Market update

TRUCK modified

Mark Jennings-Bates is a realtor in Kelowna. His house is for sale. In fact, it’s been listed for three years. Says Mark, “There’s barely been a showing and I have many friends in the same position.”

So he was confused, he says, when the latest Re/Max report came out. Here’s how it was reported by the chicklets at Global:

KELOWNA – Re/Max is forecasting some great news for housing markets across the country in 2015. Regional Executive Vice President of Re/Max Western Canada, Elton Ash, predicts Kelowna will see the highest increase in average home prices in the country. “Kelowna is a destination market, recreational property is a big plus here and then the local economy is doing really well. So if you take those three factors and put them together, it means it’s a great time for Kelowna real estate prices,” says Ash.

And here’s how the local Kelowna media spun it:

Kelowna’s real estate market is booming; sales are up, prices are up, everything is up. A new Housing Market Outlook Report released by RE/MAX Canada shows nothing but positivity for the upcoming year.  The report indicates there is considerable optimism in Kelowna’s 2015 real estate market, as consumer confidence continues to rebound as a result of low interest rates, steady job growth, and a strong prairie resource market.

“People are feeling better about their job situation and the overall economy. Just go around to the restaurants and out in the city, people are out and about buying goods and services, including real estate and cars,” says Cliff Shillington of Remax Kelowna. “I am very happy to say that the vibe in Kelowna is the most positive it has been since 2008.”

According to Jennings-Bates, this is a crock. Of course, we all know Re/Max ‘reports’ are unadulterated hyperbole, but they still get reported as news. The influence on the gullible, naïve and unformed is hard to know. And it could not come at a worse time. More on that in a moment.

I thought you might like to know what Mark posted as an antidote:

“To suggest that recreational markets are a big plus in Kelowna is more than a little foolish. We have one ski hill that has just gone through foreclosure with no offers and another one that is unable to open and proceed with development plans plus a behemoth project on Kelowna’s south western corner of the lake that is rumoured to be in big trouble.

“The truth is plain and simple. The Bank of Canada is afraid of debt levels in Canada. Kelowna has seen more than its fair share of businesses close down this year, houses are not being listed because they are not getting the value the owners want (which is precisely the reason for the low inventory), the Canadian dollar is seriously weakened and oil is back to levels we have not seen for as many years as good real estate prices.

“Good economy? Skyrocketing? Think again.

“I think we should tread very carefully, I think we should write slightly more intellectual articles that dig in to the fundamentals that drive real estate markets and I think we should avoid the use of flagrant terms like “skyrocketing” because it sets us up for a fall. As REALTORS® we are meant to be professional mentors and guides to our clients not “cheerleaders” for a soft housing economy that has had a good year relative to the past few years.”

This is refreshing in light of the major developments now shaping the months to come. House prices, according to the latest Teranet-National Bank index, are falling for the first time in a year, down on a monthly basis in eight of 11 markets. The most stressed cities are Halifax, Quebec, Montreal and Winnipeg. As you know, detached homes are also declining in value In Regina, while in Winnipeg listings have exploded. Prices are now falling in Oakville, while sales are ebbing in Kingston and values in Victoria’s best hoods are back at 2008 levels.

This actually doesn’t mean a lot, since the real adjustments are yet to come. Now that the Bank of Canada has said housing may be overvalued by as much as 30%, we have a strong, credible voice (unlike the painful bleatings of a pathetic blog) warning the virgins from wandering over the cliff. Meanwhile the entire Canadian economy seems under assault. Oil is down to $57, and has been shedding about 3% a day. The Canadian dollar’s a disaster, at less than 86 and a half cents. And the resource-rich TSX has taken a drubbing. Alberta’s coffers will be $7 billion poorer as a result of this, and we’ve already started to see layoffs and downsizing in the vaunted oil patch.

Crude may hit bottom next week and bounce. Or not. But a quick return to seventy or eighty dollars is a stretch. The reason for the collapse – too much oil and waning demand – is not going away. The US will continue to pump it out in the name of energy self-sufficiency, OPEC will keep pumping to maintain market share, and demand will stay slack as the Chinese economy dips, Japan’s in recession and Europe fights deflation.

Eventually prices will restore, since the world runs on oil. Between now and then cheap energy will fuel America, which is why you should have exposure to it. But in terms of Canadian residential real estate, despite what Re/Max spews, there’s no good news. We are an over-extended, leveraged, delusional nation of people now at serious risk because we bought the hype of salesguys.

But brilliant salesguys. If they had ethics, they’d be perfect. Like Mark.

248 comments ↓

#1 r1200c on 12.12.14 at 6:35 pm

…and all the while Edmonton property taxes will rise by 5.7 per cent next year…

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/edmonton-property-taxes-to-rise-by-5-7-per-cent-1.2870396?cmp=rss

#2 What about CMHC? on 12.12.14 at 6:37 pm

CMHC tripling fees! Horses. Barn. Door.

#3 Corban on 12.12.14 at 6:37 pm

Oil below $60? I can probably afford to daily drive my v8 to work again!

#4 Andy on 12.12.14 at 6:39 pm

It’s like getting the wolf to guard the sheep with no one watching the wolf…

First?

#5 CPG on 12.12.14 at 6:40 pm

Total credit market debt in the United States is $57.98 trillion.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/accessible/l1.htm

Annual gross domestic product of the United States is $17.55 trillion.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDP

Chart of the total credit market debt in the United States versus its annual gross domestic product, over the last 40 years:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=Ukt

#6 Waterloo Resident on 12.12.14 at 6:40 pm

About a week ago I notified everyone that my timing system had given a sell signal and that I had sold all of UPRO at $133.15 and advised EVERYONE to start seriously thinking of selling ALL of their stock holdings pretty soon.

Well, UPRO is now down to 122.79 and there is no bottom yet in sight.

I was just about to say that to me it looks like the world is falling into recession but then I checked this recession indicator and NOPE, no recession.

http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/predict_recession.png

So don’t worry, we might get a severe economic slowdown but no actual recession.

#7 Whitey on 12.12.14 at 6:45 pm

I’m a homeowner and comfortable in my low cost house. It’s not the biggest or best, but we were never about keeping up with the Jones’. When The SHTF, we know of too many people who will struggle to make ends meet when they can’t sell again at a profit.

#8 bob on 12.12.14 at 6:49 pm

Hey,
Didn’t we agree that REALTORS® should be spelled like Realtards or something like that? How many people here now how to type the trademark r character?

#9 not 1st on 12.12.14 at 6:55 pm

Garth, the money is flowing back into the treasury market after this rout in the markets. There is no way in h*ll there is any kind of rate increase in either the US or Canada for at least 2 years.

And boomers selling their house to buy equity income for retirement? NEVER going to happen. This group may still be aggressive sellers but that cash isn’t going back into the markets I can tell you that. Bonds, GICs and HISAs will be the order of the day.

#10 Bobby on 12.12.14 at 6:57 pm

I always laugh when I hear of the supposed buoyant housing market in Kelowna. I receive regular updates about condos in Kelowna with many units falling in price or have been listed in excess of a year. No the market is not good in the least. I chose to rent as we can just walk away when school is over.
I can never figure out why people look to a Realtor for advice. If you don’t buy or sell, they don’t get paid. So, of course for them, it is always a great market and a good time to buy.
Where’s DA? Shifting?

#11 waiting on the westcoast on 12.12.14 at 7:06 pm

Great article showing how things are booming in Calgary… even though they touch on the slowing nature of price increases… can’t wait to read the followup article in the spring ;-) How they can do an article like this when the beating is beginning, I have no idea…

http://calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/calgary-house-prices-continue-to-climb-at-fastest-rate-in-canada

#12 waiting on the westcoast on 12.12.14 at 7:13 pm

I wonder if it might be a good time to buy a Tesla (in 6 months or so) if the price of oil stays low… Less demand for electric cars since the lifetime TCO will not be as good…

#13 waiting on the westcoast on 12.12.14 at 7:14 pm

Oh – I miss Victoria Real Estate Update! I know its you not me….

#14 omg on 12.12.14 at 7:15 pm

#1 r1200c
…and all the while Edmonton property taxes will rise by 5.7 per cent next year…
———————-

In Victoria we have been living with 6-7% annual increases in municipal taxes and fees for the past 8 years.

You have to watch how they move things around – the duplicitous “B”s will offload things out of taxes and into compulsory fees so they can claim they keep property tax rate increase to “only” 3-4%.

Oh well, we elect what we deserve.

#15 T.O. Bubble Boy on 12.12.14 at 7:16 pm

@ #2 What about CMHC? on 12.12.14 at 6:37 pm
CMHC tripling fees! Horses. Barn. Door.
—————————
You just made me spit out my drink in laughter… well done!

#16 Suede on 12.12.14 at 7:17 pm

Where did all the peak oil people go?

Btw. TSX-V is at the lowest it’s been in 15 years. But don’t catch a falling knife.

#17 Freedom First on 12.12.14 at 7:17 pm

Today’s pic really suits today’s Post. Canada is in for a rough ride now. Thanks Mike for sharing your story. Yet, unfortunately, as we have seen in the U.S. , the unethical self-interest groups all hid the cave-in of their economy and their RE markets until they could no longer hide the truth. And by that time millions of families were financially ruined. Tough way to get a financial education and a reality check on how the world really operates at the same time. Meanwhile, until the SHTF, all of the truth tellers were mocked and ridiculed. Sound familiar? And, most unfortunately, the people in Canada who are going to really suffer, are then going to look around and realize, “they’ve been had”. Thank you for your Blog Garth. It has helped keep me on a sound financial footing while people all around me were borrowing their brains out deluding themselves into thinking that they really did have money. For the calm, quiet, and unknown millionaire next door types, life will remain enjoyable, as they always knew better.

#18 stop lying on 12.12.14 at 7:20 pm

If housing does go down next year, it doesn’t look like it will be from interest rates:
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/12/12/oil-crash-is-not-the-biggest-story-in-global-markets-right-now/

#19 omg on 12.12.14 at 7:21 pm

KELOWNA WAS ALBERTA’S PLAYLAND

I have a colleague that has a construction company in Kelowna.

Last few years has been doing pretty much only high end renos for rich Albertans.

That stopped in 2013 and these days he has to send his crew as far as Salmon Arm (1 1/2 hrs) for jobs.

Shift happens ;)

#20 Arfmooocat on 12.12.14 at 7:26 pm

You sell any technical bounce in oil

We all know it can’t just go straight down so there will be your $3 or $4 bounce and you sell into that.

#21 Mark on 12.12.14 at 7:29 pm

“And boomers selling their house to buy equity income for retirement? NEVER going to happen. This group may still be aggressive sellers but that cash isn’t going back into the markets I can tell you that. Bonds, GICs and HISAs will be the order of the day.”

Good. Cheap equities, cheap corporate borrowing, and significant realized equity risk premia for those in the accumulation phase.

A “high” stock market (housing market, etc.) really is over-rated unless you’re a seller.

#22 Peter on 12.12.14 at 7:30 pm

Here is the thing that always amazes me about housing market commentaries, both by realtors and the MSM. Markets with ever increasing housing prices are inevitably described in terms such as “strong”, “sizzling” or “robust”, instead of in terms such as “unsustainable”, “deeply worrying”, “irrational” or even “suicidal”.

What other market for a commodity that we just sell to each other would be described in these terms? If food prices were increasing year after year, at a rate much greater than inflation, we would certainly not be describing it in these terms. In fact it would signal a dismal drop in the standard or living experienced by many Canadians, especially younger ones, which is exactly what crazily increasing house prices mean.

Ever increasing housing prices are not even good for realtors, so why they celebrate this (even when it is not true such as the Kelowna example), is just insane. What they should want is a housing market that is stable, sustainable and with lots of activity / turnover. One suspects that the only reason they like rising housing prices is that they can continue to scare potential buyers with the “buy now or buy never” line. How weak, and how very sad.

#23 Arfmooocat on 12.12.14 at 7:31 pm

The U.S. markets dropping 200 and 300 points a day this week is collateral damage to the collapse of oil

#24 Prairieboy43 on 12.12.14 at 7:31 pm

Is MSM and Remax that good at sales? Obviously they are. They could sell Ice to a Eskimo.
The Herd obviously has lost logical reasoning. Why???

#25 Alberta Ed on 12.12.14 at 7:32 pm

The Calgary Herald stopped being a real newspaper years ago. Mario’s just a shill.

#26 mitzerboy on 12.12.14 at 7:34 pm

poor old queen city ….

major condo project in the centre of town called capital pointe… 4 years delayed already

#27 Harbour on 12.12.14 at 7:41 pm

My sister sold her house and bought a condo, didn’t like it and bought a smaller house.

There’s 3 sales by one person in the last 6 months to add to the [email protected] propaganda.

#28 pravchaw on 12.12.14 at 7:42 pm

Maybe Melissa should move to Kelowna.
http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2014/12/11/stuck_on_the_sidelines.html

#29 dutch4505 on 12.12.14 at 7:42 pm

are the newspapers accepting the real estate dribble as news due to the big revenue advertising dollars the papers receive from realtors? next news item may be that vehicle sales will continue to be strong be the next few years.

#30 Spiltbongwater on 12.12.14 at 7:45 pm

3 years and hardly a showing? Perhaps price is too high. Perhaps it is a beater house that no one wants to see the inside of? With the lack of information given, this one anecdote does not give any indication of what the Kelowna real estate market is.

#31 calgaryPhantom on 12.12.14 at 7:49 pm

I want to add to my bond portion of portfolio. But don’t know, every time i try to click the button, there is this gut feeling. Telling me to wait until next year Fall. Till then stay in equities and cash ( and some prefs).

#32 Realties.ca » Market update on 12.12.14 at 7:51 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2014/12/12/market-update-9/ […]

#33 the Jaguar on 12.12.14 at 7:52 pm

What some blog dogs might not know is that the BC interior, Kelowna in particular, is the number one summer destination for Albertans. They own a lot of recreational property there and their hard earned oil dollars are spent there. Lots of people from Ft. Mac own and fly in and out as well as WestJet has direct flights to Kelowna’s new airport. Albertans also own a lot of property in the East Kootenay region as well. BC interior people don’t like the Albertans too much due to the their sudden influx in summer months with all their big shiny toys and Alberta attitudes. Of course the reverse is true and Albertans have their own views about the local work ethic and disregard for the law. (yeah I am talking about BC Bud).
The point is, if incomes are affected in Alberta there would be an impact felt in other locales, including Kelowna. Their real industry revolves around tourism.

By the way, what is the name of the behemoth project in trouble?

#34 rainclouds on 12.12.14 at 7:54 pm

Of course if this company http://www.zillow.com/ was allowed to exist in Canada (USA bashers take note)
Consumers would be able to see price reductions, sales prices, D.O.M. (pretty much all the info required to make an EDUCATED decision as opposed to relying on spurious “facts” as presented by a conflicted multi billion dollar industry which excels in obfuscation.

