The mushy middle

KITTENS modified

“I know you have lots of great advice for the Millennials but wondering what you have to say to us Gen X’ers who were late bloomers,” Paul writes me. “I’m 40, am topped out at my job as a Registered Nurse, my 5 year mortgage term is up and I am relocating to Calgary so it is potentially a clean break. I’m looking to buy again but not bound to the idea. What generates stress for me is adding a 25 year mortgage at any point beyond now just makes me OLD when it’s paid off.”

Not only that, Paul, but Calgary’s a time bomb. July sales were down again, this time 14%. And the tsunami of terminations is only beginning, now that Iran is back and oil’s headed for forty bucks. But I think you have bigger stuff to worry about.

“All I have in the bank is about $20K in RRSPs that I started with a former employer and the rest is tied up in my current home. Like you, Garth, I’m old, stubborn and hate the idea of going back to square one and having to rent a house that has been cheaply renovated with the laminate floors, rectangular multi-coloured tile backsplash and $99 pedestal bathroom sink. Have I mentioned my mid-life crisis? Any advice is always appreciated!”

Sure. It’s easy. Dump the Halifax house, move, rent and invest. Max your TFSA and put the rest in an ETF-laden balanced non-registered account with lots more non-Canadian assets than maple. If you take up nursing in Cowtown, concentrate on these accounts instead of putting more into an RRSP, since you’ll be working on a defined-benefit pension. If your specialty is psych medicine and the treatment of depression (and delusional socialism), there’s a great future ahead in Alberta.

But Paul’s right. People in theirs forties today seem to be at special risk. Unlike a lot of jaded, iconoclastic Millennials, these Gen Xers swallowed the house-is-good, only-need-one-asset strategy their Boomer parents laid on them. Like Paul, so many have real estate and nothing else. Except debt. And hopefully a job that lasts. Plus very, very expensive kids. And now they’re middle-aged. Bummer.

My old pal Benny Tal, a big-time economist at CIBC, has done some interesting work in this area. “While many Canadians, particularly those now close to 65, are on a path to the retirement of their dreams, the data show that millions of others are headed for a steep decline in living standards in the decades ahead, particularly those who are currently younger and who are in middle income brackets,” he wrote in a report on the dreaded R-thing. (Retirement.)

Tal says almost six million Canadians will experience at least a 20% drop in their living standards once they stop working. Those now in their thirties – prime house-buying and child-popping years – are being set up for an even bigger surprise. Says Benny: “On average, the replacement rate of those born in the 1980s, who will retire towards the middle of this century, will be only 0.7, implying a 30-per-cent drop in their standard of living.”

How could this be?

Simple. Like Paul, many have concentrated on buying a home and trashing the mortgage, instead of accumulating financial assets. That made sense in the olden days when loans were 8% or 9%, and financial stuff was barely keeping up. But those borrowings have been in the 3% range now for years, while a balanced portfolio has averaged almost 8% over the past half-decade (and 7.4% over ten years). So obviously it’s wiser to just service the mortgage debt, let your house appreciate in value (depending on location) and shovel extra cash flow into liquid assets. Better yet, crystallize your tax-free real estate gain and avoid the coming storm

Paul scares me. A house and just twenty grand saved at age 40 – all of it in a taxable account. Ouch. It’s this kind of myopia, ignorance and malinvestment that turns people into Dippers. They start thinking the ‘rich’ and corporations should be paying more tax, that a $15 minimum wage is reasonable or the state should be paying to look after their kids. It’s the inevitable result of that one-asset strategy where folks have been sucked into home ownership at punishing levels, and wake up half-way point through their lives to realize they may be blowing it.

And that’s exactly the case.

PRICES

Whatever happens on the 19th of October, we will still have an oil collapse, a weak dollar, more job stress and a moribund economy. The US will still be raising rates, bond yields and mortgages will follow. House prices have only one direction in which to move, and yet most people are in denial. In the past ten years Toronto house values have risen 420% while incomes have gained 133%. How can your mom not see what’s coming?

There’s only one reason houses can inflate so dramatically while incomes do not – cheap money. And that will come to an end. You can get ready now, or panic later. Alternatively, you can do nothing, expecting the government will rescue you.

Good luck with that.

175 comments ↓

#1 bb on 08.02.15 at 3:45 pm

If the house was bought at 150k and now at 600k then its logical to sell and move elsewhere. 450k in gains isn’t bad for a mid aged RN. Enough to retire on.

#2 Godth on 08.02.15 at 3:52 pm

Well gee, what does the science say?
https://collapseofindustrialcivilization.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/pnas-2015-schramski-1508353112.pdf

Incomes stagnant or shrinking for decades, debt rising for decades and the low hanging resources have been digested. Add to that urban/suburban patterns that are completely useless without lotsa fossil fuels – 00ps, sorry kiddies.

#3 Garth's #1 Fan on 08.02.15 at 3:53 pm

All this anti-NDP, anti-socialism, “dipper” talk is a bit weird. You’re getting nassssty, Garth. Hot dayam, I almost thought you were working for Harper again reading today’s post. What, are you in election mode now?

Any way this goes you are going to be acting all shocked and surprised for years to come. “Why, I NEVER!”

If the Dippers win, prepare for socialism. Pucker up, Garth. You self-identify with the billionaire class due to your 5 mil liquid or whatever ya got, so I expect much anguish and crying over MONEY instead of enjoying your remaining years, of which let’s be honest (not offensive, just honest), you don’t have many left. Why are you so concerned whether you get taxed 19% or 20% anyway? You planning to leave your fortune to your dog, or what?

If your old pals win again, and “hold the course”, you’re about to cry and complain about the economy more than ever before, always blaming people for not being Vulcan logic-machines and never once considering that maybe there’s something wrong with the government. Oh well, the pendulum swings back, and the more it goes to the right the harder it will swing on the way back.

And hey Garth, if you think 15 an hour is not “reasonable”, pray tell. How much do you make? Oh, you would never work for even 30 an hour? Why, Garth? Do you think you’re somehow better than others? Or do you think your education “entitles” you to this level of pay? Because let me tell you, there are better educated young Canadians who are lucky to get a job at Starbucks.

You’re getting really nasty Garth… and after all that puppy talk the other day. Just when I thought the old man found his peace. Was looking forward to a grandfatherly Garth giving gentle advice instead of spitting venom on the young.

Oh well.

What I toss at you (for free) is knowledge, based on experience. You cannot build yourself up by tearing others down. Oh well. — Garth

#4 Rob on 08.02.15 at 3:59 pm

“Whatever happens on the 19th of October”

Pretty easy to predict:
either a Con majority (they got more attack ad $)
or a “fill in the blanks” party minority gov’t,
along with a big election bill
and no real improvements for the country in sight.
Pretty depressing, eh?

#5 Smaertalox on 08.02.15 at 4:05 pm

Garth, I wonder, now that the writ is dropped, whether you will be dissecting the parties’ economic platforms during the campaign. It might be too much to ask you to make an endorsement, but I have a feeling that you won’t be supporting Harper and his gang.

#6 freddy feldspar on 08.02.15 at 4:06 pm

You are the best and most understandable middle class estate planner I’ve ever encountered and easily the unluckiest and worst predictor of interest rates, even to a point of denial.
Fortunately, the quality of the former virtue is not at all compromised by the latter’s error. I’ve read you for 4 years and it’s been a glorious blast.

#7 Deb on 08.02.15 at 4:09 pm

There is plenty of hope for Paul. The key is to focus on the post-40 picture that he wants to develop. First, buying in Calgary now is fraught with an incredible amount of risk. The tide has turned, and if you buy now, you will likely see much of your equity evaporate into the ether before the next snowfall. Is renting for a spell really such an abhorrent idea? If you do, you will be able to buy what you want later, at a much better price.
Secondly, I don’t disagree to what Garth suggested about focusing on building liquid assets. However, with the loonie flying low at 76 cents U.S., I would strongly suggest looking at hedged vs. non-hedged stragegies with respect to U.S. and global investments.

#8 pinstripe on 08.02.15 at 4:12 pm

a bunch of the geezers took in the sunday brunch today and the only talk was about the fed election.

Harpo has done a good job in destroying Canada and now he pulls an early expensive campaign, just like the apprentice did in alberta. the consensus at the brunch is that harpo deserves to win the election so that he can be stuck with his own crap.

harpo promises a lot but will deliver nothing.

anyone with debt will be screwed regardless how they juggle their numbers.

why are so many geezers chewing gaviscon during the brunch?

#9 80 Days to an NDP Government! on 08.02.15 at 4:13 pm

Only the conservatives are “delusional” Garth – witness Harper’s incredibly dumb spin today on how the election costs are borne “by the parties, not the taxpayers…”

Huh? How stupid does he think we all are?

Mulcair, on the other hand, rightly pointed out just how bad the Harper economic record has really been.

The upcoming Mulcair victory will be a part of giving this country a long overdue, bullshit-destroying ideological enema.

As a citizen and taxpayer, I for one, cannot wait to bend over, and I know you, too, will be happy to drop your drawers, Garth.

It will be good for all of us. A real cleansing :)

#10 Rexx Rock on 08.02.15 at 4:18 pm

What scares me is the BOC is going to push the envelope to devalue the CAD.Inflation will kill consumer demand an lower our standard of living.I think a 59 cent dollar will break the Canadian sheeple mentality.Buy USD.

#11 Nosty, etc. on 08.02.15 at 4:23 pm

#2 Godth — Great post, esp. link.

#3 Garth’s #1 Fan — “If the Dippers win, prepare for socialism.” Prepare for an exodus of the smart, brainy ones, not seen since the 1950s when the Avro Arrow was scrapped. There will be plenty of TFW’s to step in, ‘tho.
*
#204 MF — Everything alright in the critic’s section?

#217 Smoking Man — “Samson option will end us all.” — No sweat. At some point, we shed these sacks of clothes, like a snake sheds its skin and move back into the next worlds where we all originated. That’s where the fun is! You are correct, ‘tho — The times they are a’changin’.

#221 Godth, #222 the Jaguar and #228 Blacksheep — Anytime!

#12 Garth's #1 Fan on 08.02.15 at 4:23 pm

> What I toss at you (for free) is knowledge, based on experience. You cannot build yourself up by tearing others down. Oh well. — Garth

And I appreciate it very much. You’ve changed my life and the way I think about what it means to be a responsible adult with my money. You’ve done a ton of good, and I’m grateful for that. Sometimes I come to this blog just to remind myself of the importance of preparing for job loss, illness, retirement, etc and not make some expenditure that got my heart pumping earlier in the day. Ditto for when the house lust washes over me.

But sometimes you get SO political, and preachy… It’s fine to be preachy on personal finance, where you are an expert, but political stuff is more of an art than a science. And it’s so easy to offend people, especially when you have a sense of humour like you.

Calling a mainstream political party’s guiding philosophy a mental illness is a bit much. And you have to admit that you are very very good at one thing (which happens to be your profession) BUT not necessarily as good at other things. You are one of the top authorities anywhere on what to do with our money to ensure we don’t eat kitty kibbles when we’re old, but that doesn’t qualify you to judge whether a particular minimum wage for example is social optima or not. That’s someone else’s profession, and even there the science isn’t settled.

Like many others I enjoy your social/political/whatever commentary, and I like that there is wide-ranging discussion here. It’s perfectly cool to have an opinion and joke about it all you want, just please don’t be such a douche about it.

Perfectly correct. I shall strive to be less like young people who know everything. — Garth

#13 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 08.02.15 at 4:25 pm

#3 Garth’s #1 Fan

Dear Mr. #1 Fan,

Good old fashioned 1930s Socialist-inspired class warfare is what the NDP and Liberals are all about in this federal election campaign. It is shallow, meaningless and won’t help the shrivelling middle class to “survive” what lies ahead, some world-class economic downturns and God-knows what else.

