The cheapest house for sale in Vancouver ($599,000 on half a lot in a crappy location) just sold for $40,000 over asking. To a kid, of course.
In Toronto, agents swear the moribund condo market is resuscitating, even as a gush of new units hits. Realtor David Fleming is described in the Globe: ‘He adds that he’s never had this many active condo buyers before. He also notices that twentysomethings are finishing school, working for a year and diligently saving their for a downpayment. “They’re saying: ‘I’ve got my 5 per cent – I’m ready. My condo buyers are getting younger and younger.”’
Back in Van, a one-bedroom apartment went to market Monday and by Tuesday at noon had three offers, all above asking. All from Millennials. The ‘winner’ added ten grand to get the prize, no conditions.
This kind of activity has led the mainstream media to slather over a real estate boom in which big demand meets thin supply for overwhelming price appreciation. Sellers in Toronto and Calgary “hold all the cards,” reads one daily’s headline this week.
Sexy story. If it were only true.
The real estate market today is all about hormonal young buyers and segmentation. The houses that Millennials and GenXers, hipsters and yuppies think are affordable, are being devoured – but only in the cities, and particular hoods. These are most often in the $600 to $900K range where mortgage insurance is available and kids need but 5% down.
Above $1 million, crickets. Price reductions. Long days-on-market. And this is not an insignificant segment. In the GTA there are about 2,700 properties currently listed above a million (of 16,000 for sale). In Vancouver, the number is an astonishing 4,500 (of 14,400 listings).
Now that we’ve had more than a year to assess things, it’s obvious that cutting seven-figure houses off from mortgage insurance has had a dramatic impact on the market. While somebody buying a $995,000 semi full of bugs need only cough up a down payment of $50,000, the purchaser of a house down the street going for $1,050,000 must have at least $210,000 in cash to close the deal. This sure separates the wheat from the chaff. And it could mean a mess of trouble down the road as rates rise and markets moderate. But you know that.
And here’s some interesting data mining and manipulation from a blog dog who calls himself Aggregator. Because he apparently has no life, he catalogued every house sold thus far in April in Toronto, and then graphed the selling price relative to the ask.
The summary table he posted yesterday in the comments section shows how many houses actually fetched far less than vendors originally wanted recently or in the past, and how this was utterly masked by realtors bringing out new listings at renewed pricing.
Below is his graphing of April sale prices relative to the ask. Note that fewer than one in three houses actually changed hands for more than the list price, and of those a number were total reno jobs requiring further big bucks.
Meanwhile, as I’ve shown in the past, sales volumes for SFHs are running substantially below levels of two and three years ago.
So what?
So you should worry about the kids. The real estate market in the hot zones is running on hormones, not experience. Older, wealthier buyers are not storming the gates. There is no across-the-board price momentum. The average prices and Frankenumbers that real estate boards trot out are being skewed higher by a paucity of sales at the top end and a small riot in the middle, where values are being shoved up against the CMHC insurable limit.
Yesterday’s post was meant as a cautionary tale against buying without an expert inspection. I could make the same warning against jumping into a bidding war with 5% down, 95% leverage and no conditions.
But you can’t fix stupid. You just grow out of it. Sometimes.
182 comments ↓
First ?
Cycle of life, Garth. What don’t you understand? People don’t move out to the burbs after they graduate in finance or social studies! Gawd! People need to hit some milestones, like frosh week, graduate, have sex, buy a condo, retire and die. Why so judgemental? Not everyone is smart enough to move to Windsor.
Can I give a shout to my mum?
The housing ‘market’ today is all about government irresponsibility through CMHC for the profit of the banks.
In 2009-2010 we had brief price correction of 15-20 % before F introduced 40 years mortgages after which prices resumed it’s ascent.
Any correction less than 40-50 % is meaningless as it would come at the expenses of our currency becoming a crap currency.
I doubt Herr H will get state funeral.
Here, once again, is a link to help anybody who isn’t sure who [email protected] is, or whether they should worry because they don’t have any lawn ornaments.
The GarthFAQ
Those are not youngsters like 25y olds
bidding is done by 35-40y old houseless folks which want to move from kondo to lowrise due to generational shift
stop blaming the young and restless
What blame? I’m just worried for them. — Garth
It still looks like the majority of sales are within ±5% of asking. Won’t this lead the real estate cartels to claim that pricing accurately reflects the market? The chart also makes the point that the runaway, bidding war prices reflect the anomalous extremes of the market.
Factor in all the relistings and it’s hardly as impressive. — Garth
Todays blogline from one of the most viewed RE blogs in Edmonton (LIV real Estate) screams this:
“SELLERS MARKET GRABS HOLD IN EDMONTON”
Suddenly, it appears that it’s a Sellers market everywhere in Canada.
Funny how that’s happening everywhere all at once, right at the peak spring selling season, what a coincidence.
and we seem to fall for this BS time and time and time again.
Don’t forget to:
BUY NOW or BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!
because THEY’RE NOT MAKING ANY MORE LAND!
and REAL ESTATE ALWAYS GO UP!
and DON’T PAY SOMEONE ELSE’S MORTGAGE!
ONLY LOSERS RENT!
A big part of the demand from the younger generation is due to the huge wealth transfer going on in this country right now. On average there has never been a richer group of Canadians between the ages of 50 to 65. With the kids out of the house and retirement on the horizon many of them are choosing to pass down some initial inheritance early :)
Breaking News- Embryo calls realtor David Fleming, wants to buy a condo.
Garth, Second paragraph: saving their (sic) for a downpayment
I think the headline was Calgary and Toronto, not Vancouver and Toronto (where sellers are in control)
#HotZones&Hormones
@Ralph/#162… PriorThread
3GoldStars… and a LolliPop.
To amplify upon your discourse – a short paper [some heavy lifting] from MIT’s library; of possible interest to HD and other amateur FortuneTellers interesting in exploring StrategicUncertainty through the mathematical prisms of GameTheory:
The Use and Abuse of Game Theory
in International Relations
THE THEORY OF MOVES
RANDALL W. STONE
Department of Political Science
University of Rochester
http://tinyurl.com/oc98ays
Personally, I do not believe that mathematical, statistical and/or stochastic methodologies have any valid place in international relations theory… but that’s just me.
Or, to put it differently, calculators don’t go to war – people do. Often, for the silliest of reasons – e.g.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pig_War
Fortunately, on that particular occasion, things more or less worked themselves out… Well, unless of course, you happened to be the pig.
See Also:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fog_of_War
#3 Sheane Wallace,
You’re right about the drop in prices in 2009 but your wrong about what reversed it. 40 years were brought in before that, maybe 2006 or 2008…Carney stopped the housing carnage by lowering the overnight rate to 1%. Easy money for the lenders to dole out, pigs to the trough, and soon to the slaughter.
Addendum #FamousLastWords #Helmuth von Moltke the Elder
“No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main strength” (or “no plan survives contact with the enemy,”) and “Strategy is a system of expedients.”
“no plan survives contact with the enemy,”)[2] and “Strategy is a system of expedients.”[2
#1 Brennan on 04.15.14 at 5:02 pm
First ?
……………………………………………………………………..
and stupid
Aggregator is onto something.
Another example – a semi that has been on sale in the hood for almost a year.
C2692104 31 Earnscliffe – July 16, 2013
$ 549,000
(then – renos, according to realtor they were over $100,000, while the for sale sign stayed put for months)
C2811495 31 Earnscliffe – January 16, 2014
$ 679,000
C2866227 31 Earnscliffe – March 31, 2014
$ 629,900
“SOLD April 10, 2014. $630,000. 100% of list. DOM: 10”
Yeah,….right.
(source: guava.ca)
Garth no accolades for the great smoking man, calling the re market for the last 5 years pretty accurate…
But then again, you had the misfortune of going to school.
But then again It’s all about behavior, it’s programmed into our collective physic and I’ve been bad… Very bad, especially on my hazy experimental weekends.
So, I will take comfort in the fact that.. Like rob Ford, did a good job…
Moral of the story, being good don’t matter, so long as you behave like, Wynne..
The people will love you..
I’m just smh at all this. Realestate is a poor mans rags to riches dream. In reality, just like the boomers, it will lead to poverty. How is house rich, cash poor someone’s idea of a good life?
I have a habit of looking at the statements that are left behind in a bank machine. What I’ve seen is shocking. A lot of negative balances in bank accounts.
Its simple. Short Canada.
Either prices will crash or immigration will be further increased, thereby guaranteeing a backlash….causing a crash.
Either prices will crash or our currency will be annihilated. If our currency is annihilated, imports will become super expensive and cause energy prices to soar in Canada therby causing a depression.
Short Canada.
#8 Liquid
Maybe.
or maybe wishful thinking.
I would like to suggest something weird; that today’s young people wait until they have EARNED enough money to buy a house.
instead of
waiting for the greatest wealth transfer in history to GIVE them the money for houses they have not EARNED.
Well when the inmates (RE/MEDIA/BANKS) are running the asylum and the poor schmucks (BUYERS) have no access to valididate, accurate, unbiased data that could be provided at the flip of Zillow’s switch.
Meanwhile the Warden (FED Govt) Ignores the malfeasence “nothing to see here folks, move along”
Dear Players in this fiasco, You can run but you cannot hide. When this blows, gonna be some splaining to do…..the rot runs deep.
