The warning

JUMP modified

Trevor’s a pilot. He reads this blog. He asked me not to name the airline, but you can be assured it’s a big player when it comes to hauling bottoms in and out of the oil sands. Trev tells me that prior to December his company’s planes were moving 30,000 people a week into Fort McMurray and the corporate air strips that surround it. Most of the bodies came from Ontario or the Maritimes. There are about forty thousand people who have for years made this trek – the fly-in/fly-out guys.

But no more.

“Since the beginning of the year we’ve lost over 75% of our oil sands related flying. Now we’re down to just moving people back and forth from Calgary (which is where the higher skilled/not easily replaced and last-to-go people live). There have been some massive layoffs, and our company is feeling the effects as well with roughly 20% of our flight attendants and pilots being laid off in the last 45 days and accompanying downgrades from captain to first officer (a $60K/year pay cut).”

Trevor hopes he still has a job by the summer. “At least we rent and are mobile to go look for new work! Thanks for all the work you put into the blog. Are you hiring?”

(Actually, the GreaterFool fleet management team just completed a round of placements, getting a new pilot who strangely resembles Johnny Depp and two stews to die for. But thanks. You’re on the short list.)

I thought it might be useful to juxtapose the hormonal tide and unvarnished hubris of yesterday’s post about delusional GTA and YVR with some news of people who are panicked. Fort McMurray just months ago was one of the hottest, priciest markets in Canada – especially for a place on the edge of the civilized world. Today there are almost 900 houses for sale in a region with just 75,000 people. Prices are falling daily.

Of course, a lot of the workies that Trevor transported lived in camps outside of the city, and close to the pits, upgraders and construction sites. As I told you a month ago, one of the largest operators of those camps, Civeo, has laid off a massive number of workers as camp occupancy rates plunged along with its share price.

Meanwhile in Calgary, a new month has not brought any relief from the January disaster. New listings have jumped 40% (again) and there are currently 4,914 actives – 120% more than at the same time last year. The average property price is down 5.8%, and the number of days it takes to find a buyer has increased 16%. Last year 850 houses in Calgary sold for more than seven figures, a 16% increase. Last month million-dollar sales fell by almost half year/year, while desperate homeowners slashed their asking prices.

Now, five weeks after this cheeky little site started its Cowtown Death Watch, the mainstream media has piled on. Well, that’s good. Everybody should know an inflated real estate market can turn from hero to zero in a matter of days.

Yesterday the Globe reported this:

“After pouring thousands into granite countertops, hardwood floors and new appliances, Sandra MacKenzie listed her 102-year-old house on a corner lot in Mount Royal for $1.4-million in November, just as oil prices were collapsing. Similar houses in the neighbourhood were selling for $1.5-million in the summer, but after weeks with little interest from buyers, Ms. MacKenzie recently slashed the price to $900,000. An open house last weekend brought 30 people, but no takers.

“I just can’t go any lower than that, but everybody is so scared to buy now because of the oil prices,” said Ms. MacKenzie, whose parents had taken out a reverse mortgage on the property, leaving her little equity amid falling prices. “I would even sell to a builder at this point. I hate saying that because it’s a beautiful home, but I’m getting desperate.”

For a long time it’s been obvious that when people join a cult, borrow against their futures and buy real estate they can’t actually afford, anything unexpected can ruin their world. In the West, it’s oil. But let’s not forget there are 30,000 families in Ontario, BC, Newfoundland and Nova Scotia who also no longer have an oil sands paycheque. Most of those job losses are so far unrecorded, with the impact of the unemployment as yet unfelt in local economies.

The moist Millennials rekindling bidding wars on the Danforth and the numbnuts paying $1 million for a beater house on Van’s Eastside should take note. Their world could also be ruined in as many heartbeats.

That was the message on Thursday in a new study with these conclusions: only in Greece (currently bankrupt and run by lefties) do households have more debt than in Canada. In fact, we’re now in worse shape than Americans were when their world blew up and house prices dropped 32%, wiping out the middle class.

The McKinsey Global Institute said Canadians are courting disaster and a potential “downward spiral” because we are delusional and addicted to house porn. “What the financial crisis showed us is that when you have rising real-estate prices and rising household debt, it can be a deadly mix. You have to manage each carefully.”

And how’s Canada managing this carefully?

Drop rates. Make mortgages cheap. Feed the debt junkies. Start a bidding war. What the hell.

It’s too late for Alberta. The rest of you are on your own.

281 comments ↓

#1 MEANWHILE IN FRANCE on 02.05.15 at 7:03 pm

Alright. I am booking my flight to YYC.
Who wants to house sit in the south of France?

#2 Julie K. on 02.05.15 at 7:07 pm

Can anyone recommend a good realtor working in the North Van area of YVR?

Asking for a friend…

#3 MikeS on 02.05.15 at 7:08 pm

And you can now add Redbox to the growing list of companies pulling out of Canada…

#4 Timbo on 02.05.15 at 7:11 pm

Funny – Positive spin on debt levels from BMO (taken from CBC.ca)

Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets is dubious about McKinsey’s analysis that Canadian debt levels are higher than those of the U.K. and U.S during the peak of the financial crisis.

“It’s true our debt-to-income ratio is above the current U.S. ratio of 136 per cent, but that just means U.S. households aren’t as indebted as we are now. It doesn’t mean we’ve hit the debt wall that Americans ran into, he said.

#5 mitzerboy aka queencity kid on 02.05.15 at 7:12 pm

thanks to the little thieve from swiftcurrent
Saskatchewan is in the same boat

#6 CougarLady on 02.05.15 at 7:13 pm

Yet the stock market keeps going up…..

#7 FK on 02.05.15 at 7:15 pm

Many sellers in Calgary are still not cutting their prices enough. When will they realise that lowering the price by 2-3000 every month does not sell? Soon the resilient ones will become desperate

#8 jimmy on 02.05.15 at 7:19 pm

Jimmy says Garth wouldn’t know what to do with his free time if he stopped this blog.

#9 Catalyst on 02.05.15 at 7:19 pm

During the mayoral discussion the topic of affordable housing came up. Their idea was to gift houses to the homeless. How have we strayed so far from a meritocracy.

#10 ole Doberman on 02.05.15 at 7:21 pm

Gartho is it time to back up the proverbial truck on real estate yet? Just give us the signal when.

#11 Benchwarmer on 02.05.15 at 7:23 pm

I’m watching the new listings pop up by the hr on Calgary MLS.
Cowtown Death Watch is in full effect! Yee Haw!

#12 Helen on 02.05.15 at 7:23 pm

I can’t get over how smug people in Vancouver are (I live in Van). Yes, rich foreigners live here, but they live in EVERY city this size across the globe! “They” weren’t the problem in the US housing market and they aren’t the problem here. Really looking forward to reality catching up with this place.

#13 Andres on 02.05.15 at 7:24 pm

My cousin bought a house in early 2009 which is just a breezy three minute bike ride from the cool eco-hippy hub of Commercial Drive in Van. I thought she was insane paying $580,000 for the place. It’s likely worth something in the $800’s now. What’s more insane – that they bought at that inflated price in 2009, or that people actually believe a house can accrue $300,000 in real, secure value in half a decade and jump head first into that market? Greater fool indeed.

#14 S. Bby on 02.05.15 at 7:29 pm

Anecdotal observations from my hood (Deer Lake in Burnaby): within a ONE BLOCK radius of my (rented) house, there are eight rental houses that I know of (there may be more). I am counting my own here and one is a duplex with 3 rental suites which I count as one. One large house was just sold last month for around 1.4M and is now vacant and for rent. Another large house was for sale last year, didn’t sell, so they raised the price, didn’t sell, now vacant and for rent for $3,200/month which they won’t get. It has been advertised for rent for at least 3 months now.

The housing speculation is absolutely rampant in this area.

#15 Victoria Real Estate Update on 02.05.15 at 7:30 pm

Victoria’s housing market is off to another weak start in 2015. Sales and prices of detached houses (SFHs) were lower in January 2015 compared to January 2014.

. . . . . . . .Average Detached House Price. . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . .Greater Victoria. . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .(Percent Below 2010 Peak). . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0%. . . . . . . . .*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-1%. . . * . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-2%. . . . . . . . . . *. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-3%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-4%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-6%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-7%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. . . . . . . . . . . . .
-8%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-9%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. . . . . . . . .
-10%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .*. . . .
-11%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
———————————————————————————–
. . . . . Jan. . Dec. Jan. . Jan. . Jan. . Jan. . Jan. . . .
. . . . . 10. . . 10. . 11. . .12. . .13. . .14. . .15. . . .

(Source: Victoria’s board)

In January, the average price of detached houses in Victoria fell 1.4% compared to a year earlier (3-month average).

This is a 3-month average price chart. To calculate the 3-month average price for January 2015, for example, the monthly average prices of November 2014, December 2014 and January 2015 were averaged together in order to utilize more sales and smooth out monthly price fluctuations. It provides us with a statistically significant gauge of the rate of price decline of Victoria’s housing market.

In January, the median price of detached houses in Victoria fell 2.0% compared to a year earlier (3-month median).

Victoria’s 5-year price downtrend continues, despite historically-low (emergency level) interest rates. In recent weeks I’ve put together other charts that have shown the same basic thing (see charts in comment #60 and comment #51).

(continued below)

#16 Confused on 02.05.15 at 7:34 pm

#2 Julie K.

Can anyone recommend a good realtor working in the North Van area of YVR?

Asking for a friend…”

Define good? Do you mean honest, reputable, trustworthy? Someone with the client’s best interest in mind? Someone with integrity? A professional who understands true market forces to determine logical trends?

No, not in 604

#17 Alison on 02.05.15 at 7:37 pm

When I wake up I cannot get my coffee fast enough.

Now in the evening, I cannot wait to read my greaterfool. You are now my second addiction. Thank you.
Also…love the dog picture… too funny

#18 Irish Stew on 02.05.15 at 7:38 pm

If you are tied to the US for your job – life looks good.
If you are tied to a CDN job, keep your head up.

The US is going to keep moving fwd w/ great results for my investments!

#19 MJ on 02.05.15 at 7:43 pm

That house in Mount Royal – is way over priced at 1.4 million. Seriously 100 year old home – looking at apartment buildings – ugly view and street – next to 14th Street

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=15150573

Location Address 1902 13 ST SW
Current Year Assessed Value 752,000
Community Upper Mount Royal

Too bad you can never trust the real estate agents…they never give you the full story.

You can get this Mount Royal property for 1.65mil

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=15105670

There are many people losing their jobs here in Calgary – it has just started. It’s not going to be nice.

#20 Victoria Real Estate Update on 02.05.15 at 7:44 pm

Sales of detached houses are off to another slow start across Greater Victoria. In January, sales of detached houses fell 4.1% compared to a year earlier.
(Source: Victoria’s board)

. . . . . .January Detached House Sales. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . Greater Victoria. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . (Compared to 2007). . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2007…**********************
2015…******
2014…********
2013…**
2012…**********
2011…*******
2010…***************
2009…**
2008…***********************
2006…****************************
——————————————————————————–
. . . . -40%. . . . . . -20%. . . . . . 0%. . . . . . +20%

(Source: Victoria’s board)
(Population adjustment source)

2007 represents an average year for detached house sales in Victoria (population adjusted for a fair comparison).

In terms of detached house sales, it is evident that 2015 is off to the third worst start in Victoria’s history.

Detached house sales have been extremely weak in Victoria since 2010. The following facts are simply shocking (even without population adjustment):

* 2012 – lowest detached house sales total since 1982.
* 2013 – second lowest sales total since 1984.
* 2011 – third lowest sales total since 1984.

Buyers, not sellers, determine the strength/weakness of a housing market. The weakness of Victoria’s market (since 2010) is a direct result of buyers fleeing due to extremely overvalued (bubbly) house prices and a weakening local economy.

At any given time (in a large enough housing market), there are always a number of sellers who absolutely must sell (due to divorce, a lost job, a job transfer, etc), while there exists no potential buyers who absolutely must buy. Therefore, in a correcting market (think Victoria), buyers control the market and buyers control the rate of price decline. Sellers can be stubborn about accepting lower prices, but buyers can simply choose to buy a similar (lower priced) property from a more motivated seller or simply walk away and wait for even lower prices. Victoria buyers are in this situation right now. They are in control and prices are falling.

Victoria’s declining market has frustrated sellers since 2010, forcing them to accept lower and lower prices. Many of Victoria’s near-peak buyers (now with negative equity) have learned the hard way that a falling market can leave you stuck in your house and that selling it with negative equity means you must either write the bank a big fat cheque or claim bankruptcy. I doubt many R/E agents warn their clients about the risks of buying.

(continued below)

#21 alafaciatua on 02.05.15 at 7:45 pm

Just start this blog the Alberta melt down. TORONTO
is doing just fine thank you as usual.

#haters

#22 jeff on 02.05.15 at 7:45 pm

Look st Saintfield in Toronto today. Asking $2.2 million, sold for $2.9 million, and it was just a lot, not a house!

Winning bidder is from China. At least 3 of the other offers were from Chinese people. Not landed immigrants, I mean people who live in China.

I know a few of the agents whose clients made offers and they told me. They only offered around asking.

The Chinese don’t want to live there, they are buying to build and sell. I was told of one Chinese guy who wired in $12 million a few weeks ago and wants to build a couple mansions to sell. This guy has no experience in building by the way, his agent, who is a real slick guy, practically guaranteed him at least 50% in 2 years.

#23 Irwin on 02.05.15 at 7:46 pm

Share of total employment growth due to Alberta.

http://www.otterwoodcapital.com/2015/02/05/this-is-a-worrying-chart-for-canada/

#24 Mark on 02.05.15 at 7:47 pm

” How is this buying frenzy continuing when the $600 billion CMHC cap hasn’t been bumped up? Seems like we are going on 2 years now since that announcement and there wasn’t much room left then.”

I’d suggest that the ‘buying frenzy’ that you’re hearing about has largely been manufactured by the RE industry playing with statistics. In other words, it doesn’t exist. Unfortunately most of Canada’s major news outlets are so beholden to the RE industry (and other industries reliant on such) for advertising dollars that they’re willing to print RE industry press releases almost verbatim as “news”.

I think we are not being told the whole truth here. That number is way over 600 Billion for sure”

There has been some expansion of the non-CMHC-insured subprime sector over the past 2 years. And CMHC’s ability to re-insure 3rd party subprime loans was bumped up from $300B to ~$350B. But I haven’t seen any evidence to suggest that any sort of Order-in-Council or other directive was passed giving the CMHC the authority to exceed the $600B limit of subprime loan insurance. If such existed, the Realtors and mortgage brokers would be all over that like maggots on rotting food.

#25 Franco on 02.05.15 at 7:49 pm

It’s sad, I have a friend with a good paying job that does the 2 weeks in, 2 weeks out and now he got laid off from the oil field. Life is sure not fair, you gotta keep moving and things will change.

#26 BG on 02.05.15 at 7:51 pm

Man, I don’t smile to all the pictures your put up there, but this one made me laugh!

#27 Ralph Ris on 02.05.15 at 7:52 pm

I came across this article that ruminates about why multiple series of QE around the world don’t appear to be having the desired effect.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/roubini-why-qe-isnt-working-022020826.html

He is, in effect, arguing, I think, that the problem is structural (aging population and excess capacity to produce goods) and so is not amenable to financial policy fixes. What do you think?

#28 Mark on 02.05.15 at 7:53 pm

“thanks to the little thieve from swiftcurrent
Saskatchewan is in the same boat”

Better that guy from Swift Current, than the Pastor who was completely incompetent and didn’t really have a clue what was going on, or his predecessor who was in bed with union cronies.

#29 Neta on 02.05.15 at 7:55 pm

Garth,
After following your blog for 5 years I am ready to make a prediction:
Vancouver and Toronto real estate will start rolling belly up shortly after you throw the towel!

#30 FTP - First Time Poster on 02.05.15 at 7:57 pm

Praise Be!

Amen.

