The fit

SMALL modified

Those regulators are so sneaky. It’s like hair loss or middle age spread (not that I’d know either) – before you realize it, you’re whacked.

Without even an announcement, the bank cops (OSFI – Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions) have forced lenders to tighten the strings on mortgages. This has immediately hit mortgage brokers, who are now letting realtors know their clients may have a harder time getting financing.

“The reality is, the Government of Canada is still very much concerned with the amount of debt load consumers have in Canada,” one broker says in an email blast.  “The more access to credit facilities, the higher the probability those facilities could be utilized/maxed out in the event of a job loss or marital break down, etc. … which could ultimately affect mortgages defaulting.  These are the concerns behind these initiatives.”

And isn’t it interesting that this latest move comes as the oil plop is raising serious concerns about job loss and economic slowdown here in the frozen north? (Suncor announced as I’m scribbling this that it’s punting 1,000 workers. Yikes.)

Well, here’s the change: more of any outstanding credit card bills or lines of credit will be added into the mix when determining a borrower’s financing limit. It means all those little virgins with their maxed-out plastic will qualify for a lesser mortgage than last month. For revolving credit of more than $50,000, a monthly payment of 3% will be factored into their obligations (even if the card company wants just 1%) and above that amount, amortized monthly payments must be included. It all means a smaller home loan, and ultimately is intended to pressure real estate prices down.

“Trust me when I say, that as I write this email, it is not meant to cause alarm or panic,” the broker cries, “but rather, to inform/educate you as to what lenders are now having to deal with.  The more we know, the more we can prepare our clients and ourselves for the new lending realities we face.”

You bet. And more to come.

For example, the Bank of Canada just ratcheted up the fear factor, in case all of the house-horny kids missed the news about our biggest export being crushed. The bank’s number two guy gave a speech this week with this message: (a) oil prices will stay in the ditch for “a significant period.” (b) this is going to hurt the economy and bring “important risks.” (c) don’t get too excited about cheap gas for your Vespa because the benefits will be “more than reversed” as incomes and investment in the oil business plunge, then ripple across the country.

So, with the Suncor news, it’s time for today’s installment of Cowtown Death Watch, courtesy of the Calgary Real Estate Board. Near the midway point for January, total residential sales in our most surprised city are down 28.2%. New listings continue to pile up – ahead of this time last year by 32.83%, while the number of total listings bloats. Hard to believe, but there are 53% more houses for sale now than last January, when oil was selling for almost $90 a barrel and particleboard mansions in the rolling burbs were flying off the shelf.

By the way, Suncor’s not only eliminating a thousand positions, but also carving $1 billion out of capital spending, as well as bringing in a hiring freeze. Says management: “Cost management has been an ongoing focus, with successful efforts to reduce both capital and operating costs well underway before the decline in oil prices. However, in today’s low crude price environment, it’s essential we accelerate this work. Today’s spending reductions are consistent with our commitment to spend within our means and maintain a strong balance sheet. We will monitor the pricing environment and take further action as required.”

I think there will be more fresh listings tomorrow.

This is so depressing. I’m happy there’s Sophie.

She emailed me yesterday, and this is her picture. sophie

Hi Garth, I have a client in Real Estate who would love to publish a guest post on your blog as it is a perfect fit at Greater Fool! So I would like to know how much it would be.

Can I please get a price for:

1. Us writing it and sending it to you for publication.
2. You writing it and publishing it on our behalf.

The client is in real estate so it’s a great fit! The article will NOT be advertising anything at all. It will be informative and great for the readership. Thanks, Sophie.

Now, isn’t that cute? An article written by a real estate company that they’ll pay me to place in front of you on this pathetic blog, but it’s not called advertising. Instead Sophie (who I totally trust is a hot cybermarketing babe who stalks me) just calls it ‘a great fit!’ Should I do it? How much should I quote? Will it be enough to hire a proofreader? Start a blog dog humane society? Get a Black&Decker power drill to adjust my ankle?

Help me out here.

290 comments ↓

#1 mark on 01.13.15 at 8:16 pm

Post up the article and we’ll take it apart in the comments. Should be a hoot.

#2 Paolo on 01.13.15 at 8:20 pm

Train wreck is definitely going momentum…

#3 mishuko on 01.13.15 at 8:22 pm

So I guess this round of lay-off is kinda of a precursor to what may happen? (similar to the scotia middle office lay-offs per say)

As for Sophie… maybe you could add her to your village of Amazons ;)

#4 TurnerNation on 01.13.15 at 8:23 pm

Where is Ma and Pa Investor. Gonna be a tough sell RSP season.

#5 Ray Skunk on 01.13.15 at 8:23 pm

Perhaps Sophie and her Realtor friend are simply wanting to use this blog to provide the newly-laid-off in Alberta with some money saving tips?

Such as this piece on making handbags out of recycled materials:

http://contributors.luckymag.com/post/recycled-materials-you-can-use-to-make-handbags

Just in time for Valentine’s Day, rig pigs!

#6 MunEcon on 01.13.15 at 8:23 pm

With that news I just created my own dirty crude!

YYC is still sleeping at the wheel me thinks.

#7 momoney on 01.13.15 at 8:24 pm

Garth. I think you should charge 3800. Cover your rent!!!

#8 Make 'em Pay on 01.13.15 at 8:25 pm

How about one of those “pay per click” widgets. They pay 10 cents to your favourite charity every time one of the blog-dogs click on the link to what ever they are selling.

The bill could be astronomical.

#9 Happy Renting on 01.13.15 at 8:26 pm

Ha ha! I guess it’s whatever the price is of your integrity. “Sophie”, are you familiar with the word “venal”?

#10 Dinglenuts on 01.13.15 at 8:26 pm

Charge her what Amanda Lang was paid to…errr…speak

#11 Ontario's Left Coast on 01.13.15 at 8:26 pm

Totally hot babes… Great fit?… Let’s check to make sure I’m on the right website! Cheers and first?

#12 Bob on 01.13.15 at 8:26 pm

You should tell her you’d be interested in seeing what it is Sophie is offering. It could be “informative” and make for a wonderful comments section.

#13 robert on 01.13.15 at 8:27 pm

Let them build their own blog…with all the credibility that they deserve….zero !

#14 Diggstown on 01.13.15 at 8:28 pm

Whatever the consensus is for the amount to charge please double it for her need to all caps “not”. Did Sophie type the word that way for fear that Garth would not understand the intent of her use of the word in the overall message? Thanks for listening.

#15 Iceflows on 01.13.15 at 8:29 pm

Garth,
You should definitely let them not advertise with a post. Then, the next day you can give a nice follow-up on Real Estate Co. logic.
Let them write the thing (I am sure you are overworked already) and post it with a disclaimer. Ask for a cool grand and send it a food bank in Calgary (or an animal charity as there are sure to be some new orphans/abandoned furry ones in cow town soon too.)
Iceflows

PS: Gawd, this is depressing. This oil price business makes you wonder if all those carbon divestment activists are actually having an effect.

#16 Visitor number 9 on 01.13.15 at 8:29 pm

Go for posting an article by the guest blogger.
It might be good for a few laughs.

#17 Dan on 01.13.15 at 8:29 pm

You should do it but the article has to be accompanied with bikini shots of Sophie.

#18 mike in kelowna on 01.13.15 at 8:30 pm

My goodness Garth that looks like my wife!! Sophie come home, please!! Where the hell are you? You said you were going to visit your mother in Bulgaria!

#19 Mark on 01.13.15 at 8:30 pm

“As for the CAD??? That’s going to continue its slide for a while. It won’t be trading anywhere near par with the USD for a long, long time. Might want to get your mind around that today. It will serve you better in the future with your investment strategies.”

Doubtful. And the nay-sayers were probably saying the same thing back in 2009. How wrong were they proven! The CAD$ is one of the most fundamentally sound fiat currencies on the planet. Far from witnessing a USA renaissance, it would appear that we may very well be experiencing its last gasps.

#20 Pay Attention to the 'Elite' class on 01.13.15 at 8:31 pm

I say ‘elite’ because it is self-appointed and I do not recognize anyone as my superior, but the point is…

the drop in oil was actually telegraphed before it happened

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-22/companies-pledging-action-as-leaders-set-to-talk-climate.html

‘The Rockefeller Brothers Fund […] is selling investments in the fossil fuel…’
‘ Total divested funds reached $50 billion this week, and advocates today pledged to triple the total by next December.’

the backdrop is that they did it for climate change and at first I thought they’d figured out how to tax the sun, and maybe they have

when people who built there fortune on oil sell their oil….well it’s a clue

same thing happened before gold tanked

try ‘Soros sells gold’ and see what you see

OK so maybe it is not telegraphed in English in a column that says “Oil set to plunge”, but the clues existed nonetheless

you just have to see it for what it is, rather than what it is not

#21 Skip Breakfast on 01.13.15 at 8:31 pm

$1000 which you donate to the SPCA plus the right for you to pen a rebuttal in the form of your choosing in the same space.

#22 totalinvestor.com on 01.13.15 at 8:32 pm

Real estate expert Ross Kay has lots to say on the Canadian market i.e. taxes, HAM, fees, etc in a recent interview. It’s a real eye opener. The interview starts at 7:40

http://totalinvestor.blogspot.ca/2015/01/this-week-in-money-with-guests-ross.html

#23 Retired Boomer - WI on 01.13.15 at 8:32 pm

Are you dangling’ ‘Truck Nutz” or something?

Heck no, let them post a comment, and if you see fit, post it. It is YOUR BLOG. The “GREATER FOOL BLOG” not the greater realtor blog, or the ‘re-formed realtor church for the un-inspired’.

let’s see their post, and we can agree, puke, or suggest deletion.

#24 Derek R on 01.13.15 at 8:33 pm

A perfect fit? I don’t think Sophie has read this pathetic blog.

#25 Goody Niosi on 01.13.15 at 8:33 pm

Oh Garth! Me! Me! Me! I am a professional writer/journalist! I will proof it – just pay me the leavings from your table! And it’s not even advertising!

#26 Cash is King on 01.13.15 at 8:34 pm

It is a much better offer than you received from Stephen H. but not nearly as lucrative as F’s TFSA.

Accept the offer, cash up front but demand 100% accuracy in the content. Being a realtor, the ad, errr “great fit” will never see the light of day.

#27 A A on 01.13.15 at 8:35 pm

Just get her phone number ;)…

#28 Role on 01.13.15 at 8:35 pm

Many time more lost than can say, if but when for finding the lost monies which we all can maybe find! Houses can’t more not be listed if any more so or not found sellers! Oil gone, but not every time gone. Can it be only a small markdown of best or/and worst time to find buyer or all for which place you did buy?! House can’t be best or worst that you did buy, now can it?! Suncor lost many, much, and lots of workers. LOL at Sophie. FAKE!

#29 Smoking Man on 01.13.15 at 8:36 pm

Gartho has gutter mind.. Love it.

Let me negotiate on your behalf, but I want to deal directly with Sophie.

#30 fignewton on 01.13.15 at 8:37 pm

Go for it Garth! Take the money! I mean as a responsible blogger you need to present the opposing view. Just imagine the comedy gold that can be mined in the not to distant future.

#31 Smoking Man on 01.13.15 at 8:37 pm

I believe today’s comments might break a record. The topic will bring everyone out.
The Herd was invited… Polite Canadians.

#32 Iceflows on 01.13.15 at 8:38 pm

As far as the sneaky regulators, about time. Too bad they didn’t do this when the rates dropped to the floor, it may have actually done something. Now it is too little too late. Not that it won’t cause some disappointment in some borrowers but, it your credit card debt is preventing you from getting a mortgage maybe the problem isn’t the regulations..

#33 triplenet on 01.13.15 at 8:38 pm

personally I’d play her.
then send her to grammar school.

#34 Ronaldo on 01.13.15 at 8:39 pm

You can borrow my Black and Decker drill Garth.

#35 Whinepegger on 01.13.15 at 8:39 pm

Where are all the FIRST screamers? Can’t get past Sophie’s pic I’d bet.

Let them do it, Garth. We may seem like an unsophisticated bunch of rednecks but you might be surprised at our ability to dissect the RE bafflegab.

#36 B-dot on 01.13.15 at 8:39 pm

[email protected]

#37 Nemesis on 01.13.15 at 8:39 pm

“Should I do it? How much should I quote? Will it be enough to hire a proofreader? Start a blog dog humane society? Get a Black&Decker power drill to adjust my ankle? Help me out here.” – HonGT

#In500WordsOrsLess?… #How’sThatBrandedContentThang… #Workin’OutForTheNYT?…

[AdWeek] – The New York Times Runs Its First-Ever Native Print Ad: The 8-page section was sponsored by Shell

http://www.adweek.com/news/press/new-york-times-runs-its-first-ever-native-print-ad-161547

[NYT] – New York Times Plans to Eliminate 100 Jobs in the Newsroom

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/02/business/media/new-york-times-plans-cutbacks-in-newsroom-staff.html?_r=0

#Today’sGratis!EducationalFeatures:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_advertising

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Branded_content

#BonusZen!… #HogTown’sVeryOwn… #BrandedCondoMania![[email protected]®]:

http://tinyurl.com/lfger72

#38 Rainclouds on 01.13.15 at 8:39 pm

Well………………..

You could do what I did today to the fetching 20 something girl who was oblivious to the fact she was taking the regular wino’s spot

The lovely lass stationed on Robson St waved her charity information clipboard enticingly and asked me ” can I talk to you?”

No.

