“It seems strange to write you for an opinion regarding a personal question,” says Roger, “but amazingly I can’t seem to think of anyone who I might know personally or could ask locally who might provide an informed and ‘disinterested’ answer. I doubt I’m alone in that regard.”
You’re not. The world is full of people with an agenda. Besides, how many fuzzy-bear, saintly, common-sense, empathetic, astute, cuddly (yet hard-core manly) others are there around? Everyone lies on the Internet, so no wonder I’m so refreshing. Now, where were we?
“We live in Montreal. We rent in an apartment for $1100 a month plus utilities in a nice neighbourhood – we’ve been here for almost 10 years, but it’s a bit small for my wife, our 2 kids of elementary school age and I. After too many years of feeling squished my wife (whom I love and very much want to make happy) insists that we get a bigger place (one with 2 bathrooms and a real kitchen). We investigated rental possibilities first, and the price would be $2000-2500 per month plus utilities for a more comfortable but non-extravagant 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom place with a decent kitchen in a similar (non-commuter) setting.
“At that point, a purchase (since we would be willing to live in the right property for the rest of our lives) seems like a good option to consider. Given the rental cost, we began the process of seeing what could be purchased. It looks like the going price is $500,000-650,000 for something that we would want to live in for 25+years.
“We are in our early 40’s, have absolutely no debt, approx. $300,000 in RRSPs or other retirement accounts, $50,000 in education funds, $90,000 in savings. Our annual salaries combined are $125,000. After meeting with a mortgage broker, we were pre-approved for a purchase price up to $600,000.
“Then there’s the macro: the Canadian economy seems to be turning downward, Calgary is teetering, and Montreal seems overpriced given local income levels. We might be buying at the peak of the bubble (ironically after having held off for years out of prudence!). On the other hand, the predictions of a major price collapse have not come true for several years now —and my wife is fed up with waiting! She wants a bigger place (6-month ultimatum!).
“Given that a) we need a bigger (but not unreasonably big) place, b) we will be living in it for the long-term, and c) our financial health is okay, should the ever-present possibility of a price drop deter us in purchasing a home?”
Classic question, Rog. Here’s my classic answer.
First, let’s be realistic about the cost of owning a $650,000 house. I wrote you back and asked what you planned for a downpayment. You said, “We would use the $90k in liquid savings, take $50k from our RRSPs and our parents would like to contribute $60k.”
Of course, taking sixty grand from parents means obligation. If you think not, you’re dreaming. It may not be today, or in a decade, but it will come. When it does, you pay. By the way, ever read Dr. Faustus?
Anyway, here’s the simple math. A $200,000 downpayment on a house in Montreal (where prices are stalled and will stay that way) is dead money that could be earning $1,200 a month in a financial portfolio making 7%. Then there’s the mortgage, which at the bargain rate of 2.85% (five-year VRM, 25-year am) will cost $2,100. Property tax and insurance are at least three hundred a month – and I will include nothing for renos, fluffing or way more heat. It all comes to $3,400 – which is 54% more expensive than renting.
So, scratch that argument used so often – ‘with rates this low it hardly costs any more to own than rent.’ It’s a myth. And I didn’t even add in closing costs to buy or commission to sell, let alone the fact you will renew the mortgage at a far higher rate in five years and probably renovate the kitchen in the meantime.
The next argument is also classic: you’ll live in this house forever, so it matters not if you pay too much, if the market tumbles or the economy craters. Bunk. In fact, Canadians move on average every six years. People own five houses during their lifetime (another average), and almost a third of us (28%) change houses every five years. Staying in one house in one city seriously limits your mobility and employment prospects in an economy which is rapidly changing and demands more flexibility. Besides, an asshole may move in next door.
No logic there, Roger. Just another excuse to make her happy.
And the macro argument?
You bet, the economic climate right now is fragile. Oil’s a problem. People are pickled in debt and seriously over-extended in housing. Taxes are crushing (especially in Quebec) and will get worse. The fact the Bank of Canada freaked out enough to cut its key interest rate should worry everybody, as it was an admission of failure. So dismissing the logic of a housing correction is unwise.
Meanwhile Montreal is a declining market. Most of 2014 was lousy, and sales last month started falling again while listings rose. The condo market is overbuilt with a significant buildup of unsold inventory. Even though this is the country’s second-biggest market (almost four million people), house prices are going nowhere. So what’s the point of paying 54% more to own than to rent, with no real prospect of capital appreciation?
Yeah, I know. You get to stay married.
So why did you ask?
241 comments ↓
It’s amazing how everyone just looks at the mortgage monthly at the lowest mortgage rates in history and concludes that because it is marginally lower than the rent they should buy.
Most people learn this the hard way. Hopefully Roger won’t have to eat the pain.
Hang in there, Rog. The way to deal with impulse masquerading as “logic” is to stay calm and stick with the facts. At the risk of sounding old-fashioned, what wymyn want is to know that their men have a plan. And that they intend to stick to it. The 6 month “ultimatum” is really just her probing your resolve. Waffling now will only make things worse.
British Columbians recently got some good news with regard to their province’s finances. In the fiscal year 2014/15 the B.C. Government is forecasting a budget surplus of $184 million.
Unfortunately though, there was some bad news mixed in with the good news. In spite of the B.C. Government forecasting a budget surplus of $184 million in the fiscal year 2014/15, they are expecting the total provincial debt to increase by $2.9 billion in the 2014/15 fiscal year up to a total of $64.7 billion.
In the fiscal year 2015/16 the B.C. Government is expecting to run a budget surplus of $206 million, and the total provincial debt to increase by $2.2 billion, up to a total of $66.9 billion.
In the fiscal year 2016/17 the B.C. Government is expecting to run a budget surplus of $451 million, and the total provincial debt to increase by $1.9 billion, up to a total of $68.8 billion.
Summary: BUDGET AND FISCAL PLAN – 2014/15 to 2016/17 (This data table is at the very top of the page at the following link:)
http://bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2014/bfp/2014_budget_and_fiscal_plan.pdf
David Stockman: The Global Economy Has Entered The Crack-Up Phase
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-15/david-stockman-global-economy-has-entered-crack-phase
btw, starting to notice some genuine deals (repos) here on V.I.. Elbow grease may be needed but realistic is coming into view.
I live alone. I do what is best for me and I help others. Women have helped me with my financial decisions in life as much as anybody. A woman’s instinct is to “nest”, and with the brainwashing surrounding her from the majority the woman is convinced buying a hose is best and when she wants one is the time to buy regardless of sanity.
Not all women are this way, just the vast majority. If the man is with a woman who will spend all the money insanely without thinking, well, what the hell is the sane man doing with the financially insane woman who does not care about managing the family finances sanely? The answer, most men are ruled by their small head and most women know this and use it to their advantage to get what they want when they want it. Need proof? Look at the debt rates in Canada.
I always put my freedom first, and attracting females has nothing to do with buying a house. Real men make their own rules. No exception.
Vrm is easily available at 2.25 (p-0.60) if not lower. Just keep on looking!
Terrible idea for a first-time buyer. Besides, he has to qualify at posted five. — Garth
Dear Mr Turner,
What are your thoughts on the amount of vacant commercial space with recent retail closures? I have travelled all over the US of late and have never seen so many empty shops.
Thanks!
house, not hose.
You can buy perfectly fine houses at lot cheaper than that in YUL….but anyways.
We’ve got ourselves a real comedian here.
Sir Garth:
So Roger, show the wife this post! And add on to it the fact that you made the ” The Turner Report “. That should about do it!!
LOL – An endless bunch of men, where their wives wear the pants in the relationship and they are effectively the “wife”.
Until men reject these types of “ultimatums”, and call the bluff the emotional blackmailing will only keep growing.
Garth,
Where do you get your funny photos from? They are absolutely hilarious!
Thanks,
Tazmin Asahi
You are sad person Freedom. But hey have at it.
To further strengthen your argument Garth, there are strong rent control provisions in Quebec. Rate increases are tightly regulated and are very low. I know folks who live in the McGill ghetto paying $600/month for a 3.5 because they moved there back in the late 90s. The opportunity cost of buying real estate in Quebec is massive
http://www.rdl.gouv.qc.ca/en/outils/Fixation2014.asp
I’m sure no women want your hose freedom…
For the life of me I don’t know why people are so against renting their accommodation, even if it is for their entire lives, if necessary. The familiar refrain of not wanting to waste good money on paying off some other person’s mortgage really doesn’t ring true if a proper cost justification analysis is done where it can be proven (as you have often done in this blog), showing that the cost of renting is often far cheaper than home ownership. Of course the other point to be stressed is that the savings thus realized has to be invested properly. Many folks drop the ball here.
Now, as to you referring to yourself as “saintly” – I thought that SNL humour was last night! :-)
Hey you listened to me regarding the title change ,good man Garth!
#6
Vrm is easily available at 2.25 (p-0.60) if not lower. Just keep on looking!
Terrible idea for a first-time buyer. Besides, he has to qualify at posted five. — Garth
________________________
Nothing wrong with VRM.. will save you a bunch…. just use a higher rate to determine what you can really afford so as to limit yourself from being a mortgage pig
Roger, your current rent sounds like a steal (even renting a bigger place is a ~100% more than your current rent.). In order of desirability (financially), your best options are 1) stay put, 2) rent bigger, then 3) buy.
Are there other things you can do to make your wife’s life happier or easier (besides buying a bigger home?) Strike a deal with her. Which ever non-buying option she is willing to settle for (say, #2), put the savings from that (compared to the next less-desirable option) into a fund towards making her life happier and easier. Could be anything: get her a nicer car, housekeeping services, personal chef visits, more childcare, vacations, clothing, jewelry. I suspect, given that she’s been practical about not buying for so long, she may also just like seeing the savings invested and growing. But even if it all gets spent on services, a) you got to stay married, and b) you’re not tied down with that big mortgage and the pain if “life happens” (job loss, housing correction, large repair bill, need to move for personal or employment reasons.)
Good luck, tell us what you decide!
I may have missed it, but I don’t think Roger’s wife is insisting on purchasing a house. She just wants a bit more space than 2 beds, 1 bath provides. Pay the extra rent for a 3 bed, 2 bath place Roger, and wait a year or so to buy. You will have greater peace of mind (as well as household) if you take your time to make your purchase.
With the majority of North America in extreme deep freeze, heating oil consumption is spiking. How much longer before it translates into increased oil prices?
$20 oil is not gonna happen ever again.
$100 oil is inevitable as a result of increasing world-wide demand, oil companies cutting back production, and geo-political unrest in Libya, Iraq and several OPEC countries.
Renting in Montreal is still a treat.. always has been..cheap cheap cheap…..it’s just a beotch when everyone switches places every year on Canada day.
Roger, Mr,Tuner is right, load up on oil stocks and enjoy double the money in 2 years. Time to devalue US dollar before interest rate increase and oil is the catalyst. They won’t teach that shiet to school, lala have a diploma in street aconomics, lala came in Canada 10 years ago with empty pockets, now money isn’t an issue. Roger me…
Just Buy, interest rates are going negative in many countries. Soon the bank will pay you to hold this mortgage.
Beside if you live in the place it’s all good.
Very similar case for me, except for:
1 – Wife chronically unhappy (comes with the age)
2 – I pretty much settled for the idea I would never purchase a home in Montreal.
It is an era of self-entitlement that we live in that people who know better logically (and probably know the right answers anyways but can’t help themselves) STILL come for permission emotionally to Garth to commit tremendous self-inflicted financial ruin to themselves and their families and then Garth gives them an ICE COLD DOSAGE of hard truth and the person “who loves to read the blog” (but ask against their better judgement) gets shamed for considering going against what they are constantly told over and over and over again on this blog. (And they say the answer to societies problems is more education)
Garth is not here to emotionally bail out these readers. He is here to deliver the cold hard truth from the freezer of REALITY!
