Hot, not

HOT modified

Just another unbuilt condo development being flogged in downtown Toronto. “First come, first served!” yelled the promo ads on Kijiji, and every other corner of the web where house-horny suburban Millennials go to be turned on. “$5,000 off parking. $0 Assignment Fee!”

But Eleven Wellesley ain’t just another glassy concrete slab where a parking lot once happily dwelt. This thing’s huge. Sixty stories high. Almost 700 units. (Jeez, boy, you could put all of Lunenburg in there.) And, when built (maybe) in 2018, it will sit in one of the most urban spots in Canada – at Yonge Street, a mere seven-minute hoof up from King & Bay.

“Amenities at Wellesley On The Park Condos include a 24-hour concierge, party room, lounging outdoor terrace with BBQ, management office, meeting room, theatre room, indoor and outdoor swimming pool, pet spa, fitness centre, change rooms, cold plunge pool, hot tub, a spa facility featuring a dry sauna, steam room and a relaxing lounge.”

And the kids can afford it. Prices start at just $200,000 for a box 15 feet by 18 feet on a lower floor facing the exhaust fan for the pizza place next door. And if Mom gives you more for a down payment, you could even get an entry-level two-bedroom, starting at $506,000.

Well, developer Lanterra rolled out the carpet on the weekend, and this was the result:

LINEUP modified

Yep, a lineup. Sort of. But don’t blame Lanterra for the pathetic turnout. It tried. I mean, look at all those folding chairs – the normal signature luggage of hornies who spontaneously show up at a pre-construction event, also clutching their chequebooks and pee jars. But these chairs aren’t random. In fact, they’re all identical, and color-coordinated. In a line. In fact, you can buy them in bulk here for $29.78 (minimum order, 25). Like Lanterra probably did.

CHAIRS modified

Photos: William Stratas

If there’s one thing you can count on, it’s real estate not being what it appears to be. Despite the best efforts of the real estate cartel and the fluffer mainstream media, despite the pent-up buyer demand after the Winter from Hell, and despite Scotia’s 2.97% fixed and IG’s 1.99% VRM sucker’s special, sales are anemic and uneven, even in ‘boom’ markets like Toronto. As I’ve pointed out before, less hyped places – Victoria, Montreal, Halifax – seem poised to enter some kind of sales/price spiral. Meanwhile we have the big-city supply pipeline clogged with projects the size of entire towns – like Eleven Wellesley.

So, be happy your bum wasn’t in one of those chairs.

Speaking of cheap-and-easy mortgages, word on the street has it that the country’s financial institutions cop, OSFI, is now grilling the banks about the level of variable-rate mortgages currently on their books – the kind Investor’s Group just earned big headlines over. Ottawa is apparently sweating over those billions in CMHC-insured loans coming due in 2016 or 2017, when over-stretched borrowers will find they have to renew at higher rates to finance properties probably worth less.

Of special concern are the fat loans – for a million or more – which are so common now in 416 and Van, as well as the growing volume of business the banks are doing under their ‘New to Canada’ programs. As one industry insider tells me, “A Canadian with a 35% down payment but no confirmation of income will find it damn near impossible to get a mortgage, but a New to Canada or non-resident will not have the same issue.”

This goes hand-in-hand with RBC’s new campaign, quietly paying realtors $1,000 in cash for first-time homebuyers’ scalps that they drag into a branch, ready for a mortgage.

This market’s on fire? Yeah. Sure.

180 comments ↓

#1 calgaryPhantom on 06.02.14 at 6:23 pm

Phew….after seeing those chairs i ran to my basement to confirm that mine were not stolen. I have one blue and one pink of those.

I am having a buyers remorse too, as i bought them for $15 each. Should have bought them in bulk.

#2 Mark on 06.02.14 at 6:23 pm

“So, be happy your bum wasn’t in one of those chairs.”

Why? Its fairly “common knowledge” that the vendors have been paying people to participate in these events/line-ups, to create hype. An easy $100 simply to sit around and smoke cigarettes while soaking up some sunshine!

#3 Lurcher on 06.02.14 at 6:24 pm

You should see what’s going on in Burnaby. There are more towers being built or planned than I have fingers and toes (that’s at least 20 the last time I looked). And they are all at least 40 stories tall.

#4 bob on 06.02.14 at 6:33 pm

Where did you get that pic from? Aren’t you suppose to be in the office doing real work?

But, love how you dug deep and found out where the chairs are from. That’s investigative reporting, better than most media joints these days.

#5 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.02.14 at 6:36 pm

RBC is paying realtors a $1000.00 for each “virgin” they bring in?????????. WTF!
When is this charade going to stop?

#6 Shawn on 06.02.14 at 6:39 pm

Just You Wait!

And just you wait until those old 40 year amortizations come due at higher rates and new 25 year amortizations. (And the 35 years too!)

Isn’t that what we ALL thought circa 2009?

But I assume that has already largely happened and with rates lower it happened with not a whimper from the market.

(And, I suspect 40 year amorts were grandfathered to be 35 year amorts on their frst renewal anyhow).

But yeah, just you wait until these variable rate mortgages come due at higher rates! This time the housing market’s a gonna be sorry.

Unless, that is we are all wrong again and rates stay low.

Stay tuned, it’s all good entertainment.

#7 Calgary Owner (2nd. Round) on 06.02.14 at 6:41 pm

Hey Garth, can you speculate what could come from the heat that the OSFI is giving the banks? You mentioned big loans and new Canadian approvals possibly being under more scrutiny, but do you think there could be some sort of “across the board” deal offered to people renewing in the next few years?

#8 My Name on 06.02.14 at 6:42 pm

Quote: As one industry insider tells me, “A Canadian with a 35% down payment but no confirmation of income will find it damn near impossible to get a mortgage, but a New to Canada or non-resident will not have the same issue.”

Hmm… how come?!

#9 Crossbordershopper on 06.02.14 at 6:42 pm

a pet spa!! do you get a discount if you dont have a pet. A pet spa. I gotta think about that one for a while.

#10 Harry Wilson on 06.02.14 at 6:42 pm

Seriously, Mr. Turner; even before the dog-walk of doom, you couldn’t hoof it from King/Bay to Yonge/Wellesley in seven minutes; that’s Roger Bannister territory. (Unless ‘hoof it’ means dragging your feet while riding your two-wheeler.)

#11 Chopper on 06.02.14 at 6:43 pm

I hope and pray this madness stops, I cannot see home prices rising non-stop. What goes up must come down and I hope it starts to come down soon cause I will be looking for some deals.

#12 Dean Mason on 06.02.14 at 6:46 pm

There are now 200,000 dogs in Toronto and they are talking about making it law that condo developers have more green space for dogs and their owners.

It looks like Toronto real real estate is going to the dogs.

#13 TurnerNation on 06.02.14 at 6:47 pm

Stop feeding the Beast.

Stop buying new cars
Stop getting HELOCs
Stop visiting 905-area outlet malls
Stop watching 60hrs of tee-vee, movies each week
Stop spending $100 on dinner & drinks
Stop buying 80″ tee-vees

#14 1st on 06.02.14 at 6:48 pm

1st

#15 mishuko on 06.02.14 at 6:50 pm

$740 sq/ft not including all the other fees and extortions.

My god poor suckers. I’d pay maybe 120 at most for that sized box.

#16 sheane wallace on 06.02.14 at 6:52 pm

Disband CMHC, let the banks take the responsibility for their loans , let them fail and nationalize them, the world would be much better place.

#17 Bargains everywhere on 06.02.14 at 6:58 pm

I dunno, Garth. In my old Willowdale neighbourhood, single family detached homes go for over a million and still sell quickly – usually over asking. I’d really like to believe that things are slowing down but I honestly can’t say that I see it. Open houses around here maybe aren’t as busy as they were a couple of years ago but traffic is steady and, come offer day, 2 or 3 solid offers show up. Main buyers around here are of Persian and Chinese heritage.

I’m really not sure anymore what it will take to finally slow this market down. If interest rates don’t rise as expected, what other factors will have an impact? I’m out of ideas.

#18 Derek R on 06.02.14 at 6:58 pm

Not so much of a fire. More of a birthday candle.

#19 Steve French on 06.02.14 at 6:59 pm

people who write “first” on blogs should be banned from the web.

#20 Happy Renting on 06.02.14 at 7:03 pm

Maybe even Millennials realize that having a pet spa right in your building is totally douchey.

Re: fluffer. Heh. So rude, Garth.

#21 Kris on 06.02.14 at 7:11 pm

#8 My Name on 06.02.14 at 6:42 pm
Quote: As one industry insider tells me, “A Canadian with a 35% down payment but no confirmation of income will find it damn near impossible to get a mortgage, but a New to Canada or non-resident will not have the same issue.”

Hmm… how come?!

And then we wonder why are canadians pissed off with immigrants/non-residents.
Its a form of discrimination, plain and simple.

#22 James on 06.02.14 at 7:16 pm

Checking out a truly hot market right now, namely Seattle. Back in bubbly territory, and places will go in a couple of days with multiple offers.

That’s what a hot market is likely. Real estate agents are busy. They don’t have to engage in goofy trickys like faking lineups or flying around ‘buyers’ in helicopters.

(Not that I am arguing that this run up is a good thing, it is just a far cry from Toronto in terms of activity)

#23 Iain on 06.02.14 at 7:19 pm

Garth, $1000? I thought Realtors had rules prohibiting this kind of kickback. Sure, bird dog fees are a dirty industry secret but accepting a fee from a bank seems to be crossing OREA / CREA rules. I don’t doubt your source, sad times…

#24 Ben on 06.02.14 at 7:19 pm

To posters loosing faith. Canada doesn’t control it’s rates. The US does. When they rise Canada are coming with them, like it or not.

