Out there

BEER modified

As pointed out here often, there’s no real estate market, like there is a stock market. While a share in RBC sells for the same price in Vancouver as it does in Dartmouth, a two-story, four-bedroom detached house on a 50-foot lot sure doesn’t. So in many ways the endless discussion about whether properties are dangerously bubbly, or will rise forever, is a waste of time. It all depends where you live – and in many parts of the country, real estate’s already in retreat.

Take the biggest urban area east of Quebec, for example. With 400,000 people, Halifax is a major market. Local agents are blaming the weather for what can only be called a collapse in housing, when most people think there are far larger forces at play. Housing speculation ran rampant three years ago after the feds announced a $25-billion ship-building program that would keep the city humming.

Yep, the same program that was quietly skewered in the last federal budget – along with local real estate. January sales in Halifax-Dartmouth collapsed 36.6% from the same month a year earlier, while average prices are now down 10.5%. This is what a correction looks like.

Meanwhile the second-largest real estate market in the country is Montreal, a city of 3.8 million people, has hit the real estate wall. 2013 was a lousy year, and this year (so far) is worse. Barely more than 2,000 properties changed hands in January, a 2% drop from the previous January – which sustained a 14% drop from January of 2012. Yikes.

Prices in Montreal are flat – with the average days-on-market jumping by 15. Condo sales have dropped 4%, and a single-family home averages just $272,000. Active listings are up for the 41st month in a row, which means this is one giant buyer’s market.

Ontario? It ain’t just Toronto.

To the east, for example, is Kingston – a beautiful, historic lakefront city of more than 120,000 souls, two hours out of the orb of the hyperventilating GTA. Real estate sales there have tumbled almost 20% compared to this time a year ago, while prices are running about the rate of inflation. The most worrisome sign, however: there are now 11.5 months of inventory, which means anybody trying to sell their home might still be waiting for a buyer in the winter of 2015.

To the west, London. With over four hundred thousand people, it’s the tenth largest city in the country, home to a sleepy housing market with prices that would make someone in Oakville – barely an hour to the east – drool in envy. Here, again, things are not going well at the moment. Sales have dropped year/year by 13% and prices are stuck in the snow.

The average detached SFH in London sells for $262,632, basically unchanged from previous months, while the average condo (at $169,450) is 4% cheaper. Just next door, poor St. Thomas – now home to a big, hulkin’, empty, sad Ford plant – has even cheaper homes, down from this time last year by 17%.

Of course, I could carry on. And will. Here’s Regina, provincial capital of that big, flat place, where sales of houses have declined 7% from last year, while the length of time it takes to sell a place has jumped 30%. And over in Victoria, home to absurdly expensive houses – many of the most expensive ones now on the market for well over a year – sales are up, but prices are falling. The Frankenumber is down about 2%. It’s also worth nothing January of last year was a disaster, so a 16% jump in sales is somewhat of a hollow victory.

Well, there ya go. Millions of Canadians live in places where bidding wars, escalating prices, no-condition offers or quick sales are completely unknown. A majority of markets are stagnating, with declining sales, prices or both. Hardly surprising with a slower economy, flat household incomes, record debt levels and real estate values which many sane families find ridiculous.

And speaking of ridiculous, here’s RBC.

A reporter from CTV called me today. “I’m doing a story on how houses are now affordable according to the Royal Bank,” she cooed. “But they’re not,” I said. “Can I interview you,” she asked? “No,” I said. “I broke my leg, I’m surly, and can’t get to your studio this afternoon. Besides, did you actually read what the bank said?”

She had not.

For the record, RBC now says small gains in household income (?) mean home ownership is a little less onerous that a few months ago. However, it still takes 55.6% of a family’s gross income (with a 25% down payment) to carry a Toronto house, and 82% of gross income (which is more than 100% of take-home pay) to do the same in Vancouver. Nationally the number is 43% for a bungalow and 48% for a standard suburban home – which still gobbles almost two-thirds of gross income.

But here’s the thing. The bank warns it’ll get worse.

“RBC anticipates that as longer-term interest rates begin to moderately rise, the costs of owning a home at market value will gradually outpace (growth) household incomes by late-2014, leading to strained affordability in several markets across Canada, much like the trend in Toronto.”

In other words, you can’t fight the bond market. Even a modicum of economic revival will bring higher yields, and rates. It is as inevitable as those claiming mortgages will never rise are wrong.

Then we could all feel like St. Thomas, where Jumbo died.

170 comments ↓

#1 Mike on 02.25.14 at 9:02 pm

LOL, Canadian soup=Beer.
Not at all surprising given that our Canadian national dish is Poutine :)

#2 Derek R on 02.25.14 at 9:05 pm

Barley soup. Yum, yum!

#3 uranidiot on 02.25.14 at 9:06 pm

so hurry up all canadians sell ur house like
Garth says….then where the bleep will u live?

Only the at-risk need sell. — Garth

#4 goldie on 02.25.14 at 9:06 pm

Hi.

the bitcoin fun continues. click on the link to read the story and see some sad looking guys sitting outside the building with signs asking what happened to their money.

“TOKYO — Mt. Gox, the Tokyo-based Bitcoin exchange that halted withdrawals this month, has gone offline as a document surfaced alleging long-term theft of about $365 million in the digital currency…”

Read more here: http://www.bradenton.com/2014/02/25/5014012/mt-gox-bitcoin-exchange-down-amid.html#storylink=cpy

#5 Derek R on 02.25.14 at 9:12 pm

Thinking of Jumbo still makes me sad. I wish you hadn’t mentioned him.

#6 Ray Skunk on 02.25.14 at 9:14 pm

I wonder how many other blog dogs have visited the Jumbo statue…

#7 Son of Ponzi on 02.25.14 at 9:14 pm

Barley soup.
My favorite.

#8 jan on 02.25.14 at 9:19 pm

What part of Canadians are not renting Germans do you not understand sir !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Pretty much all of that. — Garth

#9 Jonesy on 02.25.14 at 9:26 pm

What about vancouver westside? I just learned that the house I rented less than a year ago is on the market. It was bought in a bidding war for over 2 million about a year ago, and the asking price now is over 2.4 million. Anyone know if this is a realistic asking price? Enjoying renting, but this is a pain.

#10 Spiltbongwater on 02.25.14 at 9:27 pm

Mt. Gox just Madoffed with all the investors money.

#11 Ford Prefect on 02.25.14 at 9:27 pm

Good to see discussion of real estate markets other than Vancouver etc. Interesting ad today on CL in Comox Valley:

“have several properties, willing to carry mortgage for a time. 1 in Roysten, 5 in courtenay

250 792 0824” .

That is entire ad. Sounds like desperation to sell but I am not sure.

#12 Flamed out in Kitchener on 02.25.14 at 9:30 pm

Bond prices will try to push higher, but I think they will ebb and flow over an extended period. Yes, ultimately the trend is up, but there is such a drag on growth that the rise in bond yields will take much longer than we think – I’m thinking one full point (100 basis points) by no earlier than mid 2017.

If there is a banking hiccup in China, with a corresponding slowdown in domestic growth / demand, then I’d even push that out to about 2019 for any meaningful increases in bond / mortgage yields. Time will tell.

Here in mid South Western Ontario (Kitchener) … any good house, priced well, moves quickly with few issues. Especially anything of quality – mid 1960’s , with lots of updates. Went to one open house last weekend … had to park way down the block … about 20 people in the house … gone the next day with several offers. Still lots of people in the market … if in a good location, and a good price (here that means around $360 -390K for 3 bds. w/ 2 to 3 bthrms.) … Blackberry issues in Waterloo haven’t really slowed this area down.

BTW Garth … I’ve heard that a good 15 year Scotch will make your blood flow better and aid in healing broken bones … as will the thought of riding your MC in early June in Niagara wine country …

#13 waiting on 02.25.14 at 9:31 pm

Re: Halifax.
About the time the ship-building program was announced I thought of investing some of the money from my Vancouver house sale and buy a small multi-family place in Halifax. (It was before I discovered this blog.) I contacted a Halifax realtor and also spoke to a property manager she recommended. They both warned me AGAINST buying. They both had many years of experience and anecdotal information to dispense especially on being a non-resident landlord.
The agent dutifully sent me some listings and on all the ones I sent her she gave me a lot of insight into why they were priced the way they were. I remember her telling me that she was getting a number of calls from Vancouver from people like me. Her comment about the ship-building boom was that it was still a ways off and it may not have the impact that was being implied in the press. She also warned me that I would not see my investment appreciate in any way like the Vancouver market had done. She was very honest. I never did buy, but if I ever do, I’d use her as my realtor for sure.
Meanwhile, I was being constantly hounded by the realtor who sold my Vancouver place as to when I was going to buy something else.