I agree … people move every few years now, so buying and staying put is soooo last-generation!
The Rent vs. Buy comparison is very helpful, realistic, and encouraging … however I still believe most people don’t “invest” the extra cash after spending less on rent.
“Soon the bank will pay you to hold this mortgage. “
Won’t happen. Negative rates are, at best, policy tools, only applicable to lending from the central bank which does not particularly care about preservation of its capital as it is merely a tool of monetary policy. Chartered banks will merely warehouse cash or invest in other stuff, before they actually write loans at negative interest rates.
If there is the necessity for policy rates to be so low, the implication is two-fold: a) the currency is probably appreciating or set to appreciate significantly, and b) credit-worthiness throughout the economy, particularly amongst those who borrow, is extremely poor. The latter, of course, inhibiting negative rate borrowing in and of itself on account of risk premia.
“Besides, an asshole may move in next door.”
————————————————————–
Now you are talking.
Roger, you poor guy I feel for you. I was a victim of house horny based blackmail in a way similar to you in the past.
I am familiar with renting in Montreal rents because I have lived there on and off for the last 3 years. Your rent figures for a bigger place sound way too high, shop around, find a nice place, the cost will be reasonable, you can do it quickly, and your wife will be happy afterwards.
Don’t forget that if you choose to buy now, factor in the cost of your resentment that you are bound to harbour. That resentment will cost your marriage big time too. (because you are GUARANTEED) that buying in Montreal at the moment will be a very poor decision that will cause you much financial grief and limit your options in the future.
Good luck, stay the course. She will appreciate your tenacity later and respect you for it.
PS: Have you been following the Bombadier story about their new jets? What do you think the impact on Montreal would be if they take a big hit in the future? (hate to say it but it is a very real possibility)
Trust me, stay the course and you will look like a genius in 3-5 years.
I have a rented house on one side of me and long time owners on the other side.. it’s the rented assholes that keep switching every two years
Forget 650k.
For 450k you can have a 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom decent family home on the island.
After a 200k downpayment, left with a 250k mortgage which is more than reasonable for a 125k household income.
http://passerelle.centris.ca/Redirect2.aspx?CodeDest=ROYALLEPAGE&NoMls=MT16022526&Source=WWW.REALTOR.CA&Langue=E
#12 Hawk on 02.16.15 at 6:31 pm
——————————————–
Agreed, a relationship is suppose to be equal, with intelligent discussion on both sides, followed by similar amounts of compromise.
Isn’t $2100 plus $300 equal to $2400?
How much money is required to open an account with Garth?
#170 young & foolish on 02.16.15 at 6:22 pm
——————————————————-
Exactly. 3:1 as historical average of house to income is based on average mortgage rates, which is what, 7-8%?
If we have persistent low rates, that average can easily be driven up to 4:1 or 5:1 (as an average, with higher ratios in the more bubbly markets).
#22 Lillooet, BC on 02.16.15 at 6:46 pm
With the majority of North America in extreme deep freeze, heating oil consumption is spiking. How much longer before it translates into increased oil prices?
Speculators have already pushed oil up in spite of worsening fundamentals. The weather system will pass long before supply starts declining enough or demand increases enough to bring things back into balance.
$20 oil is not gonna happen ever again.
$100 oil is inevitable as a result of increasing world-wide demand, oil companies cutting back production, and geo-political unrest in Libya, Iraq and several OPEC countries.
Who are you trying to convince? Your or us?
The problem is oil companies are not cutting back on production; they are mainly cutting or deferring future projects.
Last week’s inventory build was the largest weekly build since the 1970s if you care about the underlying fundamentals.
Many of the oil producers are hedged at higher prices, which means they can keep pumping (at spot prices that are below their cost) until that hedge expires further exasperating the supply glut.
Here’s how $20 oil could happen all of a sudden – when storage (which is already low) nears capacity more expensive storage will need to be used. Imagine trying to store a bunch of oil in rail cars, for example – it’s not cheap. All of the costs associated with second-rate storage are unrealized losses on the oil. The owners of that oil will discount it to sell it. They will not be the only ones trying to do this. This is the scenario under which oil could hit $20 really quick.
If it gets to $20, will it stay there? Not forever, unless we also cut our oil consumption by some unrealistic number like 50% globally. But will it hit $100 again? Not likely anytime soon. This is not 2008, because in 2008 fracking was a non-factor. Today fracking is the primary reason oil has collapsed in price.
I would be genuinely surprised if oil found a medium term equilibrium above $80 a barrel, which does not bode well for the oil sands.
Going Mental: What is a Healthy Relationship? – YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNPANO_2VMA
#5
You’re right brah! I firmly believe that a man needs to be his own boss in his own life. Women want security whereas men want freedom.
#13
In a marriage, if a man calls the woman bluff, I don’t see how that’ll be a win-win situation, more of a lose-lose situation. Most men are tired from work, and the last thing they need at home is another battle of wills. Better they just follow what the women want.
Mr. Turner, yesterday you stated only amateurs time the market ok, how about buying in tranches?
14&16 a bit of star stuff
Yes, ignore the message and make only personal attacks on the messenger. a bit of star stuff: kiss my a$$
Funny, I don’t remember this scene from any of the books.
Perhaps in the sequel?
@32 A bit of star stuff
So the “rented assholes” “keep switching every two years”
…to get away from the asshole next door?
#14 Bit of Star Stuff writes, “You are sad person Freedom. But hey have at it.”
Really, Bit of Star Stuff? I didn’t read Freedom First’s post and feel pity or sadness. I found it entirely refreshing in a culture of individuals scared to death of being alone with themselves.
Describing Freedom First as a “sad person” is akin to pitying him/her, and yet Freedom First doesn’t pity himself. As a long-time contributor to this blog, FF has always struck me as a cheerfully mischievous sort.
The curious thing about pity is that its misplacement is itself pitiable.
[Pity — the capacity for feeling for another’s unhappiness or misfortune. Source: Merriam Webster]
“The fact the Bank of Canada freaked out enough to cut its key interest rate should worry everybody, as it was an admission of failure.”
Possible: Or Tubby had his trained seal follow his orders to keep the RE party going. OR do a Bush and leave a pile of fiscal excrement for the next idiot.
“Meanwhile Montreal…The condo market is overbuilt with a significant buildup of unsold inventory.”
What’s funny is that although this is true, it’s been the case for at least ten years in Montreal. I remember a local newspaper running a story about it way back around 2006, saying that there was a two to three-year oversupply and too much planned construction.
Still hot and Horny in Cowtown…neighbour just sold his his 1.25M house for 1.24M within 3 hrs of listing.
Oddly it was to an American family who got burnt on being “outbid” on other houses…
A fool and his/her money….
You can rent a 3bd 2 bth apartment with ocean and mountain view for 475 Usd amonth in Acapulco.If your income is made online there is no reason to live in unaffordable country like Canada.Its very demoralizing for everything we pay including taxes that we don’t get the perks like many Europeon countries.Subsidized rent,pay no more than 30% of income for rent,free and better health care and free university.Our goverment have fleeced us all.
#41
@32 A bit of star stuff
So the “rented assholes” “keep switching every two years”
…to get away from the asshole next door?
————
Damn right! lol
I have to repeat this..
Canada can just go back to being the shitty frozen tundra that it is.
South park…Colorado
RE:#8 Freedom First on 02.16.15 at 6:13 pm
house, not hose.
But, then he’ll be both housed and hosed. ;-)
After reading case after case like this I’m so grateful for my wife. She’s become even more Garthian than I am! Just the other day I mentioned that if prices continue to crater in Kelowna it may become advantageous for us to buy. To which she replied: “What about mobility? I love our freedom right now!”
I kid you not. It sure helps that I keep her fully apprised of the galloping gains our balanced portfolio has made since 2011 (when I discovered this blog).
Ultimatums are for wusses. Find a partner that understands math, not “realtor math”!
DELETED
My wife and I are on our fifth house in Calgary since 1990. The blame for all of the dumb decisions lie at my feet alone. The wise decisions were made by her. It has nothing to do with gender. She is smart and I am dumb.
Oh what a lucky man I am.
Staying married is best especially if there are kids involved. I’ve tried both.
One aspect of divorce most people don’t think through is the financial side of things. For the great majority of families out there the child support will not be enough to maintain the children’s current standard of living, but it will be enough to cripple the payer’s. You simply cannot support 2 households for the price of one.
But unfortunately for most people the decision is usually irreversible by the time the lawyers explain how it’s going to work.
So all you married men out there, don’t cheat on your wives and you married women don’t cheat on your husbands. It just simply costs too much. Unless you are rich of course then it doesn’t matter, go crazy like Tiger Woods. Tiger has more money than he can possibly spend even after getting divorced, but for most of us that simply isn’t the case. We barely have money to pay for our kid’s extra curricular activities without getting divorced and certainly none after. If you have kids in soccer or something check it out sometime. There will of course be a few kids on the team that have divorced parents and still get to play, but the ratio won’t be anywhere near what you will see if you do the same calc at school.
So what am I saying? If Roger can’t rent a bigger place then buying is cheaper than renting 2. Sometimes life is complicated like that.
But I also agree with a “not so between the lines” part of Garth’s advice: Don’t take money from your parents. That always leads to trouble. If your parent’s insist on giving you money because they are rich like Midas and they are “pre-willing” money away to all their children equally then I suppose what can you do but take it and put it immediately in trust for your children’s education or something like that, but do not live off of it. But if you want to see an end to the family take money from mom and dad that other kids didn’t get. It is literally the end of everything no matter who you think is being selfish or who has the right to give what’s theirs to whom.
Here is a parable that can explain it (actually the one in the new testament does a fair job but nobody ever reads it to the end. The prodigal son des not get one penny more, the older son gets the entire remaining inheritance. People skip that part.) Anyway my parable.
There once was a couple who had 4 children but limited means. But they discovered that their oldest child was a really good hockey player. Therefore, it was decided that Johnny should play top level hockey, attend camps and get special training. Unfortunately this put extreme pressure on the family budget, so the other 3 children could not take piano lessons or even have new clothes. But it would all be ok, when Johnny made the NHL he could buy his siblings each a house. Unfortunately Johnny got a concussion, missed a season, and got cut from the team.
Average house price in Montreal is $326,000 , could damn near pay cash if you must have a house…….
It all comes to $3,400 – which is 54% more expensive than renting.
***********************************
Hus, isn’t that 2400 per month.
God Garth, you sure hate real estate..AMEN.
It’s not about emotion. — Garth
Only ~175 comments on weekend blog post?
Must mean market inflection point is ended. Bonds down, Stocks up. Trade oil and Nat Gas in a range.
It would be awesome if lenders had potential buyers do the math garth just did for roger.
Instead the loan arranger has the same story as the salesman. “It’s cheaper to buy”. No math necessary. It gets in the way. Roger is lucky he had someone to turn to. The rest of them feel like the guy in the pic.
Take your wife on a trip. A great one. Cause you actually have wealth. And talk about you future and what fits you guys best. Kids will be done school quicker than you think.
My daughter is a dancer. And I once read a saying that goes like this. When you dance, your purpose is not to get to a certain place on the floor. It’s to enjoy each step along the way. That’s what you and your wife have allowed yourselves to do. It’s everyone else that trying to find a place.
[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/02/16/the-dilemma-2/ […]
re: “Montreal is a declining market.”
Montreal has the distinction of having the largest inventory of real estate for sale in Canada; over 17 months of inventory!!!
http://www.chpc.biz/mar-moi.html
If buying, remember, the asking prices are just an invention.
