Fear factor

3 modified

They swarmed the sales centre. The best guess seemed to be 300 when the doors opened. A few hours later only one third of the crowd had been processed. But that was enough. Oakford was sold out.

This is a new development of 48 homes in the GTA’s distant Markham, near Buttonville airport, slated to become a giant subdivision of singles, semis and condos. There are no houses built here, and the soonest anyone might move in would be next winter. But despite the fact there’s nothing much to see, save maps and brochures, house horniness ruled. It was a blizzard of offers and cheques.

When it was all done, lusty buyers had spent an average of $1.3 million in an average of 16 minutes. It takes longer than that to buy a bag of Stanfields at The Bay. “Everyone in the lineup knew there was a limited supply,” says an industry insider. “The mentality was clear. Buy immediately, or lose out.” And buy, they did.

But this was just a taste of happened a few clicks to the north this past weekend.

The marketing for Aurora Trails has been relentless, pounding, masterful and deliberate. “It’s not a lottery,” says the insider. “but it sure feels that way. There’s the fear of loss, the engineered lineups, first-come, first-served, restricted availability and the intense competition.”

Once again, they came – baited, hooked and landed. Desperate to sign up for a new house even in a project where hundreds of them will be available. And not cheap. Detached homes on 38-foot lots, 50 km from downtown Toronto on some of the nation’s most constipated highways, from the $700,000s. Add five more feet of dirt, and prices start at $100,000 more.

Here’s what it looked like:

AURORA TRAILS modified

4 modified

But this was a competition just to attend a preview. To actually buy involved another race – clicking on a site at precisely 6 pm Sunday evening in order to secure an appointment to acquire an unbuilt home. The rules were crystal:

APPOINTMENT ENROLMENT (sic) OPENS
Sunday June 8th at 6 p.m at auroratrails.com
Appointments will be set based on the enrolment names received during this time only. Appointments to purchase will begin on Monday June 9th
Nobody will be permitted into a Sales Office without a confirmed appointment
PLEASE NOTE: One purchase per registrant Registrant’s name must be the same name on the Offer to Purchase
All deals are ?rm
All pricing is subject to change and will be cofirmed at Purchaser Appointment
Purchasers can select one builder for a Purchaser Appointment
Agreement of Purchase and Sale will be available online when you book your appointment Please note that lot availability will be limited and con?rmed at Purchaser Appointment
PURCHASER APPOINTMENT ATTENDEES SHOULD BRING:
Bank pre-approval info
Personal cheque book (minimum 5 cheques)
Photo ID (i.e. drivers license or passport)
Lot availability and all program details and pricing are subject to change without notice.

Firm deals only. No shopping between the four builders offering product. No need to come if you’re not intending to buy. Prices subject to change without notice. Bring cheques, but no lawyer. And you’ll be barred from entry without an appointment.

Is this a sane way to spend the better part of a million dollars, trying to get your deposit cheque stuffed into a fetching saleslady’s palm before the other guy beats you to it? What the heck are they smoking these days in the nether regions of Greater Toronto?

Well, to the realtors, the builders, the agents, the stagers and the developers, this is all they could dream of. It’s irrational, unresearched, competitive panic buying. It just doesn’t get any better than this, watching people who haggle over used Hondas and refuse to buy $6 cauliflowers at Loblaws, now worried they might miss the chance to drop nine hundred grand on a product they can’t see.

To normal people, it’s mania. This is 1999 and Nortel all over again. It’s the desperation to buy Bre-X in 1995. The obsession over an ounce of gold in 2011. Houses in Florida or Vegas in 2004. It’s Tickle-me-Elmo, pet rocks and Backstreet Boys all rolled up together.

It’s not so much that these people are nuts, but that they represent the mainstream belief real estate, even secured with deep debt and bought in extreme haste, is utterly safe. That they were manipulated and goaded is moot. That this is now common is terrifying.

You know how it ends.

231 comments ↓

#1 Rick Fast on 06.09.14 at 5:39 pm

FIRST!

Is this the best thing you’ve done today? — Garth

#2 calgaryPhantom on 06.09.14 at 5:55 pm

Garth,

You are wrong. People are not spending `their` 900,000. They are only spending 5% of that. Do you seriously think that they plan to pay that amount to the bank. No way.

#3 enthalpy on 06.09.14 at 5:56 pm

Ridiculous. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.

#4 Halifax Observer on 06.09.14 at 5:58 pm

Halifax housing starts are down 65%

http://thechronicleherald.ca/business/1213475-halifax-housing-starts-decline

The party is over here. We have the highest inventory in history and very weak sales. This will be Canada’s ground zero.

#5 Smoking Man on 06.09.14 at 5:58 pm

I hear laughingcon capitulated and was in the line..

#6 shane on 06.09.14 at 6:03 pm

Garth, doesn’t look like it will never end???

It always ends. — Garth

#7 bob on 06.09.14 at 6:13 pm

Sat beside a mother and daughter in a coffee shop today. Mum looked stressed while Jr. told her she planned on buying a fixer upper. Mum ask’s about the downpayment. Jr tells her she’ll just put it on her Line of Credit.
_________

I did my duty….and recommended this blog to Jr :)

#8 Shawn on 06.09.14 at 6:18 pm

Don’t Be Rushed

There is always another house. It is crazy to be pressured like this.

Heck, even when a car dealer says, “this price is only good for today” smart people laugh and walk away.

#9 test on 06.09.14 at 6:21 pm

So Garth, what is, in your opinion, the radius of the circle centered in DT Toronto within it makes sense to buy 700K, what lot size, how many rooms?

#10 Kf on 06.09.14 at 6:23 pm

This is happening all over the world: California, NY, Singapore , Malaysia, Sydney, Melbourne, London, Berlin, Vietnam, etc….

Chinese people have been buying residential real estate around the globe with such a vicious appetite that they rarely negotiate and often pay more than asking.

I work in finance, and theories abound. Some say it’s because they relate everything to domestic Chinese prices (which are very high) and thus anything less than that is cheap by comparison, thus a “good investment”. Others say that it is corrupt money that they are trying to launder/hide, so they don’t care what they’re paying as long as the capital is expatriated.

We may never know why this is happening, but it is definitely happening and to think that it is just localized Canadian insanity is not accurate.

There is zero evidence those people are not from the Toronto region. — Garth

#11 Lorenzo on 06.09.14 at 6:32 pm

“This is 1999 and Nortel all over again. It’s the desperation to buy Bre-X in 1995. The obsession over an ounce of gold in 2011. Houses in Florida or Vegas in 2004. It’s Tickle-me-Elmo, pet rocks and Backstreet Boys all rolled up together.”

I’m too young to remember most of these.. they ended well right?

#12 TurnerNation on 06.09.14 at 6:41 pm

…of Canadian descent.

#13 Patient in Richmond on 06.09.14 at 6:44 pm

@#1
get a life

#14 saskatoon on 06.09.14 at 6:55 pm

yeah, we know how it ends:

all the smart canadians (the few of us, including garth) pay through the teeth for the idiocy of the many, all too many.

#15 YR on 06.09.14 at 7:02 pm

My neighbour told me about this yesterday. I could not digest this crazy behaviour from supposedly well informed people of GTA. Thanks Garth for highlighting the false notions. I am a happy renter.

#16 sheane wallace on 06.09.14 at 7:03 pm

gold was never in mania phase in the last century. when it does and it will the price will be measured in 5 digits.

are these homes worth 25 kilos of gold or 1.5 tons of silver? Highly doubt it.

#17 Joseph R. on 06.09.14 at 7:04 pm

Penny wise, pound foolish, Garth. That’s how we have a nation of Realtors and Wal-Marts but no more local mom and pop stores. You should see their parking lots and how many last-years old model they have on it.

People complain about ANY increase in gas prices yet they are ready to sign a blank cheque to a Realtor: That attitude is what drives economists INSANE, especially the theory that Reason drives economic choices!

e.g: if Best Buy would sale iPad 100$ cheaper for a day sale, the line-up would stretch for a few 100 meters yet if a car dealer would offer a one-day sale of 100$ off a car, barely any change in car sales, despite being 100$ in both cases.

It’s not going to end well.

#18 Lockdown2oldskool on 06.09.14 at 7:06 pm

Bought a semi in Mississauga back in ’03. Blizzard kept the rest away. White knuckles I slid through the snow to drop my quarter mil. Sold in 4 days with 13 cash offers in the frenzy of ’11. Moved to a village near London with 30% unemployment, a big yard, quiet neighbours and paid cash thanks to the ‘Sauga mania.

I’m out of the rat race. 12 minutes to the beach, 14 minutes to the mall, no traffic, and no mortgage. I’ve been readin your blog since the early days. Your price point for the wisdom you share is too low.

GT, you are appreciated. If you ever feel fed up of writing your blog think of me and my family. Instead of being screwed like so many, we have a shot at some sort of retirement thanks to your constant screaming.

Signed,
Grateful in Glanworth

#19 sheane wallace on 06.09.14 at 7:06 pm

#6 shane on 06.09.14 at 6:03 pm
Garth, doesn’t look like it will never end???

It always ends. — Garth

———————-
it surely will end but we will be in crap up to the eyeballs when the proverbial thing hits the fan.

not to mentioned we will be much poorer
………………………
10 Kf
…………………
I have no problem with your statement, WOULD WE PLEASE THEN DISBAND CMHC? If rich foreigners are buying we don’t need it!
I don’t want to be on the hook for their stupidity.
I rather leave.

#20 Hillbilly on 06.09.14 at 7:08 pm

Access to cheap and easy credit has always and everywhere reduced the critical thinking function.

It has always resulted in economic disaster for someone.

Don’t let that be you.

#21 sheane wallace on 06.09.14 at 7:09 pm

how does oil at 400-500 sound? we will get there.
soon.

In US food prices are up 10 % so far this year on track to increase by predicted 22 % by year end. No inflation? Right.

US GDP shrunk 1 % in the first quarter. Strong economy?

sure.
But stock market will keep going up, DOW 30 k is in the cards soon.

#22 Retired Boomer - WI on 06.09.14 at 7:11 pm

Gee, I was looking at the crazy stock market, the bullish sentiment rise, and thinking, NOW is the time to reduce that exposure, these people are F%^&KING NUTS!!!

Buy low, and sell high. Just to lighten it up not to exit the market here. MCD sales down, fewer higher earners, time for a breather.

Canaduh must be on a different schedule to better times than we are. Canuck buck 91.2 today when I looked not a show of strength to me, but the mighty smoking man is free to disagree here.

I certainly don’t know everything, but me thinks me smells a tired Bull.

#23 Kris on 06.09.14 at 7:21 pm

Clearly ,most of the people there are of asian decent, the hornisest re bunch on the planet.
Mister Turner, are u still in denial on the asian invasion thingie.
If so, why don’t purchase some dog treats for Bandit made in china at costco.

The racism and hatred on this blog sadden me greatly. I am tempted to call it a day here. — Garth

#24 Happy Renting on 06.09.14 at 7:22 pm

“Constipated highways” – very succinct.

As horrible as transit is, (and sometimes even being a pedestrian is fraught with peril), I would not want to try my luck in a car. I’d rather spend my life on something other than commuting, thanks.

#25 Harbour on 06.09.14 at 7:23 pm

Any Caucasians in those pics?

#26 Kris on 06.09.14 at 7:27 pm

BANNED

#27 Miser Obvious on 06.09.14 at 7:32 pm

I’m pretty sure how it will end. I only wonder if that end will be manifest before King Harper once again faces the electorate. No, I’m thinking.

#28 Ben on 06.09.14 at 7:33 pm

People queuing up for these are daft. How they must laugh as they first herd up and then funnel the sheep through into the pen.

Who queues to pay 700K? I’ll do it in my own time or not at all thanks.

#29 Kris on 06.09.14 at 7:33 pm

BANNED

#30 omg on 06.09.14 at 7:35 pm

Trying to think of something to say, but its all so tiring and sadly predictable.

Looks like the average age at the event is late 20s so at least they will have time to start over.

#31 joblo on 06.09.14 at 7:35 pm

Takes to long to buy Stanfields
Michael Jordan says buy Hanes!

#32 Roman on 06.09.14 at 7:36 pm

Will it going to end in a more sever way than in US?
US is diversified and a locomotive of word economy and how badly they were beaten for greed.