Sincerely,

VTP

Garth is right in his analysis and so is James Howard Kunstler an American Democratic Party, now-former stalwart, who’s column last week had this to say about two famous American Lefties, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders:

“…Readers are surely also chafing to insert that there is Bernie Sanders, climbing in the opinion polls, disdaining Wall Street money, denouncing the current disposition of things with the old union hall surliness we’ve grown to know and love. I’m grateful that Bernie is in the race, that he’s framing an argument against Ms. It’s My Turn. I just don’t happen to think that Bernie gets what the country — indeed what all of techno-industrial society — is really up against, namely a long emergency of economic contraction and collapse.

These circumstances require a very different agenda than just an I Dreamed I Saw Joe Hill redistributionist scheme. Lively as Bernie is, I don’t think he offers much beyond that, as if cadging a little more tax money out of WalMart, General Mills, and Exxon-Mobil will fix what is ailing this sad-ass polity. The heart of the matter is that our way of life has shot its wad and now we have to live very differently. Almost nobody wants to even try to think about this.”

What happens in the US eventually happens here, and most other places in its empire and peripheries.

Our election campaign, leading up to the selection of our next Parliament and government is critical in the extreme.

For Mulcair and Trudeau to promise what Socialists were doing going back to the Dirty Thirties shows the paucity of original thought from these two earnest gentlemen and their teams of candidates.

The Tories, under Harper, have been in power for the last decade and they have seen what it’s like “out there” in the real world.

Mulcair and Trudeau have lots of ideas based on various intellectual pinings and pursuits. But none of it holds water. Harper & Co. were saddled with making actual decisions, right or wrong because THEY HAD TO AND THEY DID.

The two Opposition party leaders lack in just about everything imaginable in their quest for the PMO.

This will be one doozy of a campaign and I predict a Harper majority government will emerge after the October 19th vote.

#14 North Burnaby on 08.02.15 at 4:27 pm

South Burnaby is definitely where all the crime actions are taking place

#15 BS on 08.02.15 at 4:35 pm

Regardless of how you feel about Harper and his ability to govern he is a political genius. In a few short months he has turned Justin Trudeau from a favourite to a long shot. Justin kicks off his campaign today with his focus on battling the NDP. Maybe he is just hoping to be leader of the opposition now? In the past Liberals didn’t even bother with the NDP. The “he is just not ready” campaign has worked so well Harper might have to turn his focus to Mulcair soon and forget about Justin as a credible challenger. Again something we have not seen in the past. This is going to be fun to watch. Will Justin be another Ignatieff or Dion? It is looking that way.

Federal Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau kicked off his party’s federal election campaign Sunday, casting the Liberals as wiser agents of change than the NDP because of their economic strategy.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/trudeau-says-liberals-a-better-economic-alternative-to-harper-than-the-ndp/article25813492/

#16 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.02.15 at 4:37 pm

@#12 #1 Fan

Last time I checked.
It was still Garth’s blog. Get over it or move along….

@#14 North Burnaby

Inane blithering from the Kensington strip mall Starbucks crowd I see. Fumes from the Chevron refinery permanently affected your deductive reasoning has it?

#17 Victoria Real Estate Update on 08.02.15 at 4:40 pm

Mortgage fraud has helped push Canadian house prices deeper into bubble territory. So far only the tip of the iceberg has been revealed as to the extent of this illegal activity.

Mortgage fraud in the US contributed significantly to bubble conditions there that ended in a spectacular crash.

West coast cities in the US were well represented at the top of the biggest price losers list as the 2006 US housing bubble deflated. A move to dramatically slash interest rates from near normal to emergency levels limited the depth of the US price plunge. That move won’t be an option in Canada as the Canadian bubble deflates.

Canada’s bubble will deflate in an environment of rising rates. Canadian 5-year fixed mortgage rates will begin moving higher this fall, following fixed rates in the US.

House prices fall as rates rise.

A significant chunk of fraudulent property sales transactions have taken place in Canada. As was the case in the US, this will significantly increase the depth and severity of Canada’s future price correction.

Those buyers who qualified for more expensive homes by illegally overstating their incomes (fraud) will be among those most likely to default on their mortgages as prices correct in Canada. This group will significantly increase the total number of defaults. The more defaults, the bigger the price correction.

House prices wouldn’t be as high as they are in Canada if it weren’t for mortgage fraud. The same thing could have been said about the US housing market in 2006.

#18 Garth's #1 Fan on 08.02.15 at 4:43 pm

> This will be one doozy of a campaign and I predict a Harper majority government will emerge after the October 19th vote.

I agree it will be a doozy but I’m not so sure about a Con majority. I am hoping for one, just so all the economic chickens that have come to roost get placed properly at his door. If the Cons form the next government, they are done in Canadian politics for at least a generation. I’d rather have that instead of a minority Liberal or NDP government where everyone plays hot potato with blame and no coherent set of policies get to happen. As bad as Harper’s policies are, they are coherent and I say we continue them for a while longer just so we don’t have any question as to where such policies lead. Evidently there are some people unconvinced. I wish this election was NEXT October.

> Harper & Co. were saddled with making actual decisions, right or wrong because THEY HAD TO AND THEY DID.

That’s another point where I have to disagree. I don’t think for one minute that Harper “did what he had to do” and struggled with making a choice. I think Harper had the whole world figured out in his 20s, in a typical youngster angst reactionary way, and every decision he’s ever made has been made long long ago. Now it’s just implementation, not decision making.

> For Mulcair and Trudeau to promise what Socialists were doing going back to the Dirty Thirties

Funny you should say that. It might interest you to know that the dirty thirties ended with a new “Social Contract” which borrowed many things from socialism, including social security, medicare, and massive infrastructure spending which built the infrastructure that the United States relies on to this very day.

> The heart of the matter is that our way of life has shot its wad and now we have to live very differently.

Haha, no. Productivity on average is more than triple what it was in the 70s, there is more wealth than ever before, by FAR. But it’s also more unequally distributed than ever before. Both extremes of poverty AND wealth are more and more common. The idea that Joe Lunchbucket should tighten up his belt because this is just the way things are now, no real explanation other than something about the boomer way of life being gone like a fart in the wind.

If we have to tighten our belt, we best turn to those that own multiple airplanes and yachts and say “sure, but you first!”.

> redistributionist scheme

You’re saying redistribution like it’s a dirty word. How old are you? Were you a young impressionable young buck when McCarthy was brainwashing the western world with his “better dead than red” propaganda? Because let me tell you, every year old people die and more young people come of age, and you’d be surprised at the difference in attitudes.

#19 Godth on 08.02.15 at 4:50 pm

#13 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 08.02.15 at 4:25 pm

Funny, I understand why the neo-conservative, neo-liberals aren’t just winning the class warfare – they’re crushing it. You can’t fight what you refuse to acknowledge, class warfare never stopped, the middle is just being wiped away by the winners. Roll over, good doggie.

#20 saskatoon on 08.02.15 at 5:05 pm

#3 Garth’s #1 Fan

another jealous, deluded, psychologically broken commie.

individually weak themselves…they CAN’T WAIT to substitute state violence to make up for their own shortcomings…to make other (often stronger and smarter) people PAY.

these are the most dangerous people.

#21 Godth on 08.02.15 at 5:06 pm

#18 Garth’s #1 Fan on 08.02.15 at 4:43 pm
Potemkin Party
http://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/potemkin-party/

Here he is giving the best TED talk, funny (he was never invited back).
https://www.ted.com/talks/james_howard_kunstler_dissects_suburbia?language=en

#22 BS on 08.02.15 at 5:06 pm

Calling a mainstream political party’s guiding philosophy a mental illness is a bit much.

That is putting it nicely. In fact it is not a mental illness which would be no fault of the NDP. It is a dishonest way of exploiting tax paying Canadians for personal gain and to pay off the unions who fund their campaigns. They trick naive Canadians into thinking they will get more. They won’t.

A perfect example is Glen Clark former NDP premier of BC. After he handed out record money and contracts to unions as premier of BC he now runs Jimmy Pattison’s organization and is anti-union. I saw him not long ago explain unions are no longer viable in a global economy. A 180 degree turn in union philosophy when he actually has to run a business. In other words he actually understands economics but when he was part of the NDP he lied and did things that in the end hurt the economy all for political ideology. Calling it a mental illness is putting it nicely. Note his record as a NDP premier was pathetic and he goes down as one of the worst premiers in BC history but his record as a free enterprise business leader is outstanding. So there is hope for NDPers they just need to get away from the NPD failed ideology.

#23 lee on 08.02.15 at 5:12 pm

Did you forget decimals? Houses up 420 percent and incomes 133 percent in ten years?

#24 Retired Boomer - WI on 08.02.15 at 5:13 pm

What you toss at us (for free) has been quite helpful for this not so young guy.

As we age, we tend to get more “conservative” in our political views. Perhaps that is due to the curtailment of our mental and physical prowess with advancing years.
Others may disagree, but who gives a whit for their opinion anyway.

“knew I knew it all at 15, not to sureI knew it ‘all’ at 25, dam sure I knew my name at 35, know I l know less than I thought I knew at 45, still can’t believe I thought ‘that way’ at 55,….finally can’t remember what I know now.”

The theory of knowledge development and impairment through the years.

Do wise people-ever-vote conservative?? really? -sigh-

#25 jess on 08.02.15 at 5:22 pm

cheap money …and data fraud

GM Financial says information about approximately 2,200 of its customers was “inappropriately accessed” by a former employee who was recently charged in connection with an identity theft scheme, …The charges stem from an incident in May, when an arrest in Burlington, Ont. of two women in a stolen car turned up counterfeit citizenship documents, SIN cards and other identification. .. The affected customers will be notified this week and offered one year of credit monitoring and identity theft protection for free, according to a company spokeswoman. …”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/gm-financial-customer-details-inappropriately-accessed-by-ex-employee-1.3177092
=========
http://krebsonsecurity.com/
21Jul 15
see Experian Hit With Class Action Over ID Theft Service

#26 BS on 08.02.15 at 5:25 pm

You’re saying redistribution like it’s a dirty word.

Obviously we need some level of redistribution. We already have enough. The question is does more than we have now improve the overall economy or even things for those at the bottom? The answer is no.

The problem starts when you redistribute so much there is little incentive to work. The more redistribution you have the more attractive not working or working less becomes. Of course then there is less to redistribute to more people who require the redistribution. Less for everyone. The failure of communism proved this.

#27 Randy Randerson on 08.02.15 at 5:33 pm

#7 Deb on 08.02.15 at 4:09 pm

Not sure why you’d suggest hedging strategy, because it’s useless and expensive. If you see CADUSD going lower, then don’t hedge; but if you see CADUSD, then maybe hedge. The question then becomes which scenario will likely bear fruit over the coming years. My money is on CADUSD going lower, thus my portfolio is un-hedged.

#28 NS in Calgary on 08.02.15 at 5:38 pm

Thanks for the post. Applies directly to me. Getting this advice over and over helps undo some of the previous ways of thinking.

And thanks for this: You cannot build yourself up by tearing others down.

#29 Freedom First on 08.02.15 at 5:55 pm

Yes. I know many of the Blog Dawgs are even better off than I am. So I can say here what I try not to say in face to face conversations, as it only makes people mad, as their financial brainwashing has been a success.

Never mind the adventures, trips, nice cars, and the pretty girlfriends who paid their own way, the #1 payoff of becoming financially savvy at a young age is the peace of mind that I enjoy daily from living a Freedom First lifestyle. I believe it’s what Garth wants for us all.

I always put my own interests first. Helping others is 2nd. This has given me a very good life.

#30 Charity on 08.02.15 at 6:20 pm

#3, #12, #18 Garth’s idiot #1 fan
Perhaps you wern’t born when Garth wrote his first few books, I was twenty and just started reading 2015 after the boom back then. Garth has been spit on when it comes to what he prints but he continuously puts his money where his mouth is and is more often than not correct in his calls. You however, put your foot where yours is, but really it belongs where the sun don’t shine, perhaps if you inserted it where it belongs you may get your head out of there.

Try reading his older books and educate yourself before you read anymore blogs. I run a charity in Alberta and can say that $15 will not even get you hired by the likes of me, I’d pay a student first, at least they are teachable.