#31 Fatima Llewellyn on 02.05.15 at 7:59 pm

I implore you all to read the full McKinsey report to which Garth refers:

http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/economic_studies/debt_and_not_much_deleveraging

Some helpful pieces:

“…Canada and Australia, now have larger household debt ratios than existed in the United States or the United Kingdom at the peak of the credit bubble.”

“…We look at levels of household debt, growth in debt, and debt service ratios to make an initial assessment of household debt sustainability and find that seven countries today have household debt that may be unsustainable: the Netherlands, South Korea, Canada, Sweden, Australia, Malaysia, and Thailand.”

“…By the middle of 2014, China’s total debt had reached 282 percent of GDP, far exceeding the developing economy average and higher than some advanced economies, including Australia, the United States, Germany, and Canada.”

“…Cover insets: Houses for sale, shadow men, Chinese construction, all © Getty Images.”

#32 BG on 02.05.15 at 8:01 pm

#6 CougarLady

Purrrrr

#33 mortgagebrokeron on 02.05.15 at 8:01 pm

Yah I live in Ontario, and let me agree with Garth. A lot of people are over their head in debt.

Dear Renters, just because your family / friends say they own their house they are really telling you a fib.

Bank owns their house. Having a mortgage means you owe money and the house is collateral.

Guess who is beneficiary of the fire insurance policy? yes the bank.

I am seeing someone today who is refinancing again. House worth 400000 and he will be borrowing 90% of it.. so he will really only have 40,000 in equity.

Yet people call themselves a homeowner…. Yah not quite.

This is a large percent of the population…. At least the ones I deal with

#34 Mark on 02.05.15 at 8:01 pm

“He is, in effect, arguing, I think, that the problem is structural (aging population and excess capacity to produce goods) and so is not amenable to financial policy fixes. What do you think?”

The root of the problem is that QE didn’t put a dime into the pockets of the productive class. In fact, QE made debt more difficult to service because it stimulated over-capacity in many industries.

All of the QE money went to bond-holders, because the Fed only bought bonds. Bond holders are disproportionately older people whose consumptive needs are already quite minimal on account of their age. None ended up in salaries. None ended up in equities. None ended up in corporate profits except in the already over-bloated financial industry.

This is why I am quite interested in the precious metals, because what they’ve tried simply hasn’t worked, and won’t work. And some sort of bondholder and currency devaluation is inevitable.

#35 Kuato Lives on 02.05.15 at 8:03 pm

Not sure what to think of the Cowtown deathwatch. Living here, I’ve been preparing for this for sometime. I sold in 2009 and took 200k in profit from my house, and have been renting ever since. On one hand I’ve been playing my cards right (or just gotten lucky), and stand to gain financially from this meltdown; however, that being said, I may have to say goodbye to some of my friends – almost all of them transplants from NFLD and New Brunswick and getting laid off. As I stare out at the Trap and Gil, my favourite pub, I wonder how long it has left with all its clientele leaving town. Life goes on I guess.

#36 Happy Renting on 02.05.15 at 8:03 pm

It seems fashionable to abandon all caution.

I discovered another reason why taking the TTC sucks: being in earshot of other people’s RE advice.

This gem from yesterday: “You don’t need a lawyer to buy a place because you have a real estate agent. Once you sign something it’s legally binding, anyway.”

My fault, really, for leaving my earphones at home. Live and learn! I wonder if the no-lawyer-RE-gurus will live to learn their own lesson…

#37 VYR WTF on 02.05.15 at 8:07 pm

Julie K. asked for “a good realtor working in the North Van area of YVR?”

depending on your definition of “good” here’s guy listing 237 Rondoval in North Van for ONE MILLION OVER the appraised value…

http://www.zoocasa.com/en/north-vancouver-bc-real-estate/3093351-237-rondoval-crescent-north-vancouver-bc-v7n2w6-v1102155

#38 Smoking Man on 02.05.15 at 8:08 pm

When you’ve spent 12 to 20 years in school learning obidance and what it take to be a good employee, or in the pilots case, a partner…. Bahahaha.

Slaves.

Now if you realize, buying and selling shit is where it’s at, you could careless what happens to real estate..

Four 3 days now I’ve been trying to recover my son’s forex loss.

Made another 12.5k today. Duration of each trade, no more than 10 minutes.

And if the idiot didn’t log me off by logging in, just as I was about to join a rush… I could have added another 20k.

Proof on the shit blog…

Now this is not for everyone, it’s highly dangerous, huge risk… Years off staring at charts for years, a news junky in a Tinfoil Fadora.. And I still have the odd ass kicking, but I win more than I lose.

You can’t teach this, and even if I could. You did everything right Emotions will destroy rookies…

Now nothing stopping you from finding a need, purchase and resell it..

But trading time for crumbs, it’s a sum zero losers game.. Less you work for the govt or Ontario hydro and retire at 55.

#39 shemeck on 02.05.15 at 8:09 pm

oh mr garth your full of hot air you been waiving that the sky is falling for too long ,when you gonna learn as long as interest rates stay low the gta will prosper now put a sock in it!

#40 Mark on 02.05.15 at 8:10 pm

“I thought she was insane paying $580,000 for the place. It’s likely worth something in the $800’s now. What’s more insane – that they bought at that inflated price in 2009, or that people actually believe a house can accrue $300,000 in real, secure value in half a decade and jump head first into that market”

She could have taken her $580k at the time and bought the TSX by way of a simple index fund like XIU. Today she would have over $1.2M, and wouldn’t be freaking out about sitting atop a bloated overpriced asset.

#41 Marco on 02.05.15 at 8:12 pm

Thanks Garth, glad you didn’t stop.

“(Actually, the GreaterFool fleet management team just completed a round of placements, getting a new pilot who strangely resembles Johnny Depp and two stews to die for. But thanks. You’re on the short list.)” ~ Garth
Lol!
Pirates of the Canadian real estate wilderness.

#42 ANON on 02.05.15 at 8:13 pm

The Warning #5: Blow off top in housing.
Bonus: Also in equities.

#43 Ollie on 02.05.15 at 8:13 pm

Said it before, will say it again with different words. Many know, some don’t…
Markets are driven by greed and fear. They are not necessarily mutually exclusive, but work in a slightly different way, and can coexist.
Markets fall out of fear.
Lower interest feeds the greed, it doesn’t reduce the fear. Right now the fear is already set in Alberta, and will come to Toronto and Vancouver soon.
NO amount of interest drop will reduce the fear. Some part of the buyers’ pool are still driven by greed. Small, smaller by the day. The delusional of the delusional.
I rent and had some at the door the other day… “Are you selling the house?”. Ha ha, good one. (I live in a rich hood)
The hipster had a Rover, the ‘gent an X5. The hipster exuded infantillism. You just could not miss it (How in the world they get by?).
My point is, that guy is the type living in a bubble (no pun intended). The majority of people now are at least vaguely worried for their jobs. Some of them more concretely worried. This is fear, or soon to become fear. I would say 8/10 are going through this. The 2/10? They will find out soon enough. The market is pooched now. Greed is dwindling in numbers and intensity. Fear is extending and intensifying.
Unless we get a printing scenario to lift all boats and hide the real value crash, it wil come big time. First we get a sharp bout of deflation. Then, when assets are grabbed, the inflation comes. It’s been forver like this, it will be the same. Don’t reach for your history books… It’s been DELETED.

#44 Contrarian Coyote on 02.05.15 at 8:14 pm

Left Cowtown 3 weeks ago – luckily just a renter. I should’ve seen the early warning signs when Civeo/PTI Group put a freeze on my application process late summer. Great blog, Garth – glad I found it!

#45 Yogi Bear on 02.05.15 at 8:16 pm


Ms. MacKenzie recently slashed the price to $900,000. An open house last weekend brought 30 people, but no takers.

“I just can’t go any lower than that, but everybody is so scared to buy now because of the oil prices,”

What’s funny is the 2014 assessment on that property was something around $700,000. Her parents also have a reverse mortgage on that home and by her own admission she virtually no equity. She can’t go any lower than $200,000 higher than it’s last assessed value. Debt trouble, anyone?

Poloz kicked the can down the road by lowering interest rates. He saw what was coming because the writing was on the wall. Oil in massive over supply. Major layoffs (not related to the energy sector) across the country. Real estate poised to correct once the economy turns to the dumps.

25 basis points doesn’t do much for mortgages or business investment but Poloz is getting exactly what he really wanted – a decimated CAD. This has kept some of the oil majors in positive operating cash flow (though still unprofitable or break even) due to FX gains. And of course, exporters everywhere in the country become more competitive globally.

Methinks he knew what was coming and manipulated the CAD to spread out the damage as much as possible and hoping on a sliver of hope that Canada will avoid recession.

Given the small chance we escape our current conundrum without a recession in Canada, was Poloz’s decision ethical? Is this a case of greater good or was it irresponsible to allow debt-loving Canadians to get a little more in debt before everything starts to unwind?

#46 My House is my Friend on 02.05.15 at 8:19 pm

I thought the US economy was turning around?

IBM is laying off 100,000 workers

http://spectrum.ieee.org/view-from-the-valley/at-work/tech-careers/massive-worldwide-layoff-underway-at-ibm

And Apple just made more money than God has. — Garth

#47 mishuko on 02.05.15 at 8:19 pm

I read a comment somewhere about how the debt to income ratio in Canada included our small businesses as other countries didn’t.

I am skeptical of that comment though it made me think of the methodology used.

#48 Zen on 02.05.15 at 8:21 pm

You can’t make up how bad it is. We are single-digit years (perhaps months) away from the most profound market clearing event since 1932.

When this happens my biggest fear is not the crash … it is the policy makers response to the crash. They will (as they always do) overreact, overtax, over legislate, and overreach … right into your retirement and savings accounts in order to save themselves and the banks.

I cannot finish reading Ann Rand’s Atlas Shugged because it reads like a depressingly real non-fiction account of the world we live in today.

We have reached a profound point in history where the truth is unpalatable to the political class. They cannot handle the truth so they ignore it and just kick the can. The scale and magnitude of the problem is larger than their ability to respond … and it terrifies them.

Instead of making the hard structural changes required to soften the blow, they simply cut rates and print money to encourage the plebs to spend and lever up in the hope that it will create a “wealth effect”. This is the central banker playbook and it’s worked in the past, but the 30-year long debt super cycle is reversing itself now so the jig is up.

#49 Jonathon on 02.05.15 at 8:23 pm

Damn it. Where’s the dog blog you promised us yesterday?

#50 waiting on the westcoast on 02.05.15 at 8:24 pm

I wonder how the Millennials will pay for their McMansions on variable pay…

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-05/sorry-millennials-we-re-out-of-the-jobs-you-want

#51 Mark on 02.05.15 at 8:24 pm

“25 basis points doesn’t do much for mortgages or business investment but Poloz is getting exactly what he really wanted – a decimated CAD.”

But the thing is, how long will the CAD$ remain “decimated”? As Canadians start to repay debt and de-leverage, there is going to be enormous upwards pressure on the CAD$. Poloz is going to probably be forced to fight in vain to keep the CAD$ down, and just another 75bp of policy rate cuts isn’t going to cut it.

#52 Life after Delivery on 02.05.15 at 8:27 pm

In a mother’s womb were two babies. One asked the other: “Do you believe in life after delivery?” The other replies, “why, of course. There has to be something after delivery. Maybe we are here to prepare ourselves for what we will be later. “Nonsense,” says the other. “There is no life after delivery. What would that life be?” “I don’t know, but there will be more light than here. Maybe we will walk with our legs and eat from our mouths.”
The other says “This is absurd! Walking is impossible. And eat with our mouths? Ridiculous. The umbilical cord supplies nutrition. Life after delivery is to be excluded. The umbilical cord is too short.” “I think there is something and maybe it’s different than it is here.” the other replies, “No one has ever come back from there. Delivery is the end of life, and in the after-delivery it is nothing but darkness and anxiety and it takes us nowhere.”
“Well, I don’t know,” says the other, “but certainly we will see mother and she will take care of us.” “Mother??” You believe in mother? Where is she now? “She is all around us. It is in her that we live. Without her there would not be this world.” “I don’t see her, so it’s only logical that she doesn’t exist.” To which the other replied, “sometimes when you’re in silence you can hear her, you can perceive her.” I believe there is a reality after delivery and we are here to prepare ourselves for that reality.

#53 Smoking Man on 02.05.15 at 8:30 pm

And Apple just made more money than God has. — Garth

So true, and my kid, don’t think he has a future in Forex.. He just signed up for boot camp, iOS, going to learn how to build apple apps..

Then I will help him convert some off my killer desktop apps, to Apple apps.

Then watch him become a zillionaire over night, I will take a small cut..

#54 Lefties? on 02.05.15 at 8:31 pm

You mentioned “lefties”?

The only lefties are seniors (with paid off homes) who are over 65 and expect the younger generation to pay for their health care.

#55 Nemesis on 02.05.15 at 8:34 pm

#Pilots?…Pilots!?!… #WeDon’tNeedNoStinkin’Pilots…

http://youtu.be/ClYBmgTD8UI

#56 The warning | Realties.ca on 02.05.15 at 8:34 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/02/05/the-warning-5/ […]

#57 Entrepreneur on 02.05.15 at 8:34 pm

B.C. Liberal Leader Christy Clark says lots of jobs here in British Columbia. Oh, is that so. Where are the jobs? All our youth went to Alberta to work. We live in a forestry industry area and the locals say operating heavy-duty equipment are the only jobs left (automation). Ex-premier Gordon Campbell (Liberal) said the same thing about lots of jobs in B.C. People around here rushed to the work area but found just the opposite, no jobs. Instead travelled to Alberta.

Where are the jobs in B.C; I like to see the facts and figures. It is easy to say there are lots of jobs in B.C. but that is soooooo general. What, take more courses and you might get in, if lucky. Lots of jobs????? Lots of talk, show me to justify the lip service.

#58 Ollie on 02.05.15 at 8:34 pm

#40 Yogi Bear on 02.05.15 at 8:16 pm

Methinks he knew what was coming and manipulated the CAD to spread out the damage as much as possible and hoping on a sliver of hope that Canada will avoid recession.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

You really cannot drop the father figure obsession? Nobody up there gives a rat’s ass on your lives. Everything they do is by the plan, for the goal. Even the inflation/deflation maneuver repeated throughout history has been improved. Now they employ deflating for the masses while inflating for their own. See TARP and QE. Even the oil price drop in the absence of the supply demand imbalance (not true what they claim, look the figures yourselves) is just to grab energy assets, after RE.

Look out, Napoleon won. Wellington lost. Time to back up the truck.

#59 8102 on 02.05.15 at 8:34 pm

I am constantly amazed at how experts from all over the world continue to comment on the precarious position the Canadian Economy finds itself in along with the huge amounts of Debt so many people have decided to take on, yet our own “In Country Experts” continue to deny, query, or challenge these findings.

The thing I find odd is that this is a Federal Election Year and there does not seem to be any discussion on the state of our collective finances by any of the parties which is a far greater threat to our Country than some idiots running around in the desert.

I must be missing something!

#60 Freddie on 02.05.15 at 8:39 pm

#13. Your cousin has not made a dime until he or she sells. That is the issue, people think they are rich because their neighbour sold the house down the street at price more that they paid for theirs.

#61 Westcdn on 02.05.15 at 8:40 pm

Personally I think a 7% HST in Alberta is a good idea if Alberta wants to pay for government expenditures. Pride comes before the fall. Good lord, can you think of a better tax regime to the poor if you allow generous personal exemptions.
I am starting to think a graduated property tax is a good idea. For example, if your home is assessed above the median, you pay a higher rate. Everybody pays the same rate until a certain assessment value. Then those above pay a surcharge.
I was listening to a speaker on BNN who mentioned the idea of junior oil company COEs being let go in spades due to consolidations. They are too expensive to keep – no sadness on my part. My only concern would be how to kill the golden parachutes and save the shareholders.

