To the bottom

POOL modified

On Tuesday Bank of Montreal dropped its five-year fixed mortgage rate to (drum roll, please), 2.79%.  (You read it here first.) That’s twenty points less than it was on Monday and 30 bips below the nearest big bank (the green one). To get a rate lower than this, you have to become a customer of an unknown mortgage outfit some guy runs out of the trunk of his Cordoba.

Seriously. It’s a race to the bottom.

This is the regrettable consequence of the goofy move by the Bank of Canada to lower its key rate a quarter point in January, when it freaked out at the slide in oil prices. What’s already happened – and which BeeMo will accelerate tomorrow – is the creation of two distinct and fragile economies within the bosom of a single nation.

In the oily part, low rates mean nothing. They won’t rescue anyone’s job, raise the price of crude, save any truck nutz or keep a single energy project from being mothballed. And they sure won’t help the suffering real estate markets in Calgary, Edmonton or Fort Mac.

Mike Fotiou knows that. For a realtor, he’s an astute dude. The tsunami of new listings in Calgary has subsided so far this month, and while sales are still down by a third, he says nobody can say the housing market has bottomed. It’s all about jobs.

“Why is it too early to be calling a bottom in Calgary’s market?  Because Alberta’s economy hasn’t found a bottom.  Last month, employment fell by 14,000 giving back the 13,700 jobs gained in January and then some.   Since there haven’t been any developments to suggest there aren’t more job losses on the way, we can expect a slow market for the short-term at the very least.”

Demand for houses has shrivelled like a corner-store banana in those places where people are worried about their paycheques. The same oil patch that was showering 22-year-olds with $200,000 payouts has taken away the riches just as quickly. Camps are closing. The free flights have ended. The layoffs are swelling. So the buyers are gone.

But in the last two bubble markets in Canada, the absolute opposite. As interest rates get shoved lower by desperate policy-makers (seven months before a federal election), people are pigging out on the cheapest debt of their lifetimes. The consequence has been a spurt in sales, prices and hormonal secretions, pushing YVR and the GTA into uncharted waters.

You know the numbers. Outstanding mortgages just shot up another $80 billion as we hit a new debt record. Savings are falling, spending is rising, and it’s all based on borrowing. We’ve now blown past the debt levels of those crazy Yanks just before their real estate market blew up.

Here’s a no-crap warning from Capital Economics; David Madani:

“Lower mortgage rates… will only result in greater imbalances in terms of housing overvaluation, household debt and overbuilding. Over the past two years, increasing numbers of higher-risk home buyers have turned to smaller banks and other non-traditional lenders. As the Bank of Canada warned in its last Financial System Review, mortgages provided by these “less regulated” institutions have grown rapidly. Since much of this lending is essentially sub-prime, we fear that this type of lending and its support to home sales in the short term will only lead to even greater problems and more painful adjustments in the longer term. Exactly the same thing happened in the US housing bubble with the rise of lenders like Countrywide Financial. These excesses are another reason why we believe housing is overdue for a major correction.”

As this pathetic blog has argued for so long it’s now painful, the inverse relationship between mortgage rates and house prices is all the evidence anyone needs of why beater houses now cost a million in these two cities. It’s not Chinese moneybaggers. It’s not the economy. Instead it’s the insatiable appetite delusional Canadian families have for financing. If five-year mortgages were 5.49% tomorrow, instead of 2.79%, houses would still be affordable.

So, look at this chart. Here’s why real estate costs what it does:

DEBT CHART modified

Warns US-based Wolfstreet.com:

“And if interest rates ever rise even by a smidgen? The blue line would do what it started doing in 2006. It would roar higher. With consumer indebtedness at these levels, even a small increase in interest rates will make a big difference in the interest expense consumers would have to fork over. The Bank of Canada will have trouble ever raising rates, regardless of the distortion and mayhem near-zero rates are causing. Households can no longer afford higher rates. They have too much debt and not enough income. Higher interest payments would eat into spending on other things. Higher mortgage rates would crash the still magnificent home prices. Consumers would buckle under their burden and default. Not to speak of the already struggling oil companies. And then there are the banks that have lent with utter abandon to all of them.”

Lots of logic there. Higher rates, even marginally increased, will push many people to the wall and materially impact the overall economy. This is why the Bank of Canada’s No.2 person told MPs a few days ago our central bank would not necessarily move in lockstep with the US Fed, which will be pulling the rate trigger later this year.

But, rates will go eventually go up. And houses will go down. Just stand on your head and look at the chart. Madani is sticking with his prediction of a 25% price decline nationally – which will mean a lot more in you-know-where. Adds the Wolf Street economist: “Gravity is already and very inconveniently inserting itself into Canada’s incredible housing boom.”

You should get ready for this.

Or you can post a comment below saying rates will never rise. That’ll protect you.

287 comments ↓

#1 Leroy Washington on 03.16.15 at 6:14 pm

Canadians are very stupid people. They will all be separated from their money soon. Long live the USA – woo hoo!

#2 Auto on 03.16.15 at 6:21 pm

Good bye Camaro, I guess manufacturing in Canada isent booming?

#3 Anthony G on 03.16.15 at 6:22 pm

Almost first

Good article, I’m saving and saving waiting for everything to go on sale

#4 aL Pacino on 03.16.15 at 6:23 pm

If five-year mortgages were 5.49% tomorrow, instead of 2.79%, houses would still be affordable.

HUH ?

#5 bob on 03.16.15 at 6:25 pm

this pathetic blog has argued for so long it’s now painful

You missed your usual punchline of house horniness and tie-in with 50 shades of grey humor…

#6 aL Pacino on 03.16.15 at 6:27 pm

But, rates will go eventually go up. And houses will go down. Just stand on your head and look at the chart.

**************************************

I CAN BELIEVE YOU KEEP SAYING THAT.
THEY SIMPLE CANNOT GO UP….EVER.EVER.EVER…AMEN

#7 Dboy1 on 03.16.15 at 6:28 pm

Interest rates will never rise. There I said it. Is it true now???

#8 Sum Ting Wong on 03.16.15 at 6:29 pm

A $250,000 Tour With One Aim: Get Chinese to Buy a Home – Bloomberg Business

But not in Canaduh, Eh??

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-15/a-250-000-tour-with-one-aim-get-chinese-to-buy-a-home

#9 Ontario's Left Coast on 03.16.15 at 6:29 pm

Subaru: The beauty of all-wheel drive.

#10 aL Pacino on 03.16.15 at 6:30 pm

Madani is sticking with his prediction of a 25% price decline nationally – which will mean a lot more in you-know-where.

***************************************

NO SIR, THEY WILL NOT.
OUR GOV WILL JUST SWALLOW ANY NEGATIVE EQUITY OF THOSE UNDERWATER WITH THE TAXPAYER DIME.

#11 Dboy1 on 03.16.15 at 6:33 pm

Sold our house in Lloydminster last summer and are renting now. No more real estate in Canada for us till this mess is fixed (long time)!!!

#12 Robbie on 03.16.15 at 6:34 pm

When rates rise and money is tight you can always do as the photo shows…open a self-serve car wash in your back yard! :)

#13 zedgt87 on 03.16.15 at 6:34 pm

This is a good post garth.

Your reasoning also applies to Equities though. Look at a chart of margin debt/rates with stock valuations. Leverage in financials is at all time highs, any tick up in rates will cause disturbance there as well.

#14 aL Pacino on 03.16.15 at 6:34 pm

I predict beaver-loonie at 50c and 15% more expensive homes by year end.
Anybody with me on this????

#15 TS on 03.16.15 at 6:35 pm

I’m worried that rates won’t rise and Harper and his gang will crash the dollar to 60 cents

He’s going to protect idiots who bought too big of homes and lettuce is going to be $10 a head.

#16 Catch 22 on 03.16.15 at 6:36 pm

We are screwed either way. Raise the rates and blow up housing or keep them low and crater the dollar. Either way, costs are going up. I would prefer to see the rates go up personally because I would rather not see a 60 cent dollar.

#17 White Van Man on 03.16.15 at 6:36 pm

Silly, Silly, Canadians!

#18 Interstellar Old Yeller on 03.16.15 at 6:38 pm

About yesterday’s comments: I am amused by the various questions, criticisms, and suggestions spurred by Piccaso’s grocery list. Not really OT, kind of the discussion that’s a precursor to trading tips on where to buy scratch & dent discounted food, tips on how much you can push “best before” dates, location and schedule of your city’s best dumpsters, then squirrel meat recipes. Not trying to be flip, it’s a natural progression in a crap economy where, despite your income (or lack thereof), everyone’s gotta eat.

Piccaso, I’ve got no criticisms for your choices. Some of what we eat is for comfort, some for convenience, some is out of addiction. I’ve been lucky enough to pair up with someone who has the energy and inclination to regularly cook from scratch. Even then, some meals come from a box.

I will (respectfully) suggest trading the coffee cream for something else. Milk in coffee is fine. Bacon > cream?

#19 Realtor Logic on 03.16.15 at 6:39 pm

Rates will not rise.

There.

I did not say “never”.

But for the foreseeable years ahead, they won’t. Too much chaos for any political party to survive.

Of course we will become a 2nd world country in a decade or so of this as the US dollar goes up.

But I only care about real estate :)

And the Florida vacations my commission pay for :)

Oh, wait….those are getting more expensive…..hmmm…

#20 Terrier on 03.16.15 at 6:41 pm

Great article Garth … right now the bottom feeders will come out with sub primes deals in a full swing. This goes beyond insanity …

#21 Halifax Observer on 03.16.15 at 6:43 pm

This is an unbelievable deal for a great Alberta rig truck. More of these to come for sure.

http://www.kijiji.ca/v-cars-trucks/calgary/lumbersexual-edition-nissan-se-x-terra-suv/1050293800

#22 Richard Moore on 03.16.15 at 6:44 pm

I guess people don’t read Henry Hazlitt or Ludwig Von Mises anymore?

#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.16.15 at 6:45 pm

@# leroy washington

THAT was the best name you could come up with?
Oh, right.
Mine was taken.

#24 To the bottom | Realties.ca on 03.16.15 at 6:46 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/03/16/to-the-bottom/ […]

#25 Smoking Man on 03.16.15 at 6:47 pm

#2 Auto on 03.16.15 at 6:21 pm
Good bye Camaro, I guess manufacturing in Canada isent booming?
…………………..

You can thank our activist teacher premier, more interested in put a wedge in man woman relationships than creating jobs.

The good news for home owners , Poloz is going to need to get our buck down to 50% to stop the convoy of business wanting to get out of lala land of Wynee tax and take and stop on the mans face mind set.

How does he do that.. One guess.

#26 warm leatherette on 03.16.15 at 6:50 pm

Anthony G on 03.16.15 at 6:22 pm
Almost first

Good article, I’m saving and saving waiting for everything to go on sale

Whats to wait for?

Oil patch is on sale. Are you buying?

#27 Rainclouds on 03.16.15 at 6:56 pm

Pretty sure Van has hit or is very close to the debt wall. A whiff of desperation in the spring air and unlike little old Lunenburg, nobody stops for pedestrians, and the “street people” aren’t getting the love either.

When Buffy and Chad have to forgo their Non Fat Latte at a trendy coffee shop, panic sets in.

When the Audi/BMW/Mercedes lease expires and a used Kia is the new wheels, it hurts.

WTF? We cant afford Mexico this winter…..?Ouch!

Better call Bill Good and Sherry Cooper of Dominion Lending fame

There are a lot of people hanging on by their financial fingernails here in the city of the real estate play. Ten suites for sale in my building in Yaletown, have sat for MONTHS, no takers.

I truly hope Closet Boy gets re-elected and has to deal with the turd he is producing but expect he will bail.

#28 amazon girl on 03.16.15 at 6:57 pm

Garth

Smidgen? …..Love it !

#29 johnny d on 03.16.15 at 6:59 pm

Hopefully anybody saving for a correction isn’t doing so in CAD, whether it be in cash or in a financial portfolio. Our money won’t even be useful as buttwipe (new polymer bills aren’t soft or absorbant) once Poloz crashes our currency.

#30 not 1st on 03.16.15 at 7:02 pm

Garth, what is the demographic of the debt binge? I mean are these 40 year olds with some equity built somewhere or is the debt load all on the back of horny 20 somethings who love stainless steel and got hypnotized by the condo marketing machine.

This matters because it will determine who can ride it out and who cannot.

#31 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.16.15 at 7:03 pm

@#27 rainclouds

‘Closet Boy” aka Harper

Almost choked on my drink.

#32 pwn3d on 03.16.15 at 7:04 pm

Fixed rates going down, and the BoC is going to drop again too… hold on to your hats YVR/YYZ May is going to be a crazy good month to sell…

Btw your advice on weekly mortgage repayment is spot on. Personally I did bi-weekly accelerated as I got paid bi-weekly. It’s almost the same as having it come straight off your pay. You save years off your mortgage and tons of cash. A 15 year mortgage gone in 12.

#33 Mayer Rothschild on 03.16.15 at 7:04 pm

Here is a good article with time frame.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/03/16/christine-hughes-canada-layoffs-oil-construction/
Enjoy! What is the number one conductor of electricity at room temp? What is the number one reflective metal? What kills over 300 different pathogens and virus’s including ebola? What is the second most used industrial commodity?
?? (Silver)

#34 Mayer Rothschild on 03.16.15 at 7:05 pm

Oh yeah– What is there less of above ground? Gold or Silver??? Silver!
$15 bucks an ounce sounds about right!!

#35 ILoveCharts on 03.16.15 at 7:10 pm

Will the loonie continue to drop? Trying to decide what to do with my USD.

#36 Mark on 03.16.15 at 7:12 pm

Cheap mortgages for the creditworthy, but what sort of rates go to the masses of less-than-creditworthy people who are losing their jobs by the day?

We saw this in the US. Cheap refinances were being offered, but most of the people who actually could have meaningfully benefitted from the refinances to lower their cost of living, didn’t actually have enough equity to qualify.

Personally I think a lot of people are going to be awfully sad when they actually get into a BMO branch and discover that the alleged low rates simply aren’t available to them.

#37 ShawnG in TO on 03.16.15 at 7:14 pm

I thought the Feds drove the Cordoba and the mobsters drove Monte Carlo? … ooooh, i get what you mean now.

#38 not 1st on 03.16.15 at 7:22 pm

Canada has a debt problem but we sure as hell are not alone. Just about every country on the planet is in the same boat or much worse. It all comes from not allowing excesses to be purged from the market, something that normally results in a few years of pain, then the economy would resume again.

This time it would be a decade of pain to fix it all. And since nobody can handle the kind of austerity needed to roll it all back, the powers that be are probably already talking about a worldwide debt jubilee. Its the only way out now. Those gold hoarders aren’t as crazy as they sound.

#39 PM on 03.16.15 at 7:23 pm

So what would make rates go up? If the BoC doesn’t feel it has to match the US Fed then what will force rates to rise?

Can the gov tighten lending and then keep rates low until the outstanding debt concerns pass?

What happens if the US goes up and we don’t?

#40 Andrew on 03.16.15 at 7:23 pm

Garth if the price of oil is expected to fall further and the US is also expected to hike interest rates before Canada won’t this push the Canadian dollar down a lot further than it is now?

#41 Carly in Cabbagetown on 03.16.15 at 7:24 pm

DELETED (Ad hominem)

#42 Bobs ur uncle on 03.16.15 at 7:25 pm

#21 Halifax Observer on 03.16.15 at 6:43 pm

That. Was. Awesome.
Thanks for the link. Totally made my day.

#43 CREIT on 03.16.15 at 7:28 pm

I’m refinancing one of my properties and scotia offered me 2.75% and CIBC said they can easily beat that. Guess who i’m going with. Also, if you use a broker you can get 2.59%

#44 Washed Up Lawyer on 03.16.15 at 7:29 pm

#21 Halifax Observer

That ad for the Nissan is very comical. The video is hilarious (at least for a while). This guy is a talent. Dogs, if you have a few minutes, give it a try. Brown, windy, southern Alberta spring day. I sold my handloading equipment so the brass does not add value to me. Looks like a heavy belted magnum cartridge and I was more into the .270 Win etc.

