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Just two more sleeps until 2015. Amazing. Twenty years ago I sat at my shiny new Macintosh and wrote a book called “2015” which sold so many copies my publisher genuflected every time I saw her. Seriously embarrassing.

Anyway, the book peered into a future when the Boomers would start turning into diseased wrinklies by the boatload, and made some predictions. Financial assets will do well by then, I said, and begin a long up-trend, while commodities and residential real estate will begin an equally powerful decline.

Of course, nobody understood two decades ago about what would come – the dot-com bubble, the collapse in interest rates, the financial crisis of 2008, the US housing crash or the eruption of house-horniness in Canada. But I did know that 32% of the population would end up approaching the age when you need thirsty underwear more than a four-bedroom particle board McMansion in Mississauga.

So here we are. And I’m sticking with the plan.

You might be interested in these overall returns for 2014 – major stock markets, a couple of commodities, and real estate in the country’s biggest and most vibrant housing market. These numbers come after a year in which we saw oil prices destroyed, mortgage rates hit historic lows, inflation morph into deflation, the Parliament Buildings shot up, stock markets tumble twice and the Pope said dogs go to heaven. I knew that.

Toronto stocks (TSX S&P)
+ 10.78%
Dow Jones Industrial Index
+ 11.37%
S&P 500 (broad measure US stocks)
+ 15.4%
Gold
(-2.5%)
Oil
(-40.9%)
Toronto real estate
+ 7.4%

My expectation is that this general trend will continue, with the exception of house prices. As I’ve told you too many times, demographics are negative for real estate, and the positives – cheapo rates, pent-up demand and easy debt – will diminish. Mortgages will not go any lower than they are now, and in fact will cost more in a year. A whack of house-rich, asset-poor and pension-starved Boomers will have little choice but to be trading in house equity for income over the next decade. Too bad they own all the wrong kinds of properties. Oh well.

Meanwhile the global recovery will accelerate, sparked by the US economic renaissance and greased with half-price energy. Corporate profits have been robust, and as Europe, then China, revive thanks to bargain oil and increased US import demand, markets should continue to do well. Besides, billions of new dollars will find their way into financial stuff as the big generation of half-dead hippies like me get wealth out of under-performing real assets and into things that pay them.

This coming year, seems to me, could be a watershed one. For the first time in six years, the cost of money will rise. For the first time ever, the Dow could pass the 20,000 mark (I think I suggested that in 1995). This year China will likely become the biggest economy ever. By mid-2015, house prices in all Canadian cities will be lower than a year before – for the first time. Ontario, for the first time in years, will again be subsidizing Alberta. And, of course, we’ll have a federal election, complete with a $10,000 TFSA limit next January.

So bonds yields will go up, as will equities. In advance of that, fixed-income assets like preferreds and some REITs will get cheaper. Yummy. The first mortgage rate increase will ignite a flurry of buying as the moist virgins panic – ensuring they buy at the top with the greatest possible amount of debt. Smart. Following that, a broad and lengthy pall will fall over the housing market. Oil, ever volatile, will probably stay cheap. Gold is finished. And, for a while, the dollar’s toast.

By the way, you should have known me in 1995. I was so cocky and sure of myself. Hard to imagine now.

173 comments ↓

#1 Albert on 12.29.14 at 8:36 pm

FIRST

#2 Dee on 12.29.14 at 8:40 pm

Hi Garth,

This doesn’t contradict anything you say in the post, but it’s something I’ve been wondering. Given the aging population, the real estate decline, and all that in Canada–at the same time as the rest of the world is chugging along–what impact do you think that’ll have on society and, with it, the (Canadian) markets? (I realize we’re a tiny fish in the global pond.)

For example, I can’t see us ever being a society that just lets the millions of retirement-poor Boomers starve. So do we jack taxes up to the moon on those still working to pay for it? Does Medicare fail (or get cut back to the point of basically not existing) under the weight of them? Do they stay working, continuing the trend where jobs just aren’t going to the young, and thus youth unemployment stays scary high? At some point, does that entire young (20-35ish) generation just move south or overseas to find work?

I love it here–I chose to move here 8 years ago, and became a citizen in the interim. I can’t imagine living anywhere else. But the near future in this country seems awful dark and stormy. Would love your thoughts.

#3 Sub $40 oil on 12.29.14 at 8:42 pm

Lots of pro traders saying there are major bets being placed in the last few weeks for $40 oil or less… Good bye Alberta

#4 Gary in Kelowna on 12.29.14 at 8:43 pm

Garth, I bought your 2015 book in 1995 and have been a devoted disciple ever since. Followed “The Strategy” once our house was paid off coincidentally in 1995. It has worked wonderfully. Thank you for all your information and help. All the best for 2015. Keep up the good work.

#5 Smoking Man on 12.29.14 at 8:44 pm

Genuflected
HA!!!!

Come on, you looked that one up.. :)

No way you rememberd that from collage.

#6 MGTOW on 12.29.14 at 8:46 pm

Garth, I have a question for you:
You said that you predicted that the Boomers would start turning into diseased wrinklies by the boatload, yet at the same time you predict that Financial assets will do well by then, and begin a long up-trend.

Normally when an old person’s health is failing, their income drops because they are not able to work in a career like they did before. So many Boomers (most) are still working their butts off because they have so much debt.
If they got sick and couldn’t work yet they needed to keep paying off their monthly debt payments, don’t you feel that maybe they might start dipping into their savings, and when that is gone they might start selling off their stock / bond investments next, so they could pay their bills and still keep in their house that they have become ‘accustomed’ to?

I know that Corporations are doing really well, and I just wonder; will the stock-rise trend due to rising corporate profits be able to overcome the stock-fall drend due to Boomers selling off their stock holdings?

(personally I do feel that stocks will continue to rise, I’m just not sure WHY I feel this way.)

What’s YOUR opinion on this conundrum?

#7 espressobob on 12.29.14 at 8:47 pm

Thanks Garth, again for your thoughts. Can’t help but think of Irvin Lerous and his battle with the CRA. Hope you have this matter in your queue.

http://theccf.ca/court-cases/irvin-leroux-v-cra/

#8 Nomad on 12.29.14 at 8:47 pm

“Houston-based Civeo Corp. announced Monday that it had reduced its Canadian workforce by 30% as a result of plummeting oil prices”

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/12/29/oilsands-camp-provider-cuts-third-of-its-staff-signalling-slowdown-in-alberta/?__lsa=cfc3-d7eb

Layoffs will accelerate, because it doesn’t look as bad to layoff your workers when others are doing it.

#9 Yes Really on 12.29.14 at 8:47 pm

I did not realize that you wrote this book. Found it on amazon. So used to hearing about people writing books that don’t exist.

http://www.amazon.ca/s/ref=nb_sb_noss_1/184-7837209-7508236?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=garth%20turner&sprefix=garth+t%2Caps

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.29.14 at 8:48 pm

“thirsty underwear”

OH the visual!

#11 T.O. Bubble Boy on 12.29.14 at 8:48 pm

So, if Bonds, Preferreds, and REITs are due for a hit… better to sit in cash for a bit and wait to buy?

#12 400 Days on 12.29.14 at 8:52 pm

Here we are about to corner (careen?) into a new year with unprecedented unknowns in the financial and political world.

As Garth suggests, 2015 should see the last gasp, the final horny idiots climbing aboard the real estate train- wreck-to-be, feeling very self-satisfied to have made it on board. Pity them, and stay far away so you won’t even think of doing the same.

World events may conspire to put mere economics on hold, with Russia in a vice and parts of Europe still teetering on the brink of major unrest.

But even without major global happenings, most of Canada’s real estate, and much of tis general economy, will be profoundly stagnating in 2015, and Alberta may surprise us with just how ugly it can get.

Federal and Alberta surpluses will be toast. (This may have an impact on whether Justin’s soon to be elected Liberals will keep the TFSA increase promise Garth suggests. But they have nicer hair than the Harpocrites)

By 2016, 400 days from now, the spring real estate market will be more like the 2004-2005 NHL season.

(And that was the Maple Laff’s last best chance.)

I’ll be back to count down in 2015.

Happy new year’s eve, everyone.

The new year? Not so much. I’m a realist.

#13 mishuko on 12.29.14 at 8:52 pm

I think house prices will have a dead cat bounce prior to a drop. Or maybe we were experiencing that in the summer… who knows.

I’m a bit skeptical on China still though… Same with Europe. I think they will still feel a bit of pain for next year and then take off in another year or 2… slowly. Purely because of political interests.

#14 Jimmy on 12.29.14 at 8:55 pm

Finally!
Don’t worry us like that.

#15 Dean on 12.29.14 at 8:56 pm

Already knew Garth was a genius and could tell the future but the biggest education I just recieved was learning the meaning of genuflected.

#16 Tedfiftyfour on 12.29.14 at 8:57 pm

I bought that book 20 years ago and didn’t pay enough heed to your pridictions, others done the pig and the Python and again I failed to take action. I have to the best of my ability learned all I can in the past five years to implement most of the tips and advice given here.

I’ve spent 30 years in the Real Estate business and thought I was safe. Until I started to practise diversification I didn’t know what a good nights sleep was. So thank you for the free advice, without it I would be running scared and likely end up as I did in 1991 when I was wiped out and left with $300 and a UHaul trailer to move to a new City. Thanks to you at 60 I feel ready

#17 Luc on 12.29.14 at 8:59 pm

Best line ever… “The pope says dog go to heaven and you knew that.” Now will women join the priesthood? Happy New year and thank you for all the blogs.

#18 Robert Agnew on 12.29.14 at 9:01 pm

Well the reform-a-cons are pandering to reactionary boomers. Man what happened to drugs, free sex, rock, the stones , nature, freedom for the oppressed, and free sex? The wrinkles are spoiling all the fun.

#19 Smoking Man on 12.29.14 at 9:02 pm

One more night in this hell hole which kind of grew on me. Yesterday it rained all day, pumped out ten thousand words of brilliant yet technically flawed Fiction.

