Surprise!

SURPRISE modified

Yikes. The commies haven’t even taken over Alberta yet, and the Cowtown market has gone full throttle reverse. As people vote in an election that polls suggest could end a four-decade rule by the Tories, there’s one thing on their mind. The economy. For most families, that means houses. Mortgages. Their net worth. And it’s shrinking right along with oil and Jimmy Prentice.

May has started off in disaster territory – sales down 50% from year-ago levels, with the average price faded by 8.2%. Of course, this month is just a few days old, but it continues a trend which has seen crappy numbers every period in 2015. Barring a massive jump in the price of crude (and most analysts think the opposite will happen), this summer will be a true drought.

Of course, Calgary is a study in how delusional people can become. A year ago it was all testosterone, bidding wars, a house shortage and truck nutz. Now a tough reality is sinking in – that tens of thousands of people stand an excellent chance of losing heaps of money.

Housing consultant Ross Kay is all over this, as he should be. He tells me there are 192,820 houses in the city (44% of the total) that would sell today for less than the owners originally paid. And you thought real estate always goes up? Silly goose.

“If you bought the average home sold in Calgary in March of 2007,” he says, “and paid the appraised value that appeared on the property tax assessment form ($427,158) you would need to sell that home in 2015 for $478,687 just to make up of any loses caused by inflation. Unfortunately you could only expect another buyer to pay $480,122 leaving you in the hole after your selling costs were paid out. So here you go owning a home for 9 full years and still losing money with no one telling you how to protect yourself.  There are 192,820 Calgary home owners in that boat right now!!”

Needless to say, there are a lot of people incredulous they could have sunk so much into the most riskless of investments in the boomiest town in the nation, with the cheapest-ever mortgage rates, and yet made nothing. It’s a reminder of how bubbles happen, and how they deflate. The sellers made money. The realtors scored. The bankers got fat. And the debt remains.

So, does anyone think Albertans would even contemplate voting NDP if house prices were rising?

Meanwhile, over the rocks, nobody believes anything remotely similar could happen in BC. After all, it’s different there. It’s different this time. Haven’t you heard the news?

Vancouver realtors are at it again this week, priming the pump. The local cartel’s boss, Darcy McLeod, is doing his best to arouse the moist Millennials and wrinklie Westside trophy-house hunters. “The supply of homes for sale today in the region is not meeting the demand we’re seeing from home buyers,” he says. “This is putting upward pressure on prices, particularly in the detached home market.” Yup, buy now or buy never.

Sales are hot in YVR, with 37% more last month than the same time in 2014, while listings are lower by almost 20%. So the average price has jumped 8.5% in a year, says the board, with detached houses 12% more costly. The average is approaching $1.5 million, in a city where the normal family earns $72,000.

Vancouver has always had a house fetish. These days it’s a disease. And like in Calgary, circa 2013, anyone suggesting the party will end is scoffed at. “It’s a competitive and fast-moving market today that is tilted in favour of home sellers,” says Darcy. It’s also fraught with risk and an object of morbid delight to those who like to watch things blow up.

canada-housing-bubble modified

So, this chart from the ‘Visual Capitalist’ has been making the rounds for the past few days. No wonder. It’s shocking – if you believe that house prices should be rooted in economic fundamentals. Like how much people earn. Or what real estate can be rented for. “In every inflating bubble,” says the VC, “there’s usually two camps. The first group points out various metrics suggesting something is inherently unsustainable, while the second reiterates that this time, it is different.”

Canada’s realtors, central bank and government say it’s different here. Almost all economists, in varying degrees, say we’re nuts. There are hedge funds betting against us, plus warnings of doom flowing from international monetary bodies, ratings agencies and sharp people who lived through the US disaster. We now know this is the bottom for mortgage rates. We know our economy stopped growing last year. And now we can witness, in Calgary, how fast bravado turns to tears.

Anyway, let’s see how Alberta votes. No doubt a bunch of new taxes will fix everything.

208 comments ↓

#1 lol on 05.04.15 at 5:57 pm

First?

#2 Randy on 05.04.15 at 6:02 pm

…as the tide goes out…

#3 We the Sheeple on 05.04.15 at 6:05 pm

Remember, you’re richer than you think. spend spend spend….rates are low!

#4 Sarah on 05.04.15 at 6:05 pm

NDP FTW!

#5 MSM-free Zone on 05.04.15 at 6:13 pm

“…..A year ago it was all testosterone, bidding wars, a house shortage and truck nutz. Now a tough reality is sinking in – that tens of thousands of people stand an excellent chance of losing heaps of money……”
_________________________

1980 all over again (rinse and repeat…)

No wonder Albertans are looking for change.

#6 None on 05.04.15 at 6:15 pm

full fix everything?

problem is that the NDP will get in; the housing market will crash; that’ll be blamed on the NDP and the conservative CON that they are somehow good for the economy or more financially literate will continue.

#7 Karma on 05.04.15 at 6:20 pm

Garth,

See the GoC 5-year bond yield today? Up to above where it was on Jan 22nd…

http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/canada-5-year-bond-yield

#8 Karma on 05.04.15 at 6:21 pm

Actually, Jan 16th…

#9 Henry on 05.04.15 at 6:21 pm

“Canada now has the most over valued housing in the world.”

OK, I believe it now. I’ve read it on Zero Hedge!

Actually the zero guy got it from Visual Capitalist. — Garth

#10 Calgary is AWESOME on 05.04.15 at 6:22 pm

Drink up.

http://calgaryherald.com/business/local-business/growth-in-alcoholic-beverage-sales-in-alberta-leads-nation

Rat free and commie free since 1905 (until tomorrow)

#11 Bob on 05.04.15 at 6:22 pm

This guys townhouse in Alberta has lost almost 60% of it’s value in 4 years.

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/you-can-walk-away-from-your-mortgage-if-you-live-in-alberta-but-should-you

#12 DYOR on 05.04.15 at 6:23 pm

Remember this is a global debt fuelled phenomenon, down here in Australia I could replace your Vancouver with Sydney and your Calgary with Perth and have exactly the same outcome.

Like Calgary Perth has falling rental yield, rising vacancies, sales listings up 50% year on year, asking prices slowing drifting down yet our experts (read spruikers) proclaim it’s different down here too – whereas Sydney is literally booming I’m talking stratospheric just like Vancouver thanks to record low rates

..and our reserve banks solution: to cut the Official bank rate 0.25% again today!

only difference is iron ore vs oil but either way looks like economic disaster dead ahead but hell at least we’re all gonna be in it together :o
DYOR

#13 Karma on 05.04.15 at 6:23 pm

And check out Germany!

Up 35 bps or so in 12 days.

http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/germany-10-year-bond-yield

#14 Smoking Man on 05.04.15 at 6:26 pm

Can you imagine if Cowtown goes communist. Then in the Fall another unless teacher who’s never had a real job or business gets to drive.

Time to make perpetrations for an exodus. NYC are you ready for the Smoking Man.

#15 ALBERTASTROPHE on 05.04.15 at 6:28 pm

The NDP surge continues unabated.

Of 6 polls last week, not even 1 gave the NDP less than 37% of the vote. Today, EKOS reports that lead is growing, now 22 points over the PCs (By contrast, Wildrose had about half that polling lead before the last election’s surprise PC win)

http://www.threehundredeight.com/

People here are fed up with lying, incompetent PC leadership and financial mismanagement.

My friend, Washed Up Lawyer, you might want to get your chequebook ready to settle our wee gamble here :)

Don’t worry, it’s only $20, it won’t feel like you got kneed in the face – that’s only for Alberta PC cabinet ministers who try to beat the crap out of their wives.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/judge-lifts-publication-ban-in-legal-dispute-between-jonathan-denis-and-estranged-wife-breanna-palmer

(Why are conservatives all across this country such Neanderthal retards when it comes to women?)

So many good reasons to turf the PCs here, it now seems unstoppable.

Sadly, this will not do anything to deal with the real estate and economic melt, but at least we’ll be able to face reality and see where the skeletons are hiding after 44 years of undemocratic, fascistic, economic incompetence and leadership stupidity.

Tomorrow, this backwards, insular society finally joins the 20th century. Then we just have to work on getting into the 21st.

#16 Muttley O'Toole on 05.04.15 at 6:29 pm

Well, what will the world look like when all of this blows sky high?
Whatever, I’ll bet it won’t be pretty!

#17 van guy on 05.04.15 at 6:31 pm

Families making 72k a year in Van aren’t buying these homes. Its a lot of shady money here Garth. Check out how many dispensaries have opened in the last year. These are drug dealers opening these shops. And they are allowed to sell legally. That’s awesome for a criminal. Sell drugs legally, and only take cash for payment. Oh ya, if u don’t want to sell weed, u can grow it legally too. No problem, BC allows it.

#18 Yogi Bear on 05.04.15 at 6:31 pm

Can we export some of that Calgary price decline to Vancouver please? It’s getting annoying being the only person I know here not crazy about real estate.

#19 Juan on 05.04.15 at 6:31 pm

Ok Garth, I got it!
The Canadian Real state market is overvalued, now my question is how I can profit from it?
Are you aware of any way to short the Canadian real state market?

#20 slam on 05.04.15 at 6:32 pm

I’m in Vancouver and a few of my colleagues have been discussing about leaving the city to find affordable housing for their family. With unemployment so low in the US, is this a good time to look for work and a home there?

Which cities in US or Canada have affordable homes (relative to the average income) and also a good to raise a family?

#21 greyhound on 05.04.15 at 6:37 pm

Garth often speaks of avoiding the “Zero Guy” and gloom and doom web sites in general. As a public service we can point out that today’s entry at Business Insider could take the cake: http://www.businessinsider.com/jay-walker-sohn-presentation-2015-5

#22 HD on 05.04.15 at 6:38 pm

BMO Van Marathon result: 3 hrs 54 mins.

Not as good as M. Carney ;)

Admittedly, it’s a bit of a set back as I was aiming for a much faster time. Humbling experience nonetheless.

Calgary housing market? Meh….the balanced portfolio is doing great and is good enough for me.

Best,

HD

#23 Randy Randerson on 05.04.15 at 6:39 pm

I’ve been getting ready for the shitstorm that’s our Canadian RE bubble. Pass the popcorn while I sit on the sidelines laughing at all the people, who for the past years bragged about their RE gains, left holding the bags with their negative equities in their houses.

#24 Obvious Truth on 05.04.15 at 6:41 pm

Change like you are seeing in Alberta only happens in extreme circumstances. This shift clearly speaks to the mood and prospects of the people in a vey proud province.

The economic and social reversal sems stunning in speed and scope.

#25 Shawn Allen on 05.04.15 at 6:47 pm

Torturing the Numbers?

Housing consultant Ross Kay is all over this, as he should be. He tells me there are 192,820 houses in the city (44% of the total) that would sell today for less than the owners originally paid. And you thought real estate always goes up? Silly goose.

“If you bought the average home sold in Calgary in March of 2007,” he says, “and paid the appraised value that appeared on the property tax assessment form ($427,158) you would need to sell that home in 2015 for $478,687 just to make up of any loses caused by inflation. Unfortunately you could only expect another buyer to pay $480,122 leaving you in the hole after your selling costs were paid out. –

************************************
The assertion in paragraph 1 (44% would sell for less than the owners originally paid) is not supported by the paragraph 2 where we learn that they lose money AFTER inflation and selling costs.

In fact paragraph 2 seems to say the house would sell for more money than was paid for it.

#26 Calgary is AWESOME on 05.04.15 at 6:49 pm

The commies will be a spectacular disaster.No way in hell will they ever balance a budget. The oily guys will just shut it all down for 5 years and starve them out, even if they don’t do anything too crazy, if will be an endless sea of red ink. Then the reaction blowback in 5 years will be even wilder.

