Choke it or Chuck it

VAN modified

Perhaps, like me, you were sitting around wondering about the macroeconomic impact of a Greek default or maybe what a war with Putin over the Ukraine would do to oil prices and poor Europe. What a drag. So here, just in the nick of time, is David Syatt. He wants to take all the realtors who secretly read this pathetic blog to a better place.

“Hi Garth,” he says, “we’re looking for new real estate agents and interior designers to be the hosts of an upcoming, yet-to-be-titled reality TV series. The following press release has additional information, along with how people can apply. Thank you for your consideration. Please feel free to share this release with your readers!”

David is a California dude who does PR for a Toronto-based outfit called Big Coat Productions. Their claim to fame is “Love It or List It,” which comes in two flavours – GTA and YVR – currently airing on that all-babes, all-the-time network called W, plus the hormonal HGTV.

Now, this is big business in our house-horny society where people know all about fake TV realtors and yet can’t name the finance minister. In fact, HGTV has clocked in as the #1 cable channel for US women aged 25 to 54 in the US, with an average of 14 million house-lusty females devouring such gems as ‘Flip or Flop’, ‘Fixer Upper’, ‘Property Brothers’ and, of course, ‘Love it or List It.’

LOVE IT

There is no power on earth stronger than this bond, apparently. NBC Nightly News has only nine million eyeballs. And, of course, that’s full of dead people and stuff blowing up. Life is just so much more fun when you’re deciding whether to borrow big piles of money to renovate your house, or even bigger piles to buy a better one.

The plot is deadening. Couples living in beater houses argue about renovating them to perfection, or moving to new digs. A realtor and a designer show up and try to make the conflict worse. In the end the house is rejuvenated and the horny ones must decide whether to love the reno or list it in favour of a sexier place. Along the way viewers are told that a $70,000 project will end up adding a hundred “grand to the value.

It’s house porn at its best. Houses always go up. Massive renovations are completed in about half an hour. Homeowners make gobs of equity every time a paint can’s cracked open. There’s always a house-to-die-for for sale around the corner. And you deserve it, no matter how much money you make or have saved. You’re special.

However, this is not without controversy. The Internet is seething with bitchy comments like this:

I live in the area and know a couple who were on the show. What we don’t see is that some of the houses the couple are looking at are not actually for sale. As well, the “after” shots of the rooms are not actually finished sometimes. My friend’s room was only half finished as they ran into more problems during the renos, so they took the shot to look as though the rooms are complete. Actually, they even did not finish sewing some of the cushions for the couches and just wrapped the fabric and placed it just so to look as though it was.

And couples who live in dumpsters are not just ‘discovered’ but selected to be on the shows after they apply, often in the hope of getting a bargain reno. Here’s a tutorial on how to apply, and here is a link to the actual application form.

Now, why am I writing about such drivel?

Word is the Bank of Canada will be dropping its key interest rate once again – in March. It will decline a further one-quarter point, to 0.5%. That will likely mean a small reduction in bank prime and VRM costs, just in time for the Spring real estate market. The probable outcome? No impact in panic-stricken Alberta, but a big buzz among the W-watching moist Millennial virgins in 416 and 604, where two separate versions of ‘Love It or List It’ are shot. It’s pretty certain that consumer and mortgage debt will continue to increase, even in the teeth of evidence this is financial suicide.

US rates will start to normalize in June (that is not in doubt). While the Bank of Canada may be able to hold the line until the end of 2015, it will not be able to ultimately resist upward pressure. What this means is a major head-fake for all those who think higher house highs and lower rate lows are the new normal.

They’re not. Only gullibility is eternal.

jilianandTodd

By the way, if your real estate career’s sagging, and yet you have star power, a 50-shades face, or an inviting bosom, this is for you:

For Immediate Release: TORONTO – Producers of the much-celebrated reality hit TV series Love It Or List It are at it again.  Canadian-based Big Coat Productions has teamed with noted casting agency Milo Casting Inc. to search for an interior designer and real estate agent to co-host Big Coat’s newest reality series project with W Network. Applicants are invited to submit a video of themselves, a brief written introduction and headshot.  Big Coat and Milo Casting will arrange interviews with selected candidates. Videos and all submission material should be emailed by March 18 to: [email protected]

According to Big Coat Productions, applicants can be individuals or already be a ‘pair’ such as business partners, siblings, parent-son or daughter – the important elements for consideration are the candidates’ charisma, energy, star quality, experience in their respective fields and ability to carry a television show.  While no formal acting experience is necessary, candidates should be well spoken, charismatic, and comfortable on camera.

209 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 02.10.15 at 8:44 pm

Pathetic the way we like it!

#2 Babblemaster on 02.10.15 at 8:44 pm

I hate to say it, but in the long run, houses do always go up. I was previously in the “logical” camp that says there are no fundamentals to support these insane GTA prices. However, I know an investor who has made out like a bandit because he wasn’t smart enough to understand about fundamentals.

#3 Jimmy on 02.10.15 at 8:46 pm

Bout time today.
Waiting and waiting. Dinner gettin cold.

#4 Fleabitten Monkey on 02.10.15 at 8:49 pm

I recall a BC Globe and Mail Saturday edition maybe 6 weeks ago which featured an article about flipping in Vancouver. The opinions were that it is VERY hard to do on SFHs and still make money. Buyers don’t value reno’s when they are essentially buying the land only, i.e. the house will end up being dozed anyway. It went on to say that those making money generally are doing so by keeping quality of the build very low. Condo reno’s however, were concluded to be the best bet, but not a slam dunk either.

#5 Jfish on 02.10.15 at 8:50 pm

Numero uno

#6 West Coast on 02.10.15 at 8:51 pm

Who needs Disneyland?

#7 Nemesis on 02.10.15 at 8:52 pm

#LoveItOrFistListIt… #TheOpenCastingCall… #Or,HowNaughtyIsThat!?!…

http://youtu.be/D2vuwvVhX20

#WannaBesAreAdvised… #ToAlwaysAlways… #CheckIMDBFirst

#8 Arfmooocat on 02.10.15 at 8:52 pm

604-210-3033 is a B.C. number

These posters are everywhere in Van these days. Realtor ploy. — Garth

#9 bdy sktrn on 02.10.15 at 8:53 pm

It will decline a further one-quarter point, to 0.5%.
————————-
?????

#10 Babblemaster on 02.10.15 at 8:53 pm

Lower rates are the new normal. The last few years have proven it. If rates were to go up “substantially”, there would be mass defaults and resultant lower house prices. No party in power would allow that if they could at all help it. I do agree that rates would have to go up if inflation were to skyrocket, but that is NOT about to happen.

#11 Washed Up Lawyer on 02.10.15 at 8:53 pm

Takes me back to all the hours I spent watching This Old House and New Yankee Workshop on PBS on Sunday afternoons. Now I have a garage full of tools I do not know how to use. I probably bought 4 routers.

TV is great.

#12 Randy on 02.10.15 at 8:53 pm

I hate to admit it but I do find Hilary’s bitchy attitude and design sense very sexy.

#13 bdy sktrn on 02.10.15 at 8:54 pm

sorry 0.5 is correct, of course.

No need to apologize. I just ignored you. — Garth

#14 Mark on 02.10.15 at 8:59 pm

“Most of the land in Richmond that you talk about is Part of The Agricultural Land Reserve. Not a chance of rezoning that.”

I disagree. All it takes is the stroke of a pen by some suitably motivated people to abolish any zoning impediments. Politicians will always elect to rezone as opposed to watching people go homeless, if that’s what it comes to. The money involved, the tax base, is simply too lucrative to perpetually keep suitable land out of production.

And when the CMHC comes under pressure financially, perhaps in the not-so-distant future, they’ll cave as well.

As it stands, there is no shortage of land nor housing in the Vancouver area. Low value uses and low-value owners are not being forced out. The only thing keeping Vancouver housing prices elevated is speculation and an excess of subprime credit. And as we all know, credit and speculation is cyclical over the long term.

#15 bdy sktrn on 02.10.15 at 9:00 pm

No need to apologize. I just ignored you. — Garth
————————
like normal, as is prudent. :)

#16 NoOneOfConsequence on 02.10.15 at 9:01 pm

When does the forex market respond to such prognostications?
If we all know another quarter point is coming off interest rates, and we know this immediately devalues our currency…why shouldn’t we all borrow 20,000, dump it into a forex account, leverage up and sell some pips?

#17 4 AM Sunrise on 02.10.15 at 9:01 pm

I’m confused. They’re casting for a new Love It or List It? Which city are they going to reno? Calgary?

#18 Van Isle Renter on 02.10.15 at 9:02 pm

#11 Washed Up Lawyer on 02.10.15 at 8:53 pm

Takes me back to all the hours I spent watching This Old House and New Yankee Workshop on PBS on Sunday afternoons. Now I have a garage full of tools I do not know how to use. I probably bought 4 routers.

TV is great.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

LOL!!!!

I too, have a biscuit joiner…..

#19 Chaddywack on 02.10.15 at 9:03 pm

I really don’t get it….why would they drop rates again knowing that the US is eventually going to raise rates…….

I wonder if the fall election has anything to do with this.

#20 Mark on 02.10.15 at 9:04 pm

“US rates will start to normalize in June (that is not in doubt). While the Bank of Canada may be able to hold the line until the end of 2015, it will not be able to ultimately resist upward pressure. “

What ‘upward pressure’? There is a huge amount of deflation and consumer austerity in the pipeline for Canadian homeowners/consumers, as housing prices continue to fall. It will be a good 5-10 years before anything resembling ‘upwards pressure’ materializes requiring a BoC rate increase. Long-term bonds are pricing in a very lengthy period of very low policy rates. Yes, Canada will eventually follow the US higher, but with a lag of probably 5-10 years, as the US is that much further ahead of Canada in terms of liquidating housing excess. And with the recent high USD$, and weakening US economy, it is not a certainty, by any stretch, that they will be in any sort of tightening mode in the near future either.

#21 M on 02.10.15 at 9:04 pm

“US rates will start to normalize in June (that is not in doubt).”

..Gartho.. repeat after me baby: ” There will be no rate hike states’ side. ONLY QE4 or something like to that effect”

:)

Sorry :( :)

#22 CPG on 02.10.15 at 9:07 pm

“Automakers have made big investments in Mexico, where wages are in the $8 an hour range, compared with close to $40 in Canada.

Global automakers poured $7 billion of new investment into Mexico last year, according to the Center for Automotive Research, compared to just $750 million for Canada.”

Canada falls to Mexico in share of North American auto output

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-falls-to-mexico-in-share-of-north-american-auto-output-1.2951795

#23 Smoking Man on 02.10.15 at 9:13 pm

candidates should be well spoken, charismatic, and comfortable on camera.
……
Well that rules me out… I’m no one’s monkey…

Well it took about a week to recover my kids bad trades.. Back up to 100k. 39k this week, which included a bone head move on Job numbers, I should no better.

Proof on the shit blog..

Oh, and lucky for me. My wife watched the walking dead marathon all werkend, no love it or list it here…

#24 Fuzzy on 02.10.15 at 9:13 pm

I seriously doubt the US Fed will raise rates in any significant way, if any. Maybe a ‘symbolic’ raise to 0.5%, but it’s not going much higher than that.

#25 Mr Stats on 02.10.15 at 9:15 pm

These rate decreases to 0.25% will cause YVR and YYZ prices to rise by about 15%.

