Bottle it

TRAP modified

One of the major banks closes branches and says 1,500 people will be punted. The country’s largest engineering firm says it’s shedding 4,000. The latest jobs numbers (Friday morning) showed a gain half the size of the previous month, with a dip in the jobless rate.

As you know, oil has crashed. Gold, too. And the dollar. It’s tough to be seen as a resource economy when rocks and crude are going down. But if we could bottle Eau de Moist Virgin, or sell barrels of Grade A House Hormones, we’d be golden. In fact, now that real estate values are falling in every major city in China, with Europe in a funk and US home ownership in disrepute, I think we’d corner the global market in realtor go-juice.

But, clearly, some chinks are showing up in our production of the stuff. In fact, it’s a fair bet that – given our recent economic news (and despite the obvious US recovery) – 2015 may not be such a hot year to be a GTA condo-flipper, or the proud owner of a particle board palace in one of Cowtown’s grand burbs.

Say, did you catch the blog comment posted some hours ago by one of our pathetic readers who’s privy to the latest Toronto MLS data?

I get the daily sales feeds – more houses than not selling for less than list now especially in the detached realm. Even under 1 million, they are going for less. Bidding wars are all but gone if the daily feeds are correct. I see the correction already happening even without adjusted numbers.

This is exactly the buzz from agents on the ground, who have just gone through one mama of a tough fall selling season. Buyers have been demanding deals, refusing to play in bidding wars, and exhibiting a caution not actually seen since about 2009. Yes, sales numbers are still reasonable, although lower than three years ago. But prices are starting to erode – something you would not know reading the realtor’s media releases, or the crap published in the MSM.

Like this, form Thursday’s Financial Post:

Home prices continued to rise across the Greater Toronto Area in October, matching similar gains in Calgary and Vancouver which should continue to inflate national housing numbers due out later this month. The Toronto Real Estate Board said Wednesday the average sale price in the region in October was $587,505, an 8.9% increase from a year ago. While condominium prices have slowed, low rising housing prices continue to rise with the average detached home selling for $951,746 in October, an 8.7% increase from a year ago.

But the truth is home prices did not “continue to rise” in Canada’s largest market last month. The average home price in all of the GTA in October ($587,505) was less than it was back in May ($590,132). And, as I mentioned yesterday, when it comes to detached homes in the golden 416 zone, October’s number ($951,746) is lower than that of April ($965,670).

The Globe and Mail, by the way, called this “sizzling.” The editors should get out more.

It’s not just Toronto, either. Take Ottawa, where 1.3 million people live (more than Calgary), and which is considered recession-proof because of all those pensionable, job-secure civil servants running around. Oops. Even the real estate board says the region has just slipped into a buyer’s market.

There were over 1,100 sales last month, which is decent, but Ottawa now has seven times that number of active listings – that’s a fat 12.5% increase from this time last year. And prices have started to fall. The average ($369,540) is now off about twelve grand from last autumn and, as in Calgary, we’re seeing more action start to shift from SFHs to condos, just because they’re cheaper. This is never a good sign for the wider market.

In Halifax, a disaster. Sales are falling and prices are now down 4%. The average number of days it takes to nab a buyer has ballooned to 104. Says local realtor Jeremiah Wallace: “Looks like things continue to decline as we head towards the winter months, and winter market. The cool touch of fall has descended on our fair city, which coincides with the continued market temperature.”

On the prairies, ditto. In Regina there 200% as many houses for sale as there were two years ago – when the Saskatchewan-pumpers were all over this blog. In fact, there haven’t been this many desperate sellers for two decades. And here’s what the local board says about prices:

For October, the MLS® Home Price Index reported a composite residential price of $297,400 and index of 273.8 in the city. These are down 3.4% from last year’s levels of $307,800 and 283.4. This indicates that residential property values have actually declined in Regina over the past year.

Of course, until houses start selling for less on your street, you won’t believe any of this. But it may now be only a matter of time. And I’m not the only little drip saying such things. There’s Lawrence Schembri, deputy governor of the Bank of Canada who just published an article stating this about the real estate love juice now sautéing the economy:

“These post-crisis imbalances have accelerated a trend in which the government has become more exposed to the Canadian housing market via its guarantees on mortgage insurance mortgage securitization. This trend is not sustainable.”

You betcha, Larry. Once enough people start thinking (like they are in many cities already) that paying inflated prices to greedy house sellers, financed with dollops of debt, is a dumb move in an uncertain world. That’s why the feds are seriously thinking about offloading some of this risk to the banks. And some of them are worried.

By the way, did I mention the latest about bank jobs? One word. Harbinger.

162 comments ↓

#1 mortgagebrokeron on 11.06.14 at 7:32 pm

Yah, not too hot out there right now……. I think the crap is going to really hit the fan once the Ontario government starts raising taxes and cutting spending….

#2 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.06.14 at 7:36 pm

The beginning of the avalanche always starts quietly

#3 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.06.14 at 7:38 pm

I get the daily sold emails too (from Zoocasa). There are still bidding wars in a handful of areas (Lawrence Park, Leaside, etc.), especially for the sub-$1M price point. Basic 20-ft wide semi-detached places still get priced at $800k-$900k and sell well over list. Even some of the $1M+ homes seem to sell over list for some reason… which isn’t directly because of CMHC-backed mortgages, but I would guess is driven by move-up buyers who are selling their current homes to newbies with CMHC-backed money.

However, I agree that bidding wars have stopped in most of the GTA.

#4 lee bow on 11.06.14 at 7:40 pm

Now the question is, will the federal government have enough balls not to go Bernanke? This may turn into a panic quickly, with consequences for the ruling party. Will Stephen H accept that? Is Stephen P really that independent?

#5 Mister Obvious on 11.06.14 at 7:40 pm

What? Nary a word about Vancouver? I guess things are still hunky-dory in my berg.

#6 Millennial Falcon on 11.06.14 at 7:41 pm

Already a soft condo market in 604 surrounding ‘burbs.

#7 Ray Skunk on 11.06.14 at 7:41 pm

What you can get for $480k in Canada:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=14928316

What you can get for $480k in the UK:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2823315/Grade-II-listed-folly-complete-turret-market-268-000.html

Hmm.

The UK has:
-Twice the population of Canada in a landmass a fraction of the size
-Immigration – and lots of it
-Some HAM, but lots and lots of HArabM and HRussianM scooping up RE, much to the disdain of the locals
-An insatiable RE investment and buy-to-let culture

I guess we must be different here…

#8 fellow on 11.06.14 at 7:41 pm

DELETED

#9 -=jwk=- on 11.06.14 at 7:44 pm

Where we live it’s open house Saturday, bidding war Tuesday night, sold sign Wednesday. I’ve posted this rumination many times here before. I also don’t think prices will come down until CHMC stops giving away free money.

So, everything sells here. Except when it doesn’t. Nice backsplit went up late august. Set a new record 699k. We went to the open house. Nicely done inside, living/dining a little small but nice family room. Small yard. No garage or carport. Place two doors down went for 630 in a bidding war (list 599) and is bung on same lot so even smaller yard. Their first house by the way, they went from rental to 500k mortgage in one step. 1 grandparent, parents 9yr old and baby.

Anyway we get back from a month in China…expecting to meet our new neighbours. Still for sale. down to 679. Three open house weekends in a row. Now at 659. We look it again. It still looks nice. Apparently they had an offer but it fell through. What? When does that ever happen?

WTF is going on? This was a 72 hr sale 3 months ago. Now it’s been sitting for over 2 months? The other mcmansion that started at 1.088M is now down to 900 but that was overpriced to start.

Even my I-dont-fell-complete-until-we-own-again-even-though-we-pocketed-400k-from-selling-the-condo wife is puzzled.

This happened about a year ago to a semi – wanted 549 I think, came down to 509 and sold quickly. That took about 3 weeks to sell.

#10 Mark on 11.06.14 at 7:55 pm

“Now the question is, will the federal government have enough balls not to go Bernanke?”

Not sure what you mean by “Bernanke”, but it has been fairly obvious for the past few years, at least to me, that interest rates in Canada have been set far too high, and that a program of QE (ie: major interventionist policy) will undoubtedly be required.

Yes, the Canadian dollar has weakened as of late, but that’s just a temporary occurrence, and as deflation continues to pick up steam, it will be incredibly difficult for the Bank of Canada to keep the dollar down. In other words, exporters in Canada are most likely toast unless their product is particularly unique. The lack of investment in export related industries, as recently lamented by BoC Governor Poloz, is due to anticipation of a much stronger CAD$ soon, and Canada’s relative lack of competitiveness in manufacturing. Especially with that neighbour to our south in the process of gearing up to devalue the USD$ and revive their own industry to pay back the accumulated debt.

#11 Mark on 11.06.14 at 7:58 pm

“The beginning of the avalanche always starts quietly”

And started it did. Last year, in the 2nd and 3rd quarter.

#12 waiting on the westcoast on 11.06.14 at 8:00 pm

Oh no…. Now I will be tormented trying to anticipate the bottom… ;-)

#13 TEMPORARY® Foreign Prime Minister on 11.06.14 at 8:03 pm

“……And the latest jobs numbers (expected Friday morning) are expected to show a net loss across the country……..”
=========================

With a fixed-date federal election but a year away, The-Man-Who-Hides-in-Closets must be choking on his noodles right now, watching his one-trick house of cards about to collapse under the weight of too many self-serving lobbyists.

Then again, a fixed election date can always be postponed to a more self-serving date in order to ‘protect the fragile economy’.

#14 Mike in the Okanagan on 11.06.14 at 8:05 pm

Harbinger…perhaps. Predicting the future is a mug’s game. If you predict doom for enough years eventually you are right. The tricky bit is the length of time between a prediction and when it actually happens.

We could have easily said the Canadian RE market was over valued 2 years ago and you would have missed out on 2 years worth of growth (admittedly if you don’t cash out now it might never materialize).

What I do respect about your blog is you say don’t take on a ton of debt and invest in a balanced portfolio. Good advice regardless of what the future brings.

#15 Brian Ripley on 11.06.14 at 8:10 pm

I have the charts for Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary updated with OCT data now:

http://www.chpc.biz/

Toronto sales are strong and average prices for SFDs & Town Houses hit new record highs. Condos down ticked.

All 3 segments in Vancouver up ticked.

And Calgary is off the boil along with the energy patch.

#16 Carmen on 11.06.14 at 8:11 pm

GTA is still very hot. I’m in the market for a SFH between $2 – $2.5 million, and everything there is very hot.

I too get daily feeds, and I don’t see any slowdown whatsoever.

25 foot tear downs in the Cricket Club are going for $1.4 million now. It was $1.2 million last year.

Forest Hill and Rosedale are still blazing too. Several sales over the last week over $4 million.

Richmond Hill and Markham are going gangbusters too.

The only places in the GTA that I see are soft are Oakville and Vaughan. Everything else is hot.

#17 SWL1976 on 11.06.14 at 8:11 pm

Bank of Canada who just published an article stating this about the real estate love juice now sautéing the economy:

Now that Garth is straight up classic material.

What will Stephen and Stephen do?

Get some popcorn the show is just getting started, a true tale of tomfoolery, and to everyone who won a bidding war in 2014…

SURPRISE!!! You’ve been had

#18 West Coast on 11.06.14 at 8:13 pm

http://youngandthrifty.ca/understanding-home-equity-actually-works/

“If I have to listen to one more Canadian tell me that their home is, “The best investment I ever made,” I may lose my mi… well, let’s not be hyperbolic – I’ll probably just continue to internally shake my head at this statement.”

