Stocks and houses have a lot in common. When someone tells you the TSX has gained 6.06% in the last 100 days (which it has), or 9.6% in the last twelve months, that doesn’t mean every stock has swelled that much. After all, the banks are down and oils have been plastered. But other segments of the markets have done fine. As a result, 2015 is sweet so far for investors who picked the right equities, or just got smart and bought an ETF which tracks the index.
Now when it comes to houses, people get stupid. This week the national realtors’ cartel announced real estate across Canada gained 9.4% in price from this time in 2014. So what do homeowners think? Of course – their own property has jumped in value. By 9.4%. In fact, agents use these average price stats to ‘prove’ this asset is on fire. (This is why real estate boards in Canada do not use median numbers – which would tell a far different story.)
The reality is, we’re in an extraordinary time when housing should be shedding value because of a soggy economy, stagnant wages, record debt, government austerity and home ownership saturation. And it is. With the exception of two markets – and even within those, price gains are nor universal. Many owners are about to learn a grim lesson: sometimes realtors lie.
Uri Kogan apparently isn’t one of them. The Toronto agent sent me an interesting little story yesterday, just as CREA was pumping reporters full of sunshine. “I sold a condo unit for my client three years ago for $270,000,” he says. The buyer felt he got a deal, since the place had been listed for $279,000.
And it seemed like it. Over 550 square feet, balcony with a great view, 24-hour concierge downstairs, luxury amenities, just off Yonge Street, park nearby and walk to a main Toronto subway station. The buyer, as is so typical these days, was an ‘investor’ who then proceeded to invest $20,000 in fluffing and upgrading the unit.
Well, it’s for sale again. “Now the asking price is $280,500,” says Uri, “and it hasn’t sold yet. So, you want to buy a nice condo on the subway for the same price it was at three years ago AND with $20K in renovations? ALSO, listing agent is offering 3% commission, so I would be happy to give you back 0.5%.”
BTW, here’s the description:
“Luxury Condo By Menkes At Yonge/Sheppard.Priced To Sell Quick, Immaculate One Bedroom Unit, Combined Living & Dining Room W/Hrdwd Floors Newly Installed Thru-Out. W/O To Balcony. Kitchen Recently Upgraded W/Granite Counters &Breakfast Bar. 4 Pc Washroom Recently Upgraded. Master Bdrm W/Hrdwd Flrs & Ne View. Recently Reno’ed Lobby, Hallways, And Amenities. 24 Hours Concierge, Steps To Subway, 24 Hr Grocery, Restaurants, Starbucks, & Much More. **** EXTRAS **** Stainless Steel Fridge, Flat-Top Stove, B/I Dishwasher, B/I Microwave Hood Fan & Granite Counters. Washer & Dryer, Elf’s, Vertical Blinds, Granite Counter-Top In Bathroom. Over $20,000Spent In Upgrades!!”
The moral of the story: some stocks are winners. Some are dogs. Same with real estate. But while you can live in a condo you paid too much for, a stock doesn’t have a monthly maintenance fee of $391, plus insurance and property tax. Nor do you need to install granite or a potty with a heated seat. Conclusion: condos are bad investments. And never think real estate always goes up.
After he let a breathless nation know on Wednesday that interest rates would not be budging, central bank boss Stevie Poloz moved on to the housing market, trying to make exactly this point. If you live in Vancouver or Toronto, he suggested, and think your house is riskless, think again.
“The adverse impact of the oil price shock in Alberta and continued robust price growth in Toronto and Vancouver suggest a risk of a correction in these markets,” the Bank of Canada warned. “While historical experience suggests that localized Canadian house price cycles, both in terms of the factors behind the boom as well as the correction, have typically not spilled over to other regions, it would be a major event if it occurred.”
By every measure, despite the hype and realtor arousal in YVR and the GTA, real estate is not healthy. Sales are stagnant or falling in most cities. Outside of the bubble towns, price increases are basically pacing inflation. Prices are falling in resource-affected cities like Regina and St. John’s, while markets like Ottawa and Montreal are going nowhere. Calgary has been a mess since late last year, while Fort Mac is a smoky hole.
Price increases overall have just shown the smallest gain in 15 months. And the gap between single-family homes and condos is exploding – because as detached houses become more and more expensive, the universe of potential buyers shrinks, despite record-low mortgages.
This has all spilled over into the rental market as well. In Toronto a new condo glut is rapidly emerging – something this pathetic blog warned two years ago was in the pipeline. The lease-to-listings ratio is now at the worst level in five years, and rents have started to go down. Since last June over 22,000 new condos have hit the market, many of them bought by poor suckers who thought (a) I can rent it out for at least enough to cover the costs and (b) I’ll be rich when I sell, cuz real estate always goes up.
Remember those ads for new condo buildings that developers (like Brad Lamb) told you would shower an 18%-per-year return on lucky buyers of one-bedders? Well, so much for that.
Soon landlords will envy tenants. The world as you knew it is over.
126 comments ↓
Just watched the maintenance staff in my apartment building repair a neighbors sink. janitor standing by to vacuum up the mess. All included in the monthly rent.
I’m with that obnoxious Leroy dude… Canadians are fools.
Wildrose-NDP coalition. You heard it here first.
As a renter, I can’t wait for reams of new condo stock to come online. I wouldn’t mind paying $200 less per month for a nice unit.
Here is another tale of two market: Canada/US
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/homeless-man-finds-forgotten-bank-account-with-enough-money-for-a-house-085648857.html
Homes are so cheap in the US that homeless people can afford to buy them.
(not really)
So why then would wealthy Yanks snatch up million dollar junkers in Canada, even if they are discounted 20% (they’re not)?
Maybe here we’ll start selling houses to homeless people too just to keep up!
China’s massive housing bubble now imploding; economic collapse likely to spread globally
http://www.naturalnews.com/049358_Chinese_economy_housing_bubble_economic_collapse.html#
“and even within those, price gains are nor universal.”
not universal
The world as you knew it is over.
but we 60/40 no debt dogs feel fine
thankz for all the free info garth
Now that’s the kind of blog read I like… good ol Canadian real estate trashing.
Funny in Edmonton the stats they’re spewing makes it look all humpty dumpty but of course those are median stats and over six 1 million dollar homes sold last week so wazzooooo up went the average median price of all homes. lol
Garth, what’s the co-relationship with BOC (Steve Poloz & Gang) and the Harper government? What I mean is, wouldn’t warnings to the public about price corrections in GTA and Vancouver possibly cause panic or worry in the streets that would annoy the Feds? The real estate market is somewhat of a diversion away from other real economic concerns in the country. One would think they might be inclined to try to muzzle Poloz…?
Excellent explanation why an index average doesn’t equate individual performance. I’m sure plenty of people are surprised their house/condo isn’t worth another 9% this year.
Renters in Victoria who have avoided entering the local housing market since 2008 are probably quite relieved they didn’t buy when realtors and others told them that real estate always goes up.
There are thousands of underwater mortgage holders in Victoria who can’t sell without taking a significant loss.
Renters, on the other hand, have enjoyed cheap rent, subsidized by their landlords, while watching house prices correct. Renters don’t pay for maintenance, condo fees, special assessments, property taxes or a realtor commission when they move.