Very obvious combination of 5% and CMHC makes the real estate happen. This combination is pushing everyone to buy….I don’t think that Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver are so special . If downturn touched big US cities (don’t forget there is a lot of emigrants in Us also….) there is no reason to say that we are witnessing developing Canadian Crash…
We are not different species that US citizens, and our banks belong to the same capitalistic system….no different than any other banks.
CMHC is a Mickey Mouse and thanks to them we are so proudly house equipped Canadians. Everyone sees it and enjoy it the run….
Question only for how long…?
Just because the best laid plans oft go awry, Nemesis, doesn’t mean one shouldn’t have one. A standing army needs a Staff, and a Staff exists to make plans. Let’s just hope that the (undoubtedly junior) officer at the Pentagon assigned to “Crimea, land invasion of” was diligent in the execution of his duties.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0642803/
@ Ralph C. & Nemesis
Thank you guys fro your inputs.
Best,
HD
The Toronto market will top when “Gartho” and Smoking man finally meet for beer at Southside Johnnys.
I think wold be excellent idea to put mortgage rate
to 1% so everyone would be buying house!!!!
and we all could afford to take CMHC combination deal…
Everyone would be happy,,,banks , gov. people….paradise…
So thinking this way…..we all know what`s the main driver for great Canadian Real Estate……
In reality if you look at new houses , that piece of garbage particle board….it is great invention to make money…!!!!
TeeHee!
http://youtu.be/-Zfti7b31rs
Diligently saving their………..?
First-borns?
Garth. when is it a good to start low balling?
Out of curiosity, I ran the same query for Toronto sales in April. Here’s the results:
http://i.imgur.com/uYYNKtj.png
And of course, I screwed up the title of the chart. That should read “Toronto sales by percent of asking price, April 2014”
I just heard from a source that Caesar was playing the piano with his trusted front benchers and ended his solo with the following words of encouragement to an uproar of laughter.
“Under the spreading chestnut tree,
I sold you and you sold me:
There lie they, and here lie we,
Under the spreading chestnut tree.”
Realtor David Fleming: What you are saying will be with you forever. There will be consequences.
The same as the fact that the consequences are inescapable for the financial decisions every person makes, be they good consequences, or the consequence of a financial nightmare that has suddenly become the reality you will be living in. There is no escape.
Garth is a financial sage trying to help people. His financial advice is in no way anti-RE. His asset allocation formula is for a financially savvy, diversified, balanced, and liquid portfolio with regular re-balancing. Garth himself owns RE that fits within the formula %’s he advises for asset allocation.
I believe, that many people simply do not like the financial asset allocation formula that Garth uses himself, and advises others to use. Why do so many people not like Garth’s financial asset allocation formula? Simple, we live in a society of people buying what they “want”, but obviously (to me) they cannot afford.
Perhaps we should request Smoking Man to be our new Minister of Education?
That $1 million limit on CMHC insurance really should have been lowered even further. Not sure how far exactly, but something like $750,000 would have been a major improvement.
“The houses that Millennials and GenXers, hipsters and yuppies think are affordable, are being devoured – but only in the cities, and particular hoods.”
*****************
These people are very difficult to reach. So naive. So easily manipulated. So impressionable.
But, as you say: “You can’t fix stupid.”
I guess we all have to learn the hard way. It’s unfortunate and very sad.
#24 TurnerNation on 04.15.14 at 6:43 pm
The Toronto market will top when “Gartho” and Smoking man finally meet for beer at Southside Johnnys.
………
Sophie my dog, was telepathically communicating with bandit, she said he’s not allowed out with me.
Bandit was going through my deletes, he’s not impressed..
Ha….
But you can’t fix stupid. You just lie about it. Sometimes
Tokyo Electric Power Co. said Friday that toxic water found to have leaked last August at one of the huge tanks at the accident-hit Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant was far more contaminated than initially announced.
After recalculating the radiation level, Tepco said the water contained 280 million becquerels per liter of beta ray-emitting radioactive materials such as strontium-90, instead of 80 million becquerels.
A total of 300 tons of toxic water was found to have leaked at that time, part of which is believed to have flowed into the adjacent Pacific Ocean. The Nuclear Regulation Authority assessed the severity of the incident to be level 3 on an eight-point international scale.
http://www.gmodules.com/ig/proxy?url=http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/04/12/national/august-water-leak-at-no-1-far-more-toxic-than-announced-tepco/#.U03ERK6vdc-
I could make the same warning against jumping into a bidding war with 5% down, 95% leverage and no conditions.
….and who is allowing that?
“……..it’s obvious that cutting seven-figure houses off from mortgage insurance has had a dramatic impact on the market…….”
=========================
Why stop at seven figures?
Since when is it the taxpayer’s responsibility to backstop record bank profits and thereby further distort the housing market?
Unless pyramid housing equity is all that’s left of the current government’s one-trick-pony (in-)Action Plan.
KREA has posted their data for March – interesting. YOY for March, sales are down 10% with the highest drop in the $200-250K price range. In this city, that’s viable starter home territory so I’m wondering if the younger folks are listening or simply not deemed credit worthy because of consumer debt or unstable job situations?
Big uptick in places worth $500K & up – move up buyers taking advantage of low variable rates? Equity refugees from the Big Smoke entering their retirement years? I don’t have a clue.
Because more sales were recorded at the higher end, average price YOY went up 13% to $294,895. That’s a record here.
5% fewer new listings in March & it’s mentioned listings have been dropping these last few months. Buying must be as well then because there are 7.4 months of inventory available, up from 6.2 months a year ago. That’s also above the long term average.
Tipping point, anyone?
http://creastats.crea.ca/king/
#8 Liquid on 04.15.14 at 5:28 pm
A big part of the demand from the younger generation is due to the huge wealth transfer going on in this country right now. On average there has never been a richer group of Canadians between the ages of 50 to 65.
=======================
You’re probably right but how rich will they feel when mortgage interest rates double?
OK my 26 fans, had 27 but one found religion… Had to turf them. I’m a secular psychopath…
Have 4 manuscripts,
1) Smokeys guide to millions fast.
Trading, business, lying, not playing fair, scoundrel, sales.
2) Losers Lounge, fiction adventure at a Las Vegas conversation University professors work shop. Selling plagiarizing software while on the run from the FBI
3) Autobiography… Boring, my family’s favorite.
4) Real-life drunkin things that happened to me on my worldly adventures.
Which should I launch first?
Seems like many people in China will be learning about the dark side of Captalism soon.
Housing Trouble Grows in China
Overbuilding by Real-Estate Developers Leaves Smaller Cities With Glut of Apartments
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303456104579487790125203828?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702303456104579487790125203828.html
#37 Observer on 04.15.14 at 8:00 pm
I could make the same warning against jumping into a bidding war with 5% down, 95% leverage and no conditions.
….and who is allowing that?
=================
It’s not the government’s job to stop stupid.
What does Garth think about mom and pop just using their hard earned equity to help their kids stay in good standing under their mortgages? Will this have any impact on softening the blow of rising interest rates. In some communities mom and pop come up with down payment so why not throw the kid a few thousand and a few thousand there to avoid the embarrassment of the kid moving back in with his wife and kids? Can this segment of the economy have any impact on the market.
A realtor friend told me there is over 8800 homes currently listed for sale in Ottawa and last month only 1100 sold. This means there is an 8 month supply of homes for sale.
He also said May is typically the peak and expects listings to climb to over 10,000.
Its just going to get better for buyers and worse for sellers in Ottawa.
Smoking Man, why don’t you launch all of them at the same time? It doesn’t matter because we all know you’re a self-aggrandizing, illiterate fraud
@28 shane
“when is it a good time to start low balling?”
Now. Couldn’t hurt, could it? Unless you have something better to do. Offer 50% below asking. See what happens. Maybe you’ll start a trend.
Gettig your news from CREA or a real estate agent is like asking Gadhaffi or Saddam if they think the end might be near..
#32 Freedom First on 04.15.14 at 7:
Perhaps we should request Smoking Man to be our new Minister of Education?
What an easy job that would be, after I ban yellow highliters, would basically fire all of them.
Kids would be supervised by volunteers mom’s, dad’s.
One big ass TV. In the gym, get the best math teacher English, and history etc…
Teacher will focus on teaching them to get the answers on Google…
No tests. I’m not making rating slaves, making people resources full is the name of game.
Not only will they be smarter than the shit coming out today.
But that huge provincial deficit, well that will be a history in no time.
Oh and Manditory reading of this pathetic blog…
#43 Jackofall on 04.15.14 at 8:29 pm
It’s not the government’s job to stop stupid.
——————————
It is government job not to encourage it.
#41 Smoking Man on 04.15.14 at 8:15 pm — “2) Losers Lounge, fiction adventure at a Las Vegas conversation University professors work shop. Selling plagiarizing software while on the run from the FBI
“Which should I launch first?”
The second one — give us your Thelma & Louise story about running like hell while plagiarizing software!
The data that you show confirms that which I have observed. It would be interesting to see all of the bids rather than just the “winners”. Here in Cookiecutterville it’s rather easier to identify those “winners” who are new to the ‘hood or who just plain too stupid to do their due diligence, or perhaps have simply hooked up with a really sleazy agent. In these cases, a home that has been on the market for several weeks suddenly goes for over asking instead of the more typical 95% of asking
#41 Smoking Man on 04.15.14 at 8:15 pm
#1 but only if I get a free digital copy..
