In a moment we’ll get to Peter and Christa’s reproductive issues. First, a brief folo on yesterday’s collapse in the price of oil and the moaning and gnashing that ensued.
Friday was worse. Crude tumbled an astonishing 10.3% in a single trading session. That means a loss of more than seven bucks, taking a barrel down to the $66 mark. So, a big drop in gas prices next week. It also means oil has given up 38% since the summer, which is a total capitulation in anyone’s books.
Meanwhile our petrodollar was creamed, off eight-tenths of a cent, now down to 87 and a half US pennies. Plunging energy issues (Canadian Oil Sands stocks has bled out 40% since June) had the TSX down again – this time by about 180 points.
The consequences? A big tailwind for consumers, especially in the US where each cent reduction in a gallon’s price adds over $1 billion to incomes – just in time for Christmas. In Canada the effect is welcome, but more muted, given the fat tax component built into each litre of go-juice. In fact, as I mentioned yesterday, the collapse in crude will on balance be negative for the nation, since oil shipments form a huge part of the export income upon which we rely. This also puts oil sands investment plans on potential hold, and is the worst possible news for drillers, engineers and real estate in Alberta, Saskatchewan and northern BC.
The consequences are unknown, since it’s unclear how long prices stay depressed, or how much further down they might travel. As I mentioned last night, the OPEC guys can pump a barrel for thirty bucks, while some US frackers need $80 to break even, and oil sands producers are having a cow at current levels. It’s safe to say, however, that between Canada Day and now, everything has changed. It may take months for this to percolate through the housing market, but when it does the impact could be life-altering for those fools who thought it was different this time.
Of course, it never is.
But try telling that to Pete and his bride.
“Please don’t make fun of us too hard or tell us we’re too poor to have kids ??,” he says in his desperate email to me. “But, if we are too poor to have kids you got to tell us man ??.”
You bet. Here goes.
“My wife and I need your help: I have a combined $36,000 in two RRSP’s (one for retirement/paternity leave/house, one for education), my wife has $27,000 in her RRSP; we also have roughly $3,000 in shared equities (stocks) that we prefer not to sell.
I have no credit card debt, she has $18,000 on visa (10.99% interest) and we share $20,000 (prime+3.5%) on a credit line. We rent at a reasonable $1500 with a dog in Vancouver. We’re both 35 and are thinking about starting a family, part of which is fertility treatments approximated at $12,000 to freeze embryos.
We are both semi-professionals with a combined income of approx. $110k on a normal year, but only about 60k this year. My wife has been on disability for calendar year 2014, and therefore, has almost 0 taxable income. Should my wife withdraw her RRSP to pay off the Visa? Can she withdraw from RRSP without paying taxes since she hasn’t worked this year?
In your opinion would it be better to take the money from RRSPs or just borrow more on the credit line for fertility. We are expecting to get $15,000 – $25,000 in 2015 from a settlement and could replace the withdrawal from the RRSP with these funds. If we withdraw the RRSP, are we better off paying back the RRSP or putting settlement in a TFSA or some other investment vehicle.
We are unable to wait for the settlement to start fertility treatments. Should we keep drowning in our current debts and add to it, or pay off things and possibly drown in debt during retirement (due to lack of RRSP’s)?”
Well, where to begin? First, you have assets of $66,000, almost all of it in taxable RRSPs. The debts stand at $38,000, and are costing you a bundle in interest. You are devoid of other assets, and live in a stupidly expensive city. Now you want to borrow another twelve grand, or draw it from your registered funds, for fertility treatments, which may or may not work. And your wife has no income.
So, your net worth is a little north of zero. Yes, the money coming next year will help, but if she does get pregnant, this is only the start of more expenses to come, plus a maternity leave even if she gets back to work. Are you sure you want to do this?
As for your questions: You can’t ‘replace’ RRSP funds as you can with money taken from a TFSA. Contribution room has to be earned with new employment income, or borrowed from unused contributions in the past. No, you can’t take money from an RRSP without withholding tax, although your wife could get much of this back next spring after filing her 2014 return. Pay down the 11.99% Visa? Of course. Why haven’t you done it already, since you have a 6.5% (still hideously expensive) line of credit? If the RRSP money is sitting in some dead-end GIC or bank account, then it might make sense to use those funds to trash the card (then cut it up),
But, of course, there’s no good outcome. If the fertility stuff must proceed then sell the stocks, since they pose the greatest financial risk at a time when you can’t afford to take much. Put the rest on the line, then pay this off with the funds coming next year. Invest the money you have properly, as I have instructed. And obviously there’s much you’re not telling us. Like why your spouse is too disabled to work, but not to have a baby. And why it has to happen now.
Petey, life’s about choices. This one will probably change everything. Just pray you end up with a child rock star.
212 comments ↓
First!
Yeah baby.
The gas is down big today, wouldn’t this translate to more money being spent on paying down mortgage balances for a lot of Canadians?
This may not help in the short term but offers some hope. Tar Sands oil for $30 a barrel: http://oilprice.com/Finance/investing-and-trading-reports/Breakthrough-Technology-in-Utah-to-Make-Oil-Sands-Clean.html
Take that OPEC.
As for Peter & Christa, 7 billion people on the planet aren’t enough? Just because we CAN procreate doesn’t mean we HAVE to. Think about your motives before taking on the challenge and financial burden.
That’s a tough one. Income insecurity amongst the young seems to have cratered birth-rates. I know, amongst my circle of friends, it seems, the higher the income or potential income, the reduced likelihood of procreating.
The country needs engineers, doctors, and lawyers having babies. Not the welfare crowd. But it seems the system of high house prices and poor job opportunities has been so rigged against what ordinarily would be the upper middle class. Engineers, for instance, in the past, could usually look forward to rock-solid job security, and high levels of labour mobility. Today, they’re amongst the first to be laid off in an economic downturn by the outsourced contractors they work for, rather than retained in reserve, perhaps in other roles, until there’s an inevitable upturn. Add in student debt, and the situation of 35-year-olds having practically no savings, no home ownership, and very unstable job prospects is one that is very commonly replicated.
Maybe start a Crowdfunder appeal? For Pete, not for Alberta.
I’ll probably be abused for saying this but ladies, this is what you get when you wait until 35 to have a kid. I don’t know this particular woman’s story, but for those ladies who want to have children but put it off until late in reproductive life so that they can party and ride the carousel or advance careers, you’re rolling the dice when it comes to babies. This happened to my cousin and she was devastated. She’s now in her mid 40s and will never have children.
Great picture, and very truthful: kids do stupid stuff, such as get their faces pierced and torso covered in ugly tats.
I don’t understand why people would spend money trying to have a kid. My view is if you’re sterile, you’ve dodged a huge bullet. One which will live in the basement until it’s 35, playing video games and racking up credit card debt.
Do exactly what Garth says.
Your future is riding on the decisions you will make now. Think carefully.
Holy Hannah – this young couple is a financial disaster in the making. Though I can tell you why the baby ‘has’ to happen now. If the lady is 35, she is at her best before date for prime baby time. Though if fertility treatments are required….. I know the biological clock can scream pretty loudly, but unless both parties are 100% sure they want children they might want to reconsider sticking to their own genes. After 35 the birth defect issue becomes much more likely…..
I’m just presuming the horrifying $18,000 on the credit card is due to the lady being off work & using the card for necessities. If not, ouch. I’d maybe see a credit counselor sooner rather than later & get that issue under control before taking on yet more debt. And if the much desired child does appear, debt will occur regardless as raising a child is not inexpensive. Last time I saw a number put to it, the cost to age 18 & not including post secondary college/university was around $250,000…..
For anyone that thinks USA doomed.. Wrong.
Spent 1 hour trying to find a parking spot at Las Vegas outlet mall. Gave up.
Drove back to Ceasars and took a cap…
This joint is on fire…
Oh and did find Alien base camp…
Pic on my blog… To frightened to get any closer..
Amazing. Similar to when a bank rep once explained I should pay off my highest interest debt first and then deal with paying down my mortgage. Duh.
Fertility treatments? Please consider adoption (which may or may not be more expensive… no idea).
Good luck.
#4 Mark
“The country needs engineers, doctors, and lawyers having babies.”
———————————-
Are you suggesting engineers, doctors and lawyers etc. are more likely to raise model citizens?
Fat chance! My long association with several highly disfuntional families headed by such professionals tells me otherwise.
[then it might make sense to use those funds to trash the card (then cut it up)]!!!
Well said. To be honest, I never understood why people think that credit cards should be used as a source of income. I do have 3 credit cards and use only one all the time because I get 2% cash back for everything that I buy.. I never carry the balance on a credit card – I spend only the amount that I can pay back at the end of each month and get my 2% cash back. Period!!
I also use credit cards for long term debts when the rate is 0% and you can have many cards in the US at 0% rate for 12-18months. I used one of those cards to pay my student loan when I moved from Ottawa to California back in 1999. Instead of paying the interest of almost 10% to the National Bank of Canada for the load I used a 0% rate credit card to pay it off and then paid the card balance within 12 months without interest. Also, at that time the exchange rate was almost at 1.4CAD/USD meaning that my loan in CAD was significantly reduced in USD.
The consequences? A big tailwind for consumers, especially in the US where each cent reduction in a gallon’s price adds over $1 billion to incomes – just in time for Christmas
Why is Oil price going down (deflation) is good for the economy but other price going down (deflation) is not good for the economy?
Should Price of other thing going down has same effect of oil going down?
Cell phone 30 year ago were 5000 and now they are 500? should this have put all phone companies out of buisiness if deflation is so bad? Would apple be what it is if an Iphone was 10000$
It seems like when the price of things go down, people want to buy more. If this is true for oil then this should be true for everything else.
Look at people going crazy for for black friday… Price down…Demand up…
Move to Quebec. They have free IVF but go quickly as it sounds like that’s going to change soon. Apparently right now it’s “an open bar”.
How about we stop judging this couple? While they may not be in an ideal situation to be having kids, doesn’t mean it’s not possible. The guy is writing in asking for help and the comments are just making fun of their situation.
We have no idea what kind of sacrifices they are willing to make to get on track. Pay down the debt, keep working/investing and I’m sure you are going to be great parents..
There is no V correction for oil
It’s down an dirty for a long time
The one thing all of these stories have in common is that the people already know what they should do and what they are going to do they are just looking for someone to validate it. Like when you have a convesation with someone and the put forth some notion and then say don’t you think or you don’t think so if you hedge a response instead of just saying are you on glue?
As far as not giving all of the details, of course not. If you have all of the details you are less likely to validate the notion. Expecting a settlement huh? So if the disability disappears so does the settlement? Maybe I’m just to cynical.
O well, CHMC 900 Billion and the markets need to be free that will fix everything. There I took care of it for both of you in one sentence. You know who you are and so does everyone else. Oh and you’re both wrong and yes it’s you’re not your.
Peter…..if you think your dog is a bit of work and mildly expensive.
