Live with it

DUCKS modified

The Big Owe, as we now understand, will do diddly about the mortgage wars. Thus are the Oliver years begun. The new finance minister is throwing in the towel on a real estate market now largely out of control, hoping the day of reckoning’s delayed until after the 2015 federal election.

Uh-huh. Another profile in courage. Canadians will be encouraged by BeeMo and its clones to borrow more because money’s cheap. More bidding wars for saggy semis. More price inflation. More risk.

Blowing into this real estate gasbag now seems like the only economic strategy on the table. Judging by a spat of anti-Garth comments on this blog lately, I’d say more people are capitulating – willing to dive into houses, despite the staggering cost. Either they’ve bought into the ‘buy now or buy never’ mantra, or they simply can’t stand the stigma of renting (at less cost) and the social pressure to conform.

Interesting, this is the same crowd that runs screaming from a stock market at record levels (‘it’s bound to crash!’) but embraces a house – and its massive debt – at exactly the same point (‘it’s different this time’). Ah well. You’ve been warned. Now live with it.

And what about these mortgage rates? If you want money, how should you borrow?

Well, five-year variable-rate loans are available for as little as 2.35%, but with five-year fixed mortgages now at 2.99% (and four-years at 2.7%), it’s hardly worth the additional risk. Without question, interest rates will be higher by 2019, likely (say most bank economists) by about 2%. As the prime swells, every VRM puffs right along with it, which means higher payments or more debt at the end of the term.

Ten-year? Nope, also not worthy. The cheapest is 4.4%, which constitutes a big premium. You are always better to borrow cheap on the mortgage, then divert your extra cash flow into quality financial investments which can grow, giving you more cash to throw against the house at renewal time.

By the way, regarding the BMO 2.99 special, remember this is a no-frills deal. You are totally locked into it for five years (no getting out unless you refinance with the bank or sell and pay a penalty); pre-payment privileges are less; no HELOC; no payment skips; and lower annual lump sums. If you want more flexibility, then don’t be so cheap.

***

Garth Turner Ankle X-ray 1 modified

Yesterday I came around the corner into the living room. Bandit opened one eye, started furious tail-wagging, jumped to his feet and launched joyously into my chest.

I was standing.

Ten weeks after I crumpled on the January ice beside him, my foot snapped from my leg, eight weeks after surgery (yeah, that’s my ankle above), and four weeks into S&M physiotherapy, I took my first steps. Teetering on my cane, all I needed was an 85-pound Chow ricocheting off my thorax. Happily, we landed in a chair together, my face washed with copious amounts of sticky dog spit delivered by a foot-long purple tongue.

For two months Bandit artfully jumped out of the way when he heard the thump of approaching crutches, and learned to lie millimetres from my wheelchair without getting his paws run over. Every morning he’d test me on going for a walk. Every morning I would decline, tell him why and hand the lead to Dorothy.

Tomorrow we walk. Slow, short, halting, painful. Can’t wait.

239 comments ↓

#1 bdy sktrn on 03.28.14 at 5:22 pm

good luck on your first steps

#2 Smoking Man on 03.28.14 at 5:24 pm

Ha, you fall down, you get up again. Down, Up… It’s life till the day you kick the bucket.

Better to decompose on the down cycle. Would suck to win a lottery, and get hit by a car after you deposit your loot.

Baby steps Sir Garths a lot.

#3 gladiator on 03.28.14 at 5:26 pm

So then, the RE market will still be on fire till 2015.
Bidding wars galore in GTA this spring!
I’m crawling back to my (rented) hole. Nothing interesting to see till next year.

#4 jan on 03.28.14 at 5:30 pm

Looks like you’re healing well my man.
Btw – are you ready to capitulate on this whole RE craziness that is our country?

#5 The Peg on 03.28.14 at 5:32 pm

Remember Garth, baby steps…

#6 DocInWaitingRoom on 03.28.14 at 5:35 pm

Wow I can see you did a good job breaking your leg. Glad you are well on your way to full recovery keep in there

#7 Andrewski on 03.28.14 at 5:36 pm

Our family also had Chows, 1 was an awesome dog, while the other Chow was a bit loopy, but we loved them both.

On another note, RBC released another of their awful “Principal Protected Guaranteed Return Enhanced Yield LEOS” investments, “RBC1150 INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
Income Potential: Minimum Coupon of 3.00%, to a maximum of 6.00% in Years 1 and 2. Annual coupon in
years 3-6, if any, is based on the performance of the Shares in the Equity Portfolio where performance per
Share is measured from inception to each annual coupon valuation date, subject to a maximum of 6.00%
and a minimum of -10%. The maximum annual coupon of 6.00% is paid if all Shares appreciate from
inception to the annual coupon valuation date. Notes do not represent an interest in the securities of the
companies that comprise the Equity Portfolio, and holders will have no right or entitlement to such
securities including the dividend paid on these securities. The annual dividend yield on the Equity Portfolio
as of March 12, 2014 was 2.96%, representing an aggregate dividend yield of approximately 19.13%
annually compounded over the six year term, on the assumption that the dividend yield remains constant.
Principal Protection: Royal Bank of Canada guarantees the principal amount at maturity. RBC is rated
Aa3 by Moody’s, AA- by Standard and Poors and AA by DBRS.
Liquidity: The Notes are tradeable in a daily secondary market, subject to availability, which RBC
Capital Markets will use reasonable efforts to provide as outlined in the Information Statement. An early
trading charge may apply (initially 3.25%, reducing to 0% after 540 days). Proceeds on sale may be less
than the $100 Principal Amount.
Registered Account Eligible: RRSPs, RDSPs, RESPs, TFSAs and DPSPs.”

Are investors actually buying this crap?!

#8 jan on 03.28.14 at 5:38 pm

#164 Almost A Boomer on 03.28.14 at 5:02 pm
This week in the Star a personal advice columnist was asked by a twenty something adult child for help with boomer parents (late fifties) who have no savings, poorly paid jobs and are having trouble making ends meet; and, we received a flyer from a builder in Stouffville offering 0% mortgages on $500,000 homes with a 90 day closing. I feel sorry for all of the people who are going to be clobbered shortly.

Me – don’t be sorry for anyone.
It is you who is going to be clobbered for being a contrarian in an insane country.

#9 refi'd on 03.28.14 at 5:46 pm

wait a minute Garth. ok, so what you’re telling me is that the 33×90 ft lot I purchased 2 years ago in E.Van and the 25ft container I refurbished with stainless toaster oven, stainless mini-bar fridge and stainless coleman bbq grill, will not be worth $1.3M by next year!!? for crying out loud, I even put the reno’d unit width wise so that the parking space would be maximized for multi-family use!

#10 jess on 03.28.14 at 5:50 pm

Obama meets with Saudi king

…do ya think the saudi’s will drive down the oil price
like they did when russian invaded afghanistan/

#11 Pope RedHotChiliSnugglebums the 666ie (aka Nosty) on 03.28.14 at 5:54 pm

“For two months Bandit artfully jumped out of the way when he heard the thump of approaching crutches, and learned to lie millimetres from my wheelchair without getting his paws run over.”

Hah! Been there, done that. Coma for fourteen days (no life support) and wheelchair for two + months before I had to learn to walk again.

Still paralyzed on the right half of the body and partly (legally) blind in both eyes, but I’m retired!
*
#16 Steve on 03.27.14 at 8:13 pm — Well said! Less is more.

#35 Nemesis on 03.27.14 at 9:17 pm
— and —
#65 HD on 03.27.14 at 11:04 pm — “But if you mean that Karma is this mysterious force that will assure that everything will get ‘even’ no matter what in this generation, next generation, the after life or whatever….I respectfully call baloney on that.”
— plus —
#85 Buy? Curious? on 03.28.14 at 5:31 am — “I know no one can predict the future, but everyone can see the past.”

Good day, HD, Nemesis and Buy? Curious?

All will prove this reality to themselves, regardless of whatever path they are on, on the second heaven, the Causal Plane or Level (the spiritual law of Cause and Effect, positive and negative karma or ‘An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth’), at the conclusion of these short, temporary physical lifecycles we currently enjoy.

BTW, the Akashic Records and Time Track are there as well. The AR and TT allows individuals to review past lives on this outer, lowest physical level, the Astral and Causal Planes, but not beyond that. Good conversation!

Best, Nosty

#95 maxx on 03.28.14 at 8:18 am — “Solvency is then no longer a problem.”

Correct. Stupidity is the problem now but there is no cure for stupidity. It is contagious, ‘tho!

#116 Smoking Man on 03.28.14 at 10:14 am — “Ground control to Tim….”

Actually, it’s ‘Ground Control to Major Tom’, but Tim the Enchanter from Monty Python will do!

#131 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.28.14 at 12:08 pm — “We can track a flight from England to Toronto ‘real time’ on a mobile phone and yet Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 can disappear without any trace. Not since the Bermuda triangle . . .”
— and —
#158 tkid on 03.28.14 at 4:06 pm — “MH370 never invoked an emergency, and their first instinct would not have been to pull fuses, it would have been to call the emergency. Instead they waited until they were in airspace where they would be incommunicado for a period of time and then took evasive maneuvers. They never called a panpan or a mayday. These actions are suspicious and in my opinion highly suspicious.” Couple of suggestions — Soros, Israel and New info?
*
Lies No troop build up, Scientist withdraws (CC), Hub (Germany – Yuan), Corporate Annexation (Ukraine) and IMF exposed “Russia is not the bad guy here. The money-junkies in those private central banks are.” wrh.com.

#12 LH on 03.28.14 at 5:58 pm

I would vouch for the 2.35% VRM (5 year term, but variable rate)

Why? No nasty prepayment penalties (penalty is just 3 months interest, not some complicated and proprietary bank formula designed to suck customers dry)

With short 1-4 year mortgages there is the hassle of renewing, and always the risk of the bank refusing to extend (loss of job, crash in RE market, etc). Why not take a 5-year term if you can?

For this reason, 6/7 of my mortgages are floating rate. (one was a 3Y fixed with CIBC with a juicy cash back that made it effectively ~2.3% or so)

LH

#13 Ilona on 03.28.14 at 6:01 pm

“No pain, no gain”? :)

Really nice post – thank you! :)

#14 Mean Gene on 03.28.14 at 6:01 pm

Sounds like the Big Owe is buying votes.

#15 Progress on 03.28.14 at 6:04 pm

I’m glad to hear that your health is progressing and hope you have a fully recovery as soon as is possible.

Alwyn

#16 Alberta Ed on 03.28.14 at 6:12 pm

Sorry to hear the Big Owe has joined the property pimps. I had hoped for a genuine finance minister with a backbone AND balls, this time around. Maybe we’ll see 40 year mortgages and 0% down again.

#17 Mishuko on 03.28.14 at 6:14 pm

Rate cut by a clone5 is to take a marginally small loss on 20% of the duration of the loan when they know they can jack the rate 2 fold when it’s renew time.

The gullible will see this as a super steal or a ‘favor’ by the bank offering a rate lower than prime. Oh well!

I enjoy the music, but does anyone else appreciate the beauty of silence?

#18 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.28.14 at 6:20 pm

@ #3 gladiator on 03.28.14 at 5:26 pm
So then, the RE market will still be on fire till 2015.
Bidding wars galore in GTA this spring!
I’m crawling back to my (rented) hole. Nothing interesting to see till next year.
—————————

I think that the suburbs and/or condos could start crashing this year… all depends where you live.

#19 Jason on 03.28.14 at 6:20 pm

Glad you’re doing better Garth. Slowly but surely right?

I sold in Toronto 2 years ago and now live in Van. Plan was to buy, but once the wife and I got here and started looking, wow, what a rip off. Have friends who live close by and they keep asking if we ever plan on owning again. We looked at their development and chose not to; $700K for a townhouse. Nice place but not for us.

Now they are dealing with leaky roofs and the development is only 2 years old. I think the 2-5-10 warranty will cover it but the fact they have to go through this on a new build is more reason for us NOT to buy.

Plus we are debt free and mobile. When our furry baby passes we’re headed to France or maybe Spain or South America somewhere.

Life is good so why be tied down?

#20 mitzerboy on 03.28.14 at 6:35 pm

Bandit will help you to heal garth….in more
ways than one…. good luck to you soul rebel

#21 Happy Renting on 03.28.14 at 6:35 pm

So happy to hear that you are walking! An unhurried stroll with your dog is one of the best things in life. Enjoy, Garth, and thank you for the update.

I think the renter blog dogs need a way to form a support group. Too many of them seem without like-minded friends and surrounded by house humpers. I understand the urge to capitulate but even if the bubble never bursts I enjoy not being house poor. Easier to weather life’s ups and downs.

#22 waiting on 03.28.14 at 6:39 pm

Bandit – Heel!
Garth – Heal!

#23 Soylent Green is People on 03.28.14 at 6:42 pm

A B.C. landscaper has found a way to avoid a big mortgage and still live in the house of her dreams: she built it herself.

The self-employed Feenstra had always toyed with the idea of designing her own home, but it didn’t become a real goal until an offer to buy a traditional house fell through in 2012. The day before the deal closed, she was asked to provide a bigger down payment, which she couldn’t afford.

“I started thinking, do I really want a $300,000 mortgage? Do I really want to have roommates? How much space do I really need?” she said. “I realized I didn’t actually need very much, I just needed some place to call home and I was really, really done with renting.”

And because the tiny house is within road restrictions for a mobile home, Feenstra doesn’t need a construction permit.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/03/21/tiny-house-on-wheels-abbotsford_n_5003376.html

http://dragonlilygardens.com/in-the-media-jb/

http://dragonlilygardens.com/about-plfh/

http://dragonlilygardens.com/jack-in-a-box-pics/a1kgsm73rjqkntwp7pvw4ue11axgjh

@kaylafeenstra

.

#24 Retired Boomer - WI on 03.28.14 at 6:53 pm

Loving RE will cause long term agony, loving your pet never will.
Enjoy tomorrows historic walk. We are all cheering for ya!

Forget the ones who lust after real estate, even at today’s prices. You have done your best to warn them about diversification, the rule of 90.
Prices have gone up. and may still grow further, maybe much further. Stretching to reach those high costs, with the cost of money set to rise only makes me think today’s buyer will be tomorrow’s roast Turkey.

Would you enjoy some stuffing with your roast Turkey?

The turkeys are lining up now for roasting Garth, nothing further here to be done. I feel for the dodo birds

#25 Freedom First on 03.28.14 at 7:01 pm

Garth, if I had any emotions, what you wrote about standing and walking without crutches, would have brought tears to my eyes. Smart dog, your Bandit, he knew instantly the significance of seeing you standing again. Congrats Garth, way to tough it out!

