We’re here.

SURPRISE modified

Buy America, sell Canada. If you’re one of the unfortunate losers addicted to this pathetic blog, you surely remember that. It was the advice here two years ago (repeated often since) when it became apparent the US was on the path to riches, and we were on the road to horniness.

So, we’ve arrived.

We now know this: American interest rates will be swelling, probably in June, because the States differs from me and no longer requires continuous stimulation. The jobs report on Friday nailed it. Almost 300,000 new positions created last month, the 14th month of massive gains, taking the jobless rate down to 5.5%. That’s considered about normal. So the American central bank can start trashing those emergency interest rates in place for the last six years.

The news also spiked the US dollar, diving ours down to 79 cents and cratering gold by thirty bucks. In fact, Canada looks anemic. The latest trade numbers were the second-worst ever, showing a massive deficit as imports swamped exports. Oil revenues alone were off 23%, and with crude back below fifty bucks, this won’t get better soon.

This is a problem. A dithering economy here with people borrowing their buns off to buy million-dollar houses means it’s tough for the Bank of Canada to unhook us from cheap mortgages, or our own stupidity. But as the States powers ahead, with a surging currency and a rate increase, without higher Canadian rates a 79-cent dollar will soon turn into 75. Up goes the price of imports, sandwiching indebted families.

It gets worse, which is why you love reading this blog. RBC now says idiot Canadians took on $80 billion worth of new debt in the past year alone. Guess when most of it appeared? You bet. In the period since the Bank of Canada dropped its key rate in January. This is what I meant yesterday about the perfect negative correlation between rates and house prices.

In fact the bank said as much: “We saw mortgage rates fall in the month (January) to the lowest they’ve been in 10 years. So that may be encouraging some activity to be brought forward in the market.” So while Americans have been creating jobs, we’ve been busy creating debits. Household debt exploded 4.6% in January alone. People owe $1.82 trillion, which is more than the entire economy of Canada generates. Mortgage debt bloated almost 5.5% year/year in the same month as the bank rate fell. Mortgages alone total $1.3 trillion.

Now recall what we were yakking about here yesterday. The subprime mortgage business in Canada is exploding (25% growth in a year) as people borrow second mortgages in the 12% range just so they can raise the 20% downpayment needed to buy $1-million-plus homes with $800,000 mortgages at 3%.

Does any of this sound remotely sustainable to you?

Job creation in Canada has been weak. Even January’s stronger number saw full-time jobs shrink, part-time positions swell and more people become ‘self-employed’. The 20,000 retail jobs erased at the end of 2014 have yet to show up in the stats, along with an even greater batch in the oil patch. When they do, the loonie will likely sink a little further. It’s this labour news that’s got housing consultant and ex-realtor Ross Kay’s shorts in a twist. He’s now making this prediction for Cowtown: “Calgary will see sales plummet, shocking all analysts who thought a 35% drop was all that was coming.”

Speaking of the energy capital of the country, Greg works downtown, and Friday morning had this report as he snapped the picture below: “This parkade was always full by 7am, even a few weeks ago.   This morning at 8:15 it had 204 spots empty.  Traffic seems lighter in general.”

PARKADE modified

Of course, YVR and the GTA are not Calgary. But I sure hope nobody in either of the two remaining bubbly burgs feels immune from what’s around the corner. The advent of average million-dollar homes in both cities just underscores what cheap rates and house lust will do to a previously perfectly-fine economy.

Our household savings rate, once above 19%, has plunged to the 3% range. RRSP contributions this year are believed to have dropped by more than half. Our debt-to-income ratio has risen faster than in any country other than bankrupt Greece. Four people in ten live paycheque-to-paycheque and half of us could not get by if we missed only one of them. Family debt levels are higher here now than they were in the US before the housing crash.

America got stupid, got whacked and seven years later has repaired.

What stage are we at? Any guesses?

321 comments ↓

#1 Yogi Bear on 03.06.15 at 7:36 pm

What stage are we at? Any guesses?

Guns, ammo and canned tuna stage.

#2 calgaryPhantom on 03.06.15 at 7:38 pm

`”It gets worse, which is why you love reading this blog.”
———————————————————————–

LOL

#3 LazyJason on 03.06.15 at 7:38 pm

The sad thing is that the Cons are going to run on a platform of security and the economy. Not sure what economy they’re talking about tho, since the current one isn’t anything to be proud of.

#4 Yevgeny Shtalenkinov on 03.06.15 at 7:39 pm

Canadians are utterly stupid when it comes to money.

And your hockey teams suck too. Canucks losing to Phoenix?!? What’s up with that?

#5 John Mc on 03.06.15 at 7:39 pm

Greg went out and counted 204 empty spots in the parkade????

#6 Tim on 03.06.15 at 7:44 pm

Stage? We aren’t even finished being stupid yet.

#7 JRH on 03.06.15 at 7:44 pm

It feels like March, 1981 in Alberta again !!

#8 Vancouverite on 03.06.15 at 7:44 pm

Wow, Calgary is in a whole lot of hurt.

In Vancouver, house lust still continues….can’t end well.

#9 RonB on 03.06.15 at 7:45 pm

Pretty sure we’re stuck in stage one wondering when stage two will hit.

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.06.15 at 7:46 pm

Classic picture of dwntown Calgary with the frosty cold and the +15 “hamster tubes” for pedestrians unwilling to risk frostbite.
As for RRSP’s…..nah not this year. Gonna max out on TSFA’s and other investments. Dont want that lurking tax bomb in 25 years.

#11 Smoked squirrel meat on 03.06.15 at 7:46 pm

Needing a telescope to see stupid.

#12 Saskatchewan on 03.06.15 at 7:46 pm

http://www.leaderpost.com/business/Buyer+market+boon+some/10858613/story.html

Comments Garth? How bad do you see the correction hitting Regina and Saskatoon? Realtors here would have you believe its not going anywhere but up.

#13 Andrewski on 03.06.15 at 7:46 pm

Scary stats & it will get worse before it gets better:

http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/bsf-osb.nsf/eng/h_br01011.html

#14 Lisa on 03.06.15 at 7:47 pm

So how much longer do I have to cash out my DB pension and make off with a transfer value that’s inflated due to low long term bond rates? My estimates these days are super high! wanting to leave my job within next few years anyway so maybe Jan ? At least half will be outside tax limits so will count as income.

#15 homeless by design on 03.06.15 at 7:49 pm

Lowest rates in 10 years? Really ? More like lowest rates ever!

#16 J. on 03.06.15 at 7:51 pm

I am guessing we’re at the stupid stage.

#17 seeing it from both sides on 03.06.15 at 7:51 pm

“buy America”

Ok, so US rates go up, and the US equity markets tank. We got a whiff of that today. So what do we buy now?

#18 Smoked squirrel meat on 03.06.15 at 7:53 pm

Kiss keystone bye-bye

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/03/06/canadas-extraordinarily-dirty-oil-extraction-is-reason-for-keystone-xl-concern-obama/?__lsa=0df7-5e8d

#19 Mike on 03.06.15 at 7:56 pm

Can’t cure Stupid :)
Will have to learn it the hard way.

#20 aL pacino on 03.06.15 at 7:56 pm

The stage we’re in is called stupid.
From the average mortgage taker right up the the prime-minister.
Just plain STUPID.

#21 Mark in Guelph on 03.06.15 at 7:57 pm

The Dow falls nearly 300 points just on the prospect of anything other than 0% interest rates. The Fed will balk, no increase in 2015.

#22 Mike on 03.06.15 at 7:58 pm

Long time reader, first time posting. I’m in love but I’m lazy… I’m convinced about the balanced portfolio approach and the buy US, but every time I think about investing my head starts to spin. Is there an ETF that mirrors your suggested portfolio approach? What’s an ostensibly smart (big words even!) guy who is allergic to thinking about investing to do?

#23 Spectacle on 03.06.15 at 7:59 pm

My guess as to the greater view of the “stage we are now in” is a complex, globally, unified-internal-decline.

To explain at copy/past length:
Dynastic cycle (traditional Chinese: 朝代循環; simplified Chinese: 朝代循环; pinyin: Cháodài Xúnhuán) is an important political theory in Chinese history.

According to this theory, each dynasty rises to a political, cultural, and economic peak and then, because of moral corruption, declines, loses the Mandate of Heaven, and falls……..

………..by looking at the succession of empires or dynasties, implying that there is little basic development or change in social or economic structures.

So, we’re talking thousands of years of this. Search “Arkaim ” Arkaim – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia in northern Russia. 10,00 to 30,000 years of demise.

But it’s different this time…? :: not ::

Regards all,

#24 For those about to flop... on 03.06.15 at 8:05 pm

What stage are we at? Any guesses?–Garth.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Yeah this is the stage ,where when I was a kid my dad would tell me to go to my room and to have a think about how stupid I had been that day.
He would come in about half an hour later and asked me if had learnt my lesson. If I didn’t come up with the right answer the belt would come out and he would try to knock some sense into me.
All the while mentioning inspirational quotes like” no pain ,no gain” and ” this is gonna hurt me more than its gonna hurt you”
The point is if we’re going to continue to be stupid were gonna end up getting wacked even harder and for longer.
If the banks and the government pump this thing up much more it has the capacity to affect the majority of the population even if you are minding your own business ,renting and living within your means.
I don’t really want to see anyone suffer but if you are buying a million dollar house with 2 mortgages then maybe you deserved to get whacked across the backside a few times and told to go sit in your room and think about how stupid you are being.
Do I need to call my Dad?

#25 Smoking Man on 03.06.15 at 8:06 pm

BOC got one more rate cut, the trade balance was a disaster.

Got to reluctantly give you this Garth, you are right, USA will spike, although all the jobs created today were Starbucks. The market spoke today, that’s only person I listen to….

Oh, my kid, he’s got his P&L up to 77k made another 13k today…

He’s quit his job, and dumped girl friend.
I’ve created a Monster. It’s on my blog.

She didn’t want him to quit, they fought . Kids today, brainwash to be safe safe safe….

Not in this household..

#26 lala on 03.06.15 at 8:06 pm

As lala said before, we are at the stage of leaving this nonsense. Used to be a good place to live….

#27 Retired Boomer - WI on 03.06.15 at 8:07 pm

What ‘stage’ are you in?

Well, if you are still employed, or retired with adequate income the answer would be “OK.” If you recently became un, or even lesser-employed, I guess you would be concerned, worried, maybe even panicked!

Things are moving rather quickly in not always predictable ways. Ever feel like the silver ball in a pinball game that seems out of control?

That is how I am viewing a fairly high number of acquaintances now. Frac sand mining locally has slowed considerably, (oil related how did we guess that one)?
Transports are off a bit, yet most manufacturers locally are still humming. Diversity helps. Builders seem to be gearing up for a decent season though not spectacular.

Guess I just want to see spring arrive finally! That Florida defrost cycle’s magic has worn off, and looking forward to a longer day next week. Yes!!

#28 Sebee on 03.06.15 at 8:08 pm

We’re in denial! No acceptance yet.

#29 aL pacino on 03.06.15 at 8:09 pm

So, speaking of stupid.
Are you alluding that because of canadians being pickled in that the BOC will not be raising rates ??????
I always said that but you always argued that the bond market will do so for us…
What am i missing ?

#30 Livingincrazyland on 03.06.15 at 8:09 pm

First! Really that’s not what I had to say. I live in North Vancouver and our Real Estate here has entered bizzaro world. In the last 60 days my 1950s bungalow has appreciated 250K. Yes for a cool $1.5 Million you can get a beat up old house in a great neighborhood. Maybe best in Canada but come on, REALLY how can this be a good investment? If you assume this asset appreciates at 3% that’s $45K a year…Who the heck is going to buy this place next?

#31 sam on 03.06.15 at 8:10 pm

What ratio of US to Canadian equities should one have? Right now I’m 1:1 but I think should take it down to 3:1 in favour of US.

#32 Carlos Santana on 03.06.15 at 8:12 pm

Crazy world we’re in. Great job reports again today in the US and a market sell off. Is this market still about company valuation or about what the FED will do ?

No matter what, my balanced portfolio was a bloodbath today…

Have a good weekend !

#33 Huivbig on 03.06.15 at 8:12 pm

One thing I’ve always wondered – as real estate prices increase, somebody must be making a profit (developers, speculators, regular folks who sell and rent or downsize, etc).

Where does it go? Is there data showing correlation between increase in income inequality and house prices? Or is it something that becomes clear only after the eventual crash, because while prices are up everybody is wealthy on paper?

#34 carl on 03.06.15 at 8:14 pm

Subprime mortgages are not “exploding”. A 25% increase from a low basis does not make for a good assumption.

#35 Freedom First on 03.06.15 at 8:15 pm

Garth and Ross Kay have been telling us the truth and continue to do so. I owe you both a thanks as I have seen things the same way for years and this Blog has been a refuge/oasis from the tsunami of financial bad advice coming from the usual suspects. I am an unfortunate loser truth addict.

Life is very very good and I am grateful as I have 0 debt and own nothing but assets. This shows my fellow Canadians that I am not that bright, happy and content, but not very bright.

#36 Darth Vader formerly Darryl on 03.06.15 at 8:18 pm

All I know is YAH BABY ….I GOT DELETED :) (last post)
Time to change my name to something dark and sinister .

Come on Garth
It’s a good laugh. I can’t be last post. I got deleted!!!

LOL

#37 nik on 03.06.15 at 8:20 pm

Obviously, the people buying the $1M+ houses are a small minority and they are taking the risk because their cash flow situation allows them to do so. Weaker CAD means that the housing is at a 20% discount to overseas buyers.
Is there any evidence that mortgage levels are leading to lower savings rates?
Canadians, in general, are screwed due to a number of factors and housing is just one of them. I consider the economy’s inability to create quality jobs to be the biggest threat over the next three years.

#38 RAINCOUVER on 03.06.15 at 8:27 pm

Typical 604:
http://www.northshorerealty.ca/listing/v1108988-1705-macgowan-av-north-vancouver-bc-v7p-2×3/

#39 FrankFrankington on 03.06.15 at 8:29 pm

Buy USA/Sell Canada. I started doing it 18 months ago. My portfolio is happy.

However I love a good deal. When do I start buying Canada?

#40 Andrew Woburn on 03.06.15 at 8:31 pm

I guess we need to be more respectful of millennials on this blog. There’s more of them than us, at least in the US.

This is an interesting little snapshot of millennials from your friendly local vampire squid.

http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/outlook/millennials/index.html

#41 straight up on 03.06.15 at 8:32 pm

American interest rates will be swelling, probably in June…

HAHAHHAHAH

from what?

0% to 0.25%
0.5% by year end.

HAHHAHAHAHA
what a joke

The Fed rate is .25% and is on its way to 2% over the next year or so. Hardly insignificant. — Garth

#42 Fan #42 on 03.06.15 at 8:34 pm

“What stage are we at? Any guesses?”

Whacking stage, so it’s time to grow up Kanaduh!
Energy East, pipeline to west.
Get off the US teat.
Be a real country.

#43 Happy Renting on 03.06.15 at 8:35 pm

I read blog posts to my daughter because they’re funny and educational. I was not prepared for the hilarious bomb below (she’s too young to request any explanations, at least!)

We now know this: American interest rates will be swelling, probably in June, because the States differs from me and no longer requires continuous stimulation.

#44 Andrew Woburn on 03.06.15 at 8:35 pm

“Rare is the public policy panel where someone does not bring up the fading grandeur of America’s middle class, and when they do, rare is the participant who does not sorrowfully nod and agree that yes, living standards are bad and getting worse, and today’s children are the first generation in our nation’s history that cannot expect to be better off than their parents. Perhaps a techno-libertarian will pop up to note that we have immensely powerful computers in our pockets, a seemingly infinite wealth of information and entertainment available on demand, and an array of other technological marvels, like self-driving cars, coming down the pike. Then the argument over whether living standards are rising or falling will rage for a few moments. But no one will ask what seems to me to be the most obvious question: what does that even mean?”

It’s Complicated. But Hopeful.

http://www.cato-unbound.org/2015/03/04/megan-mcardle/its-complicated-hopeful

#45 Randy on 03.06.15 at 8:36 pm

Why blame the cons ? Canada is a national of socialists that hate capitalism and competition. It’s been this way for a long time. Nothing has changed….until tomorrow !

#46 ILoveCharts on 03.06.15 at 8:37 pm

Hopefully I will avoid the DELETE button with this one but let me ask a legitimate question:

Canadian houses are looking even more affordable for off-shore buyers as a result of dropping CAD.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CNY&to=CAD&view=2Y

Folks in YVR: How are you seeing this play out in the streets?

There is no data confirming this. But we have ample data showing Canadians are gorging on new mortgage debt. We are to blame for this. Stop blaming others. — Garth

#47 Cordoroy Cowboy on 03.06.15 at 8:39 pm

On another front, I see that Canadian REIT’s are down along with the rest of the market. Crystal ball aside, do you think that it’s time to back up the truck or do you think that there’s more of a free fall to come? …or am I going to get a rap on the head for trying to time the market?

A rap. Set the correct weightings and stick with them. — Garth

#48 Simplyput7 on 03.06.15 at 8:39 pm

I work downtown Toronto and commute into the city during rush hour(s), I also noticed less people taking transit. I didn’t think much about it. Maybe there’s more to it than just the government actually improving traffic congestion in the city.

#49 Bollinger RSI on 03.06.15 at 8:40 pm

#25 Smoking Man

Congrats for the kid!

Can’t wait for you to release the recipe… even if 99% screws it up.

#50 Suede on 03.06.15 at 8:42 pm

Only bc all economists and pundits agree that CDN rates won’t go lower they will. Trade deficit was baaaaad

Then one final spike high in van and Toronto RE

Then basement dwellers will buy on the first big dip, get suckered into a bear trap.

Then we normalize.

#51 Cowtown Corporate on 03.06.15 at 8:42 pm

FYI – Most oil and gas companies give either 1 or 2 paid Friday’s off every month. That’s why the parking lots aren’t full.

#52 Andrew Woburn on 03.06.15 at 8:43 pm

The link between Canadian resource prices and China’s debt addiction. Take a sea-sick pill before you read it.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/chinas-economy-can-still-blindside-canadian-portfolios/article23318290/

#53 lou on 03.06.15 at 8:46 pm

I think 2016 will be the big year (down)…a lot of folks will finally get ‘religion’ when it does (invest in pharmacuticals). interest rate cuts can be very potent though…globally central banks don’t seem to mind throwing around some nirp…

as to ‘stimulation’, who needs it when you’ve got a harley thumping away between your legs…

#54 Washed Up Lawyer on 03.06.15 at 8:46 pm

#27 Retired Boomer – WI

Interesting observation from the vast sands of WI about the slowdown in the frac sand industry there. It coincides with more that just the dropping rig count. There was an article today in the Financial Post with a newly coined term “Fracklogging” (backlogging) meaning drillers are completing the horizontal legs of the tight rock wells but are not proceeding with the hydraulic fracturing. That can come back on pretty quickly if oil prices move up.

#55 Tripp on 03.06.15 at 8:48 pm

Garth, this time we don’t agree.

I’m an addicted winner!

#56 ultro on 03.06.15 at 8:48 pm

We are at stage of no return. If you read this blog sell while you still can. Grab cash and retire on the beach.

