Laughable

CAR

Snapped in North Van last weekend.

Memo to people living in Vancouver: Yesterday’s blog post was not about offshore buyers or Asians. I know you can’t help yourself. But try to look at the larger issue (which was what I actually wrote about).

Real estate is unaffordable most places, and a complete mess in Van, not because the Chinese or aliens are driving up prices, but more because bankers are driving down standards. By lowering the bar for a real estate purchase, and encouraging dollops of new debt, the enablers are helping to inflate prices.

That’s why Vancity’s mortgage-helper program, which drops the required down to just 2.5%, is worthy of dissing. Ditto for its interest-only payments mortgage and the one aimed at financing conversion of your garage into rental space, so you can pay the other mortgage on your house.

Of course, it’s not just Vancity. The big banks, like RBC and CIBC do the same thing – offering cash-back financing for virginal homebuyers so they can get around the requirement for a 5% downpayment. In fact the Bay Streeters will proffer up to $20,000 on a mortgage of four hundred grand – again making a mockery of the 5% rule.

Worse, almost every moist new homebuyer with less than 20% to put down on a home (thus avoiding CMHC insurance) adds the premium to the principal borrowed. Right now that’s 2.75% of a mortgage taken with a 5% down payment, which rises in a couple of weeks to 3.15%. So, by borrowing 95% of the cost of the real estate and adding in the CMHC premium, the kids are actually able to finance 98.15% of the property. And let’s remember if this is a CIBC or a Vancity deal, they might have been gifted half of the other 1.85%, meaning they bought the house with cash equivalent to 0.9% of its market value.

Not only that, but this could have come from a credit card advance.

Last week the bank cop, OSFI (Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions), grumbled once again about the impact of cash-back mortgages, urging insurers like CMHC and Genworth not to cover deals where bank bribes were involved. “Incentive and rebate payments should not be considered part of the down payment,” it said. So far, nobody is listening much. That includes the new F, Joe Oliver.

By the way, it’s worth noting that credit unions (like Vancity) can actually write 100% mortgages if they want, since they’re not federally-regulated (but borrowers still need high-ratio insurance).

And here you are worried about Asians.

***

Looks like hundreds more homebuyers and citizens will soon be losing their ability to watch what’s happening, in real time, to real estate prices in their community. It’s the spread of the deadly Frankenumber – CREA’s indecipherable, homogenized, trend-masking, faux housing index – which realtors are hoping will supplant average or median prices in the data they gingerly release to consumers.

And why would they wish this?

Because a Home Price Index is not scary. It’s an index, not an actual price. It doesn’t allow for meaningful comparisons of one month’s numbers with another. And nobody outside of CREA’s geeks actually knows what the hell it means.

Remember the example I gave you a few days ago from Victoria, where the Frankenumber is in full use now? Said the board in its monthly media release: “Current MLS® HPI composite (inclusive of all single family homes, condos and townhomes sales) for the Victoria Real Estate Board area is 139.3 – compared to 139.1 this time last year. While these overall numbers indicate little change in the last 12 months, some areas have changed more than others. Local REALTORS® can interpret what this means to specific neighbourhoods in the region.”

Your house is worth 139.3? You’re confused? Then you need a REALTOR®.

The latest victims are the 750,000 people who live in Hamilton and Burlington. The local board is apparently poised to Frankenify its reporting. According to an internal memo, here’s why:

Members would benefit from the HPI by being able to:
• Help their clients understand home price trends
• Position themselves as credible, reliable source of insight into the real estate market
• Broaden their knowledge of municipal, regional and national real estate markets, and compare trends in those markets

RAHB would benefit from the HPI as well; when monthly statistical reports are sent to the media, the HPI will add credibility to the association’s reports and to the association’s position as “the” voice for real estate matters in its market area.

In other words, the board wishes to relieve citizens of the burden of actually knowing what the market is doing (in a way they understand, ie, the price of houses) and instead ensure they need to talk to an agent who can tell them what to think. This is especially handy to get established during a time of bubbly conditions and inflated markets, so it will take the public much longer to realize when it all starts heading south.

No wonder they have nice cars.

186 comments ↓

#1 Alberta Ed on 04.21.14 at 7:03 pm

Makes you wonder whose side Ottawa is on.

#2 TurnerNation on 04.21.14 at 7:05 pm

Large ocean goer, filed into bankruptcy.
http://www.gencoshipping.com
Guess there’s still something to the Baltic Dry Index. DSX.US is competition.

Anyway the best looking charts I see today are in Pharma: like XPH.US

#3 beauty eh! on 04.21.14 at 7:08 pm

WTF is 139.1????

Another Bit-coin measure!

#4 Darren on 04.21.14 at 7:11 pm

Neat plate..

#5 Shanks on 04.21.14 at 7:17 pm

1st!

#6 airhead princess on 04.21.14 at 7:17 pm

The balanced portfolio concept is dead .

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/04/18/4-investing-maxims-that-no-longer-stand-up/

Long live the stock picker

Learn to read. Not what was written. — Garth

#7 Jim on 04.21.14 at 7:17 pm

BOO !

#8 Ret on 04.21.14 at 7:17 pm

So what is the point of the OFSI and Joe Oliver if no one listens to them? Laughable says it all. They can’t connect the dots on this financial scenario?

How many millions are spent on their support staff to help them do, well, nothing?

#9 Mean Gene on 04.21.14 at 7:20 pm

Why rent? I do and took 6 weeks off work this past winter to go chill in New Zealand, Australia and Fiji. I live and work in the Fraser Valley, rarely venture into the City of Vancouver, bunch of navel gazers.

#10 MoBe on 04.21.14 at 7:22 pm

Garth, are you aware of any service that provides information similar to what Zillow offers for the US? Incredible amounts of information for every city and every neighborhood: http://www.zillow.com/

#11 World According To Garth on 04.21.14 at 7:25 pm

Its becoming allot more affordable in Kelowna. Taking the kids and husband up there this weekend to visit friend who moved up there a month ago. Can’t wait to compare. Have not been to Kelowna in 20 years.

#12 Retired WI Boomer on 04.21.14 at 7:31 pm

A LIE is a LIE is a LIE. Whatever the source. Be it the Realtor’s, or the politicians, or that date that whispered, “I love you.”

People who WANT something bad enough, usually get it.

Some live to regret “getting it” later on. Be it that great used car, the ex-wife, or the lying politician, or maybe that home peddler.

Caveat Emptor people. It’s your life Live it WELL!!

#13 dan on 04.21.14 at 7:33 pm

when you get a property in Canada you actually own an ATM machine and you get more respected in society

#14 dan on 04.21.14 at 7:37 pm

when I am in Europe I have a habit to look for homeless people and I do not see so many like in turdonto…

#15 Smartalox on 04.21.14 at 7:43 pm

So what back stops these provincially – regulated credit unions? Is it the BC government? That’s going to be a hell of a hit for the provincial economy to take. Or will it unravel like the failure of S&L companies in the US, where insolvent banks are sold off over the course of a weekend?

Also, has anyone actually TRIED to buy a home in Vancouver using only a credit card advance? Garth paints a pretty grim picture, but I’d love to see how difficult it actually is to complete all the steps in the transaction.

#16 Cici on 04.21.14 at 7:47 pm

It’s hilarious (as in a big joke) that most Canadians pride themselves as being more mentally astute than the average American.

As far as I know, the Americans have always had access to real home sale prices, and would never have allowed themselves to be fooled by a frankenumber.

#17 Vancouverite on 04.21.14 at 7:50 pm

Garth, thanks for another great writeup.

#18 World According To Garth on 04.21.14 at 7:52 pm

DELETED

#19 shane on 04.21.14 at 7:58 pm

Garth, what do you think of the Port Perry area

Which concession? — Garth

#20 Roman on 04.21.14 at 8:03 pm

Heh, so the banks do pay the home buyers to take on mortgage. Well, that’s not a surprise at at all and makes A LOT of sense actually, if you look what they do with those mortgages later on.

I wonder… if the house was a margin trading account, I think broker would have liquidated it already. They don’t really like 1 to 50 leverage with zero left in account for overnight maintenance.

Seriously, even most levered products, like futures on indexes have leverage 1:25-1:30 (E-mini for NDX as an example)

What all these clowns hoping for after buying 500k houses with 50x leverage, with zero left for maintenance? I simply don’t understand this. The slightest change in market condition, or volatility, or interest rate will wipe out most of them (or force a lot of pain).

#21 shane on 04.21.14 at 8:06 pm

Garth,close to downtown area not on the other side of the lake

#22 Craig on 04.21.14 at 8:07 pm

“And here you are worried about Asians.”

No.

I was worried about YOUR attitude towards this topic that stretches back a couple of years or so on this blog.

For some time people would voice their first hand experiences with the van market that pertained to buyers from China. Your response was always swift and aggressive, which was to call anyone down as “ignorant” or “racist” or a “hater” etc.

You also insisted on proof of the china influence, specifically numbers, because you denied that there was any influence by them at all. I know, at the very least, I provided you with some concrete numbers (maybe others did as well?). But again your response was to dismiss it and continue to call people ignorant and racist.

We know buyers from china are having a big impact on 2 maybe 3 real estate markets because the program that the Canadian government used to bring them over here wanted to have those people living in less populated areas of the country, like Manitoba etc..

Of course that was never going to happen as they, naturally, don’t want to live in the frozen wastes with no established community there waiting for them (another failed attempt at social engineering by the government of canada), and so all those people ended up in vancouver or toronto.

Also your sly innuendos that if a foreigner buys property in canada that instantly makes them a Canadian is just asinine as we know many do not actually live in the homes they purchase.

Out of control property prices isn’t just a problem in Canada. Australia which, as we all know, has some of THE highest property prices in the world; and so they tried to curb that by putting quotas on the number of foreigners who could purchase property in a given a year. A move which prompted you to brand all of Australia as a bunch of ‘racists’.

It is precisely that attitude that pisses so many people off. When an attempt at genuine discourse on the subject is made you try to control (or kill) the debate by constantly shaming and humiliating people via name calling, all the while you deny there was ever a shred of influence on prices.

Get a hobby. You are obsessed. Prices in Van are high because people there pay them. Greater fools. — Garth

#23 World According To Garth on 04.21.14 at 8:07 pm

DELETED

#24 Roman on 04.21.14 at 8:07 pm

#16 Cici, look at the cartel’s frankenwebsite that sell million buck houses to smart Canadians: it has fuc.ing 200px images!

Maybe Canadians are so smart that they don’t actually need any website or images or anything (except knowing it goes up always) to buy a house for million?

#25 KommyKim on 04.21.14 at 8:08 pm

RE:for the Victoria Real Estate Board area is 139.3 – compared to 139.1 this time last year.