So then a “Correction” after that means prices will revert back to early 2014 levels.

This doesn’t look good for those trying to get in.

Idiot comment. — Garth

#26 takla on 02.10.15 at 9:15 pm

look out bellow….NIRP on its way to Canada!

#27 Ronaldo on 02.10.15 at 9:19 pm

#3 Jimmy on 02.10.15 at 8:46 pm

”Bout time today.
Waiting and waiting. Dinner gettin cold.”
——————————————-
You got it bad dude.

#28 Mr Stats on 02.10.15 at 9:19 pm

@Mark

Serious question. Do you even realize how delusional your posts are?

Especially yesterdays comment where you have no idea what the ALR in Vancouver is.

#29 TS on 02.10.15 at 9:19 pm

I think it’s time for GFTV. Greater Fool Television….

GFTV could possibly get more than the 5,000 viewers who watch Ezra on SUNTV.

#30 Ret on 02.10.15 at 9:20 pm

Take the BoC key interest rate to .25 or even 0%. You know you want to Stevie, so just do it.

Tell Mr. President that you are not trying to devalue the currency as he takes you and Canadian exporters to the tariff woodshed for a whippin.

#31 Edward on 02.10.15 at 9:20 pm

Garth, last night you quoted The Conference board (to make your point about Alberta) by stating this: “The Conference Board says $40 billion in planned spending won’t happen now in the energy sector. Net migration into the province – which has been huge – could go to zero. “The consequences,” says the Board, “will be swift and severe”
——–
But you left out the positive parts. They are also predicting good growth and benefits from falling oil and a Loonie for BC & Ontario.

#32 Marco on 02.10.15 at 9:22 pm

“Well, real estate
is always good, as far as I’m concerned.”
~ Donald Trump.

#33 enthalpy on 02.10.15 at 9:27 pm

Surprisingly love it or list it originated here. Not rhe usa or Britain. Typically we get our show ideas from the brits.

#34 qceconomist on 02.10.15 at 9:27 pm

June normalization is not happening. Unless inflation starts an upward trend, and the dollar stops strengthening against every other important currency, the fed is scared to undo much of the improvement of the past year, especially with the current desinflation.

if it happens in 2015, look at September IF the world doesn’t go down the dumpster (trade balance is already turning into a drag, europe, ukraine) and inflation edges up.

#35 housingbear on 02.10.15 at 9:28 pm

I generally agree real estate in Canada is screwed but the US rate hike may not be until later than you expect. Warren Buffett said he thinks the Fed would have a hard time raising rates this year. Could be another orgy of spring buying in the GTA and Vancouver.

#36 Freedom First on 02.10.15 at 9:29 pm

The boy in the photo must be one of the younger Blog dawgs. Obviously, he gets it.

Love it. Those RE shows are pumping the hormones of the already RE worshiping house horny to a nymphomaniac level.

I know, living in Alberta the last several years, I was witness to the most indebted people in Canada, the borrowing frenzy Albertans were in as they loaded up on debt for RE, Renos, and Trucks with big nutz. Materialism and consumerism accumulation at any cost is like a contagious disease, and one which is often fatal.

This March BOC rate cut is nice to see, for me, and I will be taking my tax free profit after it before our rates begin to rise, which they have to as our rates have to follow the U.S. rates. Fact.

#37 The World According to MARK on 02.10.15 at 9:31 pm

YESTERDAY MARK SAID THIS:

#220 Mark

“Simply build on the abundance of farmland or light industrial in the GVR area. Build east of No. 6 road in Richmond north of the Westminster highway. Or in South Richmond. Build on the CMHC lands east of North Vancouver. Build in Link it all together with a reasonable mass transit system. Problem solved.”
—————-
Most of the land in Richmond that you talk about is part of The Agricultural Land Reserve. Not a chance of rezoning that.

There is a huge movement in Vancouver to protect what ever commercial and agricultural real estate they have left, and not rezone it for more residential.

The CMHC lands east of Mt Seymour have effectively been down zoned by the District of North Vancouver to prevent any development. Anyway, most of the 640 acres are not developable because of terrain issues.

Developing a mass transit system is long term and very costly endeavor that is always many steps behind the need. There is also huge resistance by the Nimby’s to have a line running through their back yard. Much of the funding for the lines recently built or currently being built were funded by the federal and provincial Gov’t. Something tells me future funding won’t be easy to get. And, as soon as mass transit is announced, the values of nearby land skyrocket. Check out what happened in Burnaby and the Cambie Street corridor.
———-
“Of course, there’s no demand since rents are reasonably affordable in the GVR”

Another piece of crap by Mark.

#38 juno on 02.10.15 at 9:32 pm

Glenworth drops 44%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-10/genworth-s-mcinerney-pressured-by-44-share-drop-in-three-months

Lol, freakin stupid company for loaning to hi risk people for such low interest rates. Now they are done and the beauty is its only just begun.

#39 Marco on 02.10.15 at 9:33 pm

New listings in Vancouver: Quite a lot at just over 400.
What’s going on? Is Spring in the air?
Haven’t seen the sun for days.

#40 Smoking Man on 02.10.15 at 9:33 pm

Perhaps, like me, you were sitting around wondering about the macroeconomic impact of a Greek default or maybe what a war with Putin over the Ukraine would do to oil prices and poor Europe.
……..
Fellow foilers..
No worries about war with Russia, Putin’s getting pissed at all the bullshit tossed his way. My sources on the dark side are saying he’s going to give up the goods, satellite, AND the whole shebang on who did what the day building number 7 fell all by itself.

Watch in amazement how McCain and Graham and MSM back off..

The world isent that complicated when you know how it realy works…

Happy Trading.

#41 Get back Loretta on 02.10.15 at 9:38 pm

My wife got so hooked on the real estate show ‘Property Brothers’ that she (and I) put in an application to be on the show. We never realized how set up these shows were until we went into the process. Turns out they wanted you to have already purchased your house BEFORE they do the show. We were then to pretend to choose our house and then start the reno’s.

Ok, it’s all smoke and mirrors in the end – but it sure left a bad taste in our mouth. We haven’t watched the show since.

#42 Zen on 02.10.15 at 9:42 pm

Seriously, Garth – you say, “US rates will start to normalize in June (that is not in doubt)”.

The biggest “head fake” of all is the US economic recovery meme. We have no recovery in the US. “IF” the Fed raises rates in the next few months it will *only* be done to give themselves a little wiggle room to bring them back down to zero again by the end of the year, followed by another round of QE to juice the faltering economy. This is far from normalization!

This US recovery is a mirage. There is nothing self-sustaining about our economic recovery. It remains on life support, held together by a toxic brew of $18 trillion in reckless government debt, ZIRP, Bank bailouts, QE1 2 and 3, Operation Twist, periodic massive liquidity injections, ultra low interest rates, and a massive propaganda campaign designed to seduce the sheeple off the sidelines and into the retail stores and equity markets.

Paradoxically, if government programs and central bank shock treatments were all canceled, the economy would collapse into severe recession, or more likely a 1932 style depression.

The Fed has superimposed itself into the market by replacing capitalism and interrupting the most elegant instrument in the free market: The pricing mechanism.

Prices today are not determined by the free market, they are determined by the Fed. If you think the Fed has determined the correct prices for equities and real-estate then go ahead and lever up, however if you are suspect of our central planning fools replacing capitalism in the marketplace and goosing prices artificially high, then perhaps you are better off in cash waiting patently for Mr. Market to reemerge and determine what prices aught to be.

The central banks and states are masking this rising instability with politically expedient measures that all carry the risk of triggering unpredictable unintended consequences.

Surface stability is masking rising instability. The collective actions of the worlds central banks have careened out of control, grotesquely distorting the markets, and bringing to bear cataclysmic consequences.

That is not in doubt!

#43 Jeff on 02.10.15 at 9:43 pm

“Despite lower gas prices, consumer spending has plunged.”

Just admit it there never has been a usa economic renaissance, just a stock market inflation and soon to be stock market deflation.

The 2015 usa economic forecasts were as reliable as the Canuck job growth in 2014 and realtor honesty, QE did nothing because you can’t loan yourself out of debt.

#44 james on 02.10.15 at 10:02 pm

#10 Babblemaster

You remind me of those dolts who were around during the dot com boom, saying that “the new normal” was market share and not revenue. They mostly ended up looking like ignorant idiots.

Housing an asset class may go up over time, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t bad times to buy (e.g., just before the crash in 81 in Vancouver).

#45 barnz0rz on 02.10.15 at 10:02 pm

#19 Chaddywack

Pretty obvious that the Cons are going to drop rates as low as the possibly can before the election. If they lose and the Liberals have to raise them, they can campaign next time on how “the Liberals killed the ecomomy”. If they win they can just keep the bleeding going.

#46 SWL1976 on 02.10.15 at 10:09 pm

More porn to keep the masses distracted. No biggie that we are not getting a Federal budget.

I share an office with a young guy who lives in Edmonton. Anyways he says today WTF… his wife sent him a virtual tour of a 700k house apparently she’s looking at. He has zero interest in moving, but this proves house lust is house lust that young women drool over

#226 Zen

The biggest problem we have today is peoples lifetime experience is no longer a reliable guide to the future. This is a moment in history when the things that have been true for our entire lifetimes may have ceased to be true.

——————————–

Excellent point

#47 Andrew Woburn on 02.10.15 at 10:09 pm

#99 SWL1976 on 02.09.15 at 10:30 pm

The collapse of the US dollar is going to be the single biggest event of our life times and is going to effect every man, woman, and child on this planet.

========================

I’m not sure what such a collapse looks like in this context. Does it mean that:

– the USD exchange rate falls so much that Americans have to drastically cut imports
– foreigners will no longer accept USD in payment so American exporters must get paid in foreign money and convert it back
– Americans refuse to be paid in greenbacks and turn to bartering for cartons of cigarettes or worse, trade in loonies?

Except for option three, its hard to see how these events would turn the US into a Mad Max zone overnight. The US economy is not heavily dependent on foreign trade. Are you actually thinking of a debt triggered collapse in the US economy rather than in the dollar per se? I could see another Lehman Bros event like a derivatives collapse but this would not be directly currency related and likely only result in another credit freeze-up, unpleasant and costly but resolvable.

The use of US dollars in international trade will and should decline over time as other countries increase their trade share. I believe about half of all US currency is held offshore and, as you say, will be making its way home as trade usage declines. This re-domestication of exodollars should increase domestic inflation but it is hard to imagine the process unwinding over less than a couple of decades or that the Fed will not find ways to neutralize the inflows as they show up.

One thing central banks do in the normal course of business is to “sterilize” inflationary inflows. For example, China keeps the yuan from floating up against the dollar by stopping its exporters from swapping their USD receipts for yuan in international markets. More dollars and less yuan in the market boosts the relative price of yuan. The exporters get below market rates to sell their dollars to Chinese commercial banks. The People’s Bank of China prints yuan to buy them from the commercials and parks the new dollars in US treasuries. The PBC doesn’t want the newly printed yuan to create domestic inflation so it makes the commercials increase their reserves (deposits) at the PBC thus “sterilizing” the yuan by taking them out of circulation. This is how China wound up with trillions of USD. It’s not for investment.

I don’t worry much about dollars coming home because the pointy heads at the Fed can do this sterilization stuff in their sleep. A lot of the “money” printed for QE is effectively sterilized as reserves at the Fed. That is one reason why QE did not create massive inflation.

