HNY!

HNY modified

Well, so much for that. Stick a fork in Calgary real estate. It’s done.

Eons ago (at least last week), this blog told you sales had just slipped into negative numbers in Cowtown as plunging oil commenced its toll. Smart cowboys immediately listed and looked for buyers. But in all of December there were barely more than a thousand of them.

Year/year sales in the country’s hottest market choked, for the first time in almost two years. A string of 20 consecutive gains has now been broken, as sales in December fell 7.39% from the same month last year. But that’s just half the story. As consequential is an explosion in listings – new properties for sale in December popped 41.86%, while the number of total active listings climbed 42.3%.

Remember what happens when falling demand meets rising supply?

Right. Demand falls further, since buyers quickly understand this is all leading to lower prices. So why buy now? Less demand in turns breeds more listings (the dearly indebted scrambling to save their butts), which puts greater downward pressure on both demand and prices. Finally, if you think this will be contained to Alberta (poor, cold Edmonton and desperate little Ft. Mac will follow), you’re not paying attention.

Welcome to 2015. The year of Oilmerica.

The price of the main commodity Canada exports will probably stay in the ditch for some time. Months. Maybe the whole year. I have no idea where the bottom is. Perhaps this is it. Or it could be forty bucks, or less. But it’ll sure have an impact everywhere in this nation as government revenues are sliced, fly in/fly out workers from Newfoundland to Victoria are grounded, oil companies struggle and major projects are shelved, hurting suppliers from the GTA to 604.

For example, I talked with Brittany last week who called me from her Civeo base camp south of Mac, somewhere in the godforsaken tundra where she’s helping build a pipeline. Two days later Civeo, a giant company which provides housing for oil workers, said it’s laying off a thousand people. Oh yeah, and its stock lost half its value.

A year ago almost 80% of Civeo’s lodge rooms in Canada were under contract to the oil companies. Now, heading into 2015, that’s dropped to 35%. Last year the company spent $280 million. This year the budget will be more like seventy mill. This is not just a problem. It’s apocalyptic.

Remember what this blog has been telling you for some time about the Canadian economy? Well, it’s here.

Meanwhile the year of Oilmerica could hardly be more different south of the border. Americans will save at least $75 billion on cheaper gas prices in 2015, says the American Automobile Association. That’s a huge number – all of it dropping into disposable income. Already the US economy is seriously revving up, after but a few months of half-price energy. The economy blistered ahead at the rate of 5% in the last quarter, on the heels of the best six-month growth in ten years. Over 320,000 new jobs were added in November, on top of an average of 240,000 a month all year. Consumer spending is surging higher, along with confidence. Housing markets in Miami and San Francisco, New York and Washington are being called bubbles once again. Cars and trucks are flying off dealers’ lots.

While energy producers like Canada, Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela take it on the chin, energy-suckers like America, Europe, China and Japan stand to benefit. The greatest gain will belong to the biggest consumer, the USA.

So, expect this in 2015: A surging US dollar, putting downward pressure on commodity values. A robust and growing American stock market, taking the Dow and the S&P to new heights. Higher interest rates, as the Fed moves to contain the party in the next three or four months. And all of this will help some Canadian industries (especially as our dollar weakens more), like the lumber guys. But because so much of our condo economy is real estate-based, overall, prepare for more stumbles.

For investors, there are many implications. Like, gambling on oil could wipe you out. Also, the Canadian portion of your portfolio could disappoint, so it’s too bad that 70% of all investors here have 100% in Canadians assets. Yikes. Conversely, a balanced portfolio with two-thirds of its growth component in US and international companies should do very well. And, of course, you should keep your bond durations short (as rates edge up) and vultch high-yielding preferreds at improved prices. More later.

But it’s New Year’s Eve and I’m still writing this. Way past pathetic. The only thing worse would be reading it.

 

152 comments ↓

#1 Ontario's Left Coast on 12.31.14 at 6:39 pm

Happy New Year to All: FIRST!

#2 Bdy sktrn on 12.31.14 at 6:44 pm

Happy new year

Will rates really rise in 15, or more of the same?

#3 DON on 12.31.14 at 6:48 pm

Happy New Years Garth.

Thank you for the knowledge and persistence over the years.

All the best to you and yours.

#4 momo on 12.31.14 at 6:50 pm

Happy New Year Garth to you, your family, and all your blog’s readers! And may your wisdom, wit, and candour bring light to those who need it, a smile to everybody else, and peace to us all.

#5 ronh on 12.31.14 at 6:53 pm

The debt is coming home to roost. You need savings in one form or another. Happy New Year.

#6 Jimmy on 12.31.14 at 6:57 pm

Happy New Year to our host and to all readers!

#7 zee on 12.31.14 at 6:58 pm

Hey Garth

HNY

When do we get your predictions for 2015.

#8 Roman on 12.31.14 at 7:08 pm

This is easily the worst poem ever.

#9 MEANWHILE IN FRANCE on 12.31.14 at 7:08 pm

Happy New Year to you.

#10 Happy Renting on 12.31.14 at 7:09 pm

Happy new year, Garth!

I had a dream where I was attending some kind of multi-day conference where you were the main speaker. On the last day you came out on stage dressed as Santa Claus. I guess my subconscious is not very subtle, your blog is certainly the epitome of getting something (your advice and wit) for nothing (though I hope most endeavour to be thankful and civil!)

Enjoy some bubbly and have some fun! :)

#11 Waterloo Resident on 12.31.14 at 7:13 pm

Happy New Year Everybody !!

Now please sit down, this is going to hit you like a ton of bricks.

Doesn’t everyone here agree that FREEDOM to choose one’s own destiny in life is a wonderful thing?

Isn’t it great that we have the freedom to rent a house instead of being forced by our government to buy a house against our free will?

Imagine if tomorrow one of our MPPs passed a new bill were renters were charged 15% tax on their effective monthly rent, just to ensure that people would be enticed into an hope purchase so that they would enjoy the privilege of home ownership.

Don’t laugh, from what have just heard that is exactly what is planned in next years agenda.

Remember that stuff about us having freedom, and about how we are not really sure if Fluoride in the water is good for us or not, so we thus can make up our own minds as citizens and vote to have our local governments either keep pumping the industrial hazardous waste we call ‘Fluoride’ into our drinking water supply or have them stop adding it into our water; it’s called ‘FREEDOM’ to decide our own fate, just like you deciding to rent a house instead of buying one is called ‘FREEDOM’ to decide your own fate.

Well, an MPP named Bob Delaney submitted a petition in Queens Park that demands all of Ontario to be fluoridated, it will make it mandatory in the entire province of Ontario. This petition has only 10 signature on it, all friends of the Mr Bob Delaney himself.
(no, I’m not making that stuff up, watch the video below and you will see it is true.)

Guess what is next on his agenda for next year: Mandatory Home Ownership, I kid you not.

Don’t believe me? Then watch this video and learn yourself. Hey man, this is serious Sh!t happening right under your nose.

Petition To Make Fluoridation Mandatory
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=aN1jIpT9C5w

The Fluoride Deception exposes the truth about water fluoridation and the phosphate mining industry
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEZ15m-D_n8

Health Professionals Call for End to Water Fluoridation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yblka13FfCA

Fluoride – The Hard To Swallow Truth
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJGpsAGvCjw

Now while old studies showed that Fluoride was good for us and helped improve our health, newer studies using advanced scientific methods are proving the exact opposite.

Just like people in the 60’s and 70’s actually believed that smoking tobacco did no harm to us and some actually said that tobacco helped to improve our health, new scientific studies eventually proved the exact opposite.

Imagine if Fluoridation of your water supply was made mandatory and you had no free will to say no?

Imagine if Smoking of Cigarettes was made mandatory and you had no free will to say no?

Imagine if Home ownership was made mandatory and you had no free will to say no?

Prepare yourself next year for a new 15% tax to be applied to all renters, with the specific purpose of helping up to the path of beneficial home ownership, its coming. And no, I am not joking.

#12 Joseph R. on 12.31.14 at 7:14 pm

Civeo, which bought PTI Group earlier this year, already lost 49% of its stock value back in November, when it relocated its headquarters in Canada. It tried to register itself as a REIT in the US, but refused to do, which caused its share to plunge: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/civeo-to-redomicile-in-canada-after-discovering-tax-advantage-1.2781506

#13 Freedom First on 12.31.14 at 7:18 pm

Happy 2015 to you Garth and to all of the Blog Dawgs! Thank you Garth, and all of you for your contributions to my favorite financial Blog of all time!

2014 was another great year for me and I am really looking forward to a great 2015. May you all enjoy financial freedom, good health, and peace of mind in the coming year and beyond.

#14 TurnerNation on 12.31.14 at 7:21 pm

Early blog post. ‘Gartho’ must be going out bozzing with Smoking man.

#15 Brian Ripley on 12.31.14 at 7:25 pm

Garth said: “So, expect this in 2015: A surging US dollar.”

I think this is going to be a swan of sorts. There has been a lot of table banging about the US$ heading to oblivion.

If you look at the chart I mashed up of the USD/CAD ratio along with the Oil index covering the period from 2008 through now, it looks like a cyclical move with a bit more room to run:

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/swan-and-bear

There has been a lot of debt created in US$ in the last decade that has to be paid back in US$.

Along with the chart I included some recent news item snippets, one of which is going to be very bad for Canadians… it’s the Afghanistan poppy harvest story, the biggest in recent history and in part thanks to the NATO/Euro forces that kept the growers protected and well irrigated. That crop will be flooding the markets of North America with cheap heroin.

In Vancouver we have opened a heroin clinic:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/11/25/prescription-heroin-vancouver-salome_n_6215188.html

“The addiction is so severe that no other treatment has been effective,” David Byres, Providence Health

#16 not 1st on 12.31.14 at 7:27 pm

civeo=canary=coalmine

Hey Garth, how come some gal in fort mac can just call you up out of the blue? Why can’t we blog dogs just give you a ring sometime?

Go ahead. Make my day. — Garth

#17 JSS on 12.31.14 at 7:29 pm

HNY to you Garth and to the bloggies.
I’ve learned a heck of a lot from all of you – what to do and what not to do.

#18 I will on 12.31.14 at 7:31 pm

Now I’m not saying you are wrong but in order for real estate to crash in AB you have to have sellers willing to take a loss. Remember in 2008 – everyone in Toronto was waiting for priced to drop but it never happened. Even when listings doubled and sales dropped by 50%. Why? Because no one was willing to sell at a discounted price. Only those that had to did, and everyone overestimated the number of people who had to sell. You can quite me Garth : only when capital projects are cut AND PEOPLE LOSE JOBS will the real estate devalue.

