What comes next

SUICIDAL modified

They cut costs. They slashed rates. They tried a spa. They turned rooms into condos. But just two years after spending a fortune to build a swanky boutique hotel in Victoria’s iconic Oak Bay, on the water, the hotel which bears the neighbourhood name is in receivership.

Ultimately, it may sell for a fraction of the invested amount – likely less than the $125 million in debts – and be a phoenix. Then again, it might turn into a turkey. In any case, there’s one inescapable conclusion – the business environment now sure isn’t what it seemed to promise back in 2012.

The bankers know this. Already two of the Big Six have been shuttering branches and laying off staff. Looks like there is more to come, as the record-profit romp ends for most, and the overhead-cutting begins to maintain stock values. Meanwhile, oil’s stuck in the sixty-dollar bracket. Shiny new Alberta preem Jim Prentice looks hung-over just a month after being a Boy Scout. As you might imagine, there are long faces all over Calgary and Edmonton, plus dragging truck nutz in Fort Mac, because it’s clear the wrong kind of change is coming.

So, on the west coast, in the patch, on Bay Street, people could understand the latest jobs numbers. While the Yanks were churning out new positions like crazy, there were almost 11,000 fewer Canadians working last month and a higher unemployment rate.

In the past year the US has created well over two million new jobs. In Canada employment has increased just 0.8%, and the bulk are part-time. The total number of hours worked has stalled. Last month we lost 45,600 private sector jobs, while government added 22,600. Not much to be proud of there.

But as jobs stay elusive, debt sure doesn’t. Canadians now owe $1.5 trillion, says Equifax (the people with the scary web site and your personal number). About a trillion of that is in the form of mortgages, and debt has increased 7.4% from this time last year – which is 250% more than inflation. As I told you, every month we add, on average, $10 billion in net new mortgage borrowing.

Says the Equifax guy: “Following a frenzied start to the festive shopping season with more to come in the countdown to Christmas, we can expect the consumer debt to rise even further.” By the way, guess where the greatest demand for new debt has been coming from?

Okay, so I mentioned the US stats. Do not be deceived by the doomers who swear all the jobs are cleaning toilets for min wage at Taco Bell, that half the population is living on food stamps and the government’s lying anyway. This is real expansion, and there will be real consequences.

In creating 321,000 new jobs in November, the American economy enjoyed a wide diffusion rate – in other words, jobs are popping up in almost all sectors. It’s the biggest monthly pop in almost three years, and comes after ten months of gains of at least two hundred thousand. The jobless rate’s at a six-year-low and hourly wages are increasing at the fastest rate in 18 months, while the average time worked also grows.

Service industries, factories, transportation, retail – big gains in all. UPS is about to hire 95,000 people to deliver 600 million packages for the holiday season – an on-the-ground example of what an online economy brings. People are working more than at any time since the spring of 2008, before the GFC. Wages are up 2.1% in a year, while inflation is 1.7%. Mortgage rates have come down in the US, and house prices have risen 11%. Gas prices have collapsed. All this means one thing. Growth.

That’s been reflected in a stronger US dollar, falling commodity values, robust corporate profits and record equity market values. The sane conclusion is that this will continue, which is a powerful argument to be overweight in US assets, while being cautious about Canada. As I have said here so often that it bores even me, it’s a tale of two economies. And that makes our bloated three-city real estate market even more dangerous.

Jobs and growth in the US will translate eventually into higher interest rates. It may happen in the spring. Maybe the autumn. But the Fed will start to move in 2015. Bond yields will respond and mortgages gently swell. A decent while later the Bank of Canada will do the same, since higher returns to the south will syphon off rivers of investment capital, and send the loonie even lower. Over 95% of the time our central bank has followed the lead of the Fed. I will bet you the odds of it happening this time are, well, 95%.

Are you ready? Just imagine what $60 oil, 4% mortgages and pissy bankers will do for life around here.

In case you are not yet suicidal, let’s end this with the latest thoughts of housing analyst and ex-realtor Ross Kay, whom CREA would love to see with two quarts of fire ants in his Stanfields.

“We now have enough regional data confirmed to call the Canadian resale market as having entered its next national contraction,” he tells me, adding that you can expect this to continue until the middle of 2016. Kay says any interest rate increase next year will have a profound impact on affordability with “inevitable downward pressure on prices”.

“The harm a contraction causes across the greater economy is estimated at $60,000 per sale.  Assuming the market contracts by 60,000 sales over the next 12 months that equates to approximately $3.6 billion removed from GDP in the election year.

“The only question I have not answered right now is whether this contraction will cause a correction or crash in housing prices.  The greatest risk over the last six years is with Boomers over 55 who purchased larger or more expensive homes while exchanging more modest properties to make it happen.  The greatest concentration in average selling price growth has been concentrated in this specific segment of the market.

“What does all this mean??  What happens to those people who ignored all the warnings provided?”

Bugs. Windshield.

223 comments ↓

#1 Godth on 12.05.14 at 7:00 pm

Exclusive: New U.S. oil and gas well November permits tumble nearly 40 percent
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/02/us-usa-oil-permits-idUSKCN0JG2C120141202

#2 Eric West on 12.05.14 at 7:12 pm

Garth, I am impressed with your daily diligence in writing to encourage, challenge, and educate us all. Most of us are in circumstances where change cannot happen in a day or two, but by coming back to your comments 6 days of 7, we are encouraged to tailor our financial and real-estate lives in relation to the sane long-term perspective you offer, by following your advice. Waaaay more people in Canada are grateful for you than are grated by you and your curiously humorous point of view! Thanks.

#3 not 1st on 12.05.14 at 7:17 pm

Well its not just gold bugs and doomers who doubt the jobs report. The US financial media is doing the same.

Net difference in jobs is really only 4,000 according to the report and a lot of govt manipulation.

Garth got ahead of himself in his enthusiasm for all things america. But the good news is you shouldn’t have to wait very long for fries in 2015.

See what I mean? The deniers are desperate. And wrong again. — Garth

#4 timmy on 12.05.14 at 7:18 pm

People have underestimated Canadian banks for years. as an oligopoly they have almost no competition. The question is when do we top up the shares? Who bough more TD on yesterday’s 5 % drop? Garth? What are your BY St buddies saying?

#5 Mark on 12.05.14 at 7:28 pm

Its pretty simple. Less creditworthy borrowers = higher risk premia applied to the borrowers’ loans.

It will be the banks themselves hiking interest rates on borrowers, not the BoC taking policy action, that will cause the pain in Canada.

Of course, most of it will flow directly to the bottom lines of the banks. Meaning that, there’s no big reason to worry about bank earnings. And as loan origination falls, of course they don’t quite need as many staff in paperwork and sales. Throw in the contraction of GDP due to housing’s slowdown, and the banks are likely to even receive a boost from BoC policy rate cuts.

#6 van guy on 12.05.14 at 7:28 pm

Do u want fries with that jobs report? Yup, the jobs created were mostly part time low paying jobs. The job market is no where near recovery.

Meanwhile……

Massive put vol on $EWC which means traders are betting that the TSX will fall. And it will, that chart is lookin bearish. The V is toast, falling to levels last seen in the GFC. Oil and junk bonds, there is your next crisis.

I hope u saw that s&p valuation chart I tweeted u!

#7 Mister Obvious on 12.05.14 at 7:32 pm

My wife and I stayed at the Oak Bay Beach Hotel last year. It was stunningly beautiful. Five star rooms with a world class view. It was also almost empty in the September shoulder season.

The top floor had been set aside for condo sales. It looked pretty devoid of tenants up there too.

I hope future new owners will be able to keep it as the cozy, classy beachfront hotel gem that is.

But right now, it’s future looks a bit grim. Sad.

#8 Cato the Elder on 12.05.14 at 7:34 pm

Garth how can you say the ‘deniers’ are wrong?

There are OFFICIAL statistics that show that 1/3 of the US is not working. There are official statistics that show over 50 million on food stamps. There are official statistics that show the US debt load is unmanageable. There are official statistics breaking down the job repor that clearly show it’s primarily part-time low wage work.

None of this is conjecture. It should be raising alarm bells for anyone that can think for themselves.

Only those that have become complacent with this ‘normalcy’ that has been occurring for the last decade is going to think everything is OK. It ISN’T normal. It is a historical anomaly. Countries can not continue on this path indefinitely. Debt has consequences.

I wish your rebellious spirit would come around and realize the truth that the US statistics are lies. You’re part way there in recognizing CREA as a bunch of liars, why wouldn’t a much larger organization (federal governments) be the same way?

#9 Got out in time on 12.05.14 at 7:35 pm

Garth great column as always. Your ability to maintain focus (for a long time) on to the important stuff is really inspiring. Thank you! Couple that with your legendary perseverance and you get one man army. I am so glad and thankful you are on my and my family side. Pending minor delays it is crystal clear real-estate market will unravel exactly as you have been predicting for a while now. I do honestly feel worried for many of my friends and family and almost blame myself for not being able to eloquently enough explain dangerous path they are on. In the same time it is almost unbelievable that leader of Canada was so dim witted and narrow minded to prevent you from doing great job for people and this country of ours. He will pay for that coming next election alas the damage will be inflicted on too many Canadian families and it could of been avoided if you where left to do what you do best: Serve your country and its people.
Thank you again for all you do.

#10 Ford Prefect on 12.05.14 at 7:43 pm

I think it can be fairly stated that Closet Man’s® economic action plan consists almost entirely of 0/40, CMHC, HELOC, and 3% (or thereabouts) interest rate.

By allowing Canadians to plunge themselves into $1.5 trillion in debt an enormous boost was given to the Canadian economy which has had the result of making the Harper Government® look good on the economy. Of course the reality is that we have built an economy on debt alone and anyone with any economic smarts can see what the consequences will be when real estate heads into the dumpster.

#11 gladiator on 12.05.14 at 7:45 pm

What’s the last thing that goes through a bug’s mind when it hits the windshield?

#12 Happy Renting on 12.05.14 at 7:46 pm

Bring on the online economy. Been for booze or groceries after work on a Friday? Freaking madness. Almost all my Christmas shopping this year has been online because I can browse and order at 3am from home in my underoos, get it delivered for free, even get rebated a percentage through a referral link account.

I believe the warehouse packing jobs for free-shipping retailers are crud (conditions, pay) but hope the Canada Post/UPS workers get a fair shake.

#13 Realties.ca » What comes next on 12.05.14 at 7:50 pm

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#14 nonplused on 12.05.14 at 7:52 pm

I think there will be tears in Nebraska and Texas too. Shale oil isn’t so pretty at these prices. because of all the drilling that’s been done so far it could take 2 years or more for this correction to run it’s course.

I also think the collapse in prices is more demand driven than anything. US oil consumption is dropping just when their production is rising, and Europe is a mess. Until Europe straightens out the oil demand probably won’t recover.

This will be very bad news for leveraged shale oil drillers, and their employees. And the energy service industry too.

#15 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.14 at 7:52 pm

What comes next?

Cato of course!

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&sqi=2&ved=0CC8QtwIwAw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DFbUD7FRStbY&ei=KUWCVNfLCMWzogT3l4K4DQ&usg=AFQjCNFWI9O7QPmosMDcgiR6fQ8lgdC8Tw&bvm=bv.80642063,d.cGU

#16 JSS on 12.05.14 at 7:55 pm

#4 Timmy

Yes, I bought more TD common shares today to take advantage of the dip.

In banks we trust.

#17 Arfmooocat on 12.05.14 at 7:55 pm

The house of cards is tumbling down.

#18 Market Man on 12.05.14 at 7:59 pm

I have said this before
Employment not interest rates will
Cause a correction. Bank and telcoms
Will find it harder to make beat or match the street and thus Layoffs will ensue. It is difficult to make record
Profits y/y. And as soon jobs disappear so will
Chmc willingness to provide insurance. They will change the rules again.
BoC will not move the overnight for years to come
And the variable rate will once become the more popular mortgage rate.

#19 Spectacle on 12.05.14 at 7:59 pm

Thank You sir Grth.

And a thanks for everyone who responded to my query about investing for a newborn! You all had screen shots of your reply in our upcoming “baby keepsake book”. All good advice.

*****
In regard to today’s post.

” bug, windshield…” What’s next?

Real estate “bugs ” might refuse to heed what a balanced and diversified ” windshield ” is about….. but it will have its natural effect on them.

Anyone know how much bug windshield cleaner they will be selling in Alberta this year and onwards? Lots!

#20 pravchaw on 12.05.14 at 7:59 pm

BTW, 60K for a million dollar house is only 6%. That is not even a correction. In the early 90’s houses fell by 45% in 416. Grown men were cryting like babies (I know I was one of them).

The average home sells for $419,699, not a million. — Garth

#21 Bob Copeland on 12.05.14 at 8:03 pm

Bureau of Labor Statistics = doomers

http://www.google.com/gwt/x?u=http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/ali-meyer/labor-force-participation-remains-36-year-low-0&ei=M0OCVJiJMMb8nQe1n4HQDw&wsc=ib

#22 Smoking Man on 12.05.14 at 8:06 pm

All these dreamers, celebrity wana bees. The marketing is slick at this write a book get rich beyond your wildest dreams…

Ha, nearly fell of my chair going over the prices, stats at 2200 up to 6600..

I can’t leave, I get a some what demented thrill when some one gets smoked, especially if they are the schooled..

A few hotties just sat beside me, trying to see what I’m writing.. Get your own ideas bitches….

A full report after its over….

#23 jimmy on 12.05.14 at 8:07 pm

Men in Black has got to be one of the best for a bug’s encounter with a windshield.

#24 Bill Gable on 12.05.14 at 8:08 pm

THE NEW BEVERLY HILLS: RIYADH OVERRUNS RODEO DRIVE –
(*And people in Dampcouver think the money is coming to this place – oh, and you should have seen the Chinese swarming Paris).

“I’ll take that one,” said a Saudi Arabian royal, pointing down from a helicopter while with his realtor on an aerial tour over Beverly Hills’ tony Trousdale Estates. He was picking out a massive 11,000-square-foot estate (complete with pool, picturesque views and two acres of property) — before stepping one foot inside the off-market listing, which was then home to Mary Hart and Burt Sugarman. Instead, according to property records, he paid north of $27 million from the sky to get the couple, who had lived there 25 years, to move out in three weeks so he and his family could celebrate Ramadan in their new digs (once owned by Elizabeth Taylor), says a source close to the owners.

Across town, a woman mulled over a coveted Celine trapeze bag that had just been placed on a Barneys shelf. “You’d better make up your mind fast,” a clerk warned. “If you don’t, within 15 minutes 15 Chinese ladies will snap up all 15 of these bags” at $2,500 a pop.

Welcome to the new Beverly Hills, where an influx of chopper-chartering, cash-flashing, uber-monied visitors from Saudi Arabia and China are making a huge splash while stuffing the coffers of real estate agents, restaurants, hotels and luxury retail outposts. These MMTs (Major Moneyed Tourists) are the new wave of Golden Triangle VIPs, supplanting the Japanese and Russians who had been pervasive spenders in the 90210 for years.”

Link: http://tinyurl.com/mfpmy2f

#25 For those about to flop... on 12.05.14 at 8:09 pm

Cato….take a chill pill……seriously.