#45 Boombust on 03.16.15 at 7:32 pm

Leroy #1,

Ppppphhhhfffttt!

#46 Gregor Samsa on 03.16.15 at 7:32 pm

>I’m worried that rates won’t rise and Harper and his gang will crash the dollar to 60 cents

That’s the most likely scenario in my mind. Who are the Harper voters? They are mostly made up of mindless, suburban, drones – the type of people all mortgaged to the eyeballs. Harper has already shown he will do anything and everything to win an election. So put two and two together and you realize that Harper will do anything and everything to save the suburban housing bubble as long as possible, and thus save his votes.

We are going to ride this condo economy to another Harper majority, or bust trying. Expect rate cuts.

#47 Debt's Dark Embrace on 03.16.15 at 7:33 pm

Garth will claim victory if rates rise by a quarter or a half a percent in the next 3 years. But rates are not going to rise meaningfully cuz it would bankrupt the country. Expect a 65 to 70 cent dollar.

#48 Smoking Man on 03.16.15 at 7:34 pm

Ha, remeber about a month ago, when Poloz cut, banks stalled for a bit then dropped by 0.15

I said in the spring BMO would be the first to start the mortgage war…. Boom…

Anyway Bi Bi Nutandyahoo…
Way to go Israeli’s… Showing the loon the door. There is hope for that country. Ah maybe not..

Bill C51, is realy vague, open for abuse. Why are all Western countries doing these types of things. I see the USA trying to shut down amo sales..

What is it they’re afraid of?

Oh my kid lost 40gs yesterday, but fought back hard, he’s back up to 202k. Had he listened to me when I said let it ride over night. He said ok, than took the hit. He would be up over 250k.

But he’s doing some wierd shit. I’m trying to figure out how long it will take him to lose it all. His profit. The base is mine, but need to watch him closer.

He’s left his job… Even though he had two more weeks..

SAID SCREW THE MAN..

Bahahaha. I’ve created a Monster.

#49 r on 03.16.15 at 7:39 pm

Rates will not go up not in USA nor in Canada. At least not until September

#50 neo on 03.16.15 at 7:39 pm

Capital Economics; David Madani predicted the 25% drop in 2011. Shouldn’t it be higher at this point since we have gone up another 25% and more since then.

#51 Linda on 03.16.15 at 7:41 pm

#16 Catch 22 – the 60 cent dollar will mainly only matter if you travel or buy stuff outside of Canada. Though cost of goods in Canada will – is – rising.

As for the housing crash, well, don’t see any way out of that pain unless you own your house outright & don’t need to sell that asset in order to retire. Then ouch & ouch again if you bought at these crazy prices. If you don’t need to liquidate the house for any reason & are mortgage free, no worries – you can sit back & watch the action.

I have to side with those who say the government will try to save the economy by keeping interest rates artificially low. Yet how long can they do this? Eventually the music will stop & those not occupying a chair will be out of the game. Those still in the chair might wonder if it was worth it in the long run.

The banks – if they are over exposed & vulnerable (which I’d be surprised by – Canadian banks seem to make money no matter what) then maybe their stocks will drop & astute investors can scoop some deals on good quality bank stocks?

Speaking of the astute, those with debt who want to pay as little interest as possible might want to arrange a mortgage at the super low rate & then pay off their debt if they can. Of course, that means NOT taking on more debt because, hey, you can & that goodie you want is such a good deal right now……

#52 devore on 03.16.15 at 7:42 pm

#18 Interstellar Old Yeller

I will (respectfully) suggest trading the coffee cream for something else. Milk in coffee is fine. Bacon > cream?

Even better, find a quality coffee you actually like (maybe $2 a bag more than the regular junk you buy), and skip the cream (and sugar!) entirely. Good coffee actually tastes good, just on its own. The health benefits are just a nice bonus.

#53 Obvious Truth on 03.16.15 at 7:42 pm

The whole point to garths posts from here on in it seems is that we are in a pickle. Everyone should have seen it coming. And you shouldn’t count on anyone for help except yourself.

Those who didn’t jump in or left the part early will do just fine.

The boc has made themselves irrelevant. They can’t really do anything good for anyone at this point. Nobody is going to save you from anything. You shouldn’t entertain that for a second. Ask folks in Alberta. Government says cut.

I have personally never witnessed anything turn this quickly in an economy. (Well maybe 08) People tell me Toronto malls have people but few shoppers. And prices are up. My own assessment of the 401 truck economy is that it’s slowed a tad. And it never really returned to 07 levels.

The chair lady is in charge now. “Bottoms up” it seems south of the border.

#54 Retired Boomer - WI on 03.16.15 at 7:43 pm

Got my quarterly dividend statement today on my oils.
Not exciting at $315.00 but it at least buys a few dinners out.
Market is trying to recover a bit, thanks. (I will need that someday).
So, cheap money for sale, eh? Good time to snag some hanging fruit if you need to re-fi now. Buying might not be the brightest idea right this minute, think 5% at next renewal.
Why? Why not, who is going to lend money at less than inflation? Despite the bull water, inflation is alive and well at 1-2% here, and more elsewhere consult your local lettuce. That means to borrow from ME, I need 200 its over inflation -that’s 2% for the financially impaired.

Yeah, sounds Loonie, get used to it. Borrowers will never get it.

#55 Squirrel Meat on 03.16.15 at 7:44 pm

Only half underwater, and looks like they made it out!

#56 Linda on 03.16.15 at 7:50 pm

A sixty cent Canadian dollar only matters if you shop or travel outside of Canada. Prices in Canada are creeping higher so might hurt here too.

If you own your home (no mortgage) & don’t need to sell to retire, no problem. Otherwise, ouch.

Banks in Canada are good at making money. Maybe an opportunity to buy at lower prices? Plus current government will do their utmost (election year) to keep a lid on things.

#57 Craigster on 03.16.15 at 7:50 pm

15 and smoking man – currency crashing is exactly what happened in the UK post 2007. Interesting outcomes = consumer near-hyperinflation (10% ish on food and fuel) for 2-3 years, then moderation in price increases largely because retailers had to cut prices to sell. Fast forward eight years and the big box retailers in the UK are now crashing and burning. Expect this to happen to Canadian Tire, Shoppers etc in oh around 2020?

#58 westcanguy on 03.16.15 at 7:50 pm

Nobody rides for free.

We all pay to play and it looks like the time to play is getting much closer.

I meant to type “time to pay” not “time to play”. We’ve already done enough playing.

#59 Ralph Cramdown on 03.16.15 at 7:53 pm

#18 Interstellar Old Yeller

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAXtjH3EmLs

#60 IM in C on 03.16.15 at 7:53 pm

The political party that allows a house-a-geddon to occur on their watch will find themselves out of power for the next generation. So housing prices will not fall. CMHC, and by extension, the banks will be told not to foreclose. 10 years ago it was 40 year no down payment loans, that saved the real estate market. Now, it will be something similar, ie. re-negotiate to interest only etc etc.

#61 Carly in Cabbagetown on 03.16.15 at 8:00 pm

Garth,

You deleted ME, and left that original, hateful comment on your blog???????

Seriously!!!??????????!!!!!

Seriously. Ream him without the language. — Garth

#62 Joe2.0 on 03.16.15 at 8:01 pm

Bank rates go down.
Buyers go up.
House prices go up say another 25%
What’s the problem?

#63 waiting on the westcoast on 03.16.15 at 8:03 pm

#50 Squirrel Meat on 03.16.15 at 7:44 pm
Only half underwater, and looks like they made it out!

+1

#64 Smoking Man on 03.16.15 at 8:04 pm

#56 Craigster on 03.16.15 at 7:50 pm

Dude, six months ago, flight to Vegas was 1000 bucks for two, today 2000…. Next year probably 3000, sucks to be poor, perhaps that’s why Bill C51 is around, machine wants a heads up as to when to leave Dodge.

#65 AfterTheHouseSold on 03.16.15 at 8:07 pm

#207 response to Broke Dick yesterday

I don’t know if you caught my response to you or not but I hope todays post hits home to you with regards to waiting a year or two before selling.
Regards

#66 waiting on the westcoast on 03.16.15 at 8:07 pm

If they drop rates in Canada again, we will be…. Well, you know…

Inflation will mount as our dollar drops relative to the US. People’s earning power and purchasing power will be eroded in the short-term resulting in progressively more defaults on debt. Sure in the longer run, wages may rise… But short-term, the economy is hooped.

Damned if you do and damned if you don’t…

#67 Greg on 03.16.15 at 8:09 pm

The Canadian dollar is doing reasonably well against the Mexican peso. Us boomers may have to move. The weather’s easy to take… most of the time.

#68 gladiator on 03.16.15 at 8:10 pm

Garth,
why do you keep saying that rates will go higher?
Private-owned as well as public-owned central banks around the world are in a war of lowering rates to make their economies more “competitive”. This has just started and has a long way to go. Raising rates in Canada will only weaken our economy due to a more expensive loonie.
All I see is low rates for a long-long time here. Maybe not so in the US, and I agree – Canada usually follows the US in its rate policy and it would be expected that the rate here will follow the US one, but at least not until the elections. And I’m not even sure after that.

#69 housingnotfall on 03.16.15 at 8:13 pm

A crash is when prices go back 10-15-20 years. Not 2-3 years. If prices fall %25 where would that take us? 3 years back? We’re %50 higher than when people were predicting a crash. So even if we fall %50 the people that predicted a crash will have been wrong lol. The doomers always fail because they don’t understand that the government will inflate the currency beyond any ability for deflation to ever occur. That is why real estate and the stock market are at record highs. Because of trillions printed and hundreds of trillions in derivatives. I’m surprised at the lack of economic knowledge on this blog. Talking about fundamentals, income ratio, debt levels, oil prices. Those mean nothing. If you print enough, everything will go up.

Here is pop quiz for you all. What is the best performing stock market in the past 100 years? That’s right, Zimbabwe. They’re up about %1000000000000000000000000000000000 due to their currency. What good does that to anyone?

#70 Mark on 03.16.15 at 8:15 pm

“So what would make rates go up? If the BoC doesn’t feel it has to match the US Fed then what will force rates to rise? “

Domestic inflation, which will eventually start to occur as the Canadian housing market crashes and comes out of the crash. However, there’s a long, long ways down before this will be an issue.


Can the gov tighten lending and then keep rates low until the outstanding debt concerns pass?

Absolutely. The market is already doing this by raising risk premia on the risky household borrowers. The government’s refusal to expand CMHC subprime mortgage guarantees beyond the $600B (+ ~$300B in re-insurance) is an example of such. Which actually marked the top of the housing market in Canada roughly 2 years ago.


What happens if the US goes up and we don’t?

US would be raising their rates in response to rising domestic inflation, which is likely to accompany a falling USD$.

Rising USD$ rates will not help the USD$. This is where the various traders and pundits have it completely wrong, and are misinterpreting short term actions of speculators unwinding short USD$ trades, as long-term sequelae.

#71 Rate wars in full swing - torontomortgagesite.ca on 03.16.15 at 8:17 pm

Expecting a barrage of mortgage rate promotions to be unleashed on TV and radio. Just saw a new bmo ad on TV tonight. Property Virgins are getting greased up for the kill.

#72 Millenial-falcon on 03.16.15 at 8:18 pm

I feel prepared, prepared to buy a rental property in the 604! Market is hot rite now , house lists Friday, open house sat sun , multiple offers Monday , this is fact, a .25 rate increase in 2017 is not going to change this sorry Garth, this blog is continually wrong about van and will continue to be , this growing city has numerous tailwinds

#73 Boombust on 03.16.15 at 8:18 pm

#45,

Well said…

Harper is a dangerous sociopath and will do anything to stay in power.

#74 james on 03.16.15 at 8:18 pm

#55 Linda

“A sixty cent Canadian dollar only matters if you shop or travel outside of Canada. Prices in Canada are creeping higher so might hurt here too.”

Is this a joke?

Please tell me where most of Canada’s food comes from, given that it has paved over most of its arable land.

That’s right. The USA and Mexico, priced in US dollars.

See the recent articles on how California has one year of water left in its reserves and think about what happens if the currency crashes AND the central valley loses irrigation.

#75 Mak the inestor on 03.16.15 at 8:20 pm

If interest rates dont rise:
1. Dollar will tank.
2. Groceries will sky rocket.
3. Salaries will follow inflation else standard of living will go down.
4. House prices will stay put till inflation catches.

If interest rate goes up:
1. People will default on payments.
2. Housing will crash.
3. Lot of people will go bankrupt.
4. Those with jobs paying tax will carry the burden of the stupid. (Taxes will go up).

The govt has to make the decision. With elections round the corner what would they decide? Any guesses :)

#76 DisgustMadeMePost on 03.16.15 at 8:20 pm

I can see how low rates like these can suck buyers into the vortex. I want to buy a home too and feel this weird pull to get in on the low low rates. I won’t of course, but just saying that the attraction is there. Or maybe i feel a sense of being lured in… What incredibly self serving irresponsible management of this nation. I feel Harper and the BoC are like the tobacco companies. They know it’s bad for you, but they package it up in the most addictive, toxic yet legal format they can conjure and then peddle it to the addicted.

And why am I still paying 120 at the pump?!

#77 waiting on the westcoast on 03.16.15 at 8:21 pm

“#67 housingnotfall on 03.16.15 at 8:13 pm

Trillions printed…”

I get your point but remember there is a vast difference between the US printing dollars as a reserve currency versus Canada doing so. We will become substantively poorer with a smaller holding capacity for our currency globally.

If inflation is pushed as hard as Zimbabwe, there would be a revolution here (well a polite one anyway)…

#78 DisgustMadeMePost on 03.16.15 at 8:25 pm

BoC doesn’t have to drop rates again .. They just have to stay pat when US rates rise and our buck will effectively be lower.

#79 futurerental on 03.16.15 at 8:25 pm

I am currently looking for a rental. Should I try to get a 3 year lease or should I go for a year and renew?
What is likely to happen to rentals rates when the slow correction comes? I suspect getting a long lease might be better now.

Any suggestions/ ideas?

#80 western observer on 03.16.15 at 8:25 pm

Re: #14 Al Pacino

I agree – dollar will go down big time.

Keeps the money in Canada. Too expensive to spend elsewhere.

Houses (not condos) will still go up for 2 reasons:
1-50 cent dollar means lots of foreign buyers
2-Lower rates will keep the locals spending
I see them going even lower.

50 cent dollar makes Alberta oil 50% cheaper

50 cent dollar will entice American businesses to move here.

It all makes sense

#81 Carly in Cabbagetown on 03.16.15 at 8:33 pm

“Seriously. Ream him without the language. – Garth”

You are wrong, Garth, and quite morally in error here as well.

I considered very thoughtfully what is meant when that poster wrote:

“You can thank our activist, teacher premier, more interested in put a wedge in man woman relationships than creating jobs.”

That is, upon reflection, homophobic as well as misogynistic hate speech. It is also untrue, completely, and a perfect example of the ‘ad hominem’ logical fallacy, for which you deleted my comment, ironically.

I trusted that you were erring on the side of edgy free expression, so I called the poster some very relevant, off-colour names in my rebuttal. Nothing horrific, words that have been used here by other – male – posters, many, many, many times.

Edgy free expression, from me. Why not? Fair is fair.

It appears you tolerate that brand of rhetoric mainly from some particularly misogynistic, homophobic male posters here.

Is that really you? Why not ask Dorothy?

Garth, you do not originate the misogyny and homophobia on this blog, but if you are wilfully blind to it, and stifle equal and forceful response to it, then you effectively condone and enable it.

To suggest, as you just did, that my use of minor foul language deserves more condemnation than the hatred that I was responding to is appalling, and deeply disappointing.

Monte McNaughton would be exceedingly comfortable with what you just did.

Why not everyone?