#19 4 AM Sunrise on 12.31.14 at 7:32 pm

More on the legality of Ann’s story from yesterday:

I know of a widow who liquidated her assets and gave them to her heirs as an early inheritance. Part of the reason she did this is so that she can collect the maximum in CPP, OAS, and GIS. She now lives modestly on these payments. Is that unethical? She’s luckily of healthy, hardy stock and can still live independently. And she doesn’t get anything in return from those heirs aside from a promise to take care of her if her health does go south, and the occasional snide remark from her grandkids about how grandma’s “poor”. (Those little brats live up in the British Properties – if you’re from Vancouver, you know what I’m talking about.)

#20 Gary on 12.31.14 at 7:33 pm

Relax,
oil only creates 7% of the jobs in Canada. Even after including the spin off or related jobs the economy will be better off as manufacturing, chemical and transportation companies will benefit from lower input costs.

Thanks to Harpo for sucking up to big oil and giving all of those tax breaks instead of investing in other industries. Now the price drops and Alberta will run a deficit.

#21 Cash is King on 12.31.14 at 7:39 pm

Will we see a Canadian version of United States H.A.R.P. (Home Affordable Refinance Program) by the end of 2015?

Thanks to Garth for plowing the roads and the blog dogs for snow tires and spinouts.

#22 mitzerboy aka queencity kid on 12.31.14 at 7:39 pm

2015 happy new year all you dogs that read this blog

#23 Lillooet, BC on 12.31.14 at 7:40 pm

Oil will rebound big time in 2015 because:

– consumption is not falling, in fact, worldwide, it continues to rise – are people driving less? no, they’re driving as much as before in the same cars as before, maybe even driving more now that gas is cheaper
– with the booming US economy, Americans will buy more vehicles, more boats, more motorcyles, more RVs, will take more vacations, fly on more airplanes – so oil/gas consumption in the US will rise
– as the price of oil dropped from $100/barrel below $80 then $60, more production was taken off the market worldwide – the taps are slowly being shut off
– winter is hitting the northern hemisphere and fuel demand will rise accordingly
– a record number of vehicles are being sold in China and India, more highways being built every week

So what you have in the coming months is a continual rise in demand worldwide, and falling production. The price of oil will rise, it has to rise, eventually. Hang in there Albertans, 2015 will see a big rebound in the price of oil, I can guarandamn-tee it.

#24 Washed Up Lawyer on 12.31.14 at 7:41 pm

From snowy Ft. McM, HNY to you Garth, your family and your potlicker. I wish to express my gratitude for your work. Thanks.

Alberta faces some difficult times ahead with a $7B hole blown through its government budget over the next year. A declining real estate market will not be confined to Calgary, Ft. McM and The City of Eternal Winter. It will be province wide.

I feel for the good, friendly and hard working people from Sooke to Gander that I have met here and who may struggle over the next ensuing months. At least those who fly in/fly out are not shackled with a Ft. McM property (avge. price 50% higher than Cowville)

Best wishes K9s. Health, happiness and horses in hotel lobbies wherever you are.

WUL

WUL

#25 Retired Boomer - WI on 12.31.14 at 7:41 pm

Happy Gnu Year to All Doggies!!!

It has been a very good year. Final day a bust, but, hey!

I’ll not make predictions, especially when they involve the future. We will just have to live the dream to find out what happens in the future!

Best to All in 2015

#26 Waterloo Resident on 12.31.14 at 7:46 pm

So you don’t think our governments will screw us over?
Ha-ha, you are so naive.

Just take a look at what’s going on under your nose:

“$5,000 Fine For Tobogganing In Hamilton.”

http://canadianawareness.org/2014/12/5000-fine-for-tobogganing-in-hamilton/

QUOTE:
((( Bylaw 01-029 was passed by Hamilton city council in 2001 and states the following when it comes to activities in city parks.

While in any park, no person shall:
(a) arrange or engage in an organized sport or activity, unless
authorized by permit; or

(b) interfere with an organized sport or activity authorized by permit.
In addition to the prohibitions set out in subsection (1), while in any park, no
person shall utilze a designated area without a permit where same is
posted to prohibit or restrict such use.

No person shall, while in a park, take part in any game, sport or activity
except within an area specifically set aside for that game, sport or activity.

No person shall downhill ski, toboggan, snowboard, ski bob or sled in any area park unless otherwise posted to allow same.

While in a park, no person while travellng together with another person or
persons, at any time, whether on foot or otherwise, may do so in such a
manner as to occupy more than 50% of the width of any path or trail.

While in a park, no child of 16 years of age or less shall fail to wear a proper
Canadian Standards Association approved bicycle helmet while riding a
bicycle. “)))
—————————–

Listen if you take the joy out of childhood and the children will find other avenues.like drugs and other illegal activity. For God Sake let them play. Let them be children as long as necessary. Do not forbid them to be children.

Just imagine when your 5 year old kid comes back from a bike ride and he brings you home ticket for $5,000 that you now how to pay because he didn’t wear a correct helmet, or he and his friends took up too much space on the sidewalk?

How are we as parents suppose to show a good example to our kids and get them to put down the video games for a while and get out and have some fun outside like we did at their age and get some fresh air …if we are fined up to the wazzooo ?

And no, I’m not making any of this stuff up, read it for yourself.

#27 Porsche on 12.31.14 at 7:46 pm

Civeo Corp (NYSE: CVEO) was down more than 50 percent on Tuesday, following a lowered outlook for 2015 and the suspension of its dividend policy. These events were triggered by lower oil prices.

Civeo is not directly involved in the oil industry, but its business depends on it. The company offers housing (accommodation and food services) for oil workers in the U.S., Canada and Australia. As oil companies continue to cut capital spending plans for 2015 (as a response to the weak oil environment), the firm is seeing demand for its services fall substantially.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/civeo-loses-more-50-other-194053292.html

#28 gladiator on 12.31.14 at 7:55 pm

Garth, when personal consumption expenditures in the States are 12 trillion a year, 75 billion are, what, 0.625%?
I wouldn’t say this is a “huge number” as you state.

Here’s the link – see row 29. Numbers are annualized.

http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=9&step=1&acrdn=2#reqid=9&step=3&isuri=1&903=58

#29 gladiator on 12.31.14 at 7:56 pm

sorry, click on Table 2.1 and then go to row 29.

#30 El Barto on 12.31.14 at 8:18 pm

Happy ‘Nude’ Year as we say at Wreck Beach. :)

#31 Bby604 on 12.31.14 at 8:26 pm

Goldman Sachs top economist calling for a small raise in rates not till September, don’t worry guys the band will play on all through 2015, rates going nowhere fast

#32 HNY: Add Toronto Roaring Spring Prices in best hoods 30% up on 12.31.14 at 8:26 pm

Add Toronto Roaring Spring Prices in best hoods 30%up, hope you have loaded when it was underpriced!

you’ve read it here first!

#33 Nick on 12.31.14 at 8:29 pm

It’s true that slumping oil prices will affect the Candian resource sector (AND the U.S. resource sector BTW) but to a great extent Canada rides on the coat tails of the U.S. economy, so a boom south of the border will trickle up. This is especially true in banking and other financial sectors, as well as diversified retail, packaging, auto parts, etc.

I’m of the view that Canada overall is sufficiently diversified to see upticks in those sectors counterbalancing resource sector drops. So unless your portfolio is all oil, I don’t see financial armageddon ahead.

#34 Terrier on 12.31.14 at 8:40 pm

Happy New Year Garth and thanks for all of your fantastic work!

#10 Waterloo Resident

Great post!

#35 Victor V on 12.31.14 at 8:41 pm

Q: What account is best for U.S. dividend stocks taxwise – taxable, RRSP or TFSA? And why?

A: http://business.financialpost.com/2013/04/16/where-should-i-hold-u-s-dividend-stocks/

===================================

HNY to Garth and to all you dogs of the blog.

Champagne is fleeting, but sheltering another $5,500 into your TFSAs in the New Year is ever lasting…

#36 EvilMagpie on 12.31.14 at 8:42 pm

Thanks for all your posts over the years, Garth. This blog made me second-guess the purchase of a garage with a house attached to it in Calgary.
Now that I’m in Salt Lake county, if I really wanted to buy a house, I can get a decent place for the upper 100s. That and I can fill up my Town Car for $40. I’m just disappointed that the US isn’t following Canada’s lead in increasing the Roth IRA maximum contribution to 10K.

#37 CPG on 12.31.14 at 8:51 pm

Happy new year Garth, Dorothy, Bandit and all the blog dogs.

#38 Smoking Man on 12.31.14 at 8:59 pm

#13 TurnerNation on 12.31.14 at 7:21 pm
Early blog post. ‘Gartho’ must be going out bozzing with Smoking man.

His dog and his wife won’t allow it.. Can you blame them..

Plus in Atlantic City..

Really Gartho here, not a chance, safe and diversified.. Is his game.

Not me….

#39 nonplused on 12.31.14 at 9:07 pm

Garth, Garth, Garth. Every dollar a petrol buyer gains due to lower gas prices is a dollar an oil worker looses. There is no gain to the economy, just a redistribution. Only the import export thing matters.

Laid off oil workers do not buy things. Figure it out.

#40 Ogopogo on 12.31.14 at 9:12 pm

Happy New Year, blog dawgs and the Hon. Garth Turner!

What a tremendous way to end the year: yet another of Garth’s sage predictions is coming to pass in the land of truck nutz and quicksand…er… oil sands.

As for me and my house, I’ve already preset my Tangerine checking account to transfer $5,500.00 each (wife and yours truly) to our respective Questrade TFSAs on the 1st, which means that even as the fireworks are exploding above Kelowna my Tax Free Slave Account will be working tirelessly to pump out more sweet cash in 2015.

Now to get ready for a special dinner with the missus and festivities, all a mere steps away from our RENTED condo downtown.

(Liquid) life is beautiful! HNY!

#41 Steevee on 12.31.14 at 9:16 pm

“The only thing worse would be reading it”. Ha ha, thanks a lot Garth.

Happy New Year, GT. You rock, mate.

#42 pravchaw on 12.31.14 at 9:16 pm

Civeo was $24 per share on Sep 24th – now its $4. Tells you whats in store for cowtown housing. Jana Partners LLC (a hedge fund) sold its entire Civeo stake (12 million shares) yesterday for $4.21. They must have taken a complete bath – looks like big rat has left the ship – this is going down to 0.