Great post. I can tell you that here in Ottawa, the condo market is completely in the shitter.
“How the Suburbs Made Us Rich”
An interesting take on how current urban planning may actually destroy wealth.
http://www.demographia.com/psats-suburbsrich.pdf
Just wait until kids born after 2000 start growing up. They’ll be getting absolutely nothing from THEIR parents. Then what happens?
You know it’s a stupid market when the average person can’t even save for a decent home on their own.
Smoking Man: How about an update on your bullish predictions for BB a few months ago?
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BB.TO&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
Another great article, the fools who buy now will be wailing and gnashing their teeth soon. There will always be fools who plunge I’m head first, they are the ones propping up the RE Market until it collapses. Just give it some time.
Smoking Man: a wealth man doesn’t have to talk about his wealth. A talented man doesn’t have to brag about his talent. An intelligent man doesn’t have to tell everyone how smart he is. You purport to be all three. We all know the truth.
#46 Cdn flier on 04.15.14 at 9:00 pm
Smoking Man, why don’t you launch all of them at the same time? It doesn’t matter because we all know you’re a self-aggrandizing, illiterate fraud.
…….
WTF Does self-aggrandizing mean. And I’m hardly illiterate.
Fraud, hell ya…
Back in 89, when the market crashed, how did so many walk away from their homes without much liability? Have the laws changed since? Will these hormonal 5% downers be able to walk away too?
Nobody walked without consequences. — Garth
Observer:
Would you by any chance live in Milton? If there is a cookie cutter place anywhere, it’s Milton.
#8 Liquid on 04.15.14 at 5:28 pm
A big part of the demand from the younger generation is due to the huge wealth transfer going on in this country right now. On average there has never been a richer group of Canadians between the ages of 50 to 65. With the kids out of the house and retirement on the horizon many of them are choosing to pass down some initial inheritance early :)
—————-
I guess you have not been to Timmy’s lately.
Lot’s of old farts working.
How is it that the buses that bring our kids to school are foreign-owned, by investors needing to make a buck…and these companies can just decide to shut down if their investors aren’t getting wealthy enough?
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Ottawa+school+companies+threaten+halt+service/9737828/story.html
Something’s not right here……
#59 Cdn flier on 04.15.14 at 9:34 pmSmoking Man: a wealth man doesn’t have to talk about his wealth. A talented man doesn’t have to brag about his talent. An intelligent man doesn’t have to tell everyone how smart he is. You purport to be all three. We all know the truth.
…….
Who told you that, your teacher, that belief, it’s only your programing coming out… But your conviction is coming out strong.
Your next, I’m ignoring you… Ya ya ya.
Does it not occur to you, I’m a bit off, not quite normal. Is it not possible that I’m everything I claim to be.
What if I told you, by day I’m a serious professional, best in the world at what I do. Behave perfectly at the tax farm. Like a good dog should. But I’m under self induced constant pressure to deliver the best service in an inhuman high pressure
environment.
By night a drunk, writing, writing writing.. And snapping…
Nothing is as it seems.. But your conviction to your own pre-programmed conditioning is weakness.
My God give you strength son…
If this guy’s “tea leaves” perspective on rates is correct I wonder if we have another 5-ish years of this environment…
http://goo.gl/zoCcfM (analog comparison, 10-year yields)
Good job, Aggregator.
Facts facts facts on US corruption at the Bundy Ranch. This is the real reason the Feds backed off. Too bad the hole in the corporatist greedy govt lines has now been exposed. Wonder what’s next?
http://youtu.be/HFiosLqjoQQ
You guys really need to follow Kathleen Wynne on Twitter.
She gets eviscerated by Twitter dogs everytime some student posts on her behalf… Like every tweet
She cdn flier, I got some 10 dollar
words in my tool kit…
You really have to wonder where this is all going to end up. The millennials are facing a huge up hill financial battle on both sides of the border. American kids have student loan debt of over a trillion which is more than all credit card debt combined. Our kids student loan debt is over $15 billion and that does not include the $5-8 Billion in credit card debt,lines of credit and provincial loans.
Now you start life!!!
#63 Son of Ponzi on 04.15.14 at 9:57 pm
#8 Liquid on 04.15.14 at 5:28 pm
A big part of the demand from the younger generation is due to the huge wealth transfer going on in this country right now. On average there has never been a richer group of Canadians between the ages of 50 to 65. With the kids out of the house and retirement on the horizon many of them are choosing to pass down some initial inheritance early :)
—————-
I guess you have not been to Timmy’s lately.
Lot’s of old farts working.
——————————————————
Or chinamart
Or Dairy Queen
Or Starbucks
Or Target
See the trend? All public companies. Boycott them. We do. Here at our house we actually know how to make food and brew espresso. You know…..like what you had to do 20 years ago and beyond.
CHINA’S GROWTH SLOWS TO 24-YEAR LOW OF 7.4 PERCENT
“China’s economic growth slowed to a 24-year low of 7.4 percent in the first quarter, raising the risk of job losses and a potential impact on its trading partners.”
So much for the HAM myth.
Let’s see how much the plethora of million dollar bolt holes, in Vancouver, are unloaded for now.
LINK: http://tinyurl.com/ndg44u2
#8 Liquid — “A big part of the demand from the younger generation is due to the huge wealth transfer going on in this country right now. On average there has never been a richer group of Canadians between the ages of 50 to 65. With the kids out of the house and retirement on the horizon many of them are choosing to pass down some initial inheritance early”
If you straight up asked a Boomer if he’d write a cheque for $800,000 to a less fortunate Boomer in the neighbourhood who needs the cash for living, you’d probably get an unprintable answer or a rant about socialism, the ant and the grasshopper, or what have you.
Tell him he only needs to come up with $100,000 and a note indenturing his child to three decades of servitude, and he’s happy to do it. Wealth transfer, indeed.
Had a bungalo in my sleepy etobicoke hood sell for $900K. The next weekend, we had a realtor come knocking on our door asking if we’re thinking of selling. I said no. She just kept babbling and blurting out her desperate rehearsed speech which included “it’s a seller’s market!” and eventually I had to slam the door on her because she wouldn’t shut up.
#41 – Smoking Man: Which one should I launch first?
—
Um, how about your bloated, festering ego? We come here to read about real estate and share opinions on matters financial (that means money and investing and things like that). We’re not here to fill your constant need for attention, praise and validation. Seriously dude, what could you possibly stand to gain from lying your face off to a room full of strangers? I know, I know: My teachers programmed me… obedience certificate… tree hugger, blah, blah, blah. Time to change the channel, bro, the sad truth is nobody cares.
#65 Smoking Man on 04.15.14 at 10:08 pm …
“…Is it not possible that I’m everything I claim to be…”
Nope.
SMOKING MAN – write the 1st book. Interject some funny life stories in between (from books numero 2,3, and 4). That’s all my man, ONE SMOKING BOOK and make history. It’s easy to links stories together, like a parantesis in conversation. Make it biographical story with lots of dialogs from master to students (like rich dad, poor dad book)
=======================================================================
Have 4 manuscripts,
1) Smokeys guide to millions fast.
Trading, business, lying, not playing fair, scoundrel, sales.
2) Losers Lounge, fiction adventure at a Las Vegas conversation University professors work shop. Selling plagiarizing software while on the run from the FBI
3) Autobiography… Boring, my family’s favorite.
4) Real-life drunkin things that happened to me on my worldly adventures.
Which should I launch first?
#64 Bottoms_Up – could it be that the school bus business controlled by two foreign companies in Canada is doing well? Now our dollar has fallen so in 2014 there will be an exchange rate problem to maintain those nice profit margins. Therefore, need more CAD to keep the gravy train moving in the right direction.
#Angels&Demons #Let’sHopeTheHeavyIonGuysDidn’tMessUp! #ThePeacemaker[s]
Demons:
http://vimeo.com/27373653
Peacemaker[s]:
http://youtu.be/C2NxwHIDTUA
[NoteToHommeDuTabagisme: TryDoor#4 – something to do with truth being… …than fiction {and weave everything else into it} NoteToSaltyCinephiles: #BonusDemonsHDTrailer + Contest : http://youtu.be/ArdNQUUcZOM …many are called… few are chosen {22.14}]
#Curses! #ForgotTheDarkComicRelief #RandyNewman #PoliticalScience
http://youtu.be/lrKYCsE48Lc
@#61 Fodork on 04.15.14 at 9:41 pm
“Nobody walked without consequences.” — Garth
Yeah but the system is such a farce, the slate is wiped clean 5 to 7 years later and the game can start all over again!
Why would it be any different this time?
#41 smokey – go with #4 at least it’s non-fiction. By the way i’m a fan so your back to 27.
Spent the day doing a representation agreement (i’m the monitor) so boring. Lawyer says one thing, law says another who do you trust? Nobody has credibility right now, so people just go with what they want and hope things work out. Old, young immigrant whatever. Reading between the lines needs to be changed too – Reading between the lines/spaces/letters etc. and if you can do that you wouldn’t be on this blog.
Very, very few…………
Fill in the blanks
Min of Finance
Realtors
Your Dr
Influence tomorrow’s activity
Who do you trust?