#25 Kris on 06.02.14 at 7:25 pm

#8 My Name on 06.02.14 at 6:42 pm
Quote: As one industry insider tells me, “A Canadian with a 35% down payment but no confirmation of income will find it damn near impossible to get a mortgage, but a New to Canada or non-resident will not have the same issue.”

Hmm… how come?!

In Germany, germans get the first shot.
In Japan, japanese get the first shot.
In Norway, norwegians get the first shot.
In Canada, every body other than canadians get the first shot…………………………………….Oh Canaduh…….

Ignorant. — Garth

#26 BG on 06.02.14 at 7:29 pm

Slowdowns can be noticed but good deals will only be available when both the MSM media and Bob from work (2 kids) agree Real Estate is a bad investment.

#27 omg on 06.02.14 at 7:37 pm

I will say it again as a reality check – NO CORRECTION IN CANADIAN R.E. PRICES UNLESS INTEREST RATES RISE SIGNIFICANTLY.

AND RATES WILL NOT rise so long as the middle class is in North America is hurting.

So do not get too excited by fluctuations in monthly stats.

Bond rates have zero to do with middle class. — Garth

#28 sideline sitter on 06.02.14 at 7:41 pm

The market is pooched… homes are sitting, and a correction is around the corner. I sold in 2012 and hope I can buy in the winter of 15/16 (bit will wait if I must).

#29 KickedoutofKorea on 06.02.14 at 7:47 pm

How does a non-resident qualify? Please explain this as the last paragraph introduces the topic with no explanation.

#30 DocInWaitingRoom on 06.02.14 at 7:57 pm

Or 4.50 usd like my wife paid last week in the USA…

#31 Flawed on 06.02.14 at 8:00 pm

Nope. No pictures of HAM there.

HAM does not mean Canadians of Asian heritage. What a sad nation we are building. — Garth

#32 Babblemaster on 06.02.14 at 8:02 pm

“This market’s on fire? Yeah. Sure.” – Garth

———————————————————-

Over the last few years, on this very blog, there have been many anecdotal and incidental observations that would seem to indicate a troubled RE market and presage a price decline. That hasn’t happened. Prices have continued to climb. I’m not convinced that there will be any sort of correction any time soon.

Correction: prices have continued to climb in some markets. Look at the larger whole. You sound like Re/Max. — Garth

#33 Marc in Montreal on 06.02.14 at 8:08 pm

Not sure if it’s been posted here before but here are the latest numbers for the condo market for the last 12 months in Montréal:

Sales : -5%
Listing : +18%
Avg price : 0%
Avg days on the market : +13% (2 weeks)

http://cms.centris.ca/medias/publications/bar_20141_prv_an.pdf

Canada’s second-largest market. — Garth

#34 Jsan on 06.02.14 at 8:15 pm

“Amenities at Wellesley On The Park Condos include a 24-hour concierge, party room, lounging outdoor terrace with BBQ, management office, meeting room, theatre room, indoor and outdoor swimming pool, pet spa, fitness centre, change rooms, cold plunge pool, hot tub, a spa facility featuring a dry sauna, steam room and a relaxing lounge.”

———————————————————-

24 hour concierge – A phone at the entrance that rings the mangers suite.

Party Room – A room with a small fridge, sink and a “no name” 50″ TV.

lounging outdoor terrace with BBQ – A few square feet of patio stones soon to be covered in weeds and a RONA BBQ.

management office – See “24 hour concierge” above.

indoor and outdoor swimming pool – Two concrete holes in the ground a little larger than your bathtub but not nearly as clean.

pet spa – A room with a larger than average sink and a handheld shower wand.

Fitness Centre – a few cheap, soon to be broken down exercise bikes with a mirror on the wall.

change rooms, cold plunge pool, hot tub, a spa facility featuring a dry sauna, steam room and a relaxing lounge.” – Two rooms with a couple of benches in them, a much smaller hole in the ground (see indoor outdoor swimming pools above), a 4 person RONA sauna, a bucket of water to make steam and a squeaky vinyl couch to “lounge” on as you calculate how much money your “luxury” concrete money pit is and will cost you for the most of your life.

Memories of throwing away your hard earned money on something that is nothing more than a VERY overpriced concrete facade, PRICELESS.

#35 Flawed on 06.02.14 at 8:19 pm

#31 Flawed on 06.02.14 at 8:00 pm
Nope. No pictures of HAM there.

HAM does not mean Canadians of Asian heritage. What a sad nation we are building. — Garth

*******************************

I apologize. I must have come to this blog late and have been reading what others have wrote. But if many of the buyers are Asian. But are not yet Canadians. But live in Canada. What does that make them? Because that seems to be what many people are writing that their experience has been after talking with neighbors, bankers they know, realtors they know and basically information coming from the horses mouth.

You have no idea where the people in that picture come from. So stop embarrassing yourself. — Garth

#36 Smoking Man on 06.02.14 at 8:19 pm

OK vote time.

Here is how to vote.

If you get paid via someone’s tax dollars you vote liberal

If you get paid, private sector, or are self employed vote PC

If you can’t stand booth leaders vote NDP, she’s the only sensible one.

If you’re a basement dweller and want a real estate crash. Vote liberal, but make sure you’re in the public sector as their will be no jobs in the private sector.

#37 Gary on 06.02.14 at 8:36 pm

DELETED

#38 Millenial on 06.02.14 at 8:44 pm

Hey Garth,

I was crossing Yonge street today at Montgomery Ave, just north of Eglinton. You know, right by Postal Station K, which has been sold by Canada Post and will now be a new condo development. Guess who I see crossing towards me? Kathleen Wynne. I kid you not, it was today around 1pm and she was out for a run.

Anyway, I voted yesterday pre-polling, PC.

That’s her riding. She lives there. — Garth

#39 Waterloo Resident on 06.02.14 at 8:51 pm

Oh man, that woman is going to divorce that short guy so quickly he won’t know what hit him !!! Lets just hope that they are still in the ‘dating’ stage and he wasn’t stupid enough to get married, otherwise he is so screwwwed!

Now back to real estate:
GLASS TOWERS: did you know that the average life of a 2 pane insulated window is only about 20 years, and half of those will start failing after only 15 years. I rent a house and it has windows that are 15 years old and half of them have already started to FOG OVER. So in about 15 years time, a full 20% of the windows in those glass towers will need replacing. That’s going to cost a lot !

I read from here this quote: (((” If you get 10 years from a builders grade window, that is probably as good as it gets. Seals break down, frames warp, finishes deteriorate, and the gas between the glazing springs a leak.” )))
http://www.city-data.com/forum/house/1970493-what-lifespan-windows.html

I was chatting with an Asian lady from Shenzhen china. I told her how crazy our housing prices are here in Canada, how couples who earn only $80,000 per year are buying $600,000 houses. She told me that sounds completely reasonable and logical, because in her city in China it is not uncommon to find couples who are earning only $30,000 per year to be buying houses that cost $500,000 to $600,000 each. She said that to her she feels that Canadian house prices are still a bargain.

After talking with her for a few minutes, I felt sorry for her future husband, he will be forced into buying a house he can neither afford or want. Then when the economy in China implodes due to all of those ghost cities being vacant for too long, he will lose his job, then he won’t be able to pay the monthly cost of that house, and she will divorce him and leave him so high and dry it won’t be funny !
And heaven forbid if she ever comes to Canada and marries a naive Canadian guy; she will make him buy 2 HOUSES; one to live in and one as an investment. Then when his job starts to suffer, again she will divorce him. The only difference is that over here we have ALIMONY laws, and in addition to having to pay for 2 houses he cannot afford, he will have to fork over 20% of his pre-tax income to his ex-wife who said that she will stay with him forever, only to leave as soon as it became convenient for her. ( I have 6 guy friends who have experienced women like that, so yes, it is very common.)

#40 Joe2.0 on 06.02.14 at 9:02 pm

Loads of money pulling out of China because their housing market is failing.

Money is being reinvested in Singapore, San Fran, Auckland, LA-Orange County’s a fav, Toronto, New York, Melbourne, London and Vancouver.

As the Chinese housing bubble deflates the interest in these markets will begin to dry up.

And then it’s show time.

#41 Chopper on 06.02.14 at 9:14 pm

O.K SM I am self-employed and will be voting PC anyway. Never did like the Liberals, squandering tax payers money is not the way to a prosperous Ontario.

Fiscal responsibility and wise spending=PC.
Everyone please send a message to the Liberals…no more waste.

#42 mortgagebrokeron on 06.02.14 at 9:17 pm

Ontario is screwed, and real estate will be hit as well, all unskilled and skilled jobs are going to the usa, and no investment in new business ie auto sector, going to alabama tennesee and mexico…..

I took the wife to Pennsylvannia for a weekend get away, rural median wages of most areas out there are 30,000 per year and houses out there 120,000 …

in rural Ontario if you are not public sector you aint making 75000 per year and your house is costing 400,000????

Reckoning is coming, we are no different than PA or Ny state….

Not everyone can suck on the governments teat we will run out of money to borrow to pay too many teachers police officers and bureaucrats….

Housing industry is screwed

#43 Mark on 06.02.14 at 9:19 pm

“Loads of money pulling out of China because their housing market is failing.”

The “money” never existed in the first place. It was just credit, leverage. And no evidence that those markets, including Vancouver, are inflated by “Chinese” money. In fact, there is almost no evidence of “foreign money” in Canada’s RE market.

#44 [email protected] on 06.02.14 at 9:21 pm

The subway’s so unreliable TTC still stands for take the car. The traffic down there is so awful. No chance of King & Bay in 7 minutes. You want to be round there? Rent in the Manulife. Buy a folding bike for the apartment.