#43 Ret on 12.31.14 at 9:16 pm

Calgarian bro reports that layoffs have already started in the oil patch. In one case the announcement was made early in the week and pink slips went out to up to 20 year employees that Friday. Workers were shocked at the how fast the lay-off notices came out.

So much for the shortage of skilled workers and the TFW problem. Workers with skills specific to the O&G industry are very concerned about where this is all going.

Nat gas closed at 2.89 today. I wonder what it will be in July?

Gasoline at Costco in Calgary 78 cents/litre.

Bro says that their operation looking to play hardball with up coming lease renewal on Class A office space downtown.

Could Albertan REIT properties get slammed with higher interest rates, declining rents and increased vacancies all at the same time?

#44 MGTOW on 12.31.14 at 9:19 pm

Happy New Year to all.

Alberta’s housing market is cooling off? FINALLY.
I thought their market would never cool off. Just shows you how wrong I was, right?

All this talk going on last year about PEAK OIL had me looking at Tesla cars, thinking that just might be the future for us as far as cars go, but now it seems we are flooded in cheaper oil, so I’m just wondering if maybe a big gas guzzling V8 or turbo V6 vehicle would be a sane buy after all?

Sort of reminds me of all the metal heads that was predicting that gold would go to the moon. Of course we know how that has ended up badly for those gold bugs right?

“Life is like a box of chocolates……………..”

I listened to a guy’s advice here and bought some UPRO and SPXL, but I like to sell at year’s end to lock in Capital gains / losses. Makes doing income taxes easier. I sold on Monday around 2:50 and then I felt “What if I did something incredibly dumb by selling?”
Guess what ; over the past 2 days those pigs dropped almost 5% ! I have no idea what’s happening, I guess others are copying my move to sell at year end and then buy back in the start of the next year? Looks like it.
I’ll be buying back tomorrow, but what if it keeps falling like the Alberta real estate market is starting to fall? So now i’m worried.

#10 WATERLOO RESIDENT:
Is any of that true, is Mr. Bob Delaney out of his friggin mind? He should be given a public whipping for being so stupid. Isn’t he the same guy who is involved in that 1.5 Billion dollar Gas Plant scandal? How much money did he get for that crime to Canada? I wonder how much he’s getting paid to make DRINKING CARCINOGENS mandatory. Lets tie him down and make him drink a gallon of that fluoride stuff he’s trying to push on us, he would be sick (or gone) in less than a day.

If a guy like him made it mandatory to drink a glass of Rat Poison a day, would anyone in Canada really care? I mean, look at it this way: How many people read this blog and listen to Garth (almost no one), but look at how almost everyone watches home decorationg TV programs or reality TV shows. (everyone). That is why housing in Canada is almost a religion, it is because no one thinks for themselves, they just follow the pack.

They could pass a bill making it mandatory to add Rat Poison to the drinking water tomorrow and no one would know why people suddenly start coming down with weird skin rashes or stomach cancers, they would blame it on a ‘bad diet’ or ‘exposure to the mid day sunlight’, and the people would actually believe it. Then they would go back to talking to their friends how they plan to buy a 3rd or 4th investment property next year in hopes of flipping it for a quick profit.

I’m going to keep my eye on this story about Fluoride, that is some of the strangest stuff I’ve heard about in a long time and if they start placing Fluoride posion back into the water I’m going to my sister’s house each week to load up on well water from her house instead.

I heard eaven bottled water has that Fluoride stuff added to it. I wonder why they would do that?

I looked at my toothpaste, thinking okay, that’s fine, I don’t have to worry right. WRONG. guess what it says on the label: Don’t ingest the stuff, its a poison. So its okay to brush with poison, but not to injest it? If it is slowly absorbed into my teeth and then into my body, Isn’t that the same thing?

I went online and did some digging, and this is what I found:

[i] “One of the first things to look at is a tube of toothpaste clearly carries the warning: “Do not swallow,” and “in case of accidental ingestion, contact the poison control center.”
The amount of fluoride they’re talking about is a quarter milligram of fluoride, contained in a pea size amount of toothpaste.
But here is the kicker, This is the same amount of fluoride you find in 8 oz of water. Yet toothpaste carries a “Do not swallow” warning, whereas you’re typically told to drink eight 8oz glasses of water each day, without any concern for the amount of fluoride you will ingest. [/i]

http://www.greenmedinfo.com/blog/why-does-toothpaste-not-fluoridated-water-carry-warning

All I can say is: “What the ****?”

#45 Nomad on 12.31.14 at 9:23 pm

More pathetic is me reading your blog, but I’m making mulled wine meanwhile, so there you go.

Today I sold my ZEB canadian bank ETF in my RRSP and replaced it with some ZUB US bank ETF. I now have more US banks market value than CAD bank market value.

I cannot wait to see how much preferred will (over)react to interest rates. I hope they do so I my soon to retire dad can buy some for a great price.

#46 Janet on 12.31.14 at 9:24 pm

Gasoline Prices Fall By $1.00 Per Gallon
• Consumer Fills Up A 16 Gallon Tank Saving $16 (+16)
• Gas Station Revenue Falls By $16 For The Transaction (-16)
• End Economic Result = $0

Never run a gas station, have you? — Garth

#47 Derek R on 12.31.14 at 9:25 pm

#10 Waterloo Resident on 12.31.14 at 7:13 pm wrote:
Imagine if tomorrow one of our MPPs passed a new bill were renters were charged 15% tax on their effective monthly rent, just to ensure that people would be enticed into an hope purchase so that they would enjoy the privilege of home ownership.

Don’t laugh, from what have just heard that is exactly what is planned in next years agenda.

I can’t help smiling just a little, WR. If this goes through it will prove to be a classic case of unintended consequences. It’s a well-known fact that the person who is legally obliged to pay isn’t always the person who ends up with the bill.

This tax may be aimed at renters but it will come out of landlords’ pockets in the long run. Reason being that landlords already charge renters as much as they can afford. So if the government adds 15% on top, renters will feel the pain immediately and respond by looking for smaller, cheaper accommodation at the same total price that they were paying before.

End result? Landlords take a 13% cut in rents. Government finds its extra rental tax revenue allows it to cut other taxes (or increase spending of course).

Landlords aren’t going to stand for a loss in revenue like that, so I would expect to see some lobbying from them to kill the tax dead before it sees the light of day.

However if they’re daft enough to let it pass, it’s not going to affect the renters long-term except possibly by cutting their overall tax bills.

#48 Big English on 12.31.14 at 9:29 pm

Happy New Year and thanks Garth.

Operation, claim back my TFSA is under way (moving money out of the orange guys shorts) the ETF’s are paying me not the mutual fund manager

#49 Herb on 12.31.14 at 9:33 pm

Yea, reading the blog on NYE is pretty pathetic, but old habits are hard to break. So have a good one, everybody.

#50 Banjopete on 12.31.14 at 9:35 pm

Thanks Garth! I’ll keep bathing in the lameness of this blog. Go Oilmerica go! and thanks for the entertainment blog dogs. Even you, you gold bugs, for making me laugh with all the fiat currency talk.

#51 HNY! | Realties.ca on 12.31.14 at 9:38 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2014/12/31/hny/ […]

#52 3s on 12.31.14 at 9:42 pm

Happy new year from down under!

#53 Half Full on 12.31.14 at 9:44 pm

Happy New Year Garth!

#54 Greg W, Oakville on 12.31.14 at 9:50 pm

Hi #10 Waterloo Resident,
Thanks for the info.
I hadn’t heard about this MPP’s other idea yet “Mandatory Home Ownership.” I know about his other misguided/misinformed idea you mentioned & Thanks for the links. You will not find my name on that petition you can be sure. I’ll stop myself there before I regress…

Happy new years everyone!
And thanks for your informative blog Garth. I’m sure you have help more than a few people in your own special way.

#55 Mishuko on 12.31.14 at 9:54 pm

Just like my martial arts instructor you taught the same thing. Be liquid.

Happy new year Garth! Appreciate your hard efforts.

#56 omg the original on 12.31.14 at 10:01 pm

Congratulations Garth, on having made it through yet another year of this “pathetic” blog. You are really doing a service in at least getting basic concepts of saving and investing on some peoples’ radar screen.

I am in awe of your tenacity in writing the blog 6×52, but in complete disbelief that you can vet every comment left.

Seriously, some days you must have a really hard time sitting down to review the comments. (And we do not even get to see the truly wacko and abusive ones.)

Happy New Years from Vancouver Island

#57 John in Mtl on 12.31.14 at 10:03 pm

Happy new year, Monsieur Grath. And, Merci, for all that you do here, you’re not always preaching in the desert.

John

#58 DeFrauded2 on 12.31.14 at 10:07 pm

Happy New Year’s to One ( Garth ) and All ( Bloggers )

I am more unsure than ever as to what 2015 portends… Depends on who you read, and what you want to believe. I have believed most of what Garth has been discussing most of the years, and own all the books he has published. Good reading and good advice. Especially as it applies to RE!

My financial planner is still in jail, accused of having defrauded millions from never to be retirees like me. He is a flight risks so bail denied, resides in Milton after almost 3 years in remand already. No conviction yet. Trial this coming summer. So that might be a good thing, perhaps he is warming up space for others inclined to defraud others in Ponzi schemes yet to be charged.

So all the good news about the US… in my mind has been tempered by the likes of ;

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan
http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/alan-greenspan-federal-reserve-economic-growth-recovery/2014/12/30/id/615608/#ixzz3NPv4uYZE

Admittedly he is old, past his prime like myself… What does he know?

Dr Paul Craig Roberts, creator of Reaganonomics, retired WSJ editor also carries a negative prospect for the future. I’m not sure if I believe him either.

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/12/29/outlook-new-year-paul-craig-roberts-2/

The jury is out perhaps 2015 will have us living in interesting times indeed.

I sit in hear New Year’s Eve across the river from the Big Apple waiting for others to complete their celebration within the masses of humanity at the Square. I’m not there, I could be, but I don’t like crowds, and I don’t like the cold. If I were much younger then maybe I would see it differently.

I prefer to appreciate the beauty of the little things in life, grandkids, Border Collies, twin turbines. So bloggers, be kind to your neighbour, your spouses, and dogs, and be thankful for houses and blogs and the time you have been granted to appreciate them all!

My perspective on life from on high… Not high… (LOL)

http://randomtracks.com/2014/12/31/virtual-world-truth-and-reality/

Happy New Year, and Welcome 2015!