#48 Brian on 02.10.15 at 10:11 pm

In 2007 my wife and I bought a townhouse in port moody BC. In that time the townhouse has barely appreciated and SFH have increased 2-300k. So basically we’ve spent the last 8 years paying down the mortgage and gotten nowhere. Feel gutted. Where will it end? Will I Look at SFH prices today and think ‘what a bargain’ in 5 years? Based on current trend yes. Rates stay low, house horniness rampant. Might be a time to buy. I will regret this.

#49 Terrier on 02.10.15 at 10:12 pm

Today on BNN … U.S. investors bet against Canadian bank stocks

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/2/10/US-investors-bet-against-Canadian-bank-stocks.aspx

#50 Cow Man on 02.10.15 at 10:12 pm

Sir Garth:

Did you send this to Eve Adams? Maybe she would fit the bill considering neither the Liberals or the Conservatives seem to want her representing them. She has the assets to fit the bill for “Love it or Leave It”.

#51 Victor V on 02.10.15 at 10:13 pm

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/2015/02/10/fed-rate-hike-looms-closer-and-closer-as-one-top-official-targets-june&pubdate=2015-02-10

RALEIGH, N.C. — The Federal Reserve should raise interest rates in June, a top Fed official said on Tuesday, saying the U.S. economy is strengthening and that inflation will move back to the central bank’s target.

“At this point, I think June looks like the attractive option” to raise interest rates, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker told reporters here. “The data could change that, but it would have to be surprising data for me.”

#52 Nemesis on 02.10.15 at 10:14 pm

#ProductionNotes,Or… #Reality’TV’,You’reKidding… #Right?…

“Big Coat Productions specializes in unscripted entertainment-based programming…”…

http://www.wga.org/organizesub.aspx?id=1088

http://www.wga.org/organizesub.aspx?id=1096

#53 Rexx Rock on 02.10.15 at 10:14 pm

I guess alot of Canadians are converting cad to usd to ease the burden of losing wealth because of BOC decision to devalue our currency. I know its going to cause a world of pain for Canadians to have a 64 cent dollar but they know best.Debt enslavement for all Canadians,higher taxes to come and more despair for working familes.Affordable housing will be buying a rv and parking at walmart.

#54 not 1st on 02.10.15 at 10:15 pm

Garth, you missed the biggest story of the day;

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/robots-expected-to-slash-manufacturing-labour-costs-in-next-decade-1.2951431

#55 HHS on 02.10.15 at 10:19 pm

BoC and other central banks lower rates in anticipation of rate delay in US.

#56 Fred on 02.10.15 at 10:27 pm

I am in the K&B industry (that’s kitchen and bath) and everyone, including interior designers hate, hate hate those shows. I saw one show where the wife demanded Fisher +Paykel appliances (expensive) but then cheaped out on the cabinetry with Chinese made hardware that will fail in 2 years with doors falling off and the drawers toppling down, resulting in a redo needed $$$$$. Vanity is so sad to the materialistic fools out there.
Stick to European hardware, good cabinetry and mid range appliances and you’ll be OK.

#57 For those about to flop... on 02.10.15 at 10:28 pm

Years working in construction…..25

Houses worked on ,I guess…….500

Jobs completed under budget …..0

#58 Fred on 02.10.15 at 10:30 pm

PS: Keep watching the HGTV shows and rack up that debt chasing the Jones’ because your egos and pride makes me money!

#59 Sylar on 02.10.15 at 10:33 pm

Hey I saw the same advert walking out of a Canucks game the other night, was thinking about this blog then! Definitely real picture today. :)

#60 Saskatoon-living on 02.10.15 at 10:35 pm

Ouch!!

http://www.thestarphoenix.com/business/Saskatoon+housing+starts+down/10801236/story.html

#61 Lillooet, BC on 02.10.15 at 10:35 pm

Guys like real porn. Women like house porn. Hah!

#62 Love It But Missed It on 02.10.15 at 10:38 pm

Not to be overly nitpicky (and only because I work in media), but both Love It or List It and Property Brothers are Canadian-first shows on W Network. HGTV broadcasts them in the US, but the formats and franchises are Canuck through and through.

Not that we North of 49ers care anything about real estate though, right?

#63 joblo on 02.10.15 at 10:38 pm

#41 Get back Loretta on 02.10.15 at 9:38 pm

“Turns out they wanted you to have already purchased your house BEFORE they do the show.”

Heard it the same BS on House Hunters series.
Couples actually own the house they pick at the end of the show and the others are set ups by the agents to show the listings.

Dice are loaded!

#64 Victor V on 02.10.15 at 10:39 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/canada/ottawa/topstories/plasco-obtains-creditor-protection-80-jobs-terminated-1.2951751

About 80 jobs at Plasco have been terminated after the company obtained a court order to protect itself from creditors following several missed deadlines to secure financing for a waste-to-energy plant.

The employees will receive one month of severance pay, a spokesperson for the company said.

#65 fancy_pants on 02.10.15 at 10:39 pm

#19 Chaddywack on 02.10.15 at 9:03 pm
I really don’t get it….why would they drop rates again knowing that the US is eventually going to raise rates…….

no brains in the head they are thinking with…. kinda like a guy dropping his drawers knowing the girl is going to raise her dress.

#66 tundra pete on 02.10.15 at 10:40 pm

#25 who is going to get in? Isnt that the $ 64 000 question. First time buyers make up a bulk of purchases. Im thinking the nice lady who works at walmart, maybe the nice man that works at Tim Hortons, a $750 000 100% financing mtg on a strata box with unpredictable homeowner association fees should be the norm. Makes perfect sense to me.

Dont know who remembers the early 80’s but I do. Mtg rates were good. Somewhere around 5 to 8 %. (Normal). Then they quickly jumped up. Yes 18% would be considered reasonable at the time. Many families went thru this. Most hung on crimped the style somewhat but it was dealt with. Houses were reasonable prices then life went on.

Fast forward to now. Wow, wouldnt want to be in a lot of peoples shoes these days. Things can get real bad, real fast.

Gotta keep in mind that since 2008, todays interest rates are still emergency rates in place temporarily to stimulate the economy back to normalcy. If they do not increse at some point, well lets not even go there. Ever heard of a $28.00 loaf of bread or a & $36.00 jug of milk? Didnt think so. Hope we dont.

I admire Garth for his patience I would have just told these house horny no minds to go f%#k themselves.

Todays lesson; You cant fix stupid.

#67 The World According to MARK on 02.10.15 at 10:40 pm

More CRAP by Mark:

“And when the CMHC comes under pressure financially, perhaps in the not-so-distant future, they’ll cave as well.
—————
The North Van Lands were down zoned to prevent development by the District of North Vancouver. It was not a decision by CMHC, in fact they tried to fight it and lost.

“The money involved, the tax base, is simply too lucrative to perpetually keep suitable land out of production.
————
The ALR is controlled by the Province. Property taxes are collected by the municipality. The Province will adamantly protect the ALR.

“The only thing keeping Vancouver housing prices elevated is an excess of subprime credit.”
———–
Please Mark back up what you say with facts just once. Prove that there is an abundance of sub prime credit in Vancouver.

#68 MSM-free Zone on 02.10.15 at 10:41 pm

“…….In fact, HGTV has clocked in as the #1 cable channel for US women aged 25 to 54 in the US……”
_________________________________________

Cable TV is the last refuge for influencing those who are incapable of mastering a computer mouse and discovering the truth for themselves.

Speaks volumes of the intelligence of a nation about to pump a second Bush into power.

#69 MSM-free Zone on 02.10.15 at 10:46 pm

“….Word is the Bank of Canada will be dropping its key interest rate once again – in March. It will decline a further one-quarter point, to 0.5%…..”
_______________________________________

Kind of like handing out donuts and slurpees at a Weight-Watchers meeting.

At least we now know the truth about the so-called ‘arms length’ agreement between the current government and the Bank of Canada.

#70 tundra pete on 02.10.15 at 10:51 pm

To much patience Garth. I would have lost it long ago repeating the drivel incessantly. Would have told the house horny no minds to go f#%k themselves.

These are emergency interest rates enacted 2008 to stimulate the economy not the moist virgins.

Proven time and time again, you cant’t fix stupid.

#71 just say no on 02.10.15 at 10:56 pm

back in the day with only;This old house to watch now and then…I bought a home year 1987 and in 1999 still had not gone up an dime! But today people are cut throat for the same house at 4x’s the price. I will never forget those years when people with no money could only dream and envy. I do love the house porn though for it is entertainment and if people had to use their own hard earned and saved to pay cash this would not be happening at this pace. I believe sellers are holding off on listing for with a rate drop no doubt the asking price gets to rise. How I miss 1987…….

#72 Nosty, etc. on 02.10.15 at 11:00 pm

#40 Smoking Man on 02.10.15 at 9:33 pm — “Perhaps, like me, you were sitting around wondering about the macroeconomic impact of a Greek default or maybe what a war with Putin over the Ukraine would do to oil prices and poor Europe.”

Hey there SMan. Keeping well? I am!

Now, try this for something completely different. It’s a real screwed up world now!

#73 pwn3d on 02.10.15 at 11:03 pm

I heard a TREB commercial on the radio tonight, a first for me. Not sure what that means exactly but looks like they’re ramping up for the spring.

They were talking about how real estate in York Region has gone up 85% in the last 10 years. That’s conservative if you ask me. If you include leverage those who bought 10 years ago won the lottery. And it really is luck if you think about all of the world and local events that had to happen for this to work. Another big spring in the GTA.

#74 Andrew Woburn on 02.10.15 at 11:12 pm

MSM-free Zone on 02.10.15 at 10:41 pm

Speaks volumes of the intelligence of a nation about to pump a second Bush into power.
================

You mean a third Bush. You’re forgetting George Senior. And Bush 4.0 is already emerging from the 3-D printer.

#75 Wildnutter on 02.10.15 at 11:16 pm

Wouldn’t that be Bush 3.0?

#76 lala on 02.10.15 at 11:16 pm

Very smart… If you can find sheeps feed them grass, Canadians deserved it.

#77 Mark on 02.10.15 at 11:18 pm

“Especially yesterdays comment where you have no idea what the ALR in Vancouver is.”

The “ALR” is, at best, a short-term measure to keep land out of use for RE. The minute that any meaningful shortage of land develops in the Vancouver region, backed by actual scarcity and rapid rises in real rents, the political and financial pressure to release such land to production will be irresistible by politicians at all levels of government. Let’s not get too carried away with the delusion that government can permanently keep land from reverting to its highest value uses.

As it stands, rents in Vancouver are not very high on a major world city basis for all classes of RE. And elevated prices appear to only have support in excessively low cap rates and excess subprime credit.

#78 lala on 02.10.15 at 11:18 pm

Tried very hard, growing a successful bussines, double my tsfa, happy family, money it’s not an issue etc but the life sucks in here, I’m so happy i have a back up country.

#79 Mike on 02.10.15 at 11:20 pm

I said yesterday that my Edmonton manufacturing shop just laid off 25% of our workforce this week plus via attrition have not re-hired back a handful of managers… WELL, today we found out that our sister shop (Edmonton area) is completely shutting down in August. So 100 low-skilled laborers & 20+ office staff are out of a job or will be in 6 months. Things just got really scary for the rest of us.

