The deniers

DOG SHADOW modified

When you live this long you begin to understand there’s a rough sort of justice to life. Most people reap what they sow. Myopia and prejudice usually end in hurt. Common knowledge almost always isn’t.

Two examples. The haters who piled on yesterday’s blog to dis the French and tell us Alberta or Toronto would be stronger if a region with 20% of the national economy split are sputtering idiots. Hopefully they’ll never learn what forex markets do to currencies of cleaving countries or how bond traders react to more risk, causing a bloat in mortgage rates. The dippiness of posters, especially those from Alberta, was epic.

Equally, real estate. Another day, more denial. The Globe carried a story this week about ‘Why the doomsayers are wrong about Canada’s housing market.’ It proved nothing. Meanwhile mortgage broker-economist Wilf Dunning issued a report claiming home prices have room to jump another 20-25% (taking the average Vancouver SFH to $1.62 million) although more diddling with mortgage rules by Ottawa could ruin everything. “Once prices start to fall, the outcome is unpredictable,” says he.

Of course, as you know, folks have never been as indebted as they are now. Wages and salaries are festering. Almost 30% of young adults live in the basement. Boomers have real estate wealth, but scant amounts of investments or money. Real estate’s a bigger part of the economy than manufacturing or oil and gas. And detached house prices in Toronto have risen 15% in a year, while inflation’s under 2%.

How can assertions that everything is normal even pass the smell test?

Many others stare at us in disbelief and wonder the same.

American Alex Dvorkin runs a successful hedge fund, and blogs. Yesterday he wrote this:

If you thought California real estate was expensive, take a look north of the border. The situation in Canada is equivalent to the hottest markets in the US, with one primary difference. Canadian real estate was a late bloomer and their speculative cycle didn’t really get going until after 2002. Since their real estate cycle was about 8 years behind, they were not impacted by the real estate collapse in the US. Further, when the next round of financing (by the FED) showed up in 2008, Canadian real estate simply continued to accelerate as if nothing had happened.

Basically, Canadian real estate is where the US real estate was 8 years ago. The cycles confirm that as well. When this particular liquidity party ends (happening now) and the stock market shifts into the bear market, I would fully expect Canadian real estate to collapse. It is never different.

Hmm. Collapse. Bummer. Meanwhile the US-based Dr. Housing Bubble blog also looked north this week, and was left agog at what it sees going on in Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver:

Leave it to our neighbors to the north to show us how it is done for a real housing mania.  For the first time in history we have experienced coordinated global housing bubbles courtesy of central banks following very similar policies.  The addiction to debt isn’t only a U.S. born condition.  While the recent U.S. market is dominated by low supply and massive investor buying, Canada continues to see rising home prices even right through the global Great Recession.  The Canadians interestingly enough also face similar dilemmas between older and younger generations.  Many young professionals are fully priced out of the real estate market even when they are working at relatively good careers.  Many battle it out in the condo markets were even in this market prices are inflated.  Canada has an incredibly heavy reliance on real estate, more so than the United States and their household debt ratios make the U.S. look like a frugal uncle.  One fascinating story highlights a similar story to what many baby boomers here in the U.S. are facing with their offspring.  They face the reality that they are house rich but cash poor.

That ‘fascinating story’ actually came from this pathetic blog a few days ago, as I described the house-rich, asset-poor Mississauga boomers with their $900,000 digs and the 28-year-old well-employed son who could never aspire (or want) to buy it from them. The question raised was simple: once people drive real estate into orbit and put all their wealth in one place, what next? How do they get it out when the buyers can’t buy? When rates rise, or tastes change, or crap (like a Quebec referendum) happens? Where did common sense go?

A glimmer of it has managed to get through. CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld did an unbankerly thing this week and dumped on former Bank of Canada boss (and blog dog) Mark Carney. With a high-dollar, low-rate policy Carney lured ‘hot money’ to Canada and allowed massive real estate speculation to skew the economy.

“In effect, monetary and exchange rate policy traded off more condos for fewer factories. The legacy of … plant closures will be with us for years to come,” he said. Justly. Carney’s greatest crime was “keeping interest rates low enough to stimulate housing and domestic consumption,” which has given us a forest of condo cranes, temporary construction jobs and shuttered factories.

That won’t end well.

Brave Avery. Boldly saying the emperor’s naked. These days, a rare man.

153 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 03.12.14 at 7:11 pm

Generation Rex.

– TSX outperformance is delivered as predicted: Metals(!)

“The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday edition after a year of doldrums in the equities business, the first two months of 2014 have shown a remarkable turnaround. The Globe’s Boyd Erman writes average daily volumes of 348 million shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange so far in 2014 are bigger than the averages set in the full years of 2013 or 2012. Companies are taking advantage to raise money. Mr. Erman explains Canada is no longer a laggard. Many metals stocks staged a rally in January and February, as did natural gas producers, helping the TSX composite index to achieve its current status as the best-performing equities index in North America so far in 2014. That helped the TSX achieve its current status as the best-performing equities index in North America so far in 2014. …

© 2014 Canjex Publishing Ltd.”

#2 Mark on 03.12.14 at 7:11 pm

Prices have been falling across the country. The poor Realtor must be clinging to doctored “statistics”, or simply ignorant of the significant change in the sales mix in the post-CMHC change era approximately a year ago.

#3 mitzerboy on 03.12.14 at 7:23 pm

I know people who bought a new condo in the Queen city last spring and are trying to sell now ….they cant git what they they paid for it…..been on market all winter…

great pic and blog again garth…u old dogg

#4 kabloona on 03.12.14 at 7:26 pm

“…exchange rate policy trad(ing) off more condos for fewer factories (in Ontario)….”

Ouch! Sounds like Steve-O-nomics in a nutshell…

But wait! The South Koreans will save us once we export all those dead animal carcases from Alberta in exchange for Samsung phones, LG television sets, and Kia automobiles…..

;-)

#5 Not 1st on 03.12.14 at 7:27 pm

I for one an not falling for the Quebec guilt card threat again. They should vote and live with the consequences. That “20%” of the economy was put there over the course of 6 prime ministers and most of it was nationally subsidized at the expense of the west and its generous transfer payments.

I suspect a lot of those companies will be relocating out here after the vote anyway. I guess we will let them but it doesnt matter cause our path to success is already assured.

#6 smartalox on 03.12.14 at 7:29 pm

Economic mayhem if Quebec separates? Not according to La Pauline, who assures us all that an independent Quebec would keep the Canadian dollar, and Quebecois would keep their Canadian passports.

It makes me wonder though, because the designs of Canadian money, and Canadian passports are two of the most tangible and prolific manifestations of Canadian culture forced on Quebecois. Our coins and bills are all adorned with pictures of the English Queen, and Federalist politicians!

If Quebec separatists are truly motivated by cultural independence, it would do them well to consider what their money would look like. It might spark a wider discussion on what sort of planning it would take to build an economy that could sustain an independent currency.

And if a plan were to exist that could transform Quebec’s economy into something robust enough to support its own currency, why isn’t the PQ running on THAT as a platform?

#7 jess on 03.12.14 at 7:43 pm

According to the statement of facts, Bachmann was effectively told by the chief executive officer for the subsidiary, “Mr. Bachmann, you know what we expect of you, don’t get caught.”

http://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/2014/March/14-tax-260.html

=
Brussels, March 11th 2014

European Parliament gives overwhelming ‘yes’ vote of 643 to 30 to end secret corporate ownership

http://www.eurodad.org/Entries/view/1546169/2014/03/11/European-Parliament-gives-overwhelming-yes-vote-to-end-secret-corporate-ownership

#8 mark on 03.12.14 at 7:47 pm

The dangers of short-termism. Housing consumption eventually ends up eating your country. And those who put it all in place have already run away to their next high paying gig.

#9 Rainclouds on 03.12.14 at 7:49 pm

“Sputtering Idiots” What Blasphemy, surely you are aware of the brilliance of the Albertans. They invented Oil!

Of course what they did with OIL royalties over the decades was a bit shortsighted but yeeee haaawwww. were Albertan and we git er done.

#10 May on 03.12.14 at 8:00 pm

Watching with interest (ha! with interest) as the US HAMP program starts to reset in the US. There is risk of new round of defaults but maybe the numbers are too small to make much of a difference. People are still upside down on their homes 5 years later in the US.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/03/11/the-foreclosure-crisis-is-still-burning-years-after-the-housing-crisis-ended/?utm_content=buffer36aee&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

#11 Kilby on 03.12.14 at 8:04 pm

Well said Avery Shenfeld! this was obvious to anybody paying attention for years. Many of us used this knowledge to stay ahead of the game…

#12 Cici on 03.12.14 at 8:12 pm

Great post Garth,

I too was shocked, blind-sighted and incredibly impressed by Avery’s blast…many on the forums were questioning why he did not pipe up earlier, i.e. when Carney was actually here and had the chance to react.

Personally, I think that Avery and other bankers/economists have been silenced or at least “quieted” up to this point, but are now breaking out in sweat and full-on panic.

…As are the brokers and real estate pumpers. It’s all starting to look really dangerous now. So the pumpers are upping their antics, trying to instill new confidence in the housing sector while putting increased pressure on the government to cave in to their demands and keep funding their little party.

However, I think the bankers are in a state of alarm and crying panic to put pressure on the government to reign in the bubble before it bursts and splatters real estate slime-sludge goo on the entire economy. After all, if housing booms more and then goes bust, down goes the economy and the stock market, leaving the banks in an incredibly dire position…especially the banks with less diversified balance sheets, which are thus less equipped to weather a downturn.

#13 Smoking Man on 03.12.14 at 8:15 pm

Avery is wrong, as I showed on my Teranet Chart, no bubble till you see the hockey stick, study a chart where a bubble burst you will see it every time.

In case you missed it.

http://www.dyslexicsmokingman.blogspot.com

The gradual accent of Toronto prices on the index shows no fear or greed.

People couples make a lot of money in Toronto.

Remember lots of self employed people grossing millions but only drawing small salaries…

#14 Ben on 03.12.14 at 8:16 pm

Ah the poor boomers. Asset rich but cash poor. Must be such a bummer. It’s on a par with cash poor, asset poor young people Garth? No. All they have to do is downsize and they unlock hundreds of thousands of unearned wealth that comes straight from the kids.

There’s a generational apartheid out there. Don’t be a denier.

#15 Brendan on 03.12.14 at 8:17 pm

Generational homes may be the answer for some. It works in many cultures in Europe and Asia. The home in practice belongs to the family, not the individual, and it gets passed through the generations. If the kids living at home working good jobs pay rent until boomer Mom and Dad pass on with the arrangement that they inherit the house it could be a viable way to go especially in TO and VAN.