#39 [email protected] on 01.13.15 at 8:40 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l91ISfcuzDw

#40 Fred on 01.13.15 at 8:40 pm

I say, let them post it after you look it through, but make sure the comment section stays open. It’ll be fun and it will give your typing finger (s) a day off.

#41 TurnerNation on 01.13.15 at 8:41 pm

Sneaky like hair in the awful places.
Still awaiting a GF-branded ear & nose hair removal tool. ;-)
Great gift to realtors.

#42 Andrewski on 01.13.15 at 8:41 pm

Priceless!

#43 #1 is time on 01.13.15 at 8:41 pm

Quote the price of a Hummer. If you can get a Hummer out of it, sounds like it would be worth it.

#44 Dan on 01.13.15 at 8:42 pm

Now I’m curious what would get posted by this realtor. Take the money, donate it to, I don’t know, the homeless, let the article get put up and have a point, counterpoint thing going on.

#45 Sylar on 01.13.15 at 8:42 pm

I’m curious as to what ‘message’ is deemed to be a ‘perfect fit’ for this channel. I propose you humor and provide us with more entertainment. Might be a manifesto of truth finally!

#46 mike in kelowna on 01.13.15 at 8:42 pm

Nope…..on second glance, I don’t think that’s her…

Sorry Garth..carry on big guy..

#47 Joe on 01.13.15 at 8:42 pm

First

#48 Emma Zaun - GreaterFool Unpaid Intern #007 on 01.13.15 at 8:44 pm

Dear Neanderthal Employer Garth,

As the newly elected Shop Steward for Greater Fool interns, I must advise you that accepting payment for such a contribution/publication will invoke the equity sharing clause in the new contractual agreement our members have approved.

We get 51%. You keep the rest.

We suggest therefore that you ask for $10,000 so we can each get a Canada Goose jacket. (And perhaps you can turn on the heat in the shop, too, you bugger.)

This will help ameliorate the complete lack of Christmas gifts you provided this year. Again.

Your email greeting cards were swell, as usual.

Sincerely,

Emma Zaun
Steward – CUPE
(Canadian Union of Peelers and Exhibitionists)

#49 brokerbyday on 01.13.15 at 8:44 pm

$1,000,000!!!!! you are worth way more than a power tool Garth. :)

#50 Albertaguy on 01.13.15 at 8:45 pm

Garth you must absolutely do this and the price should be a barrel of oil per reader.

#51 Conflicted Interests on 01.13.15 at 8:45 pm

Ask Amanda Lang or Leslie Roberts. They’d know what to do.

#52 Donn on 01.13.15 at 8:46 pm

Yes! we need a laugh and you can fill the Hummer….price accordingly…

#53 Grouchy on 01.13.15 at 8:46 pm

Sophie obviously thinks that you are too good to be true!

#54 ANON on 01.13.15 at 8:49 pm

Would make a nice April 1-st special.
But then again, by that date, most might not appreciate the joke’s on them. Worth a try for sh!t&giggles, what’s to lose, exactly?

#55 José on 01.13.15 at 8:50 pm

First Steve Poloz talks down the dollar. Then he follows by calling overpriced the very ndustry he helped to create a bubble in. Then his right hand Timmy tries to cause panic by implying that oil might go lower and stay that way for longer.

Maybe they should just shut up and stick to their duties of controling inflation.

They should have follwed the OECD’s advice 2 1/2 years ago and raised rates by a quarter of a point. Maybe then the housing bubble wouldn’t have inflated so much, the dollar would be lower but not rediculously low and ready to spike inflation, household debt would have likely been lower and Canada would be in a better position.

Unfortunately Poloz was hand picked by F more for his ability to tow the party line rather than his prowess as an economist. He’s opinionated, mouthy and Not nearly experienced enough – a bad choice to run the Bank of Canada.

#56 Rosholt on 01.13.15 at 8:53 pm

Sheesh, she’s not even Canadian!!!!!!!

Sophie Eagan:

https://plus.google.com/+SophieEagan/photos

[email protected]

Attended Kings Norton High School

I am Sophie, I live in the United Kingdom in Birmingham. Currently 25 and loving being a stay at home mum, I also love to write!

I absolutely LOVE to write on all different kinds of subjects, I research in all kinds of niches as I love to learn as I go. I am a full time mummy to my 3 year old beautiful girl and engaged to me lovely husband Rob.

http://www.brandwatch.com/2014/02/what-are-the-risks-for-financial-advisers-using-social-media/

Sure. Go ahead. Spoil it all. — Garth

#57 Oilsands Guy on 01.13.15 at 8:53 pm

There have been “quiet” layoffs at my employer in the last few weeks as their capital budget was also slashed… although they haven’t been announced as such as they’ve been restricted to the letting go of contractors/consultants or letting their contracts expire. The bigger hits related to these cuts may come later as their engineering and construction contractors have to grapple with finding work for the 1500 or so people that won’t be needed to build (now on-hold) new facilities for the foreseeable future.

Filled up today for 68.9c/L in Cowtown…..

#58 [email protected] on 01.13.15 at 8:54 pm

When I said Sophie is very always like the cat in the sun. But in the holeass in Bermuda oil si cheap so I tell you to get morgage. Marry me and my cat and I’ll buy you a sandwich.

#59 Robo on 01.13.15 at 8:56 pm

Garth man, you are a rockstar. As I rent a shabby hovel in Cowtown and build my wealth using your diversified portfolio suggestions, I have but one question: why are REIT’s popping right now?

The other day you recommended 17% Canadian stuff, including REIT’s. I am currently at 25% which includes ZRE at 10%, and that ETF has run up considerably since mid December…

Should Canadian REIT’s make up 5% of a portfolio? 10%? Thanks for the help! Investing is pretty easy and I have you to thank for it not being a pile of risk.

Regards from ground zero.

As bond yields fall, the returns on REITs, which are not correlated to stocks, look yummy. So they’ve been snapped up, with the resultant higher prices. In a balanced, diversified portfolio I would certainly not go above 10%. — Garth

#60 amazon girl on 01.13.15 at 8:56 pm

Don’t do it. You only deal with amazons

#61 Pico Rascar on 01.13.15 at 8:57 pm

Many of the comments here are often full sized articles so why not just post it to the comment section like everyone else?

#62 Kurt on 01.13.15 at 8:58 pm

ITSATRAP!

Do not accept money.

#63 Linda on 01.13.15 at 8:58 pm

Garth, sorry to hear the ankle needs adjusting – hope it realigns itself without resorting to power tools real soon:)

Regarding ‘the great fit’ – if what they want to say is so innocuous (no advertising or endorsing included) why can’t they simply leave a comment on your blog? Of course, if you go for it for sure charge them enough to give Bandit his very own doggie spa day, with lots of doggie treats!

#64 Dual Citizen in Canada on 01.13.15 at 8:58 pm

Garth, turnabout is fair play. Ask for no fee, just that they return the courtesy by allowing you to post on their blog or publication.

#65 wanda on 01.13.15 at 8:58 pm

She probably bulk emailed you.

If you’re going to make fun of the internet marketing babes, please for the love of god remove the Myspace link. Or does your 90’s band actually have a Myspace page?

Maybe you can use the money to splurge on a new WordPress theme. This site has a simple charm, but it looks like your posters probably smell.

#66 Washed Up Lawyer on 01.13.15 at 8:59 pm

Oh hell I don’t know. Ask Sophie for her transcript from law school before you decide.

I need some cheerful and absolutely uplifting news. Is the Oilers blog down the hall?

#67 Simplyput7 on 01.13.15 at 9:01 pm

No I don’t think you should whore out your website to a woman who may not even work for a real estate company let alone look like that (Google makeup sorcery, catfish profiles and photoshop for how easy it is to change your appearance). Is she even wearing a shirt in that picture?! Name one respectable business woman you know who would use that picture in any business context? You are just encouraging other real estate agents and companies to contact you because you can now be bought for a certain price. Like drugs, just say no.

#68 Peter Mansbingo on 01.13.15 at 9:06 pm

Good evening,

Garth, we in television fully support you in this endeavour. Don’t let the naysayers have at you – there is nothing wrong in accepting payment for favourable treatment of a particular sector. And the more of it you do, the more it all balances out. Even Rex shills for religion these days.

Let me set up a meeting for you with Amanda. She’s a whiz at this stuff.

#69 Cow Man on 01.13.15 at 9:06 pm

Sir Garth:

What are the chances that you will be turning Greater Fool into a dating Blog. “Many a man has lost his head over a piece of real estate?”

#70 TurnerNation on 01.13.15 at 9:08 pm

Have her meet blog publicist Smoking man. Guaranteed results.

#71 X on 01.13.15 at 9:10 pm

Post their article….don’t charge them, or perhaps a donation to a local animal shelter or something….but they should know they get what they pay for if they submit a biased article to your blog.

#72 nonplused is excited about this! on 01.13.15 at 9:12 pm

Let them write the article and then post it for free Garth! And then let the blog dogs eat them!!!!! Oh this is going to be so much fun!

Of course put the usual disclaimers before hand, that what we are about to read is Sophie’s article, not yours, and admonish the dogs to be polite while ripping fresh lovely flesh off her hide.

About the Suncor announcement, the billion in capital cuts is far worse than the 1000 jobs. About half of that billion, probably more when you look at the trickle down, is labor. $500 million in lost wages is a lot more than 1000 direct jobs.

#73 will on 01.13.15 at 9:12 pm

Well of course bring it on. I’m pretty sure blog dogs can handle whatever garbage comes our way. But, blog dogs, don’t forget we will be responding to the client of the babe – not the babe in the photo.

#74 pinstripe on 01.13.15 at 9:13 pm

IMO, Cut out the political correctness. tell sophie to go to hell.

#75 nonplused on 01.13.15 at 9:14 pm

Oh and about lenders suddenly coming to Jesus on lending standards, well duh. Even a banker can figure out that oil and gas exports are a huge subsidy to our economy and if those subsidies disappear, so does a lot of money in the economy. Somebody is going to go broke.

#76 George O on 01.13.15 at 9:14 pm

They’re just looking for a linkback from a high PR website so they can capitalize on google for real estate keywords across Canada. I deal with these schmucks on a daily basis.

#77 TheAwakenedOne on 01.13.15 at 9:16 pm

Woof woof !

Do it Sir Garth ! For us, for the nation and for our brave Prime minister Stevie !

But on a second thought:
something tells me… hot Sophie
is an old, desperate realtor,
A big, fat and hairy boss!
Those puppy eyes she’s got…
It’s like “forget me not…” , baby
But not for you, and not for me
Sir Garth: to do, or not to do??
The power drill: seems like a great fit !
Yes, I’ll do it, I’ll do it all, for Sophie
And these loyal loving blog dogs… :O)

#78 saskatoon on 01.13.15 at 9:16 pm

don’t do it, garth.

there can be no compromise with evil.

#79 Dave on 01.13.15 at 9:16 pm

Have her put the money under a rock, in say, Surrey, and then say you never found it!

#80 devore on 01.13.15 at 9:16 pm

Wonder how long it will take Matilda the strong Toronto woman to poke her troll head in here.

#81 Porkpie on 01.13.15 at 9:17 pm

Sell them only a package deal. One article they write, and one article you write—about them, for their business. Don’t charge too much now, don’t want to scare them off and spoil our fun.

#82 Lala on 01.13.15 at 9:17 pm

DELETED

#83 Sue on 01.13.15 at 9:20 pm

Comedic value aside, this poor young woman is surely more to be pitied than anything. Something about a degree in communications, $40K in student debt and having to scramble for a crust, I’m sure. You know what rents in Tronna are like…

Perhaps you can give her advice. How to get out of student debt? A young friend of mine explained it. Get it moved to your credit cards then go bankrupt. It took a little time, but it worked.

The pushers at various financial institutions are desperately peddling their products as much as they can, while they can.

#84 Curious on 01.13.15 at 9:21 pm

Serious question. Tightening credit will cool the housing market at the same time exports are falling due to the price of oil and imports will be more expensive due to the falling Cdn dollar. Doesn’t this imply that a recession is coming?

#85 Chickenlittle on 01.13.15 at 9:21 pm

Sophie is a CATFISH!!! The biggest scam out there..send in a pic of a “hot” chick and reel all those neglected men in. Garth, let us women take care of this one. I guarantee “she” would leave very disappointed.

Seriously, does she think she’s applying for a job at a club?

#86 David McKenna on 01.13.15 at 9:22 pm

Who’s got $50k in revolving credit?

Is this new rule only for each $50k revolving account? Or cumulative debt?

Other than a luxury car, do people really have $50k+ on one credit card or a non-backed line of credit?

#87 JG on 01.13.15 at 9:25 pm

Garth,

now would be a great time to do a post on creditor proof investments……
just sayin’

#88 TurnerNation on 01.13.15 at 9:28 pm

Yeah I would not miss the Slang and O’Dreary show.
Good from afar but far from good.

#89 Stephen on 01.13.15 at 9:28 pm

Still don’t see 604 listings going up / sales going down?

#90 Mark on 01.13.15 at 9:31 pm

“Serious question. Tightening credit will cool the housing market at the same time exports are falling due to the price of oil and imports will be more expensive due to the falling Cdn dollar. Doesn’t this imply that a recession is coming?”

Imports are likely to fall quite significantly as well, as Canadians reign in spending, particularly on imported goods, vacations, etc.

Of course, the economy, as currently structured, with its huge component devoted towards the supply of housing, and O&G, is extremely vulnerable to negative growth.