#59 not 1st on 12.31.14 at 10:07 pm

#23 Lillooet, BC on 12.31.14 at 7:40 pm

Think you are reading the tea leaves upside down friend;

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/12/30/why-oil-prices-wont-be-bouncing-back-any-time-soon/?__lsa=a2bc-0a6b

#60 JSS on 12.31.14 at 10:34 pm

#43 Ret on 12.31.14 at 9:16 pm
Calgarian bro reports that layoffs have already started in the oil patch.

—-

What company, may I ask? Maybe give a hint…

#61 cramar on 12.31.14 at 10:36 pm

“But it’s New Year’s Eve and I’m still writing this. Way past pathetic. The only thing worse would be reading it.”

Worse yet, commenting on it.

#62 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 12.31.14 at 10:38 pm

Waalll, sorta-kinda.

Despite the pickup in consumerist activity in the U.S., recent all-time record prices, of the U.S. market indices at least, show that it’s not undervalued. If anything, their economy is finally catching up with an overvalued market. Don’t know if I’d really want to jump into the NYSE at this point, without a significant fear-based pullback first.

And the deal with Civeo was a relief to the PTI Group. They finally got a chance to dump one of their woefully worn-out temporary ‘camps’ (Athabasca lodge) onto Houston investors. It probably had been in use for a couple of DECADES; from back when heavy cigarette-smoking in hotels was commonplace. It had a lousy cafeteria/kitchen to boot. The only thing it had going for it was as a check-in point for the charter flights (which have been shut down now) in/out of the big private airstrip, as well as a nondescript worn-out Tim Hortons.

The camp across the road (BREL) has a great cafeteria/kitchen (and the only bar around) but it too has a couple of old mold-infested wings which really should be demolished. These complexes are big Soviet-style places, with about 15 three-storey wings with maybe 30 rooms per floor. I’m guessing just shy of 2000 rooms apiece.

They (and others in the region) were booked for some multi-billion-dollar projects over the last couple of years. Those have mostly completed now. So regardless of any oil price drop, they would have had massive overcapacity anyway at this point. Sort of like the Chinese steel industry.

Same with Calgary, to a point. A lot of the core engineering for the completed projects was itself finished many months ago. The main thing 50-dollar WTI is accomplishing is to postpone much design work on new projects (read ‘still more production capacity’). Certainly, Calgary is turning down into another cold cycle, but that will mainly impact the fools who overbought with near-100% financing.

Fort McMurray OTOH, is still going gangbusters. Just try to get a seat in a good restaurant without a reservation. It’s nuts. The city mostly supports ongoing operations though, and that won’t change much as all the billions have already been sunk. Owners want to see at least some production and pay-back at least.

#63 chapter 9 on 12.31.14 at 10:46 pm

Don’t hold your breath on oil prices rebounding any time soon. The Saudi’s have little interest in seeing their enemy Iran flush with cash to finance their agenda of expanding their military and the last thing they want is nuclear capability with the help of Russia.
Iran has a sophisticated navy which threatens the Gulf oil states and the Saudis ability to export oil today.
The one weapon they have is oil and wealth so if it means they run deficits ($38 billion right now) they can weather these minor short falls and still retain market share. Power and religion, a deadly combination.

Happy New Year Everyone !!

#64 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 12.31.14 at 10:47 pm

#59 not 1st on 12.31.14 at 10:07 pm

#23 Lillooet, BC on 12.31.14 at 7:40 pm

Think you are reading the tea leaves upside down friend;

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/12/30/why-oil-prices-wont-be-bouncing-back-any-time-soon/?__lsa=a2bc-0a6b

The sad part about all this is that oil has always been a finite, non-renewable critical resource. Exploiting it politically in an uncontrolled fashion is going to make slamming into the wall of eventual depletion that much more damaging and painful.

#65 Washed Up Lawyer on 12.31.14 at 11:01 pm

Flouride and mandatory home ownership. Now this pathetic blog is getting interesting. I guess gold and tin foil are passé. Tobogganing in Hamilton was always pathetic.

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.14 at 11:10 pm

no worries Garth.
The only thing MORE pathetic than you writing this on New Years Eve…….is us blogdogs reading it.

As actress Carole Lombard once commented to a reporter that asked her what her New Years plans were…..
“New Years is for amateurs”.

#67 McFly on 12.31.14 at 11:13 pm

Just want to join in and say thank you Garth. I’ve been reading your blog since July and appreciate all the work you put into this. Your humor and insight has become a must read for me everyday. Have a safe New Years.

#68 Yuus bin Haad on 12.31.14 at 11:13 pm

#10 (I have you as #11) Waterloo Resident

The case against fluoridation was eloquently presented by United States Air Force Brigadier General Jack D. Ripper in the mid 60s (following up on the fine work of Gordon Sinclair a decade before that). There are probably some references to this on the Interweb somewhere.

#69 Joe Calgary on 12.31.14 at 11:37 pm

Somehow I am doubtful prices in Calgary will go down even with slumping sales and increasing inventories. Economics does not apply here, house hormones run wild here in the west and house horniness is engrained in the genetic code of Canadians.

#70 Bottoms_Up on 12.31.14 at 11:41 pm

Government in Oct. 2015: minority Liberal.

Oil price in Dec. 2015: $80

Bank of Canada overnight (prime business) rate in Dec. 2015: 3%

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/daily-digest/

#71 Bottoms_Up on 12.31.14 at 11:46 pm

#11 Waterloo Resident on 12.31.14 at 7:13 pm
———————————————–
Stop it would you with the propaganda against fluoridation. So what exactly are the harms from low exposure to fluoridated water?

That’s right, there aren’t any (ps. I’m waiting for you to provide links to peer reviewed research).

Health Canada has top notch scientists look into this issue….the worst problem with flouridation is potential staining of baby teeth….yes, that’s right, ‘staining’.

So guess what? The benefits outweigh the risks. By a long shot. Believe the experts….scruitinize the hyperbole.

#72 Obvious Truth on 12.31.14 at 11:47 pm

If you’re doing the right thing every year has a chance to be a great year.

To health and happiness!

What will be in the world will be. We have very little control of it. The only thing we can control is how individually we prepare for and deal with it.

#73 Bottoms_Up on 12.31.14 at 11:48 pm

and if you actually want a reliable source on fluoridation, as opposed to youtube posts:

http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/hl-vs/iyh-vsv/environ/fluor-eng.php

#74 Montellino on 01.01.15 at 12:03 am

Happy New Year to all !!!

#75 april on 01.01.15 at 12:04 am

#69
What do you think was going on in all these other countries where prices shot up and now look at them.

#76 gladiator on 01.01.15 at 12:10 am

Come on, fellow dogs, who in their right mind will accept to drink fluoridated water because “it keeps your teeth healthy”?
This is the same as eating hand cream because it keeps your skin smooth. Stoopid, isn’t it?
Putting fluoride on your teeth in the dentist’s office makes sense because it’s applied directly and for a short time. Not so much with daily consumption of this stuff and it being absorbed by all parts of your body.

That’s why I now have a Berkey with activated alumina filter. I am not promoting Berkey, btw.
Garth, if you decide to delete something here – please do not delete the first part of my message. HNY!

#77 nonplused on 01.01.15 at 12:15 am

#25 Waterloo Resident

I agree with the jist of your post, you can’t legislate good manners. But I can tell you about some of the bad things people do on their own that encourage some regulation.

So first of all why you can’t take up more than half the bike path. Because there are people going the other way! And also people behind who would like to pass if there is a break in traffic. So no, you and your party cannot hog the whole path. But it should be common sense.

Why can you not play on a field without a permit? Because teenage boys will go and play on the field and not yield it to the permit holders! I have seen this while coaching soccer. We actually had to call the cops to get the miscreants off the field so we could play our chartered game. I’ve also had to kick other coaches off the field because their refs showed up late so they thought they would just use some of our time. That’s not how it works. You have to rent these facilities, just like a hockey rink, and when your time is up it’s up. Get off the field. I don’t see a problem if no one is after you but if there is someone else you get off the field. It’ better with hockey because the Zamboni guy just kicks you off. The Zamboni guy will kick you off even if you are last because he wants to go home.

So the problem is a lack of common sense.

I also don’t believe in legislating helmets, but I started wearing one on my bike and on skis because I wanted my kids to wear one. For skiing, it turned out to be way warmer than a toque and prevent sunburn as well so it was all plusses. But I agree it shouldn’t be regulated.

No why when it’s busy ski resorts have to hire an extra guy to say who goes next onto the lift? Because snowboarders don’t understand “ski courtesy” and will not alternate. It just raises the cost of lift tickets.

But I agree it’s a shame it requires legislation. People should get this stuff.

#78 T.O. Bubble Boy on 01.01.15 at 12:24 am

TFSA day is less than 1 hour away!

Where is your $5500 contribution going?

#79 45north on 01.01.15 at 12:26 am

if you think this will be contained to Alberta, you’re not paying attention.

it won’t be contained to Alberta but how much will it affect the rest of the country? sais-pas. It could be quite minor east of the prime meridian.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominion_Land_Survey#Meridians_and_baselines

happy new year!

#80 bb on 01.01.15 at 12:38 am

Happy New Year Garth,
Please give a call, quick synopsis;

married three years
I am a VP and she a teacher
200000 maybe a little more salary together
480,000 in total assets
waiting on twins expected june 2015
I am 47 she 34 (yes i am screwed!!!lol)
anyway I will need some for a home, no way around that may be able to buy another year, maybe not
please pass along a number i will call and you will play saviour, lol…
Happy new year

#81 Sam604 on 01.01.15 at 1:02 am

HNY Garth. You want pathetic? How about reading this blog from moms basement on new years eve? And Im single and 28 years old. At least the TFSA will get maxed out tomorro. High school friend of mine just bought a particleboard palace in east van for 1.4 mil. 7% down.
Who do you think the ladies will go for next year?

#82 waiting on the westcoast on 01.01.15 at 1:08 am

Garth – thanks for a great read in 2014! Happy New Year from the unusually sunny westcoast!

#26 Waterloo Resident re: tobogon fines

So sad and so typical…

#83 Retired Boomer - WI on 01.01.15 at 1:09 am

An interesting thing happened to me today. I checked the markets after their close via the Vanguard web site.

Since I use one of their advisers to manage most of my assets there, except a small under 10% of value that I self manage.

The web site suddenly showed that my goals were ‘off track’ whereas they had been on track for almost a year.

