Not so fast

SOBER modified

Last weekend a semi in Toronto’s east end was mobbed by crazed yuppies, in part because of the ‘aggressive’ pricing. (Remember what I told you a few days ago about how agents start bidding wars?) The list price was $549,000.

Chris and Monica were one of the thirtysomething couples who went to have a look. “It seemed exorbitant to me for a house like that,” Chris said later in disgust. Others didn’t think so. There were 25 offers, and the saggy half-house sold for $717,336. Says Chris: “I have no idea where the money of fund all of these crazy mortgage payments is coming from. Is everyone a bloody millionaire?”

Hardly. They just borrow like it. Especially in that segment of the urban real estate market which is coming unglued from the others.

Chris and Monica make $125,000 between them, have good jobs, savings, clean credit, no debt and hate their apartment. “Needless to say we are frustrated. We would ideally like a house but wouldn’t mind a nice condo if that is all we could get. However, the condo market seems like a disaster waiting to happen and they’re not cheap either. We just don’t want to stay in the apartment we’re in and don’t want to keep renting. What the hell are we supposed to do?”

Adds Chris: “Everyone I talk to keeps saying that sales are going to remain strong and prices are going to continue to rise. Nobody’s income seems to be going up like that so I don’t know how this can happen. Your perspective would be greatly appreciated.”

Sure. First, let’s all understand the market is not hot, booming or advancing. Year/year sales in Toronto, for example are lower (not higher), and off 17% from the spring of 2012. The number of single-family resale homes trading in 416 has been declining for four years. One reason is price – those unafraid of debt or risk have pushed average SFH values to Vancouveresque levels of stupidity

Higher prices in the teeth of falling demand is not a good harbinger of what’s to come. How can people go to university for seven years and not figure that out?

Moreover, as I’ve told you, this is a market which is stratifying bigtime. Over-$1.5 million properties (there are now 1,400 of them in the GTA) are languishing, even in some of the best hoods. Life was never the same for seven-figure listings after F disqualified them from CHMC mortgage insurance.

At the other end of the market, it’s obvious the condo market is set to suicide. Even the Bay Street boys can smell that. TD Bank this week issued a report which should scare the crap out of everyone who bought a concrete box with little or nothing down in the last few years. Condo prices are headed 8% lower over the next two dozen months, it says. That means anyone who ponied up a 5% down payment and then sells and pays commission (after already paying double what a renter would for the same unit) should never have listened to their mom. It’s a personal financial wipeout. (And 8% is a wildly optimistic number. Thrice it.)

There are so many reasons condos are cooked. Tiny new ones can’t compete with bigger, old ones. There’s a scant secondary market for 500-foot claustro cubbyholes. Rents are too low to attract new investors or keep existing ones. And supply (70,000 units coming this year and next) is overwhelming demand. In short, there’s only one direction in which these prices will travel.

Now, back to that segmentation of housing. The bank economists sure see it:

“Toronto’s skyline of cranes is now about to transform into a skyline of condo buildings. The number of new units scheduled to be completed in the GTA over the next two years is striking at a time when new condo sales are dwindling. Meanwhile, the market for single-detached homes remains drum tight, keeping average resale home price growth in the GTA near 9 per cent year-over-year in February, further igniting fears of a bubble. One market is facing too much supply, while another appears to be heating up.”

So, Chris and Monica, what to do? First, if you hate your apartment, move. Rent a house, or a townhouse or a larger unit. Quench your house-horny juices for a year or two until the inevitable interest rate or market jolt restores some sanity. Your friends are wrong – the market is thin and unbalanced. It will correct. Besides, how would you feel after paying three-quarters of a million dollars for half a house, unrenovated, in the wrong part of the city? Would that bring happiness?

The deals right now are for those with two million to spend. The deals to come will be when condos hit the wall. The steaming middle is a debt trap.

Now, a quick word about poor Vancouver, where seasoned Westside real estate guy Sam Wyatt sold his own house and rents, “because it’s cheaper.” I asked Sam a month ago for reaction when the feds punted the investor immigrant program, and he’s now had time to reflect. Thought you would find this report of his interesting:

“The question people are asking is: will this affect real estate prices in Vancouver?  The simple answer is yes.  If nothing else, foreign nationals who have purchased homes in anticipation of their applications being processed may rethink their plans and sell their property.  In addition, new prospective foreign buyers will be scared off by the lack of an easy avenue to immigrate by.  Sales of new condominiums at UBC (a hot bed of Chinese foreign buyers) have already fallen off.”

But Sam agrees with this blog’s thesis that while wealthy immigrants have certainly goosed the top end of the market, people in Vancouver can’t blame them for pushing the average SFH to the $1.3 million mark.

“If you bore into individual sales you find that the highest priced real estate went way up while the lowest priced real estate barely moved.  The addition of all that foreign capital in the high end of the market didn’t have much of an effect on the bottom of the price ladder.  The removal of that inflow of money will likely have a disproportionate effect on higher priced detached homes than on lower cost condos.”

Connect the dots between what Chris and Monica see in Toronto and what Sam knows in Van, and the real story emerges. People are nuts.

152 comments ↓

#1 Bob Rice on 03.10.14 at 8:34 pm

Garth, can you do a piece on investments for seniors?

and here:

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/03/10/warren-buffett-closing-leamington-plant-shows-diving-loonie-no-panacea-for-canadian-jobs/

#2 Sean on 03.10.14 at 8:36 pm

Chris and Monica, why don’t you just rent. For $1700 you can get a nice 2+ bedroom townhouse or condo along the outside of the city. If you really want to be downtown you could do that for just a little bit more a month.

It would give you the flexibility to move if you switch jobs, hate your neighbors or your tastes change and you want a new hood.

There are lots of nice condos in just about every neighborhood. Pick one for a year and let a landlord subsidize you.

#3 walking dead on 03.10.14 at 8:36 pm

Good for them to stay away and wait

#4 K W on 03.10.14 at 8:37 pm

Thrice? That to me sounds like a collapse.

#5 -=jwk=- on 03.10.14 at 8:39 pm

you really should rent a house before you buy. very different experience, and expensive to run/maintain. simple example: the dirt everyone tracks right inside. Your apartment has a lobby, an elevator and a carpeted hallway. your house front door opens right to the driveway.

The condo market will take down sfh too. That huge condo gain is what is making the huge down payments. take the domino away and the whole thing goes down…

#6 Chopper on 03.10.14 at 8:40 pm

Garth you are flogging a dead horse. The urge to buy a house is so strong people will do anything to get one, even committing financial suicide. It is a symbol of prosperity to own a house. If you are renting then people think you are stupid and poor.

People are not making decisions with their head anymore but with their heart, how they feel, sad but they will regret it in time.

A great man once said, “The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation” I can’t wait to see this bubble pop.

#7 Smoking Man on 03.10.14 at 8:42 pm

Missing the boat sucks. Lost opportunity hurts.

Altho I am so tempted to kick you dogs when your down, I’m not. 5 years Ive been preaching, 416 SFH golden. Gatho been preaching balanced portfolio. Either way you would have won.

Most on here have done nothing but hord cash and fantisize about voulching some poor sucker. Jokes on you.

Now that you missed the boat, there are still opportunities, espacialy with the new free trade deal we are doing with the South Korea. They love our food products. I could waste a half hour or so, typing and telling you what to do, but you only want to voulch, like an idiot who is playing in a bad seat at a poker table convinced the cards will get better and they don’t. Been there myself.

Tomorrow the teranet data comes out, can’t fudge those numbers. But that’s what I use for my hockey stick eqaution. I might have good news for you.

But one month wont bend a stick….But I may see a sign…

#8 K W on 03.10.14 at 8:43 pm

#2 Agreed. And for giggles, keep track of all the repairs that would coming out of your pocket, instead, a phone call solves the problem. There is no line of defense when things break down, it is paid by the homeowner.

#9 Spiltbongwater on 03.10.14 at 8:44 pm

Is Sam still telling clients to price below the most recent comparable sale prices, and has he been doing such for the past 18 months?

#10 hohoho on 03.10.14 at 8:47 pm

> … The number of new units scheduled to be completed in the GTA over the next two years is striking at a time when new condo sales are dwindling …

how much exposure do the big 5 have in terms of builder financing?

#11 Reality Check on 03.10.14 at 8:47 pm

The TD Economics report:

http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economics/special/GTAHousing.pdf

#12 Pluto on 03.10.14 at 8:48 pm

I don’t see deals for $2 million+ in Toronto. I’ve been looking for a house between $2.5 – $3.2 million for 8 months now. There isn’t much inventory and there are few price decreases.

#13 ILoveCharts on 03.10.14 at 8:51 pm

GTA home prices tell tale of 2 cities: condos vs. family homes

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/gta-home-prices-tell-tale-of-2-cities-condos-vs-family-homes-1.2566931

#14 omg on 03.10.14 at 8:56 pm

134 devore on 03.10.14 at 1:00 pm
#48 VICTORIA TEA PARTY

“Quit your crying. You should be ashamed it took a court order to get Victoria to finally think about treating their sewage, rather than just dumping it into the ocean.”
—————–
Devore – have you actually looked into the matter or are you just going by what the environmental activists have to say.

I would love to take you out on a small boat into the body of water that we put our sewage into. The shear volume is astounding – makes you feels like a little tiny speck.

Some really smart scientists think the 1/2 billion dollars could be better spent rather than processing the poop and pee on land.

But those that cannot think beyond the optics have forced us into the sewage plant.

#15 j shum on 03.10.14 at 8:58 pm

I disagree that the interest rates will change in the next two years. The guy at scotia says they are being told 10+ years. If I read/interpreted correctly correctly pimco seemed to think the interest rates would raise enough to cause an issue. I think they will stay low for a while yet. However if I read the pimco correctly, they still think things will go south

Get a new banker. — Garth

#16 Soylent Green is People on 03.10.14 at 9:04 pm

This retreat house is worth 3-4 times what they are asking… don’t believe so?? Check it out — one of a kind in the WORLD.

511 E Clear Lake Dr, Fremont, IN 46737
– on the border in Indiania next to Illinois

By Owner: $1,695,000
Zestimate®: $589,130
Est. Mortgage:
$6,657/mo

Zestimate is ridiculously way off. Zillow says it’s automatic and can’t be changed with swamp and farmland in consideration near this high-end resort arena. See 2 of many comps linked to our main page: http://www.tarajories.com in view from our gate. Our location is the midst of 360* multi-million dollar estates, being the largest and most prestigious of all, with the vast-in-comparison acreage and location, location, location the cash crop, and the 2 fully-furnished abodes a free bonus. *

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/511-E-Clear-Lake-Dr-Fremont-IN-46737/2139168317_zpid/

……………………..