#26 NetNet on 12.05.14 at 8:10 pm

Hold on: Jobs report wasn’t so great after all

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102243878

The US is incrementally rebounding. How is that not obvious? — Garth

#27 Vancouver right? on 12.05.14 at 8:13 pm

Why does Victoria get so much mention here? Yes it’s slow there just likes it’s residents, it’s a retirement community where hotels and resorts have been closing shop since 2008, ever heard of bear mountain golf and resort? It’s changed hands so many times it’s lost it’s touch , it’s 200 dollars to take the ferry to the island round trip…connection? Sink your teeth into vancouver Garth and bring us some stories of cracks forming here, you’ve picked all the low hanging fruit a long time ago

#28 Smoking Man on 12.05.14 at 8:15 pm

So I’m scanning the room trying to determine who out of this lot will hit it big… Get the book published, buy the mansion, become a control Freek, asking yourself why my freinds changed…

First speaker up a bald dude.

#29 Fed-up on 12.05.14 at 8:22 pm

“Last month we lost 45,600 private sector jobs, while government added 22,600.”

Sickening. Canadians have no business criticizing countries/economies like Greece and Cyprus. We are no different.

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.14 at 8:23 pm

@#8 cato the effluent

“how can you say the ‘deniers’ are wrong?”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I think YOU should have your own blog where evenmoreconspiracytheorists can comment.

#31 Prairieboy43 on 12.05.14 at 8:25 pm

I am sad to see this bull run end for the oil producers, services. Sold my drilling service business this past spring. Had a suspicion something was coming. The oil prices may take a long time to come back, time will tell. In the meantime I will keep my eyes/ears open for quality opportunities. Have to figure out who new customers will be two years down the line. The big boys will survive, however many juniors will become economic history. As for housing Investments. I am not a fan. Did that, did not like half of my tenants. Some I ran off, when they did not pay. Was not pretty scene. Hate going to court, however it was worth it. Going to court scars you. You develop character.

#32 BC_Doc on 12.05.14 at 8:30 pm

The US dollar and S&P 500 have been on a tear– it’s been happy times for anyone holding US market ETFs.

The TSX hasn’t even offered up a two-bagger since March 2009 (versus the US three-bagger). With oil in the boot and bank profits fading fast, it looks like some pain in the future for the TSX. Forecasting the stock market is about as accurate as reading tea leaves. That said, they’re may be some great buying opportunities ahead in Canada.

#33 Roy on 12.05.14 at 8:30 pm

The ‘wow’ jobs report. As in ‘wow’ where’s the middle class?

Sears to accelerate closings, shutter 235 stores
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102237069

Sears and Kmart to vaporize by 2016

#34 BC_Doc on 12.05.14 at 8:32 pm

“They’re” should be “there.” Ugly grammar. The old grade school nuns would beat me if they ever saw that!

#35 Market Man on 12.05.14 at 8:35 pm

# pravchaw

This correction is different
From the early 90s till now the interest has been going down
In the next ten years rates will be flat or higher.

We now could have higher unemployment and rates.

#36 Suede on 12.05.14 at 8:38 pm

The best indicator of a recovering US economy is very easy.

Check out prices for flight/hotel for Las Vegas. Been going the last 4 or so years.

2011 – Encore Hotel & Flights $1200
2012 – Aria Hotel & Flights $1700
2013 – didn’t go
2014 – Encore Hotel & Flights $2200

Wake up people.

Prices go up when demand goes up. Demand goes up when people have money to spend.

Therefore (three dots in a triangle) America is likely past recovery and already in a boom.

#37 Suede on 12.05.14 at 8:38 pm

note prices are for a couple. I bring sand to the beach.

#38 Retired Boomer - WI on 12.05.14 at 8:38 pm

Garth-

Somehow, I can picture that Boomer and his spouse shedding the bonds of employment without fully doing the math required and crashing (splat) onto the windshield of reality! No, not a very enviable picture there.

There still might be escape for the house indebted in 416 but, I fear the other locations are well past their “Best By Dates” that said, a steep enough discount can extricate nearly any idiot from a property their new circumstances can not afford. The real problem is Boomers have a genetic defect that fails to recognize reality.

Perhaps it was in those things smoked, or ingested by many back in the 60’s-70’s can’t prove that, but I have my suspicions.

In the interim let us see what the millennial’s can perform.
Maybe they can ‘help’ -or teach- mom and dad?

#39 bubu on 12.05.14 at 8:57 pm

$60k is nothing in Edmonton or Calgary… Back to last year prices…. or you work one more year instead to retire next year… Risk is there but as always, things will be ok in AB.

Have you ever heard of the word ‘average’? — Garth

#40 james on 12.05.14 at 9:14 pm

I am very interested in seeing data from holiday season retail sales in Canada. I recall being in a couple of malls a couple of years ago, before I relocated to the USA, and they were not exactly booming. Retail sales data confirmed my observations.

Target evidently didn’t do any research on the state of Canadian retailer or the debt levels of Canadian consumers. I think that it ranks alongside Napoleon’s invasion of Russia in terms of idiocy.

#41 the Jaguar on 12.05.14 at 9:15 pm

By the way, guess where the greatest demand for new debt has been coming from?

Not sure you gave us the answer to that one, Garth, but I am going to guess it’s Alberta. ‘Go big or don’t go at all’ has always been somewhat of a provincial and personal motto for Albertans. Probably true.
Some might say that a downturn in the provincial economy will just flush out the undesirables and send them packing back to their previous locales. The roofing crews will head back to BC, the Newfies in Ft. Mac to the Rock, and the rest….wherever. They here in droves from all over the world. Don’t bet against the older Albertans, though. They know how to dig in when the time arrives.
About the big banks and cost cutting…I suppose they see it as an opportunity to shed dead wood, close doors in unprofitable locations, and invest in areas that are part of the new economy. Who needs bricks & mortar in small town Canada in the digital age, after all? Can anyone transfixed by their reflection in the glass of their smartphone complain? Isn’t living in the digital age what you wanted? What made you feel like the ultimate hipster? A temporary setback for the Big 5. They just write off the cost as a ‘restructure charge’ on their financial statements, send out a compassionate press release and then go back to the boardroom to plan the next conquest. After all…they are just big companies, like airlines or oil companies or auto manufacturers, etc. Just responsible to shareholders for increasing returns. Most of you on this blog own their shares in one way or another. So no crying in your hanky when they close the branch down the street from you in your small town in Ontario. The eastern provinces have a lot of small towns.

#42 Freedom First on 12.05.14 at 9:18 pm

The nice thing about being diversified, balanced, liquid, and debt free is the perception one has with what is going on in the world. Thanks Garth, for your unwavering sane financial guidance in a world full of financially insane citizens world wide who have recently been, or are about to be, financially bent over by their 1 a$$et leverage. Leverage is fun on the way up, on the way down, not so much. I never needed it, too high risk.

Sound financial principles used to manage money is always the wisest way to go. No exception. Centuries old adage: “To go all in is the act of a fool.” Sadly, many people who are aware of the wisdom of that adage simply ignore it, and do it, or, even worse, knowingly perpetrate the insanity of going all in by fleecing the fools who willingly do it. Garth has exposed many many many of the liars on his Blog. Who you gonna trust?

#43 joblo on 12.05.14 at 9:23 pm

Canada should just join the USA already.
It is so screwed.

#44 Mark on 12.05.14 at 9:26 pm

“$60k is nothing in Edmonton or Calgary…”

I beg your pardon? Its dramatically more than most working people in Edmonton or Calgary can save in even 2-3 years of work. Additionally, the $60k figure represented the drag against GDP from a reduction in sales volume (not even counting the ‘wealth effect’ going in reverse!), not the quantum of individual losses to individuals. Knock that much off of GDP, and that’s a lot of income that comes out of the system, and hence, isn’t available to service mortgages.

#45 takla on 12.05.14 at 9:26 pm

Im sure the next jobs report will reflect the lower oil prices as the oil/gas frackers will not be able to sustain production @ these prices leading to layoffs.Not to mention the extreme leverage these companys have taken out to get established and start production,There will be hurting banks.All this will way heavily with trickle down bankruptcys from everything from suppliers to truck sales ect ect.
lets face it garth the states has a bit of house appreciation room to build the next bubble after the last housing collapse but how long will that last?Theres a ceiling on pumping prices and increasing the cost of living on the minions….more boom and bust to come I guess

#46 Mark on 12.05.14 at 9:30 pm

“The TSX hasn’t even offered up a two-bagger since March 2009 ”

Don’t know why anyone would use the word ‘bagger’. Sounds very impolite. Anyways, the TSX is doing just fine, with earnings and earnings growth. And the P/E ratio is considerably less than the S&P500, with better growth prospects in Canada. There was fairly tight correlation coming out of the 2009 bottom between the S&P500 and the TSX, but in 2011/2012, things seriously de-correlated as the Fed used QE to create a stock and bond market bubble (which served to suppress the sort of assets the TSX is heavy into, such as gold mining equities).

As QE recedes and is unwound, it is likely that the S&P500 and the TSX will once again re-correlate, with some overshoot. My back-of-the-envelope calculation indicates that the TSX would need to rise roughly 100% to meet the S&P500’s valuation, or alternatively, the S&P500 would need to fall 50% to meet the TSX’s valuation. Overshoot would put the TSX even higher than such. The amount of value in the index is incredible at this point.

#47 mike in kelowna on 12.05.14 at 9:31 pm

Garth, not checked in for a while….been spending a lot of time in a monastery..Things are really starting to unravel economically. RE here in BC taking a real dump but realtors won’t admit it. Homeowners won’t either..Oil plunging and this will result in Canadian banks also getting very nervous if the price doesn’t recover. Otherwise banks will drop like a huge turd from a long legged cow!! Prices are going up all over…no inflation? …People getting laid off left and right…or is that right and left? Economy in US strong? No evidence. Birth death model so much BS…Should call it the BM model, i.e. bowel movement..Fed numbers always BS…You know that..Most new jobs in US are minimum wage.. 50 million in US on food stamps..Obama says he’s going to convert to Catholicism so that he can ask for forgiveness for how he screwed up the economy!! What’s this world coming to Garth? Next you’ll be recommending bomb shelters, survival food and ..ug.. gold..Yuk!! Have a good evening buddy!!

#48 Cato the Elder on 12.05.14 at 9:39 pm

Re: #30 crowded

Again, attacking me instead of addressing anything I’m saying.

From official statistics, because that seems to be all anyone believes:

Labor force participation down 11 million under Obama:

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t16.htm

50 million on food stamps (too poor to afford food):

http://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/pd/29SNAPcurrPP.pdf

Of the jobs that were added, most were low paid part time (first link is official stats, second link is a chart constructed from the data):

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-05/where-jobs-were-secretaries-waiters-retail-education-leisure-and-temp-help

US debt unsustainable:

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/45471

***********

There you go. All from ‘official’ sources (paid with government taxes). Of course, these STILL paint a rosy picture of everything, given that anything funded by government will be political in nature.

But, using critical thinking skills, which are sorely lacking in most, it becomes quite evident that the US is in big trouble.

As a result, Canada, who is attached at the hip, will be sinking with that ship. We need to loosen capital controls so our businesses and people can manoeuvre quickly when the time comes to severe a lot of our business relationships with a perennial debtor, for a new partnerships abroad (China, India, etc.).

#49 Spectacle on 12.05.14 at 9:45 pm

Vancouver right? on 12.05.14 at 8:13 pm
Why does Victoria get so much mention here? Yes it’s slow there just likes it’s residents, it’s a retirement community……… Sink your teeth into vancouver Garth and bring us some stories of cracks forming here,…..
*******************
I agree Vancouver right? 12.05.14 at 8:13 pm .
Victoria is a glas enclosed study for “Average Canada” . BC Legislature etc. . What happens there in Victoria/island is tea leaves for the rest of the country in many ways.

If anything, it speaks to the issue of how real estate diminishes in value in retirement communities ( read : Canada into the near future ).
So we’re now a 2 city game as far as real estate pricing goes. Should be clear as a windshield , of what’s to come…
8——-> SPLAT

#50 Godth on 12.05.14 at 9:50 pm

#49 Cato the Elder

http://tinyurl.com/magt36g

Any questions?

#51 omg the original on 12.05.14 at 9:50 pm

#8 Cato the Elder

Cato, Cato, Cato……..

…….as long as I have been watching the stuff economic,

……..and that goes back to the early 1980s,

……..there have been people saying the books are cooked, the numbers are faked and the markets are rigged,

……..and the US (the world) just keep rolling along,

……..so, Cato, just accept that things are not going to collapse into a sea of effluent,

……..things aren’t so bad,

……..if you got any money buy SPY and let it ride for the next couple of decades. You’ll thanks old uncle OMG.

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.14 at 9:54 pm

@#49 Cato the Excrutiating

“Again, attacking me instead of addressing anything I’m saying….”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
My….how ironic.
I say again.
Perhaps you should start your own blog so you can converse with your “deniers”.

#53 JO on 12.05.14 at 9:55 pm

Canada’s rate are much more likely to stay flat or go down.
2016 sees the loonie in the low 70s
Commodities will remain in major downtrends for At least 2 yes with maybe copper and uranium avoiding the worst
Yes usually our rates follow the U.S. But this is not ” normal times” – we are more likely to see a stagflationary environment with a deflationary house market

#54 Waterloo Resident on 12.05.14 at 10:02 pm

YOU CAN’T FIX STUPID.
here is an example:

I was talking to a lady about the crazy housing bubble here in Canada, about how a $1 Million dollar house would cost $5,000 per month to buy yet you can rent one for a lot less than that.

I wanted to see how crazy-in-love with houses most women are like and how bad they are at managing their finances or making financial decisions so I asked her a question. I asked her what would she do if she had the following choice:

Option 1) buy a $1 Million dollar house with a $5,000 per month mortgage for 25 years, where rates might go up dramatically and then you will have to pay $8,000 per month.

Option 2) rent the exact same house for only $1,000 per month (that’s not possible, but I was just making this price extremely low to see if she would go for it.) And the rent would stay fixed for the next 5 years and not go up more than 2% in any one year after that.
And with the other $4,000 per month we would invest our money in investments that would give us a 30% annual return.

GUESS WHICH ONE SHE WENT FOR?
You guessed it, she would rather buy than rent.

This is what she said:

((( ” I would rather pay for 25 years for my house so that I can have it after 25 years rather than just rent it. What I think about is not myself but my future, like for my children for example or for my loved ones. So that they can have something they can call home someday and they will remember me by as the one who work hard for them.
I learned one thing in this world, the only way we can live an eternal life in this world is not how much we feel good about ourselves but how we affected others life and give them blessing. If that happens they will remember us forever and that is the only time our lives live on forever even if we return to dust. “)))

————————–
As you can see from that, if you are trying to reason with today’s women about renting instead of buying, you might as well just shoot yourself in the head first and get the pain over with as soon as possible.

#55 Sheane Wallace on 12.05.14 at 10:02 pm

See what I mean? The deniers are desperate. And wrong again. — Garth
………………
Garth, if you take an average job from that report and live from it for a year I will agree with your view of US recovery. Interested?

#56 Cato the Elder on 12.05.14 at 10:03 pm

Re: #36 Suede

Not necessarily. If you inflate the currency, the nominal price goes up, while the real price goes down.

What does that mean?

For example: if you have 100$ chasing 10 goods in an economy, that values each good at 10$. If you double the ‘money supply’ (print/inflate), and there’s 200$ chasing the same 10 goods, they become 20$.