#62 cash back crikey on 02.05.15 at 8:43 pm

Take out mortgage & get cash back, take a loan & get cash back, take credit card & get cash back hmmmm ever heard the Freudian tale about Pavlov, the dog and the piece of meat ? “Learned” behavior!

#63 Garth we hardly knew ye on 02.05.15 at 8:46 pm

Garth

I hope yesterday’s petulant rant about shutting the blog down was just a one off case of spitting out the dummy and not a real threat…….OTOH…I wonder if you might ever get the urge to jump into the real estate game once its starts the inevitable death spiral….maybe with a hedge fund focused on distressed assets?

#64 Yuus bin Haad on 02.05.15 at 8:47 pm

Garth: No need for any more editorial – left or right – no more Greece this; Russia that – U.S. whatever – Mother Nature’s in charge now. Just continue to offer the unwashed your sage advice. We’ve witnessed this cycle before and those who pay attention come out unscathed.

#65 Washed Up Lawyer on 02.05.15 at 8:54 pm

Dogs:

Can I avail myself of the wisdom of you K9s?

I renew the indenture on the homestead in Cowtown by April 1 as I come off of 5 years at 3.19%. These days, I get quoted a 5 year fixed at 2.79% but 1 and 3 year fixed rates which are higher. To borrow a phrase from the bond market, are those rates “inverted” (to a borrower) and what might they signify? Am I correct in my simplistic analysis that lenders are predicting lower rates to come? I think I will wait for a possible March announcement from the BoC poodles.

Thx in advance.

#66 Andrew Woburn on 02.05.15 at 8:55 pm

259 Fatima Llewellyn on 02.05.15 at 11:34 am
Societe Generale’s notoriously bearish strategist, Albert Edwards, has warned that the deflation threat currently dogging the euro zone is greater in the U.S. and that equity markets will soon be “ripped to smithereens.”

“The deflationary fault line on which the U.S. sits is every bit as precarious as that of the euro zone, but is being disguised,” he said in a new research note on Thursday.

“The scales will soon lift from the market’s eyes.”

Check his track record. — Garth

===================

Apparently he’s not a complete idiot, but he may be underestimating the relentless determination of the major central banks to keep the bubble aloft.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-10-02/albert-edwards-says-watch-japanese-yen-and-be-very-very-afraid

#67 KAC on 02.05.15 at 8:59 pm

Julie K #2

I used a North Van realtor a few years ago and he did a very good getting my home lots of exposure, numerous well-qualified buyers and quickly selling it for more than I expected.

I have since recommended him to two friends and they were both very happy with the results he brought them.

I have not had any experience using him as a buyer’s agent but I suspect he would be equally industrious.

Here’s his website, good luck.

VancouverSelectHomes.com

#68 Euro pean on 02.05.15 at 9:02 pm

It would be very helpful if someone could help decipher the “benchmark price” MLS® HPI.

This was posted on a very informative web site for Calgary real estate:

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2015/02/05/airdrie-real-estate-market-report-january-2015/

Unfortunately the actual index itself is quite ridiculous. I would be very curious to what “sophisticated statistical model” the real wizards at CREB or MLS use to get rid of the “price fluctuations”.

#69 HJD on 02.05.15 at 9:04 pm

“That was the message on Thursday in a new study with these conclusions: only in Greece (currently bankrupt and run by lefties) do households have more debt than in Canada.” Garth

I sense that you’re putting down lefties. The bankruptcy in Greece was caused by righties. And German righties now refuse to allow the EU to forgive Greece’s debt, even though, ironically, the West forgave Germany’s much higher debt (caused by righties) after WW2. The austerity imposed upon Greeks probably has little negative impact on the wealthy right-wing members of their society. So, thank goodness democracy brought those lefties into power. Someone has to protect average Greeks. Otherwise, the wealthy will (once again) be bailed out at the expense of everyone else in Greece – remember how the financial crisis of 2007-2008 was resolved?

#70 No Longer a Fool on 02.05.15 at 9:06 pm

Garth, another excellent post. Keep up the great work, I’m addicted to this blog.

Anyone else notice how CREB.com is no longer publishing previous year’s housing stats? They show up as “N/A” on creb.com. Seems to me like the the realty cartel is trying to cover up what’s going down in YYC R/E. Any thoughts?

#71 amazon girl on 02.05.15 at 9:08 pm

amazon girl to Smoking Man # 38 , so true loving you
more today , as myself 6 years more to retire….
Made easy 5 today could close at 10 but husband emotions cut the day short.one more day of slavery

#72 Freedom First on 02.05.15 at 9:08 pm

Yes. Born in Toronto, lived in 4 Provinces, currently in Alberta. Been giving an update for a few months on an ear to the ground report on the SHTF in Alberta. People didn’t believe my reports on the layoffs and the flight traffic dwindling to/fro Fort McMoney, and people on this Blog called me a liar and said if it was really happening as I said they would have heard of it by now. That sounds familiar, eh?

My today ear to the ground progress report on SHTF in Alberta : The number of idiots who don’t think SHTF could happen in Alberta is falling rapidly. People are palpably scared now. People are asking me if I am hiring. Much younger pretty women are asking me if I have a girlfriend, and stomp away angry when I say they are not around long enough to earn the title of girlfriend, as I won’t give them a key to my place. Ever. I am honest. Some accept my boundaries thinking I will change when I start caring for them. I do care, but not as much as I care for myself. My freedom always comes first.

#73 Irwin on 02.05.15 at 9:10 pm

#52 Life After Delivery

Very good!

#74 Mark on 02.05.15 at 9:11 pm

“I renew the indenture on the homestead in Cowtown by April 1 as I come off of 5 years at 3.19%. These ….”

Its my personal view that for people who are highly creditworthy (ie: decent job, equity > 60%, LTV < 40%, etc.), there will be lower rates in the future, and perhaps going into the short-term products would still be appropriate.

But if you have a weaker equity position, think you're going to have job difficulties, etc., then its a no-brainer, IMHO, to take the 5-year fixed rate. This will afford you at least some measure of protection against widespread rate escalation on account of declining credit-worthiness of Canadian borrowers. I believe it is quite likely that the banks won't pass on future BoC policy rate decreases, or will only minimally pass them on to not-so-creditworthy retail borrowers.

#75 notagreaterfool on 02.05.15 at 9:13 pm

BMO is cutting budgets. Many discretionary spending planned is now on hold for 90 days. Evaluations are underway. If there is no uptick in economic news, those holds will become cancellations. Workforce will be shed then.

The other banks are the same way.

#76 Andrew Woburn on 02.05.15 at 9:14 pm

13 Andres on 02.05.15 at 7:24 pm
My cousin bought a house in early 2009 which is just a breezy three minute bike ride from the cool eco-hippy hub of Commercial Drive in Van. I thought she was insane paying $580,000 for the place. It’s likely worth something in the $800’s now.
====================

I think they shot the last hippies a few years ago. It’s mainly hipsters on the Drive now. It’s all part of the Yorkville cycle.

#77 lala on 02.05.15 at 9:15 pm

Happen to drive in 401 this morning, got me 1 hour to get from Yonge to Kennedy, I was pulling my hair. But the funny thing were the dummy faces without expression of other drivers. They have no choice but to seat on the traffic and waste their time, that’s what debt will do to you, it will turn you to “driving dead”.

#78 Euro pean on 02.05.15 at 9:20 pm

“Benchmark price MLS®/CREB®: A year of smoothing applied in a sophisticated model, you will never notice the fluctuations even in a few months of collapsing prices. (HOPEFULLY you will not notice the changing feeling in the market, unless its changing to the way up…but the direction wouldn’t matter anyways because we would never admit that its actually falling in the first place ;).”

REMAX
We know what’s best for you, our customer.

Is my best description of this index.

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.05.15 at 9:22 pm

@#57 Edith on 2/2/15
Your comment
“the fall in oil is good for drivers……..”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Gee the price of gas in the Lower Brainland is now $1.14.9/liter.
A mere jump of 13 cents IN LESS THAN A WEEK.

But we cant talk about THAT!

You ARE a realtor arent you.

#80 Snowboid on 02.05.15 at 9:22 pm

#57 Entrepreneur on 02.05.15 at 8:34 pm…

Here’s a link to a blogger who puts the real economic stats into readable graphs and charts.

It talks about the decline of forestry in BC

http://northerninsights.blogspot.ca/2015/01/de-plan-de-plan.html

He regularly dissects the facts behind the political spin, especially with resource industries, LNG and BC Hydro.

#81 Vanecdotal on 02.05.15 at 9:28 pm

#14 S. Bby

Same happening in White Rock & immediate areas. Builders appear to be the primary (almost only?) drivers in the SFH market out here now and have been for several years, while foreign buying of the finished product appears to have substantially cooled, (nearly disappeared?)

SFH speculation still appears rampant by BUILDERS, not owner occupiers, buying tear downs for lot value. Average family buyer appears entirely priced out (for now). Completed luxury flips are LANGUISHING, some coming back on now for their 2nd-3rd-4th Spring market. Agree with other posters, this is the blow-off top phase of the market unfolding as we speak.

Interesting to see an ABSENCE of ping ping-pricing in many luxury relists. They are coming back at @same price or lower than lowest price last fall before de-list, right out of the gate. We’ll see if they sell this year at lower prices… or not.

The McMansion re-lists in the local ‘hood are popping up now as well, so far coming to market LOWER than lowest price last fall before de-list, this is NEW. Defined downward trend on the ASK price. (Not “just” in the typical declining / flat / not keeping up with inflation assessed values). Especially evident in the $million plus listings, there are more than token drops happening all over the place out here. Sub $million prices trending slightly down as well. More than a few have seen $multi-million drops in the last year.

I think it’s fair to say this last buying frenzy, even in Van city is being primarily driven by builders/speculators, NOT owner occupiers. This is not representative of “smart” money in this scenario imho. That appears to already be leaving the building in some Lower Mainland areas, (more to soon follow), pun intended. Once the average Kool-Aid chugging Joe/Josie even notices the exodus, watch the sentiment change on a dime.

#82 Marco on 02.05.15 at 9:28 pm

@8102

“The thing I find odd is that this is a Federal Election Year and there does not seem to be any discussion on the state of our collective finances by any of the parties which is a far greater threat to our Country than some idiots running around in the desert.”

Good observation. You’re definately not missing anything. It has been very quiet out there.
No party probably wants to touch this with a ten foot pull at the moment. As it plays out.
Cheers.

#83 Victoria Real Estate Update on 02.05.15 at 9:30 pm

House prices in Victoria remain deep in bubble territory, despite a market correction of 12-15% from peak levels. Consider prices in the US where household incomes are similar to Canada’s.

Arizona:
$132 K, Coolidge, AZ (Phoenix) (5 beds, 3 baths, 3,095 sq. ft., built in 2006, attached double garage)

Florida:
$194 K, Jacksonville, FL (5 beds, 3 baths, 3,539 sq. ft., built in 2006, attached double garage)

Nevada:
$238 K, Las Vegas, NV (5 beds, 4 baths, 3,001 sq. ft., built in 2006, attached 3 car garage)

Georgia:
$160 K, Atlanta, GA (5 beds, 3 baths, 3,243 sq. ft., built in 2008, attached double garage)

Texas:
$165, Houston, TX (5 beds, 3 baths, 3,360 sq. ft., built in 2005, attached double garage)

Girls and guys, simply lose the idea of buying a property in Victoria’s extremely overvalued (and falling) housing market for now.

It makes no sense to buy a bubbly Victoria property right now when you can rent the same property (risk-free and worry-free) for less and wait for lower prices.

Remember, you don’t have to take on a dangerous mortgage to have granite and hardwood, you can simply rent it. Do the responsible thing for you and your family.

Until next time – Cheers!

#84 Predictions2015! on 02.05.15 at 9:31 pm

Hi Garth,

I’m glad you’re fighting the good fight and haven’t thrown in the towel. I’m surprised you read my mind today with that doberman picture! Thank you for all that you have done and continue to do with your blog.

#85 Chump on a Stump on 02.05.15 at 9:32 pm

Surely, I can’t be alone in the frustration of seeing the government cut the interest rate and people continue buying houses with price tags that are out of this galaxy.

I’m starting to the think that a correction in Ontario RE will never come; after all, we live in a socialist country. I’m tired of hearing people around me gloat about how much their houses have made JUST BY LIVING IN IT. I can’t help but feel a sense of schadenfreude.

The truth is, the government has to remain politically correct and provide for every soul in this frigid land. That includes delusional people who worship RE gods. They won’t be booted out to the curb if they get underwater.

Case in point: Boomers who didn’t save a dime because they were too busy buying rock star cars and houses, and taking tropical vacations to Punta Cana, won’t be left to wither on the street either. Already, hundreds of hospital beds are taken by old people who have nowhere to go. They are waiting to wither in a subsidized long-term care facility because they didn’t give a thought to what they were going to do once their bladders gave out.

Rant over.

#86 Vanecdotal on 02.05.15 at 9:35 pm

Oops – that’s “ping-pong” pricing. Der.

#87 HD on 02.05.15 at 9:36 pm

@ #52 Life after Delivery on 02.05.15 at 8:27 pm

Ouf. That was a poor and unconvincing metaphor/analogy in my humble opinion. But what do I know?

The following is much better for those who are interested in a great write up about the topic…

http://waitbutwhy.com/2014/10/how-religion-got-in-the-way.html

Best,

HD

#88 Ollie on 02.05.15 at 9:36 pm

#52 Life after Delivery on 02.05.15 at 8:27 pm

I don’t have enough thumbs to point them up for you. THANK YOU!

#89 lala on 02.05.15 at 9:39 pm

DELETED

#90 nonplused on 02.05.15 at 9:42 pm

Fort Mac is on the edge of civilization? I think not. Civilization is in New York or California, maybe Toronto or Vancouver – Seattle, maybe Denver or Houston. Fort Mac is miles and miles and miles from any of those places. It’s a mine camp and nothing more. Calgary and Edmonton aren’t much better but they are at least big mine camps.

North of Edmonton about an hour and you are back in the forest. The rest is farms.

2 Stews to die for sounds great but if Johnny is flying the plane I suggest hitting the “mile high club” right away. Are they Amazons?

#91 Or Best Offer on 02.05.15 at 9:43 pm

I thought about this blog today when I was paying my auto insurance; the premium went up again, but the vehicle is a year older and worth less….How’s that for deflation?

#92 Posting a realtor ad?? on 02.05.15 at 9:43 pm

Garth, I take it that comment #67 slipped through by accident?

#93 Washed Up Lawyer on 02.05.15 at 9:43 pm

#74 Mark

Noted. Thanks. I was hoping you would weigh in. I’ll take the 5 year fixed and perhaps the promise from the lender that if the rates on a 5 year fixed drop between now and April 1 it will be passed on will be honoured. If not, I will sue the bstrdz.

A bird in the hand and all that. The last thing I should do when it comes to investing is try fancy footwork.

#94 nonplused on 02.05.15 at 9:46 pm

Oh and PS, the unnamed airline sounds like it must be West Jet. To move 30,000 people a month you need a lot of flights. I don’t know what a 737 can move, it’s not 300 it’s less, but even that would mean 100 flights a month or something like 3 a day so let’s say 4 flights a day. Who is going in and out of Fort Mac 4 times a day? Well nobody anymore according to the anecdotal evidence.

#95 604Sam on 02.05.15 at 9:47 pm

“That was the message on Thursday in a new study with these conclusions: only in Greece (currently bankrupt and run by lefties) do households have more debt than in Canada. In fact, we’re now in worse shape than Americans were when their world blew up and house prices dropped 32%, wiping out the middle class.”

Do you have a link to this study?

#96 Centurion on 02.05.15 at 9:48 pm

I know real estate is whacked when I see something like this $585K Oakville crapper sprout up on my Facebook:

http://www.447savillecres.com/

And it was described as having “amazing potential.”