#80 lala on 02.10.15 at 11:24 pm

This bubble is like filling the halon with farts , when it burst the smell will kill you. Tetrahydrocannabinol, long name I know…

#81 Vanecdotal on 02.10.15 at 11:25 pm

#48 Brian

“In 2007 my wife and I bought a townhouse in port moody BC. In that time the townhouse has barely appreciated and SFH have increased 2-300k. So basically we’ve spent the last 8 years paying down the mortgage and gotten nowhere.”

I feel for you man. Your story is typical of a large segment of my general peer group, (Gen-Xers trying to get into the market with a starter home), and this is is the “new normal” in many attached properties bought in the mid-late 2000’s and beyond, all across YVR, including parts of Van city, NOT just the suburbs.

Many (most, perhaps all?) who bought in the last 7-8 years are underwater technically speaking, or worse. Yet NOTHING is ever mentioned in the MSM, no reliable stats to reference, nada. It’s “RE only goes UP!” One actually has to spend the time to research assessed values yoy, and track the MLS listings in a specific area (yes I need a hobby) to notice the reality of this multi-year downward trend (and I have)… and this does not even begin to factor in the massive OVERSUPPLY of this type of housing that continues to be pumped out for the foreseeable future. I’m just tired of watching friends & colleagues jumping off a financial cliff to “get-in at all costs, because housing only goes up!” based on almost complete obfuscation of data and a complicit msm paid for with RE advertising $.

After hearing dozens, and dozens of similar anecdotes over the past 5+years, some from people close to me, I finally went from long-time lurker here, to poster in an effort to provide some honest perspective.

The RealTrolls™ who come here to shamelessly pump, to date, have not provided any links to reliable data to refute the observation that many Van suburbs have been sloooow melting for YEARS. having access to the data, they know this is the truth.

Garth, you really should take a closer look at YVR ‘burbs, especially the attached market in the last 5-7 years. SFH’s in many areas also flat or down in real terms, yoy, (at minimum, losing money against inflation) or worse, in defined downward trend. Rot starts at the edges, now White Rock & area SFH luxury market chilly too. Where’d all that HAM go? Van city and remaining Hot Pockets will not be immune. The “floor” may arguably end up being higher than other areas, but there will be a correction closer the the historical mean nonetheless.

#82 Mark on 02.10.15 at 11:25 pm

“Genworth drops 44%”

Careful there. Genworth (USA — ticker GNW) is a different legal entity from Genworth Canada (MIC.TO). The latters’ stock is only down from a peak of $42 to today’s $31, and believe it or not, actually declared a dividend today.

#83 Mincus Wincup Sr. on 02.10.15 at 11:26 pm

Garth says rates will start to normalize in June. (That is not in doubt). I’m sure Garth has some data to back this statement up.

The guy is the video below seems pretty smart. He says rates are not going to rise. He backs it up with statistical data. Disclaimer: This was posted on Zero Guy so it might not be credible according to some opinions that frequent this site.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-10/man-will-never-be-invited-back-cnbc

Someone is gonna be right and someone is gonna be wrong. Good luck gentlemen. I will enjoy watching and enjoying the show.

#84 Nemesis on 02.10.15 at 11:27 pm

#WhoGaveTheDruggedUpChimpAGun?…

http://youtu.be/ePlBPT1uWGs

#85 Wildnutter on 02.10.15 at 11:28 pm

And 3D printer one will be tad brighter…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEbZqvMu2cQ

#86 Andrew Woburn on 02.10.15 at 11:38 pm

If you can’t sell HAMburgers in Richmond, then where?

My friend who lives there says other local businesses are struggling as well.

“McDonald’s Steveston shuts up shop in Richmond”

http://www.richmond-news.com/news/mcdonald-s-steveston-shuts-up-shop-in-richmond-1.1340158

#87 Mark on 02.10.15 at 11:39 pm

“The RealTrolls™ who come here to shamelessly pump, to date, have not provided any links to reliable data to refute the observation that many Van suburbs have been sloooow melting for YEARS. having access to the data, they know this is the truth.”

Of course. For a few reasons. First of all, we know that the shift in the sales mix over the past couple years has been quite dramatic. Away from lower-end units, and more tilted towards the higher-end units. Hence, it becomes very erroneous to merely apply the “sales” stats (which clearly show an increase) over the entire universe of housing when the mix of that housing participating in transactions is quite a bit different today than it was two years ago.

Secondly, newer units are being delivered with amenities, finishes, and other features which are not all that common in older units. Just because brand new units are being built with granite, stainless, and other top-dollar features, doesn’t mean that existing units magically have those features. The effect of all this new, un-depreciated construction on the sales mix is significant, especially in Calgary and Vancouver where supply has been so vigorous over the past few years.

Last but not least, we have evidence, in certain markets, that vendors have been ‘juicing’ the prices by building in unusually significant incentives into the purchase price. A $1M house that includes a $50k BMW, is really a $950k house, but will be reported as a $1M transaction. On a wide enough scale basis, this has the effect of masking declines.

All of the available evidence seems to indicate that the Canadian housing market, including in the GTA, GVR, and Calgary, peaked in the 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2013, and we’ve been coasting on fumes and manipulations as described above. Inflation has been chronically running beneath target, even with abnormally low policy rates, because demand is disappearing and the “wealth effect” is going in reverse. The Realtors will “deny, deny, deny”, but they’re rapidly running out of excuses, and the sales mix changes have largely run their course. Which is why we’re seeing a lot of sell-siders freaking out these days, now that the jig is up.

#88 Mike on 02.10.15 at 11:40 pm

So let me get this straight. There is yet another home reno show coming online (with a focus on the markets that matter 416 & 604). Yet the ‘inevitable housing crash/correction is upon us’ predictions continue…

As if all the market and audience research already done by the people backing this show isn’t enough to suggest that at the very least:

– Demand for housing in the 416 & 604 will continue to increase
-The owners of 300 sq foot micro units will need to learn how to max out every square mm of space
-People will aspire to own for any number of reasons for a long time to come
-With interest rates heading towards negative territory, viewers will still be able to afford cable to watch the show AND pay the mortgage (imagine that)!

And yes, monopoly money is hell of a lot of fun to spend on acquiring real assets:)
I always say, assuming you have a fat down and decent job prospects.

5 – 10 years from now, I see a show about renters dealing with issues brought on by severe regrets about not buying in the GTA: “Wished it, but Missed It,”

#89 For those about to flop... on 02.10.15 at 11:42 pm

I don’t suppose anyone has ever seen Smoked Meat and lala in the same room?
Maybe they had the same school teacher?

#90 S. Bby on 02.10.15 at 11:46 pm

My wife has an acquaintance who is supposedly going on Love It or List It with their house. Will let you dogs know what happens.

#91 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.10.15 at 11:51 pm

@ #80 lala
“This bubble is like filling the halon with farts , when it burst the smell will kill you. Tetrahydrocannabinol, long name I know…”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

O…….M…….G……..

Smoking Man has spawned an educated successor.

I’m likin’ it

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.10.15 at 11:55 pm

@#61 Lillooet
“Guys like real porn. Women like house porn. Hah!”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Lazer-like observation.
The difference being;
Men think with “monkey brain”.
Women think with “lizard brain”.

Men lose.

#93 No Canada, No on 02.10.15 at 11:57 pm

Garth, tell us you’ve applied.
Please?
Pleeseees?

#94 Mark on 02.10.15 at 11:58 pm

“The collapse of the US dollar is going to be the single biggest event of our life times and is going to effect every man, woman, and child on this planet. “

True, and probably for the better in most cases. The USD is in a giant bubble, and investing in it has been a large source of malinvestment over the past few decades. Instead of using such investment to develop the world’s most state-of-the-art factories, R&D, and standard of living, the US has largely squandered its exorbitant privilege of seignorage on exorbitant domestic compensation for non-producers (public “servants”), endless military interventions in foreign lands, and domestic policy intended to destroy the efforts of its domestic producers.

I believe “hard” currencies, the currencies of chronic exporters such as Canada, will replace the USD$ in the reserve baskets of nations which are net importers. Along with domestic deflation in Canada, and the probability of strong investment inflows on account of such rebalancing, I believe the CAD$ eventually will be worth $1.5 USD$ or more. It will take decades for the US to fully clean up its act, liquidate all of the malinvestment in its economy (social, political, economical), rebuild its domestic economy, and regain credibility. The 2008/2009 collapse was a warning shot which unfortunately was not appropriately heeded.

#95 Lisat on 02.11.15 at 12:04 am

Pretty houses, pretty designers, pretty realtors and pretty interest rates=pretty horny

#96 Uh Oh Canada on 02.11.15 at 12:07 am

I’ve waited and I’ve watched for the last five years. Now the ‘rot at the edges’ are in my area. 400k houses are going for 300kish and so forth and so on. This is about a 100k savings for those who didn’t buy in 12/13. Vultching time will be either later this year or next year.

#97 SWL1976 on 02.11.15 at 12:09 am

#47 Andrew Woburn

Thanks for the insight. I know there are plenty of people who contribute to this blog who are considerably smarter than myself when it comes to international banking and finance. I’m the guy you want setting the clearance in your self aligning spherical roller bearings or designing one off custom tooling for your machine shop. That being said I am smart enough to know that something isn’t right in the world of finance.

Personally I think once the majority of the world decides to ditch the dollar things will happen fast, but I have no idea how it will play out.

Look at the recent wars with regards to countries trying to ditch the petro-dollar. Doesn’t go over well, sure we in the west have been told a certain story, but the bottom line is the US desperately clinging to Reserve currency status. I think the west is greatly underestimating the demographics of the rest of the world and how perceptions can change rather quickly. Remember the west is 5% of the global population and aging at that.

I do know one thing when a country with 18 trillion and counting in debt is writing laws that give complete control of private property to the state, complete control of the internet and communication to the state, complete control of all transportation to the state, has built internment camps for its citizens, and has approved prolonged detention, is arming and training its local police with military gear and personnel… One best take notice, all the above is happening and can be enacted in a state of emergency.

Truth is I don’t know how this house of cards will fall, but just take a look around warning signs are every where but sure enough even more distractions. Most people in North America have 3 days food in their home… False flag terrorist attack on the banks, or transportation network, no food moves, and there would be chaos pretty quick especially in urban areas. Once martial law is declared, complete state control… Just what they want.

Who was thinking on Sept 10 2001 that passenger planes would be flown into the WTC the next day?

Anyways I have had enough for the week, too many things to worry about that are beyond my control

Thanks Garth for this forum and thanks to all who contribute.

#98 Millmech on 02.11.15 at 12:23 am

#73
I love reading comments like yours,where the people have won the lottery in gains.Only problem is you have to cash that ticket in to get your winnings which no one seems to do as the “jackpot” only gets bigger.Then the day comes to cash in the winning ticket and they find out it’s expired

#99 NoName on 02.11.15 at 12:35 am

#54 not 1st

now days “robots” are everywhere, they trade , write news, assembles other machines, delivers mail…
but I will absolutely hate to see them in service industry.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzF5VawGgiA

#100 Jas on 02.11.15 at 12:38 am

Folks:
Is Russia and Japan a good place to invest now (’cause the market is so down…buy low sell high) and what do you think about investing in agriculture commodities and agribusiness?

#101 Chris on 02.11.15 at 12:38 am

BOC will cut rate again in March? “Hey, how about a 20% pay cut for everyone so may be we can have a better economy, uh, I mean higher housing prices.”