But it sure looks like the a giant NDP finger to the oil bastards.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/

#27 james on 05.04.15 at 6:50 pm

Ah, times were good up North, for a while. More and more trucks appearing for auction.

Imagine paying 75k+ for a truck that was designed for use in deserts (e.g., arizona):

http://wwwa.autotrader.ca/a/Ford/F-150/Camrose/Alberta/5_22593543_20120307095503537/?ursrc=hl&showcpo=ShowCPO&orup=5_15_723

My guess is that most of these trucknutz types have zero in the way of savings.

#28 Linda on 05.04.15 at 6:50 pm

#14 Smoking Man

“Can you imagine if Cowtown goes communist. Then in the Fall another unless teacher who’s never had a real job or business gets to drive. ”

Oh, you mean just like that neocon douchebag Mike Harris?

Mikey, a failed teacher and ski-instructor, made the dumbest economic decisions in Ontario for over a century, and we’ll be paying for them for decades. Enjoy those foreign tolls on the 407!

Rachel Notley has actually had a pretty competent and effective legal career, in contrast.

You just don’t want….women in power, right?

Don’t let the truth get in the way of your rigid, idiotic fake counter-ideology, my confident little smoking man.

‘The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence.’

(Charles Bukowski)

#29 Big English on 05.04.15 at 6:55 pm

Was in Point Grey area of Vancouver on Sunday visiting family. There were a lot of for sale signs, didn’t see any sold. Maybe some on the West side want to cash out. Wonder where the wealthy buyer are?

Driving back to East Vancouver, lots of Sold signs. Greater fools maybe, or those who got out early.

#30 Blacksheep on 05.04.15 at 6:56 pm

Sooo…glad I bought back into the market, almost a year and half ago now.

When Van goes up, so does the Valley.

As stupid as this endless RE climb is, it feels a hell of allot better to be long for the ride, than be left at the curb.

You roll your dice and ya take your chances.

#31 Bottoms_Up on 05.04.15 at 7:03 pm

Trudeau comes out with a progressive policy for subsidizing families with young children….I like it.

Finally a politician waking up to the realities of being middle class and raising children.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-propose-middle-income-tax-cut-new-child-benefit/article24241118/

#32 cowtown cowboy on 05.04.15 at 7:04 pm

Not sure where your numbers are from but here is my example:
Bought current house, 2100sf, single detached in 2006 for 390k, in a newer SW neighborhood

Currently worth approx. 625-650k, in fact the neighbor 1 house over just listed, I’ll update the sale when i know more.

#33 Mike in the Okanagan on 05.04.15 at 7:08 pm

Working in Alberta this week thinking about the election. Hard to believe this province may actually vote NDP.

I’m glad folks in BC remembered how well that worked out for us there when they voted the Liberals back in on the last election.

Who do you think pays for all the goodies the NDP promise? Oh yeah those evil corporations and wicked rich. Tax them into the ground and see how that works out.

Tangerine Dream? More like Tangerine Nightmare.

#34 Victoria Real Estate Update on 05.04.15 at 7:10 pm

In Calgary’s last price bust (mid 07 to early 09) we saw SFH prices fall almost 20%. Lucky for many who bought near the peak then, Calgary’s quickly falling housing market was rescued by emergency interest rates that were suddenly brought in.

There will be no such intervention as prices fall this time in Calgary. Canada already has emergency rates.

This time it will be the real deal. Many will learn that real estate does go down and can stay down for a long time.

#35 ANON on 05.04.15 at 7:14 pm

“Canada’s realtors, central bank and government say it’s different here. Almost all economists, in varying degrees, say we’re nuts. There are hedge funds betting against us, plus warnings of doom flowing from international monetary bodies, ratings agencies and sharp people who lived through the US disaster.”

Surprised? You should not be. Nemo propheta in patria sua. “It’s always different here” goes both ways, I think the TAE team has figured it out first. People won’t ever listen until it is much too late.

#36 Calgary stocks on 05.04.15 at 7:20 pm

I wonder how the stocks of Calgary/Alberta-based public companies do in the resource sector? Are they any better off than RE?

#37 Italians love real estate on 05.04.15 at 7:25 pm

Bill Gross , Pimco , says equity cult is dead for the next 35 years as the 35 year plus equity bull market comes to an end.

Seems not much choice to me but to buy assets , on the ground and real, that God himself is making no more of .

I fully expect this message to be deleted.

Gross said bonds were dead, shortly before they ascended. When you’re worth deleting, you’ll know. — Garth

#38 Rexx Rock on 05.04.15 at 7:33 pm

Toronto and Vancouver are in the same league as Dubai.Prices just keep going up because of high demand and speculation.Also median household in both cities are over $150,000 a year to support high prices.Lots of sold signs in Victoria,still going strong here also.

#39 Freedom First on 05.04.15 at 7:33 pm

The Canadian debt levels for all age groups of student loans, mortgages, helocs, loc, credit cards, car loans, consumer loans, payday loans, bank of mom loans/sponging, is inspiring. For the minority who choose instead to cultivate a debt free and income streams way of life, that is.

We all choose either slavery or freedom. I know I always put my own Freedom First.

#40 Squirrel meat on 05.04.15 at 7:34 pm

#27 james on 05.04.15 at 6:50 pm

Ah, times were good up North, for a while. More and more trucks appearing for auction.

Imagine paying 75k+ for a truck that was designed for use in deserts (e.g., arizona):

http://wwwa.autotrader.ca/a/Ford/F-150/Camrose/Alberta/5_22593543_20120307095503537/?ursrc=hl&showcpo=ShowCPO&orup=5_15_723

My guess is that most of these trucknutz types have zero in the way of savings.
———————————————————
Wow crazy.

I’d offer $5k !!, but only if it comes fully gased up.

These thing are everywhere in oilberta, plus the boats, and skidoos, and quads, and RVs, and timeshares all paid with HELOCs.

#41 Yuus bin Haad on 05.04.15 at 7:36 pm

In 1990 Ontario, after the NDP formed a majority government, Don Harron said he woke up and learned that his cleaning lady was now his MPP. HA!

#42 George S on 05.04.15 at 7:48 pm

This is a comment on yesterday’s article, I read it too late to comment.
When the baby boomers started their careers even up until quite recently they were offered defined benefit pensions as part of their compensation package for taking the job. In many cases (such as the entire federal public service) they had no choice between an employer administrated pension plan and a self administered pension plan, they had to accept what was offered. From the first day of work both the employer and the employee knew exactly how much their retirement pension would be on whichever day they retired off into the future. The cost of these DB pension plans to the employee are very high because they are very high and include CPP premiums too because CPP is deducted off the DB pension plan at age 65 (at least the federal public service one)
During the year when you could get a up to a 17.5% annually compounded return for a 5 year GIC (early 80’s)or when even crappy mutual funds were getting net double digit returns (90’s) we were repeatedly told that “no, you can’t convert your DB pension plan to a self directed one, the plan was designed with a low (4%) rate of return in mind, that way in the low return years the plan will remain solvent”.
However, during the high return years instead of making contributions as normal, the employers didn’t make any contributions at all (even though the employees did their share) and in the case of the federal public service pension plan the employer harvested $30 billion of “excess” from the DB plan (about $75,000 per member) and under contributed $18 billion for a total of $48 billion as of about the turn of the century. Other employers harvested various amounts of “excess” as determined by actuaries, supposed financial “experts” with no consequences for getting things so incredibly wrong.
For some reason on this blog and others and all over in the media people with DB pension plans that they have contributed large amounts of money to are viewed as some sort of entitled villains as compared to people who have contributed roughly the same amount of money to self administered pension plans and get roughly the same pension.
THere is a very big benefit to a large group pension plan. It is all based on average life expectancy which hasn’t changed much over the years. A large group DB pension plan only has to count on paying you pension for 24 or 25 years if you retire at age 60 and you have to allow for living well into your 90’s with a self administered plan. There is a huge saving there. in addition DB pension plans are like an annuity so that when you die all your capital is gone except for a little bit for funeral expenses. Most self administered plans like you talk about here have a huge amount of capital left at the end for a massive estate.
All the cities and municipalities that have gone bankrupt in the US are bankrupt because of gross mismanagement and investment into fraudulently AAA rated securities by corrupt securities rating agencies with no consequences for getting things so incredibly wrong.
The problem with any pension plan is that there is just so much money involved that they are a magnet for criminals. Look how the real estate agents somehow have people convinced that real estate is a good investment for their retirement. People who wouldn’t even consider investing in anything except GIC’s are leveraged 20X in a volatile investment that involves their whole life.

We should be educating our children in financial matters from preschool on. It is very important and is completely ignored in the high school curriculum. When you have a finance minister in a province that joyously proclaims a balanced budget with a $100 million surplus and in the same breath tells how he borrowed $700M and increased the provincial debt by $1.5 B to do it and people actually accepted that BS and didn’t immediately publicly ridicule and dismiss him from his job you know that there is something really wrong in the world.

#43 Brian Ripley on 05.04.15 at 7:52 pm

“The first group points out various metrics suggesting something is inherently unsustainable, while the second reiterates that this time, it is different.”

Well perhaps it is different because a new generation of participants have been inured to negative yields.

But I just updated my interest rate charts http://www.chpc.biz/

… and on the Yield chart, nominal rates have turned up and the TSX real estate index (cash real estate proxy) Y/Y momentum plot line has put in a sharp spike and dramatic reversal à la 1Q 2010.

#44 Linda on 05.04.15 at 7:53 pm

Reasons for voting anything other than PC
1) if you are wondering whose fault this is, look in the mirror (Prentice scolds Alberta for fiscal mess)
2) Math is hard (Prentice to Notley during leader’s debate when he overstated how much the NDP would raise corporate taxes). Note to Prentice – potentially pissing off 50% of your voting base might not have been the smartest thing to do, math wise….
3) Sky Palace (aka Alison Redford) but ALL the PC’s knew all about it & didn’t damn it until she was turfed
4) Committees not meeting but being paid for attending a meeting that never occurred – then refusing to pay back the money (PC’s) – Redford made them pay it back, which likely sharpened the knives when she got turfed later for her own pecuniary peccadilloes
5) Kananaskis golf course gets over 9 million in flood mitigation payments this year alone while ordinary Albertans are still waiting to hear if any DRIP money comes their way two years after the 2013 flood. Golf course is operated by PC ‘buddies’….. Payments suspended for now, but will doubtless resume if the PC’s get back in
6) No money for enhanced audits at Alberta AG office, or adding to investigation of deaths of children in care (roughly one child dead per week for the past 8 years or so; as per Alberta government ‘audit’ 50% of those children would have died ‘in any case from natural causes’). Don’t know how others think on this issue, but seems to me a 50% death rate at say the Alberta Children’s hospital would raise one heck of a hue & cry. If these children in care are so ill, why the heck are they not in that hospital getting the medical care they need?
7) Budget bringing in a ‘health’ tax, which doesn’t get earmarked for health. No sir, that there sum goes into general revenues. Call a tax a tax, don’t try to hide it by calling it a ‘health’ tax.
8) Calling an election a year before they have to, at a cost of some $26 (lowest figure) to $30 (highest figure) million dollars. Yet AG, cancer centre, kids in care dying can’t be funded. Oh & before I forget, calling that election without bothering to repeal their own law saying to do so is not legal. So our PC’s are out & out lawbreakers, but hey, its the PC’s & trust us to not do anything we’d throw you in jail for doing….

#45 Linda on 05.04.15 at 8:01 pm

Hey, two Linda’s on this blog – could be confusing but as long as I know what I wrote (not yet senile, I hope!) all is well.