The Crown Jewel of Ultra Prestigious Clear Lake ~ The expanse of 461 waterfront feet on 4.334 full acres of plushly forested, private, gated, finely honed, waterfront property in Clear Lake on virtually private Lake Anne is the main draw here. Shrouded privacy segways to bustling Clear Lake immediately via fully navigable, lush lagoon inlet. The 2 unique-in-the-extreme abodes are the bonus. Nothing compares. 2010 market adjusted pricing. 3% commission if your contact buys.

Both Main Manor, 1488+/- s/f, and 2-story Gentlemen’s Quarters, 1100+ s/f additional finely finished living space, feature 2 unique MAX~Q Light & Sound Therapy Spa/Baths, 4+ bedrooms, 2 kitchens, 2 great rooms, 16′ cathedral ceilings with 8 skylights, 2 sliding glass doors & 12 ft front bay window in the heart of The MAX~Q’s atrium/conservatory/recording studio, 2 libraries/office/studies, starfield features, meditation room, compact master suite with MAX~Q spa/bath, walk-in closet & laundry attached. Find more with 24×16′ workshop/art studio in GQ with shop tools, and separate garden shed with lawn tractor & tools included to pamper yourself in this literally maintenance-free forest. Reliable local maintenance crews have it handled so all you need do is show up.

…………..

Lake Anne is a private, protected, paradise amongst some of the most valuable, desired (and already developed) property in the mid-East. Tarajories is unique as a huge, private property but just seconds from the much more highly developed shoreline, neighbors and activities of Clear Lake.

Note how over the years Clear Lake has been developed into a shoulder to shoulder strip of vacation homes and docks. Lake Anne is pristine and private.

Clear Lake properties ARE desirable and Tarajories is a Clear Lake address (across the street). This hides the treasure and secret of Tarajories – a nearly 5 acre paradise on a secluded, limited access lake which is still within reach of everything.

http://tarajories.blogspot.ca/

………………………………….

Google Map Pic: 6 hours drive from Hamilton, Ontario: on Michigan / Indiana border pic.twitter.com/3dyDZqdTTj

#17 BRands101 on 03.10.14 at 9:08 pm

Good friends of mine were among one of the offers. A recurring theme in the area the past two months – multiple bids, houses going $100K over asking.

A frustrating Spring market, indeed.

#18 Nemesis on 03.10.14 at 9:08 pm

#NotSoFast #TheRippleEffect #ChicagoSchool #Clapotis*

Fascinating… but not so fast, Mr. Wyatt… let me guess, you slept through Physics and cribbed SmokingMan’s notes in SocialStudies…

Let’s begin with HowTheWorldReallyWorks – does this look familiar?:

http://tinyurl.com/lgcek27

And [in a very broad sense] here’s how that plays out in terms of HousingCrashes:

http://tinyurl.com/kt8bw7h

And now, something for the TrulyGeeky… ‘Ripples’ as viewed by UrbanSociologogists….

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_sociology#Development_and_rise_of_urban_sociology

And, a personal favourite, the dreaded *Clap[otis]:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clapotis

Well. There it is.

[NoteToSaltyDogz: Although not, strictly speaking, an STD – *Clapotis can nevertheless erode your ‘foundations’. So to speak.]

#19 sideline sitter on 03.10.14 at 9:14 pm

two things:

1) all those ‘condo investors’ who used their HELOC to put down a downpayment on a condo better be careful…

2) if people think I’m dumb/poor/unsuccessful thats GOOD! No one needs to know what I have/make/live. if I need other people’s approval, then I already lost at life.

#20 omg on 03.10.14 at 9:16 pm

WHAT WILL VANCOUVER PRICES BE IN 10 YEARS

So let say average priced house in Vancouver city appreciates by just 5% annually for the next 10 years.

That would make the average house worth about $2.1 million.

Then let’s say interest rates have returned to long run normals and a 5 year mortgage will cost you 6%. And lets say you had put 10% down.

That’s $12,000 per month payment, or $144,000 per year you would be paying for that nice little Vancouver bungalow. YIKES

Kind of puts in persecutive the idea that prices can rise indefinitely, let alone where they are starting from.

AND IF YOU DO NOT THINK prices can rise at a paltry 5% annually why would you sink $1.3 million in an illiquid asset.

IT IS HARD waiting to be so right.

#21 Chickenlittle on 03.10.14 at 9:19 pm

I think people buy these places for bragging rights. When I went to college all I heard were people bragging about where they live: Yonge and St Clair, Bloor and Lansdowne, etc. Half of those places are falling around the owners as we speak.

Don’t forget that most hipsters want to be “steps to shops, cafés, and all hipsters hotspots.”

#22 tim on 03.10.14 at 9:19 pm

When a two bedroom condo costs $500,000 in Vancouver, you can’t say that the lowest priced real estate barely moved. When you add maintenance fees of $300 and month, taxes of $100 a month and insurance, you could probably rent a place for $2000 per month and still be ahead financially

#23 karlhungus on 03.10.14 at 9:30 pm

ah you must be a redditor

#24 Linda Mulligan on 03.10.14 at 9:38 pm

Chris & Monica should definitely rent. IF they want to ‘try before they buy’ they could spend the next two or three years going from one potential neighborhood to another, always presuming there would be some desirable rental unit to be had in said neighborhood at a price that would not break the budget. It would also potentially give them the opportunity to try different housing styles – bungalow, 4 level split, town or row house, condo, two plus story etc. Nothing like living somewhere for 6 months or a year to truly know commute times, amenities or drawbacks to what they think might be a possible long term place to settle down in. While moving every six months or yearly is a pain, it does offer the opportunity to weed out the stuff you no longer want. Who knows, they may end up never buying because it is just too much fun trying out new digs every year:)

#25 gladiator on 03.10.14 at 9:49 pm

A strong spring market in the hot area between 600k and 800k. The show goes on.

#26 X on 03.10.14 at 9:51 pm

Everyone can see this RE train wreck coming except for the sheeple. It really is a shame more isn’t done to stop them from ruining their financial lives. Many will never recover.

#27 devore on 03.10.14 at 9:56 pm

#14 omg

I would love to take you out on a small boat into the body of water that we put our sewage into. The shear volume is astounding – makes you feels like a little tiny speck.

And? Fukushima is a tiny speck too.

Some really smart scientists think the 1/2 billion dollars could be better spent rather than processing the poop and pee on land.

I’m not a really smart scientist, and even I can think of dozens of better ways of spending half a billion. Regardless, does not change the fact that there is a cost to flushing a toilet, taking a shower, and doing a load of laundry. You are externalizing costs, and just because you cannot immediately see them does not mean they are not there.

You’re not gonna brow beat me by boxing me up with some “environmental activists”, even if it impresses your friends.

#28 LH on 03.10.14 at 10:03 pm

Fascinating. Not an 8 to be seen in the winning bid! ;)

LH

#29 RockStar on 03.10.14 at 10:05 pm

First, if the market in Toronto is not hot (and that’s a huge incorrect ‘if’), and that couple still can’t afford a home, then they’re screwed anyway.

Second, sales volume or asset turns, is no indicator whatsoever of anything. Many companies have high volume sales with low margins and suck as businesses while companies with low volume of sales and better margins are superior.

Third, a plethora of writers have written articles about the supposed Toronto condo downturn. They’ve been wrong forever. This article was simply busy work to give to an underemployed worker. It clearly belongs in the steaming pile of similar incorrect forecasts before it.

RE prices have gone up, are going up and will continue to go up longer than anybody’s lifespan on this blog. I feel bad for renters who’s only financial purpose is to make their landlords wealthy. It’s sad.

#30 Shawn on 03.10.14 at 10:06 pm

Rational Borrowers?

Why people borrow so much…

Imagine, in the limit, if you could borrow at 0% locked in. What would be the rational approach?

Might it be to borrow as much as you possibly could and never pay back any?

Yes, okay and if you can borrow at 3% and suspect rates won’t rise, now how much should you borrow and should you be in a rush to pay it back?

Folks, this is not 1985. Interest rates for one thing ARE different, FAR different, no?

#31 Joe Schmoe on 03.10.14 at 10:10 pm

I am in a crabby mood so excuse the tone.

Why would anyone live in Van/TO unless you could easily afford the housing? $125K combined in TO?

Leave!
You can replace that. Probably more than that if you factor in cost of living and the cost of wiping human feces off your shoes if you walk a block off Yonge or Robson.

Read some other blogs. (something about a guy with money and a moustache is one…) Living in large cities is for suckers unless you have a pile of dough.

Van and TO are barely nice places to visit, why live there if you can get a similar job elsewhere.

Alas, I am a hypocrite, but have a rich wife with a job in Calgary that she really loves. I just drool when I look at smaller centers in Canada. And Calgary is hardly big! It just has a we’re smaller than TO/VAN complex without the human feces in back alleys.

#32 RockStar on 03.10.14 at 10:10 pm

#6 Chopper

I don’t know about stupid but renters ARE poor. In general, renters are poorer by far than homeowners. Hands down.

#33 eddy on 03.10.14 at 10:17 pm

I’ll guess it’s in the East End, the latest hipster hood, sandwiched between the Beach and Riverdale, who didn’t see that commin’?

Answer: Chris, Monica and 25 other members of the slow typing class. What was everyone doing last fall? waiting for ‘tweets’ form Garth? His new book?
“Slaughterhouse 416”?

That house could have been bought for 100k less last fall.

See how meaningless statistics are? Do you think the Vendor gives a hoot about CREA TREB BS stats?

Do you think anyone with an offer on this shitbox presented ‘stats’ to the Vendor to justify their offer?
Of course not!

Stats are meaningless- MEANINGLESS.
This seller doesn’t even give a shit about recent sales on his street. HE DOESN’T HAVE TO. yes recent sales are now officially meaningless!—

25 slow TYPISTS lined up to humiliate themselves in public. Oh well, there will be new listings in a few days

#34 Brian Ripley on 03.10.14 at 10:20 pm

Garth said: “it’s obvious the (Toronto) condo market is set to suicide.”

One can see from my comparison chart of Vancouver & GTA housing price chart
http://www.chpc.biz/compare-toronto–vancouver.html

…that although the price gap between VAN and GTA is closing, Vancouver’s excitement peaked in 2012 and Toronto is putting in a price spike in the wrong season when sales are at the lows for the year.