#97 LifeXpert on 02.05.15 at 9:53 pm

I personally know of several couples actively searching for a move up house in the 800 to 1.1 range in Mississauga. Everytime one of them puts in an offer, a higher offer comes in. Well priced homes in that range sell within a day or two. Was actually planning on seeing one of them but never got a chance, sold overnight. This market is clearly insane, but my question is where are all those people getting money from? A few years back you could have had a mansion for that price, today, a very average suburban home. Really hoping for a correction here.

#98 JG on 02.05.15 at 9:57 pm

For the 1st time in 5 years I flew from Toronto to Edmonton and the seats weren’t full. I take the same flight ten times per year. This month it was 18 % empty. There is change.

#99 SWL1976 on 02.05.15 at 10:03 pm

Glad we’re not talking about dogs. Thou I do love them dearly

Lots and lots of empty desks where I am and there’s a very good chance they won’t be counted by stats Can

Construction is still going full blast though as word around here is completion of this next project will put them in the mid 20’s for production cost/barrel

Even without the drop in oil price construction projects here in the great white north were winding down anyways. I predict trying to earn a living in the trades is going to get cut throat and shitty as the recent boom has pushed a lot of unskilled people through who now think making 100k a year complaining in the lunch room is normal. Glad I diversified my skill set

The sad reality is that most of them do not realize that 100k a year on construction is great. Now go and try to pull that off for the next 20 years

The problem with the mortgage calculator that lets someone earning 100k think they can buy a 500k home as it assumes that that said person can make at least 100k for the next 20 years.

Sounds like a prison sentence given the economic storm brewing… No thanks

#100 GTA Observer on 02.05.15 at 10:13 pm

#4 Timbo quoted a banker: “It’s true our debt-to-income ratio is above the current U.S. ratio of 136 per cent, but that just means U.S. households aren’t as indebted as we are now. It doesn’t mean we’ve hit the debt wall that Americans ran into, he said.


“It’s true that the Canadian is sicker than the American, but that just means the American isn’t as sick as the Canadian. It doesn’t mean that the Canadian is going to go to the hospital the way the American did.”

I am going to think about this long and hard on my way to the Mad Hatter’s party.

#101 Inspector Fuzz on 02.05.15 at 10:14 pm

Building Inspector with the government here.
Talked to all my builders, sales are through the roof for this summer. Most new subdivisions are 1/3 sold out before they are even built. My area is slightly outside Toronto.

What does this mean? It means no one is concerned, everyone is greedy right now. That is the sentiment. People are greedy, and not fearful at all. It has been decades of housing price increases, and people are emboldened by it.

The Chinese buyers like Canada, clean air, 1.3 Billion of their peers are stuck back home in a polluted mess, life is good here for those who can afford to get citizenship.

Word from the Chinese community, is they consider Canadian housing a bargain. Also, they are of the belief housing cannot go down in price, only up, so Canada is a safe place to store their wealth (not all legally obtained, yes I’m looking at you Chinese officials…).

Although I have noticed what I call the civil servant economy here. Most of the people buying homes right now are fire fighters, police, nurses, teachers, planners, CRA, etc. So as long as Wynne is on a hiring spree, and interest rates are low, this will continue.

#102 Sebee on 02.05.15 at 10:16 pm

… moist Millennials…

I feel by now this should be one word. Moisennials?

#103 Obvious Truth on 02.05.15 at 10:18 pm

#14

Like garth said. It’s everywhere. The guy fixing the tap owns a slew of them. And he’s shown the bil how to get to the promised land.

It feels like speculation at the extreme. If every average joe borrowed a mil on a promise and put it in stocks I’d be a seller.

#104 palebird on 02.05.15 at 10:18 pm

Poor Trevor. I know who he works for and that airline is a wonderful example of put all your eggs in one basket and act like superstars. Spend like superstars too. Oh well it all comes around in the end 5T. I don’t feel sorry for them at all. As Garth preaches: “diversify”

#105 Show me the data on 02.05.15 at 10:23 pm

I would love to know what the debt ratios look like when you remove GTA and Van. I have a hard time beleiving the rest of the country is as overloading on debt as Greece or the U.S. pre crash.

#106 Brian Ripley on 02.05.15 at 10:26 pm

re “delusional GTA and YVR” Garth.

I have updated the housing charts (January data) now on Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto.

Here is the comparison chart of Vancouver vs Toronto http://www.chpc.biz/compare-toronto–vancouver.html

The spread in SFD prices between the two cities is widening again.

#107 Smoking Man on 02.05.15 at 10:31 pm

#71 amazon girl on 02.05.15 at 9:08 pm
amazon girl to Smoking Man # 38 , so true loving you
more today , as myself 6 years more to retire….
Made easy 5 today could close at 10 but husband emotions cut the day short.one more day of slavery
……..

Just had a vision…
We take one of those empty stores on Lakeshore in long branch. Very close to south side johnny’s.

Smoking Man’s Forex trading school.
Big disclaimer on the wall.

Caution, your instructor is a raging alcoholic, who’s slightly insane, beilives he’s from the planet Nictonite. Thinks he can fly..

He’s a hard core conspiracy therorist. Believes teachers are idiots. Man Made Global warming is a scam. He’s known for lying. Lying alot.

Serve beer and wings, a 90″ TV hooked up to this wizards trading app. For all to see. It’s also a vaper lounge, so e city are allowed.

He’s got the chart up, watched the relative strength, and bolanger bands. Them makes huge bets when the UCC says buy or sell.

But there are those who do, those who can’t, they are the ones that teach.

#108 Julie K. on 02.05.15 at 10:35 pm

My thanks to Confused #16, VYR WTF #37 and KAC #67 for your response to my earlier Q.

However, the comment was simply a gut reaction after reading today’s pathetic blog (which, like Alison #17, I am also now addicted to after only a few week of “use” — dangerous dude this Garth guy).

Guess sarcasm does not translate well. Sorry about that.

BTW, as an “experiment” earlier this week, I posted my NV home for sale on Craigslist just to see what, if any, response it would garner. I was realistic with the asking price (just under a mil which is a deal for North Van these days). Included all the usual foreplay…er…”features”; new legal, secondary suite; cul-de-sac location; greenbelt; and, of course, the coveted granite, SST & hardwood upgrades.

Within a scant 24 hours, I had six peeps clamoring for more info, more pictures and access to view the property ASAP as it was “just what they were looking for”.

One nice lady even said she had her “cash ready” to make a deal having just moved back to 604 ex Australia.

Yikes.

#109 Mark on 02.05.15 at 10:35 pm

“Oh and PS, the unnamed airline sounds like it must be West Jet. To move 30,000 people a month you need a lot of flights. I don’t know what a 737 can move, “

I did the math in a previous post, 3 of Suncor’s 90-seat CRJ-900’s can move 30,000 people a month. The flight schedule is on their website if you care to use Google.

#110 Ollie on 02.05.15 at 10:36 pm

416 is not undone by manufacturing, but by banks layoffs. They are coming…

#111 Ollie on 02.05.15 at 10:38 pm

Funny how the crash begins in the only non-recourse province. That’s where it hurts most, because CMHC would have to get involved quickly.

#112 SWL1976 on 02.05.15 at 10:38 pm

#107 Smoking Man – Sign me up, I need a trip to the big city

#113 Mark on 02.05.15 at 10:38 pm

“I would love to know what the debt ratios look like when you remove GTA and Van. I have a hard time beleiving the rest of the country is as overloading on debt as Greece or the U.S. pre crash.”

I believe its just as bad in the smaller centers as the major cities. Those 3/4 ton 4-wheel drive pickups (which, in practice, almost never leave pavement) are not cheap. Neither is the flotilla of ‘stuff’ that they tend to tow cheap either (quad trailers, “fifth wheel” RV’s, boats of all kinds, Jetskis, dirtbikes, etc., etc.).

#114 Leo Tolstoy on 02.05.15 at 10:38 pm

Canadian households will never de-leverage.

http://www.rcinet.ca/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2013/06/StatisticsCanadaHouseholdcreditincome.gif

The CAD$ will continue lower.

I’m also selling one of my tiny, mortgage-free, 50 year old Toronto bungs this month. Priced at $599k. I predict a feeding frenzy.

#115 Ollie on 02.05.15 at 10:40 pm

Banks do layoffs at a tip of the hat. They don’t think twice about cutting their own leg to flee the trap.

#116 Smudgekin on 02.05.15 at 10:40 pm

What’s the allure of the Danforth? It reminds me of Mimico trying to pull it’s socks up too hard.

40’s plywood with on street parking on too narrow roads.
Occasional pockets of Kingsway like Playter, Chester Hill ot Ingham.

It isn’t really Greek anymore. All the fast food outlets are subpar. Heck there isn’t a clean, modern washroom to be found M4K to J if you don’t want to eat at a fancy restaurant…

Say Garth your spoiled for toilets at the Scotia. At least yours flush properly and have paper towels!

#117 Mark on 02.05.15 at 10:41 pm

” Thanks. I was hoping you would weigh in. I’ll take the 5 year fixed and perhaps the promise from the lender that if the rates on a 5 year fixed drop between now and April 1 it will be passed on will be honoured. If not, I will sue the bstrdz.”

Save your time (and a probable award of costs against you) by not bothering with the ‘suing’ part. Canadian bank pre-‘approval’ letters aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on, and I’m sure you can read the fine print.

#118 NEVER GIVE UP on 02.05.15 at 10:44 pm

Amanda Lang was interviewing the CEO of CMHC today on CBC.
He was asked at one point what he thinks about Privatizing The CMHC.
He was clear that it was not a good idea as the CMHC is a great “public policy tool”.

What else can you expect from a Goldman Sacks trained CEO.

Well we can see that as clear as day as the incumbent government will do what ever it can to win an election with their “public policy tool”.

Aside from dropping interest rates. (whoever says the BOC is independent of Government manipulation is completely naive) .

Watch for more “public policy initiatives”. (read, sellout our children’s future so we can have another term at our 4 year dictatorship.)

#119 Helen on 02.05.15 at 10:45 pm

re Julie K.
“Can anyone recommend a good realtor working in the North Van area of YVR? ”

This realtor in North Van must be good because he thinks he can sell a 1973 house for A MILLION $$ over the assessed value.

http://www.zoocasa.com/en/north-vancouver-bc-real-estate/3093351-237-rondoval-crescent-north-vancouver-bc-v7n2w6-v1102155

#120 Mark on 02.05.15 at 10:51 pm

“Canadian households will never de-leverage.”

Are you kidding? Credit is always cyclical. The more leverage on the way up, the deeper the de-leveraging cycle must necessarily occur on the way down.

#121 Happy Renting on 02.05.15 at 10:51 pm

#72 Freedom First on 02.05.15 at 9:08 pm

I am amused to hear that much-younger, pretty women are so baldly looking to diversify their sources of income and support. I’ve read that you can tell the state of the economy by how good-looking your restaurant server is. If she belongs on a magazine cover, the economy is totally in the crapper.

#122 Ray Skunk on 02.05.15 at 10:51 pm

What happened to XAL today?

A skidmark on an otherwise pristine day at the markets.

#123 Marco on 02.05.15 at 10:53 pm

# 90 604Sam,

Here:

http://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/insights/economic%20studies/debt%20and%20not%20much%20deleveraging/mgi%20debt%20and%20not%20much%20deleveragingin%20brieffebruary%202015.ashx

#124 Rebecca on 02.05.15 at 11:00 pm

I have a relative of the Boomer generation trying to sell her teardown house in Vancouver for nearly $3 million. She signed with the realtor who set the highest asking price, and no action for months. Not an open house, not a single buyer looking. But damned if she’ll drop the price. I’m interested to see how long her greed continues.

#125 Alex Smith on 02.05.15 at 11:02 pm

We took Garth’s advice 2 years ago and sold our Burnaby condo for twice what we paid for it. Now those condos are selling for $20,000 less, and the assessment dropped 10 grand.
Not every Greater Vancouver property is gaining value. Some are already losing.
We built in a cheaper small town where we can own a new home outright, and still have change from the condo sale.
Not sorry we got out. Thanks Garth.

#126 Smoking Man on 02.05.15 at 11:07 pm

#120 Mark on 02.05.15 at 10:51 pm
“Canadian households will never de-leverage.”

Are you kidding? Credit is always cyclical. The more leverage on the way up, the deeper the de-leveraging cycle must necessarily occur on the way down.
…..
Put your calculator away dude.. Grab a coffee and watch the herd at Union station, you probably don’t know what a track 6er is.

If you can see the obvious you will see they line up for the first available machine to swipe that green card. Inspite of the fact there are 4 or 5 swiping machines with in two feet of the first one with no line. But the they form a polite line for beeps on the first one.

I know shit Man… I see the obvious..

#127 Mark on 02.05.15 at 11:09 pm

“What happened to XAL today?

A skidmark on an otherwise pristine day at the markets.

Looks like a random hodge-podge of junk and a few good quality foreign ETFs. Why would you own something like that instead of building a proper balanced portfolio?

#128 sach on 02.05.15 at 11:11 pm

Smoking Man,

You did not give your email address ?

#129 Leo Tolstoy on 02.05.15 at 11:14 pm

Canadian households will never de-leverage. The following chart of household debt is clearly not cyclical.

http://www.rcinet.ca/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2013/06/StatisticsCanadaHouseholdcreditincome.gif

The CAD$ will continue lower.

#130 Washed Up Lawyer on 02.05.15 at 11:15 pm

#107 Smoking Man

Can I offer, on a pro bono basis, a guest lecture on the law relating to the ability of an American casino to enforce or recover a gambling debt in Canada?

Where is the faculty club? I have a Tweed jacket and pipe. My CV is one paragraph long.

#131 Love my Kia on 02.05.15 at 11:23 pm

May be old news by a week, but it wasn’t reported by MSM either. Canadians sued the Bank of Canada and won for allowing private banks to profit of the public debt. Rocco Galati (known for his famous challenge to Supreme Court nominee Nadon fame) is behind this latest challenge that has been blacked out by Canadian press media. Any idea how this will affect us?

http://www.collective-evolution.com/2015/02/05/canadians-sued-the-bank-of-canada-won-mainstream-media-government-blacks-out-story/

Bogus story. Old news. — Garth

#132 Kothar on 02.05.15 at 11:25 pm

50k jobs lost in Canada vs 300k+ jobs gained USA come Friday’s reports.

#133 Smoking Man on 02.05.15 at 11:26 pm

#128 sach on 02.05.15 at 11:11 pm
Smoking Man,

You did not give your email address ?

……

That’s because you haven’t proven to me your a hot female between the ages of 30 to 35..and I can find you on backpage.

Short term rentals.. Fees paid for going away..

#134 Ray Skunk on 02.05.15 at 11:26 pm

Looks like a random hodge-podge of junk and a few good quality foreign ETFs. Why would you own something like that instead of building a proper balanced portfolio?

Heh. It is part of a balanced portfolio. A fee-based, managed one at that. I’m sure it will bounce back – they always do… Just a shocker to see it slapped down 8% in one sitting and wondering if there was a specific reason.

I’m accustomed to a bit of volatility with my other emerging/foreign ETFs but never more than +/- 2% in a session.

#135 Mark on 02.05.15 at 11:27 pm

“Canadian households will never de-leverage. The following chart of household debt is clearly not cyclical.”

Your chart isn’t long-term enough. Go back 100 years and then maybe we can discuss cyclicality of credit properly.

And de-leveraging is profoundly CAD$ supportive for the reasons that have been explained. In essence, deflation. People saving, not borrowing/spending.

#136 Smoking Man on 02.05.15 at 11:28 pm

#130 Washed Up Lawyer on 02.05.15 at 11:15 pm
#107 Smoking Man

Can I offer, on a pro bono basis, a guest lecture on the law relating to the ability of an American casino to enforce or recover a gambling debt in Canada?

Where is the faculty club? I have a Tweed jacket and pipe. My CV is one paragraph long.
…..

Next time I lose, I’ll think about it.. But doesn’t happen that often. It’s an Alien thing…

#137 NEVER GIVE UP on 02.05.15 at 11:29 pm

I thought the 5% cash back mortgages were ended.
Does anyone know when they came back?