The above makes good reading for the young and thrifty (and others) seeking the voice of sanity in a real-estate crazed era.

#19 souvereigninternational on 11.06.14 at 8:16 pm

Better turn down the heat if it sizzles too long it is going to burn, burn ,burn

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49bLv7HY_K0

#20 Ole Doberman on 11.06.14 at 8:28 pm

Gatho – you’ve made an awesome case against RE for 8 years.

Does anyone recall in the moment how the last 2 housing busts started in the 80′ and 90’s?

It’s been so long few remember how it felt – please share.

#21 Mortgage Man on 11.06.14 at 8:34 pm

Weak job growth, low commodity prices and soft sales outside the big 3
Is the reason why interest rates will remain low.

I said this years ago… This is strictly an employment play. When interest rates rise the banks will
Further discount the over night rate .

It’s a vicious cycle – when RE slows down
So does banks profits thus more layoffs will be needed
To exceed last years profits.

#22 Mortgage Man on 11.06.14 at 8:38 pm

More people are renting out their basement
To afford their monthly

Remember the semi that sold on Ellsworth…
They recently had to rent out their basement.

#23 North Burnaby on 11.06.14 at 8:40 pm

For third-world immigrants to Canada, even working at minimum wage jobs is like getting a fortune

#24 Hurtin' Albertan on 11.06.14 at 8:44 pm

TFSA hero makes the news:

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/11/06/tfsa-canada-strategy/

#25 Sasha on 11.06.14 at 8:47 pm

I earn 77 cents for every male dollar earned in Canada. I’m not complaining. My enjoy my job as a high school teacher in the TDSB. Some people make poor career choices or enter college to leer at women and end up with a poor grade to graduate.

Canada has a strong economy thanks to PM Stephen Harper, and for those who wish to move to the USA, you can join their economic collapse and live on the food stamps.

Canada is for the hardworking and ambitious.

#26 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.06.14 at 8:48 pm

. . . . . . .Price Increase/Decrease. . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . Since June 2008 . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+12%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x . . .
+10%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+8%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+6%. . . . . . . . . . . *. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+4%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+2%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..0%. . . . x*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 2%. . . . . . . . . . . x. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 4%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 6%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. . .
———————————————————————-
. . . . . . .June . . . .June. . . . . . . . . Sept
. . . . . . .2008. . . .2010 . . . . . . . . .2014

Victoria = *
Calgary = x

(source: Brookfield’s index)
(link)

From June 2008 to September 2014, house prices in Calgary increased by 12% while prices in Victoria fell 6%.

Over the same period of time, prices in Hamilton shot higher by 40%, Winnipeg (+35%) and Toronto (+46%). Clearly Victoria’s housing market is the weakest in Canada.

Brookfield’s September index data also indicates that prices in Victoria were down:
* year-over-year
* month-over-month
* year-to-date (since the end of 2013)

If rock-bottom rates can’t stop Victoria’s price decline, what will? The answer to that question is much lower prices.

Weak sales continue to pull prices down in Victoria, despite historically low (emergency) interest rates. At the current rate, total single family home sales in Victoria (for 2014) will be well below Victoria’s long-term average. This has been the case since 2010.

If rock-bottom rates can’t push SFH sales in Victoria back to near-normal levels, what will? Again, the answer is much lower prices.

Psychology plays an important role in the inflation and deflation of housing bubbles (see chart). As housing bubbles inflate, greed becomes the dominant emotion and panic buying helps push prices higher. As bubbles deflate and fear kicks in, panic selling helps push prices lower.

In Victoria, there probably isn’t much panic selling at this point. However, it would be difficult to argue that Victoria’s housing bubble will deflate without panic selling, considering all of the panic buying that took place as prices shot higher from 2000 to 2010 due to lax lending standards.

Panic selling accelerates the rate of price decline as sellers engage in a fierce price-cutting competition. At this point, many hold-out sellers (who had previously removed their listings) lose all hope that the market will improve and enter the fierce price-cutting competition to dump their properties as quickly as possible to minimize losses. Fear-driven selling quickly pushes prices down. Victoria hasn’t gone through this stage yet.

After housing bubbles deflate, households are generally reluctant to buy homes. In the US, “about 20 million households (are) able to purchase a home, but choose not to.” As well, “only 13% view home ownership as their ultimate financial goal.”

Girls and guys, it isn’t different in Victoria. It isn’t different in Canada. Emotions will play a big role in pushing prices down. Buying a house now in Victoria would prove to be an extremely costly financial mistake that would haunt you for many years. After 8 years, prices in the US are still far below peak levels reached in 2006 and millions of American families continue to face extreme financial difficulties as a result of buying near the peak of the US bubble. Don’t make the same mistake.

Renting for now is a no-brainer. Wait for lower prices.

Until next time – Cheers!

#27 Koshy Alex on 11.06.14 at 8:56 pm

The $9 Billion Witness: Meet JPMorgan Chase’s Worst Nightmare

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-9-billion-witness-20141106

#28 seeing it from both sides on 11.06.14 at 8:57 pm

An acquaintance ( landed immigrant from HK) just bought a second condo in downtown Van. She is adamant HK and Chinese buyers are flooding into Van market to beat the new CRA reporting rules in Jan 2015 (all incoming transfers over $10,000 must be reported to CRA) ….”and that’s why the RE prices will not go down” . Apparently she’s using proceeds from the sale of her HK rental property, (and apparently, rental income which her accountant never reported as worldwide income in the last few years, and apparently, the box for foreign assets over 100k was never checked. Hence, she is ‘low income’, with ‘low income’ benefits ). I think she disclosed more than she should have….??
What happens if CRA finds out?

#29 Chris L. on 11.06.14 at 8:57 pm

Of any hint of a sign of the market crumbling…maybe this is finally the one. Sheesh, it’s not like we haven’t lived through like a million hints. I think you got way too burned in the last RE downturn that you can’t see the forest for the trees. Will you close the blog down when you finally get it right?

#30 nonplused on 11.06.14 at 9:00 pm

Can we go back to talking about basement dwellers and Steve’s plan to get them all unpaid jobs that displace other paid workers with his brilliant strategy of working for nothing?

I noticed the CBC comments section just ate him alive. I don’t know if he recovers from this. In fact, it was so bad Zero Hedge got on the case.

My daughter has done some “free” internship helping with a research project, and I was supportive, but when she actually works she gets paid even if it’s just taking kids river rafting. this stuff about free work is bullshit. If it has economic value it should be compensated and if there is no economic value the kids may as well play Minecraft.

Apparently the “no jobs for kids” thing isn’t just Canadian. It’s killing Europe and Japan too. Partly globalisation, partly tax policy, partly automation and technology, partly probably overpopulation, it’s all coming home to roost. I don’t know what the solution is but I do know if anybody should be working for free, it’s Steve. Actually both Steves. Harper hasn’t been helping much either.

I have a new idea. Let’s can the CPP and OAS and use the money to put the kids to work building bike paths and planting trees, or maybe setting up roof top solar. That way the kids have jobs and the lousy loafers at the top of the pyramid scheme can collect bottles.

#31 Nemesis on 11.06.14 at 9:01 pm

#BankJobsGoFaster… #WithThermicLances… #Or,SomePeopleNeverGrowUp

http://youtu.be/aMwqijj857s

#32 not 1st on 11.06.14 at 9:06 pm

SNC and CIBC employees, consider a blue collar job in a local warehouse. Very safe lifelong employment;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gy5tYVR-28

#33 notagreaterfool on 11.06.14 at 9:08 pm

Relative to historic values, the how does the dip in the 416 detached home price of April through October compare? Is the drop insignificant and normal or atypical and excessive?

The point at hand is the untruthiness of the real estate board and the incompetence of the media. — Garth

#34 dogman01 on 11.06.14 at 9:13 pm

Mark on 11.06.14 at 7:55 pm

Yes, the Canadian dollar has weakened as of late, but that’s just a temporary occurrence, and as deflation continues to pick up steam

Mark …you seem smart. Why would $C will rise relative to US. Did I miss a theory in a past post?

#35 Mark on 11.06.14 at 9:23 pm

http://www.leaderpost.com/news/calgary/renovation+star+goes+bankrupt+leaves+Calgary+homeowners+stuck/10356944/story.html

“Becki and Steve Mravunac paid a contractor nearly $300,000 for a home renovation that hasn’t been started — and may not ever be, considering the builder declared bankruptcy two weeks ago.

As bad as that is, the Mravunacs consider themselves relatively lucky because their home is at least still intact. Other customers of The Remodelers are unable to live in homes left unfinished when a bankruptcy trustee took control of the company and its assets.

So far, 15 homeowners have filed complaints with Service Alberta, alleging they paid a total of $3 million to contractor Bruce Hopkins, who owned The Remodelers and starred in his own home renovation TV show for several years.

Expect a lot, lot more of this in the future.

#36 notagreaterfool on 11.06.14 at 9:24 pm

Re: 33

Agreed Garth. No news there. Ross Kay made a stink on this subject. Nothing came of it.

#37 Terrier on 11.06.14 at 9:26 pm

It’s all downhill from here …

#38 Detalumis on 11.06.14 at 9:27 pm

#25 Sasha give your head a shake, do you earn 77 cents compared to male teachers, yes or no. Can you become a department head or principal or is that reserved for men, yes or no. With pension and health benefits a teacher is compensated at over 100K. The median earned income in this country is 30K including men and including the parents of your students, so you are over 3 times that.

I would suggest nobody is allowed to be a full-time teacher until they have worked in the private sector fo 5 years, that way they would stop complaining about their lot in life.

#39 Lucas on 11.06.14 at 9:28 pm

“In fact, now that real estate values are falling in every major city in China”

Source?

Bloomberg. — Garth

#40 bdy sktrn on 11.06.14 at 9:31 pm

It’s not just Toronto, either….
Take Ottawa…
In Halifax, a disaster…
On the prairies, ditto….

———————–
yeah van got left out.
i had to spend a couple hours at ubc today – very ,very busy, almost as many construction guys as students. building everywhere.

drove across the city to get there, seems every second skytrain undergoing major expansion, towers shootong upward, infills abound from the 10mil endowment land lots to crazy noisy lots on arterials. go go go baby. there is still a billion or two who know about the magic of vancouver.
and maybe it was just luck but maybe it had to with enviro-extremists, but the drive was truly a joy, at about 10;30 am 4th ave was an empty recetrack all the way clear across town. if this ‘green’ movement can empth the roads like that than I’m all for it.

#41 lee bow on 11.06.14 at 9:38 pm

Mark, that’s a good question – what “going Bernanke” means.

Suppressing volatility at any cost may be a dangerous proposition. Sometimes somebody needs to lose something.

I just don’t observe any “far too high” bond yields. I wonder what pension managers and insurers think about that.

As Janet Y pointed out in her recent speech, the whole program they executed since the GFC lead to even more disparity.

#42 Leo Tolstoy on 11.06.14 at 9:40 pm

Gold and gold miners are trash.

Oil is done.

The Canadian dollar will go lower.

And Boomers are paying for their kid’s real estate.

http://www.torontolife.com/informer/features/2014/11/04/the-bank-of-mom-and-dad/?page=all

Get used to it.

#43 Vangrrl on 11.06.14 at 9:47 pm

#40: Damn right, I had an awesome bike commute to work this morning, except at 9am traffic was bumper to bumper and I sailed past the cars :).
Vote Gregor Robertson again!

#44 cynically on 11.06.14 at 9:47 pm

Sasha @ #23 – You really are a comedian but you forgot your punchline. However in case there isn’t one I won’t comment further.