Notice that Vancouver strata prices have been range bound for 6+ years. Unless new buyers appear in the Toronto condo market this year, prices could easily go flat. Buyer will fatigue will set in as it has in Vancouver.

#35 Joe Schmoe on 03.10.14 at 10:22 pm

#33 Eddy is even crabbier than me.

I respect that.

But stats are what allow them to borrow the money they need to buy the house.

#36 roxy on 03.10.14 at 10:29 pm

Lol at these people asking you for your perspective. Do they even know yoU???

#37 TheCatFoodLady on 03.10.14 at 10:36 pm

For a great many people in some of the major markets, it’s not complicated. Doing the math shows it makes a lot more sense to rent & not buy. Prices too high, not enough of a down payment… it adds up to no less than a high risk of financial suicide over the medium to long term. But they buy anyway.

So what the hell is going on? What is it about sharing ownership of a place to live with a bank that makes so many lose all reason? Many of the reasons to want to own I hear from home owners I know can be accommodated if you have a decent relationship with your landlord. It’s helpful if your landlord appears to be in a financially stable position; not looking like they want to sell next year!

Like doing yard work & gardening? Your landlord may be more than happy to pay for needed fertilizers, (always provide receipts), plants & other improvements if you want to do the work. Work well; as if it were your own place.

Like painting & puttering? Agree on an arrangement with your landlord. Again, if the work is needed they may be more than happy to pay for needed supplies.

Another argument I’ve seen is that people want to feel invested in their neighbourhood. You don’t have to own to participate in community groups, be it Neighourhood Watch, kids’ groups, municipal planning committees or anything else.

We all want to feel we belong somewhere – that’s pretty primal. We don’t need to own for that. It’s not a signed paper or payment schedule that induces a sense of belonging – it’s participation where we live, USING local amenities that contribute to that.

I certainly can’t afford to buy; probably never will at this stage of my life. Most living in this city would say my part of town sucks big time. For the most part, they’d be right; it’s not pretty & most of the area is VERY low rent. There are some nice little corners though, made that much nicer by renters who give a damn; who go out of their way to keep things as clean & safe for themselves & others as possible.

Hold your ownership horses until it truly makes financial sense for you. You’re not buying for your mother in law, your snooty sister in law or even your house horny spouse. It has to make sense for YOU & your family. Being able to slap two coats of chartreuse on a wall just because doesn’t make up for having to start missing mortgage payments.

#38 Freedom First on 03.10.14 at 10:41 pm

Throughout my life I have marveled at how the majority of people pay to live a lifestyle right to the nutz of what they can afford and are devoid of using critical thinking to have everything they need without making life a supreme struggle. Do whatever you have to do to be happy right now. It is that simple. No exception.

#39 Frustrated Kiwi on 03.10.14 at 10:41 pm

Rising prices on decreasing volumes here too:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=11217528

And seems to be the case in Oz:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/sydney-property-listings-fall-in-january-as-prices-rise/story-fniz9vg9-1226819667076

#40 Waterloo Resident on 03.10.14 at 10:46 pm

The sell ‘trigger’ was hit today.
If anyone is actively managing their investments, then understand that I am placing a sell-top at the low point of today’s trading range. That means in the next 2 weeks if the S&P falls below 1867 then my stop order will sell all of my holdings and I will be waiting for the next few weeks, maybe months for the market to trend lower.

Now if the market does not fall lower than 1867 on the S&P 500 then that’s good news, the market may go higher. I’m just letting you know to prepare to sell within the next 1 to 4 weeks.

I wanted to tell you something about PEAK OIL and how it is connected to the economic growth cycle, but it was a huge amount of information and so ‘way-over-the-top’ that you would think I was even crazier than Smoking Man, so I’m not even going to bother. Let me just tell you this. If world’s oil production falls by 10% over a period of 4 to 6 years, there will be a recession that will make the last depression look like a picnic by comparison. House prices will be the least of your concerns if that happens.

#41 Led on 03.10.14 at 10:53 pm

Enough with T.O. what happens to Montreal when the PQ get in next month?

#42 nomad on 03.10.14 at 10:58 pm

“Tiny new ones can’t compete with bigger, old ones.”

We’ve been hunting for 4 months in Toronto and it’s true that there is more value with old ones: many old 2 bedrooms sell for under 400k. However, many of those have $850-950/month+ fees. Some of those we’ve seen have attracted zero offers, perhaps because of this.

Those sellers might be worried at this point, though likely they bought them for way less than 400k. I speculate they will keep lowering their prices, especially retirees eager to move out of the city.

#43 Westsider on 03.10.14 at 11:01 pm

Anecdote from Vancouver westside. Friend put house up for sale 2 weeks ago. Wants 1.94 Million. Multiple offers today. Single woman offered asking price. Young couple with 2 kids, stay at home mom, went to bank to meet offer and almost got it.
Help!! What is happening. I can’t imagine how people have nearly 2 million for a 45 ft. lot and an old house.
I can’t imagine this ending well, but no HAM in sight.

#44 Waterloo Resident on 03.10.14 at 11:02 pm

I totally believe what #6 ‘Chopper’ said:

Quote: ((( “The urge to buy a house is so strong people will do anything to get one, even committing financial suicide. It is a symbol of prosperity to own a house. If you are renting then people think you are stupid and poor. People are not making decisions with their head anymore but with their heart, how they feel, sad but they will regret it in time.”)))

Yes, all of that is so true.

oops, sorry, spelling error
It should have said SELL STOP, as in a ‘Sell Stop Order.’ on my previous posting.
The nice things about sell stops is that if the market goes up, you don’t end up selling, the sell order cancels at the end of the time period you specify.

#45 Obvious Truth on 03.10.14 at 11:05 pm

#19 and 20 illustrate why these things always roll over on themselves. Everyone is all in and nothing can push prices higher. Not even the lowest ever rates.

#29 This is not about a company and it’s margins. This is about debt.

Many mainstream articles now starting to anticipate inflation. When you look at the sector rotation this year you can paint a picture. Oil stocks leading oil and miners leading metals. Fins breaking out.

Could we be looking at competition for labour in the US fairly soon?

#46 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 03.10.14 at 11:09 pm

Your perspective would be greatly appreciated.”

There have been over-priced urban areas everywhere for ever. From NYC to Tokyo to Rio to Zurich to Hong Kong to Bombay… Unless you absolutely have to be in a city like that and/or don’t have some special angle where you can live cheaply, move out. It’s not worth it.

Hogtown is no longer like it was in the 60’s, with ample space for all. It’s choking on itself and won’t get any better in your lifetime.

R.E. pricing wars are really only a 2-legged rodents’ version of too many residents in the same bucket setting upon each other when packed too tightly. Same situation in Calgary which is turning into another L.A. this year. The next step down will be societal implosion and adoption of the habits and ways of survival found in tight squalor of dense Indian and Chinese coastal cities. Unless some serious negative population growth kicks in quickly.

Problem is, the weather is too cold here for overpopulated millions to live in sickness and poverty on the sidewalks begging for change. So some other part of the system will have to burst.

#47 Chris on 03.10.14 at 11:11 pm

Chris and Monica are actually Rob and Doug from Etobicoke.

#48 FTP - First Time Poster on 03.10.14 at 11:17 pm

We had our house for the past 8 years, did numerous upgrades to it – both inside and out to make it more comfortable, however, the area we bought in exploded and traffic & the associated noise quickly became a major issue.

We took some (not all) of your advice Garth – got top dollar for the area, got a long close, then took our time looking for what we wanted (and we knew exactly what that was).

We spent a very busy week touring close to 40 properties until one popped on the market that had was in excellent shape and had been previously listed, but languished on the market for 8 months.

We went through the property twice – once during the day and once at night, making sure we took our time to identify any issues. We made an offer $30k below asking and closed $28k below. We got a full inspection and even brought in a separate tech to ensure the in floor heating, boiler and furnace were issue free.

We got a 3yr variable, paid for title insurance as you suggested – but most importantly, we didn’t overextend ourselves to anywhere near the $1M the bank would let us have.

See! Some are paying attention. Thanks Garth!

#49 carzed and a little confused on 03.10.14 at 11:22 pm

32# rocker star
I have $ 260 k in equities ( TFSA, stocks ETfs, GIC)
$ 85 K in RRSP plus university pension fund
my yield is a little low about $ 3400 / yr most of it reinvested automatically
I rent $ 700/ month… the place is a little old but ok. I m looking to buy and some 2bedroom place have gone down in greater Vancouver. but I am in a better position to buy than I was 6-7 years ago .because stocks have gained a lot.

so im not poor but cant afford $ 800k house

#50 Eatin' Bonbons on 03.10.14 at 11:38 pm

Was this semi on Rhodes- Coxwell/ Danforth area? Good grief, is that a new trendy hotspot? It’s mind-boggling for a semi in that area.

Chris & Monica – if you absolutely must buy – head further East and you will find detached houses for about 4 times your salaries. Easily a 30×100 lot or 50×100 further east but still in 416. You’ll find better value, with a solid house. A little give and take though… You can have parks, schools, nice neighbours – but if you absolutely need to have the house AND shopping, Cafes, restaurants etc. either be prepared to drive some minutes to get to those or a short bus ride or really long walk.
Just my 2 cents, as someone who has rented before, but totally gets why many people tire of it and prefer to own (myself included).

#51 Early Spring on 03.10.14 at 11:41 pm

#32 RockHead
Your and idiot. And I am a renter, I will go against any fellow peers and compare net worth. After the smoke and mirrors disappear. #6 chopper had nothing to say about renters being poor, way to chalk one up there under the goof ball comment. Putts

#52 First World Problems on 03.10.14 at 11:44 pm

Really doing some “serious” house shopping here in Ottawa. Made an offer on one house, got fairly close, but didn’t go through and glad it didn’t. We then talked with our friends who own, went out to Kanata, spoke with some friends who live there. What we “knew” but are know honing in on is the impact of our neighbours. We will soon have two kids under 3 years old, and would like to be able to open the door and have them play at neighbours near by. Tough part is you can’t choose your neighbours. I said to wife, “If all of our friends lived on the same street, we’d move to that street no matter the house, location, or cost”. Could move next to one friend, but almost all live in the burbs or outside of preferred school district. So comes down to trying to pick a neighbourhood where chances are best that we and our kids will make good friends with near neighbours. I suppose it raises the question how well that can be done…but if you look close you start seeing the opportunities.

