The race

HURDLE modified

There’s 40% less trading in gold than normal. Volatility has plummeted. Because nobody cares. Canada’s Barrick Gold has lost half its value in a year and just chopped its dividend 60%. Yesterday the price of oil slipped into the $44-a-pop range, the lowest in four months because everybody now expects the bears to stay out.

Commodities are in a race to the bottom. The world’s pumping out 2,000,000 barrels of crude a day more than is being consumed. Within a month or so, there’ll be no place to put it. In the US alone over 170 million barrels have been added to brimming storage tanks this year. Never been this way in 80 years. So prices have fallen 16% in seven months.

“We want to emphasize that the risks remain substantially skewed to the downside,” Goldman Sachs analysts said on Thursday. So, the expectation is that prices have yet to bottom and could take a very long time to recover. As you might imagine, this ain’t good for Canada.

But what’s even worse than falling prices? You bet – higher taxes. And, apparently, the NDP.

Alberta-based Canadian Natural Resources yesterday says that province’s new socialist government just turned a profit into a loss, but jacking the corporate tax rate by 20%. CNRL reported $405 million in red ink in the second quarter, saying it would have been profitable had Rachel Notley not decided to milk corporations (which create jobs). The tax grab increased its deferred tax liability by almost $580 million which a company exec says, “translates into lower future cash flows and therefore lowers reinvestment in the business.”

What does “reinvestment” and “cash flow” mean? Oh yes, employment. And increasing the burden on companies like this one, in distress as its revenues plunged by almost $2 billion, seems about as dumbass as politicians can get.

Replied the premier: “Yes, when you pay a higher corporate tax, it does mean you have a little less profit. But at the end of the day, Albertans clearly considered that issue very thoroughly in the last election and determined that when it comes time for all of us to pull up our socks and tighten our belts because of the fiscal challenges we find ourselves with, that everybody needs to chip in.”

Companies losing money, slashing their capital budgets and laying off workers, while the government gets bigger and collects more. Pull up those socks, sister. Tighten that belt, brother. The union makes us strong.

Well, enough politics. But it’s not too hard to see what’s coming. Commodity-rich Canada’s on track for a self-inflicted belly wound.

So thank goodness everybody in Canada owns a house, and is rich.

Take Toronto, for example. The metropolis was buzzing yesterday with the release of the latest realtor stats. Average prices up 9.4%! Detached houses jump 10.6%! And urban singles in 416 swell by 14%!

The real estate board was pumped: “As we move towards a new record for home sales this year, it is important to point out that home ownership demand has been driven not only by low borrowing costs, but also by the fact that the GTA economy has been performing quite well, with the unemployment rate lower compared to last year. Home buyers remain confident in the long-term benefits of owning a home.”

Here are some other things it’s important to point out:

  • Sales in July were the lowest level in four months, back to last-winter levels.
  • The average price of a 416 detached shack has fallen below $1 million for the first time since the deep freeze of January.
  • That typical home has declined in market value by about $120,000 since May.
  • While the Bank of Canada rate cut in mid-January had an immediate and explosive impact on house sales and prices, the second one three weeks ago apparently has not.

In other words, it is ending? Is this far more consequential than a seasonal blip?

There comes a point at which the cost of money no longer matters. Mortgages could go to 1% (as they are in Japan) and the market would shrug. Canadians are pickled in debt, facing more inflation from a wounded dollar, stressed out (over 50% couldn’t survive one missed paycheque) and increasingly aware our economy blows. Now it’s all about jobs. Making the payments. Hanging on. And voting.

Yikes.

348 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 08.06.15 at 5:27 pm

Molson-Coors sales down 15% last quarter?
Oh their eponymously-named swill.

#2 Victoria Real Estate Update on 08.06.15 at 5:39 pm

. . . . . . . . Single Family Home Prices. . . . . . .
. . . . . .Percent Increase (year-over-year). . .
. . . . . . . . (x = Toronto, * = Victoria). . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+12%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x .
+11%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+10% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 9%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 8%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 7%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 6%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 4% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 3%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .* .
+ 2%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 1%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
…0%. . . . .x*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
——————————————————————————
. . . . . .July 2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . July 2015

(sources: Toronto’s R/E board, Victoria’s R/E board)

This chart was put together using single family home median price data, averaged over 3 months (3-month median). Median price data is regarded by many as the most valuable and reliable price data and is used extensively in the US.

In Toronto, SFH prices in July skyrocketed 11.6% year-over-year, while in Victoria we saw a disappointing 3.4% gain.

Victoria’s 3.4% increase is slightly more the rate of inflation.

With record low interest rates, prices in Victoria should have skyrocketed over the past year (like in Toronto). That this didn’t happen in Victoria is a clear indication of housing market weakness.

With all of that price-boosting mortgage fraud that has taken place in Canada, prices in Victoria should be setting new all-time highs each month, but that isn’t happening.

Conclusion: Toronto’s housing market is on fire. Victoria’s isn’t.

The local media has published the opinions of realtors several times this year. According to these salespeople, Victoria’s housing market has been invaded by wealthy buyers from China who have recently discovered Victoria. Of course they’ve failed to provide any evidence that this is the case. It isn’t showing up in the price numbers (see chart).

The only data we have on the subject of foreign buyers is that they accounted for 1.6% of sales in Victoria last year.

(The only) three things you need to know about Victoria real estate:

1. Victoria’s housing market is extremely overvalued and in a massive bubble.

2. Canadian 5-year fixed mortgage rates will begin moving higher within 3 months (at a rate of approximately 1% per year).

3. House prices fall as rates rise.

#3 Love my Kia on 08.06.15 at 5:41 pm

If an oil company can’t turn any profit with a 2% increase in tax, then they shouldn’t be in business anyway.

#4 raisemyrent on 08.06.15 at 5:41 pm

I saw the toronto house pumping crap this morning in our elevator marketing screen. sadly, people just don’t get it. some mistakes need to be learned collectively, usually through drastic events. it’s happened many times before (you fill in the blanks). the herd doesn’t really think. smokey’s right.

volkswagen offering 0% for 84 months plus $6k in cash back. can you spell recession?

future herd is going to have a lot of debt to pay back.

#5 pwn3d on 08.06.15 at 5:42 pm

You waited too long. The average SFD house in 416 has fallen in price by $120,000 since May. — Garth
——–

Nah, as I’m sure you’re aware but choose to ignore the market is seasonal. I wouldn’t sell in July/August for that very reason but once the kiddies are back in school the fall is almost as good as the spring for prices. Last year for example the peak month was October, just barely better than May.

Who knows, I may even get one more rate cut before I sell. Woo-hoo.

#6 Boombust on 08.06.15 at 5:44 pm

I’ll be voting NDP all the way. I’m not “scared” one tiny bit.

The same is true for many of my friends and family.

#7 Leo Trollstoy on 08.06.15 at 5:45 pm

Inflation from our wounded dollar is going to be crazy.

#8 pwn3d on 08.06.15 at 5:47 pm

#222 saskatoon on 08.06.15 at 1:15 pm

as far as i know, montreal’s snc lavelin is a subsidiary of grupo ferrovial…

a construction company located in spain.
————-
I supposed even worse than someone who talks about things they know nothing is people too lazy to even google instead of guessing when they’re already on the internet. SNC is a publicly traded company. If you have Canadian mutual funds chances are you own some of it. And by far the biggest shareholder is Caisse de dépôt which is a Quebec pension fund investor.

#9 Yosè on 08.06.15 at 5:50 pm

“If an oil company can’t turn any profit with a 2% increase in tax, then they shouldn’t be in business anyway.”
———————
What an idiot

#10 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 08.06.15 at 5:50 pm

It appears to be a very complicated issue.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/comparing-royalty-rates-in-alberta-saskatchewan-texas-and-north-dakota-1.3071622

#11 Yosè on 08.06.15 at 5:51 pm

“If an oil company can’t turn any profit with a 2% increase in tax, then they shouldn’t be in business anyway.”
————
What an idiot.

#12 Anthony G on 08.06.15 at 5:52 pm

When I look around, I start to think we deserve what’s coming.

#13 Blacksheep on 08.06.15 at 5:53 pm

MF # 263,

“I don’t agree. I think most people have never been less afraid of debt as they are now. People view debt as something to make money off of now, not of servitude like it is viewed here (or historically).”
——————————————————
The velocity of money is dead. It’s slowed like never before.

http://www.economicgreenfield.com/2015/01/30/velocity-of-money-charts-updated-through-january-30-2015/

I think one can get blinded by ones own regional circumstances. RE is still on fire in Van & TO so we assume everybody in the western world wants more debt, but I just don’t think it’s the case. This is why we have zirp to prime the pump post recession, but it just doesn’t seem to be catching, with only the US being the temporary exception.

#14 Waterloo Resident on 08.06.15 at 5:56 pm

Here is a question I would like to ask everyone:

If the global economy is recovering, then isn’t commodities supposed to be recovering in price also, due to increased demand? An improving economy means more need for copper, more need for fertilizer, more need for iron and other raw materials as people buy more ‘STUFF’. Right?

So if you turn that around and ask yourself the flip side of that; if commodities are crashing, then what does that tell you about global demand for such commodities? And if global demand for such stuff is falling, what does that tell you about the global economy itself?

Canada exports a heck of a lot of raw materials, so if the world economy is heading into a new FUNK, then doesn’t that paint a bleak picture for our export market in the future? And what about the jobs that supports our massive housing bubble; if we lose jobs because no one wants our stuff, then who’s still working and earning enough income to pay for all the housing debt we’ve built up, and pay the interest payments on all of Ontario’s MASSIVE public debt burden?

Kind of scary when you look at it from that perspective.

Commodities like Copper are what economists call the “CANARY IN THE COAL MINE”; they show us where the world’s economy is heading, and if you want a picture of that just look at this 5-year chart of copper prices:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COPPER&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p00901260234

If you look at that, you kind of get the feeling that the world is sinking like the Titanic did, don’t you?

So if the demand for our STUFF is crashing, and jobs going with it, who’s going to be working to keep our housing bubble inflated at these sky-high levels?

If the Ontario government cannot collect enough taxes to keep paying the interest on the debt then they will have to bring along austerity measures (i.e. layoffs in huge numbers), and that also will reduce the number of people who can keep this housing bubble inflated.

Either way, this bubble is going to start losing air real quickly, really soon.

Now here’s another bit of painful truth no one wants to hear; more crap about FLUORIDE. When I helped to get Fluoride removed from Waterloo’s drinking water back in 2010 I had no idea how bad for our health it really was. I know that dentists love the stuff and I have fluoride treatments on my teeth because I think it is actually good for my teeth, but as far as the rest of my body I think the rest of my body does not need fluoride given to it.

Look at it from a different perspective: We all know that if you get a cut then you can get benefit by applying a bit of antiseptic to the cut, perhaps apply some iodine liquid or some polysporin or some other ointment. Now just imagine you get a cut so instead you decide to DRINK IODINE , or DRINK Polysporin ? Kind of crazy isn’t it? If you only need to treat one small area, then why apply that product to your entire body, right?
Well when you only need to apply the Fluoride to your teeth why apply it to your entire body? SAME REASONING THERE.

Here’s something else interesting I just read:

“Fluoride: Killing Us Softly”
http://www.globalresearch.ca/fluoride-killing-us-softly/5360397

#15 That guy on 08.06.15 at 5:56 pm

I’m also voting NDP. Complaining over and minuscule tax increase is laughable. Maybe cut the fat at the top? Maybe the CEOs should bring their compensation to historical norms?

The extra cash from the small tax increase will be partially used to build infrastructure that help businesses anyway. Quit the wining – it’s not terribly becoming – it’s Rick Perry level of lame.

#16 TurnerNation on 08.06.15 at 5:57 pm

Shawn and only one of those practices charts actual human behavior. But you’ve always stuck me as more robotic.

Got VIX?

#17 Luis on 08.06.15 at 5:57 pm

Garth, does it trouble you that many will interpret that you seem to be trying to desperately build some kind of argument to support Harper, the most appalling, Nixonian, fascistic PM this country has ever suffered?

Your tears for this poor oil company that apparently cannot manage itself in anything less than a corrupt Alberta PC environment are not really that compelling, either.

You’re a pretty good guy who has done much good with this blog.

But you seem determined to be on the wrong side of history.

Why?

#18 saskatoon on 08.06.15 at 5:58 pm

#274 Nora Lenderby

you do realize that by saying this, you are advocating the initiation of brutal violence and force against the very people you are trying to “help”…right?

you are such a “RESPONSIBLE” person!

i’ve said this before: but this is the most dangerous type of individual:

they will use governmental force to “help” you –whether you want the help or not.

and they will feel good about using state violence to push their own brand of “righteousness” down your throat.

#19 Malcom on 08.06.15 at 6:00 pm

Vancouver SFH’s up 16.2% in the last year.

Preferred shares down about the same in a year.

Maybe you can see the future and say which is the buying opportunity and which is the seling oppportunity?

#20 lala on 08.06.15 at 6:01 pm

No offence blog dogs but Canada and Canadians are the most boring double double in the word. After I chase my tail for 15 years i have decided to go back where I belong and where i can live a life without worrying of loosing things. Good to have to countries, I feel sorry for people who are stuck on here. Life is the moment, life is passion, life is emotion…….Canada is calculation.

#21 wallflower on 08.06.15 at 6:01 pm

None of this really matters if everybody is a civil servant.
(which is the direction in which we are headed)
Ha!

On a scale of Puerto Rico to Greece, we’re probably somewhere left of Puerto Rico; they are better off based on weather.
Ha!

Oh, my, it’s all a shit-fest now.

#22 Nora Lenderby on 08.06.15 at 6:01 pm

#151 saskatoon on 08.06.15 at 12:11 am
…is it morally just to forcibly medicate the most impoverished of people? shouldn’t this be a choice for them? let me guess…you have made up your mind…and are doing it “for their own good”?

Yes. Fluoride, chlorine. Vaccines. Fortified flour, vitamins in milk, and public health in general.

This is what responsible governments (at all levels) should do.

(OttawaMike: your gallant fight against the forces of unreason is noted, but you’re wasting time arguing with someone who is wrong on the Internet :-)

#23 wallflower on 08.06.15 at 6:04 pm

Maybe I should have worded my last post differently.

How about,
On a scale of Puerto Rico to Greece, where do we think Canada stands?

Another chart, please.

#24 The real deal on 08.06.15 at 6:04 pm

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/03/03/hopeless-2/#comment-356884

Boom!

http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/2015/ca_popgraph_2014.bmp

Boom!

Out of fuel and the engines are on fire. Left wing half shot off and the rear rudder flapping like a screen door in a hurricane. Month and a half and this whole thing goes down like a $40 hooker at a Shriner’s convention. There isn’t a population pyramid in the whole OECD which doesn’t invert now and shifts into deflation due to lack of demand/growth. Throw in the tech shift to less employees due to computers and robotics in the global economy in general and that big sucking sound is business as usual getting sucked into the big Black Hole of misallocated capital.

http://www.indexmundi.com/graphs/population-pyramids/european-union-population-pyramid-2014.gif

#25 pinstripe on 08.06.15 at 6:04 pm

There is a big gap between what the O&G corps in alberta say in private and what is said in public.

in this case, the big corp is looking for a scapegoat.

In alberta, Rachel is doing the right thing. Many Albertans made their point that enough is ENOUGH.

The alberta pc party went through the biggest boom in the history of the province. Today alberta is in massive debt. where did the money go?

Rachel will have her hands full dealing with the pc waste. the 20% increase in tax is overdue for the big corps. The waste and corruption is mind boggling.

#26 Matt on 08.06.15 at 6:04 pm

“Sales in July were the lowest level in four months, back to last-winter levels.” That happens every year, because of seasonality.
“The average price of a 416 detached shack has fallen below $1 million for the first time since the deep freeze of January.” The average is very noisy, because the mix of homes changes from one month to the other, so short-term variations say little. Even with this decline, the trend over the past year is consistent with the index.
“That typical home has declined in market value by about $120,000 since May.” The average price does not correspond to a “typical” home. That is the job of the index, which actually increased.
Suggest you leave cherry-picking of numbers to the realtors. Prices have been going up all this year. It will take a few months of data to know when they have finally peaked.

According to the realtors, detached prices peaked in May. As I reported, they have declined for four months. — Garth

#27 Deano on 08.06.15 at 6:09 pm

Consumers with disposable income are the job creators Garth. Corporations add jobs when there is demand from consumers-they don’t add jobs out of some inherent generosity, if only the big bad government doesn’t tax them for the enormous benefits they receive from existing in our society. Having said all of that, yes, there is a balance-but lets not make it sound like corporations drop jobs like candies for us to consume.

#28 Mike S on 08.06.15 at 6:10 pm

“it is ending?”

Shout it be “it is ending!” or “is it ending?”

#29 Mike S on 08.06.15 at 6:12 pm

“There comes a point at which the cost of money no longer matters. Mortgages could go to 1% (as they are in Japan) and the market would shrug”

What about Bank Profitability? Are we going to be surprised come end of August? Later this year?

#30 Shawn on 08.06.15 at 6:12 pm

Consumerism?

#270 Practical_Logical on 08.06.15 at 4:47 pm said:

This Canadian Society is bulit upon consumer consumption to propel the economy forward

**************************************
True enough, but is there another valid reason for the economy to produce anything?

Do you see people stopping consuming things anytime soon?

#31 White Crock BC on 08.06.15 at 6:15 pm

Leo Trollstoy on 08.06.15 at 5:45 pm

Inflation from our wounded dollar is going to be crazy.
———————————————————–
Having an indexed pension, I’ll take the raise.

However, I’ll bet StatsCan will be adjusting their “basket” once again and inflation will somehow remain “stubbornly low”

#32 mark on 08.06.15 at 6:17 pm

Second week of March: Goldman has 2 research notes out about oil going lower.

Third week of March: Oil bottomed out.

Five weeks later: Oil 40% higher.

I wonder if they lost a cent on that movement?

Now Goldman has another research note out about oil going lower.

#33 Austrian Ex-Pat on 08.06.15 at 6:19 pm

The obsession with the cost of shelter is quite fascinating. No one talks about this stuff over here. I work as a liftie during the winter and mountain guide in the summer … I drink great beer, eat great food and am well taken care of by an affluent, older woman. Sure I can’t afford a home but I don’t work in a glass box above a six-lane highway. And when I’m no longer young and vibrant, and I’m traded in … well I’ve read Chapter 8 and 20.. or I can always return to Sutton.

Auf wiedersehen!

#34 Shawn on 08.06.15 at 6:24 pm

Gold Trading is down?

So 40% fewer people are hot potatoing gold from one to another? So sad. That leaves 59% of a fairly pointless activity to go. We should retain about 1% for price discovery purposes.

I wrote to Barrick Gold in October and suggested that they liquidate the company and return any left over money to the owners before it is all destroyed. They are apparently in the business of taking in money from shareholders and literally pouring it down a hole to bring up metal that is worth less than the costs poured down the hole. Wasting the resources of the world.

GDP is a value-added concept. I wonder if GDP goes up when unprofitable mining companies shut down.

#35 Shawn on 08.06.15 at 6:27 pm

Oil

True, if storage tanks get full, the price could really plummet.

The play then would be to find new storage and fill it with very cheap oil. Might find a used oil tanker on eBay. Or maybe an old gold mine would make a useful storage bin?

#36 BobC on 08.06.15 at 6:28 pm

Yes!! Increase taxes on all evil corporations until they’re forced to double their prices!

#37 Victor V on 08.06.15 at 6:32 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/canadian-natural-swings-to-loss-on-oil-price-rout/article25857125

Canadian Natural said an Edmonton-based research firm had calculated that the tax hit – which brought the rate back to the level during the tenure of late Conservative premier Ralph Klein in the 1990s and 2000s – could mean 4,100 fewer person-years of direct and indirect jobs. It did not specify the time frame.

#38 MSM-Free Zone on 08.06.15 at 6:32 pm

You’re being a little harsh on Rachel, don’t you think?

She’s only been in power a couple of months and already everyone (rabid right-wingers especially) are blaming her the current crisis Alberta is in, a mess she inherited from 4 decades of an inappropriately labelled (c)onservative dynasty, Peter Lougheed’s being an early exception.

No different than when the Democrats to the south inherited a similar mess when the U.S. blew its financial brains out under the Bush Repulicans de-regulated ‘less government oversight’ watch in 2008.

Now that Alberta’s been exposed swimming naked with the oil tide royalties having gone out, the reduction in provincial revenues has to be made up somewhere. Like you said, “…Yesterday the price of oil slipped into the $44-a-pop range, the lowest in four months because everybody now expects the bears to stay out…”

Having held the title of ‘highest per-capita provincial spending’ for so many years (I witnessed the same provincial secondary road being paved three times in five years), the so-called ‘Alberta Advantage’ was a joke to insiders everywhere, anyway.

With oil royalties permanently gone, Albertans had now better get used to be taxed at the near the same rate as the rest of Canadians.

#39 DJG on 08.06.15 at 6:34 pm

Sales reported by TREB in July, 2014 were 9,198; in July, 2015 they were 9,880. Average 416 SFD price was $880k in July of 2014 and $996 in July of this year. Sales volume and prices are ALWAYS lower in July than they were four months earlier. This is just like the many other times when you’ve said that sales collapsed, when in reality they have just been exactly in line with seasonal norms.

The Toronto market is stupid, irrational, crazy, but the data you’re citing says the opposite of what you’re implying.