By the way, TrumpVu is getting ready to call the bubble pop date for all you with comprehension issues. I’m sure the rest of you don’t care. I’m fairly confident since I’m the culmination of the worlds greatest real estate minds.
Smoking Man:
What do you think about the self-inflicted passing of the interweb’s favourite conspiracy nutter, 9-11 Dick Cheney theorist, and ecological doomsayer, Michael Ruppert?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2605429/9-11-conspiracy-theorist-investigative-journalist-Michael-Ruppert-commits-suicide.html
http://www.vice.com/vice-special/apocalypse-man-part-1
Sometimes.. ah well.. you just gotta keep it real… sit back in the bathtub… turn on some CCR, tune into the Big Lebowski… fire up te comments section to Greater Fool on the ole’ iPad… and crack open a brewski.
Or some JD.
… dude dude dude lookin out my back door
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjBBDJ5OiT0
#Hipsters #HotSessions&Hormones #ParentHood #AdviceToWriters #BeginAgain #ComingAttractions
http://youtu.be/uTRCxOE7Xzc
[NoteToSaltyCinephiles: Catherine Keener was once a McDonald’s restaurant manager in NYC before her career as a CastingDirector got started… and after that? The rest, as they say, “…was history.” Is there enough MagicUnderTheMoonlight for you, too? “This really is a bit of a LongShot, isn’t it?” – “Absolutely. That’s when the Magic happens.” http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0001416/bio?ref_=nm_ov_bio_sm ]
This has to be Smokey’s theme song.
In fact, could be the theme song for the whole Greater Fool blogsite?
Kenny Rogers & the First Edition– “Just Dropped In (To See What Condition My Condition Is In)”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2P7WMEUkuo
I went wandering on the wrong side of town and ended up here –
http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2014/04/vancity-ranks-high-worlds-top-cities-real-estate-investment/#comment-1337953598
I got no love. I got 0 upvotes. That’s 9 upvotes less than the guy who called me a “little elephant uranus”
You cannot make this up people
#24 TurnerNation on 04.15.14 at 6:43 pm
The Toronto market will top when “Gartho” and Smoking man finally meet for beer at Southside Johnnys.
Are we trying to turn this place into a tourist attraction, I’ve never seen a bar mentioned so many times on this blog. Although the ribs are pretty damn good.
There is a comment on House Hunt Victoria about a sale in the Highlands area of Victoria. CMHC stepped in and bought the house from the owner for $1,575,000 and has just managed to sell it for $880,000.
I guess the money lost will have to be eaten by the taxpayer. So, the bank got its money from CMHC, but it’s the taxpayers that are doing the bailing out.
That’s a big loss for just one house. Is this a sign of things to come? Imagine this happening hundreds of times over!
CMHC does not buy houses. — Garth
#12 blase
You are correct, 40 years mortgages were introduced earlier at the worse of the US market meltdown.
ZIRP (1%) came in to reverse market down in 2009.
But the dip was 15-20 % in the spawn of 2-3 months in which nothing sells, according to few real estate agents that I knew. They thought that the market was way overpriced even with the correction.
Now we are truly in cuckoo land with valuations in Toronto and Vancouver between 2.5-4 times above normal. Any correction less than 50-60 % drop in value would require government subsidy. CMHC insures almost twice the national debt (0.9-1.1 trillion for banks and private insurers based on different estimates),
Regrets.
http://retirehappy.ca/hidden-cost-debt/
Addiction with real estate is like every other addition, a medical condition – people loose touch with reality and become delusional – see things that do not exist.
People I speak with are truly crazy, they buy 650 k tear downs in Toronto suburbs and start to imagine that the value went up 10 % in 3 months!
Get rich quick mentality, like in a Ponzi scheme.
If Canada, and by Canada I mean Toronto, ever experiences job losses in the middle to high end job brackets, or when the CMHC limit is lowered to $750,000 or under, oh my lord will this house of cards come a tumblin’ down. My buddy lives in Toronto, job market is super competitive. I keep wondering when these hipsters will realize that T.O. is not New York City, and life is what you make it, and a big city is not the be all and end all. Life is short, move out of the GTA and start living.
#75 Ontario’s Left Coast on 04.15.14 at 11:22 pm#41 – Smoking Man: Which one should I launch first?
–
Um, how about your bloated, festering ego? We come here to read about real estate and share opinions on matters financial (that means money and investing and things like that)
………
So you’ve appointed yourself as the tribes spokes person.
Use words like WE, US,… Consensus, group, wolf pack.
That’s your programming, I would have a hell of a lot more respect for you if you were a bit more manly…. Like.
I come here to read………. I, me. Hate your guts SM
Man up and like the word WE. That’s how slaves talk.
Do you not see it………
I think CMHC should be lowered even further. Why not have it match the Average Detached home in Canada or something?
Why $1M, or why is it even existing anymore?
“They’re saying: ‘I’ve got my 5 per cent – I’m ready. My condo buyers are getting younger and younger.”’
Serfdom by choice.
What blame? I’m just worried for them. — Garth
That is ridiculous. The house value will almost certainly triple by the time they retire.
interest rate to stay low. Wages to go up. Economy growing.
Yeah, right. Average $3 million houses are definitely on the way. — Garth
96 sm
He speaks for a lot !
You are a goof sm:)
@ #97 NYCer on 04.16.14 at 8:34 am
I think CMHC should be lowered even further. Why not have it match the Average Detached home in Canada or something?
Why $1M, or why is it even existing anymore?
———————————-
There needs to be a cap, or else there would be silly stuff like $2M mortgages with cashback on the 5% down.
Pre-Flaherty (actually, it was the Liberals who changed it in 2003), there was a cap of $250,000!!!
Why not start at the average price of a SFH ($400,000), and increase with inflation?
Also – make it just for first-time buyers, and only for primary residence.
CMHC’s stated goal is to help get low-end buyers into the market (this was initially for veterans post-WWII)… why the Government needs to insure $1M buyers is beyond me.
#100 tiger on 04.16.14 at 9:21 am
96 sm
He speaks for a lot !
You are a goof sm:)
………..
See that’s what I’m talking about, my lessons are slowly shining through..
You said.. You are a good sm. Rather than.
We all think your a goof…
I respect you for that. :)
#57 VT on 04.15.14 at 9:25 pm
Smoking Man: How about an update on your bullish predictions for BB a few months ago?
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BB.TO&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
————————————-
Or the bearish call on the Canadian dollar. SM and other financial wizards were all gonna go short 2 months ago cause it was going to $0.60 remember. How did that short work out for all you experts?
$900k House of the Day for Wednesday, April 16th:
3 Finalists
1) 11 ft wide! $975,000 “live/work opportunity” in Queen West
2) $979,900 attached in Little Italy, which is so cheap it EXCLUDES washer/dryer?
3) Just to throw in a condo: $998k ($677 per sqft) condo in Riverdale/Leslieville with $916/month condo fee
WINNER
#2: Simply because it is an old attached/semi-detached house that is bid up to the price of detached… but with far less flexibility to fix problems that arise.
I would hope that at some point the housing bears would throw in the towel and admit defeat, especially after 6 years of preaching the same “RE is going to get hit” yarn .
At what point do we admit that ” we was wrong”!
As a housing bear myself , I have eaten my crow already.
Actually house prices are lower in many cities, and sales are falling. Do not extrapolate specific hoods and price ranges in Toronto to be ‘the market.’ — Garth
#71 World According To Garth on 04.15.14 at 10:56 pm
You make an interesting point- you actually know how to do stuff. It’s a novel idea these days.
I’m not sure what’s happened in the past 40 years or so. When I grew up (I’m in my mid 30’s now), I was strongly influenced by my very practical father and his father who was a farmer. Guess what- both did absolutely everything around the house. If they did not have the ability to do something (such as have the driveway repaved) they knew someone in that business and could swing a deal with them to complete the task at hand. Their cost of maintaining their respective properties for the most part was very minimal as they paid for materials only and the labour and expertise was supplied by them. Both men were very patient and had a natural technical inclination, and neither was afraid to learn something new and master the required techniques before completing a project of any type. They were very humble people and never saw a task as being too menial for them to complete themselves. My mother and grandmother were also very self sufficient in their own way- from canning to cooking, it all happened at home. They didn’t rely on pre-made meals and canned vegetables.
I naturally picked up this sentiment. Now that I’m an adult, I have to admit that I very, very rarely pay someone to complete work that I can do myself. In the past say 20 years the only tasks I’ve left to a pro is drywall taping and carpet installation- two things I’m admittedly not well versed in and the cost of such services is low relative to the value they add to a project. My family cooks their own meals and my wife and I both have a lunch bag that we tote our mid day meals in rather than hitting a restaurant or cafe.
I maintain and repair my own vehicles, paint my own home, wash my own windows, seal my deck and concrete driveway, wash the siding, replace my own light fixtures and finished my own basement in our newer home. I do almost everything myself.
I can’t imagine how the average family pays to have everything done for them by a contractor, shop or restaurant. For example, to have a couple vehicles serviced- you roll into the shop every few months and you rarely roll out for less than $500.00. They (the garage) always find something else that needs “immediate attention” in addition to the basic service you came in for.