If you can be a little less verbose and more global you will likey learn a few things.

Keep going Garth teach each of us one at a time eventually the sheeple will get it.

#31 Ben on 08.02.15 at 6:22 pm

This guy would have *nothing* “saved” if it were not for asset inflation. His 450K “profit” is paid for by the next generation. He should count himself very lucky others are out working for his generation to farm.

No doubt all the boomers+ will vote for more asset pumping come election time. As they have for decades.

#32 S.Bby on 08.02.15 at 6:22 pm

Trudeau says “we will pay for our plan by making the wealthiest pay more in taxes and will stop sending cheques to millionaires just because they have children.

Hmm.
Apparently I am a wealthy millionaire because I have children.

#33 Ben on 08.02.15 at 6:23 pm

Those who did nothing just had the govt rescue them with an interest rate drop. Savers took the hit.

#34 Freedom First on 08.02.15 at 6:25 pm

#17 Victoria Real Estate Update

Well said. It’s all been about smoke and mirrors. Reality will bite, just as it did in the U.S. and elsewhere.

#35 Goldie on 08.02.15 at 6:25 pm

Oh wow, only 20 posts in and already the “commie” label is being tossed around. This should be some entertaining reading today.

Btw, speaking of labels, “dipper” has an entirely different meaning in the lower mainland of BC area. It’s a derogatory word, used in the Indian community to describe a fresh-off-the-boat Indian immigrant who doesn’t speak English or understand anything about Canada.

#36 Trojan House on 08.02.15 at 6:31 pm

If the Dippers or Grits take the election, get ready for Venezuela.2. At that point, it’s time to leave.

#37 30%drop on 08.02.15 at 6:31 pm

How does a 30 % drop in income equate to a 30 % drop in quality of life, as you put it? That amount would largely be offset by a reduction in income tax and not having to pay CPP and EI. None of the costs associated with work (gas, repairs and higher insurance) or buying suits or business clothes. Life should be just dandy.

Most seniors aren’t too heavily into hookers and blow and generally consume a lot less of everything than they did in their younger years. That being said, the offloading of health care expenses from the federal government onto the provinces is bound to have a very large impact in the years to come.

#38 Tony on 08.02.15 at 6:35 pm

With the 30 year bond yields hitting new lows every week interest rates may never rise for at least another generation or more. More gibberish out of America year after year.

#39 Nagraj on 08.02.15 at 6:37 pm

Dear Financial Ann Landers,

I’m 40 and my name is Paul and I’m a nurse and I’m relocating to Calvary, Albertha. Should I sell my Etobichoke van (I live in a used ambulance) and buy a horse and tent when I get there?

Sign me, Perplexed

Dear Hospital Guy,

No.
What you should do is go to the gym a lot so you can get a job with Club Med as an unzipped cabana boy and that way you could hook up with Louise the Tronna doctor who wrote me a week ago. She’s 29. She’s kinda hot.

Toodles

#40 Tony on 08.02.15 at 6:42 pm

Re: #27 Randy Randerson on 08.02.15 at 5:33 pm

Short term the Canadian dollar will go lower especially after the Canadian election. The NDP will put in a great showing at election time killing our dollar. Longer term the Canadian dollar will appreciate vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar since our debt per capita is much lower than America’s.

#41 cheap money on 08.02.15 at 6:44 pm

“In the past ten years Toronto house values have risen 420% while incomes have gained 133%. There’s only one reason houses can inflate so dramatically while incomes do not – cheap money.”

==

Except “cheap money” did not get 300% cheaper.

Any other reason?

#42 aren’t too heavily into hookers and blow on 08.02.15 at 6:48 pm

#37 30%drop

“Most seniors aren’t too heavily into hookers and blow”

——

Only those who did not start to read this blog in time.

#43 Steve French on 08.02.15 at 7:01 pm

Garth says he wants Canadians to be able to invest in financial assets and grow their wealth. But is unwilling to provide the basic living wage and minimum income levels to help make that a possibility.

The only logical conclusion therefore, is that Garth supports the status quo, where the top 10% of Canadians hold 60% of financial assets, and the average Canadian CEO makes more than 200 times of their average worker.

In fact, GT is deeply conservative (he was very happy to sign up for the first Harper Government), and is not on the side of middle class Canadians let alone poorer Canadians.

His response?

“You cannot build yourself up by tearing others down.”

What do you call someone who correctly identifies a problem, but is unwilling to support the actual policy changes (such as a living wage), that are required to fix that problem?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBkBiv5ZD7s&feature=youtu.be

It’s a good thing the young are idealistic and believe in the infinite power of simple solutions. It’s even better they do not weird power. There’s a reason for that. — Garth

#44 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 08.02.15 at 7:03 pm

#18 Garth’s #1 Fan

My, where to start?

FIRST A DIGRESSION TO THE PAST

I wasn’t born yesterday. In fact I was born three months before the Yanks nuked Japan!

At 70 years of age I’ve seen a lot and been to a lot of places including to the former “Worker’s Paradise” the Soviet Union in 1965.

There I contracted appendicitis and had it removed while I was under only a local anesthetic, in a rundown post-war hospital, in the south of Leningrad (now St. Petersburg).

The Soviet Union in those days was a mighty depressing place, even if we (our family) only spent three weeks each in Leningrad and Moscow.

Why?

Because of constant reminders of the Russians’ desperate struggle in their Great Patriotic War (WW2) against the Nazis:

–bullet holes in buildings (including the former Czar’s Summer Palace, in Leningrad, looted by the Germans of its amber collection, which by 1965 the Russians had repatriated),

–a cemetery in St. Petersburg holds the remains of a quarter million Leningrad civilians who perished in the 900 day-long seige,

–bomb damage,

–slums,

–many citizens still in obvious mental distress, and so on.

–then there was the ponderous and incompetent post-war Soviet system where nothing ever worked for the workers or anybody else. One bakery we visited was revealing: everything we were offered a taste of, from bread to cakes, pies, cookies all tasted the same! Like the bread!

HOWEVER, AT THE END OF THE DAY, I WAS VERY GRATEFUL BECAUSE

The four surgeons who operated on me, happened to be all women in the early 40s. Why? Because the men had been killed in the war or else being a medic was “women’s work” then. I don’t know for sure.

So, what did those angels do in the war? I could only guess. Likely they were field medics. Where? Sevastopol? Stalingrad? Leningrad? Kursk? I never asked them, darn it! I was touched by significant history. I will never forget and I’m forever so very grateful.

BACK TO HERE

But back to Canadian politics and the class warfare business.

The main reason why the West saw such advances of the left-wing, especially after the war, was because of the presence of the Soviet Union.

The bosses in the West were able to give some leeway to the workers, because they were afraid of Communism.

But after 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed into a heap of well-deserved rubble, in the West, the layoffs and labour law changes started and it’s been downhill for the working man ever since.

Is that a good thing or not?

Probably not. But there isn’t a damn thing workers, now facing shredded pensions, no job security and advancing technological change that must be causing nightmares, can do about it.

Former BC premier Glen Clark, mentioned elsewhere (#22 BS), is a rare and classic Canadian “change agent”. Sadly there can be only one leader of the Pattison group.

His successor will be different because the business will also be different.

Change is inevitable and necessary.

That is why Messrs. Muclair and Trudeau are not fit to hold his office. They are pandering to the lowest common electoral denominator in trolling for votes. They can’t think outside their constricted politically correct boxes of sonambulance and irrelevant argy bargy.

The future of the average Canadian worker and/or the so-called middle class is what? Uncertain? Non-existent? Doesn’t matter? Great? Happy?

It’s an open question because there is no answer.

As for Leftie dogma, reflected in the faded glory of Joe Hill; study it as only a moment in American history when the working man had the guts to stand up against the boss, won for a while.

But since the 1980s off-shoring rampage, and various trade agreements they’ve been truly whacked.

Verbalisms from the Opposition will not change a thing. There are no solutions right now, as far as I can figure.

Like I’ve said, this will be one interesting campaign. Keeping informed throughout is your civic duty and responsibility. You know where I stand. What about you?

#45 mocha on 08.02.15 at 7:08 pm

sadly, tearing down others to build yourself up does work, and it’s done all the time, especially in the world of politics.

#46 AK on 08.02.15 at 7:27 pm

“There’s only one reason houses can inflate so dramatically while incomes do not – cheap money. And that will come to an end.”
—————————————————————–

Prepare for ‘triple taper tantrum’ in 2016, says Morgan Stanley

#47 Daisy Mae on 08.02.15 at 7:31 pm

‘FREE KITCHENS’….and these pathetic people vote. We are doomed.

#48 Julia on 08.02.15 at 7:32 pm

#17 Victoria Real Estate Update

“Those buyers who qualified for more expensive homes by illegally overstating their incomes (fraud) will be among those most likely to default on their mortgages as prices correct in Canada. ”

Very true. Although I do wonder how many of those fraudsters are overstating their DECLARED income rather than their actual income? There are many who just do not declare and would still have the capacity to continue paying their mortgage.

#49 Daisy Mae on 08.02.15 at 7:35 pm

Re #3: “What I toss at you (for free) is knowledge, based on experience. You cannot build yourself up by tearing others down. Oh well. — Garth”

**********

Do you, #3, want the facts…or do you want to be coddled?

#50 Joe2.0 on 08.02.15 at 7:35 pm

They’ve called an early election because they want to get re elected befor it all goes too hell.

#51 AK on 08.02.15 at 7:36 pm

“There’s only one reason houses can inflate so dramatically while incomes do not – cheap money. And that will come to an end.”
—————————————————————–

Prepare for triple taper tantrum in 2016, says Morgan Stanley

#52 Daisy Mae on 08.02.15 at 7:38 pm

#3: “What, are you in election mode now?”

***********

Garth isn’t in politics. Duh!

#53 Obvious Truth on 08.02.15 at 7:38 pm

#3 Garth’s #1 Fan on 08.02.15 at 3:53 pm

It seems to me that Canada is already as socialist as it gets. We gave great upward mobility because of it. We take care of our weakest as good as anyone. It’s not our job to take care of everyone. You have the golden ticket by virtue of birth or luck. The rest is up to you. I grew up relatively poor and could see that there was opportunity for everyone. Even with all the crony capitalism. If people want better representation they need to get involved. Not whine and expect even more.

People are always their own worst enemy. So bring on the NDP. But they won’t help your finances.

In the end people who are financially literate (not rich) and understand risk can succeed in any environment. I think thats what the discussion is about.

It’s what people like Paul are getting their heads around.
Don’t let that shiny ticket slip from those fingers Paul.

#54 Daisy Mae on 08.02.15 at 7:43 pm

#9: “As a citizen and taxpayer, I for one, cannot wait to bend over, and I know you, too, will be happy to drop your drawers, Garth.It will be good for all of us. A real cleansing :)”

**********

This farce is going to get real ugly…..

#55 MSM-Free Zone on 08.02.15 at 7:45 pm

“….He (Harper) was quickly peppered with media questions about why he was subjecting Canadians to a campaign that promises to be the longest in more than a century and the costliest in the country’s political history.

Simple, Harper replied: Conservative rivals are already campaigning, and they’re doing it on the public dime….” – National Post, Aug 2nd 2015
_________________________

rivals?? seriously??

What a load of shameless hypocrisy from the most unprincipled prime minister in Canadian history.

#56 bigtown on 08.02.15 at 7:46 pm

Glen Clark former Premier of B.C. contracted and paid billions for fast ferries for Nanaimo in a make work project to create jobs but in the end the ferries did not work and were sold for peanuts…not much changes in Canada dear friend.

My Word I was eyeballing the 407 as I drove over it going up to Vaughan and I swear to our Good Lord that the road was close to empty…I am not sure the Government sold it as a parking lot?

