Generations

CARS modified

Remember what central banker Poloz said last week keeps him up at night? Yup. Shocks. Things the Bank of Canada can’t control, but have the potential to make our indebted economy roll over. He mentioned commodity prices in particular. That was prescient.

Thanks to the ISIS tribal nutbars now ransacking Iraq and undoing whatever it was $2.2 trillion in US war effort accomplished over a decade, oil is taking off. Analysts think $116 or $120 a barrel is quite possible (West Texas is currently $106 and Brent is $112), but that could spiral quickly if Iraq descends into Hell. You might remember that oil at $140 a barrel in June of 2008 was heralded as one of the causes of the GFC.

So what? So, gas already at $1.60 a litre for the good stuff in Toronto and $1.69 in Vancouver could jump even further, putting a serious dent in the cash flow of families already shouldering record mortgage debt. And reflect on what this does to suburban real estate, where it can take a litre of gas to go and fetch a litre of milk.

There’s zero chance of the Yanks going back into Iraq with boots on the ground. There are better odds of a wider conflict engulfing both Iraq and Syria, plus a civil war that might end with the de facto creation of three hostile states where one now exists. Not the conditions for energy security, as the world’s fourth-largest producer disintegrates into sectarian mayhem.

It could all blow over, but I doubt it. Higher oil prices will just send Calgary realtors into the next level of endorphin-laced ecstasy, of course. But for consumers whose wages are already trailing the modest inflation rate, it’s a burden. It’s the kind of external shock Stephen Poloz warned of, in a country where consumers have never gambled so much on a single asset.

***

Well, I noticed some blathering on this pathetic blog over the weekend on the sorry topic of Millennials. Some people think this generation will save the world from the navel-gazing, soul-sucking, job-hording, house-horny myopia of the Boomers. Others think this is a cohort of entitled, whiny, over-educated and coddled losers who would rather stay in your basement and then ask you for a condo down payment than accomplish anything on their own.

I agree.

In any case, generational warfare is always fun, and it almost always has a real estate component. BMO economist Robert Kavcic (we talked about him last week) thinks the Boomers’ kids – more than ten million of them – will keep real estate healthy for a few more years, because they’re in that expansionary family zone. But after that, he sees trouble as demographics turn more negative (Boomers selling off houses, smaller batch of young buyers).

Now, what happens when house prices correct (and they will, trust me)? What kind of impact would this have on generations, and who would be gored the most?

In the US, it’s been Gen X which has suffered the most from the housing meltdown of 2006-2012. Those born between the mid-1960s and the 1980s now seriously lag behind where other generations were at the same age in building assets. It’s estimated that, on average, the real estate crash cost this generation a stunning 54% of its collective net worth – simply because that’s exactly where most people dumped all of their wealth. No diversification. Just a house and a mortgage. And when the bubble burst, no liquidity.

According to William Emmons, an economist with the Fed’s Centre for Household Financial Stability (we could use one of those), people between 35 and 44 were creamed because of real estate debt. Those born between 1978 and 1983 constitute ‘ground zero’, and the most severely wounded.

“Generation X was hit the hardest. For those families themselves, there’s limited time to make up some of those losses. For the economy overall, families that are struggling pretty hard to make up their savings aren’t spending as much, so that’s a drag.”

So, there’s a lesson here, of course. Invest in only one thing, and take on a massive amount of debt doing so, and you’re gambling against things you cannot control. It might be renewing your mortgage in five years at double the rate. It could be the Iraqi nutbars and $2 gas. Maybe China will blow up. Who knows?

But this is obvious: if you have a house and no other assets, at least find religion.

***

I have such great fans. Thank you. Just to start the week off on a positive note, here’s a supportive email from Alberta.

I wanted to say thanks for your blog.  I look forward to reading it every morning while I drink my coffee in my rented apartment.

My only worry is that you may someday stop writing. Or die, I’d be upset.

Let’s say you did die.  Do you have any recommendations for continued reading that is at all sane?

Much love xoxo,
Darlene

178 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 06.15.14 at 6:32 pm

Busy week on the blog this week

Blithe Barrington hosts the following events:

Mon: Snifter pear shaped vessel: tips on Brandy

Tues: Get off your nigh horse: mounting and dismounting your steed.

Wed: Dose but no cigar: cleaning your smoking pipe – a pre-cigarette alternative.

Thurs: Pub Nite at North Side Ronny’s – $4.50 beers and highballs.

Fri: Choosing a Station-in-life Wagon: Distinguishing autocars.

Sat: Gauche Theorem: trading your social ills for another.

#2 tkid on 06.15.14 at 6:36 pm

[email protected] It’s good to know one is loved!

#3 Happy Renting on 06.15.14 at 6:38 pm

$1.60/litre gas? Wow, that $0.01-off-per-litre coupon Sobey’s gave me (max. 75 litres) will make such a dent in the cost of filling up, now!

#4 Jas Girn on 06.15.14 at 6:39 pm

Awesome article!

#5 Mark on 06.15.14 at 6:40 pm

Housing won’t go up enough to restore the equity, but hopefully the young will eventually see the fruits of salary increases and high equity returns.

Of course, the young that keeps all their cash in a ‘savings’ account, probably won’t benefit. The smart young people these days are buying key sectors of the worldwide economy on credit, and are waiting for these sectors to come back into favour. Some of the bargains out there are outstanding.

#6 wendi1 on 06.15.14 at 6:41 pm

Surely if you died, a hundred thousand blogs would spring up to take your place…

People aren’t doing it now because you would be competition.

But after your death, all the blogs would be an homage…

#7 Randy on 06.15.14 at 6:42 pm

Darlene. has led a full life !

#8 John on 06.15.14 at 6:43 pm

And happy Father’s Day!

I hope your gift this spring wasn’t an overpriced house paid for by a fat mortgage, made possible by sacrificing the wiser purchase of better performing assets, and perhaps by the persuasive influence of your significant other!

#9 Martuzzi on 06.15.14 at 6:45 pm

First to say we won’t see $140 oil anytime soon.

#10 Jack Henning on 06.15.14 at 6:48 pm

H.S.T. of 20% in Ontario, 19% H.S.T. in B.C., Gas at 2.30 a liter by 2021, monthly hydro, electricity bills of $7,000 on average a year in Ontario, B.C. by 2021.

New road tolls in Ontario, B.C., new and higher carbon taxes costing thousands a year.

Property taxes higher by at least 30% to 40% by 2018, water rates up by 100% by 2021, higher or new income taxes costing about $2,000 a year for the average family in Canada by 2021.

This could easily be a $1,800 a year Ontario health tax, premium. Other provinces will follow in the same manner.

Municipal governments will do their part with many more user fees, new taxes as well like land transfer taxes, sales taxes, garbage taxes, transit taxes, road tolls, parking fees etc.

I can go on and on but get ready to get royally fleeced by municipal, provincial governments now and in the future as the 3 levels of the government turns red.

Yes and your services will still suck because it is all a front to get more money for pensions, benefits for retirees and workers for all the government, public sector of Canada.

Canadians have such short memories and the only way they will remember is by being shocked when it is too late.

#11 devore on 06.15.14 at 6:50 pm

Oh, that comment, Garth… you should be flattered. Unless it’s a stalker.

#12 bill on 06.15.14 at 6:54 pm

a good question Darlene!
do you have a list of recomended reading Garth?

#13 Slow Canada on 06.15.14 at 6:54 pm

Don’t die, Garth!

#14 Shanks on 06.15.14 at 6:59 pm

Ah not first

#15 sdp on 06.15.14 at 7:01 pm

Having escaped Halifax last year, just in time and now patrolling Quebec city and seeing those that are currently living in denial, I am looking forward to a healthy correction. Unfortunately, the impact on jobs and the economy is going to be severe. Live low, don’t bring any attention to yourselves and help out in the community. Hate to see,Canada end up with gated communities. Where to invest outside of Canada? % by country or continent would,be helpful guidance.

#16 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.15.14 at 7:02 pm

It’s estimated that, on average, the real estate crash cost this generation a stunning 54% of its collective net worth – simply because that’s exactly where most people dumped all of their wealth.

Aside from the net worth implosion, and the immediate drop in GDP (thanks to the high % tied to the RE sector), I actually think that a housing crash would help to save the Canadian Economy in the long run.

Houses get cheaper, and the main expense that families have to pay also gets cheaper. Everyone from transit employees to teachers to private sector workers can get by with smaller raises year-over-year, because the cost of living is lower. And, employers stop getting screwed with having to pay people ridiculous amounts just because they happen to live near Toronto or Vancouver.

So – bring on the crash!

#17 kiLLAbOY49 on 06.15.14 at 7:02 pm

I like high oil prices.

#18 totalinvestor.com on 06.15.14 at 7:03 pm

Canada’s Real Estate Crisis: The China Syndrome

http://totalinvestor.blogspot.ca/2014/06/canadas-real-estate-crisis-china.html

#19 Retired Boomer - WI on 06.15.14 at 7:03 pm

Darlene-

As long as he doesn’t walk the dog on the ice without adequate protections we could lose the old boy newt time.

He was lucky it was just a mangled ankle, it could have been scrambled brain. Hope the recovery is on track.

Yes, RE cooling does have its victims, but nobody sees them being set up until it is too late. A decade from now with us Boomers selling off to go to the geezer homes in FL, or somewhere a bit less frigid who will stupid enough to buy them then?

he supply of fools, like the supply of cheap oil is, indeed finite.

A simple doubling of petrol prices would make me smile, but financially hand-cap many!

#20 Old Man on 06.15.14 at 7:12 pm

It has been a long time indeed when I have ever received an email signed “Much love xoxo” so am getting jealous. Perhaps I need to grow a beard or get me a pair of cowboy boots too.

#21 Ayn Rand Army on 06.15.14 at 7:14 pm

Catching up on some great posts from yesterday….

Shout out to U,

#186 Setting the Record Straight on 06.15.14 at 2:19 am
I didn’t vote either and never will again (haven’t for years), at least not at a ballot box. But this most recent election has really done it now and i will be voting with my feet for 2015. Hello Malaysia! I’m coming baby!! haha

#187 BillyBob on 06.15.14 at 2:56 am
Awesome! Wish i was a pilot too but while you’re up in the skies and cavorting with the millennials, i’m unfortunately stuck in the trenches of Canada with the blood and the guts and the beer, but at least i gots Johnny Cash to help keep my head up! :-) Great post!

