Hopeless

WASH CHILD modified

Breaking: BoC holds rates. (Of course.)

“Stop it,” she said.

I looked up and saw a dour woman with a gray jacket, gray hair and a gray face daggering me. “Stop what?” I asked, interrupting my call.

“Stop talking on your cellphone and walking in the hallway. It’s not allowed because it disturbs people.”

Glancing around I saw a giant, long, resplendent marble-encrusted passageway, devoid of life. Nobody. Not even a bug.

“There’s no one here, besides I’m a guest.” I entered blog mode. “So please get lost.”

As she sprinted off to find security, I made my way back to the safety of the conference room, happy I decided not to write a $53,000 cheque for the Granite Club initiation fee (annual dues of five grand are extra). My joy was fleeting. Brad Lamb was lying in wait.

So, yeah, I gave in to repeated requests and joined a panel discussion on Tuesday focussed on the future of real estate in Toronto and lesser regions of the universe. Condo King Lamb (he’s currently shopping for a house “in the $5 to $7 million range”) was joined by former BeeMo chief economist Sherry Cooper, who has a new hairdo and a gig with Dominion Lending Centres. Three big builders were at the table, one of them bragging about his current 40,000 square foot, $35-million house project for a Chinese client. A realtor-to-the-stars was present, who just sold her home for seven mill and complained about having to reduce the price (“then it sold in three days!”), along with a former Toronto mayoralty candidate, a developer dude about to join the CBC Dragons thing and a half-dozen swirling photogs.

Well, it was brutal. Cooper and Lamb tag-teamed me, arguing real estate is the only asset Canadians need, that dorks like me (actually just me) are responsible for “all those people missing all that growth” and that this blog, “is like assisted suicide.” Of course I bleated away about most people’s rising debt being proof they were buying beyond their means, that most Canadians have houses but no money or financial plan of any kind, and that Boomers like them were literally shoving property down the throats of their malleable millennials. I also referenced Calgary, where a year ago nobody knew real estate would collapse into an ocean of listings, as evidence of the risk inherent in a one-asset strategy.

It was hopeless, of course. In fact, it was designed that way. I watched an evil smirk snake across the lips of the organizer, publisher of a chain of high-end magazines chock-a-block with glossy condo and mansion ads. I felt like a nubile, helpless virgin stretched across the sacrificial alter, which was briefly arousing. Then I was pummeled some more. After three hours, Club staff had to collect me with spoons.

Of course, all the people in that room, save the mischievous host and the techies, live or die based on the property market. They’re millionaires, move in elevated social circles, profit immensely from society’s house-lusty fetish and are direct beneficiaries of cheap-rate policies and the web of incentives promoting home ownership. The more the sheeple borrow and spend (did you see the latest debt numbers? Yikes.) the more they profit. Nothing to begrudge about that, but they epitomize an economy built on hormones and entitlement. Hard to understand how it will end well when each day the disconnect between real estate and the economy grows wider.

Bleeding now from each orifice, I checked my email and found this note, from Mark and Anne in Toronto:

So, it finally happened yesterday. A couple that we are friends with – for the longest time our buddies in holding out and staying strong – collapsed and bought a ramshackle $600k bung with pink bathrooms within earshot of two of Ontario’s busiest highways. I now have to face up to the inevitable lying through my teeth with the fake congratulations and admiration of their rotting wood-panelled basement while secretly weeping on the inside for them.

Our resolve remains firm, yet we can’t help but wonder if there is any return from this madness. People are apparently showing no sign of fear as prices escalate to beyond ridiculous levels – if anything it has this bizarre opposite effect of making them want to jump in harder and faster. Between us we are pulling in $190k/yr. Our rent is 9% of that. We are debt-free and have a six-figure balanced investment portfolio. At current levels we are not willing to sacrifice our future by going all-in on a house.

The more we think about it, the more it seems we’re trying to beat the system and have no chance. We make decent money, have decent savings, live in one of the largest countries by land mass in the world – and yet we cannot afford to buy a house without severely risking our retirement. Absolute insanity.

Can you comment on your blog for those in our position; steadfast in our resolve to not throw ourselves into this madness, yet thoroughly depressed at government policy and societal lemmingness that shows no end to the status quo? Please show us there is light at the end of this tunnel and good things come to those with patience.

Of course. I’ll go one better. There’s light at the end of the urinal.

“Hey Brad,” I said cautiously as I limped into the upscale men’s room after the event. He paused. Looked over at me. “I want you to know,” he said, “that I respect your view. It makes sense. But this is all about mind share.” It’s just marketing.

Update: The day after the Granite Club encounter, Brad Lamb sent out this tweet:

Garth Turner blatantly lying about bathroom conversation. I said “I understand your point of view, but don’t agree with it. It’s nothing personal, I’m fighting for minds.”

Memory is complex thing.

298 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 03.03.15 at 6:56 pm

Photo of thirsty underwear?

#2 Smoking Man on 03.03.15 at 6:59 pm

Phirst!

#3 LH on 03.03.15 at 7:00 pm

In a funny way, this blog is the same. marketing and mind share. God bless you both.

#4 Realitybytes on 03.03.15 at 7:03 pm

Oooo, he should have said “off the record”

#5 Obvious Truth on 03.03.15 at 7:08 pm

Nothing I noticed in canada responded to the GDP number well. Especially for all the reported shorting and one sided bets.

All inventories. Rest was ugly. Feeble pop.

In my opinion what the boc does is irrelevant. About mindshare you might say. Investors don’t fall for marketing.

#6 Millenial-falcon (the original) on 03.03.15 at 7:11 pm

Garth,
I can totally relate to the writer, in the same boat .
No one saw the oil patch coming and your are right there but what kinda shock can derail freight train 416/604
Especially 604 , it’s a diversified economy and when trying to think of a housing market threat. Only 2 things come up
1. We run out of New buyers
2. Rates go up ( not happening )

Any theories on how this 604 market slows down ? I see no negative feedback loop coming ……. I’m all ears!

#7 Grantmi on 03.03.15 at 7:13 pm

#2 Smoking Man on 03.03.15 at 6:59 pm

Phirst!

Nope SM. as always you’re just slightly off!

#8 jess on 03.03.15 at 7:16 pm

From the other day someone asked:
If the rich hire advisors, who do rich advisors hire? Richer advisors?

financial engineers
wrappers / Swiss Private Placement Life Insurance (PPLI)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=aCjco55_cnMo&pid=newsarchive
PPLI policies
PPLI combines private banking and portfolio management into a life insurance structure.
… taxpayers is that certain foreign life insurance products, including PPLI, must be reported on a Report of Foreign Bank and Financial Accounts (FBAR) to the IRS on a yearly basis.
http://federaltaxcrimes.blogspot.ca/2014/02/us-authorities-focus-on-swiss-insurance.html
http://www.engelreiman.com/asset-protection-developments/crackdown-by-u-s-government-on-swiss-private-placement-life-insurance
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21645259-making-tax-transparency-standards-watertight-will-be-difficult-leaks-tap

#9 For those about to flop... on 03.03.15 at 7:22 pm

My view might seem a bit simplistic but I’ll give it a go anyway.
Picture this ,no one in Canada buys real estate for a month .Prices would probably drop 5%
Next month nobody buys again,prices could drop 10%
Repeat this process for the next four months and panic would set in in sellers minds and you could expect a 25%
drop after six months.
The evidence would suggest other wise ,but are we that thick that we can’t wait 6 months to get a 25% discount on the most expensive thing most of us will ever purchase.
You either get in at the start of a boom ,which most times you won’t know that the timing was good,or you wait it out to it bursts .
It’s one thing to overpay ,and another thing to overpay for a moldy ,poorly built piece of property .
It’s sit on your hands time.

#10 wallflower on 03.03.15 at 7:22 pm

Ha. The Granite Club.
In 1971, I appeared at the side door (because in private school uniform, I was not suitably attired for the main door) along with my younger sister.
Grumpy Door Guy insisted on confirmation that we were members.
Seriously? An 8 year old and an 11 year old girl, both in private school uniforms?
I presented my membership card.
He harrummphed.
My sister presented her membership card with her middle name being that of our maternal grandfather’s unique surname.
“Ah, so you are the grandchildren of Dr. _____” – a renowned oral surgeon and eminent club member.
He then let us pass.
WTF?
That’s the Granite Club for ya!
Later, when it was within my means of decision making, giving up the Granite Club and Osler Bluff Ski Club (one in the same) was a delightful Never-Look-Back proposition.

#11 Everything is bad :c on 03.03.15 at 7:24 pm

Here’s an ad on one of Calgary forums
http://imgur.com/DBhYOlI.jpg

#12 Jeff on 03.03.15 at 7:25 pm

There’s a good saying I read recently: “it’s very hard to make someone understand something when their income depends on them not understanding it”… this was a great example of it. Good on Brad for at least showing some attempt at understanding though.

#13 Just Sayin on 03.03.15 at 7:26 pm

You are smart to wait. I know a few people that went balls deep a few years ago in Victoria and up Island and are sorry they did.

#14 Smoking Man on 03.03.15 at 7:28 pm

#2 Smoking Man on 03.03.15 at 6:59 pm
Phirst!
…….
#2 You imposter….

That was good Garth, really enjoyed it, I think you’re just about ready to write Fiction.

#15 Derek R on 03.03.15 at 7:29 pm

They want 53,000 dollars? For that I would expect the Stainless Steel and Granite Club.

Sorry to hear that you were on your own against the RE Big Guns though. That would have been tough even with a buddy.

#16 Steve-0 on 03.03.15 at 7:29 pm

Any theories on how this 604 market slows down ? I see no negative feedback loop coming ……. I’m all ears!
———————————————————————

Nobody can predict the future. They shouldn’t even try. I’m sold on the diversified balanced portfolio.

#17 Happy Renting on 03.03.15 at 7:29 pm

A thought for Mark and Anne: hang out with richer people?

Reasoning: the truly rich will a) not have their retirement riding on the value of their house, and b) be (or be helped by someone who is) knowledgeable about managing money in a rational, disciplined way. I’m sure there’s a place where your behaviour is normal. It’s probably among rich(er) people.

I see diversification and investing as the secret to maximizing the benefit of the current system, not a hopeless attempt to “beat” it. I have been pondering my next career move and am interested to see that there have been quite a few days where my portfolio has out-earned me. It shines a whole different light on making money by “doing tawdry things like working”. A house won’t generate income in the same way, but that’s what the majority of people in the system push towards at the expense of all else.

You can genuinely congratulate your friends. They made a big commitment in the pursuit of what they think will make them happy. Even if you think it was a risky and dumb move, congratulate them on striving for something. For all you know they could sell at the top and make out like bandits (though we all know it’s foolhardy to bank on doing that.)

#18 Mean Gene on 03.03.15 at 7:30 pm

Quite the snooty place.

https://www.graniteclub.com/Default.aspx?p=DynamicModule&pageid=312622&ssid=201994&vnf=1

Members and Guests are asked to ensure all personal communication devices (PCDs) are turned off or switched to ‘silent’ or ‘vibrate’ mode and audible cellular notifications must never be heard. Cellular devices may be used throughout the Club for emailing, texting and retrieving voicemails but not for voice communication. Cellular devices may be used discreetly to engage in voice communication only while in the immediate vicinity of a house phone. The use of laptops, tablets, e-readers and handheld games is permitted provided they are on ‘silent’ mode. Staff may request cessation of use deemed to be inappropriate at any time.

#19 Funky on 03.03.15 at 7:30 pm

Brutal indeed.

Thanks for the steadfast counter punch.
“If you can keep your head…”

#20 OttawaMike on 03.03.15 at 7:32 pm

Ahh.. The Granite Club. That was my place of employment for a couple of years in the school days of my youth during the early 80’s.

The carousing and partying that went on there, if only you knew–I’m only talking about the staff.

They paid a living wage back then and provided everybody a generous cash filled envelope to the tune of $1,000 at Christmas time. Although I heard by the mid eighties that changed to a bonus cheque.

Many employees were lifers with the majority being new Canadians.
Fond memories of those by-gone days..

#21 For those about to flop... on 03.03.15 at 7:33 pm

Garth , have you not heard of the semi annual baby washing championships they have in China?

#22 Rob on 03.03.15 at 7:33 pm

Smoking Man. Don’t do the first thing! You’re the only poster on this blog that i like!

#23 Londoner on 03.03.15 at 7:33 pm

“No mainstream economists predicted a cut. And it was a mistake. — Garth”

So only the views of mainstream economists are considered legitimate? I thought this blog promoted independent, critical thinking and contrarian views. If you’re going to believe mainstream economists then prepare for a few more “shocks”.

Come on Garth, tell us why you think the rate cut was a mistake. And I’m not talking about goosing the housing market or creating some short term inflation. Given actual economic data, please explain why the BoC shouldn’t have purposely tanked the CAD to drive foreign exports?

#24 Panhead on 03.03.15 at 7:35 pm

I limped into the upscale men’s room after the event. He paused. Looked over at me…

———————————————————–

…Was he laughing?

#25 We The Sheeple on 03.03.15 at 7:37 pm

Millenial Falcon (the original)

You know what can derail the 604 in about 20 seconds?

The major earthquake that can happen at any moment as the whole region is overdue for one.

Cheers,

We The Sheeple

#26 mark on 03.03.15 at 7:40 pm

“But this is all about mind share. It’s just marketing.”

Disgusting.

#27 Fed-up on 03.03.15 at 7:40 pm

#5 Obvious Truth on 03.03.15 at 7:08 pm
Nothing I noticed in canada responded to the GDP number well. Especially for all the reported shorting and one sided bets.

All inventories. Rest was ugly. Feeble pop.

——————————————————————————

It was mainly attributed to consumer and government spending. An irrelevant and BS pop is more like it.

#28 calgaryPhantom on 03.03.15 at 7:45 pm

link to the show?

#29 Cici on 03.03.15 at 7:46 pm

Dear Garth,

Thanks for taking those punches, and rest assured, my mind share is with you.

I don’t care how much houses rise in Canada, I don’t ever want to jump in unless they climb down to realistic levels. I’d rather rent for now and buy elsewhere later ;-)

Actually, what I’d really like is to have a huge, balanced portfolio generating enough interest and dividends to pay yearly rental fees anywhere I want to live and then some ;-)

#30 What drives Brad Lamb on 03.03.15 at 7:50 pm

Its hopeless, he is a salesman. The best liar in the bunch, which makes him good at what he does:

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/video/drives-brad-lamb-194641919.html

Your best interest is far from his own interest. He wants you to be financially fearless or in other words grow some balls, or don’t think of large purchases logically.

That’s his best interest: a “fearless”, aka bullish, driven by emotion rather than logic consumer. That’s the best type of consumer there is for a salesman.

Garth, you are like the anti-Brad Lamb. Logic before blind emotion, and that’s probably why he reads and respects your views, but can’t support you on record because it would be a conflict of interest for him. He would probably hire you to do his investing but not his marketing.

#31 Someone credible... on 03.03.15 at 7:52 pm

“Canadian cities need to have an open debate about the risks and benefits of Chinese money — including “hot” funds brought in by corrupt officials — in Canada’s housing market, according to a former senior Harper government official.

The recommendation comes from David Mulroney, Canada’s ambassador to China from 2009-12 and a former senior foreign policy adviser to Prime Minister Stephen Harper.”

Someone credible commenting on the impact of foreign money and the need for more open debate on the subject. He certainly would have been privy to more information on the flows of capital than the real estate industry, bloggers, or the average joe.

What’s the harm in discussing the (potential) impact of foreign money, whether its American’s buying recreational properties in Whistler or Chinese buying up residential properties in Vancouver? That is the sign of an open, transparent, and accountable country.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/affordability/Former+ambassador+questions+Chinese+money/10856158/story.html

#32 The real deal on 03.03.15 at 7:53 pm

[quote]Any theories on how this 604 market slows down ? I see no negative feedback loop coming ……. I’m all ears![/quote]

Lol! How about soul crushing across the board global deflation. The insidious kind that creeps into your wage, portfolio, revenue streams and starts reducing them by 5% a year after year. Six more months, the median global economic condition will be deflation caused by demographic collapse. The last 80 years of inflation and the housing always goes up meme only happened because of constant year over year population gains. Go drag up the population pyramid for every country in the OECD and a lot of the non OECD and tell me what you see? Inverted pyramids are Duh-flationary. Don’t even get me started on employment figures moving into THE era of robotics, computers and artificial intelligence.