The Big Owe Canada. H&O. looks like we’re now getting HO’d instead of F’d. In CMHC we trust. What we are about to witness in Canada will be referred to for decades to come. And not in a good way. $$$$$hit!

#26 gut check on 03.28.14 at 7:02 pm

#23 Soylent Green is People

I don’t know what it is, but that whole Tiny House thing really gets my radar up. WTF? Exactly WHY would anyone want that – permanent camping. Nowhere to run. Can you imagine having to have spent from November til now in one of those things?

And why are the websites so sketchy? Why so few real details and pictures? What’s the scam and who is running it? the ads were literally all over Kijiji for the longest time.. probably still are but I haven’t looked in a while.

Creepy.

#27 Andy on 03.28.14 at 7:08 pm

History will repeat itself. At least you tried to help. Please keep up the posts. This is one of my favorite blogs. Thank you!

It’s not about being right. It’s about informing a balanced view.

Take it real easy on your leg but yes get out there and enjoy the walks! Best of luck!

#28 Smoking Man on 03.28.14 at 7:12 pm

Did Herb Die?

I miss his chirping…

Herd let’s us know your above ground….

Ying Yang 10pm @ 360 club, Falls View….

#29 Andrew Woburn on 03.28.14 at 7:12 pm

One small step for a dog; one giant leap for Garth. Good to hear.

#30 TRT on 03.28.14 at 7:21 pm

For the last time, Interest rates are not going up for decades!

Not in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2017 and not in “2019” !!

raising them would decimate Canada. What political part would do that???

As I’ve always said, they will destroy the currency before ever raising rates!

And do the lemmings really believe inflation may slip into deflation?? hahaha. Joke is on you. Its probably running 10% year over year!

Canadian dollar has gone down 10%…so imported goods are more expensive. Domestically, the Conservatives are creating monopolies all over the place –>

–> Duopoly for domestic airline travel.
–> Telecom Ogilopoly.
—> Gasoline Collusion.
—> 5 big banks owning CMHC and Finance Ministry.
—> etc.

Winners: Garth-like people who invest in equities.

Losers: The majority of the population.

Cause: Vertical integration allowed by Ottawa. Example –>Wait until Wesjet and AC get a hold of the international airports. It is going to happen. You will need a mortgage to travel!

The government foes not set central bank interest rates. They will obviously rise here as they do in the US. — Garth

#31 Rocko on 03.28.14 at 7:34 pm

If anyone has ever held on to a stock that was going through an unsustainable run up in price only to hope that the party won’t end, entirely for the sake of greed, you know what you are getting into with housing. I’ve played with penny stocks and been burnt pretty bad. Learned a lesson though, sentiment drives prices at those levels, just like it does with real estate. Since I moved to a balance portfolio of companies that actually turn a profit, things are on the up and up.

Being a renter makes you a rebel. Transient and free from the strongholds of societal stucco. I put those extras into investments. I go on holidays 3-4 times a year, Japan, Dominican, Thailand all on the horizon this year. I save like you wouldn’t believe. My wife’s income is straight savings. Our dishwasher crapped out last month…instead of shelling out $500 for a new one I just made a phone call to my landlord and a new one showed up the next day…sweet!

The majority really are greater fools. I hope they enjoy their backyard ‘staycations’ because that’s the only place the can afford to go. lol.

#32 Smoking Man on 03.28.14 at 7:38 pm

We have the perfect environment to make a hockey stick regarding real estate..

Carney and F gone. A Fed election in 2015.

Export crazy low dollar BOC
governor.

A new Finance Minister how does what he’s told.

Low rates. A spring Market. Huge spike coming, then calm….

Threat of rates going up, another huge spike, and that’s the one you want to upload on..

Fix up them houses.

Smokey maken a call…

900k average price.

#33 drydock on 03.28.14 at 7:39 pm

You can’t deleverage a pyramid scheme, you constantly need new meat at the bottom no matter what the eventual cost . Same goes for the vapor taper caper.
We’re all singing keep kicking the can blues.
When this baby finally blows it’s going to be biblical.

#34 Linda Mulligan on 03.28.14 at 7:41 pm

Congrats on being on your feet again. Got to say all those metal bits in the leg look like amateur builder work but if it works & stays ‘together’ so what. At least it wasn’t your head & could be fixed. BTW, is it true having all that metal will set off the metal detectors in an airport? I’ve always wondered if that were just an urban myth.

As for the housing correction I’ve got to say that buying now is something I would not do. If it were quality goods – real stone, brick, hardwood etc. all plumb & square etc. it might not be so painful but the money being demanded for the pressed cornflake housing would be enough to keep me from buying unless there were literally no other way to get a roof over my head. Fortunately we were lucky enough to buy in the 80’s when prices were still reasonable & the market had crashed so interest rates were no longer at levels that were rapidly approaching those of loan sharks. Not that they were low – they were running 14-16% in 1984 – but they did continue to drop & we kept to short 6 month to 1 year terms to ensure we got the benefit of any lower rates when they finally came along.

Regarding lower rates eventually rising – maybe. I’m wondering if North America might not end up following in the footsteps of Japan. European economies are reported to be flirting with deflation/stagnation. It is all very well to point to the USA, but they have their own economic problems/issues. They may be able to keep themselves afloat but I think it a bit too optimistic that their economy will be robust enough to support the rest of us. Plus there have been a number of reports that indicate those naughty habits that caused the great 2008 meltdown are still being practiced. Not going to be good if those reports are true – just say NO to deja vu!

#35 Steve on 03.28.14 at 7:42 pm

That’s a lot of hardware hog nailed through that old stump man! If you want that thing to heal into the indomitable club you know you want, here’s how. Take a dozen eggs and boil and devil them. Save the egg shells and let them dry. Gnash them all up with a mortar and pestle. Add the powder to your smoothie every morning. That’s how we got fixed up when bones broke in the old country. That’s real calcium right out of the chickens egg hole. Sissy tablets are no substitute. I learned this from a polish woman who had a spiral fracture training for the Olympics. It wouldn’t heal for months until some runcible old hag force fed her this appalling diet of powderized egg shells. You’ll be able to club the spit out of any stray dog you choose with that calcium armored sock truncheon. You’re welcome

#36 Squatter on 03.28.14 at 7:51 pm

Great Garth!
You’re getting back to normal!

#37 Babblemaster on 03.28.14 at 8:03 pm

“Either they’ve bought into the ‘buy now or buy never’ mantra, or they simply can’t stand the stigma of renting (at less cost) and the social pressure to conform.” – Garth

————————————————————

Some of them have listened to the prognostications of a RE correction these last few years and have seen their hopes dashed as they fall further behind. What do you expect?

#38 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.28.14 at 8:03 pm

Your ankle xray reminds me of a friend who broke his neck and had a “halo” screwed into his skull for months while his vertebrate healed.
The halo was attached to his skull in 4 places with large screws. It was supported by 4 steel rods running down to his shoulders and strapped to his body to keep his head and neck immobile.
I popped by one day to see how his recovery was going and to my utter horror he was outside in his icy, slippery driveway walking to his mailbox. Slipping, sliding, almost falling he successfully reached his mailbox and held the fistful of junk Mail high above his head like a triumphant Olympian medalist.
When I asked him what in God’s name he was doing he replied,”i’m going nuts cooped up in the house…..”

Don’t push yer recovery too fast Garth. We want you tap dancing for many years to come…….

#39 Cici on 03.28.14 at 8:09 pm

Oh Garth, glad to hear you are healing well, but please do take great care and stay away from dangerous areas with ice, snow and real estate agents.

Also, thanks for all of your sage advice. I actually bought a home buying guide today even though I don’t want the burden of buying and maintaining a crappy, overpriced home (but the boyfriend does so I thought I’d better get prepared just in case there is ever a price drop and it becomes a major relationship issue).

Anyways, I was really unimpressed by the quality of this so-called “educational guide” with advice like “Buyers on the sidelines may regret it if mortgage rates shoot higher. Money will remain cheap for a few years, but it won’t last forever.” Of course they don’t encourage people with low rents to continue renting and stockpiling cash so that they can eventually buy with at least 20% down and more protection in the event of a job loss or other destabilizing event.

Also, the guide is chock full of real-estate advertisements and even had an agent’s business card stuck in the spine.

Looks like we’ll be renting for at least a few more years if I have my way…

#40 Bob Rice on 03.28.14 at 8:16 pm

An unfettered market will more likely correct, and probably sooner. After all, it was interference in favour of supporting the market in recent years that led to this stupidity.

#41 Smoking Man on 03.28.14 at 8:18 pm

No more smoking man posts garth, getting in the zone, and it’s not even 9pm yet.

And I’m weird state… Repeat of last week’s deletes.. I did it again.

You only live once…. No man real dies, but most men never live.

I’m very alive at the moment.

No more tonight after this, even if discover God and I start farting out flowers… And love everyone.

#42 Daisy Mae on 03.28.14 at 8:24 pm

“Blowing into this real estate gasbag now seems like the only economic strategy on the table.”

*********************

Pathetic, isn’t it? But that isn’t the only problem these clowns have. And ‘Mr. Owe’ will do exactly what Harper says.

We still have high unemployment which will continue to increase as companies downsize and/or close. We have stagnant wages. Higher costs for essentials such as utilities, gasoline, food…..

The economy cannot improve until we start spending. And there’s no money left at the end of the month to do that.

So…now what, Harper?

#43 Realtor # 1 on 03.28.14 at 8:25 pm

What another two years!!

Should have bought in 2010 damn!

#44 Peter C. on 03.28.14 at 8:32 pm

Started taking your Vit D3 and K2 yet?
It’s not normal for people to break bones falling on sidewalks..really!

#45 Cory on 03.28.14 at 8:34 pm

I said this long ago that nothign would be done until after the next election. I would assume maybe Flaherty saw what was going to happen, like carney, and hit the road so Oliver could hold the bag.

This is a very very sad state of affairs when politicians will allow all housing to become unaffordable for many in their quest for power. Many people cant buy even with these easy credit and cheap money policies and thus this has alsonincreased rents which are also unaffordable for many as a result.

Sad when a bunch of uneducated flunkies called realtors are allowed to mislead the sheep in such ways without any repercussions.

#46 Bill Gable on 03.28.14 at 8:38 pm

Hope you make rapid progress in your recovery. You have been through a real grinder.

“Bandit” – easy, bud.

#47 mel in victoria on 03.28.14 at 8:39 pm

Hi Garth, not visited for a while.

Sorry to hear about your injury and hope you make a full recovery.

What’s with Joe Oliver? I couldn’t believe the mortgage rate announcement..Are the powers that be who are examining the facts figure we’re close to looking into the abyss…..again? Joe isn’t doing this without the blessing of the boss ….so you figure Steven might have lost it because he’s been getting into some of that wacky baccy he’s looking to decrim? Man these are strange times..Maybe time to buy some Maples….just for the hell of it and with everything globally going really nuts, I think they have a better chance than RE..

Wishing speedy recovery……

#48 Natty Dread on 03.28.14 at 8:40 pm

Just wanted to say thank you for helping me make a decision that improved my life and that of my family. I was a house-horny 30 something in 2007. Bought a house in the Peg, overpaid. After a few years of paying for renos, repairs, maintenance, taxes and watching my debt climb, and after reading your column and your book, I decided I needed to get out. I managed to sell late last year, retire all of my debt, save a few sheckles, and am now happily a renting a big, new home in Victoria for only 2K a month. With the financial freedom of not having a house to suck my finances dry, I will be able to take parental leave when my wife gives birth next month (twins no less). Your advice made a real difference to my family, so thanks!

#49 Nemesis on 03.28.14 at 8:42 pm

#CocktailHour #FridayNightFun #SurgicalEthics #HD-XRaySpecs #ElMariachi #Bitchin’Betty’s737GPWS #BoeingBoeing #BuddhaChillout

TeeHee!… Well done, AuldPol!!!

Although I have no idea how CatFoodLady would choose to interpret that picture… I cannot but conclude that HogTown OrthoCutters take scant pride in their work… After all, in Blighty – it’s, like, totally DeRigueur to “SignOff” on the ‘job’ [and let’s, please, not talk about all that Rona LiquidationSale hardware! HowColonial.]:

[BBC] – The ethics of a surgeon leaving his mark on a patient

…”It is usual for surgeons, or the scrub nurse, to test the diathermy – a pen-like device which produces heat to stop bleeding or cut tissue – on wet gauze before using it on the patient, but not on a patient’s organs.”…

http://www.bbc.com/news/health-25525140

But never mind all that… I think it’s HighTime, yes, HighTime indeed that the SaltyDogz were treated to the diagnostic imagery you chose not to post [sorry about this AuldPol… but, I’m sure you’ll understand]:

http://tinyurl.com/ofoggr2

Pffft… you’re not just walkin’, you know… you’re making music:

http://tinyurl.com/ofoggr2

Enough of that… Right.

@Ralph… these are for you – and I’m not sure which are the more frightening/challenging… but I’m quite certain that on one level or another you’ll enjoy either:

http://youtu.be/tYeVMOw5v1Q

http://youtu.be/FchnNJOEZmM

Which brings us, nicely, to this evening’s GrandFinale…

Inspired by NostyTheSnugglyPapalButtocks’ SpiritualWaxings {which, doubtless – more than amply conceal his RedHotChilis}’…

We used to have a saying in TheMagicCircle, Nosty – “Begin your inquiries by assuming that NothingIsReal and take it from there…”

http://youtu.be/vfcrStZ48dE

Well. There it is. ChillaxTime.

#50 Nemesis on 03.28.14 at 8:46 pm

#Erratum #BudweiserFingerCut&PasteFailure

“Pffft… you’re not just walkin’, you know… you’re making music:”

http://youtu.be/dstluwm1Cjs

#51 b on 03.28.14 at 9:00 pm

Garth, It’s just like riding a bike – you’ll do great!

#52 ozy - Are you throwing in the GLOVES, Garth :) on 03.28.14 at 9:01 pm

Are you throwing in the GLOVES, Garth :)

another 10% jump instead of 30% decline

that’s pretty loose predictions, lol

ok, give up!

I predict more risk. — Garth

#53 Sam on 03.28.14 at 9:01 pm

What happens if the greenback loses its reserve currency status? Is it not possible?

No. — Garth

#54 X on 03.28.14 at 9:02 pm

Not sure the RE market will hold out until the election next fall….I guess we will see how good the RE pumpers are.

Enjoy the walk tomorrow!

#55 Dog-gone-it! on 03.28.14 at 9:11 pm

Any guess who’ll be happier?

Bandit having a walk with Poppa?
or Poppa breathing fresh outside air (finally)?

Even if ‘the walk’ is just a step outside the front door & back inside again, its a Victory Lap. the first of many

good on ya boy!