You could probably already say that some landlords envy renters in Victoria.
It’s just been smart to choose to rent over buying for the first time in Victoria for at least the last half decade.
Renters in Victoria will continue to be able to watch house prices fall safely from the sidelines while they enjoy their subsidized rent.
Debt sucks, especially debt with extreme leverage on an asset that is falling on value.
Sucks to own a condo. Anyone how they get the crains of the roof when they’re done?
#190 Mel Eager (from yesterday)
“But does anything think confidently that Oakville and Burlington prices, will hold for at least 2 more years?”
Well, I was going to respond to your post but no need now. Garth answered your question. Reread todays post. Read it again. Several more times if need be.
You didn’t say why you want to wait 2 years (retirement?) but whatever it is, you are taking a huge unnecessary gamble if you postpone selling. “A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.”
A coworker was showing pics of his new house in NJ (15 min on car and you’re at the city centre).
3br
2500 ft
0.5 ac
trees in backyard
seller did all upgrades (those considered “luxury” in Torontas)
300k
Hehe
Would be over 1mln in Torontas.
PS When these dumb realtors learn That It Is Really Retarted Way Of Making Text Ad When All Words Are Capital?
Condos are the 1st to crash and the last to go back up…I used to work with condo owners who complained “I didn’t sign up for this!” I would tell them “oh yes you did!” when cash calls would occur cuz they’re condo fees weren’t high enough.
why buy a vote when a cheap hack will do
Touchscreen voting machines used in numerous elections between 2002 and 2014 used “abcde” and “admin” as passwords and could easily have been hacked from the parking lot outside the polling place, according to a state report.
The AVS WinVote machines, used in three presidential elections in Virginia, “would get an F-minus” in security, according to a computer scientist at tech research group SRI International who had pushed for a formal inquiry by the state of Virginia for close to a decade.
https://freedom-to-tinker.com/blog/jeremyepstein/decertifying-the-worst-voting-machine-in-the-us/
=
Meet the e-voting machine so easy to hack, it will take your breath away
Virginia decertifies device that used weak passwords and wasn’t updated in 10 years.
by Dan Goodin – Apr 15, 2015 2:55pm EDT
Told the wife 2 weeks ago.
“New 2 beddy condos in Hintonburgh will be for rent in two years. $1500 tops. Parking included.”
We then looked at comparables In TDot.
Bottoming out for sure.
No hurry to buy or move.
Poloz is holding on for dear life. Poor guy.
When this gets ugly, even Ottawa won’t be untouched.
Regarding the “bail-ins” that were announced last year, here is a good summation of what actually took place and was agreed to:
In case you missed the announcement, Cyprus-style bail-ins are coming to a bank near you.
On November 16, leaders of the G20 Group of Nations – the 20 largest economies – made an important decision. The world’s megabanks now have official permission to pledge depositor accounts as collateral to make leveraged derivative bets. And if they lose a bet, the counterparty to the contract has first dibs on your money.
The governments of these 20 countries are now supposed to put these arrangements into law. Most, including the US, have already done so.
Read more here: http://www.nestmann.com/its-official-the-worldwide-bail-ins-are-coming#.VTBM9fnF_vY
Wrong. No bail-in will occur in Canada, the US or any major Euro nation. Suggest you stop visiting tinfoil websites. — Garth
“After all, the banks are down and oils have been plastered. But other segments of the markets have done fine. As a result, 2015 is sweet so far for investors who picked the right equities, or just got smart and bought an ETF which tracks the index.”
Shows either your ignorance or lack of critical thinking ability. If the banks and oils were plastered then anyone who bought an ETF would not have do so well, as banks and Oils are a huge part of the index. Not only have you failed to predict the housing market…
Today’s post resonates perfectly with what I have observed first hand in many present real estate Canadian markets.
It always amazes me that housing prices seem to be so important to the bank of Canada and other governing institutions and the economy in general yet there is no concise or believable information available on the topic other than cartel generated spins.
Unreal. Only in Canader maybe.
“while Fort Mac is a smoky hole.”
Can’t resist….
And I thought he just liked AC & LV.
Did anyone catch the Fem chick attacking Mario Draghi’s desk juring the euro central bank meeting yesterday??LOL
Maybe that’s why Poloz looked somewhat uncomfortable juring his press conference.
How sad the these high positions in Central banking are controlled by such girly men
One gets the feeling that confidence is Not their strong suit
I save at least $1500/mo renting my Yorkville condo versus owning… if something breaks, I don’t pay to fix it.
Life is great!
More evidence — released today by the Economist — that Canada’s property market is severely overheated.
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21648624-housing-markets-across-globe-both-underperform-and-overwhelm-property-puzzles
Condos are siting empty on the market looking to sell to any sucker. If you are thinking about buying a condo knock off 20-30% and tell them take it or leave it. You can do it until you find someone who is in financial stressed to bend to your demands. If you are looking to rent a condo tell them what you are willing to pay. Never except what they are asking. I know a condo owner who rented at cash flow negative and tried to sell his condo. A year later and a drop of $55k and still renting at a loss and no buyers( in the st Clair and bathurst area). It’s fun watching the indebted condo “owners” losing their shirt. With many condo “owners” who borrowed from the fake equity from their houses to buy a money losing condo I would say the house of cards in TO is about to fall.
The tail of two countries.
Garth you really had vision when you started this pathetic blog. MSM and the central planning are going insane right now. Exponentially losing its audiance, influence, and control.
MSM broadcasts an un true narrative , its instantly challenged and debunked by the online community. And control is flabergasted after the polling is done.
They think, North Korea, Russia , China have an army of Hasbra brigadees. They don’t. What control is up against, are people who have legitimate questions, that are never answerd with a logical , believable answer. The modus operandi descends to the questioner being attacked by name calling. I Give you building 7
Spain had band all protest, turkey shuts down twitter, western counties that are Neocon friendly are looking at ways of shutting down our communications.
Seams no ones affraid of speaking there minds on twitter even with knowllage that big bro sees all. Sure consequences are inevitable but no one seams worried.
The world is in perilous danger, the Neocons have lost their minds.
The USA lost its way when My Hero Ronald Regain left office. But his right hand man is still around and this is what he thinks.
Poor millennials, frighted of fake global warming, when mushroom clouds are close.
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/04/15/will-washington-kill-us-paul-craig-roberts/
Renting a condo is great. Owning, not so much. I lived in one for a year that had been newly constructed. 2nd floor. Then they started doing development across the road (actually across the road from my unit and across the road from the other building corner). Quickly became apparent that my unit would be looking forward to permanent midnight, so I decided to move at the end of the lease. Nice building, nice unit, and I enjoyed living there. Oh, and when I moved out I saw a notice on the board beside the mail boxes informing the owners that a feasibility study had been completed and their artificially low maintenance fees would be doubling to a more reasonable level. Mobility is so underrated.
Why isn’t Poloz’s comment about Vancouver housing on the front page of the Vancouver Sun?
It would be nice to see that instead of a story about one Chinese National who bought a $51 million house.
….”The world as you knew it is over”…
You bet!