#33 omg on 06.09.14 at 7:37 pm

#22 Retired Boomer

The difference between the stock market and housing is that the stock market is not anywhere close to bubble territory.

The equities multiples are slightly higher than long-term averages but not crazy.

The income to home price multiples in TO and Vancouver ….. those are crazy bubbly.

#34 Happity on 06.09.14 at 7:39 pm

GTA has over 6 million people.

How many showed up for this?

Looks like 0.01%……

#35 Count the Chinese in those pics on 06.09.14 at 7:39 pm

It’s about 99% chinese…. Welcome to China north

#36 Strathcona on 06.09.14 at 7:41 pm

Garth,

in the photos you attached, I’ve noted one white dude, I think he couod be an agent, and dozens of asian buyers. If HAM is a myth, then I must be a tooth fairy.

Although it isnt politically correct, the west spending while the east is saving, had to end up somewhere. Im not there to ask questions, but I doubt many of the grandfathers of the buyers came to Canada a century ago.

recent immigrants, citizens, landed immigrants, it doesn’t matter. None of those terms are bringing down Canadian RE prices.

#37 Son of Ponzi on 06.09.14 at 7:41 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/worry-about-the-fiscal-cliff-not-job-creation/article19063509/
———————-
The property lemmings are rushing towards the fiscal cliff.

#38 sideline sitter on 06.09.14 at 7:42 pm

It’s insane, but adults make choices in life – good and bad – like living in Aurora.

*shudder*

#39 Rob on 06.09.14 at 7:44 pm

Get ready for Alibabas $140 billion IPO hitting NYSE.
Yellow helicopters like you’ve never seen it before coming to hood near YOU.

#40 Old Man on 06.09.14 at 7:45 pm

One of my senoritas in Mexico is blessed by the Gods as gets free TV and now she tells me am a fool. I pay $2,000 a year for TV and high speed internet, and she gets high speed internet for free as well. I asked her how and she said with magic as opens the window and the Wifi goddess comes to her. Now is she a thief? Si! She informs me that I am loco because its just a loan with no interest or capital pay back.

#41 AfterTheHouseSold on 06.09.14 at 7:46 pm

#19 Kris
#21 Harbour

“I am tempted to call it a day here”. Garth

Knock it off people or move along!

#42 joblo on 06.09.14 at 7:48 pm

HELPFUL REMINDERS FROM YOUR FORUM HOST, GARTH TURNER:
• Abusive, obscene or disrespectful commenters will not be published, and are subject to banning from this forum.

Ban em!

#43 Rob on 06.09.14 at 7:52 pm

An interesting documentary I recently watched.

https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CBwQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fdeathbychina.com%2F&ei=iEiWU5O8GMK8oQSYhIHgDg&usg=AFQjCNHcHJbcUhjpAR7BIHF-Gr-hm7buAw&sig2=5zZkR4eYzZH-PZ_8XKrzgQ

#44 Babblemaster on 06.09.14 at 7:59 pm

“You know how it ends.” – Garth

————————————————————–

Garth, this has been your message for many years. The majority are not listening. Definitely the immigrants are not listening. Toronto has massive immigration (you deny that’s a factor) and that makes all the difference. Look at the photos to see what I mean.

Run with the crowd. Be my guest. — Garth

#45 True on 06.09.14 at 8:00 pm

This is not a racist response but in Markham most buyers are coming with cash and money. Us immigrants that came and had to create our wealth the old fashioned way.. save ever penny don’t spend on enjoyment. No eating out, no new car, buy with cash when you have cash. We’ll we are the losers, the new immigrants coming with cash pay over asking and that leaves us old school immigrants in the dust. These pictures are a normal occurrence in Markham and it’s the new way of life. Not sure it will ever end, perhaps slow down but doesn’t matter to me. I missed the opportunity to upgrade when the prices actually reflected the size and quality of home you should of gotten. Example north markham, buddy bought a3 car garage home 5 years ago for mid 700’s. Listed it on MLS it didn’t sell for a few months, relisted with an “Asian” agent, who didn’t use MLS but sold in 24 hrs for 1.3 million. Who can afford that? Who can afford the $13,000 in taxes a year?

#46 james on 06.09.14 at 8:01 pm

wow, just nuts. I felt distinctly uncomfortable buying a home in a seattle market that is definitely tilted towards buyers. I’m not even spending a third of what these people are dropping, despite having high income.

Why did I feel uncomfortable? Because the time to buy is when prices are low.

Other notes:

a) the mortgage application process in the US is far more stringent right now. I’m surprised at how much documentation it requires these days.

b) those buyers in Aurora should visit during the winter. For 1 million they are getting a pretty horrid experience in terms of weather. Sure, it beats thunder bay, but it isn’t Miami.

#47 Gmp on 06.09.14 at 8:04 pm

Is it engrained in Chinese culture to own the roof over your head? I’m not saying they aren’t Canadian, or that they aren’t getting crazy mortgages, but why is it always Chinese. Come on Garth! You can’t deny the photos, right?
I’m not saying this for any other reason that I make this observation. Maybe they know something??

#48 Harbour on 06.09.14 at 8:09 pm

#41 AfterTheHouseSold

There’s nothing wrong or racial with my question. You take a hike.

#49 Apple's Falling! on 06.09.14 at 8:10 pm

Woke up today and saw that Apple shares had fallen 87% over the weekend.

Then I remembered their stock-split was happening, and saw my shares had increased 7 times.

back to zzzzzzzzz.

Saw a noon news blip that said if a baby born on Apple’s IPO day received $100 in shares (4 1/2 shares), holding that Apple stock through stock splits and price rollercoaster since then, it is now worth over $23,000.

Not bad for ‘letting it ride’ for over 3 decades.

#50 Rob on 06.09.14 at 8:10 pm

Garth, are you saying there is racism here on this site.
Dude, you should visit rants and raves at vancouver craigslist.

#51 lee on 06.09.14 at 8:15 pm

Don’t let a few bad eggs make you shut the site down. What will I do between 8:00 pm and 8:03 pm each night if you shut the site down.

#52 Mishuko on 06.09.14 at 8:20 pm

I read this as I put on my Stanfields…. so I’m born in Canada and of oriental decent. do I care what race buys what? Not really. That area has a strong asian presence, but that does not mean they aren’t citizens. Saddens me to see that people assume it’s overseas monies. I think the best way to squash or confirm overseas monies(including murica, Europe, middle east, Asia and austradia) would be disclosure by someone.

#53 Cici on 06.09.14 at 8:21 pm

Hmmm…common? Everyone I know seems to think RE is too outrageous to buy into right now. If they did buy in, they took their time to research and get the best value.

Are these crazy fools that are buying into 50 km prefab dreams-not-yet-become-reality really moist virgins, or are they overfed and overindebted speckers?

I’m thinking that speckers might be a huge percentage of the RE sales demographic in Canada.

#54 Harbour on 06.09.14 at 8:21 pm

U.S. jobs picture better than Canada’s for past 12 months

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/u-s-jobs-picture-better-than-canada-s-for-past-12-months-1.2668748?cmp=rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

#55 Snowboid on 06.09.14 at 8:28 pm

#23 Kris on 06.09.14 at 7:21 pm…

All I see in the pictures is a bunch of ‘house-horny’ Canadians.

Their parents were likely Canadians as were mine, but go further back and you would find ancestors from other countries – just like mine. Anyone other than First Nations were immigrants at one time.

Give it a bloody rest!

#56 Freedom First on 06.09.14 at 8:29 pm

Garth, your 2nd last sentence: “That this is now common is terrifying”, I can’t add to that, it says it all. Irrational exuberance. We are so screwed.

#57 FormerSaskie on 06.09.14 at 8:30 pm

In my 20’s I moved around for better jobs and opportunities; six cities, three provinces. The people I met and the different work challenges I experienced made work life interesting.

The 20 something’s purchasing these dwellings just do not understand how they have limited their opportunities to go after better jobs and interesting work experiences all for the sake of shelter that could be rented for less money. The focus of their work life will be to earn the money for the mortgage and associated other costs of owning instead of exploring different aspects of their professions. This is so sad.

#58 Hillbilly on 06.09.14 at 8:31 pm

The constant addition of leverage in the economies of the West ensure that low interest rates will be with us for a long time yet. They need cheap rates to;

1) be able to borrow to supplant lowered tax receipts and deficits
2) allow debts to be serviced and repaid
3) create more credit
4) support asset prices (like stocks and real state)
5) devalue currencies to increase exports
6) create inflation to lessen the nominal debt burdens

Your idea that the bond market sets interest rates, not governments is correct in theory. However, Central Banks are no longer truly independent from governments and so government aims now influence bond market rates.

That is why Spanish government bonds (remember Spain has about 25 % unemployment currently) pay the same yield as US government bonds of the same maturity. How is this so? The ECB wants it that way.

The game is up Garth, fundamentals don’t matter and won’t until these Central Bank pricks lose control. And they can keep this charade going for a long time.

Believe it or not, the all markets are reacting rationally to this new reality.

#59 High Plains Drifter on 06.09.14 at 8:34 pm

Was passing through the local horse betting shop and heard the hard pounding real estate guy tell the hotel management type we are up a solid 6%. Good news, my horse losses are running neck and neck with my real estate gains. I have my new socks, now cometh the hat.

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.09.14 at 8:38 pm

Apparently “Kris” on #26 and #29 doesnt quite get the idea of ‘BANNED”.

People, either spew your misguided hatred elsewhere or grow up.

CMHC, Banks and our gutless govt are to blame.
Not visible minorities.

Idiots and their narrow minds frighten me because they’re allowed to vote……..

For example:
http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=7&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CD4QFjAG&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2F2014%2Fmay%2F26%2F10-key-lessons-european-election-results&ei=NFOWU4rJJI7xoASoz4DoDQ&usg=AFQjCNFUOM5dJ3l6HR0GANoOrG1GjuRYKg&bvm=bv.68693194,d.cGU

Idiots and their misguided votes create bigger problems……..

#61 pinstripe on 06.09.14 at 8:45 pm

There is no shortage of money and many people are most willing to search out an opportunity.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Hotels+packed+restaurants+busier+Global+Petroleum+Show+comes/9922271/story.html

#62 Dan on 06.09.14 at 8:45 pm

New/first generation immigrants have a different outlook on life and what profit means. Having worked overseas, I find that homegrown Canadians aren’t as “greed at any costs” as the less better off citizens of other countries. I put it off to cultural differences. Might kill the country’s social fabric as we know it but that’s life as it unfolds right before our very own eyes.

#63 Bobby on 06.09.14 at 8:47 pm

This reminds me of the Toronto area in the late 80’s. A builder would set up a trailer in an open field and people would line up in the rain. Every few moments a sales agent would come out and raise the price. Unfortunately for many, some of these homes we’re never built and many of those that were built were of extremely poor quality. The buyers had no recourse as the builders were numbered companies and on completion the builders just moved on. Many sold their homes. To find their new property was just a hole in the ground.
Only an idiot would buy a home sight unseen. It’s evident there are lots of idiots out there.

#64 Margaret on 06.09.14 at 8:49 pm

In 2007 Edmonton new home builders were having buyers sign “price adjustment” clauses, and we know how that went. We still have homeowners who bought then under water. Scary stuff.

#65 Gmp on 06.09.14 at 8:52 pm

Hey Garth

YOU posted the photos. They’re all Chinese. One can’t deny it. How can you post those pics on your blog and expect everyone not to notice that? I’m just making an observation…
Is this just cultural?

They look Canadian to me. — Garth

#66 Freedom First on 06.09.14 at 8:54 pm

Garth……about #23 Kris. Don’t let the ba#tard$ get you down. The racism and hatred in the comments on your Blog is always far surpassed by the financial illiteracy, financial ignorance, and financial insanity in the comments on your Blog. However, thank God, you get many comments over the years on a regular basis thanking you for saving their financial a$$es. Like #18’s comment today today, and many more from people you rescued from a much more serious abyss than #18. We need you Garth.

#67 Smudgekin on 06.09.14 at 8:57 pm

Say Garth get these folks hoodwinked into some kinky sex party…

#68 dutch4505 on 06.09.14 at 9:00 pm

to my Canadian friends…. if you are an arm chair critic of the people buying houses in this manner (which I have seen before in my home country..USA) keep in mind that ALL Canadian taxpayers including the arm chair critics are co signing the mortgages by way of CMHC. (aka fannie mae north) best of luck to all of you…the buyers and the co signers.