#16 I'm stupid on 03.12.14 at 8:20 pm

“One once of gold can never buy a second of time”

I almost lost my life today. I smashed into the centre barrier on the 407. Luckily, I was wearing my seat belt and the highway wasn’t busy or it would have been catastrophic. My car is in a million pieces but my body (with the exception of a few pains) is fine. The car can be replaced.

The reason I’m sharing this today is because tomorrow isn’t guaranteed. Everyone should live a balanced life. Why commit suicide by house and never seeing or doing the things you always dreamt of? As I was sliding into the concrete barrier a million things passed threw my head. I thought of my family, my life, all the things I still wanted to see and do, all the things I’ve done. I didn’t think of money or houses or material things. I’m at home now resting and thinking about it. It’s amazing how we are distracted by meaningless things. I’m not suggesting go out and blow the farm but think about what’s important, as I am right now.

#17 X on 03.12.14 at 8:21 pm

The new normal is higher house prices, even when rates normalize.

Changes made do make it easier to buy a home, which will increase the statistical ‘normal’ for RE. A buyer only has to put 5% down now, not 10%, and they can borrow from their RRSP’s.

Having said that Re is grossly overpriced, hopefully more changes will come to the RE market to bring it to reality.

#18 Smoking Man on 03.12.14 at 8:27 pm

Two examples. The haters who piled on yesterday’s blog to dis the French-GARTH

What did you think was going to happen, this is Canada.

No one interested in building there own empires, canadians always looking at what others have , rather than focusing on what they can have.

Canadians are weirdos.. Wackjobs.

#19 Cici on 03.12.14 at 8:35 pm

#6 smartalox

Don’t worry…I guarantee you that they are already thinking about these things, and are even smartaloxer than you.

Every heard of empty pre-election promises? This appears to be a prime example of the phenomenon.

#20 bothsidesnow on 03.12.14 at 8:35 pm

“That ‘fascinating story’ actually came from this pathetic blog a few days ago…”

That’s pretty funny….they lift stuff off from your blog and then you theirs. Like a dog chasing its tail. That successful US hedge fund guy said our real estate kept going through 2008….not quite. Van prices cascaded down 30%, then only some select areas and specific types of dwellings rebounded past their previous highs. The suburbs have never recovered to their highs before the 2008/2009 crisis.

#21 Sean on 03.12.14 at 8:36 pm

Didn’t even read yesterday’s comments, but am sure there were many ignorant, uninformed comments from the stereotypical westerners…

So, as a born and bred Quebecer (now an expat), let me say the following.. let the ignorant, racist f^%$ers have their referendum.. and let them reap what they sow.

As an anglophone child in Quebec, I was regularly harassed and insulted by cowardly, hateful bureaucrats, making their way home from their jobs in Quebec City… “you’re in our country, speak our f*^*ing language” they would yell at myself and my friends, making our way home from high school. “You lost the f*%^ing war, now shut the f&*& up” we’d tell them.

Let me tell you, nationalist Quebecers are some of the most hateful, despicable scum you will find. I know how that sounds, but Garth (and others), if you didn’t grow up there, and haven’t lived it, you just aren’t speaking from experience.

We would do well, as Canadians, to not tolerate the bigotry and human rights violations that are not only accepted, but are in fact written into law in Quebec. It is appalling! And yet we pussy foot around the issue.

The rest of Canada has an obligation to tell Quebec how we choose to deal with treason… ok not death penalty, fair enough. But, if they vote to separate, no C$, no passports, no military (the list goes on).. and in fact, we will sue them in international courts for damages in terms of losses in international trade, foreign exchange, etc. This will accomplish nothing, or course, other than to let Quebecers know how the rest of Canada really feels.

Jesus.. I am tired just thinking about this. Now I know why I left Quebec!

#22 guelphstudent on 03.12.14 at 8:40 pm

#13 Smoking Man

There was a hockey stick in Richmond Hill ON,

They are greedy!

http://bit.ly/Pv3FVY

Prices were up 88% in one year!

#23 Frustrated Kiwi on 03.12.14 at 8:43 pm

Hmm, the good doctor got your blog’s name wrong. Great fool is somewhat poetic though.

In other news, the reserve bank of NZ raised the official cash rate by 0.25. First country in the developed world to do so post crisis (or that’s what our news said). Just thought some might be interested.

#24 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.14 at 8:45 pm

Was on the ferry heading from Vancouver Island to the mainland last Friday. As passengers were leaving their cars and walking up the stairs to the main decks a 30 something man was LOUDLY berating his young (6) son with an expletive laced rant. When an elderly lady of Asian heritage made a comment he yelled obscenities at her and then noticed how many people had stopped and were staring. He went back down the stairs to his car.
The ferry arrived in Tsawassen and it took a while for all the vehicles to unload.
The reason.
Cops had Mr. Knucklehead pulled over.
Alberta plates………….

#25 Dr. Wu on 03.12.14 at 8:47 pm

Many young professionals are fully priced out of the real estate market even when they are working at relatively good careers.

Good careers can’t keep up. Take the best neighborhoods in TO, guess what? The best paying, most respected professions you can think of don’t live there.

Salaries and wages?

They went to Mechindia

#26 Freedom First on 03.12.14 at 8:49 pm

Thanks Garth. Enjoyed the American Bloggers. Many countries have gone before us into a house buying mass mania orgy followed by a financially castrating massive Foreclosure massacre. Extreme pain with no anaesthetic, except for the too big to fail banks. And now, the already financially neutered millions of people in those already Foreclosed countries are looking at the Canadian “hosing” market in castrated amazement. “The deniers”. Perfect headline. Unable to see the knife.

#27 Cici on 03.12.14 at 8:49 pm

#16 I’m stupid

Glad you are OK!

I hope the snow was at fault, not perusing of For Sales signs along the 401 or smartphone browsing at the wheel…

#28 joblo on 03.12.14 at 8:51 pm

More KIA’s?

#29 45north on 03.12.14 at 8:51 pm

Basically, Canadian real estate is where the US real estate was 8 years ago. The cycles confirm that as well. When this particular liquidity party ends (happening now) and the stock market shifts into the bear market, I would fully expect Canadian real estate to collapse.

In 2005 the US housing blogs warned of a collapse. Two years later they gave an up-front and personal description. The whole thing is on-line right now, you can look it up. All of it. Across the US the average price fell 30%. That’s the average. Some areas fell 50%.

The best we can hope for is a 30% fall. The US was able to lower its interest rate to cushion the fall. Canada cannot – it’s already as low as it can be. I think that Roncesvalles in Toronto will fall less but even there there is going to be bitter disappointment. Garth gave us the example of 325 Perth that sold for $848,000.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2014/01/23/the-wars/

I got to say 325 Perth will be lucky to have a drop of only 30%. What about Woodbridge, rows and rows of houses heavily mortgaged? Canadian politics is unprepared for what is about to happen.

#30 Babblemaster on 03.12.14 at 8:53 pm

“And detached house prices in Toronto have risen 15% in a year, while inflation’s under 2%.” – Garth

—————————————————-

Exactly! It’s crazy. The fundamentals don’t seem to support it, but somehow SFH have risen 15%. So, Garth, why do you keep predicting a RE correction year-after-year when, year-after-year RE has maintained it’s upward trajectory. Personally, I don’t open my mouth about RE anymore.

#31 Smoking Man on 03.12.14 at 8:53 pm

Speaking of wackjobs, going over my manuscripts, they really suck.

I look up top every night, a gifted talented Word Smith, amazing vocabulary and talent.
A published author…

Yet he don’t do fiction, waist of talent.
I don’t think your comfortable in your own skin Sr Garth. The tie is always on to tight, what are you
hiding.?
Are you not capable of having wide open for crazy eyes, always frightened what suits on shit Street will think of a bit of fiction.

What a waste of an amazing skill.

Finance is so boring…

#32 Nemesis on 03.12.14 at 8:54 pm

#DrinkingLikeSmokingMan #JeMeSouviens #DiptychParables

http://youtu.be/18-oRTLIe3I

http://youtu.be/FDEp81c66Zw

#33 Waiting on 03.12.14 at 8:55 pm

#16
You sound pretty smart to me.
Keep aware of soft tissue damage, it may not show up for a couple of days.

#34 Dr. Wu on 03.12.14 at 8:55 pm

Salaries and wages?

There was a movie called “The Misfits”

“Beats wages, don’t it?”

The point is that wages are restrictive, especially when the Federal Government taxes you More when you work longer and harder (overtime), which is against Natural Law.

#35 Smoking Man on 03.12.14 at 9:15 pm

#22 guelphstudent on 03.12.14 at 8:40 pmhttp://bit.ly/Pv3FVY

That’s one mother of a stick. Monstrous.

You can’t go by average or medium price, two many variables..

Example, they say it’s 15% in one year, but on Teranet, it’s only 4%

Hardly a bubble

#36 MarcFromOttawa on 03.12.14 at 9:15 pm

We are different than the Americans.

We will have a correction but it will be uniquely Canadian.

No tears or jingle mail; more of a “grab your ankles”.

Canadian are used to that though, just look at the taxes we pay ;)

#37 Terry on 03.12.14 at 9:21 pm

Right here in Canada a political vacuum has been filled with a traitorous Premier with an agenda to break up this great country. Pauline Marois and her group of marketers will be hoodwinking hundreds of thousands of Quebeckers as they try to lead them to the edge of the abyss. Truly sad for all of us that should they succeed the economic, social and political damage that will be inflicted will cost us deeply. I truly hope the younger generation in Quebec are smart enough to see through their lies and deceit. It is in no one’s best interest to break-up Canada.

#38 High Plains Drifter on 03.12.14 at 9:30 pm

Very few in Alberta have a clue why a majority of Quebecois would want to leave Canada. One thing we are out here in Alberta is multicultural to the point where nobody trusts nobody and you learn “devil take the hindmost” young. Corporate power speaks loudly and permission is granted in Texas. 43 yrs. of the same government, no matter the scandal, shows the money power ruling over a forever fractured opposition. A relative unknown becomes Premier but boy does she know people, just no Albertans. Heck, it is bad here but B. C. might even see more reasons to become unglued. I suggest finding a candidate who speaks unity and leave the singing of “Hey Jude” to whatever is left of the Beatles.

#39 sheane wallace on 03.12.14 at 9:37 pm

There is a french thing in this, no one is guilty that Napoleon lost the wars, get over it.

France is the most intolerant country to foreigners.
Seriously, get over it.