When a duplex have an asking price of $230,000. (in QC) and you are in negative revenue at the end of the year..something wrong!
Even if you live in the 3.5 basement and rent the first floor, you will have to pay $1,000. monthly…+ this, +that and this and that!!
What an investment! Some will not be able to sell…
Garth – glad to hear no bail-in will occur in Canada. Can you elaborate a little on why? Is it legally possible but you think it will do too much harm to confidence, or simply not even legal? Genuine question!
But you can have much better sex in your condo… :)
Debt does not solve problems in the economy; debt in a house is a small to dead revenue. Only small amount of debt, and only to small business, is the correct avenue.
#3 Beer Ombudsman…Wildrose-NDP coalition sounds good to me. It seems to me a person votes for the party and not the MP so if that is the case everyone should vote NDP to eliminate the Conservatives and the Liberals then vote for the Green or other. The NDP are the “bread and butter” and the only ones who stand up for us.
My real-estate investment trusts have done well and are not taxed.
They pay me monthly and I don’t have to deal with a tenant.
$AAR.UN (Pure Industrial)
$REI.UN (RIO Can)
$HR.UN (H&R)
$D.UN (Dream)
Or you can just buy ZRE ETF.
Does anybody really want to live 22 floors up, in a 550 square foot shoebox condo, that you really don’t even own (just the airspace inside), overlooking the 401, in a cold climate city with a dysfunctional government, while awaiting the “special assessment” letter to arrive to replace all the windows? Jeez.. I cannot even imagine what a beating that would be.
At least when my funds, or stocks go to hell, I can sell in an instant, or wait to recover. – No carrying charges, no utilities, no taxes, no maintenance fees!
Sweet Deal!! Yeah, sometimes I don’t get ’em right!
market is running on fumes
Odds strongly favour a serious correction
If the Fed raises watch out. It will lay the foundation for a crisis much worse than 08
It won’t be right away. Rising U.S. Rates may at first cause a brief but sharp correction in most assets but after that U.S. Stocks may very well explode higher as money panics out of Japan and Europe into the U.S.
Most of these homeDEBTRENTERS will be destroyed once Job losses or rates go up and both are certain to occur with 3-5 years
JO
What the hell are those filthy weeds on the counter? Is that what passes for a vegetable garden in tranna?
Bailin’ bail-in.
Q: How do you bail in negative all around balances?
A: Same way the hyperinflationists think debt is going to turn into wheel-barrels cash: By way of a Miracle! Alleluia!
@ #12 Victoria Real Estate Update on 04.16.15 at 7:17 pm
Renters don’t pay for maintenance, condo fees, special assessments, property taxes…
Hehe – most if not all that is all INCLUDED in the RENTAL PRICE !
Men of Wealth and Taste: Explaining Mortgage Backed Securities Fraud and Pension Fund Looting
http://maxratt.com/blog/2011/05/men-of-wealth-and-taste/
[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/04/16/tale-of-two-markets/ […]
You can get heated potty seats?
Thats something for the bucket list lol
Garth – again some good posts over the last few days.
So we agree – never buy a Condo – many reasons.
Not sure if we agree that as long as rates stay at current levels NO RE IMPLOSION or correction.
I have no idea when rates will go up significantly from current levels – I know they will eventually. I have no personal reason to try to predict timing – but do try to stay informed to adjust my portfolio or balance between RE and other stuff. I have structured mine to deal with a decade long of low interest rates – so far 5 year in looks like a safe call.
You ( and Mondani) continue to be obsessed with your predictions that Canadian RE has to correct – just like the Gold bugs can only appreciate the shiny stuff at their own peril.
So are you now softening your stance that not all RE is equal? not all markets are equal? WOW welcome to reality!
For Canada take out Van and GTA and who cares about the rest – meaning they do not define price appreciation nor major correction for the rest of the country – most of the time pretty stable or easier to predict – but forecasters are blinded with using statistics to justify their bias.
Keep up the good work – I enjoy most of your posts – but like Smoking Man a lot depends how many Scotches I have had before I can truly appreciate the full impact of your posts….
Wrong. No bail-in will occur in Canada, the US or any major Euro nation. Suggest you stop visiting tinfoil websites. — Garth
He’s right, by the time we get to that stage. Those of you that survive the blast , will be on your hands and knees eating your last meal a few blades of radio active grass.
When you hear the breaking news, ICBMs are on the way. Head toward downtown. It will be fast.
When I say I’m running out of time to publish the book, its not that somethings wrong with me.. Healthy as shit.
A 10 year dyslexic effort , a master piece that no one will have the fun reading..that prospect pisses me off.
I appeal to every member of control, talk to your leaders , stop this madness. Russia should not be fkd with..
Not wrong very often…. I’m sending Harpo a letter. As well as heather, this insanity must stop.
I had a few errands to do today in New Westminster, Burnaby and Vancouver. Every second road I took was either blocked or narrowed.
Why? Mad construction absolutely everywhere. Mostly condos upon condos upon more condos. They’re still being built everywhere in the Lower Mainland at a fever pitch. Identical crap boxes.
Its not just stuff that has been underway for a year or two. Much new ground is still being broken.
Just sayin’. Can’t end well, can it?
Wrong. No bail-in will occur in Canada, the US or any major Euro nation. Suggest you stop visiting tinfoil websites. — Garth
Not sure why people keep reading these tinfoil web sites. They’ve been criminally wrong forever. I do business in the U.S. and my revenues have been increasing for half a decade now.
Smoking Man,
Yes, global warming is a hoax, a tax grab for Wynne and her socialist tools. Putin getting close to snapping.
I had a horrible dream I was on the 401 near pickering at night heading towards Toronto. Off in the distance I saw a mushroom cloud. Scared the hell out of me. I think I took too much melatonin. The neo-cons are flat out in panic mode, and WW3 is looming.
Good news, our building permits are down -55% compared to last year. Building is off to a crap start. Those stats won’t be released for a while, so thank your building inspector insider.
Prices are way up, bidding wars all over. Granite is going in tomorrow, house is going up for sale on Monday. Time to rent and enjoy a six figure profit, invested of course.
This home ownership thing is eating my time, learning Objective-C is a better use. Your son is smart, programming will be an essential skill in 10 years, ie, everyone will need to know some language.
Talking to computers, who’d have thought it?
RE: #157 Shawn Allen on 04.16.15 at 9:25 am
From a quick look at the link I could not see the nature of the prefs in this ETF. Maybe it’s there?
http://www.blackrock.com/ca/individual/en/products/239836/?referrer=tickerSearch
I downloaded the CSV spreadsheet file and did an average on all the holdings. Not exactly correct, as I should have used a weighted average, but I’m feeling lazy after not finding that function in OpenOffice Calc. The average price of all the holdings of CPD is $22.24 which is a 11% drop from $25 or a 14.5% drop from $26.
One other thing I’ve noticed is that some of CPD’s distributions are a return of capital and in some years also some capital gains.
#46 Leo Trollstoy on 04.16.15 at 10:12 pm
Wrong. No bail-in will occur in Canada, the US or any major Euro nation. Suggest you stop visiting tinfoil websites. — Garth
Not sure why people keep reading these tinfoil web sites. They’ve been criminally wrong forever. I do business in the U.S. and my revenues have been increasing for half a decade now.