#69 Exurban on 06.09.14 at 9:00 pm

Garth, I’m one of the troglodyte Vancouverites who make you so sad. The GTA is now getting the chance to see what Vancouver has been seeing in waves since the last days of Mulroney. (And BTW, has not Harper pretty much totally morphed into Lyin’ Brian?) The people lined up in those photos are probably all residents of greater Toronto, may have been living there for some time, and some of them — not a lot, but some — may have been born in Canada. Most of them are good citizens. Not many of them are laundering money; that exists, but the CCP cadres who embezzle fortunes from the state-owned enterprises aren’t likely to be lining up in Aurora. As you say, many of them are signing up for short-term low-interest-rate mortgages enabled by CMHC insurance — a decision they may regret.

But, they do have information that a lot of Canadians don’t. They’ve got an idea of the enormous numbers of people arriving in Vancouver and Toronto. They know how many more there are in China who want to come or at least to buy RE. They know about the extent of money laundering connected to the SOEs. The average Canadian outside of Vancouver — and now, perhaps, the GTA — just has no clue about these facts.

But you know the craziest thing here, Garth? It’s that as far as Canadian RE outside the immigrant/foreign investment zone is concerned, you’re right. It’s a credit-driven bubble that’s already starting to deflate. And, your message about diversified investments that pay you to own them is excellent. How unfortunate that your message is undermined by the phenomenon you refuse to acknowledge, which is indeed also happening in California, Australia, London and elsewhere, just as commenter #10 KF politely explained.

Yellow peril. Look it up. — Garth

#70 NDP voters Vote strategic on 06.09.14 at 9:02 pm

As a strong NDP supporter it pains me to vote anyone but NDP but in this case my riding could go either liberals or crazy conservatives (Hudak) and so I will vote liberals. We as NDP must send a message to NDP whorebath who forced an election even though the liberals has an NDP favorable bill. WhoreBath reminds me of Bob Rae who was a conservative in NDP clothing. We don’t need another Mike Harris. Don’t be suckered by the corporate media who is giving whorebath a lot of media time ( never seen that before) because the conservative hope you are fooled into throwing your vote away and then giving Tim Hudak a mike harris clone victory. Make your VOTE COUNT AGAINST HUDAK so dont’ throw it away .

#71 Bob Rice on 06.09.14 at 9:06 pm

“You know how it ends.”

When Garth? When will it end???

#72 Drug Ford on 06.09.14 at 9:06 pm

Hiya Gartho!

Agreed – it is totally insane for these people to be rushing into buying houses like that. They must be on crack.

Same thing happened to some good taxpayers I know out here in Etobicoke. They rushed into a new neighbourhood faster than the pathological left wing media tried to frame Robbie!

Sure enough, they found out too late that they were living beside a bunch of whacky artistic people. Property values are in the toilet now. Not good :(

Personally I don’t give a crap about artism (WTF kind of a stupid name is that, eh!?) and whatever else the downtown wine sipping elitists want to shove down our throats. You think Margaret Atwood is a great sculptor? Whoop de doo for you, I say, go give her a big kiss.

But keep your GD artism out of my friends’s neighbourhood.

And anyone who finds out too late that Markham is full of artistic people too, don’t blame me.

You were warned.

#73 Bob Rice on 06.09.14 at 9:09 pm

#63 – “This reminds me of the Toronto area in the late 80′s.”

Only difference, and it’s a big one, is that a lot more detached homes were being built back then… Low supply of detached will ensure that prices will remain sticky for the foreseeable future….

#74 Dean on 06.09.14 at 9:12 pm

re: #65 Gmp

If the bubble does burst and it will, these Chinese people will get hurt the most

#75 Randol on 06.09.14 at 9:16 pm

Don’t dismay Garth. This blog is full of idiots who know nothing more than exists outside their Superbox. We’re not all racist ignorants and we appreciate your efforts, knowledge and time.

HAM! HAM! Russians, Iranians, Canadians, whoever. Do I buy? Do I sell? Help me think Garth!

Good thing we have SM to point the moral compass and young and dumb self-proclaimed “go getters” like bi-curious to lead the way to financial prosperity. Let’s all buy a detached in greater GTA and retire in 10 years. Leeside, West Van, Kits, Beaches, hell-yeah! Can’t lose! Suckers!

You all have absolutely no clue.

Thank you Garth.

#76 45north on 06.09.14 at 9:18 pm

This is 1999 and Nortel all over again.

I personally think that it is worse. Much worse. More people who are more leveraged.

Hillbilly : Access to cheap and easy credit has always and everywhere reduced the critical thinking function.

I’m thinking that in case of a downturn, the banks can squeeze these guys for a couple years.

Miser Obvious: I only wonder if that end will be manifest before King Harper once again faces the electorate

it’s Mister Obvious, miser is something completely different

manifest, that is the right word

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/manifest

the PC, Liberals and NDP will throw these people under the bus when the time comes.

Form Man: I moved some patio stones around today. I talked to a man, he said his son was working as a form man. The forms are 150 lbs! The patio stones were heavy enough.

#77 Old Man on 06.09.14 at 9:21 pm

The key to relocation is to find a nice smaller town as you would be surprised what such a community can offer with a social life and all the facilities for good living. The cost of a beautiful home will be much lower and depending on your occupation your gross income might not be discounted. It is all about the net savings and having an equal or even better lifestyle than the big city as a living package. In this way you have beat the system by pouring extra money into prudent investments thus creating personal wealth at a faster rate like never before. This is the opportunity of a lifetime to ponder in todays world.

#78 Italians love real estate on 06.09.14 at 9:23 pm

Yup, continue to deny the Asian influence but continue to post pictures full of them .

eh oh, the builders selling to them are all Italian owned companies.Might as well deny that as well .

Italians love real estate and the Asians that buy it from them !!

It must suck to see people as you do. — Garth

#79 Old Man on 06.09.14 at 9:35 pm

The Ontario election has become a fire storm with no winners and mistakes have been made. The outcome cannot be predicted as confusion is everywhere and am personally shocked by it all.

#80 Financial Freedom at 40 on 06.09.14 at 9:36 pm

Proposal: “HAM” is becoming a state of mind that knows no age or race. Label it “IRE” – irrational real estate aka thing causing madness. It should describe an act more than a person.

Being rush-toured with parents through model homes on golf carts in new “adult leisure lifestyle communities”. The best lot/model combos sell out in a flash. Quick calculation of cost per square foot from the “special clearance price” on the leftover reject units – seriously? That’s just nuts. Then add monthly fees for window cleaning, lawn care, snow removal.

Not marketed to me, or boomer financed Gen Y, or new immigrants. Grey haired “WASPs” with roots back to the Irish potato famine snapping them up. Developers only charge what the market will bear.

It’s like a herd mentality – everyone sees only safety in numbers.

#81 For those about to flop... on 06.09.14 at 9:43 pm

I notice there are no chairs at the presentation centre.
Does this mean no one there will have a chair when the music stops!

#82 Italians love real estate on 06.09.14 at 9:44 pm

Well, whether you believe it’s Asians, Canadians or Aliens buying all these houses and condos, one thing is undeniable.

They continue to buy from predominantly Italian owned builders and related companies thus making that community ever more richer.

Oh Boy do Italians love real estate !!!

#83 GTA Observer on 06.09.14 at 9:47 pm

#3 Enthalpy: Ridiculous. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.


You’re not. They are.

#84 Rob on 06.09.14 at 9:47 pm

I’m thinking that speckers might be a huge percentage of the RE sales demographic in Canada.

Agreed…and after 1.5 hears the loot is 100% tax-free.

#85 Old Man on 06.09.14 at 9:48 pm

The Financial Post has an article about a secret brokers plan offering rates as low as 2.69% for a mortgage over 5 years. Now don’t say I never told you because its DUCA. :)

That was in the industry press last week, and is no secret. — Garth

#86 R on 06.09.14 at 9:48 pm

On the edges of the GTA, in those rare, endangered strips of green that still manage to separate Brampton from Halton… I think to myself: This is what malinvestment looks like.

Suburbia isn’t the disease, but the result of the disease; a pathological need to own a house that combines all of the worst elements of city and rural living with none of the benefits.

We all know that only degenerates rent.

#87 pjwlk on 06.09.14 at 9:49 pm

I’ve seen this all before in the late 80’s early 90’s. My boss at the time told me he was P/O’d that he had to line up to buy a condo in Thornhill. When he started asking questions about the place they told him to step aside and let someone else up to the table who was ready to buy. He left.

The builder was not lucky enough to sell-out before the big downturn and wound up calling my boss about 6 months later and basically begging him to make an offer. He of course told them to get stuffed.

#88 Randol on 06.09.14 at 9:53 pm

“Italians love…”

Google ‘Audrey Zhang’ and tell me what you think. HAM, citizen, problem or solution? Either way you are a fool.

#89 China Study on 06.09.14 at 9:54 pm

The good thing about any foreign investment into these homes is that they must have a minimum of 35% down payment. The bad thing is that neither income nor credit reports are needed to secure their mortgage.

If they are required to have a bank pre-approval, and these homes are worth more than 1 million, then they would need to have at least 20% as the down payment.

These purchases are most likely people selling existing properties to purchase new homes…

#90 Tim Hudaks wife made $745K at Hydro one on 06.09.14 at 9:56 pm

Tim Hudaks wife made $745K over the last three years working at Hydro One. I am sure they hired her because of her skill and not as a political favour for TIM Hudak .

If you have to attack his wife, he must be winning. — Garth

#91 Kreditanstalt on 06.09.14 at 9:58 pm

I’m puzzled why so many people want to live in a nameless distant suburb, in a cookie-cutter particleboard-and-vinyl house, at an enormous cost.

Is there any wilderness nearby? Parks? Shops? Schools within walking distance? Neighbours home during 9-to-5? Ocean or lakes?

Perhaps they actually WORK in this place and need to live near their jobs. Who knows? But it better be one hell of a high-paying and secure job.

I chose a 102-year-old heritage gem here on Vancouver Island for the local softwood floors, huge 3/4-acre lot and heritage woodwork plus two chimneys. Great neighbours, slow life, no pressure, low cost-of-living, total wilderness nearby and an ocean view with the water in five minutes’ walk ~ for less than half of what “Aurora Trails” fairyland requires.

Yet, OTOH a piece of 27-year-old stucco junk on small lot next road over wants over $300,000…just because it’s NEWER.

Go figure.

#92 LuckyLuke on 06.09.14 at 9:59 pm

It looks from those pictures that the majority of interested are asians. Canadian or not, is really not important, in either case the money comes from somewhere and it can very easily come from the east. Family heritage or businesses in china. I have a friend who married a chinese, she is canadian now, her whole family fortune can flow into canadian RE if she wished so.

Much safer to buy RE in Canada than over there, or anywhere else in the world. We have one of the least dense populations in the world, almost free energy, largest potable water reserves in the world, practically no air pollution and a uniquely open society to cultures and immigration.

I just don t think those pictures are a coincidence, I have noticed the same trend it in other similar posts.

#93 truthful on 06.09.14 at 10:01 pm

amazing to see that only oriental people are the ones in those pics buying these homes and i am quite certain they are cash buyers. As this continues to happen, mortgage folks have no choice but to scatter to less expensive areas, causing those areas prices to sky rocket. Its a shame that public housing does not exist, unless you consider basement apartments ofcourse

How do you possibly know they’re cash buyers? This blog is toxic. — Garth

#94 X on 06.09.14 at 10:04 pm

Funny to compare buying a new built home now with buying a business.

A business purchase, legal review, inspection of assets by professionals, consultation with accountant, etc…..for something that would actually pay you monthly.

These new build homes, no consultation, they don’t pay you anything, your property taxes are unknown, in some cases you don’t know what you are getting as the builder decides exterior A, B or C for you.

The end of this RE market will be worse than the early 90’s.

#95 When on 06.09.14 at 10:11 pm

When will this end Garth? What signs are you looking out for that’ll mean we’re near the end of this massive inflated bubble?

#96 Rob on 06.09.14 at 10:17 pm

#95 When on 06.09.14 at 10:11 pm
When will this end Garth? What signs are you looking out for that’ll mean we’re near the end of this massive inflated bubble?