#14 Victor V on 02.25.14 at 9:31 pm

15 Ridgewood Road – FOREST HILL

http://themashcanada.blogspot.ca/2014/02/and-it-went-for-15-ridgewood-road.html

IT SOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

After TWENTY price drops….

February 23 $4,398,888
March 5 $4,397,888
March 12 $4,396,888
March 14 $4,394,888
March 15 $4,393,888
March 16 $4,392,888
March 17 $4,391,888
March 18 $4,388,888
March 28 $4,349,000
April 15 $4,348,000
April 22 $4,299,000
April 29 $4,249,000
May 4 $4,199,000
May 11 $4,149,000
May 23 $4,099,000 (this price didn’t last long!)
May 23 $3,999,000
June 13 $3,888,888
August 2 $3,598,888
September 28 $3,259,000
January 16 $2,999,900

The 4+1 bedroom, 9 bathroom house on a 61 x 290 foot lot at 15 Ridgewood Road in Forest Hill has FINALLY sold….

For $2,675,000!!!

#15 Nemesis on 02.25.14 at 9:32 pm

Metaphorically speaking… it’s “LastCall”.

http://youtu.be/tonXBiPY93s

[NoteToGT: I couldn’t resist.]

#16 Rcd on 02.25.14 at 9:33 pm

In toronto in particular it would good to know for those people chasing these $750,000 to $1,000,000 homes with bidding wars and no conditions how much equity they are putting down vs mortgage financing. Are most putting down only 20%?

#17 gmcccc on 02.25.14 at 9:36 pm

How about a blog dedicated to gold hey!
Trying to find value in things, and where to start,
Gold like all the other elements on the periodic table.
most are in their natural state, and to get them in their pure form requires money, gold is rare and cannot be duplicated, it cost money to extract it, and should only be about $200 to $300/oz, in a stable economic environment, it acts as a barometer to the world economies, so therefore what is telling us today is things aren’t so good, it’s not that gold price is high, it reflects the lost buying power of the dollar, as I have said before, the dollar is only god as long as the crowed believe it has value. At one time in history a modern power house economy had it priced at 2 trillion dollars /OZ.(Germany).
tomorrow where is the price headed, many are saying $1300/oz is cheap, but could go down to $1000/oz before a major move to the upside, due to the hockey stick chart money printing machine.
The funny thing about gold is once the price starts to rise much higher the the herd starts to come in droves and the price climbs higher.
When is a good time to get in.
and is the CEF a safe investment

what you say Garth
today listed price is $1340, but if you actually want to buy the physical, it is $1500/oz

#18 jan on 02.25.14 at 9:36 pm

I sir for one am one of those Canadians who would rather eat cat-food in my own paid for home then pay someone else’s mortgage off.
Came here with nothing 20+ years ago from Poland and can tell you that everyone I know including my local born Canadian friends are of the same mindset as I am so, good luck with all those messages of balance and renting your digs.
Hope your leg is healing well.
Piece man.

#19 RockStar on 02.25.14 at 9:37 pm

Canadians as a whole, have $9.4T in assets. Only a third of Canadian assets, or $3T.

The total dollar value of mortgages is even smaller, at $1T. Canadians are getting richer. Sorry bears.

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/02/25/canada-middle-class-statscan-net-worth/

#20 TheCatFoodLady on 02.25.14 at 9:38 pm

I may be the only Kingstonian regularly commenting here & I can attest to what Garth says when it comes to Kingston & so does KREA:

http://creastats.crea.ca/king/

There’s a diffident excuse about weather affecting sales & a hope that the spring market will pick up. 19% drop in sales is NOT simply weather. Listings of all types of properties were up 14% – theoretically lots of choice for buyers.

No buyers.

And very few price drops when clearly buyers are speaking by keeping their cheque books in their pockets. I know a lot of owners that keep listing, pulling when they don’t get their price, listing again – rinse & repeat. FSBO is doing really badly & poorly maintained, small landlord rentals are doing poorly as well. With the latter, many of these poor folks are drinking the ‘become a landlord & make money hand over fist’ koolaid. They don’t do their research. It’s damned hard to make money as a small landlord & truly, the deck s stacked against you – ask anyone here in that position.

Something is shifting in this city over & above the teetering housing market. There are few jobs leading to anything & anecdotally, I’m hearing of more & more people leaving town to find work – good for them because there are few decent jobs here.

We have one of the lowest vacancy rates in Ontario for rentals yet with very little that’s affordable, (for Kingston), coming on to the market. Yet decent, lower rent places have vacancies – what’s going on? Some of it is due to younger folks leaving town for work. Others simply aren’t leaving Mom & Dad’s place – lower number of starter households. In many other cases, young people are splitting. Why spend $1,000 on a not so nice 1 bedroom when you & a buddy can split a really nice $1,500 2 bedroom?

We’ve just had a ‘higher class’ rental open &… it’s not renting. Condos are staying on the market longer & some condo projects are simply languishing.

Spring will be very interesting.

#21 Nemesis on 02.25.14 at 9:40 pm

Addendum:

http://youtu.be/M0zTunFLdwY

[NoteToCinephiles: The WorkingTitle was changed to “Last Orders” for the North American market. NoteToSM: Read the novel.]

#22 jan on 02.25.14 at 9:43 pm

Pardon me
I meant peace all.

#23 WTF(Where's Terry Fudge) on 02.25.14 at 9:51 pm

#3 uranidiot,
uranus

#24 april on 02.25.14 at 9:51 pm

#9 jonesy – check out Vancouverpricedrop.

#25 Assquach on 02.25.14 at 9:57 pm

Listening to the radio every weekend, I always hear ads for investing in fancy coloured diamonds, as well as gold and silver. Garth, what are your thoughts on the future value of fancy coloured diamonds?

#26 the jaguar on 02.25.14 at 10:00 pm

The reference to St Thomas and Jumbo the elephant was brilliant, Garth. You sure make me smile.
Some of the posts here get a little heavy. I like the information and thoughtful posts, not the vitriol and angst of some…..

#27 Dyslexic Smoking Man on 02.25.14 at 10:03 pm

Fear, Fear and Fear, the dichotomy of all the posters her, Bulls, Bears, and chicken halks.

Of the 2000 or so people that googled the Dyslexic Smoking Man yesterday to have a peek at this handsom devil, only 5 left comments. Just 5. Fear!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I only keep my identity a secret to protect people I work with, my cliants and my family.

It’s pretty safe to say that in 75 years from now, everyone of us will be decomposing or down to our bones.

Everyone want’s money and when they can’t figure out how to make it, they want there loved ones with it to lose it. I read it here everyday.

Most of you want it so you can buy things, so your things can do the talking for you, rather than grow a set and open your mouth, not being invited to future family functions is the price you pay small fee for freedom……

Money should only be looked at as poker chips, altho in the next 20 years Even the great Gartho may end up with more loot stashed in his attic than me. Or I may keep hitting it out of the ball park. It doesn’t matter in the end.

When your old and lucky enough to be conciouse as you breath down your last breath. If you have lived like me, void of show, just bet, win some lose some but always fun fun fun…………….I will be smiling.

#28 takla on 02.25.14 at 10:04 pm

re#11…..funny ,I was running an add looking for a free hold property with serviced cabin in a rural S.E B.C rural location and an owner of multiple properties contacted me.HE Was sounding increasingly desperate to unload one at the still elevated prices on a for sale by owner deal.I felt somewhat sorry for the dude when he mentioned he had 8 properties for me to choose from….

#29 Lead Paint on 02.25.14 at 10:13 pm

#19 RockStar on 02.25.14 at 9:37 pm

I was surprised by this article. An ageing population is partially responsible and once boomers really retire in droves will diminish their savings. Also, it’s not really all that great news, particularly if you don’t think inflation is accurately calculated.

“Consequently, the three middle quintiles — which can roughly be defined as Canada’s middle class — increased their share of the country’s $8.07-trillion personal net worth by 1.8 percentage points.”

Not much to brag about!

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/02/25/canada-middle-class-statscan-net-worth/

#30 NoOneOfConsequence on 02.25.14 at 10:14 pm

RE: #17 Gold spew…..

Lol gold bug myths….the price for an ounce of gold at the local dealer is $1385 USD, which is $1540 CAN. As usual, the gold bugs are misleading us again.

You should be selling gold right now…The short term moving average is less than the long term moving average, and the current price is greater than both.

Oh yeah…I forgot…you gold “investors” buy but never sell….consequently you make ZERO on your ‘investments.

#31 Son of Ponzi on 02.25.14 at 10:15 pm

Question.
If ROI on shares, stocks, bonds etc. follow Pareto’s distribution, which I believe they do.
Even if you have a balanced and diversified portfolio, only 20% of your holdings will make you money, 80% will be dogs.
Just thinking.

