Relax

BEAR RUN modified

They said it would be Ebola. And global debt. Maybe Greece. Or the whackjobs in ISIS. Race riots. Fukushima radiation. Derivatives. Friction with China. Caitlin Jenner?

Not a moment goes by that the doomers don’t predict the end of days. Usually selling books, newsletters, hunks of gold or ammo, these mongers are desperate to hang looming disaster on every new event. Their currency is fear, and lately – as the US recovers, pushing the economy and markets ahead – the rhetoric is soaring.

“Our politicians want to believe that the economy is going to get better, and so do the bureaucrats over at the central bank.  The mainstream media wants to put a happy face on things, and they want all of us to continue to have faith in the system. Unfortunately for them, the system is failing.  I truly do hope that this bubble can last for a few more months, but I don’t see it going on for much longer than that.

“The greatest financial crisis in history is fast approaching, and it is going to be extraordinarily painful. When it arrives, it is not just going to destroy faith in the system.  In the end, it is going to destroy the system altogether.”

Who wouldn’t need fresh shorts after reading that? How could you not want a moat, a Winchester Defender and four gross of Cottennelle in the cellar? If the markets are gonna crash, with mayhem, toppling banks and systemic failure, isn’t cash king? But maybe it’ll fail, too. So how about shiny rocks? Or seeds? Single malt scotch?

Well, apocalyptic and terminal events are confusing, lots of work, plus Starbucks may be closed, so the good news you need not worry. The doomsters are wrong again, and will be for a long time.

Does this mean financial markets go up forever, like houses in Vancouver? Absolutely not. Corrections in all markets are normal, healthy and should be expected. The Canadian stock market corrected last autumn, for example, falling 12% before resuming its upward march – despite the oil price drubbing. Corrections are good because they blow off excess bullish sentiment, spank speculators and prevent bubbles from forming. (This is why you should worry about real estate in YVR and the GTA. Without regular corrections, risk spirals higher.)

Investors should expect a correction every year. But if they have a balanced and globally-diversified portfolio with lots of different asset classes, what happens on the stock markets will be greatly diluted in their own accounts. Corrections are tough to predict, however, and almost impossible to react to – since they normally last only a month or two. So, build a good portfolio and snooze through them.

What you need to be more worried about, of course, is a bear market – a long period of declining prices (20% or more) almost always triggered by a recession. But they’re rare. Only 10 in the past 70 years. The last one, as you know, happened just six years ago. The average lasts a year and a half and knocks markets down 35%. But the most important thing to keep in mind is that 90% of the time a correction does not bring a bear. But 100% of the time the doomers tell you it does.

So the big question is this: are we going to have a recession, since that brings the beaat?

The answer is no, at least in the US. In fact four key sets of critical data that would tell us if misery was on the way are all flashing green – predicting more expansion. First, leading economic indicators have shown no down-trend as always takes place before a recession. Then there’s jobs. Without fail, the unemployment rate increases before a recession, and these days it’s moving in the opposite direction. Over 200,000 new jobs have been created in 14 of the past 15 months and on Friday morning you’ll see it again. Nope. No soft belly here.

A Moderation or Steady Uptick in the Unemployment Rate Occurs Prior to a Recession: the Current Unemployment Rate is Signalling No Danger

JOBLESS modified

Seven of the past seven recessions have also been advanced by an inverted yield curve. That simply means short-term rates move higher than long-term ones because investors expect central banks will drop rates to try and rescue the economy. In a weak economy investors don’t want to hold short-term bonds (unlike now, when you don’t want long ones). Anyway, today’s yield curve is wholly reminiscent of my virility.

And then there’s the GDP, gross domestic product. When this sharply declines or trends steadily lower, it’s time to find the umbrella and head for higher ground. But this is not the case now, with a steady rise in GDP for the past five years. While there are big variations seasonally, the indicator sits at a healthy 3% year/year. No worries there.

Of course, there’s more – like the best car production in seven years or 62 consecutive months of increasing sales for once-bankrupt Chrysler. US house prices have risen 20% since their precipitous decline and new construction is at the best level in over a decade. This is a direct consequence of three million new jobs being created. It has all contributed to a steady advance in corporate profits, and rising stock markets – despite the end of government stimulus spending last October.

Will there be another correction? You bet. The better question is, will it matter? Now you know the answer.

165 comments ↓

#1 Loaman Young on 06.02.15 at 6:14 pm

Just a question Garth, if GDP goes up 3% on a year over year basis, how come the stock market averages 7% and not 3%. You would think the stock market should grow similarly to GDP, not well above it..maybe I am missing something.

#2 Deny & Spin on 06.02.15 at 6:19 pm

Garth, what do you know that even the PR arm of the Fed doesn’t?

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/06/02/grand-central-a-letter-to-stingy-american-consumers/

#3 TurnerNation on 06.02.15 at 6:19 pm

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/04/25/emotional-rescue-2/#comment-167157

#4 Yogi Bear on 06.02.15 at 6:23 pm

Too much cheap money. Will not end well. Balanced portfolios without a “doomer” hedge will still get creamed much more than necessary. The most succesful money managers in the world have already put their hedges in place.

But since we don’t talk about anything except stock/bond ETFs in this blog, it’ll be up to the peanut gallery to figure out what that really means themselves.

#5 Babblemaster on 06.02.15 at 6:23 pm

Sure, a lot of economic indicators seem to show a growing economy, but it’s all based on debt and the wealth effect. It is not based on increased productivity.

#6 bdy sktrn on 06.02.15 at 6:24 pm

” from 2005 to 2012, Vancouver attracted about 45,000 millionaire migrants, more than any other city in the world” – scmp

rennie says Vancouver has about 47,000 single-family homes and a limited land base – van sun

#7 Made in BC on 06.02.15 at 6:24 pm

#213 TRT on 06.02.15 at 4:35 pm
Vancouver prices break yet another RECORD HIGH!!!!

Damn locals! Where they getting $2 million a piece?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

They are not locals….

#8 cto on 06.02.15 at 6:24 pm

garth

everything you have spoken was for America. not Canada, right?

I am predicting your answer to be, “who cares if Canada goes down the crap hole, we are investing globally”.

ok I get it…

#9 mitzerboy aka queencity kid on 06.02.15 at 6:29 pm

great post garth
facts don’t lie

#10 waiting on the westcoast on 06.02.15 at 6:31 pm

Garth says “Usually selling books, newsletters, hunks of gold or ammo, these mongers are desperate to hang looming disaster on every new event”

I’m selling ammo made of gold… Kill two birds with one stone (or metal)… ;-)

I’m off to Toronto to see the big smoke….

#11 Erick on 06.02.15 at 6:36 pm

Garth,
RE in Canada will correct way more than 20%.
I would say 50% at some point.
Prices are totally disconnected from median income.

#12 johnk on 06.02.15 at 6:40 pm

Thanks for lightening up the serious stuff with some wit. I’m ready. Along with the Cottonelle I’ve stashed 50kg of Kraft Dinner.

#13 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.02.15 at 6:49 pm

@#12 johnk
“Along with the Cottonelle I’ve stashed 50kg of Kraft Dinner…..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Well, after eating 100lbs of KD you shouldnt need Cottonelle for at least a year.

#14 Victoria Real Estate Update on 06.02.15 at 6:54 pm

The big picture in Victoria is that house prices will continue to fall. SFH prices in a few select areas may be taking a short break from their long-term price decline (record-low rates and the summer market can do that), but overall, the direction of Victoria’s market is down and will be for some time.

If Victoria’s housing market was healthy, all areas would be showing strength or at least stability. Such is definitely not the case.

Victoria’s core area condo market is struggling as you can see from the listings below. It is only a matter of time before this weakness spreads to core area SFHs. This is how it works in a major price decline – condos first, then SFHs.

There are no surprises here. This is all part of Victoria’s major price decline. I’ve written about it many times.

So far in 2015 (January through May), Greater Victoria’s SFH average price is approximately equal to that of last year. If we add in the fact that there has been a significant shift in the sales mix in 2015 compared to 2014 – significantly more SFH sales in the more expensive areas compared to the less expensive areas – we can conclude that SFH prices in Victoria are actually falling. In the past, Victoria’s board wrote about how the average price can be rising even though prices are falling as a result of a shift in the sales mix. It is happening again. More on that in another post.

These core area condos have been sitting on the market lonely and unloved, despite record-low interest rates – a sure sign that Victoria’s housing market is unhealthy.

— 26 % below assessed value —
— # 307 – 1035 McClure Street (Victoria) —
* minutes from downtown
* 1 bed, 1 bath
* # 349077

— 12 % below assessed value —
— # 101-1115 Rockland Ave. (Victoria) —
* minutes from downtown
* 2 beds, 2 baths
* 55 + building (where are all of those retirees?)
* # 346574

— 12 % below assessed value —
— # 403 – 25 Government Street (Victoria) —
* waterfront on ocean
* mountain view
* 2 beds, 1 bath, top floor
* # 350853

It’s all about looking at the big picture – something some regulars of this blog fail to do.

#15 PM on 06.02.15 at 6:56 pm

What’s up with the US inflation rate dropping like a rock this year? That’s an indicator of slowing consumer spending. How can you be so bullish with that?

#16 Jimbo on 06.02.15 at 6:58 pm

Balanced and diversified is the way to go but I recently put my hedges in place. Even the doomers get it right now and then.

http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-margin-debt-2015-5

3rd chart is tale telling.

#17 bdy sktrn on 06.02.15 at 7:04 pm

“Does this mean financial markets go up forever, like houses in Vancouver? ”
————————

the rt hon gt has finally come over to the dark side…

#18 Victoria Real Estate Update on 06.02.15 at 7:04 pm

As I’ve said, so far in 2015 (January through May) SFH sales are significantly below Victoria’s long-term average (source: Victoria’s board).

2007 can be used as an average year for SFH sales in Victoria with population adjustment, which is necessary to compensate for population growth.

Using SFH yearly sales totals since the early 80s (from the Victoria board’s website), I adjusted each year’s sales total for population growth to 2014. I then averaged yearly sales totals and found that 2007 was an average year.