#40 earlybird on 08.06.15 at 6:37 pm

Adding an extra 2% to the corporate tax rate won’t matter much if we run out of storage for oil, then we will see a bottom in price. That should do Canada in….what’s oil worth when there is nowhere to put it? crazy…

#41 greyswan on 08.06.15 at 6:50 pm

It is amazing how big business likes to get political when a government is not playing their game as they had for so many years….did company save some cash over those many favorable pro-business low tax years??
Why does a country like Norway have assets saved for a rainy day and not Alberta?
How about the private sector oil companies, have any cash on hand for a downturn?
These mostly large American Multi-national`s will take every opportunity to discredit left of center Norway type governments by using economic games to put pressure such as expanded over to top lay-offs like they did with Trudeau government many years ago!!
How is Norway coping with low oil prices….Garth??

With a 25% GST. — Garth

#42 Servus on 08.06.15 at 6:54 pm

#32
I hear you.
Everytime I return to Canada from a visit to Austria, it gets harder not to regret having immigrated to Canada.

#43 Harper created NDP boom on 08.06.15 at 6:55 pm

All ideologically driven politicians create and make their own, ideologically opposite counterpart. But they are too stupid to learn or even to remember history.

If you don’t want NDP, don’t create the conditions for it.

#44 Michael on 08.06.15 at 6:56 pm

You can feel the stress in the air here in Calgary. A lot of folks here are at or close to critical mass in terms of household + mortgage debt. Not knowing if you will be employed for the next pay period can’t be good… My wife works at Cenovus and the vibe is pretty bleak. Thankful that we are happily renting and debt free for nearly a decade.

#45 JO on 08.06.15 at 6:57 pm

#6 /14- go ahead and vote for the No Dough Partiers and lets talk in one year. You zombies want something for nothing from the shrinking productive minority you punks.

I have seen first hand what socialism does to my ancestral Europe: BIG government = big taxes and big corruption -oh wait you must work for the public sector.

If you do get a majority and I hope u do, let’s touch base in early 2020 and see how those stupid pensions and minimum wage jobs are going

In a nation of illiterates, predators can do very well. An NDP majority would be the END of tbd NDP due decades to come. It will also speed up the economic collapse we were due for anyway

And no I do not care for Harper or Trudeau

Go ahead and vote for these pinkos

Ask the French and Venezuelans how their socialism is working out. And while u are at it, ask the Swedes, Ontarians, Spanish, Greeks, Portuguese, Illinoisans, on and on

Government and central banks they work with are the PROBLEM not the solution PINKO

The bond market will fix all of you over the next 5-10 years

JO

#46 IHCTD9 on 08.06.15 at 6:59 pm

#6 Boombust on 08.06.15 at 5:44 pm
I’ll be voting NDP all the way. I’m not “scared” one tiny bit.

The same is true for many of my friends and family.
——————————————————————-

Hey that’s great! Glad to hear you all work for the government, have paid off your mortgages, have no consumer debt, and are already well positioned for your retirement!

#47 Herm on 08.06.15 at 7:06 pm

Raising the corporate tax rate by two percentage points and you’d think the world is coming to an end, at least in Garth’s little world. About time they started paying a little closer to their fair share, money that’s used to finance a just and fair society we all benefit from, not just the privileged few.

As we get deeper into this election cycle I’m sure we’ll see more posts like this… fear mongering about those scary “Socialists” and the havoc they’ll inflict on the economy. I’d remind people that without the NDP advocating for it we likely wouldn’t have universal health care. And who knows, you could slip on the ice this winter, break a leg and be requiring full use of our socialist medical system.

Don’t ignore the point. This is clearly not the time to be increasing the overhead on energy companies. — Garth

#48 Big Dipper on 08.06.15 at 7:09 pm

Garth, what a crock! CRNL would have been profitable – if not for the NDP? A slight adjustment to the Alta corp tax rate (also known as regional corporate welfare – or the so called “Alberta Advantage”) causes massive loss for CNRL? This is CON propaganda at its worst.
This tells me that the CONS predict an NDP govt this October – and will stop at nothing by providing misinformation in order to stop sanity returning to our federal government

The data came from the company. — Garth

#49 Darryl on 08.06.15 at 7:11 pm

Lets all buy F 150s and Hummers and save the economy.

#50 Gina Stanson on 08.06.15 at 7:12 pm

You got like the clueless NDP backers that it is always the fault of others.

Your policies in NDP Alberta are going to raise taxes, raise gas and energy prices, kill competition which will raise prices even more and concentrate more power on fewer companies forcing more bankruptcies personal and business.

Your NDP policies precisely perpetuate more economic pain, kill business investment, raise prices and inflation, increase taxes making more people in debt.

Ontario and BC liberals are not that great either!

#51 Gina Stanson on 08.06.15 at 7:14 pm

Don’t forget massive job losses and people moving out even more out of the province that will reduce the tax base and put more taxes on those that don’t move away.

In 4 years, it will be a sad state of NDP affairs!

#52 Labour, lies and subsidies on 08.06.15 at 7:14 pm

Companies create condos, cars, widgets and almost everything you can imagine.

But they don’t create jobs.

They buy labour as much as they need, whenever they need it. Not more, not less. Just like anything else that is required for the company to exist and possibly prosper.

Companies love to claim that they “create jobs” in order to turn their need for labour into political capital and preferably to even more direct financial gains, like tax credits or subsidies, paid from taxes.

I have started companies and created jobs. And you? — Garth

#53 Homeowners win...as usual on 08.06.15 at 7:19 pm

#2 Victoria Real Estate Update on 08.06.15 at 5:39 pm
. . . . . . . . Single Family Home Prices. . . . . . .
. . . . . .Percent Increase (year-over-year). . .
. . . . . . . . (x = Toronto, * = Victoria). .

**************

Where do you say you were from Victoria price update nutbar..??????????????

#54 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.06.15 at 7:21 pm

Don’t ignore the point. This is clearly not the time to be increasing the overhead on energy companies. — Garth

Companies have E-Z ways to “reduce their overhead” Garth-o. Simply cut the salaries of all of the useless non productive CEO’s and VP’s.

Overall productivity of the company will not suffer one whit.

What a load of idiot comments tonight, on both sides. — Garth

#55 Kozman on 08.06.15 at 7:25 pm

I cringe at some of the anti-corp and anti-business comments on this blog.
I don’t know if its due that they are the mass of uninformed voter,
or if its due to a absolute lack of economics.

Big oil: Love them or Hate them, I don’t care.

But when a company announces that it would have been profitable before Corp Tax changes, and now its a quarterly loss. That spells big problems for ANY oil and gas company in Ab.
These companies do not startup with make belief finances.

Billionaires in US or China (or Canada), investment trusts, (think W.buffet) etc have ‘X’ millions of dollars to invest this year.

They can choose ANYTHING from bank deposits, ice cream shops, to autoparts manufacturing to Oil and gas, etc.

with the CNRL announcement, and last weeks Suncor, Cenovus and Shell announcements…what do you think their appetite is going to be to invest in Canadian Oil???

if I currently had a Billion, I certainly wouldn’t invest in a startup company or buy 5% of Suncor, etc.

I would pick another industry or country to invest in.

thus ultimately less future jobs and demand for the industry.

Shifting profits from Private business to the Gov’t is a BAD idea. that is the point of Garth’s posting today.
I absolutely agree.

#56 Nagraj on 08.06.15 at 7:26 pm

#31 AUSTRIAN EX-PAT

First of all, congrats to the affluent older woman.
Secondly, your sort will always be young and vibrant.
Thirdly, I doubt you’ll be traded in.

I grew up in the Traisviertel (wine) of Oberoesterreich, informed early on by aficionados of Kaiser Franz Josef II and Empress Elisabeth – and consequently understand that what matters about a man is that he be 1) good-looking 2) charming 3) sings well 4) cuts a fine figure when waltzing. Period.

Then when I got into the English-speaking world (NA) I was supposed to believe that you have to “keep your nose to the grindstone” and go to churches neurotically devoid of statues of naked saints.

* * * * * * * * * *

Get a DVD of Deanna Durbin’s 1940 “Spring Parade” and watch it with your affluent lady. The things that matter most are the everyday moments of kind affection.

You don’t need a house. But if you really want one, in your case, chances are good one will – happen along.

#57 Daisy Mae on 08.06.15 at 7:28 pm

#6: “I’ll be voting NDP all the way. I’m not “scared” one tiny bit. The same is true for many of my friends and family.”

*************

The pendulum swings…what a disaster awaits.

#58 Mark on 08.06.15 at 7:29 pm

“I wrote to Barrick Gold in October and suggested that they liquidate the company and return any left over money to the owners before it is all destroyed.”

I’m sure your nonsensical letter would have been summarily round-filed. Barrick doesn’t have a problem with cash flow or earnings — they have a problem with one-time charges and that Pascua Lama mine.

While Pascua Lama is a non-producing asset for Barrick at this point, sooner or later it will come into production. The spectacle of Pascua Lama is a harbinger for higher gold prices in the future on account of the extreme difficulties involved in bringing new supply to market. The balance sheets of the worldwide precious metals industry and its investors are so wounded at this point that it will take years of price gains for any meaningful new supply to come on-stream to replace depleted mines. Effectively guaranteeing a future bull market not only in the precious metals, but the miners themselves.

There are few other sectors of the economy that have been in a 30-35-year long bear market, yet produce a product that is desirable and has been in demand for thousands of years.

#59 Daisy Mae on 08.06.15 at 7:30 pm

#11: “When I look around, I start to think we deserve what’s coming.”

****************

Maybe we do. As always, we’ll learn the hard way. Damn!

#60 Rexx Rock on 08.06.15 at 7:31 pm

Thank God that Toronto and Vancouver have booming economies our Canada would be in a depression.Goverments will raise taxes when ever they feel like it so its not a big issue.The big money is in these 2 cities that’s why everybody is moving there.Also Victoria is doing well,sold signs on all the houses up for sale.It only takes a week to sell a house in Victoria.In the good times only a few hours with multiple bids.

#61 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.06.15 at 7:31 pm

I have started companies and created jobs. And you? — Garth

Garth, I know it is incredibly challenging for you to accept publishing posts that challenge your worldview, and I applaud you for it. That said, I have to put forward a question:

When you started said companies, did you try to create demand or did you recognize that an existing demand was not being satisfied?

I am a conservative. You would not post most of my views in this blog because they are not politically correct. However, even the dumbest among us would (should) recognize that trickle down supply side economics doesn’t work.

The proof, as they say, is in the pudding.

If you’d ever chased an idea, started a corporation, risked capital and employed people in the process you would not ask such a naive question. Most start-ups fail. They all create jobs. — Garth

#62 Vundo on 08.06.15 at 7:33 pm

I have a feature request for our gracious host. Would it be possible to install some kind of “like” or “up/downvote” type system in here so that we can give credit and/or scorn to posts without having to call them out by number later on in a separate post? I find I seldom have much to add but would like to be able to give kudos where they are due.

With respect to CNRL, they are full of it IMHO. Yeah, like the price of oil wasn’t a problem, it was the government normalising the tax rate on profits. They are welcome to move over and let Suncor et. al. handle the industry they seem to have such trouble in when there is a rough patch. The price of oil will come back; nothing makes me more confident in that fact than hearing hyperbolic forecasts that it will never do so. Alberta will change governments again, and it will not take 44 years this time. It’s just reality. Deal with it.

#63 Darryl on 08.06.15 at 7:34 pm

#51 Labour, lies and subsidies on 08.06.15 at 7:14 pm
Companies create condos, cars, widgets and almost everything you can imagine.

But they don’t create jobs.

They buy labour as much as they need, whenever they need it. Not more, not less. Just like anything else that is required for the company to exist and possibly prosper.

Companies love to claim that they “create jobs” in order to turn their need for labour into political capital and preferably to even more direct financial gains, like tax credits or subsidies, paid from taxes.
————————————————————–
They don’t create jobs ??

Oh I get it .
It would be better if these jobs that they don’t create go elsewhere right?

Just WOW.

#64 Leo Trollstoy on 08.06.15 at 7:36 pm

What a load of idiot comments tonight, on both sides. — Garth

Yes. These posts are aids.

#65 Leo Trollstoy on 08.06.15 at 7:39 pm

If you don’t want NDP, don’t create the conditions for it.

Alberta will be a proxy for Canada.

The NDP will preside over the implosion of the Canadian economy.

Diabolical.

Get the popcorn.

#66 ConSonAbuGraib on 08.06.15 at 7:42 pm

#3 Love my Kia on 08.06.15 at 5:41 pm

If an oil company can’t turn any profit with a 2% increase in tax, then they shouldn’t be in business anyway.

Exactly!

Especially a monstrosity the size of CNRL. Which happens to be a foreign-student job placement machine with a pipeline straight from the airport with a brief stop at Cdn schools then on to Calgary offices. That’s the last company which should be bitching about paying a bit more in Canadian tax.

#67 devore on 08.06.15 at 7:42 pm

But at the end of the day, Albertans clearly considered that issue very thoroughly in the last election and determined that when it comes time for all of us to pull up our socks and tighten our belts because of the fiscal challenges we find ourselves with, that everybody needs to chip in.

Corporations “tighten the belt” and “chip in” by cutting positions and investment back into the company. The formerly gainfully employed will surely thank their lucky stars the government now has more money to spend on whatever governments spend money on.

Typical socialist thinking, that money just magically appears out of thin air, and we merely need to push a few levers and wish hard enough for more to spring up. Well, it’s somebody else’s money, so it doesn’t really matter, right?

#68 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.06.15 at 7:42 pm

I want the Red Tories back.

I want the government to stay the H-e-doublehockeysticks out of my life, I think “terrorism” threats are overblown. I want nothing to do with omnibus bills that reinforce a nanny state.

But yet I want to take care of the less fortunate. Not all of them are ne’er-do-well scammers.

I am Canadian. I am moderate.

Where is my party?

#69 Mr. Monday Night on 08.06.15 at 7:43 pm

Speaking of voting, I’ve heard more than my fair share of people say that they don’t plan on voting in October – this is coming just days after the election has been called. I really hope that this doesn’t happen; people really need to figure out which issues mean the most to them and base their choices on which candidate best fits what they’re looking for. Status quo doesn’t appear to be working for us right now, and this is no time for voter apathy.

#70 Gina Stanson on 08.06.15 at 7:47 pm

Why dance around the issue. If corporations and business plus personal savings and investment plans are so bad for the economy, NDP and other socialistic policymakers just take over the economy and country 100%.

What are you going to do with a $15 an hour minimum wage, go for $25, $35, $50 an hour, why have a 13% or 14% H.S.T., go for a 25%, 30%, 35% H.S.T., get rid of RRSP’s, RESP’s, TFSA’s, RRIF’s, LIRA’s, LIF’s, LRIF’s etc.

Take over everything. If the NDP and others like you are so sure you can make a just, equal, richer society, then go full thrust.

You guys know it is not going to work and you do it in small amounts but is still does not work. You know it is B.S. and you have to use mostly, young, inexperienced people, full of hope but do not know better to promise something that will not only come but will make their lives more difficult for years to come.

I say, all the taxes and destructive policies that are put in place should have the politician’s name on it so we can all remember who did the damage.

#71 ConSonAbuGraib on 08.06.15 at 7:48 pm

#13 Waterloo Resident on 08.06.15 at 5:56 pm

Don’t care about your fluoride problem.

And as far as soft resource demand is concerned, yes that’s pretty much the case. Of course, (Western) Canada should have done what Saudi Arabia and UAE did recently – build massive manufacturing plants for hydrocarbon product, instead of just dumping raw exports out the door.

#72 Daisy Mae on 08.06.15 at 7:48 pm

News Alert
Follow CBC’s live coverage of the federal leaders’ debate

********************

Harper is egging on the other parties. They’ll run out of funds far before the election…and, of course, this is what he’s counting on.

#73 salmon rear end arm on 08.06.15 at 7:48 pm

cnrl is the most right wing pro non union company
out there.
who fixed there plant when they blew it up. that’s right.
and insurance payed for it.

#74 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.06.15 at 7:53 pm

#53 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.06.15 at 7:21 pm
Don’t ignore the point. This is clearly not the time to be increasing the overhead on energy companies. — Garth

Companies have E-Z ways to “reduce their overhead” Garth-o. Simply cut the salaries of all of the useless non productive CEO’s and VP’s.

Overall productivity of the company will not suffer one whit.

What a load of idiot comments tonight, on both sides. — Garth
——————
Gotta side with the poster on this one.
What kind of special knowledge/skills are required by a CEO or VP of an oil company.
You look for oil, then you drill and pump it and then sell it.
No need to hire an Einstein for that.

#75 devore on 08.06.15 at 7:53 pm

#3 Love my Kia

If an oil company can’t turn any profit with a 2% increase in tax, then they shouldn’t be in business anyway.

What does that even mean? Do you know how a business works?

They had a crappy year. Oil prices plunged. Planned pipelines south and west are bust for a decade. They barely squeak out a profit, which is now erased by the increased tax.

An established, competitive business in a bustling economy can absorb small unexpected costs. One that’s already battered and beated, riding the edge of the black line, not so much. A deferred tax liability is a sword hanging over that company for the next fiscal year.

Before you get too smug, consider that companies like this being successful and profitable is where your pension is going to come from. This will hurt, unless you work for the government, in which case they will just go back to the bottomless bag of money that is tax revenue to top it off, right?

#76 Berniebee on 08.06.15 at 7:55 pm

Just so we are all on the same page:

Alberta’s general corporate tax rate was raised from 10% to 12 % on July 1st. The SMALL business rate was left unchanged at 3%.

I may not be in love with all their policies but it looks to me like Alberta’s NDP understands where most jobs are created.

#77 Musty Basement Dweller on 08.06.15 at 7:59 pm

Thanks for being early tonight so that we can watch the debate Garth.

#78 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.06.15 at 7:59 pm

#61 Devore
Typical socialist thinking, that money just magically appears out of thin air, and we merely need to push a few levers and wish hard enough for more to spring up. Well, it’s somebody else’s money, so it doesn’t really matter, right?
—————
Agree 100%.
that’s what the closet Socialist Harper is doing.
Suddenly finds money out of thin air to bribe voters with tax credits.

#79 Herb on 08.06.15 at 8:01 pm

Perhaps you’re lucky that Premier Notley does not read your blog, Garth. She does handle Harper nicely.

http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/Canada/Edmonton/ID/2673186075/

#80 devore on 08.06.15 at 8:02 pm

#57 Mark

The balance sheets of the worldwide precious metals industry and its investors are so wounded at this point that it will take years of price gains for any meaningful new supply to come on-stream to replace depleted mines. Effectively guaranteeing a future bull market not only in the precious metals, but the miners themselves.

Cost of production does not dictate prices, demand does. And the demand right now is such that speculators, who hold the vast majority of gold and gold futures contracts, are willing to part with it at below cost of production. This can continue until industrial demand (ie real demand) threatens to exhaust above-ground supply. Seeing as gold nearly infinitely recyclable, this can be quite a long wait. Unless something else sparks speculative demand again.

Gold is a funny commodity, but it is not exempt from laws of economics.

#81 Canadian on 08.06.15 at 8:03 pm

Be interesting to see if that was related to Capital Expenditure in the way FIT would be adjusted on the statement in the pre-IFRS days? Any insight Garth?

#82 nnso on 08.06.15 at 8:04 pm

many people created jobs for their spouses, concubines and children. CRA well aware of it.

#83 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.06.15 at 8:08 pm

#73 Pompous Doofus-

Of course, as all “energy companies” all are small start up operations.

Doofus.

#84 Bob Santarossa on 08.06.15 at 8:09 pm

Bang on Garth…now it is all about jobs and tommorow hopefully it will not be bad but if what you say about 416 real estate is true then Canadians have already started to pull the reigns in months ago on spending and that can only mean job losses to come since all sector indicators of consequence are negative.

Poor Harper, after tommorow, there will be 2 more Jobs reports with one, days before voting day and 2 GDP reports in September – it could well be the dumbest election date call ever.

#85 IHCTD9 on 08.06.15 at 8:09 pm

#41 Herm on 08.06.15 at 7:06 pm
Raising the corporate tax rate by two percentage points and you’d think the world is coming to an end, at least in Garth’s little world. About time they started paying a little closer to their fair share, money that’s used to finance a just and fair society we all benefit from, not just the privileged few.

——————————————————————-

So let me get this straight…

The Tarsands projects in Alberta which represent 100’s of Billions worth of Global investment, which have one of the highest input costs in the world, and who’s subsequent products fetch one of the lowest prices WRT their global competition, an industry who’s sale prices have dropped over 50% in the last 12 months, and who’s margins are shrinking by the week, should be able to inhale a 20% increase in taxes while all of this is going on?

Alberta lives and dies with Oil industry, oh but they weren’t paying enough of their “fair share”, another 20% should do it.

You are the type of boneheaded goof I would rather see packing up and leaving, preferably before the multinational Oil corporations keeping Alberta on life support decide to…

#86 Llewelyn on 08.06.15 at 8:09 pm

Yesterday Garth suggested that Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNRL) had a valid point about the NDP decision to raise the Provincial corporate tax rate from 10% of net income to 12% of net income. This suggestion was a bit tough to swallow in light of their financial statements.

In the fiscal year that ended December 31, 2014, CNRL realized gross revenues of $18.863 billion. After deducting total operating expenses of $13. 7 billion CNRL declared pre tax income of $5.163 billion, or 27.3% of gross revenues.