#54 Ogopogo
“Find a partner that understands math, not “realtor math”!”
Exactly! Key to happiness.
I would also add… “and is financially literate”. Makes life much easier.
DELETED
#22 heating oil consumption is spiking? Right.
What % of homes still use heating oil?
This sorry line of c–p is trotted out every winter to justify gasoline price increases and the media spews this drivel as gospel.
In southern Ontario, very few people heat with oil even in the rural areas. I think that I last saw a fuel oil truck about a month ago. I remember being surprised to see one again.
Personally I, like most other Hamiltonians, have got gas.
this is a good and useful post but I want more Calgary death watch
and less fog
http://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story-133060-1-.htm#133060
I cannot see across the street
RBA looking at slashing it’s interest rates again.. Should be some amazing volatility on the Forex front next few months.
$$$$$ now if I can only figure out the best spot on earth to be when www3 breaks out..
the story about the Tommie awards near my fog link is interesting
here in Kelowna builders reward each other with awards they buy from and give to each other
I used to sell wood in Kelowna to cabinet shops, I was not very good at it, too honest. One of my customers ‘won’ a Tommie award and they wanted 3500 from him.
50 Rexx Rock on 02.16.15 at 8:11 pm
You can rent a 3bd 2 bth apartment with ocean and mountain view for 475 Usd amonth in Acapulco
Where/what link?
Solution: marry a frugal woman.
The art of Compromise.
What about if the woman that so badly wants the house puts down the majority of the down payment,and then the couple pays of the mortgage with the guy paying 60 % of the mortgage.
25 years later they should be “even ” roughly.
She gets want she wants
He has happy wife / happy life senerio with out over paying at the start and because the woman is more invested in the house less chance of her saying
“This is not what I wanted”
P. S . I’ve been married 12 years and we still have separate bank accounts even though in the eyes of the law its ” our ” money.
I do not think this guy should buy ,but better to compromise instead of dismissing something totally.
There are lower interest rates year after year, just look 20 years ago, 10%+ 5 year mortgage rates, now 2.5% to 2.99%.
Everything from auto insurance to utilities costs at least 2 to 3 times more.
The global economy is in a depressed state and any gains are not that great. It is an economic malaise.
All the funny money went into stocks, equities and this is the only reason why they are up.
The fundamentals of the economy is much worse off than 20 years ago.
How would a $200K, 7% return financial portfolio would look like? What kind of tax would it attract on top of a $125,000 combined income? Thanks.
The nature of this balanced, diversified portfolio has been described here often. No tax on unrealized capital gains. Tax on realized gains and dividends are at a 50% discount. The tax system smiles on people with money to invest. — Garth
God, help Roger!
This is what financial illiteracy is about. For me Montreal is a city with “A Louer” signs everywhere and I can’t even dream of buying a house in that city because the rent is dirt cheap.
Please Roger, lend me your $200K for the next 5 years at %4 and I guarantee that I’ll pay back your money after 5 years. – No default on debt with me.
what inquisitive minds should know is this same story would have been offered the same advice 5 years ago. How’d that turn out?
the global economy continues as the scariest show on earth and RE continues down the same path.
I want to feel the tide has turned but niggling at my conscience is the possibility the croonies on the hill will find a way yet again to prop the market …
My advice would be to move into a bigger rental and plan to buy in about five years. You have elementary school age kids – do you want them spilling on your carpet and damaging your walls, or your landlords? Don’t underestimate the increase in tension when everything that goes wrong is your responsibility. In five years you’ll know where you want to live for their high school years, they’ll be done damaging stuff (mostly), you’ll think about home layouts differently (teenagers have different space needs than young kids), you will have saved (and invested) a wad, and quite probably houses will be cheaper. Given it’s also the wiser financial choice, what’s the downside?
I’d call that bluff Roger. The burden of 400k+ in mortgage debt in your 40s will be one hell of a strain on your marriage anyway – you really want to be making mortgage payments in your 60s? It sucks you didn’t buy 10-15 years ago like most couples your age.
# 71 JSS
“Solution: marry a frugal woman.”
Then why not just marry a rich woman that comes with the house.
I’m in Montreal. First off #33 Bottoms_up – you link to Roxboro which is a non-trivial commute. The guy says he’s inner city from what i can tell.
Ok so Montreal is IMHO ripe for correction. I’m seeing rental prices fall. Yield on these must suck.
Sit tight rentiers whilst I line you up in my sights. Good rentiers.
DELETED
aL pacino and Luc
It all comes to $3,400 – which is 54% more expensive than renting.
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Hus, isn’t that 2400 per month.
———————————-
Remember the $1200 per month opportunity cost of the down payment for a total of $3400.
That’s really conservative – municipal taxes AND fees more like $450 to $500 per month, rather than $300/m and upkeep $200 to $500/m depending on how old/conditon of the house.
So cost of owning closer to $4000/m
But on the happy side you learn how to do all kinds of handyman work instead of enjoying the weekend.
#73 Ray Vasquez
The global economy is in a depressed state and any gains are not that great. It is an economic malaise.
All the funny money went into stocks, equities and this is the only reason why they are up.
The fundamentals of the economy is much worse off than 20 years ago.
—————————-
The world economy always seems to be in a MALAISE and things are always seem to be much WORSE off than 20 years ago.
AND the world economy continues to CHUG FORWARD year after year and decade after decade.
JUST THE WAY IT WORKS, ignore it at your peril.
…..of course there’s alway GICs.
Bonjour, Allo Roger! I hear you may be moving in – magnifique!
Bienvenue to my neighbourhood, where I think have done a great job setting the community tone for years.
Here is just a taste of what you can expect in your new maison a cote de la mienne…..
I will noisily operate my power tools on Sundays in the backyard. Hey, a man needs a hobby :)
I will let my garbage bins roll/blow over onto your property and never pick up the mess that spills.
I will hold garage sales that go on for weeks with people parking in or blocking your driveway to get to my goodies.
I will dump cleaning and construction waste mixed with dirty water onto the street in front of your house, or on your yard when you’re not looking.
I will wash my car in my driveway with my naked beer belly and ugly shorts, probably whenever your friends visit, and certainly if you ever have realtors coming around with potential buyers.
I will get a street parking pass and park my ugly spare truck in front of your house, never moving it and adding so much to your home’s appearance and property value.
I’ll try to make sure one tire is always flat.
I will shovel my snow onto your property for fun and onto the street so navigation is harder for everyone.
I will complain if you put up any English only signs on your lawn – chalice! tabernac!
If I don’t like you, I’ll be sure to gossip to all the other oldtimers on the street and make sure they think you are the problem on the street.
Before I go to work, I’ll idle my car engine for fifteen minutes or so every day it’s a little cool or hot – think of all those free minerals you’ll be breathing in!
I’ll play loud, bad music at odd times. Maybe even practice my French horn or drums with the window ajar.
Even though my lot is postage stamp sized, I’ll be sure to use the biggest, noisiest gas lawn mower I can find. I wouldn’t want to burn off that beer belly doing too much manual labour!
I’ll hold parties that keep you up all night and leave my patio lights on bright lots of nights each summer.
I’ll take any chance I can get to tell you what the ‘rules’ of this neighbourhood are, in case you run afoul of them. Including how you should raise your kids.
I’ll do construction projects inside and around my house with no permits or safety precautions, because that’s the way I’ve always done things.
Roger – you must agree with your wife, isn’t home ownership a grand thing!?
The best part is, there’s only a few people on every street just like me, and you have REALLY LUCKED OUT being right beside me!!
I am SO looking forward to spending YEARS next to you while you wait for your property value to rise back up to what you paid, so we can enjoy all these things together! So many wonderful moments ahead :)
Your neighbour, Rene.
OMG.. before I even read on.. that is seriously the best picture yet! Classic!
Solution – Don’t get married in the first place.
Ouch.. nasty.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/largest-ponzi-scheme-in-canadian-history-exploited-boom-time-alberta/article23010870/
Mes enfants (since this is a Montreal story), negative interest rates (currently @ the bank to bank level in a number of countries -Swiss/Denmark), but likely coming to us peasants soon enough) means that the depositor of money with a bank pays a fee (interest) based upon the size of the deposit, such that each day the total deposit shrinks. Thus, Harpo’s tax free top up agenda would become a joke, as there would be no positive interest gained anyway.
Obviously, such a horror wouldn’t get too far; a lot of people might just take their money out of the bank and head somewhere else with it. Euro folks are doing exactly that now, looking for safe spots in non-euro land ie. loonies and Swiss Francs. So Poloz discouraged them with lower interest, and thus a weaker loonie. Ford and GM love it and plan to upgrade some assembly lines. But, our weak dollar sees imported food prices etc climb weekly.
It sounds kind of upside down; it is. Take Garth’s good advice. Stay and get out of debt. Find a bigger rental and keep saving. Canadian house prices are apparently grossly inflated. Wait.
I’m looking at the photograph and I’m wondering what kind of utter nimrod would get themselves stuck into such a position. I bet the fire department had to cut the egit loose.
Garth your friend Robert Shiller says that returns in both the stock and bond makets will be low for several years to come. How does this affect your 7% portfolio return?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102424071
When you share love with someone, you gain.
When you share money with someone, you lose.
Best thing is to share love with someone who has money.
#3 BC on 02.16.15 at 6:04 pm
British Columbians recently got some good news with regard to their province’s finances. In the fiscal year 2014/15 the B.C. Government is forecasting a budget surplus of $184 million.
——
It’s not good news. It just shows you how they tax the living crap out of you in the province of Bring Cash. The most expensive place on earth…….
I agree with that #5 post by Freedom First whole-heartedly. I can relate to his position but everybody is different. Some guys just have to have a woman in their life and some just…don’t. Unfortunately I disregarded my true feelings on the matter in 1993 and got married. The biggest mistake of my life bar none. I have now been paying alimony and child support (about 40% of my net pay) for 6 1/2 years and I have one more year to go. I have been reading this entertaining blog for about 5 (?) years now and it never ceases to amaze me to read how seemingly normal smart-thinking men throw everything away to satisfy their wife’s material desires. Especially the ones who seem to be worried about her leaving them. Get real. If the marriage was meant to be in the first place it shouldn’t matter where you live or whether you rent or own. It’s pathetic really. Grow a set. Yes, yes ladies I know I’ll always be single. You know what?–I’m pretty damn happy about that. My life doesn’t revolve around my groin. Freedom First.
Looks like it’s the wife looking at him… and she ain’t impressed… had to find one of the a-hole neighbours to get him out.
#79
That’s the ticket!
I think the math needs to be tweaked a little and I am not a realtor. The place Roger wants based on his current requirements will cost him 2000-2500$/month rent. If Roger bought a house for his needs that will cost him 600k approx. With 150K down the monthly payment would be around 2100$/month but the actual interest payment (money down the drain) is only about 1100$/month rest is paid towards the principal which is positive equity. Roger should have net +700$ in house equity every month. But this math works only if the house price increase or stay constant and for people who put minimum down (not advocating this approach). For Roger the loss of potential income from his down payment balances the equation or takes him into red by couple of hundred dollars depending on percentage your portfolio earns.
#92
Move to Oilberta…low taxes, no rats… cheap housing soon to be… and we’ll be getting transfer payments soon!
Or the couple could move to Surrey BC where the kids could get stabbed ( murder capital of Canada) and the cut in grocery bills could feed the mortgage.
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/metro/Teen+beaten+stabbed+altercation+near+Whalley+Athletic+Park/10818082/story.html
I hear they’re building a lot of new condo’s there….jump in before they’re all gone….bwahahahahahahahaha lmfao
Zut alors, Roger, I forgot a couple of things – Je m’excuse.