#188 maxx on 06.15.14 at 8:17 am
Great post. Yep, that’s it. Canadians are officially the stupidest people in the world. I guess that’s what happens after decades of an easy ride on the second stupidest peoples coat tails….. well it will all be quite evident soon…. FU NA! I’m lookin’ for da door and 2015 non res status for this cowboy.

#22 Lastline on 06.15.14 at 7:24 pm

$2/L gas would be the trigger to seriously push the “house poor” over the edge. Next thing you have is a wave of forced selling , foreclosures, low liquidity and high debt to income coupled with rising interest rates.

A perfect storm for a new mortgage crisis. They won’t even know what hit ’em.

#23 Ray Skunk on 06.15.14 at 7:25 pm

Darlene raises a good point. F’s sudden departure reminds us all how little time we have left. Ignoring the extreme though, what about when you retire/lose interest in this place?

Have you considered grooming a successor to take over when you hang up your beard to spend more time with Bandit?

Must be fiscally prudent, unafraid to annoy Realtors or God-bothers, and -most importantly – be able to construct a cohesive, grammatically-correct paragraph or three.

Which rules many of us Blog Dogs out.

#24 mark on 06.15.14 at 7:31 pm

Tell Darlene to go back to the beginning of the blog and start again.

It’s all still relevant.

#25 pete on 06.15.14 at 7:31 pm

The seriously inflated housing market bubble here in Canada (and elsewhere) is actually a covert war on the baby boomers. Ultra low rate mortgages are being given out to just about anyone who applies. These mortgages are backed up by CMHC, a government agency which underwrites all mortgages in Canada, thereby guaranteeing that no bank will ever lose money on the issuance of a home mortgage. Canada now has a 70% rate of home ownership. Countless high-rise condos are being built in Toronto, Vancouver, etc. The targeted buyers for these condos are young, first-time buyers, getting mortgages with virtually no down payment.

Issue #1 here is that this housing market is the only thing keeping the Canadian economy from complete implosion.

Issue #2 is that this is a concerted effort to steal the wealth of the baby-boomer generation. Most baby-boomers are house-rich and cash-poor,
and have always assumed that they will be able to retire in comfort from the sale of their homes which have been skyrocketing in price over the
last 2 decades.

These low mortgage rates are not a mistake, nor are the HELOC’s (home equity lines of credit) promoted by the banks.

The plan is for all of the younger people to be already be saddled with debt and unable to purchase the homes of the baby-boomers when these homes come on the market. This will make the confiscation of the wealth of the baby-boomers a foregone conclusion. The retirees will have to spend down their savings on simple living and property taxes and then either lose their homes to bank foreclosure (most already have a HELOC’s
or they still have a mortgage) or get a reverse mortgage just to put food on the table. Many have given money to their children to purchase their first home or have co-signed on a mortgage. By the end of thebaby-boomers generation most real estate will have reverted back to the banks. Ending private property ownership has always been part of Agenda 21.

It’s a devious plan and it is going to work perfectly. The point of no-return was passed long ago.

Tell me this isn’t hyperinflation when mortgages are being given out for $1 Million so some kid can use that $1 million to buy a tear-down clapboard house in the outskirts of Vancouver, the same house which if
it were in a small town somewhere might only fetch as little as $35000. Hyperinflation is already here by the printing of money for these mortgages as a way of ever inflating the prices of homes and by issuances of lines of credit against the homes. Bread isn’t costing $500
a loaf yet, but your $35000 home is costing you $1 Million. Low interest rates and HELOC’s allowing it all to keep running smoothly in the short-term.

#26 Real Estate reality-check on 06.15.14 at 7:38 pm

From yesterdays Van Sun:
NPA kicks out two Vancouver school trustees over remarks on transgender policy

The NPA released a statement late Friday afternoon declaring it had formally expelled Ken Denike and Sophia Woo “given that the two have chosen to follow their own course in various matters without consulting with the other members of caucus.”

“The caucus has concluded that Denike and Woo do not share the same level of sensitivity and understanding of the LGBTQ+ community.”

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/kicks+Vancouver+school+trustees+over+remarks+transgender/9937777/story.html

so, what does that have to do with Vancouver Real Eastate?
Apparently, this:

“The first sentence of a release that Woo and Denike put together to draw journalists to the news conference at Flamingo House Chinese Restaurant, however, said:

“Realtors express concern that a revised policy on sexual orientation and gender identities could negatively impact enrolment of international students and West Side students in Vancouver’s public schools.”

“Asked if realtors are concerned that foreign parents will stop buying houses or condos for their children to live in while they attend school in Vancouver, Denike said West Side realtors know there is strong “competition” for international students, whose offshore parents might avoid Vancouver schools in the future.

Is this another example of the warped thinking of the house-buying masses?

#27 Jetfixer on 06.15.14 at 7:40 pm

I hope those ISIL scumbags get smoked by some Iraqi’s that actually hold their ground with American air support. Retail sales are already low because of fuel. This will do serious damage to the economy. I guarantee it will get worse before it gets better. At least all of the oil production is in the south. I would say we are on a way too small of a margin for oil if something like this can cause global havoc. I can’t wait until the day oil prices itself out of the market and we can say good riddance to all this. Then what will they do?

#28 Harvey Lipshitz on 06.15.14 at 7:42 pm

If Real Estate in the GTA corrects will the Liberals get any blame…or just Hudak and Harris ?

#29 Daisy Mae on 06.15.14 at 7:44 pm

“I have such great fans. Thank you. Just to start the week off on a positive note, here’s a supportive email from Alberta.”

******************

Good grief…

Well, relax! “Only the good die young.”

#30 brainsail on 06.15.14 at 7:46 pm

Yep, it hurt today when I filled one of our cars today in central Texas…$3.50 a gallon for premium.

.

#31 Jeff in Leaside on 06.15.14 at 7:50 pm

Darlene;

There just ain’t anyone in Canada with the stones to say bluntly, AND, link to other analysts for quiet support.
If, by the grace of (an unamed God), he were to pass, I think that we are all going to loose more than that morning coffee.

#32 Spectacle on 06.15.14 at 7:53 pm

Yes, happy Father’s Day Garth, & Thanks!

Re: #10 Jack Henning.
” H.S.T. of 20% in Ontario, 19% H.S.T. in B.C., Gas at 2.30 a liter by 2021, monthly hydro, electricity bills of $7,000 on average a year in Ontario, B.C. by 2021.

New road tolls in Ontario, B.C., new and higher carbon taxes costing thousands a year.

Property taxes higher by at least 30% to 40% by 2018, water rates up by 100% by 2021, higher or new income taxes costing about $2,000 a year for the average family in Canada by 2021.

This could easily be a $1,800 a year Ontario health tax, premium……..

………more user fees, new taxes as well like land transfer taxes, sales taxes, garbage taxes, transit taxes, road tolls, parking fees etc.

……..get ready to get royally fleeced by municipal, provincial governments now and in the future as the 3 levels of the government turns red.

Canadians have such short memories and the only way they will remember is by being shocked when it is too late. ”

My response: Yes, the ” shock ” is here , with sooo much more to come Jack.

Fun quote to Google for yourself:

“Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the
industrialized civilizations collapse?
Isn’t it our responsiblity to bring that about?”
– Maurice Strong,
founder of the UN Environment Programme

But there is hope to change that.

#33 Jack Henning on 06.15.14 at 7:58 pm

Red taxing years are coming!

#34 james on 06.15.14 at 8:06 pm

“Thanks to the ISIS tribal nutbars now ransacking Iraq and undoing whatever it was $2.2 trillion in US war effort accomplished over a decade”

Uh, didn’t we fund the same people in Syria?

The latter part of your sentence is immoral. Undoing the ‘accomplishments’ of a completely illegal and unnecessary conflict that saw hundreds of thousands killed, millions displaced, cities flattened… (etc). If only we COULD undo the ‘accomplishments’ of such a humanitarian effort.

If you object to the latter part of the sentence, then try reading the whole thing. — Garth

#35 Nemesis on 06.15.14 at 8:10 pm

#BeardedPatriarchs’Day. #LegendsNeverDie.

http://youtu.be/SSRVtlTwFs8

[NoteToGT: ¡Qué hijo de puta! Still in print! We should be so lucky: http://www.amazon.ca/gp/aw/d/1481927663 ]

#36 fleabitten Monkey on 06.15.14 at 8:16 pm

What percentage of the population buys the “good stuff”. Are you referring to the high octane? I filled up today in Vancouver at $1.52. Where are you getting your gas prices?

Premium prices, GasBuddy. You drive a Kia? — Garth

#37 joblo on 06.15.14 at 8:24 pm

Isn’t it about time we get on with Clean water, Clean Power, Clean Air and Energy Efficiency?
Takes care of the “nut bars” and provides new jobs
If not by 2050 Gen X, Y, Z have more to worry about than crashed house prices

#38 Ayn Rand Army on 06.15.14 at 8:26 pm

ok G, i finally got round to reading today’s post.

What are you talking about? Everyone i know born around the 1970s is rockin’ out in net worth from the housing boom in Burlington! ‘cept me. The smart one who sold in 2002 to go get a useless edumecated degree and then continue on my path of entreprewhoreship. Thinking what could go wrong if i worked hard and smart and sacrifice then for a better now….. answer, everything went wrong!

The year i came to market 2008 was the end of the good times and now it’s really hitting home as the QE wears off.

Also, FYI, people saving is not a drag, that is where production comes from, savings. How the hell do you think capitalism works!? Capital is someones savings. You gotta get out of the Keynes
mental retarded zone they taught you back in the 60s at U of T.

And, China ain’t gonna blow up. That’s where everything is made, that’s where the capital and savings are located! Jeesus!

This is why i’m leaving. The errors in understanding just will not end except in tears. Just like USA, they an us will try everything wrong until the end we will finally get it right, again.

Please read the US constitution. Those men have more brains than all the millennials and their stupid parents and grandparents and pets put together.

#39 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.15.14 at 8:27 pm

DELETED

#40 statsfreak on 06.15.14 at 8:28 pm

I was trying to think of something pithy to say, but no go. I keep cracking up re-reading Darlene’s e-mail.