Why is adjusting for population necessary? For example there was significant population growth in Victoria from 1994 to 2014. With more population, we expect more sales. Population adjustment would take 1994’s sales total and boost it by the same percentage that the population grew over those 20 years. Nothing difficult about that. Population adjustment is a basic concept in statistics and is used all the time. Real estate boards generally ignore it because adjusting sales totals from previous years makes the current sales total look weaker than comparing without adjustment.

There’s just no way around it, SFH sales are below average in Victoria despite record low rates. Nobody can say that SFH sales are strong. That’s just not the case. We should be seeing record breaking sales totals right now but that isn’t happening. Victoria’s market is underperforming considering the current level of stimulation.

#19 WHATFORWHAT? on 06.02.15 at 7:18 pm

it’s ok i’ve seen fight club like 20 times.

#20 zedgt87 on 06.02.15 at 7:20 pm

Fact is, garth has cherry picked a few data sources that bode well for the economy.

well I can cherry pick a bunch of charts that indicate impending recession.

Both are speculations. People should be wary, they have tried to fix teh global economy with the same poison that made it sick in the first place.

Same inputs = same outputs.

No garth, this massive financial run-up in stocks AND bonds is NOT different and will end the same as it did in 00 and 09, maybe even worse this time.

#21 Mark on 06.02.15 at 7:25 pm

“Just a question Garth, if GDP goes up 3% on a year over year basis, how come the stock market averages 7% and not 3%. You would think the stock market should grow similarly to GDP, not well above it..maybe I am missing something.”

The long run average for “the stock market” in Canada is closer to 10-11%, not 7%. Over the long term, stock market returns roughly approximate the E/P (ie: earnings yield) + nominal GDP growth.

Long-term average P/E of the TSX tends to be around 17 (so an E/P of ~6%) + 4.5% long-term nominal GDP growth ~= 10% long-term return.

However, the market can go pretty significant periods experiencing either P/E multiple expansion, or P/E multiple contraction. Meaning that mark-to-market investor returns can be significantly less than, or greater than 10% at times. P/E multiple contraction or expansion is largely an artifact of demographic trends and medium term preferences towards (or away from) certain asset classes.

In the Canadian context, there is a lot of cyclicality in earnings due to heavy exposure to the resource sector. The relative lack of diversification is why it is critical that Canadians use the opportunities available to them, particularly during local and long-term cyclical periods of extreme strength, to diversify with a balanced portfolio. Not only capturing a ‘rebalancing bonus’, but also allowing them to sleep better at night with a less volatile portfolio.

#22 Iann on 06.02.15 at 7:25 pm

#1: “if GDP goes up 3% on a year over year basis, how come the stock market averages 7% and not 3%”

First, GDP growth is measured in real terms (after inflation).

Second, in real terms, equity returns ~ GDP growth + dividends + share buy-back yield.

And hence the magic 4% safe withdrawal rate.

#23 Leo Trollstoy on 06.02.15 at 7:36 pm

Just buy a Toronto or Vancouver property to hedge yourself lol

Prices in those 2 crazy cities have been unsustainably booming for years now!

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com//personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/vancouvers-housing-market-gets-hotter-tight-supply-pushes-prices-to-new-heights

#24 ANON on 06.02.15 at 7:39 pm

Blog pic caption:
“You don’t have to run faster than the bear to get away. You just have to run faster than the guy next to you.”

#25 LazyJason on 06.02.15 at 7:41 pm

Just got a notice from ScotiaBank that effective August 1. 2015 they are changing the terms of their credit products. Everything is going up! Perhaps they’re anticipating a slow down in mortgage lending and need to maximize profits some other way.

#26 rawdiswar on 06.02.15 at 7:44 pm

Winchester Defender and single malt.

Now we’re getting somewhere.

Surely 5% of a portfolio in gold or gold stocks doesn’t qualify for doomer, helps preserve purchasing power, like the Winchester…

Gold has lost 40% of its value in four years. Some preservation. — Garth

#27 Cici on 06.02.15 at 7:45 pm

Gath, all of those negative points you mentioned (downtrend in economic indicators, rising unemployment, declining GDP and strong likelihood of central bank cutting rates in an attempt to rescue the economy) seem to be indicating that Canada will be going into recession.

Or am I off…will we be able to piggyback on a rising US economy?

#28 Retired Boomer - WI on 06.02.15 at 7:46 pm

Markets will be Markets. Geezers increasing in the States every year. More on the government dole than ever that 47% you’ve been hearing about.

No FED rare increase until the SECOND Tuesday of next week, if indeed, EVER!!

Bernie Sanders is making more sense than Hillarity Clinton, and just forget the Red Side – they make no sense AT ALL.

So, life goes on, business seems growing (except the Frac sand ventures presently). New home building in my hood, guys with new, or newer cars. Interest rates low and little pressure to raise, and the market has been giving me income.

What could possibly be wrong with that? Wife got T-bone steak tonight from the local store at $6.99 a pound. Milk $2.38 a gallon. Wisconsin, grass fed cows, and fresh milk.
Hell, gas and milk are now the SAME price.

Does it get better? Have fun with the Real Estate run, I’ll stay invested as I am.

#29 Vancouverite on 06.02.15 at 7:50 pm

To the biggest rise comes the greatest fall? Article about Vancouver real estate in South China Morning Post:

http://www.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1815597/vancouvers-housing-crisis-no-not-and-not-anywhere-else-except-hong

#30 Nagraj on 06.02.15 at 7:55 pm

#188 Godth (previous post): ” . . . Hilsenrath Furious ‘Stingy’ US Customers Refuse To Buy The ‘Recovery’ Propaganda.”

Good grief, reminds me of Poloz advising unemployed young Canadians to work free for a year.

Looking at the graph for FINAL DEMAND in Canada, I’m waiting for Baystreet to complain that Canadians are too stupid to borrow more money to spend on overpriced Scheissdreck – so let’s help ’em out by lowering rates more.

“Relax” indeed, today’s post kinda rewrites La Marseillaise as “Allons enfants de la bourgeoisie/le jour de gloire et arrive

Ont Premier McQuack bet the store and the farm and his career on a quick sharp Recovery. Didn’t happen. The US Recovery, such as it may be, continues intolerably slow, weak and socially uneven.

#31 Penny dreadful on 06.02.15 at 8:05 pm

So more losses for gold and gold miners ?

#32 Time is #1 on 06.02.15 at 8:06 pm

Yogi Bear
Too much cheap money. Will not end well. Balanced portfolios without a “doomer” hedge will still get creamed much more than necessary. The most succesful money managers in the world have already put their hedges in place.

But since we don’t talk about anything except stock/bond ETFs in this blog, it’ll be up to the peanut gallery to figure out what that really means themselves.

We also talk about preferred, reits, alternatives, currency hedged etfs. Derivatives are too risky.

#33 profligate on 06.02.15 at 8:08 pm

If I had a dollar for every time I read “this won’t end well” in this comment section, I could buy a house in YVR. You people who talk like that must be a real joy to be around. Why so scared? Did you sell at the bottom in 08? Park your money in GICs waiting for housing prices to crash so you could redeem yourselves? Life must suck when you sit on the sidelines waiting for bolder people to fail so that you can tell them that you “told them so”.

Corrections happen so pick yourself up out of the gutter and get back in the game. It’s going to end just fine, don’t miss out.

#34 Investorz on 06.02.15 at 8:11 pm

Fabrice Taylor on BNN is 50% cash. CASH is one of his top holdings. Let me see. His clients are paying him to hold cash? I hope he’s right, for his sake. But then again, he picks penny stocks, so his clients like it speculative.

However I can’t disagree with his hairstyle.

Source:
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/6/2/Top-picks-from-Fabrice-Taylor-Air-Canada-Urbana-cash.aspx

#35 Mark on 06.02.15 at 8:14 pm

“Just got a notice from ScotiaBank that effective August 1. 2015 they are changing the terms of their credit products. Everything is going up! Perhaps they’re anticipating a slow down in mortgage lending and need to maximize profits some other way.”

No, just consumers becoming increasingly less credit-worthy.

So more losses for gold and gold miners ?

Mining costs are dropping substantially. Gold prices are stable. Gold miners rely upon the spread between cost of production and proceeds of sales. The spread appears to be stabilizing if not expanding after quite a few years of above-inflation increases to production costs largely on account of a supply chains to the mining industry needing to be re-established after decades of being in a state of atropy.

BTW, RIP Jacques Parizeau. Even though most Canadians disagreed with his ’cause’, it is quite sad that such passionate people have effectively been truncated from the political process in favour of the current crop of corporatist drones. Let his famous referendum night speech, though, be a lesson to contemporary politicians on what happens to politicians when “immigrants” are unfairly blamed if the housing price debate ever falls to such spectre.

#36 John Prine on 06.02.15 at 8:16 pm

It seems there is a “car” bubble, people are overextended on car loans, financing over 84 months and trading in for a loss every few years with the dealers extending them more credit each time, many are so buried……Car dealers have some pretty fantastic stories about credit and customers..This won’t end well.

#37 John on 06.02.15 at 8:18 pm

Goose. Gander. Relax doomers.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/house-prices-may-stay-high-in-canada-here-s-why-1.3095421

Now read all his other columns on why housing will fade. — Garth

#38 Doug in London on 06.02.15 at 8:20 pm

A stock market correction? I must de dyslexic, because every time I read those words somehow I misread it as saying a buying opportunity. Does anyone else here have that nagging problem?

#39 Godth on 06.02.15 at 8:21 pm

#29 Nagraj on 06.02.15 at 7:55 pm

Check out the latest Keiser:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXrv7QOnfTY

More bizarre ‘reality’. haha

#40 H on 06.02.15 at 8:23 pm

What? Garth? No mention of the spring GDP bounce in the USA? From the terrible winter? All the extra money in the pockets of the consumers from gas savings going to spending?

I noticed this is nicely absent from today’s post.

Well, its sort of in your post. You see, in good ol’ USA, the next “bubble” (former housing) has moved to….drum roll….. TRUCKS!

What do we have now.