Then factor in maintenance around the home- new faucet here, leaky sink there. Maybe need some ceiling fans and light fixtures installed. Need (want??) a new deck. Want to finish that basement of yours? Having a pro finish your basement will cost you $25-30k to start. New bathroom? $25k. Kitchen? $50k. How the hell does anyone afford to do this??? Especially when having a trade person show up costs $100 just to step onto the driveway. I have clients routinely purchasing homes who have absolutely no idea which end of a hammer you’d hold in your hand. Owning a home is either going to cost them a ton in maintenance and upkeep or the home is going to deteriorate into sock-burner status after 10 years. When did we loose our self sufficiency and ability to do basic things around the house? Maybe it’s just a generational thing- the hipsters don’t want to dirt their skinny jeans and get paint in their perfectly trimmed beards. Maybe it’s the ESA commercials that air on the radio suggesting that you replacing your own light fixture is going to start a nuclear fire and set North America ablaze. Maybe people are just fearful, not incompetent. Funny part is people love these “gourmet” kitchens but they never use them. Ha!
And here’s the rub. I own my own business. My better half works for the regional government in the area we reside. We make a handsome 6 figure household income, have outstanding benefits and she has a gold plated defined benefit pension. We live very modestly. And yet, it’s still a challenge to get those dollars into RRSPs and TFSAs as well as RESPs for our kids.
I can only imagine how our financial situation would look if my family needed to pay someone to do everything for us. From making coffee to cooking meals to building a deck or changing the oil. That stuff all adds up….fast. Don’t get me wrong; we enjoy the odd meal out or Tim’s coffee as much as the next guy, but I often ask myself how family finances and hardship could change should people just try to be somewhat self sufficient.
Funnies from the Canadian gold mining industry:
“Under the stock-and-cash agreement with Yamana and Agnico-Eagle valued at $8.15 per share, Osisko shareholders will receive $2.09 in cash, 0.26471 of a Yamana share, 0.07264 of an Agnico Eagle share and one new share in a new Osisko with a value of $1.20 per share.”
…and a coupon for a free small coffee at participating Tim’s locations!
To afford the payment on a $800000 house these hipsters must make a lot of money. I made my calculation. With 5% down, the mortgage should be $760000. The monthly payment on that amount with 3% interest is $3596. Add property taxes and utilities $700, add a car or two $1000 and they have to come up with $5296. If they have kids add $1000 for daycare and $1000 for food and the total is $7296. I didn’t add money for clothes, entertainment or savings because doesn’t matter. They have to pay the mortgage. To have that kind of cash monthly the couple must have a $160000 salary. Not to mention if one of them loose the job they have to sell. Do all those hipsters have that high income? I do have that but I am in my 50. Maybe I don’t make enough. I should ask my boss for a raise!!
BOC statement… everything is fine, get back to your seats… oh, and, btw, the CAD is approved to go down. Enjoy!
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/04/16/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-statement/
#103 Castaway on 04.16.14 at 9:48 am
#57 VT on 04.15.14 at 9:25 pm
Smoking Man: How about an update on your bullish predictions for BB a few months ago?
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BB.TO&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
————————————-
Or the bearish call on the Canadian dollar. SM and other financial wizards were all gonna go short 2 months ago cause it was going to $0.60 remember. How did that short work out for all you experts?
……..
GET your terminology straight, it’s traded USDCAD
SO short means sell us with cad long means buy usd with cad.
You missed a post, when I called sell it, usdcad, bad stats put me huge in the hole, hang in got out with small profit. Now neutral.
As far as bbry, my call was perfect, spiked up, still about even. After the nasdq got slaughtered this week.
………..
Steve French did the guy shot himself in the head more than once?
……..
Ozy to smoking man, that’s exactly what I’m attempting to do, not as easy as you think..
…also mentioned housing “soft landing”. 2006 anyone?
@28 shane
“when is it a good time to start low balling?”
Now. Couldn’t hurt, could it? Unless you have something better to do. Offer 50% below asking. See what happens. Maybe you’ll start a trend.
******************************************
It could hurt pretty badly. Want to see what happens? Let me guess…
Mob lynching at the hands of real estate goons and RE pumpers….
The perils of backtest overfitting are dissected in the article “Pseudo-Mathematics and Financial Charlatanism: The Effects of Backtest Overfitting on Out-of-Sample Performance”, which will appear in the May 2014 issue of the Notices of the American Mathematical Society. The authors are David H. Bailey, Jonathan M. Borwein, Marcos Lopez de Prado, and Qiji Jim Zhu.
http://phys.org/news/2014-04-pseudo-mathematics-financial-charlatanism.html
Garth,
What do you think about the Kitchener market?
Buy or wait?
Thanks!
Stages of Emotions in House Prices
House Prices are too high!
Emotional Steps:
Shock (too high!, unaffordable!, outrageous)
Anger (dimantle CMHC!, can the finance minister, lynch the real estate agents and greedy sellers and stupid buyers!)
Denial (The numbers are wrong)
Acceptance (are we there yet?, some are…)
MLAAPAChicagoAmerican Mathematical Society. “Should you trust your financial advisor? Pseudo-mathematics and financial charlatanism.” ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 10 April 2014. .
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/04/140410103005.htm
=====
Why is this house listed 3 times and that too under 3 different Listing ID’s with different realtors.
Would anybody shed some light here?
http://beta.realtor.ca/Map.aspx#CultureId=1&ApplicationId=1&RecordsPerPage=9&MaximumResults=9&PropertyTypeId=300&TransactionTypeId=2&SortOrder=A&SortBy=1&LongitudeMin=-79.62271118164061&LongitudeMax=-79.58237075805662&LatitudeMin=43.53405070634204&LatitudeMax=43.55629177583366&PriceMin=900000&PriceMax=1000000&BuildingTypeId=1&BedRange=0-0&BathRange=0-0&ParkingSpaceRange=0-0&viewState=m&Longitude=-79.6052017211914&Latitude=43.6837005615234&ZoomLevel=12&CurrentPage=1
525 Indian Road, Mississauga, ON
Listing ID: W2870258
Listing ID: 2069334
Listing ID: H3129400
“Mob lynching at the hands of real estate goons and RE pumpers….” – ruchir
Sounds like something out of Monty Python. Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!
I generally agree with the fellow who asserted that any correction in the housing market will be softened by trashing our currency. A house will continue to be worth 450,000 dollars (or whatever) on average, and increase nominally, and I will continue to hear about that fact from my family and coworkers. But what those dollars are actually worth (measured in stuff that matters, like Italian wine, German beer, Japanese electronics, Chinese toys, Mexican vacations, and whatever else) could be another question entirely. I continue to think there’s a good chance that inflation will come to Canada soon based on a falling dollar.
An older uncle of mine responded to this by saying that a falling dollar would be good if it means inflation because real estate goes up with inflation. I guess I agree that it does, since your home should be worth roughly what an equivalent pile of new lumber and drywall would cost, plus the labour to glue it together. When I asked him why real estate had not gone up “with inflation” the last few years, when we’ve had none, I received no answer. And when I asked him what might happen when the cost of goods (drywall and plumbing fixtures, but also less important stuff like rice and gasoline) are going up, but the cost of labour is flat, I also received no answer.
I’m curious about how this goes. It’s hard for me to understand how a national market in which over 70% of the population participates can crash in nominal terms, but I think I understand how construction constituting 20% of our economy cannot continue, and how that might end.
“The real estate market today is all about hormonal young buyers and segmentation.”
Common scenario: Person has solid job in Calgary. Earns $100K/year. Rentals run $1800/month if you can find them. Eligible to retire 2045. Trends in Calgary since 2005 indicate housing increases steadily or staying stagnant, not dropping in price.
So given 1)lack of rentals, 2)rentals the same cost as mortgages, 3)long term job, all this talk about “hormones” to justify waiting is nonsense.
Renting makes sense if a person is close to retirement, say in 5-10 years or their job is not stable.
This blog is sheer nonsense and not applicable to Calgary, unless 1)interest rates skyrocket, 2)job loss, 3)lack of people wanting to buy houses in Calgary. Most of these 3 likely dont apply, so therefore this blog again is total bs and not to be listened to unless rentals in the short term for flexibility are desirable.
This blog does a disservice by not examining things from all angles. There is not one correct answer for all people all the time. In some cases renting may be better. In the majority of cases due to housing demographics, interest rates, lack of rental controls and high rental costs the unfortunate reality of mortgage possession is wiser and the happy delusion this blog provides should tossed out the window.
Sounds like someone is trying to justify throwing all of their wealth into an inflated cornflakes box in Cowtown. Good luck with that. — Garth
#106 Roger_Home_Inspector — “I’m not sure what’s happened in the past 40 years or so. When I grew up (I’m in my mid 30′s now), I was strongly influenced by my very practical father and his father who was a farmer.”
Your comment about manual skills does a great job of encapsulating similar thoughts I’ve had.
Yesterday there was a brief back-and-forth about Adam Smith and the invisible hand theory that everyone generally benefits if everyone works in his own self interest. I think that was mostly true at the time (late 18th C.), for the housewife went to market, and could inspect and judge the quality of the goods offered by the butcher, the baker and the candlestick maker, because she had a good idea how to do those things herself.
As technology advanced, more and more people moved into more specialized and white collar occupations, and ESPECIALLY as we got a significant number of second generation white collar workers, the ability to do the work for one’s self, to judge the quality and difficulty of the job done by others, or even to understand how their systems (HVAC, automobile, plumbing) work and which repairs might be necessary, optional, cheap or expensive has become completely lost. This has left many people at the mercy of tradesmen.