Much better. — Garth

#82 Mister Obvious on 03.16.15 at 8:38 pm

#27 Rainclouds

“Pretty sure Van has hit or is very close to the debt wall [……] and the “street people” aren’t getting the love either.”
—————————

It was fairly warm in today Vancouver (for late winter) but not that warm. I noticed that the shirts have come off a few downtown panhandlers.

They hide their shirts somewhere (yes, they do have shirts and coats) then crouch at the bottom of lamp standards on Robson or Granville streets.

It’s working for them. What heartless skinflint could pass a shivering, shirtless beggar on the sidewalk? It’s getting meaner out there and competition is fierce.

There’s a scene in Monty Python’s “Life of Brian” movie where a marketplace beggar has cut off his own foot for sympathy. Brian sees this and is absolutely appalled. Later, Brian again comes across the same man who has now cut off his other foot. “My business is expanding”, he says.

#83 Bon Ape Tits on 03.16.15 at 8:44 pm

Rich foreigners bump up the average in a neighbourhood, even though they are not the majority buyer. This is a worldwide phenomenon, Canadians do it all over the place.

This is unfortunate as realtor associations use this to their advantage (higher sale price, higher commission) which then affects the majority.

So what can one do ? Nothing. If the majority stopped buying, even for a few months, you could have a price landslide.

Alas, hormones will get the better of most and we march onwards and upwards. Until we don’t.

Bon ape tits.

#84 everythingisterrible on 03.16.15 at 8:44 pm

“It’s not Chinese moneybaggers”
———————————————–
We’ve reached an almost criminal point of misinformation and political correctness. Picture an elephant in the room. This elephant has a large bed sheet poorly covering half it’s body. Most in the room say “hey look it’s an elephant.” Property owners say “no, we can’t be sure it’s an elephant, there’s a bed sheet covering part of it”. Politicians say “we can’t be sure it’s an elephant, we need to study it more”. And developers say “we did a survey and concluded it’s a hamster.”

Pretty good article regarding the current economic landscape of Vancouver from a tech worker if anyone is curious http://bit.ly/1BObiev “this is not about race”

More anti-immigrant moaning. Get over it, already. — Garth

#85 Mo in Montreal on 03.16.15 at 8:45 pm

Lovely blog, great empirical data, sound logic – I am a big fan.

One problem.

We (all of Canada) are about to be PQed.

What do I mean?

Having lived in la Belle Province almost all of my life, trends are apparent to me.

Economy sucks, talk about identity.
Debt levels growing, talk about identity.

163%, yes but Burka bad, Burka bad!

ISYS is helping our government change the focus and the topic.

Just like the PQ always has to talk about something other than the economy, because they suck at it.

And you and I, who manage our money well, will mop up after the dunderheads who can’t manage their wallets…

At least I’ll feel a little less alone here in La Belle Province…

Cheers Canada, welcome to my world!

#86 Carly in Cabbagetown on 03.16.15 at 8:47 pm

Garth, I am serious.

You are still condoning what would be seen by reasonable people as hate speech.

I have not been one to ask for deletions here.

But if you deleted what I said, at least delete those earlier comments.

If not, you are truly enabling and condoning misogyny and homophobia.

Think it over. You are better than this.

My preference? Free speech. Restore my comment and let the storm work itself out.

Why censor only one side?

#87 westcanguy on 03.16.15 at 8:47 pm

#80 Carly in Cabbagetown
____________________________________________

Why not everyone?

Much better. — Garth

____________________________________________

Nothing like throwing some gas on the fire.

#88 Ret on 03.16.15 at 8:49 pm

“The day of reckoning is coming and I don’t want to be here when it does,” was said to me by a southern Ontario CU loans rep, three days ago, when I asked her about her about the indebtedness of mortgage borrowers as she saw it.

She also shared that her CU had no western Canadian mortgage exposure and that Ontario laws did not allow out of province CU loans or mortgages.

I’m thankful that the banks, CU’s etc. only offer cheap loans and do not also offer cheap drugs. Too many Canadians live in a fantasy world and clearly have zero self control.

#89 Millencolly Millenial on 03.16.15 at 8:50 pm

Rates will never rise because all my friends were telling me they can’t. They all have equity they can borrow against you know. They are all investors now….. What’s an ETF??

#90 Interstellar Old Yeller on 03.16.15 at 8:52 pm

#21 Halifax Observer on 03.16.15 at 6:43 pm
This is an unbelievable deal for a great Alberta rig truck. More of these to come for sure.

http://www.kijiji.ca/v-cars-trucks/calgary/lumbersexual-edition-nissan-se-x-terra-suv/1050293800

That was hilarious. I am terrified to see what kind of Google ads I’ll get, now that I’ve clicked on the link, though…

#91 Andrew Woburn on 03.16.15 at 8:56 pm

If you are watching emerging markets, you might want to watch these guys. Just don’t give them your bank account number.

1. The Nigerian manufacturing sector is the fastest growing in the world

2. There are more mobile phone users in Nigeria than there are people in Japan

3. Nigeria is a natural gas powerhouse, with the largest proven reserves in Africa and the 9th largest in the world.

4. Enough new national highways have been paved in recent years to circle half-way around the Earth.

5. Nollywood – Nigeria’s film industry – is the second largest in the world – producing more movies than the US and Japan, combined.

http://www.nigerianext.com/article/5-surprising-facts-about-nigerias-economy/091c495b7af6c0e0199b360fb5804bfc/?

#92 Freedom First on 03.16.15 at 8:58 pm

Canada is truly a wonderful country to live in, and I have been to other countries and other continents and seen 3rd world conditions up close. In Canada, people can enjoy a very nice lifestyle without having to ever borrow a penny to do so. To see the debt levels that Canadians have reached is truly mind boggling. There may be many excuses to pig out at the debt trough but there is not one reason. No exception. Debt=Slavery.

#93 Andrew Woburn on 03.16.15 at 8:58 pm

Canada’s rental unit landscape witnessing a resurgence – The Globe and Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/canadas-rental-unit-landscape-witnessing-a-resurgence/article23465600/

#94 Sergiy on 03.16.15 at 8:58 pm

without CHMC banks would never lend with this level of risk so this buying orgee will continue until it is to late and we all as taxpayers will pay for the consequences

#95 BottomsUp on 03.16.15 at 8:59 pm

Great site and really interesting comments. I sold my property recently and made a bit of cash/money. Real Estate overpricing in this city (#brampton) is out of control.

The plan is to sit on the sidelines and wait this out. The problem is, I am not an economist and really just guessing that the correction to housing is coming. I’ve sold this to my wife but like everyone else, she’s skeptical.

Seems everyone thinks that real estate can only skyrocket.
A few questions:
What’s the likelihood that the BOC does not follow the US Fed and raise rates?

Will the US Fed actually raise rates? This is really unclear to me.

Are there 3,4,5 simple economic factors that the BOC considers before raising or lowering rates? I cannot get get a handle on what the triggers are.

What is the likelihood that the Canadian dollar goes to 70 or under 70 cents to the USD? Has this happened before and was it due to BOC not lowering rates?

Thank you for the great articles.

#96 Bob on 03.16.15 at 9:01 pm

We will soon be the Mexico of the north! Arrribbbaa!

#97 Drill Baby Drill on 03.16.15 at 9:01 pm

Dear Pathetic Blog : could you at some point in the near future explain why the bond market will dictate mortgage rates?

#98 BS on 03.16.15 at 9:04 pm

Interest rates wont rise in Canada anytime soon? Maybe not, but that is just the BoC rate. Mortgage rates are based on bond rates. The BoC has no control over what bond investors will demand in the future. For example if our housing is in correction mode, CMHC is in trouble, Canadian government bonds do not look so attractive. Investors will demand a significant premium over US bonds. We may see QE in Canada if it gets bad.

In addition, if CMHC continues with it’s cap on lending, alternative lending will continue to grow which is a massive rate increase for those that need it (can’t get a mortgage from a bank or do not have a DP). The BoC loses control at some point and their rate policy will not matter for most mortgages.

#99 As Is Old Man on 03.16.15 at 9:06 pm

Dear Hank from yesterday: Great post as have thought the same thing.

#100 ShawnG in TO on 03.16.15 at 9:08 pm

a falling can$ strongly discourages foreign investors.

why buy a house now, when you can buy next year when house price is up 5%, but can$ is down 10%?

buy US is so much better, house price up, us$ up. double the gain

#101 Real Tor on 03.16.15 at 9:09 pm

So what is the big deal if people pile on more debt and the rates stay low indefinitely? Why do the feds need to raise the interest rate?

#102 Mark on 03.16.15 at 9:13 pm

“Are there 3,4,5 simple economic factors that the BOC considers before raising or lowering rates? I cannot get get a handle on what the triggers are.”

BoC policy is pretty simple, despite all the theatrics. Inflation > 2%, or reasonably expected to be >2%, the policy rate rises. Inflation < 2%, and the policy rate drops. This behaviour, so-called "inflation targeting", is basically written into the BoC's mandate.

The BoC dropped rates recently because a) inflation has chronically been running beneath the 2% target, b) the on-going fall in housing prices is pushing a significant amount of deflation into the pipeline, c) currency weakness is expected to be transitory at best, and d) the labour market's condition in Canada implies an output gap so large that you could drive a bus through it.

Since YoY is only around 1%, and monthly CPI changes are actually indicating deflation in Canada, with no evidence of inflationary pressures even building (quite the opposite), additional policy rate cuts in Canada are likely. The only major question is will ZIRP be good enough, or will they have to go into NIRP and QE to combat housing-led deflation.

I know a lot of people are complaining that their stuff, "price in USD$" is getting more expensive. That's partially true and painful for those who negotiated long-term fixed price contracts, but the mistake the complainers make is thinking of USD$ prices as being static. When in fact, they are dynamic, and USD$ prices are in the process of falling considerably, particularly on much of Canada's import basket.

#103 Mark on 03.16.15 at 9:17 pm

“So what is the big deal if people pile on more debt and the rates stay low indefinitely? Why do the feds need to raise the interest rate?”

As consumers become less credit-worthy, rates can stay low, but few consumers will actually qualify to borrow at such rates. Effectively the market implements interest rate hikes on the least credit-worthy of borrowers.

Credit is still way too expensive to the sectors of the Canadian economy that create a lot of sustainable private sector jobs. As there are huge levels of physical and human resources in Canada that are going under-utilized.

#104 Squirrel meat on 03.16.15 at 9:19 pm

I have no idea what you are ever saying Mark, but man are you prolific and intense! One day the internet will corrected.

#105 Andrew Woburn on 03.16.15 at 9:19 pm

I’m not sure I agree with this guy’s estimate of how fast we will see driverless trucks but it is a sobering thought anyway.

– 3.5 Million Jobs Will Vanish

All Trucking comments on the number of Truck Drivers in the USA.

“There are approximately 3.5 million professional truck drivers in the United States, according to estimates by the American Trucking Association. The total number of people employed in the industry, including those in positions that do not entail driving, exceeds 8.7 million. About one of every 15 workers in the country is employed in the trucking business, according to the ATA. These figures indicate that trucking is an exceptionally stable industry that is likely to continue generating jobs in the coming years.”

Trucking will be stable until it crashes hard and millions of jobs vanish overnight. Timeline is sometime in the next 5-6 years, and it could easily be less.

Driverless cabs and Uber will eliminate another 250,000 drivers or so. If you are a paid driver, be prepared to lose your job.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/03/driverless-cars-and-trucks-who-wants.html#HDgk5AHV33xy4h8S.99

#106 Mike L on 03.16.15 at 9:20 pm

#35 ILoveCharts – Will the loonie continue to drop? Trying to decide what to do with my USD.

I traded $60k USD today for 72,200 loonies (@1.27%) at ATB. I’m happy with a 27% exchange rate!

#107 Mike L on 03.16.15 at 9:21 pm

Doh, that should be $76,200 loonies.

#108 Squirrel meat on 03.16.15 at 9:24 pm

#105 Mike L on 03.16.15 at 9:20 pm

#35 ILoveCharts – Will the loonie continue to drop? Trying to decide what to do with my USD.

I traded $60k USD today for 72,200 loonies (@1.27%) at ATB. I’m happy with a 27% exchange rate!
#106 Mike L on 03.16.15 at 9:21 pm

Doh, that should be $76,200 loonies.
—————————————–
A $4k CDN pesos difference.. what’s that? – a head of lettuce?

#109 BlackDog on 03.16.15 at 9:24 pm

@Carly in CabageTown re: #80

Garth’s perception of what are discriminatory and inflammatory comments come from his own biases and personal experiences, as is the case for many of us. He comes down on people who express certain bigoted attitudes that bother him, but is immune to those he neither identifies with, nor empathizes with.

Since it is Garth’s blog he is free to reject or criticize comments that offend his particular views of how the world should be, and accept those that don’t.

I can hear you. — Garth

#110 Drop of Drink on 03.16.15 at 9:32 pm

Interesting blog. No rate hikes, even though they would like to. Leaves them with nothing for the next recession. Janet Yellen’s speech this week will drive the Dow up 500 points.

#111 Godth on 03.16.15 at 9:32 pm

The central banks are acting in coordination and achieving remarkable things. Australia (for ex.) is completely in lockstep with Canada, misery loves company. The boss at the BIS is so proud of the vassals.

Dollar Imperialism, 2015 Edition
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/03/06/dollar-imperialism-2015-edition/

#112 Godth on 03.16.15 at 9:33 pm

Black Mirror
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVIVoDEgfhs

#113 Drill Baby Drill on 03.16.15 at 9:36 pm

Could the BOC actually lose control of the mortgage rates if the demands for much higher premiums on bonds takes hold ? What then happens to the overall economy if the BOC has no hammer?

#114 Smoking Man on 03.16.15 at 9:42 pm

Mark, congratulations, you’ve made my book. Your in good company.

What would an Alien story be with out a droyed, a robot. Hell what backward a spices Nectonites would be with out one.

Your specialty will be serving me coffees, and JD while giving market analysis that I never listen to, I insult you, yet like a perfect robot, you never chirp back, it’s in your programing.

I get the best ideas on this pathetic blog.

#115 BlackDog on 03.16.15 at 9:42 pm

@Smoking Man #25 re: “You can thank our activist teacher premier, more interested in put a wedge in man woman relationships than creating jobs. ”

I’m no fan of Wynne, but that comment was beyond rude. As a female, with a gay 22 year old daughter, struggling to live in a society that still looks down on those who are not in “man woman relatioships”, your words were very offensive.

But what else is new eh? You talk about cheating on your wife like its no big deal, boast about ‘massages’ from girls who are my daughter’s age, and generally come off like an immature, spoiled, sorry example of the male species.

#116 BlackDog on 03.16.15 at 9:45 pm

@Garth re#108 “I can hear you. — Garth”

LOL. I just wanted to make sure.

#117 tundra pete on 03.16.15 at 9:48 pm

The larger the banks mortgage file is, likely the larger the losses to them, should there be any. Somewhat like pie on your face. However, according to the chief dorkonomist at CIBC, we are in for a soft landing.

What is Harper and his motley crew going to do? Doesn’t matter. They will come across as heroes to the sheep any way this cookie crumbles. The irresponsible will get blamed, the savers will pay, and the sheep will be Conned, again. Remember, CMHC protects the lenders.

There is an age old saying that beuracrats love to exploit; “Never let a good crisis go to waste”.

#118 NoOneOfConsequence on 03.16.15 at 9:48 pm

re: Picasso’s grocery list…from yesterday.

I think it was very appropriate that he spends 25% of his budget on pointless crap guaranteed to be bad for him…Rolos and chips.

Same percentage drop coming for housing..no coincidence methinks.

A true Canadian…wasting his money, then justifying his undisciplined behavior!

Way to go eh!

#119 H on 03.16.15 at 9:49 pm

Just Released Ahead of Wednesday Meeting!!!

“The FOMC has judged the recent economic indicators below forecast of members, as such it is the opinion of the FOMC to hold rates at historical lows for some time”

continued

“The FOMC will continue to remain accommodating, monitoring the recent and rapid changes in currencies and commodities”

Continued

“while it is the opinion of the FOMC a certain degree of slack in output will be warranted due o recovery, the recent decline in inflation indicators outside the operating band of target, warrant the FOMC to continue to an accommodative stance with the potential if additional bond purchases as a possible option”

ps we did not take out “patient”

Zing.

