The bloat

Today’s Big News: US economy ‘booms’. 321,000 new jobs.

More of the same. “Toronto home prices soar amid bidding wars,” read the newspaper headline yesterday. And just to ensure the point was made to the gullible, horny masses, there was this sub-head: “Toronto home prices surge.”

I’ll get back to this fiction in a moment.

First, let’s reference an interesting little piece by equity research analyst Mehran Nakhjavani, posted on Seeking Alpha. It goes to the cowboy thing we all debated yesterday. N’s theory is that certain commodity-producing countries which have benefited from high demand and high prices for the last decade (that would include us) are now the economic equivalent of lazy, fat, entitled twerps who watched the welfare cheques roll in while indulging themselves on non-productive, expensive and sexy hobbies. Like houses.

“Commodity-dependent economies are by nature volatile,” he says. “During booms, their financial assets appreciate as investors become convinced of their long-term potential, driven by the strong, secular global demand for their exports. Their growth rates rise, their currencies appreciate. They take on massive leverage, and typically experience bubble-like conditions in asset markets, especially housing.”

In other words, people start thinking ‘it’s different here.’ Or ‘we’re special,’ Or (my fav), ‘buy now or buy never’ since prices only go up.

N believes the commodity supercycle is kaput, that prices will revert to a long-term decline and the prospects for the “Frothy Five” nations are bleak. “The virtuous cycle that propelled their assets higher during the boom now threatens to become a vicious cycle of weakening currencies, rising import prices, headwinds to consumption and investment growth and the potential for asset bubbles to burst.”

Of course, we’re one of the frothy ones, along with Norway (also home to stupid house prices), and those rocks of stability, Colombia, Peru and Brazil. Of course, if this is even remotely true, and the recent plop in oil is structural, then Alberta will not be a happy place – with a cascading influence on real estate everywhere.

Were it not for runaway, out-of-control inflation now, we might already be in the grip of a consequential correction. That verbal inflation, as you know, is coming from the real estate cartel, and their slaves in the mainstream media.

Let’s review the latest Toronto housing stats, released amid a blizzard of hormonal spray a few hours ago.

“Strong competition between buyers has exerted upward pressure on selling prices,” said the realtor spokesguy, quoted by the media. “Barring a substantial shift in the relationship between sales and listings, price growth is expected to continue through 2015.”

Really?

Here are a few things about the market you won’t see published, that any potential buyer or seller should know.

  • Detached home sales in the entire region of six million people (Canada’s largest market) have declined.
  • The real estate board once again secretly revised is year-ago statistics, and has overstated sales. Surprise.
  • Since last April there’s been 0% growth in average prices.
  • In fact the average price of a GTA property last month – $577,936 – is less than the average price was back in May ($585,204).
  • The average price in November was $10,000 less than it was the previous month.
  • After land transfer closing costs and commission, someone who bought a year ago (average price $538,881) and sold today has lost money – about five grand. But this was what we read in the paper: “According to the Toronto Real Estate Board today, the average price surged 7.4 per cent to $577,936. The MLS benchmark price rose even faster, by 7.7 per cent.”

Of course, the housing market is still attracting enough fools to engender bidding wars in the hot zone ($700,000 to $ 1 million). Beaters like the one I showed you days ago on Euclid Ave. are still changing hands for seven figures. Canadians are still adding $10 billion a month in net new mortgage debt. And the banks are still handing out home loans like candy at the lowest interest rates in history, while the financially illiterate masses continue to swoon under the realtors’ spell.

It’s true, all of it. I admit. And many entities, like this pathetic blog, remain amazed that so many can spend so much at such the wrong time. Even though most markets in Canada are now clearly entering a period of decline, and Calgary is seriously at risk, the momentum in Toronto and Vancouver could see more bloat before the troubles.

Owning property is cool. Many people take their definition from it. And doing it well can even make you some money. But it’s not the goal of life. A house will not pay you income when you’re old, and means serious risk when you’re young and in debt. There is a time to sell and a time to buy.  And, trust me, no reporter will ever get that right.

165 comments ↓

#1 Slow Canada on 12.04.14 at 6:36 pm

Thanks Garth, as always.

#2 Larry on 12.04.14 at 6:37 pm

Thank you Garth !

#3 David W on 12.04.14 at 6:38 pm

This greater fool theory also applies to stocks. You buy hoping another sucker will be willing to pay more. Depending on what you bought yesterday, you might just be the fool today after that 300 point drop.

Smart investors are diversified and balanced. You need a seven-figure portfolio to hold individual stocks and achieve enough diversification. — Garth

#4 Vancouver right? on 12.04.14 at 6:53 pm

I guess the tsx is going nowhere now., sell?

Sure thing – buy when assets rise and sell when they fall. Works every time. — Garth

#5 Dominoes Lining Up on 12.04.14 at 6:53 pm

Anyone else noticing more ads for home income programs?

I’ve been seeing a lot more CHIP type ads on tv and radio the last few weeks.

Maybe more fear is out there among retiring oomers?

#6 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 12.04.14 at 6:57 pm

BLACK SWAN ARRIVES: DIVIDEND CUTS…

…Troubles in Calgary’s oil patch hit a brick wall today with Canadian Oil Sand’s announcement of an upcoming 42 per cent dividend cut.

If you think those cuts will stop with only this company and that this WON’T affect real estate prices almost immediately, all over our fair land, then thou art nutzoid!

http://online.wsj.com/articles/canadian-oil-sands-cuts-dividend-citing-debt-load-and-crude-price-drop-1417654800

It is often the arrival of such a Black Swan that shakes up the troops even more, because most of us were looking over the prospects of higher interest rates or tomorrow’s Brent oil price, as market movers.

BUT, surprise, it’s happened on our home turf, through our back door, not from somewhere else.

BTW, late 2008 and early 2009 saw a giant shake-out in the oil patch with company after company shedding dividends.

ALSO happened in the financial sector with holders of certain closed-end mutual funds which were hacked down to alarmingly lower market prices by panicked shareholders (this after central bankers cut interest rates to practically zero).

Sure everything righted itself later, with untold amounts of funny money printing by numerous central banks, and we drive on.

But THIS.

Is this something different?

It will depend on energy pricing decisions yet to be made by THEM, overseas. Not us, as we are not a commodity price-dictating economic power house.

As for real estate in Canada, the current pricing structure is to shortly be taken out to the woodshed, for a good old fashioned come-downance. Careful of the splinters.

Meanwhile, on another economic matter: today the IMF announced that China has eclipsed the USA to become defacto the world’s largest economy by accepted accounting rules.

No kidding.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-official-america-is-now-no-2-2014-12-04

We may well be looking at an upcoming and unpleasant interlude for Canadians who believe borrowing money is cheap, endless, fine, fun and dandy. Sure.

The more things change the less they look the same, or something like that!

#7 Smoking Man on 12.04.14 at 7:07 pm

It doesn’t matter, the herd, the schooled are trained not to think.

The our education system by design is geared toward creating un thinking zombies, obeisance and trusting authority.

Trained to beilive a credible source, MSM.

The frindge, or people that are not frightened by the principal. The LOONS ones that the schooled are trained to identify as crazy will be ridiculed, no matter how many times they are right.

I’m living proof…

It is absolutely insane for a young couple to buy a house in Toronto at these prices.

But they will, years and years of memorization, regurgitation, and an obedience certificate on the wall convinces them they are smart.. And they will listen to authority… News papers..

This is why I remain very bullish on Toronto real estate.

You ain’t seen nothing yet.. Spring market will be madness…

Added some pictures from my trip on my blog.

#8 Cato the Elder on 12.04.14 at 7:13 pm

The problem is, no one really owns property anymore.

If you have a mortgage on it, the bank owns it. Don’t pay, and the bank confiscates it.

If you don’t have a mortgage on it, the government owns it. Don’t pay property taxes, and the government confiscates it.

Not only that, but there are no real incentives to improve your property (except self-fulfillment). If you increase the value of your property by making it more productive (farmland) or updating materials (renovations) you end up paying more taxes. AND you need to get permission first, so that costs money too.

Who the hell allowed the government to get this much power over our lives? This is totally out of control and ridiculous. Of course, it’s always promoted for our ‘safety’.

Well, I’d rather be a little less safe, and a lot more free.

#9 JSS on 12.04.14 at 7:15 pm

Notable dividend increases this week:

– BMO (+2.5%)
– CIBC (+3%)
– Enbridge (+33%)

Not all is bad!

#10 Yitzhak Rabin on 12.04.14 at 7:15 pm

The Seeking Alpha blogger is quite correct. So called commodity countries will be hard hit, disproportionately to the downside, as commodity prices fall. This is a resumption of the 2008 deflation that would have naturally taken hold were it not fought aggresively with QE.

However, as this puts tremendous fiscal pressure on overly indebted governments, their central bank lap-dogs will do everything possible to fight the trend. This is why more QE is in the pipeline. The economy that lives by QE, dies by QE.

The actions of central banks have us whipsawed violently between inflation and deflation. History shows that inflation is the preferred option of governments throughout time.

#11 Mark on 12.04.14 at 7:23 pm

This greater fool theory also applies to stocks. You buy hoping another sucker will be willing to pay more.

Not really. You can buy a portfolio of stocks (or stock ETFs, as Garth points out, for those without the 7 figure portfolios!), and merely sit there and collect dividends for the rest of eternity. Nobody actually needs to “pay more” for the stock. In fact, dividend investing actually works better over the long term if the price of the stock doesn’t go up and cashflows received in the accumulation phase can be re-invested efficiently into additional relatively low-priced stock.

Similar deal for long-term landlords. The worst thing to happen to landlords is a price bubble. All sorts of new supply comes into the market, and eventually damages the prices and rental prospects of existing property.

#12 I'm stupid on 12.04.14 at 7:27 pm

What I find the most amusing, is asking people who has all this money to buy Realestate at these prices. The answer is always the same; they’re are a lot of people with money or houses wouldn’t be selling. Then I ask another question that usually gets me a puzzled look. Who are these people, do you know any of them? Go ahead and try it, ask your dumb bil I can bet he responds the same way.

#13 Londoner on 12.04.14 at 7:31 pm

A couple of weeks ago I suggested newbie investors may want to load up on fixed income while equity indexes were soaring, then wait for the slight pull back before going into stocks. Well it looks like the pull back in equities has started. It’s not over yet, but at least you have a starting point for your portfolio. Happy trading.

#14 Chickenlittle on 12.04.14 at 7:32 pm

Cato #8:

Totally agree. It’s amazing how few rules people at the beginning of the 20th century had compared to how many we have now.
Rules have replaced wisdom.
A dog bites a kid at a Holt Renfrew. Let’s make a new rule: no dogs allowed at the store. Never mind that more people have been hurt or killed at stores by other people. Maybe we should ban people at stores.
Then again it doesn’t require mush brain power to follow rules.