The blog isn’t pathetic but Government Oversight sure is.

#35 everythingisterrible on 12.12.14 at 7:57 pm

#12 Spiltbongwater
It was one anecdote among others mentioned in the original article. Check it out. http://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story–906-.htm

#36 james on 12.12.14 at 8:02 pm

Hilarious. If they were shilling stocks they would be in deep trouble. How can you justify the phrase “strong prairie resource market” in the face of a massive slump in oil prices? Is oil suddenly not a resource? Has beef shot up to make up the difference? Wheat?

#37 Roman on 12.12.14 at 8:04 pm

Realtarded Canadian Housing

#38 mark on 12.12.14 at 8:10 pm

Did LOL on the Calgary Herald’s homepage. There’s two stories virtually next to each other, one saying they expect a flurry of m&a in the o&g sector and the other one saying m&a will freeze.

#39 earthboundmisfit on 12.12.14 at 8:22 pm

Re/Max are the Investors Group of the real estate world. Thieves, bandits and charlatans. Run, don’t walk, when you see one coming. Slam the door in their faces. Protect your A$$ets. And as long as we’re telling lawyer jokes:
What’s the difference between a lawyer and a rooster?
A rooster goes to work and clucks defiance.

#40 Porsche on 12.12.14 at 8:22 pm

#20 Arfmooocat

I say a bounce in the New Year at $50 oil

#41 not 1st on 12.12.14 at 8:25 pm

#16 Suede on 12.12.14 at 7:17 pm

Btw. TSX-V is at the lowest it’s been in 15 years. But don’t catch a falling knife.

You do know that the venture exchange is basically a clearinghouse for fraud and scams right?

#42 not 1st on 12.12.14 at 8:28 pm

Cliff Shillington….as in “shilling” for the RE industry. Perfect name.

#43 Godth on 12.12.14 at 8:28 pm

#16 Suede

Post #120 explained it in real simple terms for you yesterday.

#44 For those about to flop... on 12.12.14 at 8:30 pm

OFF topic but ON fire!
Hi Garth and all,yes this even means Mark.

I have a suggestion to make this 99.9% perfect blog
The full100% it deserves.
Have you ever thought about making your responses in the comment section a different colour ie. blue ,green.
I realize you do it in a different font but it would make it easier to see who you chirp .
Does anyone else want to see this happen or am I just waisting the energy of my sausage fingers!

#45 Victor V on 12.12.14 at 8:34 pm

http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2014/12/11/stuck_on_the_sidelines.html

Melissa Hart didn’t have to hear it from the Bank of Canada. She knows first-hand that Toronto’s housing market is overvalued — maybe even as much as 30 per cent — just from scouring MLS listings every single day.

And she no longer expects that to change.

Toronto prices have been out of whack for at least five years now, figures Hart, 33. But they have hit almost irrational levels in the last three years as bidding wars have exacerbated an explosion in the cost of freehold houses within an easy commute of the core.

#46 Larry Laffer on 12.12.14 at 8:37 pm

Yeah, congratulations Kelowna. You’ve beatten your economy so bad your railroad line is being ripped-off, severing the link your industry would have needed to ship out its product. Once gone, neither will come back. But you’ll have nice bike path, with a lot of ice cream vending carts to cheer-up your depressed economy.

#47 espressobob on 12.12.14 at 8:39 pm

#20 Arfmooocat

You sell any technical bounce in oil.
…………………………………………………

Good luck timing a commodity.

#48 takla on 12.12.14 at 8:45 pm

U.S government narrowly avoids another Gov. shutdown yesterday,voteing for a further 1 .4 trillion to keep the doors open.Debt of over 18 trillion and counting.Our nabour is Bankrupt.
.Factor in Japan in major recession{for yrs}/European economies treading water and a faultering Russian economy due to U.S sanctions and were in on heck of a shit storm.
86.00 canuck buck will be adding to consumer goods inflation,then we have the oil price drop which will leatch off more Canadian jobs and assist this comeing housing correction..I mentioned cmhc in yesterdays blog weither they will stay solvent /have funding to cover a potencial Canadian mortgage insurance crash,and they come out today with great news their tripleing their fee’s,another nail in the realestate coffin.
Interesting times for sure

The US budget was never in doubt. That’s so 2011. — Garth

#49 Victor V on 12.12.14 at 8:47 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/12/12/cmhc-to-hike-issuer-fees-and-mortgage-rates-could-follow/

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is tripling the fee it charges some financial institutions to guarantee loans in the mortgage-backed securities market, a move that could end up costing consumers more, the Financial Post has learned.

The move appears to be aimed at the government’s stated goal of reducing its role in the mortgage insurance market but it just might have the added benefit of applying a bit more in the way of brakes to the housing market, which the Bank of Canada said this week might be as much 30% overvalued.

Rob McLister, the founder of http://www.ratespy.com, said there’s little doubt in his mind that the changes will end up costing new home buyers and estimates it will mean about $600 on a typical first-time buyers’ mortgage of $250,000.

#50 will on 12.12.14 at 8:52 pm

“Oil is down to $57, and has been shedding about 3% a day.”

yeah oil price getting a lot of coverage obviously. one number not so in your face is the price of the euphemistically named West Canada Select (our heavy oil). today’s quotation is $49.25. i don’t know if that’s CAD or USD. lots of those guys working up there in fort mac have been doing the right thing all along by sending all their earnings home (i.e. not buying RE in fort mac). better to rent and fly out every 3 weeks and let the owners take all the risk.

hoping for an update on RE numbers out of fort mac from you garth.

#51 Sideshow Rob on 12.12.14 at 8:54 pm

This just in:
Regional Executive Vice President of Re/Max Western Canada, Elton Ash to be featured in a reality show next season. Episode will feature Mr Ash getting tossed from a helicopter into downtown Kelowna. He will then have to fight his way to safety. Coming next summer in season 2 of “Dude you’re Screwed”

#52 Happy Renting on 12.12.14 at 8:55 pm

#28 pravchaw on 12.12.14 at 7:42 pm

I feel sorry for their kid. If it’s true nothing on the internet ever dies, someday he may see the article and learn that his parents spent every day obsessing about missing out on the real estate market, rather than being happy over him, their bundle of joy. I think it’s telling that they were financially over-stretched when they did own a house, but want to own another one, anyway.

#53 will on 12.12.14 at 8:56 pm

to #1 r1200c re: Edmonton taxes rising:

yeah a similar number for Saskatoon coming. i think the headline number was 5.4%.

#54 Andrew Woburn on 12.12.14 at 8:58 pm

#5 CPG on 12.12.14 at 6:40 pm
Total credit market debt in the United States is $57.98 trillion.
========================

Your last chart looks like the financial equivalent of Godzilla’s head coming out of the water. What’s even more scary is that the debts are real but the GDP isn’t.

“Since the mid-1990s, the shares of GDP accounted for by some imputations have increased as the activities measured have grown faster than other activities.

From 1996 to 2006, the share of GDP accounted for by the imputation for owner-occupied housing increased from 6.0 percent to 6.2 percent.

From 1996 to 2006, the share of employer contributions for private health and life insurance grew from 3.2 percent of GDP to 4.2 percent of GDP.

From 1996 to 2006, the share of all imputations in GDP grew from 13.8 percent to 14.8 percent.”

Presumably this is all before they factor blow and hookers into GDP.

See US Dept of Commerce
http://www.bea.gov/faq/?faq_id=488

#55 joblo on 12.12.14 at 8:58 pm

Met this dude in 2009.
Showed us a few properties and gotta say a real straight shooter, no bull and one of the only credible agents I’ve crossed paths with.
A rare breed.

#56 Ogopogo on 12.12.14 at 9:09 pm

Blesséd be thou, Garth! I was struck by the honesty and candour of Jennings-Bates when I read his piece this morning. I hope he’s reading this because I’d like to say that when/if I buy (read: “vultch”) he will be the first realtor on my list. A rare breed indeed!

Sadly, Castanet still refuses to publish comments on the original page for the “Real Estate market predictions” (http://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/128706/Real-Estate-market-predictions) I wrote a point-by-point, respectful riposte to the advertarticle, and I’m sure I’m not the only one. The collusion of media and RE in the Okanagan, as elsewhere, is simply disgusting.

#57 Timmy on 12.12.14 at 9:19 pm

The OPEC folks want to put a stop to the Yanks cranking out all of that oil and they will. Much of the fracking isn’t viable below 60 per barrel.

Many have been saying that housing is overvalued in Canada for the past 5 years, but nothing seems to bring it down.

#58 UBC Okanagan Alumni on 12.12.14 at 9:23 pm

I did my engineering degree in Kelowna. Engineering is a very “job ready” education path; 99% of my colleagues left Kelowna after graduation.

It wasn’t because of the low wages – people complain, but accept a bit of a wage hit to live there. The fact is, there is NO industry in that town – aside from service jobs.

The industrial base of the town revolves around catering to drunk albertans in the summer, drunk students in the winter.

As for real estate there – I’m surprised the bubble hasn’t popped, the town has been overbuilt since the 2006 construction boom.

#59 Drill Baby Drill on 12.12.14 at 9:25 pm

Great photo today Pathetic Blog. A good caption would read “So you don’t want to ship oil by pipeline eh?”

#60 will on 12.12.14 at 9:27 pm

i just checked that quotation on Western Canada Select. it’s in CAD. so that’s even worse.

#61 prairie person on 12.12.14 at 9:34 pm

Americans’ wealth shrinks as middle-class takes a hit from falling home prices

Americans are more likely to own a cat than an individual stock

From the Guardian.

#62 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 12.12.14 at 9:35 pm

The truth is both Cliff Shillington and Mark Jennings Bates are correct. I know both of them well enough and know this town (Kelowna) better than both.

This town (K-town, Kelowna) is – on – a tear. Mall parking lots are packed, huge waiting lists at most all restaurants, just try find an available tradesperson and if you do check out what they are charging! Traffic along Harvey Avenue is backed up solid from downtown to past orchard park on Friday afternoon this is new, it’s never been like that. There is building everywhere you turn.

Mark Jennings Bates house has been on the market for 3 years and there is a reason why – he want’s too much for it plain and simple. Location, location, location Mr. Bates. Nice house but soooo stuck in the ’80’s and oh so in a location that just isn’t on anyone’s radar. You, having been, a REALTOR ought to know this stuff? Are you still active? Spend less time behind the wheel of a rally car and more moving dirt and you’ll figure it out.

As for Mark’s take on tourism and ski hills in Kelowna; one of those he alludes to (but is careful not to mention any specific names) is Kelowna Mountain. Just google Mark Consiglio and you’ll see what a scam that one is. Every city as a Consiglio or two. Kelowna Mountain is a joke, it’s one of those take a piece of dirt and market it as something more than it will ever be to fools who are too easily parted from their money and then make off with the profits before the project is realized will never come to fruition.

As far as the ski hill in foreclosure?!?! Maybe Mount Baldy? (Mount Badly is far from Kelowna) But our real ski hill is Big White and I can confidently and authoritatively tell you there is no problem there what-so-ever, not even in the slightest, but for maybe a lack of early season snow. Cherry pick to support your case!?! You ought to be ashamed of your self Mr. Bates. Trying to be the voice of reason while giving cherry picked slanted examples to support your contention. That’s just plain B.S.

As for Cliff, he runs the leading real estate firm in Kelowna which just wrapping up a banner year. Of course he is optimistic and bullish on the market. His company sells more than a third of all the dirt in town and 50% of those transactions are in house.

Mr. Shillington’s job is quite different from that of Mr. Bates who in addition to driving rally cars considers himself a bit of a journalist – a bit. Bates sells editorials Cliff motivates his agents. Of course Bates is going to pick and lead with controversy while Shillington is going to ride the wave.

And that’s where we are at riding the wave. As I mentioned in a previous post things are cooking here right now. Across the country things are considered to be in pretty good shape. Oh sure the intellectuals will cry wolf and there may well be some reason to do so but do so with credible sources not cherry picked examples that best suit your agenda. Mr. Shillington can not be faulted for telling it like it is for that is the way it is. It is what Mr. Shillington is telling you. He is telling you the plain and simple unadulterated TRUTH. Mr. Jennings Bates is fabricating a story of, at best, half truths to back up his predictions.

And the winner is Cliff Shillington for telling it like it is and the loser is Mark Jenning Bates for telling us a fabricated story supported by half baked cherry picked irrelevant truths.

Now don’t get me wrong, if you read my post in response to yesterdays topic you will clearly understand that I do believe we are ramping up with too much enthusiasm such that we are likely nearer that tipping point than many of my esteemed colleagues are prepared to admit. It is ever thus that it is nearer than the bulls are prepared to admit and equally so as far away from where the bears doom forecast.

SHIFT happens… learn to ride the tide

#63 Paul on 12.12.14 at 9:38 pm

You just used my blog to post six links to your blog. Don’t do that again. — Garth
————————————————————-
Wow no delete, Well one of you has some class!

#64 Drill Baby Drill on 12.12.14 at 9:43 pm

Kelowna, Penticton, Osoyoos, Vernon,the entire Shuswap area and Invermere are going to be experiencing huge sales listings in Q3 2015 big time. A high percentage of the recreational (ie: second properties) are owned by Albertans. Many of whom purchased these places before having payed off their primary residence. I have several co-workers in this boat.

#65 Market Man on 12.12.14 at 9:44 pm

The Chmc change will have little effect in terms of overall costs however it indicate “fear” on their part.

It’s interesting to read many money managers down play the housing market and the effect of $60 oil on the overall economy.

We know most oil companies will be cutting 10-15% and banks have said that 20% of their revenue is from oil investment

The spike or pin will be from employment – I can’t see many people getting by on their EI cheque

#66 Canadian in Portland on 12.12.14 at 9:46 pm

Good to see Mark Jennings-Bates has changed his tune from when I lived in Kelowna back in 2008. He used to write articles for the online news, Castanet, encouraging borrowers to buy overpriced properties and take on more debt and second properties to help pay for the first….my how times change

#67 Habs76-79 on 12.12.14 at 9:53 pm

#3 Corbin.

Oil below $60? I can probably afford to daily drive my v8 to work again!

————————————-

It’s funny how people never seem to change. With bargain basement interest rates, instead of paying off debt and investing the savings (as Garth has said here all too may times) people just piled it up and seem to continue to do so.

Now the same with lower oil and subsequent gasoline prices. Instead of taking the savings from lower prices and using such for other and hopefully better things such as investing, maybe paying down debt too with it, people will go out and buy up more gas guzzlers.
FINE! it’s your own money (err: for most credit) so to speak. But in 2008 when oil dropped from $150 per barrel to less than $60 for about, what ? 1/2 year sales of big trucks and SUV’s skyrocketed. Then as oil climbed up over $100 per barrel these folks bitched about the price of gas at the pumps and for many subsidized the extra gas costs with their credit.