#102 Choke it or Chuck it | Realties.ca on 02.11.15 at 12:40 am

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/02/10/choke-it-or-chuck-it/ […]

#103 devore on 02.11.15 at 12:47 am

#37 The World According to MARK

“Of course, there’s no demand since rents are reasonably affordable in the GVR”

Another piece of crap by Mark.

Except he’s absolutely right. There is no shortage of housing in Vancouver, either to buy (months of inventory) or to rent (rents have gone nowhere in the last decade, flat in real terms). Lower mainland is very low density, comparing to even tier 2 or tier 3 world class cities, never mind the tier 1 metropolis Vancouver likes to aspire to.

Particularly telling is the rent figure; if there was actual supply/demand mismatch, rents would be skyrocketing along with prices. If properties to buy are in tight supply, then so are properties to rent, and both would rise in price (there are no rent controls for new tenants, before you bring up that nonsense). This is not happening, there is a complete disconnect between rents and prices, with CAP rates typically in 1-2% range. The only reason for the disparity is speculative demand driven by easy and cheap credit, and asset-based lending.

#104 kommykim on 02.11.15 at 12:53 am

RE: #68 MSM-free Zone on 02.10.15 at 10:41 pm
Speaks volumes of the intelligence of a nation about to pump a second Bush into power.

Not to mention the collective intelligence of a nation who put Harper into power. When he, or one of his minions, speaks on the world stage I feel embarrassed to be Canadian.

#105 Metro Van Observer on 02.11.15 at 12:57 am

Garth, years and years of you warning of higher rates have not materialized and will not anytime soon in Canada. Why oh why do you believe this will happen? 6 years of emergency interest rates already and we are well on the long-term deflationary pathway of Japan than to see higher rates. As others note, the long term bond rates are telling us that years of slow growth are ahead.

What do you see that us mere mortal blog dogs don’t? Even after all these years from you of higher rates just over the horizon.

#106 Iceberg Homes on 02.11.15 at 1:03 am

Human moles.. need more space…. dig dig dig..

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/london-s-record-high-population-creates-real-estate-challenges-1.2951275

#107 Cyclist on 02.11.15 at 1:08 am

“Now, why am I writing about such drivel?”

Right, and WWE is real and Lance armstrong never
took PEDs.

“Reality TV” is an oxymoron.

cleared up on south central VI today for a nice ride.

#108 bobdog on 02.11.15 at 1:14 am

As a 25 year vetran software engineer on his way to the USA due to the 3rd world standard of living here in YVR, I can’t abide inconstancies. Please Mr G, the code for toronto airport is YYZ. Rush wrote a song about it. Its a good song.

#109 Carney is happy... on 02.11.15 at 1:22 am

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2948079/Buy-home-say-experts-mortgage-rates-hit-record-low-ve-got-decent-deposit.html

#110 Ronaldo on 02.11.15 at 1:23 am

#18 Van Isle Renter

”LOL!!!!

I too, have a biscuit joiner…..”
————————————————

Bought one for my wife, thought she could use it in the kitchen. LOL

#111 Obvious Truth on 02.11.15 at 1:37 am

#11. Clamps and vices for me. Not sure what that says about me. Happy to say they’ve all been used at the cottage. Clamps are holding things together all over the place. Just need Gillian to help with some reno work. Move over Bob.

For all you oil junkies. Clean and green is the new marginal barrel. Critical mass will be achieved and there will be no disruptions in power. Yes subsidies were needed. Just like for oil infrastructure. Get over it. Don’t fear being empowered.

I had put together a few paragraphs to frame the scenario for you horse and buggy fossilized dinosaur hunters but I realized its a waste of time. You love oil. I’m competing with hgtv on this. Carry on.

#112 Frustrated Kiwi on 02.11.15 at 1:41 am

#2 Babblemaster

Actually no, in the very long term house prices are flat (relative to inflation):
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2006/03/shiller_longter.html
This is because if the average house price went up faster than the average wage both houses and rents would become uneconomic. Doesn’t mean you can’t have a generations worth of under or over priced houses of course.

#113 Keith in Calgary on 02.11.15 at 1:45 am

Speaking of BC real estate……..I personally know 4 people who have been trying to sell their SUNSHINE COAST properties (in Sechelt and Gibsons) for at least 3 years………with no takers.

#114 Bo Xilai on 02.11.15 at 2:02 am

I know it’s a little too popular to beat up on Fort McMurray these days, but I’d invite y’all to check out this Facebook page which offers vehicles for sale up in the Fort these days. Desperate days indeed…

https://www.facebook.com/groups/fortmcmurraybuyandsellvehicle/

Let’s just say there are lots of vehicles for sales to pay for frivolous things like mortgage payments. My nephew was going to buy a fancy sled which was purchased for 16K last year which he was going to vultch for 5K… Dude got laid off and needed money PRONTO – like last Friday. My nephew wasn’t able to get to Fort McMurray that quick and the fancy sled was sold to someone else.
My nephew is also in the Alberta oil patch and his dad said something wise… “You might be taking advantage of this guy in Fort McMurray today, but that might be you in 6 months.”

#115 Big English on 02.11.15 at 2:17 am

Was told told a great expression at work today.
“It’s unfortunate stupidity is painless”.

#116 rishitha on 02.11.15 at 2:26 am

DELETED

#117 Babblemaster on 02.11.15 at 2:43 am

#44 james

The Vancouver housing crash in ’81!!!!!! Wow.

That was a long time ago. Waayyyy before the HAM factor. Things are very different now.

#118 jrochest on 02.11.15 at 3:14 am

#60 Saskatoon-living

That’s not that surprising: there’s already 1500 plus units on the MLS, and much of that is stuff in the new subdivisions. And prices are dropping on ‘investment’ stuff, like condo conversions and small bungalows.

#119 Dan Buck on 02.11.15 at 3:41 am

Yeah…I don’t know about the next rate drop Garth. Poloz looked like he was holding his penis with both hands in Turkey when he had to deny deny deny not using his bully pulpit to drive the dollar down. Canadian and International reporters echoed Canadians very loud and public sentiment…from both Main Street and Bay that Poloz has been playing silly buggers without a clue as to what he was doing.

Personally I think he’s a uneducated buffoon, without the qualifications or experience for this job….that idea is well known and shared among Canada’s financial analysts…so nothing new there…

Harper must have known as well. But I think the product of Poloz’ buffoonery has unexpectedly driven the Canadian economy off the rails when he didn’t foresee the dual Balck Swans crashing through the roof of his 1940’s style economic model.

Harper will have to find a way to quietly ‘retire ‘ Poloz and get someone more credible…with embarrassing the senior bureaucratic ‘talent pool’ …and himself.

I think Poloz will be ‘reassigned ‘ before March.

#120 MSM-free Zone on 02.11.15 at 4:04 am

#74 Andrew Woburn on 02.10.15 at 11:12 pm
#75 Wildnutter on 02.10.15 at 11:16 pm
_________________________

Absolutely, thanks for the reminder and correction.

Love the 3D comment!…. who’s supplying the ink? Sarah Palin? …(though 1D would better describe both families, and their voter base.)

#121 Londoner on 02.11.15 at 5:30 am

“US rates will start to normalize in June (that is not in doubt).”

I never thought I’d hear it from a US chief economist but here is Mizuho’s Steve Ricchiuto saying exactly what I’ve been saying for the past year…

“…and we’re going to be pushing out just like the Bank of England. They’ve been preparing everyone for a rate increase for some time too.”

Steve Ricchiuto? Seriously? — Garth

#122 jim turner on 02.11.15 at 6:11 am

Today I felt a scare….a realization..I am becoming a citizen of a country whose leaders ape the USA. The US has become a bully boy. It has done a lot of bad things including killing little kids Mom’s and Dad’s. Those little kids grow up. I know if you killed my mom or dad I’d get even….eventually.
Interest rates may not be our biggest problem.
I am concerned

#123 Scalgary on 02.11.15 at 7:50 am

Calgary real estate board stopped posting daily changes in listings, median & average prices? Don’t see them this morning…

Selfish intent…as always?

#124 Brian Williams NBC News on 02.11.15 at 8:50 am

Say, Garth, I am taking a bit of a sabbatical from the network and might be interested in doing one of these jobs. They say my demo tests very high with women (it’s the hair of course – you know that yourself, bro!) so I’d be a great fit for W Network.

Tell them I’m interested. If they insist, I’m sure I can get a real estate license in a few weeks max, no biggie.

It’ll be great being up in Canada again, hanging out with you again Garth!

Just like old times. I remember it like it was yesterday, being in the cabinet room with you standing up to Harper and that bruise when he threw his lipstick case at your forehead. Or when I was the passenger on your Harley, hugging you with my thighs as you rode into the sunset off Parliament Hill in 2008. Or our days together at UTS hanging in the cafeteria, or when you got me to call Dorothy last year to reassure her that all the Amazons were fake (wink, wink) or when I supervised you at the Toronto Sun………….

#125 fancy_pants on 02.11.15 at 9:01 am

#118 Londoner on 02.11.15 at 5:30 am
“…and we’re going to be pushing out just like the Bank of England. They’ve been preparing everyone for a rate increase for some time too.”

Mark Carney is very good at crying wolf. He fine tuned his howl in the Great White North.

for sure, looks like you are on the cusp for an imminent rate increase (insert rolly eyes)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2948079/Buy-home-say-experts-mortgage-rates-hit-record-low-ve-got-decent-deposit.html

#126 lala on 02.11.15 at 9:42 am

@89 about to flop

Been 15 years in Canada but english is not my thing, who is smoking meat!?

#127 Sue on 02.11.15 at 9:59 am

#113 Big English

Stupidity isn’t painless for the observer. Just look at the Daily Mail link that was posted twice above.

(On second thoughts, don’t. It’s click bait and it’ll reduce your intelligence by a measurable amount. I know. I clicked so help me.)

#128 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 02.11.15 at 10:08 am

#72 Nosty, etc. on 02.10.15 at 11:00 pm

#40 Smoking Man on 02.10.15 at 9:33 pm — “Perhaps, like me, you were sitting around wondering about the macroeconomic impact of a Greek default or maybe what a war with Putin over the Ukraine would do to oil prices and poor Europe.”

Hey there SMan. Keeping well? I am!

Now, try this for something completely different. It’s a real screwed up world now!

http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-official-we-could-help-iran-attack-saudi-arabia-if-us-arms-ukraine-2015-2
_____________________________________________
That is the old school method of getting the economy pumped vigorously. Just start a war! Its been done so many times over my life! But it does work!

#129 Londoner on 02.11.15 at 10:09 am

“Steve Ricchiuto? Seriously? — Garth”

Hey, he’s actually in your camp. You guys just disagree on timing.

Anyways, the problem here is that you refer to rate rises as “normalization”. In the early days, options traders had the same issue when assuming normality in their valuation models.

#130 Interesting observation re @Mark on 02.11.15 at 10:16 am

@Mark can write anything, yet Sir Garth won’t comment. He used to comment but he’s now biting his tongue in what seems to be an attempt to make him go away. @Mark is coming up with some really “creative stuff” in hopes to get a reaction but to no avail.

Hang in there Sir, we are all cheering for you.

#131 MSM-free Zone on 02.11.15 at 10:34 am

#125 fancy_pants on 02.11.15 at 9:01 am
“…..Brian Murphy, of the Mortgage Advice Bureau, said: ‘The next six months are shaping up to be the best-ever window to secure a low interest rate if you are looking to buy or remortgage…….”
___________________________________

“Mortgage Advice Bureau” ??

