“American byers enticed by the low Canadian dollar are scooping up BC properties”, says Vancouver-based Macdonald Realty.
“Baby boomers continue to drive sales in the luxury real estate market, upsizing their homes while also helping their Gen-Y offspring with home purchases”, says a new report by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada.
“Nearly 40% of first-time homebuyers got some sort of down payment money from their parents before making the purchase”, says a study done my Genworth, the mortgage insurance company.
“From Albertan black gold to globetrotting wealth to lucky heirs, big money is flocking to Vancouver real estate and fueling huge price increases that show no sign of stopping”, says the CEO of Sotheby’s Canada in a report released today.
See a pattern here? Four MSM news stories so far this week. And it’s only Wednesday. How can the average plebe resist such pressure to buy now, or buy never? For realtors, this is the perfect storm – and many of them are out to make the best of a scenario they know can’t last.
Mortgage rates have collapsed. After all, who would ever have imagined the banks would be handing out 2.5% five-year loans? Meanwhile a slagging economy and worried federal government are putting more pressure on the Bank of Canada poodles to off rates at least one more time. Maybe two, says a former central banker this week. Maybe even three – taking the key bank rate to zero. While that would be proof we’re headed for a recession, and a potential housing slaughter, the real estate guys will cheer.
Then there’s the dollarette. Anyone from Guangdong or Seattle who’s been panting to buy a house in Toronto so they can enjoy seven months of winter and a subway that stops when it feels tired, or join the racial tensions swirling in YVR, can now do it with a 20% discount.
Finally, there’s momentum. In most markets people think their houses are vaults, and will only grow more valuable. After all, this is what the media tells them, daily.
Easy to see that in the GTA or the Lower Mainland, since the local real estate boards have proven that all ‘average’ houses are worth seven figures. (Now you know why realtors don’t provide median numbers – they’d rather have a run of expensive detached home sales dramatically drag up the average.) Even in poor Calgary, sales are down 51% and days-on-market are up 33%, yet the average price is unchanged from a year ago. Huh? Don’t these 6,000 families with houses listed and languishing want to find a buyer?
Sure they do. But they’re caught in the realtor web of ever-increasing expectations. Nobody in Canada, you see, ever sells a property for less than they paid. It’s the social equivalent of chemical castration. Oh. The shame. Better to sit on a house for six months and watch the local economy wither around you, amid a flapping forest of weathered For Sale signs, than accept a losing, lowball offer.
As I said, the perfect storm. Low rates. Cheap currency. Property-loving politicians. National house lust. If Genworth’s right (and it is) we’re already seeing a fat transfer of generational wealth, as the Boomers replace old real estate equity with new debt, so their kids can get new equity and even more new debt. Thus the concentration of new worth into a single asset increases, at the same time total leverage bloats further. March house sales were explosive in our last two remaining bubble markets, because of the January bank rate cut. Just imagine the added risk if the poodles repeat next Wednesday.
But all is not as it appears. Chad – a senior officer in the armed forces, currently stationed in Ottawa – just sent me this note:
As you know, I’m in the military. Because of that, I have a disproportionate amount of colleagues and friends who sell houses every year. Let me tell you, in Ottawa (and elsewhere), the market is dead. Most people have a false sense of what their house is worth and try to remain firm on their prices because their neighbour got a certain price the spring before. They are remaining stubborn on the pricing, even though the military pays all closing costs (and some equity loss). I try to knock some sense, but I’m the naysayer who rents. The general populace has no idea of what’s coming.
Meanwhile, remember those Millennials I referenced above, 40% of whom have been handed downpayments by their misguided parents? What a distaster this could turn out to be – in the event of job loss (definitely possible) or mortgage renewal at a higher rate (certain). Genworth found that even with the free money, almost 40% of the kids described themselves as “somewhat or strongly concerned about making ends meet, month-to-month.” One in 10 said their situation has deteriorated since buying.
In short, most people you know are on drugs. Govern yourself accordingly.
229 comments ↓
First?
Hey Garth?
Can you get an app up and running? We need a Greaterfool app; it’s the modern version of publishing a book.
Thanks for your commitment to educating us. You’ve really helped me a lot.
xo
Hmmm…if we can count on three more rate drops….then lets flip more houses!!
Flip mode ON in the 604! Just don’t get caught with an “investment property” when the music stops!
There is always a greater fool!
Way to go CANA-DUH! Woop! Woop!
And not on the good kind either…
The finance minister has said that deficits are acceptable only in times of war, recession, and disaster.
Aren’t we at war, now?
Hi Garth,
If house price in Vancouver reach 5 million and then retreat to 4.5 million (briefly), will that count as you being right on the house price correction you have been warning about since 2008?
Hmm Dollarama stock notched a new high today. Growth industry?
#leroy
A lot of pro-RE posters have made a lot of noise concerning an apparent ‘discount’ in the Canadian dollar. However, was there a mountain of foreign buying when the dollar was 63 cents? No. And there isn’t likely to be a bunch of foreign buying either.
Why? The foreigners simply don’t have money. In fact, foreigners want out of the Canadian economy as fast as possible, particularly in RE, as losses accelerate. As usual, the Realtors get everything backwards. Just like their claims that the low interest rate environment is the best time to buy housing (when in fact, it is amongst the worst times to buy houses, as one has to compete with hoardes of minimally capitalized credit buyers!).
“From Albertan black gold to globetrotting wealth to lucky heirs, big money is flocking to Vancouver real estate and fueling huge price increases that show no sign of stopping”, says the CEO of Sotheby’s Canada in a report released today.
See a pattern here? Four MSM news stories so far this week. And it’s only Wednesday. How can the average plebe resist such pressure to buy now, or buy never?
****************************************
See a pattern here? How can so many websites deny foreign buyers influence un-affordable prices for locals?
Well, so much for the forecasts of a rate hike by the BoC.
We live is strange times indeed.
RJ
If everyone else is on drugs, then there are a few key positions for the rest: producer, dealer, medical professional, police, lawyer, undertaker.
Barrhaven (west Ottawa) my buddy listed for 1.9M one plus year ago. He just sold for 1.5M . You tell me what you take from that lesson about the market. I have a few stories like that.
And first
“Hmmm…if we can count on three more rate drops….then lets flip more houses!!”
Why? Policy rate cuts aren’t going to push mortgage rates down, as the issue is now credit-worthiness. And houses are already dropping even in this low rate environment signalling demand exhaustion. Disagreed with Garth a ton of times about rate cuts in the past, but have always agreed that the signal that rate cuts represent, that of a weak and deflating economy, is profoundly bad for the prospects of the single largest consumer asset that a record number of Canadians own.
Great commentary Garth…..why do rates have to rise ? The popular “Just cause they do ” I hear friends say doesn’t seem to cut the proverbial cake , why can’t they stay low for the next ten years like japan?
2.5% for a 5yr?
try 2.29% for a 5yr from Butler Mortgage. Cash back to get that and a lot of other constraints. But yeah..
whoa nelly, free money everywhere.
FIRST!!
I’m seeing listings popping up that were sold less then a year ago asking 15% more then the last sale price, some of these are in smaller towns too.
The market is getting quite hot and I don’t see it stopping, low rates are here to stay for quite a while, at least 5+ more years. If and when rates do start rising it will be like watching molasses flow on a cold day, prices will be very sticky coming down which begs the question of how far will they come down, 2014, 2015, 2013 prices?
“See a pattern here? How can so many websites deny foreign buyers influence un-affordable prices for locals?”
Yeah the ‘pattern’ I see is obviously conflicted parties using their contacts in the media to drum up support for an asset class that is well beyond peak.
Great marketing perhaps, but no more truthful than those recent pick-up truck ads that try to convince the audience that girls prefer men who own trucks instead of cars.
The last sentence by Chad nailed it. “The general populace has no idea of what’s coming.”
Reminds me of the past RE busts. When they happen that is when the smart money steps in and buys 5, 10, 20, 100 properties at a time. I am small potatoes, and only buy 1 at a time. The place I live in until I can cash out when the numbers tell me to. Both fear and greed are emotions I avoid. It’s what Garth is cautioning everyone about with the sound Financial Principles he teaches us. And for free.
Perfect storm … enough to bring out some financial umbrellas
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/blogs/balance-sheet/higher-mortgage-insurance-premiums-are-another-102000714.html
Let’s cut rates in Canada by HALF a point, and kill this beast already!
Housing rates will drop buyers will get active, prices will explode, and Canada will be dead.
Naturally, you may have to wait for 5 years to smell the stink, but they have lost it. A few renters will be smirking, but the home owning brick lovers will be toast.
Where did I put those tulip bulbs? Gotta find them, send them to smokey, hear the yard might need some help.
What’s going to stop the 604 market? It proves all the nay Sayers wrong Time and time again….
The best way to make an ass of yourself at a party is to call a top in van sfh prices or god forbid post something on the internet about it haha
Govern yourself accordingly.
I thought debt-collectors were the only people that say things like this :(.
Mortgage rates have collapsed. After all, who would ever have imagined the banks would be handing out 2.5% five-year loans? – Garth
…….
Ah. Hello.
I believe it was I who had that vision, and called the 416 Spring Market perfect six months ago.
Just get over that fact that their is a real Alien amongst you.
Oh, and my call about my son getting wiped out in Forex.. It happened today.. But in all fairness he shouldn’t be trading when he’s got to take his eye of the ball for hours at a time.
He’s doing no trading for the next 3 months while attending code smith boot camp.
evidence of this disaster on my blog shortly.
You sure you dogs what to do the impossible. And trade Forex.
Inverted yield curve.
Negative growth.
Growing unemployment.
Cratering currency.
Do we really need to know more. The details don’t even matter. Even though they are terrible.
Yup, here on the fringe of Yaletown the eager buyers are back with a vengeance. Condo Sales weasels reinvigorated, pumping relentlessly………need to take a shower after an elevator ride with that lot.
Me stay quiet, might find a new landlord….
@ Mark #8 Please stop with the facts, we need every excuse we can think of to keep the party going. First timers weren’t looking at houses when we were at .63, so to them this is a real threat and they need to bid higher to compete….shhhhh
#5 Deb on 04.08.15 at 7:03 pm
The finance minister has said that deficits are acceptable only in times of war, recession, and disaster.
Aren’t we at war, now?
————————–
Wag the dog wars don’t count.
“Govern yourself accordingly.”
For so long now I have been tempted to end one of my demand letters with:
“Govern yourself like an accordion.”
Might have resulted in prompt payment. None of the other demand letters did.
Realtors report that US buyers are taking advantage of loonie losses? Maybe now my MIL’s realtor will start posting the luxury Gulf island property she’s been trying to off load for three years, on Craigslist in Seattle, Portland or San Francisco.
Being the loyal blog dog (and better than average SIL) that I am, I’ve been telling her to get her realtor to do this for months.
Maybe now we’ll get some traction!
The only housing slaughter will be for the people paid in cdn pesos.
Just in:
Listing in Wpg over 4000
Last month 1000 properties changed hands.
70% went for below asking price.
Per Global Winnneeepeg! aka Loser peg!
Hey Smokey does that mean your son just lost $67,000?
… that money could have paid for your book publishing costs…
American byers (sic)
Just started reading a random walk down wall street and the mania described in the boom/bust events sounds eerily similar to our real estate bubble. I would say people are building castles in the air, but in canada, we are building space stations!
Back in the heady days of the dotcom boom I recall a co-worker airily pronouncing that he “simply wouldn’t accept” any returns of under 20% within his stock portfolio. This was of course mere months before the roof caved in. Utter confidence goeth before bad things, usually.
“American byers enticed by the low Canadian dollar are scooping up BC properties”, says Vancouver-based Macdonald Realty.
______________________________________________If that’s true, which I very highly doubt, then Americans really are as stupid as Canadians. But I highly doublt that as well.
Why would Americans want to pay $318,000 US to obtain a Canadian property listed at $500,000 Canadian (while at the same time paying higher taxes while not being able to lock the mortgage in at a low fixed rate for 30 years or deduct the mortgage interest from their taxes), especially when they could get a similar or better property in the US for some $200,000.
Hmmm, and you still don’t believe that realtors lie?
Hi Garth
You published my email here about two months ago. I took your advice and put the foot down, did not give up under pressure from in-laws and wife to buy. I am still renting a approximately 3000 Sq ft house with finished basement for $2050 a month. House is approximately 750K at least per estimate by owner and other house experts. :)
I feel lucky to have found this blog when I came to canada 5.5 yrs ago and was seriously thinking about buying. We have saved more than 400k during all this time in canada, touchwood and thanks to my work of consulting job. My suggestion to my fellow blog dogs, rent is the only best option here in Canada and saving and keep on investing. Buy large cap etfs that give zero or minimal dividends, as soon as you have 10% appreciation sell it. Wait for 3 or 4 consecutive bad days in a market, you get those in every two months guranteed, buy same or different etfs again, only condition is they are large cap companies. Keep repeating this process and you can be golden within 10 yrs.