If I lived here I could easily write 5 books a year with absolutely nothing to distract me. But probably would only complete 2 before I killed myself.

Atlantic City tomorrow dogs..

Call me Smoking Jesus, I will be resurrected so as I get out of here.

#20 Lillooet, BC on 12.29.14 at 9:02 pm

My predictions for 2015:

1. Oil prices will rise back above $90 early in the year due to falling production, increasing demand worldwide and the oil-producing countries including Saudi Arabia agreeing on quotas. There will also be several terrorist events, uprisings and wars which will drive up the price of oil.
2. Real estate prices in Toronto and Vancouver will continue to increase due to the 300,000 immigrants flooding into those cities each year, foreign investors snapping up condos and house-horny millennials wanting to move out of rentals and into their own homes. Also, interest rates will stay relatively low, inflating house prices in the big cities. The cost of houses in small towns and rural areas will continue to remain flat.
3. The stock market will see a wild ride. Both TSX and S+P will see huge gains followed by sudden drops, followed by steady gains, followed by sudden drops. Then a major crash, then a steady bull market.
4. Gold and silver will continue to flounder, rising 5% then a month later falling 5%, then a month later rising 5%, then falling again. Repeat.

#21 Setting the record straight on 12.29.14 at 9:03 pm

Yesterday the following comment was made

#254 gtrz4peace on 12.29.14 at 6:56 pm
Here is where renting can be a problem – if you want to “age in place” and in peace, because you like where you are, and don’t want to worry about being forced out when your house is sold or your condo building gentrified to make room for hipster tech employees half your age…

http://www.bcnpha.ca/media/Conference_2013/Presentations/M10_BP_Economic_displacement_of_Seniors__FINAL_Nov_18_11am.pdf

As far as we can see, there need to be protections in place for renters, and more affordable housing in some of the most in-demand urban markets, and then renting for all makes sense for all.

*******
So the poster and the authors of the study linked above want Seniors (all renters?) to enjoy a property right in their suites.

Mr Turner and others point out that owners metaphorically subsidize renters. The poster wants to remove the metaphorical quality ( the owner is receiving a market based rent so a loss is not the same as a subsidy) and demand explicit subsidies enforced by the power of the state.

No protection should be given to renters beyond that implied by their rental contract.

Rent controls that allow ?Seniors to occupy high value real estate reduce the supply of rental accommodation to other groups and increase their rental costs beyond what they would otherwise be.

Supply will also be reduced because investors will realize their property can be effectively expropriated.

#22 mortgagebrokeron on 12.29.14 at 9:03 pm

hey Garth, thanks for writing your blog, it’s the most interesting thing I get to read all day… “It’s soo pathetic”….

#23 Spectacle on 12.29.14 at 9:07 pm

Many thanks Mr Turner,

Anyone have some fave Canadian REITs , and ETFs , but with an emphasis on the U.S. ? For the 1) dollar difference, and 2) the U.S. Economic growth upside ?

Any heuristics to use when defining why a REIT or ETF goes lower in cost, yet continues to pay well?

Regards

#24 Rick on 12.29.14 at 9:07 pm

We are in the greatest debt bubble in history. Gold is done??? Why oh why are Russia and China buying it by the hundreds of tons??? China will announce that they have 20,0000 tons of gold are backing their currency with it and Russia’s oil. Bond bubble stock market explode. Bail-ins – in which they confiscate your TFSA.
Bye bye.

#25 k on 12.29.14 at 9:07 pm

Your blog is great. Your writing talent and devilish wit provide many wry smiles. I think most people believe you own a Hummer. Then again …maybe you do. Happy New Year !

#26 will on 12.29.14 at 9:08 pm

Garth I hope you are right about $10,000 TFSA but how are you so certain?

#27 slo mo on 12.29.14 at 9:08 pm

How about giving us those returns since you wrote your book 20 years ago? Quite a different picture I’m sure.

#28 nonplused on 12.29.14 at 9:11 pm

Ha ha ha Garth I was way more cocky and sure of myself in 1995 too. I wish I could go back to those days. I didn’t know about a lot of things, including the depravity of the human soul, so I just went about my business and didn’t worry. Oh if I could do that today.

The early 2000’s were a good time too. Divorced and nothing left to loose it was ski and party time. I worked hard Monday to Friday but “Saturday is a soccer day!” You probably haven’t heard that chant.

Now I am an old man with old man worries. “Oh what’s become of me?”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kzb9IZcPrQE

The Pope finally admitted that dogs go to heaven, thank goodness some sense reigns we all know they are the only ones who should. My dog protects the cats from coyotes when they are on mouse patrol. A truly heavenly creature, although now and again he can’t hold it all day and poops in the house. Bad dog.

But the Pope also said that the catholic church now accepts that evolution obviously happened and the earth is very very old, although he still sees God’s hand in guiding the process. How are the faithful going to handle that? Especially the 6 day folks?

And what about my cats? Shouldn’t they go to heaven? I will admit they torture those poor mice before they dispatch them but they do a very good job keeping them out of the house. And every now and then they bring them to the door and offer them as a “gift”. “Thanks for all the food I brought you a tasty treat”.

#29 Holly on 12.29.14 at 9:15 pm

Yes- It is right there in black and white on pages 144 and 145 of Canada’s- “Economic Action Plan 2013″
Your assets are not considered your assets when they are in Canadian banks. MF Global was a test run for the confiscation when they collapse the derivatives market.

#30 JSS on 12.29.14 at 9:16 pm

“For the first time ever, the Dow could pass the 20,000 mark”

Garth –
What are your predictions for the TSX next year?

#31 Food For Thought on 12.29.14 at 9:17 pm

“As I’ve told you too many times, demographics are negative for real estate, and the positives – cheapo rates, pent-up demand and easy debt – will diminish. Mortgages will not go any lower than they are now, and in fact will cost more in a year. A whack of house-rich, asset-poor and pension-starved Boomers will have little choice but to be trading in house equity for income over the next decade. Too bad they own all the wrong kinds of properties. Oh well.”

I came to the conclusion in 2012 (through my own mosaic theory) that the best time to buy houses in Vancouver (my hometown and the only town I care about) will likely be in 2018 or 2019. The reason is, IMO, that the first wave of baby boomers will have had several years of retirement and will be adjusting to this new lifestyle. Some will be fine (i.e. no downsizing), some won’t adjust as comfortably and be forced to sell or do a reverse mortgage.

Meanwhile, the second wave of boomers, with a couple more years to go before retirement, will learn from the first wave and they will likely want to sell before they are forced to. This will likely turn housing into a buyers market for a prolonged period as supply of homes outweigh demand.

By 2020, the first wave of millennials will already have bought their matrimonial homes (with serious amounts of debt) and the second wave of millennials will likely be the best off in this new era.

#32 Holly on 12.29.14 at 9:18 pm

How could you not know these things? ? Really?

#33 Smoking Man on 12.29.14 at 9:19 pm

Dogs caution, I’ve chirped Wynee two times on Twitter , once on energy policy and once on education. Well it dident take long for my email to fill up with hate male.

Apparently I’m homofobic. The femanazis came after me hard.

One sent a two thousand word scathing attack, serious threats she is pissed.

Perhaps it’s my pic on Twitter, Indian Jones hate, smoking, goti, pure testosterone. It’s only a pic. I’m a wimp at heart.

My reply, “I have nothing against Lesbions. In fact it’s been a life long fantasy to be the baloney in that sandwich…”

Well I’m going to need a new email.. Being bombarded…

Wow, the power and organizations of the Young and Wellesley crowrd.

I’m afraid..Really am..

#34 Kenchie on 12.29.14 at 9:19 pm

“Things everyone should know about investing and the economy”

http://www.businessinsider.com/things-everyone-should-know-about-investing-and-the-economy-2014-12

#35 Duane Storey on 12.29.14 at 9:19 pm

How are you computing the gold price decline? I can’t find data to support that anywhere.

In USD gold was down about 2% from Dec 31, 2013; in CAD it’s actually up 7%.

Happy to be corrected, but I checked three different websites and they all show the same.

#36 Joe2.0 on 12.29.14 at 9:20 pm

Immigration will fuel the nation.
People from China full of elation.

From Iran to Vancouver is just like a vacation.
Just attend a RE Max presentation.

Who cares if it rains at least it’s not bombs.
Just buy an umbrella and sing a sweet song.

Thankyou Canada for your acceptance of us.
Please take our tax dollars and don’t make a fuss.

Too bad for the locals who can’t buy a house.
Because you’ve been priced out without a doubt.

But don’t feel bad we’ll rent you a place.
Any colour creed or race.

#37 Happy Renting on 12.29.14 at 9:22 pm

Neat to look back at 1995 predictions (seems like a whole other world back then. The internet hadn’t pervaded every aspect of life, yet, and Canada Savings Bonds paid 5.25%. Wowee.)

Thanks for the yearly recap and predictions for 2015.

#38 everythingisterrible on 12.29.14 at 9:23 pm

I am waiting for this correction in vancouver like a salivating wolf who’s spotted an injured moose.

#39 saskatoon on 12.29.14 at 9:27 pm

thank-you again for the tfsa, garth.

a little bit of freedom, in our socialist paradise.

#40 Jean-Claude VanDammeCouver on 12.29.14 at 9:33 pm

I’m loving the optimism!

#41 NotAGreaterFool on 12.29.14 at 9:37 pm

Garth – Are you sticking to the prediction of a slow thaw of 10-15% on average in Canada for real estate? Any deviations at all (i.e. $50 oil probable)? General elections in Greece next month? This last point is interesting as one could argue the original Greece crisis marked the start of the low rate environment.

Happy 2015.

#42 Randy on 12.29.14 at 9:38 pm

We were all more cocky with all that testosterone back then.