…..
Criminally wrong?, not just wrong, but criminally wrong?..so much for freedom of speach.
When I read something like this, first question in my mind, is . is he dumb, is he up someone’s ass for a payoff. Or did he drink the cool aid.
Experimenting with a Jack and Scotch. Brings out a bit of aggression I’m noticing.
I love tin foil web sites, I’m smoking man and I endorse this message.
I don’t get how so many of you here beleive the ass media hype about Mr Putin and that he’s about to snap and send nukes over Canada and onto the US. He’s not as dumb as NATO’s gen Breedlove. What a name for a war gentleman! Talk about contradiction.
“The world as you knew it is over.”
For god’s sake bring it on. And hurry up! I don’t like the world as I have come to understand it. I want to live in a conservative world. I am conservative. And by saying that I am certain that steven harper hates my guts and others like me for being conservative. I don’t give a shit about “growth.” I just want a conservative government and a BoC that is conservative. Alas, Justin Trudeau will not be elected because he IS conservative. A coalition will not happen between the only conservative party and the NDP until conservativeness is necessary. That would be when the current liberal stance is dysfunctional and all the money that can possibly be made has been made and made safe.
#40 John
@ #12 Victoria Real Estate Update on 04.16.15 at 7:17 pm
Renters don’t pay for maintenance, condo fees, special assessments, property taxes…
Hehe – most if not all that is all INCLUDED in the RENTAL PRICE !
================
No – the market determines the rental price. If you can rent your condo above those costs, you make money; if you can’t, you lose money.
CO
I’m not saying the Ukraine isn’t a potential problem but here’s Al Jazeera’s take on the behind-the-scenes US/Russia diplomacy. This Arab backed news source often has a different, more informative slant than the US MSM. (Of course I know they have an agenda). Could it be that Putin acts the tough patriot for the home crowd but is actually quite sane?
“US and Russia: Axes of expediency
What is going on between Moscow and Washington beyond malaise in Ukraine and missiles to Iran?”
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/04/russia-axes-expediency-150415053202212.html
Putin isn’t ‘cracking’. Stop believing US propaganda ‘journalism’
Sold a condo 14 years ago, exact size near downtown with no flashy amenities for 174k.
Price appreciation isn’t what people are making it out to be.
Houses cost money. Period.
Something to cheer everyone up….
http://terriblerealestateagentphotos.com
Ignorant? in which sense of the word?
Tom on 04.16.15 at 8:09 pm
“After all, the banks are down and oils have been plastered. But other segments of the markets have done fine. As a result, 2015 is sweet so far for investors who picked the right equities, or just got smart and bought an ETF which tracks the index.”
Shows either your ignorance or lack of critical thinking ability. If the banks and oils were plastered then anyone who bought an ETF would not have do so well, as banks and Oils are a huge part of the index. Not only have you failed to predict the housing market…
**************************************
Tom, you may have missed the part that said the TSX is up 6.06%. This is about what an ETF of the TSX composite would have returned. Believe it or not there are other sectors in that have done well and apparently outweighed the weakness in oil and banks.
It’s fair to be critical of bad calls (like if someone, who shall remain nameless in a vain attempt to avoid a pithy and sharp insult directed my way, called for house prices to sink and did so continuously since 2008 and if they instead rose a lot with hardly a breather) but I don’t think the comment on the ETF is fair here.
Interesting speech from Sen. Elizabeth Warren: The Unfinished Business of Financial Reform. Sounds really tedious, right? In fact, she’s the dominatrix of the financial markets and is bringing out the whips and chains.
“without some basic rules and accountability, financial markets don’t work. People get ripped off, risk-taking explodes, and the markets blow up. That’s just an empirical fact – clearly observable in 1929 and again in 2008.”
http://www.warren.senate.gov/files/documents/Unfinished_Business_20150415.pdf
Interesting, but off topic, in spite of all the nasty ad hominem (or ad feminem) remarks here about Ms. Wynne in Ontario, large parts of the world could soon be ruled by sensible older blonde ladies.
Riding the Trend… to under performance
I love it that there are so many investors who do no analysis but simply assume that trends will continue. So when oil was $45 they bet it would keep going lower and when the dollar was 78 cents they were sure it was going to 70 cents.
I love it because value investors who do analysis, after all, need someone to beat. Thank you.
#59 Nora Lenderby thank you for the article…
I’d like to recommend Michael Lewis’, Liar’s Poker, The Big Short, the Money Culture and Flash Boys, – at least a Canadian plays a hero’s role in Flash Boys – small comfort, given the general state of most things financial.
Regina down 5% in the last year, plus 5-7% the 12 months before that.
So, 10-12% in the last two years, with a “great economy”. What happens when a real slow down occurs? Like next year…
On the other side, new home building was down 30% last year at this time. It’s now down another 30% from last year. That is about a 50% decline from 2013. Quite a few people losing jobs….
I predict we have a ways to go yet.
Interesting video
http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=592892
Renting isn’t all what it is made out to be. We just received our rent increase, and the increase is slightly up more than is allowable. And yes I verified the increase with the Rental Tendency Branch. And, still no repairs. Must be nice when there is a different classification of people here in Canada, no wonder the Rich stay Rich, have to rob someone, I suppose. No matter when the chance arrives we are moving on to a better horizon, a home at the price we can afford. The landlords can pound sand, and suck in another poor soul. And, yes when their property taxes, and maintenance goes up the tenant pays dearly.
#59 Nora Lenderby — “[L]arge parts of the world could soon be ruled by sensible older blonde ladies.”
Yeah, but the Greeks aren’t going to like it!
Hi Garth, just wanted to share this with you on the back of your sage cousel to Australian independent Senator Nick Xenophon.
http://www.prosper.org.au/2015/04/17/xenophon-changes-tune-on-super-access/
#15 No Canada, No on 04.16.15 at 7:39 pm
I can’t be the only one who appreciates the irony of the use of “Retarted”
Some old fuddy duddy suggested we go out and vote, if we wanted the housing market fixed. To a man, the table burst out laughing. No one votes any more. None of my friends have ever voted in any kind of election. We’re all Vancouverites, good jobs and roughly early to mid 30s. All that election stuff is a waste of time, we know the rich really run everything here.
My portfolio is doing fine but this is brutal. I’ve been waiting on a correction for half-decade. Looks like it’ll be another 5 years.
Mark’s a man of his word huh?
#51 John in Mtl
There won’t be any attacks by Putin with “nukes” that is old school. What we are looking at are nation states or hackers taking control of critical infrastructure. As computers/internet become more connected,our vulnerability grows. A small example, the newer jets Boeing 787,Airbus A380,A350 have a single network that is used by the pilots to fly the plane and passengers to use their Wi-Fi connections. A bit of a problem! All it would take is a hacker on board or on the ground and they could get into the planes avionics and do what ever they want. The down side to all of this is technology, we just happen to live in two of the most networked countries on the planet!!
Another $20 Million + buy in Vancouver today.
Still think its locals Garth?
This one is HAM. Guy is in China.
Would someone mind reposting (or providing a link) to the list of reasons that one should not vote for Harper. I saw a list here about a month or so ago and forgot to bookmark it.