Thought regarding NDP’s – IF they get in – it ain’t over till the fat lady sings & voters can change in a heartbeat these days – if there is any real opposition & it turns out to be the first ever minority gov’t in Alberta – I am confident that the opposition will question every single line in any NDP budget being tabled. So maybe for once we might get social conscience AND fiscal prudence at the same time. Hey, its o.k. to dream about this stuff!

#46 bigtown on 05.04.15 at 8:02 pm

Bill Gross writes in his Janus newsletter that the serious gains made in the last 35 years in bonds and stocks will not occur any time soon…so be prepared to see the markets as they are now showing themselves earning low single digits.

It is PLAYOFF time and the Montreal Canadians are in my prayers. Please Lord I thank-you in advance the Canadians made it to the Tampa Bay series and if you can forgive Mr. Prust’s most offensive penalties I implore you to give the Habs …HOPE.

Of course the NHL playoff season would be of little interest without our traditional commenters: Grapes Cherry and Don McLain….on Sunday Grapes appearing as dapper as ever(his outfits give me pride in being Canadian and showing real grit and individuality) was wearing an ensemble including a white shirt and black tie which screamed PASTOR and the jacket was the best. Cherry’s jacket was the representation of the Tampa Bay Lightning manner of execution. The jacket was the colour of YELLOW JACKETS and was a play on the Tampa Bay SWARMING the Price net and stinging those Habs over and over.

God will determine the Stanley Cup but Tampa Bay is lit up like some devil on a mission.

#47 Chaddywack on 05.04.15 at 8:14 pm

A guy at work today told me that apparently the “Chinese currency has risen so high lately and our dollar has fallen that most Chinese who were looking to buy one house in Vancouver are now able to buy two” (this apparently comes from his relatives in China)……he also said that I should “snap up at least a condo before I can’t even buy that anymore”

He owns a condo in North Van thankfully for him :)

I know he probably just wants the best for me (he is a really good guy), but I think I’ll keep renting in Vancouver.

#48 AK on 05.04.15 at 8:14 pm

Some more, not so good news…

Golden years not so as seniors file for insolvency with bigger debts:

#49 Retired Boomer - WI on 05.04.15 at 8:19 pm

Well, they say the ‘death off equities is at hand,” ala Bill the Gross.

Since we was 100% wrong last time there is a 50% chance he can go for a double bogey. There problem with prognostications is that they involve the future.

In the meantime, businesses are making money, that balanced portfolio keeps rising up, and Canuck Real Estate is deflating in value in most sectors.

Oil is less in demand, while clean water, clean air, and fairness seem to be in vogue. Is that such an awful agenda? I don’t think so, but then I’m an idiot…

As for Smoking Man going NYC, careful there Ashman, they have seen ALL the best hustles, you could be a lump on 52nd St.

#50 omg the original on 05.04.15 at 8:25 pm

Cowtown market has gone full throttle reverse. May has started off in disaster territory – with the average price faded by 8.2%.
———————————

Finally seeing a bit of reality setting in in Alberta.

The job loss in Calgary dwarfs anything that Toronto or Vancovuer would see in a plain vanilla Canadian recession.

Prices in Cowtown should be down 20 to 30% to be a true correction towards something that resembles house prices befitting a small, isolated, one industry town.

House prices seem to be the reverse of equities – house prices go up fast but come down slow.

#51 RayofLight on 05.04.15 at 8:28 pm

Ontario Seniors are the fastest growing segment filing for insolvency. How does anyone really recoup from this at this age? Younger people can change direction, start being financially smart, and through time recover. What does a senior do? Their window of opportunity has closed. Some may not even realize yet they are in such trouble. A lack of a little forethought and strategy 30 years ago is now making its presence known.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/growing-number-of-seniors-account-for-ontarios-insolvency-filings-study/article24

#52 Cici on 05.04.15 at 8:28 pm

#28 Linda

Ouch…good post tonight…I think you kicked SM’s where it really hurts.

But he’s probably already downed too much JD to come up with a coherent response this evening…It’ll have to wait ’til tomorrow.

#53 Cory on 05.04.15 at 8:31 pm

Yes Calgary real estate is on the decline. Finally! Financial illiteracy abound everywhere is apparent when people whine about the TFSA limits at 10G’S and that it only benefits the “rich” which is a pathetic argument and plain ole’ dumb. Savers (not the rich) the prudent responsible people in this country, have been subsidizing these real estate dummies for years now by “emergency” interest rates alone. It forces those who would rather invest in fixed income instruments for example to take more risk than they would normally and without the same security that a one would provide.

Anyways, I will go on record now. PC’s will win a majority in Alberta tomorrow maybe 65 seats plus/minus 3 and the NDP will make gains but only enough to be official opposition.

Mark this post.

#54 Brydle604 on 05.04.15 at 8:36 pm

More seniors, swamped by credit card debt, file for insolvency

http://www.thestar.com/business/personal_finance/2015/05/04/more-seniors-swamped-by-credit-card-debt-file-for-insolvency.html

#55 Daisy Mae on 05.04.15 at 8:38 pm

#9 Henry: “Actually the zero guy got it from Visual Capitalist. — Garth”

***************

Damn, you’re good! LOL

#56 Dom on 05.04.15 at 8:38 pm

Could anyone tell me.

If I transfer equities in kind from a non registered account in to my TFSA do I have to use book value or account balance. My non registered account is showing a small loss at the moment. Thanks

Market value. — Garth

#57 MikeM on 05.04.15 at 8:52 pm

“The first group points out various metrics suggesting something is inherently unsustainable, while the second reiterates that this time, it is different.”

OR…

The first group consumes a steady diet of cherry picked ‘metrics’ devoid of true context. The select ‘metrics’ are nearly always juxtaposed to hypothetical, absolute worst case outcomes of owning RE. It’s never mentioned that should any of the scenarios actually materialize, we’d all have bigger problems then making the next payment. The purpose behind negative outlooks is to scare senseless anyone on the fence about purchasing RE and keep them in the rent and paper game, for good reason: all those mortgages in the 416 and the 604 aren’t going to just pay themselves..

The second group knows it does not have all the answers nor does it concern itself with any one set of ‘metrics’. They realize that few physical things in life, besides a home to call your own, are actually worth owning. That Canada is a wonderful country, where hundreds of thousands arrive each year. An untold and unreported number that invest…That in the 21st century globalized world, this time, it’s actually more of the same…

#58 chapter 9 on 05.04.15 at 8:53 pm

#15 ALBERTASTROPHE

People here are fed up with lying, incompetent PC leadership and financial mismanagement.

Very true, under the leadership of Premier Stelmach and Alison Redford they over spent by $22 billion and put the province in the situation it is today. But one only has to look to our neighbor to the east. Manitoba’s population in 2014 was just a little over 1.2 million people in comparison the city of Calgary had 1.1 million. The NDP have managed to drive this province into the ground with a current debt of $20.4 BILLION.
“Be careful for what you wish for”

#59 Linda on 05.04.15 at 9:04 pm

I almost forgot-

8) They give us free flu shots, I’ve had three this year, but Stateside pharmacies are giving $20 gift cards!

#60 Smoking Man on 05.04.15 at 9:04 pm

DELETED

#61 Shawn Allen on 05.04.15 at 9:11 pm

False Prophets of Decline

#62 Porsche on 05.04.15 at 9:20 pm

Prices dropping in Langley B.C.

Wherever that is from Van

#63 Drill Baby Drill on 05.04.15 at 9:20 pm

Truck Nutz !!
I like Truck Nutz. I jacked up the rear end of my Kia Optima so I could hang a pair. They are sweet a real status symbol.

#64 Smoking Man on 05.04.15 at 9:22 pm

Just as well I couldn’t POST on LinkedIn, didn’t think it was that bad, obviously it was, quick delete in caps.

Thank God I have a good editor.

Obviously your dictionary in your head is rock solid,, I had to google those cool words. First I’ve heard of em or saw them.

But What DELETED (no reason)?

Ok, Linda you got alot to say tonight.. Bravo..

#65 omg the original on 05.04.15 at 9:23 pm

Bill Gross , Pimco , says equity cult is dead for the next 35 years as the 35 year plus equity bull market comes to an end.
—————–

Now I have not seen the source quote so likely he put a lot of maybe’s around this statement.

….but I am always amazed at why obviously smart people make such stupid statements

…..I was just a dumb, shit-head economist and even I figured out that correctly forecasting 6 months out is just pure random luck ….. claiming you can forecast 35 years out is simply playing to the media.

But seems to have worked for Bill, he got some headlines and suckered some of the more gullible.

#66 fisheman on 05.04.15 at 9:23 pm

Just when you think that it couldn’t get any better out here on the left coast, sure enough it turns around & does. I figured R/E peaked for now & even if it hasn’t it’s just too scary. Apparently so do a lot of Chinese. But the cash just keeps pouring in. They wanna buy. Any Boomer with a cash flow positive business & especially involving the ocean is excited. Its time for their lotto ticket to get drawn; another chance in case you missed it on the R/E draw. Too bad we had to wait till we got old to get rich, but I guess that’s better than the alternative.

#67 tundra pete on 05.04.15 at 9:25 pm

Flew into Edmonton last night. Normally most hotels here will have full parking lots. Not the case. Lots of empty hotel parking lots. The only full one was the Ritchie Bros. auction yard. Acres and acres of equiptment on the block. Great place to be if you were opening up an oil sands developement.

I think the tories are toast and the new democrats will get old real fast. Will be interesting to see what plays out.

Glad I am flying out in the morning.

#68 Drill Baby Drill on 05.04.15 at 9:25 pm

Dear Pathetic Blog ; I went on the Alberta NDP website to view the resumes of the NDP candidates especially those in the Edmonton area. The bulk of them are stay at home moms, union shop stewards and assorted teachers, nurses and social workers (my wife is one). There are no bankers, lawyers, oil and gas execs or analysts of any kind. If the NDP win a majority and they try and discuss business with the international money people no one will pick up the phone.

#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.04.15 at 9:27 pm

Yo!
North Burnaby!
If your reading and comprehension skills are as bad as I surmise.

Garth just said,
Its NOT a good time to buy……..

#70 countrymusicfan on 05.04.15 at 9:29 pm

LOL, Linda @ 28

You owned Smoking Man tonight – nailed his sorry act to the wall.

Bravo. Keep it up.

#71 joblo on 05.04.15 at 9:29 pm

so no difference…..
all NDP bad
oooga booga

#72 ANON on 05.04.15 at 9:30 pm

“It’s never mentioned that should any of the scenarios actually materialize, we’d all have bigger problems then making the next payment.”

It is implied. We’re not exactly all inept.

#73 Smoking Man on 05.04.15 at 9:31 pm

#52 Cici on 05.04.15 at 8:28 pm
#28 Linda

Ouch…good post tonight…I think you kicked SM’s where it really hurts.

But he’s probably already downed too much JD to come up with a coherent response this evening…It’ll have to wait ’til tomorrow.
…….

Cici, haven’t you figured it out yet, I live to get bashed. I love Linda now.

But you would have loved my deleted post too. I discovered some words on google, that, we’ll, they sounded Alien like, but a bit to much for a family blog.

It’s going in book you and Linda will never buy. Good thing I saved it.

Your right about the JD, I’m figured, your getting the UCC thing.

#74 SWL1976 on 05.04.15 at 9:32 pm

Trophy house hunters – Now that’s good.

My set up of living on the coast and working in the Tiaga works well for me, for now. Not ideal for most but it does have its perks, such as working with people from all across the country. Today I learned that the ice burgs are way early on the east coast.