#45 Vik on 06.02.14 at 9:21 pm

Happened to drive around the Grandfield Homes- Oakland
at 7:30 am on Saturday. There certainly was a line up but it was more like a burger shop lineup at lunch hour on a weekday. I thought that the 48 homes might eventually get sold by Sunday, but come Monday, I cant find no trumpeting announcement on the builders’ website.

#46 LB on 06.02.14 at 9:28 pm

@Bargains everywhere.
You are exactly right. In Willowdale, houses do not sit on the market for very long. People are snatching them up like hotcakes. I think a good amount of areas, such as Willowdale, will weather whatever storm may be coming.

As for 11 Wellesley. It has sold VERY well, much like YC condos, which is another 60+ storey tower on Yonge St. 11 Wellesley is even inviting VVVIP agents to Zurich, Switzerland to launch their newest project – 501 Yonge.

I am pretty perplexed and don’t know what the heck is going on or what to believe anymore. If there is a crash, please – let it happen soon.

#47 Vangrrl on 06.02.14 at 9:30 pm

#40:
Unless of course she has more money than any Canadian guy could ever hope to have, or no interest in getting married, or is gay… But in your narrow minded world there is only one possible outcome.
Do all ladies from China a favour- don’t talk to them.

#48 natrx on 06.02.14 at 9:34 pm

With the recent weakening in the Canadian Dollar, many foreign investors lost 10% just like that.

They’re going to realize how risky currency risk is, and when it comes time to free up that cash sitting in that cesspool of a City Play Condo (overrun by young people partying, drinking, dog pooping everywhere). that the ‘gain’ they were supposed to have gotten is a loss after expenses and replacing those stainless steel appliances.

#49 Smoking Man on 06.02.14 at 9:37 pm

#39 Millenial on 06.02.14 at 8:44 pm

Good choice, never would have guessed there where Millennial’s with brains… Well done lad.

I got me feelers in a lot of business, I kid you not, if Wynne gets a majority, many are moving there business States side, immediately.

There not going to stick around and see what happens…

#50 LB on 06.02.14 at 9:38 pm

@Waterloo Resident

Your comments are rather naive. “she ever comes to Canada and marries a naive Canadian guy; she will make him buy 2 HOUSES” – that’s a nice crock of sh*t and you know it. A good 70% of my neighbours are from China and they do not think that way at all. So your assumptions are just that, assumptions and poor ones at that.

#51 April on 06.02.14 at 9:40 pm

#5 If I knew my realtor was getting paid if I take out a mortgage I’d be running the other way.

#52 Pope Snugglebomdwhacko the 666zz on 06.02.14 at 9:42 pm

DELETED

#53 Kreditanstalt on 06.02.14 at 9:46 pm

Yeah, but in Lunenburg you probably have trees. And neighbours you actually see and get to know. Not to mention less concrete…

#54 Bob Rice on 06.02.14 at 9:50 pm

In Shakespearian terms, it’s referred to as Appearance v reality!

#55 First on 06.02.14 at 9:54 pm

@ # 19..Steve French on 06.02.14 at 6:59 pm

” people who write “first” on blogs should be banned from the web”

first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first first

#56 a prairie dog on 06.02.14 at 9:57 pm

I have to wonder how much our ongoing ’emergency rate’ monetary policy is being influenced by the fact that we have a Federal election next year?

#57 Bob Rice on 06.02.14 at 9:59 pm

#24 “To posters loosing faith. Canada doesn’t control it’s rates. The US does. When they rise Canada are coming with them, like it or not.”

You are correct, sir… and that will be happening over the next 12 to 24 months… US economy is steadily growing… they’re talking about rate rise in early 2015.. even 1% will impact our housing… 2% will cause a crash…

#58 Cory on 06.02.14 at 10:04 pm

Hard to believe this fraud keeps going on and thenpowers that be let the charade continue on the backs of taxpayers.

Remove insurance and the world would be a different place…..r at the VERY least, cut the insurable amount in half.

Nothing will ever change until after the election anyways. Even then it’s questionable.

#59 Mark on 06.02.14 at 10:07 pm

“With the recent weakening in the Canadian Dollar, many foreign investors lost 10% just like that. “

Not really, because the debt they used to buy depreciated by 10% as well. After all, it is fairly obvious that almost no “foreign money” actually has come to Canada to invest in residential RE. Foreigners, when they buy in Canada, are buying mostly on credit.

#60 Roxy on 06.02.14 at 10:32 pm

Well you’re sure as heck gonna have to “hoof it” over the King and Bay because with a condo in that location, there is no chance in hell that you’ll be getting on the subway!

The Yonge line is hell because of all the condos. Once the train gets to Bloor/Yonge station nobody can get on or off. Everyone buying condos at Wellesley or College for the ease of being on the subway…..well, think again. You’re better walking!!!

#61 Cici on 06.02.14 at 10:33 pm

#8 My Name

Probably for the following reason:

The new resident probably has or is suspected to have tons of $$ back home, but even if not and the bottom were to fall out of the RE market, the banks would have nothing to lose. In the case of a job loss or any otehr misfortune leading to a default, the bank would repossess no questions asked, and the “new resident” without official permanent status would be forced to hand it all over.

But in the meantime, they’re suckered in, think their condo is a future gold mine and that Canada is the best country on Earth = More votes for the Herr Harper.

#62 Hulot on 06.02.14 at 10:34 pm

Meanwhile in Vancouver a 100 years old home goes 200K over asking. From $1.695K to 1.9K.

http://www.vopenhouse.ca/video/7240_York/

How are your basement suites rentals, folks?

You are why people hate realtors. — Garth

#63 randman on 06.02.14 at 10:37 pm

Vangrrl

Me thinks thou doest protest to much!

#64 Cici on 06.02.14 at 10:41 pm

#9 Crossbordershopper

LOL, obviously the genius behind that concept has never had a pet. I don’t think most cats would appreciate being dunked into cold (or any other) water, and then tossed into a dry sauna or hot spa. And they hate having their “nails” done!

Only us humans are stupid enough to enjoy such trivial shit, and pay top dollar for it.

Wonder what those monthly condo fees are going to amount to though! Most of my friends with condos are already paying about $300 per month for nothing but special assessments.

#65 X on 06.02.14 at 10:42 pm

How about a vote on how many tax payers want to be on the hook for these CMHC loans the banks have given out for anyone who can breathe…..

Giving the banks a little more responsibility for these loans will do no harm to anyone…..

Just a little, and it would send an even stronger message.

#66 Van Isle Renter on 06.02.14 at 10:44 pm

Sure, bird dog fees are a dirty industry secret but accepting a fee from a bank seems to be crossing OREA / CREA rules.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Using CREA and rules in the same sentence is an oxymoron.

#67 Larry who? on 06.02.14 at 10:46 pm

I see Larry Macdonald is slamming the bears for their warnings.

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/blogs-and-comment/housing-crash-forecast-folly/

One might think that writing an entire book in 2000 outlining why Nortel will “remain preeminent”, published the very month the stock began to crash, might cause him to think twice about calling out others.

http://www.amazon.ca/Nortel-Networks-Innovation-Created-Network/dp/0471645427

#68 Joe2.0 on 06.02.14 at 10:55 pm

Mark#43
Lots of evidence of foreign money entering our market according to developers I know that build high rises for Chinese investors and have been doing so for years.

Currently working on buildings In New West, Surrey and Burnaby.
Offshore money very creatively imported.

A Re Max agent told me he took an Asian buyer to see an apartment on Lonsdale and when he explained the layouts from the street level, 1-2-3 bedrooms the guy turned and said “I’m looking to buy an entire building to be used for rentals”

These guys have gotten very wealthy off of the Asians.

Your not in Kanas anymore Dorothy.

#69 Flawed on 06.02.14 at 10:57 pm

Imagine the world we would be living in if the money men would not have assassinated JFK and secret govt did not exist.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/06/02/kennedy-would-have-been-against-obama/

#70 Nemesis on 06.02.14 at 10:57 pm

#ShowTime. #SoonerThanManyHereThink. #ButNotAll.

@Joe.2.0/#40

http://youtu.be/zJnXlNc30vw

#BonusZen!

http://youtu.be/69Ypynx_XGo

#71 SESs on 06.02.14 at 11:03 pm

Wait, …what!? Doesn’t Lanterra know the going rate for stand-ins has doubled since last year?

#72 Son of Ponzi on 06.02.14 at 11:06 pm

call 10 real estate agents about listings on the west side. 50% will be HAM selling the house because they are going back to china now that the kids are done school.
———————
Mother China is calling the Naked Officials back.
Time to liquidate.

#73 Hulot on 06.02.14 at 11:06 pm

I am not a realtor. Just a frustrated and disillusioned Greater Fool Blog reader.

Even worse. — Garth

#74 Dexter on 06.02.14 at 11:09 pm

Replying to #42 Mortgage Broken,

you are very correct about the job market in Ontario. Especially the public sector management and their over-inflated salaries and pensions at the expense of the taxpayers. It would be quite restrictive for anyone earning less than C$30,000 a year to own a million dollar detached home or quarter million dollar one bedroom condominium in Toronto.

Quoting from Mr.Turner, “Meanwhile we have the big-city supply pipeline clogged with projects the size of entire towns – like Eleven Wellesley.

So, be happy your bum wasn’t in one of those chairs.”

It does bring the question of transit and traffic congestion in Toronto. There are a lot of issues about living in Toronto, but you can Google it for yourselves, ranging from 20% young adult unemployment to dating conspiracies about the culture of Toronto.

The real estate market in Toronto is one giant Ponzi scheme based on cheap mortgage debt.

What will Ontario look like after the housing bubble deflates? One thing for sure, thousands of construction, real estate and banking jobs will be lost. Including the incompetence of the Liberals, unemployment will skyrocket. I cringe and hope that the housing bubble cools and we hopefully end up with a competent provincial government in 2014.