The number of goods has not changed (which reflects what the ‘real’ price level should be), but the nominal price has (from 10$ to 20$). Notice in this example you are not better off if you are earning fixed wages, which most people are. Prices rise faster than peoples wages.

Only bankers and associated industries benefit from massive money printing. They get access to printed money first, and can unleash it on the economy to chase all kinds of goods/services. By the time the average salaried worker receives their wages, prices have already gone up.

Now, demand may have gone up for that particular spot you travel to if it is a ‘high end’ destination. Again, this is because the rich get richer in an inflationary environment, while the poor/middle class suffers. So ‘real’ demand may in fact have gone up, but most of the price increases are probably as a result of inflationary pressure.

#57 Sheane Wallace on 12.05.14 at 10:10 pm

There will be no interest rate increases even if inflation hits double digit. It is impossible to increase interest rates, there would be countless excuses not to do it.
Poloz is already finding a new excuse due to oil price decline, tomorrow it would be oil price increase, then because the sky is blue, blah blah blah.

We ‘grow’ economy by burning savings and there is no turning back, the whole economy would implode.

As Garth said inflation is positive for growth so expect more of both. The problem is that all the central bankers moved are hedged and they have no choice but go with negative interest rates for a veeeeery long time other the whole system crashes.

If everything is fine with the economy let’s then remove rate suppression and let the markets decide on the price of money. Everything else is theft. It may be legal today, tomorrow, who knows?

#58 omg the original on 12.05.14 at 10:10 pm

#47 Mark
As QE recedes and is unwound, it is likely that the S&P500 and the TSX will once again re-correlate, with some overshoot. My back-of-the-envelope calculation indicates that the TSX would need to rise roughly 100% to meet the S&P500’s valuation, or alternatively, the S&P500 would need to fall 50% to meet the TSX’s valuation.
————

Well I got to give you credit, you do think about things.

Thing is though, scenarios like that only come true out of pure chance. The financial world is way too complicated for things to be that simple.

One or two years out the only thing I can guarantee you that most forecasts will be wrong and those that are right were lucky.

And the lucky ones are not right the next time around – look at the recent track record all the guys touted as calling the US housing bubble.

Nobody does ex-post analysis of forecast (at least they do not publicize them) – simply too depressing, especially if you are an econometrician.

#59 Obvious Truth on 12.05.14 at 10:11 pm

The TSX technicals look horrible. Financials are no exception. And it feels like it isn’t over for the energy sector. Market mechanics could crack these charts.

Us and can 30 year are diverging.

Statscan has been telling the story all year. Nothing surprising.

#60 Sheane Wallace on 12.05.14 at 10:11 pm

central bankers moves
and
otherwise, not other,
darn spellchecker.

#61 Cato the Elder on 12.05.14 at 10:13 pm

Re: #51 Godth

Peak oil is a myth. If supply dwindles, the price will rise, and more production will come online.

If supply dwindles to such a point where we will barely have any left, price will be so high that no one is using it.

That means Earth will never run out of oil.

That is, as long as market forces are allowed to function. I’m not discounting the ability of stupid governments to create perverse economic incentives that distort the marketplace. Meaning, subsidizing oil prices lower than where they should rationally be, which means too much of it is being used up relative to supply.

*************

Re: #52 omg

Perhaps everyone should have been listening to those people. It was salvageable at one point, no anymore.

It takes a long time to undermine a nation that was once as prosperous as the US. Over a hundred years of capital accumulation in the freest society on Earth.

But little by little, it was chipped away. How does one eat an elephant? One bite at a time.

The US passed the point of no return a while ago. Their debt is impossible to repay without a widespread collapse.

**************

Re: #53 crowded

Again, you prove my point.

At least when I discuss things with people I address it point by point.

You don’t even bother to review the data I presented, which is well within the confines of what you deem acceptable (government approved).

And yet, you have the gall to argue.

Funny, all I’m trying to do is help educate people on here. I’m trying to help them see what’s coming. I’m trying to make sure they are prepared for what happens next, and that they can take care of their families.

If you refuse to examine the information I set forth, I can’t force you.

#62 Real Tor on 12.05.14 at 10:13 pm

Toronto real estate showing no signs of slowing down. Not even close

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/high-park-home-goes-272000-over-asking/article21956423/

Sporadic bidding wars are no indication of a market’s overall health. — Garth

#63 omg the original on 12.05.14 at 10:16 pm

#50 Spectacle
Victoria is a glass enclosed study for “Average Canada”…….If anything, it speaks to the issue of how real estate diminishes in value in retirement communities
————————-

But to be clear Victoria is still grossly over valued – we are back to 2006 price levels, yes, but those are still at noise bleed valuations.

Especially in a city with no economy other than government and serving retirees.

Try finding a job here paying more than $10/hr if you do not have a graduate degree or professional designation.

#64 Ret on 12.05.14 at 10:17 pm

Ontario pension plan and carbon tax proposals being floated in this province should just about hollow out Ontario.

#65 gladiator on 12.05.14 at 10:20 pm

for those who are wondering what the answer to my question above is: it’s its azz.

On a different note: Garth, I wish I were as optimistic as you! I really do! 300k jobs created while 150k full-time ones lost; “not all are jobs cleaning toilets for minimum wage” while most of them are Secretaries, Waiters, Retail, Education, Leisure and Temp-Help ( http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-05/where-jobs-were-secretaries-waiters-retail-education-leisure-and-temp-help ) which are not that far from minimum wage; “People are working more than at any time since the spring of 2008” – have you seen the labor participation rate is close to its level from the 70’s?
I admire you for this optimism! Truly yours, g.

#66 Nomad on 12.05.14 at 10:20 pm

Investors are melodramatic on the banks. National Bank had a good quarter yet 10% off its peak in 3 weeks. Increased their dividend, now at 4%. something. That’s 10 times more post tax relative to ING. Inveeeeeest. Questrade has free to buy ETFs… stop surfing the net…inveeeeest.

Painted Ponies start running today! $PPY. Run little ponies! Run!

Not having a mortage = Cash flow = Can Invest on sell-offs => travel abroad and eat Anthony Bourdain style

Mortgage = No cash flow => Macaroni and no travelling (North Ontario doesn’t count)

#67 Basil Fawlty on 12.05.14 at 10:26 pm

95,000 Christmas delivery jobs. Will those still count in January?
U.S. economic data declined, other than the Hi Ho Silver jobs report. Not to mention, throughout the rest of the world.
One would think that people have lost their ability to think critically. For example, $60 oil, a high $ and the ongoing warning of higher interest rates in the US, are not harbingers of a better economy. There will be job losses associated with these factors, yet to even address some alternative points of view, gets one labelled as a doomer, or worse, the bottom dweller of western civilization, a bullion licker.
Johnny, you have been told a million times, quit licking your bullion.

#68 fred ferant on 12.05.14 at 10:29 pm

fire ants come in quarts??

#69 Marco on 12.05.14 at 10:35 pm

Thanks Garth another power punch.
I could never figure out the reasoning between the discrepancy of living cost, including mortgages between Seattle and Vancouver, as seen in the attached article. I mean heck we’re above New York. Considering Seattle has a more robust economy we should be at least on par with them. At least.
Cheers.
http://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Canada&city1=Vancouver&country2=United+States&city2=Seattle%2C+WA

#70 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 12.05.14 at 10:36 pm

#27 Vancouver, etc…

Yes, Vancouver is the biggest economic/social entity of BC’s life (the ACTUAL capital in reality) of this there is no doubt.

But, please, St. Garth of Mini-mercies, keeping mentioning us Victorians.

Why?

Because as the provincial government keeps winnowing away at our civil service ranks, businesses downtown continue to falter and die, and the Oak Bay Beach Hotel “crown” becomes sullied by, uck (!) a potential bankruptcy, what’s NEXT?

And end to afternoon teas and crumpets?

Will the strawberry and cream machines be offshored to China? Do THEY also like strawberries and cream? Oh, my!

Will the high and mighty STILL NOT be buying British-made cars?

We need our steady low dosage of elixors in order to maintain some hint of je ne sais quoi in the only graveyard in BC with a sonambulent business so-called district (high prices, marginal services) and “when was it you were leaving the Island? On the 5 o’clock ferry? So long…”

The OBBH story will be a long and interesting tale unless the local media types are cowed into silence with threats of not being invited to the next corporate Christmas party.

No kidding.

#71 Cow Man on 12.05.14 at 10:37 pm

Sir Garth:
I would believe Ross Kay before any US government jobs report. I am surprised that you can’t see through the US government BS. They need to raise interest rates in order to stave off massive inflation. The numbers are pumped to allow the Fed to raise rates.

#72 SWL1976 on 12.05.14 at 10:40 pm

#53 crowdedelevator

————————-

Most people here who contribute to this blog bring something to the table. Agree or disagree they bring pertinent information to the table. You however, rarely if ever bring anything to the table with the exception of childish name calling

#73 economictsunami on 12.05.14 at 10:50 pm

Positive headline jobs numbers? No doubt. When one looks under the hood though we begin to understand that more then just front running algo generating headlines are needed to sustainably drive an economy still overly reliant upon consumer/ business consumption.

Once you get past the +/- seasonally adjusted/, birth/death model generated franken-numbers, also taken into account US population growth data, a basic uninspiring picture develops.

The narrative continues to be that higher consumption from gasoline savingsis a economic panacea but fail to take into account that the ‘petro savings’ a more then just as likely to be diverted to places where inflation lives, such as food/ utilities & education etc.

The ‘You want fries with that?’ Jobs Report: Hold on, it wasn’t so great after all:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102243878?trknav=homestack:topnews:3

Many wear the stereotype “doomer” as a badge of honour; in the continuing fightagainst the statistical recovery, largely based upon Figures & Fairy dust…

#74 Smoking Man on 12.05.14 at 10:50 pm

Damn it was bloody good, amazing strategy to help the self employed, although not the kind of writing I’m interested in, but could be an explosive advantage for my son who graduated today as a rehab guru.. And the salesmen out in Halifax….

Definitely going to tell them to hook up with this firm.

As for me, Hunter S Thompson set the bar high.. I wana be higher.. Probably unatainable, but a hell of a lot of fun trying…

I ended up at the bar, after the first break.. Seams that always happens when I go to these things…

#75 Keith on 12.05.14 at 10:54 pm

Sad to hear about the Oak Bay Beach hotel. I had a few drinks in the pub many years ago before moving away. It was a very typical Oak Bay/Victoria kind of business, evolving rather than changing, local clientele. Too bad the owners had bad timing on the real estate market, they took their shot and it didn’t work out. Pretty amazing they got the zoning in that municipality in the first place, nobody living in Oak Bay wants anything to change. Ever ….

#76 ronh on 12.05.14 at 11:10 pm

#40 John

The November Brisbane G20 banking rules now require that all 20 countries tighten up their bank rules to require higher deposits on hand so that every bank can survive a “30 day bank run” or “30 days of financial turmoil”. Their words not mine.

IF what you said is true, then there is a problem. Banks need higher deposits on hand so there can be a bail-in.
Deposits are the opposite of debt. Too much debt then no deposits. Are “they” prepping for something? Again a big IF.

#77 45north on 12.05.14 at 11:11 pm

james : Target evidently didn’t do any research on the state of Canadian retailer or the debt levels of Canadian consumers. I think that it ranks alongside Napoleon’s invasion of Russia in terms of idiocy.

well obviously his invasion of Russia was ill considered. I guess in his mind he was always the conquering emperor – good pay but it’s not steady

The Jaguar : The eastern provinces have a lot of small towns.

but no jaguars

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaguar

#78 chapter 9 on 12.05.14 at 11:22 pm

My son in law got laid off today. Journeyman electrician working for a fabricating company that manufactured components that went to Ft.Mac. Worked there nearly six years and made incredible money. Did they buy into the big mortgage, big truck payments, living beyond their means- no, cause he knew at some point the music will stop. To-day was the day!!

#79 BlackDog on 12.05.14 at 11:24 pm

@Cato The Elder #8

Everyone has an agenda.

#80 Smoking Man on 12.05.14 at 11:33 pm

Although I could do a mini autobiographical sort of thing. How an un schooled went from being a kick ass rivet bucket, to self made zillionaire, owning and selling small businesses who after retirement at 50 chose to be a slave at the tax farm to save his liver.. And keep his bottle time limited…

But then, I would be called to do seminar speeches, for crazy money… No, too much work…

Life is perfect right now…

#81 the Jaguar on 12.05.14 at 11:35 pm

#78 – 45 North.

Yes, of course no Jaguars. Not a hospitable climate. And why hang back with the brutes?
6 1/2 years there was enough for any Jaguar.

#82 Godth on 12.05.14 at 11:37 pm

#62 Cato the Elder

yeah, you don’t have the first clue about peak conventional oil. I just gave you the first clue.

#83 Cato the Elder on 12.05.14 at 11:39 pm

Re: #56 and #58 Sheane

We seem to be some of the few that actually understand what the role of ‘money’ is in an economy.

Every transaction that people make involves money. If the value of money is improper, there will be distortions in the marketplace.

I think your idea of letting the market decide interest rates is a good one. In a free society, that would be the case.

Of course, we don’t live in a free society. A truly free society would really expose people to what they’ve been living under. There would be a lot of shock, and almost ‘withdrawal’ like symptoms as all the thing they’ve come to believe over a lifetime were overturned.

#84 Charles Ponzi on 12.05.14 at 11:40 pm

The vast majority of new US jobs since 2008/9 have come from energy- and related industries, which makes them a dangerously endangered species now oil prices or down 40% and falling.

#85 Nemesis on 12.05.14 at 11:41 pm

#Bugs… #Windshield… #”TellMeAboutIt”… #MeanWhile,UpInLowEarthOrbit… #SnippetsFromISS…

http://youtu.be/rc10ztBjrFg

[NoteToGT: …”…swanky boutique hotel in Victoria’s iconic Oak Bay…”… Strictly between the two of us, AuldPol – I have two rather ribald and highly personal tales to share with you about the original establishment they so callously demolished to make way for that wretched TimeSharing monstrosity… Oddly, both stories ended rather well, as it happens. Just lucky, I guess…]

#86 Entrepreneur on 12.05.14 at 11:56 pm

We all know the government needs to be downsized; we know that we cannot sustain ourselves the way we are heading; we know the system has to be corrected. So, Cato the Elder, how to we do it? Do we go the way of Ron Paul’s method?

When Ron Paul was running for president his speeches made sense to me. I would have voted for him. I knew he would not get in because he spoke too softly, the same with Al Gore (one of the reasons). I think the States missed two great opportunities to correct itself and the world with it.

#87 Canadian in Portland on 12.06.14 at 12:03 am

Can confirm: America is back to work

Over the last year, I have been approached periodically about working for one company or another. From intel to retail, everyone is hiring again. Being a student, I can unfortunately only work on campus, but the demand for skilled labour posted on the job boards, and at the job fairs is obvious. what was only a few spots and many applicants last year, is a complete turnaround to jobs offering all kinds of incentives just to hook applicants. And, you can supplement your income with uber, lyft, or airbnb without any harassment.

My friends at my old workplace in Vancouver all say they are grateful they haven’t lost their jobs yet….yet. Three of them are trying to leave but cannot sell their houses/apartment. Even if they could, there is no one across the country that they are hearing back from that is hiring.

