The honourable FSBO

SIGN modified

Would you buy a used house from a used MP?

Tim’s not convinced, but he sure was surprised at what Maurice Vellacott stuffed in his door. “No words can describe the feeling when you get home,” he says, “and find a sitting MP has come to your house to drop off a flyer that he’s selling his house and will give you a deal in a private sale.

“That’s a sure sign housing is going to crash……. I know you’re against private sales, but surely it’s safe to buy a house from a guy with “D. Min” and “MP” at the end of his name, right? Right???”

Velacott’s been a Member of Parliament since first elected as a Reformer back in 1997. He and I sat in Parliament together for a while, but as a pro-life MP and bigtime theological dude, he had little in common. I think he may even has trashed my butt once or twice after the Conservatives punted me. But then, who didn’t?

In any case, Vellacott lives in Tim’s Ottawa hood and just blitzed it, handing this out:

MV modified

How does any of this possibly matter? Actually it wouldn’t if Maurice wasn’t trying to impress the neighbours by flashing his Parliamentary designation and Godly credentials. Or including his MP’s cellphone number. But because he’s not going to run in the coming election, the politician is clearly trying to bail out of the market when the bailing’s good – and also being cheap while he’s at it.

But cheap is what FSBO is all about. In this instance Vellacott says he’ll be listing his digs for $450,000 in two weeks, “but will sell for $435,000 without any agents involved.” Of course, a house listed for $450,000 in a soggy market like S’toon would probably fetch $410,000 or $420,000, and after commission that would give the MP about $395,000. No wonder he’s passing around flyers.

Even if he found a greater fool to pony up the full price, his after-commission net would be $427,500 – eight grand less than his ‘discounted’ special offer to his beloved constituents. So here’s more proof that FSBO means greed. The DIY seller wants to pay the agent nothing so he can pay himself more. If you think, as a buyer, you’re getting a deal because the commission saving is being passed on to you, think again.

Meanwhile, as Tim asks, is the divine MV’s planned exit a harbinger of tough times ahead?

Well, facts are facts. Sales in Ottawa are stagnant from a year ago, and so are prices. Even CMHC has been warning that “soft employment conditions will temper real estate demand”.

At the same time, stats from back home are also grim. Saskabush sales year/year have plunged by 10% while listings have swollen 16%. Values are already being affected, with the average down 4%. As you may know, this is consistent with a lot of secondary markets in Canada, despite the fact mortgage rates have never been at these levels before, CMHC is still encouraging people without money to buy houses and the media’s turned into endless house porn.

There’s a limit for most people as to how much debt they can choke down in an economy where incomes are stagnant, commodities are in the ditch, full-time jobs are elusive and yet house prices are bloated. Unlike the latte-sipping, hedonistic metrosexual urban butterflies in YVR or the GTA, good God-fearin’ prairie folks (and even those in Ottawa) know their limits. Apparently this is it.

Of course Maurice is bailing. How can you blame him? He’s done with the feds. It’s the smart move.

But don’t be tempted to buy his house and subsidize the guy. You already did that.

188 comments ↓

#1 Setting the Record Straight on 05.01.15 at 7:24 pm

@Trollstoy on 04.30.15 at 9:57 pm
You hit it out of the park with this post GT, save the one conspicuously absent factor of foreign money skewing the market here.

No credible data to support foreign money having any significant impact on the market.

Prices more likely correlated with cheap credit.

Again, glad that all online data sources support my definition of sub-prime.

I’m in good standing when only one or two penniless, delusional, corporate wage slaves disagree xD
$$$$$&&&&
Like all those who argue foreign money does not affect price levels in Vancouver, you need to provide a credible hypothesis as to the difference in relative prices– that is what explains the price differential between Vancouver and other cities in Canada. Low interest rates, CMHC financing etc are constants not variables across Canada.
Variables that come to mind are city size, income levels, cost of building, land inventories etc.

Mr Turner has not stepped up. Mark stepped up with a theory that Vancouverites are used to engaging in mining speculation, and this had spilled over to the Vancouver housing market. Note I am looking for credible hypotheses.

#2 Andrew Woburn on 05.01.15 at 7:28 pm

Interesting weekend read.

“At the launch of Nesta’s book “Our Work Here Is Done: Visions of a Robot Economy”, Carlota Perez described how our current economic troubles are an inevitable and necessary part of the process of technological change. We are at a turning point: if we get it right, there could be a new Golden Age. But for this to happen, there needs to be radical change in current social structures and norms. Do we have the vision and courage to make this happen?”

http://www.pieria.co.uk/articles/towards_a_new_golden_age

#3 arch douche on 05.01.15 at 7:33 pm

His writing looks like he’s 10 years old.

#4 TurnerNation on 05.01.15 at 7:36 pm

Shingles last 50 years in Canada?

What’s next a “Rt. Hon Blog Dog” bestowed title?

#5 Obvious Truth on 05.01.15 at 7:38 pm

The conversation outside Vancouver and Toronto has shifted.

It won’t take but a few months now. It will start with condos. And probably already has. But people will say houses won’t be affected. Till they are.

This us much bigger than just overvalued houses. The gdp report and corporate disaffection with Canada is very apparent. Less jobs and higher rates. Nobody even considered this.

The herd is being picked apart.

Calgary spotted the Ducks one yesterday. I hope.

#6 joblo on 05.01.15 at 7:41 pm

This has nothing to do with come October all the REFORRRRRM
uh PC’s will be listing and moving on?

#7 JustMe on 05.01.15 at 7:43 pm

Vancouver home sells for more than $2 million above listed price

Vancouver’s supply of detached houses is shrinking while more lots are converted to townhouses and apartments.

“When you’ve got too little supply (of detached houses) and too many buyers, that’s always what happens,” he said. “There’s only one result: Prices go up.”

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/slightly-expensive-housing-market-vancouver-home-sells-for-more-than-2-million-above-listed-price

#8 Mister Obvious on 05.01.15 at 7:44 pm

Perhaps he should ask himself: “What would Jesus do?”

#9 Todd on 05.01.15 at 7:45 pm

If he found a greater fool to pay full price and that greater fool used an agent, the discount without an agent would be a better deal for the buyer. After paying buyer agent his 2.5% the MP’s net would be $438750. Buyer’s are conditioned to think their agent’s services are free. That couldn’t be further from the truth.

The buyer’s agent shares the commission the seller hands over. — Garth

#10 saskatoon on 05.01.15 at 7:45 pm

“But don’t be tempted to buy his house and subsidize the guy. You already did that.”

ahhhh “subsidization”…

a convenient euphemism for “you’ve been robbed!”

literally.

#11 Saskatchewan roller on 05.01.15 at 7:48 pm

I’ll tell you what the “real” estate story’s in Saskatoon. Houses are moving at pre-2007 levels. No hyped up pricing or pressure sales. Realtors are hungry as the inventories increase. But the homes are moving, at a balance price. It’s actually comforting for a lifer in this town. The oil shock doesn’t overly hurt the economy, as potash and uranium sales strong with big contract overseas for this year. Find some other city to pick on, there is no grand demise in ‘toon town. I know it makes the readers feel smug as the mighty collapse. As for Moe Vellacott, maybe offer him a suite in your basement. He only gets elected in the bible belt north of the city with his hard core anti abortion views. His 4 terms are up, he wins with big pension. Maybe he reads this pathetic blog!!

#12 Waterloo Resident on 05.01.15 at 7:50 pm

In Newmarket, just North of Toronto, that house would sell for $3.4 Million. Easily.

#13 Chaddywack on 05.01.15 at 7:53 pm

He might have to change his phone # after this posting ;)

#14 TS on 05.01.15 at 8:01 pm

The thing that bugs me is he’s going to have a complete gold plated pension for life in excess of $100,000 per year probably.

Does he really need to try to FSBO his place? Come on man…

Maurice “The Space Cowboy” is one cheap MOFO.

#15 Sean on 05.01.15 at 8:04 pm

Do politicians have no shame? Because that is really embarrassing… lol!

#16 Interstellar Old Yeller on 05.01.15 at 8:06 pm

Is that what it costs to live in Convent Glen, nowadays? Yeesh.

#17 Daisy Mae on 05.01.15 at 8:07 pm

“So here’s more proof that FSBO means greed. The DIY seller wants to pay the agent nothing so he can pay himself more. If you think, as a buyer, you’re getting a deal because the commission saving is being passed on to you, think again.”

**********************

How do you explain this, Garth….in a way that we can understand and actually believe it?

“FSBO means greed”?

I call it ‘self-preservation’….better in my pocket than his.

#18 Squirrel meat on 05.01.15 at 8:08 pm

#15 Sean on 05.01.15 at 8:04 pm

Do politicians have no shame? Because that is really embarrassing… lol!
—————————————–
Basically the way the CRAP brains work.

#19 Smoking Man on 05.01.15 at 8:09 pm

Hopefully none of you really think I’m a real alien.especially the likes of the CIA NSA. That could be bad. So I’m going to go with , they telepathically communicate with me, Ever since my encounter with the flying orange plasma ball that hovered over long branch three years ago. Its in the May 2012 archives .

Tonight the voices in my head were laughing. They found this chuck wagon floating between the earth and the moon. Its earthly occupants are alive and singing who wants to live forever while engaged in a sword fight.

So I add my two cents. What’s so funny about that guys.

They said, Smoky, you’re breaking mission code, no drinking till 9pm , shut up until then.

Then an argument breaks out between them.. Who’s dumb idea was it to select a stupid, insane dyslexic human who can’t spell to save his life to get our message out.

Everyone looks at Ashman…

Time to hit the JD after all its Friday night.

#20 DisgustMadeMePost on 05.01.15 at 8:10 pm

http://www.biv.com/article/2015/4/investors-scoop-old-burnaby-apartment-blocks-land-/

The apartments are mostly in two and three storey wood-frame buildings that are 40 or 50 years old, with rents below the Metro Vancouver average.

According to Williams, all of the apartments deemed for development are being replaced by condominiums that will be sold to investors. “Most of these will be put back into the rental market, but they won’t rent for $850,” Williams said. Generally, tenants are given one-year notice and are offered an opportunity to buy or rent in the new condo tower, he said…

“I have 1,000 buyers looking for apartment sites,” said Goold, a specialist in multi-family sales. He said it is not uncommon to have 15 buyers lined up for an open house. “We are seeing multiple bids.”

Goold confirmed that nearly all his recent Burnaby land development sales are to investors from mainland China, which he visited last month on a successful sales trip. “One buyer from China flew over here and paid $40 million cash for a Metrotown site,” Goold said.

…….

Doesn’t matter whether you believe it’s foreign investors or not. Here go more people out of their affordable housing. I suppose they could all find a place to live elsewhere, right?

#21 Ralph Cramdown on 05.01.15 at 8:12 pm

Speaking as an actual FSBO whose place sold for asking,

That guy’s feature sheet is pathetic. And, though the picture is wee and difficult to discern, it sure does look like a RE/Max sign on the lawn.

I can understand why someone would want to sell FSBO. But you should never buy one. — Garth

#22 Willy H on 05.01.15 at 8:16 pm

FSBO may be greedy but I eagerly await the day when realtors go the way of travel agents. A open and transparent listing process, good title insurance and a good realestate lawyer are all you really need. Florida has been operating this way for decades. Yet to meet a single realtor worth me forking over $24K when my house sells just a few weeks (in some cases in the GTA a few days!) after listing in the current market. I would gladly take a few days off for several weeks (even a few months) to show my home and field calls. In a buyer’s market realtors may offer some real value, but only then. Realtors had better get their collective act together because commissions in the current overvalued market should not exceed 4%.

*Title insurance is extremely profitable in both Canada and the US because claims are very very rare. The coverage can be basic or deluxe but generally most policies are under $250. In Canada the biggest risks around title are purchases of properties on lands disputed by First Nations. Worked in this industry for a few years.

#23 Ottawa on 05.01.15 at 8:20 pm

Ottawa prices are more than flat yoy, they are flat from July/August 2011.