#45 Nomad on 11.06.14 at 9:51 pm

Garth, LesAffaires has a worthwhile read. Unfortunately it’s in french and little people will know. Sounds like defaults are increasing quick in Montreal and certain other Quebec cities:

There’s a 14% increase in lenders giving notice to borrowers that they will cancel the mortgage. Maybe I don’t say it right, here’s the link:

http://www.lesaffaires.com/secteurs-d-activite/immobilier/immobilier-les-preavis-dexercice-a-un-sommet-de-3-ans/573694

#46 Mortgage Man on 11.06.14 at 9:55 pm

I agree some markets are hot
And when you are talking about homes
Greater one million is hard to say that it’s because
Carrying cost are cheap

However I will say that homes prices in the 1.5 million
Are cheaper per sq foot than than the 1.1million

#47 Kenchie on 11.06.14 at 10:01 pm

#60 Mark on 11.06.14 at 12:26 am

“Pharmacy is a 4-year degree.”

Wrong. It’s 4 years of pharmacy school AFTER a minimum of two years in an undergrad program. So 6 years minimum in school.

#48 omg the original on 11.06.14 at 10:04 pm

NO MAJOR CORRECTION IN PRICES UNTIL RATES RISE IN A MEANINGFUL WAY

House prices are sticky on the upside, they ratted up quickly but have a real tough time coming down.

Until people are forced to sell their houses because they cannot afford them (because rates have risen substantially) prices will not come down.

So sit back and watch what happens when rates begin to rise.

#49 Fuzzy Camel on 11.06.14 at 10:08 pm

Sasha, TDSB is unionized, so there is no pay inequality based on gender. That practice is illegal, I haven’t seen it happen once in my career. Feminist propaganda.

As a government teacher, you are greatly overpaid vs private teachers. Care to compare that?

If you think the US collapse won’t hurt Canada, you’ve been in your cushy teaching job too long. I don’t much respect for people like you. You’ve never worked a real job, go try being a plumber, electrician, or someone that produces value for society. Teachers are the most entitled, lazy people I have ever met.

#50 Mark on 11.06.14 at 10:17 pm

“Gold and gold miners are trash.”

Actually if you go look at what happened in the 1930s, the price of industrial commodities collapsed, but gold and gold miners went up. Gold due to the official devaluation. The miners heavily on the strength of dramatically lower input costs.

What are the two largest inputs to gold mining? Energy and labour. And as you point out, they’re going down quite a bit. Additionally, a good portion of the world’s gold and silver production is in the form of ‘co-products’. Co-products are minerals that naturally occur alongside other minerals, such as tiny amounts of gold in copper deposits. If the copper price collapses and copper isn’t economic to mine, gold, by definition, doesn’t get mined either, and supply is constrained.

“Wrong. It’s 4 years of pharmacy school AFTER a minimum of two years in an undergrad program. So 6 years minimum in school.”

Only the most recent pharmacists are subjected to the two year requirement. Most older pharmacists just have a standard 4-year degree. The extra years required nowadays are just a sort of ‘fence’ to keep the application flow into the schools manageable.

NO MAJOR CORRECTION IN PRICES UNTIL RATES RISE IN A MEANINGFUL WAY

Rates haven’t risen (they’ve actually fallen), yet house prices are falling. House prices have fallen in a low rate environment in Japan for decades now. Once demand has been fully satiated, prices always fall. Eventually falling prices have an impact on the perceived credit-worthiness of the borrowers and of the asset class, and rates additionally rise through that mechanism independent of central bank policy action (which is likely to remain very accommodative for a long time to come — see Poloz’s recent comments concerning poor capacity utilization in the Canadian economy).

#51 rocks on 11.06.14 at 10:18 pm

The longer it takes to correct, the more it is going to hurt when it eventually does.

#52 LP on 11.06.14 at 10:19 pm

#8 fellow on 11.06.14 at 7:41 pm
But, clearly, some chinks are showing up in our production of the stuff. In fact, it’s a fair bet that – given our recent economic news (and despite the obvious US recovery) – 2015 may not be such a hot year to be a GTA condo-flipper, or the proud owner of a particle board palace in one of Cowtown’s grand burbs.

********************************************

Agreed…there sire sees to be a lot of chinks out there mmkay.
********************************

I hate that I know what that word is shortform for but not as much as the fact that it still is used at all by people like you. Why don’t you grow all the way up and stop with the bigotry?

#53 Ask Me For My Name One More Time And I Swear To God on 11.06.14 at 10:22 pm

The house beside mine in West Van has changed hands three times in the last year and each time for less. Assuming it’s not just my party’s chasing people away, there is most definitely a downward pressure on prices.

#54 Terry on 11.06.14 at 10:22 pm

High-rise apartment style Condo’s in London are also dropping in price. The average 3 bedroom 2 bathroom unit is down roughly 10% to 15% in value since the spring of this year. A slow steady decline in prices with more people listing their properties is what I’m seeing here.

#55 Mark on 11.06.14 at 10:26 pm

http://www.lesaffaires.com/secteurs-d-activite/immobilier/immobilier-les-preavis-dexercice-a-un-sommet-de-3-ans/573694

Merci beaucoup Nomad. Since nobody rationally gets involuntarily gets foreclosed upon if they still have equity, it can be assumed that those houses are in negative equity. Hence, it is likely that the CMHC (or some hapless Quebec Caisse Populaire with typically awful risk management practices) is going to be on the hook for some significant equity deficiency.

Just a sign of what’s to come for the rest of the country, that’s for sure.

#56 Cato the Elder on 11.06.14 at 10:40 pm

If prices fall, that is a good thing. The market is signalling that they need to fall before people will purchase again.

A recession in which governments reduce spending and taxes and simply GET OUT OF THE WAY will be over quickly, albeit unavoidably painfully.

A recession in which governments intervene, go into debt, try to prop up falling asset prices, bail out failures, and increase taxes will lead to severe PROLONGED PAIN.

Recessions are the predictable consequence of a distortion of resource allocation. Sad thing is, the moment the ‘boom’ happens, a recession is already guaranteed. They are like a drug addict going through withdrawal. Should they continue to take drugs, and allow their situation to get worse? Or go through short term pain, and get better in the long run?

It is WELL DOCUMENTED that the great depression would never have been ‘great’ if they had followed these policies. Instead, FDR, the great interventionist, plowed down fields (while people were going hungry) to try to ‘stimulate’ prices.

These kind of idiotic keynsian policies have lead to so much human suffering in the past century.

Time to treat these people the way they should be treated: as criminals. Get out of the way. Let entrepreneurs do their thing – which is something most politicians don’t have the gall to do.

************

About the banks – funny thing is, all those jobs are front line, service jobs. The kind that the middle class use to increase the quality of their experience. Who cares about them, right?

Of course, the real money makers, the investment bankers at primary dealers (the guys that get to buy government bonds – with made up money!), will continue to enrich themselves like never before. That’s because they’re all gathered around the money tap where it’s created – the central bank.

We will all be poorer as a result.

Canadians are pretty passive, even when an issue enrages them. I truly believe if they understood our monetary system, even they would rise up in a revolution. There is no more evil force, no more sinister ploy, than the system that undermines our society through the slow theft of all our hard earned money and wealth through inflation.

#57 Cato the Elder on 11.06.14 at 10:47 pm

Re: #42 Leo Tolstoy

Are you sure about that? I will bet you several things will occur by the year 2030:

1. China will be dictating our public policies. Via proxy, of course – wouldn’t want to alarm anyone.

2. US dollar reserve system will be gone or in shambles. Their country will be in severe civil strife as over 50 million people once dependent on government are forced to scramble for scraps

3. China will continue to have most of the worlds gold. It’s price will be at a significant multiple higher than today.

4. All of the above may be insignificant, if the US chooses to engage militarily rather than concede their dollar system has failed. We may have a nuclear war on our hands.

If you don’t understand what I’ve said above, you need to do some more in depth reading. Quit watching the media on television. You aren’t going to get the details of what’s happening behind the scenes. What’s happening is the US dollar system is being undermined. This system is based on the US forcing countries to use it’s currency to buy oil. When a country tries to use something other than US dollars, it gets invaded (Libya, Iraq, etc.). Only thing is, now China and Russia are fighting back – and they have sizable armies and a nuclear arsenal. Why do you think we’re in Ukraine? Because Russia’s ‘bad’? Last I checked, there were many worse people in the world, and we haven’t done jack there.

#58 Fleabitten Monkey on 11.06.14 at 11:08 pm

I’ve just read a recommendation by BCs CPAs regarding housing costs. They state BC should monitor results of a mitigation strategy implemented in Hong Kong of late. This strategy is called a Stamp Tax meant for foreign buyers purchasing property other than for their primary residence. They advise BC to monitor it and if it has a positive effect on housing price reduction, then to introduce a similar policy.

#59 Fred on 11.06.14 at 11:11 pm

#57 Cato
Any more of that Cool Aid left?

#60 JSS on 11.06.14 at 11:20 pm

Are Canadian bank stocks in trouble?

mark? anyone?

#61 Van Isle Renter on 11.06.14 at 11:25 pm

#20 Ole Doberman on 11.06.14 at 8:28 pm
Gatho – you’ve made an awesome case against RE for 8 years.

Does anyone recall in the moment how the last 2 housing busts started in the 80′ and 90’s?

It’s been so long few remember how it felt – please share.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The Alberta RE crash started in 1981. Something about the National Energy Program. You know, Justin Trudeau’s dads Big New Idea. I hear Justin has a few Big New Ideas too. With any luck we won’t have to find out.

It ended in around 2000. Between 1981 and 2001 houses were just houses, not jewelry…… ahhh… the good old days….

#62 Prairieboy43 on 11.06.14 at 11:31 pm

#57, Cato I agree with your analysis, particularly #4. Southern states (confederates), are a warring faction. From slavery to civil war, to murdering there way out West after the civil war. That is why there is a large divide in America today.
Everyone has a some blue and red in them. However the ratio in blue/red is extreme red in some cases. We may have a nuclear war, unless cooler heads prevail.

#63 Kenchie on 11.06.14 at 11:34 pm

#133 RealistvsExtremist on 11.06.14 at 3:21 pm

“So you choose “one thing” bloomberg does politically and call him a hero?”

A) I didn’t call him a “hero”. B) It’s silly to judge politicians on one-liners. Clearly, it’s not a serious policy issue. C) Fingerprinting wasn’t forced upon the populace, as per a fascist government would have likely done. So it’s hyperbolic to call him a fascist. D) Cato has previously mentioned his desire that local governments have more power than the central government. Bloomberg is promoting state and municipal governments to lead the way, regardless of what happens in Washington. So, I thought Cato may agree with him on this point. E) Bloomberg was around for a long time, yet his approval ratings never truly plunged in the way most multiple term politicians have.

This is from 2010 (after 8 years of being in office):
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/bloomberg-approval-rating-over-time.jpg
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/413-bloomberg-viewed-as-best-nyc-mayor-in-recent-history-%E2%80%A6-approval-rating-at-56/

PS: one can call any politician an “elitist totalitarian” by looking at policy from a ridiculously left-wing bias. Such as hating on “chartered schools” because they take away the power of school boards.

#64 Realties.ca » Bottle it on 11.06.14 at 11:43 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2014/11/06/bottle-it/ […]

#65 RealistvsExtremist on 11.06.14 at 11:44 pm

I’m to understand this site is trolled by hoards of govt employees. So. Where is our $0.99 gas with oil under 80 bucks? Its $0.75 Cdn in the US. Are taxes on Canadians where said oil comes from by the way that high? Because it that is true we are getting a really bad deal if you look at what its supposed to pay for.