Total Federal and Provincial income tax obligations on net income of $5.1631 billion in 2014 were recorded by CNRL at $1.234 billion, or 23.9% of net income.

I realize you would rather corporations pay 100% of their profits to shareholders but a tax of total tax burden of 23.9% on net income of $5.163 billion is hardly an onerous cost to access natural resources controlled for the benefit of Canadian citizens.

If the Provincial corporate tax rate had been 12% instead of 10% for all of 2014 the total additional cost to CNRL, without voodoo accounting, would have been less than $105 million.

In the three months ended March 31, 2015, the last quarter public information was available, gross revenues of CNRL had declined sharply to $3.034 billion. This decline was hardly the fault of the NDP government.

After deducting total operating expenses of $3.673 billion CNRL declared a pre tax loss of $639.0 million, and as a result had no tax obligations for the three month period.

It is difficult to imagine how a company that declared a loss of $639 million in the first quarter of 2015 could claim that they would have been profitable in the second quarter of 2015 if only the Provincial tax rate had not been increased by 2.0%.

Clearly CNRL are engaged in a creative form of fear mongering that must be challenged. Using the phrase “deferred income tax liability” to calculate a possible tax liability in the future just a touch disingenuous even in this era of creative accounting.

Does corporate Canada have no role in supporting Canadian citizens in general?

Guess not!!!

#87 Retired Boomer - WI on 08.06.15 at 8:10 pm

Well let us sell houses to the stupid! I fill that old Caddy at $2.45 a gallon and laugh like hell!! Those health care stocks racking up over 15% this year make me smile ! Of course, i lost my as in the oil patch, but eventually that will come back to life X?OM &Y CVX aren’t the indebted juniors are they?

I can’t protect the stupid. They are on their own.

Freedom First, good on you for saying adios to the indebted broad. You don’t need her around. Find one just as cute who has a clue, and accepts the no strings arrangement. They are out there for your benefit!

We all gotta libe our lives as we see fit. You won’t get recycled, and you won’t get outta this one alive.

Eat, drink, fire up a fat boy, and enjoy your lot, whether it is clear sky, or raining bullshit -you deserve it!

I can’t fix your bad choices, i have my own demons to deal with reigning in. That’s my story and i’m sticking to it!

So far Garth, i am not learning much on these installments.
NDP spends too much, taxes too much, clueless operatives for naught.

Conservatives just as clueless, but tax less?

Markets suck, and are getting jittery – time to reduce holdings for awhile!
3rd year presidency’s almost always underperform.

So, where does the little guy fit in?

#88 devore on 08.06.15 at 8:12 pm

#72 Ponzius Pilatus

What kind of special knowledge/skills are required by a CEO or VP of an oil company.
You look for oil, then you drill and pump it and then sell it.
No need to hire an Einstein for that.

IKR, it’s so easy! It’s amazing any company ever fails, when an idiot can do the job.

Oh wait, that’s not how it works. You know why serious investors visit the company, its sites, and meet the management team? Because it matters, and for small companies, especially junior resource companies, is probably the single most important factor of success. Experienced executives have the experience, knowledge and connections to make deals happen, get through tough times, find and hire the most skilled and qualified employees, and secure most reliable and cheapest sources of funding, including investor funding.

#89 Berniebee on 08.06.15 at 8:13 pm

One more thing:

Until this past July 1st Alberta’s corporate tax rate was the lowest in Canada, 1% lower than the next lowest.
( BC.)

With Alberta’s corporate tax rate raised to 12%, They have vaulted to er, fourth highest. Tied with FOUR other provinces.

Only Ontario (11.5%) , BC (11%) and Northwest territories (11.5%) are lower.

Nova Scotia and PEI are at 16%.

http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/bsnss/tpcs/crprtns/rts-eng.html

#90 frantic vike on 08.06.15 at 8:15 pm

#34 Shawn

BC has a huge array of newly fracked empty gas wells that we can use for storage. Already pumping waste water into them, oil should be fine down there.

#44 Jo

Glad you reminded me about that terrible commie state of Illinois. True example of worst excesses of socialism…

May not be a great time for energy companies to have their taxes raised. Shutting the barn door after the horse is out, but illogical to put the blame for this on any NDP party. Can only hope this serves as the wake up call Canada needs to get out of last century’s business model. Time for the Quantum Tesla Skidoo

#91 Berniebee on 08.06.15 at 8:17 pm

And one more thing.

Alberta had the lowest corporate tax rates in Canada. With the rate rise from 10% to 12%, Alberta has vaulted to er, 4th highest. Tied with four other provinces.

Nova Scotia and PEI? 16%

Does AB really want to be PEI? — Garth

#92 BobC on 08.06.15 at 8:19 pm

#72
Wow, I’m speechless. I hope your not serious or your a humble ex CEO of a major corp.
Otherwise your – oh never mind

#93 saskatoon on 08.06.15 at 8:23 pm

#45 IHCTD9

what else really can one expect when the single largest employer in a country is the government itself?

dissonance.
rationalization.
sublimation.
displacement.

+ more follows as reality creeps into the fantasy mindset…to distance psyches from the fact that state livelihoods are based on ever-increasing levels of governmental brutality.

great example:

#16 Luis

notice the subtle passive aggressive tone…i.e., the propaganda/rhetoric…linking garth inexorably to harper…just because garth points out some possible shortcomings with the new alberta ndp?

why garth why!!! how could YOU!!? you seem like a nice guy!!!?

this is a common psychological defense mechanism of the hollowed-out mind:

it is performed through a plethora of issues:

“you support free speech? why do you believe in hate speech?”

“you don’t think that cop should go to jail? why are you being racist?”

“you don’t recycle your glass containers? why do you hate the earth?

“you don’t support increased taxes? why do you have no compassion for the poor?

“you don’t like government schools? why do you hate learning?”

…and on and on.

it is a crude, vile anti-logic…used by the distressed mind to maintain the charade that government does not exist due to the initiation of violence–the very origin of the comfortable bureaucratic “salary”.

#94 Gulf Breeze on 08.06.15 at 8:23 pm

Have to agree but reconfirm I will still vote for a federal NDP, understanding they are under WAY more pressure than Notley to not make the typical dunderhead provincial NDP mistakes. How beyond stupid can it be to tax oil corporations more right now?

I don’t get it. It’s like the NDP can’t resist being locked loaded and aimed at their own feet.

#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.06.15 at 8:23 pm

#3 Devore

Before you get too smug, consider that companies like this being successful and profitable is where your pension is going to come from.
—————-
Personally, I believe it’s better to pay the workers better wages now, than dangling to pension carrot.

#96 Ex-Cowtown on 08.06.15 at 8:24 pm

#Love my Kia on 08.06.15 at 5:41 pm

If an oil company can’t turn any profit with a 2% increase in tax, then they shouldn’t be in business anyway.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Obviously you’ve never had the responsibility of making payroll for your employees, or the gut wrenching experience of telling some of them that you can’t afford to keep them.

Your cavalier attitude is shameful, myopic and uninformed. So….. I hear that Mulcair is looking for a few candidates. Sign up now.

#97 JSS on 08.06.15 at 8:25 pm

I like the blog, read it daily, and enjoy the free advice. What I hate is this whole anti-NDP stance that shows up here at least once a week. calling the NDP “dumbass” isn’t going to sway voters to PC or Liberals.

Garth, If you don’t like the NDP then that’s your problem. Stick to financials.

Taxing companies more which are in distress due to forces beyond their control and which are responsible for large, important workforces is dumbass. No matter who pulls the switch. — Garth

#98 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 08.06.15 at 8:27 pm

YOU’RE NUTS..FELLA

“#14 That guy on 08.06.15 at 5:56 pm

I’m also voting NDP. Complaining over and minuscule tax increase is laughable. Maybe cut the fat at the top? Maybe the CEOs should bring their compensation to historical norms?

The extra cash from the small tax increase will be partially used to build infrastructure that help businesses anyway…”

WHY ARE YOU NUTS, FELLA?

Let me give you a good example of what can happen if you vote in an NDP government.

HERE IS WHAT THE NDP DID TO BC WHEN IT WAS IN POWER FROM 1991 AND 2001:

Their governance was pretty much a disaster: from the fast ferries, controversial land claims deals, civil rights issues, internal party rifts that, in one case, turfed one premier whose successor was later forced to resign because of legal troubles. The list was long and sad. Endless it seemed back then.

Read this book, all of you Albertans. Then ask if that could ALSO happen to you:

“Barbarians in the Garden City. The BC NDP in Power.”
It was written by Mark Milke and published in 2001.

So unpopular was the BC NDP government that the 2001 election saw MLAs reduced to just TWO in the 79 seat BC legislature!

The right wing Liberals (successors to the former Social Credit Party) have been in power, and popular, ever since.

The NDP stalwarts are STILL STEAMED and are transferring their hatred on to Mr. Harper, unfairly, of course.

But what do you expect?

They’re NDPers!

ALBERTA NDP’S CORPORATE TAX RIPOFF PLAN

That tax hike is not a “miniscule”, as you put it, “two per cent”, as NDP caucus members still believe.

THE RATE IS 20 PER CENT HIGHER, MR. THAT GUY! As usual both you and the NDP can’t do basic arithmetic, without screwing it up.

THE CORPORATE TAX HIKE DOWNSIDE FOR ALBERTA

Every oil and gas company, along with various smaller feeder and supporter servicing outfits, if they have not already done so, will be laying off even more workers. Many of you already jobless are showing up in Victoria desperately looking for work.

DON’T COME. THERE’S NOTHING HERE FOR YOU…

MEANWHILE, THE OIL DROUGHT WILL LAST FOR YEARS

This morning, on a TV business channel, one energy watcher opined the short-term oil price (WTI) could rise a little, but after that he said, prices will go down: “There is no bottom,” was his final comment.

And some of you want an NDP federal government? You’ve taken leave of what’s left of your scattered senses.

#99 betamax on 08.06.15 at 8:27 pm

#6 Boombust: “I’ll be voting NDP all the way. I’m not “scared” one tiny bit. The same is true for many of my friends and family.”

When it all goes south, you can console each other.

#100 Dawson on 08.06.15 at 8:29 pm

I thought the taxes paid are on profit … how can they claim they lost money when the profit is taxed?

Read the financial statement. — Garth

#101 betamax on 08.06.15 at 8:30 pm

#13 Waterloo Resident

A friend of mine is a geologist. He says jobs are getting harder to find globally as mining companies are investing less in getting stuff (incl. copper) out of the ground. It doesn’t bode well.

#102 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.06.15 at 8:36 pm

Very interesting how this works.

#103 IHCTD9 on 08.06.15 at 8:37 pm

#51 Labour, lies and subsidies on 08.06.15 at 7:14 pm
Companies create condos, cars, widgets and almost everything you can imagine.

But they don’t create jobs.

They buy labour as much as they need, whenever they need it. Not more, not less. Just like anything else that is required for the company to exist and possibly prosper.

Companies love to claim that they “create jobs” in order to turn their need for labour into political capital and preferably to even more direct financial gains, like tax credits or subsidies, paid from taxes.
——————————————————————-

Good Grief!

What a show tonight LOL!!

#104 Labour, lies and subsidies on 08.06.15 at 8:37 pm

#51 Labour, lies and subsidies on 08.06.15 at 7:14 pm

Companies create condos, cars, widgets and almost everything you can imagine.

But they don’t create jobs.

They buy labour as much as they need, whenever they need it. Not more, not less. Just like anything else that is required for the company to exist and possibly prosper.

Companies love to claim that they “create jobs” in order to turn their need for labour into political capital and preferably to even more direct financial gains, like tax credits or subsidies, paid from taxes.

I have started companies and created jobs. And you? — Garth

======

Customers, like myself have purchased the products or services that your company created. Because that’s the only thing that your companies – and any other company – could possibly create.

Our support to purchase your products and services – because we find it valuable enough to pay for it – is the only thing that enables your company to continue buying labour, pay for all your other cost as needed, in order to create your products, services and pay for your salary and hopefully profit.

Without us, consumers, purchasing the products or services that your company creates, your company would be oil circling in tankers.

Every entrepreneur creates jobs and hopes for demand to sustain them, then to create more. Try it some time. — Garth

#105 saskatoon on 08.06.15 at 8:39 pm

#54 Kozman

but the government knows better what to do with this money…right? think of the efficiency!

#72 Ponzius Pilatus

yeup…i’m going to swing by the BK drive thru now and pick up the first fry guy i see…take him over to BMO executive head office for a debrief.

he’ll be running the entire show by tomorrow afternoon!

#106 Washed Up Lawyer on 08.06.15 at 8:45 pm

I’m hoping a commenter or two can help me with this CRNL thingy. How can an increase in tax on profits create a loss? No profits – no taxes paid.

CNRL took a $579-million non-cash charge in the second quarter to account for future tax liability. The money has not been sent to the Alberta treasury. A few more stellar quarters like this one and there will be no future tax liability. The increase from 10% to 12% will be of no moment.

What am I missing?

They should have doubled the non-cash charge and it would have made a better pro-Harper advertisement.

#107 Nosty, etc. on 08.06.15 at 8:46 pm

#224 BT on 08.06.15 at 12:23 am — “Is the Canadian economy being made to fail so we can fall under one North American government, following in the footsteps of the European Union?”

It appears you are correct. ‘Tho the TPP is supposedly dead, don’t be surprised if Harper (along with Obama) pulls another fast one (such as Income Trusts), and resurrects it again. Ultimately, it will leave Canada and Mexico as dirt-poor cousins to the rich US.

#257 saskatoon on 08.06.15 at 4:12 pm — “remember: corporations have “special” legal rights “given” to them by government–in fact, corporations (technically) could not exist without government.”

Bang on. Corporate fascism is thriving, as countries are going broke. Corporations are bigger than govts., and write the laws they want.

#108 Andrew Woburn on 08.06.15 at 8:52 pm

72 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.06.15 at 7:53 pm

What kind of special knowledge/skills are required by a CEO or VP of an oil company.
You look for oil, then you drill and pump it and then sell it.
No need to hire an Einstein for that.
=========================

Congratulations on your recent graduation from barista school. Obviously it has done wonders for your confidence you’re ready to tackle anything. Perhaps now you could begin writing “Oil Fracking for Dummies”.

#109 rainclouds on 08.06.15 at 8:53 pm

Here in good old USA we be chillin on legal weed and cheap 2.70 gal fuel and vino. Liver well spanked, enough about me……

Libs are the only ones who can do basic math, debt/ deficit ( the alternative lifestyle Teacher from Ontario doesn’t count:-)

First debate tonight, , the Tubster gonna be throwin PMO artifacts around the center block if the short pants kids strat goes sideways……….maybe a pic of GT in the dart board will soothe his coal black heart:-)

#110 James on 08.06.15 at 8:55 pm

Conservative capitalists have been getting their way for over 30 years and what do we have to show for it? Record household debt and record corporate profits.

Quit whining about the “socialists” ruining things. You rich guys really are out of touch.

#111 Nora Lenderby on 08.06.15 at 9:00 pm

#17 saskatoon on 08.06.15 at 5:58 pm
#274 Nora Lenderby

you do realize that by saying this, you are advocating the initiation of brutal violence and force against the very people you are trying to “help”…right?
you are such a “RESPONSIBLE” person!
i’ve said this before: but this is the most dangerous type of individual:
they will use governmental force to “help” you –whether you want the help or not.

and they will feel good about using state violence to push their own brand of “righteousness” down your throat.

Very good, dear sir. If I say “public health” and you say “brutal violence” and immediately up the rhetorical stakes, I can point out your lack of reason and rudeness.

I know you don’t get it. I know that you think you have secret knowledge that most of us refuse to understand.

Public health is like the CPP. It may not fix everything, it may be inadequate, it may not even be optimal. However because we cannot trust people to save money for their retirement we have to force them to put something into it. For the common good.

#112 Vanecdotal on 08.06.15 at 9:00 pm

#66 Bytor the Snow Dog

+100

“I am Canadian. I am moderate. Where is my party?”

Amen. Or Namaste. Or whatever. Agree. The root of the polarizing occurring in Canukistan politics right now. No Common Sense Party with fresh blood and new views coming up the middle to appeal to all the “orphaned” moderates … yet.

#113 Kev on 08.06.15 at 9:07 pm

Garth, it hurts your credibility when you stump for the Conservatives with your labeling of the NDP as socialists. You are far too politically sophisticated to believe this and you better believe the people reading your blog know that as well.

Canada’s NDP is a member of Socialist International. — Garth

#114 Labour, lies and subsidies on 08.06.15 at 9:07 pm

#86 Labour, lies and subsidies on 08.06.15 at 8:37 pm
#51 Labour, lies and subsidies on 08.06.15 at 7:14 pm

Companies create condos, cars, widgets and almost everything you can imagine.

But they don’t create jobs.

They buy labour as much as they need, whenever they need it. Not more, not less. Just like anything else that is required for the company to exist and possibly prosper.

Companies love to claim that they “create jobs” in order to turn their need for labour into political capital and preferably to even more direct financial gains, like tax credits or subsidies, paid from taxes.

I have started companies and created jobs. And you? — Garth

======

Customers, like myself have purchased the products or services that your company created. Because that’s the only thing that your companies – and any other company – could possibly create.

Our support to purchase your products and services – because we find it valuable enough to pay for it – is the only thing that enables your company to continue buying labour, pay for all your other cost as needed, in order to create your products, services and pay for your salary and hopefully profit.

Without us, consumers, purchasing the products or services that your company creates, your company would be oil circling in tankers.

Every entrepreneur creates jobs and hopes for demand to sustain them, then to create more. Try it some time. — Garth

=====

Companies create products and services. Period.

No company exists with the goal of “creating jobs”.
In fact, all companies common goal is to minimize labor cost in the process of creating products and services.

Buying labour is not different from buying other materials, products or services.

With your logic when your company buys a computer, it “creates computer”.

Total nonsense.

#115 Freedom First on 08.06.15 at 9:10 pm

Yes. Canada is in big economic trouble right now. Just not everybody knows it yet.

Of course, I am well looked after, by me, as I always put my own Freedom First. 2nd most important to me, is to help others. By help, I mean help, not enable. There is a huge difference. Helping is good, enabling is extremely counterproductive.

I believe this should not only apply to individuals, but also to Governments.

#116 rainclouds on 08.06.15 at 9:14 pm

@ #41 servus

Dude, I’m sure Austria is a nice place. go back . or stop whining

#117 Bottoms_Up on 08.06.15 at 9:17 pm

Trudeau debating well tonight. Likely see a bump in support for liberals. Maybe Garth was right about Mulcair.

#118 IHCTD9 on 08.06.15 at 9:18 pm

#47 Big Dipper on 08.06.15 at 7:09 pm
Garth, what a crock! CRNL would have been profitable – if not for the NDP? A slight adjustment to the Alta corp tax rate (also known as regional corporate welfare – or the so called “Alberta Advantage”) causes massive loss for CNRL? This is CON propaganda at its worst.
This tells me that the CONS predict an NDP govt this October – and will stop at nothing by providing misinformation in order to stop sanity returning to our federal government
——————————————————————-

The Global oil industry is getting pounded to smithereens, and you think a 20% tax increase should be absorbed without so much as a burp?

Send me some of your drugs asap.

#119 Chris on 08.06.15 at 9:20 pm

I was going to be a first time home buyer but I have given up. Even with making more than median income, if we buy a house, our living standards would suffer greatly. I watch all the people I know taking the plunge or bragging about how much their house has appreciated in value. It ia a really strange world. Maybe we will need to move to the other side of the border to be able
to have a life and while also having a house.

#120 J2drod on 08.06.15 at 9:29 pm

In Alberta, we’ve had years of too low tax. It should never have been lowered from 12% to 10%. Our infrastructure has been falling apart and now Notley gets to pick up the pieces – but at least there are people available to do the work now.

As for this tax loss, it’s being called a “Deferred Income Tax Charge” by CNRL. Basically – and if someone else can clarify better, by all means do – they get to take a loss now, and count the amount as an asset on the balance sheet in the future.

I don’t really understand it, but CNRL did not have profits of $579m*50 (@ actual 2% change in tax * the value of the change). They would have had to profit $28950 million dollars for the change to make that big a change in one quarter. So there’s some very special accounting going into this one.

#121 Bytor, etc. on 08.06.15 at 9:30 pm

Nice non answer Garth.

#122 Bytor, etc. on 08.06.15 at 9:31 pm

I hereby change my name to Capt. ObLIVious.

#123 Spectacle on 08.06.15 at 9:32 pm

#10 Yosè on 08.06.15 at 5:51 pm
“If an oil company can’t turn any profit with a 2% increase in tax, then they shouldn’t be in business anyway.”
————
What an idiot.
————-
You know, I was going to say something.

Some companies that I know of personally, WCB makes as much or more than the company after all is said and robbed away . A leaky condo company makes 4% on a very good project!

#124 stage1dave on 08.06.15 at 9:36 pm

Well, if nothing else it’s great to see another Rush fan on here…haha

(I’m actually wearing a Rush tour shirt shirt as I write this)

Anyway, what caught my eye about the initial topic about taxes on CNRL was that dirty word “deferred”…no one else see this? So, it might get paid? When? If next years P & L sheets look like a battlefield, do these “deferred” tax obligations (presumably still hangin’ around) get chewed up because of another crappy year?

I remember Hal Jackman having some interesting things to say about deferred taxes, years ago. Regardless, 2% or 20% of something “deferred” is probably just a good discussion point for a bunch of CMA’s on an expense acct.