#56 Keith in Calgary on 03.28.14 at 9:30 pm

It “is” all about Harper getting re-elected next year.

Can’t even think about blemishing that feel good vibe and warm fuzzy feeling the housing virgins get when they sign up for $700K worth of pressed cornflakes. He’d lose votes if the truth was told.

Booked 2 weeks of my month’s worth of holidays this week at the office……did it 6 months in advance. Controller says why am I booking out so far ? Well, I told her where we are going has few hotels and is a spot that is often booked months ahead.

She had a staycation this year…….most of our office did too, as they are all aforesaid virgins, or buried under HELOC’s and other debt……when some of them heard I went to Brasil, France, and the UK in January over 4 weeks they wanted to know how I did it. I can’t tell them we’re going to Monaco for 2 weeks in September……..they already feel sooooo stupid.

#57 Aggregator on 03.28.14 at 9:41 pm

#53 Sam

What happens if the greenback loses its reserve currency status? Is it not possible?

Already happening…

Bundesbank, PBOC Sign Deal to Settle Renminbi Payments in Frankfurt

The central banks of Germany and China have agreed to cooperate on the clearing and settlement of payments denominated in China's currency, the renminbi, the Deutsche Bundesbank said Friday.

"The Bundesbank supports the creation of a renminbi clearing solution in Frankfurt. The city is one of Europe's foremost financial centers and home to two central banks, making it a particularly suitable location," Bundesbank executive board member Joachim Nagel said.

You want to know what the best investment over the next decade will be? A Chinese wife with an overseas bank account.

#58 Dr. Sex U Al Intellect on 03.28.14 at 9:42 pm

Wow dude that’s a lot of hardware in your leg. Glad to hear you’re up to walking the dog. Just don’t overdo it, I speak from experience. Start slow and and short and build up, even if it makes you feel like a wuss.

Looks like our useless federal government is in let’s try to piss as few people off as possible mode in the lead up to the next election. No matter how much more it screws things up their interest is strictly in getting re-elected. Sad, even sadder the other choices aren’t really any better and would likely act similarly. To bad, the sooner we get the correction over with the better off we’ll be and the higher it goes before the more it will hurt.

It kind of makes you wonder just how responsible our world renowned banks are when the know damn well that this is short term gain almost certain to bring long term pain. Doesn’t matter that CMHC backstops them, the rest of the economy will suffer and that will come back to bite them on the ass. Hell it’s already happening in most of the country. Then again they keep having more profit every quarter so maybe they are three or four steps ahead and prepared for what is coming.

#59 Dr. Sex U Al Intellect on 03.28.14 at 9:45 pm

Or maybe the right horrible prime minister needs to be in the country in order to get his hand up his minister’ arses to make their mouths move?

#60 e4me on 03.28.14 at 9:50 pm

The point perhaps Garth is missing that Vancouver proper, forget about the multiple bridges you have to cross to access the burbs, has no “new” land. You buy “used” and live in it or tear it down and build “new”. Comparing the risk with the stock market and home ownership is also comparing apples and oranges. You cannot live on or in a handful of stock whose value can disappear in a day.

What quality stocks (or bonds, or ETFs, or funds, or preferreds, or trusts) disappeared in a day? Your ignorance is knee-deep. — Garth

#61 Nemesis on 03.28.14 at 9:50 pm

#BonusZen #Let’sGoMedieval #TotallyGregorian #OccupationalCautionaryTales #TheLifeOfAWriter #EnigmaSadeness

http://youtu.be/e4q6eaLn2mY

http://youtu.be/4F9DxYhqmKw

[NoteToSaltyDogz: NextWeek is going to be exciting!]

#62 Vangrrl on 03.28.14 at 9:52 pm

Enjoy that walk!!

#63 Smoking Man on 03.28.14 at 9:52 pm

DELETED

#64 bcweatherman on 03.28.14 at 9:57 pm

Enjoy your walk with your doggie Garth!

#65 TheCatFoodLady on 03.28.14 at 9:59 pm

Garth, no doubt there have been times when it felt like anything but progress – when it hurt to the point where beads of acrid sweat stung your eyes, your ankle turned bizarre shades of red/purple & the throbbing reached fresh circles of hell.

But to be at the point, 8 weeks after major ortho surgery, when you can take a short walk, (outside?), is huge. And it’s fast. There’s something about being able to go OUT & increasingly under your own steam, without hovering supervision – no matter how loving – that feels so freeing. As the days slowly warm & you expand your horizons, life will seem a damned sight better.

#66 Drill Baby Drill on 03.28.14 at 10:02 pm

#56 Keith in Calgary

BINGO !! you nailed it. This is all about getting re-elected in 2015. Look out x-mas 2015 and Jan 2016. There will be blood. I have lived in Alta for 40 yrs and you can see this coming. The oil & gas engineering business is not good an has not been for over 1 year. This will deflate quickly in Alberta. There is no such thing as a soft landing in boom & bust Calgary.

#67 Chickenlittle on 03.28.14 at 10:04 pm

Sorry, I just skimmed this one. I’m still nauseous from the 40% fee increase from zen bridge.

#68 Chickenlittle on 03.28.14 at 10:04 pm

ENBRIDGE

I liked Zenbridge. — Garth

#69 Pope RedHotChiliSnugglebums the 666ie (aka Nosty) on 03.28.14 at 10:12 pm

Nemesis, etc. Instant karma? Fast forward to the 1:10 mark and enjoy! Had been tailgating then gave her to male one-fingered salute.

#168 Old Man on 03.28.14 at 6:56 pm — “What makes you believe the pilots were flying that plane? CNN let the cat out of the bag about secret technology that flies a plane remotely that has been fitted on the Boeing and this was shown on CNN.”

Old Man and this — Parts of a theory, that’s all from wrh.com —

“Then the real flight 370 is hidden or ditched someplace (like the South Indian Ocean) where it was not supposed to be found.

“Israel has had an identical 777 in Malaysian livery since last November, plenty of time for any “special” modifications to be made to the plane, including the installation of remote controls and possibly a nuclear weapon.

“The specific aircraft in Tel Aviv is a Boeing 777-2H6/ER, with an even longer range than the missing MH370 777-200ER.

“The media keeps the story of MH370 constantly in front of everyone (even though they have nothing new to report) so that the image of a 777 in Malaysian livery is on everyone’s mind.

“Israel flies (by remote control) the second 777 non-stop from Tel Aviv towards an airport in a major US city. Because the plane is very large it is easy to see and recognize from the ground. On approach, the 777 veers off from the flight path and flies low over the target area to make sure it is spotted and recognized (mistakenly) as the missing Flight 370.

“The Israeli 777 then activates its payload, possibly a nuclear weapon.

“The corporate media blames Iran for the mushroom cloud. Or, if the 777 flies towards Washington DC, they might even try to frame Russia for it.

“The plane does not even have to actually hit a target like DC or New York, but could be “intercepted”, detonating the nuclear weapon high in the sky miles out to the Atlantic, making for great photos and videos but causing little real damage on the ground.”

#70 Steve on 03.28.14 at 10:14 pm

So were already being tried in the courts of the unholy inquisition. Rumours are spreading amongst my in laws and outlaws about “something horribly wrong” in my household. “Why did they sell? What has been happening behind the facade? They must be in serious, serious financial trouble”. My dear old dad spilled the beans about the gossip circulating about my life and family. He asked me to keep it on the low down that my father in law is insinuating that I’ve somehow failed at life. I actually really enjoy this. First of all there’s a state of raw open war between boomers and gen x. They bloody hate us. Using their logic it’s impossible for me as a thirty eight year old man-child to do anything informed. I’m stupid because of my age. So if I’m looking over the horizon and making tactical decisions I’m obviously either financially retarded or insolvent. “Why would they sell that house when it’s their security? When it’s their only future? It must be a secret foreclosure because they’re debt pigs! Or on drugs! Or worse!”

When I do finally begin to laugh, it will be as the one who laughs last. I’m going to split my damn ribs, I’m gonna howl. Gossip away Glam-necks! Go to Cabellas with that platinum card and buy another compound bow. Go to the dealer and sign up for a bigger trailer, bigger truck, bigger house, bigger problems! Do it! I’ll praise your magnificent assisted purchases. Go to the liquor store again you millionaires in waiting and buy another 100$ bottle of scotch that’s so refined that it tastes like the ass out of a pair of cordoroy pants some homeless guy died in. Meanwhile, I’ll be getting ready, getting educated, getting diversified.

I’m going to feed the rumours, enjoy it fully. Let them belittle me, let them sneer. It’s like cool hand Luke bitches. “Sometimes nothing can be a real cool hand…”

#71 bigtown on 03.28.14 at 10:14 pm

For your mobility Garth get one of the QUAD canes advertised on TV…they are a godsend and you will be solid on your feet.

#72 Chickenlittle on 03.28.14 at 10:19 pm

And get this: some have commented that they may have to sell their houses. Hmmmm…..

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/enbridge-natural-gas-rate-hike-approved-for-ontario-1.1750050#commentsField-499648

#73 Aggregator on 03.28.14 at 10:34 pm

GTA condo sales data for the period of March 14-28 and statistics, but here's what's really interesting compared to last year:

Median Condo Maintenance Fees
March 5-27 2013 data: $412.70
March 14-28 2014 data: $491.26 +12.1%

#74 Andrew Woburn on 03.28.14 at 10:35 pm

You are having nightmares because the renminbi is about to replace the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. You are certain North Americans will be reduced selling each other pencils on the street corners of our decayed and dystopian cities. Perhaps you should read this article from Forbes and swear off reading gold humper blogs.

“Future Of The Dollar As World Reserve Currency”

http://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2013/10/25/future-of-the-dollar-as-world-reserve-currency/

#75 Jenn on 03.28.14 at 10:36 pm

Lovely to hear that you are recovering! Take care. Love hearing the Bandit stories.

#76 Chickenlittle on 03.28.14 at 10:37 pm

WHO IS GOING TO BE ABLE TO AFFORD A HOUSE NOW?!?!

I’m sorry, I just can’t get over this. This country is just one big free for all for getting screwed. It’s like prison, and big, bad Zenbridge just dropped the soap and wants you to pick it up…
(The Zenbridge was for you, Garth.)

What were the pins they put in your ankle made of, Garth? They could be worth something one day.

#77 Nemesis on 03.28.14 at 10:45 pm

#CautionaryTalesRedux #ForHD, MagnanimousHosts & SnugglyButtocksNosty, et al:

http://youtu.be/xwtdhWltSIg

#78 Derek R on 03.28.14 at 10:51 pm

#70 Steve on 03.28.14 at 10:14 pm wrote:
I’m going to feed the rumours, enjoy it fully. Let them belittle me, let them sneer.

Good man, Steve! I may be a boomer but I love a good wind-up. And that one is first-class. Play it to the hilt!

#79 prairie person on 03.28.14 at 10:55 pm

House down the street has a sold sign on it. That took about three weeks. 644,000.00. Yup, mortages under 3% will do it. Victoria sales are up over last year but down re the two previous years. The never ending winter onthe other side of the Rockies made be the impetus but there are sold signs popping up. Since there are few decent paying jobs in the city, I would assume that house buying is coming from refugees from the East. There are whole blocks of houses where nearly everyone is from Alta, Sask, Man. Arizona has slowed house buying. Lower prices, better weather. I’m surprised at the sales. However, the banks and RE are working hard to move property.

#80 meslippery on 03.28.14 at 10:57 pm

Home ownership costs.
Look at this chart.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/indexes/chart/?q=NG-FT
Year ago natural gas closed @ $4.02 today $4.47 yet
Enbridge want a 40% increase… Where is the hell fire?

#81 45north on 03.28.14 at 10:58 pm

The Big Owe, as we now understand, will do diddly about the mortgage wars. Thus are the Oliver years begun. The new finance minister is throwing in the towel on a real estate market now largely out of control, hoping the day of reckoning’s delayed until after the 2015 federal election.

the day of reckoning will come when it comes but isn’t that why you sign up? to face the day of reckoning?

#82 AJ69er on 03.28.14 at 11:04 pm

Garth, I want to say that if Bandit is the dog in the October 11, 2013 post, he’s a Samoyed not a chow.

I know what he told me. — Garth

#83 Rural Rick on 03.28.14 at 11:17 pm

I am glad you are on the mend and your feet. Don’t rush it and do not over extend yourself. Ask for help if you need it. I know of a few people who set back their recovery a bit by overextending themselves. Happy spring.

#84 I'm stupid on 03.28.14 at 11:34 pm

I just don’t understand why young 20somethings think owning a home is the ultimate goal.
Why would they waste the best time in their lives trapped? I wouldn’t advise anyone under the age of 28 to own, regardless of income. What’s the point of taking on the responsibility? It’s not like they’re having kids at that age any longer.

Remember you only live once and if you waste the best years of your life indebted you’ll realize you’ve wasted your life. The depend years come quickly, as the nurse wipes your ass clean you’ll realize you screwed up.

When did young people become so fearful? It seems like work has become a new form of fun and wealth the measure of a good night. I remember getting drunk and laid as a good night out.

#85 Jas Girn on 03.28.14 at 11:46 pm

No jobs in Toronto, yet property prices are rising like crazy. We are all screwed.

#86 Happy Renting on 03.28.14 at 11:55 pm

#70 Steve on 03.28.14 at 10:14 pm

That’s hilarious. Is your end strategy to never let them know how much money you have (so they’ll never come asking for a bail-out), or will you eventually crow when the brutally indebted sink under the weight of their payments?

In any case, I think you should totally feed the gossip beast. Show up at the in-laws in ratty, hole-y clothes. Have a pocket full of casino chips accidentally spill out. Talk about “oh, maybe next year” when asked about a major purchase. Hopefully your wife is onside with all the financial decisions your family has taken and can see the amusing aspect of her parents’ assumptions.

#87 Bin there on 03.29.14 at 12:10 am

I had an open fracture of my tib and fib in a motorcycle accident. Almost amputated my leg. Muscle transplant, skin graft, metal rod. I remember when I first walked. I remember when I first jogged on a treadmill, I almost broke down and cried. Just ran my first 10k three years later. Take it one step at a time man. You will get there. Glad you’re doing well. You’re unwillingness to admit defeat on real estate will serve you well in your recovery. God speed.

#88 Different in Québec on 03.29.14 at 12:26 am

Yesterday Quebec’s Liberal party leader promessed mesures to facilitate access to property. I guess he sees no problems here with real estate.

#89 Panhead on 03.29.14 at 12:28 am

Maybe you should come out here to the West Coast for a little re-hab. The cherry trees are out and the daffodils are in full bloom. Bandit might like a little spring. You both probably deserve it. Take life easy …

#90 lurker on 03.29.14 at 12:34 am

Great to hear you’re back on your feet Garth. As always, thanks for the blog!