Wait til you have kids. :)
If her income is near nil, even though the bank on withdrawal of the RRSP would remit 10% wouldn’t a lot of that remitted amount be returned after filing taxes?
Another question I have generally is what is the relative process and costs of adopting a child? There’s an obvious personal choice element but at least as a point of comparison it might be useful to consider (personally I have no experience or info).
Excellent movie = Idiocracy.
As the 21st century began, human evolution was at a turning point. Natural selection, the process by which the strongest, the smartest, the fastest, reproduced in greater numbers than the rest, a process which had once favored the noblest traits of man, now began to favor different traits. Most science fiction of the day predicted a future that was more civilized and more intelligent. But as time went on, things seemed to be heading in the opposite direction. A dumbing down. How did this happen? Evolution does not necessarily reward intelligence. With no natural predators to thin the herd, it began to simply reward those who reproduced the most, and left the intelligent to become an endangered species.
The years passed, mankind became stupider at a frightening rate. Some had high hopes the genetic engineering would correct this trend in evolution, but sadly the greatest minds and resources where focused on conquering hair loss and prolonging erections.
Only 20 live births have ever come from frozen eggs in the UK. For a 38 year old woman (in the US), the chance of ONE frozen egg leading to a live birth is only 2% to 12%.
The couple may want to have a serious conversation about what they want to do, if they can’t have kids naturally or via fertility drugs, frozen eggs or IVF before they bankrupt themselves.
http://fortune.com/2014/10/22/tough-truth-about-egg-freezing/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-life/11169420/Facebook-egg-freezing-The-facts-dont-lie-We-havent-cracked-egg-freezing.-Not-even-close.html
They need to deal with that debt. I’d recommend a debt counsellor & tax advice, then get the debt paid off, then commence with the fertility treatments. If the settlement money is compensation for the wife’s disability, then that money should all go to paying off her credit card.
If there is money left over then that should go towards the line of credit, but because they have their hearts set on the fertility treatment the extra should go towards that as time is of the essence.
They can keep themselves busy with the baby making activities in the meanwhile; if karma is kind they may not need the fertility treatments.
Do NOT liquidate the RRSPS:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/how-to-protect-your-retirement-funds-from-creditor-claims/article549663/
If their finances get very dicey and they wind up in bankruptcy their RRSPs could be sheltered from creditor claims. But the above link is 2 years old, and the rules may have changed, which is why the debt counsellor & good tax advice are a must.
Everybody knows that OPEC isn’t keeping the price low forever. Just long enough to do some minor damage to alternative energy and high cost producers.
Oil is a finite resource. Why would Saudi Arabia purposely lower the price long term? They will slash production next spring and we’ll be back to $90 barrel
Pure buying opportunity for oil stocks. This isn’t gold; we actually use and need oil
Good to wait few more months in Alberta now with 400k in the bank… and jobs unrelated to oil or AB economy in general…
Engineers, for instance, in the past, could usually look forward to rock-solid job security
———————-
They still do, so long as they work for government.
We never really lay off government workers, we SHUFFLE them around to other jobs they are not qualified for, give them early RETIREMENT or downsize by ATTRITION.
Mind numbing, soul sucking work being a swivel servant (I know), but if you can hack it the benefits and iron clad security are great.
Don’t take this personally Pete, but you and the wife would be silly to forego fertility treatments that you cannot afford at this time. I wondering if it would even be safe for your wife to get pregnant at this point (was she in an accident? The body needs time to heal properly, and pregnancy is VERY demanding on even a healthy body).
Ever consider adoption if you want to be parents?
But first things first: you both need to get rid of the high-interest debt and then start attacking the low-interest debt before you even think about having a baby, because if that baby ends up with special needs, you are going to have a hell of a time providing for it adequately. Having a baby isn’t just about you and what you want, it’s about the baby as well.
I do hope everything works out for you two, but I seriously think you need sit down and get your finances in order before you think about having a child. Having no debt is part of being a responible provider, and with those debt levels, it’s obvious that you, and your wife especially, have not yet learned to live within your means.
It IS possible: draw up a debt repayment plan (try for one year or two, and max three) to get rid of all that debt. I don’t recommend draining any of the cash in your RRSPs or even stocks…the pain of having to draw up a budget, assess where you are blowing too much money, and save at the same time that you sock away debt is a great lesson learned that will help you and your wife become amazingly better parents. Also, if you pay that debt down in the next two to three years using income alone, you will have $66,000 in savings plus another $15,000 to $25,000 in settlement money (which you would be wise to invest as per Garth’s instructions).
And forget the fertility treatments: even if they work, there’s no guarantee the pregnancy will succeed to term, and even if it does, you will have to take paternity leave to raise it, draining all of your savings and leaving you with severely limited cash flow that may not even cover your monthly expenses and interest charges.
Start here:
http://www.mrsjanuary.com/personal-finance/improve-finances/
http://www.gailvazoxlade.com/resources/own_up_to_debt_worksheet.html
http://gailvazoxlade.com/blog/?p=604
Good luck and don’t worry, you will get there ;-)
why is there gona be fire and brimstone in the patch ? oil was at 65 just 4 short years ago…during the crash of 08/09 the albertans were chasing their crown&cokes with dom….its all goooooood
Also, hubby needs to shut up about half of his RRSPs being for education. With her ability to save for her retirement now reduced to zero, a decent lawyer should be able to perform a decent tapdance on how it has become a priority for their existing RRSPs to be protected. ‘Judge, their RRSPs may be the only funds my clients will have to live off of in their retirement years!’
This tapdance may need to be performed for the bankruptcy hearing, and if those paying out the settlement try to have the settlement amount reduced on the tapdance of ‘they’ve frivolously spent the monies on fertitility treatments that aren’t needed’ so my clients should get X dollars back.
If the settlement is immediately applied to debt incurred as a result of the disability, and then to debt that existed before the disability, my argument to the judge would be that my clients had a reasonable expectation of paying that debt off and the disability has that ability away. Dunno if that would work in court tho’.
223 TnT on 11.28.14 at 6:34 pm
I don’t know very much about Ike––he was supreme commander of allied expeditionary forces in Europe and his presidency was apparently nothing very remarkable. Certainly a very accomplished individual.
What I will say is that it’s one thing for a president to warn his nation and his successor about the “military industrial complex” as he is just about to leave office. It’s quite another thing to take them on during his presidency, like JFK did repeatedly (Bay of Pigs, Berlin Crisis, Cuban Missile Crisis).
If you want to read/hear some truly presidential speeches, check out JFK’s inaugural address, his speech at American University, his magnanimous ‘mea culpa’ after the Pay of Pigs, and his “secrecy is repugnant” speech, among others.
A video of the “Murican” recovery. While it shows people spending money…..not sure if I would be proud to call it recovery material.
http://www.infowars.com/black-friday-1983-vs-now-people-vs-animals/
We are so superior. I mean, why else would you post that? — Garth
“Are you suggesting engineers, doctors and lawyers etc. are more likely to raise model citizens?”
Perhaps not (nastiest, most entitled kid I ever met was the son of a doctor). But intelligence does tend to run in families.
#6 Mocha: “This happened to my cousin and she was devastated. She’s now in her mid 40s and will never have children.”
***************************
Has she considered adoption?
#26 omg the original on 11.28.14 at 8:12 pm
=========================
Wrong blog, buddy.
Try the SlumSnoozeNutwork. Heard there might be an opening there soon.
DELETED
#28 vancouver right? on 11.28.14 at 8:17 pm
why is there gona be fire and brimstone in the patch ? oil was at 65 just 4 short years ago…during the crash of 08/09 the albertans were chasing their crown&cokes with dom….its all goooooood
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Easy. Trillions of out of thin air money with interest (out of thin air interest owed) kept everything going. Now the party is over so we will see sustained lower oil prices.
And also people seem to forget that fuel mileage is going through the roof right now. Couple that with electric cars and new/improved transit, less and less transportation will need oil. Brazil for example is 50% alcohol from sugar cane.
‘In your opinion would it be better to take the money from RRSPs or just borrow more on the credit line for fertility?’
Almost couldn’t read past this point. Borrow on a credit card for fertility. Good grief.
Advise to couple: go all in and short oil.
#7 Mr. Nihilist: “…kids do stupid stuff, such as get their faces pierced and torso covered in ugly tats.”
*****************
Yup! And they spend BC government loans for educational purposes…on vacations. Because the government gives them cash up front. Duh! These are irresponsible 18-year-olds.
The incident I’m referring to happened in the 80’s. Doubt anything has changed if the pic is any indication.
#6:
No, you won’t be abused but you will be corrected. There is plenty of evidence now that points to older fathers being the reason for increased autism, bipolar ism and schizophrenia among children/youth. But of course- let’s just focus on the women. I read a few years ago that more Canadian women were getting pregnant after 40 unintentionally, then teenagers were. Teenage birth rates are very low now thanks to education around birth control while ‘older’ women tend to let down their guard thinking they aren’t likely together pregnant after a certain age.
Sorry about your cousin, but in all honesty I can’t understand why anyone after a certain age-male or female- would want to start from scratch with babies. It’s a wee bit selfish when you think about it.
But then, I tend to think like #3 Whinepegger… :)
Sad…Zombie neighborhoods…
http://www.theprovince.com/business/Vancouver+rental+home+supply+dries+with+video/10417103/story.html
This sounds like a rear-ender whiplash dream! Too bad ICBC has something to say about that. Don’t count too high on the settlement. Go ahead with the chance to have children but pay off the credit card. Life is unpredictable but you can make wise decisions! Listen to Garth and invest what you can. You can thank him later!
Garth, didn’t you see my email about child hockey players? There are more NHL’ers than rock stars. They should buy lotto tickets, looks like the only hope.
If you are dealing with ICBC lawyer up. Of the three accidents I have been in my lawyer always got me more in my pocket than ICBC offered even when his percentage fee was taken into account.
Twice it was way more.
If you are dealing with ICBC call bob carfra in Victoria. It will be worth your while.
post, not email.
#30 Inglorious Investor
You are correct… action does speak louder than words…
Thanks
#2 North Burnaby on 11.28.14 at 7:26 pm
The gas is down big today, wouldn’t this translate to more money being spent on paying down mortgage balances for a lot of Canadians?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Contrary to urban myth, gasoline costs are really only a minor cost in owning a car. The cost of depreciation of the car, repairs and insurance dwarf the cost of gas. So then taking a small saving on a minor cost is not a big whup. It may make the difference of a latte a week…. maybe… if you get it at Tim’s or MacD’s and not at Starbucks. Not much to put toward a mortgage.
Where you’ll really feel the pinch is in higher taxes as the BC government realizes that they screwed the pooch on LNG and nobody wants to invest now. Your future tax bump from the $$$ they already spent because they thought an LNG windfall was on the way will be massive. And unlike gas prices taxes NEVER come down.
It’s ironic how many forget the last energy correction, hell even the goldbugs must be having their moment of clarity.