(btw, which is it? 2% or 20%? And what the hell were they paying before? Percentages are meaningless without hard numbers! Then we’ll have something to agree…or disagree…about)

Sometimes all this talk about investing, or dis-investing; millions or billions reminds me of that old adage about farming…if you’ve got enuff money to get into it, you might as well just retire & become an international playboy.

Being a contrarian investor, (because I’m a big believer in making stuff & selling it, or buying hard assets I can afford that usually appreciate wildly over the years, or decades) I’ve always been taken aback by most people’s attitudes toward taxes. I pay the capital gains’ gladly upon sale & move on, just as I try to do with my year-end stuff.

If CRA is makin’ more money, then I’m makin’ more money; & I’m cool with that. Besides, I may have paid for the odd streetlight out there.

However, I may investigate this “deferred” thingie a bit more…would really like to “defer” that last CRA re-assessment for another calender year, not to mention last years GST…& then there’s these evil CPP/UIC deductions they want me to pay…

#125 MSM-Free Zone on 08.06.15 at 9:44 pm

#85 Llewelyn on 08.06.15 at 8:09 pm
_________________________

Thanks for providing some useful facts instead of vitriol.

#126 gut check on 08.06.15 at 9:51 pm

@ #19 lala on 08.06.15 at 6:01 pm
No offence blog dogs but Canada and Canadians are the most boring double double in the word. After I chase my tail for 15 years i have decided to go back where I belong and where i can live a life without worrying of loosing things. Good to have to countries, I feel sorry for people who are stuck on here. Life is the moment, life is passion, life is emotion…….Canada is calculation.”

You had me at ‘boring.’
take me with you!

I’m happy for you that you have the option to leave without too much trouble. I’m still investigating how I can get out of here. Good luck to you!

#127 Jean Claude Vandammecouver on 08.06.15 at 9:52 pm

So who do we vote for? Which of the parties do you feel Garth gives us the best shot?

#128 dosouth on 08.06.15 at 9:53 pm

Nice to see corporate losses. These corporations will see other ways of continuing to shore up their 1% on the backs of us locals. So 1 % mortgages will go with the present $9 per hour wages, seems alright to the masses but not to the economists who are paid by the 1% to report how terrible all this is…..more white noise.

#129 saskatoon on 08.06.15 at 9:55 pm

#113 Labour, lies and subsidies

dude…wtf?

a company “buying labor” is synonymous with “creating jobs”.

#110 Nora Lenderby
#109 James

commies don’t have an “I”…notice how they use “we” to represent “their” own beliefs.

recent scary examples above:

“we cannot trust people to save money for their retirement we have to force them…”

“capitalists have been getting their way for over 30 years and what do we have to show for it?”

what they really mean to say is:

“I don’t trust people…”
“I will force them”
“What do I have to show for it?”.

but they CAN’T do this; this would break the psychological conditioning, and make them face reality directly: often confronting their own personal failings, jealousy, hatred, mistrust, lack of hope, desire to control, dominate, obfuscate, and use of brutality…

using “I” breaks the proxy effect, where individual (often sociopathic) moral values and responsibility can no longer hide in the darkness.

#130 Joe Schmoe on 08.06.15 at 9:58 pm

So my wife and I both work and employ full time child care.

If one of us loses our job, we will be forced to lay off our nanny.

Two people will be out of work in this case.

How does employing people “not create jobs”. This is the worst thing I have read on this site by far.

#131 Nemesis on 08.06.15 at 9:59 pm

“Canada’s NDP is a member of Socialist International.” — ComradeGarth

No kidding… Still, you know you always enjoyed those choral interludes at the policy conferences…

https://youtu.be/wEI_Cd8azBY

#132 Llewelyn on 08.06.15 at 9:59 pm

Garth

The corporate tax rate is applied to all companies and prior to the reduction in oil prices all companies in Alberta recieved preferential tax treatment compared to other Provinces. It was proudly called the Alberta advantage.

I will tell what is ‘dumb’ and that is continuing to offer the Alberta advantage to all corporations when the ordinary citizens in Alberta are being asked to tighten their belts.

I get that oil and gas companies were big spenders and big employers in the past. However they also added billions of dollars to their balance sheets and distributed dividends to their shareholders. CNRL alone earned net income of $10.8 billion over the last four years.

In the 1st quarter of 2015 when CNRL lost $639 million they continued to offer a dividend of 23 cents per share. No pain there!

I get why you promote low, or no, corporate taxation but waving a crying towel for companies whose total profits might be reduced by less than 3.0% per year is very hard to support in light of the current state of affairs.

If additional debt is not a solution where do corporate cheerleaders expect Provincial governments to get the revenues required to meet operating requirements.

Oh I forgot from all those new jobs major companies are creating these days. If only that myth was actually true in 2015.

#133 Sideshow Rob on 08.06.15 at 10:05 pm

“Congratulations on your recent graduation from barista school. Obviously it has done wonders for your confidence you’re ready to tackle anything. Perhaps now you could begin writing “Oil Fracking for Dummies”.”

Hey now. That’s no way to talk to Alberta’s new energy minister.

#134 getting old on 08.06.15 at 10:09 pm

Taxing companies more which are in distress due to forces beyond their control and which are responsible for large, important workforces is dumbass. No matter who pulls the switch. — Garth

Garth, could not agree more. Let the chips fall where they may, hopefully lessons will be learned by the dumbasses. To bad the regular Joe has to be caught in the crossfire.

#135 Drift King on 08.06.15 at 10:10 pm

Change is coming to Ottawa and it’s needed.

#136 souvereigninternational on 08.06.15 at 10:11 pm

“There comes a point at which the cost of money no longer matters. Mortgages could go to 1% (as they are in Japan) and the market would shrug. Canadians are pickled in debt, facing more inflation from a wounded dollar, stressed out (over 50% couldn’t survive one missed paycheque) and increasingly aware our economy blows. Now it’s all about jobs. Making the payments. Hanging on. And voting.”

– That’s exactly how the script played out in 2009-11 in USA. Nobody cared about 10K tax incentives.

#137 tundra pete on 08.06.15 at 10:11 pm

The fluoride that is put into drinking water is hydrofluorosilicic acid. This is very corrosive. It is introduced at a strength of 48%, to a residual amount of 1.5 to 2.0 ppm. ( parts per million).If you get it on your skin it burns and causes your skin to become very rough and peel for about a week.

It is widely thought to be beneficial to teeth. In my opinion, something that burns your skin in this manner cant be good for ingestion. The other effect I am aware of is that this acid causes the interior wall of arteries to develope substantial scar tissue from ingesting fluoride. This scar tissue is conducive to the formation of cancer cells. The cancer cells can form quickly in this environment.

Why add this to drinking water when there is evidence of damage, substantial tax payer money required to introduce it and endless controversy of its existence.

#138 Chillie on 08.06.15 at 10:13 pm

Garth: Enjoy your blog for quite a few years now. Just wondering after reading all these pro left wing comments, is there any way you could run an updated poll to see who the sheeple are going to vote for. Maybe also remind them about Grecian politics and Ont. and BC Govts. of the not too recent past.

#139 gut check on 08.06.15 at 10:13 pm

It is just … illogical to blame a newly minted government for CNRL’s problems. I mean come ON.

and by illogical I might mean dishonest.
or opportunist.
or partisan.

To be correct – CNRL is blaming the government not for its problems, but for making them worse. — Garth

#140 Nagraj on 08.06.15 at 10:15 pm

correction to #55

good grief, I meant Unteroesterreich not Ober-

#141 Yosè on 08.06.15 at 10:15 pm

Just finished watching the debate.

When he stared into the camera with his gentle nursery rhyme gaze, Muclair resembled Mr. Rogers.

#142 gut check on 08.06.15 at 10:16 pm

@ #129 Joe Schmoe on 08.06.15 at 9:58 pm

terrible, horrible, no good, very bad example.

#143 Leo Trollstoy on 08.06.15 at 10:16 pm

Unless oil recovers, the oil industry in Alberta will be gutted by NDP taxes and lack of revenue.

Stop debating the colour of deck chairs on the Titanic.

It’s over.

#144 Leo Trollstoy on 08.06.15 at 10:18 pm

Pascua Lama will start producing when gold hits $500.

90% of miners won’t see the next bull market.

Dead men walking.

#145 Nagraj on 08.06.15 at 10:28 pm

Hey! The dabate’s over!
We was watchin it on the sofa with Dr. Louise (who made us watch it) sittin in the middle. Tulong had this bucket of Italian seafood salad – he roots thru it to first fish out the baby octopuses and then the calamari and so on and he was makin such a mess Dr. Louise made him sit by himself (with his bucket) on the floor on newspapers. I fell asleep. When Dr. Louise woke me up Tulong was still asleep on the floor too.

Your friend, Bulto

#146 Steerage riff raff on 08.06.15 at 10:30 pm

To the ex-pat Austrian skiing gigolo … I hope you are real……….. that was hilarious.

#147 Henry on 08.06.15 at 10:30 pm

Lala @19

“i have decided to go back where I belong…”

Dear Lala,

Don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out!

#148 BlackDog on 08.06.15 at 10:30 pm

You won’t hear about this in the Canadian media, but some of you heavy into US investments should pay attention. The summary trial for the lawsuit launched against the Canadian government for agreeing to USA’s FATCA, was held August 4-5th (crown’s request for a delay was denied by justice Martineau). From what I heard, things went REALLY well for our side (meaning Canadian citizens deemed ‘US persons’).

FATCA data is scheduled to be transferred to the IRS via the CRA mid-September unless stopped by Canadian courts. Justice Martineau has promised a decision on the summary trial BEFORE this date which if in our favour (a likely possibility) will halt the transfer of the FATCA data until the whole issue is resolved in the supreme court.

This means that Canadians banks will be unable to do USA’s bidding, and thus will be in violation of USA’s FATCA meaning they will be subject to 30% withholding on US dollar transfers to Canadian banks. Yes, Canadians with US investments, this affects you.

#149 Bottoms_Up on 08.06.15 at 10:31 pm

#135 tundra pete on 08.06.15 at 10:11 pm
—————————————
Hogwash. Are you able to post one credible source for your supposed fluoride “facts”?

I can post many links to national and international healthcare agencies that have studied the data and know it is safe.

#150 Steerage riff raff on 08.06.15 at 10:42 pm

#145 Henry on 08.06.15 at 10:30 pm

Lala @19

“i have decided to go back where I belong…”

Dear Lala,

Don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out!
————————-
Can’t miss… he seems to just be a giant ASS.

#151 Bottoms_Up on 08.06.15 at 10:44 pm

#123 stage1dave on 08.06.15 at 9:36 pm
———————————–
Funny how CNRL blames taxes yet they are deferred…they also don’t mention the largesse of executive salary which is paid first before reporting EBITDA. A company that nets billions in profits should not be crying like a little baby when they are forced (by the people) to pay their fair share. Hey CNRL exec., why don’t you look in the mirror?

#152 Small_Town_Steve on 08.06.15 at 10:51 pm

You get the government you deserve…
Judging from the comments of the pro-NDP on this site you will as well as unfortunately the rest of us soon be seeing this play out. As Garth says “This won’t end well”.
Regardless of whooo gets elected tough times are ahead, however if the NDP get their claws into us those tough times are going to be hitting harder anddd faster. Any recovery we may expect will be 10 years from now or longer, not 2 or 3 years..

#153 gut check on 08.06.15 at 10:51 pm

#66 Devore & #79 Devore

are these posts really by the same person?
in #66 Devore says that corporations react to increases in costs by laying off people. But #79 Devore says that cost of production doesn’t determine price, demand does.

So I guess CNRL *could* raise prices instead of laying people off.. but then I guess they CAN’T raise prices, because there is no demand.

If there is no demand then I guess they just have to take the sh!t-kicking that is coming to them, since that’s how business works.

Or do I not even business, bro?

#154 DON on 08.06.15 at 10:53 pm

“There comes a point at which the cost of money no longer matters”

Why people don’t get this…

Everything has a tipping point, the laws of nature and science apply even to humans. Why not diversify our economy. Too many biased politicians pandering only to one or two interests. Short sighted and a lack of vision.

#155 Gulf Breeze on 08.06.15 at 10:56 pm

Saskatoon,

“Creating jobs” has an altruistic sound. ‘Buying labor’ is more apt, has the right self serving flavour. Not to say serving self is always wrong. But really, a world with more a sense of ‘we’ and less of the Narcissistic Hell we are currently enduring, seems pretty appealing.

The hard right is a refuge for inadequate males everywhere. I thought when drugs for E.D. hit the markets ‘we’ would see a marked change.

And as far as using we rather than ‘I’, would you prefer Trump-speak? Me, me,me,me!

Garth leans to the right, but not the hard right, so sanity prevails.

#156 DON on 08.06.15 at 10:57 pm

#1 TurnerNation on 08.06.15 at 5:27 pm

Molson-Coors sales down 15% last quarter?
Oh their eponymously-named swill.

*********************************

BAD Beer…lots of new choices. The war on micro breweries has been mention in the MSM.

#157 gut check on 08.06.15 at 11:00 pm

@ garth :
To be correct – CNRL is blaming the government not for its problems, but for making them worse. — Garth
****************************************

I welcome them to the club.

#158 jeff on 08.06.15 at 11:01 pm

Companies create condos, cars, widgets and almost everything you can imagine.

But they don’t create jobs.

They buy labour as much as they need, whenever they need it. Not more, not less. Just like anything else that is required for the company to exist and possibly prosper.

Companies love to claim that they “create jobs” in order to turn their need for labour into political capital and preferably to even more direct financial gains, like tax credits or subsidies, paid from taxes.

I have started companies and created jobs. And you? — Garth
__________________________

…, and without the labour of the employees the owners make nothing, labour is key, owners take note

#159 Carpe Diem on 08.06.15 at 11:01 pm

I’ve been gone a while.
I do not post often.
When I do .. who cares?
I was twice Deleted.
I read this blog daily.

I stopped reading 3 weeks ago.
My mother-in-law passed away.
Tragic death … very hard on my wife and brother-in-law.
I was in BC/Vancouver/Richmond for 2 weeks.
If I would live somewhere in Vancouver, it would be in Richmond.
Fast access to Downtown with the skytrain and overall a nice place to live.
I was driving a friend’s car while in Vancouver. I still state – BC “N” drivers are scary!!!

What I have learnt …

People … have a WILL .. and register it!!!

OR make sure people have copies of it.

Aside from struggling about her mom passing away, my wife is searching for a safety deposit box – we have a key but no idea about the bank.

People … get your shit together and make things easy in case the worst happens!!!

The worst happened for my wife. She has not seen her 3 kids under 10 for 3 weeks.

She is coming in 2 days on a Red Eye flight. When my kids wake up, mom will be home.

I’ll have our WILL drawn up this weekend and then I go see lawyer to register it.

#160 DON on 08.06.15 at 11:03 pm

#3 Love my Kia on 08.06.15 at 5:41 pm

If an oil company can’t turn any profit with a 2% increase in tax, then they shouldn’t be in business anyway.

***************************

And…they started the continuing layoffs prior to the Albertan provincial election. And another round is coming. Attacking provincial leaders says a lot, can’t run on good platform or past successes. We all new CMHC was our QE in the financial crisis. We always seem to follow the US usually 4-6 years behind on average. We kicked the can down the road and here we stand on the edge of the cliff with no parachute. FUBAR!

#161 Joe Voter Bonafide on 08.06.15 at 11:05 pm

Harper will get elected because Mulcair and Trudeau do not have the capability and connections to manage foreign policy. I think Canada would look weaker internationally with them in charge sorry to say. People see this and Harper calls it how it is..at least he can take action..the other parties would be delays and not sure of who is in charge to do what..peacekeeping role or join NATO or not or who knows?. With Harpsy you know he is in charge.

#162 BS on 08.06.15 at 11:09 pm

How is Norway coping with low oil prices….Garth??

Norway pulls 5 times the oil per capita that Canada does with a much lower extraction cost. They have no laws preventing them from drilling off the coast like Canada. A view off the coastline in Norway is all oil rigs. Still they need double the tax rates of Canada even when they net over 10 times per capita on oil compared to Canada. Norway is an example of how not to run a country. If Norway was well managed they should have the lowest tax rates with all that oil.

#163 OttawaMike on 08.06.15 at 11:14 pm

#21 Nora Lenderby on 08.06.15 at 6:01 pm

(OttawaMike: your gallant fight against the forces of unreason is noted, but you’re wasting time arguing with someone who is wrong on the Internet :-)
—————————————————

I know and some of these commenters should just heed wise old Abe Lincoln’s advice from 1865 – “The trouble with quotes on the Internet is that it’s difficult to determine whether or not they are genuine.”

To Gutcheck:
Suppliers of HFS to most of N America including Ottawa are Solvay and Mosaic.

I’m sorry that I couldn’t come up with a more evil list of corporations like Monsanto, Walmart, Exxon or Union Carbide.

#164 DON on 08.06.15 at 11:15 pm

#13 Waterloo Resident on 08.06.15 at 5:56 pm

…So if the demand for our STUFF is crashing, and jobs going with it, who’s going to be working to keep our housing bubble inflated at these sky-high levels?…

Well when you only need to apply the Fluoride to your teeth why apply it to your entire body? SAME REASONING THERE.

Here’s something else interesting I just read:

“Fluoride: Killing Us Softly”

*********************

Easy there…you are applying logic and reasoning. Both of which were four letters words to Archie Bunker. I vote blue cause I always vote blue mentality.

Accepting reality at any age is avoided at all costs by some…until it slaps them in the face.

Nicely put Waterloo.

But

#165 Gregor Samsa on 08.06.15 at 11:15 pm

159 Joe – Harper’s approach to foreign policy was to travel the world hurling insults against Putin (completely amateur hour and non-productive), he failed to secure a seat on UN security council even though it was Canada’s “turn,” this was mostly due to be turning Canada into the most stridently pro-Israel nation on earth (more than the U.S. even). His approach to ISIL is to bomb them, even though we don’t even know who we are bombing… it’s like foreign policy for dummies.

Sometimes, no action is the best action. Just like investing.

#166 Millmech on 08.06.15 at 11:17 pm

I’m hoping for an NDP win,as there will be lots of companies leaving and will need my skills to shutdown,package and restart their plants in new non canadian locations.I have one request already, to look into consulting on a facility move,going Friday at midnight and basically spend the weekend seeing how to unplug and plug back in plant at new location.
Business isn’t waiting to see what happens,they are already making contingency plans and getting things in place for an orderly move.Careful what you wish for.

#167 BS on 08.06.15 at 11:18 pm

I’d remind people that without the NDP advocating for it we likely wouldn’t have universal health care.

We have one of the most inefficient medical systems in the world. Nothing to be proud of. I know you socialists think medical is “free” in Canada, but it isn’t. We rank 30th behind Greece, Columbia and Morocco.

http://thepatientfactor.com/canadian-health-care-information/world-health-organizations-ranking-of-the-worlds-health-systems/

#168 Joblo on 08.06.15 at 11:18 pm

Steve, now THAT was a Disaster!

#169 DisgustMadeMePost on 08.06.15 at 11:22 pm

Ugh, what a mess. I feel myself getting anxious when I read your posts now, Garth.

It’s kind of confusing… I get the sense Harper’s not your fave. But OTOH I don’t get the feeling you support the other guys. Could it be you’re as dissappointed in the choices as the rest of us?

Where is my party indeed!

Oh, and YIKES… 11 weeks of this??

#170 John Prine on 08.06.15 at 11:23 pm

#3 Love my Kia on 08.06.15 at 5:41 pm
If an oil company can’t turn any profit with a 2% increase in tax, then they shouldn’t be in business anyway.

Well said the 20% makes it sound much worse…..Politics…

#171 DON on 08.06.15 at 11:24 pm

#21 Nora Lenderby on 08.06.15 at 6:01 pm

#151 saskatoon on 08.06.15 at 12:11 am
…is it morally just to forcibly medicate the most impoverished of people? shouldn’t this be a choice for them? let me guess…you have made up your mind…and are doing it “for their own good”?

Yes. Fluoride, chlorine. Vaccines. Fortified flour, vitamins in milk, and public health in general

******************************
You mix goods things in with bad things…yes some vaccinations are needed, but flouride isn’t needed in Canada. And there are others ways to filter water but nooooo heaven forbid we look outside the box and learn. We have new technologies now, no longer 1984…then again it is close to 1984 in some ways.

Hey…how about we protect our water sources in the first place. No fracking way eh!

SAD MAD again.

#172 MF on 08.06.15 at 11:24 pm

#159 Joe Voter Bonafide on 08.06.15 at 11:05 pm

No need to say sorry. I am voting for Harper and a large reason why is because of his foreign policy.

Basically his foreign policy + TFSA + the other two suck = my vote for Harper.

MF

#173 BS on 08.06.15 at 11:25 pm

Companies create condos, cars, widgets and almost everything you can imagine.

But they don’t create jobs.

So if a company comes to Canada to set up a workplace and hire workers what would you call it?

Do socialists have a new name for it to try to demonize corporations? You guys need to spend a week in Cuba to see what life looks like if your dream came true. Just without the sun and beaches.

#174 MF on 08.06.15 at 11:25 pm

#12 Blacksheep on 08.06.15 at 5:53 pm

Thanks for the link Blacksheep. I live in the GTA so what you say is very accurate. I see people and I hear about people overextending themselves with multiple rental properties and the like.

Interesting to see how this plays out.