I looked at an older semi-detached bungalow in Toronto a few years back. The owner had started a reno by taking out the basement floor, and gutting the interior to the bricks and rafters, including the party wall, which was merely plaster and lath over 2×4. Then he stopped and left it for a year or two. The result being that the only thing separating the neighbour (a schoolteacher) from the great outdoors was the layer of P&L on her side of the party wall. It boggled my mind that she could be paying such astronomical heating bills for an 850′ house and not realize that there was a problem.
@ #3 Sheane Wallace, 40 year mortgages were introduced in 2006 and eliminated in early 2009. They were not introduced during the correction, they were eliminated during the correction. Big difference. That means 40 year mortgages cannot be blamed for the price increases that have happened since 2009.
Re: #119 Rational Optimist
The landing would be softened if the foreign money would make an important chunk of the housing. I think everyone agrees it’s not. Hipsters are very native (chuckle).
Instead, the weakening of the dollar would create inflation pressures on households, indeed, since not very much Canadian product is consumer oriented, furthering on the housing demise. I see it as a double whammy.
The immediate consumption decrease will also translate in the third part of the whammy, retail layoffs.
I cannot understand how BOC is constructing their “soft landing” prediction. Or, they are just trying to duct tape it…
Never fails to annoy me how people feel the need to brag about their lives in the comments and talk about how much smarter they are then other people, some people were driven into buying houses for legit reasons and pressure from their parents etc. A society where work work work and no time for thought and research (still though, kinda lazy) and misplaced trust in the Gov and banks, sigh.
There are so many people I know in the 20’s and early 30’s who have rental properties, it feels like 80% here in Calgary with the steadfast believe that its a special snowflake here, oil and gas will always be super hot, and people will always move here….
I think your stats are wrong about young people buying 800k houses, it is WAY to expensive, someone else covered these calculations in a previous post.
Here in Calgary its the Sub 400k houses that hardly exist anymore and are on bidding wars, I bet in Toronto its the Burbs that most normal working people without a “mere 50k$” downpayment live.
It doesn’t change the fact there is no affordability anymore hence the condo rush….then they move up a few years later and keep it as a rental, the strategy seems to work except for the risk factor.
#105 – See Vancouverpricedrop. April 14 and back……..
#108 Priced Out — “With 5% down, the mortgage should be $760000. The monthly payment on that amount with 3% interest is $3596. Add property taxes and utilities $700, add a car or two $1000 and they have to come up with $5296.”
No car! One of the funniest things I’ve read recently (sorry, no link) was a real estate pumper justifying the price of downtown homes by talking about the cost of car ownership. He estimated the cost for the monthly car payment, insurance, gasoline and parking at work, then converted that into how much mortgage it would pay at current rates, and ADDED that to the price of the house. So you should pay MORE for a downtown house with no garage or parking to equal the money you’ll save on the car. Look on your face when a Lexus driving realtor covers you in slush at the bus stop: Priceless!
If Canada could have picked two greater enemies…they would look long and hard to fing two more vicious adversaries than Barack Obama and Stephen Poloz. The BOC meat puppet is driven to cut Canada off at the knees and plunge us back into a third world economy where the elite prevails and everyone else can just ‘f’ off.
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/04/16/bank-of-canada-holds-rate-at-1/
Obozo is costing Canada an estimated 25billion every year of his ‘presidency with his anti Canada stance on cross border trade and the implementation of FACTA.
Meat Puppet Poloz is underfoot of big unions who want to see the dollar at .50 cents so that efficient manufacturing never touches our shores.
These along with our strangling civil service overburden are what makes this country the third world mess that it is. When will we relieve ourselves of these enemies of the Canadian people?
Also, the hipsters you mentioned put way more than 5% down for those 700-900k detach homes. Don’t confuse them with poor first time home buyer in the condo market.
And yes Toronto and Vancouver IS the market that matters.
Also – make it just for first-time buyers, and only for primary residence.
—
I would eliminate ALL incentives for first time buyers. Notice that EVERY level of government proclaims some kind of ‘goodie’ for first timers. These incentives, rebates, exclusions, exemptions etc are just a ‘happy face’ on a tax grab.
And of course they skew the entry level market.
http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2014/01/22/westend_house_attracts_32_bids_sells_for_210000_above_asking.html
Why haven’t you provided a link to your source? What’s up with using someone else’s graphs but not linking to him or properly citing him (at least giving the website)? It’s very hard to find a blog googling with “Aggregator” since there are so many aggregator websites.
As I said, posted in the comment section yesterday. Easy to find. — Garth
#91 CMHC does not buy houses. — Garth
The comment says “bought”, but I think it may refer to the house falling into foreclosure and CMHC paying the $1.5M owed to the lender, then selling the property for the $880,000 to recoup its money – but in this case, not getting all of it?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-canada-keeps-interest-rate-at-1-1.2611947
much ado about nothing.
#106 Roger-Home-Inspector – One of the best posts yet and one that I can totally relate to. Congrats.
#41 Smoking Man on 04.15.14 at 8:15 pm
OK my 26 fans, had 27 but one found religion… Had to turf them. I’m a secular psychopath…
Have 4 manuscripts,
1) Smokeys guide to millions fast.
Trading, business, lying, not playing fair, scoundrel, sales.
2) Losers Lounge, fiction adventure at a Las Vegas conversation University professors work shop. Selling plagiarizing software while on the run from the FBI
3) Autobiography… Boring, my family’s favorite.
4) Real-life drunkin things that happened to me on my worldly adventures.
Which should I launch first?
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
MKULTRA says you have nothing to write on the first three of the list but number four. Wow could you write a book about that! Then again you dont know half the stuff you have done or said while under the influence!
By The Way we are the guys in the black SUV, sitting down the street from you in Longbranch. Don’t worry we are just checking your programming.
You are always spouting about others and their programming when YOU are the original tax farm slave who was programmed by us.
Garth you know Harpo and Big Byrd…. Can you call em and tell them to shut up about Ukraine…
There making asses of themselves. Tank divisions of Ukraine solders are going into disputed cities and serenading, flying the Russian Flag on tanks.
They are with Russia, haven’t helped that they haven’t eaten in 4 days and the local Russians are feeding them.
The INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY LEADERS. AK, IMF have lost there marbles…
What part of The art of war by San Tuz where it clearly states know your enemies.. Did they not read.
Probably forgot to mark that part of the book with a yellow highlighter…
#122 Alistair McLaughlin
………………………..
correct, let’s blame instead of the 40 years the 35 years 5 percent down payment that followed (effective 0 down) and 1 % IRP as well as CMHC insuring everything under the sun, increasing it’s insured limits.
What we see today is aftershock from the 40 and 35 years mortgages.
The problem is that we will get the crash one way or another and while US used it’s ammunitions to reduce the impact from the housing crash we used ours to blow a bigger bubble.
There are 2 possible outcomes:
1. we keep negative interest rates low for a veeeeery long time (we will lie about it proclaiming there is no inflation) which will wipe out all savers, then we will increase taxes to support baby boomers in their retirement as well as reduce benefits.
2. we increase interest rates, reject CMHC insurance and let the banks fail. The problem is here we would need to print probably several hundred billions to cover deposits but at least will stop the vicious cycle with the currency devaluation.
The latest requires guts so it will not be done. Instead we will go with the former: deeper and debt with dollar loosing any value with near 0 interest rates at the same time.
Hedge accordingly.
In this second scenario people with houses will win.
We have two many indebted up to their eyeballs so we can not let them fail and will need to keep supporting them.
Garth at #105″ actually house prices are lower…Toronto to be the ‘market’.”
Well, let me be more specific then.
Do not extrapolate lower house prices and falling sales in other cities as a harbinger of what’s to come for Toronto.
The fact that house prices continue to rise in the GTA in most hoods , despite all the reasons why it should not ,must lead to a conclusion other than what you have been suggesting on this blog for the past 6 years and counting.
The GTA at this point has defied all your rationalization
That only adds to the risk. — Garth
Garth………I understand that loads of folks without pension plans or even defined contribution plans seem to have over 2/3rds of their theoretical wealth tied-up in principle residence bricks/mortar in the big cities and could be subject to heartburn in 10 yrs when the boomers rush to sell their homes en-masse to finance retirement.
..But I live in Ottawa where a disproportionately high number of owners have a gold plated public service pension plan..in 10 yrs these folks may not be compelled to sell their homes as they ride into retirement thanks to fat, indexed pensions paid for by the rest of us…so should I assume that the Ottawa market will not suffer the same level of correction (fewer boomers flooding the market at the same time) as per GTA or Vancouver when the boomers provide their retirement notices in 8 or 10 yrs time????
As this is part of the plan people with mortgages will be encouraged as they ‘support’ the economy.
While saving vehicle holders (RRSP, TFSA) could be surprised probably 10 years down the road by 2 options:
1. Either confiscation of funds compensated by ‘fair’ government pension based on severely understated inflation at the age of 75 (yes we will work with a diaper if lucky to find work)
or
2. Mandatory allocation of 50 % of all savings in 1 percent bearing government bonds with inflation north of 8 %
Smoking Man we will be waiting for you at Seneca tonight. Look for the suits.