#66 Kenchie on 11.07.14 at 12:04 am

#140 pitfield on 11.06.14 at 6:56 pm
#55 Retired Boomer – WI on 11.05.14 at 11:57 pm
#45 Kenchie
===============================
“You sound very smart so you know if wealth is spread equally throughout the world we would all be poor.”

Hypothetically-speaking, let’s assume you mean “equally throughout Canada”, because “we” can’t comprehend how poor the majority of the world is. (I’ve been to some of the poorest nations on Earth, so I have a fair idea: Laos > Cambodia > Tanzania). I reckon that if, hypothetically-speaking, all the wealth was equally redistributed across Canada by some ungodly magic (assuming private property rights and technology levels are intact) that within 5 years, inequality would be back to where we are today.

My rationale is that 10%-15% of people will save lots and invest, 20%-25% of people will spend within their means but not invest much (GICs for these people), 40%-50% of people will spend everything they have but not go into much debt, and 15%-25% will go into debt because they live beyond their means. The ones who don’t know how to manage their windfall gift would squander the capital and be back to where they were. Classic example of this are the big lottery winners that end up poorer in the end.
===============================
“Competition is only worth it when everyone is on equal footing but it’s never been nor will it ever be.
THOSE WHO HAVE THE POWER MAKE THE RULES”

Yup. That’s why “we” have to look out for ourselves first and foremost. Or, in the first-person POV, “I” have to look out for “myself”.

#67 Spike on 11.07.14 at 12:04 am

#50 Mark. “The extra years required nowadays are just a sort of ‘fence’ to keep the application flow into the schools manageable”.
Mark I would also suggest it is to keep schools flush with cash by keeping students in longer…many programs that were once 2 year diplomas are now “degrees” such as nursing, dental hygienists, radiation therapists. Soon realtors…

#68 Montelli on 11.07.14 at 12:04 am

I get daily mls sold stats for GTA and can confidently say that some people on this blog are full of crap..

typical sold price nowadays is in the range of 92%-98% of ask price with a one-offs in the 85% or 120% range with latter being due to douchy realtors pricing houses for much less than any recently sold house (remember Garth’s posts on Glencairn)

this, blog dogs, is the new reality, it is also very different from the fall ’13 and spring/summer ’14 periods where typical sold was always at or over 100% of asking. And I am talking SFH only.

So kiss Garth and hold on to your nards boyos for we are going downhill from here.

#69 Mark on 11.07.14 at 12:07 am

“Are Canadian bank stocks in trouble?

mark? anyone?

Asset deflation tends to be very positive for investors in fixed income assets, especially government bonds or government bond equivalents. The banks are Canada’s largest holders of such, by way of their holdings of GoC-backed CMHC insured subprime mortgages.

Big risk in the big banks in Canada is political risk. What might a “orange” or “red” government, faced with a big CMHC bail-out bill, do to the banks? For instance, (then) Finance Minister Paul Martin banned bank mergers in the 1990s, with significant short-term consequences to bank share prices. Since most of the backers of a potential “orange” government absolutely hate the banks, well, let your imagination run wild….

#70 Kenchie on 11.07.14 at 12:11 am

#147 Renter on 11.06.14 at 11:19 pm
“Why not let a landlord subsidize you, instead of subsidizing Atrina and the bank?”

“’cause at some point the landlord will wake up and raise your rent to make this deal profitable for him or her.
That’s why.”
=========================
Easier said than done when there are so many completions of competing product. In Toronto, it is estimated that there will be 20,000 condo completions in 2014! (10-year average is just over 15,000).

Desperate landlords who are just receiving them now might have to advertise lower rents than initially planned in order to get someone to sign for the first year in order to avoid one or two months (or longer) without any cash flow. And attempting to raise rent meaningfully thereafter isn’t easy for highly leveraged amateur landlords because they likely won’t want to risk the tenant vacating.

#71 Mark on 11.07.14 at 12:11 am

“This strategy is called a Stamp Tax meant for foreign buyers purchasing property other than for their primary residence.”

If Canada starts engaging in such policy, to fight a problem which really doesn’t exist, then we can expect foreign nations to respond with such reciprocal measures.

I don’t think Canadians would take very kindly to an incremental tax being placed on their purchases of property in Arizona or Florida.

Besides, if foreign money were to start appearing in the Canadian RE marketplace, this would be a very positive development towards moving Canadian RE prices away from being entirely based on excess leverage and subprime credit.

#72 SWL1976 on 11.07.14 at 12:26 am

#50 Mark

Thanks for telling it like it is. I don’t know where you find the time, but I do find your posts informative

#73 Cato the Elder on 11.07.14 at 12:28 am

Re: #59 Fred

Spoken like someone who has been effectively schooled.

Very few people fully understand the extent to which China has taken over the world.

By even the least flattering statistics, China is the biggest economy in the world already.

As China’s currency continues to strengthen, especially when it reflects the amount of gold they have, it’s dominance will become truly apparent.

If it’s currency truly reflected it’s role in the world as the manufacturer of virtually everything for the west, it would be 3-5 times the size it is now. It’s middle class would instantly become wealthier than anyone in Canada or the US. They could start buying their own things, and all the world’s resources would flow to them as cheap imports.

Just as proof that number 1 is happening (China will control Canada), here is legislation that has already been passed. And it’s just like I said, it will be done via proxy, in secret, and to maintain the illusion that we still have control:

http://www.vancouverobserver.com/news/harper-oks-potentially-unconstitutional-china-canada-fipa-deal-coming-force-october-1

You lack of critical thinking faculties if you aren’t concerned about the developments our nation are facing.

#74 Cato the Elder on 11.07.14 at 12:33 am

Re: #69 Mark

I wouldn’t be so sure.

The banks own this country. Politicians will support them if they know what’s good for them.

Banks are the largest political contributors to all parties.

We effectively have 4 socialist parties in Canada, that differ slightly by how they want to divy up the loot.

Because socialism requires a never ending supply of money, and because taxation is limited, they rely on the central bank to print the shorfall.

We all suffer as prices rise due to our dollars losing value. But the big government parties all support the banks, because the banks support them.

It is a disgustingly symbiotic relationship, in which the average person loses, and the ruling classes win.

#75 DMD on 11.07.14 at 12:37 am

July 21, 2014

Male, 53, in BC, using BC Assessment values…

Professional corporation:
1,213,000 stocks
(193,000 investment loan, interest only)
457,000 condo (no mortgage)
250,000 cash

Personal:
691,000 principal residence (no mortgage)
511,000 vacant residential lot
(127,000 mortgage for residential lot)
546,000 RRSP
52,000 TFSA
162,000 non-registered stock investment
(82,000 non-registered investment loan, interest only)
10,100 cash
10,000 vehicles ( 2002 pick up, 1969 un-restored, 1955 un-restored)

Net worth pre-tax excluding vehicles: 3,490,100

Update: Nov 6, 2014
Professsional corporation:
1,385,000 stocks
(193,000 investment loan)
457,000 condo (mortgage free)
195,000 cash

Personal:
691,000 Principal residence (mortgage free)
511,000 vacant residential lot (123,000 mortgage)
580,000 RRSP
54,000 TFSA
163,000 non-registered stock investment
(82,000 non-reg investment loan)
9,000 cash
10,000 vechicles (2002 pickup, 1969 un-restored, 1955 un-restored)

Net worth pre-tax, excluding vehicles: 3,647,000

#76 SWL1976 on 11.07.14 at 12:45 am

#56 Cato the Elder

Canadians are pretty passive, even when an issue enrages them. I truly believe if they understood our monetary system, even they would rise up in a revolution

——————————————

Completely agree, but its not that big of a mystery for those who choose to educate themselves and figure it out. The big problem is that it is still working just good enough for many, many just don’t care, and then there are the concerned ones like myself who just have no idea what to do besides try my best to protect myself, my family and friends from the inevitable

#77 Cato the Elder on 11.07.14 at 12:48 am

Just to continue my ranting, as I mentioned many posts ago, we are going to miss our opportunity as a nation with our oil riches.

Oil based industry will not last forever. We must remember we are competing with places like Saudi Arabia, which have much more conventional oil that is cheaper to extract. Their capacity to ramp up production and drop prices is nearly unlimited.

Already, we are beginning to see the advent of cars that can realistically compete with fuel based cars (Tesla, etc.). What that means is, we have a TIMELINE IN PLACE FOLKS.

All those environmentalists that are hindering progress, are also the same people that complain about a lack of good paying jobs. I’m not advocating for widespread degradation, but a simple enforcement of property rights is all that is needed in this space. We don’t need complicated regulations. Property rights enforcement is the most effective NATURAL regulation we need.

We don’t have much more time to fully exploit these oil resources. I would say less than 20-30 years, if we’re lucky. However, given current rates of progress in the electronics space, and investments in battery technology, we could have less.

What a waste. We could dominate the globe in 10-20 years, if we only made the right moves.

#78 Vanecdotal on 11.07.14 at 1:00 am

#5 Mister Obvious
#6 Millennial Falcon

Soft would be an understatement. Developers starting to advertise steep discounts on new build condos in the local paper, at least south of the Fraser. First phases of many developments still looking for buyers 2-3 years post-completion. Stale jobsites abound from Surrey to Langley to Whiterock. They say the rot starts at the edges, well it’s been stinky out here for quite some time now. As for Van, I think what another poster pointed out about the rush to get money out of China before the new rules come into effect in January may be affecting certain Vancouver markets, keeping them artificially buoyant in the near-term.

#40 bdy sktrn

4th is empty during the day as there are far less people actually living/working/shopping/playing in the area. Lots of money parked in empty real estate in that neck of the woods. I watched the neighbourhood change first-hand while I lived there. It’s busy in rush hour as the students funnel in and out of UBC, (because many can’t afford to live anywhere near campus) but that’s about it. Most businesses on 4th and Broadway don’t make it past their first lease renewal. It’s like a resort town in the off season compared to what it once was. Kind of creepy to see this phenomenon in a “world class city” (not my words), but it’s here nonetheless. 2015 will be interesting, to be sure.

#79 Mike S on 11.07.14 at 1:09 am

“Then again, a fixed election date can always be postponed to a more self-serving date in order to ‘protect the fragile economy’.”

Probably isn’t going to happen sooner, as H knows it is his elections to loose (even without the economic headwinds)

#80 Mike S on 11.07.14 at 1:13 am

“Harbinger…perhaps. Predicting the future is a mug’s game. If you predict doom for enough years eventually you are right. The tricky bit is the length of time between a prediction and when it actually happens.”

as prices are already dropping in half of Canada. it should be enough to start optimizing the consumer loan departments

#81 Kenchie on 11.07.14 at 1:19 am

#73 Cato the Elder on 11.07.14 at 12:28 am

Lol. Your understanding of economic reality is piss-poor. China’s entirely dependent on foreign purchasers of their goods to sustain economic growth. They are entrapped by this unsustainable growth model that followed many other Asian nations that have had difficulties transitioning into a consumption-based economy (ahem, Japan).

As Europe, China’s largest export market, slows down and unemployment remains elevated, European manufacturers will continue to onshore their manufacturing plants closer to home in the peripheries and Eastern Europe, which has already started. These idiotic countries just need to fully reform their labour laws for this process to accelerate further.

While China’s rise is certainly impressive and somewhat threatening, they have far more problems than North America and a less flexible system of governance which will stifle their long-term growth. I wouldn’t be surprised if the communist party didn’t survive to 2025 (76 years vs 74 years of the USSR).