#15 Chickenlittle on 12.04.14 at 7:34 pm

“Mush” should be “much”. Although they both work…

#16 not 1st on 12.04.14 at 7:35 pm

Garth, you mean Norway, the country with the rocking sovereign wealth fund?

And those ETFs you love and speak of every so often are chock full of ‘resource’ companies some of which are cutting dividends today. How would an asset like that appreciate if a commodity supercycle is ending?

Some ETFs hold Canadian resource stocks, some don’t. The TSX is 18% energy! so no surprise there. — Garth

#17 chasicakes on 12.04.14 at 7:42 pm

Goldman Sachs sells $600 million in mostly Canadian banking stocks in the last hour of trading on a Friday taking the TSX down 1% in a matter of minutes. Monday should be interesting!

#18 Realties.ca » The bloat on 12.04.14 at 7:43 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2014/12/04/the-bloat-2/ […]

#19 Edward on 12.04.14 at 7:45 pm

Here’s the conundrum. Sell your frothy real while you can and pour those assets into a frothy stock market.

And the safe stuff like bonds, prefereds, reits, may plop too.

Is a 7% return going forward a possibility?

The 10 year average for a portfolio of that nature is 7.3%, which included 2008. The people who stayed invested did fine. The people who talked like you got creamed. — Garth

#20 devore on 12.04.14 at 8:05 pm

#11 Mark

Not really. You can buy a portfolio of stocks (or stock ETFs, as Garth points out, for those without the 7 figure portfolios!), and merely sit there and collect dividends for the rest of eternity. Nobody actually needs to “pay more” for the stock. In fact, dividend investing actually works better over the long term

There is also value investing, which aims to buy underpriced companies and hold until the market reprices them fairly, or even on a broader scale with industry sectors.

Even during the darkest deepest economic downturns, there are always investment opportunities. Markets are incredibly diverse. These are things you can do when you don’t practice a one-asset strategy.

#21 SWL1976 on 12.04.14 at 8:06 pm

#8 Cato

Who the hell allowed the government to get this much power over our lives?

——————————–

The masses did, and not only that but the masses will be convinced that more government, tighter regulations, less privacy and freedom will be their saviour.

SM totaly gets it and the phrase he uses “obedience certificate” is spot on

Choppy choppy waters ahead folks the point of no return is pasing us by.

Hope you like your new dad. I hear he’s a real prick

#22 80'sKid6$4 on 12.04.14 at 8:08 pm

#7 Smoking Man

Can you please describe specifically how the Canadian education system teaches us to become zombies?
When I was in school, “regurgitation” was considered plagiarism and strongly discouraged. Newspapers and the internet were also not allowed as reference sources.
And the “cool” kids definitely weren’t buddies with the principal.

#23 devore on 12.04.14 at 8:08 pm

#12 I’m stupid

Then I ask another question that usually gets me a puzzled look. Who are these people, do you know any of them?

Ask them a related question, for an even more puzzled look in response: would/could you buy your own house for what you think it is worth, if not, how much would you pay for it?

#24 Mark on 12.04.14 at 8:12 pm

“pour those assets into a frothy stock market”

“Frothy stock market”? You mean the stock market that isn’t even back to 2008 levels? The stock market that has quadrupled its earnings over the past 10 years, yet is only trading up 20-25%?

#25 Bob Dole on 12.04.14 at 8:17 pm

Just joined my company match RRSP. Match 100% up to 5% of salary, 1 year vest – 4k free money a year for me. But there’s a catch – have to invest in Manulife mutual funds with high MER about 1.8 percent. Should I be concerned? or just roll with it? Making a 100% return with the match I figure

Trying to fill my TFSA too

-Bob

#26 Go west? on 12.04.14 at 8:21 pm

On OCT 22, 1981, the USA accumulated $1 TRILLION in debt. At that point, it had taken them 74,984 days (more than 205 years) to accumulate its first trillion in debt.
It would take less than five years to accumulate its 2nd trillion.
And they just hit $18 trillion in debt on last Friday, it has taken a measly 403 days to accumulate its most recent trillion.

#27 espressobob on 12.04.14 at 8:27 pm

#13 Londoner

Index investors ain’t trying to time the markets! Instead they learn to rebalance! Better yet, they become ‘Contrarian’! Read some books on the subject!

#28 Timmy on 12.04.14 at 8:27 pm

Why Canada’s jobs future is sinking like a stone
http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2014/12/01/Canada-Job-Future-Sinking/
Anyone stupid enough to still believe Harper has done a good job managing the economy should read this. We now have the lowest corporate tax rate in the OfD and are one of the least competitive countries.

#29 Mark on 12.04.14 at 8:49 pm

“How would an asset like that appreciate if a commodity supercycle is ending?”

Obviously declining oil prices aren’t great for oil and gas stocks. However, some participants in the energy sector, particularly in refining, tend to do better with lower cost feedstocks. Additionally, falling oil prices tend to imply falling labour costs. Labour-related inputs to the oilsands sector, a huge component of the cost of developing them, are likely to fall in the weeks/months/years ahead.

Furthermore, there’s a pretty good argument to be made that a lot of the declines in the oil and gas stocks are in the rear view mirror as they never really did return to even their 2008 levels. Some, like Talisman, are a mere fraction of their former levels, implying that a collapse in prices has already been priced in.

#30 TEMPLE on 12.04.14 at 8:53 pm

You need a seven-figure portfolio to hold individual stocks and achieve enough diversification. — Garth

No, you don’t. You always say this, even though there are mountains of studies showing that achieving index-like volatility requires somewhere between 20-50 stocks (depending on the study in question). Somehow, “diversification” seems to have turned into code for holding a lot of stocks in order to hide stock picking inability.

Besides, I wonder if you understand that your argument against individual stocks eats itself? How many ETFs do you need to be “diversified”? Based on what? And at what allocation? An investor picking ETFs in proportions that diverge from the total market is essentially stock-picking with different sized piles of stocks. This is especially true with the cap-weighted ETFs that are disproportionately invested in the biggest stocks.

TEMPLE

#31 Smoking Man on 12.04.14 at 8:58 pm

#22 80’sKid6$4 on 12.04.14 at 8:08 pm
#7 Smoking Man

Can you please describe specifically how the Canadian education system teaches us to become zombies?
When I was in school, “regurgitation” was considered plagiarism and strongly discouraged. Newspapers and the internet were also not allowed as reference sources.
And the “cool” kids definitely weren’t buddies with the principal.
………

If you don’t know than its already to late for you..

http://jonrappoport.wordpress.com/2014/12/03/education-programming-101-destroy-logic/

http://jonrappoport.wordpress.com/2014/12/02/independent-education-the-crisis-and-the-crossroad/

#32 devore on 12.04.14 at 9:03 pm

#8 Cato

Who the hell allowed the government to get this much power over our lives?

Democracy did. Enjoy your stay.

#33 Bob on 12.04.14 at 9:06 pm

@Bob Dole

Try to get your employer to renegotiate with Manulife. Mine did and now we have access to Mawer funds through Manulife with a 0.5% management fee.

#34 No Name For You on 12.04.14 at 9:06 pm

Had a meeting with a very smart, business man today. He’s servicing a large mortgage right now but looking for a new place in Surrey. He’s complaining at length because there are so many places for sale right now it’s hard to see them all. With the same breath he complains about how hard it is to sell his house. It’s staring him right in the face but he just can’t see it. Housing can turn smart people stupid.

#35 espressobob on 12.04.14 at 9:08 pm

Why do so many newbies focus on Canadian equity? At 4% of the world economy?

Global investing is the other 96% minus Canada. With all these new ETFs to reflect these markets, why the hell do so many worry about what’s going on at home?

#36 Daisy Mae on 12.04.14 at 9:11 pm

#4 Vancouver right?: “I guess the tsx is going nowhere now., sell?”

Sure thing – buy when assets rise and sell when they fall. Works every time. — Garth

***********

Garth is being facetious. LOL

#37 Daisy Mae on 12.04.14 at 9:20 pm

#5 Dominoes Lining Up: “I’ve been seeing a lot more CHIP type ads on tv and radio the last few weeks.
Maybe more fear is out there among retiring oomers?”

******************

No. Just CHIP drumming up business….

#38 omg the original on 12.04.14 at 9:21 pm

And just to ensure the point was made to the gullible, horny masses, there was this sub-head: “Toronto home prices surge.”
——————–

As I have posted here before……..

…Prices in Victoria are down year over year for about 5 years now……..

……..yet few people know this, since the media just regurgitates the local RE boards press releases without question……..

……..there is always some statistic that the board can point to as positive, whether its m/m sales, ytd sales, m/m prices increases, or the happy standby next year projected price increase…….

………people do not realize prices are down until they go to sell their investment condo that they paid $480k for in 2010 and is now worth $420K

#39 gladiator on 12.04.14 at 9:22 pm

@32 devore:

“democracy” in its current state is a travesty. Gustave LeBon, Andy Bernays and others helped the elites hijack this concept and brainwash the masses into believing that they live in a democratic society, while the rulers get things done their way. They dumb down the population through schools (compare curricula from 100 years ago with the current ones), they promote circuses (so you think you can dance, the voice, et. al.), they allow people to “choose” their governments from a small and controlled group of parties to make things appear fair. It is like having the freedom to choose between Pepsi and Coke.

Nowadays’ democracy is sheep choosing who will shear them, and sheared they are. Always.

I will stop here. The rant would be too long.

#40 Freedom First on 12.04.14 at 9:23 pm

“………the real estate cartel, and their slaves in the mainstream media”………….and, “……….Toronto housing stats, released amid a blizzard of hormonal spray”………Love this Blog! Always nothing but the truth, delivered with literary eloquence. Perfect, Garth.
I think Garth makes new friends every day he posts. I mean, who wouldn’t appreciate the truth delivered on a free Blog? Let alone this being the #1 Canadian Personal Finance Blog.

#41 espressobob on 12.04.14 at 9:24 pm

#30 TEMPLE

Maybe you should present this argument to professional ‘fund managers’ who typically underperform their benchmarks!

Index investors don’t seek to outperform, but rather to match market returns. We beat these pro’s most of the time! Sorry.

#42 WOOF on 12.04.14 at 9:24 pm

#27 espressobob

I’m not really sure I understand how index investors are “Contrarian.” Seems to me, when books such as “Investing For Canadians For Dummies” and countless others titles found at your local library contain nearly identical portfolio recommendations, there ain’t much “Contrarian,”or original going on. Not knocking the approach, just curious if people consider themselves “Contrarian” because they are invested in the market, as opposed to someone who is not invested at all, or if there is just a bit of ego stroking going on.