#91 Mr. Cheswick on 01.13.15 at 9:33 pm

When was the last time that a girl that looks like Sophie said you were a great fit, then offered you money?

Back in your Jon Voight days?

#92 TS on 01.13.15 at 9:39 pm

Garth,

Charge a $5500 and give it away to a lucky reader as long as they agree to put it in their TFSA :)

One Condition though: Sophie sends you pictures of her in a bikini and you post them* as the article photo to bring us back to the amazon women days.

*If she’s under 50 and has a BMI of under 25.

TS

#93 Toronto_CA on 01.13.15 at 9:40 pm

Why did she send you a photo? That’s not normal.

#94 Sebee on 01.13.15 at 9:40 pm

Take the money Garth. You should absolutely make April 1st spot available. Make them write it. Donate money to a dog shelter. Sort it all out April 2nd.

#95 Nobleton Bill on 01.13.15 at 9:40 pm

#56 Oilsands Guy on 01.13.15 at 8:53 pm

I appreciate your economic updates…keep them coming

#96 Centurion on 01.13.15 at 9:41 pm

The price of a Kia should be a fair enough quote.

#97 JSS on 01.13.15 at 9:45 pm

So…at what price do you buy Suncor common shares at? $29?

#98 Montellino on 01.13.15 at 9:48 pm

Please let Mark write it.. it would be a Bold thing to do… and he’d love you forever. You know it

#99 Smoking Man on 01.13.15 at 9:49 pm

#68 TurnerNation on 01.13.15 at 9:08 pm
Have her meet blog publicist Smoking man. Guaranteed results.
…….
Ha, results will be very disappointing. I consume far to much alcohol and nicotine to drive a hard bargain that would satisfy Sophie’s expectations.

#100 Fiendish thingy on 01.13.15 at 9:50 pm

Garth-
If she’s not advertising anything, then I’m sure she won’t mind if you post her article free of charge, with no links back to her site, and with line by line commentary by yourself as well as comments by blogdogs.

#101 Paully on 01.13.15 at 9:50 pm

The picture looks hot, but is that even really her? The whole thing seems sleazy. I would launch her and her guest post.

#102 PPSEZ on 01.13.15 at 9:51 pm

NO, NO, NO
A simple NO , not just to Sophie, to anybody.
We don’t want anybody else here

#103 Wrong info Garth on 01.13.15 at 9:51 pm

Osfi rules don’t apply to car loans, they are not revolving like credit cards

That’s good. I didn’t mention them. — Garth

#104 Blobby on 01.13.15 at 9:52 pm

Im curious as to what they’ll send u

.. Other blogs would obviously take it and post it without any explanation that it was an advert.

Be interesting to see what they have to say, and are willing to pay for!

#105 waiting on the westcoast on 01.13.15 at 9:52 pm

Smoking man… She has more fans than you and she hasn’t even posted yet… ;-)

#106 Smoking Man on 01.13.15 at 9:52 pm

#88 Mark on 01.13.15 at 9:31 pm

Can you let your hair down for once and give us your take on Sophie.. Always robotic serious…

Lighten up if you can…

#107 Dadeedum on 01.13.15 at 9:55 pm

It’s starting. The banks make it harder to get a mortgage, which will discourage first time buyers, which will lead to price erosion, which will make the banks ask for higher down payments to cover their risk, and the spiral down in price will be self sustaining.

Definitely invite Sophie’s client in for a guest post. Wouldn’t it be a hoot if it was the Rolls Royce rider himself, Brian Lamb?

#108 W Ables on 01.13.15 at 10:00 pm

Garth, I think you should post the article with a disclaimer.

No editing. Make sure that the company doing the flogging has it’s name prominently displayed in the article. When someone Googles the company, this is the first item they see.

Sophie knows that all Blogs are open to comment, so if they are willing to take the chance, I say go for it.

Please don’t set a precedence. Do this position it as a favour for your new best friend.

You can’t put a price on this type of exposure, but pick a very large number and donate the money to a charity.

#109 Missing Victoria on 01.13.15 at 10:01 pm

Garth or other readers:

What are everyone’s thoughts on Target closing shop? Anecdotally, the stores seemed to have picked up a bit over the last quarter, but on the average I think your average 7-11 is busier than most Targets. With the dollar sinking lower, goods will rise in cost. Combine that with volatility in the markets and already stressed household cash flows (especially in the GVRD), people will be far more price concious. Price perception is huge and people will be avoiding Target to shop at Walmart or Loblaws.

What if Target folds and decides to pull out this year? 27,000 people would be let go, not to mention the collateral damage occurring to vendors, suppliers, etc….

This doesn’t bode well for the economy…

#110 Freedom First on 01.13.15 at 10:02 pm

Yes, good timing for the mortgage tightening rules by the Regulators. Canadians are indebted to the stratosphere in every way possible, form their Truck nutz, to their falling window panes condos, and their newly renovated crack shacks. The squeeze is on.

As for Sophie, right on Garth, we needed a good laugh.

I would give you my input, Sophie, but Garth runs a family rated Financial Blog, and I would be deleted….bye bye now.

#111 Max Jones on 01.13.15 at 10:02 pm

Just read on the web that I can now use my VISA for a down payment. Who needs cheques or money in the bank? Oops, guess VISA debt now factors into how much mortgage I could qualify for. Bummer.

http://globalnews.ca/news/1771099/mobile-payments-coming-to-real-estate-home-deposits/

Well at least I can buy a house in my pyjamas without bothering to shower and get dressed.

#112 Setting the Record Straight on 01.13.15 at 10:03 pm

“#73 hohoho on 01.12.15 at 10:20 pm
> … Why do I need to move? …

you don’t need to move, you voluntarily choose not to move. if you don’t want to shop around, you pay what the closest corner store charges.”

The corner store doesn’t have guns and badges.

#113 Eric on 01.13.15 at 10:03 pm

Charge her $100/day and give us the opportunity to have fun with her post.
:-)

#114 Rabi Dmangycur on 01.13.15 at 10:04 pm

Hey Garth

I ran Sophie’s pic on TinEye and it looks unique (genuine, not generic)

http://www.tineye.com/

If her client is also smoking hot, I would suggest you get them both on your blog. Perhaps not as the Aden Sisters, but occasional guest commentators. (With or without the magic marker option.- your call.)
If the client is a guy, I would ixnay.

#115 Yuus bin Haad on 01.13.15 at 10:06 pm

Just tell me you didn’t click on any of the links in her email Garth.

#116 takla on 01.13.15 at 10:08 pm

The oil price drop/layoff contagion will spread outwards from the oil fields of Alberta both the east and west.Already im seeing former workers looking south for construction jobs just as positions here are tightening up.Think of all the spinnoff jobs from the oil patch,machineing ,trucking,parts,exploration ,private contractors serving the oil path ect ect.
read yesterday the average salarys of most employed there is north of 100,000. per yr. Ditto for the U.S shale industry.
As for the guest post from sofie…you should ask her what she was wearing when she sent the email..

#117 Ex-Cowtown on 01.13.15 at 10:10 pm

Pay Attention to the ‘Elite’ class on 01.13.15 at 8:31 pm

I say ‘elite’ because it is self-appointed and I do not recognize anyone as my superior, but the point is…

the drop in oil was actually telegraphed before it happened

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-22/companies-pledging-action-as-leaders-set-to-talk-climate.html

‘The Rockefeller Brothers Fund […] is selling investments in the fossil fuel…’
‘ Total divested funds reached $50 billion this week, and advocates today pledged to triple the total by next December.’

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Factually correct but your interpretation is out to lunch. management of the Rockefeller Fund was taken over by a bunch of elitist eco-nazis and they are getting out of oil as a political statement. It has nothing to do with the price of oil. The elitist management will continue to jet around the globe in first class though.

#118 Smoking Man on 01.13.15 at 10:13 pm

#101 waiting on the westcoast on 01.13.15 at 9:52 pm
Smoking man… She has more fans than you and she hasn’t even posted yet… ;-)
……

Life isn’t fair.. :(

#119 Steve Van on 01.13.15 at 10:13 pm

Oh please let her post! I would love to see it. Charge a lot, too.

#120 RealistvsExtremist on 01.13.15 at 10:19 pm

DELETED

#121 not 1st on 01.13.15 at 10:22 pm

Garth, take some cash and take a day off. The blog dogs will take care of Sophie’s “client” if its a pumper fluffer article. I don’t think her client knows what they are getting into.

#122 The American on 01.13.15 at 10:31 pm

At #19: Mark, you mean THIS U.S. renaissance?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102294235

http://www.npr.org/2014/12/24/372837145/lower-gas-prices-add-fuel-to-u-s-economic-recovery

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/12/everything-is-awesome-113801.html#.VLXTOYvIakg

http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/world_economies_gdp/

http://www.wnd.com/2014/12/not-so-fast-u-s-still-worlds-biggest-economy/

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-economy-still-bigger-than-chinas-but-maybe-not-as-crucial-2014-12-04

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/23/us-economy-gdp-idUSKBN0K111Y20141223

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/23/u-s-economy-grew-at-a-rate-of-5-percent-in-third-quarter-the-fastest-in-more-than-a-decade/

http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/23/news/economy/us-gdp-economy-5-percent-growth/

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-third-quarter-gdp-revised-up-to-5-0-growth-1419341481

And for any right-winger Canadians out there (yes, that’s about half of you…) http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/07/05/5-reasons-why-us-economy-is-recovering/

And where are your sources, Mark, outlining your claims about the CAD and its place holder in the future?

#123 Smoking Man on 01.13.15 at 10:34 pm

Sophie, I have a book release this December, I read your website. I will hire you for your service, provided it’s reasonable. I want more than 33 sales the day I launch it.

Click on my name, takes you to my blog. Contact me there.

I’m serious.. Do you offer, Facebook and Twitter exposure.. That would be cool too.

#124 Capt. Obvious on 01.13.15 at 10:39 pm

Don’t tease us Garth show us the full pic!

#125 raj on 01.13.15 at 10:39 pm

$50 per comment gets posted by blog dog after the article Money goes to charity

#126 Brian Ripley on 01.13.15 at 10:41 pm

Sophie is probably working for a crowd sourcing employer:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crowdsourcing

The last time I looked into an “offer” like this by asking the rep to give me links to sample articles, I found that the writing was very poor indeed.

If I am correct in my assumption about Sophie, she is actually being, or will be replaced, by algorithms that write articles all day long:
http://www.wired.com/2012/04/can-an-algorithm-write-a-better-news-story-than-a-human-reporter/all/

#127 Nemesis on 01.13.15 at 10:48 pm

#TheySaid,”SuitsYou,Sir”… #TheFit,Or… #CautionaryTalesForThoseConvincedThat… #PropertyOnlyEveryGoesUP… #PayingAttention604/416?… #Architecture… #History… #Climate… #CelebrityCachet… #&USD25BigOnes/TheHorror!:50%Reduction…

[LAT] – Bob Hope’s Palm Springs estate reduced by half from last year

…”The Bob and Dolores Hope estate in Palm Springs, designed by renowned Modern architect John Lautner, is now priced at $24.999 million — less than half of the $50 million asked last year.

Overlooking the Coachella Valley, the dramatic concrete, steel and glass house was built for the Hopes in 1979 and sits on 6.2 acres. The home, the largest private residence designed by Lautner, is topped with a curving copper roof intended to evoke the shape of the nearby mountains.

Walls of glass allow unobstructed city, mountain and valley views.”… [Fabulously illustrated, SaltierDogz]

http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/hot-property/la-fi-hotprop-bob-hope-20141202-story.html

[NoteToGT: You’d be positively amazed at the response a centenary birthday greeting from someone who understood his Life’sWork would subsequently elicit…]

#128 RealistvsExtremist on 01.13.15 at 10:49 pm

DELETED

#129 Ole Doberman on 01.13.15 at 10:50 pm

Here is an email I received from a buddy today recalling the previous housing bust in Calgary:

“I’ve been here since 1976 and have seen many ups and downs. When housing collapsed it was quite brutal. Some banks actually had so many foreclosures that they set up Atco trailers for their staff to work out of in areas such as Coach Hill and Strathcona. At the time these were newly built areas and had a high percentage of home owners who were either let go by their employers or had their income severely decreased. Many had put up minimal down payments and had big monthly payments at quite high interest rates (compared to today). Some who ended up with a mortgages higher than their home values ended up abandoning. At the time it didn’t look like oil prices, and therefore, home prices, would rebound in any sort of short term. If there are differences today, the oil companies are not as leveraged to debt, are more streamlined in terms of employees, the Calgary economy is more diversified, and the interest rates are way lower.”

See Ole Doberman has the goods to contribute around here too.

#130 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 01.13.15 at 10:50 pm

#17 Dan on 01.13.15 at 8:29 pm

You should do it but the article has to be accompanied with bikini shots of Sophie.

This.

BTW, what is “revolving credit of more than $50,000”?

For a private individual that is. I know a department store or an overnight loan between banks might be of that magnitude, but if you’re running 50 thou a month on credit then it’s probably for fuel for the yacht en route to the Grand Prix in Monaco in the springtime. In which case you wouldn’t need a mortgage on a residence.

Aggregate revolving credit of $50K; not a month. — Garth

#131 Ole Doberman on 01.13.15 at 10:53 pm

Also interesting to note that even though interest rates dropped from 14% in 1990 to 6% by 1994 the RE market still tanked during this time and didn’t get any traction till way later in the decade – as Gartho is indicating about interest rates in relation to price.

How I’m I doing today?