Happy Daddy’s Day to you Garth!!!

#41 Freedom First on 06.15.14 at 8:30 pm

Garth, how nice, getting an e-mail from a woman with love and kisses who hopes you live forever. That must be so refreshing as we are aware from your past posts that you have received thousands of e-mails from people wanting you to die after suffering unimaginably perverse acts of sexual deviation, for which you have censored the details from us for obvious reasons. Knowing this, Garth, I hope you live a long and prosperous life.

Yes, the trouble in Iraq has the potential to be more terrible than most unaware people realize. Gas prices, yes, this could be the beginning of something big. Like all unforseen “Hurricanes”, you never see it and then it hits you. It is good to be prepared. One asset, all in and leveraged, is extremely dangerous. No exception.

#42 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.15.14 at 8:33 pm

DELETED

#43 why is east van on fire ? on 06.15.14 at 8:33 pm

Nothing beats telling how much real estate goes up when it happens right next to your house.
Sold 2 years ago for 600k and yesterday listed at 1,088,000. Thats like 488,000.00 more in just 2 lousy years.
https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&sqi=2&ved=0CBwQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rew.ca%2Fproperties%2FV1070217%2F1942-east-49th-avenue-vancouver&ei=gjqeU4XYLcTpoATazoKACA&usg=AFQjCNHWEDXFfExBv9IWQDHHSOC8Q2WF2A&sig2=XIt_0QiPIRyChYK9OyAjkw&bvm=bv.68911936,d.cGU

#44 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.15.14 at 8:35 pm

Yes the Millennials will add fuel to the market. No it will not last. Yes there will be a “between” generation like the X generation and then there will be another Boomer/Millennial generation.

SHIFT happens };-)

#45 Godth on 06.15.14 at 8:37 pm

The Latest Regional Slugfest
On to Baghdad
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/06/13/on-to-baghdad/

#46 Chickenlittle on 06.15.14 at 8:39 pm

$2 a litre gas may just be the “paradigm” shift Devils Advocate was talking about.

Get ready fellow Millennials: Devils Advocate helped you buy your house and later on he will gladly sell your too- expensive-to-run house for you. You can “shift” your money to his bank account once again.

#47 Harbour on 06.15.14 at 8:49 pm

#44 Chickenlittle

The only “paradigm” that will shift Devils Advocate is interest rates.

End of story.

#48 Old Man on 06.15.14 at 9:03 pm

The name Darlene has a distinct meaning which is tenderly loved from the Old English ‘dearling’. Mr. Turner has degrees in English literature, so he just made it up.

I should make up an email wondering when I croak? — Garth

#49 Big Brother on 06.15.14 at 9:11 pm

MKULTRA says he saw Smoking Man at his Seneca casino on the stage with Rob Ford tonight. This is not our programming. Rob you must come home for an upgrade .

#50 Mark on 06.15.14 at 9:14 pm

“The seriously inflated housing market bubble here in Canada (and elsewhere) is actually a covert war on the baby boomers. “

Looks more like a war on the young, in favour of the old. The old are selling their housing. The young are being asked to pay the inflated prices and go into long-term debt. Basic demographics of the labour market suggest that the young are going to have a lot of pricing power in terms of their labour going forward, so this is effectively one of the ways of preventing a wholesale transfer of wealth from the old to the young when this happens, as the mortgage rates are likely to rise as well.

Young people who avoid the housing trap are likely to do extremely well. There will be 2 kinds of people, rich renters, and poor owners, in the future.

#51 screwed on 06.15.14 at 9:17 pm

Mortgage debt will be the least of our problems if the economy grounds to a halt due to an oil crisis. I don’t know why the focus is always on real estate and debt.

If a majority of people fails to pay their bills and they can’t afford to put gas in the tank, the banks will hold off on killing the goose that lays their golden eggs.

Governments in the past have diluted money/debt time and again to avoid a collapse and a complete standstill.

#52 Nemesis on 06.15.14 at 9:18 pm

#SmokingManIsK-Pax. #ALittleSomethingForHisMondayMorningCommute.

http://youtu.be/Wf9fBk1YIqc

#FullAudioTrack. #ForPersnicketyPurists.

http://youtu.be/YAgp-BeBnOs

#53 Spectacle on 06.15.14 at 9:18 pm

Great article and great remarks tonight G, thnx.

Regarding #25 pete on 06.15.14 at 7:31 pm
The seriously inflated housing market bubble here in Canada (and elsewhere) is actually a covert war on the baby boomers.

These low mortgage rates are not a mistake, nor are the HELOC’s (home equity lines of credit) promoted by the banks.

The plan is for all of the younger people to be already be saddled with debt and unable to purchase the homes of the baby-boomers when these homes come on the market. This will make the confiscation of the wealth of the baby-boomers a foregone conclusion.

By the end of thebaby-boomers generation most real estate will have reverted back to the banks. Ending private property ownership has always been part of Agenda 21.

My response: Now that was a great summary & poignant.

Pete, thanks for posting about the Agenda-21 connection, & to what is/has been happening to us.

Night all

#54 takla on 06.15.14 at 9:18 pm

I pump the Good stuff,the TC 95 stroker runs cherry on the high test,,,when it rains it the diesel getting me around @1.50 a litre.Speaking of diesel ,prices riseing just what do you think this will do to Canadian business,costs rise across the board,your grocerys/produce/consumer goods/ electronics all move by truck.I suspect your paychecks will not buy what your used to them buying

Slowly but surely inflation is creeping into our daily lives ,the more the basics cost the less we spend further contributing to the failing economy
Geopolitical turmoil is riseing across the board,and I keep getting the feeling that Isreal will stike Iran this summer,God help us if this fuse is lit!

#55 Ret on 06.15.14 at 9:20 pm

http://www.gaspricewatch.com/NY-new-york/Niagara-Falls/gas-prices/page-1/2.htm

Eleven hours ago the US price per US gallon 50 miles from Hamilton was $3.85 at Tops. A US gallon is a shade under 4l. Add in 10% for the $ difference and it looks like $1.08 a liter.

Why is it $1.38-1.41/liter in Hamilton? What’s left of Ontario’s economy will be gone at this rate.

At least Poloz will be happy but for all the wrong reasons. He will finally get his 2% inflation target!

#56 Cow Man on 06.15.14 at 9:22 pm

Sir Garth:

Knowing how self-absorbed some of your readers are it is amazing you can continue. Thank Darlene for caring!

#57 Babblemaster on 06.15.14 at 9:24 pm

“Now, what happens when house prices correct (and they will, trust me)?” – Garth

—————————————————-

What happens is that the Feds will pull all the stops to help those caught with declining house prices.

Obama did. Nothing happened. And he has more money than Steve. — Garth

#58 Happy Renting on 06.15.14 at 9:32 pm

#20 Old Man on 06.15.14 at 7:12 pm
& #46

Hold your horses with the jealousy, you don’t even know if Darlene is your type. :P

#59 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.15.14 at 9:36 pm

#44 Chickenlittle on 06.15.14 at 8:39 pm;

It will take more than a $2.00 per litre price tag for gas to initiate the SHIFT. It’ll be fuel rationing that will be a precursor to that SHIFT to happen. And that will happen in your lifetime but that will merely SHIFT us into back into more regional economies – which could postpone the big economic paradigm SHIFT I’m talking about.

$2.00 a litre for gas is too cheap. We need to stop turning a blind eye to the backstory of our dependence on fossil fuels.

#45 Harbour on 06.15.14 at 8:49 pm;

I remember paying 18.5% interest on our first mortgage. I understand only too well that it is possible. But I also understand that if the big boys let that happen our economy would be so devastatingly crushed that they too would suffer. So they won’t let it play out that way. There is nothing they can do about long term rates as they are set by the bond market…

or is there?

Just like the economic crisis of 2008 big business will always be only too willing to throw whatever resources are necessary to resuscitate life back into the economy. They have too much at stake not to. And it is you who pays for it and you who condones those actions. You may exclude yourself from that crowd as much as you like, the fact telling question is; did you really try to do anything about it? If not, your absence can only be attributed to allowing the old to continue.

And so it will.

SHIFT happens, time and time again.

};-)

#60 Inglorious Investor on 06.15.14 at 9:36 pm

Garth Turner can NEVER die. Only the actors who play him. Oh yeah!!

#61 Retired WI Boomer on 06.15.14 at 9:36 pm

“Paradigm Shifts” can be initiated by a combination of, no a-conflagration of- issues. Fuel spikes, job loss, interest rates, government policies, attitude changes, a whole basket full of things that impact family budgets & aspirations.
They usually happen rather quickly, and aren’t usually seen until they are done. The trouble might be where YOU might be standing when the SHIFT hits the fan.

#62 Chickenlittle on 06.15.14 at 9:43 pm

#45 Harbour:

Im still waiting for DA to give us details on this paradigm shift.

I rent so he would probably have me and my fellow renters working in the mines and the home “owners” running everything….like in the 1927 movie “Metropolis.”

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ToPwAFLJ0eg

#63 -=jwk=- on 06.15.14 at 9:46 pm

@ #45 #44 Chickenlittle

The only “paradigm” that will shift Devils Advocate is interest rates.

End of story.

Yup, just wait until Canadians can lock in for 30 years @ 4% like the amercians circa 2008. THEN the market will really…oh wait. what?

US prime rate in June 2006: 8.25% – start of housing crisis
US prime rate 3 years later – with properties falling in price for 3 solid years Dec 2008: 3.25%

One of two options is possible:
1) house prices are not related to interest rates and interest rates do not have to rise – in fact they can FALL – for house prices to drop
or
2) Correlation between house prices and interest rates: Higher interest rates=higher house prices.

Pick one and stop spreading the interest rate myth.

#64 Chickenlittle on 06.15.14 at 9:47 pm

I should make up an email wondering when I croak? — Garth

You don’t need to make emails like that up. You probably get those on a regular basis.

#65 Sheane Wallace on 06.15.14 at 9:58 pm

It is all by design in North America.

The indebtedness of the newer generations is direct result of government and central bank actions – zero interest rates policies and government mortgage guarantees COMBINED are the reason for the debt.

there are no such mortgage guarantees in the rest of the world.

It is all for the profit of the banks who as we very well know control both US and Ca governments.