#53 Ralph Cramdown on 03.11.14 at 12:07 am

#30 Shawn — “Rational Borrowers? Why people borrow so much…”

Money Illusion. Their parents tell them that the family homestead was bought (when inflation was 8% and wages were increasing by 8%) and, yes, things were tight for the first few years, but it ended up being the best decision they ever made (as interest rates gradually dropped). The kids borrow enough to be house poor with interest at 3% and wages increasing at perhaps 2%. It won’t turn out the same.

#54 Ontario's Left Coast on 03.11.14 at 12:22 am

7 – What’s voulch? I mean, I can’t even hazard a guess.

24 – You’re recommending 3 moves in 3 years? Really? What are these people, gypsies? Reminds me of the old saying, Three moves are as good as a fire. No thanks.

#55 ruben on 03.11.14 at 12:28 am

Rockstar.. I don’t think you are..but I digress. The vast majority of home owners in this country are not rich or wealthy by any stretch of the imagination. They just pretend. Are you old enough to remember the last time the condo market in TO did a swan dive? People were saying exactly the same things that people such as yourself were. An awful lot of people went broke. I was not one of them as I could not be bothered with such mindless speculation. Oh well.

#56 StatsFreak on 03.11.14 at 12:37 am

Garth, your pictures alone are worth the price of admission!! Keep up the good work.

#57 Cici on 03.11.14 at 12:41 am

#27 Devore

Excellent response, good for you!

#58 Hawk on 03.11.14 at 12:44 am

#2 Sean on 03.10.14 at 8:36 pm

====================

There is likely a lot of divergence in the Rental Market. Renters that have been living at a place for a long time are inevitably greatly subsidized by their landlords since rents are nowhere reflective of market.

On the other hand large swathes of new renters, find renting expensive since landlords will charge market rent. However, that said price/rent ratios are very poor almost everywhere in the GTA.

#59 quebec economist on 03.11.14 at 12:48 am

Find yourself a decent place to rent Chris and Monica and rejoice in the savings. Mortgages outlast the joys of owning a house by 24 years. Need help to find a dream rental unit use the app http://www.Padmapper.com …get renting horny…its like playing for the other team! Ha!

sucess does not equate to owning a house

#60 rocko on 03.11.14 at 12:51 am

#32 Rockstar

Well, as someone who pays less than 18% of his after tax income to rent (including utilities) and lives inner city cowtown, I can tell you that my portfolio is a ‘rockstar’ and my passport has a hell of a lot more stamps than my friends who are ‘rich’ in equity. Funny, those friends of mine can’t seem to afford to join me oin Thailand or come skiing for the weekend or rip down to Vegas for a few nights. Poor suburban house poor fools. Ahh to be 30 and have cash…

#61 James on 03.11.14 at 12:52 am

“The steaming middle is a debt trap.”

Not quite. You can also take a home equity loan and invest. Write off the interest. Manage the cash flow.

#62 D.D. Corkum on 03.11.14 at 12:56 am

I disagree that the interest rates will change in the next two years. The guy at scotia says they are being told 10+ years.

—-

While the future can always bring surprises, no banker or economist worth his salary would make a serious prediction like that.

Interest rates and bond yields have already been low for a remarkable duration. We should be very fearful if Poloz ever comes out saying he won’t raise rates for a whole decade.

#63 A Yank in BC on 03.11.14 at 1:01 am

#32 RockStar
I don’t know about stupid but renters ARE poor. In general, renters are poorer by far than homeowners. Hands down.

Perhaps it is your bias against renters that misleads you into thinking that they’re poor. Many people who rent (like me) could easily afford to purchase the house that they live in.. but why bail-out the landlord? He’s the guy stuck with the depreciating asset. I much prefer stocks and bonds instead. They pay for the rent, and a whole lot more.

#64 Happy Renting on 03.11.14 at 1:19 am

#167 shocked! on 03.10.14 at 6:07 pm
Interesting, very interesting…so, if we are all living off the “fat o’ the investments”, eschewing work and avoiding consumerism at all costs…how does a nation survive and thrive?
That four letter word WORK…should be one of the most important words in our vocabulary…nothing to scoff at, nothing to be ashamed of… the single most significant factor in the progress of any nation.
Hoping the children we’ve raised will feel the same…and contribute, without feeling like they’ve somehow failed because they”NEED” to work!

———–

Think of it this way. Anti-consumerism and hyper-saving to reach the point where you can live off your investments constitutes a very small minority of the population. The starting circumstances, intelligence, hard work, and discipline needed to achieve this is uncommon. So consumption isn’t much affected by this behavior.

Those who reach this point aren’t likely to want to sit idle for decades, watching TV and sitting on the couch. They’ll seek out endeavors chosen by interest or vision. Not NEEDING to work does not preclude making meaningful contributions to humanity. It does, however, free you from being easily exploited by employers. I would argue the efforts made by someone who wants to do something are more valuable than that of someone who’s just in need of the paycheque.

#65 Mrs Hubris on 03.11.14 at 1:22 am

#6 Chopper: Garth you are flogging a dead horse. The urge to buy a house is so strong people will do anything to get one, even committing financial suicide. It is a symbol of prosperity to own a house. If you are renting then people think you are stupid and poor.
____________________________________________
Which indicates they’re a lot more stupid than Garth or you or I…. in which case who cares what they think? However, you’re probably right regarding the Yuppy culture that abounds on the West Coast (young and upwardly aspiring professionals?). Shall we let them eat cake while we decide to invest at double digits or sink cash into a house with terrible odds. Not much choice there….. stupid.

#66 bdy sktrn on 03.11.14 at 1:42 am

from cbc comments…
“In my completely unscientific view, there is but one dominant factor that explains why single-family dwellings are so popular, and expensive:

Living in close proximity to strangers is hellish.

Stomping around half the night? Check. Out-of-control subwoofers? Check. Loud, vicious animals? Check. Screaming matches at all hours? Check. Undiagnosed PTSD and screaming night-terrors all summer, windows open? Check. Table saw at midnight? Check. Throwing furniture outside during a fight? Check. Singing at the top of one’s lungs at 3am? Check. Extremely loud “affection” at all hours? Check. I could go on. All true events from renter’s hell over the past 6 years alone.

Small wonder everyone wants a building to themselves”


i recall long ago when i had to run a curricular saw in my old apt, it was not ,quite, midnight, but everyone got all pissy about it.

———

#67 Happy Renting on 03.11.14 at 2:00 am

#31 Joe Schmoe on 03.10.14 at 10:10 pm

I’m not originally from Toronto but I love living here. We talk about moving for a better quality of life (inexpensive housing, escape the rat race, etc.) but really, we’re not racing to leave.

Toronto is certainly not perfect and I agree, it’s much, much nicer to live here if you have money. I feel the city has given me a lot, though. The arts scene, availability of jobs (granted, industry-dependent), wide pool of potential mates (quality varies, but I found a gem), specialist health care nearby when needed.

There’s also another factor on our minds. There are large ethnic communities in Toronto. We’re a mixed race family and wonder if we’ll blend in as well in a smaller town. We don’t have recent experiences on which to base our concern, so maybe our perceptions are out of date. But we feel accepted and “normal” here, and that’s no small thing. Would love to hear comments or experiences regarding multiculturalism in non-Tor/Van. Anyone?

#68 bdy sktrn on 03.11.14 at 2:01 am

edit; i was not cuttung cirricula.
circular. as in 2×4’s

#69 Happy Renting on 03.11.14 at 2:10 am

“Besides, how would you feel after paying three-quarters of a million dollars for half a house, unrenovated, in the wrong part of the city? Would that bring happiness?”

Just reading that almost brought vomit. Chris and Monica, I hope you listen and keep renting. You are doing all right ($125k/yr) but aren’t earning enough to justify a crazy-expensive house in Toronto. Yes, the unbalanced, bubble market is unfair. But it’s no reason to sink yourselves, financially. Resist the house horniness, embrace your investment account balance!

Today’s pic: I would give that panhandler money! :)

#70 drydock on 03.11.14 at 2:15 am

# 7 Smoking Man.

You’ve been recommending True Detective and it’s good, so try out Orphan Black.
Shot in Toronto loads of suspense really quirky plot that keeps thickening episode after episode.

#71 airhead princess on 03.11.14 at 2:40 am

Oh Oh…. I smell the bacon burning…

““The question people are asking is: will this affect real estate prices in Vancouver? The simple answer is yes. If nothing else, foreign nationals who have purchased homes in anticipation of their applications being processed may rethink their plans and sell their property. In addition, new prospective foreign buyers will be scared off by the lack of an easy avenue to immigrate by. Sales of new condominiums at UBC (a hot bed of Chinese foreign buyers) have already fallen off.”

But how can any of this be true when it was stated so eloquently on this blog that HAM didn’t exist in any form? Of course we all knew that was far from the truth. Thats why the hidden issue was such a laugh……see no evil…speak no evil….hear no evil…..didn’t I hear that at a liberal convention?

But the realtard is right…..what is going to happen when those tens of thousands of HAM that bought in anticipation of becoming newly minted Canadianianianians……..ain’t coming? They didn’t just buy high end homes…they’ve bought blocks of condo’s and a lot of land…….It will all go on the chopping block soon enough. Timberrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!

#72 Humpty Dumpty on 03.11.14 at 2:55 am

All is good… Nothing to see here… Move along….

The amount of debt globally has soared more than 40 percent to $100 trillion since the first signs of the financial crisis as governments borrowed to pull their economies out of recession and companies took advantage of record low interest rates, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

The $30 trillion increase from $70 trillion between mid-2007 and mid-2013 compares with a $3.86 trillion decline in the value of equities to $53.8 trillion in the same period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The jump in debt as measured by the Basel, Switzerland-based BIS in its quarterly review is almost twice the U.S.’s gross domestic product.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-09/global-debt-exceeds-100-trillion-as-governments-binge-bis-says.html

#73 Steven on 03.11.14 at 5:45 am

“People are nuts.”

Absolutely!

#74 TimV on 03.11.14 at 5:57 am

Flipping through recent solds in East York, it’s not obvious to me that prices have increased in the last couple years, and I dare suggest that they may be down relative to the high point of last summer. I wasn’t entirely rigourous in looking for comparables, but I wonder if the (false, I am suggesting) story that prices have increased in the mid-range has taken-in even Garth.

#75 Joe on 03.11.14 at 7:01 am

You forgot to mention a big piece of the real estate puzzle: Scarcity. Scarcity of affordable apartments and houses — whether buying or renting! 90% of what’s for sale is way beyond what most people on their limited incomes can afford. It’s next to impossible to find something decent at what you can afford.