#57 ILoveCharts on 03.06.15 at 8:49 pm

“There is no data confirming this. But we have ample data showing Canadians are gorging on new mortgage debt. We are to blame for this. Stop blaming others. — Garth”

I have no doubt that Canadians are going deep into debt and are playing the leading role in this mess. However, the influence of foreign money may prove to be interesting at key points in the timeline.

#58 BlackDog on 03.06.15 at 8:53 pm

@Sebee #28, re: “We’re in denial! No acceptance yet. ”

Anger is next.

#59 Grader Fuel on 03.06.15 at 8:54 pm

We’re at the stage where everyone can stop worrying. Now it is time to PANIC!

#60 BlackDog on 03.06.15 at 8:57 pm

@Garth re: ” We now know this: American interest rates will be swelling, probably in June, because the States differs from me and no longer requires continuous stimulation.”

Is there also hope for you?

#61 Dogman01 on 03.06.15 at 8:59 pm

In Arizona on a visit , near ground zero of the U.S. housing collapse as there are some abandoned sub divisions nearby.
Things seem booming here, lots of new construction, etc.was here two years ago and there is clear evidence of optimism and growth.
Back to Calgary in a week, sure seems gloomy there.

#62 ANON on 03.06.15 at 8:59 pm

What stage are we at? Any guesses?

Best guess? D has rammed the door, cleaned up the splinters left in the frame, jumped into the middle of the room and looked around, piercing everyone’s eyes. Most still rub their eyes mumbling “wha’appened?”, while some, who have a hazy idea, try to duck into a corner, but can’t get past the mumbling crowd. Even fewer wait reconciled in their place, knowing not much can be done at this point, except maybe duck when necessary.
Now come the blows.

#63 Snowboid on 03.06.15 at 9:00 pm

“Buy America, sell Canada”

The latest stats here in Arizona clearly show some Canadians were listening.

From the latest CABC 2015 resource guide:

“…Canadian residents account for 93% of all internationally owned residential property in Maricopa County (Greater Phoenix) worth 4.8 billion US dollars.

Canadians also account for 90% of all internationally owned nonresidential (commercial) properties in Maricopa County (Greater Phoenix) worth 7 billion US dollars…”

There are around 900,000 Canadians who visit for all or part of the year and 100,000 Canadians living here fulltime. 300 Canadian companies are operating in Arizona (largest is BMO Harris).

On our first ‘buying’ trip in 2010 the first people we met were Canadians working for an Canuck company in Scottsdale.

They were part of a large group of Canadians that put together a proposal and built what was the first and only Arizona curling rink!

What stage is Canada at?

The stage when those first Canadians we met told us of their adventures about eight years ago. They (and many others) were convinced they were going to become rich on real estate.

They purchased two ‘highly leveraged’ investment properties (both new) at the peak – they were leased back to the developers as ‘show-homes’ – this in addition to their principal resident in Scottsdale.

They ended up declaring bankruptcy, having lost over $ 700K when the developer went bust and they couldn’t sell or rent the homes.

Most of the Canadians we know here purchased around 2009-2013.

#64 kabloona on 03.06.15 at 9:03 pm

#5 John Mc – Look harder……see the little green number?

;-)

#65 waiting on the westcoast on 03.06.15 at 9:04 pm

“#46 ILoveCharts on 03.06.15 at 8:37 pm

“Canadian houses are looking even more affordable for off-shore buyers as a result of dropping CAD.”

The first time I went to Argentina, I was thinking… Hey, I should buy an apartment and rent it out. The collapsed peso made for some cheap digs that could be leased out as vacation property. One reason I passed was because I wondered what if the peso falls further. A declining Canadian dollar is not when I would invest… Wait until the bottom and some solid lift occurs and then a foreigner will become interested..

#66 Rudy on 03.06.15 at 9:04 pm

Canadians have reached a stage of ‘irrational exuberance’ when it comes to housing. Generally the market segment that can bid up prices are the 30-45 yr old—possessors of upwardly moving incomes and therefore feel paying a premium for dwellings in short supply which can be absorbed with future high income earning years.

My concern is with the amount of higher grossing positions (aerospace, banking, mining, oil&gas, manufacturing) being terminated and replaced with a greater number of lower grossing jobs. This statistically appears as more jobs are being created but have a net negative GDP. In my opinion this phenomenon of what I call the ‘GDP Job Swap’ has been happening for at least 3 quarters.

There is a fundamental problem in Canada as we are no longer the low cost producers of anything in the world. Until we fundamentally restructure our philosophy, costing and way of doing business, multinational companies will do business elsewhere in the world that will improve their bottom line.

#67 waiting on the westcoast on 03.06.15 at 9:06 pm

We are at the teenager stupid phase… “Don’t worry, I got it…”

#68 Gremlin on 03.06.15 at 9:06 pm

#25 Smoking Man on 03.06.15 at 8:06 pm
BOC got one more rate cut, the trade balance was a disaster.

Got to reluctantly give you this Garth, you are right, USA will spike, although all the jobs created today were Starbucks. The market spoke today, that’s only person I listen to….

Oh, my kid, he’s got his P&L up to 77k made another 13k today…

He’s quit his job, and dumped girl friend.
I’ve created a Monster. It’s on my blog.

Sounds like you are a good teacher, Smoking Man. Perhaps you can teach us your secret sauce some day. Until then, maybe you can tell me which forex app you are using.

#69 Dogman01 on 03.06.15 at 9:06 pm

#14 Lisa
Same nice problem I have, when do I cash the DB pension in and run. I believe it is known as the 54/11 retirement, just before you hit 55.
The Alberta CONS tried to play some games with our fully funded and successful pension Last year and in their current crisis will go after it again.
I to noticed the payout goes way up with low interest, not sure the mechanics of that.
Big decisions , but better then no options.

#70 Smoking Man on 03.06.15 at 9:14 pm

#49 Bollinger RSI on 03.06.15 at 8:40 pm
#25 Smoking Man

Congrats for the kid!

Can’t wait for you to release the recipe… even if 99% screws it up.
………

I’m little reluctant to do it, it’s a dangerous game, my fear is some yahoo with a young family trys this and gets wiped out. Then they hunt me down at Seneca or Southside Johnnys.

I can show you how, but emotions will kill you.. That’s why I say practise for two years, but you know the secret based on your name.

I’ll think about sharing…my kid can get wiped out five times, got a big stack to fall back on..

But this is pure adulterated GAMBLING. make no mistake.

And I kind of hope my kid gets wiped out before any of you yahoo’s try this.

#71 TurnerNation on 03.06.15 at 9:17 pm

Ughhh. Tedium.
My inner child wants to beat up Mark’s inner child.

#72 Andrew Woburn on 03.06.15 at 9:17 pm

I guess only old people remember the time when we actually believed that the People’s Republic of China was trying to be an egalitarian socialist worker’s paradise.

“HONG KONG — Lawmakers in much of the world are often accused of being in the pockets of billionaires. But there’s a difference in China. Here, the lawmakers are the billionaires.

Among the 1,271 richest Chinese people tracked by the Shanghai-based Hurun Report, a record 203, or more than one in seven, are delegates to the nation’s Parliament or its advisory body, which will convene for their yearly joint session this week in Beijing. According to figures released by the Hurun Report on Monday, the delegates’ combined net worth is $463.8 billion, more than the annual economic output of Austria.”

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/03/03/world/asia/in-chinas-legislature-the-rich-are-more-than-represented.html?

#73 no blame on 03.06.15 at 9:19 pm

There is no data confirming this. But we have ample data showing Canadians are gorging on new mortgage debt. We are to blame for this. Stop blaming others. — Garth

———

Yesterday we saw the article with full of data, showing that North American real estate, commercial and residential is packaged into REITs, for Chinese, Indian investors to gain RE exposure in North America.

It’s just business… on a global scale.

That’s the key here… no blame, just the realization that RE of selected cities in North America are simply part of the global REIT offering. It’s part of buying US and Canada. Here are more details, but please read the article, it gives an interesting context.

http://therealdeal.com/issues_articles/the-year-of-the-chinese-investor/#

#74 GA on 03.06.15 at 9:20 pm

Any way to short RE Garth? I think we near or at the top here.

#75 takla on 03.06.15 at 9:21 pm

Interesting the correlation between the stock market and an improving U.S economy.They get great new jobs numbers and the DOW 30 gets wacked for 300 points.
Youd think the dow would go the other way,i guess the prospect of stimulas {fed cash} disappearing and interest rates riseing is enough to scare the investing crowd knowing the possibility this gravy train may be over soon

#76 Mister Obvious on 03.06.15 at 9:21 pm

#32 Carlos Santana

“No matter what, my balanced portfolio was a bloodbath today…”
—————————

Really? Mine hardly budged at all. Perhaps you’re due for a portfolio review.

#77 Sebee on 03.06.15 at 9:23 pm

#58 BlackDog

Is regret somewhere on that list?

#78 Smoking Man on 03.06.15 at 9:26 pm

My kid uses AVAtrade brokerage, with Metatrader app. He trades on his phone, Bastards take a 4 pip spread, 30 contact bet, your in the hole 1,200

I use something more geared for the pros, a little API I created..patent pending.

Once my son learns IOS, keysme, my kick ass text encryption monster will be a available for IPhone and Android.

Hoping to join the billionare club. At which point, I will hire Garth full time to safely manage my loot safely. Lol

#79 Hot Albertan Money on 03.06.15 at 9:28 pm

#5 John Mc…The # of empty spots are in the picture. (automated counter)

@ Garth…I listened and am at a ratio of about 2:1 (Usa:Canada), but if rates go up and markets tank then what?

Why would markets tank? Stop worrying and stay invested. — Garth

#80 TurnerNation on 03.06.15 at 9:30 pm

Estevan is Finished?
“Ruinning back to Saskatoon:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFEIVkSHaJU

Businesses in Estevan, Sask., reeling from oil price collapse

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/businesses-in-estevan-sask-reeling-from-oil-price-collapse-1.2982962

CBC.ca-Mar 5, 2015

Estevan, the city at the centre of Saskatchewan’s oil boom, is now grappling with a bust. Early March is usually a busy period for drilling in …

#81 Yuus bin Haad on 03.06.15 at 9:30 pm

#whatstageareweat

#82 Cd on 03.06.15 at 9:35 pm

So like 4-5 years ago I bought a lot of American investments. Took advantage of the exchange rate. Things worked out quite well. So the question, when does sell American buy canadian occur?

#83 Cici on 03.06.15 at 9:35 pm

#46 ILoveCharts

How affordable can that be when every time rates and the currency drop home prices go higher? Whatever these buyers gain through currency devaluation they’re losing on the actual transaction costs.

#84 Cowbro on 03.06.15 at 9:37 pm

#51 Cowtown Corporate
FYI – Most oil and gas companies give either 1 or 2 paid Friday’s off every month. That’s why the parking lots aren’t full.

That’s a pretty good point. I think it needs to be said. Someone not working dt Calgary oil might not know this.

From what I’m hearing though, from friends working dt is that everyone is worried about their jobs, and there is a consensus that there will be more layoffs if this oil price continues into the year.

#85 JRM on 03.06.15 at 9:39 pm

#5 John Mc – Look harder……see the little green number?

Oh duh… thanks!

#86 #24 For those about to flop on 03.06.15 at 9:40 pm

Haaaaa. “NELSON”.

#87 Two in the pink, one in the stink on 03.06.15 at 9:41 pm

Skewed, blued, and tattooed

#88 Retired Boomer - WI on 03.06.15 at 9:41 pm

#54 Washed up layer

Interesting that you used the word “if”….if oil prices move up…. Naturally, they will when external forces are not keeping them artificial depressed.

When that happens though…. anybody’s guess.

We really have no immediate replacement for oil.

#89 The American on 03.06.15 at 9:43 pm

It’s no secret that my Canadian friends know my *real* identity. I can say this: Fed rate is assuredly pressing up by June of this year. How would I possibly know this information to be true? Well, 17 years as a Sr. Analyst, Correspondent, and Executive Director in Global Transaction Banking for the second largest financial services company and bank on the planet would give me a pretty damn good inside track as to where we know rates are going. We have internal executive sessions surrounding this topic of discussion now nearly once a week. Why oh yes, in fact we had this meeting today. Cheers to all who are prepared and good luck to those who don’t believe it. Banks are prepared. Are you? BTW, Garth is without questions correct in his assumption to see a 2%+ increase over the next year. Don’t believe it? Well, what are you willing to bet? Hedge and hedge now while you still can.

#90 Andrew Woburn on 03.06.15 at 9:44 pm

#54 Washed Up Lawyer on 03.06.15 at 8:46 pm
There was an article today in the Financial Post with a newly coined term “Fracklogging” (backlogging) meaning drillers are completing the horizontal legs of the tight rock wells but are not proceeding with the hydraulic fracturing. That can come back on pretty quickly if oil prices move up.
========================

For a long time, the Saudis were the price police of the oil market because they were the swing producers. They could quickly ramp significant amounts of production up and down. Saudi officials have been quoted as saying that it is now the Americans’ job to play the swing producer because they can turn fracked oil volumes up or down almost at will.

Since there are so many indebted US producers it is likely that the fracking tap will not turn off until the price drops to the marginal cost of production and will turn on again quickly as prices rise above it. The result should be a fairly stable US price band just above marginal cost until the supply of producing wells starts to decline.

You might be able to confirm this but I have read that US fracked oil consists of mainly lighter fractions which are great for gasoline but not for diesel and other heavier products. I have also read that these lighter fractions are used as diluents (dilution) for moving bitumen through pipelines. The idea that US fracking will shut Canadian oil out of the US market is a bit overwrought.

#91 OttawaMike on 03.06.15 at 9:51 pm

If Ross Kay and Garth Turner don’t learn to keep their damn mouths shut, I can see them at risk of all sorts of nasty incident/accidents.
Such as — an unfortunate falling out of the 2nd floor window at an open house or impaling themselves on the end of a for sale sign stake or running in front of a leased Audi..

#92 The American on 03.06.15 at 9:54 pm

And one more thing for the naysayers… The U.S. economy is absolutely ON FIRE and cooking better than even we bankers could imagine. Credit faucets are on full force for credit worthy entities and individuals. No more bad loans on this side of the fence. $1 USD now purchases $1.262 CAD. Funny how that works when $1 CAD only buys $0.792 USD. Americans already witness a 25%+ decrease in Canadian real estate values over the past 6 months, relative to currency exchanges. Now, couple this with the fact Canadian real estate values have also compressed within that time (we are estimating 9%-14%, depending on the market), and well you do the math. Without transparency into the Canadian MLS and Public Tax and Recording Records (we have full transparency in the U.S. BY LAW), the melt in Canada may be even more painful that what was seen in the U.S. Okay, okay, okay, I’ll go ahead and say it… It will most definitely be more painful than what was seen in the U.S. No doubt about it. Demand transparency into your system now, and demand change. It is WAY too easy to skew data and manipulate real estate numbers in Canada.

#93 H on 03.06.15 at 9:57 pm

Umm we are at this stage:

Oil will continue to rise. Our dollar will float here.

With the dollar floating here and dollar rising we will soon see inflation showing up.

Goods at stores more expensive, more expensive energy.

This will cause the BOC to raise rates. Rates will move with USA. SLOWLY

By the way Garth, perhaps you might want to take a look at those jobs created south of the border. Specifically how many were waiting tables, and serving drinks.

Wouldn’t be to quick to call a rate hike yet.

#94 Karma on 03.06.15 at 9:59 pm

#12 Saskatchewan on 03.06.15 at 7:46 pm
“http://www.leaderpost.com/business/Buyer+market+boon+some/10858613/story.html

Comments Garth? How bad do you see the correction hitting Regina and Saskatoon? Realtors here would have you believe its not going anywhere but up.”

According to my colleague in Calgary who manages an office tower in Regina, the office vacancy went from about 5% at the end of Q2 2014 to over 11% by the end of Q4 2014. I believe he was quoting CBRE data. But it could be another brokerage.

And another colleague, who manages a large, Class A office tower in Calgary, said that leasing activity in the office has been essentially zero since the new year started. Very few tours being done, and big companies are subletting space at base rates close to half of what the head lease rates are.

And Industrial base rates in Edmonton have been cut by 10% in their appraisals over the past 6 months, despite a very low vacancy rate. Calgary’s base rates have fallen only 4%…

The big oil machine is slowing down…

Case and point:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-06/canada-posts-second-highest-trade-gap-on-record-amid-oil-plunge

#95 BlackDog on 03.06.15 at 9:59 pm

@Sebee #77 re: ” Is regret somewhere on that list?”

Not exactly, although maybe regret fits under ‘Depression’.

The five stages of grief (which could be applied to the death of the housing market as well) are: Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, and finally Acceptance.

#96 The American on 03.06.15 at 10:01 pm

60 straight months of job growth in the U.S. announced today!! YAY! BAM!

#97 Ray Vasquez on 03.06.15 at 10:02 pm

What is all this talk about interest rates can be set to -5% a year.

The new monetary policies in Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, Austria etc. and is this true or is it all a bunch of bull?

Switzerland with -0.75% at their central bank is already here.

#98 Pre-retiree on 03.06.15 at 10:04 pm

To #22 Mike.
I can understand completely how you feel. You are asking: “How do I get started?”
So, read Canadian Couch Potato and this book, as a start,
ETF for Dummies Canadian Edition (even if you are smart). A few years old now, but very enlightening. Then, you open an account at a brokerage firm, and you take the plunge. You will know by then, more or less, what you should do. Oh, and continue reading the blog.

#99 H on 03.06.15 at 10:04 pm

Interesting observation from the vast sands of WI about the slowdown in the frac sand industry there. It coincides with more that just the dropping rig count. There was an article today in the Financial Post with a newly coined term “Fracklogging” (backlogging) meaning drillers are completing the horizontal legs of the tight rock wells but are not proceeding with the hydraulic fracturing. That can come back on pretty quickly if oil prices move up.
_______________________________________

Noooo, it cant. You need crews, machines etc. That is no longer in service. This is something that should be occurring regularly. Soon you will see well depletion kick in and the in ability to catch up to increasing demand. With 4 million barrels coming from depleting sources that require REGULAR fracking, it will rapidly become apparent what a shut down means.

Its coming. By summer you will be reading “$150 Oil”

#100 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 03.06.15 at 10:06 pm

Housing Trends

So Much for Downsizing

Are Builders Building the Wrong Type of Home?

#101 Blacksheep on 03.06.15 at 10:08 pm

“Of course, YVR and the GTA are not Calgary. But I sure hope nobody in either of the two remaining bubbly burgs feels immune from what’s around the corner.”
—————————————————
With 70 % owner ship rates, canadian RE is a sovereign gov. supported, central bank backed, Ponzi scheme. They control everything, with their re election hinging on RE being stable or going up.

I believe betting the system will correct, at this late date, is a fools pursuit (speaking from first hand experience).

The much celebrated US recovery has lit a fire under manufacturing in the Fraser Valley. Busiest we have been in 5 years. A lack of journeymen is starting to become a factor in delivery times. This will only spread in canada as demand increases.

The federal a-*****, may just pull this off.