How to get Rich…
Man who spends all income each year and does not invest, can never accumulate wealth
Man who borrows to buy house and eventually pays it off ends up with wealth equal to value of house.
Man who invests in ways other than house may become far richer than house owner if his investments return more than house investment would. (Bank share investor, for example). These people are very rare. Investors tend to be home owners. There may be times, possibly today, when this strategy is the most logical.
Man who buys and pays off house and who invests beyond that, over a working lifetime, is likely to accumulate significant wealth.
I picked door number four. To each his own.
#141 Big Brother on 04.16.14 at 1:38 pm
That was good, you have my attention…..
Wow, never told anyone that…
@ #142 shawn on 04.16.14 at 1:38 pm
Took door #3. So far so good ;)
I have to say shawn, I love bank shares!
Best,
HD
Game over.
Canadian real estate and housing boom may be ending, Scotiabank warns
http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2014/04/16/canadian_real_estate_and_housing_boom_may_be_ending_scotiabank_warns.html#
@ #137 Sheane Wallace, correct on all counts. The CMHC should not exist, and it should be normal and expected that one should have a minimum 20% down before purchasing a house. That’s the way it used to be and funny thing, we never had housing bubbles back then. We’ve gotten way too fast and loose with credit, and ultra-low interest rates have just exacerbated that problem. Which is why I still rent. Rent a nice 3BR in Orleans for less than $1500 per month. I’ll keep renting until housing returns to more reasonable levels. When will that be? No idea.
#138- Garth- “that only adds to risk”
Most financial markets are up anywhere from 1 to 100’s of percent over same 6 years so I guess we have ” added to risk there as well”.
Yet u do not advocate the same hyperbole level of prudence there ?!
And spare us the re balancing act as an RE agent could simply advocate same with various RE property variations.
The fact is risk abounds everywhere and no crystal ball yet exists .
I have been clear on the risks posed by financial markets, which is why sane people use balance, doversification and quarterly rebalancing (which is not practical among properties). — Garth
126 Ralph Cramdown on 04.16.14 at 11:35 am
“One of the funniest things I’ve read recently (sorry, no link) was a real estate pumper justifying the price of downtown homes by talking about the cost of car ownership.”
People are senseless not to include the cost of transportation into their decision-making process when choosing a home. If the place you are thinking of moving to results in a longer commute, that is an ongoing expense that should be deducted from what you are willing to spend on that place.
Owning a car is going to be about $10,000 a year. Not a nice car. Yes, you can do it for less, but most people do it for more without realizing it. If you move to a far-flung suburb, and have to buy an extra car as a result, your new residential decision has created a liability equal to $10,000 every year. In that situation, the house cost a lot more than you think.
Garth posted the ad comparing condo and car maintenance. Pretty bad, but sillier to forget about the huge cost of transportation. If a house creates a transportation expense, it should be worth less to you. On the flip side, if it reduces a transportation expense, it should be worth more to you.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/end-of-housing-boom-will-be-costly-scotiabank-warns-1.2612405
#119 Rational Optimist on 04.16.14 at 10:59 am wrote:
An older uncle of mine responded to this by saying that a falling dollar would be good if it means inflation because real estate goes up with inflation. I guess I agree that it does, since your home should be worth roughly what an equivalent pile of new lumber and drywall would cost, plus the labour to glue it together.
Not quite. You forgot the cost of the plot of land to build it on. In downtown Toronto or Vancouver that can dwarf the other costs that you mentioned.
Nice Planet Dude!
Sheane Wallace, you live on an interesting planet. Certainly you are not describing Canada now or in the future.
#142 Shawn – let’s not forget about Woman.
Ceaser is going on about how the Govt printed tons of money out of thin air (which only helped large corporations) in a speech about F. Your hearing it from Ceasers mouth. Money paid back by granny working at Timmies or Chinamart all the while RBC gets bailed out and Govt Workers make 100K a year with benefits and gold plated pensions.
Welcome to Canada.
#142 shawn on 04.16.14 at 1:38 pm
What’s the evidence for door number three being rare? I’ve spent two decades behind this door, travelling the world (43 countries and counting), renting, working and saving and investing. I’ve now moved half-way through door number 4 [though I’m building my own house on raw land] but this is only rational to me after building up the investment fund via renting and having had a decade of international experiences.
The problem with choosing door number 2 or 4 right off the bat is that you are trapped where you live and never get to experience the rest of the world except on short two week holiday permitted by your boss to a beach where you learn three words in Spanish or in retirement when you need to pull the oxygen tank off the tour bus at the Vatican.
Door number 3 is the ticket. So maybe you are correct in that it’s rarely choosen. To each his own indeed.
152 Ronaldo on 04.16.14 at 3:19 pm
#142 Shawn – let’s not forget about Woman.
—————————————
+1
Best,
HD
These along with our strangling civil service overburden are what makes this country the third world mess that it is. When will we relieve ourselves of these enemies of the Canadian people?
———————————————————–
When people have lost everything, and have nothing left to lose, they lose it – Gerald Celente
And you are seeing it. Ukraine, Nevada, Spain, Venezuela, Thailand, France, Argentina.
It’s just that the Main Slime Media either does not cover it or calls everyone “terrorists” because they are fighting govt tyranny.
What do you think Nevada did? It emboldened people. And I guarantee you the US Govt is shitting its pants being as they are outnumbered 100-1. My husband’s US partner is an Iraq veteran 2003-2005. He killed people while in his infantry unit. He will be the first one to tell you that the day the US Govt brings in some kind of Marshall Law is the day the Govt has stepped on a land mine.
Yeah yeah…..I’m a nutbar, right wing or some wing blah blah blah…….I’ll be thinking of you 100K a year white collar guys/govt workers (pencil pushers) when things finally start to fall apart financially and their is no money or jobs for your pencil pushing professions.
151 Shawn
………………………………..
It pays to look at trends, not to be confused by the smoke and mirror.
BTW we already see the beginning of all this, just look at MYIRA in US.
Our future is somebody else’s past, you just need to take the red pill. Stop watching TV.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/bank-of-canada-holds-steady-on-rate-hiking-timing/article18037146/
And the bank reiterated that while it expects a “soft landing” of the domestic housing market, household debt remains high and “would pose a significant risk should economic conditions deteriorate.”
The housing market has already begun to cool in many key markets across the country.
151 Shawn
………………………..
The magicians started pulling rabbits out of their hats. Suddenly there are mysterious buyers out of Belgium for Spanish, US, Italian bonds at record low interest rates.
Who is buying?
It is a game of musical chairs. When the music stops,
guess who would be holding the bag.
#87 Nemesis on 04.16.14 at 1:12 am
#Hipsters #HotSessions&Hormones #ParentHood #AdviceToWriters #BeginAgain #ComingAttractions
http://youtu.be/uTRCxOE7Xzc
[NoteToSaltyCinephiles: Catherine Keener was once a McDonald’s restaurant manager in NYC before her career as a CastingDirector got started… and after that? The rest, as they say, “…was history.” Is there enough MagicUnderTheMoonlight for you, too? “This really is a bit of a LongShot, isn’t it?” – “Absolutely. That’s when the Magic happens.” http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0001416/bio?ref_=nm_ov_bio_sm ]
Me – you’re giving me a headache.
Could you please go away already.
I hope this EBOLA outbreak in Africa stops spreading because if it doesn’t then the price of Canadian housing will be the least of our worries.
Ebola kills 70% of everyone who contracts it.
Imagine Canada with 7 out of every 10 people dead or dying? Yuck!
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/gambia-passengers-ebola-hit-areas-23320074
http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/health-headlines/west-africa-ebola-outbreak-toll-increases-mali-tests-negative-1.1776327
Smoking Man is that you?
http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/rcmp-charge-19-year-old-man-in-heartbleed-privacy-breach-1.1778934
get a guy you get along with to give a second opinion – better a few young (28y olds) that know how to write…plenty of talented girls out there
#110 Smoking Man on 04.16.14 at 10:21 am
#124 Alex “oil and gas will always be super hot”
Uhh, until it runs out.
Have you heard about what’s going on in YYC right now? Baker Hughes is closing functional units left, right and centre. Completely closed their Medicine Hat operations. Closed the fabrication shop in Calgary yesterday. Hundreds and hundreds out of work.
No rumor — immediate family works there (for now). Boom and Bust for YYC is more appropriate.
Roger the home inspector, reference post #106:
I basically agree that it is best to do as much as possible yourself and where I thought I could do so, I have always tried to fix, repair, sort out, install, paint, and so on by myself. It is possible to save a lot of money that way.
The only flaw in this approach though is that for some things that are either critical and thus require specialized knowledge, or that are downright dangerous if done wrong, it is usually been my experience that it pays to get someone to do it that knows what he or she is doing.
For example, I no longer bleed my own car brakes. With ABS, stability controls, sensors up the wazoo, and other complexities, I get a mechanic to do it because they have the special tools and I have at least some assurance that they have done it more than once and have done so successfully. I also no longer replace brake rotors or pads for the same reasons. You may want to stop and think about this.
Likewise, when it comes to the kind of expertise that Garth has, I find it a much better plan and much more satisfying to pay a financial advisor a fee to take care of that part of my affairs. And one only has to look at the extensive skills and depth of talent that Garth and his team can deploy. Let’s put it this way: I would rather declare war on the Russkies (at least the ones hiding under my bed at night) than try to do what a fee-based advisor does. Seriously, life is too short. I admire what they do but I would not wish this job upon even the most curmudgeonly amongst us.
