The teaser

SIGN modified

Peter’s 31, and has been shopping for a townhouse in Vancouver for the past six months. Unlike most people who write to me, he’s not a complete screwup. “I’ve been reading your blog for two months, now,” he says, “and suffice to say I may not be shopping much longer.”

Smart boy. He also invests.

“I’ve been saving in broad range ETFs, which seems to be your and frankly everyone’s recommendation. You’re right, it’s been a good run and the market has treated everyone well for the past few years. Now I’ve got 150K burning a hole in my pocket and generations of expectations telling me I’m not a grown up until I own my own place.

“I get what you’re saying about debt levels and I see the logic. An artificially inflated market is a bad thing to enter regardless of how overpriced it is.”

Peter wrote to me with this question: “Are our major cities (Tor and Van) becoming world cities like NYC, Tokyo or London? The average resident has been priced out of those cities for decades. Are we gravitating towards that? Are we just reaching a density ratio where SFH don’t fit with the urbanization of the city and will cease to be built so we’re supply capped? I can see how a condo glut happens but if we’re in a process of ripping out homes and putting in houses in favour of denser living then does that mean that in the long-term at least (barring a price correction) SFH are simply going to be unattainable in these cities?”

The answer is simple. It’s no. Canada has some cool places to live, but Toronto is not NYC, and sure as hell not London or Tokyo. Vancouver is not San Francisco or HK, Beijing, or even Seoul. The comparisons are weird and parochial.

Nonetheless, the real estate fetish that’s infected much of Canada for a decade has profoundly impacted our big cities. It’s made life far worse for middle class families. Like in Ireland – a similarly middling country where real estate hormones ran amok – fortunes were made owning houses, until it ended, leaving a landscape of debt.

CMHC let it be known on Monday that housing starts have started to collapse. The numbers are the worst since 2009, and centre around a sharp drop in condo developments. Meanwhile sales are down 33% year/year in Calgary, and the days-on-market number there is swelling. Recall that sales have been flat or stagnating now since the autumn in over 60% of Canadian cities.

There are three things to remember, Peter. After moderating a bit, debt levels have popped again. Mortgage borrowing in January was up more than 5%. We’ve just added $80 billion in new debt, and families now owe an amount of money larger than the entire Canadian economy. All of that is at interest rates either floating or fixed for a maximum of five years. None of it will renew at a lower rate.

As you know (I hope) households here have more debt than Americans did at the height of their real estate bubble. Our taxes are also higher. Our houses cost a lot more. And our mortgages are not tax-deductible, or fixed for 30 years.

Second, with million-dollar average homes in Toronto and Vancouver, no longer eligible for CMHC insurance, a growing number of buyers are resorting to subprime loans. That basically-unregulated business has grown by 25% in a year. Yes, Peter, people are taking second mortgages so they can get downpayments to qualify for first mortgages on $1 million-plus houses.

Third, we now have teaser loans. CIBC is the first major bank this spring to import the US phenom to Canada, drawing people in with a super sexy cheapo rate, which inevitably hikes. The bank is offering 1.99% money for nine months of a 48-month loan, which escalates to 2.96% and will pop again upon renewal.

CIBC modified

So, Peter, there you go. Record family debt levels, subprime borrowing, teaser loans and house lust. If that sounds a lot like Miami or Phoenix in 2005, it should. Those are not ‘world cities’ and yet prices went nuclear, as has been happening in YVR or the GTA. It was not a tidal wave of investment dollars diverted from Europe or Asia that swept Boston or Los Angeles higher, but lax lending and loose hormones. After all, if real estate values were based on incomes, economic growth or the influx of capital, the locals wouldn’t be so busy burying themselves.

But they are. Their willingness to swallow debt and assume risk is the foundation of the market. You can play along, throw your $150,000 into the game, borrow much more and hope for the best. Or, you can stay liquid and stay alive.

Wait for the world-class regret.

278 comments ↓

#1 Mike on 03.09.15 at 7:00 pm

Teaser Rates in Canaduh?
Oh NO, that’s only a US thingy isn’t it ? :)

#2 LH on 03.09.15 at 7:06 pm

If you do buy, stick with sfhs in the city center. Trend is your friend baby. No condos please. Supply and demand dynamics are night and day. Not to mention per sq ft prices are still cheaper for houses.

#3 Capt. Obvious on 03.09.15 at 7:08 pm

I remember watching a documentary a year or two after the collapse happened in Ireland. They interviewed a lady who lived in a subdivision where she and a couple other neighbours were the only occupants. “Kind of lonely.” The rest of the subdivision had been built but no buyers materialized. I believe the Irish government even resorted to bulldozing some completed new homes to remove inventory from the market. They literally had built brand new ghost towns.

#4 mark on 03.09.15 at 7:12 pm

You’ll be happy to know things have escalated in Australia. The treasurer is now floating the idea of raiding retirement accounts for first homes.

Maybe you should write him a letter too. He’ll probably ask Stephen Harper for a reference though.

#5 Mike in the Okanagan on 03.09.15 at 7:13 pm

Couple of interesting things past my screen these last few days…a piece on HAM in YVR: http://www.theprovince.com/touch/story.html?id=10858619

And I saw someone on BNN actually saying Canadian Real Estate was undervalued as I was getting off the plane in Cowtown. WHOA!
http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=566647

#6 Retired Boomer - WI on 03.09.15 at 7:14 pm

I really get a charge out of watching my northerly neighbors burying themselves in dubious house debt.

Maybe you will come out of it all right. Toronto is not a bad city, just has an awful main artery. Hamilton will grow anew after steel. Even Oshawa will grow after GM l.eaves town, as Oakville will do after Ford has a better idea somewhere else.

All things being equal, they never are equal. That’s why I am amused, and you have never seen a large property gasbag deflate.

#7 ILoveCharts on 03.09.15 at 7:14 pm

I generally agree that YVR is not a world class city like NYC, London, Paris, Singapore or Tokyo. However, there is something holding me back from being all-in on that assertion…. out of all of those cities Vancouver is in the best country (good health care, good schools, etc. etc.) with the best environment (much lower levels of pollution than all those alternatives,) and it is the most scenic.

I personally wouldn’t trade my spot here for a spot in any of those cities… so who am I to say we aren’t world class.

#8 Harden on 03.09.15 at 7:15 pm

this is the danger im media not acknowledging the simple fact that offshore money is fueling vancouver RE: people like Peter feel they can also somehow afford to participate in the absurdity.

#9 gulnar on 03.09.15 at 7:17 pm

Waited too long for cymbalta

#10 mitzerboy aka queencity kid on 03.09.15 at 7:17 pm

thanks garth

… itz spring im liquid and alive

#11 RainBird on 03.09.15 at 7:17 pm

The Fed effectively acts as the world’s central bank, but sets monetary policy only in its own interest. Under the pressure and the orders of financial oligopolies, it fixes interest rates and prints money to suit itself, sending economies across the globe into tailspins. When the Fed wanted to halt the decade-long decline in the profit rate and to pull the US out of stagflation in the late 1970s, it raised its rates sharply – the Volcker shock of 1979-1981, when the federal funds effective rate jumped to more than 20% at the beginning of the 1980s – throwing many developing countries into freefall, default and debt servitude.

#12 young & foolish on 03.09.15 at 7:21 pm

“SFH are simply going to be unattainable in these cities?”
The answer is simple. It’s no.”

There you have it … seems like prices may come way back down so average families can get in. A major drop is on the way. Take that you “world class wannabes”!

#13 Whinepegger on 03.09.15 at 7:22 pm

Garth, when the collapse comes, will it be as intense as the American collapse? Do you think prices will fall to the levels now seen in Arizona?

#14 pathcontrolmonk on 03.09.15 at 7:23 pm

It is embarassing to compare YVR to SFO, so lets try the closest American cousin instead, Seattle.

Vancouver (GVRD) = 2.3 mil, GDP USD 100 bil, avg house price USD 700k

Seattle (Seattle/Bellevue/Tacoma) = 3.6 mil, GDP USD 800 bil, avg house price 400k

And please stop with the BS about schools, Seattle has some of the highest rated public schools in the US.

#15 pathcontrolmonk on 03.09.15 at 7:24 pm

that was supposed to be YVR POP 2.3 mil, SEA POP 3.6 mil

#16 Go Buy It! on 03.09.15 at 7:27 pm

Go blow it, if you have to ask you are just another self entitled person who has to have it said to them directly because of course you’re special. some of us are dealing with real issues like the stupid CASL law that just destroyed our business and forces us to go back to the Canada Post Dinosaur because some fat beurocrat is to lazy to install a spam filter. Crap even posting an offer on your social network makes a Canadian company liable to millions of dollars in fines. Well what about the crap commercials on CBC can we now report them to casl for spamming us. These new rules are disgusting and ignorant and destroy our right to free speech!

#17 Rainclouds on 03.09.15 at 7:30 pm

Dr Cooper of Granite Club Fame is Slagging Pimco

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/03/09/why-is-bay-street-picking-on-stephen-poloz/

No conflict here: http://www.dominionlending.ca/

Who to believe? A shill for a lending company OR Someone who is responsible for a 17 billion investment portfolio

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/pimco-sells-canadian-government-bonds-blames-poloz-for-confusion/article23354439/

Time for a shower……..

#18 omg the original on 03.09.15 at 7:30 pm

JUST TO RESTATE IT

The only catalyst that will hit Canadain real estate is a meaningful increase in mortgage rates (by meanful I do not mean a 2% increase.)

And the way the Canadian economy is going we will not see a meaningful increase in rates anytime within the next couple years.

But once the world economy takes off, which it inevitably will, rates will be pressed back up to long-term normal. And housing in Canada will start its long-term decline back to normal long-run values (which in TO and YVR is about 1/2 or less of what they are today)

It won’t happen quickly so change your expectations and keep renting and investing your savings.

And enjoy your weekends while your homeowner friends are cleaning out theirs eaves and getting quotes on a new roof.

#19 Linda on 03.09.15 at 7:33 pm

Instead of ‘Yes, Virginia, there IS a Santa Claus’ we have ‘Yes, Virginia, there IS a Satan’. Their name is legion & it begins with an R. Though to be fair, these people are just trying to make a living & who knows? Maybe the successful ones have sold their souls to the devil!

#20 Andrew on 03.09.15 at 7:33 pm

Garth,

One of the key tenets of investing is to buy low, sell high. Two years ago, buying American stocks would have been a brilliant idea. But has the debt/economy situation in Canada been sewn into Canadian stock prices yet? Is now a time to buy low on Canadian stocks?

#21 Mr.Millenial on 03.09.15 at 7:34 pm

Boooya!!!

#22 Mike on 03.09.15 at 7:35 pm

Whoever says Vancouver and Toronto world class cities like NYC, Chicago, London and SF – what a load of Cr*p…..

#23 Godth on 03.09.15 at 7:35 pm

To borrow a Russian expression – a pessimist is someone who thinks things can’t get any worse, an optimist is someone who knows they can.

Sub-prime loans and teaser rates, I really have to laugh when I try to empathize with these folks and what they must be thinking. Surreal shit at this stage of the game, but of course the macro game itself is surreal in so many respects now and not just real estate.

#24 betamax on 03.09.15 at 7:38 pm

Compared to Americans, Canadians seem remarkably complacent about getting ripped off, whether it’s on the price of phone contracts, gas, taxes, or food.

Housing prices seem to me just a larger example of our seemingly endless capacity to get ripped off, then enthusiastically enquire: May I have another, sir!

#25 Lillooet, BC on 03.09.15 at 7:42 pm

The short and sweet answer to Peter’s question is: no, you will never be able to afford a single-family home in Vancouver or Toronto – maybe one of YVRs suburbs, but then expect commuter hell. Or you may be able to afford a tiny condo for half a mil. In any case you will be a debt slave.

The alternative, of course is to be smart like me and give up on city life, move to a small or mid-size town (there are thousands across Canada) where single family homes are affordable. Just as an example, my pathetic little town called Lillooet has been a balmy +19 C the last two days. T-shirt and sunglasses weather already. And there are plenty of 2 and 3 bedroom homes for under $200k.

http://weather.gc.ca/trends_table/pages/wkf_metric_e.html

Heard at the water cooler today:

“London Life, famous for it’s “Freedom 55” package, is putting together a package for people living in Toronto and Vancity called “Freedom 95″ because that’s how long you’ll have to wait before you’ll be able to retire.”

#26 I'm stupid on 03.09.15 at 7:46 pm

#3 Capt. Obvious

That won’t happen here because developers can sell homes or condos before they’re built. So they wait for sales and take deposits before anything gets built. We also have recourse mortgages so if the buyer doesn’t want to close the deal after the home is built they get sued.

#27 Brian Ripley on 03.09.15 at 7:46 pm

“Or, you can stay liquid and stay alive.” Garth

One way is to rent. I have built a new chart to provide a monthly snapshot of rental ads for Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa & Montreal via Craigslist, Kijiji and Airbnb

http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html#Rentals

In a few months after I have collected a bit more data we might be able to see some trends emerge.

I will have my sales, listings and absorption rate charts updated later this evening.

#28 LazyJason on 03.09.15 at 7:50 pm

Could the increase in mortgage debt in January be attributed to people increasing their HELOCs to cover off other types of consumer debt, especially post holidays?

#29 nonplused on 03.09.15 at 7:54 pm

Some days I think we are doomed because we are all so stupid.

Some examples:

Nuclear weapons (yikes!)
Nuclear power plants with nuclear weapons aimed at them (double yikes!)
Hockey
Sub-prime loans
Genetically modified bee killers
Me-first people
Creationists
Terrorists
Airplanes
Exploding trains
NSA computer hacking
The Apple watch

I could go on but I am already too depressed.

Speaking of the Apple watch i understand it will be made of gold. So at least it will be worth something when it stops working, unlike the stupid iPhone 3GS we have here.

#30 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.09.15 at 7:54 pm

Toronto a world class city? World class traffic jams maybe.

I was up recently for a Leaf game (earlier this year before they started sucking). We left from old Georgetown for the game at 5 pm. We drove to the Kipling Subway station and took the train to the ACC. Took almost two hours to go that driving distance on a Friday afternoon. The funny part was that the locals were happy that traffic was “moving”.

I’ll stay here in the Windsor area, thanks. Easy commutes, big city across the river if you need it, and house prices that are what normal people can afford.

#31 Hm Uuuh... on 03.09.15 at 7:56 pm

“Record family debt levels, subprime borrowing, teaser loans and house lust. If that sounds a lot like Miami or Phoenix in 2005, it should” – does that mean you don’t expect to see a sharp reversal for another two years?

#32 Whitby on 03.09.15 at 7:56 pm

Waterloo resident:

Can you please tell me what trading software you are using, the autopilot function caught my interest

Thanks

#33 james on 03.09.15 at 7:57 pm

#14 pathcontrolmonk

Seattle schools are hit and miss. Many schools in Seattle proper are very iffy, to the point where parents deliberately move to the north shore school district to avoid them (e.g., Bothell, Mill Creek). Schools in some urban areas like Queen Anne are great, because there are a ton of wealthy, educated parents who won’t accept any nonsense (as in Palo Alto).

Other areas, on the other hand, are public school nightmare territory. Part of buying a home here is figuring out which school cachement areas land you in hot water.

#34 John on 03.09.15 at 7:59 pm

http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/1273628-atlantic-region-leads-drop-in-new-home-starts

#35 james on 03.09.15 at 8:00 pm

“Our taxes are also higher.”

I’m not so sure about that. I was having this discussion with some dual citizens who have lived in California, NY, Washington and BC. They believe (and this is consistent with my own experience) that California taxes are worse for people who make decent amounts of money. I found California worse than Ontario. It’s hard to compare, though, because of writeoffs, exemptions, etc etc. Washington State is certainly better than BC.

#36 landlessinvan on 03.09.15 at 8:05 pm

I agree with some of today’s posters. Vancouver IS a world-class city, and many think this. I have read this blog since its inception and watched prices, watched teardowns become mansions, watched laneways spring up everywhere, watched the East Side homes become completely unaffordable. I just don’t think the prices will ever come down on Vancouver homes (and I am not talking about Greater Vancouver).

Being over-priced has nothing to do with being world-class. — Garth

#37 BG on 03.09.15 at 8:05 pm

No need to be a world class city to permanently price the average Joe out of a comfortable home centrally located. Let alone a SFH.