Now that Target’s is back home in the old United States of Low Prices I am doing my civic duty to protect all my fellow citizens against predatory pricing ….Shoppers has doubled some of my favourite snacks like QUAKERS Crispy Rice Cakes and PLANTERS Sunflower Seeds and single serving tins of tuna but do not worry we can secure them at DOLLARTREE for only $1.25 for each of those goodies and more. We must not loose faith Dear Sweet Fellow Canadian. Global price collapses will reach our shores and we will not miss out on any of the wonderful selection of consumer products even if the loonie stays on its willful bender.

I love you kids.

#57 rainclouds on 08.02.15 at 7:54 pm

The problem for us fiscally conservatives types is the current situation of an incumbent conservative govt that apparently cannot do basic math and pander to the tea bag imbeciles. Anything to get reelected regardless of the long term impact to the citizenry and country.

Gonna be an interesting campaign. had high hopes for Tubby 10 yrs ago. He has not proven to be any different than his predecessor’s . in fact his hypocrisy and fiscal incompetence is quite staggering.

PS no hotels in Jackson WY under $ 350.anybody out there still clinging to the meme that the US recovery is illusory is sadly mistaken. From Vancouver to WA.OR.ID. WY hotels /restaurants BUSY. Our American brothers are emerging from their fiscal problems.We are just starting.

Who is best to lead us out of our impending mess….none of the above

#58 JG on 08.02.15 at 8:00 pm

and I would have bet this post today was going to be about calling the election.

#59 gut check on 08.02.15 at 8:03 pm

Well the writ has been dropped and already the juvenile BS is thick on this blog / comments.

Namecalling, parroting propaganda past, finger pointing, backwards logic, nit picking, revenge, jealousies and spite pour forth onto the screen, while each typist sits congratulating himself on knowing best.

I went to a candidate selection conference for the Ontario Conservatives once. It reminds me of the comment section here except there everyone was on the same side! Still, they derogated their absent opponents and laughed like schoolyard bullies.

This is the best we’ve got? Please tell me we can do better.

#60 loremr on 08.02.15 at 8:03 pm

I’m CDN, born in Alberta in ’51. Met an American, travelled the world on the cheap, married said American and lived in the US 20 yrs. Husband dies young of pancreatic cancer, I come back to Canada, washing ashore in Tofino, 20 yrs ago. When I think, about the election and the Harper years, my one thought has been, how can Canada, with the same population as Cali, well-behaved, polite, don’t carry guns people…huge country..where are our nation builders? What does our PM have to do? Look at President Obama..look at the problems he inherited, created, whatever..and talk about an Opposition Party ?? come on..Opposition… Maybe what? Canada has 1% of the problems in Cali, lots of water..”As of 2014, California’s gross state product (GSP) is about $2.3 trillion. The state’s GSP grew 2.8% in 2014″ Wiki….now CDN GDP $1.992 trillion (2014) ..Wiki..So if California can do all of that in 2014 and still have to work with HUGE problems in infrastructure, immigration, drought, God knows what else..What are our politicians doing? Where’s their problem solving, nation building, business building skills being put to work?

#61 Retired Boomer - WI on 08.02.15 at 8:05 pm

#2 & #21 Godth

Great links, thanks!

Tells more about what the ‘real’ issues are to be shortly, rather than the mindless politics that infect both countries.
Busy, busy, busy…

#62 Garth's #1 Fan on 08.02.15 at 8:08 pm

> Like I’ve said, this will be one interesting campaign. Keeping informed throughout is your civic duty and responsibility. You know where I stand. What about you?

I’m going with the beard.

#63 IHCTD9 on 08.02.15 at 8:10 pm

#3 Garth’s #1 Fan on 08.02.15 at 3:53 pm

…If the Dippers win, prepare for socialism. Pucker up, Garth. You self-identify with the billionaire class due to your 5 mil liquid or whatever ya got, so I expect much anguish and crying over MONEY instead of enjoying your remaining years, of which let’s be honest (not offensive, just honest), you don’t have many left. Why are you so concerned whether you get taxed 19% or 20% anyway? You planning to leave your fortune to your dog, or what?

——————————————————————-
Nice monolouge guy…

I know you hate to come to terms with it, but it’s a global economy, you can’t control it, neither can the NDP.

Under Mulcair IF he ekes out a majority:

Taxes will go up
Spending will go up
The rich will get richer
The poor will get poorer
Corporations will make untold billions in profit

I’ll give you a minute to allow your knuckles to return to their normal colour.

Sorry about your luck.

There’s not a damn thing you or Mulcair can do about it.

#64 Nora Lenderby on 08.02.15 at 8:13 pm

For Paul: You are reliving my story. Started again at 40-ish with practically nothing.

We rented a series of town centre houses in Ottawa which varied from horrifying to great. The real compensation was that the area was huge fun: ethnically diverse, easy to get about, walking to practically all places of interest and entertainment, convenient public transport when not. The best of times!

When we got too annoyed with the slumlord, or the owner came back from his secondment to China, we just found another place.

And if the $99 toilet or crappy stove/fridge or anything else seriously annoys you, negotiate before you rent the place or, replace it with a better one, yourself. You can take it with you when you leave :-]

(You can decide to leave the toilet if you’re squeamish – I assume not if you’re in the medical field!)

Likewise buying blinds, making curtains, or painting the place. If your landlord has brains, he’ll love you.

Minor home repairs are not just for owners. If you don’t have the skills, ask a friend or use YouTube.

It’s sometimes easier and more fun to do things yourself, than ask a bad landlord to fix things.

#65 Rudygq on 08.02.15 at 8:43 pm

Retired Boomer – WI………You Rock!!!!!
After Garth’s humour, I always look for your post.
Today’s was great!
Thanks.
Junior won’t be able to fully appreciate the wisdom the old man has…..but that can be said about most Juniors.

#66 will on 08.02.15 at 8:46 pm

#9 “The upcoming Mulcair victory will be a part of giving this country a long overdue, bullshit-destroying ideological enema.”

Hahahahahha! Yup!

#67 IHCTD9 on 08.02.15 at 8:49 pm

@ VTP

…and it’s been downhill for the working man ever since…

Third world labour and automation, the bell has been tolling on unskilled labour in first world countries for a couple deades. The third world labour force could take every single unskilled job in the entire first world and still have massive unemployment.

You are very right, politicians can’t do anything, and there are no solutions, but we’d better come up with something. No way in hell can we compete on the wage front. IMHO, we are damn lucky to be resource rich here in Canada. Government is going to have to shrink eventually, it’s going to be painful for a lot of folks…

#68 booya on 08.02.15 at 8:56 pm

Hey Garth and Blog Dogs!

I find myself in a similar situation as Paul – I’m 38 single and employed as a health professional as well. I’ve been renting out east (small town NB…..please no jokes) and I’ve resisted buying and have chosen to invest. It has always been my plan to buy land and build my own home. I can’t see myself moving at this point (due to the lack of career opportunities elsewhere and my familiarity with my workplace and my community). I’d like to be mortgage free when I retire – so 39 y.o.+ 25 year amortization = 64 (seems reasonable). So I’d like to build a modest home (rule of 90) – does this seem reasonable? Any insight is much appreciated. Info:
Non-reg: $150’000; RRSP: $155’00; TFSA: $48’000; personal accounts: $30’000

#69 Nagraj on 08.02.15 at 9:13 pm

Dear Financial Ann Landers,

My name is Bulto Gustavo y Dudamel and I am writing for myself and my Thai friend Tulong Sarong. We are cabana boys and we have met your Louise. It was horrible.
As is customary, I danced into the cabana singing Harry Belafonte’s banana song but with this personalized change: “Hey Mrs. Tullydoctor, tully me banaaaaaana” and your Louise, who was reading, ran outside, screaming!

Tulong, who was outside when he saw her runnin’ out, naturally started up his well rehearsed “Oh, I’ve got a lovely bunch of coconuts, roll-a-bowla bowla penny a pitch” and she threw the book in his face (a big heavy medical book as it turned out).

That’s all she does, lie on the beach with this book.
She won’t dance the limbo or play beach blanket bingo with us.

Our boss, Juarez, figured we wasn’t doin’ our jobs right and cut back on our baby octopus and gin rations. We are very unhappy.

Your AVERAGE HOUSE PRICES AS A MULTIPLE OF PER CAPITA GDP: CANADA VS US chart looks like a crocodile with its mouth wide open and reminds us of the dangers of trying to please Canadian doctor women.

Have you shown that crocodile chart to Paul, the old Canadian hospital guy? If he’s not scared maybe he and Louise could lie on the beach reading that medical book which has a lot of scary photos in it.

Sincerely, Bulto & Tulong

PS: Where is this Candana place anyway? Is everybody there so cruel and uptight? Maybe you need more cabana and banana in Candana.

#70 Shawn on 08.02.15 at 9:23 pm

There is No Early Election

#50 Joe2.0 on 08.02.15 at 7:35 pm said:

They’ve called an early election because they want to get re elected before it all goes too hell.

************************************
Actually, They’ve called the election early. The date is unchanged and is October 19 as previously scheduled.

The official call merely confirmed what everyone was already 99% certain of and were acting accordingly.

I imagine there are some legal and spending implications related to the fact that the campaign is now officially under way.

But it was already unofficially under way for quite a while now.

Why should we sweat about an 11 week campaign? The U.S. presidential campaigns are what, two years?

#71 Renting forever. on 08.02.15 at 9:24 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/smart-savers-keep-their-housing-options-open/article25786383/?cmpid=rss1&click=sf_globefb&service=mobile

#72 lee on 08.02.15 at 9:29 pm

Julia #48,

How about Toronto? 20 percent of workers here work in hospitality or construction where nobody declares what they make. There are girls in Toronto working at Boston Pizzas making over 100000$ ayear inclusive of tips who declare 40000$ a year. That’s effectively a 120000$ income. Banks know people in Toronto have the money to pay their mortgages. The applications mean very little if you work in these industries. We all know a house painter makes 600$ a day. So does a waitress. Prices will keep flying high. Nothing to qworry about if you own real estate in Toronto.

#73 Shawn on 08.02.15 at 9:32 pm

A 1960’s era bulldozer above said (among other things):

1. The rich will get richer
2.The poor will get poorer
3. Corporations will make untold billions in profit

*****************************************
The reason behind points 1 and 2 is, in part, that while both groups 1 and 2 believe point 3, only group 1 tends to act on that belief and buys stocks/equities/ETFs for the long haul.

Group 2 often believes that you can’t make money owning stocks/equities/ETFs even if you find/save the money to invest while at the same time believing that corporations will make untold billions.

Our beliefs and resulting actions in life, to a good extent, determine to which group we will belong upon retirement.

#74 Godth on 08.02.15 at 9:43 pm

#61 Retired Boomer – WI on 08.02.15 at 8:05 pm

Traditional City/Heroic Materialism
http://www.newworldeconomics.com/archives/tradcityarchive.html

The End of Suburbia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3uvzcY2Xug

The cost of cheap oil goes up in all sorts of ways. You’ll notice that most of these people are swarming out of war zones, specifically Iraq, Syria and Libya.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmqOlxNQABI

The costs of keeping this show going only go up.

#75 mr. NDP on 08.02.15 at 9:50 pm

Mulcair is a conservative wolf in NDP clothing. No doubt about that and one of the reasons why you have conservatives who claim they won’t vote for harper this time but vote for NDP? Weak propaganda. Muclair turned down a job for the conservatives due to wanting a certain amount of money. NDP = con and con=ndp.

#76 avanti on 08.02.15 at 9:50 pm

Almost made it through but at the very last paragragh there it was , the Fed is going to raise interest rates again ( no chance not going to happen) .
Cant taper a ponzi scheme .
Only option they have is more QE !
If raising interest rates was the answer , Japan would have done so long time ago.
Coming soon QE 4 to infinity ! This is what third world nations do is print money , think Zimbabwe where there are starving billionaires.

#77 avanti on 08.02.15 at 9:56 pm

Your money is not worth the paper (plastic ) its printed on!
Read Gresham law .

#78 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 08.02.15 at 10:04 pm

This is telling. Oct. 19 is years away, politically.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/oil-slump-hits-fort-mcmurrays-housing-market/article25814458/

#79 Tim on 08.02.15 at 10:08 pm

Despite all the gloom and doom, the reports about real estate being overvalued, Yanks shorting our banks stocks, people in Vancouver still talk about buying houses and think it will never correct.