My only concern here in America is how to get my investments out of Canadian dollars to avoid its impending slide

#88 J man on 12.06.14 at 12:04 am

Garth, why don’t you spend the same amount of time and effort qualifying the US employment numbers as you do the Canadian RE #’s. I don’t argue your Canadian claims of RE overvalue but your view of the US in light of the facts seems well…”fanciful”…at best. This has me concerned as to the substance of the claims AND the motivations. So you believe the US is somehow part of some renaissance whilst the rest of the world burns. Of course the US is above all corruption and manipulation and world politics and economics. I will say this much. You have more confidence than I dear sir! I am part of one key industry of which the US doth partake and I can speak to how the tend to “exaggerate” the truth. If someone will listen and buy stock its all good eh;)

#89 Andrew Woburn on 12.06.14 at 12:10 am

Is this the future of music or the future of work?

Meet Hatsune Miku, Japan’s holographic rockstar. Has she joined the musician’s union?

http://www.theguardian.com/music/2014/dec/05/hatsune-miku-japan-hologram-pop-star

#90 Sparky55 on 12.06.14 at 12:12 am

#11 gladiator on 12.05.14 at 7:45 pm

What’s the last thing that goes through a bug’s mind when it hits the windshield?
****************************
The windshield wiper?

#91 J Strummer on 12.06.14 at 12:13 am

The biggest US growth activity seems to be rioting….luckily the Canadian weather keeps local anarchists in check…..just need to be careful during that 4 week northern summer, when the sheeple (and mosquitos) emerge from their ubermortgaged dens of debt…vive la revolution!

#92 Cato the Elder on 12.06.14 at 12:18 am

Re: #83 Godth

I know enough about economics that it’s nothing to worry about.

If oil becomes too scarce, prices rise, more production comes online OR viable alternatives come online. It’s very simple.

As long as the government butts it’s damn nose out, these processes will take place. The market will resolve all ails as long as the profit mechanism is preserved.

Free markets are a beautiful thing and no government, no matter how powerful, can ultimately undermine it’s corrective actions. Prices are the ultimate dictator that can not be overruled.

But I’m not so sure oil IS running out…I think the big oil companies want to perpetuate this myth that oil is running out to squeeze prices.

Many of the big players collude, perhaps not overtly, but they do collude to keep only a certain amount of production online at any given time.

I have doubts that oil is even solely a ‘fossil fuel’. There is a lot of evidence substantiating that oil may also be ‘abiogenic’. Now, I readily admit that this is just a theory, but it is compelling. I think that there is just as much evidence supporting this as there is for the ‘fossil’ origin.

For start, how many organisms would it take to create just 1 of the supermassive oil fields in Saudi Arabia?

The idea that layer upon layer of organic tissue settled on top of each other without decomposing with enough time to form oil is far-fetched. You can’t even look at the amount of oil there to get an idea – a droplet of oil would supposedly be derived from a significantly higher volume of organic mass/volume because oil is ‘concentrated’.

So you’d have to take the oil field and multiply it’s volume by a factor of hundreds, maybe thousands, to get a sense of how many organisms it would have taken to form. The idea that this happened without decomposition or other natural processes taking place seems absurd.

Another piece of evidence corroborating the abiogenic theory of oil is many formerly ‘depleted’ oil wells have filled themselves up again. How would this be possible if there was only a limited amount of organic material with which to work? However, it makes sense if oil is the product of natural Earth processes.

It’s logical again to surmise that big oil companies would want to promote the notion that oil is limited because it isn’t supplied from natural Earth processes, but by a limited number of already dead organisms. This would help substantiate the narrative that oil is limited, and it’s price must be high. A higher price thus allows them to earn more money for a product that is really theoretically much more abundant than widely believed.

I think oil may be derived biologically or abiogically through natural Earth processes. I think there’s a lot more on this planet than people realize.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Are-Oil-Wells-Recharging-Themselves.html

#93 Paul on 12.06.14 at 12:18 am

#76 Keith on 12.05.14 at 10:54 pm

Wait till the new postal boxes start showing up on the front boulevards.

#94 Helen on 12.06.14 at 12:25 am

The USA population is over 319 MILLION. Canada’s population is a mere 35 Million, less then the entire state of California. Perspective.

#95 Spectacle on 12.06.14 at 12:38 am

Very nicely done Sir Garth.

Re:
#64 omg the original on 12.05.14 at 10:16 pm
#50 Spectacle
Victoria is a glass enclosed study for “Average Canada”…….If anything, it speaks to the issue of how real estate diminishes in value in retirement communities
————————-

But to be clear Victoria is still grossly over valued – we are back to 2006 price levels,

Especially in a city with no economy other than government and serving retirees.

Try finding a job here paying more than $10/hr if you do not have a graduate degree or professional designation.
************************
Elegantly written #64 OMG !

I wantedd to avoid doomer cliches on here. Yes, full agreement with your analysis as well.

Although things are not always that bad, we make our own wise and intelligent decisions, to keep it that way.

Anyone buying for the future investment , in the island or victoria market is making a strange mistake ( or missed this blog ).

I just didn’t want to troll for drama. Thnx for your intelligent summary.

Ps: poor guys in vancouver are paying 14 -19 an hour for some construction / renovation jobs! Wow, there went our labour paid , future real estate buyers?

Regards

#96 JSS on 12.06.14 at 12:41 am

This week was a great time to pick up some undervalued Canadian bank shares. BMO, CIBC, and National Bank each increased their dividends.

Also, Enbridge increased their dividend by 33%.

these are all great buy-and-hold stocks.

#97 dd on 12.06.14 at 12:55 am

Beach hotel was driven into the ground because of city council. Took years for the numb tits to approve. the guy sound have really just sold to jawals or a more experienced developer

#98 Smoking Man on 12.06.14 at 12:56 am

#163 80’sKid6$4 on 12.05.14 at 8:30 pm
#161 Smoking Man
Ok Smoking Man, your dentist, accountant, doctor, engineers are all over educated fools incapable of independent thought. But you sir (and your son) have the world by the balls. Kudos!

Share your comment:
……….

You have so much to learn, the occupations you mentioned are no more difficult than a good finishing carpenter or a stone Mason… But the associations that control those occupations curb the supply via partnerships with the educational industrial complex, insuring they are always in demand.. Supply and demand, if you restrict supply, the value goes up.

You’ve been hood winked.. But your programing forbids you to see it… We’re all the same, they only difference between a brain surgeon and a homeless bastard is self esteam..other than that… The Same container.

#99 Spectacle on 12.06.14 at 12:59 am

One last point. For OMG#59 the Original . Helps support your thesis !

OMG : this adds to your points to #59 tonight.
Blog dogs, no matter how bad things get………

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=U2lSZPTa3ho

#100 Sukham on 12.06.14 at 1:10 am

Garth,

All this is so enlightening. I really admire how you stay focused and share your perspective.

So, most of the theory is against buying at the moment. Is there no price range where you can buy? and still afford the shock you may experience with expected rise in rates? Mostly you have talked about Vancouver real estate, how about Surrey and Delta. Real estate in Surrey and Delta is still affordable compared to Vancouver or Richmond.

I am torn between buying or renting at the moment. I can do 10% down for a $5.50k house and may still be able to pay for it besides all the forthcoming rates changes or price crash (which haven’t been confirmed yet). However, now I feel that it may be a mistake. If I plan to rent a townhouse for $1500 pm+ utilities, I may very well buy it.

I will keep educating myself by reading your articles and hopefully will make an informed decision.

#101 Sebee on 12.06.14 at 1:21 am

#11 gladiator on 12.05.14 at 7:45 pm

What’s the last thing that goes through a bug’s mind when it hits the windshield?

> I wish I was the windshield.

#102 Cici on 12.06.14 at 1:32 am

I agree with #2 Eric West.

Thanks for all of the great advice and counsel Garth. Your blog is as hilarious as it is informative, and I wish there were more people like you on this planet ;-)

#103 Christopher Lackey on 12.06.14 at 1:36 am

If you look at a 20 year chart of annualuzed returns, energy is right near the top at around 12%. Right there with us stocks and the s&p. Moving down the list, canadian equities clock in at about 8, gold maybe 7-9, bonds 6 , real estate 5, etc.

The only thing the average investor outperforned with his whopping
1.7 % annualized return was cash and japan.

I cant call the bottom but im pretty sure the smart money will not abandon oil for good

So yes, oil is in a scary place. Xeg (the tsx energy index) has 58 constituents, and clearly the declines of 40-75% in some of those, excessiveleverage and payout ratios in excess of 120% for others, will not be without consequences.

But this is where we hit capitulation, the average investor choking and giving up and chasing yesterday s returns, probably in tech or health care or places like that. I cant call the bottom, but im pretty sure smart money will not be abandoning oil for good.

#104 TheLeastInterestingManInTheWorld (Stay delusional my friends) on 12.06.14 at 3:00 am

Man I love Cato, remember when he would rush down the stairs taking about four at a time and then kick the shit out of those six or eight guys who had the Green Hornet tied up? Oh never mind different Cato that one was far more realistic but it was a pretty good tv show for it’s time. Love Bruce Lee.

There was always an amount of conspiracy theory in this comment section but since the appearance of one fool it’s like it opened the floodgates. Yet these people claim to be individual thinkers while parroting the crap you can find on any conspiracy theory website. They rail against the government yet use the government figures to support their arguments, despite saying the government is lying.

We definitly don’t live in a perfect world but if we lived in the one some of you fools propose you would soon find out why some of these rules were instituted and you would be the first and loudest to whine for them because you were being mistreated.

Anyway Garth I’d like to nominate your blog – comment section – for yet another award. This one would be for the most delusional comments section. I have to warn you though there are plenty of conspiracy theory sites out there (that could be construed as a hint for some of you) and youtube has some incredibly foolish and vulgar comments so I don’t know that you can win this one. Something to think about anyhow.

Oh and for the one response I saw to the Equifax assertion about where the debt is coming from, mortgage, mortgage would be the answer but thanks for playing.

Amazing how so many of you come here daily, read the post, miss the point or just come to proliferate your view of the topic reguardless of lack of knowledge. It is great when you back it up with a link to a conspiracy themed website though, acting as though that were proof. Seriously, seek some professional psychiactric help.

#105 higher on 12.06.14 at 3:26 am

My bank raised my interest rate on loc by 20% this week, Poloz won’t raise rates the banks already are, people have pigged out on debt and now it’s time to pay the piper. Bank stocks will do just fine!

#106 Gtrz4peace on 12.06.14 at 4:14 am

Garth and everyone, we are FROM the US.

And we are from “working people.” For better or worse, we are not the wealthy on this blog. About the US “jobs” recovery:

You do not need to be a “doomer” to see that inequality is actually GROWING in the US. Jobs for people over 50, jobs for people graduating college and living in their US parents’ basements — unfortunately those are actually mostly “temp” and “McJobs”. They are NOT jobs that will “rebuild” the middle class that the US Republican Congress will now do its best to continue to destroy.

Wish it were otherwise. Garth, spend some time walking the “mean streets” of Chicago, New York or LA. Let alone the smaller cities! Talk to people who are really out beating the pavement or trying to survive on this “jobs recovery” cause you may revise your view a bit.

This does not mean that the US is not in better shape now than under Bush, of course it is. At least there is a President with half a brain in his head economically, so some things have been accomplished and should not be discounted.

But who knows what happens once it’s The Republican Stooges and “A Governmenting we will go”.

#107 NEVER GIVE UP on 12.06.14 at 4:28 am

#10 Ford Prefect on 12.05.14 at 7:43 pm

I agree, Harper and his crony capitalists have sold us out. One thing I have learned over the years is that all politicians have a “GET ELECTED AT ALL COSTS” mentality.
Without power you are a nothing burger on the back bench wrong side of the house.
Forget about doing the right thing. Its all about getting elected.
This is why we need DIRECT DEMOCRACY. Like the Swiss.

#108 Gtrz4peace on 12.06.14 at 4:30 am

#70 Marco

Discrepancy possible explanation:

Seattle is a city under basically sane government. People who might almost be called “socialists” because the mentality is more of a “we” mentality. Seattle residents value their environment, voted the highest minimum wage in the US into law, and Washington State legalized cannabis to stop jailing people and start reaping financial benefits from it.

So they are pretty progressive.

Vancouver has a faux government of “BC Liberals” who are simply the worst right-wing Republican ideologues, along with Stephen Harper — and they are doing everything possible to make this city uninhabitable for anyone but the very wealthy who support their environmental rape agenda, and to destroy public education, defund the healthcare system – the list goes on unfortunately.

They are trying their best — but many of us in Vancouver are here to try and make sure they will not succeed. So time will tell.

The policies of the BC Neoliberals destroy diversity in communities. Businesses may choose not to relocate to BC because employees want to live where they can afford a home for their families. There are many repercussions of these policies.

Now we can add to the silliness the destruction of BC’s world-famous park system, soon to be the playground for pipeline spills and fracking chemical pollution.

Vancouver needs to be more like Seattle in many ways, besides home prices. Period.

#109 jane24 on 12.06.14 at 4:34 am

Boomers upsizing when they should be downsizing is the bit I don’t get. Figure out that with the kids gone you need 2 bedrooms and not 5 and cruise on the rest of the money. Big homes have big bills – why then increase your outgoing while decreasing your income!!!!

We have found that it is far cheaper to run a small house now and then those two times a year that everyone is home, stick the overflow into a local B&B. This way adult children have privacy too on their at home holiday.

I had the Chinese horde experience when I was in Hong Kong recently for a weekend. Shopping cruise ships dock at HK harbour and they pour off and straight into the harbour malls. They do indeed strip everything bare and really annoy the HK Chinese locals doing so. I saw what they call mainland Chinese lined up in a queue, in the rain to buy designer $15,000 US handbags and each brought armfuls to re-sell back home. I actually talked to a few and they said that they trust the brands in HK to be the real thing where as back home brands are usually what they call copy-bags. So HK shopping is the thing to do. makes the HK Chinese feel like poor relations though. I can see why they are currently rioting.

#110 LP on 12.06.14 at 8:21 am

#55 Waterloo Resident on 12.05.14 at 10:02 pm

*****************
Don’t generalize like that! We’d be renting right now if my husband would only listen to reason.

#111 LL on 12.06.14 at 8:41 am

…”Okay, so I mentioned the US stats. Do not be deceived by the doomers who swear all the jobs are cleaning toilets for min wage at Taco Bell, that half the population is living on food stamps and the government’s lying anyway”…..

Bla…bla…bla…bla…Ya right! Paradise in USA!

Election are coming in USA, that’s why all numbers (job, etc..) looks so good!

#112 Jimbo on 12.06.14 at 9:17 am

I’ve always felt the Jobs report is a frankenmetric because it needs to be coupled with mean salary.

What is better for the economy?

10 jobs with a mean salary of 50000?
Or
11 jobs with a mean salary of 40000?

You decide.

#113 SWL1976 on 12.06.14 at 9:21 am

Garth, I love your optimism, it’s refreshing. I spend a lot of time looking at the other side of the coin and I do enjoy your view of things to come. I do like to keep my mind open. While I don’t particularly enjoy the subject of the take down of America and a one world government, it is a subject that does require some thought, some study, and some research, for it is a deviously clever plan. Studying this subject though has been and still is quite taboo amongst the masses and the MSM, there is no diploma, and no certificate to hang on the wall. Actually there is mostly shame, but I am not in it for the love or the money.

