The big D

SIGN modified

Local realtors will tell you it doesn’t mean much. After all, January’s just five days old. But, wow.

To date total Calgary property sales in January have fallen off a cliff – down 32.56% (58 sales, as opposed to 86 last year at this time). The number of active listings has shot higher, up 42%, and prices – at least this week – are taking a drubbing. The median is down 7.89% and the average price has given up 13.28%, which means $64,000 in equity just disappeared.

Of course, these stats are for just a few days. But they certainly continue the trend set in December, which this pathetic blog broke the news of several weeks ago, telling you Canada’s hottest market (for delusional price advance) had just turned negative. It will be a fascination now to watch how the coming weeks develop. By the way, here are the numbers displayed on the front page of the local cartel’s site:

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As you know, all hell is breaking loose. Guts everywhere. All those endless boring words I wrote about deflation and the end of the commodity thing might mean something after all. Because that appears to be where we’re headed.

On Monday oil prices dove through the $50 mark for the first time since the financial crisis. I don’t need to tell you what this will do to Calgary houses, the Alberta budget or the going rate for hookers in Fort Mac (you’d be surprised). But the chart below should be of interest, as it gives some insight on what might happen to the oil sands and all those fat-paycheque jobs which have fed real estate values. (That last bar on the right is us.)

OIL SANDS COSTS

Falling crude’s taken the dollar down, too. Now it’s just 85 cents US, so I hope you bought that house in Phoenix two years ago when I suggested it. We have no idea how low the Bank of Canada will allow it to sink before there’s intervention, but the cost of imports – including food at this time of year – will swell quickly. Financial markets have also swooned, with both the TSX and the Dow shedding over 300 points, or about 2% Monday, on concerns the oil collapse may mean something more profound.

That, in one word, is deflation. Europe’s got it. The central bank is poised to trigger its latest stimulus program to try and reverse the tide of falling prices and rising unemployment. It’s expected when the latest inflation numbers come out on Wednesday, they’ll be negative. It’s been a long time, like forever, since any living central banker has had to deal with that (although prices did go into the red briefly during the mess of 2009). Meanwhile Greece is back in the headlines as it moves towards an election that could see it bolt from the European Union – then likely implode.

Of course, the oil mess is sinking Russia, despite the Red Army choir feeling happy.

Russia will soon be in recession. So is Japan. And Italy. The euro has crumbled as the US dollar gains strength, so it’s highly likely the ECB will ramp up a bond-buying orgy by the end of the month, and breathe life back into euro stock markets.

But there’s never an easy fix when people stop expecting prices to rise, then anticipate they may fall. Smart folks delay buying decisions, waiting for better deals. Deflation means, by definition, money becomes more valuable since its purchasing power continually rises. By the same token, falling prices usually mean falling incomes, since businesses suffer mightily in a climate where assets are losing value.

So, worst off – as stuff gets cheaper and wages are under pressure – are the indebted. Mortgages get harder to pay at the same time as the assets they’ve financed, houses, decrease in value.

Kind of like Calgary lately. Deflating oil. Jobs and salaries under negative review. Real estate sales and prices turning south, on a dime. And, yes, Albertans have more debt, per capita, than the rest of us.

You need not look far to see what deflation’s capable of. Whatever the Russian dudes are drinking, I’m in.

233 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 01.05.15 at 6:57 pm

It’s Miller time.

#2 Optmistic grump on 01.05.15 at 7:03 pm

Happy New Year!

#3 Optmistic grump on 01.05.15 at 7:06 pm

Let’s build some condos!

http://calgaryherald.com/life/homes/condos/new-projects-to-shape-calgary-skyline

#4 raisemyrent on 01.05.15 at 7:07 pm

At least those guys sing in key! One thing is avoiding auto tune, but learn how to sing, or do a few takes until you get it right Mr Williams, don’t make up scales as you go along.
Poop is hitting the prop. I told my friend with 2 Calgary properties to sell when you said so a few months ago (I sent your post). She ignored me. My friend in Montreal is toast, still renovating and her plan out of debt hell was working in fort crack as a waitress! She’s a P.Eng. and speaks 4 languages.
I, well, maybe this spring I’ll move to an even nicer flat in downtown vancouver, as landlords become desperate. Fingers crossed. And enough with the move to Seattle crap! I love Canada and I thought so do you! It’s offensive to suggest that all other things are equal.
Also, I was away on holiday (because without a mortgage, the Caribbean trumps Highway 1), been catching up on your posts Garth. I just have to say, instead of the usual thanks for the free advice (thanks), what a great sense of humour you have! Keep it up.

#5 Paully on 01.05.15 at 7:07 pm

Da Comrade, oh so happy!

#6 Mark on 01.05.15 at 7:09 pm

“us rates go up , ours don’t is going to help CAD how? “

Rates only go up when there’s inflationary pressure either building, or already visible in the numbers. Which, by definition, is a weakening of the currency. Low rates tend to be better for currencies as it signifies that a central bank can actually run accommodative monetary policy without running into an inflation problem.

The whole model of “money will chase the highest interest rate” simply doesn’t work in real life over anything but very short time frames. The investment world is a bit more sophisticated than that, and seeks out total return, independent of actual cash yield. Buyers of CAD$ debt at this point are factoring in fairly significant increases to the value of the CAD$ in their willingness to pay such high prices (ie: accept such low yields) — a reflection of the strongly deflationary environment that is likely in the Canadian economy’s future.

As RE’s decline accelerates, such is going to have a severe effect on consumer spending. Heck, I’m booking airfares for a few days in Miami in a few weeks for the family, and I can’t believe the sort of low prices that are being spat out, compared to what I would have paid a similar time last year, or even when I made the trip 20 years ago. Airfares tend to be a pretty good indication of consumer spending, and they seem to be falling off a cliff right now.

#7 Boombust on 01.05.15 at 7:10 pm

So, does all this mean that “America, the world’s economic powerhouse” will drag everybody UP?

#8 waiting on the westcoast on 01.05.15 at 7:16 pm

So the play is to wait 3 months and then but Russian oil stocks denominated in rubles and wait for the bounce???

There is an article in the financial post about a group that is already vultching oil assets in Manitoba.

While the US is streaming ahead, there is only so much it will be able to handle if the whole world starts drifting down… Is it time to bunker up?

#9 Flatlander on 01.05.15 at 7:17 pm

So I blew my brains out and bought about $9000 of a TSX 60 ETF in October. I didn’t think I had enough money to justifiably diversify, so I put all my eggs in oil and the banks.

I do not have anymore cash in my TFSA, but with coming pay cheques I will.. So blog dogs, where should I move next to diversify my portfolio in light of the Big D.

#10 Judy Eisenhower on 01.05.15 at 7:21 pm

To the forum host,

Prostitution is banned in Canada, and the clients are breaking the law in Alberta.

Prostitution exploits women and causes the patriarchy to subjugate women into poverty and hopelessness.

The Conservative government have been going on the right track for outlawing the sex trade, and women should not have to sell their bodies to survive in modern Canada.

Housing prices will never fall in Toronto, because in Toronto, the society respects women, and God blesses those who respect the feminist movement.

#11 Fort Mac Hooker on 01.05.15 at 7:21 pm

Well thanks a sh!tload, Garth, just what we need here.

It’s hard enough standing outside in -40C, now we have you to thank for newbies thinking they can haggle with us.

I’m gonna have to take that job offer robocalling for Harper if this keeps up. Things can’t get much lower.

I knew I should have never left home to come here to Canada.

From Greece.

As to thialo, bastarde.

#12 zedgt87 on 01.05.15 at 7:24 pm

You seem to paint inflation as the bogey man that must be squashed through any means necessary.

You also seem supportive of dubious central bank practices like QE. Have you ever considered that a central bank printing money and buying financial assets with said printed money is a form of government repression, in this case the repression of a free market? How about the Japanese government monetizing the entire nations bond market?

#13 Lillooet, BC on 01.05.15 at 7:26 pm

Interesting pictograph showing the amount of oil production, the cost and the producers. It basically proves that the current price of $50/barrel is absolutely unsustainable. Here’s why:

The world consumes on average, 90 million barrels/day, each and every day, 7 days a week, 365 days/year. Has consumption suddenly dropped to 80 mb/d? No, of course not. If anything, consumption will show a sudden spike above 90 mb/d because the of the relatively cheap prices.

Therefore, at current price of $50/barrel, 55 mb/day worth of prodcution is at break even or making a profit. And 45 mb/day is losing money. Therefore, approx. 45% of world oil production is currently losing money at $50/barrel. A good chunk of this production is in the slow process of shutting down. Anyone can see that these conditions cannot last very much longer. Once the “oil in the supply chain” starts tailing off, price must rise. It’s the law of supply/demand.

Sure, Saudi Arabia can talk tough and they can still make a profit at $50 barrel, or even $40/barrel. But they only produce 11 mb/day, or about 15% of world daily consumption. Saudi Arabia cannot supply the world’s oil. The other countries in the pictographs make up the rest, and they won’t continue supplying at current rates if they lose 30% or more on each barrel they sell. They’ll just shut off production.

Sure, the sudden drop of oil to $50/barrel is shocking and surprising, but it is not based on economic fundamentals. There must be some manipulation going on behind the scenes to punish Russia. $50/barrel makes as much sense as $147/barrel oil, and neither will last long. The price must rise to $90 in order to supply the daily consumption of 90 million bp/day.

#14 Happy Renting on 01.05.15 at 7:26 pm

Wow, oil under $50. I remember an October blog post where “$80 oil is a possibility”. Now MSM reports talk of $40 oil. Interesting times ahead.

#15 Randy on 01.05.15 at 7:27 pm

It’s a right in Canada to own a house….haha

#16 LH on 01.05.15 at 7:30 pm

So how much do working ladies bank in fort mac?

#17 Happy Renting on 01.05.15 at 7:32 pm

#10 Judy Eisenhower (repetitive troll) made me roll my eyes. #11’s humor made me LOL.

Since we’re talking about it, anyone have any intel on the state of the Fort Mac sex trade? Good leading financial indicator?

#18 joe calgary on 01.05.15 at 7:36 pm

Local realtors in Calgary desperately posting pony and rainbow articles from the Calgary Sun saying housing will not be affected because of oil prices. Can’t wait to do the same when price declines become MSM and start vultching all the delusional debt dummies.

#19 takla on 01.05.15 at 7:37 pm

looks to me like the dow just wised up and realized the uncoupleing from crude oil had some meaning behind it.
So maybe things aren’t so great in the red/white/and blue…welcome to bubble economics
here in Canada we’re about to find out all about bubbles,homeowners should be running for the hills about now.

#20 Mark on 01.05.15 at 7:40 pm

“While the US is streaming ahead, there is only so much it will be able to handle if the whole world starts drifting down… Is it time to bunker up?”

What makes you think the “US is streaming ahead”? Most numbers seem to be weakening by the day, and its only a matter of time before the defaults start happening to the enormous amounts of subprime debt associated with the shale projects. Which, incidentally, has been the marginal source of economic growth for the US coming out of the downturn.

Isn’t it fairly obvious that claims of US ‘growth’ at this point are little more than propaganda?

#21 Bob Copeland on 01.05.15 at 7:40 pm

If I have learned anything from you it is nothing keeps going up forever. Gold, real estate and be balanced with stocks.
With the world looking like its heading into depression how long can the dollar last?

#22 Jon on 01.05.15 at 7:41 pm

Hookers and orgy’s. This is entertaining stuff. Just what is the going rate in Fort Mac anyway? I’m sure I would be surprised :)

In all seriousness it’s hard to believe residents of the one-trick pony Province that is Alberta have more debt per capita than the rest of us. No sales tax? Flat Provincial income tax? What gives?

#23 Brent Wagner on 01.05.15 at 7:45 pm

Garth you are a shill for Wall street. Peeps r suffering from losing their homes in the states and all you can talk about is how those psychopaths in Wall street r doing so well. U know what i mean.

#24 Chasicakes on 01.05.15 at 7:45 pm

I always did all my hustling in Edmonton back in the 80’s, never occurred to me to go right to the source in Ft. Mac. Oh well…live and learn!

#25 Paul on 01.05.15 at 7:53 pm

to number 10 Yada Yada Yada

#26 geogar on 01.05.15 at 7:56 pm

DELETED

#27 Harbour on 01.05.15 at 7:58 pm

The Loonie was artificially high with high oil, enjoy your temporary export party Ontario because we all know oil doesn’t stay low forever.

#28 Smoking Man on 01.05.15 at 7:59 pm

What a complete insult to woman.

A bunch of geeks in dentist school being goofy, idiots, chirping woman… Nastily might I add.

Well the femanazis and the emasculated creatures who dare call themselves men have suspended 13 dental students for trash talking fellow female students on line.

What, are those woman students not capable of trash talking back on Face book, or twitter. Giving it back to those
Losers. Mobilizing a chic revolt on there oun.

Making them victims is so insulting to woman.

Nope, seems we are all getting re programed to have Authority solve all our problems. We’re not capable inspite so called higher learning.

It won’t be long before men get castrated if they still speak in a low octave tone..

Through in a smokers raspy voice.. More than the nuts will get chopped.

#29 Tony from Calgary on 01.05.15 at 7:59 pm

Oil’s on a tear to have collapsed by 70% – 80% (and could keep falling). That sounds strangely familiar to the 80% – 90% housing market correction calls by individuals you so rudely dismissed a couple years back, Garth.

See you at the Automatic Earth. Only a matter of time now.

-TFC

#30 Roman on 01.05.15 at 8:02 pm

Flatlander, since you have a lot in oil and the banks, for a diversification purpose you should buy condo in Vancouver AND a house in Calgary.