Cheap gas
84 month loans
Dealers offering factory intensives

for what?

SUVS and trucks. And its showing up in the data:

And consumption of fuel-burning equipment and fuel is certainly rebounding. After nearly five years of moderation, monthly sales of heavier vehicles with larger displacement engines, like SUVs and pickup trucks, are on the rise again relative to lighter vehicles. This past April over 55% of all vehicles sold in North America were pickup trucks and SUVs – up from a 50% average between 2009 and 2014.

Although the efficiency of heavier vehicles has also improved, upsizing from a lighter car to a heavier truck equals heavier overall fuel use.

U.S. gasoline consumption set an all time high last week, with year-over-year growth already up by 3.4%. New consumption records are likely to be shattered this summer and the U.S. Energy Information Agency now expects that U.S. oil demand will grow more than China’s this year
_________________

So rest assured, the current oil collapse will soon be fixed. :-)

Demand for US gasoline has little to do with global oil prices or the supply imbalance. — Garth

#41 H on 06.02.15 at 8:33 pm

“Demand for US gasoline has little to do with global oil prices or the supply imbalance. — Garth”

huh?

#42 H on 06.02.15 at 8:40 pm

Garth

A Barrel of Oil produces about a half a barrel of gasoline.

USA consumes 9 million barrels a day of gasoline and climbing.

You might want to look closer at the numbers. Switching to 55% SUVs and driving further is a big deal.

#43 John on 06.02.15 at 8:45 pm

Now read all his other columns on why housing will fade. — Garth

I have. As well as most of David Sockman’s stuff and on an on…. Nothing is an island….that’s why you preach ‘balance’ Next up Greece and then everyone’s fav…Janet Y Cheers.. Oh, and Crispin Odey’s biggy bondy stuff is just down 19% so I’ve read, case you missed it.

#44 Rainclouds on 06.02.15 at 8:46 pm

CBC Radio had a RE Lawyer of 30 yrs practice on a few min ago.

Reporter”How is the market and Who is buying houses”?
Lawyer “Very busy, buyers over 3 mil West side/ West Van some purchasers are foreign. primarily locals for the rest”
Reporter” where is the money coming from”
Lawyer “intergenerational, locals down payment mainly comes from Bank of Mom and Dad”, BUT, If interest rates rise 2% we will see a decline”
Reporter “Why”
Lawyer ” Banks have NOT changed their lending practices and a rise in interest rates will mean they qualify for less”
Reporter” What effect does this have”
Lawyer” If you qualify for 500k now, a 2% rise means

GT, NAILS IT AGAIN!

#45 bill on 06.02.15 at 8:48 pm

#42 H on 06.02.15 at 8:40 pm
I am not sure how much gas is in a barrel of oil but it probably varies eh?
I understand the shale oil is a very flammable as we found out in Lac Megantic.
I thought this was because it is basically Benzene or the main ingredient of Gasoline and not much else…
anybody know for sure?
Cheap gasoline wont hurt America’s recovery .

#46 Godth on 06.02.15 at 8:48 pm

#40 H on 06.02.15 at 8:33 pm

The USA only uses 25% of the world supply of oil so it doesn’t matter. capisce.

#47 Mark on 06.02.15 at 8:50 pm

I tend to agree with Garth here — the US is consuming less fuel today at $60/barrel, than they consumed at $140/barrel.

However, the sales mix of autos being tilted more towards the guzzlers is probably a contrarian indicator more than anything. Americans are notorious for piling into gas guzzlers just prior to massive increases in energy prices. That’s why most of their ‘consumer’ population is increasingly poor and destitute — incredibly poor personal decision making.

#48 Ray Vasquez on 06.02.15 at 8:51 pm

There is a bear market, loss every year. It is called inflation at 2% to 3%, income taxes and all types of taxes which can be another 2% to 3% a year all based on your capital.

It gradually eats away your money and the longer you live, the more it will take away.

Everything else is just more squeezing of the lemon.

#49 Joe2.0 on 06.02.15 at 8:53 pm

Car loans with a 84 month payback is not a great indicator of a US comeback.
It’s just more debt being amassed via cheap money.
Layoffs at HSBC is also not a great sign of a rebounding economy

#50 Freedom First on 06.02.15 at 8:53 pm

I think the biggest danger of financial harm happening to people is not what is happening in the world. The biggest danger comes from themselves.

#51 Smoking Man on 06.02.15 at 8:53 pm

#3 TurnerNation on 06.02.15 at 6:19 pm
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/04/25/emotional-rescue-2/#comment-167157
….

I remember that one..

Best come back ever…

#52 bill on 06.02.15 at 8:55 pm

Garth
May we have a minutes noise in memory of Bruce Mclaren?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZHMjdzw0w0

Born: August 30, 1937, Auckland, New Zealand
Died: June 2, 1970, Goodwood Circuit, United Kingdom

#53 JuliaS on 06.02.15 at 8:57 pm

India drops lending rate 0.25%. WSJ says not to expect a Fed hike till at least 2016. Recovery alright.

More people dropping out of labour force both sides of the border, but here it’s always rainbow and unicorns.

Consensus of economists calls September rate increase. But the precise month is inconsequential. It is coming. — Garth

#54 Drill Baby Drill on 06.02.15 at 9:03 pm

#42 H

Depending on the degrees API of the crude an average of about 12 gallons of diesel fuel and 19 gallons of gasoline from one barrel (42 gallons) of crude oil. The remainder is used for asphalt etc.

#55 bill on 06.02.15 at 9:04 pm

Thank you Garth!
aaagghh!
sorry about the repeat. My fault entirely.
bill

#56 omg the original on 06.02.15 at 9:07 pm

Corrections are good because they blow off excess bullish sentiment, spank speculators and prevent bubbles from forming. (This is why you should worry about real estate in YVR and the GTA. Without regular corrections, risk spirals higher.)
—————————————

Hmmm….let’s see no correction in housing on the west coast since the early 1980s. (2009 does not count – that was a flash blip.)

One might almost think we are in the tail end of a massive secular bull market.

Rampant speculation, frenzied/panic buying and hairdressers talking about investing in the asset class usually marks the end of a multi decade bull.

Guess what follows the end of a massive, secular multi-decade bull?

#57 souvereigninternationa on 06.02.15 at 9:08 pm

#21 Mark on 06.02.15 at 7:25 pm

see here about 10% returns:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-02/5-investing-myths-debunked

The road to a more predictable portfolio is one that contains balance and diversity. Focusing on only US large capes useless. — Garth

#58 Don Derc on 06.02.15 at 9:09 pm

Well your selling it Garth and I’m only half buying. My concern is municipal/provincial governments behaving like moist horny house hunting virgins. High debt loads for a depreciating asset, with zero savings and little cash flow. Virgins pay too much for old over priced inventory. Governments (no…sorry…taxpayers)will foot the bill for weak infrastructure, like water, roads and bridges etc etc. I’d like to see how many people have taken LOC loans to buy ETFs. (Answer: too many)

Like most real estate boards and some sales agents, and politicians praising drones in Afghanda, we operate in a culture of deceit. The numbers will continue to be fudged, money will continue to be printed, and rates will be kept artificially low.

The yanks are broke – let’s guess when the next “super committee” will be formed – no worries – just raise the debt ceiling. The United States of Amnesia will go to war vs China/Russia economically…and lose. No trade partners there. It was always a one way street wasn’t it?

off topic – I read that the top 3 populated cities in Saudi Arabia use a million barrels of oil per day, through 6 summer months, to operate air conditioners, rec centers, malls, industrial businesses, etc. See you all at the oil show in Cgy next week.

It won’t end well but it will be a slow death. Has anyone you voted for in the last 5 years actually pulled through with fiscal responsibility and made your life a Cdn nirvana? As long as the banks don’t fail….

#59 omg the original on 06.02.15 at 9:13 pm

Not a moment goes by that the doomers don’t predict the end of days. Usually selling books, newsletters,
—————————

I once had a job in which I got access to pretty much every investor newsletter.

Always interesting to scan the DOOMER newsletters.

Usually they lead with ridiculous National Enquirer- worthy speculation about the end of the world. But once past the 1st page it was full of reasonably well thought out stock research recommending a wide variety of equities.

Moral is that even the apparent DOOMERS do not drink their own Koolaid, they are too smart for that.

Its the poor bimbos that get their economic news from headlines of CNBC or zerohedge that get suckered in by the Chicken Little scenarios.

#60 Leo Trollstoy on 06.02.15 at 9:14 pm

A stock market correction? I must de dyslexic, because every time I read those words somehow I misread it as saying a buying opportunity. Does anyone else here have that nagging problem?

I’m too busy counting my wealth. Lol

#61 Leo Trollstoy on 06.02.15 at 9:16 pm

Surely 5% of a portfolio in gold or gold stocks doesn’t qualify for doomer, helps preserve purchasing power, like the Winchester…

Might as well just burn 5% of your money.

#62 Smoking Man on 06.02.15 at 9:17 pm

Turner Nation from the same page your link was on. This was three years ago..

I give you LaughingCon. Bahaha

#180 It’s over realtor scum on 04.26.12 at 8:42 pm
The day of reckoning is here realtors and today marks day one of Canadas housing crash. Sure there are a few no money 2.99% greaterfools bidding up homes they are going to walk on. The day has finally come. BPOE, smokingman your days of uneducated easy money for no work is over today.

#63 souvereigninternationa on 06.02.15 at 9:19 pm

#36 John Prine on 06.02.15 at 8:16 pm

It seems there is a “car” bubble, people are overextended on car loans, financing over 84 months and trading in for a loss every few years with the dealers extending them more credit each time, many are so buried……Car dealers have some pretty fantastic stories about credit and customers..This won’t end well.
______________

Short auto related stocks?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-02/auto-sales-reach-10-year-highs-record-credit-record-loan-terms-record-ignorance

#64 Gulf Breeze on 06.02.15 at 9:26 pm

Gold has lost 40% of its value (in American funds) in four years. It has still doubled its value in ten years — again in American funds. In Canadian funds it has remained pretty resilient. I bought $110,000. worth between 2004 and 2007, seeking to hedge out financial calamity in the U.S. as my income is in American dollars. It has doubled in value, in Canadian funds. It is not a speculative investment. It is purely a hedge. You have to hedge against your own expectations. This is true diversification.