#43 Freedom First on 12.29.14 at 9:42 pm

Yes, the Boomers, they have contributed to market bubbles and thus market crashes over their whole lives. And they are not done yet. Having lived in 4 different Provinces in my life, and currently in Alberta, I can tell you that many of the Boomers who own houses I have talked with during the RE run-up in Alberta, have no work pensions and many have little money besides their house equity. That being said, they have been scared to cash out of their homes as many are brainwashed to the extreme and really believe that house prices will continue to rise to the lofty prices in Toronto and Vancouver, and they don’t want to miss the $$$$$ gains. Now, however, the mood in Alberta has turned quietly solemn with Oil crashing, the layoffs now happening, and the Premiere saying in the media that all Albertans will be sharing in the suffering to come. In my opinion, without being liquid, diversified, balanced, and debt free, it is very very very easy to be sucked into a fear and greed emotional and mental cesspool resulting in deviant actions of financial insanity. Thank you Garth for your help in me maintaining my decades long focus of always putting my own freedom first. After all, the responsibility for myself falls on me alone, as do all the consequences, good or bad, which is good and right and a responsibility I gladly accept. I would not want it any other way. I am also blessed to also be able to help others, not enable, but truly help. Garth is a good role model for both, and has been for decades, and I need inspiration from good people.

#44 Strider on 12.29.14 at 9:45 pm

News Alert: Hot Asian Money is alive and well in Vancouver, at least according to Yahoo Finance (https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/vancouver-home-price-surge-worries-130418917.html):

“Vancouver has long boasted Canada’s costliest housing. But low interest rates and strong foreign demand, especially from Chinese buyers, have helped drive the cost of a typical detached home up nearly 30 percent in the last five years.”

Of course, as Garth pointed out in a post a few weeks ago, foreign buyers make up only a tiny fraction of all buyers in the Vancouver area. This hasn’t deterred reporters from blaming the Chinese for Van City’s sky-high house prices.

When will the financial media ever learn?

#45 Happity on 12.29.14 at 9:46 pm

“Meanwhile the global recovery will accelerate, sparked by the US economic renaissance…”

So where will this growth come from?

Not from rising real consumer incomes.

Not from rising consumer credit.

Not from rising real retail sales.

Not from the housing sector.

Not from a trade surplus.

The mysterious usa economic renaissance lol.

#46 Roman on 12.29.14 at 9:47 pm

RE in Toronto
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47YClVMlthI

compare to RE in US
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zqyQN6NnuY

#47 Peggy on 12.29.14 at 9:48 pm

Happy New Year Garth,Dorothy&Bandit
So very grateful for all you have done for us.Your the best there is!
Happy New Year to all, whom enjoy your blog!
Respectfuly Peggy

#48 omg the original on 12.29.14 at 9:53 pm

The first mortgage rate increase will ignite a flurry of buying as the moist virgins panic………..Following that, a broad and lengthy pall will fall over the housing market.
————————————-

As for the LONG GRIND down I think it will become the new normal in a few years, just as the long GRIND UP has become viewed as the normal over the past decade.

There are so many things that could go wrong for Canadian housing. Let me list the ways.

– we are at least 1/3 over valued versus our largest trading partner. And in some markets we are double or triple similar American cities (compare TO to Chicago, YVR the Seattle or Sand Diego, or YYJ to Portland).

– boomers will be cashing out over the next 20 years

– interest rates will return to normal or above as consumer driven economies reignite (like the US, EU and China)

– young Hippsters will get baby fever and start popping them out, thereby shifting priorities from hardwood floors to baby wipes

This will likely be a long GRINDING correction and could 10 to 15 years before a bottom is reached. The wildcard would be some nasty shock like a spike in rates – but that is unlikely.

Good things come to those who wait.

#49 Trini on 12.29.14 at 9:58 pm

http://www.rbcroyalbank.com/caribbean/bb/campaigns/meet-the-borrows.html

It’s all over the world. up to 8x salary to borrow for vacations, new car!

#50 Forzudo on 12.29.14 at 9:59 pm

The biggest European economies might have a chance to recover in 2015; however, there are still far too many cracks in the weaker 50% of the European economies.

That being said, I agree that prolonged low oil prices will help net importers, and will inversely hurt some smaller Middle East states, Russia, western Canada, Newfoundland, and oil-rich Texas.

But wherever international economies improve, so will everything from consumer confidence/spending, to equities, to big ticket consumer purchases.

Overall, not a bad set of predictions. As they say, fortune favours the bold.

#51 WhatToDo on 12.29.14 at 9:59 pm

I’ve got about $600k sitting in cash and that’s my entire net worth. I rent and own nothing of value. On one hand, that’s awesome, on the other hand, I need to do something with it.

With $600k, do I drop thousands of dollars on someone from this list:
http://www.moneysense.ca/directory-of-fee-only-planners

or should I implement a Canadian Couch Potato on my own?

If I use a pro, how much would I expect to pay (upfront and ongoing?)

#52 JohnL on 12.29.14 at 10:02 pm

US long bond yields don’t seem to be as optimistic as you are.
I hope they are wrong.

#53 Santini on 12.29.14 at 10:02 pm

Santino will rise in 2015

#54 Jamie on 12.29.14 at 10:07 pm

The US or Can dollar is toast?

#55 gumbygog on 12.29.14 at 10:08 pm

garth aren’t you sick of always being wrong ? when you gonna give it up , coward you won’t post this as usual anyway !

#56 chris on 12.29.14 at 10:10 pm

So the big question is, if we can afford to buy a sfd now and are willing to ride it out for 10+ years, will we cripple ourselves by doing so?

$375k sfd, $107k income. 20% down. First time buyers. Thanks.

I figure that the house would have to increase 2-3% a year to break even with where we would be if we were renting.

#57 rainclouds on 12.29.14 at 10:13 pm

“Diseased wrinkly” me so proud to be a club member.Palm Springs is the epicenter and I felt rather sprightly in the city where comparing happy hour is a sport.

Was In San Francisco talking to wife’s cousin. HR dude for Cisco. busy Busy……..Lots of hiring. California created 90K jobs in Nov alone

Much construction from LA to the Bay…..housing,commercial, highways other infrastructure. I-5 clogged with freight trucks.

Don’t get me started on outlet mall crowds………

USA recovery is apparent.

#58 IAMin C on 12.29.14 at 10:13 pm

So, what predictions in your book 2015 did –not– come true ?

#59 Tom from Mississauga on 12.29.14 at 10:13 pm

Unless US GDP growth passes China’s in 2015. It’s already pretty close.

#60 pravchaw on 12.29.14 at 10:14 pm

Garth – looks like you got the big themes right. What do you see 20 years from now, when us baby boomers are being planted in boxes? A boom in the cemetery industry? The Health care sector is in a tear, I think we will spend whatever it takes to stay alive – look at Gilead stock – has tripled in a year.
Here is good link on index returns:
http://news.morningstar.com/index/indexReturn.html
US stock market has returned 15.75 % compounded annually over the last 5 years. TSX has returned 4.44% compounded. Go figure.

#61 Rick Shaw on 12.29.14 at 10:15 pm

Any thoughts as to how much of household income can be dedicated towards rent? Would/should net worth even be considered if it’s less than say 1million?

#62 Greg Vezina on 12.29.14 at 10:19 pm

Knew you then, you were, still are, imagine…

#63 god GOD on 12.29.14 at 10:20 pm

2015

oil 42.50
gold 930
tsx 12780
dow 16700
canada real estate -4% toronto -1.4%
CAD$ 1.21

GOD KNOWNS EVERYTHING

#64 Naga on 12.29.14 at 10:22 pm

Garth this is a good time to reflect on long term historical performance: RE around 5%; Equities around 9%; and Bonds around 4%.

Today RE in major Canadian cities is being skewed by low interest rates and the realities of supply and demand.

The threat to my interest rate forecast is the future price of oil. If oil stays at current prices or lower prices for a long time, 3 to 5 years, and economies reflate then we will get higher interest rates, but only when central bankers fully convinced.

My forecast for 2015:
1. No rate hike for Canada;
2. Oil prices $45 to $65 range;
3. Canada GDP 2.5% picks up later in year;
4. RE GTA flat to slightly positive rest of the country flat with oil economies negative;
5. TSX 16,000

Happy and Healthy 2015 and keep up the good work

#65 LessFatOil on 12.29.14 at 10:26 pm

Hi Garth,

Happy New Year.

Read your book 30 years ago. I’m sitting here waiting on the “cusp”, waiting for the migration of my Boomer Generation, to move out of the suburban McMansions in their SUV’s.

I already encountered many, many Boomer peers who “downsized” into smaller luxury condos, of which, they either cost the same as their original large homes, or around the same price, as they sold at the top, and bought at the top.

One told me, it will be a good investment, he will hold it for 10 years he said. Later on, he said, it intends to hold it for 20 years.

Retired and renting.

#66 Robert on 12.29.14 at 10:26 pm

I read 2015 when it first came out. I am 52 and semi-retired. If Garth stops the blog it would be a shame but nothing lasts forever. A least you know Garth that alot of us have managed of finances to some degree. Thx bro.

#67 Washed Up Lawyer on 12.29.14 at 10:39 pm

My preliminary New Year resolutions:

1. Convert my son’s RESP to a legal defense fund;
2. Start implementing Garth’s advice;
3. Curtail my profligate spending;
4. Convince the Missus to take the $35,000 from her chequing account and put it in a TFSA;
5. Try to figure out when a Boomer like me (born 1956) becomes a Wrinkly (the scars from the pucks to the face are becoming harder to spot as they are starting to look like wrinkles now)
6. Quit thinking that the denizens of the kennel on this blog are the only friends I have.

WUL

#68 Jim Bentein on 12.29.14 at 10:40 pm

You have been ahead of the times Garth. Did you think the housing bubble in Canada would inflate for as long as it has? Of course not. Could you have imagined once fiscally responsible Canadians would take on more debt than their southern cousins? Of course not. What’s important is you understand trends better than any mainstream newspaper columnist I know of – or most economists. You’ll be proven right in time. And I suspect that time is coming.
Please keep up the good work in 2015.