#120 Nobleton Bill on 03.16.15 at 9:52 pm

#96 Drill Baby Drill on 03.16.15 at 9:01 pm

Dear Pathetic Blog : could you at some point in the near future explain why the bond market will dictate mortgage rates?

I was asking Garth this weekend about where the 5yr Canadian Bond is bought and sold. I believe it’s ‘stateside’ and for that reason, one should look very closely at taking a fixed rate mortgage NOW, because these rates won’t last. All it takes is one bad employment number from Canada and bond holders will demand a premium.

But Garth has a better way with words. Garth ?

#121 Franco on 03.16.15 at 9:52 pm

By the time rates go up significantly, I will either be very old to care or departed to a nursing home waiting for my demise. So if you want to buy a house, buy it and the payments will be affordable for the next 5 years and perhaps beyond, rates will never rise at the speed they used to in the past, globalization has taken care of that.

#122 Mark on 03.16.15 at 9:54 pm

“Could the BOC actually lose control of the mortgage rates if the demands for much higher premiums on bonds takes hold ? What then happens to the overall economy if the BOC has no hammer?”

The BoC doesn’t purport to control “mortgage rates”, so the question of them ‘losing control’ is a bit nonsensical.

Monetary policy losing its authority tends not to be a good thing, with outcomes either significantly deflationary or significantly inflationary. Neither are particularly good for the economy as it is very difficult for industry and the real economy to allocate capital accordingly. Thus, central bankers are keen to protect their credibility in such matters, lest the ‘rudder’ of monetary policy become unhinged from the traditional policy toolsets.

Having said that, a small portion of the population can make an awfully lot of money during significant monetary instability. But the average person tends to become poorer as they are not able to participate in the instruments or even balanced portfolios that provide meaningful protection.

For instance, the precious metals sector performs very well with either significant deflation or significant inflation (ie: monetary instability). However, if such occurred in Canada, very few could participate as they are in overwhelming debt, and have a disproportionate amount of their wealth tied up in the illiquid and declining asset class of residential real estate.

#123 Franco on 03.16.15 at 9:55 pm

The big problem for us of a low dollar is that we will not be flying to Jamaica, we will have to drive down to Florida and stay at cheap motels.

#124 Brian on 03.16.15 at 9:55 pm

Just a question from a humble observer of this more-complex-than-any-of-us-can-understand post-industrial economy… What happens if the US Fed does not raise interest rates this year?

#125 wallflower on 03.16.15 at 9:57 pm

huh…. that’s interesting… Your comments about smoking man.

#114 BlackDog on 03.16.15 at 9:42 pm
“…generally come off like an immature, spoiled, sorry example of the male species…”

Just wondering, what exactly about your bias makes you think Smoking Man is male?

#126 chris on 03.16.15 at 9:57 pm

Cannot help but think who would want to live in a country where necessities like houses and lettuces are becoming more and more unaffordable. It is a sad reality facing Canadians. Now the brain drain starts again.

#127 Smoking Man on 03.16.15 at 9:57 pm

#114 BlackDog on 03.16.15 at 9:42 pm
@Smoking Man #25 re: “You can thank our activist teacher premier, more interested in put a wedge in man woman relationships than creating jobs. ”
I’m no fan of Wynne, but that comment was beyond rude. As a female, with a gay 22 year old daughter, struggling to live in a society that still looks down on those who are not in “man woman relatioships”, your words were very offensive.
But what else is new eh? You talk about cheating on your wife like its no big deal, boast about ‘massages’ from girls who are my daughter’s age, and generally come off like an immature, spoiled, sorry example of the male species.
………

I respect you black dog, are my amazing writing skills so superior that you can’t see the difference between Fiction and reality, my wife reads this pathetic blog sometimes, laughed her head of at my mischief.

However, have succumb to the Wynneflouence.

Some guys are dick heads, some Chic’s are bitches.

All in all the rest of us are cool.

But her rainbow coloured glasses, she only sees one side, I sence she’s an anti-menite.

I trust if some dude messes with your daughter, I hope you’ve taught her how to shoot.

Word Smith Dr Smoking Man.

#128 The real Kip on 03.16.15 at 9:59 pm

BoC will lower interest rates again before the federal election in October. This government cares about nothing except re-election.

#129 Mukadi on 03.16.15 at 10:05 pm

“Gravity is already and very inconveniently inserting itself into Canada’s incredible housing boom.”

This Wolf is damn WRONG.

Canadian politicians are semi-gods that can challenge the laws of physics….

The Bank of Canada should continue printing “Wealth” like the Federal Reserve until the external reaches at least 1000 * GDP!!!

#130 cd on 03.16.15 at 10:10 pm

the loonie will continue to drop as will oil… the don’t catch a falling knife scenario. A 60 cent loonie is a tough prediction; definitely 75 this or next week, and possibly 70 next month.

as for the canadian financial situation, most canadians don’t realize how good we’ve had it over the years. Our prosperity has allowed us to become very lazy in many areas… like innovation, efficiency, education. Also since everything is ultra globalized nowadays, its tougher and tougher to attract corporations to invest for certain types of jobs. manufacturing is a tough sell right now in ontario, and I’m not too sure about services either (since the euro is down a fair bit a well).

Harper will try to stay in as long as he can, so then rates will not go up for a while. poloz wants to repair his rate cut misfire and try to prove that he’s in charge so he won’t touch them only in an extreme situation.

#131 rawdiswar on 03.16.15 at 10:14 pm

So the BoC is stuck between raising rates, which will hurt many with higher debt servicing costs, and keeping the overnight rate low which possibly lower the CDN when the Fed raises. Why won’t Poloz raise rates slowly, with a reasonable amount of time between hikes so the market can respond? Surely a quarter point every few months wouldn’t tank the indebted sheeple?

#132 Uncle Stephen on 03.16.15 at 10:14 pm

Garth,

First off – I’m not a doomer and think they’re generally nutso. However, I read David Stockman’s book, The Great Deformation. This book teeters on doomer themes, but is written by a seemingly reasonable and smart man who served in the Regan administration. Have you read his book and/or what do you think of him and his thesis?

#133 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.16.15 at 10:15 pm

Poor, poor Carly.

“Misogyny” and “hate speech”? Seriously, I read neither.

And yet, if I did, I could make the choice to scroll past….

Poor Dear Who Must Not Be Offended.

#134 Will on 03.16.15 at 10:17 pm

To all that think were heading for a $.50 dollar, I don’t think it’s likely. You can’t win at competitive devaluation, other countries will work to devalue just as fast and in the end it won’t help much. It won’t benefit manufacturing very much either, factories are so automated these days that even if some factories did re-open in the east they would probably employ 25% of the people they once did. The USD will also turn out to be overbought, and will slide back some.

#135 Nemesis on 03.16.15 at 10:20 pm

…”…you have to become a customer of an unknown mortgage outfit some guy runs out of the trunk of his Cordoba.” – HonGT

#ObligatoryChryslerCordoba… #GenuineCorinthianLeather… #MortgageBrokerRicardoMontalbánHomage…

https://youtu.be/tfKHBB4vt4c

#WorthNoting… #InTheEnd… #Ricardo’sMortgageBook… #BlewUP… #AndHeDidn’tGetTheGirlEither…

https://youtu.be/v7WlyuI7xGI

#136 aL pacino on 03.16.15 at 10:21 pm

If you bloggers think you’ve seen HAM, you just wait now till beaver loonie go to 70c.
Just drove on west 41st and cambie…..SOLD signs are EVERYWHERE.
Garth, give yourself and all of us a break with your ,there is no evidence, line.
Even you know what’s going on here.
And all your lines about poodelnomics and goofs in ottawa, guess what ,they knew this was going to happen.
70% canadian’s net worth is now higher.
THE END.

#137 CalgaryRocks on 03.16.15 at 10:22 pm

#114 BlackDog on 03.16.15 at 9:42 pm
“…generally come off like an immature, spoiled, sorry example of the male species…”

I’m offended too. This sounds like hate speech against males.

Replace ‘male’ with any other group and you will see how abject and hateful this comment really is.

#138 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.16.15 at 10:23 pm

#114 Black Dog

Want me to call you a Whammmmmmmmbulance? I have a daughter of 25 years who is a lesbian as well. I’m about as tolerant as a person gets. That said, Kathy Wynne needs to focus on the goddamnn big job of governing this province instead of pushing an agenda.

We’re in trouble here. The social issues won’t matter one little f*#k if we’re broke.

#139 Smoking Man on 03.16.15 at 10:27 pm

DELETED (Sexual depravity)

#140 Confusedh on 03.16.15 at 10:30 pm

But I thought 5 year fixed rates were connected to the Bond Market and there were not connected to the Bank of Canada rate. Have things changed?

#141 45north on 03.16.15 at 10:30 pm

Households can no longer afford higher rates.

so there is no wiggle room left. none.

But, rates will go up. And houses down. Madani is sticking with his prediction of a 25% price decline nationally – which will mean a lot more in you-know-where.

Alberta

Halifax Observer: 2000 Nissan SE X-Terra, originally $73,999 now $1575. Not bad for a 15-year-old-vehicle!

IM in C: The political party that allows a house-a-geddon to occur on their watch will find themselves out of power for the next generation.

that’s what everyone thinks, that’s why Poloz lowered the interest rate 0.25%. Or a government could raise interest rates 1% to cool-off the housing market, reduce the debt load and increase the savings rate. Oh and boost the Canadian dollar to 0.90 US.

james: Please tell me where most of Canada’s food comes from, given that it has paved over most of its arable land.

That’s right. The USA and Mexico, priced in US dollars.

See the recent articles on how California has one year of water left in its reserves and think about what happens if the currency crashes AND the central valley loses irrigation.

so Americans bid up the price of food and we have to match their bid in US dollars

futurerental: I am currently looking for a rental. Should I try to get a 3 year lease or should I go for a year and renew?
What is likely to happen to rentals rates when the slow correction comes? I suspect getting a long lease might be better now.

you mean you will be the tenant? You’re overthinking this. Standard lease is 1 year. Standard practice after a year is to renew on a month-to-month basis. Go with the standard. After a year and you really love the place you could ask for a two-year lease.

#142 Bo Xilai on 03.16.15 at 10:35 pm

There should be a federal law which says banks are only allowed to make the same volume of mortgage loans as they do of small business loans. And they have to charge the same average interest rate. Then Canada would have a heck of a healthier economy… We wonder why so few small businesses are creating jobs when the reality is that real estate is sucking up all available capital in the country.

#143 Andrew Woburn on 03.16.15 at 10:40 pm

165 Chris in Nanaimo on 03.16.15 at 12:18 am
#66 Andrew Woburn. ‘I’m not even sure we have beggars her as I have never seen one’
Take a walk down Commercial street…
================

I’m sure your right. Maybe they’re so laid back I haven’t really noticed.

One summer day in Vancouver, maybe 15 years ago, I decided to walk from English Bay to downtown. I started counting how many times I was asked for spare change along the way. I was up to 46 by the time I got to Georgia and Granville.

Even as late as the early Eighties few Canadians would have believed that it would become commonplace to meet beggars on the street. Probably more to come unfortunately.

#144 Ontario's Left Coast on 03.16.15 at 10:41 pm

Carly, so you’re wondering why Garth deleted you but not Smokey… It’s simple math, my friend. You are a virtual unknown on this blog and you’re up against a true Goliath.

Garth knows what side his bread’s buttered on. After all, Smokey has a total of nine whole fans here! For gosh sakes, he’s got the delusional drunk vote all locked up! You’re simply going to have to do better…

#145 Bill Gable on 03.16.15 at 10:46 pm

The astonishing stupidity of the BOC is matched by that of the CEO of any bank that cuts Mortgage Rates, just as this whole construct implodes.

The collateral damage is going to be horrible.

The cratering Canadian Dollar is easy to process. Check the food bill.

California is 300 days from a no ‘water’ apocalypse – and so you can imagine the food prices, if that should occur.
This all happens at the same time a lot of leveraged people are stretched to the edges.

I look forward to seeing what the people on the street are feeling in Europe. Heading there in June. I will be checking in from Rome and Paris, and of course, I booked and ISIS is now talking about creating havoc in Paris and Rome.

Ain’t life grand?

#146 Mike L on 03.16.15 at 10:48 pm

#107 Squirrel meat- A $4k CDN pesos difference.. what’s that? – a head of lettuce?

I sure hope not, did Canada get that expensive in the past 7 years we have been away?

I’ve gotten used to $2.50 beers, $10 T-Bone steak dinners and $2/gal gas!

More than likely the money will be going into the ATB Balanced Mutual Fund though…

#147 bigtown on 03.16.15 at 10:49 pm

GLOBE AND MAIL in buisness section has an article on RENTAL MARKET IS SIZZLING in Canada…even condo king Brad Lamb pipes in: selling the Bronson in Ottawa a condo project to an investor looking for a rental bldg. Rio Canada has now embraced rentals instead of RETAIL (ha ha Target) adding IT’S A NO BRAINER from CEO Ed Sunshine.

Now we know why Canada is a slow growth dead weight next to the Americans…we have had decades of under 2% rental vacancy in Canadian cities and eight years of 0% borrrowing costs for pension funds etc. and only now do they wake up to the idea to develop rentals. If all of Canada’s business and investors are like these sorry excuse for rental developers is it no wonder we have on the shelf Blackberry? Oil we are unable to ship to our best friend. CRTC trying to tell us what to watch. Being politically correct costs you big time.

#148 Effluence greasy on 03.16.15 at 10:52 pm

When did this blog turn into daytime television? Did I miss the vote on a format change?

#149 Kris on 03.16.15 at 10:57 pm

This is why the Bank of Canada’s No.2 person told MPs a few days ago our central bank would not necessarily move in lockstep with the US Fed
—————————————————

The govt always finds a way to cover for the largest voting block, i.e., the indebted.

The last few years I’ve been a contrarian and resisted big debt.. But time and again events have proved, what’s the point being a contrarian when the govt is playing on the same team as the herd.. and keeps moving the goalposts to protect the herd from their own stupidity?

#150 West Vanner on 03.16.15 at 11:00 pm

Rates will never rise.

#151 Squirrel meat on 03.16.15 at 11:01 pm

#138 Smoking Man on 03.16.15 at 10:27 pm

DELETED (Sexual depravity)
——————————————
A step up from the run-of-the-mill vulgar to depraved!

#152 Ole Doberman on 03.16.15 at 11:06 pm

Gartho of Hippo – banks follow models to avoid risk so why are they not seeing the risk of lower and lower rates??

Maybe they have something up their sleeve to save the economy, something that’s never been done before or somthin.

Just getting tired of this, it’s always the same and house prices have been defying gravity for a decade.

#153 aL Pacino on 03.16.15 at 11:07 pm

What would the number 1 asset you’d want to hold in a a country such as Canada????
Please tell me there is one which doesn’t start with R.

#154 45north on 03.16.15 at 11:09 pm

on electricity distribution in Ontario:

Blais argues that if there was ever a time that Hydro Ottawa and Hydro One could come to a deal, this is it. The municipal utility wants the customers, and the province wants revenue.

http://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/0317-col-chianello

this is a once-in-a-hundred-years moment when I agree with Chianello. “The municipal utility wants the customers, and the province wants revenue.” The counter-argument is that electricity distribution in rural Ontario is not that profitable. So why would anybody buy it except to raise the electricity rates and squeeze out a bit of profit?

What the hell is going on? If Ontario is to compete with the US, it needs a well-run and efficient electrical plant. Wynne doesn’t know how to do that and she doesn’t want to.

#155 Smoking Man on 03.16.15 at 11:10 pm

I have two wee dogs, Sophie, polite perfect female, she loves to show off her milk bone, clamps it in her mouth, climbs on top of my, lifts my glasses with her nose and pushes the milk bone in my eye, make sure I see it..

Reminds me of female humans, look at my Granet, and stainless appliances.