#102 young & foolish on 03.06.15 at 10:10 pm

“Crazy world we’re in. Great job reports again today in the US and a market sell off. Is this market still about company valuation or about what the FED will do ?”

Well paying jobs are in decline … everywhere. No matter what the local corporate tax rate (don’t let the cons fool you). Things never go back to “the way they were”, and neither do prices.

#103 bill on 03.06.15 at 10:13 pm

Canada is busy texting about the great house/condo/townhouse they just bought and not paying attention to the oncoming semi truck as they stride – oblivious- into the busy through fare. if they are lucky they will come to in a hospital bed. if they aren’t so lucky…..

#104 Techno Libertarian on 03.06.15 at 10:15 pm

As always, thanks for the blog Garth.
#22 Mike on 03.06.15 at 7:58 pm
…every time I think about investing my head starts to spin. Is there an ETF that mirrors your suggested portfolio approach? What’s a… guy who is allergic to thinking about investing to do?

Now is a good time to do it.
Of course it all depends on your capital.
Here is the cheap and easy:
1) Go to your favourite bank’s website
2) Apply for trading account linked to a TFSA (most offer $7 per trans.)
3) Go to bank’s closest branch and open the trading account (sign)
4) Research portfolio of EFTs (Couch potato, Garth’s Millennial portfolio, and Horizons and Morning Star are good places to start)
5) Place orders to appropriate weightings
6) Rebalance & Profit!

If you have more capital than this simplistic plan can accommodate, pay someone to do it.

And (#44), I didn’t read the link but, truly mankind is better off than past generations.
Except perhaps in liberty. More choice in some ways but, more tax and some entire sectors are nationalized.

It is when the necessities of life are out of reach that we are poorer. Security, shelter, food, water and knowledge. Not much else. All at historic highs.

And, at the end of day, you can just look around the world and envy your position. Life is good and getting better. For everyone.
It doesn’t seem like it to everyone all the time but, when else in history did people across the world band together to help one country or community. When did so many have so much.

What I do think is that we are at a crossroads. The age of abundance or scarcity. The next 50 years will determine a lot for the species going forward. But then so did the last 50…

#105 BS on 03.06.15 at 10:18 pm

Canadian houses are looking even more affordable for off-shore buyers as a result of dropping CAD.

Folks in YVR: How are you seeing this play out in the streets?

So when our currency drops it is a good thing for foreigners because it is more affordable to buy? How does that work out when they sell? Not so good. A falling currency is not attractive for foreign investment. Any banana republic can tell you that.

To answer your second question how are things playing out in the streets? No change except for locals seem to be buying at a frenzy. Many of those locals are of Asian decent of course as Vancouver’s population is 40% Asian (decent).

#106 young & foolish on 03.06.15 at 10:19 pm

““HONG KONG — Lawmakers in much of the world are often accused of being in the pockets of billionaires. But there’s a difference in China. Here, the lawmakers are the billionaires.”

Hahaha, more proof human nature never changes … money (aka power) makes the rules!

#107 Smoking Man on 03.06.15 at 10:20 pm

For what it’s worth, tomorrow, when Im sobar, I write out my institutions here, i may put up a few illustrations on my blog, then F with you all and post it in Greek. Lol.

But you need to promise me a few things.
First you open a demo account and practice for two years, so when you transition to real money, it’s intuitive, no emotions, no thinking it’s money. no matter how much success you have in your demo account. Wait two years.

Second, you all know I’m writing a crazy ass Fiction book. It’s written, need get sobar long enough to Polish it. When I do.

I need all of you to buy it on the same day, push it up to a best seller. Hopefully it takes off, you will need to lie your asses of on the reviews, best book evet written.

Nothing will trill me more that a shit load of teacher spending 5 bucks and throwing up reading the crapiest book ever written.

That’s it.. O and no one over 35 try and trade forex, you won’t have enough time to recover your loses.

If your over 35, find an advisor… I would suggest the bearded basterd, but then he might think I got some kind of man crush on him. Be uncomfortable if I ever meet him again.

#108 Smoking Man on 03.06.15 at 10:21 pm

One more thing… To hard finding keys, good night

#109 Give a mortgage to anyone on 03.06.15 at 10:23 pm

I work in Calgary near the YYC airport. I often walk past some long term parking lots where people leave their cars before flying north to work in the oil sands. I see parked cars with AB, BC and even ON license plates. The lots seem as full as they were last year.

#110 young & foolish on 03.06.15 at 10:25 pm

“For a long time, the Saudis were the price police of the oil market because they were the swing producers. They could quickly ramp significant amounts of production up and down.”

Now, even to someone who never wears a tin foil hat this sounds naive.

#111 Larry Laffer on 03.06.15 at 10:29 pm

A bit off- topic, but what’s been happening with canadian preferreds? HPR is down nearly 5 percent and CPD isn’t doing any better. Only XPF got along not too badly. Seems to me that this drop in interest rate should have made preferepreferreds and REITs more attractive. What am I missing?

#112 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 03.06.15 at 10:29 pm

I don’t think the wave of aging boomers wanting to downsize will be such a big factor in the coming markets. I question if it will be so much a wave as a ripple.

While I do believe the market for those homes Boomers live in today will drop as more and more do come to market , but I tend to believe that will happen only to a point. As those homes drop in relative value they will in due time been seen as viable alternatives to the consequential demand pull, high cost of those smaller, “downsizer”, “retirement” homes not offering as much flexibility, room for visiting family, or gardening areas. I think if you read the two editorials I earlier posted links to you too might arrive at the same conclusion… especially if you are one of those Boomers.

Ain’t the free market Grand?

};-)

It is what it is.

#113 A Yank in BC on 03.06.15 at 10:31 pm

Without question, most Canadians are at the first stage.. denial. The three remaining stages (anger, depression, acceptance) will inevitably follow.

I wish there was another way.

#114 Karma on 03.06.15 at 10:33 pm

#41 straight up on 03.06.15 at 8:32 pm
“American interest rates will be swelling, probably in June…

HAHAHHAHAH

from what?

0% to 0.25%
0.5% by year end.

HAHHAHAHAHA
what a joke”

The impact of a 25 bps increase from a lower base, say 0.25% to 0.5%, has a bigger impact that from a higher base. This is due to duration. Lower yielding bonds, holding all else equal, will be punished more as rates rise. Similar effect for mortgages. Your payments will increase more upon renewal going from 2.25% to 2.50% than from 3.50% to 3.75%, and so on.

And if you remember, 5 years ago, the BoC rate was 0.25% between April 2009 and September 2010. So there are plenty of mortgages being renewed at about 60 bps higher (assuming no extra discount off of prime) than their original rates.

In other words, it’s no laughing matter.

#115 SWL1976 on 03.06.15 at 10:33 pm

We’re at the stage that many will realize that a debt based economy is destine to an inevitable failure… And just because the US is the least tattery horse in the glue factory, there is no reason to celebrate

You can ignore reality but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality

#116 DisgustMadeMePost on 03.06.15 at 10:36 pm

Wow just heard a piece of Pres Obama’s
talk today about Can oil. He used the description of Canadian oil being extracted in an extremely “dirty” way. Then spoke about how it would have to cross Nebraska …

Just sounded SO bad. Kind of made me feel like he thought Canadians were dirty…

#117 Robert on 03.06.15 at 10:36 pm

Alberta is in total denial as are the knife catching investors in the O&G Sector. Another six months of sub sixty dollar oil these Companies will be forced to take huge write downs combined with free cash flow haircuts right to the scalp. Its ugly for sure and in my humble opinion the true measure of pain will begin to be felt in the second quarter of the year. Time is the teller of all truths.

#118 Last of the Baby Boomers on 03.06.15 at 10:38 pm

@#46

99% as you say. I rent in West Vancouver. Most houses on my block have sold over the last 3 years I have been here. I am within walking distance to schools. The “sold” prices of homes have risen approximely $500,000 per sale over the last 3 years. Can’t see this going any higher. Of the 4 houses across the street from where I live, 4 have been sold, 2 torn down and rebuilt and sit empty. Neighbours to the left are infrequently there. There are no children evident in any of the newly sold homes, although within walking distance of the school. My daughter has many new immigrant friends or international students friends. She loves her friends. She was not able to get into UBC although her friends have received acceptance letters. She is a humanitarian and spends much of her time volunteering for the benefit of children. The world works in mysterious ways.

#119 Smoking Man on 03.06.15 at 10:38 pm

Oh ya I remember, Kevin Orealy said on rado, today, your insane to buy a house in Toronto, bastard has been poching this Web site, you would think Garth programmed his tella prompter.

Sadly the over schooled herd won’t listen.

That’s it good night.

#120 Just wait... on 03.06.15 at 10:40 pm

Just wait till all those shiny new entrepreneurs find out their hands are tied. They can’t fax, phone, no soliciting, one mail or millions of dollars fines.

They can go back to the old fashioned mailers because can’t have government canada post employees out of a job. No wonder they are building all those new jails somewhere to throw the heinous criminals who send out junk email but not junk snail mail!

#121 Washed Up Lawyer on 03.06.15 at 10:46 pm

#97 H

I read your comment and I accept that you know more than I do. Over the last two years I did study the massive growth in the transport of crude by rail and attended a conference in Calgary on the subject.

As a non-business type and a non-economist type, I was astonished at how quickly business can respond to an opportunity. From what? 20,000 bbl/day to 180,000 bbl/day within a couple of years.

It lead me to believe that the idling of men and equipment can turn around, rebound and expand overnight. Really opened my eyes.

At the end of the day, I do not know. I have no experience as a businessman.

#122 I Stand Corrected on 03.06.15 at 10:47 pm

I work in downtown Calgary (O&G) and it feels less busy to me as well. I take the train and it is definitely less busy. It’s true many people get every Friday or second Friday off but a lot of them work extra hours the rest of the week to get the benefit. Also no layoffs at my company….yet!

#123 We’re here. | Realties.ca on 03.06.15 at 10:50 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/03/06/were-here/ […]

#124 The American on 03.06.15 at 10:51 pm

At #112: DisgustMadeMePost, President Obama truly was not insinuating, nor does he believe, Canadians are “dirty.” The pipeline, however, is dirty in everyday imaginable. We don’t want it. We don’t want it. We don’t want it. Republicans are pushing for it (yawn, big surprise there), but it’s not going to happen. Sorry if you were offended.

#125 Trojan House on 03.06.15 at 10:55 pm

“Almost 300,000 new positions created last month, the 14th month of massive gains, taking the jobless rate down to 5.5%. ”

295,000 jobs created however the number of people not in the labour force rose by another 354,000. Could it be that the jobless rate dropped to 5.5% because the labour force participation rate also dropped?

The majority of jobs created were service jobs. For example, almost 59,000 bartenders and waitresses. Didn’t notice very many manufacturing jobs. The US must be doing well because more and more people are going to restaurant and bars.

This is the longest sustained period of US job creation since 1977. But you weren’t born yet, right? — Garth

#126 45north on 03.06.15 at 10:59 pm

America got stupid, got whacked and seven years later has repaired.

What stage are we at?

stupid just stupid

America has repaired in different degrees:

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/michael-shedlock/uneven-housing-recovery-in-pictures

from the chart Performance of Largest 20 States you can see that California is still down 20% from the peak.

Calgary will see sales plummet, shocking all analysts who thought a 35% drop was all that was coming.

so suppose you work in Calgary
but your job is safe
but you own a house
which you cannot sell

which means you get to work and pay the mortgage while you watch house prices sink

#127 ILoveCharts on 03.06.15 at 11:05 pm

@Cici : Why do we have to assume foriegn money is logical when we have proved that local money is not logical?

I also ask why we place so much weight on anecdotes from Cowtown (e.g. the empty parking garage,) but completely ignore anecdotes from Vancouver (e.g. my parking garage full of very young Asian folks driving $100,000 cars.)

You are truly obsessed. Sad. — Garth

#128 Andrew Woburn on 03.06.15 at 11:06 pm

#106 young & foolish on 03.06.15 at 10:25 pm
“For a long time, the Saudis were the price police of the oil market because they were the swing producers. They could quickly ramp significant amounts of production up and down.”

Now, even to someone who never wears a tin foil hat this sounds naive.
=============

Now if you want to come here and debate, I will listen because I’m always ready to learn. If you just want to posture and sneer without supplying any basis in fact, you are indeed young and foolish. So read this and STFU.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Shale-Rivals-OPEC-As-Swing-Producer.html

“Saudi Arabia has long been the only real oil producer in the world that could ramp up or down its production at a moment’s notice. This is due to its very large oil production capacity that is usually not fully utilized. In other words, Saudi Arabia has the ability to produce much more oil than it does in any given year, with this latent “spare capacity” reserved for times of need.”

#129 Ferris B on 03.06.15 at 11:09 pm

“What stage are we at? Any guesses?”

Garth,

Sometimes the genius of your rhetorical questions reminds me of the teacher from Ferris Bueller…he would have surely asked,

“What stage are we at? Any guesses? ..anyone, anyone?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NP0mQeLWCCo

#130 wallflower on 03.06.15 at 11:11 pm

#114 Last of the Baby Boomers on 03.06.15 at 10:38 pm
So sad about how local residents with decent grades get passed over in favour of offshores. The percentage of offshores is huge at UBC*. I think this is tragic. Canadian universities should be mandated to a certain percentage of offshores. My Ontario-born-resident son is in his first year at UBC and as a non-resident he feels very lucky to be there but rooming with his mainlander Chinese boy is definitely not the experience he had hoped for in first year. The mainlander boy is nice enough but the culture gap is so huge and the language skills so weak… that they are like two ships in the night. The Chinese boy’s only interest was getting an account on facebook (not legal back home apparently) and having his insta-250 friends (other mainlanders at UBC). Such a different world from when I went into residence at Waterloo. Lots of Chinese there, too, but they were interested in connecting and communicating with Canadians. No distracting, time-sucking Facebook to keep them in their own world. At any rate, my boy is playing a varsity sport, joined a fraternity (totally surprised me), plays in a mens league off campus, skim boards, skate boards, and cycles (until last week when his bike got stolen which is pretty typical on that campus). Basically, taking the whole experience for everything it’s worth. He has given up on getting the mainlander out for experiences. Just ignores him, now.
*Chatter is that it’s a significant revenue source and I guess with our dollar tanking, the numbers applying will become a deluge.

#131 Karma on 03.06.15 at 11:18 pm

#105 Larry Laffer on 03.06.15 at 10:29 pm
“A bit off- topic, but what’s been happening with canadian preferreds? HPR is down nearly 5 percent and CPD isn’t doing any better. Only XPF got along not too badly. Seems to me that this drop in interest rate should have made preferepreferreds and REITs more attractive. What am I missing?”

5-year GoC yields are up 41 bps since beginning of February (it’s recent bottom).
10-year GoC yields are up 38 bps since beginning of February (it’s recent bottom).

5-year UST yields are up 54 bps since the beginning of February (it’s recent bottom).
10-year UST yields are up 61 bps since the beginning of February (it’s recent bottom).

Are you assuming preferreds would be appreciating in this (albeit short) environment?

You buy preferreds for a tax-advantaged yield. Worrying about short-term capital fluctuations is the sign of an amateur investor. — Garth

#132 PeterfromCalgary on 03.06.15 at 11:19 pm

Fear not Calgary. ISIS is working hard to make sure that long term oil prices will rise.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Iraq-Could-Be-Oil-Market-Linchpin.html

#133 Doug in London on 03.06.15 at 11:23 pm

What stage are we at now you ask? The stage where we will soon find out the hard way that the only lesson most people learn from history is that we learn nothing from history.

As for U.S. stocks I’m glad I bought some back in 2011 when 1) the stocks themselves were on sale, and 2) The U.S. dollar was on sale for under one dollar Canadian. Seems now like ancient history, doesn’t it?

#134 tundra pete on 03.06.15 at 11:24 pm

The upside is the low loonie. With hopefully a 75 cent loonie this will attract droves of tourists to our beautiful country with its trend setting interest rates, temperate climate and smart investors.

This will be a significant economic action plan for the conservative election campaign. Business will be booming to tour Chinese mainlanders as well as Lusty Latinos through 416 and 604 to reinforce how not to spend canuck bucks!

#135 nonplused on 03.06.15 at 11:26 pm

You can’t really count parking spaces in Calgary on a Friday because so many companies have an “every second Friday off’ policy.

#136 Snowboid on 03.06.15 at 11:27 pm

#61 Dogman01 on 03.06.15 at 8:59 pm…

In our area of the NW valley of Phoenix there is a lot of new residential and commercial construction, it’s the most since we bought in 2010.

Plus a new casino going up near the UoP arena, first one in the NW valley – no more trips to Vegas!

#137 Dean Stamen on 03.06.15 at 11:32 pm

It is interesting (upside-down) times.

If the economy improves, the market will go down because the market wants low rates and easing.

If the economy gets worse, the markets go up because there is more speculation of easing.

Are we in upside-down land?

What is one to hope for I really don’t know!

BTW ZPR was my portfolio leader today!

#138 Flyswatter on 03.06.15 at 11:32 pm

Garth,

Any chance of a major meltdown in Canada similar to the 1997 Asian crisis, which was also largely started by debt and then plunging currencies. In such a case, is it better to hoard gold, frozen whale blubber, or beaver pelts to survive the financial Armageddon.

#139 Smoking Man on 03.06.15 at 11:34 pm

#68 Gremlin on 03.06.15 at 9:06 pm
#25 Smoking Man on 03.06.15 at 8:06 pm
BOC got one more rate cut, the trade balance was a disaster.

Got to reluctantly give you this Garth, you are right, USA will spike, although all the jobs created today were Starbucks. The market spoke today, that’s only person I listen to….

Oh, my kid, he’s got his P&L up to 77k made another 13k today…

He’s quit his job, and dumped girl friend.
I’ve created a Monster. It’s on my blog.

Sounds like you are a good teacher, Smoking Man. Perhaps you can teach us your secret sauce some day. Until then, maybe you can tell me which forex app you are using.
…..
How dare you call me a teacher, I’m an educator.. Teachers push behaviour modelling.

#140 nonplused on 03.06.15 at 11:34 pm

I think I’ve come across another root of the problem facing the middle class today:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/wierdest-thing-youll-see-today

I know I paid more in child support, just child support, over the years than my house cost, and I am not done yet. And that doesn’t include all the extras like soccer, clothes for at my house, band, a car, etc. And the only reason my house is so big is so the kids have rooms when they are over.

#141 A Girl Who Invests on 03.06.15 at 11:35 pm

What are you’re thoughts on these TD portfolios? Are these a good investment for people who are retired?

https://www.tdassetmanagement.com/fundDetails.form?fundId=6403&lang=en

Why would you want 63% bonds when rates will soon start to normalize? — Garth

#142 Mukadi on 03.06.15 at 11:41 pm

Canada is at the hard-landing stage!

Those who were not living in San Francisco/Miami or Phoenix in 2008/2009 will hardly understand what I mean.

#143 AACI Home-Dog on 03.06.15 at 11:41 pm

Re: Larry Laffer on 03.06.15 at 10:29 pm
A bit off- topic, but what’s been happening with canadian preferreds? HPR is down nearly 5 percent and CPD isn’t doing any better.

Because they are only “preferred” when they are going up ! Ha !