I’m sure the REALTURDS® here a home in Canada are saying, “How come we didn’t think up a sucker-slogan like that!”

#132 AfterTheHouseSold on 02.11.15 at 10:44 am

#104 kommy kim
“Not to mention the collective intelligence of a nation who put Harper into power.”

I think it might have more to do with the “collective frustration” of the nation. With no fiscally responsible/socially conscience middle party to opt for, many pinch their nose and vote.

Here in Ontario, Justin does himself a great disservice appearing in photo ops with the spendthrift scandal plagued Wynn. This only serves as a reminder to Conservatives of the past federal Liberal scandals that got them booted out prior to Harper.

As an aside, we rarely vote in federally, the same party that’s in power in Ontario. It’s a crapshoot.
In the meantime you may find the Serenity Prayer helpful.

#133 Brutus on 02.11.15 at 11:01 am

I am very sad to say it but it is true.

WAR WITHIN WEEKS.

The economy will be wrecked.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/obama-sends-congress-draft-plan-seeking-authority-for-war-on-islamic-state/article22907800/

http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/02/russia-to-help-iran-attack-saudi/

This is how it all will come together.

Let us hope it does not go nuclear.

But it may, maybe just in a limited way. (I hope)

Ukraine+Middle East+The Rest Of Us+Home Grown Terrorists+ISIS+????+????+????

All to be connected very soon, it appears.

#134 ALR on 02.11.15 at 11:04 am

Mark – ALR has been around for 40 years and shows no sign of dissolving.

#135 Simon Cowell on 02.11.15 at 11:08 am

Interesting comments:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/falling-dollar-stephen-poloz-tells-g20-he-isn-t-trying-to-talk-loonie-down-1.2951683

Poloz is not talking down the Lonnie, he is sinking it.
Qualifying the guy as a complete idiot is putting it mildly. Insane statements, complete lack of communication skills, amateur… he is clearly not fit to be a central banker.

After all people get mad when lied to and mislead by an idiot, in a stupid, ignorant way, I start to miss Mark Carney, at least he had some class.
While Poloz is a real insult to everyone’s intelligence.

If you had 100 k in the bank a year ago Poloz is singlehandidly responsible for stealing at least 10-12 % of their purchasing power.

#136 cramar on 02.11.15 at 11:12 am

Hey, my wife and I have watched “Love It or List It” often in the past. I like Hilary’s designs. She’s good. I’ve picked up some nice ideas. Plus it’s fun deciding whether we would (in the fictional world) either keep the house or move.

Speaking of TV, anyone see Undercover Boss recently with Armando Montelongo? He is the biggest reno/house flipper in the U.S. Built a $200M fortune flipping houses and selling his “you can flip it too” seminars. Reputed to make $75M/yr doing it! Isn’t RE grand!? So easy! No more land being made so much better than crap shoot on Wall Street!

#137 B. skytrain on 02.11.15 at 11:14 am

The Vancouver housing crash in ’81!!!!!!
_________________
Yes it was awful.

18 months of dropping, followed by 33 years of uppa.

So painful.

This is how RE crashes in 604.

#138 B. skytrain on 02.11.15 at 11:22 am

________________
Not really ,

My big expenses are 100% in CDN. No loss whatsoever.

Property taxes, boat moorage, costco, booze etc, kids braces, etc have seen Zero change with the dollar. What, exactly are you talking about, aside from us travel?

#139 miketheengineer on 02.11.15 at 11:24 am

Garth et al

#86 Andrew Woburn said
“McDonald’s Steveston shuts up shop in Richmond”

This will be the trend going forward. Big Chain Fast Food…look at the price increases….and look at what you get….not much. For a 10 dollar meal, I can go an buy 2 loaves of bread and a jar of peanut butter and eat lunch for 2 weeks.

People are “tapped” out. Boomers don’t eat at McDonalds, on CPP…it is too expensive for them, when they can barely make ends meet. The government takes every dime they can from you. Wages don’t go up as fast as real inflation. Entry level jobs at 10 bucks an hour….guess what, you have to go to food bank to survive.

More retail and more fast food has to go, bye bye….cause people are “tapped out” of their cash.

#140 Ray Skunk on 02.11.15 at 11:30 am

#96 Uh Oh Canada

Where is your area?

#141 B. skytrain on 02.11.15 at 11:31 am

#134 ALR on 02.11.15 at 11:04 am
Mark – ALR has been around for 40 years and shows no sign of dissolving
—————
Mark is delusional on this point.
The alr is the most productive farmland in the country by a wide margin. It is a relatively tiny amount of land. It will never be sacrificed for backyards. Never. Period.

Vancouver city ran out of room for backyards 70 yrs ago.
(combined with demand, that is why lots are 1-5 mil)There is no alr anywhere near vanity that isn’t richmond swamp. Have you ever been here?

#142 Sky on 02.11.15 at 11:34 am

@ the US dollar doomsters : Gentlemen, the US dollar will not collapse. The US is running the international casino and the house always wins. US currency is backed by this :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Strategic_Command

and this :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unified_Combatant_Command

US debt is irrelevant, they’ll just keep on printing and cooking the books. Whatever it takes. China does have pull in the Forex but has no interest in slashing its own throat by crushing the US dollar.

China, Russia, and India are basket cases. India is STILL running their caste system, average Russians live in horrible conditions and don’t get me started on China.

Chinese do NOT own the land their buildings are on ( state owns the land).China’s biggest problem is the language(s). Many people living only a few kms apart cannot understand each other’s dialects and have only the written language in common. There are 30-50 THOUSAND Chinese characters. But :

“Studies in China have shown that functional literacy in written Chinese requires a knowledge of between three and four thousand characters.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_characters

3-4 thousand characters to memorize versus 26 letters of the alphabet? Who do you think has the advantage?

“By some estimates, 100 surnames cover 85 percent of China’s citizens….By contrast, 70,000 surnames cover 90 percent of Americans.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/21/world/asia/21china.html?_r=0

How can you provide an index for scientific papers or even a phone book without an alphabet? China is making an attempt at romanization with Pinyin. Pinyin is a phonetic system but because China’s languages are tonal (where one “word” has multiple meanings depending on how it’s pronounced) Pinyin will prove inadequate for the modern world.

Ever wonder how a Chinese typewriter works?

http://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/nll/?p=3092

I was really looking forward to an influx of translated modern Chinese literature but have come to realize this is little more than a pipe dream.

Sadly I can’t read Chinese scrolls. And the dirty little secret is… neither can most people in China!

#143 Hot Albertan Money on 02.11.15 at 11:36 am

Since YYZ and YVR already have their own shows, anyone willing to guess which city will get the newest Love it or List it?

I’m willing to bet Garth’s mortgage it’s Winnipeg

#144 Smoked squirrel meat on 02.11.15 at 11:37 am

One born every day.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investor-education/he-says-sell-the-house-to-pay-debts-she-says-stay/article22785707/

#145 Yyc not retired on 02.11.15 at 11:42 am

@123 s calgary
They have last years active listings as N/A too! So annoying!! I think because it’s approaching 200% increase they’ve decided to just leave it out. How convenient for them- don’t like the number? Let’s just not report on it. Creb.com

#146 Ralph Cramdown on 02.11.15 at 11:45 am

#133 Brutus — “I am very sad to say it but it is true. WAR WITHIN WEEKS.”

You’re such a poor predictor of geopolitical events that as soon as you open your mouth predicting war, gold drops 1% and oil drops 3%. Isn’t that a bit embarrassing? Also, where’s our predictions for the price of gold and silver?

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2014/02/28/happily-ever-after/#comment-289728

#147 Mister Obvious on 02.11.15 at 11:48 am

#103 devore

You nailed it!

The renters of Vancouver are taking a free ride at the expense of property owners. This reluctant largess will continue for some time yet.

It’s a fantastic opportunity for younger people who have not yet thrown their money away on houses to begin a lifelong habit of sensible investing.

#148 Smoked squirrel meat on 02.11.15 at 11:55 am

The future..

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/retirement-rrsps/mom-her-depleted-rrif-and-me/article22898285/

#149 Musty Basement Dweller on 02.11.15 at 11:59 am

That Poloz dude seems to get horny about being Mr. Unpredictable. (probably some kind of power trip). So now that everyone thinks he is going to drop the rate again I predict he doesn’t do anything this next time. (or maybe raise .25 , wouldn’t that be a turn on. )

#150 Musty Basement Dweller on 02.11.15 at 12:07 pm

“smoked squirrel meat” lol love the handle :) .. and a great idea to spice things up with a side of meow mix.

#151 Mark on 02.11.15 at 12:07 pm

“If you had 100 k in the bank a year ago Poloz is singlehandidly responsible for stealing at least 10-12 % of their purchasing power.”

Except that inflation, which is a measure of purchasing power, has been only on the low side of 1-2%. Which itself may be overstated as prices on a lot of stuff, including houses, have declined in the past year. Where do you get 10-12% from?

I personally wouldn’t “blame” Poloz for anything. If anything, the BoC has been way too hawkish over the past few years, running a policy rate that was so high as to not be justified by the state of the Canadian economy. The BoC finally saw the light and lowered policy rates recently, in recognition of not only the declining RE market, but the significant need to stimulate business development in Canada.

#152 cramar on 02.11.15 at 12:09 pm

Speaking of flipping houses… just got an idea to make millions! Just across the border in Detroit, the city has thousands of derelict houses they are trying to avoid tearing down. I could buy several dozen at $2k each, employ all local out-of-work people to reno & landscape, then sell for a tidy profit. With the booty, buy another hundred and do the same. Soon the whole city is renovated and beautified. A reality TV show could be made to cover the transformation. Call it “Motor City Makeovers!” That will make a fortune too!

Why hasn’t some American figured this out? Why does it take a Canadian to show them the way to the “American Dream”? Maybe because Canadians are the #1 RE geniuses in all the world!

#153 tax credit on 02.11.15 at 12:25 pm

The best part of the Canadian real estate tv shows is that their production is government/tax payer subsidized (like virtually every other CA tv shows).

#154 Mark on 02.11.15 at 12:26 pm

“. @Mark is coming up with some really “creative stuff” in hopes to get a reaction but to no avail. “

I’m not a particularly ‘creative’ person. I just look at the facts and the data, and come to conclusions based on the hard evidence. I am neither looking to buy, nor sell RE (am very comfortable with my own sorta balanced portfolio and renting), so I have far less conflict-of-interest than many posters.

“The alr is the most productive farmland in the country by a wide margin. It is a relatively tiny amount of land. “

Its such a tiny amount of land in the whole scheme of things, its practically a certainty that as demand exists, it will eventually be released to residential uses. Canada already has quite an over-abundance of farms. The short-term civic planning preference is for re-development of housing at existing sites, the so-called “teardowns”. Which, if you have travelled to cities such as Atlanta, makes perfect sense to avoid the creation of slums, and urban blight.

#155 The World According to MARK on 02.11.15 at 12:30 pm

Mark Is:

Dyslexic?
Foolish?
Uneducated?
Poorly Read?
Or just trying to get reaction?

Maybe a combination of the above?

#156 Smoked squirrel meat on 02.11.15 at 12:30 pm

Squirrels smoke
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HU_LWr6Y5Do

or can be smoked
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DVkc87w3ww

and squirrels fight back against smoking stoners
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HS29PHB0OrY

Squirrels rule.