#24 Expensive Vancouver.....really on 05.01.15 at 8:22 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/vancouvers-real-estate-boom-the-rising-price-of-heaven/article21071391/?from=24179283&service=mobile

#25 Smoking Man on 05.01.15 at 8:32 pm

Today was a beautiful, never showed up at the tax farm.
Its been awile since I’ve been on a bender.

When you sence the presents of evil. You run then load your rebutal.

Lost the train of thought, cuz just called , no more cancer, woo Fen Hoooo. He gets to live as a girl

he’s missing a prostate gland now..

Personally, any man or doctor that wanted to take mine, would be an FU moment.

Some things are worce than death.

Take my brain , my arm, my balls, you take that…seriously, what’s the point of another day..

But I’m glad he’s not going to die, he’s the only human on this planet I’m close too.

We did some shit in Bangkok in the 90s, its in the vault.

#26 HJD on 05.01.15 at 8:58 pm

“Would you buy a used house from a used MP?” Garth.

Would you follow a weblog written by a used MP?

FSBO? Two things are required. A sound property with asking price reflecting the market value, and experienced lawyers – one for the seller and one for the buyer. Piece of cake.

#27 RayofLight on 05.01.15 at 9:03 pm

#1 Setting the Record Straight on 05.01.15 at 7:24 pm
@Trollstoy on 04.30.15 at 9:57 pm
You hit it out of the park with this post GT, save the one conspicuously absent factor of foreign money skewing the market here.
No credible data to support foreign money having any significant impact on the market.
Prices more likely correlated with cheap credit.
Again, glad that all online data sources support my definition of sub-prime.
I’m in good standing when only one or two penniless, delusional, corporate wage slaves disagree xD
$$$$$&&&&
Like all those who argue foreign money does not affect price levels in Vancouver, you need to provide a credible hypothesis as to the difference in relative prices– that is what explains the price differential between Vancouver and other cities in Canada. Low interest rates, CMHC financing etc are constants not variables across Canada.
Variables that come to mind are city size, income levels, cost of building, land inventories etc.
Mr Turner has not stepped up. Mark stepped up with a theory that Vancouverites are used to engaging in mining speculation, and this had spilled over to the Vancouver housing market. Note I am looking for credible hypotheses.
———————————————————–
To me you seem very full of yourself. Why should anyone give a Rat’s A$$ what you are looking for?

#28 Expensive Vancouver.....really on 05.01.15 at 9:05 pm

Delusional vancouver garth calls it.
Funny, considering the only delusional person here is him……….
Offshore dough denier .
SM is sooooo right about the schooled being the dumbest of us all.

Wow. An anonymous Internet insult. How will I ever recover? — Garth

#29 Smoking Man on 05.01.15 at 9:14 pm

Garth , just an observation, 26 comments in the last few hours…

Dandi lions , theyre buying real estate , or trying to make DNA copies of their selves, void of the move.

They will be frustrated and back shortly.

#30 S.Bby on 05.01.15 at 9:15 pm

#20 Disgust:
Burnaby doesn’t care about lower income housing when there is a dollar to be made in taxes they sell out to the developers. These older apts. are perfectly livable but will be destroyed for more condos. Metrotown particularly is being condofied in the extreme. Anthem properties and Beedie Group who co-own the Metrotown mall where Save-On Foods was located actually demolished their mall to build condo towers. It’s kind of ironic that some local developers are now being outbid by foreign interests for the apartment lands.

#31 Setting the Record Straight on 05.01.15 at 9:17 pm

———————————————————–
To me you seem very full of yourself. Why should anyone give a Rat’s A$$ what you are looking for?
&&&&&&
That was helpful. What a useful contribution! You should be proud.

#32 Andrew on 05.01.15 at 9:17 pm

Here’s the real house porn for the day: The author of everybody’s favourite calculus textbook died recently. His mathematical house, “one of the most important private houses built in North America in a long time”, is now on sale for $28M, right here in Toronto.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB123872378357585295

http://sothebysrealty.ca/en/property/ontario/greater-toronto-area-real-estate/toronto/73147/

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/05/01/yours-for-23m-a-house-of-outstanding-mathematical-beauty.html

Taxes are only $90K/yr.

#33 young & foolish on 05.01.15 at 9:25 pm

Western Central Banks’ policy:

“Thou shalt take from the savers and giveth unto debtors”

#34 FTP - First Time Poster on 05.01.15 at 9:34 pm

Way to feign disgust with a former fellow MP by giving him a boatload of free advertising Garth! For the emotionally balanced & rational people in the world, there is nothing wrong with FSBO provided that:

1) You arent a greedy pig & price by what the market dictates;
2) Are patient & address the concerns of potential buyers by being honest & forthright.

It’s not for everyone, but have done it twice myself with great success & buyers who appreciated the lengths i went to in answering all their questions & compromising when necessary.

#35 Expensive Vancouver.....really on 05.01.15 at 9:38 pm

DELETED

#36 The honourable FSBO | Realties.ca on 05.01.15 at 9:41 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/05/01/the-honourable-fsbo-2/ […]

#37 rawdiswar on 05.01.15 at 9:42 pm

So, let’s say CMHC didn’t exist. Potential buyers would have to go to the banks to get mortgages, as they do now. But without the CMHC providing the insurance, the banks would have to price in the risk of loaning money to those with 5%-20% down. Would this not result in either less money being lent, or an additional premium being added to the interest rate? Both of these outcomes would then have the eventual result of lower house prices.

CMHC has caused a sub-prime mortgage bubble, period. Deny it if you want, but it’s the same thing as the Yanks, Money lent to people that will have very real trouble paying it back if anything goes wrong financially. And I know of very few people who didn’t need CMHC insurance when purchasing.

#38 lee on 05.01.15 at 9:44 pm

You people keep forgetting Vancouver only has 50,000 fully detaches single family homes. There are 7 Billion people living outside North America looking for balmy climates. Prices may not go up muc more soon but give take 5 per cent 1.2 million seems about right if not a tad low. Toronto is just confusing. I don’t see people banging down doors to conme to Toronto. 1 million in TO is a tad high, but not much.

#39 Nagraj on 05.01.15 at 9:46 pm

There’s no such creature as a successful politician who isn’t also a complete dullard. That don’t mean that they have to have a low IQ.
It means they’re without real eccentricities, visible foibles, unpopular prejudices (or beliefs) – and sport no Jackson Pollock print in the living room.

Most of them, I dare say, still look like they crawled out of the last Eaton’s catalogue. Kinda like the folks in the Jehovah’s Witnesses pamphlets.

Their metier is legalizing theft.
OF COURSE they don’t see it that way. Au contraire, they drape themselves with every private and public virtue imaginable. And they’re fully invested in their own ginned up humility and execrable pomposity.

When joblessness is low – we let ’em be. When the economy tanks – we hang ’em, one way or another.

It must be a hellish boredom for an individualist to have to hang out with these incarnations of the lowest common denominator.
Gag me with a spoon. Make that a high baroque soup ladle.

#40 TheGreatGonzo on 05.01.15 at 9:49 pm

Found this pathetic blog a few years back and try to check it regularly. Even got an answer from you a couple years back, thanks for that, your advise was heeded.

Thanks for the blog Garth, and your great effort to keep it fresh on a daily basis. I’ll try to contribute on a going forward basis… don’t know how some of the regulars find the time.

#41 Ralph Cramdown on 05.01.15 at 9:53 pm

Garth, I don’t understand your antipathy toward FSBO.

Yes, it is a complete minefield for both sides — but so are brokered deals.

For a FSBO seller, you are off MLS, the #1 site buyers look at. Even if you buy onto MLS via a discount lister, many buyers’ agents will ignore you. This cuts down your customer audience, which sucks, no two ways about it.

For a FSBO buyer, you’re likely dealing with a cheap, cantankerous, unrealistic idiot seller. Whose property has been exposed to fewer than the maximum number of buyers, and has probably scared off a number of the ones that have been ‘exposed.’ That ought to affect price.

Either way, it helps to know the market estimate for the property, which can be had for a few hundred bucks from a local appraiser, who has access to recent MLS solds.

But the value of playing heads-up poker with the other party in the transaction without having to go through two bad telephone operators (at 2.5% each) shouldn’t be underestimated.

In my market, typical agent fees are a bit under 5%. There’s a lot of value there to be split. Even if the buyer manages to give it all to the seller, he’s no worse off than if he’d bought through an agent — and how often does a FSBO seller manage to acheive what an MLS sale would? I think the difficult assumption is that most MLS transactions are reasonable deals for the buyer, with the agent adding value. I think a lot of crap gets sold on MLS, with the brokers merely making off with the buyer’s downpayment in commissions.

#42 Hammer Girl on 05.01.15 at 9:57 pm

Would you sell your house to big bird? Bidding wars in Hamilton a spill over from 416ers looking for a deal.
https://instagram.com/p/2J1ATWLjC9/

#43 Nora Lenderby on 05.01.15 at 10:12 pm

Blimey! You gotta feel for the guy. Has to sell the Ottawa pad and takes a crayon to what looks like the listing from when he bought the place.

I’m kind of surprised he didn’t stick these flyers to all the lamp posts in the area.

Rats. Sinking ship.

#44 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 05.01.15 at 10:13 pm

No Zillow for you.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/05/01/competition-bureau-real-estate-ruling_n_7192072.html

#45 OttawaMike on 05.01.15 at 10:16 pm

Looks like a ransom note.

Place $435,000 in unmarked bills in a cardboard box to complete the deal, no agents are to be involved or the house gets it.

#46 jrochest on 05.01.15 at 10:23 pm

I’m pleased to see Saskabush mentioned here — especially since inventory here is higher than ever in the recorded history of the MLS — but what the eff does Saskatoon have to do with this FSBO? It’s in Ottawa, yes?

You’re dead right about Saskatoon, and about this MP, but…I’m obviously missing something.

#47 Todd on 05.01.15 at 10:46 pm

#9 Todd on 05.01.15 at 7:45 pm
If he found a greater fool to pay full price and that greater fool used an agent, the discount without an agent would be a better deal for the buyer. After paying buyer agent his 2.5% the MP’s net would be $438750. Buyer’s are conditioned to think their agent’s services are free. That couldn’t be further from the truth.

The buyer’s agent shares the commission the seller hands over. — Garth

Shares with whom? Certainly you aren’t suggesting that the buyer agent gives some money to the buyer.

Sigh. The seller pays the listing agent who shares with the buyer’s agent and then both agents normally share with their brokers. — Garth

#48 mdm on 05.01.15 at 10:48 pm

I don’t see how buyers are so protected without a realtor. Something goes wrong, the realtor and their broker are on the hook as well….the seller is already in Mexico!

#49 RayofLight on 05.01.15 at 10:54 pm

To me you seem very full of yourself. Why should anyone give a Rat’s A$$ what you are looking for?
&&&&&&
That was helpful. What a useful contribution! You should be proud.
—————-
I stand by my original premise.

#50 Nemesis on 05.01.15 at 11:11 pm

“Would you buy a used house from a used MP?” – HonGT

#FunnyYouShouldSayThat,AuldPol… #Depends…

#2Amusing&Timely… #HistoricalArtefacts… #OfThe,”WouldYouBuyAUsed…”…

https://youtu.be/U5tgrssDn1w

https://youtu.be/I9LcAJOsFGg

#51 liquidincalgary on 05.01.15 at 11:20 pm

#1

Like all those who argue foreign money does not affect price levels in Vancouver, you need to provide a credible hypothesis as to the difference in relative prices– that is what explains the price differential

===============================================

trollstoy/sm explains nothing to no one!

#52 kommykim on 05.01.15 at 11:22 pm

RE: #17 Daisy Mae on 05.01.15 at 8:07 pm
How do you explain this, Garth….in a way that we can understand and actually believe it?
“FSBO means greed”?
I call it ‘self-preservation’….better in my pocket than his

I agree. Is someone who fixes their own car “greedy” because they refuse to over pay a mechanic to do a simple repair?
Lets face it Garth. House prices have out paced the wages of average Canadians. Realtors’ commissions have inflated right along with house prices to the point where we are grossly overpaying for the “service” Realtors provide.