Ride the long run, you will be ok…relax..it’s the weekend…

#144 noise on 03.06.15 at 11:44 pm

#67 waiting on the westcoast

“We are at the teenager stupid phase… “Don’t worry, I got it…””

Or

“Hold my beer and watch this…”

#145 Sunkcore on 03.06.15 at 11:45 pm

A sunkcore employee based in Calgary here. Many of the 1,000 employee layoffs announced a couple of months ago actually just happened 2 weeks ago. The same goes for several large companies with swank downtown offices. Many were packaged out, so they are not getting Pogey yet….expect that to come in a few months when the cash runs out and the mortgage payments start piling up. It is going to be a brutal Spring in cowtown for housing and is already brutal for people losing their jobs and also having zero prospect to find other work. Layoffs in AB are in the tens of thousands and all high quality jobs…..no Starbucks jobs here. Housing will dive 20-30% here for sure…..the only question is, will it drop more?!?!

#146 DM in C on 03.06.15 at 11:46 pm

#51 — FYI – Most oil and gas companies give either 1 or 2 paid Friday’s off every month. That’s why the parking lots aren’t full.

+++

Very true. And don’t forget the 14k people who work for the city, many on compressed work weeks. Perhaps the photo should be restaged at 7am on a Tuesday morning.

I commute from my far flung NW suburb mcmansion daily, that 20min drive just kills me. Frankly, commuting in Halifax took longer. I don’t know why people bitch about the traffic in Calgary. At least there are 4-5 ways to get around it (except if you’re stuck on that godawful Deerfoot) – Halifax only has two bridges and two highways off the peninsula.

#147 DisgustMadeMePost on 03.06.15 at 11:46 pm

The American
Banks are prepared. Are you? BTW, Garth is without questions correct in his assumption to see a 2%+ increase over the next year. Don’t believe it? Well, what are you willing to bet? Hedge and hedge now while you still can.

From what I read, those short US dollars are being squeezed. Those kind of interest rate rises will cause a blow up in US denominated debt. Still to be seen what will happen obviously, but those kind of defaults won’t be good for anyone.

Despite whatever you are reading, US rates will increase and there will be no widespread defaults. — Garth

#148 Ron on 03.06.15 at 11:55 pm

A couple of days ago a made a comment about the US basically counterfeiting to give the illusion of wealth and recovery. I stated the fact of disappearing manufacturing jobs and the US hardly produces anything. Garth made a comment that the US is creating technology jobs instead. Please Garth backup your comments with facts. Unfortunately you sound very similar to the people here in Vancouver that talk about foreigner investors that don’t exist and all the other made up reasons why it is different with our real estate. You react the same as people who are drinking the Kool Aid when it comes to your total believe in the great US recovery. Please don’t disappoint me and all the followers on this blog by not backing up your opinions by fact. I have done research to see how many Americans are employed in technology. It is a very small percentage and can’t begin to carry the US into prosperity. If you really look at all the facts the US is a complete disaster and a complete train wreck. I do however agree that the US is in recovery but I disagree with you as to why. Just like any bubble if enough people believe in the fantasy it will happen…….for a while. Please in the future don’t use reasons for your viewpoint that aren’t backed by facts. The unfortunate situation that the world is facing is that no one wants to pull the plug on the US. If they do the whole world collapses. So China, India, you and I still take a US $100 bill and use it as currency. The only thing holding it up is the belief it is worth $100. Very similar to the believe a crack shack in Vancouver is worth 1,000,000+.

#149 Waterloo Resident on 03.07.15 at 12:01 am

I read the summary of the U.S. job report and it said that EVERY sector was strong, with the exception of mining and oil production. Guess what are the 3 sectors powering Canada’s economy:

1 – Real Estate Sales/Construction,
2 – Mining,
3 – Oil Production

So 2 out of 3 of our once booming sectors are dead.

Manufacturing is gone.
(Think Electro-Motive locomotive plant in London)
Food processing is fading.
(Think of ketchup or cereal plants shutting down.)
Retail is fading fast (Think Target stores.)

So really, all that’s left is government jobs and Real Estate sales/construction.

Once real estate sales/construction is dead, there won’t be anything other than government jobs, and we already know how the big credit rating agencies in the U.S. are breathing down Ontario’s neck, telling the government that they have a massive spending problem. Well, with incomes falling and thus tax revenue about to crater soon, its going to get a lot worse. If real estate crashes the Ontario government will have to cut spending in a big way and that means a ton of government layoffs. That will be the last strong sector o the economy to finally go, and with the government unions so strong its gong to be all out war.

When that happens I don’t want to be living here, I’ll be gone to some other country instead (some place with stake health care like Canada’s, not the U.S.)

For example, when it gets bad and the government layoffs really hit hard, instead of waiting in the emergency department for 2 or 3 hours to see someone, think about waiting 1 or 2 days before anyone gets around to seeing you, that’s what I mean about it getting really bad.

The only booming sector then will be the bankruptcy companies, the repo companies, and the credit collection companies.

#150 DisgustMadeMePost on 03.07.15 at 12:05 am

UBC*. I think this is tragic. Canadian universities should be mandated to a certain percentage of offshores.

….

When I was UBC there WAS a cap on foreign students . The cap was lifted as the amount foreign students pay is more than Canadian students. Yes, it means more money to the Univ.

Now that my kids are Univ age, 2 at UBC, I am grateful that they are Metis kids! I’m sure that at least helped them get in! It was THE only time I ever allowed them to even marginally ride on those coat tails. But there was NO WAY they weren’t going to be accepted because they had to compete with money. And don’t try to tell me that they should compete with the best students of the world.

What number of those foreign students get the education and then take it out of Canada?? Uh huh… And we benefit how? A few extra bucks?

Foreign students get what they pay for. They enrich everyone, even your kids. An education is not exactly a non-renewable Canadian resource, so what are they ‘taking out’? And how did we all get so jingoistic? — Garth

#151 kommykim on 03.07.15 at 12:07 am

RE: #5 John Mc on 03.06.15 at 7:39 pm
Greg went out and counted 204 empty spots in the parkade????

Read the sign! LOL!

#152 Andrew Woburn on 03.07.15 at 12:19 am

#130 Flyswatter on 03.06.15 at 11:32 pm
Any chance of a major meltdown in Canada similar to the 1997 Asian crisis, which was also largely started by debt and then plunging currencies.
=================

My (imperfect) understanding of the Asian crisis is that it was triggered by a rapid rise in the USD rather than debt itself. Emerging market nations had pigged out on what was supposed to be cheap debt denominated in USD. When the dollar rose, the debt skyrocketed in terms of local currency and debtors defaulted in droves.

Of course those were the good old days when EM debts were measured in mere billions. Today there are EM debts denominated in USD of around $9 Trillion. The dollar index has moved from around 80 to nearly 100 and is still going up. The economic effect is similar to when the school bully used to wrench up your underwear.

The fundamental problem is owing in USD and earning in EM currencies. My guess is that few Canadian businesses will be caught in this particular squeeze since we earn USD by exporting there or by selling our rocks and trees for US dollars.

I would go with the frozen whale meat. Beaver pelts are so eighteenth century and also PETA won’t like it. Whale meat has that aboriginal artisinal cachet and its gluten free.

#153 Nemesis on 03.07.15 at 12:20 am

#WhatStageAreWeAt?… #TheWayBackMachineSays… #PonyUpTime…

http://youtu.be/7ztony5wRJw

[NoteToGT: It didn’t work then either… but that still won’t stop Rennie&Lamb, Poloz&Oliver et al from trying…]

#154 vb on 03.07.15 at 12:27 am

I can’t wait to buy my fauvorite REITS @ 10% yield again !! Today I was tempted…..Raise the rates, I’m ready.

#155 Obvious Truth on 03.07.15 at 12:32 am

#126

US markets are deep and diverse. The higher rate realization has caught many offside. Likely just cementing a rotation that has been happening for a while. One slanted towards growth. The winners in a growing economy.

But not everyone can spend time looking for this. And who knows for sure. The world can be a crazy place. That’s why balance and rebalance is important.

As an aside it seems everyone outside Alberta has noticed a divergence between TAN and IYE. And the pres labelled goopy sand as dirty. But it may not matter. Market could be saying the new marginal barrel is competitive right here. Nothing can beat the sun and the wind. They will work for bragging rights. Giggle at the Canadian peso. Daily planet even featured a solar powered plane flying around the world! Battery back up for night and 135km top speed.

Me thinks I know who is likely ordering one. The world wasn’t ready to lose another scifi icon.

What stage are we at? The beam me up part of the show.

#156 gladiator on 03.07.15 at 12:33 am

Forgive me Garth, for I have sinned: I allowed myself to rejoice at someone else’s trouble.
Today, a coworker I truly hate told me about buying a condo in the big smoke. I have never congratulated anyone so happily in my life. My smile was so genuine!

I feel ashamed now and need forgiveness…

#157 JSS on 03.07.15 at 12:37 am

Misleading picture Re. Calgary parking lot.

It’s Flex Day Friday!!!

Of course the parking lot is gonna be empty.

Suggest the same picture be taken on say Wednesday.

#158 a Girl Who Invests on 03.07.15 at 12:38 am

What are you’re thoughts on these TD portfolios? Are these a good investment for people who are retired?

https://www.tdassetmanagement.com/fundDetails.form?fundId=6403&lang=en

Why would you want 63% bonds when rates will soon start to normalize? — Garth
_________________________________________

Thanks. That’s what I said, too. My mom wanted to know what you’d say, since I rave about you to her all the time.

#159 Retired Boomer - WI on 03.07.15 at 12:43 am

My balanced portfolio reflected the market today, not a blood bath, just a bath. ha, ha.

These gyrations are a part of the investing game. The further afield I drift from broad market funds / ETF the more daily volatility I see. That would be expected as some of those could be classed as ‘sector bets.’ No shock there either.

What stage are we at – Garth asks?

Main stage, Act IV, scene two …..
U guess which of the Bard’s plays…

#160 kommykim on 03.07.15 at 1:00 am

RE: #98 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 03.06.15 at 10:06 pm
Housing Trends
So Much for Downsizing
Are Builders Building the Wrong Type of Home?

I hate this. When we were looking for a house all we could find were larger ones with suites. All the nice little places on large lots had either been bulldozed or subdivided off into micro lots and skinny houses. We ended up with a larger place than I wanted because that was the only thing in the area with a descent sized yard.

#161 kommykim on 03.07.15 at 1:04 am

RE: #108 Larry Laffer on 03.06.15 at 10:29 pm
A bit off- topic, but what’s been happening with canadian preferreds?

Read this:
http://www.cibcwg.com/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=823ffb68-e59e-45f0-817f-dcfc349fbdd6&groupId=92706

#162 Andrew Woburn on 03.07.15 at 1:12 am

I keep hearing that it is a sign of our economic malaise that we are losing manufacturing jobs. To me this just shows the change in technology. In the 19th century a huge proportion of Canadians were involved in agriculture. Now maybe 2% of the population produces it all. We have no difficulty understanding that this is progress and productivity, not economic failure. We are not saying we can get back to full employment by expanding agricultural jobs. Manufacturing is just going through the same process.

It’s the same thing with the “death of retail” theme. Retail only dies when people stop buying things. It doesn’t matter how they buy whether it’s online, at the mall or from a corner store.

#163 omg the original on 03.07.15 at 1:21 am

ONE PAGE OF HISTORY IS WORTH 10 VOLUMES OF ANALYSIS.

I’ll state this again for you poor DOOM AND GLOOM suckers.

Seriously do you truly believe the world is in such bad shapes as to send us back to the 1930s??

What an arrogant, short sighted, totally myopic view.

Consider the following small selection of world crisis that the world economy has muddled through and built from.

– World War 2 – at one point all of Europe, save for Great Britain, was lost to the Nazis

– how about the Cuban missile crisis – the US and USSR were on the brink of nuclear war

– how about the OPEC oil crisis

– or stagflation of the 1970s

– or the savings and loan crisis of the early 1990s – hundreds of billions went up into thin air

– what about the first Iraq war

– or dot com…….

– or 9-11

– how about the second Iraq war

Shit happens – get used to it. BUT world goes on and the world economy GROWS.

The best thing you DOOM AND GLOOMERs can do for yourselves is read some history and STOP THINKING your are living in the WORST OF TIMES.

#164 valleyrenter on 03.07.15 at 1:33 am

Peruse a contractor site as well as this tittilating blog. One theme that repeatedly comes up on said contractor site is guys turning down projects south of the 49 due to lack of employees. They can’t even hire them fast enough. Feel free to dig around the internet and see for yourselves.

#165 wallflower on 03.07.15 at 1:37 am

#147 DisgustMadeMePost on 03.07.15 at 12:05 am
UBC*. I think this is tragic. Canadian universities should be mandated to a certain percentage of offshores.

….

When I was UBC there WAS a cap on foreign students . The cap was lifted as the amount foreign students pay is more than Canadian students. Yes, it means more money to the Univ.
======
I think this topic is compelling. But not related to the blog topic; the only angle is the dropping currency which makes a Canadian education cheaper and cheaper to stronger currencies like the Yuan/Remnimbi — however I would like to add that my son’s closest new friends at UBC are offshores (Khazikstan and Mexican) and he is very comfortable with different cultures from playing soccer in the Ontario 905 belt for 12 years and going to a school of many cultures for high school. It’s all a good fit for him. However, UBC is a unique situation with the land source being what it is and I do think it has a special obligation to serve its citizen applicants first and foremost (most people do not even realize that it is RCMP officiated; not Vancouver police). It could be a leader for Canada in this regard and yet it looks like it is building out its offshore offers and accommodations. Too bad.
And, I sure hope my son meets your Metis kids. That would make the experience that much richer. (which reminds me of the other meaning of that word: Those Mexicans and Khazakstanis… holy cow, their families are uber wealthy, the kind of wealth that is impossible to amass in Canada… I guess that is the case with the Chinese buying land and houses in Vancouver. We simply cannot compete with these nations where wealth is so much easier to amass.)

#166 omg the original on 03.07.15 at 1:38 am

WHY WE LIVE IN THE BEST OF TIMES

1) The internet has made it possible for my kids to talk to other kids in a village in Africa – it has just begun to change how we communicate and do business around the world.

2) Nations like China, India and Mexico have a large and developing middle class. Good for the economy as well as humane rights in those countries. Great for the world.

3) The last 50 years has been the age of the computer chip. Information technology has developed faster and further than any credible source would have predicted. THE NEXT 50 YEARS WILL BE THE AGE OF BIOTECH – development of health care go off the charts. Baby born today may live to 150 years and might just have the option of living indefinitely (But you will need money to access the high tech health care – so invest instead of spending it on survivalist gear.)

4) Technological advances in alternative energy will greatly increase the economics of solar cells, wind power, nuclear energy and geothermal. Fossil fuels will become obsolete. The environment will thrive and global warming buffs will have to find a new cause to raise money for.

5) Advances in agriculture and the rising incomes of emerging countries will increase crop production by magnitudes. The only reason people will go hungry is political reasons, not a lack of productive capacity.

#167 DisgustMadeMePost on 03.07.15 at 2:15 am

Gahhhhhh! Keep losing what I type! Going to pass on the links …

It’s a spot. An opportunity not going to a qualified Canadian kid.

Not to mention there is a new foreign student only college that is being built at UBC. They will have to be wealthy to attend. This ‘College’ is not about enrichment as the students will be segregated. It’s all about the money at UBC. Just rubs me the wrong way.

Suffice to say, thanks for the reply Garth, but we’ll have to agree to disagree :)

#168 Millenial-falcon on 03.07.15 at 2:18 am

Foreign students get what they pay for. They enrich everyone, even your kids. An education is not exactly a non-renewable Canadian resource, so what are they ‘taking out’? And how did we all get so jingoistic? — Garth

Yah it’s all about the kids. Thas why ubc building a brand new campus for foreign students while they have a 5000 long wait list for campus housing. Enriched is right, the uni’s bank account

#169 liquidincalgary on 03.07.15 at 2:51 am

young & foolish on 03.06.15 at 10:25 pm

“For a long time, the Saudis were the price police of the oil market because they were the swing producers. They could quickly ramp significant amounts of production up and down.”

Now, even to someone who never wears a tin foil hat this sounds naive.

===============================================

agreed. check this link : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production

#170 Ponzif on 03.07.15 at 3:05 am

Foreign students get what they pay for. They enrich everyone, even your kids. An education is not exactly a non-renewable Canadian resource, so what are they ‘taking out’? And how did we all get so jingoistic? — Garth
——————-
Garth, just change “non-renewable to “limited capacity” and it all makes sense.
Jingoism has nothing to do with it.

#171 Musty Basement Dweller on 03.07.15 at 3:11 am

#135 Flyswatter on 03.06.15 at 11:32 pm
Garth,

Any chance of a major meltdown in Canada similar to the 1997 Asian crisis, which was also largely started by debt and then plunging currencies. In such a case, is it better to hoard gold, frozen whale blubber, or beaver pelts to survive the financial Armageddon.
============
Omg Frozen whale blubber eh.. Where does one get their hands on that? Must be a hell of a big freezer too LMFAO

#172 Leo Trollstoy on 03.07.15 at 3:36 am

Garth is without questions correct in his assumption to see a 2%+ increase over the next year. Don’t believe it? Well, what are you willing to bet? Hedge and hedge now while you still can.

Garth and The American are bang on.

Those who refuse to listen deserve what they get.

The Canadian dollar and gold will get smoked.

#173 charles on 03.07.15 at 3:38 am

Yeah she’s ready to roll. After seven years in the shed still got that bent hard tail but the knuckle head starts almost good in these temperatures. Got rid of the instruments, weren’t working anyway. Don’t know, don’t want to know. Headlight to. Got that lean look. Gave her a stress test in the living room last night and she’s all good. Strapped on the leathers and wow I’m swimming in’em but first time they get wet they’l tighten up. Alright were here, lets rock.

#174 Vanecdotal on 03.07.15 at 3:40 am

#30 Livingincrazyland

“In the last 60 days my 1950s bungalow has appreciated 250K.”

You have sold? Otherwise you haven’t made a penny until you cash in your chips. Paper “gains” are meaningless.

“If you assume this asset appreciates at 3% that’s $45K a year…”

A *very* risky assumption in a market currently COMPLETELY detached from fundamentals flying waaaay above the mean and almost entirely supported by speculators at this stage.

“Who the heck is going to buy this place next?”

You’ve answered your own question, if you can’t imagine who the next buyer would be to continue propelling prices upwards, perhaps now might be a good time to cash in your chips and crystallize your gain?

We are, right now, IN the blow-off top, irrational exuberance phase of the market. Watched the same pattern unfold in Los Angeles RE in 2006, I believe they completely bottomed in 2009, or 2010? The fall from grace was STAGGERING, and financially painful for many families. It was RE Only Goes Up! Until there was the first hint of fear selling, then it was a torrential selling, undercut thy neighbour, race for the exits. It is not different here, except that we are even more indebted than the Americans were when it came tumbling down.

2016 – 2017 here in YVR will be looking very different from today, imho.

#175 Mountain Man on 03.07.15 at 4:03 am

Breaking News:

“Seth Rogen, Steve Carrell and Judd Apatow working on a new film to be shot in Toronto in 2015 entitled:
The 40-Year-Old Property Virgin.”