Comparing broad based ETFs like ZCN or XSP against sector plays like XGD or XEG is the difference between investors and speculation.
Just pull up the 5 year charts to figure it out.
http://www.blackrock.com/ca/individual/en/products/239839/ishares-sptsx-capped-energy-index-etf
There’s nothing quite as painful like trying to catch a falling knife.
#21 Jimmy
Excellent movie = Idiocracy.
Greatest movie of the 21st century. A documentary disguised as a hilarious comedy.
@#2 North Burnaby
“The gas is down big today, wouldn’t this translate to more money being spent on paying down mortgage balances for a lot of Canadians?”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Hmmmmm
The Chevron at Hastings and Willingdon was selling regular gas last week for $1.29/liter and this week its $1.21……….So im gonna run to the RBC at Kensington mall and make a mortgage payment because “I’ve saved 8 cents a litre”?
Are the fumes from the Chevron refinery and the Shell plant in North Burnaby getting to you?
#28 vancouver right? on 11.28.14 at 8:17 pm
why is there gona be fire and brimstone in the patch ? oil was at 65 just 4 short years ago…during the crash of 08/09 the albertans were chasing their crown&cokes with dom….its all goooooood
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Today it’s different.
The Patch, like everyone else, pigged out on cheap debt. In the old days, you drilled new wells with an equity raise or cash flow from successful wells. This high “Recycle Ratio” allowed you to keep on going. Today’s wells suck; production rates are lower and the initial blast of production peters out quickly. Instead of issuing stock and diluting the crap out of their existing shareholders like they used to, the companies borrowed up to the gills. Big difference in where the $$$ come from. If it was equity and a duster came in, you could just shrug your shoulders and try to raise more $$$. With bank debt, they cut the scrotum off your truck. Much more dangerous game. In the old days, bank debt was used to even out cashflow. But with the ultra cheap $$$, it is now used to fund primary exploration. No different that getting a float from the local loan shark to go bet the ponies.
Just keep an eye on National Bank and Canadian Western Bank. Owies comin’ all around.
“The country needs engineers, doctors, and lawyers having babies.”
There goes Mark undermining his own credibility again.
#20 visorman30 on 11.28.14 at 8:01 pm
Been there, done that, and got back the 20% withheld as part of my tax refund because I was in the lowest tax bracket.
Peter and Christa – many of the preceding comments are factually correct or reasonable opinions. Consider them all, carefully. In the end, having children is a deeply personal decision and priority. You can proceed as hoped, but recognize that for you to do this and still emerge with healthy finances you will need a degree of discipline, strategy, and good fortune you have yet to show or experience. To be financially fit parents you’re going to have to be a lot better than you have been, or are right now.
Can you freeze the embryos, take a year to both work your buns off (and retire as much of your debt as possible, perhaps even save some dough), then proceed with attempting implantation? Once the embryos are frozen you’re not worrying about egg or sperm age, so perhaps another year’s delay in transferring the embryos won’t too adversely affect your chances of a healthy child.
Every cloud has a silver lining. Cheap oil is good for airlines and auto stocks. Air Canada and WestJet are rocking! GM is up big time. Oh but wait, a few months ago everyone was selling off the airlines because of HIGH OIL PRICES and EBOLA. They were selling off the auto stocks because of recalls. And now, just a few months later, that`s all changed. Buy on weakness and wait! Oil is weak, you figure out the rest!
I live in a town with lots of welfare/ODSP (Ontario Disability Program) folks. An amazing number have three, four and more kids. It’s a racket for them to collect baby bonuses and other government goodies. We have created a system where idiots have more incentive to procreate than smart folk. Canada is doomed.
Hi Garth,off topic but I was wondering is it legal to have more than one TFSA .I have one account maxed out and I was weighing up my options about what to do with my other savings.
Have as many as you want. But your overall contribution room does not change. — Garth
My poor mom just passed at 91…she had 7 kids. Count them…seven. She marvelled at today’s choices and always said she would have preferred maybe three. My parents did it on dad’s WORKING CLASS salary. No treats; no TV until I was ten. Only church activities as there was no money. Lots of hand me downs. No new furniture; no new nothing. Really Petey time to wakey wakey and smell the coffee. Kids are not all they are cracked up to be. You do not need kids to be good folks.
At least the Ndewfies have access to refineries – Alberta and Sask. are hooped. Just like 1980 all over again – We have seen this play out before. Job losses and mortgage defaults. Big losses to the CMHC and the Canadian Taxpayer!!
I think it is a bit funny how scared people are to have kids after the decrepit age of 35. Both of my grandmothers had their last kids at 34 and 35 and they were fine. It seems like it is ok to have your last few in your 30s but WOAH…better not start late or you’ll end up with a Kid with scoliosis and a career as a bell ringer.
Having said that, as a supply ECE in full day kindergarten, I can tell you I have never seen worse kids in my life. Is it from having kids too late? Maybe. Its not like people have the same energy at 37 as they do at 27. They also have by that time something called a “career”, and that means more to them than anything else. I think it’s funny because for so many it’s their career that defines them but one afternoon with them and their bratty kids will leave a bigger impression than being a dentist ever will.
So yes, there are more kids with ADHD diagnosed all the time but I think its just a scam to let sh’tty parents off the hook. It’s not rocket science that parenting by guilt will produce monsters.
I could go on but I’m done… For now.
So only $5500 each year in ALL accounts or $5500 in each account?
All. — Garth
#28 vancouver right?
No there won’t be fire and brimstone in the patch, but there won’t be new 25 year old’s making 200K a year and driving $70,000 pick up trucks and buying $500,000 houses either.
“Cheap oil is good for airlines and auto stocks. Air Canada and WestJet are rocking!”
Sounds good, until you stop and think about exactly who AC and WestJet’s clientele are. Heavily discretionary/leisure travel by people who derive a lot of their income from the oil and gas industry, and government.
So while the planes might be cheaper to fly around, there’s likely to be far fewer people on them. I don’t see that really being good for the profitability of either organization.
hey blog lot. been away with my own disability. not counting on any settlement though, you have to make it on your own!
my friend in québec today was telling me how she’s quitting her job at SNC to go work in Ft. Crack. Work doing what, I said, not sure yet, she said. Crikey. Never buy and sink money into a house! Her reno has bankrupted her. But she still boasted to me how her mortgage was $700 and her tenant paid $760 and how I am silly to pay $1,300 in Vancouver. But I live in downtown Vancouver and she lives in the QC bush. She asked for a layoff, and to my surprise, they said no. I almost felt like reporting her if they had said yes. But hey, you pay into EI so you might as well use it… part of the upcoming social crisis for our so called middle-class.
Well, it does seem that some people know what to do, but need some email from Garth to show their spouse or to get that final push to do what they need to do. Funny how we work. They present the fertility treatments as the only option, but hard to say without knowing more. At least they are considering having a family and its implications, instead of defaulting into it by carelessness like many people.
Well, engineers procreating (oxymoron?) is kind of a good point:
Babies from professional families heard an average of 2,100 words per hour.
• Babies from working class families heard an average of 1,200 words per hour.
• Babies with parents on public assistance heard an average of 600 words per hour.
from http://blogs.babycenter.com/mom_stories/parents-who-talk-to-babies-have-smarter-kids/
lol I was just reminded that both my parents are doctors and I speak 4 languages, therefore the above must be true. Stats and empirical evidence, just like with real estate….
Re: #16 …. on 11.28.14 at 7:53 pm
They should consider sponsoring a foster child overseas instead.
#51 Van isle renter
You sound like a salty veteran roughneck van isle but the narrative your telling me sounds like a tale from the 80s I’m talking about 4 years ago as in the time it takes to put 100k on that still shiny 2010 cummins dodge.
#63 Mark
The planes are full! Air Canada and WestJet both have very high load factors.
#3 Whinepegger & # 21 Jimmy
I liked both your posts, thanks, as what you both had to say about reproduction is bang on.
Its funny how yesterday I said that oil was soon heading down to about the $62 range in the next 3 months. Boy was I wrong about that, more like 3 days instead of 3 months.
You guys want to see a REAL-TIME chart of oil prices crashing?
Go here:
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=NYMEX_CL.F15.E
Now here is some news you probably DON’T want to hear about. For a while now there was a lot of talk that Ukraine would soon begin to build their nuclear arsenal in secret, but that would be impossible because it would take $ Billions to do such a thing and Ukraine does not have the money.
Well, Ukraine has just stopped financial payments to Eastern Ukraine; the amount of money re-diverted to somewhere else: $2.2 Billion. Oh-oh.
#63 mark
Hahaha mark that was funny, you really believe all the people flying around on air planes are cra auditors and rig pigs? buddy ur brutal
Oil prices will come back always have always will. Everything we purchase such as clothes, home finishings, furnishings, coverings, medical equipment, communications, IT, auto’s and yes even all food is derived from oil.
#62 Piccaso
Oil price drop will lead to tough times for Alberta, Premier Jim Prentice says
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/oil-price-drop-will-lead-to-tough-times-for-alberta-premier-jim-prentice-says-1.2854229
You guys that keep bringing up airlines and the benefits they are receiving from lower oil prices all sound as if you have stocks in the companies. I bet not and by the way have you heard of any airline companies reducing their fares due to lower oil prices. Nope.
“the welfare crowd”
idiot
#62 Picasso
Oh ya ur totally right Picasso the oil sands are full up of 25 year olds. The huge swath of experienced guys approaching retirement and the industry continued calls and wails of a labour shortage and skills gap mean those young guys should burn that welding ticket and head to philosophy school. Get a grip bro
I disagree with worrying about the “right time” to have kids. There is never a “right time”. I realized a few years ago that it was wrong to wait for a house, that bringing up a kid in an apartment was a normal thing for lots of folks, etc. Life couldn’t be better with kids, regardless of all the stress they cause, money they suck and time they occupy.
Don’t wait. And dont be stupid, wasting money on fertility freezing. A 26er and a 1/8th of weed is about 11,950 dollars cheaper.
#46 TnT on 11.28.14 at 9:04 pm
there is book titled Other Losses, written by James Bacque, that shine the light on what happened under command of Dwight D. Eisenhower, with german prisoners, very good read!
“The planes are full! Air Canada and WestJet both have very high load factors.”
Right now. But give it a few months… I don’t think anyone 3-6 months ago would have predicted a move from $100 to $65 oil happening in such a short span of time. Especially when the market does not appear to be oversupplied.
“Hahaha mark that was funny, you really believe all the people flying around on air planes are cra auditors and rig pigs? buddy ur brutal”
That’s a good chunk of the traffic. People taking holidays on the strength of their RE gains, or good jobs in government or the oil and gas sector. Don’t underestimate how pervasive the RE bubble, the government bubble, and high oil prices have been in terms of propping up consumer spending in the Canadian economy.