Now the main thing, my owner is subsidizing me and spends more money on house than I do but he has some weird sense of peace about being the owner, I wish I can live in this house for next 20 yrs :)
I will gladly pay for his mortgage.
Garth my savior, all these investing things and knowledge about etfs I learned from you and your blog. I cannot be more thankful to you, Canada is great, it gives great tax breaks to people who make twice the money compare to other households. Granted I use little bit of my innovation and donot become greedy and sell the etfs as soon as they are 10% higher, but all credit is yours and our hats off to you.
My wife has understood the secret also, she is also hooked on your blog posts and we feel something is missing on Saturday. You are fantastic and great Canadian who are giving million dollar advices for free.
Great job my fellow awesome Canadian.
sincerely
Ahmed
Buy the way I live in Mississauga, Lisgar community at 9th line and Derry area. Thankyou sire Garth
133 Don on 04.07.15 at 10:02 pm
– Also – Sooner or later you run out of retirees with money and then it hits, there are limited young people that can afford those prices in Nanaimo. Really it’s just a matter of time – traditional prices were in the 100k- 300k range.
—————-
Average houses still are in the $250-350 range. The upper end got creamed in 2008 and is only now showing some life. That is probably true of many places outside of major Canadian cities. While smaller cities will not be immune to the RE downdraft, they have less downside risk.
– You can now see deals coming up in Qualicum and Parksville as nobody can replace the vast amounts of retirees that bought in the early 2000’s. It is only a matter of time before the tap runs dry.
—————-
I suspect Qualicum is experiencing a lifestyle change problem. My parents would have loved it but I wouldn’t live there. I’m not old enough.
– But eh…living on the island is golden if you are older and can take the dampness, it is truly bone chilling (my MIL says it is colder than Toronto).
——————
I have lived in the UK and Toronto. I know what bone chilling feels like. This ain’t even close. It is the same climate as West Vancouver. I can see WV from my house.
– And the fact that it is the drug hub on the island – big problem there – especially in certain parts. I worked and lived in Nanaimo and will never live there again.
———————-
There are two separate and distinct communities in Nanaimo. If you lived/worked in South Nanaimo, I get it. Parts of it remind me of beat-up industrial Whalley. If you want drugs, that’s where to look. North Nanaimo is new, with lots of shopping and upper middle class ocean view homes. It’s like saying you wouldn’t live in North Vancouver because there are drug dealers in New Westminster.
No storm… reduce the interest rate by another 0.5%, amortization back to 40 years are next options…. we still have room for increased prices…
#7 TurnerNation on 04.08.15 at 7:07 pm
Hmm Dollarama stock notched a new high today. Growth industry?
#leroy
—————–
how are those DOL kaputs working out for ya? hope you have an expiry of NEVER to save yer buttocks…lol
I am just back to Vancouver from Vietnam to visit with my adorable almost 91 year-old Mom for 7 weeks.
I left my 28 year-old GF to take care of my just rented 5-bedroom/3-bathroom house located a block from the beach–pictures later, of house, beach and GF.
I had to bridge a flight from Hanoi-Guangshou-Vancouver, so I took my GF to Hanoi for a 3 day hiatus. She back to house and I to Guanzhou, then Vancouver.
Hotel in Hanoi was super deluxe, executive in downtown. USD60/night, including brekkie.
GF mad at me because she could have had it at “local price” of USD12/night.
Day before I depart and told GF I am due for teeth-cleaning. (Last time I had done in Vancouver: $150.)
Hanoi: USD12.
We went to the airport, I to the International; she to the domestic. She scavenged the remaining 4 cans of Heineken, explaining: “You cannot take through security; I can sell in the terminal for $1 each.
Conclusions:
1/ You’re hooped with leveraged RE in Canada; and
2/ Those people who understand the value will eat you up.
Addendum:
1/ Rent for my house is $USD300/month with Fibre-To-Thr-Home Internet; and
2/ I am 61!
#CouldBeWorse!,Or… #DogGone,GuangDong!… #DraconianNewOneDogPolicy…
[SCMP] – China’s graft busters nab naked official – swimming in his birthday suit
http://scmp.com/news/china/article/1760207/chinas-graft-busters-nab-naked-official-swimming-his-birthday-suit
#18 Realtor007 on 04.08.15 at 7:22 pm…
Not sure what city you are in, but in Kelowna and Victoria BC prices aren’t even back to 2009-2010 levels. It’s not likely that will happen for many more years.
Vancouver and Toronto are but a mirage, all the more painful on the way down.
Anyone that thinks there is enough foreign or domestic influence to support $ 5 million dollar averages in either city need to visit Phoenix (or Vegas) and see what happened to those predicting the same in 2008!
When you tell the local Phoenicians about the average prices in YVR or YYZ they just laugh, or look at you as if you are insane.
Even at a 20% bonus, the only likely effect may be increased tourism, although many AZ residents believe Canada has become a bit too conservative to visit!
Now on the other hand, we just had the fourth set of Canadian owners close escrow on our NW Phoenix block.
When comparable Canadian homes reach Phoenix prices you may see some interest in RE purchases, and this could conceivably happen given the size of the bubble in Canada!
My sister still has her house in Pembroke listed for sale.
2 price drops ($30K in total) and no offers for over a year…….she’s 15 minutes from CFB Petawawa and about 90 minutes from Ottawa……..
#294 Bottoms
“The Professional Institute of the Public Service of Canada represents some 55,000 professionals across Canada’s public sector.”
———————————————
Yes…I’m sure the research was completely unbiased.
#34 Steve French on 04.08.15 at 7:50 pm
Hey Smokey does that mean your son just lost $67,000?
… that money could have paid for your book publishing costs…
…..
What, 8% in 3 months, better than most portfolios are doing.
No worries I got the publishing costs covered.
So into this writing shit, I’m getting better everyday, far beyond my expectations.
My test subjects develop aching abdominal pains from laughing so damn hard.
Its going to mostly eBook. I’ll print about 25 hard covers and 100 paper backs.. For my loyal fans only. All signed.
Offshore Observer……..
Didn’t read your comments before I posted my first response on this thread……but allow me to add…….
Manicure and Pedicure in Calgary…..$55 with tip
Manicure and Pedicure in Rio de Janeiro…….$10 with tip
Haircut in Calgary…….$45 with tip
Haircut in Rio de Janeiro…….$10 with tip
20 Veneers and a full redo of my mouth in Calgary is $30K……..
One of the best cosmetic dentists in Rio de Janeiro will charge me $8K……..I’m getting that done in August of this year………
Should I go on ? We’re getting screwed in Canada……screwed by everyone.
Ha ha ha.
http://m.theglobeandmail.com/life/life-video/video-laneway-houses/article23849737/?service=mobile
Lane way houses. Ha ha ha. I remember the good old days when those were called garages.
@Vancity604
In one of your previous posts you mention that BC/Vancouver has no skin in the game when it comes to oil. Wrong, the proposed LNG project is directly linked.
http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/oil-price-collapse-dampening-b-c-s-goal-for-three-lng-plants-by-2020-moodys-says?__lsa=47ac-02a2#__federated=1
Cheers.
DOLLARAMA
TurnerNation on 04.08.15 at 7:07 pm
Hmm Dollarama stock notched a new high today. Growth industry?
*****************************************
There have been lots of comments about Dollarama over the months and years suggesting its success indicates a weak economy.
Not at all. It’s success is because it is quite simply one of the very best managed companies in Canada.
I mean who would have thought you could make big money selling stuff for less than a dollar? Yes I know, it’s up to $3 these days, but still.
They source well, they keep their costs low, they keep their stores clean and organized. They just do everything right.
There is no shame in saving money. Consumers go there because they offer a good assortment of products at great prices in a clean welcoming store in convenient locations.
They are a truly great Canadian success story.
I don’t know why Wal-Mart could not have blocked off a big dollar store section in their stores and beat Dollarama. Or why Zellers did not just become giant dollar stores. (Though selling their leases for $1.8 billion to the idiots at Target was a better idea) In any case, Dollarama has done fantastically and the only reason I can see is great management.
This puppy IPOed in 2009 at $7.25 split adjusted . It’s up 10 fold since the IPO
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=DOL.TO#symbol=DOL.TO;range=my
Bain Capital was a big owner but sold out at $10 to $20 split adjusted (oops). I looked at it in 2010 or 2011 and a number of times since and figured it was too expensive in relation to earnings and or book value (oops).
From yesterday #295 Vancity604, and #23 Vancity604
Tsk young grasshopper, Ad Hominem eh? Excellent counter point: RE only goes up forever! Because it just does! Van is special! No downside risk here ever! All my friends say so!
You are the Recency Bias Poster Child. Btw am not douch-ey at all. Merely trying to open your youthfully exuberant but myopic little eyes to how market cycles actually work. I have vested RE interests myself. Frankly it’s in MY best interest to pump this gasbag up to infinity, however I see it is unhealthy both to the broader economy, and to individuals caught up in the debt trap. I post to offer perspective, not in the name of self-interest, or I would be cheerleading blindly with the rest of the sheeple.
“What’s going to stop the 604 market? It proves all the nay Sayers wrong Time and time again….”
If TPTB prolong the inevitable too much longer, ultimately that means eventual political suicide. What you fail to realize is this current “frenzy” is 100% contingent on maintaining the complicit government policy. It will not be status quo forever, yes, even in 604. You are seeing short-term desperate political preservation playing out currently.
If your myopia prevents you from seeing this, so be it, then double down and go all in baby, bid that POS E. Van teardown sky high! It’ll be worth $5 million in 3 years, ya! Buy 5 “investment condos” and mortgage your future away just to pretend to play with the Big Boys on the iron-clad assumption the Rules of the Game will not be altered.
Likely changes forthcoming: RE board proprietary data hoarding, immigration, foreign investment, and taxation of RE, post-election, in the not-too-distant future. THAT alone will alter the market substantially here. Add in China’s corruption crackdown, and recent economic wobbling, etc. and the potential fallout here and that’ll just be gravy. Let’s continue this conversation in a year or 2.
It’s all sorted out now. Vancouver real estate buyers are….
Sotheby’s by way of…
http://www.vancouversun.com/life/Barbara+Yaffe+buying+expensive+homes+Vancouver/10954192/story.html
#9 Van Doom
So many web sites? Then surely you won’t have a problem naming at least one. And it certainly isn’t this one, as no one here denies foreign buyers influence the market. Heck, when I bought a condo 10 years ago, I influenced the market too.
Get a grip. The vast majority of real estate in Canada is owned by and bought by locals. Does one Chinese dude have more influence than 99 Canadian buyers? Neither should you care, unless you’re in the market for a $3M house or a $1M condo.
DELETED (Smoking Man book post)
Cut that out. — Garth
Another oops Dollarama IPOed at $17.50, that is $8.75 split adjusted.
“Finally, there’s momentum.” Garth
My Vancouver, Calgary & Toronto SFD momentum chart with March data is up:
http://www.chpc.biz/housing-price-momentum.html
The TSX Real Estate Index (green dotted plot line) continues to backtrack from a near term spike, and Calgary’s SFD housing price momentum is again setting off towards “extreme fear”.
But in Vancouver and Toronto, single family detached are still getting bid up. Here is the housing comparison chart between Vancouver and Toronto:
http://www.chpc.biz/compare-toronto–vancouver.html
The high end is where the money is flowing. Condos are on the sell.
Don`t forget Canmore`s condo boom!
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/canmores-can-do-condo-boom/article23804359/
I live in a 4 plex. Rent = $1250 (Invest close to same each month)
Nearly retired single female teacher purchased identical unit next door last March for $435k (in a bidding war). Spent another $100k + in renovations. We mowed her lawn all last summer and shovelled her half of the front walk all winter as her place was vacant during the 8 month long renovation which started in May. As soon as she found out we were long term renters she has not acknowledged us. She can mow her own lawn this summer :)
Any updates on Canmore Garth?
Further to pre. post, also continued CMHC rule tightening will put further pressure on high ratio borrowers. (Arguably the majority of local workers – buyers).
Incidentally, as Van locals, with locally-earned incomes, feel the pinch of tightened CMHC policy changes while at the same time witnessing getting priced out of their home city by continued unfettered international access to local real estate, there will continue to be increased public pressure to address the situation at all government levels, eventually resulting in political action.
It simply reaches a tipping point where it behooves the self-interested govn’t of the day to act accordingly to please the majority and stay in power. This is already occurring, policy will follow adept. Political preservation 101.
@9 Van Doom-
It ain’t HAM driving up Van house prices buddy. It’s all of us gov’t employees laundering our “stolen” dollars.
LOLZZZZZZZZZZZ.
You know the top of the market is in when an ex-Toronto real estate agent hits the Victoria house blog pumping like a horn dog in heat making statements like “buy now before you’re priced out forever” along with guaranteed 15% price increases within a year. Pathetic yet predictable.
#23 Vancity604
This blog has been calling it for like 6 years. Still waiting in yvr.