I end up being the voice of reason among my family and friends. I’m screaming “hang on to your money” as all of them seem to be interested in climbing into, or upgrading inside this crazy market

#91 Peter on 03.29.14 at 12:40 am

Another two years. Another 3 years….15years goes by. House paid off. No crash. Nothing.

Wasted years.

#92 Happy Renting on 03.29.14 at 12:41 am

#56 Keith in Calgary on 03.28.14 at 9:30 pm

Good on you! Other than bank stocks (nod to Shawn), travel is the only thing you buy that makes you richer.

As for your co-workers, see how long you can get away with saying “we used points”! ;-)

#93 Mark on 03.29.14 at 12:51 am

“out of control” RE is falling, prices have been falling for most of the past year. The reason why we’re seeing these rate wars is that the banks are no longer able to pump out much more credit to the rapidly declining base of buyers.

#94 Mark on 03.29.14 at 12:57 am

“The point perhaps Garth is missing that Vancouver proper, forget about the multiple bridges you have to cross to access the burbs, has no “new” land.”

Go up in an airplane sometime, you’ll see that there’s tons of land in the Vancouver area. I’m personally getting a little sick and tired of those who claim that there’s no “land” in the Vancouver area as an excuse for high pricese.

#95 No Debt on 03.29.14 at 1:13 am

Hey, if you’re going to get knocked on your ass, better it be Bandit that does it. At least you know there’s no ill intent. The mere thought of Dorothy doing it is painful.

Good luck with the walk.

#96 Debtfree on 03.29.14 at 1:17 am

The big owe is going to label Garth as a foreign financed anti real estate radical trying to opposed to their pipeline of cheap cash . It must suck for a 70+ year old guy to be run by remote control . Oh well joe , if you had free will you’d have a blog , followers , books and self respect . Who’d want that as opposed to a BFF that can drive a bus over a whole country and his best friends. Ain’t power great . Btw What ever happened to Nigel Wright ? Throw another staffer on the Barbie . Comedy of errors .

#97 Nemesis on 03.29.14 at 1:45 am

#SoberSaturday #ThinkPieces #Week’sBest

Nemesis may be scarce for the next 48/72HRs [or longer?!?], SaltyDogz…

So, I’ll leave you with this thought provoking PotPourri of last week’s best…

Pfft….! Wherever you are, if it’s sunny, don’t bother with this s**t, go outside and play instead… as for the rest of you WeatherChallenged ShutIns:

[CommonDreams] – NAFTA At 20: “A Vehicle To Increase Profits At The Expense Of Democracy”

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2014/03/28-1

[CommonDreams] – Ukraine’s IMF Deal Means Greece-Like Depression

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2014/03/28

[CounterPunch] – Continuity and Change … For the Worse: The Obama Paradox

http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/03/28/the-obama-paradox/

[WaPo] – The ‘Sheldon Primary’ is one reason Americans distrust the political system

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-sheldon-primary-is-one-reason-why-americans-distrust-the-political-system/2014/03/28/765fbfdc-b67e-11e3-a7c6-70cf2db17781_story.html?hpid=z1

[NewStatesman] – Russia’s revenge: why the west will never understand the Kremlin: The events in Ukraine are Putin’s payback for what he considers to be a quarter-century of humiliation since the collapse of the Soviet Union

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/03/russias-revenge-why-west-will-never-understand-kremlin

Well. There it is.

BeWell, SaltyDogz.

#98 Financial Poodle on 03.29.14 at 2:02 am

Sorry, chief. My wires crossed when you talked about the mortgage rates:
“Well, five-year variable-rate loans are available for as little as 2.35%, but with five-year fixed mortgages now at 2.99% (and four-years at 2.7%), it’s hardly worth the additional risk.”

Are you saying the 2.35% VRM is not worth the extra risk or the 2.99% Fixed is not worth it? I may be earning my poodle status here, but I’d say go with the Fixed since it’s as low as it will be for a while. No?

#99 live within your means on 03.29.14 at 2:59 am

I can empathize with you. I hate crutches. Many years ago I had to have knee surgery – totally torn miniscus. Pain was excruciating. Hospital told me to take a taxi home & went back that afternoon for surgery. Went for physio for weeks after & did exercises at home using a frozen pound of peas LOL – no gel packs then. Unfortunately, I lived in a 3 level townhouse then & getting up those stairs was a b!tch. And I had to go to work during that time. Now I can look back on it & laugh. Have been thru worse, as U know.

Enjoy your short, but painful walk tomorrow w/Bandit. Don’t over do it, like my BIL did the other year, & had to go in for more surgery.

#100 Nikon fan on 03.29.14 at 3:32 am

How can big OWE as you call him be able to put his foot down when every decision comes from the PMO’s office ( you can change the first letter and it becomes the BMO’s )… Big F as called in this blog did not decide, so none of the ministers of this poor government. Big OWE as a poor environment minister and he will be a poor finance minister. Nothing will change in this country until 2015.

People are sick and do not realize that we can not have everything in life. Unbelievable….. let the crash comes, I am just waiting to pick up the crumps!

#101 Tony on 03.29.14 at 4:41 am

Re: #30 TRT on 03.28.14 at 7:21 pm

At some point in time probably soon there will be a run on the U.S. dollar before it’s replaced as the world’s reserve currency. That will temporarily spike Canadian interest rate sharply higher.

Idiot words. — Garth

#102 yorel on 03.29.14 at 7:35 am

Houses are on for less than a week, sometimes a couple of days, and gone in my area of Burlington. Prices seem high, but they go like the proverbial. Agents going around asking people if they want to sell.

#103 tj on 03.29.14 at 7:40 am

#70

Hey Steve. lol Great post. Maybe you can tell them you’ve starting shopping at Value Village and invite them over for some beans and wieners and show them your stock pile of canned good and toilet paper.

#104 Julia on 03.29.14 at 7:49 am

For more rock stars and their pets see http://touch.dangerousminds.net/dangerousminds/#!/entry/rock-stars-with-their-cats-and-dogs,53348a91b7d8d24162d3808c

#105 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.29.14 at 8:22 am

I think the 2.99% rate move will be a big non-story, just like last time. This is simply a short-term “sale” to try and hook a few buyers at the start of the spring season – nothing more, nothing less.

Poloz should just sit back and study a few charts of U.S. RE Sales and Prices before the implosion.

#106 sheane wallace on 03.29.14 at 8:24 am

competitive devaluation of shit currencies…

And the next reserve currencies:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-28/frankfurt-sets-sights-on-yuan-trade-as-xi-visits-merkel.html

Yes, there will be clearing house for yuans in Germany,
after Africa, the BRICS bank, ASIA (including Japan),

#107 sheane wallace on 03.29.14 at 8:26 am

Bye bye my Liebe Herr to the US dollah:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CX-24Zm0bjk

#108 sheane wallace on 03.29.14 at 8:32 am

#100 Tony
……………………………..
It will happen in the 2 years with 90 % confidence.
…………………………….
And no Garth, these are not idiot words.
People were laughing in 2007 when some people predicted the real estate bust.

The US dollah bust is a given. I am betting on it with my investments.

Then prepare to lose. — Garth

#109 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.29.14 at 8:42 am

Remind me… what’s the CMHC limit again?

I have an easy way to remember… it’s the exact listing price of every detached dump in the GTA:
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=14220446&PidKey=-781439238

(Vancouverization of Toronto now complete!)

#110 sheane wallace on 03.29.14 at 8:54 am

Then prepare to lose. — Garth
…………………………………..
Well I will keep my 25 % in US dividend paying stocks that are truly internationals.
I won’t keep USD expect some small hedge.
And I already diversified mostly into europe, BRICS, Asia (Singapore, Hing Kong), Australia, 5% in precious metals as insurance.

Staying away from certain gov. bonds as I believe soon there would be crises in currencies and bonds resulting in much higher interest rates for certain currencies.

Of course one can never underestimate the stupidity of house horny crowds hungry for ‘cheap money’ , the stupidity might go for a while but there would be the day of recon and nobody will like it.

Losing?
I don’t think so.

#111 Condo Minion on 03.29.14 at 9:19 am

This would also fit with the earlier post, “Race to the bottom”.

With ON now putting heat on internship slavery, how will that affect the economy?

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/03/28/unpaid_interns_are_this_generations_slaves_mallick.html

My guess is we will realize just how bad youth and intergenerational under/un/employment really is.

There is very little demographic economic force coming up to support these bloated house prices.

I can hear the foundations of particle-board mcmansions starting to crumble.

#112 Future Expatriate on 03.29.14 at 10:26 am

Good luck with the rehab, Garth.

Oh, you might enjoy this, although I’ll understand if you want to delete the link. Another case of “What they don’t know will royally #$^&*! them.”

Anger Management Issues

#113 :):( Ying Yang on 03.29.14 at 10:33 am

#28 Smoking Man on 03.28.14 at 7:12 pm
Did Herb Die?
I miss his chirping…
Herd let’s us know your above ground….
Ying Yang 10pm @ 360 club, Falls View….
…………………………..
Smoking man started doing shooters with buddy, way too much to drink, I thought club 360 was at Seneca so we walked over, got there around 10:30, club 360 is gone, it was the nice old school bar in the middle, now it’s Stir, we had a few drinks and I had to go. They almost didn’t let us back into canada we were so loaded, ha, ha!

#114 Obvious Truth on 03.29.14 at 10:50 am

Congrats on the healing and walks with your buddy Bandit. He’ll get you going faster than you think.

#115 Daisy Mae on 03.29.14 at 10:54 am

#56 Keith in Calgary: “She had a staycation this year…….most of our office did too, as they are all aforesaid virgins, or buried under HELOC’s and other debt……”

************************

Too bad. And I would imagine the airlines, the hotels, the eateries, retail stores of every description, are equally disenchanted with the fact people can’t afford these luxuries because of their high consumer debt. All initially encouraged by the government.

The only people benefiting are realtors, bankers…and the government collecting never-ending land transfer taxes.

#116 Ronaldo on 03.29.14 at 11:05 am

#93 Mark

”I’m personally getting a little sick and tired of those who claim that there’s no “land” in the Vancouver area as an excuse for high prices”

Exactly Mark. Last time I was walking around Vancouver I looked up and couldn’t see any shortage of space either. Build them high, pack them in tight, no shortage of space up there.

#117 Smoking Man on 03.29.14 at 11:07 am

YANG YING

When you go home tonight make sure you turn on every TV, every light, every appliance in celebration of Tree Hugging Hour..

I won’t be home but instructed my off spring to do it.

SMOKING MAN a proud member of the climate change denires club….

#118 Daisy Mae on 03.29.14 at 11:15 am

#76 ChickenLittle: “What were the pins they put in your ankle made of, Garth? They could be worth something one day.”

***************

Shhhh…what if a thief sticks a gun in Garths ribs someday and sez: “I want those pins!”

#119 SRV on 03.29.14 at 11:25 am

Apologies if it’s been covered, but seems to me it is quite possible F resigned, rather than play “blow the R/E bubble” one last time to get stevie (I care not who gets hurt as long as I win) wonder elected… yes/no?

#120 Penny Henny on 03.29.14 at 11:25 am

#69 Pope RedHotChiliSnugglebums the 666ie (aka Nosty) on 03.28.14 at 10:12 pm
Nemesis, etc. Instant karma? Fast forward to the 1:10 mark and enjoy! Had been tailgating then gave her to male one-fingered salute.
—————————————————–
She was the one just sitting in the passing lane, wished she had smashed. Who knows? Maybe she has? Karma :)

#121 shawn on 03.29.14 at 11:26 am

Fixed versus variable

Financail Poodle at 97 asks how tro interpreat the sentence

“Well, five-year variable-rate loans are available for as little as 2.35%, but with five-year fixed mortgages now at 2.99% (and four-years at 2.7%), it’s hardly worth the additional risk.”

****************************************

The sentence argues that you the 2.35% is not worth the risk since fixed is no much higher at 2.99% and with four years at 2.7%.

Each new borrower can decide for themselves (what a concept) if it is worth the risk to go variable. You borrows your half a million dollars on a floating rate and you takes your (interest rate) chances (or you locks in fixed for four or five years). Choose your poison.

#122 Ilona on 03.29.14 at 11:28 am

Aw, it’s so nice to see familiar faces in today’s New In Homes & Condos section of Toronto Star: Brokers talk condo investment :)

And it’s even nicer to go for a walk with my hubby – there was a six-alarm fire at the mattress factory nearby on Thursday, I could see the smoke from 11 km south where I work… Will “go to the matresses” :)

#123 nursebossyboots on 03.29.14 at 11:31 am

Impressive hardware Garth. Baby steps seem like a pain, but with a recovery like yours, it really is monumental. Glad you didn’t hit your head and lose the rapier wit! Continued good healing.

#124 :):( Ying Yang on 03.29.14 at 11:36 am

Smoking Man don’t worry I don’t do the earth thing. Girlfriend wants me to go out to dinner with her parents, I will make sure it is a brightly lite place. Mayn’t not my head hurts from last night. Invested too much into casinos last night. Good time, which one were you at?

#125 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 03.29.14 at 11:43 am

This guy is a poster boy for this blog. http://business.financialpost.com/2014/03/25/should-you-rent-or-own-your-home/

#126 Old Man on 03.29.14 at 11:44 am

The walk Mr. Turner is talking about is to become seated in his wheelchair. Bandit is harnessed up to take him for a ride as his driver roaring down the nearest sidewalk. Its a sight seeing trip to get some fresh air and wave to the astonished cars passing by with shouts “I am back.”

#127 Alex n Calgary on 03.29.14 at 11:56 am

Hey Congrats on taking steps! I can’t imagine how frustrating it must have been this last 10 weeks being wheelchair bound! just in time for the good weather!

You know its not the insanity of high prices or pressure I think that would put me into a house before its ready. Its this constant moving in Calgary, this last move to the new rental was in -40c wind, it was outrageously crap, 4 rentals in 4 years is pretty nasty, how long until this unstable seeming woman puts this place up for sale, I can hardly comprehend of moving all the stuff again, cmon correction! daddy needs to not move into another rental!

#128 Yyc renter on 03.29.14 at 11:57 am

Why in the world is CMHC still what it is?? Set the max price to 450K (ie the average price in canada) first time buyers ONLY, and 10% down. When pretty much anyone can put down 50K (or borrow it from their rrsp) and be in a 999,999 home, there’s a problem.

#129 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 03.29.14 at 12:07 pm

FOR ST GARTH OF FRUSTRATING ECONOMIC OUTCOMES,

at least you’re walking about again. Must feel good! Keep on truckin’.