Now there’s Wyatt, my new autistic male puppy. He’s not like that. I love eating chettos, those orange puffs of pleasure.

Because my teeth are rotting due to smoking, gaps everywhere, I suck on them to evaporated em, don’t want to pick orange out of my teeth.

Wyatt out of no where, attacks, he gets the chetto hanging outside my mouth every time. He craps and whizzes in my house everyday.

He’s a male….

Sort of like humanity…

Love my dogs..

#156 Smoking Man on 03.16.15 at 11:14 pm

#138 Smoking Man on 03.16.15 at 10:27 pm
DELETED (Sexual depravity)
…..

What, who doesn’t love a submarine sandwhich..

#157 nonplused on 03.16.15 at 11:16 pm

“rates will never rise”… click click click.

Damn these shoes are uncomfortable. Nice color though.

#158 DreamingInTechniColour on 03.16.15 at 11:30 pm

And, by the way, BMO’s monthly banking fees for the customers are rising – looks like everyone who banks there is “helping out” with their hard earned cash $$. Shameless.

#159 Obvious Truth on 03.16.15 at 11:32 pm

#151 aL Pacino

usd

First you get the money. Then when …….

You know the rest tony; I mean aL.

#160 the Jaguar on 03.16.15 at 11:32 pm

‘Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it”.
Seems like that old saying fits nicely here when it comes to the eventual increase in interest rates. My recollection is long term mortgage rates are set by the bond market which reacts to US economic factors. Some of the younger blog dogs might not even believe how high mortgage rates were at one time. Nobody saw that coming just like nobody seems to have seen the price of oil drop to its current low level. We haven’t seen the full measure of it yet. People can survive on their credit cards and credit lines for awhile, hoping the situation might turn around and they will get their jobs back. Things fall apart, though. I figure it will all become quite transparent around June/July.

#161 western observer on 03.16.15 at 11:33 pm

Carly = misandrist

#162 mayhem on 03.16.15 at 11:45 pm

“the distortion and mayhem near-zero rates are causing”

———————

“the distortion of near-zero rates”… oh the horror, the distortion… Who is to say what rate is “distortion”?

But first things first: “distortion” of what?

#163 wes coast on 03.16.15 at 11:47 pm

Its different here in Canada. We are well known for our superior climate. This alone justifies million dollar homes in a country with population density is in the same ball park as Antarctica.

Even when I pretend to be a bull its unsustainable, and a bearish sentiment comes over me. Must be the 9 months of cloud and rain wearing on me.

#164 Lobster Man on 03.16.15 at 11:58 pm

#135 al pacino:

along West 41st and Cambie, what you saw were blocks of “sold” signs – apparently attributed to developers attempting to apply for rezoning (from SF to MF dwellings). Multi-storey buildings are going to replace these SFH. The developers are all LOCAL. This has been happening along the Cambie Corridor, especially in the vicinity of the Canada Line Stations (West 41st and Cambie being a major one). The developers have to purchase a whole row of bungalows, in order to build his condo/retail hi-rise buildings. Take a look at a whole row of these “sold” signs – they were by the same RE agent! It is probably true that the developers are speculating on the arrival of the HAM. But I do not believe that these houses were purchased by foreign money or HAM, for that matter.

A couple of blocks away from these “to-be-rezoned” gems, houses have NOT been snapped up in the manner that the RE industry would want you to believe. Newish houses stayed on the market for MONTHS, and some remained unsold, and were de-listed. The asking prices of these newish houses were very high, relative to their assessment values (July 2014). I was told that these sellers wanted to take advantage of loonie’s lower exchange rates!

And within these same areas where rezoning is not likely going to happen in at least a decade or so, the only houses that got sold were the “old-timers”, older bungalows that were ready to be torn down. And local builders have been the true buyers. I guess they are also waiting for the HAM?

#165 there are no job creators on 03.17.15 at 12:02 am

“We wonder why so few small businesses are creating jobs ”

=========

Let’s repeat… there is no such thing as “job creation”.

Business buys labor as needed on the labor market.

Buying labor is like buying electricity for your business.

Try claiming that by buying electricity, you are “creating electricity”.

The idea that buying labor is “job creation” is ideological justification for corporate welfare programs, administered by corrupt politicians, buying votes from the stupid public, paid by taxes.

#166 Gord on 03.17.15 at 12:03 am

After 7-8 years of saying, “this is it” Garth you may finally be right…then again, maybe it’ll keep going. Gonna have to send you another email, me and the resident love goddess finally took the plunge.

#167 Obvious Truth on 03.17.15 at 12:10 am

Just wondering.

Where did all the Saudi Arabia hates Putin, rig count, emergency OPEC meeting, cars in china, chart breakout oil guys go?

#168 BlackDog on 03.17.15 at 12:20 am

@Wallflower #124 re: “huh…. that’s interesting… Your comments about smoking man. Just wondering, what exactly about your bias makes you think Smoking Man is male? ”

WTF? (sorry Garth). Seriously?

#169 Larry1 on 03.17.15 at 12:22 am

Is there a Canadian housing bubble’s equivalent to Prem Watsa’s Credit Default Swap (CDS) bet on the US housing bubble?

#170 to #139 Confusedh on 03.17.15 at 12:28 am

#139 Confusedh on 03.16.15 at 10:30 pm
But I thought 5 year fixed rates were connected to the Bond Market and there were not connected to the Bank of Canada rate. Have things changed?

AMIGO: THE RULES ARE SIMPLE. we lie, cheat, deceit and you suck up the losses. Read more on the fractional reserve, if I am not wrong (no one is touching this subject, even Garth) modern institutions can borrow 1 Billion on the bond market at 5% and LEND 10 billion or even 100 billion with a bit of money velocity/creativity (as much as people CAN get in debt) on the mortgage market for a rate of 0.05% a year and still be profitable. I think it’s not called the debt balloon for nothing….. so, 2.75% it’s actually a huge rate.

Dig more and let us know what you’ve found….

#171 BlackDog on 03.17.15 at 12:33 am

@Bytor The Snow Dog

re: #113
” Poor, poor Carly.
“Misogyny” and “hate speech”? Seriously, I read neither.
And yet, if I did, I could make the choice to scroll past….
Poor Dear Who Must Not Be Offended.”

AND
re: #137
” Want me to call you a Whammmmmmmmbulance? I have a daughter of 25 years who is a lesbian as well. I’m about as tolerant as a person gets. That said, Kathy Wynne needs to focus on the goddamnn big job of governing this province instead of pushing an agenda.
We’re in trouble here. The social issues won’t matter one little f*#k if we’re broke.”

There is a difference between making homophobic statements, and discussing economic and social agenda. Shame on you for confounding them.

#172 Plex on 03.17.15 at 12:42 am

Garth,

It will take the U.S two (consecutive?) rate rises, they will soon see the downhill tumble, then talks of QE4.

What is good about the U.S, they’re filthy garbage at the top of the filthy garbage pile that the rest of the world is. When it comes to everywhere being filthy garbage, the top is the best place to be. But you still stink.

I’m sure you follow (U.S) dollar index charts, even the FED expressed concerns over the DXY when it was 95. QE4 will be a roaring fountain, hyper-explosion, ultra abundant, almost never ending quantity of easing spewing out the St. Andreas Fault.

That ain’t DOOM preaching, that will be life.

Top of the pile Garth, just look at what the pile is. Nothing is good.

Long term outlook, the global economies will get better and better. Before long term, block your nose and breath through your mouth.

#173 BlackDog on 03.17.15 at 12:45 am

@SmokingMan #153,

re: ” Because my teeth are rotting due to smoking, gaps everywhere, I suck on them to evaporated em, don’t want to pick orange out of my teeth.”

It’s called periodontitis (one of my careers was as an RDH), and is nothing to laugh at. No wonder you have to pay to be with women who actually have teeth.

#174 Tipler on 03.17.15 at 12:49 am

” Too big to fail ” – that’s a guarantee you can take to the bank. Would really serious correction happen there would be need for bail outs just like in the USA. Historically majority of all housing booms end in recession. Nothing will happen before election and after election if something happened there would be help from the government.

#175 BlackDog on 03.17.15 at 12:52 am

@SM, smoking is really bad for perio, but if you want to keep your teeth, and cannot stop smoking, you really must see your Registered Dental Hygienist at least every 3 months, so that you have a hope and hell of keeping whatever teeth you have left. Once your teeth are gone, your whole face falls in, and basically, you just get older faster. Teeth are everything man, don’t lose them.

Having said that, since you are privileged and all, best bet to replace a lost tooth from perio (presuming you have the bone to support it) is tooth implants.

#176 BlackDog on 03.17.15 at 12:54 am

SmokingMan, As those teeth fall out, the bone that used to support them, is rotting also. Yuck…you are a walking, decaying man.

#177 BlackDog on 03.17.15 at 1:15 am

I just realized how awful my last comment sounded, clowded by my anti-SM meme.

Seriously dawgs, oral health is something most of us do not pay enough attention to, yet no one can have a happy retirement without it. Brush twice a day, floss (and learn how to do it properly), and no $hit (I promise) you will add years on to your life.

#178 Chris in Nanaimo on 03.17.15 at 1:15 am

#142 Andrew Woburn….”I’m sure your right. Maybe they’re so laid back I haven’t really noticed.”

I’ve noticed them just in the last couple of months. Folks sat on the ground, begging hat out. Not even looking at passersby, looking utterly miserable. Only 2 or 3 mind you, but they seem to be new. We also seem to be getting more panhandlers at road junctions as well?

Nothing compared to the hell hole of East Hastings in Vancouver, but ive been in Nanaimo for a decade now, and don’t remember seeing this sort of thing on a consistent basis.

#179 BS on 03.17.15 at 1:18 am

135

If you bloggers think you’ve seen HAM, you just wait now till beaver loonie go to 70c. Just drove on west 41st and cambie…..SOLD signs are EVERYWHERE. Garth, give yourself and all of us a break with your ,there is no evidence, line. Even you know what’s going on here.

Well I know what is going on at 41st and Cambie (which is Oakridge Mall). Like most of the Cambie corridor the SF houses have been rezoned for multi family after the Canada Line was put in. The houses have been bought by developers and are slated to be torn down to turn them into townhouses and low rise condos. Nothing to do with HAM. Those new townhouses and condos will be bought by locals. Do you even have a clue?

http://www.vancourier.com/news/cambie-corridor-faces-its-future-1.1192841

#180 Beelzebub, Chief of Inter Affairs on 03.17.15 at 1:24 am

Dear soon to be extinct inhabitants of planet Earth.

Firstly, do not expect a rescue from the Brotherhood of Planets because you have never paid taxes and you represent no threat or advantage to us. You can go peacefully to extinction and we will not even know or care.

So why do write this letter? We are obliged to respond to interstellar communications and as of late your “internet” has been spamming one of our inter spacial posts with noise. The IT department refuses to correct the situation because they do not believe you will be transmitting for long.

We observed an earlier “movie” as you call them, strangely titled “Dr. Strangeglove”, which we didn’t find funny but observed a truth realized on many planets that nuclear powers cannot go to war or total destruction would result.

The Armageddon machine envisioned in the movie exists in many of what you call countries already. They are not missiles, which you foolishly believe a bunker can save you from. Which they may, for a time.

Instead the treat is your nuclear power plants and their spent fuel. Any breakdown in the structures that maintain those plants whether by nuclear war or economic collapse will end life on your planet.

The bombs are a problem, but what happens to the plants storing the nuclear material is a life on earth ending phenomena that we think you are completely failing to address.

This is why we don’t visit. In our estimation you won’t be around long.

We have received communications about something called “Fukashima”, and the results. Well imagine if all 400 of your nuclear storage sites were similarly damaged by your nuclear warheads.

Bye bye planet earth and it’s inhabitants.

#181 Leo Trollstoy on 03.17.15 at 1:28 am

Notice how quiet the goldbugs are? They’re too busy licking their bleeding wounds. More of the same coming soon. Especially once the Fed raises and the USD goes through the roof.

#182 Babblemaster on 03.17.15 at 1:29 am

“But, rates will go eventually go up.” – Garth

—————————————————-

I listened to Janet Yellen, the oracle of the Fed, on Wednesday. She just spoke nonsense. She basicly said that rates may go up, or they may not go up. The whole system is so stupid. It’s been obvious for quite a while now that these CB heads just talk the game. They are loathe to actually raise rates. They just chatter on endlessly about raising them.They know that if they ever did it would destroy the housing market and the bloated stock market. No government is going to do that.

#183 Babblemaster on 03.17.15 at 1:32 am

What? I meant to say she will speak nonsense as she has before.

#184 Rexx Rock on 03.17.15 at 1:34 am

The real tragedy is the Canadian people.For the BOC and our government knowing full well implementing a policy that will indebt its people,devalue its currency and create an implosion of our economy is evil.Is it time to move to a country that cares about its people, instead of trying to destroy them?

#185 Ulsterman on 03.17.15 at 1:46 am

Mark, I didn’t understand this part of your post:

What happens if the US goes up and we don’t?

US would be raising their rates in response to rising domestic inflation, which is likely to accompany a falling USD$.
Rising USD$ rates will not help the USD$. This is where the various traders and pundits have it completely wrong, and are misinterpreting short term actions of speculators unwinding short USD$ trades, as long-term sequelae.

Why won’t rising rates help the USD? Are there that many traders STILL short the USD that closing their positions is a significant upwards push on the rate? I have about 70% of my assets in USD and have procrastinated in moving the remainder from CAD to USD – of course kicking myself for not acting a year ago. Do you think it’s too late to jump aboard?

#186 Scully on 03.17.15 at 1:59 am

Black dog, I am a woman with a little girl and I like Smoking Man’s crazy comments because they highlight that “racism, [sexism, misogyny, etc,] feeds on dumb conformity, as much as rabid bigotry.” He likes to wake up the herd. Ruffle a few feathers and get people talking. That’s a good thing. He says so. He likes it when he gets us to chirp. It’s all good, and when it’s not he gets deleted. ;)
PS Old Smokey might not like who I quoted :)

#187 Adriano on 03.17.15 at 2:41 am

I heard this wisdom somewhere…

“Bubbles are funny things. They make you look stupid before they pop (ie. if you don’t join the herd), or stupid after they pop (ie. if you didn’t cash out in time)”.

Pretty much nails it.

#188 Vanecdotal on 03.17.15 at 3:37 am

#97 BS

+1

“In addition, if CMHC continues with it’s cap on lending, alternative lending will continue to grow which is a massive rate increase for those that need it (can’t get a mortgage from a bank or do not have a DP). The BoC loses control at some point and their rate policy will not matter for most mortgages.”

Dammed if they lower the cap, dammed if the leave it the same, dammed if they raise it. What a pickle.

What many may not realize is that there is a middle ground somewhere between the extremes of the policy machine and the sky-is-falling doomers, where the Laws of Nature will play out as they always have, and always will REGARDLESS of policy attempts to solve the problems at hand. This is true whether one is on the bear side or bull side of the coin.

We can pontificate the future until the cows come home but one truism I have learned in life is that the middle is usually where the truth lies… and in this case as Nature takes her course and reverts to the mean it will likely happen in a scenario that few have even considered yet, despite all well-intended, (or ill intended) efforts to either continue the destructive status quo, or correct the mistake.

The hubris I see all around regarding this bull run in RE is disheartening. So many are about to be thrown under the bus, then the finger pointing will begin as “no one saw it coming”. Thanks for the blog GT, it is a worthwhile service you freely provide. Or maybe you’re just a masochist.

The peasants are getting restless.

#189 juno on 03.17.15 at 4:07 am

#74 Mak the inestor on 03.16.15 at 8:20 pm

Garth knows, the government won’t raise rate in an election year. They know the bottom is about to fall. But are gutless to be the bearers of bad news.

Government is not here to help the people they are here to help themselves and their buddies. The name of the game is to stay in power.

That is why they will keep on inflating until they no longer can’t. Then they will simply say. OMG we never seen that coming.

Don’t you think the US higher ups didn’t see the bubble. Goldman sac surely did and played the game on both sides, knowing they will come out shining in the end….Which is exactly what they did.