If a FSBO wants to avoid paying commish (and take the risks involved) the saving should be passed to the buyer. Sadly most pocket the difference, offering no benefit to buyers. That’s greedy. This site teems with people decrying those they think help inflate prices. Look in the mirror. — Garth

#53 Bill on 05.01.15 at 11:24 pm

I don’t understand the hate for FSBO. I understand that you’ll get wider market if you sell through a realtor but for 20 thousand bucks (after tax) its worth trying yourself. I actually like Velacott more after reading this. It shows he hasn’t lost touch with what a dollar’s worth.

#54 TurnerNation on 05.01.15 at 11:26 pm

Still hanging with my Realtress. Coming up on 1 yr now. It’s Bye vs.Rent for me. (Kandos are junk.)

#55 Carpe Diem on 05.01.15 at 11:34 pm

Smoking Man …

Habs versus Lightning Game … double OT … Habs lose.

Folks in TO don’t remember what hockey is anymore ;-)

Hence, so little comments this evening!

Hockey …. Herdonamics x 10. Look here, look here while somewhere in the world we or an ally bomb a city.

Hell, I’m even look “here”.

#56 millenial1982 on 05.01.15 at 11:39 pm

I see houses go up all the time FSBO. They almost always turn to agents in no time at all…about 2-4 weeks. It’s easy to notice in a small town. The com free and no realty fee type sites are really not that popular.

It would seem to me some cities and towns will have a ceiling price on RE due to the availability of land to build on. Like hell I’d buy anything over $400,000 when I could get even a contractor to build something reasonable for less on a$65,000 lot with city services.

#57 Squirrel meat on 05.01.15 at 11:39 pm

I wonder if Puffy Duffy will be selling his soon.. when he returns to his PEI main residence!

#58 paddler on 05.01.15 at 11:42 pm

Vancouver home sells for $2,000,000 over asking price. Hard to believe but true. It appears that “the sky is the limit” in Vancouver.

http://www.theprovince.com/business/mortgages/Vancouver+home+sells+more+than+million+above+listed/11018591/story.html

#59 dienekes on 05.01.15 at 11:52 pm

If a FSBO wants to avoid paying commish (and take the risks involved) the saving should be passed to the buyer. Sadly most pocket the difference, offering no benefit to buyers. That’s greedy. This site teems with people decrying those they think help inflate prices. Look in the mirror. — Garth

But Garth, the realtor said the seller pays the commission when you buy a house. How could they pass any savings to the buyer. You mean the commission adds to the selling price and the money comes out of the buyers pocket?

I am being very sarcastic
I puke every time a realtor spews that crap, and they believe it.

#60 Snowboid on 05.01.15 at 11:52 pm

It’s official, HAM has arrived in the Okanagan, according to a local builder Randy Shier.

“What we’re seeing new in this market that we’ve never seen before, we’re actually selling to Chinese buyers from mainland China and Chinese buyers from Vancouver”

Watch out Vancouver and Toronto, Kelowna will soon have average prices in the millions too. Better buy now or be priced out forever!

http://globalnews.ca/news/1975009/group-of-new-investors-heating-up-the-central-okanagan/

On the FSBO front, we purchased one home from a FSBO back in the 1970s. It worked out okay, but we didn’t try that again.

As experienced by the following site, FSBOs are also delusional about pricing, some of the properties on this site have been listed for years!

http://www.okhomeseller.com/Content/Okanagan-BC-real-estate.asp#60KA

#61 waiting on the westcoast on 05.01.15 at 11:53 pm

My parents were recently approached to sell their acreage. They told the agent they wanted reduced fees and he was happy to discount. I think that is a better method than to head down the fsbo chasm.

#62 Cici on 05.01.15 at 11:59 pm

Just got on late here…sorry, hockey went into major overtime and I needed cheesecake and an espresso to recover from the stress…good work Canadians, it was close and you put up a damn good fight.

Now, about that MP’s home sale flyer…as much as I love to dump on politicians (especially those with an ultra right-wing bent), I pretty sure this is a hoax…I mean, seriously, the MP doesn’t have a home computer and printer, or can’t afford to order up some professional-looking flyers?

If this is for real, his wife probably just handed him divorce papers and he’s filled with terror at the prospect of facing bankruptcy.

*Here’s some advice for the boys tonight (well, those that want to hold on to their net worths):

– Experiment and have lots of wild sex BEFORE you get married.
– Do not cheat on your wife (but if you are that dumb, don’t get caught).
– If you need a trophy wife but don’t want to get taken by a gold digger, move the majority of your holdings to some shadow account in the Caymen Islands and retire there after divorce has led you to declare bankruptcy.

#63 45north on 05.02.15 at 12:02 am

Would you buy a used house from a used MP?

why couldn’t he just sell with a realtor? seems he’s trying to cash in on being an MP

Setting the Record Straight: You hit it out of the park with this post GT, save the one conspicuously absent factor of foreign money skewing the market here.

Note I am looking for credible hypotheses.

Here’s an article saying that there has been a massive flight of capital out of China, much of it to Canada.

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/glavin-canadas-unhappy-affair-with-chinas-millionaires

Andrew Woburn: “Our Work Here Is Done: Visions of a Robot Economy”

that strikes a chord with me. Technology, successful technology disappears. In my work at Agriculture Canada I helped develop computer mapping. 30 years ago it was very difficult. now it’s routine.

Rosie: from your link: It’s a setback for Canadians looking for a more do-it-yourself approach to real estate. The ruling, released Friday, said that the Canadian Real Estate Association’s (CREA) current restrictions on the amount of information low-fee agents post on their popular realtor.ca website or any website that links to it are fair and do not contravene competition regulations.

it’s also a setback for those of us looking to get a straight take on the market. politicians need to attack the real estate boards. I suppose they will after the market collapses. Sort of like shutting the barn door after the horses leave.

jrochest: what does Saskatoon have to do with this FSBO? It’s in Ottawa, yes?

I had the same problem, it’s confusing. I do understand that Vellacott is the MP from Saskatoon.

#64 Mark on 05.02.15 at 12:02 am

Crazy, my mother went to elementary school with Maurice Vellacott.

“Would this not result in either less money being lent, or an additional premium being added to the interest rate? Both of these outcomes would then have the eventual result of lower house prices. “

Welcome to the blog! I’ve been arguing this for years. It would definitely result in a far more balanced Canadian economy, that’s for sure. Instead of an overwhelming slant towards RE and consumption as a source of economic activity.

#65 Kat Frank on 05.02.15 at 12:05 am

Here’s the way you punt out thousands of flyers in short order while only get off your butt…once. The PO have what they call route walks. You take your flyer(s) down to the PO and tell them where you want to drop the load…and voila…for a few bucks you can hand out thousands of flyers a week.

HINT…it’s also a good way to find houses for sale from other people who haven’t thought of using ( or won’t use) an agent. I reeled plenty of fish this way. People call you for all sorts of reasons…they might have a house full of stuff….old cars……and some even want a new house ( or know a relation who wants to live in the area and also hates agents….for good reason) for their kid or parents or friends.

I know G denigrates FSBO’s at every opportunity…..but the unregulated market in Canada is pegged at 140 billion dollars…..meaning there are plenty of people with big boy pants out there who can handle things without a pimp or a pusher to misle them.

The dollar stores still stock FSBO signs for a reason. I’ve sold FSBO to immigrants and lawyers…..it’s not at all complicated…and way cheaper to have a lawyer do the paperwork….hire an inspector etc…fix the closing dates and financing than the outrageous commish the half baked agents take. I don’t know how people under a certain age have become so scared and useless at doing things for themselves?

#66 kommykim on 05.02.15 at 12:31 am

RE: Garth on 05.01.15 at 11:22 pm
If a FSBO wants to avoid paying commish (and take the risks involved) the saving should be passed to the buyer

Shouldn’t that be more like a 50/50 split since the FSBO is doing all the “work” that his Realtor would do, such as advertising, showing it, talking to the buyer, etc? If you are going to give up all of the $20,000 commission to the buyer, why not just “give” it to a Realtor, sit back, and be done with it? There’s no point in going FSBO if you’re going to end up netting the same $ for your house as you would using the Realtor.

#67 Stoolie's Choice on 05.02.15 at 12:41 am

Garth

Does the house come with a seat in the Commons, or will the throne speeches all be emanating from the loo….it would be incredibly ironic if rich foreign investors snapped this up for the “prestige” value!

#68 Karlhungus on 05.02.15 at 12:45 am

Ah Garth hahahah,
Have you ever sold something to someone? Is there some “middleman” you should be paying when you do sell something ?

“The savings should be passed on to the buyer” is a ridiculous statement. If you sell a car to someone, should you discount the price because there is no dealership involved?

#69 Stoolie's Choice on 05.02.15 at 12:46 am

#25 Smoking Man on 05.01.15 at 8:32 pm

Would it to be a fair to classify this chap’s blog posts as kind of a B or C grade Charles Bukowski-esque?

#70 Cici on 05.02.15 at 12:47 am

#32 Andrew

Ick, truly one of the ugliest and most institutional looking houses I’ve ever seen.

Weird that such a bright person could have such gawdy-awful taste.

#71 Cici on 05.02.15 at 12:58 am

#46 jrochest

Yeah kind of confusing…I gather he is a Reform party dude from Saskatoon who had a pad in Ottawa while he was serving as an MP. The MP gig is coming to an end (he won’t be running in the next election), so he’s looking to cash out of Ottawa and return to Saskabush.

Garth or someone else, please correct me if I’m wrong.

#72 Blacksheep on 05.02.15 at 1:19 am

saskatoon # 188,

“if interest on debt incurred through infinite fractional reserve banking is good for society…”

Drop the fractional reserve reference, it hurts your creditability cause anybody that understands the topic knows it’s irrelevant to the discussion.

It’s simply called: Commercial Bank Deposit Creation.

And I never said “debt” was good, for anybody.

“how can this be beneficial if there isn’t nearly enough credit (money) for society to pay back BOTH the interest PLUS the principal?”

Like I said: “I believe this part of the banking system is beneficial to the public (other than the need for constant expansion)”

I already conceded the flaw in which the system requires constant expansion.

I don’t have all (any of?) the solutions, like many others here, I come to learn. I attempt to share knowledge gleaned and expose the deceivers. Once you realize, the system is truly omnipotent, you will stop ’tilting at windmills’.

Until shared knowledge, attains critical mass, it is just a waste of energy. Spread the truth, but leave out the emotion.

#73 Sathington Willoughby on 05.02.15 at 1:23 am

A seller’s agent does little to earn their commissions! Snap a few pictures, type a few words, slap a lock box on the door and wait…wait for the other agents to bring buyers.

There is sooo much more value in buying from a legit agent versus a FSBO, spare me! All you need is a good lawyer and no emotional attachment to the property and you get to keep more money in YOUR own pocket!

What are the chances the realtor is less greedy than the FSBO?

#74 PM on 05.02.15 at 3:25 am

Why not split the commission between both parties?

#75 Tantalus on 05.02.15 at 3:55 am

Vancouver houses were supposed to crash in 2008. Then 2009. Then 2010. Then 2011. Then 2012. Then 2013. Then 2014. And now, in 2015, they will crash any day now?

I’m sure they will crash someday. Could be next month. Could be in 20 years. But nobody knows when. And that’s the fact. And to think that an MP knows something that we don’t is laughable. Even the top well-connected and well-informed global financial gurus, wealth managers, and economists can’t agree.

I only respect people who say, “I think it is POSSIBLE that is going to happen.”

But if you proclaim, “THIS is what is going to happen…” you are a fool in my eyes.

#76 Honey Dripper on 05.02.15 at 7:16 am

If you stick a FSBO sign on your lawn and an agent knocks on your door asking you what his/her commish would be for selling your house. Have a number in mind. Unless of course you think bringing you in buyers should be free. What about showing your house? Will it always be a mad scramble to clean up the mess, when someone comes knocking? You should be willing to part with a small commission to anyone who brings in a buyer. If not, you know nothing about making/saving money

#77 David McDonald on 05.02.15 at 8:19 am

Hi Garth,

My post from last night never appeared after I hit submit. There is a technical glitch. No great loss; there was no great insight.

#78 Ralph Cramdown on 05.02.15 at 8:45 am

#74 PM — “Why not split the commission between both parties?”