#31 prairie person on 01.05.15 at 8:04 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/01/03/layoffs-loom-in-albertas-oil-patch/?__lsa=2ea7-1378

#32 3some on 01.05.15 at 8:04 pm

#10 Judy Eisenhower

Toronto is the best market for Prostitues. Every body rub place in the city offers sex. The strip joints, to compete with the body rub parlours, offer sex in the back rooms. Sites like backpage only exist for prostitutes. Prostitution is not illegal in Canada, soliciting is.

A woman should have the right to do what ever she wants with her body.

#33 The Patient on 01.05.15 at 8:05 pm

Good thing America is going gangbusters after decoupling from the rest of the world and evading the long shadow cast by global deflation, eh?

“Never bet against America”?

More Kool-Aid, please.

The US is fine. Worry about us. — Garth

#34 Jon on 01.05.15 at 8:07 pm

@TFC Can you explain that in English?

#35 Not Judy on 01.05.15 at 8:08 pm

#10 Judy

You’re funny.. Prostitution is about as illegal in Canada as doing 10 over the limit on a public highway. Technically illegal? Yes. Practically illegal? Far from it – and not every woman in the sex trade is being exploited. Try using a slightly less broad brush..

#36 prairie person on 01.05.15 at 8:12 pm

Garth, I found it hard to believe when you said that parents were lending their kids the money to make the downpayment on houses. Then I got an email yesterday about a couple, she’s 65, he’s70, both retired, who don’t have much money, lending their son and daugher in law the downpayment for a house. Just happened a couple of weeks ago. All i could think of was Oh God, there is going to be a lot of pain there. I think one or both of the young couple work in an jobs connected to the oil business. House prices come down and the down payment will disappear in a flash. Parents retirement money gone. If jobs disappear with the layoffs that are already happening, the kids will lose the house and owe the difference. I just hope the parents didn’t co sign or they could go from getting by in retirement to being poverty stricken. Lots of retired people here already going to food banks. Groceries shooting up in price when you are both working, making 100k up, don’t mean much but if you are retired or suddenly unemployed food prices matter, car or truck payments matter. If you are young and healthy, you can look abroad. If you are retired and your kidslose the money you have leant them, you are doomed.

#37 saskatoon on 01.05.15 at 8:13 pm

#10 Judy Eisenhower

*cough*troll*cough*

#38 Optmistic grump on 01.05.15 at 8:13 pm

So is PEI the only “have” province left……..

#39 harden on 01.05.15 at 8:14 pm

Less than 3% foreign condo ownership in vancouver according to CMHC – nothing to see here – including this small town near whistler all locals
http://www.theprovince.com/Ghost+town+near+Whistler+life+after+being+bought+Chinese+investors/10703343/story.html

#40 Freedom First on 01.05.15 at 8:14 pm

#10 Judy Eishenwhower

Yes the Harper Government is on the right track having banned prostitution in Canada. The clients (men) are breaking the law, while the innocent sex trade workers(women) are being taken advantage of. Good thinking. I think the Harper Government’s next move should be to have the word “whore” made illegal to use in Canada, as it is insulting the innocent women who are simply selling their bodies to the real law breakers. Everything is the man’s fault in Canada now. Thank God I am not a law breaker yet for just being a man, and thank God I am single, and live alone. In other words, very happy, but then again I always put my freedom first. I owe nobody nothing, and what I give to help others is by choice, my way, as I do everything my way.

Too bad too, is the way the oil economy is going, as the sex trade workers in Ft. McMoney may have to get another job as the law breaking men up there lose their jobs.

Yes, big changes are happening in Alberta right now. Like the Premiere of Alberta said, the suffering will affect everyone, even the innocent women.

#41 Irwin on 01.05.15 at 8:15 pm

Oily sands cost of production $80. Sell for $50. Sounds like a plan to me. We’ll make up the difference with increased production. (joke)

#42 Nobleton Bill on 01.05.15 at 8:17 pm

#10 Judy Eisenhower on 01.05.15 at 7:21 pm

The definition of a Hooker does not specify the sex of a prostitute as female only. Here…I found it for you:

1. a person or thing that hooks
2. a prostitute

‘Prostitution is the business or practice of engaging in sexual relations in exchange for payment[1][2] or some other benefit. Prostitution is sometimes described as commercial sex.’ Wikipedia

That’s a very sexist attitude. It clearly shows your lack of understanding regarding the issue as a whole.

This blog is dedicated to understanding supply and demand in all financial aspects.

Just a hunch, but I think we might be getting deviant. — Garth

#43 Retired Boomer - WI on 01.05.15 at 8:19 pm

#10 Judy Eisenhower

I read your post. Your a tad arrogant speaking for the “working girls.” Do you have any proof they feel “exploited” or “hopeless”, or even “in poverty?”

As for a conservative government doing anything radically different from a liberal one over a client relationship seems a bit of a stretch.

A more conservative government might increase the number of practitioners of the oldest trade known. I can’t say, just a guess here.

In the meantime, Judy, don’t bet on that Toronto home holding its value either. We know not what tomorrow might bring. Demographics is destiny.

#44 Nobleton Bill on 01.05.15 at 8:24 pm

17 Happy Renting on 01.05.15 at 7:32 pm
‘Since we’re talking about it, anyone have any intel on the state of the Fort Mac sex trade? Good leading financial indicator?’

That’s the point, it’s a leading indicator of Canadian markets at a ‘grass routes’ level. It’s completely tangible(no pun intended)
Keep it about financials and avoid the NOISE

#45 van guy on 01.05.15 at 8:26 pm

With all this terrible news in the world, US equities are still hovering near ATH’s. Id be scared putting money into US stocks as its already bubbled up for 5 years. Valuations are fair, and risk is high. I expect the next earnings season to determine the direction of the market. It will be fun watching the earnings in the oil patch.

#46 Retired Boomer - WI on 01.05.15 at 8:28 pm

Now that thee Troll has been dispatched….

Ouch!! Nasty Day on Wall St. but, with Grexit talk, Europe in the Dumpster, and oil breaking $50 everybody is a bit nerve-frayed.

Bond prices were up yields down as is customary in a sell-off. A bit of a noisy day on the street.

I am more worried about the new US Congress itching for that far east trade deal which will merely shift mfg to the lowest common denominators in the world, while the country slips into an employment coma. Good for BIG business, bad for locals.

Things just don’t smell quite right here in the US can’t quite define where the bad odor is quit yet. Worried…

#47 Linda on 01.05.15 at 8:36 pm

Maybe Japan should work first on how not to die during New Year’s – recession may be the least of their problems.

I suggest sake instead. Straight up. No snacks.

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2015/01/05/9_choke_to_death_eating_new_years_rice_cakes_in_japan.html

(Reads like a weird omen of a bad year to come. Sad.)

#48 Snowboid on 01.05.15 at 8:42 pm

We bought our Phoenix home four years ago.
There were some impressive price gains from 2010 to mid-2014. Sale prices didn’t rise much in 2014, but based on comparable sales around us we would beat any RE investment we previously had in BC.

After capital gains, and including exchange, we would make almost 50% from what we paid in December 2010.

But we aren’t selling, despite a few of our Canadian neighbours cashing out in the last couple of months.

We still have a few years before we consider selling.

It’s too much fun having a winter ‘cabin’ in the sun (24C tomorrow).

#49 Michael on 01.05.15 at 8:44 pm

No rate hike from U.S. Fed . . . just look at the declining yield of 30-year U.S. Treasury bond or the flattening of yield curve.

#50 Banjopete on 01.05.15 at 8:50 pm

I don’t see it here yet in Edmonton, but I am starting to hear about it. Projects are being shelved, and permits are slow to arrive as decisions higher up the food chain are being carefully chewed on.

So far in my little part of the industry this year I’ve seen one entirely scrapped project, one project, halved in scope, and another is potentially being put off until next year as of this morning with a previously intended start date of this coming monday…

All rainbows and unicorns. Thank goodness I read this blog.

#51 nonplused on 01.05.15 at 8:53 pm

Oh well doesn’t look like we’ll be worrying about all of this for much longer:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-05/potential-dangerous-asteroid-hit-earth-january-26-three-weeks

If it does hit (unlikely) I hope it lands right on my head.

I still see some sort of miscalculation that sets off the nukes a more likely threat, but still unlikely.

Anybody see Dr. Strangeglove? Sub titled “How I stopped worrying and learned to love the atomic bomb”? Well funny enough movie but the “Doomsday” machine in the movie already exists. If we go to nuclear war sure that will probably wipe society out but then the nuclear plants around the world will go to the weeds and eventually release all their spent fuel. A failure of society at this point is the end of life on the planet. No need to worry about the Mad Max scenario for more than a few years.

That’s why my prepper activity focuses on surviving an ice storm, not the end of days. No one will survive if things get really bad because the spent fuel isn’t going to stay in the swimming pools.

#52 Detalumis on 01.05.15 at 8:54 pm

#28 The dental students were suspended because the school’s reputation is at risk for having so many immature students in the class. They shouldn’t be in the program until they grow up. If male students in a professional school are so childish at that age then no, I wouldn’t have one as my dentist. I would stick to older ones or younger women.

Dentists are not like doctors, they need to compete for patients so yeah it is a really big deal. It has nothing to do with girly men, feminism or authority, it has to do with conducting yourself as a professional which you should be at that age in that course of study.

#53 Brian Ripley on 01.05.15 at 8:55 pm

Garth said: To date total Calgary property sales in January have fallen off a cliff”

I don’t have the charts updated yet (not all boards have reported) but Edmonton average single family detached houses are down 3% from the Nov 2014 peak and Edmonton residential sales are down 32% M/M (unchanged Y/Y)

Vancouver residential sales are down 16% M/M in December but up 8% Y/Y

Not only are crude prices deflating and currency and trade wars erupting, but Canada’s most expensive energy resource is looking very unappealing to buyers.

I mashed up the CIA Factbook data on Nat Gas and Russia has the biggest proved reserves in the world (16x Canada, 5x the U.S.)… and the biggest market buyers are east and south of Russia not west:

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/its-a-gas-gas-gas

Europe and NATO’s bombing missions (thanks Canada) looks like 19th and 20th Century thinking to me. Canada is resource rich with a hungry work force. We could do a lot better if we stuck to our knitting and added more value to what we already have in the ground

#54 Washed Up Lawyer on 01.05.15 at 8:59 pm

So my shack in Calgary is down $64,000.

DEPLETED

#55 Winterpeg on 01.05.15 at 8:59 pm

So…
Question #1: does this mean a full blown housing correction/buyers market across Canada by the Spring?

Question #2: Could still sell in the Spring and cash in, in smaller markets in Canada?

#56 Ex-Cowtown on 01.05.15 at 9:04 pm

Got a call from my niece in Cowtown last week. She and her high rollin’ oilpatch hubby heard that I dumped all my O&G holdings in the summer and have a few $$$ skanking around. They want a loan.

I told them two years ago that they were spending WAAYY more than they were making, but no lights went on. Instead it was pedal to the metal. Trips to Tahiti, Disneyland (several) private schools for the kids (4 & 6 years old) lessons of every kind imaginable for same, golf vacations in Palm Springs and Phoenix, huge house, new $60K Airstream trailer, new $70K Tahoe to pull it, and on and on. Oh, and did I mention my niece’s yoga retreats to Bali? She wants to be a yoga instructor. And now hubby is out of work.

The advice I gave them was free. Hard lesson comin’. I learned mine in the 80’s and 90’s. Their turn. Good news is that they’re young and have many years to recover. I did.

#57 Bytor the Cold Snow Dog on 01.05.15 at 9:04 pm

I think you guys are missing #10 Judy’s subtle sarcasm.

I submit her(?) sarcasm means as follows:

Feminists = Delusional.

House Horny REALTORS© = Delusional.

TADA!

#58 devore on 01.05.15 at 9:10 pm

#186 Jimbo

As for Vancouver, freind just informed me that every 4th store on Robson street if for lease…

No it isn’t.

He said it was astonishing.

He should invest in an eye exam and a remedial math class.

#59 The big D | Realties.ca on 01.05.15 at 9:11 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/01/05/the-big-d-3/ […]

#60 stop lying on 01.05.15 at 9:12 pm

#6 – cuz airfares have nothing to do with gas prices…

That’s an interesting sample size for Jan sales. One could probably show HAM owns all of Vancouver with similar methodology.

Canada 5 year yields in a polar vortex. Could sit there a while.

#61 Linda on 01.05.15 at 9:15 pm

#22 Jon: I can believe Albertans are ‘the most indebted’ because: new cars, new house, new furniture, new clothes, new accessories, vacations abroad & lots of restaurant meals/bar bills at home. Lots of younger people here so lots of new babies too. Ka-ching! And lots of people who have never lived through a bust cycle. Alberta prayer is ‘Please God, let there be another boom. I promise not to pi** it all away next time’. Problem is, not too many people remember that prayer when the next boom hits……

#62 d guy on 01.05.15 at 9:23 pm

I have never own a cell phone, a laptop now a flat screen tv…. Price have been going down every year so i am waiting.

See how ridiculous that sounds!! Well they say it on the news and people buy it.

Other than maybe for a house people do now delay purchase in anticipation of lower price…

They even are willing to pay an extra 20% to get it now and pay with credit card instead of waiting to save the cash.

#63 prairie person on 01.05.15 at 9:23 pm

Re my earlier post. it’s worse than I thought. The retired couple borrowed the money to give to their son and daughter in law as a down payment on a house. I know what my parents would have said if I’d gone to them and asked them to borrow the downpayment for a house so I could have a house I couldn’t afford. not loaned me out of their savings but borrowed.