These are very different banks from the European banks, in Europe there is still certain limit of robbery as people generally revolt when pressed too much. Here we are sheep deserving what we get.

Both zero interest rates and mortgage guarantees as well as outsourcing is by design.

I don’t envy the younger generation, the one between 10 and 25, they are screwed with no chance of finding decent job except in Alberta. Some of them will never work.

#66 Financial Freedom at 40 on 06.15.14 at 10:03 pm

The higher gasoline prices go… the more popular used hybrids become?

Horniness : 13.9 sec for standing quarter mile when you need to move and 5.6L/100 km when you can use bumper to bumper city driving to coast silently on battery.

Desiring solar panels next… energy efficiency lust ?

#67 Mark on 06.15.14 at 10:09 pm

“Mortgage debt will be the least of our problems if the economy grounds to a halt due to an oil crisis.”

Canada produces more than twice what it actually consumes in oil. So an “oil crisis” is actually a very positive thing for Canada generally.

#68 Pope Nosty666rmVlad the Snugglebombed on 06.15.14 at 10:11 pm

Ogddammit, it’s good listening to Free’s Greatest Hits on utube from 1972. All the albums are there. Beats a ton of today’s hiphop rap, but diff’rent generations. Paul Rogers lives close to Vernon, BC.

#30 brainsail on 06.15.14 at 7:46 pm — “Yep, it hurt today when I filled one of our cars today in central Texas…$3.50 a gallon for premium.” Evidently, you’re not the only one Brainsale — Slight Increase.

Think ISIS is full of brain dead dweebils? Try these.

“There’s zero chance of the Yanks going back into Iraq with boots on the ground.”Correct. They may go in from the air, but as ‘Nam proved, a war cannot be won from the air (unless it’s a nuke war).

Sadaam was nasty and his family worse, but all he asked the UN permission for (and was granted), was to sell Iraq’s oil in Euros, not the petrodollar. A list of some countries that have chosen to side with BRICS, to find alternatives.

Nostradamus Jr. (Dad) was right all along — the US is bankrupting through endless wars — here.

#69 Fleabitten Monkey on 06.15.14 at 10:16 pm

Most of the time I ride my bike. My wife and I share a reliable and fairly economical car called a Mazda. I don’t need to pay premium gas prices. Again, I ask you what percentage of the population drive cars that need the premium stuff at $1.60 (in Toronto) and above elsewhere. If you don’t answer that, I expect you don’t have any credible source to quote from. But the shock value of putting $1.60 and north is priceless, notwithstanding the premium “good stuff” emphasis added.

Does your bike at least have an engine? — Garth

#70 Nemesis on 06.15.14 at 10:17 pm

#AynRandIsAPussy. #Stay&Fight! #PumpPricesShouldBeTheLeastOfYOurWorries. #MeanWhile,SomewhereInThe… #[email protected]

http://youtu.be/zsC2ETsZL0g

[NoteToGT: Just kidding. Makes for GreatCinema, though. WaltKelly AKA Pogo: “We have met the enemy… and he is us.”]

#71 Red Deer Rob on 06.15.14 at 10:25 pm

Garth is the Canadian version of Chuck Norris. He is not afraid of death, death is afraid of him.

#72 Slim on 06.15.14 at 10:37 pm

Gas @$1.60 per litre still cheap compared to what you would pay in Europe.

#73 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.15.14 at 10:40 pm

That paradigm SHIFT I allude to, which is far in the future by the way, will be a most significant game changer. No it will not put you and your fellow renters working in the mines and homeowners running everything. That paradigm SHIFT</cite will be toward a more collaborative society. It is the competitive “scarcity” mentality of our current economic paradigm which causes you concern. That will be the essence of change.
As I said in a previous post;
1. Collaboration yields multiple gains over competition.
2. War is the pinnacle of competition.
This will not happen in our lifetimes, nor that of our children or our grandchildren and probably not in the lives of our great grandchildren but we are moving in that direction. No generation has be so close to it as the Millennial generation. The speed at which we approach the new paradigm is increasing though and that is good.

Think about “collaboration” and think about “competition”. Competition is becoming so yesterday. Competition is so destructive, someone always loses. Even the compromise of a Win/Win outcome pales in comparison to a Collaborative effort where 1+1 can actually = 3 or more!

My business changed completely when I adopted a collaborative attitude and instead of considering others competition considered them partners.

7 Habits of Highly Effective People, read it. If you already have, read it again. And then read the Eighth Habit.

I know I’ll get a lot of rebuke… too many are stuck in the old paradigm of competition. Imagine what we could do with all those dollars spent on professional sports let alone war. There would be no poverty. There would be no homelessness.

We’ll get it someday.

SHIFT happens };-)

#74 Old Man on 06.15.14 at 10:41 pm

#67 Mark – Canada imports lots of oil because of costing and the current figures have been blocked by the government under Caesar. Its now become a secret and is now marked confidential – wow! We the citizens of Canada can no longer access this info on the government site.

#75 HogtownIndebted on 06.15.14 at 10:44 pm

For those of you with little ones, summer camp season is upon us in Toronto, and families are getting ready to send the brats off, the lucky ones to overnight camps so mom and pop can get some serious free time to binge watch House of Cards..

Or, are they?

I was left wondering this the past two weeks, talking to friends and family about camps. Seems like quite a few are cutting way back on this expense this year. One friend of my spouse also works contract work with a number of camps as part of a related business association. She’s been told by her contacts that things are looking weak, lots of unfilled spots compared to recent years, even for camps that specialize in stable upper middle class family type clients. What’s more, her seventeen year old son was to be signed on as a counsellor and just heard Friday that his position has been cancelled, along with a dozen others at one camp, due to under enrolment. (So much for his summer plans – maybe he can work in real estate)

Another family told us of going to a camp open house last week, and hardly anyone showed up in spite of free food and kids activities and decent weather. Hmmm.

Camp can easily cost (at a good private camp) around $600-800 weekly these days, depending on whether it is a local daycamp or out of town overnight.

I am curious if others here have heard or planned similarly.

Is this another sign of tapped out homeowners cutting back on expenses?

#76 Millenial on 06.15.14 at 10:44 pm

Hey Garth,

Today I was at the Sobeys on Dupont, you know, just east of Ossington.

I was a little surprised to see one of those City of Toronto ‘Development Proposal’ signs. They want to do “two 11-storey residential buildings on top of a 2-storey base with retail and office uses.” It’ll be a shame to lose that grocery store for a few years while the development is going on: people need to eat, you know?

I also saw another development proposal a month ago that surprised me too. The Art Shoppe on Yonge just south of Eglinton, yup, more condos!

Keep up the good work Garth.

#77 Andrew Woburn on 06.15.14 at 10:45 pm

If anything happens to our guru, we`ll just say he`s meditating.

“Indian court asked to rule on whether Hindu guru dead or meditating“

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/10860998/Indian-court-asked-to-rule-on-whether-Hindu-guru-dead-or-meditating.html

#78 Mark on 06.15.14 at 11:00 pm

“One of two options is possible:
1) house prices are not related to interest rates and interest rates do not have to rise – in fact they can FALL – for house prices to drop
or
2) Correlation between house prices and interest rates: Higher interest rates=higher house prices.”

You’re missing a 3rd item, and that is, even though interest rates may very well be low, lenders may not actually be willing to lend with such low risk premia against residential RE collateral.

Ever wonder why a credit card charges you 20%/annum, but you can get a home mortgage for 3%/annum? Even though the BoC policy target is only 1%? It is because lenders’ attitudes towards housing-backed lending are far more optimistic than they are towards unsecured credit card lending.

Once you understand the role of risk premia, and even loan availability, you will understand why rates are apparently “low” in the United States, but such “low” rates have not driven a housing recovery.

#79 Mark on 06.15.14 at 11:02 pm

“#67 Mark – Canada imports lots of oil because of costing and the current figures have been blocked by the government under Caesar. Its now become a secret and is now marked confidential – wow! We the citizens of Canada can no longer access this info on the government site.”

Sure, we import oil and refined products where it regionally makes sense. No point in transporting Alberta oil all the way to Newfoundland, when sea-borne oil is available less expensively. But Canada is still, on the balance, a prolific net exporter of oil, hence, an “oil crisis” promises to be extremely beneficial to Canada.

#80 Joe2.0 on 06.15.14 at 11:05 pm

The super computers calculated the outcome of what would happens when the US pulled out of Iraq.

This is no ‘big’ surprise, and the U$ will be back.

#81 Fed-up on 06.15.14 at 11:13 pm

@ #72 Slim on 06.15.14 at 10:37 pm

Gas @$1.60 per litre still cheap compared to what you would pay in Europe.

————————————————————————

Aren’t you sick of that piece of hollow consolation? It could always be worse elsewhere? Most of Europe imports 100% of its oil.

What other oil producing nation pays anywhere near what we pay? That would be a better question.

#82 Old Man on 06.15.14 at 11:15 pm

#79 Mark – show us the latest figures :) I will be waiting.

#83 Retired WI Boomer on 06.15.14 at 11:53 pm

A more ‘Collaborative Society’? Bring it on (again).

Seems way back there in the late 69’s-early 70’s a bunch of us dreamers had these notions, and communal shard living etc. Actually worked for awhile, but somebody always gets greedy…. perhaps environmental degradation, water & food shortages, and a need to proceed will work better for the 4th or 5th generations removed. For us it was unorganized chaos, bad drugs, and a desire to ‘do your own thing’ that might have tripped up things. No smart phones, no internet, just crazed cave dwellers from the VW bugs and Gremlin generations…
(sigh)……

well we seemed to have done ‘OK’ at least we didn’t blow the world up… (yet)

#84 Old Man on 06.15.14 at 11:56 pm

Reuters US Edition June 4, 2014 HEADLINE: Canada crude imports from U.S. nearly double year on year. Look it up and read the rest of the sordid facts. We have no Energy Policy in Canada thanks to the Reformists in Ottawa as in the past decade they are too busy spinning in circles blowing smoke.

#85 SofaKing on 06.16.14 at 12:00 am

Higher interest rates by 2018? You be the judge.

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/jun/15/us-economy-bubble-debt-financial-crisis-corporations?CMP=twt_gu

#86 Cici on 06.16.14 at 12:03 am

Sheesh Garth!…How charming, NOT…there’s no doubt about, Darlene must be a millenial. You should tell her that you’ve got great news for her: you’re not going anywhere and you are going to outlast her by a longshot!