Because there’s no commission to split. Coming up with a theoretical number that a house “should” sell for but that the seller won’t get and the buyer won’t pay, and then deducting half of what the non-existing agents and brokers “would have” gotten is lunacy, because it’s based on an unknowable number — unless you’re selling a tract home or a condo in a fast market with lots of nearly identical comparables.

The seller bargains for the highest price he can achieve, and the buyer bargains for the lowest, just as if it were a brokered transaction. The seller will probably achieve a lower gross price than if he’d hired an agent, because of his reduced exposure, and because some buyers are afraid of FSBOs. If he achieves a lower NET price than if he’d sold through an agent, he’s probably a poor marketer or negotiator, and should have hired an agent.

P.S. Listing agent fees are negotiable, too, and the best way to get a deal (and find out who the hungry agents in your neighbourhood are) is to hang out a FSBO sign. And of course you should offer an agent a split if he brings a buyer, assuming you’re actually trying to sell the place.

#79 NEVER GIVE UP on 05.02.15 at 8:48 am

Garth- Not sure why you are so down on FSBO

To the buyer it is a simple comparable.

Any buyer should be looking at all comparables in the hood they want including FSBO.

I bought my first home in ’86 in Maple Ridge BC. Bought it for a very reasonable 80K from an FSBO and I was very happy with the deal that went down without any problems.

I don’t care if they seller saves a buck or two. It likely leaves more on the table if you are a hard negotiator.

In the end who can calculate what would have come out better. Buying from FSBO or through a realtor. Every deal is so different.

It boils down to whether or not you are happy with the purchase in the end.

At the time I bought the FSBO the papers were reporting that FSBO homes were actually closing much faster than listed homes. Since it was many years ago I cant remember the details but it struck me as interesting and I remembered it.

#80 Circling Vulture on 05.02.15 at 8:52 am

I live in Ottawa and I’ve heard so many times how “it’s different here”.

I’ve had my eye on a townhouse for the past 4 months (who knows how long it’s been on the market). It’s an end unit, decent neighborhood, recently renovated, and looks pretty nice from the pictures. In the past 4 months, the price has dropped by $10,000. There’s an open house this weekend, and if there’s no takers, I’m expecting another $5,000 price decrease very soon.

But it’s different here, right?

#81 Calgary Boomer on 05.02.15 at 9:04 am

This story is funny and the comment above about it looking like a ransom note – lol!

But I too find it odd that you are such a hater on fsbo. If a buyer does his homework, he should understand what the house is worth and with a decent lawyer, should be able to cover his ass. Why is it so wrong to keep the cash in your own pocket if you do all the work? Why does the seller have to discount to reflect no agents? That’s up to the buyer to negotiate.

I hate it when everyone thinks that selling a house is so special that you need to pay 2 guys tens of thousands to do it. It’s not that different than selling my car or old toaster on kijiji. It’s just stuff that we both agree on a price to sell. I sold my house fsbo and before the buyer signed, looked me in the eye and said “I think this is a fair price”. And he confirmed by getting an assessment It’s so weird that Garth thinks the fsbo seller should give the buyer the amount that would have gone to a realtor. Why not also say go with a fund with a high MER instead of an etf. The only stupid part of the RE industry is that the cartel is the only ones allowed to have access to all the info, like it’s a big secret. Still can’t believe the govt allows this. Realtors have helped drive the prices up and commisions may have made sense in the old days but not at these inflated levels. Fsbo needs to keep happening if we all really want to get rid of the cartel.

#82 Ralph Cramdown on 05.02.15 at 9:06 am

“how can this be beneficial if there isn’t nearly enough credit (money) for society to pay back BOTH the interest PLUS the principal?”

What makes people think that we want to pay back the debt, or to be repaid? Is society going through some sort of temporary phase where half the people need to borrow money from the other half, but it will eventually be repaid, and nobody will owe anybody anything?

And of course there’s another issue. Sometimes the money doesn’t get repaid because of default. Ask the Germans if they’re going to get back all their money from the Greeks. Or anybody who’s ever lent money to Argentina. Wishing won’t make it so.

#83 Wooba on 05.02.15 at 9:23 am

If a FSBO wants to avoid paying commish (and take the risks involved) the saving should be passed to the buyer. Sadly most pocket the difference, offering no benefit to buyers. That’s greedy. This site teems with people decrying those they think help inflate prices. Look in the mirror. — Garth

Do you work for free Garth? I don’t.

I agree with you on the vast majority of things but your wrong on this issue.

Despite what many people here like to say about agents doing nothing for their money, I think that a GOOD agent deserves to be paid, but even then the dollar amounts are absurd. House prices have have risen way beyond inflation making agent fees completely out of whack. That’s why there’s 40,000 odd agents in the GTA alone!

I sold my place FSBO. Make no mistake about it, it’s a fair bit of work and not the walk in the park some may think. It took a fair bit of my time and unfortunately a lot of of that was dealing with agents wasting my time (and often boldly lying to my face). I deserved to be paid for my time. Not the same as a full time agent perhaps, but I earned that money.

I was selling at fair market value and the person who bought tried to get a full 5% discount because I was FSBO. I explained to them why this was unfair and met them somewhere in the middle. They felt that was fair and everyone was happy. They got a discount and I got more than I would have had I used an agent. Win/win.

Are there greedy FSBO sellers? I don’t doubt it. But there’s no shortage of greedy sellers using agents either. Even in a hot market like Toronto there are places that have stagnated on the market for months, sometimes years through multiple agents because the sellers are standing firm on stupid prices.

#84 Nora Lenderby on 05.02.15 at 9:26 am

#75 Tantalus on 05.02.15 at 3:55 am

I’m sure they will crash someday. Could be next month. Could be in 20 years. But nobody knows when. And that’s the fact. And to think that an MP knows something that we don’t is laughable. Even the top well-connected and well-informed global financial gurus, wealth managers, and economists can’t agree.

I only respect people who say, “I think it is POSSIBLE that is going to happen.”

But if you proclaim, “THIS is what is going to happen…” you are a fool in my eyes.

With all due respect, when a structure looks unsafe, is designed with parameters that have historically proven to be unsafe, people then keep loading more stuff on top, but it doesn’t fall just then – does that make the structure safe?

Your “top well-connected and well-informed global financial gurus, wealth managers, and economists*” do agree at present about Canada’s economy and house prices. They only marvel at how long this bubble has been inflating in spite of years of warnings and advice to the contrary.

* The IMF, Deutches Bank, the Economist magazine to name but three sources. Google it, lad.

#85 Julia on 05.02.15 at 9:46 am

Some agents cutting their commissions:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/real-estate-agents-slashing-commissions-in-easy-to-sell-markets-1.3054156

I wonder if it is really because “houses sell themselves” or because there is too much competition between agents themselves.

I don’t see any signs FSBO in my neighbourhood, I think I have only seen 1 in the last 10 years. Houses, when priced right, sell in less than a week over asking. There is 1 house that has been on the market for a few weeks, with 2 price drops, but it was priced too high right from the start. Greedy flipper bought a Toronto Community Housing cast off, did a quick and cheap update and tried asking an insane amount of money.

#86 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 05.02.15 at 10:20 am

Vancouver has been being sold to the Chinese since they discovered the city at Expo!! One could see how fast and furious they came in after that. Just look at the cover of our new Federal budget. Blue backgound and a big photo of a nice Chinese family. What’s the message in that Garth. This is the demographic now in Canada. I was told by a nurse in North Van that the Chinese fly in 9 months pregnant, pay to have their baby in Canada so that that child is Canadian. Then they all fly home. Then they can easily come here to school and later bring their parents over. Seemless. If their is anything is wrong with the child they just fly home…. without the baby. They are so smart.

I have left this message for all to see. The anti-Chinese and racist sentiment now extent in YVR is a national stain. Daily I delete such posts here, made by people who are unworthy of our respect on so many levels. Neighbours of Asian heritage who have lived here for generations are now branded as ‘Chinese’. It is reminiscent of the internment of Canadian citizens of Japanese ancestry during WW2, for which we atone. What are we fighting for now? Houses. How sad is that? — Garth

#87 Daisy Mae on 05.02.15 at 10:20 am

#53 Bill: “I don’t understand the hate for FSBO. I understand that you’ll get wider market if you sell through a realtor but for 20 thousand bucks (after tax) its worth trying yourself…”

**********************

House next door sold in a day. Simply because the realtor had a buyer waiting in the wings for just such a creek side property. This is worth the exorbitant realtor fee?

#88 Mr. Pink on 05.02.15 at 10:27 am

The Department of Finance releases a document comparing the state Alberta is in to the 1980’s recession to make people feel better before they head to the election polls on Tuesday. I’m not making this up.

http://www.flamboroughreview.com/news-story/5598652-no-1980s-flashback-for-alberta-real-estate/

#89 Jsan on 05.02.15 at 10:31 am

Hey Garth, your “favorite” blog is talking about Canada’s housing market again.

“Presenting The Most Overvalued Housing Market In The World In One Chart”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-02/presenting-most-overvalued-housing-market-world-one-chart#comment-6053395

#90 Grantmi on 05.02.15 at 11:00 am

#58 paddler on 05.01.15 at 11:42 pm
Vancouver home sells for $2,000,000 over asking price. Hard to believe but true. It appears that “the sky is the limit” in Vancouver.

Of course… When u have corrupt cash fleeing the country in millions.. What do u care. You’ve got to park it fast. $2M…. That’s nothing…

Poor, sad, victimized Canadians. When someone has more money than you, they must be ‘corrupt’. How pathetic we look to the rest of the world. — Garth

#91 Grantmi on 05.02.15 at 11:14 am

How pathetic we look to the rest of the world. — Garth

Yes.. How pathetic indeed… When the rest of the world sees where second behind the USA for most wanted fugitives just from one country alone!

http://ow.ly/3xOGXq

Just go away. You are not welcome on this blog. — Garth

#92 Russ L on 05.02.15 at 11:29 am

CHERRY BLOSSOM on 05.02.15 at 10:20 am
…was told by a nurse in North Van that the Chinese fly in 9 months pregnant, pay to have their baby in Canada …. If their is anything is wrong with the child they just fly home…. without the baby. They are so smart.
****************************

I dunno Garth, flying home without the baby does seem kinda smart.
What if it’s a girl? :)

I could comment on incorrect use of “their” or lack of question mark after asking a clear question. But that doesn’t help clarify the subject.

#93 ACRONYMS For the Masses on 05.02.15 at 11:35 am

Forget about FSBOs.
Most HAM buy houses COD (Cash on Delivery)

#94 we are number 1 .......in housing price on 05.02.15 at 11:42 am

anada has the Most Overvalued Housing Market in World [Chart]
JEFF DESJARDINS
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/canada-has-the-most-overvalued-housing-market-in-world-chart/

#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.02.15 at 11:42 am

Timely article in the G&M.
Notice the picture in the article:
Liz Taylor (is she still alive?) is now flogging houses for REMAX.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/the-real-estate-beat/competition-tribunal-dismisses-complaint-from-low-fee-broker/article24217781/

#96 BG on 05.02.15 at 11:42 am

Garth,

Can Revenu Quebec decide to treat TFSA differently than CRA?

Since I emigrated here, I noticed they enjoy being a pain in the neck.

Mais non. — Garth

#97 CALGARY HORSE HOCKEY on 05.02.15 at 11:57 am

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/albertas-housing-sector-is-hurting-but-its-no-1980s-flashback-feds-302294461.html?cx_navSource=d-top-image

As believable as horses playing hockey!

#98 Ralph Cramdown on 05.02.15 at 12:09 pm

By gum, there will be consensus on this issue! Even if every last dissenter has to be shot!

#99 Drill Baby Drill on 05.02.15 at 12:12 pm

#45 OttawaMike
“Looks like a Ransom Note”

Now that is funny. Also eerily realistic.

#100 Mister Obvious on 05.02.15 at 12:38 pm

House next door sold in a day. Simply because the realtor had a buyer waiting in the wings for just such a creek side property. This is worth the exorbitant realtor fee?
=============================

Of course the answer is clearly a big YES. When I sold my place in 2010 I’m pretty sure my realtor knew who was going to buy it and what that party was willing to pay. I got my asking price, even after commission, so I thanked my realtor and walked away happy. Bargain!