On a lighter note did any one catch this on the canucks game .. lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Er-7cGnIACE
And I would add to Garth’s advice, look for jobs in a less-expensive city, because kids are damn expensive. But, if you live near family, that *can* be a built-in savings (free daycare).
And remember any debt you carry, the interest rate you pay is effectively what you need to be earning on investments for it to make sense for you to carry that debt. If you’re not beating 10.99% on your RRSP investments, cash them out and get that credit card balance to 0.
#76 Vancouver right?
I said there won’t be any newbies financing raised 70K pick ups or financing 500K houses with $65 oil
Are you one of them that’s financed to the max?
lol
“No there won’t be fire and brimstone in the patch, but there won’t be new 25 year old’s making 200K a year and driving $70,000 pick up trucks and buying $500,000 houses either”
There never really were 25-year-olds making $200k/year in the Alberta patch, even at the height of it back in 2006-2008. And the past few years were substantially more muted compensation-wise. Try closer to half of that, and that’s assuming they worked 70+ hours a week and/or were independent contractors for which the $200k had to cover a considerable quantum of work-related expenses. And even then, such jobs are mostly only available to farm-boy jackscrews. Or Newfies. On account of needing upper decile physical stamina and overall toughness.
Alberta hourly compensation really isn’t all that different than Ontario or elsewhere in Canada for jobs. They just tend to work a lot more hours and overtime racks itself up quickly. The human price extracted to put in all those hours is quite severe for most.
“There goes Mark undermining his own credibility again.”
There’s nothing wrong with my credibility. Why don’t you worry about your own? Because it appears to be in shambles after your little display earlier.
#4 Mark
“The country needs engineers, doctors, and lawyers having babies.”
well, having a father who is a very well regarded and prolific ed psych, I’d say this is probably not going to pan out well. Some of his worst cases were kids from families of dual doctors, lawyers and the like. Why? Because the parents spent so much time on their careers that the kids were parked in front of a video game console half the time. They grow up to underperform at school and have other issues.
I think what you are trying to say is that we need parents who are responsible and capable of raising functional, contributing members of society, no matter what profession they happen to have. I sympathize, as our welfare system does subsidize (and hence incentivize) single moms who do a bad job of raising kids.
Having kids is not an economical or rational decision. Its about wanting to have a family or not period. So if you want them then don’t hesitate and get it done. 35 is still young enough to have kids.
Wants are not always needs. — Garth
Here’s some more realtor Kool-Aid out of Vancouver
http://www.century21.ca/renee.pelland/Blog/Home_sales_in_Vancouver_are_showing_no_sign_of_slowing_down
Here’s some more realtor Kool-Aid out of Vancouver part 2
http://www.century21.ca/renee.pelland/Blog/Positive_outlook_for_housing_starts_in_2015
Consider adopting a cat or a dog from a shelter. All the love at a fraction of a cost of a baby.
Here’s some more realtor Kool-Aid out of Vancouver part 3
http://www.century21.ca/renee.pelland/Blog/33_offers_spur_bidding_war_on_West_Vancouver_home
#60 Chickenlittle
There are always exceptions and outliers. Generally, starting with the late 30s, chances of successful conception and delivery of a healthy baby plummet on a monthly basis. The biological clock is there for a reason, it’s trying to tell you something.
Let see,the couple make a little more than average median income in Vancouver but good child daycare is very expensive and hard to come by in Canada’s most affluent city.If grand ma looks after the kid then you might be ok.The government must hate families because its to costly without subsidized daycare.Move to a cheaper city and pay down debt first than think of having a kid.Do you really want to bring up a kid in this country the way its going.
Say it ain’t so, Garth. Will the madness never end?
From the WSJ.
Some of the largest U.S. mortgage lenders are preparing to further ease standards for borrowers after the release of new guidelines this month from mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
US lenders are, on average, vastly more restrictive than Canadian ones. — Garth
Cow town faces a WOLRLD OF FINANCIAL PAIN , JOB LOSSES and REDUCED HOURS for those LUCKY to still have a job. Look for many to go bankrupt and lose it all in the housing/credit BUBBLE. It could even hit $50 and stay there for YEARS
A world of hurt is coming http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/oil-price-drop-will-lead-to-tough-times-for-alberta-premier-jim-prentice-says-1.2854229
Make no mistake tough times not just for Alberta but Toronto as well. Who do you think puts that money to work? No money = financial pain in Toronto.
Re: #217 Tnt
Kennedy wanted to pair down the Vietnam involvement after he gave explicit instructions that the Vietnamese president was not to be killed and the CIA did it anyways.
He started to realize that their power was getting out of control and was usurping the authority of elected officials. They were starting to be a governing authority unto themselves.
It is well known that JFK had intended to destroy the CIA. It is also well known that JFK wanted to fire Hoover at the FBI, who was also abusing his powers, but was rebuffed after a meeting in which it is speculated that Hoover blackmailed him about his extramarital affairs.
During the Cuban missile crisis, many in his cabinet as well as the joint chiefs were in favor of a nuclear first strike against the USSR! He has been quoted as being completely shocked by the utter disregard for human life many of them were exhibiting. How many other presidents would have remained cool headed enough to work through that tumultuous event diplomatically? Probably none that were born in the 20th century – they were almost all war-hawks.
JFK wasn’t perfect, but he actually gave a damn about the USA and it’s principles. Something that can’t be said about almost all the subsequent presidents that justify away all the evil acts they commit.
Here’s a document that the joint chiefs authorized that was rejected by Kennedy. It advocates for false flag attacks against Americans in order to spur support against Cuba! Now, this was 50+ years ago, imagine what they’ve come up with since then?!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Northwoods
Anyone that believes governments is a gullible fool.
Re: #226 bill
In your mind, what are the reasons behind why wars are started?
It must be a simple “there’s one bad guy and another good guy and they fight. the good guy fights for justice while the bad guy fights because he is evil” – kind of like in comic books.
War is much more complicated than this simplistic version that is offered through our history books.
MANY special interests are working behind the scenes, lobbying to enrich themselves for various reasons. Armaments manufacturers want more profits. Resource companies want lucrative mineral rights that they couldn’t get access to otherwise. Banks want wars because regardless of who wins, there is more interest bearing debt owed to them. Governments want more power, and most empowering legislation is passed (and never repealed) during times of war. The list goes on…
And what does the common man want? To live his life in peace. To be happy. To take care of his family. There really is no reason for the common man to fight in a war in which his only benefit is to come back alive – most of the time he does not, he is impoverished, and his family in tatters.
You need to wake up. I’m sorry to have disturbed you from your slumber. But your mentality is hurting others around you. When you vote, vote for peace.
The Swiss Franc was based on a 40% gold-reserve from 1936 until 2000. This Sunday the people of Switzerland are going to the polls to vote on a return to the gold standard. This may mark the end of Western monetary dominance.
You gold guys are whackos. — Garth
If our forefathers and foremothers had not risked it all to give birth to us all there would be no greaterfool.ca and no you or I at all .
That’s a bad thing? — Garth
For those of you women out there who want kids, 35 isn’t to late but it’s pretty close to the last stop at the station.
So let’s imagine you have a kid at 40, and now he or she is 10. Are you still skiing with him/her? Camping in a tent at 50? No you are not. Playing street hockey in the driveway? Ha ha.
If you have your kids late, the will be raised as if by grandparents. If you didn’t figure things out in your 20’s or to 35 well guess what? It really wasn’t that important to you and still isn’t so don’t do it.
And I am not even talking about the medical risks older women face. Those haven’t changed in 100,000 years. If you want babies, get your $hit together by 30 at the latest.
And don’t give me stories about the one that worked. I see the down kids at the park, and the neglected ones.
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Seems pretty dumb to me for a woman to have children so late in life. The odds of having a downs syndrome child go way up as the woman gets older. They think they have fiscal problems now?
I’m hammered, I say honey let’s go for a drive.
Are you put of your mind……
I said no…. The chic a the car rental company, who hosed us on black Friday, talked me into taken the 26 dollar insurance, just walk away if you smash it..
I’m sure some bastard will give me road rage… Drop it to the pedal… Ram the bastard..
Honey I need to go to cheetahs. It’s a book thing..
Ok my love, do what you got to do..
Sometimes marriage is good..
Adventure coming up…
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Having kids is a gamble – frozen or fresh they are going to surprise you. Money is relative when kids are concerned. They need a ton of stuff but it does not need to be new stuff. They cost lots but so does the yearly vacation or a couple of dinners out a week. They provide no direct economic return. We’ll, a few tax credits maybe.
And they are the most precious things you can have.
Your call. But money is not and cannot be the determining factor. There is no right amount and there is never enough. If you really want kids go for. Try the old fashioned way… Even a miss can be a hit.
Nice work Sir .
Re:
60 Chickenlittle on 11.28.14 at 10:25 pm
I think it is a bit funny how scared people are to have kids after the decrepit age of 35………..
……….but WOAH…better not start late or you’ll end up with a Kid with scoliosis and a career as a bell ringer.
**********************
WoW . Bell ringer. My wife and I Laughed so hard at that!
No advice tonight, But I require a stupid truck for the company. The fuel is just over $1 in vancity tonight , and certain more is to come in that downward direction, (we are reaping the benefits of it already, because it makes my operation costs lower). Oh, snow is falling here too.
Peter and Christa:
You obviously want children and your window is closing. Children are work but you will never regret a wanted child. Take any measures necessary – you will know that you tried everything you could. The small amount you have saved could never outweigh the joy a little bundle of joy will bring you.
Hi Christa: I had my child at age 41, and here is some very valuable advice for the two of you from an actual mom.
First of all, if you are injured, be aware, as other posters have suggested, that pregnancy is tough. So healing from your disability and getting in good physical shape would need to be happening now, and on a regular schedule.
Second, do NOT wait too long if having a child is really important, because when your kid is a teen and you are the age of most of his friends’ grandparents, you realize why people have kids when younger. The physical toll will be easier in two years than it will after 40.
Start changing your diet now, and research everything you can on holistic dietary changes that will enable you to produce healthy breast milk for as long as possible, as that is harder for older parents. But under age 40, you are still in a “safe” zone.
Realize that “conventional medicine” fertility treatments raise the risk of ovarian cancer – substantially. So if that disease is in Christa’s family, you may wish to look at all-natural options such as Chinese medicine.
There is nothing as wonderful as family. But please, also make a debt reduction plan as best as you can. Christa will NOT be working for some time after the baby is born. Prepare for that now — but don’t get so obsessed with killing your credit card debt that you wait too long to conceive.
While kiling debt is important, your best chance of having a healthy child is doing it before age 40. Money can come and go; debt can be taken care of later. But you will only be under age 40 for a limited time and that is not a “re-do.” So you must decide which of those two risks to take.
Eliminating toxins from your diet from now on is your best chance of having a healthy child. A whole foods diet of mostly organic foods, purchased on sale – more work to shop that way, but we found it made a huge difference. A good naturopath and Chinese herbalist to help would not hurt either. You MUST support your body for the child to be healthy.