MF

#175 DON on 08.06.15 at 11:30 pm

#29 Shawn on 08.06.15 at 6:12 pm

Consumerism?

#270 Practical_Logical on 08.06.15 at 4:47 pm said:

True enough, but is there another valid reason for the economy to produce anything?

Do you see people stopping consuming things anytime soon?
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I see a forced pull back in many areas if too much debt becomes a constant hangover. Need vs. Want.

#176 one mill is nothing on 08.06.15 at 11:40 pm

Garth,
You can see how dumb the average Canadian is, even on this blog, when they brag about how much money they’ve made by having some assets dominated in USD. Some, like myself, who have the majority of their assets in USD know the opposite – that the 20% or so dominated in CAD is a bad loss that will never be recovered. I still say the CAD is going down to the .30s USD. It’s the only way to unwind the debt overload without having everyone/every government declare bankruptcy. It reminds me when I was a tourist in Bolivia in the early 80’s where they would give you a bag of local currency in exchange for a hundred dollar bill. Can’t happen here you say? Hell, give it ten more years and we’ll have a $5 coin, (a quinty?), and a $10 coin, (a dicey?). One of the reasons everyone is so willing to take out a million dollar loan out is they all know the story. They just don’t understand the tragedy of the commons concept, or believe it applies to them. Yes sir, this is Canada, the best country in the world and everyone desires to be rich.
It’s not that Canadian leadership is the essence of stupidity, it’s just that they’re beholden to the real people in power. How often do you here some political say “jobs, jobs, jobs”, as if they ever do anything that doesn’t harm the creation of jobs. Given that Canada has so many immigrants, why not just reduce the number and then we wont have the need for so many environment destroying jobs.

#177 MF on 08.06.15 at 11:43 pm

#163 Gregor Samsa on 08.06.15 at 11:15 pm

Granted this isn’t a political blog but some of us are very happy with the foreign policy. I do not think it is foreign policy for dummies at all.

I also care not about the UN. Like you said we didn’t get the useless seat because of our pro-Israel stance. Many others secretly support the Israelis too, but are too scared to “upset” anyone. So they pander. We didn’t pander to anyone. It was bold.

To be honest, the UN is an inept and worthless organization anyways.

I say good job.

MF

#178 DON on 08.06.15 at 11:45 pm

How is Norway coping with low oil prices….Garth??

With a 25% GST. — Garth

*********************************

The medicine is always disliked but needed. Might help those save more money to invest in their portfolios and created there own pensions. Want vs. Need. Do I really need plastic crap from that breaks 3-6 months later or do I buy quality stuff once…that I can even fix if broken. Nothing like quality and substance.

It all about balance when it comes to dispensing the medicine. Shock theory is lazy the gradient effect works much better. The herd are rational people for the most part just go on a tangent when they communally go after stuff they like or other people like.

#179 BS on 08.06.15 at 11:51 pm

Buying labour is not different from buying other materials, products or services.

With your logic when your company buys a computer, it “creates computer”.

Total nonsense.

When a computer sells it creates a sale. If a company employs a person through a new job they create a job. Get it?

You must be an NDP economist.

#180 Sheane Wallace on 08.06.15 at 11:51 pm

#174 one mill is nothing

It would be CAD in the 0.40-es for sure. Yes, they will kill it.

#181 tundra pete on 08.06.15 at 11:52 pm

147 bottoms up.

No need to post any facts. Open your eyes sunshine. I recommend you drink plenty of the stuff. A little extra for you cuz you are special. Moron.

#182 Unhinged Loon on 08.06.15 at 11:56 pm

I say tax the oil and gas people.

We don’t want an economy reliant solely on plundering the natural bounty of the land, like some crude colonial outpost of centuries past.

I hope the NDP sweep in with a majority.

What I don’t understand in your dogma Garth, is an unacknowledged approval of the current government, under whose tenure, according to your broad themes, we see the prelude to a great debt calamity…

So Garth, why not an NDP government?

#183 BS on 08.06.15 at 11:58 pm

What kind of special knowledge/skills are required by a CEO or VP of an oil company.
You look for oil, then you drill and pump it and then sell it.
No need to hire an Einstein for that.

Should there be a requirement to have an IQ above 80 to vote? I am starting to think so.

#184 Hostile Hostel on 08.06.15 at 11:59 pm

#32 Austrian Ex-Pat on 08.06.15 at 6:19 pm
.. I work as a liftie during the winter and mountain guide in the summer … I drink great beer, eat great food and am well taken care of by an affluent, older woman. …!”

Be careful, this could be a trap….the cougar-frau could just be fattening you up turkey-style before selling you off to an Eastern European torture chamber…..watch the movie Hostel, weird sh*t happens in that part of the world. Sutton is safer!

#185 Labour, lies and subsidies on 08.07.15 at 12:07 am

#171 BS on 08.06.15 at 11:25 pm

Companies create condos, cars, widgets and almost everything you can imagine.

But they don’t create jobs.

So if a company comes to Canada to set up a workplace and hire workers what would you call it?

Do socialists have a new name for it to try to demonize corporations? You guys need to spend a week in Cuba to see what life looks like if your dream came true. Just without the sun and beaches.

=======

The company buys available labor on the open market.
Pretty simple.

If they happen to be a state of the art, highly efficient, fully automated business, they would just buy robots.

The same way as they buy or rent all the other things they need to run their business.

They would have no clue how Cuba, the sun and beaches enters your confused mind in this most basic business transaction.

#186 DON on 08.07.15 at 12:11 am

#98 betamax on 08.06.15 at 8:27 pm

#6 Boombust: “I’ll be voting NDP all the way. I’m not “scared” one tiny bit. The same is true for many of my friends and family.”

When it all goes south, you can console each other.
***************************

It already has gone south…in fact deep south. Ah that’s right I forgot we are in the best shape ever…the bar has been lowered to the ground. Inverted logic. Eureka!

Have corporate taxes been higher in the past? Balance is needed not excess in either direction.

In the scheme off things corporations are reaching the tipping point. Balance is always required.

#187 meslippery on 08.07.15 at 12:11 am

Every entrepreneur creates jobs and hopes for demand to sustain them, then to create more. Try it some time. — Garth

Ok but if this entrepreneur only pays me enough to pay
rent, food and bus pass.
Unless he is a landlord or sells food or has a bus.
there is no money left to buy your product.

#188 TDS on 08.07.15 at 12:15 am

Jon Stewart’s last show tonight…bummer

#189 DON on 08.07.15 at 12:20 am

#112 Kev on 08.06.15 at 9:07 pm

Garth, it hurts your credibility when you stump for the Conservatives with your labeling of the NDP as socialists. You are far too politically sophisticated to believe this and you better believe the people reading your blog know that as well.

Canada’s NDP is a member of Socialist International. — Garth
*********************************

I like socialism, conservatism, liberalism, capitalism. They are all required – and in balance makes for a good com…munity. It’s when political party corrupts the meaning and stakes its interest around one word. That is when things become nutty. (que the circus theme)

Balance must be applied to everything in life not just investing. The pillars of a rewarding, healthy life.

#190 NDP man on 08.07.15 at 12:28 am

Boombust on 08.06.15 at 5:44 pm
I’ll be voting NDP all the way. I’m not “scared” one tiny bit.

The same is true for many of my friends and family.

____________________________________

No one is voting NDP. NDP Mulcair is a conservative wolf in NDP clothing. Your propaganda is weak . Not going to happen. Mulcair and Harper are done. Why do you think all the attack ads on Liberals? Harper is scared as he should be.

#191 Labour, lies and subsidies on 08.07.15 at 12:29 am

#177 BS on 08.06.15 at 11:51 pm

Buying labour is not different from buying other materials, products or services.

With your logic when your company buys a computer, it “creates computer”.

Total nonsense.

When a computer sells it creates a sale. If a company employs a person through a new job they create a job. Get it?

You must be an NDP economist.

====

The company buys adequate mount of labor from the existing supply on the market.

Where is the need to waste time, effort, money “to create” anything? What you need is already available for you to buy.

Get it?

Pretty basic Capitalist market economy.

#192 8102 on 08.07.15 at 12:30 am

“If an oil company can’t turn any profit with a 2% increase in tax, then they shouldn’t be in business anyway.”
————
What an idiot.

______________

I guess I am an idiot then, because I too will be voting NDP.

I am fed up with the crap and pure skulduggery coming out of the Governing Party and I can only hope that enough people feel the same way and they are tossed.

I have have been 100% behind you with your position on many things Garth and I think you are a very wise and very well spoken man and I have immense respect for you but I cannot support you on your views on the NDP, and I think your continued cheap shots leveled against them are just cheap partisan politicking by you.

Like it or not “times are changing” and what is important to the old guard may not mean as much to the new wave of voters.

#193 Musty Basement Dweller on 08.07.15 at 12:32 am

Good to see Justin do better than the previously angry bearded guy. For the sake of my investments I hope Justin will take votes away from the ndp and let the least of the evils get back in.

#194 DON on 08.07.15 at 12:42 am

#136 Chillie on 08.06.15 at 10:13 pm

Garth: Enjoy your blog for quite a few years now. Just wondering after reading all these pro left wing comments, is there any way you could run an updated poll to see who the sheeple are going to vote for. Maybe also remind them about Grecian politics and Ont. and BC Govts. of the not too recent past.
**********************

Or an expose on the parties that put us in our current predicaments. We are in the present now. And how did we get to such a dismal state. Which parties put us here? That’s what I want to know, both provincial and federal. We can only deal in the present. Nice try at deflection though.

Geeezus.

#195 Marco on 08.07.15 at 12:43 am

Thanks Garth.

There is another Party other then the NDP. A Liberal Government with a closer philosophy to the Obama administration, sounds like good business for Canada to me.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/for-harper-obama-is-another-trudeau/article23584567/

U.S. ambassador Bruce Heyman is being frozen out. Mr. Obama’s man in Ottawa can’t even get meetings with cabinet ministers. There are several bilateral irritants, but the White House refusal to approve the Keystone XL pipeline is at the heart of the matter.

Cheers.

#196 SquareNinja on 08.07.15 at 12:45 am

#16 Luis – I totally agree with you; both about Garth and about Harper.

#197 DON on 08.07.15 at 12:48 am

#164 Millmech on 08.06.15 at 11:17 pm

I’m hoping for an NDP win,as there will be lots of companies leaving and will need my skills to shutdown,package and restart their plants in new non canadian locations.I have one request already, to look into consulting on a facility move,going Friday at midnight and basically spend the weekend seeing how to unplug and plug back in plant at new location.
Business isn’t waiting to see what happens,they are already making contingency plans and getting things in place for an orderly move.Careful what you wish for
***********************

They have been leaving for years…I wished for a responsible government last election to bring back manufacturing but its still leaving. They are leaving regardless it is a new business model. So staying the course will make them stay. ah yes the inverted logic.

#198 DON on 08.07.15 at 12:53 am

#171 BS on 08.06.15 at 11:25 pm

Companies create condos, cars, widgets and almost everything you can imagine.

But they don’t create jobs.

So if a company comes to Canada to set up a workplace and hire workers what would you call it?

Do socialists have a new name for it to try to demonize corporations? You guys need to spend a week in Cuba to see what life looks like if your dream came true. Just without the sun and beaches.
*****************************************

Cuba is a dictatorship…that wrongly touts the socialist banner.

#199 DON on 08.07.15 at 12:55 am

Got an idea.

Let’s abolish the senate and use the funds to run referendums on all major policy, trade and legislative issues. Power would lie with the people not a select few in leadership. Wait a minute…sorry I was thinking outside the box. I’ll sit in the corner now.

#200 kommykim on 08.07.15 at 1:06 am

RE #156 jeff on 08.06.15 at 11:01 pm
…, and without the labour of the employees the owners make nothing, labour is key, owners take note

Exactly! Employees produce X amount of income for the corporation and the corporation pays them less than X so they can make a profit.
The employee essentially gets lower wage volatility in exchange for earning less than what his skills are truly worth.

#201 liquidincalgary on 08.07.15 at 1:16 am

If an oil company can’t turn any profit with a 2% increase in tax, then they shouldn’t be in business anyway.

================================================

ok. basic math. that “2% increase” is two percentage points. it works out to a 20% increase in the level of taxation. the tax rate went from 10% to 12%…a 20% increase. are you sure you fit in with the average person here?

#202 Mister Obvious on 08.07.15 at 1:17 am

The National Post thought Justin won by a hair. Or did they mean that his hair won? I dunno.

I watched the whole two hours. Nobody won or lost as far as I could see. Excellent moderator. Lots of good questions were asked but not necessarily answered satisfactorily.

I did learn some things I didn’t know before. I also
noticed that Elizabeth May is quite a bit sharper than I had previously given her credit for.

Still… I’m not voting Green.

#203 liquidincalgary on 08.07.15 at 1:27 am

The velocity of money is dead. It’s slowed like never before.

================================================

velocity of money is dependent upon getting said money into the general economy.

if you don’t qualify for a loan/mortgage, why would your mom, or even a bank, give you any money? ergo, money NOT going into the economy.

velocity of money is such a useless/backwards looking metric

#204 Tom from Mississauga on 08.07.15 at 1:30 am

The Canadian banks will have a similar provision when they report the end of August? Will their shares get beaten up thereafter if the federal NDP leads the polls? Time to lighten up on the XIU?

#205 Mixed Bag on 08.07.15 at 1:34 am

#55 Nagraj on 08.06.15 at 7:26 pm

Now I understand the source of the uniqueness of your posts. Perhaps, you are a distant relation to Dieter Sprockets?

#206 liquidincalgary on 08.07.15 at 1:35 am

Deano says:

lets not make it sound like corporations drop jobs like candies for us to consume.

================================================

i would LOVE to hire at least two more people; instead, i have let the contract driver go, and must let one salaried employee go as well. it will only get worse from here. just wait and see what the winter drilling (or rather idle rigs) numbers bring!

#207 chapter 9 on 08.07.15 at 1:38 am

#180 Unhinged Loon
I say tax the oil and gas people.

Been there,done that! Called the National Energy Plan. The NDP Prime minister, Pierre Trudeau and his vision of state intervention and control brought Alberta to it’s knees with taxes on operating revenues of oil and gas companies. Export taxes were increased and they put a limit on export permits.
Do you know what came out of that, banks went broke, massive job losses, investment and people left this country,housing went down the tubes,people committed suicide, marriages failed.
Ya, let’s see that shit happen again!!!

#208 Danger Dan on 08.07.15 at 1:38 am

I might just vote NDP because their policies I don’t agree with still look better than the Con or Liberal policies I don’t agree with. I don’t have any debts and I don’t care about what social class gets screwed, let’s see some of the stuff that made me proud to be a Canadian in the first place or I’ll simply vote with my feet and leave.

#209 Rural Rick on 08.07.15 at 1:54 am

“but fluoride isn’t needed in Canada.”
Yeah right. Without fluoride 16 year olds in Toronto would still be getting dentures.
Fluoride occurs naturally. This was learned was because of the huge differences in rates of dental caries from one watershed to another. This is science.
You need to know that is the children and the poor that lose teeth needlessly from a lack of flouride in the water.
Your tinhat theories about fluoridation based on bs is doing damage to the poor and children. Stop repeating crap . Learn some science.
Who wants to buy a house in a neighbourhood that gives your kid cavities?

#210 Retired Boomer - WI on 08.07.15 at 1:58 am

#157 CARPE DIEM

So sorry for your loss. Look for an old invoice from the Bank for the annual rental on the safety deposit box. Might well be with your MIL’s old bills. (Hopefully she kept them).

Next Best, take the key to her Bank, she might not have had the box there, but their are usually numbers on the keys which will clue you into the correct financial place.

Congrats on the Will. It is astounding that in the US 40% die without a will, or instructions to their survivors! Leaves a hell of a mess!

RB

#211 Harp Sangha on 08.07.15 at 2:08 am

Hi Garth, my simple question is does anyone running for public office in Canada know what is the “bond market”.

#212 Lorne on 08.07.15 at 2:22 am

#160 BS
Norway pulls 5 times the oil per capita that Canada does with a much lower extraction cost. They have no laws preventing them from drilling off the coast like Canada. A view off the coastline in Norway is all oil rigs. Still they need double the tax rates of Canada even when they net over 10 times per capita on oil compared to Canada. Norway is an example of how not to run a country. If Norway was well managed they should have the lowest tax rates with all that oil.
…….
Perhaps they take it upon themselves to look after ALL their citizens a lot better than we do…so they save a large portion of the oil revenues to provide a safety net for all….in good times and bad….something the Conservatives in Alberta chose not to do.

#213 Mark on 08.07.15 at 2:32 am

Some, like myself, who have the majority of their assets in USD know the opposite – that the 20% or so dominated in CAD is a bad loss that will never be recovered. I still say the CAD is going down to the .30s USD. It’s the only way to unwind the debt overload without having everyone/every government declare bankruptcy.

This is nonsensical. If you think Canada has a debt problem (which it really doesn’t), then the USA is dramatically worse. If currencies were to revert to where they should be based on trade balances or per capita debt, it would be the US dollar plummeting. In fact, that’s what I think will happen.

Canadian debtors in the residential sector will not be bailed out with a depreciated dollar. However, creditors who smartly invested their money will benefit through deflation — that is, the dollar gaining value, as retail mortgage borrowers enter a spiral of decreasing house prices, higher spreads, and ultimately, significant austerity in the view of paying back debt. Highly deflationary, to the benefit of creditors and the banks who will convert their fiat claims to assets for a fraction of their formerly inflated value.

Obviously there will be some big winners, and big losers. The big winners will be the relatively small chunk of Canadians who avoided excess RE investment, put their money into out-of-favour stocks. The big losers will be the Canadians who over-indulged in housing, whether as a younger family on a CMHC insured subprime loan, or as an almost-retiree who will find that their home equity nest-egg really isn’t much of a nestegg at all with declining prices and very limited access to mortgage credit.

Besides, most of the evidence points to the recent fall in the CAD$ as being speculatively driven. And for a little while, speculators can create their own version of reality. But fundamentals will effectively assert themselves.

#214 millenial1982 on 08.07.15 at 2:33 am

Looks like the next 11 weeks are going to be pretty hot here on the fools blog and maybe a few weeks after the election as well. People are not going to get along well and there will be lines drawn in the sand.

Anyone doubting the importance of business and corporations should look no further than the typical small town or city where crippling effects are immediately felt. Take for example back when the wood industry got wacked thanks to a high CDN dollar, lousy US lumber demand, and ridiculous hydro rates making mills unprofitable and forced their closures. Union workers thought they were tough and deserved said pay and wouldn’t budge. Oops, no company no job pals. This was a nightmare situation up here in Northwestern Ontario for several years. Mills shut down left and right laying off hundreds of workers at the mills, thousands of indirect workers harvesting the wood in the bush, haulers, sales, repairs you name it. A load of people without good paying jobs meant a lot less investment back into the community and small business. Everyone suffers. Sound bad? Not to mention pensions went into jeopardy mode for those mill workers and MPAC property reassessments (major tax reductions) sent some Municipalities into a major deficit position putting strain on operations and further cutbacks and layoffs. I could go on all day with further examples and details from this reality. It appears the last thing this country needs is anything to hamper JOBS in such a precarious time.

Go figure, since that time homes have doubled in price here….goes to show you how ridiculous things are.

#215 Van real on 08.07.15 at 2:47 am

i’m reading all these posts in support of the NDP and I’m shaking my head in frustration. I thought the readers of this blog were supposedly financially astute and yet most seem to be in favour of voting in a party that will destroy this country economically even more than the conservatives have done. We can’t support a 15 dollar minimum wage nor higher corporate taxes. We are doomed.

#216 drydock on 08.07.15 at 3:27 am

110 Nora Lenderby on 08.06.15 at 9:00 pm
……………………………………………………………….

“Neither a borrower nor a lender be;
For loan oft loses both itself and friend”

#217 Leo Trollstoy on 08.07.15 at 4:27 am

Give the NDP a majority.

I wanna get this recession started already.

#218 Not a Harper Lover BUT... on 08.07.15 at 4:59 am

People are angry about the economy and blame Harper.

The oil price drop is an external shock manufactured by OPEC to stall US energy self sufficiency by making shale oil economically unviable. Canada got caught in the cross hairs of that and not Harper’s doing.

The Chinese “slow down” has depressed mining and metal commodity prices. Australia and New Zealand suffering like Canada and have seen as well their currencies devalue as well. Again, not Harper’s doing.

In theory, the Bank of Canada is independent of the Government. The effects of rate cuts are not Harper’s doing.

You can blame him and Oliver for assuming a $55 per bbl. average oil price in this year’s budget and the tax shortfall it will create. But nobody, not even a few months ago, foresaw a $46 or so oil price…not even the oil companies which are the experts here.

Better instead to determine which leader and their policies make the most sense to lead us out of mess we are in.

Humanity has the habit, in times is adversity, of swing fr 0 degrees to the opposite 180 degree position and where history teaches us that somewhere in the middle is where we invariably end up.

Be critical of Harper on what he has done and do not blame him for results beyond his or any of our control.

#219 Steve French on 08.07.15 at 5:23 am

#160 BS

“Norway is an example of how not to run a country. If Norway was well managed they should have the lowest tax rates with all that oil.”

——–

– Well Jesus H Christ Son of Mary Mother of Jesus,

Norway has a US$900 BILLION sovereign wealth fund.

Alberta has monster debts, and monster trucks with cow balls dangling from their license plates.