#69 El Barto on 12.29.14 at 10:42 pm

There’s a freakonomics podcast on future financial forcasting that’s pretty good…”The folly of prediction”

#70 TurnerNation on 12.29.14 at 10:43 pm

This cocksure weblog with its penchant for fussy upper-crust hairstyles (ahem blog dog Scott).

When Dollarama begins stocking Depends it’ll be time to go long again.

#71 Terry on 12.29.14 at 10:43 pm

The Pope is wrong. Animals have no souls……only humans do. There will be no animals in heaven.

So let it be written….so let it be done!

#72 Rob on 12.29.14 at 10:45 pm

“complete with a $10,000 TFSA limit next January”

$10,000? I thought it was going to be $11,000. Don’t tell me that political promises are being broken before they’re even implemented!

$10,000 per person, January 2016. — Garth

#73 joblo on 12.29.14 at 10:46 pm

My friend sent me email & I thought this might be a good way to begin the New Year. All the best…

This is indeed a very exciting program, and I’ll explain it by using a Q & A format:

Q.. What is an ‘Economic Stimulus’ payment ?
A. It is money that the federal government will send to taxpayers.

Q… Where will the government get this money ?
A. From taxpayers.

Q.. So the government is giving me back my own money ?
A. Only a smidgen of it.

Q.. What is the purpose of this payment ?
A. The plan is for you to use the money to purchase a high-definition TV set, thus stimulating the economy.

Q.. But isn’t that stimulating the economy of China ?
A. Shut up.

Below is some helpful advice on how to best help the U.S. Economy by spending your stimulus check wisely:

* If you spend the stimulus money at Wal-Mart, Old Navy, or The Rack, the money will go to China or Sri Lanka ..

* If you spend it on gasoline, your money will go to the Arabs

* If you purchase a computer, it will go to India, Taiwan or China

* If you purchase fruit and vegetables, it will go to Mexico , Honduras and Guatemala …

* If you buy an efficient car, it will go to Japan or Korea ..

* If you purchase other useless stuff, it will go to Taiwan ..

* If you pay your credit cards off, or buy stock, it will go to management bonuses and they will hide it offshore.

Instead, keep the money in America by:

1) Spending it at yard sales, or

2) Going to ball games, or

3) Spending it on sex, or

4) Beer or

5) Tattoos.

(These are the only American businesses still operating in the U.S.)
In Canada: Go to a Jr. League hockey game – NHL games the money ends up in New York. You could also get your nails done – there a nail studios on every corner.
Conclusion:
Go to a ball game (hockey game – after a manicure) with a tattooed prostitute that you met at a yard sale and drink beer all day !
No need to thank me, my friend is happy he could be of help.

#74 ole Doberman on 12.29.14 at 10:50 pm

Garth what about the bond mkt, are you seeing a bubble there?

#75 slo mo on 12.29.14 at 10:54 pm

for the previous 20 years, end 1994- end 2014

Toronto stocks (TSX S&P)
+ 275%

Dow Jones
+ 289% (CURRENCY ADJUSTED)

S&P 500
+ 275% (CURRENCY ADJUSTED)

Gold
+ 165% (CURRENCY ADJUSTED)

Oil
+ 156% (CURRENCY ADJUSTED)

Toronto real estate
+ 140%

#76 Daniel Montecillo on 12.29.14 at 10:55 pm

This is a good website to see the growth of the worlds biggest economy

http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/world_economies_gdp/

#77 Ray Skunk on 12.29.14 at 10:55 pm

Can’t believe you tried to get into any kind of debate with Wynne over Twitter, SM. Waste of time getting into any dialogue with that sociopath unless you’re launching into a braying tirade of ass-kissing.

I wouldn’t give her the steam off my shit, never mind reduce my keyboard’s lifespan on her.

#78 east van on 12.29.14 at 10:59 pm

Meanwhile the global recovery will accelerate, sparked by the US economic renaissance and greased with half-price energy. Corporate profits have been robust, and as Europe, then China, revive thanks to bargain oil and increased US import demand, markets should continue to do well.

Yeah, but what happens if Russia, Venezuela, and Iran become failed States? And worse still, what if all the good citizens of Fort Mac have to sell their Dodge Ram 2500s?

#79 Canadian in Portland on 12.29.14 at 11:17 pm

Garth, Please explain your projections that China will turn around? Clearly, they have been running off of borrowed money through shadow banking and false statements and invoices across the board. Walmart was the first to enter China strongly, and the first to admit their numbers are false. BMW is doing the same now. And soon, any other major western retailer will readjust their accounting to remove the falsified Chinese retail numbers. The curtain has been pulled back from the wizard, and the magic from their boom is gone.

read China alone, by Anne Stevenson-Yang:

http://goo.gl/lXXswO

She’s a well researched person with a personal knowledge of just what is really happening in China. You would appreciate her take greatly, as it sounds similar to yours on the Canadian housing economy

Consider her the Garth Turner of China’s economy.

#80 Andrew Woburn on 12.29.14 at 11:23 pm

pravchaw on 12.29.14 at 10:14 pm
Garth – looks like you got the big themes right. What do you see 20 years from now, when us baby boomers are being planted in boxes? A boom in the cemetery industry? ====================

I was at a Vancouver funeral home this morning making arrangements for my 94 year old mother who wished to be cremated. I was told the area crematoria are so backed up it may take 60 days to carry out her wishes. I assume this is a sign of things to come.

#81 Quebec is Great on 12.29.14 at 11:28 pm

“So the big question is, if we can afford to buy a sfd now and are willing to ride it out for 10+ years, will we cripple ourselves by doing so? …. I figure that the house would have to increase 2-3% a year to break even with where we would be if we were renting.”
——————————————
Listen to what you are saying dude, honestly.
1) Are you taking into account the opportunity cost of the house investment? .. I doubt it.
2) Is it not highly probable that house prices will decline over the next ten years? .. yes
3) Is it not highly probable that a balanced investment in the markets will likely average you about 6% a year? .. yes

Balanced investing provides solid returns for the lowest risk. If your largest asset is real estate then your are taking on much higher risk for no added advantage. This is how you should analyze it! What is the probable rate of return and what is the risk? Housing is one of the worst investments you can make right now.

The price to rent ratio will give you added info in making a decision though external factors may influence your decision (and if so, I feel bad for you).

If you can rent more cheaply than buying, then why are you buying? I love renting – I can move anywhere my family wants to live, and we do this every year.

#82 Victor V on 12.29.14 at 11:36 pm

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/2014/12/29/canadian-consumers-are-ending-2014-on-a-grumpy-note&pubdate=2014-12-29

There’s also evidence the global plunge in crude oil prices is beginning to have an impact on the housing market at a time when Canadian households are sitting on record debt levels and with overvalued real estate.

The share of survey respondents who see real estate prices rising over the next six months fell to 32.3 per cent, a 2014 low for that question. The share expecting a decrease in prices rose to 14.4 per cent last week, the highest this year.

#83 bdy sktrn on 12.29.14 at 11:42 pm

Mortgages will not go any lower than they are now, and in fact will cost more in a year.
———————-
i’m not going to go back and look, but didn’t i hear this one before?

anyhow, what a powerful piece, that is some pretty damn solid, take it to the bank, hard hitting info there. we are very grateful for your sharing , you need to go GFglobal.

I am cheap sob but i’d pay 500/yr for this pathetic blog if i had to.

#84 Corban on 12.29.14 at 11:52 pm

After breakup, once these boys realize there is no job come September, the toys are going to be dumped on Kijiji. Good discounts on turbo diesel trucks, power sleds, and motorcycles.

#85 bdy sktrn on 12.30.14 at 12:00 am

“Gold is finished.”
——————————
if I may respectfully remind you Mr Turner, this blog, is not, i repeat; not, a gold blog.

but if it were
was there ever any good reason for the previous runs in the barbaric relic?
did it go up just on speculation?

is it finished forever now?

reminds me of a story, in 99 I had a new next door move in. turns out the guy was a eq trader at big house in van. did gold stocks.
i was riding the peak of the tech wave(yes, ok, bubble). gold was garbage. i was SURE the new wired world that was on the way (this one!) had no need for a shiny rock and it would never rise again. but it did.

whose to say it can’t happen again? logic be dammed.

but mostly USD seems big-strong right now so forget gold.

#86 Smartalox on 12.30.14 at 12:22 am

I doubt that the transitions predicted for 2015 will proceed as quickly as anyone thinks. Those mouldy, run down, ancient houses cited occasionally on this blog as bait for bidding wars are not being sold by boomers aged 65 to 75. Houses in that condition are being sold by 90 and 100 year olds – or as is more likely, their heirs.

Boomers will continue to age in place, selling their real estate only as a final option.

Even if prices drop in 2015, the cause will most likely be over extended 30 and 40 year olds, not boomers looking to finance any kinds of retirement.

I’d bet the only boomers looking to dump real estate to finance retirement are the ones who read this blog. The rest will stay where they are for 20 or 30 years more, such that when those homes finally do get sold, they’ll look as decrepit as the ones featured here, if not worse.

#87 Tony on 12.30.14 at 12:25 am

DELETED

#88 Pope - If RE goes down, how can TSX (banks and oil) go UP? on 12.30.14 at 12:42 am

If RE goes down, how can TSX (banks and oil) still go UP? risky prediction, eh?

I am curious how on earth this can happen!

halelujah

#89 45north on 12.30.14 at 12:49 am

My expectation is that this general trend will continue, with the exception of house prices. demographics are negative for real estate, and the positives – cheap rates, pent-up demand and easy debt – will diminish.

I agree but the decline in real estate will not be uniform. In the California, the outlying areas like San Bernardino lost 30% but the more expensive areas of San Francisco hardly lost at all. In Canada, we will see the same pattern. Outlying areas such as Milton will lose maybe a lot whereas downtown TO will not. A great deal depends on the price of gasoline. The present drop in gas prices props up the price in Milton but if the price were to go up to say $1.50 a liter then Milton could drop by 50%.