#176 Nagraj on 03.07.15 at 4:41 am

#146 Waterloo Resident

Couldn’t agree more. (I live twenty minutes out from Waterloo – in the middle of nowhere.)
Ontario, with a population of about 13 million, sports about $300 billion in accumulated debt. The province is statistically the world’s biggest substate debtor. So far the ratings agencies have been exceedingly polite.
Cutbacks in gov’t spending in Ontario will be met with serious, politically destabilizing strikes.

On another topic: Stupidity as an explanation for the housing bubble – tells me nothing; and lets policymakers off the hook. As for anger following denial – there’s a world of difference between individual and collective anger.

Re the SPX: the stock mkt used to be a leading economic indicator, it’s devolved into a leading indicator of monetary policy.

#177 observer on 03.07.15 at 4:48 am

I believe we are close but won’t see things speed up until september.

Reason, if we see a us hike from the US, Canadian’s wont recognize what is going on until the wheels get rolling. Canadians just don’t understand financing and debt, and are way too “Me so Horny”.

By that time Alberta should be in full debt, bankruptcy and repo stage. They would of ran out of UI, no job to be found, because the rest of their coworkers are also looking and the biggest thing no money.

Canada will have problem raising money because no one will buy their bonds, due to better rates elsewhere and a continue slide in the Duck buck. Which will be ttrigger because no-one can figure out what poloz is trying to accomplish. Why chance it we can be another greece.

Just think just a few years ago we were at 135% debt ratio now we are at 162. Another drop in interest rates can get us up in the 180’s remember growth of debt is exponential, since we don’t have the ability to paydown what we owe because what we make is less that what we have to pay to reduce the debt. Therefore the debt will continue to grow

#178 nubbers on 03.07.15 at 6:54 am

Ah, the clue is in the picture. We’re at the ‘Wile E Coyote running in mid air, just as he realises he has gone off the edge of a cliff’ stage.

#179 Alberta is FINISHED on 03.07.15 at 7:59 am

#142 Sunkcore

Yes the lay offs that were announce a couple of months ago are starting to hit HARD! Many “home” owners in Alberta are on the brink of going bankrupt. I agree that housing prices sould crags at least 25-35% this year. Anyone who can read the writing on the wall will know Alberta is FINISHED.

#180 Alberta is FINISHED on 03.07.15 at 8:12 am

Alberta is FINISHED. I don’t know how more to explain it but the people there are facing a detroit style deterioration. Alberta will become a waste land. Not only is the oil sands the most expensive but also the dirtiest oil to produce. Alberta the world views you like environment terrorists. Alberta you are FINISHED.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/canadian-oil-extraction-is-extraordinarily-dirty-process-obama-says-1.2985655

#181 maxx on 03.07.15 at 8:32 am

“America got stupid, got whacked and seven years later has repaired.”

It appears that we have leaders who believe that if they keep this scheme going……just a little longer…….something magical will ignite and the bad, bad ‘ol economy will go away.

Then, this country will once again look all bright and shiny, just like back in 2012, when our leaders were engaging in the laying on of hands around the world, and looked like fiscal geniuses.

Quelle farce. They simply refuse to accept that, in order to heal this misery-making mess, there is a certain amount of medicine to be prescribed.

Tragic. Because the type of medicine that our economy will inevitably require will be of the palliative sort.

#182 down and out on 03.07.15 at 8:50 am

I can’t help but wonder why ask What stage we are in. Most are like the old deer caught in the headlights stage. ask Calgarians ,Southwestern Ontarian s .Yeah we saw it coming but most just stood there .Readers here are informed and alert, but the “Smoking-man’s” herd is ready to stampede but are trapped in debt canyon. Yikes

#183 Toronto realtor type on 03.07.15 at 9:09 am

But commissions will be great until we take the plunge :)

#184 Mork dead, Spock dead, Han Solo crashed, Kirk, where's Kirk...? on 03.07.15 at 9:13 am

(OK, Shatner called in, he’s at a charity event then on his way for a hair retransplantation)

So here we are on the edge of a real estate apocalypse, and all you can do is reference Wile E Coyote?

What’s up with that, Garth? Where are the greater cultural touchstone metaphors all us lonely basement dwellers share?

Sh&t!! I forgot about ALF!!

ALF! Where are you? Are you okay? We need your help here in Canada, ALF!!

Come in Melmac, come in ……….

#185 james on 03.07.15 at 9:20 am

It does appear we are at the peak bubble moment. Buying now thinking a house will go up is just irrational.

And the feds will keep beating the terrorism drum to distract us from the economy.

Ugly times are ahead.

#186 Mark in Guelph on 03.07.15 at 9:43 am

#159 Andrew Woburn-It’s a false analogy to compare the loss of manufacturing today to the reduction in labour allocated to agriculture over time. There are clearly scientific and mechanical innovations that largely account for fewer workers on the farm. Making shoes and shirts is the same today as in the 1960’s except we let others do it. No great advances, just cheaper labour elsewhere.

When workers left the farm they went to the factory. Where do workers who leave the factory go? We can’t all tend bar and sell houses. A healthy economy makes things, it’s why Germany has to subsidize Greece.

#187 Mark in Guelph on 03.07.15 at 9:58 am

Andrew Woburn-“I keep hearing that it is a sign of our economic malaise that we are losing manufacturing jobs. To me this just shows the change in technology.”

What change in technology has occurred in manufacturing textiles, shoes, light fixtures, electronics, appliances, etc over the past 30 years? Few really. We just found someone to do it cheaper elsewhere.

It was science and technology that changed the farm. Those farm hands went to the factory to add value and be more productive. That’s positive for an economy. Leaving the factory to tend bar and sell houses is less so.

A healthy economy makes things, it’s why the Germans support the Greeks.

#188 NewToETFs on 03.07.15 at 10:04 am

I was offerred an “investment deal” last week, to purchase a house from a flipper, who would be a joint interest 50% partner. The flipper would buy a foreclosed crappy house for cheap, renovate, then “sell” the home at FMV to the investor (approx $330k). The investor would have to qualify to purchase the home, contribute $60k towards the down payment, and would be on title. The Joint Venture agreement would be on title too. In return, over a 5 year period, the main floor and basement suite would be rented out. The investor would get $4k per year regardless of rent incomes. If maintenance over $1,200 per year is required, the investor would pay 50%. At the end of 5 years, the investor would get back the initial down payment, and 50% of the increase in the increased value of the house. This was touted to return 16% to the investor. Oh, the house is in Leduc.

#189 Mister Obvious on 03.07.15 at 10:27 am

#182 NewToETFs

Thanks for that anecdote. It’s the very definition of ‘screwball’. You jumped in with both feet, I presume?

#190 John on 03.07.15 at 10:35 am

In Feb 2007 (before the Lehman moment) US Non-farm payroll was 137.5M with 4.5% unemployment. In Feb 2015 (after trillions in pixel booster life-support injections) US Non-farm payroll was 139.5M with 5.5% unemployment.

Full/part timers: “The Labor Department has been collecting this since 1968, a time when only 13.5% of US employees were part-timers. That number peaked at 20.1% in January 2010. The latest data point, five years later, is only modestly lower at 18.5% last month. If the pre-recession percentage is a recovery target, we’re only about half-way there.”
Wowie, bring out the champagne and top up Bandit’s kibble. No matter, Janet Y (J-Y)is going to raise rates and pull the punch bowl even with her no trump bridge hand. It’s called a finesse!
For Poloz and his merry band of poodles.. they get an ipso-facto rate cut just by standing still and letting the big J-Y pump. Even if Poloz does nothing, the even weaker Loonie will buy much less of anything coming into Cowtown, Hogtown, Vantown and depressed town.

Picture this: You go ALL in on a 1000 sq ft. rat hole in Toronto or Van; and you get to roll out the sleeping bags in the bedrooms, set up the camp stools in the living room, toast wienies in the backyard chiminea and chow down in the kitchen around the plastic table/chair set. It’s a Wylie homecoming event.

It’s all a gigantic farcical theatre. Shakespeare would have a blast scripting this as his next blockbuster.

#191 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.15 at 10:42 am

@#147 Disgust……
Well there are many different reasons for “foreign students” paying higher (almost double what canadian students pay) tuition fees.
A friends daughter went to Uvic and all her friends were kids from South America. They were definitely upper middle class students. All very smart, all very studious, all very polite…unlike most Canadian students.
Their parents paid their tuiton, lodgings food, etc. because it was cheaper than paying for 24 hr security teams to protect them from kidnappings………..
Just be glad your kids were lucky enough to grow up here.

#192 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.15 at 10:44 am

@#182 newtoETF
Leduc ? Bwahahahahahahahahahaha.
Good luck with THAT “investment”.
Wait a year, the “investment” will be 20% less in value and dropping………

#193 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.15 at 10:49 am

@#177 Alberta is Finito

A tad extreme arent we? Alberta is finished? Please.
Drama queen.
The economy may get hammered for a year or two, the “greaterfools” who believed the “housing rises forever” bs will get slapped. But.
The oil is still there, crops still grow, beef, pork, poultry still gets sold. The vultures will circle and snap up cheap housing and rent it to the “fools”.
Just like the early 1980’s……..and on it goes.

#194 Larry Laffer on 03.07.15 at 10:52 am

#128
You buy preferreds for a tax-advantaged yield. Worrying about short-term capital fluctuations is the sign of an amateur investor. — Garth

#140 AACI Home Dog
“Ride the long run, you will be ok…relax..it’s the weekend…”

Sure I’m in for the long haul. I wasn’t thinking about dumping them, actually, I might buy some more. I was just surprised, that’s all.

#158 kommykim – That link was most informative. Thanks!

#195 SWL1976 on 03.07.15 at 11:11 am

#160 omg the original

The best thing you DOOM AND GLOOMERs can do for yourselves is read some history and STOP THINKING your are living in the WORST OF TIMES.

—————————————————

I will field this one because I’m pretty sure it’s safe to say many people here would consider me a ‘DOOMER’

As far as reading history, get a grip.

Of all the people I know who are considered ‘doomers’ the majority of them are very pleasant and rational people. I myself am usually always found with a smile on my face, laughing and joking about things. I can’t speak for all, but I know myself just because I can clearly see where things are going and what is happening with the breakdown of society, that doesn’t make me any less fun. That being said I don’t disagree that we are indeed living in the best of times, but if we blindly just ignore the warnings of what is on the horizon, then these ‘best of times’ might just end sooner than you think.

I don’t think it is asking too much to expect more rather than expect less these days, and this one I have had trouble getting my head around. See I used to get very frustrated with people’s lack of caring and ownership for their actions, and sometimes I even revert to my saying to help me cope. “If no one else cares why should I” Regardless I do still care, but that helps me in times of frustration.

Now back to us ‘doomers’ one thing I do like about us is we can have a rational conversation about the reality of the situation without resorting to anger or name calling. See opening your eyes might just increase your inner joy as you realize that not one day should be taken for granted and to enjoy what you have now right down to the simplest of things.

Life is grand, and while I don’t agree with the direction we are going but… I will not let that spoil the ride

And as far as people living 150 years… One might want to consider their food and water supply with this incessantly increasing global pollution we face

#196 John on 03.07.15 at 11:19 am

Maybe, it doesn’t matter if we’re all-in on “balanced portfolios”, playing the investment game leveraged up the wa-zoo, or drowning in mortgage pain. Maybe it doesn’t matter if Janet Y blathers or Poloz drools, we’re all toasted wieners because this stuff is being pumped out of 31 47 N 35 1 E, as we read:
“Iran general and 10,000 troops, within six miles of Israeli border”
“Iran is taking over the reins in Syria,” said Ziv … “In fact, no military decision [in Syria] is made without [the Iranian Revolutionary Guard].” He described (Syrian President) Assad as “a puppet looking out at his lost land.”
“This dangerous development may lead to a fast-spreading regional war in the Middle East. An Iranian blitzkrieg against the Golan Heights would trigger Israeli defenses in depth in Syria. Iran could potentially bring more than 100,000 Basiji into the battle, as well as IRGC troops. If Israel is directly threatened, it may well resort to UNCONVENTIONAL WEAPONS, and even launch a counter-attack against Iran itself. In previous wars Israel has counter-attacked into Syria and Egypt.”

Don’t cut-and-paste that Tea Party crap here. Now we all need a shower. — Garth

#197 Obvious Truth on 03.07.15 at 11:26 am

#164. Omg the original mark twain. Nice work.

#198 westcanguy on 03.07.15 at 11:50 am

#177 Alberta is FINISHED on 03.07.15 at 8:12 am

” Alberta is FINISHED. I don’t know how more to explain it but the people there are facing a detroit style deterioration. Alberta will become a waste land. ”

______________________________________________

Tell us how you really feel. Do you think Alberta is FINISHED?

#199 Daisy Mae on 03.07.15 at 11:50 am

“….people borrow second mortgages in the 12% range just so they can raise the 20% downpayment needed to buy $1-million-plus homes with $800,000 mortgages at 3%.”

********************

And, aren’t they in for a surprise when property taxes on these million dollar houses come due? How do they furnish these large houses — are they sitting on apple boxes? bed sheets for curtains? — and how do they keep up with utilities?

#200 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 03.07.15 at 12:03 pm

A few here have alluded to the market being at a peak. What evidence could you provide to back that assumption?

#201 Barry in Pickering on 03.07.15 at 12:09 pm

As I recall, this “buy US, sell Canada” call was about selling and buying **houses**, not **stocks**.

Over the period ( the last 2 years), US house prices are indeed up 16% (case-Schiller) so it was correct to “buy US”. But Canada house prices were up 9% (Teranet) so the “sell Canada” part of the call that you made was incorrect.

The correct call would have been “buy US, buy Canada”

When I first suggested it the dollar was at par and US house prices were down 26%. Equities were likewise on sale. Guess you missed it. — Garth

#202 Daisy Mae on 03.07.15 at 12:11 pm

While the BC government pats itself on the back with their revenue ‘surplus’…..basic personal exemption for 2012 was $11,354. In 2013, it was reduced to $10,276. And for 2014, our basic personal exemption is $9,869. Notice a trend?

#203 Marco on 03.07.15 at 12:16 pm

For 7 years or so we have been looking down at our neighbour to the south. Thinking that what happened there could never happen here. Feeling superior. Did we learn anything. No, we just let our faith be with financial institutions and the rogue real estate industry as well as our Government who thought they could steer us clear of the reef with their monetary policies.
America doesn’t even want our dirty oil right now. Now it seems we are nearing an American Schadenfreude stage.

#204 Smoked Squirrel Meat on 03.07.15 at 12:24 pm

Big $$

http://vantagecollege.ubc.ca/key-facts

#205 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 03.07.15 at 12:26 pm

Paid over $10000, $2000 for the lot. But it seemed like a no brainer. Any takers?

http://longisland.craigslist.org/tag/4912433658.html

#206 Karma on 03.07.15 at 12:28 pm

#105 Larry Laffer on 03.06.15 at 10:29 pm
“A bit off- topic, but what’s been happening with canadian preferreds? HPR is down nearly 5 percent and CPD isn’t doing any better. Only XPF got along not too badly. Seems to me that this drop in interest rate should have made preferepreferreds and REITs more attractive. What am I missing?”

#128 Karma on 03.06.15 at 11:18 pm

“Are you assuming preferreds would be appreciating in this (albeit short) environment?”
————————————————————-
“You buy preferreds for a tax-advantaged yield. Worrying about short-term capital fluctuations is the sign of an amateur investor. — Garth”

————————————————————-

Garth, he’s assuming a “drop” in the BoC rate would have an impact on preferred. My response was to point out that since a week after the drop in interest rate by BoC, bond yields have been rising, which is more important in the valuation of preferreds. Thus, the small fluctuations he has quoted might be answered by acknowledging what bond yields have done, rather than consider the impact of a BoC rate cute.

Furthermore, he mentioned XPF, which is “North Americans” rather than just Canadian, so I pointed out the large increase in UST yields over the same time period.

PS: I also wanted other blog dogs to see how much yields have risen in this short period…

#207 Smoked Squirrel Meat on 03.07.15 at 12:39 pm

More exploding oil trains… pipelines might be a good idea.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/News/canada/train+with+crude+derails+northern+Ontario+fire+site/10870878/story.html

#208 Mark on 03.07.15 at 12:44 pm

“It’s a spot. An opportunity not going to a qualified Canadian kid. “

Woah! I was nearly banned from this blog for a comment that merely was a suggestion along the same lines.

#209 Ret on 03.07.15 at 12:45 pm

Universities are businesses masquerading as public institutions. More students = more money. All will be accepted. Quality be dammed, just pack’em in!

Just as CMHC backstops mortgages, the Canada Student Loan program backstops loans to students in university, college and some private institutions. Defaults run 10-20% on loans which can be maxed out at $60,000.

Students jump from program to program in an effort to get any kind of job skill. With each new course comes more debt. Six months after graduation, loan payback has to be negotiated and started.

Kathleen Wynne has a 30% tuition credit for students courtesy of Ontario taxpayers. I guess that this province is buck up after all!

https://www.ontario.ca/education-and-training/30-off-ontario-tuition

Universities pay no property taxes. No business taxes are paid on businesses that operate on the campus.

University workers are heavily unionized. Many are surprised that the CAW runs nearly all of McMaster’s unions. Many instructors and professors are unionized or get compensation packages that match or exceed what the organized workers get at their institution.

As every university has to pay unionized staff, salaries have skyrocketed as have the student tuitions and supplemental fees to pay for those salaries. Students graduate either heavily in debt for years to come or with parents who have spent their retirement savings.

I’m afraid the post secondary education has turned out to be a fiasco like every other file that governments decide to micro-manage for political gain.

#210 Smoked Squirrel Meat on 03.07.15 at 12:49 pm

Green energy…ain’t ready for prime time.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/northern-ontario-town-sees-ambitious-green-energy-plans-fall-apart/article23347503/

#211 Smoked Squirrel Meat on 03.07.15 at 12:52 pm

Flex friday all the way… picture is misleading… ski day…. stampede time will be way more telling

#212 TurnerNation on 03.07.15 at 12:57 pm

We’ve entered a new age of Corporate, Political and Social psychopathy.
Accordingly, govern yourself.
All that’s gilded is not gold.

#213 Chaddywack on 03.07.15 at 1:06 pm

Correct me if I’m wrong, but let’s say the US increases rates approx 2% over a period of time lets say the next 18 months or so Canada is basically “forced” to follow suit to at least some degree?

#214 liquidincalgary on 03.07.15 at 1:14 pm

Paid over $10000, $2000 for the lot. But it seemed like a no brainer. Any takers?

================================================

notice the ad was placed by someone named ‘mark’?

#215 Alberta is AWESOME on 03.07.15 at 1:15 pm

We have the world’s best jerky.. delicious stuff.

http://www.longviewjerkyshop.com/

#216 Panhead on 03.07.15 at 1:34 pm

#168 Musty Basement Dweller on 03.07.15 at 3:11 am Omg Frozen whale blubber eh.. Where does one get their hands on that? Must be a hell of a big freezer too LMFAO
—————————————————-
Try Japan. Saw a show on the Japanese whaling industry (that they are not supposed to have) and seems they now have a 2 year frozen supply of the stuff as no one wants to eat it anymore. They have resorted to feeding it to school kids to get rid of it. Sad really …

#217 Wildnutter on 03.07.15 at 1:45 pm

No gold even for mad max in 3D.