The old “your body is a temple” adage is true when you are hosting your baby in there. AVOID all products with BPA, and plastics in general if possible — Use all glass baby bottles & stainless steel BPA -free ones for you.
Good luck! Our son is a teen now, First Place winner of 2013 BC Youth Week for rock band, and his original songs earned him a spot in Lollapalooza 2012.
One more bit of advice — enjoy the little guys when they are little cause when they’re teens, if you say “the sky is blue” they will say, “F— no it’s not.” And so it goes.
Black Friday Observations:
1. Deal Of The Day:
Air Wick Freshomatic Replacement Canisters:
Regular Price $4.98 – $5.98
No Frills Sale Price $3.77 PLUS Coupon Available for $3.00 per. Actual Cost to Consumer $0.77 (what a deal)
2. Least Busy Shopping Outlets:
Brewers Retail (The Beer Store) and Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO)
Virtually no one in either in mid-afternoon trading (cash for hangovers). Guess the blog dawwwgs and booze hounds were pounding the malls for imported electronics.
#67 Vancouver right? on 11.28.14 at 10:51 pm
#51 Van isle renter
You sound like a salty veteran roughneck van isle but the narrative your telling me sounds like a tale from the 80s I’m talking about 4 years ago as in the time it takes to put 100k on that still shiny 2010 cummins dodge.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Four years ago interest rates were crashed to postpone the carnage. Free money made the dip in oil prices last only a few months instead of several years.
As GT says, debt is forever. And Banks have no sense of haha. When they start calling operating loans in Calgary, it will be all over in a matter of weeks, Also is 2009, as natural gas prices collapsed (went from $12/mcf to $2/mcf) oil prices remained relatively good and then massively decoupled from gas. On a contained energy value oil should trade at max 10X nat gas. That means a North American Value of $45/bbl. Long ways down to go IMHO.
I stand by my statements: The cheap money has caused massive dislocations of capital, not only in real estate, but in other industries as well. And when the banks want it back, the Fat Lady sings.
My friend who lives in Calgary just got laid off. He was liked. He had a 110k paying job at 32. A management job that didn’t demand expertise.
When times of easy profits go away, companies start laying off people, starting with unnecessary management. Those are the higher paying jobs. Those are the people that bought the more expensive condos and houses.
2 North Burnaby: “The gas is down big today, wouldn’t this translate to more money being spent on paying down mortgage balances for a lot of Canadians?”
*********************
Nope. Just a wee bit more to dribble away on nonessential consumer goods. LOL
#76 Vancouver right?
I originally agreed there won’t be fire and brimstone in the patch, but if you think it’s business as usual with 40% off oil… your living on hope.
Did We Just Witness The Last Great Black Friday Celebration Of American Materialism?
http://investmentwatchblog.com/did-we-just-witness-the-last-great-black-friday-celebration-of-american-materialism/
#61 For those about to flop: “So only $5500 each year in ALL accounts or $5500 in each account?”
******************************
If we could put $5500 “in ALL accounts” we’d all have hundreds of TFSAs now, wouldn’t we?
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Black Friday, or rather, Blood Bath Friday.
“The Canadian sector will be impacted more than many oil-producing jurisdictions around the world by OPEC’s decision Thursday to not cut oil production, said Canadian Natural Resources chairman Murray Edwards”
“Prices could spike down to $30, $40. It got down to $35 in 2008, for a very short period of time”
In the light of that Financial Post article, I’ll hold my enthusiasm and wait to buy more $XEG, Whitecap, Surge. Even the natural gas companies might keep getting sold. Peyto included.
#87 Not 1st: “Having kids is… about wanting to have a family…”
*********************
I wanted kids. I didn’t ‘need’ them. I had three. And I wouldn’t have changed a thing. It’s a personal choice.
#92 Devore: “The biological clock is there for a reason, it’s trying to tell you something.”
******************
True. And that’s precisely why grandparents do not have the energy or the stamina to care for their grandkids on a daily basis. ;-)
People tend to project recent events into the future. Low oil prices will not last for ever (I think not very long either). This is good opportunity to load up on oil companies. I am now buying stocks like Schlumberger, Halliburton, Imperial oil, statoil – they are all on sale. There will be short term pain – but the whole idea is to buy low and sell high (most people cannot do it because they cannot take the pain).
#105 Jay Currie: “They need a ton of stuff but it does not need to be new stuff. They cost lots but so does the yearly vacation or a couple of dinners out a week…..and they are the most precious things you can have.”
**********************
Exactly.
@#97
Cato the Egregious
10,000 monkeys typing for 10,000 years couldnt replicate the drivel you regurgitate ad nauseum from the internet.
My scrolling finger is blistered from bypassing your paranoid endless blithering.
Time for a ride in the elevator.
#60: You are correct, lots of women had children in their late 30’s & 40’s. But – they had previously had children. Once you have one baby, it is easier to have another for various medical reasons. Starting in your late 30’s or early 40’s is very tough on the female body. Can it be done? Of course it can. However, the age of the parents – as Vangrl says, the age of the father also matters – does make a difference in whether a child will be conceived & also increase the chances that child will be born with a disability. And as someone else commented, think it through. IF this couple managed to hit the jackpot first try, 9 months from now the newborn arrives. By then they are both of them 9 months older, maybe 36 depending on their birthdays. 36 plus 18 is age 54. This couple will be 65 before their putative child is 30 years of age & that is quite the generation gap. It isn’t like the child can be returned if this couple decides they don’t want to be parents after all.
@108 Gtrz4peace
Chinese medicine fertility treatments? Don’t those guys snort powdered rhino tusk?
@#64 raisemyrent
“she’s quitting her job at SNC to go work in Ft. Crack. Work doing what, I said, not sure yet, she said….”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Another former SNC employee sees the light and escapes the asylum.
No one actually worls at SNC they just push paper from dept to dept.
She quit to maintain her sanity or she’s moving to Ft. Crack because she is insane.
Was it the Triplets or the cocking of the gun?
What do you think? — Garth
Some economists think OPEC waited too long to try and control fracking for oil .The BNN show(weekly with Andrew McCreath) last night they explained for every dollar below $75 a barrel Saudi Arabia runs a deficit which could be in the billions if oil stays down to long .Interesting news to hear. Also mentioned watch for new technology to increase production and lower costs in Alberta and fracking for oil.
Because it’s on BNN does not mean it is correct. The cost of pumping Saudi oil is about $30, not $75. They are making plenty of dough right now, and there’s room for further decreases. — Garth
Interesting interview on US oil production.
“Incremental costs to keeping the oil flowing could require only $40 or $45 a barrel, maybe a little lower…”.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/shale-oil-u-s-will-see-major-drop-in-activity-verleger-WuaFCWsYQdO8ZEXIG97D4A.html
Mark # 79
I don’t think anyone 3-6 months ago would have predicted a move from $100 to $65 oil happening in such a short span of time. Especially when the market does not appear to be oversupplied.
Correct, there is only a small difference between supply and demand and it’s growing. But, lower prices will force out marginal producers and prices will rise. In the meantime, cheap oil is great for the U.S. economy and specific sections such as the transports. Like it or not, the U.S. is leading the way and will continue to do so. Investors with a long time horizon and a nicely balanced portfolio will benefit.
Pete and Christa, don’t panic.
My wife and I started our family after we had both turned 40, she was 43 when she had our son.
He is thirty now and has shown no signs whatsoever of mental defects:
-he is not part of Ford nation or a Harper or Hudak supporter
-he recognizes women’s rights as human necessities (and has married a great gal)
-he sees neoconservatism for the cowardly stupidity it is
-he understands just what an empty fraud Ayn Rand and her ilk are
-he does not buy gold
-he does not believe in ‘the illuminati’ or other such bunk, unless he is shopping Home Depot for light fixtures
-he knows we must change our use of the environment or face serious consequences in our own lifetimes
-he rents his home and carefully invests his earnings elsewhere and does not plan to buy until at least 2017
See? No mental defects at all.
Plus, he reads this blog regularly and told us about it, even told us to steer clear of postings by pompous idiots (Cato, Smoking Man, Mark and a few other gasbags of idiocy)
Hmm, this kid has superior intellect after all!
So Pete and Christa, you do have time. Don’t panic.
Good luck to you both!
#97 Cato the Elder on 11.29.14 at 1:36 am
Gullible? your the one that believes your drivel not me.
I said before : dont insult my intelligence …
If they want a baby, let them try, I hope it works out. At least they have jobs and pay tax. What about all the other prople out there sucking off the welfare with 5 kids and no job?
All the elements are there to create a nasty storm for Canada, it’s just a matter of timing. Low oil could be the beginning for the economy because we are just a one trick pony now. Then add rising rates next year, and if a good real estate melt gets traction, you might see all the boomers start heading for the exits a year after that..
Heres a question, what percentage of the work force in the oil sands is made up of people from out of province? I can think of at least 5 people i know of, and i am in Ontario. What effect would that have on the respective provinces if these people lost their jobs and came home with no work?
Hey Garth,
I have a question for you. If you don’t mind asking.
Would you consider TVIX as a hedge in the current market. I’m not asking how would you hedge your portfolio. :) I’m just asking your opinion on that particular stock.
Thanks in advance.
Preferred shares quietly rally…
At least they are “semi-profesionals” … they got that going for them … don’t they?
Dear Peter and Christa,
Couple of thoughts for you two to think about:
First, Christa, best of luck getting healthy again. Money can’t buy health or lost time due to being unhealthy. So concentrate on getting healthy.
Second, with one income right now, you guys are practising (I’m assuming) how to stretch that income to the max. I suggest you (no joke, I am serious as a heart attack) KEEP EVERY SINGLE RECEIPT – ask for them if you don’t get it immediately – and document in excel what you’ve spent on a monthly basis. From there, you can get a better understanding of how much money is spent on food, alcohol, entertainment, travel, etc. Most of these expenditures will be “variable” expenditures. From visually seeing how much is spent in each category, you can make decisions on how to minimize some unnecessary spending.
Also, IMO, whatever your “expected” future payout will be, I would discount it to zero. Leave it out of your budget. If it comes, great. If it’s significantly lower than you expected, it would dent your previous budget. And the farther you push it from mind, the better you can concentrate on more important things, such has paying debt and getting pregnant.
Third, it is the “Fixed” expenditures that hurt the most when things proverbially hit the fan. What I mean by “Fixed” expenditures is the things that can’t be lower/altered on a monthly basis, such rent, or interest on debt, car payments, etc. Pete and Christa, for this endeavour that you want to take, it’s paramount that you first make hard decisions on how you can (over the next year) minimize the future “Fixed” expenditures in your lives. If that means moving to a cheaper rental accommodation, do it. If it means changing your car to a lower-end model, or an older model, or taking the bus to work, or even walking (cheapest!), it’s something you should consider. It also means paying down the expensive credit card debt to lower monthly interest. Work with family members on a plan to ease this transition to a lower “Fixed” expenditure lifestyle.