I am not surprised to see them anyway. I was sure they would allow all the tricks to come back for the election.

http://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates

#138 Marco on 02.05.15 at 11:32 pm

From that Mckinsey report:

“Encourage innovations in mortgage contracts. More flexible mortgage contracts can avoid foreclosure and the associated social and economic costs. One proposal is a “shared responsibility mortgage,” in which loan payments are reduced when home prices decline below the purchase price and revert when prices improve; in return, when the home is sold, the lender receives a portion of the capital gain.8 A “continuous workout mortgage” would adjust payments automatically in response to triggers such as recession or job loss to enable borrowers to continue making payments and avoid default.9 Or homeowners could be given incentives (or required) to purchase insurance to cover mortgage payments in case of job loss or other developments that inhibit their ability to pay. The benefits of these schemes should be weighed carefully against the costs and risks, but could improve financial system stability.”

How well would these recommendations be taken by our Government and Banking institutions?

#139 Bottoms_Up on 02.05.15 at 11:40 pm

#40 Mark on 02.05.15 at 8:10 pm
————————————————-
LOL not sure what chart you’re looking at but $580k worth of xiu.to purchased in 2009 would only be $760k and not the $1.2 million you quote.

#140 Tony on 02.05.15 at 11:47 pm

DELETED

#141 Mark on 02.05.15 at 11:56 pm

“LOL not sure what chart you’re looking at but $580k worth of xiu.to purchased in 2009 would only be $760k and not the $1.2 million you quote.”

XIU bottomed at ~$12, and today is ~$22. Throw in 6 years of dividends and money has been doubled. However, much more difficult to leverage XIU than housing obviously, so obviously if that place was bought on credit returns may have been greater than buying an amount of XIU on credit.

#142 Mark on 02.06.15 at 12:00 am

“Heh. It is part of a balanced portfolio. A fee-based, managed one at that. I’m sure it will bounce back – they always do… Just a shocker to see it slapped down 8% in one sitting and wondering if there was a specific reason.

I’m accustomed to a bit of volatility with my other emerging/foreign ETFs but never more than +/- 2% in a session.

My apologies, upon looking at the volume/trading data a little bit more carefully, it appears that the issue with that ETF is liquidity. As in, there are so few units outstanding and actually traded that price discovery is very slow and bid-ask spreads enormous.

Seriously, I’d be suspicious of the thought process that went into buying such a small, illiquid fund when much better alternatives exist.

#143 Washed Up Lawyer on 02.06.15 at 12:01 am

#131 Love My Kia

You said:

“Canadians sued the Bank of Canada and won for allowing private banks to profit of the public debt.”
*********************************

My learned friend Garth Turner Q.C.* is right. I have read the decision three times. A non story. A preliminary skirmish about pleadings that cannot pass muster.

Drop it.

(*Qualified Conductor of Harleys with short straight pipes and howling dog choirs.)

#144 Mark on 02.06.15 at 12:14 am

“How well would these recommendations be taken by our Government and Banking institutions?”

Lenders are simply in the business of trying to find appropriate returns. The whole point of fixed income is that it is “fixed”. Equity is a whole different beast, and occupies a different place in the capital structure. If a homeowner wants a risk-sharing arrangement for financing, such would involve the sale of an equity stake in the property to the financier (either directly or synthetically), which would carry a higher implied return. I’m not sure that many borrowers would want to pay the interest rates, the rates of return, that equity would imply. And in any event, such financing costs would definitely suppress housing prices substantially as they would be considerably higher than current rates.

Contemporary mortgage rates are so low because the belief is, in the lending community, that deflation will be upon us, and accepting a return of 2-3%, is better than holding equity which is depreciating and providing a zero or negative total return. And besides, bankers really only care about earning a spread that covers off the risk and their cost of capital. Nothing more, nothing less.

#145 Love my Kia on 02.06.15 at 12:24 am

May be old news by a week, but it wasn’t reported by MSM either. Canadians sued the Bank of Canada and won for allowing private banks to profit of the public debt. Rocco Galati (known for his famous challenge to Supreme Court nominee Nadon fame) is behind this latest challenge that has been blacked out by Canadian press media. Any idea how this will affect us?

http://www.collective-evolution.com/2015/02/05/canadians-sued-the-bank-of-canada-won-mainstream-media-government-blacks-out-story/

Bogus story. Old news. — Garth

This happened on Jan 26th this year so its not that old. What’s old is the case itself started in 2011. A legal ruling in the Supreme Court is the next and last step after this. I found a few other stories on it since my last post and it seems consistent including a video interview with Galati himself last week. My guess is the gov’t will change the rules again and yes, it would once again be a non story.

#146 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 02.06.15 at 12:28 am

RED SKY IN THE MORNING, SAILORS TAKE WARNING…AND VICTORIA

Inspite of Victoria’s heavy rain, and cold elsewhere in our kingdom of falling energy prices, some useful information herewith courtesy of CNBC, this date.

WTI and Brent prices have had a not-too-bad week so far, moving up nicely.

But it is a false dawn to believe that this is anything but a feint, a dead cat bounce or an aberration wrought by HFT, in the oil complex, according to this:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102402892

Fact is no one knows where energy prices are headed.

But given world-class surpluses, even very large crude carriers are now being used as floating oil storage facilities mainly in Asia, something’s gotta give sometime that will return oil prices to their profitable levels for us and the rest.

It is also very sad to see so many layoffs in the Alberta oil patch.

One must also understand that unless some of those folks are rehired soon, their skill levels will decline and eventually companies may find they don’t really need them at all.

Technological advances will allow corporations to get back in the game with far fewer workers.

Always seems to happen like this, these days, doesn’t it?

VICTORIA…

Also enjoyed the Victoria real estate posts #83, and so on.

This lovely city seems to be treading water following a desultry set of municipal elections last November that saw a strange lot being elected to be our betters. Betters they are not, but we voted anyhow!

On February 17 the BC finance minister tables a promised balanced budget. Details won’t be released till then, of course. But a few civil service workers here must be wondering…

Also, real estate doesn’t have that same boisterous quality of years gone by. Must be a buyer’s market with too many sellers still believing in fairy dust.

So, it’s reversion to mean: Victoria, Canada’s only graveyard with a business section!

Pretty but you can’t eat the scenery. Too much granite and tree bark.

#147 CalgaryBoy on 02.06.15 at 12:53 am

In Calgary:

This house dropped from $474,900 to $459,900
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=15152494

This house dropped from $649K to $624,900 to $599K (I think this one’s a desperate sale)
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=15196596&amp;

This house dropped from $674,900 to $649,500
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=15161008

This house dropped from $589,900 to $549,999
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=15259005

Prices are falling and falling FAST in Calgary!

Sales are popping up everywhere! But keep in mind this is NOT the time to buy. A fool will buy in this market because they will only be losing equity. Wait at least 30 months. What good are low interest rates when people are cut from their jobs?!?

Don’t be a greaterfool! ;)

#148 CalgaryBoy on 02.06.15 at 12:59 am

I LOVE the fact that the media is EXPLODING with articles about Calgary’s housing market! Everyday, a few new articles reaching the everyday people. This will all add up, and yes, people should be concerned, people should be afraid to buy a house right now.

Last year, all I heard was how million dollar house sales exceeded the previous month, the previous year. In January 2015, nothing.

I haven’t seen so many flyers from real estate agents since 2009! I sense some desperation?

#149 squidly77 on 02.06.15 at 1:20 am

http://albertabubbleblog.blogspot.ca/2015/02/why-should-i-care.html

#150 liquidity on 02.06.15 at 1:51 am

#40 Mark
====

“She could have taken her $580k at the time and bought the TSX ”

You assume she had $580K cash to buy the house… Probably not. Maybe 5-10% of that, for down payment.

Nobody would lend $580K to invest in TSX or any other exchange on 5-10% down.

Even if they had such margin account, a market swing and margin call would wipe them out in no time at such leverage.

That’s one of the reasons people buy real estate – instead of stocks, funds.

#151 Vamanos Pest on 02.06.15 at 2:22 am

Garth

Can you please post this comment simply as “DELETED”. I want the blog dogs to think I’m badass.

#152 Bast on 02.06.15 at 2:26 am

My very scientific method for gauging the exodus from Calgary: look at rentals available on Rentfaster.ca and Kijiji moving sales. Both metrics are going up, up, up. I thought people might wait until spring to pack up and go, but apparently not. It’s already started in earnest. Would love to know the moving companies or UHaul stats too.

#153 Scully on 02.06.15 at 2:33 am

@81 Vanectdotal
So true. I work in the industry in Raincouver and that’s the majority here too. what some of us are wondering is what the hell the builders/speckers are going to do with all the new build houses sitting empty. Many have been rented out but how long before something gives? I have never seen so much risk.

#154 nonplused on 02.06.15 at 3:04 am

#109 Mark

So 30,000 / 90 = 333 or about 11 flights a day. Where are they coming from Fox Creek? They aren’t coming from Halifax and you don’t do maths so good. For $shit sakes there isn’t enough time in a day to unload and board that many people on three 90 seat airplanes let alone luggage fuel and maintenance. And don’t forget air time. If the 3 planes have to make 11/3 return trips per day (so about 4) the flight time has to be 3 hours maximum including boarding and maintenance. (The planes have 6 hours to fly assuming zero turn around but they have to go 2 directions, so only 3 hours each way no turn around touch and go.) I suppose it’s possible but barely and there should have been crashes. Or planes running out of fuel.

It’s West Jet. Suncor can’t move 30,000 people a month with 3 – 90 seaters not even half that.

#155 young & foolish on 02.06.15 at 3:19 am

“She could have taken her $580k at the time and bought the TSX by way of a simple index fund like XIU. Today she would have over $1.2M, and wouldn’t be freaking out about sitting atop a bloated overpriced asset.”

Ahhh yes, except she probably didn’t have 580K to invest anyway (most of it is likely mortgaged). Most home buyers today don’t have a lot of money, something people seem to forget. Mortgages are cheap, and it’s the easiest way to speculate as well as satisfy a necessity of life (a place to live).

#156 nonplused on 02.06.15 at 3:20 am

Oh and more about Suncor Air. If they had a chance of moving 30,000 people per month with 3 – 90 seaters, the furthest they could be coming out of is Edmonton, and I think that’s too far. But let’s say maybe. Well? Who got them to Edmonton? West Jet.

West Jet can move 30,000 people a month because they have bigger planes and they also have a magic factor Suncor does not: connections. If you can’t go straight to Fort Mac from Halifax you can go through Calgary or Edmonton.

The Suncor little 90 seaters are not flying from Halifax, picking up more people in Calgary, and then continuing to Fort Mac.

Even if Suncor is flying them up from Calgary they got to Calgary on West Jet or Air Canada. And a Suncor pilot wouldn’t refer to his passengers as “lost customers” or to himself as working for an “airline”. Also the lay off numbers don’t make sense, if Air Suncor dropped 30,000 passenger flights a month the layoffs would be 100% and all 3 aircraft grounded.

It’s West Jet.

#157 Lillooet, BC on 02.06.15 at 3:25 am

Oil bounced back up over $51 today with more increases to come.
The world consumes 90 million barrels/day and half of it costs over $40/barrel to produce. Economic theory states that prices will have to rise to meet that demand.
The .80 cent Canadian dollar will help Canadian oil producers as they get 20% more that at par. Also, the massive layoffs will help oil companies lower their costs. There will be short term pain, but in the mid-term, oil companies will do well once the price increase back up to $90. Also, companies like Suncor, Husky and Esso sell refined products retail (gas stations etc) which will help prop up their bottom line.
The .80 cent C$ also makes Canadian real estate 20% cheaper with the exchange rate so foreign buyers will continue to pile on. Also, 300,000 new immigrants to Canada will continue to add pressure to the real estate markets in Toronto and Van who each get 100,000+ newbie Canadians/year. They all gotta live somewhere. Even if they rent, it will drive up demand for houses in those cities.
And no matter how much debt there is or how bad the economy gets, the federal and provincial governments will bend over backwards to bail out over-extended borrowers whether they are corporate or Joe-bag-O-donuts. So let the good times roll!

And hey, Garth, why the obsession with dogs?

#158 young & foolish on 02.06.15 at 3:27 am

World wide private and public debt is way up … by non payable trillions and the global economy is slowing. I sense a tectonic shift coming.

Somebody will have to clear the balance sheet … either the debtors or the lenders. Debt jubilee time coming?
Watch the Croats and the Greeks.

#159 Andrew Woburn on 02.06.15 at 4:33 am

#101 Inspector Fuzz on 02.05.15 at 10:14 pm
Building Inspector with the government here….

The Chinese buyers like Canada, clean air, 1.3 Billion of their peers are stuck back home in a polluted mess, life is good here for those who can afford to get citizenship.

Word from the Chinese community, is they consider Canadian housing a bargain. Also, they are of the belief housing cannot go down in price, only up, so Canada is a safe place to store their wealth…
===========

I have read that buyers of residential real estate in Mainland China typically make down payments of around 50%. If this is true, Chinese buyers may not grasp how leveraged and risky are current Canadian real estate values.

#160 Rick on 02.06.15 at 4:35 am

http://realestatetalks.com/

Julie K

Post your question on the above.

#161 Karma on 02.06.15 at 4:39 am

#33 mortgagebrokeron on 02.05.15 at 8:01 pm
“Yah I live in Ontario, and let me agree with Garth. A lot of people are over their head in debt.”

I was on the blood-danforth subway a couple days ago. In the carriage I was in, every advert placement (banners up top and eye level ones) were for a “Debt reduction advisor/bankruptcy advisor” service. On the radio, it appears as those credit consolidation companies are buying up copious amounts of adverts.

Does anyone else notice a pick up in these advertisements? It doesn’t seem healthy.

#162 Karma on 02.06.15 at 4:40 am

#31 Fatima Llewellyn on 02.05.15 at 7:59 pm
“I implore you all to read the full McKinsey report to which Garth refers:”

Thx for sharing

#163 Oil Is Sticky on 02.06.15 at 5:28 am

#46 My House is my Friend on 02.05.15 at 8:19 pm
I thought the US economy was turning around?

IBM is laying off 100,000 workers

http://spectrum.ieee.org/view-from-the-valley/at-work/tech-careers/massive-worldwide-layoff-underway-at-ibm

And Apple just made more money than God has. — Garth

——–

Yes but too bad the jobs are all in China. Which is why IFruit is rolling in it. I doubt if the average “iphone salesperson” is earning enough salary to buy a house.

#164 Jack B Nimble on 02.06.15 at 6:49 am

The upside silver lining to all this gloom and doom about panic and layoffs is that the oil stocks have boomed in the past two weeks…and for us savvy investors some of us have made a bundle.

In fact my petroleum related portfolio has surpassed old all time highs that were set fall of last year. The companies involved are pumping record output and lowering costs by throwing bodies under the bus wholesale.

Great news for us sun drenched old farts smart enough to know that real estate has no value except as a place to sleep once in a while, when we aren’t down south playing golf or in some tropical spot.

100% equity baby…big beta…big balls…big profit…..a drunken stock pickers dream.

#165 Leo Tolstoy on 02.06.15 at 6:59 am

No data exists to support theory that household debt is cyclical.

#166 Leo Tolstoy on 02.06.15 at 7:01 am

No data exists to support theory that household debt is cyclical.

Ratios have never been higher.

This is why the CAD$ goes down.

#167 I'm stupid on 02.06.15 at 8:09 am

How ridiculous is the target bankruptcy sale? I couldn’t resist. Yesterday was my first time in a target. It’s no wonder they went bankrupt. There were no deals yesterday. I saw a 55″ TV discounded 10% best buy was selling the same TV cheaper. Am I to believe the risk of taking it home and the TV not working is worth a $90 discount? I saw golf balls with a 10% discount, I don’t know if they noticed but it’s February, they should be giving them away. What a joke!

#168 w-hat on 02.06.15 at 8:17 am

#134 – XAL traded a couple of bucks down just before close (something strange happened, someone goofed on a sell), but ended up closing at $28.76, down only .03 cents. Most of the finance sites didn’t report the close properly for some reason, but you can check the iShares site and my Broker is also showing the $28.76 price.