It would be nice if Victoria gas prices were at 139.3c/L and had only increased by 0.2c/L since last year.

#26 Ralph Cramdown on 04.21.14 at 8:10 pm

Here’s his plate:
http://www.pl8s.org/wy-rent-bc/

Here’s his recent sales:
http://www.mmcondo.com/RecentSales.php

Sold $3.6m of real estate in the last 12 months. If he’s not on a generous split with his broker, I hope his mom’s a good cook.

#27 Smoking Man on 04.21.14 at 8:11 pm

Why do virgins buy Toronto real estate….. At these insane prices

Via the methodology employed by the educational industrial complex… How can they not.

Yellow highlighter, memorize, regurgitate, 50k later with obidance certificate nicely framed with an overly confident belief that you are smart..

When in fact the only skill you learned, highlighting things to memorize, when a good Google search is all that’s required leaving extra room up top to think, you also have been encourage to be part of the group, the consensu, be a member in good standing in the
tribe.

You will do without much thinking because your certificate is proof you’re smart.

You follow others, what is the best prop to demonstrate to your peers, parents, and priest that you have made it, you are smart..

Why it’s a million dollar mortgage…

Ahhhh the herd…..

Tr

#28 OttawaMike on 04.21.14 at 8:12 pm

I am typing a letter right now to Jason Kenney calling for the temporary foreign worker program to be expanded to Realtors.
We just don’t have enough Canadians to do those dirty jobs.

#29 Sebee on 04.21.14 at 8:13 pm

I’m tired Garth. Tired because the government/municipalities could surely release the accurate raw data related to monthly home sales as in units and bough price based on possession date. Why don’t they? Why do we rely on Realtors? I’ll tell you why, it’s in everyone’s interest to keep this going.

#30 dan on 04.21.14 at 8:14 pm

well, you wanna make money buy Pembina but buy newalta too as a hedge. good Canadian companies. I bought Pembina at 18 and newalta at 5 and look at them today…

#31 LJ on 04.21.14 at 8:20 pm

According to the HPI garbage statistics, the best place to live is in Winterpeg, with an index value of 195.23 in March 2014. Calgary and Vancouver are for poor folks where the dreamed up number only clocks in at 176.72 and 176.62 (respectively).

My dog’s house is worth 50 gazillion on their index… and, no-one can prove him wrong!!! (or, they’ll get barked at.)

#32 Linda Mulligan on 04.21.14 at 8:23 pm

#14 Dan: Don’t know if they still are out there, but saw what I can only term ‘professional’ beggars aplenty in Italy; lots of people who seemed to be squatting in both France & England too when I was last in Europe in late 2008. So maybe not technically ‘homeless’ although squatters are occupying buildings they neither own nor rent from the owner. Don’t know about the pro beggars but suspect they lived quite well when they were not working for their living. The economic downturn likely made things difficult – lots of amateurs muscling in on the pro action.

#33 Smoking Man on 04.21.14 at 8:24 pm

Continued……

After 15 to 20 years of learning to please the master and like a dog, rewarded with A’s who is given a milk bone for good behaviour, sit dog, fetch dog… Run dog….

You’re a good dog, a good blog dog….

Ha, ha… Not I.

I’m the bad boy, breaking bad boy…

Would have absolutely no qualms, moral restrictions of
lifting the customer list and stealing business from an
other bad dog….

Cause good dogs, work for bad dogs….

It’s always been that way, and always will be.

Bad dogs eat better than good dogs….

Woof, Woof…..

#34 Nemesis on 04.21.14 at 8:25 pm

#FromTheNicePeopleWhoBroughtYou: Messerschmitt AG #HistoryLessons #JosefUndFranzPopp #FindingForrester #AMPASNichollFellowships

http://youtu.be/TYz8fV80K6U

[CrypticNoteToSaltyDogsWithMovieMagic/FinalDraft: http://www.oscars.org/awards/nicholl/ ]

#35 Smoking Man on 04.21.14 at 8:26 pm

I am losing my mind…. And loving it….

#36 ontario guy on 04.21.14 at 8:27 pm

If you bought life insurance or auto insurance using the type of representations that the lenders are accused of using there would not be coverage on the “insured event” occurring. The “insured” would be accused of insurance fraud in not revealing the events that lead to an almost certain and sure loss. CMHC (or the govt of this country) needs to tell the lenders that reckless lending will not be insured whether it was done 3 years ago or today. And if CMHC did make that announcement, the howling would probably be immediate and loud giving strong proof to your allegations of careless and reckless lending made without any care as to the consequences and harm wreaked on the innocent and foolish dupes (as followed the publication of “Oliver Twist”). BUT THEN read the bios on the CMHC directors and tell us they are good insurers. This is like having the relatives of the near dead approving insurance policies.

please do not use my name other than “Ontario Guy” or do not publish. These people are far too powerful.

#37 World According To Garth on 04.21.14 at 8:27 pm

DELETED

#38 Kreditanstalt on 04.21.14 at 8:34 pm

“Real estate is unaffordable most places, and a complete mess in Van, not because the Chinese or aliens are driving up prices, but more because bankers are driving down standards. By lowering the bar for a real estate purchase, and encouraging dollops of new debt, the enablers are helping to inflate prices.”

Forest. Trees. Close, but no cigar…

Stop and ask WHY bankers are now able to lower that bar. Why are they now heedless of risk…?

#39 dan on 04.21.14 at 8:34 pm

well, I am an immigrant with a citizenship card and I can tell you a lot of canucks are ignorant and racist. trust me… but now because china is what it is, they point to Chinese a lot. Learn mandarine like Australian kids, they understood long ago it is important. you know mandarine you have a job. this is called the future and is actually here. Forget English. It is a language of paupers and peasants.

#40 X on 04.21.14 at 8:35 pm

The lack of oversight of the RE industry is ridiculous when you look at the individual net worth at stake.

Can’t OSFI fine the banks for allowing buyers to circumvent the borrowing rules.

Frankenumbers. You should make up something like that for the financial industry Garth. Oh, no wait, you would be criminally charged to misleading investors. But the RE industry has no repercussions, and answers to no one.

As the kids these days would say to you Joe Oliver. Fail!

#41 dan on 04.21.14 at 8:36 pm

yeah, and start to vote NDP, maybe one day you will have standard of living like Scandinavian socialists…

#42 Daisy Mae on 04.21.14 at 8:39 pm

#7 Jim: “BOO!”

***************

After writing an article about such a serious situation and receiving such stupid drivel in return, thanks very much for sticking with it. I appreciate your articles very much.

#43 Yuus bin Haad on 04.21.14 at 8:43 pm

Don’t fret Craig. Garth refused to listen to me about drug lords and African despots.

#44 Smoking Man on 04.21.14 at 8:45 pm

Had a fan email, she made reference to my writing, and said ice burg theory…. Said I’m a natural at it.

They messing with me… Is that complimentary, or insulting?

Is she calling me a cold harted bastard..?

Offered to help with Grammer and spelling… Probably wants to heist the manuscript…

Ha I’ve taught them well…. :)

My fans are weird..

#45 dan on 04.21.14 at 8:46 pm

Thank you Mr Turner, you are tolerant gentleman. I will stop for today…

#46 TnT on 04.21.14 at 8:51 pm

#19 shane

Port Perry
I have been following that market for over 10 years. I use to live in Stouffville and when Stouffville RE got hot a lot of the sellers were relocating to Uxbridge and Port Perry.

When looking at Port Perry I use to cross reference that with Uxbridge and Stouffville.

Stouffville is heavily affected by the GTA prices, Uxbridge less and Port Perry last.

I have seen prices flat line in Port Perry starting last summer and have seen a few deals on the desirable Cochrane street (if you are in to large Victorian estate homes). It is definitely far enough from the housing bubble effect going on in the GTA.

The town is the nicest in the area and Art, Music and other cultural venues are great for a small rural town. Public schools are great; High School is about as good as it gets for the region. Lake Scugog is befitting of it name, being very weedy and all but it is so nice in the summer and very accessible.

Pros: Very quaint, self-sufficient town, affordable big properties, lake access, good hospital, prettier than Uxbridge and Stouffville. Lots of local produce, clean air and good living. It is close enough to GTA for employment too (407 extending to Brooklyn which is a straight run south of Port Perry).

Cons: New Smart Center at edge of town and I would consider it too far for any downtown commute.

Cheers!

#47 Jose on 04.21.14 at 9:00 pm

This weekend, I saw a Porsche 911 in Markham with the plate reading “MKOFFER” and an S Class in Toronto today with the plate reading something similar, it slips my mind.

#48 Marco Polo on 04.21.14 at 9:00 pm

Echoing the comments of another poster yesterday, there’s stil some question over where this could end up.

I’m concerned the government would likely take ‘steps’ to loosen lending in any downturn.

These could include but not be limited to, a flat-rate low deposit ‘fee’ of say, $2000 in place of a downpayment. Buying a house the way we buy a Kia.

The other elephant in the room that noone has discussed, is the chance, however remote, of a desparate government bringing in tax-deductible interest for mortgages, as the US has. This could take the form of some complicated TFSA/RRSP tax deductible mortgage scheme.

Just some thoughts. Too many are used to the taste of this housing kool-aid.

Neither will happen. — Garth

#49 1st Timer on 04.21.14 at 9:00 pm

Houses are overpriced relative to incomes. People keep on buying due to cheap rates and easy credit.

I’m divorced and have been looking to buy post-divorce since 2010. Prices were crazy then, even crazier now. Feels like a losing battle. I’m not hoping for a crash because that might entail job losses and other pains, but I think the government will just inflate everything to proportion, very slowly raise interest rates to slow things down, and that leaves myself and many others feeling very foolish for not buying earlier. The diversified portfolio is doing well btw, but doesn’t have the same returns due to leverage. I’m referring to the M5T downtown which is insane right now.

#50 Ret on 04.21.14 at 9:01 pm

Hamilton and Burlington have so much in common. Hamiltonians should be outraged!

#51 Wiggleroom on 04.21.14 at 9:05 pm

What Daisy Mae said. #42.

Garth, I’m impressed at your consistency and resolve in keeping up this blog, and your message, especially when surrounded by idiots and crazy people. I’m not sure how you do it!

#52 randman on 04.21.14 at 9:06 pm

Dan #39

It’s Mandarin ..not mandarine

I already speak it but you need some English lessons..

#53 Notta Sheeple on 04.21.14 at 9:11 pm

“…..but more because bankers are driving down standards……”
=========================

Going out on a limb here, but I’m guessing you can’t drive down that which didn’t exist in the first place.