Since the bull-market is been going on for almost 25 years does that not indicate the NEW NORMAL ?
I mean the millennials have never experienced a downturn with this massive-unprecedented money printing this may just never end… :(

#97 Debtfree on 06.09.14 at 10:21 pm

Er . You guys do know that there are 2.6 million people in Ontario that are of Asian origin and that they make up 20% of the population , right ?

#98 Italians love real estate on 06.09.14 at 10:26 pm

#88 randol- what does Audrey Zhang have anything to do with what I wrote?

Do you have reading comprehension issues?

#99 mark on 06.09.14 at 10:28 pm

I think housing is still going to go up, we got it all wrong….

#100 Shawn on 06.09.14 at 10:30 pm

It’s Not Over Unless Interest Rates Have stopped Falling (But Which they May have Done)

I think we can all agree that lower and lower interest rates are a LARGE part of the reason for higher house prices.

Lower rates obviously make higher prices more affordable.

I was going to do some calculations which I thought would show that at this point with the five year rate at 3.00%, lower rates would not have much further impact on house price affordability. After all the principal still has to be paid no matter how low the rate gets.

BUT when I did the calculation it shows that if interest rates could go lower it would still push the “affordable” price up quite a bit yet.

Let’s pretend that $3000 per month is an “affordable” mortgage. I would never pay that but apparently some double income professional couples can swing it.

Here are some figures for a 25 year amortization.

At 10% interest $3000 per month pays a $330,142 mortgage. (Based on monthly compounding of interest, with semi-annual the figures would be a few dollars different)

At 5% it pays a $513,180 mortgage

At 4% $568,357

At 3% $632,629 (“X” Marks the Spot We ARE HERE!)

At 2% $707,790

At 1% $796,025

At 0% $900,000 ($3,000 times 12 times 25)

So it seems IF rates go lower house prices could still move up quite a bit yet based on a given payment.

Personally, I don’t think the banks can turn a profit at under 3.00% for the five year locked in term. So it’s unlikely the mortgage rates can go any lower. And remember we have to qualify for the five year rate.

If that’s true the house price increases are likely over.

I guess in the end, it will be over when it’s over and that will be clear only after it happens.

Meanwhile it’s an interesting spectator sport for many of us.

#101 OttawaMike on 06.09.14 at 10:30 pm

Here is a video inspired by the type of goofs who post their xenophobic tripe here:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/abefg/if-asians-said-the-stuff-white-people-say

#102 Lala on 06.09.14 at 10:31 pm

DELETED

#103 liquid in calgary on 06.09.14 at 10:33 pm

@ #21 sheanne wallace

every one of ‘your’ predictions was made when US housing imploded a few yrs ago.

george noory’s guests are one trick ponies

#104 liquid in calgary on 06.09.14 at 10:38 pm

The racism and hatred on this blog sadden me greatly. I am tempted to call it a day here. — Garth

so that’s it? the racists win??

like all GOOD albertans, i’m originally from saskatchewan. nothing is easy there.

keep fighting garth…the army behind you is greater than you believe

#105 I_just_dont_want_to_offend on 06.09.14 at 10:39 pm

But Garth, are you sure these pictures were taken in Canada, where the middle class earners pay on average 33% marginal income tax rates? Because, you know, some countries have like, 0.5% income tax rates, you know.

#106 totalinvestor.com on 06.09.14 at 10:39 pm

Well if this isn’t HAM I don’t know what is.

http://tinyurl.com/na9vh8g

#107 Realist on 06.09.14 at 10:41 pm

Here we go again about the threat of the yellow pearl. These houses in Markham are selling for under 1M. So it’s not these kinds of homes that are driving single family homes in the GTA over the 1M mark. Those are in neighborhoods like Lawrence Park, Forest Hill and Leaside. All “Canadian” neighborhoods. Why is it that we always blame others for our own follies?

#108 liquid in calgary on 06.09.14 at 10:41 pm

…oh yeah

go riders

#109 Realtor #1 GTA on 06.09.14 at 10:42 pm

Never mind the ethnicity and look at the demand!

You need to vote PC and hope that the 100k people
lose their jobs and all need to sell.

Five years and counting.
Jobs loses are your only hope
This market doesn’t look like it’s slowing

#110 Inottawa2012 on 06.09.14 at 10:45 pm

Just sold my rental condo. Only one to sell in the neighborhood in 3 months. People are asking too much and trying to chase prices down instead of pricing properly. Luckily I bought low and could afford to price well and walk away with rental equity and some appreciation. An agent confirmed that many can’t afford to sell for less than what they paid last year but have already bought new moveup houses. So screwed.

#111 Cici on 06.09.14 at 10:46 pm

The only thing more daft than the people lining up to sign the dotted $700,000 line (because there’s at least a slight chance that their home will grow in value over the years) are those that give in to the “Asian invasion” propaganda.

I did in fact count the number of “Asians” in the first picture. I saw maybe five to seven, and about 19 other people of various other ethnicities, but mostly Caucasian. And what exactly does this prove? Absolutely nothing. Maybe the photographer at the even was given instructions to zoom in on the minority “Asian” demographic to feed into the frenzied schizophrenic minds of the masses.
These “Asians” could in fact be third-generation Canadians, whereas the “Caucasians” could very well be immigrants from Britain, Australia, the US, etc. But for some reason, that’s acceptable in a lot of people’s minds. Talk about backwards thinking.
And by the way…just got back from vacation in Toronto. Every time I had to ask a passerby (99% of whom were Causasian) for information or directions, the most famous response was “I don’t know, I’m not from here” or “I don’t know, I haven’t been here for very long.”
Maybe they were all tourists too? I doubt it. Stop worrying about people’s ethnic backgrounds. In the multicultural landscape of globalization, it means absolutely nothing.

#112 Cici on 06.09.14 at 10:51 pm

#101 Realist

Absolutely, well said! (well except the Yellow pearl part…it’s actually Yellow peril…sorry for being a nitpick, I just had to point that out).

#113 El Nido on 06.09.14 at 10:53 pm

So….where does Garth think how to make a real return on your money now. Looks like to him, gold is out, so is “real” estate. General stock “market”? Don’t make me larf … unless you are a short term trend trader, or better yet, an insider. Forex is always good, if you know what you are doing and sleep with your computer.

Actually making money in one market or the other is not that difficult, just most don’t hang on to it. There is always another mania starting or ending, just like night and day. Doubling your money on some boring house with concrete shoes is nothing. I am talking about 2000% TO 4000% in the next mania, like so others before. This one will be in small/junior gold/silver producers. Everybody hates them now, soon they will pile in again and your 8 cents stock will be selling for over 3 bucks or more in a couple of years or less, just like before. I will contact you again before then, Garth and will ask you why you did not listen. Making money is simple, but not by working or paying a mortgage, LOL.

Yup, that sounds secure. — Garth

#114 Piccaso on 06.09.14 at 10:53 pm

What’s the big deal about tonight’s pictures

They’re all like that on this blog.

#115 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.09.14 at 10:57 pm

Yes – the majority in line are of Asian descent. These properties are being sold in Markham, where the population overall is majority Asian descent.

So, what’s the surprise here exactly?

Garth could just as easily post a lineup from Brampton or Milton or elsewhere around the GTA and you’d see the same ridiculous behaviour. Milton is one of the most insane parts of the GTA, and has been for 10+ years (since Mattamy started turning farmland into burbs full of pressed-cornflake assembly line homes).

House Horniness runs deep in almost every culture.

#116 Cici on 06.09.14 at 10:59 pm

Oops meant #107 Realist.

But thank you too #101 OttawaMike, that was absolutely priceless ;-)

#117 Keith on 06.09.14 at 11:00 pm

If the real estate market has been inflated by a credit bubble, and not by other factors such as offshore buyers, then Vancouver would not be the most expensive market in Canada. The median family income in Vancouver is 69,000 dollars per year, 22nd in Canada. There is no way that real estate prices in Vancouver are as high as they are because of loose credit standards, unless there are special measures in place that allow bigger mortgage/income ratios for this market alone.

Rent – own ratio is about 50 – 50. How do you explain the prices in Vancouver, loose lending standards are clearly not doing it here.

#118 Dodgedbullet on 06.09.14 at 11:01 pm

The future of suburban life is at a cross roads, on one hand you have the threat of ever increasing running costs and the declining revenue streams of large companies fighting against the notion that a home must be bought and the road to freedom is through a land grab… There is no other hand. We sit and wait for change whilst it is happening around us at an unprecedented rate. Seek out what is important to you and fight for it.

#119 Lala on 06.09.14 at 11:05 pm

DELETED

#120 **NAKED APE** on 06.09.14 at 11:05 pm

Sitting here tonight reading the news on-line, checking the mail and trying to unwind. Not sure which topic now is getting my blood pressure up waaaay too high…

This fricken blog illustrating how stupid the sheeples are falling for the propaganda of “it’s only a one-time offer, bring that cheque book, sight unseen”, otherwise you will forever be excluded from this special, one time deal or…

the junk, mass mailing from Capital One saying that they have helped over ‘a million Canadians GET ACCESS TO CREDIT’, with terms of 19.8% annual interest rates, on approval, $59 annual fees, plus other fees for over limits, special balance transfers and cash advances, or…

the two stooges, (Harper and Abbott), who, when questioned about the USA initiatives on climate change, sweetly stroked each others butts today saying, we are concerned about the environment, but “jobs & economy” come first…

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tony-abbott-stephen-harper-take-hard-line-against-carbon-tax-1.2669287

This country is sooo screwed…..

#121 Lala on 06.09.14 at 11:09 pm

Garth forget the racism, bring the Alicia back,
Aliciaaaaa where are youuuu!!!!

#122 kiLLAbOY49 on 06.09.14 at 11:13 pm

Still lots of demand. Not exactly a sign of an impending real estate crash. Or is it? No, it isn’t.

#123 Teacher's Ass-istant on 06.09.14 at 11:13 pm

“The racism and hatred on this blog sadden me greatly. I am tempted to call it a day here. — Garth”

I think the problem is that a lot of people don’t understand that if someone immigrated here a long time ago and then had kids here (Canadians) and those kids had kids (also Canadians) that doesn’t automatically make those kids look just like their kids.

The scariest thing about the success of this development is that the strategy is likely to be employed again and again seeing it worked this time. Don’t build five hundred houses in a new suburb just fifty at a time ten times that are all ajoined but called different names and sold at different times.

“I certainly don’t know everything, but me thinks me smells a tired Bull.”

Yeah I have to agree with you there and your comments are so much more coherent and sensible. Much rather read yours than Smoking Doughhead. Still remember he did have that traumatic experience with a teacher. You are lucky you’re about 700 miles away from him, imagine the stench here in the GTA.

Please though, Canaduh, very disrepectful even if so much of the population fits the duh part.

#124 dangeresque2 on 06.09.14 at 11:14 pm

Heard a commercial on the radio this evening for Servus Credit Union, advertising that their mortgage product was so good and so creative, that it was… wait for it …

“Mortgagic”

Will post a link if I can find it…

#125 Berniebee on 06.09.14 at 11:32 pm

#92 LuckyLuke

“… the money comes from somewhere and it can very easily come from the east.”

Ah, you mean like, from Scarborough.

#126 ozy - Discover ACCEPTANCE on 06.09.14 at 11:36 pm

Discover ACCEPTANCE MY fellas…acceptance

…acceptance
…acceptance
…acceptance

the neo-global-colonialism has enter its final hour.

find cover. do not follow the herd /speculation mania. soon the bankers will be harvesting. many will cry. If I save one, I am happy.

that being said, here are still some “hedged” better buys out there

#127 ozy -thanks KEITH!! on 06.09.14 at 11:39 pm

Thanks man! well said. APPRECIATE IT. A LOT

==================================

#117 Keith on 06.09.14 at 11:00 pm
If the real estate market has been inflated by a credit bubble, and not by other factors such as offshore buyers, then Vancouver would not be the most expensive market in Canada. The median family income in Vancouver is 69,000 dollars per year, 22nd in Canada. There is no way that real estate prices in Vancouver are as high as they are because of loose credit standards, unless there are special measures in place that allow bigger mortgage/income ratios for this market alone.

Rent – own ratio is about 50 – 50. How do you explain the prices in Vancouver, loose lending standards are clearly not doing it here.

#128 Not an economist on 06.09.14 at 11:40 pm

Let’s say you have a million dollars, which is apparently way less than the average of what this group of people were willing to pay for a home in Markham. Apparently they spend 1.3 million on average, but this includes semi-detached and condos, so we can only imagine the average (or better yet, the median) of a detached house. Maybe 2 mil or more? In f-ing Markham? But I digress.