I appreciate how much you let us all share our thoughts and views on this pathetic little blog and it’s obvious that some of us are very passionate with what is happening in the world around us. Modern civilization is in quite a pickle right now, and while we and I did not put us here, we and I, and our children are going to be the ones to deal with it. Like you have been trying to awaken people to financial literacy, to which you have done and are doing a fine job Sir, there are some of us trying to awaken the masses to a new reality on the horizon.

I am not sure how I got into studying where we are at right now, but it has always fascinated me and lots of time it’s very upsetting and disturbing, but once you connect the dots it becomes very real. The problem is there are no stats, no real facts to check, but the truth is out there, its right here at all of our finger tips. I am not an overly educated man, just a blue collar worker who has been working in the trenches with the masses. You get a different perspective from down here. I have always been aware of my surroundings, the world around me, and am always curious about how things work. There’s more to the mystery every day and one would be a fool not to be diversified in all aspects of one’s life right now. For any day now we could have that oh crap moment I fear is closer than most of us can fathom

Thanks Garth, and thanks to all the blog dogs who make this pathetic blog so very interesting

#114 Dan on 12.06.14 at 9:53 am

A booming US economy with high inflation would be bullish for industrial metals like copper and silver, gold less so.

#115 Victor V on 12.06.14 at 10:05 am

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com/2014/12/05/with-traffic-ticket-revenue-down-by-30m-finger-pointing-starts&pubdate=2014-12-06

There’s an anticipated surplus of $98-million (on a $9.6-billion budget) in 2014, however, thanks largely to a hot housing market. The city is expected to smash its past record for money collected from the land transfer tax by reaping a whopping $425-million this year, it was revealed Friday. The projections had been $350-million. “Sales are up, as well as prices,” said Mr. Rossini. “But you know what, guys? That’s a good thing, having more money.”

#116 Jsan on 12.06.14 at 10:26 am

I’m sorry, but I am also one that doesn’t buy the “US Recovery” story. They may be treading water in my opinion but after 6 years of pumping Trillions into the markets, the economy, etc. US economic growth should be in the double digits yet it is still barely on life support. What are they going to do for a encore?? Remember Cash for clunkers? There many others. Have people been noticing the US subprime Auto loan bubble?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act_of_2009

The US is a country full of very intelligent people with great ideas. Unfortunately it’s generally only the consumer that gets the spinoff benefit from these ideas and inventions. The brunt of the manufacturing is overseas. This won’t change. Add to this a mounting avalanche of entitlements such as Heath, pensions, etc. that will continue to swell as the baby boomers begin to retire not to mention the end of their high paying careers and the loss of tax revenue that will come from that resulting in deeper and deeper government debt.

HOW, how can they get any sort of momentum going in the economy? I just don’t see it.

Mish Shedlock always does a good assessment of the latest US employment numbers. He is not a doom and gloomer yet he believes like others that the US unemployment rate is much more likely around 11.5% than the stated official number.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2014/12/nonfarm-payrolls-321k-unemployment-58.html

The America-bashing and negativity on this blog is always fascinating. “Still barely on life support.” Really? The best GDP growth in 10 years, best job growth in six years and the federal deficit at an 8-year low. All after ending government stimulus. No, it is not perfection. Yes, it is recovery. Stop wishing ill on the people posing the best chance for saving your economic ass. — Garth

#117 NoName on 12.06.14 at 10:40 am

#110 jane24

i am not chinese and i find this what you wrote very _________ (insert word here).
“I had the Chinese horde experience when I was in Hong Kong”
this is bad, very bad but funny…
“So HK shopping is the thing to do. makes the HK Chinese feel like poor relations though. I can see why they are currently rioting.”
what about poor souls that work for foxycon are they not chanise? and hk riots got noting to do with financial inferiority.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Hong_Kong_protests
“Umbrella Revolution(Chinese: 雨傘革命), began in September 2014 when activists in Hong Kong protested outside the Hong Kong Governmentheadquarters and occupied several major city intersections after China’s Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPCSC) announced its decision on proposed electoral reform.[5] In disallowing civil nominations,”

#118 dude on 12.06.14 at 10:52 am

When one uses the same method of calculating the Unemployment Rate the States use, Canada has the same UE rate

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.14 at 11:19 am

@#62 cato the Erronious
“If you refuse to examine the information I set forth,…”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Whats the pont of reading the same paranoid conspiracy drivel day after day. I have elevators to ride.

@#105 The least interesting man in the world

Excellent comments

#120 Funny that on 12.06.14 at 11:25 am

Cheer up Garth, don’t write us off yet.
Soon our economy will be hitching a ride on the coat tails of the all mighty US of A.
All aboard!!

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.14 at 11:26 am

@#53 SWL
Just because you’re a member of the Cato the Ectoplasm fan club still doesnt mean he isnt a delusional paranoid loon with fantasies of someday being the Supreme Overlord of the smouldering remnants of “the coming apocalypse”.
He’s crazy. Get over it.
Time for my coffee.

#122 Linda on 12.06.14 at 11:33 am

#79 Chapter 9 – your son in law is smart. Tell your daughter to hang onto that one. Harder than one might think to hold off on the purchasing of stuff. When my husband got a new job with a big salary increase his coworkers were expecting him (us) to immediately buy a second car. They were very surprised at our decision to stay as we were car wise. The fact we didn’t actually need a second car was not relevant – the idea was to ‘celebrate’ the income increase by immediately going into debt by buying a ‘trophy’ to commemorate the achievement. We still only own one car. Call me cheap, but I just can’t make myself go for a second car when one will do. We have even discussed the possibility of not owning a car at all upon retirement. Thanks to Car2Go we could have the best of both worlds….. car convenience when we need it but not having to carry the expense when our incomes are fixed.

#123 liquidincalgary on 12.06.14 at 11:45 am

#11 gladiator on 12.05.14 at 7:45 pm

What’s the last thing that goes through a bug’s mind when it hits the windshield?
****************************
The windshield wiper?

=========================================

it’s ass

#124 liquidincalgary on 12.06.14 at 11:48 am

cato the ‘tard says:

I think oil may be derived biologically or abiogically through natural Earth processes. I think there’s a lot more on this planet than people realize.

==========================================

ever wonder if ‘coast to coast am’ were just a four hour infomercial??

#125 liquidincalgary on 12.06.14 at 11:54 am

The America-bashing and negativity on this blog is always fascinating. “Still barely on life support.” Really? The best GDP growth in 10 years, best job growth in six years and the federal deficit at an 8-year low. All after ending government stimulus. No, it is not perfection. Yes, it is recovery. Stop wishing ill on the people posing the best chance for saving your economic ass. — Garth

=========================================

and actually, this year’s monthly average job growth, may be the best since 1999

#126 Dominoes Lining Up on 12.06.14 at 11:55 am

The way some people deliberately avoid the truth is amazing. So many deniers, whether it is real estate, climate change or loopy conspiracy nuts..

Putin’s new budget is based on $100 oil. (!!!!!!!!)

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/putin-signs-russian-budget-for-next-year-based-on-100-oil-price/512521.html

Garth, do you think he is getting someone from CREA or TREB to do his calculations?

(Russia could be a source of major global hell if this gets half as bad as it could for them.)

#127 Drill Baby Drill on 12.06.14 at 11:57 am

Dear Pathetic bloggers : I work for a company that has it’s main office in Houston Tx. They are hiring oil & gas and petrochem engineers at an unprecedented rate for the past year. They have an enormous backlog of process plant debotlenecking work to do. Much of this new work is due to pent up demand from several years of low plant investments. The job growth in the USA is much much more than Mcjobs.

#128 Drill Baby Drill on 12.06.14 at 12:02 pm

“GM planning on pulling out of Canada” was the headline in last week’s G&M. The quotes from the Canadian auto workers union leadership indicated to me the depth of their worry.

The initial indicators out of last week’s consumer spending numbers in the USA show that the much anticipated benefit from lower cost gasoline is not making it’s way to the shopping malls nor on-line stores.

#129 Retired Boomer - WI on 12.06.14 at 12:15 pm

Interesting week. Had to buy new tires for the car, after 70,000 miles they were rather worn out. As it has been awhile since I bought tires, I was rather pleasantly surprised at the price of 4 with the alignment etc. Under $500 US for premium 70K tires!

While we are seeing food prices rising, oil is down, utilities has been pretty flat, overall growth in the job sector IS evident. In a word, “things” seem better now than last year.

It is NOT perfect. It never WAS perfect. It appears those who wish to be employed ARE employed. Interesting, that the labor force participation rate is falling. Not a huge surprise, it has been falling since Reagan was president.
Now with the largest population block entering retirement -DUH- Boomers will affect this segment, like we affected every dam segment our whole lives. Cato, look at these stats over history.

I feel for those aged Boomers who still HAVE to work. I prefer the option of cocktails, or sweat. Cocktails are much more fun!

#130 Doug in London on 12.06.14 at 12:29 pm

@Ret, post #65:
You’re forgetting that everything goes full circle. Lower oil prices and a falling dollar are good news for Ontario and Quebec. The lower oil prices cut the cost of doing business, and the lower dollar is good for export businesses. The improving U.S. economy is also good news for exporters in these provinces.

The pension plan is probably a bad idea. A better idea would be legislation to make employer pensions more portable. As for the carbon tax, when it came into being in British Columbia the sky didn’t fall. Business continued on a usual.

#131 AudiBaby on 12.06.14 at 12:42 pm

Garth, I agree with you. I follow your blog from time to time. It is my first time to post. I am a Canadian living and working in San Diego. The American hating and bashing has to stop. The economy in the U.S. is on fire! People are not broke. People are spending and not on revolving lines of credit. I don’t know where my family is getting their information back home but the so called news they report hearing couldn’t be more wrong. It is like the news is only showing the extremes at the worst end of the spectrum when they report anything on the US. I have to admit that I absolutely LOVE living in the US. I love my country too but I find people here are not nearly as passive aggressive in the name of being “nice” as they are back in Toronto. I have been welcomed here with open arms. Sure, the US has it’s problems but honestly I don’t see them as any worse than the socio-economic issues in Canada. Unbelievably so to many I think I see greater gaps in income disparity overall in Toronto than I see here in SD. In reality Americans earn a lot more than Canadians when you compare like jobs. Americans have a lot more expendable income than Canadians too. I’ve used the healthcare system here and it is indeed top shelf. You cannot be turned away if you have no insurance. Shootings don’t happen daily in front of my home. I feel extremely safe here. I often shake my head in embarrassment when on occasion my American friends ask me why Canadians dislike Americans so much. I think it has to do with a chip on our shoulder and in the constant shadow of the US. Maybe a bit of an inferiority complex? As for the job reports I would tend to believe it because I know of nobody and I mean nobody who is looking for work. If you want a job you can find a job in the US.

#132 Basil Fawlty on 12.06.14 at 1:10 pm

“Yes, it is recovery. Stop wishing ill on the people posing the best chance for saving your economic ass. — Garth’

Garth, why do you continually bring out the “hate”, or “wishing ill” meme when bloggers point out problems with the US economy?
Yet, you continually bash Canadian real estate. Is this not “wishing ill” on Canadians?

On this blog there is no opportunity for a rational discussion of the US economy. One either drinks the rose coloured Kool-aid, or is repeatedly negatively labelled. This negative labelling is a propaganda technique.

#133 Godth on 12.06.14 at 1:14 pm

#93 Cato the Elder
What a load of drivel that was.

EROI – energy return on investment. Money doesn’t create oil, it’s the other way around.

If there’s so much conventional oil (EROI 100:1) then why is the US fracking (5:1?) and Canada steaming sand (5:1).

#134 Jsan on 12.06.14 at 1:17 pm

I’m sorry, but I am also one that doesn’t buy the “US Recovery” story. They may be treading water in my opinion but after 6 years of pumping Trillions into the markets, the economy, etc. …………

The America-bashing and negativity on this blog is always fascinating. “Still barely on life support.” Really? The best GDP growth in 10 years, best job growth in six years and the federal deficit at an 8-year low. All after ending government stimulus. No, it is not perfection. Yes, it is recovery. Stop wishing ill on the people posing the best chance for saving your economic ass. — Garth

=====================================

America bashing is the absolute furthest thing from my mind. I love the US and Americans however I think the economic policies of their Central Bank and politicians have done more to push the country into economic malaise than if they had just left it alone and let the free market work the way it is supposed to work.

Since when does a culture of bailing out failed banks (due to really poor business decisions and risk taking) and businesses ever work in the long run? They are failing because they have poor business models and/or leadership. Propping them up is not the solution.

In my opinion (which I am sure you will disagree with), a large part of the last 20 years of growth in the West can be attributed to a huge spike in easy credit and debt both personal and government. The easy trick anytime your economy slowed was to offer more credit and take on more debt. This always gave the economy a nice little sugar hit. I feel that there is very little left to power the economy in that regard anymore. C’mon, take away the easy credit here in Canada and just how much growth would we have seen in the housing market and the subsequent construction industry? Take away the bubble growth in the Canadian housing market and how much would the economy have lost from the money spent thanks to the “Wealth Effect” from everyone becoming house “rich”. Take away the Canadian housing bubble, take away the oil/oil sands growth and Canada would be in a mess of economic hurt. We pat ourselves on the back for our economic “miracle”, yeah some miracle.

6 years of zero percent interest rates and never seen before record low bond yields are still suggesting the economy has little strength to do much of anything on it’s own. 7 TRILLION, I repeat….TRILLION…. dollars of debt added to the US books just during the Obama administration alone. From the 1960’s on the US has only had 5 years where there was a Federal surplus. 4 of those years were in the late 90’s thanks to the Internet/tech revolution. The best federal surplus the US has ever had in their history was in the year 2000 and that was only around 250 Billion and that was coming off a couple of years of some of their highest GDP growth. Since than it has been year after year of deficits and since 2008, staggering deficits. How can they ever pay this debt down? Can they ever raise rates without tipping the economy again or crushing themselves in debt servicing costs??

I sure hope I am wrong (I can’t stress this enough) and you are right as I would love to be getting some nice returns on safe bond investments. I could retire at an early age, but I am just not as optimistic as you are about how everything will transpire.

BTW, I don’t own any Gold and I don’t own a Fallout shelter or plan to build one.

#135 Fortune500 on 12.06.14 at 1:37 pm

Anyone signing the petition? Only 999,994 signatures short …

http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/boycott-the-canadian-housing-market

#136 SWL1976 on 12.06.14 at 1:38 pm

#122 crowdedelevator

————————————–

Right back to my point in #73 SWL1976

Now how about something interesting???

#137 Cato should start a bank on 12.06.14 at 1:46 pm

then he could issue mortgages and loans by typing numbers into a computer….because that’s reality folks

#138 not 1st on 12.06.14 at 2:07 pm

I don’t see how canada can really benefit from a US resurgence. They have their own oil now and everything else is made in china.

Canada is probably destined to muddle in the middle between asia and the US like we have been. Probably not a bad place to be I guess.

Over 70% of our exports go south. Stop making things up. — Garth

#139 Lillooet, BC on 12.06.14 at 2:17 pm

With all the new jobs created in the US, gasoline consumption will rise eventually leading to higher oil prices. What do Americans do when they get money? They buy gas-guzzlin’ Hummers, SUVs, pickup trucks, motorhomes …

Gasoline demand has little if any bearing on oil pricing. – Garth

#140 kastis on 12.06.14 at 2:39 pm

I would like to ask everybody’s opinion. At work I can contribute certain amount extra to my Pension Plan and the company will match that. Is it better to contribute that amount to TFSA or to pension plan and get matched by company ? lets assume that investment type and returns would be equal
thank you

#141 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.14 at 2:40 pm

@#137 SWL1976
“Now how about something interesting???”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You mean like THIS ?