At the end of the day, I believe you guys will be alright with having a kid and being able to tackle all your debt problems. It just takes making tough decisions (i.e. sacrifices) to lower your “Fixed” and “Variable” expenditures (and pray that the BoC doesn’t raise rates).
PS: If I were you, I wouldn’t withdraw the RRSPs for a number of reasons. It might be better to speak with the bank to borrow secured against them (at a low LTV!!) to pay off the credit card bills. And $3,000 in equities isn’t very much, nor likely to be accretive over the credit card bills. It might be put to better use to pay off the debt.
PPS: Peter, if you’re married, then her credit card bills are your credit card bills.
Good luck.
Daisy Mae ,I am not from this country.Thankyou for being concerned about where I put MY money!
Well Garth gives the honest truth about kids and finance.
1st – have the kids, spend the money. The fertility centers in Vancouver rock and work for us well.
2nd Asking if you can afford kids is nonsense one of the number one plagues for selfish Canadians. Have the kid and the budgeting and love will follow. ( hopefully)
3 the gov is offering more money to have kids 160 bucks ( sweet!)
God luck!!
Re: #130 happily
Your son isn’t retarded but he sure is gullible.
He’s right to disavow the neoconservatives – there’s not much conservative about them. They’re big government statists just like the liberals and NDP.
But how can anyone believe the propaganda that is global warming? I mean it’s been known for thousands of years that climate changes. Why should we accept lower living standards in order to accommodate the obsession of lunatics? The Chinese pollute a hundred fold more than we do and they aren’t committing economic suicide like we are.
The Sun affects the climate more than anything man could ever do. Hot and cold spots have been proven to be the basis for the fluctuations we see in various time periods. The Sun gives life and can take it away.
And your son, like many others, has been misled to think that even if the Earth is warming that it’s a bad thing. We are in an ice age! The last glaciation retreated thousands of years ago but that does not mean it ended. Most of Earth’s history there were no ice caps and it was much warmer than today. Any warming is the return to a historical mean.
Regarding his dismissing of libertarian teachings – shame on him. Libertarianism is the only moral governing principle: you own your life and liberty, and the product of it is your property. One can only acquire wealth by providing goods and services to their fellow man; in essence you can only get rich by helping others.
What distorted principle would your son base society on? Any proposal for government distribution of goods or services requires involuntary theft (taxes). In a free society, distribution is based on the amount of value a person provides to another – it is a moral allocation of capital that doesn’t use violence or coercion.
I would love to hear his proposal as I’m sure it will be based on logical fallacies like so many others are. Unbeknownst to most is that the only reason they have any wealth at all is because of the elements I just described (as advocated by Rand, Hayek, Jefferson amongst others). Sadly, those elements are being squeezed out of the system as our government grows larger and more powerful (notice we are becoming poorer too? They’re related).
Now onto women’s rights. Women don’t have a special claim to rights anymore than men do. Individual human beings regardless of belief, sex, or race have rights. Life, liberty, and the property derived through them are rights.
But I suspect your son supports ‘special privileges’, not rights. He probably thinks it’s ok to use violent force to compel business owners to pay more money to female workers, or to send tax dollars to give them benefits. Funny thing is this does not help them but hurts them. Employers just won’t hire them knowing the liability all this legislation causes (sexual harassment lawsuits etc.). And benefits will only make them dependent and not elevate them to the oft repeated ‘independent woman’ goal.
But statists often do not understand cause and effect and have an inherent inability to see the long term consequences of their decisions. I suspect based on your name that you have a pension provided to you most likely from a public institution. I am guessing that based on the description I just gave as your son is probably not much different than you are.
You really ought to learn a little bit about the free markets and entrepreneurs that gave you everything you have. It’s shameful to harp against the very system that provides you with such a wealth of products and services.
At the very least, tell your son to quit supporting causes that are trying to undermine it.
#68 Mr. Frugal
The planes are full! Air Canada and WestJet both have very high load factors.
————————–
I know the planes I fly on are full of people flying to Alberta to work. When Alberta slows these domestic load factors will take a hit. I am always amazed at how much travel is involved to keep the patch going
I wonder what the blog dogs think will happen to il prices in the next year? Care to bid?
Here’s my assessment.
OIL – April 2015 -$50
OIL – November 2015 – $40
OIL – April 2016 – $35
Calgary real estate???
April 2015 – down 20%
November 2015 – down 30%
April 2016 – down 40%
#83 picasso
why not picasso? there are projects in the oil sands that can go as low as 35 dollars production cost….and yes there will be new 25 yr olds financing lariat f350s , for all the reasons I stated above and if you think 65 dollar oil is long term you have been huffing your paint brush…how could i be an over extended millenial? ive been reading this blog since it started!
Free trade screwed us. We need to produce what we need here. Pulled out an old copy of Monopoly the other day… Made in Ontario.
@bubu #25
“Good to wait few more months in Alberta now with 400k in the bank… and jobs unrelated to oil or AB economy in general…”
WTF do you want to stay in AB if you’re not in oil & gas and have 400k in the bank?
Move to Hawaii if you can or at least the next best equivalent in Canada which is White Rock, BC.
#21 Jimmy
Re the movie “Idiocracy”.
I’d say it certainly is worth a watch.
But I would recommend just the first 45 minutes or so which is inspired. After that it begins to lose originality and degrades into the usual Hollywood mayhem that typically rounds out summer comedies.
But the point is well taken. The evolution of humankind does seem to be selecting for stupidity lately.
#142 vancouver right?
Okay dude, keep spending… this is nothing more then a little minor V correction in oil. The pit will keep expanding and hiring on $65 oil.
Enjoy your Lariat 350… is it a dually?
Cheers
#139 Cato,
easy there, pardner, the ideological pig is appearing through the lipstick.
Re: #30 Inglorious
I agree with you on this. I often wondered why Eisenhower didn’t dismantle the war state after WW2.
He was probably the last one that had the pull to do it. Had he even needed to institute dictatorial policies temporarily to destroy the war apparatus (intelligence services, military contractors, etc.) the American people probably would have stood behind him. That’s probably the only way it could be done, because their influence is so great – it would take an immensely powerful person to do it. He had a lot of clout as the former general that led the west to victory.
I don’t know how anyone an not see the 60s as an era in which the United States was completely overthrown by the military industrial complex.
First JFK, then MLK, then RFK. All people that understood the dangers of centralized government power, domestic spying, and the warfare state. How can anyone view this era of targeted assassinations as a coincidence? Lone assassins acting out of insanity in each instance? Why are no other leaders ever killed – especially the really evil ones?
I would say the evil ones are in fact the best protected, because they are serving the kinds of special interests that would commit such an act.
A great quote that many people should try to understand from MLK:
“Everything Hitler did was legal”
What did he mean by that? He meant that governments pass laws that enable their policies. Laws do not make a policy moral or ethical – it merely justifies their actions. We should understand and distinguish the difference.
#143 Just the Fax on 11.29.14 at 2:18 pm
Free trade screwed us. We need to produce what we need here. Pulled out an old copy of Monopoly the other day… Made in Ontario.
————————————-
Does that include fresh fruit and vegetables from November to June ? Think about it!
@ #148 Cato the Elder
Sadly you are probably not a history teacher. The text books are all propaganda as far as I can tell. Critical thought is not encouraged. Especially not down South.
The US is a powder keg. A nation in constant government warfare and a state of terminal paranoia. More guns than brains for sure and maybe even more guns than people.
It will be our downfall too. How safe is Canada really?
@Herb #147
Who is the pig here?
Re: #147 Herb
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GazZBvHhgQ
Nothing piggish about liberty.
Happily Retired #130,
Could you be more obvious?
Something.. Garth-o won’t answer this.
These 2x market ETF’s are tricky.
But there is no indication this is about to turn around. Just look at the chart.
http://bit.ly/11EpNCI
You’ve got a declining price…. way below the 50 DMA, and little to no institutional buying volume.
The other thing you have to worry about jumping in on this is last time it hit the 2 buck range, it did a 1 for 10 roll back of your shares. TWICE!! And just kept going down again to 2 bucks.
http://bit.ly/1FGdumo
I, like you, believe these markets are cooked, and the only thing holding them up, is easy money and world wide government bank intervention of biblical proportions.
But as they say… don’t fight the fed! or… you’ll get your arse handed to you.
#153 Blacksheep
Happily Retired #130,
Could you be more obvious?
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Huh???
I hope you mean that my points are obvious and self evident to anyone with a brain.
#146 Picasso. I agree with u totally new projects will be put on hold but the existing projects especially the older established ones will keep on turning and they all require staff to keep them running. I can tell by ur that ur a bit jealous of young guys with big trucks , but I’m not one of them sorry your art degree didn’t work out but you can paint some nice pictures to hang in your basement suite !
Thanks Grantmi for your answer.
I’m trying to find the way to hedge my stocks. I bought early January 2014 some IWN and SPY. I don’t want to see another September of 2014 without a hedge. I was really nervous. May be I have to sell it and wait till xmas rally and forget about the hedge. I guess I will figure it out during this weekend.
Thanks again.
This article was written in April of this year, BEFORE the price of oil tanked.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-30/shale-drillers-feast-on-junk-debt-to-say-on-treadmill.html
So it seems that there may be a difference between starting a family early and starting one later biologically speaking. Fair enough.
As a 35 year old chick I don’t even want to bother having kids now. My husband and I are fine with our furry kids.
#152 Cato the Elder on 11.29.14 at 3:30 pm
Re: #147
Nothing piggish about liberty
‘…………….
Communists fear liberty most of all.
It prevents them from living off the efforts of others.
Herb , by his posting, is a raging communist.
He wants us to work so he doesn’t have to.
Herb leave the Canadian workers alone, consider a move to cuba .
Most people I know in the 25-35 age range want NOTHING to do with having kids!
The only ones with them were oppsies….
There’s no time for kids nowadays, if there becomes some kind of kids app, maybe but otherwise, forget it. A waste of time.
#156 Vancouver right?
I own a few Dali’s and a Chagall, but no Picasso’s.
#160 Broadway Skytrain,
your problem is that us “commies” know that liberty is not the liberty to exploit, and you don’t know that your ideological masters like to keep those two conflated. Hence, anything that would limit
exploitation, sorry, profits, limits their “liberty”and must be “communist”.Was it Lenin who coined the term “useful idiots”? Admire yourself in the mirror, my friend.
#157 something
I`v been reading up on hedging and practicing with HSD for a couple of years. If you got a lot of time to waste you can also use options. It turns out that hedging is expensive even if you guess right and very expensive if you guess wrong, and have to hang around while your shorts get burned.
Like Garth says diversification is your best defense . If you get real worried just cash in your chips till you calm down.
I wish I was 35.