#132 Andrew Woburn on 01.13.15 at 10:57 pm

#154 Rates Up on 01.13.15 at 1:27 pm
The Fed has already begun to tighten

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-has-already-begun-to-tighten-2015-01-13?link=MW_home_latest_news
——————————————–

Thanks for posting this.

Far be it from me to argue with a noted economist, but the chart he referred to actually shows a sharp increase in the monetary base (MB) starting the end of Oct ’14. At November the MB had regained about half of the steep decline Mr. Kellner talked about. If you go to the FRED chart, you can zoom in on 2014 to see what I mean.

The US monetary base includes currency in circulation and reserves required to be held at the Fed by commercial banks. In this increasingly cashless age, I doubt if economists lose much sleep over how many coins and dollar bills are floating out there so Mr. Kellner was probably more concerned about a drop in the level of Fed reserves. These reserves are part of MB but as they cannot be spent or lent out, I am missing a key point on how a change in their level affects interest rates. Can anyone help me out here?

#133 Hot Albertan Money on 01.13.15 at 11:05 pm

She’s probably a dude, dude.

#134 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 01.13.15 at 11:06 pm

#96 JSS on 01.13.15 at 9:45 pm

So…at what price do you buy Suncor common shares at? $29?

You don’t. Not yet. You buy Suncor bonds with a YTM of 4.6%, until things stabilize. Maturity dates maybe 3 to 5 years out. Same with all other relatively safe energy companies at this point. Quotes usually refer to units of 100,000 to 1,000,000 face value. That will give you enough to stay ahead of inflation.

And you watch stock price progressions of the best energy companies over the next half year, to buy in at a relatively stable point. They’ll give you 15 to 20% dividend return until their hedging terminates – over the next 18 months.

#135 Mukadi on 01.13.15 at 11:16 pm

I prefer to read this pathetic blog than reading Re-maxed crap.

#136 Andrew Woburn on 01.13.15 at 11:17 pm

#9 Happy Renting on 01.13.15 at 8:26 pm
Ha ha! I guess it’s whatever the price is of your integrity. “Sophie”, are you familiar with the word “venal”?
========================

Most of the dogs seem more interested in her familiarity with the word “venereal”.

#137 kommykim on 01.13.15 at 11:18 pm

RE #75 George O on 01.13.15 at 9:14 pm
They’re just looking for a linkback from a high PR website so they can capitalize on google for real estate keywords across Canada.

After looking at Sophie Eagan’s profile on Google+, I do believe you’re right!

#138 NoName on 01.13.15 at 11:19 pm

So she wants a piece of prime real estate. Guess comment section not good enough for her…
She is good, acting like a lady, thinking like a man.

#139 SWL1976 on 01.13.15 at 11:22 pm

This all sounds like AI gone wrong. Really does she know who she is writing to? Has she ever read this blog? Or worse the comments section?

Make her a deal that she can publish a guest post, but only on the condition that she writes while going shot for shot of JD with Smoking Man while they verbally read excerpts from his book in public to see how they sound

#140 Smoking Man on 01.13.15 at 11:24 pm

#132 Hot Albertan Money on 01.13.15 at 11:05 pm
She’s probably a dude, dude
…….

God damn Conspiracy Theorist everywhere.

#141 omg the original on 01.13.15 at 11:26 pm

Suncor announced as I’m scribbling this that it’s punting 1,000 workers. Yikes.
——————–

Are those actual Suncor employees out the door?

That would mean that all the contractors have already been given the news that they will not be renewed. From what I understand 2/3 of technical design people in the field for large companies are contractors and the ratio is much higher for smaller companies. So easy to see why Calgary listing have popped so quickly.

#142 Chaddywack on 01.13.15 at 11:29 pm

I’ve lost too much money over the years to babes who look just like that……not worth it!

#143 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 01.13.15 at 11:32 pm

#57 Oilsands Guy on 01.13.15 at 8:53 pm

There have been “quiet” layoffs at my employer in the last few weeks as their capital budget was also slashed… although they haven’t been announced as such as they’ve been restricted to the letting go of contractors/consultants or letting their contracts expire. The bigger hits related to these cuts may come later as their engineering and construction contractors have to grapple with finding work for the 1500 or so people that won’t be needed to build (now on-hold) new facilities for the foreseeable future.

Filled up today for 68.9c/L in Cowtown…..

65 cents dude…
http://www.edmontongasprices.com/

Of course, this might be a good time to get your IFR, night, and commercial ratings.

#144 Slim on 01.13.15 at 11:33 pm

Don’t even think about it, Garth!

#145 Washed Up Lawyer on 01.13.15 at 11:34 pm

#134 Andrew Woburn

On the suggestion that Sophie was venal you said:

Most of the dogs seem more interested in her familiarity with the word “venereal”.

***********************************

Reminds me of a writer that meant to say “… an inveterate gambler…” and said “… an invertebrate gambler….”

New movie “Garth’s Sophie Choice”.

#146 Cgyrentersmilingontheinside on 01.13.15 at 11:36 pm

#130

A little off on you grammar

#147 Nomad on 01.13.15 at 11:38 pm

My colleague just told me an unfortunate real-estate story:

1- Friend in Calgary sells condo to oil worker
2- At the same time the Friend buys a big house
3- Oil worker looses job soon after
4- Bank does not want to lend to laid off oil worker
5- Friend now has two mortgages

Careful out there. If not for yourself, for our stocks.

#148 KG on 01.13.15 at 11:38 pm

I vote for #1’s plan.

#149 omg the original on 01.13.15 at 11:39 pm

#130 Ole Doberman
Also interesting to note that even though interest rates dropped from 14% in 1990 to 6% by 1994 the RE market still tanked during this time and didn’t get any traction till way later in the decade
———————–

Good point. It nicely illustrate “reversion to the mean”. Real estate in Ontario had a huge run up in the mid to late 1980s and every remember everyone talking about it and buying rental properties.

Then things sucked for about 4 or 5 years and people lost their equity (plus).

In some Ontario markets you could pick up properties for 60 to 70 cents on the dollar in the 1990s versus what they sold for in the late 1980s.

#150 The fit | Realties.ca on 01.13.15 at 11:42 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/01/13/the-fit/ […]

#151 RealistvsExtremist on 01.13.15 at 11:42 pm

DELETED

#152 DanInCalgary on 01.13.15 at 11:45 pm

Sketchy. Don’t do it…

#153 chapter 9 on 01.13.15 at 11:47 pm

How long is oil going to remain at $50 bucks or less a barrel?
Cash reserves Saudi’s $757 Billion, UAE $773 billion,Quatar $548 Billion,Kuwait $256 Billion

OPEC meets Friday June 5 in Vienna

#154 Smoking Man on 01.13.15 at 11:47 pm

140 Chaddywack on 01.13.15 at 11:29 pm
I’ve lost too much money over the years to babes who look just like that……not worth it!
….
I beg to differ, your mistake, ownership. I GO with sort term rentals in the property market.

#155 Samour on 01.13.15 at 11:48 pm

1 Trillion Dollars

Hahahahaha

#156 omg the original on 01.13.15 at 11:53 pm

WILL ALBERTA”S WOES BE THE END OF THE GREAT CANADIAN HOUSING BULL

Canadian housing needs a CATALYST with a CAPITAL C to start the great reversion. Oil prices may be the BIG C for Alberta housing but not for Canadian housing.

I think the impacts on housing of the drop in oil prices will be confirmed mainly to Alberta and Saskatchewan.

While there are people outside those provinces working in manufacturing and services that supply the oil sector its not a big proportion of the overall Canadian workforce. Not going to be a lot of people in Scarberia selling because oil is down!

Plus there will be a huge economic benefit to the rest of Canada if oil prices stay low for an extended period of time. This may even push prices higher in TO and YVR.

So no real change in Canada’s overheated YVR and TO markets until there is some catalyst that actually hits them (that is, meaning interest rate increases).

Sorry folks no realistically priced housing in the near future. Just rent, save your money, and be patient.

#157 West Coast on 01.13.15 at 11:53 pm

Run Garth run!
(from……… ‘not quite old enough to be your mum’!)

#158 M on 01.13.15 at 11:54 pm

Garth, mano,.. If I would give my advice re. babe-add-what should you charge,…. you will delete my advice, you will blush and you will be speechless for 0.42 seconds.

:)

..however… how do we know that the pic is her REAL pic ? tried blind dating before ?

#159 Leo Tolstoy on 01.13.15 at 11:55 pm

The CAD easily falls further from here. Into the 70 cents per USD. The fed has already started tightening and restricting money supply.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-has-already-begun-to-tighten-2015-01-13

Like oil, gold and other commodities, copper is getting annihilated.

http://www.businessinsider.com/copper-drops-january-13-2015-1?platform=bi-iphone

Those who listened to Garth and loaded up on US assets will be sitting in the sun. Meanwhile Canadians who slept with gold under their pillows and oil and Canadian dollars in their portfolios will get slaughtered.

Wealth transfer from the wrong to the right.

#160 Bottoms_Up on 01.13.15 at 11:57 pm

Garth there is nothing you haven’t written about and analysed to shreds. So this undertaking would be for Shats and Giggles only.

Any proceeds should be immediately donated to the less fortunate (eg, food bank, women’s shelter etc.).

#161 Washed Up Lawyer on 01.14.15 at 12:00 am

Andrew Woburn:

Could not resist two more:

1. How about an august 100 year old law firm of Phibbs & Argue (Est. 1908) possibly getting “a venerable firm” wrong in its firm brochure; and

2. One my law firm actually did on a filing with a securities commission on an IPO which was called “Initial Pubic Offering”. This won the “Chump of the Year Award” at our annual banquet.

#162 Nemesis on 01.14.15 at 12:02 am

#PartingShotsForThe… #WellDeservedAmusement… #OfTheLongSufferingGreaterFool… #GirlyCrowd!… #”YourFirstSuit,Sir?”,Or… #CoopersDroopIsNotExclusively… #ALadyThang…

http://youtu.be/FmwQD1Y2k6g

[NoteToGT: I had this really nasty email from Ellen Rosenbush {ShutUp, SmokingMan!} @ Harpers a few minutes ago… Basically, if I didn’t link to this: http://www.harpersbazaar.com/culture/features/famous-feminists-throughout-history#slide-1 – I was reliably informed that ‘CoopersDroop’ would be the very least of my problems. I know you understand, AuldPol. “Whew, that was a CloseOne.”]

#163 dosouth on 01.14.15 at 12:28 am

http://tinyurl.com/pg9htoe

Nanaimo on the upswing again…Cameron Muir says so. Trying to puff up the local ecomomy? Help!

#164 Happity on 01.14.15 at 12:35 am

The ankle?

Wait a couple months and power tools might be cheaper.

#165 meslippery on 01.14.15 at 12:37 am

Sophie whats [email protected] mean 10 9 8 (dont give time to google)

#166 Ronaldo on 01.14.15 at 12:41 am

#159 Washed Up Lawyer –

”2. One my law firm actually did on a filing with a securities commission on an IPO which was called “Initial Pubic Offering”. This won the “Chump of the Year Award” at our annual banquet.”

Good one. A few years back I was looking through the Public Service Commision Postings and in the Duties and Responsibilities section of a particular job I was looking at it read, ”Some shit work required”. Of course they meant to say shift work. It was good for a laugh in the coffee room.

#167 Joe Anderson on 01.14.15 at 12:44 am

Re: Sophie, that’s almost unbelievable, but I trust your not making that up. Against my better judgment, I say you let them post for free as long as they don’t try to pass off their advertising as your writing. I suspect the comedic value will more than make up for the lack of money.

#168 Joe Anderson on 01.14.15 at 12:46 am

you’re*

Damn typos. Guess I won’t get to be the proof reader for Sophie’s article!

#169 Mark on 01.14.15 at 12:48 am

“Canadian housing needs a CATALYST with a CAPITAL C to start the great reversion. Oil prices may be the BIG C for Alberta housing but not for Canadian housing. “

That “catalyst” happened in 2013, with F’s Budget 2013 and changes to CMHC subprime mortgage insurance introduced. House prices have been falling ever since in most major Canadian cities.

The top of the US housing market, in 2005-2006, wasn’t marked with a big bang either. It was marked by the subprime lenders simply cutting off lending expansion. Much like, in Canada, the 2013 top was marked by the government’s refusal to expand subprime credit to the sector by holding the CMHC limit at $600B.

#170 Mark on 01.14.15 at 12:52 am

“Also interesting to note that even though interest rates dropped from 14% in 1990 to 6% by 1994 the RE market still tanked during this time and didn’t get any traction till way later in the decade – as Gartho is indicating about interest rates in relation to price.”

Very true, because credit-worthiness was the issue then. And is increasingly becoming the issue today. It doesn’t matter what the actual interest rate is — if credit-worthy borrowers with sufficient equity to buy houses aren’t available, prices continue to drop no matter what stimulative measures are implemented by the central banks.

70% of Canadians already own. The other 30% either can’t own (ie: can’t save, are institutionalized, are too young or too old), or simply don’t want to own unless the prices are dramatically lower.

#171 Mark on 01.14.15 at 12:55 am

“If there are differences today, the oil companies are not as leveraged to debt, are more streamlined in terms of employees, the Calgary economy is more diversified, and the interest rates are way lower.””

Very true. However, the consumers, the residential retail borrowers, are dramatically more leveraged today than they were back then. What’s the old saying, “six of one or half dozen of the other”??

