now calling gold a flight to safety…they all got it wrong?? Some say the stock markets gonna crash and will be worse than 2008 and all hell might break out. I know you can’t eat gold but the new 20’s from the mint are tasteless…

#45 For those about to flop... on 08.20.15 at 7:54 pm

The sell-off has everything to do with the perception that global growth is slowing, led by a funk in China which is largely responsible for Tom’s mine going belly-up.
Garth.

——————————————-
I remember first hearing that China was headed for a slow down 4 or 5 years ago.
You can’t tell me all of these companies had no plan b.
If they just wanted to pick the lowest apples on the apple tree then they get what they deserve .
Do you remember during the early 2000’s all the car companies said hybrids and electric cars were 20/30 years off into the future then the g.f.c happened and what do you know 5 years later they pull out these fancy fuel efficient versions from nowhere .
Bullcrap they had them all along ,just wanted to keep us sucking on big petro’s titty.
I don’t want any man to lose his job but the oil sands are a disgrace .
So be it, if the powers that be thought that it was worth it before but surely now it should be shut down and the oil companies will have to re-invent themselves if they have any decency.
When the going gets tough ….you know the rest.

#46 The New Blue is Orange on 08.20.15 at 7:56 pm

It was encouraging, based on knowledge from this blog, when Mulcair was asked about housing his latest reply. To encourage more rental apartments. Got the three headed look, “We asked about housing not renting apartments” lol

I always liked the idea of co-ops and lived in one for a while too 30 years ago.

People caught in the clutches of the Debt Paradox don’t think. Too emotional. Scary place for a country to be.

#47 Godth on 08.20.15 at 7:57 pm

Forget QE4, Q-war?
Ankara: the New Capital of Jihad
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/08/20/ankara-the-new-capital-of-jihad/

#48 Brad on 08.20.15 at 7:59 pm

I still miss talking about Norway! For example, did you know that your first offense of drunk driving in Norway lands you in jail for 30 days, you lose your license for a year, and you get a fine of 10% of your income! How progressive is that? http://blogs.transparent.com/norwegian/strange-and-interesting-facts-about-norway/

#49 Shawn on 08.20.15 at 8:01 pm

Okay, just one more.

BlackSheep your “note” example at the end of 190 is fine.

You have provided it before and I said it was a good analogy. I am perfectly willing to agree when you are correct.

You say about the loan

“No cash was created, only credit.”

Indeed so, but you fail to explain why you find the whole thing to be a bad thing in any way.

You don’t go to the next step where the buyer transfers his deposit to the seller who may put it in a different bank.

How now is the first bank funding the new loan?

You seem confused about the fact that all money is credit. Cash is legally a credit from the central bank.

Cash is basically an IOU from the economy to the holder. Otherwise it would be confetti as many call it.

In conclusion the banking and credit system that actually facilitates trade and loans in the economy is a damn fine thing and you should certainly be grateful it exists. I am.

If you have a problem with it, that is YOUR problem.

Okay, truly my last post on this at least for today.

You’re all welcome for this free education.

#50 BC Guy on 08.20.15 at 8:04 pm

On Oct. 19, Canadians from coast to coast will give Stephen Harper a message:

“You’re Fired!”

Can’t wait.

:-)

#51 raider on 08.20.15 at 8:05 pm

Always entertaining.

“Tomorrow I’ll tell you how.”
… specifics please, not just a ball-park asset allocation. It’s not just me, but the larger base may just hand cash to the fruit-people because most of what you state here sounds too abstract to them. I just need more juicy stuff to stay liquid in :)

“He also sees oil going to $25.00. At that point, he thinks Saudi Arabia may blink. May.”
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/08/12/uk-russia-lavrov-swearing-idUKKCN0QH2EY20150812
Lavrov already found the way to convey this to them…

#52 Andrew Woburn on 08.20.15 at 8:06 pm

#67 Shawn on 08.19.15 at 9:40 pm
Andrew Woburn at 35:

Only if they still need to raise new money does the stock price matter much. If it is a good business (and it probably is) the founders should be confident enough to wait for their bigger reward when house prices rise and they sell the houses.

Profits dive share prices. Not the other way around.
==========================

I think that was the point of the article. Many of these rent-a-house deals aren’t making their numbers because they underestimated (or deliberately understated) stuff like house repairs and the logistics of managing widely dispersed properties. They may skate onside if SFH prices keep going up but Madame Yellen is tapping her watch and saying, “It’s time”.

#53 omg the original on 08.20.15 at 8:08 pm

Housing blows up. This is way more consequential. It has nothing to do with interest rates (see below), and everything to do with jobs.
————————–

yes that makes utter and complete sense – but this housing market defies any type of conventional wisdom

So I will be surprised if we see much more than a few percentage points dropping off in the two big bloatatious market, if that.

The Calgary market should be imploding but people are able to hang on to their houses regardless of 10s of thousands of high paying professional jobs being shed.

Its taken a decade or more to get this inflated pig of a housing market to where it is now and I think it will be a decade at least unwinding.

#54 [email protected] on 08.20.15 at 8:10 pm

“Well, nobody knows”.
—–
You sure talk like you do Garth , what’s that about the fed raising rates ? You not so sure now?

#55 Andrew Woburn on 08.20.15 at 8:17 pm

Hey, don’t worry if your rental condo is empty and the price is going soft. Just do weekly rentals and you’ll be happy. For a while.

” “I raced down there and opened the door and there was a family from South America – 12 people, kids, baby stuff everywhere. They had just arrived from Canada. I was like: ‘What the hell is going on? You need to leave.’ They didn’t believe me.”

The woman who’d rented the unit through HomeAway was nowhere to be found.”

– Nightmare rental a cautionary tale for short-term stays

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/nightmare-rental-a-cautionary-tale-for-short-term-stays/article26033529/

#56 Gregor Samsa on 08.20.15 at 8:25 pm

Today I learned that Harper has actually left Canada with any industry to collapse.

Face it Garth, Harper has been a disaster as a Prime Minister, in every measurable way including the economy, and if the Harper party suffers a Kim Campbell-esque banishment from the political landscape in this country it will be well deserved.

Harper’s “condo economy” is running out of gas. He did everything in his power to stretch it to the election date, and he may even have one more rate cut up his sleeve, so get ready for that.

#57 Andrew Woburn on 08.20.15 at 8:28 pm

We all know how Garth feels about armchair macroeconomics but even he might like this article. On the other hand, if you are wedded to doom and misery, you won’t.

In today’s environment, the anchor themes are two.

1. Disaster Myopia. We are still living in the long shadow of the global financial crisis. Six years have passed, but we still return to ‘that place’ far too quickly. Worst case scenario, daily. This ease of recall induces us to over forecast tail events—even if Macroggeddon is 0 for 500 by now. Erring on the side of optimism is still the money trade.

2. Longest, shallowest cycle ever. The world continues its deleveraging. The US appears to be leading the rest of the world in the process. But the extrapolation of growth optimism on which all cycles end is just not there in the US—or anywhere else for that matter. And it doesn’t seem imminent, either. This implies two things: (1) the odds of a new recession in the US are low (you can’t commit suicide jumping out of the basement window), and (2) since bear markets typically come when economic cycles turn, a bear market in US equities is unlikely until the economy gets jacked up on excessive investment and hiring.

http://markdow.tumblr.com/post/127114686560/i-believe-two-things-and-that-might-be-enough

#58 mid on 08.20.15 at 8:29 pm

What’s a dipper?

#59 prairie person on 08.20.15 at 8:33 pm

House just a block away. Bought two years ago. Heritage home. Serious problems. Renovations have been going on from then until now. I don’t know what the buyer paid but it now is on the mkt for 995,000.00 This a nice neighbourhood but most houses have been being sold for 500 to 700,000. Either the buyer/renovator believes the rumours that HAM has discovered Victoria or is pricing it for cost and a profit without any concern for the usual prices around here. If it sells for 995, I’ll make up a For Sale sign and stand at the side of the road and wave it at the traffic going by.

#60 Meanwhile in Ontario on 08.20.15 at 8:33 pm

And on the background of the commodities collapse all around us and the pending doom and gloom soon to be unleashed on the developed world our Ontario liberal government just raised the teachers salaries:

“A three-year breakthrough deal reached by the Ontario high school teachers’ union, government and school boards — one that provides a small wage increase and protects class sizes — is expected to now pave the way for other settlements and minimize labour turmoil this fall.”

“Sources have told the Star the proposed deal will give high school teachers a small salary increase — believed to be a 1 per cent lump sum payment this year, and a 1.5 per cent salary increase next year.
The increase won’t cost the province any additional money because savings were found elsewhere, sources said.”

Yeah elsewhere – from the carbon tax coming in less than 2 months and then from the ORPP.

#61 jSS on 08.20.15 at 8:35 pm

I’m smelling blood on the streets.
Maybe the time has come to buy Canadian equities.

I say banking, insurance, utilities, pipelines, consumer goods (metro, loblaws, Empire). Dividend growth companies not correlated with resources.

#62 Smudgekin on 08.20.15 at 8:35 pm

Very sad about Jimmy Carter. Not a great president but a very nice man. A saint to home ownership. Building homes around the world for the needy.

#63 Retired Boomer - WI on 08.20.15 at 8:35 pm

“Hard times always hatch politicians with simple, compelling solutions.”

Yeah, like Germany 1932 for example. Agreed, but even your worst case nut-bar politicians pale compared to the U.DS. Trumpsterman. You have a slate of decent to rather mediocre choices, as we do in the states.

Whether either country ‘educates’ themselves on the risks, and with todays endless sources of questionable education, the question becomes which ‘educational sources’ do you trust? NOT a small question in the world on internet possibilities.

Do tell, Mr. T educate the unwashed, unenlightened, unknowing, yet eager masses! What IS at stake?

#64 Kreditanstalt on 08.20.15 at 8:41 pm

Looks like gold mining might be a better bet, doesn’t it?

So much for ETFs, “diversification”, growth stocks, yield-chasing, momentum plays, the China growth story, the US growth story and the US dollar…

#65 Brian Ripley on 08.20.15 at 8:42 pm

“But deflation is a worthy opponent.” Garth

In Aug 2014 I published this chart of the Japanese Gov’t 10 Year Bond since 1984 (2nd chart on the page):

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/fed-stress-index

And earlier in Dec 2012 I published a chart of Japanese household cash and deposits since 1998:

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/what-to-do-during-a-housing-bust

What do people do in a deflationary cycle?