Look at Germany, they at least learn from their mistakes.

Quebec would be a great place with friendlier population.

#40 Blase on 03.12.14 at 9:37 pm

Why do easterners hate westerners for despising Quebec voting on leaving Canada? Should Westerners appreciate Quebecers disloyalty to the country they were born into? Quebec gets billions from other provinces, inordinate federal jobs and money, politicians bending over to appease them for the last 30 years, and when the economy starts to falter, the first thing they look to do is bail out. And Westerners are idiots? I think some Easterners have battered-Anglophone syndrome.

#41 No Money Down on 03.12.14 at 9:41 pm

Good call Avery. 8 months after Mr. Carney departed for England.

#42 sheane wallace on 03.12.14 at 9:42 pm

#30 Babblemaster

————————-
It seems we defied gravity for a while and fundamentals don’t matter any more… until they do and then the system crashes/resets.

It will start with currencies or stock market, extend into bonds but it won’t be pretty. There is no free lunch and somebody has to pay for the rates suppression.

Look at the actions in gold today. Gold up while copper is beaten down. It seems gold is not a commodity after all.
GDXJ up 4 % today, one of the best investments I made late last year.

#43 sheane wallace on 03.12.14 at 9:51 pm

Mark Carney was the darling of the Canadian media.

He and F caused more damage to this economy than a war would do. Avery got it right, capital misallocation is just one of the results, huge indebtedness is the other.

Generations are basically screwed. Unless they refuse to pay their dues which is the next act of the big play.
I would.

#44 East Van on 03.12.14 at 9:51 pm

2 humble suggestions:

Arrange your investments so the management fees are tax duductable.

Go to the Service Canada website. You can calculate your future CPP and OAS benefits.

#45 KommyKim on 03.12.14 at 9:52 pm

RE: #12 Cici on 03.12.14 at 8:12 pm
However, I think the bankers are in a state of alarm and crying panic to put pressure on the government to reign in the bubble before it bursts….

My banker doesn’t sound as keen on reigning in the RE bubble after I received this email today:

Dear Kim,
When it comes to big events like staying home with a new baby, going back to school or taking a sabbatical from work, a TD mortgage could give you the opportunity to take a payment vacation for up to four months.

2.97% 4‑Year Fixed Term Mortgage
Mortgage interest rate as of March 10, 2014

#46 Chris from Calgary on 03.12.14 at 9:52 pm

What really perturbs me are food packages on grocery shelves that have the French language side facing out to the aisle. Sometimes I turn them around so the English side is facing the consumer.

#47 Uh Oh Canada on 03.12.14 at 9:58 pm

Dear commenters,

For this post, I suggest we bash the Albertans. We’ve already bashed the Quebeckers, HAM, Generation X/Y, Realestate agents, Baby Boomers, and Americans. So I think bashing the Albertans just about covers everyone.

Sincerely, Uh Oh.

PS- #16- thanks for sharing. I’ve had two of those moments in my life during my teen years. I have since smartened up but am always thankful for any reminders of what matters in life.

#48 gut check on 03.12.14 at 10:00 pm

#21 Sean,
I wanted to write to thank you for sharing that story of being a young anglophone in Quebec. In all of my life I’ve never heard anyone else recount what it was like. I understand where you are coming from – I had a very similar experience. I’d like to share it, too.

I was a little kid during Rene Levesque’s tenure (born right after the October Crisis in ’70 but left 6 years later.)

As a child I loved my mixed anglo/franco family, the Lachine rapids & Granby Zoo. The street I was born on was called Broadway. I could walk to the homes of many relatives and in my memory even winter was better in la Belle Province. However…

Tensions rose as the years passed. I was only a wee child when the insults, harassment and physical violence began. I was “hanglo” “maudite anglais” and even the women who ran the daycare got in on the action when they had the whole class sing mocking songs to me in French. My 15 year old neighbour left me with stitches after hurling a rock at my face, barely missing my eye. I also remember having to show paperwork to at the school to prove the government would allow me to attend.

As a kid I guess I didn’t realize that this was unusual and it took having my own child for me to reflect back on that experience in any meaningful way. I have ended up with seriously mixed feelings about the prospect of Quebec’s separation.

Having moved to Ontario and feeling the cold here (the people, not the weather) I still admire the fire of the Quebecois. The culture, the vivaciousness. I can’t help it that I wasn’t french by birth and so I’ll never be able to fight their fight with them, but in comparison to the nothingness of Ontario I truly believe that the ‘distinct society’ is worth them fighting for. They love their culture. I wish English Canada had one-hundredth of the pride French Canada has. And honestly, I wish I were a part of it.

On the other hand…. they hated me. Those people *hated* me – a six year old girl – just because of my language. They hurt me physically and mentally. One person sicced their husky dog on my mother as she brought it scraps from our table. I remember getting a pizza delivered and my parents inspecting it before they would serve it. I thought it was really weird but you know what? They found bugs under the pepperonis.

For 35 years I’ve wished that Quebeckers could figure out a way to fight for their rights without hating everyone else at the same time. If only they could get it through their heads that those two things are not mutually exclusive. In the meantime though I have to say that I’m leaning towards the grand experiment of separation for them. Honestly – let them go. Let the chips fall.

Au revoir.

#49 Macrath on 03.12.14 at 10:03 pm

#21 Sean

Those who have not experienced the situation fail to comprehend what it like being run out of town because you speak English even though you may be completely bilingual and your French friends are called traitors for associating with you. It`s really sickening and yet they have been getting away with it for years.
Mention any of this to a politician and they slither under the rock from whence they came.

Garth, freedom and justice just might be worth a little financial anguish.

Stop being tribal. — Garth

#50 joe schmoe on 03.12.14 at 10:07 pm

Emotion aside on the Quebec issue….

How the hell do I make money on this?

I don’t really care about politics anymore. I read the “articles” on our subsidized news agency and private rags…and I shake my head in disdain at pretty much both sides of the issue.

I just need to figure out how to keep ahead of it.

And if anyone has a get rich quick scheme, I’m ready to buy!

#51 MrHulot on 03.12.14 at 10:11 pm

Avery is not so brave because he should have commented when monetary policy was being implemented then instead of stating the obvious now.

#52 Smoking Man on 03.12.14 at 10:21 pm

16 I’m stupid on 03.12.14 at 8:20 pm

That was God warning you to be nice to the smoking man, lately you’ve been chipping me. He don’t like that.

Even though I don’t believe in the bastard, he believes in me. Why I have no God damn idea.

I think I’m his entertainment monkey, loves to torture me everyday, just to get a reaction.

He’s truly demented…

I have everything a man can want yet, something is missing.

I have all these ideas exploding in my head, yet, in front of the keyboard, boom they go blank and I hear a crazy laughter from the heavens..

So just saying be nice to smoking man. God has my back for his own demented reasons.

#53 Z on 03.12.14 at 10:31 pm

Just to point out how good our mass media are, they are reporting the text of Will Dunning everywhere without any comment on the credibility of it. Here some example:

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/meddling-with-mortgage-rules-could-create-unpredictable-housing-market-report-1.1725670

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ottawa-s-dangerous-meddling-biggest-threat-to-housing-economist-1.2569851

http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Ottawa+meddling+high+prices+main+threat+Canadian+housing/9608767/story.html

Not even sure they validate his credentials as an “economist”. Also sine there is not even one argument in the text backing his point, its not even worth reading.

And about the Quebec politic, quebecers may be naive enough to elect the PQ, but I think they won’t go for something as dumb as a separation. The kind of separation they are talking about will be more like being a state of Canada than being a country. And don’t forget that separations always come up with a high price tag.

#54 Scully on 03.12.14 at 10:31 pm

#16
After dealing with cancer I am going through the same thing. It’s making me very, very restless. Glad you are ok.

#55 Marco Polo on 03.12.14 at 10:31 pm

Let’s solve this Quebec referendum fairly, and for the final time.

I propose we don’t have a single provincial referendum, but each county in Quebec has the referendum. The counties can unite, and form this new country.

We’s lose Quebec city and surrounding area, but not much more. It’s worth the risk.

There would be zero guarantees for this new country. They could trade with whomever they liked, but not Canada. No military, no foreign service, nothing provided for them. A fresh start in this divorce.

Bon voyage!

#56 Robbie on 03.12.14 at 10:31 pm

#30 Babblemaster

As Garth has oft pointed out, Real Estate is local. Where I now live (Greater Victoria area), prices are now mostly back to about 2005/2006 levels. Vancouver and Toronto do not comprise all of Canada…except perhaps in the minds of those who live there! :)

What cannot go on indefinitely…won’t. And housing price rises in excess of wage increases cannot go on indefinitely…the worse the disparity between the two and the longer it goes on, the worse the resulting correction/crash.

I bought a very nice home in a Vancouver suburb for $288,000 in 2000. That was $5000 more than the Sellers had paid for it, brand-new, in early 1990. After purchase, it still did not increase in value for several years. So, over approximately 14 years, the total appreciation in value was under 2% (approx. 0.13% a year)

#57 ozy - the will INHERIT after 20y living in KONDO FOREST on 03.12.14 at 10:45 pm

The youngster will INHERIT after 20y living in KONDO FOREST, when they retire – will have access to decent living, nothing stops them from making better $$$$ – but being in bars all night long….does not make money (well, except for the johns)

retirees will sell to HAM

#58 Dee on 03.12.14 at 10:47 pm

Garth,

I agree with your conclusions on Canadian real estate, and am not arguing with any of that. But I do want to say, regarding today’s post, that this Alex Dvorkin character seems a little…uh…

http://www.investwithalex.com/nuclear-world-war-3-coming-soon/

…touched?

Love the blog. Thanks for keeping on.

#59 Steve French on 03.12.14 at 10:49 pm

DELETED.

&*#$%!

#60 Drill Baby Drill on 03.12.14 at 10:51 pm

Dear Pathetic blog; “especially from Alberta” really ?? By my count Ontario took the cake !! Your Alberta negative bias is well documented and yes I am French Canadian from Alta and I did live in La Belle Province. We are screwed if we let the separatist rule the news channels.

#61 Nemesis on 03.12.14 at 11:03 pm

@I’mStupid/#16…

“Stupid is as stupid does.”, said Forrest…

I would add to that, “To err is human.”

This is for you:

http://youtu.be/fRq5bfiiPl8

[NoteToSaltyDogz: Nothing rearranges your ‘priorities’ like NearDeathExperiences. NoteToGT: Recognize the Canadian on the KeyBoards?]