#172 Judadeke on 01.14.15 at 12:56 am

Wow…..just found this site. Thinking it reads so much better than the usual 140 characters on Twitter. Consider me hooked, Mr. Turner (and sinking too with not one but two houses in Beautiful BC — oh, what to do? Maybe your, uh, new friend, Sophie CAN help?).

#173 SWL1976 on 01.14.15 at 12:57 am

Well it’s sad to see and I definitely have no joy in seeing people suffer bad decision or not. Some people are genuinely starting to worry here, these are young people with families at home. Hard working people who got hood winked into real estate always going up.

The financial problems are not contained to one age group of people. From 25 year old’s who have never seen a down turn to people pushing 70, yes its sad that there are people here in their late 60’s still grinding away working 7 or 14 back to back 12 hour shifts, but they’re here and I know its not for the food or the view. Anyways the smart ones have been finding a place to fit in that is not too close to the door.

The first round of cuts is over and peoples cages are rattled. Everyone knows that there will be more cuts, it is just a matter of when and how deep. Funny thing is that, less than a year ago people would complain about how bad camp food is and how shitty it is to be here… Now when they get their flight itinerary they hope its not a one way trip home and are hoping they are coming back.

I’ve been telling people here to keep quiet cause now is not the time the squeaky wheel gets the grease. Now the squeaky will will get removed. For those who don’t know I am at 1 of the big sites in the Fort Mac area

Expected less. Nothing was fixed after GFC just exacerbated

Could the ending of QE be a significant reason for the slump in the demand for oil?

I have never claimed to be a financial genius but I know when something doesn’t smell right, and the Federal Reserve reeks of fowl play.

Greed is disgusting at that level

#174 Mark on 01.14.15 at 12:59 am

“And where are your sources, Mark, outlining your claims about the CAD and its place holder in the future?”

I’m well aware of the propaganda that’s out there, but its not supported by evidence, ie: macroeconomic data, that would typically be associated with such a ‘recovery’. There are solid reasons why US Treasuries are trading at almost record high prices and almost record low yields. There are solid reasons why oil prices are collapsing. Nearly everything, with the exception of that single data point of GDP growth, which probably was conjured up out of thin air and will likely be revised down (as most BLS numbers inevitably are), points to the US economy weakening, not strengthening.

As for explaining deflation and what it does to a currency, its simple logic. There’s far more deflation in Canada’s future than there is in the USA’s future because Canada has been a prolific net exporter for so long now. The long term trend of chronic net importer currencies is weakening. The long term trend of net exporter currencies is strengthening. This is just basic Econ 101 stuff.

#175 Mel on 01.14.15 at 1:12 am

No distractions Garth. Let’s focus on why we are on this blog, to help us deal with our own Canadian screw ups! Let her find another bloggers. We are going to get really busy pretty soon. No time for fooling around.

Since we Canadians have learned nothing from the American housing blow up, because after all we are so… much smarter then them. Now we are going to show the world how to do it right when your own housing blows up. Stay tuned, here it comes!

#176 notagreaterfool on 01.14.15 at 1:15 am

Am I the only one who wishes to know more about the OSFI changes that went under the radar? Everyone is focussed on the blonde.

Where can I get more details on the OSFI measures? There must be brokers undercover as blog dogs…spill the beans please!

#177 Setting the Record Straight on 01.14.15 at 1:16 am

“127 Oil is going to $20 on 01.13.15 at 7:45 am
Oil is falling yet again Alberta making your costly and most dirty oil more worthless. Yes Alberta oil sands are almost worthless at current levels since profit is not possible. A tsunami of bankruptcies is going to hit Alberta HARD! Financial pain is coming.”

Why isn’t “dirty” US coal going to zero?

Such glee!

Why is it ok for China to build a coal fired plant every couple of weeks ?

#178 Saskatoon Ian on 01.14.15 at 1:16 am

It seems that I am clearly the minority, but I say no. You shouldn’t publish her client’s material because of the president that it could set. I am very curious as to what her client is wanting to say, because I like to hear from all sources, but I think it would be much fairer to have them post it somewhere else online and have you link to it if you feel it is relevant.

#179 Kris on 01.14.15 at 1:19 am

DELETED

#180 Obvious Truth on 01.14.15 at 1:20 am

A pretty face. Really. Blog is called the greater fool. Cute fools nobody here.

Sophie and her client can post for free in the comment section. They should be treated like everyone else. Sorry Sophie. No love on this blog. You have to earn your stripes here.

Your comments need to be peer reviewed in the dog pound of doomers and high net worth know it alls before you get a shot at the big leagues. Brains before beauty.

Let’s see what you’ve got. Big hat no cattle? Big gun no game? All Spanish no Finnish? Getting carried away.

Ole.

#181 Godth on 01.14.15 at 1:31 am

The Deep State Strategy: Burn Everyone Else’s Oil First, Leave Ours in the Ground
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.ca/2015/01/the-deep-state-strategy-burn-everyone.html

#182 Corban on 01.14.15 at 1:37 am

Publish the guest post; donate the money to a food hamper.

#183 nonplused on 01.14.15 at 1:38 am

And after reading the rest of the comments I agree Sophie could be working for a spam/click outfit. So if she does send an article of course the amazons will have to go through it and remove all the links and spyware. But if she sends something reasonable why not post it and throw the dogs a bone? Who knows maybe she’s sending something ridiculous but she might also want to write about the horrid state of real estate in the UK (where Mark got posted to try and save it.)

If it’s crap don’t post it.

I say don’t take any money, but giving the money as suggested to an animal shelter (not dog you animal racist!) would be ok in my books too.

#184 R on 01.14.15 at 1:41 am

So now we have to rely on Canada’s second most valuable export:

Justin Bieber.

#185 David on 01.14.15 at 1:58 am

Sophie is advocating paid journalism in the internet age?
Really Garth, refer that lady to the execrable HuffPo where journalists work for free.
I have spent my entire week spare time wracking my brain with what to with the extra $100 a month in gas savings. I am going to spend $50 per pay cheque on a global financial services mutual fund. Impossible to lose..there is always a bull market somewhere and it looks like India hit the pay dirt this month.

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/01/13/how-wall-street-profited-from-the-oil-gas-drilling-boom-thats-turning-into-a-disaster/

#186 Tom from Mississauga on 01.14.15 at 2:23 am

Copper joins the copper meltdown…

BTW, she had me at H

#187 Albusta rhymes on 01.14.15 at 2:30 am

There is no time like the present to turn to some good ‘ol fashion poetry. I dedicate this one to the most recent ‘successful’ RE offerors in Alberta and abroad:

Oompa doompa doopity doo
I’ ve got another riddle for you:

What do you get when you buy at the top?
Right at the start of the housing plop?

You won’t be waiting long to see
At the epicentre in Calgary

Your circumstance is most unfortunate
‘Cuz you hold the bag of Real estate (doo doo)

Oompa doompa doopity doo
I hope you are not the greater fool

…Doopity doo!

———————-

More updates from the industry: A major EPC firm responsible for one of the surviving mega projects not on ‘hold’ status had been outsourcing much of its mechanical work to their office in Ontario…until this month when they brought the work back to their Edmonton office and perhaps left their eastern counterparts high and dry. As Garth has mentioned, the oil slowdown here affects all of Canada. Operations service contracts still in effect for 2015/16 with major oil players within our company aren’t under threat of cancellation, but we are already facing pressure to reduce costs- Not really unexpected. Luckily my finances can handle a 10-20% pay cut, if necessary. Time to batten down the hatches!

And now, fellow Albertans, join with me in supplication:

Oh God, grant us another oil boom this day,
And I promise not to piss it all away.
Seriously, not this time.
And thus, concludes this silly rhyme.

#188 Turtle on 01.14.15 at 2:30 am

Counter offer:
1. They make a donation to homeLESS shelter BEFORE you even consider to deal with them.
2. Smoking Man meets the girl to see whatsup.
3. You tell us the update and we discuss.

#189 ozy - throw her to the blog dogs ;) on 01.14.15 at 2:44 am

I’d say: throw her to the blog dogs, haha

I think it would be fun…. of course if the article is not ridicule enough in the first place

at least she won’t stalk you again anytime sooon…

HEY, WAIT! – why is she emailing her face … is this a mascara contest and I wasn’t invited??? come-on… we expect a lot of more manners in here….. OK. tell her we need a professional body shot…. no compromises. Duh.

And No Kindergarten-level article.

And full disclosure who REALLY worked on that… TROJAN HORSE

CHARGE 100,000.00 see if they have money or not

#190 palebird on 01.14.15 at 3:12 am

154 ” Plus there will be a huge economic benefit to the rest of Canada if oil prices stay low for an extended period of time. This may even push prices higher in TO and YVR.”
Don’t think so. That is really being played up and it just does not fit. The whole of Canada will suffer. Unfortunately the tar sands and the gas fields were keeping everyone’s head above water. Now it is over for the tar sands this time around. Gas is still a player though. Slide dollar slide….

#191 Spaccone on 01.14.15 at 3:18 am

Maybe I’m missing something, did the BoC foresee the 2 for 1 oil special? If not, how can they now claim foresight of where oil prices will be for a significant period.

#192 mousy on 01.14.15 at 3:31 am

I’m changing my name to Sophie and enclosing my new picture with accounts receivable reminder letters.

#193 Millenial on 01.14.15 at 7:22 am

Hey Garth,
I’m not suggesting that Sophie is unattractive, but I wouldn’t conclude that she’s hot from the picture she sent you. It’s black and white, her head is tilted and she’s looking down, hair is sorta in the way a little. You could take a bunch of pictures of an average girl and get some ‘wow’ pics with lighting and stuff. I think if you saw Sophie on the street irl I doubt she’d turn your head.

By the way, did you get a Christmas card from Erin Bury this year?

#194 sierts on 01.14.15 at 7:37 am

Garth,
living in southamerica, i got just one viewpoint to this Sophie’s proposition:

corruption is like pregnantcy. it is yes or no.
no in betweens.

if they get the wedge in, by paying you… they will pay you again. for worse things.

#195 juno on 01.14.15 at 7:59 am

Alberta premier

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/prentice+pans+talk+alberta+recession+calls+suggestion/10726116/story.html

#196 I'm stupid on 01.14.15 at 8:14 am

I respect you immensely Mr. Turner. Your integrity is a breath of fresh air. You could sell advertising here and probably make a bundle but you would rather keep this blog as a place where freedom of speech, expression and different views can be exchanged to make the lives of Canadians better.

#197 Harbour on 01.14.15 at 8:28 am

#187 Spaccone on 01.14.15 at 3:18 am
Maybe I’m missing something, did the BoC foresee the 2 for 1 oil special? If not, how can they now claim foresight of where oil prices will be for a significant period.

……………………………………………………………………….

Nobody knows… Goldman Sachs was saying $200 oil and now they say $35 oil
Euro scientists were saying the world would run out of oil and now we have an oil glut

#198 I'm stupid on 01.14.15 at 8:29 am

“Canadian housing needs a CATALYST with a CAPITAL C to start the great reversion. Oil prices may be the BIG C for Alberta housing but not for Canadian housing. “

That “catalyst” happened in 2013, with F’s Budget 2013 and changes to CMHC subprime mortgage insurance introduced. House prices have been falling ever since in most major Canadian cities.

The top of the US housing market, in 2005-2006, wasn’t marked with a big bang either. It was marked by the subprime lenders simply cutting off lending expansion. Much like, in Canada, the 2013 top was marked by the government’s refusal to expand subprime credit to the sector by holding the CMHC limit at $600B.

The reason people have trouble seeing a correction in housing is because data is so slow to come out. By the time the average person realizes what’s going on it’s too late. Not to mention when people speak about “making money” on Realestate they never deduct the true costs, so the numbers are exaggerated.

#199 fancy_pants on 01.14.15 at 8:42 am

power tool for the ankle. nice front.

Does Sophie come with the pussycats? if so it screams discounted price. personally, I would avoid such seductive charm. full in person interview may be required

ps, if she works for these lemmings don’t give her an inch…
http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/oil-prices-will-impact-real-estate-in-2015-royal-lepage-1.2187605

#200 maxx on 01.14.15 at 9:35 am

#13 robert on 01.13.15 at 8:27 pm

“Let them build their own blog…with all the credibility that they deserve….zero !”

I’m with you….however, we could all revert to being feral and enjoy a free meal!

#201 OMG on 01.14.15 at 10:12 am

#123 Smoking Man on 01.13.15 at 10:34 pm
Sophie, I have a book release this December, I read your website. I will hire you for your service, provided it’s reasonable. I want more than 33 sales the day I launch it.
Click on my name, takes you to my blog. Contact me there.
I’m serious.. Do you offer, Facebook and Twitter exposure.. That would be cool too.
………………………………………………………………….

If Sophie has a brain and I’m sure she does she should go to Smoking Mans blog site. I guarantee unless she is insane or wearing a tin foil hat she will run away from it hard and fast.
33 sales per day, ha ? Smoking Man what are you smoking?

#202 Kilt on 01.14.15 at 10:30 am

You gotta love the realtors.
http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/oil-prices-impacting-calgary-housing-market-1.2187793

30% pullback in spending, already laying off people, but house prices are gonna keep going up.

Kilt.

#203 Dadeedum on 01.14.15 at 10:30 am

#174 MARK “…its simple logic. There’s far more deflation in Canada’s future than there is in the USA’s future because Canada has been a prolific net exporter for so long now.”