You take a million (we’ll low ball it, and not go for the average of 1.3mil), you buy common shares of say…. BMO. You don’t get all sophisticated and diversified and you don’t drink sherry out of a thin glass cup while holding your pinkie out. No siree, you’re a workin stiff, who apparently got ahold of a million dollars, and just go for something simple and safe. Congrats, you own common stock in one of the 5 co-monopolies of Canadian banking.

You get a Canadian eligible dividend income of between 4 and 4.5% depending on which day of the week you buy. That’s like ~45 grand a year gross income, but with very low taxes (remember, eligible dividends), and no EI or CPP contributions. That’s equivalent to something like a 55k or more a year in regular employment income, just from the dividends. For life. You’re done, you clock the f-k out, you rent a place, or alternatively move any place that isn’t the inner part of a major urban centre, buy a big ass detached home with a lot big enough to put a farm on if you wanted to. You know, just in case weed becomes legal, you don’t wanna miss out on a new hobby.

Or you could buy a yet-to-be-built home built at the peak of the bubble with all the caveats that it implies (pressed cornflakes, etc). And now you have a money pit: property taxes, hydro&gas, maintenance and insurance no matter what. If you’re working for less than ~55k a year, the money that you paid for that home could have earned more than you do, but in perpetuity and with no risks of sickness, outsourcing, or eventual organ failure.

The median wage is still a little above 40k, for those lucky enough to have a job. A million just about guarantees you perpetual income equivalent to a 55k a year job. A million is worth far more than the average person’s labour. And people blow 1.3 million on a condo, semi or detached in buttf-k Markham? You’re not trendy and hip, you’re in f-in MARKHAM. The hell are you paying a premium for? Bust out google maps and zoom out a bit. Look to the north, east or northeast. Does that look like land scarcity to you?

In the Age of Information, ignorance is a choice.

#129 michael on 06.09.14 at 11:49 pm

Renters are not happy, thinking of money down the drain. Buyers are not happy, taxes, hydro, maintenance. People waiting for the opportunity after bubble burst are not happy for waiting so long. People unhappy for been price out. What a freaking mess.

#130 natrx on 06.09.14 at 11:58 pm

Notice they’re 99% Chinese. Mainland background just yearning for some land. Back home, that money won’t buy you diddley in a decent area. But in Canada, ohh yea, no problem (and the air is alot cleaner here which actually is a bit factor). Most of them are buying with Cash anyways so no worries there.

#131 Dan7 on 06.10.14 at 12:13 am

How can this be
Average price $1.2 mill so you put down $240k and have a mortgage at $960k at 5 year variable rate closed at 3% your monthly mortgage payment is $4543 after tax dollars + property tax + utilities etc. How much are these people earning to carry a house at this price? Income growth is not keeping up with inflation yet house prices keep growing at 5% plus per year. BNN mentioned June 9th is considered tax freedom day and the average Canadian is paying $43000 in taxes. Canadians are getting robbed

#132 Buy? Curious? on 06.10.14 at 1:05 am

It sounds to me that the only people that are complaining are renters (and racists but they all live in small towns). If all those people are buying on the outskirts of Canada’s greatest city, imagine what a house is worth in it, by a subway station, and a daycare?

And don’t blame the Chinese! You should be rolling out the red carpet and handing them a beer. They’re saving your lazy entitled butts from working. A house doubling in price every 5 years or so? Hell, that’s more money than I could ever earn, legally.

I see a housing aparthied coming. There won’t be any physical gates keeping the riff-raff out. The commute to affordable places will. Those long commutes, brrrr, just thinking of the 400 or 401 on a Friday afternoon gives me the heebee-jeebees.

So to all those that have used the phrase “This will not end well”, you are right. Keep thinking that and renting and your prophecy will come true. For you that is!

Bwahahaha!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMnRGVVWeE4

#133 dienekes on 06.10.14 at 1:06 am

@78
I found it interesting when I was in Saskatoon that there were tons of Italians in the lumber yards looking at stuff. They were clearly small time builders.
I have never seen that before, and I have been in construction all my life. Most were father and son types, and I found it interesting that even the sons had thick accents. I kept thinking to myself ” where are these guys from? I bet Toronto”.
I got a kick out of them, they were staring at my wife, all of them. My wife is beautiful in the extreme, Croatian.
To bad boys, she’s mine, go back to building your crappy homes.

#134 Bardbarian on 06.10.14 at 1:07 am

Mr. Turner,

thank you for all you do. I think your blog is the best thing I’ve found on the internet.

#135 dienekes on 06.10.14 at 1:16 am

Also read an article the other night which says house prices in Kalowna are down 20-30% in the last three years. Is that true?
Google canadian cities where house prices have actually dropped

#136 Tony on 06.10.14 at 1:42 am

We all remember Deak-Perera back around 1980 and see the same thing today with the Canadian housing market. A lot of people in a hurry to lose all their money.

#137 Tony on 06.10.14 at 1:51 am

Re: #11 Lorenzo on 06.09.14 at 6:32 pm

You also missed the lineups in downtown Toronto out on the sidewalks to buy gold in 1980. That was back when everyone had money.

#138 Herf on 06.10.14 at 2:04 am

“This is a new development of 48 homes in the GTA’s distant Markham, near Buttonville airport . . . ”

Who in their right mind would choose to live near an airport? Buttonville might not be Pearson or YVR and I don’t know what kind or how much air traffic flies in/out of the place on a regular basis, but I can see these new home buyers getting a rude awakening from noise emanating from airport and flight operations. Then watch/hear them whine about it. Then in the future maybe the airport expands and becomes more busy/noisy and the whining increases. Then when the beleaguered home owners try to sell their houses they find nobody wants to live there because of the noise.

#139 cynically on 06.10.14 at 2:09 am

#106 – so that is HAM. Does the money come out of that plugged, tubular- looking thing on the left side and who unplugs it when it arrives in Canada as I’ve never seen it in pictures of the RE sell-offs.

#140 Future Expatriate on 06.10.14 at 2:36 am

Yep, have to agree. Look at all those Chinese….

blond-haired women.

#141 Andrew Woburn on 06.10.14 at 3:04 am

We seem to have forgotten what “racism” actually means. Here are some thoughts from a British online publication “Spiked”run by self-described Marxists.

“There is a new consensus, especially in the media, which says the problem of racism is far greater today than it was in the past. The idea that racism is on the march was routinely expressed following the surge in votes for Eurosceptic parties in the recent EU elections. The stock reaction to anyone who raises questions about immigration is to accuse them of being racist.”

http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/its-just-not-true-that-racism-is-on-the-rise/15087#.U5astvldWZk

#142 Setting the Reord Straight on 06.10.14 at 3:10 am

@55
‘Anyone other than First Nations were immigrants at one time.’

No! That is not true. Stop making things up.

#143 Foreign Student on 06.10.14 at 3:25 am

I can’t believe the racism here. My family bought a house in Markham AFTER I was accepted to York University. I pay an international student fee and subsidize other students. I needed a place to live so we bought a house for a future investment. My parents said they will come here permanently after I finish my schooling.

Even though I don’t have my PR yet, I believe I have every right same as a resident because I pay a premium to be in Canada. And I don’t apologize that I want to live in Markham because many of my people are there.

#144 OneMoreThing on 06.10.14 at 4:06 am

Guess I should have held my Markham Bungalow from 1993 onward!

#145 Harry Wilson on 06.10.14 at 4:21 am

On this site, we often have a laugh at the expense of the Greater Fools, call them hipsters, HAM, and hornies, just to distance ourselves from them. The pictures, however, are a bit of a reality check. Seeing the buyers, we see that they are just young families, trying to do the right thing, perhaps oblivious to where this could lead. Life is throwing them a left hook, and they’re leaning into it. Makes me a little sad.

—————————————————–

From today’s comments:

“I’ve noted one white dude, I think he couod be an agent”

“They’re all Chinese. One can’t deny it.”

“i am quite certain they are cash buyers”

We can only hope that they use their psychic superpowers for good, and not evil.

—————————————————–

As to the comments that everyone buying a house is Chinese (all Asians are Chinese, right?), did y’all notice how many of those Chinese people looked white? One sneaky Chinese lady even dyed her kid’s hair blonde, to try to fool us, but we’re too smart for that.

Seriously, though, Mr. Turner, if any of the racist mofos that have infested your site lately came into your home and spewed this shit, you’d kneecap them with your cane and throw them into the gutter. Well, this site is also your home, and we are guests. Democracy is swell, but sometimes you have to be a vengeful dictator.

We won’t mind.

#146 2CntsCdn on 06.10.14 at 7:07 am

#138 Herf
Who wants to live near an airport?
I heard Buttonville airport has been sold. Actually to a company formed by and with the long time owners (a well known family in Aurora). It will be developed on. There’s been pressure to get the airport out of there for many years (area buildings were limited to height) and way too many houses around now. The wheels of “progress” keep on turning and mans march towards oblivion moves forward.

#147 Joe on 06.10.14 at 7:10 am

I know you won’t admit it Garth, but the reason this ‘mania’ doesn’t exist in small no-name suburban towns across the border in Michigan (or wherever) is because of immigration, specifically those coming from Asia, but no worries they’re no longer seen as foreigners as most of them have canadian citizenship now.

Just look at where most immigration is going (GTA & Metro Van) and see where this “mania” is happening. It’s NO coincidence!!

Why would anyone immigrate to no-name suburbs in small Michigan towns? — Garth

#148 Franco on 06.10.14 at 7:22 am

@99 — I think you are right, but I do see prices go flat eventually, but down, no way and not in this are of Toronto.

#149 Croossbordershopper on 06.10.14 at 7:41 am

And people laugh at me of what i am doing in buffalo. No land transfer tax to buy any house in new york, no real estate agent to worry about since all my transactions are a one pager quick dead deal, i tell people its simpler to buy a house in the us then buy a used car in Canada. In Canada its e-test and safety, then the plates to the ministry for taxes and registration change. Buying a home is a one pager give him cash(thats right, cash), go downtown and submit your one pager, and yup that crappy house is yours. Yes i am on my own with no warranty, but you kick the tires of the house as much as possible before buying. its only 10 grand, a lot less downside then the crappy built 700 grand those markham people are buying. These homes are solid 80 year old homes, my buddies from Toronto came down to see and say ya, its a solid old house. needs work but with cheap labour and materials should be a good rental.
never get in a lineup for anything, especially paying 700grand for it. They should be taking you out not the other way around.
i suspect those homes in Markham dont cost more than 200grand to build. well, My landscapper from buffalo came up and did my front, new shrubs, a tree etc, brick patio thing, pretty and 1200 bucks. the quote was 6 grand from a local canadian guy.
Everything in Canada is overpriced, labour, materials etc. even profit is overpriced, yes profit, people make too much here. regulations are high, permits and costs and a lot of hassle.
unlike others i dont think real estate in Canada will go down, immigration and a definite cultural difference then yankies. Canadians will sacrafice their life for some drywall and cement, be on the road 2 hours a day to commute etc. Americans wont do that and definitely wont sacrafice 35 to 40 percent of their income for that shack. Persuit of Happiness, something Canadians should embrace. life is short to wait in line for anything.

#150 Bank it with me on 06.10.14 at 7:49 am

I’m with Smoking Man on this one. No hockey stick yet in Toronto market. The housing crash is not a one size fits all. You have house horniness out west in Vancouver where prices creep up by month, slowing sales and high inventories in Victoria. Out East, housing starts are on the decline in Halifax, but steady ship in Charlottetown. We have not seen the end of the spike in Toronto, and I think it will get even more insane as the last remaining house hornies attempt to buy at all cost. And yes, population/immigration has a lot to do with it. In places where immigration/population is relatively flat, prices are level or declining, in places where immigration/population is increasing, prices continue to go up. Simple supply and demand at the moment, but the balance will tip, it always does.

#151 TO Renter on 06.10.14 at 7:50 am

Re #138
Not to worry, Buttonville is closing as an airport in 2015. Land being redeveloped. Air traffic moving to Oshawa. Sad to see it go – earned my single engine wings there.

#152 Bank it with me on 06.10.14 at 7:53 am

Foreign Student, whether you are real or not, this is the wrong way to think. If Canada is to succeed, we need to all blend together instead of building cantons that match homelands. I am also from “away” but I live amongst many of different backgrounds, but we consider ourselves Canadian. Multiculturalism has been proven to be a dead horse. Anyway, no more digressing. Just think about it.