#51 Keith in Calgary on 04.08.15 at 8:39 pm
Offshore Observer……..
Didn’t read your comments before I posted my first response on this thread……but allow me to add…….
Manicure and Pedicure in Calgary…..$55 with tip
Manicure and Pedicure in Rio de Janeiro…….$10 with tip
Haircut in Calgary…….$45 with tip
Haircut in Rio de Janeiro…….$10 with tip
20 Veneers and a full redo of my mouth in Calgary is $30K……..
One of the best cosmetic dentists in Rio de Janeiro will charge me $8K……..I’m getting that done in August of this year………
Should I go on ? We’re getting screwed in Canada……screwed by everyone.
Alberta Brother:
My GF does the mani-pedicure at her leisure. [She doesn’t trust any of the other women to do that to me.]
Maybe, if Garth allows, I’ll post pix of my new house, GF and new motorbike….
#50 Smoking Man
So you’re giving 125 people free, signed toilet paper?
Saw 20 something hipster on the National tonight buying a $230K condo using bank of mom and dad. Throwing money away on rent he says. Doesn’t feel he’s taking a handout. Paying it forward he says. Lol
Buy real estate in the USA for passive income.Canada is just for speculating.Toronto,Vancouver and Victoria probably 2 or 3 more years of price increases.God willing I’ll live in Puerto Vallarta for 7 months and come back to Victoria for 5 months I can live comfortably for $800 cad in PV.Canada is like Japan or Singapore.
Garth.. don’t recall if you covered it in a previous blog, but have a question regarding recent news that temporary foreign workers who have been in Canada 4 years must return home as well as significant numbers of foreign students who may have missed the deadline to have their applications for residency reviewed. If they applied for and were approved for mortgages under CMHC or Genworth programs (Newcomers to Canada), what might the impact be on those homes being listed/hitting the marketplace?
Have CMHC, etc ever released statistics on the numbers in their portfolios? Any blog dogs know?
MetroGoldwynMayer’s “Caught In The Realtor Web” coming to a theatre near you!
A dark and stormy night. The camera dollies quickly thru an endless forest of flapping ForSale signs. Lightning flash. Now we see Mr.&Mrs. Public listlessly languishing in their living room. They’re watching TheNational. Anchor Knowitall Nash says “This afternoon our esteemed Prime Poodle announced . . . ” and there appears on the flat screen a dog wearing an 18th century wig; it yaps on and on.
Mrs. Public lost in her own thoughts says, “You know, dear, I’m not sure we can make ends meet this month.” But Joe has fallen asleep and doesn’t hear her.
He wakes up when TheNational shows Greece sliding into the ocean – all those people screaming. He turns to the Mrs to ask what’s goin’ on – but she’s left, gone to the kitchen to see if there’s any day old bread left for the kids’ breakfast tomorrow. Close-up shows her quietly weeping as she scans the desolate cupboards.
Another lightning flash. Hits the front yard pole proudly flapping the Maple Leaf flag. Flag goes up in flames. But no-one notices. Joe has fallen asleep again, and the Mrs is still quietly weeping.
Sunrise. Ding dong. “Early bird gets the worm!” chirps Perfect Sarah their realtress (played by Rosie O’ Donnell) “We have an offer!!!”
TBC
American buyers scooping up Vancouver properties? Uh, no. Show me. So, I vetted this with nearly every American friend, banker, realtor, and preacher I know. In short, nearly everyone laughed their asses off. I’m not kidding. One even took it so far to say, “Now why the f*ck would we be so stupid to do that? Everyone knows they’re in a bubble and at a peak for that matter! We’ve all played this game and didn’t like the score in the end. Besides, its Canada. Only an idiot would buy there to get less than what we have right here.” I completely agreed. Its another pathetic and unfounded marketing ploy that Canadian developers are not being held accountable to show proof in their claim. Like I’ve been saying, when regulations come to fruition in Canada to stop this disgusting behavior is when people will start to understand how much they’ve been drinking the Kool-Aid.
[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/04/08/perfect-storm-3/ […]
#55 Vanecdotal on 04.08.15 at 8:45 pm
Haha see… a condescending douche as well, you use big words for a surrey resident! Thanks for regurgitating Garth’s writing style and references , so your saying the black swan will be a government intervention to stem the out of control housing market and maintain voter favor!? Lol ur hilarious man say hi to our cousin Lou Anne for me.
#51 Keith,
Cost of 24/7 personal security in Rio?
#53 Marco on 04.08.15 at 8:41 pm
@Vancity604
In one of your previous posts you mention that BC/Vancouver has no skin in the game when it comes to oil. Wrong, the proposed LNG project is directly linked.
————-
How do LNG plants that never existed result in vancouver layoffs? Thanks for that bud but I never said no skin I said very little. I don’t know how reiterate vancouver is not fort Mac
“American byers enticed by the low Canadian dollar are scooping up BC properties”, says Vancouver-based Macdonald Realty.”
Thank you MacDonald Realty, for my laugh of the day.
I suppose these same people would purchase a ticking time-bomb, as long as it was priced in the “low Canadian dollar”.
Lowering rates will not help. It does not stimulate anything except possibly for a short period of time as the historic debt bubble gasps one last time. All this does is temporarily increase GDP and asset prices and leave society with even greater levels of mostly unproductive debt.
It also makes housing unnecessarily expensive and inflates the governments tax revenues for a brief time.
Since any debt fuelled purchases merely pull forward demand, any lucky increase in consumption and speculation using the artificially cheap debt will merely set the stage for a greater bust once tend dust settles.
Lowering interest rates destroys interest income and screws up capital allocation.
Historic debt bubbles are ALWAYS followed by historic collapses. We will look back at these manipulations by the BofC and the govt (CMHC anyone ?) and scream at how gullible we were to think these junk economic policies would help the average person.
These policies are designed to keep the neoliberal economic / debt enslavement system going for the establishment. No, not a conspiracy. Just a corrupt and pathetic economic system that inevitably ends in financial tragedy and debacles.
JO
well I told you many times rates will go close to 1% and banks still be profitable
talk to some CEOs….
I might become one, one day….
how many new bank application in pipeline at the federal approval institution? 150 or more now..
hahaha
1% for 5 years mortgages will be coming, should the shit hit the fan in kanata
The oil thing goes deep…
Caterpillar to lay off 250 employees in Lafayette, Indiana
Caterpillar will lay off 50 full time production employees and 200 agency workers at its plant in Lafayette, Indiana between now and June. The layoffs are due to decreasing engine orders that support the oil and gas industry. The Lafayette plant was opened in 1982 and is Caterpillar’s main source for medium-speed diesel engines. Currently the plant employs roughly 1,000 people. [Construction Equipment, 06 April 2015]
There is nothing unusual in lust for house.
Exists everywhere in the whole world – regardless of time and cultures in human history.
What’s screwed up is the socio-economic structure that manipulates markets, prices, etc. in a way that this “lust” creates self-imposed slavery.
#58 Garth Please? on 04.08.15 at 8:53 pm
DELETED (Smoking Man book post)
Cut that out. — Garth
…..
Its ironic, years ago when I said I was writing a book, it was a bold faced lie.
I went through some sort of paranoid state. The book writing was cover, I started imagining that everyone at the tax farm knew I was Smoking Man..I use to write crazy outrageous shit.
Fearing that I was found out, I needed cover. So I re branded as a wacky amature wana be fiction writer. Crazy fiction writers get slack, some are loved in some cases. Crazy people don’t have that luxury.
It was a perfect plan, I’m a raging alcoholic on a timer, 9 to midnight is booze time. When I retired a few years ago, I was a lush every waking moment. Could not afford to lose the tax farm gig. It keeps me under control.
I don’t know what happend, I was in Vegas and started writing chapter one as a joke.
Sat on it for a few months, went to my pals movie preview in the USA, highly respected director. And an early Apple Shareholder.
I emailed to him, blew him away, such words of encouragement, really got me thinking. I reluctantly painfully carried on. Then boom I’m hooked on it..and now I’m doing it for real.
The irony, I will loath anyone who buys or reads my book, I’m on the train looking at people, study there every move, trying to guess there life story’s.
What are they doing, reading someone else story. Rather than write thier oun story…
But that’s how my entire life rolls, no plan, no ambition , just fall into things that amazingly work out..
Kind of like Forest Gump…
Unreal..
And as far as pumping a book here, blog dogs will get a promo code, ebook will be free.
I promise.. Hell probably at most 50 fans…
Where I make the big loot, smoking man haters buy the paper version just to burn it.
Sorry, wasting time, back to the book.
#51 Keith in Calgary on 04.08.15 at 8:39 pm
Offshore Observer……..
One of the best cosmetic dentists in Rio de Janeiro will charge me $8K……..I’m getting that done in August of this year………
————————————————————
Just be careful. My wife is a CDA and she says she assists in repairing a lot of “off shore” dentistry.
1% Mortgages?
Ozy Says:
1% for 5 years mortgages will be coming, should the shit hit the fan in Kanata
***************************************
That could happen, as long as banks can bring in deposits at around minus 2% locked in for five years.
There are some negative rates around the world now, but I doubt that Canadian banks will attract much money at minus 2%, ever.
I believe it is government debt and very solid corporate debt that went negative. Not sure that banks can charge for deposits, though I do recall something about Mellon Bank doing that last year.
Doubt this could happen. If it did Lillooet homes will be one million as well. Vancouver , maybe $3 million. Well, it’s all entertainment.
Remember a year ago when I said that Canadian interest rates were going to zero? Everyone said I was LOONEY ??
Well, here’s the news, rates in Canada really are heading to zero:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-06/fidelity-s-wolf-says-zero-rate-inescapable-in-oil-shocked-canada
My bet is that rates will go beyond zero and into NEGATIVE territory, with the government actually creating federal programs that is PAY CONSUMERS TO BUY HOUSES.
Yup, that’s right, the government will PAY YOU $$$ if you buy another new house. Coming in about 2 years from now.
Thus the concentration of new worth into a single asset increases, at the same time total leverage bloats further.
the Bank of Canada dropped interest rates which had the effect of maintaining real estate values but it has come at the cost of the Canadian dollar. You can only do this so many times.
vancity604: why do rates have to rise ?
because we have to save
Realtor007: The market is getting quite hot and I don’t see it stopping, low rates are here to stay for quite a while, at least 5+ more years.
Realtor007 you give no clue where you are. Could be Winnipeg.
Obvious Truth: Inverted yield curve.
Negative growth.
Michel Shedlock says that Canada is now in a recession. He cites an inverted yield curve and negative growth as evidence.
OffshoreObserver: people who understand value will eat you up
that got my attention
Hopelessly Devoted: A nearly retired single female teacher purchased an identical unit next door last March for $435k. She spent another $100k + in renovations. We mowed her lawn and shoveled her front walk as her place was vacant during the 8 month long renovation which started in May. As soon as she found out we were renters she has not acknowledged us. She can mow her own lawn
pretty funny. I’d like to buy her a cake as a house warming gift which you could present to her. (Garth say the word and I’ll send you the money through PayPal).
@Vancity604
Thank you for pointing out to me that Vancouver is not Fort Mac.
What I was trying to point out to you is that the LNG project is, or was? to be a strong economic driver in BC. You see for house prices to be so inflated like Vancouver, one really needs an economy to back it up in the long run. Not just people selling houses to one another. Don’t forget the average family income in Van is hovering around 70,000. Go figure. These prices are simply unsustainable in the long run.
Cheers.
Spoke to a realtor here in Victoria today about a house for sale. He described it as a hot market. Funny, all the houses in the area in the same price range have been for sale for months. One of us is missing something, I think.
#254 Setting the Record Straight on 04.08.15 at 12:34 pm
@223
“__________________________________________
Sorry but your logic is flawed. If you challenge someone to a boxing match, you can’t complain when he hits you.
If you don’t like the rules of the game, then you don’t play. If you play you have no right to complain about the outcome, you have agreed to the rules.
Its those who don’t vote who have the moral high ground when it comes to objecting.
To borrow a line, the rule is thou shall not steal. Its not thou shall not steal except by majority vote.”
———————————————————–
Sorry, but your metaphor is wrong. Boxing is not a civic duty. Very few activities are equivalent to the role of voting in a democracy. Voting, whether you like to or not, is required by citizens (not all, but at least 50%). It conveys “Legitimacy” in governance. If too many people decide not to vote, and are entirely disengaged, then it ceases to be a legitimate democracy, and slowly descends into faux democracies (Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Pakistan to name a few).
Those who don’t vote have zero “moral high ground”. They are complacent in the abuses of power by governments as much as the person who votes for the abusing party.
To quote Edmund Burke: “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men (and women) to do nothing”.
– You can now see deals coming up in Qualicum and Parksville as nobody can replace the vast amounts of retirees that bought in the early 2000’s. It is only a matter of time before the tap runs dry.