Pure nuts. I told you to sell in 2011. — Garth

#65 Frugal on 06.02.15 at 9:27 pm

How can tapped out Canadians be buying new cars in droves. It must 96 months loans doing the trick … what else could it be … home equity loans?

#66 JuliaS on 06.02.15 at 9:29 pm

Rate increases are coming, that’s for sure, Garth, but don’t expect Canada to be the first in line. We’ll get plenty of advance warning. US will likely lead the way, but right now it doesn’t look like it’s going to be happening any time soon. The only hike warnings we get come from people who want us to borrow right now or to lock in rates. Meanwhile all the countries with rates above zero keep dropping theirs.

I live in a mortgaged apartment complex. 40 units. Our rates renew mid 2016 and then in 5 years the property is paid off. I’m betting on interest rates staying exactly where they are upon renewal, but if they drop, I’m sure the municipality will compensate by raising land taxes. Land lease renews in 2017, so they’ll be watching, standing ready to pocket the difference if there is any. Regardless of the rates, heads – they win, tails – we loose.

#67 souvereigninternational on 06.02.15 at 9:29 pm

#61 Leo Trollstoy on 06.02.15 at 9:16 pm

Surely 5% of a portfolio in gold or gold stocks doesn’t qualify for doomer, helps preserve purchasing power, like the Winchester…

Might as well just burn 5% of your money
—————
money burns – gold melts

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.02.15 at 9:30 pm

6pm Global “News” june2/15

University of BC is considering building 100sq ft apartments (the size of a parking stall) on campus renting for $700/month due to lack of rental accomodation or affordable housing.
Most people interviewed(students) were asked,
“Would you live in 100sq ft?”
“No”
The subliminal message?
Get out there and buy buy buy……….

#69 Victoria Real Eatate Update on 06.02.15 at 9:33 pm

# 56 omg the original

“… no correction in housing in the west coast since the early 1980s. (2009 does not count – that was a flash blip)”

Incorrect. I have posted charts showing 10 to 12% price corrections in Victoria and Vancouver in 08-09 (source: Teranet’s index). Also I’ve posted charts in recent months showing Victoria’s current price decline of 10 to 15% (source: Brookfield’s index).

The west coast price declines in 08-09 were significant and prices would have continued to fall if rates hadn’t suddenly been slashed from near normal to emergency levels.

You write the same basic comment almost every day. We’ve already established that you are probably a realtor.

You consistently make outrageous claims without providing any proof.

#70 H on 06.02.15 at 9:39 pm

Consensus of economists calls September rate increase. But the precise month is inconsequential. It is coming. — Garth

As was the Bank of Canada rate increase. We all know how that panned out.

Today’s factory orders were a serious wake up call things are not so rosey in usa.

#71 Linda on 06.02.15 at 9:40 pm

Have read many times that those who will eventually collect CPP will pay in far more than what they will receive, whereas ‘early’ users of the system will get far more than they paid in. But is this true? CPP was created in 1965 & the collection of benefits began in 1966. So let us look at ‘the geezers’, those born between 1920 to 1942. IF the people born in 1920 are still alive today, they would be 95 at some point in 2015. Those born in 1942 would be a relatively youthful 73. Since this group would have had first kick at the CPP cat, they would presumably be the ones who made out like bandits. Except – average life expectancy for those born 1920/1922 was 59 for males; 61 for females. Prior to 1976, most CPP recipients waited until age 65 to collect. After 1976, most began to collect by age 61. But if the 1920’s cohort were most of them deceased by age 59/61, the amount of time they’d have collected any CPP would have been quite short. Ditto the cohort born 1930/1932. Average life expectancy as per StatsCan: 60 for males; 62 for females. Cohort born 1940/1942: 63 for males; 66 for females. Well, quite a big jump there & those people might have actually managed to collect for more than one or two years.
Now here is the really interesting bit. As per StatsCan, the maximum CPP payout in 1982 was not quite $308 per month, or $3,696 per year. Reduced by 30% for taking it at age 60 would have given $2,584 per year (gross, not net). In 1992, the max payout was $7,633 – reduce that by 30% for taking it at age 60 & the payout per annum drops to $5,343 before tax. Finally, in 2002 the maximum was $9,465 or $6,625 if it were taken at age 60. So yes, those born prior to 1942 probably did get far more out than they paid in – but only because those early deductions were set at very low levels compared to today.

Now we come to the baby boomers. LE (life expectancy) for the 1950-1952 cohort is 66 for males & 71 for females. the 1960-1962 cohort LE is 68 for males & 74 for females. 1970-1972 LE is 69 for males, 76 for females. The 1945 baby boomers w/b 70 this year; the 1966 boomers will be 49. 11 years to go before the 1966 crowd can apply for CPP. If we apply the 1970-1972 LE to the 1966 crowd they should most of them expect to collect CPP between 9 to 15 years. The early CPP recipients on the other hand probably collected on average between 1 to 5 years at most. Time is money & while the later contributors have paid in more, longer LE may well see them getting far more in benefits than their early predecessors received.

#72 omg the original on 06.02.15 at 9:43 pm

I have stopped discussing real estate in Victoria. I just do not want to get into it with people.

But, had coffee with an old government friend the other day.

He asked if I was going to ever buy again – not any time soon I said.

WHY he said – I foolishly answer WHY, idiot that I am.

He then launched into how important it is to own
– SECURITY of having your own roof,
– ability to CHANGE anything you want in the house at anytime,
– ability to make the house “YOURS”,
– a FAMILIAR place for your KIDS to call home, have memories of, and feel cocooned by
– an ANCHOR for your kids to come home to, and in future decades bring their kids home to
– a way to put down ROOTS in a community

Then as I was starting to tear up, he told me that he and his wife are looking for a new home in a completely different suburb then where they have lived for the past 20 years.

#73 Hhppy. on 06.02.15 at 9:51 pm

U.S. Consumers are sucking (less autos). And this is with fall in gas prices. 70% of spending. That is all you need to know. Fact.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/04/14/investing/retail-sales-consumer-spending/

#74 Leo Trollstoy on 06.02.15 at 9:53 pm

Great. Since Toronto real estate prices are increasing so fast, more developers (qualified or not) are ripping everything up in order to build more McMansions. Lovely. This run up in Toronto real estate prices is getting stupid.

http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/canada/toronto/toronto-s-booming-real-estate-market-fuels-teardown-trend-1.3096141

#75 Mark on 06.02.15 at 9:54 pm

“I’d like to see how many people have taken LOC loans to buy ETFs”

Very few, I would suggest. The securities regulators in Canada have more or less shut down the marketing or advising of leverage by regulated financial advisors to their clients. Returns in equity ETFs have been so poor for Canadian investments for the past 7-8 years that investor enthusiasm is in the toilet. There’s probably a few DIY’ers, but I’d hardly say that there’s any evidence out there of HELOCs or margin loans being used to any historically unusual extent in Canada to purchase equities or equity ETFs.

Now, eventually this will reverse. Eventually the lending industry will look towards this sort of lending for loan growth in the absence of growth elsewhere. But right now, borrowing to invest in equities is pretty much off the radar in Canada. Which is unfortunate because at contemporary low valuations, this is probably the time when people should be looking towards such. Not after the market has only gone straight up for 10 years, for example.

You are so full of it your eyes are brown again. Lots of smart people borrow at 3% to earn far more in a balanced ETF-based portfolio, while writing off all interest charges. — Garth

#76 Mark on 06.02.15 at 9:57 pm

“Might as well just burn 5% of your money.”

That can be said about pretty much any asset class, including housing, if held singularly over the long haul. But put them together in a portfolio and rebalance, and gold/gold miners can be an important counter-cyclical component.

#77 John in Mtl on 06.02.15 at 10:00 pm

For Main Street and the honest decent folk out there, the system really IS broken. For Wall Street, the system is working exactly as it has been designed…

I actually know lots of honest, decent, well-off people. — Garth

#78 Binder Dundat on 06.02.15 at 10:00 pm

@Freedom First

“I think the biggest danger of financial harm happening to people is not what is happening in the world. The biggest danger comes from themselves.”

Not only in the financial world, but in all of it. I work in acute medicine, and I’d estimate 85-90% of the patients I see in hospital are there due to abuse of alcohol, tobacco or processed food- not accidents. As always, it’s the taxpayer that picks up the tab for the lack of restraint in the end.

#79 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 06.02.15 at 10:04 pm

There will be no recession in Canada so we won’t even talk about it. Good to know, Joe.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/06/02/canadas-economy-will-bou_n_7496522.html?utm_hp_ref=canada

#80 devore on 06.02.15 at 10:23 pm

#43 John

I have. As well as most of David Sockman’s stuff and on an on…. Nothing is an island….that’s why you preach ‘balance’

Apparently your posts are an island. When you post a link with no substantive comment, everyone’s going to make their own conclusions about your intentions.

#81 espressobob on 06.02.15 at 10:24 pm

A correction would be most welcome. Safest time to load up on quality equity ETFs. Still waiting.

#82 BlackDog on 06.02.15 at 10:25 pm

Relax, while visions of dividends dance in your heads….

http://www.filmsforaction.org/watch/fifa-fatca-and-the-new-world-order/

#83 Randy Randerson on 06.02.15 at 10:26 pm

I’m one of those selected few who uses his LOC to buy ETF’s. Not much, only $20k so far, mostly to top up my TFSA and non-registered accounts.

Return has been more than my LOC at prime + 0%, so I’m happy.

#84 Capt. Obvious on 06.02.15 at 10:39 pm

Corrections and bear markets are not fun. Corrections most people can get through without bludgeoning themselves. Bear markets are when people absolutely amputate themselves. Bear markets will test your patience to stay invested at the ratios you’ve chosen for your balanced portfolio. And history tells us there can be very long periods of zero real return from equities. That is the bargain you’re making for the higher returns equities can provide. You’re not guaranteed a higher return than safer alternatives in the short run, and the long run can be very long indeed. Perspective is key. Once you enter the withdrawal stage of life, your equity exposure cannot be too big. You simply may not have the years for the equity portion to recover and you must avoid catastrophic losses. Some argue for annuities at a certain point, and there is some merit to that point of view.