My brother-in-law is Italian and he built us a wonderful backyard smoker/bbq. It puts out a lot of smoke, so because of prevailing wind directions you’ll need to keep the windows of your new home closed every Friday, Saturday and Sunday afternoon and evening (plus holiday Mondays) from Easter until Thanksgiving, maybe later if the weather is warm. You might want to repaint your house every five years or so, too, same reason.
And about that shared right-of-way between our houses – since you can’t really use it for your car I will be storing some extra stuff there like I always have before. Please don’t touch those crates and boxes, okay?
(Next time we can talk about my dogs……..)
Homeowners make the best neighbours, Roger, d’accord?
:)
#41 Randy Randerson on 02.16.15 at 7:46 pm
============
You have to understand that there is a big difference between a spouse asking and cajoling the other for something and issuing ultimatums.
There is nothing that stops a woman from just asking, and most men including myself, will give in, just for love, within reasonable bounds and get a house / condo, sooner or later.
An ultimatum is a different matter, it shows lack of love and respect, and isn’t conducive to a couple spending a lifetime together. When someone goes that route they need to be straightened out.
#5 Freedom First
“the woman is convinced buying a hose is best and when she wants one is the time to buy”
You could volunteer at the local Fire Dep’t . . .
Thanks to your Freudian typo, Freedom First, now every time I read “house” I think “hose”.
Hose-horny. Hoselust. Hoseproud. Hosing market. Hose-for-sale.
Thank goodnesss you didn’t type horse.
Working off an internet connection and living in the place of your dreams is already a reality these days. Productivity is higher, and everything can be tracked via screen captures and time logs. Low risk for the employer and more affordable living conditions for yourself. If you don’t believe this then you are living in the stone age. Just saving up until I max out my TFSA by the end of this year and then I am gone, I have already worked from home before and plan to do so with a new business. Well what if things go south? $10k a year in Thailand goes a long way, even for us needy Canadians.
There is foreign government bonds that are yielding 7% to 13%.
Why would anyone put there money in a GIC and especially one with a negative interest rate.
Ask the Japanese who did this as their currency has crashed against other currencies worldwide.
They got interest plus a currency gain on top of that the last 25 years.
All those that said it was risky are the same ones that lost 60% to 80% left in Japanese stocks, real estate.
Economics 101, capital flows to the higher payer and return on capital.
There are also others with lower risk that have 4.00% to 6.00% interest rates paid on government bonds.
He has to understand that with the larger payments vs renting he will have to work more to make up the difference and that’s not even including all the “upgrades”that will come along.He will then have to be away from the family more which will put more strain on the relationships with everyone and then he will take time off from the second job to make his wife and kids happy.This will last for about a month or two they will be back in the red and he will go back to working the second job,rinse and repeat.I have seen this exact scenario played out lots and the end result is divorce.Also don’t take any money from the parents because it will have a price tag which will be a lifetime of meddling
LALA
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Dont try to copy Smoking man.
To #102 Paul, talking about Thailand, they actually pay 3.6% interest on their longer term bonds.
My friend and his wife retired there in 2010 and sold their 2 houses netting $925,000 and put that in 4.77% Thailand bonds.
They live quite comfortably well on $44,000 a year in Thailand.
Roger, so rent a bigger place for $2500. Sounds like there are a lot of deals to be had in Montreal. A year from now make another decision.
The $44,000 a year is 1,115,920 Thailand Baht a year. The average annual wages, salaries in Thailand is about 163,000 baht.
BRIC bonds are the way to go
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/government-bond-yield
#66 Ret on 02.16.15 at 8:51 pm
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10% of Canadian homes heat with oil:
http://www41.statcan.gc.ca/2007/1741/grafx/htm/ceb1741_003_6-eng.htm#table
Garth
What is the portfolio rebalancing strategy in a rising interest rate market……most of the rebalancing I see mentioned here seems to be stocks versus bonds…
what do you think of the inverse ETFs, and interest rate hedged bond etfs discussed here
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-ways-play-rising-rates-125412123.html
#3 BC on 02.16.15 at 6:04 pm…
With that kind of budget scamfoolery we can no longer complain about real estate agents in BC.
They have been outdone by the wizardry of “now you see it, now you don’t” giving away all the resources in the province for pennies.
It does take much to figure out that BC will also be at the losing end of the stick when it comes to LNG.
They won’t likely tell the public that they have been robbing ICBC and BC Hydro for years – BC Hydro has an impossible amount of debt.
Not to mention the billions owed to resource extraction companies in unused credits.
Latest I heard from down south is Nestle is going to have to start paying for the water they take from their sources near Hope BC.
I thought a few pennies a litre would be fair, but no – poor water bottling companies like Nestle will have to ante up $ 2.25 for each million litres of water they use at their plant near Hope.
Which would buy two bottles of Nestle water at the local 7-11!
In the meantime, the average income-earner in BC is getting royally shafted by paying for all this corporate largess.
And no, I’m not a socialist – especially when it comes to corporate socialism.
It’s easy in BC to figure out what the Liberals are really telling us, however, just think the exact opposite of what they say! At least they have been consistent about this since 2001.
The wealth of Financial Freedom is never realized until you or a loved one is near death’s door.
Live life like it is your last day and don’t allow anyone to hold you financial hostage.
Best of luck in your decision.
#57 nonplused on 02.16.15 at 8:27 pm
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Read some interesting advice about raising kids…if you’re unhappy in your marriage, stick it out. Not only for financial reasons as you highlight, but also for not messing up future generations (and their subsequent marriages). Sure there are circumstances where divorce may be the only or ‘right’ option, but the point is to suck it up and do your best to make it work if you can.
hoseholds/open hose/hard to heat hose/large suburban hose/small hose downtown/the hose next door/rented hose/old hose/new hose/average hose price/hosing correction/your hose
The better halves can be pretty keen on horses too….
#93 Calgary Car Guy on 02.16.15 at 10:18 pm
I’m amused to see Freedom First has an acolyte. His very practical (and sometimes cynical) approach is certainly not mainstream, but works if you want those priorities in life. I do admire his honesty and forthrightness.
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#79 $200k portfolio on 02.16.15 at 9:17 pm
I have known a few single women earning good money who also had a house! If that’s important in a future mate, they are out there.
Rene the neighbour/EL James/Emma Zaun, etc.
I’m not always proud to be laughing, but your posts never fail to crack me up. :)
Canada’s GDP: 1.8 trillion
Canada’s federal debt: 620 billion
Canada’s federal debt as % of GDP
#93 Calgary Car Guy on 02.16.15 at 10:18 pm
I agree with that #5 post by Freedom First whole-heartedly. I can relate to his position but everybody is different. Some guys just have to have a woman in their life and some just…don’t. Unfortunately I disregarded my true feelings on the matter in 1993 and got married. The biggest mistake of my life bar none. I have now been paying alimony and child support (about 40% of my net pay) for 6 1/2 years and I have one more year to go. I have been reading this entertaining blog for about 5 (?) years now and it never ceases to amaze me to read how seemingly normal smart-thinking men throw everything away to satisfy their wife’s material desires. Especially the ones who seem to be worried about her leaving them. Get real. If the marriage was meant to be in the first place it shouldn’t matter where you live or whether you rent or own. It’s pathetic really. Grow a set. Yes, yes ladies I know I’ll always be single. You know what?–I’m pretty damn happy about that. My life doesn’t revolve around my groin. Freedom First.
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Nicely said bro.
Btw – what kind of cars do you flip…..cheers
Garth, don’t you mean $3,600?
Regardless, the analysis is missing:
1. The amount of the mortgage payment going to equity (yeah ownership) – for giggles let’s say $800ish
2. Estimated monthly maintenance costs (yeah renters) – to be really easy on owners let’s say $300ish
The sum of which I see decreasing the divide between ownership and renting in this example (to maybe 30%ish), but not to a point where ownership makes sense.
Anyone make the short-list?? land will be cheap.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/mars-one-6-canadians-make-short-list-for-1-way-trip-to-mars-1.2958782
Since men are so smart with money and women are so dumb, you smart men should clearly just marry each other.
Canada’s GDP: 1.8 trillion
Federal debt: 620 billion
Federal debt as % of GDP: 34.4%
Deficit: 0
USA GDP: 16.7 trillion
Federal Debt: 18 trillion
Debt as % of GDP: 1.07%
Deficit: 460 billion (but total debt increases by 1 trillion)
The USA is doing fine.
Canada is going to crash and burn.
I don’t understand Garth’s economics but from the numbers above, I would say Canada has a long way to go inflating the credit bubble to get to the stage where the US is.
#68 Smoking Man,
New Zealand seems a good bet. Just stay on the east coast. The west might get fallout from Australia.
#124 Kate on 02.17.15 at 12:37 am
Since men are so smart with money and women are so dumb, you smart men should clearly just marry each other.
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Not dumb, just nestful/horny as Garth puts it.
Regardless, you broads have been the smarter ones so far……cheers
Btw – Kate, you sound cute…
@Yogi Bera
Absolutely, I see an amazing amount of comments about oil on here where the people just don’t understand what is going on.
OPEC is a cartel which had for a long time the dominant market share which they used to artificially limit production to drive prices higher, new competitors in the US, Canada and elsewhere started to bring material new production which made these artificial limits untenable. OPEC has a lot of excess capacity at a much lower production cost then their newer competitors, and the key states (mainly the Saudis) are using that ability to drive prices low enough for long enough to bankrupt their new competitors removing supply or at the very least preventing investments that would bring even more excess supply on line. The Saudis have acknowledged this publicly and have also stated they will keep pumping for as long as necessary. For many of the nations in OPEC it is not a matter of a few hillbilly junior oil owners going bankrupt, it is very much an existential threat. If they can’t recover their excess margins in a few years their society could fall apart and a fair number of them could be wearing orange jumpers having their heads cut off.
Canada just joined the global currency war.
RRSP’s are stupid at this point, anyone with them just lost 20% on their purchasing power due to the oil drop and the subsequent rate drop and currency drop. That dream of retiring in Florida just got a lot more expensive.
Smoking Man is right, we are witnessing economic warfare between the Zionist-NATO countries and the BRICS countries, and right now the battle ground is commodities, trade, and currencies. If this escalates into arming proxy countries (Ukraine), we will be witnessing WW3 with nukes flying…
Think of what that will do to housing prices? Toronto will be a hotspot, a smoking radioactive hotspot…
Many of us want a permanent home but in Montreal you don’t need a $600,000 home. I know Montreal quite well and this is a lot of money for what they call a ‘cottage’ ( a detached urban single home). You don’t need to live in Beaconsfield.
Why not do what everyone else in Montreal does and buy a duplex or triplex. You get three bedrooms, garage and garden in your part but you also have income coming in.
Montreal is always the Canadian RE canary in the coal mine. RE drops first there and stays down longest there. When the market is down it can literally be impossible to sell in Montreal. I have the T shirt on this one.
Roger either go duplex or rent a bigger apt. Reduce your risk in this very volatile market.
3 bed 2 bath “not unreasonably big” for 650,000
My american friends are laughing.
@Freedom First and Calgary Car Guy: why not just cohabitation with/ marry a woman who has a higher net worth and higher income ?
I love all this talk about ‘Calgary Teetering’…as if some cowpoke in Montreal has any idea what’s going on….here in Wailea(the expensive part of Maui) it is teeming with Calgarians…we were down at Makena beach and I had my UofC shirt on which prompted a guy from Van to approach and ask if All of Calgary was here as that is all he was meeting.
If all the Eastern creeps and bums bugger off back to their walmart and timmies jobs in Ont and Newfie land then so be it, they can then look forward to regaling their grandkids about how good they once had it ‘out West’.
Mahalo!
@32 A bit of star stuff
So the “rented assholes” “keep switching every two years”
…to get away from the asshole next door?