And, of course, we’ll have a federal election, complete with a $10,000 TFSA limit next January.

Yesterday’s chart “Ownership Society” showed that the rich have completely different kinds of assets than the rest. Obviously the rich will benefit from the higher TFSA limit but among the rest, most won’t. Funny how the political parties will spin this. The Conservatives will say that they have pointed the way to prosperity but the Liberals and NDP will say that most will not benefit. All three will be right.

Sub $40 oil: pro traders saying there are major bets being placed in the last few weeks for $40 oil

we’ll see but it sure looks like the Alberta real estate market is going to take a beating.

400 days : By 2016, 400 days from now, the spring real estate market will be more like the 2004-2005 NHL season.

is that when the NHL was on strike? Yeah it was
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004–05_NHL_lockout

I don’t think the analogy is a good one. In the lockout there were no games played at all. Even if the 2016 spring real estate market is the worst ever there will be some real sales.

Tedfiftyfour: I’ve spent 30 years in the Real Estate business and thought I was safe. Until I started to practise diversification I didn’t know what a good nights sleep was.

thanks for your story

Smoking Man: Yesterday it rained all day, pumped out ten thousand words of brilliant yet technically flawed Fiction.

careful, in the movie “A Murder of Crows”, the character played by Cuba Gooding stole a brilliant script but got set up

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0133985/?ref_=nv_sr_1

Wow, the power and organizations of the Young and Wellesley crowd

don’t let the bastards get you down

Freedom First: Now, the mood in Alberta has turned quietly solemn with oil crashing, the layoffs happening, and the Premiere saying that all Albertans will be sharing in the suffering to come.

the Alberta spring market will tell the story

#90 Mike on 12.30.14 at 12:50 am

“By the way, you should have known me in 1995. I was so cocky and sure of myself.”
Typo alert!!! Should of course read:
By the way, you should have known me in 1995. I was just as cocky and sure of myself.

#91 RayofLight on 12.30.14 at 12:53 am

#71 Terry
“The Pope is wrong. Animals have no souls……only humans do. There will be no animals in heaven.
So let it be written….so let it be done!”

I personally think everyone will be surprised when they die.

#92 4 AM Sunrise on 12.30.14 at 12:54 am

I found this American tale of real estate regret in my wanderings on the internet:

http://jrtom.dreamwidth.org/301607.html

For any Canadian whose net worth is still jacked up on real estate: this could be you in the next couple of years.

#93 mike morgan on 12.30.14 at 1:08 am

#54 Jamie

The US or CAD toast
Answer =US first and soon.

Renaissance in the USA really!
I would suggest anyone take a look at the usadebtclock .

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.14 at 1:15 am

@#2 Dee
“I chose to move here 8 years ago, and became a citizen in the interim. I can’t imagine living anywhere else…..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Apprently you havent heard of the age old Canadian tradition on how we deal with our “elders”….
Inuit[edit]

A common belief is that the Inuit would leave their elderly on the ice to die.[14] Senicide among the Inuit people was rare, except during famines. The last known case of an Inuit senicide was in 1939.[15][16][17]

aka “Senicide” Your new Canadian word for the day.
Betcha the old folks at Tims dont have a clue what yer talking about……

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.14 at 1:18 am

@#63 god GOD
“GOD KNOWNS EVERYTHING”

Wow! Who knew? God failed English…
But I digress.
God……Please enlighten me……..

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.14 at 1:29 am

@#19 Smoking Man
“One more night in this hell hole which kind of grew on me…… ”

Wow!
Halifax is a “hell hole” but Atlantic City is Nirvana…… Try visiting YHZ again in the summer.
It just may grow on you.
Uncle Garth cant be wrong…..

#97 4 AM Sunrise on 12.30.14 at 1:36 am

Attention blog dogs: I need dating advice!

The short version is: he bought a sailboat recently. He’s not wealthy. Should I run for the hills?

He has a good job providing an essential government-ish service as a member of a pitbull of a union (not the teachers’ union). I suspect he rents. I don’t know anything else about his finances because I haven’t actually spent time with him yet. My magical one-woman-Equifax powers don’t work unless I’ve had the chance to observe him for a couple of hours. (I said “observe”, so I don’t need to ask crass questions like, “so, um, like, d’ya own or rent?” That’s what makes my powers magical.)

I’ve heard that men are advised to steer clear of any woman who owns a pony (unless she’s 1% wealthy), and something about a sailboat rang my alarm bell. Is it the male version of the pony? I know of no other forum with a higher concentration of financially prudent people, so I’m looking forward to your answers. Thanks!

#98 LessFatOil on 12.30.14 at 1:42 am

So, according to Garth’s outlook, R/E will come down in 2015, and may come down for many years after.

So the “wrinklies” who sold their prized, luxury Boomer house, (within the recent years), to buy in its place….

a luxury condo with granite kitchen countertop, ceramic tiled floors, and “view”, to retire into….at the same price….

well….hopefully, they will have other savings, if the condo does not appreciate over the time they intend to live in it…. because at some point….lots of us Boomers… will be “relaxing” in…. “retirement homes”…

Cost? $40,000 Cdn +/- per year/per person

You think paying a monthly mortgage while working and making an income, is a large commitment? Huh huh?

Just wait until you have to pay $40,000 +/- per year, for a “studio” 12 foot x 15 foot room with a TV and…..

communal diningroom where you have to sit in the same chair every meal, so they know if you are missing or not.

Don’t want to pay $40k a year? Think…”shared” accommodation….4 people to a room…

in a Gov’t subsidized version with thin sheets, shared bathrooms, and no privacy, you can hear your neighbours burp ()() () and fart () () () .

Sorry…I digressed. I went from “real estate deflating” in 2015 ….to roommates deflating in 2025, 2035.

* * *
Many Boomers are still paying a mortgage on their Boomer house. And then downsize into a luxury condo, still carrying a mortgage.

A lot of my generation seem to feel a sense of “entitlement” over and beyond what is practical.

There is a myth, that things just get better and better and that retirement is all about “travelling”, “painting”, golfing, endless time for hobbies, R/E appreciation…. all the time.

#99 Mark on 12.30.14 at 1:56 am

My predictions:

a) The US “recovery” will increasingly be shown as a fabrication of the media as earnings estimates are revised dramatically downwards. Buybacks will be halted in their tracks as cashflow falls across a wide swath of the S&P500. The S&P500 will close considerably lower, in the 1500 range, by the end of the year.

b) Gold will creep up and over $1500/ounce, the result of not only falling production, but investor demand for counter-cyclical asset classes as another round of stimulus is prepared.

c) The TSX will be the big surprise for the year, largely on account of b). An index level of 18,000 sounds about right.

d) Falling Canadian housing prices will support the CAD$ as domestic deflation (CPI, housing, etc.) takes hold.

e) Most Canadians except the stock owners and those with substantial savings accounts in CAD$ and no debt will feel miserable. Dissatisfaction with the incumbent government will lead to, at best, a minority.

f) Real estate across Canada will continue its multi-year fall. The various REB’s will be increasingly unable to manipulate and/or selectively promote narrow “statistics” as the sales mix will be far more constant than the past year and a half of dramatic change.

g) Canadian bank earnings will continue to charge forward, and dividends will rise rewarding shareholders.

#100 Albert's Ex-Wife on 12.30.14 at 2:09 am

@ #1 Albert “first”

You were ALWAYS first darling. Most of the time you were the only.

#101 Financial Poodle on 12.30.14 at 2:31 am

DELETED

#102 nonplused on 12.30.14 at 2:38 am

Oh and here is another off topic response.

See, a lot of people thing government services are no god destined to fail. But our government provided (very local, county level) schools are quite good. Why? Well half the people around here are rich enough to send their kids to private school. Heck I even looked into it but it was too much for me. But the point is, where I live, if the public schools don’t do good then the kids go to private schools. With the competition, the public schools do good too. No complaints. Downtown is a different matter.

#103 Red Deer Rob on 12.30.14 at 2:49 am

@ Freedom First

I always enjoy reading your comments. I get the feeling your philosophy on life is similar to mine. I also agree with your observation of there being a somber mood in the province. It’s kind of like that feeling when you notice the tide is about to change and people are out playing in deep water oblivious to the rip current.

#104 A Yank in BC on 12.30.14 at 3:20 am

#75 slo mo on 12.29.14 at 10:54 pm

slo mo,

I believe that your figures for the 20 yr total gain of both the Canadian and U.S. markets are far too conservative, as they do not seem to include re-invested dividends. And even if the dividends paid-out were retained instead of reinvested, they would have to be included in your figures for an apples-to-apples comparison against those other asset classes, which pay no dividends.

#105 gold bug on 12.30.14 at 4:30 am

DELETED

#106 Goldie on 12.30.14 at 4:54 am

The cost of living in lower mainland BC is going up again next year. Hydro-6%, ferry fares 4%, property taxes, car insurance. The average family will be paying hundreds more. Oh, and maybe a .5% increase in local sales tax to help pay for public transit, which was semi-privatized like the ferries; which only served to send prices skyrocketing ( what a croc “privitization” is ).

So, shall we discuss how comically flawed the official inflation index is?

#107 Exurban on 12.30.14 at 5:36 am

Seems to be prediction time around here. Let me try another approach. Have you noticed that oil, the most important commodity in the world, has lost literally half of its value inside the last six months? No hype, it was over $110 in the summer and it’s under $55 now. Anybody predict that? BNN, Squawk Box, Cramer, anybody?

Hmmm.

#108 Andy on 12.30.14 at 6:23 am

Garth, since the TSX (and Canada’s economy in general) are so dominated by commodities and commodity-related services, isn’t the index itself due for some trouble?

#109 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 12.30.14 at 8:23 am

A house is a place to live, not an investment. Least that’s what this guy thinks. Sounds like he knows what he’s talking about.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/think-of-your-home-as-a-place-to-live-not-an-investment-2014-12-30?dist=beforebell

#110 TO Renter on 12.30.14 at 8:25 am

#85 Smartalox
________
A year ago, I would have agreed with you but health issues or the death of one spouse can change everything for the older set trying to stay in their houses. Those are predictable with age, yet unforseen and unplanned for, but change EVERYTHING on the financial front.