#80 gut check on 08.02.15 at 10:12 pm

I just read this comment on another blog and I’m reposting because some of you old-school thinkers might benefit from the kind of talk you hate to hear:

“Maybe part of the problem is the f—–g growth of the f—–g financial sector in the past 15 years?

non-contributing f—s don’t know how to make anything, don’t produce anything – just derive profits now from trading around future promises to pay.

Not to put to fine a point on it, but the financial sector is a tumor on the increasingly wide @ss of the american [Canadian] household.”

In other words, socialism, capitalism.. blah blah blah it doesn’t MATTER, because right now we’ve got the worst of both worlds, don’t we? So each of you think we should pick MORE of one, do you? And you think that’ll help? New music on the same old merry-go-round ride?

There are two fallacies that most of you seem to have bought hook line and sinker.

1. There isn’t enough to go around;
2. If you’re not wealthy you must be lazy or stupid.

And there is NOTHING wrong with idealism. NOTHING whatsoever.

Sooner or later you run out of other people’s credit.

#81 Tim on 08.02.15 at 10:17 pm

RE#13
Harper inherited a surplus and pissed it away, racking up the biggest deficit of any PM in history. He subsidized big oil while neglecting manufacturing and now we are really screwed economically. He’s caused the longest campaign in history because his party has more money, yet it will cost all of us taxpayers more money. He’s prorouged Parliament twice to save is own ass, re-written Canada’s election laws, substantially diminished our international reputation. This guy is a disgrace to this country.

#82 fleabitten monkey on 08.02.15 at 10:17 pm

#1 bb, #31 ben
Emmm…… must have missed something. Garth indicated sell the Halifax place….this RN must be living in a mansion or waterfront to support your comment on him sitting on a $600k mkt val residence. From what I hear avg price of a place in Halifax is in the high 200Ks. If such is the case even if he owns place in Halifax outright, dudes in a bit of trouble if he wants to buy like for like in Calgary.

#83 gut check on 08.02.15 at 10:22 pm

.
Here is a test.

Watch the video (or better yet read the piece) and then report back on who the bad guys are in this story. Which characters would populate your world?

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/02/business/a-company-copes-with-backlash-against-the-raise-that-roared.html?&_r=0

#84 tundra pete on 08.02.15 at 10:26 pm

Good luck with this one. Harper is less than a piece of crap, Mulcair is a wannabee and Trudeau? We’ve already run that gauntlet. Let’s not go there again.

Vote for May? Maybe just fu*k up a ballot to at least say you tried but whatever you do….no more Harper. Those of you that voted for that sad excuse last time please, he is the last garbage we need again.

Like garth says; govern yourselves accordingly!

#85 April. on 08.02.15 at 10:32 pm

The “Free Kitchens” sign probably unloads a lot of kittens since people will feel superior to the people using the sign and then feel virtuous for rescuing the kittens from the illiterate.

#86 IHCTD9 on 08.02.15 at 10:34 pm

#68 booya on 08.02.15 at 8:56 pm
Hey Garth and Blog Dogs!

I find myself in a similar situation as Paul – I’m 38 single and employed as a health professional as well. I’ve been renting out east (small town NB…..please no jokes) and I’ve resisted buying and have chosen to invest. It has always been my plan to buy land and build my own home. I can’t see myself moving at this point (due to the lack of career opportunities elsewhere and my familiarity with my workplace and my community). I’d like to be mortgage free when I retire – so 39 y.o.+ 25 year amortization = 64 (seems reasonable). So I’d like to build a modest home (rule of 90) – does this seem reasonable? Any insight is much appreciated. Info:
Non-reg: $150’000; RRSP: $155’00; TFSA: $48’000; personal accounts: $30’000
——————————————————————-
I was in NB a long time ago, stayed at the Rose Motel while passing through – that was a very scary Motel.

Houses must be cheap out there no? I live rurally in small town Ontario and houses out here run anywhere from 100k to 1 mil. You look to be well off and running on the savings front, I’d jump on ownership with the assumption that you’re not going to have to shell out 1.4 million for a house needing a TD9 to kick off the renovations :). Be sure to check into the city development fees, out my way you can buy buy an existing house for less than building one due to the high fees levied by the City. Building materials are going to be going up as our dollar sinks, better do your homework.

#87 John in Mtl on 08.02.15 at 10:44 pm

The Conservatives should not have started the campaign so early, they are likely to run out of promises before election day.

#88 OXI in GREECE !! on 08.02.15 at 10:45 pm

What is it with every govt employee I know. They always have to buy a house. Always. It’s like its written into some contract or something. Maybe its the whole golden handshake I will be employed forever mentality.

#89 Fiendish Thingy on 08.02.15 at 10:46 pm

#44 VTP:
I now know what you’re against, but still don’t know what you stand FOR.

If you oppose Mulcair and Treadeau, and support the middle class, then who do you support in this elections?

#90 H on 08.02.15 at 11:06 pm

Watch 13 Conservative MPs drone on like robots reading the same script
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZcpNJxB4Mk

#91 Gregor Samsa on 08.02.15 at 11:16 pm

I live in Calgary and confirm that in the downtown at least, there’s a noticeable increase in condo listings versus just a couple months ago. Inventory is growing, list prices remain high. Call it “phase 1.”

#92 Randy Randerson on 08.02.15 at 11:36 pm

#73 Shawn on 08.02.15 at 9:32 pm

Good points, I did not think of that. Everyone knows banks like to ding their customers with fees any way they can, yet only the smart/rich/motivated few will buy bank stocks.

Poor people will complain about it, whist whipping out their debit cards to pay for $5 worth of grocery.

#93 Lisa Lopez on 08.02.15 at 11:40 pm

A 20% decline in living standards is nothing. I am 48, married with 2 kids and we both had to increase our savings rate by 18% to currently 40%, up 122%.

This was done over the years as our bonds in RRSP’s, RESP’s, GIC rates kept dropping.

I am tired of hearing the nonsense from the media and others that people that can save, invest are fortunate enough to save thousands a month in our RRSP’s, TFSA’s, GIC’s before our RESP’s as well as our children are now in university.

Despite, us changing 3 jobs in 26 years of marriage and working life, we have managed to set ourselves up for a decent financial future with $150,000 in GIC’s and REIT’s, $93,000 in TFSA’s, $350,000 in RRSP’s, $60,000 in RESP’s drawn down for 2 years now from $86,000.

We had mortgages in the 12% to 13% range for several years and have been mortgage free for 18 years now and never got lost in credit card debt and other debt. We own a modest $350,000 house here in Ontario.

9%, 10% interest rates on bonds, GIC’s were at a high point but 5% to 6% rates on these are more normal.

This is why I see that when interest rates rise, they will still be abnormally low, 4% at best.

#94 Herf on 08.03.15 at 12:06 am

#32 S.Bby

“Trudeau says “we will pay for our plan by making the wealthiest pay more in taxes and will stop sending cheques to millionaires just because they have children.”

Instead, he’ll send the cheques to the millionaires who are “millionaires” because they own an over-priced
$1 million+ house, and also raise their taxes to pay for his “plan”.

#95 Herf on 08.03.15 at 12:11 am

#35 Goldie

“Btw, speaking of labels, “dipper” has an entirely different meaning in the lower mainland of BC area. It’s a derogatory word, used in the Indian community to describe a fresh-off-the-boat Indian immigrant who doesn’t speak English or understand anything about Canada.”

Then I propose the use of the term “dipsticks” or “demoncrats” to refer to the NDP. Or also my (partially) personal concoction, the “Nonsense and Demolition Party”).

#96 No Canada, No on 08.03.15 at 12:19 am

Correct advice would be sell everything in Canada and buy house in Melbourne!

Sydney house prices soared in July by the most since December 2002, underscoring why regulators are cracking down on property investors.

House prices jumped 18.4 percent from 12 months earlier in Australia’s biggest city and 11.5 percent in Melbourne, CoreLogic Inc. said Monday. From June, Melbourne surged 4.9 percent, its largest monthly increase on record.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-03/sydney-house-prices-soar-annual-18-4-biggest-gain-in-13-years

If you remember, those clowns of Australia’s CB keep cutting interest rate to inflate the bubble and keep party going. Exactly the same way as in Canada. There is a relatively easy escape to US from Canadian delusional socialism, but where would you go from Australia?!

#97 Steve French on 08.03.15 at 1:08 am

#43 Steve French

“It’s a good thing the young are idealistic and believe in the infinite power of simple solutions. It’s even better they do not weird power. There’s a reason for that. — Garth”

—–

Yo GT: So like… as opposed to these Conservative MP Rocket Science Brainiacs who weird power?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZcpNJxB4Mk

…. Now that is weird power….

#98 Mike T. on 08.03.15 at 1:19 am

the tide is turning in Kelowna

I came across two whole people that were talking Jays instead of houses

I think it’s a new record

#99 There’s a reason for that on 08.03.15 at 1:37 am

#43

It’s a good thing the young are idealistic and believe in the infinite power of simple solutions. It’s even better they do not weird power. There’s a reason for that. — Garth

=====

Hahaha… the complexity and power of infinite arrogance, administered for reason.

#100 BC Guy on 08.03.15 at 1:38 am

Globally-balanced basket of ETFs …

… really, like where? Europe ?(Greece/Spain/Portugal/Ireland/Italy/France?)

… like the USA where equities are at all-time highs according to P/E ratios, govt debt is astronomically high and interest rates are about to rise?

… like China?

… like Japan?

… like Russia?

… like the UK?

Seems like all those countries have record levels of debt, mass unemployment, equity markets bloated by cheap interest rates, which will start deflating in value once US interest rates start to rise.

I don’t feel comfortable buying ETFs in any of those countries. Wouldn’t buying ETFs in any of those countries be just like buying an overinflated house in the GTA or Vancity? Sure, globally balanced ETFs have risen on average 7% per year for five years, but so has real estate in the GTA and Vancity. Just because global ETFs have gained 7% per year doesn’t guarantee they’ll gain that much in the future.

Sure, the price of oil has crashed, but how much of that is due to the rise in the US dollar (since the price of oil is denominated in US dollars?) That’s why pump prices in Canada have not fallen that much.

I don’t condone buying a house in the GTA or Vancity right now. Just about anywhere outside those centres should be OK to buy depending on your personal situation. Renting sucks. Most rental markets are very tight, lots of competition to rent a place, need to supply references, many places don’t allow pets, don’t allow smoking, you’re at the mercy of the landlord when it comes to renovations (either not doing necessary renos or doing too many renos and disrupting your life). Or the landlord puts your place up for sale and you have to endure real estate agents bringing through hordes of potential buyers. Or really basic things like you absolutely hate the fridge but the landlord won’t replace it. Renting sucks. In most cases, you have little control.

#101 Ronaldo on 08.03.15 at 1:40 am

”Whatever happens on the 19th of October, we will still have an oil collapse, a weak dollar, more job stress and a moribund economy”

October 19th. 1987 was not a good day. Hopefully, won’t be repeated anytime soon.

#102 TRT on 08.03.15 at 1:43 am

Need some advice. Late 30’s and have close to a mid 7 figure portfolio…thanks to some YVR home purchases earlier this decade and lately shorting the Canadian Dollar.

What worries me is the Chinese currency is at a record high against the loonies and rising. I just don’t want to miss out on YVR hone price gains as the RE market is booming.

What to do?

#103 betamax on 08.03.15 at 1:53 am

#3 Garth’s #1 Fan [sic]: “…let’s be honest (not offensive, just honest)…”

Invariably a prelude to offensive a-holery.

“Oh, you would never work for even 30 an hour?”

I certainly wouldn’t. $30/hr is $60k/yr, which is a starting wage for a bachelor grad with a ComSci or engineering degree.

Even Arts students who work hard can continue into grad school, after which they can get a cushy job in academia, still making more than $80k/yr.