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&sqi=2&ved=0CCMQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fi100.independent.co.uk%2Farticle%2Fthe-internets-seven-most-sinister-conspiracy-theories–l1dIS7Et0&ei=HUyDVOS9LciCoQTb1YLoBg&usg=AFQjCNHIguBr9yQEph1gkVap6WhEBQEF8Q&bvm=bv.81449611,d.cGU

or THIS?

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&sqi=2&ved=0CB0QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fmashable.com%2F2014%2F04%2F28%2Fconspiracy-theories%2F&ei=HUyDVOS9LciCoQTb1YLoBg&usg=AFQjCNHqxmgbQhrY2QiR_xE8vzHrMgynbg&bvm=bv.81449611,d.cGU

or this?

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=10&cad=rja&uact=8&sqi=2&ved=0CFEQFjAJ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thebestpageintheuniverse.net%2Fc.cgi%3Fu%3D911_morons&ei=HUyDVOS9LciCoQTb1YLoBg&usg=AFQjCNGBWPE5yNcrF9EIHSyYqkqfybbWvA&bvm=bv.81449611,d.cGU

You see, reading and intelligence dont necessarily go hand in hand.

However if you sprinkle a bit of THIS into your ‘reasoning’

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CD8QFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mentalhealthamerica.net%2Fconditions%2Fparanoia-and-paranoid-disorders&ei=u0yDVKiYJ8LjoAT484D4BQ&usg=AFQjCNGcFo8mBeHjrlA69IpSSqzFIO31KQ&bvm=bv.81449611,d.cGU

You turn into someone wearing something like this…

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB0QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FStraitjacket&ei=Bk2DVJPBHs6uogThkIDIDg&usg=AFQjCNGfiniGyw9o7bSuGLmG8zx0oWEbbw

Geez this “cut and paste” internet stuff is way easier than actually typing!
AWESOME !

P.S. cato is still crazy

#142 chapter 9 on 12.06.14 at 2:42 pm

#123 Linda
The one lesson to my children that I shared with them is “Don’t live beyond your means”. The economy in Alberta is oil and we are not the centre of the universe.We don’t set oil prices,we have zero political clout in the world,we are not a player like the media or politicians make us out to be. External forces which are out of out control will take us out as we are experiencing now. The Saudi’s can pay off our national debt and have money left over. They don’t care about truck payments,mortgage payments,fifth wheel payments or your maxed out line of credit.This is about power. When times are good take advantage of it, plan for the worst and I speak from experience cause when I was their age I was slaughtered by the Liberals NEP and sky high interest rates. Oil could potentially drop below $60 a barrel for an extended period of time. I just hope the carnage that Alberta experienced in the 80’s isn’t duplicated.

#143 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.14 at 3:10 pm

Cato “revealed” in a post apocalyptic world

http://www.google.ca/imgres?imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fbadattitudes.com%2FMT%2Fstraitjacket.jpg&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fbadattitudes.com%2FMT%2Farchives%2F2007%2F01%2F&h=468&w=300&tbnid=_pu7jW2oBvEvTM%3A&zoom=1&docid=36UMsUGea2T47M&ei=HlSDVJ3PFoXloAT9hoHwBw&tbm=isch&ved=0CHEQMyhGMEY&iact=rc&uact=3&dur=1647&page=3&start=63&ndsp=34

#144 luke8929 on 12.06.14 at 3:11 pm

BLS November “establishment survey” 321.000 new jobs, BLS November “household survey” 147,000 jobs, big difference int he two numbers. One says recovery in the US the other says things are not getting better and trending to worse.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=229639

http://www.fitsnews.com/2014/12/05/november-jobs/

Your link goes to the “Bureau of Lies and Scams (Employment).” Yeah, that’s credible. — Garth

#145 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 12.06.14 at 3:42 pm


#24 Bill Gable on 12.05.14 at 8:08 pm

The Saudis have been in SoCal for a long time. I remember seeing dozens of large private Saudi jets parked off to the side along MacArthur or Campus Drive at the John Wayne (OC) airport when I drove to work every day. I doubt if things have changed that much. Same with the villas along Lake Geneva. Although they did stay out of sight there for a few years after 9/11.

#146 Retired Boomer - WI on 12.06.14 at 4:35 pm

Sounds to me like people can’t accept the fact that more prosperous times are returning.

Cato, we are BEYOND Peak Oil. Fact is, it should be getting progressively more expensive, with all the attendant price rises. Don’t be deceived by the latest attempt to destroy competition by the largest oil producer. With NO competition guess who sets the price?

I think a small, yet nasty recession is exactly what people need to jar their tiny brains back to reality. Maybe in two years, after the shale and sand competition is gravely wounded $180 oil will return – with all the expanded pain.
Big Nutz trucks won’t be paid for yet…

Cato, smallest deficit to date. What we need is to restore TAX RATES to what they were under the Clinton administration – the last time we had a surplus. High taxes don’t destroy, they invite creativity. Look at the record here.

#147 Godth on 12.06.14 at 4:59 pm

#147 Retired Boomer – WI

How much water is Ghawar puking out, that’s the real question.

#148 Marco on 12.06.14 at 5:05 pm

What happens when America doesn’t need Canada’s oil? This article was written before the big price decline.

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/what-happens-when-america-doesnt-need-canadas-oil/

#149 RealistvsExtremist on 12.06.14 at 5:07 pm

Anyway Garth I’d like to nominate your blog – comment section – for yet another award. This one would be for the most delusional comments section. I have to warn you though there are plenty of conspiracy theory sites out there (that could be construed as a hint for some of you) and youtube has some incredibly foolish and vulgar comments so I don’t know that you can win this one. Something to think about anyhow.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You can always tell who are those who are “obedient” to the system and never study history when at the end of every generation, the “conspiracy theories” everyone laughed at are proven true.

#150 Axxman on 12.06.14 at 5:33 pm

Even the rich folk in the GTA are feeling it….A yacht club on Toronto Island just went to the city late last week telling of their financial woes and a huge long term boat dealership in Keswick just bit the dust. ” Oh Gilligan…please help Lovely and I, our fortune just sank with the SS Minnow!!”

#151 devore on 12.06.14 at 5:36 pm

#56 Sheane Wallace

Garth, if you take an average job from that report and live from it for a year I will agree with your view of US recovery. Interested?

Make that offer to an unemployed person who has not had a paycheck in over a year.

A job is better than no job. I’m not sure what people’s picture of a recovery is. A 6 figure job for everyone? Not gonna happen. It’s set to be a slow process, given world economics. There will be movement forward, and there will be steps back. You have to look at the whole picture and trends, which are hard to see if you read every negative point-in-time statistic as evidence of impending disaster, and every positive one as made up government propaganda.

#152 robert james on 12.06.14 at 5:47 pm

There are a lot of people living here in the Okanagan that live here and commute to the oil patch.. WestJet flys to FortMac from Kelowna or will fly, not sure if they started yet.. Anyway,,a guy down the street just got layed off.. I see a lot of repo men and auctions in oil patch worker futures.. The trick is, live with in your means and save for a rainy but I rather doubt many do..

#153 Retired Boomer - WI on 12.06.14 at 6:11 pm

#148 Godth

Good question. Who knows the answer? It is clear we ARE an oil dependent society. Yes, we can, and have improved fuel mileages in our vehicles, but it takes over a dozen years to replace the least efficient. We are woefully behind in developing intracity and intercity mass transit be it rail, trolly, or what have we.

The young are less car dependent, the Boomers getting there fast. Since retirement (3 years ago) our annual mileage has dropped by over half.

I would love to see gas priced much higher as it is an easy form of controllable taxation, and a problem in my opinion.
Taxation prevents market manipulation by external forces.
Naturally, that premise is debatable. What is not in debate is our Federal gas taxes have not risen here since 1993. No we will not ‘run out’ of petroleum, but its cost will be going up sharply long term. Climate effects are another entity not agreed.

In the interim we watch policy makers diddle???

#154 Cato the Elder on 12.06.14 at 6:12 pm

Re: #147 Retired

Taxes are an unproductive use of capital. Clinton didn’t use the funds any better than Bush, nor any other president.

This isn’t going to be resolved by getting ‘your man’ in power to distribute all the goodies the way you want. It can only be fixed by rolling back the size and scope and power of the government.

Free peoples and free enterprise grow wealth. Government can only confiscate it and redistribute it, all while parasitically producing diminishing returns.

When you slash taxes, the profitable businesses that created the tax base use the money to GROW THEIR BUSINESSES. They hire more staff, expand production.

Government is not entitled to people’s taxes. The rich benefit society because they money they made was earned through providing goods/services to their customers.

Now, government subsidized banking is a whole other thing. They are very HURTFUL to society because they are deriving a lot of their wealth from burdening the populace with unproductive interest payments. Of course, the scope of the damage would be minimized without overt government support.

***************

Re: #134 Godth

Politicians and alarmists have been warning about peak oil for decades, it is not anything new. Just like they warn us about everything else from global cooling (now it’s warming) to pollution to Ebola and everything else.

Of course, history would demonstrate to anyone with a memory that lasts longer than the span of a goldfish’s that all these predictions turn out wrong. That many of these people deserve NO credibility and should be summarily dismissed and ignored (I say we cast them out and ostracize them – I’m sick of listening to them destroy our economy for ‘feel good’ reasons).

They turn out wrong because of a fundamental misunderstanding of economics. If people want something, and are willing to pay, it will be produced.

There is no reason for busy body groups and politicians to stick their noses in it. The profit incentive that drives independent entrepreneurs will resolve all.

********

Posse commitatus? This is how it begins folks. The normalization of the police state. US is now running military drills in major cities in complete violation of hundred year old statutes:

http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2014/12/05/camp-pendleton-marines-to-conduct-training-in-downtown-la/

#155 Godth on 12.06.14 at 6:34 pm

#155 Cato the Elder

Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we’re nearing collapse
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/limits-to-growth-was-right-new-research-shows-were-nearing-collapse

So does knowing about this for over 40 yrs., and ignoring it, mean that we’re smarter or dumber? History has a few lessons to teach about overshoot as well.

Physics and geology trumps economics every time.

#156 For those about to flop... on 12.06.14 at 6:35 pm

Whilst I acknowledge a lot of the job creation in the U.S is of the part time variety ,those who deny that the U.S is in a SLOW RECOVERY are out of the loop.
I only know this personally because I budget holiday in the states 3 times a year and talking to blue collar people I meet in campgrounds and rural towns in summer and in southern cities /towns in winter where i don’t hire cars and use public transport ,you get pretty good idea about the mood of the state/area.
People I ride the bus with are people who are house aids or work at Subway and although they don’t earn a lot of money I have seen a lot more happiness and confidence in the economy the last 2 years .I believe the average joe can see light at the end of the tunnel and I wish them well.Off to San Diego in a couple of weeks so we,ll see what the word on the street is there .

#157 Kenchie on 12.06.14 at 6:37 pm

Finally, the MSM speaks up about these horrible lies.

“Beware of investment condo ads selling massive returns”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/beware-of-investment-condo-ads-that-promise-hefty-returns/article20857337/

#158 For those about to flop... on 12.06.14 at 6:37 pm

Should be “house maids “WTF!

#159 Alex on 12.06.14 at 6:45 pm

I’m with Garth on US recovery. All my money went into $US and BAC stock and we are having fun. Enjoy your 600k mortgage balance !!!

#160 Smoking Man on 12.06.14 at 6:47 pm

A safe stock bet is funerals, and everything related to it.
Having just paid for a basic one was more expensive than my son’s wedding.. And I already bought the plot and head stones for six back in the 90s

#161 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.14 at 6:49 pm

@#155 cato the enfeebled

“Posse Comitatus”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Once AGAIN you post a link to an internet story which invalidates your comment.
My God man. Its a busy “world” in there isnt it?

The story YOU “linked” spoke of “training scenarios”.

Let me provide a wikipedia link to the POSSE COMITATUS ACT of 1878http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&sqi=2&ved=0CB0QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FPosse_Comitatus_Act&ei=fIWDVJSaAcieoQSHroGQCQ&usg=AFQjCNGXXDGXWv1zD3hob4__GnX4w0IFMg&bvm=bv.81449611,d.cGU

The act is for the denial of ” federal armed services” in State affairs with the exception of……

You may note in the first two paragraphs that several ‘armed servises” such as the National Guard(you do rememeber history when the National Guard was used to escort black students to school in illegally segregated Alabama right?right?) and the Coast Guard( used to enforce prohibition in the 20’s and drug interdictions today) are EXEMPT from the act!
Do you even READ what you link to?
Or do you just go off on a paranoid tangent every time another conspiracy story pops up on the internet?
Time to fly from the nest little bird and think for yourself.
OR
Keep babbling, it just confirms what we already know.

#162 kommykim on 12.06.14 at 6:52 pm

RE: #141 kastis on 12.06.14 at 2:39 pm
I would like to ask everybody’s opinion. At work I can contribute certain amount extra to my Pension Plan and the company will match that. Is it better to contribute that amount to TFSA or to pension plan and get matched by company ?

This one is pretty obvious. Go with the extra contributions into the Pension Plan that your employer will match. Instant 100% guaranteed gain! Even with taxes on the RSP withdrawals, you are way ahead.

#163 Retired Boomer - WI on 12.06.14 at 6:59 pm

#142 Crowdedelevatorfartz

BEST of the day, sir!!

#164 For those about to flop... on 12.06.14 at 7:09 pm

Any one else think that Cato and Crowded sound like and old married couple!

#165 Retired Boomer - WI on 12.06.14 at 7:09 pm

#155 Cato

Only government can repay deficits, not ordinary citizens.

Only the collective action of citizens upon government to reduce its footprint, will ever cause that to happen.

People have not been ‘demanding’ that, now have they?

TAXES are the way government pays for that which “we the people” have demanded, from defense, to social security, to roads, to all the rest. frivolous & non-frivolous.

Government CAN be as effective as we demand it to be, or
“We the People” might well take steps to change it. It HAS been done here before, see 1776. An orderly change is preferable, but getting consensus of our elected 535 representatives, let alone consensus of some 335 million people here illegal, or otherwise is truly herculean.

What would you suggest, Cato?

#166 SWL1976 on 12.06.14 at 7:29 pm

#164 Retired Boomer – WI

BEST of the day, sir!!

———————————-

Well I guess small minds do think alike

———————————-

#162 crowdedelevatorfartz

Nice link. I guess cut and paste is harder than you thought???

Now this is getting childish

#167 Arfmooocat on 12.06.14 at 7:34 pm

#139

Over 70% of our exports go south. Stop making things up. — Garth

……………………………………………………………………….

Do we make anything?

#168 Arfmooocat on 12.06.14 at 7:40 pm

ROUBINI: The Mother Of All Asset Bubbles Will Burst In 2016

http://uk.businessinsider.com/roubini-the-mother-of-all-asset-bubbles-will-burst-in-2016-2014-12

#169 Godth on 12.06.14 at 7:48 pm

#162 crowdedelevatorfartz

Let me introduce you to tinyURL:
http://tinyurl.com/

I’m not sure how you’re getting those epic URL’s but it’s ridiculous.