#62 Macrath on 03.12.14 at 11:03 pm

Stop being tribal. — Garth

Funny, last referendum it was the first nations tribes that spoiled the separatists party and not anyone in Qttawa.

#63 nonplused on 03.12.14 at 11:04 pm

Hey why you got to diss Albertans? Quebec has been on the way out for so long we just may as well wish them the best.

Ya sure they may be 20% of the Canadian economy, but it isn’t going to go away. I personally don’t think separation would change much, as long as the national debt is split appropriately. Of course if they won’t take 20% of the debt we got a problem. Time to send in the tanks. Do we have any tanks? Maybe we can borrow some.

Seems my whole adult life there has been is talk of separation. Well get on with it already! Let’s put the issue to rest one way or another. Either way we still get to keep poutine. And the Montreal Quebecer’s will suck just as bad as the Canadians do now. Molson might have to relocate.

It doesn’t matter whether a marriage, a soft ball team, or a work situation, if someone is unhappy it’s usually better for everyone if they leave. I don’t know that you can scale that to provinces, but I’d rather give it a shot than live in fear that our country will collapse if Quebec stops sending MP’s to Ottawa.

And I think the 20% economy argument is spurious. Sure, the number might be true. Maybe that’s how it stacks up. But it’s still their economy not anybody else’s, and I think the great poutine and table dancing trade will continue unabated.

The only thing I can’t figure out is what they hope to gain. Canada is not so bad a federation to belong to. There must be a few oligarchs that think they will gain but other than that what’s the benefit? More French language laws? Subsidized poutine? Subsidized table dancing?

But on the plus side Air Canada can stop with all the duplicate announcements. The savings right there would be worth it.

I think Quebec separation would have much less of a global impact than say Texas succeeding from the US.

#64 45north on 03.12.14 at 11:10 pm

Gut Check : On the other hand…. they hated me. Those people hated me – a six year old girl – just because of my language.

thanks for your story. I have spent considerable time in la belle province but as a guest. I speak passable French. I am always treated well.

#65 800 RMK on 03.12.14 at 11:17 pm

Ya Garth you are right. Dippy Alberta posters. But this dippy poster from Saskatchewan actually knows how to analyze a set of numbers.

You want to brag that 8.2 Million people in Quebec (23.3% of Canadian population) make up 19.7% of the economy – and as other posters have said, how much of the transfers payments that Quebec leeches off of hard working Canadians in other provinces, makes up this 19.7%???

There is absolutely no comparison to 4.0 Million people in Alberta (11.4% of Canadian population) who make up 17.1% of the economy and 1.1 Million people in Saskatchewan (3.1% of Canadian population) who make up 4.0% of the economy. If you can’t see without breaking out percentage comparison based upon population, how pathetic Quebecs contribution is to this country then you need a new calculator.

Actually your support for the might Quebec economy (cough, cough) starts to smell a lot like real estate statistics pumped out by the boards across the country.

I get it. Yours is bigger than theirs. Very agricultural of you. — Garth

#66 Calgary Car Guy on 03.12.14 at 11:24 pm

Re #21 Sean and #48 gut check. Thank you both for those very enlightening posts. They say a lot. Quebec has been a thorn in Canada’s side forever and the actions you two describe really make me feel they should go their own way. Whatever damage to the economy occurs so be it. It will be well worth it. Signed—another dippy wack-job Albertan.

#67 BG on 03.12.14 at 11:25 pm

#39 sheane wallace on 03.12.14 at 9:37 pm
There is a french thing in this, no one is guilty that Napoleon lost the wars, get over it.

France is the most intolerant country to foreigners.
Seriously, get over it.

Look at Germany, they at least learn from their mistakes.

Quebec would be a great place with friendlier population.
**********************************************

What does Napoleon has to do with Quebec?

#68 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 03.12.14 at 11:28 pm

ST. GARTH: NO PIED PIPER, JUST A FRUSTRATED ONLOOKER OF THE DAMNED

It must be tough, over the past half decade at least, to write columns warning various grades of dolts about the pain they will undergo when a giant iceberg with their name carved on it heaves into sight and they don’t quickly change course.

The iceberg is a metaphor, dummy, and it bespeaks of higher interest rates.

Ah yes. Higher interest rates. OK. Based on the last six years higher interest rates have been a joke because they haven’t YET meaningfully materialized. Ah yes that word YET.

May the joke continue, many cliff hangers must be hoping, as they order up another groovy pizza and a lattee with their spinach salad on another one of their deep-fried credit cards.

The point I see in Mr. Garth’s multi-year crusade to probe whatever remnants of common sense remain within the so-called minds of the real estate-damned everywhere, in the faint hope of correcting the situation, is this:

–unlike the speeds of Twitter and every other computer generated dopey app is that SOME THINGS TAKE TIME TO HAPPEN, especially quality things like building a new Ferrari, or Bugatti Veyron. Higher interest rates take time TOO. Mr. Market knows and he is a high quality guy. Patience Jackass, Patience;

–it’s near impossible to accurately (whatever that means) predict the future;

–but when it shows up, as a mortgage interest rate “adjustment” notice in your mail (take those things seriously, folks), please don’t whine, kvetch and demand a taxpayer bailout;

–that won’t happen because you are NOT: a too big to fail bank. You are a completely failed bloody little wretch! And you will pay and pay and pay and pay.

Just ask someone who was being charged 22.75 per cent in mortgage interest rates in 1981. Like me! Nightmare. We got rid on that Calgary abode by the skin of our teeth, a very close call indeed. Pure bloody luck was it. Broke even.

Young real estate purchasers, and older ones who’ve forgotten the past and have not heeded the saintly Garth, are bating the “tiger” and tigers bite, hard.

I get the impression that some real estate buyers feel they have actually fooled Mr. Market as they brag about 5% down and long amortizations on their 475 square foot box high up in the clouds, territory currently mostly occupied by Boeing and Airbus.

Like the Phoenix, indeed…

Keep up with the crusade St. Garth. Someone will allow him or herself to be saved…just a best prediction at this time. Ah, yes, predictions…

#69 Westcdn on 03.12.14 at 11:37 pm

My father was French but born in Saskatchewan. He moved back east because his father was mustard gassed at Ypres and was unable to continue as a farmer after WW1. My father disliked eastern French society as they were tightly controlled by both government and church. I might add his older brothers volunteered in WW2 (rules only allowed 3 brothers per family) My cousin was one of the “lucky” Canadians to survive the accidental bombing by an American pilot in Afghanistan during night fight training.
My favourite father story was the consequence of his leaving an IOU in the church collection dish but then as the 5th son his was pledged to the church.
He moved to Vancouver where I was born – he made sure I didn’t learn anything French. However, having a French surname allowed to pull a few fast ones when bilingualism was introduced to BC.
The thing I picked up was that French Quebec spent too much time living the past that never was and thinking they were robbed. I want no part of that stinking thinking. However, I have seen the bright side of French culture and would hate to see them leave Canada. Believe it or not, I consider myself as an anglo French Canadian. Maybe I should talk about my Métis bloodlines one day – I have stories.

#70 lucyl on 03.12.14 at 11:49 pm

Great read tonight, interesting that outsiders are taking notes on Canada’s housing market and debt levels when we seem not to care. Hockey Night in Quebec does not have the nice ring to it like Hockey Night in Canada, which will be of more concern than debt levels of Canadians.

#71 Quebec transfer payment receipts on 03.13.14 at 12:00 am

Two years ago QC was in receipt of 25 TIMES more federal equalization payments than Ontario which joined Quebec in becoming a “have-not” province.

Quebec received $8,500,000,000
Ontario received $ 350,000,000

PM H eventually realized he could not win additional conservative seats in Quebec by this means, yet, the dollar amounts have increased and the 25:1 ratio still holds today.

Where else could such a sweet deal be obtained by QC?

Alwyn

#72 Deniers on 03.13.14 at 12:14 am

Deniers? My advice is go with quality … the high the better … don’t get hosed … seams they last longer without wearing… gotta run … just got a call about laddering from financial adviser…

#73 RayofLight on 03.13.14 at 12:28 am

Separation is a dream only in the minds of some Boomers in Quebec. Follow the money,Quebec is going nowhere.

#74 Cici on 03.13.14 at 12:44 am

Wow, as an anglophone who moved to Quebec in 1995 (during the referendum) I have to say I feel very lucky: I barely spoke a word of French when I got here, and the French have been incredibly accomodating, kind and generous towards me.

I think a lot has changed since the Quiet Revolution, and of the people I know who are true seperatists (most of the French aren’t by the way), its all about love of language and culture, pride and political ideology, not hating anglophones.

#75 Son of Ponzi on 03.13.14 at 12:46 am

Deniers?
I’m sure you refer to “Ham Deniers”.

#76 Son of Ponzi on 03.13.14 at 12:59 am

What does Richmond Hill and Richmond have in common?
Rich Chinese.

#77 Ryan Perich on 03.13.14 at 1:06 am

in 2011, quebec has 2x (or 100 % more GDP) than the alberta population
assuming transfer payments were equal (LOL),
it should have 100 % more GDP
..and has 10 % more GDP only…(17 % vs 19 % of national GDP)
this is what we want to keep ? less than 50 % efficiency is a good thing ? maybe if you were an average government worker….then “bien sure, c’est tres bon !”

#78 Son of Ponzi on 03.13.14 at 1:08 am

What really perturbs me are food packages on grocery shelves that have the French language side facing out to the aisle. Sometimes I turn them around so the English side is facing the consumer.
———————————-
When I shop at T&T in Richmond, I try do the same thing, but there is no English side.
But I have to say, I still prefer Asian food over boring English cuisine.
Much more flavor and much cheaper.

#79 Happy Renting on 03.13.14 at 1:10 am

#16 I’m stupid on 03.12.14 at 8:20 pm

Happy to hear your injuries are minor. You’re right that seatbelts are critical for car crash survival. Glad you were wearing yours.

Close calls, tough times, and tragedies remind us to prioritize what’s important. Thank you for sharing your reminder with us.

#80 Retired Boomer - WI on 03.13.14 at 1:13 am

#16 I’m Stupid

Glad you survived well the encounter with the barrier.

Nothing like “almost death experience” to jar the priorities is there?

Now, remember the priorities.

Tonight’s blog is another warning, and a sad harbinger of tomorrow’s new reality. It is not different in Canada. You may pass with less turmoil than here in the US or, you may suffer more-much more-if Quebec decides “they’re MORE special.”