@just the Fax on 11.29.14 at 2:18 pm
“Free trade screwed us. We need to produce what we need here. Pulled out an old copy of Monopoly the other day… Made in Ontario”
Free trade with Canada screwed us. We in Nova Scotia need to produce what we need here.
RE: #139 Cato the Elder on 11.29.14 at 2:05 pm
But how can anyone believe the propaganda that is global warming? I mean it’s been known for thousands of years that climate changes.
Yes, our climate has changed for millions of years. But it has never changed this FAST. Species will not be able to adapt quick enough. ie: Tree species can move slowly north by reseeding but they can not move quickly enough to keep up with the current rate of warming.
Alberta Producers With Cheapest Oil Face Cascading Woes
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-27/alberta-producers-with-world-s-cheapest-oil-face-cascading-woes.html?cmpid=yhoo.bottomline
#127 down and out on 11.29.14 at 11:36 am
There are a lot of low cost oil fields still pumping in the Mid East.
A friend of mine was working for Nexen, formerly Can Oxi Petroleum, in Yemen 1999 and their production cost — out of the well and loaded onto the tanker at Port of Aden, was $1 USD/barrel. Allowing for inflation, today their costs are likely around $10/barrel similar to Russia’s.
Increasing security costs and instability are the real drivers of increased production costs and supply disruptions. Yemen being the prime example as their oil infrastructure is constantly targeted. Add to the list of other unstable producers: Russia, Nigeria, Libya, Sudan and Iran to see how fragile this price drop really is.
All it will take is a good old civil war or major terror strike in one of these places and the price will again revert to the mean.
Yes millenial.
Countless report have been produced about the shale and tar sand oil situation. They are out there and easy to find.
Personally, I think the government will bail out the oil industry by buying the junk debt directly from the bank, hedge fund and other institution holding the junk debt. By buying the junk debt they avoid a disruption of the debt collateral chain. QE in USA was more about bailing out the bank by buying the bad loads. Profitably the same thing will happen in Canada.
If they actually bail out the oil industry, it means the production stays flat. So they price might still keep going down because people are in debt up to their eyes ball and have no discretionary income to keep the economy growing.
If they dont bail out the oil industry, well I think it is pretty easy to see what will happen.
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/11/29/how-the-guaranteed-income-supplement-is-on-a-collision-course-with-tfsas/?__lsa=07e6-c6ac
Both GIS and TFSAs were created largely for the benefit of Canada’s lowest-income seniors. But a clever end-run revealed this month in the Financial Post showed how even relatively rich couples can contort their finances so that they, too, can collect GIS for three years, generating more than $60,000 of tax-free income. Some of the recent furor over this gambit suggests that either GIS or TFSA rules may eventually have to be readjusted a result.
#100 Dr. Experience on 11.29.14 at 2:18 am
For those of you women out there who want kids, 35 isn’t to late but it’s pretty close to the last stop at the station.
So let’s imagine you have a kid at 40, and now he or she is 10. Are you still skiing with him/her? Camping in a tent at 50? No you are not. Playing street hockey in the driveway? Ha ha.
If you have your kids late, the will be raised as if by grandparents. If you didn’t figure things out in your 20’s or to 35 well guess what? It really wasn’t that important to you and still isn’t so don’t do it.
And I am not even talking about the medical risks older women face. Those haven’t changed in 100,000 years. If you want babies, get your $hit together by 30 at the latest.
And don’t give me stories about the one that worked. I see the down kids at the park, and the neglected ones
***********************
For the most part I agree…but this only applies for the couch sitters, I am been back country hiking several times and the majority of hikers are in the 50 -70. There’s 20 – 40 year old out of shape, over weight with no energy.
It all comes down to priorities and responsibility. Money doesn’t matter when you leave this world. Try taking it with you? What is important is having enough smarts to sustain your safety until you pass. Life is about experience. No doubt money has its benefits, but so do experience and guiding.
The gov’t should pay a bonus those who DON’T have kids. We are saving the country money by not putting a drain on the school system, medical system…
People who choose to have kids should not get handouts. It’s their choice, deal with it! If this kidful parents can’t afford retirement, it’s their fault for having kids. Our generation is not having kids so that we can retire at 50 or so.
To raise a kid you’re probably throwing away a half million plus all the gov’t handouts you get.
It’s bad enough I have to pay a school tax that I’ll never use too…
User pay all the way I say!!!! From garbage, to roads, to school, to water….
Happily # 130,
“I hope you mean that my points are obvious and self evident to anyone with a brain.”
———————————–
When one attempts to influence others beliefs, it’s considered more effective to be patient and subtly sneak a talking point in here or there, so that reader does not become aware, they are reading propaganda.
In other words: Avoid being so obvious.
#163 Herb on 11.29.14 at 7:14 pm
do you feel explioted?
i sure don’t.
i took advantage of the world of opportunity afforded most all in a free country and as a result my master is only myself.
in your communist paradise no body is explioted?
i have had my share of shitty , dangerous, underpaid jobs (before engineering school) but nobody exploited me, i signed up voluntarily.
when they show up with a gun to tell you where and when to work, that is communism.
Dear Pete
You have no idea how much you can love another person until you have kids. It is the most intense love you can ever imagine. But, pay your debts first and you will be fine!
Peter, Christa and Garth:
We are renters in Calgary and delayed having kids,
partly because we had no money, and were $30,000 in credit card debt.
Debt mainly caused by “choosing” a low paying career (PhD researcher).
After getting out of Research, I was almost 40 by the time we paid off the debt and still could not afford to buy a house, but had enough savings to
pay for one round of IVF. Save to buy a house or have IVF? – no brainer – I chose IVF.
Luckily, the IVF worked first time, and at 41 I had twins – the best thing that ever happened to me
(other than meeting my husband).
We still can’t afford to buy a house or go on holidays…bla bla bla.. but who cares?
Being a parent is more magical than any other kind of “investment” –
wasn’t that the moral of Silas Marner.
Don’t delay the IVF – do it as soon as you can.
Fertility rapidly decreases in a woman in her mid to late 30’s, so doing it now increases your chances of it working.
Just make sure your clinic has a good success rate.
Yes, $12,000 is a lot, but I believe $10,000 can be applied
to the Medical expenses tax deduction.
Good luck.
But it has *never* changed this FAST
we have been taking measurements for 0.0000001% of the time the climate has been changing (The age of the Earth is 4.54 ± 0.05 billion years (4.54 × 109 years ± 1%)
we can use geologic evidence to project perhaps 0.0001% of the time the climate has been changing.
you seem pretty sure of what happened during 4.2 billion years(42,000,000,000) for which there is no evidence whatsoever.
it’s not co2. it’s the sun.
co2 is plant food, not poison.
personally i think the world is better off with vancouver NOT under a 2km thick ice sheet (like has happened before)
correction
4,200,000,000 of course
hey a longer growing season is what is needed for the next 7 billion to eat. imagine 2 crop turns in sask!
#167 kommykim
” the current rate of warming.”
———————–
dude you must have missed the memo it;s now ” climate change” since the warming thing didn’t really work out
it’s a worldwide cult.
As The Economist magazine reported in March, “The world added roughly 100 billion tonnes of carbon to the atmosphere between 2000 and 2010. That is about a quarter of all the CO2 put there by humanity since 1750.” Yet, still no warming during that time. That is because the CO2 greenhouse effect is weak and marginal compared to natural causes of global temperature changes.
simplyput7 : The couple may want to have a serious conversation about what they want to do, if they can’t have kids naturally or via fertility drugs, frozen eggs or IVF before they bankrupt themselves.
the key word being bankrupt
Renter’s Revenge : Chinese medicine fertility treatments? Don’t those guys snort powdered rhino tusk?
not all of them
Yes, $12,000 is a lot….
———-
And just add a zero, and you will know how much to save in the resp. Start now get the free 500 every year (who’s the commie now???)
As long as there’s enough kids to fund my CPP in a few decades, that’s all that matters.
Sterilize everyone after one kid after that is fine by me.
I was first born so that wouldn’t have affected me :)
#143 JusttheFax…I agree that “free trade screwed us.” It also killed the spirit of entrepreneurs. How can Canadians compete with other countries that have cheaper labour to produce products? We cannot keep up with union wages; we are dead before we start.
If and when you have a kid the energy comes within.
#58 bigtown…”You not need kids to be good folks.” Beautiful!
I don’t like the pressure on the youth so if if happens, great but if it doesn’t also great as life has endless posibilities. It is not the end.
#127 down and out
Because it’s on BNN does not mean it is correct. The cost of pumping Saudi oil is about $30, not $75. They are making plenty of dough right now, and there’s room for further decreases. — Garth
The argument they are making is not that Saudi oil is only profitable above $75, but rather that the government of Saudi Arabia needs a world price above $75 in order to collect enough revenue to finance their current level of spending.
I have no idea if this is accurate, and I don’t regard BNN as particularly reliable, but this is the argument they are actually positing. There is a similar speculation about Russia’s government needing high energy prices to keep on spending in the style to which they have become accustomed.
#139 – Cato the Elder
“One can only acquire wealth by providing goods and services to their fellow man; in essence you can only get rich by helping others.”
May I ask how old you are? Such a high level of naivety usually rests with the young, and with many baby boomers who never grew up, because they were never financially challenged throughout their lives.
I used to think along similar lines when I was in my early 20’s. Until I found out that everyone who cheated me, lied to me, swindled me, were aggressive, etc.. were doing SWIMMINGLY WELL financially. Mean while, I routinely got punished financially for my honesty, peaceful nature, and work ethic. Profits seemingly flowed, rather naturally I may add, to the most adapt at evil amongst us.
Today I live by the motto: Honesty is the poverty policy.
Daycare on the west side of Vancouver is $1400 – $1500 a month for a 1-3 year old. A live out nanny is $15 – $18 an hour. Not cheap to have kids.
This is me, narrated by my loyal friend, his name is Jack.
I read every post on here.
Conclusion, losers . Worriers… Let’s empress those people with perfume concealed smelly ass holes who con you into making you think your one notch lower than them . Their opinion matters, yours grasshopper is erlelavent.
You can have perfect parents, you can be perfect academic record. ..the star actor in Shakespeare play. Then you might slip. If your name was mark, it’s cool, he lived in one week what most humans could not do in a life time.
Two hours after the random generator is not in your favour. and your skin goes yellow. The homeless loser is six feet higher than you.
Don’t you wish you went all In with the pocket two’s. Followed your script, rather than one writen by an oblivious teacher who don’t know.
Humans is all I’m saying… After I publish my book, I got a confession here.
It’s going to be good…
is communism.
#176 Gigi on 11.29.14 at 9:27 pm
Dear Pete
You have no idea how much you can love another person until you have kids. It is the most intense love you can ever imagine. But, pay your debts first and you will be fine!
……..
Ya sweet Heart, and if God takes one of your kids away. What then… I’m going to kill god when I get up there.
Wasn’t my kid, but I inspired him..
God better hope I live for ever… Cause his ass is mine first chance I get..