I also got to have a conversation with a coworker who mentioned he just moved. I knew he rented in Edmonton area from previous conversations we had so I asked about his new place since there was others around. He said it’s great 2g a month and the house beside him is for sale for 875k. He also mentioned his landlord is not making a cent on him being there. Obviously he knows the basic fundamentals of real estate. A good one liner he said that I enjoyed was… ‘Anyone who tells you real estate is a good investment usually only has one investment. Real estate’

Anyways after he left there was a ‘gee renting sounds pretty good’ from another

The tide is definitely going out in Alberta

I also learned something else yesterday

JADE (Joint Assistant for Development and Execution)
HELM (Homeland Eradication of Local Militants)
15 – 2015

Draw your own conclusions on that one

#75 Surprise! | Realties.ca on 05.04.15 at 9:36 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/05/04/surprise-11/ […]

#76 Ripped on 05.04.15 at 9:40 pm

#62 Porsche

Langley is 50km from Vancouver and it was on the news tonight.

A person that paid 180K 6 years ago for a condo would be lucky to get 140K now.

Developers are lowering prices and free GST, etc…

#77 rawdiswar on 05.04.15 at 9:48 pm

Taunt all you want Ontarioans, but the job scene here doesn’t look all that much better than what’s happening in Alberta. Especially outside of the GTA, not that Wynne ever leaves the city to see it. Maybe when all the money gets spent on infrastructure she’ll be able to take a ride out the wasteland that the rest of Ontario has and is becoming. The knowledge economy doesn’t replace manufacturing, and that was the backbone of the middle class. Pretty soon the middle class is going to be something kids read about in a history book, that is if the teacher’s unions aren’t still on strike to teach it.

Real Estate is just the harbinger.

#78 Brian on 05.04.15 at 9:52 pm

And yet I payed $135.9/L for gas today.

wtf?

#79 Washed Up Lawyer on 05.04.15 at 9:55 pm

I wish I could tarry tonight on the blog and comment section but I am desperately trying to board the underground railway to Sask. from Fort McMurray.

I hope watermelons are in stock at the Sobey’s in Kindersley so I can wear one on my head to disguise the fact that I am a foreigner.

Farewell Athabaska. Making my way to Kenora.

#80 Lorne on 05.04.15 at 9:56 pm

“Yikes. The commies haven’t even taken over Alberta yet,

…………
Very weak attempt at humour, Garth, especially since some of the less educated in our population actually believe this…how sad!

#81 Lorne on 05.04.15 at 10:01 pm

“The commies will be a spectacular disaster.No way in hell will they ever balance a budget. The oily guys will just shut it all down for 5 years and starve them out, even if they don’t do anything too crazy, if will be an endless sea of red ink. Then the reaction blowback in 5 years will be even wilder.”
………
You just might be surprised!!(And just how have your economic wizards handled the budgets in Alberta over the last 44 years?)
You really believe big corporations making pretty nice money, would ensure they made very little money for 5 years, to try to ensure a change of government back to their buddies??

#82 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 05.04.15 at 10:02 pm

I’m starting to feel sorry for Alberta.

http://www.ecanadanow.com/alberta-earthorm-invasion-how-you-can-help/94241/

#83 Lorne on 05.04.15 at 10:02 pm

#53 Cory
Anyways, I will go on record now. PC’s will win a majority in Alberta tomorrow maybe 65 seats plus/minus 3 and the NDP will make gains but only enough to be official opposition.

Mark this post.
…….
Look forward to hearing from you late tomorrow!

#84 Smoking Man on 05.04.15 at 10:11 pm

#70 countrymusicfan on 05.04.15 at 9:29 pm
LOL, Linda @ 28

You owned Smoking Man tonight – nailed his sorry act to the wall.

Bravo. Keep it up.
…….

I say we nominate Linda for poster of the year, I’m on the ground in the fetal position, growling in pain. She delivered a crushing kick, I may never recover from the kick that changed my Octave tone to high, I can now finaly get a job at Starbucks.

#85 4 AM Sunrise on 05.04.15 at 10:17 pm

It’s been said that seniors should die broke. Either give away what you want to give away and avoid estate taxes, or spend it all on yourself and let the those greedy varmints/ex-heirs fend for themselves. Looks like some seniors out there are timing the “die broke” thing too early.

I spoke to a financially astute young man who recently graduated from high school. He polled his friends about investing and the results are: 50% “Wall Street is evil, stock market can’t be trusted, keep your savings in cash” and 50% “dude, what stock should I buy in my TFSA?”

#86 TurnerNation on 05.04.15 at 10:19 pm

#10 div. plays on this trend might include LIQ.TO, Big rock brewery and RUM.DB (debenture of penny stock RUM.V)

#87 Bottoms_Up on 05.04.15 at 10:23 pm

More like $6,000 a month forever if you invest it. — Garth
—————————————————————–
And that’s exactly why people should be fully invested in the markets. It underscores one of your major theses, fear not the markets, but be fully terrified of running out of money.

#88 mayor on 05.04.15 at 10:23 pm

So Vancouvers Mayor is selling his home…. cashing out more like it. Hes in with the real estate moguls and he has a inside scoup

#89 Joe Schmoe on 05.04.15 at 10:26 pm

#78 Brian

I think you got hosed!

#90 Joe Schmoe on 05.04.15 at 10:29 pm

I wish people would keep their politics away from an entertaining financial blog.

Speculating on what/why’s of fiscal policy is interesting to read, but the senseless factless blather is depressing to read.

http://www.cbc.ca for all your political blithering….it’s where all the experts hang out.

I am voting for Bill because he likes dogs and has a hot wife.

#91 Ex-Cowtown on 05.04.15 at 10:35 pm

#26Calgary is AWESOME on 05.04.15 at 6:49 pm

The commies will be a spectacular disaster.No way in hell will they ever balance a budget. The oily guys will just shut it all down for 5 years and starve them out, even if they don’t do anything too crazy, if will be an endless sea of red ink. Then the reaction blowback in 5 years will be even wilder.

But it sure looks like the a giant NDP finger to the oil bastards.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

When Trudeau’s pappy gave the West the finger in the 70’s and the oil patch the bone in the early eighties Alberta could blame someone else. Now they can only blame themselves. Prentice was right; just look in the mirror. Never politically popular, but right just the same.

Unfortunately King Ralph’s “eastern creeps and bums” have now taken over the last best place and have run it into the ground. I lament for what was lost and what will be lost.

Ironically the Communist Chinese are about to get a taste of what freedom can do; the freedom of Albertans to be complete dumb-a$$e$ and elect NDP. The commies will take major losses across the board on their oilpatch investments. The NDP will be as stupid as someone ordering a PPV movie at home, disliking the show and then pouring pop all over the seats to show their displeasure.

I think that Alaska is what BC would be like if it was run by Albertans; great place to live and room to grow. Now we’ll get to see the New Alberta, which be Venezuela of the North. Stock up on toilet paper and condoms!

#92 Lee on 05.04.15 at 10:36 pm

Are 3x efts too risky for the small investor?

I prefer wing-walking. Safer. — Garth

#93 Calgary is AWESOME on 05.04.15 at 10:37 pm

#81 Lorne on 05.04.15 at 10:01 pm

“The commies will be a spectacular disaster.No way in hell will they ever balance a budget. The oily guys will just shut it all down for 5 years and starve them out, even if they don’t do anything too crazy, if will be an endless sea of red ink. Then the reaction blowback in 5 years will be even wilder.”
………
You just might be surprised!!(And just how have your economic wizards handled the budgets in Alberta over the last 44 years?)
You really believe big corporations making pretty nice money, would ensure they made very little money for 5 years, to try to ensure a change of government back to their buddies??
———————————————-
For sure the PCs have really squandered the oil bucks.. just crazy.. That we don’t have a fund like Alaska is pretty scandalous.. folks are just pissed. Still hard to believe NDP pulling out a majority but change there is going to be… there won’t be a slide back like last time with REDFraud.

I think the corps will do anything they can to get rid of the NDP if they get in power.. they’ll simply invest elsewhere for the next 5 years.
Five years of RED ink coming up. Hope someone will send us transfer payments. We did our bit.

#94 Fuzzy Camel on 05.04.15 at 10:40 pm

Garth, Linda, Smoking Man, it all comes down to trust. Do you trust our government? Are they altruistic? Historically government will throw it’s own people under the bus for their own gain.

No conspiracy theories, but if you think the government is concerned with helping you get ahead in life, you are in for a rude awakening.

Poloz quite clearly stated the housing bubble is a side effect of the low interest policy needed to keep Canada afloat.

Flu shots are proven quackery, and side effects unknown, sounds legit.

Wynne is in it for her socialist government friends. She will steal every penny possible to keep her smug teacher friends rolling in dough.

Ontario will go broke when rates go up. Until then, enjoy the booming debt bubble economy. Also, don’t surprised if Wynne steals your bank account to keep the government running.

You’ve elected a socialist who doesn’t understand the concept of hard work or private property.

#95 Squatter on 05.04.15 at 10:45 pm

#91 Ex-Cowtown
Unfortunately King Ralph’s “eastern creeps and bums” have now taken over the last best place and have run it into the ground. I lament for what was lost and what will be lost.
————————————
You are a disgusting redneck.

#96 tory liberal ndp on 05.04.15 at 10:47 pm

The slight difference is that which one I despise more at any given time.

#97 Bottoms_Up on 05.04.15 at 10:47 pm

#20 slam on 05.04.15 at 6:32 pm
———————————————
You could check out Barrie or Guelph, some of the average sized cities that are basically outside regular commuting distance to Toronto, therefore helping to keep prices in check.

#98 Calgary is AWESOME on 05.04.15 at 10:48 pm

#91 Ex-Cowtown on 05.04.15 at 10:35 pm

Ironically the Communist Chinese are about to get a taste of what freedom can do; the freedom of Albertans to be complete dumb-a$$e$ and elect NDP. The commies will take major losses across the board on their oilpatch investments. The NDP will be as stupid as someone ordering a PPV movie at home, disliking the show and then pouring pop all over the seats to show their displeasure.

Now we’ll get to see the New Alberta, which be Venezuela of the North. Stock up on toilet paper and condoms!
————————————————–
There is gonna be a lot of RED baths… the PCs are are just so burnt out.. have been for years now.. and people are just pissed. They have been running deficits for years now, with $100 oil, burning through the rainy day fund which is now gone…

There is just no way the NDP will be able to balance the budget…… the oil companies will just dig in for 5 years … buy each other out for a while and wait…. watching the commies squirm… til they find Klein #2 to come back as the butcher

#99 Habs76-79 on 05.04.15 at 10:51 pm

With all the gibberish and never ending mumbo jumbo by all too many talking heads, in govt. , economists, banking, realty and media it all has me thinking…

Back in the day of the railway caboose. The conductor back there say on a 140-150 car coal train, all looks well, feels well as the train moves forward. But little does he know that the locomotives have derailed and the cars are falling in line, in suit. No matter what the caboose conductor thinks, feels, or believes, in time his caboose will be a part of the train wreak.

Nothing prevents REALITY in real life folks. Talking heads can ignore it but reality can BITE and it will for LA LA LAND CANADANAVIA!

#100 prairie person on 05.04.15 at 10:52 pm

In spite of the real estate agent from Arizona dissing buyers in Victoria and promoting the unlikely possibility of young people buying in the US, house prices have been stable and in the more desirable neighbourhoods (Fairfield, Oak Bay,James Bay) have been going up. Houses on the peninsula have been falling in price. They are no longer fashionable, the young people who bought there years ago have children that are grown up and now are empty nesters wanting back into the city, require a commute to work, etc. At the same time, three adjacent lots just off the Gorge that were up for sale for a long time have been purchased, one house is complete, one is half finished and the third is just begun. A new condo development is being completed nearby. The developers may take a bath. Subtrades might not get paid and will go bankrupt. It has happened before. But development is steady, employment is steady for the trades. Certainly, the developers in Victoria seem confident they will sell the properties they are building and make a profit. No sign of the Alberta effect, at least not yet.