#153 Hillbilly on 06.10.14 at 7:53 am

Foreign Student – comment # 143

You pay a premium to go to school in Canada?

I am so sick of hearing this crap.

You have NO IDEA of what you are talking about.

The paltry premium you pay over a Canadian student DOES NOT EVEN BEGIN TO COVER THE TRUE COSTS OF EDUCATING YOU !

You are getting a bargain and you don’t even know it.

Take the overall costs (everything from teacher salaries, pensions, building maintenance, utilities, services etc.) of your school and divide by the number of students attending.
At this point, you are way ahead and no, you do NOT subsidize other students.

Then lets add the costs of planning, financing, construction and landscaping the campus. Not to mention keeping it that way for years before you came along.

Works out that you pay pennies on the dollar compared to what it really costs to have and run that school.

Your taxes didn’t pay for this, we Canadians did.

How do I know this, we had two very close family friends that were Chancellors / Presidents of major Cdn universities who pointed out this sorry fact.
Besides, all info above is public domain, go figure it out for yourself.

Oh, and do you have OHIP? If so, guess what else we are paying for you.

And , btw, I wonder if a Canadian would be able to attend school in your country or have the right to purchase freehold property in your country of origin and have their parents move there.

Racism?
Not much in Canada generally, but I can see how you might be sensitive to it as you want to be with “your people”.

#154 Hillbilly on 06.10.14 at 7:59 am

natrx – comment # 130

“Most of them are buying with cash anyway…”

Where is your proof?
Link?

You just repeat crap you hear

#155 Hillbilly on 06.10.14 at 8:10 am

Realtor #1 GTA – comment # 109

Yeah, and that’s your UNBIASED opinion, right ?

#156 Mr. Frugal on 06.10.14 at 8:14 am

I only buy Stanfields at the Bay, when they’re on sale. I can’t see why the same shouldn’t be true of real estate.

#157 I love real estate on 06.10.14 at 8:17 am

Nothing in this story says anything to suggest RE is going down.

As I will demonstrate conclusively this weekend, the premises for a real estate bust or bubble are false and there are no parallel cases to rely on to support that very old, stale thesis.

These people are the smart ones, dealing with reputable builders to secure their family wealth while it is affordable to do so.

Get out of your parents’ basements, look into the sun, borrow some money for a down payment and get into the market before you are frozen out forever.

#158 Hillbilly on 06.10.14 at 8:19 am

Former Saskie – comment # 57

“This is so sad.”

No, this is so Canada.

Pathetic.

#159 Ray Skunk on 06.10.14 at 8:19 am

#138

Buttonville is closing – as Garth alluded to, it’s earmarked to become a huge subdivision; Markham-on-the-404.

#160 Trampled on 06.10.14 at 8:31 am

Fields and farmland sacrificed for another stupid housing development. No wonder Monarch butterflies are going extinct. Suburban sprawl never seems to end. Now that’s something to fear.

#161 Condo Minion on 06.10.14 at 8:48 am

#86 R – you said:

“This is what malinvestment looks like. Suburbia isn’t the disease, but the result of the disease; a pathological need to own a house that combines all of the worst elements of city and rural living with none of the benefits.”

#91 Kreditanstalt – you said:

“I’m puzzled why so many people want to live in a nameless distant suburb, in a cookie-cutter particleboard-and-vinyl house, at an enormous cost.

Is there any wilderness nearby? Parks? Shops? Schools within walking distance? Neighbours home during 9-to-5? Ocean or lakes?

Perhaps they actually WORK in this place and need to live near their jobs. Who knows? But it better be one hell of a high-paying and secure job.”

———————

This is why suburbia will be the first red flag for price drops in the GTA, and it is already happening in smaller centres. It will also be the slowest to recover.

In places like Brampton, Ajax, Whitby and areas around, you can see some of this unravelling already. Lots of people are only holding their finances together by renting out their basements. There are cultural clashes around zoning because some poorer family groups want multiple families in the same dwellings. (So much for the suburban ideal of bucolic low density life!) Poverty is growing. Parental oversight is on the decline. The same place in Brampton where that 10 year old boy so tragically died this week was the site of the shooting of another child last year.

http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/death-of-child-in-fire-not-the-first-tragedy-to-hit-brampton-s-ardglen-drive-1.1858769

You’d have to price suburbia at less than half its current cost to make it a sensible choice in terms of real utility.

Suburbia is not “country” living – I have actually heard some call it that! It is the worst of two worlds, combined.

Be ready, though, “R” and “Kreditanstalt” – you may get some flaming from the suburban boosters here today for your comments.

Well, actually, tonight…after about 7:30…when their commute home is over (If they don’t want to stop at Costco first)

#162 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.10.14 at 8:54 am

@ #128 Not an economist on 06.09.14 at 11:40 pm

…..
A million is worth far more than the average person’s labour. And people blow 1.3 million on a condo, semi or detached in buttf-k Markham? You’re not trendy and hip, you’re in f-in MARKHAM. The hell are you paying a premium for? Bust out google maps and zoom out a bit. Look to the north, east or northeast. Does that look like land scarcity to you? …

—————————-
Best Comment of the Day:

“You’re not trendy and hip, you’re in f-in MARKHAM. The hell are you paying a premium for?”

But – in some bizarre way, it IS trendy… saying you’re buying in some new burb gets you into the herd.

The same crowd drives to Vaughn Mills / Halton Hills Outlets and lines up outside to buy the same Michael Kors and Tory Burch and Kate Spade bags every week.

#163 shawn on 06.10.14 at 8:56 am

Tony’s Balony

from 137:

You also missed the lineups in downtown Toronto out on the sidewalks to buy gold in 1980. That was back when everyone had money.

********************************************
Everyone in Toronto has money in 1980?

I’m guessing Tony was not around or not old enough to read newspapers in 1980.

In fact people were reeling from years of stagflation. Unemployment was high and getting higher.

People were shell shocked at the price of gasoline.

There actually was real inflation in those days.

“Everyone had money”. Ya right.

#164 Dupcheck on 06.10.14 at 9:05 am

I thought money made the rules.
I thought wrong, apparently the condo pre-sale offices with their rules are dangling people with money how they want and where they want.
Sign here or no condo for you.
No do not read the fine print or no condo for you….ha…ha…ha…,
Sign here,
Thank you,
Come again…

Sheeple with money!!!!

#165 2CntsCdn on 06.10.14 at 9:14 am

#157 I love real estate
OMG! So prices will rise forever? 1 million, 2 million, 3 million? Don’t you see what has caused this? Don’t you see the dangers? And not just to the poor cash strapped families chocking on a 5 and $600K mortgages for 20 years but to us the public who is backing the $550 billion of fools debt. The banks aren’t on the hook … we are. It’s all artificial …. it’s not built on anything concrete …. we need real jobs (and not only RE based jobs). What is going on is so dangerous ….. for the whole country …. and it won’t repair in 6 or 12 months … more like 10 or 20 years. To write what you write is so short sighted. If 5% of the people wake up and try to unload there houses the whole thing collapses. It’s like a nuclear reactor out of control …. it keeps feeding off of itself …. it can’t stop without catastrophic failure. So many broke drowning millionaires. EVERYTHING has an end … and to believe otherwise is to not understand human nature, economics and the world itself. So few people will have the balls to actually get out with this hysteria based equity gift in their pockets.

#166 Ontario's Left Coast on 06.10.14 at 9:29 am

#128 – Not an Economist

You are my new hero… Brilliant assessment!

#167 Jimers on 06.10.14 at 9:39 am

DELETED

#168 valleyrenter on 06.10.14 at 9:40 am

Sure is a lot of hubbub about a few black haired Canadians in the pics. 1st pic I only see about 3 young couples that fit in the “yellow peril” category, the older ones sure appear to be their parents. That’s a generational thing when buying real estate, doesn’t matter what hair colour you have, pa and usually ma as well want to come and check over the young’uns “investment”.

2nd pic sure seems to be overrun with “white peril”, (now that would be funny to read, can see the headline now “White developers buying up property in Vancouvers Chinatown pushing out locals, buy now or be priced out forever”).

3rd pic, meh, just happened to take a picture of a few Canadian families with black hair going over plans. Once again, appears to be couples with their parents. Kinda brutal the gentleman front and centre is wearing a yellow golf shirt, “peril” anyone?

It appears that their marketing scheme worked quite well for the developers. Hats off to them, maybe other businesses could learn a thing or two from them. They marketed to their target audience very well, and the proof is in the sales numbers. Anytime you can target market that directly, with an emotional purchase, your closing ratios go through the roof. Couple that with “limited supply” and you’ve got gold!

#169 Bubblicious on 06.10.14 at 9:44 am

#93 truthful on 06.09.14 at 10:01 pm
amazing to see that only oriental people are the ones in those pics buying these homes.

They’re buying homes???
At first glance I thought they were playing at a craps table.

#170 Old Man on 06.10.14 at 9:50 am

There is something strange going on in Ottawa and the rumours are flying. Will an early election be called or is Caesar going to step aside?

#171 HD on 06.10.14 at 9:57 am

#128 Not an economist on 06.09.14 at 11:40 pm

You are on to something….I like your post.

I’ve drawn a similar analogy to so many friends/relatives in an attempt to explain my position to no avail.

Financial Freedom For Life vs Impressing The Jones. No brainer to me yet virtually no one gets it.

You are totally correct:

In the Age of Information, ignorance is a choice.

Best,

HD

#172 Dual Citizen In Canada on 06.10.14 at 10:03 am

Lots of Landlords in my area are realizing the rent they are asking, noone is willing to pay. Rents are coming down since noone is taking the bait. The real estate agent with his, blah, blah, high demand area nonsense, is going nowhere when it hits my ear drum. I’m holding out some more, then I’ll make my move. Gotta love it! Who needs to buy in market of dropping rental rates?

#173 avenirv on 06.10.14 at 10:09 am

looking at the buyers, aren’t they the majority hams or related to them ?
in china the government started to punish the officials with wife and/or kids holding foreign passports or residence.

#174 David Hawke on 06.10.14 at 10:24 am

“Bring checks but no lawyer.” With morons like that buying it’s no wonder that in ON a Spanish conglomerate owns the 407 and the majority of bus companies (Stock, First Student, Greyhound, Trentway, Coach Canada, Megabus are British owned!

#175 Smoking Man on 06.10.14 at 10:37 am

#170 Old Man on 06.10.14 at 9:50 am

Be careful of what you wish for. As much as I loath Cease.

Think of Big Bird in the cockpit..

Or even worce… The cap and Trade communists get control.

That’s scary….

#176 Marie on 06.10.14 at 10:43 am

It amazes me that Canadian espouse to embrace egalitarianism, fairness and equal opportunities for all, yet post such racist comments on this blog!

#177 Daisy Mae on 06.10.14 at 10:57 am

#152 Bank it with me: “If Canada is to succeed, we need to all blend together instead of building cantons that match homelands…..multiculturalism has been proven to be a dead horse.”

*********************

I agree.

#178 drooski on 06.10.14 at 10:58 am

how does this end? RE prices go up 10% per year and by the time people have moved in their property value has appreciated by more than $100k?

I feel like I have seen this post many times and the end has always been the same. Homeowners are winning.

#179 Daisy Mae on 06.10.14 at 11:02 am

#153 Hillbilly: “Racism? Not much in Canada generally, but I can see how you might be sensitive to it as you want to be with “your people”.”

*****************

That particular comment was very telling, Foreign Student. I agree with Hillbilly.

#180 just desserts on 06.10.14 at 11:09 am

This will be remembered as a classic mania in the order of the Tulip Bulb Craze in Holland.

“To normal people, it’s mania. This is 1999 and Nortel all over again. It’s the desperation to buy Bre-X in 1995. The obsession over an ounce of gold in 2011. Houses in Florida or Vegas in 2004. It’s Tickle-me-Elmo, pet rocks and Backstreet Boys all rolled up together.”

Whats the old saw? “You don’t know you’re in a bubble if you’re in one”.

#181 ALL CAPITAL LETTERS AND RUN ON SENTENCES on 06.10.14 at 11:19 am

@ 173

No. HAM is foreign money coming into Canada.