Are we experiencing an ego bubble? And if so, when do you predict it will pop?

#43 Dienekes on 12.04.14 at 9:30 pm

I just want to say:
Thanks Air Canada. Today you paid for every flight ticket I have ever purchased.
Oil stocks may be sucking it, but at least the dividends are great and have sent airlines on a tear.
Oh, and realestate sucks

#44 omg the original on 12.04.14 at 9:31 pm

N’s theory is that certain commodity-producing countries which have benefited from high demand and high prices for the last decade (that would include us) are now the economic equivalent of lazy, fat, entitled twerps who watched the welfare cheques roll in
——————

Of course the big question is what happens to commodity drive economies when they stop allowing their commodities to be developed.

Try getting a new mine or pipeline approved in BC. Everyone loved a pipeline from Alberta to the east coast until the greenies start pressuring Ontario/Quebec politicians, now there are “conditions”.

In BC the idea is that we will forego resource development in favour of tourism jobs around the pristine wildness. Of course all those tourism jobs pay $12/hr.

#45 Smoking Man on 12.04.14 at 9:35 pm

As Huxley called it perfectly in the 50s

“Within the next generation I believe that the world’s leaders will discover that infant conditioning and narco-hypnosis are more efficient, as instruments of government, than clubs and prisons, and that the lust for power can be just as completely satisfied by suggesting people into loving their servitude as by flogging them and kicking them into obedience.”

It was done with schooling….

#46 Nomad on 12.04.14 at 9:36 pm

I want to thank all of you who sold your TD shares today as it fell 5%. National Bank is also 8% below it’s peak which was quite appreciated. I also want to thank you for selling Painted Ponies (my favorite gas exploration, mostly because of its website…) which fell 8% more today, even if its target just got set 45% above what it is now, by two big banks. The list goes on.

And the official tax-loss selling period hasn’t even started. It starts tomorrow.

Please panic and sell. Look at it like a gift for a good cause: funding my son’s university studies.

#47 Retired Boomer - WI on 12.04.14 at 9:37 pm

Well, been chuckling at the squawking tonight over a single days performance on the TSX. Silly, in a word.

Decided to see how my Vanguard portfolio has been doing over the past decade. this was a 70/30 now 60/40 stock and fixed income mix of index funds.

The BIGGEST trick here is not screwing with it when the market is throwing up! It DOES that from time to time.

10 years 8.9%

5 years 10.4%

3 years 10.7%

1 year 6.9%

Yeah, I can live with that. How about you?

-cheers-

#48 Drill Baby Drill on 12.04.14 at 9:38 pm

Dear Pathetic Blog : I have thought about the very thing you bring up about our current situation in Alberta. Our oil to market deliveries are structural and worrying. Without access to tidewater Alta only has the USA to rely on for purchasing our oil exports. Alta needs access to international markets via the Energy East pipeline, Trans Mountain P/L in BC and NWT P/L to Alaska. Without these access points Alta has to live with the current pricing discount which puts us at the whim of the USA.

#49 Dienekes on 12.04.14 at 9:38 pm

I have to agree with Smoking Man
The education system preaches that they create open minded people. But the inverse is true. It tends to create people with a narrow focus. Trained not to think freely, but to think like their professor.
And I might add, is the prerequisite to receiving a PHD to no longer bath, or brush teeth?
It has to be asked!

#50 omg the original on 12.04.14 at 9:39 pm

MAKE MILLIONS FROM TRADING PENNY STOCK!

Got your attention – good – its all BS.

There are some people here that like to throw around how much money they have made from “playing the market”.

Rule of thumb – everyone like to tell you about their winners and forgets their losers. Its true around the water cooler as much as its true here.

So don’t get stars in your eyes, look for the nice solid investments that will get you a realistic 6% to 8% average return.

Do people trade and make millions? – maybe, but if they do it likely as much luck as it is skill. If they exist they are 1 in 100,000.

And those traders likely do not hang around giving advice on a free blog when they could be trading to their next million.

#51 Victoria Real Estate Update on 12.04.14 at 9:45 pm

Let’s take a look at what house prices in Victoria have done over the past year.

. . . . . . . . . . . . .House Prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .(Compared To October 2013). . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+14%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .x . . .
+13%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x. . . . . .
+12%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x. .x. . . . . . . . .
+11% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x. . . . . . . . . . . . .
+10% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 9%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 8%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 7%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .x . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 6%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . x . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 4% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 3% . . . . . . . . . . .x. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 2%. . . . . . . . . x . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 1%. . . . . . . x . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..0%. . x*. x*. *. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 1% . . . . . . . . . *. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 2% . . . . . . . . . . . .* . *. . . . *. .*. .*. .*. . . . . . .
– 3%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. . . . . . . . . . . * . . . .
– 4%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. . .
—————————————————————————————
. . . . .Oct. . . . . Jan. . . . . April. . . . . July. . . . . Oct.
. . . . 2013. . . . 2014. . . . .2014. . . . .2014. . . . 2014.

Hamilton = x
Victoria = *

(Source: Brookfield’s index)

Over the past year, house prices in Victoria have fallen almost 4%, while prices in Hamilton have shot higher by over 14%.

Brookfield’s latest October index price data also indicates that prices in Victoria are lower than at any point since August 2007 (even lower than 2009’s lowest point).
(link)

It can easily be argued that there isn’t a single more powerful source of housing market stimulus than that of (today’s) historically low (emergency level) interest rates.

Hamilton’s housing market has reacted as expected to this powerful stimulus by posting strong price gains over the past year. On the other hand, Victoria’s housing market has shown nothing but weakness (with lower prices), despite being subjected to the same stimulus.

If historically low mortgage rates can’t stop Victoria’s price decline, what will?

Let’s take a look at sales.

So far in 2014, single family home sales are 27% below Victoria’s long-term average (January through November).

. Total Single Family Home Sales
. . . . . . Greater Victoria. . . . . . .
. . (January through November). .
. . . . .(Compared to 2007). . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2007…*********************
2014…********
2013…****
2012…**
2011…****
2010…******
2009…****************
2008…********
2006…****************
——————————————————-
. . . . .-40%. . . . . .-20%. . . . . .0%

(Source: Victoria’s R/E board)

2007 represents an average year for SFH sales in Victoria (population adjusted).

SFH sales have been extremely weak in Victoria since 2010.
* 2012 – lowest SFH sales total since 1982.
* 2013 – second lowest SFH sales total since 1984.
* 2011 – third lowest SFH sales total since 1984.

Limiting a comparison of 2014’s sales to sales in 2013 only is, obviously, extremely misleading.

In order for SFH prices to stop falling, sales totals would need to improve dramatically from current levels. If historically low (emergency level) interest rates can’t push SFH sales back to near-normal (2007) levels in Victoria, what will? The answer: significantly lower prices.

Prices are definitely on the way down in Victoria, however, Victoria’s housing bubble has only partially deflated. Overall, Victoria’s housing market is still extremely overvalued. Victoria’s bubble is comparable to the bubbliest markets of the 2006 US housing bubble.

In the US, it was the bubbliest cities (in general) that began to correct first (think Victoria) and it was these markets that ended up being, by far, the biggest price losers. It makes a lot of sense that the weakest markets heading into the US (country-wide) price correction ended up with the biggest overall price declines. The same will happen in Canada.

The easiest way to understand just how bubbly Victoria’s housing market is right now is to compare prices in Victoria with prices in several US cities.

Florida:

$180 K, Jacksonville, FL (5 beds, 3 baths, 3,079 sq. ft., built in 2008, attached double garage)
$181 K, Port St. Lucie, FL (4 beds, 2 baths, 3,117 sq. ft., built in 2014, attached double garage)
$130 K, Spring Hill, FL (4 beds, 2 baths, 3,000 sq. ft., built in 2006, attached double garage)

Arizona:

$140 K, Coolidge, AZ (Phoenix) (5 beds, 3 baths, 4,156 sq. ft., built in 2005, attached 3 car garage)
$150 K, Maricopa, AZ (Phoenix) (4 beds, 3 baths, 3,255 sq. ft., built in 2005, attached double garage)
$160 K, Casa Grande, AZ (Phoenix) (4 beds, 3 baths, 3,071 sq. ft., built in 2006, attached double garage)

Nevada:

$230 K, Las Vegas, NV (4 beds, 3 baths, 3,043 sq. ft., built in 2013, attached double garage)
$236 K, Las Vegas, NV (5 beds, 4 baths, 3,001 sq. ft., built in 2006, attached 3 car garage)
$250 K, Las Vegas, NV (4 beds, 3 baths, 3,856 sq. ft., built in 2007, attached double garage)

Girls and guys, do not buy a house in Victoria at this time. Wait for lower prices.

Until next time – Cheers!

#52 NoName on 12.04.14 at 9:48 pm

#4 Vancouver right?

#Sell,Sell,Sell
http://youtu.be/S8H2FIf1oH4

#53 Mr. Frugal on 12.04.14 at 9:52 pm

Air Canada is up 34% in the past month. Cheap oil is not hurting everyone!

#54 espressobob on 12.04.14 at 9:57 pm

#42 WOOF

Contrarians are opportunistic! Nothing more. The ‘buy and hold’ is fine along with rebalancing, no problem.

Mr. market on the other hand from time to time offers a discount sale like REITs a year ago, or the October selloff. Nice!

Selling high as in taking profit never gets old! It’s the way we’re wired! The number one mistake in my investing shtick in the past was the failure to do so!

A video might help?

http://www.investopedia.com/video/play/what-is-contrarian-investing/

Already posted this a while back.

#55 For those about to flop.. on 12.04.14 at 10:07 pm

Re#17.
What calendar you lookin’ at?

#56 Smoking Man on 12.04.14 at 10:07 pm

#50 omg the original on 12.04.14 at 9:39 pm

Yes and no… Penny stocks suck..

However you can make millions trading batman and Camel Toe.. Clearly defined entry and exit points. Trick is to stick to a time frame.. Daily, stick with daily. Month chart, or year chart.. I use six month chart. Average length of time on a trade, 5 months if it’s running, two weeks if it’s a miss..

Your shorting batman. No more that 3 false starts, small loses. Then boom big bucks..

It works.. Fear and greed in full view and visible..

Requires extrem control over your mind with no second guessing…

#57 Mark on 12.04.14 at 10:10 pm

“No, you don’t. You always say this, even though there are mountains of studies showing that achieving index-like volatility requires somewhere between 20-50 stocks (depending on the study in question). Somehow, “diversification” seems to have turned into code for holding a lot of stocks in order to hide stock picking inability.”