#75 45north on 06.02.14 at 11:13 pm

Speaking of cheap-and-easy mortgages, word on the street has it that the country’s financial institutions cop, OSFI, is now grilling the banks about the level of variable-rate mortgages currently on their books

if you have a variable rate mortgage and rates go up then so does your payment, tout-de-suite

even if you have a fixed rate mortgage it’s only good for five years:

Ralph Cramdown: It isn’t that our mortgages adjust every five years… They’re balloon mortgages — the balance is due in full at the end of the five. Yes, your lender almost always offers a renewal (at better or worse terms), but is under no obligation to.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2014/05/28/race-to-the-bottom-5/#comment-305879

in the US as the market fell there was a pool of owners with an honest-to-God 30 year mortgage. No such pool exists in Canada. We got a problem.

#76 Mark on 06.02.14 at 11:14 pm

“I have to wonder how much our ongoing ‘emergency rate’ monetary policy is being influenced by the fact that we have a Federal election next year?”

None of it. The low policy rates are associated with the deflation that’s occurring in the Canadian economy. And policy rates are likely to be low for a considerable amount of time going forward.

However, mortgage rates may not remain low as lenders perceive reduced credit-worthiness in the market, or have additional capital requirements associated with such lending imposed upon them by the OSFI, BoC, CMHC, etc.

#77 Mark on 06.02.14 at 11:16 pm

“Lots of evidence of foreign money entering our market according to developers I know that build high rises for Chinese investors and have been doing so for years. “

Sure, Chinese investors might be involved, but they’re not bringing anything but minimal amounts of cash if even. There is no evidence to suggest foreigners are actually bringing cash to Canada. As Garth points out on numerous occasions, just because a Canadian happens to be of an “Asian” ethnicity doesn’t make them a ‘foreigner’ as some xenophobes would like to imply.

#78 SESs on 06.02.14 at 11:22 pm

DELETED

#79 tim (madman)hudak = mike harris on 06.02.14 at 11:26 pm

Vote ANYONE But that moron sellout hudak who can’t do math. Hudak to create 1 million jobs by cutting 100k. Hudak math for job gains is 1 job over 8 years = 8 jobs. I kid you not with this mental case who is being taught how to smile. Notice that? Hudak trying with every fiber of his body to smile. Looks like a sociopath when be does. BTW I am a conservative and I can’t vote for this idiot.

#80 Cici on 06.02.14 at 11:29 pm

#65 x

“How about a vote on how many tax payers want to be on the hook for these CMHC loans the banks have given out for anyone who can breathe…..”

Yes, you can choose NOT to vote Conservative. But most people don’t get that basic concept. And so the game continues.

#81 Hulot on 06.02.14 at 11:38 pm

You are like a drug. Withdrawal is difficult. Only you can let us go willfully as the world is passing us by while we collect mould from our rentals.

#82 john on 06.02.14 at 11:44 pm

Hudak PC will ruin Ontario just like mike Harris. Ontario is feeling the pain as companies leave Ontario due to high electrical cost thanks to the deregulation of hydro and cost skyrocketed as predicted. Mike Harris with the help of hudak cut and closed hospitals leading to horrible wait times and sick people without beds. Let not forget closed schools , increased taxes and the debt went higher. PC will sell assets for pennies on the dollar like they did with the 407. PC is a living nightmare.

#83 Tony on 06.02.14 at 11:51 pm

Re: #17 Bargains everywhere on 06.02.14 at 6:58 pm

The Chinese real estate market is in collapse as reported by the latest edition of “The Economist”. Meaning they the Chinese will sell secondary properties first like a Canadian would unload a cottage here first. The spillover effect from the collapse in Vancouver prices will affect the rest of Canada. The entire condo market in Toronto will collapse as will the entire Toronto and Greater Toronto area housing.

#84 Naga on 06.02.14 at 11:56 pm

Garth some retro thoughts on a few critical variables that we need to consider when making any kind of investment:

1. Interest Rates – I have said on this blog that they would stay low for the duration of this decade (kind like the dirty thirties) – so far no reason to revise this forecast;

2. Relative performnace of the assett class – personally it is a mix of equity markets vs Re – going forward based on various fatcors that this blog has touched – need to be higher weighted on equities.

3. Own vs rent – only idiots have lost money owning over the last 50, 40 30 and especialy last 10 years – going forward if you know that you will live in the same place for at least 10 years I predict that owning will again be the winner but not by much.

4. Economy – we have to learn that the economy is no longer local and that developing nations is an old term.

5. Energy – it is being the theme of this early century and redefining many old paradigms and redifining geopolitical boundaries;

6. Demographics – part of the mix but in the global scheme not that significant – japan, europe and some other western contries seeing major shifts – but with immigration and other factors not a defining factor.

As investors we need to make calls on all the above factors and act on those calls.

Too many of those that come to this blog seem to be engolfed in emotional/ego type behavious to be taken seriously.

Some times I wonder where Garth fits in this framework….

#85 Chaddywack on 06.03.14 at 1:03 am

#8

What I don’t understand is how banks can legally offer preferential lending status based on citizenship. That has to be against the law.

In theory we’re all equal in this country, but some days I start to wonder.

#86 Son of Ponzi on 06.03.14 at 1:16 am

DELETED

#87 TakingResponsibility on 06.03.14 at 1:24 am

#29 KickedoutofKorea on 06.02.14 at 7:47 pm
How does a non-resident qualify? Please explain this as the last paragraph introduces the topic with no explanation.

It is worth it to peruse the CMHC website as there is a notable tone of assured and assertive marketing of service to newcomers. Some notable sales talk: “Newcomers to Canada play an increasing role in Canada’s future population growth, creating new market opportunities. CMHC insured financing is available to borrowers with permanent and non-permanent residence status, helping newcomers to realize their dream of homeownership in Canada.”

There is little difference in taxpayer-backed CMHC services to newcomers with PR or those Non-PR status. You must know that permanent resident status is a step towards citizenship but is not a guarantee of citizenship. Non-permanent status means that there is not even an application for permanent residence.

From the CMHC website, there is an assurance that “Newcomers with permanent resident status have access to all CMHC mortgage loan insurance products.” That means the whole gambit of products including insuring ‘income properties up to 4’ is available to those who are not Canadian citizens but are permanent residents.

As well, for permanent residents, where there is limited Canadian credit history, “CMHC continues to consider alternative sources of payment history for Loan to Value ratios between 80.01% – 95%.

There is some difference for non-permanent residents, where they have access to CMHC insured financing of up to 90% LTV for the purchase of 1 unit owner occupied residence.

And, CMHC boasts there are no additional fees or premiums as a result of residency status.

Finally, CMHC declares that no minimum period of residency is required.

***Seriously, if the mainstream media really investigated how much CMHC interfered with the market (and who knows the amount of insurance has been granted to non-citizens), there would be a huge fall-out, much bigger than the “TFW’s are taking our jobs…”

#88 I'm lubbin it on 06.03.14 at 1:50 am

Garth,

I think that deep down you enjoy getting us riled up over ham or immigrant investors. A few carefully placed comments or pictures in your main article and poof: ample entertainment in the comments section, at which point you can come in and scold us while chuckling behind the screen as we dance on your strings.

I do it happily Garth.

#89 RodgerHodgson on 06.03.14 at 2:59 am

#PagingSmokingMan

http://youtu.be/oJwMrUM-0N0

#90 cynically on 06.03.14 at 3:14 am

Mark #s 43 and59 – In fact there is almost no evidence of foreign money in Canada’s RE market.
You’ve got to be kidding! Open your eyes around you. Maybe you were making an unnecessary obvious statement about “foreign money” being in the RE market because we all know that it is Canadian money changing hands in these transactions but then you say the “foreigners(his word, Garth) are buying mostly on credit. This is probably true for immigrant workers but not for Asian RE buyers who tend to pay cash for homes and perhaps credit for investment properties.

#91 Buy? Curious? on 06.03.14 at 5:08 am

Though this post doesn’t shake my belief that purchasing my home two years ago was a good bet, but buying one of these condos would make me as nervous as a lost cat in a certain part of town. If I was trying to park my money in another country to avoid financial clampdown my home country was trying to impose, sure, what have I got to lose? The location is great and I’m sure you rent it out easily. The problem I have with condos is the Canadian craftmanship. Canadians are so acceptable of low quality goods that you can put anything in front of them and they’ll buy 2. If all that falling glass and horror stories of faulty condo builds doesn’t scare you away, good luck. However if you look at houses in or near downtown, how do you think they’re doing price-wise? Leslieville, Parkdale, etc, those places are getting snatched up by smart go-getters such as myself. Why? Because in a couple of years, they’ll be worth more than double. Who wants to live in Markham, Vaughn or Richmond Hill? Cat owners?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9iqjRTlJ50

#92 dosouth on 06.03.14 at 5:54 am

#62 Hulot says: on 06.02.14 at 10:34 pm

Meanwhile in Vancouver a 100 years old home goes 200K over asking. From $1.695K to 1.9K.
—————————————————–

Back in the real world, Vancouver price drop blog notes properties still not selling at price reductions in the 100 of thousands of dollars.

Two sides to every story……

http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/

#93 S Harper on 06.03.14 at 5:58 am

DELETED

#94 jean on 06.03.14 at 6:06 am

I am new to Canada. Woop woop, there is a program for me!! Sweet!! I just checked it out and it is good for 5 years after I arrived. So if the housing market would hurry up and crash in the next several years that would be really nice and then I can use my New to Canada program to buy. I wasn’t aware of it, thanks Garth!!!!

#95 Realtor # 1 GTA on 06.03.14 at 6:40 am

theredpin.com/blog

http://www.theredpin.com/blog/first-time-home-buyers/infographic-june-2-2014-new-look-new-rich-data-coming-to-you-every-week

It has a new page that shows active listing by dwelling type and city.