#101 april on 05.02.15 at 1:00 pm

Aussie jurock pumping RE again in Vancouver………..Michael Campbell Sat morn CKNW. Isn’t CMHC full of ex realtors?

#102 Snowboid on 05.02.15 at 1:01 pm

Our last two home transactions (sale Victoria, buy Phoenix) were with discount brokerages.

In Victoria we paid about 1/3 the normal commission, the buyers’ agent first offer included an additional commission, which we crossed out on the counter offer.

Not sure if the buyer paid more, but we certainly didn’t.

When we bought in Phoenix, we received a portion of our brokers’ commission, about $ 1000 – not bad.

We are using a good agent in Kelowna as we believe it’s shaping up to be the right time to vultch. We have a lowball offer in on a nice property near the lake, where we know the owner is wanting a cash deal and quick completion (they are leaving the country).

Should know in a couple of days, and if they go for it we will be owners here again, luckily still under the rule of 90-age for our total RE vs Net worth.

#103 SWL1976 on 05.02.15 at 1:03 pm

#72 Blacksheep

Until shared knowledge, attains critical mass, it is just a waste of energy. Spread the truth, but leave out the emotion

Very good point Blacksheep.

I myself have had to learn this lesson. I find it is much easier to leave emotion out of it if a rational conversation can be had, but once the name calling starts it is time to give the subject some space. First off uncovering the truth has been up until now a very difficult task and still is, but the internet has been an amazing tool if you know where to look for what is really going on. I still believe though that critical thinking and observation skills are best to peice together this puzzle. Afterall it is like trying to solve an unfolding mystery for the ‘elites’ and secret societies keep secrets for a reason. We might not always get it right the first time, but looking at things from many different perspectives is good.

Now for critical mass. That one is the difficult one, and most people depending on their level of conditioning are just not ready for the truth. Imagine realizing one day that everything you thought you believed as the truth was really a lie, and indeed a conspiracy? Tough pill to swallow. So that is why it is far easier to put your head back in the sand and go with the distractions.

I find the best way to wake people up, is slowly (but I will admit that sometimes I go too far too quick) and that turns people off. However, I have noticed that dropping clues and giving people time to think and see for themselves is best. After they do, they usually are surprised how they could not see it all right before their eyes much sooner.

Like the saying goes… not being able to see the forest for the trees

It is time we all dropped the racism, name calling, and senseless bickering to figure out what is really going on and realize that indeed… We are all in this together

#104 Millmech on 05.02.15 at 1:11 pm

Who cares if the so called HAM pushes prices up, just think about it for a minute.They are buying into YVR and pushing up prices to protect their interests if the housing gasbag in China deflates/collapses.correct?When and if that happens there will no longer be any money flooding in to keep YVR prices buoyant,thus prices here would decline also.The smart money always buys low and sells high,sell to whoever wants to buy at these valuations and buy back when it is in distress.

#105 Tantalus on 05.02.15 at 1:35 pm

#84… “Your ‘top well-connected and well-informed global financial gurus, wealth managers, and economists*’ do agree at present about Canada’s economy and house prices. They only marvel at how long this bubble has been inflating in spite of years of warnings and advice to the contrary.

* The IMF, Deutches Bank, the Economist magazine to name but three sources. Google it, lad.”

You just proved my point. These predictions aren’t new. I have been Googling it. Major, reputable economic entities all wrong. Wrong for years and years. I have a Vancouver newspaper article from 2005 clipped. The headline is “Like all bubbles, the housing market will burst”. All of these sources of doom have been discredited. How many times does someone have to be wrong before you stop believing them and thinking for yourself?

I’m beginning to think that maybe all this insane global QE, which is creating money out of thin air and using it to cancel debt, will eventually spill over from the asset bubbles into the mainstream economy. Central banks won’t quit. They’ll possibly print until suddenly one day we’ll awake to hyperinflation.

“Like lightning it struck. No one was prepared.” – Ralph Foster commenting on Weimar Republic hyperinflation of the 1920s.

#106 Ralph Cramdown on 05.02.15 at 1:36 pm

The Mop and Pail is at it again.

Last June, the publisher endorsed Tim Hudak’s Ontario Progressive Conservatives in the provincial election, but only to win a minority. How voters were expected to mark their ballots for a minority government was not explained.

Yesterday, it endorsed Jim Prentice’s Progressive Conservatives to govern Alberta, but in a minority. Once again, no explanation.

At least Hudak’s party was in the running to place. The latest polls show Prentice’s party being reduced to a rump, sitting with the Liberals in the back corner. Of course, strange things have happened in Alberta elections before.

It takes principles to endorse the third place party, especially after your editorial admits that it has grossly mismanaged the province’s finances. Or rocks for brains.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/

#107 april on 05.02.15 at 1:53 pm

#7 – that rag paper???

#108 Porsche on 05.02.15 at 1:53 pm

#90 Grantmi

Offshore pays more

#109 TurnerNation on 05.02.15 at 2:03 pm

CPD.TO has caught on again.
Added final cash amount this year to my Turner Free Stock Account (TFSA).
It’s spring time when a young man’s heart turns to Gov.

Bikini season on my rental kando’s sunny rooftop patio and party room. BBQs are ablaze.
King St. W. party strip.

#110 Victoria Real Estate Update on 05.02.15 at 2:16 pm

Vancouver house prices fell at a rate of 14.2% per year (for 10 months) in 2008-09 until its falling market was rescued by emergency interest rates (see chart below).

Prices in Vancouver would have kept falling fast (crashing?) if it hadn’t been for the unprecedented, dramatic housing market intervention that was brought in at that time.

Those who insist that HAM will prevent any sort of price correction in Vancouver are simply wrong.
HAM was around in 2008-09, yet prices in Vancouver were on the fast track to a deep, multi-year correction.
HAM was also around in the 1980s as Vancouver’s housing market corrected to depths that most couldn’t imagine today (see 7th chart).

. . . . . Vancouver House Prices. . . . . .
. Percent Below July 2008 Price Level . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .0%. . .*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 1%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 2%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 3%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 4%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 6%. . . . . . . . . . . *. . . . . . . . . . . .
– 7%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 8%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 9%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-10%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-11%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-12%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * . . .
—————————————————————-
. . . . . .July. . . . December. . . . May. . .
. . . . . 2008. . . . . 2008 . . . . . 2009. . .
(source: Teranet’s index)

Vancouver’s housing market will go through a major, multi-year price correction. It will be much deeper and last longer than most think.

Just like in 2008-09 or in the early 1980s, HAM will not prevent Vancouver’s next major correction from starting.

Unlike in 2009, there will be no major rate drop to stop Vancouver’s next major price correction (Canada already has emergency rates).

There has been nothing magical about Vancouver’s price run-up. It matches similar price run-ups in other Canadian cities and is a direct result of lax lending standards (beginning in 2000) and emergency interest rates (2008-09).

As is the case with all housing bubbles, eventually the stimulus wears off and prices correct. Canada’s housing bubble is, perhaps, the biggest the world has ever seen. It’s price correction could be one for the record books.

#111 Victoria Real Estate Update on 05.02.15 at 2:20 pm

Link didn’t work in my last post. (see 7th chart)

#112 BS on 05.02.15 at 2:23 pm

If a FSBO wants to avoid paying commish (and take the risks involved) the saving should be passed to the buyer. Sadly most pocket the difference, offering no benefit to buyers. That’s greedy. This site teems with people decrying those they think help inflate prices. Look in the mirror. — Garth

From the FSBO I have seen they are almost always priced way above fair market value. The typical FSBO is a person who is not motivated to sell and are fishing for their price. They almost always end up listing it with an agent for 10% less than they were asking as a FSBO. Even then sometimes the property is still overpriced and requires a few more price reductions before getting sold. FSBO properties are almost always a waste of time for buyers to consider.

As much as I hate realtors they do offer some value in pricing the property correctly. In order for the realtor to make money they must satisfy both the seller and buyer with the selling price. If they try to list the property too low they will not get the listing in the first place and make no commission. If they try to list the property too high they will never get a buyer and will make no commission. A good realtor finds that balance and prices the property correctly.

It is the buyers agent that offers little value and should be eliminated. With the internet there is almost zero value in the buyers agent and in most cases the buyers agent just acts as a second agent trying to sell the property (actually representing the seller). They rarely look out for the buyers best interests since they only get paid if the buyer buys the property. That is a conflict and makes it difficult for a buyers agent to properly advise the buyer. I am surprised at how many buyers fail to realize this conflict and think their realtor is there to help them. The realtor is there to push the transaction and make the commission. Otherwise they don’t eat.

Having said all that the system is set up where you are better off with a buyers agent and not having one will not save you any money. You will not have access to critical information such as actual sale prices. In addition to that most listing agents won’t even return a phone call for buyers without an agent. So until the current system is blown up the status quo is best for both sellers and buyers.

#113 Mayhem Maddness in Vancouver on 05.02.15 at 3:11 pm

This is what a 2 plus million dollar home should look like:

http://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-style/pictures/kylie-jenner-27-million-mansion-home-celebrity-real-estate-2015294/45303

vs

http://www.rew.ca/properties/V1120229/732-west-53rd-avenue-vancouver?property_search=321081289

#114 Retired Boomer - WI on 05.02.15 at 3:18 pm

We never bought from a FSBO. We did look at several of them. We came away with the impression the owners were “cheap” and that the properties, like their autos, did not appear to be very well maintained.

After looking at numerous broker represented properties, as well as a few broker owned properties, we bought existing homes from home owners, who usually had a good reason for selling. Those good reasons included death of the spouse, divorce, and job transfer.

Those reasons generally meant they were a bit more flexible on the price, flexible on move in dates, in other words READY to make a DEAL!

All were good experiences. That by the way was 6 buys and 5 sells. 16 moves in total over a life thus far. Yeah, ask me ‘how it’s done.’

#115 bill on 05.02.15 at 3:20 pm

#86 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 05.02.15 at 10:20 am
-a nurse in vancouver general told me that was pure horseshit…..

#116 Ogopogo on 05.02.15 at 3:24 pm

#86 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 05.02.15 at 10:20 am
[Deleted: no need to revisit racist posts]

I have left this message for all to see. The anti-Chinese and racist sentiment now extent in YVR is a national stain. Daily I delete such posts here, made by people who are unworthy of our respect on so many levels. Neighbours of Asian heritage who have lived here for generations are now branded as ‘Chinese’. It is reminiscent of the internment of Canadian citizens of Japanese ancestry during WW2, for which we atone. What are we fighting for now? Houses. How sad is that? — Garth

I’m no sycophant, but I must say that my admiration for Garth grows by the day. It would be much easier for him to jump on the Sinophobic train, to pander to the embittered mob with pitchforks.

It takes strength of character and courage to stand against xenophobia. Among the few, our host has earned the title of “Honourable.”

#117 OffshoreObserver on 05.02.15 at 3:29 pm

I just don’t get this.

I just rented a 5 bedroom/3 bathroom house one block from the beach in Vietnam–with my 28 year old GF…I am 61.

Price: $USD 300/month

Monthly Condo fee: $0

Beer: $.30 from store–my GF brings it to me; Restaurant on beach price is $1.

Tips: No one tips in Vietnam.

Which caps at about $120,000 at 7%.

My cost of living is about $50K/year, but half of that is airfare and hotel to Vancouver to visit Vancouver and my over 90 year old Mom.

Also, there is no Commonlaw marriage law so I cannot get $$ by that.

(My last live in GF was a Miss Teen Thailand in 2000. But I kicked her out before 2 years of cohabitation, which would have given her “the rights of a married person”)

When I sold my hotel in 2000, I did not have to “split” my profit.”

…more later

#118 Arch Douche on 05.02.15 at 3:31 pm

Neighbours of Asian heritage who have lived here for generations are now branded as ‘Chinese’. It is reminiscent of the internment of Canadian citizens of Japanese ancestry during WW2, for which we atone. What are we fighting for now? Houses. How sad is that? — Garth

————————————————————-

Pretty sad. I don’t know what Chinese immigrants would need to do to be accepted as ‘true Canadians’ in YVR. When they first arrived, they bravely performed the dangerous work white people wouldn’t do in exchange for crap treatment, in order to build the CPR that enabled the West to be connected economically.