Humans never seem to change for the most part. IT’S JUST RINSE AND REPEAT!

But some of the 7 billion living on this little planet, DO GET IT! They make the best to balance income with work, with saving, with investing,with spending and using credit. These folks though also not perfect will be the one’s more better off.

The DEBT JUNKIES and those who spend money and use credit more stupidly will PAY BIG TIME!

#68 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 12.12.14 at 9:57 pm

And again let me warn you that there are emerging signs we are approaching a peak that will have surpassed equilibrium to such an extent that the market will be forced to claw back those unwarranted gains. My warning here will not amount to more than a spec in the universe on that matter. It will happen, the market will continue to gain momentum and prices will rise and would be buyers will panic thinking “if I don’t get in now I’ll never be a able to afford to” and they will get in now adding even more fuel to the unsustainable fire. It is ever thus.

Unfortunately you can not time the market. It will happen (recede) – eventually. I don’t think next year and maybe not even the year after that but it will happen. In the meantime expect this exuberant market to continue. You may not like it as it may not fit your agenda but get on board and accept that it is real and, apparently, it suits the agenda of the masses who really don’t give a shit about the future until they get there.

SHIFT happens… learn to ride the tide.

#69 Canadian in Portland on 12.12.14 at 9:59 pm

#63 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate

And wow, DA, what an embarrassing shift on your part from your earlier days of understanding and rational on the Kelowna forums? Who sold you the kool aid you drank? If you’re not just brainwashed,you should be ashamed. Of all of my friends and family back home with mortgages and real estate stories, none are positive. Kelowna real estate is miserable and has been for years. Get out of your castle in the cloud and look at the actual properties and sales. It’s not happening buddy.

#70 brad on 12.12.14 at 9:59 pm

Capitalism only functions when there is growth and expansion of consumerism with the right amount of inflation. It’s fundamentally a flawed system that must end as it’s not in harmony with the natural world. Let’s see how this plays out.

#71 Market Man on 12.12.14 at 10:02 pm

Let’s say over the next two years the 5 year rate went to 4% that would be an increase of about 50$ per hundred thousand
That’s a loss of 50k purchasing power per half a million dollars. = soft landing
People renewing mortgages always half the option of refinancing keeping carrying cost even

The question is what does 60 or 50$ oil mean for our economy – less jobs? Less profits?

#72 Obvious Truth on 12.12.14 at 10:03 pm

If the majority of people in general don’t get how money works we shouldn’t expect anything more from those in the RE or banking industry. They are just sales people. Is mind boggling to listen to so what can you do but laugh.

I’ve heard shoe salespeople utter the word investment when buying shoes.

Yesterday I just happened upon cp 24. Someone said about poloz that it was just one mans opinion about housing.

Everyone will believe they are doing the right thing to the bitter end. They have bet the farm. What else to do.

A simple long term chart will tell you where RE goes. A perfect storm should rates go up probably means overshoot to the downside. It’s not hard to figure out.

#73 armpit on 12.12.14 at 10:05 pm

Gasoline less than $1.00/litre. Everyone got a dollar/hr raise. Should be more.

#74 Cocoabean on 12.12.14 at 10:10 pm

“Cheap energy will fuel America”?

Sure, that’d be money going overseas to the Saudis, etc.

Or…all this wonderful shale oil – supposed to make the U.S. “energy self-sufficient”! – is uneconomic under about $80/bbl.

Not to mention the job losses – which you can be sure will be statistically massaged away by governments.

#75 Spectacle on 12.12.14 at 10:15 pm

Great synergy in blogging of late Mr Turner. Thnx.

Re: #46 Larry Laffer on 12.12.14 at 8:37 pm
Yeah, congratulations Kelowna. You’ve beatten your economy so bad your railroad line is being ripped-off, severing the link …………Once gone, neither will come back. But you’ll have nice bike path,…….

Some most enlightening reads on what’s going on:
Cut & Paste if link doesn’t load from this blog.

Bike Lanes — they are part of the ‘New World Order’ Agenda

http://www.dailykos.com/…/-OMG-Bike-Lanes-they-are-part-of-the-New-World-...

“Caption”
Soros-Sponsored ‘Agenda 21’ a Hidden Plan for World Government? … And it all started with that Bike Lane, and that High-speed Rail line …..

#76 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 12.12.14 at 10:18 pm

#70 Canadian in Portland on 12.12.14 at 9:59 pm

It is what is is my friend and that is the way I have always called it. I am not one to make predictions other than that SHIFT happens and that you can count on it but you can not time it with such accuracy as to successfully speculate on it.

You may recall me from a time when I knew the market was headed toward a dark place, and it did go there by the way. And then there are times when we are poised for growth, emerging from those low dark places just as we have seen happen these past six or so years.

That growth, the growth most everyone loves, is too often exuberantly embraced and enjoyed without regard to the future cost. We ALWAYS borrow against our future it seems and that loan is ALWAYS it seems called when we least expect it it seems.

I tell it like it is. I am in a vocation that, in order to be successful in the long run, requires I tell it like it is. If I predict my predictions could prove wrong and I loose credibility – and so I should, so I refrain. If I tell it like it is and let my principals make their own decisions based on the truthful facts I provide them then there is no wrong.

I have provided my clients with a good enough education in that regard that I can walk down the street without fear of running into a dissatisfied client.

It is too seldom that it is what we might like it to be. But it is what it is. If you can understand and accept that then you will find opportunity at most every turn.

SHIFT happens, learn to ride the tide.

#77 Mark on 12.12.14 at 10:19 pm

“People renewing mortgages always half the option of refinancing keeping carrying cost even”

No they won’t have such option. CMHC doesn’t allow amortizations on the loans that fall under their insurance to rise over and above the originally agreed upon amortization. And banks will be reluctant to allow any schemes which do not purport to rapidly cure negative equity.

As many posters here are pointing out, look for lending policy to tighten up substantially, both in terms, and risk premia.

#78 Spectacle on 12.12.14 at 10:31 pm

Try this link instead.

Really worth the investigation:

OMG! Bike Lanes — they are part of the ‘New World Order’ Agenda
http://www.dailykos.com/…/-OMG-Bike-Lanes-they-are-part-of-the-New-World-...

The web site article explores the situation of economic tragedy ( oil bust, real estate drop, causing further financial problems) and the agenda to round up the herd and remove our rights.

Regards all…..

#79 TurnerNation on 12.12.14 at 10:33 pm

Where’s DA? ;-)

#80 Suede on 12.12.14 at 10:34 pm

#41 Not 1st

You do know that the venture exchange is basically a clearinghouse for fraud and scams right?

——

I sure do. For the most part you’re correct.

But then again, there are frauds and scams in the house market, condo market, snake oil market, banks, clothing market, “certified” used car market, software market and heck even in the people market.

#81 bdy sktrn on 12.12.14 at 10:37 pm

so crude drops to 4x.00 , tight oil cuts back, wait 1-2 yrs, price goes back up, tight oil restarts production, retaking market share and we end up right back where we are now.

one factor that the saudis may be missing is that 2 years is more time to further bring down the cost of wringing out those tight barrels. when they come back on stream it will be at a lower production cost than now. of course there is a hard limit to savings but we arent there yet

#82 AK on 12.12.14 at 10:39 pm

“Oil is down to $57, and has been shedding about 3% a day. ”
====================================
Well, everybody and their uncle is now coming out of the woodwork and predicting that Oil will go down to $35.00. Guess what, when everybode says that, it’s not going to happen.
I wonder why nobody came out in September making any predictions of sorts. :-)

#83 Smoking Man on 12.12.14 at 10:39 pm

Damn, I hate it when enemies are down.
My arch rival, Gus the Greek from the bridal path, who I nearly punched out in a Jack induced fit for hitting on my son’s wife..

A night at Seneca, ground hog day again.. I’m not chirping God tonight.. Not that I beilive in that fantasy , but shit, every time I do, the son of a bitch kills some one I love… Damn you… SR.

Man, my buddy Ed, WHAT A STORY.

he went full blown beautiful mind… Lost millions in his delusions.. Fellow writers.

If you need book food, this is were it’s at.

#84 Canadian in Portland on 12.12.14 at 10:41 pm

#77 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate

Kelowna is not emerging, there are still not real jobs. The buyers up until now were albertan, and anyone with half a mind and a degree to prove it has left. Kelowna is going the same direction as Penticton and will go through the same 20 years of stagnation. The retired have bought and hunkered down, but what industry in town will pay the wages of the locals? real estate? give your head a shake. No one from Alberta will save the Okanagan this time.

Unless you find a way to start selling to the affluent asian market, Kelowna will erode. I love it there and I miss it, but I faced reality and the good fortune of NAFTA and bought a reasonable house from a good career I could never find in the valley. I am not alone, anyone with the wherewithal to leave has done so. I’m sorry you were left holding the bag, but you can blame a city smitten with real estate rather than commerce and industry. Please, you do a disservice by ignoring this. If Mark Jennings-Bates realised this of all people (he was the loudest mouthpiece for the high end real estate market and vacation homes in kelowna), you need to wake up also.

#85 Smoking Man on 12.12.14 at 10:43 pm

Gus lost this year, his brother, his daughter, his nephew, his mom..

How can I still hold contempt, a die you bastard sentiment. I gave him a heart felt fake huge..

He’s still an ass. But I showed fake respect, something I rarely do.

#86 a prairie dog on 12.12.14 at 10:43 pm

“According to Jennings-Bates, this is a crock. Of course, we all know Re/Max ‘reports’ are unadulterated hyperbole, but they still get reported as news.”

Strange how advertising dollars can make such whores of the old world printed media empires.

#87 Boombust on 12.12.14 at 10:50 pm

Duh. Price too high, Mark.

#88 Forzudo on 12.12.14 at 10:51 pm

The expected turnover of approximately 11% of CMHC’s workforce [215 layoffs, followed by new hires] might point to more risk management ahead: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/12/12/cmhc-layoffs-job-cuts_n_6314854.html

#89 Mark on 12.12.14 at 11:15 pm

“so crude drops to 4x.00 , tight oil cuts back, wait 1-2 yrs, price goes back up, tight oil restarts production,”

You think lenders who are about to be scorched on defaulting “tight oil”/shale debt, will just leap back into the marketplace to lend to such projects?

I doubt it. And if there is a comeback, the principals will have to put up a *lot* more equity, thus increasing the hurdle rate for new projects considerably.

The economics of shale just don’t work unless the oil prices are sustainably high for an extended period, and capital is available on reasonable terms. It will take a while to cure these issues. One thing I am certain of, it won’t be the O&G sector leading us out of this most recent economic downturn.

#90 moneymike on 12.12.14 at 11:16 pm

Mark’s haters are a bunch of trolls

#91 Smoking Man on 12.12.14 at 11:18 pm

Observations from slot machine 1588.
My view to the stage, obstructed, Pitty, the singer on stage has a really short skirt..

Humans, getting hammered, embellishing a win, or knumbing a loss.

Me, my eyes a lazer focused on the ass of a chic that’s a clone of Claire Tory.

Who is she….. Wordless death cry in one take in dark side of the moon. The song that made that album…

She’s fat now, Old.

And we all praise the Lord for doing this to us…

I can understand why the coward is frightened to face me down….

Take the kids, ass hole…

Your Kingdom is mine.. Enjoy the few years you have left..

I’m a Nictonite….

#92 Drill Baby Drill on 12.12.14 at 11:19 pm

#84 AK
Oil is racing to $30 – $40/bbl range this is because there is currently no OPEC. OPEC became disbanded as of the Nov. 28th meeting. Only Saudi is running the ship. An organization of one is not an organization. Oil will stabilize around $50/bbl in the near term and will drop again Q1 2015. When the USA finally demobilizes and shuts down many Bakken and Eagleford shale oil production areas then the Saudis will want to revive OPEC again. It will be a one to two year rebuild in pricing after that point. If there is a wreck in the middle east (Russia backed terrorist bomb or 2 ) in the mean time then all bets are off.

#93 economictsunami on 12.12.14 at 11:31 pm

Oil has turned out to be the perfect foil to take some humpff out of the handi work from multiple CBs market interventionist, pumping asset bubbles that have been distorted for years.

Their private sector mouthpiece Goldman Sachs, trumpeted to the world that the ‘sketchy’ commodity super cycle had come to an end. Code, for “don’t be too long the wrong side of the bet.”

Both Stock, High Yield Credit and sovereign bond markets got soused on an over abundance of liquidity; whereby bad economic news meant ‘good news’ hopium for additional stimulus .

Treasuries became muted but are now back on track to better foretell the likelihood of future core inflation pressures; or total lack of them.

The Oil Crash Is Not The Biggest Story In The Global Markets Right Now

http://www.businessinsider.com/treasury-bond-rally-december-11-2014-12#ixzz3LkAlRbDS

Don’t be buffaloed about future rate hikes, especially now that oil’s plunge has also provided cover to both the Fed and BOC to stand pat on rates for the foreseeable future…

#94 Smoking Man on 12.12.14 at 11:33 pm

DELETED

#95 Ex-Cowtown on 12.12.14 at 11:33 pm

BC would be a great province if only it was run by Albertans.

#96 Hamish42 on 12.12.14 at 11:35 pm

Just reading the globe and mail real estate section. All 7 properties in their done deals section sold for under asking. One was on the market for half a year then re listed and sold, 2 took over 70 days to sell. Assuming these are the best examples they could find, does not look like a hot market anymore in Toronto.

#97 Smoking Man on 12.12.14 at 11:41 pm

DELETED

#98 Smoking Man on 12.12.14 at 11:52 pm

Deleted, bastard. It took all my self control to sanitize what I realy wanted to say. garth, some times your a beauty. Other times, an ass..

Please some day share with me want the hell I said..

Like is this a thing, growled hog day.. Only, fk forgot what I was going to say.

#99 Smoking Man on 12.12.14 at 11:57 pm

DELETED

#100 AB Boxster on 12.12.14 at 11:59 pm

NP article on effect of foreign money on Vancouver.
http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/12/12/vancouver-being-transformed-by-new-wave-of-brash-rich-asians-looking-for-safe-place-to-park-their-cash/

Article comments include:
” At the University of British Columbia, the province’s largest post-secondary institution, students worry about precious resources being directed to a new college under construction on their campus. Vantage College is meant for the exclusive use of 1,000 international students who can afford its $50,000 annual tuition and accommodation fees.”

So we have a major city in Canada that middle class Canadians cannot afford to buy property in, and now we are building schools that middle class Canadians cannot afford to attend.

What a pathetic nation we have become.

#101 Ford Prefect on 12.13.14 at 12:02 am

“The reason for the collapse – too much oil and waning demand – is not going away. The US will continue to pump it out in the name of energy self-sufficiency…”

and #75:Cocoabean:
Or…all this wonderful shale oil – supposed to make the U.S. “energy self-sufficient”! – is uneconomic under about $80/bbl.