Six more months and Brad Lamb’s unmovable ‘Mind f**k’ meets the unstoppable and inevitable force called mathematics. Gonna be epic.

#33 Smoking Man on 03.03.15 at 7:54 pm

Now Sucks, slime sucking, bastards, the Toronto Real Estate Board. Just got this from a reality company, they use to send me nightly reports on what’s sold.

Now if I want to know what’s going down in my hood, I need to trust a Realtor.

No more, thay have been shut down… Here’s s the note in my email.
………

Good News and Bad News
Posted: 02 Mar 2015 07:31 PM PST
First the Bad News

The Toronto Homes Sold report has been distributed as an email linking to all residential listings reported sold on the Toronto Real Estate Board’s MLS® system since May of 2011.

During that time we have received countless expressions of appreciation from our growing list of subscribers now approaching 30,000. But in light of recent developments, we fear that making this information available to you, in this form, may be threatening our ability to continue operating as a real estate brokerage.

So we are temporarily suspending the email distribution of our Toronto Homes Sold report until there is more clarity in the legal issues involved.

We firmly believe that unfiltered information about the real estate market is necessary to fully inform home buyers and sellers. Others say that agents are necessary to “interpret” market information … we would use a different word.

But stay tuned … WE WILL BE BACK.

#34 Mark on 03.03.15 at 7:54 pm

“Given actual economic data, please explain why the BoC shouldn’t have purposely tanked the CAD to drive foreign exports?”

As if the BoC actually has control of the CAD$ and can alter its value. Remember John Crow in the late 1980s???

CAD$ was already in quite a weakening trend even before the BoC announced.

#35 yin yang mind shares on 03.03.15 at 7:55 pm

In an ideal world people would make enough money to have a house and decent investment by the time they retire, they should not have to pick one.

There is alarming army of people who don’t pick even one, they live from rent to rent, without investment. For them even hundred buck a week is out of reach to almost max out the TFSA.

Nobody has the appetite to explore this.
They fall out of any mind share. No yin yang for them.

#36 Andrewski on 03.03.15 at 7:55 pm

TREB continues to bully it’s Broker members…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/the-real-estate-beat/zoocasa-to-stop-publishing-home-sale-data/article23235249/

#37 MSM-free Zone on 03.03.15 at 7:56 pm

[quote]…Glancing around I saw a giant, long, resplendent marble-encrusted passageway, devoid of life….[/quote]

Sadly, such is the life of the majority of the world’s 1%’ers. In reality, they are no different that the average hoarder, surrounding themselves with a more upscale collection of useless and soon-to-be neglected material wealth. Obsessive Compulsive Disorder plays no favourites.

#38 Terrier on 03.03.15 at 7:57 pm

Garth, I admire your effort and energy but you can’t fix stupid. Hypnotized mob is now $1.53 trillion in debt … truly scary number. Btw, have you seen the latest news about CREA? Check it out

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/toronto-real-estate-board-demands-brokers-halt-online-sales-stats-1.2978746

#39 Cici on 03.03.15 at 8:00 pm

Ikes…here’s an example from the Financial Post of the madness we are dealing with:

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/03/03/almost-all-our-wealth-is-in-real-estate-rising-interest-rates-could-devastate-retirement/

#40 3s on 03.03.15 at 8:02 pm

Hormegeddon written by Bill Bonner is an excellent read on how insiders, like Brad Lamb, zombify the rest of the economy until it all implodes….

Worthwhile read on the predictability of the human condition….

#41 nonplused on 03.03.15 at 8:06 pm

Well I guess everyone has to be honest when their junk is out.

I’m sold on the balance thing but still don’t understand how to get to $4 million in assets they say one needs to retire these days. I guess that’s based on a 2.5% rate of return and no capital withdrawals, but still. I think retirement is a myth, unless you work for the government or are fairly wealthy.

#42 Julia on 03.03.15 at 8:10 pm

One of the proposed condos next to my rental building here in central Toronto has switched to become rental, no other changes to the plan. I understand this is not the only new condo development shifting to rental. The writing is on the drywall.

#43 Ralph Cramdown on 03.03.15 at 8:10 pm

#23 Londoner — “Come on Garth, tell us why you think the rate cut was a mistake.”

Garth has better DSGE models than the Bank of Canada, he gets timelier, better economic data than the Bank of Canada, and most of his Amazons have PhDs in economics. Do not question the man behind the curtain!

#44 Nicolas on 03.03.15 at 8:12 pm

Mark and Anne’s story reminds me of this post on Mr Money Moustache’s blog, a financial site not unlike this one, but without the testosterone drenched humour and the funny pics.

What it Feels Like to Become Rich
http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/08/16/what-it-feels-like-to-become-rich/

#45 Mr. Reality on 03.03.15 at 8:17 pm

” #6 Millenial-falcon (the original) on 03.03.15 at 7:11 pm

Garth,
I can totally relate to the writer, in the same boat .
No one saw the oil patch coming and your are right there but what kinda shock can derail freight train 416/604
Especially 604 , it’s a diversified economy and when trying to think of a housing market threat. Only 2 things come up
1. We run out of New buyers
2. Rates go up ( not happening )

Any theories on how this 604 market slows down ? I see no negative feedback loop coming ……. I’m all ears”

The answer is – Fear of Losing Money. Liquidation of houses will happen when people realize that owning a home no longer is “profitable”. This will happen after the blow off top which Vancouver seems to be experiencing right now price wise. It always ends, just takes longer than anyone can predict.

Mr. R

Mr. Reality

#46 Sue on 03.03.15 at 8:19 pm

“Just marketing” makes it sound inoffensive.

In reality, we all know that billions are spent on marketing and advertising. Many of the best minds and talents are engaged in how to trick people into whatever cunning scheme is currently fashionable to part our fellows from their money.

Here it’s still property loans. In the U.S. it is car loans, Wells Fargo are getting cold feet:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/02/business/dealbook/wells-fargo-puts-a-ceiling-on-subprime-auto-loans.html?_r=0

#47 April. on 03.03.15 at 8:21 pm

You must be a threat or they wouldn’t have needed to sandbag you in the holy precincts.

#48 Julia on 03.03.15 at 8:22 pm

Speaking of Made in China and laundering… http://www.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1729003/bc-casinos-court-chinas-high-rollers-its-realtors-who-gamble-money

#49 Londoner on 03.03.15 at 8:23 pm

“As if the BoC actually has control of the CAD$ and can alter its value. Remember John Crow in the late 1980s???

CAD$ was already in quite a weakening trend even before the BoC announced.”

Yes it does and yes it can. Foreign exchange is a function of interest rates. CAD was weakening against other ccys, not just USD, because a rate cut was already implied in the discount curve.

#50 OttawaMike on 03.03.15 at 8:24 pm

I received a hand written note in my mailbox today with a cell number and a couples name asking to buy my house cash.

Hmm, seems odd when Ottawa has 10,000 listings but my urban ghetto Carlington area is holding up well with nothing lingering too long.

#51 Bobs ur uncle on 03.03.15 at 8:26 pm

#17 Happy Renting

My portfolio isn’t earning more than me quite yet, but thinking about it, I just realized it could easily cover my rent going forward if I ever decide to flip the bird to my employers. Happy thought. Thanks for that.

#52 Victor V on 03.03.15 at 8:28 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/02/08/members-only-clubs-what-is-the-price-of-belonging/

“If you’re going to join an exclusive club, you do it because it doesn’t phase your budget,” says Fabio Campanella, a Toronto accountant who has clients who are members of various private clubs. “Some of [my clients] still have mortgages and they’re spending $1,000 a month for club fees. Why don’t you just pay your mortgage off? If you have a pot of money and your house is paid off and you have no debt, spend $1,000 or $2,000 on the membership.”

“If you love going, if you love playing tennis, and you truly enjoy it and you like going to the events that they have, put it in your entertainment budget,” he says. “If you’re going there to be part of a certain crowd, you’re an idiot.”

#53 OttawaMike on 03.03.15 at 8:29 pm

BTW: From my experience, trolling Brad on his twitter account is fun and easy. He never moderates his replies.

Oh.
Never mind , he finally blocked me. Even Donald Trump doesn’t do that.

Keep it classy dawgs:
https://twitter.com/bradjlamb

#54 Mark on 03.03.15 at 8:30 pm

“What’s the harm in discussing the (potential) impact of foreign money, whether its American’s buying recreational properties in Whistler or Chinese buying up residential properties in Vancouver? That is the sign of an open, transparent, and accountable country. “

There’s nothing wrong with a discussion of such. But when all of the official data points to no meaningful foreign net inflows and price increases entirely the result of domestic leverage (or price decreases entirely due to a flat-lining of domestic leverage as we’ve seen in the past year or two, particularly in the CMHC subprime sector), it is just morally wrong for the RE sell-side to continually assert that foreign money is driving the Canadian market.

People shouldn’t be concerned with foreigners buying assets for top dollar. They should be concerned that, after a RE crash, foreigners swoop in and buy the nation’s assets for artificially depressed prices. For those who don’t like foreigners and have some inane fear of foreigners buying in Canada, they can take comfort in the fact that poor long-term returns are the likely outcome buying Canadian RE at elevated P/E multiples.

#55 Irish Stewart on 03.03.15 at 8:33 pm

I agree w/ Garth on housing principles, but I think the theories are not as accurate when you purchase in lesser inflated areas such as London and Windsor, ON.

#56 Millenial-falcon on 03.03.15 at 8:33 pm

#25 We The Sheeple on 03.03.15 at 7:37 pm
Millenial Falcon (the original)

You know what can derail the 604 in about 20 seconds?
The major earthquake that can happen at any moment as the whole region is overdue for one.

Cheers,

We The Sheeple
———————–
Your damn right bout that, I mean economic reasons though…….anybody?

#57 Linda on 03.03.15 at 8:35 pm

I heard mention about Canadians being in debt with the trillion word used. What I did not hear however was whether that debt was ‘just’ Canadian citizens debt all by its lonesome or whether that total included all the debt owed by the federal, provincial & municipal governments in Canada too. If not, ouch. By itself, the debt would be close to $44,000 for every, man, woman & child in Canada & maybe every moose, too. So hopefully it does include all government debt.

#58 Lillooet, BC on 03.03.15 at 8:36 pm

“We make decent money, have decent savings, live in one of the largest countries by land mass in the world – and yet we cannot afford to buy a house without severely risking our retirement. Absolute insanity.”

A very Toronto-centric point of view. They choose to live in Toronto. Homes are very affordable to many other parts of the country. The only insanity I see here is too many people wanting to live in downtown Toronto and too few people willing to venture into other parts of Canada. Therefore, supply/demand drives the price up to astronomical levels.

#59 Victor V on 03.03.15 at 8:37 pm

Between us we are pulling in $190k/yr. Our rent is 9% of that. We are debt-free and have a six-figure balanced investment portfolio. At current levels we are not willing to sacrifice our future by going all-in on a house.

You are living beneath your means and being too aggressive in your zeal to build wealth. Balance. Consider doubling or tripling what you pay in rent and you could be living in $1.5M – $2M property enjoying a much higher standard of living.

Garth rents a $2M home in North Toronto for $4,000/month.

Our family is also in a similar situation, being landlord-subsidized while living in a tier 1 neighborhood. We discovered some time ago that in the higher rent ranges, there are some great gems available for lease to quality tenants.

#60 Daisy Mae on 03.03.15 at 8:37 pm

“….There’s no one here, besides I’m a guest.” I entered blog mode. “So please get lost.”

*************

Boy, you take a lot of crap! But then…don’t we all?

#61 Millenial-falcon on 03.03.15 at 8:38 pm

#32 The real deal on 03.03.15 at 7:53 pm

Ima put you down for boomers retiring and downsizing, but as far as wages go we pulled the pin and decoupled from that car a long time ago.

#62 Mr.Hulot on 03.03.15 at 8:39 pm

Garth, I guess the former Canadian Ambassador to China is another racist like me.

“In his new book Middle Power, Middle Kingdom, which critically analyzes Canada’s relationship with China, Mulroney devotes a chapter to the impact of China’s emerging class of super-wealthy individuals who are buying up real estate, especially in Toronto and Vancouver.

And he floats some potentially controversial solutions to deal with the downside of foreign money, including a special tax on non-residents and a requirement that foreigners be allowed to invest only in newly constructed housing.

Mulroney challenges the notion advanced by some, especially in the real estate industry, who play down the role of foreign money in Canadian real estate prices.

“It’s hard to argue that investment from China isn’t having at least some impact on real estate markets in our biggest cities,” he writes.

#63 Vanecdotal on 03.03.15 at 8:40 pm

A (surprisingly) bearish gLowBall news article re: grim outlook on Canadian housing, with a special nod to Toronto & Vancouver’s massive condo inventory oversupply. Quite the departure from their usual bullish puff-piece RE Board press releases regurgitated verbatim by blogger interns as “News”. Refreshing! They are using the CREB’s mysterious “Benchmark price” Frankenumber, which means the reality of the state of the market is likely worse than the reporter presents.

“Unsold condos pile up in Toronto, hit 21-year high”

http://globalnews.ca/news/1860605/sturdy-as-a-house-of-cards-a-look-at-canadas-property-boom/

“Andrew has started warning his business graduates to carefully weigh the decision to take the plunge – even in markets so far unaffected by falling oil prices, like Toronto, as well as on relatively cheaper housing like condos. Let a landlord take the risk,” Andrew said. “I don’t particularly like the condo market in downtown Toronto right now. Personally, that’s a risk level I wouldn’t be comfortable with. And I would probably say that for Vancouver.”

Also: http://globalnews.ca/news/1846998/unsold-condos-pile-up-in-toronto-hit-21-year-high/

Check out the chart for Toronto new condo completions. Yikes.

“According to BMO economist Sal Guatieri, there were 10,368 condominiums completed by builders last month in Toronto – a record high. That’s a “whopping” eight times more than the average for the past decade, with only two other months coming even close to that total, in the spring of 2011 and summer of 2012. And even then, not that close.”

There are parallels to great swaths of suburban YVR re: massive condo/attached overbuilding. Outside the last remaining “hot speculation zones”, much of the rest of the local market is slowly but steadily declining and has been so for quite some time.

#64 Catalyst on 03.03.15 at 8:40 pm

The fact that a couple making $190K with 91% disposable income, saving large amounts of money for an early/comfortable retirement yet is “thoroughly depressed” about real estate, shows that the R/E cartel has already won the mindshare.

If you don’t own, you want to own. Why can’t this couple enjoy their successful careers and enjoy each other in their RENTED living accommodations.

Stop the house lust or your part of the problem.

And, thanks for trying to be the voice of reason Garth, I am sure it wasn’t an enviable task.

#65 Gracious A Dios on 03.03.15 at 8:42 pm

Thank God I’m in the 1%. I’d prefer to be in the .1% though. That’s where the money becomes really nuts. I’ve actually felt a bit poor at Sailing Week on certain occasions. Crazy to think.

#66 Vanecdotal on 03.03.15 at 8:51 pm

To the Brad Lamb’s of the world, (and asst’d sycophants), I say take my taxpayer $ out of the housing equation by ending CMHC backed-mortgages and let’s see how well your “mind share”-fueled business model works then…

Thanks for taking one for the team GT.

#67 Daisy Mae on 03.03.15 at 9:00 pm

“Hey Brad,” I said cautiously as I limped into the upscale men’s room after the event. He paused. Looked over at me. “I want you to know,” he said, “that I respect your view. It makes sense. But this is all about mind share. It’s just marketing.”

*************

Wow…..

#68 Vanecdotal on 03.03.15 at 9:02 pm

gLowBall asking for reader’s input re: RE Experts will Answer Your Questions on the Cdn Housing Market

Interesting interactive Q & A opportunity re: http://globalnews.ca/news/1854425/smart-money-do-you-have-questions-about-real-estate-ask-them-here/

Perhaps they could use some Dawg-ish input? If they actually publish anything other than a tightly curated Pro RE Puff Piece I will be highly surprised, but hey – you never know.

#69 Bottoms_Up on 03.03.15 at 9:02 pm

Thanks for the recap Garth, appreciated.

It’s always interesting when the media pumps out reports on Canadians having “increased their debt load”.