#190 LP on 03.17.15 at 4:30 am

#115 BlackDog on 03.16.15 at 9:45 pm
@Garth re#108 “I can hear you. — Garth”

LOL. I just wanted to make sure.
*******************

There’s a big difference between hearing and listening.

#191 Freedom First on 03.17.15 at 4:38 am

#126 Smoking Man

As one of your legions of fans, who has been reading your convo with the black dog, et al, I have a confession to make. Even though I am well aware that you are not real, for the years I have been reading your posts I am also aware that there is a lot of stuff that you write that I agree with. And some of it may not even be politically correct. But then again, the truth is often offensive to the brainwashed. Garth proves this to be true every time he updates us on the volumes of hate mail he receives on a regular basis. Relax everybody, I appreciate Garth’s Blog, but I only have sex with women.

#192 drydock on 03.17.15 at 4:49 am

#85 Carly in Cabbagetown on 03.16.15 at 8:47 pm

Check out 4chan Carly , it’s a perfect example of no moderation anything goes.

#193 drydock on 03.17.15 at 5:25 am

QE4 just outside the door.

#194 Ray Vaqsquez on 03.17.15 at 6:36 am

To Franco #120

Low interest rates are not going to help people keep their house or make it affordable.

Many people make the mistake or are real estate delusional that they can afford it today or in 5 years the monthly mortgage payment.

It is all the property taxes, electricity, heating, water bills and garbage fees, repairs and maintenance, H.S.T. on all that plus annual increases on top of all this year after year.

Don’t forget the rising cost of living from food, clothing to gas in your car, car insurance, repairs and maintenance, car monthly payments, H.S.T on top of all this etc. etc.

This is not even talking about consumer debt from credit cards to car loans that is getting close to $30,000 for each Canadian.

Taxes of all types are going up and new ones are coming folks!

Let’s see in the next 10, 15, 20 years if your real estate is going to be so affordable, costing you $4,000, $5,000, $6,000 every month.

All globalization did is make you delusional people pay 2, 3 times upfront for a house, property in just the last 10, 15 years and you thought you are getting ahead financially.

Land transfer taxes, H.S.T, development fees, real estate commissions and other closing costs is just putting more fuel to the fire.

Good luck with all this, guys!

#195 charles on 03.17.15 at 7:23 am

@ #179 Leo Trollstoy on 03.17.15 at 1:28 am
“Notice how quiet the goldbugs are? ”
All PM investors I know are quietly stacking. Rock collections are gaining in popularity.

#196 Tudor on 03.17.15 at 7:25 am

I don’t know if you guys have seen this BNN vid yet:
http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=571036&hootPostID=4b547d419d647ecdb6dda5d243d5e39c&utm_content=buffer63463&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

“15-20% of insured mortgages have sub-700 credit scores. I don’t think there’s anywhere [else] in the world…where a..borrower with that credit profile can get that kind of mtg at that rate” (via CanadianMortgageTrends)

#197 X on 03.17.15 at 7:51 am

Most people are financial idiots, they think rates matter more than employment numbers in regards to buying, they only see the current monthly payment.

These are the same people with their TFSA’s stuffed with a ‘high yield’ savings account. What do you expect?

The low BoC rates are more about an upcoming election than anything.

The gov’t is collectively supposed to help/protect the public, even if it is from their own stupidity.

#198 Julia on 03.17.15 at 7:53 am

#194 Tudor

“15-20% of insured mortgages have sub-700 credit scores. I don’t think there’s anywhere [else] in the world…where a..borrower with that credit profile can get that kind of mtg at that rate” (via CanadianMortgageTrends)”

Yep. For high ratio mortgages (90.01-95%) CMHC only requires a minimum score of 610.
They will also ensure for lower lending ratios with scores as low as 580.

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/hoficlincl/moloin/hopr/upload/CMHC_Quick_Reference.pdf

#199 earthling on 03.17.15 at 7:56 am

Dear Intergalactic Beelzebub,

As a result of poor interplanetary signals, you got it all wrong. Please upgrade technicals ASAP. Planet destroying nuclear radiation is a trivial matter in comparison to our greatest threat – global warming.

Global Warming Alert for Eastern Canada and USA :

UNDER (less than ) 6 feet of snowfall expected for the month of April, 2015. Take all precautions necessary.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MoYrxmxFnio

#200 Linda on 03.17.15 at 8:11 am

James – never said costs would not rise here. As for food, Canada imports the exotics in bulk but Canada can grow most of the goods now being imported, at a higher cost natch. Plus, Canada has fresh water & as for paving over all the arable land, not. Second largest country in the world by land mass, 35 million population concentrated in major cities for the most part.

Speaking of major cities, don’t know where you live but community gardens, growing local etc. big where I am. So much produce from a few strips of unused city land along highways that even the food banks can’t use it all. Thanks to plant breeders, can grow apples, plums & even cherries in Calgary (check out cherries for the prairies – the ‘Romance’ series bred by the University of Sask).

#201 Julia on 03.17.15 at 8:16 am

#195 X

Worse, I have talked to people who make purchasing and financing decisions based on estimates future salary increases…

#202 charles on 03.17.15 at 8:28 am

Oh and Leo @179, if our gracious host will allow me to say, the mainstreams view of finances have been obscured by the billowing dust of demolished buildings and the fog of perpetual war. For those who still know what real money is the ups and downs of the ponzi are not what will prevail.

#203 Londoner on 03.17.15 at 8:45 am

“Or you can post a comment below saying rates will never rise. That’ll protect you.”

Saying rates have nowhere to go but up won’t protect you either.

So the people at the US Fed know what they’re doing but the BoC are run by a bunch of goofs? Show your bias much? Just because the Fed is doing what you perceive is right, and the BoC is not.

With the abundance of negative economic data coming out of the US, I suspect they’ve lost June. Given they are data dependent and there’s been no data, apart from jobs, to support it. Most likely the rate hike will be deferred to Sep, with slight wording changes on guidance for now. I guess we’ll have to wait to see what they say tomorrow.

You seem to think the US Fed is taking a time based approach rather then a data based approach. This kind of analysis is what leads you to be consistently wrong. As such, your calls for a rate hike in June appear to be par for the course.

It could be June. It could be September. But it’s coming. — Garth

#204 Kris on 03.17.15 at 9:05 am

Garth, not many days ago, you called for rate increases in Canada to keep abreast of US rates. I posed the question, why is Canada compelled to follow the US, after all? What if our dollar fell – Perhaps the govt would see that as a better alternative than monkey-wrenching the personal finances of a big chunk of Cdn public? It might even help exports.

Hope you & your dawgs see that nothing is a given. The govt always has something else up its sleeve.

Actually I’m not calling for anything. US rates will rise in 2015 – that seems like a given. And the BoC will be unable to resist following it, as has been the pattern historically. It may take some time, but happen it will. — Garth

#205 Sue on 03.17.15 at 9:16 am

#147 Effluence greasy on 03.16.15 at 10:52 pm
“When did this blog turn into daytime television? Did I miss the vote on a format change?”

What? You’re not here for the sad freaks, rude jerks, offended mothers, serial high-wire performance artists, sarcastic know-it-alls, spelling and grammar dare-devils, alien overlords, healthcare tips, complaints about the price of gas, and menu advice?

I don’t know…I left my TV-B-Gone at home.

#206 Daisy Mae on 03.17.15 at 9:29 am

#27 Rainclouds: “There are a lot of people hanging on by their financial fingernails here in the city of the real estate play. Ten suites for sale in my building in Yaletown, have sat for MONTHS, no takers.”

***********************

I’m noticing more Code Whites (aggressive behaviour) and Code Blues (heart attack) at the hospital the past couple of years….it’s taking a toll.

#207 Chris on 03.17.15 at 9:56 am

I bet Canada will not raise rates for a year. Why? Because then all Canadians can keep up the fantasy that houses never lose value (election year too). Also, even though the dollar losing value sucks, it’s harder for people to “feel” the pain.

Your neighbors house being sold for x% less than you bought your house for is easily visible. Also your mortgage payment increasing is easily seen as it’s a withdrawal you see every month. Your imported gods increasing in price feels like “inflation” being a little higher than normal. Plus Canadians are used to paying a premium for imported electronics, food, etc, the only difference is the “premium” will be higher.

Mark my words. Interest rates stay low, dollar tanks.

#208 Broke Dick on 03.17.15 at 9:56 am

#64 AfterTheHouseSold on 03.16.15 at 8:07 pm
#207 response to Broke Dick yesterday

I don’t know if you caught my response to you or not but I hope todays post hits home to you with regards to waiting a year or two before selling.
Regards
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Last year I estimated I could walk away with just over $600,000 this year I estimate closer to $650,000. If by next year it goes back to $600,000 so be it. But if I sell today and rent who is to say my $650,000 invested in a balanced portfolio won’t end up being $600,000 in a years time. Do you know? Does anyone know for sure? of course not.
There are many factors still at play and moving is still a pain in the butt. In the meantime I still have to live somewhere. And until some of the other factors play out then here I stay.
Unless of course someone was to offer me real stupid money for the house.

#209 footydiver on 03.17.15 at 9:57 am

Garth, earlier when the rates dropped , you said the small drop would hardly affect the average family with a mortgage. The change amounts to a Starbucks coffee per day? But why is it different when the rates increase by a little bit?

The first increase will signal a change of direction in monetary policy. — Garth

#210 Mike on 03.17.15 at 10:36 am

Tides are changing in Saskatoon… Here’s an blog w/ EXCELLENT stats from a RE agent there: http://teamfisher.com/saskatoon-real-estate-week-in-review-march-8-14-2015

And finally some news about Fort Mac sales. No surprises there! http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/fort-mcmurray-housing-sales-plunge-as-low-oil-prices-persist/ar-AA9PlBW

#211 Mister Obvious on 03.17.15 at 10:37 am

#203 Sue

You forgot “those aghast at the lamentable state of the human condition”.

#212 Kris on 03.17.15 at 10:37 am

#202. Fair enough, Garth.

Comparing US housing market (pre-correction) & ours:

A crucial difference is glossed over, in my opinion. US mortgages were used as HIGHLY LEVERAGED investments by banks, to such an extent, that the balance sheets of Bear Stearns etc were dominated by these “debt instruments”.

Bottomline, any risk of homeowners defaulting (due to job losses and/or rate increases) was magnified and infected the entire system, due to the leveraged state of investment banks.

Our situation is similar ONLY as far as individual debt is concerned. But we’re different as far as exposure of the financial system (banks).

Thus, our debt-to-income number may be bad, but doesn’t pose a domino effect risk to the system. I haven’t seen a convincing rebuttal to this argument.

#213 Dup on 03.17.15 at 10:38 am

Soon Canada will be part of USA we like it or not…

#214 Q2 Duplex Drive on 03.17.15 at 10:50 am

Hi Garth – Greetings from Yonge & Eligible in Hogtown. I’ve been away for a while.

There are four condos going up in my immediate area, and the dump-truck traffic is really becoming a nuisance, although the concrete mixers, especially the trailers, are WAY cool. Two of these condos are going up across the street (Roehampton) from each other. So what’s going on? Will this new BMO cut-rate mortgage encourage yet more silly condo construction in the Big Lemon? Or are the banks just thumbing their noses at the feds, secure in their arrogance and absurd profits? I think it’s both.

You should really check out the area – between the condos, office tower construction and this absurd new LRT line running on Eglinton, the place is a disaster for pedestrians and motorists.

#215 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.17.15 at 11:02 am

#114 BlackDog on 03.16.15 at 9:42 pm
@Smoking Man #25 re: “You can thank our activist teacher premier, more interested in put a wedge in man woman relationships than creating jobs. ”
I’m no fan of Wynne, but that comment was beyond rude. As a female, with a gay 22 year old daughter, struggling to live in a society that still looks down on those who are not in “man woman relatioships”, your words were very offensive.
But what else is new eh? You talk about cheating on your wife like its no big deal, boast about ‘massages’ from girls who are my daughter’s age, and generally come off like an immature, spoiled, sorry example of the male species.
_____________________________________________
Whats the problem? You are talking about Smoking Man, he is the least politically correct person on this blog. While I don’t condone some of his lifestyle choices at the same time I recognize his right to voice his opinion (via el moderatoro Senior Garth) What SM does say is the way he sees things, mostly through a drunken stupor but then again we’ve all been there and done that!
Personally I cant stand Wynn or her cronies! Cant stand the agenda she is pushing down our children’s throats. However being the A-holes we are here in Ontario we elected Wynn so were stuck with this crap.
BTW Smoking Man is an alien so don’t take it too personal, where he comes from everyone smokes, cusses, drinks JD, gambles, lies, cheats on their partner and looses their teeth due to the lack of a toothbrush in their galaxy.

#216 Interest rates and dollar 2002 on 03.17.15 at 11:03 am

Does anyone remember 2002? Canadian dollar hit an all time low 64 cents and interest rates were 2.25%

If I remember correctly I lived fine,

History repeats itself

Does anyone remember the year Canada was called a banana republic for the nations highest debt levels.
We all survived

#217 calgary rip off(train insane or stay the same) on 03.17.15 at 11:14 am

Thought I would check this blog again this morning to see if the same things have been repeated over and over.(They have)

Here’s an update in Calgary from someone who actually lives here, positives and negatives. Traffic in the northwest has continued to increase. Why? Sage Hill is exploding in growth, there’s a new walmart, and the Golf Course by Beddington will be turned into around 10000 new residents after the last golf season coming this summer 2015. This is of course assuming there are people to buy these new overpriced shacks/condos. The oil price is down and some people are out of work, and yet nothing has seemed to happen regarding the lack of rental controls, overpriced rentals, and overpriced houses. In my neighbourhood prices are still around $500K for a house worth in a normal market $180K. So, nothing has really changed since 2007 and the sky is not falling. Same old story, day in, day out. If and when the interest rates go up, yes things will start to happen, as there are many persons who didnt control themselves as to what was approved by the bank and instead indulged. They bought the granite and amenities as if that would provide long term comfort. As a consequence, when they are up for renewal, if interest rates rise, they may not be approved for renewal. The figureheads in power know this, and to prevent a serious meltdown this is why rates have not risen. If things continue the figureheads may be powerless to stop rate rises.

The only real solution is to think before you get a place: It’s all about self control and what you can afford. Say you are going to retire in 10 years, it doesnt make sense to buy a place. In my case, if I ever retire, 2045 if I am lucky, it makes more sense as the rents in Calgary are about the same as a mortgage owner.

Remember what they say at Home Hardware: “Mortgage owners screwing other mortgage owners with lame advice”. And in many cases some of these mortgage owners may not even own the mortgage unless the bank agrees.

Keep in mind that if the Pipeline does ever get approved, costs of living in Alberta will continue to skyrocket and the landscape will continue to look more like Brooklyn, All in the Family. In the words of my daughter, “I dont want to look at any more houses, how could they approve of more houses on that golf course, I am going to tell the MLA as a future Calgarian that I dont want more houses.” From a 12 year old. Good luck. In Calgary its all about $$$ and appearances.

#218 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.17.15 at 11:15 am

#166 BlackDog on 03.17.15 at 12:20 am

@Wallflower #124 re: “huh…. that’s interesting… Your comments about smoking man. Just wondering, what exactly about your bias makes you think Smoking Man is male? ”

WTF? (sorry Garth). Seriously?
___________________________________________
All aliens from Nectonite are hermaphrodites!

#219 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.17.15 at 11:18 am

I’m anxiously waiting for rates to rise. Siting with way to much cash to put into any RE again. Now starting to look for shelters. But then again if houses crash, why wouldn’t we swoop in and pick them up for pennies on the dollar?

#220 Mister Obvious on 03.17.15 at 11:21 am

#92 Andrew Woburn

“Canada’s rental unit landscape witnessing a resurgence – The Globe and Mail”
—————————-

What puzzles me: where will the droves of people come from who are suddenly willing to “throw their money away on rent”?