#111 maxx on 12.30.14 at 8:39 am

“pent-up demand”….realtards, heed the wake up call and find additional sources of income.
This “pent up demand” is now sublimating into alternative choices, such as buyers taking their sweet time (no rush at all now and for a long time going forward) and realizing that former plans have changed.
IMHO, an entire buying cycle (at least) will be skipped due to insanely high prices caused by destructively low rates.

#112 jess on 12.30.14 at 9:41 am

This article from the st. louis fed. reasons why the homeownership rate is not a predictor of future house prices
http://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/homeownership-and-house-prices-no-longer-in-sync/

This suggests that growth in manufacturing does not equal growth in manufacturing jobs.
http://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2014/12/manufacturing-is-growing-even-when-manufacturing-jobs-are-not/

=========
http://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2014/12/more-severe-unemployment-in-southern-europe/

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.14 at 9:44 am

@#95 4am Sunbaked
“He’s not wealthy. Should I run for the hills?’
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Hmmmm.
Those two sentences just about sum up everything we need to know about you.
Materialism trumps love.
You’re a keeper.

#114 CAN 256 rigs, down 135 for the week on 12.30.14 at 9:47 am

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irol-rigcountsoverview

No explanation needed, 135 rigs shut down since the last report from Dec.19, 2014

Drill baby, drill!

As for the Canadian RE – no significant changes – unless we see a significant reduction (10-20%) and pay cut in the “public service”.

Booming USA economy – not sure about that but below is the leaked video clip from Putin with his New Year 2016 appeal to the Russia.

http://youtu.be/2GyyVfjAmvA

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.14 at 9:50 am

@#103 Exurban
“Have you noticed that oil, the most important commodity in the world, has lost literally half of its value inside the last six months? No hype, it was over $110 in the summer and it’s under $55 now.”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

and yet gas at the pumps has dropped from $1.47 at the pumps to $1.07 in Scamcouver.

Anywho.
Oil will hit $40.00 before stablizing. Then a long climb back to $80.00 before July.
More importantly…where will OUR dollar be?

#116 Detalumis on 12.30.14 at 9:57 am

Most people here have obviously never lived around seniors. I moved into a senior area in my mid-30s by accident so spent the last 14 years observing them. Almost nobody goes to a so-called “retirement” home. Those are for people that are too social to live on their own, they can’t deal with it. So think a person who has never been on their own ever in life.

You turn into a wrinkly at 50, it’s called 50+ in marketing terms. A 51 year old lawyer and Nana in “the home” are one and the same to advertisers and to society. Nobody tries to sell you a single thing which can be liberating but is really dumb from a sales point of view. They think that because in 1960 a person over 50 was less likely to change brands that this is much like the 10 commandments, an irrefutable fact that can never change.

It’s much like thinking that because the ladies around me have curly bird’s nests perms and think scratch tickets are fun that I am going to take up bingo and go get a wash and set every week as well.

Your comment about “thirsty underwear” shows a lack of compassion. It’s very common in quite young women well down in their late 30s and up, no Caesareans increases your chances quite dramatically. They suffer in silence and don’t even tell their doctors.

The other group are the prostate men who also lie to their friends about side effects, incontinence and impotence are hugely lied about, the researchers can’t even figure out the numbers after surgical procedures as nobody tells the truth. They have to buy the stuff online or send their wife. Your third group are very, very, very old seniors with dementia. So yeah really big joke ha, ha, have a laugh at the human condition. Those stupid mothers stupid enough to procreate wear pads the rest of your life but ssssh don’t ever, ever say it happened to you. Even “breast” cancer came out of the closet eventually.

#117 Renter's Revenge! on 12.30.14 at 9:58 am

Dating advice for 4 AM Sunrise:

Given the fact that only Saskatchewan and the arctic ever have 4 am sunrises, this guy sounds like a bit of a dope for buying a sailboat. Unless by “sailboat” he means a hotbox that he built in his backyard to smoke weed, then cool.

If, by your screen name, you are deceiving us, and in fact live on one of the good coasts, then he sounds badass and you should date him. Also, I’ve never dated a woman with a pony, but it sounds cool, so I would do that at least once in my life if I had the chance, if only for the novelty. Then I would have to see how the pony fit into our life together.

Life is about more than money, after all. Transportation is important too.

#118 Smoking Man on 12.30.14 at 10:25 am

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.14 at 1:29 am
@#19 Smoking Man
“One more night in this hell hole which kind of grew on me…… ”

Wow!
Halifax is a “hell hole” but Atlantic City is Nirvana…… Try visiting YHZ again in the summer.
It just may grow on you.
Uncle Garth cant be wrong…..

…….

I was staying in Dartmouth, need I say more..

#119 Herb on 12.30.14 at 10:30 am

#95 4 AM Sunrise,

go sailing with him for a couple of hours to find out if he’s a loser or not. If he sails competently (you’ll feel that by the way the boat moves, deliberately, fully under his control, without jerks or unnecessary changes in direction), he’s worth further consideration. There is no more honest sport than sailing, and I have found that how a man sails is how he is (women too).

#120 LP on 12.30.14 at 10:32 am

#100 Albert’s Ex-Wife on 12.30.14 at 2:09 am
@ #1 Albert “first”

You were ALWAYS first darling. Most of the time you were the only.
*********************

It took a few moments but then I got it. My vote for best comeback of the year.

#121 Herb on 12.30.14 at 10:32 am

Sorry, 4 AM Sunrise at #97, not 95.

#122 FormerBlogDog on 12.30.14 at 10:35 am

Not holding my breath on that housing decline Garth.

#123 down and out on 12.30.14 at 10:48 am

Personal experience in our families was elder parents hung on to homes even claiming they wanted to die there. The doctor who said we are living longer “sicker” was right on. Both sets of parents and uncles had to sell to pay for around the clock care ,one set into assisted living ,neither set of parents would listen to us about selling ,finally a trusted financial adviser laid out a plan .They listen to an outsider better than family as we all know and a plan was hatched just in time before health issues caused major problems . In conclusion most baby boomers may not make out as well as their parents because demographics mean longer wait times for everything from health care to mass selling of houses . Governments are reactive not proactive to coming problems of the biggest group of seniors to stress the system. Woe is me and you without a plan .

#124 Rational Optimist on 12.30.14 at 11:04 am

116 Detalumis on 12.30.14 at 9:57 am

The first part of your post about marketers not evolving from the 1960s is amusing, the latter part of your post is I think a bit unfair. I likely don’t have as much experience with seniors as you do, but I have some, and I rather enjoy Garth’s candid attitude towards issues like incontinence. I prefer references to “thirsty diapers”- as you point out, it’s part of the human condition, so why shouldn’t we have a sense of humour about it? I don’t think it’s a lack of compassion at all- many of the readers here are young, and realizing that this is something common, and contemplating it with humour rather than horror, is a good first step towards developing empathy about it.

#125 Incubus on 12.30.14 at 11:21 am

“Oil, ever volatile, will probably stay cheap. ”

Probably less than most people think.

“Sub-$55 Oil Has U.S. Drillers Idling Most Rigs in 2 Years”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-29/oil-rigs-in-u-s-drop-by-37-to-lowest-level-since-april.html

#126 Happy Renting on 12.30.14 at 11:34 am

#97 4 AM Sunrise on 12.30.14 at 1:36 am

Spend some time with this guy to see if you like him as a person! Even if he’s not your cup of tea (or an irredeemable financial poodle) you might at least enjoy a few hours out on that sailboat.

#127 TheManwhoStaresatSheeple on 12.30.14 at 11:52 am

Herb (post#119) and the man from post #97 are both members of the new Canadian upper class:

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/business/the-new-upper-class

Being 3.6 Million+ active members strong plus new 22,000 addition in the last month alone plus the millions more “public sector” retirees means one thing only – no significant change in the course of the Canadian RE in the near time-frame!

#128 HD on 12.30.14 at 12:04 pm

#97 4 AM Sunrise on 12.30.14 at 1:36 am

“The short version is: he bought a sailboat recently. He’s not wealthy. Should I run for the hills?”

Red flag right there if you ask me. Do not run for the hills yet but investigate further. Who knows, maybe something else will come up.

My 2 cent.

Dating is hard in Van…sigh.

Best,

HD

#129 HD on 12.30.14 at 12:11 pm

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.14 at 9:44 am

@#95 4am Sunbaked
“He’s not wealthy. Should I run for the hills?’
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Hmmmm.
Those two sentences just about sum up everything we need to know about you.
Materialism trumps love.
You’re a keeper.
—————————-

I might be wrong but I don’t think this is what she meant. Her concern is how can he justify owning a boat if he is not wealthy?

Best,

HD

#130 Derek R on 12.30.14 at 12:11 pm

#93 mike morgan on 12.30.14 at 1:08 am wrote:
I would suggest anyone take a look at the usadebtclock

I just did. What a misleading site! The good citizens of the US currently owe each other over $146 trillion but the usadebtclock shows that they only owe $18 trillion. Talk about a wild underestimate!

Why on earth doesn’t it include the whole picture? There’s a lot more debt in the US than this Pollyanna site would lead you to believe.

#131 TorontoBull on 12.30.14 at 12:12 pm

I disagree re demographics as baby boomers delay retirement and the echo generation is getting into their prime homebuying years, which should continue for another5 years or so. This means lower inventory and higher demand

#132 Kilt on 12.30.14 at 12:15 pm

“The first mortgage rate increase will ignite a flurry of buying as the moist virgins panic – ensuring they buy at the top with the greatest possible amount of debt.”

You do realize that this could be interpreted as – “Garth Turner predicts vibrant housing market for 2015!”

Kilt

#133 Uh Oh Canada on 12.30.14 at 12:20 pm

Thanks Garth. Just bought some bond/equity ETFs. Been following your financial advice for 2+ years and doing fine in self managing my portfolio.