I agree prices are too high and risk is too high.
But in the Toronto downtown area, SFH will never be affordable again. Not even decently sized condos.

#38 BlackDog on 03.09.15 at 8:07 pm

@SmokingMan from Garth’s last blog entry

re: #250, in event of an attack(coming eventually like the housing correction/crash or whatever you want to call it), perhaps fewer ruffians, and more effective communicators would make a good defense.

re: #252, flattery will get you somewhere, perhaps you need a good editor.

#39 takla on 03.09.15 at 8:08 pm

so can someone tell me just how the unregulated Canadian banking Industry in Canada is ANY different then the realestate Industry?
You’ve got bank govenor of Canada “dropping interest rates” At this perilous time further inflateing the grossly overinflated realestate bubble feeding the unregulated realestate industry.
Pure folly…..white collar crooks are alive and well in Canada waiting for the next great asset confiscation event…your foreclosed home will be the banks asset soon….wake up sheeple this games been played before!

#40 Trojan House on 03.09.15 at 8:08 pm

#30 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.09.15 at 7:54 pm

Your first mistake was being a Leafs fan.

#41 Smoking Man on 03.09.15 at 8:09 pm

The answer is simple. It’s no. Canada has some cool places to live, but Toronto is not NYC, and sure as hell not London or Tokyo. Vancouver is not San Francisco or HK, Beijing, or even Seoul. The comparisons are weird and parochial.
……….

Very well said Garth, but you can’t egnore 2000 people make the GTA home every month.

If you head to Niagara on a Friday afternoon in the winter, you need to leave by 2 or its parking lot from 427 to Hamilton. Just a few years ago you could leave at 4pm no problem.

Hence your demand, and single family digs near the city the supply, not much around.

You talk about illiquid, W06 days on market, 21..

Way I see it, if you got a good gig in the city, you will pay a premium to avoid commuter hell and caos.

Not NYC yet, but in that direction.. I guess Brampton will be New Jersey soon.

But then again… We have the Wyeen factor.

#42 deaner on 03.09.15 at 8:10 pm

The newcomers to Vancouver really seem to fall for the “we’re number 1 because the local newspaper says so” Kool-aid the hardest.

Ilovecharts – Scenery? After a few years, most people go skiing and water-skiing seldom enough they might as well live in Winnipeg.

The other day there was a report from iMercer about how Van is #1 in quality of life in North America. Of course this press release was widely circulated as news.

However, the report was actually about how corporations should set premiums for staff relocated to other cities. Staff sent to Vancouver should get the lowest premiums in North America. Obviously the articles didn’t discuss the methodology of the report, which you have to buy to see.

That said, I wonder if the low pay premium has anything to do with the brutal wages (particularly for anything requiring an undergrad) in Vancouver.

#43 No Catchy Moniker on 03.09.15 at 8:16 pm

I found this article interesting:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/imf-calls-for-more-data-tighter-standards-in-canadas-housing-market/article23378421/

It talks about the poor oversight of the financial sector involving housing, no surprise. But also that up to 2/3 of new mortgages are now “uninsured” at least by the borrower. Less risk to taxpayer? Probably not: “Uninsured buyers are considered more secure because they have more equity in their homes, but they still pose a risk to taxpayers given many lenders take out CMHC bulk insurance on their portfolios of uninsured mortgages in order to package them into mortgage-backed securities”.

#44 BlackDog on 03.09.15 at 8:18 pm

Don’t do it Peter. Second most stupid thing I did in my life was buy my first house in 1989 in Hamilton. I remember trying to sleep that night, tossing and turning after the papers were signed (while the 48 hour buyer’s remorse clause was still in effect) as my less-concerned other half snored. Wait.

#45 West Coast on 03.09.15 at 8:24 pm

I sometimes start my day at 7am watching our ‘Property Virgin’ host, Sandra R., talk to buyers in Dallas, Cincinnati, Austin, Boston etc. I don’t have the stomach to watch the Canadian episodes of Property Virgins. Sandra sure seems a lot more relaxed and happy selling to US virgins where people are buying houses within their means and where buyers still consider $100,000 to be quite a lot of money.
It’s a pleasure not to hear her say, ” Don’t worry about the price, just concentrate on your monthly payment.” American buyers can discuss the total price of the house (as in “$120,000. – that’s a lot!!”) and can appreciate the amount of debt they are assuming. How refreshing!

#46 Nagraj on 03.09.15 at 8:27 pm

#17 Rainclouds
I seem to recall reading PIMCO’s Devlin’s remarks re Canadian bonds earlier this morning in Bloomberg. Did The National Post decorate the re-write with Ms Cooper . . .
What caught my attention was the preference expressed by Devlin for Canadian provincial bonds – I don’t understand that. What’s so great about Ontario paper?

As for central banks telegraphing their rate moves – there’ve been plenty of surprises. Life’s just full of ’em, eh?

On a related topic: how are the latest construction stats goin’ over in the PMO?

#47 old gringo on 03.09.15 at 8:31 pm

I find it both sad and interesting how residents of cities in Canada assume that because they live there and would never move, it makes it the best place to live in the world.
You really need to spread your wings and soar my little doves. Life is meant to be lived and it is a big world outside your comfort zone.

#48 BlackDog on 03.09.15 at 8:32 pm

Peter, do you know what is really annoying about your question?

You have a wealth of information available at your fingertips, and yet still you wonder.

There was no internet in 1989 when I screwed up – only parents who wondered when I would grow up and buy a house.

If you screw up, you will have no one to blame but yourself.

#49 Canadian in Portland on 03.09.15 at 8:32 pm

Vancouver is more expensive than San Francisco without the hundreds of internet companies. Actually, how many corporate large caps have their corporate headquarters in Vancouver?

And, Toronto is no new york financial center, yet its approaching the same costs?

insane

#50 ILoveCharts on 03.09.15 at 8:33 pm

@ deaner

Some people don’t take advantage of the mountains but many do.

#51 Mean Gene on 03.09.15 at 8:39 pm

One would have to travel to world class cities also known as global cities to get a better understanding and look less foolish. London England and NYC are the top dogs, followed by HK, Paris, Singapore, Shanghai, Tokyo, Beijing, Sydney and Dubai.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_city

#52 Fred on 03.09.15 at 8:44 pm

In Toronto (GTA), the Liberals enacted a “green belt” to stop urban sprawl. This has resulted in an intensification in the region that has fed the condo boom and probably helped drive up SFH prices (less supply)

#53 Van Isle Renter on 03.09.15 at 8:45 pm

Van and TO are not world class cities. Go some place like Nigeria and ask ten people if they know what country New York is in.

Then ask them if they know what country Toronto or Van are in.

Case closed.

#54 Timing is Everything on 03.09.15 at 8:45 pm

Whad’ya mean Toronto’s not a world class city…eh?

http://tinyurl.com/pfzwqw2

#55 Smoking Man on 03.09.15 at 8:50 pm

#44 BlackDog on 03.09.15 at 8:18 pm
Don’t do it Peter. Second most stupid thing I did in my life was buy my first house in 1989 in Hamilton. I remember trying to sleep that night, tossing and turning after the papers were signed (while the 48 hour buyer’s remorse clause was still in effect) as my less-concerned other half snored. Wait.
………

I’m intrigued, 99% of the time, wife sleeps like a princess, dreaming and having vivid fantasy about showing of the Granet, and stainless. While hubby crapping his shorts thinking about how he’s going to pay for this. Planning his overtime. His part time business just so he can have a beer on the weekend.

How did you come up with black dog..im think a Black Labrador?

#56 screwed on 03.09.15 at 8:57 pm

#14 comparing Van and Sea

“Seattle (Seattle/Bellevue/Tacoma) = 3.6 mil, GDP USD 800 bil, avg house price 400k”

Compare downtown Van and downtown Seattle and you get much closer.

Microsoft is in Van because the cost of labor is cheaper.

Hollywood North is booming because of the favorable exchange rate as well.

Vancouver prices are here to stay. They’re high and they will go higher as our Dollar goes down further and more Chinese buyers come into the city.

Mark my words. Greater Vancouver RE prices are never going down unless the entire world economy collapses.

At that point, it doesn’t matter.

#57 John on 03.09.15 at 8:58 pm

Housing in the GTA is poised for a massive surprise. Expect things to seize up suddenly. We’ll see how March unfolds. It’s massively overpriced!

#58 screwed on 03.09.15 at 9:03 pm

Vancouver is the only North American city among the top ten cities where people like to live according to a recent Mercer study.

1)Vienna
2)Zurich
3)Auckland
4)Munich
5)Vancouver

http://www.mercer.com/content/mercer/global/all/en/newsroom/2014-quality-of-living-survey.html

Try owning in either Zurich or Munich.

Vancouver may not be “world class” but the whole world would like to have a residence here.

#59 Housing Down on 03.09.15 at 9:04 pm

Do you have an estimation of how much correction in toronto urban markets? Areas close to subways and amenties? Bloor West, High Park, Sunnylea as examples. No new land for single family houses, so new new supply. Is demand because of population growth wanting to be in these 100 year old homes? Couldn’t believe the number of people at open houses this weekend.

#60 Obvious Truth on 03.09.15 at 9:04 pm

Stick around Peter. Keep reading the comments. You’ll be a screw up like the rest of us in no time.

#61 prairieboy43 on 03.09.15 at 9:04 pm

A good real estate agent, can sell property on the moon. You get world class views. No pollution or noise. Perfect.

#62 DM in C on 03.09.15 at 9:06 pm

Reading about school cachment sites and places to bring up kids make me really really happy we oop’sd our kids in our early 20’s.

At 43 & 45 one is already moved out and one is in HS. Only 5 more years of worrying about where we live ‘for the kids’.

Unlike my brothers, who at 44 and 41 respectively, have newborns. Oy vey. I can’t imagine. I truly can’t.

#63 boss hog on 03.09.15 at 9:09 pm

If real estate collapses, the stock markets will collapse. In the US, housing dropped 40% and stocks immediately dropped 60%. So the notion that one should invest in a balanced fund because real estate is headed for a big fall makes no sense. So if you think real estate is going down, Keep your money away from market risk and financial advisors’ outrageous fees and stay in cash.

There is no direct correlation between the domestic housing market and the equities market. — Garth

#64 McExpat on 03.09.15 at 9:09 pm

@52 Gene…..please don’t include Dubai in your list of top world cities. I was in the Gulf for a decade. It most certainly does not deserve to be included in any esteemed lists…..It could make Many other lists for human rights violations, corruption, greed, and property bubbles. It’s a first world crust with a third world filling….

#65 TurnerNation on 03.09.15 at 9:10 pm

BBD.B was a steal at 2.32 today. Oops I said this several days ago.

Blog photo 2 days ago was of Bytor (Biter?) the Snow Dog. Scary stuff.

Yesterday’s photo is Smoking man outside his fetid Long Branch bung in his ‘pool’, on the lookout for UFOs.

#66 Washed Up Lawyer on 03.09.15 at 9:11 pm

I am loathe to comment on “world class” anything. What does the phrase mean? I get sick of the phrase because anytime an Alberta politician trots off to Washington or Europe to counter bad impressions of oil sands oil they yammer on about world class environmental protections, regulatory processes, GHG reductions and the like. Yes it is better here than in Nigeria, Angola and Russia. But, it is meaningless.

I’ll enter the debate:

Best rodeo in the world – Calgary
Best snowmobiling – Revelstoke? Prince George? (Slednecks – Please chime in.)
Best full scale model of East Berlin prior to the fall of the Wall in 1989 – Edmonton

World class each in their own respect.

#67 Obvious Truth on 03.09.15 at 9:14 pm

Housing starts is now a multi month trend. Bad news for the second and third largest parts of the economy.

Garth it seems is slowly developing the story. He knows how it likely ends. Everyone wants to get to the to the conclusion too quickly.

Let the plot develop folks.

#68 Obvious Truth on 03.09.15 at 9:19 pm

Imagine what a 5% haircut on that enormous debt would cost Canadians. Then find out how much it took to sink Ireland and spike rates.

This is serious stuff.

#69 observer on 03.09.15 at 9:22 pm

Notice after the 2% report on foreign investors (most from the US) several months ago. That there are no long stories of the asians buying up all of canada.

#70 Capt. Obvious on 03.09.15 at 9:23 pm

Ottawa has world class canal skating. Especially with the exquisitely cold winter this year. If skating a long way before you need to turn back appeals, Ottawa could be the place for you!

#71 BlackDog on 03.09.15 at 9:27 pm

Speaking of communications and the internet, it is really pretty cool, that people who otherwise would never get the opportunity, never mind the nerve to discourse with each other, have the most amazing opportunity to do so currently.

For example, the current crowd-funded lawsuit by Canadian citizens against the Canadian government for overriding Canadian rights and freedoms with American law (FATCA) would never have happened without the ability of common people to communicate, and organize via the internet.

Power to the people, including Peter.

#72 Washed Up Lawyer on 03.09.15 at 9:28 pm

Okay. Okay. Don’t get too riled up about my Edmonton comment. Just a cheap shot. Born there. Raised there. Started my career there. Lot’s of good things about the city.

#73 ShawnG in TO on 03.09.15 at 9:30 pm

to those who say (or actually believe) high RE price is here to stay, here’s a link for ya:

https://twitter.com/GreekFire23/status/573148229350637568

Hmmmm…

#74 Gandolf McVernon on 03.09.15 at 9:32 pm

Garth, If the USA starts raising rates (in June as you say) will the cost burden of servicing their debt go up with it, making it more burdensome for The Government to pay its bills? How high can the Fed raise rates before the debt burden is too heavy for Uncle Sam?

They make the money, dude. — Garth

#75 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.09.15 at 9:33 pm

#41 Smoking Man on 03.09.15 at 8:09 pm
The answer is simple. It’s no. Canada has some cool places to live, but Toronto is not NYC, and sure as hell not London or Tokyo. Vancouver is not San Francisco or HK, Beijing, or even Seoul. The comparisons are weird and parochial.
……….

Very well said Garth, but you can’t egnore 2000 people make the GTA home every month.

If you head to Niagara on a Friday afternoon in the winter, you need to leave by 2 or its parking lot from 427 to Hamilton. Just a few years ago you could leave at 4pm no problem.

Hence your demand, and single family digs near the city the supply, not much around.

You talk about illiquid, W06 days on market, 21..

Way I see it, if you got a good gig in the city, you will pay a premium to avoid commuter hell and caos.

Not NYC yet, but in that direction.. I guess Brampton will be New Jersey soon.

But then again… We have the Wyeen factor
———————————–
Smoking man, have you been to Brampton lately. It will never ever be a New Jersey to New York City!
More like a suburb of Mumbi!

#76 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.09.15 at 9:33 pm

Sorry Brampton!!!

#77 Smoking Man on 03.09.15 at 9:35 pm

#64 TurnerNation on 03.09.15 at 9:10 pm
BBD.B was a steal at 2.32 today. Oops I said this several days ago.

Blog photo 2 days ago was of Bytor (Biter?) the Snow Dog. Scary stuff.

Yesterday’s photo is Smoking man outside his fetid Long Branch bung in his ‘pool’, on the lookout for UFOs
……..

Close, but I would never be caught dead in such a shitty Fedora, and the glasses all wrong.. Everything else close.

TN I do have pyhcic powers, just yesterday I proclaimed the state will launch an assault on the male.

From the Wynne’s twitter account, an absolute slap in the face to woman, portraying them all dumb helpless victims. At the same time Demoizing anything with a dangler.

She is the master at deflection, got to hand it to her, Levin, deleted emails.. Mean nothing now..

She must be secretly coming here and getting Smoking Man Lessons.

Your tax dollars hard at work.

Ps, if any of these dudes in the video did this to my Scottish wife, they would be eating out of a starw for months.

Ah, poor helpless woman.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=c2ZSZrGc-O8&feature=youtu.be

#78 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.09.15 at 9:35 pm

Okay all you people out there I attended the iWatch conference today. It’s a winner it will definitely make money for Apple.

#79 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.09.15 at 9:36 pm

Smoking Man put your UCC or whatever in gear on APPL

#80 Freedom First on 03.09.15 at 9:38 pm

The end is near. The Greater Fools are taking out teaser sub-prime loans to get into the Great Canadian Housing Bubble. I don’t think this is going to work out well.