There is never any reasoning given for this. Such as being overcharged and overtaxed for just about everything. Did you see the article in the Globe about the 40-something that is barely making ends meet, 2 young kids and a daycare bill.

When housing and daycare bankrupts a nation, you know “this won’t end well”.

#70 devore on 03.03.15 at 9:09 pm

#50 Mike in the Okanagan

There is no guarantee you will earn 8%+ on your investments this year but you are guaranteed an after tax return of 3%+ by paying down your mortgage.

You know you’ve entered the economic twilight zone when people can’t tell the difference between interest paid (an expense) and interest earned (a gain). By the time you’ve paid off your mortgage, you’ve made about 2-3 times the purchase price in payments, depending on interest rate. That’s a loss. That’s how debt repayment works.

Are you also guaranteed a 29% after tax return by making minimum payment on your credit card balance? We’ve had this conversation less than a couple of weeks ago, you may want to review.

#71 Bottoms_Up on 03.03.15 at 9:09 pm

#32 The real deal on 03.03.15 at 7:53 pm
—————————————————–
Well in that case Canada stands to do well in the future, yearly immigration at roughly 1% plus babies equals a nice steady growth rate.

#72 OttawaMike on 03.03.15 at 9:11 pm

No electricity, Toronto citizen?

I work in utilities and can tell you this is a taste of things to come. Deregulation has caused untold corner cutting and cost savings to the Ontario power grid over the past 20 years.

That combined with aging infrastructure.

Protip: Buy a generator and keep it ready.

#73 Smoking Man on 03.03.15 at 9:12 pm

#22 Rob on 03.03.15 at 7:33 pm
Smoking Man. Don’t do the first thing! You’re the only poster on this blog that i like!
……
Thanks Rob, beilive your fan 41 unless I lost a few, that was an imposter, I do like his attention to detail. Phirst rather than First.

It feels really good screwing up the Queen’s English.. A demented form of protest, even though I’ve got nothing to protest.

Oh, anyone catch Bibi speech in Congress, the introduction..

Welcome Your Excellency…… WTF, so now this former appliance salesmen is now a King of Some kind.

He’s not even good lier, I’m jealous..

That’s how I should be welcomed every where I go.

Your Excellency, Dr. Smoking Man.

#74 ANON on 03.03.15 at 9:13 pm

When bubbles pop, the bewildering indignation of the debtors is only equalled by the stiff stupefaction of the creditors.
Smart people should know when to quit, especially since they have all the information right before their eyes. It looks increasingly likely that the “man-cave” tunnel guys are the truly smart ones in this mess…

#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.03.15 at 9:15 pm

Hmmmmm, Interesting that even Brad Lamb sees your point of view even if he wont admit it publicly.
“Its just marketing”.
He may live to regret those words if a real estate slide brings out the pitchfork and torch crowd.

#76 Whats wrong with people? on 03.03.15 at 9:16 pm

Can’t Mark and Anne read??? How many times have you already addressed those questions obviously they are too lazy to read your blog. I suggest they go out and buy right now so they aren’t priced out forever (mocking)!!! Garth you have to quit pandering to lazy entitled people!

#77 devore on 03.03.15 at 9:19 pm

“I want you to know,” he said, “that I respect your view. It makes sense. But this is all about mind share. It’s just marketing.”

Of course. He’s making hay while the sun shines. When it stops, he’ll go do something else. When the cycle turns, all these people will skulk back into the shadows, not a peep to be heard. “Nobody could have seen this coming”, right?

#78 Smoking Man on 03.03.15 at 9:23 pm

My last post , I used his pet name, dident know how to spell Nutandyahoo.

#79 devore on 03.03.15 at 9:28 pm

#52 Lillooet, BC

A very Toronto-centric point of view. They choose to live in Toronto. Homes are very affordable to many other parts of the country.

It’s employment-centric. They’re not making anywhere close to $190k Lillooet BC, at least not without a 3+ hour commute. That’s not a life. They’re comfortable now, secure, doing just fine, with their whole life ahead of them. Relative to local incomes, houses aren’t really affordable in any city where you can move to and find a decent job in a few days. What’s an engineer, accountant, salesman or bus driver supposed to do in a town of a 1000? Professionals and those with specialized skills go to where the most opportunities are.

#80 JSS on 03.03.15 at 9:29 pm

It’s been discussed regularly on this blog that too much money tied into one asset is not a great financial strategy. Ultimately, common sense is not common.

I say, if Canadians want to gamble their current and future cash flow paying down a house then go nuts. It’s their life and their money, so go possible it away. Most haven’t even thought of the cyclical maintenance on a house – new roof, new concrete driveway, new furnace, etc. The life cycle cost (total cost of ownership) can be astronomical on a house.

For those who want freedom, liberation, and rising cash flow will look at stocks, etfs etc. We do have some good stocks in Canada too. Just look at the banks in the last two weeks. Dividends went up. So has BCE, cn rail, emera, Telus, enbridge, etc.

If Canadians want a mortgage instead of cold hard cash every month or quarter, then hey – who are we to get in their way.

#81 Babblemaster on 03.03.15 at 9:30 pm

Brad is right! It is about brain washing and the pro RE crowd has won the hearts and minds of the masses.

Regarding Mark, it may appear that TO RE is ridiculously priced, but that is how it’s been planned with CMHC, insignificant rates, massive immigration, etc. His friends are probably right to jump because there’s no going back to the old days. So, might as well bite the bullet and jump in. Anyone who’s held out the last few years (ME), has lost out big.

#82 Syd Cixel on 03.03.15 at 9:30 pm

The “Guest Information” page at https://www.graniteclub.com/ clearly states, “Cellular devices may be used throughout the Club for emailing, texting and retrieving voicemails but not for voice communication.”

So there!

#83 TRT on 03.03.15 at 9:35 pm

Equifax releases report saying mortgage debt at record high.

Wow.

Lets hope it keeps rising….then the shock will be bigger.

In the new world, the only way to make money is via volatility!

Keep buying people!

#84 TRT on 03.03.15 at 9:36 pm

….and asset bubbles.

#85 Marco on 03.03.15 at 9:38 pm

Enjoyed the writing tonight Garth.

Mindshare:
1. (Marketing) the level of awareness in the minds of consumers that a particular product commands. Housing in Canada = all consuming awareness.

@Vanecdotal

I agree in regards to the CMHC. To think a taxpayer backed institution is an enabler to marketers and salesmen on high commissions. Yikes.

#86 Freedom First on 03.03.15 at 9:45 pm

Whether you end up with cirrhosis of the liver from drinking, lung cancer from smoking, or bankruptcy from making insane financial decisions like going all in on 1 financial asset, there is only you who is going to suffer. The numerous various peddlers of your eradication have no conscience and only care about the money. The reality and truth of the matter is that you are the only consumer protection you have. Choose wisely.

#87 ShawnG in TO on 03.03.15 at 9:52 pm

#54 Mark:

these are the thoughtful Mark comments i like.

spending inflated currency to buy inflated Canadian (well, 604 / 416+905) RE, it’s like nothing gained for them. i agree to that.

#73 nutandyahoo …

lol, you are killing me

#88 Medic on 03.03.15 at 9:54 pm

Granite Club cameras captured a Hummer nicking a couple of Beemers on the way out of the parking garage.

#89 Nemesis on 03.03.15 at 9:54 pm

#Yikes!… #What’sADogToDo?,Or… #FareTheeWell&… #GreenCardsForEveryOne!

“I watched an evil smirk snake across the lips of the organizer, publisher of a chain of high-end…” – HonGT

Well, Mark&Anne… sometimes there are options… it’s just that they involve travel…

For example, earlier this week a niche publisher of deocrative art – North America’s largest, actually – decided to fold it’s HeritageCanadian offices [& 60% of the HeadCount] in favour of new digs somewhere in OrbitalFrisco…

Those not axed were offered Cards&Relocation… None declined.

They’ll be missed… but I sincerely doubt that any of them will be harbouring regrets a year from now…

http://youtu.be/bch1_Ep5M1s

Well. There it is…. “Oh, Canada!”…

[NoteToRalph: Yikes! “BattleRoyale”? In a word… “Scary!”… May I proffer an alternative predator – in a thematically apropos role… initials MD… and by the way, considering our MagnanimousHost’s raking over the coals, it’s HighTime that he was treated to a WellDeserved [if altogether rare] HD Vs. CrotchRocket victory, wouldn’t you agree?… http://youtu.be/R7CbMBUNC6I ]

#90 Kaganovich on 03.03.15 at 9:55 pm

The obligatory Bill Hicks piece on marketers:https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MHCs3v_mFkM

#91 Marco on 03.03.15 at 9:55 pm

Should have wrote salespeople instead of salesmen.

#92 TRT on 03.03.15 at 9:57 pm

Garth,

With all due respect, this blog was like ‘assisted suicide’ because many people missed the run-up in house prices over the last decade. Those with no portfolios could have made lots of money in RE (zero down) as opposed to equities (they had no money to invest).

The important factor you neglected is monthly carrying cost (that’s what buyers look at) and foreign money/underground economy (which you ignore).

Nevertheless, That bubble is done now.

Now is the time to short Canada. Rates can’t go up here. Why?

1. Too much debt.

They are trying to kill the loonie but imports are getting expensive so the peasants might become vocal. They will kill it slowly…people will have less disposable income….slower economy.

Now add to that the baby boomers retiring. And young professionals leaving the country for greener pastures south of the border.

Boy, this is not going to end well at all.

#93 SWL1976 on 03.03.15 at 9:58 pm

You’re a brave soul and a sucker for punishment.

Rolling with that crowd sounds like puke in your mouth fun.

At least you knew what to expect, hollow core’s. I quite like living in a lesser region of the universe and reading this blog almost daily.

Thanks Garth

#94 Cow Man on 03.03.15 at 10:00 pm

Sir Garth:

How did that beating compare to getting thrown out of Creepy Uncle Stephen’s Caucasus? You certainly like being the under dog. Thanks for continuing to stand up for what is right and for the little guy.

#95 Piccaso on 03.03.15 at 10:03 pm

I’m a Legacy geek and looking for employment, but if I get a reply nowadays it’s these emails…

Thank you for your interest in Geek and for your application to the Service Technician position.

We have carefully considered your application and at this time we are pursuing candidates whose qualifications and experience more closely match our selection criteria.

We encourage you to keep your online profile and resume updated and regularly visit our http://www.geek.ca/careers page to explore future employment opportunities with us.

Thank you for making Geek your employer of choice.

I’m sure they look at your age and go “F$%&” this guy’s so old he should be dead.

I made it into what I thought was an interview on another tech job yesterday with a well known name, but it was just an IQ test.
Well I totally bombed on the very first question which was short term memory matching 16 numbers with 16 shapes and I had 2 minutes to study. Ya I’m old

I did okay on the math sequence type questions…
Which number best completes the sequence:
3 9 4 5 25 20 21 441 ? You have 1 minute… GO

The answer is 436

I finally sent an application into Home Hardware today to help people push carts to their cars for $10 an hour.

To think 10 years ago I was making $70 U.S. an hour and my phone was ringing off the wall, then Nortel died and LTE came along and left old Legacy geeks in the dust

#96 Washed Up Lawyer on 03.03.15 at 10:08 pm

Alberta is A GLASS HALF FULL

Optimism is off the charts at the 115th annual spring bull sale in Calgary.

http://calgaryherald.com/business/local-business/high-prices-and-high-spirits-expected-at-115th-calgary-bull-sale

Also, forget about tomorrow’s rate discussion from the BoC.

Mark down March 19 for the single most important bellwether of the Calgary economy. The annual Stampede chuckwagon tarp auction.

I am going long on pancake batter for this year’s Stampede breakfasts.

#97 Hot Albertan Money on 03.03.15 at 10:08 pm

I looked up and saw a dour woman with a gray jacket, gray hair and a gray face daggering me. “Stop what?” I asked, interrupting my call.

3 Shades of Gray? That’s hot

#98 Ronaldo on 03.03.15 at 10:11 pm

”Consider doubling or tripling what you pay in rent and you could be living in $1.5M – $2M property enjoying a much higher standard of living.”

I suppose if you have this need to impress others or if your ego requires you to do that it would be the thing to do. Nothing wrong with living beneath your means and redirecting the extra cash to other more important things.

#99 Millmech on 03.03.15 at 10:12 pm

#81
How have people lost out big time.I didn’t jump in,am balanced and diversified and in five years time I can leave my job and retire as my portfolio will be producing returns greater than my income.Had I bought I would be a slave to my house for another 20years,I’ll take the financial freedom any day.Being debt free and not having to work at fifty,Priceless.

#100 Naga on 03.03.15 at 10:13 pm

Garth – perhaps off topic but I thought it was a bit of fresh air listening to Jim Leach and Malcom Hamilton on retirement planning.

Over 80 % of Canadians fall in the category of earning $50,000 to $100000 per year.

So if a couple buys a house and has kids early (say 25 to 30 year old) and they are able to save 5% of their gross income they should have enough to retire on 50% of their pre-retirement gross income.

Anyone making less than $50k is better off not saving and will never be able to own and in retirement will do fine with CPP/AOS and GIS.

All those financial advisers are going to be pissed at these two….so much for 70% to 75% of pre-retirement income required.

BTW they both agree that an extended period of low interest rates will force policymakers to re-write pension and retirement policy….

Maybe it is time for Garth to start a blog on this model as low interest rates are here to stay (that is interest rates below long term average of 5%).

Naga

Why would you want to live on 50% of your income? Sounds depressing. — Garth

#101 Derek R on 03.03.15 at 10:15 pm

#57 Linda on 03.03.15 at 8:35 pm asked:
I heard mention about Canadians being in debt with the trillion word used. What I did not hear however was whether that debt was ‘just’ Canadian citizens debt all by its lonesome or whether that total included all the debt owed by the federal, provincial & municipal governments in Canada too. If not, ouch. By itself, the debt would be close to $44,000 for every, man, woman & child in Canada & maybe every moose, too. So hopefully it does include all government debt.

Sorry, Linda. That $1.53 trillion is just mortgage plus consumer debt. According to StatsCan, central government debt is $1.00 trillion on top of that.

#102 Smoking Man on 03.03.15 at 10:29 pm

#72 OttawaMike on 03.03.15 at 9:11 pm
No electricity, Toronto citizen?

I work in utilities and can tell you this is a taste of things to come. Deregulation has caused untold corner cutting and cost savings to the Ontario power grid over the past 20 years.

That combined with aging infrastructure.

Protip: Buy a generator and keep it ready
………. .

Power never goes out in Longbranch , even the ice storm last year. Full power the whole time…

This hood rocks.

#103 geogar on 03.03.15 at 10:36 pm

Kudos to you Garth.
I’m thinking these characters wish you would genuflect. As that of the brokerages in the news lately..

#104 Piccaso on 03.03.15 at 10:36 pm

I guess the message in #95 is for you young bucks in your prime.

The old comes faster than you think.

#105 let the lightshine on 03.03.15 at 10:39 pm

DELETED

#106 Larry from ON on 03.03.15 at 10:42 pm

Keep the faith, Mr. Turner.

#107 hohoho on 03.03.15 at 10:44 pm

> … a Hummer nicking a couple of Beemers on the way out of the parking garage …

don’t be a wuss … see 4m10s of
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDoRmT0iRic

#108 Saskatoonman on 03.03.15 at 10:45 pm

Apparently you should get into a home at any cost. I saw it on Saskatoon Global TV tonight, from experts. They said you can sell investments you have, use your RRSP, borrow against a car you may own or borrow against any assets and use it for a downpayment. You must get into a house a soon as possible so that your money isn’t going into someone else’s pocket. You are paying yourself.

#109 TurnerNation on 03.03.15 at 10:46 pm

#52 Victor V

Rent it. Friends with Bens or Events: Within past year I’ve been to Spoke Club maybe 5x including dinner, National Club 2x, Soho Club 2x. Not worth more than this.

#110 Hopeless | Realties.ca on 03.03.15 at 10:49 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/03/03/hopeless-2/ […]

#111 Sue on 03.03.15 at 10:52 pm

#95 Piccaso on 03.03.15 at 10:03 pm
“To think 10 years ago I was making $70 U.S. an hour and my phone was ringing off the wall, then Nortel died and LTE came along and left old Legacy geeks in the dust.”

If you had told me 20 years ago that Nortel would be dead, I wouldn’t have believed you. Bloody shame, although they were b*stards to compete against.