They hoard and increase their savings because the risk of asset prices falling, grows with each tick down.

200 day moving averages are being broken all over the world.

Deflation is quite visible now that global central bank monetary authorities have exposed themselves as being unable to stop the momentum of change.

#66 Randy Randerson on 08.20.15 at 8:43 pm

I sure hope the major industry that’s finally imploding is the realturd cartel.

#67 Myles R. on 08.20.15 at 8:43 pm

#179 Smoking Man on 08.18.15 at 3:20 pm

#160 MF on 08.18.15 at 12:33 pm
#135 LH on 08.18.15 at 9:55 am

Post secondary education is a Rediculos waste of money now that everything is free on google.

Yesterday I was trying to pick off a deal. The moron thought I was applying for a job and made me wait 15 fking minutes…

The respeptionist was confused too. I was there to offer my consulting services, save them a fortune with an alternative to Python.

The manager finaly shows up.. I went in to his office. Sat down and said nothing. Let him do his alpha kiss my ring show.

I said, you wasted 15 minutes of my valuable time, can’t you read a simple email. I’m not here for a job. I was going to show you how to save a fortune. But I have another appointment with someone that can read email and manage his time. Then stormed out.

————
Maybe try a spell checker and people will understand you – don’t let your lack of education hold you back.

#68 Ret on 08.20.15 at 8:47 pm

Idle speculation on my part, U.S. Steel (Stelco) in Hamilton. There aren’t many jobs left but there are 1,000’s of pensioners.

#69 Randy Randerson on 08.20.15 at 8:48 pm

Maybe GT is talking about the great Canadian oilsands industry, that could’ve propelled Canada into an energy superpower (according to Harpo the clown). Well guess an energy producer still plays second fiddle when you compare Canada to the likes of China or US.

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/08/20/most-canada-oil-sands-crude-being-produced-at-a-loss-report

#70 amazon girl on 08.20.15 at 8:48 pm

Amazon girl to Smoking Man #142
Amazon or Amazonian….Well use your imagination ..
pick one that is best for you…
On my jungle nights , by the stars I think of Smoking man I don’t know who he is…
A tall hairy man ,set by the fire place ,with JD in his hand reading a book… or
A man from another planet who takes risks and
holds a PhD in Herdonomics..drives by area 51 looking
for answers…I made my choice , make yours
P.s.. My colour is pink …You do know everthing…
Fan 51 out

#71 bdy sktrn on 08.20.15 at 8:52 pm

This “recovery” is already turning over and all you can do is blindly trust the cheerleaders at Bloomberg and CNBC. Do yourself a favour, search for all the same rah rah type articles from 2006 and 2007 and see just how clueless they, along with the Fed, were then.
——————————–
word

#72 Fitbitkid on 08.20.15 at 8:53 pm

Well, nobody knows – Garth

Well, your readers have been saying this for months…
No interest rates hikes this year… Book it…

#73 paul a on 08.20.15 at 8:54 pm

so im going to look towards the Hamilton area for the big industrial issue ?

#74 Marco Polo on 08.20.15 at 9:06 pm

Waiting for the Dippers to get in, and then it’ll be all puppies and unicorns for a few on this forum. A smiling beard will restore everything, and those plants will pack up in China and move to Ontario for green energy.

Far more likely he’ll drive investment out of Canada, and we’ll join the european fold of stagnant growth and overtaxation. There is a cost to $15/ hour minimum wages, and $15 daycare.

Alberta EI claims have been rising for eight months already. Can’t wait to see a month of $35 oil. No drama Obama may have something up his sleeve to push the electric car further, should he need to. I remember when the internet and cellphones were novel things that few people had..

#75 TRT on 08.20.15 at 9:09 pm

Jobs are being created by the 10’s of thousands every month.

Ask the Express Entry Visa Immigration Officials.

#76 Freedom First on 08.20.15 at 9:15 pm

Cheerful Post tonight.

TSisHTF right now. Been saying I was overweight cash since last fall, and I just started to nibble. Should be interesting Blog from Garth tomorrow, and onward through this turbulence. Feasting time is getting close, and I learned how to pull the trigger many years ago, and, also, when the herd is feasting, how to sell. I am no Dr. of Herdonomics, nor am I a Garth, but I am smart enough to see how the wealthy operate. And I also see who always gets screwed. Nothing changes. Fact.

#77 Tim on 08.20.15 at 9:15 pm

“Major industrial collapse”? What the x&>? Are you trying to freak us out?

#78 Gin Gin on 08.20.15 at 9:18 pm

Although it may feel like a crash, but S&P500 is down only 4.5% from its all time high. If we are in for a deeper correction than we ain’t seen nothing yet.
Not sure that will go down faster, a tangible asset like a house or a balance portfolio, both are products of the same cheap money central bank policies.

#79 The real Kip on 08.20.15 at 9:21 pm

Yellen will not raise rates on Sept 17th. The Ponzi is wobbly and could collapse on her Wall St. puppeteers!

#80 Smoking Man on 08.20.15 at 9:22 pm

#67 Myles R. on 08.20.15 at 8:43 pm
#179 Smoking Man on 08.18.15 at 3:20 pm

#160 MF on 08.18.15 at 12:33 pm
#135 LH on 08.18.15 at 9:55 am

Post secondary education is a Rediculos waste of money now that everything is free on google.

Yesterday I was trying to pick off a deal. The moron thought I was applying for a job and made me wait 15 fking minutes…

The respeptionist was confused too. I was there to offer my consulting services, save them a fortune with an alternative to Python.

The manager finaly shows up.. I went in to his office. Sat down and said nothing. Let him do his alpha kiss my ring show.

I said, you wasted 15 minutes of my valuable time, can’t you read a simple email. I’m not here for a job. I was going to show you how to save a fortune. But I have another appointment with someone that can read email and manage his time. Then stormed out.

————
Maybe try a spell checker and people will understand you – don’t let your lack of education hold you back.
……..

Your a newbee aren’t you….

#81 zee on 08.20.15 at 9:25 pm

hey garth

You say people fearing job losses don’t buy houses even at 1% interest rates.
Did you forget that during the financial crises, Canadian were buying houses everywhere even while jobs were being lost in the country.
Its different here.

Incorrect. The market stalled and prices dropped. — Garth

#82 Waterloo Resident on 08.20.15 at 9:38 pm

You’re not going to like this bit of news, but someone is going to have to tell you what’s about to hit the fan:

“Doomsday clock for global market crash strikes one minute to midnight as central banks lose control”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11805523/Doomsday-clock-for-global-market-crash-strikes-one-minute-to-midnight-as-central-banks-lose-control.html

Quote: “China currency devaluation signals endgame leaving equity markets free to collapse under the weight of impossible expectations.”
” Time is now rapidly running out. From China to Brazil, the central banks have lost control and at the same time the global economy is grinding to a halt. It is only a matter of time before stock markets collapse under the weight of their lofty expectations and record valuations.
The FTSE 100 has now erased its gains for the year, but there are signs things could get a whole lot worse.”

Wow. Just like Y2K. Scary. — Garth

#83 Porsche on 08.20.15 at 9:43 pm

The Closing of the Canadian Mind

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/16/opinion/sunday/the-closing-of-the-canadian-mind.html?_r=0

#84 Smoking Man on 08.20.15 at 9:43 pm

#70 amazon girl on 08.20.15 at 8:48 pm
Amazon girl to Smoking Man #142
Amazon or Amazonian….Well use your imagination ..
pick one that is best for you…
On my jungle nights , by the stars I think of Smoking man I don’t know who he is…
A tall hairy man ,set by the fire place ,with JD in his hand reading a book… or
A man from another planet who takes risks and
holds a PhD in Herdonomics..drives by area 51 looking
for answers…I made my choice , make yours
P.s.. My colour is pink …You do know everthing…
Fan 51 out.
…….

Nice, your getting a free book.

Number two discripton is correct, no hair, Nectonites are bald..

No sence leaving it to imagination anymore, for the first time ever.

Full frontal head shot of the great Smoking Man.

You will be disappointed Amazon Girl..

http://dyslexicsmokingman.blogspot.ca/2015/08/for-amazonians.html

#85 Protea on 08.20.15 at 9:49 pm

Times like right now I wish I lived in the USA Observing the US politics from Canada I feel that if i could I would seriously think about voting for Trump, and here is why. I firmly believe that largely that most government systems including ours are deeply flawed, if not completely broken. Yet we all still keep voting for the same type of people. Trump who does talk a whole bunch of nonsense at times is at least honest, and isn’t really into bullshitting people. A lot of the criticism about Trump is taken out of context Besides, who wants a third Bush or a second Clinton in office anyway. The Presidency should not be a hereditary monarchy.

If Trump wins, there’s a good chance the whole thing will collapse from his absurdity. Then maybe we could start over and build something better that works. A vote for trump is a vote for full system breakdown, which I believe is exactly what the USA and Canada and the vast majority of the world needs. We do want a healthy financially strong USA in the global sphere, its vital to our well being. Anyway just some of my thoughts and the reason I would seriously consider voting for Trump if I could.

#86 Paul on 08.20.15 at 9:50 pm

#66 Randy Randerson on 08.20.15 at 8:43 pm

I sure hope the major industry that’s finally imploding is the realturd cartel.
————————————————————-
Not me I hope it’s your and your wife’s job and your kids starve.

That sounds nice doesn’t it!!!

#87 Bank of Millennial on 08.20.15 at 9:59 pm

In the days to come, I am told, you will hear of a major industrial collapse.

———————————

I sure hope its Ashley madison.. Oh wait?

#88 PeterfromCalgary on 08.20.15 at 10:02 pm

A lot of people in Calgary seem delusional. They recently approved a controversial retail and condo development for Paskapoo Slopes. Meanwhile many former Future Shop and Target location are available to lease, oil is going way down in price and the low Canadian dollar is sure the mean inflated retail prices.

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.15 at 10:07 pm

@#66 R.R.
“I sure hope the major industry that’s finally imploding is the realturd cartel.”

ahahahahahahaha
Good one. I’ll second that!