Data based on TREB? — Garth

#96 saskatoon on 06.03.14 at 6:46 am

from today’s star:

“Be careful not to buy and sell properties quickly. The Canada Revenue Agency may view this activity as business income. This means that you will have to pay tax on any profit you make on your investment. It is preferable to buy properties for the long term, rent them out and use your positive cash flow to reduce the amount of your mortgage owing, building equity in your property. If you then sell years later for a profit, it will likely be classified as a capital gain and thus one half of your gain will be tax free.”

Garth, isn’t there something wrong with this?

Technically or morally? — Garth

#97 Kevin on 06.03.14 at 7:27 am

@Mark (#2):

Its fairly “common knowledge” that the vendors have been paying people to participate in these events/line-ups, to create hype.

I call hogwash.

Every time someone makes this accusation, I issue the same challenge: Prove it. Show me one verifiable example of a developer caught red-handed hiring line-fillers to simulate hype.

Years ago, Garth had a blog post where he highlighted a Kijiji ad asking for hire someone to stand in line at a condo sales opening or something, and everyone just assumed it was done by the developer themselves. However, it seems more likely that it was in fact someone who simply wanted an early pick of the properties but (like most people) has a life and a job and a family and couldn’t afford to spend a night camped out on a sidewalk like a homeless person, so instead would rather pay a pittance to some college kid with more time than commitments to do the waiting for him.

No one ever found any proof that it was in fact the developer. But people sure do love repeating the myth (as you just did).

#98 Vangrrl on 06.03.14 at 7:48 am

Before you buy that house…
Mandatory testing for radon levels:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/high-radon-levels-found-in-health-canada-tests-across-country-1.2662610

#99 tonyw on 06.03.14 at 8:04 am

11 Wellesley is relatively expensive – close to $700 per square foot when just over $600 might work.
Before these “line-ups”, the real estate brokers had already had their VIP priority viewings and 1st kick at the cat. They have already purchased for their friends, families and investors and “earned” a 4% commission…
Several other buildings in this ‘hood are currently “marketing” their suites.

#100 Hillbilly on 06.03.14 at 8:44 am

comment # 91 Buy? Curious?

“… these places are getting snatched up by smart go-getters like myself…”

“… they will be worth double…”

Your posting is the antithesis of prudent and successful investing.

A list of your shortcomings in your thesis, by no means exhaustive , would include;

1) bad timing – emergency low interest rates and credit availability, end of cycle stuff

2) bad strategy – buy high in an attempt to sell higher

3) bad risk management – buying a highly levered asset with very high transaction costs

4) bad mental state – ego gets in the way of making prudent business decisions, boasting and self aggrandizement is evident in your post which badly colours investment decisions

5) no diversification – single asset in one location in one market with outsize single commitment as a percentage of available resources

6) publicizing your movements – providing your own competition in a very narrow market

In short, you are a fool and your post proves this.

#101 Buy? Curious? on 06.03.14 at 8:47 am

#96 saskatoon on 06.03.14 at 6:46 am

“Garth, isn’t there something wrong with this?

Technically or morally? — Garth”

Like it makes a difference?

Bwahahaha!

#102 Hillbilly on 06.03.14 at 8:49 am

comment # 97

You are naive, disingenuous or just plain stupid.

Do you think the developers will be issuing T 4’s ?
Do you think the recipients will include this as “earned income” on their tax returns ?

Or do you think they were paid in cash (in currency) ?

CRA is all over this. There is no escape. — Garth

#103 Hillbilly on 06.03.14 at 9:00 am

comment # 87 TakingResponsibility

Thanks for the informative post.

CMHC is a co-opted vote getting machine that was commandeered by Harper and Flaherty to cement their power – and it worked.

Not one in a hundred Canadian home buyers (unless they are of Permanent or Non – Permanent resident status – they all know this) gets this.

Nor do they understand that they are paying higher prices for home purchases because of it.

Markets full of un-informed participants usually end up punishing the ignorant.

Greater Fools indeed !

#104 Ralph Cramdown on 06.03.14 at 9:11 am

#97 Kevin — “Every time someone makes this accusation, I issue the same challenge: Prove it. Show me one verifiable example of a developer caught red-handed hiring line-fillers to simulate hype.”

The evidentiary standard on this blog isn’t “how can we convince Kevin beyond a reasonable doubt?”

Salting a crowd with ringers is a technique old enough and well known enough that the question isn’t ‘Do developers do it?’ but ‘If they don’t, why not?’

Turn on your TV any evening and the sitcoms will have laugh tracks.

Here’s Billy Graham and others like him helping audience members figure out what to do:

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/getreligion/2014/02/concerning-all-those-fake-baptisms-at-elevation-church/

Here’s a Canadian real estate marketing agency engaging in similar behaviour:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/02/21/mac-marketing-solutions-manager-quits-vancouver-real-estate_n_2733931.html

#105 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 06.03.14 at 9:37 am

This thing’s huge. Sixty stories high. Almost 700 units. (Jeez, boy, you could put all of Lunenburg in there.) And, when built (maybe) in 2018, it will sit in one of the most urban spots in Canada – at Yonge Street, a mere seven-minute hoof up from King & Bay.
_______________________________________________

Just got an ecellant Idea Garth from my childhood days around Lunenberg, Lets build condos in the Ovens and sell them to idiots from Toronto as vacation condos!

#106 lala on 06.03.14 at 9:38 am

#91 Buy? Curious?

Nice try dude, don’t worry too much about your house because your are so smart go-getter, pathetic.

#107 TorontoBull on 06.03.14 at 9:38 am

“HAM does not mean Canadians of Asian heritage. — Garth”
Canadians of Asian decent can still be HAM if they get downpayment gifts from parents abroad for example

Get over it. — Garth

#108 Herb on 06.03.14 at 9:57 am

#36 Smoking Man,

I agree with you on your voting decision matrix!

Honour demands that I warn you to stop that right now. When you agree with me, you know you’re dead wrong!

#109 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 06.03.14 at 10:04 am

#49 Smoking Man on 06.02.14 at 9:37 pm
#39 Millenial on 06.02.14 at 8:44 pm
Good choice, never would have guessed there where Millennial’s with brains… Well done lad.
I got me feelers in a lot of business, I kid you not, if Wynne gets a majority, many are moving there business States side, immediately.
There not going to stick around and see what happens…
______________________________________________

You’re not far off the shot with that comment about companies moving stateside Smoking Man. Unfortunately with or without Wynne companies are moving to avoid insane taxation and regulations. Just updating our OSHA compliance as mandatory for July 1st. Then I get a visit from some piece if work at the Ministry of Silly Walks telling me to create a barrier-free and accessible workplace. We don’t have any employees with disabilities out of the 110 people working here. Not to say we wouldn’t hire anyone with a disability. We have a 2015 deadline to create a program and then start integrating that plan. So for starters this twit suggests we just have an elevator installed for the second level of our building. Sure just spend $125K for an elevator that is coming straight out of profit. Thats just a starter not including all of the new ramps and concrete work to be done. I can easily see $250K in renos to our building. Yep I wonder why companies move south?

#110 OttawaMike on 06.03.14 at 10:10 am

#34 Jsan on 06.02.14 at 8:15 pm

Good stuff. You nailed it with comedic accuracy.

#111 Herb on 06.03.14 at 10:24 am

#97 Kevin,

thank you for your assertion that no developer or real estate professional ever has, or even would, resort to such a marketing gimmick as a lawn buyer. I now suspect that there never has been a “yellow helicopter” or, for that matter, any falsehood in real estate advertising, practices or procedures. Nothing but the truth and the benefit of the prospective client.

I really needed your reassurance after years of inescapable exposure to that industry had turned me into a skeptic. You should ask your real estate board to give you a pat on the head.

#112 Rainclouds on 06.03.14 at 10:32 am

# 67 Larry Who?

It gets better………..really:-)

http://www.wdunning.com/docs/Bubble-report-2014-03-12.pdf

#113 MC on 06.03.14 at 10:33 am

I slightly snorted my morning coffee reading below this morning…Just when I thought didn’t have another entertaining angle…

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Sotheby+offers+private+helicopter+service+luxury+homebuyers/9902427/story.html

#114 Marie on 06.03.14 at 10:42 am

Paul Krugman wrote yesterday that low interest rates might be the new normal. http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/06/02/for-bonds-this-time-is-different/?_php=true&_type=blogs&smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto&_r=0
If that is true, how will it affect our housing market?

#115 Whipster on 06.03.14 at 10:43 am

#97 Kevin

Proof enough? And they are working again (sigh)

http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2013/02/13/ctv-tv-news-featured-condo-buyer-actually-a-marketer-of-very-same-condos/

#116 Derek on 06.03.14 at 10:49 am

Explanation why interest will stay low and may be even lower for a very long period of time. Contrary to what Garth is touting.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/stocks-still-somewhat-undervalued-siegel-says-j0XvCnuBSkGrJslgNHzSDg.html

In flogging his buy-stocks-now book, an academic says rates will stay low because of demographics. He’s wrong. — Garth

#117 jag mann on 06.03.14 at 10:55 am

#84 Naga on 06.02.14 at 11:56 pm

And that, right there, is all you all need to know. By far the most insightful comment here. Garth can shut his blog down now because Naga had just summarized it all for you. And I am not being sarcastic.

Unless you have a super computer and an accurate way to model the 6 parameters that Naga outlines, predicting the direction of real estate is futile…. Just a guess.

Now turn off the phone/tablet/pc and go do something constructive with your time!

#118 young & foolish on 06.03.14 at 11:15 am

Why are so many people waiting for the big RE correction?