——————————————————-

Garth, your statement really does not make sense. What company would continue to pump oil at a loss? unless you are referring to conventional production only. Otherwise any company would simply import cheaper crude from overseas.

The only way for the US to continue to pump fracked oil would be for the government to subsidize production.

#102 Dodged billet on 12.13.14 at 12:02 am

I’m getting old waiting.

We now have 4 cocks in the coop, one has to go – late in the year a late hatching of 4 eggs happened. 1 hatchling didn’t make it… Result was 2 males, 1 hen. We already had 2 males to manage the clucking ladies. I had put a light up on a timer to increase egg output, it’s had an interesting side effect, randy cocks. Now we have to manage them, they are all totally strung out.

7 eggs in the basket today though.

Order will be restored, asking around for a couple of homes, maybe our freezer.

#103 Arfmooocat on 12.13.14 at 12:07 am

You think lenders who are about to be scorched on defaulting “tight oil”/shale debt, will just leap back into the marketplace to lend to such projects?

There won’t be any defaulting but there will be cut backs to save capital

#104 Rainmaker on 12.13.14 at 12:16 am

Here’s a pretty solid article that explains why the price of oil will likely be much higher in 6 months to a year.

http://dailyreckoning.com/six-months-now-rolling-money-oil-gains/

#105 Smoking Man on 12.13.14 at 12:30 am

DELETED

#106 Vanecdotal on 12.13.14 at 12:32 am

#34 rainclouds

+1

As our gracious host is fond of pointing out, the RE industry should be regulated the same as the financial services industry. Lemmings are being led of a cliff with the blessings of our blind-eyed elected leaders. Zillow is a valuable tool, one that all Canadians should have access to, however until the pitchforks are sharpened the RE lobby will do everything possible to keep it out of Canada. Once the correction takes hold, I think in order to save some face whoever forms the next government may have no choice but to bow to public pressure and allow public access to clear, unadulterated RE data, and bring in some stricter regulatory oversight. One can only hope.

Meanwhile, a few observations from the once hot-HAM-pocket of sleepy White Rock. It’s the dead of winter and while some luxury homes have de-listed again, presumably to come back on the spring market at a higher price (again), in the past few weeks more luxury sfh’s (multi-million $) in the spendiest parts of WR & Crescent Beach area have shiny new FOR SALE shingles out front. Also noticing a lot of boomer-esque, dated but immaculate family-type homes coming (or staying) on the market lately as well. These are also listing at well over a million $, and would actually be considered tear-downs in today’s market, as average local incomes can’t afford to move up to even these homes as-is. What a lot of these down-sizers don’t realize yet, is the value of their family home is essentially the lot value developers/flippers are willing to pay. How many SOLD signs noted on dozens and dozens of luxury sfh listings in White Rock proper? 2. Yes, t-w-o. That’s over the course of many weeks, if not months that I’ve been paying particular attention. Additionally most if not all, of the post-flip luxury homes I’ve mentioned before still sit empty. Very zombie neighbourhood-y in good ol’ White Rock these days… not too many Christmas lights up, lots of mostly darkened homes on security light-timers. Coincidentally, many of these ones are currently for sale, as they were not built with “local” incomes in mind.

I think there is a sense that foreign money is drying up amongst many of the locals, and boomers looking to downsize are starting to list in larger numbers hoping to catch the last wave (IF there is one). We may see record high numbers of new listings this Spring market, competing with the stubborn ping-pong pricing re-lists that have been persisting unsold for years now in some cases. Judging by the number or really pricy high-end properties coming to market and/or remaining largely unsold (even after multiple price reductions in some cases) year-over-year, I wonder that this may in fact be true. It certainly appears so.

How does this relate to Vancouver? I think it may be a canary in the HAM coalmine. Having lived many years in West Side Van, there are a lot of similarities in how foreign RE speculation has played out in both White Rock / Crescent Beach area, and the West Side, and the subsequent effects on the communities are remarkably similar as well. I believe what’s happening in White Rock now may be an accurate outlier for both the West Side and West Van. If the last Fools in to the luxury market out here can’t find any Greater Fools to sell to at current prices, they’re also going to have trouble finding them at an even higher price point in Van… eventually.

#107 mark on 12.13.14 at 12:37 am

It will be interesting to see how quickly the price turns. The bakken has already come off the boil and rigs are permits are down going forward. Some of those previous growth projects that were going to create a glut look dicey.

http://peakoilbarrel.com/bakken-north-dakota-production-report

#108 ExpatDan on 12.13.14 at 12:43 am

Canada needs to open up all the historical and recent sales information the way it is in US on Zillow. This will help people make informed decisions and not be misled by realtors. Wasn’t the competition bureau going to look at this soon in Ontario?

#109 TRT on 12.13.14 at 12:56 am

“No coming correction in Vancouver or Toronto SFD.”

December 12, 2014

TRT

Watch and see. Visit some other uncensored blogs to see why.

#110 Avoid ETF's in Canada on 12.13.14 at 1:06 am

Propaganda alert!

Remember, Deflation only sucks for Bankers. Its good for the common folk not in debt.

Is this the message here?

#111 chapter 9 on 12.13.14 at 1:21 am

Saudi Arabia and their Sunni allies have had a plan in place to boost oil production since the middle of 2012. Their two most dangerous enemies are Iran and Iraq-both Shia. The Saudi ruling council has been waiting for the right moment to strike with the ultimate goal to implode their economies. Sanctions placed on Iran has been a bonus. The royal families of Kuwait and United Arab Emirates are backing them on this move. The increased oil production in the US because of fracking has been a “fly in the ointment” as well. The figure that was set was $60 a barrel which has been surpassed and Iran is squirming.
#94 Drill Baby Drill called it at $30-$40 a barrel. The Saudi’s are not giving up market share or the geo-political threats to their oil kingdom.

#112 CPG on 12.13.14 at 1:58 am

To summarize, six-years of unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus has ensured that everyone is today fully dressed up, liquored up, and silly eager for The Big Party. “Anybody seen the punchbowl?” “Where is it, and I mean now!” “Oh crap, where on earth did it go!!” “Who took it away!!” “I’m telling you to bring it back right now or there’s going to be some serious trouble!!!” What a fiasco.

http://www.prudentbear.com/2014/12/the-collapsing-periphery.html#more

#113 José on 12.13.14 at 2:01 am

What do you think the CEO’s of 3 huge oil companies know that the MSM isn’t reporting? Record prices paid for oil exploration rights off of Newfoundland! In deep water!

Hmmmm…

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/record-bid-for-newfoundland-oil-exploration-rights-1.2871463

#114 NoName on 12.13.14 at 2:36 am

#72 Market Man

Let’s say over the next two years the 5 year rate went to 4% that would be an increase of about 50$ per hundred thousand
That’s a loss of 50k purchasing power per half a million dollars. = soft landing
People renewing mortgages always half the option of refinancing keeping carrying cost even

Before i comment on your coment i have to admit that i was always math challenged, geometry was easy parallel this, right angle there, going off on tangent, easy. But algebra, and english…
So, you are saying 50$ a month per 100k outstanding not that of the big of the deal, i agree with you 100%, 12.5$ a week, 1.79$ a day. My older child spends more than that on a fiction books every month… so in my estimations her 50$ worth of paper cover fiction books will cost me around 15k in lost opportunities @3%25y GIC. sometimes i sit in a dark and wonder how much it would cost me if she spend 4x as much. Market Man plz help me/

100k outstanding
http://tinypic.com/r/14ncs2c/8
250k outstanding
http://tinypic.com/r/2mgttgo/8
450k outstanding
http://tinypic.com/r/2qu4qok/8

#115 Lillooet, BC on 12.13.14 at 2:53 am

Yes, welcome to the Okanagan, where a recreational property consisting of a small off-grid, rodent-infested cabin on a 1/2 acre piece of leased crown land with no services will cost $200k or more, plus $4k-$5k for annual leasing fees, plus land tax plus maintenance. All for the privilege of heating water on a woodstove or running a gas generator, spending $10k on a wonky water system. But hey, it’s beautiful BC.

#116 Millmech on 12.13.14 at 3:05 am

Aka devils advocate,starting to see houses for under $200,000 now,close to 50% price drop,been looking for over a year and have now saved about $150,000 by not purchasing and renting.Why buy and get SHIFTkicked when the prices in the valley keep dropping.I have yet to see any price increase only increase is the sounds of crickets.I will keep waiting as I believe I will be able to purchase the home I want for under $150,000 that was originally bought for $400,000+ seven years ago.

#117 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 12.13.14 at 3:29 am

#86 Canadian in Portland on 12.12.14 at 10:41 pm

I’m sorry I am completely missing your point… that or you mine. But… what I will say is…

1. with the hospital expansion that serves a far greater geographical area than ever before and the hundreds of jobs that came with that expansion Kelowna has enjoyed the addition of huge number of much needed well paying jobs. We have been making huge strides forward on that admitted much lacking in the past of career opportunities. As with so many things it starts out slow as the foundations are laid upon which the future growth is built. Sorry you aren’t here to see that and can only remember the before.

2. Ditto too with the University.

3. Ditto with Kelowna Flightcraft and the rest of the aviation industry.

4. Ditto with the huge numbers of relatively obscure residents, both part and full time, who have chosen this city as their preferred place to enjoy the fruits of their labour thus infusing huge initial economic stimulus that multiplies throughout our economy from there.

4. Asians immigrants??? Vancouver type HAM??? We’re not there yet… not even close.

5. Going the same direction as Penticton? Seriously? What does that even mean? The ‘Tic’ is so far behind Kelowna it is probably enjoying a resurgence of interest by those who long for a more slow paced sleepy town like KELOWNA USED TO BE.

Yes I, and many others, think Kelowna is pretty AWESOME. Sorry you were so disenfranchised you felt need to leave before it was able to provide that which you sought. Like so many clearly you were too impatient to give the relationship a chance to grow choosing to move on instead to something you thought would provide a more instant gratification to you. Hope that worked out for you. For the rest of us here… for the most part we’re willing to collaborate toward making this community all that it can, is and will be. I think the majority of us are quite content with how that is working out for us. We know we’ve got room for improvement. But the, really, doesn’t everyone?

#118 Ronaldo on 12.13.14 at 4:15 am

#97 Ex-Cowtown on 12.12.14 at 11:33 pm

”BC would be a great province if only it was run by Albertans.”

Like Allison for example? We couldn’t afford it.

#119 Ronaldo on 12.13.14 at 4:31 am

#58 Timmy –

”The OPEC folks want to put a stop to the Yanks cranking out all of that oil and they will. Much of the fracking isn’t viable below 60 per barrel.”

Hardly likely since these folks take their orders from the Yanks. You don’t really think that this is really what it’s all about do you?

#120 Frodo the Blind on 12.13.14 at 8:23 am

Some bright spots in the down market…..Tims hit $100 on Friday. CVE confirms dividends and cap ex spending. TLM is being acquired at a big premium. OPEC has the knives out for Saudi. Freakin’ big sale on stocks generally . Life goes on.

#121 Steve French on 12.13.14 at 8:55 am

nothing gold can stay, smokey.

stay gold pony boy !!!

#122 David McDonald on 12.13.14 at 8:58 am

I am surprised by the sell off in the market. Lower oil prices should be a boon to many segments of the economy. I don’t own oil stocks and am mostly US oriented so I should see a boost but not so far (except for currency exchange).

I cling to Garth’s mantra that the USA is improving so I will just collect dividends and wait for logic to prevail.

The RE market for condos in Ottawa seems very soft (based on no hard facts). I have friends whose deposit on a new condo has been on hold for years. I must admit I am a greater fool having bought at the top but at least my wife is happy.

#123 BillyBob on 12.13.14 at 9:22 am

Hmmm.

Well, I have many colleagues that were previously employed at Kelowna Flightcraft, now laid off since KF lost the Purolator courier freight contract (to CargoJet, in Ontario). So I’ve watched as B727 captains have had to take positions as Dash 8 First Officers with Encore (the WestJet low-cost carrier). Starting pay around 30k.

If that’s DA’s idea of positive economic news for Kelowna, then it really is just spin. It’s true, KF did land a contract for overnight freight within BC. Sort of like losing an NHL team but saying you’ve replaced it with a peewee rep team.

The Purolator contract was estimated to be worth a billion dollars over seven years. So much for career opportunities.

#124 rk usa on 12.13.14 at 9:56 am

re: #87 Smoking Man

see a shrink you have got problems

#125 rk usa on 12.13.14 at 9:59 am

re: #93 Smoking Man on 12.12.14 at 11:18 pm

again, seems you need attention

is there a doctor in the house?

#126 Bytor The Snow Dog on 12.13.14 at 10:04 am

DA @ 118- Does that sales pitch come with a glossy 8.5 x 11 brochure?

Sheesh…

#127 miketheengineer on 12.13.14 at 10:41 am

Garth et al:

Oil Prices….did some research of news articles, web sites etc….what I got from it:

Price dip in oil will be “temporary”, maybe lasting a quarter. So enjoy it while you can. No need to freak out if you live in Alberta. What one expert said, “don’t bet against oil”

Also, there has been “no news” of mass layoffs…and in today’s age and mentality, if there was any “risk”, those companies, will act, will be quick and without mercy.

Sorry, I didn’t keep the links.

(a) Nobody knows hos long prices will remain depressed, nor do we know what oil will ‘settle’ at. It is likely below the $90 the Alberta government budgeted for. (b) Layoffs, mass or otherwise, happen months after pricing events when decision-makers have more clarity. Maybe you should stop Googling. — Garth

#128 james on 12.13.14 at 10:50 am

Stephen Harper CARES about Canadian jobs, you idiots just don’t GET IT!!

The problem is there are NO Cdns looking for work, so he has to allow Microsoft to evade all the tfw restrictions.

http://www.cbc.ca/m/touch/news/story/1.2870289

Stephen is a SMART man. He KNOWS that all these workers will soon buy cottages in the Okanagan.

TWO PROBLEMS SOLVED!!

Take that you leftards!!

#129 saskatoon on 12.13.14 at 11:24 am

#71 brad

dude…sorry to break this to you…but this ain’t capitalism.

#130 the Jaguar on 12.13.14 at 11:33 am

Garth, good article about Vancouver real estate and HAM’s possible involvement in price increases in the National Post this morning. …Billy Bob sounds like an Albertan.

#131 Roman on 12.13.14 at 11:38 am

YTD

TD: 0 %
RBC: – 5 %
BMO: +1% (wow, great performance)

Add dividends. — Garth

#132 Rexx Rock on 12.13.14 at 11:39 am

2015 looks like 1982 for Vancouver Island residents.Its sad for working families struggling now and yet to see the calamity that is coming.