#90 omg the original on 08.20.15 at 10:08 pm

BEWARE THE TOADS OF CNBC AND BNN

I do not watch these channels anymore – they are simply a marketing tools for financial advisors and newsletters.

But I expect that they are trotting out the doom and gloom talking heads.

The themes will be sovereign debt crisis, China in financial meltdown, world economy slowing.

The end result will be world stock markets shedding 50-70%.

How to protect yourself – buy gold of course, or palm tree plantations.

What a bunch of BULL SH*T.

#91 Valleyboy on 08.20.15 at 10:09 pm

It’s nice to see your confidence in a rate rise come to a bit of reality. I hope a rate rise does happen. But the deflationary pressures are pretty crazy. I believe Martin Armstrong predicted everything around the U.S. Will struggle and eventually bring down the U.S. And his timeline seems to be on par with the events slowly taking place. I guess time will tell. Another great article thou.

So who are we to vote for Garth. I do like justin saying the right things and has confidence to talk to anyone. You get my vote first Garth.

#92 jeff on 08.20.15 at 10:15 pm

why did you ever back that Lego hair funeral director Garth?

#93 kommykim on 08.20.15 at 10:19 pm

RE:Deflation is back. At least as a potential threat, given the fact commodity prices have halved and there’s no bottom yet in sight.

Speaking of Mark. Where is he anyway?

#94 Blacksheep on 08.20.15 at 10:23 pm

Shawn the brave,

We have covered all of this before (archives) and you simply, cannot win this debate.

You keep trying to find fault with my stance, but what your missing is, I am simply cutting and pasting from the gold standard, that is the Bank of England document. It’s not me your arguing with, it’s them.

So Shawn buddy, please stop….at this point, you truly are, just humiliating yourself.

#95 Ken Nash on 08.20.15 at 10:25 pm

“In the days to come, I am told, you will hear of a major industrial collapse.” Please not Bombardier! It’ll be sad day for Canada. If it can hang on until Oct the NDP will never let it happen.

Justifiably so, it’s not like Brazil’s Embraer plays fair with goofy government finance for those who purchase their planes. Like what the hell is going on here? Vale is blight on Sudbury. Whatever happened to Brascan? Inco? Potash Corp? I’m so ready for change.

#96 Carpe Diem on 08.20.15 at 10:29 pm

Life is not all about investments.

Get a will and register it.

Do it for the people you love.

If you separate from one person, meet another babe and think “every thing is awesome.

And then die.

And the babe dies after.

WTF????

GET A WILL!

#97 Victor V on 08.20.15 at 10:29 pm

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/why-the-housing-bubble-is-not-up-for-debate/

Canada’s housing bubble: Not on the election agenda
Don’t expect federal leaders to get serious about the bubble—they have too much to gain from the status quo, writes Jason Kirby

#98 AfterTheHouseSold on 08.20.15 at 10:38 pm

“…you will hear of a major industrial collapse.”

Ok, I’ll take a stab at this. My top contenders are:

The outfit in northern ontario that makes the streetcars for Toronto transit. Have only delivered a handful of the order, way behind schedule.

Hamilton steel.

Chrysler packs up and heads to Mexico within a year, before their next union contract comes due.

Auto parts manufacturers.

#99 For those about to flop... on 08.20.15 at 10:40 pm

#91 Valleyboy on 08.20.15 at 10:09 pm
It’s nice to see your confidence in a rate rise come to a bit of reality. I hope a rate rise does happen. But the deflationary pressures are pretty crazy. I believe Martin Armstrong predicted everything around the U.S. Will struggle and eventually bring down the U.S. And his timeline seems to be on par with the events slowly taking place. I guess time will tell. Another great article thou.

So who are we to vote for Garth. I do like justin saying the right things and has confidence to talk to anyone. You get my vote first Garth.
——————————————————-
Who to vote for ???
The young buck ,might mess things up .Might fix some things.
The guy with the beard,might mess things up.Might fix some things.
The guy with the clip on Lego haircut,same old ,same old.
Do like change?Or do you like familiarity ?
Once you work that out the rest takes care of itself.

#100 Carpe Diem on 08.20.15 at 10:41 pm

SO sad….

Someone, I know, decided their 500K home will sell in 9 months.

They now have a 900K land +home that is being built…

And expect the big price in March.

God luck !!!

Cause you are fu#$#S loosers when it comes to businees or economy….

#101 Smoking Man on 08.20.15 at 10:48 pm

So glad lost track of time and forgot about Burning Man this year.

http://www.foxnews.com/travel/2015/08/20/bugs-swarm-site-upcoming-burning-man-festival/

#102 Tiger1960 on 08.20.15 at 10:52 pm

Paul 86
Go grind a nother stump, you re tard
yeah keep your shirt on!
Your a disgraceful re pumper and you have no morals
Like I said before , go join the circus u clown!!!!
Another re f$$k tard, you can always try shoe shinning boy

#103 Admirer on 08.20.15 at 10:52 pm

Good post Garth, can’t wait to read tomorrow night.

#104 Derek R on 08.20.15 at 10:57 pm

#49 Shawn on 08.20.15 at 8:01 pm wrote:
You don’t go to the next step where the buyer transfers his deposit to the seller who may put it in a different bank.

How now is the first bank funding the new loan?

Interesting thing is that it often barely needs to because for every deposit that a buyer at bank A transfers to a seller at bank B on any given day chances are good that a buyer at bank B is transferring a similar sized deposit to a seller at Bank A. So at the end of that day Bank A may need to transfer a total of $100,000,000 of deposits to bank B and Bank B may need to transfer a total of $100,001,000 of deposits to Bank A once all the deposits to be transferred in each direction have been totalled up. Rather than transfer the whole amount Bank B ends up transferring just the $1,000 difference to Bank A and they call it quits. Or Bank B may just end up owing the $1,000 to Bank A since tomorrow they both know that the position might well be reversed with Bank A having to transfer $2,000 to Bank B.

So the amount of funding required by either bank may actually be a very small fraction of the loans that they make.

#105 Just The facts on 08.20.15 at 11:01 pm

What if Canadian real estate dropped 18.2% in price in one year?

#106 shawn on 08.20.15 at 11:05 pm

Jared Fogle – Of Subway Fame

If a joke is permitted, one wag has noted that Jared began and ended his Subway career the same way:

“Trying to get into smaller pants”

#107 OttawaMike on 08.20.15 at 11:07 pm

The bad industrial news will almost certainly come from the auto sector. Mexico has siphoned off our manufacturing insidiously and we should be prepared for a major plant to pull out.
During the 80s and 90s a full 1/3 of jobs in the GTA were related to cars. This included the retail and repair arms as well as the manufacturing of parts and assembling.

Say good bye to the dominance of the auto sector.

#108 Cashin on 08.20.15 at 11:12 pm

Cashing in stock portfolio in negative territory this year….2% gic would not be so bad….downside too scary right now.

Markets are 4% off all-time highs and you’re panicking? Human nature wins again. — Garth

#109 Nosty, etc. on 08.20.15 at 11:28 pm

SMan, Spectacle, Blacksheep, swl etc. — This 34-second video is a case study in herdonomics. Notice how the bank robbers in Detroit exit the bank, get in their car and . . . you can figure it out. Ain’t ‘murica great?!
*
#126 SWL1976 on 08.20.15 at 8:27 am — “Sadly nothing brings about swift and abrupt change like the chaos and carnage of war. Don’t think for a second that the real crazies do not understand this.”

This is where the arms manufacturers really stand out. As long as there are wars happening, they have licenses to print money, human lives be damned.
*
IMF pressured More than enough time to start a WW, and avoid a Yuan-backed reserve system; Fed admits QE doesn’t work; Godzilla El Nino
*
SWL1986 — These may be of interest (USOs here).

#110 Kreditanstalt on 08.20.15 at 11:31 pm

“Deflation is back. At least as a potential threat…”

Lower prices are a “threat”??

Only to yield-chasers – and they’re terrified already because yield (on paper assets), especially low-risk, is getting pretty elusive. And risky.

“Deflation” means “lower prices”! Food, energy, education, medical and other costs are kept under control. Unable to rise.

And let’s look forward to this “threat” taking action on house prices!

#111 Tony on 08.20.15 at 11:31 pm

The people from Calgary watched real estate mostly flat line the past 8 years. Edmonton did worst than flat line the past 8 years. Saskatoon and Winnipeg increased in price for most of those consecutive 8 years. Now the people from Calgary and Edmonton have nowhere to go. That’s why real estate prices in Calgary and Edmonton haven’t tanked like they always did in the past when oil fell in price.

#112 salmon rear end arm on 08.20.15 at 11:33 pm

syncrude is going to shut her down

#113 Tom from Mississauga on 08.20.15 at 11:34 pm

Major industrial? Bombardier. They’ve had too many product flops and are running out of cash.

Perpetual preferreds, multi-family REITs and no commodity exposure has had me snoring through this market correction.

#114 will on 08.20.15 at 11:37 pm

major industrial collapse: can’t be bombardier. it’s already collapsed. and i am truly sad about that. sad that big econo-guy harper made it his business to turn off both china and russia with stupid political posturing. our pm is no business man. no economist either. just pure politico garbage. from day one. want the tinfoil hat stuff? here it is: harper is a currency guy.

#115 MF on 08.20.15 at 11:53 pm

#200 Damjan on 08.20.15 at 6:09 pm

If someone bought real estate in 2015 and then went to sell it now the return would be negative big time even after the 2% appreciation you cite.

After realtor fees, land transfer, capital gains if not principle residence, mortgage interest, lawyer fees you need a lot of higher than 2% appreciation after one year to make a profit.

MF

#116 kommykim on 08.20.15 at 11:56 pm

RE: #108 Cashin on 08.20.15 at 11:12 pm
Cashing in stock portfolio in negative territory this year….2% gic would not be so bad….downside too scary right now.
Markets are 4% off all-time highs and you’re panicking? Human nature wins again. — Garth

Whenever I feel a twinge of panic I zoom out on the chart to a 5 year time scale and 99.9% of the time say, “Meh”.

#117 No Canada, No on 08.20.15 at 11:56 pm

Diversification, what diversification?