#112 Leo Trollstoy on 03.03.15 at 10:53 pm

If Mark and Anne’s friends in Toronto bought a 50 year old dilapidated, mouldy, tear down bung with pink bathrooms for $600k, it might be the one that I listed and sold last month! In 3 days! Muhahahaha ;)

#113 Mr.Hulot on 03.03.15 at 10:56 pm

re: Nutandyahoo

Watch it Smoking Man, you could be accused of being anti-semite here.

#114 Leo Trollstoy on 03.03.15 at 10:57 pm

What does a dog see when looking at a map of the U.S.?

50 shades of grey

#115 Your Eye Nil on 03.03.15 at 10:57 pm

Garth

Were the urinals made of granite there as well?

#116 Poutchli on 03.03.15 at 10:58 pm

“and yet we cannot afford to buy a house without severely risking our retirement.”

If you make 190k per year and have a solid pile of money invested for your retirement, and want a house… you should just buy one. You say there is risk to your retirement? Come on, buy an 800k townhouse at Bloor and Dufferin and you’ll have it paid off in 10 years. Sure in 3 years prices may be down, but in Toronto, it is not likely to fall enough to make it worth it and with the salary you are bringing…

You have the same disease as us: the rich person desire to buy value. You probably only buy stocks when they are cheap, and have therefore been hesitant to buy. Sometimes, you miss the ride (Dolarama stock, Co stellation, Couche-Tard). You can keep waiting and never get it at the price you want.

Now, if you want to buy in Ajax, Montreal, Calgary, then waiting is likely worth it.

If you want value, move to Orlando.

#117 Drill Baby Drill on 03.03.15 at 10:58 pm

That is the funniest photo in a long time.

#118 Leo Trollstoy on 03.03.15 at 11:03 pm

“I have one thing that these self-important individuals will never have.”

And what is that? (smirk)

“Enough.”

– John Bogle.

#119 Ontario's Left Coast on 03.03.15 at 11:05 pm

Great story, Garth… thanks very much for recounting this tale of absolute madness.

“Well, it was brutal. Cooper and Lamb tag-teamed me, arguing real estate is the only asset Canadians need, that dorks like me (actually just me) are responsible…

Just hilarious!!!

#120 Andrew Woburn on 03.03.15 at 11:06 pm

#58 Lillooet, BC on 03.03.15 at 8:36 pm
The only insanity I see here is too many people wanting to live in downtown Toronto and too few people willing to venture into other parts of Canada.
==================

That’s because downtown TO is so full of hip restaurants, clubs and boutiques that kids cycle past on the way home from work. It is just so cool to know all this will be theirs to afford once they have paid off the condo mortgage. What have you got in Lillooet? Tranquillity? Peace of mind? Affordable housing? How do you capture that in a selfie?

#121 The Fuzzy Camel on 03.03.15 at 11:12 pm

In the GTA, there is a genuine housing shortage, immigration is increasing demand. I have people begging to rent one of my apartments. Look on Kijiji, people begging and pleading for an affordable rental.

If interest rates go up, rental demand will explode. So will the derivatives market. My strategy is to have rental properties that cash flow positive, with 5% in, locked low @5 years, and use the equity to invest. ZIRP cannot end without blood in the street. 5% down is the best, strategic default and let CMHC eat it.

#122 604renter on 03.03.15 at 11:22 pm

Mark and Anne – you are not alone. In the minority yes, but not alone. And – you are doing the right thing. We were in the US during the great financial crisis. The same nonsense spewed out of people’s mouths just before the collapse. “it’ll never go down”, “Get in now before you aee priced out”, “its different here”. And where we were there was a ton of foreign money.
We all know what happened next.
I dont see a collapse on the same scale but it will not continue. It never does. Vancouver and Toronto are not ‘special’. Their turn will come.
As it stands today – we rent, have a six figure portfolio, and save 60,000 plus a year renting compared to owning.
Put that in your pipe Vancouverites

#123 Drill Baby Drill on 03.03.15 at 11:29 pm

“But this is all about mind share. It’s just marketing.”

Everything everywhere is marketing, these are very truthful words from Brad Lamb. However at some point you have to show your potential and existing clients that you have done due diligence and are looking out for your clients interests not trying to fleece them. Pun intended. That is the difference between a professional and a HACK.

#124 Andrew Woburn on 03.03.15 at 11:30 pm

How will 416/604 get hit. Maybe this.

“Only mass default will end the world’s addiction to debt”

“According to recent analysis by McKinsey Global Institute, global debt has increased to the tune of $57 trillion, or 17pc, since 2007, with little sign of a slowdown in sight. … The combined public sector debt of the G7 economies has grown by 40pc to around 120pc of GDP since the crisis began. … China’s total indebtedness has quadrupled since 2007 to $28 trillion, according to estimates by McKinsey. At 282pc of GDP, the debt burden is now bigger, relative to output, that the US.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/11448051/Only-mass-default-will-end-the-worlds-addiction-to-debt.html

#125 Kenchie on 03.03.15 at 11:34 pm

Garth,

I just received an email from Rennie Marketing Systems (Brad Lamb’s Vancouver equivalent, except with higher records) saying that they will give me a $10,000 bonus if I refer a new purchaser for an unit in “The Village on False Creek”. After being on sale for about 7.5 years, they still have “only” 18 units still unsold.

Talk about desperation in “One of Vancouver’s most sought-after neighbourhoods” (verbatim from the email).

#126 Smoking Man on 03.03.15 at 11:35 pm

#113 Mr.Hulot on 03.03.15 at 10:56 pm
re: Nutandyahoo

Watch it Smoking Man, you could be accused of being anti-semite here.
…..

Won’t be the first time, I’ll eat em alive. If there is one thing I hate more than teachers, it’s tribes, I’ll take on anyone speaking for a group.

Don’t matter what flag it flys..

Individuals rock, tribesmen losers.

#127 ken nahm on 03.03.15 at 11:38 pm

About 15 years ago I remember Sherry Cooper on BNN hysterically advocating Canada adopt the US dollar. She said the Canuck was on its way to .50 from the .65 area. Ironically she called the bottom of the Canadian dollar and by hiring on with Dominion Mortgage she has called the top of the Toronto real estate market.

#128 BG on 03.03.15 at 11:40 pm

#59 Victor V on 03.03.15 at 8:37 pm
“Between us we are pulling in $190k/yr. Our rent is 9% of that. We are debt-free and have a six-figure balanced investment portfolio. At current levels we are not willing to sacrifice our future by going all-in on a house.”

You are living beneath your means and being too aggressive in your zeal to build wealth. Balance. Consider doubling or tripling what you pay in rent and you could be living in $1.5M – $2M property enjoying a much higher standard of living.

*********************************************

Yeah guys, just slow down! You’re getting richer too fast!
Unhealthy.

More seriously, we don’t know how happy they are with their current housing.

#129 Johnny Tinhorn on 03.03.15 at 11:40 pm

that was my first submission. not sure if i did it correctly.

#130 BS on 03.03.15 at 11:49 pm

Mark 54

People shouldn’t be concerned with foreigners buying assets for top dollar.

Exactly. If it was true foreigners were buying up all our real estate at these massively inflated values we would have a massive wealth transfer from China to local Canadians (home owners who are selling). The locals would be paying off their remaining mortgages, investing the windfall of the bloated selling price and could rent at a fraction of the return on the money they invested. This would increase disposable income and help the overall economy. With this Canadian debt would be declining and the CAD would be rising with the massive amounts of CAD required to be bought by foreigners to buy these houses.

Of course the sad truth is mortgage debt along with other debt is rising in aggregate and the CAD is plummeting. Disposable income is declining not increasing. This proves Canadians are not selling to foreigners (or the ones that are turn around and buy again with more borrowed money) and foreign money is not flowing into Canada at any significant level.

I wish the HAM story was true. We would be in much better shape.

#131 Harbour on 03.03.15 at 11:58 pm

Hey the Leafs won

#132 Christopher Lackey on 03.04.15 at 12:08 am

Talk about walking into a hornet’s nest. Why would you put yourself through the ringer like that at your age?

The debt is staggering. I see it every day. Most people are in way over their heads. We don’t have to do the “ticking time bomb when rates rise” fear mongering. People are paying boatloads of interest and cashing out what meagre savings they have to try and stay afloat right now.

#133 Mukadi on 03.04.15 at 12:09 am

#124

The debt issue is even worst that what they show. The US unfunded liabilities alone were at $129 trillion last year. That’s not counted as debt in official publications since the government relies on the Ponzi scheme to pay it back – i guess in the next 1000 years!!! Now add on top of that the recognized debt of $17trillion for the federal government and almost $40trillion for states governments and you’re close to the reality…

#134 leslie on 03.04.15 at 12:11 am

Why cant a house be the bond or fixed income of the portfolio? rent (3500) a month .. when you pay 700k.. thats pretty good 5 percent income and not taxed

#135 SWL1976 on 03.04.15 at 12:14 am

#124 Andrew Woburn

How will 416/604 get hit. Maybe this.

“Only mass default will end the world’s addiction to debt”

————————–

I think the ultimate goal if they can pull in off will be a global electronic currency. This global debt bubble is bound to burst eventually and with a cashless society it would be much easier to keep the serf’s in line. Talk smack about the system your card gets shut off, no soup for you. There is a reason family farms have been and are being exiled. The rabbit hole is deep and they have actually laid out their plans for those who care to see…

Now can they pull it off???

Like SM says, the machine is freaking out right now and losing control.

The ball is still in our court folks, let’s not let this opportunity slip to make some positive change

#136 Mark on 03.04.15 at 12:16 am

“About 15 years ago I remember Sherry Cooper on BNN hysterically advocating Canada adopt the US dollar.”

Yeah, haha, I heard of that. But to keep your comments “accurate”, technically it was “ROBtv”, was it not, at the time? The BNN moniker didn’t come until later.

#137 Joe2.0 on 03.04.15 at 12:19 am

Garth’s glimpse behind the curtain.
It’s all about marketing, they work alongside the banks the press and the politicians.
Highly paid skilled people manipulating and dictating trends.
The sheeple don’t have a chance.

#138 Mark on 03.04.15 at 12:19 am

” People are paying boatloads of interest and cashing out what meagre savings they have to try and stay afloat right now.”

Indeed. How many billions have listed firms thrown at TSX-listed stocks for buybacks, yet the market barely has even to meet its levels of 7 years ago? There’s got to be an awful lot of selling going on because share counts have been stable to falling for much of the past decade, and something must be dumping a lot of shares into the market.

Even pension funds have gotten in on the selling, chasing the latest bubbles du jour in the bond, RE, and private equity markets.

#139 Drill Baby Drill on 03.04.15 at 12:24 am

What is sad is that most people do realize that the RE top is very near in Hogtown and Moldtown. You do not need to read this pathetic blog nor listen to a sleeze ball condo shyster in order to see this is not going to end well. It is akin to a game of musical chairs “greaterfool theory” when the music stops someone is left without a chair or holding the bag. This blog just makes it easier to visualize and back up your natural suspicions.

#140 Andrew Woburn on 03.04.15 at 12:29 am

We have had a fair amount of anxious comments over the last few months about the prospect of bank bail-ins. Garth has pointed out that Canada is about the last place where this is likely to occur and I would have to agree. However Austria has just had a first case and it is likely to be followed by others in Europe.

QUOTE

“The government won’t waste another euro of taxpayer money on Heta,” he said, insisting that there must be an end to moral hazard. The Hypo affair has already cost taxpayers €5.5bn. The Austrian state has said it will cover €1bn of its own guarantees “on the nail” but nothing more.

Sources in Vienna suggested that even senior bondholders are likely to face a 50pc writedown, becoming the first victims of the eurozone’s tough new “bail-in” rules for creditors. These rules are already in force in Germany and Austria, and will be mandatory everywhere next year.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11447805/Eurozone-faces-first-regional-bankruptcy-as-debt-debacle-stalks-Austrias-Carinthia.html

I see no need to panic. If events like this help rein in reckless lending, it will be good in the longer term. Bankers around the developed world are finding their profits hit by the increasing amount of capital they are now required to hold so the flip side of the coin is that banks are slowly getting stronger. For most Canadians, following a simple strategy of spreading their bank deposits between institutions is enough. Of course, investing the cash in a balanced portfolio is even better.

#141 Kenchie on 03.04.15 at 12:32 am

#113 Mr.Hulot on 03.03.15 at 10:56 pm
“re: Nutandyahoo

Watch it Smoking Man, you could be accused of being anti-semite here.”

Wrong. Insulting an individual is not the same as insulting a race. Particularly, when a politician that doesn’t have an approval rating above 50% in his own country.

http://qz.com/354838/americans-may-like-binyamin-netanyahu-more-than-israelis-do/

#142 Happy Renting on 03.04.15 at 12:33 am

#95 Piccaso on 03.03.15 at 10:03 pm

Hey Piccaso, sorry to hear that travelling gig is over (you did have some interesting stories from the places you visited) and that things are not looking up. Don’t give up, job searching is usually unenjoyable but you have skills that can be transferred to something else if needed, keep at it, cast your net a little wider and be creative. And thanks for warning others to be aware that the good times may not last forever.

#143 Doug in London on 03.04.15 at 12:38 am

I mentioned, in my comment on the Balance topic of March 2, that 6 years ago stocks were at dirt cheap prices. This week is another anniversary, namely when the NASDAQ Index (which after the tech wreck became the NauseateDAQ) 15 years ago got up to 5000. Looks kind of like the bloated house prices in Toronto and Vancouver right now, doesn’t it? Oh, before signing off I should also remind you the NASDAQ took all of 15 years to finally get back up to that all time high of 5000.

#144 Oil Is Sticky on 03.04.15 at 12:42 am

I think the ultimate goal if they can pull in off will be a global electronic currency. This global debt bubble is bound to burst eventually and with a cashless society it would be much easier to keep the serf’s in line. Talk smack about the system your card gets shut off, no soup for you. There is a reason family farms have been and are being exiled. The rabbit hole is deep and they have actually laid out their plans for those who care to see…

Now can they pull it off???

Like SM says, the machine is freaking out right now and losing control.

The ball is still in our court folks, let’s not let this opportunity slip to make some positive change

——-

What are you talking about bro? 97% of our money is already electronic. How is that going?

The only way we are going to get out of this is if people launch a very LARGE campaign of civil disobedience with such things as bitcoin, buying from small business/local business, home made food (not corporate poison), stop paying taxes (en masse), you dont need an iphone or H&M junk from China or Starbucks or Cable TV the list can go on for a while.

And this is happening. Millennials are NOT going to McDonalds, less and less people are buying iphones, jobs are moving back utilizing technology etc etc.

I guess it was a good run for the corrupt govt and their industrialist masters……but now we’re here to take it back.

#145 Happy Renting on 03.04.15 at 12:43 am

Oh, and about today’s post, Garth: even funnier than usual. The LOL parts are much appreciated after a rough day.

Thanks for being the voice of reason. Though the event was rigged, you never know who was listening and had a light bulb go on.

#146 Finland is FINNISH on 03.04.15 at 12:52 am

“I’m a Legacy geek and looking for employment, but if I get a reply nowadays it’s these emails…”

My financial planner couldn’t understand why I wanted a plan that assumed retirement in my early 50s.

It’s not that I necessarily WANT to. It’s that in my field, I may HAVE to.

#147 young & foolish on 03.04.15 at 12:59 am

People seem to be carrying tons of consumer debt and failing to top up their retirement accounts, probably because they have little money left over after basic necessities. Well paying jobs are had to find. So, what to do? What can you invest in with what little money you do have? RE, of course. It’s why people continue to bye.
Right or wrong, it’s what I hear from people all the time.

#148 stage1dave on 03.04.15 at 1:05 am

As a sometimes-vintage t shirt collector, that’s a cool tag, & one I’ve never seen before; have to keep my eyes open for it…haha

Geez Garth, sounds like you shoulda morphed into “blog mode” when participating in the round table discussion. Even if you are downplaying your debating techniques, there’s nothing wrong with an offensive defence…

Like when you waltz in to buy smokes after breakfast & find out the ruling politboro in AB has arbitrairily raised the price $1 a pack…& the clerk launches in to a mildly reproachful speech about how it’s a terrible habit & you shouldn’t be doing it anyway…and I gently suggest that if I needed advice about my health, I wouldn’t be seeking it, unsolicited, from someone who was bordering on being morbidly obese…

“lose some weight” would have been perhaps a cruel reply, but would have made for a shorter conversation.