#46 The Patient on 02.16.15 at 8:00 pm
#14 Bit of Star Stuff writes, “You are sad person Freedom. But hey have at it.”
Really, Bit of Star Stuff?
*********************
Freedom first is logical and a breath of fresh air. He is exercising his freedom in a proper fashion unlike you Star Stuff. As you can see he is not a push over. It’s like poking a bear…well a bear with manners.
Thank’s Yogi bear – the details about rail storage got me.
@34
Ya, thats why its proven ships operate better with two captains, countries run better with two presidents, companies with two CEO’s, Cars with two steering wheels.
Amazing how its obvious with everything else except relationships. More that crud is preached, the higher the divorce rates and family violence rises.
Be kind, take thoughts under advisement, put the other person first if it doesnt impact negatively on the all, make the final descision. Everyone else support it.
Smooth sailing.
54 Ogopogo on 02.16.15 at 8:24 pm
After reading case after case like this I’m so grateful for my wife. She’s become even more Garthian than I am! Just the other day I mentioned that if prices continue to crater in Kelowna it may become advantageous for us to buy. To which she replied: “What about mobility? I love our freedom right now!”
I kid you not. It sure helps that I keep her fully apprised of the galloping gains our balanced portfolio has made since 2011 (when I discovered this blog).
Ultimatums are for wusses. Find a partner that understands math, not “realtor math”
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Find the right partner for sure. My wife gets it and will wait to get what we envisioned. Mobility provides more opportunity.
On the case study:
He might want to try renting a bigger place for another 2 – 3 years (don’t go over board). Wait for a modest decrease and buy. What’s the hurry, spend a couple hundred more a month and get something bigger. Invest your cash, etc etc, continue. She wants something bigger they don’t have to own it do they?
http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/bank-mergers-defeated-by-ottawa/
A rather fascinating read of how Paul Martin store down the chairman of the Royal Bank of Canada, and calmly told him, despite theatrics, that there would be no Canadian bank mergers.
Ironically, over 15 years after that edict was issued, the Canadian banks emerged to be amongst the world’s best performers over that interval.
I personally believe the next ‘phase’ of political regulation of the banks is going to be the Finance Minister sitting down and telling the big-5 chartered banks that they must absorb insolvent Credit Unions, particularly in the Western Canadian provinces, even at short-term losses to their balance sheets. To avoid the spectre of forcing depositors/creditors in such institutions from taking losses as the RE and small business turns down more severely in the coming months/years.
Unfortunately for all of us, Paul Martin’s “vision” for Canadian banking was to turn the institutions into essentially guaranteed public institutions, by allowing the CMHC to run amuck in writing subprime mortgage insurance. Beginning late under his reign as finance minister, and ultimately as Prime Minister.
Isn’t much of the recent since 2008 US debt backed by US securities and mortgages? Much of these assets will be eventually sold back into the market (probably at a loss) wiping out alot of debt.
Lots of debt is good, it minimizes chinas holdings
Last comment @ john125
#121 aL pacino on 02.17.15 at 12:15 am
#93 Calgary Car Guy on 02.16.15 at 10:18 pm
I agree with that #5 post by Freedom First whole-heartedly. I can relate to his position but everybody is different. Some guys just have to have a woman in their life and some just…don’t. Unfortunately I disregarded my true feelings on the matter in 1993 and got married. The biggest mistake of my life bar none. I have now been paying alimony and child support (about 40% of my net pay) for 6 1/2 years and I have one more year to go. I have been reading this entertaining blog for about 5 (?) years now and it never ceases to amaze me to read how seemingly normal smart-thinking men throw everything away to satisfy their wife’s material desires. Especially the ones who seem to be worried about her leaving them. Get real. If the marriage was meant to be in the first place it shouldn’t matter where you live or whether you rent or own. It’s pathetic really. Grow a set. Yes, yes ladies I know I’ll always be single. You know what?–I’m pretty damn happy about that. My life doesn’t revolve around my groin. Freedom First.
****************************************
Nicely said bro.
Btw – what kind of cars do you flip…..cheers
******
Agreed – if I were to find myself single in the future. I’d go fishing every day I want to, leave my clothes in the living room yes…on the floor etc etc etc.
Paul :
I am already in Thailand. Let me know when you decide .
To #121 aL pacino
I don’t flip cars. I’m in the service department. BTW I find the title to tonight’s blog very apt. “Trapped” is how I have always felt in every single relationship I have ever been in (I’m 57). I’m just not meant for it. Unfortunately it took years and years of stress, depression, and a huge amount of money to figure that out. If you are not 100% sure that she is “the one and only” and that marriage is a truly joyous occasion for you then for god’s sake DON’T DO IT. The other thing that really gets me is how many unhappy couples stay together for purely financial reasons. They don’t want to give up their house, car, whatever. It’s just “stuff”. Life is not a dress rehearsal. Do what makes you happy and pay what it takes. For some that may mean buying your wife a house you can’t afford. For me it means buying my way back to being single. I’m going to have a huge party in May, 2016 when the alimony is over. It will be like being born again and a nice monthly raise to boot. :)
#38 Yogi Bear
You have most of that right. The part I would add is that the US Fed drove fracking way above what part of the oil supply it should be with ultra low financing. That is what will now be corrected and oil will go back to $80-100 per barrel. But not for a while we need to work off the false supply first. I can’t believe oil company CEO’s are so stupid. The US wants oil to be cheap to sink Russia and others and they don’t care they are sinking their own banks to do it. Well why not? All they have to do is print some money and bail them out. It’s global war, not economics.
#115 Bottoms_Up
Ya, you know, what about the kids? Nobody cares about the kids any more and based on how I was raised I don’t think they ever did. Mom screws around because it “enhances her individual enlightenment”. She don’t care shit about her kids and never did. My dad used to beat me horribly if he thought I embarrassed him in the slightest way around his friends (always after they left or they would have beat his ass) but did he ever watch me play basketball? Only once and he declared it a complete waste of his time. Wish he never came. But it was my fault I knew he wasn’t working and asked him to come. Big mistake. All you kids out there who might be reading this, your parents are assholes and you should avoid them. All you parents, “leave the kids alone”.
(over and over you are just another brick in the wall.)
Go ahead buy it im waiting for all you greater fools to buy so i get an even better deal!
I can see the future. I can also see the past. It is a supernatural gift that comes from mathematics and linguistics. In other word understanding what can be computed and what is said.
The math part is easy if you have a reasonable education. The linguistics takes some work.
I wasn’t born with all my abilities, they have grown over time with much meditation. But maybe it is still a gift.
Listen to what world leaders are saying. Look at what they are doing. We are screwed. Garth may have found the secret to investing. Great news. But we won’t survive Fukashima alone, let alone what happens to the other nuke plants after the Ukraine starts WWIII. We are all dead soon. Do what you want. Neither you or anybody else will be here in 10 years.
The warmongers think they will survive, but they cannot. But because they insanely believe something so untrue, they proceed. They will die too, and as fast as the rest, but they cannot understand because they have Dog. Dog cannot save them. They believe falsely, they are insane, but they believe strongly and they act on their beliefs.
10 years, bombs, lights out. Might be a lot quicker than that.
Thus spoke nonplusedrodamous.
Garth,
There are more and more calls among respected analysts and economists predicting a slowdown in both equity markets and vehicles for fixed income for years to come. I’m not talking about the Domers that are predicting a crash like your Friday night entry addressed.
You’ve warned your readers almost nightly about the hazards for Canadian real estate going forward and you’ve be doing so for years now.
It would be nice to see one of your nightly entries talk about the deceleration of the finacial markets and what lies ahead for investors. Especially how rising interest rates, rising p/e ratios, disinflation, slowing corporate growth, anemic global growth and currency wars may impact your model balanced and diversified portfolio.
The point of such a portfolio is mitigate against the unknown by having a range of assets, the correct weightings and built-in hedging. Those who overthink the future usually end up paralyzed by it. — Garth
#124 Kate on 02.17.15 at 12:37 am
————————————————
Not sure why people use sweeping generalizations. I know of many couples where the woman controls the finances. I’d be curious to know the gender breakdown of bankruptcy statistics.
#50 Redd Foxx
Yeah but who wants to live in Acapulco? The weather’s never crap, the food’s too good, the housing’s too affordable, neighbors too nice, etc.
It’d get boring the instant you realized that you’re actually living and not just lemming.
FWIW – I still dont think the Fed raises rates in 2015
Roger,don’t buy a house. Like all murdering psychopaths, houses hide their hearts of darkness behind a charming mask. Don’t be fooled. Ted Bundy was a pretty boy too.
Despite their disguises,psychopaths are ruthless and have zero empathy for others. They care only about themselves. Your house will reveal these evil traits shortly after you sign the mortgage papers-right around the time you’re worrying that the bank owns you. Wrong! The house owns you.
Your most precious commodity(infinitely more valuable than money)is your time. Your time will now and forevermore be sucked into a black hole quaintly known as routine maintenance.
Don’t get me wrong. There will be leisure time for you too, after you get done (“done” as in never) with the fertilizing, weeding, pruning, caulking, weather stripping, painting, shoveling sidewalks and roofs, painting, cleaning gutters, replacing countertops, fixing leaks,did I mention painting?, stripping and refinishing flooring.
Leisure time will now consist of collapsing in exhaustion onto the couch and arguing about the latest batch of color chips. That’s if you still have a significant other to argue with because houses are the uncontested masters of murdering a formerly happy relationship. Weapon of choice? Stress.
Oh,and not to worry too much about what the inside of your house looks like. The decor in your local Home Depot is much more important because that’s where you’ll be spending most of your time. This is what the realtors mean by location, location, location: Choose a house nearest the Home Depot that best tickles your esthetic senses.
Now, your wife. She sounds like an angel to me. In our positively inhospitable climate we’re forced indoors for months at a time. Get that poor woman more room and into some larger rented digs ASAP. It’s a miracle your wife hasn’t cracked up. Husband,myself and 90 lb dog in 2300 sq ft and believe me I am bouncing off the walls during our lo-o-o-o-ng winter.
Houses are a nice dream. The reality is usually a nightmare. If you want a life – rent!
#145 and #147………uh…….wow……..
The ceasefire is NOT holding in Ukraine.
Greece will default by Friday.
Chaos coming very soon. Be prepared. :( :( :(
You were more credible when you were Apocalypse2014. — Garth
This blog is scary …. just read the comments section … wow!
@ nonplused
“Ya, you know, what about the kids? Nobody cares about the kids any more and based on how I was raised I don’t think they ever did. ”
********************************************
Are you a boomer? Lots of the boomers I know grew up that way.
It was WW2. The men came back psychologically damaged… for life. They were a silent bunch who mostly kept everything bottled up inside and didn’t talk about the war much with their own family. Saved that for their drinking buddies. And drink they did. Can’t blame them but it was usually their wives and children who paid the price when they regularly exploded. Happy families.
BTW- They’re not insane at the top. They are psychopaths. Big difference.
Cautionary tale from a one horse town. Perth has a nice skyline, kind of a Calgary look, minus the mountains.
http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/finding/residential-investment/suburb-spotlights/40136-port-hedland-s-price-plummet-can-it-recover.html
http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/latest-wa-real-estate-figures-show-jump-in-homes-for-sale-in-perth/story-fndbaln9-1227210980570
Just reading some of the comments and shared some with the spouse. Some outright good laughs, a few gems of wisdom, and as usual- a lot of pure crazy. What’s with this blog that attracts all the crazies? Sheesh, it’s a financial blog for goodness sakes.
#31 Musty: “Don’t forget that if you choose to buy now, factor in the cost of your resentment that you are bound to harbour. That resentment will cost your marriage big time too.”