Although my experience with foreign investors is limited and anecdotal, I have never seen foreign investors wear shorts, t-shirts, baseball caps or jeans, backpacks and shopping bags, or drag along toddlers, to negotiate an investment. Business suits are the order.

I only see about three people in that category in those pictures, with zero indication they do not represent the developers.

However, as a resident of Markham, I do have substantial experience with the local and regional demographics. Remove the indicators of real estate from the above pictures and you would not be able distinguished the scene from a museum or Loblaws.

In this case, perhaps a picture is not worth a thousand words. Don’t read into more than is there.

The issue is the pressure sales techniques being employed, which based on my (biased) analysis of the pictures is being utilized against purchasers who are representative of the local area.

cheers.

#182 drooski on 06.10.14 at 11:36 am

And I don’t agree that the majority of people in the pics are of Asian decent (although there are a lot in the pics) but Markham is basically a giant Chinatown. Drive west up highway 7 from Warden to Bayview, the businesses are predominantly Chinese. Asians want to live in Markham and Richmond Hill. People from Hong Kong used to refer to Richmond Hill as “Rich Man’s Hill”. If they have the money they can live wherever they want.

#183 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 06.10.14 at 11:38 am

#161 Condo Minion on 06.10.14 at 8:48 am
You’d have to price suburbia at less than half its current cost to make it a sensible choice in terms of real utility.

Suburbia is not “country” living – I have actually heard some call it that! It is the worst of two worlds, combined.

Be ready, though, “R” and “Kreditanstalt” – you may get some flaming from the suburban boosters here today for your comments.

Well, actually, tonight…after about 7:30…when their commute home is over (If they don’t want to stop at Costco first)

_____________________________________________

Not everyone wants to live Downtown, within city limits, or high in the sky.
I live in Oakville, within walking distance of several nice restaurants, a grocery store, liqueur store, beer store, convenience store, and as it happens two very nice Cuban cigar stores. Oh I forgot i can walk to my marina.
We have ample bike paths and parks, I can walk to the theater (performing arts type) and If needed can take to GO train downtown in about 20 minute to go schmoooz with the likes of the hoytie toyties in Yuppyville. I like my space, Its quite and calming. I dont know where you have experienced suburbia at its worst but it is like every other neighborhood you have to pick a good one and one that works for you. So enjoy your view from up there while I’m down here sitting by the lake.

#184 Ray Skunk on 06.10.14 at 11:45 am

#169

They’re buying homes???
At first glance I thought they were playing at a craps table.
——————————————-

I’d rather be playing at the craps table. More chance of financial success.

#172 – re: rents:
Interesting and I have anecdotal evidence to back this up (my previous LL had to reduce the asking cost from when I moved in during an upswing, absolute crickets at the previous price).

There will always be those willing to spend $1500-$2k a month on renting an apartment/condo (those who need the flexibility to move quickly, for example).

However, I wonder if a lot of those who in the past would previously be happy spending that on rent have now jumped into ownership, leaving the rental market more skewed towards the bottom end who can’t afford either high rent or a mortgage.

#185 DM in C on 06.10.14 at 11:53 am

“like all GOOD albertans, i’m originally from saskatchewan. ”

If you only think the good Albertas are from SASK, why don’t you head back?

Oh right. No jobs. Only thing going for ya is your CFL franchise. How do you count to 12, again?

#186 TorontoBull on 06.10.14 at 11:55 am

@161
these are all valid points. I will only add that the prevelance of rented basements is MUCH higher in 416 than 905. The vast majority of people I know who bought in 416 can only afford the mortgage if the basement is rented, which in my view affects quality of life, as you need to share common areas and put up with others people bullshit…

#187 chapter 9 on 06.10.14 at 12:07 pm

#45 True
Our neighbors down the block listed there place for $770K sat for a long time and then a family from china bought it. The next purchase was a franchise for fast food in a mall and candidates have to have the financial means to support the complete cost of the business with at least 50% originating from unencumbered cash. Add in the Lexus and Volvo suv’s I would say not bad for being here only three years!!

#188 Old Man on 06.10.14 at 12:12 pm

#175 Smoking Man – Big Bird has bought a new residence out of the Province and the word is out he might be going into a business venture with a new direction in life. Something about a hotel – restaurant operation in a place called Lunenburg.

#189 April on 06.10.14 at 12:24 pm

#178 – Only if they sell near or at the top. As has been said many time ‘nothing goes up forever’ it eventually topples over.

#190 waiting on 06.10.14 at 12:27 pm

Well, as this post has become a forum for opinions on immigration I thought I’d ad my two cents worth. Who wouldn’t want to live in a (relatively) clean, safe country where you have the freedom to express your beliefs.
According to National Geographic, Native Americans are believed to have descended from northeast Asia, arriving over a land bridge between Siberia and Alaska some 12,000 years ago and then migrating across North and South America.
If there is a “yellow peril” maybe they’re just coming back to reclaim their land. (I hope they don’t kick my white English/Irish butt out…)

#191 Daisy Mae on 06.10.14 at 12:33 pm

#182 Drooski: “Markham is basically a giant Chinatown. Drive west up highway 7 from Warden to Bayview, the businesses are predominantly Chinese. Asians want to live in Markham and Richmond Hill. People from Hong Kong used to refer to Richmond Hill as “Rich Man’s Hill”.”

********************

Guess that’s what prompted Asians to literally take over Richmond, BC — ‘rich man’.

#192 Piccaso on 06.10.14 at 12:33 pm

Why would anyone immigrate to no-name suburbs in small Michigan towns? — Garth

Small town Wetaskiwin (outside Edmonton) is half immigrants and the other half is First Nation

Albeit, they could be TFW’s. The owners of the motels and fast foods are East Indian and the workers are Asian of some sort.

#193 Butch on 06.10.14 at 12:40 pm

Knowing how it (might/maybe/5050 chance?) end 10-15-20 years from now isn’t really reassuring Garth.

#194 Jonathan on 06.10.14 at 12:59 pm

Holy Crap Wheres the Tylenol #183

I like what Kreditanstalt and the others had to say, rings true for me.

You can’t seriously compare Oakville with the 905 area code suburbia elsewhere. Especially in Old Oakville, by the lake, you’ve got a real small town feel. Been there with family quite a few times, nice place to hang out.

Have you checked out the demographics of your area, in contrast to a place like Brampton? Oakville is about 92% white, European origin and higher income. Brampton is about 70% lower than median income, non-white with barely 50% first language English speakers.

Income levels and house prices in Oakville are way higher, access to the lake, culture and recreation is quite good, – not exactly what I think of when I think of suburbia.

Oakville has grown by only about 35-40% the last 15-20 years. Moderate and well-managed overall. Brampton has exploded from just over 250,000 to over 520,000 people since 1996. A classic example of suburban sprawl, out of control.

Apples and oranges, fella.

P.S. Did you notice you used the word “neighbourhood” to describe part of Oakville? How many people use that word in the rest of suburbia? Not many. Maybe they’d say ‘on our street’ or something, but those places lack any real sense of neighbourhood or community. That’s why we moved. Plus the taxes were higher than we pay now in the city.

#195 Gainsaywhodare on 06.10.14 at 1:01 pm

#153 – Hillbilly

I do not disagree with your points. However, the cost of education would be lower for every students and taxpayers if your very close family friends do not earn $400,000 a year.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Four+academics+applying+share+role+University+Alberta+presidency/9916127/story.html

#196 calgaryPhantom on 06.10.14 at 1:05 pm

With reference to all the multi-culture and racism posts. It`s perfectly natural and consistent with history.

When times are good in a country, it welcomes immigrants, because it needs them. It needs their manpower and it needs their skills.

When times are bad, the same country and it`s people
hate them and want them out. Suddenly they forget their services in contributing to the country`s wealth and development.

Sad, but that`s the truth.

#197 Blacksheep on 06.10.14 at 1:31 pm

“Offshore money is not responsible for $1 million Van Specials. — Garth”

“There is zero evidence those people are not from the Toronto region. — Garth”
—————————————
From when, where, or if they came, is irrelevant, they (willing buyers) are here (and in many global hot spots) pushing markets ever higher, far beyond traditional multiples of local earnings.
—————————————
“Run with the crowd. Be my guest. — Garth”
—————————————
Well now this, IS the relevant discussion.

Does one sit on the sidelines (did it for 5 years) assuming fundamentals will once again apply (clearly they currently do not) or join the fray in anticipation of a 1 million $ house becoming a 1.2 million $ house, in only a few short years.

Has the peak of a 70 year debt super cycle and the end of cheap oil, forced the very visible hand of central banks to take whatever action necessary, to keep economies growing? With the unprecedented, simulative events of the past 5 years, is it so hard to believe, we are just maybe, in uncharted waters?

Do personal / gov. debt numbers mean the same thing as they did 50 years ago. Has the ability to service debt superseded, the actual % carried?

For many here, this will be an all in decision, as current home costs do not allow for the application of the rule of 90.

You place your bets and you take your chances.

#198 Old Man on 06.10.14 at 1:37 pm

Poloot will be taking an unprecedented step to hold a news conference at 10:30 AM on Thursday. Could it be that he might have something to say which will effect the voting in the Ontario election? This becomes a conflict of interest, so pay attention to his buzz words, as the timing is all wrong. This smells!

#199 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 06.10.14 at 1:54 pm

#194 Jonathan on 06.10.14 at 12:59 pm

While I can agree Oakville and Brampton are two diametrically opposed entities. They are never the less they are suburbs. As I mentioned yesterday I used to live in Detroit back in the seventies. Beautiful area and neighborhood. A neighborhood is what you make of it. If you don’t like your neighborhood then you move. For example go to Bramalea in the Woods subdivision by Queen Street and Dixie Road in Brampton, you would swear you are in my part of Oakville (minus the lake). A very nice neighborhood. I have friends who live there Go to Streetsville in the heart of Mississauga, Clarkson, Port Credit, Meadowvale same thing. All I am saying is you need to pick a nice area, not a town by name. Hell is that were the case Toronto is full of nice places and hellholes.

#200 saskatoon on 06.10.14 at 2:01 pm

“Multiculturalism has utterly failed.”

– Angela Merkel

#201 2CntsCdn on 06.10.14 at 2:02 pm

While we’re at it … and to add fuel to the racial (and WTF!) fire … someone please take a photo of Cathedral Town just north of Markham just east of the 404 Hwy. People outside the GTA (and Ontario) just gotta see this development. I’m not so sure about Canada’s “mosaic” immigration philosophy (I think melting pot is a long term smarter idea) ….. and I don’t know how this one got through the planning department.

#202 Ralph Cramdown on 06.10.14 at 2:03 pm

#194 Jonathan — “You can’t seriously compare Oakville with the 905 area code suburbia elsewhere. Especially in Old Oakville, by the lake, you’ve got a real small town feel.”

Twenty square blocks, maybe. And it feels like a small town on a holiday long weekend, because traffic along the Lakeshore never has a small town feel. East and west along the Lakeshore, it’s all McMansion and lot value soon-to-be-McMansion. And if I blindfolded you and dumped you out anywhere along Highway 5, you’d have very few clues as to what 905 suburb you were in — completely generic. Maybe because I’m older than you, but I see Oakville as exactly the average suburb, with areas varying from typical midcentury aspirational through fin-de-seicle excess to pack-em-in late-cycle densities.

Full disclosure: Still overweight the energy sector, and listening to Rush’s ‘Subdivisions’ (they hail from one suburb over).

#203 saskatoon on 06.10.14 at 2:10 pm

EVERYBODY is racist.

EVERYBODY judges and generalizes the “other”–whatever the “other” happens to be.

This is human nature.

NOT EVERYBODY IS DISCRIMINATORY, HOWEVER.

Hopefully, clarifying terms will help the dogs out of the rut.

#204 Kevin on 06.10.14 at 2:32 pm

@Foreign Student (#143)

I can’t believe the racism here. […] I want to live in Markham because many of my people are there.

So you feel more comfortable being around your own race than you do around other races.

And you “can’t believe the racism here.”

*boggle*

#205 avenirv on 06.10.14 at 2:46 pm

@181
in the 1st picture there 8, I stop.

the Chinese government started to fire and prosecute Chinese officials with wife/kids holding foreign passports or residence.
why ?
they give the answer too: siphoning money out of china.
they are not investors, they are Chinese sending their money to a safe heaven. how they got that money ?!