#133 Sinful Man on 12.13.14 at 11:47 am

#93 Smoking Man Imagine the lucridity of a BOOF (burned out old fkr) standing on his skinny trembling legs, beaking off and howling in pain at the Creator of the universe. The bible warns in Psalm 119:21, “You rebuke the insolent, accursed ones who wander from your commandments …” Therefore repent you fool, you are being rebuked.

#134 Funny that on 12.13.14 at 12:17 pm

The cure for low oil prices is low oil prices.

#135 westcoaster on 12.13.14 at 12:22 pm

Victoria? Trouble? Iconic status building worth less than owes (hmmm, sounds familiar from south of the 49th)
http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/oak-bay-beach-hotel-owes-more-than-it-s-worth-creditors-named-1.1663567

#136 Gregor Samsa on 12.13.14 at 12:25 pm

#130 miketheengineer

While the oil companies might be correct, you have to keep in mind that this is literally the only thing they can say at the moment. They are not going to come out and say “we think oil will be low for a long time, which pretty much makes us toast, please sell / short our stock and stop buying our products.” So to say anything other than “all is well” would be financial suicide.

What I find most funny is that the pervasive belief in the oil patch is that this all due to Saudi Arabia and market manipulation, most people thinking it’s a way to “get” at our enemies such as Russia and Iran (it’s also funny how these people so readily pick up on a such a conspiracy theory, when they would normally spurn such thought).

But if the oil drop is temporary for a couple months, it won’t really “get” Russia and Iran, any more than it will “get” ourselves. So what’s the point? It doesn’t add up.

I think people like to hold onto the Saudi Arabia angle because the alternative, that oil demand has cratered and that there is an over supply of production, is too scary to contemplate.

Also, check out this chart:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/11/US%20vs%20Saudi.jpg

#137 CalgaryRocks on 12.13.14 at 12:39 pm

#131 james on 12.13.14 at 10:50 am
Stephen Harper CARES about Canadian jobs, you idiots just don’t GET IT!!

The problem is there are NO Cdns looking for work, so he has to allow Microsoft to evade all the tfw restrictions.

http://www.cbc.ca/m/touch/news/story/1.2870289

Stephen is a SMART man. He KNOWS that all these workers will soon buy cottages in the Okanagan.

TWO PROBLEMS SOLVED!!

Take that you leftards!!

You forgot to mention that the feds agreed to it only because the province, in this case BC, a bastion of libtards, as you call them, has not only asked for it but also approved it.

I agree that it sucks Microsoft will be training foreign workers rather than young Canadians in BC

BC probably doesn’t have that many smart people to train since the smart ones move out to work in the US or in parts of Canada where the jobs don’t all pay minimum wage.

#138 Ogopogo on 12.13.14 at 12:44 pm

#119 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 12.13.14 at 3:29 am
#86 Canadian in Portland on 12.12.14 at 10:41 pm

I’m sorry I am completely missing your point… that or you mine. But… what I will say is…

1. with the hospital expansion that serves a far greater geographical area than ever before and the hundreds of jobs that came with that expansion Kelowna has enjoyed the addition of huge number of much needed well paying jobs. We have been making huge strides forward on that admitted much lacking in the past of career opportunities. …

3. Ditto with Kelowna Flightcraft and the rest of the aviation industry.

Ironic, isn’t it, that this ridiculous piece of false propaganda comes just two days after this headline:

http://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/128674/Layoff-notices-at-Flightcraft

You and your hero Shillington deserve each other. Shameless. Shifty. Shills.

#139 Mark on 12.13.14 at 1:06 pm

“There won’t be any defaulting but there will be cut backs to save capital”

Unless there’s a miracle turnaround in oil prices over the next 6 months, defaults for the shale O&G firms are quite likely:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-12/550-billion-mania-ends-badly-energy-companies-are-shut-out-credit-market

Shale wells, once drilled and fracked, have very little in terms of discretionary expenses. The wells either produce the cashflow at the prevailing price of oil, or they don’t. At least with the more ongoing labour-intensive oilsands, the workers can be replaced and/or forced to take lower compensation.

#140 KELOWNA? on 12.13.14 at 1:08 pm

DA,

Thank you for your comments. I live in Vancouver and go to Kelowna in the summer.

Can you share with us how SFH and Condo’s have done since the peak? I believe it was in 2007.

I know someone who bought a very nice high floor, lake facing unit from the developer in Waterscapes for $650K completed in 2008 or 2009? Its apprised for $550K today and I understand he might have trouble getting that even?

#141 Noneofit on 12.13.14 at 1:09 pm

For those interested in the Kelowna project including retail and condo here it is.The Sopa Square development in the South Pandosy area of Kelowna is in receivership since Jan 14.
Bid requests for entire project posted by receiver this past week. See Globe and mail business section.
Hey but Remax says all is on the upward swing and the restaurants are full.

#142 KELOWNA? on 12.13.14 at 1:09 pm

#134
YTD

“TD: 0 %
RBC: – 5 %
BMO: +1% (wow, great performance)”

Go back and do the same numbers for the last 3, 5, and 10 years add in dividends and then come back.

#143 Linda on 12.13.14 at 1:15 pm

Attended a Christmas party held by one of the O&G producers last night – 3rd time I’ve attended one of these. Soon as I walked in I could see the austerity compared to previous years. Attendance was perhaps 25% of the entire workforce (presuming that each employee brought a significant other as a date). My husband counted tables, figured if all tables were filled (they weren’t) attendance would be 516 people. Best estimate was maybe 475 attendees, at least half of whom were SO. Top man gave a speech which was notable for the passing reference to his own continuing employment being questionable – I think he meant to joke but it didn’t come across that way. He did acknowledge that 2015 would be a ‘challenging’ year at best. General talk is that this downturn will last at least two full years before recovery so the mood was less than upbeat. Other talk was about takeover – speculation the company will be a target if oil prices hit enough of a sweet spot to make takeover a profitable venture for someone with the cash to purchase.

#144 Panhead on 12.13.14 at 1:24 pm

#120 Ronaldo on 12.13.14 at 4:15 am

”BC would be a great province if only it was run by Albertans.”

Like Allison for example? We couldn’t afford it.

Don’t think we can afford Christie either …

#145 smokingboy on 12.13.14 at 1:42 pm

God get your own blog to troll on smoking boy. Didn’t your mother tell you that all attention isn’t created equal?

I habitually skip over all long posts, but you made a short one today where you whine about being deleted, and right after that one, are deleted again. I lol’ed. Some people are so desperate for attention, what drives that? A need to feel important? Vanity is the death of reason.

#146 Winterpegger on 12.13.14 at 1:55 pm

#134

YTD
TD +3.7%
RY +8.4%
BMO +10.28%

what charts are you looking at?

#147 Timing is Everything on 12.13.14 at 2:00 pm

#141 Ogopogo

Well let’s forget about DA and put the ‘layoff’ story in perspective. Let’s read beyond the ‘headlines’…

“…125 layoff notices to the company’s pilots just before Christmas and on the heels of an announcement about a valuable contract with WestJet is bad timing.”

“Most of the pilots work out of the company’s Hamilton facility. Only six fly out of the Kelowna Airport.”

“…they will actually keep a half or two-thirds of the jobs [lay-offs announced] by the time spring rolls.”

“The company will need to hire 30 aircraft maintenance engineers for the WestJet contract to upgrade the interiors of its jets announced earlier this week.”

http://tinyurl.com/m9rv6y6
http://tinyurl.com/pu4xfdf

#148 Ontario's Left Coast on 12.13.14 at 2:03 pm

To all who would use the term Realtards: Would you please stop using a hurtful word that trades on the misfortune of those born with a not-so funny intellectual disability? You are impressing no one.

#149 Russ L on 12.13.14 at 2:07 pm

It really is different in Nanaimo.

http://www.nanaimodailynews.com/news/nanaimo-region/nanaimo-home-construction-up-by-a-third-in-2014-1.1493942

Of course we could draw the correlation that things are (will be) going up because of all those people beyond Hope who want to immigrate to here.

http://www.nanaimodailynews.com/news/nanaimo-region/air-canada-starts-flights-to-calgary-1.1660719

#150 juno on 12.13.14 at 2:08 pm

#49 Victor V on 12.12.14 at 8:47 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/12/12/cmhc-to-hike-issuer-fees-and-mortgage-rates-could-follow/

==============

Remember Pulp Fiction : “The spiders caught a fly”

When CMHC has caught a virgin

Whats next Yep some heavy S&M

Can those CMHC virgins feel the pain now!!!

Global News – is the enticer, glamouring home ownership
BANK – is the spider who entices the new virgins with no credit checks and cash back teaser loans
CREA – Crea is the puppet master. Orchastrating franken numbers
CMHC is now the sadist
Government is the spectator

#151 Mike T. on 12.13.14 at 2:33 pm

‘BC would be a great province if only it was run by Albertans.’

I’m not sure where he is from but my feeling is that Gwyn Morgan is more the BC premiere than Christy Clark ever will be….so there’s that.

#152 Italians love real estate on 12.13.14 at 2:52 pm

I see everyone still waiting for the RE correction on this blog. All while a correction the equity markets is well underway and accelerating.

Well, maybe 2015 is the the year you can buy a house in the GTA for a few percentage points less. Maybe.

#153 kommykim on 12.13.14 at 3:15 pm

RE: #145 KELOWNA? on 12.13.14 at 1:09 pm
#134
YTD
“TD: 0 %
RBC: – 5 %
BMO: +1% (wow, great performance)”
Go back and do the same numbers for the last 3, 5, and 10 years add in dividends and then come back.

He should also get the ticker right for the Royal Bank AND he should be quoting them on the TSE and not the NYSE since they are mainly Canadian companies. Yea, they do operate internationally too, but their main business is in Canada.
Details.

#154 Snowboid on 12.13.14 at 3:17 pm

#70 Canadian in Portland on 12.12.14 at 9:59 pm…

What’s sad about the self-professed golden god of Kelowna real estate is that he may actually believe what he wrote in the post you responded to. He claims to know Kelowna better than the other two in the article, but anyone who ‘really’ knew Kelowna would realize:

Kelowna isn’t on a ‘tear’, it’s been in decline for a few years now. Tourism and real estate can’t support a town of Kelownas’ size.

The only mall that is always packed is Orchard Park, it filled up in 1973 and didn’t look back. Too many stores for the parking, and a market that includes folks from as far north as Sicamous and in the south Oliver/Osoyoos.

There are only a couple of restaurants that have lines (e.g. Raudz) the rest have crickets most of the year except for a couple of weeks in the summer.

Looking for tradespeople? I know several that are looking for work, and have been supplementing their few trades jobs with part-time burger-flipping. They would be happy to get work sent their way, I wonder if the GG will allow me to send them his email and phone number?

Traffic along Harvey has been a major problem for at least 30 years, the new bridge didn’t alleviate it. That’s the problem with having the highway go through your town without a bypass.

Building everywhere you turn? According to my sources in the building supply industry (close relatives) it has been a sad year for supplying new builds.

Mark J-B is a well-known Kelowna figure, who has many accomplishments under his belt that we could only dream of. To insult him shows how little the GG has to go on.

Big White may still manage as a ski-hill, but real estate there crashed a couple of years back. Any real realtor knows that!

While we spend the spring/summer/fall in Kelowna, we likely wouldn’t if it wasn’t for our relatives living there (including some out-of-work tradespeople).

We enjoy Kelowna for what it is, a small city (or large town) with a lake, a few nice weeks in the summer, and having our friends/family nearby.

To call it ‘awesome’ is an overstatement, especially coming from someone who used to call it a ‘cesspool’.

Maybe the Golden God of Kelowna real estate can prove how wonderful it is by sharing his real estate income for the last twelve months.

And while he is at it, what happened to the office he was opening? And why is his website redirecting to a separate company (unrelated to real estate) using his domain name?

#155 Sideshow Rob on 12.13.14 at 3:24 pm

Some really random thoughts about the recent Bank of Canada statement on real estate…
Central banks are not known to exaggerate. Indeed their statements tend to be very much on the conservative side. Right now Canada is quite possibly the highest risk country in the world for a major real estate price collapse…and all that goes with that. Personally, municipally, provincially and federally we are indebted up to our collective gills. When debt levels are this high it doesn’t take much to destabilize things. High debt loads are not naturally stable. The recent oil price collapse and commodity price collapse in general cannot possibly go past us without huge consequences.

The Bank of Canada finds itself in a position where it needs to warn people about the risks but the last thing they want is to be blamed for a price collapse. This tells me they see far worse than 30% down as a possibility. more to come…

#156 Snowboid on 12.13.14 at 3:26 pm

#143 KELOWNA? on 12.13.14 at 1:08 pm…

The building we rent in Kelowna has a similar sad past, units that sold for $ 500K six years ago were listed earlier this year for under $ 400K.

Some of the upper floor units have lost $ 300K plus since they first sold, a couple of which were sold at a much bigger loss than that.

If oil stays down until the spring, expect a flood of listings as the Alberta crew retreat back to the east.

As confirmed vultures, this may be the spring to buy (cash sale only), but it will be hard to give up the investment income.

#157 Sideshow Rob on 12.13.14 at 3:28 pm

As for how bad and where? I am only guessing but here goes. Toronto and Vancouver are over inflated gas bags but they will be the last to fall and the ridiculous prices will only get more ridiculous. Things will collapse from the outside in. At the global level big money is very worried. Asia, Europe, Russia and the Middle East are financial basket cases. Governments are getting desperate for cash. Wealthy people with options generally don’t stick around to get plucked. North America, especially the US is increasingly looking like the safe haven on planet Earth. Tons of money will move there and boost assets prices. I believe Vancouver and Toronto will catch some of this money as well. Close to the US but not in it. Many people find that to be a good thing. As much as Canadians mock them they really are world class cities. They are on the radar of people with options. Toronto and Vancouver will suffer eventually but I believe it won’t be any time soon. More to come.

#158 Sideshow Rob on 12.13.14 at 3:32 pm

Part3.
Other over inflated Canadian cities are a completely different story. I live in Calgary and hardly anyone I know lives here because they really want to. They come from all over for better economic opportunities. Many have come here, made a pile, sold their house and moved back home. Calgary just isn’t “home” to most people. What do you have when you take oil opportunities away from Calgary and Edmonton? You have Winnipeg, Saskatoon and Regina. . Those other cities have been recently gassed up too, with oil wells pumping across the prairies. It won’t be pretty in the west. As Garth often says every city and town thinks they are special. “But we have mountains!”. “We have a lake!”. “We have tundra!”. ” We are diversified!”. No one is different. We will all feel this pain. All except the blog dogs of course.

#159 barnz0rz on 12.13.14 at 3:48 pm

Here’s a quick pulse check on the Kelowna job market:

I lived there 5 years ago. I go up there now about every 3 – 4 months for my current job. When I have my downtime at night at the hotel, I call up my old friends to see if they want to hang out. No one is around, they’re all working in Alberta.