How does that feel? To know Alberta has blown one of the biggest economic windfalls in history, with nothing to show for it?

Doesn’t feel too good, does it?

Ya, I thought so.

#220 liquidincalgary on 08.07.15 at 5:57 am

Shawn’s suggestions for over capacity oil:

Or maybe an old gold mine would make a useful storage bin?

================================================

remember CCS (now Tervita). they clean out the tanks of oil hauling trucks. pump the ‘waste’ into salt caverns where eventually the oil separates from the contaminants.

not only do they charge a premium for this, but after the crude has separated from it’s contaminants, they then pump up the oil to be sold

#221 tkid on 08.07.15 at 6:15 am

#180 – why not an NDP government?

1. Because they will take steps to hammer corporations with taxes, even struggling corporations. This leads to job loss, and possibly losing those corporations to bankruptcy or the corporation moving to friendlier countries. Good bye any taxes you expected from the corporation.

2. Because they intend to accelerate things like minimum wages, EI payments, welfare, and other socialist goodies. These things cost money.

3. Because increasing spending while decreasing taxes collected means provincial and federal debts increase. Sooner or later this road leads to Greece.

Don’t get me wrong, I like socialism, but I favour limiting socialism to that which we can afford while ENCOURAGING corporations and small businesses.

If the Conservatives can’t knock it off with the ‘let’s promote real estate program’ then I’ll to have to vote Liberal. I don’t like any of ’em, NDP C L, but right now the Liberals are the party I dislike the least.

#222 Herb on 08.07.15 at 7:08 am

Thank you, Llewelyn, for throwing some light on a dark subject at #85 and 131. Garth’s lament about CNRL immediately brought to mind “creative accounting.” If it weren’t for the job- and bonus-creating Enron, it would have been unthinkable to think of a corporation fudging its books creatively.

And thank you, Garth, for introducing me to the phrase “frankennumber”. If you hadn’t, I would not have known what to make of the elevation of a 2% tax increase to an imposing 20%! You’re right of course, an increase from 10% to 12% is a 20% increase in corporate taxation, but it does sound ever so much more horrendous in the abstract statistic rather than in its discrete form.

#223 CJBob on 08.07.15 at 7:31 am

Real Estate in Toronto took a hit in July partially due to the Pan Am games. Real Estate may well have peaked, but cherry picking one data point in one city isn’t the way to tell.

Are you sure it wasn’t the snow? — Garth

#224 jerry on 08.07.15 at 7:40 am

Elzibeth May propsed that increasing corporate taxes would force some of those Billions of corporate “dead money” back into the economy.

Does this make sense?

#225 Sheane Wallace on 08.07.15 at 7:58 am

DELETED

#226 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 08.07.15 at 8:30 am

#216 Not a Harper Lover BUT… on 08.07.15 at 4:59 am
People are angry about the economy and blame Harper.
The oil price drop is an external shock manufactured by OPEC to stall US energy self sufficiency by making shale oil economically unviable. Canada got caught in the cross hairs of that and not Harper’s doing.

The Chinese “slow down” has depressed mining and metal commodity prices. Australia and New Zealand suffering like Canada and have seen as well their currencies devalue as well. Again, not Harper’s doing.

In theory, the Bank of Canada is independent of the Government. The effects of rate cuts are not Harper’s doing.

You can blame him and Oliver for assuming a $55 per bbl. average oil price in this year’s budget and the tax shortfall it will create. But nobody, not even a few months ago, foresaw a $46 or so oil price…not even the oil companies which are the experts here.

Better instead to determine which leader and their policies make the most sense to lead us out of mess we are in.

Humanity has the habit, in times is adversity, of swing fr 0 degrees to the opposite 180 degree position and where history teaches us that somewhere in the middle is where we invariably end up.

Be critical of Harper on what he has done and do not blame him for results beyond his or any of our control.
_____________________________________________

You hit the nail on the head!
“People are angry about the economy and blame Harper.” If it was Trudeau, Mulclair, or May in his place then all the shit they threw on him would have been reversed.

#227 Llewelyn on 08.07.15 at 8:35 am

I just happened to be visiting in Alberta during their last election and was somewhat disapponted with the number of people I met who honestly believed that a proposed 2.0% increase in the Provincial corporate tax rate from 10% to 12% meant that corporate profits would be reduced by 20%.

When Jim Prentice told Rachel Notley that “math was hard” he was trying to convince Alberta voters that corporations would face a 20% hike in taxes.

Setting aside all the deferral games that are allowed under GAAP a company with net income of $5.0 million would pay $1.2 million in income taxes at a combined rate of 24.0% and $1.3 million at combined rate of 26.0%.

Net profit would be reduced from $3.8 million to a measly $3.7 million, a reduction of 2.6% not 20% as many contributors to this blog seem so concerned about.

It was only a few weeks ago that the Troika tabled a list of austerity measures to the government of Greece and contributors to this blog all chanted ‘they had it coming’.

Now we have a Provincial government struggling to survive without going deeply into debt and somehow they are being labelled as “dumbasses”.

Enough with the name calling. I am evaluating all possible solutions to our impending economic crisis with an open mind and I urge all contributors to this blog to do the same.

Commodity prices are being brutalized, along with commodity-based companies and the Albertans who work for them. The point of my post was, I thought, able to be grasped by an intellectual like you: this is not the time to be increasing any burden which will exacerbate the problem and likely reduce profits, future government revenues and employee head counts. Only a dogmatic, dumbass politician who have never worked in the private sector would be so myopic. — Garth

#228 Karma on 08.07.15 at 8:42 am

Etats-Unis! Etats-Unis!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-07/payrolls-in-u-s-increased-215-000-in-july-in-broad-based-gain

#229 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 08.07.15 at 8:43 am

#200 Mister Obvious on 08.07.15 at 1:17 am

The National Post thought Justin won by a hair. Or did they mean that his hair won? I dunno.

I watched the whole two hours. Nobody won or lost as far as I could see. Excellent moderator. Lots of good questions were asked but not necessarily answered satisfactorily.

I did learn some things I didn’t know before. I also
noticed that Elizabeth May is quite a bit sharper than I had previously given her credit for.

Still… I’m not voting Green.
_____________________________________________
What drive me nuts is the way that these contenders behave by constantly interrupting however has the podium at any particular juncture. When I was in school if you spoke out of turn you either received a smack on the hand with a ruler or where banished to the corner stool. For gods sake contenders be civil and wait your turn. Oh crap I forgot they are politicians. Never Mind!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjYoNL4g5Vg

You’d lose every debate as voters would judge that person to be innocuous, clueless and ineffective. Is that how it works when you debate with your spouse? — Garth

#230 DJIM on 08.07.15 at 8:47 am

If tax is calculated as 12% of profits, I’m not sure how the oil companies can say that extra 2% has converted their profit into a loss.

#231 Espee Engine 4294 on 08.07.15 at 8:56 am

Garth – Great column. Especially the quotes from Rachel Notley. Come October 20th, Prime Minister Thomas Mulcair will be saying much the same thing.

Have faith. The voters have no clue.

#232 nobody on 08.07.15 at 9:19 am

Nice bit of franken-numbering there Garth. Somehow a 2% raise in overall corporate tax from 10 to 12% becomes a 20% raise in taxes. Both correct, but clearly the 20% version does help in making it sounds more unreasonable than it actually is. I guess if it’s good enough for the CNR propaganda machine, it’s good enough for you.

I made this observation, that the Albertan corporate tax rate would rise by 20% under the NDP, prior to the Notley election. Now perhaps you can understand why. — Garth

#233 gut check on 08.07.15 at 9:29 am

@ #161 OttawaMike on 08.06.15 at 11:14 pm

Suppliers of HFS to most of N America including Ottawa are Solvay and Mosaic.

******************************************

Mosaic is making out like a bandit by profiting from the sale of a toxic by product of their phosphate / potash production. They might soon do the same with radium.
Mosaic is Monsanto’s largest competitor and the world’s largest potash/phosphate producer. It isn’t even Canadian.

Solvay! wow… quite the company, had never heard of them. they offer a cornucopia of toxic health hazards for sale! BPA, formaldehyde, fluorine and a hundred or so more chemicals. I’d like to share a quote from their website:

“Our team of expert panel managers provides the vision and guidance as the panels execute their strategic plans and navigate challenging legislative and regulatory environments”

This’ll get easier with the passing of the TPP though. No more ‘challenging legislative and regulatory environments’ to worry about. I wonder if jobs will be lost in this sneaky little department?

#234 gut check on 08.07.15 at 9:39 am

#230
yes, I was thinking the same thing re the 2% / 20% verbiage.

it’s just PR BS but will have desired effect.
Edward Bernays style! Frank Luntz style!

all those creeps who want to win elections via advertising rather than offering anything of value.

By the way, in the debates, why does Harper always have to have that tone where it sounds like he’s ‘just about had enough of talking about this stuff with people who just don’t understand anything’ ?? A whining, exasperated, patronizing stance that is only attractive to authoritarians who need a Daddy.

#235 Nora Lenderby on 08.07.15 at 9:42 am

#214 drydock on 08.07.15 at 3:27 am
110 Nora Lenderby on 08.06.15 at 9:00 pm

“Neither a borrower nor a lender be;
For loan oft loses both itself and friend”

Well that makes several persons of culture and learning (at least you and Nagraj, anyway).

Unfortunately my alter ego is named after the Mortgage Loan Consultant for these guys:
http://www.cartalk.com/content/staff-credits

#236 Bottoms_Up on 08.07.15 at 9:45 am

You’d lose every debate as voters would judge that person to be innocuous, clueless and ineffective. Is that how it works when you debate with your spouse? — Garth
———————————
Agreed Garth, we are electing someone who will fight for Canada. They need to show spunk, and that’s where Mulcair went wrong and Trudeau did well (May always does well she’s smart). I thought the debate was very civil given the circumstances.

#237 Bottoms_Up on 08.07.15 at 9:47 am

I made this observation, that the Albertan corporate tax rate would rise by 20% under the NDP, prior to the Notley election. Now perhaps you can understand why. — Garth
———————————
And how much did the conservatives drop the corporate tax by? 50%?

#238 Daisy Mae on 08.07.15 at 9:50 am

#68: “Status quo doesn’t appear to be working for us right now, and this is no time for voter apathy.”

****************

Apathy? Probably more anger, disgust, and frustration.

#239 Bottoms_Up on 08.07.15 at 9:51 am

#222 jerry on 08.07.15 at 7:40 am
——————————–
I think the point was if corporations had a higher tax rate, number 1 more money would circulate back into the economy via government spending and number 2 is an incentive for corporations to spend more of their earnings such as investment in machinery if they get a balance sheet credit for it.

#240 Nora Lenderby on 08.07.15 at 9:52 am

#128 saskatoon on 08.06.15 at 9:55 pm
#110 Nora Lenderby
#109 James
commies don’t have an “I”…notice how they use “we” to represent “their” own beliefs.
recent scary examples above:
“we cannot trust people to save money for their retirement we have to force them…”

I am sorry, Mr. S… At first I completely misunderstood your word “commie” to mean “Communist” and that you intended it as a choleric insult to both me and to the administrations of most governments since Bismarck, when in fact you actually meant “community-minded”.

We, my neighbours, my fellow village-people, my family, my friends, my countrymen, and, even you, are on this planet together for a short while.

So let’s have a nice chorus of Kumbaya, shall we?

#241 Llewelyn on 08.07.15 at 10:02 am

Not to belabour the point but not all companies in Alberta, or Canada, for that matter are commodity based. You seem to be indicating that shareholders should continue to get their dividends but their is no room to reduce corporate profits by 2.6% in an effort to maintain the essential services that support the businesses, like good roads.

If you honestly feel that a very modest reduction in corporate profits will exacerbate the budget deficit in Alberta and force companies into bankruptcy then Canada really is in bad shape.

Your concern that profits are the source of capital necessary to expand the Canadian economy might be a little more convincing if you hadn’t spent the last six months advising your many followers to abandon Canadian equities in favour of jurisdictions where the effective corporate tax rate is substantially higher that the current corporate tax rate in Alberta.

In my humble opinion directing investors to abandon Canadian equities while pretending to be concerned about their economic future seems just a touch hypocritical.

Now you know what investors should have lightened their Canadian exposure, don’t you? — Garth

#242 Alberta Oil on 08.07.15 at 10:20 am

What ever happened with the Oil Companies fear mongering and telling the world that “Peak Oil” was upon us…….

What oil company was that? — Garth

#243 TorontoBull on 08.07.15 at 10:30 am

@Llewelyn
you make some excellent points. Thank you

#244 Burton on 08.07.15 at 10:33 am

Hey Garth, long time subscriber first post. After reading the posts of the many who are drinking the socialist koolaid, sounds like we may be in for a world of hurt. Just remember ya can’ fix stupid.

#245 Steerage on 08.07.15 at 10:36 am

Only a dogmatic, dumbass politician who have never worked in the private sector would be so myopic. — Garth
———————————————————

Cornflakes off this morning?

There are many of those in all parties. One of them even became PM.

#246 james on 08.07.15 at 10:39 am

Only a dogmatic, dumbass politician who have never worked in the private sector would be so myopic. — Garth

Truer words never spoken, Garth.

This is the key failing of so many of the neocon retards we have suffered under.

Harper? No private sector experience to speak of, a political hack/wannabe all his life. Complete goof.

Mike Harris? A ski bum and failed teacher before sliding into politics barely out of diapers.

Tim Hudak? Another political lifer with nothing else to say for himself.

And Harper is surrounded by similarly inexperienced boys in short pants.

I would rather hire someone with private sector experience as at least half their career. Even the non-profit sector, where they have to be quite entrepreneurial.

But all/mostly government or political experience?

No way. Just not qualified to lead effectively.

This is the biggest failing of our current political classes across Canada.

#247 gut check on 08.07.15 at 10:45 am

“Now you know what investors should have lightened their Canadian exposure, don’t you? — Garth”

yeah, so that we can take out companies ourselves instead of having them pay taxes!

#248 TheManwhoStaresatSheeple on 08.07.15 at 11:09 am

Canada latest employment report for July 2015 is here:
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/150807/dq150807a-eng.htm

The results (non-adjusted, Cansim table 282-0011) for the Year over Year changes are below:

Canada employees- July2014 / July2015 – net change
public sector – 3,455,400 / 3,494,900 – increase of 39,500
private sector – 11,904,000 / 11,967,700 – increase of 63,700

Conclusion – for every THREE new employees in the private sector we have freshly minted TWO public servants to “serve them”. BRILLIANT strategy.

Same thing for the 4 most populous provinces:

Alberta – July2014 / July2015
public sector – 348,700 / 394,000 – increase of 45,300
private sector – 1,564,100 / 1,558,500 – loss of 5,600
OUCH

BC – July2014 / July2015
public sector – 391,900 / 405,600 – increase of 13,700
private sector – 1,513,000 / 1,503,100 – loss of 9,900
Smaller OUCH than Alberta

Quebec – July2014 / July2015
public sector – 860,800 / 884,900 – increase of 24,100
private sector – 2,740,300 / 2,752,000 – increase of 11,700
Public sector outnumber the private sector 2:1

Ontario – July2014 / July2015
public sector – 1,294,000 / 1,259,900 – decrease of 34,100
private sector – 4,625,600 / 4,669,500 – increase of 43,900

Unbelievable results for the running grandma – but lets wait until the September data as these very positive numbers could be the result of the PanScam games – where the public servants deserted the province en mass to avoid transportation headaches and the new private sectors employees were hired by private companies providing services for the PanAm games with their invoices now going to Queen’s park stamped “due now”.

#249 Leo Trollstoy on 08.07.15 at 11:16 am

Besides, most of the evidence points to the recent fall in the CAD$ as being speculatively driven. And for a little while, speculators can create their own version of reality. But fundamentals will effectively assert themselves.

Mark has been down on the USD since 2010.

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/boc-buying-usd-964543/

Hasn’t he lost enough already?

#250 Leo Trollstoy on 08.07.15 at 11:19 am

Mark has been predicting a $1.3-$1.5 loonie a year and a half ago.

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/loonie-against-greenback-ever-going-par-again-1453861/2/#post18456368

Not tired of losing money on the CAD and gold apparently.

#251 StuckInTheMiddle on 08.07.15 at 11:23 am

Any comments on the following divergence in the stock market?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-07/one-would-be-bucking-pretty-stiff-odds-ignore-development

#252 Leo Trollstoy on 08.07.15 at 11:23 am

If it hasn’t been bad enough that Mark has been wrong about the CAD since 2010, he’s also been losing money for over 2 years on gold.

At the end of 2013, he was going to “use approximately 20% of my new funds to invest in this (gold) sector”

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/gold-bubble-bursts-1431262/

#253 Leo Trollstoy on 08.07.15 at 11:25 am

I don’t know the timing of the Fed hike (hint: it doesn’t matter), but today’s jobs report looked solid.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-jobs-report-20150807-story.html

#254 Smoking Man on 08.07.15 at 11:30 am

Holly hangovers, day 4 of retirement is a blur…..

My call: Next President of the USA

Donald Trump…… He has a great connection to the UCC.

Understands Herdonomics….

#255 Steve on 08.07.15 at 11:36 am

Fixed rates may rise, and yes, perhaps at 1% a year as soon as US starts to raise rates, but what’s to prevent homeowners currently in fixed rate mortgages to move to variable rate mortgages instead? That is certainly not expected to climb quickly anytime soon given the current economic climate in Canada.

#256 onpar on 08.07.15 at 11:42 am

Pure rhetoric to use the “20%” quote as opposed to just saying it it going up 2 percentage points. It about time corporations paid more. Where are the corporate tax rates in AB, let alone Canada, as compared with the rest of the western world. Oh ya, EXTREMELY low. I’m so sick of you Boomers being on your knees for the corporations. Love you, Garth, but you’re dead wrong on this. Corporate taxes should be raised SIGNIFICANTLY across the globe.

Fine. Then be prepared for fewer jobs. And what does any of this have to do with ‘boomers’? Weird. — Garth

#257 Obvious Truth on 08.07.15 at 11:46 am

Another stats can stinker. Garths pic should have been included in the report.

Nobody needs or wants the cpeso. Can’t even muster a run at 78. Bankrupt resource companies don’t sell for much. Trade deficits look like a longer term issue.

Remember the days of resource companies being in play for tens of billions of Canuck bucks. Cad had some mojo back then.

But Canadian bank economists like bob porter are largely liking the report says the GM. So I guess were good.

#258 Steerage on 08.07.15 at 11:58 am

#251 Leo Trollstoy on 08.07.15 at 11:25 am

I don’t know the timing of the Fed hike (hint: it doesn’t matter), but today’s jobs report looked solid.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-jobs-report-20150807-story.html

——————————————-

Man you are top of him!… hilarious… the crazy nut has 27,000 posts on there! and he is permanently banned! for being permanently wrong.

#259 pinstripe on 08.07.15 at 11:59 am

the talk at the coffee shop this morning was all about the debate last night. Mcleans put on an excellent debate.

contrary to this blog, harpo claims that the economy is moving along quite well under his direction. jobs are plentiful, wages are on the up trend since he became PM. No recession whatsoever.

mulcair, trudeau, and may did well. Harpo was a total disappointment. now the truth comes out why harpo does not want to take part in any other debates. Canadians do have a choice.

may did an excellent job pointing out that democracy does not exist in Canada with harpo . harpo dictates everyithing. the MPs tow the line. harpo is not a democratic leader but an excellent dictator.

the mood at the coffee shop is enough is ENOUGH. If this mood continues it will allow harpo to join the company of apprentice and Danielle. ABC. Indicators are that most Canadians will have the same opportunity what most Albertans had in the prov election.

a lot of interesting tid bits leaking from the retired CPC MPs.

Why did harpo have such a long nose at the endo of the debate?

#260 TheManwhoStaresatSheeple on 08.07.15 at 11:59 am

Re #226 Karma and #251 Leo Trollstoy

Solid results indeed:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

Behind the surface of these 215,000 “new jobs” created is the fact that 211,000 of them went to people aged 55+ and the remaining 4,000 were for very young people 16-19.

The people aged 20-24 lost 8000 jobs and those in their prime earning years 25-54 lost a whopping 131,000 jobs.
These job losses there went into the 144,000 people who are not interested in participating in the labor market bringing the total to a record 93,770,000 million (participation rate of 62.6% which remains at a level more indicative of the September 1977 economy).
Two-three more years of such a robust “job creation” until we finally see a 9-digit number for non-work participation.

#261 Steerage on 08.07.15 at 12:01 pm

#252 Smoking Man on 08.07.15 at 11:30 am

Holly hangovers, day 4 of retirement is a blur…..

My call: Next President of the USA

Donald Trump…… He has a great connection to the UCC.

Understands Herdonomics….
—————————————
Day 5 – rentals (for recovery)

Trump with access to the red button!

#262 DJ on 08.07.15 at 12:05 pm

Ah, there it is. Garth, you preach fiscal responsibility and not spending more than you can afford. I guess that only means for us slubs. The Province of Alberta and the Oil co’s were flush with cash when the price was $100 a barrel, but the prices drops and we are supposed to feel sorry for them paying a high rate of taxes that should have been standard in the first place. Where is their responsibility for the future? Why did they not prepare for possible tougher times? Simply put… bad management. You use words like “socialism” when describing the NDP in Alberta. You know that there policies are not Socialist, but why not take shots anyway. Your bias is showing… and it looks like cracks in your credibility.