I’d be much obliged for help in this matter.
So when has anybody believed a realtor anyways? I’m looking at houses here in Victoria and one realtor said that it was a hot market, so prices are going up. Yet, most houses are selling a lot less than asking, his included, or are seeing the listing expire. I guess he didn’t get the memo.
Realtors seem to believe their own hype!
#12 Victoria Real Estate Update on 04.16.15 at 7:17 pm
“Renters, on the other hand, have enjoyed cheap rent, subsidized by their landlords, while watching house prices correct.”
Sold both properties and have been renting since, with no increase in 5 years. And counting. The owner, on the other hand, has been paying special assessments for each of those years and there are at least 2 more to come. Doesn’t want to lose reliable tenants who take great care of the place- sweet.
We keep an eye on local rentals- and there are plenty- so that if ever an increase is even hinted at, we can simply hop to a new one. Lease terms are also excellent: only 3 months notice required.
“Some old fuddy duddy suggested we go out and vote, if we wanted the housing market fixed. To a man, the table burst out laughing. No one votes any more. None of my friends have ever voted in any kind of election. We’re all Vancouverites, good jobs and roughly early to mid 30s. All that election stuff is a waste of time, we know the rich really run everything here.”
What a shock; YVR is populated by fools and greater fools.
Live it up!
Well those good numbers re Canada, and crap numbers USA
Just about guarantees no canada rate cut. And no USA rate hike.. For awhile.
“The adverse impact of the oil price shock in Alberta and continued robust price growth in Toronto and Vancouver suggest a risk of a correction in these markets. While historical experience suggests that localized Canadian house price cycles, both in terms of the factors behind the boom as well as the correction, have typically not spilled over to other regions, it would be a major event if it occurred.”
TRANSLATION:
Alberta is FINISHED, and Tronna and Vancouver’s gonna blow up. Big time. We just hope that Owen Sound don’t slide into Georgian Bay, it’s such a nice little town. And we pray that Cape Breton don’t float out to sea because that would be bad for their sauerkraut crop and, as you all know, Cape Breton sauerkraut prolongs life. And it’s tasty too! We at the Bank of Canada regularly serve Cape Breton sauerkraut in our Canadian-foods-only cafeteria. But don’t squeeze it and rinse it and squeeze it and rinse it and then squeeze it some more and then fry it up in lard like the Germans do, because we all know what happened to the Germans. You gotta eat it raw and cold to get the benefits. So refreshing! It also kills weeds and bugs. We at the Bank of Canada regularly apply it to our flower beds which is why we have such nice flowers. Our leader, Mr. Poloz, uses it in the mornings before he comes to work, as a face mask, which is why his cheeks are so rosy all the time.
I’ve seen this before.
When the economy heats up like this and everyone has to have everything such that the demand begins to outstrip supply to such an extent that trades can charge extortionist rates and get them because everyone is clamoring over one another to live Rock Star lives is a signal that SHIFT is about to happen.
Our economy tends to follow a seven to ten year cycle pattern. What was it happened about seven years ago?
Just sayin’
Might be three years away but…
SHIFT happens.
B.T.W. from the time of the last SHIFT to date, did prices fall as much as you thought they would? Where do you think we are today compared to before that last SHIFT?
Seven to ten year cycles on the saw blade upward trajectory of the economy.
SHIFT happens, learn to ride the tide. };-)
#76 Smoking Man
“Well those good numbers re Canada, and crap numbers USA
Just about guarantees no canada rate cut. And no USA rate hike.. For awhile.”
You beat me to it. C$ likes it, and for all the non-Mark reasons.
No rate drop in Canada this Spring and the US rate hike is on schedule for this year. — Garth
“The moral of the story: some stocks are winners. Some are dogs. Same with real estate. But while you can live in a condo you paid too much for, a stock doesn’t have a monthly maintenance fee of $391”
Just to be fair, same thing can be said the other way around. Assuming both are dogs, while the stock can’t feed you or shelter you , the condo can.
No rate drop in Canada this Spring and the US rate hike is on schedule for this year. — Garth
……
I hope your right, whenever you do hit these out of the park. You writing improves greatly on you next column.
All Harley and cowboy boots, and if were lucky some eye candy in the pic.
its been awhile …
Soon landlords will envy tenants. The world as you knew it is over. — Garth
———————————————
How many times in the past have we heard such statements – “It is over, It has begun, Hope you sold, You had your chance” etc.
It’s never “over” till the fat lady sings – Her name is Ms. Rates.
1. Rates haven’t even STARTED inching up.
2. When they do, they’re not guaranteed to keep rising. A stuttering economy will dictate BoC actions.
3. Even if they rise steadily (big IF), it will take many years before it affects people’s finances.
4. Even if today’s 800k home sells for the same price after 5-10 years, that alone represents a 15-25% price drop in real (inflation adjusted) terms. Most people assume a “drop” means that home can be grabbed for 700k or 650k after a few years – That may happen, but not necessarily.
All said & done, it’s very possible the market cools so gradually that it’s business as usual for 5years more.
When the economy heats up like this and everyone has to have everything such that the demand begins to outstrip supply to such an extent that trades can charge extortionist rates and get them because everyone is clamoring over one another to live Rock Star lives is a signal that SHIFT is about to happen.
______________________________________
Actually, I see a shift too, and it’s a shift by people to be more frugal. I see more older cars on the road than I have in years, I see more financially savvy teens too. I see young people making future plans that are sane and rational and financially prudent.
It’s not all doom and gloom. The correction that people wanted in real estate has become an obsolete thought. A correction in price now means prices might come down to what they were a couple of years ago. Big deal. People are accepting the new reality that we live in a very expensive world and we are being out-competed for our own resources by people in the global economy who make a LOT more money than we do. Deal with it.
I find it fascinating that people live in these vaccumms of time and space where they put all their ideas, financial plans into one stream of thinking. They live in the “if” zone. “If” prices would only go down, “if” I could only get that job. etc etc.
Do what you need to do, either embrace risk or avoid it. Take into account an honest estimation of what you can handle when it comes to debt. If the debt means you can start a family and buy a house and you don’t plan to binge on cheap credit then do it. .
Which are blogdogs live in Oakville ?
Do you think prices will go up for the next couple years?
If prices correct, how fast will the melt be potentially?
Or will my now $600,000 3 bedroom bung on 60 X 120 coast at this price for years to come?
Talked to an old friend. 30 something. SFH in Toronto, made bully offer then added tens of thousands after the sign back. Embarrassing.
#49 kommykim on 04.16.15 at 10:17 pm
I’ve been averaging down on CPD and ZPR. Both in the red. Do I care? Absolutely–I love it! Buying as much as my allocations and budget allow.
The more whining I hear about preferreds having lost value, the more I want to buy them from frightened lemmings.
#78 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 04.17.15 at 9:28 am
The “SHI(F)T” you keep blathering about has definitely happened in my condo. Several owners now trying to sell, with a few already 3 years + sitting idle. The unit that most resembles ours has lowered the asking price $50K in the last two years and still nothing.
The shi(f)t has hit the fan in Kelowna real estate.