#87 Cici on 06.16.14 at 12:06 am

Today’s must-read articles (Boomers and millenials doing what they do best):

Burning down the house!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2657073/Homeowner-burn-house-teetering-Texas-cliff.html

I spent my $66,000 inheritance on Basically Nothing

http://thebillfold.com/2012/05/i-spent-my-66000-inheritance-on-basically-nothing/

#88 Cici on 06.16.14 at 12:20 am

#72 Slim

What are you talking about? Cars in Europe get at least four times as much mileage. Ever heard of smaller engines and diesel?

#89 Cici on 06.16.14 at 12:22 am

Happy Father’s Day Garth ;-)

Thanks for your blog and for tolerating us!

#90 Teacher's Ass-istant on 06.16.14 at 12:26 am

My goodness, };-) aka Devil’s Anus has snuck back in again after a lengthy ban. Not much has changed with his foolishness. He and all of the other conspiracy theorists have provided me some inspiration though. After reading their ranting I am determined to lose thirty pounds so I can once again fit under my bed where I can hide from all of their prognostications.

These people should all be banned from looking up nonsense on the internet for their own good and referred to mental health proffesionals post haste.

#91 gmc on 06.16.14 at 12:31 am

Is now the time to invest in precious metal, check out this article on the financial times, moody to cut 7 big Canadian banks rating due to Bail-ins
i thought you said it wouldn’t happen
dam those irresponsible, 1 trillion in mortgage CMHC who’s going to pay for that???

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/06/11/moodys-downgrades-outlook-for-some-of-canadian-bank-debt-over-bail-in-regime/

#92 Nemesis on 06.16.14 at 12:35 am

#Доброе утро, товарищи! #Dyptych притчи для трудные времена.

http://youtu.be/5ak917meUoo

http://youtu.be/bxgMeBuAj6w

[NoteToGT: It’s gonna be a BumpyRide. But it EndsWell. Mostly.]

#93 Fortune500 on 06.16.14 at 12:35 am

How weird is that… I was just having the same thought as Darlene before I logged in to my computer this morning. Good to know you are appreciated. Now don’t die … yet.

– An Appreciative Millennial

#94 Kilby on 06.16.14 at 12:50 am

#10 Jack Henning on 06.15.14 at 6:48 pm
H.S.T. of 20% in Ontario, 19% H.S.T. in B.C., Gas at 2.30 a liter by 2021, monthly hydro, electricity bills of $7,000 on average a year in Ontario, B.C. by 2021.

New road tolls in Ontario, B.C., new and higher carbon taxes costing thousands a year.
_____________________________________________

At least the new Champlain Bridge in Montreal won’t have any tolls………

#95 Flawed on 06.16.14 at 1:27 am

“whatever it was $2.2 trillion in US war effort accomplished over a decade”

It made bankers and defense contractors extraordinarily rich. One of these days the people of Earth will figure this out. I know those of us in the bitcoin movement have. Now we just need to confuse the rest of the uneducated that you can’t cheat math – bitcoin.

#96 cynically on 06.16.14 at 2:45 am

To # 65 – Canada’s 5 large banks definitely have great influence, if not control, over Canada’s economy but not so to that extent for American banks because there are far more huge corporations than there are banks and they must have the ears of the government too, and particularly so since the 2008 debacle, whereas Canada doesn’t have the companies of this size to compete with their banks.

#79 – I believe Canada is the only populous country in the western world which produces more oil than it consumes but I guess any government of the day sees more economic advantage for the economy than political advantage for its citizens.

#97 Nemesis on 06.16.14 at 2:46 am

#MeanWhile,BackAtLompoc’sFaveSuperMercado. #TheInterLopersAreRunningRiotOnTheAncienRegime.

http://youtu.be/UyH0Zh9_vHE

It ends well.

#98 Roland on 06.16.14 at 3:05 am

Relax, everybody.

I read today in the Financial Times:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d9dfad02-f462-11e3-a143-00144feabdc0.html

‘“A cluster of central banking investors has become major players on world equity markets,” says a report to be published this week by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (Omfif), a central bank research and advisory group. The trend “could potentially contribute to overheated asset prices”, it warns.’

That means we can all be bullish unto armageddon, since our glorious central banks can buy stocks simply by pressing Ctrl-P.

So who needs price discovery? What’s political risk? What’s a business cycle? Who cares? Macroeconomics is so easy!

Let the world burn. Dow 30,000 here we come, baby.

Ownership is everything. The central bank has openly pledged to make good your losses.

Workership is nothing. You cannot possibly sell enough of your time and effort to compete with the money creation of the central banks.

Owners’ properties will be worth more and more, while the workers will have nothing but debts.

Every time a central banker “eases” monetary policy, the whip cracks.

#99 Tony on 06.16.14 at 4:01 am

Re: #9 Martuzzi on 06.15.14 at 6:45 pm

I’ll be the first to say we’ll see 40 dollar oil before we see 140 dollar oil in the future.

#100 rob in munich on 06.16.14 at 6:39 am

Garth makes two of us, read your blog everyday! Matter of fact just closed on my 2nd and 3rd rental properties, all cash flow positive, while renting in a bloody expensive city to buy in Munich

#101 Uh Oh Canada on 06.16.14 at 6:58 am

Home prices here in Montreal are dropping. Just checked MLS this morning. It’s only been a month and some prices have dropped 20k. Can you imagine?

Garth, please don’t die. We need you as the voice in the blogger wilderness, crying ‘sell before the housing bubble pops.’ We also need you to prophesy as to when to buy.

#102 TO Renter on 06.16.14 at 7:04 am

RE #75 HogtownIndebted
Kids camp enrollment as an early economic indicator families are tapped out? Will vouch for the trend. Many hyped a special registration day, come in person, line-up or call at 7 am, don’t miss out etc and there are still lots of spots months later. Except ROM camp, that one is still way too popular. First time a camp was cancelled on us (Mad Science) sending us scrambling. Now the discounts and recommend-a-friend are sprouting up.
We’ve been out of the private school circuit for a year but there seemed to be concerns there too. Netflix is watching the kids this summer?

#103 Old Man on 06.16.14 at 7:37 am

Why is it that the oil from the west is sold to USA who refine it and sell it back to the Province of Ontario? It appears to me a shell game is taking place, and we in the Province of Ontario are being ripped off.

#104 The real Kip on 06.16.14 at 7:53 am

You don’t think the Americans will be back in Iraq? Dream on! You already noted over 2-trillion in war costs. Add on over 4,500 coalition war dead, many more wounded and that’s just on our side. All that effort only to have a bunch of ragtag Al Qaeda castaways blow a hole in American foreign policy in a matter of a few days.

America can’t afford to stay in Iraq nor can they afford to leave. Your shale oil miracle myth can’t supply the US, bail out Europe and Ukraine and make up for lost Iraqi production. Mr. Obama would be wise to reconsider his position on Keystone XL.

#105 TurnerNation on 06.16.14 at 8:33 am

Some of yesterday’s later posters get it. They are economically bombing First World Countries and bombing 2nd and 3rd World ones.
All the while mind controlling us and dangling false hope, see 50 years of “Middle east peace process”, “1m new jobs”.

Take anything they say and flip it backwards for the truth. War of Terror. Lots of bread and circuses for us here on the lowest level of the pyramid.

Oil – of course. The most profitable businesses in the world are always Oil, Drugs, Weapons and Human Trafficking.

Reading our newz we simply see the word Islamist, or Extremist, and then it’s like All your oil belong to us.
Too easy. People fight only over two things: sex and money. The winner gets to breed and eat. History has this proven.

Which is why in recent wars they make great effort to use WMD on civillians and cities (isn’t the idea of Battlefields so quaint and outdated? Nope, our cities are their targets) which target reproduction: Agent Orange is still having effect in SE Asia, and in the middle east it’s depleted uranium.
Now do you still trust our masters?

But the veil is lifting, this is the good news. Best time to be living in, imo, for those who wish to see.

#106 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 06.16.14 at 8:38 am

#81 Fed up

Norway produces an awful lot of oil and gas.

http://www.bloomberg.com/visual-data/best-and-worst/highest-gas-prices-countries

#107 Old Man on 06.16.14 at 8:41 am

Todays headline in the Financial Post states Keystone, Northern Gateway pipeline pressure mounts as oil bottleneck costs economy $50 million a day. These two pipelines as a means to an end will be sold into foreign markets. Who benefits? Well it can’t be Canada as a whole, but rather Alberta as the main source. The Province of Alberta and the oil corporations will benefit at the expense of the rest of Canada. No? Caesar is rigging the system and selling out our nation step by step. Yes?

#108 Jonathan on 06.16.14 at 8:49 am

A new definition is on the way.

“Fracking”

Meaning: What happened to the CPC in 2015.

There is no way around political losses for the neocon Harperites, whether they say yes, or no, or try to kick the can down the field (a la Obama, which will only make them seem weak to their supporters and magnify the debate)

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/the-political-stakes-in-the-enbridge-northern-gateway-pipeline-decision-1.2669905

The decision is due now, this week, and it will unravel conservative support whatever is done.

No way will this party win 45 seats in AB and BC next year after this storm. Combine that with the unrepeatable fluke of them winning 71 Ontario seats last time, and just how does the Hudak-mimicking CPC possible see itself getting back to power?

BC voters also have the option of an HST-style referendum on all this, don’t forget.

Harper? CPC?

You are so fracked.

#109 Shawn on 06.16.14 at 8:59 am

Canada has No Energy Policy?

Old Man at 84 says:

We have no Energy Policy in Canada

******************************************
That could be because 1. resources in the ground are provincially owned controlled (until sold or licensed) and not federally controlled. and 2. We don’t have a (totally) centrally planned economy (yet).

Do be careful what you ask for.

Bring back the National Energy Program anyone?

#110 Old Man on 06.16.14 at 9:01 am

Is the rest of Canada indirectly subsidizing the Province of Alberta now and in the future if Caesar gets his way? Caesar’s political base of reformists live in Alberta so its now clear is it not. These pipelines probably will never be built, but always focus on the ‘intent’ when you vote in the next Federal Election or you can kiss Canada goodbye. Its time to throw these haters under the bus.