#82 Carousel on 11.07.14 at 1:20 am

Love the blog picture, I concur, growing up can be a challenge.

Getting to the bare facts, the housing prices here in BC are stagnet, and so out of reach to average worker. I know it sucks, but, it will adjust, greed and fear usually looses, and it really depends how urgently you want to go into a pitful hole of debt. 2015 will be an interesting year.

Cheers…

#83 Mike S on 11.07.14 at 1:35 am

“Yes, the Canadian dollar has weakened as of late, but that’s just a temporary occurrence, and as deflation continues to pick up steam, it will be incredibly difficult for the Bank of Canada to keep the dollar down”

Why during Iceland bubble burst their currency fell?

We are not Iceland but low oil doesn’t help either

#84 not 1st on 11.07.14 at 1:35 am

#73 Cato the Elder on 11.07.14 at 12:28 am

You must have inhaled too much Bejing smog. You are really misinfomed what china really is.

China will never reach economic dominance because of a lot of reasons not to mention;

– its staggering black market debt,
– construction fueled fake GDP
– demographics of its one child policy
– civil unrest boiling beneath the surface
– local level corruption of the highest magnitude
– peasant labour class who will never be consumers of anything
– impending technology that will render their cheap labour worthless and send many back to the country side.

#85 Tom from Mississauga on 11.07.14 at 1:40 am

Sold half my HR.UN on Scotia layoffs. That and they can’t find tenant for 69 Yonge, RBC moving from Front St to WaterPark. There’s the Bremner Tower coming, One York, Allied REIT at King and Spadina, Brookfield at Yonge and Adelaide, MaRs, Calloway REIT with VM Center. Is there a commercial real estate bubble? Do you do posts on that?

#86 mycomment on 11.07.14 at 1:41 am

My comment on many of these comments, uh huh. By all means though do not ever consume any main stream media. You should listen to Alex Jones on the radio, when he’s not on go to his website or look him up on you tube. Avoid sleep because you may miss some important information about UFOs. It is also highly advisable to have a dual screen monitor setup on your computer so you can watch Glen Beck at the same time as Alex Jones.

Good god Garth you have to stop worrying about real estate and investing and get the real scoop on what’s going on from Jessie Ventura and those mentioned above. This is the truly important stuff. Frankly I think you should quit your day job so you can devote the proper amount of attention to these truly pressing issues. Just ask some of your loyal commenters.
Oh and there is 22 trillion dollars in subprime motgages insured by CHMC in Mississauga alone and everyone of them is going to default by the end of the year. Source – Mark.

#87 Mike S on 11.07.14 at 1:48 am

“Are you sure about that? I will bet you several things will occur by the year 2030:

1. China will be dictating our public policies. Via proxy, of course – wouldn’t want to alarm anyone.

3. China will continue to have most of the worlds gold. It’s price will be at a significant multiple higher than today.

Look at Chinese demographic pyramid which is a result of their one child policy. in 2030 (long after their gigantic construction bubble bursts) there will be lots of old “boomers” without pensions

Don’t know about US (won’t bet against it) but China is not “it” for the next decades

#88 Mike S on 11.07.14 at 1:52 am

“Are Canadian bank stocks in trouble?

mark? anyone?”

No

#89 Steve on 11.07.14 at 1:56 am

Well said regarding the houses on your street being the canary. That’s what will finally convince people that they should change. Of course the opportunity for that will be long past. What a mess this will be. I work with an arrogant cock that standeth upon his soapbox everyday. He’s rich! (Yet still works with me) He plays stocks like Liberace played the creepy piano! (Yet he still works with me) He has hordes of precious metal and a plan! A huge in your face plan to retire! This of course has been grinding on for fifteen years at work. I’m totally sick of this man. The way he gets the fleece of course is by “selling the house!!” And gliding to freedom. Well, he’s greedy, arrogant, and is going to mistime his sale. And that my friends is when he will realize that he is dicked. When he looks up from his trough of plenty and realizes that every other retard has exactly the same plan and thinks they know the markets. It’s the shoe shine boy all over again. Mind you if it does work out for him it will be a grandiose fluke and he will miss a vital lesson in humility. If it goes bad and he gets hung with two property’s he can’t sell,,, well I guess I have another fifteen years under high ground listening to this dingbat. Oh lord let him win!

#90 observer01 on 11.07.14 at 2:05 am

#20 Ole Doberman on 11.06.14 at 8:28 pm

Gatho – you’ve made an awesome case against RE for 8 years.

Does anyone recall in the moment how the last 2 housing busts started in the 80′ and 90’s?

It’s been so long few remember how it felt – please share.
==============
In the previous crash people had money. Canadians had lots of savings. The economy wasn’t as global as it is now

This crash will be different because people are starting off being broke, living from paycheque to paycheque. Interest rates are at rock bottom and can’t go any lower.

Most people don’t have any skin in the game, 5% down, or less. Real estate was only a fraction of our industry, now its over 20% . Chance of default is high. This generation has no backbone, everything was given to them, it will be a rude awakening to wake up knowing your done and complete under water

#91 chapter 9 on 11.07.14 at 2:07 am

#59 Fred
China is about to create the biggest middle-class the world has ever seen. For us in Canada a move from mfg. to services requires less resources. For our neighbors to the south this shift to domestic consumption means China will be reducing buying up US debt. The Chinese have a plan!!

#92 observer01 on 11.07.14 at 2:12 am

The way I see this playing out is as follows

– The government is going to ask the banks to take responibility for some of the insurance in case things go south. But that will be for new contracts not existings

– So upon renew, guess what, No can do, your too risky or you have to pay higher interest rates forcing the riskier loans out. The government is going to use the BANKS as their “HAMMER” to clean the mess the government made, thereby washing their hands and looking like the good guys. The bank will do what banks are ment to do. Make money, reprocessing housing at pennies for the dollar!

#93 boomorbust on 11.07.14 at 2:15 am

RealistvsExtremist on 11.06.14 at 11:44 pm

“I’m to understand this site is trolled by hoards of govt employees. So. Where is our $0.99 gas with oil under 80 bucks? Its $0.75 Cdn in the US. Are taxes on Canadians where said oil comes from by the way that high? Because it that is true we are getting a really bad deal if you look at what its supposed to pay for.”

Under a $1.00 a litre? Remember all those signs and gas pumps that didn’t have enough digits for more than 99.9 a litre? Pump replacements, signage changes… Never again will gas prices again go below that 4 digit threshold. It’s already been paid for so no going back now.

#94 Leo Tolstoy on 11.07.14 at 4:36 am

I agree with Mark. Gold and gold miners are terrible investments right now. And will get worse. Anybody who has them in their portfolio is going to be poor.

Canadian real estate still going up in price across the board. The trend is your friend.

Lesson over. For now.

#95 Rexx Rock on 11.07.14 at 7:07 am

I was in China a couple of days ago and now in Boracay.Couldn’t access greaterfool or many websites.
Unbelieveable,took the fast train to Shanghai from Beijing and you see 10 or 12 30 storey buildings going up every where.Wait until you see HAM really take over in Canada.My guess the government of Canada will let in more rich Chinese by the millions into Canada secretly to continue the boom.Its gonna be wild for price increases in the next few years.
Met a guy from Norway and lives in paradise in Palawaan for 8 months a year and he says you can live quite good for under $1000 a month.I guess it won’t last the way our government devalues our currency.

#96 drydock on 11.07.14 at 7:13 am

};-) aka Devil’s Advocate

Every time i read something by this guy my bs meter needle points to inferno.

#97 Soggy City on 11.07.14 at 7:51 am

One thing folks are going to face in the next 10 years are horrendous repair bills as a result of the shoddy workmanship and intentional corner cutting that has gone on over the last 20 years. I live in a building (rent) in Hfx; the building is 14 years old and needs major exterior work; poorly installed flashing on all the decks, the cheapest siding available, building wrap put on incorrectly, no caulking. What a mess. There is major structural damage to the floors between units and exterior sheeting is rotten. These same people put up most of the housing here as well. If you are serious about buying a home, demand that siding comes off around windows and doors so you can really see what is going on.

#98 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.07.14 at 7:59 am

Oh the horror.

There’s what you know you know, what you know you don’t know and then there’s what you don’t know you don’t know.

Trying, yet again, the other day to educate a client on where the market really is, not what they hear it is from the MSN. Bottom line they might miss their best opportunity to sell because they thing the buyer isn’t offering enough. Fact is the buyer has made an AWESOME offer.

And then there is this blog which I will, as I have before, use to give him a perspective from the dark side. Not that it is an accurate perspective. And not that it will sway him so far in that direction but as an educational tool it might help bring him back closer to reality.

};-)

#99 maxx on 11.07.14 at 8:31 am

Dump CMHC. It’s just a rah-rah-sis-boom-bah party for banks.

This idiocy is not sustainable for the economy at large.

#100 maxx on 11.07.14 at 8:36 am

#3 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.06.14 at 7:38 pm

“I get the daily sold emails too (from Zoocasa). There are still bidding wars in a handful of areas (Lawrence Park, Leaside, etc.)…”

“However, I agree that bidding wars have stopped in most of the GTA.”

I can’t begin to imagine the RE hangover that is coming.

#101 Sheane Wallace on 11.07.14 at 8:38 am

#94 Leo Tolstoy

I thought Dostoevsky wrote ‘The idiot’ but what do I know..

#102 Renter's Revenge! on 11.07.14 at 8:56 am

“The government is going to use the BANKS as their “HAMMER” to clean the mess the government made, thereby washing their hands and looking like the good guys.” – observer01

It’s Hammer time! Da na na na. Can’t touch this…You can’t touch this…Can’t touch this!”

#103 dienekes on 11.07.14 at 9:17 am

I challenge Piya Chattopadhyay to do an unbiased report on what is happening in realestate across Canada. I didnt much like your crew in school for the 10 years we went together. To stuck up. Heres your chance to quit towing the line.
I think it would be better than hosting that woman beating idiots show. Let the show die with that idiot. Why would you want to be associated with that?

#104 BigM on 11.07.14 at 9:26 am

@75 DMD
whoever that guy is, can he adopt me ? Please ?

@88 Mike the banks in Spain were fine too, until the economy went into the toilet, and hordes of people and companies defaulted on their loans.

#105 Daisy Mae on 11.07.14 at 9:56 am

“As you know, oil has crashed….”

***********************

However, the gas at the pumps in Kelowna/West Kelowna remains the same — $1.239.

#106 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.07.14 at 10:08 am

#96 drydock on 11.07.14 at 7:13 am
};-) aka Devil’s Advocate

Every time i read something by this guy my bs meter needle points to inferno.

Oh I can well understand how you sometimes/oftentimes/everytime might not want to hear what I have to say. But that does not mean it is not the truth that you might someday wished you had understood.

The most powerful sales tool in the world is education. An education will motivate you to do things you might not previously have known you want or need to do or not do that which you should not be doing.

Read the name D-E-V-I-L-‘-S A-D-V-0-C-A-T-E. Maybe there is another side to the story. Maybe that which is so prevalent here is not so applicable in the real world.

Open your mind to the possibilities.

};-)

#107 Piccaso on 11.07.14 at 10:08 am

26,500 jobs added in October vs 69,300 added in September

So work for free our government says

#108 Kenchie on 11.07.14 at 10:23 am

China’s housing vacancy = ridiculously high
China’s mortgages that are underwater = ridiculously high

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-11/mindblowing-fact-day-china-has-over-52-million-vacant-homes

http://online.wsj.com/articles/more-than-1-in-5-homes-in-chinese-cities-are-empty-survey-says-1402484499

Ain’t reality a b!tch?