Let’s be realistic, how many of us really have the time to actually sit down and “pick stocks”? Not very many. And those who do attempt to ‘pick stocks’, the evidence is fairly clear, from study after study, that the index is not generally beaten after commissions and taxes are taken into account.

If you buy a million bucks worth of, for instance XIU, it will cost you on the order of $1700/year to hold that. In exchange for your $1700/year, nearly all accounting associated with holding 60 stocks is done neatly for you. You don’t have to spend any time reviewing offering documents when there is a takeover. You only have to keep track of a single cost base — that of XIU, not 60 individual cost bases’. And re-investment is relatively simple. Additionally, you can use multiple ETFs in a rebalancing strategy to gain additional return, and even access asset classes, such as foreign stocks, for which the available research available from Canadian-suitable sources is not anywhere near as comprehensive.

Contrast this with the stock picking approach, where you’ll probably be tempted to glue yourself to the computer, or worse, BNN, for a significant amount of time. You’ll likely be, through personal biases, unwilling to consider sectors, particularly out of favour sectors. When it comes time to re-invest those dividends, you’ll always be having to make decisions. And top it all off, statistically you’ll probably underperform the index over the long term.

“Air Canada is up 34% in the past month. Cheap oil is not hurting everyone!”

We’ll see if they can sustain it. I highly doubt, given that an overwhelming amount of the growth in air traffic in the past decade has been personal/leisure in nature. With obvious ties to rising home equity. Trust me, airlines will have their “Wile-E-Coyote” moment. And if some of the latest fare sales I’m seeing, like $650 Toronto-Singapore (incl. tax) roundtrips, are any indication, there’s definitely a real slowdown a’foot.

#58 Mark on 12.04.14 at 10:15 pm

“It can easily be argued that there isn’t a single more powerful source of housing market stimulus than that of (today’s) historically low (emergency level) interest rates. “

I’d suggest that the availability of $900B of subprime mortgage insurance, through the CMHC, has been just as much of a factor as the low interest rates. The low rates are needed, and will likely continue for the next 5-10 years, simply because the economy is in such dire straights that such are needed. However, risk premia on mortgage loans have been significantly suppressed by the government providing below-long-term cost subprime mortgage insurance. You can definitely ‘argue’ that its the rates, but there’s definitely the subprime mortgage factor in play here as well.

#59 B Nimble on 12.04.14 at 10:18 pm

CRA does the nasty ‘on the low down’ as people s’suddenly’ find themselves under audit and find their TFSA’s locked.

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/12/04/tfsa-holders-under-audit-banned-from-withdrawals-as-dealers-fear-getting-stuck-with-tax-bills/?__lsa=675c-e6c8

The TFSA is dead…..who would risk an audit now that the CRA has proven what they are really up to. The CRA had set forth no criteria for the audits prior to the audit attack…no stone will be left unturned….your entire investment acct is at risk…they will move from one acct to another doing their best to terrorize you into settling for some amount you probably don’t even owe. The TFSA has proven to be a trojan horse designed to get access to your savings so that the CRA can get in there and start pillaging. Get your cash out while you can.

#60 Andrew Woburn on 12.04.14 at 10:20 pm

Cato the Elder on 12.04.14 at 7:13 pm

Who the hell allowed the government to get this much power over our lives? This is totally out of control and ridiculous. Of course, it’s always promoted for our ‘safety’.
==================

Yes, according to current ways of thinking, it’s a miracle that any children raised in the Fifties survived into adulthood.

#61 Sheane Wallace on 12.04.14 at 10:24 pm

those rocks of stability, Columbia, Peru and Brazil.
……………..
All these countries have a future. Specially Columbia and Brazil. Much brighter future with growing middle class.
Let’s laugh at them while we can, it won’t be long.
As for the weather…..

#62 kg on 12.04.14 at 10:30 pm

Being candid, eh ?

#63 Mark on 12.04.14 at 10:31 pm

“Why do so many newbies focus on Canadian equity? At 4% of the world economy?”

Canada is attractive because its long-term returns are consistent with that of equities globally. Canadian equities have spent a long time out of favour, relatively speaking, and valuations are quite low, especially compared to US-based counterparts. And the dividend tax credit provides a significant boost to the return an actual taxable investor will see compared to investing in foreign stocks over the long term.

I bet that you’ll find the same “home team” bias in practically every country in which you research. The abnormally low Canadian dollar also makes buying foreign equities very expensive at this point, and hedging is wrought with other problems. Additionally, it can be argued that most large Canadian companies are significantly exposed to the economies of foreign nations.

Personally I think what ends up hurting Canadian investors is not so much that they’re overwhelmingly investing in Canadian companies. But rather, that Canada’s publicly listed companies tend to be concentrated in sectors that have spent a long time out of favour. The gold mining industry, for instance — has destroyed shareholder value for much of the past 30 years. Not really the fault of the managers or that of the industry, but rather, a reflection of conditions in the global economy that have not been favourable for the price of gold. Of course, long-term underperformance eventually gives way to long-term over-performance, and the cyclicality of gold and gold related assets tends to be very deep with a long period.

#64 Snowboid on 12.04.14 at 10:36 pm

In the meantime, the 30 year mortgage rate in the US is down to 3.89%.

Of course, unlike Canada – that’s the maximum rate locked in for the entire 30 years!

#65 Mark on 12.04.14 at 10:49 pm

“TFSA has proven to be a trojan horse designed to get access to your savings so that the CRA can get in there and start pillaging. Get your cash out while you can.”

Wow, talk about conspiracy theory. Basically, the CRA doesn’t have a leg to stand on here as there’s no prohibition on ‘trading’ eligible securities in a TFSA (actually one of its selling points!), and the ‘issue’ only affects dramatically less than 1% of TFSA holders. Who, if they could make those sums of money inside their TFSA without much risk, probably could make multiples of such outside the TFSA. Rare people indeed. I suspect that for every such person who exists, there’s probably a few people who put 100% of their TFSA’s into the gold stocks during the 2011/2012 peak, and have lost 90% or more of their investment. The TFSA is not going to be shut down or confiscated because of the actions of a few.

If anything, the government should be pleased that there are people within the economy who are so good at allocating capital that they can turn $35k into $200k. Probability of the government actually changing the rules to favour the CRA is practically nil. The CRA will likely get a strong rebuke from a judge when these cases make their way to Tax Court, and the dealers could find themselves liable for a significant quantum of damages if they refuse lawful withdrawal instructions.

#66 not 1st on 12.04.14 at 10:51 pm

Mark, your retainer bonus from blackrock will be in the mail shortly.

#67 Smoking Man on 12.04.14 at 10:52 pm

Been reading the twitter posts of the reports who were stocking Rob Ford.. The crap the they write about.

Well educated individuals, degrees up the ying yang.

But there schooling comes out.. Let’s pick on the Fat kid, it’s safe, principle well give us a dirty look when all are watching, but high five us in private..

Why don’t they camp out on Larry Silverstein drive way and ask him.. How did building 7 fall?

Corner Bird or Harpo. At a press conference and ask him about those perfectly round, 33mm holes on MH17 cockpit panels.. Why the 3 countries in the investigation have the right to Vito any findings. Were are the tower to plane communication tapes.

Again Huxley called the future perfectly.

#68 sideline sitter on 12.04.14 at 10:57 pm

I own real estate, but rent where I live… my commercial property earns 7% and cost WAY less than residential around it.

There’s always money to make in Real Estate, but you gotta make sure the numbers work!!!

…and yes, I’m tooting my horn!

#69 Smoking Man on 12.04.14 at 11:03 pm

My point re above posts, real estate purchase fall under the same influence, the programmed illogical mind.

Fit in with your class mates, buy that million dollar bungalow, you don’t want to look like the Fat kid down in the principals office..

Spring Market will shatter records.

#70 Cato the Elder on 12.04.14 at 11:09 pm

Re: #67 Smoking man

Everyone knows that a few fires contained within offices is enough to bring down an entire building. And when Silverstein said ‘we decided to pull it’, he wasn’t referring to demolition slang to demolish the building. *sarcasm

I agree with you that Huxley had it right. We’re in an age of a ‘blending’ so to speak of Huxley’s brave new world and Orwell’s 1984.

Plenty of information available (online) but no one wants to read it. And we’re being spied on.

The really depressing thing about understanding all this is that, the next generation of leaders have already been compromised. They’re finished before they’ve even started to promote policies.

How? The intelligence agencies have a humungous blackmail repository. They will draw on it to blackmail ANY future/current politicians that threaten their power.

Any controversial statement, sexual relationship, opinion, or decision they’ve ever made under the assumption that it was private will be used against them.

And people are complete and utter IDIOTS if they think how one conducts themselves in their personal life ought to disqualify them from public office.

I don’t care what you stick in you or others, what I care about is what the hell you’re doing with my tax dollars and my liberties.

WAKE UP.

#71 Cato the Elder on 12.04.14 at 11:16 pm

Re: #61 Sheane

Strange isn’t it that all the countries around the world that have lived under decades of socialist rule are all headed in the direction of less government – perhaps they know something we don’t?

Yet, the average Canadian wants more government for their pet project. They are content to continue to squander our lead which while once massive is quickly narrowing.

Had we continued to progress with limited government, over the past several decades the average work week would consist of very few hours and we’d be able to buy pretty much anything. Everything from around the world would be dirt cheap as our productivity would be unparalleled.

Instead, our politicians are determined to continue to inflate the currency, destroy savings, wipe out capital, and eliminate entrepreneurial incentives.

All because they listen to the very same whining segment of the population that wants more governmental control, while simultaneously complaining about a lack of good paying jobs. The hypocrisy is lost on them, for if it were even pointed out, they probably don’t have the intellect to understand it.

#72 John in Mtl on 12.04.14 at 11:17 pm

@ #44 omg the original on 12.04.14 at 9:31 pm:
In BC the idea is that we will forego resource development in favour of tourism jobs around the pristine wildness. Of course all those tourism jobs pay $12/hr.

When all the clean air, earth and water and all that is sustained by this, is destroyed by resource (over)development, you can go and eat the pipeline and drink tarsands toxic sludge to sustain yourself.

#73 Gem of the Ocean on 12.04.14 at 11:19 pm

Yo. It’s Colombia with an “o.”

#74 Larry Laffer on 12.04.14 at 11:22 pm

#59 B Nimble

That’s a non-event which clearly doesn’t warrant such teenage-like over-reaction. (Or should we rather say hysteria?) Those people have their TFSA audited are suspected of operating their TFSA as day-traders, which is not their intended use and is specifically forbidden.