Thank you Mark. Some of us were concerned that the 15% (And counting) fall in the Canadian dollar vs it’s major trading partner might result in inflation. And I’m personally excited that unlike my economic 101 professor, that you seem to be certain that low energy costs (Now with a hard cost cap by fracking wells) will somehow result in overall reduced aggregate demand. I’m assuming that increased AD generally leads to inflation, but let me know if that’s no longer true either.

#204 Leo Tolstoy on 01.14.15 at 10:32 am

When the BoC drop rates, it should put more downward pressure on the Canadian dollar.

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/01/14/markets-eye-bank-of-canada-rate-cut-for-first-time-as-oil-rout-damage-deepens/

If the BoC drops rates we are in far more trouble. — Garth

#205 Franco on 01.14.15 at 10:36 am

If a major real estate correction happens in some parts, it is not because of the reason people thought it would be.
It seems that we are getting whacked with a low dollar and low oil price. It is sad that many Canadians will come to the realization that Canada is only a resource based economy and as resources go, so does the CA dollar and probably will also hit housing. I am not sure how people hoping for a crash think that it will be good for us?

#206 Daisy Mae on 01.14.15 at 10:42 am

#55 Jose: “Unfortunately Poloz was hand picked by F more for his ability to tow the party line rather than his prowess as an economist.”

*****************

“….handpicked by F”? No decisions are made without Harpers’ approval.

#207 Victor V on 01.14.15 at 10:51 am

Decline in oil price to impact real estate in 2015, according to Royal LePage

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/decline-oil-price-impact-real-estate-2015-according-110008129.html

“Ultimately the biggest threat to the Canadian housing market is a decline in consumer confidence, which could result from worsened employment prospects or decreased purchasing power, be it real or perceived,” president and chief executive Phil Soper said in a statement.

#208 liquidincalgary on 01.14.15 at 11:01 am

R on 01.14.15 at 1:41 am

So now we have to rely on Canada’s second most valuable export:

Justin Bieber.

=========================================

bieber??

it was that great little alberta band that was voted ‘best band of the decade’ (billboard magazine)….

Nickelback!!

#209 Grantmi on 01.14.15 at 11:08 am

LOL RL still expects RE prices to GO UP!!! These Mother-Frackers have no shame.

House prices gains are likely to slow this year, but still average about 2.9 per cent across Canada, says realtor Royal LePage in its annual house price survey and market forecast released Wednesday.

That would bring the average price of a resale home to $419,318, up from $407,500 in 2014.

http://on.thestar.com/1C6IP0P

#210 Rational Optimist on 01.14.15 at 11:22 am

You have to let this one down gently, and simply explain that anyone who would cold call an offer like this could not afford it.

This blog generates hundreds of comments a day from amongst a vast pool of high-net-worth, high-earning, predominantly young people who self-evidently comprise some of the greatest thinkers of their generation. Access to this elite group of blog dogs would cost a fortune for anyone who thought it could just be bought.

#211 Obvious Truth on 01.14.15 at 11:30 am

I’m afraid the money has spoken. Lower rates and dollar in Canada. There’s nobody going to stop it.

Part of the banking story in Canada is that they were all probably wrong footed last year. Add oil, housing and lower net interest and its a disaster.

It’s amazing how housing just flipped. Not even an arguement about it anymore. As for garths ofsi news. Many banks had already moved to 60% loan to value. Had a banker admit last week that higher end homes are selling for less than the outstanding mortgages. Some job losses and a few divorces will accelerate this trend.

What if gold is the best performer in Canada next year?

#212 Ferrari321 on 01.14.15 at 11:32 am

FWIW – this is the internet btw … “she” could very well be a “he” … just saying

#213 waiting on the westcoast on 01.14.15 at 11:33 am

Blomberg says that burger flippers move over… More high paying jobs being created in US.

http://tinyurl.com/kyw3bkf

#214 fancy_pants on 01.14.15 at 11:44 am

#204 Leo Tolstoy on 01.14.15 at 10:32 am

yikes!!! I hope not!

If the neanderthals lower rates, then burn all those old macro economics textbooks – they no longer apply. Nuts if they even entertain the idea. But it wouldn’t surprise me.

They created a perfect environment for this RE bubble to grow, all the while patting each other on the back for averting the crisis and fist pumping the greatness of Canada’s financial sector.

now the inflated RE prices are the elephant in the room nobody is ignoring anymore. but really I shudder at the thought … feed it more to ensure it doesn’t move and drop a deuce? geez, eventually it will crap – the longer it holds, the larger the mess. perfect plan if you are dropping in the polls – leave it for the next party to deal with.

If they lower rates it spells only one other option: QE again. I guess we can welcome the new debt fueled economy to stay. Buy now or forever be priced out? I’m beginning to wonder. They will just inflate the money supply to keep this going. given they can’t manage their own deficits/debt it makes sense.

never bet against the ones who make the rules.

#215 maxx on 01.14.15 at 11:47 am

#4 TurnerNation on 01.13.15 at 8:23 pm

Where is Ma and Pa Investor. Gonna be a tough sell RSP season.

Yup….and [email protected] tells me that people are sucking their TFSAs dry.

#216 JuliaS on 01.14.15 at 12:01 pm

Sophie Jade Eagan – contributor at “HomeHipster” online magazine and “Lucky”.

Feel free to familiarize yourselves with the kind of material she writes:

http://contributors.luckymag.com/user/sophie-jade-eagan

#217 The American on 01.14.15 at 12:01 pm

At #174: Mark, you’re doing your best to dance around the question. It doesn’t work on this side of the fence. How about you, once again, provide your source. I provided sources, charts, opinions of senior economists (who must have skipped econ 101 LMFAO). You’re full of drivel. So, let me educate you in some basic “econ 101.”

#203 Dadeedum on 01.14.15 at 10:30 am
#174 MARK “…its simple logic. There’s far more deflation in Canada’s future than there is in the USA’s future because Canada has been a prolific net exporter for so long now.”

The CAD has lost about 16% of its value in a rapid period. Its slide is indeed expected to continue, especially as oil prices continue to slide. Sliding oil prices yield increased demand and consumption, primarily in the one country that loves it the most, the U.S.A. The same country that is now the world’s largest oil producer, trumping Russia and Saudi Arabia. This increased demand ultimately leads to inflation. The CAD is in for a long punching, as are the Canadian banks, Canadian real estate, Canadian jobs numbers, and Canadian consumer indebtedness and ability to repay it. You must have attended Econ 101 at one of those European “universities.”

#218 Josh in Calgary on 01.14.15 at 12:20 pm

#197 Harbour,
“Nobody knows… Goldman Sachs was saying $200 oil and now they say $35 oil
Euro scientists were saying the world would run out of oil and now we have an oil glut”

Oh, you thought they were actually trying to predict the future? When they say $200/bbl oil they are likely taking a massive short position. Now that they’re “calling” for $35/bbl oil they’re going all-in long. You don’t become one of the richest evil organizations on the planet by giving advice away for free (sorry Garth).

#219 Polozified on 01.14.15 at 12:24 pm

Charge her your hourly rate * the estimated amount of time it will take you to reply to all the folks in the comment section that day.

Bada-bing

#220 Victor V on 01.14.15 at 12:29 pm

The Myth of the Property Ladder (A Warning to Young Canadians)

http://hardcorevalueblog.blogspot.ca/2015/01/the-myth-of-property-ladder-warning-to.html

Real Estate for most young Canadians is a leveraged investment. Well not just leveraged, but very leveraged. My generation is quick to scoff at the executives from the financial crisis who ran investment banks at sky high debt to equity ratio’s of 20:1+. Yet, they think nothing of putting 5% down on a house (which of course is the exact same amount of leverage). A measly 5% drop in house prices and you are wiped out. That’s if you can even put 5% down in the first place. Many can’t. This is where the parents step in.

Beyond the emotional push to buy a first house with the common (yet ridiculous argument) of “why pay somebody else’s rent?” I have seen many of my friends’ parents routinely gift the 5-20% of the down payment of their first house. No, they are not just giving them free money but rather giving them the money on the condition of a house purchase (and saddling them with massive mortgage debt). It’s kind of a like a drug dealer offering free cocaine but only once you get addicted. It’s a terrible system so why do parents do it?

#221 Panhead on 01.14.15 at 12:39 pm

Let Dorothy decide …

#222 miketheengineer on 01.14.15 at 12:43 pm

Garth et al:

Sorry to hear about the 1000 layoffs at Suncor…been unemployed…not fun. Say some prayers for those families, they are going to need them, cause hardship is coming for some of them.

What to do about this mess. I listened to a program where they were interviewing a guy named Lindsey Williams…sorry no link, and this guy does not give interviews anymore.

What I got was this (1) Pay down debt, ie Credit Cards (2) Payoff your home, or sell it and buy something where you own it outright. See he indicated that there was going to be deflation, followed by crippling inflation.

Looks like the next recession is “on” Garth…!

#223 Rusty Venture on 01.14.15 at 1:10 pm

So, did Royal LePage’s report factor in all the eastern bums and creeps moving back to Toronto?

#224 not 1st on 01.14.15 at 1:12 pm

Garth, just a little friendly advice. The US economy cannot be analyzed from some reports and action on wall street. It has to be seen from the ground. Maybe you can take your harley across the midwest this summer because you are reading the tea leaves out there.

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/01/14/global-markets-dive-after-world-bank-cuts-growth-forecasts/

The oil price drop is a canary for economic growth and demand which are on the wane everywhere including the US. They are not immune. QE 4 is on tap.

#225 Butch on 01.14.15 at 1:14 pm

Comment on this nonsense Garth? Bank of Canada to CUT rates?

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/01/14/markets-eye-bank-of-canada-rate-cut-for-first-time-as-oil-rout-damage-deepens/

#226 paulthedesigner on 01.14.15 at 1:18 pm

garth, with the oil prices plunging, you think they will keep the interest rates low this year? will we see 20 year amortization?

#227 Leo Tolstoy on 01.14.15 at 1:19 pm

If the BoC drops rates we are in far more trouble. — Garth

Could you expand on why? Wouldn’t this just help juice the economy at the expense of the Canadian dollar?

#228 Wrong again Garth on 01.14.15 at 1:24 pm

you said “(even if the car company wants just 1%) ” …thats not revolving credit

Card company. — Garth

#229 Mike S on 01.14.15 at 1:27 pm

Any link to the OSFI changes, in details?

#230 bdy sktrn on 01.14.15 at 1:29 pm

CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No
1.81 Down 0.08(4.39%)
—————————–
Rates low forever!

Money stays cheap, big borrowers have no stress.
No confidence in the us numbers it seems.

#231 Right again Garth.... on 01.14.15 at 2:00 pm

Smoking man gave me some weird grass last night, sorry Garth

#232 Stanley McGan on 01.14.15 at 2:00 pm

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/video/plunging-oil-dragging-down-dollar-000415679.html

Tue, Jan 13: The fall of oil has also dragged our dollar to 83 cents against the U.S.dollar. Some think it’ll slip into the 70s. As Robin Gill reports, it could put the brakes on an expected interest rate hike

so Ca dollar dives and as a result there would be NO interest rate increases.

Cheers savers and retirees, enjoy the new and higher prices of everything imported at the stores.

Deflation? Poloz will make sure it does not happen here.

#233 calgaryPhantom on 01.14.15 at 2:02 pm

Well, after 7 years of daily blogging. Finally you got an email from a hot babe. Totally Worth IT!!

#234 Sheane Wallace on 01.14.15 at 2:05 pm

#225 Butch on 01.14.15 at 1:14 pm
Comment on this nonsense Garth? Bank of Canada to CUT rates?

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/01/14/markets-eye-bank-of-canada-rate-cut-for-first-time-as-oil-rout-damage-deepens/
——————————
Non sense?

It makes the perfect sense, they want cheer dollar,

If there was no interest rate suppression (aka stealing from your savings) interest rates on Ca dolalr could have been in double digits already.

Loonie dove 15 % in the last 6 months! And it is just starting.

Savings will be burned and then?…

#235 Mark on 01.14.15 at 2:05 pm

“And I’m personally excited that unlike my economic 101 professor, that you seem to be certain that low energy costs (Now with a hard cost cap by fracking wells) will somehow result in overall reduced aggregate demand. I’m assuming that increased AD generally leads to inflation, but let me know if that’s no longer true either.”

Considering that the O&G sector, and RE have both been the major growth drivers of the economy on both sides of the border, reduced prices for the end-product, and a collapse of activity on the sector is, of course, going to reduce demand across the entire economy.

Between O&G, and RE’s deflation, what’s Canada looking at? 10-20% shaved off of its GDP? That’s profoundly deflationary. Ontarians saving a bit on gas isn’t going to make up for that by any stretch of the imagination.

I can appreciate that your Econ professor doesn’t know much about deflation — not many do. But we seem to be entering a rather perfect storm for a heck of a lot of it, especially as credit reverts from being unusually available and cheap, to being unusually unavailable, and expensive.

#236 Mark on 01.14.15 at 2:07 pm

“Comment on this nonsense Garth? Bank of Canada to CUT rates?”

I’ve been saying it for the past year or two, the BoC is way, way “behind the curve” on lowering policy rates to reflect the very weak state of the Canadian economy. The recent freak-out is yet another example. The bond market is now solidly implying that the BoC will be taking policy action in the not-so-distant future. Calls 2 years ago for rising rates were completely wrong as Canada suffers poor capacity utilization outside of very specific sectors, and extremely high unemployment, particularly of high-end professionals.