Those who end up at Starbucks usually do so because they didn’t work hard enough or aren’t smart enough or both. And maybe they should lose the nose stud and tribal ear-hoops.

#104 betamax on 08.03.15 at 2:01 am

#24 Retired Boomer

If you’re not a socialist when you’re young, you have no heart. If you’re still a socialist when you’re old, you have no brain.

#105 nonplused on 08.03.15 at 2:43 am

Garth posting on a Sunday is not unusual, but he posted yesterday (Saturday) too. The $hit is about to hit the fan. Garth has never been Saturday post type worried.

I don’t know that makes him a 7th day Adventist. Everyone should get a day off but for Garth it’s Saturday.

The end is near.

You guys arguing about interest rates are all fools. Central banks set them and they know not what they do. Just assume the interest rate going forward will be a random number set by a fool. Will it work? Maybe sometimes. Here is the thing: “Only fools win the lottery. Non-fools do not play the lottery.”

Ya, that’s hard to gronk. I often tell parents that they would be better off buying their kids lottery tickets than paying for elite hockey training, and they won’t win the lottery either but it will cost less. They don’t get it. They can’t get it. You can’t get it either.

The human mind is made to make decisions quickly and on limited info. This is why a large number of north American Christians think it will happen that a third of the stars in heaven will fall to earth. If you know what a star is you would know not any even our own sun could fall to earth without totally consuming it. The person who wrote that just didn’t know what a star was.

On the third day, Dog spent the whole day creating the firmament. Separated the waters above from the waters below. Great. But the sun and moon and stars weren’t created until the 4th day. And they were fixed in the firmament.

Yup. The ideas in you head are crap. You know nothing.

#106 Nagraj on 08.03.15 at 2:55 am

Dear Financial Ann Landers,

It’s us again. Bulto and Tulong. Dr. Louise wants to take us to Cadana! (I’ll explain why later.) So we read your letter “The Mushed Middle” again, carefully, and NOW WE HAVE TO TELL HER WE DON’T WANT TO GO TO YOUR COUNTRY!
Because you said “Calary is a TIME BOMB”, “the TSUNAMI of termites is only beginning”, “there’s a DEADFUL R thing” (like our boss Benito Juarez II ?), “avoid the coming STORM”, and you said many other scary things like “sucked into”, “punishing” (Benito is always punishing us), and worst of all in the picture there’s some stupid old ugly ugly ugly fat people who can’t spell and who trap little kittens, if they don’t let ’em out they’ll die in the storm and tsunami. Awful.

Dr. Louise was walking by us when we were eating baby octopusses, you eat them raw dunked in gin. We thought she’d march right past us cause she hates us but no! She stopped, said “Open your mouths” (we did) and then she gave a little scream (she’s been screaming a lot since she got here) flipped through her big stupid medical book and said, “You boys need immediate medical treatment! I’m taking you with me to Otronto!”
Tulong and I have figured out it was the ink sacks. Baby octopusses have ink sacs and Dr. Louise thought our bluish-black lips teeth and tongues were leprosy. We smiled big smiles when she said she’d take us to Cadana.

But is there ANYTHING good about Candada? Why would we go to a place that’s got a tsunami coming with termites even?! We do got a big bag of baby octopusses (to keep Dr. Louise thinking we’re young cabana boy lepers) but maybe we should just tell her the truth about the ink sacks . . . but what if she’s fallen in love with us?

Sincerely, Bulto and Tulong Bhumibol Adulyadej Sarong [he’s very proud of his two middle names]

PS: When we looked on a map we found Otronto on the Adriatic coast of Italy! Tulong thinks I heard wrong, that it’s Toronto and not Otronto. It must be Toronto because there’s never any Italians here.

PPS: Black Curacao: squirt some baby octopus heads into the gin and add sugar.

PPPS: Why did Dr. Louise say she had to be back in your sad country for the national erection? Of what?

Again, thank you for your kind attention, Bulto and Tulong B. A. Sarong

#107 Vanecdotal on 08.03.15 at 4:22 am

#9 80 Days to an NDP Government!

Lolz. Quote of the Day:

“The upcoming Mulcair victory will be a part of giving this country a long overdue, bullshit-destroying ideological enema.”

A “Mulcairium”?

#108 davikk on 08.03.15 at 6:30 am

Canada: At First, There Was Hope That Only The Oil Patch Would Get Hit, It Gets Ugly

http://investmentwatchblog.com/canada-at-first-there-was-hope-that-only-the-oil-patch-would-get-hit-it-gets-ugly/

#109 AussieDave on 08.03.15 at 7:02 am

Don’t count on the Fed to raise rates. Next move is QE4 in 2016

#110 Llewelyn on 08.03.15 at 8:07 am

Oh boy eleven weeks of attack adds focussing on everything but the need to improve Canada’s position in the global economy. I can hardly wait.

By October Canadians will be convinced that all politicians are greedy opportunists who are far more concerned about dining at the public trough than they are about improving the quality of life of Canadian citizens.

This is not the time for ideological rhetoric. It is the time to read the actual platforms of all parties and to decide on a course of action that assures the survival of Canada as a solvent entity for future generations.

Having read the majority of contributions to this blog over the last six months I could not help but notice the self- centred focus .

I have money, I have a good job, I want to retire in comfort, should I buy or rent, where should I invest, I would like more money, any advice Garth.

While I understand the focus on protecting personal wealth accumulated in good times it is essential that we elect a government focused future generations.

Canada deserves better than a government whose main claim to fame is stocking our fridges with perishable food they bought on credit.

#111 Renter's Revenge! on 08.03.15 at 8:37 am

#60 Loremr:

“What are our politicians doing? Where’s their problem solving, nation building skills being put to work?”

Well, since nobody has any money left over to invest after paying their phone bills, our politicians are trying to increase competition in the telecom sector, thereby lowering our phone bills, hopefully. This could take a while, however, because building cell phone towers and laying fibre optic cable is a lot of work, and nobody really wants to do it. But as long as they deny spectrum to the existing providers, for sure someone will come along and scoop up that spectrum, right?

Also, by giving tax breaks for people to do home renovations, they are building the nation from the inside out. The theory is that a population who enjoys their basements are more likely to engage in community building activities.

Besides, all the important cities, like Winnipeg, already have flood protection built around them, so really, what’s left to do?

#112 Smoking Man on 08.03.15 at 9:05 am

You humanoids, Cry me a river.. NDP, Lib’s Con’s…

I have to on a daily basis deal with low life scum, Reptilians, scaring the crap out if kids. It ain’t easy keeping your plant safe.

A Nectonites work is never done.

https://youtu.be/bgZE8s0hBRQ

#113 scripted Conservative MP bot on 08.03.15 at 9:06 am

#97 Steve French on 08.03.15 at 1:08 am

#43 Steve French

“It’s a good thing the young are idealistic and believe in the infinite power of simple solutions. It’s even better they do not weird power. There’s a reason for that. — Garth”

—–

Yo GT: So like… as opposed to these Conservative MP Rocket Science Brainiacs who weird power?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZcpNJxB4Mk

…. Now that is weird power….

=====

This is an awesome find, Steve.

#104 betamax on 08.03.15 at 2:01 am

“If you’re not a socialist when you’re young, you have no heart. If you’re still a socialist when you’re old, you have no brain.”

From this clip it looks like age has nothing to do with brain.

Unless you think “weirding power” by brain washing is the way to go.

Wait, isn’t that a Commie thing?

Funny as the vid may be, it’s an example of why the Cons are good at communications. Each MP is offered a range of media to direct toward their constituencies, this one being for web broadcast and local cable PSA. It’s all coordinated by caucus services, and packaged in a consistent manner to ensure a basic level of professionalism. The script is also consistent – it has to be for a uniform, party-sanctioned message to go out nation-wide. Mock all you want but that is how these guys form a majority with 35% of the vote. Until the opposition understands the power of incumbency, they will stay opposition. — Garth

#114 prelude to offensive a-holery on 08.03.15 at 9:20 am

#103 betamax on 08.03.15 at 1:53 am

#3 Garth’s #1 Fan [sic]: “…let’s be honest (not offensive, just honest)…”

“Invariably a prelude to offensive a-holery…

Those who end up at Starbucks usually do so because they didn’t work hard enough or aren’t smart enough or both. And maybe they should lose the nose stud and tribal ear-hoops.”

====

Ah… the preludes to offensive a-holery…

#115 voter dilemma on 08.03.15 at 9:32 am

NDP? – No thanks…
Liberals? – No thanks…
Conservatives? – No thanks…

#116 jerry on 08.03.15 at 9:34 am

Just how “easy” would it be for an NDP minority government (hypothetical) to reverse the TFSA contribution maximum?

(My millenial entrapreneur kids) just realized that contribution room would carry forward to a point where some day they might actually be able to maximize the TFSA. The “Light bulb” just went on.

Any federal budget can reverse TFSA contribution limits instantly, just as they were raised instantly in the last one. — Garth

#117 79 Days to an NDP Government! on 08.03.15 at 10:14 am

And now it is looking like a MAJORITY!!!!!

NDP – 10 point lead today over the conservatives!!!

How quick was that ??!!!!!!!

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/08/03/ndp-surges-past-conservatives-liberals-in-latest-poll.html

People, you know the truth is in front of us, and Canadians know it.

NDP governments have presided proportionately over far more BALANCED budgets than conservatives and liberals.

Conservative governments have a history of creating and increasing DEFICITS.

That’s the TRUTH, and everyone knows it.

Garth, you provide a great service to folks with your financial advice.

But part of your industry is also about protecting the unfairly gotten, ridiculously low-taxed gains of the elite .1 – 1%, at the expense of the rest of society, the environment, the law and the planetary future of humanity and all species.

This upcoming crushing NDP victory is just part of an inevitable correction that will be taking place all over the world in the years to come.

Even for conservatives, this should be seen as good news. Only the NDP has shown it is capable of being truly responsible, big picture financial managers, without trying to “externalize” the social and other costs of their policies.

Fairness, balanced budgets and the best hope for the future – HERE WE COME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#118 4 MORE Years! on 08.03.15 at 10:19 am

I’m in the Harper camp, why not.
Solely for the entertainment value. Possibly.
Just think what lies ahead, he is the man for the job.
The system needs a complete fail in order to reconstruct.
His government has some work to do, can’t wait.

#119 Nora Lenderby on 08.03.15 at 10:21 am

“Funny as the vid may be, it’s an example of why the Cons are good at communications. Each MP is offered a range of media to direct toward their constituencies, this one being for web broadcast and local cable PSA. It’s all coordinated by caucus services, and packaged in a consistent manner to ensure a basic level of professionalism. The script is also consistent – it has to be for a uniform, party-sanctioned message to go out nation-wide. Mock all you want but that is how these guys form a majority with 35% of the vote. Until the opposition understands the power of incumbency, they will stay opposition.” — Garth

And this, ladies and gents, is why Canadians (in general) are in the economic and political mess we are in. Actually it’s also the power of marketing and political science for good or ill, smart or stupid. We think we are being bribed with the money of others, but it’s mostly our money.

“Any federal budget can reverse TFSA contribution limits instantly, just as they were raised instantly in the last one. “— Garth

Does anyone remember the $1 million capital gains exemption giveaway that Mr. Chetien brought in one year, which was reduced to $500K the next year? (I might be slightly wrong on the details, but I know I didn’t have the means to take advantage of it at the time, whereas certain people did).

TFSA limits. Use it or lose it. It is unlikely that any past limits will be changed retroactively, but future ones are fair game.

#120 Obvious Truth on 08.03.15 at 10:48 am

#115 voter dilemma on 08.03.15 at 9:32 am

Elizabeth May! Green Party!

They will probably reduce taxes on booze and are definitely fond of free speech!

And I see my favourite meterologist Claire Martin is a candidate in Vancouver.

#121 Daisy Mae on 08.03.15 at 10:51 am

#87: “The Conservatives should not have started the campaign so early, they are likely to run out of promises before election day.”