The market in Parksville and Qualicum is very busy right now, even multiple offers (small ones) The new builds like Cedar Ridge feature homes that were $439k to $479k last year are now $519,000 and are selling. A lot of the places in Qualicum were built in the early 1990’s and need a lot of updating.
There is a new generation arriving here with BMW’s, Corvettes, Harley’s and hot rods and all seem glad to be here…Seems a lot busier, certainly is a lot noisier (HDs)
#55 Vanecdotal
Even if federal policy or other extraneous factors result in a Canadian housing adjustment that doesn’t necessarily mean Vancouver RE prices will be impacted. Did every single US city experience a decline in housing prices during the financial crisis? The fact is no one has a crystal ball and can say anything for sure, so to smugly refute anothers comment (while entertaining and half the fun of this comments section) is pointless. Indicators have been pointing to a bubble burst for how long now? Even if/when it does happen in YVR how can one say “I told you so! I’m smart you’re dumb!” when a prediction takes two decades to come to fruition. Every time some event that will cause the bubble burst (like you listed) comes and goes,yet prices continue to rise.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day. “I expect you’re young” “Young grasshopper” What does that have to do with anything? Are you trying to project some sort of superiority because you’ve simply existed on this earth for an extended period of time?
#255 Ralph Cramdown on 04.08.15 at 12:37 pm
“So even for the exact same TFSA with the same investments, the rich guy benefits much more. Add that to the benefits of long term compounding, which I outlined in #24, both because the rich have funds to start taking advantage of tax sheltering earlier AND because they live longer, and it’s advantage rich guy all the way.”
Food for thought:
Why should savings be taxed so many different ways and over some many different time periods (i.e. on selling every couple years)? If pension funds are able to invest and reap capital gains tax-free, why shouldn’t an individual who’s attempting to create a pension for themselves..?
63 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.08.15 at 9:02 pm
@9 Van Doom-
It ain’t HAM driving up Van house prices buddy. It’s all of us gov’t employees laundering our “stolen” dollars.
*****************************************
I’m glad you find it so funny. I hope you find it equally funny in a few years when the Govt is forced to fire 10s of thousands of your brethren en masse when it is publicly acknowledged that they are bankrupting the country.
41 Andrew Woburn on 04.08.15 at 8:12 pm
There are two separate and distinct communities in Nanaimo. If you lived/worked in South Nanaimo, I get it. Parts of it remind me of beat-up industrial Whalley. If you want drugs, that’s where to look. North Nanaimo is new, with lots of shopping and upper middle class ocean view homes. It’s like saying you wouldn’t live in North Vancouver because there are drug dealers in New Westminster.
******************************
Sorry Andrew didn’t mean to burst your bubble…but I did live in North Nanaimo. The house next to us and the one across the street were involved with the Red Scorpions who migrated from Van to expand their operations. They wouldn’t be caught living in South Nanaimo as they are the ones with money. Nanaimo doesn’t have the jobs/income to support the higher prices (other than the recent retirement windfall)
The loss of jobs in the Oil Patch (fly in / fly outs) is just in its infancy and has yet to ripple through Nanaimo. Retirees cannot prop up the market forever.
Yes you were lucky/smart selling in Van at a premium. But the boomers with money are running out. Who will prop up the market in the future without significant wage gains / jobs. There are a lot of single widowers living in houses in the qualicum beach area that I know off when I visit family. It is only a matter of time, whole sub divisions on a mountain side (Qualicum River Village) catering to the older generation, pricey 400k up to 1 million – 15 km from any stores. Who exactly will replace them, people started to move there in the early 2000’s – now things are getting quiet.
I am just being realistic, the fly in and outs were making big coin in Alberta and I am sure they bought in the good parts of Nanaimo also. The shit has yet to hit the fan. Sell and move to Nanoose – it has always been a higher end area. You can also get a view of West Van.
A good indicator is the overflow parking lots at Nanaimo Airport. The same is happening all the way up and down the island. Massive amounts of resumes with Alberta experience flooding companies. Victoria Ship Yards, WFP mill (Duke Point) etc. etc.
I wish you well though. I mean no harm just want a realistic assessment and relying on the local corporate newspaper is not the way to go.
86 Waterloo Resident on 04.08.15 at 10:09 pm
Remember a year ago when I said that Canadian interest rates were going to zero? Everyone said I was LOONEY ??
Well, here’s the news, rates in Canada really are heading to zero:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-06/fidelity-s-wolf-says-zero-rate-inescapable-in-oil-shocked-canada
My bet is that rates will go beyond zero and into NEGATIVE territory, with the government actually creating federal programs that is PAY CONSUMERS TO BUY HOUSES.
Yup, that’s right, the government will PAY YOU $$$ if you buy another new house. Coming in about 2 years from now
****************************
Hopefully people can pay off their large mortgages before rates rise again or jobs losses are felt. People are over extended now and a recessionary environment is not the best time to overindulge.
I see that young hotshot energy fund managers like Eric Nuttall and Genevieve Roch-Decter have “new mandates” to invest in small caps and emerging markets now.
Shell Kitimat LNG Project will never happen, not at $40 billion anyhow.
I saw some news today that makes me very sure that the Shell Kitimat LNG will never happen.
The news was that Shell is buying BG the former British gas for $80 billion. This is apparently the second largest oil and gas merger ever.
I believe Warren’s Buffett’s largest acquisition was Burlington Northern at about $25 billion.
So $80 billion is a massive amount of money, clearly.
Meanwhile it was sated that the Shell Kitimat LNG project would cost as much as $40 billion. Really? Can we expect an LNG project in Kitimat to happen at an amoun that is 50% as large as the this HUGE oil company merger, the second largest in history.
Is that $40 billion a typo? Should it be $4 billion?
Well Google shows it from last November
http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/shell-says-lng-project-in-b-c-to-cost-up-to-40-billion-when-complete?__lsa=fbd5-e3ce
My conclusion just based on these figures: There is no possible way on this earth that Shell and its partners will spend anything close to $40 billion in Kitimat. It simply will not happen. It’s laughable on its face.
I would not be buying a house in Kitimat in expectation that this project will go ahead.
Van city …what a joke…. Must be tough getting good help these days… Called their advertising “dept” to sell them ad space to sell more mortgages… She was too busy to talk It sounded like she busy wishing dishes or something lol I could tinkling and water running …she saying I gotta go …. It’s gonna overflow lol
#73 – The American. Welcome back. I love reading your comments. Right on!!
#298 of yesterday’s – Shawn Allen on 04.08.15 at 6.40 pm
“……Be gone with the exemption …..a good idea.
Is there also an exemption for lobster licences?”
I have tried to apply for a lobster licence here, on the Wet Coast. But they kept asking me to show them my catch, from local waters, and from the wild. So far, no such luck.
I won’t go into a lot of details, but I suggest you research into the following.
Prior to May 1997, U S taxpayers have to pay capital gains tax on their Principal Residences unless they “traded up”. From May 9, 1997 onwards, a married couple filing jointly is allowed $500.000 capital gains tax free. There are conditions to qualify for the exemption, such as the ownership must be at least for an aggregate of two years out of five, before the sale.
This, in my mind, was turning point for US residential RE market.
After the tech bubble’s burst, plus the tragic event of 9-11, the US Fed lowered the Fed fund rates. All interest rates, declined.
By the years 2003/2004 every realtor in the States were telling RE buyers how to take advantage of the “new” capital gains exemption rules and tried to own TWO properties, and aimed for tax exempted gains for both properties.
People were all leaping in.
By 2005/2006 the US RE bubble was huge.
As often is the case, government economic policies do create economic distortions.
By the way, by 2009 the US Government did tighten the rules governing these exemptions. The two dwellings exemptions are no longer so easy to circumvent.
#12 Long reader rare poster on 04.08.15 at 7:16 pm
Yep!
Ottawa is a heap! Inventory will cross 11k this spring? Maybe?
All around me houses taken off the market in the fall are back up for sale.
House across from me had hipsters lined up… No bids as it still sits 150-160k above reality.
4 weeks on market and counting… Relist soon… New price?
Ottawa will get creamed as jobless rate hovers at 7.25%
#88 Marco on 04.08.15 at 10:14 pm
@Vancity604
Thank you for pointing out to me that Vancouver is not Fort Mac.
What I was trying to point out to you is that the LNG project is, or was? to be a strong economic driver in BC. You see for house prices to be so inflated like Vancouver, one really needs an economy to back it up in the long run. Not just people selling houses to one another. Don’t forget the average family income in Van is hovering around 70,000. Go figure. These prices are simply unsustainable in the long run.
Cheers.
—————
Ok Marco fair enough I agree, you need strong local wages to sustain a healthy market. Van detached from fundamentals about a decade ago , it’s supply and demand. And the demand has been and continues to be huge, but it’s not disappointed pipe fitters that were hoping to buy a 604 house with their LNG paychecks keeping this freight train moving ,,,, you and I both know what it is and it’s a lot bigger than just canadian economics and it’s not going to stop
check out page 11 of the Fraser Valley stats from March
http://www.fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package%20201503.pdf
looks like a perfect hockeystick and liftoff into the stratosphere…
perfect time to buy, buy, buy or be priced out forever!
moi sold into the frenzy…. #winning!
rule #1
those who exit first exit best
even if there are further rate cuts… the frenzy will fizzle quickly now due to buyers exhaustion
listings are down by the way.. people have no reason to sell and they’re holding out for more paper value
MTVmademedoit: Did every single US city experience a decline in housing prices during the financial crisis?
no Denver and Dallas didn’t
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/01/23/business/case-shiller-slider.html?ref=business#city/SF
there is a depth and breadth of information that is available on the US decline. Readily available.
#292 The American on 04.08.15 at 6:01 pm
“At #263: Holy Crap Where’s The Tylenol, I’m not sure what they’re spewing on the government-owned news channels in Canada to have everyone so snowed, but as for renewable water supplies go, Canada has less than a 10% variance more than the U.S.”
Not about “renewable” fresh water, which is from the precipitation cycle. It’s about water in lakes and glaciers that makes Canada different from the US. You guys have a big fat, ugly desert. We have a big fat, ugly tundra with snow on top of it for a significant portion of the year. And we have more lakes than the US, a lot more… Approximately 1.2 million square kilometres of them.
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/16-201-x/2010000/t230-eng.htm
Go look at a topography map with all the lakes… It’s crazy how many lakes Canada has.
Why does the military (us/we,tax layers)?, pay for property costs on military?
I didn’t hear expat in the equation where it might be valid.
“As I said…”
1 good to 10 bad calls ratio. Same as all doomers.
“The general populace has no idea of what’s coming.”
Chad thinks he’s clairvoyant.
“strongly concerned about making ends meet, month-to-month.”
Factless statement. Young adults will simply learn to cut back on their expenses.
Accept that there’s no job losses coming to Ontario. Housing is in demand, not bank stocks.
Should Canada or Alberta Join OPEC?
I have never heard the idea of joining the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, but why not?
Based on the name Canada appears to qualify.
Back in the early 70’s with the first oil price shock, OPEC was the enemy of North America (though perhaps not of Alberta and Texas).
But these days are we not friends with Saudi Arabia?
Yes, it may be time to join OPEC.
If Canada does not want in then maybe Alberta can get in though it is not a country.
Who is in OPEC?
In 2014 OPEC comprised twelve members: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.
Hmm seems like a mix of western-friendly counties and some bad apples. Maybe we could join on condition that the bad guys get kicked out.
We’d probably need the U.S. in there two.
Maybe the problem is that our oil industry is not nationalized like in those countries and that may be the reason it makes no sense to join.
Yeah I know cartels are bad but apparently we like the Potash one…
I tune Lisa laflem out. She’s full of shit anyway.
Apperantly my liver is acting up, it talks to me, he’s pissed. Says your working me to hard, I want a raise, or a reduction in work load.
I say “shut the fk up, you get a day off once every two months you prick. This isn’t Greece.
Get back to work.”
Slaves is all I’m saying..
Unappreciative useless eaters.
The fact of the matter is besides Vancouver, the rest of Canada is a wintery armpit 6-8 months of the year; not that attractive to newcomers. Van will always have high demand for housing because it is penned in on 3 sides, with a river on the fourth, separating it from the godless frontier known as Surrey. No where to go now but up.
#91 Oceanside on 04.08.15 at 10:33 pm…
“…certainly is a lot noisier (HDs)…”
Much like Kelowna that’s usually HAM (not Hot Asian Money).
You can figure out what HA also stands for!
Does the number 81 come to mind?
“Shell Kitimat LNG Project will never happen, not at $40 billion anyhow.”
Agreed. Have you ever looked at some of the data for energy losses associated with natural gas liquefaction and evaporation? The numbers are basically out of this world.
I am just being realistic, the fly in and outs were making big coin in Alberta and I am sure they bought in the good parts of Nanaimo also.