And this is the sort of “reporting” on real estate journalists do nowadays, and I quote:
“He advises house and condo buyers to work with an experienced real estate agent who won’t let them be carried away by emotion in a bidding contest.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/carried-away-bidding-wars-push-homes-past-bank-valuation/article23983674/
Garth sometimes I don’t understand why you allow Smoking Man (who is probably a 30 year old NEET) to spam your comments sections.
It makes your blog look so amateurish to see Mr.Godlikeproductions.com vomiting his stream-of-consciousness nuttery all over what could be, a professional blog.
Put him on a 24 hour comment timer or something.
The cinderella story continues for the housing market in some Canadian cities.People who bought houses foresaw the future in real estate in Canada.Very high immigration,lower interest rates and very lax money laundering laws to buy real estate.The pot of gold at the end of the rainbow was owning a house for your average blue collar or white collar worker.Many Canadians will retire millionaires and have a wonderful retirement thanks to just buying a simple house in a few cities in Canada.On the flip side many Canadians will suffer immensely to gain that same piece of the pie for the next few years.
#84 Oakville Owner
According to the OMREB MLS stats, in March 2015 Oakville suffered its eighth straight monthly Y/Y sales volume decline. The sequence from Aug 2014 to March 2015 looks as follows. -15%, -20%, -2%, -13%, -21%, -1%, -21%, -8%. However Y/Y average prices were higher in all those months until Mar 2015, where we saw a 1.5% decline. Whether this is the start of a downward price trend or is a blip, the next few months will tell I think.
This looks to me like at best a stagnant market, with the most pessimistic (or optimistic depending on your perspective) view being that we will see significant price declines in the near future to match the volume declines. I think April and May stats will tell us which way the market is going. If they are bad, watch out below!
My own view is that certain segments at least are struggling badly in the Oakville market. One such segment is the high priced, new custom builds ($1.8M+) which are located in not-quite-prime areas. There are a large number of these that have been sitting empty for a long time, in spite of some price drops – many take a year to 18 months to move. I think the prices of these will have to decline further to move them at an acceptable rate.
Other than that I would suggest watching the stats for April and May closely, and make you decisions based on those.
#82 Kris
Because sensationalizing things is what keeps people interested. We’ve all been on the edge of our seats for 6 years. But you’re right what we really should be doing is laying back checking our emails on our phone, occasionally glancing at the screen. Housing prices are going nowhere fast. how much have prices reeealllyy even come down in Calgary?
#84 Oakville Owner on 04.17.15 at 11:19 am
Which are blogdogs live in Oakville ?
Do you think prices will go up for the next couple years?
If prices correct, how fast will the melt be potentially?
Or will my now $600,000 3 bedroom bung on 60 X 120 coast at this price for years to come?
___________________________________________
I’m an Oakviller whom just unloaded his old ranch for $1.59 M about two months ago. I’m out only because I just don’t need the size anymore and the wife wanted town-home here and town-home in Nassau. Still on the fence about Nassau so we are going to rent for the first year to try. Honestly my home was not worth the $1.59M that the owners bought it for. But they wanted it and I’m not sure if its heading for a bulldozing or staying as is. I thought it was as good a time as any to get the hell out of Dodge. Well sort of, in my case downsize.
I see the Harper Government will now enable more rich seniors to collect OAS and even the GIS, lowering their current tax payable and deferring it until death (or later, in the case of a spousal rollover).
“For the 2011 election, only 39 per cent of voters aged 18 to 24 turned out to vote. In contrast, 72 per cent of Canadians aged 55 to 64 turned out and 75 per cent of voters aged 65 to 74 cast ballots. Voter turnout among those aged 75 and older was lower, at 60 per cent.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/federal-budget-to-benefit-seniors-including-relaxation-of-rrif-rules/article24003889/
According to FP, there’s “foreign money” (not HAM) parking in Canadian “covered bonds” because yield is crap in Euroland and I guess the Dollarette is still better than the Eurolira.
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/move-over-stephen-poloz-heres-the-real-reason-mortgage-rates-are-so-low-in-canada
It’s not a huge amount but who knows how much is coming into Canada and looking for ANY semblance of “guaranteed” yields.
Higher RE valuations are hurting Canadians who are going to suffer through an overall tough economy.
The bond market dictated interest rates in the Eighties and Canadian home owners took a beating. The bond market is again dictating interest rates and Canadians are again going to take a beating. Just not the way most people will expect.
There’s no upside to a Canadian family when over half their family budget goes to housing and related costs. Especially when job security is not guaranteed and loss of a couple pay cheques or reduction of income could put the family in dire financial straits.
Sure, housing values have increased and it looks great on paper! But until the property is sold, the valuation means nothing to the owner – unless they take out equity and go deeper into debt. The municipalities love the higher valuations because taxes can be raised.
As home “owner” in Greater Vancouver or GTA you may feel “richer than you think” but in reality, you are being bled dry.
Oh, banks love higher valuations and more debt too. Their profits are increasing year over year.
Time to take money off the table, folks.
#64 Carousel:
… and the tenant pays dearly.
So why don’t you move somewhere that’s better?
#95 Blame Draghi for high RE valuations! — “There’s no upside to a Canadian family when over half their family budget goes to housing and related costs. Especially when job security is not guaranteed and loss of a couple pay cheques or reduction of income could put the family in dire financial straits.”
Ah yes, Dire Straits. I remember it well. But there’s two distinctly different apropos episodes from the ’80s that fit that description. Does anyone remember them both?
http://goo.gl/9Pl2VU
http://goo.gl/pwlmCY
#89 anonymous on 04.17.15 at 12:16 pm
Garth sometimes I don’t understand why you allow Smoking Man (who is probably a 30 year old NEET) to spam your comments sections.
It makes your blog look so amateurish to see Mr.Godlikeproductions.com vomiting his stream-of-consciousness nuttery all over what could be, a professional blog.
Put him on a 24 hour comment timer or something.
……
This happens every time you use the word Neocon.
I’m trying to save the world damn it.
House prices here in van have risen so much since this blog started (2008)it would take a massive fall to loose the great tax free gains made by utilizing leverage and stability the average investor could only dream of , this year will go by as another where people wait with baited breath for something that’s never going to happen, even a one economy province like Alberta is not going to give this blog and the loser renters that frequent it vindication. Sorry vancouverites keep dreamin
“For the 2011 election, only 39 per cent of voters aged 18 to 24 turned out to vote. In contrast, 72 per cent of Canadians aged 55 to 64 turned out and 75 per cent of voters aged 65 to 74 cast ballots. Voter turnout among those aged 75 and older was lower, at 60 per cent”
Old people vote more, what a news flash.
What % of the overall vote was contributed by those aged 75+?
http://manhattanda.org/press-release/da-vance-bnp-paribas-bank-sentenced-forfeiture-nearly-8.9-billion-penalties-following-g
April 15, 2015
DA VANCE: BNP PARIBAS BANK SENTENCED TO FORFEITURE OF NEARLY $8.9 BILLION IN PENALTIES FOLLOWING GUILTY PLEA TO CRIMINAL CHARGES
http://manhattanda.org/press-release/da-vance-bnp-paribas-bank-sentenced-forfeiture-nearly-89-billion-penalties-following-g
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-16/america-s-most-wanted-swiss-bankers-aren-t-hard-to-find
#74 maxx
“Sold both properties and have been renting since, with no increase in 5 years. And counting. The owner, on the other hand, has been paying special assessments for each of those years and there are at least 2 more to come. Doesn’t want to lose reliable tenants who take great care of the place- sweet.