#134 Arfmooocat on 12.30.14 at 12:25 pm

U.S. home price growth slows further in October-S&P/Case-Shiller

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-home-price-growth-slows-140230529.html

Yet our Canadian economy heading the opposite direction of the U.S. still has a hard on for housing. Hilarious

#135 4 AM Sunrise on 12.30.14 at 12:36 pm

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.14 at 9:44 am

Context, context, context…

I used too few words to ask, “is buying a sailboat – rumoured to be a money pit – a wise financial decision for somebody who doesn’t have that kind of money to burn?” Some of the brighter bulbs in this room (the one who said “financial poodle” – hee hee hee) got it. Sorry you didn’t. If he were over-leveraged on 5%-down real estate and had no savings, I’d run for the hills. Am I still materialistic then? I haven’t even researched the circumstances under which I would be forced to be responsible for half of that debt.

Is a man “materialistic” if he steers clear of a woman who, for example, finances her life with credit and has no savings?

#136 Don Derc on 12.30.14 at 12:38 pm

joblo #73 – bang on – no predictions there , just the reality of the situation. This info should be dissected a little deeper, and taught in every high school class in the country – lord knows the parents aren’t teaching it….

#137 Dub on 12.30.14 at 12:49 pm

http://www.foxbusiness.com/static/managed/img/fb2/markets/GS-Exhibit-3.jpg

US economy is gearing up … it has a lot more steam to go forward.

#138 Apocalypse2015 on 12.30.14 at 12:58 pm

David Stockman seems to me to be the most correct in analyzing the falsity of the so-called U.S.A. recovery.

Sorry Garth, but the American ‘recovery’ story is simply too shallow and fake to be believed. Over 52% of Americans make $30,000 or less, and 5 banks now have 40 Trillion dollars exposure to derivatives there. Some 65% of American children are in homes receiving some sort of federal financial aid.

And if the people there want to distract themselves from all this with a little adult play, one third of Americans have an STD. (Smoking Man, keep your pants on at Seneca!)

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/50-numbers-from-2014-that-reflect-on-the-times/

What we have seen in the U.S.A. is a long slow dead cat bounce, nothing more, I am afraid.

In 2015 this will be much clearer in front of us. More protests, rampant disease (maybe Ebola will hit there too) and social disruption as the 1% get even richer at everyone elses expense. Droughts, urban water shortages and freak storms all over.

And elsewhere, China (where 85% of artificial Christmas trees are made) is flexing its muscle more and more. Just when the U.S.A. thinks it has Russia cornered, watch out for the powerful alliance the Russians are building with China and China’s emerging military superpower status.

http://asia.nikkei.com/magazine/20141218-MORE-MONEY-MORE-GUNS/Cover-Story/In-showing-off-its-new-toys-China-isnt-playing-nice

But don’t worry, Obama has a plan to deal with all this.

Fore!

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-12-29/soldiers-relocate-wedding-to-accommodate-obamas-golf-game

#139 Ontario's Left Coast on 12.30.14 at 1:06 pm

WhatToDo on 12.29.14 at 9:59 pm
I’ve got about $600k sitting in cash and that’s my entire net worth…

Ten years ago, I set up with a discretionary wealth manager (a division of one of the Canadian chartered banks) and remain very happy with my decision. They do charge a smidge over 1% but I believe they have more than made up for it via their calls on asset mix, portfolio cycling and tax efficiency. Watch out, my manager just increased its minimum investment to $1M, so you may have to shop around. I know I could have gone the ETF route for much less but I truly believe the fee has been worth it in my case in terms of peace of mind. Good luck to you!

#116 Detalumis on 12.30.14 at 9:57 am
Most people here have obviously never lived around seniors…

I’ve seen your comments here and on the G&M and I have to say that you are one of the most depressing trolls I have ever had the displeasure of encountering. If you can’t see the obvious tongue-in-cheek humour in Garth’s comments then maybe it’s time to take up another hobby such as bingo.

#140 4 AM Sunrise on 12.30.14 at 1:11 pm

#107 Exurban on 12.30.14 at 5:36 am

Some TA (no T&A though) is on BNN right now saying he called for $55 back in the summer. There’s always one out there…

I do remember in the summer that something felt off to me when people were fawning over Eric Nuttal, manager of the Sprott Energy Fund (down 35%), as some sort of wunderkind.

#141 Doug in London on 12.30.14 at 1:13 pm

@4AM sunrise, post #136:
Is a man “materialistic” if he steers clear of a woman who, for example, finances her life with credit and has no savings?
—————————————————————-
No, not at all, he’s just plain ordinary sensible.

#142 Retired Boomer - WI on 12.30.14 at 1:18 pm

Demographics is Destiny. Predictions based upon them have been more correct than any others.

2015 I’ll enjoy cheap oil as long as it lasts, then will buy what I need at whatever price the market demands!

Stocks should do ok, bond rates rise somewhat. More warming, less fish, rain, and food costs go up.

politicians react to money-nothing else works. Boomers get older some croak, more stop working. Governments cut promises to elderly and near-elderly modestly.

Those who realized demographics do ok, those that didn’t need help, the rest unwilling to help (screw you attitude prevails). 2015 will feel like a ‘downer’ year to most

#143 LessFatOil on 12.30.14 at 1:21 pm

#97 4 AM Sunrise

Is he planning to live in his sailboat? That would be interesting.
The bathroom is called the “head”.

It costs a lot of money to dock the boat and put in drydocks in winter and insurance.

Maybe he can teach you how to sail. If you took a course at Humber College and joined the school Sailing Club for a season, that alone would cost over $3,000 (if they still teach that there.)

Bring soda crackers on board for stomach. I found that sailing was not just about wearing white clothes and sitting and relaxing.

There was a lot of work to do. Pulling the lines and winching them, moving the sail from side to side when tacking, being a lookout to avoid collision with other boats.

I was taught this rule: When on a boat, one hand must always hold onto something, especially when walking. (one can easily slide off, as sail boat is often slanted and not level, can get very windy out there).

Sailing is good discipline, difficult to do, and sailors have to foresee problems in the future and deal with unforeseen emergencies in a calm manner. Sailing involves planning a route, reading the charts, avoiding being stuck in a sandbank and avoid unseen rocks below the surface of the water.

(He can show you where and how to use the flares, in case something happens to him out on the water, and you are on your own at the helm.) I guess sailing is like life and finances.

Happy New Year.

#144 Mark on 12.30.14 at 1:31 pm

“Garth, since the TSX (and Canada’s economy in general) are so dominated by commodities and commodity-related services, isn’t the index itself due for some trouble?”

The commodity-producing firms have had the proverbial tar beaten out of them for the past few years and most are scraping along at levels more similar to 2009 lows, adjusted for retained earnings.

I’d suggest that the carnage in commodities has mostly been priced into the index, and the index may even begin to, over the next few years, reflect the upside of a future expansion.

The entire precious metals sector, for instance, is trading at less than book value, which is, in and of itself, a fraction of the true replacement cost of the assets. And there are other sectors which are historically very cheap as well. If you want value, the TSX, minus the pipelines and retaillers, is a great place to start looking.

#145 Terry on 12.30.14 at 1:32 pm

#135
You are correct . Garth is wrong.Gold is virtually flat on the year :
$1204.50 USD on Dec 31 , 2013
$1205.10 USD today , Dec 30,2014

I realize this is not a gold blog and fair enough Garth, but if you are going to blog about the YTD performance of gold you should actually be using the correct figures.

#146 Porsche on 12.30.14 at 1:34 pm

Yet our Canadian economy heading the opposite direction of the U.S. still has a hard on for housing. Hilarious

……………………………………………………………………….

and housing in this commodity driven economy is twice the price… go figure

#147 dosouth on 12.30.14 at 1:52 pm

More cuts…..

30% of staff cut in Ft. McMurray and area…

#148 gladiator on 12.30.14 at 1:55 pm

Just now on BNN:
“Luxury home sales in Calgary break records in December.”

#149 economictsunami on 12.30.14 at 1:57 pm

In this “new normal” from the centrally planned global financial landscape we have endured for the past 72 plus months and upon the sun setting of QE 1, 2 & Twist ( w/ resulting market spasms) the Fed honestly believes it can successfully manage expectations over the process of increasing rates.

The Wall St investment narrative (ie. Why the US will power the world economy in 2015: http://tinyurl.com/ph42pja ) appears to project that the statistical US economic recovery will ride to the rescue of the global economy; with their contrived 5% final Q3 GDP data (sustainability/revisions?) employment gains, consumers retiring debt (although, through bankruptcy is probably not a good thing) and possible consumption from savings realized by falling energy prices.

The resulting lower oil fall out will mean the loss of many direct, well paying employment opportunities, with an additional outreach of 4 energy sector related jobs. We are already witnessing the pull back in future expansion of projects in energy, mining and some sub contractors have begun trimming payrolls.

Add to this: Japan, Euro Zone and the BRICs bouncing from stagnation to recession, China slowing/reforming and the 2015 global growth consensus expectations have steadily been revised downward to slightly above 2.5% by both ratings agencies and big investment banks.

So far, the bond market and the Saudis have shown great guile but the Fed is quite simply looking for the easing way out…

#150 Sam604 on 12.30.14 at 2:07 pm

Great post Garth. Any plans to write “2035”?

#151 Growacet on 12.30.14 at 2:22 pm

pent up demand, house horniness, real estate lust, swelling equities, bullion lickers, metalheads and property virgins. These are a few of my favourite things. Here’s to 2015, Cheers!

#152 Mister Obvious on 12.30.14 at 2:31 pm

#31 Food For Thought

A well-considered theory on the near future of Vancouver RE. Thanks for sharing.

Personally, I know of a few retired couples in the Greater Vancouver area for whom the future has already arrived.

That is to say, they have already tried to sell their homes for a price that realtors have convinced them is realistic but have been unable to attract offers after many, many months on the market.

They are now off the market waiting for ‘improved’ conditions.