Just like with the alleged “foreigners” buying in Vancouver, be careful here. The number of fly-in, fly-out’ers simply isn’t that large relative to the population base that has kept RE prices so elevated in, among other places, Nanaimo. And really, the money in Fort McMurray isn’t that extreme. Most people on contract talk their gross, not their net (hotel rooms, meals, vehicles, crack, etc. are huge overheads!). Hourly compensation isn’t dramatically different for Fort McMurray tradespeople as it is across Canada (the key difference is that, until the crash, basically unlimited hours were available!). And if you refer to the APEGA survey for professional engineering compensation, there actually is no premium to working in Fort McMurray versus working in Calgary.
I’ll take a copy of your book Smokey, pencil me down!
On another note stubborn folks likely resist budging an ego shattering cent on their home sales likely due to reverse mortgages. Boomers with equity anyway.
#76 Lee…….
Cost of personal security in Rio de Janeiro…..??
Zero.
I own property in Copacabana, am married to a Carioca, and have been there over 35 times in the last 14 years……more Canadians die in Mexico on vacation than anywhere else in the world………but I’ll go anywhere in Rio without fear, and have.
#84 Panhead……
I am not worried about that at all. Even my local dentist tried the same scare tactic on me, saying medical standards around the world were not as good as Canada, blah, blah, blah…….when I told him my wife was a Brasilian educated physiotherapist who moved here, got accredited immediately, was recruited for her unique skills, and makes over $100K a year as a specialist he turned red and shut up.
“By now or be priced out forever”…………and other lies.
“Van will always have high demand for housing “
Then rents should be rising to reflect such ‘high demand’. Yet as we see, rent growth in Vancouver over the long term has basically been roughly at the rate of inflation, with no recent acceleration. But what has accelerated, quite dramatically in Vancouver is the level of indebtedness as the city is caught up in a (now-deflating) speculative bubble in real estate.
In various other posts here, I calculated a P/E of Canadian RE of around 35. That is, people are paying 35X net after-tax imputed rent for Canadian residential real estate. However, in Vancouver, the P/E ratio is actually so high that it almost can’t even be meaningfully calculated. Landlords are subsidizing renters in many cases directly on an operating basis and are receiving practically nothing to cover depreciation. If this isn’t proof of a bubble, then I don’t know what is!
#72 Nagraj
Rosie O’Donnell – really.
I’m giving you a pass on that one. I will not judge.
But I would cast Denise Richards.
FWIW……even Rio de Janeiro is not immune to the worldwide property bubble which was driven by aggressive realtors and politicians, eager to cash in and promote the myth of financial security.
RE down there has gone up 4-500 % in the last 10 years, and this includes our condo. Thing is, if you sell you pay a 30% capital gains tax on the net gain……..
Their bubble was driven by the leftist PT government trying to bring RE ownership to the masses with 35 year amortizations and central bank funded low down payment mortgages. Sound familiar ?
After the 2008 GFC, when the Canadian dollar soared against the US greenback & we not only were at par but above it, a number of Canadians took advantage of the house market meltdown in the USA to purchase properties at fire sale pricing. Even now, a LOT of US housing is far less expensive than Canadian housing, even with a fat 20% premium due to the loonie sinking like a rock against the greenback. So I don’t quite understand why Americans with spare cash would be eager to scoop up stuff in Vancouver, when they can get better deals in their own country & better weather to boot. Methinks I smell a realtor conspiracy trying to convince the public that buying is worth it, despite insanely high prices, unsustainable debt levels even with help from Mom/Dad & the fact that a lot of these properties are not exactly in what would be considered pristine condition. Many are in fact essentially strip to the studs redox or outright tear downs, because the former owners either could not or would not do more than the most basic maintenance, if that.
I don’t include the high end auction properties in that assessment, as people who can spend multi-millions on estate properties will not bid on said properties unless they are in showroom ready condition. So perhaps the hype about those properties has some basis in truth.
Just signed papers for brand new camaro, 8% below invoice price.
You do get good deals if you strike when your enemy is the weakest.
Wanted to share this so that blog dogs know how despatate dealers are here in calgary.
#71 the Jaguar on 04.08.15 at 9:31 pm
“Have CMHC, etc ever released statistics on the numbers in their portfolios? Any blog dogs know?”
Yup. here it is:
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=CMHC+statistics
Langley BC Canada, Walnut Grove area…
Last three homes sold all to bidding wars. 15-30k more then asking.
I got house horny over the week end, saw a nice place, wife loved it, second kid on way for us so I drove by and looked at it. 7 days on market SOLD sign on realtor street board.
Went home was thankful it was Sunday and Garth had another blog post up.
The place was listed for 769 sold for 807k
Scared straight! Shitty town home living a guess for a few more years.
Real Estate is now a time bomb, as is the Canadian economy. Your guess is good as mine which of these timeless wonders will collapse first.
RE needs a bit of house cleaning, and funneling to a healthy forecast.
The present homes prices are quite hilarious…….
#85 Shawn Allen
Don’t we already have negative deposit rates in Canada?
They pay at most, what 0.5 to 1% and then take fees anywhere from $5-$15 a month.
At $5/mo in fees you need at least $6000 in that account just to break even. No wait, i didn’t factor in the interest income tax you have to pay. So slightly more.
…And nevermind the $1-$3 withdrawal fees at ATM’s. This only compounds the problem.
The solution is simple: Own the banks.
“Vancouver real estate is a high speed train, and if you don’t get on it, you are going to get left behind.”
Advice of Johanna Connolly, editor of Real Estate Weekly
Guess Johanna is not a blog dog here?
@109
Hmm seems like a mix of western-friendly counties and some bad apples. Maybe we could join on condition that the bad guys get kicked out.
*************
sorry they would never kick out Saudi Arabia..
#92 MTVmademedoit
“I expect you’re young” “Young grasshopper” What does that have to do with anything? Are you trying to project some sort of superiority because you’ve simply existed on this earth for an extended period of time? ”
Not my intent at all. We’re all here to learn and exchange ideas, and you’re right, I was extremely condescending to the OP in direct response to their juvenile ad hominem attack when I questioned their perspective.
When the exchange remains respectable, there’s no condescension. When it goes all Ad Hominem, decorum sometimes goes out the window.
As for the US housing correction, I recall there were only a small handful of cities that remained relatively unscathed, ones that had not strayed significantly from price vs. income fundamentals prior to the popping. Vancouver does not fit that criteria.
#111 – In past RE declines in the Lower Mainland Vancouver was not spared nor will it be this time no matter how much some bloggers on here want to think Van is different.
“In short, most people you know are on drugs. Govern yourself accordingly.”
Got that right. Hard to walk along the seawall here in Vancouver for more than a few minutes without the smell of pot filling the air. Pretty sad that the natural beauty of the mountains, ocean, flowers, and lately beautiful sunshine aren’t enough of a high.
This was the conversation on Easter Sunday:
One mother:” My boy just put a deposit down to buy a condo in Milton that will be ready in 2017. He is so smart. Prices can only go up. ”
Another mom replies:” Yes. Real estate is a great investment. You can never lose.”
I am pulling out my hair in the meantime listening to this.
I do believe that most Canadians are quite ignorant.
Even when I suggest they read this blog, so that they can learn something , they refuse.
Yeah, yeah they say and look up in the air.
I hear people talking about real estate at work. “Buy, buy, you can’t lose. ” or ” congratulations on purchasing your new home. How exciting.” Or we just “bought a condo for our son who is at the Uof T so he does not have to commute. Then when he finishes, we can sell it for a profit.” How about” i got some money from an insurance settlement regarding a car accident where my young daughter was injured. I bought it as an investment for her future. It’s in the distillary district. We can’t lose.”
What do I know? After all real estate keeps climbing in Toronto.
My question is: how can I make money from the ignorance of the average Canadian. Can I short the market?
#75 Vancity604
“Haha see… a condescending douche as well, you use big words for a surrey resident! Thanks for regurgitating Garth’s writing style and references , so your saying the black swan will be a government intervention to stem the out of control housing market and maintain voter favor!? Lol ur hilarious man say hi to our cousin Lou Anne for me.”
Yet more ad hominem, intelligent debate is clearly not your forté. Assumptions neither since I’m a born & bred Vancouverite, this is how I happen to write, I agree with GT on many points, yet disagree on others. Bought in Surrey once Van detached from fundamentals, and yet still have all my teeth and didn’t have to marry my cousin to close.
Some of the highest household incomes in Canada (per Census data) are out here in the desirable areas btw, but by all means keep assuming. It’s like saying all of Van is just like the DTES.
Scroll on…
Far off topic here Dingbat, but the military pays almost all of the moving expenses and small losses on a property for a relocation. This isn’t an entitlement, the member is promoted or posted to a new location and didn’t choose to move on their own. Quite the same circumstances during an employment move with a large corporation, when staying with the company.
#109 Shawn Allen
Should Canada or Alberta join OPEC?
The Saudi oil minister made a comment yesterday that they may “improve prices” only if producers outside of OPEC joined the effort. As it stands now they are not going to cut production in fact it may increase.
Okay, enough detail already!
Swoop up to 50,000 feet. What do you see?
A world where it costs the lender money to lend money, over 10 years (Swiss Central Bank yesterday).
Do you see the problem now?
Morning Garth
Unlike some of your posters and most Cdn RE agents I read international financial news most days including the Economist. Having traveled and worked in the Far East I know that the Economist is their financial bible.
This non- Canadian media says two things about Canada right now to its wealthy international readers.
1. Canadian RE is vastly over-priced and get out now.
2. The Cdn dollar is only about half way through its fall so get out now.
Therefore I see no reason whatsoever for smart international money to be buying old bungalows in TO or empty lots in Vancouver. They may be on sale now but will be in the bargain basement in 6 months in relation to other world currencies.
Smart people do not catch falling knives.
If the BOC decides on lowering rates further, why don’t they just increase the down payments needed to buy a house, or stop people raiding their RRSP’s (Home Buyer’s Plan)?
Your right the weather in most of canada is miserable 6-8 months of the year, but dampcover i can think of a lot of much better places to plop down a million dollars and get something i wouldn’t be afraid to set foot in! I lived there north van most of July standing outside it was so damp and cold could see my breath said screw this and moved to alberta! If you think its different there you are dellusional it will crash just like everywhere else if not worse!
Fear loves company. Same doom, a few different people, most of the same. Have fun. Out here, the world keeps spinning.
#135 jane 24 — “Therefore I see no reason whatsoever for smart international money to be buying old bungalows in TO or empty lots in Vancouver.”
I don’t know that anyone claimed the international money was smart, though it is of course relative. A 30% haircut looks pretty good compared to having all your money confiscated and being jailed for corruption.
True story: A woman recently walked into a bank in Spuzzum* but spoke little english, only german*. Luckily, one of the staff speaks german. She wants a history of her bank account, which has almost a million in it. For the last five years, the only transactions have been the monthly withdrawal of the $13,000 mortgage payment. The good staff did what they were trained to do, and sold the woman some GICs.
I’ll leave it to the blog dogs to speculate on what this person might be doing to local debt/income and price/income ratios. Just one more anecdote.
* – Some details changed to protect the guilty, and to avoid offending anyone’s delicate sensibilities
Did thus get missed? I couldn’t help but chuckle…
http://m.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/calgary-home-sellers-trapped-in-a-down-market/article23665874/?service=mobile
What happened to the idea the young would have to look after the old?
So with low oil settled in, Canada is running @ $1 billion per month trade deficit. Gov’ts at all levels are running large deficits, public and private debts at record highs. Couple that with record RE prices and constant layoff and closures headlines hitting the news and one might consider we are currently not on a good path.
But, wow, first, I apologize for sharing such disconserting facts. That can be stressful. So un-Canadian of me! shhh. peace and forgiveness I beg! Let’s not face the facts. We are proud north, strong and free. We don’t do dirty. We are different. We will not taint our peaceful, fiscally prudent, tree hugging image. We refuse to listen to those who don’t blow sunshine and roses. We love people. Come one come all. and free healthcare and support for all. Yes, free! It is magically paid for by trees we cut up north. But only maples and cedars, never invasive species b/c they have a special cultural beauty and we love that. We are all about love.
Instead, we shall continue to sell houses to eachother. Each one is an exchange of love. B/c we care, and banks care. And it feels so productive so it must be true. and we are way too north to fail.
#ThursdayEclectica,Or… #BuyToLeave:TheNonDomBacklash… #What’sItAllAbout,Alfie?… #OkieDokie’sCNoteDonutopia…
[BloomBerg] – London’s Empty Luxury Homes Draw Election Penalty Vow
…”The phenomenon known as buy-to-leave, with some investors not even bothering to pick up keys to properties, is now becoming an issue in the May 7 national election as more than 460,000 U.K. homes lie vacant. Tessa Jowell, a former Labour lawmaker and bookmaker’s favorite to replace Conservative Mayor Boris Johnson when he steps down in 2016, is making penalties for leaving homes empty a principal part of her campaign.