We keep an eye on local rentals- and there are plenty- so that if ever an increase is even hinted at, we can simply hop to a new one. Lease terms are also excellent: only 3 months notice required.”
I know of several examples of special assessments on Victoria condos in the last couple of years, one was $80 k for each unit. Renters have no such worries.
Indeed there are plenty of rentals available in greater Victoria. In Langford and Colwood there are at least 5 massive new apartment buildings either being built or completed that look like condos. I’ve been told that most have in-suite laundry. A lot more rental inventory about to hit the market.
As far as rental increases are concerned, I know of several people who are paying the same or less than 5 years ago on the same property.
#84 Oakville Owner — “Which are blogdogs live in Oakville ? Do you think prices will go up for the next couple years? If prices correct, how fast will the melt be potentially?”
First off, we don’t have a clue. Even if we did, would you really trust investment advice on one of your biggest assets to a bunch of barking mad pseudonymous fools?
Second, you can guess. Look at the Case Shiller indexes here:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/release?rid=199
Or google (or get a friend to help) for other sources. Also, Trulia has lots of home price history by zipcode, so pick a place in the US that is to its nearest metropolis as Oakville is to the GTA and take a look.
http://www.trulia.com/
If you want to know what the curve looks like, just google “x home prices” and click on ‘images’ for any place that has had a bust. Here’s Spain:
http://goo.gl/qj7KuC
We don’t really know for sure where we are on the curve, we can only guess. It sounds like you’re nervous, which might mean you’d lose more than you’re comfortable with if prices went down. So reduce your risk. Say your place is worth $600k, paid off. Sell, invest the cash in a diversified portfolio, and pull out 3% or so per year to pay the rent. The lump still grows (on average) at the rate of inflation or a bit better, you’re more diversified, and you can sleep better. If the rent costs a bit more than staying would have, call that the cost of insurance, but don’t forget to count all the ownership costs you’re no longer paying.
There’s a famous quote from a stock trader that says “Give up trying to catch the last eighth [of a dollar] – or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world.” If you’ve made a bundle on your house and are now worried about losing some of it, or of missing out on a bit more, remember that you should always leave something on the table for your buyer. If he doesn’t think the price is going to go up, why would he buy?
I sold a bungalow on a large lot in a decent area in Burlington for aged-out-of-the-house family members three years ago. It was a borderline redevelopment/renovation job. I had interest from both sides, but the renovate-to-live-in buyer was quicker. I got that money working in a diversified portfolio, and we’ve no regrets.
There’s no guarantees, but if you’re nervous now, do something about it. Change things so you’re more diversified, or less nervous, or have another source of income, or something. Hire Garth if you need to.
#87 Ogopogo
“The “SHI(F)T” … has definitely happened in my condo. Several owners now trying to sell, with a few already 3 years + sitting idle. The unit that most resembles ours has lowered the asking price $50K in the last two years and still nothing.
The shi(f)t has hit the fan in Kelowna real estate.”
In Victoria, older condos have declined in value by approximately 25-30% since 2010.
That same shi(f)t has hit the fan in Victoria real estate.
There is no shi(f)t hitting the fan for renters here in Victoria.
#90 Rexx Rock
Not entirely.
Garth has written about this many times before but real estate gains mean nothing until the house is sold and gains are harvested into investments. Remember these housing gains are always overstated and conveniently ignore every cost/hidden expense. Realtors love this. No problem there from me though, nothing wrong with folks making money, and if people are not bright enough to do their own research it is their fault.
However, I’m sure most of these housing winners you speak of took their capital gains and just bought a bigger house and took on more debt. Why else are Canadian debt levels so high statistically speaking?
That’s the problem with housing. It means zip unless you downsize into a different more cheaper place. Most of these delusional folks now believe they are mini Donald Trumps. They just go buy more real estate and rental properties without actually pulling out a calculator to punch the numbers. Risky.
Garth has also mentioned numerous times that the boomers entering retirement, who supposedly benefited the most from this housing boom, are not as well off as people think (HELOC’s, paltry savings, poor financial acumen, delusional idea that the younger generation will buy their over priced houses etc.)
That is the whole point of this blog: Diversification. As housing prices have reached outright hilarious levels, it becomes less and less possible to be diversified and debt free. Hence the debt levels again. Hence the present risk. Hence the need to educate.
If I was in that position I would sell, invest the proceeds, and then go live in a South East Asian country as a millionaire like Freedom First probably does.
MF
http://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/energy-sector-earnings-outlook-darkest-in-a-decade
I don’t believe that investors have taken the oil price plunge very seriously at all. Suncor is trading higher now than it did when WTI was $100! Many companies are prices to perfection as if high prices are here soon. Or next week at the latest. Some companies are hedged to a degree of course but when earnings are released in the next few weeks we hopefully should see stock prices get real.
Inflation at it’s core…
Statistics Canada said Friday the consumer price index for March was up 1.2 per cent from a year ago.
Excluding gasoline, the consumer price index was up 2.2 per cent compared with a year ago, matching the increase in February, while the Bank of Canada’s core index, which excludes the most volatile components, was up 2.4 per cent.
***************************************
So the core inflation is 2.4% (after stripping out food and gasoline) while the actual total inflation was 1.2%.
Whenever it is the other way around with core lower than headline, the nutbars scream that the Bank of Canada and stats Canada the government are “ignoring” food and gasoline and ask if they think people don’t buy food and gasoline.
But when the core is higher than the headline actual inflation, the nutbars are strangely silent.
So what about it nutbars? Are you ok with the smoothed core number this time?
#84 Oakville Owner
“Do you think prices will go up for the next couple of years?”
Reread todays blog. Zero in and reflect on this one line
“…because as detached houses become more and more expensive, the universe of potential buyers shrinks, despite record-low mortgages.”
Your $600,000. bungalow is only worth that when it is sold. Sell, rent for the couple of years, sleep soundly.
Dow down. MF how is your portfolio today? Or have you decided to wait 6 months before checking it like some of the brave souls on this blog suggested. Lol. . .anyone else check today?
If you check daily, you are truly a fool. Do you appraise your house daily? — Garth
“Dow down. MF how is your portfolio today? Or have you decided to wait 6 months before checking it like some of the brave souls on this blog suggested. Lol. . .anyone else check today?
If you check daily, you are truly a fool. Do you appraise your house daily? — Garth”
Checked mine. it is still up nicely vs. January, even without the dividends. Indeed he is a fool …
I see Mark is gone and the daily number of comments reduced by 50% …
BCD
Lol
I glanced last week and it wasn’t looking good. I was down about 800. I am probably down further today by who knows how much. Im scared to look lol.
I’m going to heed everyone’s advice and check in about 2 months minimum. Rebalancing minimum 6 months from now but probably closer to one year. It’s not easy to ignore my curiosity but I’m committed to those timelines.