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/03/06/unless-youre-mad-max-in-armageddon-gold-isnt-an-investment/

#218 H on 03.07.15 at 2:06 pm

Where people are getting it wrong on oil is simple analysis of the past and now.

For example, there is a news flash of “Oil Inventory at the Highest Level in 80 Years”

Wow..eye catching. But how does this line up to the fact we use THREE times the amount of oil we did every 24 hours vs 40 years ago? Its headlines like these that sell adds but common sense says otherwise.

Here is another one to consider.

In 2008 the end we had the biggest financial melt down since the 30s. Capital was CUT OFF. Demand for oil was 81 million barrels a day. In reaction to this crisis OPEC cut supply by 3 million barrels a day between October 2008 and March 2009. CUT. Meaning this is oil waiting to hit the markets. In addition there was over 100 million barrels of oil floating in storage. On the water. The backdrop was a millions of jobs being lost, zero credit, and foreclosers at biblical proportion.

Oil dropped to $37 a barrel.

Today, by contrast, USA is out of recession and about to raise rates to cool growth. Oil is being pumped MAX out. Demand every 24 hours is 90 million barrels a day. there is currently less than 30 million barrels in storage in the ocean.

Rig counts plunged 40% in the last 12 weeks and oil is nearly the same price as the previous crisis.

There is no “shut off” capacity. And the only thing the news is fucused on is a location on Oklahoma on the oil gage.

Right now there are more SUVs being bought than in pre 2008 and there are 12 refineries that are not even close to running full out. To add, fuel inventory is dropping.

What does all this mean? It means a whole whack of smart people are about to make some serious money, and the rest will just stand and watch.

#219 Nemesis on 03.07.15 at 2:07 pm

“ALF! Where are you? Are you okay? We need your help here in Canada, ALF!!”…

He’s just a few parsecs away, Where’sKirk…

http://www.atlasoftheuniverse.com/50lys.html

He just wanted to catch one of Fred’s earlier broadcasts…

[TimesColonist] – Longtime Vancouver radio host Fred Latremouille dies at age 69

http://www.timescolonist.com/longtime-vancouver-radio-host-fred-latremouille-dies-at-age-69-1.1783597

#220 Leo Trollstoy on 03.07.15 at 2:08 pm

orrect me if I’m wrong, but let’s say the US increases rates approx 2% over a period of time lets say the next 18 months or so Canada is basically “forced” to follow suit to at least some degree?

Unlikely that the BoC will choose to deliberately destroy the Canadian economy just to protect the Canadian dollar.

An equal argument is that we are destroying the economy with rates so low people cannot help indenturing their futures. — Garth

#221 Pigeon king of Ontario on 03.07.15 at 2:27 pm

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/05/magazine/the-pigeon-king-and-the-ponzi-scheme-that-shook-canada.html?smid=nytcore-iphone-share&smprod=nytcore-iphone

#222 DisgustMadeMePost on 03.07.15 at 2:31 pm

#208 Mark on 03.07.15 at 12:44 pm
“It’s a spot. An opportunity not going to a qualified Canadian kid. “

Woah! I was nearly banned from this blog for a comment that merely was a suggestion along the same lines.

….

What?

Canadian kids are exactly that. Canadian. As opposed to International (read non-Canadian). I’m talking about their status within this country, not their race.

In 2000, the proportion of students at UBC was 93% -7% domestic (Canadian) to international respectively. In 2012 the numbers were 83 – 17 %.

If it wasn’t such a pain typing on this thing I’d provide links but I don’t care enough to try again!

My point was that there is a drive to go after money. In the US, some state schools limit enrollment to certain post grad programs to ‘out of state’ individuals only. It’s the money.

You, on the other hand came across as attacking a Canadian kid of a specific race. No doubt not your intention. I get that it was probably a traumatizing event but stop bringing race up at every turn.

Twain out!

#223 Andrew Woburn on 03.07.15 at 2:32 pm

186 Mark in Guelph on 03.07.15 at 9:43 am
#159 Andrew Woburn-It’s a false analogy to compare the loss of manufacturing today to the reduction in labour allocated to agriculture over time. There are clearly scientific and mechanical innovations that largely account for fewer workers on the farm. Making shoes and shirts is the same today as in the 1960’s except we let others do it. No great advances, just cheaper labour elsewhere.

When workers left the farm they went to the factory. Where do workers who leave the factory go? We can’t all tend bar and sell houses. A healthy economy makes things, it’s why Germany has to subsidize Greece.
========================

– There are clearly scientific and mechanical innovations that largely account for fewer workers on the farm.

I recently visited a sawmill that used to employ 200 people. Now 30 produce as much or more lumber. It’s called automation.

– No great advances, just cheaper labour elsewhere.

The advantages of cheaper offshore labour are declining. Globalization will see wage rates for similar skills converge around the world and automation is already resulting in ‘reshoring’ of manufacturing with a greatly reduced labour component.

– A healthy economy makes things, it’s why Germany has to subsidize Greece.

A healthy economy eats as well as makes things, it just needs less people with more skills to do either. Countries also thrive on providing valuable services as does the UK.

– We can’t all tend bar and sell houses

If I sound like I’m thrilled about the impact of automation on Canadian jobs, no, I’m not. I’m just saying it is happening whatever we do. I see it as the biggest political problem of this century. We could be looking at a new age of prosperity for all or a new age of serfdom for many. Unfortunately history suggests that those with the guns take the money.

We’ve been here before. In Rome citizens were rendered essentially unemployable by a flood of slave labour. They were bribed into quiescence with bread and circuses. It didn’t end well.

#224 DisgustMadeMePost on 03.07.15 at 2:36 pm

So why wouldn’t I convert everything to US even now seeing the directions the loonie and the greenback are going?

#225 BS on 03.07.15 at 2:38 pm

It appears that we have leaders who believe that if they keep this scheme going……just a little longer…….something magical will ignite and the bad, bad ‘ol economy will go away.

The leaders know at some point things will blow up. There is a federal election coming up and now is not the time in the eyes of Harper for it to blow up. He will do what he can to keep it going at least to the end of the year.

Unfortunately, as the US Republicans learned when they were in power last at some point the bubble pops and you can’t always control it. If you recall theirs popped within weeks of the US election. That may have been the difference in Obama taking power in his first term. This is something the Conservatives want to avoid at all costs.

Expect more irrational policy until the election. After the election I wouldn’t be surprised to see tightening to CMHC to try to unwind this thing. Who ever is in power will know there is no way there can be 4 more years of expanding debt at the current rate. Better for bad things to happen at the start of the term than the end.

#226 coastal on 03.07.15 at 2:42 pm

Nothing to worry about the Asian effect in Vancouver real estate folks, just move along now. Gregor and Christy need the income after all. I can imagine this is only a very minor part of the story.

http://www.theprovince.com/business/Chinese+police+secret+operations+hunt+allegedly+corrupt/10861987/story.html

#227 Obvious Truth on 03.07.15 at 2:49 pm

#220 Leo

Correct me if I’m wrong, but let’s say the US increases rates approx 2% over a period of time lets say the next 18 months or so Canada is basically “forced” to follow suit to at least some degree?

Unlikely that the BoC will choose to deliberately destroy the Canadian economy just to protect the Canadian dollar.

An equal argument is that we are destroying the economy with rates so low people cannot help indenturing their futures. — Garth

————————————

Thus the seriousness of the problem. This is a policy issue which needs to be solved by policy makers. Boc is powerless here. And we know how they responded.

#228 Sue on 03.07.15 at 2:49 pm

#199 rosie “moving forward” in the knowledge that, “this won’t end well” on 03.07.15 at 12:26 pm

Asking $2000 for investment-grade stuffed animals that cost $10K? I guess that means someone’s used up $8000 of the fun they contain just, sort of, having them?

#229 kommykim on 03.07.15 at 2:50 pm

RE: #196 Daisy Mae on 03.07.15 at 12:11 pm
While the BC government pats itself on the back with their revenue ‘surplus’…..basic personal exemption for 2012 was $11,354. In 2013, it was reduced to $10,276. And for 2014, our basic personal exemption is $9,869. Notice a trend?

Yup. Also notice that BC medical premiums, which are really a tax, have increased over that period too. Time to crush crispy Christy and cohorts.

#230 Kris on 03.07.15 at 2:51 pm

Are we back to predicting rate raises again, Garth? The theory hinges on a couple of IFs, big IFs.

1. The US may raise rates, but will it be meaningful and sustained over a few years? Who knows.

2. Even if the US raises rates, why is Canada compelled to follow? Nobody has explained (convincingly) why an 0.75-0.8 US$ exchange rate is so unthinkable – If anything, it helps our export-based economy. The alternative, raising rates, will surely cause a lot of pain to “Main St” Canada – But the govt is compelled to go this route? Why?

#231 BS on 03.07.15 at 2:57 pm

What change in technology has occurred in manufacturing textiles, shoes, light fixtures, electronics, appliances, etc over the past 30 years? Few really. We just found someone to do it cheaper elsewhere.

Partially true. It is due to labour costs these jobs are exported. There have, however, been many changes to manufacturing which greatly reduces labour and increases productivity. There will be more to come. Especially as labour costs increase in places like China. For example in 20 years shoes and many other items may be made with a 3D printer involving very little labour. At some point even building houses will be automated or at least modular where they are not built on site with local labour.

#232 ILoveCharts on 03.07.15 at 3:09 pm

“You are truly obsessed. Sad. — Garth”

Well…. I’m not yet at the stage of blogging – but I might get there ;)

I still think you should visit our coast for a week or two and blog from Vancouver. It’s motorbike weather over here.

#233 Rob on 03.07.15 at 3:11 pm

Guys you do realise that most people are locked into 5 year mortgages? So even if rates start to inch up ( i think they will be low Japanese style for years). Most households have 2 working people so they might be able to hold on. I agree that things are crazy in the real estate market but these are crazy times. People feel safe with real estate. In the last 30 years I’ve seen the stock market drop 10 to 30% in a couple of days. When and if that happens again I’m pretty sure most investors will cave in. In the mean time someone who has a house will just keep enjoying his home and won’t even feel the stock mkt drop. I notice how on this blog no one ever mentions that the gain on a house is tax free. Much better than bonds, reits and preferred shares.

#234 Fed-up on 03.07.15 at 3:21 pm

http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2014/06/27/why-vancouver-housing-is-unaffordable-and-what-to-do-about-it/

Yeeesh, even Canadians of Asian heritage are getting nasty about the cost of housing and who’s to blame on the “Wet Coast”

#235 Daisy Mae on 03.07.15 at 3:24 pm

#149 Waterloo: “…..instead of waiting in the emergency department for 2 or 3 hours to see someone….”

**********************

If you are a true emergency, you will be attended to quickly. If you arrive with a cut finger or a skinned knee, you’ll sit all day — you’re not an ’emergency’. It’s best to use Walk-Ins. That’s what they’re for.

#236 Calgary Mike on 03.07.15 at 3:48 pm

I sometimes drive to work in downtown Calgary and I noticed to that it is less busy than it used to be 6 months ago. My wife contracts at Cenovus and the vibe is pretty bleak. People are working and not knowing if they’ll still have a contract or a job for the next pay period. No Stampede party this year either… :(

#237 Bollinger RSI on 03.07.15 at 4:05 pm

# Smoking Man

For what it’s worth, tomorrow, when Im sobar, I write out my institutions here, i may put up a few illustrations on my blog, then F with you all and post it in Greek. Lol.

But you need to promise me a few things.
First you open a demo account and practice for two years, so when you transition to real money, it’s intuitive, no emotions, no thinking it’s money. no matter how much success you have in your demo account. Wait two years.

Second, you all know I’m writing a crazy ass Fiction book. It’s written, need get sobar long enough to Polish it. When I do.

I need all of you to buy it on the same day, push it up to a best seller. Hopefully it takes off, you will need to lie your asses of on the reviews, best book evet written.

Nothing will trill me more that a shit load of teacher spending 5 bucks and throwing up reading the crapiest book ever written.

That’s it.. O and no one over 35 try and trade forex, you won’t have enough time to recover your loses.

If your over 35, find an advisor… I would suggest the bearded basterd, but then he might think I got some kind of man crush on him. Be uncomfortable if I ever meet him again.

——–

It’s a deal, then, Smoking Man…

#238 BS on 03.07.15 at 4:20 pm

222

In 2000, the proportion of students at UBC was 93% -7% domestic (Canadian) to international respectively. In 2012 the numbers were 83 – 17 %.

In 2000 there were 32,917 domestic students at UBC Vancouver. In 2012 there were 40,802 domestic students. That is a 24% increase in domestic students over 12 years. Since domestic students are subsidized through tax payers where foreign student are profitable it is the increase in foreign students that allowed the increase in domestic students. The other options would be not expand domestic student population, raise tuition for domestic students or increase taxes for locals. I think I prefer the increasing foreign students to pay for the increased domestic students.

http://www.pair.ubc.ca/enrolment%20reports/2012%20International%20Enrolment%20Report.pdf

#239 BS on 03.07.15 at 4:27 pm

233

Guys you do realise that most people are locked into 5 year mortgages? So even if rates start to inch up ( i think they will be low Japanese style for years). Most households have 2 working people so they might be able to hold on.

Correct the people who already own houses for the most part will be able to hold on. But, it is the people who are buying houses that set the price. The rate increase will affect the people buying the houses which is what matters.

#240 kommykim on 03.07.15 at 4:28 pm

RE: #230 Kris on 03.07.15 at 2:51 pm
2. Even if the US raises rates, why is Canada compelled to follow?

Because no one will buy Canada’s government bonds when they can buy US government bonds with a better yield.

#241 4 AM Sunrise on 03.07.15 at 5:47 pm

#130 wallflower on 03.06.15 at 11:11 pm

I’m many years removed from university so I ask: isn’t admission to UBC based on grades alone? As a tutor, my job is to get bright kids with 91% averages up to 97%…because thanks to grade inflation, I hear the minimum is 95% for science? I got into Science with 86%; no way was I super-genius enough to pull off 97%.

As for your son’s experiences with his Mainlander roommate: I’m not surprised. From what I’ve seen (I’m Canadian of Chinese descent), most of these kids have mixed feelings about coming here. They don’t have the same pioneering spirit my parents had in the 70’s. They didn’t have to dodge any bullets or wars on the way here. And they certainly didn’t have the same motivations as my German-born Can. Lit. prof who loved David Suzuki’s writings so much that it just made sense to immigrate. Chances are, the decision to go abroad was made by their parents. They’re homesick. Your son’s roommate sounds like he’s simply not interested in getting to know the locals. And maybe he has strict parents breathing down his neck about studying to be a doctor.

And yes, Facebook is blocked in China. They have their own – I think it’s called “Weibo”.

And while I’m here I’ll say a few things about income inequality. Canada is egalitarian in that the “poor” people aren’t overly poor, and the rich aren’t overly rich (save a few exceptions). I’ve seen poor people in China who can out-poor anybody here. It’s easy to turn into a hater – I feel the green monster in me! – when many of our immigrants are from the top half of the hourglass of income inequality. For all the free money that was thrown at real estate here, the size and velocity of our bubble does not compare to the run-up in China. But we are lucky. Remember the last time you took a walk in the neighbourhood park? Maybe you walked the dog? In China, only seniors and children go to neighbourhood parks because it’s free admission for them. The rest of us pay CAD $1 to $3.

#242 John on 03.07.15 at 6:02 pm

Actually heard this today outside a new condo building (Dundas/Ossintgon) having a preview of purchased units. : “I like it, It’s like a baby I was going to give up for adoption, but now I want to keep it.”

#243 Smoked Squirrel Meat on 03.07.15 at 6:05 pm

Long positions in gold n guns

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/investor-bets-canadian-housing-is-a-bubble-set-to-burst/article23339743/comments/

#244 straight up on 03.07.15 at 6:25 pm

Because no one will buy Canada’s government bonds when they can buy US government bonds with a better yield.
___________________________________

interesting.
what rate of interest do German and Japanese bonds yield?

#245 Arch Douche Ferdinand on 03.07.15 at 6:39 pm

If the U.S. raises rates are sure to increase from .25% to 2% in a year or so, what part of a balanced portfolio benefits?

It would seem to me that if interest rates on T-bills increase, then the present value of the future cash flows from these T-bills must commensurately decrease. If the PV of the T-bills decrease, then the PV of the risk assets in a portfolio must also decrease.

So if you were going to make more contributions to a portfolio this year is it better to wait until after June or has the market already priced all of this in?

#246 Rob on 03.07.15 at 6:46 pm

#239 BS
Correct the people who already own houses for the most part will be able to hold on. But, it is the people who are buying houses that set the price. The rate increase will affect the people buying the houses which is what matters.

What are you talking about? So what if the rates go up a quarter of a point? Are you thinking? the rates will still be historically so very low. You think houses are stocks and people panic on a quarter point increase? Too many on this blog really want real estate too drop that they are grasping at straws. I think real estate has gone crazy and I agree with Garth but too be fair he has been calling for a drop for a long time. The correction will occur one of these days but when it happens people on this blog will be too scared to buy anyway.

There is a drop already in almost all markets, save two. Try not to be provincial. — Garth

#247 Broke Dick on 03.07.15 at 7:15 pm

#241 4 AM Sunrise on 03.07.15 at 5:47 pm

Remember the last time you took a walk in the neighbourhood park? Maybe you walked the dog? In China, only seniors and children go to neighbourhood parks because it’s free admission for them. The rest of us pay CAD $1 to $3.

_______________________________________

Wow. Paying to get into a park!!
Just an observation. Not a racist, only racist towards idiots.
Go to High park in Toronto during the non winter months.
There are so many people of chinese descent, it seems that they are about half the people I see there or more.
This also falls in line with another comment, I beleive you made, that stay at home chinese kidults are expected to find free fun activities.
Like swinging on a swing, oh to be young again.

#248 Smoked Squirrel Meat on 03.07.15 at 7:21 pm

From the master.

https://postmediamontrealgazette2.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/aislinweb-030715ca.jpg?w=533

#249 Vanecdotal on 03.07.15 at 7:29 pm

#234 Fed-up

Thanks for sharing that link, that’s one of the most rationally-presented, thoughtful articles I’ve read on the subject. It reflects the thoughts of many local YVR residents (of varied ethnic backgrounds and earning local incomes – as the article points out race is irrelevant as it should be), and is not inflammatory.

Am eagerly anticipating the release of the foreign ownership data City of Van began “officially” tracking in 2014. Hopefully it will not be “massaged” by special interests (development/RE lobby) prior to public release. Then we can all have a reasonable grown-up discussion about what policy changes may be needed to ensure housing affordability for Cdn. residents moving forward.

#250 kommykim on 03.07.15 at 7:29 pm

RE: #244 straight up on 03.07.15 at 6:25 pm
Because no one will buy Canada’s government bonds when they can buy US government bonds with a better yield.
interesting.
what rate of interest do German and Japanese bonds yield?

Virtually nothing depending on term.