Checking further, I saw they calculated my tax liability at $218,000 for 2015. Well, that would be a great problem to have, assuming one had the total account value to support that. Since my withdrawals for 2014 were quite small I calculated that a 905% tax rate on what I had withdrawn was a bit extreme, and called. As yet, no answers except they had a ‘technical problem’ with the site.

No shit, ya think maybe a ‘technical problem’?? While I fully expect tax rates to go up somewhat over the next few years 905% seems a bit over the top even if we enacted a VAT tax. GRRR… technical my arse!

#84 torontorocks on 01.01.15 at 2:01 am

Garth, belated Christmas wishes and a Happy 2015. Thanks for putting it out there and telling it like it is

#85 Cptn.Obvious on 01.01.15 at 2:45 am

Happy New Year blog dogs! 2015 awaits and will be interesting. For now, grab a GROG and imbibe. My 100% accurate prediction for the new year is that the market will fluctuate.
But where are all the customers’ yachts?

#86 Cptn.Obvious on 01.01.15 at 2:48 am

@ #73

This is now a dental blog??
New meaning to drill baby drill.

#87 juno on 01.01.15 at 2:51 am

#11 Waterloo Resident on 12.31.14 at 7:13 pm

yeah like to see that happen.
Renter 15% tax, can you say underground economy.
Mandatory ownership. Yeah tell that to the herion addict. A fix or owning a home. Who’s going to loan them money.

At the end of the day you can’t tax the renters, too many games. The owner doesn’t want to pay tax and ditto to the renters soooo, they go underground, Oh, I’m related, Watering his plants while he’s out, Oh, just house keeping, a share house who pays? Sublet who pays? etc etc. What are they going to do hang the non owners…. or the poor to fund the rich.

If government wanted more money property tax is #1, because you can’t freakin pack up and move a house. So they will tug on your choke collar and will submit to your master (the government and the banks) .

Eg CMHC raising rates. What UR going to do… Pay of course you don’t have a choice.

#88 theAwakenedOne on 01.01.15 at 3:16 am

Another hour until 2015 on the West coast in BC. Call me crazy or pathetic reading this blog before mid night. So what?

First, Happy New Year everyone!

Second, Thank You Garth, for your words of wisdom: because of your posts, now I rightfully know myself as the Awakened One living in this financial and housing matrix.

You really have no idea how significant of an influence your posts have been and will be in guiding my financial compass, FOR FREE !!!!

No financial textbook ever told me. No advisor from my bank would truthfully tell me the truth about our current state of delusional existence and what Prof. Robert Shiller calls “a herd like mentality” when living in a bubble. Btw, he’s a Nobel laureate on economics who has present studies on real estate indexes & bubbles. This is his take on Vancouver housing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzhDGY8_VcU

I recommend his books: Irrational Exuberance and The Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology drives the Economy and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism.

I always knew there’s something wrong with the housing picture ever since I finished university, got a job, some savings and started thinking about housing and my financials… especially here in crazy Vancouver.

I just feel it from inside my guts… but never had the courage to unplug from the mass madness. In fact, I was sucked into buying a town house in Surrey at its peak by the “herd-like”urge as if it were my only one mating season left on earth before the price hits the clouds and I would live on the street for good, sobbing & feeling sorry for myself every night for failing to own real estate.

Well, guess what? I owned the town house for 6 months with delusional pride of ownership and suddenly one day I realized how quickly my moderate saving was sucked down the bottomless pit!! I Sold It and lost 7K; but that was the best decision I ever made. I am now renting a very modest bachelor pad for $550/month, and sleeping well at night with a balanced portfolio in stock, GICs and savings.

And waiting for the bubble to come down. I still have time in my mid-thirties.

I can coin a new term for “House Ownership”: it’s the Ownership of Debts. Truly. And if not done carefully & realistically, it will utterly destroy one’s financial egg nest.

I did all the above before stumbling across your truthful, humorous & cool blog a few months ago. A late Christmas present for knowledge & insight.

Because I am a learner and always have been searching for insights and truth telling in this messy and confusing matrix.

I’m glad we Canadians have you as their fellow citizen who speaks the candid truth about our own mess and offers some valuable insights.

And be careful Garth: truth tellers often attract ninja assassins sent by the central banks and real estate corps ! :O)

Live Long and Prosper in 2015!

#89 Tony on 01.01.15 at 3:24 am

DELETED

#90 jumpin jack lavender on 01.01.15 at 3:33 am

HNY y’all. Any thoughts on what happens to the oil price after Obama is out of office and finished juicing the economy for a democrat run in ’16? The cure for cheap oil is cheap oil….and really..we’re already there. If you read the latest production numbers out of Canada exports are screaming. So….don’t count your victims quite yet. Obama is a has been in 12 months…..and history in 26.

#91 Tony on 01.01.15 at 3:35 am

DELETED

#92 RealistvsExtremist on 01.01.15 at 6:21 am

#73 Bottoms_Up on 12.31.14 at 11:48 pm
and if you actually want a reliable source on fluoridation, as opposed to youtube posts:

http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/hl-vs/iyh-vsv/environ/fluor-eng.php
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Your calling a GOVT source reliable? Looks like you have been drinking too much Fluoride.

#93 RealistvsExtremist on 01.01.15 at 6:28 am

Fluoride

http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2013/04/30/water-fluoridation-facts.aspx

http://www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/factsheet/Risk/fluoridated-water

http://iaomt.org/harvard-study-confirms-fluoride-harms-brain-development/

Sorry but I think I will believe a “Harvard Study” before I believe a “Stephen Harper Govt Scientist who is TOLD” what to tell us on a GOVT website.

#94 RealistvsExtremist on 01.01.15 at 6:40 am

There has been a lot of debt created in US$ in the last decade that has to be paid back in US$.

Along with the chart I included some recent news item snippets, one of which is going to be very bad for Canadians… it’s the Afghanistan poppy harvest story, the biggest in recent history and in part thanks to the NATO/Euro forces that kept the growers protected and well irrigated. That crop will be flooding the markets of North America with cheap heroin.

In Vancouver we have opened a heroin clinic:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/11/25/prescription-heroin-vancouver-salome_n_6215188.html

“The addiction is so severe that no other treatment has been effective,” David Byres, Providence Health
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

And you Canadians actually thought we spent billions there building skooolz for gurlz. Dumb sheep…..Why don’t you go ask Stevie Harpers Defence and Pharmaceutical pals who REALLY made out like bandits in DRUGANDBOMBGhanistan…….

#95 RealistvsExtremist on 01.01.15 at 6:43 am

#31 Bby604 on 12.31.14 at 8:26 pm
Goldman Sachs top economist calling for a small raise in rates not till September, don’t worry guys the band will play on all through 2015, rates going nowhere fast
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

We’ve been hearing about “rising rates” going on 3 years now……raising rates 0.25% to 0.5% in September after many many years of nothing……is nothing. And I expect nothing to continue unless there really is a conspiracy to collapse the debt market.

Once the Fed starts to tighten it will not stop at a quarter point. — Garth

#96 Honey Dripper on 01.01.15 at 7:20 am

Happy New Year Garth and fellow blogaholics!

#97 Upnunder on 01.01.15 at 9:40 am

HNY Garth. I hope your ankle is much better, and ready for full deployment in 2015. A damaged L5 disk required 5 months horizontal time this year for me. Tick tock.

Stay with the program. Your altruism is amazing and quite rare in a world full fee skimming pocket pickers.

This blog provides an education in itself, and in amongst the troll noise, like raisins in the bread, are many helpful posts from other well-meaning, like-minded souls. The advice you provide is helping many of us steer clear of the dangers promoted by others.

The RESP and TFSA pieces are in place for tomorrow. We will be allocating 2015 TFSA contributions to the US dollar side of our accounts. Also using DLR as a passive play on USCAD as a strategy in RRSP. Otherwise have your 40/60 model two thirds built. Sold condo in Calgary this Oct. Yikes!

This pathetic blog is a keeper!

Thanks for standing up and believing in something. It takes courage.

#98 Obvious Truth on 01.01.15 at 11:08 am

First of the year and a chance to reflect and look forward.

Sensible suggestions by garth again on the financial side. Same portfolio that can work for anyone tweaked to take advantage of some likely macro trends.

Betting on canada,oil,housing and long duration seems unlikely at best. The risk seems anywhere from not worth it, to better risk/ reward options elsewhere, to dangerous to your financial health.

The housing story is moving from prices falling in smaller centres to the largest ones. It’s a longer cycle asset so it should play out over years. Oil is not much different. And hope is not investable. Manufacturing needs below 80 cents and there’s not much of it left. Banks will feel the pain and maybe be blamed. For all of this to change takes a lot of time. For now it’s all likely left for dead in an investment sense. Why bother. All sell offs will likely hit these sectors the hardest.

In the meantime it’s a big world full of opportunity. We are quite lucky as canadian investors. There is a great deal available with the click of a mouse or the tap of a touchscreen.

2015 will be like all others. It will be about what we individually make of our own opportunity. Knowing yourself and identifying opportunity is the tricky part.

#99 Jim Beem on 01.01.15 at 11:15 am

What is the world saying about the attack on petroleum prices?

http://time.com/3648604/saudi-us-dropping-oil-prices/

Reuters has also been running stories on US involvement and the back door deals behind the phony ‘supply-demand argument our media has swallowed hook line and sinker.

North American media has been pushing our simple minds to suck up the party line…but is what they are telling us true……ya right…since when. The truth is out there. Don’t bury Calgary real estate yet. Any drop might be a generational opportunity to buy if the demise of the oil industry has been over hyped.

#100 Porsche on 01.01.15 at 11:17 am

#80 bb

I am 47 she 34 (yes i am screwed!!!lol)

Yup… start hiding money because when she turns 40ish and the kids are 6 and 7 that dramatic change in a woman’s mentality starts. She’s thinking she’s still got it and wanting to try some different flavors of kool aid.

I’ve been down that road with a 9 year wage gap and wasn’t expecting it and all of a sudden BANG… the divorce papers.

Despite your winning personality? Hard to believe. — Garth

#101 Dan on 01.01.15 at 11:24 am

Gambling on natural gas has wiped even more people out over the past month (Look at that chart, yikes).

Long the Dow, CBD and GDXJ.

#102 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 01.01.15 at 11:29 am

Commies only drink vodka. I knew it was a commie plot all along. Thanks for the heads up Waterloo Resident.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qr2bSL5VQgM

#103 Alberta housing prices to fall like oil stocks on 01.01.15 at 11:41 am

Many in Alberta will lose it all and go bankrupt. Home owns trying to sell their home in an unsellible market. Look for a monster housing crash in Alberta. Alberta will suffer major financial pain.