I wouldn’t do anything to put myself in a vulnerable financial position. There is never a reason to do so. No exception.

#81 Marco on 03.09.15 at 9:40 pm

Thanks Garth another great read.

@ ILoveCharts

Agreed Vancouver is scenic but so is Seattle and Portland on the same coast, and their real estate is cheaper and wages higher, with more industry. I think Vancouver is wedged in between these two cities as far as grading cities. Was in London UK this year and man you just know you’re in a world class city. T.O. doesn’t even come close.
If you are saying Vancouver real estate is justifiably overvalued due to our scenery, and people are willing to pay for scenery, I can’t agree because of the wage to mortgage ratio.

#82 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.09.15 at 9:42 pm

Our corporate phone was Blackberry for years until the advent of the second gen iPhone. We jumped in and unloaded Blackberrry for Apple. Don’t get me wrong Blackberry was a solid product but apple left them in the dust for productivity. Corporately we have decided to purchase iWatches for all of our staff that currently have iPhones. They are very inconspicuous when at clients, or in meetings and can provide instant updates at a glance. It’s a productivity thing! I see this gadget making tons of cash for APPL!

#83 Darryl on 03.09.15 at 9:44 pm

#6 Retired Boomer – WI on 03.09.15 at 7:14 pm
I really get a charge out of watching my northerly neighbors burying themselves in dubious house debt.

Maybe you will come out of it all right. Toronto is not a bad city, just has an awful main artery. Hamilton will grow anew after steel. Even Oshawa will grow after GM l.eaves town, as Oakville will do after Ford has a better idea somewhere else.

All things being equal, they never are equal. That’s why I am amused, and you have never seen a large property gasbag deflate.
——————————————————–
Boomer

Technically , I don’t think Toronto or Hamilton is north of Wisconsin. Or at least a good chunk of WI. Hamilton and Milwaukee look to be about the same latitude.

Just sayin. :)

#84 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.09.15 at 9:48 pm

Okay smoking man, you keep bringing up Wynn. I have to say I give you great admiration for at least constantly bringing up her name! The people of Ontario are idiots for not jumping all over her for the liberal power plant fiascos. I live in one of the ridings where they canceled the gas plant pure back door politics as crappy as it ever gets. Don’t ever let us forget that name Wynn.
Jesus Christ what the hell were the people of this province thinking when they elected the liberals again!

#85 Mean Gene on 03.09.15 at 9:49 pm

@63 McExpat

Noted, I am only regurgitating what I read, Dubai is not a pleasant place, as noted by you.

Salam alaikum.

#86 Smoking Man on 03.09.15 at 9:50 pm

#72 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.09.15 at 9:36 pm
Smoking Man put your UCC or whatever in gear on APPL
….
Appl is the favorite of the stupid, easy, simple, satisfaction for celebrity worshippers. No free apps at the I store.

Now Android, zillions of free apps, a bit harder, but by economy, it’s a now brainer for me.

I vote for stupid, they can’t lose. Hell my kid can build apps in android now, but he’s spending 12k for an IOS boot camp.
Learning to build iPhone apps.

Kids not an idiot, he’s betting on stupid.

Does that answer it.

#87 paul andrews on 03.09.15 at 9:53 pm

being in my late 50’s, and having gone through the real estate correction of the late 80’s – remember the 30 % haircut to home values in the GTA – never mind cowtown, that happened almost over nite, it feels like dejavu all over from what i can see, our government has to review chmc’s mandate ( to assist first time home buyers to enter the market) how they started underwriting purchases upto a million dollars is beyond me, i think they need to reduce the maximum purchase price to 500K eligibility and require a minimum down payment of 25% not borrowed this would set the stage for a controlled cooling of our overheated and dangerous over extension of government insured ( read you and me the taxpayers) mortgage insurance debt, any body in the capitol listening ? with a budget due the time for action is now, not closing the gate after he horse got away.

#88 Timing is Everything on 03.09.15 at 9:54 pm

#65 Washed Up Lawyer – I am loathe to comment on “world class” anything. What does the phrase mean?

Good point. World-class…?

http://tinyurl.com/kojtns7
http://tinyurl.com/n2oy32v
http://tinyurl.com/lr7fujv

Terms are tossed around and have different meanings to people. This is a world-class entertainment blog to some. To others, a world-class waste of cyberspace.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

#89 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.09.15 at 9:57 pm

Further to the Wynn win and the liberals. Smoking Man next election I would vote for you rather than the gutless bunch of swill feeding backdoor low down pond scum options that will be on the docket next round. At least you say what you say, right or wrong you don’t waver! BTW if I wanted teachers telling my children about all of this adult alternative lifestyle crap, sex, self gratification then I would tell them to keep my kids. Hell I can destroy their innocence as easy as anyone too!

#90 Balmuto on 03.09.15 at 9:59 pm

People on this blog debating whether or not we’ll have permanently high prices in Toronto and Vancouver is probably a sign that the top is in. RE bears contemplating complete capitulation. It’s a sign.

#91 BG on 03.09.15 at 10:01 pm

#47 old gringo on 03.09.15 at 8:31 pm

I find it both sad and interesting how residents of cities in Canada assume that because they live there and would never move, it makes it the best place to live in the world.
You really need to spread your wings and soar my little doves. Life is meant to be lived and it is a big world outside your comfort zone.
——————————————————————

I guess the sound of your arrogance makes it hard for you to think and consider that people might actually like it here.

#92 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.09.15 at 10:02 pm

Smoking Man that’s what I’m saying Apple is a bonfied money maker all the way. No free rides with Apple, you pay for everything. It’s definitely a quality product, had one of our units go bad, walked into Apple store, boom no questions, up and running with a new unit completely restored with all data in a half hour. That’s what you pay for with Apple.

#93 Andrew Woburn on 03.09.15 at 10:02 pm

#14 pathcontrolmonk on 03.09.15 at 7:23 pm
It is embarassing to compare YVR to SFO, so lets try the closest American cousin instead, Seattle.
===================

Not disagreeing, but there are other factors to take into account in comparing Seattle/Vancouver land prices. The cities diverged in their approach to the automobile. Seattle built expressways to allow reasonable access to the far suburbs and exurbs. Vancouver refused to build expressways. Today both cities suffer from auto congestion, but according to Google, you can expect to drive the 30 miles from Seattle to Everett in about 40 minutes. From Vancouver, the 40 miles to Abbotsford will take an hour and 15 minutes. Granted these are both optimistic numbers in rush hour. The point is commuting from Everett is doable, at least by GTA standards. Commuting from Abbotsford is torture. This is one reason why people will pay more to live closer to Vancouver than Seattle. The other geographical factor is that greater Vancouver is wedged into a funnel between mountain ranges whereas Seattle commuters can travel north or south. It isn’t all HAM or monumental stupidity.

#94 Joe2.0 on 03.09.15 at 10:03 pm

I’ve spoken to a load of people from the UK who want to come to Canada or who have because they don’t like the shira laws that are condoned in over 60 courts in the UK.
They say there is a civil uprising brewing and they want no part of it.
Walking on the beach today in MX ran into a couple from Wales, they said the exact same thing.

#95 Smoking Man on 03.09.15 at 10:03 pm

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Now that is blood cool, especially if you’ve had a few..

Nice job timing is everything..
How can anyone go to another blog.

This place rocks.

#96 Smoking Man on 03.09.15 at 10:10 pm

#83 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.09.15 at 9:48 pm

Jesus Christ what the hell were the people of this province thinking when they elected the liberals again!
………..

It all started in JK.. Wynee gets caught with her fingers in the cookie jar, she just starts talking like a teacher..

The brain washed comply.. It’s perfect actually.

She’s got herd figure out like a master chess player.

Reminds me of a little town in South America called Jones Town.

#97 No Canada, No on 03.09.15 at 10:12 pm

Oh, just admit it – how many time you’ve heard this from your coworkers gathered at water cooler: “Yeaaah, Toronto has no choice but to become a word class city next to New York. Maybe in 5, max 10 years. But, of course, its going to be much better and nicer”.

Errrr, can anybody imagine New York city and like booom – their is a mississauga in 20 minutes?! New York and Missi-ducking-Sauga, bhahaha! It’s not even Harlem or Brooklyn, it’s ducking mississauga!

But wait, there is more to Toronto’s New York! Brampton, Scarborough – those are just wealthy suburbs, Richmodhill is a Fifth Avenue fighting with Bloor Street for most expensive stores. The Beaches are definitely The New Hamptons, but of course it is much better than a crappy real Hamptons “ocean” – it got real lake and, can you imagine, a nuclear power station just nearby!

Oh boy, can’t wait for this New York on Ontario Lake. This is going to be permanent comedy city, unless Missi-ducking-sauga takes over it – then it’s a tragedy.

#98 Don on 03.09.15 at 10:13 pm

#18 omg the original on 03.09.15 at 7:30 pm

JUST TO RESTATE IT

The only catalyst that will hit Canadain real estate is a meaningful increase in mortgage rates (by meanful I do not mean a 2% increase.)

And the way the Canadian economy is going we will not see a meaningful increase in rates anytime within the next couple years.

But once the world economy takes off, which it inevitably will, rates will be pressed back up to long-term normal. And housing in Canada will start its long-term decline back to normal long-run values (which in TO and YVR is about 1/2 or less of what they are today)

It won’t happen quickly so change your expectations and keep renting and investing your savings.

And enjoy your weekends while your homeowner friends are cleaning out theirs eaves and getting quotes on a new roof

***********************************
The only catalyst…increased rates??

How about to much debt and loss of a job. How about increased stress due to debt resulting in divorce.

What was the cause of the US collapse – I don’t remember it being a spike in rates……..(spoke is rolling in his grave).

#99 Smoking Man on 03.09.15 at 10:13 pm

#91 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.09.15 at 10:02 pm
Smoking Man that’s what I’m saying Apple is a bonfied money maker all the way. No free rides with Apple, you pay for everything. It’s definitely a quality product, had one of our units go bad, walked into Apple store, boom no questions, up and running with a new unit completely restored with all data in a half hour. That’s what you pay for with Apple.
…….
Tone it down a bit,, obviously your well invested in apple, projecting loudly. Not a bad bet all the same.

#100 Don on 03.09.15 at 10:14 pm

Oops should have read “Spok is rolling in his grave”

#101 Washed Up Lawyer on 03.09.15 at 10:18 pm

# 87 Timing is Everything

Noted. Thanks. The first link says a lot. It should include Revelstoke. Great place.

#102 Ret on 03.09.15 at 10:20 pm

#52 Intensification

intensification is all about big developers who make big political contributions to municipal and provincial election campaigns.

We’re holding the line on development! (Well, at least until our developer friends can buy up the land in question and then we can expand the urban boundary and re-zone it for them!)

Developers get the gold, taxpayers get to pay for the overloaded infrastructure, subways, and traffic chaos that ensues.

#103 Brew on 03.09.15 at 10:34 pm

#82 Daryl

The Hammer is 0.2 degrees further north than Milwaukee.

#104 Karma on 03.09.15 at 10:41 pm

#27 Brian Ripley on 03.09.15 at 7:46 pm
“One way is to rent. I have built a new chart to provide a monthly snapshot of rental ads for Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa & Montreal via Craigslist, Kijiji and Airbnb

http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html#Rentals

In a few months after I have collected a bit more data we might be able to see some trends emerge.

I will have my sales, listings and absorption rate charts updated later this evening.”

Interesting chart, Brian.

Will you be able to filter out the doubles eventually? That would be great.

Keep up the good work.

#105 Chris on 03.09.15 at 10:45 pm

My husband and I are above median income in Toronto and we are renting a house now. Got good deal on it. We have two small children and it is not easy to save. I don’t understand how people can buy million dollar homes, have kids and manage to stay afloat. What I also don’t get is that people are willing to take on 30 years of debt with 5 year loans. That is very risky. I mean you should always match the life of your liability with the life of you asset, right? What if banks change on you, either their lending policies or rates inevitably. In the U.S. people can get 30 year fixed rate loan for 4% or something like that. Here 10 year fixed rate goes to 6%-7% or so? With a 30 year fixed rate loan, there is no renewal hurdle to cross and people are sure what their payment is every month. And I can see that makes people horny to buy real estate. But with 5 year loan which you have to cross the renewal hurdle and face a rate adjustment/changing payment every 5 years? That is crazy. I don’t get it. And Canadian banks are as greedy as U.S. banks so when SHTF they are only going to do what is in their best interest. So being held hostage by Canadian banks would be no fun when the time gets tough.

#106 tkid on 03.09.15 at 10:46 pm

#98 Smoking Man, I had the same experience as the other fella. Iphone 4’s home button stopped working. Walked into the Apple Store, lucked into a free slow with their tech support. Tech checks out the phone, says it is no good. They have me back up my contacts etc to the icloud via wifi while they get me a new phone from the back.

20 minutes later I walked out of the store with a new phone that had all my data on it. I had the apple protection plan so I paid absolutely nothing.

It was my best support experience ever.

#107 BG on 03.09.15 at 10:48 pm

I don’t see Toronto as a world class city but unless I was bloody rich I would pick it over NY or Paris as a city to live in.

World class cities are good for tourism or a couple of decadent years.

Canadian cities may not be the most exciting in the world, but they have other in demand qualities that I would sum up by “livable”.

The harsh weather or the bloated RE market will not change the fact that Canada is a quite popular country for immigrants from both third and first world countries.
And the way European first world countries are going will not help change that trend.

As you may (not) know, Canada offers a Work Holiday Program to many nationalities.
These programs have never been so popular. The limited spot usually get filled in a few minutes after they become available.

The way I see it, it does not matter if Toronto does not offer NYC’s culture, leisure or architecture. Canada would have to get upside down before Toronto’s RE market corrects in a meaningful way.

#108 Andrew Woburn on 03.09.15 at 10:54 pm

Okay, but still … why would you buy a negative interest bond?

http://www.vox.com/2015/2/5/7981461/negative-interest-rates-europe

#109 The teaser | Realties.ca on 03.09.15 at 10:55 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/03/09/the-teaser/ […]

#110 bdy sktrn on 03.09.15 at 10:59 pm

#53 Van Isle Renter on 03.09.15 at 8:45 pm
Van and TO are not world class cities. Go some place like Nigeria and ask ten people if they know what country New York is in.

Then ask them if they know what country Toronto or Van are in.

Case closed.
—————————————
sure. makes sense.

but then try it in Asia and ask the nearly 2 BILLION folks there , and most can tell you plenty about vancouver.

i spent a year in tokyo talking to the locals and they were well aware of vancouvers assets.

#111 2-city country on 03.09.15 at 11:00 pm

Vancouver is more expensive than San Francisco without the hundreds of internet companies. Actually, how many corporate large caps have their corporate headquarters in Vancouver?

And, Toronto is no new york financial center, yet its approaching the same costs?

insane

=========

If you are interested in Canada, there is no better New York then TO and no better San Francisco here than VAN. And you will have to pay premium for it, even if 80% of the country is “empty” and the whole comparison is insane.

#112 Alpha Bravo on 03.09.15 at 11:06 pm

41 Smoking Man

Way I see it, if you got a good gig in the city, you will pay a premium to avoid commuter hell.

————-

No joke.

#113 BS on 03.09.15 at 11:09 pm

The answer is simple. It’s no. Canada has some cool places to live, but Toronto is not NYC, and sure as hell not London or Tokyo. Vancouver is not San Francisco or HK, Beijing, or even Seoul. The comparisons are weird and parochial.

The attractiveness of these cities is subjective and different for different people. Personally I like Vancouver. That does not make Vancouver real estate prices fair value because I happen to like the city. The best way to determine if RE prices are fair is to calculate their income potential or price to rent. This is where Vancouver fails miserably when compared to the other cities mentioned. The price to rent confirms the RE prices in Vancouver are in a bubble. Nothing to do with Vancouver being world class or not. Price to rent tells the story.

#114 Retired Boomer - WI on 03.09.15 at 11:11 pm

#82 Darryl

Technically, true that Windsor, Toronto, Hamilton may not be “north” of where I post, but Winnipeg, Edmonton, North Bay, surely are. By area, there is a lot more of Canada ‘north’ of me than ‘south’ of me, same can be said for Minnesota, and Michigan.