Should that happen, you may wish to consider a new name for the place: North Zimbabwe

#81 JL on 03.13.14 at 1:17 am

Looks like the bond market is not pricing in a very high likelihood of a sovereignty movement gaining serious traction. If they were why wouldn’t you see the downward pressure on prices and yields increasing already? Global bond investors aren’t as smart as Garth?? They don’t look 6-12 months ahead? Check the forward market on 5 and 10 year Canadian bonds, that tells the story.

#82 shocked! on 03.13.14 at 1:19 am

Dear Garth… the question still remains…what to do if you’re that “Mississauga” boomer couple sitting on a 900,000 property? I see two options…sell soon, or leverage to invest…both of which possess inherent difficulties, challenges and the “r” word…RISKS!
Leveraging seems like the more viable option, and seems to me to be the common sense approach. As many boomers begin to face this very dilemma, I wonder how many of them would choose to leverage over selling…I would hazard to guess…not many.

#83 chapter 9 on 03.13.14 at 1:22 am

In the province of Quebec they have a department that does nothing else but track down the most dangerous criminals in the province. The OQLF or “LANGUAGE GESTAPO”.
The words”soiled linen” were found on the laundry bins at Saint-Luc hospital in Montreal. Shocking!!
A restaurant owner had to find a new supplier. His crime? Plastic spoons from California had English stamped on the back.
Keep up the good work you will drive more good people and money out of the province!

#84 ptbobman on 03.13.14 at 1:27 am

This could surprise the West Coast anytime
http://www.latimes.com/local/la-me-triple-junction-quakes-20140312,0,2124861.story#axzz2voi8SxJ3

#85 Humpty Dumpty on 03.13.14 at 2:27 am

This is for all those fish heads who have no Common Sense and love to deny Common “knowledge”…..

A radioactive metal from the Fukushima nuclear plant disaster in Japan has been discovered in the Fraser Valley, causing researchers to raise the alarm about the long-term impact of radiation on B.C.’s west coast.

Examination of a soil sample from Kilby Provincial Park, near Agassiz, has for the first time in this province found Cesium 134, further evidence of Fukushima radioactivity being transported to Canada by air and water.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Troubled+waters+Nuclear+radiation+found+pose+health+concerns/9606269/story.html#ixzz2vowsTBvD

Here comes the glowing swan G….

#86 SLOWEST ROAD BUILDERS IN THE WORLD! BC on 03.13.14 at 2:35 am

Marc Carney and his den of thieves have had their way with us like sweet maidens on the English Coast when the Viking Raiders came to town.
We have been raped and he is gone like Baby Austins.
And in true Viking form, he has headed back to England for some more raping and pillaging!
Does anyone know why it takes BC 3 years to add one lane to highway 1? It took them 2 years to add a lane in the 90’s

#87 raisemyrent on 03.13.14 at 2:38 am

#16 I’m stupid on 03.12.14 at 8:20 pm
“One once of gold can never buy a second of time”

sorry to hear, but glad you’re ok overall. beware of what is, for the lack of a better term, called a concussion. Sudden deceleration may cause it. Refrain from drinking etc for a few days until you’re clear that you don’t see any neurological symptoms. yes, even if you didn’t smash your head. I’ms till recovering from mine (I was t-boned) 6 weeks later.

#88 blobby on 03.13.14 at 3:29 am

I wonder if, approaching 2015 – if the conservatives see they have no chance of winning.. If they’ll purposefully do something to pull the plug for the next guys coming in.

Afterall, when people start losing money on their properties – they wont blame themselves for overspending.. They’ll blame the current government for their “investment” dropping…

It’d be a sure fire way of making sure the next government would only last 4 years, and not get back in again any time soon.

#89 Jane24 on 03.13.14 at 3:35 am

I was also brought-up in small town Quebec and left for TO the day after I graduated university so did my entire graduating class from Concordia. As an Anglo I never felt comfortable in Quebec and the winters were killers.
As each of my brothers and sisters finished university, they hit the 401 despite being bilingual. In the end my parents followed to Ontario.

Hubby is an Italian Quebecer and despite him and all his family being mostly born in Quebec and speaking fluent French, they are all either unemployed or under-employed as they are not ‘pure wool’. This is the term the French use for those few original surnames that signify a true Quebecer. Such names have a stranglehold on govt jobs both provincial and federal. Others can’t get a look-in no matter how many languages they speak or degrees they have. Such hiring behaviour would be illegal in most of the civilised world.

I agree with another poster though that Montreal has vibes and Ontario is bloody boring. Ended up as many of you know on the south coast of England but strangely enough went to Paris for the weekend!!!!

#90 Freedom First on 03.13.14 at 4:25 am

#52 Smoking Man

Thanks for this much appreciated post. You remind me that the mind can be a most enjoyable playground. It is a gift.

#91 MarcFromOttawa on 03.13.14 at 5:24 am

#39 sheane

I believe you are wrong about the French.

They might seem racist to a lot of people who are not familiar with their culture but at least they have the balls to talk openly about problems facing their society.

#92 Notta Sheeple on 03.13.14 at 5:46 am

“………..In effect, monetary and exchange rate policy traded off more condos for fewer factories. The legacy of … plant closures will be with us for years to come,” he said……….”
=========================

Finally. Someone who gets it.

#93 Bob Loblaw on 03.13.14 at 7:03 am

Yeah, those Albertans got real uppity once we “let ’em in”, didn’t they?

#94 maxx on 03.13.14 at 7:03 am

#12 Cici on 03.12.14 at 8:12 pm

“Great post Garth,

I too was shocked, blind-sighted and incredibly impressed by Avery’s blast…many on the forums were questioning why he did not pipe up earlier, i.e. when Carney was actually here and had the chance to react.””

Good point. IMO, the reason most did not pipe up earlier is that they really thought that this hare-brained scheme would work. They’re smart, educated and all of a mindset, right?
The train is still running in that direction, albeit slowing, and some of the first-class passengers are getting out of their seats and heading for the exits.

#95 Steven on 03.13.14 at 7:51 am

How much is Canadian real estate worth?
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Toxic%2Bwaters%2BNuclear%2Bradiation%2Bfound%2Bpose%2Bhealth%2Bconcerns/9606269/story.html

As contaminated nuclear waste its resale value is negligible if not nonexistant. Which is why official radiation monitoring in Canada is shut down except for what is being done by citizens with geiger counters. The Canadian government has a lot to lose due to its shamefull support for real estate prices and its involvement in insuring mortgages.
Due to Fukushima, the next ice age and the WW3 that the powers that be are trying to start real estate in Canada won’t be worth the matches and gasoline needed to burn it all.

#96 guelphstudent on 03.13.14 at 8:39 am

#35, Teranet lags behind MLS average and median prices by couple of month. Hence you can’t compare Teranet number to MLS number for any given month

#97 Louis on 03.13.14 at 9:06 am

I’m a french quebecer. I’m not pro independance. I don’t vote for Pauline. I also served as an officer in the canadian army. I also have a job and pay taxes, both to Canada and Quebec

All that being said, I’m getting really tired is people trying to paint Quebec as a province full of wellfare recipiant that only leach cash from the rest of Canada. They always mention equalisation as if it was the equivalent for the entire federal budget.

Equalisation is just part of the whole budget. If you really want to know of Quebec is leaching off you need to do the following.

Calculate the federal revenu from the province (income tax, gst,…)
Calculate all federal spending in the province (transfert payment, all federal programs,…)

Only with the total picture can you say that Quebec is leaching off.

Take federal spending for example https://www.fin.gc.ca/fedprov/mtp-eng.asp

For per Capita Allocation for 2014 – 2015 (which include equalization), Quebec is at 2,387$. It’s in the middle of the pack (Alberta, BQ and Ontario have less, all other provinces have more).

#98 The NASTY TD BANK CONDO REPORT on 03.13.14 at 9:18 am

Seriously folks, what are the condo pumpers and Brad Lambs of the industry gonna say now? TD Bank economists slamming the condo industry is BAD , mainstream news.

Are the condo pumpers gonna keep spewing their BS to virgins with fancy , hip condo ads, hot chicks in the ads, live at yonge and rich (LOL), 282% investment returns over 5 years, etc. ???

These condo buyers are royally screwed. Gonna lose their shirts and regret listening to the hot chick at the sales office LOL.

#99 live within your means on 03.13.14 at 9:21 am

#21 Sean on 03.12.14 at 8:36 pm

Didn’t even read yesterday’s comments, but am sure there were many ignorant, uninformed comments from the stereotypical westerners…

So, as a born and bred Quebecer (now an expat), let me say the following.. let the ignorant, racist f^%$ers have their referendum.. and let them reap what they sow.
As an anglophone child in Quebec, I was regularly harassed and insulted by cowardly, hateful bureaucrats, making their way home from their jobs in Quebec City… “you’re in our country, speak our f*^*ing language” they would yell at myself and my friends, making our way home from high school. “You lost the f*%^ing war, now shut the f&*& up” we’d tell them.
So, as a born and bred Quebecer (now an expat), let me say the following.. let the ignorant, racist f^%$ers have their referendum.. and let them reap what they sow.
………………………………

I didn’t read Garth’s blog until the middle of the night. He is right. I found many of the comments disgusting, including yours.

As an Anglo who grew up in Quebec, my family & friends never experienced what you did. No doubt I’m older than you. It’s true there was a time in the 70’s that French Quebecers refused to speak English. I understand why. Quebec was dominated by Anglos.

Dad was in charge of a British textile firm in Quebec eons ago. He wanted to promote a French Quebecer & was told NO.

My hubby (from France) & I have family in Mtl. & visit regularly. I speak French, but we speak English at home & I’ve lost some of my French vocabulary. I automatically speak French in Quebec. If I can’t remember the correct word in French, many sales clerks will speak to me in English as they detect an English accent. I learned Parisian French in HS & later took French immersion courses, etc.

I love Quebec. Majority are against separation. My Canada includes Quebec.

BTW, there’s all kinds of evidence that people who speak, learn, a 2nd language are smarter, etc.

#100 Dwilly on 03.13.14 at 9:29 am

Garth, one thing I don’t understand. The last point blames the low rates for resulting in the housing boom and closing of factories. On the latter, I rather thought it was the other way? Would not raising rates have caused the CAD to rise vs. USD, which would have put even MORE pressure on Canadian factories? I always viewed Carney as sort of between a rock & hard place on that one. Was aware of and perhaps disliked the housing/credit binge, but unable to raise rates for fear of it sending the dollar way up, further smashing manufacturers?

#101 Smoking Man on 03.13.14 at 9:59 am

#96 guelphstudent on 03.13.14 at 8:39 am#35, Teranet lags behind MLS average and median prices by couple of month. Hence you can’t compare Teranet number to MLS number for any given month
………

Of course it does, but Teranet numbers aren’t fudged like TREB
numbers.