#169 Ralph Cramdown on 02.06.15 at 8:32 am

#134 Ray Skunk — “Just a shocker to see it slapped down 8% in one sitting and wondering if there was a specific reason.”

Now you know what happens when some chump puts in an odd lot market sell order for a very thinly traded issue. Obviously there were fewer than two and maybe zero of those accursed high frequency traders making a market in that stock.

Somewhat more detail here:
http://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=XAL

Limit orders… they’re not just for breakfast anymore.

#170 Ralph Cramdown on 02.06.15 at 8:47 am

#145 Love my Kia — “May be old news by a week, but it wasn’t reported by MSM either. Canadians sued the Bank of Canada and won for allowing private banks to profit of the public debt.”

Disparage the “MSM” all you want, but when it deigns to report on a court case, the audience isn’t left in doubt as to the question, the decision and the ramifications.

#171 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 02.06.15 at 9:00 am

You are not alone.

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/05/the-economist-realtors-love-to-hate-david-madani-stands-by-2011-prediction-of-canadian-housing-day-of-reckoning/

#172 Ollie on 02.06.15 at 9:19 am

#65 Washed Up Lawyer on 02.05.15 at 8:54 pm
Re: Inverted mortgage rates curve

Very interesting information. IMHO this indeed shows expectation of low rates ahead. But we have to keep it in perspective and not think of the rates as absolute. In periods of deflation even a zero rate costs you money since while the time passes and you have to repay the initial amount you find yourself needing to repay more and more value in terms of work-time, to say it like this. Look at Japan. They already have 20 years of deflation and witnessed a lot of inverted yield curve. Do they have a sizzling mortgage market? Hell no. They invented the multi-generational mortgage. You and your grandchildren sign on it… so funny.

So, in nominal terms we will possibly see reduced rates ahead. In terms of ability to service the loan, increased effort.

#173 Victor V on 02.06.15 at 9:26 am

TSX set to open higher ahead of employment data

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/tsx-set-open-higher-ahead-122821715.html

#174 realtors in a Panic on 02.06.15 at 9:28 am

How many realtors are on here with the tales of sales and immigrants and Chinese all willing to buy grossly overvalued RE? There is no evidence of such but that doesn’t stop shyster high school drop out realtors to spreading their FUD. The market doing so well that they spend countless hours here. Lol

#175 cramar on 02.06.15 at 9:31 am

I was shocked at Amanda Lang’s interview on the CBC late news about Canadian debt levels. She said nothing about us being second to Greece…nothing! She spun it as a world-wide debt problem with Canada no worse than anyone else. It’s concerning, but all humans are in this together she implied, so not such a big deal.

#176 Ollie on 02.06.15 at 9:32 am

Haha… look at the freaking liars. 35000 jobs created…

#177 kothar on 02.06.15 at 9:33 am

Ooh well me wrong …no better than an economist prediction.

35K positive canadian jobs and 257k is a jobs

#178 Ollie on 02.06.15 at 9:33 am

…35k jobs created AND 7.7% increase in bulding permits… USD/CAD doesn’t believe this lie.

#179 fancy_pants on 02.06.15 at 9:35 am

it’s all about devaluing your dollar to stay competitive.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/dont-be-fooled-by-canadian-dollars-recent-rally-im-happy-to-be-a-strategic-bear/article22828688/

Kinda like cut off your leg to save your foot??? Something tells me this whole global economy mess is not going to end well

#180 cramar on 02.06.15 at 9:46 am

#167 I’m stupid on 02.06.15 at 8:09 am
How ridiculous is the target bankruptcy sale? I couldn’t resist. Yesterday was my first time in a target. It’s no wonder they went bankrupt. There were no deals yesterday. I saw a 55″ TV discounded 10% best buy was selling the same TV cheaper. Am I to believe the risk of taking it home and the TV not working is worth a $90 discount? I saw golf balls with a 10% discount, I don’t know if they noticed but it’s February, they should be giving them away. What a joke!

———-

I don’t know why so many are bent out of shape at the Target liquidation sales. They are doing exactly what Zellers did here a couple of years ago. The sale lasts many weeks. The first week the discounts are only 10%, the next 20%, etc. By the last week, the discounts are 80%, but the store is empty. They play on your greed and fear. Should you buy at 40% when stock is almost gone, or wait for 50% knowing that someone might buy the last item at 40%? As the liquidation expert said on TV about Target, if you want size 54 pants or 16 shoes, you can wait until the sale is max. But normal sizes will be gone long before then.

#181 Mike in Toronto on 02.06.15 at 9:52 am

#141 Mark

So you’re saying that if you held all your assets in cash in 2009, then magically snagged the index when it bottomed, and held it to today, you would have doubled your money?

You could have also made 40% return buying and selling COS in the past couple weeks.

But you know what would have made more money? If you played last week’s lottery numbers last week, you’d have made a spectacular return.

#182 BillyBob on 02.06.15 at 10:29 am

@nonplused. It’s not WestJet. They have had no layoffs, they’re still hiring, mostly for their budget airline Encore. A bit of hiring for the “mainline” as well, on the 737. I can assure you that WestJet laying off 20% of their operational staff would make headlines. Big, big ones.

Apparently “Trevor” didn’t want the airline identified, I don’t know why, because it’s not really a secret that certain niche carriers are facing reductions.

But I’ll give you a hint – the airline has already been identified in the comments. Have a look at comment #104 and maybe you’ll figure it out. Or not.

BB – also a pile-it. (I just don’t like taxes so had to leave the GWN).

#183 BillyBob on 02.06.15 at 10:31 am

You are right about one thing, it’s not Suncor either. But that was Mark’s theory, who thinks that CAD will make a huge resurgence soon, so….well.

#184 Mark on 02.06.15 at 10:34 am

“Oh and more about Suncor Air. If they had a chance of moving 30,000 people per month with 3 – 90 seaters, the furthest they could be coming out of is Edmonton,”

No, they run out of Calgary too. Primarily Calgary. As I said, go look at the Suncor website. Its easily find-able with Google, as is their aircraft fleet (4 CRJ’s).

#185 TRT on 02.06.15 at 10:39 am

Gain of 30,000 Jobs!!!

The only reason that the date was dropped was to lower the loonie. No impending correction in housing coming.

We will lower more and inflate our way out.

#186 honeybooboo on 02.06.15 at 10:59 am

#33 mortgagebrokeron on 02.05.15 at 8:01 pm

Dear Renters, just because your family / friends say they own their house they are really telling you a fib.

Yet people call themselves a homeowner…. Yah not quite.

This is a large percent of the population…. At least the ones I deal with
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Hi mortgage broker Ron.
Thanks for my morning chuckle :)
You mention that most of the people you deal with have a mortgage. What a very interesting stat!
But seeing you are a mortgage broker I would assume most people you are dealing with need a mortgage…….hmmm.

#187 BillyBob on 02.06.15 at 11:03 am

Sorry Mark, I know you like to project an air of knowledgeability of all things, but as the Freakanomics guys like to say: being confident isn’t the same thing as being right.

It’s not Suncor. It’s an airline with a noble callsign, “Empress”, that they resurrected from when CP Air had it. This airline has had to let about a dozen pilots and about 30 flight attendants go due to the slowdown in the oil patch. About 20% of their front-line workers. They do not operate RJ’s and they certainly were moving the numbers he described.

Please stop posting half-baked theories with a couple of nuggets of irrelevant data in them, as truth.

#188 honeybooboo on 02.06.15 at 11:10 am

#53 Smoking Man on 02.05.15 at 8:30 pm
And Apple just made more money than God has. — Garth

So true, and my kid, don’t think he has a future in Forex.. He just signed up for boot camp, iOS, going to learn how to build apple apps..

Then I will help him convert some off my killer desktop apps, to Apple apps.

Then watch him become a zillionaire over night, I will take a small cut..
+++++++++++++++++++
youre kid has tried forex for a couple of weaks and know he is off to try something ells.
short attension span. ADHD?

#189 NoName on 02.06.15 at 11:10 am

@#158 young & foolish

I would not worry much about Croatia and Greece, they are to far and to small, Croatia gdp is around 60B and Greece is around 240B. what is scary about them is that 70% of Croatias GDP comes from the service industry, and its an about same number or bit bigger in Greece. Croatia paying debt to 6k of their poorest is bit missleading, actually the real story is that companies that are forgiving debt to those 6000 of poor people are getting some form of tax cut or tax brake.
news about Croatia and Greece are just noise, kind of like distraction news to mask real problem, 70%of gdp comes from service industry is the problem, not mass bankruptcies and Greeks will do just fine they will work out some deal.

Lets worry about Canada
25-30 percent of Canada gdp comes from some form of manufacturing, and rest (70-ish) comes from some form of service industry.
http://www.investorsfriend.com/Canadi27.gif

#190 Yyc not retured on 02.06.15 at 11:15 am

Just got my tax guide in the mail… I had no idea that the new home buyers RRSP limit was increased?! 25000 per person now allowed to be taken from retirement. Not a good plan.

#191 NoName on 02.06.15 at 11:15 am

@#145 Love my Kia

http://youtu.be/qexo0eI3eE4

#192 FREEZE IN THE DARK on 02.06.15 at 11:18 am

“It’s too late for Alberta.”
————————
Garth and many of the commenters here are so quick and desirous to write off Alberta and to see it’s fall. No wonder there’s a deep seated resentment between Western Canadians and Central Canadians.

“The job numbers Friday gave a hint that Alberta’s economy was weathering the slowdown better than we thought, as the province still managed to add 14,000 jobs.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/job-figures-show-oil-price-drop-hasn-t-sunk-employment-1.2946449

#193 Daisy Mae on 02.06.15 at 11:28 am

#82 Marco: “The thing I find odd is that this is a Federal Election Year and there does not seem to be any discussion on the state of our collective finances…”

***********************

“It has been very quiet out there. No party probably wants to touch this with a ten foot pull at the moment….”

************************

Yes. Very quiet. We do notice!

#194 Mike T, on 02.06.15 at 11:34 am

‘It’s based on a survey of about 56,000 households across the country. How accurately those households reflect the country as a whole in any given month is an open question.

StatsCan bluntly admits the problem, putting it this way on its website: “While the published estimate is the best available indicator of the real value, changes in the level of any estimates between two months can be the result of a true change or sampling variability.”’

http://blogs.wsj.com/canadarealtime/2013/04/05/canada-jobs-report-now-you-see-big-job-gains-now-you-dont/

looks like they forgot to phone folks in Alberta this month

#195 Unicorn believers on 02.06.15 at 11:37 am

This probably explains a a lot…

http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/one-in-five-albertans-say-vaccines-can-cause-autism

#196 Daisy Mae on 02.06.15 at 11:37 am

#91 Or Best Offer: “I thought about this blog today when I was paying my auto insurance; the premium went up again, but the vehicle is a year older and worth less….How’s that for deflation?”

*****************

ICBC has a monopoly.

#197 Cici on 02.06.15 at 11:45 am

Just in from the Wall Street Journal:

CMHC Expects Housing Activity to Moderate over Next Two Years

http://www.wsj.com/articles/canada-expects-housing-activity-to-moderate-over-next-two-years-1423235900

#198 Paul on 02.06.15 at 11:47 am

#174 realtors in a Panic on 02.06.15 at 9:28 am

How many realtors are on here with the tales of sales and immigrants and Chinese all willing to buy grossly overvalued RE? There is no evidence of such but that doesn’t stop shyster high school drop out realtors to spreading their FUD. The market doing so well that they spend countless hours here. Lo
———————————————————-
Oh they just want to read your words of wisdom.
Are you on your 15 minuet coffee break.

#199 Can I sell you a unicorn on 02.06.15 at 11:48 am

They love unicorns in Ontario too…..

http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/02/06/despite-lack-of-evidence-20-of-ontarians-believe-some-vaccines-cause-autism-new-poll/

#200 Bottoms_Up on 02.06.15 at 11:48 am

#192 Daisy Mae on 02.06.15 at 11:37 am
——————————————-
Ultimately auto insurance policies are back-end loaded. Yearly premiums are roughly 5% of the price of a new vehicle, and as the vehicle ages, the yearly premiums can reach as high as 100% of the value of the older vehicle.

#201 Millenial house buying on 02.06.15 at 11:51 am

How to buy a house using excel !!!

http://www.montrealgazette.com/Life/Homes/Home+ownership+reach+millenials/10773869/story.html

#202 Bottoms_Up on 02.06.15 at 11:52 am

#195 Unicorn believers on 02.06.15 at 11:37 am
————————————————–
It’s amazing what can happened based on one false (criminal) study, followed by a failure of the public health system to communicate the message about the safety and vast benefit to society of vaccines.

From your link:

“A study published in the late 1990s suggested the measles vaccine was linked to autism, but the author, Dr. Andrew Wakefield, was found to have falsified data to advance his claims. Wakefield lost his medical licence and the British journal that published the study, the Lancet, retracted it.”

#203 miketheengineer on 02.06.15 at 11:56 am

Garth et al:

People are delusional:

“listed her 102-year-old house on a corner lot in Mount Royal for $1.4-million”

You have put up the average wages for the average “joe”. What can he afford? See “joe average” can’t afford to purchase this…unless he married another “mary avearge” and can get financing. And guess what, everyone is “tapped out”.

The run up of home prices, has led to people becoming “delusional” with the evaluations of their properties.

Everytime, I see a home that I like, I look at my wage and say to myself…I should have become a dentist.

I wish Ms. Mackenzie “good luck” and that she finds the right buyer at the right time. Anything above 500k is going to get tougher and tougher to sell.

#204 Ice cream matters... on 02.06.15 at 12:10 pm

To assist clients in determining where they’ll live in their later years, Mr. Coleman draws on insight he gained from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology AgeLab, a research centre based within MIT’s School of Engineering.

One of two Canadian financial advisers invited to visit the lab, Mr. Coleman incorporates into planning three key retirement-related questions: Who will change your light bulbs? Who will you have lunch with? And how will you go to get ice cream?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/retirement-rrsps/when-holding-on-to-the-home-makes-sense/article22780549/

#205 Mike S on 02.06.15 at 12:11 pm

StatCan has spoken. Everything is great with jobs

Per capita, we created more jobs than the US did!
And this is during a major slowdown in oil!
Also per CBC, Alberta “good enough to maintain its position as the fastest growing province”

Imagine what we would do if oil appreciate???
Jobs per month would be in the hundred thousands … crazy

Heard Harper on the radio this morning … These economic action plan billboards sure create ton of jobs. I admit it, I was a skeptic at first, but no more

Only questions is why Poloz needed to decrease the interest rate, and why is Joe Oliver so affraid to come up with the budget?

#206 Ed on 02.06.15 at 12:18 pm

RE Pumpers’ amusing & emotional responses to an article on housing’s decline:

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/05/the-economist-realtors-love-to-hate-david-madani-stands-by-2011-prediction-of-canadian-housing-day-of-reckoning/

#207 theAwakenedOne on 02.06.15 at 12:36 pm

Re: #102 – Sebee:
” … moist Millennials…
I feel by now this should be one word. Moisennials? ”
————-

I agree: but somehow “Moisennials” sounds too French… I bet they are just as moist as Canadians, but let’s give ’em a break:

How about: MoisTennials – with a ” T ”

Read this fast enough, there’s a connotation of Moist Genitals… that correlates with the “Moist Virgins” term that Sir Gartho has coined & absolutely loves using in every opportunity avail. :O)

#208 Mark on 02.06.15 at 12:41 pm

“It’s not Suncor. It’s an airline with a noble callsign, “Empress”, that they resurrected from when CP Air had it. This airline has had to let about a dozen pilots and about 30 flight attendants go due to the slowdown in the oil patch. About 20% of their front-line workers. They do not operate RJ’s and they certainly were moving the numbers he described.”