#64 Smoking Man on 01.05.15 at 9:28 pm

#52 Detalumis on 01.05.15 at 8:54 pm
#28 The dental students were suspended because the school’s reputation is at risk for having so many immature students in the class. They shouldn’t be in the program until they grow up. If male students in a professional school are so childish at that age then no, I wouldn’t have one as my dentist. I would stick to older ones or younger women.

Dentists are not like doctors, they need to compete for patients so yeah it is a really big deal. It has nothing to do with girly men, feminism or authority, it has to do with conducting yourself as a professional which you should be at that age in that course of study.
……..

I was before Xmass, exams over, probably alcohol involved, thumb typing and alcohol don’t mix, trust me.

Your wrong, it’s all about politics, and emasculation of the male spices.

Let’s face, in world history, woman never rose up in mass with weapons drawn to defeat tyrants.

Only misbehaving males do that stuff, best for the machine to turn them closer to the pink side..

#65 Roman on 01.05.15 at 9:36 pm

Anybody interested pitching new reality comedy freak show to HBO? Say “Scary Houses Of The White Land”
or “What 10k Barrels of Oil Can Buy”

Script is the following:
suddenly you’ll living in a crack house that costs 20x what you earn after taxes. You don’t remember how that happens. But something flashes about making cowberry jam to sell for huge mark up, a lot of it. Even pumping it over Keystoned Pipe to the neighbours. But all that doesn’t make a lot of sense since nobody like that jam anymore.

Meanwhile, you discover that the bank owns your soul and everything else too.

The And winter is coming.

Pics for the deck.
http://realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=15062149
http://realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=15118652

#66 Obvious Truth on 01.05.15 at 9:38 pm

Money works the same way all the time. It never changes. Anecdotes and people in places that think they are exempt from the laws of money are wrong.

Your personal views on housing, oil prices or prostitutes don’t count. Money will behave as it always does. People who put hard earned money to work tell you what is going to happen.

Its what the message is day after day. Why a well constructed portfolio works. Why the over leveraged, unless lucky, always lose.

Oil, housing and the dollar have to be basically left for dead before anyone will care to invest real money.Can traders put a 3 on oil? You know they wanna.

Will the Canadian banks and energy stocks double bottom or break?

#67 Waterloo Resident on 01.05.15 at 9:45 pm

My reply to #10 – Judy Eisenhower:

(“Prostitution is banned in Canada, and the clients are breaking the law in Alberta.”)

=== yes, that’s true, but since feminists now consider ALL FORMS or sex a form or rape and prostitution of women, I guess that men should forget about marriage also, right?

(“Prostitution exploits women and causes the patriarchy to subjugate women into poverty and hopelessness.”)

= = = well it sure doesn’t exploit men, so yeah, I guess that’s right also. But what is a ‘patriarchy’, I’ve never heard of that before, is it a type of fruit?

(“women should not have to sell their bodies to survive in modern Canada.”)

=== Yeah, that’s true, unfortunately men still have to sell their bodies in the form of them exchanging their bodies for money, in that they work for money in factories and ore mines.

(“Housing prices will never fall in Toronto, because in Toronto, the society respects women, and God blesses those who respect the feminist movement.”)

=== I respect the feminist movement when their wanted equality, but today’s feminist movement is so mentally insane, for example, it wants to ban men from peeing while standing up at urinals. Now what kind of craziness is that? As for Toronto; its okay, just as long as you ignore the crazy militant feminists who live there.

#68 Jian Cosby on 01.05.15 at 9:45 pm

Well hi there, blog dawgs, and Hey, Hey, Hey to you, Garth!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDT7GP9l1-I

A big shout out to my brother, Smoking Man :)

You and me are two old gray peas in a black and white pod, man. I hope to see you at one (or all, why not!) of my shows this week near you, Smokey. My comedy theme is “putting women in their place, with a smile on their face”. You’re going to love it!!

http://www.ticketmaster.ca/Bill-Cosby-tickets/artist/702564

And you are so right about those boy dentists being persecuted by femanazis who could just as easily have trashed talked those boys back.

Same thing with me, Smokey. Those women accusing me could have just as easily drugged and assaulted me back. Instead, they played the victim card, just like you said. That’s an insult to all women. You nailed it, Smokey!

Good news though for me – I am negotiating with the Dalhousie Dental School Gentlemen’s Club for a semi-permanent booking gig, could see me spending a few month’s every year out there in Novey Scotie entertaining the lads!

Just hope I can get me some muck lucks.

#69 RealistvsExtremist on 01.05.15 at 9:47 pm

So…..if the use of oil has “not changed” an its more than half of what it was. Logic says it was never worth 100 bucks to begin with.

I wonder what other Banker/Trader/Financial crap is going to show up this year. This is supposed to be the year all the banker crap is exposed and this time….they will not be bailed out. Look out below !! 2008 was a picnic.

#70 RealistvsExtremist on 01.05.15 at 9:58 pm

Things just don’t smell quite right here in the US can’t quite define where the bad odor is quit yet. Worried… –
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

How about the fact that the “recovery” has been a cherry picked scam in places like LA and NY…….try driving around the USA and look at all the thousands of ghost towns…..oh and 60 million food stamp recipients can’t be wrong.

#71 Blacksheep on 01.05.15 at 10:02 pm

Hugh Hendry is a pretty sharp guy and provides a great explanation for the need to “play along” with the herds investment beliefs. This reasoning applies as to why I reinvested in Canadian RE a year ago, after being out for 5 years.

“Hugh Hendry’s Eclectica Fund has had a great Q4 (up 3.3%, 4.0%, and 5.0% in the last 3 months) despite portfolio risk being quadruple his ‘old normal’. How did he achieve this? He begins… “There are times when an investor has no choice but to behave as though he believes in things that don’t necessarily exist. For us, that means being willing to be long risk assets in the full knowledge of two things: that those assets may have no qualitative support; and second, that this is all going to end painfully. The good news is that mankind clearly has the ability to suspend rational judgment long and often… He who hangs on to truth has lost.”

“The economic truth of today no longer offers me much solace; I am taking the blue pills now.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-31/hugh-hendry-embraces-central-planning-matrix-i-am-taking-blue-pills-now

#72 Country Girl on 01.05.15 at 10:03 pm

#68 Jian Cosby on 01.05.15 at 9:45 pm

Thank you for telling us how it is.
And as for ” spending a few month’s every year out there in Novey Scotie entertaining the lads!”, please take Smoking Man with you. He’ll fit right in with those imbeciles!

#73 everythingisterrible on 01.05.15 at 10:03 pm

.#28 Smoking Man
They weren’t trash talking classmates. They were joking about drugging and raping women with chloroform. There is a slice of truth to every joke. Do we want these people administering medications to women the renders them unconcious during dental procedures? No.
You’re probably a Bill Cosby fan SM, you ignorant tool.

#74 dienekes on 01.05.15 at 10:06 pm

@ #10 Judy Eisenhower on 01.05.15 at 7:21 pm
Stupidly high house prices help single woman or single woman with children???
I think you should re-examine your logic.
But isn’t that why feminists don’t like men; being confronted with logic?

#75 rk usa on 01.05.15 at 10:10 pm

re: #28 Smoking Man on 01.05.15 at 7:59 pm

off topic as usual

dude, get your own blog you have become tiresome

#76 The American on 01.05.15 at 10:11 pm

Hey, everybody! I just watched The Interview. Shoot, I can’t stop laughing. Makes me realize things in the U.S. really aren’t anywhere near as dire as some would wish or believe. The satyrical dissonance in the movie is uncomfortable and hilarious at the same time! I hope everything is going swell up in your neck of the woods! Cheers

#77 Relax... $$$$ will be printed in canada too on 01.05.15 at 10:12 pm

Relax, the sky is still up there! Go see!

Get used to volatility – long term money printing habits will cause real assets to double

Just wait a decade

#78 Alberta housing prices to fall like oil stocks on 01.05.15 at 10:16 pm

RE is going to CRASH and CRASH hard!. Alberta is already lost $64k and those losses will only get worse.

#79 Gregor Samsa on 01.05.15 at 10:17 pm

Turned on CBC radio news and here were the top 2 local news stories today:

1) Calgary home prices have just hit an all time high (subtext, you are sucker if you don’t own a house and get in on the gravy train).

2) Oil hit $50, what does this mean? Cue interview with an “economist” saying that oil MUST go back up very soon (subtext, don’t worry, buy a house).

I think more people will hear that news than will read this blog.

#80 Standard Deviation on 01.05.15 at 10:21 pm

So now we have a clear trend, where oil prices have fallen 50% not due to a logical confluence of circumstance, as we only have a 2% surplus, which could evaporate in a heartbeat with what happens in the Middle East and elsewhere. Now of course every person who can add 1+1 is a commodities expert and the talking heads in our institutions offer more of the same. Economics is becoming even worse than a dirty science it is becoming a science of opportunity and duplicity that the media cannot help but be attracted to: a bit like our RE entities. Caveat Emptor has never been as true as it is today Due Diligence is no longer an option but a necessity in everything.

#81 Smoking Man on 01.05.15 at 10:22 pm

#68 Jian Cosby on 01.05.15 at 9:45 pm

Nice try, big difference between Cosby and a bunch of drunkin goofs.

My point was if the boys are bulling the girls, the girls should bully them back. That’s true feminism. Victimizing the girls is a disservice to movement.

The whole thing got politicized cause machine with its track record (building 7, JFK) is terrified by immature, non compliant, miss behaving boys..

An larger than life example needs to set… When ever it can.

#82 Arfmooocat on 01.05.15 at 10:44 pm

What a game… Russia won’t roll over

#83 Koshy Alex on 01.05.15 at 10:55 pm

Some thoughts about the world economy in 2015 by Indian CB governor Raghuram Rajan

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/Z53gLr8QTliRqFmHRnauNM/Raghuram-Rajan–Bracing-for-stagnation.html

#84 SWL1976 on 01.05.15 at 10:59 pm

There is no global recovery in the plan, the American renaissance is phony. The ultra rich got richer and average Joe gets the slop. All while thinking he is richer than he thinks.

We are on the road to servitude and debt slavery. Prepare accordingly, and to ease yourself of future heart break I would start expecting less. The truth is no one really knows how to navigate the road ahead, but the brave ones who have been able to take an honest look at the situation will have a good head start.

If humanity and the 99% could come together and not be servants to the 1% we might have a chance to turn this ship around… But honestly… I don’t see it. Too many people are either in denial or oblivious to what is really happening. The writing has been on the wall for years…

It won’t be much longer now before there is another engineered catastrophe to shock the masses into giving up more liberties and freedoms all while their governments beat the war drum. I hate to be the bearer of bad news but the probability of war and financial collapse is much greater right now than the probability of humanity coming together to deal with climate change, food shortages, clean drinking water and mega disasters such as fukushima

I am hoping for the best, but expecting the worst. We borrowed from our future 40 years ago

There’s always hope… Then there’s always reality…

Frankly, the reality of the situation needs to be promptly addressed, but its only being exacerbated by the ones who created it.

Find the simple things in life to make you smile cause its a hard ass world out there

Where do you sorry-ass people come from? — Garth

#85 seeing it from both sides on 01.05.15 at 10:59 pm

No slowdown in Van. Rentals going haywire….
friend just rented out her new 500 sq. ft investment condo for $1800!!!!! No parking to boot.
Snapped up by university student here on student visa as soon as listing was posted. OMG.

#86 OttawaMike on 01.05.15 at 11:03 pm

#52 Detalumis on 01.05.15 at 8:54 pm
“because the school’s reputation is at risk for having so many immature students in the class. They shouldn’t be in the program until they grow up”

#64 SM
————————————————————
Professionalism.
Have to agree with Delatumis. There is a certain standard that particular members of society need to be held to. This is not about so called Feminazis.
It is about medical profession ethics. It’s one thing to joke about in a drunken frat house stupour but to construct a FB page dedicated to it?

#87 Godth on 01.05.15 at 11:09 pm

A new retardation is gripping us in a vice like squeeze, lower oil prices; expansionary (debt) times – yee-ha! When will it all end in tears? Soon enough but there’s no accounting for positive thinking: emotional exuberance.

At least no one I talk to is talking too much nonsense…and I have friends trying to sell upscale properties. Around here the jig is up.

#88 Mukadi on 01.05.15 at 11:09 pm

Wait! Is that price chart correct?
If yes, doesn’t it mean that Canada and the US should stop destroying the environment by extracting oil for a loss?

If I spend $80 to extract 1 barrel of oil while creating pollution that requires further expenses for the cleanup (assuming it can be done), shouldn’t the barrel of oil be worth at least $100?

In reality, a barrel of shale oil is NOT profitable below $150/ barrel if you account for the environmental disaster that the extraction causes. Earthquakes in California are going to become more active in the next decade as the shale oil destroys the state:

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-11-18/shale-oil-expensive-over-hyped-and-short-lived

#89 Smoking Man on 01.05.15 at 11:10 pm

#73 everythingisterrible on 01.05.15 at 10:03 pm
.#28 Smoking Man
They weren’t trash talking classmates. They were joking about drugging and raping women with chloroform. There is a slice of truth to every joke. Do we want these people administering medications to women the renders them unconcious during dental procedures? No.
You’re probably a Bill Cosby fan SM, you ignorant tool.

………

Ok off with there heads, for cracking jokes.

You don’t see the big play right under your nose.

Damn I have so much to teach.

My dad, a sweeper of floors, bought houses, cars, cottages. Mom stayed home. In 60s

Man Vs Woman.
Save the Trees.
Green, save the planet.
Black vs White.