#76 Canadians and their attachment to housing on 03.11.14 at 7:33 am

People continue buying “homes” because they think the value will go up without end. And because it’s one of the few investments where the government actually lets you legally and simply keep the increase in selling value if things go right. Plus if it’s a nice place you also live in it quite happily. And for larger families (1+ kids) it’s also a lower monthly price/sqf.

Like Garth often points out, a lower monthly housing cost + saving the difference can lead to a better financial outcome, but it requires discipline. Also, it gives the renters freedom to move, to pursue more rewarding jobs, to easily walk away from a place or a neighborhood or even a city if things go bad over there.

Yes, if the cost of renting would be equal to owning, then by all means renters would be stupid, qed. But today it’s not as cut and dried. People keep doing the old things because the Ponzi scheme keeps working, or at least that the message. People sell houses for many hundreds of $, but…what do they actually do with the money?

That’s where it becomes blurry…we keep reading (on this blog and in the MSM) about new retirees selling their place for ~$750-1000K, and then…buying a condo for near the same value. Well Ladies and Gents, that is precisely what is irrational and what keeps the machine going.

If the same retirees would pay off all our debt here in Canada and would take their $ and move to some sunny paradise (and there are many countries with retirees’ immigration programs), they could leave much better there and on a fraction of the costs, plus enjoy nice weather and a good life there.

But that would require us to be smart and to think outside the box.

#77 Cdn Flier on 03.11.14 at 7:58 am

Let’s play a game of guess who.

I have two personalities. In real life, I’m an illiterate drunken loner. My distaste for teachers is indicative of a past trauma involving a teacher. Maybe my Mom was a teacher and didn’t hug me enough. Or perhaps, my failure in grade 8 spelling couldn’t possibly be caused by my lack of talent or effort, so I’lll blame it on the failing education system.
My online personality is a business genius, who makes a myriad of RE and business predictions with the goal of having at least one stick and having the rest being forgotten over time. I’m no different than a home based pyschic. By pretending to be I big time gambler and budding novelist, I feel better about myself.

Who am I?

#78 bguy1 on 03.11.14 at 8:24 am

Days to sell a condo in Ottawa in February 2014: 77
Days to sell a condo in Ottawa in February 2013: 49

Nothing to see here…

Source: http://www.youtube.com/user/AgentInOttawa

#79 Fortune500 on 03.11.14 at 8:33 am

Interesting post by this Blogger. If she’s not a reader of your Blog she should be!

http://my-alternate-life.com/what-can-an-average-income-buy/

I imagine most of the ‘savers’ in our cohort have similar views.

#80 TurnerNation on 03.11.14 at 8:37 am

Housing prices are Canada’s de facto One Child Policy? Who can afford.

Everyone into their $300k 500 sq foot “Agenda 21” kando boxes, generating monthly profits for our insurance/booze/banking/telecommunications/
grocery/oil cartels and oligopolies.

H and lil Tru-doh love commie China, the perfect blend of capitalism. We’ll see how this plays out. Damn history.

Everyone report their Block Captains in their producing prefecture.

#81 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.11.14 at 8:40 am

#70 drydock on 03.11.14 at 2:15 am
# 7 Smoking Man.
You’ve been recommending True Detective and it’s good, so try out Orphan Black.
Shot in Toronto loads of suspense really quirky plot that keeps thickening episode after episode.

_____________________________________________

Agreed Drydock, very good show. did not know it was shot in the big smoke, thought Vancouver?

#82 eddy on 03.11.14 at 9:15 am

Now I’ve seen the listing. That house Was on Rhodes. I’ll apologize to the seller for referring to his house as a shitbox – it’s a 15.5 ft
3 bdrm, Two car parking, walk to subway, renovated: (most houses on that street have street parking). The sell price is consistent ant with the street, it was just listed low.

Fifteen feet wide. Wow. — Garth

#83 Penny Henny on 03.11.14 at 9:20 am

Garth-“Higher prices in the teeth of falling demand is not a good harbinger of what’s to come. How can people go to university for seven years and not figure that out?”
——————————————————–
A very true statement Garth but not a very accurate one when describing the resale market in Toronto. Sales numbers are down because listings are down, there are plenty of buyers out there but little to pick from.
Case in point-the house that Chris decided not to offer on had 25 others who did decide to offer. Only one offer won, 24 others are still searching.
As Bigrider would say, the prices they a gonna go uppa, uppa, uppa.

SFH sales in 416 have declined for four years. The higher prices go, the more ultimate downward pressure on sales. Didn’t you learn that in real estate agent school? — Garth

#84 shocked! on 03.11.14 at 9:27 am

#64 Happy Renting
You are precisely correct…contributing to society, by way of paid and/or unpaid endeavors is essential…a nation like Canada was built upon this framework…I, myself, have been fortunate to do both, through hard WORK (education, planning, investing…)
My point was aimed at some, who feel it necessary to ridicule those who are content with working in their chosen profession, while looking forward to a decent pension in the future…it takes all kinds to make the world go ’round.
Perhaps, because I have adult children who are just starting to make their own way in the world, I view things in a slightly more objective manner…

#85 Smoking Man on 03.11.14 at 9:31 am

#70 drydock on 03.11.14 at 2:15 amYou’ve been recommending True Detective and it’s good, so try out Orphan Black.
Shot in Toronto loads of suspense really quirky plot that keeps thickening episode after episode.
…..

If you’re going to recommend a show, date, time, channel would help.
….

DAY 4 No plane how is this posable. No mention of ELT on MSN.
No talk of USA and Russia can track a bubble bee anywhere in the world.

Ufo people.

#86 Penny Henny on 03.11.14 at 9:49 am

#77 Cdn Flier on 03.11.14 at 7:58 am
Let’s play a game of guess who.

I have two personalities. In real life, I’m an illiterate drunken loner. My distaste for teachers is indicative of a past trauma involving a teacher. Maybe my Mom was a teacher and didn’t hug me enough. Or perhaps, my failure in grade 8 spelling couldn’t possibly be caused by my lack of talent or effort, so I’lll blame it on the failing education system.
My online personality is a business genius, who makes a myriad of RE and business predictions with the goal of having at least one stick and having the rest being forgotten over time. I’m no different than a home based pyschic. By pretending to be I big time gambler and budding novelist, I feel better about myself.

Who am I?
—————————————–
Are you Rob Ford?

#87 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.11.14 at 9:50 am

Watched this last night again for fun and thought humm, this sounds familiar!

Three dark-suited Real estate Agents, led by Agent Smith, are determined to prevent Neo from finding out what the True meaning and intention of what “The Matrix” is. (The forthcoming real estate crash) Neo eventually meets Morpheus, (Garth) who warns him that once he shows Neo the Matrix, he will not be able to “go back”. Neo accepts his offer by choosing the red pill; his reality soon disintegrates and he abruptly wakes, naked and weak, in a liquid-filled vessel, finding himself as one of billions of people connected by cables to an elaborate electrical system. He is rescued and brought aboard Morpheus’s levitating ship, the Nebuchadnezzar. (AKA The Greater Fool) The ship leaves the devastated city with hundreds of thousands small concrete cubicles containing the last vestiges of mankind stuck in the city.

#88 Nemesis on 03.11.14 at 9:53 am

#MadMoggies #TomFoolery #FeralFelines

[UK Independent] – Bad cattitude: Family call police after crazed and ‘hostile cat with a history of violence’ attacks baby before attempting to ‘flee custody’

…”Mr Palmer told the dispatcher that the cat “went over the edge” and was repeatedly charging at them every time they attempted to open the door.

“He’s trying to attack us,” he said. “He’s very, very, very, very hostile.” The cat can be heard on the 911 call howling and hissing in the background…

…”The 911 operator stayed on the phone with the caller to ensure the family, including the dog, remained safe in the bedroom as the cat screeched in the background,” a Portland Police Bureau press release said, reported by Fox12 states.”…

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/bad-cattitude-family-call-police-after-crazed-and-hostile-cat-with-a-history-of-violence-attacks-baby-before-attempting-to-flee-custody-9183553.html

#89 Penny Henny on 03.11.14 at 9:54 am

SFH sales in 416 have declined for four years. The higher prices go, the more ultimate downward pressure on sales. Didn’t you learn that in real estate agent school? — Garth
——————————————————-
Don’t tell me. Tell that to the other 24 people who made offers and are still looking.
As I said there is no problem on the buy side but there is a problem on the supply side.
100,000 people per year moving to the GTA.
Still room to go on the upside.

I’ll take that as a ‘no.’ — Garth

#90 Infused with Opiates on 03.11.14 at 10:01 am

For all those renters responding to rockstar @32. The statement was qualified with “in general”. And it is correct, but may not apply to your situation.

But the reasoning is not “one is poor because they
rent” but rather “one rents because they are poor” (and cannot afford to buy).

The best info I had on this is now archived on statscan.

Now everybody pls get over it.

#91 GsAmazon on 03.11.14 at 10:29 am

TheCatFoodLady, gyal you sayin’ what I”m thinkin’….

#92 Daisy Mae on 03.11.14 at 10:52 am

#26 X: “It really is a shame more isn’t done to stop them from ruining their financial lives. Many will never recover.”

******************

These people are adults. Albeit naive. They can educate themselves, but prefer not to. Ultimately, they are free to make their own decisions. It is, and always has been, Buyer Beware.

#93 BCD on 03.11.14 at 10:59 am

Garth: “People are nuts.”
____________________________________________

Yes, but the party continues. Chris and Monica need to decide if it is worth it to buy, then look for a deal (they are always around).

The price will continue to rise. . .interest rates will continue to stay low and people will sell out their futures to get a piece of the house-pie today.

#94 Eight is enough on 03.11.14 at 11:07 am

#40 Waterloo Resident on 03.10.14 at 10:46 pm

… I wanted to tell you something about PEAK OIL and how it is connected to the economic growth cycle, but it was a huge amount of information and so ‘way-over-the-top’ that you would think I was even crazier than Smoking Man, so I’m not even going to bother. Let me just tell you this. If world’s oil production falls by 10% over a period of 4 to 6 years, there will be a recession that will make the last depression look like a picnic by comparison. House prices will be the least of your concerns if that happens.
===================================

Makes standard 8′ RE ceilings seem more attractive.

Alwyn

#95 Smoking Man on 03.11.14 at 11:18 am

#77 Cdn Flier on 03.11.14 at 7:58 am

Ha sour grapes me thinking. Home owners kind of like me inspire of my many short Cummings equally balanced by brilliance.

So I guess you’re in the missed the boat category huh?