#32 Nosty Sittin' On The Dock Of The Bay on 02.25.14 at 10:22 pm

#223 bill on 02.25.14 at 8:46 pm — “nope .they shot it at the Edgewater Inn …a dancing lesson I believe…”

Now I remember . . . the glorious, Motown-influenced THE MUDSHARKS!

Sorry, just tripping the light fantastic!

#10 Spiltbongwater on 02.25.14 at 9:27 pm — “Mt. Gox just Madoffed with all the investors money.”

Ah yes, history rhymes and repeats because sheeple always will be greedy.

#33 Smoking Man on 02.25.14 at 10:22 pm

Further to my above post, I equate risk taking to fighting, unless you have been punched in the face a few times, got mad then landed a few.

Then you realize the fear of fighting was just a dumb fear.

Investing, and risk taking no different. You need to knocked down a few times before you get good.

That’s what I hated about school. Fighting ain’t allowed, neither is risk taking.

Tools and secrets for property never divulged, after all there mandate is to make slaves..

#34 zee on 02.25.14 at 10:24 pm

Garth,

If a few small cap stocks went down then will you jump to conclude that the some of the large cap stocks is going to correct. The answer is No.

So why do it with Real Estate.

Groundless analogy. (And Montreal is bigger than Van.) — Garth

#35 Smoking Man on 02.25.14 at 10:24 pm

Property, should have read prosperity… Yup had a few….

#36 X on 02.25.14 at 10:25 pm

“it still takes 55.6% of a family’s gross income (with a 25% down payment) to carry a Toronto house, and 82% of gross income (which is more than 100% of take-home pay) to do the same in Vancouver”

I would be curious to see what those % of family gross income look like with the average 7% downpayment as opposed to a 25% downpayment in the stats done by RBC.

#37 4 AM Sunrise on 02.25.14 at 10:28 pm

#212 I’m stupid on 02.25.14 at 7:01 pm
The problem with Canada is the same as the rest of the world, poor education. Why isn’t it mandatory for high school kids to take a personal finance course? Why doesn’t it even exist? Why the hell are these kids wasting their time with Drama, geography, gym etc etc etc.
—————————————————

There IS a personal finance course (in BC, anyway). It’s one chapter (of 10) in Math 11 where they learn how to calculate the rate of CPP/EI deductions and the basic math behind borrowing and investing, commissions and discounting. The material is pretty dry, so most students nod off. They don’t see its relevance to their immediate future as cutthroat university applicants, and I don’t blame them.

When I was in school I took Economics in grade 11 for fun. Most of the students were slackers looking for an “easy” course. With the right teacher, it should have been a good grounding in the real world and how markets govern everything from your starting salary to whether you’ll get lucky on Friday night. My teacher was a kind English grad who depended on my passion for investing and editorial cartoons to get him through the class. But I know in private schools, they do stock market clubs and entrepreneurial training with the kids.

#38 Basic Heartbeat on 02.25.14 at 10:28 pm

Garth, In what instance to interest rates not rise for an extended period of time like 5 years for instance?

#39 Buckwheat Suitcase on 02.25.14 at 10:30 pm

Did Japan not keep their interest rates extremely low for an indefinite period of time?

#40 4 AM Sunrise on 02.25.14 at 10:33 pm

#209 gut check on 02.25.14 at 6:41 pm

[did some calculations and concluded that renting and owning are about the same for them]
——————————————————-

Did anybody notice that these folks are self-employed? When their calculations showed that renting and owning cost about the same, I believe them…because their residence IS their workplace. That’s different from if it was just a residence, like most of the house-hornies and the condo lust they impose on their offspring.

#41 gut check on 02.25.14 at 10:33 pm

Kingstonian here. CatFoodLady is right about the rental market and residential MLS listings sitting for ages without a single price drop. I see some go off the market after having been on for 6 months and then come back on higher, in fact.

What might be going on? I think partly it is a lack of good info for people regarding what homes are actually SELLING for, for one. And also I believe that there’s been an influx of investment that has decimated neighbourhoods – people buying anything that is “walking distance to SLC or Queens” and renting them out by the room. That practice killed my favorite part of town, forcing me out due to the noise and congestion in what was once a quiet, forgotten corner of Kingston.

People desperate to get in to the landlord game are driving prices up for both tenants and potential buyers. Meanwhile, all kinds of properties sit vacant- landlords waiting for the illusive non smoking, non pet owning, green thumbed snow shoveling professional couple who have 2000 a month in their housing budget and sellers thinking that electric radiant ceiling heat isn’t a reason to cut their asking price.

It has been a frustrating experience finding a place to live and it isn’t over yet. If I thought it was any better anywhere else believe me, I’d move there.

#42 Vangrrl on 02.25.14 at 10:35 pm

#22 Jan:
You and your friends of that mindset are ignorant, then. Own if it’s reasonable and you plan to stay somewhere long-term, sure. Renting is not ‘paying someone else’s mortgage, it’s paying someone (prob temporarily, even if that means up to 10 yrs or so) to provide you shelter, heat, laundry, a yard, etc. I live in Vancouver, so renting just makes sense. Reading today’s post about the cost of houses in London, Ont is a totally diff story. Under 300k for a SFH- doable. If you havea good job and want to stay in London long term, that makes sense. I went to uni in London- it’s a nice city.

#43 Linda Mulligan on 02.25.14 at 10:39 pm

Re: rise in household incomes – I believe the ‘increase’ is due to the increase in assessed property values. The USA had the same thing happening prior to the 2008 meltdown. Lots of home owners were using their home equity like an ATM – as their assessed value went up they could & usually did borrow the additional value. I don’t know how easily we can do that here but presume it can be done so if house prices do drop across the board then household incomes will likely drop in tandem.

#44 Mike Leblond on 02.25.14 at 10:42 pm

You didn’t mention Ottawa-Gatineau, so here are the facts. The burbs, both on the Ottawa side and the Gatineau side, are dead. Little is moving. Most houses currently listed have been on the market for at least one year, some two, others three and some now as much as four years. Have asking prices for these houses gone up over the past 3/4 years? No. Down? Yes, a little in some cases, a lot in others. There are few buyers left out there, and if you have been trying to sell your house for three years without success, you must be hurting…. the worse is yet to come because the Ottawa-Gatineau economy is going in only one direction and it ain’t up.

#45 I'm stupid on 02.25.14 at 10:46 pm

#40 4am sunrise

My point is that school curriculums should have a focus on life skills.

#46 MortgageGuy -everybody's fixed at 3% or variable 2.5% on 02.25.14 at 10:47 pm

let’s talk again about rates in 5 years, until then it’s futile -read waste of time

everybody’s fixed at 3% or variable 2.5% (or less)

#47 45north on 02.25.14 at 10:56 pm

CatFoodLady talking about Kingston Ontario

19% drop in sales is NOT simply weather.

well the weather sure isn’t helping. In the US as sales collapsed, people blamed the weather, the holidays, anything. It gradually sunk in that real estate was not coming back. Kingston is going to feel the down turn before Toronto and before Ottawa.

#48 cd on 02.25.14 at 11:01 pm

oh garth…

“Take the biggest urban area east of Montreal, for example”… its Quebec City not Halifax

Meant east of Quebec. Now fixed. — Garth

#49 Joe on 02.25.14 at 11:03 pm

You mentioned Regina, and yes prices and sales are stagnant and declining here.

What you did not mention is that despite that, renting is way too high for what it should be here, making buying still the better option. A house as an asset would have to decline pretty significantly here for it to be a worse choice than renting.

Right now I have a good deal renting a 1050 sqft new, very cheaply constructed 3-bed bungalow condo for $1600. Based on units for sale (assuming they get 90 – 95% of asking) in same complex right now, it would go for about $330K, condo fees $138 per month.

I’m in the process of buying a new nearly finished single detached 1250 sqft bungalow for roughly 455K with everything upgraded. Based on comparing kijiji listings, it would probably rent for $2500 – 3000. There is no way renting makes more financial sense unless you know you are moving within a few years.

Math isn’t your big thing, is it? — Garth

#50 Chickenlittle on 02.25.14 at 11:04 pm

Just like in an election, the GTA and Quebec set the tone.
Same goes for RE apparently.

#51 wallflower on 02.25.14 at 11:06 pm

I drop in for the laughs…. OMG
#7
followed by
#8
…………… hilarious!!!!!