Where else, but Wisconsin could you take numerous marked east-west roads to go north, or south? Yes, we are directionally challenged, but we often know which way the wind is blowing.

Freedom First – still like your posts, I don’t care if the messages -warnings- peeve others. They are true!

A ‘world class blog’….. can’t say, haven’t followed that many, much better than average

#115 Sheane Wallace on 03.09.15 at 11:15 pm

#57 screwed

Munich, the most expensive german city is much cheaper than To and Van. Much cheaper.

#116 Jookita on 03.09.15 at 11:17 pm

Vancouver’s top claim to fame is that it is one of the rainiest places in the world….according to this link, it ain’t even top 10.

http://www.top10stop.com/world/what-are-the-most-rainy-cities-in-the-world-top-10-list

Funny further discussion here, where one dude opines, “You don’t tan in Vancouver …You Rust!”

http://www.city-data.com/forum/weather/1490407-list-top-10-rainiest-cities-world.html

#117 Andrew on 03.09.15 at 11:18 pm

Housing prices in Toronto and Vancouver probably seem cheap to Americans given that the CAD is 80 cents USD now. Toronto’s ridiculous prices are significantly lower than New York or California now because of the exchange rate. However these prices are far out of the reach of local incomes, the median income in Toronto and Vancouver is about $30000 which is not nearly enough to buy a million dollar house. People in the Bay Area, the most expensive place in the US to buy a house, make far more than people in Toronto/Vancouver. Housing prices in Canada are being propped up by subprime mortgages, foreign rich people who are paid in US dollars, real estate flippers, etc. The economy in Toronto is terrible, I have been noticing that the traffic in Toronto has been getting better in the last few months, which means that fewer people are driving to work. (In the US traffic is getting worse because more people have jobs). Mississauga in particular has been suffering a lot of job losses due to Target going bankrupt, etc. Fewer people have jobs in Toronto than a year ago, though the unemployment rate is meaningless because so many people have stopping looking for work.

#118 Brydle604 on 03.09.15 at 11:19 pm

Speaking of World Class . . .
Seen on a sign on the outskirts of Biggar Saskatchewan.

“New York is big, but this is Biggar”

#119 Hot Albertan Money on 03.09.15 at 11:19 pm

Are we just reaching a density ratio where SFH don’t fit with the urbanization of the city and will cease to be built so we’re supply capped?

Glad somebody mentioned it. This ‘intensification’ or ‘densification’ meme is getting out of hand. What’s wrong with a nice SFH (at a nice price) in the city centre? Is it really worth buying something for 1/10th the size but at the same price (+ condos fees) just to say you live “downtown”?

#120 Matthew on 03.09.15 at 11:31 pm

we were at our friends place in stouffville, and they asked how our house hunt was and they brought up a good point about renting and moving. On average how long do most people stay put? I don’t believe landlords like to kick good tenants out but u never know when they need to sell for money etc. their point was packing for a family of four potentially every year is a major p.i.t.a.
Care to share ?

#121 Allan Shira on 03.09.15 at 11:34 pm

“#93 Joe2.0 on 03.09.15 at 10:03 pm
I’ve spoken to a load of people from the UK who want to come to Canada or who have because they don’t like the shira laws that are condoned in over 60 courts in the UK……”

What are the shira laws? Yorkshira pudding, Buckinghamshira, Lancashira….maybe this is how all the great Spanish footballers in the EPL pronounce these place names?

#122 phreedumb phirst on 03.09.15 at 11:36 pm

blah.. blah.. blah..
blah.. blah.. blah..
blah.. blah.. blah..
blah.. blah.. blah..

this won’t end well… blah.. blah..

except for me, because I’ve never risked my freedom..

blah……….

(Ok, we get it. FF. Please please please bring us a debate, a discussion, a new way of thinking. There is little we blogdogs love more than a deep, intellectual and philosophical conversation to challenge and grow in our understanding.)

Please try, FF.

#123 Thule4555 on 03.09.15 at 11:37 pm

Seattle kicks the living shit out of Vancouver in nearly every way possible. Vancouver tries so hard to be something it isn’t. It is forced. It is boring and tired. Go to Seattle and I find a soul and people who own their culture, equally beautiful scenery (Olympic Mountains, Cascade Mountains, Discovery Park, Arboretum, Lake Union, Washington Lake, Puget Sound, Mt. Rainer). Seriously, Seattle is just as stunning as it is here, but even more liberal with people who aren’t afraid to take chances. It just feels more real there and more neighbourly. Seattle has cooler people, higher education rates, better jobs, great art scene, and better food and a hell of a lot better healthcare than I get here. There’s just a lot better stuff going on there in general. I cannot justify the price I paid for my home. It was pure emotion because of the misses and my inability to say no. I could have had bought twice the house for the same money in a far better place than what we get here. We already see listings staying on the market a lot longer and already four price drops in the last month on our street. Anyone who says the market isn’t dropping is either dumb or not paying attention.

#124 Andrew Woburn on 03.09.15 at 11:39 pm

Whatever position you want to take on the issue of whether non-resident Mainland Chinese buyers have a major impact on the Vancouver market, there seem to be a fairly large number of recent buyers who have immigrated from China.

It occurred to me that the concept of a real estate market in Mainland China is relatively new, and as far as I know, there have not been any major real estate corrections there as yet. Possibly it is not just Canadian born property virgins who think real estate always goes up. Do any of our Chinese speaking blog dogs have an opinion on this?

#125 Alberta is AWESOME on 03.09.15 at 11:41 pm

The sun shines down on us.

http://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Canada/Cities/sunshine-annual-average.php

#126 bdy sktrn on 03.09.15 at 11:58 pm

#105 tkid on 03.09.15 at 10:46 pm
#98 Smoking Man, I had the same experience as the other fella. Iphone 4’s home button stopped working. Walked into the Apple Store, lucked into a free slow with their tech support. Tech checks out the phone, says it is no good. They have me back up my contacts etc to the icloud via wifi while they get me a new phone from the back.

20 minutes later I walked out of the store with a new phone that had all my data on it. I had the apple protection plan so I paid absolutely nothing.
—————————–
except you paid for the protection plan, yes?

when the new samsung i bought had the wifi go bad, i took it back to the provider and got a brand new one. no plan required. nothing extra to pay. i did have to spend a whopping 5-8 min to do a few clicks and wait for the backup/restore to happen. it kinda felt like when i didn’t need mommy to tie my shoes anymore!

#127 Love my Kia on 03.10.15 at 12:01 am

I was hoping you would elaborate a bit as to ‘why’ YVR and Toronto don’t qualify as world cities. There is still an argument to be made considering that Vancouver was rated #1 city in the world to live in and Toronto made it to the top 10 world cities list last year.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/01/29/toronto-ranked-best-place-to-live-in-economist-ranking-of-cities-around-the-world/

http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/02/22/vancouver-is-the-worlds-most-livable-city-for-a-fifth-straight-year-survey/

Seems like world class cities to me.

#128 bdy sktrn on 03.10.15 at 12:08 am

#114 Sheane Wallace on 03.09.15 at 11:15 pm
#57 screwed

Munich, the most expensive german city is much cheaper than To and Van. Much cheaper.
——————————————-
don’t forget we all have google now.

the first 2br listed in munich is 2.5m cdn
the first sfh is 5.5m

http://www.luxuryestate.com/germany/bavaria/regierungsbezirk-oberbayern/munich

#129 bdy sktrn on 03.10.15 at 12:11 am

Funny further discussion here, where one dude opines, “You don’t tan in Vancouver …You Rust!”
—————————–

says a guy who never grew a lush inch-thick bright green layer of spongy moss on whichever side of his body is facing north !

#130 Debtfree on 03.10.15 at 12:15 am

@122 t#s. Is there some reason that you left out mount Hood ? Could it be that she’s next ?

#131 Ray Skunk on 03.10.15 at 12:24 am

#119 Matthew

Good point about not staying put. In the past ten years I’ve lived in seven places; two of which I owned. Renting is clearly the way forward for me – making Realtors wealthy is an annoyance. Keeps me streamlined possessions-wise too.

In other news I just got back from the gym where on the TV I saw no fewer than three commercials for the TREB and condo developers. I’ve seen generic Realtor propaganda on the shitpump before, but never anything so local. If everything is as rosy as they say it is, why advertise?

All this walk of Seattle vs. Vancouver is interesting to me. Last week, as I found myself shoveling another deposit of white dung off the sidewalk and mulling over the prospect of RE-induced Canadian financial apocalypse, I thought to myself there has to be a better way.

As it happens I’m finding myself drawn to Oregon. After a bit of research I found that instead of my preferred choice of Portland I could live across the river in Vancouver, WA. No income tax in WA, no sales tax in OR. Very interesting. Value adds: no economic prolapse on the horizon, no private sector serfdom to our public sector overlords and no Kathleen Bloody Wynne.

Food for thought.

#132 Cici on 03.10.15 at 12:26 am

#3 Captain Obvious

That happened in the States too. Whole subdivisions were bulldozed into oblivion.

#133 Ray Skunk on 03.10.15 at 12:29 am

Further to my above comment, here’s a little comparison.

Vancouver, Washington:
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/15208-NE-30th-Ave_Vancouver_WA_98686_M23570-74978?row=2

Vancouver, British Columbia:
http://www.northshorerealty.ca/listing/v1108988-1705-macgowan-av-north-vancouver-bc-v7p-2×3/

Hmmm. Tough one.

#134 Darren on 03.10.15 at 12:30 am

Sorry if this was already posted. I don’t remember seeing it here. Pretty interesting.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/03/05/chinese-police-run-secret-operations-in-b-c-to-hunt-allegedly-corrupt-officials-and-laundered-money/

#135 endless summer on 03.10.15 at 12:31 am

Forget overpriced homes. I visited the apple store today and an iPhone 6 is now 900$. Up 200$ from yesterday. I sold some us dollars for 1.25$ cad. I’m hoping the exchange rate gets back to 1.61$ as it was in 2000. World city my ass. Canada is turning back into a 3rd world country.

#136 bdy sktrn on 03.10.15 at 12:32 am

#122 Thule4555 on 03.09.15 at 11:37 pm
4price drops one street
———————————-
how are things out in abby?

#137 Jay on 03.10.15 at 12:35 am

IMF sounds FRESH alarm over Canadian Housing –
Why doesn’t the Government step in?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/imf-calls-for-more-data-tighter-standards-in-canadas-housing-market/article23378421/

#138 six_figure_renter on 03.10.15 at 12:35 am

hey #36. you should travel more. world class is more then just mountains, water, and overpriced homes

#139 old gringo on 03.10.15 at 12:41 am

#90 BG on 03.09.15 at 10:01 pm
#47 old gringo on 03.09.15 at 8:31 pm

I find it both sad and interesting how residents of cities in Canada assume that because they live there and would never move, it makes it the best place to live in the world.
You really need to spread your wings and soar my little doves. Life is meant to be lived and it is a big world outside your comfort zone.
——————————————————————

I guess the sound of your arrogance makes it hard for you to think and consider that people might actually like it here.

——————————————
That attitude is one of the reasons I left Canada many many years ago, as I said if you’ve never lived in another country you need to convince yourselves daily that “its the best here because I live here”.

#140 Ryan on 03.10.15 at 12:44 am

Toronto ain’t world class but the population is growing fast. We recently passed Chicago in population, here is the current ranks for North America.
1.Mexico City
2.New York
3.Los Angeles
4.Toronto
5.Chicago

The lack of proper infrastructure in the GTA to deal with the problem of rising population is already a problem and gonna get worse. I mean proper highway arteries and such. The QEW going to Toronto from Hamilton is backed up in Burlington by usually 7am. It’s nuts.

#141 Finland is FINNISH on 03.10.15 at 12:51 am

“Oh, just admit it – how many time you’ve heard this from your coworkers gathered at water cooler: “Yeaaah, Toronto has no choice but to become a word class city next to New York. Maybe in 5, max 10 years. But, of course, its going to be much better and nicer”.”

I was trying to scan for sarcasm but I think you were serious, so allow me to assure you that as an Ottawan, the only time Toronto comes up around the water cooler is when we’re laughing about what passes for the hockey team there.

#142 Fed-up on 03.10.15 at 12:56 am

My 2 cents…

The GTA’s population has exploded from an already congested 4 million in 1990 to what is projected to be 6.5 million this year. That is a 63% eruption. Simply shocking.

Metro Vancouver? 1.5 million in 1990 has now morphed 2.5 million projected this year…a mind bending 67% increase and bursting at the seams.

Cowtown? 660,000 in 1990 now 1.2 million projected this year…an unimaginable 82% increase. Leaves me speechless.

There is nothing “world class” about any of this. More accurately, it resembles 3rd world population growth if anything and please do not misconstrue that as some kind of racial insult. It is just an observation in regards to the rate of population growth in these areas that we have all come to know as the bubble hot zones

All of this in a short 25 years.

With an over 70% home ownership rate and with many people owning more than 1 residential property, are any of you still wondering what is playing a HUGE part in this fiasco? And a notable foreign ownership component on top of it all. Of course loose and cheap credit, TREB/CREA franken-numbers, CMHC chicanery, house lust etc, have all played their part in making this possible, but can we stop being silly and ignoring the T-Rex in the room, please?

Does any of this seem to be remotely sustainable to anyone on this blog?

Let’s all be kind, articulate and honest about this. We will have to deal with it sooner or later. How we as a country, continue to ignore and dismiss any intelligent conversation about this train wreck in the making, simply eludes and perplexes me.

#143 screwed on 03.10.15 at 12:57 am

#120 “Shira”

it’s Sharia law and the UK will regret having ever given up their rights for this religious setback.

#144 lee on 03.10.15 at 1:10 am

If the IMF is sounding the alarm again about the Canadian housing market and all but T.O. and Vancouver are down, then what cities must the horns be directed at? I think TREB knows.

#145 Blogbitch on 03.10.15 at 1:14 am

Decades ago when we blog dogs and bitches were being told that children should be seen and not heard, we learned not to speak up or ask questions. Here we have Peter, who at 31, is still young in today’s terms. He’s been reading this blog and now he’s asking some questions before he makes his move. We should applaud him for thinking, asking questions and opening himself up to this interminable debate we have going on.

Now listen to your elders, Pete. If you let the house horny cloud your ability to make decisions, you may end up with more than you bargained for down the road. I’d say, “Keep it in your pants”, but you might think I am not talking about your money. So instead, I’ll say, “Keep it in your investment account.”

And get some ear plugs. You’ll need some defense against the siren cry of those realtors, luring you to your ruin.

#146 Rabbit One on 03.10.15 at 1:15 am

> #122 Thule4555

I live Vancouver, I love to visit Seattle, too.
As you said, Vancouver and Seattle have many in common including beautiful and relaxing, modern culture, meeting nature. Also lots of rain…

I feel, though, lots os vibration in city centre -Seattle, not much here in Vancouver.

Restaurants servers’ act generally more professional, night life, bars, art scene, you name it, many we don’t have here in BC.

Selecion of professional sports events.

Dining out, Shopping mall is pretty much majot culture scene in my observation.
Beautiful parks are empty, but Metrotown Mall, Costco, Outlet Mall packed with families.

Seattle is not a well known big city in the world but when I visit there, I feel I am in “the city”.

#147 Paul -prices went nuclear, so? on 03.10.15 at 1:22 am

YES!!!!

Prices went nuclear. Just tell me why all of RE DOOMERS did not see it!!!

HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOREYYYYYYYYYYYY – guess what? the orgy continues….

Start sinning today. Play it SAFE, though, kiddos!

hahaha

PS Fed allows so many zillions of immigrants a year, just to keep RE price increases solid (and attract their $$$$$$$$$$) …. and note: those new legal immigrants even do not need to have a job to qualify for a mortgage!!!!

Take that to kill your hope for any price drop, DOOMERS! :)

#148 Seattle on 03.10.15 at 1:29 am

Seattle kicks the living shit out of Vancouver in nearly every way possible.

———

Who cares, unless one can move and work in the US or Canada, as easily as moving from one province or state to the other. Not gonna happen. Free trade was not meant to be for individuals.

#149 Edmontonian on 03.10.15 at 1:41 am

Market looking rough here in Edmonton. Most single family homes aren’t even staged right now, are on MLS empty. I”ve recognized dozens & dozens of empty homes on MLS, listed too on Kijiji for rent since they can not sell them I assume. In any case the total listings under real estate/rentals on Kijiji is hitting near 20,000 here in edmonton, up from 12,000 a few months ago! Will it mean another market meltdown like the spring of 2008?