Average prices mean disk I terms of getting an actual accurate number.

Even with a two month lag, still much better for forecasting.

Look at my record…

#102 fixie guy on 03.13.14 at 10:08 am

#13 Smoking Man : “Avery is wrong, as I showed on my Teranet Chart…”

Ignoring for the moment basic arithmetic discounting the possibility of perpetually appreciating assets, Teranet doesn’t go back far enough. The Liberals originally figured out how to goose economic numbers with housing, Harper just took it took his normal demented extremes. Sauder has a more complete set. Toronto is screwed.

http://i60.tinypic.com/vqgxo7.gif

#103 Dupcheck on 03.13.14 at 10:13 am

The francophone have priority at the University of Ottawa over the anglophone. Ever tried to call the university? It answers first in French then English. This is a University in Ontario not Quebec, that would never fly if the other around. What else, hemmm let me see: law school programme is so much easier to get in if you are French. In Engineering, if the teacher is French oh boy you are in for a treat, special tutorials held for just the francophone students to best guide them on what to study so you do better in exams. If you think this is bs. Find out for yourselves ……. I am not hating here, this is just the sad reality I experienced first hand. The anglophone students are treated as second hand citizens at U of O.

How about government jobs in Ontario that require French and English when 90 some % of the population speaks English. That is absurd! There is absolutely no need as majority of francophone’s speak English.

The French in Canadians should not be treated as a privileged society, I know they invented Poutine, but come on. We should all be treated as citizens of one country, Canada.

The University of Ottawa is the largest bilingual university in the world. They answer the phone in both languages. Suck it up. — Garth

#104 Alistair McLaughlin on 03.13.14 at 10:46 am

Shenfield’s arguments make no sense. Seems he wanted a lower dollar, but higher interest rates to cool the housing market. Higher interest rates would push the dollar even higher. His suggestion that the BoC should have “intervened in foreign currency markets” to drive down the dollar ignores the fact that by doing so, the BoC would push down yields, and therefore interest rates would have been even lower, not higher. Which would have boosted RE even more.

#105 Popeye the Sailor Man on 03.13.14 at 10:47 am

#21 Sean and #48 Gut check;

I lived in AB and BC most my life, Navy put me through collage in Cornwall Ont. I once found myself traveling through the edge of Quebec province with 3 other class mates and we stopped to eat at a restaurant. We were all English and had a normal conversation as most people do, but we were getting looks from another table of young francophone’s. When we left they also left at the same time and outside they made some remarks and we just ignored them. When we went to leave the gravel parking lot they cut us off and spun out there tires shooting gravel all over my new car that I just bought 6 months earlier. The right side ended up with about 20 rock chips and this still irks me to this day. Some things you just don’t forget I guess.

Back in the year when they had the last referendum there was a letter sent out by some francophone politician suggesting that If Quebec Separates any francophone should leave the Canadian military and join the Quebec military. As we all know the vote was close and Quebec did not separate but I never heard about that politician ever getting charged with subversion.

#106 :):(Ying Yang on 03.13.14 at 11:26 am

#101 Smoking Man on 03.13.14 at 9:59 am
#96 guelphstudent on 03.13.14 at 8:39 am#35, Teranet lags behind MLS average and median prices by couple of month. Hence you can’t compare Teranet number to MLS number for any given month
………

Of course it does, but Teranet numbers aren’t fudged like TREB numbers.
Average prices mean disk I terms of getting an actual accurate number.
Even with a two month lag, still much better for forecasting.
Look at my record…
……………………………………………………………………….

Smoking Man my buddy passed up on Long Branch, is now hunting in Bloor West Village. He likes the Subway line. I told him wont get as much bang for his buck as down in Long Branch. He has a wife and one little one. He feels the need to have a yard? I said good luck up on Bloor, nothing under $800K with land.
Have not been to Seneca with the girlfriend lately, had to take a trip to Hong Kong. Relative passed away. My brother is the master code monkey in Singapore now making big $$, but the funny thing is the bank promised him a car (Mercedes), gave him the car but you have to apply to the government to be allowed to own a car there or some stupid law. The bank has paid for the Certificate of entitlement for him already, cost $95000.00 USD. Lots of red tape so he still can not drive the dam car. I just about crapped my self $95000.00 just to be able to own a car in Singapore, that’s not including the cost of the car. Its nice too, just sits there at his home. So the company is paying for a driver to chauffeur him around. lmao
Or maybe he is laughing his ass off at us, freezing our selves to death here in this god forsaken piece of crap city. Nobody here ever offered to purchase a Mercedes for me and pay for the ownership, license, and insurance so I could drive it into a snowbank.

#107 Josh in Calgary on 03.13.14 at 11:41 am

Let’s stop stereotyping shall we. Suffice it to say that there are loud ignorant people right across this planet. Neither Alberta nor Quebecers (or anyone else for that matter) has a monopoly on that commodity. Many “Albertans” are quite nice and welcoming. I put it in quotes because if you took a poll of “Albertans” you would find that most of them have moved here or their parents moved here. So really we are a reflection of most of Canada. It’s shameful that some are so smug because we’re doing well financially, but that’s just human nature. I will also say that almost all of the Quebecers that I’ve met are great people. I haven’t spent much time in Quebec and I have a feeling that most of the ignorant ones stay home. Same as most of the ignorant Albertans. It creates a limited view of the world.

So what I say next comes without any emotional undertones. Why couldn’t Canada and Quebec seperate on amicable terms much like the Czech Republic and Slovakia? We were placed together by the events of history and will forever have a bond for that reason. But why can’t it work as friendly neighbors instead of as room mates? Like most room mates we fight about finances and each other’s taste in music and art work. If we were neighbors instead that stuff wouldn’t matter and we’d just get together for a beer on the weekends.

I get that there would be pains associated with the transition and the matter is infinately more complicated than I’ve portrayed. But I don’t get why it couldn’t work long term?

#108 Poorgeoisie on 03.13.14 at 11:47 am

I moved from TO to MTL last year. The same people exist in both places, people tend to assume the grass is greener on the other side. But in canada there is a lot of people who feel that their grass is disadvantaged because of their language. Once you start looking at language as a tool rather than a source of pride, you begin to realize its better to have more tools in your box. I don’t mind speaking French, I like French people, my fiancée is French, our kid (due in June) will be fluent in both. We will however be moving back to ontario (Ottawa) because: I will take in $600 more a month for the exact same job at the same company, gas is 20 cents cheaper, coffee at timmies is 20 cents cheaper, less tax at the end of the year, roads are in better shape and you can turn right on red for crying out loud.

#109 Bottoms_Up on 03.13.14 at 11:48 am

Gartho, ‘proves nothing’ isn’t a way to address a slight by The Economist. If memory serves me correctly, they had Canada in spots #1 or #2 as the ‘bubbliest’ housing market.

Taking out that slight, and using a more accurate assessment of relative cost of Canadian real estate, puts our market more on par with many, many other countries.

So singling us out as the worst nation, vs. simply average real estate cost, is a huge difference (even if we still do have a housing bubble).

I did not comment on The Economist. — Garth

#110 Bottoms_Up on 03.13.14 at 11:54 am

#99 live within your means on 03.13.14 at 9:21 am
—————————————————
People are generally scared of things they don’t know. And Canada has done a relatively poor job of fostering the French language and culture across Canada (think small town Alberta). So no wonder many Canadians are unreasonably fearful of Quebec and Francophones.

But, as Canada is a very diverse nation, if we continue to strive for acceptance of all, we will slowly make this a better place.

#111 Bottoms_Up on 03.13.14 at 11:56 am

#95 Steven on 03.13.14 at 7:51 am
—————————————-
When two atomic bombs were dropped on Japan, how much radiation hit Vancouver?

That’s what I thought.

#112 World According To Garth on 03.13.14 at 12:06 pm

The Deniers

Like the “booming” US Economy?

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/03/11/jp-morgan-cutting-17000-jobs-banking-has-turned-down/

Are not banks the ones that keep the wheels greased?

#113 wxman22 on 03.13.14 at 12:17 pm

There is a bit too much quebec bashing here. Yes I know some anglos were discriminated against by the francophones in the past. But you know what there were also many francophones who were discriminated against also by anglophones..it works both ways. I personally know of a few francophones who were bullied and attacked by anglos in a predominantly anglophone area. So not sure these anectotes are useful..they just fan the flames..there are intolerent people on both sides.

Keep in mind that most Quebecers want to stay in Canada..there are only about 35 percent of the population that really want to leave.

#114 RichHill - RichVale girl on 03.13.14 at 12:20 pm

guelphstudent, Are you sure about 88% in one year? What part of Richmond Hill, ON? I live in this area, the prices have skyrocketed (especially new SFH), but 88% in one year?

If guelphstudent (#22) is correct and there was a hockey stick in Richmond Hill, ON… then why detached house prices in this area are not coming down? Anyone?
Anyone has any idea?

#115 RichHill - RichVale girl on 03.13.14 at 12:30 pm

#35 Smoking Man

You can’t go by average or medium price, two many variables..

Example, they say it’s 15% in one year, but on Teranet, it’s only 4%

———————————–

Why do we get different numbers – Garth said “detached house prices in Toronto have risen 15% in a year”, but Teranet shows 6% ?

What about SFH that have never been sold? How do you measure their price increase?

Teranet Numbers are (1) not broken out by 416 and 905 and (2) for all properties, not just SFH. Apples and Buicks. — Garth

#116 Smoking Man on 03.13.14 at 12:34 pm

#106 :):(Ying Yang on 03.13.14 at 11:26 am

Longbranch takes a bit of getting use to. The low life’s are scary looking till you talk to them an realize not much between the ears, they are being driven out slowly.. For me it’s a writers dream.

Glad for your bro, Singapore rocks, had he gone out and done some singing yet :) I could tell you some stories..

Tell him to go to Kuala Lumpur, then go to Genting Highlands, a cool Casino on top of the mountain…. Next time he gets the gambling itch.

#117 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 03.13.14 at 12:38 pm

This probably doesn’t mean much. Trial balloon in a small economy?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-12/n-z-raises-key-rate-to-become-first-developed-nation-to-tighten.html

#118 live within your means on 03.13.14 at 12:52 pm

As a PS to my previous post, 99% of my GFs in HS were 1st generation Cdns in Mtl. They spoke a min. of 3 languages. Dad was born in Denmark. It was mandatory then to learn another language. He chose German. He immigrated to Canada & learned English by going to films & reading magazines. He spoke & wrote English better than most & greatly admired Churchill`s command of English. My Mom spoke English & Norwegian. She spent a year there in her early 20s. Unfortunately, we were not taught either language at home. When my hubby moved here, he spoke 3 words of English. Took 6 mos. of ESL. He learned German in school & could get by in Spanish. He meets with a group of people who want to practice their French.