On the other side of this coin, I also sell my services as a freelance IT consultant and while I have benefitted materially from the efforts of others that make such a big fricken’ mess and then have to call me in to fix things up, I also know that if everyone tried to do what I do for themselves, then I would have a serious shortage of beer money and you can just forget about pretzels anytime soon. More the point, in a services-based economy, I make money, I pay people to do things that I need done, they make money, and so on and so forth. Birds gotta’ fly, fish gotta’ swim, and I gotta’ eat. I certainly don’t begrudge others who many also wish to partake of the bounty.
#148 Rational Optimist — “People are senseless not to include the cost of transportation into their decision-making process when choosing a home. If the place you are thinking of moving to results in a longer commute, that is an ongoing expense that should be deducted from what you are willing to spend on that place.”
I agree completely. In fact, I think many people undervalue their time and gas money when thinking about a place to live. But this agent was suggesting that essentially all the economic benefits of a carless lifestyle should go to the person you bought your house from; that you should be completely indifferent beyond economics as to whether you own a car or not.
Um, so… is “Gen F” Generation F**ked?
I saw the state funeral today and when F’s son said his dad loved Canada it brought tears to my eyes; not from sadness but from laughter. Perhaps, he knows naught about the unholy alliance that took place, as they rolled the dice in a huge game of deception with a couple of big institutions in USA. I am not talking entirely about the investment trust scenario either or the hidden exemption given to hoop us for $billions either.
#162 – Waterloo Resident:
One of my weirder hobbies is a fascination with nasty infectious diseases… especially those with pandemic potential.
Don’t sweat Ebola in the west – really. Yes it’s a bloody awful illness & death. If anything the film ‘Outbreak’ which was entirely based on Ebola downplayed some of the symptoms.
Luckily for us, you can’t catch it from someone until they actually develop symptoms & even a case that’s initially mild, (for Ebola), precludes much other than groaning in bed & moving as little as possible. If you’ve ever had flu – not stomach flu, not a bad cold but a genuine case of INFLUENZA… that’s how hard Ebola hits initially.
It’s a direct contact disease – unless you’re touching someone who has it & their body fluids or anything they’ve touched without mask, gown, gloves… you’re fine. Our burial practices do not include handling the dead, weeping over their bodies, kissing them & cleaning/dressing them ourselves. We do not reuse syringes & needles in hospital settings. We have isolation protocols.
At some point we WILL see a case or two in North America – someone flies home from an area experiencing an outbreak & they’ll become ill. Members of their household may get sick too & if they developed symptoms while flying home, anyone near them on the plane, aircraft – all will have to be closely watched. So… we could end up with one or more SMALL clusters of cases.
But it won’t spread much at all. Unless it learns to go airborne.
THAT would be an entirely different nightmare. The only strain so far known to do that – Ebola Reston – doesn’t make people sick.
#156 World According To Garth on 04.16.14 at 3:38 pm
These along with our strangling civil service overburden are what makes this country the third world mess that it is. When will we relieve ourselves of these enemies of the Canadian people?
———————————————————–
When people have lost everything, and have nothing left to lose, they lose it – Gerald Celente
And you are seeing it. Ukraine, Nevada, Spain, Venezuela, Thailand, France, Argentina.
It’s just that the Main Slime Media either does not cover it or calls everyone “terrorists” because they are fighting govt tyranny.
What do you think Nevada did? It emboldened people. And I guarantee you the US Govt is shitting its pants being as they are outnumbered 100-1. My husband’s US partner is an Iraq veteran 2003-2005. He killed people while in his infantry unit. He will be the first one to tell you that the day the US Govt brings in some kind of Marshall Law is the day the Govt has stepped on a land mine.
Yeah yeah…..I’m a nutbar, right wing or some wing blah blah blah…….I’ll be thinking of you 100K a year white collar guys/govt workers (pencil pushers) when things finally start to fall apart financially and their is no money or jobs for your pencil pushing professions.
Me- I will tell you what i will do when if ‘m destitute in Canaduh.
I will take it to the streets and TAKE whats rightfully mine.
Wait for it, it’s coming. Houses that are priced for bidding wars are now going their lowball listings. Pity the poor sellers in Toronto wo are listing their shacks for $500,000, hoping for $800,000 and then having to take $350,000
Add Jimmy Carter ( Mr Peanut) to the list of American enemies of the Canadian state.
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2014/4/16/Jimmy-Carter-urges-rejecting-Keystone-first-US-ex-president-to-do-so.aspx
How dare they propose to tell Canadians what to do with our economy? Are Americans an example to anyone…on anything? We have California and New York billionaires reaping hundreds of billions of dollars of tax payer money to build obsolete wind farms on subsidies alone…only to abandon them when the subsidies dry up. We have Euro billionaires shorting Canadian oil companies for nothing but greed. We have Arabs and Americans ( whats the difference any more?) who don’t want any competition in the oil business and want to keep Canadian oil and gas cheap for themselves while they profit elsewhere.
Screw the so called anti oil sands bozo’s…..sucking up to the American/Arab/Wind Farm lobbies will force us all towards 100% taxation in the future. Do these people not know that Americans funding dozens of protest groups and native tribal councils will not create an economy for Canadians? The Americans and Arabs think that by propping up hundreds of two and three man protest groups who advertise and hire lawyers with American money that it will appear that there is a united front against Canadian interests….nothing could be further from the truth.
If you want to vote for an impoverished citizenry living in tee pees then get behind all the anxious people willing to come to this country for a better life….you have abused the privilege of your passport.
#120 real life in calgary
… not applicable to Calgary, unless 1)interest rates skyrocket, 2)job loss, 3)lack of people wanting to buy houses in Calgary…
Two out of three are already on the way to become applicable.
#173 airhead princess – on my way back from Florida years ago with the girlfriend, we turned off the interstate for Plains, Georgia. She wanted to meet his brother Billy, and it was a peanut of a village as there was nothing to see but a few old buildings. We found the gas station that was train wreck with a couple of red necks drinking beer in the car lift area. They said he ain’t here ya oil = you all, and off we went back to the interstate and was not too happy. I must learn to say no, but she was the boss lady!
#175 jan on 04.16.14 at 7:37 pm
QE could collapse world currencies according latest report.
Something you have denied could happen for years.
Any comments sir Garth.
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
Could it be the hipsters get it and we don’t by levering up to the teeth on cheap fiat money to purchase tangible assets such as real estate.
Just a thought.
#HeHeHe
http://youtu.be/46czFv7T04g
I find it very interesting how certain government mandates skew markets and behaviour. CMHC is a great case in point. If there was no government backed mortgage insurance, what would the terms be the private sector came up with? 5% down% Or would it be 20%? Why is a million the right limit? I remember when I bought my first house, it was about $175,000. And that wasn’t that long ago, I think it was 1997. Now $175 won’t buy anything, but back then that’s all the gubbermint thought a first time buyer needed.
What would happen if the government decided $500k was probably enough for first time buyers to be spending? Would the 501-1000k market go to the crickets like the $1million market?
How fast would people drive if there weren’t speed limits? Would they go faster, or slower? How do you know 100kmh is safe? Why not 120? Speed kills, but only if you have an accident. Some people think it doesn’t but the energy of impact is m times v-squared, so crushing damage goes up at the square of speed not linearly.
Smoking laws are another good example. The natives love them because all the smokers go to the casinos on the reserves where there aren’t rules about such things.
NYCer : I think CMHC should be lowered even further.
Why $1M, or why is it even existing anymore?
CMHC is the bedrock of the Canadian Housing Market. Without it the market would stop dead in its tracks. Supposing the Government were to halt all future transactions, the political blowback would destroy the political party in power but the Conservatives cut the opposition off at the knees by suddenly canceling CMHC insurance for houses above $ 1 million because they are beyond the reach of the average man – and the average woman. The opposition parties could hardly plead the case for the rich.
So given the success of the $1 million cancellation, further tightening is warranted. Like 10% down on houses over $900,000.
#4 Derek: You forgot IBIL = Idiot Brother in Law
All these young deluded home buyers need the services of a personal coach and therapist, like me: http://www.cherylkeates.com
Just want to add one millenial voice that does not think as those described above. My husband and I are at the oldest end of the millenial generation, we are not attracted to buying a house right now, even though we could pay for something modest in cash (we don’t live in TO or Van, though) . We love being tenants, any trouble gets fixed up on someone else’s dime and trouble within a few days, we can leave our building if bad neighbors move in, or leave our city if an interesting job comes up elsewhere. Luckily our families leave us alone, and we have no problems answering simply with “no” when our friends ask us if we are thinking of buying a house soon. Our fairly conservative portfolios have done well over the last several years, and we are happy with what we have. We’ll buy one day when we truly want to settle down. I admit none of our friends think this way, but there must be more of us out there.
#180 Alberta Guy on 04.16.14 at 9:05 pm wrote:
#4 Derek: You forgot IBIL = Idiot Brother in Law
Cheers, Alberta Guy. Thing is that Garth always spells it out in full, and idiot brothers-in-law are pretty common, so I thought everyone would know what that one meant.
But if he starts abbreviating it to IBIL, I’ll certainly add it to the list.