Johnson urged London councils to “whack up” tax on owners who allow their homes to stand empty for more than a year during an LBC Radio interview last year.”…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-08/london-s-empty-luxury-homes-draw-election-penalty-vow
[Telegraph] – Stolen dog flags down RSPCA van 100 miles from home
…”I have had plenty of people wave me down for help but I have never been flagged down by a dog in need of rescue before,” she said.
“I saw Alfie run towards me, clearly trying to attract my attention.
“He ran right in front of the van, barking.
“As soon as I stopped and opened the door he bounded in, jumped on to the seat and looked at me.
“It was as if he recognised my uniform and knew I was there to rescue him.”…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/pets-health/11524450/Stolen-dog-flags-down-RSPCA-van-100-miles-from-home.html
[CBC] – $100 doughnut at B.C. bakery dazzles with edible gold, sugar diamonds: The Donutopia is made with 24-karat gold flakes, edible ‘diamonds’ and ice wine
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/100-doughnut-at-b-c-bakery-dazzles-with-edible-gold-sugar-diamonds-1.3025102
Trade Deficit and Context
Fancy pants points out:
So with low oil settled in, Canada is running @ $1 billion per month trade deficit.
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Numbers always need context. Canada’s annual exports are about $566 billion. A $12 billion trade deficit is 2% of that amount. Not that big a deal.
$1 billion per month sounds like a lot, but in proper context, it’s not much.
I like the recently introduced format of DELETED (with an explanation).
I have not posted here for some time. But there is disturbing news and my family in Ukraine tells me they are more worried now than at any time since last year, and things now are looking worse than in 2014.
The U.S. is also sending troops to Ukraine soon, and is preparing for large scale war.
Troop and equipment movements on the ground there have accelerated, I am being told, far in excess of anything recently, and it looks like a major spring/summer war could happen.
I don’t have to tell anyone what chaos this could mean for all markets.
http://www.moneymorning.com/ext/articles/rickards/us-to-deploy-paratroopers-to-ukraine
Hotshot Investment Managers?
Trading Naked on 04.08.15 at 10:41 pm
I see that young hotshot energy fund managers like Eric Nuttall and Genevieve Roch-Decter have “new mandates” to invest in small caps and emerging markets now.
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Who could possible care?
In regards to Roch-Decter, maybe you meant hot energy fund manager.
Her father wrote a book around 1999, Michael Decter’s Million Dollar Strategy, about his million dollar RRSP. Which he made mostly with a couple of huge bets on smaller energy companies.
Michael Decter dedicated that book to Pamela Wallin. (Wonder if they are still friends?)
sorry, that link in my previous post may not work –
http://moneymorning.com/ext/articles/rickards/us-to-deploy-paratroopers-to-ukraine
Viceroy victim. $170K lost, 4,000 sq ft of nothing in return.
http://www.thestar.com/business/2015/04/07/shell-of-a-home-viceroy-leaves-unfinished-business.html
Having sold off various types of property in Toronto, even I can’t believe how fast things sell in Hog Town…
Globe and Mail: Just put up a sign and your house is sold
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/it-now-takes-just-20-days-in-toronto-put-up-a-sign-and-your-house-is-sold/article23833920/
As prices continue to rise across the entire sales mix spectrum I can only shake my head.
Nothing lasts forever.
I’m glad I got out when I did.
Anyone “investing” in Vancouver or Toronto right now has to be the stupidest person alive. I don’t care if money is cheap, our dollar is worthless, MSM is constantly pumping up the tires of the RE market, etc. Why on Earth would anyone ever consider buying in a market of insane historical highs??? IF HAM is coming in, I could possibly see it, as their neighbor in mainland can help them in the process and show them some insane returns if the neighbor bought a couple years ago (Buy in quick! You can’t lose!!!! CDN RE is Nuts!), but anyone from the States buying in those 2 markets is just outright dumb. Other cdn markets maybe, but Van/TO – why? lol. They must be looking at anywhere in California or New York and instantly think “Ummm, I don’t care if I get an instant 20% discount. These prices are inflated by 50%”.
#146 Brutus — “I don’t have to tell anyone what chaos this could mean for all markets.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bWyhj7siEY&feature=youtu.be&t=13
“Baby boomers continue to drive sales in the luxury real estate market, upsizing their homes while also helping their Gen-Y offspring with home purchases”, says a new report by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada.
——
All Boomers I know either have no intention of selling or are actually downsizing their homes. This report makes no sense. Boomers cannot upsize and help the offspring with a home purchase at the same time. Nuts!
========
If Genworth’s right (and it is) we’re already seeing a fat transfer of generational wealth, as the Boomers replace old real estate equity with new debt, so their kids can get new equity and even more new debt.
– GT
Don’t get this either! Boomers helping their kids with RE? Yup. Been there, done that! But that was 20 years ago.
#292 The American on 04.08.15 at 6:01 pm
At #263: Holy Crap Where’s The Tylenol, I’m not sure what they’re spewing on the government-owned news channels in Canada to have everyone so snowed, but as for renewable water supplies go, Canada has less than a 10% variance more than the U.S.
http://www.mapsofworld.com/world-top-ten/world-top-ten-fresh-water-supply-map.html
____________________________________________
I said potable water. People use the term loosely with fresh water. Fresh water supply’s in the USA get altered almost immediately as they gush out of the ground. Check out how many American water sources are tainted with salt, pollution, nitrates or sewage. Your percentage of available fresh potable water drops significantly. I can go out and drink directly out of several streams and rivers near where I live. Try that in Bayonne, Hamtramck or Tacoma. I’m not saying all of Canada is pristine sparkling water, we have a our water issues to but not to the extent that America does. Further the distribution of water in America is strewn haphazardly. I grew up in California and Arizona buddy I know all about water. I spent two months in 2014 working on a project in South Carolina where they were begging for rain to refresh the aquifers. It was a drought! South Carolina is not Ca, Tx, Az, Nv, Ut,Nm,Ok,Ks, and so on. 50 states almost all of them have water issues. Wa and Or also have issues. It takes so much water to make everything we produce and own. The hidden use of water is known as virtual water. Nearly 90 percent of the consumption of the world’s fresh water supply is used for producing food and energy. You might not realize this but it takes 1.5 tons of water to make a computer and six tons to make a pair of jeans. Fracking isn’t helping either, oh ya lets take huge amounts of water and inject it deep into the ground to displace oil. So how good is the water after you’ve injected it 2 miles deep into a shale pile? So it’s not surprising that In 20 years, water demand will exceed supply by 40 percent. Sadly, our unsustainable use of water is running in short supply. As I have said before the wars of the future will be fought for water! Not oil!
By the Way these are our government owned news organizations. CBC/Radio-Canada, TVA and APTN are officially considered national networks by the CRTC, while V is a provincial network in Quebec. I try to listen to all news channels including the BBC and the Democratic and Republican USA channels. That way somewhere in between all of the agenda lies the truth!
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home.aspx
http://www.ewg.org/research/dishonorable-discharge/50-most-polluted-rivers-country
#106 Karma on 04.08.15 at 11:07 pm
#292 The American on 04.08.15 at 6:01 pm
“At #263: Holy Crap Where’s The Tylenol, I’m not sure what they’re spewing on the government-owned news channels in Canada to have everyone so snowed, but as for renewable water supplies go, Canada has less than a 10% variance more than the U.S.”
Not about “renewable” fresh water, which is from the precipitation cycle. It’s about water in lakes and glaciers that makes Canada different from the US. You guys have a big fat, ugly desert. We have a big fat, ugly tundra with snow on top of it for a significant portion of the year. And we have more lakes than the US, a lot more… Approximately 1.2 million square kilometres of them.
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/16-201-x/2010000/t230-eng.htm
Go look at a topography map with all the lakes… It’s crazy how many lakes Canada has.
____________________________________________
Perhaps he can read it on MSN, or ABC, CBS, NBC ah what the hell nothing exists in the minds of America north of the 48th!
#130 Annek on 04.09.15 at 12:50 am
What do I know? After all real estate keeps climbing in Toronto.
My question is: how can I make money from the ignorance of the average Canadian. Can I short the market?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Annek my boy I’m glad you asked.
You can get wealthy by becoming a real estate agent and be the “go to” realty guy for the extended family.
#50 Smoking Man on 04.08.15 at 8:37 pm
#34 Steve French on 04.08.15 at 7:50 pm
Hey Smokey does that mean your son just lost $67,000?
… that money could have paid for your book publishing costs…
………………………………………………………..
What, 8% in 3 months, better than most portfolios are doing.
No worries I got the publishing costs covered.
So into this writing shit, I’m getting better everyday, far beyond my expectations.
My test subjects develop aching abdominal pains from laughing so damn hard.
Its going to mostly eBook. I’ll print about 25 hard covers and 100 paper backs.. For my loyal fans only. All signed.
____________________________________________
Do I need to eat some sh-rooms before reading it?
A slightly different anecdote…
I was speaking with a fellow who builds commercial kitchens in western Canada – the kinds you see in restaurants, hotels, bars, etc. New builds and renovations.
He said that in the last 3 months almost all of his projects have had some form of issue: client delaying the schedule, client cancelling, client trying to reduce the upfront payment. Lots of attempts to reduce the upfront payment. It would seem that some business owners are having cash flow issues, so they delay start dates by weeks and try to get 10 to 20% taken off the upfront dollars. The latter is tough to accommodate, as materials are typically involved, including many that are subject to the exchange rate.
He’s seeing this in SK, AB, and BC, and it’s all started in earnest in the last 3 months.
Everyone else’s mileage may vary.
Brutus, if you can, get your family out of Ukraine.
Sarah here. I wrote in December 17th for advice about pulling the trigger and investing.
Just wanted to report back that I’ve got a full ETF portfolio set up thanks to your advice. So thankful I sold my house and now rent, no strings attached.
Please keep on doing what you’re doing!
Re: Canmore’s condo boom. Having lived there (renting, quite happily), for three years, and seeing the devastation from the flood a couple of years ago, I would be very leery about investing in any property down in the flats (a.k.a. old dairy farm). The Glob’s recent story (single-sourced, quoting only the promoter, as is standard Glob editorial policy these days), was mostly smoke & mirrors, IMHO.
130 Annek
My question is: how can I make money from the ignorance of the average Canadian. Can I short the market?
———-
Just keep renting.
Something is happening in Thornhill area. I see houses that didn’t sell last week for around $730000 back on the market for $849000. At least 3 of them. Is this a new trick from realtors to show people that the prices have gone up a lot?
I don’t understand.
#139 Cramdown
A woman recently walked into a bank in Spuzzum* but spoke little english, only german*.
——————
Yeah, those crafty Germans. :)
#120 calgaryPhantom on 04.08.15 at 11:53 pm
Just signed papers for brand new camaro, 8% below invoice price.
You do get good deals if you strike when your enemy is the weakest.
Wanted to share this so that blog dogs know how despatate dealers are here in calgary.
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Had a friend just quit the local “People’s car” dealership in Edmonton because he couldn’t make any money. Nothing is selling, and the stuff that was selling was the massively reduced / discounted stuff where the salesmen barely make a commission.
Ugh. I give up. Canadians cannot see past inferiority complexes to actually receive the message. I make commentary as to why Vancouver is overvalued, having pointed out just because mountains meet water that the Realturds in Vancouver do their best to justify prices. I use other cities as examples where there are actual economies, with mountains meeting water, where values are justified. Somehow, a Canadian will take offense and make the argument about how Canada is better than the U.S. with potable water sources. W. T. F. It’s pointless.
I’m getting more impressed with Kevin O’Leary every time I hear him. We was just on the Marilyn Denis Show debating RE with Scott McGillivray. He sounds like he has a playbook written by Garth. He said that we are now in the 22nd year of a once-in-a-lifetime RE boom and DON’T buy now near the top! RENT! Once the FED raises rates it will be the beginning of a trend and RE will drop worldwide since RE values inversely follow interest rates. He tells young people, “Stay away from debt!”
True story: A woman recently walked into a bank in Spuzzum* but spoke little english, only german*. Luckily, one of the staff speaks german. She wants a history of her bank account, which has almost a million in it. For the last five years, the only transactions have been the monthly withdrawal of the $13,000 mortgage payment. The good staff did what they were trained to do, and sold the woman some GICs.
Spuzzum has a population of less than 60 people, which bank?
“Don’t get this either! Boomers helping their kids with RE? Yup. Been there, done that! But that was 20 years ago.”
Might have actually worked out 20 years ago, as RE was somewhat at a bottom. These days, “helping” the kids out with a RE downpayment may very well be the same as giving them the rope to hang themselves with financially.
I saw that CBC article. Can’t say I’ve seen anything quite as disgusting in a long time.
Ugh. I give up. Canadians cannot see past their inferiority complexes to actually receive the message. I make commentary as to why Vancouver is overvalued, having pointed out that just because mountains meet water that the Realturds in Vancouver do their best to justify prices. I use other cities as examples where there are actual economies, larger populations, with mountains meeting water, where values are actually lower overall and justified. Somehow, a Canadian will take offense and make the argument about how Canada is better than the U.S. with potable water sources. W. T. F.!?!?!?! It’s pointless.