A distraction, a magicians slight of hand.

Not one of you question why, today the young need two jobs, two incomes just to barley survive.. No the machine don’t want you going down that road..

Off with the smoking man’s head..

Humans, oblivious to the obvious.

#90 Retired Boomer - WI on 01.05.15 at 11:15 pm

#70 RealistvsExtremist

From my views of Minneapolis to Chicago and a lot of points in between recovery IS going on. Not a hot dam, big event, but steady with growth.

As for the people on food stamps, one has to understand how that system works. A person, destitute with below poverty income gets the bulk, those with a bit more might collect as little at $10 or $15 a month, yet are counted as ‘on’ food stamps.

Yes, we have towns like Fostoria, OH which lost an Autolite factory with UAW jobs to Mexico, or Cudahy, WI which lost a GM Champion plant to Mexico with UAW jobs thankless to NAFTA. Neither is a ‘ghost town’ but suffers after the losses to cheap wages.

The BIG question is, what kind of country do we desire? I see little threat to the present upward slopping (as in the top gets the most) as most Americans are too dumb, and lazy to challenge the status quo. That’s where labor in the 30’s was so different. Not today, probably not even tomorrow either.

#91 Godth on 01.05.15 at 11:18 pm

Where do you sorry-ass people come from? — Garth

Not government, or the financial sector. Poor working schmucks that will eventually fashion pitchforks for the rentiers.

#92 Smoking Man on 01.05.15 at 11:22 pm

#86 OttawaMike on 01.05.15 at 11:03 pm
#52 Detalumis on 01.05.15 at 8:54 pm
“because the school’s reputation is at risk for having so many immature students in the class. They shouldn’t be in the program until they grow up”

#64 SM
————————————————————
Professionalism.
Have to agree with Delatumis. There is a certain standard that particular members of society need to be held to. This is not about so called Feminazis.
It is about medical profession ethics. It’s one thing to joke about in a drunken frat house stupour but to construct a FB page dedicated to it?
……..

What reputations, schools are a con job, a money making machine.. The entire premises memorize, behave , regurgitation.

All info on anything, free on line. In fact if one was to hang on the pathetic blog for a year or so, will know more than an MBA.

Put a dentist drill in my hand, have someone show me how to use it a few times, I’ll get good. Any thing I haven’t bothered to memorize is a quick mouse away.

#93 rainclouds on 01.05.15 at 11:29 pm

#72 Country

“THOSE IMBECILES ” Generalize much?
Am thinking you are the life of the party wherever your shadow is cast.

On a more relevant note: could get interesting in AZ.CA.FLA. for those who leveraged their primary residence to purchase vac prop.

#94 Ret on 01.05.15 at 11:29 pm

If we had deflation of say 2%, should entitlements and union agreements also be rolled back 2% to reflect the new reality? A 2% cut in the budgets of all government departments would also be reasonable.

As the government cost of living indexes were used to justify increases, should they not also be used to justify decreases when they go negative?

I look forward to our politicians leading by example on this one with no exceptions or exclusions.

(I think that deflation was discussed for maybe forty-eight seconds during the three years that I spent studying the dismal science in the early 70’s. Deflation was seen as a 1920-30’s economic oddity that would likely never be repeated.)

#95 Andrew Woburn on 01.05.15 at 11:37 pm

#123 Edward on 01.05.15 at 4:14 am
In the last 3 years, about 2500 homes in West Vancouver have sold. There are only about 10,000 homes. The vast majority are single family homes. Many of these homes are older homes being torn down and a new much larger home being built on the lot.
================

We sold one of them in 2012, a 60’s wreck. The buyers were local Iranians. The house was immediately torn down and rebuilt into a $6 million property which I understand was bought by another Iranian, possibly a recent immigrant.

Our Chinese realtor told us at the time that the hot interest in West Van from Chinese mainland buyers had cooled a lot. She said however that Chinese Canadians who had arrived a few years ago now felt acclimatized enough to move out of Richmond to West Van and were selling to newer immigrants from the mainland who didn’t have West Van size budgets.

Many of the recent teardowns are in the British Properties area, the subdivisions built in the Sixties. They are at the end of their useful lives and the buildings are relatively small and assessed as virtually worthless. They would eventually all have been rebuilt with or without HAM since they offer large, scenic and quiet lots within 15 minutes of downtown. They may be more attractive to Chinese buyers than to other groups. Our realtor said Chinese have a cultural aversion to buying used homes so the idea of ripping out the old house comes more naturally to them.

To me, blaming HAM for high real estate prices is like blaming global warming on people who drive Hummers. Sure Hummers spew carbon but what about the impact of the sun? HAM has to have some effect on the market but what about thousands of debt-crazed house-hornies?

#96 joblo on 01.05.15 at 11:38 pm

So nice to see Harpo cheering at the game tonite while Kanada goes to rat poop!

#97 devore on 01.05.15 at 11:43 pm

#81 Smoking Man

I think if a bunch of immature, non compliant, miss behaving boys were openly joking about drugging and raping your daughter, you’d be reaching for the shotgun, not throwing a celebration party.

Your revolution is over, the neanderthals lost.

#98 Cowtown cowboy on 01.05.15 at 11:46 pm

Ahhhh, the sky is falling, the sky is falling…all aboard the bandwagon express!

Should I cancel my trip to Maui next week????

Nah, it will be intersting to see if it is still crawling with western Canadians. Can’t help but wonder if I shouldn’t have rethought the new Audi though…

#99 NEVER GIVE UP on 01.05.15 at 11:47 pm

#10 Judy Eisenhower
All right Brain.
No logic!
Why not take your grandstand somewhere else.

#100 Smoking Man on 01.05.15 at 11:48 pm

#96 joblo on 01.05.15 at 11:38 pm
So nice to see Harpo cheering at the game tonite while Kanada goes to rat poop
…..

Thrilled Canada won, but I wouldn’t be upset if they lost, I think seeing the smirk on Putin’s face at the next G20 staring down Harpo would have been priceless.

#101 Andrew Woburn on 01.05.15 at 11:49 pm

#153 Musty Basement Dweller on 01.05.15 at 2:30 pm
See link below. So the Gulf islands properties in the banana belt, retirement mecca of Canada have been falling in the last four years. (the time of all time low interest rates and most generous lending policies via CMHC /taxpayers).
===================

I don’t think CMHC will back a cheap mortgage on a second property. As far as I know, mortgaging vacation property is not easy. Lastly, how do even affluent younger families afford two properties today?

#102 Arfmooocat on 01.05.15 at 11:52 pm

#96 joblo

And look who’s right beside him. lol

#103 Washed Up Lawyer on 01.05.15 at 11:57 pm

Rollicking good discussion tonight. Can we return to the sex trade in Ft. McM? Is the most important metric “days on the market”?

Mark?

#104 Smoking Man on 01.06.15 at 12:24 am

#97 devore on 01.05.15 at 11:43 pm
#81 Smoking Man

I think if a bunch of immature, non compliant, miss behaving boys were openly joking about drugging and raping your daughter, you’d be reaching for the shotgun, not throwing a celebration party.

Your revolution is over, the neanderthals lost.
………

First off, Anyone stupid enough to go to university, vs starting a business I deam a complete idiot.

I’m not getting the same images you are.. I see stupid drunkin idiots. Trying to out shock each other on FaceBook. Got out off hand..

But the circling posssy is much scarier to me than the idiots.

This was the boys mistake. Posting on Facebook.

Had the written a fiction novel, they might be hero’s..

50 Shades of Grey ring a bell… Written by a woman, about how cool it is to be abused by men… Best seller.

Go figure…

#105 Observer on 01.06.15 at 12:45 am

In my opinion, if the central bank had started normalizing rates from “emergency” levels a LONG time ago, we would have a stronger dollar at this point in time and less of a real estate bubble-fuelling debt problem.

#106 johns never posted on 01.06.15 at 12:48 am

Sorry garth but maybe Calgary will go down but the rest of the country will accel lower gas prices mean more money for the consumer . just a message to you I know you won,t post this since you a commi .

#107 Sydcixel on 01.06.15 at 12:49 am

Garth ascribes to Calgary the title of “Canada’s hottest market (for delusional price advance).” Perhaps Kitchener-Waterloo deserves attention for the same title. Prices advanced last year to the point where one veteran real estate observer described the house prices as “insane.” Also, condos and apartments towers are being constructed at a rapid pace that rivals the rate in Toronto. This is occurring as the economy of the region shows signs of slowing. Glad I’m renting.

#108 Entrepreneur on 01.06.15 at 12:57 am

#94 Ret…I don’t think that the word “decrease” are in the government’s vocabulary. I would die from a heart attack if the government showed leadership and lead by example.

The oil slump in Alberta will hit our little community in the middle of Vancouver Island. Many have bought houses here with big oil money and many other big ticket items.

SWL1976…who will win, mankind or mother earth? My bets are on mother earth. Have you read Ray Grigg (hope spelling is correct) about our dying oceans?

#109 squidly77 on 01.06.15 at 12:59 am

http://www.creb.com/Seller_Resources/Housing_Statistics/

Cgy SFH pending sales down 32.14%
Cgy condo apt pending sales down 66.17%
Cgy townhouse pending sales down 35.29%

WTI 2008 $147 BBL
WTI 2015 $49 BBL down 65%

Nat gas $15.50 GJ 2008
Nat gas $3.00 GJ 2015 down 78% (This is big for AB)

5 year fixed mgt rates 2008 7.9%
5 year fixed mgt rates 2015 2.9% down 70%

Average Calgary metro SFH 2007 $505,000
Average Calgary metro SFH 2015 $506,000

Something gonna give, and soon.

#110 Jian Cosby on 01.06.15 at 1:01 am

#81 Smoking Man

Smokey, you really are my brother by another mother!

I hear what you say, but more importantly I get what you really mean. I do. And I dig it.

You and me, we’re on the same wavelength bro….

Come to my show, alright? I’ll put two tickets aside for you in Hamilton. Watch me put the femanazis in the back row in their place. Learn. Stand up for who you really are. Don’t hide behind trying to please them.

Real men like you and me, we can either hang together or hang separately.Your choice.

Doors open at 7, show is at 8.

Hey, Hey, Hey!!

#111 Country Girl on 01.06.15 at 1:07 am

#93 rainclouds on 01.05.15 at 11:29 pm
Sorry if you misunderstood my post. “Imbeciles” was used in reference to the suspended Dalhousie “lads” for their disgustingly, stupid behaviour.

#112 squidly77 on 01.06.15 at 1:10 am

Theres been at least seven years of pure rubbish coming from the Calgary MSM, realtor run blogs and various real estate boards regarding the health of Albertas housing market. Real estate investors have been pounded as a result.

#113 everythingisterrible on 01.06.15 at 1:26 am

#89 Smoking Man
Wtf are you talking about? of course we question the erosion of the middle class there are countless studies and documentaries on the subject. It’s not due to gender equity or the education system.
Smoking man, what’s senility like? Do you try and fight it? Or do you just embrace it so you don’t have to face your irrelevance. For you, ignorance truly is bliss isn’t it?

#114 waiting on the west coast on 01.06.15 at 1:28 am

#20 Mark on 01.05.15 at 7:40 pm said…

Isn’t it fairly obvious that claims of US ‘growth’ at this point are little more than propaganda?

I meant “steaming ahead” but yes I think the US is on the mend. My businesses (all US based) are up significantly over the past 2 years and the momentum is building. Now – my businesses definitely target an upper middle class segment and maybe its true that the middle/lower classes are having a tougher time. I do know that my employees have pushed for more $$$ and the market is more competitive for labour now. When looking at the restaurants, lounges, cars, etc., it appears that things are improving significantly. Like – Retired Boomer – WI points out – there is something tangible happening.

As I have mentioned on this blog before, my wife and I are very house horny and we love coming here to remind us to have patience. This is purely anecdotal but today, we were cruising the MLS to see acreages on Vancouver Island (and the Fraser Valley). There were way more listing for hobby farms / farms / estates than a week ago in the Fraser Valley. Also – a number of the properties were actually priced more reasonably even though they just came out of the gate. I think we will start seeing some interesting stats in the next few months for the more highly leveraged properties in the periphery.

#115 Joe2.0 on 01.06.15 at 1:29 am

So Putin says, listen here European comrades this whole European Union things a joke.
Look what those capitalistic pigs have done.
Come and join us in an Eurasian economic alliance or perhaps I cut off gas to Europe and tank NATO before you freeze to death.
Checkmate

#116 LowFatOil on 01.06.15 at 1:31 am

An extremely near-sighted, “Personal Service Provider” (who lingered under a lamp-post in Fort Mac at night), accepted 4 paper Notes in exchange for “you-know-what”.

The Notes were light beige in colour, with dark brown designs and small red & navy serial numbers. (Looks very similar in colour to $100 Cdn bills)

Moral of story, always carry a flashlight when you work in the dark…. and don’t accept four 500 Rubel notes by accident, as one loses a lot in the “currency exchange”.

4 x 500 Rubels = 2,000 Rubels = $40 Cdn (almost enuff to buy one barrel of oil).

#117 Kenchie on 01.06.15 at 1:32 am

#85 RealistvsExtremist on 01.04.15 at 11:15 pm

“So your suggesting that 1 million Asians/South Asians (or whatever new name CKNW gives them these days) in the lower mainland of which a LARGE portion do not even speak a word of English…..are all drug dealers?”

Obviously not everyone’s a “drug dealer”. However, in Vancouver, anyone of any race can and are members of the marijuana/drug industry. Just got to any high school. It’s all about networks, and each race sets up its own distribution network.