Mornings are not one of my strong points anyway, but sometimes there’s no point in being nice, y’know?

I always remember how few guys followed Wendel Clark into a corner after his rookie season…nuthin’ wrong with givin’ yerself some skatin’ room!

#149 Andrew Woburn on 03.04.15 at 1:07 am

#133 Mukadi on 03.04.15 at 12:09 am
#124

The debt issue is even worst that what they show. The US unfunded liabilities alone were at $129 trillion last year. That’s not counted as debt in official publications since the government relies on the Ponzi scheme to pay it back – i guess in the next 1000 years!!!
===============

Although I agree that US unfunded liabilities are a problem, and by some estimates could be as much as $200 trillion, these are not amounts due and payable today but over 30-40 years. The US economy is around $20 trillion to put this in perspective so an $18 trillion debt is high but not necessarily overwhelming.

It would be misleading to see these numbers as “proof” the US is bankrupt. What it means to me is that a substantial portion of these unfunded liabilities will never be paid, whether it be from capping of benefits or intentionally inflating away their “real” value. It is also impossible to say what impact technology will have on the US financial position over that long a timeline.

#150 chapter 9 on 03.04.15 at 1:12 am

#57 Linda
“Total included all the debt owed by federal,provincial & municipal governments in Canada too”

Nope
The total liabilities for all three levels of government which includes net debt,unfunded liabilities,contingent liabilities,debt guarantees=$4.1 trillion. The interest payments on the net debt alone for 2013/14 was $61.7 billion. And interest rates are at an all time low!!

#151 Timmy on 03.04.15 at 1:19 am

DELETED

#152 balanced portfolio on 03.04.15 at 1:23 am

“Why cant a house be the bond or fixed income of the portfolio? ”

I think it totally can.

It needs income level that can provide for the rest of the portfolio, too – and it does not get exhausted with the house alone.

The problem is that most people can’t afford to have both of it at the same time and they chose the house.

Garth says they should chose the portfolio not the house.

I don’t know Garth’s views on the house being part of the portfolio, instead of the similar sector in ETF, assuming you still have enough to invest properly in the rest of the BALANCED portfolio.

Of course, I don’t speak for him – just picking up the pieces.

#153 Vanecdotal on 03.04.15 at 1:25 am

#132 Christopher Lackey

“The debt is staggering. I see it every day. Most people are in way over their heads.”

+ 1

Yep. Talking to my friends in the brokerage biz this scenario is pretty much the typical “new normal” for a LOT of those who both live and work locally, and bought RE in the last 5 years or so. I’ve also witnessed this multiple times personally in my peer group. To the extent that anyone making 6 figures, even with a ton of debt and HIGH expenses is even now considered Super Creditworthy, but only IF they have a long and stable employment history, That said, they are now relentlessly tightening, slowly but surely. This is not isolated.

Multiple mortgage re-fi’s. HELOCs maxed. Credit cards maxxed. Everyone’s rolling the consumer debt onto HELOCs, counting on continued annual price appreciation in their home. Then, when there’s no more room there, increase the credit limit on the cards. Except the music’s already stopped in some cases. Trapped in their current home (that they can’t actually afford), as they WILL NOT re-qualify for a new mortgage on another home if they sell now. They are priced out of even a lateral or downward move locally. This entire ponzi scheme that’s been held aloft by kicking the debt can down the road is now in clear view of the dead end. The credit well is almost dry for many. Then what happens?

This is a contributing factor to the “supply squeeze” in certain YVR markets happening imho. Sure as hell isn’t sustainable for much longer. A rate hike is quickly becoming irrelevant. CREDITWORTHINESS as incomes stagnate, taxes, necessities, and housing costs continue to climb relentlessly appears to be the final nail in the coffin so to speak.

This doesn’t require layoffs, tanking oil prices, immigration reform, CRA policy changes, waves of Boomers downsizing, or any other black swan event to move the market. I truly believe it will ultimately be lack of creditworthiness in coming years that will be the primary downside influence in local markets. Everything else would be “gravy”. Sad.

#154 DisgustMadeMePost on 03.04.15 at 1:37 am

On the topic of piling on debt, Christine Hughes of Otterwood comments on the next big crisis: The short supply of US dollars. An incredible 7 Trillion in US dollar denominated debt has neither the borrower nor lender as a US resident. In the video Ms Hughes goes over the significance of this point. It’s interesting as her scenario winds up seeing an easing of policy versus a tightening. At least that’s what I made out.

Also of great note is her explanation of oil storage capacity and the next watershed for oil prices.

http://www.otterwoodcapital.com/blog/

Fear US dollar strength.

#155 disappointed Volcan on 03.04.15 at 1:57 am

I will just leave this here. As usual British TV lays it on the line.

How to win the losers game.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SwkjqGd8NC4

#156 Vanecdotal on 03.04.15 at 2:04 am

I feel that once the federal election is over, whoever is in power will be fiddling with CMHC rules almost immediately. If the Cons hang on by their toe nails they can claim “austerity measures” and drop the hammer, or if we have a new Oligarch – ahem – PM, it’s easy to blame the previous regime for a terrible economy, etc. and forge ahead with your “New Economy” policies. Either way I strongly suspect TPTB will lower the CMHC insured limit again, and shortly after taking power.

Think what that would do to Van & TO housing prices, overnight. I could see them unwinding in steps, say dropping to $900k right after the election, then 6 mos. later $800k, etc. They would feel the need to attempt to engineer a “soft landing” to try to save face AND reduce the hit to the coffers (via CMHC), which is impossible to achieve this late in the game I believe.

Govn’t. will use every policy tool available to reduce taxpayer exposure via CMHC to bad loans WITHOUT having to admit there actually WAS the momma of all asset bubbles in the first place, created by their myopic losoe monetary policy. New CRA policy changes re: reporting rental income, and cracking down on illegal suites also likely avenues, imho. 2016’s going to be interesting.

#157 Vanecdotal on 03.04.15 at 2:06 am

Ahh, “losoe” should be “loose”, der.

#158 kommykim on 03.04.15 at 2:07 am

RE: #134 leslie on 03.04.15 at 12:11 am
Why cant a house be the bond or fixed income of the portfolio?

Because it’s price is not inversely correlated with equities. You cannot sell 10% of it to rebalance your portfolio. It is illiquid. It is not a bond. It is more like a residential REIT than anything else.

#159 Vanecdotal on 03.04.15 at 2:11 am

Apparently Smokingmanitis is contagious.

#160 james on 03.04.15 at 2:30 am

#59

“You are living beneath your means and being too aggressive in your zeal to build wealth. Balance.”

Good lord, that had to be one of the weirdest comments I have ever seen on here. It is so bizarre that I almost think it is satire.

I live well beneath my means. Modest home in very nice, amenable, walkable modest middle class neighbourhood. My yearly mortgage hit is 7% of my income. Much goes to savings and 401ks.

Just bought a Springfield XDM 5.25 9mm and Daniel Defense AR-15 last week, along with a few cases of ammo. Set me back a couple of grand. I didn’t notice it. Nor did I notice the 1500 bucks for a 3 day training course this weekend, or 5000 for a 2 week trip to Europe in May. I won’t even mention retirement contributions or investments.

Yessir, nothing like racking up the mortgage to the point where you have no disposable income. Pity fools like me who have so much disposable income that they can pretty much do as they please.

#161 Another Vancity Renter on 03.04.15 at 2:32 am

#6 Millenial-falcon (the original):
“Any theories on how this 604 market slows down ? I see no negative feedback loop coming ……. I’m all ears!”

Like it was for Calgary, the shock will probably be something that most never see coming, especially those with a vested interest in real estate. An earthquake, for instance.

#162 Mike in Toronto on 03.04.15 at 2:44 am

#116 Poutchli

It’s beyond “value” at current prices.

Renting, we can walk everywhere downtown, but we can’t afford to buy where we’re renting. If we bought a condo, we would be paying more in fees and interest than we currently pay in rent.

The “good” news for me is that my GF watched her family lose everything in the real estate crash of the early 90s, she forever associates home ownership with financial hardship, relationship problems and poverty.

It’s horrible what her family went through. It’s nice to not have to convince her of anything.

Her parents are doing okay now in community housing, lots of food in the fridge despite working physical jobs in their 70s and on the cusp of bankruptcy. They’ll be okay with bankruptcy, they don’t own anything.

#163 Babblemaster on 03.04.15 at 3:09 am

#99 Millmech

If your diversified portfolio did well, good for you. However, I find it hard to believe that it has done as well as TO RE. The reason being that RE purchases can be hugely leveraged, thanks to CMHC. Just consider what kind of return you would have had on a house that was purchased for $400,000 6 years ago with only 5% down when that house is now worth $800,000. A gain of $400,000 on only $20,000.

#164 JJ on 03.04.15 at 3:38 am

Abit off topic but equally “Hopeless” That tragic event from last year where the soldier was killed in Ottawa as well as his assailant, emotions ran high. I said expect to see a new bill trumped up to provide more powers to government and remove even more right to privacy; what happened? people crapped on me because they acted on EMOTIONS. Now we have this…

“On Friday, the Harper government tabled its much-anticipated anti-terrorism legislation designed to give Canadian security and intelligence services more powers and more flex from the RCMP.

If passed into law, changes would see the standard of evidence needed to obtain warrants lowered. Police would also be given authority to extend the amount of time they can detain someone without charge if that person is suspected to be involved in terrorist activity.”

quoted from an article on Huffingtonpost a very bill to remove more rights from you, detain you indefinitely just being a SUSPECT not Charged! Even you Garth Turner lambasted me during that time when I said expect to lose more freedoms going forward from one isolated incident…got to admit now I was bang on this one…

“I Said Good Day Sir!” `WWonka

#165 richard giggal on 03.04.15 at 3:48 am

Mr Turner:

> I’m in SE Asia again for a couple of years but at some point I’ll be back in Canada and ready to invest in N America again . I checked out the Granite club website just in case . You never know when I would like to join and give up my current membership in the Manila club and the Manila Polo club Both of which have many members in the Forbes list (OK I’m not on the list but friends are) . In the “Menu” section they have a ” bite to eat” Sorry, I won’t join a club that have ” bites to eat” on the menu. Nothwithstanding grey haired ladies wandering in the halls monitoring cell phone usage. .

#166 richard giggal on 03.04.15 at 4:15 am

Sincere apologies. My last post should read ” has” rather than “have” on the third line from the end. Almost as bad as ” bites to eat” on the blurb on the club I will not be joining.

#167 Nagraj on 03.04.15 at 5:48 am

Not all that long ago the PM said to an audience in New York, “There is no housing bubble in Canada.”
Very quickly the fed finmin corrected this PR stupidity: ” . . . haven;t found anything alarming, but we’re monitoring the situation closely.”
Shortly thereafter the CBC prominently featured somebody who said that house prices are 50% too high. (And he proffered Tulip Mania as an explanation.)
Finally we got the BoC gov saying that the overvaluation is 30%; he went on to add that the housing bubble didn’t spring up overnight.

Got gov’t? (as in Got milk?)

The whole point of leadership is to prevent home-made disasters like the great Canadian housing bubble, debt bubble, youth unemployment crisis.

I’m not even tangentially interested in the opinions of Brad Lamb.

Bad money drives out good money, stupid gov’t drives out good people.

#168 drydock on 03.04.15 at 6:12 am

#126 Smoking Man on 03.03.15 at 11:35 pm
Individuals rock, tribesmen losers.

Hear Hear.

#169 I'm stupid on 03.04.15 at 7:32 am

Is this our future?

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/is-canada-at-risk-of-a-balance-sheet-recession/

#170 Smoking Man on 03.04.15 at 8:15 am

Currency War 2.0
India just cut rates again. Make that 22 cuts in the last month, I think.

I’m Losing track..

#171 fancy_pants on 03.04.15 at 8:22 am

what could possibly go wrong?
http://www.timescolonist.com/sports/canadian-consumer-debt-including-mortgages-hits-1-53-trillion-equifax-1.1780621

#172 Julia on 03.04.15 at 8:53 am

Here’s progress. Not. http://au.ibtimes.com/toronto-real-estate-board-asked-realtors-stop-posting-online-sales-data-public-view-1426789

Just what the public needs from the industry. Less access to information.

#173 SWL1976 on 03.04.15 at 8:56 am

#144 Oil Is Sticky

I guess it was a good run for the corrupt govt and their industrialist masters……but now we’re here to take it back.

———————————

GOOD, I think we have a long way to go, but positive steps in the right direction are encouraging

#174 Realtor Logic on 03.04.15 at 9:02 am

The Toronto Maple Leafs are now on an EPIC away-from-home winning streak!!!!!

Therefore, Toronto real estate will go up and Up and UP UP UP this year and the next five!!!

(Just ask a realtor for the sales data to prove this – we are safeguarding the data now just for our best customers)

As well, Garth will LOSE all his hair – Brad Lamb will GROW BACK all of his!!!

Don’t fight these unstoppable trends folks :)

#175 Thoughts du jour on 03.04.15 at 9:12 am

There is a house similar to mine that went up for sale a few months ago. The asking price has dropped 5% since being listed and I still don’t see any buyer interest. I am certain the Calgary market value of my home is now considerably less than the 2015 property tax assessed value. I can only see further declining value for me. I won’t be hurt if my house value declines 50% or more but it will be an opportunity lost.
I would be totally OK with that if my property taxes were to decline by the same percentage – fat chance!
Apparently, Canada’s success depends on a strong, healthy public service directed by elites. This picture is driving me into the Libertarian political camp. I think change to the status quo is overdue – it’s my personal bias that too much socialism is long term bad. QE and socialism are similar in the way they distort the discovery mechanism of life (prices if you are an economist).
Thoughts du jour – formally Westcdn

#176 JG on 03.04.15 at 9:13 am

People who make comments like this below just dont get it. I agree with having RE in a portfolio and agree that leverage CAN be a good thing if used properly. What Garth is saying, IMO, is that the RE market has gone mad, and you are increasing your RISK at the moment. There are better places to invest with less risk.
In your example you claim a gain of 400k, but you still have a debt of 400k. You only realize the gain if you sell , and you did not calculate the cost of receiving the 400k gain ( fees and carrying costs etc). The best thing to do if you double your money in RE in 6 years is to sell, invest the gain properly, and rent where your landlord will subsidize your rent by as much as 50% in some cases.
When all hell breaks loose and RE tanks, that would be the time to buy if you absolutely need to own RE. That is what “buy low sell high” really means. Not buy high and hope to sell higher.
I guess you could argue there is nothing wrong with your example, as people have made money in the current market. What is missing is most do not understand the level of risk. Many newbies in the market believe there is no risk. That is the real issue here…risk…they are led to believe there is little risk.

#163 Babblemaster on 03.04.15 at 3:09 am
#99 Millmech

If your diversified portfolio did well, good for you. However, I find it hard to believe that it has done as well as TO RE. The reason being that RE purchases can be hugely leveraged, thanks to CMHC. Just consider what kind of return you would have had on a house that was purchased for $400,000 6 years ago with only 5% down when that house is now worth $800,000. A gain of $400,000 on only $20,000.

#177 D on 03.04.15 at 9:23 am

Hold fast!!!!

I laughed out loud when they picked Sir Garth up with a spoon!

To the couple who emailed Garth, just imagine how much sweeter victory will be when the collapse does come! The longer this drags on the greater the glory.

Hold fast!!!!

#178 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.04.15 at 9:36 am

@#129 Tinhorn

Yer doin’ fine Tinhorn. Just remember to squeeze the trihttp://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&sqi=2&ved=0CCgQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.imdb.com%2Ftitle%2Ftt0075213%2F&ei=Fgr3VPDQJMjnoASivIDYBg&usg=AFQjCNEZdGaGscr6bccgyX0s3q9WxY09vQ&bvm=bv.87519884,d.cGUgger, dont yank it…….

#179 Condo Minion on 03.04.15 at 9:45 am

Stats out on Toronto:

http://www.thestar.com

#180 Frugal Gopher on 03.04.15 at 9:47 am

#59

What if they like the place they rent? If you’re living beneath your means and don’t feel like you’re sacrificing anything, there’s no point trying to mimick high spenders. Higher standard of living isn’t happiness, it’s just luxury.