Many years ago I spent 10 days w/my Aunt & Uncle in Denmark. They spoke excellent English as did my Mom’s Norwegian cousin who visited the family years ago.

Sad there are so many biased Canadians.

#119 James on 03.13.14 at 12:52 pm

Interesting because 2 days ago Avery’s colleague is painting a pretty rosy picture. Even a 10% drop in condo price won’t derail the market. Obviously the smart thing to do is buy a low rise.

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2014/3/10/Condo-prices-in-GTA-likely-to-fall-over-next-2-years-Report.aspx

#120 Cici on 03.13.14 at 1:03 pm

Oh, here we go…the naysayers will soon see…Garth’s been right all along on rising interest rates:

“So, even if variable rates take some time to climb, we may not see such low fixed rates again any time soon,” says the report.

They also said any potential hikes will affect most those who are already stretched too thinly in the housing market, so locking in at a higher rate may be beneficial for this group to weather any drastic increases.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bmo-pitches-fixed-rate-mortgages-over-variable-1.2570911

#121 Bottoms_Up on 03.13.14 at 1:05 pm

#108 Poorgeoisie on 03.13.14 at 11:47 am
——————————————–
You are out of the loop!!

Sure you will make $600/mo more in Ottawa than Gatineau.

BUT, you will pay more to rent (or on a real estate purchase) to live on the Ottawa side. You will pay WAY MORE in daycare. Gas is now on-par due to good old Ontario HST. And you can now turn right on a red (at least in Gatineau). Go figure.

Also keep in mind reduced cost of real estate comes with reduced interest payments, reduced property tax etc.

So, you may want to rethink your plans. A house search in Aylmer or Chelsea is a good start.

#122 :):(Ying Yang on 03.13.14 at 1:19 pm

#116 Smoking Man on 03.13.14 at 12:34 pm
#106 :):(Ying Yang on 03.13.14 at 11:26 am
Longbranch takes a bit of getting use to. The low life’s are scary looking till you talk to them an realize not much between the ears, they are being driven out slowly.. For me it’s a writers dream.
Glad for your bro, Singapore rocks, had he gone out and done some singing yet :) I could tell you some stories..
Tell him to go to Kuala Lumpur, then go to Genting Highlands, a cool Casino on top of the mountain…. Next time he gets the gambling itch.
_____________________________________________

Knowing my brother hes been there, no girlfriend, no wife, just his job and his money. He figures on retiring in ten years, then get the wife and kids. He is the only person I know who walks into a Casino with money and walks out with the same amount or more. Have they finished all of the Seneca renovations? Must go there soon with the girlfriend. They sent me a VIP card or something last week, now it is called a chairman card. I laughed when I saw this now they give me $250 to play when I come. That is only ten rolls on the slot for my girlfriend. She likes the back end of the Casino. I don’t like it back there too dark and smoky and I smoke cigarettes.

#123 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.13.14 at 1:22 pm

Well I wonder how the real estate market will glow under this issue. Would you like to purchase the ranch with the view of the ocean and only 200 Milli rads of exposure or the larger two story further away with 100 Milli rads of exposure?

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Toxic%2Bwaters%2BNuclear%2Bradiation%2Bfound%2Bpose%2Bhealth%2Bconcerns/9606269/story.html

#124 gladiator on 03.13.14 at 1:31 pm

@111 Bottoms_Up:
Fukushima was the equivalent of 1000 atomic bombs and as TEPCO reveals more and more of the information they held secret about the quantity of radioactive materials released into the air and water, expect that number to go up. Enjoy this:
http://enenews.com/professor-fukushima-release-equivalent-1000-atomic-bombs-video

Moreover, radioactive isotopes from Fukushima disaster was already detected in milk of American cows. Enjoy this:
http://foodmatters.tv/articles-1/fukushima-radiation-taints-us-milk-supplies-at-levels-300-percent-higher-than-epa-maximums

And lastly, pull your head out of where it is now and think why American and Canadian authorities increased the level of “safe radiation” after Fukushima disaster, and eventually stopped publishing their measurements altogether. Enjoy this:
http://rt.com/usa/fukushima-geiger-california-radiation-238/

BTW, since official sources are interested in hiding this information to avoid any panic, one has to revert to alternative sources like the ones above.
I was irradiated by Chernobyl thank you very much, and being from Eastern Europe learned a lot about radiation and its effects on the human health. Soviets had to admit there was something wrong when significantly higher levels of radiation were detected above Western Europe, so this sh|t travels far. Till this day I stay out of rain to avoid inhaling/swallowing even small particles because I know they are out there.

#125 Not an economist on 03.13.14 at 1:32 pm

Hey Garth, do you really STILL believe this will end in a slow multiyear or even multidecade meltdown Japan-style instead of a kaboom-woosh like in the States?

I really don’t see any rational explanation for why our bubble won’t burst harder than the American one did. Ours is more greatly inflated than theirs ever was. By any conceivable metric like home ownership rates, debt load, median price to median salary ratio, etc it looks like we’ve bubbled up significantly more than our neighbors did.

And all this will come at a time when our federal authorities, both government and the central bank, have fewer tools than ever to mitigate the fallout. Our unemployment and underemployment are already very high, and we’re still at the top of the bubble, air is still getting pushed in! Our interest rates are already nearing 0%. Are they going to take it negative? Really, I don’t see what anyone in Ottawa can do about it. We have no damn cushion for any of this crap. No employment market that has room to get worse. No interest rate we can cut. Our currency is not the reserve currency of the world, and is already shitting the bed. We got nothing that can help us.

I’m almost 30 Garth, and just like you stereotype my generation, I am scared. When the hell does our time come to make some hay, have some kids, and live in a home we own? Or will we be Canada’s lost generation, with so many of us apparently having made the mistake of picking non-wealthy parents and also a non-ideal birth decade?

We have unique problems, maybe the kind that someone from other generations doesn’t really get. Did you read about that company that hooks up university chicks with sugar daddies so they can pay for tuition? Apparently business is booming for them. Have a look:

http://globalnews.ca/news/1110604/more-maritime-students-turn-to-sugar-daddies-to-pay-for-tuition/

This is what we’ve turned into, we are eating our young. Look at how fast that business is growing. What do you think those girls are trading for tuition money? Platonic company? Let’s be realistic. Young girls are literally selling their bodies to old men in order to pay for an education, at a time when a university degree means less than ever as a ticket to a solid financial life. But if we suggest we raise taxes by even one measly percent on the top bracket, it’s somehow immoral. Fully subsidized tuition is communism, boo! Meanwhile, our young are selling themselves for a degree. But they deserve it, right? Because clearly poverty is a character flaw and a personal problem, has nothing to do with the way the economy is structured at a national level. Cue Kevin Oleary, take it from the top, bro!

I’m going to go out on a limb and say the cause of all this speculation, greed and poor national planning is a change in culture. “I got mine, screw you”.

Well I got something to tell you Mr. “You’re richer than you think!”
If all you have is an expensive home and not much else in assets, you’re in the same boat as us, the youth. You just don’t know it yet.

#126 Suede on 03.13.14 at 1:59 pm

Quebec not going anywhere, smoke and mirrors show.

PQ has to first get a majority. Then they have to organize an expensive and time consuming referendum. The referendum has to be decisive and not a narrow victory or else Quebecers will be divided (not good for the PQ’s mandate). Then let’s assume negotiations beging to actually separate. The odds just to get to this point are tiny.

Will they:

– Take their share of the Federal Debt? Nope
– Cut off their Transfer Payments? Nope
– Be the most indebted province/new country for a LONG time? Yes
– Have a good credit rating for their bonds? Not a chance
– Increase their taxes to make up for their lack of funds? Definitely

Bet accordingly.

There are no riots in the street and people don’t really care. Ask any Montrealer walking along Rue St Catherines – things are going well. If it aint broke, don’t mess with it. If you break it on purpose, they will come after the mechanic in charge.

#127 45north on 03.13.14 at 2:16 pm

BG : What does Napoleon has to do with Quebec?

nothing, the Battle of the Plains of Abraham happened long before Napoleon came to power in France

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Plains_of_Abraham

Victoria Tea Party : talking about higher interest rates:

but when it shows up, as a mortgage interest rate “adjustment” notice in your mail, please don’t whine, kvetch and demand a taxpayer bailout;

you know mortgages are a private thing, I mean people can brag about paying off a mortgage but they are not going to publicly declare they cannot pay their mortgage. Mark Hanson says that the most important factor when people decide whether to pay their mortgages or not is the equity they have – the more equity the more likely they are to pay. The scenario that I see is interest rates will go up slowly but real estate prices will fall quickly. What if there is no bailout? I mean no one has promised one.

Westcdn: The thing I picked up was that French Quebec spent too much time living the past that never was and thinking they were robbed.

the genius of the French was to keep their religion, language, and culture for generations in the face of English domination. They have thrown out their religion, let’s see how long they keep the rest!

#128 Industrial Guy on 03.13.14 at 2:42 pm

Dupcheck …. what number are you calling at the University of Ottawa?? I call on the University quite often and never have a problem with language.

The U of O is proudly bilingual throughout all levels of the organization. I don’t expect the Right Honourable Michaelle Jean, Chancellor of the University to change this anytime soon.

#129 Bill Gable on 03.13.14 at 2:54 pm

#16 – You are far from stupid.

I am happy you are OK after your smashup on the 407.
You said it all. LIVE. Every minute to the fullest.

Things don’t mean anything. It’s the people you love and the good things you do to help other people, that matters.
Yes, you have to be fiscally prudent (*Mr. Turner tries – my how he tries) – but you have to inhale life deeply.

Take care, all.

#130 winningthewar on 03.13.14 at 2:59 pm

If you cant beat’em, join em.

Knowing two languages is clearly better than only one, why fight about it? Transition all elementary schools in Canada to french immersion; teach every child in Canada french, for real. Half measures are really the worse solution to any problem, put an end to half-assed three hours a week french sleeper classes until grade 10.

You want to hit them where it hurts? Make them less unique, less special. Take back French from the Québécois.

#131 Industrial Guy on 03.13.14 at 3:17 pm

Poorgeoisie … Sadly, you and a lot of anglophones will be departing Quebec if the Parti Quebecois wins a majority government. I still have lots of friends and family in Quebec ……. and to say they are fed up … well, it’s an understatement.