#170 Retired Boomer - WI on 12.06.14 at 7:51 pm

#141 Kastis

Go with the company match first. If your company will match any amount, all the better. Many companies limit what they match, say to 4-5-6%.

If that is your situation, go with the maximum of their match. If it is unlimited, fine 100% FREE MONEY on all that you can contribute!! IF their is a maximum, fine contribute up to that maximum. IF you have any extra cash set up a TFSA for the extra contributions.

Personally, I tried to save at least 15% of my income towards retirement. Some years I was able to stash a bit more. Worked OK for us.

Oh, and pick a broad based ETF, or mutual fund. Nothing too conservative, it will be growing for quite a few years.

#171 Cato the Elder on 12.06.14 at 8:26 pm

Re: #162 crowded

I’m not American. I’m Canadian.

And I can assure you that most Canadians would be extremely alarmed at army helicopters and over 2000 troops performing exercises in Toronto.

The fact that many Americans are not alarmed by this is very telling of the degree to which their minds have been conditioned to accept it.

Watching recent Independence Day speeches by politicians, as well as celebrations by Americans, tells you how much they support warfare.

Independence Day was meant to celebrate freedom from oppressive government. To celebrate the independence of man. But instead, the entire holiday has been hijacked by warmongers with festivities that promote endless interventionism abroad.

The founders are rolling in their graves.

#172 Daisy Mae on 12.06.14 at 8:44 pm

#48 Mike: “Next you’ll be recommending bomb shelters, survival food…”

********************

I remember bomb shelters being built in Vancouver. Was it the late 50’s-early 60’s? Homeowners building bomb shelters in their backyards. Working in downtown Vancouver, we joked as we headed to a cafe for lunch when the news that day was particularly dire — we were off to partake in our ‘last supper’. No kidding!

#173 Smoking Man on 12.06.14 at 8:49 pm

#142 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.14 at 2:40 pm
@#137 SWL1976
“Now how about something interesting???”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You mean like THIS ?

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&sqi=2&ved=0CCMQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fi100.independent.co.uk%2Farticle%2Fthe-internets-seven-most-sinister-conspiracy-theories–l1dIS7Et0&ei=HUyDVOS9LciCoQTb1YLoBg&usg=AFQjCNHIguBr9yQEph1gkVap6WhEBQEF8Q&bvm=bv.81449611,d.cGU

or THIS?

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&sqi=2&ved=0CB0QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fmashable.com%2F2014%2F04%2F28%2Fconspiracy-theories%2F&ei=HUyDVOS9LciCoQTb1YLoBg&usg=AFQjCNHqxmgbQhrY2QiR_xE8vzHrMgynbg&bvm=bv.81449611,d.cGU

or this?

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=10&cad=rja&uact=8&sqi=2&ved=0CFEQFjAJ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thebestpageintheuniverse.net%2Fc.cgi%3Fu%3D911_morons&ei=HUyDVOS9LciCoQTb1YLoBg&usg=AFQjCNGBWPE5yNcrF9EIHSyYqkqfybbWvA&bvm=bv.81449611,d.cGU

You see, reading and intelligence dont necessarily go hand in hand.

However if you sprinkle a bit of THIS into your ‘reasoning’

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CD8QFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mentalhealthamerica.net%2Fconditions%2Fparanoia-and-paranoid-disorders&ei=u0yDVKiYJ8LjoAT484D4BQ&usg=AFQjCNGcFo8mBeHjrlA69IpSSqzFIO31KQ&bvm=bv.81449611,d.cGU

You turn into someone wearing something like this…

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB0QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FStraitjacket&ei=Bk2DVJPBHs6uogThkIDIDg&usg=AFQjCNGfiniGyw9o7bSuGLmG8zx0oWEbbw

Geez this “cut and paste” internet stuff is way easier than actually typing!
AWESOME !

P.S. cato is still crazy
……..

No you’re a machine suck up. Perhaps you can start a new demolition company.

Think of the profit…. Just start a few fires on a few floors and the building comes down at free all speed, 32 seconds per second…

Just like world trade centre 7.

#174 gladiator on 12.06.14 at 8:58 pm

crowdedelevator:
maybe you could contribute something more and better than some lame links about some dumb conspiracies?
Cato, at least, can articulate his ideas and is doing it quite well, I must say.
Your childish attacks for the sake of attacking someone, and not to debate their ideas in a fair and intelligent way suggest that you must be a lonely teenager somewhere in his parents’ basement; poor, depressed, unemployed, unloved, etc. In short, a failure. Just like your moniker.

#175 Setting the Record Straight on 12.06.14 at 9:13 pm

“I believe the warehouse packing jobs for free-shipping retailers are crud (conditions, pay) but hope the Canada Post/UPS workers get a fair shake.”

******

Canada post should be dismantled.

#176 Setting the Record Straight on 12.06.14 at 9:48 pm

“When Ron Paul was running for president his speeches made sense to me. I would have voted for him. I knew he would not get in because he spoke too softly, the same with Al Gore (one of the reasons). I think the States missed two great opportunities to correct itself and the world with it.”

&&&&

Why would you vote for polar opposite agendas?

#177 Smoking Man on 12.06.14 at 10:04 pm

DELETED

#178 Johnny Come Lately on 12.06.14 at 10:36 pm

I agree with you that what seems obvious MUST come to fruition at some point. Therein lays the rub. In my 40 some years investing I have learned one thing, that when dealing with the macro, you might be correct in your analysis, but get the timing completely wrong. We have watched with horror as real estate prices haven’t crashed, personal debt has doubled and emergency rates become extended into the 15th year. It’s frustrating for sure, but not investible information. It is what it is, not what you expect it to be. I will leave with one last thought, since when has greed been suspended? Oil at yummy cheapo prices forever? Think of the opposite argument of real estate prices going up forever, recency nonsensical thinking. Oil economies around the world will implode into chaos within very short order. It takes crazy guts to buy when something as basic as survival is on sale.

BTW…if the macro were always reliable…Boom Bust Echo would have brought seniors into the condo market thirty years ago. Dr. David Foote has waited a lifetime to be proven right….which he is, just not right now.

#179 Smoking Man on 12.06.14 at 10:37 pm

So hammered, I’m in the chairman’s loung, in selemenca NY.. Not one single basterd in this chairman’s room is up. It’s imposable, the algo’s get you.

But admittance is all that counts.. Fortunately for me.

I’m here for the free booze, wife just asked for another five hundred. Ok… Acceptance in the losers loung for me..

#180 Setting the Record Straight on 12.06.14 at 10:45 pm

@109

Now we can add to the silliness the destruction of BC’s world-famous park system, soon to be the playground for pipeline spills and fracking chemical pollution.

*****

What are you talking about? Please explain. And I mean explain exactly your concerns and the locationsto which you are referring.

#181 Setting the Record Straight on 12.06.14 at 10:55 pm

“Now with the largest population block entering retirement -DUH- Boomers will affect this segment, like we affected every dam segment our whole lives. Cato, look at these stats over history.”

I understand participation rates among older generations are up, yet in spite of that overall participation rates are down.

#182 BlackDog on 12.06.14 at 11:15 pm

@Kastis, re: #141, “I would like to ask everybody’s opinion. At work I can contribute certain amount extra to my Pension Plan and the company will match that. Is it better to contribute that amount to TFSA or to pension plan and get matched by company ? lets assume that investment type and returns would be equal
thank you”

Kastis, no offence, but no one cares. However, since you asked, matched contribution company pension plan = free money…duh!

#183 BlackDog on 12.06.14 at 11:20 pm

@Gladiator, re: #175, CrowdedElevator is stuck.

#184 Cato the Elder on 12.06.14 at 11:29 pm

Re: #166 Retired

51% of the people do not have the right to tell the other 49% how to live.

That is mob rule. That is what we are living under.

A ‘constitutional’ democracy or republic has limited powers. Powers that protect the individual from the aggression of others. It allows them to live in peace and pursue their own self interest in discovering what makes them happy.

We have deficits because reckless politicians have been placed in power by reckless voters.

As far as I’m concerned, deficits are illegitimate. No prior generation has the right to burden the next with debt. It is no different than placing the individual debts accrued by a father or mother onto their children when they die. No one would argue that is fair. Everyone deserves a clean slate.

Part of the reason we have had perpetual deficits for decades is because of our monetary system. The central bank facilitates deficit spending by purchasing our bonds.

That means taxes don’t need to be raised, thus raising the ire of the public. If taxes truly represented the extent of our governments spending, there would be a mass uprising.

Instead, they tax us covertly. They tax us with inflation. They print the money to make up for shortfalls, which dilutes and diminishes the value of the money the public holds in their savings.

That is why I believe very strongly that we should abolish our central bank. I believe we should allow free competing currencies – let the public choose what they want to transact in. Why should we be limited to the one choice offered by government?

I believe very strongly a commodity backed form of money, representing the TRUE and HONEST labour that went into making it, would be the inevitable result. We would all be richer as a result.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation_tax

#185 Porsche on 12.06.14 at 11:42 pm

The crash in oil prices is costing those Canadian producers billions of loonies.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/countries-slammed-worst-plunging-oil-180140753.html

#186 saskatoon on 12.07.14 at 12:01 am

if all these jobs have been created…

…and the creation of these jobs is partly indicative of an american economic recovery…

why were holiday sales down significantly this year?

They were down on one day, not for the season. Besides, retail is going online. — Garth

#187 KIAs Krush Harleys & Hummers on 12.07.14 at 12:05 am

People need to live within their means, not take on too much house debt, enjoy a good quality of life without going overboard and buy what they can afford, but good quality and durability.

Not unlike a fabulous Korean automobile ;)

KKHH

#188 Cato the Elder on 12.07.14 at 12:24 am

Re: #187 Saskatoon

Because everyone knows a cold vortex swooped in and changed American consumer habits, duh.

It’s amazing how powerful those things are – they can undermine the world’s number 1 – whoops, I mean now number 2 – economy.

You know what’s scary about all this? My uncle grew up under the Iron Curtain in Europe. He said the government always published wonderful statistics saying everyone had a job, that production was up, that food was abundant. Yet, everyone waited 2 hours in bread lines.

Just incredible that no one is recognizing we are being enveloped from the INSIDE by this…

#189 Rexx Rock on 12.07.14 at 12:35 am

What I’m thinking is provincial goverments will be implementing new carbon taxes very soon to all the provinces like B.C.With gas prices way down it will be a less of a shock to the consumer.Get ready for new taxes coming,the rest of the country needs to suffer in the pocket book like we have in B.C. for the last few years.

#190 cynically on 12.07.14 at 12:48 am

Cato, in #172 you end your anti American tirade saying the founding fathers(US) are rolling in their graves. How would you know when earlier you tell us you are Canadian – a very boring Canadian at that.

#191 JimH on 12.07.14 at 3:01 am

#168 Arfmooocat
You ask, “Do we make anything?”

Canadians seem to be largely under the illusion that they don’t produce anything at all! For starters, here’s a couple of links.

http://www.indexmundi.com/trade/exports/?country=ca

http://www.canadianexports.org/

BTW, about 62% of Canada’s trade is with the USA.

Regarding the recovery here in the USA; yes, it’s slow… And a stagnant Europe and a slowing Asia are headwinds to more rapid growth at this time.

But it is very, very real! This anecdotal, granted, but in the last 3 years we have logged over 20,000 miles pulling our 5th wheel around the US. There is no doubt about the general increase in economic activity throughout the country.

We just completed a ride from our property near Kansas City, MO down to Houston, and across to our main home in southern Arizona. There is no doubt in my mind that rail and truck transportation has increased dramatically from just several years ago. The InterStates are jammed with semi’s!

Those that have failed to profit from this recovery post 2008 are just another variety of “greater fool”. Failing to recognize and act on such opportunity takes discipline and commitment and a touch of courage.

Idle sniping from the sidelines is the sure mark of a loser!

#192 JimH on 12.07.14 at 3:20 am

#185 Cato the Elder?

Returning to any commodity-backed currency is silly, impractical and impossible to implement at present.

Abolishing the Fed is also a very stupid idea.

The Swiss just decided against a return to a gold standard, and with good reason. They are much smarter that you.

See: http://gold-standard.procon.org/

#193 PJ on 12.07.14 at 5:31 am

Disastrous economic fundamentals may not mean anything for now, but soon they will.

#194 westcanguy on 12.07.14 at 5:40 am

“They were down on one day, not for the season. Besides, retail is going online. — Garth”

______________________________________________

Yeah, that should help the ‘ol job numbers.

UPS hiring 95,000. — Garth

#195 randman on 12.07.14 at 8:51 am

You would all be wise to head Cato’s posts …..he presents the information in an informed and truthful format ….
Everything he says is spot on…..he has more patience for you lot than I have..so I give him credit…

A stock market analogy …

Once upon a time a man told a small village, “I will buy monkeys for $10 each.”

Since there were many monkeys in the forest, the villagers caught them and sold them to the man.

As the supply of monkeys diminished, the villagers’ efforts slowed, so the man offered them $20 each.

They renewed their efforts but the supply of monkeys diminished further, so he increased his price to $25.

Soon no one could even find a monkey in the forest.

The man increased his price to $50, but announced, “Since I must go to the city on business, I authorize my assistant to buy monkeys on my behalf.”

As soon as his boss was gone, the assistant told the villagers, “My boss has collected lots of monkeys. I’ll sell them to you for $35 and then, when he returns, you can sell them to him for $50.”

The villagers rounded up all the money they could and bought as many monkeys as possible. Then they had monkeys everywhere…

… but they never saw the man or his assistant again.

And now you understand the workings of the stock market!

The Twist on the above is “Monkey Receipts”(tm)

Monkey Banks have figured out how to sell Monkey Receipts to the villagers, which the villagers like because they are easier to carry and don’t require leashes or corrals. There is no danger of the Monkeys escaping. So the Monkey Banks sold 100 times more receipts than the # of Monkeys in existence. Everything was well and good until the villagers tried to cash in with the man.

Judging by Cato & his Disciples, I think all the simians came here. — Garth

#196 randman on 12.07.14 at 8:55 am

Cynically 191

That’s the stupidest comment/ criticism i’ve ever heard…
intelligent Canadians know more about the States and history than most Americans know themselves.

Your comment about boring..proves you haven’t read his posted information and proof of what he talks….

You sir are the one that is boring ….or perhaps ignorant is a better word!

#197 randman on 12.07.14 at 9:02 am

JimH

Another lame brained comment….

The Swiss just decided against a return to a gold standard, and with good reason. They are much smarter that you.

No JimH ..the Swiss as with all the Western countries in the world …don’t want to take the short term pain for long term gain..

It’s plain and simple selfishness and “Me and now” thinking …human nature will always reject the difficult and proper but painful solution to the easy money ,keep the party going path….we’ll take our dessert now thanks…screw the kids!

The Swiss made an enlightened decision. Why spend public money so the central bank can collect a pile of depreciating rocks? Oh, I get it – to make your own gold less of an unmitigated investment disaster. — Garth

#198 SWL1976 on 12.07.14 at 9:05 am

Waking up is hard to do… Look no one likes to be awaken from their slumber, and the longer you have been sleeping the harder it is going to be to wake up. In some cases like we may have witnessed here on this blog waking up can be shocking and dangerous, it may cause some very irrational behaviour. They say never wake up a sleep walker.