It isn’t that Americans don’t believe anything exists above the 48th. We all know it. Most, frankly, just don’t care! In case you all didn’t get the memo, Americans have a nation over 10 times the size of Canada’s, spread out over a geographical territory that is immensely larger than what the majority of Canadians are living. Americans live in nearly all four corners of our nation, where as Canadians all hover within 60 miles of the U.S. border. It speaks VOLUMES. We have over 10 times the amount of people to contest with on this ship, and Canada (a country smaller than some of our States), isn’t our concern. So, naturally, you would then tend to think we are myopic. We would say you should reconsider who is being myopic in approach to your arguments. Our nation does not become what it is, whether you want to to admit it or not, or like it or not, because it is a myopic and ignorant place. Canadians have propensity to point fingers South ALL THE TIME. We have several, several Canadian friends who we will invite to dinner at varying times. Inevitably, without fail, 100% of the time, not mattering which set of Canadian friends we invite, they will pick an argument at a dinner table as to why America is stupid, inferior, a bully, economically challenged, etc. What’s up with that? It only shows a sad inferiority complex. So, we’re getting to the point, where they’re not going to be receiving invitations. I’ve asked other American friends of mine if I am being too sensitive to it. They’re response? They all have agreed as they all experience the same phenomenon.
We can only boil it down to the fact than when we visit Canada, nearly every media publication (all government owned) does its best to paint the U.S. in the worst kind of light, failing to show Canada’s faults in any way. We do find it laughable. If you only KNEW how much shit your nation has pulled! I’ve asked my Canadian friends about several scenarios, of which they all look at me like a deer in headlights, stating they weren’t aware of such events. Of course not! Why would you be?!?! If you had real access to other media sources, you could understand what you’re missing.
Americans all love playing dumb about it because it needles the ever living shit out of you. Its a lot like a big brother and his younger brother. Everything is taken so fuc*in’ literally in Canada. Its truly exhausting and sad.
If I recall I said will see 1.49$ to 1.79%?Its here,this will be the norm in the next few years.Canada will be in a severe recession by the end of the year.Capital will flee Canada to the other countries like a broken dam.Of course the media will say every thing is ok and the economy and exports are improving.The lies and corruption will continue until all collapses.Good luck to all.
#166 cramar on 04.09.15 at 12:00 pm
I’m getting more impressed with Kevin O’Leary every time I hear him. We was just on the Marilyn Denis Show debating RE with Scott McGillivray. He sounds like he has a playbook written by Garth. He said that we are now in the 22nd year of a once-in-a-lifetime RE boom and DON’T buy now near the top! RENT! Once the FED raises rates it will be the beginning of a trend and RE will drop worldwide since RE values inversely follow interest rates. He tells young people, “Stay away from debt!”
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He must have finally educated himself, because maybe a year ago back on the L&O’L Exchange, he was touting how great of an investment condo’s in Toronto were. haha.
#165 The American on 04.09.15 at 11:57 am
Of course it’s all pointless, and I feel you, Brah! Telling Vancouverites not to step into the altar of RE and not to listen to the preaching of Pastor Realtard, is akin to asking a devoted Christian not to attend church on Sundays.
Not going to happen.
#165 & #169 The American
Have you ever stopped to think that perhaps some people don’t like America and what it is doing and perhaps are willing to pay a premium for real estate in another country just to feel safe and free(er)?
I think there may be more truth to that than you may be allowing for.
#5 Deb: The finance minister has said that deficits are acceptable only in times of war, recession, and disaster.
Aren’t we at war, now?
____________________
Maybe, but we might also be approaching a recession, as Garth has hinted. We’ll have to see…
#169 The American
“Our nation does not become what it is, whether you want to to admit it or not, or like it or not, because it is a myopic and ignorant place”
No sh*t, it gets where it is through slavery, colonialism, crooked foreign policy and war crimes.
Just keep buying our exports and keep yer yaps shut.
#113 Mark
Once again you are full of BS. The engineers that I send up to Ft. Mac on rotation make a 15% uplift on salary and overtime plus free room and board and all transportation costs.
Mark please do not comment on the oil and gas industry for you do not know of which you speak.
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/canadas-mortgage-wars-hit-new-low-as-fixed-rate-dips-to-1-49
A Toronto-based credit union has upped the ante in the spring mortgage rate market wars.
Though the term is only for 18 months, Meridian, Ontario’s largest credit union, has offered what appears to be one of the lowest rates ever on fixed term at 1.49%.
Rob McLister, the founder of ratespy.com, said he thought the new promotion from Meridian might have been a misprint at first. “Now we can say spring market is officially underway,” he said. “This is interest rate insanity.”
Why the Bank of Canada shouldn’t cut rates
http://business.financialpost.com/investing/trading-desk/why-the-bank-of-canada-shouldnt-cut-rates?__lsa=8b89-9136
I’ve noticed that some posters are using the phrase “German(s)”, when describing another race (which rhymes with cheese).
This is used to avoid the delete button.
So, govern yourself accordingly.
Caveat Emptor
North of 49 at 149 noted
Viceroy victim. $170K lost, 4,000 sq ft of nothing in return.
**************************************
Sometimes it mis important to check into the state of the finances of any company that will owe you money or where you pre-pay for a product or service.
Pay with a credit card if you can because that will often protect you.
Interesting (but useless) fact I noted about Viceroy when I looked at it in the early 2000’s
CEO’s name was Gaylord Lindal.
Same last name as the other company in Canada that sells somewhat similar cottage type homes. (Lindal homes) I suspect it was two branches of the same family.
“Once again you are full of BS. The engineers that I send up to Ft. Mac on rotation make a 15% uplift on salary and overtime plus free room and board and all transportation costs.”
That’s not what the APEGA survey says. The salary index for Fort McMurray is similar to that of Calgary. Now, your individual company may have different practices, but that’s not what the ‘average’ company is doing. Its even more pronounced at higher levels of engineering (in the APEGA nomenclature, the C, D, and E-levels) where there’s actually a significant discount for working in Fort McMurray versus in Calgary.
Since someone was on my arse the other day asking for references, here you go: http://www.apega.ca/pdf/SalarySurvey/VPS2014.pdf
“Why the Bank of Canada shouldn’t cut rates”
“Quebec, B.C. and Saskatchewan are on track to either balance their books or produce a surplus, while only Alberta and New Brunswick are showing deficits so far.”
Pretty hard to take an article that seriously when they basically can’t even get the basics right. Saskatchewan is projected to have a deficit on the order of $1.6B this year.
And no, the slowdown in the Canadian economy isn’t a short-term thing. A slowdown was already well underway even with oil at $100/barrel, and policy rates should have been ZIRP’ed a year or two ago.
At #175: Everythingishorrible (In Canada), you mean like this?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/200-years-a-slave-the-dark-history-of-captivity-in-canada/article17178374/
http://www.canadianprogressiveworld.com/2014/09/27/harper-lied-us-requesting-canadas-military-help-iraq/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/07/09/think-our-senate-is-horrible-wait-til-you-see-canadas/
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2011/04/28/international_court_could_probe_possible_canadian_war_crimes.html
http://thediplomat.com/2014/11/speaking-truth-to-power-canadian-war-crimes-in-korea/
http://news.nationalpost.com/health/inside-canadas-secret-world-of-medical-errors-there-is-a-lot-of-lying-theres-a-lot-of-cover-up#__federated=1
http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/out-of-sight-out-of-mind-2/
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/canadas-law-on-hate-speech-is-the-embodiment-of-compromise/article22520419/
http://dougsaunders.tumblr.com/post/4370993762/the-three-lies-canada-tells-about-itself
http://www.globalresearch.ca/canadian-government-lies-over-complicity-in-cia-torture/5419718
http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/first-world-war-internment-camps-a-dark-chapter-in-canadian-history-1.1945156
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/7860552.stm
http://www.timminspress.com/2014/08/22/marking-a-dark-chapter-of-canadian-history
CIBC has pissed me off for the last time.
Albertans: Servus or ATB. Sell me on them.
Hey Garth, just opened my TFSA and bought some small caps. While my friends are lusting over new countertops and decrepit bungs in Cathedral here in Regina, I picked off some undervalued Mad Catz stocks. They are making the controllers for the upcoming Rock Band 4 on PS4 & XBone… They say invest in what you know and I know video games more than fixing a 50 yr old water heater in a crawl space so I’ll be sleeping well this year. I will be continuing to rent and smiling while watching all the kids whining at their over-extended parents to pick up the latest in musical games that promises to be a blast for around $200 for the Drums, guitar, mic and game. Best part, it hopefully releases just in time for Christmas. Excited to see where this goes. Going to diversify more as the months roll on, but hey, TFSA is for fun and some calculated risk within moderation right? Cheers and thanks as always Garth.
Go Riders.
The Germans can take it —
There’s strength in their cheese
But I wouldn’t dare pick on
Those poor Lebanese
O’Leary NEVER said that:
Mike at 171
He must have finally educated himself, because maybe a year ago back on the L&O’L Exchange, he was touting how great of an investment condo’s in Toronto were. haha.
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For years Lang and d O’Leary and before that squeeze play was the only show that I recorded and watched frequently. O’Leary is smart, extremely quick witted and highly entertaining. Many don’t like his extreme right wing views but he is always entertaining. One of the very few people anywhere brave enough to always say what he thinks.
O’Leary warned about what he called shoebox condos for years. I am pretty sure he never said they were a great investment. What O’Leary said, as I recall, is that he kept watching for the price of shoebox condos to drop but and was surprised that they did not drop.
It’s not right to ascribe opinions like that to others when it’s not true.
Maybe you need to join the Kevin O’Leary fan club.
Mike @ #171
He must have finally educated himself, because maybe a year ago back on the L&O’L Exchange, he was touting how great of an investment condo’s in Toronto were. haha.
————
He probably had a bunch of his own condos to dump at the time.
This pretty much sums up a dinner discussion when a Canadian is invited to dinner…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKMIc1RwMIU
Hey Leroy House of Cards Washington. Canada beats the USA. Again.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/index-ranks-canada-as-sixth-most-socially-advanced-country/article23852133/
“Albertans: Servus or ATB. Sell me on them.”
As discussed a few weeks ago (woah, I’ve been here way too long!), provincially regulated institutions seem to be more aggressive lending-wise, and less regulated. So extra due diligence is required if you’re going to be placing large sums with them.
“Maybe you need to join the Kevin O’Leary fan club.”
I was turned off permanently from O’Leary when he was on BNN back in late 2007/2008 pumping Citigroup as a stock. And didn’t particularly like his boosterism of income trusts either.
#169 The American
Ouch, that post was a tad nastier than I appreciate, but they are your words, not mine.
As for Canada, yes a majority of their population lives within say 200 miles of the US border. Hey, the weather is better, the road network is mainly east-west (like ours in case you hadn’t noted).
We have the better people in the US in the states that border Canada, and along our top tier, and great lakes states (excluding Indiana which has a larger share of nit wits according to recent political actions)… my biased opinion here.
That said, the US is hardly the bastion of capitalism, or liberal democracy. We have had our shining moments, as well as our totally regrettable ones. We are NOT without sin, error, or idiots. Neither is Canada.
As far as “safe” or, “free” do not kid yourselves, neither country has any claim to being superior there. In Canada with its vaster wilderness it is probably easier to hide than in the US. However, if you want to drive a lonely road in the US, and get a feel for the population in general try driving across U.S. Rte 50 sometimes. I have taken this route from D.C. through OH, and then again from IL west. A pretty big empty, but an interesting learning experience about the kinds that inhabit this land.
Postmedia losses kneecap shareholders.
$50 million last quarter.
3 X worse than analysts had forecast. Wow!
Will they survive 2015? I don’t think so, not in whole, anyway.
Bye Bye Toronto Scum and National Post, home to Harper apologists and right wing idiots like Andrew Coyne and Crusty Blatchford.
It looks like real estate ads won’t be enough to save inflexible old-school media after all.
The collapse of select major media will be a huge further domino pushing us into a nationwide real estate meltdown.
Fewer echo-chambers and boosters for real estate horniness will make it easier for buyers to sober up.
oops.. my statement “we have the better people in the US should read we have the better people OF the US….
in other words the further south you go, the lower the quality of the Us inhabitant -in MY opinion. There are exceptions the people educated in the north that chose to relocate south.
I don’t much care for the attitude of the southern natives.
#183 & #188 The American
Re-read #173 if you haven’t already read it.
I used to hang with US Draft Dodgers quite a bit in the ’60’s in Vancouver and never met one i didn’t like and respect.
The greed and mining of people and everything by your country today makes the ’60’s look like a cakewalk.
#181 Mark
The Apega survey is just that an arbitrary scan of the industry. It does not zero in on the Ft Mac or any other northern Alta area. I place engineers and trades up north all the time and they are compensated very well even in this low oil price environment.