#150 Munich on 03.10.15 at 1:48 am

“Munich, the most expensive german city is much cheaper than To and Van. Much cheaper.”

=====

Price per Square Feet to Buy Apartment in City Centre 937.03 C$ (825.92-1,016.52)

Price per Square Feet to Buy Apartment Outside of Centre 580.87 C$ (508.26-635.33)

#151 Property price index - worldwide on 03.10.15 at 1:52 am

http://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings_by_country.jsp

#152 bdy sktrn on 03.10.15 at 1:53 am

#123 Andrew Woburn on 03.09.15 at 11:39 pm

It occurred to me that the concept of a real estate market in Mainland China is relatively new, and as far as I know, there have not been any major real estate corrections there as yet. Possibly it is not just Canadian born property virgins who think real estate always goes up.
———————–
i;m not chinese background but half of the kids in my local school are. none are ham. some are newcomers and some families were here when Orland Kurtenbach played. good people. not rich but working on it. some have been known to buy a house as soon as possible and as a consequence some are sitting on huge gains. don’t count on them to crack the market.

in retrospect, has there ever been a ‘major’ re correction in vancouver?
one could point to ’81 but comparing the ‘just-about-sorta-depending-on-who-you-ask’ world classness of today’s vancouver to a sleepy lumber town of 1980 is dubious.
low rates make it possible. low rates will rule the globe for a decade so urban dirt with clean air doubles again.
…..

a big2x lot/big old house a block away hit the market today, open on sunday. 1.85m. it will be gone by monday , 2 mil easy even though the house needs more work than it’s worth.

i can still in my mind see the fsbo hand drawn sign for 470k, around 2001. could have rented it out effortlessly between then and now. oh well.

any softness in van will continue to be met with relentless waves of ready cash willing to pounce on lower prices.

until rates hit 10% again there could easily be another 2-3x on 416/van dirt patches.

#153 DaveinSylvanLake on 03.10.15 at 2:08 am

@#5 Mike in the Okanagan

Consider the source! Can one say conflict of interest (at least in terms of reliable info)? These analysts and so called experts they have on BNN lately make my skin crawl. BNN might as well be the shopping channel sometimes because whenever real estate is mentioned, it’s just another salesperson spewing gobbly gook. Not even the birds would eat that. These people will do anything to come up with new ways or include new metrics to squeeze out that last 4% dichotomy (self acclaimed) claiming interest rates determine housing values. If most people new the truth about values that clown would be out of a job along with the rest of the reprobates. We are truly living in the Twilight Zone!

#154 Derek R on 03.10.15 at 2:08 am

#113 Retired Boomer – WI on 03.09.15 at 11:11 pm asked
A ‘world class blog’….. can’t say, haven’t followed that many, much better than average

Much. Plus it gets participation from round the world — Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, Thailand, the UK, the US, etc.

So I would say it’s “world class”. If not, it’s pretty close.

#155 Arch Douche on 03.10.15 at 2:39 am

#48 BlackDog

“Peter, do you know what is really annoying about your question?

You have a wealth of information available at your fingertips, and yet still you wonder.

There was no internet in 1989 when I screwed up – only parents who wondered when I would grow up and buy a house.

If you screw up, you will have no one to blame but yourself.”

———————-

The guy is trying to be careful, doing the right thing, but isn’t conceited enough to think he might not have missed something. So he’s questioning an expert. There might be a smart answer, but there isn’t an easy answer. There wasn’t one in 1989 and there isn’t one today.

#156 jane 24 on 03.10.15 at 2:46 am

The problem with Vancouver, where I have family so know well, is that it gives you the sensation of being on the edge of the planet. Ready to drop off into the ocean. This is why we didn’t move there in 1992, we felt we couldn’t escape. I have the same feeling in Perth, Australia.

You can’t actually go anywhere from Vancouver so the residents become both insular and paranoid and compare themselves to real World Class cities of 10 million with zillion $ economies, that they have never actually visited. Also very expensive to fly anywhere in or from Canada so folk can’t afford to travel.

Canada is VERY house poor. No money for actually being alive.I went grocery shopping in TO in October and couldn’t believe the prices of basic food. Gas may be cheap but everything else including all services is so expensive there.

I live in England and my travel plans to date for 2015 are:

Grand Canaria (island off Spain) cheap winter trip
Vietnam via Dubai (family) cheap winter trip
Brussels
London x 3 so far to see real World Class art galleries and museums. Love the buzz in London.
Italy (holiday home)
Italy again.
Montreal (family)
Toronto (family)
Vietnam via Hong Kong (family)

So believe me no city in Canada is World Class. If you believe they are, then start traveling as the rest of the world will blow your socks off.

Life is for living guys, don’t pickle yourselves in debt especially when you are young.

#157 Fed-up on 03.10.15 at 2:50 am

#124 Alberta is AWESOME on 03.09.15 at 11:41 pm

The sun shines down on us.

http://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Canada/Cities/sunshine-annual-average.php
———————————————————————–

Yes you’re duking it out with such balmy destinations like Saskatoon, Edmonton and Winnipeg.

-40 and sunny doesn’t count.

#158 bdy sktrn on 03.10.15 at 2:52 am

the apple watch marks the apex of the great, great apple story.

it will be the first poorly received modern day apple product.

great for the geeky types but it’s won’t go mainstream.
hell anyone over 45 can’t read the tiny screen.

kid’s phones are GLUED to their hands anyway.

#159 DisgustMadeMePost on 03.10.15 at 2:54 am

http://www.biv.com/article/2015/3/vancouverites-increasingly-relying-bank-mom-and-da/

Many of the younger couples he sees buying houses worth over $1 million have high dual incomes, in the $300,000 range, and so can afford the hefty monthly mortgage payments.

That’s why RBC’s quarterly affordability index for Vancouver is perennially shocking but doesn’t tell the whole story, said Ryan Berlin, director of Vancouver research firm Urban Futures.

RBC’s housing affordability index for November showed that it would take 83% of gross household income to afford a detached home in Vancouver, compared to 56.3% in Toronto. In a March 3 report, RBC said Vancouver home prices are a drag on the overall housing affordability for the province.

“What we are increasingly inclined to do is not [compare] incomes to price but incomes to payments,” said Berlin. “[Banks] won’t lend to you if you’re spending more than 44% of your gross income each month servicing debt. That includes your mortgage.”

To get more detail on this trend, Urban Futures has ordered custom data from Statistics Canada – but the firm doesn’t expect to receive the data for several months. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. has identified the issue for future study.

“The boomers are the wealthiest generation in history, and they have savings, they have other assets,” Berlin said.

…….

83% of gross income!! Yeeesh.

Still, who are all these young couples making 300k?

Anyway, the article talks about the boomers being wealthy and how there is a lot of gifting going on. Boomers taking equity out of their puffed up properties in order to help their kids get in on the market. Does strike one that if/when the inevitable pop happens, there will be many more than just recent purchasers that wind up unhappy.

Gotta wonder how many realtors have planted that idea in a prospective young buyers head. Go ask your parents…

#160 BigM on 03.10.15 at 3:16 am

Joe2.0 on 03.09.15 at 10:03 pm

I’ve spoken to a load of people from the UK who want to come to Canada or who have because they don’t like

I met tons of people like that in Spain.
The only issue is these are UKers who spent decades voting for left wing socialist governments who permitted those courts in the first place, and I don’t think they are smart enough to figure out that THEY were the problem.

Kind of like Canadians buying houses these days.

For the Love of God, stop. Please stop. Make it stop already.

#161 Van Why on 03.10.15 at 5:14 am

I agree that Vancouver is no world class city…not by any stretch of the imagination. That nonsense is the product of helicopter renting realtors who’d sell you crap and call flowers if they found someone stupid enough to believe them.

Vancouver is a strip mall….with a downtown you can walk across in 10 slow minutes. The city is basically a suburb…and that is where the problem with ‘density’ lays.

Surrounding the pathetically small city center you have miles of slappy crack shacks and broken down hovels…that the residences are desperately trying to rename as ‘character homes’…bwhahahahahahaha….a hovel by any other name.

Vancouver is designed by drunken sailors with ‘vision’ issues…..pun intended. What Vancouver needs is to expropriate all the crack shacks surrounding major intersections and rezone these area’s into new city centers …with mixed zoning…not just more gifts to the mayors favorite condo developer.

New city centers should be dropped into the middle of every neighborhood..like Kits, Arbutus, Dunbar, Sha -Yawwwnnessy, marpole etc etc etc. Get rid of Vancouver’s strip mall profile and maybe one day it might be a city worth living in.

Lets face it…there is no reason to move to Vancouver except for fleeing another jurisdiction with your filthy lucre. Which is why there are no head offices in Vancouver…no business climate and only a class of pseudo-rich civil servants desperate to live in houses as large as the HAM next door.

To qualify as a city you must have a business culture, an art culture, a social culture, theaters, dance, music….people. Vancouver’s only claim to fame is the money laundering Lamborghini’s and the 800 million liters of sewage it pumps out daily into the ‘Super Natural waters.

#162 BillyBob on 03.10.15 at 6:17 am

I can’t tell if #121 is being ironic or just not too bright. I’m gonna go with the latter. I agree with our friend from Wisconsin (always enjoy your posts, btw), Freedom First may ruffle feathers with his non-traditional views on marriage and so on – but that doesn’t make him wrong.

As a longtime and current resident of Dubai, I have to agree with previous comments that it most certainly shouldn’t be included in any list of any length of “world-class” cities. The only thing world-class here is the hypocrisy, greed, and ability to self-promote. The distance between the image and the reality is amazing. If the aviation industry in Canada wasn’t such a disaster I would never have come here.

Having said that, I also find the debate about the status of Vancouver and Toronto a bit amusing. I can assure that it is one that only takes place within Canada. I love Canada but living abroad has been an eye-opener and quite humbling – no one is quite as impressed with Canadians as we are with ourselves.

Sorry.

#163 Jacob on 03.10.15 at 6:37 am

DELETED (Anti-immigrant)

#164 Darryl on 03.10.15 at 7:10 am

#113 Retired Boomer – WI on 03.09.15 at 11:11 pm
#82 Darryl

Technically, true that Windsor, Toronto, Hamilton may not be “north” of where I post, but Winnipeg, Edmonton, North Bay, surely are. By area, there is a lot more of Canada ‘north’ of me than ‘south’ of me, same can be said for Minnesota, and Michigan.
——————————————————-

Ahhh yes wise boomer but Toronto is the center of the universe. Didn’t they tell you? That’s why it’s different . :) Can ya say World Class.

#165 bigrider on 03.10.15 at 7:29 am

Garth – “The answer is simple. It’s no. Canada has some cool places to live, but Toronto is not NYC, and sure as hell not London or Tokyo. Vancouver is not San Francisco or HK, Beijing, or even Seoul. The comparisons are weird and parochial”

Garth, this statement of yours above, which you have made in the past, again lacks the usual supporting evidence, you always seem to provide with all the other claims you make.

#51 Mean Jean’s link sure seems to be solid evidence that Toronto is a world class city already.

I think that if you are going to continue to state that Toronto is no NYC , London or Tokyo ,then you owe to your readers to list the reasons why.

It is fundamental to your argument that RE prices are overvalued here in T.O

Ever been to NYC or London? Paying too much for a beater house doesn’t make you world class. — Garth

#166 bigrider on 03.10.15 at 8:01 am

Ever been to NYC or London? Paying too much for a beater house doesn’t make you world class. — Garth

I have been to NYC not London.

In any event Garth, please tell us specifically in detail why NYC and London are worthy of their world class status and commensurate sky high RE prices and Toronto is not

Only a guy from 905 would ask such a thing. — Garth

#167 cdilla on 03.10.15 at 8:12 am

World class cities typically have housing andon’t transportation infrastructure to support the poor. How long can toronto sustain a climate where the workers that support the city must live in overcrowded conditions (multiple families in a single unit dwelling) or be forced to commute hours to and from their jobs…. Sure we can import immigrants that will do it, but what happens to their kids? And their kids’ kids….

#168 Ray Skunk on 03.10.15 at 8:32 am

#165 bigrider

please tell us specifically in detail why NYC and London are worthy of their world class status

Given your name how about subway stations, lines and daily ridership?

NYC: 421 / 10 / 4,768,234
London: 275 / 11 / 3,465,763
Toronto: 69 / 2.5 / 1,084,600

Good luck getting a beer in “world class” Toronto after 2am.

#169 Stickler on 03.10.15 at 8:40 am

Toronto is considered “Alpha (3rd tier)”, Vancouver is considered “Beta (5th tier)”

Here are the descriptions…

– Alpha++ cities are London and New York City, which are vastly more integrated with the global economy than all other cities.

– Alpha+ cities complement London and New York City by filling advanced service niches for the global economy.

– Alpha and Alpha- cities are cities that link major economic regions into the world economy.

– Beta level cities are cities that link moderate economic regions into the world economy.

– Gamma level cities are cities that link smaller economic regions into the world economy.

– Sufficiency level cities are cities that have a sufficient degree of services so as not to be obviously dependent on world cities.

#170 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.10.15 at 8:53 am

DELETED

#171 BG on 03.10.15 at 8:54 am

#138 old gringo on 03.10.15 at 12:41 am

That attitude is one of the reasons I left Canada many many years ago, as I said if you’ve never lived in another country you need to convince yourselves daily that “its the best here because I live here”.
——————————————

Sorry muchacho, you miss again.

I’ve been in Canada for only 5 years.
I was raised in France, lived some time in Poland.
I also quite familiar with Spain for spending a month there every year.

I could have moved anywhere in European Union without needing a visa or work permit.

Still, I prefer Canada and went through all the paperwork and delays of immigration here.

Is that convincing enough that I genuinely like it here or should I get a maple leaf tattooed on the butt?

If anything, you seem to be the one trying to convince yourself that Canada sucks and nobody can be happy up there.
Like some sort of justification for your decision to move out.
Well maybe it was a good decision for you, but it does not invalidate anybody else’s preference.

How many Canadians immigrate to your host country, and how many of your “compadres” immigrate to Canada?

#172 neo on 03.10.15 at 8:58 am

“Third, we now have teaser loans. CIBC is the first major bank this spring to import the US phenom to Canada, drawing people in with a super sexy cheapo rate, which inevitably hikes. The bank is offering 1.99% money for nine months of a 48-month loan, which escalates to 2.96% and will pop again upon renewal.”

A friend of mine was up for renewal at RBC. They have been losing business to other institutions by not giving their best offer and waiting for people to come back to ask them to match. Well people aren’t doing so. They got offered 2.05% for five years fixed. That is where we are now. No “teaser” necessary.

#173 Polozified on 03.10.15 at 9:02 am

Toronto is world class at convincing themselves they’re world class.

#174 CalgaryRocks on 03.10.15 at 9:09 am

#165 bigrider on 03.10.15 at 8:01 am
Ever been to NYC or London? Paying too much for a beater house doesn’t make you world class. — Garth

I have been to NYC not London.

In any event Garth, please tell us specifically in detail why NYC and London are worthy of their world class status and commensurate sky high RE prices and Toronto is not

We currently live in NYC. I like it here because I can work with the big boys. You just don’t get these opportunities in Canada.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d rather have a huge house with a yard and garage, like we had in Calgary. Here we live in a ridiculously expensive apartment. Sometimes it’s not about the money, it’s about the experience, you just got to go where stuff is happening.

The problem with Vancouver is that nothing IS happening and as for Toronto, yes you got a lot more going on, but it really is like playing in the minors compared with what is going on right now in the US.

#175 bigrider on 03.10.15 at 9:15 am

Only a guy from 905 would ask such a thing. — Garth

Actually, seems many of your loyal blog posters from all parts of Canada are asking the exact same such thing.

Several have provided solid proof to support the notion.

We continue to await your rebuttal

Bloated prices do not a ‘world class’ city make. World-class fools? Priceless. — Garth

#176 straight up on 03.10.15 at 9:21 am

In any event Garth, please tell us specifically in detail why NYC and London are worthy of their world class status and commensurate sky high RE prices and Toronto is not–
____________________________

i’ve been to NY, Paris, London, Berlin…

Toronto does not compare. not even close.