Maybe with the way oil is going on my next trip up in the spring more of my friends will be around?

#160 Doug in London on 12.13.14 at 4:03 pm

@Suede, post #16:
I suspect those peak oil people have gone to the same place as the “experts” who said oil could go to $5/barrel in 1998 when it was at $11, because there is such a big oversupply. When the price of something has gone way up and “experts” say it will continue forever, that’s a good time to sell and take some profits. Similarly, when something (like oil right now) takes a big drop and those same “experts” say it will keep dropping forever it’s a signal to buy. There’s no guarantee of a quick bounce back to prices of $80 or more, so if you are a day trader with no patience at all then forget all I’ve said and scroll down to the next post. If you are a long term investor it’s probably a good time to add energy companies or ETFs to your portfolio, especially if you have none presently.

There’s a shopping mall not far from where I live, and the parking lot’s full of cars today. I wonder how those cars get the mechanical power to turn the wheels?

#161 kommykim on 12.13.14 at 4:09 pm

RE: #140 CalgaryRocks on 12.13.14 at 12:39 pm
#131 james on 12.13.14 at 10:50 am
You forgot to mention that the feds agreed to it only because the province, in this case BC, a bastion of libtards, as you call them, has not only asked for it but also approved it

It is a common misconception that the BC Liberals are actually liberals. They are really CONservatives in Liberal clothing. They became independent of their provincial/federal counterparts in 1987 because they really have nothing in common with true liberals.

#162 Drill Baby Drill on 12.13.14 at 4:24 pm

#130 Miketheengineer

There will be blood. I work for a major EPCM firm in Cowtown as a VP of engineering. We are already making our list and checking it twice going to layoff whether you are naughty or nice. Our major clients have already telegraphed to us their intentions and more revisions to their plans are to come. The majors are all announcing to us that they will try and keep all employees and instead cut capital budgets and then hold on. This means that the engineering firms will be the first to layoff before the producers. We have been laying off engineering in Calgary for the past 18 months. This oil price plunge is only accelerating this trend. Make no mistake the producers will be laying off but not until break-up in March. Many have their production hedged into mid 2015 so the bite is not happening as yet but it will big time.

#163 Drill Baby Drill on 12.13.14 at 4:30 pm

#139 Gregor Samsa
You are essentially correct. Saudi may be holding production steady and it is causing an oversupply. Regardless of the geopolitical gamesmanship being played out between OPEC, Russia and the USA it is still a supply vs demand equation. Demand is not in balance with supply and now here we are. Look out below !!!

#164 waiting on the westcoast on 12.13.14 at 5:15 pm

#102 AB Boxster re: 1000 HAM students going to our schools at 50k a year

I am often stunned by how many people are jealous of other’s success. First, that is 50M topline revenue to UBC that helps cover infrastructure, profs and overhead. Second, they bring a ton more money to be spent on other goods and services in our economy. Finally, many end up staying and leverage their networks, capital, etc., to help create businesses and jobs here.

Immigration is great for Canada. People that are willing to leave their homes and family are often the most innovative, ambitious, adaptable and risk tolerant people you could find. Bring them on!

#165 everythingisterrible on 12.13.14 at 5:37 pm

Smoking Man. (regarding 75% of your posts)
Your blatant ripping off of hunter s. thompson is nauseating. (In persona, ideals and writing style) You’re not Raoul Duke. please abandon this as I’m sure the man is rolling in his grave due to your unoriginal thievery and butchery.
Stick to your insights surrounding economics, at least they are tolerable.

#166 Arfmooocat on 12.13.14 at 6:11 pm

Here Is A Simple Way Of Seeing Who Gets Screwed Most As Oil Tumbles

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/simple-way-seeing-gets-screwed-161500695.html

#167 live within your means on 12.13.14 at 6:27 pm

Old friends of mine bought a home in Kelowna years ago, rented it out to great tenants for years then sold it for a good profit. They also bought a condo in Ottawa & did the same. They owned a home nearby, did some renos, sold it for a good profit. Had a cottage in the gatineaus, did renovations but held onto it. They now live in Kanata. Her sole younger sibling, a sis, died unexpectedly & she inherited her estate. Both are retired, travel, & are in relatively good health. Still in touch w/her. We both were posted to Nato in Brussels at the same time. We travelled a lot & I did alone also. Got to meet & spend 10 days with my Aunt & Uncle in Denmark & meet other relatives.

Feeling nostalgic this eve.

#168 Arfmooocat on 12.13.14 at 6:43 pm

WTI Crude 57.41 −1.61 (−2.73%)
CDN Light Sweet 51.11 −1.61 (−3.05%)
WCS Heavy 39.81 −1.61 (−3.89%)
Brent Crude 61.55 −1.70 (−2.69%

#169 Smoking Man on 12.13.14 at 6:54 pm

#168 everythingisterrible on 12.13.14 at 5:37 pm
Smoking Man. (regarding 75% of your posts)
Your blatant ripping off of hunter s. thompson is nauseating. (In persona, ideals and writing style) You’re not Raoul Duke. please abandon this as I’m sure the man is rolling in his grave due to your unoriginal thievery and butchery.
Stick to your insights surrounding economics, at least they are tolerable.
….

For you information, I had no idea who Hunter S Thompson was. Don’t read or follow movies..

It’s blog dogs who brought him to my attention, the similarity… I then went to the Web and discovered him. I then down loaded fear and loathing, and a few more, then hemmingway. Enjoyed the books.

It’s all in the archives of greater fool.

Thomson ripped me off… I’ve been this way since I’ve been in my teens. He and I probably crossed paths back in the day. And the prick copied my style.. Good for him.

#170 Smoking Man on 12.13.14 at 7:01 pm

#148 smokingboy on 12.13.14 at 1:42 pm
God get your own blog to troll on smoking boy. Didn’t your mother tell you that all attention isn’t created equal?

I habitually skip over all long posts, but you made a short one today where you whine about being deleted, and right after that one, are deleted again. I lol’ed. Some people are so desperate for attention, what drives that? A need to feel important? Vanity is the death of reason.
………

Dude, I like drinking excessively, and often.. The I love to put my thoughts on here.. I’ve had some really good ones.. But mostly shit…

I have 27 fans and thousands of enemies on here.. I’m immature, childish and a goof.. Suck it up.. I don’t care what you or other by the bookers think…..

You’ll be fan one day, it’s happened to many… On here…

#171 Mark on 12.13.14 at 7:03 pm

“The Bank of Canada finds itself in a position where it needs to warn people about the risks but the last thing they want is to be blamed for a price collapse. This tells me they see far worse than 30% down as a possibility.”

The problem with the BoC is that, over the past decade, they have been largely without policy tools to actually fight the RE over-valuation. Monetary policy and inflation targeting is “supposed” to be industry-neutral, but the CMHC has been, through issuing government-subsidized subprime mortgage insurance, directing nearly all of the incremental credit in the economy towards housing and personal consumption.

30% nationally might seem relatively tame, but what it means is probably 0% in places like Fredericton, but -70% in Vancouver. Wherever you have the most debt, you have the greatest probable price declines.

#172 robert james on 12.13.14 at 7:41 pm

It appears that the ReMAX pumper article has been removed from Castanet, at least I no longer see it..It must have got back to the goof from ReMax that made that crap up that his BS was on The Greater Fool and they tried to safe themselves from further embarrassment.. Mark`s article is still there down the page under Accidental Journey.. The good guys can win after-all.. http://www.castanet.net/

#173 Jonathan on 12.13.14 at 8:21 pm

#168 everythingisterrible

Agreed. The “smoking man” poster here is a completely unoriginal fraud, a plagiarist and a second rate hack looking for attention.

As an individual his modus operandi is completely bush league and he assumes no one has read any of the original source material that he steals and adulterates.

What a pathetic goof.

I skip over his crap and suggest if you have a brain and any sense of integrity to do the same.

#174 SWL1976 on 12.13.14 at 8:27 pm

#158 Sideshow Rob

Right now Canada is quite possibly the highest risk country in the world for a major real estate price collapse…

——————————————-

But, but, but not in Kelowna it could never happen there, they just built a new hospital.

Sarcasam off. A coworker of mine brought up real estate in that area in last summer mentioning he was in a little over his head and wanted out, but he may have been stuck selling at a loss. He didn’t and I wonder how he feels now?

Why do so many trades people from that area fly to Ft Mac for work I wonder?

#175 Smoking Man on 12.13.14 at 8:48 pm

I dedicate this post to Susan Sontag, December 28 will mark 10 years since she went to the other side.

For you Susan…..)

The most calming, and stabilizing thing we humans have learnd. Lying. The better we get at it, the more stable life is.

Truth is anarchy, it causes murder, mayhem, destruction. It’s destabilizing.

As you sit on the the sofa with your loved won, just think if he or she could read the entire content of your mind.. You’re real thoughts, not the lies you you paint with that smile….

All hell would break out…

Love you Susan…..

#176 AB Boxster on 12.13.14 at 9:05 pm

#167 waiting on the westcoast
___________________________

I am sure from your comments that you must be stunned.
If you actually read the article’s comments, they make no judgment about the success of others. They do however question the impact that the newfound wealth of others from around the world may be having on Canada.

Immigration can be a good thing for countries.
But are we really talking about immigration here, or is Canada just being used to park newly found global wealth?

If, as the article states, that Canadian real estate is seen as a place of convenience for the rapidly expanding upper classes of the world, and the result is that Canadian citizens can no longer afford to purchase property as a result, then please explain how this is good for Canada and Canadians?

And please, no ‘trickle down’ theories, or the ‘wealthy are the job creators’ platitudes. Its all been shown to be nonsense.

There is no doubt that Canada is a great for those with accumulated wealth, who want to have a safe place to park their cash, or run to when their native countries fall apart.
Just explain to me again, how it’s actually good for Canada.

It just is?
Really? Time for that debate.

And lets critically examine your comments that by building institutions that are only accessible to the nouveau rich of the world, that this is really of benefit to everyone else in my country.

It just is?
Really? Time for that debate.

You confuse equality of income or wealth with equality of opportunity.
There will always be differentials in wealth.
And wealth has its privileges.

However, if by importing the world’s wealth to our country with little thought or consideration of the impacts, and if we are now reducing opportunity for Canadians, then I think this is problematic.

The article makes this case.
And, if this is the case, then Canada is pathetic for allowing this to occur.

#177 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 12.13.14 at 9:24 pm

#143 KELOWNA? on 12.13.14 at 1:08 pm

DA,
Thank you for your comments. I live in Vancouver and go to Kelowna in the summer.
Can you share with us how SFH and Condo’s have done since the peak? I believe it was in 2007.
I know someone who bought a very nice high floor, lake facing unit from the developer in Waterscapes for $650K completed in 2008 or 2009? Its apprised for $550K today and I understand he might have trouble getting that even?

I am not a big fan of The Waterscapes development. The low rise units were built out at that recessionary period in 2008 when nothing was selling so the developer ended up renting the units in the last two or three buildings as they weren’t selling. The tower is nice but shares amenities with the low rise and there are a lot of people sharing those limited facilities. It’s gone kind of trashy and there are problems with the social atmosphere if you get my drift };-)

Far prefer The Lagoons and The Dolphins. Stay away from Discovery Bay.

As for how things have done since the peak in 2007… well of course, shortly thereafter, they dropped due to the general state of the economy and an oversupply of units for sale. Developers then were building, not for end users but, for speculators. That happens and is exactly what happened to Waterscapes – they got greedy. SHIFT happens as the market takes back unwarranted gains.

Those excesses have since been eroded and prices are rising. It’s slow to start at first but as it builds momentum it goes exponential. Unfortuately that tends to be the first warning sign of an impending correction just as it was in 2007 early 2008.

I would say we are, all things being equal, back to where we were then. Now that may not be the case for your friends should I suspect probably bought in the heat of the moment direct from the developer who was not about to show them available competitive units elsewhere that might educate them to believe (understand) the developers unit was not worth the lofty price they then demanded.

#159 Snowboid on 12.13.14 at 3:26 pm

You’re not making any sense at all man. Get a grip. Senility appears to be sinking in fast… maybe time to check into a home my friend.

#178 Smoking Man on 12.13.14 at 9:31 pm

#136 Sinful Man on 12.13.14 at 11:47 am
#93 Smoking Man Imagine the lucridity of a BOOF (burned out old fkr) standing on his skinny trembling legs, beaking off and howling in pain at the Creator of the universe. The bible warns in Psalm 119:21, “You rebuke the insolent, accursed ones who wander from your commandments …” Therefore repent you fool, you are being rebuked.
…..

Repent, what should fall to ground, begging for forgiveness.. I never wanted to be here in the fking first place. The prick took me me away from my content nothingness to this shit hole we call earth.

I’ve given him ample opportunity to bring me up to his office, boating on Lake Ontario in ravaging thunderstorms in a small 20 ft boat, and screaming at the top of my lungs up to him.. I want to talk to to you.. I don’t like what your doing down here..

He doesn’t do shit.. The basterd takes my mom, the day we drop my perfect nephew below ground…

He and I will meet one day… It’s a day he dreads.. Trust me..

#179 SWL1976 on 12.13.14 at 9:45 pm

#76 Spectacle – Good to see others are paying attention, I didn’t get much out of your links though

For anyone else out there who is paying attention and interested in a little 21st century political satire google search ‘david dees’ and click on images or go right to his site. He is a visual artist who now does some interesting work with regards to agenda 21 and politics in the 21st century. As disturbing as some images are (though none are graphic) its like a illustrated version of what has been and is happening globally

Enjoy the rest of your weekend all :-)

#180 Smoking Man on 12.13.14 at 9:47 pm

#176 Jonathan on 12.13.14 at 8:21 pm
#168 everythingisterrible

Agreed. The “smoking man” poster here is a completely unoriginal fraud, a plagiarist and a second rate hack looking for attention.

As an individual his modus operandi is completely bush league and he assumes no one has read any of the original source material that he steals and adulterates.

What a pathetic goof.

I skip over his crap and suggest if you have a brain and any sense of integrity to do the same.
….

Have you not figured out yet, chirps inspire me… What have you contributed.

What’s your take on life, I’ll bet you fifty bucks, when I eventually finish and publish my book you will be the first to download it free from Pirate Bay..

If you want my respect, add some content, put you’re self on stage, rather than a coward firing our spit balls from a straw at the big screen of a movie you don’t like. Idiot…

#181 Linda on 12.13.14 at 9:57 pm

Smoking Man

You are a narcissistic gasbag and loser who contributes nothing of substance to the comments section here. When you are actually even remotely on topic its clear you are a shill for real estate boosterism, in spite of the evidence all around us.

Get the fk off this blog you bumwipe.