Corp bonds, Junk bonds, dividend ETFs, S&P, Nasdaq, Canada ETF – everything is minus YTD (Canada -15%) or heading south fast.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=JNK#{“showArea”:false,”useLogScale”:true,”lineWidth”:”2″,”lineType”:”line”,”range”:”ytd”,”showPrePost”:false,”didDisablePrePost”:true,”allowChartStacking”:true}

Oh, and Netflix (growth stock,duh) is +130% YTD!

Can anybody image the amount of unwind and normalization markets has to go through to correct these +150% “gains”?

#118 Leo Trollstoy on 08.21.15 at 12:00 am

Speaking of Mark. Where is he anyway?

Trying to find a job.

#119 will on 08.21.15 at 12:05 am

this is a great song:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iP0lwQreha8

montreal band. ought. get the lyrics here:

http://genius.com/Ought-beautiful-blue-sky-lyrics

#120 len on 08.21.15 at 12:18 am

Archdruid report has another excellent post out that does a good job explaining the overall themes that underpin the phenomena that is Trump, Alberta NDP, Sanders, etc. Series of posts but the most recent one talks about de-legitimatization of the current power structures and how the right-wing has been extremely effective in undermining them. And now Trump has come back to bite them – poetic, fitting and couldn’t happen to a bunch of nicer guys!

The underlying theme has always been about the lack of abundant cheep energy. Oil above $85 collapses the economy, oil below $85 collapses the energy sector. The credit bubble is the story of papering over this fact. Now we have the twin bonuses of a gigantic credit bubble and collapsing ecosystem. Diversifying across sectors, countries, and financial instruments will be as effective as buying first, second, and third class tickets on the Titanic simultaneously. It makes zero difference who gets elected here or there and what the Fed will attempt to do. They will likely just give more free money to people who already have lots of it.

The smart thing to do now would be to build supportive relational networks, learn useful skills, and stop worrying about a thoroughly corrupt system. The oligarchs and their lapdogs don’t give two figs about you and I – why should we pay any attention to them? The hope is that the financial system collapses before the ecosystem does. As terrible as that event would be, it would at least be survivable; the alternative, not so much. Oh and don’t forget to diversify!!!/snark

#121 gut check on 08.21.15 at 12:20 am

#66 Randy Randerson on 08.20.15 at 8:43 pm
I sure hope the major industry that’s finally imploding is the realturd cartel.
______________________________

moi aussi

#122 Bottoms_Up on 08.21.15 at 12:29 am

#18 BobC on 08.20.15 at 6:54 pm
—————————–
Unless you arr retiring in a couple years, you need to change your mindset. You are not losing money. Downturns in the market are something to be valued…they bring about buying opportunities and increase the value of stocks. If it ends up being an end of days market crash (which it never is), it won’t matter how much money you have (but canned tuna and backyard squirrels could come in handy)

#123 Bottoms_Up on 08.21.15 at 12:32 am

#108 Cashin on 08.20.15 at 11:12 pm
———————————
I agree with Garth, short-term fear is typically greater than long-term resolve.

Garth has long-term resolve.

#124 Christopher Lackey on 08.21.15 at 12:38 am

Major industrial collapse? Come on. We’re racking our brains here.

Tortured tittilation in the era of instant gratification

#125 Dialing for $ on 08.21.15 at 1:22 am

“And 40% safe stuff to weather any storm.-Garth”

Garth,

Just wondering why you never consider holding cash as the 40%…lots of highly paid portfolio managers might call that the “safe stuff”

#126 NoName on 08.21.15 at 1:30 am

#86 Paul on 08.20.15 at 9:50 pm

Paul, i lost my job a year ago
so I can understand your frustration and fear of what is about to happen. I bet you at this point door to door towel business looks very promising for both of us. And read this below.

but u already know this

“You are employed as a licenced real estate agent selling or purchasing real estate on a commission basis. It is determined that you control your own hours of work. You are considered to be working a full working week, therefore not unemployed, and cannot be paid EI benefits.”

http://www.servicecanada.gc.ca/eng/ei/information/self_employed.shtml

#127 Dialing for $ on 08.21.15 at 1:34 am

“In the days to come, I am told, you will hear of a major industrial collapse.”

Garth, where do you get this inside scoop…..you still have contacts inside the intelligentsia or is this a tea leaves reading type thang?

#128 Mike T. on 08.21.15 at 1:38 am

I don’t want to hear about reality or problems

I want cool stories about Godzilla El Nino fighting the neutralizing warm ocean water blob

puppies would do I guess, maybe Godzilla can have a compassionate persona and raise puppies on the side while he is not being a fire breathing B movie monster

anyone know a bad script writer?

#129 Vanecdotal on 08.21.15 at 1:58 am

Hmmm. Major industrial collapse? First guess is automaker announces preference for margueritas & real peso over cpeso and heads south permanently, or perhaps big player in oil sandsbox goes tatas up and pulls up stakes? So mysterious GT… and a bit foreboding.

Is it time for squirrel recipes?

#130 Rexx Rock on 08.21.15 at 2:04 am

We live in very interesting times!!The central bankers can’t stop the inevitable.The greater depression is finally upon us.Just be prepared for the worst case scenario is all we can do.The world is awash in trillions of dollars in debt.
I hope they can delay the implosion long after I retire in a beautiful beach town in South America.Don’t catch a falling knife and keep shorting the market,we have a long way to go!!!

#131 Lobster Man on 08.21.15 at 2:10 am

“Speaking of Mark, where is he anyway?”

Mark is touring our great nation. At the moment, he is probably somewhere in the Maritimes (not PEI). He just poured himself another Moosehead, to help wash down his gigantic lobster feast.

#132 paperwinner on 08.21.15 at 6:09 am

General Motors is shutting down in Ontariowe. It will be the the big domino that exposes how vulnerable Ontario and Canada are. October will see the start of the worst winter trip since the Donner party, as the dippers will drive the final nail. Fifty cent dollar?

#133 OttawaMike on 08.21.15 at 6:40 am

#30 Smoking Man on 08.20.15 at 7:25 pm

Smokie, you belong in this book:
http://www.techist.com/forums/f6/big-book-british-smiles-aka-dentist-thread-270545/

#134 Colin on 08.21.15 at 6:53 am

Balanced portfolio -4.2% in the past 5 months (excluding trading fees). Likely orange revolution will bring it down even further. But still renting. The feeling of not being $500K in debt: priceless.

Not all ‘balanced’ portfolios are created equal, especially if they lack the proper geographic diversification or bond duration. How much European exposure do you have? Sounds like little. — Garth

#135 maxx on 08.21.15 at 7:12 am

#19 canadianinportland on 08.20.15 at 6:55 pm

“Yes the loonie has far to go before manufacturing and Canadian oil looks appealing over mexico.

Harper tried to put all his eggs in china and oil and now America is booming and snubbing us…..”

He didn’t try, he did. As for America, I don’t blame those who do snub us. Many Canucks behaved like a bunch of supercilious snots when our dollar was high and they were in the depths of the crapper.
Ego indulgence, in its myriad forms, always has a price tag.

#136 BT on 08.21.15 at 7:57 am

#179 Smoking Man on 08.18.15 at 3:20 pm

#160 MF on 08.18.15 at 12:33 pm
#135 LH on 08.18.15 at 9:55 am

Post secondary education is a Rediculos waste of money now that everything is free on google.

Yesterday I was trying to pick off a deal. The moron thought I was applying for a job and made me wait 15 fking minutes…

The respeptionist was confused too. I was there to offer my consulting services, save them a fortune with an alternative to Python.

The manager finaly shows up.. I went in to his office. Sat down and said nothing. Let him do his alpha kiss my ring show.

I said, you wasted 15 minutes of my valuable time, can’t you read a simple email. I’m not here for a job. I was going to show you how to save a fortune. But I have another appointment with someone that can read email and manage his time. Then stormed out.

————
Maybe try a spell checker and people will understand you – don’t let your lack of education hold you back

***Google (with a capital) won’t help you if you’re illiterate. Spell check only works if you know what words mean, and it does not correct punctuation.

#137 jean on 08.21.15 at 8:05 am

Smoking Man said: “NDP will win, what you dogs don’t know is the machine is backing Tommy Boy. You will know this when he doesn’t ‘t crush bill C51.”
****
Please expand on this. I see bill C51 as a key reason to vote for Mulcair since he has said he will remove it. Why do you think he will back out? Thx

#138 Doomsday Prepper on 08.21.15 at 8:10 am

But The [email protected] told me I was richer than I thought?
WTF?

#139 Tequila therapy on 08.21.15 at 8:12 am

Finally after reading your blog religiously every morning for years, something to discuss!
Sleds are well worth the investment!
Sleds are going up in price due to the weak Canadian dollar.

#140 The Wentz on 08.21.15 at 8:16 am

Wow! A few weeks ago a rate hike was a given. A truly global economy which could get a little crazy. The main pillar of ones finances is that you actually work for a living.

#141 jean on 08.21.15 at 8:36 am

83 Porsche, thanks for posting that. Great article.

#142 BT on 08.21.15 at 8:53 am

#179 Smoking Man on 08.18.15 at 3:20 pm

#160 MF on 08.18.15 at 12:33 pm
#135 LH on 08.18.15 at 9:55 am

Post secondary education is a Rediculos waste of money now that everything is free on google.

Yesterday I was trying to pick off a deal. The moron thought I was applying for a job and made me wait 15 fking minutes…

The respeptionist was confused too. I was there to offer my consulting services, save them a fortune with an alternative to Python.

The manager finaly shows up.. I went in to his office. Sat down and said nothing. Let him do his alpha kiss my ring show.

I said, you wasted 15 minutes of my valuable time, can’t you read a simple email. I’m not here for a job. I was going to show you how to save a fortune. But I have another appointment with someone that can read email and manage his time. Then stormed out.

————
Maybe try a spell checker and people will understand you – don’t let your lack of education hold you back.

——–
***Google (with a capital) can’t help you if you’re illiterate.

Spell check only works if you know what words mean, and it doesn’t fully correct punctuation.

#143 Q2 Class Duplex Drive on 08.21.15 at 8:55 am

All these guys predicting oil at 10 or 20 bucks in the near future – how would they know? A crystal ball or something? These predictions are worthless, and should be ignored. It would be instructive to see what sort of oil price predictions these alleged ‘experts’ were making oh, say, a year ago. Remember, oil hit $135/bbl in 2008, crashed to $42 in 2009 and rebounded to $115 in 2011, then traded in a range between $90 and $110 until late last year. And you think these guys can predict that? Sure thing.