#263 gut check on 08.07.15 at 12:10 pm

Booming US economy has much HIGHER corporate tax rate than flatlining, recessionary Canadian economy. Economic Basketcase Europe has a LOWER corporate tax rate than Canada.

hmmmm… could it be that corporate tax rates are NOT indicative of a country’s well being?

I got this from a tin-foil hat source: KPMG. Here:

“The survey compares corporate and indirect tax rates from more than 125 countries. Canada’s general corporate tax rate of 26 percent for 2012, which includes federal and provincial tax, compares favourably with the U.S. corporate rate of 40 percent but is still higher than the U.K. rate of 24 percent and the European Region average of 20.5 percent.”

http://www.kpmg.com/ca/en/issuesandinsights/articlespublications/press-releases/pages/canadas-corporate-tax-rate-remains-competitive.aspx

Also, Harper cons have reduced the corporate tax rate and look where that got us.

#264 Big Mike on 08.07.15 at 12:12 pm

Well the right wingers have had their chance to do the right things and they did not do it . Wages are stagnant, unfair growth in income disparity, tax breaks for the wealthy. Low-interest rates. The economy still sucks. The conservative myth that low taxes make everything bloom is just wrong. Look at the extreme cases in Kansas and Wisconson, failures.

So a 2% raise is just, and should never have been so low or Alberta would not be broke. I usually agree with Garth but in this case he is out of touch with regular folk and the myth of lower taxes. It does not work.

#265 dontcallmeshirley on 08.07.15 at 12:18 pm

Why not nationalize oil & gas like Saudi?

Saudi Aramco has 60,000 employees, they produce millions of barrels daily without wasteful duplication of executives and backoffice admin. No one can dispute it’s working for the Saudis.

Is the Alberta model really better?

#266 roial1 on 08.07.15 at 12:21 pm

The tax grab increased its DEFERRED tax liability by almost $580 million

Hey Garth, does that not mean that they get to NOT pay their tax till they decide to some time in the future???

CAN I DO THAT?????? Ya! right!

#267 pwn3d on 08.07.15 at 12:27 pm

#254 onpar on 08.07.15 at 11:42 am
Pure rhetoric to use the “20%” quote as opposed to just saying it it going up 2 percentage points
——————-
Huh? Saying it is going up 2 percentage points gives it no context. It is not rhetoric to say what the change means in real terms. You’re paying 20% more to the government than you were before, not 2%.

I feel sorry for Garth, apparently his blog attracts a huge following of left wing basement dwellers who think they deserve a house and are going to get it as soon as the NDP raise taxes on everyone making over 80k and houses drop 80%. Good luck with that.

#268 BigBlockPower on 08.07.15 at 12:29 pm

Garth,

Couldn’t agree more with your blog post..

Felt like I had to contribute after reading all the drivel people are writing about the ‘big bad oil co.s’..

For an oil company, such as CNRL, the cost of doing business in Canada is very high compared to other parts of the world.
In fact, the only reason some Majors drill and produce here at all is to hedge, in other words, produce a product in a politically safe environment.

No one writing in today mentioned the price of securing land leases, production royalty costs, carbon capture costs (which almost doubled) and the cost of labour, which is almost the highest in the world.
The labour cost in Canada is extremely expensive due to exhorbitant government taxation at every level. Period.
The other factor plaguing oil co’s, is the cost of extracting oil out of the ground, which has risen stratospherically. All of the easy oil is gone for the most part. Return on investment is shrinking.

What are people thinking?

How is increasing the corporate tax rate 20% going to stimulate an economy?

How is introducing new taxes and increasing existing tax rates going to stimulate an economy?

The company I work in Nisku for has laid off over 150 people in the last 4 months. 80% of those people were paid 6-digit salaries.
That is a lot of tax revenue that just vanished….

As Margaret Thatcher once said: “Socialism is a great concept until we run out of everyone else’s money”

We are well on our way!

Keep up the good work Garth;)

BBP

#269 fiixie guy on 08.07.15 at 12:33 pm

#19 lala: Life is the moment, life is passion, life is emotion…

Burmashave!

#270 pwn3d on 08.07.15 at 12:39 pm

#250 Leo Trollstoy on 08.07.15 at 11:23 am
If it hasn’t been bad enough that Mark has been wrong about the CAD since 2010, he’s also been losing money for over 2 years on gold.
———————
Been wrong about housing going down in Toronto for the last 3 years too. He’s lucky he has no money to lose on his idiot predictions.

#271 Not Apathetic, Just Rebellious on 08.07.15 at 12:44 pm

#68 Mr. Monday Night
Speaking of voting, I’ve heard more than my fair share of people say that they don’t plan on voting in October – this is coming just days after the election has been called. I really hope that this doesn’t happen; people really need to figure out which issues mean the most to them and base their choices on which candidate best fits what they’re looking for. Status quo doesn’t appear to be working for us right now, and this is no time for voter apathy.
________
Don’t presume it is apathy when people don’t vote. It can also be an act rebellion against a political system that does not work to the benefit of all Canadians. A government built on division, greed, opposition, deceit, corruption does not help or serve the all people. It bonly is serving itself. If the public joined together in a mass and said “No” to the government, what would happen?

#272 chapter 9 on 08.07.15 at 12:46 pm

#196 Don

Interesting that you mentioned Cuba. Pierre Trudeau was a huge admirer of Fidel Castro. In fact he was so impressed when Castro sent troops to Angola to support the Marxist-Leninist Popular Liberation Movement he enabled Cuban transports to refuel in Newfoundland.We also provided the Cuban regime with $4 million in grants and $10 million in loans @3% interest while we were paying four times that on our loans. Canadian taxpayers helping fund a communist dictatorship. Cubans were also allowed to set up and operate guerilla warfare and spy schools in Quebec. It is no wonder that Fidel was an honorary pallbearer at Pierre’s funeral, after all, they were buddies.
And now we have Junior.

#273 Danger Dan on 08.07.15 at 12:51 pm

#213 “We can’t support a 15 dollar minimum wage nor higher corporate taxes. We are doomed.”

Bollocks. Who says? Costco manages to keep shareholders happy while voluntarily paying retail employees above the minimum wage. Walmart is starting to see the light too:

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-23/wal-mart-raises-minimum-wage-as-laws-change-labor-gets-scarce

“In the years since the last federal minimum-wage increase, many of Wal-Mart’s employees had fallen below the poverty level and the strengthening economy has made it harder to attract and retain employees.”

See that? People would rather not work than suffer disgraceful wages. Van real, do YOU shop anywhere the employees get minimum wage? The service is awful because employees who get paid like crap don’t give a rat’s behind about a company they have no stake in or get no real benefit from. If a business can’t get customers because they’re OK with employees that would rather drive customers away than deal with them, that business is gonna have a tough time finding ways to profit.

As far as raising taxes, NDP claims to promote raise taxes on big business and lowering them for small businesses. Seems to make a lot more sense than the Cons M.O. of sending us all to Hell in a handbasket just to bail out RE and O&G because they’re the most significant part of our GDP. Maybe that’s been the problem all along.

It strikes me as rather paradoxical to believe in diversification on an individual level but then back a party that’s been doubling down to save industries that the market just doesn’t value that much these days. As far as dumbass ideas go, it’s not looking like the NDP holds a monopoly over them!

#274 Shawn on 08.07.15 at 12:52 pm

Economics 101

#198 kommykim on 08.07.15 at 1:06 am quoted

RE #156 jeff on 08.06.15 at 11:01 pm
…, and without the labour of the employees the owners make nothing, labour is key, owners take note

and then said:

Exactly! Employees produce X amount of income for the corporation and the corporation pays them less than X so they can make a profit.

The employee essentially gets lower wage volatility in exchange for earning less than what his skills are truly worth.

*****************************************
There are three factors of production

1. Land (which I believe includes resources of the land)
2. Labor
3. Capital (Meaning things like buildings, factories, computers, intellectual property and everything besides land and labor)

All three are needed to make a product. The providers or owners of all three deserve some spoils of the economic system.

Our system is very much interconnected. We need it all (including certainly the law and order of government) to create the living standard that most of us enjoy.

Labor cannot create much without land and capital and law and order.

It’s symbiotic, arguing whether labor is more important than capital or which depends more on the other is like arguing about the importance of the human heart versus the brain or the stomach or other vital organs (called vital for a reason).

#275 Wonk on 08.07.15 at 12:56 pm

Frothing looney left seems to have discovered your blog Garth, I wonder if you were linked on Rabble, or Reddit sometime in the last couple days.

Pravda. — Garth

#276 Practical_Logical on 08.07.15 at 12:59 pm

FYI: There is a $15 USD min wage in Seattle, and they’re doing ok……

#277 gut check on 08.07.15 at 1:00 pm

@ #266 BigBlockPower on 08.07.15 at 12:29 pm

Nice try.

KPMG has done a competitive analysis of business location costs, which factors is all that you are talking about and more. Here are the results from MOST competitive at the top, to least so, a the bottom:

Mexico
CANADA
Netherlands
United Kingdom
France
Italy
Japan
Australia
United States
Germany

Is this SHOCKING your socks off, or what? WHICH economies can we point to RIGHT NOW for being the most viable ??

Oh yes, it’s the US and Germany. Bottom of the above list, indicating that they are the MOST Expensive to do business in.

You get what you pay for.
Everyone remember THAT principle?

source: http://www.competitivealternatives.com/highlights/international.aspx

#278 Mister Obvious on 08.07.15 at 1:04 pm

Seems lots of people get huffy when a change in value of a percentage is expressed as yet another percentage.

While it’s perfectly valid to do that, such derivatives tend to confuse and irritate the innumerate.

Perhaps more time should be spent on this concept in the elementary schools.

#279 DisgustMadeMePost on 08.07.15 at 1:10 pm

Easy to ride good times and look like a hero. The planning for the rough times should have happened during the boom time… Whether talking about Alberta or Canada as a whole. There’s clearly been no foresight here. I consider that leading poorly.

So while i can see it is not going to be a good idea to increase taxes during tougher times of job losses and economic downturns, I think it’s an equally bad idea to allow those that have coasted through the boom years ignorant of future needs, to simply carry on. If you didnt know what to do when times were good, I have NO faith that you’ll know what to do now that the economy has derailed.

Yes, some events may be out of Harper’s control, but did he foresee the possibility??

Hope he bought paddles for the Schooner.

#280 Practical_Logical on 08.07.15 at 1:18 pm

Not to mention that Notely has banned UNION and corporate campaign funding/lobbying! So much for comparing her gov’t to the Glen Clark Regime in BC.

#75 Berniebee on 08.06.15 at 7:55 pm
Just so we are all on the same page:

Alberta’s general corporate tax rate was raised from 10% to 12 % on July 1st. The SMALL business rate was left unchanged at 3%.

I may not be in love with all their policies but it looks to me like Alberta’s NDP understands where most jobs are created.

#281 Bottoms_Up on 08.07.15 at 1:23 pm

#179 tundra pete on 08.06.15 at 11:52 pm
—————————————–
Riiiiiight, cause the best arguments are supported by “faith” and ad homenin attacks. That’s ripe.

Your lack of data and inability to provide supporting links isn’t surprising.

#282 gut check on 08.07.15 at 1:25 pm

@ #273 Wonk
hey there, wonk – you are a self proclaimed expert, I take it.

wanna take a stab at explaining why we ought to lower tax rates in light of KPMG’s findings outlined in my post at #275

or is name-calling good enough for you. (HINT: it’s not working the way it once did)

#283 Wonk on 08.07.15 at 1:32 pm

#275 gut check on 08.07.15 at 1:00 pm

Um, genius, this is a benchmark measured AGAINST the United States. The lower the CDN/AUS the lower the cost of business appears to be from their measurement. The only thing this measures is that an American company would find it cheaper to operate in Canada/Aus than the US. And currency is a big part of their measurement.

#284 Mark on 08.07.15 at 1:34 pm

“Been wrong about housing going down in Toronto for the last 3 years too. He’s lucky he has no money to lose on his idiot predictions.”

I have plenty of money, and housing has been flat in Toronto for the past few years. The averages only propped up by changes to the sales mix. If you look at the data in that city, this should be quite obvious.

#285 TRT on 08.07.15 at 1:35 pm

Oil in $43 range.

Vote for the party Harper fears most. Not NDP (MSM trying to pump them up) or Greens.

Vote Trudeau.

Hope this makes it past the censors.

#286 nobody on 08.07.15 at 1:36 pm

#276 Mister Obvious on 08.07.15 at 1:04 pm
Seems lots of people get huffy when a change in value of a percentage is expressed as yet another percentage.

While it’s perfectly valid to do that, such derivatives tend to confuse and irritate the innumerate.
_____________________________________

I don’t know about “huffy” or “irritated”, but such use of percentages without clearly stating the context is clearly meant to bolster one’s agenda with the bigger or smaller number knowing very well that much of the public is too ignorant to notice.

#287 TRT on 08.07.15 at 1:36 pm

@Mark:

Haven’t you had enough fun yet? Playing the people with low IQ’s lol.

Enough. Please be gone.

#288 John on 08.07.15 at 1:47 pm

Why do people always gravitate towards socialism when economies are tanking? What we need is the opposite. Do we want Canada to turn into the next France? Where businesses just pick up and leave until we have 60% youth unemployment and old people who just can’t afford to retire. What a mess. Rich people and profitable companies add wealth to a country. Governments are destroyers of wealth since they are so inefficient and create nothing. Also, anyone who has studied economics would know that when you raise taxes, tax revenues increase in the short term and then DECREASE over time. Yes that’s right, increasing taxes decreases tax revenues for the government over time. Too bad our politicians are lawyers and not economists like they shold be. Marxist/socialist policies don’t work. It’s time to end this 100+ year experiment. What we need is less government and more freedom. That being said, I don’t like Harper’s policies on non-economic issues. We need fresh people in that party. Unfortunately we only have 3 other socialist parties to choose from. There is no hope.

#289 gut check on 08.07.15 at 1:55 pm

@ #281 Wonk on 08.07.15 at 1:32 pm
#275 gut check on 08.07.15 at 1:00 pm

Um, genius, this is a benchmark measured AGAINST the United States. The lower the CDN/AUS the lower the cost of business appears to be from their measurement. The only thing this measures is that an American company would find it cheaper to operate in Canada/Aus than the US. And currency is a big part of their measurement.”

why does the CAD/ AUS have anything to do with it?.. are you just trying to confuse the casual observer, was it a typo, or am I missing something?

You are deliberately obfuscating the main point, which is that Canada is the second most competitive place to do business:

“The primary focus of Competitive Alternatives is international business costs. The study measures the combined impact of 26 key cost components that vary by location, over a 10-year analysis horizon starting in 2014. The study compares 7 different business-to-business (B2B) service sector operations and 12 different manufacturing sector operations. The overall cost comparisons for each country and city are based on the average results for these two sectors.”

#290 Practical_Logical on 08.07.15 at 1:55 pm

Hi Garth,

With respect, can you let us know if you are a member of the freemasons, rotary, or lions club?

If you would rather not answer this question, it is truly ok too….

I’m a proud member of the AAL (Amazon Appreciation League). And the LCBO. — Garth

#291 gut check on 08.07.15 at 2:08 pm

@ #286 John

see my post at #275
your premise seems faulty in light of the facts.

#292 Balmuto on 08.07.15 at 2:08 pm

#247 Leo Trollstoy

“Mark has been down on the USD since 2010.

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/boc-buying-usd-964543/

Hasn’t he lost enough already?”

Talk about being married to a trade.

#293 Sheane Wallace on 08.07.15 at 2:10 pm

#275 gut check

Absolutely, Germany and US are the only target countries on my list. Maybe Switzerland as well.

#294 Daisy Mae on 08.07.15 at 2:13 pm

Kathy Michaels @ CAPITAL NEWS, Aug 7th (Kelowna, BC): “Harpers Fair Elections Act of last year has clauses that mean Elections Canada can no longer run ads encouraging Canadians to vote. The agency can discuss the need to vote but only in programs or events directed at non-voters. Pets, children and barnyard animals are okay…..”

AND….”Those heinous adds that make everything look like a high school pissing match don’t help matters. As an associate professor of political science at the University of the Fraser Valley pointed out earlier this week, the best thing to do is completely avoid them. If you hear a “he’s not ready yet” coming out of your TV or radio, turn it off…”

#295 fixie guy on 08.07.15 at 2:14 pm

#286 John

Makes perfect sense, reducing the tax rate to 0% will fill government coffers to overflowing. Who knew Laffer Curve Believers still roamed the earth?

BTW, if you still haven’t noticed Canada has been on the socialist end of the spectrum for many generations you may want to demand a refund on that Econ GED.

#296 Leo Trollstoy on 08.07.15 at 2:18 pm

Been wrong about housing going down in Toronto for the last 3 years too. He’s lucky he has no money to lose on his idiot predictions.

It’s like the chicken and the egg.

Does Mark have no money because he makes poor investing decisions or are his investing decisions poor because he has no money to invest?

Or maybe because he was supposedly, by his own admission, unemployed for the first 7 years at the turn of the century.

Nobody knows.

#297 Moller on 08.07.15 at 2:18 pm

#13 Waterloo Resident on 08.06.15 at 5:56 pm
Commodities like Copper are what economists call the “CANARY IN THE COAL MINE”;

What is copper used for these days? Modern telecommunications technology is moving away from copper networks and towards fiber optics.

#298 Frank on 08.07.15 at 2:22 pm

Tell me how this is a bad idea:

Renting a 2 bed townhouse in my area of Vancouver is about $2500-3500.

I can buy a leasehold property (expiring in 2036) for $450,000. With minimal down payment (why not at these rates) the mortgage looks like ~$2K and another $300 in strata fees. So we’re at or under the rental price for a better location and guaranteed rent for 5 years (possibly higher depending on rates then) meanwhile a growing city like Vancouver is almost sure to have rents rise constantly. The icing on the cake would be if the city renews the lease for another 50-60 years and then suddenly the property is worth a fortune, worst case you walk away (city buys out the building for mid-high 5-digits) having saved on rent.

Is this a smart hedge against rent increases while tying up minimal capital or is it a time bomb waiting to go off?

#299 Sheane Wallace on 08.07.15 at 2:22 pm

Down goes the sucker. Again.

CAD / USD 0.7614 -0.0013 -0.17%
CAD / EUR 0.6941 -0.004 -0.58%
CAD / GBP 0.4914 -0.0001 -0.03%
CAD / CNY 4.7269 -0.0086 -0.18%

Thank you Poloz, Joe Owe and Harper.
Savers, how are you doing, folks? Ready for another 14 % drop in CAD (as per Garth prognosys, I predict 20 % + maybe 30 + further drop).

Just to remind you – keeping any amount in CAD peso instead of converting it to stable currency will cause you further significant losses down

the road. Poloz should not be BOC governor, his goal is to destroy the currency.

#300 Shawn on 08.07.15 at 2:23 pm

Labour Participation Rate – a Dose of Reality

Here’s an interesting statistic from Stats Canada’s release today:

For men aged 25 to 54, employment rose by 19,000 in July. Compared with 12 months earlier, employment among this group was up by 66,000 (+1.1%) and their unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 6.0%. At the same time, their participation rate increased 0.5 percentage points to 91.0%.

****************************************
So the labour participation rate for Canadian men aged 25 to 54 is 91%. This includes those working and those actively looking for work.

So just 9% are not doing either. This could be because of extended illness or incapacity to work. A few very early retirements. some stay-at-home dads. A few idle rich.

But this 91% certainly is more reflective of reality than the overall labour participation rate that at 66% is often thrown up as a scary number.

The 66% figure is pretty meaningless because using a definition fit for the year 1750, it defines everyone over the age of 15 as eligible to work. Apparently no excuse for 90 year olds to be sitting around. Nor for 16 year olds to be wasting time in school. (Remember, anything past grade six is considered “secondary” education, before that is “primary”)

It just illustrates how easy it is to scare monger with true but misleading figures.

Everyone has an agenda. Mine, of course, is to spread only truth and light.

#301 robert james on 08.07.15 at 2:29 pm

If you are PO ed with high real estate prices or anything for that matter in your home town, feel free to Nuke it.. http://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story–57-.htm

#302 Leo Trollstoy on 08.07.15 at 2:38 pm

#282 Mark on 08.07.15 at 1:34 pm

I have plenty of money, and housing has been flat in Toronto for the past few years. The averages only propped up by changes to the sales mix. If you look at the data in that city, this should be quite obvious.

Nobody supports the ‘sales mix average price’ thesis. Even the banks have backed away from this idea. This is why Mark can’t cite any data.

http://www.chpc.biz/uploads/9/7/9/5/9795010/5682777.png

I think Mark should focus on finding a job and saving some money. Especially after his losses in gold/miners/CAD. A good start would be to use Garth’s diversified plan with 20% exposed to the U.S.

He was unemployed for 7 years. In his own words,

I graduated right as the tech bubble was collapsing, in a field of engineering that most of the demand eminated from high tech firms. 7 years later, still haven’t been able to find a job. The market is just that poor in EE/IT in Canada/USA.

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/oversupply-engineers-657368/

#303 Leo Trollstoy on 08.07.15 at 2:43 pm

@Mark

Serious, get some help and turn your life around. It’s not healthy trying to mislead people on public forums and blogs.

I hope you are continuing your treatment for PTSD and for heavens sakes get off the gold/mining/CAD$/deflation/Toronto RE narcotics. They’re causing you to lose a lot of money. Money that you don’t have.