Welcome to 2008 (v2.0)

#54 TnT on 04.21.14 at 9:13 pm

Real estate is unaffordable most places, and a complete mess in Van, not because the Chinese or aliens are driving up prices, but more because bankers are driving down standards. – Garth

The fact that the standards have to be lowered for Canadians who earn their wages in Canada shows how huge the impact of foreign buyers actually have on this market….

That made entirely no sense. — Garth

#55 Babblemaster on 04.21.14 at 9:15 pm

“Real estate is unaffordable most places, and a complete mess in Van, not because the Chinese or aliens are driving up prices, but more because bankers are driving down standards. By lowering the bar for a real estate purchase, and encouraging dollops of new debt, the enablers are helping to inflate prices.” – Garth

——————————————————

Yes, but this is only possible because the Ottawa is allowing/encouraging it.

#56 Notta Sheeple on 04.21.14 at 9:15 pm

#18 World According To Garth on 04.21.14 at 7:52 pm
DELETED

#23 World According To Garth on 04.21.14 at 8:07 pm
DELETED

#37 World According To Garth on 04.21.14 at 8:27 pm
DELETED
=========================

How’s that ‘definition of insanity’ go again?

Repeating the same thing over and over, expecting a different outcome?

#57 Ontario's Left Coast on 04.21.14 at 9:15 pm

#27 Smokey – …a good Google search is all that’s required…

I’d like to see how that goes over when applying for anything above Tim Hortons. “What’s the highest level of education you’ve completed?”
“Actually, nothing after Grade 12, but I’m really handy on Google!” — “NEXT!”
Worst advice ever, bro. It’s called accreditation, dude (a big word, I know, but look into it). And you’ll forgive me for being satisfied with my obedience certificate – it’s kept me well over six figures-plus for a long time in addition to great benefits and an awesome DB pension. Wow, that darned educational complex really sucks!

#58 Free Beer Tomorrow on 04.21.14 at 9:16 pm

#3 beauty eh! on 04.21.14 at 7:08 pm
WTF is 139.1????

Another Bit-coin measure!
———————————————–

Cept its 500 not 139 :-)

#59 BG on 04.21.14 at 9:20 pm

With such irresponsible behaviors, and no regulation, how could this end with a *just* a slow correction?

#60 Notta Sheeple on 04.21.14 at 9:20 pm

Wow. Pinch me.

After months of witnessing the submissive Globe and Mail presstitute itself to regurgitating deceitful, self-serving, pump and dump, ‘press releases’ from the various REAL estate pimps across the country, it’s refreshing to see some initiative on the Globe’s part, and actually publish some actual investigative journalism regarding the current housing market gasbag.

Hell, if this trend continues, I might even pay for a Globe subscription.

The ‘Housing Price Correction Calculator’ is pretty lame, but the charts are rather illuminating…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/give-yourself-a-real-estate-reality-check/article18083289/

#61 I_AM_HAM on 04.21.14 at 9:23 pm

No Garth! Ordinary folks in Van are buying cause they need a place to live. It’s the slimy realturds and the banks that are capitalizing on HAM and our fascist government who are ringing their hands. OCCUPY! that will need to happen one day.

#62 baddog on 04.21.14 at 9:24 pm

Re #22
Get a hobby. You are obsessed. Prices in Van are high because people there pay them. Greater fools. — Garth

If we all go and get hobbies Garth you won’t have anyone left to read your blog.

I’m your hobby? You’re creeping me out. — Garth

#63 VT on 04.21.14 at 9:26 pm

#30 dan on 04.21.14 at 8:14 pm

well, you wanna make money buy Pembina but buy newalta too as a hedge. good Canadian companies. I bought Pembina at 18 and newalta at 5 and look at them today…

—————————-

I hear you. I stuffed my TFSA with Paramount Resources a few months ago at $38 and it’s now flirting with $60. Even though the RSI is screaming overbought, it just keeps going up.

Me thinks the Riddells know what they’re doing on this one.

#64 gladiator on 04.21.14 at 9:27 pm

A huge honking SUV roams the streets of Toronto with a license plate saying 4ASALE. Saw it myself.
Probably an RE “professional”.

#65 sciencemonkey on 04.21.14 at 9:33 pm

Garth, on the topic of HAM. It is possible that Van prices are insane due to a combination of stupid Canadians gorging on credit AND lots of HAM. The existence of one doesn’t categorically make the other have no effect. It’s probably synergistic!

—–

Canadians are reacting to immigrants who don’t want to integrate and become Canadian, but rather simply use this country. Or am I making an incorrect assumption that immigrants should integrate and take up the social mores of their new country? Perhaps it is a tad hypocritical, considering what the first white immigrants did to the natives…

I experienced this problem a great deal in my graduate school lab. Many Chinese students, despite polite requests from colleagues and orders from the prof, spoke Chinese in the lab, right in front of people who don’t understand the language, day in and day out. I understand that English is more difficult, but they came here to a country of English and French, so they have a responsibility to follow the ways of this country. Simply put, Canadian opportunities should require effort to be Canadian. I digress; speaking a language some of your coworkers don’t is hugely rude, as well as dangerous in a lab environment (where your colleagues will have less information about what you are doing). A colleague of mine said that English is the language of questions, when they decided they needed your help with something.

I think part of the problem is the high rate of immigration. I don’t blame people for wanting to do what comes naturally and comfortably to them, whether it’s speaking their native tongue, or (to cherry pick an admittedly nasty example) kill their teenage daughters who don’t cover their bodies in a sheet. If you’ve got one new immigrant family on a street of WASPs, that family will pick up English and WASPy ways simply because that is who they will be interacting with. When you import half your science monkeys straight from mainland China, you have a lab divided between Mandarin speakers and everyone else (Canadians, Iranians, French, Spanish, German, etc.).

#66 Ralph Cramdown on 04.21.14 at 9:34 pm

#39 dan — “you know mandarine you have a job. this is called the future and is actually here. Forget English. It is a language of paupers and peasants.”

Yeah, thirty years ago it was Japanese. I wonder what language your kids will be telling my kids — in english — to teach their kids.

#67 Smoking Man on 04.21.14 at 9:39 pm

Googled it……
……
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iceberg_Theory

The Iceberg Theory (also known as the “theory of omission”) is the
writing style of American writer
Ernest Hemingway
……………

So then I Google, Hemingway..

This chic most definitely f-n with me…..

#68 bobbo on 04.21.14 at 9:40 pm

please someone, Smoking Man needs his own blog and audience so he can babble

#69 sciencemonkey on 04.21.14 at 9:45 pm

On the topic of purchasing a car based on the monthly, I don’t think it’s actually that big a deal…

I will provide my own numbers as an example. I am 30, had a license forever, took the driver’s ed course back in the day, no accidents other than a no-fault a while ago when some moron rear ended me while I was stopped at a red light. Last year I bought an automatic Honda Fit LX for $21725 (if I remember right) cash. If everything goes right, I will have this car for 15 years, for a yearly cost of ~$1500.

I live in this terrible city of Toronto (North York), where by far the cheapest auto insurance is with TD Meloche Monnex (with UofT grad discount), which comes to $233 a month. That is $2800 a year. Luckily it only went up 3% from last year (ugh). I drive 40 km round trip to work, and overall my mileage app is telling me I spend a little under $1600 a year in gas. Let’s say I spend $600 yearly on maintenance costs (oil changes, new tires, undercoating, etc.). Thus yearly costs total $5000 a year.

Compare the fixed car cost of $1500 to the yearly costs of $5000. It’s only 23% of the total $6500. Why not finance the car itself? Who cares if it’s a little more expensive to finance it?

What really kills me is the insurance! It makes up 43% of the entire cost of car ownership for me; I know I’m just 30, living on a street of fellow Jews (who all have dented minivans), but this usury kills me!

#70 Mean Gene on 04.21.14 at 9:51 pm

#39 Dan:

The default language used for Air Traffic control world wide is English.

#71 Smoking Man on 04.21.14 at 9:51 pm

#61 bobbo on 04.21.14 at 9:40 pm

Garth has millions of fans that come for his bable, very few post.

I have 27 fans that come here for my bable.. How many do you
have?

So long as I have even just one I’m here…

Is bobbo the best reach you have for a stage name… Your creativity, impressive…

#72 Nemesis on 04.21.14 at 10:03 pm

#HistoryLessons #TheMiracleMile #RogerBannister #LittleRiverBand #It’sALongWayThere [FromEmpireStadiumToDortmund] #TheQuantumMultiverseOfPoeticJustice

DateLineVancouver: Circa 1980.07.05 [on the DeLorean’s FluxCapacitorDisplay]

It was EmpireStadium.

Previously home to RogerBannister’s MiracleMile… and TheBeatles/AmongOtherNotorities.

But on that day… it was TheVeryLast of the LML’s OutdoorSpectaculars.

Sound&Light courtesy of SuperTramp [NoShit]…

Seriously, never mind HastingsPark – you could have easily heard/felt it in the WestEnd… .

Alas. For now… Dortmund will have to stand in.

Still, as ParablesApropos go, it don’t get much deeper, SaltyDogz; enjoy:

http://youtu.be/hF1GRvfr9NA

[NoteToGT: Just between the two of us… and given that – theoretically – anything is possible in the ParallelQuantumMultiVerse… I sometimes console myself with the singularly wicked thought that a certain failed politico’s Doppelgänger is doomed to spend an eternity in whatever passes for the local Ramada Inn’s ‘TikiLounge’. A VeritablePianist’sPurgatory as it were… Condemned, perpetually, to TickleTheIvories… in a TrulyPunishing and PointlessSisypheanEndeavour. All in a place where the TipJar never fills… and the evenings always end… with BedBugs in the UltraSubPar HiredHelpLodgings. Ideally, overlooking a ParkinLot dimly lit by the worst sort of MercuryVapour StreetLighting… Warning, SaltyDogz – what follows is not for the FaintOfHeart… and definitely not for MusicLovers – but it is funny/if you like your humour dark, that is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJG8wQGqlzk ]

#73 Millenial on 04.21.14 at 10:04 pm

#68 bobbo
please someone, Smoking Man needs his own blog and audience so he can babble

*******************************************

yeah, Smoking Man, this is garth’s blog not yours. if you don’t have something to say relevant to garth’s post then GTFO. I’m tired of having to skip over your senseless ramblings.

#74 45north on 04.21.14 at 10:10 pm

So far, nobody is listening much. That includes the new Minister of Finance, Joe Oliver.

which is an affront to my sense of what the Minister of Finance should be doing. Yet I believe that Garth’s efforts are crucial. It is a temptation to be so outraged as to give up. Our efforts right now are crucial. Don’t make it easy for him to not listen.