#101 Nagraj on 05.04.15 at 10:53 pm

“hyperion to a satyr”

A smart, handsome, young and confident Justin walked into a Chinese restaurant today, said “Watch me, folks!”, pulled out a nailgun, aimed it at that fat-lipped teletubby’s ratty toupe and pulled the trigger. Bullseye.

“hyperion to a satyr”

A smart, good-lookin’ and confident woman walked up behind this presumably presidential-lookin’ Prentice playing pizza baker, and Gretel-like shoved him into the oven. Chorus: Ding dong the phony’s dead.

What’s not to understand here?

(By the way, another thing fraught with risk and an object of morbid delight for those who like disaster movies is the SPX. “SPX Reverts to the Mean”, coming to a big screen near you, don’t miss it!)

#102 Hot Albertan Money on 05.04.15 at 10:54 pm

Has the NDP ever fixed anything?

#103 Capt. Obvious on 05.04.15 at 10:57 pm

Garth, if the Liberals were to win the next Canadian general election and were to follow through on JT’s promise to cancel the TFSA limit increase, would this year’s increase to the 10k limit stick and next year’s revert?

You don’t need to worry about it. — Garth

#104 Marco on 05.04.15 at 10:58 pm

@Ex-Cowtown

“Ironically the Communist Chinese are about to get a taste of what freedom can do”

I wish the media and everyone else would quit referring to China as being Communist.
China is not Communist. Marx is rolling in his grave.

Cheers.

#105 Holcomb Shafetly on 05.04.15 at 11:00 pm

So if NDP gets in tomorrow in the Wild West, will Oil Companies be under attack due to the likelihood of higher taxation and stricter regulation? Time to sell in May and go away for the energy investors? What do you think Garth and Smoking Man?

#106 fleabitten monkey on 05.04.15 at 11:22 pm

#38 Rexx R – where are you getting your median household incomes from for TO and Van over $150K??? Would like to verify that for myself.

#107 45north on 05.04.15 at 11:28 pm

George S: However, during the high return years instead of making contributions as normal, the employers didn’t make any contributions at all (even though the employees did their share) and in the case of the federal public service pension plan the employer harvested $30 billion of “excess” from the DB plan (about $75,000 per member) and under contributed $18 billion for a total of $48 billion as of about the turn of the century.

thanks for that George S. I believe the courts upheld the Federal Government because it still guarantees the pension plan.

#108 WhiteOut on 05.04.15 at 11:32 pm

#12 DYOR on 05.04.15 at 6:23 pm
[…]

only difference is iron ore vs oil but either way looks like economic disaster dead ahead but hell at least we’re all gonna be in it together :o
DYOR

And yet Cliff’s Resources is making a real nice comeback. Go figure.

#109 WhiteOut on 05.04.15 at 11:35 pm

#5 MSM-free Zone on 05.04.15 at 6:13 pm

“…..A year ago it was all testosterone, bidding wars, a house shortage and truck nutz. Now a tough reality is sinking in – that tens of thousands of people stand an excellent chance of losing heaps of money……”
_________________________

1980 all over again (rinse and repeat…)

There’s a slight interest rate difference, don’t u think?

In 1980 I could buy a brand new trans-am then sell it 6 months later for a $2000 profit.

#110 PETER on 05.04.15 at 11:48 pm

“We now know this is the bottom for mortgage rates. We know our economy stopped growing last year.”

These two statements sound oxymoronic.

#111 Herf on 05.04.15 at 11:56 pm

#102 Hot Albertan Money

“Has the NDP ever fixed anything?”

I thought they fixed everyone’s wagon(s). Like the lyric from The Hollies’ song “King Midas in Reverse” states, everything they touch turns to dust.

#112 Entrepreneur on 05.05.15 at 12:04 am

#102 Hot Albertan Money on “Has the NDP ever fixed anything.”

You pick the least of the three evils. I would vote NDP to defeat the Conservatives and the Liberals (both have been in power too long). Time for a change.

#113 Canadian job just can't compete on 05.05.15 at 12:12 am

http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2014/07/09/chinese-purchases-of-u-s-real-estate-jump-72-as-the-bank-of-china-facilitates-money-laundering/

It’s not xenophobia or racism. It is telling it as it is. I am of Chinese descent and just can’t compete with corrupt money and crazy cheap money here and elsewher

#114 icywicy on 05.05.15 at 12:16 am

Garth

It would have been better to support your “shrinking” comment by having the girl in the pic throw ice water on the dude…

#115 pwn3d on 05.05.15 at 12:17 am

#28 Linda on 05.04.15 at 6:50 pm

‘The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence.’

Unintentional irony is the best… Must be Wynne’s wife posting with all the Harris hate. Sorry to burst your bubble but the 407 is 57% owned by CPPIB and SNC Lavalin. So every time you cash your pension cheque you can thank Mike.

Honestly does every politician have to be a teacher or a lawyer? I can’t think of two worse professions I would want running our country.

#116 Waterloo Resident on 05.05.15 at 12:18 am

I just watched a YouTube video that pretty well summarizes how Canadians are behaving in this real estate market.

In the video, a sports-car driver T-bones a minivan, totaling both cars. It was the minivan’s fault, the entire accident was recorded on a dashcam and you can see the light was green for the sportscar. The soccer-mom was distracted by her screaming kids in the back seat while she went flying right through the red light at full tilt, at which point the sportscar slammed into the side of van and right into the screaming kids. (It wasn’t pretty).

Anyways, when you are stupid and do stupid things, people get hurt, kids get killed, and lots of things are destroyed.

It was clearly obvious in the video that the van was not slowing down and the sportscar driver should have slammed on his brakes, that would have resulted in him missing the accident completely and saving 2 small lives in the process.
But instead of that, he used those 2 seconds to boost his ego and he took his hand and leaned on the horn, blasting away, and on the moment of impact the airbag exploded, ripping his hand clear off from his forearm.

People who do not have egos as large as Mt Everest and do the right thing and slow down to avoid a deadly accident are like people who don’t feel they are invincible and can slow down and NOT BUY that house so that they can avoid the coming economic accident about to happen in our real estate market.

But those people are very few, most people are simply holding on for dear life, while hurtling straight on into the side of that kid-carrying minivan. They don’t turn left, don’t turn right, don’t stop, just full speed ahead and don’t even think of trying to avoid the accident that is about to happen.

Like I’ve said a few times: YOU CAN’T FIX STUPID.

#117 Carousel on 05.05.15 at 12:23 am

It is amazing how events have turned around for Alberta. I expect BC’s real estate will just blow up eventually…. Bubble and boil to a simmer. All talk and expectations of any downturn on housing prices is anyone’s guess, just have to see what the outcome will be this September.

#118 Victoria Real Estate Update on 05.05.15 at 12:29 am

# 100 prairie person

“…house prices have been stable and in the more desirable neighbourhoods (Fairfield, Oak Bay,James Bay) have been going up.”

Proof?

Greater Victoria’s SFH average price for the first 4 months of 2015 is lower than it was in 2014 (source: Victoria’s board).

It’s possible that prices in some areas are taking a short break from the well established downtrend that has been in effect since 2010. It would be unrealistic to expect prices to go straight down.

With record-low rates, prices should be skyrocketing in Victoria and setting new all-time highs. That obviously isn’t happening.

With 2015’s rate drop by the BoC, a temporary situation has developed with sales as future sales are being pulled forward, but sales are still significantly below Victoria’s long-term average.

Lower than normal listings means that prices will be falling soon. Garth has explained why this is true several times. It has to do with home owners (potential sellers) acknowledging that prices are too high. We probably have that situation in Victoria right now.

What we have is an dramatically underperforming housing market. It’s been like that for most of the last decade.

Consider what’s happened with prices in other Canadian cities. In Hamilton, for example, prices are up almost 50% since 2008, while prices in Victoria are lower than at that time.

Victoria’s housing market has struggled since 2010 even though 5-year rates have fallen significantly since that time.

I think you lack perspective. Stable prices for a year is a sign of a weak market when interest rates are the lowest in history. Prices in Toronto and Hamilton are up approximately 10% year-over-year. This is what should be happening in Victoria with record-low rates. Victoria’s market is unhealthy.

The public release from Victoria’s board might be of interest to you. They’re skilled at cherry pick stats to make things look better than they actually are while refusing to mention anything negative. I’m sure there are other blogs that do the same.

Garth’s blog has several regulars who post comments that reveal the truth about Victoria’s market. I’m one of them.

#119 Yes, you can short the RE canadian market on 05.05.15 at 12:36 am

#19 Juan on 05.04.15 at 6:31 pm
Ok Garth, I got it!
The Canadian Real state market is overvalued, now my question is how I can profit from it?
Are you aware of any way to short the Canadian real state market?

==========
Of course you can. Give me 500 million dollars and I’ll short the hell of Toronto. If prices keep going up, you’re left with 400 million.

#120 Nosty, etc. on 05.05.15 at 12:36 am

#74 SWL1976 on 05.04.15 at 9:32 pm — “Draw your own conclusions on that one”

Further to your post.

#121 bdy sktrn on 05.05.15 at 1:21 am

#105 Holcomb Shafetly on 05.04.15 at 11:00 pm
So if NDP gets in tomorrow in the Wild West, will Oil Companies be under attack due to the likelihood of higher taxation and stricter regulation? Time to sell in May and go away for the energy investors? What do you think Garth and Smoking Man?
———————————–
when glen clark and the dippers had bc in the late 90s it was grim for our resource biz.

it’s like killing a penalty but for 4 years. you keep playing, but it’s a shorthanded lineup.

#122 Vanecdotal on 05.05.15 at 1:37 am

#76 Ripped re #62 Porsche

“A person that paid 180K 6 years ago for a condo would be lucky to get 140K now. Developers are lowering prices and free GST, etc…”

You are right on the money. We get these types of fliers regularly for “new builds” in Langley & S. Surrey completed as far back as 2012 with perpetually increasing incentives, and as of last year, finally actual price drops. FVREB’s own frankenumber HPI stats show Langley townhomes trending down over last 5 years, and flat / pacing inflation (i.e. losing money) in last 10 years. Condos are absolutely taking it in the pants as you stated.

http://www.fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package%20201504.pdf

Yet, Willoughby on the Langley side of 200th, and Clayton on the Surrey side are still building out rapidly, as a few thousand more townhomes & condos are racing to completion in the next 3 years. These are almost entirely car dependent communities with people stacked cheek-by-jowl as if this was a walkable urban area, (which could make sense), but are in fact converted COW pasture still located in the middle of nowhere. I think this build out was/is in anticipation of the new Port Mann bridge completion, however the steep tolls have hampered the imagined “exodus” of Vancouverites that would flee to Langley to live the “urban lifestyle” in the middle of ex-urban nowhere, apparently.

East Clayton was actually envisioned as a well-intentioned green walkable community experiment, but shortly after phase 1 completed, became anything but, as problems started with parking, illegal suiting, property crime etc. began almost immediately. Even Diane Watts, prev. Mayor of Surrey is on record as stating mistakes were made, yet that development has become the de facto blueprint for every other urban-residential development in that area that followed. This entire area may continue to decline as rapidly as it densifies, if what’s happening in East Clayton is any indication. The incredibly poor planning is already evident in neighbourhood tensions, traffic nightmares, etc. Have met several people recently who bought here in the last 5 years or so, and it can take 20 min just to get in and out of the immediate area in rush hour everyday. Add that to your daily commute, yikes. They’re not happy campers, both want to move but seems they may already be underwater & can’t afford to sell.

http://www.cloverdalereporter.com/news/227253551.html
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/surreys-east-clayton-a-dream-community-with-growing-pains/article545557/
and the natives are restless… already: http://www.parkingforclayton.com/

Gem excerpt: “The city has profited by allowing builders to build zero clearance lots with huge houses and Coach homes with no driveways allowing the city to collect more taxes and promote unsustainable growth in the area. Clayton residents can no longer tolerate being punished by the city of Surrey planning department.”