Of course, the problem is there are many who failed to save when they should have, and they end up with portfolios that are too risky because they “must” earn 10% per year to “make up” for their low savings rate. Run from anyone who advises that course. When the inevitable correction or bear comes, they panic, sell and ruin the whole plan. So it goes.

#85 Mark on 06.02.15 at 10:41 pm

“Lots of smart people borrow at 3% to earn far more in a balanced ETF-based portfolio, while writing off all interest charges”

Of course smart people do that. I even do it to some extent. But there just aren’t that many people doing it at the moment for various reasons including the strong regulatory bias against it, disbelief of long-term returns, abnormally low risk tolerance, and even competing investment tax sheltering programs like the TFSA, etc. Which makes it an attractive strategy.

One the ‘masses’ start leveraging to buy equity ETFs on any sort of widespread/significant basis, its game over for the asset class as prices will have been inflated beyond reasonable fundamentals. Just like contemporary housing has been excessively inflated by credit. And the smart money will have moved into other asset classes and/or vacated the leverage game altogether.

#86 Smoking Man on 06.02.15 at 10:44 pm

I laugh my ass off at all the people going to the gym, eating salad , why?

We’re all going to die. Have any of you even pondered what life after 80 is like. I’ve seen it with my own eyes.

Mom bed ridden for the last 3 years fortunatly her last October her pain ended.

My dad, 97 , get a call from nursing home, he got hit again by another resident, his mind is gone, healthy as beast but can’t find his room after dinner. Goes in other peoples rooms.

Heart breaking , no damn way I’ll but my kids through that.

I’m increasing my alcohal , tabaco and Burger consumption. I’m turning 56 this year.

Its all down hill from here..

Whole foods fools.. Idiots.

#87 IKnow on 06.02.15 at 10:45 pm

#213 TRT on 06.02.15 at 4:35 pm
Vancouver prices break yet another RECORD HIGH!!!!

Damn locals! Where they getting $2 million a piece?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

They are not locals….

———————————————–

They are locals.
A typical $1.4M Vancouver special is bought by a 30 something couple make $120k together, with basement suite and extra bedrooms for rent income, taking on a $1M plus mortgage.

The underlying expectation is Vancouver will be valued like other Chinese dominated cities, such as Hong Kong and Shanghai.
Then the 1.4M investment will be worth $4M within 10 years.

#88 SWL1976 on 06.02.15 at 10:46 pm

No worries

Local police forces having MRAP’s is completely normal and no cause for concern.

Massive military movements of tanks and UN vehicles is also normal in a country which is having a healthy rebound, and is also sign of a healthy and robust economy in the 21st century

No need for concern about the government buying billions of rounds of ammo either. Also, conducting massive surveillance on its citizens is for their own protection and freedom

Anyone who sees this as alarming is clearly a doomer

#89 Suede on 06.02.15 at 10:47 pm

#11 Erick

Dude, NO ONE CARES about median income in relation to house prices. Except economists.

Find yourself a girlfriend. You’ll go to an open house “for fun” within the first year, i’m sure.

The seeds will be sown.

Her house horniness will be through the roof and your sex life directly proportional to how much you indulge her with MLS and more open houses.

When she wants to plop a down payment with funds from wherever and however…

I dare you to turn to her and say,

“No, that property is overpriced b/c of the ratio to median income”

Suede

…drops mic and walks off stage

#90 reckless jane on 06.02.15 at 10:47 pm

Jevons Paradox states ( based on a 150 year observation) that Calgary/and the oil patch will rise again….and probably quickly. And I think most rationale people know that…hence the low number of listings in Calgary. The foreclosures are really low hanging fruit…a fixture in any market that doesn’t depend on HAM for all cash deals.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/what-cheap-gas-and-a-150-year-old-paradox-say-about-where-oil-prices-are-going?__lsa=2afd-3772

And Garth….I know why you think that international equities offer better diversification….as opposed to buying CDN ETF’s…..but….stock picking only the best stocks out of the local market is far better by far. Look at the returns of the top 25% of performers ( I won’t bore you with a list of 5- stocks on the TSX that I own that went up 50% and more in the past 24 months) . Proof that holding bricks like bond funds and euro dogs have no place in a well managed portfolio.

It’s the lazy man/woman/investor who buys the index…dogs included..whereas even a novice can pull down filters from a TD Waterhouse or CIBC Investors Edge site and locate performing stocks.

In the old days it took weeks and even months of research…after years of education…now it’s like shooting fish in a barrel for anyone prepared to spend one hour a night.

#91 cramar on 06.02.15 at 10:47 pm

#65 John in Mtl on 06.02.15 at 10:00 pm
For Main Street and the honest decent folk out there, the system really IS broken. For Wall Street, the system is working exactly as it has been designed…

I actually know lots of honest, decent, well-off people. — Garth

—————–

Yeah. Some even visit this blog.

#92 Mark on 06.02.15 at 10:50 pm

BTW, truly smart people don’t borrow at 3%, they borrow at 1.75% (or less) as I do. An extra 1.25% in borrowing costs simply because they don’t shop around can amount to quite a chunk of coin, especially if market returns aren’t so hot.

Link? — Garth

#93 saxfacts on 06.02.15 at 11:02 pm

Garth

Should everyone dust off their lounge lizard suits and take up sax lessons, as Canada seems to follow US trends with a slight time lag…

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/more-older-americans-being-buried-070314473.html

“More older Americans are being buried by housing debt
Home insecurity: More older Americans contending with housing debt and threat of foreclosure”

Associated Press By Paul Wiseman, AP Economics Writer

#94 D. Pends on 06.02.15 at 11:15 pm

“Who wouldn’t need fresh shorts after reading that? – Garth”

Garth, I just sharted…..

#95 Henry on 06.02.15 at 11:22 pm

Regarding the picture with this post: you should remember that when you are attacked by a bear you don’t have to out run the bear, only the people you’re with.

#96 Paul on 06.02.15 at 11:23 pm

#92 Mark on 06.02.15 at 10:50 pm

BTW, truly smart people don’t borrow at 3%, they borrow at 1.75% (or less) as I do. An extra 1.25% in borrowing costs simply because they don’t shop around can amount to quite a chunk of coin, especially if market returns aren’t so hot.

Link? Garth————————————————————-
BTW truly smart people would not lend you money at 1.75% especially (less)

#97 Bob dog on 06.02.15 at 11:26 pm

Young Canadians have been betrayed by their own parents and government. They need to consider leaving. At least for a few years. #dontHaveAMillion protests are meaningless. The loudest protest you can make is #gotNaftaVisa. I lived in Seattle for 6 years and I still can’t believe I left for BC voluntarily. Biggest mistake of my life.

If you are in your 20s or 30s, do yourself a solid and check out the link below. This is sound advice for younglings living in a city with two million dollar crack houses. Lamborghinis with learner permits and anyone forced to work for a fraction of the cost of living

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/employment/nafta.html

Go south young man/woman. Vancouver will probably be here 5 years from now assuming BC isn’t wiped off the map by a mega thrust quake.

#98 Randy Randerson on 06.02.15 at 11:36 pm

#90 reckless jane on 06.02.15 at 10:47 pm

“…stock picking only the best stocks out of the local market is far better by far.”

So how many Apple, Google, Amazon, Tesla and Berkshire Class A shares do you own?

Duh!

#99 Nemesis on 06.02.15 at 11:59 pm

“62 consecutive months of increasing sales for once-bankrupt Chrysler.” – HonGT

#StrictlySpeaking… #ItWozJeep&CuzinFrankie… #WotDoneIt… #NeverUnderestimateTheBuyingPower… #OfDoomers…

https://youtu.be/OP0LmtfR4qA

#100 Dee on 06.03.15 at 12:10 am

Quoting Garth: “The Canadian stock market corrected last autumn, for example, falling 12% before resuming its upward march – despite the oil price drubbing.”

This, by the way, is the true beauty of a balanced portfolio, where you rebalance %s rather than chase news. I actually had no idea at the time that the TSX fell 12%. I check in every few months and rebalance, both with new money deposited and with fixing out-of-whack per centages.

In short, because I didn’t check at the time of the 12% drop, I didn’t even notice. I’m sure my US or bond or whatever investments moved up at the same time. The total balance kept moving up over time and I just rebalanced the next time around.

Sure beats having everything in a single asset!

#101 Vicpaul on 06.03.15 at 12:33 am

#71 Linda
Nice contri – well thought out and articulated.
Thanks for sharing.

#102 Leo Trollstoy on 06.03.15 at 12:43 am

Link? — Garth

Mark doesn’t provide sources. Just anecdotes.

Hence why he was banned off other forums.

#103 Leo Trollstoy on 06.03.15 at 12:44 am

But put them together in a portfolio and rebalance, and gold/gold miners can be an important money-losing component.

Fixed that for you.

#104 Nagraj on 06.03.15 at 1:12 am

Garth’s riposte to #77 John in Mtl: “I actually know lots of honest, decent, well-off people.”

Mon tres cher ami Garth,
Prepare for La Force prison. Did you not realize that our tri-coloured prosecutor was facing a crowd of revolutionary millenials and their parents and friends? How could you CONDEMN YOURSELF by defending Le Comte et la Comtesse de la Ruefacile as gens honnetes – of course they`re nice people, but so what.
You have a good simple heart, its price now is your head.
I can keep Bandit from the guillotine (Robespierre still likes me) but that is all I can do for you now.

Adieu, Nagraj

#105 Steve French on 06.03.15 at 1:41 am

Smoking Man:

People like to think, in their more optimistic moments, tat death is nothing to be afraid of.

I’ve been at the bedside and watch both my parents die.

And believe me. You should be afraid.

There’s no way around it. The death of the body — it’s not a pleasant process.

Living is better.