Cici : As far as I know, the Americans have always had access to real home sale prices, and would never have allowed themselves to be fooled by a frankenumber.

good point

Ontario Guy : If you bought life insurance or auto insurance like that you would not be paid for a claim

please do not use my name other than “Ontario Guy” These people are far too powerful.

well Garth if Stephen Harper needs me for the Board at CMHC please forward my e-mail address

#75 Vancouver RE agent on 04.21.14 at 10:16 pm

Agreed on bank loosey loose standards. But why not!?!?! Profits are privatized and losses are socialized. All looses are guaranteed to be reimbursed by the government so lender cant loose. Destructive force of the government is to blame not the bans. Banks simply play the cards dealt to them by the government (in the name of helping homeowners of course)

Also what Garth didn’t mention is that many/most of the people (especially hipsters) once in a new 800K house with $500 (five hundred) real downpayment take 200-300K equity loans. Most ppl I sold RE to did just that to pay the very same mortgage this HELL-OK loan is supposed to be colladerized off.

#76 Porsche on 04.21.14 at 10:22 pm

#73

I don’t even read the first word of his babble.

Soon as I see Smoking Man the forefinger goes down and the curser flies right on through.

#77 bread and wine on 04.21.14 at 10:36 pm

How many people are actually using these ‘services’ from banks? Are people lining up? Do you have any statistics?

#78 Doug in London on 04.21.14 at 10:38 pm

@Mean Gene, post #9:
You’re not the only one. While a lot of locals here in the east complained about the cold winter weather I was in Australia for 6 weeks, including 1 week in tropical northern Queensland and 2 weeks in the hot, sunny Outback. I may have even seen you there, not likely but possible. Yes, it IS great being a renter!

#79 gfrankel on 04.21.14 at 10:44 pm

Is there any chance of getting some highly levered HAM to buy the godawful Maple Leafs instead of real estate. They could rename the team the Toronto Ham Leafs…..this is not without precedent as there is a baseball team in Japan called the Nippon Ham Fighters….

#80 ozy - Garth, you are amazing! on 04.21.14 at 10:52 pm

Garth, you are amazing! You take the short, easy route of complaining about the easy credit, which is the essence of a DEBT based system.

I beg you for a essay on FRACTIONAL RESERVE, and the decision people face, either play with the herd (safe until a point) or be contrarian (good only in the end, but disastrous if always playing against the system)

Your whole blog idea should resume to this: we all know, inflation caused by pumping dollars out of thin air (fractional debt based system) makes lenders putridly rich as they collect interest on money they never HAD….so smart, savvy citizens decided to jump on board and caused housing to increase instead of 5% yearly (normal, in a such a loose monetary system) to 10% – therefore taking appreciation from the future.

The decision to crash the smart savvy investors/speculators – belongs to the heads of the economic oligarchy – so it’s not economics that will dictate….the trend can be bullish for another 4 years in TO. But yes, there will be a correction. I estimate in 2017 a drop of 20%, after another 10-15% gain in 2015 and flattening in 2016.

comments welcome

#81 gfrankel on 04.21.14 at 10:53 pm

Hey my bad….after posting I see that there is in fact a Maple Leaf Ham…..so better to use that name…..pay some royalties and have the teams logo changed to a package of bacon on the jerseys…the sweaters could also be hung before game time in a charcoal smoker….thereby subliminally creating desire with opposition players and spectators for the ham and driving sales through the roof…who says pigs can’t fly?

#82 Scalgary on 04.21.14 at 10:54 pm

Wow…Canadian banks are so prudent in issuing mortgage loans!

#83 Joe Calgary on 04.21.14 at 10:55 pm

to #48 Marco Polo

Another obvious one everyone here is ignoring is raising the amortization periods back up to 30, 35 or even 40 years again. I agree, too many are used to the taste of this kook-aid..

#84 gigi on 04.21.14 at 10:59 pm

I smell fear tonight!
Victoria down
Halifax down
Ottawa down
Montreal down

Next!

#85 ozy - Let the Smoking Man talk - learn on 04.21.14 at 11:03 pm

To all detractors, let the Smoking Man talk – learn to think differently – or you’ll be in this post-colonial system, with decisions being pushed from top, down, your throats – for eternity!!!

Keep up the good work, mavericks of Ontario! He is so right on the school system, life should be simpler and focused on essentials, this is: LIVE FOR WHAT MAKES YOU HAPPY – YOU, NOT YOUR WIFE, KIDS, MOTHER IN LAW…

Be grateful, every morning for the light of the sun, and for having eyes to see it. Be grateful to universal god’s system (lowercase) for having a life. Living with joy -is the WHOLE purpose of life, and discovering this, takes many decades to some. Chasing human-values like money, social status, professional excellence, family, women, sets you on a collision course. Stop or you’ll hit a wall. We all hear of coworkers dying at 50-60 y old while working the previous day for the corporate world – and skipping lunch, and take all stupid challenges from having to deal with incompetence of fellow human beings incl. management – to their demise.

Read more of smoking man quotes…collect and review them. It will help you solidify your own independent thinking system. It’s good to see how others think.

Salute tutti

#86 Free Beer Tomorrow on 04.21.14 at 11:11 pm

The fact that the standards have to be lowered for Canadians who earn their wages in Canada shows how huge the impact of foreign buyers actually have on this market….

That made entirely no sense. — Garth
————————————————————-

I think he means that because offshore buyers don’t pay taxes and have MORE money than domestic buyers, domestic buyers have to have the standards lowered (2.99% etc) in order to afford a house that the foreign buyers have no problem buying because they don’t pay taxes.

Sound right?

And there is Free Beer Tomorrow !!

#87 devore on 04.21.14 at 11:14 pm

Stop and ask WHY bankers are now able to lower that bar. Why are they now heedless of risk…?

What risk? On 100% government backed mortgages?

#88 Free Beer Tomorrow on 04.21.14 at 11:16 pm

Check out the tiny house in TO in the list of million dollar houses….

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/04/18/house-prices-toronto_n_5174437.html?just_reloaded=1#slide=more261600

#89 devore on 04.21.14 at 11:18 pm

Learn mandarine like Australian kids, they understood long ago it is important. you know mandarine you have a job. this is called the future and is actually here. Forget English. It is a language of paupers and peasants.

Sorry, already learned Japanese.

#90 Go Habs Go on 04.21.14 at 11:19 pm

Apologies if this point has been brought up already, but I don’t read all the comments each night.

I live in Vancouver, and it is common and easy to blame foreigners for driving up the price of real estate, even though there is no proof of this. Yet, pretty much weekly, I read of Canadians moving to Costa Rica, Ecuador (last months MoneySense), Mexico, Nicaragua, etc after selling their homes in Canada. They write about how cheap it is to buy a house down there, how cheap groceries, etc. are, how good the weather is, etc.

It seems to me this is a huge double-standard. If we are to go to poor countries and buy real estate (and drive up prices), why should foreigners be allowed to buy real estate in Canada? I think it could be argued that Canadians are in a better position to weather the storm of foreigners coming here than poor people of Ecuador, Costa Rica, Mexico, etc. are to us going down there.

We either stop buying property in poorer countries (or other countries at all!) or we live in a free world where we allow people to come here and we are allowed to buy property abroad.

#91 Son of Ponzi on 04.21.14 at 11:19 pm

#66 Ralph Cramdown on 04.21.14 at 9:34 pm
#39 dan — “you know mandarine you have a job. this is called the future and is actually here. Forget English. It is a language of paupers and peasants.”
Yeah, thirty years ago it was Japanese. I wonder what language your kids will be telling my kids — in english — to teach their kids.
———
Tired of this old cliche.
Don’t remember thousands of
Japanese moving to the
Lower Mainland.

.

#92 Ottawwa guy on 04.21.14 at 11:23 pm

I come for the Garth and STAY for SM

He has his own blog

#93 meslippery on 04.21.14 at 11:29 pm

So I went to the dentist a day ago she did a really good
job only cost $655.00 for three fillings took one hour.
I know their is overhead and all. No insurance.
I guess the airhead princess thinks thats OK.
So long as we all work for peanuts.

#94 SCIBADUBADEBUMBADO on 04.21.14 at 11:31 pm

#22 Craig on 04.21.14 at 8:07 pm
Last year I spoke with a friend who is a CPA for one of the big 4 accounting firms. I told him there was anecdotal evidence that a lot of illegally obtained money was inflowing from China. Particularly from mid-level Bureaucrats who are well documented in China as having expropriated land from peasants and sold the land immediately for factory and property development.
My friend said he was going to check on it with some of the partners who would know.
A few weeks later he called me to say that my suspicions are totally correct. It is a huge part of their business.
Of course no one is going to give any specific details but it is just another obvious reason why Vancouver and Toronto are fast becoming the corruption laundering capitals of the world.
This does impact us even though Garth has some agenda against saying this.
I personally shouldn’t be tagged a racist as my wife is Oriental and I have lived 12 years of my life in Asia. I love the people and the culture there. I just hate the corruption. Especially when it is impacting my children’s ability to purchase a home.
You really have to live in Vancouver to understand how ugly real estate is here.
Foreign Hot Money should be heavily taxed. Not foreigners who LIVE here.
One Blogger commented recently that a worse scenario would be that there were no buyers for our homes and liquidity would tank. Well then house prices would go down and a local who lives here would then actually be able to purchase a home like in San Antonio where homes are $175k for the same home that is 950k here. That’s a good thing!
People in Vancouver don’t even have children any more because of housing prices. If that isn’t where housing prices is impacting lives then what is?

“Other than Surrey, every school district has declining enrollment right now because of demographics. The city tells us we’ve got more people moving into Vancouver, but fewer have families,” he said. “The projection is that five years out we will be seeing our schools filling up again, unless the housing crisis even gets worse and they decide to move out.”

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/High+cost+housing+driving+students+Vancouver+School+District/8550740/story.html

#95 Panhead on 04.21.14 at 11:40 pm

Best plate I ever saw was on the tail end of an early 60’s corvette convertible driven by a blonde bombshell … read …WASHIS

#96 atadconfused on 04.21.14 at 11:47 pm

just to clarify:

1. the provinces require high ratio mortgages issued by credit unions to be insured.
2 . the federal government does not allow CMHC or the private insurers to insure a loan with less than 5% down (recognizing the issue of source of funds exists).
1+2 = credit unions cannot circumvent the down payment requirements (although in effect, things like cash back mean everyone can pretty much get around it)
3. OSFI has the power to do more than just urge regulated mortgage insurers to follow a guideline like B21 – if adopted, genworth and canada guarantee will have to comply with B21. CMHC is not automatically affected.

#97 Jackofall on 04.21.14 at 11:48 pm

omg Garth! You used the ‘R” word! Didn’t we discuss this? I hope you have your fleet of ninja lawyers ready.