***********************

Yes. It’ll be tiresome. And he’ll be ‘pissin’ in the wind’ as they say. Standing alone. Apparently the other two candidates will wait until September to really start their campaigns simply because they don’t have the funds Harper has access to.

#122 scripted Conservative MP bot on 08.03.15 at 10:55 am

#113 scripted Conservative MP bot on 08.03.15 at 9:06 am
#97 Steve French on 08.03.15 at 1:08 am
#43 Steve French
Yo GT: So like… as opposed to these Conservative MP Rocket Science Brainiacs who weird power?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZcpNJxB4Mk

…. Now that is weird power….

=====

This is an awesome find, Steve.

=====

Funny as the vid may be, it’s an example of why the Cons are good at communications. Each MP is offered a range of media to direct toward their constituencies, this one being for web broadcast and local cable PSA. It’s all coordinated by caucus services, and packaged in a consistent manner to ensure a basic level of professionalism. The script is also consistent – it has to be for a uniform, party-sanctioned message to go out nation-wide. Mock all you want but that is how these guys form a majority with 35% of the vote. Until the opposition understands the power of incumbency, they will stay opposition. — Garth

======

Garth – you must be kidding!

If you believe that this is “good at communications”, “it’s all coordinated by caucus services, and packaged in a consistent manner to ensure a basic level of professionalism” – then what do you think of the propaganda campaigns of the Nazi and Communist parties?

They all worked on the very same principles of “good communications”.

This is simply brainwashing propaganda.
A complete mockery of democracy.

I thought, you were kicked out of this same party, by the same Harper from politics, because your boss had doubts that you would fail to play the role as one of these scripted bots.

#123 IHCTD9 on 08.03.15 at 11:02 am

#73 Shawn on 08.02.15 at 9:32 pm

…Our beliefs and resulting actions in life, to a good extent, determine to which group we will belong upon retirement.

Bang on the money. My wife is a social worker who once worked in the public school system dealing with “problem children”. She then did a stint at CAS, guess who she got acquainted with there? The kids of those same kids she worked with in the Public School System…

Some folks are born to be poor unfortunately, they’ve known nothing else, and no one teaches them. Once they’re old enough to resent their lot in life, they blame those folks and entities with money, and then the government. I believe they are primarily looking for revenge when they vote. The last thing anyone of them do is look to improve their positions, very few – if any.

There are 100 ways to end up flat busted broke at retirement, and only a few ways to get their safely. Not everyone figures it out

#124 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.03.15 at 11:06 am

#13 Victoria Tea Party-

I always thought you neo-cons were against smoking pot!
Your post proves you don’t practice what you preach.

#125 Daisy Mae on 08.03.15 at 11:11 am

#115:
NDP? – No thanks…
Liberals? – No thanks…
Conservatives? – No thanks…

********************

So, who will you vote for? Garth says we should vote FOR something and not AGAINST. And that would be ideal, and wonderful, but…. So, where do we go from here? Small wonder people just don’t bother.

A ‘majority’ win at 38%? Something seriously wrong with this system.

#126 IHCTD9 on 08.03.15 at 11:11 am

#117 79 Days to an NDP Government! on 08.03.15 at 10:14 am
And now it is looking like a MAJORITY!!!!!

NDP – 10 point lead today over the conservatives!!!

How quick was that ??!!!!!!!

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/08/03/ndp-surges-past-conservatives-liberals-in-latest-poll.html

People, you know the truth is in front of us, and Canadians know it.

NDP governments have presided proportionately over far more BALANCED budgets than conservatives and liberals.

Conservative governments have a history of creating and increasing DEFICITS.

That’s the TRUTH, and everyone knows it.

Garth, you provide a great service to folks with your financial advice.

But part of your industry is also about protecting the unfairly gotten, ridiculously low-taxed gains of the elite .1 – 1%, at the expense of the rest of society, the environment, the law and the planetary future of humanity and all species.

This upcoming crushing NDP victory is just part of an inevitable correction that will be taking place all over the world in the years to come.

Even for conservatives, this should be seen as good news. Only the NDP has shown it is capable of being truly responsible, big picture financial managers, without trying to “externalize” the social and other costs of their policies.

Fairness, balanced budgets and the best hope for the future – HERE WE COME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
____________________________________________

LOL, whoa, keep it in your pants buddy!! There’s a long way to go. The polls didn’t predict even remotely what took place in the last Federal election.

Good Grief man, you’re on cloud 9 – these polls change every time they come out!

#127 Doug in London on 08.03.15 at 11:14 am

@No Canada, No post #96:
Wow, the time tunnel just shot me back to the summer of 2000, when I was doing freefall training (great fun!) and Wake up to the Sun by Limblifter was getting a lot of radio play on Q92 in Timmins, where I lived at the time. Also at that time, a lot of “experts” were saying about Nortel stock the same thing you said about houses in Melbourne. Speaking of Melbourne, that’s the home town of heavy metal group AC/DC. One of their classic tunes is Highway to Hell. That could be a theme tune for the housing correction which is bound to come to Melbourne and Sydney sooner or later.

#128 scripted Conservative MP bot on 08.03.15 at 11:37 am

#117 79 Days to an NDP Government!

And now it is looking like a MAJORITY!!!!!
NDP – 10 point lead today over the conservatives!!!

——–

Majority governments just create wild swings to opposite directions, with all the ideological garbage that comes with it.

Bob Rae’s NDP government in Ontario was a huge joke.
He pawed the road to Mike Harris – an other joke.

We need pragmatic government, driven by consensus, instead of ideologies.

#129 AK on 08.03.15 at 11:46 am

bigtown on 08.02.15 at 7:46 pm
“My Word I was eyeballing the 407 as I drove over it going up to Vaughan and I swear to our Good Lord that the road was close to empty…I am not sure the Government sold it as a parking lot?”

====================================

Try driving on the 407, on Monday – Friday, between 6:00 – 9:00 am and 4:00 – 7:00 pm, before posting useless propaganda.

#130 Mary Lin on 08.03.15 at 11:48 am

The NDP had their chance in Canada’s most populous province and biggest provincial economy in Canada.

They blew it, big time! Over 70 tax increases, double digit unemployment, 13%+ and even the public sector got sick of Bob Rae go away premier.

The private sector is the only one that can grow and sustain an economy and they are precisely the NDP’s target and whipping boy.

People will learn the hard way and then precisely those that thought they would be better off will be even worse off. Reality bites!

#131 TRT on 08.03.15 at 11:50 am

75 cent dollar is here!!!!!

Correction to Canada’s RE market almost done. We will be on par with USA RE very soon in USD.

I forecast a 67 cent bottom (1.50).

#132 TRT on 08.03.15 at 11:51 am

Snowbirds on fixed pensions are getting screwed. Hahaha.

#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.15 at 12:08 pm

@#117 An NDP Govt
“Only the NDP has shown it is capable of being truly responsible, big picture financial managers, without trying to “externalize” the social and other costs of their policies.

Fairness, balanced budgets and the best hope for the future – HERE WE COME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

BWAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAAHAHA
ahahahahahaahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaahahahahahahaaaaaaahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
, snuffle, chortle, deep breath, giggle.
hahahahahahahahahaha

Thanks for that.
Havent had a good belly laugh in a while.
Apparently you dont live in NS, Ontario or BC.
All of which “experimented” with NDP govts.
None of them survived a second election.

The NDP are just as incompetant and venal as the other parties only they havent had a chance to prove it……yet.

#134 chapter 9 on 08.03.15 at 12:34 pm

Junior(Trudeau) has promised to scrap the First Nations Financial Transparency Act. This is where you the taxpayer can go on line and see where and how the billions upon billions of dollars are being spent by the 600 plus first nations bands. An example was the salary and bonus paid to a band chief that only has 81 members,his salary and bonus for one year $914,219.00. His rational for non disclosure is “don’t want to hurt their feelings”.

#135 David on 08.03.15 at 12:37 pm

One likes to think Canada is quite capable of having a robust economy and a healthy democracy. On that score Harper really has failed to deliver.

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/08/03/it-gets-ugly-in-canada-technical-recession/

#136 Victor V on 08.03.15 at 1:05 pm

#117 79 Days to an NDP Government! on 08.03.15 at 10:14 am

The poll as reported by The Star is intended to get out the Liberal vote and open wallets to support JT.

#137 OXI in GREECE !! on 08.03.15 at 1:09 pm

Many people say the NDP will TAX AND SPEND us into the stoneage…….

Tax whom? The private sector is tapped. There is no money left to tap. You can’t tax “more” of the public sector as they are paid with tax dollars. All you can do there is give them less such as making pay for “their own pensions out of their own pocket” for example.

I dunno……

I just don’t think the NDP are so stoooopid that they would try to tax people who have no money.

What they can do is:

– Get the F out of the Middle East.
– Cancel the F-35 purchase (they don’t even work)
– Make the public sector more efficient and accountable
– Stop giving (tax dollars) to people all over the world.
– Kill this C-51 bill. Law enforcement works just fine.

That’s what? 30 to 40 billion a year in savings in 30 seconds? I am sure there are billions and billions more.

#138 TRT on 08.03.15 at 1:10 pm

$44 Oil here we come!!

#139 bluetape on 08.03.15 at 1:43 pm

“Ouch. It’s this kind of myopia, ignorance and malinvestment that turns people into Dippers. They start thinking the ‘rich’ and corporations should be paying more tax, that a $15 minimum wage is reasonable or the state should be paying to look after their kids. ”

I don’t disagree but we’ll ALWAYS have many people who suck at planning for their financial future – that is the strongest argument for things like increased CPP (another possible “nanny state” idea depending on your point of view). Voluntary options like TFSA won’t help them and, by extension, won’t help the country as a whole, as much an expanded CPP. You and I may not need it, but many, many others will, and do we want to be forced to support them later?

#140 Leo Trollstroy on 08.03.15 at 1:43 pm

It’s not looking great for the resource sector or the CAD.

Gold is a joke when everybody on the planet wants USD.

I can’t wait until the NDP inherit all this.

#141 Smoking Man on 08.03.15 at 1:45 pm

Steve French..

Ashman, always forgets to switch it to stealth mode..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktdrF2xqod4

#142 Timing is Everything on 08.03.15 at 1:45 pm

Until the opposition understands the power of incumbency, they will stay opposition. — Garth

I see. Like in Alberta. Weird.

#143 BS on 08.03.15 at 1:58 pm

What do you call someone who correctly identifies a problem, but is unwilling to support the actual policy changes (such as a living wage), that are required to fix that problem?

What do you call someone who does not understand government cannot legislate wealth for those not willing or able to work for it? Although left wing governments often promise this government fix to enrich the poor and lower middle class through taxation and spending it has yet to actually be successful in any society ever. Plenty of examples of failure though. Just look at Greece as the most recent example.

#144 Exurban on 08.03.15 at 1:58 pm

#137 Oxi in Greece

I just don’t think the NDP are so stoooopid that they would try to tax people who have no money.

What they can do is:

– Get the F out of the Middle East.
– Cancel the F-35 purchase (they don’t even work)
– Make the public sector more efficient and accountable
– Stop giving (tax dollars) to people all over the world.
– Kill this C-51 bill. Law enforcement works just fine.

**********

Actually, they are that stupid. I know this based on my direct experience of NDP governments in BC, one of which literally raised my income taxes to 54.16% of every dollar earned above $65,000 — which was not a hell of a lot of money then or now.

However, your bullet-point list of five no-brainers the next government can do to save money is a pretty good one. I don’t think it would save 30 or 40 billion dollars, but it would have balanced the federal budget for at least the last few years. I’d add one more no-brainer, which is ending not mending the Temporary Foreign Workers program, the immigration side door that has probably let in a million low-wage low-skill Third Worlders who are never leaving. I don’t know that Mulcair would actually do it, but some of the unions funding him have at least paid lip service to doing it.

A government that enacted that six-point program would be pretty much the best we could reasonably hope for.

#145 Loonie Watcher on 08.03.15 at 2:01 pm

As of 14h01 ET, Monday, August 3, 2015, the Canadian dollar is trading at $0.7609. Only $0.1610 to go before the loonie breaks through $0.60.