In short, there would be no B.C. as we know it, without the work of Chinese, Japanese, and Indian immigrants who were here at the very start. Many died to help create this place doing work that was beneath most Europeans. You can’t ‘sell off’ Vancouver to an ethnic group, unless you ignore the fact that they helped build it in the first place.

#119 Washed Up Lawyer on 05.02.15 at 3:34 pm

#106 Ralph Cramdown on 05.02.15 at 1:36 pm

Mop and Pail is at it again.
************************************

I was waiting for the G&M’s guidance before deciding how to place my vote on Tuesday here in Athabaska.

To return the favour, I read my first and only article on Elliott vs. Brown in the OPC leadership race and am returning the favour to the G&M editorial board.

I endorse Elliott.

#120 HD on 05.02.15 at 3:43 pm

@ #103 SWL1976 on 05.02.15 at 1:03 pm

Now for critical mass. That one is the difficult one, and most people depending on their level of conditioning are just not ready for the truth. Imagine realizing one day that everything you thought you believed as the truth was really a lie, and indeed a conspiracy? Tough pill to swallow. So that is why it is far easier to put your head back in the sand and go with the distractions.

I find the best way to wake people up, is slowly (but I will admit that sometimes I go too far too quick) and that turns people off.

Can you elaborate on what you mean by “Imagine realizing one day that everything you thought you believed as the truth was really a lie, and indeed a conspiracy?”?

What about in the instance of religion? Most likely a lie (in fact, I have no doubt) but is it a conspiracy? I suspect that most religious leaders believe their own stuff….how would characterize that as conspiracy then if this was what you meant?

Can you give us an example of a conspiracy you have uncovered?

You seem to be aware of the problem of various cognitive biases affecting the judgment of everyone….including ourselves.

How do you know when you are the truth beholder when you attempt to “wake people up”? How do you know when you are not the one being taken for a ride?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Na%C3%AFve_realism_(psychology)

Best,

HD

#121 TurnerNation on 05.02.15 at 3:49 pm

It’s funny, if your home or car is broken into an your family’s safety at risk the police “do not have resources” to pay a visit to you. 6-figures.
But if you are poor even misguided and exercise democracy against the elites the full force of legal violence comes down upon you. Our heros will laugh about it in their break room afterward.
Be warned: Stay at home and watch Netflix. The revolution will not be televised. I have seen the enemy and it is us.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/dozens-arrested-in-anti-capitalism-may-day-protest-in-montreal-1.3058316

#122 Denier on 05.02.15 at 3:56 pm

DELETED (Anti-Chinese)

#123 bdy sktrn on 05.02.15 at 4:07 pm

#110 Victoria Real Estate Update on 05.02.15 at 2:16 pm
Vancouver house prices fell at a rate of 14.2% per year (for 10 months) in 2008-09
————————-
hope you acted fast to not miss that tiny window.
my friends who sold their vcr properties at that time are locked out and looking to move east as they blew the one chance to get back into the market.

————————
Those who insist that HAM will prevent any sort of price correction in Vancouver are simply wrong.
HAM was around in 2008-09,
————————–
China’s gdp was half that of today. Ham was maybe 10% of what it is today

——————————
HAM was also around in the 1980s
——————————
now you are just being stupid. in 1980 china’s (mainland) gdp was 1/35 of that today. the country was beyond dirt poor. gdp/person was $310/person.
grasp at some other straws.

—————————-
“Vancouver’s housing market will go through a major, multi-year price correction. It will be much deeper and last longer than most think.”
——————————–
correction : “I really really wish Vancouver’s housing market will go through a major, multi-year price correction. It will be much deeper and last longer than most think.”

Have fun over in sleepyland!

#124 bdy sktrn on 05.02.15 at 4:18 pm

#113 Mayhem Maddness in Vancouver on 05.02.15 at 3:11 pm
This is what a 2 plus million dollar home should look like
———————————

youo best hurry down to SF to tell what fools they are being too.

3,75m for an average house on a lot less than half the size of the one in van.
http://www.californiamoves.com/property/details/4402905/MLS-432007/2336-Divisadero-St-San-Francisco-Pacific-Heights-CA-94115.aspx?utm_campaign=OLDP-Zillow&utm_source=zillow&utm_medium=oldp&utm_content=listing

I guess van prices only have to triple to catch up with SF

#125 SWL1976 on 05.02.15 at 4:34 pm

#120 HD

Can you elaborate on what you mean by “Imagine realizing one day that everything you thought you believed as the truth was really a lie, and indeed a conspiracy?”?

I am referring here to the big conspiracy of the global police state and depopulation agenda that is happening right before our eyes and to the lie that people think that they are free when really they are slaves to a system that has been carefully constructed over generations.

We are infact constructing our own prison

What about in the instance of religion?

I don’t get into religion

Can you give us an example of a conspiracy you have uncovered?

I have not uncovered any conspiracies personally by myself, but through observation and research I have witnessed for about 10 years now the spaying of our atmosphere with aresols, which I could go into great detail about.

Another major one is the officail story about the crime of the century. If you still think it was 6 guys with box cutters you are way way off. Sorry there are facts on that

How do you know when you are the truth beholder when you attempt to “wake people up”? How do you know when you are not the one being taken for a ride?

I am not claiming I am the truth beholder. I am simply trying to figure out this mystery as we go and am open to many ideas and theories.

Simple observation of the world around me speaks volumes about who is being taken for a ride

#126 Washed Up Lawyer on 05.02.15 at 4:43 pm

Without the internet, I would never have known that I should vote for Jim Prentice. The Globe and Mail cannot be purchased in Fort McMurray and even if it could be, the sage advice of the editorial board would have arrived here too late. By rail, then barge, then canoe and finally dogsled, six weeks after the election.

On a positive note, the absence of the newspaper has allowed us residents of the Taiga to avoid an epidemic of tavern fisticuffs following debate about the meaning of:

“The subject who is truly loyal to the Chief Magistrate will neither advise nor submit to arbitrary measures.”

#127 Mayhem Maddness in Vancouver on 05.02.15 at 5:04 pm

#123

At lease San Fran has Silicon Valley. Vancouver just silicon(e) on faces and breasts. Where is our economy? Where are the high paying jobs not related to drugs or real estate?

Facebook and other companies just use Vancouver or Canada as a portal for their foreign programmers to gain easier access to the USA.

#128 old gringo on 05.02.15 at 5:05 pm

Perhaps the way to deal with the HAM issue is to do the same as USA does ” as a US citizen you are taxed on your world wide income.
Just a thought.

When a person takes up residence here and works or invests in income-producing assets here, they pay taxes here. — Garth

#129 S.Bby on 05.02.15 at 5:12 pm

#105 Tantalus:
I have a Vancouver newspaper article from 2005 clipped. The headline is “Like all bubbles, the housing market will burst”.

There was no Canadian real estate bubble in 2005. Are you sure the article wasn’t talking about the USA? Or maybe you just made this whole thing up?

#130 Rainclouds on 05.02.15 at 5:29 pm

#117 Offshore Observer

You sound like quite a man, 61 and bragging about exploitation in a 3rd world country

Save the future update………….please

#131 Gordon Gecko on 05.02.15 at 5:30 pm

“FSBO means greed”

———

Greed is good, Garth.

#132 Shawn Allen on 05.02.15 at 5:43 pm

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger on why they never try to “talk” up a stock they own

As for his own investment strategy, Buffett, said he and Munger don’t seek to “talk their book” — or pump up companies they’ve invested in, such as Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo, IBM, American Express.

“If we talked our book, we would say pessimistic things,” Buffett said.

“Why would we want the stock to go up if we’re going to be buying” in a year or next year, he said. “People don’t seem to get that point.”

Added Munger: “If people weren’t so often wrong, we wouldn’t be so rich.”

******************************************
That last bit from Munger is one to remember.

Always assume that Buffett is correct. He has a “slightly” better track record than any of us.

#133 flying orange plasma ball on 05.02.15 at 5:58 pm

Smoking Man, ‘Editor’ here…

I was surprised to read about your flying orange plasma ball, I immediately remembered one of my strangest dreams, ever.

Here is my note from 9/23/14.

“I had a strange, extremely vivid dream.

I was somewhere with a group of people in summer, outside, somewhere that might look like Arizona, out of town completely, with huge, totally clear sky, filled with stars and whatever is up there.

Then fireballs started to fall, literally everywhere from high altitude. It looked like hundreds of small fireworks, with the same orange color, it was a wonderful visual spectacle, we all went wowww. But the “sparks” did not fade away as they were coming down to the ground, they lit things on fire. If people were hit, they were lit on fire, as well.

People started to run around trying to put out the fire on other people, by covering them with blankets or whatever came handy. I was doing the same, the person was fully covered with a blanket. When finally I put out the fire on him and started to uncover from the blanket, I got hit with a single, huge burst of energy, which was not like electricity, but something that shook my entire body at the same time, so drastically, that I woke up.. at the same time you just knew somehow that this was aliens landing, the guy in the blanket was transformed already into an alien and when I was putting out the fire that alien energy hit transformed me into an alien, as well, while still having my own consciousness.

The dream looked long, very cinematic, until the energy shock, when it stopped very suddenly, on my wake to get fully awake this alien stuff of “knowing it all at once” was crossing my mind in a split second, between getting hit by the energy and almost jumping out of the bed and screaming…”

I told about the dream someone who was laughing at me and said “it was not a dream, you had a time travel”.

Go figure.

#134 Mayhem Maddness in Vancouver on 05.02.15 at 5:59 pm

#129
The bubble for Canada was delayed b/c we had a secret bailout. Google it!!!

#135 Victoria Real Estate Update on 05.02.15 at 6:02 pm

#123 bdy sktrn

Those who bought in Vancouver as prices were falling had no reason to think that emergency rates would come along to stop the price decline. Prices would have continued down in Vancouver if the intervention didn’t happen. Those that bought before emergency rates came in as prices were falling got lucky, that’s all there is to that.

My point about HAM was that it didn’t prevent a major price correction from beginning in 2008 and it won’t stop Vancouver’s next major correction from starting. There were rich Chinese in the early 80s also. You provided no data to disprove that. Even if you could disprove that it wouldn’t take away from my overall point because HAM didn’t prevent Vancouver’s most recent price correction.

Lax lending standards and emergency rates are responsible for Vancouver’s price run up.

Vancouver’s price run up has been mirrored by similar price run ups in all other Canadian cities. It seems that nobody argues that HAM has pushed prices up in Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Regina, Hamilton, Quebec City, Ottawa, Montreal, Edmonton, Calgary, etc. yet all of those cities experienced comparable price run ups. This is proof that lax lending standards and emergency rates have pushed prices higher in Canada and not HAM. If HAM was responsible for Vancouver’s price run up and not lax lending standards then Vancouver’s price run up would have dramatically outdone all other non HAM Canadian cities. We all know that didn’t happen.

There simply is no valid argument out there that HAM is responsible for Vancouver’s price run up or that HAM will prevent a major price correction in Vancouver. It hasn’t and it won’t.

Your argument is ridiculously stupid and there is no logic backing it whatsoever.

#136 Nosty, etc. on 05.02.15 at 6:06 pm

#105 Tantalus on 05.02.15 at 1:35 pm — “Like lightning it struck. No one was prepared.” — Ralph Foster commenting on Weimar Republic hyperinflation of the 1920s.

True, but there has to be a reason for it, and it has to start somehow and somewhere, like here and here.

#137 Gloom and Doom on 05.02.15 at 6:33 pm

The boys over at King World are telling all who will listen to get out of stocks as they are about to crash. Jim Sinclair is telling all who will listen to buy gold as it is manipulated and paper money is about to burn. Then you have Jim Willie who is telling all who will listen that the Government is going to take over and it will end with marshal law. Then you have Bill Fleckinstein who is telling all that will listen that bonds are in a bubble and the crash will cause an economic collapse. Then you have Garth Turner warning all of a collapse in real estate market. I guess we should all burn our worthless currency or swap it for gold, dump our bonds , buy a gun and move into grass huts in the forest. Time will be the teller of all truths.. Oh and don’t forget you renters that once the collapse hits us you will be evicted when the bank forecloses on the poor mortgage holder.