#52 For sale Signs are up everywhere on 02.25.14 at 11:06 pm

Don’t worry we’re in good hands

#53 Waterloo Resident on 02.25.14 at 11:12 pm

One thing I don’t understand about Bitcoin is the price being quoted. I used to follow this site and it quoted a price of $175 for Bitcoin ( http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv )

Meanwhile, this site and a few other sites used to quote Bitcoin at around $150 a few days ago, but now they quote a price of around $550 ( http://bitcointicker.co/ )

So I’m stumped. That chart from the above site showed Bitcoin down to $120 a few days ago, but now all of that has been erased as if it never happened. Just like that Bitcoin exchange has disappeared as if it never existed. My take from all of this is that all Bitcoins could simply just VANISH as if they never existed, and similarly all of those capital gains people have on their houses could vanish almost as fast when a real estate collapse finally does come and they wait 2 or 3 years or more and find that there is no one out there to buy their over priced McMansion. Frankly though, I wonder if that will ever happen in Toronto, there it seems as if prices are rising to the sky with no stopping.

Oh yes, one more thing: Prices for stocks are reaching a high point, it might be time to take profits (sell) in the next few days. Tomorrow might be the trigger day.

#54 Tiger on 02.25.14 at 11:16 pm

#35 smoking man!
Yup you have had a few !
Call your doctor, you need new meds !
Case closed you are truly a decivous person a great liar!
You like rob ford, in what way
What re are you talking about!
Did you get an inheritance !

#55 jd on 02.25.14 at 11:17 pm

Funny thing, if you replace “China” with “Canada” this article still makes sense (and “exports” with “oil exports”…):

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/26/business/international/as-rest-of-economy-weakens-chinese-exports-surge.html?hp&_r=0

#56 Smoking Man on 02.25.14 at 11:19 pm

Rust Cole drives a small pick up, roll down windows, smokes a lot, drinks a lot. Thinks on his feet.

Far from any road… A handsome family sings…

And in season 2 a town called Searchlight Nevada will be featured.. And a new character introduced.. A smoking man perhaps.

True detective, Sundays at 9 pm on HBO….. Addictive….

Oh and a future cult classic film Flipped, will premier in March in NJ and LA.

#57 Chickenlittle on 02.25.14 at 11:21 pm

#120 Dedalumis yesterday:

“We are told our best years are behind us at 30 or 35 tops, try looking at life through woman-lenses once in awhile. We live our lives on fast forward compared to men and sometimes just can’t wait.”

Oh jeez, I sure hope not! I’ll be 35 soon so if you see a small woman crying in a few weeks then you’ll know it’s me!
I don’t feel like my best years are behind me. I’m having a great time right now! I wouldn’t be 21 again for all the tea in China.

Besides, cougars are in…

#58 Tiger on 02.25.14 at 11:23 pm

#46 MortgageGuy -everybody’s fixed at 3% or variable 2.5% on 02.25.14 at 10:47 pm
Yup you are dun, and stupid , drink much, you will soon!

#59 Tiger on 02.25.14 at 11:27 pm

46 # you sound like some one that was my freind!
I don’t hang with stupid people, any more!

#60 Van Isle Renter on 02.25.14 at 11:28 pm

#11 Ford Prefect on 02.25.14 at 9:27 pm
Good to see discussion of real estate markets other than Vancouver etc. Interesting ad today on CL in Comox Valley:

“have several properties, willing to carry mortgage for a time. 1 in Roysten, 5 in courtenay

250 792 0824″ .

That is entire ad. Sounds like desperation to sell but I am not sure.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Actually REEKS of desperation is more like it. Nobody backstops mortgages unless they have to.

#61 Observation Post: GTA on 02.25.14 at 11:30 pm

For those who do manage to sell with downsizing in mind, this blog post talks about dealing with the complicated emotions surrounding our “stuff” – and suggests ways to work through them and get rid of it!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rachel-adelson/downsizing-unclutter-your-feelings-first_b_4827888.html

#62 RockStar on 02.25.14 at 11:34 pm

#19 Sorry I didn’t complete the sentence:

Canadians as a whole, have $9.4T in assets. Only a third of Canadian assets, or $3T, is represented by their home.

The total dollar value of mortgages is even smaller, at $1T. Canadians are getting richer.

This means that the median home is 66% paid off and that Canadian homeowners have over $6T in assets above and beyond their own homes. The only problems Canadians have are First World Problems.

#63 buh-by_MtGox on 02.25.14 at 11:37 pm

In a bit of internet irony, some websites with MtGox stories also have a link to a story about the couple who found $10 million in gold coins on their property.

LOL

#64 4 AM Sunrise on 02.25.14 at 11:42 pm

#45 I’m stupid on 02.25.14 at 10:46 pm

Well, I guess BC tries to teach “life skills” with a course called “Planning” in grade 10:

http://www.sides.ca/en/courseguide/description/18/86.html

They talk about vehicle payments, but not mortgage payments.

#65 Smoking Man on 02.25.14 at 11:46 pm

#54 Tiger on 02.25.14 at 11:16 pmYup you have had a few !
Call your doctor, you need new meds !
Case closed you are truly a decivous person a great liar!
You like rob ford, in what way
What re are you talking about!
Did you get an inheritance !
………

I actually did get an inheritance, wasn’t much, dad was a war damaged vet.

Made most of my loot made by lying to the schooled, they don’t think anyone lies, candy from baby’s..

#66 g2thaBLA on 02.25.14 at 11:46 pm

I’m guessing these numbers will change when housing takes a hit… http://business.financialpost.com/2014/02/25/canada-middle-class-statscan-net-worth/

#67 Andrew Woburn on 02.25.14 at 11:48 pm

Flight of the HAMster?

“More Communist Party officials expected to flee abroad”

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1434408/more-communist-party-officials-expected-flee-abroad?

Quote –

“The phenomenon of the flight of officials is likely to escalate, particularly under the current anti-graft wave,” said Lu Yanbin, a researcher at the academy’s Institute of Law and the co-author of the yearbook. “Corrupt cadres are running out of places to live in this country.”

The anti-corruption chief Wang Qishan promised in January that the Communist Party would increase efforts to punish officials who flee overseas. Some 1,631 fugitives – government officials or people working for state enterprises – were arrested in 2011, according to official figures.

#68 Spectacle on 02.25.14 at 11:48 pm

Thank you Garth.

Re: “#25 Assquach on 02.25.14 at 9:57 pm
Listening to the radio every weekend, I always hear ads for investing in fancy coloured diamonds, as well as gold and silver. Garth, what are your thoughts on the future value of fancy coloured diamonds?”

Reply: fancy coloured Diamonds, or correctly described as “Investment Quality” Diamonds are a different beast, with a different investment strategy. Rareinvestment.com is the source if you wish to research etc. lots of fun, like rare antiques, or true rare cars. Check out the prices of a 1973 porsche 911, prepare for a next level education! Fun stuff .

But, it’s a different level of investing altogether, and nothing to do with gold/silver really.

Bitcoin = bit-tulip….

Regards all

#69 ??? on 02.25.14 at 11:51 pm

57 Chickenlittle on 02.25.14 at 11:21 pm
#120 Dedalumis yesterday:

“We are told our best years are behind us at 30 or 35 tops, try looking at life through woman-lenses once in awhile. We live our lives on fast forward compared to men and sometimes just can’t wait.”

Oh jeez, I sure hope not! I’ll be 35 soon so if you see a small woman crying in a few weeks then you’ll know it’s me!
I don’t feel like my best years are behind me. I’m having a great time right now! I wouldn’t be 21 again for all the tea in China.

Besides, cougars are in…
Yeah but only in sickville….lol

#70 Smoking Man on 02.25.14 at 11:53 pm

Tiger reading your shtick, you got my alpha male lessons wrong little grasshopper, almost every post you attack…

No one’s going to like you, time for alpha. And time for contributions.

You missed the second part.

Anytime you pick up shit to though it at someone. Some times you hit your nemesis, sometimes you miss.

But you always end up smelling like shit.

Carry on…

#71 Mark on 02.25.14 at 11:59 pm

Wow, looks like RBC is on the ball. Thank goodness we have reputable big banks with analysts so astute that they’re able to deduce the logical outcome of this mess years before anybody else has been warning of an overvalued market. And thank goodness we also have reputable news outlets with reporters who make it their duty to understand the topic they are reporting on, let alone read the reports they are basing their stories on, in order to ensure that they are giving their viewers balanced, unbiased facts upon which to base their potential life-changing financial decisions. Now if only some credible international economists, the Bank of Canada, IMF, or other big banks like TD would start warning of the same thing, maybe we might then have cause to start thinking that perhaps real estate in at least some parts of this fine country may be approaching levels that may at some point start being considered as potentially a little overvalued in a few decades if current trends continue.

Sometimes, I’m so gosh-darned proud of this country that I can barely contain myself!

#72 Tiger on 02.26.14 at 12:02 am

#65 smoking man!
I don’t lie , guess what !
I still like you,but call bullshit enough said!
Best to you!