**********************
If he puts his foot down, factor in her growing resentment. Works both ways. Compromise is needed. Perhaps a 3-bdrm 2-bath HOUSE close to school, parks, with a big backyard– room to spread their wings?
Rented, of course….
Your right about the Tax situation in Quebec..Its way out of Hand, and only getting worst as time goes on. I feel sorry for our kids . : (
for the 604’s here;
Translink CEO is more highly paid than President Obama.
The management has spent 200M for a failed card/turnstile system.
Of course Translink must find the best talent to compete with all the other bus services in the area. (oops, there are none)
VOTE NO ON TRANSIT REFERENDUM.
Don’t send them another penny before this gigantic money wasting hole is backfilled.
Didsbury or Dontsbury. There’s a new gun in town.
http://didsburyreview.ca/article/20150217/DID0801/302179980/-1/did0801
66 Ret on 02.16.15 at 8:51 pm
“What % of homes still use heating oil?”
Good question. I found Lilliput’s argument suspect as well, but we may as well answer that question. Nationwide, according to StatCan, 9% of homes heat with oil. That’s barely more popular than wood. Apparently, only 1% use propane (I know some of these idiots, and even in Hamilton).
In the U.S., 10% of homes use heating oil or propane (according to the EIA). It’s highly concentrated in rural regions of some parts of the country. So you’re right that Lilliput is wrong: if temperatures continent-wide dropped to -50, it probably wouldn’t be a significant pressure on oil prices.
Bwaaaahhahahahahahahaha….you just need to live long enough and every prophecy comes true.
TORONTO, Feb 17 (Reuters) – Sales of existing homes in Canada slipped further in January as the drop in oil prices hurt homebuyer demand in western Canada, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) said on Tuesday, with one analyst saying seller panic has set in.
The association, the industry group for Canadian real estate agents, said sales activity was down 3.1 percent last month from December, the third consecutive monthly decline.
The data suggested Canada’s prolonged housing boom may finally be ending after more than five years of rising sales that pushed home prices to record highs.
Canada escaped the U.S. housing crash due largely to more prudent lending standards, but the long boom and high consumer debt levels have raised fears of a U.S.-style collapse.
Prices, which lag sales, remained 5.2 percent higher than a year earlier, according to CREA’s home price index.
Actual sales for January, not seasonally adjusted, were down 2.0 percent from the same month in 2014, the first year-over-year decline since April 2014.
A sharp and sustained drop in oil prices has sideswiped the economy in the resource-rich provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan, where homeowners are trying to sell their houses before values drop further.
“What is interesting to note about the housing measures is that there is a clear sense of panic,” Mazen Issa, senior Canada macro strategist at TD Securities, said in a research note.
#163 rosie “moving forward” in the knowledge that, “this won’t end well” on 02.17.15 at 11:22 am
Wow!! Great article. That didn’t take long … The Alberta Wildrose party strategy to take over the Conservative Party from within is moving along.
#156 Sky
Your assessment of the psychological state of returning WWII vets is accurate. Lots of PTSD daddies hitting the bottle while trying to hold a job. Anxious mothers holding dysfunctional families together praying their husbands would not go off the deep end.
Meanwhile, us kids bungled our way through a mediocre school system with a minimum of mollycoddling. That’s just what we called life in the 1950’s. But it was better than the two preceding decades. At least they were smart enough to vaccinate us against smallpox and polio.
Irrational exuberance… Ramp up baby, ramp up. Rinse and repeat. SHIFT happens…
If called out to make my predictions on real estate I’d say in two year’s time we will have reached breakpoint and poised to crash down to another real estate”correction”. Thing is no one will ever truly know as you can’t time the markets. You’ll have to wait another seven years from then to know we had actually hit that low and waiting things will only have ramped up once again while you claimed it was a “dead cat bounce”.
So when is the best time to get into the market? You tell me. Never or RFN?
I would like to throw in an other angle in the own or rent argument.
We bought a house in TO in 2000 for $275K, with $20K down payment.
In 2010 the house served as collateral for a $100K loan to cover expenses for our kid to achieve her dream, to become a doctor, now she has started her practice.
With the house appraised by the bank at $850K in 2010 we had no problem to support her goal.
I appreciate that no one could predict this level of growth, it may have been less certain than 7% return on investment on the stock market. Maybe we just got very lucky with the timing.
Maybe an investment portfolio would have done the trick as well, but maybe not.
Any thoughts?
Did you realize the $650K capital gain? Did your doctor daughter pay you back? Then what money have you ‘made’? — Garth
#147 nonplusedrodamous
In 1973 I was making doomer prognostications very similar to yours. I was a young, ignorant and bitter 22 year old. Quite unlike the self-satisfied modern day genius I have become since I began reading this blog.
#38 Yogi Bear
You have most of that right. The part I would add is that the US Fed drove fracking way above what part of the oil supply it should be with ultra low financing.
Cheap Fed money made it easier for marginal suppliers to issue junk bonds and start operations, but the majority of fracking operations are not marginal and would have gone online anyways. At best, it means the oil price drop occurs a little later than it actually did.
That is what will now be corrected and oil will go back to $80-100 per barrel. But not for a while we need to work off the false supply first.
So what, you think fracking is going away? It’s not. It’s true that most of what was initially thought to be frackable shale oil reserves is actually not, but there’s enough recoverable oil there for many, many years of accelerating production.
Short of a geopolitical event such as a war or OPEC buckling to its less fiscally prudent members and curbing production in a big way, the supply-demand equilibrium is a long ways off.
I can’t believe oil company CEO’s are so stupid.
It’s not simply a matter of myopic CEOs. Game theory goes a long way to explaining what we’re seeing play out in the oil industry today.
#168 Lucky on 02.17.15 at 12:28 pm
I would like to throw in an other angle in the own or rent argument.
We bought a house in TO in 2000 for $275K, with $20K down payment.
In 2010 the house served as collateral for a $100K loan to cover expenses for our kid to achieve her dream, to become a doctor, now she has started her practice.
With the house appraised by the bank at $850K in 2010 we had no problem to support her goal.
I appreciate that no one could predict this level of growth, it may have been less certain than 7% return on investment on the stock market. Maybe we just got very lucky with the timing.
Maybe an investment portfolio would have done the trick as well, but maybe not.
Any thoughts?
Did you realize the $650K capital gain? Did your doctor daughter pay you back? Then what money have you ‘made’? — Garth
——————————————————-
My situation is almost identical to Lucky’s (house, not daughter). And yes Garth I am cashing in next year. In the meanwhile I’ll save $30K in rent ($2500/month) and conservatively the house will be up in value another $35k. So what’s your point Garth?
When you expect another $35,000 gain in the value of your house my point is obvious. — Garth
#162 bdy sktrn on 02.17.15 at
RE: translink …
AGREE 100%!!
Vote NO to more taxes to give to those bozos!
Question isn’t there also a lot of frackable oil in other parts of the world that haven’t gotten around to extracting it yet?
Seems this could have a big impact on the world market too, the way the US fracking has?
Now CREA says we should consider national stats ex-Calgary and Edmonton. Seems like just yesterday they were offering us numbers ex-Toronto and Vancouver.
I wish MY portfolio got two mulligans every month. I could shade my performance numbers depending on whether I was bragging (not that I do) or filing my taxes.
#168 Lucky on 02.17.15 at 12:28 pm
Did you realize the $650K capital gain? Did your doctor daughter pay you back? Then what money have you ‘made’? — Garth
You don’t “make” money you “earn“ it.
If your home goes up in value, pretty safe bet that so too have all others in the hood. If everyone else’s has home value has tanked, pretty safe bet that so too has your own. So, at the end of the day, your even Steven you haven’t “made” a cent but you are “IN” the market unless you get out or are not yet “IN”.
Investing in financials? You are paid for your risk and opportunity cost – or loss thereof. So you have earned money despite people thinking they “made” it.
Speculating is a gamble. Some win, some lose. Big risk – Big rewards potentially. Vegas didn’t build the strip with money THEY lost.
};-)
That made even less sense than usual. — Garth
#133
here in Wailea(the expensive part of Maui) it is teeming with Calgarians…we were down at Makena beach and I had my UofC shirt on which prompted a guy from Van to approach and ask if All of Calgary was here as that is all he was meeting.
+++++
Tell me about it — half the staff on our office floor is heading to Maui in the next 6 weeks, all independently of each other. I’m changing plans — I don’t want to vacation with or around people I see every day. Maui isn’t big enough.
Ralph Cramdown
Now CREA says we should consider national stats ex-Calgary and Edmonton. Seems like just yesterday they were offering us numbers ex-Toronto and Vancouver.
…………..
So lets see…. Ex Van, ex TO, ex Calgary, ex Edmonton….
Too funny, nice stats !
So, exactly at which CITIES are we looking??
Birds of a feather, flock together…
The survival mechanism of birds is to gather as a flock. You can especially see how the flock mentality plays out in those tiny birds who fly from tree to tree eating the berries left over from last Autumn.
The flock targets a tree, and each bird instinctually look up for predators between eating a berry. The longer they are at the same tree, the more paranoid they get – their watch for predators becomes longer and longer between berries, until finally it becomes too uncomfortable to stay….. then one panics and goes, followed by another, until the last one leaves.
I believe that we also have this instinct as humans. Our policies and behaviour have shown this time and time again. Although some early adopters and late leavers get rewarded with extra berries, generally, you want to stay with the flock for your own protection.
With that said, I am very curious to know where the next tree is….. housing has been picked over…. equities are showing signs that the berries are running out…. start ups are interesting, but not for the common bird.
I don’t see anything on the horizon? If you do, please let me know!
My poor,dear nonplusedrodamous( #147),
May I call you Zarathustra? Madame Zelda feels your pain but she does not share it.
I have gazed deep into my crystal ball and have discovered there is no need to fear the upcoming A bombs . The western ancients have provided us with the solution. Simply duck and cover.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1MQ4eyg6U4
PS- you should already know this if your powers of looking into the future and past are as remarkable as you claim. I smell a rat. Stick with Madame Zelda, people. Cut rates, special discounts on full moon Tuesdays. 100% guaranteed prophesies or your money back ( nuclear holocausts excluded).
R.E. Relationships.
I think some of you might benefit from ‘swallowing the Red Pill’ when it comes to relationships. Especially marriage. I did a few years ago, it was a very bitter taste, but I got over it, and my marriage is immeasurably better.
There’s a reason divorce rates are so high. Equal relationships don’t work..at least not in the long term.
What generally happens is everything becomes a mass of indecision, and eventually the man defers to the woman who ends up making all the decision….we end up with the browbeaten ‘Yes Dear’ husband. If the wife is in charge of the relationship…she will subconsciously hate it and respect her husband less, and the sex life will tank. The husband becomes the boring ‘beta’ provider, and the wife ends up having an affair with the hunk down at the gym.
Feminism is dead wrong. Woman want strong confident independent men who lead. They don’t want to be in charge the whole time in relationships.
Google the Red Pill……Consider this the Garth Turner of Marriage relationship advice.
I wish this advice had been around 20 years ago when I married.
You’re welcome….
#100 Hawk on 02.16.15 at 10:52 pm
If a woman gives a man an ultimatum, I don’t see how a man can simply straighten things out. You see, if you try to explain to the woman that an ultimatum expresses a lack of love and respect, the woman can easily counter that by not buying her a house (or whatever she desires at the moment), that the man is also showing a lack of love and respect.
The same thing applies to signing pre-nups. The woman can easily counter with “Don’t you trust and love me, honey? If you truly do, we don’t need to sign a pre-nup.” Man is the villain and woman is the victim. Can you imagine what would happen if the roles were reversed and the man counters with the same argument? He’d be laughed off. In this scenario the woman would be praised for being strong and independent.