#98 Ontario's Left Coast on 04.21.14 at 11:55 pm

#73 – SM – I don’t even read the first word of his babble.

You mean you don’t revel in the idiotic ramblings about how wonderful his life is and how superior he is to mere mortals? I can’t imagine how I’d make it through the day without knowing the intimate details of his moronic conversation with his wife during their car ride. Go start your own blog SM and leave this one to the adults.

#99 Steve French on 04.22.14 at 12:23 am

“Woe to those who devise wickedness and work evil on their beds! When the morning dawns, they perform it, because it is in the power of their hand.

They covet fields and seize them, and houses, and take them away; they oppress a man and his house, a man and his inheritance.

Therefore thus says the Lord: behold, against this family I am devising disaster, from which you cannot remove your necks, and you shall not walk haughtily, for it will be a time of disaster.

In that day they shall take up a taunt song against you and moan bitterly, and say, “We are utterly ruined; he changes the portion of my people; how he removes it from me!

To an apostate he allots our fields.”

Therefore you will have none to cast the line by lot in the assembly of the Lord.”

Micah 2:1-3:12

#100 jane24 on 04.22.14 at 12:29 am

Morning guys

The media here in England have just noticed that London (the real one) is starting to fill with empty condo buildings owned by the mainland Chinese!! Now where have I read this before!! Unfortunately this coincides with an incredible run-up of London RE values as global money moves into a safe haven. The actual English such as my daughter and most of her 30ish professional friends are moving out as they can’t compete with the RE prices. But at least here kids pick up and leave rather than drinking the koolaid. Canadian kids just seem to stick in one place and suck it up.

Add this to the professional Eastern EU beggars that are moving in and London is becoming a foreign and different city at an incredible place which is too fast and upsetting for some. We live in a global context now.

By the way squatting is illegal now in the UK and has been for several years.

WE are all waiting to see how the anti-EU political party – UKIP does in the EU elections next month. Rather well I suspect as they have the majority of the lawn signage around here.

#101 Andrew Woburn on 04.22.14 at 12:32 am

66 Ralph Cramdown on 04.21.14 at 9:34 pm
Yeah, thirty years ago it was Japanese. I wonder what language your kids will be telling my kids — in english — to teach their kids.
=============================

Fifty years ago we were all advised to learn Russian as the USSR was going to become a dominant player in the world economy. Nikita Kruschov pounded his shoe on the table and told us the USSR was going to crush us. Many of us were unduly impressed.

While I wish the Chinese people well, the notion they are soon going to overwhelm Western economies by building empty apartments with borrowed money is a bit fanciful.

Based on the way the Mexicans are moving up at home and in the US, maybe the next “must have” language will be Spanish.

#102 end CHMC on 04.22.14 at 12:35 am

Garth can you start a petition to end CHMC? Without CHMC prices would crash 50-60% overnight. Let the banks lend to deadbeats. Why should Canadians taxpayers back stop sub-prime mortgages? We have $200k in savings and competing with those who don’t even have 5% down. Why should sub-prime borrowers get the same rate as me? Garth expose the government and let’s get a petition out ASAP.

#103 Andrew Woburn on 04.22.14 at 12:38 am

12 Rules of Goldbuggery

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/04/the-10-rules-of-goldbuggery/

#104 Keith on 04.22.14 at 12:38 am

For fun, I googled “average mortgage in Vancouver.” The site provided listed average income as 69,000, average mortgage 289,000. So, people are buying properties averaging 1,200,000 with these incomes and these mortgages and 99 percent financing. No evidence of offshore money here.

#105 Humpty Dumty on 04.22.14 at 12:49 am

This one will keep you rolling in the aisles…

“The Almighty is nudging me.”

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2014/04/14/Obama-hosts-Easter-Prayer-Breakfast-chooses-openly-gay-bishop-to-lead-prayer/4661397498890/

#106 Jason on 04.22.14 at 12:50 am

Vancouver RE agent is right. The banks are lending to every marginal borrower. I would even guess majority are actually sub-prime borrowers. The government is distorting the market with CHMC. The socialist conservatives under Harper is a threat to Canada. If Harper was a true conservative he would allow the free markets to set rates and lend to credit worthy people. The banks don’t care since socialist harper is allowing all the risk to be on Canadian taxpayers.

#107 AAA Steak on 04.22.14 at 1:06 am

Let me try to explain Vancouver RE in a way everyone will understand.

Vancouver West and West Vancouver are AAA Steak. HAM will pay any price for prime steak. They can afford it and are willing to buy any piece of steak they can get their hands on.

This increase in the value of steak automatically increases the value of hamburger (Burnaby), pork (Richmond) and even sausages (Surrey).

So everyone in Vancouver is forced to pay more for their meat.

#108 MathProf on 04.22.14 at 1:11 am

So if high prices in Vancouver are due to locals buying $2 Million dollar houses due to lax bank standards and 2.5% down payments, then…

The monthly $10,000 mortgage payment means, based on CMHC approval standards, that the average income is well above $350,000.

What’s up with that? Math doesn’t add up!

#109 takla on 04.22.14 at 1:24 am

re #62 garth”im your hobby ,your creeping me out”I think a lot of Canadians have come to this blog as a result of getting burned on realestate already.Sure the larger core cities have been somewhat immune but suburbs /outskirt areas have seen price drops and stagnation the last 1-2 yrs.I rebuild 50-60 yr old audio tube amps for my hobby,but do find time to linger nightly here.
funny When I used to carry a home mortgage I had little to no time for a hobby,cash strapped working 5-6 days a week and raiseing a family will do that to you and my morgages were never at the levels we see today.
Have people lost their minds signing away thiers lives for a mortgage in the multible 100’s of thousands??
My first mortgage carried an interest rate of 19 % in 1984 on a 80,000 purchase……IF those rates ever come back there would be a blood -bath!

#110 Spaccone on 04.22.14 at 1:46 am

You name it, there is a racket that Canadians are getting bent over for, telecoms/communications, real estate/home builders/home maintenance, police, utilities, retail with 1/5th the selection and across the board markup vs the US, high-priced, mediocre sports industry, alcohol (Ontario)… to Americans we must look like a population that likes punishment and celebrates mediocrity.

#111 mark on 04.22.14 at 2:56 am

You know what comes next?

CREA starts their own online news portal. Employs their own journalists, writes their own news stories, does features on successful buying, shoots more video content blah blah blah…

Eventually this stuff will be word for word sitting in your local newspaper before it dies.

#112 Freedom First on 04.22.14 at 3:35 am

I find it interesting that after every RE market crash throughout history when prices do hit the absolute bottom and the greater fools have been financially exterminated is when the wise wealthy investors step in and buy 5-10-50-100 properties at a time. No exception.

#113 juno on 04.22.14 at 3:51 am

#26 Ralph Cramdown on 04.21.14 at 8:10 pm

Here’s his plate:
http://www.pl8s.org/wy-rent-bc/

Here’s his recent sales:
http://www.mmcondo.com/RecentSales.php

Sold $3.6m of real estate in the last 12 months. If he’s not on a generous split with his broker, I hope his mom’s a good cook.
=======================

Notice his last sold was on Feb 26. He was averaging a sale every several weeks. It looks like he’s got a two month dry spell. Nice to know I’m sure after several more months the sales date will disappear from his site

#114 Tony on 04.22.14 at 3:56 am

#61 I_AM_HAM on 04.21.14 at 9:23 pm

The ordinary folks will get a place to live alright… on the street when the bank forecloses on them. Only a person with a strong dislike for money would be buying a home in Vancouver today.

#115 World Traveller on 04.22.14 at 4:13 am

#73 Millenial on 04.21.14 at 10:04 pm
#68 bobbo
please someone, Smoking Man needs his own blog and audience so he can babble

***

The sad thing is that he has his own blog already, but no one reads it, so he piggybacks on GF.

#116 Buy? Curious? on 04.22.14 at 4:52 am

Think of today’s picture for a second. Here’s a guy that is so sure of that his thinking correct, that he personalise his licence plate of his beemer. Why would advertise to everyone around you that you are….Sassy? I own a house, I even comment on how it’s better to own a house than to rent, smuggly and semi-annyomusly (only on this pathethic blog and to my kids as a way of keeping them the f**k away from university) but I would never do that thing.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/21/students-i-lied-to-you-desperation-graduate-premium

Rob Ford 2014. He cares about voters and haters.

#117 Nemesis on 04.22.14 at 5:04 am

#Billie. #GettingSomeFun?

http://youtu.be/Mwq7z-ihSRI

#118 Buy? Curious? on 04.22.14 at 5:19 am

Sorry, wrong link. I normally never post a link that is serious. This is the link regarding the picture.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4L8QMNJyiU

And all realturds advertising should be mocked. Think of it as practice when dealing with organised religions.

#119 Nemesis on 04.22.14 at 5:28 am

#KPAX. #RadioHead. #NoSurprises

http://youtu.be/Io8S5_5Pq90

#ItAllEndsWell. #Really

http://youtu.be/8geF5T666Mc

#See? #ToldYaSo

#120 maxx on 04.22.14 at 7:25 am

“Your house is worth 139.3? You’re confused? Then you need a REALTOR®.”

Society has evolved such a deep and varied culture of false “needs”. Beyond basics, it’s amazing how few our “needs” really are. For each to decide, however a major red flag should pop up whenever anyone, absolutely anyone says that you “need” something. Most “needs” are marketing mirage and usually a total waste of hard-earned, after tax money.

As for predigested stats proffered in canned remark format? Just another seasonal round of marketing bs…..yawn…..

…..so-called “information” that is as useless as highly processed, biologically unrecognizable, plastic junk food…..and potentially just as unhealthy for your financial well-being.

#121 maxx on 04.22.14 at 7:36 am

#33 Smoking Man on 04.21.14 at 8:24 pm

“Continued……

After 15 to 20 years of learning to please the master and like a dog, rewarded with A’s who is given a milk bone for good behaviour, sit dog, fetch dog… Run dog….
Woof, Woof…..”

LOL! Cut it out Smoke! I’m trying to eat breakfast!

#122 Herb on 04.22.14 at 7:59 am

Smoking Man does have his own blog. It’s just that he loves the exposure and three fans he has here.

#123 Stickler on 04.22.14 at 8:05 am

@ #181 Old Man on 04.21.14 at 5:57 pm

#176 Stickler – Mr. David Black has a proposal on the table for an oil refinery in BC. The modest cost will be $26 billion.

————————

The cost can vary widely, yes. There are many proposals from 3 billion to 10 billion and everything in between too…and much more as you found.

The cost is one thing, the value is the other.