Totally understand the resentment

#96 shocked! on 03.11.14 at 11:18 am

“Chris and Monica”…”meet Cheryl and Paul”…

Just wondering…for comparison value…which of these two couples have the better odds…moving forward?

#97 sciencemonkey on 03.11.14 at 11:29 am

Comments on here comparing unaffordable RE to genocide or an unofficial one child policy make a lot of sense. Yes yes it’s the evil shadow government doing this to us, but all the same I wonder if it’s really a bad thing…

Our planet is massively overpopulated, our economies are dependent on ever-increasing amounts of oil that we don’t know whether we can still economically find, and technology is making a lot of workers redundant, with some (but not all) of the good paying jobs being replaced by low-paying service mcjobs. We would be a lot better off with something like 10% of the current world population, but the question is how do you unwind from the teeming masses of humanity that exist now?

The problem is, at the same time we need to keep growing our population (or in Canada’s viewpoint, keep up immigration) or we won’t be able to inflate our debts away with economic growth, and there won’t be enough tax form slaves to pay for the services the boomers will vote themselves.

Talk about stepping on the gas and the brake at the same time!

#98 James on 03.11.14 at 11:48 am

Another proof that long term rates will reman low for a very very long time. Garth will be correct someday…

http://www.marketanthropology.com/2014/03/goldilocks-three-bears.html

#99 bigtown on 03.11.14 at 11:50 am

In the states they have already moved on and now most of the NEW CONSTRUCTION for the FIRST TIME BUYERS is in RENTAL APARTMENTS. It seems in Canada it takes us twice as long to figure out the real problem. The banks and the economists and the civil servant wanks deem overpriced housing as our issue but that is avoiding the real issue of shortage of RENTALS and no RENTAL HOUSING built in decades.

#100 Is eight enough? on 03.11.14 at 11:57 am

#97 sciencemonkey on 03.11.14 at 11:29 am

… Our planet is massively overpopulated, our economies are dependent on ever-increasing amounts of oil that we don’t know whether we can still economically find, and technology is making a lot of workers redundant, with some (but not all) of the good paying jobs being replaced by low-paying service mcjobs. We would be a lot better off with something like 10% of the current world population, but the question is how do you unwind from the teeming masses of humanity that exist now?

The problem is, at the same time we need to keep growing our population (or in Canada’s viewpoint, keep up immigration) or we won’t be able to inflate our debts away with economic growth, and there won’t be enough tax form slaves to pay for the services the boomers will vote themselves.

Talk about stepping on the gas and the brake at the same time!
===================================

Tommy Malthus spoke of such, some years ago. Wasn’t popular, as you can see.

Does Canada need higher levels of immigration to facilitate economic growth?

Alwyn

#101 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.11.14 at 12:00 pm

#95 Smoking Man on 03.11.14 at 11:18 am
#77 Cdn Flier on 03.11.14 at 7:58 am
Ha sour grapes me thinking. Home owners kind of like me inspire of my many short Cummings equally balanced by brilliance.
So I guess you’re in the missed the boat category huh?
Totally understand the resentment

____________________________________________

So he wasn’t talking about Rob Ford? Smoking Man are you sure this was you replying, no spelling or grammatical errors at all? Oops I digress, Cummings…………………..Burton????? Do like his music!

#102 Lurker on 03.11.14 at 12:03 pm

Rockstar (troll): I have a million dollar net worth. I rent. I rent because I understand investing and ROI. I also have far better neighbours where I rent than when I owned my own house. (go figure).

#103 Son of Ponzi on 03.11.14 at 12:08 pm

Missing flight!
People ask how is it possible?
I say Black Swan event.
Few see it coming.
Same will happen with RE.

#104 Longterm on 03.11.14 at 12:09 pm

#64 Happy Renting on 03.11.14 at 1:19 am

You nailed it.

#105 Bottoms_Up on 03.11.14 at 12:13 pm

#66 bdy sktrn on 03.11.14 at 1:42 am
——————————————-
Love your list, thanks for sharing.

Here are some of my personal favourites:

1) Bedroom directly adjacent to neighbour’s toilet, with no sound insulation between the walls.

2) Upstairs neighbour rearranging their furniture at midnight, every night.

3) Underground parking garage jack-hammering; concrete balcony jack-hammering.

4) Being awoken by the fire alarm at 3am, forced to go outside in mid-February in PJs.

#106 pinstripe on 03.11.14 at 12:32 pm

Last weekend I heard a story from a tradesman working in Ft Mac. He is searching to buy a condo in Edmonton and checked on the requirement for financing. A big bank recommended to take a LOC instead of a mortgage. More flexibility in making payment amounts, as much or little as needed. 5.5% interest. No need to jump the hoops as required by a mortgage.

#107 John Prine on 03.11.14 at 12:34 pm

#66 bdy sktrn on 03.11.14 at 1:42 am
from cbc comments…
“In my completely unscientific view, there is but one dominant factor that explains why single-family dwellings are so popular, and expensive:

Living in close proximity to strangers is hellish.

Don’t forget the meetings with strata councils, depending where you are they can be hair pulling experiences..

#108 John B. on 03.11.14 at 12:40 pm

There is one wonderful example of adetached house bidding war in Toronto. Some people are really getting wild. I can’t imagine that I would pay $130k more than was the original price. And it got sold just after nine days it appeared on the market.

I think I should start believing in magic again…

#109 Bottoms_Up on 03.11.14 at 12:46 pm

The PQ has just killed the Quebec border-area real estate market. Wouldn’t want to be an agent in those areas and needing a quick paycheque…

#110 Ret on 03.11.14 at 12:55 pm

I wouldn’t mind living in a planned economy if there was a plan.

#111 Dupcheck on 03.11.14 at 12:55 pm

They are giving away abandoned villages in Spain for free. Where average temperature is 20’C and sunny.

By the way Ontario is getting dumped 20 cm of snow tomorrow. Yey Canada…uggghhhhh…cold…..

#112 jess on 03.11.14 at 1:25 pm

..”It’s next to impossible to find something decent at what you can afford.”

speaking of hell
Have a look at this birdeye view
Zaatari refugee camp, near the Jordanian city of Mafraq
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/18/us-syria-crisis-kerry-refugees-idUSBRE96H0DF20130718

#113 airhead princess on 03.11.14 at 1:30 pm

#72 HD….Half the global debt has been created in China

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/10688667/Markets-hold-breath-as-Chinas-shadow-banking-grinds-to-a-halt.html

The recent lowering of the Yuan is an attempt to export more product…can you imagine? The future is in a franchise of Fifty Cent Stores……because the dollar store will be no more after deflation kicks in. The fact is that price inflation has been allowed to rage in the west to support a cleptocracy of elite civil servants. As we see in the ‘sunshine lists’ there are hundreds of thousands of an elite class of civil servants taking anywhere from hundreds of thousands to millions for doing simple civil service tasks….its out of control….and the government must inflate in order to collect the tax revenue to support the increasing overburden of that elite class. When a country has no industry…like Canada…then it falls to the tax payer to support the oligarchs and union overloads. Get ready for 100% taxation to support the elite government workers.

#114 Ralph Cramdown on 03.11.14 at 1:36 pm

#97 sciencemonkey — “[…] our economies are dependent on ever-increasing amounts of oil that we don’t know whether we can still economically find […]”

Even the originator of the peal oil theory figured hydrocarbons were only a bridge fuel until we got nukes up and running. We’ve got plenty enough oil to move ships and airplanes for centuries, and nuclear can power land based transport and manufacturing. We may also need nuclear for large scale desalination and to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The Japanese gave up on turning their backs on nuclear, and the Germans are just now taking a long, hard look at where their non-nuclear energy is coming from.

That said, I’m long hydrocarbon extraction. Humans can be counted on to do the nuclear thing, after we’ve nearly exhausted every other possibility.

#115 jess on 03.11.14 at 1:40 pm

but alas without all those nutty fools who would feed the knaves?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/07/us-pimco-gross-el-erian-idUSBREA2603X20140307

#116 straight six on 03.11.14 at 1:43 pm

re overpriced condos.. So what’s the problem.
Is there a law against paying for something.. forever?

#117 Ralph Cramdown on 03.11.14 at 1:44 pm

#106 pinstripe — “A big bank recommended to take a LOC instead of a mortgage. More flexibility in making payment amounts, as much or little as needed. 5.5% interest.

Standard IQ test. I was offered a similar deal by Scotia some years ago, but not at 60% more than a competitive 5-year fixed and over double a competitive variable rate!

NB: Bankers are required to quote mortgage rates as “semi-annually, not in advance,” a relic of financing practices from our agrarian past. There is no such requirement for HELOCs, so for fun, ask your favourite banker to convert his HELOC rate to the equivalent semi-annual mortgage rate, or his mortgage rate to an equivalent HELOC rate so you can compare the interest rates apples to apples.

#118 sciencemonkey on 03.11.14 at 2:04 pm

@100 Alwyn
A boss lent me a book called Code Red, and in it they talk about Japan’s situation. They are in dire straits because they have a massive debt they need to inflate away, combined with a declining population. The only way to inflate it away is if they can get 3% yearly economic growth, and since in the best case their workforce is shrinking 1% pa, they need 4% improvement in efficiency. That means that every year they have to find 4% worth of improvements in efficiency and productivity, which I imagine is tough.

I’m only 20% into the book, but it seems like their thesis is that central banks the world over are getting into a massive currency war, and hyperinflation may be a reality soon. Leaving that aside, I want to focus on how the CBs want to inflate debts away. If this plan is successful, all the creditors (those holding the debt) lose a lot of money. In Japan’s case this would be Japanese people and institutions. Is this right, in a moral sense? Or does it serve creditors right for enabling such a toxic level of debt?

In Canada’s case, I suppose immigration helps, although it’s a big IF if all the immigrants are able to find jobs and contribute to GDP. I like the theory that others have stated on here, that immigration is a dual-edged scam designed to drive down Canadians’ wages while at the same time make immigrants spend money in the Canadian economy (but making it hard for the immigrants to earn good salaries).

#119 sciencemonkey on 03.11.14 at 2:07 pm

I also want to comment on the living near people is hellish.

Even though I rent and am thus theoretically supposed to have flexibility, I’m actually deathly afraid to move, because I would a) lose my no-rent-increase-in-4-years apartment, and b) move into an unknown situation with the possibility of bed bugs, cockroaches, noisy or criminal neighbors, no free washing machines on Sunday, etc. Noise pollution is no joke, it can literally ruin your life. I don’t understand why there aren’t harsher laws to protect people from it.