To be accurate, I have not forecast a real estate collapse. But it will end up being a poor place to have your net worth. The other guys are flakes. — Garth

#138 Smoking Man on 05.02.15 at 7:31 pm

#133 flying orange plasma ball on 05.02.15 at 5:58 pm
Smoking Man, ‘Editor’ here…

I was surprised to read about your flying orange plasma ball, I immediately remembered one of my strangest dreams, ever.

Here is my note from 9/23/14.

“I had a strange, extremely vivid dream.

I was somewhere with a group of people in summer, outside, somewhere that might look like Arizona, out of town completely, with huge, totally clear sky, filled with stars and whatever is up there.

Then fireballs started to fall, literally everywhere from high altitude. It looked like hundreds of small fireworks, with the same orange color, it was a wonderful visual spectacle, we all went wowww. But the “sparks” did not fade away as they were coming down to the ground, they lit things on fire. If people were hit, they were lit on fire, as well.

People started to run around trying to put out the fire on other people, by covering them with blankets or whatever came handy. I was doing the same, the person was fully covered with a blanket. When finally I put out the fire on him and started to uncover from the blanket, I got hit with a single, huge burst of energy, which was not like electricity, but something that shook my entire body at the same time, so drastically, that I woke up.. at the same time you just knew somehow that this was aliens landing, the guy in the blanket was transformed already into an alien and when I was putting out the fire that alien energy hit transformed me into an alien, as well, while still having my own consciousness.

The dream looked long, very cinematic, until the energy shock, when it stopped very suddenly, on my wake to get fully awake this alien stuff of “knowing it all at once” was crossing my mind in a split second, between getting hit by the energy and almost jumping out of the bed and screaming…”

I told about the dream someone who was laughing at me and said “it was not a dream, you had a time travel”.

Go figure.
……..

It doesn’t surprise me in the least, something has been going on for the last few years. Ever since the plasma ball incident.

98 % of my bets hit, and hit big. My writing has improved beyond my imagination, in fact I wasn’t even a writer before. My code smithing, doesn’t break ever anymore. At the Tax farm traders are screaming, system down, I just get close to the machine, boom, it auto fixes. No intervention by my consciousness.

I hear the voices of my enemy plotting, I know their moves before they do. I hear the voices of those that love me.

This is really weird shit. My atoms must singing a good song, that other atoms are giving standing ovations, cause everything is working great.

I don’t want to change my car, my shirt, my house, my socks..

It’s unreal…

#139 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.02.15 at 7:39 pm

@#117 OffshoreObscenity

You are the epitomy of a greedy, self absorbed, letcherous, manipulative creepy old sex tourist.
Giving your ‘Miss Thailand” girlfriend the boot after 2 years to save yourself co habitation rights.

Classy 61 year old troll.

Save us the updates I cant afford the disinfection fees.

One more word for you.

Karma

#140 Daisy Mae on 05.02.15 at 7:42 pm

#22 Willy: “FSBO may be greedy but I eagerly await the day when realtors go the way of travel agents.”

************

Well said!

#141 S.Bby on 05.02.15 at 7:43 pm

#123 BS
You seriously compare YVR to SFO? Really? You can’t see any rather large differences between these two cities? OK then… carry on.

#142 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.02.15 at 7:47 pm

@#101 April.
“Aussie jurock pumping RE again in Vancouver………..Michael Campbell Sat morn CKNW. Isn’t CMHC full of ex realtors.”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

i stopped listening to Michael Campbells show on CKNW about 5 years ago.
His “folksy” banter with Ozzie Jurock about “its ALWAYS a good time to buy” made me want to vomit.

‘NW is a mere shadow of its former self as it’s ratings ( the lowest ranking in the history of the station) continue to plummet to new depths.
Save your energy and buy an Economist or listen to BNN. At least the ‘RE pumpers” are challenged and questioned.

#143 S.Bby on 05.02.15 at 7:48 pm

#135 VREU
Bdy Sktrn (AKA: Broadway Skytrain) is always pumping RE on this blog. His/her posts are always ridiculous over-the-top hype for Vancouver real estate.

#144 Deal with it on 05.02.15 at 7:55 pm

#132 Shawn Allen on 05.02.15 at 5:43 pm

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger on why they never try to “talk” up a stock they own

As for his own investment strategy, Buffett, said he and Munger don’t seek to “talk their book” — or pump up companies they’ve invested in, such as Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo, IBM, American Express.

———————–

That’s all he does at the annual meeting – pumps all the businesses he owns.

#145 Daisy Mae on 05.02.15 at 7:59 pm

#100: “Of course the answer is clearly a big YES. When I sold my place in 2010 I’m pretty sure my realtor knew who was going to buy it and what that party was willing to pay. I got my asking price, even after commission…”

****************

Happy for you! In this particular case, the realtor is not well thought of — believed he’d capture the market in this gated community. He was wrong.

#146 Daisy Mae on 05.02.15 at 8:05 pm

Not a popularity contest? Before anyone points this out to me, I GET THAT. Duh.

Reputation counts for something…

#147 krampit on 05.02.15 at 8:06 pm

#117 other than money, you able to satisfy your GF?

My last trip to Southeast asia so many grey haired guys with young local ladies.

#148 interested on 05.02.15 at 8:29 pm

#130 Rainclouds

I am not OffshoreObserver but I am curious what is he exploiting in a third world country exactly? Cheap beer? Rental prices?

Oh, you mean his girlfriend? I’ve seen a fair share of young girls with older men (and vice versa) right here in Canada as well.

#149 Joe Schmoe on 05.02.15 at 8:34 pm

FSBO is fine. Just be prepared to be put up with the hassle. i.e. constant harassment from RE Agents busting your hump. It sure doesn’t help one’s opinion of them.

80% of buyers will bring an agent in anyway, so you just end up paying half the commission.

I was ok working with RE Agents, just didn’t see the value in needing two.

When buying, I just looked online, called the name on the sign for showings and then knew I had half the commission to play with as a starting point.

It’s not like RE Agents warrant their work or anything. There is no further contact with them after the keys are handed over.

Having a good RE lawyer is more important.

#150 Marco on 05.02.15 at 8:49 pm

@Victoria Real Estate Update

I agree. HAM in Van just happens to be buying at the peak. If prices had been let to correct in 2008 no way HAM or other foreign investors would have appreciated prices to this level.

The run up from 2008 is due to low interest rates, CHMC and Government intervention to prop up the housing industry as it started to correct in 2008. HAM is taking advantage of loosening rules to invest in foreign real estate. Just happens to be at a time when us Canadians have created a housing bubble.
When it deflates foreign investors will lose some change too.

Cheers.

#151 waiting on the westcoast on 05.02.15 at 9:33 pm

135 Victoria RE Update…

+1

Not sure why people want to find a bogeyman….

Also – I am tired of people complaining that the market is wrong or that we need to change policy… The market tells you what to do. The market tells me that now is the time to rent… One day it will tell me now is the time to buy… But today is not that day (had to use the LOTR reference – my kids would be so proud).

Buffet buys companies that he believes are a good value. In my mind, Buffet will not be buying CDN (and especially GTA/YVR) real estate until valuations make sense.

#152 Bucky on 05.02.15 at 9:38 pm

I have sold a couple of FSBOs, bought a FSBO, and also bought/sold through realtors. We sold two Condos by FSBO, which are commodities and easy to value based on recent sales of a near-identical unit. I really don’t see much if any value a realtor brings to that kind of transaction. We had a good lawyer to write up the deal and help with some of the details.

A house is more difficult, we were happy to use a realtor for ours, but mostly for the time factor. Still ultimately had to sort through the flaky offers and dubious buyers ourselves, but he did work his tail off to get people in the door, money well spent in the end.

And as for the FSBO prices, we did the same thing as the right hounourable FSBO, priced between the market price and the net price if we had paid a commission. Got lucky and didn’t have a buyer’s realtor to split with on either sale, we and the buyers both saved money on those deals.

#153 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.02.15 at 9:40 pm

#135 Victoria Real Estate guy.
Obviously, you’ve got no clue.
So please stick to posting your monthly report, that no one on bothers to read.

#154 espressobob on 05.02.15 at 9:42 pm

#132 Shawn Allen

The Warren Buffett ideology thing again like so many others on’ bented ‘knee worshiping his master. Seriously?

#155 flying orange plasma ball on 05.02.15 at 9:54 pm

# 138 Smoking Man

Very interesting… I don’t have the same effect, but I will look up your original story…

The orange plasma ball is the perfect description, caught my eyes immediately.

#156 Herb Weber on 05.02.15 at 9:54 pm

#126 Washed up Lawyer,

leave Junius alone, Unlearned Friend! That masthead is a reminder of the time when “Mop & Pail” was an honorific for Canada’s National Newspaper, before it became a birdcage liner.

Wouldn’t it be great if that saying were understood and practiced? Sadly it went into the same rabbit hole as “speaking truth to power.”

#157 Dirt dog on 05.02.15 at 10:07 pm

A monkey could have sold Real Estate for the last 15 years, it’s been that easy. Wait until the market turns and the party’s over. The sledding gets rough and brutal. If you want to sell your house and the market is saturated, dead, or comatose you’ll gladly pay that commission to get rid of the albatross!!!

#158 Smoking Man on 05.02.15 at 10:16 pm

For you millennials.

https://youtu.be/7jpt0BByx0k

The only reason this stuff is keeped from the herd.

It will break down, the control the man has over the flock, 85% precent of humanity believes in a bearded old man in the sky, that’s going to take care of you after your body starts decomposing.

Control = Fear

If your fearless, you can’t be controlled.

Back to the tax farm dogs, wag your tail and lick your masters boots.

A Nectonites work is never done.

Oh The dude in the video, highest level of spy security.

Shit, my mind didn’t type this, they are controlling my thumb.

Fking Aliens.

#159 Ronaldo on 05.02.15 at 10:20 pm

#117 Offshore Observer

Weird!

#160 Ronaldo on 05.02.15 at 10:39 pm

#118 Arch Douche on 05.02.15 at 3:31 pm

Indeed, the Chinese have played a large role in the building of Canada besides working on the railroads. Restaurants, Laundries, grocery stores, farming, fruit growing, tailors, bakeries, cannery workers, fishermen, etc etc. Have worked with many in my long working career and can not say enough about their work ethic. We used to say that if the Chinese can’t make it in a business, nobody can.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Chinese_immigration_to_Canada

#161 jess on 05.02.15 at 10:48 pm

SEC Charges Corporate Insider Wyly Brothers With Fraud
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
2010-137

SEC Division of Enforcement

http://www.dallasnews.com/business/headlines/20150416-irs-hits-sam-wyly-brothers-estate-with-3b-tax-bill.ece

Updated – IRS Hits Wylys with ‘Unprecedented’ $3 Billion Tax Bill

The IRS levied a record-setting $3.2 billion tax bill Wednesday against Dallas entrepreneur and philanthropist Sam Wyly and the estate of his brother, Charles Wyly. The IRS claims

#162 RainBird on 05.02.15 at 11:43 pm

A well-run economy operating without cash would require a trustworthy government. That is, the people who know where we are and what we’re buying and selling 24/7 would have to be decent, competent and honest. Otherwise we’re giving near-absolute power to folks who might use it for their own enrichment at our expense. Which is of course to state the blindingly obvious. The fact that power both corrupts and attracts the already corrupt means that the more power we hand the government, the further we push it towards absolute evil. A cashless society would pretty much guarantee a dictatorship in a single generation.
If a cashless society is a means to the end of total government control of interest rates, i.e., the price of money, then the resulting deeply-negative rates would distort the pricing signals that make capitalism work. The system would devolve into a centrally-planned malinvestment-fest resembling bigger, more chaotic versions of the past century’s collectivist experiments, all of which crashed and burned in short order.

#163 Mark on 05.02.15 at 11:56 pm

Wow, no Leo Trollstoy posts yet?