#104 Alberta housing prices to fall like oil stocks on 01.01.15 at 11:43 am

Going going to $20 .Harpers Alberta better get used to poverty.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/new-rules-on-light-oil-exports-open-markets-for-u-s-producers-1.2887573#commentwrapper

#105 realtors in an all out panic on 01.01.15 at 11:53 am

Realtors in an all out panic on garths blog as home sales have stalled and set to crash as the Canadian economy take a huge hit on oil which helped Canada maintain and inflate the housing bubble. Now oil can’t help the housing / debt bubble. Look out below RE is going down. Just read the realtors on here with their uneducated posts.

#106 T.O. Bubble Boy on 01.01.15 at 12:07 pm

ok… $5500 more in the TFSA for 2015… balance now over $50k for the first time!

now, what to invest in tomorrow???

#107 Chris on 01.01.15 at 12:27 pm

I generally agree but have a few concerns. As far as the US, I don;t believe last months 5% was accurate – I’m betting the full year will be much more tame, more like 2.5-3 % growth – so good but not crazy. I think they will also lose a lot of employment due to oil. How many jobs in the past years have been created in Texas/North Dakota and wherever else they have been fracking like mad. Take those out of the equation and growth is just ok. Low oil prices tend to correct. Crazy us/Can dollar speads tend to correct. Canada may underperform slightly but I’m not about to jump ship unless I see a good reason to buy something US based. Garth’s example – Civeo -is perfect… a US company. This oil business will hit the states harder than many seem to think, it’s just that Canada is thought of as a Petro-dollar country. Good bargains will start to emerge on both sides of the border, I plan to take advantage of the best no matter which side. Take care.

#108 Cyclist on 01.01.15 at 12:32 pm

26 waterloo – yeah those bike helmets are terrible things…..

HNY everyone!

#109 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.01.15 at 12:41 pm

@#93 Reality vs Insanity
Everything you need to know about fluoride but were afraid to ask.

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=10&cad=rja&uact=8&sqi=2&ved=0CE4QtwIwCQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DN1KvgtEnABY&ei=R3ilVPiED4fuoAT1xoHwDQ&usg=AFQjCNHG43RGV9uKw1zTC3AU-36esXmqdg&bvm=bv.82001339,d.cGU

#110 joecalgaryee on 01.01.15 at 12:43 pm

Calgary is crazy. Increase in listings and lower sales mean nothing in regards to house prices. People in Calgary are more than happy to sit on their overpriced listings and just delist if they don’t sell. The difference is people in Calgary don’t NEED to sell. So yes, there might be a glut of listings but if sellers don’t need to sell or lower their prices they’ll just take those listings back off the market until someone decides to pay their price. How do you square this reality with predicting a drop in house prices? So far all I see is prices going UP UP UP UP. It’s insane. There is so much money in Calgary that people have no need to sell so even if there are no buyers left it does nothing to lower the prices. The only thing that will lower prices is a massive jump in interest rates or mass layoffs. So far layoffs are happening but hardly “mass”. Just a handful here and there to boost efficiencies. Everyone I know in this city still has a job. How do you explain that?

#111 not 1st on 01.01.15 at 1:18 pm

Garth, isn’t it time you made a new years appearance on the MSM?

You’ve been quiet lately and the ‘Brad Lambs’ of the world are happy to fill that gap and convert more even more hornies to the condo cult.

This is now the MSM. Get with it. — Garth

#112 Ontario's Left Coast on 01.01.15 at 1:19 pm

Just placed orders to max our 2015 TFSA and RESP contributions. Now, about that second cup of coffee…

#113 John W Foster on 01.01.15 at 1:21 pm

Happy TFSA Day everyone!

#114 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 01.01.15 at 1:26 pm

#110 joecalgaryee

You just keep moving forward with those rose coloured glasses on. Don’t forget to check the rear view mirror now and then though. This just not might end all that well.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/oil-prices-extend-slide-set-for-biggest-slump-since-2008/article22245982/

#115 ALBERTASTROPHE on 01.01.15 at 1:37 pm

Gas now selling for $.73 around Edmonton, down from $.89 a month ago. Nothing else to cheer for and the sense of dread is everywhere as the holidays are ending.

The leaders of the province have rarely gotten it right. Will a referendum to pass a new sales tax succeed? Probably not. This province is so screwed.

“It is deeply unfortunate that long-term, prudent revenue and expenditure management processes have not been a focus of the Alberta government over the past decade.”

And that’s what your friends are saying, Jim.

Ouch.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Opinion+Alberta+never+learns+fiscal+lesson/10688785/story.html

#116 Steve French on 01.01.15 at 1:45 pm

Smokey put me on to True Detective.

On episode 4…

can’t stop this binge.

#117 not 1st on 01.01.15 at 1:45 pm

I don’t understand why a TFSA is a better deal than a simple investment account. If you are buying for dividends, a regular investment account can yield $50k a year in tax free income right now.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/strategy-lab/dividend-investing/you-do-the-math-almost-50000-in-earned-dividends-0-in-tax/article4599950/

So why instead of waiting for the measly $5500 per year contribution room, it makes more sense to take a massive HELOC and invest it all, collect the income tax free and deduct the interest.

Do both, of course. — Garth

#118 I'm stupid on 01.01.15 at 2:02 pm

#106 T.O bubble Boy

Not bad 50k in Tfsa. I’m jealous,I have 47k now in my TFSA. I dream of the day it hits 1million.

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.01.15 at 2:15 pm

@#89 Tony

The 1st Blogdog deleted in 2015. You must be proud. Strive ever higher Antonio, reach for the stars…….

#120 Ray Skunk on 01.01.15 at 2:17 pm

#47 Derek R

However if they’re daft enough to let it pass, it’s not going to affect the renters long-term except possibly by cutting their overall tax bills.

Thanks for the funniest laugh of the year so far! (In fairness I just woke up).

You do realize we’re talking about Ontario, right?

A debt of $300bn, a defect of $18bn, where government scandals have a minimum price floor of $500m, an ever-increasing public payroll with eye-watering pension liabilities – and you’re thinking there will ever be a fiscal environment where there will be a reduction in overall taxes in Ontario?

Side-splitting stuff!

#121 Blacksheep on 01.01.15 at 2:20 pm

“Americans will save at least $75 billion on cheaper gas prices in 2015, says the American Automobile Association. That’s a huge number – all of it dropping into disposable income”- Garth
——————————————————
Yes, confirmation for my post: Cowboy hell, #151 Blacksheep on 12.23.14 at 2:44 pm

“Alberta is being sacrificed for the greater good.

Lets assume every single person in Fort Mac gets fired (60,000 people) and they all had average annual income of 125 K.

Total annual loss of income to consumers, – 7.5 billion $’s subtracted, from the economy.

Canada has 18 million vehicles. Lets assume each vehicle saves 40 bucks a month on fuel, X 12 months = $ 480 annually.

Total savings to consumers / businesses, + 8.6 billion $’s, added the economy.

Now this will definitely focus the pain on those in and related to the patch, but will over all, stimulate the general economy, just like Garth says it will for the US.

This scenario will play out in every country that has a high % of vehicles per capita, (the west). Yes, tax collection will hurt, but most are a sovereign in control, so just add it to the pile.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_McMurray
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capita

Oil prices are not being pushed down to hurt Russia, or so the Saudi’s can eliminate competition, those are just added benefits.

Oil continues to be over supplied, dropping it’s value, to stimulate the global economy and ward off a deflationary depression.”
—————————————————–
It’s not so bad…..unless your a Cowboy.

Happy new year to all.

#122 economictsunami on 01.01.15 at 2:57 pm

Some additional/ interesting background on Civeo.

Oil-Bust Contagion Hits Hedge Funds, Supplier Layoffs Begin:

“Civeo is one of the many peculiar creations of Wall Street’s financial engineering shops. When it was still a unit of Oil States International, David Einhorn’s hedge fund Greenlight Capital and Barry Rosenstein’s Jana Partners clamored vociferously for a spinoff, because spinoffs were the new hot thing to make a quick buck. So by early June, Civeo was spun off. It had over 4,000 employees and housed over 20,000 “guests,” as it said on its website. The price of oil was above $100 a barrel. It was the absolute peak of the junk-bond bubble, particularly the energy junk-bond and IPO bubble. Nothing could go wrong.

The shares surged from $22 to $28 by mid-June. Wall Street talked about a 50% upside. In August, when Einhorn let it be known that his hedge fund had acquired a stake, the stock jumped 11% afterhours. Now he was clamoring for the conversion of Civeo into a REIT. But the price of oil was already declining, and shares had backed off to the $25 range, when Civeo announced on September 29 that it would not convert to a REIT but instead move its headquarters to Canada. Over the next two days, its shares crashed 54% to $11.61.”

http://wolfstreet.com/2014/12/30/oil-bust-contagion-hits-hedge-funds-supplier-layoffs-begin/

As for the US economy, US equities badly need the Wall St. narrative to bear fruit in order to justify their rather lofty valuations.

The bond market, although initially fooled (around this time last year) presently appears to have a better interpretation of the US economy and where it’s likely
headed.

This from Laurence MacDonald @Convertbond :

“Bonds Say US Economy is in Slow Down. Spread between US 5 and 10 year bonds now just 49bps; 1.72% to 2.21%, was 142bps this time last year.”

All the best in the New Year…

#123 GregW, Oakville on 01.01.15 at 3:11 pm

Hi #71 Bottoms_Up, Because you asked. (sorry Garth)
Re: “So what exactly are the harms from low exposure…”, and you ask for some links.

Low exposure over time is chronic exposure in my book. “What is chronic exposure?
Exposure to a hazardous substance, continuously over an extended period of 7 to 70 years. Contrast to acute exposure.”
http://thelawdictionary.org/chronic-exposure/

Keep in mind the daily dose is not controlled. How much water do you drink, work outside much?
Concentration and dose are not the same.
Is your person health status taken into account? Like poor kidney function, low thyroid function? How about your mass?
Have you given ‘informed’ consent to be medicated with this? The HFSA being added to water is not an approved drug. (BTW I no longer consent. Not that I was ever asked or truly ‘informed’ in the first place.)
Is there accumulating science based evidence it is detrimental to human health? I have looked and there is much it turns out.