#182 For those about to flop... on 12.13.14 at 10:04 pm

People always tell me to move out to Surrey
15 year old boy beaten to death for no reason…no thanks

#183 Smoking Man on 12.13.14 at 10:22 pm

It’s amazing how the schooled judge.. Here I am with a spastic thumb.. It’s typing these words into a smart phone..

My brain is clear.. I tell my thumb, writer this. But after a few drinks. It goes wacky the auto correct puts in words that were not in my mind.then adiaince judges me..

Smoking Man your an idiot.. You can’t spell, your a fraud.. Your not original.

Have any of you bit your thumb for being bad… I just did… I’ll teach the bastard a lesson..

Yes this post was plagiarized…

F-en idiots….

#184 Steve French on 12.13.14 at 10:25 pm

…maybe we should just hang the rich…..

#185 Smoking Man on 12.13.14 at 10:32 pm

184 Linda on 12.13.14 at 9:57 pm
Smoking Man

You are a narcissistic gasbag and loser who contributes nothing of substance to the comments section here. When you are actually even remotely on topic its clear you are a shill for real estate boosterism, in spite of the evidence all around us.

Get the fk off this blog you bumwipe.

…….

You’re addicted to me, aren’t you toots. You figured out the great smoking Man will acknowledge you with a chirp..

You’ve been acknowledged, print on put on your fridge… Have a cocktail party and show this to your friend…. Smokey talked to me…

#186 palebird on 12.13.14 at 10:35 pm

#119 Man you are really out there. I think you are as gone as they get.Aviation industry?? What aviation industry?? KFC ha ha. Any industry that Kelowna ever had has left town long time ago. There is nothing. Never was much of anything. It is most definitely becoming a carbon copy of Penticton. Is that bad, I don’t know, I kind of like to visit Penticton when I want to do absolutely nothing. Kind of like the rest of the valley.

#187 Smoking Man on 12.13.14 at 10:45 pm

#187 Steve French on 12.13.14 at 10:25 pm
…maybe we should just hang the rich…..

….

I thought we were buddies, that hurts.

#188 Freedom First on 12.13.14 at 10:57 pm

#151

Sounds like your sales #’s are down.

#189 countrymusicfan on 12.13.14 at 11:06 pm

Seriously, Smoking Man, you have overstayed your welcome. Garth has been way too patient with you.

Just go away. Your stupidity devalues this entire website.

#190 Piccaso on 12.13.14 at 11:25 pm

you bumwipe

LOL

#191 Smoking Man on 12.13.14 at 11:25 pm

DELETED

#192 JSS on 12.13.14 at 11:45 pm

Forget about declining oil for a minute…

The iShares S&P TSX Capped REIT Index Fund (TSE:XRE) has a P/E ratio of 5.77.

This is insanely low. Add in a dividend of ~ 5.1%, and this makes for a yummy buy.

#193 Entrepreneur on 12.14.14 at 12:02 am

House prices are coming down around here too.

#112 Avoid ETF’s in Canada…delation is good for buyers.
If people stayed away from credit a person has more play, more power. Deflation is bad if bought high then prices go down; bankers also get some pain but not as high-priced buyer. My take.

#194 Ontario's Left Coast on 12.14.14 at 12:10 am

Haha, best Smoking Man burn ever — Well done, #184 Linda on 12.13.14 at 9:57 pm :

Smoking Man

You are a narcissistic gasbag and loser who contributes nothing of substance to the comments section here. When you are actually even remotely on topic its clear you are a shill for real estate boosterism, in spite of the evidence all around us.

Get the fk off this blog you bumwipe.

#195 Retired Boomer - WI on 12.14.14 at 12:15 am

Driver Training picture, eh Garth?

Curious what the next few seconds had to show? So this is with the way conduct things too often in life. Oversteer, overcorrect, sometimes we recover, other times crash and burn.

So, where ARE we know?

#196 Mark on 12.14.14 at 12:38 am

“The iShares S&P TSX Capped REIT Index Fund (TSE:XRE) has a P/E ratio of 5.77.”

Very likely a calculation error. The BlackRock website says 11. Yahoo Finance says 15.

See Shawn’s (famous greaterfool blog participants’) comments at:

http://www.investorsfriend.com/RioCan%20Dec%2031%202013.htm

On some of the accounting issues with IFRS and Canadian REITs, in particular, the largest component of XRE, Riocan.

#197 Mark on 12.14.14 at 12:42 am

Just further to my previous comments, it appears, at first glance, that REITs have managed to get the rules changed so that they’re able to claim, as earnings, “appreciation” in the value of their properties.

Traditional non-real estate corporations are not allowed such treatment (ie: the CNR can’t claim their earnings have increased merely on the appreciation they experience on their long-term investment in railways infrastructure — in fact, they have to recognize depreciation on such!). So tread with caution and make sure you understand the differences in accounting treatment before you make the plunge. REITs, of course, should trade at dramatically lower P/E ratios than active businesses because RE assets tend not to grow over the long term at rates higher than that of inflation, and REITs flow-through their income to unitholders, hence, don’t have to pay income tax themselves (again, exxagerating E).

#198 Spectacle on 12.14.14 at 12:44 am

Re:
#182 SWL1976 on 12.13.14 at 9:45 pm
#76 Spectacle – Good to see others are paying attention, I didn’t get much out of your links though

For anyone else out there who is paying attention and interested in a little 21st century political satire google search ‘david dees’ and click on images or go right to his site. He is a visual artist who now does some interesting work with regards to agenda 21 and politics in the 21st century. As disturbing as some images are (though none are graphic) its like a illustrated version of what has been and is happening globally
*********************
Thanks , most observant yourself! Sorry links regarding Agenda-21 frequently get diverted, or corrupted. Nikki Ripanna is an amazingly original writer/researcher into the Tyranny & Destructive agenda of Agenda-21.

Also appreciate your David Dee’s reference, will be looking it up in a few minutes. Thnx to You & Garth.

#199 Kim on 12.14.14 at 12:48 am

Ontario’s Left Coast on 12.14.14 at 12:10 am
Haha, best Smoking Man burn ever — Well done, #184 Linda on 12.13.14 at 9:57 pm :

Smoking Man

You are a narcissistic gasbag and loser who contributes nothing of substance to the comments section here. When you are actually even remotely on topic its clear you are a shill for real estate boosterism, in spite of the evidence all around us.

Get the fk off this blog you bumwipe.
—————————————————————–

Smokingman is such an obvious shill for the RE industry it’s not even funny. The fact he can’t even spell indicates he doesn’t even have high school like most realtors.

#200 Steve French on 12.14.14 at 2:18 am

Hey blog dawgs.

Leave Smokey ALONE!

He’s in a world of pain right now. And he’s drunk.

So have some respect.

How about some solidarity on this blog.

shees.

“Hostility, indifference and numbness to all but the most elemental primary groups have largely replaced collective solidarity, empathy and compassion construed along class lines. Individuals and States justify a callous and exclusionary approach to others based on the notion that, in an environment of scarcity, compassion begins (and remains) at home.

Under such conditions people no longer think of themselves as historical subjects. Instead they become the passive recipients of the unilateral actions of the new transnational elite, incapable of seeing themselves as agents capable of transforming their own lives, much less destinies, even less the basic way in which social life is conceptualized. This is an existence without a clear alternative, and hence the possibility of escape. As Marx pointed out, “(1)t is not the consciousness of men that determines their existence, but, on the contrary, their social existence determines their consciousness.” (“Contribution to the Critique of Political Economy,” in Marx and Engels: Basic Writings [ 19591 : 43).

Utterly reduced to thinking in terms of immediate material survival, or alienated to the point of thinking only in terms of post-modern identifications that obscure common grounds for inter-group solidarity, most of today’s world are conscious only of themselves.”

#201 souvereigninternational on 12.14.14 at 2:51 am

the only inteligent opinion that i read about oil prices:

http://www.salientpartners.com/epsilontheory/?page=3

#202 Vanectdotal on 12.14.14 at 3:39 am

#179 AB Boxster

+1000

Quite possibly the most rational, honest, insightful and thoughtful response to the question of rampant foreign RE speculation in Vancouver, (and other select Cdn. locales) in recent years. We need to honestly evaluate the pros and cons of continuing on our current trajectory going forward. I heartily concur, it’s time to have this discussion.

#203 Chicken Big on 12.14.14 at 4:25 am

Those naughty wags at Zero Hedge have just announced that government paying off debt is ‘almost mathematically impossible. So….don’t expect rates to rise any time soon. The politico’s have dug themselves so deep slurging on wages and pensions that there is no way that they can afford a rise in payments. With the budget on a meat hook….where is the money going top come from to increase repayments?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-12/paying-down-debt-now-almost-mathematically-impossible

We all know that it is numerically impossible to win a pyramid scheme…there aren’t enough people on the planet. So believing the government can grow more debt is nonsensical…the ZH guys are right.

When the BOC tries to beat down the economy at every chance….you know they’re out of options except to beggar the nation and hope they’re out of office and in the Sun Belt somewhere before the Great Insolvency sets in.

Don’t think for a minute that PS pensions will be on the renegotiation table…..It’ll be like Detroit where the ‘leadership’ will sell off the museums before giving back a dime on PS wages and pensions. .

#204 John on 12.14.14 at 4:25 am

The economy is broken: The global economy cannot function at or above $100/barrel oil and the oil industry cannot make a profit below $100/barrel oil.
It is time to focus locally and support your community, interesting times lay ahead

#205 DeadSeneca on 12.14.14 at 4:51 am

I can’t concur with pale bird, from Penticton, it’s a dead town.

#206 Steve on 12.14.14 at 6:18 am

Wow what a punch up! The comments are so intense!
Kelowna is weird. I know that because I have lived here since 1975. I never left. I have worked in aviation here for nearly twenty years. Aviation is also weird. It’s hard to say how busy the shop will be most times. It can suddenly get really really busy or just die off. What I’ve noticed is the strip malls on the westside that were built and never leased. That’s odd. It just seems like this valley and all the towns in it are confused. Kelowna is not vancouver, penticton is not kelowna. There always was an ongoing cultural identity crisis here. It’s an incoherent place that seems disinterested in its own history. Honestly there aren’t many kids that stayed here from my age group. They had to move away. It was that or live low on the hog. I managed to stay because I was good at building things and I always found work doing that. I could leave now and be ok with that. There’s nothing here that’s special or irreplacble. It’s just a resort area where people like to come and for a few days in the summer. Also why have we never moved on from closing everything at 5pm? And why is there limits nothing for young people to do here? It’s so inert

#207 Lawboy on 12.14.14 at 8:10 am

Once again Garth, you have highlighted the ethical gaps in the real estate industry.

It is really amazing the lack of regulatory oversight of a group of people who charge so much to their clients, tens of thousands per transaction.

In a normal real estate transaction, lawyers make a few thousand at the very most, and are subject to all kinds of audits and inspections by LSUC, as well as pretty tough ethical standards (though admittedly not perfect, the mechanism is in place).

The whole real estate cartel needs to be driven off the road, not unlike today’s photo. Something new, transparent, ethical and accountable needs to be in place nationwide.

——————————————————–

And as far as the sub-theme today of the troll known as Smoking Man, please keep deleting him, Garth. Knowing that his unoriginal garbage will be on here every day often makes me decide not to open up your blog at all, or certainly not to read the comments at least.

How about a 2015 without any such idiot posters? I think about 90% here would support you in that.

#208 Bottoms_Up on 12.14.14 at 9:08 am

#185 For those about to flop… on 12.13.14 at 10:04 pm
———————————————————–
Violence and crime knows no bounds. That type of thing can happen anywhere. A single event is known as anecdotal evidence, and carries little weight. Statistical analysis of actual crime rates across a city, now that’s something you can get behind.

I like to use this crime mapping tool for Ottawa to get a picture of overall crime in various areas:

http://www.ottawapolice.ca/en/ottawacrimemappingtool.asp

#209 Happy Renting on 12.14.14 at 9:33 am

#199 Mark on 12.14.14 at 12:38 am

Interesting. I didn’t know Shawn had a website. Thanks for the link.

#210 Ronaldo on 12.14.14 at 9:44 am

#209 Steve – I agree with your take on Kelowna. I lived there for about a year in the early 2000’s and have to say that during the summer months, Kelowna is a very “alive” and is a nice place to hang out with its great waterfront and beaches. Many great restaurants, and night spots (especially the Blue Gator Blues Bar). However, come September when all the kids are back in school and the tourists have disappeared, the place is a total dead zone. From about May to mid September, a great place to be but fall and winter months no so great except for Big White which is an awesome ski resort and great place to work and play during ski season.

#211 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 12.14.14 at 10:20 am

#172 Smoking Man on 12.13.14 at 6:54 pm
Smoking man I don’t believe Hunter S Thompson ripped you off as he was born in 1937 he is even older than I am. And you are younger than me.

#212 ANON on 12.14.14 at 10:37 am

#206 Chicken Big

Paying off debt with interest is not “almost” mathematically impossible, it is *always* mathematically impossible. Any high school student knows, or should know that, it is not exactly a secret:
You_Owe= Existing_Principal × (1+Loan_Rate)^Number_Of_Periods.

#213 Daisy Mae on 12.14.14 at 10:44 am

#17 Freedom First: “Thank you for your Blog Garth. It has helped keep me on a sound financial footing while people all around me were borrowing their brains out deluding themselves into thinking that they really did have money…”

**********************

This is so very true. When and if I spend, I do so very cautiously…while watching all those around me ‘charge’ ahead.

#214 Dominoes Lining Up on 12.14.14 at 10:55 am

Well, in spite of the naysayers and climate change deniers who troll the internet, the Peru UN summit has reached agreement on preparing pledges for the much awaited Paris summit in 2015.

Even though environmentalists are calling this disappointing in many ways, it’s hard not to see it as a huge game changer. It happened. It includes requirements for national pledges to be submitted within 4 months from now as well as commitments to go beyond current planned reductions. The fact environmentalists are unhappy actually gives them more credence and traction going into 2015. Expect to hear lots more about the troubles we’re heading for.

The train is moving, slowly. But it is on the rails now, has left the station, and only a fool would deny it.

Whatever happens to the price of oil and economies in places like Alberta over the next 12+ months is likely irrelevant; Paris 2015 will likely deliver a near fatal blow if leaders in oil economies don’t seriously plan to diversify, like right now. Keystone is looking more and more like a soon to be forgotten afterthought in all this.

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30468048

And this is clearly going to affect us much sooner than many have suspected. Not centuries, but decades, just a couple, maybe three – scientists admit that the timing is hard to predict but could well be much sooner than we’d hope.

Have a listen:

http://www.cbc.ca/thesundayedition/features/2014/12/14/coastal-florida-and-miami-are-doomed-says-scientist-harold-wanless/

“According to Harold Wanless, a lot of that property could well be worthless and literally underwater in a few decades. His word to describe the future of Miami? Doomed.”