#109 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.07.14 at 10:50 am

@ #100 maxx on 11.07.14 at 8:36 am

I can’t begin to imagine the RE hangover that is coming.

———————————————-

Myself as well… but I’m completely confused at some of the houses selling for OVER ASK in the $1M-$1.5M range.
(since these would not be CMHC-backed money)

My best guess is that these are move-up buyers, but that alone doesn’t explain it.

For example, from yesterday:

245 Wanless Ave – C3054635
List: $1,295,000
Sold: $1,430,000 = 110% of ask

6 Days on Market (i.e. the typical list Wednesday/Thursday, Open House on weekend, offers on Tuesday)

#110 Cato the Elder on 11.07.14 at 11:05 am

You know folks, we’re at a unique time in human history. Our power to effect change is pretty much as non existent as it ever was. However, we are able to witness what is happening because of our free speech rights.

I implore anyone that is curious to examine what undermined the Roman empire. It is eerily similar to what is happening to our southern neighbour.

-Huge influxes of immigrants through porous borders draining existing social services
-Overstretched military
-Massive debts incurred through unprofitable foreign engagements
-Humungous percentage of the population dependent on government handouts (over 30%) – even for basics like food!
-Arrogant, power grabbing executive
-Inept senate that seeks to enrich themselves, rather than adopt a long term view of solving problems
-Disproportionately powerful military industry that siphons resources away from productive use (military industrial complex)
-AND THE MOST IMPORTANT OF ALL: A slow, never ending erosion of purchasing power as emperors debased the currency to pay for their ever increasing bills. This inflation is what, over centuries, eventually undermined every element of their society. Just as our fiat systems do today.

I’m afraid it’s a ship that is going too fast and is too big to turn around at this point.

***************

Re: #108 Kenchie

You’re assuming all those ‘ghost cities’ are a mistake. What if it was deliberate planning?

China isn’t stupid. They know in order to unseat the petrodollar system, a war may be necessary. What if those cities are a backup plan for if things go bad?

Even if that isn’t true, at least China invested their funds in REAL things. Here in Canada and in the US, our bailout money just goes to line the pockets of our banks. Nothing gets built with it.

It was necessary to deseat the French franc after the Napoleonic wars. It was necessary to deseat the British pound after WW2. It may be necessary to deseat the American dollar through a war as well.

A reserve currency system that requires a dominant power to use violent force against unreceptive parties is parasitic. It makes everyone that abides by it pay in sweat and blood, while the issuer receives huge advantages (US trade deficit 500 billion a year).

************

Re: #94 Leo Tolstoy

No offense, but I don’t think you’d make a good investor. The best time to buy something is when NO ONE ELSE IS. That is when it is cheapest.

If gold miners and gold are historically undervalued, and everyone else is piling into tech stocks and real estate like never before, perhaps it’s time to take a look at them.

The time you don’t want to be invested in anything is when you’re at a conference and you ask people what they’re doing and 90% of them are doing it. Real estate is like that now.

I know complete idiots that talk about their real estate ‘investment’. I ask them simple questions like cash flow, what could happen if rates adjust, how they will deal with unruly tenants, if they have funds in case of an emergency (broken water heater etc.) and they’re clueless.

To them, an ‘investment’ is really just a speculative money allocation.

On gold, maybe Canada is being foolish enough to give it all away. You need to look at what’s going on in the world’s biggest market: China. They’re buying it all up. And China and India have a cultural affiliation with it – it’s not something that can be rationalized – therefore it will continue.

There is a limit to the manipulation our bankers are doing to gold and silvers price – and that limit is physical. They can lower the price all they want, but if eventually, physical supplies drop below a certain threshold, there will be shortages at those prices. That’s when you can expect large increases.

#111 Rational Optimist on 11.07.14 at 11:10 am

79 Mike S on 11.07.14 at 1:09 am

“Probably isn’t going to happen sooner, as H knows it is his elections to loose [sic] (even without the economic headwinds).”

Which part of the country are you located in? I’m ambivalent about all the parties at the moment, and certainly agree with #61 Van Isle Renter about Pierre’s kid, but I think you are overconfident. In 2011, the governing party won 73 seats in Ontario (nearly half of their members)- how do you suppose they’ll manage that again?

It’s going to be pretty interesting, and I look forward to hearing all of the predictions here over the next year. But I don’t think you can say it will be anyone’s to lose next year.

#112 Mike in Toronto on 11.07.14 at 11:15 am

106 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate

You talk about yourself too much.

#113 I love real estate on 11.07.14 at 11:32 am

With the greatest respect Garth facts are rolling out tat suggest the entire scenario of a real estate correction is incorrect.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/republicans-pledge-vote-soon-on-keystone-xl-1.2824580

Obama is too wishy washy to veto Keystone. It will pass and Alberta will remain strong including Calgary property.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canada-adds-43100-positions-as-jobless-rate-drops-to-65/article21493493/

Jobs are at their best since 2008. Ontario has the lionshare of new jobs and they are mostly good fulltime ones.

This looks very stable for the outlook on GTA real estate.

Hardly. Incomes are not increasing. Debt is at historic levels. — Garth

#114 Retired Boomer - WI on 11.07.14 at 11:38 am

#66 Kenchie

You are quite right. Assuming one could “equalize wealth” in one fell swoop all across a country (Canada), and THEN go hands-off.

In a relatively short time span the wealth distribution will have assumed much of its former distribution pattern.

Why, you ask? Habit. Both good, and bad habits like saving, spending, and investing, gambling, services to, taking from…

The majority of Lotto winners do not understand money, and revert to their usual, and customary lives. pay check to pay check – with DEBT!

#115 MarcFromOttawa on 11.07.14 at 11:41 am

#90 observer

‘This generation has no backbone, everything was given to them’

This statement probably coming from a boomer. The most self-entitled generation in the history of the world.

The boomers were raised in a time where it was possible to pay for a university tuition working a retail job during the summer.

A time where someone with only a high school diploma could raise a family of 6 with a stay at home wife.

A time where you weren’t competing with 3d world labor for a god damn job at Tim Hortons.

#116 Andy on 11.07.14 at 11:43 am

How come Canada job report is making it to reuters…. Didn’t know we are that imp…..

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/07/canada-economy-jobs-idUSL1N0SW1JZ20141107

how come this month Oct month job growth is being reported as revival of Canadian economy I mean 43100 in on month is like what…..Can it cover for entire year’s losses…

#117 Mike S on 11.07.14 at 11:50 am

“It’s going to be pretty interesting, and I look forward to hearing all of the predictions here over the next year. But I don’t think you can say it will be anyone’s to lose next year.”

Mistake there in my comment …

What I meant was:
Because it would be hard for H to keep the majority (which was since there was an even split between the NDP and Liberals in the last elections, while a clear lead for Liberals right now)

H will not rush into elections to lose that majority sooner. In absence of “shocks” as say high unemployment, it is better to hold until Autumn next year and give some tax breaks just before the elections

Exactly what he is doing. Now the most important part is keeping the economy in more or less OK shape.
Let’s see how that plays out

#118 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 11.07.14 at 12:02 pm

#116 Andy

Since Canada’s population is 1 tenth of the U.S. 43100 jobs would translate into over 400000 jobs in October in the U.S. That would be a very big number.

#119 Mike S on 11.07.14 at 12:20 pm

“One of the major banks closes branches and says 1,500 people will be punted. The country’s largest engineering firm says it’s shedding 4,000. The latest jobs numbers (Friday morning) showed a gain half the size of the previous month, with a dip in the jobless rate.”

I remember this paragraph was different last night. Do you know why the analysts were so off with regards to the employment expectations? Do we need better analysts?

#120 jess on 11.07.14 at 12:21 pm

genies

https://theconversation.com/big-accountancy-firms-have-a-human-rights-problem-28630

http://www.taxjustice.net/2014/11/06/pwc-luxembourg-wasnt-legal-behaviour/

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmpubacc/870/870.pdf

#121 Mark on 11.07.14 at 12:41 pm

“Oh and there is 22 trillion dollars in subprime motgages insured by CHMC in Mississauga alone and everyone of them is going to default by the end of the year. Source – Mark.”

Pathetic and lame attempt to misrepresent my comments. The real number for CMHC subprime mortgages is closer to $900B, although it can vary slightly.

No, not all of them are going to default, but if CMHC were a normally regulated subprime lender, it is likely that they would be restricted to leverage of 5X against such promises (banks, on “prime” mortgages, are typically restricted to around 10X, and subprime mortgages are obviously lower quality!). Hence, the required level of reserves would be in the range of approximately $180B. CMHC currently has owners’ equity in the range of $20B, hence, it can be said that the CMHC is approximately $160B under-capitalized relative to the ordinary requirements for capital in its “business”.

AFAIK, there’s no good way of predicting what CMHC might actually end up needing bail-out wise, as future policy directions are uncertain, but starting with the level of capital they’re deficient would be a good start.

#122 Peter on 11.07.14 at 12:57 pm

National Bank economist Marc Pinsonneault from the article isn’t worried about Vancouver and Toronto due high absorption rate, which is contrary to what you are preaching. So what is your point then?

Since when is this a two-city nation? — Garth

#123 miketheengineer on 11.07.14 at 12:59 pm

Garth et al:

Scotia and other Layoff’s

So 1500 more…wow. So see this, the big people…they know “something” is going to happen soon (2015?). What that is, who know. They are being proactive, to protect their share holders, etc. So they turf everyone now, don’t have to pay them xmas bonus etc. When, “something” happens, they are $$ positive and don’t have to have a knee jerk reaction. These are billion dollar companies…they know what is going on and where things are going.

Looks like the ride is going to get bumpy.

Big question is, what is the “something”? We are too small and un-important to know.

#124 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 11.07.14 at 1:02 pm

Still waiting for the trickle down thingy. Any day now.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/middle-class-troubles-in-one-chart-2014-11-06

#125 Peter on 11.07.14 at 1:02 pm

Hardly. Incomes are not increasing. Debt is at historic levels. — Garth

I disagree. The fact Canadian RE didn’t bust in 2009, that we are able service debt, strong job growth, and wealth increase in RE it’s a win-win. Plus BoC is almost guaranteeing no interest rate hike in 2 years. Your prediction of 4-5% rate renewal is again at least 2 years away.

Rates are now irrelevant. Job growth is 50% of what it was two years ago and income gains are less than inflation. Way too much net worth in a single asset – real estate. This is just as sustainable as the US middle class in 2005. — Garth

#126 Suede on 11.07.14 at 1:13 pm

How come nobody is rejoicing around here?

The DOW JONES hit a milestone yesterday

20,000 in CAD$

hello!?

#127 Mark on 11.07.14 at 1:17 pm

“I remember this paragraph was different last night. Do you know why the analysts were so off with regards to the employment expectations? Do we need better analysts?”

The denial runs very, very deep amongst people concerning the state of Canada’s falling (for the past year and a half) RE marketplace. As Garth pointed out here, the newspapers aren’t above running what effectively amounts to Realtor propaganda in place of news. Surely some ‘economists’ read the stuff, or worse, actually use the numbers generated by the Realtors (such as the BoC) without reading into them too carefully, and come to some spectacularly wrong conclusions.