#124 2CntsCdn on 04.22.14 at 8:08 am

#112 Freedom First
“Real investors buy at the bottom.”
Exactly true. The real wealthy (not the family with a million dollar house juggling a $600K mtg, 2 BMW leases, a maxed out HELOC, and 4 maxed out credit cards) ….. just wait quietly in the wings. And while they wait their “liquid money” is making 7 – 10% with their investment guy (at the lowest tax rate). When it makes sense (and the world is in panic) …. they jump back in. Because they know from experience that the best time to buy RE (or stocks) is when it appears to be the worst time to buy them.

#125 2CntsCdn on 04.22.14 at 8:46 am

And another thing!
About ultra cheap mtg rates and cheater home ownership programs. The Canadian RE cartel (CREA, banks, mortgage brokers, developers) are in a desperate mission now to keep the illusion going that Canadian RE NEVER goes down. And they’ll do whatever they have to to hold prices up. Because they know the consequences when it all stops … and waiting makes more sense than jumping in. A sales mans worst reply “we’ll think about it and get back to you”.

And why wouldn’t you give ultra cheap rates and fudge what ever you need to fudge to get people into a dwelling. Banks (mortgage lenders) can lock people into 20-30+ years of interest payments (and various penalties and extra fee’s) with the Gov’t covering the risk. It’s a no brainer. And there is an eager customer searching far and wide to pick which lender he will get in dept/bed with …. all for bricks, mortar and granite … and fulfilling what we’ve been programmed to do. The customer is practically begging the lender to take 80% of his net pay cheque for the next 30 years. Who wouldn’t do what ever you have to do or say to lock that fool in. It’s easy business. And it’s all legal and government backed.

And besides …. have you met some of the RE cartel people? What could they do for a living (and make half the money they make) if they weren’t doing this? We couldn’t build enough McDonalds. Maybe Insurance sales ….. but don’t get me started on that industry … sheesh!

#126 Smoke This on 04.22.14 at 8:50 am

#27 Smoking Man on 04.21.14 at 8:11 pm

Why do virgins buy Toronto real estate….. At these insane prices

………………………………………………………………………….

Hey Smokey, didn’t you purchase a home down in Longbranch. Prices have been insane in this city for the last ten years. So virgin why did you buy? And don’t say I just moved here cause you have already told us you’ve been there for some years now?
So babble on and explain!

Signed,
Ex Virgin.

#127 Sheane Wallace on 04.22.14 at 9:12 am

# 103 Andrew Woburn

12 Rules of Goldbuggery
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/04/the-10-rules-of-goldbuggery/
………………………..

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

Mahatma Gandhi

Many don’t ridicule oil but gold.
I wonder WHY?

#128 Laura on 04.22.14 at 9:40 am

The one’s who put 5% down are mainly condo buyers. You won’t see much of that in the SFH segment. The marginal buyers are few and far between.

The evidence lies in the amount of mortgage that could be approved base on income and downpayment. You don’t put 5% down on a 900K house with 70k income. It’s impossible.

Canadians have way more equity built up therefore it is not even remotely comparable to the US when they had the crash.

Lastly, to see any meaningful correction there needs to be a meaningful hike in interest rate. Very highly unlikely when you can still get 5 year fix at 2.99%. Will you see 6% upon mortgage renewal? Of course not. If price didn’t correct in a major way in 2007-09 during GFC, the probability of that happening in the future is highly unlikely in the next 10-15 years. Meanwhile RE continues to appreciate overall at inflation or more in major cities.

I am sure this is what you tell your clients. Will mortgages be 6% by 2019? You bet. — Garth

#129 WhiteKat on 04.22.14 at 9:59 am

Hamilton didn’t have the HPI , but that didn’t stop my husband and I from buying our first house there in 1989 for 170,000, with 10% down and a 12% mortgage. We were young and horny, and should have waited….sigh….or jumped in earlier…sigh again.

We sold that house 13 years later for 215,000 when my husband lost his job and we relocated to Brantford, and bought a house there.

It is very difficult to ‘catch up’ to your peers when you buy in a bubble. Friends of ours who bought 5 or 6 years earlier (who pressured us to buy then …I wish we’d listened) are much further ahead now (house asset wise that is) for having bought before the bubble peaked in 1989.

Two years ago, my husband’s work place in Brantford shut down(a manufacturing company which moved operations to the US – naturally), and we find ourselves in Ottawa with our ‘house money’ sitting in the bank while we sit on the sidelines.

There’s no way will I buy in another bubble plus housing is much more expensive here compared to Brantford. Plus we love the flexibility of renting, and not spending every weekend on home ‘improvements’.

However I don’t know how long I can hide out from FATCA, so we might end up buying sooner than we would like. Today, I am off to another bank to make another 45K deposit (FATCA reporting kicks in at 50K). I’m starting to feel like a squirrel hiding nuts all over the place.

#130 airhead princess on 04.22.14 at 10:02 am

“So I went to the dentist a day ago she did a really good
job only cost $655.00 for three fillings took one hour.
I know their is overhead and all. No insurance.
I guess the airhead princess thinks thats OK.
So long as we all work for peanuts.”

Laughable comment……given that civil servants are making double and more what private industry pays

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304311204579507512375765276?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304311204579507512375765276.html

#131 Old Man on 04.22.14 at 10:06 am

#122 Stickler – The Sturgeon project upgrader which has 1/10th the capacity of an oil refinery had an estimated cost of $8.5 billion just to clean the oil up a bit for pipeline transmission. Mr. Black’s proposal for $26 billion to be completed by 2022 has no takers; he went to Caesar begging for a small loan as the Chinese put $16 billion on the table. Caesar said NO.

#132 shawn on 04.22.14 at 10:15 am

Fractional Reserve Banking

Ozy at 80 wishes for an expose on fractional reserve banking.

He complains about : inflation caused by pumping dollars out of thin air (fractional debt based system) makes lenders putridly rich as they collect interest on money they never HAD

****************************************
Oxy, can we assume you are heavily invested in bank shares? Or do you view that as immoral?

I am quite cetain that you would not like a world without fractional reserve banking.

#133 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 04.22.14 at 10:16 am

No wonder they have nice cars.
_______________________________________________

Ya Ive noticed that every Real Estate Agent I have ever come across has a nice high end vehicle, usually a BMW, Mercedes or Caddy. Actually it makes sense they are not that smart. A car is the worst investment you could ever make unless its a classic car!
Sure would love to see my real estate agent pull up to my home in a 1957 Bel Air. Now that’s an agent I could deal with!
Smokin!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jo0F_HgTofI

#134 rateswillnevergoup on 04.22.14 at 10:54 am

AHAHAHAHAHA… get real. Rates are NEVER going to go up again. We’re in a worse situation now than Japan ever was. The reason rates will never go up again is because its impossible for any western government to service their debts if rates go up. The amount of debt that governments accumulated since the financial crisis makes them the biggest debtors in the history of planet earth. Governments and central banks will never raise rates again until we have a complete catastrophic collapse that includes the destruction of all fiat money and the entire current global economic and banking system. That could take a long time, so to hold off on buying a house and waiting for rates to go up and prices to come down… hahahahahaha ok.. it will happen. But it could be another 100 years until that happens. Have fun waiting in your rented coffin at that point.

Rates rise with economic growth. Best pepare now. — Garth

#135 rentaholic on 04.22.14 at 11:01 am

Forget HAM, check out what HMM (Hot Marijuana Money) is apparently doing to BC RE:
“…just over 30,000 people have a licence from Health Canada to grow marijuana for themselves or for another person. More than half of them are in B.C. […] In one case, a grower stated one room of marijuana was for medical purposes while another was a ‘mortgage helper’.”
http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/#!/content/1.2542435/

#136 Smoking Man on 04.22.14 at 11:01 am

#125 Smoke This on 04.22.14 at 8:50 amWhy do virgins buy Toronto real estate….. At these insane prices

………………………………………………………………………….

Hey Smokey, didn’t you purchase a home down in Longbranch. Prices have been insane in this city for the last ten years. So virgin why did you buy? And don’t say I just moved here cause you have already told us you’ve been there for some years now?
So babble on and explain!

Signed,
Ex Virgin.

…….

Last night I was applying iceberg theory under the influence of a rather bizzar mixture of experimental items..

Long branch is golden… So is everywhere else.. Too.

For 7years or so I’ve been telling to dogs, why real estate would continue to be cool. In spite of the fact fundamentals are out of wack….

The Herd, and why is the herd so retarded, teachers and school.

And the next lot behind millenials even more retarded….

So your bet was a good one.. But it’s based on more zombies that can’t think coming out of
machine…

Look what I did last night.. Typed things outside the norms and boundaries of programmed behaviour, and a shirt load of schooled came out to trash me.

Dogs must remain in there mental cages, stick your nose out, the well trained will bark at you…

Woff….

#137 Daisy Mae on 04.22.14 at 11:05 am

“Last week the bank cop, OSFI (Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions), grumbled once again about the impact of cash-back mortgages, urging insurers like CMHC and Genworth not to cover deals where bank bribes were involved. “Incentive and rebate payments should not be considered part of the down payment,” it said. So far, nobody is listening much. That includes the new F, Joe Oliver.”

***********************

Can anyone doubt now that the Conservatives — you know, the ‘Harper Government’ — doesn’t and never has, given a damn about Canadians?

#138 Doug in London on 04.22.14 at 11:11 am

@Andrew Woburn, post #103:
The second rule, namely: the price of gold cannot fall, it can only be manipulated lower was actually true in 1999. It makes me wonder, why weren’t there long lineups to buy it in 1999, when it was in sale, like in there were in early 1980?

#139 GTAHouseHunter on 04.22.14 at 11:37 am

Last week I raised an issue about the same house listed under multiple MLS #’s. Any idea if this is legit ? Can somebody list the same house with multiple agents?
Garth would you be able to clear this confusion.

#140 SCIBADUBADEBUMBADO on 04.22.14 at 11:37 am

#133 rateswillnevergoup on 04.22.14 at 10:54 am

I wonder if you are right?
Japan has had low interest for over 20 years. They have not had any economic upswing in that time. Probably due to aging demographics.
Our demographics are also aging. That is a powerful indicator.

#141 Suede on 04.22.14 at 11:43 am

Dow Jones at all time record high – 18,202

…in Canadian Dollars

Get yourself a portfolio with exposure to more than one currency :)

#142 Suede on 04.22.14 at 11:46 am

#102 End CMHC

Are you nuts? Why would you want the prices to crash 50%?

So you can get yourself a house?

Dream on or find a way to afford one.

#143 gut check on 04.22.14 at 11:48 am

So I’m getting a little tired of the cognitive dissonance at play here.

Do we have a lack of data, or not?