#73 Enrique III on 02.26.14 at 12:04 am

Hi Garth,

Do you think it is reasonable to hold gold as part of a diversified portfolio? I think when I first started reading your blog you had said it was OK to have a % of gold but then revised that to zero when the price became bubbly. Can I succumb to my gold bug urges now and take a small position?

#74 BCD on 02.26.14 at 12:07 am

365m worth of bitcoins go “poof”?! I’d LoL but there are probably people who will take their lives over this.

More proof that when you don’t control your money it’s not really yours. At least no one can pull a Bernie Madoff on your residence or your GIC…when the price goes “poof” you can still live in the house and cash your GIC.

You can’t live in a Bitcoin account…and by the sounds of it you couldn’t even cash out at MT. Gox for quite some time.

#75 Obvious Truth on 02.26.14 at 12:08 am

BMO outlook for investors – ‘residential construction should slow modestly. Consequently, growth in consumer credit and residential mortgages will CONTINUE to moderate.’

Seems at odds with this boom I’m hearing about at the Reagle beagle. It’s like a threes company episode. Jack is hiding something and Chrissy thinks she knows what it is.

#76 Infused with Opiates on 02.26.14 at 12:17 am

43 Linda – borrowed money is not income. You pay it back with income.

#77 Jon on 02.26.14 at 12:18 am

#17 one thing about current gold is the price to mine many cant afford to mine now below 1200 to stay profitable if you are into any gold stocks make sure you understand at what price they are profitable. Many juniors could start to make money when the price skyrocketed but many are teetering at current price. As far as where pride will go i wont speculate but make sure you do your DD if you plan on buying any junior outfit. Many are crapping there pants being on the brink of profitabilty.

#78 Infused with Opiates on 02.26.14 at 12:23 am

43 Linda – sorry, of course the borrowed money becomes someone else’s income. A lot of people made money via the wealth effect.

#79 Ontario's Left Coast on 02.26.14 at 12:25 am

30 Re #17 Gold Spew – You gold “investors” buy but never sell. Consequently you make zero on your investments.

Funny, I must have dreamed up those 25 – 50 per cent profits I realized on TGZ, EDV and TMM since early January. Hottest short-term sector on the TSX so far this year, my friend – but feel free to go on if you must.

#80 Joseph R. on 02.26.14 at 12:34 am

Don’t fight the bond market, join it!

http://www.barchart.com/quotes/futures/ZRR.TO

#81 Cici on 02.26.14 at 12:41 am

Garth, don’t let the leg get you down! Enjoy your meds and all the TLC comin’ your way from Dorothy and the Amazon caregivers. But good of you to have declined the interview anyways…

On another note, I’m in awe with your show of restraint regarding the highly mediatized bitcoin affair. I thought for sure you would have a hey-day with that one, and I was eagerly awaiting the deliciously nasty blasts. I guess you’re saving all your energy to help out the haplessly house horny :-)

#82 Ben on 02.26.14 at 12:45 am

Garth great to see you looking to Montreal. Why not do some more articles and stats on us, as you note it’s where the action is starting…

#83 cornstars on 02.26.14 at 12:54 am

Are you guys, all drunk?

#84 Cici on 02.26.14 at 12:59 am

#66 G2thaBLA

Uh huh…those numbers and claims look pretty far-fetched. And they contradict another government report: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/02/23/conservative_report_calls_middleclass_dreams_a_myth.html

#85 Cici on 02.26.14 at 1:06 am

#62 Rockstar

The only problem is that that one report contradicts almost every other one out there, including this one here: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/02/23/conservative_report_calls_middleclass_dreams_a_myth.html

Oh yeah, and the data doesn’t seem to add up at all.

#86 Mithan on 02.26.14 at 1:13 am

I think Regina is starting to slow down personally, though nobody will admit it. There have been zero announcement for big “job projects” in the last few years that actually equate to something other than construction. Sorry, but building Hotels, a Stadium and a Water Treatment Plant doesn’t equate to long term wealth though I know plenty of people think it will.

If you go to the new areas in the city, they are loaded with pre-fabbed homes, townhouses and condos, most of them are empty and have for sale signs out front. You can even spot a lot of Condos/Townhouses on Kajiji now going for $1200-1350 a month, which makes me wonder how the owner is making any money. These same things seemed to average $1600-1800 a couple years ago.

I had a few friends who purchased a few condo’s in the $250k range a few years ago to “rent out and make money”. Initially they were charging $1600-1800 a month rent, which meant that every 3 or 4 months they were looking for a new renter and losing money due to vacancy. I kept telling them to go cheaper, to retain their renter. One empty month was equivalent to a $150 a month loss for the year, so you were better off going cheaper and retaining…. I know now they are renting for a lot less, probably $1400-1500 knowing them.

I think what has happened in Regina is that the initial hype of 2006-2009 which ran our bull market and got a LOT of people thinking debt wasn’t a big deal, into building new homes, thus causing a huge demand for Trade Workers, is starting to petter out. New Home Building is down from last year, which is down from 2012. I think this trend will snowball quite a bit. Less homes = less people building homes = less people renting = cheaper rents/less rental market pressure = etc, etc, etc. In other words, we will see a worker exodus.

There are already plenty of imported people who find themselves not having full time work, which makes me wonder why the hell the Government is going to Ireland to bring in more people, but whatever.

The rental market which was around 1% or less vacancy for almost 5 years running has gone up quite a bit. I don’t recall the latest figure, but I think it is now over 3%.

The average Family Income in Regina is about $70k a year, but the average price is about $350k or something now. I can’t get a solid read on the average home prices because they skew the numbers so badly. Average personal income is about $45k or so.

Pretty much everybody I know complains about how expensive everything is. Too many dumbasses in their 20’s seem to think borrowing a couple hundred grand to buy a condo or some crap house that needs another $50-100k in repairs, is no big deal.

I don’t know what to expect in the future. If prices corrected 20-30%, it wouldn’t surprise me though, but who knows.

I suspect Regina and most of Saskatchewan will probably enter a bust phase in a few years though. Its only history.

#87 James on 02.26.14 at 2:07 am

Dude, 3 things:

– lock in 10 year fix at still historic low
– Who cares about other cities. SFH in Toronto all the way
– Toronto is rich.

#88 Freedom First on 02.26.14 at 2:14 am

Enjoyed the post today Garth, thank you, and I hope the bones in your ankle/leg are healing well. That was a hard one you just went through. Well done! For no matter how you went through it, you made it, and many people don’t. I know that. I’ve seen both. Don’t take shit from anyone Garth. I need the odd reminder myself:)

Your post reminded me today about an interest rate fact, that many people either haven’t seen, or are unaware of. When “Interest Rates” begin to go up, they go up much faster than they come down. No exception. This has happened recently in some countries, and throughout history. Including Canada.

#89 DocInWaitingRoom on 02.26.14 at 2:26 am

Gotta love Stats Canada they really are accurate and timely with all things including Canadian assets and inflation. Got to love how pensions ans salaries with the exception of government workers and politicians are not even in line with reality.

One sided article from Financial Post. It shows only what they want to convey. Debt per quintile and percent asset allocation from quintile was also missing in action. The highest quintile ie richest dudes 1% ers can have 90%+ in equities while the rest have 90% in homes.

Clearly loc debt and cc debt is over 1.69 times earnings, and mortgage debt likely much higher. Where is that graph?

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/02/25/canada-middle-class-statscan-net-worth/

#90 Happy Renting on 02.26.14 at 2:47 am

“Ontario? It ain’t just Toronto.”

What? Not true, we are the Centre of the Universe!

;-)

Love your conversation with the reporter. I hope it went EXACTLY like that!

#91 Happy Renting on 02.26.14 at 3:00 am

#16 Rcd on 02.25.14 at 9:33 pm
In toronto in particular it would good to know for those people chasing these $750,000 to $1,000,000 homes with bidding wars and no conditions how much equity they are putting down vs mortgage financing. Are most putting down only 20%?
=====================================

“Only 20%”? That’s $150-200k in the $750k-1M house range. I would be surprised if most don’t have a down payment that large and are paying the CMHC insurance.

#92 devore on 02.26.14 at 3:14 am

#10 Spiltbongwater

Mt. Gox just Madoffed with all the investors money.

Mt. Gox? You mean MtGOx, a site formerly acting as MtG (that is Magic the Gathering) online card exchange. It’s totally a place I would put thousands of dollars of my money for safekeeping.

#93 devore on 02.26.14 at 3:22 am

#17 gmcccc

today listed price is $1340, but if you actually want to buy the physical, it is $1500/oz

Or you could just walk into VBCE and buy as much as you want for spot.

If you’re paying $1500, you’re getting ripped off.

#94 Happy Renting on 02.26.14 at 3:25 am

#120 Detalumis on 02.25.14 at 8:27 am

“We are told our best years are behind us at 30 or 35 tops, try looking at life through woman-lenses once in awhile.”