It tends to be a lot better to observe actual bank behaviour when it comes to the economy, than to listen to their ‘economists’ research reports. BNS is laying off front-line staff for a reason — they seeing a far reduced volume of in-branch customer-facing business, particularly in high-ticket services like mortgages. The TD bank mailed me an offer to refinance my ULOC down to 2.49% because they’re desperate to lend to a highly creditworthy under-leveraged customer since they’ve run out of good credit prospects, even for subprime credit.

#128 Snowboid on 11.07.14 at 1:29 pm

#112 Mike in Toronto on 11.07.14 at 11:15 am…

The recent prattle from the golden god of Okanagan RE usually means…

Someone is off their meds again!

#129 WeiQi/Xiangqi on 11.07.14 at 1:30 pm

There are many people writing on here trying to predict Chinese influence. Perhaps you need to learn to think Asian to truly understand.

Perhaps Study wei-chi, or Igo, or, in English, Go the oldest game in the world. Observing this game will teach you true war across the board. http://www.wuzheng.me http://www.dragongoserver.net are some places to study this game, plus wikipedia for an intro.

This “game” is used to train businessmen in China and warlords. Master it and master the art and science of thinking Asian.

Xiangqi is chinese chess. It too is used to think Chinese, but Wei Qi more so.

#130 DMD on 11.07.14 at 1:36 pm

Net worth statement:

July 21, 2014- 3,490,100
July 31, 2014- 3,488,600
Aug 31, 2014- 3,555,000
Sep 30, 2014- 3,473,200
Oct, 31, 2014- 3,571,000
Nov 6, 2014- 3,647,000

And we care, why? — Garth

#131 Numb on 11.07.14 at 1:42 pm

@ DA

seeing as you love to use other people’s quotes, here’s one you may want to reflect on sometime

“None are so empty as those who are full of themselves ”

Benjamin Whichcote

#132 45north on 11.07.14 at 1:47 pm

lee bow : Now the question is, will the federal government have enough balls not to go Bernanke?

I understand this to mean what will the governing party do? The most obvious thing would be to reverse course on CMHC guarantees but it takes a long time to turn a big ship. It’s too late and as Garth points out everybody has already bought! They could always launch some ridiculous program such as Home Affordable Modification Program:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_Affordable_Modification_Program

Mark : Not sure what you mean by “Bernanke”, but it has been fairly obvious for the past few years, at least to me, that interest rates in Canada have been set far too high, and that a program of QE (ie: major interventionist policy) will undoubtedly be required.

my first reaction is that Bank of Canada overnight rate is 1% – I mean it doesn’t leave a lot of room to lower it

Sasha : I earn 77 cents for every male dollar earned in Canada. I’m not complaining. I enjoy my job as a high school teacher in the TDSB.

thank God you’re not complaining.
TDSB is The Toronto District School Board
http://www.tdsb.on.ca
well congratulations Sasha! The daughter of a friend is teaching in Eastmain Quebec. She (the friend not the daughter) tells me that you can no longer apply directly to the school boards but instead you must register at a central registry. The point is that teaching jobs are being rationed.

Koshy Alex : Koshy is that like kosher? Anyways from your link:

Alayne Fleischmann grew up in Terrace, British Columbia

And now, with Holder about to leave office and his Justice Department reportedly wrapping up its final settlements, the state is effectively putting the finishing touches on what will amount to a sweeping, industrywide effort to bury the facts of a whole generation of Wall Street corruption. “I could be sued into bankruptcy,” she says. “I could lose my license to practice law. I could lose everything. But if we don’t start speaking up, then this really is all we’re going to get: the biggest financial cover-up in history.”

Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-9-billion-witness-20141106#ixzz3IPCLllkV
Follow us: @rollingstone on Twitter | RollingStone on Facebook

Nomad : Sounds like defaults are increasing quick in Montreal and certain other Quebec cities:

It says notices are up in Quebec as a whole. I guess the home owner gets a notice advising that the bank may exercise its rights to take the house. I donno is there Power of Sale in Quebec? 921 notices in the whole of Quebec doesn’t sound like a lot.

#133 Spectacle on 11.07.14 at 1:50 pm

Some amazing blog remarks today from the pack! And GT.

#43 Vangrrl on 11.06.14 at 9:47 pm
#40: Damn right, I had an awesome bike commute to work this morning, except at 9am traffic was bumper to bumper and I sailed past the cars :).
Vote Gregor Robertson again!
******************
No, stop ! Can we get some sense and clarity of what is really going on with
“bike lanes”,
massive “civic re-engineering ”
and transit.

Blog dogs, don’t believe a word of this Agenda-21, Vision Party or all other social engineering.

Your being “taken for a ride” down a huge tyrannical rabbit hole of no return, if you go there.

This link will begin to explain some things,

http://www.thewire.com/politics/2012/06/inside-agenda-21-international-tyranny-bike-lanes/53844/

I’m giving you credit that your not a “Vision Party” (Notice the cute name…) dirty trick pumper or direct schill for him.

http://www.straight.com/article-837571/vancouver/vivian-krause-blog-attracts-interest-canada-revenue-agency-rcmp-and-tides-canada

On Robertson corruption, it goes deeper.

Or : http://alexgtsakumis.com/?p=8720

They want you jobless, unable to afford a home, unable to afford a car, and some would argue that they want half the population of the world ” disappeared “.

Here:
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2012/11/19/what-is-agenda-21-after-watching-this-you-may-not-want-to-know/

Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Sip9PDKB9o

Or
http://www.dcclothesline.com/2013/11/17/agenda-21-population-control-map-usa/

Probably the most important activity you can engage against. Or is generation WTF going to fall prey to Generation NWO, hope not. Really hope not.

Thanks G

Ps: the above links will illustrate why cottages on lakes will be a no access, or no entry for its owners. Or you get charged criminally.

#134 Mark on 11.07.14 at 1:55 pm

“I disagree. The fact Canadian RE didn’t bust in 2009, “

Actually it did. Only heroic measures at the CMHC and BoC were able to reflate. Houses were only sellable for 40-50% off at the worst of it in 2008/2009, at least in Calgary/Edmonton. The market basically locked up.


that we are able service debt, strong job growth, and wealth increase in RE it’s a win-win.

RE doesn’t increase wealth. It actually destroys wealth over time. And job growth has not been strong, outside of FIRE. Which is not sustainable.


Plus BoC is almost guaranteeing no interest rate hike in 2 years.

So? Probably will be longer. Won’t help mortgage borrowers who, due to overcapacity and declining prices, are likely to pay higher risk premiums on their borrowing. Additionally, subprime credit availability has been scaled back dramatically and costs are up due to changes to the CMHC subprime mortgage insurance program that backs most subprime lending in Canada.


Your prediction of 4-5% rate renewal is again at least 2 years away.”

2 years, pfft, mortgage borrowers tend to keep their loans for 30. As declining equity picks up steam due to the declining house prices, a lot of people are going to find their only viable offer from the banks is merely accepting the “posted rate” on a renewal. For most, that’s quite a change from the heavily discounted rate they probably got their previous mortgage at. The mortgage credit cycle giveth enormously from Canadian mortgage borrowers over the past decade. As the cycle reverses, it will increasingly taketh. The cost of credit, and risk premia, are always cyclical.

#135 Rusty Venture on 11.07.14 at 2:01 pm

I realize it’s anecdotal evidence, but my 20 year old was part of the good news job report. He went from a part-time minimum wage cashiers job, to a full time manufacturing position (welder), and his pay increased by more than 70%. In Ontari-owe!

He is still working part-time as a cashier, too…

#136 Nemesis on 11.07.14 at 2:07 pm

#TransientMillenialSkyTrainVanecdotals,Obviously…

#ClosingThe’Apathy’Gap?…

[G&M] – Vancouver mayoral race down to wire as challenger LaPointe tightens gap

“It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to watch how hard we’ve been working in the last three or four days to see that we’re taking this very seriously.” – Marcella Munro, VisionVancouver’s communications director

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/vancouver-mayoral-race-down-to-wire-as-challenger-lapointe-tightens-gap/article21492346/

#HowHard?HowSeriously?… #Or,No’Apathy’Here… #JustMoney[&PlentyOfIt]!…

[G&M] – Vision Vancouver list reveals $2.2-million in campaign donations

…”It is unusual for Vancouver residents voting in the civic election have that kind of information prior to election day.”…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/vision-vancouver-list-reveals-22-million-in-campaign-donations/article21491844/

#Quote’OTheDay,Or… #IfOnly…

“I do make morally based decisions when lives are at stake…”… – Mayor Robertson

#Vs.TheGroundTruths,Or… #NoFundBundlersHere… #JustTheScrooged&TheScrewed…

[CBC] – NDP leader says B.C. seniors face Scrooge-like Christmas dinner lottery: Health Minister Terry Lake to look into requests to restrict numbers of care home holiday guests

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/ndp-leader-says-b-c-seniors-face-scrooge-like-christmas-dinner-lottery-1.2826944

[G&M] – Hundreds of homeless die on B.C. streets, report finds

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/hundreds-of-homeless-die-on-bc-streets-report-finds/article21491192/

#137 bill on 11.07.14 at 2:10 pm

#112 Mike in Toronto on 11.07.14 at 11:15 am
Mike
may I rephrase that slightly to: he talks too much?
either way really I suppose…

#138 Mike S on 11.07.14 at 2:57 pm

“The denial runs very, very deep amongst people concerning the state of Canada’s falling (for the past year and a half) RE marketplace”

The job number surprise was on the high side
Analysts expected slightly negative numbers (inline with a slowing economy) but the actual statistics showed job growth

How so? analysts don’t do their market research correctly?

#139 Mike S on 11.07.14 at 3:18 pm

“As the cycle reverses, it will increasingly taketh. The cost of credit, and risk premia, are always cyclical.”

Just checked some bank sites:
CIBC 5 yr special – 3.24%
RBC 5 yr special – 3.24%
BMO 5 yr special – 3.29%
Scotia 5 yr special – 3.19%
TD 5 yr special – 3.28%

5 yr canada bond is 1.53% which is lower than it was this spring, when the advertised rates on bank sites were lower than 3%

#140 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.07.14 at 3:31 pm

#112 Mike in Toronto on 11.07.14 at 11:15 am
106 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate
You talk about yourself too much.

Thank you for pointing that out. I understand, I irritate you. “I” is the most commonly used word in the English language. Read as far back in the comments and you will see that is true of most every post in the comments section.

It’s difficult not to speak about one’s own experience on this venue. For the most part the comments here are ALL about personal opinion and conjecture. Who will prove to be right and who will prove to be wrong remains to be seen.

My participation here is as my moniker suggests – playing the Devil’s Advocate.

To quote Jack Nicholson’s character in A Few Good Men Too many “can’t handle the truth”. Trolling? Maybe in the minds of they who disagree.

Three things in life cannot be long hidden: the sun, the moon, and the truth.

#141 Daisy Mae on 11.07.14 at 3:36 pm

#123 Mike: “Looks like the ride is going to get bumpy.
Big question is, what is the “something”? We are too small and un-important to know….”

**********************

Yes, the recent 1500 layoffs and 120 branches closures by Scotiabank are a harbinger — an indication of what is about to happen. The public will be the last to know. We’d all better be on guard and protect ourselves as best we can.

#142 westcdn on 11.07.14 at 3:45 pm

I have a problem with fat politicians who don’t lose weight when they tell me to tighten my belt. I am starting to burn.

The Calgary municipal government wants a nearly a 5% annual increase of property taxes over the next 4 years. Plus they want to increase the PR department to explain why the increase is necessary. I say put the property tax increase to zero and listen to the whining from the public service – then we the public can decide what is important.
5%, where is this money going? Nenshi, you need to do some more explaining.