On that note, I injured my hand today doing some auto repair, so pretty hard for me to type. But am pretty impressed with what I see in the comments thus far.

#164 observer on 05.03.15 at 1:06 am

“I’m no sycophant, but I must say that my admiration for Garth grows by the day. It would be much easier for him to jump on the Sinophobic train, to pander to the embittered mob with pitchforks.

It takes strength of character and courage to stand against xenophobia. Among the few, our host has earned the title of “Honourable.””

With respect, Garth seems to be a “social liberal” – i.e he interprets the criticisms of the effectiveness of anti- money laundering (an identified problem) efforts of the CRA in the Lower Mainland, which is in turn pricing non-passport carriers of convenience, who actually live here, to be “racist” – i.e. all chinese people are being attacked.

Obviously Garth must know lots of Chinese people, as I do, and ones that pay into the system here in Canada (PAY TAX) share these same concerns. Funny though, they aren’t being “racist” when they are making these criticisms. Again, it’s simply slow-witted “social liberalism”

The reality is this “liberal” thinking really isn’t particularly logical, nor sustainable. Garth is most entertaining when he sticks to the portfolios, which IMHO, is highly entertaining.

#165 observer on 05.03.15 at 1:15 am

Either way, I don’t see much changing in the near future. More jaw-boning interest rate hikes at least until next Christmas.

It seems the “official” reports are papering over the gaping recession signs just long enough to stall out further rate hikes, kicking the can down the road until after the next US election (Nov 2016). I don’t seek rate hikes for a while, and am keeping my Variable rate mortgage.

Personally, I stopped making mortgage repayment accelerations and am now shifting all my cash-flow into TFSAs, like Garth said – much needed diversification against real estate, and the inevitable correction in 2016/2017.

#166 Brydle604 on 05.03.15 at 1:32 am

Investors scoop old Burnaby apartment blocks in land development rush

$850 rental apartments selling for $350,000 per door

http://www.biv.com/article/2015/4/investors-scoop-old-burnaby-apartment-blocks-land-/

#167 Retreat on 05.03.15 at 2:19 am

#107
We are using a good agent in Kelowna as we believe it’s shaping up to be the right time to vultch. We have a lowball offer in on a nice property near the lake, where we know the owner is wanting a cash deal and quick completion (they are leaving the country).

****

You may want to consider why they’re leaving the country and selling at the peak…

But if it is the right property and you got the cash, why care about the potential loss of equity.

IMO Kelowna and West Bank, Vernon, Penticton etc will be harder hit when Albertans start liquidating their assets to cover loss of income from operations back in AB.

#168 Yuan peg removed? on 05.03.15 at 2:34 am

Of course… When u have corrupt cash fleeing the country in millions.. What do u care. You’ve got to park it fast. $2M…. That’s nothing…

*****************

Wealthy Chinese are definitely insiders. They may know of or expect a Chinese QE or possibly a removal of the Yuan peg.

Either way, the value of the currency is probably seeing some sort of devaluation going forward.

Once that has happened, the RE appreciation in 604 and 416 will suddenly come to a full stop.

GDP growth in China is barely above 3% this year which puts China technically in a recession.

Some form of stimulus is needed. Developer Kaisa already needed a bailout. When or how much of a stimulus is anyone’s guess here.

#169 davikk on 05.03.15 at 7:30 am

Canada has the Most Overvalued Housing Market in World

http://investmentwatchblog.com/canada-has-the-most-overvalued-housing-market-in-world/

#170 Bottoms_Up on 05.03.15 at 7:30 am

A good real estate agent would price that house at 399k (in this market) and get it sold. At 450k, it’s just going to flounder like every other house priced at that level in Orleans.

#171 Spacc on 05.03.15 at 8:36 am

Good on OffshoreObserver, we may live in economically-advantaged regions but the vast majority of guys in Toronto live like monks until the “lucky” few are able to land a gently-used princess (and I assume similar culture in other Canadian/American cities). This is why you need the spigot constantly on to import ready-made couples and families (including my parents).

Toronto men really don’t know how–not just short-changed, but–brutally short-changed they are when it comes to the relationship arena. The West is a 3rd-world relationship landscape, with men the ones desperate and starving for any female contact and an honest relationship and women the indifferent and choosy tourists.

#172 Sinful Man on 05.03.15 at 9:15 am

Vellacott’s FSBO offer appears cloddish and cheapens the office he holds. But give the man credit for being counter-culturist enough to defend the rights of unborn children.
Canada is one of only seven nations worldwide that permits elective abortion after 20 weeks, according to a report recently released by the Charlotte Lozier Institute, the education and research arm of the Susan B. Anthony List.

The report which examined gestational limits and abortion laws in 198 countries, independent sates, and semi-autonomous regions with populations of more than 1 million—found both the United States and Canada rank alongside known human rights abusers North Korea, Vietnam, and China in permissive abortion laws.

There is no need to be patronizing about Vellacott’s faith, the right to which we should defend as vigorously as we defend against discrimination against the visible minorities such as the Canadian-born Chinese in Vancouver.

#173 Ralph Cramdown on 05.03.15 at 9:37 am

#154 espressobob — “The Warren Buffett ideology thing again like so many others on’ bented ‘knee worshiping his master. Seriously?”

And why not? He’s an overachiever… a true renaissance man. There he was last night advising Pacman on some tactics of the sweet science. I thought the prominent ‘Geico’ headband was a bit much, but Warren’s gotta be Warren.

#174 ANON on 05.03.15 at 10:02 am

[email protected] picture.

They say if you’re not angry, you’re not paying attention. I say if you’re angry, you don’t understand math. If you do understand math, you should leave anger behind and prepare. It would be wise to start yesterday.

#175 Daisy Mae on 05.03.15 at 10:18 am

#116 Ogopogo: “It takes strength of character and courage…”

********************

And Garth never wavers. Very admirable!

Liars, cheats, sneaks are deplorable. And there appears to be so many of ’em! :-(

#176 Daisy Mae on 05.03.15 at 10:24 am

#117 OffShoreObserver: “…more later.”

***********************

Please spare us.

#177 Daisy Mae on 05.03.15 at 10:35 am

#118 Arch: “I don’t know what Chinese immigrants would need to do to be accepted as ‘true Canadians’ in YVR.”

*****************

We would appreciate true and honest integration. Until that happens, Canadians remain
segregated. “We appreciate Canada and all it has to offer — we just don’t want to be neighbours with you.”

Now I shall await the backlash…..

#178 Daisy Mae on 05.03.15 at 10:45 am

#120: “I suspect that most religious leaders believe their own stuff….”

********************

As a matter of fact, they don’t. Google ‘The CLERGY Project’.

#179 Daisy Mae on 05.03.15 at 10:56 am

#147 Krampit: “My last trip to Southeast asia so many grey haired guys with young local ladies.”

*****************

These old farts are offering what the young women want. And it isn’t them. LOL

#180 Nagraj on 05.03.15 at 11:04 am

“According to HSBC’s latest global retirement report, 89% of Canadian pre-retirees surveyed say they do not provide financial support to grown-up children.” (BNN 3/5)
The Bank of Mom&Dad might not be as influential as some people think.

Also from BNN (referencing StatsCan): “Today we owe more than 160 cents for every dollar we bring in. If mortgage rates rise – and they will – households will feel the burden immediately.”
No kiddin’. That burden will also be immediately felt by a whole lot of other outrageously presumptuous, optimistic twerps who think the bills they sent out to these households is gonna git paid, not to mention retail and restaurants and recreation.

#181 flying orange plasma ball on 05.03.15 at 11:34 am

#138 Smoking Man on 05.02.15 at 7:31 pm
#133 flying orange plasma ball on 05.02.15 at 5:58 pm
Smoking Man, ‘Editor’ here…

…Ever since my encounter with the flying orange plasma ball that hovered over long branch three years ago. Its in the May 2012 archives.

———-

Smoking Man, I could not find it.

What I did find was, that Garth used sexy babes much more liberally way back then.

Maybe to divert attention from the flying orange plasma ball?

#182 bdy sktrn on 05.03.15 at 12:19 pm

#143 S.Bby on 05.02.15 at 7:48 pm
#135 VREU
Bdy Sktrn (AKA: Broadway Skytrain) is always pumping RE on this blog. His/her posts are always ridiculous over-the-top hype for Vancouver real estate.
———————————–

Rather than 604 RE in general, I have been consistent in pointing out the future if urban604 sfh(LAND). i never liked anything attached for long term holding.

and for my failings in that effort i apologize. deeply.

never in my most extreme predictions did I ever see a westside house go for 2m over ask, or eastvan sfh over 2m before 2020. I have failed. I will try harder next time.;)

#183 Shawn Allen on 05.03.15 at 1:37 pm

Learn from the best (Warren Buffett) or Don’t. It’s Your Choice

Comments from above:

Deal with it on 05.02.15 at 7:55 pm
#132 Shawn Allen on 05.02.15 at 5:43 pm

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger on why they never try to “talk” up a stock they own

As for his own investment strategy, Buffett, said he and Munger don’t seek to “talk their book” — or pump up companies they’ve invested in, such as Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo, IBM, American Express.

———————–

That’s all he does at the annual meeting – pumps all the businesses he owns.

espressobob on 05.02.15 at 9:42 pm
#132 Shawn Allen

The Warren Buffett ideology thing again like so many others on’ bented ‘knee worshiping his master. Seriously?

*******************************************
Any open-minded study of Warren Buffett will quickly reveal that he is one of (if the not THE) greatest investor(s) in history. Also that he operates with the highest integrity. Also that he is a great economic thinker and a humanitarian. And one of the best managers of people.

It’s the choice of each of us to see what we can learn from him or to jealously suggest he did not earn his wealth in a completely ethical manner or to otherwise pooh pooh him and disrespect him.

I should be glad that many people disrespect him. If too many followed his advice then there would be fewer people on the wrong path and fewer people to (ethically) win wealth from.

Of course he praises his businesses at the meeting and his managers. But my original post mentioned that he does not try to talk up the price of IBM for example. He said when he first bought IBM that it would be better if the price went LOWER so he could buy more and because IBM was buying back shares. He said the same again repeatedly. Does this sound wrong? Well, Warren Buffett did not become so incredibly wealthy by thinking like the mainstream.

Learn from the great man or don’t. It’s your choice.

#184 Shawn Allen on 05.03.15 at 1:41 pm

Scoop?

Brydle604 on 05.03.15 at 1:32 am
Investors scoop old Burnaby apartment blocks in land development rush

$850 rental apartments selling for $350,000 per door

http://www.biv.com/article/2015/4/investors-scoop-old-burnaby-apartment-blocks-land-/

****************************************
What kind of scoop would be appropriate for old apartments in Burnaby at $350k per door?

#185 Garth ll (lol) on 05.03.15 at 11:04 pm

Garth l – what are your thoughts on this report?:

http://www.wdunning.com/docs/Bubble-report-2014-03-12.pdf

#186 Tantalus on 05.04.15 at 12:05 am

#129 S.Bby on 05.02.15 at 5:12 pm

“There was no Canadian real estate bubble in 2005. Are you sure the article wasn’t talking about the USA? Or maybe you just made this whole thing up?”

Oh yes there was. Relative to the lows of 2001, the market was manic. But it doesn’t look like a bubble compared to today’s ultra-bubble. The article is real and in pdf form. If I knew how to post it I would.

#187 Investorz on 05.04.15 at 11:10 am

“Alberta was literally a housing bubble going into 2008,” he says. “House prices went up 15-20 per cent a year, two to three years in a row. It was unheard of.”

Genworth CEO reconsiders Alberta business amid housing bubble fears:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/genworth-ceo-reconsiders-alberta-business-amid-housing-bubble-fears/article24232971/

#188 Investorz on 05.04.15 at 11:22 am

Did you know that mortgage insurers will help borrowers? It makes sense. Why let borrowers fail when you can have them pay over a longer period of time.

“[Genworth] It runs a homeowner assistance program that allows lenders to extend amortization periods up to 40 years. It has also paid off borrowers’ missed payments if it thinks it can avoid foreclosure. ”

Borrowers are so lucky: the government helps them, the private industry helps them.