We don’t know who is buying these properties, we barely can tell the prices let alone the downpayments, whether or not these are all cash buyers, etc. We certainly don’t have any access to WHO purchased the properties…

In the absence of this data it seems that berating “first time buyers” or “Gen Y” or “boomers lending the downpayment” or even “shady regulations/cash back deals/downpayment avoidance schemes” seems ridiculous – a blind guess tinged with propaganda. What’s the deal?

I mean WTH, how do we even know what percentage of Canadians actually own their own homes? Can we really tell that??? 70% home ownership (or thereabouts?) How, pray tell, do we know that in the absence of transparent data? Are we just taking the number of owned homes and relating that to the number of Canadian citizens? Are we even excluding babies from that calc, if so where are the raw data coming from???

IMHO there is NO WAY, given what we DO actually know – which is that people have a debt to income ratio of 167%, the unemployment/underemployment rate is sky high, CPI is out of hand when costing in energy, food, insurance, taxes etc – things that aren’t priced in at the moment – and student debt along with the insanely low savings rate of most Boomers – that it is actual boots on the ground, normal, johnny lunchbox Canadians that are buying these places.

Oh, sure, we have the odd example of some silver spoon or pie-eyed 20-something overpaying big time for a shack in the inner cities, but other than that what do we REALLY know?

I believe (because it’s the only thing that makes actual sense and is actually achievable) that it’s large investment companies and offshore money that is buying these places.

Why do I think so? Because REITs, because vacanies, because of everything I’ve already outlined. It’s madness that can literally, truly, and ONLY be explained by the fact that there is no safe place to park money anymore, so people the world over are buying bricks and mortar with either:
a. the promise of a rise in equity larger than the banks are giving out; or
b. the idea that at least they’ll be able to rent the thing if push comes to shove.

2 cents. but it’s worth a bundle. don’t believe the hype.

#144 BCD on 04.22.14 at 11:52 am

#18 World According To Garth on 04.21.14 at 7:52 pm
DELETED

#23 World According To Garth on 04.21.14 at 8:07 pm
DELETED

#37 World According To Garth on 04.21.14 at 8:27 pm
DELETED
=========================

How’s that ‘definition of insanity’ go again?

Repeating the same thing over and over, expecting a different outcome?
____________________________________________

I am certain she is an ex gov’t worker, disgruntled and jaded about being let go from work (due to lack of qualifications) and now a stay at home mom making diddly squat.

At least she is “Top Troll” on Garth’s board, along with Smoking Fool. But really, she should be looking after her kids more and not playing online so much.

#145 James on 04.22.14 at 11:55 am

Rates rise with economic growth. Best pepare now. — Garth

You are correct expect a rate rise. But not to the degree that you expect. Negligible impact on RE price.

#146 Ry YYZ on 04.22.14 at 12:04 pm

#75 Vancouver RE agent on 04.21.14 at 10:16 pm

How does one take a home equity loan (or line of credit) on a home that they have no equity in? I looked into getting a HELOC, but it appeared that the banks aren’t interested until you have at least 40% equity.

#147 BCD on 04.22.14 at 12:10 pm

You know what Gartho old boy. . .sometimes I wonder why you do this. You have a new blog post every day. . .each one comes on the heels of the hot debated comments of the last blog post, but yet, you never slow it down? There is an old saying “opinions are like nails, the more you hit them the further you drive them in”. You are hitting this “opinion” of yours daily, ad nauseum. . .and in so doing you are missing the point. Let me explain.

A long time ago I met someone who I thought I was supposed to fall in love with. Long story short, she broke my heart in a million pieces etc. etc. For years afterwards I was trying to figure out the meaning this event had for me. As much as I wanted her to define the idea of “love” for me so that I could fall in love with her and be forever in bliss, she was not destined for that role in “my” life. That woman was put on earth not to love me, but to teach me how to forgive and get over anger. Tough lesson it was.

And so I surmise. . .that real estate was put on this earth not to crash and prove you right, but to go on increasing in value for all eternity (you laugh but I am serious—we are heading to Japan’s generational mortgages). Accept it. Change the name of this blog, change your worn out message before you do more damage to the house seekers who keep following your advice. And update your damn picture—you look like some hippie member of ABBA in that front page photo.

#148 fixie guy on 04.22.14 at 12:30 pm

#75 Vancouver RE agent: “Agreed on bank loosey loose standards. But why not!?!?!”

They have no choice, the first business accepting the CMHC’s no risk lender guarantee gains an indomitable strategic market advantage over competitors. Fiduciary obligation to the stockholder, etc.. It’s why I maintain these policies represent the most egregious transfer of wealth from the public to the private sphere in Canadian history.

#149 Basic Stuff on 04.22.14 at 12:36 pm

In Saskatchewan we can buy houses with zero down via the Head Start program. Pretty much the same thing as you’re talking about.

http://headstartonahome.ca/about/equity-builder-program

Keep up the good work, Garth!

#150 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 04.22.14 at 12:45 pm

Its coming, change is a coming!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/give-yourself-a-real-estate-reality-check/article18083289/

#151 Blacksheep on 04.22.14 at 12:46 pm

“Rates rise with economic growth.”

“Best pepare now. — Garth”
————————————–
Agree rates will rise, when growth heats up.

Trouble is in the western world, we have got shit growth, on a global scale. Which rabbit from the proverbial hat were you expecting. Internet 2.0? Cold fusion? Of course there is always the financier’s / manufacturers fave, the tried and true W.W. whatever.

Systemic expansion is absolutely necessary. This IS the problem.

To many workers and not enough consumers. If the gov. steps in as debt taker of last resort (creating new $ as required) that only lasts so long, until the public’s false understanding of sovereign debt becomes a problem. Misguided, yes, but perceptions must be maintained or the Cattle will see through the charade.

Diminished EROEI has cut into the profit that used allow Serf wages to somewhat stay with inflation. Wages have been stagnating for decades as unions lose their leverage and cheap outside labour has become available.

Temporary foreign workers at McDonald’s in Victoria BC?

Does anyone really wonder why canada wants to keep housing going? Why the system is constantly finding ways to create new money, via more debt ? Expand or die, can’t put it any simpler than that. It’s been this way for seventy years, as it’s all most people alive today know.

I’ve got no solutions, but believe unless something significant changes, any expectation of growth beyond tepid, is wishful thinking.

#152 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 04.22.14 at 12:49 pm

INSANITY, MASS MADNESS, GREED…

Like some diabolical freak of nature, the revisiting of the subprime disaster, has a place among us in that it will again become a cruel culler of the financially incompetent, the generally dispossessed and the rest of them who’ll be getting exactly what they’ll eventually deserve.

Here’s how American blogger Mike Krieger, of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog, interprets the nuttiness extant in the US as the subprime loans business re-escalates:

Similar to us in Canuckistan!?

“In February, I highlighted the fact that subprime loans were about to make a return in my piece: Subprime Mortgages are Back…This Time Marketed as “Second Chance Purchase Programs.” In that article, I posited that with the “all cash” private equity shops and hedge funds no longer able to make good returns through buying new homes to rent, these investors would need some sucker to sell to in order to realize a return (Blackstone’s purchases have plunged 70% recently). That sucker, as always, will be the retail muppets, and those muppets will be lured in through subprime. This is now starting to happen in earnest.

The following article from the Wall Street Journal is both depressing and disturbing:

While standards remain tight by historical measures, lenders have started to accept lower credit scores and to reduce down-payment requirements.

One such lender is TD Bank, Toronto-Dominion Bank’s U.S. unit, which on Friday began accepting down payments as low as 3% through an initiative called “Right Step,” geared toward first-time buyers and low- and moderate-income buyers.

TD initially launched the program last year with a 5% down payment. It keeps the product on its books and doesn’t charge for insurance. Borrowers also don’t need to put down any of their own cash if a family, state or nonprofit group provides a down-payment gift.
So a measly 5% downpayment wasn’t good enough.

They had to drop it to 3%. Frightening.

The changes also are a recognition by lenders that the business of refinancing old mortgages, which had been a huge profit center for banks, is nearly tapped out. To generate future profits, banks will have to compete for borrowers who may not have perfect credit or large down payments…I’m sorry, but on what sort of bizarro crackhead planet is putting 3% down toward an asset mean you are “buying it.”

IN SUM

Will this craziness will go unnoticed, here, by all of the real estate flimflam artists, and their hangers-on, who are still hoping to be the last one into our real estate lifeboat with their filthy lucre?

#153 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 04.22.14 at 12:54 pm

#135 Smoking Man on 04.22.14 at 11:01 am
Last night I was applying iceberg theory under the influence of a rather bizzar mixture of experimental items..
_______________________________________________

Tell us something new! We already know about the bazaar mixture of experimental items you use. Did you notice I spelled correctly so others may read this rather provocative question?

#154 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 04.22.14 at 12:55 pm

Garth is this guy under your wing?
Rob Carrick actually makes some great points!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/real-estate-or-stocks-the-finer-points/article17945012/

#155 Bottoms_Up on 04.22.14 at 1:03 pm

#60 Notta Sheeple on 04.21.14 at 9:20 pm
———————————————-
That was not so much investigative journalism as a house value calculator, sprinkled with recent Teranet numbers and historical value plunges in Calgary and Toronto.

Most people that visit this blog could have put that piece together in a relatively short period of time.

Still awaiting REAL investigative journalism…..

#156 Grantmi on 04.22.14 at 1:06 pm

Starts on the outside and works it’s way into the middle. Classic!!

How badly would you be hurt in a housing market price correction? – The Globe and Mail http://bit.ly/1lAj4Ow

#157 Bottoms_Up on 04.22.14 at 1:07 pm

#129 airhead princess on 04.22.14 at 10:02 am
————————————————-
apples and oranges. that article compares the average salary a bank ‘staff’ member makes (requires at best 3 firing neurons to get the average position), with those that work in the office of federal regulators (may require at least 9 firing neurons).

#158 TheManwhoStaresatSheeple on 04.22.14 at 1:09 pm

Enjoy it while it last – Canada’s middle class richest in 20-nation study :

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/23/upshot/the-american-middle-class-is-no-longer-the-worlds-richest.html?_r=0

#159 BCD on 04.22.14 at 1:18 pm

#98 Ontario’s Left Coast on 04.21.14 at 11:55 pm
#73 – SM – I don’t even read the first word of his babble.

You mean you don’t revel in the idiotic ramblings about how wonderful his life is and how superior he is to mere mortals? I can’t imagine how I’d make it through the day without knowing the intimate details of his moronic conversation with his wife during their car ride. Go start your own blog SM and leave this one to the adults.
_____________________________________________

Regarding Smoking Man I suspect Garth is playing with us–or letting this fool play with us. I know that WordPress blogs give IP addresses from every poster–and Smoking Man is clearly posting comments supporting his idiotic ramblings (disguised as another poster) so why isn’t Garth just banning his postings via IP?