#146 Shelly McVirtue on 08.03.15 at 2:11 pm

“If your specialty is psych medicine and the treatment of depression (and delusional socialism), there’s a great future ahead in Alberta.”

In fact, the greatest number of people complaining of depression reside in Vancouver. Vancouver also has the highest number of mental illness cases and the highest number of suicides. Yay…we’re number one!!

Vancouver also consistently polls the least fun, the least spontaneous, the least friendly, the least likely to make new friends. I wonder if it’s all that raw poo poo the city pours into the water every day?

The crimes stats for Surrey BC ( The Sewer) were announced a couple days ago….again…numero uno. Murders up 400%….attempted murders up 500%…sex assault up 450 %…property crimes skyrocketing….looks like the crackheads have won …it’s time for a decent family to consider capitulation and run like hell.

#147 Julia on 08.03.15 at 2:24 pm

#72 Lee
Totally. I was responding to Victoria Real Estate Update but I actually live in Toronto and I know it happens here, figure it applies out west as well.

We bought our small house in mid-town Toronto in 2003. I can’t say we are frugal but we make sure we “pay ourselves first” and save.
I often wonder how people do it and who are these people buying the $1 million + houses, with 2 cars in the driveway. Maybe some is undeclared income, surely a big part of it is debt. I don’t know. I do know that a lot of workers get paid under the table – trades / contractors will often offer a cash discount which as a personal principle I refuse to do.
I do know that some Banks gross up self-employed declared income in mortgage applications. Assumption is that not all income is declared. It’s just wrong.

#148 ALBERTASTROPHE on 08.03.15 at 2:52 pm

At this moment live on television, President Obama is announcing new measures for greenhouse gas reductions, including incentives (and penalties in reverse) for states that comply.

Alberta?

Coffin…meet nail.

Keystone is dead for sure now.

The Alberta economy must find new directions in a hurry.

But that won’t happen in time to prevent a mega real estate crash across this province.

Prices down by 50% within 30 months.

Guaranteed, sadly.

Sell now.

Rent.

This will be very ugly.

#149 Chris on 08.03.15 at 3:06 pm

Can anyone explain what the impact of the NDP’s plan to scrap the stock option deduction will be?

I confess I don’t really understand the way stock options are taxed in Canada… the US approach seems simpler. So I can’t really assess whether the proposed “fix” is fair or not.

#150 Jim B on 08.03.15 at 3:32 pm

“In the past ten years Toronto house values have risen 420% while incomes have gained 133%.”

According to TREB’s figures, the average resale house price in the GTA has risen from $345,065 in June 2005 to $639,184 in June 2015, an increase of 85.2%. You have to go back to sometime in 1986 (I can’t locate monthly figures but the average price that year was $138,925 compared to $109,094 in 1985) to find anything like a 420% increase to this past June.

So “past decade” is more like three decades. A small error, I admit….

Run it again for SFD in 416, not all MLS in GTA. — Garth

#151 Question on 08.03.15 at 3:44 pm

I take it that municipal hone assessment values will be adjusted downward in case of a major drop in house prices, which would result in the government receiving lower property taxes. Does anyone know how long, roughly, it takes for Canadian governments to do such adjustment after a housing bubble burst or melt? And, on a related note, in provinces with rental increase controls (Quebec, notably), would landlords be obligated to reduce their rent when they receive a lower property assessment value?

#152 Question on 08.03.15 at 3:44 pm

Hone –> home

#153 Jerko Nobama on 08.03.15 at 3:45 pm

“At this moment live on television, President Obama is announcing new measures for greenhouse gas reductions, including incentives (and penalties in reverse) for states that comply.”

Obama is eyeballing the speaking tour money the Clinton’s get. His pronouncements on ‘climate change’ have no effect on anything…he’s already a nobody except to a few sycophant liberals.

The lawsuits were already flying as he made his petulant attempt to be ‘the green president’ for the purposes of his book tour. Nothing he said today will become anything but more hot air from this famous fart catcher.

After all..didn’t he just free up another million barrels a day out of Iran and OK the Shell Drill in ‘Pristine’ Alaska? He’s a phony deadbeat looking out for no one but himself.

#154 Shawn on 08.03.15 at 3:48 pm

Loonie Predictions

Numerous people are predicting a 70 (U.S.) cent dollar and a few are even predicting 60 cents.

They may be right but I think the only one on this Blog really betting on it with money is Smoking Man.

I can tell you that as the Loonies went past $1.00 and reached an intra-day high of $1.10 in 2007 there were many predictions it was going to at lest $1.20.

I believe the evidence for this would be found in the comments sections and articles on the Globe and Mail.

Few Canadians were buying U.S. stocks and U.S. real estate at that time. The Canadian dollar held up very well for many years after that and there were opportunities to grab U.S. assets with our dollar near a generational high.

Silly me, I bought U.S stocks as the Canadian dollar rose and transferred cash to the U.S money market funds in my RRSP (later deployed in U.S. stocks).

I don’t particularly try to predict the U.S dollar but my approach at this time is to move dollars back to Canada. In other words I sell the Canadian dollar high and I buy it back low. I started too early but have plenty of U.S. assets left.

To those who predict 70 cents, well good luck but I am not banking on that.

Also for those predicting 70 cents and 60 cents, do tell us about your investments in 2007 to 2013, tell us if you bought U.S. stocks and assets at that time. Or were you predicting $1.20 in 2007 on the basis of the trend?

#155 Cyclist on 08.03.15 at 3:58 pm

132 TRT “Snowbirds on fixed pensions are getting
screwed. Hahaha.”

Can you explain exactly why you find this funny?

#156 Leo Trollstoy on 08.03.15 at 4:26 pm

Few Canadians were buying … U.S. real estate at that time.

Yes and a few of us secured a nice number of U.S. rentals and a USD rental cash flow for the rest of our lives.

Kudos to the Canadian snowbirds who bought along side me at the time.

Was fun.

#157 Timing is Everything on 08.03.15 at 4:39 pm

#148 ALBERTASTROPHE

Saskabush is sickly too…with an election in April 2016. Could be bad timing for the Sask Party. Wall is ‘campaigning’ already on TV etc.

He’s getting ‘High Octane’ worried, I’d say…

http://tinyurl.com/ohsjuwb

…he was just ‘Regular’ worried 24 months ago…

http://tinyurl.com/pcy87gs

#158 Nagraj on 08.03.15 at 4:59 pm

MINOR POINT

When the ECI data came out showing a historic low in US wage increases, my first thought was – didn’t the midget transvestite Bronx baller say that wage data would be a prime concern re raising rates. Sure enough today I read that the Fed’s prime journalist writing in the WSJ says that bad wage data WON’T deter the Fed from raising. Well, well.
So chalk one up for GT on insisting on a Sept hike. GT looks to be quite correct on that (if not necessarily for the right reason . . . )

MAJOR POINT

Some time ago one of the blogdogs complained of the ueber-ubiquity of the phrase “going forward”. Indeed, public dialogue is given to word fads. “Going forward” became a mantra-like phenom as the GFC unfolded (and best translates as a secular “God willing”). The misuse of “decimated” is also notable. [Anybody remember “serendipitous”?] [I miss “bunker mentality.”]
Well, CARNAGE is the IN word now (with TSUNAMI a close second). There’s middle age, old age and carn age and do feel free to order chili con carnage.
The “colour” of fad words indicates (other than especially journalistic linguistic ignorance) social mood.

– the tsunami of layoffs in the oil patch is at the heart of the carnage in Calvary’s housing market, decimating many families’ finances
– the swooning Loonie stumbled declined and tumbled this morning, sagged drooped dropped and fell at noon, dived (!) and plunged at the close, and may crash in overnight trading

#159 gut check on 08.03.15 at 5:02 pm

“#155 Cyclist on 08.03.15 at 3:58 pm
132 TRT “Snowbirds on fixed pensions are getting
screwed. Hahaha.”

Can you explain exactly why you find this funny?
*********************************

It’s the same mentality that makes the snowbirds on fixed pensions think that the poor are lazy.

Same pair of shoes, just different feet.

#160 DA aka Devil's Advocate on 08.03.15 at 5:17 pm

maybe.

#161 DA aka Devil's Advocate on 08.03.15 at 5:21 pm

SHIFT happens…

every 7 to 10 years…

SHIFT happens…

#162 DA aka Devil's Advocate on 08.03.15 at 5:22 pm

Learn to ride the tide

#163 DA aka Devil's Advocate on 08.03.15 at 5:24 pm

#151 Question on 08.03.15 at 3:44 pm

Think “Supply & Demand”

#164 Mister Obvious on 08.03.15 at 5:29 pm

#149 Chris

“I confess I don’t really understand the way stock options are taxed in Canada.”
———————————-

A stock option is not taxed. It’s merely the option to buy a specific number of shares at some specific price. That option expires at some future date.

They are usually offered as a productivity incentive. You are under no obligation to ‘exercise’ stock options (i.e. convert them to real shares) before they expire.

Obviously, if the fair market value of the shares should fall below the exercise price you wouldn’t bother. No loss, no gain.

But if the share value rises (ostensibly due to your fantastic productivity) you can exercise your option and buy those shares from the company at that price.

At that point you have real shares. Now the CRA is involved. As far as they are concerned you have now made a gain. It’s wise to sell the shares ASAP. If they fall in value you are still considered to have profited by the sale price minus the exercise price.

Lots of people have been stung by that.

#165 DA aka Devil's Advocate on 08.03.15 at 5:38 pm

Hypocricy

#166 DA aka Devil's Advocate on 08.03.15 at 5:48 pm

#159 gut check on 08.03.15 at 5:02 pm
#155 Cyclist on 08.03.15 at 3:58 pm
132 TRT “Snowbirds on fixed pensions are getting
screwed. Hahaha.”
Can you explain exactly why you find this funny?
*********************************
It’s the same mentality that makes the snowbirds on fixed pensions think that the poor are lazy.
Same pair of shoes, just different feet.

Maybe someone needs some new shoes?

It is what it is.

Demographics… Supply & Demand… peppered with greed and envy

#167 anotherstabbinginsaskatoon on 08.03.15 at 6:58 pm

Half my generation are in houses. The other half are in jail. The Boomers are gonna reap a whirlwind and Canada will never recover from what is coming. The West eats its young and its young will burn your cities to the ground. That is what is coming friends.

#168 anotherstabbinginsaskatoon on 08.03.15 at 6:59 pm

War is the antidote.

#169 kommykim on 08.03.15 at 7:24 pm

RE: #26 BS on 08.02.15 at 5:25 pm
The problem starts when you redistribute so much there is little incentive to work.

The flip side is that if wages are too low there is also little incentive to work.

#170 kommykim on 08.03.15 at 7:27 pm

RE: #161 DA aka Devil’s Advocate on 08.03.15 at 5:21 pm
SHIFT happens…

Oh God! Please no!

#171 kommykim on 08.03.15 at 7:31 pm

#128 scripted Conservative MP bot on 08.03.15 at 11:37 am

LOL! Love the name. There are a few others on here, but at least you are honest.

#172 maxx on 08.03.15 at 8:17 pm

#29 Freedom First on 08.02.15 at 5:55 pm

“Never mind the adventures, trips, nice cars, and the pretty girlfriends…….”

Freedom to do what, FF? Listen to crickets?

#173 Julia on 08.03.15 at 10:15 pm

#151 Question
“I take it that municipal hone assessment values will be adjusted downward in case of a major drop in house prices, which would result in the government receiving lower property taxes. ”

***************
Nope. They will adjust the mill rate to make sure their revenues are not negatively affected.

#174 geogar on 08.04.15 at 11:30 am

Sounds good Garth. I’ll be back in 1824 hrs +/-

#175 Practical_Logical on 08.04.15 at 2:15 pm

Great Posts: Garth’s Number One Fan and Steve French!
You have the local sycophants here, furiously responding with no logical counter arguments, just basic name calling.

The truth hurts, but it remains the truth nevertheless.