Such is our society now, a man in a relationship cannot lead it because he’ll be labeled as a misogynist.
Ok I see Garth’s admin has deleted the link I gave which defeats the whole point of my post.
Google Athol Kay, Married Men Sex life, etc. to gain the ‘Red Pill’ insight in husband/wife realtionships.
Sadly, this is not a sex blog. — Garth
@ #175
That made even less sense than usual. — Garth
Proven fact – the human mind is incapable of multitasking.
Should have just quit at; You don’t “make” money your ”earn” it. Just thought I’d be nice and give you both a bone – well try to.
Ok, truly getting disgusted at the frightened men posting about how their lives are ruined by women.
Your worst fears have been realized.
You don’t have a functioning set.
Now can we move on?
Taxes are crushing(especially in Quebec) and will get worse-Garth
Roger, Quebec is the poster child for chronic and criminal mismanagement and overspending, the future looks very bleak financially for that province. When you factor all the financial obligations from direct debt/indirect debt,program obligations, unfunded liabilities, for fiscal year 2011/12 it hit $955.7 billion. And it is only now that for 2015/16 talk about doing any thing constructive might take place to deal with this financial train wreck.
Roger, sit tight, stay the course, debt free and flush with cash. You are doing everything right!
“Sadly, this is not a sex blog. — Garth”
Oh, come on Garth….. I believe the term “moist virgins” has been thrown around by you on more than one occasion! ;-)
And just to actually echo Crusty Clarke’s sentiment. Although the psychology defies logic, women certainly do want an alpha male. Go figure???
From this blog, I have learned a lot about marriage.
Thank you to Garth and all.
#174 Ralph Cramdown on 02.17.15 at 1:14 pm
Now CREA says we should consider national stats ex-Calgary and Edmonton. Seems like just yesterday they were offering us numbers ex-Toronto and Vancouver.
—————————–
c’mon, you know enough about stats to see both are cases of looking at a data set with the outliers from a normal distribution removed, albeit in either direction.
both are cases of useful data, are thay not?
i think canada numbers ex-AB are relevant if we expect a fall off in that area.
Did you realize the $650K capital gain? Did your doctor daughter pay you back? Then what money have you ‘made’? — Garth
—-
I did not “make” any money on the house – or I “made” the same way as in my financial portfolio, which has not been cashed out, therefore the capital gain is on paper on both asset.
The unrealized capital gain in the house enabled though to get loan, without the need to sell the house.
It also allowed me to keep my investment portfolio.
I don’t know if I could have gotten the $100K loan for my (unsold) investment portfolio, as a security and still help my kid, which is a special kind of “capital gain” or ROI, at least for me, it feels as satisfying as making 7%.
113 Snowboid on 02.16.15 at 11:37 pm
There’s nothing new about BC governments giving away the farm. The Socreds sold the old Expo lands around False Creek to Li Ka Shing for only a few hundred million and that land was really worth billions. Li was laughing all the way to the bank.
Ha John McCain flipping out on Twitter, insane rants..
Seams the entire Ukrainian army is disintegrating, command and control, has abandoned the kids they put in harms way.
They are talking orders via cell phones from there Mons, leave, serender.
I think that’s it for the chocolate King.
But what a waste of young lives on either side of this..
This civil war was so un nesasary. Necons, where is your next sadistic adventure?
Million dollars un-destructed view to Downtown, North Shore & Ocean. Quality custom designed by famous “Formwerks Architect” & built by prestigious R.J Reynolds. This contemporary but classical design was built to optimize the panoramic view with top quality, wood window, geothermal air-cond & heating, hi-tech wiring and even separate nanny quarters in the back yard. Must see to appreciate!
4226 West 8th Ave, Vancouver V6R 1Z8 MLS® V1105510
5 Bedrooms 4 Full Bathrooms 2 Half Bathrooms 4,367 Sq Ft 7,362 Sq Ft Lot Built 2002
$8,380,000
Est. $27,333 /month
……..
Gotta wonder what a DEstructed view would go for…
Just low balled a dealer for a brand new camaro 12k below MRSP.
To my surprise, we are now 4k apart, and looks like they will come down further.
Times do change.
#3 BC
So a deficit of $2.7B and $2.0B in the next 2 years, that’s painted as a surplus.
Must be an election year!
Garth:
In your argument of renting versus owning, you fail to include two items in favour of owning.
Over time, what about the repayment of the principal? isn’t that a saving that is returned upon selling. And average appreciation (3% annually) of property over time (with the added benefit of leverage!)
#148 Edward
Garth, your following response to above comment is so true. I have been a victim of such overthinking.
—————————————————————
point of such a portfolio is mitigate against the unknown by having a range of assets, the correct weightings and built-in hedging. Those who overthink the future usually end up paralyzed by it. — Garth
Sadly, this is not a sex blog. — Garth
———————-
What about the house-horny virgins?
jane24: Montreal is always the Canadian RE canary in the coal mine. RE drops first there and stays down longest there. When the market is down it can literally be impossible to sell in Montreal. I have the T shirt on this one.
that got my attention
The Socreds sold the old Expo lands around False Creek to Li Ka Shing for only a few hundred million and that land was really worth billions. Li was laughing all the way to the bank.
—————-
Li Ka Shing owns the bank.
#186 Nerf Herder
Actually women need a mix of alpha and beta behaviors to remain attracted to their husbands. If one is missing then thats were problems start. Usually the husband becomes entirely beta, a suplicating servant paying the bills. His wife will love him but isnt physically attracted to him,but she doesnt know why. She’s missing the dopamine fom the alpha behaviour.
Be the strong confident leader your wife desires. Be in charge of the finances. Have your own sh*t together basically. You’re the captain, she’s first officer.
It all comes down to mate selection in the first place. Get that wrong and you are pooped.
Feminism be damned. If the man is not the head of the household attraction and relationship issues will surface.
#205 Smoking Man on 02.14.15 at 10:00 pm
http://dyslexicsmokingman.blogspot.ca/2015/02/i-snaped-this-in-vegas.html
I took this pic in Vegas, it’s going to be the book pic..
I’m the green guy…
_____________________________________________
That’s great I was worried you were the other creature in the photo!
Jesus Christ Smoking Man you’re just a kid!
oh goodie the losers from /r/theredpill have arrived on your blog Garth. pretty soon every comment thread will be about cuckolding and Tinder pickup lines.
#191 Smoking Man on 02.17.15 at 2:46 pm
Ha John McCain flipping out on Twitter, insane rants..
Seams the entire Ukrainian army is disintegrating, command and control, has abandoned the kids they put in harms way.
They are talking orders via cell phones from there Mons, leave, serender.
I think that’s it for the chocolate King.
But what a waste of young lives on either side of this..
This civil war was so un nesasary. Necons, where is your next sadistic adventure?
____________________________________________
So you are going to get your wish Smoking Man!
ISIS end game: Apocalypse
http://www.cnn.com/
http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/16/opinion/bergen-isis-enemies/index.html
Canadian home sales drop 3.1% as ‘sense of panic’ sweeps western markets
http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/17/canadian-home-sales-drop-3-1-as-sense-of-panic-sweeps-western-markets/
A sharp and sustained drop in oil prices has sideswiped the economy in the resource-rich provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan, where homeowners are trying to sell their houses before values drop further.
“What is interesting to note about the housing measures is that there is a clear sense of panic,” Mazen Issa, senior Canada macro strategist at TD Securities, said in a research note.
Issa said Alberta and Saskatchewan were the epicenter of housing-related weakness in January, with sales down 24% in Calgary, 10% in Edmonton, 7% in Regina and 18% in Saskatoon.
“While national new listings were up by a modest 0.7% in January (after a 1.3% increase in December), the regional breakdown reveals a rush of homeowners looking to obtain top dollar before their respective regional housing market nosedives on the price,” Issa said.
“Did you realize the $650K capital gain? …. ”
You need to sell in order to realize the gain (no different for financial assets), but then you need to move and start paying rent. So, your tax free gains now need to be put to work (probably in the markets) to earn taxable gains enough to cover your rent elsewhere.
The question is … do you believe your financial assets will hold their value better than your big city house.
Well, $650K invested for a 7% return is $3,800 a month. In other words, sell, rent and live for free, with your profit harvested. — Garth
“Sadly, this is not a sex blog.” — Garth
Actually it is Garth, you just don’t realise it.
EVERYTHING is about sex. Our entire society at a core level is simply men being the providers in exchange for regular access to you know what.
You parade a constant stream of pu**y whipped beta males too scared to stand up to their partners less they lose access to that sacred resource that only a woman can provide. And as a result they end up in life long debt.
It’s called Hooker maths…..what’s the average cost of that ‘roll in the hay’ vs a hooker….
Crude….but the truth.
Someone please tell me where I could be safely earning 7% annually paid in cash monthly or quarterly and I will put $100,000 in right now.
Doesn’t exist. You have relatively safe dividend stocks on one end, BCE, TRP, RY etc. paying an average of 3-4%. Yes then do tend to raise their dividend and the stock prices tends to go up. Still no where near that 7% overall. I am aware there are much riskier stocks paying over 7%. Not something anyone should be recommending people put their life savings into though.
A 60/40 balanced portfolio averaged 7.4% over the last decade, which included the GFC. — Garth
#202 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 02.17.15 at 4:25 pm
Dude McCain is losing it, keep him away from big red buttons..
You ever read the day after Roswell. By Col Phillip Corso. He reported to General Trudeau, back in your flying days..
Like to know your take on it.
http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2015/02/17/ontario-public-sector-workers-protest-against-wage-freeze.html
Hundreds of public sector workers from across the province gathered at Queen’s Park Tuesday to protest the austerity measures they say the province wants to impose on them.
Without a contract since Dec. 31, the union is decrying the government’s contract proposal of four more years with no wage increase. OPSEU, representing 35,000 provincial employees, received a strike mandate of more than 90 per cent from its members in early November.
Speaking the crowd in -15 Celsius temperatures, union president Warren (Smokey) Thomas delivered a message to Premier Kathleen Wynne and Treasury Board President Deb Matthews.
“Come to the bargaining table, get all those Draconian concessions off the table, bargain fairly (and) you will get a contract,” he said.
Thomas said instead of being a friend of public sector workers the Liberals “come with something worse than (former Tory leader) Tim Hudak or (former Tory premier) Mike Harris or any right-winger could have ever dreamed up.”
“I truly believe Kathleen Wynne thought ‘we can make OPSEU fold up real fast’ and they were wrong,” he said adding, “we didn’t pick this fight but we will damn well finish this fight.”
Quick question for Roger. What stopped you from buying 6, 7 years ago?
Did I not notice it was April 1st?
Odd, I thought it would be much higher at this point.
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Layoff+notices+2015/10820069/story.html
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WOMEN: The rent vs buy debate
hosted by Crusty Clark
“Doesn’t exist. You have relatively safe dividend stocks on one end, BCE, TRP, RY etc. paying an average of 3-4%. Yes then do tend to raise their dividend and the stock prices tends to go up. Still no where near that 7% overall.”
Are you kidding? The TSX is trading at a P/E of roughly 15, which means that each year, it produces $1 in earnings for each $15 invested at the current price. Additionally, earnings tend to grow alongside the economy, at a rate higher than inflation. Nominal economic growth has been in the 3-5% range for a very, very long time, implying a total long-term return of between 9% and 12%. And that’s just one component of a balanced portfolio, as Garth points out.
Dividend yields are just one component of return, and represent cash that has been deemed, by the Board, to be surplus to the business.
http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/17/alberta-oil-services-company-trinidad-drilling-cuts-one-in-five-salaried-workers-slashes-capital-spending-by-50/?__lsa=a0db-2632
Trinidad Drilling Ltd. is laying off one in five salaried employees, enacting a 7% across-the-board wage cut and trimming its executive salaries and directors’ fees by 10% to deal with reduced activity due to low oil and gas prices.