#143 peter on 11.07.14 at 3:45 pm

Since when is this a two-city nation? — Garth

Because that is were RE matters obviously and where the high paying jobs are.

Enjoying your navel? — Garth

#144 Daisy Mae on 11.07.14 at 3:45 pm

#128 Mark: “It tends to be a lot better to observe actual bank behavior when it comes to the economy, than to listen to their ‘economists’ research reports. BNS is laying off front-line staff for a reason….”

***********************

…and the public will be the last to know ’cause we’re not paying attention. :-(

#145 Cato the Elder on 11.07.14 at 3:47 pm

The problem with analysts is that they value data too much, and not anecdotal evidence from the street.

Common sense would dictate spending most of your money on a house, with costs rising daily, is not a good thing. No one needs tons of data or excel spreadsheets to understand that, but all those highly ‘educated’ Phds need to demonstrate their superiority somehow.

You will know housing is in trouble when your ignorant neighbour starts talking about it.

Until then, people will continue to move in herds. Many people on this blog are smart enough to realize there is a cliff ahead. Unfortunately, the masses have to start going over it before they realize there is a problem.

#146 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.07.14 at 3:48 pm

Habinger???

Oh pray tell oh wise one what can we expect?
First we must define it.

noun
1.
a person or thing that announces or indicates the approach of something; forerunner
2.
(obsolete) a person sent in advance of a royal party or army to obtain lodgings for them
verb
3.
(transitive) to announce the approach or arrival of
4. (current) Toronto Real Estate before it croaks!

#147 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.07.14 at 3:51 pm

Sitting here in Oakville watching the leave fall all around me. Sale signs are still going up. However they are staying up longer now……………………..
I don’t think harbinger is the correct word……….

Try Godzilla……………….

#148 NoName on 11.07.14 at 3:53 pm

#66 Kenchie on 11.07.14 at 12:04 am

so solution for wicked problem(s) that we have in this country is me me me? did i get this right?

#149 Doug in London on 11.07.14 at 4:02 pm

One of the major banks closes branches and says 1,500 people will be punted. The country’s largest engineering firm says it’s shedding 4,000.
—————————————————————-
Is that the labour shortage so many “experts” said would occur when the Boomers started retiring?

#150 Kris on 11.07.14 at 4:20 pm

Can anyone shed light on Scotiabank (and perhaps other bank) layoffs & branch closures? Haven’t t the Big 5 banks been raking in record profits lately?

#151 RealistvsExtremist on 11.07.14 at 5:13 pm

5%, where is this money going? Nenshi, you need to do some more explaining.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Politicians and Public Sector employees can blow hard all they want but they are all lying.

All new tax increases go to salaries and pensions of govt. All you need to do is look at the liabilities vs assets (cash in this case) if you don’t believe that.

#152 Blacksheep on 11.07.14 at 5:36 pm

Mark,

“I disagree. The fact Canadian RE didn’t bust in 2009,”

“Actually it did. Only heroic measures at the CMHC and BoC were able to reflate.”

Agreed. You have to realize, they will do it again…if necessary. RE represents 70% owners, 30 % employment = whole lot of voters.

“Houses were only sellable for 40-50% off at the worst of it in 2008/2009”

Only sellable @ 40% off ? I gotta call BS. How bout some stats, supporting your statement?

I sold my home in the Fraser Valley, Aug / 08 @ 5% below market to get out. Cause you know, the market was going to crash. It had to, the States did.

Ya right, blew that call. Thank god for GOLD.

You sold the metals in 2011, right? — Garth

#153 Cato the Elder on 11.07.14 at 5:57 pm

Re: #151 Kris

Read the bottom of my #56 post for an explanation about the banking sector.

*************

Just to summarize, our economy is becoming fully socialized to benefit the banks. This is not by accident, the system was fully designed as such.

Only businesses with full access to credit can survive. It is impossible to compete with businesses that can finance themselves with MONEY CREATED OUT OF THIN AIR.

Everything is already owned by the banks. If you have a mortgage on your house, you don’t own it. If you have credit card debt or student loans, you don’t own your salaries – those lenders get first access. If you have a business with any debt, the business isn’t yours. If our government runs deficits (which is does in perpetuity over the long run), WE DON’T OWN IT anymore – the banks finance that as well.

See, banks want everyone to be in debt. When you’re in debt, they can apply leverage – they own you. Do as they say, because you owe them. This is how our country has been taken over and undermined. What is happening in Greece today, whereby bankers fly in and replace government officials on a whim, will happen here some day.

People the world over ought to be pissed off, and rightfully so, at this system of enslavement.

How do we fix this? Well, it began with the legalized counterfeiting conducted by our central bank the Bank of Canada when it was established at the turn of the century. After many central planning induced crises, they eventually completely severed the link to gold/silver in the 1970s. The middle class has been rapidly deteriorating since that point.

The solution is simple: gold and silver money. All we need to do is legalize ANYTHING to be used as money. Let people voluntarily choose what they want to use, instead of forcing them to use perpetually worthless paper issue by the banks.

The economy will right itself after several years of adjustment to this anchor that keeps politicians honest.

#154 jess on 11.07.14 at 6:00 pm

raised $1 billion then collapses 7 months later ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-2823191/OW-Bunker-says-risk-bankruptcy-discovering-fraud.html
========

Egregious Case of Health Care Fraud
Cancer Doctor Admits Prescribing Unnecessary Chemotherapy

11/06/14

Imagine receiving a diagnosis of cancer and then having to go through chemotherapy or other intensive treatments. Then imagine finding out that you never had cancer in the first place and that your doctor—whom you trusted implicitly—merely used you in his scheme to fraudulently bill the federal Medicare program and private insurance companies for hundreds of millions of dollars.

That’s exactly what happened to patients of Dr. Farid Fata, a Detroit-area hematologist and oncologist. And it was not only cancer diagnoses. Some patients were told, wrongly, that they had other conditions which required expensive intravenous therapies, medications, and diagnostic tests…all of which jeopardized their health and well-being…

Fata operated a cancer treatment clinic—Michigan Hematology Oncology, P.C.—which had multiple locations throughout Michigan. He also owned a diagnostic testing facility—United Diagnostics, PLLC—in Rochester Hills, Michigan. His case came to light in the summer of 2013, when allegations against him came to the attention of the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Michigan and the Medicare Fraud Strike Force from the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) Criminal Division.”

#155 Smoking Man on 11.07.14 at 6:03 pm

#148 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.07.14 at 3:51 pmSitting here in Oakville watching the leave fall all around me. Sale signs are still going up. However they are staying up longer now……………………..
I don’t think harbinger is the correct word……….

Try Godzilla……………….
……..

You just don’t know the herd….

#156 DM in C on 11.07.14 at 6:17 pm

DMD:

Why do you keep posting your net worth, apropos of nothing? Do other things in your life not ‘measure up’?

As to the DA infection — the problem with him is his hubristic tone — his pretentious use of language only shows he knows how to use a thesaurus, and illustrates his insecurity about his own educational background.

Basically, a know it all blowhard.

#157 Mark on 11.07.14 at 6:17 pm

“….How do we fix this?… “

Why not just become a bank shareholder/owner and participate in the profits of banking? Instead of coming here with long diatribes of how you feel the system is rigged against you, and calls to destroy it?

There’s nothing stopping anyone in Canada from using gold and silver as money. Nothing. Of course, it might have different characteristics of volatility, and exchangeability compared to other forms of “money”, but nothing stops you from adopting that as your personal credo.

“Only sellable @ 40% off ? I gotta call BS. How bout some stats, supporting your statement?”

If you remember the period, October-2008/March-2009, the market was effectively “locked up” because prices were way too high. Now the media claimed that it was a ‘credit crisis’. The stock market shed nearly 50% in that period. There was minimal price discovery, but at least in Edmonton/Calgary, to get anyone to even consider a for-sale house seriously, it had to be priced 40-50% less than the 2007/2008 peak. After all, houses competed against collapsed stocks for investment dollars during that era.

#158 DM in C on 11.07.14 at 6:18 pm

Basically an insecure, know it all blowhard.

Next it’ll be calling everyone here pups and poodles and bragging about his hot wife. It’s his pattern.

#159 sayitaintso on 11.07.14 at 6:40 pm

#140 Mike S on 11.07.14 at 3:18 pm
______________________________

i just locked in with TD 4 years at 2.89%
the 5 year rate i was offered at 3.05%

#160 the Jaguar on 11.07.14 at 6:51 pm

#151 Kris….
Follow the money. We live in an internet age with electronic efficiencies. Banks are businesses…responsible to shareholders (like you if you own their shares or mutual funds). If ‘bricks and mortar” (branches) are not the most economically efficient way to service customers and they can make a business case to close a branch or sever employees, which might make sense in some smaller, older communities where industry has left long ago or for other reasons, why not do it? They will allocate their resources where they get the most bang for their buck. Things aren’t working out the way Scotiabank thought they would in the carribbean and other areas of latin America. And where they can employ new technologies or efficiencies (even if it means a charge against their financials for the severance packages) they will do so to maximize shareholder return. They will get the money back later.
For some employees who are ready to retire it might be a godsend. They pray for those moments. They can redeploy their talents and take the golden handshake. It’s never personal. It’s always a business decision. The big banks are not the government. They are responsible to their customers and the communities they serve…….to a point.

#161 Habs76-79 on 11.07.14 at 7:49 pm

#151 Kris

Can anyone shed light on Scotiabank (and perhaps other bank) layoffs & branch closures? Haven’t t the Big 5 banks been raking in record profits lately?

———————————–

Profits and tax incentives for corporations have nothing to do with employment, layoffs what have you.

Contrary to years of spin n’ lies profits and worse corporate tax breaks DO NOT EQUAL MORE JOBS OR LACK OF LAYOFFS!

Companies big, not so big or small ONLY hire and keep staff employed if there is active interest in consumers buying their products and/or services. A tax break will NOT mean any company hiring people or not laying people off. If a company has enough sell through of products and/or services to keep and maybe expand their work force, they shall keep and hire these workers. If they find they do not need workers for whatever reason, outsourcing, technology or dropping off of business, THEY WILL LAY THEM OFF! No tax breaks will prevent such. No higher profits will prevent such.

Companies do not keep people on the payroll if they cannot add value to the running of the business and or making of profits, THAT IS IT!

So even though the big banks are raking in the dough, it has nothing to do with keeping employees. If a worker has a place in said company he/she will keep their job. If they don’t, profit or not they will be laid off.

The myth of corporate tax breaks and high profits equaling more employment MUST STOP! Only a fair and vibrant consumer economy can yield more jobs and more stability in jobs. If consumers fall in confidence in a company up to in general all companies of a said nation or society, if they are TAPPED OUT cash wise or swamped by debt they will begin to pull back and /or out of the consumer economy where they can and a such this will snowball in layoffs and maybe failed companies.

It’s that clear and that simple no matter what gibberish is spoken by talking heads in politics, bureaucracy, economists and in the greater business world.

#162 Enzo Cavaliere on 11.08.14 at 9:48 am

Mark,
“….how do we fix this?…”
Avoid bank stocks for the next 5 years, Mark Carney has already jumped ship and poor Jim Flaherty succumbed to a heart attack… Bless his heart he did champion lower CDN housing prices and debt levels… to fix the balance sheet at CHMC (150B give or take a few B) … the Feb will look at no other than the fat bank profits from the previous decade…. Start shorting housing sensitive CDN housing equities and make MONEY… Thanks Garth – truly brilliant work and perseverance….
enzholdings….