When I interview engineers for work this survey is never brought up.
RE: #183 The American
You are wasting your efforts.
I’m Canadian and encounter those America bashing whackjobs occasionally.
They are complete hypocrites.
I recently read about a study that if you present someone with undeniable facts to show that their beliefs are unwarranted – they become more firmly entrenched in those beliefs.
#169 The American on 04.09.15 at 12:10 pm
Ugh. I give up.
_____________________________________________
Well thanks then, that pretty much sums it up! Thank you, and you’re welcome!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR5Z4n1TdSI
We are all star stuff.
http://www.iflscience.com/chemistry/building-blocks-life-seen-around-another-star
#183 The American on 04.09.15 at 1:52 pm
At #175: Everythingishorrible (In Canada), you mean like this?
_____________________________________________
Toucher mon ami. J’ai convenu que ce sont tous des choses terribles. Maintenant, multipliez par 100 et vous avez l’Amérique!
BTW in Canada there are two national official languages, in America there is not a national official language! I learned that one in the USAF. Yes sir!
As I said, the perfect storm. Low rates. Cheap currency. Property-loving politicians. National house lust. If Genworth’s right (and it is) we’re already seeing a fat transfer of generational wealth, as the Boomers replace old real estate equity with new debt, so their kids can get new equity and even more new debt. Thus the concentration of new worth into a single asset increases, at the same time total leverage bloats further.
___________________________________________
I just can not see these kids investing in real estate or any equity investment fund once these funds transfer. They live for today (or tomorrow). I call it the “I gotta have it now generation.”
Negative Bonds go on sale in Switzerland…you pay to buy!!!
First time ever.
Rates are rising? Nope. Keynesian thinking means rates go to zero and then negative. Meanwhile scare people into thinking rates are going to rise, privatize profits, and create a class system.
Vanecdotal and Mark both seem clueless. Are they the same person? Read this:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/04/01/google-psychology_n_6984348.html
On the discussion of Fort Mac wages… From someone who used to live up there…
As a professional, yes you will make more than your Edm/Cal counterparts, but not a heck of a lot more, but a few things probably aren’t factored into that Apega survey.
-Almost every company up in ft mac pays you to live up there. Either they offer 100% completely free living in a camp, or they offer you an LOA if you live in the city. I used to get $15k a year for LOA which was average, if not on the low side.
-The big money is in overtime. As a kid directly out of university, with maybe 10hrs of OT a week, I was making between $100-$120k per year.
Now, if you’re in a trade (like most people are up in ft mac), you are going to work WAY more OT, and also most likely get paid way more if you’re skilled. Think $50/hr minimum, plus all the OT you want plus many received MASSIVE retention bonuses (ie $60k per year)… $150k per year would be on the very low side for guys up there. $200k or $250k was probably normally. This was how it was before oil crashed. Now, if you haven’t been laid off, much of the OT, LOA, retention, etc has drived up.
So imagine losing half your wage instantly. That’s what many of the guys up there are facing right now. $100k a year? EASY PEASY to live off right? For most, heck yeah! For them, with all the toys, trucks, boat, wifes spending habits and $70k SUV, possibly paying 2 mortgages or rents (fort mac + where ever their family livs), etc… Not so much. That’s where and how the pain is being felt up there right now.
When I left, I took a 50% paycut with absolutely zero debt, and it took a long time to adjust to my new spending habits. Gone were the days of 50% tips for cute waitresses, and buying rounds and rounds of drinks for your friends b/c you had so much money that you gladly could.
The smart ones in fort mac get in and get out, or they get in and become extremely rich… But most aren’t smart… They moved to ft mac b/c it was the only way they could be somewhat successful, and now their facing a world of hurt for a while.
#131 Vanecdotal on 04.09.15 at 12:53 am
“Some of the highest household incomes in Canada (per Census data) are out here in the desirable areas btw”
——————————————
haha your joking right? desirable areas? let me guess your from whalley but tell people you live in whiterock…..
you should change your name to : wish i was from van but i sold in 2009 cause a blog told me to…. hahaha
“The Apega survey is just that an arbitrary scan of the industry.”
Your point? The survey makes it very clear that there is no meaningful premium for working in Fort McMurray at least for engineers. You can discount it all you want, and of course, it doesn’t reflect your individual anecdotal experience, but its a heck of a lot more credible than trying to generalize your anecdote over literally hundreds of employers. The fact is, there is at least for engineers, no meaningful premium for working in Fort McMurray, and it is actually a pay cut for many considering the dramatically higher cost of living.
Why aren’t wages for professionals higher in Fort McMurray? Perhaps because actual industrial experience (rather than paper-pushing in some Calgary cube farm) is so valued by employees that they’re willing to sacrifice compensation. I hear many out there are also attracted to living near the wildnerness.
#183 The American
#196 western observer
That’s the worst you could dig up? Do I need to give you a history lesson on US military campaigns beginning after the american revolution?
So typical, if you don’t to kiss a yanks ass and stroke their ego they become wounded and sulk. The truth hurts doesn’t it? It’s easier the put on a stars and stripes bandana and skull a case of miller high life then reflect upon reality.
At #199: Multiply the problems Canada. THAT’S THE POINT! We are dealing with 10 times the people! Now you’re getting it! Wow! It wasn’t that hard, right?
Also, you’re right! The U.S. does NOT have an official language! Want to know why? Because it is a “cultural melting pot!” To have an official language would dictate that any one language is indeed more acceptable than another. America changes as the demographics change. In time, the language changes with it. In Canada, you claim to embrace “multiculturalism,” yet Canada mandates by law that there are two official languages that must be on nearly every god damn sign and packaging label. That doesn’t sound like multiculturalism to me! Think about it….
Meridian Credit Union has a 1.49% 18 month fixed rate mortgage.
We are going to the bottom soon!
The American: your youtube post: that’s too hard core, I stopped watching
At #207: 45North, yes it is hardcore. Believe it or not, it was posted by a Canadian.
Will you die with a mortgage? 10 reasons why more people will
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/will-you-die-with-a-mortgage-a-growing-number-of-canadians-likely-will/article23776003/
Somehow the USA is going to see significant growth and decouple from the rest of the world because of cheap gas right?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-09/we-travelled-across-china-and-returned-terrified-for-the-economy
@TheAmerican,
You will like this video!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-EVF7CZt_w
Kevin O’Leary
Mark said:
I was turned off permanently from O’Leary when he was on BNN back in late 2007/2008 pumping Citigroup as a stock. And didn’t particularly like his boosterism of income trusts either.
******************************************
I started watching O’Leary from the very start on the then-named ROBtv, at first he was Investor at Large, later the Squeezeplay show came along.
Agreed he loved Income Trusts and bawled like a baby after the October 31, 2006 announcement of pending taxes for Income Trusts and cried about it every time it was mentioned ever since.
I recall what he liked about Trusts was that with the pressure of paying out all the profits monthly, management was totally focused on profits and they were unable to waste them on stupid acquisitions and such. He like the “pay daddy” aspect.
As for Citi I don’t recall him pumping that stock. He often gave opinions on companies. Nothing wrong with opinions. He was quick to say if any company missed its numbers, the CEO should be “whacked” or taken behind the barn and shot (his words).
It would be hard to deny the man is bright. His ego and views offend most Canadians. So what? The man has many good insights on businesses. I certainly don’t agree with all he says but I respect his success, drive, intelligence, and honesty. Mostly I just find him entertaining as heck.
I do recall he hated Nortel and Bombardier and was right on those two.
#208 Ray Vasquez on 04.09.15 at 3:55 pm
Meridian Credit Union has a 1.49% 18 month fixed rate mortgage.
We are going to the bottom soon!
**********************************************
You are going to the bottom.
Homeowners are doing just fine.
Good luck to you mr.Basment dweller.
@The American & Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol
PLZ read
The Backfire Effect
http://goo.gl/S8tEVg
“Once something is added to your collection of beliefs, you protect it from harm. You do it instinctively and unconsciously when confronted with attitude-inconsistent information. Just as confirmation bias shields you when you actively seek information, the backfire effect defends you when the information seeks you, when it blindsides you. Coming or going, you stick to your beliefs instead of questioning them. When someone tries to correct you, tries to dilute your misconceptions, it backfires and strengthens them instead. Over time, the backfire effect helps make you less skeptical of those things which allow you to continue seeing your beliefs and attitudes as true and proper.”
“When you read a negative comment, when someone shits on what you love, when your beliefs are challenged, you pore over the data, picking it apart, searching for weakness. The cognitive dissonance locks up the gears of your mind until you deal with it. In the process you form more neural connections, build new memories and put out effort – once you finally move on, your original convictions are stronger than ever.”
NDP taking over Alberta… maybe we are finished.
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/don-braid-are-alberta-tories-at-the-tipping-point
#193 Retired Boomer – WI on 04.09.15 at 2:17 pm
“… in other words the further south you go, the lower the quality of the Us inhabitant -in MY opinion. There are exceptions the people educated in the north that chose to relocate south.
I don’t much care for the attitude of the southern natives.”
==========================
Sorry, retired Boomer! I have to take issue with you there!
A few years ago, on a flight from Atlanta to Kansas City, I had to divert make an unscheduled landing in Northern Alabama after encountering severe turbulence and extreme static-electrical problems that left me without most of my instumentation. The landing was visual VFR.
I was stuck for 5 days waiting for parts and repairs to the aircraft’s avionics.
The thought of spending any more time than necessary in any part of Alabama terrified me.
To my surprise, the folks in Huntsville and the many surrouding towns I visited (black/white/and in-between) were amongst the most friendly, congenial, helpful and mutually respectful of any folks I had encountered anywhere in North America, and I have been from the Artic Circle to Panama, and from the Atlantic to the Pacific.
My thinly-veiled bigoted steriotypes were left in tatters.
I currenly reside in Southern Arizona; about 15 miles from the Mexican border. I have never been exposed to hint of racism here, and our city is composed of Blacks, Hispanics, Caucasians, Native Americans, East Indians and Asians.
I deeply resent your smug, ignorant, uniformed and blase opinion that, “the further south you go, the lower the quality of the US inhabitant”. (as a little experiment, try inserting the word “Black”, Jewish, or Chinese” instead of ‘US’ in the sentence above… sounds a little strange to your comfortably smug ears, doesn’t it?)
Narrow-minded Provincialism, outright bigotry, divisive prejudices, bitter injustices and blind, vicious racism have no knowlege of geography. They can rear their ugly faces anywhere.
If “going North” solved all these issues, there wouldn’t be a hint of racism in Prince George, BC, or Thompson Manitoba, or Sudbury, Ontario now would there!
Read the article AND the comments:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102569757
And then you’ll realize how insane most Canadians are.
A house in Toronto went for 1.5 million before being listed. The financing just fell through for the contractor that wanted to buy it. Is this a trend?
#204 vancity604
#202 Swiss Banker
Split personality?
The difference between us is I actually hope I’m wrong, because a lot of decent people may find the rug pulled out from under them shortly. You otoh seem like the type(s) to throw your best friend under a bus to make a dollar as long as you’re “right”. Time will tell.
Precrime officer -an algo that forecast human behaviour! Through Emails, chats and telephone ,can be analyzed electronically to determine if employees are trying to collude or conceal intentions
================
Behavioural study
Her study involved researching the behaviour of people who belong to exclusive networks, like the tight circles that make up many boards of directors.
To test ethical behaviour in networks, she put research subjects into groups and asked them to divvy up a pot of money that would benefit either people within their network or those they don’t know.
“Individuals are more likely to cross moral boundaries and engage in deception for another person in the cyclic network than they would for themselves,” Song said in her paper, published in the Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organization.
She said people who belong to these tight circles may believe “if everyone ‘helps’ everyone else, everyone will be better off.”(cbc)
#221 Vanecdotal on 04.09.15 at 5:44 pm
Oh ad hominem, ad hominem oh and ad hominem
A 1.49% Mortgage?
Offered by a small Credit Union in Ontario – just reported on CTV.
It’s true!
It’s an 18 month term.
Insanity.
One of your noted blogdogs:
“The general populace has no idea of what’s coming”.
That says it all.
I hope to God Poloz doesn’t drop the Interest rates again…or we are going to be in a world of hurt.
One last fun note: The announcement that the Brits have discovered a humongous Shale Oil deposit that dwarfs any ever found, throws a shiver into the Oil Sands, and every other producer.
You think the RE Market sucks in Alberta and Fort Mac, now – well, just wait.
#193 Retired Boomer – WI on 04.09.15 at 2:17 pm…
I usually enjoy your posts, but “…in other words the further south you go, the lower the quality of the Us inhabitant…”
As Vicky Pollard would say “Ooh my God, I so can’t believe you said that!”
#220 & #227
…as stated, this is based solely on MY opinion, formed through MY experiences dealing with varied people from TX, AL, GA, KY, and FL.
…your mileage may vary.
I nodded along to all the Dollarama posts here. Good to see.