Would the irrational house horniness go away if women didn’t believe everything they were told?

#95 Fortune500 on 02.26.14 at 3:52 am

Interesting how little changed the 35 and below group is in regards to median net worth.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/140225/t140225b001-eng.htm

Could it be that most were not in a position to ride the real estate wave post 2005?

#96 juno on 02.26.14 at 5:08 am

#28 takla on 02.25.14 at 10:04 pm

re#11…..funny ,I was running an add looking for a free hold property with serviced cabin in a rural S.E B.C rural location and an owner of multiple properties contacted me.HE Was sounding increasingly desperate to unload one at the still elevated prices on a for sale by owner deal.I felt somewhat sorry for the dude when he mentioned he had 8 properties for me to choose from….
=============

And now we know who’s buying up all the houses.
GREEDY CANADIAN.

I don’t feel sorry for the guy. He leverage up, bought on margin. Margin call is right around the corner

#97 Detalumis on 02.26.14 at 7:50 am

#57 Chickenlittle, what you feel or don’t feel ain’t the point. At 35 if you are pregnant they will check off the box “geriatric” beside your name to indicate high risk. Most men are just getting married for the first time around that age. You won’t find a single 35+ year old female celebrity who isn’t on the botox and facial filler and Patti Stranger will tell you it’s hard for you to get a date with “her millionaires”.

Young girls don’t want to grow up to be Condoleezza Rice or Gina Rinehart. Intelligence or wealth or both don’t give women any status, we are judged solely on our physical attractiveness.

Women have been fed a line, it’s just a marketing ploy to get you to buy the anti-aging products, really biology has not changed in hundreds of years.

#98 Deb on 02.26.14 at 8:11 am

The late Tip O’Neill used to say “All politics is local.” Residential real estate applies within the same context.

#99 trackpants on 02.26.14 at 8:42 am

Military guy across the street from me here won’t stop boasting every chance he gets “this street, these houses won’t stop going up in price”
I rent a two bedroom across from him here in Little Italy Ottawa.
“you should make an offer to your landlord…but he won’t sell..hahaa..he knows he is sitting on a gold mine”

I just stare at him. He knows I owned a house before and where. He knows what I do for a living.

I lob back “3 years renting now..yep..when I put my deposits together for RSP/TFS I was shocked at how much I had to put in”
I don’t pull punches.
He nods as if to say..f8K you
He knows I pay Less than 975 a month plus hydro.

He knows my landlord has to put a new roof on. 5k for the repair bill. The house is old.

I win. I win every single month. REITs with .03 and .09 dividends rolling in.

I don’t have a mortgage. I’m not tied down to moving every 6 years and worrying about transfer fees and “immediate repairs/upgrades”

I move again..big deal. Maybe I don’t. LL doesn’t care to raise the rent in the 3 years I have been here.

Trackpants

#100 Ivan the Variable on 02.26.14 at 8:57 am

19 offers in markham
32 offers in leslieville
quarter million over list for leaside tear down
100-150 overlist for starter houses

frothy or freakshow?

#101 TurnerNation on 02.26.14 at 9:19 am

Contrast in headlines this morning.

– Royal Bank raises dividend 6%, 1st-quarter profit up 2% CBC.ca

– Mt. Gox head says in Japan, seeking solution to bitcoin exchange’s woe

(What’s in your wallet?)

#102 NoName on 02.26.14 at 9:19 am

Interesring read, guy who wrote algo to trade his money, robot trades “Invests” in sector etf rebalance daily… According to a blog post so far so god.
http://blog.quantopian.com/real-money/

Maybe is this non-dislekcticks part of smoking man. Or maybe smoking man is just colege teacher…

#103 fixie guy on 02.26.14 at 9:22 am

“So in many ways the endless discussion about whether properties ….will rise forever, is a waste of time.”

One way it’s not a waste of time is mathematical possibility. Inflation adjusted, it’s impossible. The discussion is well past the point that those who still can’t parse the distinction between nominal and real should be left to their own fate.

#104 Tom from Mississauga on 02.26.14 at 9:36 am

http://www.crackshackormansion.com/part2.html

Not sure if your readers got part 2 or not. It was on Bloomberg this morning.

#105 Ottawa on 02.26.14 at 10:08 am

Good Morning Garth,
could you give us a snapshot of the Ottawa single homes market. We are first time buyers looking for a 4 bedroom detached home(new) but waiting for more reasonable price levels. I cannot find any current inventory information or market report for Ottawa.
Thank you,
IK

#106 Kris on 02.26.14 at 10:08 am

Nouriel Roubini, noted economist from the US, says Canada’s housing is over-valued but doesn’t see any big drop, at least not to the tune of 20%. He says only a 5%-10% correction is possible, based on many factors which make Canada different from US.

This is the same guy known as Dr. Doom.. Expected a far more dire warning from him, but he basically ends up endorsing the strength of the Cdn economy and housing markets..!

http://video.ca.msn.com/watch/video/expecting-a-housing-bust/16ax4n8jc?from=en-ca-quad&cpkey=6a32d6b7-a0fe-480a-9a72-2f2c8d93bd2d%257c%257c%257c%257c

#107 shibboleth on 02.26.14 at 10:27 am

Yes, reasonably-priced real estate opportunities are attracting big-city retirees, who wish to enjoy the slower paces along the north shore of Lake Erie while living within short-drive proximity to towns and all amenities. Jumbo’s St. Thomas is one of those friendly towns:
http://www.st-thomas.library.on.ca/?q=content/life-jumbo-elephant
Example: 10 mins south of St. Thomas, is “CALIPSO” – acronym for “come and live in port stanley ontario”:
http://www.port-stanley.com/
There’s few finer times spent than a leisurely drive along the Lake Erie portion of the Waterfront Trail to there:
http://www.waterfronttrail.org/
BUT, can I suggest you wait until May ..

#108 DM in C on 02.26.14 at 10:31 am

Enough with the ‘irrational house horniness’ bashing of women. Guys want houses just as much — so project their feelings onto women to justify a purchase. Transparently too.

We’ve both rented AND owned. When it makes sense. Misogyny just deflects blame.

#109 Daisy Mae on 02.26.14 at 10:49 am

Tenth paragraph: “It’s also worth nothing January of last year…”

********************

It’s also worth ‘noting’….?

#110 gladiator on 02.26.14 at 10:50 am

Speaking of 66% of Canadian houses being paid off: RE is a marginal market and the perceived “prices” of 20 houses in a neighborhood will depend on the sale of just one. The lower the price of one forced sale, the lower the values of the other 19. A little melt at the edges, and the whole thing goes down. With home ownership at record highs and with so many over-stretched “home-owners”, the probability of this melt-at-the-edges has never been higher.

Speaking of “look at the bond market” shtick: I work in bond markets and the yield curve has been slowly but surely flattening in the last few months. A flattening of the yield curve is a recession predecessor. Investors flight to safety and buy the longer-term bonds to preserve their money, which lowers their yields, hence the flattening. We on this blog write about tough times coming, and there are nay-sayers who claim this is BS, but the market and the economy sent us so many signals of bad times coming that it is naive to ignore them: stagnant incomes, layoffs, record debt and home ownership, yield curve flattening, etc. The bad part is – we don’t know which assets or markets will be hit the hardest. The good thing is – we don’t have to know it. Just have a balanced portfolio and ride this downturn. If you have a house that’s a reasonable part of your assets – keep it. But if you bought it in the last couple of years and are up to your eyeballs in debt – you have been warned.

I played devil’s advocate here before. Even now I have doubts that housing will go down. But common sense is telling me to refrain from buying a house. The more this madness goes on – the more painful the withdrawal will be. I see pain on the horizon, and lots of it.

#111 monkeyevolved on 02.26.14 at 10:53 am

Garth,

You need to address this “Survey of Financial Security, 2012” dude. We need to hear your opinion because it doesn’t make any sense. Is it pure propaganda? Is Statistics Canada lying to us?

According to this release about 20% of Canadian households are pretty much almost millionaires after everything is sold and everything is paid for.

According to this release, most Canadian households don’t have mortgages and those that do have less than half the amount outstanding.

Not a day goes by where I don’t see some new mom wearing sunglasses that cover her head pull out of a luxury SUV in a Canada goose jacket at Starbucks looking like she just partied with George Clooney yet the median auto loans are $15,000? Median credit card debt $3,000 for less than 40% of the population that has credit card debt.

Lines of credit – only 24% and $15,000?

And what the hell is “other non-financial assets?” Is that like…unused elliptical trainers gathering dust in the basement?

According to this survey us Canadians are doing quite well, getting wealthier. Most of us don’t have bad debts. Or mortgages. Or car loans. Or major credit card debt. I read income has stagnated since the seventies. Personal debt hits new records each year. We are mortgaging ourselves with zero down and 85 year loans. But this survey…

…this survey says we are all dancing with fairies in Narnia with a problem in the world. Opinion?