So we should also ignore those who came here six months ago to predict $80 oil by August? — Garth

#144 BT on 08.21.15 at 8:59 am

Re: Possible US Interest Rate Hike…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investor-education/what-should-we-do-about-interest-rates/article26026025/?service=mobile

#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.21.15 at 9:17 am

Speaking of Mark. Where is he anyway?

ISIS has recruited him to teach them how to “type” people to death………

#146 Q2 Class Duplex Drive on 08.21.15 at 9:23 am

No. 143 Q2 Class Duplex Drive

Garth – My point exactly.

#147 Shawn on 08.21.15 at 9:28 am

The rest of the debt story

#130 Rexx Rock on 08.21.15 at 2:04 am said

…The world is awash in trillions of dollars in debt.

**************************************
Borrowed from whom? Interest paid to whom?

#148 Lee on 08.21.15 at 9:32 am

#134,

Keep your bonds short short short. Favour corporate over government too. I say bonds never more than 15% of portfolio. Too much of a drag on growth.

I say international should never be more than 10%. U.S. etfs are for all intents and purposes international companies so you get enough international exposure through them.

Bad advice on international. You are missing out on the big moves from ECB QE. — Garth

#149 Llewelyn on 08.21.15 at 9:34 am

Is there a logical explanation of why the yield on Canadian sovereign bonds is significantly lower than the yield on bonds issued by the United States. Somebody in the world must still have a pretty good opinion about the economic health of Canada. Not me that is for sure!

The 5 year bond rates of countries with very weak economies are well over 10.0% while the 5 year bond rate offered by Canada is less than 0.7% per annum.

I just do not get why sophisticated investors would choose to purchase Canadian bonds when the hottest economy on the planet and the driver of the world’s reserve currency is offering bonds paying over twice the annual yield.

Am I the only one curious about who is holding the majority of our sovereign debt and whether there is any risk of a change of heart in the near future.

#150 not 1st on 08.21.15 at 9:41 am

Garth, in case you missed it, every asset class is dropping in price now…everywhere, even the vaunted USA. I would say that makes another GFC a distinct possibility and now banks and govt are going to have to pull a rabbit out of their hat again to stimulate this sucker.

Mrs Yellin will be sitting on her hands for quite a while I am afraid. She better spend her time starting up QE again.

It never fails. Any downturn and people are ready to run like rabbits. Go back and review the comments posted here in 2011. Amusing. — Garth

#151 Pete on 08.21.15 at 10:12 am

#149
Is there a logical explanation of why the yield on Canadian sovereign bonds is significantly lower than the yield on bonds issued by the United States. Somebody in the world must still have a pretty good opinion about the economic health of Canada. Not me that is for sure!
——————–
I am also puzzled by this. Who on earth would buy a Canada 5-year bond at half the yield of the equivalent U.S.? The only logical explanations I can think of are

1. There are institutional investors forced to buy Canadian bonds regardless of the price.

2. There is a general expectation in the bond market that Canada is in for a period of deflation along with significant currency appreciation (Mark anyone??). Or at least significantly lower inflation than the U.S.

#152 Leo Trollstoy on 08.21.15 at 10:17 am

I see bill C51 as a key reason to vote for Mulcair since he has said he will remove it. Why do you think he will back out? Thx

They always do.

Canada is a member of the Five Eyes. Person at the top will always support mass surveillance. Always.

#153 Smoking Man on 08.21.15 at 10:20 am

#142 BT on 08.21.15 at 8:53 am
……..

God damn grammar Nazis…..

Listen up, my version of englush is way better than the official version.

When you insult the way I write, what your are actually doing is glorifying the very people that trained you to be a happy and dumbed down obedient slave..

#154 Godth on 08.21.15 at 10:32 am

Plunge Protection Teams of the World, Unite!
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug15/PPT-unite8-15.html

Is it October yet? It’s not 2011, I’m pretty sure – though the Chinese probably wish it was.

#155 The Other Chris on 08.21.15 at 10:33 am

I have the same question as Llewelyn #149… why are Canadian bond yields lower than US bond yields?

I can’t make heads or tails of it.

#156 eddy on 08.21.15 at 10:33 am

@jean
Re mulcair and c51, chretien promised to kill gst.
Bottom line, no one asked for and no one wants c51
Maybe mulcair can pull it off

#157 Shawn on 08.21.15 at 10:35 am

Why the Low Canadian Government Bond Yields?

#149 Llewelyn on 08.21.15 at 9:34 am asked”

Is there a logical explanation of why the yield on Canadian sovereign bonds is significantly lower than the yield on bonds issued by the United States.

******************************************
Great question and something that I have long wondered about.

In part it is due to banking regulations that treat strongly encourage or require Canada’s banks to hold some of these bonds. Ditto life insurance regualtions. Insurers hold these.

In part it is what Buffett calls the “institutional imperative” Big pension funds hold these bonds because all the other big pension funds are doing it. It is always safer to fail with the crowd then risk failing out on your own.

Due to regulations a lot of investments are sort of captive to Canada and can’t just go to the U.S.

Another example if that, a Canadian bond fund is mandated to invest in Canadian bonds.

Also a huge amount of reliance on past results and confirmation bias. Bonds have given great returns as interest rates fell. They keep doing what has worked in the past.

#158 Randy Randerson on 08.21.15 at 10:35 am

#86 Paul on 08.20.15 at 9:50 pm

Must be a realturd not liking my disdain of his chosen career/joke path. And thanks for your concern, I’m financially independent and living the freedom first lifestyle.

#159 -=jwk=- on 08.21.15 at 10:38 am

On the price of oil, when its going down the predictions are for it to go down to zero. When it is going up, the predictions are for it to go to infinity. So whenever some one says Oil will be $20 a barrel…yeah right. Those same people were calling for $200 a barrel less than a year ago!

#160 Ronaldo on 08.21.15 at 10:38 am

”Maybe try a spell checker and people will understand you – don’t let your lack of education hold you back.”

Spelling is ”so yesterday”. Izintit?

#161 Ronaldo on 08.21.15 at 10:47 am

#129 Vanecdotal on 08.21.15 at 1:58

” perhaps big player in oil sandsbox goes tatas up and pulls up stakes? So mysterious GT… and a bit foreboding.

Is it time for squirrel recipes?”

They don’t need to go tatas up to move out, they are going to head south now that we have the dippers ruling Alberta. Why stay and be taxed to death? Alberta in for some big problems indeed. Give it another 6 months and you’ll see.

#162 Bob Santarossa on 08.21.15 at 10:59 am

Alberta real estate will tank soon enough…’been thru 2 of those corrections to know better.

When job losses hit home the desperate sell at any price, the norm for Alberta. Right now EI up 4% over last year…a matter of time before the rapid fire sale after EI runs out.

YVR real estate shouldn’t be far behind. Still a hewer and drawer province and last time I checked commodities are not doing so well.

Real estate is not an industry onto it’s own. It depends on people with job security and enough money to cover the mortgage. When job losses begin that game is over and the market will correct as it did in 2009 for those that have amnesia – recall about a 20% correction then.

It will get ugly people…pray for a recession with few job losses.

#163 Randy Randerson on 08.21.15 at 11:06 am

#126 NoName on 08.21.15 at 1:30 am

Dang, so realturds will never qualify for EI? I bet the wife and kids of realturds (possibly Paul @ 86) will still love him as they starve, because realturds spend all their moneys on granite countertops and BMW/Benz/hot toys.

Oh the irony. I sure enjoy watching people squirm whilst I watch with my cup of tea, and sit on my porfolio as it grows.

#164 gut check on 08.21.15 at 11:08 am

#137 jean on 08.21.15 at 8:05 am
Smoking Man said: “NDP will win, what you dogs don’t know is the machine is backing Tommy Boy. You will know this when he doesn’t ‘t crush bill C51.”
****
Please expand on this. I see bill C51 as a key reason to vote for Mulcair since he has said he will remove it. Why do you think he will back out? Thx
_____________________________

Because he isn’t in control. Whoever wins will implement c-51 and the TPP.

it’s a given, because it’s what the WORLD players want. the world players already control the media and the high courts, the money system and the government.

#165 Mike T. on 08.21.15 at 11:24 am

It looks kind of stupid but I tried to grab a screen shot of something I said at CBC 3 years ago
At CBC I am Kibber!

kibber:

Oil price could fall to $50, Credit Suisse predicts
———–
I predict oil at closer to $25 or $30

bad news for oil companies in Canada

good news for new technology innovations and the environment

3 years ago
0 likes (LOL)
———–
believe me when I tell you I was ridiculed for that statement….but I was right!
build it up
burn it down
so obvious
what else do I know?
ask me about the sun

#166 Mike T. on 08.21.15 at 11:26 am

here is the piece:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oil-price-could-fall-to-50-credit-suisse-predicts-1.1156353

#167 Londoner on 08.21.15 at 11:32 am

#150 not 1st

Not everything. Bonds and some Reits are catching a bid. I sold some of my biggest index holdings last week (S&P 500, FTSE 100 and even my small holdings of TSX 60). How did I know? I didn’t, but all the research notes from IBs were saying that sentiment indicators were deteriorating. I will look to rebalance fixed income, but not yet – still a while to go.

#168 GregW on 08.21.15 at 11:35 am

Hi Garth,
Re: “In the days to come, I am told, you will hear of a major industrial collapse.”

(As an understatement)
This wouldn’t be good for anyone ‘if’ it happened.
Especially the people/families directly affected, and the industries supply chain peoples/families. Of course the stock holder won’t be happy, hope they don’t have it all in one place?
I’m assume most of them (especially families) are simply hoping it’s not coming or totally unaware.
But ‘if’ it takes place, it’ll be on the front page for sure.

#169 Londoner on 08.21.15 at 11:39 am

Btw, a few of us posted on here when fixed income was being sold off. But, for reason, everyone thought the bond bubble was about to collapse – weird.

#170 Shawn on 08.21.15 at 11:44 am

Banking…

Why do I waste my time…but…it’s a new day so here is one more.