#237 Sheane Wallace on 01.14.15 at 2:08 pm

unable to rase rates due to record debt, currency collapsing,. oil collapsing, import getting more expensive, …. the perfect storm despite the advanced warning and the chance to learn from our neighbours south.

This is either unbelivable incompetence or ourtight criminal activity that some officials would need to answer for.

#238 Mark on 01.14.15 at 2:11 pm

“If there was no interest rate suppression (aka stealing from your savings) interest rates on Ca dolalr could have been in double digits already.”

Are you kidding? Interest rates can never sustainably be, over the long term, higher than the rate of a nation’s economic growth. They must be lower than the rate of economic growth as, over the long term, equity owners and entrepreneurs need to be provided with a risk premium.

Canada’s economy, at best, can only sustainably grow at 3-5% nominal per year, or 2-3% real per year. Which means, at best, with a 2% inflation environment, rates of 3-4% are likely all that are sustainable. Since rates have been unusually high for the past 35 years relative to economic growth, rates must be unusually low for a considerable period going forward. Even 1% is way too high of a BoC policy rate at this point given that it is likely that the economy is now in recession, and deflation is at a high risk of setting in.

#239 Sheane Wallace on 01.14.15 at 2:11 pm

#235 Mark

Deflationary?

Just open you eyes and see the higher prices of food, clothes, cars, everything imported.
Loonie going down the drain in fast motion.

There is unbelivable inflation coming and this is juct the beggining. The clown will cut interest rates.. Run far and away…

#240 Sheane Wallace on 01.14.15 at 2:17 pm

I wrote the dollar was going to sink few months ago when it was above .94 cents. Now is approaching fast 83… and counting… And there would be interest rate cut? Excuse me?

Any responsible central banker would bump interest rates with 2-3 basis points and that imemditely!
Lonnie is sinking faster than the Yen lately, Unbelievable!

#241 TurnerNation on 01.14.15 at 2:19 pm

250th? Gee where is the ‘Stocks are on sale’ posting crew. Those of ‘ Beep beep Back up the truck and load up’ faith.
Boosterish bunch.

#242 bewaretheBWpics.. on 01.14.15 at 2:30 pm

I know very many soccer moms on facebook who have spent long hours generating a picture such as the one in your article. It took them hours to crop and process the photo in such a way as they look amazing. I am here to tell you that these people in real life are not as amazing looking as a grainy black and white facebook picture would make you out to believe!

Can’t trust anyone on the internet!

#243 Sheane Wallace on 01.14.15 at 2:38 pm

#238 Mark

Are you plain stupid or just kidding?
Greece is in a depression, has decline in GDP and just look at their bonds interest rates, they should be negative according to you.

US and Canada in the 80-es (if you were born then you would remember) had interest rate of 18-20 % + wih no growth at all.

Interest rates are determiend by the bond market and when elected dilletants start messing with suppressing these rates just watch out, Fireworks are coming.

If you purpose in life is to serve as comic releif keep doing what you are doing, you are doing it well.

#244 Mark on 01.14.15 at 2:40 pm

“Sliding oil prices yield increased demand and consumption,”

Eventually. But right now, they’re a symptom of decreased demand and decreased consumption. ie: the worldwide economy is contracting/slowing.


primarily in the one country that loves it the most, the U.S.A. The same country that is now the world’s largest oil producer, trumping Russia and Saudi Arabia.

For how much longer, who knows? Most incremental US oil production capacity is uneconomic at these levels, and is subject to very rapid rates of depletion.

This is why the US will likely face inflation far before Canada gets out of its deflation, and hence, the imbalance between US inflation, and CAD$ deflation will drive the CAD$ much higher.

In the short term, the speculators can push currencies around though, even in completely un-natural directions, which is what we’re seeing at the moment.


This increased demand ultimately leads to inflation. “

Eventually. Usually significant deflationary periods are proceeded by significant inflationary periods, and vice versa. That is to say, the economy is cyclical.

#245 Calgary Oil Person on 01.14.15 at 2:41 pm

Hey garth, ugh I have to change my commenter name now as if someone finds out I’m posting here I could get let go.

Anyways, things are grim here at oil and gas co. We have another round of layoffs coming for sure, but our fixed costs are crazy high, as people have been charging whatever they want for so long, its crazy. Our building alone is 40kish a month, its not even that big, and located near the airport. They’ve been gouging places here for so long, we’re so screwed. I think the parents company has already been nosing around our asset worth in preperation of shutting this place down and dividing up the assets and few people left with jobs.

I knew this when I took this job this kind of thing could happen right? But it still sucks, won’t be anymore jobs to get around here when we do find the doors chained up. Irony of course is that houses will become affordable but without a job on one income we won’t be able to afford it anyways. Maybe time to move back to Ontario or check out the southern US, looks in good shape there.

Keep up the good work, its only the middle of January and faces are dark, imagine next month, sigh!

#246 Mark on 01.14.15 at 2:46 pm

“Interest rates are determiend by the bond market and when elected dilletants start messing with suppressing these rates just watch out, Fireworks are coming.”

But rates aren’t being suppressed by the BoC. If anything, they’re being pushed artificially high at the moment. Especially as it is obvious that unemployment is high, and price growth practically non-existent.

“Any responsible central banker would bump interest rates with 2-3 basis points and that imemditely!”

Are you kidding? Sending a good swath of the borrowers into default, and attempting to suppress demand when insufficient demand already exists, is no way to run a central bank. Besides, the low CAD$ probably won’t be with us for much longer.

#247 Sheane Wallace on 01.14.15 at 2:46 pm

Holly cow, that is a free fall!

It could be in the 82’s handle by the end of the day. Falling against USD, Euro(?!?), Yen(?!?, they have the largest QE), GBP.

#248 Sheane Wallace on 01.14.15 at 2:48 pm

BTW, my portfolio goes up (in CA dollar) despite stock markets decline today, so I am somehow winning accoring to the tax man.

#249 Mark on 01.14.15 at 2:49 pm


Just open you eyes and see the higher prices of food, clothes, cars, everything imported.

Not seeing higher food prices, clothes are cheaper than ever, as are cars. Imported stuff is getting cheaper or remaining stable, despite the weaker CAD$, because there is very little demand either in Canada, or around the world.

Cars especially, their prices have been declining for many years now. The only salvation of the auto vendors has been the bundling of additional features to at least create some sort of semblance of price stability. But worldwide, there is a huge glut of auto manufacturing capacity, which means that cars are a dime a dozen.

#250 not 1st on 01.14.15 at 2:57 pm

People really need to get over their shock that the BofC might lower rates.

haven’t you learned that countries will do whatever it takes to keep the current state of affairs going through the current election and political cycle. The US is probably already giving stealth QE to Europe and Japan. They will sacrifice 100 generations just to save this one and we elect them in every time to do it. I weep for the children of the world because we have sold them short big time.

#251 Sheane Wallace on 01.14.15 at 3:12 pm

The guy:
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/profile/timothy-lane/
(very accomplished fellow, ….he served for 20 years on the staff of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington, DC. During that period, he held a series of positions with a combination of analytical, policy, and managerial responsibilities, and contributed to the IMF’s work on a number of countries… )

said they have the tools to react:
http://business.financialpost.com/2015/01/14/markets-eye-bank-of-canada-rate-cut-for-first-time-as-oil-rout-damage-deepens/

It seems interest rates cut is really in the cards. Garth, your comment?

#252 Bottoms_Up on 01.14.15 at 3:19 pm

#220 Victor V on 01.14.15 at 12:29 pm
—————————————-
5% down is not ideal, but a 5% drop in prices does not ‘wipe [someone] out’. It wipes out their current equity, and means they may owe slightly more than the house is worth.

And what happens from there? They continue to make payments, build equity, and eventually prices recover (worst-case scenario for Toronto to date has been 12 years?).

So, no one is ‘wiped out’. The wipe out happens when they go bankrupt.

#253 Mark on 01.14.15 at 3:24 pm

“Are you plain stupid or just kidding?
Greece is in a depression, has decline in GDP and just look at their bonds interest rates, they should be negative according to you.”

Greece is a chronic net importer. Of course their currency (ie: their bonds, since their ‘currency’ is the Euro) is weakening. Likewise, Germany is a chronic net exporter, and German bond yields are in fact negative.

Eventually Germany will reach an apex of strength and decline. And Greece will reach a bottom through austerity and start rising. You can sort of see that happening in this chart:

http://www.bruegel.org/uploads/RTEmagicC_131115_trade.jpg.jpg

Canada is to Germany, as the United States is to Greece. Except that, in the very short term, the USD$ has some strength because of a rather old-fashioned ‘flight’ to it, being the so-called ‘reserve’ currency. However, there will be a point at which there is a revulsion to the currency, especially as holders of USD$ start to trade them in for goods and services and find that the United States doesn’t really have a strong productive capability relative to debt outstanding.

#254 jess on 01.14.15 at 3:26 pm

outsourcing to “dialogue engines”

==============

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Oct 30, 2013 – … debt collecting machine that is the envy of the industry. The company’s success lies in its superior use of technology and outsourcing, chiefly
“He has a very unusual combination of capabilities,” says billionaire investor Wilbur Ross, who joined Erbey on the board of Ocwen after it bought a company called Homeward Residential for $750 million in cash and stock from him last year

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/32592-ocwen-stock-eviscerated-by-threat-of-california-license-suspension

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wilbur-ross-elected-as-vice-chairman-of-bank-of-cyprus-2014-11-21

============
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#255 Bottoms_Up on 01.14.15 at 3:30 pm

#212 Ferrari321 on 01.14.15 at 11:32 am
——————————————–
and could you imagine, for 7 years Garth’s been living behind a slab of drywall in Sophie’s house, and all along it’s been Sophie writing the Greaterfool blog….

#256 Macrath on 01.14.15 at 3:35 pm

As economy drops, Calgary police investigate rise in theft of costly sex toys

http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/01/14/as-economy-drops-calgary-police-investigate-rise-in-theft-of-costly-sex-toys/

#257 Bottoms_Up on 01.14.15 at 3:36 pm

#209 Grantmi on 01.14.15 at 11:08 am
—————————————-
You must remember the average tells you nothing when it’s driven by 2 markets (volume+price in Toronto, and prices in Vancouver).

Strip out those markets and let’s see the stats. Or better yet, report the median prices, and break that price out for type of dwelling per town and city.

Had a friend buy in a small Ontario town (population=20,000) in 2007 (3 bed, 2 bath, nice backyard, quiet neighbourhood)…nothing bad economically happened in that town…they made $0 after selling it in 2012. So in 5 years, where the Canadian average was up significantly, prices in this town were actually flat.

#258 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 01.14.15 at 3:40 pm

#223 Rusty Venture on 01.14.15 at 1:10 pm

So, did Royal LePage’s report factor in all the eastern bums and creeps moving back to Toronto?
___________________________________________

At least the eastern bums will help prop up the real estate market. They gotta live somewhere!
Perhaps down by Smoking Man in Long Branch?
they can all meet at South side Johnny’s Bar.

#259 Incubus on 01.14.15 at 3:43 pm

@Sheane Wallace

You can not have inflation if income do not increase.
The goods will stay on the shelves.

The bank of canada will have to cut the interest rate close to 0%.

A weak loonie will help the oil industries and exportation of merchandise.

#260 Industrial Guy on 01.14.15 at 4:10 pm

“Should I do it? How much should I quote? Will it be enough to hire a proofreader? Start a blog dog humane society? Get a Black&Decker power drill to adjust my ankle? Help me out here.”

Honesty? Screw em ….

It’s an interesting conundrum sir. A proof reader? Are the Amazons in revolt? Have they joined UNIFOR?

Welcome to the world of Brand Journalism.

I suspect everyone knows that this blog has ties to your books and financial services business. You mention them often, it’s out there and nothing is hidden.

The truth is …. “news” what you can afford it to be. You may reject her offer outright, but there are many who would not be so quick to say no. Some bloggers have become quite wealthy doing exactly what she is asking.

The less the public is aware of … the better for “Sophie”‘s client. I like how she says, “The article will NOT be advertising anything at all.” You’re so right!!! It’s a highly crafted piece that smells like candy but really is poison.

This is one young lady who clearly embraces the motto “ignorance is bliss”. Cha-Ching!!!!

There’s a good piece in the Globe about it. Makes you question everything you read. In a sinister way, that works perfectly for people like “Sophie”. If you question everything. who can you trust?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/books-and-media/is-that-an-ad-or-a-news-story-and-does-it-matter-which/article4461877/?page=all

#261 Mark on 01.14.15 at 4:21 pm

“And what happens from there? They continue to make payments, build equity, and eventually prices recover (worst-case scenario for Toronto to date has been 12 years?).”

But the rates as applicable to their specific mortgage are likely to rise on account of increased risk/decreased creditworthiness (obvious people with negative equity are not very creditworthy!!!), making extrication from negative equity very difficult. Or their income deflates. As seen in the United States circa 2008-present, it is very uncommon for people in negative equity to ever relieve themselves of such, unless they declare bankruptcy and start over.

Canadians in negative equity are going to feel very real pain. Perhaps they’ll end up being 55-year-olds without any retirement savings (very common). Their kids probably won’t have well funded RESPs. The consequences of making a bad investment in overpriced housing most certainly cannot be covered up by the BoC/GoC/CMHC over the long term.

#262 For those about to flop... on 01.14.15 at 4:35 pm

Re 260 industrial guy….
I believe someone has coined the phrase/ word
“Advertorial”to sum up this part news story ,part advertising way of journalism.
Ahhhh the modern world…..so classy!