#157 Sideshow Rob on 02.11.15 at 12:31 pm

Here is an interesting perspective on Canadian housing. No real surprises to the blog dogs.

http://www.mybudget360.com/canada-housing-bubble-canadian-real-estate-bubble-set-for-bust/#more-6075

Canadians had every chance to do the right thing. Despite the recent US experience with a national housing bubble Canadians refused to learn anything. They instead doubled down on the stupid. Brain dead Canadians still subscribe to the notion that massive housing debt equals massive wealth. Most people just have to learn lessons from personal experience. They will soon find out what massive debt really is…a ball and chain.

#158 Ex-Cowtown on 02.11.15 at 12:34 pm

#73 pwn3d on 02.10.15 at 11:03 pm

I heard a TREB commercial on the radio tonight, a first for me. Not sure what that means exactly but looks like they’re ramping up for the spring.

They were talking about how real estate in York Region has gone up 85% in the last 10 years. That’s conservative if you ask me. If you include leverage those who bought 10 years ago won the lottery. And it really is luck if you think about all of the world and local events that had to happen for this to work. Another big spring in the GTA.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Like any other investment, you’ve really only made $$$ if you cashed out and took the profit, otherwise you’re just letting it ride at the casino. Nobody’s “won the lotto” until they cash out. They might just a have a risky ticket that looks good…. for now. What they do with that ticket is another matter.

I sold my house, took the $$ and rent a newer better house for a fraction of what my old house cost me. I also sold out all my O&G stocks in July and captured a multi-bagger before the wheels fell off.

Got rid of the risky business stuff and went into a balanced portfolio. Doing well this year again.

There’s a difference between being up and taking a profit. You might be up, but I took a profit.

No offense, but I’d rather be me than you.

#159 droos99 on 02.11.15 at 12:42 pm

“US rates will start to normalize in June (that is not in doubt)”

“normalize” means to stay historically low?

that is not is doubt

#160 Debtfree on 02.11.15 at 12:46 pm

The new and improved anti terror law ( c44, c51) has a section with an offence which is confusing . ” interfering with the finacial stability of the country or its infrastructure . ” is your old boss talking about the finance dept., realters , the fed, us posters or you Garth . hes build the illusion of a great financial g7 leader on the backs of our youth and thier credit . Could pointing out the truth now be an offence or worse make you a suspect . I wish more people would read Kafka .

#161 Mark on 02.11.15 at 12:52 pm

“Maybe a combination of the above?”

None of the ‘above’. But speaking of trying to get a reaction, seriously, posting under a “Name” specifically with the intent of trolling? The phrase, “The lady doth protest too much, methinks” comes to mind.

I am guilty of a few grammatical abortions in my comments, but that’s because I devote a grand total of about 5-10 minutes each day reading and commenting here. And typing stuff into a tiny little window, without an editing feature, does make it hard to proofread.

#162 Victor V on 02.11.15 at 1:02 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/the-crash-position-scenario-for-the-canadian-dollar/article22907490/

BMO expects the Bank of Canada to cut again in March, and then hold steady, while the Fed hikes in September.

Other market players see the U.S. central bank moving faster, in June, and are speculating on a second and third cut by Mr. Poloz, Ms. Wilkins and their colleagues.

“While it’s not our base-case forecast, there is a non-zero chance that the bank could be cutting rates in June as the Fed initiates liftoff,” Mr. Gautieri said in a research note.

“The loonie will remain in crash position.”

#163 Poutchli on 02.11.15 at 1:04 pm

Genworth Canada, the private mortgage insurer, yesterday announced higher than expected loan losses on their book.

We’ve been yapping and hoping until now, but now we have a first fact of problems coming.

Ticker symbol: $MIC.CA

#164 Victor V on 02.11.15 at 1:14 pm

Andrew Coyne: Deflation is the latest phantasm being used as an excuse to engineer policies

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/10/andrew-coyne-deflation-is-the-latest-phantasm-being-used-as-an-excuse-to-engineer-policies/

Deflationistas are right to worry that should prices go into a sharp and sustained decline, they might take the economy with them, as people put off purchases in anticipation of still further price drops. But that’s highly unlikely: it doesn’t automatically follow that if prices ever drop even the slightest bit, they must inevitably fall into a death spiral.

Indeed, it would require quite spectacularly perverse monetary policy, of a type rarely seen (outside Japan) since the Great Depression. Just as inflation is “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” so is deflation. It doesn’t visit us like some plague, but must be actively engineered by central banks. Deflation, then, is effectively the mirror of inflation: a little bit of either will not kill you, so long as it does not become a lot.

If I’m skeptical of this phantasm’s likelihood, it is in part because the people most concerned about it seem to be the same people who would like to see more than a little inflation, on the theory that this would somehow prove stimulative. I had thought this discredited by experience long ago — it requires, among other things, that people do not realize inflation is rising, or take action to insulate themselves from its effects — but there you are.

There is no more need to panic about deflation than any previous hobgoblin. Keep movements in prices within a percentage point or two of zero, on either side, and we’ll be fine.

#165 Yogi Bear on 02.11.15 at 1:22 pm

Word is the Bank of Canada will be dropping its key interest rate once again – in March. It will decline a further one-quarter point, to 0.5%. That will likely mean a small reduction in bank prime and VRM costs, just in time for the Spring real estate market. The probable outcome?

Don’t be so naïve. Carney hinted he would raise rates something like 10 times. Number of times Carney actually raised rates = 0. This latest statement from the BoC is the same song, different tune.

Central banks everywhere have been trying to influence the markets by hinting at action so they don’t actually have to take real action. Our friend Mario over at the ECB is the poster child of this tactic. Unfortunately, he became the boy who cried wolf so when the markets finally called his bluff he was forced into real action.

The Bank of Canada has no intention of cutting rates again and allowing consumers to become even more indebted – something they themselves have constantly warned the public against. By merely hinting that they are open to another rate cut FX markets will keep the CAD depressed, which is all the BoC really wants.

The only way the BoC will cut rates again is if the market calls their bluff and the CAD appreciates significantly against the USD.

#166 Edmonton dwelling on 02.11.15 at 1:22 pm

Living in Edmonton all my live I know a lot of people, and a lot of friends of my parents & grandparents. Many friends of the family that are in their retirement years have tried to sell their homes but can’t. They’ve listed, and relisted and no bites for the prices the realtor told them that they could list for. Some of these couples and widows are aproaching 80 years old, or 90, many are the original owners of the home and can barely keep up to the responsibilities that a home demands. There are hundreds of households in this situation in just the westmount, inglewood & North glenora alone in our small city. What about the rest of this country? In Edmonton you can get a new house for $340,000 will the masses still pay $340,000 for a dated bung with asbestos?
In addition we’ve had a huge deregulation crisis, of utilities by The Conservative Government of Alberta. User fees utility companies now charge are often over 150% of the actual usage now. So to give you an idea of how bad it is, and the costs to seniors who have had incomes contract under the Conservative Federal Governments the last 8 years…. I was paying $25 for electrcity and $70 for gas in the winter of 2000 per month average, today 14 years later, I paid $125 for electrcity ( with new energy efficient appliances & led lights). And I’ve paid $245 for gas per month! We’re so screwed in Alberta. Why did our government do this to us??

#167 LL on 02.11.15 at 1:28 pm

#21 – M

“US rates will start to normalize in June (that is not in doubt).”

I agree with you M.
Each year (since 6 to 7 years now) they say they will rise the interest rate!
I think it’s to encourage people to buy before rate rise (and they never rise), and keep the real estate market alive.
It’s always the same story…interest rate will rise…interest rate will rise…bla…bla…bla…
They cannot rise interest rate!

The Fed has not said anything remotely close the that. — Garth

#168 Ralph Cramdown on 02.11.15 at 1:33 pm

#152 cramar — “Call it “Motor City Makeovers!” […] Why hasn’t some American figured this out?”

He has and he is.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Gilbert_(businessman)#Detroit_initiatives

The irony is that he got the money to do it by growing the USA’s second largest mortgage lender. Took it public at $130mm, sold it to Intuit for $532mm, bought it back from them for $64mm in *2002*. Impeccable timing.

#169 Mike S on 02.11.15 at 1:33 pm

“No impact in panic-stricken Alberta, but a big buzz among the W-watching moist Millennial virgins in 416 and 604, where two separate versions of ‘Love It or List It’ are shot. It’s pretty certain that consumer and mortgage debt will continue to increase, even in the teeth of evidence this is financial suicide”

Debt is going to increase anyhow, as some old “pre-construction” buyers, will be handed the keys to their new built condos/houses

But besides that it is pretty much done here. Spoke with couple of recent buyers (They were afraid to be priced out of the market). No abroad / No ski vacation for them. Money is an issue. It is sad really

If you look several months ahead. It is now very clear that things are heading downward. The next big shock is going to be CMHC losses, and Canadian Banks either missing on their bottom line or laying off excess personnel (Take an educated guess on which one is going to happen). This will be scapegoated on O&G trouble of course

#170 Musty Basement Dweller on 02.11.15 at 1:43 pm

Re: Mark Attacks:
To you who seem to have nothing better to do than berate Mark without offering a counter argument..Don’t you have something better to do?
Instead of attacking why don’t you try writing something that someone could possibly believe has some intelligent thought behind it? I’ve been looking for that in your comments..seems in short supply.

#171 Mike S on 02.11.15 at 1:51 pm

“5 – 10 years from now, I see a show about renters dealing with issues brought on by severe regrets about not buying in the GTA: “Wished it, but Missed It,””

Well I see a show called “Pay this or Pay that” It will be about the bubble buyers trying to figure out if they are better to pay the mortgage payment first or that property tax (they both going to be higher in the years to come)

#172 Irish Stew on 02.11.15 at 1:53 pm

Many talk about renting or real estate in TO or VCR, bu tin areas in SW Ontario, RE can be had for fair pricing vs. renting.

I dont think you can flip like the TV show pretend, but you can buy a place and rent it out and have it be self sustainable financially in some cases.

#173 Sheane Wallace on 02.11.15 at 1:55 pm

#151 Mark

You live in phantasy land my friend. You inflation meassures have nothing to do with reaility.

Everything is more expensive then ever today, even housing, even gas is around a dollar so no significant relief there either.

Were you the guy shorting the US dollar? My condollences. You have seen nothing yet. Loonie would be bellow 0.5 pretty soon.

Only an idiot can see manufacturing revival with weak loonie, the idiot that Poloz clearly is.

#174 Mike S on 02.11.15 at 2:00 pm

“The 2008/2009 collapse was a warning shot which unfortunately was not appropriately heeded.”

Did we (in Canada) looked at that warning shot for what it is or did we just went crazy into more debt?

To be hugely bearish on the US you should disregard all of their obvious long term assets, which are many, and likewise disregard real problems in the rest of the world

Can the US slow down? Sure we saw that happening, but long term they still hold all the cards …

Besides what is the alternative to the USD?

#175 SWL1976 on 02.11.15 at 2:09 pm

#94 Mark – Thanks for your insight as well. It’s getting increasingly difficult to make heads or tails of things these days.

The more points of view the better IMHO

#176 Smoked squirrel meat on 02.11.15 at 2:13 pm

It’s a Walmart world.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/us-business/wal-mart-to-invest-340-million-on-canadian-expansion/article22907085/

#177 MIKETHEENGINEER on 02.11.15 at 2:13 pm

Garth et al:

Can someone explain what happens if:

Greece Bails out of Euro – What happens to stock market and when is this likely to occur?