#106 Waterloo Resident on 06.03.15 at 1:46 am

Will stocks keep rising forever, or fall; who knows?

Will houses keep rising forever, or fall; who knows?

But I know this:

– You can pick your friends,
– You can pick your nose,
– But you can’t pick your friend’s nose.

#107 Tamsen on 06.03.15 at 1:54 am

“Made in BC on 06.02.15 at 6:24 pm

#213 TRT on 06.02.15 at 4:35 pm
Vancouver prices break yet another RECORD HIGH!!!!

Damn locals! Where they getting $2 million a piece?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

They are not locals….”

Same in West Vancouver!

#108 Carpe Diem on 06.03.15 at 2:40 am

My wife pulled a few rounds of let’s get our own home bit on me. We live in a place where our landlord subsidizes us living there. Pure and simple. 2 acres, nice home, renos, etc. Could use more space but whatever.

We live in Ottawa. Ottawa is the largest city in terms of land in Canada. It has lots of forest or farmland with villages scattered around.

I joked/semi-serious that our kids could enjoy being kids in a village versus being a the forest.

2 weeks later, my wife agreed and it is time to stop renting this wonderful home for this awesome place in the village!

So I did the math if I were to buy this place in the village.

Rule of 90 – age … check
Rule of House price 2.5 times your annual salary … check.

I should buy!

But wait … this required a $350+ mortgage so I can fit this rule!

And we’d pay much more in monthly payments then this rent!!

WTF … seriously?
But wait.

I asked the kids where they want to live village, suburb or this home for the next 3 years.

All agreed …

This home.

It sucks to be far from friends but in winter having your own hill to slide down is awesome!

The rule of kids.

I’m sticking to that!

#109 Mark on 06.03.15 at 2:41 am

“Gold has lost 40% of its value in four years. Some preservation. — Garth”

And the other side of the proverbial fulcrum, the US dollar and stock market, outperformed. Gold thus served its predicted countercyclical, inversely correlated role in the balanced portfolio.

Given gold’s underperformance, the USD$ and US stock market’s severe outperformance, and, according to Bloomberg, a 6-year low in allocation in portfolios, there’s a pretty good argument to be made that its time to re-load for another round.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-03/investors-cut-gold-holdings-to-lowest-since-2009-as-stocks-rally

#110 A Nightmare On Bay Street on 06.03.15 at 3:57 am

The ginger obviously shot him in the leg.
Because hes the slowest. And he has no soul.
Like realtors.

#111 Dave in Kincardine on 06.03.15 at 6:14 am

When the US yield curve inverts there will be a real estate meld down in Canada along with our currency weakening and the US will come in here and buy everything in sight. By trying to own unaffordable real estate we will end of owning less than when this started. Very Sad.

#112 Armando on 06.03.15 at 7:36 am

I don’t think things are quite as clear cut as Garth paints them.

“Then there’s jobs. Without fail, the unemployment rate increases before a recession, and these days it’s moving in the opposite direction.” – Unemployment is and always has been a lagging indicator, not a leading one.

“leading economic indicators have shown no down-trend as always takes place before a recession. ” – True, this is confirmed by ECRI (https://www.businesscycle.com) and they are not currently forecasting a recession. But ECRI also predicts a slower rate of growth going forward across the board for Developing countries (this is a secular trend). This era of slow growth makes it easier for exogenous “shocks” to push the US and the global economy into a recession.

Having said that, sticking to a diversified “Buy & Hold” approach through thick-and-thin should certainly provide better long term results than buying guns, ammo, freeze dried food, and gold!

#113 fancy_pants on 06.03.15 at 7:37 am

You were saying? …enter stage left more reasons low rates can’t be wished away.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/oecd-downgrades-global-growth-outlook-20150603-00081

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/oecd-slashes-u-s-canadian-growth-estimate-1.2403933

http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Global+economic+watchdog+warns+weak+recovery+slashes+forecast+growth/11105038/story.html

Why give three links to the same story? It is still irrelevant to the topic on which I wrote. — Garth

#114 Armando on 06.03.15 at 7:37 am

Oh and one more thing: It’s impossible to get an inverted yield curve when Central Banks around the world are engaged in ZIRP and grotesque levels of monetary manipulation. So that “indicator” is out the window!


Not in the US, which is what I referenced. — Garth

#115 Smoking Man on 06.03.15 at 8:10 am

Our activist teacher premier at it again.

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/barbara-kay-bill-77-the-affirming-sexual-orientation-and-gender-identity-act-is-a-dangerous-overreach&pubdate=2015-06-03

Foot note: not that their is anything wrong with it.

#116 Leo Trollstoy on 06.03.15 at 8:21 am

Given gold’s underperformance, the USD$ and US stock market’s severe outperformance, and, according to Bloomberg, a 6-year low in allocation in portfolios, there’s a pretty good argument to be made that its time to re-load for another round.

Time to re-load for another round of losses in gold.

#117 Leo Trollstoy on 06.03.15 at 8:24 am

Living is better.

Nobody lives forever.

The sooner you come to terms with your own demise, the better.

No point being afraid of the inevitable. You can’t avoid it.

#118 The American on 06.03.15 at 9:15 am

At #97: Bob Dog, I am curious… May I ask what compelled you to leave Seattle back for BC after living in Seattle for 6years? Besides affordability in purchasing a home, can you shed some light on your take about the differences and similarities between Seattle and Vancouver (the scene, jobs, expendable income, entertainment, etc.)? I am particularly interested to know what kind of work you’re in and how that compare to BC, too. I have friends in BC, or who have lived in BC, and I’ve been discussing options with them to pack up and come here to Seattle, yet they seem highly resistant to it but would rather choose to complain CONSTANTLY about the cost of living in Vancouver. I just don’t understand it.

Other friends of mine from France, Germany, the U.K., and Australia have literally seemed to jump at the opportunity to live here, packed their things up, and are now working high-paying jobs in the Seattle metroplex, seems to love the quality of life, and a few are considering not returning to their home countries (establishing citizenship).

#119 Realtor007 on 06.03.15 at 9:15 am

Toronto home prices soar: ‘No relief’ to meet pent-up demand

“With no relief so far on the listings front, expect similar rates of price growth as we move through the remainder of 2015,”

“Tight market conditions, especially for singles, semis and town homes in the [Greater Toronto Area], have resulted in strong price growth”

Complimentary of the G&M

The risk grows. — Garth

#120 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 06.03.15 at 9:29 am

#105 Steve French on 06.03.15 at 1:41 am
Smoking Man:
People like to think, in their more optimistic moments, that death is nothing to be afraid of.
I’ve been at the bedside and watch both my parents die. And believe me. You should be afraid.
There’s no way around it. The death of the body — it’s not a pleasant process.
Living is better.
____________________________________________
Agreed, been there, done that with both parents. Both heavy smokers, both died of Cancer. Watching them slowly deteriorate from what was a healthy person into person riddled with excruciating pain, loss of functions and then a morphine induced haze was hell. Held the hand of my best friend in a Army hospital back in 1972 as he died from shrapnel wound. God watching the life drain out of someone is sad. Yep living is so much more fun! I live for today and hope to live for tomorrow!

#121 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 06.03.15 at 9:34 am

#115 Smoking Man on 06.03.15 at 8:10 am

Our activist teacher premier at it again.

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/barbara-kay-bill-77-the-affirming-sexual-orientation-and-gender-identity-act-is-a-dangerous-overreach&pubdate=2015-06-03

Foot note: not that their is anything wrong with it.
____________________________________________
Next election I hope they hand her a ticket back to lala land. Oh and on the way she can still pay us back for the election hydro scandal. Oh you thought we forgot about that? WTF Ontario, what where we thinking when we elected this one?

#122 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 06.03.15 at 9:45 am

They said it would be Ebola. And global debt. Maybe Greece. Or the whackjobs in ISIS. Race riots. Fukushima radiation. Derivatives. Friction with China. Caitlin Jenner?
__________________________________________
Back in the early 60’s my father bought our home in San Diego. My mother hated the home but my father loved it, we had a bomb shelter in the back of the home. You know what it was used for? Storage, and a great place to hang out with girls! Never used for its purpose, so no matter what you plan for you may or may not be prepared. If we would have been nuked it wouldn’t have mattered as the resultant radiation would have lasted much longer than we could bunkerd underground! Again though the Zombie apocalypse is what scares the crap out of me! Lock and load!

#123 the enlightened one on 06.03.15 at 9:45 am

garth you are the only shining light amongst all this goom and bloom world.
i agree with everything you state.
the price of homes in metro is insane.
i tried to convinve my sister but she went ahead and purchased a home in the annex 6 years ago. i pray everyday that she will not be financially ruined.
good luck garth, you are doing such an amazing service to everyone in the financial markets

#124 Karma on 06.03.15 at 10:12 am

Greece’s exit from the Eurozone can’t come soon enough…

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11644762/Greece-must-stop-hoping-for-a-miracle-it-needs-to-leave-the-euro.html

#125 LL on 06.03.15 at 10:30 am

# 14 Victoria Real Estate Update

26 % below assessed value —
— # 307 – 1035 McClure Street (Victoria) —
* minutes from downtown
* 1 bed, 1 bath
* # 349077

— 12 % below assessed value —
— # 101-1115 Rockland Ave. (Victoria) —
* minutes from downtown
* 2 beds, 2 baths
* 55 + building (where are all of those retirees?)
* # 346574

Don’t you think it is the assessed value who is too high?
Those condos has been buil in 1960…They don’t even have a granite counter…. (wink..in a flash)!

Higher it is assessed by municipalities, higher are the taxes paid by the owner (and municipalities employees can vote a higher salary..because we don’t have more services because the taxes cost more).

Too my point of view assessed value are too high but it’s based on the sales in the area (those who are – unfortunately – willing to pay that price).

#126 TurnerNation on 06.03.15 at 10:41 am

The bull is back boys. Till October likely.

#127 LOL CANADA on 06.03.15 at 11:10 am

Toronto claims average price of detached = 1.150 Mln
Only 1,447 sales in May of a detached home in Toronto.
Seeing as a family of 4 in a city of 5 million, there is over 1 million households. 20,000 transactions in toronto on detached homes.