Look, I didn’t say that it was Suncor. I only said, in my previous statements, that Suncor certainly operated an airline which met the criteria. Of course there are many operators in Canada. The suggestion up-thread was that it was WestJet (and could “only” be WestJet) which was completely irrefuted by various posters, as there are obviously a number of possibilities.

Not sure what you’re talking about ‘freakonomics’. Sounds like a veiled insult more than anything. Which is truly unfortunate.

#209 Toronto_CA on 02.06.15 at 12:41 pm

Did you blog dogs see the revised November US job numbers? Yowza. “Revised November figures show 423,000 jobs created”

Well, Canada did allegedly gain 50,000 part-time jobs last month (offset by full time job losses)..until we get a revised figure that is totally different. Anytime I see “surprise” job figures from StatsCan I remain a skeptic.

#210 Nemesis on 02.06.15 at 12:42 pm

#ATaleOfTwoEconomies,Or…

#”IBuyThree”…

[NYT] – The Lure of the Gold Coast: Wealthy Chinese Buyers Head to New York’s Suburbs

…”Last year, Ms. Lo sold a five-bedroom house on Long Island to a family from China. As soon as the deal closed, the new owners handed Ms. Lo the key and asked her to keep an eye on the place.

“They told me they were returning to China and would not be back for two years,” said Ms. Lo, incredulously. “I said, ‘But what about the house and upkeep on the garden?’ The wife suggested I pour cement over the grass, maybe turn it into a basketball court. I tried to explain this isn’t how things are done on Long Island.”…

http://nyti.ms/1ELFol6

#XanaxNation…

[LAT] – Americans are still stressed out, mainly over money, annual report finds

…”Stress is plentiful in the United States, and stress over money, which is anything but plentiful for many American families, is in overflowing supply, says a new survey. More than 1 in 4 Americans report they feel stressed over money most or all of the time, and most say their stress over money has either remained about the same as last year (59%) or gotten worse (29%).”…

http://www.latimes.com/science/la-sci-sn-stress-report-money-inequality-20150205-story.html

#LackingAMerchantNavy…. #AspirantCanadianMariners… #MakeDoWithLess…

[Xinhua] – BCIT students join “Float Your Boat” competition in Canada

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/photo/2015-02/06/c_133975440_2.htm

#211 Mark on 02.06.15 at 12:46 pm

“No data exists to support theory that household debt is cyclical.”

Plenty of data exists. And its just common sense. The cycles are very long, which is why you can’t see it from a relatively short-term chart. Only once in a person’s lifetime do they see the whole cycle, and many people will live an entire lifetime and never see both extremities.

Here’s a simple Australian example:

http://keenomics.s3.amazonaws.com/debtdeflation_media/2008/09/IMG0055_4990531.PNG

Note the cyclicality.

#212 Jeff on 02.06.15 at 12:54 pm

Garth, I love your blob, this is a mix of cleverness, humor and funny pics :)

#213 Mike S on 02.06.15 at 12:58 pm

Another day, another retailer closes shops

I guess dropping the dollar when the consumer debt is all time high, is not a good idea …

Glad we have all these employed part timers around Alberta, they really save the day!

#214 Bob on 02.06.15 at 1:01 pm

@BillyBob #184 Your information is dated….Those numbers were so last month!

#215 Mike S on 02.06.15 at 1:07 pm

“My very scientific method for gauging the exodus from Calgary: look at rentals available on Rentfaster.ca and Kijiji moving sales. Both metrics are going up, up, up. I thought people might wait until spring to pack up and go, but apparently not. It’s already started in earnest. Would love to know the moving companies or UHaul stats too.”

I see, probably lot’s of hiring for the moving companies around Alberta these days. This will explain all the part time job gains …

#216 Pre-Retiree on 02.06.15 at 1:09 pm

To #1 Meanwhile in France:
Alright. I am booking my flight to YYC.
Who wants to house sit in the south of France?
____________________

Come on, now. Don’ be cruel. :)

#217 Banks are cutting back on 02.06.15 at 1:16 pm

Ref post #75 – not a greater fool

My recent experience leads me to believe you may well be right. As a consultant, I thought I had a lock on two projects (one for TD and the other for BMO) both based on regulatory compliance and financial models. Initial discussions took place about three weeks ago, very favourable impressions all round, and since then, nothing.

And of course if you stand on King Street at Bay looking south, you will see that the poor, starving bankers who work for CIBC have been growing cabbages in the flower boxes for the last few months – oh the humanity!

#218 Mike S on 02.06.15 at 1:32 pm

Mark

10 yr bond spreads (US – Canada) are growing today 0.6% vs 0.3%-0.4% couple of days ago

Say the spread grows big enough, say even 1-1.5%
Why would Canadian investors not invest into the US bonds (CAD hedged) to get the extra yield?

#219 Julia on 02.06.15 at 1:34 pm

Gorgeous dobie

#220 Sell the Humvees recently bought on 02.06.15 at 1:35 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/oil-rallies-as-bullish-signals-promise-second-weekly-gain/article22828477/

#221 TnT on 02.06.15 at 1:35 pm

#40 Mark on 02.05.15 at 8:10 pm

She could have taken her $580k at the time and bought the TSX by way of a simple index fund like XIU.

********

You really think she had $580k cash to put in XIU?

I love how goal posts are constantly moved to score argument points regarding Real Estate.

#222 Unicorn believer herds on 02.06.15 at 1:53 pm

When this level of idiocy can propagate though society…. well well, and we wonder why massive bubbles get created.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/why-more-us-parents-are-refusing-to-have-their-children-vaccinated/article22789241/

#223 Victor V on 02.06.15 at 2:02 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/06/world-cant-rely-on-u-s-to-carry-economy-forever-warns-finance-minister-joe-oliver/

WHITBY, Ont — The United States is carrying the world economy at the moment but that is not sustainable, and other major nations must shoulder more of the load, Canadian Finance Minister Joe Oliver said on Friday.

Mr. Oliver said in a speech that the world economy is off to a rough start in 2015 and that “kick-starting global growth will be front and center” at a Group of 20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank chiefs in Turkey next week.

“Though America is carrying the world economy at the moment, that is simply not sustainable. We need key pillars of global growth to reassert themselves,” Mr. Oliver told a meeting of mayors from the Toronto region.

#224 Victor V on 02.06.15 at 2:06 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/06/parasuco-retail-to-close-its-seven-stores-files-for-bankruptcy/

MONTREAL — Parasuco Retail Inc. has filed for bankruptcy and will close all seven stores in Canada.

The Montreal-based denim retailer says it’s shuttering the stores immediately but customers can continue to purchase merchandise through its website.

Most of the stores are in Quebec and one is in Mississauga, Ont. The closures will result in 80 layoffs.

#225 Russ L on 02.06.15 at 2:07 pm

Hey Mr. FREEZE #192

You guys have friends on the Island here. Even if we think you’re the C part of count, ry & western. :)

From my perspective, iVancouver Island, most of Canada is beyond Hope. I even say Rough Rider fans are from “back East”.

#226 Panhead on 02.06.15 at 2:08 pm

#153 Scully on 02.06.15 at 2:33 am
@81 Vanectdotal
what some of us are wondering is what the hell the builders/speckers are going to do with all the new build houses sitting empty.

———————————————————

Sold my Pa’s house for him a year ago (bidding war) in East Van and instantly the house was torn down. Up went the new house with lane house on a 33 ft. lot. On a busy street. Today it sit’s 3/4 finished. The neighbours are pissed as it is a real eye sore. Mud everywhere. Don’t know what happened but somebody’s not having a good day. My Pa is though …

#227 bdy sktrn on 02.06.15 at 2:18 pm

RBC negative rates on GIC being sold today.
Why would anyone buy to be guaranteed a loss?
Why are these being sold?
Seems messed up.

Interest Paid at Maturity
For Investments of
$5,000
to
$99,999.99 $100,000
to
$249,999.99 $250,000
to
$999,999.99 $1,000,000
to
$4,999,999.99+
[%] [%] [%] [%]
1 to 29 days n/a(1) -0.200 -0.200 -0.200

#228 Don on 02.06.15 at 2:21 pm

#175 cramar on 02.06.15 at 9:31 am

I was shocked at Amanda Lang’s interview on the CBC late news about Canadian debt levels. She said nothing about us being second to Greece…nothing! She spun it as a world-wide debt problem with Canada no worse than anyone else. It’s concerning, but all humans are in this together she implied, so not such a big deal

********************
Forgive me…but wasn’t Amanda Lang an actress…seems to me she is still one. Some of the newscasters in BC also went to acting school and then did the weather and then bam a co-anchor job.

Yikes –

#229 april on 02.06.15 at 2:27 pm

#197- CMHC is made up of realtors, is it not?

#230 Who is misleading us? on 02.06.15 at 2:28 pm

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/02/06/unemployment-canada_n_6631282.html

“Don’t Believe The Headlines: Canada’s Latest Job Numbers Don’t Look Good”

“… net increase in jobs was accounted for by an increase in “self-employed” individuals, of 41,000. Many economists are suspicious of this category, because “self-employed” does not equal “making money.” It could be that more than 40,000 Canadians found their entrepreneurial spirit last month and launched their own startups, but it’s just as likely many are putting a brave face on their unemployment.”

#231 Edward on 02.06.15 at 2:33 pm

Unemployment rates of Canadian Cities:

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/QuickList+Unemployment+rates+selected+Canadian+cities+January/10792911/story.html

#232 Rational Optimist on 02.06.15 at 2:38 pm

Dobermans are wonderful dogs, but I can’t stand the practice of cropping their ears to make them look more frightening.

#233 Feng Shui on the brain on 02.06.15 at 2:45 pm

Guess they got priced out of Van…

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/08/realestate/wealthy-chinese-buyers-head-to-new-yorks-suburbs.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=mini-moth&region=top-stories-below&WT.nav=top-stories-below&_r=0

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/25/realestate/25feng.html

#234 Don on 02.06.15 at 3:02 pm

#185 TRT on 02.06.15 at 10:39 am

Gain of 30,000 Jobs!!!

The only reason that the date was dropped was to lower the loonie. No impending correction in housing coming.

We will lower more and inflate our way out

*****************************

Never ceases to amaze me…that after the largest economy in the world went through a significant deflation in terms of housing…people actually think we can kick the can down the road indefinitely. In addition, all these comparison to Japan…an ISLAND nation where land is truly limited, same with Great Britain hence the generational morgages. But Canada really…

All it takes is for one fly in fly out in your neighborhood to run into financial difficultly to start the ball rolling in terms of lower house prices. That’s it! And Guess what a fair share of the big bucks in the oil patch were made by the 20 and 30 year olds, who did not save one penny even though they had more than enough money to.

It also amazes me that people cherry pick bits and pieces of information to back up their arguments but never look at the whole picture, local and world wide.

It only takes ONE dead canary to warn you of impending danger in the coal mine.

Garth – I have been here from the beginning and if you weren’t accepted as an Honorable Politician you sure as hell are an Honorable Human being. The service you offer and this collaborative blog you are dedicated to, is one of the best things that has happened to rudderless Canada. You have brought together so many like minded people, if I were a current politician I would take note. The next step is people getting very very mad, even if it is their own fault they have to take it out on someone.

I choose to rent in this market, my landlord a former realtor is trying hard to keep me in place (Victoria, BC). I will buy land for productive reasons soon enough, but not until the eagle lands. I am patient! At least I am not on the hook to repair a poorly built new house or an old one with asbestos wiring.

My friend who’s wife is a realtor (sorry was a realtor – who sold mostly to her family) recently bought a house and her husband just lost his job. I tried to warn them…but eh she knows everything (you know being in your late late 20’s). They were previously renting a house for $900 dollars. Can’t really blame them for not living through the 80’s but you can for not doing their due diligence and researching.

SM does have a point, with the education system at hand today – even at the University level…I used to argue with my ivory tower profs…that only hurts their EGOS and get you a lower grade. Things change…people don’t.

The main question is why haven’t realtors been regulated yet?

#235 realtors taking down canada one lie and sale at a time on 02.06.15 at 3:06 pm

Congratulations realtors your lies and FUD have caused another company to go bankrupt. Good job scumbags

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/parasuco-retail-closes-stores-lays-off-half-its-staff-files-for-bankruptcy-1.2947711

#236 Don on 02.06.15 at 3:18 pm

#192 FREEZE IN THE DARK on 02.06.15 at 11:18 am

“It’s too late for Alberta.”
————————
Garth and many of the commenters here are so quick and desirous to write off Alberta and to see it’s fall. No wonder there’s a deep seated resentment between Western Canadians and Central Canadians.

“The job numbers Friday gave a hint that Alberta’s economy was weathering the slowdown better than we thought, as the province still managed to add 14,000 jobs.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/job-figures-show-oil-price-drop-hasn-t-sunk-employment-1.2946449
**************************

Really???

Did you realize that the December numbers showing an increase was revised to a negative number a month later. The most recent layoffs have yet to make their way through the system and the contractor layoffs will most likely be ignored to some extent. REMEMBER there is an election coming one should be wary of any mainstream (bought) news.

Geezus people think about it – that is what your brain is for.

#237 Retailer on 02.06.15 at 3:29 pm

Post #235 “Congratulations realtors your lies and FUD have caused another company to go bankrupt. Good job scumbags”

Wrong.

Just got off a conference call. Reason for ‘middle’ class retailers shutting is imports are getting more expensive due to our low loonies… thus stores can’t pass the increased costs…the middle segment is shrinking and won’t be able to afford the items.

Did hear that Nordstrom is setting up 3 locations in Metro Vancouver to start. High end (Nordstrom, Louis Vuitton, etc. ) and Low end (Dollarama, etc.) are set to do well.

Don’t post Drivel here.

#238 FREEZE IN THE DARK on 02.06.15 at 3:32 pm

#236 DoN
———–
GFY Don.

Oh yea, I’m from Toronto.

Ah well, GFY anyways.

#239 BillyBob on 02.06.15 at 3:34 pm

“#214 Bob on 02.06.15 at 1:01 pm
@BillyBob #184 Your information is dated….Those numbers were so last month!”

Quite possible. I only keep minimal tabs on the industry in Canada since I left about ten years ago to fly for Emirates. Canadian aviation is a cancer.

So is 5T laying off more or less than I said? Or should I just bloody well say it, Canadian North?

And Mark, Freakanomics refers to a very successful series of books written by the economist Steven D. Levitt and writer Stephen J. Dubner. Pretty mainstream stuff, try to get out of the basement once in awhile!

freakanomics.com

#240 Don on 02.06.15 at 3:34 pm

#205 Mike S on 02.06.15 at 12:11 pm

StatCan has spoken. Everything is great with jobs

Per capita, we created more jobs than the US did!
And this is during a major slowdown in oil!
Also per CBC, Alberta “good enough to maintain its position as the fastest growing province”

Imagine what we would do if oil appreciate???
Jobs per month would be in the hundred thousands … crazy

Heard Harper on the radio this morning … These economic action plan billboards sure create ton of jobs. I admit it, I was a skeptic at first, but no more

Only questions is why Poloz needed to decrease the interest rate, and why is Joe Oliver so affraid to come up with the budget?
******************

Exactly…well put! It’s what they are not saying that concerns me. They think they are smarter than us sheeple..

#241 Post #235 Don on 02.06.15 at 3:36 pm

Canada is not the USA. We are no the world’s reserve currency. The Government can devalue it as far as they like with no effect on the rest of the world. I also believe we will ‘inflate our way out.’

We are 0.5% of the world population. Insignificant.

#242 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 02.06.15 at 3:45 pm

The same people that pay $1.50 for a liter of “spring” water or $0.75 for a cup of pod coffee believe that vaccinations will lead to who knows what. People are smart, always have been.

http://www.businessinsider.com/crazy-old-health-myths-2014-6?op=1

#243 4 AM Sunrise on 02.06.15 at 3:52 pm

Overheard at the mall last night: “if I only make the minimum payment, will that make my credit, like, go down?”