#94 Blacksheep on 08.20.15 at 10:23 pm
Shawn the brave,

We have covered all of this before (archives) and you simply, cannot win this debate.

You keep trying to find fault with my stance, but what your missing is, I am simply cutting and pasting from the gold standard, that is the Bank of England document. It’s not me your arguing with, it’s them.

So Shawn buddy, please stop….at this point, you truly are, just humiliating yourself.

**************************************
Well it would be nice to know what is under debate. what is your stance, other than that I am a “liar”. I listed a number of characteristics of banking a few days ago and asked which you disagree with. You failed to do so.

Thank you for clarifying that you have no actual knowledge or education in finance and are just quoting and then misinterpreting a bank of England paper. A paper that in no way concludes that banking is evil nor does it say that commercial banks do not earn their money. I have disagreed with absolutely nothing in the Bank of England Paper. You have claimed that my observation that bank deposits (owned by customers) fund bank loans contradicts the bank paper. It does not. When a loan and deposit is simultaneously created one cannot live without the other. See any bank balance sheet. But I forget you don’t know how to read a balance sheet. You have no finance or accounting education, I take it?

You have simply taken a gain of knowledge quoted from a bank paper and incorrectly interpreted that to draw the preposterous conclusion that banking is evil and that it charges money on loans when the bank has no cost to fund the loans. How then to explain why banks still do pay interest on GIC deposits?

God, what a waste of time. But hopefully a few people here will learn something.

#171 GregW on 08.21.15 at 11:52 am

Re: “In the days to come, I am told, you will hear of a major industrial collapse.”

If the ‘industry’ were the Global ‘military industrial complex’; that would be a good thing in the long run, perhaps, IMO. Yes there would be lots of adjustment for many in the short term. But what are the odds, pretty low, which is a sham.
And it’s not like there isn’t already going to be lots of adjustment, come soon than you might think, with all the robots with AI in the works.

#172 old gringo on 08.21.15 at 11:58 am

“In the days to come, I am told, you will hear of a major industrial collapse.”

My guess would be the coal industry.

#173 Tiger1960 on 08.21.15 at 12:01 pm

Paul 86 <
You hope !
That's your problem!

#174 waiting on the westcoast on 08.21.15 at 12:03 pm

Where’s Mark when you need him… it appears that we have inflation… ;-)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canadas-inflation-rate-rises-to-13-in-july/article26045859/

#175 GregW on 08.21.15 at 12:11 pm

Hi #164 gut check,
Re: c-51 and the TPP.
I believe only one party leader brought up both in the TV debate.
But what are her odds of getting in as PM, pretty low most likely is my guess.
She also said some like (not a direct quote),
The PM didn’t recognize that last recession and seems to be doing it again.

#176 SWL1976 on 08.21.15 at 12:19 pm

#164 gut check

#137 jean on 08.21.15 at 8:05 am

Smoking Man said: “NDP will win, what you dogs don’t know is the machine is backing Tommy Boy. You will know this when he doesn’t ‘t crush bill C51.”

****

Please expand on this. I see bill C51 as a key reason to vote for Mulcair since he has said he will remove it. Why do you think he will back out? Thx
_____________________________

Because he isn’t in control. Whoever wins will implement c-51 and the TPP.

it’s a given, because it’s what the WORLD players want. the world players already control the media and the high courts, the money system and the government.

—————————

Now let’s not let them control our minds.

#120 len – Good post len

I agree with what you say about no longer giving the real crazies much time or thought other then to check in on how bad they are screwing us over. Now it’s all about damage control and real solutions to real problems.

They need us more then we need them, we just don’t know that yet

They do. Hence their desire for complete control

#177 bdy sktrn on 08.21.15 at 12:37 pm

crude at 40.1 – bye bye 40’s

#178 Dept of Highways on 08.21.15 at 12:38 pm

#30 Smoking Man on 08.20.15 at 7:25 pm
The senior in charge of bullet holes in the highway signs is unable to execute her duties with her usual thoroughness due to her lack of mobility…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ha9S0LXPHx8

#179 Slim on 08.21.15 at 12:44 pm

With all due respect, but I find the ageism displayed in the above photo just not right.

Cats and dogs…OK! I do enjoying reading your blogs.

#180 chapter 9 on 08.21.15 at 12:48 pm

#137 Jean
Bill C-51

Junior has already caved in on bill C-51 I assume that the RCMP,CSIS,CSE have given him a heads up that “If you kill this law and their is a terrorist attack on Canadians, it will be on your head not ours”. Oh, that would mean I would be in a world of shit, and I may not get re elected or thanks for reminding me the Liberal party introduced bill C-36 after 9/11 which contained equal and damaging legislation also challenging the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Better to move on to other things like how I am going to tax the hell out of ever one. And Tom is different, not a chance, besides CSE just moved into a new $1.2 billion dollar building and I doubt the spy community would like it turned into a day care!!

#181 Apocalypse2015 on 08.21.15 at 12:51 pm

Epic global, regional and national forces coming into alignment at this moment.

Alerts going off all around the web and the world today.

More to say later, but wow, is this ever looking like a perfect storm.

#182 TurnerNation on 08.21.15 at 1:00 pm

Come January’s 10k TFSA time so many high yielders will be even cheaper. Getting killed now:

KEG.UN
PZA
USH.UN
HBF.UN
DIV

#183 Einstürzende Neubauten on 08.21.15 at 1:15 pm

Am in a need of enlightenment re: Calgary real estate prices failing to react to 40$ oil. :-)

#184 Yikes on 08.21.15 at 1:16 pm

Wow, after looking at this survey and people’s responses, we are screwed…

https://www.ratesupermarket.ca/blog/mothers-mortgage/

Especially the responses around “Low mortgage rates contribute to overheated home prices in Canada” and “I worry home prices will continue to rise unsustainably” and “Canadian real estate is still a safe investment”

The last two seem to contradict each other… if something is unsustainable… it probably isn’t too safe…

#185 yyc not retired on 08.21.15 at 1:18 pm

@182

Its only 10K if harper stays in.. which is the only reason he’s getting my vote! I love the TFSA!

#186 GregW on 08.21.15 at 1:20 pm

Hi #109 Nosty,
This article (title in link) has a few issue within it, with implications possibly, if true. That include,
‘The World Bank weighed in claiming oil prices will drop another $10 a barrel if…’
http://www.globalresearch.ca/israel-bombs-syria-is-it-prelude-towards-a-full-scale-war/5470586
And #181 Apocalypse2015, yes a number if thing in the news today, like N.K.
Hopefully it’ll all cools down before getting any hotter.

#187 Rebs on 08.21.15 at 1:22 pm

Hard times always hatch politicians with simple, compelling solutions.
————–
Kinda reminds me of the Nazi horror. It would have been much more difficult for Hitler to take power if the economy didn’t totally suck at the time and all anyone wanted was a job.

—————
They’re also toxic to the guys in power who understand nothing’s simple any more. Too bad. Voters want to change the channel instead of getting educated.
—————
It seems like every party’s campaign slogan contains the word ‘change’ (was also Obama’s chant). But just how much can be changed really when the world sucks in general, people are dishonest and no one wants to sacrifice anything.

#188 Rational Optimist on 08.21.15 at 1:24 pm

68 Ret on 08.20.15 at 8:47 pm

U.S. Steel can’t collapse again. Barely anyone is left in Hamilton- they have not produced steel in nearly five years. Last I heard, they were trying to get property tax rebates from Haldimand County because their facility was “vacant” when they locked their employees out.

The city fathers in Hamilton are now hoping the Indians will buy Stelco from U.S. steel and hire ten thousand people. Yeah, right.

#189 bdy sktrn on 08.21.15 at 1:27 pm

us 10yr to drop below 2% , again.

i guess the recovery is on hold for a bit longer.

Equities fall, bond prices rise and yields drop. How does that have anything to do with economic recovery? — Garth

#190 pinstripe on 08.21.15 at 1:46 pm

the coffee shop was very busy this morning.

more tidbits showing up about the culture within the fed cpc.

check out the link. “Breaking News! conservative party coverup”

https://www.facebook.com/tothepointtv

#191 gut check on 08.21.15 at 1:51 pm

#181 Apocalypse2015 on 08.21.15 at 12:51 pm
Epic global, regional and national forces coming into alignment at this moment.

Alerts going off all around the web and the world today.

More to say later, but wow, is this ever looking like a perfect storm.
_______________________________________

Yes, it’s a doomy day.
Nothing in Canadian news whatsoever about Israel’s latest aventures, either. I’ve been checking since last night – one little blip way down on the page on CBC but it didn’t last long.

#192 Balmuto on 08.21.15 at 1:52 pm

“Equities fall, bond prices rise and yields drop. How does that have anything to do with economic recovery?” — Garth

That’s a strange statement. You should know that the stock market is considered one of the most important leading economic indicators. It’s included as a component in the Statscan Composite of Leading Indicators for that reason.

And markets are close to record highs. Stop being a drama queen. — Garth

#193 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 08.21.15 at 1:54 pm

#158 Smoking Man on 08.20.15 at 2:04 pm
I was forced into retirement by the tax farms legal dept. Apparently consultants not allowed to trade, 30 day hold, who knew?.
What did I do, I dusted off an old app that I bartered for a new engine a few years ago. It’s a simplified easy to use accounting and process automation tool for auto repair shops. I’ve only been flogging it for about a week now and my sales are just shy of 20k. Pure Profit. My expenses, A bit of gas, a few pit stops at the nudy bar and lunch.
Do I need the loot, hell no, I’m I desperate to get out other house. Hell ya… I hate golf, and weather shit for boating.
___________________________________________
To be honest Smoking Man it sounds more like you want to get out of the house to get away from your wife! Still sounds like she would try to murder you. Is she aware off your lustiness for the young hotties. As for the money be honest now you need it for her to feed her slot machines at Niagara Falls Casino. Lets guess now your going to a casino again tonight? Every time we check in on you your drinking Vino at the Casino!

#194 TRT on 08.21.15 at 1:55 pm

When is a good time to get in on Canadian banks again?