In particular, the Vietnamese are huge growers of MJ in BC. Funny thing is that my cousin, a massive pothead, recognized the quality of bud in London, UK has gone up because some of his dealers used Vietnamese growers in London. And my cousin is convinced that these growers were trained in BC. Whether that’s true or not, I’m not sure. But if anyone was to sniff out this connection, it would be my cousin.

Furthermore, my CBC (Canadian born Chinese) friend in North Burnaby has an uncle that is a plumber. He has had a grow op in their basement for years. It’s a totally plain house you would expect any young family to inhabit. But he had $2-$3k in extra income per month.

I recall my dealer friends estimating that 1 in 4 houses in Westwood Plateau (a nice area of Coquitlam) having a grow op. These were million dollar homes back when that actually meant a nice home.

Anyways, my point is that the bud industry is so ingrained in Vancouver/BC’s economy that people outside of Vancouver will never understand. Garth doesn’t (no offence). In fact, many older Vancouverites don’t understand either.

PS: I agree with the rest of your post. $71k means nothing…

#118 Econsensus on 01.06.15 at 1:45 am

#13 Lillooet

Given the fact that the average annual price of oil adjusted for inflation was less than $40 a barrel from 1990 to 2004, the current costs of production noted in the bar graph are probably overstated. Just as CREA spins their numbers, oil producers spin(inflate) their actual production costs. Additionally, inherent fat input costs for labour, equipment etc are already falling and they have along way to go. As for the higher non labour associated costs of unconventional oil production, those costs are falling in real terms. Unconventional oil producers are evolving and have deployed many cost saving production innovations and will inevitably employ other future planned and yet to be discovered production technologies. It may be that aside from major cut in oil production, $50 a barrel oil or less may be the norm for many years to come.

#119 hookers? on 01.06.15 at 1:53 am

I’m moving to Fort Mac!

#120 nonplused on 01.06.15 at 2:02 am

More topics after reading the post.

Ok this one hasn’t been trending today but can we please stop talking about how our children are going to pay the debt? The economy (the real economy, the exchange of goods and services) occurs in real time. Those people who had extra money bought bonds or debt, the money went to governments or corporations that either spent or invested it. In the case of corporations some of them might pay it back if they made prudent investments, but what the government spent is gone and you aren’t getting it back. The debtors will default.

I have children now approaching their 20’s and I can tell you how much debt they can service. None! Anyone who thinks the children are going to pay off the debt either doesn’t have a child so they can look into their checking account or is just plain simply delusional. The kids don’t have any money! And they don’t have any job prospects any more either! So who is going to pay off the debt? My guess is it won’t be paid, but if it is, do you have any money? That’s who they will come for. You can’t get blood from a stone.

Second, prostitution. I think it should be legal. Marriage is often not far off, it just involves a bit more exclusivity but Dog knows she wasn’t being exclusive before she met you. And half the time she didn’t even get paid, she was handing out free samples hoping to attract a sucker.

Anyone who has been through a divorce knows the marriage was all about money. Money money money. Sure, it’s also about kids but how is that measured by the courts? Money. If dad has all the money does he get the kids? Well it’s more fair these days but usually no, mom gets the kids and money.

Fact is that sex is about women converting a service they can provide into support and I don’t think the government should be regulating the form of it. It’s no different than men working for the man, or going to Iraq to get shot at and having to shoot back. But yes there should be some laws for instance age of consent and ban all the pimps. Drugs I don’t know about because well that’s a problem either way.

And number 3 would be the dentists. Forcing someone to do something against their consent is always wrong, so wrong it always needs a reaction. Rape is wrong. The school in my opinion doesn’t need to destroy these guys, but they have to send a strong message this behaviour, even as a joke, is not acceptable. It is no more acceptable than the women who would marry these men in the hopes of getting large support payments. Force or cheating is always wrong. The school is right to send that message.

#121 Jester on 01.06.15 at 2:06 am

#103 Washed Up Lawyer on 01.05.15 at 11:57 pm said:
‘Rollicking good discussion tonight. Can we return to the sex trade in Ft. McM? Is the most important metric “days on the market”?

Mark?’

*******

Judging from the stiffness of Mark’s posts, the metric that would get his juices flowing is probably the pent-up demand of first time buyers. :)

Smokey — what about you? Too inebriated to be an inspector, I realise, so how about doing appraisals? :)

#122 Kenny on 01.06.15 at 2:12 am

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/mobile/all-time-high-price-of-vancouver-detached-home-hits-1-million-1.2174154

Ctv story on detached homes breaking one mill

#123 Jester on 01.06.15 at 2:14 am

#103 Washed Up Lawyer on 01.05.15 at 11:57 pm said:
‘Rollicking good discussion tonight. Can we return to the sex trade in Ft. McM? Is the most important metric “days on the market”?

Mark?’

*******

Judging from the stiffness of Mark’s posts, the metric that would get his juices flowing is probably the pent-up demand of first time buyers.

Smokey — what about you? Too inebriated to be an inspector, I realise, so how about doing appraisals?

#124 whitehorn on 01.06.15 at 2:18 am

The biggest variable for house prices in Alberta, is the length of time oil stays below 65 dollars a barrel. If there is a V-shaped recovery then it will be a blip on the radar screen. If this lasts a few quarters or year, then a lot of damage will be done and house prices will start trending down significantly. I recall the collapse in 2008/09 it was short lived and real estate was basically unaffected. This present down turn if it is similar to 97/98 and 00/01 where oil prices took a good hit. Then real estate could have some big consequences in AB, plus not counting all the unemployed oil workers with spinoffs, plus migration out of province. I definitely would not want to be in the process of buying a house in AB, could save your self at least a 100k in a years time on the average house.

#125 crossbordershopper on 01.06.15 at 2:26 am

the going price for women in fort mac is 250 for half hour, and 400 for the hour, which is high. in hamilton, and most parts of southern ontario its 120 for half and 200 for the hour.
its about the wealth of the local economy and supply and demand.

#126 crossbordershopper on 01.06.15 at 2:36 am

i know people dont like to talk about prostitution,and this is a financial form, so i will give you detail of the business. there are many people who think that only a drugged up girl would subject herself to this, or that she is taken advantage of from a pimp. even though this and even under age girls do exist it is quite small in the overall totals.
in the 1970 and 80 the going price was about 200 for the hour, so actually due to the significant increase in girls willing to do this as a job, yes i said it, as a job, they get regulars etc and they are either single moms or girls who fall through the cracks. they travel from city to city, and others stay local so you get that too.
there are more prostitutes now then ever before, the liberalization of women has created a lot of lazy girls with low morals and low self esteem who will provide sexual services for relatively small amounts of money.
some of these girls dont do it very well, others are well, very talented. the vast majority do it with protection for obvious reasons, and a few crazy ones do it without.
simply go to backpage.com pick your city under escorts and its like ordering a pizza, she will be at your door in half hour.
now you know basically everything you need to know about 2015 prostitution in canada. i havent talked about gay market for men, its there as well.

Can we get back to talking about crude, and moist virgins, please? This is embarrassing. — Garth

#127 Suede on 01.06.15 at 2:38 am

Garth nailed it, Still not too late to get some big time cash flow positive RE in Phoenix my friends:

Compare to Vancouver

pfft…

no contest

http://www.thingsyouwontlearninschool.ca/the-desk/real-estate-investment-101-a-tale-of-3-cities

USD is only going to get stronger the next couple of years. Go to Vegas and Hawaii while you can (ok now i’m just fear mongering)

#128 Suede on 01.06.15 at 2:41 am

#84 SWL1976

let me guess, your favourite website is zero hedge?

Do you know how much money they make, you’d be SHOCKED.

And do you think they take US dollars or gold coins lol?

#129 Irish Stew on 01.06.15 at 2:45 am

Sitting on 100k cash w/ RESP, TFSA and RRSP all currently full – any ideas on where to put it w/ what is currently going on?

Looked at a cottage on the Lake, but I know what Garth thinks of that investment.

#130 Tony from Calgary on 01.06.15 at 2:47 am

# 34 Jon

Not much to explain, really. Go search for The Automatic Earth when you’re ready to seriously consider the ravages of deflation.

Until then, I’m sure there’ll be a lot of great discussions here about “balanced/diversified” 7% portfolios (and how stupid those people are who avoid the markets), how people will vulch all the undervalued homes when the housing market crash finally arrives, and how Harper/Trudeau/Mulcair are all somehow the worst politicans – depending on your political biases – in a manner similar to the divisive US right vs left / red vs blue political charade.

But, of course, no substance on what people really should be focusing on – increasing the sustainability of their lives by reducing consumption and reliance on fragile social/economic systems, investing their time/money in a community of like minded individuals who also share similar values, learning on how to protect their capital rather than putting it at great risk for small returns, and waking up to the implications of over 80 years of the proliferation of debt, cronyism, excessive resource extraction and overconsumption.

Cheers,
TFC

#131 millenial1982 on 01.06.15 at 2:49 am

#84 SWL1976 on 01.05.15 at 10:59 pm

Yeh, where do you sorry-ass people come from!? Still busting a gut from that comment.

#132 ronh on 01.06.15 at 3:56 am

so it’s highly likely the ECB will ramp up a bond-buying orgy by the end of the month, and breathe life back into euro stock markets.

So lets see if I got this right. Europe is in the deflation toilet, but the ECB will make stocks go up in value.
Something doesn’t jive here. Buy euro EFTs. Got it.

#133 LowFatOil on 01.06.15 at 3:59 am

I think some Readers may think my fictional story was offensive, so I have to give it a happy ending. ……..

There was a HAPPY ENDING for the “Personal Service Provider” who toiled in the dark of nights, under a lamp-post in Fort Mac in exchange for doing“you-know-what”.

The Russian Rubles she received, it turns out, were in Mint Condition, unique Specimens, and were sold to a Coin Dealer at Auction.

Fortunately, all this happened during the collapse of the 2015 oil price, and so she was able to buy a used house, car, fur coat, education, earned a Ph.D. and got laser eye surgery.

Moral of the story….one never knows what opportunities abound when the situation looks dire.

However, don’t take excessive risks, physically or financially. “Know your Limits.”

And if you have lost dignity, and self-respect, doing “survival work” of various kinds (men & women), to get by, your situation and the financial world, can change on a dime.

#134 Ed on 01.06.15 at 4:14 am

I’m wondering if this slide of oil prices will continue.

One side says that the Saudis are losing so much money by driving the market lower for oil prices, but the other side of me says that cheap oil will drive the US recovery.

It makes sense that the Saudis are heavily invested in the stock market. What they lose on oil revenues, they multiply in investments.

They said that oil would never drop below $90 ever again. I am shaking my head that it could ever break $50.

This is going to get worse.

#135 snobalofagus on 01.06.15 at 6:59 am

According to the city in Ab which i live my home value has gone up another $30 grand pushing it over the $400 grand mark. Good for the city raising my taxes another $75 buck. Chances of selling for that figure zero to none. The real turds here say “oh that city assesment value is always lower than your house is really worth which is confirmed as well by the NLB.

#136 Non-smoking Man on 01.06.15 at 7:21 am

My favorite drink in milk and I’m addicted to those candy cigirretes. I’m a bad ass that goes for broke in LV and recently turned 25 cents into 25K until Ceasers Palace couldnt hack my greatness and booted my ass out. I understand markets like no one else and I can write code that confounds all thoses math PhDs who wasted 10 years learning all that OOA crap. You people are all fools. All smart people know non smoking man ais always righti alough hes only semi literatee and has trblele splling

#137 Nemesis on 01.06.15 at 7:26 am

#RealLifeFrequentlyMimics… #BoozeFood&Fun…

http://youtu.be/veZOrXVHf7U

#JustKidding,SaltierDoggiez… #TheActualUnVarnishedSordidTruth…

http://youtu.be/ZO9BK4X_38s

#138 GeorgeSoonToBeRetired on 01.06.15 at 9:13 am

#81 Smoking Man

‘My point was if the boys are bulling the girls, the girls should bully them back. That’s true feminism. Victimizing the girls is a disservice to movement.

The whole thing got politicized cause machine with its track record (building 7, JFK) is terrified by immature, non compliant, miss behaving boys.. ‘

—————————————————————-
Huh ????????

Smoking Man, as Ronald Reagan said,

If you’re explaining, you’re losing.

#139 Polozified on 01.06.15 at 9:24 am

Meanwhile in Vancouver Sun land…
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Detached+house+prices+record+high+Lower+Mainland/10703768/story.html

[i]”That totally changes the dynamics of the housing market and it’s probably why we’ve seen slower growth in (the value of) apartments and townhouses,” Harris said.[/i]

#140 GeorgeSoonToBeRetired on 01.06.15 at 9:29 am

This is for all those parents, bank of mom and dad types, who have set their house horny kids up, prolonged their adolescence and encouraged their sense of entitlement.

What could possibly go wrong?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/son-fatally-shot-hedge-fund-founder-father-after-allowance-spat-police/article22310122/

#141 Tom Jones on 01.06.15 at 9:32 am

Garth – With QE euro around the corner and QE USA around the corner (will happen no matter what they say today), do you think an increased exposure in gold is a good idea?

No more stimulus spending is contemplated in the US. Gold is 100% speculative and pays no income. Why would you want it? — Garth

#142 Andrei on 01.06.15 at 9:43 am

Garth, I am a card-carrying residential RE bear and I agree with your point – however, showing the first 2 business days of January’s Calgary RE sales price stats as evidence? I would wait until mid-Month to draw conclusions.