As opposed to buying at the top? Perhaps they’re not young & foolish. — Garth

#119 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 06.03.14 at 11:21 am

Mongolia!

http://www.mongolia-properties.com/mongolia/real-estate

#120 Gregor Samsa on 06.03.14 at 11:58 am

I also disagree with you on rates Garth. Rates will stay low because governments are not quite as stupid as we think they are. Do you really think the Harper government doesn’t know how disastrous a rate hike would be to housing, and therefore their precious fake economy?

So they will do absolutely everything in their power to keep rates low indefinitely. This is no surprise because this is exactly what they have already been doing.

Harper won’t have a housing crash in 2015 leading into an election. He’d be out buying houses himself before he lets that happen.

(a) The US government (richer than ours) was helpless to stop a housing correction and (b) the feds don’t set interest rates. — Garth

#121 LET THEM EAT CAKE! on 06.03.14 at 11:59 am

(their ‘New to Canada’ programs. As one industry insider tells me, “A Canadian with a 35% down payment but no confirmation of income will find it damn near impossible to get a mortgage, but a New to Canada or non-resident will not have the same issue.”)

More burden for Canadians to carry.

Our family fought in WW2 and lost one of our own so we can put banking rules in place based on the color of your skin.

All Canadians are equal. Just some are more equal than others. According to our Government you can always tell by their race!

That was ugly. — Garth

#122 Buy? Curious? on 06.03.14 at 12:01 pm

#100 Hillbilly on 06.03.14 at 8:44 am

These are your points? “bad timing, bad strategy, bad risk management, bad mental state” Where did you get your crystal ball and do have some help or ladder getting down from your high horse?

Supply and demand, demographics, poor city planning and past preformances in real estate are the only things I need to look at to feel good about my call. When I bought my second last house, it almost doubled in the 5 years I owned it. The people that bought it off me 6 years ago have almost certainly doubled their money. Do you see a pattern, Hillbilly? Toronto is where it’s at, well, for Canadians that is. The jobs are there! The opportunities are there! The culture, parties and women are there! And that’s why people want to live there.

I could care less about anything outside of Toronto. Keystone pipelines, Quebec separation, Atlantic Canada’s depopulation, I don’t care. All I know is, in 13 years, I’m selling to some rich asian/iranian/russian family and I’m gone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFh5FzXIeBg

#123 Mixed Bag on 06.03.14 at 12:11 pm

Off topic… I noticed that the provincial candidates, and their local candidates, are taking a page out of Rob Ford’s book, using the terms, “Respect for the Taxpayer”, or “Respect for the Taxpayer Dollar”. Now that I think about it, I’ve noticed it for the NDP and Conservatives, not Liberals. Correct me if I’m wrong on that last statement.

Interesting.

#124 level hed on 06.03.14 at 12:13 pm

OK…here’s the plan…..fly into the country and flush your CDN passport down the jet toilet…claim refugee status and refuse to speak English……get a cheap mortgage….a guaranteed income statement from your refugee cheque…..and you’re in the real estate market…..easy peasy…… eh?

BTW….IMF, ECU…..are all behind Draghi’s QE program……so easy money is spreading…not contracting…….Canada has a lot of credit left to spoil….there is no way rates go up here in a generation….not with current rates below 2%

Xenophobia is the last refuge of losers. — Garth

#125 SHELTER THE MONEY NOT THE PEOPLE! on 06.03.14 at 12:18 pm

The 35% down payment scheme for “New Canadians” is simply a leverage scheme that pumps 200% more money into the property market than would otherwise have gone into it.
My friend, a mortgage broker tells me he gets calls all day long from “New Canadians” rate shopping. Even one or 2 basis points will get him the business over the next bank. The “New Canadians” know they can get any property they want without any paperwork or income statement.
No where in the world could “New Canadians get such a free ride ahead of the locals.”
This scheme is a huge factor in Lower mainland real estate prices.
This scheme should be called what it really is: “PUMP AND DUMP”

You have no idea what you’re talking about. Nobody gets a mortgage without paper or an income. But you have nicely reinforced the racist image of Vancouver. — Garth

#126 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.03.14 at 12:27 pm

One word “Mellennials”

They are currently 19 to 37 years of age
They are the children of the Baby Boomers
70% of them expect to become homeowners in the next 5 years
They are a larger group than the Baby Boomers 92m vs 85m
They will inherit the Baby Boomers wealth

You think THAT is not significant? THINK again.

Could you at least spell it correctly? — Garth

#127 David Lee on 06.03.14 at 12:35 pm

@#77 Mark:

I’m interested to hear your take on this:

http://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/1524393/1300-rich-chinese-join-lawsuit-over-axing-canada-visa-scheme

#128 Veej on 06.03.14 at 12:36 pm

Next Vancouver reality show – ultra rich Asian girls of Vancouver

Probably a hoax right Garth? Doesn’t exist and certainly doesn’t have an affect on Van house prices. Oh wait, this is somehow considered racist right?

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2014/06/ultra-rich-asian-girls-vancouver-latest-reality-show/

#129 Lurcher on 06.03.14 at 12:48 pm

Meanwhile, over on the continent…:

http://www.news1130.com/2014/06/03/eurozone-inflation-falls-to-0-5-per-cent-adds-pressure-on-central-bank-to-act-thursday/

#130 Sean on 06.03.14 at 12:54 pm

Has to be a joke… 300 Square Feet – 878 Square Feet

The biggest unit is a two bedroom at 878??? And tons of units in the 300-<600 sq feet!

Who wants to buy or even rent something that small.

#131 frank le skank on 06.03.14 at 12:57 pm

#118 young & foolish on 06.03.14 at 11:15 am
Why are so many people waiting for the big RE correction?

As opposed to buying at the top? Perhaps they’re not young & foolish. — Garth

===============

Will Dunning’s CAAMP report seems to indicate that only 9% of people think there’s no real estate bubble.

#132 Richie Rich on 06.03.14 at 1:06 pm

The ultra rich girls of Vancouver.
http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2014/06/ultra-rich-asian-girls-vancouver-latest-reality-show/

Haters gonna hate.

Real estate doing well folks. Sorry to disappoint.

#133 SHELTER THE MONEY NOT THE PEOPLE on 06.03.14 at 1:11 pm

You have no idea what you’re talking about. Nobody gets a mortgage without paper or an income. But you have nicely reinforced the racist image of Vancouver. — Garth

Actually Garth I dont have a racist bone in my body. I am however hurt by racist policies of our government. Just as a New Canadian would be hurt by unfair treatment in his new home I am hurt by unfair treatment by my government and here is why.

I am not your average Canadian born Canadian.
Mixed marriage and 7 children.
Also Self – employed businessman.
Even though I make a very good income and live quite well , tax rules according to my accountant say I can share lots of expenses with my business. I can also split income with my wife.
My actual income on paper is too low to get mortgage approval. House prices are crazy here but even though through the years I have been close to getting back into a home after losing our home to a family tragedy.

I have been renting in the early 2000’s for $2200 per month while the house I rented went up in value $15000.00 per month for the whole 3 years I was there.
While you may want this blog to look nice and color blind. The truth is that there are people in this country getting preferential treatment who don’t even work. Meanwhile I create jobs and cannot even qualify to get a mortgage.
I heard about the “New Canadian” mortgage rules a few years ago and was upset and hurt then. Now that you reminded me about it again today I realize I am still hurt about it.
We are talking about money and money is life.
You are mistaken again by saying that they do need an income.
No, “New Canadians” do not need to show income to get a 65% mortgage on any residential property.

Prove it. — Garth

#134 Hulot on 06.03.14 at 1:17 pm

#116 Derek

Didn’t you know Garth is more prescient than Ben Bernanke and Wharton School finance professor Siegel?

#135 JWF on 06.03.14 at 1:20 pm

36, 41, 79, 82

It’s a sad state of affairs, but if you think that Kathleen, Andrea, or Tim have even a single shred of your best interests in mind, you are deluded. Even if they cared once upon a time, by the time they get to the top, they’ve forgotten who they work for.

The deck is stacked against anyone who gives a damn, and I’m not sure that there is a way to change it without having self-serving people change the rules that serve them best. Fat chance.

Just ask Garth, but don’t think that it’s only the PCs.

#136 Smoking Man on 06.03.14 at 1:26 pm

Herb I’m never wrong, your just right for once:)

#137 Hulot on 06.03.14 at 1:27 pm

#116 Derek

…and Garth doesn’t flog any books.

Where do you see any book sales mechanism on this site? — Garth

#138 randman on 06.03.14 at 1:38 pm

Be afraid…be very afraid…

At West Point Obama told us, to the applause of West Point cadets, that “American exceptionalism” is a doctrine that justifies whatever Washington does. If Washington violates domestic and international law by torturing “detainees” or violates the Nuremberg standard by invading countries that have undertaken no hostile action against the US or its allies, “exceptionalism” is the priest’s blessing that absolves Washington’s sins against law and international norms. Washington’s crimes are transformed into Washington’s affirmation of the rule of law. Here is Obama in his own words:

“I believe in American exceptionalism with every fiber of my being. But what makes us exceptional is not our ability to flout international norms and the rule of law; it is our willingness to affirm them through our actions.”

Actions indeed. In the 21st century “American exceptionalism” has destroyed seven countries in whole or in part. Millions of people are dead, maimed, and displaced, and all of this criminal destruction is evidence of Washington’s reaffirmation of international norms and the rule of law. Destruction and murder are merely collateral damage from Washington’s affirmation of international norms.”

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/06/02/obama-told-us-west-point-paul-craig-roberts/

#139 SHELTER THE MONEY NOT THE PEOPLE on 06.03.14 at 1:46 pm

#127 David Lee on 06.03.14 at 12:35 pm
http://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/1524393/1300-rich-chinese-join-lawsuit-over-axing-canada-visa-scheme

You can blame our weak government for this type of lawsuit stretching over the border from non-Canadians.