German government bonds are an insurance against the break-up of the euro. If a German government bond was converted into “new” Deutschmarks it would increase in value if the Germans leave the Euro.

As for Japan, they are doing the Abenomic QE thing. Buying their own bonds. The BOJ owns over 20% of all government bonds. Who else, in their right mind, would buy the new issues?

But Canada has none of these issues. Our currency is not rising, so no money is to be made on a long forex play. Unless we do QE, the markets will determine the interest rate of the new issues.

#251 Smoked Squirrel Meat on 03.07.15 at 7:33 pm

Ouch, nice one. Oilberta’s saved wealth fund is less than Iraq’s and just ahead of East Timor!!

http://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/priaro-albertans-must-look-in-the-mirror-but-not-in-the-way-prentice-intended

#252 Calgary Car Guy on 03.07.15 at 7:41 pm

DELETED (sexual vulgarity)

#253 Oil Is Sticky on 03.07.15 at 7:42 pm

#234 Fed-up on 03.07.15 at 3:21 pm
http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2014/06/27/why-vancouver-housing-is-unaffordable-and-what-to-do-about-it/

Yeeesh, even Canadians of Asian heritage are getting nasty about the cost of housing and who’s to blame on the “Wet Coast”

——

So we get scolded on this site over and over that HAM does not exist…..even when its reported over and over.

And I just spent the day at MIT here in Boston listening to people say “You cannot have zero interest rates, deflation and a stock market that never goes down”. And there was plenty on all the phoney numbers which govt keeps reporting….like employment…….which keeps getting referenced on this blog as factual.

Which leaves the question is there any “independant” reporting of statistics that is considered accurate?

#254 Blogbitch on 03.07.15 at 7:43 pm

Since the rate drop, I feel like all I’ve heard from friends and colleagues is that now is the time to buy a new house. It’s staggering how a 0.25% drop in the BOC has created a frenzy among the gainfully employed. I look around and say to myself, “Really?!”

You can’t fix stupid. And you can’t fix sheeple.

#255 Smoking Man on 03.07.15 at 8:02 pm

#237 Bollinger RSI on 03.07.15 at 4:05 pm

It’s going to have to wait till tomorrow, my wife and got tired of staring at our weathering faces. We jumped in the car, drove south, at a casino on the NY, PA boarder.

Lots of Ufo sightings around here.

In the mean time, some homework for you grasshopper… Google economic calender. Get USA and Canada. So you know what I’m talking about when it comes to major economic news events.

#256 Vanecdotal on 03.07.15 at 8:03 pm

#225 BS

+1

Agreed. I too believe a lot of “new policy” may be coming down the pipe shortly after the federal election, regardless of who is in power in a desperarte bit to unwind this gasbag. (Horse, barn door…)

Likely policy targets imho:

1) CMHC changes revising coverage limit downwards highly likely, and RIGHT after election, I suspect by Q1 2016 at the latest.

2) CRA crackdown and enforcement of collection on illegal suite revenue.

3) CRA eliminating capital gains tax exemption on housing, I feel this is something the Feds may have to pursue going forward (albeit reluctantly). This one would come out of left field and be incredibly unpopular, however not long ago the Cons ran an election platform on “NOT taxing income trusts”, yes? Never say “never”.

4) CRA taxation changes on foreign ownership of RE.

5) Further immigration policy changes re: investor class, and possibly additional immigration tightening re: projected climbing unemployment rate

Throw in legalization, taxation and regulation of pot and the resulting hit to the Official Unofficial underground economy here, and/or any combination of these would cause major downside price pressure in YVR in particular, but also nationwide.

Yes, most of these would be extremely unpopular, but politicians are dammed if they do try to kick the can down the road again, and dammed if they don’t. Pitchforks are already being sharpened… Either way, the indebted masses will be looking for blood in the form of a govn’t bailout, only question is will it be slightly smaller hand-out sooner, or a much larger hand-out later.

#257 Vanecdotal on 03.07.15 at 8:13 pm

Meant to add further to last post, re: “Better for bad things to happen at the start of the term than the end.”

Totally agree, it’s much easier for a new government to blame everything on the previous one, and make sweeping changes to “clean up their mess”.

Or, for a re-elected government to suddenly claim “who would’ve thunk it – oil prices are volatile?! It’s Austerity Time kiddies!”

Either way, I see the possibility of big changes in the not-too-distant-future (2016-17) in the status quo here. I think many will be caught completely off-guard as these kinds of “plebe-ishly” unpopular things generally aren’t unveiled with much forward guidance.

#258 young & foolish on 03.07.15 at 8:21 pm

“The correction will occur one of these days but when it happens people on this blog will be too scared to buy anyway.”

Agreed … they will assume even lower prices tomorrow. It’s tough trying to time the market. Even so, RE is an expense (you pay for a place to live), and not an investment.

#259 young & foolish on 03.07.15 at 8:29 pm

“Now if you want to come here and debate, I will listen because I’m always ready to learn. If you just want to posture and sneer without supplying any basis in fact, you are indeed young and foolish. So read this and STFU.”

My apologies for being silly. It’s just that Saudi Kingdom legitimacy in a very volatile region seems to be based directly on their relationship with the US/Britain. Not hard to see the connection here between Western interests and Saudi compliance.

#260 TurnerNation on 03.07.15 at 8:31 pm

Top reasons for holding Gold:

– You are an anti-capitalist
– You a leftist extremist
– You are rightest extremist
– You are an idiot.

Even terrorists are smart enough to deal in oil and USD.

#261 aL pacino on 03.07.15 at 8:32 pm

DELETED (Anti-immigrant)

#262 young & foolish on 03.07.15 at 8:34 pm

” ….. supplying any basis in fact …. ”

It seems to be ok here to site MSN for facts regarding geopolitical events and financial market moves, but when it comes RE, MSN is a shill for the industry.

#263 TurnerNation on 03.07.15 at 8:46 pm

Isn’t it great living in this age of science, technology.

Why the average middle classer is commuting 2hrs daily on the GO Train to their downtown tax farm job, and paying 50% of net income towards basic shelter, and 40% off gross to all levels of taxation.
They cannot afford kids minor hockey costs. Lethargy, social safety net, sloth, TV, cost of living and nutrientless foodstuffs combine into formation of a
de facto one-child policy.
New movie: Honey, I shrunk.

Life at the lowest pyramidatic level!
Unless you are a price maker in the world’s top businesses (weapons, drugs, human trafficking, oil) you are a tax slave.

I found an old ‘smart, healthy’ taco seasoning package from 2011 vs. a freshly bought one. Read its nutrients list.
The old one has iron, more vitamins and a tiny bit of fat. New one has none of this. Stripped out. Tasty gruel. My UK grandparents lived perfectly to age 90 on a basic farm diet. Yes fat is a part of it – which we need.

Checked all the tinned soups on sale today. All contain MSG. Tasty gruel.

#264 BS on 03.07.15 at 8:47 pm

What are you talking about? So what if the rates go up a quarter of a point? Are you thinking? the rates will still be historically so very low.

And what happens when rates are no longer ‘historically low’? Keep in mind mortgage rates are linked to bond prices and credit quality. Both of those can increase mortgage rates even if the BOC keeps their rate low.

#265 RR - NS on 03.07.15 at 8:48 pm

I can’t see US interest rates increasing. If you read Shadowstats, real unemployment in the US is about 23%, which matches their high employment non-participation rate. If they increase rates, the $US index goes up more, which is the last thing thing need. Moreover, a 2% rise will increase interest payments on the national debt by about $350 billion per year. Finally, a lot of derivatives are tied to interest rates, which will blow things sky high. The only reason to raise rates will be to destroy the US and world economy – OK, that’s it!

US rates will rise, so get used to the fact the Fed probably knows more than you. — Gsrth

#266 BS on 03.07.15 at 8:54 pm

The correction will occur one of these days but when it happens people on this blog will be too scared to buy anyway.

It is not about if prices will go lower or not. It is about the cost of buying compared to renting. Currently renting is much cheaper. When that changes I will consider buying.

Personally I’m in no rush to buy. My money is doing fine invested elsewhere and there is virtually no difference in my life style renting a beautiful waterfront condo in YVR compared to buying it other than I am paying half. On second thought that does make a difference in my life style (the part about paying half).

#267 Smoked Squirrel Meat on 03.07.15 at 9:10 pm

Yikes.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Seismic+upgrading+schools+pushed+back+years+with+video/10865738/story.html

#268 Calgary Car Guy on 03.07.15 at 9:14 pm

Re/ #252 DELETED
Sorry Garth. I knew I was pushing the envelope a bit there. They were spur of the moment posts. I’ll be more careful.

#269 Smoking Man on 03.07.15 at 9:16 pm

The Ontario PCs are useless idiots. On the radio driving down here, Wynee is blasting son PC dude, accusing him of being Homophopic, I have a Masters Degree, bla bla bla.

Number one, no matter what a PC says, your never going to get the tree huggers and Pink shirt mafia to vote for you. So appeal to your core.

He caves, this how you handle that at debate.

Mrs, Wynee, I don’t even know the definition of a Homophob. Is it someone that beilives in sacrifice, marriage vows are sacred. You left your children and family for purely selfish urges, yet Im the one who’s committed a crime. I dare not speak of the deleted emails, the scandal after scandal. I admire your dedication and activism for your Gay and Lesbo community, but the your focus should be on helping manufacturing, lowering energy costs, create jobs. No mis wynee that’s not your first priority.. So I guess that makes me a homophob.

You boast about your masters degree as if it was on equal footing with a man walking on the moon. Memorizing, regurgitation, obedience does not equate to education. For all your self worship, Manufacturers are racing to leave this province.

They have no fath in you or your party, or your lifestyle.
……….

Ok had the dude said that, Toronto Star would be on his drive way.. But, outside the downtown core, all the votes would go to the PC’s.

Dr Smoking Man
Self appointed PhD in Herdonomics

#270 screwed on 03.07.15 at 9:18 pm

CIBC is offering this product that guarantees a min. 1.5% return and up to 12% if you lock your savings in for 3 yrs. It raised (my) eyebrows for sure. Product is tied to the “market”.

Being one of the big 5 banks in Canada, surely they have an inside track to the FED. If FED starts raising rates, the indexes will collapse. Plain and simple. Most gains are on the backs of corporate stock buybacks leveraged with corporate bonds courtesy of ZIRP.

Not even taking into account the monster QE that the ECB will be unleashing…

Real Estate is the only game in town. Owning property and having a registered title to land and building is all that’s left to put money. A little gold and silver doesn’t hurt either.

US jobs report is as always pure hogwash. Their economy was nearly dead 7 years ago. It took 16 trillion Dollars to have a few more people serving lattes or working cashiers at WMT.

There is NO growth and there is ZERO hope to get out of this economic nightmare.

Canada is in much better shape than most places in the world. We just have to pray the warmongering US aren’t going to drag us into WW3 just so they can re-balance their books and keep the reserve currency status.

#271 Fed-up on 03.07.15 at 9:19 pm

#249 Vanecdotal on 03.07.15 at 7:29 pm

Am eagerly anticipating the release of the foreign ownership data City of Van began “officially” tracking in 2014.
Hopefully it will not be “massaged” by special interests (development/RE lobby) prior to public release.

——————————————————————————-

Sadly, you can bet your life on the fact that it will be manipulated/massaged.

Money talks.

#272 Vanecdotal on 03.07.15 at 9:19 pm

One last thought on forthcoming policy changes. Wouldn’t be surprised when the unpopular “tough decision’ hammer drops, we will also see simultaneous massive govn’t spending initiatives rolled out that offer “employment” to the indebted masses to ease the pain, such as:

a) Major Armed Forces recruitment drive and elated infrastructure build-out

b) Massive transportation infrastructure build outs announced, (transit, highways, ferries, bridge replacement, etc).

c) A “sudden” interest in exploring viable green-energy, and new technology alternatives via increased tax credits / small business grants, etc. Major Oil & Gas players would be encouraged to diversify this way while providing jobs.

d) Repatriation of outsourced manufacturing via monetary incentives to reduce labour and automate on Cdn. soil. (Some decent local jobs better than none), similar to what the U.S. has been doing recently.

Which party is in power will have certainly have an affect on the order of preferred “stimulus” rolled out, but I believe it will come.

Next 2 years likely focus on jobs, jobs, jobs, and by proxy to high unemployment, immigration reform. Free market won’t be providing much work with our economy in the toilet, so govn’t will be stepping up to make the bitter austerity pill easier to swallow. “What one hand giveth, the other taketh away” as the saying goes.

Either way, taxpayers will be paying for this monstrous economic policy failure, for several generations imho.

#273 Godth on 03.07.15 at 9:24 pm

#263 TurnerNation on 03.07.15 at 8:46 pm

Jane Goodall and Steven Druker Expose US Government Fraud Over GMOs
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/03/jane-goodall-steven-druker-expose-us-government-fraud-gmos.html

#274 screwed on 03.07.15 at 9:26 pm

#225

Ask the Greeks, how their tax collection ideas are working for them. Invite the Troika members to Canada while you’re at it and maybe they can give you even better suggestions.

#275 Trojan House on 03.07.15 at 9:28 pm

#163 omg the original on 03.07.15 at 1:21 am

Actually, it is you that knows nothing of history. The world existed before the last 100 years. Study it.

#276 4 AM Sunrise on 03.07.15 at 9:30 pm

#247 Broke Dick on 03.07.15 at 7:15 pm

Well, that’s what happens when you have a government that sort of looks after its people. Result: health care yes, city parks no. It wasn’t even a botanical garden – it was seriously an ordinary city park with benches, trees, and grass! While these kinds of governments may lack in services, they also lack in red tape. That allows the industrious and/or corrupt to make way more money than a Canadian who has to wade through bureaucracy. We complain about it all the time, and sure, there are glaring faults that could be easily eliminated, but still…we are lucky. The poorest person in this country is still doing better than the average poor person in China.

I realized how much I take city parks for granted when I met this immigrant from China who gushed about the trees, the flowers, and even the skunk cabbage every time I ran into her.

And as for Chinese kidults who are expected to only find free fun…I mean, maybe I was exaggerating when I said “near zero”…the point is that after all fixed and discretionary expenses, there must be a decent amount leftover for investments. And I’ve read blogs written by frugal non-Asian Millennials who talk about finding free fun when money is tight.

#277 Vanecdotal on 03.07.15 at 9:39 pm

#271 Fed-up

Yes, I fear that too, especially in our local (city, provincial) political climate, however by virtue of the data being collected by a government agency I *believe* (correct me if I’m wrong) it would be accessible under a Freedom of Information request in the future, if need be.

If such documentation were to be issued redacted, that in and of itself would be both compelling, and highly inflammatory.

#278 Andrew Woburn on 03.07.15 at 9:44 pm

#259 young & foolish on 03.07.15 at 8:29 pm
My apologies for being silly. It’s just that Saudi Kingdom legitimacy in a very volatile region seems to be based directly on their relationship with the US/Britain. Not hard to see the connection here between Western interests and Saudi compliance.
=============
Apology accepted. As far as I can see Saudi is the 51st state so I agree.

#279 sotiri on 03.07.15 at 9:46 pm

We are in the “New Paradigm”!!! phase of the bubble

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Paul_Rodrigue#mediaviewer/File:Stages_of_a_bubble.png

#280 Smoking Man on 03.07.15 at 9:47 pm

The secret of life..

On JD, Johnny Cash
On Weed, Pink Floyed
On Wine, Handsome Family, Super Trump.

On Sobar, Lenard Cohen.

#281 OttawaMike on 03.07.15 at 9:56 pm

#269 Smoking Man on 03.07.15 at 9:16 pm

You on Modafinil or some sort of smart drugs these days Smokie?

Been knocking them outta the park with your posts lately.

#282 Smoking Man on 03.07.15 at 9:57 pm

Observations of middle aged cougars at the bar here tonight, unlike the young girls who still have faith in boys. Inexperience I’m thinking.

The cougars know that the men are bastards, who are controlled not by head atop of the shoulders, the other one.

They can’t get over it, especially when they’ve gone from green leaf to brown leaf. Resentment, till a skilled lier like me can bull shit them into submission, then my wife shows up looking for more loot to feed her demon, the Buffalo slot machine.

That’s life.

#283 Porsche on 03.07.15 at 10:06 pm

#46 ILoveCharts on 03.06.15 at 8:37 pm
Hopefully I will avoid the DELETE button with this one but let me ask a legitimate question:

Canadian houses are looking even more affordable for off-shore buyers as a result of dropping CAD.

/////////////////////////////////////////////

There is no data confirming this. But we have ample data showing Canadians are gorging on new mortgage debt. We are to blame for this. Stop blaming others. — Garth

Garth it’s kind of Math 101 isn’t it, U.S. real estate looked better for us with $1.10 loonie however short lived it was.

No evidence Canadians influenced US prices. — Garth

#284 Thelma on 03.07.15 at 10:09 pm

WHOA!!!
SIT BANDIT SIT!!!!!!

#285 jobs jobs jobs on 03.07.15 at 10:11 pm

#72 Vanecdotal

Next 2 years likely focus on jobs, jobs, jobs, and by proxy to high unemployment, immigration reform. Free market won’t be providing much work with our economy in the toilet, so govn’t will be stepping up to make the bitter austerity pill easier to swallow.

——

With robotics – and automation in general – evolving fast I don’t understand why governments and people want to “create” more jobs.

It is a complete waste of money, it is trying to go against the trend.

The logical direction would be to accelerate automation (efficiency) as fast as possible, the benchmark goal would be that how many jobs we eliminated today, by shifting it over to the more efficient, cheaper automation, robotics.

That’s where public money should go, making the public the owner of the cheap efficient production and issue living dividends to replace living wages.

Spending public money to artificially slow down the much more efficient and economical automation by “creating” jobs that will eventually go away anyway should be a crime.

#286 Porsche on 03.07.15 at 10:22 pm

If your an old baby boomer and waiting for interest rates to rise back to your era of norm…….. it ain’t happening.

Low interest rates is the new era if you haven’t clued in yet, they won’t be climbing back to the norm of your era.

You will be long gone dead before 8% 5 year rates ever come back.

Mark it.

#287 Bollinger RSI on 03.07.15 at 10:26 pm

# Smoking Man

In the mean time, some homework for you grasshopper… Google economic calender. Get USA and Canada. So you know what I’m talking about when it comes to major economic news events.

====

Have a good trip to the Casino.

In the economic calendar I found only one common thing between CA and US. Daylight savings time.

#288 SWL1976 on 03.07.15 at 10:29 pm

#273 Godth

Jane Goodall and Steven Druker Expose US Government Fraud Over GMOs

————————

Food is the new weapon of the 21st century. Monsanto has developed a aluminum resistant seed. Why you might ask… Well aluminum just so happens to be a major ingredient in the chemtrail mix.

Sorry no links cause I’m on my moblie, but google it and see what you find. Just don’t follow the CIA debunking troll trail designed to mesmerize all the sheep

#289 Last of the Baby Boomers on 03.07.15 at 10:39 pm

Thank you host and bloggers for all of your amazing advice and thought provoking posts and predictions.