#112 Ray Skunk on 02.26.14 at 10:55 am

#95
Interesting how little changed the 35 and below group is in regards to median net worth.
———————————–

That demographic will always be low.

Let’s not forget that this segment goes all the way down to the tender age of 18 – where kids typically have zero net worth. By 22-23, the average young adult will be graduating with somewhere around an average $50k of student debt. Zero net worth will likely come back on the scene in the mid-late twenties when that debt is paid, and above 30 is where we’re seeing that median ($25k, for those who didn’t click) for the group dragged up.

I’m in that group myself, and I sort-of rode the RE wave post 2005 by buying a condo in 2007. Only took $12k + closing costs to get in on the action. A low barrier of entry for sure, but still pretty high for me; as an immigrant with no family in the country, I had to save and couldn’t tap up the crusties (with the aid of the ever pumping MSM) for my downpayment like many others in my group can and do.

Now liquid, very happily renting, and many multiples of that median net worth, thankfully.

#113 Daisy Mae on 02.26.14 at 10:58 am

#14 Victor V: “15 Ridgewood Road – FOREST HILL

http://themashcanada.blogspot.ca/2014/02/and-it-went-for-15-ridgewood-road.html

****************

Ugly. NINE bathrooms?

#114 Carl on 02.26.14 at 11:00 am

It’s starting to decline in Toronto. Houses are starting to sit. Look at Riverdale or Leslieville. Nothing is selling, and when it does, it 20% below asking. Spring is going to be nasty.

#115 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 02.26.14 at 11:08 am

http://terriblerealestateagentphotos.com

#116 Penny Henny on 02.26.14 at 11:19 am

Have you seen my bitcoin?

#117 DR on 02.26.14 at 11:19 am

#114 Carl on 02.26.14 at 11:00 am
It’s starting to decline in Toronto. Houses are starting to sit. Look at Riverdale or Leslieville. Nothing is selling, and when it does, it 20% below asking. Spring is going to be nasty.

huh, nothing is selling…or nothing good is available>>??

#118 Happy Renting on 02.26.14 at 11:32 am

#113 Daisy Mae on 02.26.14 at 10:58 am
NINE bathrooms?

==================================

I don’t really get the trend I see of houses having many more bathrooms than bedrooms. Are they assuming every bedroom will have more than one occupant, and everyone will want to pee at the exact same time?

#119 bill on 02.26.14 at 11:35 am

its the new dance craze that’s sweeping the ocean….

#120 blase on 02.26.14 at 11:37 am

It seems to me that the price limit for bidding wars in Toronto is $1 million. Why is that? Because CMHC insurance is capped at that amount.

So…everyone can rearrange their deck chairs fighting over crap in the T.O. boonies, but soon there will be 19 realtors in a car all submitting sealed bids of $999,999.

Not much head room left. Have fun late Winter and early Spring bidders.

#121 bill on 02.26.14 at 11:39 am

#93 devore on 02.26.14 at 3:22 am
thats Vancouver Bullion and Currency Exchange for the uninitiated.

#122 Happy Renting on 02.26.14 at 11:46 am

#120 blase on 02.26.14 at 11:37 am

Due to the CMHC limit there must be a pocket of comparative value somewhere just north of the $1M price range (if you have the 20% down.) $1.1? $1.2? (Purely academic in my case, that size of mortgage would keep me chained to my job until the end of time…)

#123 Paul on 02.26.14 at 11:51 am

#120 blase on 02.26.14 at 11:37 am

It seems to me that the price limit for bidding wars in Toronto is $1 million. Why is that? Because CMHC insurance is capped at that amount.

So…everyone can rearrange their deck chairs fighting over crap in the T.O. boonies, but soon there will be 19 realtors in a car all submitting sealed bids of $999,999.

Not much head room left. Have fun late Winter and early Spring bidders.
———————————————————-You don’t get it even with C.M.H.C. The properties need to appraise out to get financing a lot of the over bids are cash or they put 30-50 percent down so no C.M.H.C. involvement.I have sold properties to a lot of new Canadians they come with $100,000 or more deposits with the offer. Where this will end who knows but it will be messy!

#124 Aggregator on 02.26.14 at 11:52 am

#67 Andrew Woburn

More Communist Party officials expected to flee abroad

Correct. Which is exactly why i) Canada terminated the IIP as CIC must have noticed POC officials bribing their way to the top of the application pile ii) 1Y SHIBOR rates are rising (cash crunch) and iii) Baidu's traffic for "real estate" just went through the roof.

You can expect a lot more bidding wars this spring as corrupt dirty money tries to find a new Canadian home.

#125 Sem Antics on 02.26.14 at 12:09 pm

You want out there?
I Just paid a Toronto Hydro bill for $46.17
The actual electric use was under one dollar.
(You know debt retirement, delivery, the usual.)
But the HST was $5.90
Can you believe it? The feds and the province get 5 times more money that the cost of the metered hydro used. These extra charges are not ‘goods’ and they are not ‘services’. I sent the bill to my MP and MPP. But I’m sure they will both explain to me that I ‘just don’t understand’. But I do. When they brought in Goods and Services Tax the most obvious exclusion was financial services, you know, bank ‘service fees’, but the lie was that charging GST on banking services would be ‘too complex’ and the banks couldn’t do it. But the GST came in around the same time as all these ‘service fees’ at the banks- they public would not tolerate both. I’ve heard suggestions the these fees should be HSTd. IMO the service fees are a tax equivalent, because they have no bearing on the actual cost of delivering anything. Basically the Government and the Banks got together (insert your own joke here) and said ‘you take the left pocket, we take the right one’

Only simpletons could believe that collecting government tax was too complex for banks. They invented and re-defined complexity.

#126 jess on 02.26.14 at 12:11 pm

cheating epidemic high tech style

http://www.cbc.ca/doczone/episodes//faking-the-grade

#127 Ray Skunk on 02.26.14 at 12:13 pm

So…everyone can rearrange their deck chairs fighting over crap in the T.O. boonies, but soon there will be 19 realtors in a car all submitting sealed bids of $999,999.
—————————————–

Great point. All will be submitting the same dollar offer. All will have no conditions.

What will be the differentiator?

24 of seller’s favourite beer thrown in?
Bundle of cash?
Topless pictures of buyer’s wife?

#128 James on 02.26.14 at 12:24 pm

#114 Carl

That is funny. In your dreams maybe?

#129 BCD (D for Delusional) on 02.26.14 at 12:27 pm

Garth,

You need to address this “Survey of Financial Security, 2012″ dude. We need to hear your opinion because it doesn’t make any sense. Is it pure propaganda? Is Statistics Canada lying to us?

According to this survey us Canadians are doing quite well, getting wealthier. Most of us don’t have bad debts. Or mortgages. Or car loans. Or major credit card debt. I read income has stagnated since the seventies. Personal debt hits new records each year. We are mortgaging ourselves with zero down and 85 year loans. But this survey…

…this survey says we are all dancing with fairies in Narnia with a problem in the world. Opinion?
_______________________________________

Think about it. Most of the people who visit this blog fall into the financially responsible category. Why is it such a stretch to think that there aren’t others out there as well? Many people know how to live within their means—we are not an alien life form. To me that statistic looks grim. I am doing way better financially then that report would indicate.
It’s human nature to think you are better then everyone else, and when someone is seen to be doing well financially people gossip and attack their personal life. Years ago I did a research project on “gifted people”. As it turns out the stereotypes are all wrong. It isn’t the geeky little weaklings that are the most intelligent—it is the tall, beautiful physical specimens that are also the most intelligent. Translation: Some people really DO have it all.

#130 James on 02.26.14 at 12:27 pm

#106 Kris

Makes sense. High paying jobs in tech and finance and small business is driving the economy.

#131 TheCatFoodLady on 02.26.14 at 12:27 pm

#111 – Monkeyevolved: Okay, if most are almost millionaires AFTER they sell/cash out… who’s buying & what would their resulting balance sheet resemble?

#132 Oceanside on 02.26.14 at 12:39 pm

#11 Ford Prefect on 02.25.14 at 9:27 pm
Good to see discussion of real estate markets other than Vancouver etc. Interesting ad today on CL in Comox Valley:

“have several properties, willing to carry mortgage for a time. 1 in Roysten, 5 in courtenay

250 792 0824″ .