#75 chapter 9 on 12.04.14 at 11:25 pm

Not good news for B.C. The $36 billion Pacific Northwest LNG project has been shelved. low oil prices!!

#76 Porsche on 12.04.14 at 11:33 pm

Of course airline stocks are up because of cheaper oil

Is your ticket to the Caribbean any cheaper

Americans love cheap oil, it revs the economy so it’s not going up anytime soon

The Americans can outlast OPEC too

#77 Porsche on 12.04.14 at 11:40 pm

You all forget about mining stocks?

They’ve been in the review mirror for 5 years

Why should oil be any different?

#78 Kjempeflott on 12.04.14 at 11:52 pm

If I recall correctly, all Norwegians are technically millionaires due to their sovereign wealth fund
http://business.time.com/2014/01/10/every-norwegian-is-now-a-millionaire-kind-of/

Are Canadians also millionaires because of the real estate they think they own(which is really owned by the banks and the government)?

#79 espressobob on 12.04.14 at 11:54 pm

#63 Mark

Global index investors really don’t care about the TSX Composite! Boring! Commodity based! Gold?

http://www.blackrock.com/ca/individual/en/products/239848/ishares-sptsx-global-gold-index-etf

Market timing? I’ll take a diversified approach any day over speculation! By the way, pull up the ten year chart! Again, boring.

Canadian dividend is well worth holding in a non-registered account for the taxation advantage.

#80 Larry1 on 12.04.14 at 11:57 pm

> Smart investors are diversified and balanced. You need
> a seven-figure portfolio to hold individual stocks and
> achieve enough diversification. — Garth

Why the 7 fig threshold? Stocks + ETFs via a discount brokerage works fine. A $1M balanced’n diversified portfolio should scale down to $100K unless one insists on buying board lots.

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.14 at 12:03 am

@#71 cato the erratic
“The intelligence agencies have a humungous blackmail repository. They will draw on it to blackmail ANY future/current politicians that threaten their power…..”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I notice you havent talked about “Chem Trails and the ensuing mind control experiments”
Are you secretly one of “Them”?

#82 Treasury yields fall on 12.05.14 at 12:13 am

Long-term Treasury yields fall for second-straight session

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-yields-inch-lower-as-investors-await-jobs-report-2014-12-04

#83 kommykim on 12.05.14 at 12:14 am

RE #42 WOOF on 12.04.14 at 9:24 pm
, as opposed to someone who is not invested at all, or if there is just a bit of ego stroking going on.
Are we experiencing an ego bubble? And if so, when do you predict it will pop?

After a bit more stroking.

#84 Nemesis on 12.05.14 at 12:15 am

#PreventingArmaggedonCanBeSoTimeConsuming… #DidIMissAnything? #NeverMind!… #YaJustCan’tBeatTheAllDay”MorningAfter”Feeling… #GoOn… #YouKnowYourSergeantMajorWantsAKiss…
#MagnanimousHostsWill… #JustHaveToSettleForEither… #BanditryOrDorothy…

http://youtu.be/4tJ9Mq8nCM8

#85 kommykim on 12.05.14 at 12:17 am

RE: #81 Larry1 on 12.04.14 at 11:57 pm
> Smart investors are diversified and balanced. You need a seven-figure portfolio to hold individual stocks and achieve enough diversification. — Garth

Why the 7 fig threshold? Stocks + ETFs via a discount brokerage works fine. A $1M balanced’n diversified portfolio should scale down to $100K unless one insists on buying board lots

A bit out of date MER wise, but an interesting tool showing you if it’s worth your while to “unwrap” an ETF portfolio:
http://www.ndir.com/cgi-bin/ETFsVsStocks.cgi

#86 Cato the Elder on 12.05.14 at 12:20 am

Re: #79 Kjem

They only have a tenuous claim to the money. As long as the wealth ‘fund’ is in the hands of the government, anything can happen. They could leave it in the administration of the international squid Goldman Sachs and watch it be destroyed like so many others.

I don’t trust centralized power of any kind. That money should be issued to the people immediately. Every citizen of Norway should have a share certificate in their house giving them legal claim to a part ownership.

#87 Smoking Man on 12.05.14 at 12:24 am

Camel toe, and batman trading.. As obvious as dings.

That being elevator dings, one ding for up, two dings for down..

90% of humanity don’t know… Yet the blind know..

The irony…

#88 SWL1976 on 12.05.14 at 12:26 am

#39 gladiator

Nowadays’ democracy is sheep choosing who will shear them, and sheared they are. Always.

—————————

True that. Never before in known history have we had so much information about everything at our finger tips, yet blank stares from the masses. Its sad how critical thinking skills are a thing of the past. Just google it? Is all this technology and our “smart” phones really making us smarter? I think not.

Anyone who takes the time to research and study 9/11 or recent geopolitical events will see there is a very different story than what you have been and are being told. The link SM provided about the modern education system summed all this up nicely

Majority rules… Doesn’t work in mental insitutions

#89 kommykim on 12.05.14 at 12:31 am

RE: What’s a ‘tweet’? — Garth

It’s from that little bird on the right hand side of your blog:
http://twitter.com/garthturner
;-)

#90 Sunshine on 12.05.14 at 12:32 am

“Smart investors are diversified and balanced. You need
> a seven-figure portfolio to hold individual stocks and
> achieve enough diversification. — Garth”

Don’t agree…I became a millionaire by starting to invest my rent money ( sub 1000) on penny stocks using the hall phone at uni when the VSE was still there. Retired the first time at 42. I’m 60 now…still an unbalanced millionaire. My job is to swim everyday for at least 4 hours. The tanning is best in the water. Don’t drink, don’t smoke, don’t stress, don’t work. That’s the plan.

The lumps are there certainly….like this months energy swoon..but that means nothing to me….I keep a large cash position at all times …15%….to last years of negative action if need be. In the meantime dividends keep flowing and I use that to reinvest in stocks at lower prices…and that creates more cash flow. You can’t do that with bonds that pay close to nothing and ETF’s.

#91 Smoking Man on 12.05.14 at 12:48 am

Damn this Jd is going down smooth.

Trying to figure out what I was about to post..
I’m reaching.. Shit, drawing a blank.

Something about a dog… Damn.

It was on the tip of my typing thumb.

I give up, it was a good one…

#92 B Nimble on 12.05.14 at 1:26 am

Probability of the government actually changing the rules to favour the CRA is practically nil. The CRA will likely get a strong rebuke from a judge when these cases make their way to Tax Court, and the dealers could find themselves liable for a significant quantum of damages if they refuse lawful withdrawal instructions.”

The trouble with this level of trust and naivety is that the CRA is already auditing massive numbers of people and freezing assets ( reported in national news) even though there are no rules set up for them to do so.

This is no time for apologies. The fact is that the CRA has illegally expanded it’s authority and no one in government has moved to stop them. So…nice try shouting down the truth tellers in favor of the bandits….and btw…are you working for the CRA?

You have obviously never been to ‘tax court’…..tax court is the CRA. You will naively spend thousands on accounting only to find out that if you have the ability to pay an unfair judgement…the ‘tax court’ will require you to pay…..fairness under the law doesn’t apply with the CRA….there is no fairness in ‘tax court’.

#93 Nemesis on 12.05.14 at 2:14 am

#Oh.. #WhatTheHell… #MusicalAfterThoughtsForSaltierDogz… #Turn…Turn…Turner?

“There is a time to sell and a time to buy.” – Hon.GT

http://youtu.be/eiprqeaydik

[NoteToGT: TheGhostsOfChristmasPast… have granted me an AllAccessBackStage to BuffySt. on FantasyI. next week. Go figure, eh… Right. Definitely, no shaving… probably a serious WardrobeReview, too. Shit – what would Paul Carr do {sorry Mr. Taibbi, you only wish}?…]…

#94 Dang It on 12.05.14 at 2:17 am

Smoking Man on 12.04.14 at 9:35 pm

As Huxley called it perfectly in the 50s

“Within the next generation I believe that the world’s leaders will discover that infant conditioning and narco-hypnosis are more efficient, as instruments of government, than clubs and prisons, and that the lust for power can be just as completely satisfied by suggesting people into loving their servitude as by flogging them and kicking them into obedience.”

It was done with schooling….
————————–

That was in the 40s

#95 Tony on 12.05.14 at 2:47 am

Re: #24 Mark on 12.04.14 at 8:12 pm

Look at the P/E ratios on the American indexes and that’s with bogus accounting. None of us will ever see an overvalued market again like this in our lifetimes.

#96 @Cato on 12.05.14 at 3:23 am

be careful…

#97 RealistvsExtremist on 12.05.14 at 5:35 am

Meanwhile in “Murica” singing white Christmas is racist.

Classic case of the bankers pitting two sides against each other. They have been doing this for millennia. This time with instant communication….will be different.

WCW I is coming soon

http://dcbeacon.com/darius-rucker-bashed-on-social-media-for-singing-that-racist-classic-white-christmas-at-christmas-tree-lighting/

#98 Londoner on 12.05.14 at 5:54 am

#27 espressobob

My suggestions were for newbie investors who were sitting in cash and worried about getting into equity indexes at this level. In fact, in my earlier post about fixed income, I even said “don’t think of this as timing the market, more like rebalancing before you begin”.

And what’s with all the explanation marks? You need to take it easy on the java guv.

Btw – keep your books… it sounds like you need to read them again!

#99 Baph on 12.05.14 at 8:05 am

CBC has great documentary about condos. Shattering glass and illusions: http://www.cbc.ca/doczone/episodes//the-condo-game

#100 Kenchie on 12.05.14 at 10:17 am

Wowaweewa. 321,000 jobs. Not baaaad for the Dysfunctional States of America.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-05/payrolls-in-u-s-surge-by-most-since-early-2012-as-wages-pick-up.html

#101 Kenchie on 12.05.14 at 10:17 am

Damn, Turner, you’re fast.

#102 Appreciate the humour - thanks! on 12.05.14 at 10:22 am

“released amid a blizzard of hormonal spray” …priceless.

#103 Yanniel on 12.05.14 at 10:26 am

“Warning: Stocks Will Collapse by 50%”

–> http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNewsIntl/stock-market-crash-warren-buffett-indicator/2014/10/03/id/598461/

Garth, a couple of lines about this, please.

Thanks.

#104 miketheengineer on 12.05.14 at 10:41 am

Garth et al:

“CDC issues flu vaccine apology: this year’s vaccine doesn’t work”

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/video/cdc-flu-vaccine-good-match-current-flu-27359114

and

http://www.naturalnews.com/047890_flu_vaccines_CDC_apology_medical_fraud.html

#105 Grantmi on 12.05.14 at 10:43 am

Yup. USA up 321,000 yobs. And we’re down 10,000

Stay tuned!!!