Miami and south Florida – DOOMED.

D-O-O-M-E-D.

He expects only handfuls of people to be living there in 70-80 years. Your beachfront condo? Find a greater fool now to live with the 10-20 foot rise in sea level by then.

Property there?

“….not a suitable investment….”

Sea level rises of at least 1 foot per decade, and due to this 80% of freshwater resources will be gone by 2060 or so in Florida, projected by Wanless. No fresh water, no people living there.

Listen as well to the scary implications for Vancouver and parts of Canada’s east coast.

Greenland’s ice sheet, the overwhelming consensus says, will entirely melt this century. Huge warming and sea level rise.

Methane gases released from the arctic permafrost will make large swaths of the earth uninhabitable for most mammals. That means us, including troll deniers, despite their resemblance to dinosaurs.

In spite of this, Wanless is not without hope. He sees this as the moment for people to wake up and start electing leaders who will do the right thing.

I think by 2020 we will already be looking at the illusions of the oil era in the rear-view mirror.

Alberta? Solar and wind power looks like a good new direction.

Politicians? The smart (and of course cynical as well) will very soon understand they can get in at the front of this train or end up underneath it.

#215 Bytor The Snow Dog on 12.14.14 at 10:58 am

@151 Ontario’s Left Coast

Yes, it is not cool to pick on those less fortunate than ourselves.

But they chose their profession, didn’t they? :-)

#216 SWL1976 on 12.14.14 at 10:58 am

#207 John

The economy is broken: The global economy cannot function at or above $100/barrel oil and the oil industry cannot make a profit below $100/barrel oil.
It is time to focus locally and support your community, interesting times lay ahead

———————————————-

Now that about sums up the situation, now let’s add some climate change and geopolitical power struggles, and some food and water shortages. Now that sounds like a recipe for disaster

My 2 cents on the comments section… I like it uncensored, beyond basic respect which should obvious to all. I do wonder though sometimes how Garth does it. Being a referee of the comments section at the Greater Fool headquarters can be a thankless job at times I’m sure

Your efforts do not go unnoticed Garth, and all of us blog dogs should be thankful we have such a forum to share our sometimes whacky thoughts

#217 TexasTea on 12.14.14 at 11:50 am

Take that you Fort Mac pipe pigs and shove that gas nozzle where the sun don’t shine.

#218 Daisy Mae on 12.14.14 at 12:15 pm

#144 Noneofit: “Hey but Remax says all is on the upward swing and the restaurants are full….”

******************

…of people using plastic to pay for those meals. This is not a sign of good times.

#219 Steve French on 12.14.14 at 12:27 pm

“Few men realize that their life, the very essence of their character, their capabilities and audacities, are only the expression of their belief in the safety of their surroundings. The courage, the composure, the confidence; the emotions and principles; every great and every insignificant thought belongs not to the individual but to the crowd: to the crowd that believes blindly in the irresistible force of its institutions and of its morals, in the power of its police and of its opinion.”

-Nope, not Smoking Man. That was by Joseph Conrad.

#220 robert on 12.14.14 at 12:32 pm

Layoffs are already being planned. A friend of mine was told that he would only have two days off over Christmas, then on Thursday the entire firm announced that they were closing on the 23rd of December and not reopening until January 5/2014. He was then told that 40% to 50% of the staff will be given pink slips on January5/2014. With 120 employess this would mean 50 employees could be out of work.

#221 Godth on 12.14.14 at 12:43 pm

#217 Dominoes Lining Up

Sure, but industrial civilization runs on fossil fuels. Our whole way of inhabiting this planet will have to change. Our values and ethics, personal habits, the economy – everything really. Technological Jesus isn’t going to save us either. Think it through.

If fresh water runs out and areas are reclaimed by the sea how long will nation states and central governments last? I think we’ll carry on as long as resources allow us to (oil particularly)…overshoot (we’re in it) and the long descent (which has begun), like every other civilization before us. Only it’s global.

This is a predicament, not a problem.

#222 Godth on 12.14.14 at 12:54 pm

#184 Linda

Are you trying to turn SM onto Charles Bukowski? SM doesn’t read but if he did…

#223 bdy sktrn on 12.14.14 at 12:57 pm

#217 Dominoes Lining Up on 12.14.14 at 10:55 am
—————————-
the greatest fool of all is you for falling for this pure garbage alarmist horse manure.

i bet you are a poetry or dance major, right?

fool of the highest order. hope you never come near this coast. (where my land and dock on the ocean are not sinking and therefore the water level is not rising. But if you personally get near the coast we are a DOOMED DOOMED DOOMED) panic much?

#224 bill on 12.14.14 at 1:15 pm

Hi Snowboid
It would be more accurate to describe “big white ‘ as ski bump.
its a place where one would go to be ‘not challenged’ as a skier.
I wonder do they actually have a ‘double diamond ‘ run yet?

#225 bill on 12.14.14 at 1:29 pm

perhaps da could fill me in on that black diamond run question?

#226 Harbour on 12.14.14 at 1:34 pm

#223 robert

Bring it on, I want to see more of it.

#227 Marlene from Victoria on 12.14.14 at 2:13 pm

#226 bdy sktrn

And your major?

I am guessing it’s a BS in Denial from a mail order college somewhere.

#228 bdy sktrn on 12.14.14 at 2:16 pm

http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2014/0919/Antarctic-ice-at-record-high-growth-Arctic-continues-to-lose

SCIENCE
Antarctic ice at record-high growth, Arctic continues to lose

Antarctica gained 7.6 million square miles of sea ice this southern winter, according to The National Snow and Ice Data Center, while sea ice in its northern counterpart continues to shrink.

For an unprecedented third year in a row, Antarctica’s sea ice is poised to smash a new record this month.

The Southern Hemisphere’s unrelenting winds and frigid air froze ocean water into 7.6 million square miles (19.7 million square kilometers) of Antarctic sea ice this southern winter, the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) said yesterday (Sept. 16).

With several more weeks of growth to go, Antarctica’s sea-ice extent could soar well above the records set in 2012 and 2013

Researchers think Antarctica’s recent record-high ice extents could result from stronger winds. The southern polar vortex is blowing closer to the continent as a result of the ozone hole and greenhouse gases, according to several studies. The winds help pack ice more tightly and also shift ocean currents in a manner that drives ice formation. But the most recent report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said that models for Antarctic sea ice trends are still “incomplete and competing.”
———————————
this is my favorite part; “Antarctica’s recent record-high ice extents could result from stronger winds.”

nice mental gymnastics. it is warmer, so there is more wind, so more ocean freezes.

i’ll be sure to test this with my icecube tray outside on a windy summer day!

——————–

#229 Vancouverite on 12.14.14 at 2:26 pm

As a born and bred Vancouverite, I just want to chime in on Kelowna.

I’ve lived in Vancouver my entire life (about 40 years). I’ve traveled a fair bit of BC during my years. I can count on one hand the number of times my adventures in life have taken me to Kelowna. I’ve never really understood the hype about Kelowna. When I think of big towns in BC outside of Metro Vancouver, I think Kamloops is far more important than Kelowna. Kelowna isn’t even on the Trans-Canada Highway so why is it such a big town? The major highways that lead out of the Vancouver-region/Lower Mainland toward the rest of Canada are Highway 1 and the Coquihalla, which is Highway 5. Highway 1 and Highway 5 (yes Coquihalla isn’t in the Lower Mainland, it starts at Hope–that is the beginning/end of Lower Mainland) connect the Lower Mainland to Alberta and the rest of Canada. Kelowna isn’t even on those highways. Kamloops is on the junction of Highways 1 and 5 so that right there makes it more important than Kelowna. As a Vancouver person my whole life, when my travels have taken me through the interior of BC, I have been far more likely to stop in Kamloops than Kelowna. Given its highway connections to Vancouver and Alberta, for business and economy, I would think that Kamloops should be a far more important city than Kelowna.

#230 Mister Obvious on 12.14.14 at 2:31 pm

#225 Godth

“Are you trying to turn SM onto Charles Bukowski?”
—————————

Justified. Bukowski is extremely tiresome.

#231 Vancouverite on 12.14.14 at 2:35 pm

PS: I know that Highway 97 goes to Kelowna from Hope. Hardly anybody goes that way if they are going from Vancouver to Alberta/rest of Canada. That highway has a reputation for not being safe. I think it probably takes longer too. The most direct route from Vancouver/Lower Mainland to Calgary is Coquihalla from Hope to Kamloops and then Highway 1 from Kamloops to Calgary. Kamloops is at the junction so it should be the big important city between Vancouver and Calgary. Kelowna isn’t even on the most direct route.

#232 Waterloo Resident on 12.14.14 at 2:39 pm

The lowest-cost oil sands producers use steam to loosen and pull bitumen from the ground and extract the fuel for about $51 a barrel, a July report by the Canadian Energy Research Institute showed.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/canada-heavy-oil-nearing-40-threatens-new-oil-sands-projects.html

Heavy West Canadian Select dropped $3.73, or 8.1 percent, to $42.19 a barrel yesterday, the lowest since April 2009.

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2014/12/11/Albertas-heavy-crude-oil-is-nearing-40-a-barrel-threatening-new-oil-sands-projects.aspx

Okay, lets take a look at those numbers shall we:
– They need heavy crude to be at $50 to be profitable.
– Heavy crude is now priced at $40.

Can anyone see a problem here?

#233 bdy sktrn on 12.14.14 at 2:41 pm

#230 Marlene from Victoria on 12.14.14 at 2:13 pm
#226 bdy sktrn

And your major?

I am guessing it’s a BS in Denial from a mail order college somewhere.
——————————
nope, just like most other ‘deniers’ i studied;

energy systems
energy transfer
heat transfer
fluid mechanics
thermodynamics
physics and chem
advanced differential calculus
statical analysis
vibrations
and tap dancing

at one of the top 3 engineering schools in the country.
and you?

#234 bill on 12.14.14 at 2:49 pm

#232 Vancouverite on 12.14.14 at 2:26 pm
if I may add to that :
form man once pointed out to me it is an industrial hub as well.
mining and logging etc. not to mention sunpeaks.
a ski resort with an actual black diamond run or two….

#235 Marlene from Victoria on 12.14.14 at 2:52 pm

#231 bdy sktrn

Boy, you really are an ignorant idiot, hunting only for what you think confirms your biases, and not bothering to even read for context or detail.

From the VERY ARTICLE YOU CITED (so selectively)!!!!!

“…it’s still very much within the long-term trend of declining sea ice,” said Axel Schweiger, chairman of the University of Washington’s Polar Science Center in Seattle. “One shouldn’t necessarily expect every year to be a record low.”

and

“Sea ice experts said changes wrought by global warming are responsible for both the Arctic’s long-term decline and Antarctica’s surprising increase.”

Duuuuhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

#236 Drill Baby Drill on 12.14.14 at 3:03 pm

#232 Vancouverite
The reason is simple for non-BC residents and that is Kelowna sits on a long and beautiful lake in between Vernon and Penticton all of which are beautiful spots to vacation and orchards / vineyards galore. The weather is beautiful in the summer. Kamloops has a river and is an area broken up by major hills and valleys, railroads and major highways. Okanagan and Skaha lakes are beautiful for waterside homes and camping. Kamloops not so much.

#237 bdy sktrn on 12.14.14 at 3:16 pm

#238 Marlene from Victoria

“…it’s still very much within the long-term trend of declining sea ice,” said Axel Schweiger, chairman of the University of Washington’s Polar Science Center in Seattle. “One shouldn’t necessarily expect every ….

————————-
come back when you can read (or understand) the difference between north and south.

the quote above is about the arctic, you stunned dolt.

the antarctic sea ice is growing WAY faster than the, now slowing, arctic melt.

now go back and write some more poems.

#238 SWL1976 on 12.14.14 at 3:17 pm

#231 bdy sktrn

I don’t think you are much of a debator, as I tried explaining to you the other day why some believed the sea ice in Antarctica to be increaseing. Anyways there are always 2 sides to every story and one should first learn the difference between sea ice which doesn’t effect sea level and land ice which does

This link might help clear some things up for you

#239 Joe2.0 on 12.14.14 at 4:20 pm

Lots of agro on this blog.
Yikes, used house sales people are going to diminish as the markets correct.
RE cartel can pump all the crap it wants.
Things are a changing in petro dollar world.

#240 Drill Baby Drill on 12.14.14 at 4:22 pm

Let’s see now “News flash circa 10,000 years BC”
Polar ice caps finally starting to retreat the 100,000 hunter gatherers are finally rejoicing.

#241 Brutus on 12.14.14 at 4:55 pm

I nominate bdy sktrn for Greatest Fool.

He puts the ‘uuummmm’ in dumb.

#242 exilled on 12.14.14 at 5:12 pm

Sir Garth: That tanker truck is not a gas(liquid) truck!! It’s a Propane truck!!

#243 Nomad on 12.14.14 at 6:13 pm

“The only way for the US to continue to pump fracked oil would be for the government to subsidize production.”

Eager to find out what happens over the next 6 months. Is the white house going to announce subsidies or not. US energy self-sufficiency has been a main goal of the US agenda for years so it would be seen as a failure if a significant number of energy companies close their doors.

#244 Nomad on 12.14.14 at 6:17 pm

Sister shopping for a house in Quebec City.
Retired couple had it for 1 million. Of course it’s not worth that. Down 150k 4 years later. Greedy boomers want to stick to their price, cash-in on a fool. That attitude will add lag in the probable house price decrease.

But Poloz’ statement about the 10-30% over-valuation made the news even there and people are talking.

#245 Daisy Mae on 12.14.14 at 8:28 pm

#245 exilled: “Sir Garth: That tanker truck is not a gas(liquid) truck!! It’s a Propane truck!!”

******************

I don’t think that’s the point. Duh….

#246 Daisy Mae on 12.14.14 at 8:39 pm

#232 Vancouverite: “As a born and bred Vancouverite, I just want to chime in on Kelowna.”

*********************

So am I — born and bred in Vancouver. Kelowna beat out Kamloops in a bid for the Cancer Clinic. Does that not tell you something? LOL

#247 Daisy Mae on 12.14.14 at 8:43 pm

Further to last: KGH is a ‘plenary’ hospital. Centrally located. Accessible to all. Our hospital does already handle open heart surgeries altho’ the Surgical & Coronary Care Unit does not open until the spring of 2015…

#248 bill on 12.14.14 at 10:27 pm

#249 Daisy Mae on 12.14.14 at 8:39 pm
”Does that not tell you something? LOL”
yeah thats so funny.
as far as I am concerned the senior management of the phsa are major cock ups. indeed I would go further and say they couldnt organize a beer up in a brewery.
perhaps you could tell me why my father in law had to go to Vancouver for his aortic aneurism surgery rather than Kelowna?