Whats happening?
Sellers are selling for more and buying for more. No new blood in this market.

Who can afford it when you need 200K income to afford this level of debt.

Let’s say you buy a home for 400k 10 years ago. The home is now worth 900k. mortgage is 300k.
Want to move to a 1.150 M home? that is only 200K more now. mortgage up to 550k, living in a 1.150M home.

Compare that to a new buyer trying to get a home at 1.150M. Impossible.

These are people relocating. Young people are priced out.

#128 Say no to Yoga Pants on 06.03.15 at 11:14 am

INCREDIBLE

change out the word Sweden for Canada….tell me this is not a globalist plan after you read this.

‘Financially, Sweden is an oddity in that it never had its real estate correction when Lehman Bros went belly-up and the housing market everywhere in the West crashed. Sweden just kept steaming ahead, which means housing is ridiculously overinflated. In Stockholm, the real estate prices increased 19% and in Gothenburg 24% in the last 12 months alone — from an already sky-high level.’

there is more gold at

http://swedenreport.org/2015/06/02/goodbye-sweden/

Sweden’s Mr. Turner?
not exactly……

#129 4 AM Sunrise on 06.03.15 at 11:33 am

TD is offering market-linked GIC’s promising 8.88% (is this a HAM attractant?) for a 3-year term: http://www.tdcanadatrust.com/products-services/investing/gics-term-deposits/mkt-growth-gics.jsp . Party on, peeps, and don’t argue with the big money.

That’s a maximum possible (not guaranteed) return of 8.9% over three years, not annually. — Garth

#130 Rational Optimist on 06.03.15 at 11:39 am

129 Say no to Yoga Pants on 06.03.15 at 11:14 am

That was great, thanks for turning us on to that.

#131 Investorz on 06.03.15 at 12:10 pm

Laurentian Bank just reported earnings.

They did well. As opposed to the big banks, it’s not wealth management or capital markets that’s the source of their profit, but Commercial lending is up 20%.

Best of all, they aren’t tied to the fate of the oil industry and its workers, since they are focused on Quebec.

Dividend is now 4.6%. Valuation is 50% below the stock market average valuation.

Now that’s a bet I rather make than buying a single condo in one of the new 50,000 condo units that are coming into market in Toronto!

#132 Bottoms_Up on 06.03.15 at 12:17 pm

#118 The American on 06.03.15 at 9:15 am
——————————————————-
For many Canadians the gun culture and healthcare culture are enough to keep us rooted, regardless of all the flaws here.

#133 Mark on 06.03.15 at 12:17 pm

“Time to re-load for another round of losses in gold.”

I guess buy low, sell high is lost on you. Unfortunate, because that’s how people make money. The link provided clearly shows that gold is, at least as an investment, quite out of favour.

So are pit bulls. There is zero reason to own gold. — Garth

#134 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 06.03.15 at 12:25 pm

#124 Karma on 06.03.15 at 10:12 am
Greece’s exit from the Eurozone can’t come soon enough…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11644762/Greece-must-stop-hoping-for-a-miracle-it-needs-to-leave-the-euro.html
_________________________________________
GREECE is as good as gone out of the euro zone. Britain’s exit from the EU has also started to seem a real possibility. David Cameron has promised a referendum vote on Britain’s EU membership by the end of 2017. Britain did not join the single currency scheme and it is not a member of the Schengen passport-free travel zone nor do they want any of it. 2017 it all falls apart!

#135 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 06.03.15 at 12:29 pm

Were going to need that backyard bunker!

http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21652348-china-asserts-itself-naval-and-air-power-and-america-responds-risks?spc=scode&spv=xm&ah=9d7f7ab945510a56fa6d37c30b6f1709

#136 Jeff in Moose Jaw on 06.03.15 at 12:35 pm

#129 Say no to Yoga Pants
change out the word Sweden for Canada….tell me this is not a globalist plan after you read this.
——————————————————-

My favourite is this one…..

Stephen Harper and John Howard give the same speech
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIfUogRRxC8

#137 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 06.03.15 at 12:37 pm

#94 Smoking Man on 05.31.15 at 7:10 pm
What a grand self destructive life I lead. It brings me so much joy. Mothers pray your kids never grow up with a low board-om tolerance.
Game Theory, I could go with the cooperative strategy and save my job at the tax farm…not that I need it.
Can’t do it.. Even if I wasn’t a zillionaire.

Little duchbag managers in IT, making a complete mess off things, I’ve protected them , lied for them, saved their asses zillions of times. I’m the best in my field, 40 thousand hours of experience. Malcome Grommel says it only takes 10 thousand for guru status. I’m god at my game.
All my shit running like a Swiss watch at the tax farm.
Now I could if I was a nice guy, warn them what’s coming down the pipe, how it will screw everything up and they will all get fired as a result.
But I’m choosing to say nothing, have my good bye drinks at the duke, then spend the rest of the summer on lake Ontario. Then in the fall, LA, maybe Newport Beach.
My spy’s will give me play by play that will give me metal orgasms, then they will need to hire at least 50 off shore head boobing wizards to cover me. Which will eat there bonus.
There is only one Smoking Man…
I want to say to them bet accordingly, not this time.
___________________________________________
Sound familiar Smoking Man, this sort of shit goes on all the time. My company does not outsource its labor. We are making a decent profit margin and employing local and national staff. It can be done the bottom line is profit but not by using outsourced low cost part timers.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/last-task-after-layoff-at-disney-train-foreign-replacements/ar-BBkE3Ud

#138 lee on 06.03.15 at 12:40 pm

Katia Dmitrieva of Bloomberg has proven you all wrong on a crash in TO. It says so in the National Post.

That is an interview with the head of mortgage insurance company Genworth, whose revenues depend on housing sales. Don’t be such a pushover. — Garth

#139 LOL CANADA on 06.03.15 at 1:09 pm

The higher prices rise, the harder they fall?

#140 Nemesis on 06.03.15 at 1:22 pm

#OldSchool…

[WAPO] – How a curmudgeonly old reporter exposed the FIFA scandal that toppled Sepp Blatter

“This journalism business is easy, you know. You just find some disgraceful, disgustingly corrupt people and you work on it! You have to. That’s what we do. The rest of the media gets far too cozy with them. It’s wrong. Your mother told you what was wrong. You know what’s wrong. Our job is to investigate, acquire evidence.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/06/03/how-a-curmudgeonly-old-reporter-exposed-the-fifa-scandal-that-toppled-sepp-blatter/?hpid=z1

#WhatWouldMickeySay?*…

[NYT] – Last Task After Layoff at Disney: Train Foreign Replacements

“I just couldn’t believe they could fly people in to sit at our desks and take over our jobs exactly,” said one former worker, an American in his 40s who remains unemployed since his last day at Disney on Jan. 30. “It was so humiliating to train somebody else to take over your job. I still can’t grasp it.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/04/us/last-task-after-layoff-at-disney-train-foreign-replacements.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

#IfAWeekIsALongTimeInPolitics… #HowAboutADecade?….

[Politico] – George W. Bush outpolls Barack Obama

…”Americans now have a more favorable view of former President George W. Bush than they do of President Barack Obama.

It is the first time in more than a decade that Americans have expressed a favorable view of Bush, at least according to a new CNN/ORC poll released Wednesday.”…

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/poll-george-w-bush-popularity-obama-popularity-118576.html?hp=r4_4

[NoteToDogz: *Mickey?… He’s been there before: http://tinyurl.com/q5b75au ]

#141 WHATFORWHAT on 06.03.15 at 1:36 pm

Detached home prices up 20% in Toronto and 16% in Vancouver y/y.

Does this sound like sustainable growth to anyone?

#142 Victoria Real Estate Update on 06.03.15 at 1:45 pm

# 125 LL

“Don’t you think it is the assessed value who is too high?
Those condos has been buil in 1960…They don’t even have a granite counter…. (wink..in a flash)!”

Lol that’s funny. The assessed value of the building takes into account the year it was built silly.

“Too my point of view assessed value are too high but it’s based on the sales in the area (those who are – unfortunately – willing to pay that price).”

As I said, the assessed value of this unit takes into account the year it was built.

The assessed value of this building would reflect its value as of July 2014.

In a flat market you would probably see units in this building selling for close to assessed value.

However, condos in Victoria’s core area are falling in value at this time, so there are plenty listed below assessed value and these units will probably sell below their already discounted list price.

Would you like more examples? No problem, I’ll post more.

#143 Julia on 06.03.15 at 2:03 pm

#132 Investorz
” Laurentian Bank just reported earnings.

They did well. As opposed to the big banks, it’s not wealth management or capital markets that’s the source of their profit, but Commercial lending is up 20%.

Best of all, they aren’t tied to the fate of the oil industry and its workers, since they are focused on Quebec.

Dividend is now 4.6%. Valuation is 50% below the stock market average valuation.

Now that’s a bet I rather make than buying a single condo in one of the new 50,000 condo units that are coming into market in Toronto!”

———————————–

Caution: Commercial Bank means they are also highly invested in lending particularly in real estate construction and development. Including condo projects.

#144 Smoking Man on 06.03.15 at 2:16 pm

138 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 06.03.15 at 12:37 pm
#94 Smoking Man on 05.31.15 at 7:10 pm
What a grand self destructive life I lead. It brings me so much joy. Mothers pray your kids never grow up with a low board-om tolerance.
Game Theory, I could go with the cooperative strategy and save my job at the tax farm…not that I need it.
Can’t do it.. Even if I wasn’t a zillionaire.