Here is a link to an MSDS for the stuff being added to my water. And we are still told by some that it is ‘safe and effective’. But simply saying it is, does not make it so.

http://candmz04.brenntag.ca/MSDS/En/00060388.pdf
See end of section 3 for admitted “chronic exposure” health effects.
“Severe fluorosis in children weakens tooth enamel resulting in surface pitting”,
(Your statement that the worst problem is potential ‘staining’ is not correct, as I read the MSDS.)
See section 12 Environmental Fate ,
“Can be dangerous if allowed to enter drinking water intakes. Do not contaminate domestic or irrigation water supplies, lakes, streams, ponds, or rivers.” (So does this make sense, its ok because it’s not added to the ‘intake pipe’, they inject it into the pipe leaving the water plant to your home?)

Your, “Health Canada has top notch scientists look into this issue”. Really have they, sure about that?
Here is the science from health Canada to show ‘safe and effective’ that is not just opinion. There is none it seems.
http://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Health-Canada-FOI-Response-Letter-June2014.pdf
The response at the bottom is telling:
“After a thorough search for the requested information, no records were located which respond to your request.”

Hydrofluorosilicic Acid’s Phosphate Mining & Production Origins, Plus The Co-Contaminants
(Contaminants that are include with ever truck load of the product added to my/your water, about two pound of lead, arsenic, mercury and radioactive materials…)
http://cof-cof.ca/hydrofluorosilicic-acid-origins/
(So when did it become ok to “add” stuff like lead to people drinking water, if you want them to stay healthy and smart?)

You asked for “(ps. I’m waiting for you to provide links to peer reviewed research).”
You might like to start looking here for peer review research and other reputable web sites information:

Free online:
Fluoride in Drinking Water:
A Scientific Review of EPA’s Standards (2006)
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11571/fluoride-in-drinking-water-a-scientific-review-of-epas-standards

This next book has 80 full pages of references to the science and the book title says much,
‘The Case Against Fluoride How Hazardous Waste Ended Up in Our Drinking Water and the Bad Science and Powerful Politics That Keep It There’ – See more at: http://www.chelseagreen.com/bookstore/item/the_case_against_fluoride/#sthash.NsAUynMW.dpuf

And these sites are full of good science based information:
http://cof-cof.ca/
http://fluoridealert.org/new-visitors/
http://www.fluoridegate.org/
http://www.waterloowatch.com/home.html
http://iaomt.org/

FYI, Brita filters do not remove it. And boiling water with it makes it more concentrated/worse.

If you still think it’s help your teeth, feel free to use tooth paste if you want. Remember to read the label that says ‘do not swallow’.

Anyway Bottoms_Up, I’m pretty sure our blog host would appreciate if I refrain from this topic as much as possible. So you didn’t need to respond to me. I just wanted to provide you some of the links you asked #11 Waterloo Resident for, in the belief you might look.
(Sorry again Garth.)

#124 Kenchie on 01.01.15 at 3:25 pm

Happy New Year, Garth and all.

Hope 2015 is prosperous for all those good people out there.

For all those doomers out there, make it a new year’s resolution to be more positive! Attitude makes a world of difference! Best of luck!

#125 Kenchie on 01.01.15 at 3:26 pm

It’s amazing that the US shale formations are becoming increasingly more productive per oil rig! Take a look at these charts…

https://ello.co/cardiffgarcia/post/Feg_TODkUvtBzZDAxOGVUQ

#126 kommykim on 01.01.15 at 3:28 pm

RE: #105 realtors in an all out panic on 01.01.15 at 11:53 am
Realtors in an all out panic on garths blog as home sales have stalled and set to crash as the Canadian economy take a huge hit on oil which helped Canada maintain and inflate the housing bubble. Now oil can’t help the housing / debt bubble. Look out below RE is going down. Just read the realtors on here with their uneducated posts.

You need to end these types of posts with the line, “It’s going to be a nasty crash realtors, a nasty crash!”

Traditions must be honoured. ;-)

#127 Derek R on 01.01.15 at 3:35 pm

#120 Ray Skunk on 01.01.15 at 2:17 pm wrote:
Thanks for the funniest laugh of the year so far! (In fairness I just woke up).

You’re welcome.

You do realize we’re talking about Ontario, right?

A debt of $300bn, a defect of $18bn, where government scandals have a minimum price floor of $500m, an ever-increasing public payroll with eye-watering pension liabilities – and you’re thinking there will ever be a fiscal environment where there will be a reduction in overall taxes in Ontario?

Side-splitting stuff!

Ah, well. I live in hope. But then I always was a bit of an optimist.

#128 Joe2.0 on 01.01.15 at 3:35 pm

Happy New Year Garth & Dogs.

#129 Kenchie on 01.01.15 at 4:05 pm

Interesting read here on the oil price changes over 2014. Check out some of the hyperlinks in the text.

“Why the oil crash caught so many people by surprise (but shouldn’t have)”

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/why-the-oil-crash-caught-so-many-by-surprise/

#130 Smoking Man on 01.01.15 at 4:19 pm

#116 Steve French on 01.01.15 at 1:45 pm
Smokey put me on to True Detective.

On episode 4…

can’t stop this binge.
………..

Awesome Charters, amazing writing by Nic Pizzolatto.

#131 Porsche on 01.01.15 at 4:19 pm

#118 I’m stupid

Not bad 50k in Tfsa. I’m jealous,I have 47k now in my TFSA. I dream of the day it hits 1million.

……………………………………………………………………….

LOL… You’ll be dead before you get 1 Million in a TFSA

#132 AlberTA IS GOING TO FEEL FINANCIAL PAIN on 01.01.15 at 4:36 pm

joecalgaryee #110

As most realtors with not even a high school education you lack financial understanding of the housing crash that is taking place in Alberta. People are not only LOSING their jobs but hours are getting cut left and right. Why do you think listings jumped 40+% and sales crashed? People are in an all out panic and on the verge of going bankrupt (remember majority of people are ONE PAY CHECK away from financial ruin) . It’s going to be fun watching realtors like you without a sale and on the verge of going bankrupt themselves. Financial pain is coming.

#133 Shawn Allen on 01.01.15 at 5:05 pm

Livin’ Tax Free on Dividends?

Not 1st at 117 said:

If you are buying for dividends, a regular investment account can yield $50k a year in tax free income right now.

******************************************
That is only true if you have no other income.

But even with other income the tax rate on eligible dividends is very favorable.

In Alberta it’s 9.6% with taxable income $45 to $89k and then jumps to about 25%.

In Ontario it’s not that much different except there are more steps between the 10% rate and the 25% rate.

http://www.taxtips.ca/marginaltaxrates.htm

It is good to be rich in this country since your income tax rate tends to decline, Rich retired people get very a good deal if they can arrange things properly.

No wonder those with big RRSPs complain about the tax bite – they are just not used to paying tax. And they conveniently forget that what they thought of as “their” RRSP was always only more like 60% theirs because the government contributed about 40% through tax breaks at the outset and simply wants is 40% share back.

It truly is the middle class that pays the shot in this country.

You’d “almost” think it was higher income people who made the rules.

#134 Dadeedum on 01.01.15 at 5:11 pm

#110 JoeCalgaryee

” The difference is people in Calgary don’t NEED to sell. ”

It’s always amusing to see the opinion of someone who is experiencing an Alberta bust for the first time.

Listen:
Almost all those 60K pickup trucks you see are leased.
Almost all those over sized houses have huge mortgages. It’s called living paycheck to paycheck.

People are seeing the 78 cents/L gas prices around Calgary and yet they don’t want to believe that low oil prices will affect them. Until it does. It’s the same every bust.

Do you think that any of the soon-to-be-fired oil patchers who have bought Calgary real estate over the last 10 years have actually paid off their mortgage?
I’m willing to bet no and I would bet that many of them have taken a credit line out as well.

If oil prices hold at this level for a few more months,
believe me, you will be seeing a lot of “new price” signs on houses, and houses for sale including the furnishings, the ski doos and cars.

And prepare for the return of the famous bumper sticker.
“Please God, let there be another oil boom. I promise not to piss it all away next time.”

#135 Doug in London on 01.01.15 at 5:34 pm

How appropriate the title of this posting is, not only Happy New Year, but HNY-T is at an all time Boxing Week blowoff dirt cheap price of $5.76 CDN. Could it get cheaper? I don’t know, but it’s still a better deal than buying still overpriced real estate in Cowtown, Fort Mac, HAMcouver, or Hogtown.

I actually didn’t read this post on New Years Eve, as I actually got out of the mouldy basement and went celebrating the event. There’s hope for some of us blog dogs here after all.

#136 Victor V on 01.01.15 at 5:40 pm

#106 T.O. Bubble Boy on 01.01.15 at 12:07 pm

ok… $5500 more in the TFSA for 2015… balance now over $50k for the first time!

=================================

Congrats. I expect to be joining the $50K club in January ;)

Current balance: $43,699 + $5,500 (today) = $49,199

#137 Panhead on 01.01.15 at 6:27 pm

#83 Retired Boomer – WI on 01.01.15 at 1:09 am
While I fully expect tax rates to go up somewhat over the next few years 905% seems a bit over the top even if we enacted a VAT tax. GRRR… technical my arse!

————————————————————
Better watch it there Boomer … y’all are starting to sound like a Canadian. All the best in the New Year.

#138 Mark on 01.01.15 at 6:28 pm

“Do you think that any of the soon-to-be-fired oil patchers who have bought Calgary real estate over the last 10 years have actually paid off their mortgage?”

The truth about Calgary is that very few people in the city actually work in oil and gas. But there’s a huge number who work in real estate, sales, etc., who will definitely be seeing the spin-offs of the slow-down in spending across the board take place. These people are far more vulnerable than the relative few who work in oil and gas and presumably earned good money and should have been able to make some pretty good payments against the mortgage over the past decade.

There’s so many amateur landlords, etc., running around Calgary that it ain’t even funny.

Everyone I know in this city still has a job. How do you explain that?

You must have such a limited circle of acquaintances to be making such a claim. And a ‘job’ isn’t just a job. Remove the perks, bonuses, and the overtime, and many “jobs” can easily lose half their overall compensation without even so much as the boss issuing a pink slip.