#153 Happy Renting on 12.30.14 at 2:34 pm

#136 4 AM Sunrise on 12.30.14 at 12:36 pm

I guess we need more details on this one, which probably means you do, too. If we take the sailboat to be indicative of his general situation, it would help to know if it was something lavish or a simple, used one he got for a couple of thousand bucks (a Hobie Cat counts as a sailboat, doesn’t it?)

The angle I’m going for is that if he’s dumb with his money, well, a lot of us started that way. Eventually something (or someone) helped us get our heads on straight(er). If you like him but he’s a financial disaster, it’s only a deal breaker if he insists on remaining a financial disaster. As HD said, dating is hard, so don’t make it harder by rejecting people before you’ve even given them a chance (or at least a date.)

#154 maxx on 12.30.14 at 2:39 pm

#43 Freedom First on 12.29.14 at 9:42 pm

“…… I can tell you that many of the Boomers who own houses I have talked with during the RE run-up in Alberta, have no work pensions and many have little money besides their house equity.”

Many also have debt, and lots of it. IMHO, quality of life in retirement is found by retiring all debt, seeking fun and growing wealth- not defining one’s life through brick-licking. Oh well……..

P.S.: Great moniker, you obviously get it.

#155 Dwilly on 12.30.14 at 2:41 pm

Hey Garth. Would love to hear about some of your 1995 picks that didn’t turn out so well? Don’t mean this in any way to be insulting, honestly just curious. Sounds like quite a few of the things you predicted came to pass. Any that didn’t? And why not?

#156 Mister Obvious on 12.30.14 at 2:43 pm

#71 Terry

“There will be no animals in heaven.”
———————–

No lawyers either.

#157 Marcus on 12.30.14 at 2:53 pm

Consider all sides of an argument. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-30/robert-shiller-fragile-real-estate-market-not-good-investment#comments

Why do we care about SF or Miami? — Garth

#158 Debtfree on 12.30.14 at 3:15 pm

@ 71 terry humans ARE animals . Even though some of us seem to be more vegetable with the mental flexibility of a mineral . If souls actually do exist then all living things have one . As it was written ? by some tent dwelling goat herder in the big book of Jewish fairy tales . Religulas . You can break any law you like except for the laws of physics . Try as you may .

#159 Russ L on 12.30.14 at 3:39 pm

4 AM Sunrise on 12.30.14 at 1:36 am Attention blog dogs: I need dating advice!
The short version is: he bought a sailboat recently. He’s not wealthy. Should I run for the hills?
——————————————-
Hey 4 AM,
Grab a coffee this might take awhile.

A recent sailboat but is he a new sailor? If he’s a new sailor AND just bought a boat then run.

Otherwise it’s worth a chance as everyone knows a good sailor is more interesting than anyone, including bikers. Sorry Garth. (I’m both)

Wealth is more than net worth. A truly weathly person has a sense of freedom far above what you will find in the indentured populace.

The story:
At age 26 I traded my house & mortgage for a sailboat lying in Florida. The mortgage was coming up for renewal @ 16% interest rate!
My girlfriend of 3 months joined me in Jamaica, She didn’t even know what a winch handle is.
We sailed to the South Pacific and back to B.C., engaged. I couldn’t stand renting so after the winter we bought a sailboat to live on. 18 months later she couldn’t stand liveaboard life anymore so we bought a shack in town with 30% down. I paid that off before my 31st birthday.
So here we are, married 30 years (to each other) with a 7 fig net worth, of which RE and other illiquids are lower than the rule of 90.
We always owned yachts & motorcycles, no ponies, and are living the dream.

“Take a chance and you won’t be sorry for a might-have-been.”

#160 DM in C on 12.30.14 at 3:58 pm

20 years ago we had no idea we’d go through bankruptcy (stupid house), come out the other side and be the better for it.

Didn’t know we’d be ‘the worst parents in the world’ either!

Ah hindsight. Wouldn’t have bought the house…… or…..

#161 Retired Boomer - WI on 12.30.14 at 4:15 pm

No animals in heaven?

Fine, then I’ll go to hell.

There I can talk to Lawyers, who are more interesting than most others, maybe dogs, vats, and politicians, too…
maybe even a few popes

#162 Victor V on 12.30.14 at 4:27 pm

Nine dead across three crime scenes in Edmonton area: sources

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com/2014/12/30/edmonton-police-investigate-suspicious-death-at-home-at-least-two-dead&pubdate=2014-12-30

According to the City of Edmonton records, the home was built in 2012. Government documents show a $365,000 mortgage was taken out that July. Both owners been facing financial pressures, documents show. A 35-year-old woman listed as an owner had a $25,000 judgment issued against her in December 2013 after being sued by the Royal Bank, who supplied the mortgage. The other owner had filed for bankruptcy in October.

#163 Fred Smith on 12.30.14 at 4:32 pm

I agree with most things Garth says. However, I saw Garth give a talk in Kelowna several years ago not long after Obama was elected. I was quite disappointed in Garth when he did some Obama bashing. Keep in mind this was basically at the height of the Republican led meltdown in the financial system and house prices.

Wonder what he has to say now that both those things are starting to run full steam on all cylinders now under Obama’s watch.

I have no idea what I said. Therefore I am not in any way responsible for it. — Garth

#164 Smoking Man on 12.30.14 at 6:01 pm

#162 Retired Boomer – WI on 12.30.14 at 4:15 pm
No animals in heaven?

Fine, then I’ll go to hell.

There I can talk to Lawyers, who are more interesting than most others, maybe dogs, vats, and politicians, too…
maybe even a few popes
…..

You’re losing you mind…. Doesn’t it feel good…

#165 Entrepreneur on 12.30.14 at 6:20 pm

Good post and right on the mark regarding the aging population. Nice to hear that investments are going up.

We do have to be careful of Putin; he is a trained soldier and fighter. He kicked out 6 McDonalds which tells us that he does not like our democracy system. Our system needs to be updated to appeal to others. My thoughts.

As for going out with a guy on the sailboat, as I said to my younger sister, “You think too much.” Sounds like you are too many steps ahead of yourself; start with step one and go from there.

#166 jess on 12.30.14 at 6:38 pm

Abandoned NHS IT system has cost £10bn so far
Bill for abortive plan, described as ‘the biggest IT failure ever seen’, was originally estimated to be £6.4bn

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/dec/30/nhs-computer-sciences-corporation-penalty-accounting-errors

#167 Shawn Allen on 12.30.14 at 6:50 pm

For what it is worth… Gold prices
in U.S. dollars

Garth may have accidently used the Gold price from the start of 2013 rather than end 2013/ start 2014.

End 2012 $1664

End 2013 $1204.50

http://www.onlygold.com/Info/Historical-Gold-Prices.asp

Dec 30 2014 $1200.7

Gold decline in 2014 0% (rounded)

#168 Cici on 12.30.14 at 6:57 pm

#51 WhatToDo

Is that a bad joke? Or are you new to reading this blog?

It’s been stated countless times in numerous blog posts on this site that an advisor should be handling your funds once you get past the $150,000 to 200,000 mark, and that said advisor shouldn’t cost you more than 1% annually.

If you want Garth’s help, contact him directly: http://www.turnertomenson.ca

#169 The Englishman on 12.30.14 at 7:16 pm

Residential property prices falling in Canada? We’ll send you some of our immigrants, that’ll do the trick.

#170 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.14 at 7:24 pm

@#135 4am Sunburn
Sorry my “bulb” is too dim for your unwritten words.
I was just going by the context with which you had written the “dating” question.
You mentioned his “government-ish” ( ie well paid and secure)job, the fact that he rented(ie instead of owned), and his purchase of a sailboat(an expensive toy).
Sorry if I assumed that in THAT context you sounded a tad greedy and oppourtunistic when hunting for a good “catch”.
You go girl!

#171 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.14 at 7:27 pm

@#118 Smoking Man
“I was staying in Dartmouth, need I say more..”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Ah yes “Darkness” as my friends call that beloved ‘burb.
Well Look on the bright side.
The Halifax Hells Angels clubhouse resides in Dartmouth.
Tax breaks I think………

#172 Retired Boomer - WI on 12.30.14 at 7:41 pm

#162 Smoking Man

Actually, it does feel rather… liberating!

#173 Not a gold licker, but ... on 12.30.14 at 10:05 pm

First things first: Thank you, Mr Turner, for your freely given advice, from which I’ve benefited over the past three years. Balance, diversity, liquidity: In 2015, I do believe, many will learn that one or even two out of three ain’t good enough. You, and every good dog, deserves a fabulous, prosperous, and injury-free new year, and that’s what I wish for you.

On the matter of gold, a few comments. “Gold is finished” has a nice rhetorical ring to it, but is it accurate?

I’m no gold licker, and my view is that gold should probably not constitute more than 5% of any balanced portfolio. But if we review the performance of gold as an asset class over the past year, here are a few facts worth considering.

On 1 January 2014, the price of gold was $1,275 CAD/ounce. On 30 December 2014 the price was $1,391 CAD. This is an increase of 9%, which beats many a balanced, diversified and liquid portfolio.

The same figures, in Australian dollar (I’m Australian), are:
1 January 2014: $1,347 AUD
26 December 2014 $1,473 AUD
Increase: 9.4%

When we consider the Russian Ruble:
1 January 2014: $39,276 RUB
29 December 2014 $69,226 RUB
Increase: 76%

My tentative conclusions:
1) In US dollar terms, gold’s performance over the past year has certainly been less than stellar. It sure has beaten a couple of Canadian and US energy shares, though.
2) Gold’s performance compared to commodity currencies, including the Australian and Canadian dollar, has been very respectable, at close on 10 per cent.
3) When measured in terms of currencies that have imploded over the course of the year, such as the Russian ruble, gold has done exactly what the gold lickers maintain it has been doing very well for the past five millennia, namely preserve the capital of those who held it.

There may be a lesson in there, somewhere.

All the best for the new year, all you fellow pathetic blog addicts!