AS FOR THE REST,

it could be that Mr. Oliver has chosen the path of least resistance, in not standing in the way of new bank-offered lower home mortgage interest rates, to what the government hopes will result in a powerful enough economic renaissance to see them through another majority election victory next year.

It’s otherwise known as Priming the Pump Part Deux. Or QE 2 Canadian Style.

What happens would be a renewed real estate boom employing all of the bit players and other hangers on in the real estate/home construction industry using more and more borrowed (other people’s) money.

As the eventually and likely unrepayable loans ooze throughout our economy, a feeling of greater wealth will seep through to the lower levels of society, and presto (!) it’s back to the good times. It’s all good!

This extra loot will also be good for the stock market and all of its acolytes (moi included).

It’s a cheap seats way to go, as it’ll work not only for the federal government but also all provincial governments that face re-election next year.

Such is life what one sells one’s sold to the devil for buckets of filthy lucre and another few years planted on the right side of the House.

Day of reckoning?

It’ll take a while, I expect.

#130 Ronaldo on 03.29.14 at 12:10 pm

#101 Yorel –

”Agents going around asking people if they want to sell.”

Same thing was happening in summer of 74 before the market crashed 20% that autumn. Worst hit was West Vancouver. Just be patient, not much longer.

#131 TurnerNation on 03.29.14 at 12:18 pm

Yawn, more $700k semis, “fairtrade/artisan” coffee stores with exposed brick, ironic T-shirt stores, “locavore” eateries, and indoor beards & touques, SUV strollers, and hipsters. This time on the east end. West end filled.

Worldclass culture in Toronto!? I’m staying downtown

(Damn I must be aging. Decades ago the squares complained about hippies.)

http://www.thegridto.com/life/real-estate/gentrify-me/

#132 airhead princess on 03.29.14 at 12:30 pm

” Obama meets with Saudi king

…do ya think the saudi’s will drive down the oil price
like they did when russian invaded afghanistan/”

In fact Obozo got the bums rush and had his dinner with the king cancelled…..a real insult in Arab society…where hospitality is sacred.

You might have also noticed that O-Screw-up didn’t get the rousing applause he expected after his little speech in the Hague….only two of his staff tried to start but it fizzled off when no one else joined in. In 2008 when Oboozo visited Germany as the ‘hope and change’ president there was a huge crowd and lots of accolades from the Euro0Trash…..this time nothing. It appears that the veneer has worn of this cheap phony…..less popular than Nixon in todays polls……wrecking the opportunity for any other coloured man to ever run for president.

The Irving proposal will get CDN oil out to the world…..fracking fields are short lived…..Canada will win the fight against Obama….he’s a lame duck….and the Saudi King just wanted to tell to f-off to his face.

PS…lowering rates has just made my house more valuable…..yayyy for lower rates…..more customers for me.

#133 HD on 03.29.14 at 12:41 pm

@ Nemesis

Great song indeed.

1st time seeing the music video though.

Good stuff.

Best,

HD

#134 TRT on 03.29.14 at 12:45 pm

Bank of Canada gov Poloz now going to start using “anecdotal evidence” when setting policy.

Clowns are going to make it up as we go….meaning they will continue to destroy out currency.

Hopefully, the USA can pull a Crimea on my part of the world — BC. Wonder what the results would be if we had a referendum.

#135 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 03.29.14 at 12:49 pm

#26 gut check on 03.28.14 at 7:02 pm

#23 Soylent Green is People

I don’t know what it is, but that whole Tiny House thing really gets my radar up. WTF? Exactly WHY would anyone want that – permanent camping. Nowhere to run. Can you imagine having to have spent from November til now in one of those things?

And why are the websites so sketchy? Why so few real details and pictures? What’s the scam and who is running it? the ads were literally all over Kijiji for the longest time.. probably still are but I haven’t looked in a while.

Built my own version as an RV a while back, but smaller.

The biggest advantage of those things over a true RV is far better heat & sound insulation and structural strength. If used as an extended-living ‘RV’ in winter in most parts of Canada, it would be way superior to a typical commercial RV, like many do use in Fort McMurray (-50).

Doing it yourself allows you to configure it for your own situation and tastes without going overboard and ending up with a McMansion, or just another summer-vacation trailer. They are definitely livable, just as many old-time trapper’s or homesteader’s cabins were.

They are what living accommodation was meant to be. A warm, dry secure place to sleep, eat, clean up and dry out. The rest of the day, you get out and do things like work or socializing or errands or sports or other projects. No sitting around the house playing video games and getting obese and stupid.

However. You still should be connected to modern services such as power, water, sewer over the long term (more than several weeks), or have an equivalent rural well, septic field, and 120VAC power source (grid, waterfall, windmill, generator, etc.) Similar to most mobile home parks I’m guessing.

She’ll also find that the walls will have to seriously repainted every year in the Vancouver climate, if that’s what the finish is. Would be far better to have some kind of RV filon siding.

It’s also not an RV at all. Not tow-able at anything like highway speeds, and obviously extremely top-heavy and subject to any type of side-wind blast. It looks very heavy, possibly heavier than what the axles are rated for. I’d be really interested is seeing what the total moved-in weight would be, on one of those commercial highway scales.

For long-term parking, the trailer frame should be levelled and jacked up to take the pressure off the tires and suspension, and eliminate any ‘jiggle’ when walking back and forth inside. Despite the blocked floor on top of a wooden trailer deck, an insulated wind-skirt around the bottom of the trailer frame would also be needed in the winter in most parts of Canada.

All in all, it’s a viable permanent option 20 or 30 times cheaper than some small run-down old house or downtown condo. And movable without loss if she decides to go to Saskatoon or Yellowknife or someplace in Ontario or Quebec or whatever.

#136 Future Expatriate on 03.29.14 at 1:04 pm

Looks like I mistyped the link. Thanks Garth.

Anger Management Issues

#137 CalgaryRocks on 03.29.14 at 1:06 pm

We switched to a small dog now that we are free spirits with nothing holding us down. Easier to travel and find affordable accommodations.

We drove down south on Dec 30th and spent January & February in Vegas, San Francisco and some other places. Exploring, learning and creating contacts. We’re both on L work visas and can work from anywhere so no reason to stick around for the polar vortex.

By the way, thanks to all of the free money, there’s an investment bubble going on in Silicon Valley and my advice is that if you’re half decent in any open source web technologies you should get your ass down there ASAP.

#138 Cody Young on 03.29.14 at 1:43 pm

#26 gut check

Some of us can live in those kinds of houses. I know of at least three friends that are looking into building one, why? Cause they don’t fill their lives with shit they don’t need. Plus they’ll never be homeless and can bank and invest.

Who I”m kidding they won’t invest.

#139 jess on 03.29.14 at 1:48 pm

Hedge,speculative,ponzi stages

“Stability is destabilising”.

BBC Radio 4′s Analysis program has an episode on Minsky and looks at topics such as:
Why Minsky Matters

Duration: 30 minutes
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03yn83s
Producer: James Fletcher

=======
This article has discussed how money is created in the modern economy.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q102.pdf

#140 Old Man on 03.29.14 at 1:52 pm

Things are going south for Vegas as gambling revenues are way down because people are tapped out; sounds like small retail Ontario. Now, if luck would have it had someone that wanted a booking in Vegas during July for 5 nights who lives far away. They come to me for the bargains as know am cheap as hell. The return flight for two came in at $1,701.78, but if I chose an exclusive hotel as a combo the total price would be $1,885.00. This leads me to believe that the rooms are being given away in hopes of losing at the tables; they are desperate for losers to keep the cash flowing. I used Orbitz for my rates.

#141 JL on 03.29.14 at 1:53 pm

#84 I’m Stupid:

“I just don’t understand why young 20 somethings think owning a home is the ultimate goal.
Why would they waste the best time in their lives trapped? I wouldn’t advise anyone under the age of 28 to own, regardless of income.”

When I bought my first place in my 3rd year of university (7 years ago, I was 23) and rented a room to a friend also in school my housing costs we’re about $500 per month which is less than what living in dorm costs.

Lived in that condo for a couple years, kept the roommate, then proceeded to rent the whole property out when I travelled for year (hired a property manager, still was cash flow neutral). Then came back to the property and lived there for another year, then bought a second property and now I rent out the first one again. Rents up 40% in last seven years so its cash flow positive by $300 now.

Yeah, I’ve sure felt trapped these last 7 years by owning this condo. Lived far cheaper by owning vs renting, travelled for a year, and still own the place and rent it. Its up about $50,000 in value and I’ve paid off $45,000 in principal.

That’s the problem with you and Garth when you generalize. Its not about buying real estate versus not buying, its about doing it intelligently or not. The exact same argument could be made about stock market investing, if you do it stupidly you’ll lose.

#142 Smoking Man on 03.29.14 at 1:57 pm

#123 :):( Ying Yang on 03.29.14 at 11:36 am

Smoking Man don’t worry I don’t do the earth thing. Girlfriend wants me to go out to dinner with her parents, I will make sure it is a brightly lite place. Mayn’t not my head hurts from last night. Invested too much into casinos last night. Good time, which one were you at?

Seneca…. Got a ritzy bash tonight, all the high rolling Chairmen, AK world’s biggest losers.

To make matters worse Mrs smoking man dragged me kicking and screaming to the mail. To get some new clothes.

I would rather dig a hole for a pool bare hands than shop.

I escaped and sending you this from Starbucks free Wi-Fi, hard to concentrate, she’s been texting like crazy to find me.

Hopefully she will tire herself out soon, so I can get the hell out of hear.

Look at Financial post…. Overnight rate will be coming down soon. Prozac throwing out the models….

#143 maxx on 03.29.14 at 2:00 pm

Happy to hear you’re up and about Garth. Steady as she goes with the fur ball though- we don’t want déja vu.

#144 jess on 03.29.14 at 2:01 pm

131 airhead princess

i don’t agree with your negative guesses. what is said behind a closed /debugged History room is hard to hear. Hush now . Our present government has created a “Code of Silence.”

#145 Vancouver RE agent on 03.29.14 at 2:11 pm

Condos in Vancouver have never been cheaper. With ZERO down (borrow downpayment from the bank) and 2% interest rates GARANTEED by the government for decades to come 20% per year RE appreciation and bidding wars are what we will keep seeing for the next 40 years or so. DONT MISS THE BOAT. Practically all NEWLY SELF MADE MILLIONARES of today in Canada are those flipping RE. Prices DONT MATTER ! DEBT is everything.

#146 Son Ponzi on 03.29.14 at 2:32 pm

#57

You want to know what the best investment over the next decade will be? A Chinese wife with an overseas bank account.
——————-
Yup, Got one.

#147 what bubble? on 03.29.14 at 2:50 pm

Vancouver was an experiment. Feds are satisfied with the results: people can happily afford 80% of household income to go towards housing costs. There were no any signs of social disapproval, or displeasure… everything was cool… now Toronto is going to be the next place for Feds experimentation… this time they’ll try to make it 90% … there is no limit for perfection.

#148 KommyKim on 03.29.14 at 2:53 pm

RE: #133 TRT on 03.29.14 at 12:45 pm
Hopefully, the USA can pull a Crimea on my part of the world — BC. Wonder what the results would be if we had a referendum.

The answer would be a big NO!
A tiny possible yes, if some of the more progressive western/northern states wanted to break away from the USA and join up with an independent western Canada.
Not a very likely scenario though.

#149 AK on 03.29.14 at 3:00 pm

#107 sheane wallace on 03.29.14 at 8:32 am
#100 Tony
……………………………..
It will happen in the 2 years with 90 % confidence.
…………………………….
And no Garth, these are not idiot words.
People were laughing in 2007 when some people predicted the real estate bust.

The US dollah bust is a given. I am betting on it with my investments.
===================================

Knock your self out, Dude.

The U.S. Dollar is in the very early stages of a Bull Market.

#150 jess on 03.29.14 at 3:07 pm

Financial Planning ?

“spank shops”
-security breach after thousands of confidential customer files were stolen and sold on to rogue City traders.
By Ian Gallagher and Stephanie Condron and Simon Watkins

PUBLISHED: 22:00 GMT, 8 February 2014 | UPDATED: 08:29 GMT, 10 February 2014
Barclays said in a statement: ‘We are grateful to The Mail on Sunday for bringing this to our attention and we contacted the Information Commissioner and other regulators on Friday as soon as we were made aware.

‘Our initial investigations suggest this is isolated to customers linked to our Barclays Financial Planning business, which we ceased in 2011.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2554875/Barclays-account-details-sale-gold-27-000-files-leaked.html#ixzz2xIlIu8Ee

#151 Coho on 03.29.14 at 3:09 pm

Glad to hear you’re taking your little guy out for walks again. And Spring is in the air! Well, sort of. Still potential snow and ice out your way, but I imagine it’ll feel like a re-birth of sorts to be out and about with your boy.

I wrote before that your fall could have been worse, but it was certainly bad enough. Good to hear you’re over the worst of it.

#152 KommyKim on 03.29.14 at 3:10 pm

#116 Smoking Man on 03.29.14 at 11:07 am
When you go home tonight make sure you turn on every TV, every light, every appliance in celebration of Tree Hugging Hour..
I won’t be home but instructed my off spring to do it.
SMOKING MAN a proud member of the climate change denires club….

Human induced climate change is real, but turning off all lights and appliances for one hour per year is a complete farce. One hour out of the year accounts for 0.012% of the total time.
Much better to buy energy efficient appliances/light bulbs, turn off lights when you leave the room, get a small car, etc than participate in that feel good BS.
If you really want to stick it to the man, don’t have kids either. No replacement consumers/peons for them! You’ll save money too.

#153 Mark on 03.29.14 at 3:31 pm

Rents up 40% in last seven years so its cash flow positive by $300 now
..
Its up about $50,000 in value and I’ve paid off $45,000 in principal.

$95,000 in equity (plus whatever downpayment you placed) and you’re only seeing “cash flow” of $300/month? Pathetic!

Once you incorporate long-term maintenance and taxes, I doubt there’s any long-term earnings at that price. Just watch over the next few years as much of your “equity” disappears.

#154 sciencemonkey on 03.29.14 at 3:37 pm

The economy must be going gangbusters; it was literally impossible to find a parking spot at Yorkdale Mall at 2 pm today. All I wanted to do was pick up something from stitch it. :(

@108 Bubble Boy
Yup, my parent’s are selling their McMansion in Thornhill Woods for two grand under the magical limit. The funny thing is there are a lot of houses for sale within the area, some McMansions also right under a mil, some a little over 1.1 mil, some townhomes 5-600k.