#139 JoeCalgaryee on 01.01.15 at 6:30 pm

#110. This time it’s different. Why? Housing makes up such a huge % of the Canadian economy and the stability of the banking sector that it has become “too big to fail”. Alberta is non-recourse. People can and will just walk away from their homes if they have to. Will that mean the banks will dump them on the market and we’ll have cheap house prices? AHAHAHA. Have you seen foreclosure listings in Calgary? They’re higher priced than normal listings LOL. Banks don’t have to sell. The government and BOC will keep the banks flush with cheap money and let them sit on inventory and foreclosures for the next 100 years if they have to. I don’t think some of you know the current world you’re living in. This isn’t 1980 with %20 interest rates and an economic foundation that is completely unrecognizable in 2015. There is no such thing as market forces anymore. Central banks make the rules and do what they want. Next time you start to factor in house prices or the stock market, look further than the nose in front if your face. These things can and will never go down again. This is a conclusion based on the fact that central banks and governments will not allow this. I don’t know how naïve some of you can be. Prediction for 2015. Stock market to new highs, house prices to new highs. Want to bet? That will also be my prediction for 2016. Oh and interest rates? I will be you anything they will never go up again in modern history unless the entire system collapses.

#140 DMD on 01.01.15 at 6:31 pm

#136 Victor V
Mine is slightly better thanks to Garth’s advice in the past: 54629 + 5500= 60129

#141 Meanwhile in the GTA on 01.01.15 at 6:40 pm

#126 kommykim on 01.01.15 at 3:28 pm
Too Funny!!

ah, memories

#142 Washed Up Lawyer on 01.01.15 at 6:55 pm

139 Joe Calgaryee

CMHC and National Housing Act mortgages are recourse. Deficiency judgments are obtained upon foreclosure. Example – foreclosed house sells for $250K – mortgage debt $350K – result is a judgment against the mortgagor of $100K. Go to the courthouse next week and watch a few foreclosure applications in Masters Chambers.

So, if you put 5% down a couple of years ago, go ahead and walk while leaving the keys on the counter. Then check Dun & Bradstreet a few months later. Ooops.

My learned friend, Hon. Garth, has pointed this out many times.

WUL

#143 OttawaMike on 01.01.15 at 7:17 pm

Hey everybody, Greg the Fluoride Guy is Back.

It has been a while. Keep up the good fight, man.

Stop the Illuminati from dosing us with those mind controlling neurotoxin, especially since we have now solved all of Canada’s other problems.

#144 economictsunami on 01.01.15 at 7:26 pm

Meanwhile, across the pond…

Third of listed UK oil and gas drillers face bankruptcy:

“Our fear is sustained low oil and gas prices will put an intolerable financial burden on the weaker companies, jeopardizing many livelihoods.”

The findings of the Company Watch research are the latest downbeat analysis to hit the industry, which is preparing itself for oil prices to fall below current levels of $60 per barrel. Sir Ian Wood, founder of the oil and gas services giant Wood Group, warned earlier this month that the North Sea oil industry could lose 15,000 jobs in Scotland alone and that production could fall by 10pc as drillers cutback.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/11315956/Third-of-listed-UK-oil-and-gas-drillers-face-bankruptcy.html

When you pump gargantuan amounts of liquidity into the system and politicians decry: “Drill baby drill!” you tend to get huge distortions in the economy.

A windfall for consumers, unfortunately for workers in the sector, not so much…

#145 CalgaryBoy on 01.01.15 at 7:46 pm

Happy New Year, Garth!

Sounds like there’s a lot of denial about Alberta going down. Maybe sounds more like fear is setting in. Only time will tell. Most are predicting oil will stay where it’s at for at least a year. May reach a bottom of $20, $30, or $40 first though. Housing will come down in all of Alberta. Even before oil was sliding, housing was slowing down in Calgary with listings staying on MLS longer with price drops. Now, with more listings, it means more competition. That means people will be lowering prices. If people lose jobs, they will have to give up on their house. Domino effect. The tables have turned. That’s the future.

So many people who invested in oil stocks have lost hundred of thousands of dollars. I’ve heard. Plus, there’s huge risk of oil companies going under, bankrupt. If they do, people will lose all their money from the stocks they bought from them. So, stay away from buying oil stocks.

#146 juno on 01.01.15 at 8:05 pm

Survey: Alberta market is cooling off, but how will it sound like

1) An outhouse: when you take a dump it make very little noise

2) A Moen Toilet: Flushes but leave little traces of what you ate last night

3) A american standard toilet: A real man’s toilet, flushes with authority

4) A Airplane toilet: Flushes like a black hole, creating a vacuum vortex as it devours

#147 Paul on 01.01.15 at 8:11 pm

#142 Washed Up Lawyer on 01.01.15 at 6:55 pm

139 Joe Calgaryee

CMHC and National Housing Act mortgages are recourse. Deficiency judgments are obtained upon foreclosure. Example – foreclosed house sells for $250K – mortgage debt $350K – result is a judgment against the mortgagor of $100K. Go to the courthouse next week and watch a few foreclosure applications in Masters Chambers.

So, if you put 5% down a couple of years ago, go ahead and walk while leaving the keys on the counter. Then check Dun & Bradstreet a few months later. Ooops.

My learned friend, Hon. Garth, has pointed this out many times.
=====================================
If they can’t make the payments and walk means they are broke, It’s a one way ticket to bankruptcy = No recourse seen that every time.

#148 Aberta is going Bankrupt on 01.01.15 at 8:19 pm

JoeCalgaryee #139

LOL you must be in a world of financial panic! You are either in major financial trouble or a delusional realtor who doesn’t even have a high school education. You have no understanding of economics or reality. I LOL reading your post. Thanks for the laughs. TIMBERRRrrrrrrr Alberta is going down.

#149 Andrew Woburn on 01.01.15 at 8:29 pm

The Telegraph says that $100 oil was not “normal” and there is little likelihood of a quick return to these price levels

“Even $20 oil will struggle to save self–harming eurozone
Falling oil prices are unlikely to make much of a difference to a continent economically marooned by bad policy and an increasingly fractious political environment.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/11318935/Even-20-oil-will-struggle-to-save-self-harming-eurozone.html

#150 nonplused on 01.01.15 at 8:34 pm

Well I’m bored, the family is playing Rock Band, so I thought I would do some speculation on oil prices even though this post is cold and no one’s probably going to read it.

I read just about every article that comes out about oil prices and even worked in a research company for a while. But no man is an island so obviously I am borrowing heavily from others.

There is a general belief that lower oil prices are good for the economy. This can be true but only in the circumstance where the actual cost of production fell. So when the great fields of Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the Middle East were brought to market, it was very good for the economy because suddenly great supplies of energy were available at a very low cost of production. In other words the net energy available to the economy went up dramatically, we only need to burn say 1 barrel of oil to get 100 out of the ground we could use for other things.

Same thing could be said about when Texas came on line in the early 1900’s. Or Alberta in the 40’s. The oil practically shot out of the earth if you poked a hole in the right place.

So that is how cheaper oil is good for the economy, when the production costs are dropping.

Production costs are not dropping today, even with the so-called glut. On the margin, they are rising. Shale oil and tar sands need oil around $80 a barrel ore higher to make sense. The reason is because it takes so many more inputs, those being steel, labor, cement, steam generated by gas, horsepower for fracking that uses a lot of diesel and also steel and high technology and more labor, sand and water in great quantities transported over great distances using even more diesel, super big (and expensive) rigs and more labor labour and steal and diesel there too, and on and on.

This is why it’s important to calculate the Net Energy Return On Energy Invested (NEROEI). All those miles of pipe they are sinking down into the shale represent a bunch of coal and oil being burned to make the steel and run the drilling rigs and fracking spreads. The concrete demands are huge, but you can’t make concrete without energy. The water and the sand all represent spent energy. Then there is all the labor.

So what we have happening is this, and I’m jumping ahead a bit, but perhaps I will backfill it later. The marginal cost of oil has become higher than it’s economic value to the economy. Therefore people are choosing to walk or just not go anywhere as much rather than pay for gas. They simply cannot afford to keep driving their kids to soccer or whatever when gas is $1.40 a litre. They could buy a more efficient car, but that’s a whole lot more energy invested in the car itself, being made out of steel.

So what has happened in my opinion is that the economy has discovered that the returns on shale oil are to low from a physical perspective to be worth all the effort. The global economy must therefore downsize until shale oil is not required. Alternatively maybe other cheaper sources of energy need to be deployed, if there are any.

A simple way to think about it is this: If I have to walk 4 miles to be able to drive a 5th mile, why wouldn’t I just walk the whole way and avoid the cost of owning a car? This is the conundrum the global economy is in as a collective.

One must always keep in mind that economics is physical. Natural resources + labor = capital and consumption. No paper playing can change this equation, only facilitate it. In the case of shale oil, the resources just don’t justify the energy inputs if the result is to be used as a fuel. Perhaps for plastic, like mining gold takes energy (or copper or aluminum or steel or concrete) but it’s the metal we are after not energy.

Every energy source goes through this phase. Once they ran the trains and paddle-wheelers that built this great land on wood. Now wood is so expensive you’d hardly ever think about burning a good tree, just junk wood. Heck they turn the sawdust created from cutting wood into particle board. But that takes plastics (more oil) so I don’t know how long we’ll be doing that. (And yes I know there are some survivalists who live in forested areas and prefer to cut wood for fuel and remain off grid. But if they’d get a job they would find they can pay for gas heat in less time. At least for now.)

So the long and the short of it is, we are passed “Hubert’s peak” for cheap oil (probably occurred in 2006). Demand must now drop as a result because the expensive oil we have been drilling just isn’t worth it. This price drop indicates a great recession is upon us until we implement alternate, cheaper sources of energy or retool the global economy to be much more energy efficient.

There is a phrase attributed to a Saudi Sheik that goes “the stone age didn’t end because we ran out of rocks”. I hope he’s right, but it won’t be because oil is unlimited. It will be because we find something else, perhaps renewables, perhaps thorium, perhaps we just go all in on uranium (hopefully not it’s nasty), perhaps fusion. I believe we have arrived at that crossroad. We must choose how we are going to power things without oil or the global economy will collapse.

Incidentally, this is why the Ukraine is now in the news. But it’s short sighted. Russia freely sells it’s energy so gaining control of those assets will only change who makes the profit, not the energy available. Same as how lower oil prices only changes who gets how many dollars, not the amount of oil available. And prices are now so low that oil production will begin to fall. That’s the same as having a bad crop for a farmer.

#151 GregW, Oakville on 01.01.15 at 9:46 pm

Hi #143 OttawaMike,
I never left. I always try to read Garth Blog daily.
And hopefully It was just a temporary laps fueled by some new years bubbly last evening and #71 asking for links this morning. I assumed his request was sincere.

#152 Grantmi on 01.03.15 at 9:35 pm

#122 Karlhungus on 01.02.15 at 4:25 pm

question for anyone, is there any concern about currency conversion when owning lets say a US index ETF as a Canadian?

Nope! Not if you bought them a year ago in your TSFA!!

#WINNING!!!