Why anyone looking at both at past performance, and relentlessly increasing supply-side fundamentals would choose to purchase here, at this time is an “UDDER” mystery. Caveat Emptor. At least rent first, see if you like it. Apparently, there’s no shortage of “illegal” suites.

#123 JimH on 05.05.15 at 2:24 am

#92 Lee on 05.04.15 at 10:36 pm
“Are 3x efts too risky for the small investor”
==========================
3x long/short ETF’s were never intended for “investors” big, small or in-between.
They were intended purely as swing-trading or day-trading short-term speculative tools for very experienced and very nimble traders (as opposed to investors).
Anyway, if you have to ask about them, the answer is “no”!

#124 Made in BC on 05.05.15 at 2:25 am

They were talking about foreign ownership all day on the news today and how we are in only place in the world that does not have restrictions. So I guess the govt of Hong Kong are racists. The Auzzies are racist. The Danes are racist. The Thai’s are racist. And they are all anti-investment apparently. Canada knows how to do it right. Everyone else is wrong…..

Meanwhile in France (speaking of the commies in AB):

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/30175

#125 Hurtin' Albertan on 05.05.15 at 3:11 am

After 44 years the AB PCs will not give up power. They own this province and so many in positions of authority and influence are beholden to them. They rule for the benefit of the mega-corps and the 1% (who have underwritten them for decades). The PCs have appointed the returning officers and have tweaked the riding sizes, boundaries and election rules to their benefit. The 99% are roiling and the NDP may take rEdmonton but not Calgary. Rural ridings will go either PC or Wildrose. Somehow, just as in 2012, the PCs will come out on top and their dynasty will continue. Democracy in Oilberta is a fantasy.

#126 Jim Turner on 05.05.15 at 4:58 am

I found this real estate article very timely, http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2014/12/how-bad-could-it-be.html, you might too.

#127 EmpCod on 05.05.15 at 6:36 am

56 Dom on 05.04.15 at 8:38 pm
Could anyone tell me.

If I transfer equities in kind from a non registered account in to my TFSA do I have to use book value or account balance. My non registered account is showing a small loss at the moment. Thanks

Market value. — Garth

=============

Please read on the “superficial loss” rule before doing something like that. Unless you want to renounce your claim for capital loss.

#128 Sheane Wallace on 05.05.15 at 6:49 am

DELETED

#129 imf_buddy on 05.05.15 at 7:11 am

«[…] plus warnings of doom flowing from international monetary bodies […] »

—————
lol…no truer words were ever spoken

#130 maxx on 05.05.15 at 7:36 am

#6 None on 05.04.15 at 6:15 pm

“…..and the conservative CON that they are somehow good for the economy or more financially literate will continue.”

Agreed. I’ve come to realize though, that many of the so called financially literate make seriously stupid mistakes. Especially within the framework of an inflexible work environment. That might be government.

Cull all of the data and wisdom you can handle and make up your own mind.

#131 SWL1976 on 05.05.15 at 7:37 am

#116 Waterloo Resident

Like I’ve said a few times: YOU CAN’T FIX STUPID

But we continually prove that that you can maintain it

#99 Habs76-79

I enjoyed your train and caboose analogy. It’s good.

Nothing to worry about here… That wreck is at the front of the train… What could go wrong?

#120 Nosty, etc. Always an interesting perspective from you

#132 maxx on 05.05.15 at 7:40 am

#12 DYOR on 05.04.15 at 6:23 pm

DYOR- excellent.

#133 Who Knew? on 05.05.15 at 7:52 am

DELETED

#134 pBrasseur on 05.05.15 at 8:15 am

Jim Turner #126

Yes it is interesting although not much new there for anyone following this blog.

What I would really like to see is a formal compilation of numbers showing government’s all forms of implications in the RE market, especially since the GFC.

Reinsurance numbers both by CMHC and private corps (which the governments also backs). Covered bonds programs, mortgage purchase programs, etc…

It is truly amazing given the level of involvement of the government is this that so little information is available.

Somebody in a position to so should take it of them to gather the info and publish it!

Garth how about it?

#135 Alberta is FINISHED on 05.05.15 at 8:43 am

I highly doubt the dullest pencils in Canada would wake up to the fact the conservatives are the most fiscally irresponsible party in the world. Social Norway or NDP like Norway saved ONE TRILLION dollars vs $17 billion for conservative Alberta. I don’t think mentally challenged Albertans understand the difference. After 40 plus years of mismanagement you still have the dull pencils in the box kicking and screaming how great the spend, waste and steal conservatives are compared to everyone else. I don’t think the people of Alberta are smart enough or have the mental capacity to understand how terrible the conservatives are to Alberta and Canada as a whole. Good luck Alberta as the depression will be hard on you. Alberta is FINISHED

#136 Ralph Cramdown on 05.05.15 at 8:52 am

#79 Washed Up Lawyer — “Farewell Athabaska. Making my way to Kenora.”

Good luck, but know this: The ‘ra’ in Kenora is shortened down from ‘Rat Portage.’

#137 Ralph Cramdown on 05.05.15 at 8:52 am

#79 Washed Up Lawyer — “Farewell Athabaska. Making my way to Kenora.”

Good luck, but know this: The ‘ra’ in Kenora is shortened down from ‘Rat Portage.’

#138 jess on 05.05.15 at 9:07 am

the unhappiness index?

swiss second pillar annuity @6.8 and negative rates
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/retirement-planning_-every–swiss–pension-fund-manager-is-worried-/41400582
=
boastful “cross selling”?
BUSINESS
L.A. sues Wells Fargo, alleging ‘unlawful and fraudulent conduct’
E. Scott Reckard

Rigid sales quotas at Wells Fargo Bank drove employees to open unauthorized accounts for customers, sticking them with bogus fees and damaging their credit, according to a city of Los Angeles lawsuit that echoes a Times investigation
http://www.latimes.com/

#139 Ex-Cowtown on 05.05.15 at 9:13 am

#95 Squatter on 05.04.15 at 10:45 pm

#91 Ex-Cowtown
Unfortunately King Ralph’s “eastern creeps and bums” have now taken over the last best place and have run it into the ground. I lament for what was lost and what will be lost.
————————————
You are a disgusting redneck.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You say that like its a bad thing. Just because someone has a 12 piece place setting of salad bowls that all say “Cool Whip” doesn’t make them a bad person. Or wrong.

#140 Smoking Man on 05.05.15 at 9:15 am

What a disaster for the USA trade balance. Ok Yellen let’s see you spike now….

Bahahaha.

Nobody has suggested anything remotely like a rate ‘spike.’ But the Fed will add a quarter or half point to its benchmark rate later this year. — Garth

#141 Ralph Cramdown on 05.05.15 at 9:29 am

#26 Calgary is AWESOME — “The commies will be a spectacular disaster.No way in hell will they ever balance a budget.”

Wow, that’s quite the prediction! Especially considering that the PC party’s latest budget wasn’t balanced, even with all its tax increases. And that the PC party managed to ‘balance’ its budgets by spending the oil fund down from $24 billion in the early ’80 to $14 billion today.

Advice to all in Alberta: Keep an eye on the balance sheet.

#142 NEVER GIVE UP on 05.05.15 at 9:37 am

This is why the conservatives want to keep the party going just until the election.

Then really, who cares what happens.

The average voter has a memory similar to that of a housefly….on crack!

#143 Edmontonian on 05.05.15 at 9:48 am

Good comments about Alberta Garth. WE are in a bit of a down-spin. Huge new office spaces built a year ago remain almost completely empty as a 60 story tower, and a new 30 story tower (both office towers) go up.

Hopefully we will form a new government in this Province.

The PC Party of Alberta has shown so much corruption, I think that is the reason why Mr. Obama hasn’t approved the Keystone Pipeline, he doesn’t want to deal with people like that.

In the meantime, I am seeing several houses in my favourite area being re-listed from last fall…. they are re-lists!

#144 Smoking Man on 05.05.15 at 10:05 am

#140 Smoking Man on 05.05.15 at 9:15 am
What a disaster for the USA trade balance. Ok Yellen let’s see you spike now….

Bahahaha.

Nobody has suggested anything remotely like a rate ‘spike.’ But the Fed will add a quarter or half point to its benchmark rate later this year. — Garth
…….

Garth you know love you man. But take your blinders off, stop listening to the schooled. 51 billion ass kicking on trade balance, we are talking potentially another recession for uncle sam.

Retailers shouting down all over the place.

Australia Central Bank out of the blue just cut again.

Currency War On!!!!!!

#145 Squatter on 05.05.15 at 10:05 am

#139 Ex-Cowtown:

#95 Squatter on 05.04.15 at 10:45 pm

#91 Ex-Cowtown
Unfortunately King Ralph’s “eastern creeps and bums” have now taken over the last best place and have run it into the ground. I lament for what was lost and what will be lost.
————————————
You are a disgusting redneck.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You say that like its a bad thing. Just because someone has a 12 piece place setting of salad bowls that all say “Cool Whip” doesn’t make them a bad person. Or wrong.
—————————————
No, but hating everyone from Eastern provinces who move to AB to get a job sure makes someone a bad person. Your guys think you are nicer than everyone else in Canada. I moved there a while ago with an Ontario license plate. Your being nice is just a front. It just hides hatred and backwardness.
That being said, I hope you don’t elect the commies.

#146 Rational Optimist on 05.05.15 at 10:12 am

44 Linda on 05.04.15 at 7:53 pm

“Reasons for voting anything other than PC
1) if you are wondering whose fault this is, look in the mirror (Prentice scolds Alberta for fiscal mess)”

I’m sure there are plenty of reasons for voting against the incumbents, but this isn’t one. Whose fault could Albertans’ financial mess be besides Albertans? Albertans on average have the highest income in the country, and yet also the highest debt-to-income ratio. They’ve been living high on the hog even though their economy is very prone to boom and bust cycles…the provincial government should have been saving for the rainy day that was inevitable, but so should average households have been. And they probably should not have continued voting for a provincial government content with taxing the future instead of the present. The new guy is just pointing out that the challenges faced now are the result of the sum of a lot of terrible decisions in the past.

I’m sure it’s better politics to say “this mess is all the fault of [immigrants/outsiders/the opposition/another level of government/”speculators”/foreigners/”special interests”/everyone but us],” but it’s true that Alberta’s woes are the fault of Albertans.

What he actually said was “In terms of who is responsible, we all need only look in the mirror. All of us have had the best of everything and have not had to pay for what it costs.”

That’s true.

#147 Mike T. on 05.05.15 at 10:20 am

#135 Alberta is FINISHED

I just don’t think it is fair to isolate Alberta with that rant.
Anyone that gives their autonomy or power away to someone else is mentally challenged.

Anyone that stands between you and the Source of All is an imposter.
You Source
not
You Source

I will save it for another time, but there is no man in the sky. YOU are the man in the sky.

anyways, the point is don’t accept anyone that stands between you and Source – they are imposters and they need your power, otherwise they have none.