Worry about your own life. — Garth

#206 Laughingcon on 06.10.14 at 2:48 pm

Re: #5 Smoking Man

I hear laughingcon capitulated and was in the line..
==================================

Heheheh, he is here and is watching the elections – this is potentially what will kill the real estate in Ontario but the odds are not very good.

In the last election the Liberal won with only 1,625,102 votes.

However there are now (as of May 2014) 1,348,600 “public servants” in Ontario and their numbers jumped by 23,200 in May alone (and the Ontario “public administration” alone – increase of 11,200 people – from 354.900 in April to 366.100 now in May – CANSIM table 282-0011).

All these people do have spouses, some have children of voting age – one only can guess how they will vote.

And perhaps we have close to One Million “public sector” retirees thanks to the Freedom 55 and the “age factor of 85” (or even lower in some cases). And one can guess how they will vote too…

Die realtors, die…
The Laughingcon

#207 learningfromyou on 06.10.14 at 2:58 pm

I read the daily posts, newspapers in the morning, etc and sometimes I imagine for a short period of time that I’m in the space watching the Earth as a social experiment.

People wake up, and countless times per day the word money come into our mind, bad news, corruption, crimes, death, power fights, you name it.

Sadly I think is the human redefinition of the word ‘jungle’

I imagine the Earth as a living body, where all the cells are not working together, like a disease in our body, like a left hand not helping the right one in the daily duties.

How many good things could we achieve if the concept of money was not included in the formula?,

how many scientists could wake up every morning, focusing only in the next discovery for the whole humanity and going to the store in the afternoon to grab fresh food that were produced with the best quality product, in the most natural way, without plastic and bad chemical products on them, only because those that produce them were not thinking about money but to provide the best service to the whole society, they did not want to grow a chicken in a week.

In that fantastic world you schedule a car to come and pick you up and you do not need to drive it anymore and the scientist could seat in the back of it still thinking about the experiment he left in the back, at the end the car is freed to serve another citizen in the society resulting in less car necessary for all us.

How far the humanity could go in that different world?

For sure we are not ready to it yet, but the things available for us first became ideas for some, later they became reality.
In the past, nobody believed in those who thought that a heavy plane could flight, like now, the humanity is not ready to believe a world without money.

I come regularly to this blog to learn about finances, because I’m part of this world. I also take precious minutes of my free time to imagine and live in the world described above.

The humanity might be not ready for that type of society, but I am.

Just google Venus Project, somebody dedicated his whole life to pave our way to the future

#208 Ole Doberman on 06.10.14 at 3:29 pm

Buyer beware next recession ain’t so far away:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/06/10/2016-the-year-from-hell/

“While the ultimate socialist has her eyes on 2016, so does our model. We have been projecting this target not only for the potential rise in Third Party votes, the Sovereign Debt Big Bang, but the turning point in pensions as well. Social Security is negative true, but what will also turn negative is 401Ks. That’s right, it is time to cash in the chips. There will be more net withdrawals in 2016 than deposits. We are headed downhill in every possible direction. So as they say, cheer up. This may be the last of the old old days.”

Canada played the low interest rate card last time, what will it play this time, it’ll take a rabbit out of a hat.

#209 Smoking Man on 06.10.14 at 3:47 pm

Garth my plagiarized post vanished showing all liberals scandals. .

To long?
Because it was a copy paste?
You’ve gone tree hugger?
Potential law suit against you,?
You just felt like it?
All of the above?

Buy an ad. — Garth

#210 straight six on 06.10.14 at 3:50 pm

DELETED

#211 Jonathan on 06.10.14 at 3:58 pm

#199 Holy Crap and #202 Ralph

Interesting responses. It seems you are both making a case that Oakville is much like other suburbs, but Holy Crap argues that is a good thing, and Ralph, perhaps, not so much.

I do think the demographics say a lot, and there is an “old money suburb” quality to Oakville that few other places have, at least in the southern part. (Full disclosure – I wouldn’t waste much time north of the lakeshore)

True, the Lakeshore is a speedway or a traffic jam most days, too.

I expect Oakville to have more stickiness in the coming price drops. Brampton, Milton, Ajax, Whitby and many more will feel the full impact of gravity.

Ralph – ahh, Rush

“Any escape might help to smooth the unattractive truth
But the suburbs have no charms to soothe the restless dreams of youth”

(I remember too my youth where you could still say “it’s one suburb over” – now all those spaces have been filled in, by more suburbs)

#212 Bill Gable on 06.10.14 at 3:59 pm

These morons will get what they deserve – and you best believe I am not going to be voting for any Political entity that even thinks of bailing any of them out, with my tax dollars.

People are like sheep and have (as discussed by Garth, many times) very little real knowledge of finances and mortgages.

I am not empathetic. You throw your money away – that’s your business.

#213 Retired Boomer - WI on 06.10.14 at 3:59 pm

#128 Not AN Economist

Best Post of the Day!!!

NOW you prove the young generation can indeed THINK!!!

Think for themselves, and their own best interests!!

Bravo!!

PS on a big enough spread the weed can grow wild…

#214 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 06.10.14 at 4:00 pm

#209 Smoking Man on 06.10.14 at 3:47 pm
Garth my plagiarized post vanished showing all liberals scandals. .

To long?
Because it was a copy paste?
You’ve gone tree hugger?
Potential law suit against you,?
You just felt like it?
All of the above?

Buy an ad. — Garth

____________________________________________

Smoking Man just make them up all scandals will eventually come to pass for all parties!
Its the same as the infinite number of Monkeys typing on and infinite number of ……………………………..
You know!

#215 Lover on 06.10.14 at 4:08 pm

As far as the international student who wants to be with his people, i think i know what he means.
He wasn’t to be with his own kind so that he can be more comfortable in a shower when he goes to local community centre.
Enough said.

#216 Dual Citizen In Canada on 06.10.14 at 4:11 pm

The observation should never be about race. Each individual is to be held responsible for the decisions they make in life. Hindsight is 20/20 and time heals all wounds.

#217 Bob Rice on 06.10.14 at 4:14 pm

Someone posted that there are 2.6 million Asians in Ontario! If you are talking about people of Chinese origin, you are WAY off… not even close.. there aren’t 2.6 in all of Canada… there aren’t 2.6 million Asians in Ontario even if you include Indians, Koreans, Vietnamese, etc… there are 2 cities that have large Asians (and I mean all of the above) pop; Vancoiver and Tarana… Mtl barely has 100K of all those groups… Calgary? They’d get lynched…

Fact is, outside of Brampton, Markham, Scarboro and parts of Richmond Hill, there really aren’t that many Asians in the GTA… Auroa, Oakville, Vauhan, Etoboke, the Shwaw, etc…

#218 Laughingcon on 06.10.14 at 4:20 pm

re:#211 Jonathan

Oh, yeah, Oakville.
And I am the cash man.

Makes you wonder why Oliver is opening a new location there.
Got anything to pawn???
Oakville will be a real gold mine (for some)

Die realtors, die…
The Laughingcon

#219 Moi on 06.10.14 at 4:20 pm

True, the Lakeshore is a speedway or a traffic jam most days, too.

I don’t drive into Toronto any more for this reason. Driving into Toronto isn’t too bad, but leaving Toronto is always a nightmare and takes twice as long as the GO Train does.

#220 gladiator on 06.10.14 at 4:26 pm

Would someone be considered racist if he/she hates a racist of a different race?

#221 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 06.10.14 at 4:49 pm

What a load of crap today. Wouldn’t blame you a bit Garth. As for the 48 lucky property slaves, well this sums it up.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJnKm6ftPu0

#222 shawn on 06.10.14 at 4:57 pm

Racist?

Many people seem to really hate racists, and also asians.

#223 Renter's Revenge! on 06.10.14 at 5:29 pm

@220 gladiator – “Would someone be considered racist if he/she hates a racist of a different race?”

Our society’s ethics require us to discriminate against other people for logical reasons only, so no. You hate them because they’re racist, which you consider bad. It has nothing to with their race.

There’s nothing wrong with discrimination though, as long as it’s logical.

If you’re a man, and you want to have kids, you need a woman. It’s not sexist to discriminate against men when your looking for someone to have kids with.

If you say women can’t do math, that’s sexist, because clearly some women can do math.

Saying that it’s rich Asian immigrants who are driving up our housing prices is racist, because it’s not just them. Many Canadians of Asian descent, and Canadians of non-Asian descent are also speculating on house prices as well. It’s not logical to single out Asian immigrants as the cause.

#224 Old Man on 06.10.14 at 5:33 pm

#222 shawn – racism is a symptom to blame others instead of themselves. The hatred fueled is a way of releasing frustration upon another person as it is cool to transfer it elsewhere. Its an escape valve away from reality of ones person to another; its the cowards way out.

#225 Sean on 06.10.14 at 5:46 pm

What’s sad is that this was already such an obvious, enormous and comical bubble… behavior already told us that. What we have now is utterly catastrophic. When you factor in the scale of the financial commitment to the individuals involved, you realize that this in fact dwarves those other bubbles. Boring, conservative, nondescript little Canada is finally hitting the big leagues with this one… WOW!

#226 Smoking Man on 06.10.14 at 5:50 pm

#222 shawn on 06.10.14 at 4:57 pm

The best way to avoid the dogma of a politically incorrect statement that might label you resist.

Do what I do…..

I loath and hate all of mankind equally..

#227 Sean on 06.10.14 at 5:57 pm

The racism and hatred on this blog sadden me greatly. I am tempted to call it a day here. — Garth

————

Don’t!! I agree with your sentiment… but these are Canadians, and these are the views of Canadians. Not all, of course, and not the ones we are proud of… but a decent percentage none the less. The racism and bigotry and hatred are all part of the mess we are creating with this bubble. And for all the Canadians that maintain that we are better, different, compassionate, etc… read what your fellow Canadians have to say… it is eye opening.

One of my biggest pet peeves is hearing Canadians rail on the US, and pretty much the rest of the world, blathering on about how great everything is in Canada. Living abroad now, it is pretty embarrassing to hear.. and most Canadians are unaware they even do it.

#228 Herf on 06.10.14 at 6:12 pm

#146, #151

I found an 2010 article in the National Post announcing the Buttonville closure. I wonder if the new owners/developers (and buyers) have considered the possibility of some other unforeseen “problems” arising, such as the following:


http://www.thespec.com/news-story/3849890-burlington-airpark-work-maddening/

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/2243860-a-tale-of-two-polluted-airports/

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/2200907-hamilton-airport-pollution-who-will-pay-/

I recall when the public library in my home town in BC decided to move into a larger facility, they bought a 3-story concrete building that had previously housed a car dealership and auto repair shop/garage. The library’s first rude awakening was learning (after they had bought the place) that the structure was not designed to hold the weight of 1000’s of books on the upper floors. (Paper weighs a lot. I know – I moved many times as a student (and since), packing along all my text books. Not fun).

The library’s second rude awakening was to learn that the land beneath the garage/dealership housed underground fuel storage tanks. Naturally, the tanks had leaked fuel into the surrounding soil and the Ministry of the Environment came along and ordered that the contaminated soil be cleaned up. I recall something like a few 1000 (or was it only a few 100) cubic yards of soil had to be removed before a new building could be erected upon the site. The old building (and probably the underground fuel storage tanks) had been built/installed back in the late 60’s/early 70’s. I doubt the tanks had ever been replaced, so they had started leaking somewhere within the 25-year or so time span prior to the building being knocked down for the new library.

#229 Old Man on 06.10.14 at 6:17 pm

#226 Smoking Man – you are playing it safe as you left out womankind.

#230 wallflower on 06.10.14 at 6:29 pm

I believe I have every right same as a resident because I pay a premium to be in Canada.
———–
Legally, no. Not the same rights. You can think what you want.
This reminds me of my Portuguese relatives who say, “I have every right to OHIP,” which they use when they visit two weeks per year, “because I have investments here.”

#231 Vangrrl on 06.10.14 at 7:25 pm

The term racism is being misused (as usual- much like how the term feminism is constantly misused). Racism is when you hate someone simply because of their race- for no reason but that. It may be a generalization to say you think rich overseas Chinese are driving up Canadian property prices, but that’s not in itself an indication you hate them. Perhaps you admire their wealth? You may be using them as scapegoats, you may be envious, but hate is much stronger.
Ottawamike at 101: that video was kind of silly. If you’ve lived overseas you’d know it actually does work both ways. I prefer the ‘If gay men said the stuff straight men say’. :)