Somewhat related to this, one of my friends at work is an 18 yr old co-op engineering student. I was trying to explain to him that somewhere out there a boomer was depending on him to fund their retirement by buying their home at 2-3x what they paid for it. Very strangely, he seemed less than amenable to the idea…

#155 Michele on 03.29.14 at 3:37 pm

People who share their lives with dogs are good people.

Best wishes for a walk to full recovery.

Keep working on that range of motion. It’ll pay off.

#156 Andrew Woburn on 03.29.14 at 3:38 pm

#107 sheane wallace on 03.29.14 at 8:32 am
#100 Tony
……………………………..
It will happen in the 2 years with 90 % confidence.
The US dollah bust is a given. I am betting on it with my investments.
=================================

Somewhere around 1985 the relative value of the USD measured by the USD index was about 168. Now its about 79. What does a dollar bust look like and how does it happen?

#157 Old Man on 03.29.14 at 3:41 pm

#151 KommyKim – the entire weather is controlled by the Sun and its been acting up, as its a complex unit. The human induced climate change is a hoax for all to buy into the carbon tax scheme.

#158 sciencemonkey on 03.29.14 at 3:45 pm

@152 KommyKim
I don’t understand how people decide to have kids. Aren’t they worried about losing their jobs and not being able to support themselves, let alone dependents?

Maybe it’s because I’m too careful/anxious about the future, and I’ve made poor life choices in terms of choosing the unreliable career of a research scientist. I would feel more comfortable if I or my partner was in a more stable profession, like doctor or teacher. As it is, I have no confidence in the future.

#159 Debtfree on 03.29.14 at 4:09 pm

@69 nosty . I think the odds of an alien abduction is as credible as your scenario .

#160 LeafsSteak on 03.29.14 at 4:17 pm

Garth, Hear’s a topic for a future blog post: What would you do if you were the new FM?

#161 Ralph Cramdown on 03.29.14 at 4:55 pm

#153 Mark — “$95,000 in equity (plus whatever downpayment you placed) and you’re only seeing “cash flow” of $300/month? Pathetic!”

Plus the principal portion of the monthly mortgage payment. Maybe not pathetic, depending. You can sometimes make good money on a cash flow negative property, and you can lose money on a cash flow positive property. The only certainty in leveraged real estate investing is that the debt must be serviced, somehow.

The real question is would he be better off selling and investing in something else, or keeping the place? If I had a good, hassle-free long term tenant, it might be a keeper. Maybe a keeper just to procrastinate on the tax implications of selling. Let’s hope our intrepid landlord has supportable valuations for every time the place changed status between primary residence and rental.

#162 Smoking Man on 03.29.14 at 5:12 pm

#152 KommyKim on 03.29.14 at 3

I knew I would shake someone from the tree with my last post.

I bet you would be a good candidate for a hypnotherapy, thanks for the insight and your copy paste post from the tree hugging manual..

You huggers think you can keep taxing wealth creators for
ever.

Climate change is not caused by humans.. You can fit every man woman and child on this planet in 1/3 of Lake Ontario. Sorry world’s too big, not enough people to have any impact.

You where sold a used car, paid twice as much vs getting a new one.

The best Smoking Men in the world sell man made climate
change.

But getting you to see the light is harder than getting a religious extremist to denounce God.

Your kind will never split an atom….

#163 Smoking Man's Old Man on 03.29.14 at 5:18 pm

I thought this quote was pertinent:

‘ Human beings can attain a worthy and harmonious life only if they are able to rid themselves, within the limits of human nature, of striving to fulfill wishes of the material kind.’

ALBERT EINSTEIN

#164 Smoking Man on 03.29.14 at 5:25 pm

Vlad I think Chris Billy just postponed WWW3

I think good old boys, in the CIA are at war with, the off shore architects running the NSA.

This whole GeoPolitcs thing is getting very interesting….

You Vladimir are a true detective..

#165 Ralph Cramdown on 03.29.14 at 5:27 pm

#156 Andrew Woburn — “What does a dollar bust look like and how does it happen?”

Oh, that’s an easy one. Any time you hear the President mention a “strong dollar policy,” you know the dollar is sinking and will continue to. During W’s presidency, he mentioned it so often that I didn’t even have to check the charts. 121 all the way down to 70 on his watch.

I don’t recall it being a time of noisy goldbugs and dollar doomers, either. Now that the decline has stopped and the thing’s been going sideways for half a decade, on the other hand…

#166 sheane wallace on 03.29.14 at 5:50 pm

#156 Andrew Woburn
……………………………….
Somewhere around 1985 the relative value of the USD measured by the USD index was about 168. Now its about 79. What does a dollar bust look like and how does it happen?
……………………………….

Some ‘extremists’ claim that the dollar might lose 80-90 % of it’s purchasing power in the next few years.

One of them is Jim Richards,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_G._Rickards

http://usawatchdog.com/fed-insolvent-dollar-will-collapse-90-or-more-james-rickards/

n 1981, Rickards was involved in the Iran hostage crisis.[4] As general counsel for the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM),[5][6] he was the principal negotiator in the 1998 bailout of LTCM[7] by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

LTCM crises was the biggest market crises before 2008,
……………………..
I am much more conservative, I think dollar losing 50% of it’s purchasing power would be horrific enough, so I am not advocating for hyperinflation, I am not a ‘doom-er’ either obviously since I am fully invested in the stock market (considering current stock market conditions).

My claim is purely that the current monetary policies would drive significant inflation and that people on fixed income and savers would be devastated.
A ‘recovery’ in nominal terms could be accompanied by significant decline in standards.

Markets should define risks and returns, not governments, any financial oppression, including zirp policies has it’s cost and it is highly unmoral to steal from savers and people on fixed income (specially retirees) to fuel the insane housing market though scam and ponzi schemes backed by governments /CMHC.

If we had normal market forces driving the housing market we would have very different and much lower prices, much higher interest rates.
People should not be stock market or investment savvy to protect their savings.

Governments have lost their roots.

#167 sheane wallace on 03.29.14 at 6:03 pm

#156 Andrew Woburn
…………………………
Dollar index measures the dollar against basket of other currencies that are inflated themselves.

What you provide is a statistic of how aggressively the dollar is devalued compared to other currencies, the dollar has declined around 400 % compared to the CHF in the last 40 years.

It might do the same in the next 5-10.

Just look at the horrific cost of everything that matters – education, health care.

We think that we are safe in Canada with our ‘government’ health care but I am absolutely certain that to compensate for the insane CMHC gambles and economic policies our health care or parts of it would be privatized slowly in the future. Yes H’s friends in Alberta would be covered but the rest of Canada…

#168 maxx on 03.29.14 at 6:03 pm

#42 Daisy Mae on 03.28.14 at 8:24 pm

“We still have high unemployment which will continue to increase as companies downsize and/or close. We have stagnant wages. Higher costs for essentials such as utilities, gasoline, food…..

The economy cannot improve until we start spending. And there’s no money left at the end of the month to do that.”

Perfectly true.
Just imagine the spending that would occur if this ginormous boomer cohort, which, for the most part does not need nor want excess risk, had access to decent interest rates. With this perverted economy, even those with LOTS of cash have cut back and are bargain hunting mercilessly. Preservation of wealth and obviating government-imposed financial damage is now the order of the day. After a few years, this efficient mind-set will never turn round. Retail, hospitality and the service industries are in for a hell of a ride.

#169 jess on 03.29.14 at 6:09 pm

The signature finding of Out of Reach is the annual Housing Wage – the hourly wage a full-time worker must earn to afford a decent two-bedroom rental home at HUD-estimated Fair Market Rent (FMR) while spending no more than 30% of income on housing costs.

Rent Prices Shut Out Minimum-Wage Workers In Every State: Report
“In the United States, the 2014 two-bedroom Housing Wage is $18.92. This national average is more than two-and-a-half times the federal minimum wage, and 52% higher than it was in 2000. In no state can a full-time minimum wage worker afford a one-bedroom or a two-bedroom rental unit at Fair Market Rent…”

http://nlihc.org/oor/2014

#170 saskatoon on 03.29.14 at 6:27 pm

#157 Old Man

indeed.

“earth day” is an offshoot of the World Wildlife Fund…created by Julian Huxley, President of the BRITISH EUGENICS SOCIETY.

even if you tell a “true believer” this outright…they usually just deny , deny, deny.

even if you ask them: Why would eugenicists and rockefellers essentially create “environmentalism”?

denial: true psychological illness of our times.

#171 KommyKim on 03.29.14 at 6:36 pm

RE: #157 Old Man on 03.29.14 at 3:41 pm
#151 KommyKim – the entire weather is controlled by the Sun and its been acting up, as its a complex unit.

If the sun was the only factor, then we would be in a cooling phase right now. We are not. Let’s just agree to disagree.

#172 sheane wallace on 03.29.14 at 6:44 pm

BTW China will be signing yuan clearing house agreement with UK on Monday.

#173 TurnerNation on 03.29.14 at 6:52 pm

It’s high time Bandit gets his own facebook page, like Brett Wilson’s dog ‘Cash’:

https://www.facebook.com/pages/J-Cash-Wilson/242803479094316

#174 Old Man on 03.29.14 at 7:11 pm

#153 Mark – I can buy a modern condo for $174.20 per sq.ft., so a 1 bedroom of 700 sq.ft. sets me back more or less $121,900 with a huge rental demand fully furnished. The demand is high all year for business and vacation, as am looking at a small vacancy rate. Using a special system can make bookings here in USD and make arrangements for the key and cleaning. My annual cashflow should come in at $24,000 CAD at the low end based on location and stats; need to check out the legals first, as others are doing just fine. Now that is investment cashflow.

#175 Soylent Green is People on 03.29.14 at 7:39 pm

2 min. cartoon of Steve Harper spouting his actual own quotes regarding Canada’s Health Care re scrapping it.

These are Harper own quotes. p.s. It’s not propaganda when they’re his OWN quotes.

http://youtu.be/bWAFuwz-15s

#176 Daisy Mae on 03.29.14 at 7:40 pm

#135 Republic: “The biggest advantage of those things over a true RV is far better heat & sound insulation and structural strength.”

*****************

Why go to all the bother? And I don’t agree. Commercially-made RVs utilize every nook ‘n cranny, they’re made of lightweight aluminum, come winterized, complete with hydraulic tip-outs. Whereas wood construction is HEAVY….and quite frankly, it’s ugly. No style.

#177 Happy Renting on 03.29.14 at 8:04 pm

#154 sciencemonkey on 03.29.14 at 3:37 pm

Somewhat related to this, one of my friends at work is an 18 yr old co-op engineering student. I was trying to explain to him that somewhere out there a boomer was depending on him to fund their retirement by buying their home at 2-3x what they paid for it. Very strangely, he seemed less than amenable to the idea…

=============

Ha ha! The argument that a house sucks up an unholy % of after-tax income should be more compelling, but nothing gets a young person’s back up like the idea that a house is the vehicle that will get the Gen X/Y buyer funding the Boomer seller’s retirement. I predict generational warfare will get worse before it gets better (if ever.)

#178 Son of Ponzi on 03.29.14 at 8:05 pm

The RiverGreen project in Richmond is not selling well.
They are giving away luxury cars to a value of 112k.
http://www.buzzbuzzhome.com/river-green

This development was heavily advertised in the Middle Kingdom.
Looks like the well is getting dry.

#179 espressobob on 03.29.14 at 8:09 pm

I hope that walk tomorrow includes good footwear, for your dogs sake!

http://workboot.com/collections/featured-products/products/viberg-45sc-chokerman

#180 Son of Ponzi on 03.29.14 at 8:14 pm

SM
You probably wonder why they vent the exhaust fumes outside at Canadian Tire.
I guess they figured out it’s too costly to get new mechanics every day.

#181 nonplused on 03.29.14 at 8:18 pm

Good luck on your recovery old friend and it’s great to see you are making progress.

My dad has more metal in his leg than a tin soldier and he’s still playing hockey at 67. (Hockey caused most of that metal too, but he’s kind of stubborn. Good for him though, he’s probably in better shape than me.) Point being you and Bandit will be cruising the dog park soon enough. You have to love dogs.

#182 KommyKim on 03.29.14 at 8:29 pm

#162 Smoking Man on 03.29.14 at 5:12 pm
RE: #152 KommyKim on 03.29.14 at 3
You huggers think you can keep taxing wealth creators for ever.

Thank you for not calling them JOB creators.

Climate change is not caused by humans.. You can fit every man woman and child on this planet in 1/3 of Lake Ontario.

The number of humans is not the problem. It is the cars, factories, deforestation, etc that they “create”. But your idea of drowning the human race in Lake Ontario is a good one.

You where sold a used car, paid twice as much vs getting a new one.

I bought my Honda civic NEW in 2003. Only 75,000K on it today. I also have a pickup truck with a 6L V8. I bought that used for cheap to haul a camper, not commute like some idiots do. I pollute as much as the average guy. But to deny that doing so has no consequences is just stupid.

But getting you to see the light is harder than getting a religious extremist to denounce God.
Your kind will never split an atom…

I never want to see the “light” of splitting atoms. The fusing atoms of the sun are enough for me.

#183 45north on 03.29.14 at 8:43 pm

Steve : Rumours are spreading amongst my in laws about “something horribly wrong” in my household. “Why did they sell? What has been happening behind the facade? They must be in serious, serious financial trouble”.

a guess: your in-laws have a mortgage, if they owned their house outright, they would be more circumspect

suppose you invite them on a vacation? talk about flights, hotel rooms? flush em out

#184 espressobob on 03.29.14 at 8:51 pm

#166 sheane wallace

Get a grip dude! Stop eating all that rubbish from those doomer sites! A balanced & diversified portfolio works wonders. Learn to rebalance & work the markets instead of them working you!

#185 Old Man on 03.29.14 at 9:05 pm

#173 Turner Nation: – you are correct as know this woman in Mexico and her dog Chico is a blogger. Chico has his own blog with pictures and words of wisdom for the local school children.

#186 Spaccone on 03.29.14 at 9:18 pm

#174 Old Man

Lucky you if you can find a condo building that will let you operate something like that.

#187 Steve French on 03.29.14 at 9:27 pm

Way out Seneca-way there was this fella… fella I wanna tell ya about. Fella by the name of the Smoking Man.

At least that was the handle Garth gave him, but he never had much use for it himself. But he called himself “Smokey”. Now, “Smokey” – that’s a name no one would self-apply where I come from. But then there was a lot about the Smoking Man that didn’t make a whole lot of sense.

And a lot about where he lived, likewise. But then again, maybe that’s why I found the place so darned interestin’.

They call Senca Niagara Casino the “Honeymoon Capital.” I didn’t find it to be that, exactly. But I’ll allow there are some nice folks there.