#120 Derek R on 03.11.14 at 2:10 pm

#106 pinstripe on 03.11.14 at 12:32 pm wrote
Last weekend I heard a story from a tradesman working in Ft Mac. He is searching to buy a condo in Edmonton and checked on the requirement for financing. A big bank recommended to take a LOC instead of a mortgage. More flexibility in making payment amounts, as much or little as needed. 5.5% interest. No need to jump the hoops as required by a mortgage.

And no guarantee that the bank won’t turn around at any time and ask him to repay the full outstanding amount before the end of the week. Sounds like a great deal for the bank.

#121 sciencemonkey on 03.11.14 at 2:13 pm

@ 108 Ralph,
Yeah, in Code Red they mention that Japan switching from nuclear to hydrocarbon energy screwed up their balance of trade and set them on the downward economic spiral they are on now.

I am optimistic and hopeful about electric cars and nuclear energy. Apparently we have enough thorium to last us a thousand years, but I think only India is currently working on that type of nuclear reactor. (The US did tests in the sixties.)

Do you think us humans will pull it too close, and leave so little oil in reserve that we won’t have the energy to build the nuclear-electric infrastructure we need to switch over? (Or not be able to build it in time without half of us starving to death?)

#122 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 03.11.14 at 2:18 pm

Probably doesn’t mean anything.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-11/teranet-s-rating-cut-to-bbb-by-dbrs-on-ontario-housing-slowdown.html

#123 Blacksheep on 03.11.14 at 2:39 pm

Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol # 87,

“Watched this last night again for fun and thought humm, this sounds familiar!”

“Three dark-suited Real estate Agents, led by Agent Smith, are determined to prevent Neo from finding out what the True meaning and intention of what “The Matrix” is. (The forthcoming real estate crash) Neo eventually meets Morpheus, (Garth) who warns him that once he shows Neo the Matrix, he will not be able to “go back”. Neo accepts his offer by choosing the red pill; his reality soon disintegrates and he abruptly wakes, naked and weak, in a liquid-filled vessel, finding himself as one of billions of people connected by cables to an elaborate electrical system. He is rescued and brought aboard Morpheus’s levitating ship, the Nebuchadnezzar. (AKA The Greater Fool) The ship leaves the devastated city with hundreds of thousands small concrete cubicles containing the last vestiges of mankind stuck in the city.”
———————————————————-
The Matrix authors were of course referencing our every day lives. Neo represents every person that has ever had that unpleasant feeling our reality, is not as advertised.

Quote:

“MORPHEUS – The matrix is a system Neo, that system is our enemy.”

“When You’re inside you look around what do you see? Business men, teachers, lawyers, carpenters, the very minds of the people ‘we are trying to save’. But until we do these people are still apart of that system, and that makes them our enemies. You have to understand most of those people are ‘not ready to be unplugged’. And many of them are ‘hopelessly depended on the system’, that they will fight to protect it.”

Garth shares many insights, but the rabbit hole goes much deeper than anything discussed on this blog. Taking the red pill is not for the faint of heart, as one must be psychologically prepared to deal with whatever is learned.

By the way, Garth isn’t looking for any body, I see him as more of a gatekeeper.

#124 HD on 03.11.14 at 2:46 pm

@ #119 sciencemonkey on 03.11.14 at 2:07 pm I also want to comment on the living near people is hellish.

Even though I rent and am thus theoretically supposed to have flexibility, I’m actually deathly afraid to move, because I would a) lose my no-rent-increase-in-4-years apartment, and b) move into an unknown situation with the possibility of bed bugs, cockroaches, noisy or criminal neighbors, no free washing machines on Sunday, etc. Noise pollution is no joke, it can literally ruin your life. I don’t understand why there aren’t harsher laws to protect people from it

——————————————————–

Same here. My current rental is too perfect/great. I don’t want to give it up.

Being in Vancouver, I’m scared of where I might end up if I decide to move somewhere else.

Nope, staying put for a while.

Best,

HD

#125 gut check on 03.11.14 at 2:54 pm

I have to laugh at #66, #105 and #107 listing that the best reason to own instead of renting is because “living in close proximity to strangers is hellish” – some of the list of annoyances described have nothing to do with the original statement (proximity to strangers) nor are they avoided at all by owning.

My ownership has not saved me from 11 months (which spanned two summers and two fall seasons) of jackhammering, concrete sawing, backup beepers and excavators within 100 yards of my front door. I should mention that this was at two separate addresses – both OWNED.

Nor did owning my home prevent partiers down the street from ruining my sleep – music, hollering & fireworks. The fact that I OWNED my patio space didn’t stop the noise from 8 or so neighbouring lawnmowers, leaf blowers, etc once or more per week each, one after the other, from rattling my nerves.

It’s ludicrous to argue that owning means you don’t have to deal with neighbours or the sound of building / road repairs. It just means that you can’t get away from them as easily and you have to play much nicer with them when you complain.

#126 joblo on 03.11.14 at 2:54 pm

#80

“”Everyone into their $300k 500 sq foot “Agenda 21″ kando boxes, generating monthly profits for our insurance/booze/banking/telecommunications/
grocery/oil cartels and oligopolies.”

Forgot Media/Airlines/Utilities ….but hey
bout a hundred kinds of cereal
Free trade with South Korea, that’ll solve things, Way to go Steve

#127 Aggregator on 03.11.14 at 3:05 pm

This is what happens when a government moves public mortgage insurance to the private sector.

FANNIE MAE (FNMA) -40%

#128 CalgaryHappyRenter on 03.11.14 at 3:14 pm

Where is the truth?

http://www.rosskay.com/public-reports.html

Quote: “Attempting to educate
consumers without breaking copyright, trademark, corporation and privacy legislation, is simply something that appears impossible, in Canada today.”

#129 Humpty Dumpty on 03.11.14 at 3:29 pm

#114 Ralph Cramdown

Really Ralph! “the nuclear thing”…

Then Desaliate this….

Ex-Japanese PM on How Fukushima Meltdown was Worse Than Chernobyl & Why He Now Opposes Nuclear Power

http://www.democracynow.org/2014/3/11/ex_japanese_pm_on_how_fukushima

A nuclear industry insider has told the ABC that the situation at the stricken Fukushima reactor is still not under control, three years after the disaster there.

The whistleblower says mistakes are made weekly, and contaminated water leaks into the Pacific Ocean every day.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-10/plan-to-send-residents-back-to-fukushima-meets-opposition/5311046

Maybe you and Abe would like to come over for dinner.
Im serving sockeye and coho pacifc salmon..

#130 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.11.14 at 3:34 pm

#123 Blacksheep on 03.11.14 at 2:39 pm

I took the red pill in 1969 and its true there is no turning back.
Morpheus: The Matrix is the world that has been pulled over your eyes to blind you from the truth.

#131 bdy sktrn on 03.11.14 at 3:36 pm

cowboy alert – plug power – plug – down about 50% since this morning. 6.20- more big swings to come.

#132 bdy sktrn on 03.11.14 at 3:47 pm

Im serving sockeye and coho pacifc salmon..

———————
ctv
“A record-shattering number of sockeye salmon is estimated to be returning to the Fraser River this year, but whether the prediction holds any water remains to be seen.
The Department of Fisheries and Oceans is estimating this year’s sockeye run at up to a staggering 72-million fish, more than double the record run of 30 million in 2010.
Experts attribute the potentially massive run to cooler ocean temperatures and plentiful food sources.
The fishing industry is already preparing for the prospect of a banner year.
It’s a fishermen’s dream, obviously,”

even if you eat none, all of the sockeye will get spoken for. yum.

the fish in japan are fine, we are 5000 km away

#133 Smoking Man on 03.11.14 at 4:01 pm

#129 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.11.14 at 3:34 pm

#123 Blacksheep on 03.11.14 at 2:39 pm

I took the red pill in 1969 and its true there is no turning back.
Morpheus: The Matrix is the world that has been pulled over your eyes to blind you from the truth.
…………

Popping pills chased down with a bit of JD far better than drinking the cool aid.

#134 sven on 03.11.14 at 4:10 pm

#66 bdy sktrn on 03.11.14 at 1:42 am

Some of my favorites include:
– upstairs neighbour pooring dog pee from the balcony and all over mine on a daily basis
– same upstairs neighbour opening and closing balcony door 5-6 times every hour to probably let the dog out
– same upstairs neighbour again, renovating and not putting sound proofing under hardware floor. Now it sounds like a giant is walking around. I can’t even imagine what they’re doing, but sounds like they’re walking back and forth for hours
– next door neighbours kid who must be the spawn of satan. no inside voice, only constant screaming. and if he isn’t screaming, he’s crying for hours.

Serenity Now!

#135 Rexx Rock on 03.11.14 at 4:14 pm

First of all,Vancouver,Toronto and Calgary have been the epicenter for huge growth and prosperity for Canada in the last 10 years.Thats why prices increase every year for houses.Its where the jobs are and in Canadian culture only the poor rent,end of story.Prices will stabalize when the economy slows down and interest rates rise in 5 to 10 years down the road.

I love the real estate agent humour on this blog. — Garth

#136 Ratt Out of the Cellar on 03.11.14 at 4:21 pm

#46: Republic of Western Canada:” R.E. pricing wars are really only a 2-legged rodents’ version of too many residents in the same bucket setting upon each other when packed too tightly. Same situation in Calgary which is turning into another L.A. this year. The next step down will be societal implosion and adoption of the habits and ways of survival found in tight squalor of dense Indian and Chinese coastal cities. Unless some serious negative population growth kicks in quickly.”

You are right. This is why I play chess, lift weights and play piano as if my life depended on it. Calgary is a claustrophobic crap hole, overpriced. I want personal space. Chess is an excellent way to get it.

Prairies are not designed for so many people. So the key mentally is figuring out mental coping tools. Some people drink. Others propogate. Others act like bunnies. And smart others play board games, lift weights, and listen to Swedish heavy metal.

#137 Pope Snugglebums the 666nd (aka Nosty) on 03.11.14 at 4:21 pm

#85 Smoking Man on 03.11.14 at 9:31 am — “No talk of USA and Russia can track a bubble bee anywhere in the world. Ufo people.”
— and —
#103 Son of Ponzi on 03.11.14 at 12:08 pm — “I say Black Swan event. Few see it coming.”

North Korea, Devil’s Claw (Bermuda Triangle) or UFO. Aliens, UFOs etc. come from the Astral Plane, the next level to this outer, lowest Physical Level.