It reeks of the weakness of sovereignty when the Americans reached into our country to extradite Marc Emery who had broken no Canadian Law!

The Lawyers are having a heyday with foreigners who wish to sue our Government. They are getting rich tying up our courts with Law suits from people who don’t have rights in our country.

This is the reason for a country… To protect the rights of the CITIZENS. Not foreigners. Even though we are flattered they chose us, we still have the right to decide who gets in and how many!

Just go away. You’re proof we can raise our own idiots. — Garth

#140 Yo on 06.03.14 at 1:46 pm

What has really surprised me with the new CHMC restrictions

1. You can’t use CHMC for second property (speculation)
2. You need to show proof of income if you are self employed.

I mean, really? I thought these type of rules would be basic, not just introduced now 10 years into a housing boom. The point of CHMC is to help ownership for people who can not afford housing the conventional way (20% downpayment). Not help people speculate on property, buy a $1m home and not even have to show proof of income?

It doesn’t smell right.

#141 Doug in London on 06.03.14 at 1:50 pm

@Buy? Curious?, post #122:
In reading your post I’m reminded of the saying: the only thing we learn from history is that many people (yourself included of course) learn nothing from history.

#142 Ralph Cramdown on 06.03.14 at 1:51 pm

#126 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate — “They are a larger group than the Baby Boomers 92m vs 85m. They will inherit the Baby Boomers wealth”

If you sign one client whose jacket is that he has lots of student loans and graduated into a crummy job market, but daddy’s loaded, the appropriate response is “nice catch.”

If that’s the situation of an entire generation from which you need to recruit first time buyers, the right words are “oh crap.”

P.S. In terms of market power of various generations, I really think you need to work in terms of percentages rather than absolute numbers. Growing population and all that…

#143 Old Man on 06.03.14 at 2:06 pm

The debate coverage starts early tonight at 6:30 PM so get out your tv dinner trays. I personally like a woman who can answer questions unlike Caesar. Knew a gal in highschool called Kathleen who had a brain, and with a name like Wynne (Win) what else can I say!

#144 Mister Obvious on 06.03.14 at 2:15 pm

#84 Naga

“only idiots have lost money owning over the last 50, 40 30 and especialy last 10 years “

———————————–
The term ‘lost money’ needs to be better defined. Say a real estate agent promises your house will easily fetch $1.2 M and you believe her. Then, after 18 month on the market and little interest you let it go for only $900K. Is that a loss?

Have ALL (including opportunity costs) costs been accounted for at the time of the sale? This blog has gone over that concept a million times.

I have known people who were not particularly financially astute (but neither were they idiots) who have indeed lost money on real-estate in the last 10 years. It’s exceedingly easy to do and always has been, bubble or no bubble. And it looks like it’s about to get a lot easier.

#145 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.03.14 at 2:23 pm

“Could you at least spell it correctly?” — Garth

That’s an AWESOME rebuke.

But now let’s seriously consider the impact the Millennial generation is likely to have on our real estate markets. They are a significant market with unique and specific wants and needs. To dismiss them would be to ignore the largest real estate buying demographic – first time buyers, 70% of which plan to buy within the next 5 years.

#146 Mark on 06.03.14 at 2:36 pm

“I’m interested to hear your take on this:”

Sure, lots of “Chinese” might want to come to Canada, but most of their “wealth” is tied up in factories, domestic real estate, businesses, and the like. Most of them wouldn’t be bringing any significant amount of cash either, even if they did hit Canada’s shores. The number is likely, as well, exaggerated.

As for a lawsuit against a sovereign nation for merely changing its policy, not going to succeed. But some lawyers will get rich giving the “Chinese” a basic education on the law.

#147 Old Man on 06.03.14 at 2:56 pm

#128 Veej – I would call it something else such as self imposed destruction of character, dignity, and class. I have known young women with big money and they for the most part are humble, secretive, and guarded with a closed social life and their own peer group.

#148 Mark on 06.03.14 at 2:57 pm

“The point of CHMC is to help ownership for people who can not afford housing the conventional way (20% downpayment).”

Not really. If one can’t afford a 20% downpayment, and the savings acumen that goes along with it, it is doubtful that they could afford the house with a sub-prime loan either (which is what the CMHC facilitates).

So what the CMHC really does is provide a huge implicit subsidy to the RE sector. CMHC Sub-prime loans that ordinarily would yield 8-10%, are alchemized into the equivalent of GoC bonds.

In fact, it is cheaper for a residential retail borrower to borrow (at roughly 2.5% these days for a 5-year term mortgage, after commissions have been paid) than it is for BCE to borrow $1B secured by a solid cash-flowing business, with some pretty tough covenants (at 3.51%).

#149 ozy - we could create a lineup as well on 06.03.14 at 3:02 pm

hahaha – we could create a lineup as well – we should organize in a way and denounce all abuses

home owners and renters still share a common goal – property tax and house price stability

sound the call, Garth!

#150 Mark on 06.03.14 at 3:05 pm

“Explanation why interest will stay low and may be even lower for a very long period of time. Contrary to what Garth is touting.”

Not really. You need to learn the difference between retail rates, charged against specific types of collateral (ie: a house, a portfolio of stocks, a brick of gold, a business, etc.), and policy rates.

Policy rates will likely remain low for a considerable period of time, but that doesn’t mean that rates against specific types of collateral won’t change. In fact, as the over-supply of houses in Canada increases, retail rates against houses specifically are likely to rise. While rates against other types of investments and collateral may very well fall.

The example I like to give is that residential retail borrowers can currently obtain 5-year term financing for 2.5%, while BCE paid 3.51% for 5-year term financing recently. Next year, even without the BoC changing its policy, residential retail borrowers could be paying 3.5% (ie: 4% including commissions), while BCE could be paying 2.5%. Its ultimately up to the lenders and investors to decide where they want to put their money, and as housing prices decline and go out of favour, it is likely they’re increasingly going to be less favourable to the home borrowers.

#151 Mark on 06.03.14 at 3:18 pm

“The Chinese real estate market is in collapse as reported by the latest edition of “The Economist”. Meaning they the Chinese will sell secondary properties first like a Canadian would unload a cottage here first.”

The “Chinese” don’t own any meaningful amount of RE in Canada. If Canadian RE collapses, it will be entirely from domestic causes, namely the market not having enough demand due to a reduction of CMHC subprime credit. Which is what we’ve been witnessing in the past year in the GVR, GTA, and Calgary markets with the price declines.

#152 Old Man on 06.03.14 at 3:28 pm

#151 Mark – would it not be appropriate to point out that in mainland China it is the State who holds title of ownership based upon a long term lease. It is not freehold, so I too would buy property in Canada as a better option in life.

#153 chapter 9 on 06.03.14 at 3:36 pm

#138 randman
“The people can always be brought to the bidding of their leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for a lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country.”
Hermann Wilhelm Goring

#154 TheCatFoodLady on 06.03.14 at 3:38 pm

#126 – Devil’s Advocate: 70% of Millennials MAY expect to be home owners in the next 5 years… who exactly was surveyed? Was this survey exclusive to those who are not home owners rather than a random sampling?

That many, (assuming they don’t currently own) may expect to own but reality might prove differently. If they do ‘expect’ to own – how are they preparing, I wonder? Are they saving or investing towards a down payment? Are they primarily counting on BeeMom/Dad?

Speaking of the parents. The millennials may not see as much inheritance as they are hoping for. Too many boomers are already carrying too much debt. They haven’t saved for retirement. They may need spendy health care in their declining years. They may be ponying up for elderly parents & their care. Perhaps they’re already heavily subsiding expenses for their kids – helping repay student loans, car & other payments…

Is that ‘inheritance’ going to be available as some form of cash or is it tied up in real estate or other not very liquid form?

#155 Tony on 06.03.14 at 3:38 pm

Re: #151 Mark on 06.03.14 at 3:18 pm

The Chinese are basically 100 percent responsible for the real estate bubble in Canada. Buy high and hope to sell higher very rarely works in the long run. What the Canadian government should do is seize all the real estate bought with illegal funds from overseas. What’s happening in China will happen in Canada. You must live in the wrong parts of the country. You’ll learn.

The fools are out in force today. — Garth

#156 ontarioNOPC on 06.03.14 at 3:51 pm

Man I havent lived in ontario in a while, are they really stupid enough to vote PC again after mike harris?

People forget the money lost on the 427? the teachers and public sector strikes? the constant mismanagement and scandals?

I mean how many harper people worked with mike harris!! A LOT.

#157 ontarioNOPC on 06.03.14 at 3:53 pm

Oops meant 407.

#158 Old Man on 06.03.14 at 4:19 pm

#136 Smoking Man – there is a huge crowd in the core of downtown Toronto as far as the eye can see. I thought it was a riot or protest at first, but upon careful observation they are cheering for Kathleen ahead of tonight’s debate with signs, smiles, cheers, and great enthusiasm too.

#159 Mark on 06.03.14 at 4:29 pm

“Man I havent lived in ontario in a while, are they really stupid enough to vote PC again after mike harris?”

Public sector strikes mean that the government is doing its job of reducing the size and pay of the public service to something that’s reasonable. And the Ontario economy boomed under Mike Harris. The TSX (TSE) hit a record high which really hasn’t been eclipsed in inflation-adjusted terms under Mike Harris. Ontario actually had growth sectors other than RE under Mike Harris. I don’t know why Mike Harris would be maligned except by the crowd that wants government to provide for everything.

#160 Toronto_CA on 06.03.14 at 4:29 pm

#156 ontarioNOPC on 06.03.14 at 3:51 pm

As much as I don’t care for Hudak or the Federal PC party, the Ontario Liberal record is even less appealing (some items off my head: eHealth, Ornge, Power plant scandals, environmental tax fiasco, G20 police abuse, deleting of incrimenating records/emails while under OPP investigation, extremely expensive hydro bills driving out manufacturing, massive defecit and debt ballooning, etc.) . It’s not much better than Harris’s record. And I’ve never voted anything but Liberal in my life, but I can’t ignore this. A party in power so long just seems to be unable to stay clean from scandal, waste and corruption.