Is this the buying opportunity of a life time? Should we sell now, and capitalize on the gains?

Mike

#178 waiting on the westcoast on 02.11.15 at 2:15 pm

#165 Musty Basement Dweller on 02.11.15 at 1:43 pm
Re: Mark Attacks:

I agree. While I don’t agree with with a number of his theses, he does present his arguments well and does not lower himself to personal attacks.

A number of his arguments fail (in my opinion) because he takes only one facet of the forces present and follows to a conclusion. My belief is that there are more forces at play that combine to create the outcome.

But who am I to say what is right/wrong. I called for CDN interest rates to climb to keep up with the likely US increase (in order to preserve CDN$). Although I did expect the CDN$ to fall relative to the US (which so far has come far faster/harder than I expected).

#179 Vamanos Pest on 02.11.15 at 2:32 pm

Hey Garth, you think the strength of the US dollar will delay an interest rate hike in the US. The Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and jobs has been dominated by jobs since the financial crisis, but I think the run-up on USD will be a head-wind for growth, and jobs, in short term and may delay the rate hike. Thoughts?

What I fail to understand is why people care so much. The Fed rate will rise a quarter point in June. Get over it. — Garth

#180 Mark on 02.11.15 at 2:35 pm

You live in phantasy land my friend. You inflation meassures have nothing to do with reaility.

Yet I am paying less for gas than I paid even 15 years ago here. I am paying less for airfares than close to 20 years ago. Even the price of chicken is down considerably from 5 years ago. Retailing is a heck of a lot more competitive today than it was 10 years ago, so prices have gone down there as well. Cars are cheaper than ever, used or new, adjusted for the size and feature set. I’d be hard pressed to think of any item in my personal consumption basket that has gone up in price in the past few months, let alone over the past decade.

Everything is more expensive then ever today, even housing, even gas is around a dollar so no significant relief there either.

Housing is accounted for in inflation using owners’ imputed rent, or a measure of what equivalent accommodation would rent for in the marketplace. Little to no growth there either. And petrol might be a dollar where you are (let me guess, BC??), but wasn’t it $1.30-$1.5 not so long ago?

#181 Leo Tolstoy on 02.11.15 at 2:49 pm

I find Mark’s comments entertaining. Comedic relief. Similar to my grade school kid’s stories. It’s all in good fun. Everybody relax.

#182 Mike in Toronto on 02.11.15 at 2:52 pm

#178 waiting on the westcoast

“A number of his arguments fail (in my opinion) because he takes only one facet of the forces present and follows to a conclusion.”

Well put.

#183 Mishuko on 02.11.15 at 3:00 pm

I love how bandwagon jumps for joy when the cad drops as the holy grail for manufacturing… well let’s look at air Canada. they take a 43m drop in operating expenses after every penny drop in cadusd fx.

Our buying power drops. It costs more to purchase things and it’s cheaper for the external importers to grab our cheaper stuff. On the other side it costs us more to bring in products not home grown.

Oh the humanity. Guess there are fewer prudent executives that hedge their products with options… then again who hedges 100%…

#184 cramar on 02.11.15 at 3:06 pm

@ #168 Ralph Cramdown

Dan Gilbert is an interesting Detroiter. It looks like he is into commercial RE development (including apartments/condos), and business ventures. It doesn’t look like he is into flipping single-family renoed wrecks. Small bananas to him. Why gamble with residential RE, when you own real casinos?

#185 bdy sktrn on 02.11.15 at 3:08 pm

The Fed rate will rise a quarter point in June. Get over it. — Garth
———————————
the numbers say yes. 3 months ago i believed otherwise.

Mr T is right. One bump. then nothing for a long time. US economic flywheel has a little juice left in it.

#186 bdy sktrn on 02.11.15 at 3:26 pm

I’d be hard pressed to think of any item in my personal consumption basket that has gone up in price in the past few months, let alone over the past decade.
———————-
how about;

electricity, heat (even with low NatGas, we still pay more with fees+++)
eating out
apples (saw apples in a denman st produce stand 2bux each)
internet service
cell phone service
whistler lift tickets
road/bridge tolls
carbon tax (BC)
fast food
hotels
beef
seafood
car insurance
soon to come higher PST in 604 for transit.

this is somewhat balanced with many of the items you mention.

#187 Tony on 02.11.15 at 3:30 pm

Re: #183 Mishuko on 02.11.15 at 3:00 pm

Air Canada will file for bankruptcy. If you want to lose all your money buy their shares and wait for the announcement.

#188 Smoking Man on 02.11.15 at 3:39 pm

#181 Leo Tolstoy on 02.11.15 at 2:49 pm
I find Mark’s comments entertaining. Comedic relief. Similar to my grade school kid’s stories. It’s all in good fun. Everybody relax.
……..

No one likes a bragger. :=)

#189 Guessing Game on 02.11.15 at 3:48 pm

Can someone tell me when a $28.00 loaf of bread or a & $36.00 jug of milk is going to come into effect ?

I will die a sad man, if I don’t see that in my life time…

#190 jess on 02.11.15 at 3:52 pm

4 not 1st on 02.10.15 at 10:15 pm

re the robots…so how much energy does a robot factory eat? Are the deserts be the new industrial parks?

==========

#191 Victor V on 02.11.15 at 4:01 pm

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/insight-shifting-goal-posts-employment-may-signal-slower-060714415–business.html

SAN FRANCISCO/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Officials at the Federal Reserve are debating a historic shift in one of its core economic gauges that could lead the central bank to move even more slowly than now thought once it lifts its rates from rock bottom levels.

According to interviews with half a dozen current and former Fed policymakers and staff, the concept that the economy can produce far lower levels of unemployment without stoking inflation is being built into Fed models and becoming increasingly entrenched in the central bank’s views.

That shift may not delay the timing of the Fed’s first rate increase, still expected in mid-year. But it does offer Chair Janet Yellen a good reason to move at a snail’s pace from then on to bring as many people as possible back to work and to push inflation back up to the Fed’s 2-percent target.

#192 Sheane Wallace on 02.11.15 at 4:08 pm

#180 Mark, never tyred of being stupid.

15 years ago gas was 56 cents in Toronto.
Now is a dollar.

#193 saskatoon on 02.11.15 at 4:12 pm

if

qe1 didn’t work

and

qe2 didn’t work

then

qe3 didn’t work

Actually the easing in monetary policy worked just fine. — Garth

#194 Mark on 02.11.15 at 4:25 pm

“I find Mark’s comments entertaining. Comedic relief. Similar to my grade school kid’s stories. It’s all in good fun. Everybody relax.”

I don’t know how old you are, but Canadian families losing a small chunk, and now an even larger chunk of their greatest asset, their investment in residential RE, while their real debt burden increases is nothing to laugh about. That you find such to be funny really reflects a lot on your character. I hope you are a much different person in real life, than you are playing in your on-line persona, but sadly I have my doubts.

#195 For those about to flop... on 02.11.15 at 4:51 pm

Hey Sheane ,you call Mark stupid then proceed to misspell fantasy and tired in the same tirade .
Who’s the monkey?

#196 Smoked squirrel meat on 02.11.15 at 5:00 pm

Spelling doesn’t matter.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typoglycemia

#197 young & foolish on 02.11.15 at 5:26 pm

“All of the available evidence seems to indicate that the Canadian housing market, including in the GTA, GVR, and Calgary, peaked in the 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2013, and we’ve been coasting on fumes and manipulations … ”

This is absolutely true. RE has been sliding, and anybody watching the market closely knows this.

#198 Smoking Man on 02.11.15 at 5:28 pm

#195 For those about to flop… on 02.11.15 at 4:51 pm
Hey Sheane ,you call Mark stupid then proceed to misspell fantasy and tired in the same tirade .
Who’s the monkey?
………

What’s spelling have to do with smarts, it’s more of, I comply, or I don’t give a shit.

Win back 50gs in a week that your appreciate blew, banging in and out trades ain’t smart either, that’s just pure structured disciplined skill.

#199 Ralph Cramdown on 02.11.15 at 5:38 pm

#192 Sheane Wallace — “15 years ago gas was 56 cents in Toronto.”

Statscan says 67.1 in February 2000. Oil was about US$28/bbl and the Canadian dollar was about US$0.69

This implies an average annual inflation rate of 2.7% for gasoline

#200 For those about to flop... on 02.11.15 at 5:42 pm

Hey Smoked Meat ,what’s your point son ?

#201 young & foolish on 02.11.15 at 5:55 pm

I wonder what more people need to buy … we already have so much stuff, we hardly have space for it all.

#202 devore on 02.11.15 at 5:59 pm

#186 bdy sktrn

You’re just eyeballing these. Unless you rigorously keep track of a range of prices from a range of vendors over a period of time, you can’t say anything. It’s just an anecdote.

Most things are up over a year or 2, because of inflation. There are minor (and sometimes major) seasonal variations. Apples are more expensive, because it’s the middle of winter. A bad harvest or a natural disaster in a major apple producing region can double prices overnight. Taxes are up, because it’s the government. They always need more money, and always get it. Global and local demand changes over time. Time of day, day of week, and time in vendor’s inventory cycle also affects prices at the shelf. I still can’t figure out yogurt pricing, as they “randomly” range from $4.25 to $1.45 for no apparent reason that I can tell. 2 days ago, the price was over $4, today I picked up 2 for $3. Guess what the price will be tomorrow.

#203 fixie guy on 02.11.15 at 6:21 pm

#2 Babblemaster “I hate to say it, but in the long run, houses do always go up.”

It’s arithmetically impossible in any economic system, no wonder you hate saying it. My parents are getting to ‘that age’ and we recently calculated the return on their 1965 house purchase slides in just below inflation. Hot hot hot.

#204 Iconoclast on 02.11.15 at 7:18 pm

Of course Poloz is talking down the dollar; along the the rate cut that showed he was serious.
It’s due to the carnage in Alberta; a 20% cut in the loonie is a 20% boost for the price of oil in CDN.
It shouldn’t have been enough to affect home sales, but then we Canadians are stupid that way.

If he’s smart – and I dunno about that – Joe O will bring in a counterbalancing lowering of the CMHC limit.
Just a little one; 50 or 100k, to nudge down the prices, and just in TO and Vancouver.
They don’t want to burst the bubble, but we need it stopped.

These things of course can’t be seen to happen together, since they are “independant” of one another.
The new budget is going to be interesting.

#205 Ronaldo on 02.11.15 at 7:33 pm

From the Vancouver Province March 25th, 2000 when the TSX hit 10000 for the first time.

TSX 10052
Dow 11112
Nasdq 4968
SP500 1527
SP60 596
TSXV 4421 (Tech Bubble)
London 6738
Tokyo 19958
Hong Kong 17784
Euro .9760 US
CDN $ 68.4 US
30 yr bond 5.75%
Oil $28.02
Gold $284.70

#206 Mike on 02.11.15 at 8:49 pm

#171 Mike S

That will apply to the suckers that thought they could play the RE game with measly 5-10% downs, so what you described is the reality they are already living.

#207 David M on 02.11.15 at 9:37 pm

Don’t forget about the Grants the shows are getting from the taxpayers.

#208 Peter on 02.12.15 at 12:20 am

Really starting to love this blog……we’re in a period of change, and people/canadians have to deal with it.

#209 Editrix on 02.12.15 at 12:42 pm

Love It Or List It was Hillary Clinton’s favourite TV show.

Garth, did the Galley Avenue pile sell?