#221 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.17.15 at 11:29 am

Just read this…………………..
We all would love to avoid paying as much tax a possible but this drive me crazy.
Why the hell don’t we just simply eliminate companies from off-shoring their headquarters by slapping an import tax on them unless they are in a country where we have a bilateral free trade agreement. If that country for example is a US company that has a offshore headquarter then too bad, we do not have a free trade agreement with say Cayman Islands?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/the-law-page/canadian-documentary-warns-tax-havens-threaten-democracy/article23409274/

#222 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.17.15 at 11:34 am

Better start gathering tin foil for our heads!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/nsa-trying-to-map-rogers-rbc-communications-traffic-leak-shows/article23491118/

#223 Obvious Truth on 03.17.15 at 11:35 am

#201 Londoner

The rate hike is baked in. The important part if tomorrow will likely be the language used to indicate the next hike. Particularly as to economic indicators the fed watches and what the fed sees likely unfolding. data dependant stuff we hear about. Also the language around ‘how many meetings’ ie ‘several’ or something different in terms of defining when the next hike could occur.

And exactly what reports are you referring to? Did you see building permits today? Well over 1m. Just wait to see what happens with prolonged low oil as transitory deflationary forces work through. You watching growth today?

The boc is handcuffed. Everybody knows it. But the world doesn’t care.

#224 Red Deer Rob on 03.17.15 at 11:38 am

So the day has finally arrived. Termination Tuesday. Dozens upon dozens of people have been given the axe at my now former oilfield services employer. Rumour has it up 45% of staff are to be let go. For the company it’s survival mode. I got the news about an hour ago I’m now out of a job. Good thing I’ve been preparing for this since October, along with the fact I’m totally debt free and have no family to support. I’m free as a bird now and onto my next adventure.

#225 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.17.15 at 11:42 am

Oh boy here comes the politically correct do-gooders, blah, blah, blah.
Jesus, oops sorry I can say that either!

http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/03/17/tory-mp-larry-miller-on-women-wearing-niqab-at-citizenship-ceremonies-stay-the-hell-where-you-came-from/

#226 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.17.15 at 11:43 am

What happened to freedom?
http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/03/16/two-students-barred-from-meeting-at-ryerson-university-because-they-were-not-racialised/

#227 Rational Optimist on 03.17.15 at 11:51 am

196 Julia on 03.17.15 at 7:53 am

“Yep. For high ratio mortgages (90.01-95%) CMHC only requires a minimum score of 610.
They will also ensure for lower lending ratios with scores as low as 580.”

Thanks for the link. By the way, everyone, subprime credit scores (obviously scores are taken along with a lot of other information) are generally considered anything less than 620 in the States.

#228 Broke Dick on 03.17.15 at 11:59 am

#151 aL Pacino on 03.16.15 at 11:07 pm
What would the number 1 asset you’d want to hold in a a country such as Canada????
Please tell me there is one which doesn’t start with R.

Houses!!

#229 Bytor The Snow Dog on 03.17.15 at 12:04 pm

@Blackdog- One more post on this matter if Garth allows it. Then I’m done with this sidebar.

Smoking Man’s entire “misogynistic and homophobic” statement below:

“You can thank our activist teacher premier, more interested in put a wedge in man woman relationships than creating jobs.

The good news for home owners , Poloz is going to need to get our buck down to 50% to stop the convoy of business wanting to get out of lala land of Wynee tax and take and stop on the mans face mind set.

How does he do that.. One guess.”

One would have to be incredibly sensitive to see misogyny and homphobism (is that a word?) there. Overly sensitive, in fact.

When people read too much into simple statements like the above I suspect they have an agenda to fulfill.

#230 BlackDog on 03.17.15 at 12:05 pm

@HolyCrapWheresTheTylenol #112 re: ” Cant stand the agenda she is pushing down our children’s throats.”

Where would you prefer children learn about the realities of sexuality in today’s world and how to protect themselves? On the internet? At their friend’s house while both parents are working?

Most parents are either too afraid, too prejudiced, or too inept to discuss this stuff with their kids. Let the schools do it.

#231 Sonny on 03.17.15 at 12:08 pm

Nexen to cut 400 jobs in response to oil plunge

“Nexen, the Canadian oil company owned by China’s state-owned CNOOC Ltd., is cutting 400 jobs to cope with the collapse in oil prices.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/nexen-cuts-350-jobs-in-north-america-50-in-uk/article23494140/

#232 Kris on 03.17.15 at 12:10 pm

#207. The first increase will signal a change of direction in monetary policy. — Garth
—————————————

But monetary policy isn’t decided for 1yr or 2yr intervals. They gather economic data every quarter, and raise rates upon evidence of strength, and hold/lower rates with the opposite evidence.

Even if rates do inch up once, it’s not like a guaranteed change of course. The first sign of trouble, they’ll hold or lower those rates, the very next quarter if need be.

My point, it’s not a policy thing, it’s economic data driven. Considering how stretched Cdns are, does anyone believe things will be hunky-dory when rates go up? No. And that almost guarantees that rates won’t increase more than the avg Cdn can handle (which isn’t much).

#233 BlackDog on 03.17.15 at 12:12 pm

ooops prior comment to HolyCrap was re: #212

@HolyCrapWhere’sTheTylenol re: “Whats the problem? You are talking about Smoking Man, he is the least politically correct person on this blog. While I don’t condone some of his lifestyle choices at the same time I recognize his right to voice his opinion (via el moderatoro Senior Garth) ”

Right, and so does everyone else. I was voicing mine. What’s the problem?

If SM had made a racist comment rather than a homophobic or sexist one, no one here would be attacking me for criticizing it. But since that was not the case, SM is funny and I am making a big deal about nothing.

#234 Blacksheep on 03.17.15 at 12:32 pm

Beelzebub # 178,

Dear advanced life form,

Forget a RE collapse, what we really want to know is, has our planet passed through the great filter, or is that still ahead of us?

Regards,

Cattle of earth

#235 crash callaway on 03.17.15 at 12:38 pm

Possible Govt solutions to keep the unreal estate music playing…

1. Passing of Bill C-Yerscrewed…Making it illegal to rent.

2. No further admittance to Canada without buying a house.

3. When squirrels are put on endangered species list the first five family pets will be deemed consumable during the tuff economic times ahead.

#236 Panhead on 03.17.15 at 12:40 pm

#192 Ray Vaqsquez on 03.17.15 at 6:36 am

Taxes of all types are going up and new ones are coming folks!
———————————————————-
Don’t know where you are from but out here on the west coast our Premier has told us LNG is going to eliminate the provincial sales tax and the long goal is to also eliminate the dreaded property purchase tax. That was before the last election though …

#237 Bytor The Snow Dog on 03.17.15 at 12:51 pm

Seems like a whole whack o posts disappeared. Garth did you disappear them?

I am blameless. — Garth

#238 Blithe, Barrington on 03.17.15 at 12:52 pm

Smoking Man is phenomenon that infamously prorupted into the minds of the waken. His simplistic presentation of disdainful intellect cannot be taken for granted.

Meeting him personally on a recent reunion in Las Vegas, I can attest to the legitimacy of his contemptuous.

You mustn’t engage in debate and believe you can have a conquest over his dominion.

Smoking Man suffers by a form of meddlesome disorder caused by lack of stimulation and nourishment in his monotony receptors.

#239 Bytor The Snow Dog on 03.17.15 at 12:52 pm

Never mind. Something’s f’ed up in my browser.

#240 JSS on 03.17.15 at 12:58 pm

Nexen cutting 400 jobs

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/03/17/nexen-energy-cutting-340-jobs-in-north-america-and-60-in-the-uk-to-adapt-to-oil-price-collapse/

#241 Ray Vasquez on 03.17.15 at 1:04 pm

TO Panhead #230

Overall taxes are going up, add up municipal, federal, provincial and they will take more in the next few years for sure.

#242 Blacksheep on 03.17.15 at 1:04 pm

Wes # 161,

“Its different here in Canada. We are well known for our superior climate. This alone justifies million dollar homes in a country with population density is in the same ball park as Antarctica.”
——————————————————-
This is sarcasm, but try a different perspective.

The fact we have a huge land mass with the majority (75%) living as far south as possible to avoid the sub zero temps, dictates the ‘desirable’ (and I use that word very loosely) portion of canada is relatively small, maybe the size of france.

And really, who wants to live in manitoba or saskatchewan anyway? This is a contributing factor, in our home prices being driven to ridiculous levels.

Can’t wait for our southern border to fall, we’re getting closer every day now.

#243 Armando on 03.17.15 at 1:10 pm

Sounds like this is a great opportunity for anyone with half a brain in GTA or YVR to unload their property before the you-know-what hits the fan! Go for it before it is too late!

#244 saskatoon on 03.17.15 at 1:25 pm

#226 BlackDog

how can you speak for “most people”?

what does this even mean?

you are lazy, presumptuous, AND narcissistic.

congrats!

#245 JimH on 03.17.15 at 1:33 pm

Man, there is much fruitless argument going on here about when, or if at all, the US Fed will raise rates. Such argument is pedantic and silly. There is no doubt that rates will rise eventually, and most likely in the 3rd quarter of this year.

There is no need for panic, as interest rates will plod higher just as inflation, employment and costs will plod (not gallop) higher.
I see no reason to expect anything like the “Taper Tantrum” of 2013. In fact, it looks to me like much of any anticipated correction is already “baked-in” to existing prices.

Still, there are some practical things that can gradually be done with caution as the real facts of the matter unfold later this year to adjust and reallocate a fixed-income portfolio, without doing an extreme and unwarranted “chicken little”. Here are some practical suggestions:
1. Bond prices generally correct inversely to rate increases, but long term, low coupon bonds suffer more. You can hold but not increase those positions, or opt for exchanging them for short-term fixed rate securities instead.
2. Consider moving out of US Treasuries if you’re holding them of ETF’s dependent on them.
3. If you’ve been “chasing yield” now would be a good time to reduce your exposure.
4. Hold onto your preferred stocks because they likely outperform Treasuries, but don’t necessarily add to positions.
5. Floating-rate notes (FRN’s) are now available from several sources like foreign banks, government agencies and some corporations, and some may be attractive.
6. Consider an Inflation-protected bond holding like the iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP). I like these better than FRN’s. TIP has great liquidity compared to LTPZ, SIPE, IPE, SCHP for example and the return should increase as rates rise.

Anyway, rather than silly arguments about Fed increases, lets hope we can all agree that being richer is more important than being ‘right’!

(I bought considerably more XLF and SCHH yesterday.)

#246 VultureGuy on 03.17.15 at 2:15 pm

I had a conversation with a former neighbor who has been trying to sell his apartment after moving to a larger one in a different ‘hood. He’s having trouble. He’s getting nibbles, but only after lowering the price. He’s been on the market for couple of months. It appears that he’s carrying both places. That’s gotta hurt.

#247 Smoking Man on 03.17.15 at 2:16 pm

#233 Blithe, Barrington on 03.17.15 at 12:52 pm
Smoking Man is phenomenon that infamously prorupted into the minds of the waken. His simplistic presentation of disdainful intellect cannot be taken for granted.
Meeting him personally on a recent reunion in Las Vegas, I can attest to the legitimacy of his contemptuous.
You mustn’t engage in debate and believe you can have a conquest over his dominion.
Smoking Man suffers by a form of meddlesome disorder caused by lack of stimulation and nourishment in his monotony receptors.
……………..

Hey you limey bastard, you idiot, what does this mean anyway (prorupted) the comments section isent big enough for the two of us, don’t want to see you here again, if I do all the secretes in the vault from Vegas will be exposed for all to read.

No, screw it, it’s going up tonight.

#248 seeing it from both sides on 03.17.15 at 2:17 pm

#220 Red Deer Rob
“……I’m now out of a job.”

Saudi Arabia’s hiring
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-17/saudi-arabia-wooing-fired-u-s-shale-workers-to-join-our-team-

#249 waiting on the westcoast on 03.17.15 at 2:19 pm

Did anyone checkout Stephen Gordon’s editorial in the National Post? He actually says we are doing well because assets/net worth are up and debt servicing ratios are down… Oh, wait, he is a professor of economics at Laval. A quote…

“Let’s say that again: debt service ratios are at record low levels. It looks as though households are making room in their personal finances in case there’s a spike in the costs of carrying their debt.

Obviously, it would be going too far to say that there are no risks; some Canadians have doubtlessly exposed themselves to unhealthy levels of debt. But it’s a mistake to focus on the liabilities side of the household sector balance sheet and conclude that Canadians are sleepwalking to disaster.”

I can’t even comment on the article… Go Read it here:

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/search/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com/2015/03/16/stephen-gordon-our-debt-binge-myth&q=Stephen%20gordon

#250 Mike T. on 03.17.15 at 2:21 pm

‘#138 Smoking Man on 03.16.15 at 10:27 pm DELETED (Sexual depravity) …..
What, who doesn’t love a submarine sandwhich.. ‘

someone needs to call Larry David
there is an un-written classic Seinfeld episode hidden in there

#251 Mike T. on 03.17.15 at 2:27 pm

I am full of wild and crazy ideas – I do not subscribe to the fear factory that the Elites broadcast daily through their various media

So here is the latest, it’s not new, you’ve probably heard it

There are no nuclear weapons on Earth

it’s a hoax – and a good one

I could go on and on for my reasoning, simply put, it’s cheaper to scare people with fake bombs than real bombs

more invisible boogeyman nonsense

#252 waiting on the westcoast on 03.17.15 at 2:28 pm

‘#138 Smoking Man on 03.16.15 at 10:27 pm DELETED (Sexual depravity) …..
What, who doesn’t love a submarine sandwhich.. ‘

Prior to learning about the rather large sandwich, I was going to ask if it involved aliens or dogs?

#253 Oil Is Sticky on 03.17.15 at 2:28 pm

I can’t even comment on the article… Go Read it here:
http://www.nationalpost.com/m/search/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com/2015/03/16/stephen-gordon-our-debt-binge-myth&q=Stephen%20gordon

——

It’s pretty common fact that these “Skoool Types” that help create monetary or economic policies and have NO real world experience almost always get it wrong.

#254 pwn3d on 03.17.15 at 2:30 pm

#228 BlackDog on 03.17.15 at 12:12 pm

If SM had made a racist comment rather than a homophobic or sexist one, no one here would be attacking me for criticizing it.

————–
Except he didn’t make a homophobic or sexist comment. He just said something you didn’t like to hear. The fact is she is clearly an activist premier and it is to the benefit of very few.

Back to the blog – treb released mid month stats today… all I can say is zomg!

#255 Mike J on 03.17.15 at 2:31 pm

GPD forecast from the Atlanta FED …
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow.aspx
GDP is also in a race to the bottom!

#256 Daisy Mae on 03.17.15 at 2:32 pm

“As those teeth fall out, the bone that used to support them, is rotting also…”

********************

Come on, Garth! Repeat after me:

“This. Is. Not. A. Dental. Blog.” You can do it! :-)

#257 Debtfree on 03.17.15 at 2:32 pm

Check out peter diamandis on Twitter . He’s saying that real estate and realtors are going the way ( disrupted ) of travel agents . Through vr and ai ,he figures that realtors are toast .

#258 Mark on 03.17.15 at 2:40 pm

“What would the number 1 asset you’d want to hold in a a country such as Canada????
Please tell me there is one which doesn’t start with R.”

Railways? :)

Seriously, the long-term returns of owners of Canada’s railways have been nothing short of spectacular. CN stock has what, gone up at 15%/annum since its privatization. CP has delivered less spectacular returns in more modern times, but has spun out lots of great assets. Both are quintessential “real estate” plays in Canada, being Canada’s largest single non-Crown owners of real estate.

Telecoms also fit the bill, but haven’t done quite as well since the activist CRTC started to actively attack the industry starting in the 1990s.

#259 Oil Is Sticky on 03.17.15 at 2:40 pm

#207 footydiver on 03.17.15 at 9:57 am
Garth, earlier when the rates dropped , you said the small drop would hardly affect the average family with a mortgage. The change amounts to a Starbucks coffee per day? But why is it different when the rates increase by a little bit?