#177 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 03.10.15 at 9:21 am

I like Apple products, have owned many over the years. The watch announced yesterday is a major departure in marketing for Apple. They are now selling exclusivity in the form of $10000 gold edition watches. Checking the millennial sites, post announcement, a definite meme was being expressed. The watch may be a success or it could be another Google glass. I think Apple just lost it’s way yesterday.

http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2015/03/apple_watch_edition_how_apple_became_a_luxury_brand.html

#178 Mike in Toronto on 03.10.15 at 9:22 am

Looks like Apple made its bet on the CAD/USD. All prices seem to be up 10% as of yesterday.

I should probably buy a car or something before the dealers catch up.

Reasons I think Toronto is not world class:
– We look to NYC to imagine our future
– We have access to 1/9 the market of NYC
– NYC doesn’t know we exist
– We’re not the centre of innovation in just about anything.
– We’re not exporting our culture worldwide, you barely see Toronto in film or television locally, never mind internationally (the BBC and Hollywood export culture quite nicely, while the CBC is being cut to death)
– We keep calling ourselves a “world class city”
– No world class city depends on the car for transportation

I’m sure there’s more.

#179 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.10.15 at 9:30 am

Toronto is a world class city only to the copious souls that live in the city itself. The people that live there believe that they are demigods. With a sanctimoniousness attitude. Where do you live? Oh you’re from the 905 or something to that effect. I left the city many years ago when it was positioned to be a world class worthy city. Back in those days the city had the lowest differential between wealth classes of any comparable city of its size. Now it is a few rich, and masses of underprivileged scratching to make a living in an expensive city. The infrastructure is collapsing, the hi-ways are jammed, purchasing a home for any young person is impossible unless you’re making huge amounts of money. Oh there is so much to do in the city, yes if you have money! The poor cannot afford theater, dinners at Barbarians or Jacobs & Co. Hell just getting around from point A to point B takes up most of your free time. That’s true for the TTC or driving. TTC to me means Take-The-Car most of the time. Having said that I’ve been to London and New York and yes they are exciting cities, expensive as well. Their transportation systems make our look like a joke. Back in the late fifties my father worked at Avro in Malton so we moved to a town called Bramalea from Toronto. It was the first planned community in North America and had the potential to be world class. It had the best park system and community sports system bar none. The subdivisions were arraigned between major north south, east west arterial routes leading in and out of the town. Plazas and small stores were never beside homes, all manufacturing plants had buffer zones of greenspace between them. The schools were always located between parks and homes. Children could go and play without worrying about being run down on the road. Small theaters, a central major park, a ski hill, a band shell were all part of the town. The quality of life there was excellent. It attracted hundreds of thousands of people as the housing was very affordable. Unfortunately it was amalgamated with the old town of Brampton in the seventies and well that dream of the perfect utopian city has been lost. Old crony politicians screwed the newer city out of funding to help feed cash into the older Brampton with its failing infrastructure.
http://www.bramptonguardian.com/community-story/3094798-wanted-memories-of-bramalea/

#180 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.10.15 at 9:34 am

Wow deleted really? Our laws are good enough! Have you ever been to one of these countries where these laws are enforced Garth. I have been to several on business and it scares the shit out of me. Ask a women from one of those countries how the laws work for her?

Trying saying it without sounding like a biker. — Garth

#181 dosouth on 03.10.15 at 9:52 am

Still seeing another 1/4 point drop by BOC in the next round….unavoidable political interference.

#182 Rational Optimist on 03.10.15 at 10:01 am

“Are our major cities (Tor and Van) becoming world cities like NYC, Tokyo or London?”

Toronto and Vancouver are not our major cities; Toronto, Montreal and Calgary are, by almost any measure. Montreal has more major corporate headquarters than Vancouver, and so does Calgary. I understand that Montreal is on a downward trajectory and Vancouver (relative to them, anyway) on positive one, but it’s wrong to assume that 1) Canada’s major cities will be on par with other countries’ cities; and also 2) that Vancouver is our second major city.

I would say that Miami is much closer to being a “world city” than Vancouver. Miami is the cultural capital of Latin America- hundreds of millions of Latinos would love to live or at least visit there (or at least they think they do). When wealthy Latinos want to buy a place abroad, or get a second passport for their children, they don’t go to Mexico City or Buenos Aires, it’s Miami. It’s also where many, many multinationals have their Latin American headquarters, and where many international banks have their American ones.

#183 Visiting North Vancouver on 03.10.15 at 10:07 am

It was 16c yesterday and wife wants to move here, so I did the male thing, happy wife is a happy life, looked at four condos, 2 bedroom, 2 baths, about 900 square feet
Two were at $717,000 one very nice $838,000. So I thought let’s look at rentals the same unit selling for $717,000 rents for $2,500 a month. So I must sell back east in Waterloo. I might get $400,000. I tell the wife I can invest @6% I get $2,000 per month or I could borrow $300,000 at 1,200 a month. But honey that’s not risky. I am tired of arguments, then she asks daddy, and my opinion is worthless

#184 liquidincalgary on 03.10.15 at 10:09 am

Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol/SM/TurnerNation

=================================================

if no one feeds the troll. he feeds himself

#185 Musty Basement Dweller on 03.10.15 at 10:14 am

Bloated prices do not a ‘world class’ city make. World-class fools? Priceless. — Garth
============
What a great quote. As an example I love Vancouver for it’s moderate climate and cleanliness, but to call it world class is definitely a stretch. With the exception of Robson Street or Granville on a summer night it’s pretty darn quiet. It’s a great hiking and bedroom community but that comes at a huge premium,actually ridiculous premium presently. It wasn’t awarded the “no fun city” award for no reason and it will take a little while yet for it to develop out of that .
Even Montreal at – 40 has much much more vibrance and life in it on any given day or night than Vancouver.
Can’t speak for Toronto because I’ve never really spent any time there.

#186 -=jwk=- on 03.10.15 at 10:21 am

JUST TO RESTATE IT

The only catalyst that will hit Canadian real estate is the removal of CMHC guarantees.

Risk free money is the ONLY thing driving the boom. It was the ONLY thing driving the US boom, and Ireland, and Spain, and Australia, etc.

Interest rates are irrelevant (and won’t be going up in the next 20 years anyway)

#187 maxx on 03.10.15 at 10:30 am

#17 Rainclouds on 03.09.15 at 7:30 pm

“Who to believe? A shill for a lending company OR Someone who is responsible for a 17 billion investment portfolio

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/pimco-sells-canadian-government-bonds-blames-poloz-for-confusion/article23354439/

Time for a shower……..”

My money is so on Pimco…..

#188 bigrider on 03.10.15 at 10:32 am

#177 Mike in Toronto.

I liked your post Mike and there were a few points I never really thought of. By the way, I realized that I never really made my previous posts clear on where I stand on the subject. I am neutral but leaning toward no as world class simply because of our abysmal infrastructure

Nice to get an answer that avoids ad hominem

#189 The American on 03.10.15 at 10:33 am

Okay, okay, okay… Seattle vs. Vancouver: Really, both cities are great for different reasons. I do love Stanley Park in Vancouver, and often wish Seattle had a large downtown park similar to it. But I have to also admit I chose to live in Seattle, even though I have had plenty of options to move to Vancouver. Seattle has a real hustle and bustle I just don’t get in Vancouver, and I love energy. Also, I have to agree there is just so much more to do in Seattle than Vancouver. But that makes sense being that Seattle metro is also some 56% bigger than Vancouver, so naturally there would be more options. Anyway, people pay more in general to afford the life in Seattle over the life in Vancouver. Really, the *only* thing that costs more in Vancouver is a house. Yep, that’s it. But when you purchase a like home for less money in Seattle, please remember to figure about 1% of the sale price will be also paid as property taxes. So, my $1.2MM, 2,500 sq. ft. home in Briarcliff neighborhood, I spend a little over $13,000/year on property taxes in Seattle. You damn sure don’t pay anywhere close to that in Vancouver. Think it’s cheaper if you rent between the two cities? Nope. Not at all…

http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Canada&city1=Vancouver&country2=United+States&city2=Seattle%2C+WA

#190 maxx on 03.10.15 at 10:36 am

#19 Linda on 03.09.15 at 7:33 pm

“Instead of ‘Yes, Virginia, there IS a Santa Claus’ we have ‘Yes, Virginia, there IS a Satan’. Their name is legion & it begins with an R. Though to be fair, these people are just trying to make a living & who knows? Maybe the successful ones have sold their souls to the devil!”

I’m more inclined to think that they are simply taking advantage of what they are legally allowed to do. Is it right? Hell no. But the worst offense is tptb just standing pat and not doing a damned thing about it.

#191 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.10.15 at 10:52 am

#179 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.10.15 at 9:34 am

Wow deleted really? Our laws are good enough! Have you ever been to one of these countries where these laws are enforced Garth. I have been to several on business and it scares the shit out of me. Ask a women from one of those countries how the laws work for her?

Trying saying it without sounding like a biker. — Garth
__________________________________________
That may actually be a compliment as I did own a Harley!
Agreed! Though, it does get under my skin though when Ive seen the way women get treated under that particular way of life!

#192 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.10.15 at 10:57 am

What a joke this is. I feel for anyone who has licensed their name, however this guy is making a killing. He is definitely not a person I would want to go to dinner with let alone his restaurant. Exigo caveo

http://www.120sports.com/video/v111962140/tigers-new-restaurant

#193 Joe2.0 on 03.10.15 at 11:01 am

DELETED

#194 Ponzif on 03.10.15 at 11:04 am

#149 Munich on 03.10.15 at 1:48 am
“Munich, the most expensive german city is much cheaper than To and Van. Much cheaper.”
=====
Price per Square Feet to Buy Apartment in City Centre 937.03 C$ (825.92-1,016.52)
Price per Square Feet to Buy Apartment Outside of Centre 580.87 C$ (508.26-635.33)
————
And I thought Germany was metric.

#195 Mister Obvious on 03.10.15 at 11:04 am

#184 Musty Basement Dweller

“Even Montreal at – 40 has much much more vibrance and life in it on any given day or night than Vancouver.”
————————-

That’s one of the main things I love about Vancouver. A profound lack of vibrancy.

Though admittedly, we have cornered the market on both arrogance and hedonism.

#196 Cici on 03.10.15 at 11:12 am

Well, the IMF guys are now talking about a “hard landing”:

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/canadian-housing-market-overheated-imf-warns-1.2272364

#197 JimH on 03.10.15 at 11:17 am

The one and only thing about Vancouver that is even close to “World Class” is its setting.
The city itself is a canker on that natural beauty.

#198 Chris on 03.10.15 at 11:22 am

” Like in Ireland – a similarly middling country ”

I dunno where real estate prices are heading. Neither do you. I don’t know where interest rates are heading. Neither do you. If you think Canada is a middling (or mediocre) country, please feel free to jump on a plane and get the f..k out. Yes, RE is overpriced in some places, will likely correct. Why all the negativity about the country in general? If you love the US or anywhere else so much more, just go.

Hmm. Let’s compare my record of public service to Canada to yours, then draw conclusions. — Garth

#199 JimH on 03.10.15 at 11:26 am

Apple? (AAPL)
This stock has spent the last 2 weeks struggling below a declining 5 DMA.
The caution flag is out. Bounces in equities (and markets) in that situation USUALLY fail.

#200 Mister Obvious on 03.10.15 at 11:26 am

#160 Van Why

“To qualify as a city you must have a business culture, an art culture, a social culture, theaters, dance, music….people. Vancouver’s only claim to fame is the money laundering Lamborghini’s and the 800 million liters of sewage it pumps out daily into the ‘Super Natural waters.”
—————————-

Yes, dance… especially the dance!

You’re probably right about the Lamborghini business but on the matter of sewage you’ve got us confused with Victoria. They’re the ones who crap in the ocean.

Greater Vancouver has a world class sewage treatment facility on the Fraser river. Given what we are full of here it fills a critical need.

#201 Hot Albertan Money on 03.10.15 at 11:29 am

#162 Jacob on 03.10.15 at 6:37 am
DELETED (Anti-immigrant)

I like this. You should tag all the posts you delete so we can see what kind of B.S strolls in here on a daily basis.

#202 Einsturzende Neuebauten on 03.10.15 at 11:32 am

great article in Calgary Herald:

http://calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/calgary-new-home-prices-survived-three-of-five-previous-oil-price-collapses

:-)

#203 Mike on 03.10.15 at 11:36 am

Anyone who thinks that Vancouver or Toronto are world class cities haven’t ever travelled the world. ;)

#204 Dup on 03.10.15 at 11:36 am

Any comments on the US debt ceiling on the 16’th of this month?

#205 Millenial-falcon on 03.10.15 at 11:37 am

Vancouver is not New York but it is growing city consistently rated as one of the best cities with highest standards of living in the world , it is a resort town for Asia with one one of largest Asian population bases in North America, doesn’t take a rocks scientist to see the appeal. It’s only over priced to average people the fact is average people are not buying 2 mil mansions in west van or coal harbour

#206 Smoking Man on 03.10.15 at 11:38 am

#183 liquidincalgary on 03.10.15 at 10:09 am
Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol/SM/TurnerNation

=================================================

if no one feeds the troll. he feeds himself.
……..

God damn, how did you figure out we are all the same girl..

Well done….

#207 The American on 03.10.15 at 11:42 am

And no offense meant, but I’ve been to Toronto quite a bit. It is a far, far cry from “world class” status. I agree that Toronto is world class at making itself believe it is “world class.”

#208 OttawaMike on 03.10.15 at 11:53 am

Market down sharply today yet the VIX is star angles quiet
Can somebody explain?

My only guess is that traders expect a typical spring bounce especially after another harsh winter.

It is positioning for the coming Fed rate increase. — Garth

#209 OttawaMike on 03.10.15 at 11:53 am

Strangely not star

#210 Millenial-falcon on 03.10.15 at 11:55 am

Also everyone shitting on van is from back east, typical, can’t handle the fact we golfing and taking motorcycle rides up to whistler rite now

#211 BCD on 03.10.15 at 12:00 pm

SFH are simply going to be unattainable in these cities?”

The answer is simple. It’s no. Canada has some cool places to live, but Toronto is not NYC, and sure as hell not London or Tokyo. Vancouver is not San Francisco or HK, Beijing, or even Seoul. The comparisons are weird and parochial.
_________________________________________
I disagree, and history is proving you wrong continually and one day at a time over the last 10 years. How can you be right when you’ve been wrong for 10 years? Vancouver is a world class city. It’s like the Switzerland of the free world. We have big oil next door, and millions of Chinese overseas that want our city and our way of life. If anything, Vancouver will outpace and outprice places like New York etc. in the future. I don’t want to believe it, but I do.

#212 bdy sktrn on 03.10.15 at 12:01 pm

Priciest Metro Vancouver homes draw buyers from China

Falling dollar makes Vancouver mansions a bargain in yuan

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Priciest+Metro+Vancouver+homes+draw+buyers+from+China/10875651/story.html

#213 bdy sktrn on 03.10.15 at 12:03 pm

Recently, a house at 1383 West 32nd Avenue in Shaughnessy went into contract for $8.01 million, or $2 million over the asking price of $5.99 million.

In West Vancouver, 118 houses were sold in February, compared to 63 the year before for an increase of 87 per cent. Of homes in the $4 million and higher category, agent Clarence Debelle of Royal Pacific Realty estimates some 75 per cent went to buyers with ties to mainland Chinese money.

The burst of activity is due primarily to wealthy Chinese, some of whom live in Canada but keep or earn money overseas, and others in China who are looking to buy abroad.

They are motivated by conditions such as low interest rates and the Canadian dollar’s decline against the Chinese yuan, which is linked to the U.S. dollar and is up 18 per cent over the past 18 months.

“Wealthy Chinese who live in Canada” are called ‘Canadians.’ This kind of descriptor is distasteful. — Garth

#214 Millenial-falcon on 03.10.15 at 12:05 pm

#155 jane 24 on 03.10.15 at 2:46 am

Haha your an idiot, , you think canada is expensive and live in England ? England is the worst terrible food and even uglier women

#215 Ft Mac House Guy on 03.10.15 at 12:07 pm

Words cannot express how glad I am that I sold my house back in October! Some Fort McMurray stats for you all…

In the past month, listings have increased by 6.2% and all the exact same lowest priced large houses (5+ bathrooms, 3+ baths) are still for sale, except one for $633k sold and now there’s also a few extra’s listed $579k, $640, and $659k, which are all cheaper than my neighbor’s that was 2 down that has dropped pricing by $15k, but hasn’t budged from $660k for months. I’m almost positive that they can’t drop it any lower because if they do they’ll be losing money. Imagine that!… Losing money on RE in Fort McMurray!