#106 Jake Anderson on 12.05.14 at 10:57 am

This looks like a strong U.S. jobs report at 321,000 new jobs and wages up 0.40% for November, annualized at 4.80% a year but bond markets are not increasing rates by much only 3 or 4 basis points.

I remember in the late 1990’s and year 2000 when job reports came in at 350,000 or more per month, bond rates, bond yields would spike up 10, 11 sometimes up to 15 basis points at once at already higher bond rates, yields of 5.5% to 6.00%.

It just seems that the bond market is not convinced yet that rates will go up much anytime soon. It may take another 2, 3, 4 maybe even 5 year years to see 3.25% to 4.25% bond rates, bond yields in the U.S. and 3.00% to 3.75% bond rates, bond yields in Canada.

This may not happen at all or if it does be only sustained for a short period of time 6 months to a year at these higher bond rates, bond yields in the future then falling back down by 50 to 75 basis points of around 2.75% to 3.75%.

When I am stating bond rates, bond yields, it is referring to 5, 10 and 30 year maturities.

Bond investors demand a premium for inflation. The US is experiencing non-inflationary growth, and with a rate rise the Fed intends on keeping it that way. — Garth

#107 Rexx Rock on 12.05.14 at 11:09 am

Wheres the truth?When the U.S. releases the job numbers why don’t they say what percentage is full time and part time.Whats the average wage of these new part time and full time jobs.No transparancey

No transparency? You’re kidding, right? Read this. — Garth

#108 Retired Boomer - WI on 12.05.14 at 11:24 am

#104 Yanniel

Garth needs no comment on that piece of news. It is true….at sometime, the stock,market WILL fall by about 50%.

Yes, and then it will recover again. It has fallen as far as 90% over a four year period with recoveries inside of that
masked the pain for a while.

YES!!! Investing in stocks CAN be very hazardous to
your financial health!

YES!!! There is no other easier way to amass wealth than the stock market. All you need is time, and a bit of money!

YES!!! All of these statements are true, and the article like any good broken watch is quite correct twice a day. If you feel the markets are “too risky” for you, buy Real Estate, Bonds, or gamble at your favorite casino. The results will essentially be the same.

This has been a public service abasement.

#109 Aberta is going Bankrupt on 12.05.14 at 11:37 am

People of Alberta you are going to face a WORLD of financial hurt and pain. Many of you will go bankrupt and lose not only your jobs but also homes and worse. The bill is due and you can’t pay back that debt. Canadians(those in debt) is facing a world of financial pain

#110 The American on 12.05.14 at 11:42 am

Tony, how’s that CAD working out for you? What’s the exchange rate? Oh yeah… $1 CAD to $0.875 USD. You sure are great for comedic relief on this blog, and for that, I thank you.

#111 Calgary Boomer on 12.05.14 at 11:51 am

” I guess the tsx is going nowhere now., sell?

Sure thing – buy when assets rise and sell when they fall. Works every time. — Garth”

Garth, does it make sense to sell now, when most of these resource stocks have already fallen, some up to 40%? Isn’t now the time to buy, ie buy low sell high? Even if prices go lower, in the long term, aren’t we good buying the tsx any time now? And buy more if it dips more?

By selling now, you are locking in any losses and I thought you’ve always said that that’s the wrong thing to do (like in 2009 cuz this feels like 2009 for the tsx).

Thanks, and appreciate all of the good info you provide on the blog every day!

I hate it when the “media” says stuff like “the commodity supercycle is over” I heard that long ago and I believe just before those stocks went on another tear. Even though I can understand that oil price will regularly correct and maybe for a long time this time, it’s hard to believe that oil will stay at these levels for years. Everything goes through cycles.

So much for your Sarc Detector. My intention was the opposite of my words. — Garth

#112 Calgary Boomer on 12.05.14 at 12:01 pm

Dammit, I was going to add “or are you being sarcastic” in there but the way you said it I thought maybe things were going to get a lot worse. lol, but thanks

#113 OttawaMike on 12.05.14 at 12:15 pm

321,000 jobs?

Thanks a lot Obummer, if it wasn’t for you and your secret Mooselim agenda.

Oh wait.. never mind.

#114 not 1st on 12.05.14 at 12:18 pm

Yeah people, the TSX is down and energy even more, but that doesn’t matter because we all know ‘assets’ always come back.

Don’t sell no matter what cause that would make it real, cause we all know its really fairy dust.

#115 Alberta Catastrophe Coming Fast on 12.05.14 at 12:18 pm

Its not just the Oilers who are basement dwellers. That team will be a very sad emblem of what the Alberta economy represents in the times ahead.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Matheson+Oilers+silence+deafening+team+flounders/10440222/story.html

Please, Please Albertans! Save yourselves!

Do NOT buy real estate now.

This down cycle will last a long time. Keystone is dead in the water. Times are changing. The supercycle is broken.

Sell now at a reasonable price if you are even remotely thinking of doing so in the next few years.

If you can wait out a fifteen year correction phase then sit tight and hope for the best.

Put your family first, not stupid illusions of real estate going up forever.

Prediction: Alberta real estate overall will be down by 40% within three years.

Oilpatch? Down 70-80 %.

#116 Cato the Elder on 12.05.14 at 12:35 pm

Re: #82 crowded

How gullible are you?

I don’t talk about speculative things. As far as I’m aware, things like chemtrails are not proven with any kind of tangible evidence, just a lot of speculation.

What we DO know for sure is that the NSA as well as other intelligence agencies of which I’m sure CSIS is a part, ARE SPYING ON US.

Why? To stop ‘terrorists’? How many terrorist attacks have there been in OUR ENTIRE HISTORY? 1? Maybe 2?

Why do all dictatorships in all of history have spy networks? They want to infiltrate any opposition. They want to undermine it before it has the power to wrest control away from them.

That is what is happening. Our democracy IS ALREADY COMPROMISED. We are simply in a lull whereby we still have some free speech rights and the government can’t completely wreak havoc on our lives. But ever more rapidly, they are attempting to do so.

All these attempts to regulate bullying, pedophilia, and racism, especially online, are just subtle attempts to undermine free speech. While these things are abhorrent, there’s no need for additional laws. We can handle the VERY FEW CASES that arise with existing ones. There’s no need to regulate the internet.

************

Garth, all the jobs that were ‘added’ are low paying:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-05/where-jobs-were-secretaries-waiters-retail-education-leisure-and-temp-help

That’s given that anyone actually believes the most dishonest administration in American history. There’s now close to 95 MILLION people not in the labor force. I don’t know about you, but I would consider that ‘unemployed’ – the government, however, cleverly does not include them in the official statistics. Funny that would represent close to 25% unemployment, very similar to what shadowstats.com says!

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/12/LFP%20Nov.jpg

#117 Cato the Elder on 12.05.14 at 12:42 pm

Re: #111 American

You know why that is? Because we all have to go down in misery together!

If the US is inflating their currency, making everything more expensive for their citizens, Canada has to do it too!

We can’t make the US look bad. The narrative can’t be challenged. The respective populations of our countries can’t look and say ‘why is Canada’s dollar surging relative to the US? Why can they buy so much more than us? Why are they getting richer and we are getting poorer?’

Same thing in Europe. Switzerland recently voted to keep the peg to the Euro instead of to gold. That means that the Swiss Central Bank can keep hiding the damage they’re doing to the Swiss economy. As prices rise in Switzerland concurrently as in Europe, all the money printing is hidden.

Imagine the outrage that would be spreading throughout Europe if the Swiss franc was surging. Everyone would be questioning WHY. Everyone would be wondering WHY even the poorest people in Switzerland were wealthier than most throughout Europe.

IT’S THE MONEY STUPID.

Poloz the stooge should raise rates. Screw holding America’s hand as it goes down the path of bankruptcy. We need to make the RIGHT decisions.

You think it would hurt exports? Nope. Our domestic population might be able to afford what we’re producing if our dollar was stronger! It would also encourage investment into capital equipment (factories) which means more high paying jobs!

WAKE UP!

#118 Vancouver right? on 12.05.14 at 1:11 pm

Dow is gona crack 18000, buy?
Lol

#119 TurnerNation on 12.05.14 at 1:20 pm

Omg used Uber taxi service as I do between downtown hotspots and the car came up as a Mercedes with the word Realtor in its license place.

Indeed he was. Tsk tsk. How low can they go. 2nd oldest profession in the world.

#120 chapter 9 on 12.05.14 at 1:23 pm

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz
The former head of the FBI J.Edgar Hoover was known for spying on politicians in order to obtain dirt on them that could be later used to leverage them politically. This took place in the 60’s let’s fast forward-NSA!!

#121 Retired Boomer - WI on 12.05.14 at 1:25 pm

#104 Yanniel

I re-read your link. The gist of it is another market “gypsy” has tools to ‘predict’ when the stock market will crash, and when it will prosper -except when it doesn’t.

Yes, and there are bridges for sale. Would you like to buy one?

Chartists will tell you things. Camel toe and double top gamblers will tell you things. There are many soothsayers in the world. Some ideas work better than others, but I have YET to see the one that works all the time.

I am a lazy guy. I have found that picking an age appropriate allocation between stocks &Y bonds, and feeding it regularly during my working lifetime -and not panicking when things break down- has resulted in all the money I will ever need.

No, not all the money in the world, and I am sure I could manage to spend it all, and then some, but why? It IS all I will ever NEED.

As the MAD magazine guy said, “What, me worry?” good advice

#122 Mark on 12.05.14 at 2:15 pm

“Look at the P/E ratios on the American indexes and that’s with bogus accounting. None of us will ever see an overvalued market again like this in our lifetimes.”

Then don’t invest in the US. I personally only have a very minimal allocation. There’s a whole world of options out there, and I think you’ll agree that the valuations are dramatically more reasonable.

#123 batt519 on 12.05.14 at 2:18 pm

TSX and TD aren’t looking too good. Looks like the rally has faded.
Suicide portfolio is holding up relatively well, with gains…

#124 miketheengineer on 12.05.14 at 2:19 pm

Garth et al:

Check this one out…

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/ali-meyer/labor-force-participation-remains-36-year-low-0

So much for the good news…woo hoo!

#125 Cici on 12.05.14 at 2:44 pm

Is there no money left in retail? Seems like many big names are going under. Here’s the latest:

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/fashion-chain-mexx-files-for-bankruptcy-stores-to-remain-open-for-now-1.2134687

#126 pbrasseur on 12.05.14 at 2:45 pm

David W – This greater fool theory also applies to stocks. You buy hoping another sucker will be willing to pay more.