The Calgary-based driller also announced Tuesday it would cut its capital spending plan by 50% from $350 million to $175 million for 2015.
“We feel that a prudent approach to the coming year is important and have chosen to lower our capital expenditure level from 2014,” said president and chief executive Lyle Whitmarsh in a news release.
#188 bdy sktrn — “c’mon, you know enough about stats to see both are cases of looking at a data set with the outliers from a normal distribution removed, albeit in either direction.”
If you’ve got a useful reason to remove some data, that you’ve decided on beforehand, and you do it consistently, that’s one thing.
Picking out inconvenient data, different every month, after the fact? Just telling stories.
And excluding Toronto and Vancouver? I don’t know about CREA’s juked stats, but for the Teranet HPI, they together make up over 1/2 the weighted data… it’d be more accurate a picture of national wealth to use JUST them and exclude everywhere else.
http://www.housepriceindex.ca/
US 10-year rate is up 6% today.
Insurance company stocks are up, starting with Industrielle Alliance at +4%.
There’s a real expectations that rates are going up, in the US.
Of course they are. — Garth
#206 fred on 02.17.15 at 4:40 pm
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You need to read Garth’s past entries. Own ETFs that mimic the SP500, the TSX, Bonds, Preferreds, REITs.
#206 fred — “Someone please tell me where I could be safely earning 7% annually paid in cash […]”
Nowhere. And don’t believe anyone who tells you different. Safety or 7%, your choice, but you don’t get both.
Long-term investors will tell you otherwise. Those who fret about monthly fluctuations should learn to live on next-to-nothing returns. — Garth
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/retailer-bikini-village-files-creditor-protection-stores-remain-183739454.html
MONTREAL – Quebec-based swimwear retailer Groupe Bikini Village Inc. filed for bankruptcy protection Tuesday in order to gain time to find a partner or buyer after posting a series of million-dollar quarterly losses.
The company said it needs cash in order to help it reach profitability after announcing it is seeking creditor protection under the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act…
While Dumas wouldn’t give details about his firm’s restructuring strategy, he said “everything is on the table,” including closing some of the company’s 52 stores in Eastern Canada.
Bikini Village says it will continue to operate its stores “in the ordinary course of business” and has not confirmed any job cuts.
The firm employs 400 people.
Long-term investors will tell you otherwise. Those who fret about monthly fluctuations should learn to live on next-to-nothing returns. — Garth
But he didn’t want safety on average over the long term. He wanted it monthly, paid in cash. Which makes him a sucker for syndicated mortgage salesmen, touts for non-traded REITs, and all the other garbage that get sold to greedy people who fear volatility.
If you convince enough people like him not to fear the volatility, the risk premium goes down, and I only get 6.5%.
#215
Also add in the utes. Down almost 10% from highs. Market has been rotating in an orderly way it seems.
We may be factoring in better growth due to lower oil. This is great news for markets.
That ten year almost forever downtrend is going to be challenged. Doesn’t necessarily mean a rocket upwards. Slow and steady it seems.
Ha Ha… Canada extends deadline for immigrant investor program.
Not only do you have to speak English, but you got to have 10 Million as well.. lol
#214 Ralph Cramdown on 02.17.15 at 5:05 pm
#188 bdy sktrn — “c’mon, you know enough about stats to see both are cases of looking at a data set with the outliers from a normal distribution removed, albeit in either direction.”
If you’ve got a useful reason to remove some data, that you’ve decided on beforehand, and you do it consistently, that’s one thing.
Picking out inconvenient data, different every month, after the fact? Just telling stories.
And excluding Toronto and Vancouver? I don’t know about CREA’s juked stats, but for the Teranet HPI, they together make up over 1/2 the weighted data… it’d be more accurate a picture of national wealth to use JUST them and exclude everywhere else.
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This is why Canada wide sales statistics are useless
#188 bdy sktrn
You can prove anything, if you exclude numbers you don’t like. If the outliers on each direction cancel each other out, why take them out? And if they don’t, that shows a trend, does it not?
#204 young & foolish
Garth, I assume your reply of 3800/month at 7% on 650k includes capital gains too.
I would be interested to know what percentage of this is income and what portion is capital gains.
thanks
Take the cash as return of capital. The mix of dividends, interest and cap gains will fluctuate over time. — Garth
#132 Nattie
My Freedom is not for sale. I have my own money because I always put my Freedom First. I had a very wealthy girlfriend who badly wanted to marry me. My answer, no. I live alone. Period.
#180 Crusty Clarke on 02.17.15 at 1:34 pm
R.E. Relationships.
I think some of you might benefit from ‘swallowing the Red Pill’ when it comes to relationships. Especially marriage. I did a few years ago, it was a very bitter taste, but I got over it, and my marriage is immeasurably better.
There’s a reason divorce rates are so high. Equal relationships don’t work..at least not in the long term.
What generally happens is everything becomes a mass of indecision, and eventually the man defers to the woman who ends up making all the decision….we end up with the browbeaten ‘Yes Dear’ husband. If the wife is in charge of the relationship…she will subconsciously hate it and respect her husband less, and the sex life will tank. The husband becomes the boring ‘beta’ provider, and the wife ends up having an affair with the hunk down at the gym.
Feminism is dead wrong. Woman want strong confident independent men who lead. They don’t want to be in charge the whole time in relationships.
Google the Red Pill……Consider this the Garth Turner of Marriage relationship advice.
I wish this advice had been around 20 years ago when I married.
You’re welcome….
____________________________________________
no smack down for promoting misogynistic communities on your blog, Garth? If these types of comments continue to proliferate women won’t want to come back and engage in the comments section. There are plenty of men who lust for houses and spend foolishly, don’t make this into a gendered issue when it is not.
Where is the misogyny? — Garth
#223. The outlier is the truth. It’s been thrown out for a while.
The world has not seen this quick a collapse in RE. It’s astonishing. They don’t know what to do about it.
“The world has not seen this quick a collapse in RE. It’s astonishing. They don’t know what to do about it.”
Where? Toronto/Vancouver/Calgary prices have only been falling minorly over the past 2 years. Hardly a ‘collapse’ by any means. Which is why the RE boards have been able to, at least temporarily, even convince the gullible that prices have been rising.
#206 fred on 02.17.15 at 4:40 pm
Someone please tell me where I could be safely earning 7% annually paid in cash monthly or quarterly and I will put $100,000 in right now.
Canadians are so obsessed with yield in the post-income trust world. I guess this is understandable, but it’s time for you to man up.
@Freedom First: good for you for sticking with it! Lots of people claim that’s the plan, then get married 5 years later.
#222 Gut Check
WOMEN: The rent vs buy debate
hosted by Crusty Clark
Actually I’d lease….short term, several models at the same time (aka Plate spinning). If any one model starts making unreasonable demands or costing me lots of money, the lease is terminated. As for marriage, forget it. Pretty much an all risks proposition for men nowadays, especially once kids enter the picture.
Guys….stay single, keep fit, lift heavy shi*t, dress well, don’t get married, listen to Uncle Garth r.e finance and you will have a good life.
And if I get called misogynistic, so be it. I wonder how many single guys would go out and buy a million $ crack shack in YVR or Toronto of their own accord?
Hello everyone, you are definitely going to get pissed off at me for the things I’m about to say here.
– First off: I’m both an Anti-Vaccine guy and I’m pro-vaccine at the same time. So what I’m going to say will get BOTH sides angry at me.
I know a ton of people who feel really awful for months after they get the flu shot and they have vowed to never get the flu shot again. I get the flu shot and I feel a bit yucky for a few days but it goes away, so the flu shot doesn’t seem to affect me, but I don’t like it, I would rather get Seriously sick from the flu then get the shot. Lucky I’m self employed so I can stay at home sick, not infect someone else when I’m with the flu.
Now until ANYONE finds the real reason for why we have such a massive epidemic of AUTISM, we basically have to go the ‘witch-hunt’ route and blame everything and everything that has been done to our bodies since rates of AUTISM began to skyrocket in North America.
Look at this chart and you cannot help but see that something seriously wrong is going on with the public at large:
http://blog.autismspeaks.org/2010/10/22/got-questions-answers-to-your-questions-from-the-autism-speaks%E2%80%99-science-staff-2/
At the current rate of growth, we will be having at least one AUTISTIC kid in every classroom of 30 children. Back in my youth, in 1978, there was not one child with autism in the whole school of 3,000 students, not one.
So whatever’s happened since 1980, we have to stop this insane increase in Autism or else we are doomed as a society. Do you think today’s society can exist if every other child has Autism? No, it won’t function, it will collapse. And at the current growth rate that will happen in 50 years from now.
Either it’s something put into the food, or something put into the water, or something injected into our bodies; something artificial is doing this to us.
So here is my suggestions:
-1 = Avoid eating processed foods that have artificial ingredients, as much as possible. So try to eat natural fish and natural potatoes, but not chicken or beef or pork or anything else that people along the way inject or add into the product.
-2 = Avoid drinking any liquids that have non-natural ingredients in them. Well, that pretty much rules out everything other than non-fluoridated water these days. So just drink non-fluoridated water, and if you like fruit juice, squeeze your own. Heck, even milk has massive amounts of antibiotics that farmers give to their cows, so its best to avoid that type of milk where ever possible.
-3 = Avoid any and all forms of medications, including vaccinations, where ever possible. Now here comes the tricky part: While I believe that the Mumps, Measles, Rubella, and Tetanus shots are a form of poison, the fact is that the poison is less dangerous than what will happen to us if we don’t take that poison. So get the shot and the 2 follow up booster shots for those 4 or 5 most serious illnesses, but after that amount of poison just say “enough is enough, that’s it, no more.” Don’t get any more vaccinations for anything else no matter what.
Doing this might see extremely serve, and one has to almost live the MENNONITE way of life just to live that way, but if we don’t then in 50 years we are sure to have half of our children coming down with AUTISM, and society won’t be able to exist with a population like that.
Ok, I’ll take the bait, so where to begin…so many places… ah forget it.. I thought it was decided this is not a health nor a sex blog…..
Oh I can’t resist.. just a suggestion but you might want to get those polio and small pox ones.. yikes, those are not on your list of poisons!
more on this E. 2nd house.
not long ago i commented on how assessments in this area took a big jump. (20-25%)
of course i was met with a chorus of voices saying that the actual market prices were less than the new assessed ones.
the example below has the sold price ONE HALF MILLION (or 40.6%) dollars above assessment.
whoever that was (mark? and others) you may admit your horrible errors now.
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B.C. Assessment, 2015: $1,233,000
Sold for: $1,718,000
– See more at: http://www.househunting.ca/vancouversun/buying-homes/Modern+touches+boost+heritage+home+appeal/10812278/story.html#sthash.Is4B9Sya.dpuf
If you are a single guy thinking about getting married, take a look at the benefits you will get out of marrying a woman, now take a look at the risks and potential loss you will get out of marrying a woman and then getting divorced by that same woman.
Weigh the risks vs the rewards, and you will quickly realize that MGTOW is the way to go for guys these days.
Men Going Their Own Way.
#238
Marry a man then.
#238 MGTOW on 02.17.15 at 10:45 pm
If you want to see what a mgtow society would look like check out Jamaica sometime. Feral men mating with random women and battling each other, not unlike alley cats. While women huddle in female collectives in poverty barely enough money to survive, paid for out of the goodwill of the government.
Sounds like a society that could be conquered by a small force or worse, ripe for fascist extremist takeover.
I’ll pass. Your ideal of society is one that we grew out of as a species twenty thousand years ago.