#181 Dup on 03.04.15 at 9:58 am

It is about taking advantage of the sheep. He knows it, but is a coward to openly admit it.

#182 HD on 03.04.15 at 10:26 am

Why People “Fly from Facts”

“As public debate rages about issues like immunization, Obamacare, and same-sex marriage, many people try to use science to bolster their arguments. And since it’s becoming easier to test and establish facts—whether in physics, psychology, or policy—many have wondered why bias and polarization have not been defeated. When people are confronted with facts, such as the well-established safety of immunization, why do these facts seem to have so little effect?”

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-people-fly-from-facts/

Best,

HD

#183 tri state pat on 03.04.15 at 10:26 am

Light at the end of the urinal…..i fell off my chair laughing…

#184 Hol Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.04.15 at 10:27 am

Garth,
After leaving the club last night did you go home and take a shower? I’m sure you must have felt dirty after that evening.

#185 Hol Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.04.15 at 10:29 am

I knew this was coming, but oh how ugly it looks now. Lovely downtown condo for rent?

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/03/02/pension-funds-swoop-in-on-toronto-condo-towers-as-rental-market-heats-up/?__lsa=3bc7-c277

#186 Smoking Man on 03.04.15 at 10:30 am

Now the Polish Central Bank Just cut its rates. Race to the bottom.

Go Janet, I dare you to spike.

#187 Retired Boomer - WI on 03.04.15 at 10:31 am

Tonight’s story about Mark & Anne is the story of two rational people in a world deluded by the price of tulip bulbs.

The only difference is these tulip bulbs one can live in, or maybe rent.

Some people will refuse to pay the high price of tulip bulbs, others will pay the current rate.

It is an old story. Mark and Anne have money, and freedom therefore they have options, the ones with the new pink bathroom not so much.

I can tell you who I would prefer to emulate.

#188 Hol Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.04.15 at 10:35 am

#86 Freedom First on 03.03.15 at 9:45 pm

Whether you end up with cirrhosis of the liver from drinking, lung cancer from smoking, or bankruptcy from making insane financial decisions like going all in on 1 financial asset, there is only you who is going to suffer. The numerous various peddlers of your eradication have no conscience and only care about the money. The reality and truth of the matter is that you are the only consumer protection you have. Choose wisely.
___________________________________________
Are you sure you want to post this Smoking Man? Complex witty English only confuses him. He will have to consult the UCC or something similar.

#189 Hol Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.04.15 at 10:37 am

We have already lost our credibility! Too late!

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/03/03/david-rosenbergs-tough-words-for-bank-of-canada-boss-stephen-poloz-stop-sending-mixed-signals-or-risk-your-credibility/

#190 Hol Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.04.15 at 10:39 am

Semi-truth? That’s my new word of the day!

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/03/03/four-myths-about-canadian-household-debt-and-a-few-unpleasant-truths/

#191 CalgaryRocks on 03.04.15 at 10:41 am

#185 Hol Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.04.15 at 10:29 am
I knew this was coming, but oh how ugly it looks now. Lovely downtown condo for rent?

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/03/02/pension-funds-swoop-in-on-toronto-condo-towers-as-rental-market-heats-up/?__lsa=3bc7-c277

One more way that the millennial crowd of condo dwelling urbanites will be paying for the boomer pensions.

#192 Linda on 03.04.15 at 10:47 am

HD #182 – Why People “Fly From Facts”

You don’t have to look too far to see this problem. On this blog, there’s a sizeable cohort of idiots who deny climate change, suggest 911 was an inside job, etc…etc…

I feel sorry for them, but this kind of wilful idiocy is now infecting public life, politicians against vaccines, sex education, evolution, you name it.

At the end of the day, this contributes more and more to the growing class divides.

#193 JL on 03.04.15 at 11:04 am

#123 Drill Baby Drill

Brad Lamb doesn’t work with buyers, they aren’t his clients. His duty is to himself and his family and his shareholders/investors/builder clients if applicable.

#194 Millmech on 03.04.15 at 11:04 am

#179
My returns are real those are only real when and if it is sold.Most people will be too greedy to collect their winnings,just look at Calgary and Ft Mac a year ago the same line of thinking,”I can’t lose”, if oil stays low a lot of people are going to lose because of leverage.Most people when they do sell will just buy a more expensive place for the status,reminds me of a hamster on a wheel.I enjoy the feeling of control knowing I don’t have to work til I drop and can take part time or contact work as I want.Its freedom and you can’t put a price on it.

#195 bdy sktrn on 03.04.15 at 11:06 am

#187 Retired Boomer – WI on 03.04.15 at 10:31 am
Tonight’s story about Mark & Anne is the story of two rational people in a world deluded by the price of tulip bulbs.
———————-
tulips went from 0 to 100 then back to 0 within 4 months, with no mass media other than newspapers

van re has been bubbling for 40 years in the instant info age.

if you are waiting for a pop, maybe watch tesla instead.

#196 CalgaryRocks on 03.04.15 at 11:07 am

To think 10 years ago I was making $70 U.S. an hour and my phone was ringing off the wall, then Nortel died and LTE came along and left old Legacy geeks in the dust

Yeah that sucks but honestly, you need to update your skills. I am working with technology that barely existed 2 years ago, much less 10 years ago.

Learn something that’s hot and that interests you, work on a couple of pro-bono projects or build something for your self and put it out there live.

Take a look at DevOps, which is basically supporting cloud deployment. It’s extremely hot right now. Try to build something generic enough that it can be reused. So you don’t have to work for one company, you can help many by reselling them the same thing over and over.

Optimize your LinkedIn with the above. People will find you if they need your skills.

#197 young & foolish on 03.04.15 at 11:10 am

“You know you’ve entered the economic twilight zone when people can’t tell the difference between interest paid (an expense) and interest earned (a gain). By the time you’ve paid off your mortgage, you’ve made about 2-3 times the purchase price in payments, depending on interest rate. That’s a loss. That’s how debt repayment works.”

Hmmm … I am having some trouble with this one. Please help me understand. If you’ve paid off your mortgage, I assume you have equity which has probably appreciated significantly over time in your property. You can sell it tax-free. Your costs in paying interest have been off-set by the inflation of RE price appreciation.

Some posters will complain that house prices will go down, and you will be a loser. But over a long period of time, and given an average 2-3% inflation rate, I doubt it.

#198 Broke Dick on 03.04.15 at 11:14 am

Why would you want to live on 50% of your income? Sounds depressing. — Garth –

Did you hear that Mark and Anne? Did ya?
Start spending and stop being so depressed.

The reference was to retirement. Take that broke thing out of your ear. — Garth

#199 bdy sktrn on 03.04.15 at 11:16 am

192 Linda on 03.04.15 at 10:47 am
HD #182 – Why People “Fly From Facts”

deny climate change…
——————————–
the biggest deniers are those of us who understand physics/energy/heat transfer/fluid mechanics etc. –

we are the ONLY ones equipped to see that the ‘facts’ laid out by the ipcc are not exactly facts, but wild careless speculation.

100bux says you have no sci background- just like most of the gore-bot alarmists out there who couldn’t tell a kilowatt from a kitchen knife.

for people like you, i make sure to idle the wife’s car 20 min on cold mornings so it’s nice and warm for her.

#200 young & foolish on 03.04.15 at 11:17 am

” …. where your landlord will subsidize your rent by as much as 50% in some cases.”

Ah yes, the “landlord will subsidize you” meme …. it’s become all too common on this blog. It’s almost as silly as “prices will always go up” and believing “balanced and diversified” will make you rich.

#201 Mark on 03.04.15 at 11:17 am

So the BoC held. Which didn’t come as a surprise to many. What was interesting was that basically they acknowledged the preconditions for another rate cut (“inflation … continues to be temporarily boosted….”), but then came with up with some cockamamie story of a cyclical rotation actually occurring towards other sectors for growth. Which has very weak support in the evidence.

Still figure they’ll be back with another -25bp in April.

#202 Londoner on 03.04.15 at 11:24 am

“Breaking: BoC holds rates. (Of course.)”

Why “of course”? I thought you said it was a mistake. Or is that just the opinion of mainstream economists?

Because (of course) the last move was a mistake, now realized. — Garth

#203 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.04.15 at 11:26 am

BOC how long will that last before they kill the $?
Oh well pigs can fly!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peRgoQWpofM

#204 Rick on 03.04.15 at 11:26 am

Anne and Mark’s letter and today’s blog remind me of theatre of the absurd play by Ionesco, Rhinocéros, where main character watches his friends turning into rhinoceroses one by one until he alone stands unchanged against an insane mass movement.

#205 bdy sktrn on 03.04.15 at 11:31 am

10M barrels added!

sell energy!

#206 ALBERTASTROPHE on 03.04.15 at 11:42 am

So Poloz does nothing today. Is this action?

Reminds me of the moment after the deer has stepped onto the highway, realized what it just did as it stares into the oncoming headlights.

And….

http://www.theglobeandmail.com

Front page today, “Alberta Premier warns deeps cuts necessary to avoid fiscal ruin”

He even wants to re-open all public sector contracts to cut back on salaries, he says.

The beginning of the end of thirty years of monumental economic incompetence by Conservatives.

It is such a puzzle, why it is that ALL conservatives are such ruinous, meddlesome financial nitwits.

Reagan – complete idiot, already had brain issues when in office, raised debts

Mulroney – pumped up national debts in spite of a new tax, corrected slowly by the Liberals when they came in

Harper – a dubious background in ‘economics’ has lead this moron, with his stupid minions Flaherty and Oliver to put us deeply into debt and compromise everything with a credit bubble that threatens the entire country

Everyone in Alberta (Peter Lougheed was the one bright note) for the last forty years – completely stupid, spineless leaders leading the dumbest, most indebted populace in the country

Everyone else – don’t let your daughter marry an Albertan. IQ is substantially genetic.

#207 LP on 03.04.15 at 11:44 am

#132 Christopher Lackey on 03.04.15 at 12:08 am
Talk about walking into a hornet’s nest. Why would you put yourself through the ringer like that at your age?
*********************
Listen-up whippersnapper. I’m almost certain Garth is a couple or three years younger than me, and I’m just hitting my stride.

It’s a wonder he didn’t strip the skin off your bones with one of his patented comebacks for a comment like that.

I was busy in the gym working on my sixpack. — Garth

#208 CalgaryRocks on 03.04.15 at 11:47 am

#200 young & foolish on 03.04.15 at 11:17 am
” …. where your landlord will subsidize your rent by as much as 50% in some cases.”

Ah yes, the “landlord will subsidize you” meme …. it’s become all too common on this blog. It’s almost as silly as “prices will always go up” and believing “balanced and diversified” will make you rich.

For example, in New York, renters subsidize owners as they pay a much higher property tax rate on their s*itty rentals.

http://www.businessinsider.com/if-you-live-in-new-york-and-you-rent-youre-paying-a-huge-tax-you-dont-even-know-about-2013-6

In fact, on the Upper West Side, they literally hide listings so that renters have no choice but to deal with a broker and pay him/her at least 1 month rent in fees and sometimes up to 18% of the yearly rent.

#209 Hot Albertan Money on 03.04.15 at 11:59 am

To everyone saying your landlord subsidizes your rent…true. But do you ever stop to think that your subsidizing them too?

#210 cramar on 03.04.15 at 12:05 pm

To Garth:

I suggest a new tactic. A level playing field, and an audience of average middle-class people. For example, a TV debate for a normal audience, with one other person to take the Brad Lamb view. After all, you are trying to warn the average person. An exclusive club of the rich with millionaire RE panelists is like arguing for a vegan lifestyle in a lion’s den! Look for opportunities to get on national media to promote the message.

To Mark & Ann:

You’re feeling the seduction of the Dark Side of the Force! Right now, you are in total control of your life and your future. Constantly remind yourself that if you give in to the Dark Side like your friend, you are giving up control of your future for a handful of beads.

#211 Drill Baby Drill on 03.04.15 at 12:05 pm

#193 JL
Lamb is a condo salesman period.

#212 Daisy Mae on 03.04.15 at 12:07 pm

“….I felt like a nubile, helpless virgin stretched across the sacrificial alter, which was briefly arousing. Then I was pummeled some more. After three hours, Club staff had to collect me with spoons.”

***************************

Yeah….I bet. YOU are priceless! LOL It’s 8am in the West and you’ve exceeded 200 posts already. Getting quite a reaction.

Thanks for always pummeling us with the facts and the truth.

#213 Hot Albertan Money on 03.04.15 at 12:09 pm

Dear Mark and Anne in Toronto…Read the freaking blog. It’s chock full of stories like yours from people like you.

Are you guys just fishing for compliments here, because you’re litteraly preaching to the choir.

#214 For those about to flop... on 03.04.15 at 12:12 pm

#198 Broke Dick on 03.04.15 at 11:14 am
Why would you want to live on 50% of your income? Sounds depressing. — Garth –

Did you hear that Mark and Anne? Did ya?
Start spending and stop being so depressed.

The reference was to retirement. Take that broke thing out of your ear. — Garth
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

You are in fine form this week,keep it going I need a laugh.

#215 young & foolish on 03.04.15 at 12:19 pm

“The beginning of the end of thirty years of monumental economic incompetence by Conservatives.”

You’ve just got to wonder about this. Ever since Reagan, “conservatives” in the western world have run up massive debts to stimulate their economies (with most of the profits going toward the few). Then, at election time, they come around talking about balancing the budget and being fiscally responsible. Of course, voters lap it up and accept cuts to the few programs left in place for their benefit. Homer Simpson anyone?

Come to think of it, you can sell conservatives almost anything at all … like Creationism, and ludicrous ideas like the individual trumps the tribe (land of the free!). It’s why the 1%ers are always, a few steps ahead.

#216 Alberta is AWESOME on 03.04.15 at 12:26 pm

Debt free, youngest population in Canada, bountiful resources.
And best of all, we are rat free and commie free.

#217 Smoking Man on 03.04.15 at 12:37 pm

#192 Linda on 03.04.15 at 10:47 am
HD #182 – Why People “Fly From Facts”

You don’t have to look too far to see this problem. On this blog, there’s a sizeable cohort of idiots who deny climate change, suggest 911 was an inside job, etc…etc…

I feel sorry for them, but this kind of wilful idiocy is now infecting public life, politicians against vaccines, sex education, evolution, you name it.

At the end of the day, this contributes more and more to the growing class divides.
……….

Linda, right we’re all crackpots, let’s start a demolition company, we will study how an 80 story steel framed building came down at free fall speed, caused by a few fires as was documented in the NIST report.

In the 911 report re building 7 hey it wasn’t even hit with a plane.

Think of how much we can under cut the competition, a few judges of gas and a Zippo Lighter. We will be rich beyond our wildest dreams.

You In?

#218 Mike L on 03.04.15 at 12:41 pm

This just in from Calgary –

City of Calgary looking to expand secondary suites to ALL of city housing. Would add at least 35,000 additional properties, doubling current house rental inventory.

http://www.660news.com/2015/03/02/secondary-suites-talks-in-calgary/

With Alberta’s Death Watch on, this is quite an interesting move.

#219 Lorne on 03.04.15 at 1:02 pm

Foreign money not a problem in YVR?

http://www.theprovince.com/business/mortgages/Chinese+money+making+Vancouver+more+more+unaffordable/10858619/story.html

#220 bdy sktrn on 03.04.15 at 1:13 pm

still trucking in 604
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/real-estate-rush-vancouver-home-sales-prices-up-1.2262803

Vancouver’s red-hot real estate market showed no signs of cooling in February, which saw hikes in both homes sales and prices.
New figures from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver show the benchmark home price across the region reached $649,700, an increase of 6.4 per cent over the same period last year.
Single detached home prices in Vancouver also increased yet again, hitting $1,026,300.
The rising prices didn’t deter buyers, though. Last month recorded 3,061 residential property sales, a whopping 60 per cent hike over January and 21 per cent jump from February 2014.
The rush kept realtors busy but also proved frustrating for many prospective homeowners, who say bidding wars are becoming all too common.
Neil McIvor told CTV News he ended his six-month search for a home last week after losing three bidding wars in a row.
“Every one of them went above what the asking price was,” McIvor said. “It gets emotionally wearing.”
February’s sales were also up 20.2 per cent over the 10-year sales average for the month, according to the REBGV.