Year over Year ft mac listings have increased by 24% and list prices appear to have decreased by ~ $20k-$40k, or ~3-6%

2yr over year (Comparing todays prices to 2 years ago..Well, March 15, 2013), listings have increased by 27%

#216 Broke Dick on 03.10.15 at 12:08 pm

Toronto and Vancouver.
World class cities or not, whatever.
The facts are that the population of these cities keeps increasing and that is mainly driven by people immigrating here. So world class or not, people as still moving to these two centres in droves, and for the time being SFH prices will keep escalating.

#217 bdy sktrn on 03.10.15 at 12:09 pm

oil back below 49 – demand nowhere to be seen

starting to get that feeling of a market top in equities.

go to 50% cash or prepare to be parted from your profits.

#218 Ft Mac House Guy on 03.10.15 at 12:19 pm

Calgary month over month total MLS listings have increased by 10.6% (And I thought I heard new listings have started to slow? lol). Listing prices finally look like they’ve started to decrease a little bit (I guess that’s what happens when you’re competing against nearly 5900 properties!)

Edmonton month over month total MLS listings have increased by 14.2% and listing prices haven’t really moved at all, but neither have any of the houses listed lol.

There is currently 11 more MLS listings in Calgary then Edmonton! All this talk about Calgary RE tanking…. We should probably just say “Alberta”.

#219 cramar - Leamington, ON on 03.10.15 at 12:30 pm

#113 Retired Boomer – WI on 03.09.15 at 11:11 pm

Technically, true that Windsor, Toronto, Hamilton may not be “north” of where I post, but Winnipeg, Edmonton, North Bay, surely are. By area, there is a lot more of Canada ‘north’ of me than ‘south’ of me, same can be said for Minnesota, and Michigan.

————-

Yup! From here, Wisconsin’s southern border is half a degree latitude north of where I am—which is at the same latitude as the northern border of California and Nevada! All of Canada lies north of me, as do millions of Americans. Hard for a lot of Americans to grasp.

#220 Tyler Durden on 03.10.15 at 12:34 pm

Only a guy from 905 would ask such a thing. — Garth

Wow, bang on. As a core 416er I fully agree. Toronto is probably 50 years or more away from obtaining the same status NYC and London have on the world stage. And that is kind of assuming those places stand still. Reasons? Take your pick. Lack of infrastructure for the current population (never mind growth of inhabitants, and tourists like NYC or London get in a given year), economic strength, lack of smart policy and regulation, and an overall lack of ambition to be a world class city. Toronto is probably happy just being a middling city and likes the attributes that come with not being world class (cleanliness, friendliness, etc) and we should be able to accept that. No point in being in denial about where you stand if you clearly like where you stand.

#221 Newbie on 03.10.15 at 12:42 pm

Markets will be down the next while, getting ready for the rate adjustment. Seen this before and it will happen, as Garth has stated as well.

AAPL will lead the pack downwards and is dropping just as I expected. Hope everyone sold before this week. I will start to look at it again once under $50, probably 2017 provided they come up with something really new.

The Apple watch is a dud. For all of you watch wearers who got tired of having to change your watch battery every 2 years, now Apple lets you do that every 18 hours.

That’s progress. Swell.

#222 Marco on 03.10.15 at 12:47 pm

” Like in Ireland – a similarly middling country ”

Yep, and some more roots to Ireland – Mark Carney and Jim Flaherty.
And my Grandma’s family.
Ireland like Canada is gorgeous.

#223 miketheengineer on 03.10.15 at 12:57 pm

Garth et al:

Have you ever been to the beautiful city of Milton. The only city that I know of where virtually everyone leaves town every morning to go to work in Mississauga, Oakville, or Toronto….it is a city with virtually “O” jobs, few “real” parks, homes all jammed up together, that are “endless” in sight, and virtually every home has the “garage in front” design….wow that is impressive and creative. Just love Milton…what a great place!

#224 bdy sktrn on 03.10.15 at 12:58 pm

“Wealthy Chinese who live in Canada” are called ‘Canadians.’ This kind of descriptor is distasteful. — Garth
———————————-
i see you point, but you better let these guys know the distasteful name they have been using for decades

What does SUCCESS stand for?

SUCCESS stands for United Chinese Community Enrichment Services Society
the organization is recognized as one of British Columbia’s largest social service providers.

they call themselves chinese, is it really that awful?

Chinese Tabernacle Baptist Church
Vancouver Chinese Evangelical Free Church
New Life Chinese Lutheran Church
Chinese Presbyterian Church
Chinese Grace Mennonite Church
Faith Chinese North American Baptist Church
Living Word Chinese Baptist Church
Vancouver Chinese Mennonite Church
Franklin Chinese Gospel Church
Vancouver Chinese Christian Short Term Mission
Chinese Christian Mission Of Canada
Richmond Chinese Baptist Church
Chinese Christian Mission Of Canada
Richmond Grace Chinese Alliance Church
Richmond Evangelical Chinese Bible Church
Richmond Chinese Mennonite Brethren Church
Richmond Chinese Alliance Church
mond Chinese Evangelical Free Church
Tri-City Chinese Christian Church
Vancouver Chinese Zion Church
Coquitlam Chinese Baptist Church
Coquitlam Chinese Evangelical Free Church
Chinese Christian Mission Of Canada

seems like they want to hold on to the name.

You have no point. They’re as Canadian as you. — Garth

#225 JimH on 03.10.15 at 1:01 pm

#197 Chris
“If you think Canada is a middling (or mediocre) country, please feel free to jump on a plane and get the f..k out.”
====================================
What a disgusting, jingoistic comment, Sir.

Worthy of an ignorant, flag-waving 1968 Alabama redneck.

Get a grip. Patriotism is fine and has it’s place. Your brand of Nationalism is reactionary and anti-Canadian.

#226 jess on 03.10.15 at 1:09 pm

taxes and schools read what happens when the developer sells the lease

…”The basic idea is to rent stores under contracts, called net leases, that make the tenants—the drugstores—responsible for property taxes and other expenses. To compensate the investors who sink cash into the real estate, Walgreens and other retailers pay rents that include a premium above the cost of building the store. Once the stores are occupied, net leases often trade among investors.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-05/walgreens-and-cvs-declare-war-on-property-taxes

#227 bdy sktrn on 03.10.15 at 1:10 pm

my next door neighbour came to canada in the late 50’s.

his kids and grandkids call themselves canadian, he says “i’m italian” , even though we all know he’s canadian. he speaks mostly italian, food, tv, games, his garden, his church, his friends – all as italian as calabria is.

is it distaseful to call him as he self-identifies?

#228 fixie guy on 03.10.15 at 1:18 pm

“Second, with million-dollar average homes in Toronto and Vancouver, no longer eligible for CMHC insurance, a growing number of buyers are resorting to subprime loans. ”

To be fair, that’s applicable to most CMHC guaranteed mortgages too. If buyers truly qualified for those loans the government wouldn’t be recursively calming the banks with taxpayer dollars.
Only the banks win in this game.

#229 frogblender on 03.10.15 at 1:31 pm

HEY GARTH! In addition to subprimes and teasers, don’t forget LIAR LOANS are alive & well in Canada:

CIBC: “best of all, you don’t need to prove your income”

https://www.cibc.com/ca/small-business/mortgages/self-emplyd-recgntn-mrtg.html

#230 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.10.15 at 1:33 pm

I think I’m going to put some $$ into tankers and storage tanks. Told you all this before.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-10/us-may-run-out-oil-storage-soon-june

#231 TnT on 03.10.15 at 1:33 pm

“Are our major cities (Tor and Van) becoming world cities like NYC, Tokyo or London? The average resident has been priced out of those cities for decades.

The answer is a resounding Yes!

There will be no “crash” or “slow grind” that will ever make a SFH in Toronto or Vancouver affordable to the locally earned average income.

Toronto will always be Canada’s NYC

Vancouver will always have a direct link to India and China

If you want to live in a SFH in the core of Toronto or Vancouver then you will always pay a premium and this will not reverse.

Your locally earned average income will never reach the new plateau of the average SFH in any of these cities simple because of the constant demand.

For all those who have been waiting for a “crash”….

Enjoy your rental and your liquidity :)

#232 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.10.15 at 1:38 pm

#224 JimH on 03.10.15 at 1:01 pm

#197 Chris
“If you think Canada is a middling (or mediocre) country, please feel free to jump on a plane and get the f..k out.”
====================================
What a disgusting, jingoistic comment, Sir.

Worthy of an ignorant, flag-waving 1968 Alabama redneck.

Get a grip. Patriotism is fine and has it’s place. Your brand of Nationalism is reactionary and anti-Canadian.
________________________________________

Take it from me I left once because my parents moved to the USA, came back to USA after being overseas for two years and moved to back to Canada for job offer. Was promptly transferred back to USA by company. Left company and came back here to start my own company. It aint pretty outside of these borders. If anyone bitches about this country I just say your free to leave!

#233 young & foolish on 03.10.15 at 1:44 pm

This whole “world class” meme is a waste of time. What we do know is that populations around the world have been urbanizing fast. Extremes usually happen at the margins.

…. fight the trend at your own peril.

#234 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.10.15 at 1:44 pm

Wouldn’t a real estate agent have loved to get their greedy little paws on a cut of this place.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/03/10/bc-real-estate-boom-wealthy-chinese-buyers/

#235 Waterloo Resident on 03.10.15 at 1:45 pm

#32 Whitby: I don’t use any commercial trading software (or any software actually), this is something I have created myself. All this technical analysis stuff is just a waste of time. I tried it and didn’t like it, so I tried something else, and the technique I developed works for me. All of the commercially available software is sort of crap also. What happens is that something good comes along that gives a few ‘the edge’, then others pile on in and suddenly everyone is using that software and no one has ‘the edge’ anymore. I look at chart patterns, and compare them together, and when certain patterns come along I realize a big move for the S&P, either up or down is going to happen, and it happens around 90% of the time within 5 days of my signal. My system doesn’t work for the TSX, or the NASDAQ, it only works for the S&P, but that’s okay, I’m currently generating 72% per year returns and that’s good enough for me.

#236 bdy sktrn on 03.10.15 at 1:47 pm

You have no point. They’re as Canadian as you. — Garth
——————————
no argument here. legally speaking. culturally less so. is anyone who has never heard of the montreal canadians or the tor maple laughs really a true canuck?

the debate is not really about the origin of the person (we like all nationalities) but the origin of the cash.

cdn/chinese who cares, but when the cash is freshly converted from yuan it’s more hammy than spammy.

from the article (from a dirty dirty realtor) “If you were looking at a house that was $800,000 Cdn. (in yuan terms), now you can look at something for $1 million Canadian.”

#237 Leo Trollstoy on 03.10.15 at 2:01 pm

I’m currently generating 72% per year returns and that’s good enough for me.

How many millions are you working with? $1m-$9m? Or more than $10m?

#238 cramar on 03.10.15 at 2:01 pm

#124 Alberta is AWESOME on 03.09.15 at 11:41 pm
The sun shines down on us.

http://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Canada/Cities/sunshine-annual-average.php

————————–

Interesting! I wonder why Calgary is not the Tomato Capital of Canada? I think it is something called “heat units.”

#239 Waterloo Resident on 03.10.15 at 2:08 pm

My ‘Autopilot’ is simply the sell-stops or buy-stops that you can set in WebBroker, from TD-Waterhouse. I have a trading account there ( they are part of TD bank ) and anyone can open up a self-directed account with them and buy and sell whatever they want.

I used chart analysis to get an idea when something big is about to happen, then when I get a signal that it might be time to set a buy-stop or sell-stop I place a buy-stop or sell-stop using WebBroker’s own trading order system. Usually I don’t use buy stops or sell stops, usually my timing system sees that a target has been hit and tells me that I should place a buy or sell the next day at a certain price. This takes away the massive losses that can happen when extreme volatility happens during one day but usually disappears the next day, something that happens quite a lot.
In about 10% of the time, my system indicates that a sell-stop or buy-stop is necessary, so I place one of those right away. Sometimes the stop hits, other times it doesn’t.
I showed a professional trader my results compared to his results and my results are a lot better than his, yet he’s 10-times smarter than me and has a whole wall in his office devoted to computer screens and a decade of devotion to computer trading software, something that doesn’t seem to be doing anything for him. I told him to ease up on this day-trading stuff, it’s way too much stress and its only a good way to lose money, not make money. If he wants to start making money then start momentum trading like I do instead.

Ontario was warned that they do not have a revenue problem, they have a SPENDING PROBLEM. So what does Catherin Wynne do? She’s going to try to generate more revenue , not cut spending, by selling off Hydro One. Stupid, Stupid, Stupid.

What she’s doing is like a high-income Crack Addict who spends all his free money on Crack, and then when an expert tells him that it’s not a income problem, its his spending on Crack problem he has, instead of stopping buying Crack, he instead goes and tries to sell off his shirt and pants and shoes, things that he needs. That’s exactly what Ontario is doing right now = STUPID.

#240 bdy sktrn on 03.10.15 at 2:30 pm

#238 Waterloo Resident on 03.10.15 at 2:08 pm
————————
what’s your whiz bang program saying about SU XOM CVX COS HAL these days?
inquiring minds want to know!

wti 48.27 .

#241 bdy sktrn on 03.10.15 at 2:35 pm

So what does Catherin Wynne do?
————————-
try to out do bob rae?

i truly feel awful for the ppl suffering under her ‘teachership’.

makes our christy c look pretty damn fine in comparison. and christy is no leader.

#242 Underhoused on 03.10.15 at 2:53 pm

Whether or not TO is a “world class city” may not exactly be at the heart of its desirability or lack thereof.

Many of my colleagues in TO came to Canada to take skilled jobs for which there were no qualified Canadians. For them, Toronto has enough of the things needed to have a good life to make it a desirable place to stay. My colleagues have lived in the world’s great cities — New York, Los Angeles, London, Paris, Rome, Berlin, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Delhi to name a few. For them, the appeal of Toronto is that despite what it lacks, it has: enough cultural amenities not to be a wasteland, ease of transit (most of us live in the downtown core and don’t own cars), a low crime rate and gun control (especially compared to the US, where most of us were before coming to Canada), a high tolerance for cultural difference, easy flights out to wherever (unlike second-tier US cities that aren’t airline hubs), good medical care/health insurance, and, while this may sound strange, affordability (world-leading salaries in my industry and DB pensions).

A few years ago I was offered a job in London (UK) equivalent to the one I have in TO. The London job paid roughly half as much in pounds as I was then paid in CAD (i.e., a 50% reduction in my spending power). Coupled with rents and property prices that made TO look cheap, London, great as it is, wasn’t a place that it made financial sense for me to live. Given the salary differential, I can live in TO and visit London when I please. Not surprisingly, other TO-based colleagues have made exactly the same choice.

Ditto for NYC. In my industry, my NYC colleagues cannot afford to rent or buy “suitable” housing at market rates, and live in employer-owned apartments. While they love the lifestyle, it is expensive, and difficult to save for retirement. Plus, when they retire, they are turfed out of employer-owned housing, forcing them to leave NYC and live on whatever they’ve saved (no DB pensions for them).

TO seems to rate very differently for other posters. But I encounter many people for whom TO is “world class enough” to be a destination of choice.

#243 The American on 03.10.15 at 2:54 pm

At #203: Dub, the U.S. Debt Ceiling is a complete non-event. Yawn. Stroke of the pen. The debt ceiling “debates” are merely used as a platform for grandstanding in American politics.

#244 Alberta is AWESOME on 03.10.15 at 3:00 pm

#237 cramar on 03.10.15 at 2:01 pm

#124 Alberta is AWESOME on 03.09.15 at 11:41 pm
The sun shines down on us.

http://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Canada/Cities/sunshine-annual-average.php

————————–

Interesting! I wonder why Calgary is not the Tomato Capital of Canada? I think it is something called “heat units.”