Not necessarily. Stocks are shares of companies which are productive entities unlike houses, and unlike a house the value of a company grows when it performs well. You can expect a stock price to grow (yes it can take time so be patient…) not because of what some fool wants but because the company is doing well and because of that is truly worth more.

Actually this is the difference between investing and speculating. IMHO learning that is a big step towrds a better financial future.

#127 glenn on 12.05.14 at 3:07 pm

Japan had a boom, China had a boom, and both are commodity importers. They also go through real estate cycles.

The housing boom in USA was caused by low interest rates, not commodity exports.

Same with Canada.

The debt cycle is what will drive down housing prices even though interest rates are so low.

The debt cycle is global and building, and the more it builds the smaller increase in interest rates is required to bring the pain.

Everything is more volatile because the world financial structures that were built on capitalism has no capital.

We are now living in debtism.

#128 Mike S on 12.05.14 at 3:18 pm

““Warning: Stocks Will Collapse by 50%”

–> http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNewsIntl/stock-market-crash-warren-buffett-indicator/2014/10/03/id/598461/

Garth, a couple of lines about this, please.”

Great, it will create an opportunity to re balance. Market volatility is there to be harvested. The worst nightmare for any investor would be if the market stays at the current valuation without major swings (either up or down).

#129 Financial Freedom at 40 on 12.05.14 at 3:26 pm

#104 and #109
So we’re confusing ‘advertising’ with ‘news’ now? [marketers cheer]

#130 jess on 12.05.14 at 3:29 pm

carried interest?
AS 2014: Clampdown on disguised fee income by fund managers

The Treasury has indicated plans to top investment fund or private equity (PE) managers from disguising their guaranteed fee income as capital gains in order to avoid income tax, so as to ensure that sums which arise to investment fund managers for their services are charged to income tax.
https://www.accountancylive.com/2014-clampdown-disguised-fee-income-fund-managers
===============

Investigating Student Aid Fraud -straw students
The crime is increasing, and we’re helping our partners root out the worst offenders.
http://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2014/may/investigating-student-aid-fraud/investigating-student-aid-fraud

=======
“Bribery not just the work of rogue staff, OECD corruption report claims
More than half the corporate bribery cases in the last 15 years have involved senior staff, study into corruption finds …
The OECD warned that corruption could be getting more sophisticated, with the time taken to prosecute rising from around two years in 1999 to seven today.” uk herald
http://www.oecd.org/corruption

How the HMRC helped tax avoiders stay ahead of the law – by shifting cash for Switzerland to Liechtenstein

UK: How the HMRC helped tax avoiders stay ahead of the law – by shifting cash for Switzerland to Liechtenstein (4 Dec 2014)
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/how-the-hmrc-helped-tax-avoiders-stay-ahead-of-the-law–by-shifting-cash-for-switzerland-to-liechtenstein-9896964.html

#131 Bytor The Snow Dog on 12.05.14 at 3:30 pm

DELETED

#132 Victor V on 12.05.14 at 3:30 pm

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-canada-sees-oil-shaving-bigger-slice-gdp-174526865–sector.html

On the Bank of Canada’s Dec. 3 statement that household imbalances present “a significant risk to financial stability,” Poloz noted that the bank has been worried about imbalances – household debt is near record high levels – for at least a year.

He said household debt has increased in parallel with what he called “overheating in the housing market”.

“In our previous statement in October we said that in fact it looked like those imbalances were edging higher, whereas before that it looked like they had stabilized.

“So just by saying ‘significant’ this week, we’re saying well it hasn’t really changed lately but it’s still significant.”

Poloz said that it is difficult to say whether household imbalances are now a bigger consideration in setting rate policy than they have been in the past.

“The way I think about it, the household imbalances will gradually ease, but not by themselves. They will ease because the economy gets stronger, more people get jobs and therefore the income metrics go up faster than the debt metrics.”

Since the economic outlook does appear a little more encouraging, he said, that leads to a forecast that these problems will take care of themselves over time.

“But in terms of vulnerability to an external shock we are just as vulnerable as we were before,” he added.

#133 Mike S on 12.05.14 at 3:42 pm

“Bond investors demand a premium for inflation. The US is experiencing non-inflationary growth, and with a rate rise the Fed intends on keeping it that way. — Garth”

I don’t think there is such a thing like non-inflationary growth. If the job market is going to return to full employment (Is it going to happen around 5% employment rate?) the inflation is going to get higher

The real issue with the rates right now is what is done in other major economies. Like negative rates in Europe.

Some downside for rates is still possible if the markets were to have a nice 10%+ correction, in the near future

Even today holding long term bonds, makes only a little sense to these who expect a major deflation (and they are few).

It is interesting to see how the “wealth management” segment of the canadian banks is going to fare in the next few years, as even today for many conservative mutual funds MER > 5 yr canada bond yield

There will be no central bank rate cut in NA. — Garth

#134 waiting on the westcoast on 12.05.14 at 3:47 pm

From the Globe&Mail – see link below…

“The Canadian dollar is “cheap” this year, having been driven down by the slump in oil prices and a neutral central bank.

But Mr. Chaigneau believes the loonie will track its U.S. counterpart higher next year, outperforming other currencies like the euro, the yen, the Swiss franc, the Swedish krona and Norway’s Krone.

Behind that is the idea is that the Federal Reserve moves soonish to hike its benchmark rate from its emergency low, and that the Bank of Canada follows soon after, though not too soon.”

So basically – the US raises rates / Canada will follow so as not to let its currency slide and we will have higher rates… then housing will start sliding.

Here is the link…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/buy-the-loonie-not-against-the-us-dollar-just-the-others-socgen/article21970822/

#135 Bytor The Snow Dog on 12.05.14 at 3:55 pm

Was it something I said?

What do you think? — Garth

#136 Mark on 12.05.14 at 4:01 pm

“There will be no central bank rate cut in NA”

You really think the BoC is going to stand back and let a deflationary meltdown destroy the Canadian economy? Because that’s whats ahead of us, unless some sort of demand driver appears very quickly out of nowhere.

At this point, the BoC is likely behind the curve in lowering interest rates and beginning a program of QE. 1% is way too high given the state of the economy. Poloz’s recent comments, that he believes that income growth will take care of debt, simply show how out to lunch he is.

#137 None on 12.05.14 at 4:03 pm

#71 Cato the Elder on 12.04.14 at 11:09 pm

Everyone knows that a few fires contained within offices is enough to bring down an entire building.

============

Good lord, now you’re a civil engineer? Everyone knows? I think the key is heat.

#138 Bytor The Snow Dog on 12.05.14 at 4:03 pm

Alas, another jest fallen flat!

#139 None on 12.05.14 at 4:05 pm

#71 Cato the Elder on 12.04.14 at 11:09 pm
And people are complete and utter IDIOTS if they think how one conducts themselves in their personal life ought to disqualify them from public office.

===================

You’re kidding right? Too much of a blanket statement. You’re right I don’t care who people sleep with, etc but I do care if you kick cats, hit your wife, etc. That’s a bellwether of your morality.

#140 None on 12.05.14 at 4:07 pm

#72 Cato the Elder on 12.04.14 at 11:16 pm
The hypocrisy is lost on them, for if it were even pointed out, they probably don’t have the intellect to understand it.

================

You know for a guy (or gal) who gets bent out of shape when people insult them here, you certainly like to dismiss those that don’t see things your way as idiots or just not as smart as you. If you have to use capitals to make your point, it’s probably not much of a point to make.

#141 jess on 12.05.14 at 4:10 pm

recovering from 12.8trillion?

Cost of the Crisis

The costs of the financial crisis have been incomprehensibly large, touching every part of the United States and the globe. However, Wall Street and its allies, many politicians, some business groups and academics have denied, denigrated or tried to minimize the actual costs. One of the favorite ways of doing that is by focusing on a single issue and pretending it encompasses all the costs, like saying TARP made money. Here, we track, catalogue and discuss the comprehensive costs of the crisis, from lost jobs, homes and retirement savings to the massive costs of bailing out the banks and the deficits caused by all of that. Financial reform is all about preventing this from happening again.

Read Better Markets Report entitled “The Cost Of The Wall Street-Caused Financial Collapse and Ongoing Economic Crisis is More Than $12.8 Trillion
======================
job trend look bright but what about the
millions of Americans who will never regain their earnings, educations,skills, and trainings that they lost during and as a result of the crises?

http://bettermarkets.com/sites/default/files/Cost%20Of%20The%20Crisis_2.pdf

#142 Mark on 12.05.14 at 4:18 pm

“So basically – the US raises rates / Canada will follow so as not to let its currency slide and we will have higher rates… then housing will start sliding.”

Higher rates cause currency depreciation. Not low rates. Low rates are far better for a currency than high rates, as the only reason why a central bank would pay high rates, is in response to an inflation problem. There’s far more consumer debt deflation in Canada’s future, than in the US where they’re already 6-8 years into the liquidation phase and appear to be emerging from such back into credit expansion. Canada’s legacy of trade surpluses, significant domestic investment in export industries, and the deflationary abyss of housing will allow it to run interest rate policy dramatically less than that of the USA for the next 20-30 years. Unlike the past 30 years, an equity risk premium will be realized, and probably an abnormally high one at that.

Currency speculators, the current reason for the dropping Canadian dollar, tend to be, more often than not, the ‘dumb money’. They obviously don’t understand what domestic debt deflation does to a currency (ie: they didn’t study Japan!). It will be fun seeing them get cleaned out once the trend exhausts itself, and the Canadian dollar resumes its march towards, and even exceeding that of fair value which is at least over parity. The extremity in the CAD$ could be just as high in the upwards direction, as it was in the downwards direction — ie: $1.5-$1.6 USD$ / $CAD. Or a 63 cent USD$.

#143 Mike S on 12.05.14 at 4:21 pm

Garth,
would you be able to comment on this?

“http://www.bnn.ca/News/2014/12/4/No-more-
growth-at-Canadian-banks-time-to-cut-staff-Doak.aspx”

Also, why do we have so many self employed recently?
If the CRA trying to audit your TFSA account, are you immediately counted as self employed? Would H consider becoming self employed next year?

#144 Mike S on 12.05.14 at 4:38 pm

“There will be no central bank rate cut in NA. — Garth”

You must confuse me with Mark, I never said the US or Canada are going to cut rates. Though I really have no clue what’s going on in the rest of NA countries …

#145 SWL1976 on 12.05.14 at 5:15 pm

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz

Chemtrails

——————————————–

Just look up they are there are very real, come on you live on the same coast I do. I find it hard to believe you have never seen the signs?