#221 Pre-Retiree on 03.04.15 at 1:19 pm

Garth, by accepting to participate to this debate, you unknowingly (or knowingly?) reinforced the other side’s arguments in my opinion.
Very much like the principle of the “repoussoir” whereas beautiful women hang out with ugly ones to enhance their beauty by comparison.
Best to avoid any association with these people. The crowd, judging from the location, obviously was self-selected to admire the B. Lamb approach. They are there to begin with because they are sheep who like each other’s company. OMG, now I sound like Smoking Man.

#222 Jeff on 03.04.15 at 1:26 pm

Garth,

You have a good confront to go as a sheep in a room full of wolves ready to tear yourself apart as you speak. Time will show you right.

#223 Pre-Retiree on 03.04.15 at 1:30 pm

Why would you want to live on 50% of your income? Sounds depressing. — Garth
_______________

Perhaps, but the truth is that once the kids have left the home, and all work-related expenses are gone, plus the cost of investing for your retirement, you really do not need as much money.

Agreed. If you do nothing. Is that what it’s about? Being cheap? — Garth

#224 Babblemaster on 03.04.15 at 1:30 pm

#176 JG

You say there is “RISK” and that risk is the real issue. Keep in mind though, that there was real risk several years ago as well. And that Garth has been warning about that risk for the last few years. However, those that mindlessly jumped in have done very well. How much longer will they continue to do well? I don’t know. No one does. What I do know, or believe strongly, is the the government will do everything they can to reduce losses. They will reduce rates. They will force banks to forgive mortgages. They will introduce buyer incentives, etc. Anything, but allow house prices to collapse. And whether it can be afforded is not an issue as they have demonstrated that they have no fear of debt.

The government will do none of that. Nor will prices collapse. But the risk of losses grow every month that real estate prices rise. Those who have one-asset strategies will regret it. — Garth

#225 Jimmy on 03.04.15 at 1:33 pm

How come you put Lornes comment but not mine?

Repetitious. Plus punctuation issues. — Garth

#226 Oil Is Sticky on 03.04.15 at 1:33 pm

still trucking in 604
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/real-estate-rush-vancouver-home-sales-prices-up-1.2262803

Vancouver’s red-hot real estate market showed no signs of cooling in February, which saw hikes in both homes sales and prices.

——-

the Govt’s non-participation in “origin of funds” is not cooling……..

#227 Mark on 03.04.15 at 1:35 pm

“Foreign money not a problem in YVR?”

Of course that guy has a lot of incentive to exaggerate the ‘foreign money’. He lays out the reasons for it himself — huge quantities of RE broker commissions are contingent upon such remaining the belief.

Big problem all along is that the evidence just doesn’t exist for any meaningful amount of ‘foreign money’ washing ashore. Nor does the vacant unit theory hold much water, as rents are not rising meaningfully in the GVR. The housing industry, hyper-stimulated as it is, is able to fully meet the demand, and prices have been falling in the GVR for the better part of the past 2 years. Although headline numbers, at least temporarily, might be showing increases because the sales mix has turned mostly to only high-end units being transacted. Perhaps the last echelons of “foreign money” actually selling into what remains of the bubble to repatriate funds back overseas (hence the selling seen in the CAD$ recently).

#228 Oil Is Sticky on 03.04.15 at 1:36 pm

#192 Linda on 03.04.15 at 10:47 am
HD #182 – Why People “Fly From Facts”

You don’t have to look too far to see this problem. On this blog, there’s a sizeable cohort of idiots who deny climate change, suggest 911 was an inside job, etc…etc…

———

We should feel sorry for Linda and all those who blindly believe Govt and Corporations at their word.

#229 Mark on 03.04.15 at 1:38 pm

“They will force banks to forgive mortgages. “

LMFAO! Good one, but on a more serious note, since the government (through the CMHC) has insured nearly every “at-risk” mortgage in Canada, its the government that’s ultimately going to be on the hook here. If the government tries to strong-arm the banks into ‘forgiving’ any mortgage debt, the banks will simply stop lending and even more defaults will flow towards the CMHC and onto their books.

As I’ve written many times, however, the chief risk to the business of the banks is that the government enacts a special sort of tax on them to pay for the inevitable CMHC bailouts.

#230 DisgustMadeMePost on 03.04.15 at 1:41 pm

#219 Lorne on 03.04.15 at 1:02 pm
Foreign money not a problem in YVR?

http://www.theprovince.com/business/mortgages/Chinese+money+making+Vancouver+more+more+unaffordable/10858619/story.html

…..

Thanks for the story. Anyone in 604 will be nodding their head as they read this article.

And yes, we are awash with high mortgage numbers but people want to remain living in the city in which they have grown up and work. Add some low interest rates to allow them the opportunity and voila.

Shame on the notorious pro developer Vancouver governments of this past number of years. Some vision.

#231 Linda on 03.04.15 at 1:44 pm

#217 Smoking Man

You are such a typical conspiracy retard. You seek only confirmation bias in your half-assed google searches, and demonstrate no ability to assess and rationally sort information.

Oh, and to you and the other conspiracy nutbars on here for whom it matters, I have three degrees (plus various certificates, but whose counting?), one in engineering, and can actually read and reason quite well, thank you very much. University paper is not the end of education, just part of the journey. My degrees, if anything, are ‘disobedience certificates’, and I always challenge bullshit where I find it. You, and your pronouncements on finance, real estate, 911 or anything else are consistently about 95% bullshit, and wrong.

Sad but true. But only for you and anyone who bothers to read you.

I rarely do. I wonder how Garth puts up with you.

(For anyone wanting to better understand conspiracy nuts, a good online resource is CBC Doc Zone “Conspiracy Rising” – an interesting 45 minute video that explains a lot about how pathetic conspiracy nuts cling to their beliefs like infants clutching their teddies in the crib. Sad, but it makes it more understandable)

#232 Envy on 03.04.15 at 1:45 pm

This could the theme song your site: Depreston

http://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/2015/03/04/depreston-song-highlights-real-estate-problems/#./?&_suid=142549055356004990336558841785

#233 BCD on 03.04.15 at 1:49 pm

“Please show us there is light at the end of this tunnel and good things come to those with patience.”
____________________________________________

The light you are talking about is supposed to come on your deathbed. However, if you are referring to when are you supposed to be rewarded for your foolishness in staying out of the real estate market this long–the answer is NEVER.

The writing is on the wall. Everyone has too much skin in the game to ever let real estate fail. Look to the state of Japan for our future.

#234 Lingo on 03.04.15 at 1:52 pm

Care to issue a retraction there Garth? Even local media in the 604 is finally permitting the issue of foreign ownership to hit the front pages.

“Since 2011 for every million spent on real estate, 30% is connected to mainland China”

“33.5% of 531 single family homes sold in 2013 went to mainland Chinese buyers for an average price of 2.07 million”

“Of immigrants who settled in Vancouver from 86 to 96 HALF identified as Chinese. Of these 37,000 households, 85 – 90% own homes.”

There will be no correction in Van/604. The building development currently is astronomical. New listings are through the roof. And prices have gone up 10%
It’s a mad, crazy scenario here in Van.

Article: Money from China driving up prices.
Sam Cooper. The Vancouver Province

More realtor scare tactics. This blog is not going to be polluted with Van-based, anti-Chinese invective. Don’t even bother. — Garth

#235 John on 03.04.15 at 2:01 pm

Most annoying people are dog owners and people who talk loudly with their cellphone in public spaces. Sorry Garth, love your blog, don’t like your hobbies.

My dog speaks on his iPhone6 in hushed tones only. — Garth

#236 DisgustMadeMePost on 03.04.15 at 2:04 pm

Garth, the Brad Lambs of the world would sell their mother for the nickel today.

They align themselves with and lobby those that can promote their interests/keep the game afoot. They go where the money is otherwise there’d be no need for overseas offices. They’re not humanitarians.

#237 DisgustMadeMePost on 03.04.15 at 2:09 pm

#227 Mark on 03.04.15 at 1:35 pm

Big problem all along is that the evidence just doesn’t exist for any meaningful amount of ‘foreign money’ washing ashore.

….

Isn’t that his whole point? No interested party that stands to benefit WANTS to have the evidence found. So they just don’t look.

Tired of the ‘no evidence to support’ argument.

At some point I’m expecting to hear ‘ gee! We just didn’t know it was that big an issue…’

#238 Mr.Hulot on 03.04.15 at 2:12 pm

DELETED

#239 Marco on 03.04.15 at 2:16 pm

@Vanecdotal

Agree, no black swan event needed now to blow up this debt gasbag. A wafer thin mint Monsieur? – Monty Python.

#240 Oil Is Sticky on 03.04.15 at 2:19 pm

#227 Mark on 03.04.15 at 1:35 pm
“Foreign money not a problem in YVR?”

Of course that guy has a lot of incentive to exaggerate the ‘foreign money’. He lays out the reasons for it himself — huge quantities of RE broker commissions are contingent upon such remaining the belief.

Big problem all along is that the evidence just doesn’t exist for any meaningful amount of ‘foreign money’ washing ashore.

——-

Mark. Because evidence is being “purposefully” withheld by many an interested party including the Govt and RE boards/agents then your comment is invalid.

#241 maxx on 03.04.15 at 2:20 pm

Didja win? Food for thought, capped off with a great quote by Buffet.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB22483005598294434483704580329053137987186

#242 Bond Junkie on 03.04.15 at 2:48 pm

#205 bdy sktrn on 03.04.15 at 11:31 am
10M barrels added!

sell energy!

WRONG! Look at the contango unwind taking place before your eyes. Batman yet SM?

#243 A Yank in BC on 03.04.15 at 2:52 pm

“Is that what it’s about? Being cheap? — Garth”

It’s hereditary. Nothing can be done about it. I too am afflicted, although I prefer to think of myself as “thrifty”.

#244 bdy sktrn on 03.04.15 at 2:57 pm

Big problem all along is that the evidence just doesn’t exist for any meaningful amount of ‘foreign money’ washing ashore.
———————————–
you must mean, “no data is collected, plenty of evidence”

if environment canada stops measuring rainfall my grass still gets wet and needs to be cut.

moving cash around the world is effortless.
not seeing it flowing into 604 is being willfully blind or not looking.

#245 Babblemaster on 03.04.15 at 3:00 pm

#229 Mark

Forgiving mortgages is a good one. For the debtor, not the rest of the taxpayers. You don’t believe it can happen here in Canada? What about the recent example in the USA, i.e. the “Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007.” They “restructured” mortgages and forgave people hundreds of thousands. I remember Obama saying that is was the right thing to do. That if your neighbors house went down in price, then it was bad for you as well.

Not a chance. — Garth

#246 Babblemaster on 03.04.15 at 3:04 pm

#229 Mark

You really think the government would tax the banks? No way. The banks are calling the shots. Politicians are always concerned about feathering their nests and serving on a bank board of directors after political life is just one reward for their pro-bank stance.

#247 Nagraj on 03.04.15 at 3:09 pm

I have time on my hands.

I hate leaving the house before dark. [A widower, I live all alone in a house way too big for me, deep in the country. No traffic. Except for horses and buggies on bad weather days. (Not all alone, there’s the 17yr old cat.)]

Well, this morning I had to make an emergency trip into the village, to get bird seed. I was out of bird seed! (I feed many, many birds.]

Well, on the way home for no reason whatsoever, this Dalton McQuack quote popped into my mind: “Which town was I going to let go?” He said that in justifying his California-style budget deficit.

[Obvious answer: Meaford.]

Are ALL of you “blog dogs” urbanites? Are ALL of you city suckers? [Correction: slickers.]

Have you any idea what you’re paying to keep us morally upright rural types in the very pink of infrastructure? [Yer payin an arm and a leg fer milk n cheese cuz Canadian cows are morally superior cows, see.]

Has it occurred to any of you that urban Canada really can’t afford rural Canada anymore?

That question aside, when the Canadian Recession becomes more apparent by way of massive unemployment stats . . . if I catches yas stealin’ vegetables I’ll aim for your condo and ask questions later.

#248 TRT on 03.04.15 at 3:11 pm

Bank of Canada holding off on rate cuts until the fall.

Equifax spooked them with their report even though the Big 5 had asked for another cut. They came to an agreement… another rate cut just before the election.

The Toronto market hitting an average price of $1 Million skewed the argument in favour of Equifax.

Welcome to YYZ to the Exclusive YVR Club!!

#249 Rational Optimist on 03.04.15 at 3:12 pm

231 Linda on 03.04.15 at 1:44 pm

I had to stop reading after you decided to use the word “retard.” That’s an ugly word, and name-calling is not the best way to get a point across (whatever it might have been).

#250 kommykim on 03.04.15 at 3:13 pm

RE:#216 Alberta is AWESOME on 03.04.15 at 12:26 pm Debt free, youngest population in Canada, bountiful resources.

Looks like someone needs a fact check:
http://www.taxpayer.com/commentaries/alberta-debt-clock-stands-at–7.8-billion

Nunavut and the Northwest Territories are the youngest regions in Canada with median ages of respectively 23.2 and 30.9 years:
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-003-x/2007001/t/4129901-eng.htm

#251 TRT on 03.04.15 at 3:14 pm

Not a chance. — Garth

Maybe give each homeowner a 25% unrepayable GRANT of the value of their home (mortgage or no mortgage).

The majority of Canadians are homeowners and this would be passed in case of a crash in housing. It would quickly put a floor under housing.

Have a referendum. It will pass.

#252 TRT on 03.04.15 at 3:17 pm

@Mark

“the chief risk to the business of the banks is that the government enacts a special sort of tax on them to pay for the inevitable CMHC bailouts.”

—> The Big 5 are the Government so one is not going to tax the other.

#253 Lingo on 03.04.15 at 3:18 pm

How about anti foreign ownership? It has driven prices to astronomical highs here in 604. Honestly Garth, how long can this go on? Should legislation be imposed? After all, Canadians with average incomes are taking on massive debt in order to afford single detached homes.

Over 95% of Van houses are bought by locals. Blame them. This blog will not tolerate the anti-immigrant, anti-Chinese swill. — Garth

#254 Alberta is AWESOME on 03.04.15 at 3:38 pm

Geez, and now we are only typically-rat-free!!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/rat-hotline-encourages-rodent-reporting-in-alberta-1.2919975

But we are on top of things with “rat-control zones”.. now we just need to set up commie-free zones to keep the REDFrauds away from the books.

#255 everythingisterrible on 03.04.15 at 3:46 pm

DELETED

#256 Mark on 03.04.15 at 3:51 pm

you must mean, “no data is collected, plenty of evidence”

Plenty of data is collected on inflows and outflows of money into/out of Canada. Plenty of data is also collected on incomes across Canada, and on leverage that exists in the banking system.

Neither point to any systemic influence that is not completely explainable within the confines of the system. In other words, the system is not being perturbed by unaccounted for foreign inflows or outflows.

Evidence and the most reasonable plausible explanation points to Canadians, of all ethnicities, speculating in RE being the chief cause of high prices. The RE marketplace noticeably decelerated when one of the chief instigators of low-grade credit, the CMHC, saw its rules tightened in the famous “F” Budget 2013.

Agree with Garth totally, to tar a certain ethnic group of Canadians as being “foreigners” responsible for driving up RE is disgusting. Despite those accusations of racism last week directed towards me, my record on this topic has been unequivocally consistent as the data has been unequivocal.

#257 Smoking Man on 03.04.15 at 3:53 pm

#231 Linda on 03.04.15 at 1:44 pm
#217 Smoking Man

You are such a typical conspiracy retard. You seek only confirmation bias in your half-assed google searches, and demonstrate no ability to assess and rationally sort information.

Oh, and to you and the other conspiracy nutbars on here for whom it matters, I have three degrees (plus various certificates, but whose counting?), one in engineering, and can actually read and reason quite well, thank you very much. University paper is not the end of education, just part of the journey. My degrees, if anything, are ‘disobedience certificates’, and I always challenge bullshit where I find it. You, and your pronouncements on finance, real estate, 911 or anything else are consistently about 95% bullshit, and wrong.

Sad but true. But only for you and anyone who bothers to read you.

I rarely do. I wonder how Garth puts up with you.

(For anyone wanting to better understand conspiracy nuts, a good online resource is CBC Doc Zone “Conspiracy Rising” – an interesting 45 minute video that explains a lot about how pathetic conspiracy nuts cling to their beliefs like infants clutching their teddies in the crib. Sad, but it makes it more understandable)
……..