#195 bdy sktrn on 08.21.15 at 2:16 pm

isn;t a recovery supposed to look like “Equities rise, bond prices fall and yields plump.

sure is good to have some bonds lately though.
who knew this balance thing actually worked so well?
(with extra light on energy.)

real costcoian value is at 1500-1650 sp500

“Chinaslowdown Calculation, that’s cool with no regrets.” – the late, great Doug (Slug)

life in canada is awesome, we have all won HUGE in life by landing here. i’m finding too much fun in life to even read all the ‘stuff’ in the comments daily.

ps; smokey if your shop s/w is that good i’ll sell 100 units in van for – you get 30% for sitting on your @ss

#196 Feds raise rates this year pronounced dead on 08.21.15 at 2:18 pm

It is being postponed after the coming global crisis resolved.

#197 Shawn on 08.21.15 at 2:23 pm

When to Buy Bank Stocks

#194 TRT on 08.21.15 at 1:55 pm asked:

When is a good time to get in on Canadian banks again?

*******************************************
No one knows really, but if you are afraid to buy now then perhaps you will prefer to wait until they are at record highs again.

According to some delusional people on this blog, banks make interest on loans but face no costs to fund the loans, in which case perhaps everyday is the best time to buy bank stocks.

Actually best time: maybe 50 years ago.

Best available time: today.

#198 MF on 08.21.15 at 2:33 pm

Crazy day here and all over the internet. Lots of people crying that the sky is falling. Human emotion is predictable (at times). Wonder when this “crisis” will be over and is anyone buying anything yet?

#191 gut check on 08.21.15 at 1:51 pm

I read it. A rocket was fired into Israeli territory either by mistake or by people trying to drag Israel into the conflict in Syria. More likely the latter than the former as usual. There is already too much bloodshed in the area.

MF

#199 MarcRichard on 08.21.15 at 2:38 pm

Recently I stumbled on Jeff Rubin’s blog who wrote a book on how we would soon be reaching peek oil and how prices were going to hit the stratosphere… 250$ a barrel or something… That being said, I read the book and although a great read, the reverse was actually true despite his in depth knowledge on the subject matter.

He too, has been arguing for the last twenty years that home prices in T.O. were much overvalued and has recently given up on predicting there downfall.

Without a pin to prick the bubble nothing will force it to deflate.

In fact it was his best investment of his life until his unfortunate divorce.

My point is, although your arguments are based on sound facts and reason buying a house is not a rational decision… It is a place you live in along with neighbors, schools, proximity to downtown, trees… You know meth for people who don’t do drugs…

For some, a life of Indentured Servitude is a rational decision, especially if you never wish to smell the roses…

Maybe there are no roses.

#200 TRT on 08.21.15 at 2:45 pm

Canadian Dollar just get hammered today vs world currencies. USD is taking it on the chin but the loonie is a whole another story.

#201 Blacksheep on 08.21.15 at 2:52 pm

Shawn the obtuse # 170,

“Well it would be nice to know what is under debate. what is your stance, other than that I am a “liar”. I listed a number of characteristics of banking a few days ago and asked which you disagree with. You failed to do so.”
————————————————
Well since you asked.

What you really mean is, you listed a number of irrelevant distractions, hoping I would take the bait, veer of topic, allowing you to muddy the waters, but I refused to do so.

Please avoid all other distractions and simply address your comment pasted below:
————————————————
Shawn # 151, on 08.19.15 at 2:02 pm

“We put money in a bank and our neighbor borrows it”
————————————————
Please carefully read the following quote from our favourite BoE pdf and find the section that supports your comment (blatant lie) from: 08.19.15 at 2:02 pm

“One common MISCONCEPTION is that banks act simply as intermediaries, lending out the ,deposits that savers place with them. In this view deposits are typically ‘created’ by the saving decisions of households, and banks then ‘lend out’ those existing deposits to borrowers, for example to companies looking to finance investment or individuals wanting to purchase houses.”

“Saving DOES NOT by itself increase the deposits or ‘funds available’ for banks to lend. Indeed, viewing banks simply as intermediaries ignores the fact that, in reality in the modern economy, commercial banks are the creators of deposit money.”

“This article explains how, RATHER than banks lending out deposits that are placed with them, the act of lending creates deposits — the reverse of the sequence typically described in textbooks.”
———————————————–
Sorry dude, but your education is working against you because with all that knowledge, there is not a chance in hell you can claim ignorance, which only leaves, wilful deception….

#202 MF on 08.21.15 at 2:53 pm

#199 MarcRichard on 08.21.15 at 2:38 pm

“My point is, although your arguments are based on sound facts and reason buying a house is not a rational decision… It is a place you live in along with neighbors, schools, proximity to downtown, trees… You know meth for people who don’t do drugs…”

I disagree. I think TO prices are sky high because of speculation alone. A million condos, each one close to all the laughable ‘amenities’, and they are still 400k +? Something doesn’t add up. Same goes for SFH’s. A mil for a tiny nothing = laughable. Prices in TO corrected in 1989 because of rampant speculation and yes it will be the same this time. It’s all driven by everything Garth has mentioned (financial illiteracy at the top at the top of the list).

When this thing bursts it will all disappear in a puff of speculative dust.

MF

#203 gut check on 08.21.15 at 2:57 pm

#198 MF on 08.21.15 at 2:33 pm

I read it. A rocket was fired into Israeli territory either by mistake or by people trying to drag Israel into the conflict in Syria. More likely the latter than the former as usual. There is already too much bloodshed in the area.

*************************

I’m sure what you meant to say was that Israel claims rockets were fired into their Northern Territory… but WHERE did you read it? A Canadian source? Try finding one today – try finding one that admits that Israel responded with ground troops as well as via air and that they are doing it again today.

#204 Shawn on 08.21.15 at 3:11 pm

Banking

Blacksheep, none of what you posted was disputed by me. The created deposits are owned by customers and fund loans. Yes banks create money.

What are the implications?

are banks evil and useless?

Do banks get paid for loans they had no cost to fund?

Why do banks pay deposit interest on GICs?

Which of the statements that I made the other day on the list do you disagree with?

Joe gets a loan and a deposit is created by the bank with a key stroke or two. The deposit and loan balance each other as you said. Joe buys your car and transfers the deposit to your account.

Do you consider the deposit to be your money, your savings?

Is your savings deposit now not offsetting Joe’s loan?

I can excuse your ignorance of banking but am tired of your ignorance to me. I never knowingly posted anything untrue on this site. I deceive no one. I post under my real name. Many people here know exactly who I am based on past links to my web site. You?

#205 gut check on 08.21.15 at 3:12 pm

soooooooo…
no one has mentioned the DOW so far.
it’s kinda interesting though, right?

-439 as of this typing.

#206 bdy sktrn on 08.21.15 at 3:16 pm

this is getting real.

sp-56 to -59 in seconds.

#207 bdy sktrn on 08.21.15 at 3:19 pm

looks like the trajectory of this guy
(191ft record cliff jump.)

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CC4QtwIwBGoVChMIqNaKhvK6xwIVhzuICh0DYQIm&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DDNa1GiDyjtU&ei=cHnXVajeFYf3oASDwomwAg&usg=AFQjCNHA6edw6ujKh3fXEAHRXUisJ9nlQA&sig2=htyD8G-OC1mm0rLyOF1N6A

#208 Dow in Correction on 08.21.15 at 3:23 pm

So much for the Fed hiking in September.

#209 Not Shawn on 08.21.15 at 3:28 pm

Good job Blacksheep! Shawn is a schill. Trying to mislead the public. ANY easy google search proves that he could not possibly make this mistake by accident. Google -MONEY IS DEBT.

#210 Godth on 08.21.15 at 3:35 pm

#201 Blacksheep on 08.21.15 at 2:52 pm

You might as well go explain it to a rock. Concrete thinking ideologues …well maybe if Warren Buffet told him how it works…

Plus it smacks of fraud and makes it less ‘real’ therefore he’s less ‘special’.

It’s funny watching you two go at it though, he’s one disingenuous fellow. You both have said it’s a good thing (bank money) but then he argues that you think it’s evil, for one example.

#211 Bill on 08.21.15 at 3:38 pm

Well this outcome was predictable and Garth is bang on…The trickle down has just begun.
95% cash and no mortgages…that’s all I could do.
Cash might be paying diddly but its making a ton against a crumbling market and economy. I was praying for this as it brings opportunity at some point :)

The S&P market is 6% below its peak. I would not exactly call it a ‘crumble.’ — Garth

#212 Estrella on 08.21.15 at 3:45 pm

I believe the market has just accomplished what a rate increase was intended to do. Today we witness some air being let out of the balloon. I predict no rate increase next month. Maybe not even this year. Good sales though. I am thinking of making my RRSP contributions early this year but not sure how low this will go.

#213 MF on 08.21.15 at 3:47 pm

#203 gut check on 08.21.15 at 2:57 pm

No I didn’t mean to say that at all. You neglected to mention that rocket attack on Israeli territory that precipitated the response so I posted it for everyone to see.

And I read about it after googling “Israel news”. 39 million sites showed up by the way: (https://www.google.ca/#q=israel+news&tbm=nws)

I got my information from the UK based “The Guardian”, not a Canadian source:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/21/israel-fires-missiles-syria-golan-heights-rocket-attacks

Nice spin though.

MF

#214 TurnerNation on 08.21.15 at 3:48 pm

From my days at the retail brokerage I’d expect lots of margin call selling on Monday.
And Ma and Pa will read Barrons this weekend and freak.
Balanced ports…went way overweight Treasury Blondes 2 days ago.

#215 MF on 08.21.15 at 3:52 pm

#205 gut check on 08.21.15 at 3:12 pm
soooooooo…
no one has mentioned the DOW so far.
it’s kinda interesting though, right?

-439 as of this typing.

Kept falling all day. I have some cash reserves that I am waiting to use but predicting a bottom is such a fool’s game. Watch it goes up next week.

MF

#216 Goddeth on 08.21.15 at 4:06 pm

The S&P market is 6% below its peak. I would not exactly call it a ‘crumble.’ — Garth
These are just the ‘tremors’. The BIG show in mid Sept.
25 countries stock markets are in collapse.
KAABOOM! Bye Bye Miss American Pie.