#244 Don on 02.06.15 at 4:01 pm

#222 Unicorn believer herds on 02.06.15 at 1:53 pm

When this level of idiocy can propagate though society…. well well, and we wonder why massive bubbles get created.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/why-more-us-parents-are-refusing-to-have-their-children-vaccinated/article22789241/

********************************

And people used to think the world was flat. People also used to believe trusted institutions. What’s your point. I know one thing…. vaccines have become a lucrative business.

#245 Musty Basement Dweller on 02.06.15 at 4:11 pm

Aw c’mon guys, seriously? Nice spin. Who makes these job stats up, does the real estate agent cartel do so under contract perhaps?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/job-figures-show-oil-price-drop-hasn-t-sunk-employment-1.2946449

#246 Marco on 02.06.15 at 4:16 pm

@Don

Great posts Don. Real estate is such a religion here it’s like Caveat Emptor doesn’t even apply. They put all their trust in these Realtors and take their spin like the gospel, not to mention all their money. Realtor regulation and mortgage tightening is going to be needed going forward. The employment numbers don’t show the real picture of layoffs and retail shutdowns. Job losses will be a huge issue in the upcoming election.

#247 pinstripe on 02.06.15 at 4:23 pm

the job loss numbers are exaggerated for Alberta. Yes, there were some layoffs around the holiday season but that is typical every year.

The job hiring in FtMac are still ongoing and expected to pick up shortly.

This drop in price in oil was due and gave the corps a chance to get rid of the slackers and send them home. there again, that is typical for all corps and it happens in all boom and bust cycles.

There is no shortage of money made by the trades in FtMac. A cab fare to Edmonton from FtMac is 800 bucks (one way). Cash Upfront.

business as usual around here.

#248 Coraline on 02.06.15 at 4:29 pm

I just have to correct the misperception about the McKinsey debt study. It didn’t say that Canada was second only to Greece in terms of the household debt to income ratio. It said that we were second to Greece in the growth of that ratio since 2007.

Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands have much higher ratios (all over 200) than Canada, and I suspect, sadly, that central banks see this as proof that there’s nothing particularly wrong with extreme household indebtedness.

Interestingly, Greece’s ratio is much lower than Canada’s, and many other nations. The problem in Greece has never really been household debt. They are much more averse to it than we are.

#249 The world goes round on 02.06.15 at 4:33 pm

#244 Don
I know one thing…. vaccines have become a lucrative business.

—————-

And I hope they get rich continuing to save millions of people…. buy their stock!

#250 Porsche on 02.06.15 at 4:33 pm

#242
The same people that pay $1.50 for a liter of “spring” water or $0.75 for a cup of pod coffee believe that vaccinations will lead to who knows what. People are smart, always have been.

…………………………………………………………………..

There’s 160 liters in a barrel of oil…. we pay more for water than oil

#251 Musty Basement Dweller on 02.06.15 at 4:41 pm

It seems the 30ft “tear down” bungalows, or semis get the bulk of media attention in Vancouver and Toronto. (bidding wars, etc)

Granted it is probably a decent LONG term investment to replace one of these tear downs with something with four suites in it or so. But it’s not exactly cheap to do so, that’s why quite a few sit unoccupied or partly finished.

People with the bucks to make this type of investment (or 3 or 4 millenials that go together to do it) can usually wait it out a bit but eventually the coffee is brewed and they are awake and realize that maybe it’s not giving them much of a return, more likely a loss.

I think these types of sales really distort the real picture of real estate in these places. Talk to people in other parts of the burbs and it’s not so rosy.

#252 OMG on 02.06.15 at 4:42 pm

#188 honeybooboo on 02.06.15 at 11:10 am
#53 Smoking Man on 02.05.15 at 8:30 pm
And Apple just made more money than God has. — Garth
So true, and my kid, don’t think he has a future in Forex.. He just signed up for boot camp, iOS, going to learn how to build apple apps..
Then I will help him convert some off my killer desktop apps, to Apple apps.
Then watch him become a zillionaire over night, I will take a small cut..
+++++++++++++++++++
your kid has tried Forex for a couple of weeks and know he is off to try something else.
short attention span. ADHD?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Hell no Smoking Man will teach his kids how to shoot craps at his Las Vegas styled UFO tin foil hat club.
See Smoking Man and his dyslexic family in all their glory!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=beWjk_Q6yZ4

#253 My Fish Is Sick on 02.06.15 at 4:50 pm

Might Be “Canadian North” airlines

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/canadian-north-to-make-staffing-changes-due-to-drop-in-charters-1.2900278

#254 Marco on 02.06.15 at 4:51 pm

I think many Canadians are led to believe that we live in a Socialist society in Canada and the Banks, realtors and Government are there to look out for us at all times, and would never let us bite off more then we can chew. This might be because of our social programs like universal healthcare and pensions. Real estate at any cost is perceived as an entitlement just like pensions and healthcare.
No doubt capitalism reigns supreme in the real estate industry here. Even more so it seems then the U.S who have a little website called Zillow.

#255 Mike S on 02.06.15 at 5:14 pm

“Wrong.

Just got off a conference call. Reason for ‘middle’ class retailers shutting is imports are getting more expensive due to our low loonies… thus stores can’t pass the increased costs…the middle segment is shrinking and won’t be able to afford the items.”

While what you write is true. the reason that the increased cost can’t pass to consumers is that the consumers are in so much debt, they simply can’t pay more

So what we are going to see next is
– lower margin on some items
– higher prices on other items, but diminished sales

DEBT is the primary reason retailers are closing, and it is downward from here

high house prices always squeeze the real economy, slowly but surely. Politicians always try to dance around the problem to keep the party going a little bit longer.

This is why soft landing is impossibility. There was never a soft landing, and there wan’t be one here in Canada

#256 devore on 02.06.15 at 5:17 pm

#91 Or Best Offer

I thought about this blog today when I was paying my auto insurance; the premium went up again, but the vehicle is a year older and worth less….How’s that for deflation?

Duh, your asset has deflated in value, there’s your deflation right there.

#257 Rexx Rock on 02.06.15 at 5:30 pm

The good job numbers is probably coming out of Toronto and Vancouver where higher house prices continue to rise.It only makes sense,highly desirable places to live with high paying jobs.If oil goes up to $65 a barrel then Alberta real estate will be ok.

#258 Godth on 02.06.15 at 5:32 pm

#244 Don on 02.06.15 at 4:01 pm

We’ve had over 30 yrs. to reflect on a certain issue that has been promoted to no end, and yet the science is hardly settled despite the public perception. Science has become a secular religion to some but it’s corrupted by $$$$ and sold by P.R. campaigns to a larger degree than most would care to admit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwgmzbnckII

#259 Bottoms_Up on 02.06.15 at 5:36 pm

#244 Don on 02.06.15 at 4:01 pm
————————————-
So when were vaccines ever not a ‘lucrative business’?

There are lots of professions that make money off the backs of people. That doesn’t mean they don’t provide a quality and very beneficial service to humanity.

#260 Blacksheep on 02.06.15 at 5:38 pm

Don,

You seem a little frustrated with the systemic manipulation occurring. Let me help.

I too, fought like hell here for many years (see G.F. archives: Blacksheep) quoting fundamentals and critical thinking, but you know what, it doesn’t f-ing matter.

I accepted this a while back and re-entreated the RE market. Sure, I was way ahead of Garth’s, “I give up call” but only cause I saw the reality for myself and acted.

Happy Friday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cQgQIMlwWw

#261 Getting old on 02.06.15 at 6:02 pm

As anyone heard of Frank Leo, the GTA real estate agent that will by your home if not sold? I imagine many people in Calgary could sure use his services about now. I surely be amazed if heard him advertising in Calgary I will by your home if I can’t sell it. I’m almost certain when the shite hits the fan in the GTA we won’t have to hear these nagging commercials on the radio anymore. Amen.

#262 Cue the twilight zone on 02.06.15 at 6:10 pm

#258
Hey Godth, it has become a manageable survivable disease due to the amazing advances of science… which is based on understanding the underlying cause .. what unicorn inhabited world did you just drop in from….

#263 Nemesis on 02.06.15 at 6:11 pm

#Today’sCanuckEmploymentStats… #IncludedSmokingMan’s… #NewPartTimeJob…

http://youtu.be/l9dtWCKHz4s

#264 Yogi Bear on 02.06.15 at 6:23 pm

#192 FREEZE IN THE DARK on 02.06.15 at 11:18 am
“It’s too late for Alberta.”
————————
Garth and many of the commenters here are so quick and desirous to write off Alberta and to see it’s fall. No wonder there’s a deep seated resentment between Western Canadians and Central Canadians.

“The job numbers Friday gave a hint that Alberta’s economy was weathering the slowdown better than we thought, as the province still managed to add 14,000 jobs.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/job-figures-show-oil-price-drop-hasn-t-sunk-employment-1.2946449

Cutting contractors doesn’t count as job losses, but the contractor’s revenue dries up nonetheless.

#265 saskatoon on 02.06.15 at 6:23 pm

what qualifies one for new, “self-employed” status?

i have a feeling not much.

just looking at new canadian employment numbers now.

if anyone could enlighten me as to how these “self-employment” numbers come to be…well, that would be mighty nice of ya.

#266 Harbour on 02.06.15 at 6:37 pm

So the Canadian economy is in the toilet, lthe Fed is owering rates to keep a pulse… and CMHC says housing will still rise

#267 Yogi Bear on 02.06.15 at 6:45 pm


if anyone could enlighten me as to how these “self-employment” numbers come to be…well, that would be mighty nice of ya.

You receive a phone call and they request time to ask a few questions. When you are asked if you are employed and answer yes you are then asked what type of employment. If you answer self-employed you are then statistically self-employed and your response (along with 55,000 other responses) are extrapolated and compared to previous period data. The net of that extrapolation gives us the # of self-employed.

#268 Godth on 02.06.15 at 6:52 pm

#262 Cue the twilight zone on 02.06.15 at 6:10 pm

I’m just dropping in from the planet called skeptical, you know, the basis of science. There are still heretics among us. They don’t quite get the Bruno treatment but it’s still not too far from it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IifgAvXU3ts

#269 Don on 02.06.15 at 7:10 pm

#260 Blacksheep on 02.06.15 at 5:38 pm
Don,

You seem a little frustrated with the systemic manipulation occurring. Let me help.

I too, fought like hell here for many years (see G.F. archives: Blacksheep) quoting fundamentals and critical thinking, but you know what, it doesn’t f-ing matter.

I accepted this a while back and re-entreated the RE market. Sure, I was way ahead of Garth’s, “I give up call” but only cause I saw the reality for myself and acted.

Happy Friday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cQgQIMlwWw
.
**************************

I know you have – enjoy reading your posts.

I also just need to vent once in a while at stupid. Mayber if we say it together 3 times it will catch on with the heard. People should try employing the scientific method when they think. oh well you can only save those who are willing to listen. I am off today, went on a rampage.

#270 Don on 02.06.15 at 7:15 pm

#259 Bottoms_Up on 02.06.15 at 5:36 pm
#244 Don on 02.06.15 at 4:01 pm
————————————-
So when were vaccines ever not a ‘lucrative business’?

There are lots of professions that make money off the backs of people. That doesn’t mean they don’t provide a quality and very beneficial service to humanity.
.

****************************************

All i am saying is that ethics have been thrown out the window entirely in the last 20 years – especially the since the early 2000’s. You take your chances and I’ll take mine that’s what freedom is all about.

I will not be the first test subject. People are too eager to believe and not check things out for themselves.

To each their own.

#271 Don on 02.06.15 at 7:16 pm

#258 Godth on 02.06.15 at 5:32 pm
#244 Don on 02.06.15 at 4:01 pm

We’ve had over 30 yrs. to reflect on a certain issue that has been promoted to no end, and yet the science is hardly settled despite the public perception. Science has become a secular religion to some but it’s corrupted by $$$$ and sold by P.R. campaigns to a larger degree than most would care to admit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwgmzbnckII
.
************************
Can’t argue with that!

#272 Don on 02.06.15 at 7:21 pm

#249 The world goes round on 02.06.15 at 4:33 pm
#244 Don
I know one thing…. vaccines have become a lucrative business.

—————-

And I hope they get rich continuing to save millions of people…. buy their stock!
.

**************************

I hope they get rich as well, saving people. But business can also go to such extremes as well in the name of profit. Just saying!

To each their own – I don’t blindly except anything. That is what my brain is for.

Things can corrupt over time.

#273 Don on 02.06.15 at 7:31 pm

#241 Post #235 Don on 02.06.15 at 3:36 pm
Canada is not the USA. We are no the world’s reserve currency. The Government can devalue it as far as they like with no effect on the rest of the world. I also believe we will ‘inflate our way out.’

We are 0.5% of the world population. Insignificant.
.
*********************************
The point is that – yes we are not the US and have less ability to manipuate things. Cheap exports matter less when the world is not buying. I am more worried about the effect more expensive imports (food) will have on pushing locals over the top. Inflate our way out – won’t matter in the next few months as those fly in fly outs spread the disease as some of them haven’t saved a penny. They won’t be able to hold on for long, two of my friends are already in trouble after making good money, neither saved a penny and are now laid off and looking to sell in the coming months or the bank will move in. They are young and have time to recover. They can go back home or rent an apartment together. It only takes one in a neighbourhood to start the slide, and instill further fear in the masses. Oh well, believe what you want. I hope you are right!

#274 Don on 02.06.15 at 7:34 pm

I must have surpased Mark today for the most comments….I will go back into my cave now.

Have a good weekend my fellow Canadians and fear not – our local, regional and federal governments have our interest at heart.

HE HE

#275 Skeptical skeptic on 02.06.15 at 7:42 pm

Absolutely skepticism drives science, it is its very core, but even Nobel prize winners lose it sometimes….

Extraterrestrial life

Mullis reported an encounter with a glowing green raccoon at his cabin in the woods of northern California around midnight one night in 1985. He denies the involvement of LSD in this encounter.[35]

#276 Well that's intriguing. on 02.06.15 at 7:54 pm

Science is amazing

http://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/woman-becomes-obese-after-fecal-transplant-overweight-donor

#277 Alex N Calgary on 02.06.15 at 7:55 pm

Wow Garth things are heating up, I can’t remember the last time I saw such excited people on her denying anything is happening and AB is still fine. You must be getting larger exposure now on web searches for the AB economy, just like real estate, often you need to see it in person to see the real picture as most media stuff is not true or heavily biased.

I guess people fight hardest right before it goes super bad eh?

#278 Irene in Oakville on 02.06.15 at 11:12 pm

#96 Centurion:

I know real estate is whacked when I see something like this $585K Oakville crapper sprout up on my Facebook:

http://www.447savillecres.com/

And it was described as having “amazing potential.”

—————————

The land value for a standard lot (60 x 120) with a teardown bung in that neighbourhood is about 550K, so it’s only a little overpriced. It’s the lot that has ‘potential’, not the house.

#279 tdarron on 02.07.15 at 6:58 pm

They shall crash their gold to pay debt …Jesus Christ c2015

#280 Jig is up on 02.08.15 at 2:55 am

Bank of International Standards calls Bullshit on the lame supply/demand excuses used by the Arabs and Obama administration for the reset in petroleum prices.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102404956?__source=yahoo|finance|headline|headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=102404956

Also points out that the Saudi’s are now borrowing to manage falling revenues. The WH can’t afford to keep up this charade for long.

#281 tdarron on 02.08.15 at 2:28 pm

There are approx 5000 oil super tankers in this world and many of them were parked on the high seas waiting for a place to dump the oil …at least one year before the price crash. The price crash is based mostly on supply and demand and take note ….this world has entered into a deflationary depression with debt fueled demand destruction.. I believe that all deflationary depressions turn into hyper inflation depressions very rapidly due to a distribution and production ‘seize.” The troika is about to take a bullet and as the financial crisis and currency war intensifies. Eventually the World Bank SDR “basket of currencies” will take effect but will this work ??? Will every country agree to a gold standard ??? How fast will the “US petrol dollar” collapse. Some say within 48 hrs. At that time you had better get back to work and actually produce something other than debt.