So it’s a safe assumption we will not be partners in a Gasoline, Zippo demolition company.

Perhaps I should contact Nutandyahoo, word on the wild Web says he’s an expert at this sort of stuff.

#258 Wildnutter on 03.04.15 at 3:57 pm

#249 Rational Optimist

Indeed, ‘retard’ may be rather harsh….

This fellow seems quite rational.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Icke

Red Dresses

In Infinite Love is the Only Truth (2005), Icke introduces the idea of “reptilian software.” He says that there are three kinds of people. The highest level of the Brotherhood are the “Red Dresses.” These are “software people,” elsewhere called “reptilian software,” or “constructs of mind.” They lack consciousness and free will, and their human bodies are holographic veils.[51]

A second group, the so-called “sheeple” – the vast majority of humanity – have what Icke calls “back seat consciousness.” They are conscious, but they do whatever they are told and are the main source of energy for the Brotherhood. They include the “repeaters,” the people in positions of influence who simply repeat what other people have told them. Doctors repeat what they are told in medical school and by drug companies, teachers repeat what they learned at teacher training college, and journalists are the greatest repeaters of all. The third group, by far the smallest, are those who see through the illusion; they are usually dubbed dangerous or mad. The “Red Dress” genetic lines keep obsessively interbreeding to make sure their bloodlines are not weakened by the second or third levels of consciousness, because consciousness can rewrite the software.[51]

#259 Mark on 03.04.15 at 3:58 pm

“After all, Canadians with average incomes are taking on massive debt in order to afford single detached homes.”

I think Garth laid out clearly the consequences of continuing the narrative involving a certain ethnic group, a sanction that I almost faced recently. However, it is curious that on one hand you blame “foreigners”, but literally in the next sentence you acknowledge that “Canadians” are “taking on massive debt” to speculate in housing.

Talk about contradicting yourself!! Nothing is stopping those “Canadians” from renting and investing their money in assets and asset classes that have a much better implied return than Vancouver RE. In fact, with the current regime of prices, the true “smart money” in Vancouver is renting and buying cheap counter-cyclical assets at extremely discounted prices.

#260 For those about to flop... on 03.04.15 at 3:59 pm

249 Optimist on 03.04.15 at 3:12 pm
231 Linda on 03.04.15 at 1:44 pm

I had to stop reading after you decided to use the word “retard.” That’s an ugly word, and name-calling is not the best way to get a point across (whatever it might have been).
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Growing up in the 80s this word was fair game .
However now with education and age I realize how unsavoury this word is.
I am married to a special needs school teacher and my wife spends a lot of her day keeping her students from being bullied .
Not to drag up the incident on the weekend but maybe from now on the word “retard” should be retired .
Smoking Maid annoys me too ,but calling him that word will do little to change his point of view.

#261 fancy_pants on 03.04.15 at 3:59 pm

#231 Linda on 03.04.15 at 1:44 pm

All nutbar names aside, have you ever watched either of these documentaries?
Loose Change 9/11 or 911:In Plane Site

will make you rethink a few things. How on earth does building 7 fall when it was never hit with a plane and was block away with standing structures left between?

Congratulations on your useless papers. Piece of paper means little in itself – and I could wave a few around too but will refrain.

ps. you sound angry. It’s ok … haven’t you heard? we are in goods hands with Poloz :)

#262 mitzerboy aka queencitykid on 03.04.15 at 4:09 pm

#235 John on 03.04.15 at 2:01 pm
Most annoying people are dog owners and people who talk loudly with their cellphone in public spaces. Sorry Garth, love your blog, don’t like your hobbies

U mite be the reason why i like most dogs but only some people.

#263 @Linda on 03.04.15 at 4:12 pm

“conspiracy retard?”
For that you should be banished for life.
That is hate speech: disrespectful and hurtful to people with Real mental illnesses.

BTW: ad hominem attacks are an admission that you have already lost the debate

at least SM tries to amuse

#264 palebird on 03.04.15 at 4:17 pm

#197 “Hmmm … I am having some trouble with this one. Please help me understand. If you’ve paid off your mortgage, I assume you have equity which has probably appreciated significantly over time in your property. You can sell it tax-free. Your costs in paying interest have been off-set by the inflation of RE price appreciation.”

Historically your assumption is wrong. If you paid the bank for 25 years you would probably have paid three times what the property originally cost. Highly doubtful that you would recoup those monies except if you wound up in a situation such as we have today in certain markets. What has happened and is happening in the Canadian real estate markets is, for most people, a once in a lifetime event. This is not normality. Mortgages are designed to fleece the home owners.

#265 df on 03.04.15 at 4:20 pm

” I felt like a nubile, helpless virgin stretched across the sacrificial alter, which was briefly arousing.”

* This deserved more credit.

(hat tip sir)

#266 Wilf on 03.04.15 at 4:24 pm

To all those obsessed with Asian money-
Hong Kong was a British Colony
Canada is a British Colony
Therefore they are Not foreigners.

#267 Andres on 03.04.15 at 4:29 pm

@Babblemaster – your $400,000k on $20k claim is flawed for a bunch of reasons. First, you have to take off the actual costs of divesting yourself of the house such as realtor fees. You also have to take the difference between renting and owning minus the equity, and add the market gains on the investments. You also have to assume a 100% increase on a $400k property would actually have happened given at that price we’re generally dealing in condos which have not seen such increases. And finally, remember that you have not seen a gain until it is realized – in other words you have to sell the house at the top of the market to see that purported increase in value.

#268 Nemesis on 03.04.15 at 4:38 pm

#”Ooops”…

[SCMP] – Expert Christine Duhaime says the luxury real estate market in Vancouver poses a bigger laundering challenge than baccarat tables – IAN YOUNG IN VANCOUVER

http://m.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1729003/bc-casinos-court-chinas-high-rollers-its-realtors-who-gamble-money

#269 Simon Cowel on 03.04.15 at 4:53 pm

Garth,

Is there anything in the press (press release or article) related to the (Real Estate Panel) meeting that you attended (you stated the past Tuesday, so I am assuming Tuesday, March 3, 2015)?

The magazine will be published a piece on it, complete with my centerfold, in the near future. — Garth

#270 Not a pumper, just frustrated with weird reality on 03.04.15 at 5:01 pm

Van prices just reaches 1.4 mil.
Toronto 1.05 mil.
No end in sight.

#271 Poutchli on 03.04.15 at 5:12 pm

“Canada’s federal housing agency privately told the finance ministry last year that it was concerned about rising household debt levels…”

Source is BNN: http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/03/04/CMHC-expressed-worry-over-rising-debt-report.aspx

Spread your eggs.
Buy US banks.
Don’t sell Canadian ones, but don’t buy more.

Take a look at ZUB ETF by BMO.

#272 billwatr on 03.04.15 at 5:31 pm

231 Linda
“(For anyone wanting to better understand conspiracy nuts, a good online resource is CBC Doc Zone “Conspiracy Rising” – an interesting 45 minute video that explains a lot about how pathetic conspiracy nuts cling to their beliefs like infants clutching their teddies in the crib. Sad, but it makes it more understandable)”

conspiracy nuts…as opposed to status quo nuts?

Love the blog Garth. Fun and educational, great combo.
Smokey, keep up the good fight.

#273 Edward on 03.04.15 at 5:34 pm

MILLION $ HOMES PUT POLOZ ON HOLD.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-04/toronto-s-million-dollar-homes-put-poloz-back-on-sideline

#274 Smoking Man on 03.04.15 at 5:34 pm

Dogs, go easy on Linda, she’s a regular here, post good stuff, but is easily rattled on certain topics.

We all have different belief systems at play. It’s all based on our programming, and our social setting, and the way we have been conditioned to react to things.

Quick servey, is it OK to call your dog retarded if you can’t train him to crap outside?

Or is that a fo-paw too.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD, Herd-o-nomics

#275 everythingisterrible on 03.04.15 at 5:39 pm

a link to a Vancouver sun article and direct quotes from it are worthy of delete? Awesome.

Last warning: this blog will not be taken over by Chinese-hating rednecks. Buzz off. — Garth

#276 MrHulot on 03.04.15 at 5:39 pm

DELETED

#277 Selling soon... on 03.04.15 at 5:41 pm

“It was hopeless, of course. In fact, it was designed that way. I watched an evil smirk snake across the lips of the organizer, publisher of a chain of high-end magazines chock-a-block with glossy condo and mansion ads. I felt like a nubile, helpless virgin stretched across the sacrificial alter, which was briefly arousing.(LOL)
Then I was pummeled some more. After three hours, Club staff had to collect me with spoons.”

#278 SWL1976 on 03.04.15 at 5:49 pm

#231 Linda

Oh, and to you and the other conspiracy nutbars on here for whom it matters, I have three degrees (plus various certificates, but whose counting?)

———————————–

Apparently you are Linda.

WOW!!! A CBC documentry on conspiracy rising… Please do tell me more…

Fascinating stuff Linda

#279 Mark on 03.04.15 at 5:52 pm

“Van prices just reaches 1.4 mil.
Toronto 1.05 mil.”

Against an increasingly limited portion of the housing stock actually transacting.

I guess if Frank Stronach’s residence in the Aurora area was the only transaction in the GTA, the Realtors would claim that “house prices” rose to millions of dollars. The absurdity of just putting out a headline number without a detailed set of descriptive statistics behind it really calls the RE boards’ credibility into question. Especially when changes to the sales mix are incredibly obvious.

#280 CalgaryRocks on 03.04.15 at 5:54 pm

#231 Linda on 03.04.15 at 1:44 pm
#217 Smoking Man

You are such a typical conspiracy retard.

Oh no, Linda used a ‘bad word’. Now we have to listen to the P.C. police. Looking forward to 300 comments about how very bad, the word RETARD is and another 300 sob stories about being bullied in school.

Seriously, this blog is turning into ‘The View’.

#281 MarcFromOttawa on 03.04.15 at 5:58 pm

#274 SmokingMan

Quick servey, is it OK to call your dog retarded if you can’t train him to crap outside?

Only if it’s a male dog

OK, enough. Everybody move on. — Garth

#282 Leo Trollstoy on 03.04.15 at 6:05 pm

Especially when changes to the sales mix are incredibly obvious.

I don’t find them ‘obvious’ and I haven’t read any other blog dog talking about how ‘obvious’ this is. Perhaps you could cite a source for this opinion?

Or not.

#283 Newbie on 03.04.15 at 6:13 pm

280 Calgary Rocks

LOL! You hit that one.

It seems challenging conspiracy types is like it used to be challenging the Catholic church in Quebec in the 1950s. In fact the belief structures of conspiracy believers are markedly conventional and predictable, along the same lines.

Wonder if they noticed they are today behaving exactly like the crying babies Linda said they were…..

#284 everythingisterrible on 03.04.15 at 6:30 pm

DELETED

#285 robert james on 03.04.15 at 6:34 pm

DELETED

#286 For those about to flop... on 03.04.15 at 6:38 pm

#280 CalgaryRocks on 03.04.15 at 5:54 pm
#231 Linda on 03.04.15 at 1:44 pm
#217 Smoking Man

You are such a typical conspiracy retard.

Oh no, Linda used a ‘bad word’. Now we have to listen to the P.C. police. Looking forward to 300 comments about how very bad, the word RETARD is and another 300 sob stories about being bullied in school.

Seriously, this blog is turning into ‘The View’.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I was not trying to lecture anyone ,just stating the case for the deletion of such a devisive word.
Without moderation this blog will turn into a cesspit not the view.
Any way it is not a slow news day so let’s forget it.

#287 Pre-Retiree on 03.04.15 at 6:41 pm

Agreed. If you do nothing. Is that what it’s about? Being cheap? — Garth
___________________

Not at all. For us, it will be about having the freedom to do only the things that make us happy, and most of them are either free or do not cost a lot of money. To each his own, I guess. I agree that if your retirement entails expensive hobbies, and luxurious travels, then it is best to take that into account in your planning.

Free things that make you happy? What a concept. — Garth

#288 dienekes on 03.04.15 at 6:47 pm

That was hair on Sherry Cooper, I thought she was wearing a hat.

#289 TRT on 03.04.15 at 6:52 pm

Garth, I want to know what percentage of your readers bought RRSP’s.

I bet many.

Do you think they will ever put a cap on unfilled past years contributions if not made say within an x number of years.

IE. In 2016, you can only put in unfilled contributions from 2 years back?

#290 TRT on 03.04.15 at 6:52 pm

The unfilled part above referring to TFSA and not the suckers RRSP.

#291 Slo on 03.04.15 at 6:55 pm

http://www.theprovince.com/business/mortgages/Chinese+money+making+Vancouver+more+more+unaffordable/10858619/story.html

Didn’t you just talk about this? Look at how vague his wording is, ‘One third of buyers have some link to mainland china.’ Vague accusations of the prices rising 30% due to foreign investment.

#292 For those about to flop... on 03.04.15 at 7:04 pm

Not at all. For us, it will be about having the freedom to do only the things that make us happy, and most of them are either free or do not cost a lot of money. To each his own, I guess. I agree that if your retirement entails expensive hobbies, and luxurious travels, then it is best to take that into account in your planning.

Free things that make you happy? What a concept. — Garth
-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Any one who has visited Q.E park In Van will know this story.
To play pitch and putt for a group of four people in summer will run you around $60
On the other side of a sports fence there is a frisbee golf course that is free to play ,at which you basically do the same thing ( put an object in a hole ).
Yet people line up to play regular golf,not knowing they are being ripped off.
As society’s waistlines expand surely the goverment / council should encourage any physical activity should it not?

#293 a reader on 03.04.15 at 7:44 pm

Mr Turner,

Charming anecdote. Likewise, at some occasions.

On behalf of Mark and Anne (and apropos to your graphic) I asked my wife, whom recently returned from a tour of her supplier’s factories in Asia, on her opinion of the wealthy, and real estate, and where do the wealthy exactly live…?

“Hotels.”

Her company sold their warehouses in BC last year and completed a move to leased facilities. At my wife’s request, we lease/rent in Vancouver to be close to the port and her office. We summer at her country estate, which was originally surveyed in 1862 and purchased as a birthday gift, never to be sold. Of 40 foreign factory owners she deals with, 4 have bought Canadian residential real estate, primarily as family gifts, the last was two years ago. None live here. Whether residential real estate goes up or down in value, is negligible. They like Canada for the fresh air, space and the remote security, qualities that should be the focus of our government.

Mr Turner, my wife has also opined on China’s economy and I’ll watch for an appropriate topic to relay those thoughts. Essentially, they are retooling for internal markets. She’s shifting production to Cambodia and Viet Nam.

Sincerely,
A Reader

PS for your readers in Vancouver, she’s just alerted me there’s a container fire at the port. Some areas evacuated.

#294 Blogbitch on 03.04.15 at 8:29 pm

I admire your grit, Garth. You went into a den of rabid, salivating lions and came out in one piece.

#295 S. Bby on 03.04.15 at 8:29 pm

The real estate industry has pulled too many lying promotional stunts over the years to have any credibility with me. Evey time I read these “news” paper articles I just roll my eyes.

And I am feeling better these past few days, thank you.

#296 Willy H on 03.04.15 at 8:53 pm

Garth, you’ve made a name for yourself by threatning the established order and that is why they so desperately wanted you at this event, after all it’s just another marketing ploy to get bums in seats. Even the Granite Club can’t help itself.

Of course Lamb respects you, because he knows your right on the money. The Lambs and Coopers of this world will do anything to spin “confidence” into the housing market that they rely on to grow their own personal wealth. No surprise, after all it’s human nature to exploit short-term gain at the the expense of long-term pain. That’s why 95% of Canadians remain financially illiterate.

#297 Retired Boomer - WI on 03.04.15 at 10:13 pm

#195 bdy skytrain

Mark & Anne live in Toronto, not Vancouver.

Tulip Bulb reference was to irrational “value” whether that is in Real Estate, Tesla, or the prices asked for any item.

I noticed Tesla is well off its recent highs.

#298 waiting on the westcoast on 03.05.15 at 7:29 pm

“#258 Wildnutter on 03.04.15 at 3:57 pm

This fellow seems quite rational.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Icke

This guy seems far from rational… I hope you were being sarcastic…