I read nothing from him. I suspect he is poor, eats cat food, is unemployed and has too much time on his hands. The only person continually worth their salt here is Ralph Cramdown–I’d like to know who that dude is.

#160 Kilby on 04.22.14 at 1:27 pm

#68 bobbo on 04.21.14 at 9:40 pm
please someone, Smoking Man needs his own blog and audience so he can babble.

Just scroll past any of his posts like most do. he does remove a certain amount of credibility from this otherwise insightful blog.

#161 Smoke This on 04.22.14 at 1:33 pm

This is who I immagine Smoking Man is……….and its not Owen Wilson.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bBe7EwydgA

#162 Sheane Wallace on 04.22.14 at 1:44 pm

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ottawa-must-keep-cap-reckless-spending-over-next-154631792.html

No reckless spending in the budget next year.
No money for services.

I guess this not include:
1. wild and crazy currency swaps to keep US dollar higher that Ca loonie.
2. CMHC guarantees.

What Joe should be saying is: sorry folks, we have no money for you. But for our friends /bankers we do.

#163 Sheane Wallace on 04.22.14 at 1:46 pm

#137 Doug in London
…………………………………..
The lines I saw at Scotiabank/King were in 2013 when the prices crashed.

#164 Daisy Mae on 04.22.14 at 2:14 pm

QUOTE: “Our Westbank lady, Kaila Klassen,went home also. (she lost in a cook-off contest) She did a find job. She says she quitting Real Estate and is going to open a restaurant in Kelowna soon….”

********************

Gee….I wonder why?

#165 Ronald McRBC on 04.22.14 at 2:42 pm

I am quite cetain that you would not like a world without fractional reserve banking.

—-
Shawn- You have been brainwashed.
Turn of your television immediately, check for fluoride in your tap water. Private banks are counterfeiting without even using paper, and you think it’s fine so long as you can buy some McShares. Why do you think there are so many nuclear power plants all over the world, plants that no one asked for? That’s right, when the sheeple wake up and want sovereign states and sovereign currency expect some melt down.

Do you know what counterfeiting is?

#166 Dr. Talc on 04.22.14 at 2:52 pm

Bloggers, please refrain from using meaningless words like “Canadian”

OK, it has NO meaning whatsoever

Canada is a colony.

Anyone who thinks that ‘Canadian’ makes you somehow special and entitled to something is in dreamland.
You are a number.

#167 Retired WI Boomer on 04.22.14 at 3:43 pm

#112 FREEDOM FIRST

They buy because it was the RIGHT TIME to BUY.

Same as loading up on S&P 500 Index in March 2009

Same as buying REITS last year when they slumped after “noise” about the end of FED EASING

As long as one has some idle cash, one can easily take advantage of an opportunity. As you know, FREEDOM 1st

#132 HOLY CRAP WHERES THE TYLENOL

My friend here is a Real Estate Sales person, who drives a trusty 1995 Buick Century with low miles. He will NOT waste his money on a depreciating asset. He also rents.

Does that “change” the market? No, obviously, but he reacts to things he can not change, and patience is a virtue. Neither does he need to ‘stretch’ the truth to make a sale – ever!

Would you really trust a salesperson like this? Think about that answer very carefully.

#168 Old Man on 04.22.14 at 3:55 pm

Caesar has finally found a new puppet to lick his boots and its the Olive Man who is a reformist now. The Olive Man has declared that a common securities regulator for all of Canada is a priority like USA. Just one small problem as the Supreme Court has ruled that Ottawa could not unilaterally “impose” a new system on the provinces. I guess the Supreme Court ruling matters not, as only Caesar rules with decrees staged by his puppets.

#169 Snob detective on 04.22.14 at 4:02 pm

Add this to the professional Eastern EU beggars that are moving in and London is becoming a foreign and different city at an incredible place which is too fast and upsetting for some. We live in a global context now.

ENGLISH RACIST JANE 24……..GO BACK TO YER CAVE ALREADY, LONDON OS NO LONGER YOURS.

#170 Ralph Cramdown on 04.22.14 at 4:22 pm

#138 GTAHouseHunter — “Last week I raised an issue about the same house listed under multiple MLS #’s. Any idea if this is legit ?”

It’s common in areas with boards with somewhat overlapping geography to list on both. Even though you see two listings for the same Burlington property on the public MLS system, an agent logging in through the Hamilton-Burlington board’s agent-facing system would only see the listing on that board, and a TREB agent would only see the TREB listing – the public MLS.ca consolidates them, in its usual crappy fashion.

Less common is two different brokerages “co-broking” a listing. I always figure this is caused by “You’re a great agent, Mary, but I promised my cousin who just started last year that I’d help her out. Will you split the listing with her?”

The issue with the above two is when they both get update to sold, does the board count this as only one sale even though there were two listings? Does CREA adjust its figures to avoid double counting if two boards report the same house as sold?

Also sometimes seen is a listing gone into foreclosure with the old agent who was trying to sell for the owner either too lazy or out of the loop to take the listing down, and a new power of sale listing from a different brokerage showing up at a significantly lower price.

#171 Piccaso on 04.22.14 at 4:42 pm

I think i’m going play Mexican and F off to Vegas. Been unemployed up in Alberta for a year now and still nothing.
The rent for dump here is like $1,200 a month and I can live in a 3 star with pool for $500 a month with utilities, cable and internet included.
Might even get a cash job working some casino.

#172 Stickler on 04.22.14 at 4:47 pm

@ #130 Old Man on 04.22.14 at 10:06 am

———————————–

When they talk about what’s cost-effective and so on, they’re speaking from the perspective of their company, and not Canada or Canadians or Albertans.

Importing it at (expensive) world prices in the east, and exporting it at a discount in the west is not benefiting Canada as much as it could & should.

Example: When the difference between Western Canadian Select and the Brent crude oil that is imported into eastern Canada reached $30.50

–> it was estimated to be a gap that costs the Canadian economy $19-billion annually.

You can play with the numbers all day and come up with lots of different things.

…and Canada should not leave itself with no strategic oil reserve supply.

#173 My thoughts on 04.22.14 at 5:01 pm

2290 saxony court is back on auction on the 27th. What happened lol?

#174 Old Man on 04.22.14 at 5:39 pm

#171 Stickler – It just goes to show you there is no energy policy that makes sense in Canada for some of your reasons, and do not have the answers. LNG is the big play now for an export terminal which has many factors and limitations for capacity and shipping. They can run as high as $50 billion and Australia has lots of skin in the game as are shipping. LNG has been around since the 1960’s and who ever heard of the Kenai LNG plant that has been shipping natural gas to Japan for decades located in Alaska under contract. Canada has proposals on the table but by the time of any potential completion it might be too late. There is a good one for Nova Scotia as it makes sense to proceed based upon the facts which are very interesting indeed.

#175 john on 04.22.14 at 5:50 pm

#102 End CHMC

Canada can not put a total stop to CHMC as that would crash home prices over 50% in a flash and every realtor here knows it. Garth should try to expose CHMC as a sub-prime lender and put a stop to it. Buyers should have 10% down and not a penny less. If banks want to lend below this threshold then they are free to do so. I would bet NO BANKS would lend to ANYONE With 5% down with these cheap rates and high housing prices so why should Canadian taxpayers have to do so? Realtors, mortgage brokers are true scum with many lacking high school. Maybe it is time for a petition to stop CHMC or at least get down payments higher

#176 Nosty the Pope Snugglebums the 666cd on 04.22.14 at 6:04 pm

Gold and Silver as money? One state down, 49 to go and Secession? Say no more!

#177 Laura on 04.22.14 at 6:10 pm

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/canadian-home-buyers-putting-up-bigger-down-payments-lenders-say/article18110955/?service=mobile

People are putting more down payment. Goes to show RE price have more to grow. Until you see for sale sign every other 3 houses its status quo. Especially strong urban markets like Toronto.

#178 dan on 04.22.14 at 6:27 pm

I think smoking man is a joy in the world. Some distraction is welcome in these canyons of corporate brutality, called western democracy. Bottom line that land on which your home is located (lot) is property of queen of England (all verified in land registry). So how do you like it now?

#179 TheCatFoodLady on 04.22.14 at 6:39 pm

Got a listing for Saxony Court? My Google-Foo is weak this day; “Find it, I cannot, even using the Force.”

TIA

#180 Vic on 04.22.14 at 6:42 pm

WY RENT when you can live in your bmw cabriolet?

#181 IN MISSISSAUGA on 04.22.14 at 7:06 pm

@ #172- I’m very curious too….The media tooted so much was that it was sold & now they are silent on the re-auction. Mississauga News is now pumping the auction for 2346 Doulton Av. So it is convenient journalism how they have totally left out any mention of Saxony Court (trying to avoid any negative attention I guess). Though I received a flyer through Canada Post from the realtor for a Dual Auction- 2 Luxury Homes: 2290 Saxony & 2345 Doulton.
http://www.mississauga.com/news-story/4475228-resort-style-mississauga-mansion-goes-on-the-auction-block/

Or maybe a case of the media conveniently picking & choosing what information the gullible public should have access too….

#182 IN MISSISSAUGA on 04.22.14 at 7:16 pm

#178 : W2872472

http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=14311186

#183 jess on 04.22.14 at 7:17 pm

big mac index
http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index

some are not laughing
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/04/22/mcdonalds-results-idINL2N0NE0J920140422

#184 jess on 04.22.14 at 7:20 pm

Canada’s Finance Minister Oliver :
“As an investment banker and a securities regulator I’ve seen the inefficiency that flows from our current system of each of our 13 provinces and territories having its own securities commission. It leads to not only inefficiency but it leads to an impact on enforcement and on the oversight of systemic risk,” he said.

=====
Top L.A. bankruptcy law firm to close doors | Reuters
in.reuters.com/…/us-bankruptcy-lawfirm-idINBREA3L1Q920140422‎
1 hour ago – Stutman’s Davidson said companies that previously would have filed for bankruptcy now opt for refinancing because of lower interest rates

#185 Daisy Mae on 04.22.14 at 8:21 pm

#83 Joe Calgary: “Another obvious one everyone here is ignoring is raising the amortization periods back up to 30, 35 or even 40 years again….”

***************

It didn’t work the first time ’round. So why would it work now? Duh!

#186 Doug in London on 04.23.14 at 12:31 pm

@Ronald McRBC, post #165:
There actually were some people who asked for nuclear power. They were engineering minded types who saw the need for reliable base load power which, despite incidents like Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima are a statistically safe way to generate a lot of power. They produce no carbon emissions (at least not directly) and are a good option when all the big rivers are dammed up for hydroelectric power. Without them Ontario, Britain and France would be into rotating blackouts because the grid is so undergenerated.