‘Course I can’t say I’ve seen London, and I ain’t never been to France. And I ain’t never seen no queen in her damned undies, so the feller says. But I’ll tell you what – after seeing the Smoking Man at Seneca Casino, and this here story I’m about to unfold, well, I guess I seen somethin’ every bit as stupefyin’ as you’d see in any of them other places. And in English, too.

So I can die with a smile on my face, without feelin’ like the good Lord gypped me.

Now this here story I’m about to unfold took place back in the early ’90s – just about the time of our conflict with Sad’m and the I-raqis.

I only mention it because sometimes there’s a man… I won’t say a hero, ’cause, what’s a hero? But sometimes, there’s a man. And I’m talkin’ about the Smoking Man here. Sometimes, there’s a man, well, he’s the man for his time and place. He fits right in there.

And that’s the Smokey, at Seneca.

And even if he’s a lazy man – and Smokey was most certainly that. Quite possibly the laziest in all of the Honeymoon Capital, which would place him high in the runnin’ for laziest worldwide.

But sometimes there’s a man, sometimes, there’s a man.

Aw. I lost my train of thought here. But… aw, hell. I’ve done introduced him enough.

#188 Mark on 03.29.14 at 9:50 pm

“#153 Mark – I can buy a modern condo for $174.20 per sq.ft., so a 1 bedroom of 700 sq.ft. sets me back more or less $121,900 with a huge rental demand fully furnished. The demand is high all year for business and vacation, as am looking at a small vacancy rate. Using a special system can make bookings here in USD and make arrangements for the key and cleaning. My annual cashflow should come in at $24,000 CAD at the low end based on location and stats; need to check out the legals first, as others are doing just fine. Now that is investment cashflow.”

Sounds decent, if not almost in the “if its too good to be true category….” Sure beats the $500+/square foot that condos are going for in Toronto these days.

#189 sciencemonkey on 03.29.14 at 9:54 pm

Let’s get spending started to kick start the economy:

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/march_april_may_2014/features/free_money_for_everyone049287.php

#190 sheane wallace on 03.29.14 at 10:15 pm

#184 espressobob on 03.29.14 at 8:51 pm
#166 sheane wallace

Get a grip dude! Stop eating all that rubbish from those doomer sites! A balanced & diversified portfolio works wonders. Learn to rebalance & work the markets instead of them working you!
—————————–
This is what I have been doing.
However can’t ignore the smell in the air….

#191 Ret on 03.29.14 at 10:15 pm

#154 “The economy must be going gangbusters; it was literally impossible to find a parking spot at Yorkdale Mall at 2 pm today.”

Government checks are out. Oakville malls were equally as nutty. Lots of bad bar fights tonight in Hamilton for sure.

Lots (2-300) of building along Dundas (Highway #5) and a few fields of new land about to be serviced for new homes.

#192 sciencemonkey on 03.29.14 at 10:30 pm

@187 LOL, we want the rest of the storey about Smokey!

#193 Rexx Rock on 03.29.14 at 10:58 pm

What I’ve been noticeing lately is alot of Canadians and Americans have sold their houses and now are living in Mexico and other affordable countries.Many couples have told me they live for under $1400 and less with all the amenities like home.Some are even in their early thirties and many don’t even go back to Canada or USA.Its become a trend to give up serfdom way of life in Canada and not be a tax or debt slave.

#194 Bottoms_Up on 03.29.14 at 11:15 pm

#182 KommyKim on 03.29.14 at 8:29 pm
———————————————–
Spewing millions of years of animal and plant decay into the atmosphere through burning can’t be a good thing.

#195 Bottoms_Up on 03.29.14 at 11:19 pm

#171 KommyKim on 03.29.14 at 6:36 pm
—————————————–
As a huge name in the anti-GMO fight recently said, if you’re on the wrong side of the scientific majority, you’re usually wrong. 97% of top scientists believe humans are causing the earth to warm.

He recently changed his stance on GMOs when he realized 97% of scientists also believe GMOs are safe.

#196 Aggregator on 03.29.14 at 11:23 pm

Below are beta calculations formulated for Toronto detached homes. For the layman's, a beta indicates how volitile a group is compared to a market benchmark, in this case, 416 districts compared to a 416 benchmark (TREB average 416 detached price). As an example (simplified), if the benchmark moves 2.5% m/m and group A moves at the same rate, the beta is 1, meaning it moves exactly with the market. If the same group moved by 5% m/m, the beta would be 2, meaning two times more volatile. Data is based from 2005-2013.

C03_3.14
C09_2.49
C02_1.92
W08_1.48
E01_1.26
C10_1.26
C04_1.18
C01_1.11
E06_1.11
W01_1.08
C15_0.97
W02_0.85
W06_0.79
W07_0.75
E03_0.74
C11_0.74
E02_0.71
W09_0.58
E07_0.46
C07_0.37
C12_0.29
C06_0.26
W04_0.24
E04_0.17
C14_0.16

Interactive Map (Choose Municipalities)

In short, the highest betas are areas where you can win or lose the most and which areas contribute the most percentage change to average 416 detached prices.

#197 Bottoms_Up on 03.29.14 at 11:30 pm

#157 Old Man on 03.29.14 at 3:41 pm
——————————————–
Human-induced climate change is real. Top experts, much smarter than you or I, are in agreement that over the past couple hundred years we have set the stage for a 2 degrees celcius increase.

“The scientific consensus on climate change is “that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities,”[53] and it “is largely irreversible.”[54]”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change#Human_influences

#198 Pope SweetCheekSnugglebums the 666kd (aka Nosty) on 03.30.14 at 12:08 am

#164 Smoking Man on 03.29.14 at 5:25 pm — “This whole GeoPolitcs thing is getting very interesting…. You Vladimir are a true detective..”

Hmmm. Remember Harper’s mantra “Divide and conquer”? That seems to be the ploy of the moment with no one even contemplating it, so when the FBI is thrown into the mix (along with the KGB, Mossad etc), it becomes a giant black pudding, albeit somewhat distasteful.

More to the point — Five Eyes “According to recent reporting, the Anglo, English-speaking countries of the world, including the U.S. and its allies Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, jointly participate in a spy group called the “Five Eyes” network.”, Spy vs. Spy, Running the joint but Hello Sailor!, CIA #1 and both.

You are right, of course. Listening to The Fabulous TBirds is good, but life on this shitbox of a planet is becoming increasingly complicated!

#199 Derek on 03.30.14 at 12:28 am

Another bullish analyst for Canadian RE. He has very good points.

http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/TV+Shows/Lang+%26+O%27Leary+Exchange/ID/2445183546/

#200 Kingarthur on 03.30.14 at 1:05 am

#9 Refi’d: Is this your house?

ww.rew.ca/properties/V1053827/4451-walden-street-vancouver

#201 We mean it man on 03.30.14 at 3:17 am

Now that cartoon of Harper was funny. I guess they gave him an English accent because that’s where his scripts come form. It’s hard to say wheather he’s funnier scripted or unscripted. I don’t know who writes his scripts but they stink, like his acting. Who needs fiction when Harper gives us a 24/7 bad reality show ( I envy everyone who has never seen this clip because they get to watch it for the first time)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQh3Nk2LzFc

#202 World According To Garth on 03.30.14 at 3:19 am

#171 KommyKim on 03.29.14 at 6:36 pm
RE: #157 Old Man on 03.29.14 at 3:41 pm
#151 KommyKim – the entire weather is controlled by the Sun and its been acting up, as its a complex unit.

If the sun was the only factor, then we would be in a cooling phase right now. We are not. Let’s just agree to disagree.
———————————–

Please enlighten us on where you obtained your PhD in climate change Kimmy. Like Dr Tim Ball. He has a PhD in Climatology. Not “ammonia in squid” like these thousands of scientists who “know” that climate change is real. Dr Ball will be on Coast To Coast Monday night.

#203 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 03.30.14 at 8:05 am

More than real estate values will revert to the mean. Our society will do so as well. It already is.

http://www.salon.com/2014/03/30/plutocracy_without_end_why_the_1_percent_always_defeats_the_middle_class/

#204 TheCatFoodLady on 03.30.14 at 8:33 am

I keep looking at the hardware in Garth’s ankle, realizing it’s only been in there 8 weeks & keep shaking my head in admiration at the work & the determination of our host to get back to normal. My 24 year old had an ACL replaced with a donor ligament at about the same time & he reports the physio is indeed, a bitch. His designated Quasimodo is working him hard & expects him to do a fair bit on his own. He’s doing it & it’s getting easier but fair warning; that first period of really walking – no matter how slow & shaky, is not fun.

Here is TheCatFoodLady’s Scratching Post Psychology
pseudoanalysis on the younger folk & their yearning for housing. Hmmm… I initially typed ‘earning for housing’ – a Freudian slip? LOL

We have a couple of cohorts that have grown up with massive amounts of instability & relentless, fast paced change in their lives. They’re the children of a high divorce rate & a rate of social, cultural & technological change that strikes this old ‘fartess’ as breathtakingly quick. I ASSUME they can handle paradigms that seem to change every other week but maybe it’s not that simple.

With what we, their parents taught them just not working, (degrees don’t automatically equate good jobs, etc.), is it possible in their minds a home represents stability of sorts? I didn’t say it had to be logical but we humans often don’t use a whole lot of that. Degrees mean debt & disappointment. Relationships & marriage don’t seem to carry a ton of weight. Even the terminology there is different – you ‘hook up’ with someone. When it’s over, you ‘dump’ them; to me that implies a lack of respect in the institutions of long term relationships & marriage. I see a lot of young fleeing at the First Fight. They don’t want kids either; worried about being able to do it ‘right’ or frankly admitting they don’t want to make the sacrifices required. Why? Dunno – fear of the financial future, wanting to hang on to their few pennies for themselves.

You can SEE a house; even better, so can your parents & peers. It is literally a solid attainment. How does that ‘work’ with the staggering debt levels many need to buy a house? Me – I don’t know. Levels of debt that high in one asset class scare me spitless. This however, is a generation that’s grown up with a completely different attitude towards debt. Many of the young I talk to simply assume debt will be a constant part of their lives – right up to the time they die. It’s all many have seen in the households where they were raised, all they see in the media & among their peers.

Doesn’t make a lot of sense to me but since when does much of human behaviour overtly make sense?

#205 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.30.14 at 8:53 am

In Quebec these days:

“Buy Now Or Be Priced Out Forever!”
has been replaced with
“Buy now? Might be separated out forever…”
http://www.cp24.com/news/real-estate-agents-eagerly-awaiting-outcome-of-quebec-election-1.1752552#ixzz2xRcD3dsY

I wonder if the Buffett wisdom “Buy when others are fearful” will come into play after this election?

Regardless – I’m sure the renters in Quebec are not as “house-horny” as other parts of the country these days.

#206 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.30.14 at 9:03 am

@ #154 sciencemonkey on 03.29.14 at 3:37 pm

@108 Bubble Boy
Yup, my parent’s are selling their McMansion in Thornhill Woods for two grand under the magical limit. The funny thing is there are a lot of houses for sale within the area, some McMansions also right under a mil, some a little over 1.1 mil, some townhomes 5-600k.
—————

Yep – don’t get me wrong… there are definitely a ton of listings over $999k as well. What I’ve noticed is that anything that clearly would have been under $1M (say even $700k) has been trending toward the magical $1M CMHC limit, because that is where the maximum number of buyers are.

The strange part is, you now have fully-built move-in houses only a few hundred grand apart from tear-downs.

Compare the $999k tear-down I posted with say these for $1.2M to $1.3M:
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=14183485&PidKey=-2070569207
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=14221101&PidKey=-36331577
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=14130157&PidKey=-157323805

So, whoever buys that $999k place is hoping to sell for like $1.8M+… getting up to where even the 1%-ers can’t really afford it.

#207 shane on 03.30.14 at 9:45 am

Garth, was out looking at open houses in pickering yesterday for the first time in a few years. Let me tell you I couldn’t believe how busy it was at every house I went to..I was looking at houses between 600k-750k

#208 Ralph Cramdown on 03.30.14 at 10:27 am

I’d just like to voice how pleased I am with Canada’s “recovery.” One of the smaller among Canada’s big 5 banks welcomes the new Minister into Finance with a kick in the ‘nads, simultaneously issuing a press release highlighting his impotence. “We warned him that the nutshot was coming,” says BMO CEO. “Please, sir, may I have another” whines Minister Oliver.

Across the street at the BoC, Poloz goes on record saying that, after careful study, his best models say that anecdote is indeed the singular of data, and that prior model outputs, which did not take into account the observations of panhandlers on Bank Street, were perhaps overly optimistic.

Back at Finance, the Federal government announces a two billion dollar surplus for the month. Did you notice the $60 missing from your wallet? Divvy up $2b among all breathing Canadians…

#209 Daisy Mae on 03.30.14 at 10:46 am

#168 MAXX: ‘Preservation of wealth and obviating government-imposed financial damage is now the order of the day. After a few years, this efficient mind-set will never turn round.”

*********************

Very well said. Consumers, on a global scale, will never go back to the way it was when this is over…. just as those who lived thru the Great Depression ALWAYS remained frugal to their dying day.

‘Once burned, twice shy.’

#210 Linda Mulligan on 03.30.14 at 10:57 am

So here is the question – IF deflation does indeed infect North America (Europe it seems has admitted deflation has been detected & is spreading fast) what does that mean for interest rates? Will not the government have to keep rates low or see the return of Depression like economic conditions? Or will they have to raise rates to battle the deflation demon? If they have to keep rates low then all the RE crash potential goes away, no?

#211 Penny Henny on 03.30.14 at 11:04 am

smoking man and old man-
this one is for you
http://www.wwf.ca/about_us/experts/david_miller.cfm

the anti rofo

#212 George on 03.30.14 at 11:05 am

@ The Cat Food Lady #204

That is a brilliant comment! You say it doesn’t make sense. It actually makes a lot of sense. I think you are bang on. Besides the fact that all young people have ever seen is housing prices go up in value and besides the fact that there are very few other opportunities for people of modest means to experience upward social mobility other than real estate appreciation, I think you are absolutely correct to point out that a house is tangible and it represents stability. A house is tangible and it represents stability–that is something this young generation is willing to go into a lifetime of debt for. You are absolutely correct that this generation of young people have grown up with divorce and rapid technological changes and this does create a sense of instability. Also, everything we do is virtual reality. Everything is on a screen these days. We don’t read books anymore, we read from screens. I saw a news report about how there was some coffee shop where they have lots of old typewriters for people to type on. Someone said the reason young hipsters like typing on those old Remington Rands is because at the end of it, they get a piece of paper with their writing on it–it is something physical and tangible. You can hold it in your hands. There really is a desire for things like that among the 20 and 30 somethings. Sometimes you need to just be able to physically touch and hold the fruits of your labours–it’s not good enough to just look at numbers on a screen (investments in stocks), people want to be able to touch and hold their investments. Maybe this has something to do with the rise in gold bugs too.