The first increase will signal a change of direction in monetary policy. — Garth

——–

And we have been at ZERO for 6 years so. So they raise it 0.25% and in a year or two do it again. Big deal. The destruction of the economy from Govt overspending and taxing the public to death will and has had a far bigger impact than “The Fed”.

As I said, ‘a change in monetary policy.’ That means continuous tightening until the stated goal is achieved. — Garth

#260 Broke Dick on 03.17.15 at 2:47 pm

so where did I read that Toronto house prices were down .1% over the last year?

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/03/17/that-1-million-toronto-home-just-got-even-pricier/

#261 Debtfree on 03.17.15 at 2:59 pm

He is saying real estate searches and real estate agents are going to be disrupted .

#262 Nagraj on 03.17.15 at 3:09 pm

#244 waiting on the west coast
” . . . [only] some Canadians have doubtlessly exposed themselves to unhealthy levels of debt . . . ”

That fabulous lie looks – verbatim – like the statement made by Harper to some editors in BC (some time ago); to wit, that there’s no debt bubble in Canada, it’s just just that SOME people may have borrowed too much.

Silly political propaganda.

#263 too old too care on 03.17.15 at 3:11 pm

Love reading the blog and comments mr. Turner.
Just had one question.
You quote that victoria has seen little to no HAM influence, and you compare victoria to vancouver in terms of similar population dynamics, make up etc. However, have you seen any actual data on vancouver’s HAM influence. Again I’m not spouting xenophobic rhetoric like some do. I am just curious be ause when some one points this out, you immediately go back to the victoria numbers.

Thanks for the daily chuckles.

The Victoria board publishes these stats. Thee Van board does not. I made it clear they are similar, due to market proximity, but not the same. Draw your own conclusions. — Garth

#264 jess on 03.17.15 at 3:14 pm

small countries big banks

http://www.taxjustice.net/2015/03/17/small-countries-big-banks-is-andorra-the-new-cyprus/

#265 BlackDog on 03.17.15 at 3:35 pm

@Saskatoon #239 re: “#226 BlackDog

“you are lazy, presumptuous, AND narcissistic.
congrats!”

Why?

Because I agree with the updated sex curriculum for our children? Because I think schools have an important role to play to ensure ALL kids (not just the ones whose parents are capable of filling that role) get honest, non-judgmental information they need to make safe, healthy, respectful choices?

I also want the schools to teach my kids math – does this make me lazy, presumptuous and narcissistic also?

#266 Obvious Truth on 03.17.15 at 3:35 pm

#237 blacksheep.

You could fit 50 million people between Mississauga and windsor along the 401 and south to the lakes.

That’s likely a low number.

#267 Financial Freedom at 40 on 03.17.15 at 3:42 pm

#240 JimH on 03.17.15 at 1:33 pm
____

Now that’s the kind of post that makes pausing during a comments section speed scroll worthwhile.

Have been taking some gradual steps – short-term bond ladders, floating rate, TIPS, financials (insurers), industrials and hard goods and some more discretionary. Gradually selling health, tech and India as happy with the returns.

Windsocks placed. Monitoring breezes.

#268 pwn3d on 03.17.15 at 4:02 pm

#251 BlackDog on 03.17.15 at 3:35 pm

I also want the schools to teach my kids math
————–

You can be sure that there is one thing that won’t be taught in school, and that is math. I know 2 hs math teachers and they both agree the curriculum has been changed to suit the “lowest common denominator” in pc speak.

This is what happens when inclusion is more important than education.

#269 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.17.15 at 4:04 pm

#226 BlackDog on 03.17.15 at 12:05 pm
@HolyCrapWheresTheTylenol #112 re: ” Cant stand the agenda she is pushing down our children’s throats.”
…………………………………………………………….
Where would you prefer children learn about the realities of sexuality in today’s world and how to protect themselves? On the internet? At their friend’s house while both parents are working?

Most parents are either too afraid, too prejudiced, or too inept to discuss this stuff with their kids. Let the schools do it.
_____________________________________________
Well I guess I’m old fashioned, firstly teaching your children the realities of sex education, orientation, bullying, or rape is the parents job. Not a government, especially this present one. I didn’t like the previous governments agenda and this one is even worse. We all have our own levels of morals, beliefs and principles. Ours, not the governments principle. The parents have to buckle down and decide what is more important a job that pays money, but takes away from your first and most important job, your children. Regardless it is still the parents job even with two workers. I know that it is tough to raise children, keep a roof over the families head and eat but you really have to wonder how did we all do it in the past? You sacrifice but not at the expense of the children. They come first! My wife and I taught our children about the birds and bees, and that sometimes there is a cross over in life that doesn’t allow natural procreation of the species but that it works for the two people by allowing them to live their lives together in happiness. We taught them that no means no for our girls and that our boys knew the same. We taught them not to bully or be mean as it just wasn’t acceptable in our home. The parents have been given this job, not the government. For gods sakes I don’t want the government doing anymore than they have to. Have you ever seen any government do a good job at anything without screwing things up right?

#270 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.17.15 at 4:09 pm

#260 BlackDog on 03.17.15 at 3:35 pm

@Saskatoon #239 re: “#226 BlackDog

“you are lazy, presumptuous, AND narcissistic.
congrats!”

Why?

Because I agree with the updated sex curriculum for our children? Because I think schools have an important role to play to ensure ALL kids (not just the ones whose parents are capable of filling that role) get honest, non-judgmental information they need to make safe, healthy, respectful choices?

I also want the schools to teach my kids math – does this make me lazy, presumptuous and narcissistic also?
_____________________________________________
Can the present government please teach our children all about the Gas plant scandals?

Teacher “Here you go Jimmy, how do you make a billion dollars become zero?”
Jimmy “I don’t know teacher please tell me your opinion”

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/timeline-ontario-s-gas-plant-cancellation-scandal-1.1749746

#271 BlackDog on 03.17.15 at 4:32 pm

@Sue #203

re:”You’re not here for the sad freaks, rude jerks, offended mothers, serial high-wire performance artists, sarcastic know-it-alls, spelling and grammar dare-devils, alien overlords, healthcare tips, complaints about the price of gas, and menu advice?”

Don’t forget the oral health and sex education. Blog dawgs really know how to put the fun as well as the funds into finance.

#272 Yaroslav on 03.17.15 at 4:36 pm

Garth, what do you make of the UK, Australia, France, Germany, and Italy all making moves to join the China-led development bank (AIIB)?

And of Greece making moves to secure financing from Russia?

Or of Moscow launching Ruble Renminbi futures to make trades either between China and Russia?

It all points to a broad movement away from the USA dollar and towards China and Russia.

Do you still think Uncle Sam is going to have as much of a say as he once did?

Of course. The AIIB is more of a trade organization and has nothing to do with anti-US. American dollars will still be the global currency long after everyone reading this is dead. Except me. I’m half titanium now. — Garth

#273 BlackDog on 03.17.15 at 4:39 pm

@HolyCrapWhere’sTheTylenol, #264

re: “My wife and I taught our children about the birds and bees”

Birds and bees? Huh? I don’t get it. It sounds depraved though.

#274 devore on 03.17.15 at 4:44 pm

#78 futurerental

I would not bother with a long lease, which will tie you down to a place you may end up not liking or that may not suit you in the future. Either way, it will not protect you from any rent increases, unless explicitly stated so in the lease. Standard rent controls allow for an increase once a year, which coincidentaly also happens to be the length of a standard lease, but actually has nothing to do with the lease.

If you like the place, get another 1 (or 2) year lease 2-3 months before your current one expires.

#275 james on 03.17.15 at 5:06 pm

#265 Holy Crap

I enjoy your posts usually. This one is just dumb.

Sometimes the collective wisdom of voters is just much greater than all the pundits and commenters.

In the case of the gas plants, voters recognized at the time that both the Progressive Conservatives and the NDP had made exactly the same campaign promise as the Liberals, to stop the project.

No matter who got into office, the result, and the costs, would have been the same.

So it was and remains a non-issue.

Only cynical liar politicians and their acolytes tried to paint this any other way. Voters saw through that.
Smart of them.

Big yawn… Boring..

People just figured they voted for the best party with the best leader in Ontario. (Notice I did not say ‘great’ – just the best of a weak field)

Voting actually increased for the first time in 25 years, but was still only 52%.

So are you and the other anti-Wynne people here geniuses, and everyone else in Ontario is just stupid?

Or maybe your thinly veiled personal attacks against her have more to do with her gender and sexual orientation?

The answer is very clear to me, and many others here, I am afraid.

(And no, I am not a Wynne/Liberal fan, and don’t vote for them)

#276 jess on 03.17.15 at 5:25 pm

NY Brings Credit Bureaus To Heel, CFPB Arbitration Study Paves Way Toward New Protections
Tuesday, March 10, 2015

By Ed Mierzwinski
Consumer Program Director
…”The settlement requires the bureaus to have humans verify the results of reinvestigations of certain disputes; the normal practice has been that computers at a furnisher (creditor or debt collector) share summarized codes with the bureau’s computers. But as I pointed out to CNBC: “They’re just verifying sameness, not correctness,” —which is what can keep wrong information on the report.”

http://www.ag.ny.gov/press-release/ag-schneiderman-announces-groundbreaking-consumer-protection-settlement-three-national

Experian, Equifax, And Transunion, Which Maintain Consumer Credit Information On 200 Million Americans, Have Agreed To Increase Protections For Consumers Facing Credit Report Errors; Provide Second Free Annual Credit Report To Consumers

Agreement Increases Protections For Consumers With Medical Debt; Reforms Process For Correcting Report Errors; Improves Accuracy Of Reports

A.G. Schneiderman: This Agreement Will Reform The Entire Industry And Provide Vital Protections For Millions Of Consumers Across The Country

#277 The American on 03.17.15 at 5:27 pm

At #172: Tipler, Canadian bank bailout have already happened, at the same time the banks were getting their’s right here in the USA. Or, did you not know that? Oh wait! Of course not! Canadians didn’t get a bailout! They received “liquidity support.” LMFAO. Oh, and you don’t need to thank us Yanks for the dollars we sent your way to bail out your banks in the wake of the financial crises. After all, Canadians received a bail out 60% higher than Americans did, per capita ($117 Billion your banks received in a bail out, errrr “liquidity support from October 2008 through June of 2010, $33 Billion from the US Federal Reserve. A total of 7% of Canada’s total GDP). Again, I’d like to know how Canada’s banks are “more conservative?” LMFAO Sheesh, your government and the BOC really have your people snowed, and most Canadians have bought right into it. You say “tomato,” we say, “bullshit!” Your banks suck. Period.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9K_N0uOXkQA

And for those who can’t comprehend it, these videos may help you understand better.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WcWA5msi68

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPs39FEw5gY

#278 46 and 2 on 03.17.15 at 5:27 pm

#45, Well said… Harper is a dangerous sociopath and will do anything to stay in power.
=====================
We all had better hope he does stay in power, god help us is we end up with a “wanta be” PET to get us through whatever is coming. Probably light up a fat one and hope it all goes away.

#279 earthboundmisfit on 03.17.15 at 5:29 pm

@237 Blacksheep
Dissing Manitoba is a hangin’ offence. Better start sleeping with one eye open, brother.

#280 Vanecdotal on 03.17.15 at 5:29 pm

Good lord, bubble end times must be near… gLowBall news running a RE sky is falling article on their home page.

Hurry, before their RE Cartel advertisers notice and it quickly “sinks” to the bottom of the ocean…

“Canadian home prices to fall 40-50 per cent, financial author says”

http://globalnews.ca/news/1887724/canadian-home-prices-to-fall-40-50-per-cent-financial-author-says/

““The availability of financing. Canada is unique in the world in the availability of government insurance through CMHC [Canada Mortgage and House Corp.], that’s allowed the lenders to lend a phenomenal amount of money. [Household] debt levels have gone from one trillion dollars to $1.8 trillion, just in 15 years.

“I think the government has genuinely tried to encourage the housing market and home ownership, which started after the Second World War. But in the last 15 years it’s kind of taken on a life of its own. It’s this monster that nobody can really tame. The reality is, lenders don’t really take any risk, so they keep on providing more and more [loans].”

#281 Tax me i'm Canadian on 03.17.15 at 5:35 pm

It’s not just translink, it’s every crown corporation from Coastal health, B.C ferries, ICBC, BC hydro they’re all slopping at the trough. It’s so easy to google, the C.E.O.’s and their executive teams are all making more money than our own Prime Minister. Compensation for the public sector is way out of balance when compared to the private sector. Not only do they earn multiples of the average taxpayer, we must not forget about their rich pension and severance packages.

Our Crown Corporations are much less efficient than private sector businesses because in the private sector they’re objective is to profit. Unlike government agencies who need to spend their budget in order to apply for more money next year. Don’t get me started on the unions, i use to work in the B.C.G.E.U and hard work and initiative were frowned upon. There was a culture of complacency, the attitude was slow down you’re making us look bad and we set the pace, there will always be more work tomorrow.

That’s how our government diffuses a revolution, they keep more people dependent on the government cheese than not. Everybody on welfare/disability/pensions – to the civic/municipal/federal/provincial/native nations. Government has more dependent than not.

The rich don’t care the poor don’t have to pay they’re fair share, it’s the middle class that erodes.

Go to youtube and type in TAXES. 44 % of our earnings goes to taxes, that’s more than the average person pays for their housing + food + clothing combined. Then what about parking and fines and everything else.

It probably wouldn’t be half as bad if the scum of the earth contributed their fair share but the parasites contribute nothing, expect everything for free and they compound the burden on the enslaved because the social/medical industry is paid for by the tax-slaves, no wonder people are sleeping in hospital hallways.

Insite saves lives, that’s part of the problem because before they use to O’D and were put out of their misery. Our government propaganda says it saves money to provide Supportive Housing which is Absolute Bullshit, it costs 100’s of thousands of dollars to keep those maggots on life support.

That’s not the worst part though, the worst part is we have to co-habitate with them and be victims of they’re crimes.

Gregor and the goofs and the advocates are the enablers. It’s easy to advocate when you come into the neighborhood for the day and then go home to the burbs and self congradulate. Come live the hell we live with these demons as neighbors.

% 44 of your earned + 1/3 of your life = The story of your enslavement
do NOT contact me with unsolicited services or offers

#282 Mark on 03.17.15 at 5:39 pm

“The Victoria board publishes these stats. Thee Van board does not. I made it clear they are similar, due to market proximity, but not the same. Draw your own conclusions.”

Not only that, but if the Vancouver board had any stats to publish that were favourable towards the narrative that “foreigners are bringing money”, then they would. It would be an excellent sales tool and marketing point.

But various sources of evidence point to almost no “foreign” participation in Canada’s RE marketplace. The least of which is the fact that Canada’s RE bubble can be entirely and unequivocally explained by extremities in domestic leverage and record high ownership rates. The Vancouver RE board, hence, would prefer that people merely ‘speculate’ about foreign money, rather than actually offering up any proof of it.

And no, just because someone looks “Asian” doesn’t mean they’re a foreigner. As I’ve pointed out probably dozens of times, nearly all recent immigrants arrive in Canada with little more than a rental down-payment and enough for a used Honda. Refugees typically arrive with nothing.

#283 Investx on 03.17.15 at 5:50 pm

And it continues to feel like Japan, which was supposedly the only place where prolonged low rates could occur.

#284 kommykim on 03.17.15 at 5:52 pm

RE:#263 pwn3d on 03.17.15 at 4:02 pm
I know 2 hs math teachers and they both agree the curriculum has been changed to suit the “lowest common denominator” in pc speak.

Finding the lowest common denominator SHOULD be part of math class. ;-)

#285 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.17.15 at 9:51 pm

Mark @258

This is the first comment of yours I have taken exception to.

“Activist” CRTC? For who? The BELLTULUSROGERS oligapoly?

Puh-leeze.

#286 Honey Dripper on 03.18.15 at 5:03 am

Buy XEG – where are all those lost souls now?

#287 Daisy Mae on 03.18.15 at 9:45 am

RBC is not happy with their profit margin so all customer banking charges will increase in June….