#111 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.16.14 at 9:15 am

@ #109 Shawn on 06.16.14 at 8:59 am

Do be careful what you ask for.

Bring back the National Energy Program anyone?
——————————————

No one wants the Government trying to run/control an energy business (check out how well they run healthcare, hydro, etc. etc.), but why not diversify Canada’s assets by taking 5% or 10% or whatever from these resources and put that into other investments?

Is anyone in Norway complaining that they have healthcare and retirement funded to infinity for all citizens?

#112 45north on 06.16.14 at 9:35 am

what happens when house prices correct (and they will, trust me)

I’ve missed something rather obvious. Mark Hanson writes about the end of US stimulus on the US housing market. He says that TWIST/QE is ending and as a result the US market is going to drop off. Well TWIST (means lower interest rates ) and QE (printing money) is ending in Canada too. TotalInvestor from his link points out the divergence between the US and Canadian markets. Garth has covered this too. The very best we can hope for would be that the gentle upward slope that we have enjoyed would be followed by a gentle downward slope – very best is not most probable.

#113 Daisy Mae on 06.16.14 at 9:45 am

#56 Cow Man: “Thank Darlene for caring!”

DARLENE: “Let’s say you did die. Do you have any recommendations for continued reading that is at all sane?”

*****************

I think Darlene is more concerned about Garths’ “recommendations for continued reading”… LOL

#114 Bubblicious on 06.16.14 at 9:45 am

Gas going uppa, uppa, uppa.
Whenever I want to know what is really happening in the Middle East I read what this guy has to say.
http://ericmargolis.com/2014/06/the-allmighty-mess-in-iraq/

#115 Future Expatriate on 06.16.14 at 9:51 am

Ah Darlene… reminds me of the call Al Gore got on that November night long ago in 2000 when an anonymous voice asked him “How are your kids?”. Right before he conceded. To 9-11.

#116 Ralph Cramdown on 06.16.14 at 9:57 am

#109 Shawn — “Bring back the National Energy Program anyone?”

Do you want my answer as a Canadian nationalist, or an oilpatch shareholder?

There’s no denying that Norway has run its oil fund much, much better than the Alberta Heritage Savings Fund, which has already spent twice its current value and is used by the Alberta Government like poor people use TFSAs — as a short term piggy bank rather than a long term tool for wealth building and inflation control.

But hey, as a shareholder, I say keep pumping and keep those royalty rates low!

#110 Old Man — “Is the rest of Canada indirectly subsidizing the Province of Alberta now and in the future if Caesar gets his way?”

If Alberta had its own currency, that currency would be higher and more volatile.

I wonder if Harper ever compares his pipeline ambitions with Sir John A.’s little railroad project?

#117 4 AM Sunrise on 06.16.14 at 10:07 am

Here’s another economic indicator for the pile: grocery inventories are high. Sure, some of it is seasonal, but I notice a build over the last couple of months. Lots of buy-one-get-one deals, discounts if you buy 2 or more, and a $1 off coupon one month turning into a $2-off-if-you-buy-2 the next month.

#118 Blithe Barrington on 06.16.14 at 10:07 am

@Turner Nation

That Neanderthalolic entity that makes habitual ingresses and visits hereabouts, spewing his acrimony, has made me a diacetylmorphine addict character in his underprivileged
idea of what fiction is.

 
Altho flattering, it’s in poor taste.

#119 april on 06.16.14 at 10:10 am

People, stop writing about Garth dying. For one thing he’s too young to die of old age. He only broke a bone recently.

#120 DM in C on 06.16.14 at 10:16 am

};-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 06.15.14 at 8:33 pm
DELETED

Back and back to his old tricks and themes again — I thought he was banned for life, Garth. He’s tedious, boring, smug and condescending. Leopards, you know.

#121 Doug in London on 06.16.14 at 10:18 am

@Old Man, post #103:
That’s what Enbridge’s Pipeline #9 (Sarnia to Westover, near Hamilton, and points beyond) and TransCanada’s Energy East Pipeline are all about. However, don’t expect it to bring any discounts in the price at the pumps.

#122 Daisy Mae on 06.16.14 at 10:23 am

#105 TurnerNation: “People fight only over two things: sex and money.”

*****************

I thought it was POWER and GREED….

#123 SofaKing on 06.16.14 at 10:25 am

Bet you $95\bl oil that the Iraq/Isis situation will be under control soon.
The wars the US is fighting in the mid-east has more to do with privateers and contract killers than it does with using actual troops.

#124 Old Man on 06.16.14 at 10:26 am

#121 Doug in London – am still holding 2000 shares in ENF which I bought for a song during the crash.

#125 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.16.14 at 10:29 am

#83 Retired WI Boomer on 06.15.14 at 11:53 pm

Yes and those then in the 70’s were beginning steps in the right direction. The Millennials have their own more sophisticated spin on that movement, still not near there yet but getting closer. As the Hippies of the 70’s had, in retrospect, a crude construct of it so to in the future will the Millennials be seen as having a crude construct of that future social paradigm. We are evolving as a species, physically, mentally and socially.

#90 Teacher’s Ass-istant on 06.16.14 at 12:26 am

First let me make it clear that I did not “sneak” back in.
Second, I am no conspiracy theorist. The world is the way it is. We live by the Golden Rule; Those who have the gold make the rules. Economics is a social science with a smattering of math to give it an obscurity that would baffle most but it all comes down to supply and demand in the end. For example; Who sets housing prices? Not the Seller and not their REALTOR®. It is buyers who set prices by way of their demand for the product and this is where the sociology comes to play along with a good helping of psychology (house horniness and irrational exuberance).

Too many play the blame game when it is they themselves who are to blame. The reason they can’t afford a house is the think the market should follow their wishes not that of those who actually are “IN” the market.

SHIFT happens. Most don’t get it though. Life is easy once you do, real easy. Collaborate instead of compete and you will find there is plenty to go around. I work less and have more because I collaborate toward a mutual success with what others would consider my competition.

Seriously, I’m just trying to provide some valuable information albeit too often considered self-serving rhetoric. If you listen I am sure you will find some valuable nuggets in my words. Admittedly I do, from time to time, have little patience for some of the boneheads who just don’t get it and twist my words to be something other than they were intended.

#126 SofaKing on 06.16.14 at 10:30 am

Eventhough the US did move its manufacturing base over to China in the last 3 decades, it has done a great job of producing countless serial killers.

#127 Iconoclast on 06.16.14 at 10:42 am

The real “Good Stuff” is much more than $1.60/litre.
Lagavulin Distillers Edition: $200/litre (if you can find it) at the LCBO.
Might even be worth it…

#128 Godth on 06.16.14 at 10:47 am

#98 Roland

“Cluster Of Central Banks” Have Secretly Invested $29 Trillion In The Market
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-15/cluster-central-banks-have-secretly-invested-29-trillion-market

Why are we being told about this? …now.

#129 Cold Hard Facts on 06.16.14 at 10:56 am

In all honesty, when did you start calling the housing top?

Quite a while ago, but given the information, it probably made sense. Bubble tops are hard to call.

The top is already in the rear view mirror in many markets. Patience. Your day will come. — Garth

#130 Jonathan on 06.16.14 at 11:02 am

Why the media is getting harder to trust – look at these bits on what has been going on at the Globe.

In bargaining right now, management is demanding their “journalists” must write branded content. (No, not just those writing about RE, lol)

Also, note how the Globe endorsement of Tim Hudak appears to have been fraudulent, to support the corporate interests of the Thomson family.

http://canadalandshow.com/article/leaked-memo-confirms-globe-and-mail-wants-journalists-write-advertorials

http://canadalandshow.com/article/source-globe-editorial-board-endorsed-wynne-liberals-was-overruled

Robyn Doolittle must be so happy she left the Toronto Star for this great organization.

#131 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.16.14 at 11:30 am

Jim Carrey’s Advice on Life Can Inspire Us All

#132 Slim on 06.16.14 at 11:35 am

‘Almost 22 percent of American children under age 18 lived in poverty in 2012; for those under age five, it’s more than 25 percent. Almost 1 in 10 live in extreme poverty.

It’s system is trending toward asking kids (and the disabled, and the elderly) to go to hell if they’re hungry. Many are already there.’

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/06/nine-questions-us-poverty-answered

#133 Old Man on 06.16.14 at 11:37 am

#129 Jonathan – its the Ministry of Truth as the media sold out years ago with a few exceptions. The medium is the message, and those that control the message alter your decision process to act and think in a certain way.

#134 chickenlittle on 06.16.14 at 11:50 am

#75 Hog Town Indebted:

If someone kept sending their dog to “daycare” or a kennel people would wonder why they got a dog in the first place.

Kids are another story it seems. I guess no one needs to spend time with their kids anymore bc someone else will raise them. All I see it parents who pawn off their kids.

I need to quit daycare. Its making me bitter and cynical.

#135 Fed-up on 06.16.14 at 11:55 am

@#106 rosie “moving forward” in the knowledge that, “this won’t end well” on 06.16.14 at 8:38 am
——————————————————————————-

Good for you Rosie, you found 1. We may want to mention that Norway has the highest standard of living in the world along with free university tuition, free dental care for children under 18 and seniors, free therapeutic care along with mostly free prescriptions.

#136 Ralph Cramdown on 06.16.14 at 11:57 am

#129 Jonathan — “Also, note how the Globe endorsement of Tim Hudak appears to have been fraudulent, to support the corporate interests of the Thomson family.”

How young and naive do you have to be to think that the newspaper owner, via the publisher, would not have the last word on major political endorsements? It isn’t hard news, it’s an opinion. This is one of the perquisites of owning a newspaper.

Besides, it is quite possible that the publisher did this just to save his masthead the embarrassment of endorsing a minority government, before an election, in a first-past-the-post system. Who exactly would they have been advising their readers to mark the ‘x’ beside? I’d have fired the lot of them on the spot, and thrown my still-smouldering cigar butt at the retreating rear of the last one out of my office.

#137 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.16.14 at 12:00 pm

#129 Cold Hard Facts on 06.16.14 at 10:56 am
In all honesty, when did you start calling the housing top?

Quite a while ago, but given the information, it probably made sense. Bubble tops are hard to call.