Little duchbag managers in IT, making a complete mess off things, I’ve protected them , lied for them, saved their asses zillions of times. I’m the best in my field, 40 thousand hours of experience. Malcome Grommel says it only takes 10 thousand for guru status. I’m god at my game.
All my shit running like a Swiss watch at the tax farm.
Now I could if I was a nice guy, warn them what’s coming down the pipe, how it will screw everything up and they will all get fired as a result.
But I’m choosing to say nothing, have my good bye drinks at the duke, then spend the rest of the summer on lake Ontario. Then in the fall, LA, maybe Newport Beach.
My spy’s will give me play by play that will give me metal orgasms, then they will need to hire at least 50 off shore head boobing wizards to cover me. Which will eat there bonus.
There is only one Smoking Man…
I want to say to them bet accordingly, not this time.
___________________________________________
Sound familiar Smoking Man, this sort of shit goes on all the time. My company does not outsource its labor. We are making a decent profit margin and employing local and national staff. It can be done the bottom line is profit but not by using outsourced low cost part timers.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/last-task-after-layoff-at-disney-train-foreign-replacements/ar-BBkE3Ud
…….

Ha your posting a lot lately, I call it the GF feaver

This is problem, the schooled ak. Managers don’t know how to mesure productivity or understand stability. The minute stuffs working good, lets broom some dudes.They want bonus after all.

Short turm you can get some pretty good savings, but eventuly not having good expert specialist around a huge mess is eventually created. Then through in more off shore chepos and you end up with a beast. The eventually need to be killed and you start over again.

I’ve seen this cycle play out many times.

Who’s heard of Six Sigma….no one here in Canada.

#145 Nora Lenderby on 06.03.15 at 2:56 pm

#71 Linda on 06.02.15 at 9:40 pm
Have read many times that those who will eventually collect CPP will pay in far more than what they will receive, whereas ‘early’ users of the system will get far more than they paid in. But is this true?

Interesting.

All the better reason to look after your health, lads and lassies. Everyone knows that wealth is positively correlated with longevity – apart from Mr. Smoking Man, who could still quit and live long and prosper.

In a decade or so, getting yourself put down will become normal – just like when it’s time for the old dog to go…

#146 The Real Victoria on 06.03.15 at 2:59 pm

Victoria Real Estate Update said:

“It’s all about looking at the big picture – something some regulars of this blog fail to do.”
———————
So why don’t you quit wasting your time posting ficticious statements and illegible statistics.

Do us regulars a favour and post your BS elsewhere.

#147 SWL1976 on 06.03.15 at 3:11 pm

#147 Smoking Man

Who’s heard of Six Sigma….no one here in Canada.

————————-

Haha, I’ve had a few run ins with some black belts.

Lame. Schooled is right

#148 Entrepreneur on 06.03.15 at 3:21 pm

Mankind should be careful of the environment. We have created a money world & forgot what “back to the mean” means. Mankind has disrupted cycles of life of many species which makes a downward snowball affect for other life. How many more record breaking weather report before the real deal?

We are but only puppets trying to get back to the mean.
Maybe that is why the forest is so relaxing to the mind & body.

#149 Smoking Man on 06.03.15 at 3:23 pm

Detached homes in 416 up 18%.. Boom

Long Branch up 30% , long branch doing all the heavey lifting.

#150 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.03.15 at 3:38 pm

Outsourcing Mickey Mouse:
How do I explain this to my grand children?

#151 Al on 06.03.15 at 3:39 pm

The Bond Market is signalling higher mortgage rates.

#152 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 06.03.15 at 3:39 pm

The third paragraph is rather frightening. Unfortunately my MPP is a conservative. If yours is a Liberal I would be contacting them and asking questions. I already contacted the Premier.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-liberals-set-to-remove-hydro-one-oversight-ahead-of-sell-off/article24764334/

#153 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 06.03.15 at 3:39 pm

#147 Smoking Man on 06.03.15 at 2:16 pm

138 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 06.03.15 at 12:37 pm
#94 Smoking Man on 05.31.15 at 7:10 pm
…………………………………………………………………

Ha your posting a lot lately, I call it the GF feaver

This is problem, the schooled ak. Managers don’t know how to measure productivity or understand stability. The minute stuffs working good, lets broom some dudes.They want bonus after all.

Short turn you can get some pretty good savings, but eventually not having good expert specialist around a huge mess is eventually created. Then through in more off shore chepos and you end up with a beast. The eventually need to be killed and you start over again.

I’ve seen this cycle play out many times.

Who’s heard of Six Sigma….no one here in Canada.
____________________________________________
Taking nice days off on the boat here in Oakville harbor. So I have some time to kill between, coffee, beers and friends dropping by. Easy we use it to achieve Six Sigma, a process must not produce more than 3.4 defects per million opportunities. A Six Sigma defect is defined as anything outside of customer specifications. A Six Sigma opportunity is then the total quantity of chances for a defect. Process sigma can easily be calculated using a Six Sigma calculator via statistical process control programs. I took a SPC course at the Center for Taguchi Methods.

#154 Leo Trollstoy on 06.03.15 at 3:53 pm

So are pit bulls. There is zero reason to own gold. — Garth

Completely agree.

Never take advice from a person like Mark; a person who has no money and even less credibility.

Investing in gold and gold miners is a good way to go nowhere financially.

#155 Blacksheep on 06.03.15 at 4:17 pm

Smoke # 147,

Your protest sounds familiar.

Dennis from Jurassic Park:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cv3B-fdour0
&
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RfiQYRn7fBg

#156 Gulf breeze on 06.03.15 at 4:18 pm

Fwiw– my gold position is in bullion and represents a small fraction of my net worth. I prepared by reading everything I could on how money works.

There are still gaps in my understanding but I am at peace with my choices.

As I stated before, bullion is insurance against both inflation and chaos. It is NOT an investment.

One of the surest ways of establishing the credibility of experts is learning what their biases are and discounting for them. On economic forums I frequented, I noted that biases were most reliably revealed through personal insult and often arose when people were, “talking their book.” I took it into consideration and gleaned from it when they were being rational and when their emotions might be getting in the way.

#157 Keith in Calgary on 06.03.15 at 4:54 pm

I wonder who is smarter…………Garth or some of the world’s governments.

We have countries that are hoarding gold in depositories for according to Garth, no valid reason.

Ever been to the Louvre or any other world class museum lately ? The next time you go to one, ask them where there FIAT MONEY EXHIBIT is located. When the laughter dies down you can go ask for a ticket refund. of course, there are many museums where priceless gold artifacts are encased under alarmed glass with guards nearby. The same cannot be said for paper however………….LOL !!!

Buy all the gold you want, cowboy. Good luck. — Garth

#158 Residential Properties for Sale in Toronto on 06.03.15 at 5:25 pm

A debt of gratitude is in order for helping up the genuine stuff with some mind. I’m prepared. Alongside the Cottonelle I’ve stashed 50kg of Kraft Dinner.

#159 Deny & Spin on 06.03.15 at 5:37 pm

The Fed is in “watchful waiting” mode – no rate rises in the foreseeable future.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20150602a.htm

Given the softness in the data we have seen so far this year and some uncertainty about how much to attribute to temporary or statistical factors, I think there is value to watchful waiting while additional data help clarify the economy’s underlying momentum in the face of the headwinds from abroad. If continued labor market strengthening is confirmed and inflation readings continue to improve, liftoff could come before the end of the year.

Did you even read it? “If continued labor market strengthening is confirmed and inflation readings continue to improve, liftoff could come before the end of the year.” — Garth

#160 Deny & Spin on 06.03.15 at 5:44 pm

“If”, Garth, “if”. It’s all in the details.

#161 Mark on 06.03.15 at 5:57 pm

“Never take advice from a person like Mark; a person who has no money and even less credibility. “

Unequivocally not true. Why don’t you get a life instead of trolling others with completely uncalled for, and untrue remarks?

#162 Victoria Real Estate Uodate on 06.03.15 at 6:11 pm

Some delusional west coasters think that real estate on the west coast will correct less than in other Canadian cities.

History has proven this assumption to be wrong. I’ve posted charts that show Vancouver’s 12% price slide in 08-09. Below is Victoria’s. Note that several other Canadian cities experienced much smaller price declines over the same period of time.

. . . . . . Victoria House Prices. . . . . . .
. Percent Below June 2008 Price Level .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .0%. . .*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 1%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 2%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 3%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 4%. . . . . . . . . . . .*. . . . . . . . . . .
– 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 6%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 7%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 8%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 9%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-10%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. . .
—————————————————————-
. . . . . .June. . . .December. . . .April. . .
. . . . . .2008. . . . .2008 . . . . . 2009. .
(source: Teranet’s index)

#163 Victoria Real Estate Uodate on 06.03.15 at 6:26 pm

#149 The Real Victoria

“It’s all about looking at the big picture – something some regulars of this blog fail to do.”
———————
“So why don’t you quit wasting your time posting ficticious statements and illegible statistics.”

Fictitious statements? Please provide an example.

Illegible statistics? Again please provide an example.

I clearly source my stats and facts. For sales totals I use the local board’s site. Perhaps you don’t like population adjustment. Everyone knows that realtors hate population adjustment. Population adjustment creates an apples to apples comparison of sales and without it sales stats are misleading.

Are you a realtor? You probably wouldn’t admit it if you were.

Perhaps the fact that I have postrd several examples of core area condos that are currently listed 12 to 26% below assessed value has got you angry. You’ll need to work on that anger and vulgarity problem or Garth might ban you from his blog. You can always post on another blog that allows these things as well as racism. You’d probably fit in better there.

Maube you’ll think of something intelligent to post some day. That would be interesting.

#164 Linda on 06.03.15 at 9:10 pm

#101 Vicpaul & #143 Nora – something I should have added was how age worked against the ‘early’ birds as well. Those born in 1920-1922 would have been 44-46 years of age in 1966; that would have given them only 19-21 years of contributions at age 65. So they could not have possibly received ‘the maximum’ CPP. Ditto those born in 1930-1932 – they would have contributed only 29-31 years if they worked right up to age 65. The 1940-1942 cohort would have been the first group to be able to contribute to CPP for long enough to potentially receive the maximum at age 65.

#165 Dan on 06.04.15 at 4:24 pm

Love the blog, first ever comment.

I’m in my mid-twenties and have a substantial amount of cash built up ~$60K with no properties to my name… Is it worth waiting for a correction to unload?

Not if this is for your long-term future. Market-timing is a bad sport unless you are investing for the next few months. If that’s the case, stick with the bank. — Garth