Maybe the gas in the elevator is effecting your better judgment

http://www.globalresearch.ca/military-weather-modification-chemtrails-atmospheric-geoengineering-and-environmental-warfare/5356630

Just look up folks. Very very real

#146 Cato the Elder on 12.05.14 at 5:28 pm

Re: #138 None

WTC 7 was hit by no airplanes. There were sporadic fires located in various offices. Nothing affecting the structure.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zv7BImVvEyk

The extent of the ‘damage’ that brought down an entire structure:

http://www.willfox.com/images/skyscrapers/WTC7_damage.jpg

Larry Silverstein admitting they demolished WTC7:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-jPzAakHPpk

*********

Re: #140 None

I’m a very moral person. So much so that I’m regularly repulsed with the capacity of most people to justify away hypocritical points of view or dismiss the pursuit of truth out of convenience.

See, I understand the ‘divide and conquer’ mentality of the elites who rule over you. They WANT you to equate a politician’s personal life with their public conduct, despite the fact that they have nothing to do with each other.

As an example, when JFK went to fire Hoover, he was blackmailed. Blackmailed with evidence of his extramarital affairs. See, in spite of the horrendous crimes of Hoover, he knew the American public would ignore him, and be enraged by Kennedy. Even though Kennedy’s affair only affected him and his family, and Hoover’s crimes affected an entire nation of millions. The FBI and other national security organizations have only continued to grow empowered since then, and have completely undermined nearly all US civil liberties.

How is that a good idea? Now, on a personal level, I may not agree with the personal lives of many politicians. But I possess enough critical thinking skills to know that their personal lives are irrelevant in how it affects me. What affects me is what laws they are passing, what taxes they are trying to extract, what liberties of mine they are trying to curtail.

And yet, most people are so simple minded that they can’t recognize this very obvious facet of public governance.

Now, onto your example of kicking a dog. While that may be abhorrent, AGAIN, how does that AFFECT us? It does not. Now if they pass a law that says police can FORCE us to kick dogs, it affects us. See the difference?

I don’t like politicians passing laws that use FORCE to compel us to comply – and that’s what many of them do.

I think politicians should be responsible with very little, and have very little power vested in them. They shouldn’t be busy bodies trying to take care of us. They should get involved ONLY in conflict resolution. Let us decide how we want to conduct our lives.

#147 mid20millenial on 12.05.14 at 5:30 pm

#25 Bob Dole

Here’s the order I prioritize my contributions:

1. Max company contribution room
2. Max TFSA
3. RRSP
4. Non-registered

Who cares if the fees are a bit high – you’re still getting 100% return. Don’t turn down free money.

#148 Vancouver right? on 12.05.14 at 5:33 pm

http://m.barrons.com/articles/janus-bill-gross-tells-investors-to-take-chips-off-the-table-1417711282

Good article by bill gross about the current market environment. He is no Garth turner but I think he’s a pretty smart guy

Oh, you mean the guy who lost his investors $4.68 billion last year? Right. No Garth Turner. — Garth

#149 Kris on 12.05.14 at 5:55 pm

#120 TurnerNation on 12.05.14 at 1:20 pm
Omg used Uber taxi service as I do between downtown hotspots and the car came up as a Mercedes with the word Realtor in its license place.

Indeed he was. Tsk tsk. How low can they go. 2nd oldest profession in the world.

******************************************

Might be a decent marketing plot.
I mean, when you’re starting as a new realtor its tough out there.

#150 saskatoon on 12.05.14 at 6:00 pm

#147 Cato the Elder

“I’m a very moral person.”

dude, maybe i am misinterpreting here: but how can you say this when just a few days ago you pontificated about joining the corrupt elite (if they would have you), because the rabble are so stupid and irritating?

#151 Setting the Record Straight on 12.05.14 at 6:03 pm

@58 Specticle from previous day

Buy some type of whokelife for your newborn

#152 80'sKid6$4 on 12.05.14 at 6:04 pm

#31 Smoking Man

#22 80’sKid6$4 on 12.04.14 at 8:08 pm
#7 Smoking Man

Can you please describe specifically how the Canadian education system teaches us to become zombies?
When I was in school, “regurgitation” was considered plagiarism and strongly discouraged. Newspapers and the internet were also not allowed as reference sources.
And the “cool” kids definitely weren’t buddies with the principal.
………

If you don’t know than its already to late for you..

http://jonrappoport.wordpress.com/2014/12/03/education-programming-101-destroy-logic/

http://jonrappoport.wordpress.com/2014/12/02/independent-education-the-crisis-and-the-crossroad
_______________________

Thanks for the reference to these nonsensical ramblings as a basis for your argument. I hope this philosophizing conspiracy theorist isn’t your trusted authority on the effectiveness of the contemporary education system. Your proposed link between real estate sales and a brain washing, minion creating, follower factory is thin at best.

#153 jess on 12.05.14 at 6:18 pm

wage violators

In a speech prepared for delivery on Thursday, Tom Perez, the labor secretary, pledges stepped-up enforcement against such violations. “The law is only as effective as the political will of those enforcing,” says the text, which is to be given at a conference on wage enforcement at the Center for American Progress in Washington.
The study said these pay violations ended up costing taxpayers. As a rest of the violations, school breakfast and lunch programs spent an additional $15.6 million in California and $7.8 million in New York in fiscal 2011, the report said. And annual spending on food stamps rose nearly $11 million in California and $33.6 million in New York because of the violations.

The number of investigators in the Wage and Hour Division has increased to 1,040 from 731 in 2008, the Labor Department said. Since 2009 the department has recovered $1 billion in back wages for workers who suffered minimum-wage and other violations.
http://www.dol.gov/_sec/media/speeches/20141204_Perez.htm
————
Wage and Hour Division (WHD)
http://www.dol.gov/whd/statistics/

itty bitty bits of dx
http://www.fissuredworkplace.net/
http://www.fissuredworkplace.net/The-Fissured-Workplace-News.php
http://www.c-span.org/video/?323074-1/labor-secretary-tom-perez-address-wage-law-enforcement

#154 saskatoon on 12.05.14 at 6:18 pm

#105 miketheengineer

softkill…eugenics population control protocol.

sad.

#155 Kenchie on 12.05.14 at 6:21 pm

“China’s latest banking overheal is hugely risky and totally necessary”

http://qz.com/304931/chinas-latest-banking-overhaul-is-hugely-risky-and-totally-necessary/

#156 Smoking Man on 12.05.14 at 6:28 pm

#153 80’sKid6$4 on 12.05.14 at 6:04 pm

That took a while….. So what do you teach?

Obviously you worked hard for your obedience certificate and I don’t blame you in the leased defending all those hours of home work. The exorbitant text book costs, insipe of the fact knowledge is free on the Web.

Oh and let’s not forget crazy cost of school.

The reason you can’t see it’s a monumentally scams because they programed you.

And yes I’m a conspiracy theorist.. I beilive every thing we hear and see, everyone that talks to us or attempts to communicate is selling something. I trust no one but this little crazy voice in my head…

There is some ammunition for a scathing rebuttal teacher.

Teachers I tell ya……

#157 Cici on 12.05.14 at 7:06 pm

Oh I love that dog!

#158 80'sKid6$4 on 12.05.14 at 7:08 pm

#157 Smoking Man
No I’m not in education, I’m in the health sector.
I agree University is expensive and most definitely has turned into a business venture lately. But by your logic I can research brain surgery on my own and be completely qualified to perform it because I saw a video on you tube.

Didn’t I read a post about paying to send your son to University?
Maybe you were being sarcastic or something.

#159 Smoking Man on 12.05.14 at 7:15 pm

So I’m hanging out at the Sheraton by city Hall, registration starts soon. Where do I find myself, at the bar of course.

I step out for a smoke, under the overhang with all the no smoking signs..

An old hag, somewhere between 70 or 80 taps me on the shoulder. Points to the sign..

Lucky for her and me I’m only two Jack’s deep.. One more and I would have embrassedd granny, planted a smoke filled kiss right on her lips…

Then, Spend the rest of my life saying, what the hell did I do, probably turned to drinking full time again.

#160 Smoking Man on 12.05.14 at 7:20 pm

#159 80’sKid6$4 on 12.05.14 at 7:08 pm
#157 Smoking Man
No I’m not in education, I’m in the health sector.
I agree University is expensive and most definitely has turned into a business venture lately. But by your logic I can research brain surgery on my own and be completely qualified to perform it because I saw a video on you tube.

Didn’t I read a post about paying to send your son to University?
Maybe you were being sarcastic or something.
…..

He went to trios collage, get a certificate in addiction counselling… He should know.. He’s been there done that… Two months as in intern, then a 50 dollar an hour gig awaits. Then after two years Experiance, daddy funds the cash for our own, rehab centre…

Smoking Man’s addiction relef centre…

If a brain surgeon, showed me, just as he shows his interens how to do brain surgery,, not only would I get good at it,, but be the best in a few years..

#161 Zeeman1 on 12.05.14 at 7:57 pm

Garth, once again the majority of these new jobs are part time minimum wage jobs. Why does no one want to report this?

#162 80'sKid6$4 on 12.05.14 at 8:30 pm

#161 Smoking Man
Ok Smoking Man, your dentist, accountant, doctor, engineers are all over educated fools incapable of independent thought. But you sir (and your son) have the world by the balls. Kudos!

#163 The American on 12.06.14 at 2:16 am

At #118: Cato the Stupid, then please explain currency valuation just 18 months ago. You make no sense. Typical. Have your cake… eat it too. You can only see the side you choose. Small minded, you are. Perhaps you should wake up and understand the CAD is falling because your economy is a farce, based solely on real estate and commodities. Last time the globe checked, neither are doing too well. Canadians are the only ones who haven’t quite gotten the memo. I truly mean that. Perhaps its time YOU wake up and realize things aren’t so rosey at all on your side of the fence. In fact, it’s getting pretty shaky and dire.

#164 takla on 12.06.14 at 8:15 pm

https://www.google.ca/?gws_rd=ssl#
Spinning some vinyl with the day off…john fogerty “mr. Greed”..Fitting song for the greedy{bankers}
enjoy

#165 None on 12.08.14 at 2:18 pm

#147 Cato the Elder on 12.05.14 at 5:28 pm

Now, onto your example of kicking a dog. While that may be abhorrent, AGAIN, how does that AFFECT us? It does not. Now if they pass a law that says police can FORCE us to kick dogs, it affects us. See the difference?

=================

not sure if my comment posted.

I see what you are saying in that so long as a politician does not make us do something they like to do in their private life you don’t care. I’d prefer they just did not do those things period because then it removes the chance of them deciding to force people to do something by law that they themselves like to do in their private lives. Sort of the mentality of: “Hey I like this, people should also do this.”

See the difference?