The top is already in the rear view mirror in many markets. Patience. Your day will come. — Garth

In many more the top is ahead. In Kelowna, for example, unit sales volumes are up over 40% year over year to date. Price ALWAYS follows volume with about a six month delay. The exuberance in this marketplace is becoming so thick you need to take a shower to regain a level head.

Thing about SHIFTS is they never claw back on a downturn so much as they gained on the way up. Will we peak and drop back? But of course – it is as inevitable as the cycles of the seasons. But for first time buyers this, right now today, might be their best opportunity to get into the market ride it up and then back down again and still be then in five years’ time be way ahead of where they are today.

Of course there are no guarantees, especially for those who speculate. Real estate is a long term hold and lifestyle.

SHIFT happens and Pigs get slaughtered. };-)

#138 Jonathan on 06.16.14 at 12:43 pm

#136 Ralph Cramdown

Thanks for calling me young and naive, Ralph – makes me feel like a whippersnapper again.

You might want to check your facts first, though.

The Globe actually DID endorse a minority government in this whole thing.

“On balance, in our imperfect world, we choose the Progressive Conservative Party – but kept on the short leash of a minority government.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/editorials/ontario-election-part-4-for-a-conservative-minority/article19047636/

The idea of an editorial board (unanimously, apparently) saying one thing and then being overruled is quite a stretch from what you suggest. Combine that with the new ‘advertorial’ approaches, and it means that much more.

On the flip side, per Mr. Piketty, I am glad that these kinds of episodes draw back the curtains more and more on how economic elites protect themselves, and will make it much easier for ordinary people to retract themselves from msm to better identify and defend their own interests.

When you realize how toothless is the integrity of even good journalists in these settings, and how much more contaminated by conflicts of interest the news enterprise becomes week by week, it’s much easier to disengage. When people look into their own wallets and debt statements to see even more connections, that can become a powerful momentum for change.

This is quite different from the gilded age of newspaper barons not even pretending to have authentic editorial processes.

#139 AK on 06.16.14 at 1:08 pm

“There’s zero chance of the Yanks going back into Iraq with boots on the ground.”
====================================
Right. :-)

The Marines are on their way. Whether they will hit the ground or not, remains to be seen.

#140 TnT on 06.16.14 at 1:35 pm

This is one of the best broken record articles ever!

http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2005-04-10/after-the-housing-boom

USA 2005

This beautiful story pulls in immigration, boomers, cheap rates and so on…

This article can be re-posted in Canada today all one would need is to change the place names.

Get liquid people….

#141 Smoking Man on 06.16.14 at 2:04 pm

#136 Ralph Cramdown on 06.16.14 at 11:57 am

WhoDak was a liberal insurgent, he had a secret agenda, give a majority to the commies…

No one is that stupid, “We are firing 100 thousand people. “

#142 Ralph Cramdown on 06.16.14 at 2:04 pm

#138 Jonathan — “The idea of an editorial board (unanimously, apparently) saying one thing and then being overruled is quite a stretch from what you suggest.”

If it’s a stretch, it’s because the members of the editorial board are generally picked because their views are broadly sympatico with ownership’s. They only get overruled if they get out of line.

Here’s Tim Harper, national affairs columnist at The Star: “No one from management has ever asked for my views before they endorse a political leader. Nor should they. More importantly, no one from management has ever asked me to tailor a column to fit an editorial view.

MANAGEMENT. News is news and signed columns are there as long as the readership likes (or hates) them, but unsigned editorials are always the Publisher’s prerogative.

This is quite different from the gilded age of newspaper barons not even pretending to have authentic editorial processes.

I disagree. The theory of radio and TV news was that, as it occupied scarce public spectrum, it had an obligation to be somewhat unbiased and non-partisan. But anyone can start a newspaper. We used to be limited by the number of trees we could grow, but not it’s all on the intertubes; worldwide distribution is very close to free.

#143 Ralph Cramdown on 06.16.14 at 2:05 pm

Fixed link: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/06/10/collision_between_union_rights_and_journalistic_independence_tim_harper.html

#144 Dominoes Lining Up on 06.16.14 at 2:09 pm

#140 TnT

Love that article, especially how it says things will “rust not bust”.

That is exactly, exactly, exactly the kind of crap real estate floggers have been deluding themselves about here.

Good find.

#145 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 06.16.14 at 2:14 pm

#127 Iconoclast on 06.16.14 at 10:42 am

The real “Good Stuff” is much more than $1.60/litre.
Lagavulin Distillers Edition: $200/litre (if you can find it) at the LCBO.
Might even be worth it…
_______________________________________________
Agreed this is worth the $200 / liter price.

#146 Old Man on 06.16.14 at 2:22 pm

#139 AK – the Marines will not hit the ground because they are tired and would rather be watching movies. I will tell you who has officially entered Iraq to kill the trouble makers as 2000 military warriors from Iran have entered into battle.

#147 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.16.14 at 2:25 pm

#140 TnT on 06.16.14 at 1:35 pm

I could be wrong but I suspect you might be off a tad in your projections. Certainly there will come a day that article ( http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2005-04-10/after-the-housing-boom ) has as much applicability as it did when published in 2005 but I don’t think for a couple years yet.

We are just pulling out of the hangover from the 2008 financial crisis hardly seems we could falter once again so close on the heels of it.

As I mentioned earlier, here in Kelowna, unit sales volumes are up over 40% year over year to date. Price ALWAYS follows volume (supply & demand) with about a six month delay. I see rising prices on the horizon and I see a healthy rebound for the next two or three years and then an overshoot which will subsequently be clawed back. So as that article was published in 2005 and all Hell };-) broke loose in 2008 but in between there were AWESOME equity gains that were never completely clawed back.

#148 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.16.14 at 2:42 pm

#140 TnT on 06.16.14 at 1:35 pm

So what I am saying TnT is, while I tend to agree with you, seeing as it is entirely consistent with my SHIFT premise, There was a good 42 months between when that article was published in April of 2005 and October 2008 when the SHIFT hit the fan. And please let me repeat that between those dates there were SUBSTANTIAL equity gains that were not nearly wiped out by claw back Crisis of 2008.

As was then, this may be a most opportune time to get into the market for the long term building a good gain at the get go.

Of course some will try the speculative thing but you know how that goes;

Timing has a lot to do with the outcome of a good rain dance.

SHIFT happens, pigs get slaughtered.

};-)

#149 Millenial on 06.16.14 at 2:51 pm

Hey Garth,
How many hits does your blog get a day?

#150 High Plains Drifter on 06.16.14 at 2:53 pm

When some of you think Alberta, you should think of it as independent in the same way you would think of P.E.I. as independent, right Ontario. Surely after watching a lifetime of politics, one must admit a bit of colonial involvement.

#151 Toronto_CA on 06.16.14 at 3:01 pm

http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/16/news/economy/imf-us-forecast/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Welp, so much for the US economy saving the Canadian economy anytime soon? Another 2% growth year predicted for the US by mulitple sources, I doubt Canadian growth will beat the US economy with our unemployment going in the wrong direction…

Our personal debt growth is going to be more than 2% this year, that’s for sure.

#152 ozy - it's accelarating to 3 million per Detached in Toronto on 06.16.14 at 3:09 pm

as I’ve said last week, the neo-global-collonization of assets it’s accelarating its “success” – toward 3 million per SFD in Toronto, currently is 1 mil, but the trend is picking up speed.

once it reaches 3 mil next summer, it’s game over, values back to 750000 (or year 2011 prices). Make sure you have 2 or more properties bought prior to 2011, sell one or more and retire in peace. DO NOT SELL WHILE PRICE ITS STILL GALLOPING HIGH. AND OIL TOO. STOCKS WILL CRASH HARD, POSSIBLY. too bad your friends will have to work double-shifts – you’ll have to find some college girls for fun…

#153 Ralph Cramdown on 06.16.14 at 3:15 pm

#141 Smoking Man — “WhoDak was a liberal insurgent, he had a secret agenda, give a majority to the commies…”

Now I’m going to give you a nearly-complete list of Ontario PC leaders going back to 1985, and you tell me which ones were NOT secret insurgents:
– Frank Miller
– Larry Grossman
– Andy Brandt
– Ernie Eves
– John Tory
– Bob Runciman
– Tim Hudak

Any questions?

#154 Jonathan on 06.16.14 at 3:41 pm

#132 Ralph

Well, Ralph you certainly demonstrate that confirmation bias is alive and well.

You have shown yourself capable of looking assiduously for support for your own position, but it would have better suited you to look 360 degrees to better understand this actual particular issue.

Tim Harper is not on the Star’s editorial board. His comments reflect those of regular journalists and add nothing to the discussion I started.

These people ARE on that board – note their mandate and responsibilities listed at the top of the page.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/2011/06/16/meet_the_stars_editorial_board.html

What the Globe offers, sadly in contrast, is a chimera. Its editorial board is SUPPOSED to offer similar control and direction over editorial content, but has proven itself mere window dressing in this case, based on what other media are considering reliable sources. (This has NOT happened at the Star in cases of political endorsements in particular – go find a case)

You’ve raised the straw man of broadcast news. Not needed or relevant, and weak argumentative technique, so I will ignore that. (You sure you’re not Smoking Man with the spell check switched on?)

The issue here exists in the clash between what the Globe purports its editorial board to be and do, and what it appears has actually happened.

If the Globe wants to operate without the burden or expectation of detached, sober second thought in its editorial oversight, that is its right – just don’t pretend to be otherwise.

That is hypocrisy and lack of integrity most unbefitting what the paper claims to be.

Do your due diligence next time, Ralph, before getting back to me, thanks.

#155 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 06.16.14 at 3:56 pm

#153 Ralph Cramdown on 06.16.14 at 3:15 pm
#141 Smoking Man — “WhoDak was a liberal insurgent, he had a secret agenda, give a majority to the commies…”

Now I’m going to give you a nearly-complete list of Ontario PC leaders going back to 1985, and you tell me which ones were NOT secret insurgents:
– Frank Miller
– Larry Grossman
– Andy Brandt
– Ernie Eves
– John Tory
– Bob Runciman
– Tim Hudak
Any questions?
_________________________________________

Oh my god another consiparcy theory. Hey Ralph you forgot the best one to mess us up. William B Davis.