#148 Samantha on 05.05.15 at 10:21 am

The RE markets in Toronto and Vancouver are overpriced beyond belief. Look at this listing in North Toronto, it came out at $1,388,000 about a week ago and now is reduced to “only” $1,318,000:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=15622289

3 years ago houses similar to this were fetching $850,000 on a good day. How long will this insanity continue?

#149 saskatoon on 05.05.15 at 10:24 am

#144 Smoking Man

garth,

yellen has never said rates will rise…but rather, she has persistently said that rates will possibly rise IF economic data supports such an initiative.

clearly, recent US data does not support this, and (in fact) the month to month data continues to worsen.

get back to your contrarian roots, garth.

Those who do not prepare for steadily increasing money costs are fools. Or ostriches. — Garth

#150 Alberta is FINISHED on 05.05.15 at 10:29 am

Alberta is FINISHED. Conservatives squandered a potential trillion dollars or greater of oil sands wealth that went to the 1% leaving the other 99% a future problem. The oil sands will have an orderly shutting down of operations. It’s over…. Alberta is FINISHED. Read it and weep below.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/texas-law-bans-cities-from-banning-fracking-1.3061493

#151 West Coaster on 05.05.15 at 10:30 am

Here’s another Canadian newspaper you’ll have to ban as ‘anti chinese’ Garth.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Vancouver+lacks+effective+control+over+rising+house+prices/11028564/story.html

Your world is shrinking dude.

David Ley has been a consistent anti-immigrant champion in YVR. The Sun has given him consistent coverage. They are consistently wrong. — Garth

#152 Calgary is AWESOME on 05.05.15 at 10:59 am

#139 Ex-Cowtown on 05.05.15 at 9:13 am

#95 Squatter on 05.04.15 at 10:45 pm

#91 Ex-Cowtown
Unfortunately King Ralph’s “eastern creeps and bums” have now taken over the last best place and have run it into the ground. I lament for what was lost and what will be lost.
————————————
You are a disgusting redneck.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You say that like its a bad thing. Just because someone has a 12 piece place setting of salad bowls that all say “Cool Whip” doesn’t make them a bad person. Or wrong.
——————————————————

Rednecks are AWESOME.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IerahEMmYZk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cQNkIrg-Tk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82dDnv9zeLs

#153 Mike on 05.05.15 at 11:01 am

As an Albertan, (a conservative Albertan at that), I see the need for a political change here. The PC’s have totally screwed over this province ever since King Ralph left his throne. Unfortunately, our other options are pretty pathetic.

Anyone from Sask (like I am)? Remember how the NDP aka communism party ran Saskatchewan for 50 some odd years? Sask is pretty similar to Alberta in terms of resources and after nearly 10years in power the Sask Party is still WAY behind getting Sask to a level set by Alberta. Sales tax, roads beyond terrible, high crime, a fraction of the population, etc. Not to say the Sask Party hasn’t done a good job… I’m just making a point of how badly the NDP before them ran Saskatchewan.

I’m also not saying the Alberta NDP are the same, but the possibility that they are even remotely the same sure is scary as heck.

#154 Mark on 05.05.15 at 11:13 am

“Conservatives squandered a potential trillion dollars or greater of oil sands wealth that went to the 1% leaving the other 99% a future problem.”

How so? Anyone can look at the chart of many of the major oil sands operators, such as Suncor, Cenovus, etc., and see that the profits were not outsized. In fact, these companies over the past 7-8 years have lagged the market severely.

The big ‘winners’ in the oil sands game have been the employees particularly the skilled trades. Paid top dollar for their labour. The actual 1% hasn’t made much from the oil sands, if anything at all. And government, of course, has leeched billions in taxes from the highly paid oilsands workers and suppliers — a haul that is dramatically greater than any shareholder dividends paid or bond interest payments made.

“In 1980 I could buy a brand new trans-am then sell it 6 months later for a $2000 profit.”

I once read an article that claimed that an airline with a 5 or 6-year old airplane actually made money and had to pay taxes when their plane crashed, and insurance was obliged to pay replacement value which was much higher than depreciated ‘book value’. In roughly the same era.

#155 Smoking Man on 05.05.15 at 11:15 am

Record Sales for the month of April for GTA. Prices Up huge. Especially in 416

Supply And Demand. At work.

#156 Nagraj on 05.05.15 at 11:21 am

CALGARY COWBOY: “What are these pension thingies of which you speak?” [Lemme ask CALGARY COWBOY if he’s channeling Garfield the cat and if he remembers the time Garfield shit in Jon’s earphones.]

EX COWTOWN: “Just because someone has a 12 piece place setting of salad bowls that all say ‘Cool Whip’ doesn’t make them a bad person.” [Cool Whip is more like Cool Chemicals – it makes them a toxic person.]

DRILL BABY DRILL: “Truck Nutz . . . they are sweet, a real status symbol.” You’re sweet too. [Dog on a barstool is lickin’ hisself. Johnny to bartender: Wonder if I could do that? Bartender: You’ll have to ask him first.]

. . . inbetween the Trudeauphobia and Tangerinescaremongering one appreciates humour more, n’est-ce pas?

#157 Setting the Record Straight on 05.05.15 at 11:32 am

@15 at 9:48 pm
Taunt all you want Ontarioans, but the job scene here doesn’t look all that much better than what’s happening in Alberta. Especially outside of the GTA, not that Wynne ever leaves the city to see it. Maybe when all the money gets spent on infrastructure she’ll be able to take a ride out the wasteland that the rest of Ontario has and is becoming. The knowledge economy doesn’t replace manufacturing, and that was the backbone of the middle class. Pretty soon the middle class is going to be something kids read about in a history book, that is if the teacher’s unions aren’t still on strike to teach it.

Real Estate is just the harbinger.

&&&&&&&&&&

People refuse to acknowledge that middle income workers were not middle class. Their standard of living was doomed by the combination of developing economies, global communications(Internet etc) and the widespread teaching of English. When you have equally skilled workers willing to work for a fraction of the price,combined with the elimination of structural barriers to communication and transportation their income could not be sustained.

They were never middle class and that is why they were susceptible to wage competition from the developing economies.

#158 Mister Obvious on 05.05.15 at 11:32 am

#148 Samantha

“How long will this insanity continue?”
——————————-

My guess: as long as money remains cheap as borscht.

#159 Squirrel meat on 05.05.15 at 11:53 am

Literally killed by the treadmill!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/05/05/dave-goldbergs-death-points-to-rise-and-risks-of-treadmills-in-era-of-smart-phones/?tid=hp_mm&hpid=z3

#160 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 05.05.15 at 11:55 am

60 dollars bitchez !!

#161 TorontoBull on 05.05.15 at 11:56 am

@SM – actually sales and prices in the 905 generally outperformed the 416

#162 Calgary is AWESOME on 05.05.15 at 12:08 pm

#135 Alberta is FINISHED on 05.05.15 at 8:43 am

I highly doubt the dullest pencils in Canada would wake up to the fact the conservatives are the most fiscally irresponsible party in the world. Social Norway or NDP like Norway saved ONE TRILLION dollars vs $17 billion for conservative Alberta. I don’t think mentally challenged Albertans understand the difference. After 40 plus years of mismanagement you still have the dull pencils in the box kicking and screaming how great the spend, waste and steal conservatives are compared to everyone else. I don’t think the people of Alberta are smart enough or have the mental capacity to understand how terrible the conservatives are to Alberta and Canada as a whole. Good luck Alberta as the depression will be hard on you. Alberta is FINISHED

—————————————————

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luKmSLXukaw

#163 Calgary is AWESOME on 05.05.15 at 12:14 pm

#150 Alberta is FINISHED on 05.05.15 at 10:29 am

Alberta is FINISHED. Conservatives squandered a potential trillion dollars or greater of oil sands wealth that went to the 1% leaving the other 99% a future problem. The oil sands will have an orderly shutting down of operations. It’s over…. Alberta is FINISHED. Read it and weep below.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/texas-law-bans-cities-from-banning-fracking-1.3061493
——————————————————–

You seem to revel in jealously. Typical of effeminate intersexuals sucking on transfer teats.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJe754cLbok

#164 Rexx Rock on 05.05.15 at 12:17 pm

Lets hope Alberta decides to get rid of the PC and their fascist government .PC are all about spewing lies and propaganda for their benefit.On their watch they plundered the huge oil revenue over the years.

#165 Investorz on 05.05.15 at 12:17 pm

RateSpy on Twitter:

Fixed rates are starting to move up at some lenders.
5 year bond yields at a 4-month high.

#166 Shiner on 05.05.15 at 12:35 pm

#153 Mike on 05.05.15 at 11:01 am

“Remember how the NDP aka communism party ran Saskatchewan for 50 some odd years?…just making a point of how badly the NDP before them ran Saskatchewan.”

Forgot the 80’s have we? The Grant Devine PC era?? The Federal Conservatives wouldn’t even let him run for them in the early aughts, he was considered an undesirable candidate after his government ripped off Saskatchewan taxpayers for years.

#167 Mark on 05.05.15 at 12:43 pm

“Those who do not prepare for steadily increasing money costs are fools. Or ostriches.”

For some, particularly business borrowers, rising interest rates actually imply lower costs of money. As the real after-tax cost of borrowing is typically less in a higher rate environment, than in a lower rate environment. Inflation and economic growth, which are the necessary pre-requisites to higher rates, additionally are tailwinds for many businesses, particularly those with large long-term investments in fixed plant and equipment financed at fixed rates.

#168 CalgaryRocks on 05.05.15 at 1:01 pm

The big ‘winners’ in the oil sands game have been the employees particularly the skilled trades. Paid top dollar for their labour. The actual 1% hasn’t made much from the oil sands, if anything at all. And government, of course, has leeched billions in taxes from the highly paid oilsands workers and suppliers — a haul that is dramatically greater than any shareholder dividends paid or bond interest payments made.

I agree with that. The opportunity was, and still is, huge for common people from all over Canada, not just 1%ers.

Albertastrophe can’t figure out how common people can earn such astronomical salaries by working hard in harsh conditions.

No because, that would imply that maybe he’s doing something wrong. And he can’t have that.

Damn it, it’s the 1%ers that are keeping him down, not his own shortcomings.

#169 calgaryPhantom on 05.05.15 at 1:15 pm

This video was just meant for this blog. ( watch till the end )

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJPTqWtv8IQ

#170 Smoking Man on 05.05.15 at 1:32 pm

Mark Krunt, AK Old Man from GF fame is heading to Mexico City to view the slides right now.

He said, my regards to Garth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAykEkn_5gY

#171 Smoking Man on 05.05.15 at 1:34 pm

#161 TorontoBull on 05.05.15 at 11:56 am
@SM – actually sales and prices in the 905 generally outperformed the 416
……

Not in my hood.

#172 Dup on 05.05.15 at 1:40 pm

Canadian housing is starting to get a haircut. I bet 20% overall across the country, just like our dollar.

#173 jess on 05.05.15 at 1:52 pm

Royalty Miscalculation Cost Alberta Billions, Expert Says

‘The Tories chose to pretend the big blunder did not happen,’ says consultant Jim Roy.

By Andrew Nikiforuk
http://thetyee.ca/

#174 PM on 05.05.15 at 2:01 pm

Canadian housing is starting to get a haircut. I bet 20% overall across the country, just like our dollar

Bold prediction when both are at highs today. Keep calling for a drop and it’s bound to happen I suppose.

#175 Mike S on 05.05.15 at 2:21 pm

Any comments on the new bail out rules by the BoC?

Subprime mortgages of certain credit unions will now be accepted as collateral?