Focus on building your net worth with a simple diversified portfolio. Email Garth for specifics. He will marshal the resources to turn your finances around.

#304 Nora Lenderby on 08.07.15 at 2:43 pm

#294 Moller on 08.07.15 at 2:18 pm
What is copper used for these days? Modern telecommunications technology is moving away from copper networks and towards fiber optics.

Electrical power conduction? Motor windings? Arthritis bracelets?

#305 Henry Miller on 08.07.15 at 2:47 pm

Even with 215,000 jobs created in the U.S. in July-2015 and revisions higher amount of jobs from previous months, U.S. bond yields are dropping like a stone.

U.S. bond yields, 5, 10, 30 year 1.57%, 2.17%, 2.82% and Canadian bond yields, 5, 10, 30 year, 0.63%, 1.42%, 2.09%.

You see, interest rates are still going down not up. A fed rate hike is still worthless.

#306 Nora Lenderby on 08.07.15 at 2:49 pm

#286 John on 08.07.15 at 1:47 pm
Why do people always gravitate towards socialism when economies are tanking?

I know I shouldn’t answer a rhetorical question, but let’s assume that this was a serious question.

If we are going to have austerity (which we probably are) perhaps people would rather it were administered by the Liberals (as previously) or the NDP (coming soon).

Plus tossing out the bums that fiddled while the economy burned.

#307 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 08.07.15 at 2:51 pm

#283 TRT on 08.07.15 at 1:35 pm
Oil in $43 range.
Vote for the party Harper fears most. Not NDP (MSM trying to pump them up) or Greens.

Vote Trudeau.
Hope this makes it past the censors.
_____________________________________________
Obviously you are young and don’t recall he is the son of Fuddle Duddle.

http://www.cbc.ca/archives/entry/1971-trudeaus-fuddle-duddle-incident

#308 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 08.07.15 at 2:54 pm

#270 chapter 9 on 08.07.15 at 12:46 pm

#196 Don

Interesting that you mentioned Cuba. Pierre Trudeau was a huge admirer of Fidel Castro. In fact he was so impressed when Castro sent troops to Angola to support the Marxist-Leninist Popular Liberation Movement he enabled Cuban transports to refuel in Newfoundland.We also provided the Cuban regime with $4 million in grants and $10 million in loans @3% interest while we were paying four times that on our loans. Canadian taxpayers helping fund a communist dictatorship. Cubans were also allowed to set up and operate guerilla warfare and spy schools in Quebec. It is no wonder that Fidel was an honorary pallbearer at Pierre’s funeral, after all, they were buddies.
And now we have Junior.
_____________________________________________
Trudeau was interested in Marxist ideas in the 1940s and in fact his Harvard dissertation was on the topic of Communism and Christianity. Soooooooooooooooo can you say pinko commie.

#309 Steven on 08.07.15 at 2:57 pm

So the whole belief that there will be a major correction especially in Toronto/Vancouver is based on the following factors right?

1. Poor economic outlook due to macro factors such as oil prices
2. Rising rates in US resulting in higher fixed mortgage rates here
3. Low affordability

But what about Chinese economic instability, lower Canadian overnight rates and lower CAD? Chinese economic and market instability causes more capital outflows from China into Canada, especially with a lower CADCNY=X, in turn providing more support for prices.

At the same time, lower prime rates means overextended homeowners can renew maturing fixed rate mortgages into variable rate mortgages, allowing the “bubble” to continue to grow.

Sounds like it’s still a good time to get into an investment property…

#310 gut check on 08.07.15 at 3:01 pm

#290 Sheane Wallace on 08.07.15 at 2:10 pm

Absolutely, Germany and US are the only target countries on my list. Maybe Switzerland as well.

**************************

Target countries? I don’t understand.

#311 Mark on 08.07.15 at 3:03 pm

“Nobody supports the ‘sales mix average price’ thesis. Even the banks have backed away from this idea. This is why Mark can’t cite any data.”

I cited data, including that CIBC research. So give it up already. Housing hasn’t gone up in a while, and even the transactional averages are going down as the mix can no longer change to be favourable to your view.

As for the rest of your ad hominem, I’d simply tell you to grow up, and start speaking some truth for once.

#312 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 08.07.15 at 3:03 pm

#270 chapter 9 on 08.07.15 at 12:46 pm
____________________________________________
The problem is nobody appears to recall who this guy was! We had just moved to the US some years before PET came into power. Even from Socal as a teenager I recall my father reading the LA Times reporting on Trudeau and his adventures with The official bilingualism act and multiculturalism acts. So how have they worked out so far?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eueOLhynoM

#313 gravity on 08.07.15 at 3:04 pm

#286 John on 08.07.15 at 1:47 pm

Why do people always gravitate towards socialism when economies are tanking? What we need is the opposite.

—–

They don’t gravitate towards “socialism” – they gravitate towards the opposite of the current regime, when the economy fails.

The more ideologically driven a government, the more it pushes people to the opposite direction when they start to fail.

Works in both direction, that’s why we had second term, majority Harper government – although the party was nearly wiped out before under Kim Campbell.

For this reason, all ideologically driven governments are garbage on the long run, regardless of their conviction.

They force countries to swing from one set of stupid, dead-end extreme measures to an other, in the name of “fixing what was screwed up” by “the other guys”.

Good governments are ideologically blind, economically, socially pragmatic.

When was the last time Canada had one?

#314 Karma on 08.07.15 at 3:06 pm

Blog dawgs. Check out this website for a survey on what platforms you prefer among the parties.

http://canada.isidewith.com

#315 Mister Obvious on 08.07.15 at 3:07 pm

#284 nobody

“…such use of percentages without clearly stating the context is clearly meant to bolster one’s agenda with the bigger or smaller number knowing very well that much of the public is too ignorant to notice.”
——————————-

I agree with your supposition that much of the public is too ignorant (actually, ‘too innumerate’) to notice.

If that is the case then “clearly stating the context” will be of no value since the fundamental problem is itself an inability to comprehend context.

It speaks to a bigger problem wherein the general populace is woefully deficient in matters of scale and orders of magnitude.

The average person in the street tends to get their ‘millions’ and ‘billions’ mixed up. We can’t really expect much from them.

#316 Mark on 08.07.15 at 3:07 pm

You see, interest rates are still going down not up. A fed rate hike is still worthless.

Exactly. If the Fed hikes, they’re just moving towards explicit yield curve inversion. Which is an extremely reliable predictor of recession (and hence, the need to lower rates typically).

#317 historical context on 08.07.15 at 3:12 pm

#306 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol

Trudeau was interested in Marxist ideas in the 1940s.

—-

In the 1940’s everybody in politics was “interested” in Marxism one way or an other, as at that time it was an emerging political philosophy and after WWII, with the creation of the “Eastern block”, a new political, economical, military reality.

#318 OXI in GREECE !! on 08.07.15 at 3:12 pm

YAY !!

More McJobs in ‘Murica’ with young’ins serving up Monsanto burgers to obese people. Time to jack up rates.

#319 Mark on 08.07.15 at 3:13 pm

“Chinese economic and market instability causes more capital outflows from China into Canada, especially with a lower CADCNY=X, in turn providing more support for prices.”

“capital outflows from China into Canada” have been scant over the past number of years, so why would such occur now? And why would it go into the most overpriced asset class in the Canadian marketplace, residential housing? After all, China’s rich didn’t get to be rich by buying into assets at bubble valuations, now did they?

If anything, a deterioration of the situation in China may drive a few Chinese-Canadians to liquidate their Canadian RE to preserve their Chinese investments. However, Canadians in this situation make up such a small proportion of the RE market that any selling pressure is a mere drop in the bucket compared to the overall domestic RE market which is falling on account of demand and credit exhaustion.

#320 Timber on 08.07.15 at 3:13 pm

Why can’t AB move more towards progressive corporate taxation? When times are good tax more, when times suck then tax less?

#321 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 08.07.15 at 3:14 pm

#302 Nora Lenderby on 08.07.15 at 2:43 pm

#294 Moller on 08.07.15 at 2:18 pm
What is copper used for these days? Modern telecommunications technology is moving away from copper networks and towards fiber optics.

Electrical power conduction? Motor windings? Arthritis bracelets?
_____________________________________________
High thermal conductivity devices, car radiators, plumbing, shipbuilding, desalination plants. Don’t forget a very useful alloy of copper and zinc is brass. Copper beryllium is also used in molds.

#322 OttawaMike on 08.07.15 at 3:15 pm

#286 John on 08.07.15 at 1:47 pm
Why do people always gravitate towards socialism when economies are tanking?
—————————————————–
Probably the best example of that is Germany’s embrace of communism during the depression and through WW2. That mustacheod fellow and his ultra left communist party who’s name escapes me now.

#323 chapter 9 on 08.07.15 at 3:16 pm

Well, some numbers for Alberta, year to date 2014-2015

Total value MLS listings home sales down, minus 15.1%
Total car sales down, minus13.7%
Total manufacturing sales down, minus11.6%
Total housing starts down, minus24.2%
Total building permits down, minus 8.2%
Total job vacancies down, minus 35%

And it is only August!!

#306 Holy Crap Where Is The Tylenol
As I said in earlier posts we are still paying to-day for his years in office. Enjoy your day!

#324 lee on 08.07.15 at 3:24 pm

#300 Leo,

It’s all about sales price manipulation. There are two threads of sales in Toronto that account I believe for about 75% of all average increases in price (effectively taking the yearly average increase from 2.5% to about 10-11%). One is rebuilds and the other is major renos. To a lesser extent, sales over 2M also have a huge impact.

I think rebuilds are about 5% of the SFH resale inventory in Toronto. This was not true in the 90s. That means for every twenty houses that go up 3%, one goes up 150 to 200%. That completely tilts the numbers. An average 3% increase turns into at least a 10% average increase. You still have to pay the increase to buy in, but people should stop believing if they buy a house to day it will be worth 10% more tomorrow or 2.5 times more in ten years. Remove the rebuilds (and to a lesser extent the major renos) and buying a SFH in Toronto will get you a 2-3% increase a year. Still good. Healthy some would say.

Major renos work the same smoke and mirrors. But they do it in two ways. Major renos also set the bar higher for comparable sized properties in the area. A major reno will sell for substantially more than comparables, but then the comparables will be sold later using the reno as a comparable. The non-reno has magically gone up in value 20-50% even though nothing has changed, except the house down the street, which is a superior comparable, has increased in price. It happens all over. You should kiss the feet of the guys who come into town and start knocking down houses or gutting places. You’ll see an immediate increase in the value of your property as a result. The only suckers at these inflated prices are the buyers.

#325 pwn3d on 08.07.15 at 3:26 pm

#282 Mark on 08.07.15 at 1:34 pm

I have plenty of money, and housing has been flat in Toronto for the past few years. The averages only propped up by changes to the sales mix. If you look at the data in that city, this should be quite obvious.
————–
Oh, there is one thing that’s quite obvious… but not what you think it is

#326 pwn3d on 08.07.15 at 3:30 pm

#309 Mark on 08.07.15 at 3:03 pm

I cited data, including that CIBC research.
————-
That was the funny part because the one time you actually cited data was the CIBC research and it clearly showed Toronto real estate going up across all price ranges.

#327 Mister Obvious on 08.07.15 at 3:32 pm

#311 gravity

Excellent comment. I couldn’t have said it better myself. I’d never thought of it quite that way before. Thanks.

#328 Mark on 08.07.15 at 3:36 pm

“That was the funny part because the one time you actually cited data was the CIBC research and it clearly showed Toronto real estate going up across all price ranges.”

Nope. It showed stagnation except in the very high end. Hence, a significant change to the sales mix was quite obvious from such.

Why did this happen? The young were simply priced out of the market, and CMHC subprime credit availability tightened. The higher end thus became a more prominent part of the market simply as the lower end dropped in prominence.

Consumers, whose consumption is highly linked to asset prices and the availability of credit, have been reacting accordingly. With retail sales softening. And consumer demand so weak in the Canadian economy that a 25% currency depreciation has had practically no impact on consumer prices in a nation that imports a good chunk of its consumer goods.

#329 LP on 08.07.15 at 3:41 pm

#320 OttawaMike on 08.07.15 at 3:15 pm

I think you have mistaken communism for fascism. Or else you’ve confused Russia with Germany.

#330 Sheane Wallace on 08.07.15 at 3:41 pm

#308 gut check

Target countries to invest in (already done) and live in (in process of moving).

#331 Smoking Man on 08.07.15 at 3:46 pm

I’m a proud member of the AAL (Amazon Appreciation League). And the LCBO. — Garth
……..

My kid and his partners have a perfect app for you garth.

Available soon at the apple store…

http://www.liqboapp.com/

#332 waiting on the westcoast on 08.07.15 at 3:51 pm

#261 gut check on 08.07.15 at 12:10 pm
“Booming US economy has much HIGHER corporate tax rate than flatlining, recessionary Canadian economy. Economic Basketcase Europe has a LOWER corporate tax rate than Canada.
hmmmm… could it be that corporate tax rates are NOT indicative of a country’s well being”?

While large corps like Apple, etc are c-corps and pay those levels of taxes (hence why many of them have created off shore entities in Ireland, etc.), the vast majority of small businesses use llc’s or s-corps which are far more tax friendly since they are taxed at personal rates. In the US, you would need to earn over 200k before paying 50% rates which we got personally around 70k in Canada.

#333 Steerage on 08.07.15 at 3:53 pm

Hipster communes…

“Another challenge is that mansion owners aren’t usually big participants in the sharing economy. They tend to value privacy. ”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/groups-of-friends-are-renting-vacant-mansions-invancouver/article25859467/

#334 Mark on 08.07.15 at 3:55 pm

“You should kiss the feet of the guys who come into town and start knocking down houses or gutting places. You’ll see an immediate increase in the value of your property as a result. The only suckers at these inflated prices are the buyers.”

That’s not generally how its been playing out though. The unrenovated house is still worth the same as it was before. The renovated house, which has to be sold by the flippers who put up the money to renovate it, hence becomes part of the sales mix, and enters at a fairly high price on account of being modernized and presumably fitted with all the latest modern amenities.

Now some Realtor, Teranet, or some CMHC computer program might use that specific property to generalize a price increase upon the rest of the neighbourhood (even though the price increase was entirely due to the investment, not the market). But the houses which have been held over the medium-long term aren’t generally transacted in very often. When they are ultimately transacted, often in a fairly run-down state, they usually don’t sell for much relative to the renos/new builds next door. As inheritances, often the transactional price isn’t even publicly reported. With few transactions, these properties make up very little of the sales mix, yet they actually make up the majority of properties in Canada.

I would sort of liken the situation to that of a governing party in the House of Commons. Even though caucus has 150+ members, only around a dozen or two of those individuals really are prominent in the national media. The government’s public reputation thus turns on the public performance of those dozen members, their actions, and their statements. The other 140+ government members thus work in relative media obscurity. This is much like the housing market — the high flying stuff gets all the attention, but in reality, the housing market is much larger than just what is transacted in a given year, and that mix of transactions is subject to change, just as government can shuffle members in and out of prominence through Cabinet appointments.

#335 gut check on 08.07.15 at 4:09 pm

#328 Sheane Wallace on 08.07.15 at 3:41 pm
#308 gut check

Target countries to invest in (already done) and live in (in process of moving).
——————————————————-
Oooh, okay. got it. :)
as someone who is hoping to leave Canada myself, I hope you’ll be able to give us a flavour of your experience when you do make the move!

#336 John on 08.07.15 at 4:10 pm

#293 fixie guy

Obviously you need some level of taxation. I admit that statement was a bit too general. But once you raise taxes too high, businesses shut down and leave the country. Wealthy people who would normally invest and create new businesses also leave the country or invset their money somewhere else. Entrepreneurs are less motivated. The economy is global and people move around. Governments notoriously think their actions are local and don’t see the big picture. Less business activity means less people working. Unemployed people not only don’t pay any tax, but they also collect government money. A double whammy. It’s pretty basic economic theory.

#337 John on 08.07.15 at 4:15 pm

#327 LP
the Nazi party literally translates into the National Socialist Party. There’s really not a lot of difference between fascism and communism. In both cases, the government takes total control over everything.

#338 Leo Trollstoy on 08.07.15 at 4:22 pm

#326 Mark on 08.07.15 at 3:36 pm

It showed stagnation except in the very high end. Hence, a significant change to the sales mix was quite obvious from such.

Nope. It showed prices have been increasing year over year and that sales mix didn’t have an impact.

Seriously, stop burning your money. Haven’t you lost enough on your gold/miners/CAD$ bets yet?

Get help.

Please.

#339 Leo Trollstoy on 08.07.15 at 4:25 pm

#290 Balmuto on 08.07.15 at 2:08 pm

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/boc-buying-usd-964543/

Talk about being married to a trade.

No kidding.

Has Mark lost more money betting on gold or the CAD$?

It’s close.

#340 saskatoon on 08.07.15 at 4:51 pm

#311 gravity

nope.

this is not true.

try again.

#341 Mark on 08.07.15 at 4:54 pm

“Nope. It showed prices have been increasing year over year and that sales mix didn’t have an impact.”

No, it showed that the sales mix had changed significantly. But nice try at historical revisionism. In your lame attempts to troll me, you were even denying that there was even a sales mix — how very drole you are (not really!).

Has Mark lost more money betting on gold or the CAD$?

The winners in my portfolio, particularly Valeant, the Canadian banks, etc. have more than eclipsed losses on my relatively tiny net positions in gold or CAD/USD$.

I’m up 500% since the 2009 lows. So I must be doing something right. Notwithstanding all the random nonsense you spew here.

#342 Victoria Real Estate Update on 08.07.15 at 5:11 pm

# 332 Mark

“The renovated house, which has to be sold by the flippers who put up the money to renovate it, hence becomes part of the sales mix, and enters at a fairly high price on account of being modernized and presumably fitted with all the latest modern amenities.”

In Victoria, the increase in the number of sales in the more expensive areas has outdone the increase in sales in less expensive areas. The average and median price data has been skewed higher as a result, giving a false impression.

As Garth has pointed out, move-up buyers have been increasingly represented in Canada lately. Many say that these move-up buyers are buying extensively renovated houses in expensive areas as a result of record low mortgage rates. It isn’t difficult to imagine how that would skew the average and median price data higher.

When there is no skewing, average and median price data can be used to gauge increases or decreases in the value of individual properties.

Real estate boards and bankers don’t talk about price skewing because skewing almost always makes average and median price data look stronger and realtors and bankers have a vested interest in keeping house prices high.

#343 BigBlockPower on 08.07.15 at 6:41 pm

#275

Grow up.

There are 140 other countries in the world.

You are just comparing all the horses at the glue factory.

Taxes and labour are way in cheaper on the African continent, the south American continent, the middle east and certainly Eurasia – as in the rest of the world, bozo.

The most expensive places to drill and produce a well are the following: Norway, Sweden, the rest of the E.U.,
Canada, Australia and the U.S..

See the correlation? I do as everyone else does too…. too much tax.

The comments section is starting to attract CBC posters now……

lol

#344 gut check on 08.07.15 at 8:43 pm

@ #341 BigBlockPower on 08.07.15 at 6:41 pm

Insult me and you lose me. I don’t deign to reply to people who can’t remain civil. It’s a waste of my precious time.

I will say for the record that the post at #275 is what it is – KPMG’s findings on business affordability in select countries. Canada is second most affordable among them.

#345 family beagle on 08.08.15 at 4:44 am

#304 Nora Lenderby on 08.07.15 at 2:43 pm
#294 Moller on 08.07.15 at 2:18 pm
What is copper used for these days? Modern telecommunications technology is moving away from copper networks and towards fiber optics.

Electrical power conduction? Motor windings? Arthritis bracelets?

…..

Copper is combined with zinc to make the alloy brass, which is used to make bullets (ammunition casing). Copper is also used instead of lead shot. People are buying bullets like crazy. Lots of bullets. More ammo than most hip, modern, metrosexuals would ever imagine. Millions and millions of rounds. Hundreds of millions of rounds. Gazillions of bullets.
http://www.ammoland.com/2014/03/ammunition-shortages-and-22-production/#axzz3iD8RTUxh

Got yours?

#346 BlackDog on 08.08.15 at 10:47 am

ooops…. Please delete prior comment as was added to the wrong post.

#347 Greg on 08.09.15 at 11:58 am

Hi # 290 Practical_Logical,

Some other private groups I’ve heard of, that sound much ‘less benign’ than the rotary or lions club that come to mind: Bilderberg, Skull and Bones, CFR, N.W.O. For another opinion-view point,
“George Carlin – It’s a big club and you ain’t in it.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5dBZDSSky0

BTW, I believe G’s hands are clean.

On the lighter side, a link to a fun group worth staying in contact with, IMO.
Just add your name. You may know someone to give a certificate of membership too. You can add your own activities also, like motor cycle riding, and a bit of AAL and LCBO if you wish.
http://www.itstime.com/download/HappyChildhood.pdf

#348 Jack on 08.10.15 at 3:05 pm

Canadian Natural Resources statement re taxes was a touch misleading. The major tax related loss they point was caused by a reductio the value of their deferred tax assets – the impact of the 2% increase in corp income tax as applied to the DTA, which represent the value of unpaid tax due to the difference between taxable income and financial statement income (itself the result of accelerated depreciation allowed for income tax reporting vs depreciating the same assets over the useful economic life in their financial statements).

In summary – their tax loss represents the one-time impact of the Alberta corp income tax increase expected tax recoveries.