Can someone explain to me if it is better or equal to purchase a particular U.S. hedged fund with Canadian dollars vs. buying the same fund on the NYSE with U.S. dollars. Are there any tax advantages of either. I am very new to investing and am interested in purchasing a primarily U.S. based REIT and have U.S. dollars to invest but am not sure if I should purchase the same fund on the TSX with Canadian dollars vs. on the NYSE with my U.S. dollars.

#290 Fed-up on 03.07.15 at 10:47 pm

#277 Vanecdotal on 03.07.15 at 9:39 pm
—————————————————————————–

I’m sure the information will be accessible, but we all know how reliable government statistics have become in our once fine country.

#291 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 03.07.15 at 10:51 pm

I see stupid.

http://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/priaro-albertans-must-look-in-the-mirror-but-not-in-the-way-prentice-intended

#292 RR - NS on 03.07.15 at 10:53 pm

Garth, if you are right that the US will raise interest rates by June (I believe the date you said) the only reason I can see that makes sense is because they promised to do it and the investment world will react anyway if they don’t. In other words, the US Fed is now between a rock and hard place, and their only hope for respectability will be to raise rates SOMEWHAT – maybe 50bp to test the waters. Then July Groundhog Day?

#293 young & foolish on 03.07.15 at 11:23 pm

So much pre-occupation with interest rates on here … why? They may rise, somewhat. Suck it up!

“You will be long gone dead before 8% 5 year rates ever come back.”

I tend to agree here. Roubini’s latest article suggests many places are already, or will be soon, dealing with negative rates.

#294 Smoking Man on 03.07.15 at 11:27 pm

Moments after I crossed the boarder today, I stop the car in the lot to light up a self made Cig. USA customes screaming at me to move along while I blow smoke rings.
Wife says are you insane. You took that across.

I said, I’m trying to find your God,

She says ok, how much longer to the casino..

Life is all I’m saying..

I love my life, and my wife….

#295 45north on 03.07.15 at 11:42 pm

The American: Without transparency into the Canadian MLS and Public Tax and Recording Records (we have full transparency in the U.S. BY LAW), the melt in Canada may be even more painful that what was seen in the U.S. Okay, okay, okay, I’ll go ahead and say it… It will most definitely be more painful than what was seen in the U.S. No doubt about it.

I’m very afraid you are right. As Garth says we don’t have transparency in Canada. Here’s a bit from yesterday’s post:

The Financial Post said, “Housing sales across the Greater Toronto Area climbed 11.3% in February from a year ago, helping to push the average sale price of detached homes in the city past the $1 million mark for the first time.

The real estate industry can post whatever it wants.

BS: Expect more irrational policy until the election. After the election I wouldn’t be surprised to see tightening to CMHC to try to unwind this thing.

the problem with a name like BS is you cannot search for it. For example you find “jobs” when you do a search.

Vanecdotal: referencing BS’s post: Agreed. I too believe a lot of “new policy” may be coming down the pipe shortly after the federal election, regardless of who is in power in a desperate bid to unwind this gasbag.

again I’m afraid you guys are right. It’s just too damn bad the politicians cannot make rational policy right now. Like raise the interest rates back to 1% where they were last year. Like require a 10% down payment on property selling for $900,000 to $1 million. Like immediately setting up independent entities to compile real estate statistics and prohibit publishing of statistics that are not independently compiled.

The American said “It will most definitely be more painful than what was seen in the U.S.”. Well so far it hasn’t been that painful. Not even close. That level of pain will change the political landscape of Canada. Who would survive? I’m thinking maybe the municipal politicians.

#296 Snowboid on 03.08.15 at 12:06 am

#286 Bollinger RSI on 03.07.15 at 10:26 pm…

“…I found only one common thing between CA and US. Daylight savings time…”

Except in Arizona and Hawaii (along with several US territories), which don’t observe DST.

#297 Willy2 on 03.08.15 at 12:12 am

Nope. Contrary to common belief, a rising USD is the best sign the US economy is about to fall apart (again).

Nope. You confuse short term rates with long term rates. The BoC followed market rates and lowered short term rates and that’s an ackownledgement that the canadian economy is getting weaker. The US economy is also getting weaker and that why the FED won’t raise rates anytime soon. All the talk about raising rates is only an attempt to gently deflate the stockmarket which is high on leverage.

I expect to see long term rates to go higher much earlier and much faster than anyone expects. Both in Canada & the US.

#298 Barry in Pickering on 03.08.15 at 12:30 am

Barry: The correct call would have been “buy US, buy Canada” (not “buy US, sell Canada”)

Garth: When I first suggested it the dollar was at par and US house prices were down 26%. Equities were likewise on sale. Guess you missed it. — Garth
=====================================

Yes, I did pass on your suggestion to buy US real estate, and sell Canadian Real Estate. So I don’t own some kind of rental property in Phoenix or something.

Instead I stuck with my global ETF, which is up 56% over the last 2 years. And kept my Canadian house.

#299 Alberta is FINISHED on 03.08.15 at 12:45 am

The people of Alberta are FINISHED. They are so clueless to reality or economics or really anything that every child in the world would understand that conservatives are for the 1%. The cons are stealing and wasting all their money and they still vote in the cons. What a dumb dumb dumb province full of dummies. No wonder canada is celebrating Alberta and their fall. Detroit is your future and you voted for it fools.

http://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/priaro-albertans-must-look-in-the-mirror-but-not-in-the-way-prentice-intended

#300 Waterloo Resident on 03.08.15 at 1:27 am

All the time I keep hearing people talking about interest rates rising back to normal levels. Well, that only works when DEBT is at normal levels. Just look at Europe for an example, they were talking about rising rates back to normal levels 2 years ago and now look at them, a lot of places are now in NEGATIVE rate territory. That’s because when you have massive debts (like Canada) there is no way out, you cannot inflate your way out of it and you cannot tax your way out of it. The only way out of it is to do what Iceland did and that is to DEFAULT your way out of it. Japan’s way of creating Zombie banks doesn’t work, it just brings in a period of very slow growth / deflation growth, and the debt just climbs higher and higher until Japan will also default and their financial house of cards collapses. Gold won’t go higher in value relative to things you need like food or gasoline because in deflation gold actually falls down relative to those things, but at least Gold won’t become worthless like the Japanese Yen will when Japan begins to default. Same thing with the Euro. I’m not to sure about the American dollar, but there sure is a massive amount of debt created by the Fed to stave off deflation after 2008 and there is no way the will be able to create enough tax income to meet all of their entitlements and pay off that debt, so it’s just a debt bomb similar to Japan’s, ready to explode. Just going to take a little bit longer, that’s all. China is holding up America’s debt tsunami, and if the Chinese housing bubble ever pops and their economy falls, then they won’t be able to lend America at low rates that America needs to service their debts because China will need to repatriate their cash to prop up their own economy, so that’s when America’s debt bubble will pop. Watch China; if their debt bubble appears to be popping then that’s close to when America’s financial house of cards will fall also. After that you’ve only got about 2 to 4 years to get your cash out of American dollars and into something that won’t ‘evaporate’ into thin air, and for now the only things I can think of is Silver, Gold, maybe Platinum (precious metals). Maybe that’s why China is hoarding so much gold? Probably.
Tin foil hat time? Sure sounds like it, but the above is 100% true. Lets just hope China can somehow magically keep their housing bubble inflated for as long as possible. As long as they can do that then America’s economic growth will power the stock market and the American dollar ever higher.
Now back to the question about interest rates: Will America raise rates soon? Probably this summer, but only 2 rate rises ( 0.25% each ), after which they will pause. That’s when they will begin to notice that the economy is beginning to slow down. You see, the last recession was in 2008 and normally we have a recession every 7 years +/- 2 years, so we are ready to enter into a new recession any time right now. This economic recovery you are seeing in the U.S. is not the beginning of a new economic recovery period, no, it is instead the PEAK between recessions, just like 2007 was the peak between the 2001 and 2008 recessions. That news kind of sucks doesn’t it?

#301 Calgary Car Guy on 03.08.15 at 4:12 am

Since I had my first DELETE earlier from foolishly trying to post something I shouldn’t have I figured it was time I gave a proper Calgary update to try to make up for it. I do work at a very well established Calgary car dealership. In the service department. I have spent almost 40 years performing this hands-on retail job in this town and know a lot of people and therefore hear and see many things from people in all walks of life.
When oil prices first took their big drop it was such a surprise completely out of left field that people were generally in shock. It really was the “Wile E. Coyote running off the cliff” situation there for the first month or so. Many still are in shock although denial and a certain amount of fear is becoming palpable. Pretty much everyone I have had any conversation with about the economic situation says the same thing. These low oil prices will not last. It will only be a few months and prices will bounce back. Calgarians and Albertans in general are famous for having a strong positive attitude about living and working here and this situation is definitely putting that to a test. Several different people have mentioned that there have been heavier amounts of lay-offs than what has been reported. Not just the little people either. Many higher echelon jobs with six figure paycheques. Real estate agents aren’t talking about their business at all and I’m not going to ask. A friend of mine works for a company that sells equipment to vehicle repair shops. Hoists, wheel alignment racks, tire machines,etc. He told me their business has dropped like a rock since the Canadian dollar took its’ dive. Almost everything they sell comes up from the U.S. and is now too pricey to sell–especially in this economic climate. I believe he told me their sales have dropped by about two thirds and they are hurting.
We are doing fairly well still at the dealer I am at. We are a solid dealer with a very strong established customer base. This is normally our slowest time of year anyways but it really doesn’t seem any slower in our service department than any other normal years. We recently have had a couple of different reps from the manufacturer come to our store for a few days and they commented on how busy we still were. One trainer said we were busier than any other store he had been to in the country, believe it or not. I know the sales department has been slower than normal but I don’t know the numbers.
Some people reference the 2008 crash and mention how well we (Calgarians) came through that but I think that is comparing apples and oranges. This is much different in my opinion. I’m a bit worried it could get as bad as the big recession in ’80/81. I remember it well and I don’t want to see it again. Yes, interest rates were sky-high then and we don’t have that but what we do have is massive personal debt and over investment in inflated real estate that is now taking a swan dive. I have seen many,many people stretched out on debt struggling to afford car repair bills for a number of years now. Before this oil disaster happened.
A few weeks ago somebody posted on this blog about Albertans generally focusing their financial investments in Alberta oil companies. That is very, very true so this is a double whammy and shaping up to be a perfect storm in so many respects.
I have noticed things slowing down in the city in the last several weeks. It wasn’t noticeable at first but now it is. Traffic is lighter. Stores are quieter. I was in Home Depot today and it was very noticeably slow for a Saturday on a beautiful mild day.
Calgary has always had its’ booms and busts. We are a strong, active, very positive-thinking city and we will pull through this. I have no doubt of that. But the longer oil prices stay down the more carnage there will be. The very high personal debt-load here and heavily mortgaged mansion owners are really going to get hit hard though. It’s not going to end well for the big spenders, that’s for sure.

#302 The Unkown on 03.08.15 at 7:32 am

This may be the clearest signal yet that interest rates in the US are surely going to start rising. The US market reacted by a nearly 300 point dive in the Dow.

It seems that many analysts, top economists, hedge funds and even pension fund managers are now saying that the next few years will be a very tough period for investing. Everything from real estate, stocks, commodities, bonds, prefereds, reits, etc… looking expensive or toppy.

Is this the nightmare scenario that the average investor fears. A lethargically growing world economy with low growth and minimal returns from just about everything?

Hardly. US rates are rising as a result of robust growth. It will continue. I have encountered no ‘top economist’ saying anything of the sort. — Garth

#303 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.08.15 at 9:55 am

Smoking Man @ 269

Sums up my thoughts exactly. Where is the old PC Party of Bill Davis et al? I would have voted for them, but I can’t bring myself to vote for the Hudac/Harris/Harper NEO-KOOKS. (Hmm, three last names starting with “H”! Coincidence?)

Wynne should be worrying about jobs, the economy, and the manufacturing base instead of LGBTLMNOP rights and a so called “culture of misogyny”.

#304 NoName on 03.08.15 at 10:44 am

interesting read

“Data sharing isn’t without challenges. It may expose weaknesses or problems you don’t want your customers to see. Some companies will be perfectly happy to keep their customers ignorant of how inefficiently they use or misuse their products or services. ”

http://goo.gl/bf9VIk

#305 hamish42 on 03.08.15 at 10:50 am

US subprime story
So here’s how it worked in the US just before the crash i.e. nearly 9 years ago:
Put down a $750 deposit, borrow the rest using 2 or 3 mortgages then rent out the acquired house for less than the monthly cost of the mortgages (because the house is guaranteed to go up in value this makes sense).
I know someone who did this on five houses, the sixth one he tried to do it on was the one I owned. The banks has just started to wise up and turned down the mortgage applications.
I sold to a “normal” buyer two months later.
I was not following the financial sector at the time but it did strike me that it would not end well.
The GTA market looks similar right now.

#306 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.15 at 10:55 am

@#298 Alberta is Finito
“What a dumb dumb dumb province full of dummies….”

Had a bad experience in Alberta did we?

#307 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.15 at 10:58 am

@#287 SWL 1976
“developed a aluminum resistant seed. Why you might ask… Well aluminum just so happens to be a major ingredient in the chemtrail mix………”

The chem trail mix……………

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

Off your meds again are we SWL?

#308 Bdy on 03.08.15 at 11:22 am

chem trail mix… tried this but much prefer almond trail mix. It’s chunchier and less chemicalish

#309 CREIT on 03.08.15 at 11:36 am

@#268

great comment. people never understand that basic comparison.

#310 Smoked Squirrel Meat on 03.08.15 at 11:50 am

#287 SWL1976 on 03.07.15 at 10:29 pm

So Monsanto is flying around spraying aluminum to contaminate the soil so that aluminum resistant seeds are needed……

Sure absolutely totally believable!

#311 SWl1976 on 03.08.15 at 12:18 pm

#309 Smoked Squirrel Meat

Dismiss at your own peril – Monsanto is not flying but they are in cahoots with who is

#312 Calgary Car Guy on 03.08.15 at 12:20 pm

Re my post at #300
“Many higher echelon jobs with six figure paycheques”
Obviously I meant to say six figure incomes. I had also mentioned in that post about people being in denial. Actually I think they are pretty much over the denial phase and starting to enter the anger phase. Witness the reaction to Jim Prentice’s comment about Albertans “looking in the mirror”. Many people are furious about that comment believing that poor government spending practices have made our situation worse. While that is true I also understand what Prentice is referring to. Albertans have been living large for a long time now and have been very demanding on government to provide the very best in services, infrastructure, programs,etc. After all, we live in the rich oil province, right?
The sudden, unexpected drop in oil prices was the best example of a “black swan” event that you will ever see (if I understand the term properly). Nobody but nobody was forecasting it that I am aware of. You would have been laughed out of the province a year ago if you had suggested it was even a possibly. That is why Albertans in general and Calgarians in particular have the highest personal debt-load of anyone in the country. Maybe even the world. We were extremely confident in our future here. The world needs oil. We’re past “peak oil” and countries like China and India are needing much more oil than they have in the past. Alberta has a huge reserve of oil in the oil sands and the infrastructure is in place to retrieve it. That oil WILL get to market somehow. How on earth could the price of oil drop? We were over-confident and we over-spent and over-borrowed. Now we will pay. Prentice is right in that extent.

#313 Panhead on 03.08.15 at 12:30 pm

#247 Broke Dick on 03.07.15 at 7:15 pm
#241 4 AM Sunrise on 03.07.15 at 5:47 pm

Wow. Paying to get into a park!!
——————————————————–

Our illustious Premier Christie Clarke was charging to park in our Provincial parks a few years ago. OUR parks. Didn’t last too long though …

#314 Nagraj on 03.08.15 at 12:30 pm

GT in two comments writes that the “Fed knows more” and refers to ” . . . top economists.”

Well, you know, speaking Biblically “by their fruits . . . ”

As I recall, in one of the appendices to “War and Peace”, Tolstoy writes that the social order of his day would last another 1,000 years. Turns out he was off by 900plus.

That there’s a strong economic recovery happening in the US is arguable, it’s not a given. US rates rising or not, is up for speculation. Closer to home there’s been one – mistake – by the BoC; who’s to say there won’t be several more.

We live in uncertain times.

I’m sure of this: most Canadians hate the banks, hate the oil companies, hate the exec suite, hate landlords, fear Forners (sic), and hold politicians in contempt.

Most Canadians are also financial basket cases with a one-asset strategy, no liquidity, no plan and epic debt. Your point? — Garth

#315 Alberta is AWESOME on 03.08.15 at 12:51 pm

Springtime in the Rockies.

http://www.wx.ca/?service=page/Forecast

#316 JimH on 03.08.15 at 12:56 pm

#287 SWL1976
“… aluminum just so happens to be a major ingredient in the chemtrail mix.”
=================================
Oh, please! Not the great “chemtrail” conspiracy again?
Yes, let’s google it, shall we?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chemtrail_conspiracy_theory

https://www.metabunk.org/threads/debunked-monsantos-aluminum-resistant-gmos-and-chemtrails.341/

http://contrailscience.com/how-to-debunk-chemtrails/

http://science.howstuffworks.com/transport/flight/modern/what-are-chemtrails.htm

#317 Broke Dick on 03.08.15 at 1:08 pm

#304 hamish42 on 03.08.15 at 10:50 am
US subprime story
So here’s how it worked in the US just before the crash i.e. nearly 9 years ago:
Put down a $750 deposit, borrow the rest using 2 or 3 mortgages then rent out the acquired house for less than the monthly cost of the mortgages (because the house is guaranteed to go up in value this makes sense).
I know someone who did this on five houses, the sixth one he tried to do it on was the one I owned. The banks has just started to wise up and turned down the mortgage applications.
I sold to a “normal” buyer two months later.
I was not following the financial sector at the time but it did strike me that it would not end well.
The GTA market looks similar right now.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++
I’ll call you on that call.
Toronto proper has double property tax add in 5 % reator fees and various closing costs. Factor all these costs and you will realize there is no money to be made unless one is doing a major, and I mean major, reno or an infill.

#318 Sue on 03.08.15 at 1:16 pm

#287 SWL1976 on 03.07.15 at 10:29 pm
“…aluminum resistant seed.”

lol…that ‘tin foil’ hat is made of aluminum, so I guess that makes the wearers resistant too.

#319 Smoked Squirrel Meat on 03.08.15 at 1:32 pm

#310 SWl1976 on 03.08.15 at 12:18 pm

#309 Smoked Squirrel Meat

Dismiss at your own peril – Monsanto is not flying but they are in cahoots with who is
______________________________________
Monsanto is certainly an aggressive company with questionable practices like selling corporate seeds best suited to their fertilizers, etc………but aluminium chemtrails to contaminate soils to their advantage……

Total crock of shit…….. surely you must be trolling.

#320 SWL1976 on 03.08.15 at 1:38 pm

#315 JimH – You’re right, just go back to sleep. I see you thouroghly reasearhed the subject.

Thanks – Now pass the kool aid

Remember a lie is a lie even if everyone believes it, and the truth is the truth even if nobody believes it

#321 SWL1976 on 03.08.15 at 1:53 pm

#318 Smoked Squirrel Meat

Far from a troll, the truth is out there and most everyday there is evidence in the sky overhead.

Just look up – They started with weather manipulation.

Remember, if the corporations don’t already own everything… They soon will