#138 I'm stupid on 03.11.14 at 4:26 pm

I don’t understand why people think that owning Realestate=security. I own a modest home in Toronto but I don’t feel secure. I hate cutting grass and shovelling snow. I feel like a slave to my home. I understand that renters are statistically not as wealthy as home owners but that includes individuals on welfare, new immigrants etc etc.

If you look at quality of life between a renter and owner (given the same income) I can guarantee the renter wins. I owned a rental property when I was 20. The lady that rented my place was making 250k a year in 2000. No joke, I was dumbfounded I couldn’t understand why she would rent so I asked her. She told me she couldn’t be bothered with the headaches associated with owning and her free time was too precious to waste. She paid me extra to cut grass and shovel snow. Who was the winner in the relationship? I am no longer a landlord and don’t plan to ever be one again.

Financial security is what is most important. My younger brother worked in a hotel for co-op. The hotel was full of pro sports players that played for either the Leafs, Raptors or Jays. They could easily buy anything but choose to pay 20-30k a month to live in the hotel. They do it so they can stay mobile. That’s security.

#139 gladiator on 03.11.14 at 4:32 pm

@129 Holy Crap:
can you please elaborate on how you took the red pill and what you see that others don’t?
Many here took the RE red pill, but maybe there are other types of it?
Thanks in advance.

#140 Ralph Cramdown on 03.11.14 at 4:34 pm

#121 sciencemonkey — “Do you think us humans will pull it too close, and leave so little oil in reserve that we won’t have the energy to build the nuclear-electric infrastructure we need to switch over? (Or not be able to build it in time without half of us starving to death?)”

No, I’m an optimist. Energy market prices will signal clearly where we’re at, and constructing nukes is a solved problem, and orders of magnitude less expensive than solving some other possible problems (adapting to or attenuating climate change, rise in sea levels, widespread crop failures). I wish we’d switch to nuclear sooner, but I’m sure we’ll do it before we run out of hydrocarbon energy.

It’ll be an uphill battle all the way, fighting the combined forces of environmentalists (who don’t want to admit that the choice is between nuclear and burning LOTS of hydrocarbons, including as much of China’s vast brown coal deposits as they can burn and still breathe), and the oil industry which will grossly understate the costs of hydrocarbons and overstate the dangers of nukes.

#141 DR on 03.11.14 at 4:42 pm

Garth, I mean it isn’t that hard- I don’t know why they would write to you about it.
I have found so many deals the past two years its not funny. In and around Leslieville all the way to Roncesvalles.

#142 Aggregator on 03.11.14 at 4:44 pm

Winter’s chill can’t freeze condo boom

Neither weather nor worry is putting a chill on condominium construction.

Developers began building a surprisingly high number of condo units in February, despite freezing temperatures and fears of overbuilding in cities like Toronto, Montreal and Quebec City.

A new reading Monday on the strength of the condo market, particularly in Central and Eastern Canada, raised eyebrows among economists. And it came at the same time as a new forecast suggested that Toronto, the city that ignited talk of a condo bubble, is facing declining prices this year and next.

Pffft. Who needs good weather when you can sell/export condo futures contracts online to the world?

(A. Mager 2013) Rapid Condominium Growth and the Emergence of the Ultra-Luxury Condominium Market in Toronto, Canada PDF

President of Graywood Developments Ltd., mentions,

“You have to brand your products; setting it apart from your competition is very important. Ritz Carlton is very strong on the branding side. We spent an enormous amount of money on marketing, and advertising, and promoting this thing. And we traveled literally around the world marketing it. I sent out a team, and I went myself, around the world; my partner went to Russia, Ireland, and Dubai. I went to the Orient; Singapore, Shanghai, Jakarta, Beijing. We had other people go to South Korea… we were all over. And over the years, we managed to successfully sell quite a few of these units. Our market is an international market. We really do have a United Nations in this building and it’s fabulous. We would have I’d say about 60% local and 40% international; we have buyers from all over the world, and we still do. (S. Gutfreund, personal communication, Sept. 14, 2012)”

#143 DR on 03.11.14 at 4:58 pm

#7 Smoking Man on 03.10.14 at 8:42 pm
Missing the boat sucks. Lost opportunity hurts.
——————————-
I have been saying house prices would rise for a long time. But you cant help them when nooooone listens.

House on ASHDALE which is at Coxwell and Queen-3 units renovated just got a ridiculous 910,000 sale price. listed at 649K.

4 years ago it was 350-450K….and houses were actually sitting on the market without buyers.

Tons of those examples but don’t get me started.

#144 Not a black swan on 03.11.14 at 5:02 pm

The coming RE deflation is not a black swan. It’s simple math. The RE market is overvalued. The timing is difficult to predict, but a correction is highly likely. Taleb might consider this to be a Black Swan, but he has a very poor grasp of statistics and mathematics.

#145 Devore on 03.11.14 at 5:32 pm

137 I’m stupid

Right on. True wealth is having options, which money gives you. And the option to increase available time is the most precious of all, because time is the most valuable commodity. You can trade money for time, that is an exchange you should be happy to make any time.

I used to take lots of pride (and time) building my own computer. Now I pay some kid at NCIX 30 bucks to do it for me. He does it quickly, does it right, and it comes with a warranty. I rest easy knowing I could do it myself if I had to or really wanted to, and that nothing will blow up when I flip the switch. I still pick my own parts, but can see the day when I will just say “build me this”, because doing all that research is time consuming and tedious, and ultimately a waste of my time.

Same with houses. Owning is not for everyone, even though so many force themselves to do it, and many feel chained to and trapped by their house. I used to own, and sold my condo 4 years ago. I was spending too much money and time on it , both I decided could be much better spent, so I made the jump and sold. It was a difficult and contrary decision, but in the end my priorities were clear; be miserable in my own condo, or have a higher quality of life renting a nice apartment, saving lots of money and time.

#146 Nemesis on 03.11.14 at 5:32 pm

@Ralph/#140

Be careful what you wish for…

http://youtu.be/iNyrSR5JGh8

#147 Derek R on 03.11.14 at 5:35 pm

#124 HD on 03.11.14 at 2:46 pm wrote:
Same here. My current rental is too perfect/great. I don’t want to give it up.

Aren’t First World Problems the pits?

#148 eddy on 03.11.14 at 5:44 pm

Fifteen feet wide. Wow. — Garth

You’re right, I was being too kind. There are very few houses with smaller frontages, one block west on Craven Rd. there are some 12 ft fronts.
This lot equals the interior width of a 1.5 garage.

per front foot that’s $46,279 per ft. wow!

Life is expensive at the bottom of the housing market. In other words bigger lots, ie more expensive lots (in the same area) are cheaper per front foot or per sq ft.

#149 Blacksheep on 03.11.14 at 6:05 pm

Smoking Man # 133,

“Popping pills chased down with a bit of JD far better than drinking the cool aid.”
—————————————————————-
JD is for bitches.

Real men drink Chivas on ice, do you own a firearm yet?

#150 Happy Renting on 03.11.14 at 6:21 pm

#138 I’m stupid on 03.11.14 at 4:26 pm

I can’t even imagine having to shovel a driveway, cut grass, or do much home maintenance. Evenings and weekends are for working overtime. When would I find the time for house repairs?

Another conundrum of overpriced housing: you’re working so much to pay for it you don’t have time to enjoy or maintain it.

#151 AfterTheHouseSold on 03.11.14 at 6:24 pm

#40 Waterloo Resident

“if s&p hits 1867…sell all holdings”

That was fast!

#152 amiableCDN on 03.12.14 at 6:52 am

There are INCREDIBLE bargains out there especially compared to the examples in the article … just give up on the GOTTA BE in urban large cities obsessions.

http://tarajories.blogspot.ca/

This retreat house is worth 3-4 times what they are asking… 100 times what the Toronto condo is

Don’t believe so?? Check it out — one of a kind in the WORLD.

511 E Clear Lake Dr, Fremont, IN 46737
– on the border in Indiania next to Illinois

By Owner: $1,695,000

“Comps” can’t even be validly done. There is NOTHING in the area or most of the country to compare to it. A true one-of-a-kind.Zestimate is ridiculously way off. Zillow says it’s automatic and can’t be changed with swamp and farmland in consideration near this high-end resort arena. Fascinating History; Nobel Prize winner’s work on the property; ancient Native “Hill of Health”; etc.

http://www.tarajories.com/

Our location is the midst of 360* multi-million dollar estates, being the largest and most prestigious of all, with the vast-in-comparison acreage and location, location, location the cash crop, and the 2 fully-furnished abodes a free bonus. *

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/511-E-Clear-Lake-Dr-Fremont-IN-46737/2139168317_zpid/

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The Crown Jewel of Ultra Prestigious Clear Lake ~ The expanse of 461 waterfront feet on 4.334 full acres of plushly forested, private, gated, finely honed, waterfront property in Clear Lake on virtually private Lake Anne is the main draw here. Shrouded privacy segways to bustling Clear Lake immediately via fully navigable, lush lagoon inlet. The 2 unique-in-the-extreme abodes are the bonus. Nothing compares. 2010 market adjusted pricing. 3% commission if your contact buys.

Both Main Manor, 1488+/- s/f, and 2-story Gentlemen’s Quarters, 1100+ s/f additional finely finished living space, feature 2 unique MAX~Q Light & Sound Therapy Spa/Baths, 4+ bedrooms, 2 kitchens, 2 great rooms, 16′ cathedral ceilings with 8 skylights, 2 sliding glass doors & 12 ft front bay window in the heart of The MAX~Q’s atrium/conservatory/recording studio, 2 libraries/office/studies, starfield features, meditation room, compact master suite with MAX~Q spa/bath, walk-in closet & laundry attached. Find more with 24×16′ workshop/art studio in GQ with shop tools, and separate garden shed with lawn tractor & tools included to pamper yourself in this literally maintenance-free forest. Reliable local maintenance crews have it handled so all you need do is show up.

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Lake Anne is a private, protected, paradise amongst some of the most valuable, desired (and already developed) property in the mid-East. Tarajories is unique as a huge, private property but just seconds from the much more highly developed shoreline, neighbors and activities of Clear Lake.

Note how over the years Clear Lake has been developed into a shoulder to shoulder strip of vacation homes and docks. Lake Anne is pristine and private.

Clear Lake properties ARE desirable and Tarajories is a Clear Lake address (across the street). This hides the treasure and secret of Tarajories – a nearly 5 acre paradise on a secluded, limited access lake which is still within reach of everything.

http://tarajories.blogspot.ca/ (same link as at top)

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Google Map Pic: 6 hours drive from Hamilton, Ontario: on Michigan / Indiana border pic.twitter.com/3dyDZqdTTj