MF
#89 anonymous on 04.17.15 at 12:16 pm
Garth sometimes I don’t understand why you allow Smoking Man (who is probably a 30 year old NEET) to spam your comments sections.
It makes your blog look so amateurish to see Mr.Godlikeproductions.com vomiting his stream-of-consciousness nuttery all over what could be, a professional blog.
Put him on a 24 hour comment timer or something.
__________________________________________
I didn’t think anyone actually read Smoking Fool’s comments. I have learned scroll right past them. You also have to learn to scroll past the multiple other names he posts under. His monikers change, but his style is the same–cryptic, stupid, pointless.
If you check daily, you are truly a fool. Do you appraise your house daily? — Garth
I Just thought of a question for the blog dogs.
I do plan on making regular contributions to my portfolio. Probably once a month. Is it better to contribute at rebalancing 6 months -1 year later and have your savings build up in cash instead?
MF
Remax radio ad today Van prices up 6.5% so far this year and forecast (crystal ball) to rise another 6.5% by Y/E. Price gains mostly for “single family houses on nice streets”. Of course they don’t say where these “nice streets” are, or get into any other specifics other than “prices are up”.
“I glanced last week and it wasn’t looking good. I was down about 800. I am probably down further today by who knows how much. Im scared to look lol.
I’m going to heed everyone’s advice and check in about 2 months minimum. Rebalancing minimum 6 months from now but probably closer to one year. It’s not easy to ignore my curiosity but I’m committed to those timelines.”
I going to suggest that these kind of rules are not necessary.
If you are afraid to look at your portfolio, it is probably too risky for your tolerance level.
today’s move is nothing, and we already had couple of such days in a row in the last 12 month. it will need to be many more such days before I would be interested to actually take a look at it (to see if there are some re-balancing opportunities)
Now, I am going to do suggest additional exercise for holders of 60%/40% portfolio. take your total amount invested (say it is 100K) remove 30% of it (it means you are left with 70K, albeit temporally) How do you feel now?
1) You are scared, and try to avoid your wife
2) You don’t care, and intend to go out – it is a nice day outside
3) You are happy, as you will be buying at a discounted price in the future
I know Garth says 2008 is not going to happen again, and maybe it won’t, but understanding your risk tolerance is critical for successful investment
By the way where is Mark lately?
I actually read all of his posts (slowly and with a dictionary nearby at all times).
MF
If you check daily, you are truly a fool. Do you appraise your house daily? — Garth
__________________________________
Answer for me is “No I don’t appraise it daily, my house is just a place to live not an investment”. That being said it is up more than it needs to be and unlikely to fall to the level we paid for it. Of course if it does I literally wouldn’t lose a minute of sleep over it. It’s a great place in a nice neighborhood and we plan to grow old here so who cares.
MF, no ill will intended. Hope you make a million bucks buddy.
#113 MF on 04.17.15 at 5:16 pm
If you check daily, you are truly a fool. Do you appraise your house daily? — Garth
I Just thought of a question for the blog dogs.
I do plan on making regular contributions to my portfolio. Probably once a month. Is it better to contribute at rebalancing 6 months -1 year later and have your savings build up in cash instead?
MF
———————
You are using ETFs through a brokerage account if I remember correctly?
If so, I would wait until enough cash has been built up before rebalancing if I were you. Transaction fees add up and can make a significant difference in your return.
It is a different story if you are using TD e-series tho…
Best,
HD
“I do plan on making regular contributions to my portfolio. Probably once a month. Is it better to contribute at rebalancing 6 months -1 year later and have your savings build up in cash instead?”
This really depends on the size of your portfolio / size of contributions and on your brokerage account
once a month seems like too much work for me
“By the way where is Mark lately?
I actually read all of his posts (slowly and with a dictionary nearby at all times).
MF”
Seems like you don’t read them all …
Mark made a bet with himself about the direction of the interest rate this Wednesday, and because he lost the bet he is banning himself from writing until next week …
For 72 anybodybutharper on 04.17.15 at 1:57 am
I kept it as it was worth keeping.
1. Contempt of Parliament (first PM in history),
2. prorogued Parliament for self-gain (x2),
3. liked about taxing income trusts,
4. lied about fixed election dates,
5. balls busted by the Supreme Court (multiple times),
6. criticized stacking the Senate, then stacked his own Senate,
7. criticized opposition omnibus bills, then loaded up his own omnibus bills, coining the new word “Harpocrisy”,
8. coined 200-page parliamentary committee disruption manual, with an enemies list
9. ‘In-and-Out scheme’ party riding funding scam,
10. PC logo (in-)Action Plan cheques scam,
11. total contempt for democracy,
12. (un-)Fair Election Act legalizes vote rigging and voter suppression,
13. RoboCall voter suppression,
14. muzzled Chief Electoral Officer investigations,
15. muzzled Canadian scientists,
16. muzzled the media,
17. policy announcements made overseas, too cowardly to make them here at home,
18. ‘Plagiarizing-the-Media’ bill passed to fund opposition attack ads,
19. tax audits of opposition think tanks,
20. $90,000 Mike Duffy scam,
21. $1.2 million Israel trip taxpayer scam,
22. $50 million John Baird/Tony Clement gazebo scam,
23. $100 million (in-)Action Plan advertizing scam,
24. $1.2 billion G20 scam, and oppression of free speech
25. $126 billion F35 cost overrun scam,
26. one-sided, war-mongering mouthpiece drawing Canadians into world conflict,
27. overseas photo ops with active service men and women, then
28. subsequently threw returning wounded Canadian Veterans under a bus,
29. diverted unspent Veteran funding toward income-splitting tax cuts for the wealthy,
30. Free Trade agreements gutted Canadian manufacturing,
31. Temporary Foreign Worker Programs to keep Canadian wages low
32. record unaffordable Canadian home ownership,
34. one-trick resource economy,
33. no economic backup plan, (oil)
34. never held a real job in his life,
35. no courage, no compassion, no integrity, no transparency, no accountability, no democracy, no apologies, no conscience, no class.
Of course by then rates will have normalized and house prices likely retreated. Garth u funny
Garth, you’re famous:
http://www.fool.ca/2015/04/17/buy-vs-rent-if-youre-thinking-about-buying-a-house-you-need-to-read-this/
#96
Yes, we are going to move to a better area.. we just hung in all those years renting to save money to purchase a home and retire .
What happens to our banks when the real estate down drafts and crushes the banks leveraged loan books and Google and Apple set up virtual banks with Apple Pay. Won’t they have lost their customers. Not a bright future for banking I think.
The fight is on and I know who is going to win.
@#120 Mike S
“Mark made a bet with himself about the direction of the interest rate this Wednesday, and because he lost the bet he is banning himself from writing until next week …”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I was WONDERING why the comments section only had 125 comments after 12 hours.
Marky Mark’s self imposed exile has been a boon to saving power all over Canada because 40,000 people havent been forced to scroll past his rambling self absorbed diatribe.
If Marky Mark can self regulate then perhaps there’s hope for policemen in Tim Horton’s parking lots doing “paperwork”. Or politicians actually balancing a budget without lying about it.
Its a whole new world