#217 Smoking Man on 08.21.15 at 4:16 pm

#193 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 08.21.15 at 1:54 pm
#158 Smoking Man on 08.20.15 at 2:04 pm
I was forced into retirement by the tax farms legal dept. Apparently consultants not allowed to trade, 30 day hold, who knew?.
What did I do, I dusted off an old app that I bartered for a new engine a few years ago. It’s a simplified easy to use accounting and process automation tool for auto repair shops. I’ve only been flogging it for about a week now and my sales are just shy of 20k. Pure Profit. My expenses, A bit of gas, a few pit stops at the nudy bar and lunch.
Do I need the loot, hell no, I’m I desperate to get out other house. Hell ya… I hate golf, and weather shit for boating.
___________________________________________
To be honest Smoking Man it sounds more like you want to get out of the house to get away from your wife! Still sounds like she would try to murder you. Is she aware off your lustiness for the young hotties. As for the money be honest now you need it for her to feed her slot machines at Niagara Falls Casino. Lets guess now your going to a casino again tonight? Every time we check in on you your drinking Vino at the Casino….
……..

Ha you’re good.

At Senica in Salamanca tonight. As far as the young hotties , who do you think took the pic.. My wife of cource,

IM just as wipped as the next dude…you cant be a man married to the same woman for over 30 years and still have a set of balls. Its against nature.

Hotties are my sons buddies.

#218 Paul on 08.21.15 at 4:22 pm

MarcRichard 199:

“For some, a life of Indentured Servitude is a rational decision, especially if you never wish to smell the roses…

Maybe there are no roses.”

What a load. The people i know who live lives of “indentured servitude” are the ones who work in cubes and commute for hours in service to a mortgage. By contrast, we’ve had the time and cash to travel and the flexibility to build rewarding careers as freelancers because we rent. Every rose has a thorn, my friend.

#219 Godth on 08.21.15 at 4:25 pm

There’s a clear solution to this problem:
Not There Yet
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-21/not-there-yet

Look at those pretty charts.

Looking forward to that Sept. rate hike, and then October awaits – Frack!

#220 bdy sktrn on 08.21.15 at 4:26 pm

#211 Bill on 08.21.15 at 3:38 pm
.
Cash might be paying diddly …
—————-
us cash is doing ok.

#221 Julia on 08.21.15 at 4:33 pm

#38 Harbour
I guess the world isn’t buying as many diamonds as they were.
***********
Maybe the Ashley Madison debacle will contribute to increased demand?

#222 Blacksheep on 08.21.15 at 4:33 pm

Shawn the humiliated, # 204

“I can excuse your ignorance of banking but am tired of your ignorance to me”

You want respect, earn it.

“I never knowingly posted anything untrue on this site. I deceive no one.”

Explain your comment to us all….oh financially enlightened one:

“Shawn # 151, on 08.19.15 at 2:02 pm”

“We put money in a bank and our neighbor borrows it”

Copy and paste the section of this BoE document that supports this/your claim and I will NEVER show my face again at Greater Fool.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q102.pdf

Fail to do so and be branded permanently, as the liar you are.

#223 Julia on 08.21.15 at 4:34 pm

#55 Andrew Woburn

Nightmare rental for short term? Read this one on long term rental nightmares:
http://www.torontolife.com/informer/features/2015/08/20/jesse-gubb-the-tenant-from-hell/

#224 cramar on 08.21.15 at 4:37 pm

211 Bill on 08.21.15 at 3:38 pm

The S&P market is 6% below its peak. I would not exactly call it a ‘crumble.’ — Garth

As of the close more like 7.7%. But, I believe that you were warning of a possible 10% correction a while ago.

Corrections are normal and useful. They keep asset bubbles from forming, and almost always signal good entry points. — Garth

#225 Joe2.0 on 08.21.15 at 4:51 pm

Any bets that QE 4 really QE5 is announced next week.
If not then be aware that life support has been shut off.
Enter fear.

What a dumb comment. — Garth

#226 has to be the right cash on 08.21.15 at 5:00 pm

“95% cash and no mortgages…that’s all I could do.”

if you’re 100% in Canadian cash you may as well look for a place in Mexico because that’s where our Dollarette is headed…

#227 Bill on 08.21.15 at 5:01 pm

#220 bdy sktrn on 08.21.15 at 4:26 pm

I’ll take 2.5% right now and any % markets fall is profit. Fortunately I grabbed 6 fig of US 6 month ago.but should have been 7. lol
I know a fantastic Hedge Fund manager and we have most our loot invested in the US..The dollar will dip here but then continue higher…He said 6 months ago on commodities..”STICK A FORK IN IT they are done for a long while”
We are in DEEP DOO DOO….
Well worth the time
https://soundcloud.com/cknw/worrying-about-the-market-business-comment-aug-20

#228 Godth on 08.21.15 at 5:05 pm

#213 MF on 08.21.15 at 3:47 pm
hmmm…
http://www.globalresearch.ca/british-sas-special-forces-dressed-up-as-isis-rebels-fighting-assad-in-syria/5466944

#229 gut check on 08.21.15 at 5:25 pm

#213 MF on 08.21.15 at 3:47 pm
——————————–

You’re right, I should have said, “In response to a reported rocket attack out of syria, israel has retaliated…”

Spin? Who is spinning what?
All I know is that unless you knew to google it, you wouldn’t find mention of this on the MSM in Canada. (maybe not even the US)

I find that curious.

Do you not? Especially given the Iran deal to which Israel is opposed? Given the nuclear status of this whole mess? Given the world instability?

I think it’s a big deal and if our media doesn’t then they have their heads up someone’s @ss. Whose? Whose @ss is it? I can’t figure out why Caitlyn Jenner is on the CBC News front page and this isn’t.

#230 Ken Nash on 08.21.15 at 5:34 pm

#98 AfterTheHouseSold wagging your tail in pound :-)

The company in North Bay, building street cars, is Bombardier. It used to be Hawker Siddeley’s Canada Car plant, prior to being bought by Bombardier. Ditto for a plant in New Brunswick I think, which makes wheels for trains and street cars.

In addition, Bombardier purchased de Havilland’s aircraft operation in Downsview, birth place of the Beaver, WWII Mosquito, Avro Arrow, Otter and Dash 7. But not before, in 1988, Boeing buying de Havilland to steal it’s stol technology. Lay everybody off. It was purchase in 1992 by Bombardier.

Domestic ownership matters for key, strategic industries.

I was proud when Mayor Miller said Toronto was buying it’s street cars from Bombardier. It’s unfortunate to hear they’re struggling to deliver. A good federal government, in addition to ordering, foreign built Globemasters for a zillion bucks. It could have order some more Buffalos from Bombardier at the same time. Some Canadair water bombers, also owned by Bombardier, to cool things down.

Just because a company is Canadian and not foreign like GM or Chrysler shouldn’t mean it isn’t bail out worthy. Especially, when it’s precarious market position, is in large part from foreign political intervention, supporting their own aerospace.

As for those who say Bombardier is the maker of their own misfortune over the delayed C class. Planes are complex machines. How do you spell on time? – F35. The C class has passed it’s Canadian requirements and just completed it’s warm climate tests. 85% of the way there. The perfect time for a foreign competitor to pounce. It’s really upsetting me.

I still have some unresolved resentment when RIM was blocked from buying Northern Telecom. Too much concentration in the Canadian market place? Give me a break. Together it could have had world dominance. Separate…. take over targets.

I live in Durham, Ontario and GM is huge employer with it’s Oshawa plant and head office located here. About a year ago the local paper reported GM had inferred to the Region it should prepare for the plant closing. Contrary to what Prime Minister Mulroney wanted Canadians to believe Mexicans aren’t all that dumb and can make stuff too.

What’s this all got to do with real estate?

Like Garth said, folks worried about their job, don’t want to spend much or take risk.

#231 family beagle on 08.21.15 at 5:56 pm

Grampy died peaceful in his sleep, unlike his passengers screaming in terror. Long geriatric, utilities, processed food mfg.
TZA, FAZ, SPXU, DXD are letters of the alphabet and recent additions to my dictionary. Who knew? ;)

#232 Godth on 08.21.15 at 5:59 pm

#222 Blacksheep on 08.21.15 at 4:33 pm
Trumping the Federal Debt Without Playing the Default Card
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/08/trumping-the-federal-debt-without-playing-the-default-card.html

#233 Not Shawn on 08.21.15 at 6:10 pm

What a dumb comment. — Garth
Corrections are normal and useful. They keep asset bubbles from forming, and almost always signal good entry points. — Garth

And Garth played- “Nearer, My God, to Thee”

Shawn’s an Idiot, Liar, Dis-info agent.
Money As Debt- Not Money is Debt-
Although both work.

#234 smoking hotties on 08.21.15 at 6:19 pm

#217 Smoking Man on 08.21.15 at 4:16 pm

Hotties are my sons buddies.

How disappointing.

#235 for the record on 08.21.15 at 6:25 pm

Corrections are normal and useful. They keep asset bubbles from forming, and almost always signal good entry points. — Garth

Let’s be happy then for this very useful day:

The Dow has not seen back-to-back drops of more than 300 points since November 2008.

The S&P 500 fell more than 5% for the week — it hasn’t dropped more than 4% in a week since May 2012, and hasn’t lost 100 points within five days since October 2008.

And the Chicago Board of Exchange’s Volatility Index — the so-called “fear index” — surged more than 25% today and logged its biggest weekly jump ever.

#236 The invisible hand of the market on 08.22.15 at 8:58 am

“This week, in just a few days, the market decided that September is not the best time to raise rates.”

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/how-outlook-for-fed-rate-hike-changed-last-week-2015-8#ixzz3jY1QevLu

#237 Bill on 08.22.15 at 1:09 pm

#224 cramar on 08.21.15 at 4:37 pm
7% is not a crash for sure and I Believe the USA will fair the best but it aint over thats for sure. 25 countries are in crash mode. If you put up a chart of the Loonie and the TSX historicaly TSX never survived. Its heading south in earnist now. Many countries are in the ropes.
China lead the pack and I was able to pin point withing a couple dayz of their peak. Commodities are a huge dead dead canary in the coal mine for sure. The debt is huge iterest rates are in the toilet. Any amo left?
And Harper what a fool on his road show or maybe the sheeple are? Governments are powerless here and usless at creating jobs. Its been 20 plus years with no audit on these crooks and every attempt the parties gang together and block it. They continue pumping the social state and there are a piles of dead beat people collecting cheques as my wife works at RBC.. We may just be pissed enough to move the Ecuador or the Philippines.