#213 Condo Minion on 03.30.14 at 11:17 am

#209 Daisy Mae

Very true about consumers. Wages are flat, economy sagging, inflation creeping. The energy to pump up RE is leaking away.

Just this weekend, doing the usual food shopping, I noticed another half dozen products we usually buy scamming us with smaller packaging and similar or higher prices. “Sale prices” are based on price points that have inflated 20% in the last few months. Bacon on sale at $3.99 – sounds okay, except the package is now 375g, not 500g. Loblaws is now selling chocolate milk for $1 – sound like your basic regular discount price. Except the container is now a mutant 750ml instead of the usual 1 litre. Too big for your lunch, too small to serve the kids, but apparently just the right size to dupe consumers that everything is normal, just carry on.

WTF is going on?

#214 Old Man on 03.30.14 at 11:46 am

#193 Rexx Rock – this is true and property taxes range from $50.00 to $150.00 per year with monthly condo fees at about $125.00 per month. New national taxation system has come down which nobody understands as yet; lots of negatives. It is all about control as big brother controls all with the banks; too much reporting; no cash transactions over $169 CAD; and all bank deposits over $1,300 are reported. Lots of new negatives and even the tax experts are confused by it all at this time, as everyone needs to have two numbers, and Vat must be reported every two weeks at a certain level electronically and be paid or face jail.

#215 Daisy Mae on 03.30.14 at 11:55 am

POSTERs QUOTE (from another site):

“The bankers, the know-it-alls and the intelligentsia told everyone in 1929 that everything was ok, the market was solid, etc. And then the market died on October 29, 1929.

Don’t be too confident in what the ‘experts’ say….”

#216 KommyKim on 03.30.14 at 11:58 am

RE: #202 World According To Garth on 03.30.14 at 3:19 am
#171 KommyKim on 03.29.14 at 6:36 pm
Please enlighten us on where you obtained your PhD in climate change Kimmy.

I don’t need one. I just listen to the 97% of scientists with a PhD who support current climate change theory.
I’m guessing that you are listening to the 3%……

#217 Son of Ponzi on 03.30.14 at 12:19 pm

Buffet:
“Buy when others are fearful”
How can he tell when others are fearful?
Dogs can smell fear. Get a dog and get rich.

#218 greg, oakville on 03.30.14 at 12:23 pm

for #44 Peter C.,
Note: Peter C., Please don’t reply to this post, as I don’t want to …

Being sunny today G can get some free D3 with Bandit helping.

P, have a look generally, and specifically at page 2 ‘other health effects’ 3rd paragraph.
http://candmz04.brenntag.ca/MSDS/En/00060388.pdf
I picked my hard copy up this past week to have the facts on hand. I might try losing my mind soon to, to get the job done ;)

And P you may be interested in this show 4th-6th generally, on Sunday April 6, note the 4-6pm talk.
http://www.totalhealthshow.com/showInfo/index.cfm?CFID=10001856&CFTOKEN=59785278

Like Bandit I too am wishing Garth a full recovery. And with some luck before bike season starts!

#219 Ronaldo on 03.30.14 at 12:29 pm

#210 Linda Mulligan –

”If they have to keep rates low then all the RE crash potential goes away, no?”

People without jobs don’t buy houses.

#220 World According To Garth on 03.30.14 at 12:48 pm

#216 KommyKim on 03.30.14 at 11:58 am
RE: #202 World According To Garth on 03.30.14 at 3:19 am
#171 KommyKim on 03.29.14 at 6:36 pm
Please enlighten us on where you obtained your PhD in climate change Kimmy.

I don’t need one. I just listen to the 97% of scientists with a PhD who support current climate change theory.
I’m guessing that you are listening to the 3%……
————————————

You guess correct. I listen to people with an actual background in what they preach that can prove things with fact.

I hope your not a govt worker who approves drugs and food for Cdns who only believes in “theories” from scientists. Cuz if you are the people of Canada are surely doomed.

#221 Andrew Woburn on 03.30.14 at 12:59 pm

How China buyers will help Australians who are priced out of the housing market

http://qz.com/192773/how-china-buyers-will-help-australians-who-are-priced-out-of-the-housing-market/

#222 OttawaMike on 03.30.14 at 1:08 pm

Kommy Kim and Bottoms Up,

I prefer to get all of my climate change and vaccine advise from eminent scientist, Donald Trump.
:>)

#223 Keith in Calgary on 03.30.14 at 1:40 pm

Aaaaaarrrgghhh !!!

Anyone else sick and f-ing tired of the “Canadian Action Plan” commercials ? I must have seen that damn thing 10 times this weekend.

What a bunch of crap.

#224 shawn on 03.30.14 at 1:41 pm

Who Buys Houses?

Ronaldo observes

People without jobs don’t buy houses.

***************************************
True, but people who buy houses buy houses.

Or at least people who bought houses bought houses.

A wise man observed: Predictions are difficult, particularly when they are about the future.

#225 colleen - oshawa on 03.30.14 at 2:10 pm

Just started reading your blogs thanks to my 28 year old son…. The intelligent insight, honestly and humour into current events stimulates my imagination wHether it makes me sad, happy or angry … I get it !!!
I’ve been influenced greatly by your opinions, the opinions of others and continue to share them with others (my contribution).

By the way, my first lesson taught: ‘Cash is gold’.
Again, thanks… you are a great educator!!

Take care of your health !

#226 KommyKim on 03.30.14 at 2:10 pm

RE: #223 Keith in Calgary on 03.30.14 at 1:40 pm
Aaaaaarrrgghhh !!!
Anyone else sick and f-ing tired of the “Canadian Action Plan” commercials ?

Yup! They actually have a website dedicated to it too:
http://actionplan.gc.ca/
Click if you dare! ^^^^^

I’m sure they intended the 3 arrows (Maybe borrowed from Japans Abenomics) represent one BIG arrow, but I think it looks like someone is flipping us the bird. It also looks kinda like a house. Maybe that is the plan!

#227 Debtfree on 03.30.14 at 2:16 pm

@223 KIC yes they make me want to puke . Who’s making the money ? Advertisers . Media outlet’s . Sign makers . And who knows who else is being feed off of the tax payers . Try and identify them . Even with all the money being spread out in this clear example of a propaganda campaign our unemployment rate has not changed . Is anyone else sick of hearing about a missing airliner yet ? The search could take years . Distraction ?

#228 Daisy Mae on 03.30.14 at 2:23 pm

#223 Keith in Calgary: “Aaaaaarrrgghhh !!!

Anyone else sick and f-ing tired of the “Canadian Action Plan” commercials ? I must have seen that damn thing 10 times this weekend.

What a bunch of crap.”

********************

Propaganda?

#229 Waterloo Resident on 03.30.14 at 2:24 pm

Who ever is worrying about the American dollar losing it’s status as the world’s reserve currency: You are correct to worry.

China and Russia is planning to purchase future amounts of Saudi oil using a mixed basket of Chinese/Russian currency.

America’s political elite don’t like this so a few days ago Obama (O-bummer) took an emergency flight to visit Saudi Arabia and give them a good talking to. From what I understand, they were warned that selling oil in anything other than U.S. dollars will be seen as a ‘terrorist’ action, and the U.S. will do whatever it feels is necessary to prevent such terrorist actions, including using the military if needed. So that was really interesting meeting Obama had with the Saudis, too bad it wasn’t televised.

Now here is where the bad news starts:

– America doesn’t make enough things to generate a positive cash flow, instead they import most stuff and export very little.

– The American government does not tax the people enough to pay for the debts and obligations and government spending currently occurring.

– To make up for the shortfall, the American government issues MASSIVE amounts of NEW DEBT. This is the same as turning on the printing presses to print more money.

– Without this printing of new money, the U.S. government would not have enough income from taxes to pay for their spending AND pay the interest on the debt.

– No country in the world can do this massive printing of cash. If they did their currency would quickly become WORTHLESS. The only reason America’s currency is not becoming worthless is because it is the world’s reserve currency.

– The ONLY reason the U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency is because there is currently no other way to buy Saudi oil other than to buy it using U.S. dollars.

– The moment massive amounts of Saudi oil is sold using anything other than U.S. dollars, that is the instant that the U.S. dollar stops being treated as the world’s reserve currency. And when that happens, interest rates on U.S. debt will shoot up to reflect the new risk premium seen on the American situation. Currently if that was to happen, interest rates in the U.S. would be closer to 12%, not the 0.25% it is now.

Now imagine what Canadian interest rates would be like if American rates were at 12%? Some people say that American rates might spike as high at 36%, but I think that is way too pessimistic.

Lets hope that the Saudis do not start selling oil in anything other than the U.S. dollar anytime soon, because if they do then…. well…. the SH!T is going to hit the fan big-time.

Unmitigated drivel. — Garth

#230 Fed-up on 03.30.14 at 2:32 pm

#199 Derek on 03.30.14 at 12:28 am

Another bullish analyst for Canadian RE. He has very good points.

http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/TV+Shows/Lang+%26+O%27Leary+Exchange/ID/2445183546/
—————————————————————————-

This guy is a clueless idiot, sorry. Nothing of value in his one sided arguments. I want 5 minutes of my life back.

#231 Aggregator on 03.30.14 at 2:52 pm

#221 Andrew Woburn

"That’s because foreign investors can buy only new homes, which encourages construction of new developments and boosts the overall housing supply."

For those who are familiar with what I've been saying on this blog again and gain, it's the presale market that poses the greatest risk to Canada and Australia's housing market.

The brokers talk condo investment

Platinum brokers are specialists in pre-construction condominium sales. They have forged close relationships with condo developers, based on track records of selling units in bulk (10 or more per project) to their clients, who are mainly investors. Their clients get first access, thus first choice and often special discounts, on condo suites in new projects.

There are typically five stages of sales when a condo project is introduced to the market: The first is an event for the platinum brokers a developer regularly works with; second comes a VIP event; the third is for the general broker population; fourth is the launch for pre-registrants. Last comes the grand opening of the project to the general public and by this many of the units in sought-after projects are already sold.

Get that? There are four levels of speculation before condos even reach the general public! Those five idiots standing in the picture have no clue that their job is pretty much equivalant to a CME grain trader hedging on margin, and even worse, they don't know what presale forward trading is, where it started and why it was developed in the place!

Believe me, we don't get into discussions here about forward housing analysis like they do in China and Hong Kong, but I assure you that is exactly what the Bank of Canada alluded to in their reports regarding Canada's preconstruction market. The only thing you need to understand is that a 15% down payment on a resale is not the same as a 15% on a deposit structure for forward delivery (a unit built in a few years). The way the presale market is structured makes leverge multiple times higher because the asset has a fixed price with a maturity date.

We've never seen this amount of leverage in housing, nor was it as sizebale and prevalent in the US housing crash. This not only makes Canada the most overvalued in the world, but also the most levered!

Yet everyone just trundles along with rising expecations when alarm bells should be ringing. This is why the Bank of Canada is worried — as all they can do at this point is sit back and pray nothing happens, but as we know from markets that trade multiple times higher then an asset's fundamental value; when an accident is waiting to happen, it eventually does.

#232 Old Man on 03.30.14 at 3:14 pm

#213 Condo Minion – We are paying more for less is what is going on. I see a sale on this week to buy one chicken and get one for free, so talked to a retired farmer. He said its a wholesale dump by the producer as these are old hens that need to go that are below quality eating.

#233 jd on 03.30.14 at 3:39 pm

This is so blatantly biased that it is comic to read, more than painful just plain funny:

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/03/27/canada-homebuyer-investment/

#234 World Traveller on 03.30.14 at 3:53 pm

#132 airhead princess on 03.29.14 at 12:30 pm

PS…lowering rates has just made my house more valuable…..yayyy for lower rates…..more customers for me.

***

Why? Do you run a brothel?

#235 peep on 03.30.14 at 4:09 pm

Garth, how much $ for a signed copy of that x-ray?

#236 H on 03.30.14 at 4:48 pm

RE: #223 Keith in Calgary on 03.30.14 at 1:40 pm
Aaaaaarrrgghhh !!!
Anyone else sick and f-ing tired of the “Canadian Action Plan” commercials ?

—-
The commercials Are the ‘action plan’; you see advertisers are abandoning traditional media because viewers and readers have abandoned traditional media; at some point everyone figures they’re being lied to. So we take your tax dollars and give it to our friends in traditional media for our propaganda. It’s basically a ‘media tax’, which many European taxpayers enjoy, but we prefer stealth. I urge you to email your MP with your thoughts.

#237 gut check on 03.30.14 at 5:55 pm

#232 Old Man on 03.30.14 at 3:14 pm

We are paying more for less is what is going on. I see a sale on this week to buy one chicken and get one for free, so talked to a retired farmer. He said its a wholesale dump by the producer as these are old hens that need to go that are below quality eating.
_______________________________________

That reminds me … about 2 months ago I remarked that the sale on Pringles Salt and Vinegar flavour chips seemed to be going on and on and on and that it was odd that it’d be the same at all stores. I said at the time that there must be something wrong with them and they were dumping them into the market.

It wasn’t a few days later when we saw the recall notices in the paper. They were recalling them for ‘traces of milk product’ in the chips, apparently.

I do wonder very often about the food they are letting into the system these days. Frankly I find it frightening.

#238 Daisy Mae on 03.30.14 at 7:59 pm

#237 Gut Check: “Frankly I find it frightening.”

*****************

We’re becoming more paranoid and suspicious by the day…sad.

#239 Derek R on 03.31.14 at 2:05 am

#210 Linda Mulligan on 03.30.14 at 10:57 am asked:
So here is the question – IF deflation does indeed infect North America (Europe it seems has admitted deflation has been detected & is spreading fast) what does that mean for interest rates?

This is a very hard question to answer as deflation causes governments to drop interest rates and banks to raise them. Who wins out depends on the laws of the country concerned. In Canada the presence of CMHC probably means that interest rates will stay low for a while.

Will not the government have to keep rates low or see the return of Depression-like economic conditions?

Yes, that’s probably true. Although they will do it because they want to be re-elected and Depression-like conditions would punch a big hole in that.

Or will they have to raise rates to battle the deflation demon?

Raising rates will cause deflation. If you want to battle deflation you need to keep interest rates as low as possible.

If they have to keep rates low then all the RE crash potential goes away, no?

Afraid not. Other things can cause an RE crash. For instance, an increase in unemployment, a rise in taxes, a drop in the number of young people who afford a mortgage, etc.