Did I not make that clear? Don’t be a repeater. — Garth

#143 Mark on 01.06.15 at 9:54 am

“Gold is 100% speculative and pays no income. Why would you want it?”

Bonds aren’t ever repaid in anything other than bonds. And the long-term return of gold is similar to the long-term return of bonds and real estate — around the rate of inflation. The key thing is, gold is inversely correlated to bonds, so when bonds do poorly, gold tends to do well, and vice versa, reducing overall portfolio volatility and risk. Hence, a gold position has just as much of a role in a balanced portfolio as a bond position.

We’re always talking here about balance, and the need for it — so why arbitrarily reject such an important component of a balanced portfolio?

Because it isn’t. If you own the TSX 60 through an ETF like XIU you have plenty of PM exposure. — Garth

#144 Shawn Allen on 01.06.15 at 10:02 am

13 Lillooet – good analysis of Graph

I am trying to avoid posting weekdays as it is a distraction but thank you to 13 Lillooet for some thoughtful analysis of the meaning of the oil cost graph.

#145 pbrasseur on 01.06.15 at 10:04 am

When you live beyond your means you face austerity. Contrary to common belief austerity is not a political choice or a policy, it’s a consequence! It will happen no matter what.

That’s what happening to Europe right not, their standard of living is simply too high for their productivity level. Weak growth in just another way to get poorer so you end up living within your means. They are other ways, recessions, even depression or devaluation, all can happen when a correction makes you poorer.

Americans know this they had their correction and are now bouncing back, no doubt creating new unbalances as they go along. But for the time being they are doing great. This is a game in which you don’t have to be perfect, you just have to be better than the competition and to put it plainly the US is.

Canada is not better than the competition (the US), in fact we face challenges similar to Europe, we live well beyond our means and there has to be a correction before we get back to a sustainable path. There will be pain and this should become clearer in 2015.

Happy new year Garth and everyone!!”

#146 fancy_pants on 01.06.15 at 10:05 am

The house always wins. The hand of manipulation is just playing another round. Easy way to suck more $ from the minions. It’s a game. don’t like the position your opponent holds? – give the board a shake. catch rational investors off guard. confuse the rules. destroy confidence. steamroll the unsuspecting. When your opponent folds, buy in and allow prices to step back in line with fundamental values. Like taking candy from a baby. don’t bet against oil long term. you will lose

#147 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.06.15 at 10:08 am

The building trades here in Kelowna are very busy and demanding higher and higher prices for their services – too high. I’ve seen this before and it is invariably precursor to a correction.

That said this Spring is shaping up to be a banner real estate market as irrational exuberance prevails. Again invariably precursor to a correction. Beyond Spring…?

Corrections are not a bad thing as they merely take back that which was not warranted in the first place.

It is what it is. SHIFT happens… learn to ride the tide.

But, our economic model requires growth and the powers that be can always be counted on to do whatever necessary to promote that growth, despite the ups and downs, maintaining an upward trajectory.

Like I said; It is what it is. SHIFT happens… learn to ride the tide.

#148 charles on 01.06.15 at 10:11 am

Where do us sorry asses come from?
From the shuttered factories, mills and tool shops. From the food banks, unemployment lines, degree and diploma mills buried in debt from the starting blocks.
You used to recognize this before you scarred the shit out of Iggy and his handlers. I told you two years ago that the view from the Bay Street office was distorting your view of reality.
QE has not ended. Re-investment in conjured up paper is now the norm. Japan took the ball and soon Draghi will have a go.
Gold and Silver are the only real money today. Everything else has the substance of bitcoin.

#149 Need a better filter for this fine blog on 01.06.15 at 10:14 am

Garth,
To filter out the garbage, consider charging a fee to post a comment. When you moderate, you can decide what you do with the fee. If on topic or relevant, waive the fee, otherwise, bankrupt ’em. Not bad eh?!

#150 Smoking Man on 01.06.15 at 10:17 am

#138 GeorgeSoonToBeRetired on 01.06.15 at 9:13 am
#81 Smoking Man

‘My point was if the boys are bulling the girls, the girls should bully them back. That’s true feminism. Victimizing the girls is a disservice to movement.

The whole thing got politicized cause machine with its track record (building 7, JFK) is terrified by immature, non compliant, miss behaving boys.. ‘

—————————————————————-
Huh ????????

Smoking Man, as Ronald Reagan said,

If you’re explaining, you’re losing.
—————-

You’re right, getting my ass kicked on this issue.
Time to throw in the towel on my manhood.

We will have a public burning of my Indiana Jones hat and shades at the nearest YWCA.

I will give up smoking, and chewing stir sticks and toothpicks.

I will give up eating medium rare steak In favour of salad, without dressing.

I will give up JD and replace it with lotti coffee. While wearing pink socks and pink shirts.

I will join the Men Suck protests.

I will wire up electric shock cables to my temples and whenever an attractive female walks by and I get that funny feeling, I will zap myself with 500 volts.

I will strap a helium tank to my back so when I need to speak, I’ll take a hit of it so my pitch will be consistent with acceptable norms of today..

#151 fred thmpson on 01.06.15 at 10:18 am

Interest rate hike: 4 ways Canadians should prepare

1. Pay down debt

2. Lock in mortgage or line of credit rates

3. Don’t rush to buy a home

4. Sell the house?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/interest-rate-hike-4-ways-canadians-should-prepare-1.2890376

#152 Linda on 01.06.15 at 10:27 am

Yuck, I just scrolled through Smoking Man’s comments this blog post.

SM, you are extra creepy today.

Is this part of your New Year’s resolution?

#153 Meanwhile in the GTA on 01.06.15 at 10:42 am

Garth says-Smart folks delay buying decisions, waiting for better deals.

I think there was a time not that long ago when this statement was 100% true. Before credit was so widely available people would have to save to make a purchase and hence they had time to rethink their decision of “do I really need it?”.
But in today’s world where those under 40 never knew anything but credit I don’t think that argument “Smart folks delay buying decisions, waiting for better deals” holds water.
Today’s generation wants it because others have it and they don’t care if the price drops tomorrow, because tomorrow it may not be the IN thing anymore.

#154 OMG on 01.06.15 at 10:53 am

#92 Smoking Man on 01.05.15 at 11:22 pm

#86 OttawaMike on 01.05.15 at 11:03 pm
#52 Detalumis on 01.05.15 at 8:54 pm
“because the school’s reputation is at risk for having so many immature students in the class. They shouldn’t be in the program until they grow up”

#64 SM
————————————————————
Professionalism.
Have to agree with Delatumis. There is a certain standard that particular members of society need to be held to. This is not about so called Feminazis.
It is about medical profession ethics. It’s one thing to joke about in a drunken frat house stupour but to construct a FB page dedicated to it?
……..

What reputations, schools are a con job, a money making machine.. The entire premises memorize, behave , regurgitation.

All info on anything, free on line. In fact if one was to hang on the pathetic blog for a year or so, will know more than an MBA.

Put a dentist drill in my hand, have someone show me how to use it a few times, I’ll get good. Any thing I haven’t bothered to memorize is a quick mouse away.
……………………………………………………………………..

I’m sure you will appreciate proper education when you have fallen down again in a drunken stupor and cracked you thick skull open. As you lay there on the gurney, eyes semi opened in a daze looking up at the young 15 year old surgeon. Just as he is about to anesthetize you you hear him say “Oh shit quick google Intraparenchymal hematoma” I’m not sure how to do this Ive never done this one before! “Hurry doctor Billy” Were loosing Smoking Man” “Oh oh the internet is slow how do I repair shear injuries on his torn axons” ??????
Would you really want Dr Billy and his goggle team to operate on you? And that my friend is why you are an uneducated person who cares nothing about the education system. It is what it is, it may not be the best but just because you failed process yourself doesn’t mean everyone should follow your drunken footsteps.

#155 OMG on 01.06.15 at 10:54 am

BTW Smoking I wouldn’t put a dentist drill in your hands if I was paid $1 million dollars!
Now stick to your money stuff and stay off the teacher / education bashing.

#156 not 1st on 01.06.15 at 10:57 am

#136 Non-smoking Man on 01.06.15 at 7:21 am

You forgot to mention how your kids are geniuses and making $10,000 a day selling stuff door to door.

#157 Rational Optimist on 01.06.15 at 11:08 am

107 Sydcixel on 01.06.15 at 12:49 am

“Prices advanced last year [in Kitchener-Waterloo] to the point where one veteran real estate observer described the house prices as “insane.”… Also, condos and apartments towers are being constructed at a rapid pace that rivals the rate in Toronto.”

Do you have a link to where the price advance was described as “insane”? I was under the impression that real estate prices in KW were nothing special- I had read three percent increase for 2014.

You’re right about apartment construction, it hit records this year. I’m not so sure about it rivaling the pace in Toronto. It’s worth noting that the construction is mostly rentals and not condos.

#158 Arfmooocat on 01.06.15 at 11:15 am

High Noon on the Gulf Coast: Canada, Saudi oil set for showdown

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/high-noon-gulf-coast-canada-120357627.html

#159 Snowboid on 01.06.15 at 11:19 am

CBC story on how to cope with interest rate increases:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/interest-rate-hike-4-ways-canadians-should-prepare-1.2890376

Methinks they must read this blog!

#160 Martin on 01.06.15 at 11:45 am

If this is true (Garth) – then watch out USA.
Oil drop will hurt them too.

Texas Oil = Texas Jobs = US Jobs. Along with the surging gusher of shale oil and gas being pumped every day in Texas has come a gusher of new jobs in the Lone Star State. While the state has other sectors that are booming thanks to one of the most business-friendly climates in the country, the oil and gas sector in Texas has certainly helped deliver a powerful, energy-based stimulus to the state’s economy and labor market. In fact, job creation in the state of Texas has been so strong in recent years that the state has actually been single-handedly responsible for all of the net US job creation since December 2007, as the chart above shows. Without Texas, the other 49 states and the District of Columbia were still at a net job deficit of almost 400,000 in November last year compared to the start of the Great Recession, while employment in Texas has increased by more than 1.4 million jobs over that period. So when we hear about a recovery in the US labor market, a declining jobless rate and gradually improving US economy, we can thank the booming energy sector in Texas for its significant contribution to the country’s improving job market and economy. Without the energy-driven economic stimulus from the fracking revolution, and without the gusher of jobs in the state of Texas, there’s no question that the Great Recession would have been much worse and lasted much longer, and the jobs picture and overall economy today would be much bleaker.

http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2015/1/6/saupload_energy10.jpg

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2800475-my-top-10-energy-charts-of-the-year-for-2014

“Despite recent gains, however, the fossil fuel industry has a smaller share of U.S. employment than it did in the early 1980s, and the industry’s share of national economic activity is relatively small. After the end of the recession, between 2010 and the end of 2012, the industry added 169,000 jobs nationwide, growing at a rate about ten times that of overall U.S. employment. The industry’s output shares follow a similar path. The share of oil and gas extraction was 4.3 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) at its height in 1981, but declined to 0.6 percent by 1999. The share of oil and gas rose to 1.6 percent of GDP in 2011 as a result of the shale boom.” Source. — Garth

#161 Daisy Mae on 01.06.15 at 11:53 am

#1 Judy: “….and women should not have to sell their bodies to survive in modern Canada.”

*************

They don’t. It’s a choice they’ve made.

#162 The American on 01.06.15 at 11:58 am

I was thinking… I have many friends and business colleagues who live in Vancouver, B.C. All of them rent as opposed to owning. Yes, the cost of purchasing a house in Vancouver, B.C. is higher than Seattle, WA. But, I often only hear from them about how expensive Vancouver is to live. However, when I visit Vancouver, I have almost always found prices there to be similar to Seattle prices on most goods, if not even a little less. Which is why I always scratch my head when they complain as if to make me feel like I am living on the cheap, because I’ve felt I am spending more overall. I decided to do a cost-of-living calculator comparison for a person who rents (not owns) between the two cities. Results surprised my Canadian friends but not me or my American buddies. What this says to me, is you’d be an absolute fool to own property in Vancouver as buying a like home is about 40% more than it costs in Seattle. Conversely, renting in Vancouver is about 20% lower than in Seattle. Similar cities, similar city-proper populations, two and a half hours apart, vastly different job markets, vasty different GDPs, vastly different purposes, two different countries.
http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Canada&city1=Vancouver&country2=United+States&city2=Seattle%2C+WA

#163 IT.GUY on 01.06.15 at 12:08 pm

Hi Garth,

Would it be possible to add a voting button next to comments….similar to LIKE / DISLIKE and allow the user to sort the comments.

I understand this is a free blog and we get what we pay for, but it might make the comments section much more interesting by helping us see the most liked comments and let the useless comments that are voted down go to the bottom.

regards,
IT GUY

Response? — Garth

#164 Josh in Calgary on 01.06.15 at 12:09 pm

118 Econsensus and 13 Lillooet,

Lillooet is exactly right that the current price will not support the supply and demand equation for long. However, markets can (and often do) remain irrational far longer than you think they can. The lower the price goes the more companies will cancel projects, the faster production will drop and the quicker prices will rebound. I think it should take about one year, but will probably be between one and two. I’ve also heard that the Saudi’s have hedged their production about 1.5 years out so are not feeling the pain nearly as much as you would think.

Another point that may have been missed by most is the costs listed on that chart are likely all in costs for new projects and new drills. The cost to keep existing production going are much much lower, so it’s unlikely wells will be shut-in any time soon as most companies and countries still have bills to pay.

$50 will not be the new normal, but it may last long enough to feel like it’s the new normal. That will be the time to buy oil stocks again. In a year or two (whenever they have remained flat for a long time and begun their steady climb up), when people have forgotten that $100/bbl is realistic.