Anyways the point I am trying to make here is that it is time for all of us to wake up and see things for what they are. We are being lead on the path to slaughter by the ones we trust and that is the devious evil in all of this.

I know it’s hard to wake up one day and realize that all you thought you knew about how things work here in the western world is a lie. Gone are the days of good honest politicians (Garth) and good moral ethics in business. Look around and take your blinders off folks. Society is facing some very real and very dire problems. I don’t know what the answer is and have never claimed to, but I do know there is no solution in petty bickering and name calling

Right now I see a major problem we all face together, but I don’t yet see a solution, but that doesn’t mean I am going to give up and stop looking

I refuse to give up, there is a much better way to do business

#199 buu on 12.07.14 at 10:30 am

@39 Have you ever heard of the word ‘average’? — Garth

Not every average Joe bought in 2014. Let’s assume 5% of AB population purchased a home this year. 50% of these are not first home owners so in reality only 2.5% will be affected. From these at least 50% will afford to pay so nothing alarming as you want to look…

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Real+Estate+Matters+Local+bubble+shows+sign+bursting+2015/10436781/story.html

The reference was to price averaging, not average buyers. — Garth

#200 Tony from Calgary on 12.07.14 at 10:34 am

@ Cato the Elder,

“Funny, all I’m trying to do is help educate people on here. I’m trying to help them see what’s coming. I’m trying to make sure they are prepared for what happens next, and that they can take care of their families.

If you refuse to examine the information I set forth, I can’t force you.”

I used to come on here and try to do the same, Cato, but gave up awhile ago when it donned on me that most of the “blog dogs” here aren’t actually thinking for themselves – all they’ve done is replace the gospel the received from the Mainstream Media with Garth’s prognostications (some of which seem to be correct – i.e. a coming Canadian housing collapse – while others strike me as very wrong-sighted – i.e. the perception that the US is actually recovering).

While I hate giving up (and I suspect you do too), I recommend you leave the “blog dogs” to their fantasies of collapsing housing prices where by they can swoop in and buy the granite-countertop McMansions they’ve secretly been dreaming for a song and a dance, while everything else within the economy continues along as normal. Of course, this is fantasy, because when the Canadian housing market collapses there will be massive instability within our banking sector and likely a massive loss of jobs (both public and private) – many of the “blog dogs” will lose jobs, see assets held by financial institutions devalue/disappear and look on in shock as their standard of living quickly implodes. 1/2 price granite-countertop McMansions won’t be much of a consolidation when so many of them are struggling to put food on their tables… this is the spectre of Deflation.

Anyways, if you can tear yourself away from this place, please do so – it’s neither your or my place to tell the “blog dogs” what to think and clearly they’ve come here to hear what Garth has to say. There are much better places to share your ideas were people will actively consider them (not dismiss them with glib arrogance or ad hominem attacks) and have though-provoking discourse, such as theautomaticearth.com and geroldblog.com, just to name a few.

Personally I’d love to hear more about your views around abiotic oil, as while I’m a Peak Oil enthusiast, I suspect there’s more to the theory than is presented – i.e. perhaps the theory of Peak Oil is still valid but needs to modified in relation to how quickly abiotic oil replenishes wells (i.e. in the same way one could have a great deal of assets, but if their cash flow becomes compromised they could find themselves insolvent)?

Hope to see you in some other intellectual ghettos Cato… your insight seems wasted here for the most part.

Cheers,
TFC

#201 Steve French on 12.07.14 at 11:00 am

Smokey’s back on the booze folks!

Lord help us.

#202 Alex N Calgary on 12.07.14 at 11:16 am

We just did a roadtrip from Nashville to New Orleans to Jacksonville FL, we saw the same thing down there, lots of new cars (credit flowing) beautiful roads, nice people, bustling malls! they tell us country music is so hot that the economy is doing well, same in Alabama where steel and forestry and construction is humming along, I was suprised to see this compared to Montana and Oregon which looked pretty dead back in April. (incredible roads down there, compared to the mish mash that is Calgary!)

Thank goodness finally this is happening, after our amatuer landlord older woman announced she’d put our craphole house up for sale at the end of our 1yr lease (hurray, 4 rentals in 4years, I loooove moving) You know I don’t blame anyone for buying in this province just to escape the heavily landlord oriented tenant laws here and this BS with properties being sold and transfered and amatuer investors, I really believe now some people just got into houses to get out of the stress, not because they were ignorant to the risks. Now people who’ve been moving up in houses….or expensive Reno’s on HELOC, danger zone.

People aren’t talking much about the oil correction except the managers and bosses in the know, word is that we might have some more layoffs of expensive contractors (oilfield planning, completion services etc) this year before 2014 is over, but next year, when the ground thaws out, if oil is still low, its gonna be slashed projects. Which means the zillions of out of province plates around here will bail outta the province and their edge-of-the-city houses. So many people I know have “investment properties” no renters for those, no more houses being built (huge here, HUGE, not to mention all the independent contractor guys who do like drywall with just a pickup truck and a set of ladders)

And it spirals and it takes the rest of Canada with it.

The irony of course is that after 5yrs of waiting for a housing deal, I may not have a job in which to buy it!

We drove from Calgary to Edmonton yesterday and for the first time in a long while, I saw a truck with balls hanging from it, and thought of Garth!

Are you in the market for a lifted Super Duty Diesel pickup with balls and a giant exhaust pipe spewing unburnt fuel? I have a feeling a lot will be up for sale soon, Cheap!!! )

#203 TnT on 12.07.14 at 11:40 am

#201 Tony from Calgary

Hey Tony from Calgary

This is part of your post from last February

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2014/02/14/how-to-be-a-hero/

People who really care about the security of your future (and not about making revenues off you) will likely advise you liquidate all debts and gain more control over the essentials of your life – food, water, energy, shelter and community. These are the things that really matter, and I don’t believe its worth risking them just to make a 7% or 10% return on a gamble (or as some would call it, an “investment”).

Here is Garth’s reply

The Apocalypse called. You forgot your seeds. — Garth

******

You have been posting your doom and gloom for way longer than last February and by now you must be frustrated that your stock pile of canned beans and toilet paper have NOT been a good investment.

Best of luck chatting with the likes of Cato… take SW1976 and Randman too..

Cheers!

#204 JimH on 12.07.14 at 11:42 am

#198 Randman

You’re the one with the lame brain, my friend, or are you just too lazy to use it?

If the USA were to go onto a gold standard tomorrow, either gold would have to shoot up to over $10,000/Toz, or we would see massive deflationary pressures.

Go do some legitimate research into the nature of modern monetary systems. Your ignorance and bumper-sticker mentality is making you look silly.

And, yes; the Swiss really did do the right thing (and yes, they really are smarter than you foolish ideologues!)

#205 JimH on 12.07.14 at 11:53 am

#203 Alex n Calgary
Thanks for your comments.

My only complaints on my road trip were the lousy drivers in Texas, and the rather shabby conditions of their highways. Funny how a State with crappy drivers, shabby roads, and very high speed limits also has the highest fatal accident rate. Might have something to do with Gov. Rick Perry? I think Cato is one of his fans!

#206 saskatoon on 12.07.14 at 12:09 pm

garth,

whereabouts do you think gold will bottom?

#207 Cow Man on 12.07.14 at 12:23 pm

#185 Cato the Elder

You are right on about the burden we are placing on our children and grand children. Nearly every one who votes, supporting any level of governance is voting to hate their heirs, even if they don’t realize it.

#208 Retired Boomer - WI on 12.07.14 at 12:29 pm

#185 CATO

I have read your post, and I am digesting it. I am a rather SLOW thinker.

In the US we live generally, on laws passed by a simple majority rule. That is 51% vs 49%. I don’t have a problem with that in a representative republic -which IS what we are.

As for commodity based money…..no formed opinion yet.

As for reform of taxation. YES! we need to treat earned income, unearned income (rent & interest) as well as capital gains appreciation on the same level. Tax them all LESS perhaps, but tax them all the same.

Depletion allowances, depreciation could be looked at as well. Why we have some of the largest corporations in the world who pay no Federal income taxes is beyond the pale! Hey, if they can send me a dividend check, they sure as well can pay federal taxes, GE is the example here!!

Min to Max rates would be a good 1st step.

As for the rest, contemplating. Thnx for the reply

#209 Fort Frances Realtor on 12.07.14 at 12:49 pm

Garth, you treasonous bastard.

With all your readers, if you had only switched to a paper edition of this blog like we asked, none of this would be happening. (Think of the Canada Post jobs you’d have saved too!)

Paper built your past, it wipes your bum now and will diaper you pretty soon too, from what I’ve been hearing and smelling on here.

But where is your gratitude?

Our mill is closing and our town’s economy is collapsing. Real estate is dying from a complete lack of interest. Our pipe band has even shut down.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/paper-trail-the-fall-of-forestry/article21967746/

On the positive side, there are now many nice starter homes here for under $50K. Can we set you up with anything?

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=15039108

I think going forward it would be proper for you to donate your parliamentary pension to the realtor retraining fund here. (Please do this quickly – A fellow from down your way named Pierre Poutine says he will take ten of us as early as next spring if we can be trained now as telemarketers)

#210 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.07.14 at 12:51 pm

@ smoky, Godth, Gladiator ,Cato the Error, Elizabeth May(MP)
and any other 9/11 “deniers”

My name is crowdedelevatorFARTZ! Not “crowded”.
Geez. Cant even get THAT right.

As for the 9/11 “conspiracy”You want everyone to listen and believe what YOU say is gospel.
But if anyone expresses ANY doubt or derision, you’re outraged.
Seek help.

Oh, and as for getting you “deniers” all wound up.
Its sooooooooo pathetically easy. Try this “theory” on for size.
The popular belief of 9/11( supported by millions of witnesses in New York) was ….. two highjacked airplanes flown by fanatics into the Twin Towers of the World Trade center.

A simple, yet effective explanation, but you guys keep playing with your “marbles” at the asylum……its so much more fun.

PS Went to a christmas party last night and unlike you basement dwelling trolls, I actually met people with different opinions and views.
I have to go now, I’ve had 3 cups of coffee and the elevator beckons.

#211 SWL1976 on 12.07.14 at 1:23 pm

#204 TnT

——————————-

You know what TnT you’re right, you’re so so so… so so very right. That’s all you really want to hear right? Oh come on I know it is.

I think I will venture beyond this blog sphere because Tony from Calgary makes some very valid points. It might be nice to share thoughts and ideas and not have to be ridiculed if your idea is different from that of the heard

Care to re-evaluated our thoughts and ideas in let’s say 4 years, or maybe 2020? A nice even number

What’s going to be left to talk about here once the Canadian housing market does finally implode?

BTW more and more every day the ones who speak of all these said ‘conspiracies’ seem much more rational than the deniers. Cast in point; this comment section

Excellent job on this blog Garth, from its inception and for the work you will continue with. I will still be a daily reader but the comments section is getting a little harsh for my taste.

#212 Smoking Man on 12.07.14 at 1:33 pm

#202 Steve French on 12.07.14 at 11:00 am
Smokey’s back on the booze folks!

Lord help us.
……….

Lord help me….every Sunday morning I’m frightened to come here and see what I was ranting about.

I see I have delete up top…no idea what I wrote.

I check facebook all good, twitter OK. Then who I called , and my sent items in various email accounts.

Ha, Gartho got chapter 5, have absolutely no recollection of sending it…

This could be a problem…

#213 Victor V on 12.07.14 at 2:06 pm

#99 Smoking Man

True dat. In Cuba, a brain surgeon makes $30 a month so needs to drive a cab part-time to put food on the table.

The guy serving you breakfast at the all-inclusive buffet is rolling in the dough, though.

Supply and demand.

#214 Cato the Elder on 12.07.14 at 2:19 pm

Re: #211 crowded

No rational person is ‘denying’ 9/11. Obviously 2 airplanes crashed into two towers.

But did you know THREE (3) towers fell on that day? That’s right.

A third one, WTC7 fell and NO PLANES HIT IT. The only damage it sustained was minor office fires on various floors, as well as some exterior damage from the debris from the twin towers.

THAT bodes some investigating. Not to be dismissed as simply ‘a conspiracy’.

See, critical thinkers don’t simply accept what they are told. They engage in this little thing called ‘independent thought’. And you know what? Sometimes they turn out wrong. But at least they try to piece the puzzle together themselves, rather than being told it by a biased source.

#215 everythingisterrible on 12.07.14 at 3:14 pm

#214 Victor V
#99 Smoking Man

True dat. In Cuba, a brain surgeon makes $30 a month so needs to drive a cab part-time to put food on the table.

The guy serving you breakfast at the all-inclusive buffet is rolling in the dough, though.

Supply and demand
——————————
That’s not supply and demand, that’s communism.

#216 SWL1976 on 12.07.14 at 3:27 pm

#211 crowded

Take a long hard look in the mirror, you are much closer to the asylum than any poster here

#217 Godth on 12.07.14 at 3:30 pm

#211 crowdedelevatorfartz

Huh? I believe the official conspiracy theory. If you start wondering how 4 planes can fly around in some of the most protected airspace in the world without being intercepted…how office fires melt steel…why no blackboxes were recovered…why there were so many wargames pinging on radar systems that day…

oh the list is too long and it just makes my head hurt. Tim Osmon and his band of trainees managed it all with boxcutters. Everyone knows that, all the news was telling us within one hour of the event.

Why are we even talking about this? I don’t remember bringing it up and yet you lump me in with these wacko’s?

#218 Crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.07.14 at 3:44 pm

@#215 Cato the Exqualminated


But did you know THREE (3) towers fell on that day? That’s right.”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Ummmm , Perhaps the 2 Towers right next to it weighing millions of tons each that compacted in upon themselves with such force that it was registered with the Seismographs at UCLA in Berkley had something to do with it?

#219 Crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.07.14 at 3:47 pm

@#218 God (with a lisp)
“I don’t remember bringing it up and yet you lump me in with these wacko’s?”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Well at least we agree they’re wacko’s

#220 Crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.07.14 at 3:55 pm

@#217 SWL1976

now now be nice :)

#221 Raincouver on 12.07.14 at 4:13 pm

In the three formations that account for 88 percent of U.S. shale oil output — the Bakken, the Eagle Ford and the Permian Basin — explorers can drill wells profitably in some areas with crude at $25 a barrel, a team of analysts led by Manuj Nikhanj at ITG Investment Research Inc. said this week.

From bloomberg. If this is true, what’s going to happen to Alberta??

#222 Tony from Calgary on 12.07.14 at 8:48 pm

@ TnT,

They’re all more than welcome to join me and the “doomers” on other blogs. You are too if you ever care to have serious thought provoking discourse and not simply resort to sophistry/insults to avoid having to consider the true state the world in is and the future we’re heading toward.

If not, best of luck to you and yours. I recommend you grab some canned beans and toilet paper next time you take a break from blog dogging. Promise you won’t regret it :)

Cheers,
-TFC

#223 Charles Ponzi on 12.08.14 at 4:31 pm

“This ain’t no disco, this ain’t no fooling around” & “Hold tight wait till the party’s over. Hold tight we’re in for nasty weather. There has got to be a way. Burning down the house”

http://zirpqe.wordpress.com/2014/12/06/uncork-the-central-bank-bubbly/