#156 TurnerNation on 06.16.14 at 4:00 pm

Tell Darlene, with revulsion, Smoking man’s blog is the backup one if this pathetic blog goes dark.

#157 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 06.16.14 at 4:00 pm

#153 Ralph Cramdown on 06.16.14 at 3:15 pm
Oh Spadina how I miss you! thanks Bill.

#158 Same story since 2007 on 06.16.14 at 4:06 pm

If you need a home , go buy in your budget. Don’t bid or over extend.
You can wait until to have your desired down payment.
Waiting for home prices to fall before you buy is foolishness.
Either it will be expensive or same as today after a small fall.
Check US market. Its back to 2007 levels even after the worst crisis since 1930’s.

Wrong. US prices fell an average of 32% and are still 20% below 2006 levels. — Garth

#159 chapter 9 on 06.16.14 at 4:07 pm

#109 Shawn
“Bring back the National Energy Program anyone”
That is a great idea! Let’s bankrupt the only province in this country that provides billions in transfer payments to the have not provinces that continue to spend and borrow to further advance their cradle to grave thinking. Add in the ten’s of thousands of workers laid off across this country and the hundreds of millions in lost tax revenue to all three levels of government. Kill the goose that lays the golden egg awesome!!

#160 -=jwk=- on 06.16.14 at 4:20 pm

@#78 Mark – I know. I was posting to the “rates have to come down” crowd. I was IN the USA when the SHTF (and is started early 2006 DA, by October 2008 it was a disaster)

When Fannie and Freddie stopped lending, the party was over. Interest rates were irrelevant then, and will be up here. CMHC just needs to decide how to wind down politely…

#161 Ralph Cramdown on 06.16.14 at 4:48 pm

#154 Jonathan — “The issue here exists in the clash between what the Globe purports its editorial board to be and do, and what it appears has actually happened.”

I think I’ve figured out the misunderstanding here. You think that some newspapers have editorial boards which are deferred to by the editor, and editors which are deferred to by the publisher. I’m sorry if you got that impression, but it just ain’t true. Newspapers love to report on the economic and personnel tribulations of their rivals, so the truth is out there.

When an unsigned editorial appears in a newspaper, it represents the opinion of the owners, unless it is on a matter so trivial that the owners have no opinion.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Opinion_(book)

There are some people who don’t have the time or bandwidth to decide who to vote for by themselves, but who are willing to be told how to vote by a trusted news source. You bet your sweet ass that those people are going to be told who to vote for by the millionaire or billionaire at the top, not by the consensus of former bureau chiefs of Elbonia and Lower Slobovia who write the editorials on police shootings. Sorry if you ever thought otherwise.

#162 Happy Renting on 06.16.14 at 4:51 pm

#87 Cici on 06.16.14 at 12:06 am

Re: blowing inheritance

Well, reading that made me want to vomit. I guess that’s why there are successful people in this world, then everyone else that acts like that.

#163 Ralph Cramdown on 06.16.14 at 5:04 pm

#155 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol — “Hey Ralph you forgot the best one to mess us up. William B Davis.”

He was a bit before my time, as I was living in Northwestern Ontario and, through a quirk of local CBC repeater programming, grew up knowing far more about Winnipeg and Manitoba politics and issues than about Bill’s Big Blue Machine. But I understand he was competent, well liked, able to build a broad consensus and built a solid party election machine.

I also left off Mike Harris. Like him or hate him, he was an effective politician who likewise built a machine and a mandate, and wielded it.

The ones on my list were ineffectual, unelectable, placeholders, uncharismatic (check all that apply). I expect the next one will be more of the same, as the party has so atrophied that anyone of substance is either in Ottawa already and happier there, or wouldn’t give up their day job for it.

#164 Spaccone on 06.16.14 at 5:13 pm

I’m in a Mediterranean European country right now…if I had bought into a McMansion or a few condos in Toronto/the GTA because mamma said they’re good “investments” and real estate always goes up (and would be a good status symbol for the spoiled princesses…but she doesn’t say that) I would have massive handcuffs and a big timesuck on me without even being married.

No, instead I have a liquid, diversified portfolio appreciating and paying me good money (more than I make in my part-time job). I’m at the twilight of my 30s, part of that declining marriage statistic that Garth recently mentioned, and every year that I travel to S. America or Europe, Toronto/Ontario/Canada becomes less appealing and a harder sell for me. Not to mention the feeling in the pit of my stomach that I’ve been shortchanged in life growing up in this overgrown furtrading post.

If you live in Toronto, and especially in the soulless suburbs…you are really shortchanged as a man. Yes, there are great job and stability opportunities, low crime, relatively little/no climate or tectonic disasters or risk…but there is just way, way more to it than living in a crypt in the sky or a huge comfortable crypt in a deathly quiet and dull street in the GTA. I feel bad for Toronto; I think it’s on a good path, but it won’t reach what I’m looking for for several generations, or what I can get elsewhere right now.

I think Canada should be careful, it’s known that at a certain point we will need immigration for the population to grow…but it’s taken for granted that people will want to come here in the first place once that time rolls around.

#165 devore on 06.16.14 at 5:21 pm

#67 Mark

Canada produces more than twice what it actually consumes in oil. So an “oil crisis” is actually a very positive thing for Canada generally.

The average Canadian, even the average Calgarian, hardly benefit from higher oil prices. Less than 10% of our economy depends on oil production?

On the other hand, those who own profitable corporations involved in the field might do well, but that is hardly restricted to Canadians.

#166 Sean on 06.16.14 at 5:24 pm

I don’t envy the younger generation, the one between 10 and 25, they are screwed with no chance of finding decent job except in Alberta. Some of them will never work.

———

Definitely today’s winner.. predicting that today’s 10 year old will never find work.. lol! Now that is a grim view!

#167 derek on 06.16.14 at 5:27 pm

Obama did. Nothing happened. And he has more money than Steve. — Garth

Yet RE in San Francisco and NYC are red hot. Akin to Vancouver and Toronto. If it didn’t crash or correct big time in 2009 it ain’t going to happen. Your call for a correction is in the rear view mirror indeed.

Van is not SF. The GTA is not NY. And prices certainly did correct in almost all US cities. Better to compare 604 with Seattle and 416 with Chicago. Far more realistic. — Garth

#168 LaughingCon on 06.16.14 at 5:31 pm

Joe Fontana and that great Liberal Paul Martin some 20+
years ago:

http://www.urbancentre.utoronto.ca/pdfs/home/Finding_Room_1990_by_Paul_M.pdf

#169 devore on 06.16.14 at 5:54 pm

#81 Fed-up

Aren’t you sick of that piece of hollow consolation? It could always be worse elsewhere? Most of Europe imports 100% of its oil.

Most of Europeans also don’t have a 2 hour daily car commute. You can drive through a good chunk of your average European country in the time it takes Joe Blow to punch in the clock after eating his Cheerios.

#170 Toronto_CA on 06.16.14 at 6:10 pm

#169 Rexx Rock on 06.16.14 at 5:33 pm
“It all shows the Canadian economy is still going strong.”

A strong economy does not need 1% overnight interest rates to keep it alive. Ergo, this is not a strong economy.

#171 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 06.16.14 at 6:13 pm

It’s all good. We’er here to help all Canadians.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/cmhcs-goal-for-housing-market-is-stability-not-growth/article19189544/

#172 aaron on 06.16.14 at 6:41 pm

You said boomers are cash poor yesterday? Yah right.

http://www.torontolife.com/informer/toronto-real-estate/2014/06/16/sale-of-the-week-39-chatfield-drive/

One couple buying one house proves what? You’re impressionable? — Garth

#173 please Mr D.A. on 06.16.14 at 7:12 pm

Hey there Devil’s Advocate, I wish I could say I missed you but that wouldn’t be true. Really did think you were “gone forever”.

Not sure what sort of payola or pleading convinced Garth to let you resume posting, and it’s none of my business.

But a couple of simple requests;

1) can you post just a few times a day instead of spamming us?
2) can you drop that stupid SHIFT theme? Obviously you’re in love with it, maybe you heard it in a TED talk or read it in Fast Company. But it is lame-o. “SHIFT happens”. Ooooh, I get it. You are so clever. (insert snoring sound here)

peace out

#174 Daisy Mae on 06.16.14 at 8:57 pm

#134 Chickenlittle: “…Kids are another story it seems. I guess no one needs to spend time with their kids anymore bc someone else will raise them. All I see it parents who pawn off their kids.

I need to quit daycare. Its making me bitter and cynical.”

******************

Don’t let it, Chickenlittle. It’s not your fault. It IS sad…but it’s not your fault.

#175 Daisy Mae on 06.16.14 at 9:01 pm

#137 DA: “SHIFT happens and Pigs get slaughtered. };-)”

****************

Would you like to give ‘SHIFT’ a rest?

#176 Jonathan on 06.16.14 at 9:04 pm

#161 Ralph

Oh Ralph, you are kind of sad, really. Once again, no diligence to check what I have said or find facts to dispute it.

No, you are wrong. And intellectually lazy and self-satisfied too.

Do you know any of the journalists involved with those papers? I do, and can confirm that what I have said is corroborated.

And you cite a…wait for it….Wikipedia entry about a 90 year old text.

On the brighter side, your intransigence and denial suggest you are still pretty lively, for a 103 year old.

You do fit your name, though.

Definition:

cram down

verb (used with object), crammed, cram·ming.

1. to fill (something – like your lamely structured arguments) by force with more than it can easily hold.

2. to force or stuff (usually followed by into, down, etc.). one bad idea of yours onto another

3. to fill with or as with an excessive amount (of bs)

4. Archaic. to tell lies to. (particular appropriate)

Ralph, Ralph – don’t make it up, look it up.

#177 Daisy Mae on 06.16.14 at 9:20 pm

Two-income families is pathetic. Farming out the kids to a daycare is pathetic. All you are doing is feeding the government — twice the income, twice the income taxes paid. And what an enormous cost! Really THINK about it. It is really, really sad.

Pull back…and get your priorities straight.

#178 Dual Citizen In Canada on 06.17.14 at 8:45 am

I have convinced my parents to stop advising me to buy a home in Canada. Ever since they saw the money I am making for them in the market. The more they make, the better for their kids once they pass on. Nonone wants to be left a home in my family. Having cash and a choice is a much greater gift.