#165 not 1st on 01.06.15 at 12:32 pm

To be honest, the red army looks pretty soft. Been a while since they have seen real combat.

American forces look a lot more grizzled and hardened. If it weren’t for the nukes…well, russia could be 52 state pretty easy. I guess the US will have to settle for an economic weapon of mass destruction to take them out.

China..you watching?

#166 slo mo on 01.06.15 at 12:41 pm

so, gold and government bonds it is…

Deflation makes money more valuable and gold less. But go ahead. Tell us how it works out. — Garth

#167 Mike on 01.06.15 at 12:45 pm

#22 Jon – Albertan’s have so much debt because of all the rigger idiots that have absolutely no financial literacy. They make HUGE money $5k-10k per paycheck isn’t uncommon, so with all that money burning a hole in their pockets what do they do? Buy crap… A new $70k truck, but then they need another $20k of mods, and a sled deck to carry their new sled, plus their gold digging wife can’t be without a fancy new equally as expensive SUV, maybe a couple quads, dirt bikes, etc. I’ve even seen up in ft mac the kids having their own mini sleds, dirt bikes, etc. So if they piss their money away on crap like this, just imagine what happens when spring break up happens and they’re not working for a couple of months… Finance it all!

#168 Mike on 01.06.15 at 12:55 pm

Oh yeah, and like #79 #79 Gregor Samsa said – Same sort of news in Edmonton this morning radio… Edmonton houses have risen 7.8% since last year. I’m sure most people driving to work will believe it.

Also, I saw a friend Facebook spamming everyone this morning (actually for the last month) trying to rent their 2 bedroom condo in Saskatoon for $1800/month. HAHAHAH! $1800!!!

#169 pinstripe on 01.06.15 at 1:01 pm

the old geezers spend aa couple hours each day discussing the events of the day. Many of these geezers have been in the property ownership business for manyu years, some as many as 70 years, so they know what comes and goes. this is the knowledge from the old money and new money boys.

the drop in oil price is a short term step and will have no impact on the long term plan. the oil industry will continue to move along. jobs will come and go as always.

I ;am at the 88 yo mark and in that time frame real estate has always trended up in price. once in a while there was a dip or slow down buit overall the trend is up. today the value of property is higher than it was 50 years ago.

today the politicians will do whatever it takes to keep interest rates low even if it means to distort the numbers. raising interest rates is political suicide. whoever is the leader at the time will need to pack their bags and move away from the political circuit.

#170 not 1st on 01.06.15 at 1:05 pm

http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/01/05/chinese-real-estate-developer-buys-entire-town-north-of-whistler-british-columbia/

HAM spreading its wings

#171 Mister Obvious on 01.06.15 at 1:13 pm

#163 IT.GUY

Would it be possible to add a voting button next to comments
——————————–

The system at Vancouver Condo Info works quite well. Once there are significantly more down votes than up votes the comment disappears from view (but you can still see it if you must). That is the fate of at least 30% of the comments posted there.

#172 Pre-Retiree on 01.06.15 at 1:13 pm

In reply to: #120 nonplused:

Garth said it already, very eloquently:
“Where do you sorry-ass people come from?”

#173 Pre-Retiree on 01.06.15 at 1:17 pm

In reply to #129 Irish Stew:

First, the cottage will not be an “investment”, other than in your lifestyle.
I think, if I may, that Garth would tell you to go ahead if you think you can afford it. Life is more than just about money.

#174 slo mo on 01.06.15 at 1:17 pm

Deflation makes money more valuable and gold less. But go ahead. Tell us how it works out. — Garth
____________________________________________

quite false. last time we had deflation, the 1930’s, gold and gold stocks skyrocketed.

that’s how it worked out

If you think this is remotely like the Great Depression, jump in. Should be fun to watch. — Garth

#175 bdy sktrn on 01.06.15 at 1:17 pm

regards,
IT GUY
Response? — Garth
——————
ratings are fun. do it.

i know i will still read em all but its interesting to see which way the wind in blowin in ppls heads.

plus we all want to see smokey #’s.

yes!

#176 pinstripe on 01.06.15 at 1:20 pm

the spinoff jobs created by the oil industry is massive. it touches all sectors in alberta. some people do have debt but many of these same people in alberta are sitting on a bundle of cash in hisa ready to be released when the time is right. the same applies to most of the big corps too.

many of the old geezers in the alberta industrial heartland area had their land listed for one million but lately upped the price to two million because there are manyu people with money kicking tires around the area.

#177 bdy sktrn on 01.06.15 at 1:25 pm

Similar cities, similar city-proper populations, two and a half hours apart, vastly different job markets, vasty different GDPs, vastly different purposes, two different countries.
———————-
van is portland size, not seattle.

but… i spent a year in asia in 1991 (mostly japan) , the locals knew and asked about vancouver hundreds of times, i never heard seattle mentioned once.

seattle has much larger and better econ, no doubt.

but it NOT the only city in the country with a decent climate. americans don’t flock there above all other cities. There is no mass buying by overseas cash (yet).

Seattle would beat Van prices if all of california had canadian weather!

my my looks at the stocks going further on sale.

#178 saskatoon on 01.06.15 at 1:29 pm

#151 fred thmpson

it is funny because #4 is a question.

#179 Iconoclast on 01.06.15 at 1:33 pm

The dental thing is of course raging PC hysteria. What I saw, anyway, was stupid locker-room talk.

I guess The Outraged never heard of the classic pickup line:
“Does this rag smell like chloroform to you?”

But it does speak to poor judgement that these guys would be writing down their stupid locker-room talk in the age of raging PC hysteria.

#180 SWL1976 on 01.06.15 at 1:47 pm

Where do you sorry-ass people come from? — Garth

——————————————

Boots on the ground my friend. Front line blue collar worker who lives on the coast and fly’s back and forth to the Mac every few weeks to earn a decent living.

Do you think I want to fly here to work? Nope

Would I live here? Forget about it

So why do I do it? Well the story is long, but it starts with government shutting down value added work on the coast in favour of exporting raw materials all while giving themselves 40% pay raises for keeping the brightest minds in office. Thanks guys you deserve it!

Garth I appreciate this blog greatly and all that you do to teach financial literacy, but I don’t consider myself sorry in the least.

I have earned everything I have in life and expect nothing from anyone. I do however feel sorry for the people who think the next 20 years will be business as usual and predictable as the last 20 years

P.S. I would never fashion pitch forks for retiree’s. I have actually done quite well for myself will be just fine

#181 people in Alberta in denial on 01.06.15 at 1:48 pm

Canada is the most expensive oil to extract in the whole world. Alberta is toast with the new $40-50 oil normal and this normal will first hit a low of under $30. Oil sands are toast. Let me explain it to you again. Canadian oil sands are the most expensive to produce in the whole wide world. Alberta you are toast

#182 bdy sktrn on 01.06.15 at 1:51 pm

#173 Pre-Retiree on 01.06.15 at 1:17 pm
In reply to #129 Irish Stew:

First, the cottage will not be an “investment”, other than in your lifestyle.
———————
if you have kids and make it east to get to it’s a fantastic lifestyle investment – buy it to pass down.

#183 footydiver on 01.06.15 at 1:51 pm

Ok, I get your point and I usually agree with your posts; but using January to-date numbers is nothing short of ridiculous. It is 5 days old, more precisely, it is 2 business days old.

Other than that, this article is informative and a good read.

Then read more carefully. Add the current data to December’s (as stated). — Garth

#184 Kenchie on 01.06.15 at 1:52 pm

“My wish for 2015: a machine to judge political claims against reality”

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/04/economy-accurate-model-greek-debt-social-house-building

#185 people in Alberta in denial on 01.06.15 at 1:55 pm

Canadian oil sands need $80 to be profitable. $50 oil will not do it nor would $60 oil or $70 oil. We may never see $60 oil for years and years and years….. maybe never. We will be lucky if $50 oil is The new normal. Smart people hoping to find a sucker in Alberta are already to late to sell their homes.

#186 slo mo on 01.06.15 at 2:09 pm

If you think this is remotely like the Great Depression, jump in. Should be fun to watch. — Garth
___________________________________________

if it’s not like the 30’s then we’re not talking about deflation.

Comes in 50 shades. — Garth

#187 Capt. Obvious on 01.06.15 at 2:16 pm

I’m PRO adding a vote up / vote down capability!

#188 NorthOf49 on 01.06.15 at 2:35 pm

regards,
IT GUY
Response? — Garth
——————

Wouldn’t matter to me, I’d still be skipping past SM’s posts anyway, regardless of thumbs. Sorry SM, you fake drunk.

#189 Dub on 01.06.15 at 2:35 pm

Time to buy more U.S. equities.

#190 Ray Skunk on 01.06.15 at 2:40 pm

Re: comments and voting…

I like the Disqus platform used on the National Post site, among others. You can upvote and see responses in a logical, nested order. Comment in real-time and it’s already pre-programmed with all the filters to offer less censorship grief.

It’s free too…

https://disqus.com/websites/

It’s not free on my end. — Garth

#191 David on 01.06.15 at 2:42 pm

Nobody will make money if oil is at $40 something a bbl. Russia, Norway and the UK are already feeling serious pain so Canada is REALLY going to feel the effects of weak oil prices. Having the world’s highest price to rent ratios in real estate and the world’s most expensive to produce oil makes things look downright scary.

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/correction-time-the-oil-plunge-is-the-real-deal/

http://www.fool.ca/2014/12/02/10-jaw-dropping-numbers-from-canadas-real-estate-market-2/

#192 everythingisterrible on 01.06.15 at 2:47 pm

#181 people in Alberta in denial

You’re being a bit absolute. Do you think Oil will stay this low forever? It’s a temporary tactic OPEC is utilizing to maintain market share. Alberta is going to suffer, no doubt about it, but the oil sands hit a speed bump, they didn’t drive off a cliff.

#193 Smoking Man on 01.06.15 at 2:50 pm

#187 Capt. Obvious on 01.06.15 at 2:16 pm
I’m PRO adding a vote up / vote down capability!
……..

I’m all for it to, that way my 32 fans don’t need to waste time looking for SM posts.
Just head straight to the basement.

Also, ladies proud of those of you that came on and gave me a verbal bitch slapped. That how it should be done, rather than cry to teacher.

Good for you..

Another SM lesson played out in real life.

#194 Ray Skunk on 01.06.15 at 2:57 pm

It’s not free on my end. — Garth

Ah, poo.

#195 I'm jumping in. on 01.06.15 at 3:01 pm

I’ve waited long enough and now bond yields for 5 years are at 1.20%. Doesn’t that mean 2.2% 5 year mortgages?

Everyone that bought years ago will refinance and will have no need to sell for 5 years. I’m more and more sure each day that we’ve been very wrong on this.

Also, the BOC just said that we are moving into stronger headwinds. I think that means low rates for a long time.

#196 Marcus on 01.06.15 at 3:02 pm

Think Texas and Pennsylvania have a problem with plunging oil prices, don’t look North. West Canada Select (Heavy) crude oil prices have collapsed to below $35 per barrel (the lowest since Feb 2009). This is a 60% plunge in the last 6 months and has left the industry stunned. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-06/canada-heavy-oil-drops-below-35-rig-count-hits-record-low-january#comments

#197 Arfmooocat on 01.06.15 at 3:08 pm

Wow are they hammering Canadian oil on CNBC

20% of Canadian rigs shut down last week, etc. etc.

#198 Karl hungus on 01.06.15 at 3:13 pm

You people who think oil price is gonna be in the basement for years and years need a history lesson.

#199 slo mo on 01.06.15 at 3:13 pm

Comes in 50 shades. — Garth
_________________________________

no. not really. this is the problem with most people. can’t define things properly.

inflation and deflation are a monetary phenomenon and have little to do with asset prices.

stating that falling house prices and falling commodities are deflationary is simply not true.

Of course they can be, as I stated. — Garth

#200 RussianDrinkingDude on 01.06.15 at 3:36 pm

Selected Canadian bond rates:

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/

#201 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 01.06.15 at 3:44 pm

#169 pinstripe on 01.06.15 at 1:01 pm
today the politicians will do whatever it takes to keep interest rates low even if it means to distort the numbers. raising interest rates is political suicide. whoever is the leader at the time will need to pack their bags and move away from the political circuit.

I won’t vote for any critter who deliberately keeps interest rates low. Financial rates need to go UP to enable old folks to scratch out better returns on fixed income. And there’s a lot more old people coming into the voting pipeline than young ones.

#202 calgaryPhantom on 01.06.15 at 4:05 pm

Re: comments and voting…

I like the Disqus platform used on the National Post site, among others. You can upvote and see responses in a logical, nested order. Comment in real-time and it’s already pre-programmed with all the filters to offer less censorship grief.

It’s free too…

https://disqus.com/websites/

It’s not free on my end. — Garth

—————————————————————

I am a software dev. I can build the commenting functionality on your blog for free. Consider this as an offer.

#203 Form Man on 01.06.15 at 4:09 pm

#147 DA

Kelowna’s housing market is rebounding nicely from the downturn. What we don’t know is how much of this rebound is driven by Alberta wealth. We likely will have an idea by summer. There are a significant number of workers commuting to the oil patch from Kelowna these days. In addition, there are a significant number of local businesses fabricating and shipping goods to the ‘patch’. Perhaps all the hype about ‘Alberta buyers’ was simply realtor fiction, perhaps not………

#204 Form Man on 01.06.15 at 4:29 pm

#170 Not First

The ‘town’ that is referred to is actually a small subdivision comprising a couple of dozen houses just outside the village of Bralorne. These homes were built in the 1940’s for miners working the Bralorne mine. They are tiny and in disrepair. There are two mountain ranges and a large valley separating this hamlet from Whistler. In summer one can make the drive from Whistler in a little over 2 hours on logging roads ( the Hurley Pass ). In winter this route is closed, and one would have to travel via Lillooett from Whistler ( about a 4 hour drive if conditions are good). Bralorne is a gorgeous little place pretty much in the middle of nowhere………….
I will be amused if ‘HAM’ buyers flock there.