The secret to real happiness is insanity. No longer required to measure up to someone’s expectations of you.. Free to be you…. Screaming at the moon. Or in my case constipation in the bathroom at Harris Laughlin, smoking two cigarettes at the same time in a no smoking room… I Love life.. Why can’t you bastards see this.
I recommend it to all…
“Both GIS and TFSAs were created largely for the benefit of Canada’s lowest-income seniors. But a clever end-run revealed this month in the Financial Post showed how even relatively rich couples can contort their finances “
This sort of situation isn’t unique to just TFSA’s. One could do the same by simply saving up their RRSP deductions. Or business investment losses. Etc., so as to create an income low enough to qualify for GIS. However, there are very clear downsides to doing so. I personally doubt that the TFSA program is going to be fundamentally altered just because of some very narrow corner case.
I personally know a man worth $20M (sold a bunch of land out in the Milton area to developers), who managed to reduce his taxable income so much that he qualified for low-income GST credits. All perfectly legal. Let’s just say that he has an excellent accountant and financial planning team working for him.
Let me put it this way. When you are old, your money wont appreciate your hard work and dedication. When you are sick, your money wont sit beside your hospital bed. When you die, your money won’t remember you or cry for you.
But your kids will. You only get one shot at living in this world. Do you really want to leave this world with some digits on your bank account?
Raise a healthy and happy family, enjoy good food, visit all the places this planet has on offer. And then when your time comes, hopefully you have single digits left in your account.
In other words, have kids to serve and admire you? That’s noble. — Garth
This one is coming from left field, or rather 3rd base, but any Jays fans out there?
Holy what a steal by AA this weekend.
Also
‘Most people I know in the 25-35 age range want NOTHING to do with having kids! ‘
I fall into this category. I don’t think I’d get any pleasure from being a parent. Maybe that’s not the point but if it’s not something I’d enjoy doesn’t it make sense to just not participate?
#181 bdy sktrn
As was pointed out repeatedly years ago by real scientists who are interested in doing real and serious science, the effects of CO2 are subject to diminishing returns. At the concentrations present on the planet, adding more or subtracting, even cutting by as much as half, just doesn’t have the impact one might think. Increasing methane or water vapor would be far worse. Of course, the concentrations must be in a certain range, in order to sustain plant life on one end, where it’s photosynthesized into oxygen, and not kill mammals on the other, because it’s poison.
Incensing panic and paranoia with bogus hockey stick graphs, fantastic doomsday models, misinformation, and other sensationalist nonsense is very shady and self-serving. Criminalizing CO2 does nothing to help us understand climate change, or to grow non-carbon based sources of energy. One, because something is obviously happening, second, because it’s running out. CO2 seems to be an easy and convenient mark, with the same kind of vitriol and viciousness directed at it that we reserve for things like, for example, cell phones vs other forms of distracted driving.
But, greenies, take heart! There is still lots of perfectly real, measurable, verifiable pollution in our air, ground and water, that no one is doing anything about.
35 is the tail end of female reproductive span as others have pointed out. If they want kids, they have to act immediately.
But I remember a post a while back where Garth said something to the effect that people at 35 now barely consider themselves adults, whereas he had an established career and 5 children at the same age. The cost of living is so stupidly high its just very hard to do the same thing now.
This couple needs to deal with their spending problem.
#139 Cato
I must admit I scanned through your rejoinder to me in spite of my sons smart advice.
You really are bigoted, lame, derivative and intellectually weak in every way one can imagine.
Your ideas are dumb and insupportable with any quality peer-reviewed information.
You are the face of stupid on the internet.
#137 For those about to flop: “Daisy Mae ,I am not from this country.Thankyou for being concerned about where I put MY money!”
******************
Interest earned on money deposited in TFSAs is non-taxable. It would be nice if we could open multiple TFSAs and avoid paying income tax completely but, we can’t.
#137:
Investment income earned in a TFSA is tax-free.
Withdrawals from a TFSA are tax-free.
Contributions are not tax-deductible.
It is time NOW that the alternative source of energy come forward and not be politically squashed. It’s called FREE Energy or Zero Point Energy, and Tesla had known about it and wrote about it at the turn of the century. Google it, and you will see what as being happening.
#97 Cato the elder: It was the anti Castro Cubans in Miami who had Kennedy killed. They couldn’t forgive him for pulling the air support and their propensity for revenge knows no bounds.
#188 LS in Arbutus: “Daycare on the west side of Vancouver is $1400 – $1500 a month for a 1-3 year old. A live out nanny is $15 – $18 an hour. Not cheap to have kids.”
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An economist once pointed out that if the mother doesn’t have a well-paying job, it’s not worthwhile to work outside the home. What does she actually clear after expenses?
#201
Anyone who praises the Castro regime is plain stupid.
Castro=Hitler=Stalin=Che
#196 CSI
But I remember a post a while back where Garth said something to the effect that people at 35 now barely consider themselves adults, whereas he had an established career and 5 children at the same age. The cost of living is so stupidly high its just very hard to do the same thing now.
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A profound point, CSI.
Beginning with the real estate bubble of the 1980s when the first boomers were buying in, subsequent generations have found themselves slowly squeezed out of housing as a measure of independence. Their hold on decent paying jobs as a measure of independence has been slowly strangled since that time through internships, precarious work, globalization and the enrichment of the 1%, fueled by idiots spewing free market nonsense while steadfastly building a new world of socialism for only the rich.
People my age (60s) have had such a relatively easy time. We joined workplaces that were desperate for bodies and moved up quickly if we were barely competent. We bought houses in slow markets and paid them off within five years. We had years of good pensions even in the private sector. We picked up cottages on the cheap and rental properties even cheaper.
Sure we had our flaws and challenges, maybe too much weed and too much senseless divorce, but we boomers were born on third base and we should never tell ourselves that we hit a triple.
I see this paradigm broken all around us now. Adolescence for most continues until the 30s now and growing up in the truest sense is a dream the younger may never realize.
Nature is not nearly so forgiving, sadly. Forty still means you are half done and reproduction is chancy if possible.
Remember the days when you could leave home after grade twelve, find work and a spouse and a house and have little ones within five years?
I do. It is such a profound disservice we have done to the young to undermine their ability to have this kind of life.
There will be hell to pay, and soon. The Occupy movement was a small precursor to the social disruptions ahead of us. This will commence in Canada in the next two years or sooner with a truly catastrophic real estate meltdown combined with massive unemployment and skyrocketing crime and loss of trust in our governments and institutions.
I will try to hide out at the cottage if I have to. There are some good hospitals near there and I could spend my last decades there fine.
But to be stuck in Canadian cities and especially the impoverished suburbs in the years ahead? That would be truly scary to me.
Re: #187 dondwest
There are no prohibitions on assertive, dominant behaviour. The only prohibitions should be on non-consual behaviours (stealing, fraud, etc.)
If you voluntarily agree to transact with one of these type-a personalities, that is a choice you are making. No government can protect people from their own stupidity.
Now, the point I make with my posts is that we don’t have a free market system. We have a system that rewards non consensual behaviour through government power. Taxes are not consensual and they force us to participate in programs we may disagree with.
Why should a pro-lifer’s taxes pay for someone else’s abortion? This violates religious beliefs.
Why should a cancer patient be prohibited from using medical marijuana? This violates their right to use their own body the way they want (yes, regardless of whether or not they hurt themselves, they should be allowed to do it)
Why should the productive of society pay for others’ who choose not to work? This is theft.
The list goes on. The real dangers aren’t from the people you have chosen to interact with in your life, but from those that have the power to force you to transact with them (big government).
We need to learn and understand this as a society to realize what is killing us economically.
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Re: #198 happily
So refute what I’m saying then. But you can’t. We are inundated with propaganda from various sources all the time that are really just disguised messages from special interests. So much so that people start to hold these silly beliefs as true in spite of all the evidence to the contrary.
Look, I used to believe a lot of this stuff too. But then I started to think critically about it and asked myself why I’m believing what other people are telling me instead if researching it myself. I think if you do that to you with an open mind you will realize it too.
Here’s an entry describing the CURRENT ice age we are still in. It stands to reason that if we are in an ice age, warming is nothing alarming:
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quaternary_glaciation
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Re: #201 jaguar
And who wanted involvement in Cuba? The military industrial profit complex. Like all other interventions, they profit.
LBJ had Kennedy killed. He worked with elements within the CIA to have it done. LBJ was a sociopath and was exactly the kind of guy military contractors wanted in the White House. Watch these two videos where Jack Ruby pretty much admits it.
In this short clip Jack Ruby says that if the alternative VP (Adlai Stevenson) had been chosen, Kennedy would still be alive:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TsZ59X2_46M
In this clip, Ruby says that people in the highest positions of power were behind it:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0qb-3Rv8K-k
Anyone that believes the bs put out by official sources is a naive fool.
Petey & Sweetie:
Raising a child is an awesome responsibility. Whether you procreate, or adopt it really doesn’t matter. Some find adoption even foster parenting repugnant, perhaps that’s why they don’t have their own kids. -end of Rant
#97 Cato the Elder
Last paragraph was your best ever!
#187 DonDWest
Being cheated, swindled, lied to by others is rather common in Euro-drived capitalism. Too bad you decided “stuff” was more important than integrity.
Integrity is kind of like virginity, once it is gone, it IS gone. Too Bad, you found the low road so comfortable.
The Golden Rule still works well enough for this guy.
Remember, “The Law of large numbers” will always prevail in everything we do. The more dumb people there are, the dumber we all have to be just to fit in.
#15 Mike
Move to Quebec. They have FREE IVF, but go quickly as it sounds like that’s going to change soon.
Quebec’s net debt for 2012/13 was sitting at $175.5 billion dollars throw in the fact that since 1957,Quebec has received a quarter of a trillion in transfer payments and has never contributed one dime to equalization. I would say there is nothing free about anything in that province.
And the fact that the energy provinces B.C.,Alberta, Sask,Newfoundland/Labrador are being wacked with falling oil prices perhaps the billions that we send to that province will be cut back cause the goose that lays the money egg is getting it’s throat cut.
@193:
When you die, your money won’t remember you or cry for you.
What a curious statement. As if anything matters to the deceased.
There is never a good time to have children, but there is definitely a time when it will be too late. Financial considerations need to be weighed against biological ones. You don’t get a redo at life.
#193 Let me put it this way. When you are old, your money wont appreciate your hard work and dedication. When you are sick, your money wont sit beside your hospital bed. When you die, your money won’t remember you or cry for you……………………….. Not so sure about that.. I talked to my son a couple of weeks ago and told him to go down to the homeless shelter and find 50 people to cry at my funeral .. The pay will be 50 dollars per hour.. A Win Win to be sure..
Don’t save embryos to have kids later. If you know you want to have kids you should start trying right away. $100/3 month supply of ovulation medicine if required is way cheaper than $12k to save embryos plus another ~$12k per IVF session.