#176 jess on 05.05.15 at 2:26 pm

“burner phone”?

real estate tax abatements and other real estate legislation

New York State Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos and Son Arrested on Corruption Charges
Dean Skelos Allegedly Used Official Position to Cause More Than $200,000 in Payments to Son

http://www.fbi.gov/newyork/press-releases/2015/new-york-state-senate-majority-leader-dean-skelos-and-son-arrested-on-corruption-charges

#177 young & foolish on 05.05.15 at 2:32 pm

No doubt, the RE market is correcting … but so it seems, every other market is as well.

#178 Math is hard for Commies on 05.05.15 at 2:32 pm

The Hugo Chavez lover for Finance Minister.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/a-yoga-teacher-students-and-a-hugo-chavez-fan-what-an-ndp-government-might-look-like-in-alberta

#179 The Fed on 05.05.15 at 2:33 pm

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/bank-of-canada-proposes-tweaks-to-shield-system-from-future-financial-crises-302589101.html?cx_navSource=d-top-story

Interesting!

#180 Mike on 05.05.15 at 2:58 pm

In your politically economist view; what is good for Alberta? More taxes or more of the same and wait for the next oil spike? I’m not a fan of either but I do assume that a spoon full of reality will soon be required…and not just by the YYC & YMM home owner.

#181 Prairieboy43 on 05.05.15 at 2:59 pm

Agree with Dup #173. Real Estate prices falling. Looking on Van Isle. North Saanich realtor stated one place that had my interest sold a lot less than asking price. Did not receive the # ?? Duncan, Cowichan Bay dropping prices $50,000-$100,000.00 on price change.
Yes Real Estate is starting the descent.
AB Finished. At least your dislike over AB is consistent. Don’t visit AB. Thank You! No Transfer payments for U.

#182 Alberta Ed on 05.05.15 at 3:01 pm

I suspect the loss for Alberta homeowners is even higher when you add in maintenance and insurance and taxes.

#183 Bottoms_Up on 05.05.15 at 3:05 pm

Blog dogs, let’s have an exit poll from our Alberta representatives. How did you vote?

#184 Made in BC on 05.05.15 at 3:12 pm

#159 Squirrel meat on 05.05.15 at 11:53 am
Literally killed by the treadmill!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/05/05/dave-goldbergs-death-points-to-rise-and-risks-of-treadmills-in-era-of-smart-phones/?tid=hp_mm&hpid=z3

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Goldberg, Sandberg, Zuckerberg……hey if I change my last name to Mountainberg can I have a million dollar a year job at Faceberg…..I mean Facebook too?

#185 Leo Trollstoy on 05.05.15 at 3:14 pm

Record Sales for the month of April for GTA. Prices Up huge. Especially in 416

Supply And Demand. At work.

Not surprising. Toronto RE prices accounting for sales mix have been going straight up for almost 2 decades.

Unsustainable.

#186 Doug in London on 05.05.15 at 3:29 pm

@not 1st, post #169:
Probably the same place as the genius who earlier this year said oil would drop to $20 per barrel.

#187 turn of the tide on 05.05.15 at 3:47 pm

Everyone’s gotta start somewhere.. We’re both 36, finally finished paying off student debt. All money was going into debt repayment for years. Now, we’re debt-free. No assets. But can start saving.

Want to enter a diversified portfolio…

Garth, what’s the steps when one is just starting to build up savings? Say I’ve saved up 5K… makes more sense to put the whole 5k into a single investment vehicle and do that for next 5K chunks? Or better to break this tiny 5K into 40/60 millennial portfolio?

#188 contribute on 05.05.15 at 3:57 pm

Let in immigrants that will contribute

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/refugees-pay-more-income-tax-than-millionaire-investor-immigrants-1.2984982

#189 Realitybytes on 05.05.15 at 4:02 pm

Yuck, what a sea of red today. Everything down 1-4%.

#190 The Fed on 05.05.15 at 4:06 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/april-house-sales-surge-17-in-toronto-37-in-vancouver-1.3061755

This is insanity……

#191 Gen X Confessions on 05.05.15 at 4:40 pm

#188 turn of the tide on 05.05.15 at 3:47 pm
“Say I’ve saved up 5K… makes more sense to put the whole 5k into a single investment vehicle and do that for next 5K chunks? ”

Don’t try to save up 5K chunks. You will be tempted to spend them. Setup an autopayment that comes out immediately after you get paid, that mimics your target portfolio the best you can. Yes, more than one thing or you are not really diversified & balanced
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/payyourselffirst.asp

Working for us.

#192 PeterfromCalgary on 05.05.15 at 4:41 pm

The end is near! Prepare for the NDPocalypse. Alberta is doomed so stock up on ammo, water and whiskey. You will need all three to survive the NDPocalypse.

#193 45north on 05.05.15 at 4:54 pm

The 22-per-cent tax rate for anyone with a taxable annual income between $44,701 and $89,401 would be cut to 20.5 per cent.
A new tax bracket of 33 per cent would be imposed on those with taxable incomes over $200,000 a year. The current top bracket of 29 per cent would continue to apply to those earning between $138,586 and $200,000.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/justin-trudeau-plan-taxes-top-1-to-cut-taxes-boost-benefits-for-middle-class-1.3060323

so a simple sql query would tell you how much you would get by raising the tax rate for those with incomes more than $200,000 and another sql query would tell you how much you would lose be lowering the tax rate for those with incomes between $44,701 and $89,401

I’m thinking with the whole database cached in memory, each query would take less than 1 minute. Lots of time to tweak the queries and run them again. This is not high-end stuff, Revenue Canada has probably got a dozen junior analysts doing exactly that.

That’s assuming that those earning over $200,000 stay in Canada. I’m thinking that they have considerable choice over where they live. Say they move from Ottawa Ontario to say San Diego, California.

#194 cramar on 05.05.15 at 4:55 pm

#189 contribute on 05.05.15 at 3:57 pm

Let in immigrants that will contribute

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/refugees-pay-more-income-tax-than-millionaire-investor-immigrants-1.2984982

——–

Noteworthy from the article:

Ho said it’s “ridiculous” to say those immigrants are not an asset to Canada because they don’t pay much income tax here.

“Typically they would buy a house. They would spend a lot of money in fixing a house, buying a car, spending a lot of money consuming goods, stuff like that. All kinds of things that help the economy,” Ho said.

“Look at the property taxes they pay every year on a house worth $1 million or $2 million.”

#195 5 years later... on 05.05.15 at 4:56 pm

hang on to this one..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqOn5XEm86A

#196 Preacher on 05.05.15 at 5:00 pm

UPDATE 1-Bank of Canada cautions on ETFs, outlines liquidity proposals

May 5 (Reuters) – Some exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds might face liquidity problems if a large number of investors were to run for the exits at the same time, Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins warned on Tuesday.

I think I will stick to stuff I understand.

Why would anyone sell into a crisis? — Garth

#197 PM on 05.05.15 at 5:19 pm

Goldberg, Sandberg, Zuckerberg……hey if I change my last name to Mountainberg can I have a million dollar a year job at Faceberg…..I mean Facebook too?

Careful with the borderline racist insinuations.

#198 Mike S on 05.05.15 at 5:44 pm

“Why would anyone sell into a crisis? — Garth”

It is not a crisis until they sell …

#199 Alex N Calgary on 05.05.15 at 6:16 pm

Can you blame AB for going for another party? Liberal’s have no real leader here, PC’s in order to boot the last woman leader ended up disclosing a bunch of their arrogant spending and self indulgence, no money in the Heritage fund, buddy buddy with all the oil corps, what a joke they’ve been.

NDP here isn’t like NDP BC, they are more like the Lib’s here and the NDP is like Green in BC and Lib is NDP etc. Last election they were preaching to get refineries built here in AB using some tax breaks etc. to get refined product rolling out of Canada instead of Raw Bitumen\blend selling at a discount VS WTI sweet US crude, not that anyone read that at all. Nope, just sell every Canadian oil corp off to the Chinese\Spanish\USA etc so they can dump everyone when oil goes south and move to lower to drill markets (happening now everywhere)

NDP has a plan to increase royalties by 2% but slash Corp donations to the PC party in order to get the buddy buddy backroom deals under control. Slash and Burn in this province until the Corps bail and leave us with a environmental disastor.

Ground Zero AB, BS speculative trading going on in the US about half ass reports on reserve status and rig count, no doubt OPEC is drilling with their slave labor\Zero safety low $ rigs to boost output, world supply continues to climb despite lower demand, just like housing you can see how much market manipulation is in play at a time like this, just push it as far as you can and pray for a miracle (War or Gov collapse, seriously, thats what our big boss told us last big meeting here)

The head of our oil and gas division north america is here this week, and he’s brought his choppin axe, how long will we still exist here? Our parent corp 13k employee strong just wrote down 190Million in losses in its oil and gas division, learned about how corps can make up their own Goodwill value and just slash it away, zombie Corps right?

Great post today, keep it up!

BTW still total ignorance in Calgary, especially people who don’t work in oil and gas have NO idea, nobody has any CLUE about housing, including my wifes lawyer friend who is getting her realtor license right now! No research, no nothing, insane right?

#200 Ralph Cramdown on 05.05.15 at 6:19 pm

“Why would anyone sell into a crisis?”

Fear of further losses, obvs. They always have, they always do, and they will next time, too.

Now what happens to the equity of remaining unitholders when some ETF holders sell into a crisis, forcing the ETF to liquidate its holdings into said crisis at crappy prices?

Simple fix. Hold assets with lots of liquidity – a lesons many DIYers here have no clue about. — Garth

#201 Italians love real estate on 05.05.15 at 6:27 pm

#161 TorontoBull on 05.05.15 at 11:56 am
@SM – actually sales and prices in the 905 generally outperformed the 416

Correct .

#202 Doug in London on 05.05.15 at 9:08 pm

@Preacher, post #197:
So exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds might face liquidity problems if a large number of investors were to run for the exits at the same time you say? Great, make my day and bring it on!!!! Such events create AMAZING BUYING OPPORTUNITIES!!!! Boxing Week sales are far too good a thing to have only during that pitifully short week between Christmas and New Year’s Eve.

#203 Brother on 05.06.15 at 1:02 am

#62 and #76 re: langley real estate not the case for single family detached in langley. I have seen bidding wars all over and some areas are up 10% over one year.

#204 Calgary Rip Off on 05.06.15 at 10:00 am

This is a glorious day.

The pathetic PC party has finally been voted out. I have watched their pathetic drivel since 2007.

Will I pay higher taxes? Yes. But at least they are going towards something. And, more importantly oil corporations will be held accountable.

I also hope they introduce a provincial sales tax. Maybe this new structure will stop the outrageous greed in Calgary.

Although in my riding my NDP candidate didnt get in, Jim Prentice did. Now he is my MLA. I remember when Frey came to my door. I said sorry, Im not voting for your party, I value having a job and Im not voting for Prentice either. Who are you voting for? NDP. As I always have.

For those Albertans that dont like it, go marry an American and join Police State USA.

#205 Love My Kia on 05.06.15 at 12:13 pm

Yes the stock market is down but oil is rallying…how bout that?

The sky has not fallen.

#206 Love My Kia on 05.06.15 at 12:17 pm

PeterfromCalgary on 05.05.15 at 4:41 pm
The end is near! Prepare for the NDPocalypse. Alberta is doomed so stock up on ammo, water and whiskey. You will need all three to survive the NDPocalypse.
————————————
Oil rallied up today. What apocalypse?

#207 Doug in London on 05.06.15 at 11:43 pm

I’m still waiting for the $20 per barrel oil the “experts” were predicting earlier this year.

#208 NEVER GIVE UP on 05.07.15 at 11:23 am

Is it unreasonable to speculate that maybe the central banks have a pact to keep interest rates artificially low for the next 20 or 30 years and see what happens.

Japan has had 20 plus years of slow deflation. Painful but not as painful as a sharp depression.