Ontarians are fed up with all the parties and many people I know don’t think there is a good choice here.

Also – *many* are disturbed by the recent OPP union endorsement advertisement; there’s something very creepy about a uniformed policeman standing in front of a squad car telling you who (not) to vote for in a free and democratic soceity. Coupled with the G20 abuse of powers (McGuinty and the Liberals agreed to some pretty radical laws under cover of darkness), it’s pretty disturbing.

Too bad no party will come out and say that having a publicly paid for religious school system is extremely disturbing in a secular soceity, particularly one as oppresive against women and gays as the Catholics. Not to mention having two separate public school systems is inefficient/expensive.

Sigh.

#161 Joe2.0 on 06.03.14 at 4:30 pm

Re Asian money.
There are an estimated 188,000 or one hundred and eighty eight thousand millionares in Singapore alone.
(Huff Post)

China has well over one million millionaires and growing daily (2013 Financial Post)

Our landlord is Chinese.
His father is wealthy and living in China .
He is purchasing land and businesses through his son.
These business meet a criteria for immigration that open doors for new Canadians.

Just add a good immigration lawyer to bypass and fast track current “rules”

To think that people can not fast track immigration
and skirt apparent rules is naive.

I won’t even get into how much money ended up in Vancouver RE when the Shaw fled..
The British Properties was flooded with money from people who had also left with the ill gotten gains.
The once tagged martini mountain is now referred to as Persain heights.

That was the beginning of the migration of the Persains into Vancouver.

The golden rule isn’t prejudice.

Now we hate Persians, too? — Garth

#162 Mark on 06.03.14 at 4:32 pm

“151 Mark – would it not be appropriate to point out that in mainland China it is the State who holds title of ownership based upon a long term lease. It is not freehold, so I too would buy property in Canada as a better option in life.”

Same in Canada — go look up the definition of fee simple. Her Majesty still holds the senior position on all land titles in Canada. Not a lot different than in China.

#163 Smoking Man on 06.03.14 at 4:49 pm

#158 Old Man on 06.03.14 at 4:19 pm#136 Smoking Man – there is a huge crowd in the core of downtown Toronto as far as the eye can see. I thought it was a riot or protest at first, but upon careful observation they are cheering for Kathleen ahead of tonight’s debate with signs, smiles, cheers, and great enthusiasm too.
……..

Yes those bike riding, tree hugging, condo dwelling automobile Nazis

Win is going to burn them so bad.

One had the odasity to tell me I was to close to the building having a smoke.

I said watch this, I walked into the building smoking it…

I am Smoking Man.

#164 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.03.14 at 4:52 pm

#154 TheCatFoodLady on 06.03.14 at 3:38 pm

Good questions. Of course one could generalize and say that Millenials live at home, have been coddled by their parents to the point they feel ‘special’ and all else including that money they stand to inherit is not so likely. From my vantage point I am experiencing that they are representing a growing segment of my business (I’m a Boomer) and consequently I see them as a very real and important market. My Millenial business is growing while that of my Boomer business is clearly beginning to shrink.

#165 bdy sktrn on 06.03.14 at 5:12 pm

clearly the libs in ont will get crushed.

#166 I love real estate on 06.03.14 at 5:14 pm

For what it is worth I think that real estate is not really
under any pressure that cannot be properly understood
as abnormal or leading to a major decline.

All looks fine.
Especially in the GTA, where demand from the
immigrant groups continues.

Need proof?
Find anyone selling at a loss.
It just is not happening and all this doom and gloom has really amounted to nothing.

#167 randman on 06.03.14 at 5:16 pm

It’s coming folks….

If this isn’t enough to concern you …then you are brain dead

Can no one see what’s happening in the world, for want of their concern over real estate prices?

“Attorney General Eric Holder, citing an “escalating danger from self-radicalized individuals within our own borders,” said Tuesday that the Justice Department will revive a domestic terrorism task force.

The task force was established after the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995 to share information about domestic threats. It was set to meet the morning of Sept. 11, 2001, after which the country turned its focus to terror overseas. ”

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/attorney-general-eric-holder-revives-domestic-terror-task-force-n121026

Task force = Gestapo

“But now, as the nature of the threat we face evolves to including the possibility of individual radicalization via the Internet, it is critical that we return our focus to potential extremists here at home,” Holder said in a weekly video.

#168 Aggregator on 06.03.14 at 5:18 pm

25,000 Tell Citizenship Minister to Stop Proposed Changes to Citizenship Law

VANCOUVER (June 3, 2014) – The BC Civil Liberties Association and the Canadian Association of Refugee Lawyers delivered their petition of over 25 000 names to a Citizenship and Immigration office in Vancouver this morning. The petition asks the Citizenship Minister to not pass Bill C-24, legislation that introduces sweeping changes to Canada’s citizenship laws, including creating second-class Canadians with fewer rights. In addition, 60 legal and academic experts in citizenship and immigration have also issued an open letter asking the government to revise the bill, calling it a “serious threat to the rights of all Canadians.”

So the government's solution to preventing the influx of corrupt immigrants (As noted by the PBOC itself) is to grant them citizenships with the condition that if they get caught for fraud, they get kicked out of Canada. Well that's just brillilant.

Corrupt Chinese Officials Take $123 Billion Overseas

The higher ranking they were, the report says, the more likely they were to go to Western nations. Top destinations for high-level thieves included the U.S., Canada, Australia and the Netherlands.

I can't tell the difference anymore: Politicians, thieves, they're both the same.

#169 Old Man on 06.03.14 at 5:21 pm

#162 Mark – so when is the Queen going to foreclose on us all? Should we live in fear or put her on the hate list too? God Save The Queen!

#170 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 06.03.14 at 5:41 pm

The second photo gives a better perspective.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-30681834.html

#171 Mark on 06.03.14 at 5:42 pm

“#162 Mark – so when is the Queen going to foreclose on us all? Should we live in fear or put her on the hate list too? God Save The Queen!”

She demands tax from you every year, does she not?

#172 Hillbilly on 06.03.14 at 6:00 pm

comment # 122 Buy? Curious?

Go for it big boy !

By your posting, you are clearly a genius who would never stoop to consider a reasoned analysis or macro-economic factors in probably the largest investments of your lifetime.

So, go ahead with your infinite price extrapolation and let no one deter you from what you KNOW the future holds.

I hear there are some openings at Goldman Sacks for a man of such unshakeable and infallible business acumen.

#173 Mark on 06.03.14 at 6:01 pm

“For what it is worth I think that real estate is not really
under any pressure that cannot be properly understood
as abnormal or leading to a major decline.”

Why are prices in the GTA, GVR, Calgary, etc. falling on identical properties? Why are the Realtors freaking out, going so far as to place advertisements with paramilitary forces threatening people who don’t use Realtors? Why are the banks so desperate for mortgage borrowers that they’re paying large inducements? Why is the BoC miles away from meeting an inflation target even at almost record low interest rates?

It all points to a dramatically slowed RE sales economy and lower prices.

#174 Hillbilly on 06.03.14 at 6:12 pm

comment # 159 Mark

Well written and accurate – everybody loves to hate Harris, despite his track record and the fact that he delivered what he promised (largely) while campaigning for office.

Just that everyone expected changes, but not to have to pay for it.

comment # 160 Toronto_CA

Good synopsis, but I think the police union ads are a little more than creepy – and I think (and hope) they may backfire on them.

#175 Hillbilly on 06.03.14 at 6:20 pm

comment # 162 Mark

You are correct about this, but “fee simple” is different than “leasing” land.

What not 1 in 10 Canadians understands (except RE lawyers perhaps) is that they don’t “own” the land they have purchased, but rather a ‘bundle of rights’ attached thereto upon which taxes are levied, essentially in perpetuity.

The ultimate “ownership” lies with the Crown.

I think that was your point, no?

#176 Hillbilly on 06.03.14 at 6:22 pm

comment # 169 Old Man

Try not paying realty taxes for about two years and see what happens.

#177 Bill Gable on 06.03.14 at 6:39 pm

I know we are always talking RE here – so I want to throw this log on the fire.

Interest rates haven’t been like this since Nero – with that in minds let’s take a look at say, the S+P 500.

May 23rd – only 20 of 500 stocks hit their 52 week highs. Yet the 500 is in nosebleed territory.

Volume? What Volume? Worst since 2008.
What gives?
The Bond Vigilantes are mounting up – the ECB, as you said in today’s teleconference, Garth, is on life support – the job growth in Canada is colder than the newly cancelled Ron James show, and we have youth unemployment – EVERYWHERE – at DEPRESSION levels.

So what’s the disconnect?

The Printing Press.

Governments are terrified of deflation – and so it is pump til the cows come home.

This all smells.

The whole construct reminds me of the Windows Operating system. The core code is the same that changed lights in New Mexico, when Jobs and Gates were just starting out.

It is like we are balancing on the head of an HB Pencil.

I don’t get it.

#178 Herb on 06.03.14 at 6:50 pm

#170 rosie “moving forward” …

heck, it sure is different here – you can get a prison cell for much less in Canada.

#179 Smoking Man on 06.03.14 at 6:51 pm

Horvath kicking ass.

Wynne on the ropes

How did Mr Bean get in the debate.

#180 Hawk on 06.03.14 at 8:10 pm

#175 Hillbilly on 06.03.14 at 6:20 pm

====================

Agreed ownership is an illusion; there is no allodial ownership in most of the world for an average “citizen” and even in the few instances it exists, the governments could always disregard it in real life when TSHTF.