#205 Econsensus on 01.06.15 at 4:43 pm

#164 Josh in Calgary

You have to realize that perception in key. Whether it be real estate or oil, disingenuous marketing practices drive prices higher. If the majority of investors perceive an asset is undervalued, overtime the asset should attain a higher value. Every industry strives to maximize profits and intern many disseminate inflated production costs. When you consider that just over a decade ago in 2004 oil companies still made billions in quarterly profits when the average annual oil price was below $40 a barrel, it is reasonable to ascertain stated current production costs are lower and $50 a barrel oil is profitable.

#206 OttawaMike on 01.06.15 at 4:43 pm

#147 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 01.06.15 at 10:08 am

Ahhh.. Yawwn. (Stretching arms out above head)

Now what were you saying?

Shouldn’t you be out peddling used houses. I understand that good Realtors usually work a 60-70 hour week.

#207 Short Canada Bet on 01.06.15 at 4:43 pm

Arfmooocat on 01.06.15 at 3:08 pm
Wow are they hammering Canadian oil on CNBC

20% of Canadian rigs shut down last week, etc. etc.
—————————————————————-
Big money US Hedge funds that run the world have made LARGE bets that Canada’s housing bubble is going to crash and crash HARD! They will get their pound of flesh . Canadian oil sands are finished …. maybe forever.

#208 Short Canada Bet on 01.06.15 at 4:48 pm

David on 01.06.15 at 2:42 pm
Nobody will make money if oil is at $40 something a bbl. Russia, Norway and the UK are already feeling serious pain so Canada is REALLY going to feel the effects of weak oil prices. Having the world’s highest price to rent ratios in real estate and the world’s most expensive to produce oil makes things look downright scary.

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/correction-time-the-oil-plunge-is-the-real-deal/

http://www.fool.ca/2014/12/02/10-jaw-dropping-numbers-from-canadas-real-estate-market-2/
—————————————————————–

Nice post

#209 Mishuko on 01.06.15 at 4:59 pm

upvote / downvoting is useless. it allows bias by giving the herd the rome decision making effect…

I like this blog for the author and the characters in the comment section. If you can’t screen out the ones you can’t see maybe it’s not actually you don’t like it rather a pique in curiousity.

#210 Meanwhile in the GTA on 01.06.15 at 5:04 pm

Re: comments and voting…

My two cents-
although your comments section is not perfect it is well suited for those who pop back here a few times a day.
I would think that most readers do exactly such (especially Mark. ha, ha) and I know if I had to scroll through and see new comments mixed with old it would drive me nuts.
By the way the discus system is garbage if there are too many respondents, some times one thread can go on for pages.
Just my two cents, with rounding = 0

#211 Mike T. on 01.06.15 at 5:11 pm

please don’t ever add a ‘voting’ option

#212 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 01.06.15 at 5:12 pm

Well at least we smoked the Russians last night in Junior hockey. We had smiles for a while and the Russians barely grinned a smirk. They are going down with us in the oil free fall. Don’t fool your selves though, oil can not and will not stay low very long! Some one is going to flinch at the poker table and it will all bust loose!

#213 boonerator on 01.06.15 at 5:26 pm

Comment moderation would only be good if it did not add to Garth’s workload.
The blog itself is very valuable to me and I’ve learned in my short time here who to skip past.

I’m in Victoria and sold my house last summer, debt free in time for some deflation!

#214 Retired Boomer - WI on 01.06.15 at 5:32 pm

#163 IT GUY

Rating (voting) system. Yes, could be interesting….

Market’s look better than I thought -130. I had been expecting -180 or worse, pleasantly surprised!!

On OIL…. prices move up & down. This deliberate market price manipulation will end at some point. What damage has been wright, and where prices return in a non-manipulated market (yeah, like there ever has been one) is unknown.

To quote John M Keynes, ‘markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent’ still has meaning. Whether in stocks, oil industry, real estate…. the future is not knowable., yet the trend may be your friend!

Are we having fun yet?

#215 pinestripe on 01.06.15 at 5:32 pm

#201 Republic_of_Western_Canada

I won’t vote for any critter who deliberately keeps interest rates low. Financial rates need to go UP to enable old folks to scratch out better returns on fixed income. And there’s a lot more old people coming into the voting pipeline than young ones.

—————————————————————-

I am an 88 yo geezer and I don’t give a hoot what the return is on savings. I hold the entire jam can in 5 yr gic ladder with the orange man. my 2015 gic is at 2.55%. the mrs and I have enough to carry on with a big smile. at our age 30 thousand net is plenty for entire year and don’t touch any capital money. I treat myself to a can of sardines once a week and that is more than enough for me. wifie does not like sardines.

the kids are joint holder with our real estate properties.

Wow. The good life. — Garth

#216 Retired Boomer - WI on 01.06.15 at 5:34 pm

Tuesday is date day here. Ne, and the Mrs. RB are going out for or late afternoon cocktails, and relax a bit in this bitter cold windy day.

Ah, January… that’s why we go to Florida in February!

Later…

#217 markymark on 01.06.15 at 5:37 pm

I love the idea posted about a fee to post a comment, you got a lot of people on here that post and talk S^&T.

They don’t even know what there rambling about, Charge em!!

#218 Mark on 01.06.15 at 5:53 pm

“I’ve waited long enough and now bond yields for 5 years are at 1.20%. Doesn’t that mean 2.2% 5 year mortgages?”

Only for the most credit-worthy customers. The problem with just assuming that BoC rates and even GoC bond market rates will end up in mortgages, is that people assume that the risk premia against that specific asset class, mortgages and consumer credit in general, will remain static.

As seen in the USA in the post-housing bubble era, creditors tend to become a lot more discerning as to the quality of new loans that are issued. Since Canada’s ‘system’ of mortgage finance requires everyone to get a new loan at least 5 years, and sometimes, loans have to be renewed on an overnight basis (ie: floating rate financing), credit-worthiness issues can quickly work their way into the rates people actually pay, and hence, reflected into asset prices.

I personally believe a lot of people who bought in the past 2-4 years are going to be shocked in the next year or two when they need to go renew their mortgage loan, and find out that the best deal they’ll be able to obtain is the ‘posted rate’ from their existing financial institution. As nobody else will touch them without requiring a very risky new appraisal which almost certainly will show them to have a deficiency in equity beneath standards.

#219 markymark on 01.06.15 at 5:58 pm

How can Canadians who are willing to take the plunge short the housing market? Is there a index for that?
Stock, ETF?
Just wondering.

#220 waiting on the westcoast on 01.06.15 at 6:10 pm

The only function that would be nice is some form of nesting comments so that Mark and I could keep our repartee close.

Please don’t make it pay… It will turn out that SM is wealthy and he will bid up the online real estate and we will stuck reliving his life like some reality TV show gone bad… ;-)

What are everyone’s suggestions for sites that cover typical outcomes for a variety of financial scenarios? For example, if I wanted to learn the best strategy in a recession or in delegation or in a growth bubble.

#221 Nomad on 01.06.15 at 6:17 pm

“China Zhong Ya Group Hebei Canada-China Co” just bought the old mining city Bradian for 850 million USD.

2 hours from Whistler.

Houses are so expensive in Vancouver, maybe they think in 20 years people will fly from Bradian :)

#222 greedy amateur on 01.06.15 at 6:32 pm

five weeks ago I thought that, if oil falls to 50, I’m going all in, wait for nine months for it to climb back to 75 and harvest myself nice 25% profit. now I am not so sure. but still, if it hits 40 I am all in! :-)
as for Calgary’s real estate, well, no law of economics functions here so yes it in December it will be (slightly) more expensive than it is today.

#223 Canadian in Portland on 01.06.15 at 6:49 pm

garth, take the day off.

This guy wrote today’s post for you

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/canadian-housing-bubble-canada-real-estate-oil-economy/

#224 Bby604 on 01.06.15 at 7:06 pm

US 10 yr is at an all time low , rates going nowhere fast , previous poster is right people are actually going to be renewing lower than 2011. This 604 housing party is far from over , the music is still playing

#225 Hank Hertigan on 01.06.15 at 7:08 pm

I don’t understand why people think oil is going to rebound, simply because it has come down a lot recently.

Even at the $48 level at which WTI currently finds itself, the price of oil is still up 5.1% annualized over the past 20 years. In other words, one could argue, based on the concept of mean-reversion, that oil should slide another 50% from here.

#226 OttawaMike on 01.06.15 at 7:17 pm

Voting system-no but one of the car blogs that I read has like buttons and after 10 likes it gets highlighted.

If you are short of time, this system lets the reader sift to the popular comments quickly.

#227 Ontario's Left Coast on 01.06.15 at 7:35 pm

193 Mocking Spam

When will you realize, the only person here who has fans is Garth, AKA the author of the blog… You merely have a few hundred other posters who are desperately waiting for you to take a permanent vacation.

#228 Steevee on 01.06.15 at 7:40 pm

Oil prices were just another big bubble, no different to current Canadian RE and all the other bubbles that we’ve seen come and go. Frankly, it was past due to be pricked, places like Fort MacMurray are ridiculous.

#229 Ruane on 01.06.15 at 9:35 pm

RE: Upvoting/downvoting in comments section:

I normally just lurk around here and don’t comment…but I want to say that I’m (selfishly) opposed to adding any kind of up/downvoting. I love this blog and also love reading the comments section on this blog. Seriously, highlight of my day.

While it would be marginally interesting to see how people are rated by other commenters in general, I think the upvoting/downvoting would cause me some pain as I check back sometimes several times a day for new comments and might then be forced to search for them amid the clutter of older comments.

That said, since I normally just lurk…not sure I’m entitled to a vote.

On a different note –
Garth, I’ve been reading your blog for several months now and have been meaning to thank you. I’m 33 years old in Calgary and just got a new “real” job earlier in the year (meaning for the first time in my life I’m making a decent wage). As a result I wanted to buy a condo, and long story short, discovering your blog saved me from stupidly trying to buy a place I couldn’t afford. It also gave me the courage to start investing. Thank you!! Keep up the good work.

Love from,
Lurking Ruane

#230 nonplused on 01.07.15 at 2:25 am

Wow Garth going over 230 comments tonight, everyone must be back from vacation.

Maybe this is the future of housing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HXDu2U-CmkI

Funny I have one of these too but I always called it an RV. I’m not sure what the advantage is other than your own labor is tax free. Oh and you can put in better windows. But if you want to pay the money you can get RV’s with double paned windows too.

My RV is bigger than these tiny houses, has aluminum framing, integral Styrofoam insulation, air conditioning, a microwave, a decent size fridge, a 3 burner stove with an oven, sleeping for 9 (but it’s tight you better all be friends, good friends), lots of storage and a built in DVD player. Oh and oak cabinetry. Oh and a solar panel I bought from Garth. If it’s sunny and warm I never run out of power even if the kids watch movies before bed and I installed charge points from Canadian Tire for all the phone things. Not sure what the advantage of the tiny home is.

There are some disadvantages too though. If it’s hot and you need the air conditioner you need a lot of power. Sure the generator will run it but holy heck do you go through the gas. It works best when it’s warm so that the super fan is sufficient and the solar is getting good light, but you can’t even thing about running air conditioning on a couple of solar panels.

And then it’s also not great when it’s cold. The heater uses a lot of battery power (for the fan) and propane. Usually under those conditions the solar panels aren’t doing anything so out comes the generator, but my experience is even with the 75 amp 3 stage converter you are running that thing at least 3 hours a day. Solar is a much better program if you have sun, I’ve seen my system charging at up to 13 amps and it will charge all day, easily filling my 2 golf cart batteries. But if you have to run the generator, the batteries can only take the power so fast so the 75 amp rating on the converter doesn’t mean they will be full in 2-1/2 hours. The charge rate drops below 20 amps for the acquisition stage, the main part of the charging cycle.

Even more funny is when I see people with older trailers trying to charge by plugging in the generator. Ha ha, that old unit has a 5 amp battery maintainer and a converter that only powers the lights and stuff. Sure it works great if you are plugged in but you aren’t charging the batteries unless you run that generator all day.

Anyway, my point is tiny homes have been around for years and they are called RV’s, and they work ok if you have utilities (power, water and sewer. And internet.) Even in the winter a couple of safe oil style electric heaters will keep you going for less than a big house. But who wants to live all year in an RV?

#231 Jason Morrison on 01.07.15 at 11:01 am

I would like to know your source for the avg. $/BBL chart…?

I do not believe your numbers are accurate.

Well then, give us yours. And who are you? — Garth

#232 workingarchitect on 01.07.15 at 11:57 am

Yay! Calgary is immune!

Luxury home market hit new heights in Calgary (Calgary Herald – January 7th)

http://calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/embargoed-luxury-home-market-hits-new-heights-in-calgary

#233 Derek R on 01.07.15 at 1:17 pm

#225 OttawaMike on 01.06.15 at 7:17 pm wrote:
Voting system-no but one of the car blogs that I read has like buttons and after 10 likes it gets highlighted.

I like that. I’m not a great fan of threading systems so I wouldn’t want one of those but this highlighting thing sounds good.