________________________________________
Yeah, tomatoes suck in YYC… gets too cold at night because of dry air and altitude.. Edmonton is better!

#245 Alberta is AWESOME on 03.10.15 at 3:02 pm

#237 cramar on 03.10.15 at 2:01 pm

#124 Alberta is AWESOME on 03.09.15 at 11:41 pm
The sun shines down on us.

http://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Canada/Cities/sunshine-annual-average.php

————————–

Interesting! I wonder why Calgary is not the Tomato Capital of Canada? I think it is something called “heat units.”
_________________________________________________
Yeah, Calgary sucks for tomatoes.. too cold at night from dry air and altitude.. Edmonton is better!

#246 Ray Vasquez on 03.10.15 at 3:06 pm

To Waterloo Resident #238

You don’t understand, they are going to raise your electricity rates by more than the 10% a year the Liberals did in the last 11 years or so.

They will control costs by letting them go higher but not as high as they could be. What smoke and mirrors.

They are going to spend more on infrastructure and whatever they think is important, not really but add new and higher taxes from property tax portion of the province, education to income taxes, user fees, environmental taxes, fees etc. etc.

Don’t rule out tolls too. They are going to give more power for Toronto and other larger cities to increase, add new taxes too.

We are all going to pay for it. This is what they do!

#247 Mark on 03.10.15 at 3:32 pm

“The only catalyst that will hit Canadian real estate is the removal of CMHC guarantees. “

And you’re right, in hindsight though. As major CMHC changes to their subprime mortgage insurance program, instituted by the late Minister of Finance, marked the top of the Canadian RE market in the 2nd quarter of 2013.

The market has been weakening ever since, only propped up in the media by increasingly bizarre statistical interpretation offered up by certain RE boards.

#248 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.10.15 at 3:43 pm

#238 Waterloo Resident on 03.10.15 at 2:08 pm
_______________________________________
Didn’t our previous government sell of the 407 too for similar reasons? I need money to get my stuff man! When Mike Harris was elected Premier in 1995 on his platform of the Common Sense Revolution, the Ontario government faced a $11 billion annual deficit and a $100 billion debt. Seeking to balance the books, a number of publicly owned services were privatized over the following years. Although initially spared, Highway 407 was sold quickly in the year leading up to the 1999 provincial elections. The highway was leased to a conglomerate of private companies for $3.1 billion.

#249 Musty Basement Dweller on 03.10.15 at 3:47 pm

Thanks to the poster that pointed out Vancouver has a “world class” sewage system. I didn’t know that, guess still waters run deep.

But even with the sewage system I still wouldn’t pay the $1mil plus that they want for a 30 foot tear down here in the east side.

#250 jess on 03.10.15 at 3:47 pm

rethink that embarrassing pee splash perhaps provide collectors lol

“St. Pauli pinkelt zurück”: Spezial-Lack gegen Wildpinkler …
http://www.spiegel.de › … › Gesellschaft › Reeperbahn – Translate this page
Mar 3, 2015 – Speziallack gegen Wildpinkler: “St. Pauli kann sich verteidigen” … machen auf ein Problem, über das sich die Anwohner ärgern: Wildpinkler

========================
Urine power to light camps in disaster zones

March 6, 2015
Source:
University of the West of England
Summary:
A toilet, conveniently situated near the Student Union Bar at the University of the West of England, is proving that urine can generate electricity.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/03/150306111905.htm

#251 everythingisterrible on 03.10.15 at 3:50 pm

Couple links to newspaper articles posted on here regarding HAM in BC Garth, no deletes? I thought that was standard practice on this blog now.

I do what I can to keep the immigrant-haters at bay. It diminishes us all. — Garth

#252 frank le skank on 03.10.15 at 3:54 pm

#206 The American on 03.10.15 at 11:42 am
And no offence meant, but I’ve been to Toronto quite a bit. It is a far, far cry from “world class” status. I agree that Toronto is world class at making itself believe it is “world class.”
===============================

Why so polite? please revert back to your old style of commentary!! I think us nice Canadians are rubbing off on you!!!

#253 Mike T. on 03.10.15 at 3:59 pm

‘Good luck getting a beer in “world class” Toronto after 2am.’

I don’t know if it is still around but I used to go to the Charlotte Room in Toronto.

Buy your OJ at the bar, find a guy in a big coat and get the hooch.

But yeah I mean I obviously see your point.

I have been in a bar for first call, but that is weird, un-necessary and should not be talked about.

#254 bdy sktrn on 03.10.15 at 4:06 pm

temper tantrum too?

rate raise rage?
or
jarring janet jolt?

17,662.94 -332.78(-1.85%)

#255 JimH on 03.10.15 at 4:07 pm

#231 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol

And your point is????? Try to keep up, okay? And engage mouth only when brain is in gear?

#256 bdy sktrn on 03.10.15 at 4:12 pm

#246 frank le skank on 03.10.15 at 3:54 pm
#206 The American on 03.10.15 at 11:42 am
And no offence meant, but I’ve been to Toronto quite a bit. It is a far, far cry from “world class” status. I agree that Toronto is world class at making itself believe it is “world class.”
===============================

Why so polite? please revert back to your old style of commentary!! I think us nice Canadians are rubbing off on you!!!

———————————
my jaw dropped when earlier he said something about van did not suck! (stanley park) first time for everythig i guess:)
he’s getting soft!

#257 Alberta is FINISHED on 03.10.15 at 4:19 pm

Oil had a nice drop today making the oil sands that much more unprofitable. To the deluded realtors on here trying to spin Toronto into a world class city sound more foolish then those in cowtown. Toronto is no world class city. You can maybe compare it to Chicago and even then Chicago has Toronto beat and RE there is 50% cheaper…. so please TO realtors please shut up as your lack of traveling and education is showing. LoL TO a world class city

#258 aL Pacino on 03.10.15 at 4:21 pm

We’ve just added $80 billion in new debt, and families now owe an amount of money larger than the entire Canadian economy. All of that is at interest rates either floating or fixed for a maximum of five years. None of it will renew at a lower rate.

******************************************

Maybe not lower but probably not higher either.

Actually, any loan coming up for renewal from 2016 on certainly will. — Garth

#259 Hot Albertan Money on 03.10.15 at 4:26 pm

‘Good luck getting a beer in “world class” Toronto after 2am.’

While I agree that Toronto isn’t a world class city, I’m not really sure the availability of alcohol is really a factor in determining ‘world class’.

Maybe you’re young, so maybe that’s important to you right now, but after a certain age things like booze and nightlife stop mattering.

#260 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.10.15 at 4:29 pm

#253 JimH on 03.10.15 at 4:07 pm
#231 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol
And your point is????? Try to keep up, okay? And engage mouth only when brain is in gear?
___________________________________________
READ this, that is my point Jimmy boy!
Canada is pretty dam great place to live, if you think its better somewhere else please feel to go Jimmy boy! I wasn’t agreeing with #197 Chris. But my point is your free to go but It aint pretty outside of these borders perhaps you have not lived anywhere else and don’t know how good it is here. I have lived in quite a few places, Jimmy boy! BTW Brain is in gear Jimmy boy, I may be old and a little crotchety but I’m in gear!

#261 Godth on 03.10.15 at 4:29 pm

#226 bdy sktrn on 03.10.15 at 1:10 pm

Just enjoy the homemade wine and fuggedaboutit. As you said it only takes a generation or two. I’m glad there are new immigrants as there’s nothing that great about whitebread culture, they add some spice.

#262 Marco on 03.10.15 at 4:37 pm

@TNT

“Your locally earned average income will never reach the new plateau of the average SFH in any of these cities simple because of the constant demand.”

What a load of Malarkey.
I agree that houses will be expensive in Van and T.O. but prices will come down from this plateau.
Do you really think there will always be enough demand for supply. Come the future when more and more people start unloading for retirement will there be enough offshore people coming in? Will they want to buy in that area? With many homeowners in T.O. and Vancouver full of debt and the younger generation not being able to afford inflated prices, do you not think that prices will lower to a buyers market. FYI foreign buyers don’t care if prices are twice as much or half price but locals do and there are many more local would be buyers and sellers then the flotilla of offshore buyers you envision.
Cheers.

#263 Rob on 03.10.15 at 4:48 pm

#255 Alberta is Finished
Oil had a nice drop today making the oil sands that much more unprofitable. To the deluded realtors on here trying to spin Toronto into a world class city sound more foolish then those in cowtown. Toronto is no world class city. You can maybe compare it to Chicago and even then Chicago has Toronto beat and RE there is 50% cheaper…. so please TO realtors please shut up as your lack of traveling and education is showing. LoL TO a world class city

You are a piece of work. I would wager every cent I have that you have never left Alberta. You are so angry that it can’t be healthy. Actually it is pretty pathetic. Toronto is a great city. I would live in Toronto over Chicago anyday. At least I won’t get shot. You are full of crap buddy.

The president of the US is from Chicago. He’s black. And not shot. — Garth

#264 TRT on 03.10.15 at 4:54 pm

I’m disturbed by your censoring Garth.

In the suburb of Langley in suburban Vancouver, there is a bylaw that states no new religious structures can be constructed. Those already constructed (all churches) are grandfathered.

If there are not boatloads of immigrants coming, why have this law with grandfathering. They don’t want recent immigrants settling in that city.

Again, remember a house just sold for $50 Million plus in VAncity. A house.

This is not an immigrant-bashing blog. I’m not telling you again. — Garth

#265 Mark on 03.10.15 at 5:02 pm

“Your locally earned average income will never reach the new plateau of the average SFH in any of these cities simple because of the constant demand.””

The general long-term rule is that someone with an average income should be able to afford the average property. Now, if density reaches a point at which the ‘average’ property isn’t a SFH, but is rather a multiple-family unit, then the average person may only be able to afford that. However, given that there are no legitimate land constraints in any major Canadian city, it seems extremely realistic that the average person, should they be willing to settle for being located far enough from the city core, should be able to afford a SFH.

Take away all the subprime credit in Canada, and SFH’s would be less than half of their current price. And even more dramatic reductions in places like Vancouver/Toronto. And no, such price decreases would not create a groundswell of demand, since you would have a large number of current owners in severe financial distress because of negative equity and the escalation in risk premia that is usually associated with such. As it stands, risk premia are already rising in most Canadian RE marketplaces on account of the falling prices seen over the past 2 years.

As usual, I agree with Garth, people need to be prepared to pay a lot more for mortgages and other consumer credit going forward. We disagree on causation (he feels the BoC is going to raise policy rates, I believe the BoC is going to continue to chop policy rates, but the lenders will raise risk premia to effectively implement rate hikes on borrowers), but come to the same conclusion.

#266 TRT on 03.10.15 at 5:04 pm

I’m not bashing myself (immigrant).

Anyways, if the Fed raises, dollar index goes thought the roof. Fed waited too long. Morons.

Fed raises = made in USA deflation. More printing?

Fed stands put = long term rates here to stay.

US rates will move steadily higher from 0.25% to about 2% over two years. It will reaffirm a strong, robust economy. — Garth

#267 The Unkown on 03.10.15 at 5:15 pm

The US markets have been tightly correlated with the Greenback in an opposite direction. Most forecasts are for a continuing rise in the $ especially against the Euro.

REITs are dropping and tend to do poorly in a rising rate environment.

Commodities are falling.

Prefereds are offering less yield and harder to come by.

Bonds are going out of fashion.

So how does an investor get 7% out of balanced, diversified portfolio?

The same as in the past. 2015 will be fine. — Garth

#268 Mark on 03.10.15 at 5:17 pm

“In the suburb of Langley in suburban Vancouver, there is a bylaw that states no new religious structures can be constructed”

Doubtful such ‘bylaw’ would even withstand the most cursory of Charter challenges.

Nobody disagrees that there have been significant levels of immigration to Canada particularly in the major cities. The real source of controversy is where certain people, usually with huge conflicts-of-interest, make claims such as such as the claim that immigrants bring substantial amounts of money to Canada. No evidence exists for such on a statistically relevant basis, but that doesn’t stop the usual assortment of bigoted comments.

#269 Smoking Man on 03.10.15 at 5:19 pm

Is this international red neck day, carry on.

#270 young & foolish on 03.10.15 at 5:31 pm

Hmmm … I wonder how beaten down the market will get this time? Will there be anywhere to hide, or are all markets now “interconnected”?

This may prove to be one hell of a volatile year.

#271 young & foolish on 03.10.15 at 5:38 pm

Everywhere you look, it’s the same … unpayable debts … by governments, banks, and individuals. What does that say about our “money”?

But don’t worry …. Keep Calm & Carry On

#272 The Unknown on 03.10.15 at 5:46 pm

# 265 – The same as in the past. 2015 will be fine. — Garth
————————————
With all due respect Garth, almost everything seems to be working against this portfolio at the moment. It doesn’t look any better for the immediate future as well. Do you still think 7% is attainable going forward? Or are you lowering your expectations like most.

When you fret about ‘the immediate future’ you usually have a poor one. — Garth

#273 Mark on 03.10.15 at 5:58 pm

“Anyways, if the Fed raises, dollar index goes thought the roof. “

Fed raises, such is an acknowledgement of rising inflation, and hence, the dollar index should go down. After all, inflation is a reflection of the value of the currency, and rising inflation, by definition, is a weakening currency.

Besides, there’s no long term evidence that money really chases higher interest rates, but plenty of evidence to the contrary.

#274 JimH on 03.10.15 at 6:09 pm

#258 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol

What a juvenile and condescending pile of crap!
“Jimmy Boy”, my ass!

You know nothing about me; my place of residence, my citizenship, nor my feelings toward Canada!

You are, however, bloated with condesending assumptions and blissfully ignorant of the difference between “Patriotism” and “Nationalism”.

#275 aL Pacino on 03.10.15 at 6:17 pm

#260 Marco on 03.10.15 at 4:37 pm
@TNT

“Your locally earned average income will never reach the new plateau of the average SFH in any of these cities simple because of the constant demand.”

What a load of Malarkey.
I agree that houses will be expensive in Van and T.O. but prices will come down from this plateau.
Do you really think there will always be enough demand for supply. Come the future when more and more people start unloading for retirement will there be enough offshore people coming in? Will they want to buy in that area? With many homeowners in T.O. and Vancouver full of debt and the younger generation not being able to afford inflated prices, do you not think that prices will lower to a buyers market. FYI foreign buyers don’t care if prices are twice as much or half price but locals do and there are many more local would be buyers and sellers then the flotilla of offshore buyers you envision.
Cheers.

*****************************************

You don’t have any money, do you…lol
Its funny how people with no coin always see doom and people who do have money, well not so much.
If you guys only understood how much money’s being printed daily ( a train load per day of paper currency ) you would quickly understand why people buy stupid expensive homes.
Governments on a mission worldwide destroying currencies to justify current valuations with no end in sight.
Sadly,its those crazy new purchasers who will end up being winners is what i truly fear.

#276 Nagraj on 03.10.15 at 6:46 pm

#207 OttawaMike
” . . . star angles quiet . . . ”
(Wow. A natural poet.) (Speaking of literature, Smoking Man is much more a dramatist than a novelist.)
LitCrit aside, GT’s answer to ” . . . star angles quiet . . .”: ” . . . positioning for the coming Fed rate increase.”

Any thoughts on utilities ($UTIL) as a leading indicator of interest rate moves? Ditto for insurers. REITS? The utilities today were comparatively quiet, though they’ve been dropping like a rock since the end of January.

How much positioning does an anticipated 0.25 hike require? I could be wrong – but wouldn’t that 0.25, presumably in June, have been baked into the cake already?

#277 Love my Kia on 03.11.15 at 5:36 pm

Interesting blurb on Thunder Bay for most affordable housing in Canada. The average cost looks appealing, but those homes in the ‘average’ category are at least 25 years old and need some degree of work. TBay is an older community with a higher than provincial average of seniors and the only new economic development is based on speculation that the Ring of Fire chromite project will happen soon. Given that mineral prices are down in the dumps right now I don’t see my town being positioned for growth for a while yet.

Numbers don’t tell you everything you need to know.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/thunder-bay/thunder-bay-has-best-real-estate-buys-in-canada-moneysense-says-1.2990716

#278 Dan on 03.13.15 at 4:18 pm

Montreal is only world class city in Canada.
montreal is a beauty.
J’aime Monreal.