#263 Victor V on 01.14.15 at 4:44 pm

#252 Bottoms_Up on 01.14.15 at 3:19 pm

#220 Victor V on 01.14.15 at 12:29 pm
—————————————-
5% down is not ideal, but a 5% drop in prices does not ‘wipe [someone] out’. It wipes out their current equity, and means they may owe slightly more than the house is worth.

And what happens from there? They continue to make payments, build equity, and eventually prices recover (worst-case scenario for Toronto to date has been 12 years?).

So, no one is ‘wiped out’. The wipe out happens when they go bankrupt.

================================
================================

What happens when it’s time to renew the mortgage and the equity has been eroded?

What happens if the homeowner also has a maxed out HELOC?

#264 Sam on 01.14.15 at 4:44 pm

Five ways to instantly become richer from Tony Robbins
http://business.financialpost.com/2015/01/13/five-ways-to-instantly-become-richer-from-tony-robbins/

#265 bdy sktrn on 01.14.15 at 4:47 pm

bbry going vertical 20% in seconds

#266 economictsunami on 01.14.15 at 4:56 pm

Let’s take a look @ Consumer Spending, Dr Copper, the Global Economy & the Long Bond.

3 red flags…

http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/14/news/economy/economy-red-flags/index.html?iid=Lead

The US Long Bond:

http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/14/news/economy/economy-red-flags/index.html?iid=Lead

Equity markets have only recently got the picture that their narratives are Swiss Cheese.

Would want to spook the sideline Muppet Money now would they?…

#267 Spaccone on 01.14.15 at 4:57 pm

Female relatives and acquaintances are exactly what made me sick of FB. The non-stop selfies and photos is just too much. They do not need to do any or much photoshop, just leave a little or a lot up to the imagination (ie distant/ blurry, highly cropped) and mens’ imaginations (esp. in hormone-filled phase) will fill in the missing details to a far more flattering extent.

#268 economictsunami on 01.14.15 at 4:57 pm

Apologies the Long Bond story can be found here:

http://www.businessinsider.com/30-year-treasury-yield-falling-2015-1

#269 economictsunami on 01.14.15 at 5:01 pm

Long Bonds:

http://www.businessinsider.com/30-year-treasury-yield-falling-2015-1

#270 José on 01.14.15 at 5:10 pm

Hey Garth,

I know that imploding real estae prices in Alberts is in your wheelhouse, but why don’t you adress what falling oil, copper, treasury yields and a rising dollar might mean for US stocks going forward. I think it’s time to admit it’s a real concern.

It’s becoming a theme on wall street just like falling oil was in the fall.

#271 Sheane Wallace on 01.14.15 at 5:10 pm

259Incubus on 01.14.15 at 3:43 pm
@Sheane Wallace

You can not have inflation if income do not increase.
The goods will stay on the shelves.
The bank of canada will have to cut the interest rate close to 0%.
A weak loonie will help the oil industries and exportation of merchandise
————————-
Wrong.

We live in a global world with global demand for food and goods, as our currency declines the cost of import increases.

Whatever you do not import and can’t export might decline, but there is not much of that (except housing and services, but not many.).

There was an article on yahoo on prices of food, cars, clothes already increasing with much more to come so I don’t really understand the statements from Mark:
at #253Mark

Here are some more:
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/canadian-dollar-slump-hikes-cost-100000261.html

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/canadian-dollar-slump-hikes-cost-100000261.html

Mark, read, take notes and stop talking nonsense.

Which part of: We live in a global economy don’t you understand?

And stop talking about Europe, Germany and Greece when it is obvious you have never been there.
Verstehen Sie bitte?

#272 Dogman01 on 01.14.15 at 5:11 pm

Sell Canada; go USA

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/01/14/sell-canada-investors-bet-against-loonie-bank-stocks-as-oil-collapses/

I heard it here first quite some time ago on GF.

Could not make money reading the MSM as it is is too late.

#273 Sheane Wallace on 01.14.15 at 5:20 pm

BTW we are not even factoring the fallout from the coming deflation of the housing bubble and it’s impact on the currency and prices.

Mark, how would BOC react to compensate decline in housing activities which is significant part of GDP? By more credit?

We are already over leveraged and up to the eyeballs in debt.

I would be very, very worried when this starts unraveling as we can’t really increase credit more, we are already at peak credit.

We better buy some helicopters from uncle Ben while still cheap.

We already see inflation in action and some more building up but our correction has not even started.

When it starts…

#274 reasonfirst on 01.14.15 at 5:37 pm

Ask them to write it, don’t charge and post it as you might post a readers comments – bookended, sliced and diced by your own commentary.

#275 Greg on 01.14.15 at 5:40 pm

Just remember that profile pics and reality are often quite different. Sophie may not be what you expect.

#276 Mark on 01.14.15 at 5:48 pm

“Mark, read, take notes and stop talking nonsense.”

I’m not talking any nonsense. Prices on the stuff that people actually buy are declining faster (in USD$) than the CAD$ is losing value. Hence, purchasing power is actually remaining constant or growing. As the CAD$ stops going down, this will be very apparent.

The only ‘nonsense’ is thinking that prices in USD$ are fixed, and the CAD$ is merely falling against such. Which certainly isn’t true.

#277 Happy Renting on 01.14.15 at 5:50 pm

#256 Macrath on 01.14.15 at 3:35 pm
As economy drops, Calgary police investigate rise in theft of costly sex toys

http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/01/14/as-economy-drops-calgary-police-investigate-rise-in-theft-of-costly-sex-toys/

——————

Makes sense, it’s free, reusable entertainment once you have, ah, the hardware.

#278 Rexx Rock on 01.14.15 at 5:56 pm

I couldn’t believe my eyes today,oil was up over 2 bucks a barrel.Watced bnn today and the good news is Calgary house prices will remain flat or a 1.5% increase.Very reassuring news for home owners.
Another good sign is the 10 year treasury at 1.85% for USA.

#279 Mark on 01.14.15 at 5:57 pm

“What happens when it’s time to renew the mortgage and the equity has been eroded?”

Basically such a borrower will get a letter from the bank only offering the ‘posted rate’ or worse. Additionally, features such as ‘payment holidays’, or ‘skip-a-payment’ will be mostly unavailable. And without equity, good luck taking the loan elsewhere.

Posted rates are a good 2-3%, in most cases, more than the rates most borrowers are paying these days. So households that planned on being able to pay back their mortgages using heavily discounted rates, could be in for a huge surprise.

All of this can (and as I argue, will) occur against the backdrop of the BoC keeping rates relatively low, as the economy will obviously suck until it is re-organized around different sectorS which do not suffer overcapacity such as housing and O&G. The same outcome occurred in the USA post-2008 as well — rates fell, but a large number of borrowers were unable to re-finance into the lower rates simply because they were not deemed to be sufficiently credit-worthy.

#280 Mark on 01.14.15 at 6:02 pm

“Mark, how would BOC react to compensate decline in housing activities which is significant part of GDP? By more credit? “

Same way the US Fed did in the United States — attempt to inject more credit into the system. ZIRP. QE. Etc. Loose credit policy extricated Canada/USA from the depths of the 2001-2003 recession, and set the housing bubble in motion.

After a while, eventually a new sector will rise out the ashes, and we’ll return to growth.

What that sector may be, well, if you can correctly identify that sector, and buy stock in it, you can probably make a lot of money in the years to come. Much like the people who levered up in Vancouver housing 10-14 years ago, are now quite wealthy.

I don’t know what the sector will be, but I do know that Canada’s gold mining industry is a sleeping giant, is world-leading, and provides a product, stable money, that tends to be heavily in-demand worldwide during periods of deflation and monetary instability.

#281 Mark on 01.14.15 at 6:06 pm

“We better buy some helicopters from uncle Ben while still cheap.

We already see inflation in action and some more building up but our correction has not even started.

I’m only seeing deflation around me, as people can no longer borrow money to buy ‘stuff’. Prices at the pump are getting cheaper by the day. The big-screen TV that I’ve been looking at has never been at a lower prices. Cars are cheaper than ever in real terms, which is why most teenagers drive now, and cars outnumber humans by a 3:1 ratio on my block. Credit is solidly pointing towards deflation — lenders are so desperate to lend money that they’re happy with less than 2%/annum interest, or even 2.49% for unsecured credit card lending (I’m being bombarded with offers!).

Not sure where you’re seeing ‘inflation’. And of course, the selling deluge in housing and all the toys accumulated by the people in the oilpatch who are losing their jobs hasn’t even swung into full effect yet.

#282 Smoking Man on 01.14.15 at 6:07 pm

#258 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 01.14.15 at 3:40 pm
#223 Rusty Venture on 01.14.15 at 1:10 pm

So, did Royal LePage’s report factor in all the eastern bums and creeps moving back to Toronto?
___________________________________________

At least the eastern bums will help prop up the real estate market. They gotta live somewhere!
Perhaps down by Smoking Man in Long Branch?
they can all meet at South side Johnny’s Bar.
…….

I don’t know about that, a semi just sold on 40th street for 900k. Beaches West baby.

I’M thinking Hamilton for refugees.

PS. You’ve made it into my book.

#283 Ronaldo on 01.14.15 at 7:31 pm

#279 Mark

”Posted rates are a good 2-3%, in most cases, more than the rates most borrowers are paying these days. So households that planned on being able to pay back their mortgages using heavily discounted rates, could be in for a huge surprise.”

Kinda like the “teaser rates” in the U.S. before the big RE crash right? What a trap these people are in.

#284 Jester on 01.14.15 at 11:12 pm

#243 Sheane Wallace on 01.14.15 at 2:38 pm
#249 Mark on 01.14.15 at 2:49 pm
#271 Sheane Wallace on 01.14.15 at 5:10 pm

Sheane, to understand Mark’s assertions, you have to realise that:
* he is to his admission short the USD and
* he is talking his book (probably deathly afraid of the loonie sinking further)

Mark would do well to think hard about Garth’s advice not to embarrass himself with … his unique commentary.

#285 Jester on 01.14.15 at 11:18 pm

#249 Mark on 01.14.15 at 2:49 pm said:
“Not seeing higher food prices, clothes are cheaper than ever, as are cars. Imported stuff is getting cheaper or remaining stable, despite the weaker CAD$, because there is very little demand either in Canada, or around the world.”

———-

Would this be on Smoking Man’s planet? Because down here on planet Earth, specifically in a country in the northernmost reaches of North America, prices of food, clothing, etc. have been going up and accelerating in at least the last six months.

#286 Jester on 01.15.15 at 12:17 am

#243 Sheane Wallace on 01.14.15 at 2:38 pm
#249 Mark on 01.14.15 at 2:49 pm
#271 Sheane Wallace on 01.14.15 at 5:10 pm

Sheane, to understand Mark’s assertions, you have to realise that:
* he is to his admission short the USD and
* he is talking his book (probably deathly afraid of the loonie sinking much further)

Mark would do well to think hard about Garth’s advice not to embarrass himself with … his unique commentary.

#287 Jester on 01.15.15 at 12:18 am

#249 Mark on 01.14.15 at 2:49 pm said:
“Not seeing higher food prices, clothes are cheaper than ever, as are cars. Imported stuff is getting cheaper or remaining stable, despite the weaker CAD$, because there is very little demand either in Canada, or around the world.”

———-

Would this be on Smoking Man’s home planet? Because down here on planet Earth, specifically in a country in the northernmost reaches of North America, prices of food, clothing, etc. have been going up and accelerating in at least the last six months.

#288 Victor V on 01.15.15 at 10:53 am

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/target-discontinue-canada-operation-seeks-133112451.html

TORONTO (Reuters) – Target Corp said on Thursday it will cease operations in Canada and has filed for creditor protection for its Canadian subsidiary in a surprise move that could put its 17,600 employees in the country out of work.

The U.S. discount retailer has struggled since its 2013 launch in Canada, and it said in November that it would review the future of its loss-making Canadian business after the holiday season.

#289 Victor V on 01.15.15 at 10:57 am

#279 Mark on 01.14.15 at 5:57 pm

“What happens when it’s time to renew the mortgage and the equity has been eroded?”

Basically such a borrower will get a letter from the bank only offering the ‘posted rate’ or worse. Additionally, features such as ‘payment holidays’, or ‘skip-a-payment’ will be mostly unavailable. And without equity, good luck taking the loan elsewhere.

Posted rates are a good 2-3%, in most cases, more than the rates most borrowers are paying these days. So households that planned on being able to pay back their mortgages using heavily discounted rates, could be in for a huge surprise.

==================================

B. I. EN. GEE. OH.

#290 Victor V on 01.15.15 at 11:02 am

Swiss central bank stuns markets with currency and rate ‘tsunami’

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/swiss-central-bank-stuns-markets-with-currency-and-rate-tsunami/article22457894/

Switzerland’s central bank truly shocked and awed the markets today, with two shots heard ‘round the world.

The franc soared and Swiss stocks plunged, and the move rippled globally across financial markets.

The double-barrel action – the central bank abandoned its peg against the euro, and took interest rates further into negative territory – also threatens to hurt the Swiss economy.

But more importantly, it brings the credibility of the world’s central banks even further into question, which in turn could well translate to further angst and uncertainty among investors.

“The ripple-out effect of this likely to be hard to quantify, and we could well get a lot more volatility as investors and markets in general try and work out what this sudden change in policy means for future central promises going forward, but it seems like that the U.S. dollar could well benefit, as well as gold, as investors look again at the more traditional havens,” said chief analyst Michael Hewson of CMC Markets in London.