The whole secular charter episode has left many with a sour taste in their mouths. Talk about tribalism. No politician in TROC (the rest of Canada) would be crazy enough to introduce the same legislation …. well, maybe Alberta’s Wildrose Party.

The Charter’s support in rural Quebec is rock solid and the PQ is counting on it too. There is no doubt this will be the springboard to the next referendum. All this political uncertainty will do wonders for the Canadian economy in the short term. If the PQ wins the next referendum, I’ll support what the Economic Council of Canada said in the 80’s. It won’t be pretty …. but, neither will it be a disaster. Let’s all hope cool heads prevail and an equitable solution is found that serves everyone well. We negotiated trade agreements with the EEC and Korea. How could an agreement with Quebec be any worse?

#132 Bill Gable on 03.13.14 at 3:22 pm

Memo to Madame Marois:

“Ukraine’s largest bank says customers in the nation’s Crimean Peninsula are lining up to withdraw cash from their accounts as the region occupied by Russian troops prepares for Sunday’s referendum on joining Russia.

Lines of customers could be seen forming on Thursday outside Privat and other banks amid uncertainty over the peninsula’s future.”

> Uncertainty, kills markets.

Marois and her new pet Oligarch better wise up.

I may be an Anglophone, and live in Vancouver, but that does not dim my love for the diversity and the glory of Quebec.

*Mr. Turner – The VanDoos.

Mention “VanDoo” during past conflicts and the enemy would run.

They are la creme.

http://tinyurl.com/kwzgz5f

#133 Industrial Guy on 03.13.14 at 3:25 pm

World According To Garth ….. I just returned from ConExpo 2014 in Las Vegas and the San Francisco Bay area …… Yes, the U.S. economy is booming.

#134 Steven on 03.13.14 at 3:29 pm

Thanks to the low wages and extreme real estate prices slavery and economic genocide is reborn in our time. Don’t deny it!

#135 Steven on 03.13.14 at 3:46 pm

Re:#111
The radiological release from Fukushima at the time of the melt down of 3 reactor cores was not like Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It was like 168 Hiroshima’s plus a slow release of isotopes that continues to this very day.
I’d say it was like a good size nuclear war but with out the nuclear
blast damage. Just because you can not sense it with your natural senses does not mean there is no problem. Watch the following video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4u14i6F6oE
The maximum tolerable dose is one milliseivert per year.
A reading of 3.66 microseiverts/hr x24x365/1000=32.0616 milliseiverts per year or 32 time the original safe limit.
Do you feel lucky?
The connecting the dots guy got a reading near lake Louise of 1.68 microsieverts per hour. Do the math.

#136 World According To Garth on 03.13.14 at 3:54 pm

#111 Bottoms_Up on 03.13.14 at 11:56 am
#95 Steven on 03.13.14 at 7:51 am
—————————————-
When two atomic bombs were dropped on Japan, how much radiation hit Vancouver?

That’s what I thought.
————————————————————-

Shows you how much you know about a 1/2 pound air burst of Plutonium vs hundreds of kilograms of fuel rods. Oh I forgot…….your a govt worker pushing BS papers around full of BS information to the public in 19 layers of admin BS. So that explains everything.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/why-tepco-is-risking-the-removal-of-fukushima-fuel-rods-the-dangers-of-uncontrolled-global-nuclear-radiation/5359188

#137 Smoking Man on 03.13.14 at 4:24 pm

#123 :):(Ying Yang on 03.13.14 at 1:19 pm

The new bar at Seneca sucks, too classy, I afraid to get too hammerd there. At the old club 101 I could be bouncing of the walls never get booted, just a nod to Patric or Ralph bar tenders and they would get me a security escort to my room.

New place, one wee wobble I think cops will escort you out the building.

Going Sat I think, this flu is almost done.

#138 Enthalpy on 03.13.14 at 4:34 pm

omg that RH hockey stick graph is crazy.

*plugs ears* its different here!

#139 Smoking Man on 03.13.14 at 4:36 pm

MH 370 OR 3x7xO=21
Boeing 777 7+7+7 =21

Ucc says play black jack this weekend.

#140 World According To Garth on 03.13.14 at 5:12 pm

#134 Industrial Guy on 03.13.14 at 3:25 pm

World According To Garth ….. I just returned from ConExpo 2014 in Las Vegas and the San Francisco Bay area …… Yes, the U.S. economy is booming.
———————————————————-

In a city with visitors and conventions from around the planet earth your letting this place be your information on the economies strength?

That’s like being in the Amazon Rain Forest and saying there is water available in every part of the world.

#141 World According To Garth on 03.13.14 at 5:15 pm

Not to mention Con Expo sells parts (and outsources parts to be made) around the world. So congratulations, you went to an expo that shows you proof of why jobs are disappearing in Canada and the USA.

#142 Renter's Revenge! on 03.13.14 at 5:38 pm

#MathFail

3x7x0=0 not 21.

UCC says go back to school, SM.

#143 Pope Snuggleums the 666rd (aka Nosty) on 03.13.14 at 5:52 pm

SMan — Been speculating on Flight 370, Amelia Earhart, Harper and the long-disbanded CPC crew and the most plausible theory I can emerge with is !WORMHOLES! Whaddaya think? Still alive on parallel universes?

#133 Bill Gable on 03.13.14 at 3:22 pm — “Ukraine’s largest bank says customers in the nation’s Crimean Peninsula are lining up to withdraw cash from their accounts as the region occupied by Russian troops prepares for Sunday’s referendum on joining Russia.”

The western-backed ‘revolution’ (sic) will lead to the IMF (and others) making Ukrainians debt-slaves, as per Libya, Canada and others. Oligarchs One and Two.

BTW, ignore m$m but pay attention to China and Absorbing.

For those interested, the Avro Arrow would have been better and more cost-efficient than the F-35.

#144 Bob on 03.13.14 at 5:56 pm

Lots of hate tonight. I was lucky to be enrolled in French immersion out west. After uni people from the English track told me how badly they wished they had second language on their resume. Quebec leaving Canada will not get the French out of the New Brunswick, the territories. Hell even Beaumont AB has bilingual street signs. French is here to stay with or without la belle province :)

#145 jess on 03.13.14 at 6:08 pm

what is meant when invoking the term “competitiveness”
https://www.law.upenn.edu/live/news/2238-prof-michael-s-knoll-on-the-debate-over

the big 4 tech buy treasuries ?
http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/13/investing/tech-bonds-overseas-cash/

March 12, 2014 by Nick Mathiason
http://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/2014/03/12/apple-and-microsoft-among-us-tech-giants-reaping-interest-payments-on-offshore-cash/

#146 Yeah... on 03.13.14 at 6:16 pm

What do you think of this story from the Calgary Herald saying that a housing economist thinks houses are undervalued by 20%?

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/What+will+Calgary/9610188/story.html

#147 Smoking Man on 03.13.14 at 6:18 pm

#143 Renter’s Revenge! on 03.13.14 at 5:38 pm

Lol and I thought no one read smoking man posts….

#148 ozy - I BET on the WHITE SWAN on 03.13.14 at 6:48 pm

I BET on the WHITE SWAN for Kanata

actually, lots of black swans with wars in ASIA AFRICA EUROPE – and influx of people from all over the word

just be well positioned to offer them something valuable in return for their money. QUALITY will still rock….

including QUEBEQ – Toronto core will rock and 50% gains possible soon – just watch

#149 More tea M'Lord? on 03.13.14 at 6:58 pm

When I was young I used to dislike Quebec because of their insistence on cultural preservation while Anglo culture was being diluted by multiculturalism. But now I am old : After extensive research I have concluded that England (and it’s bankers, agents, secret agents, blah blah) are the source of all the worlds problems, (including both world wars) although part of the ‘Anglo’ group, I now empathize with Quebec and of course the Native Canadians.

#150 Happy Renting on 03.13.14 at 7:08 pm

#126 Not an economist on 03.13.14 at 1:32 pm

I’m almost 30 Garth, and just like you stereotype my generation, I am scared. When the hell does our time come to make some hay, have some kids, and live in a home we own? Or will we be Canada’s lost generation, with so many of us apparently having made the mistake of picking non-wealthy parents and also a non-ideal birth decade?

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I hear you that times are tough. You can only control how you plan for and react to them, though. The better days of the past may not return anytime soon, so find the best way to spend your youth with what is reality, now.

So you may be working a lot harder than you expected to make good money. You might be raising kids in a home you don’t own, or postponing them if you really must own. Make the sacrifices and trade offs necessary to get some of what you want. You won’t get it all, but holding out for that is counterproductive after a certain point.

Oh, and sex work to pay tuition, as an example of generational hardship, is going to get laughed at. It takes credibility from the valid points you raise.

#151 ignorant&desperate on 03.13.14 at 7:13 pm

am to meet with bank advisor tomorrow in order to decide what to do with 36K in my TSFA. advice appreciated. thanks.

Run. — Garth

#152 screwed on 03.13.14 at 7:22 pm

Why would the billionaire Marais be interested in promoting Quebec independence? Can we ask what his interest are in potentially crashing the Canadian Dollar and driving Canadian bond prices down and rates up?

The man is a billionaire for good reason. Garth, you had mentioned that a group of American investors met in Toronto late last year to plan a strategy going short the Canadian Dollar. These guys are in the money by now.

If Big Money is behind the Separatist movement, then the logical question should be how does Big Money stand to benefit in the process?

Without access to debt funding as a Canadian Province, how do the Separatists think they can keep funding their huge deficits, entitlements and provincial, municipal and corporate debts?

If Quebec chooses to leave, they better be prepared for the financial shock that is coming at them shortly after. Which Canadian bank would keep their shops open in Quebec or would Quebec seek a membership in the EU and get funding from Brussels?

I call bullshit on the whole notion that Quebec would ever leave on their own merit unless Big Money stands to profit from a short term financial play.

#153 Industrial guy on 03.13.14 at 11:05 pm

World According To Garth …. I don’t understand what your point is …… I attend trade conferences around the USA. Are you suggesting that all of the US based companies I encounter who tell me business is booming are lying? ……. Americans are buying equipment and spare parts from lots of vendors. Mine included and we manufacture only in Canada, eh.

Sure, some are buying from offshore suppliers. But you seem to miss the main point. US businesses are buying. They certainly were not doing much of that in 2009.

They’re buying in volume from domestic suppliers too. Quite a few of my customers are expanding in Southern California and the Bay Area. Employment is up in almost all sectors.

We need a Jerry Brown in Canada.