That is entire ad. Sounds like desperation to sell but I am not sure.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Actually REEKS of desperation is more like it. Nobody backstops mortgages unless they have to.
____________________________________________

If this vendor had his properties correctly priced they would sell. In Qualicum and Parksville areas there are so many homes for sale in the $600’s that if were priced closer to their assessed values (usually around $450K to 500K) they would sell. Many on the market for 2 years. Lots of these places were purchased 10 years ago in the high 2’s and low 3’s. Just pure greed would motivate someone to put up with the hassle of having a home listed for so long. This isn’t good for realtors or potential purchasers.

#133 Realtor # 1 GTA on 02.26.14 at 12:40 pm

I think all you doomers will enjoy this post (no really)

This spring might provide an interesting opportunity, because of the weather many listing are being postponed till mid March. I don’t know how many but it might sway the supply/demand.

Interest rates will not cause a correction. It will move slowly and customers will have a better variable rates to pick from.

#134 chickenlittle on 02.26.14 at 12:41 pm

#69 ???:

You must be over 40…that’s not what I see from the 25 and under crowd. Ask Janice Dickenson (lol).

Detalumis (sp?):

You are right about that. Women have been fed a line. Its terrible!! As long as you take care of yourself then everyone should just keep their beaks shut. Not everyone is a hot as Garth.

Got that right. — Garth

#135 pinstripe on 02.26.14 at 1:21 pm

WHO do you trust?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/campus-cheaters-hire-custom-essay-writers-to-avoid-detection-1.2551409

#136 Spectacle on 02.26.14 at 1:34 pm

2nd response today. Thanks Garth.

Re:
#73 Enrique III on 02.26.14 at 12:04 am.
Do you think it is reasonable to hold gold as part of a diversified portfolio?……….you had said it was OK to have a % of gold but then……Can I succumb to my gold bug urges now and take a small position?

Respectfully to EnriqueIII: if you’d like to succumb to your gold bug urges, (physical Gold/numismatics) it is one mature investor strategy, it can be a fun hobby.

BUT, It is Not diversity!! No. Nope, Nay-Nay!

By the nature of your inquiry, you are not an investor who should put any weight into “Gold” and it’s little friends…or big friends like investment Diamonds.

There is only one person for “gold” investors like yourself ( in BC ) to even begin to trust, that’s Gary Senior, owner of Vancouver Gold, 700 W Pender St #750, Vancouver, BC.

Gary Sr. will see that you are eager to learn/invest in gold. He will abruptly stop you from doing “stupid things” . Do not use any of the other copies in name or the business, you will be compromised, and your enthusiasm will be tarnished by them!

– Garth please feel free to edit my post of I’m not authorized to do a reference as above! –

If I am mistaken about your being investment savy, Gary can handle suitcases of numismatic /gold/silver , with an appointment. Warning: These old guys are crusty, no reference to Garth. They do Not intend to be rude or rough but it can sound like it as you absorb their advice.

EnriqueIII, please enjoy the ride, the learning experience, and it will be a lesson to extrapolate into many other areas of your financial life.

Trust /hope this helps you or others, regards.

#137 jess on 02.26.14 at 1:40 pm

..” RBC didn’t release details of the transaction with Sagicor, it announced it will book an estimated $60-million writedown related to its 2008 acquisition of one of the subsidiaries, RBTT Securities Jamaica

http://guardian.co.tt/business/2014-02-25/barbados-crisis-keeps-sagicor-downgraded
===================
From TheRealNews

Published on Dec 8, 2013

James Henry: Canadian companies use Barbados as a tax haven to reduce their taxes from 24 percent to 2.5 percent, leaving Barbados with revenue shortage

#138 Obvious Truth on 02.26.14 at 1:41 pm

RY. Same story. Less lending. Trying to build wealth management like all the others. Wonder why that’s not happening.

USA. Halftime on cnbc tells us banks now doing higher LTV and decreasing FICO requirements.

It’s Opposite Day.

#139 Old Man on 02.26.14 at 1:43 pm

This coming Spring will become a make or break situation in the Toronto real estate market as have yet to see any panic buying. Yes there are multiple offers in spots; a few crowds lusting over a dump; and even an auction sale on occasion; not to mention foreign buyers with lots of green.

The year was 1973 as got a phone call from a friend who was closing his office for a week; he was in the know with the street action. I had seen a bit on the news and business was moving fast, but the working public in general were ill informed. He said will bring lawn chairs at 7:30 AM; some breakfast; and by noon will score an easy $5,000 or more. I said where, and he said its happening everywhere, so we met at Bloor and Bathurst.

There were 50 people lined up at a real estate office waiting for it to open, and this went all day long. The buyers never looked at a property; bought off the listings; one or more properties with an agreement; and walking outside the crowds were bidding for an assignment of the paper like mad dogs.

The average mls home price in Toronto went from $34,114 in December 1972 to $55,517 in December 1974. The Ontario Government legislated speculation tax in April 1974 to kill the markets and the bidding wars. The markets crashed with untold thousands holding the bag at the end; knew one lawyer who held 50 properties, and in Richmond Hill a subdivision with hundreds of homes that were sold never closed.

#140 bguy1 on 02.26.14 at 1:51 pm

# 105 Ottawa

Try reviewing these videos about the Ottawa market. Gives you days on market, and inventory levels.

https://www.youtube.com/agentinottawa

#141 jess on 02.26.14 at 1:59 pm

By Gerard RyleFebruary 26, 2014, 11:45 am
On Wednesday Kevin Lau, the former chief editor of the Hong Kong newspaper Ming Pao, was stabbed three times by an unknown assailant. Lau is reportedly in critical condition. Ming Pao was one of ICIJ’s partners in the Offshore Leaks investigation, and ICIJ director Gerard Ryle made the following statement today in response to the attack.

The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) is horrified to learn of the brutal knife attack on Kevin Lau, the former Chief Editor of our Hong Kong media partner, the Ming Pao newspaper. Our thoughts and prayers are with Kevin and his family, and we remain hopeful that local police will apprehend the perpetrators as soon as possible. …
@icij

#142 ozy - when is that post on fractional reserve coming for everyone to understand prices in the long term? on 02.26.14 at 2:23 pm

when is that post on fractional reserve coming for everyone to understand prices in the long term…

yep, we stole appreciation from the future, so lots of owners are at risk and should sell

on the other hand, there’s still room for appreciation in certain very limited market segments…

send the message this way, aka, balanced not paranoid…so those who still rent with cockroaches, common laundry rooms and bed bug – see the TRUTH

#143 Blacksheep on 02.26.14 at 2:28 pm

#17 gmcccc

“today listed price is $1340, but if you actually want to buy the physical, it is $1500/oz”
————————————————–
You are correct, sort of:

When talking bullion, ‘spot’ is the current bid, in US $.
Your error seems to be coming from the mixing of the US / Can. currencies.

$1340 would have been current spot, priced in US $.

Your $1500 buy price represents, The current, $ 1478 spot, Can. plus dealer premium of $ 59 Can. = your current market / buy price of $ 1530 Can.

Border Gold in White Rock has a good site that allows you to toggle back and forth between US and Canadian
$ in both spot price and bullion price, separately.

http://www.bordergold.com/products.php#
————————————————-
devore # 92

“Or you could just walk into VBCE and buy as much as you want for spot.
If you’re paying $1500, you’re getting ripped off.”
————————————————–
You will almost always pay spot + premium from a dealer. The premium goes up or down depending on market direction, product available to the public, product availability at wholesale to the dealer and volume of said item held by the dealer.

Even with a $15 reduction in spot today, buy price from VBCE is currently $ 1516 Can.

#144 Camus on 02.26.14 at 2:29 pm

RE: #115 rosie “moving forward” in the knowledge that, “this won’t end well”

terriblerealestateagentphotos.com

Thank you so much for the link…. beyond classic!

#145 Maxime on 02.26.14 at 2:30 pm

“Active listings are up for the 41st month in a row, which means this is one giant buyer’s market.”

Does this means it’s time to buy in Montreal ? Or the price will drop more ?

#146 Vangrrl on 02.26.14 at 2:44 pm

#97 Detalumis:
You need to get some self-confidence going and take your mid-life angst elsewhere. It’s sad.

More to the point:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-ends-2013-with-highest-consumer-debt-in-canada-1.2552029

#147 airhead princess on 02.26.14 at 3:30 pm

Free housing in Spain…( you just need to kick the door in). Can this be the solution to the dark windows of areas in Canada where condo towers are entirely owned by HAM and other foreign buyers?

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/feb/23/spain-property-black-market-housing-madrid

Vancouvers homeless could be entirely housed in Coal Harbour where entire towers are owned by offshore HAM…….Ok sorry…there is no HAM….wink wink…we get it.

What if radical homeless groups begin to take the initiative of Spanish groups? How does one get rid of a squatter in Canada…..I can tell you that it isn’t a matter police are going to fix in a hurry.

#148 Smoking Man on 02.26.14 at 3:43 pm

#126 jess on 02.26.14 at 12:11 pm

cheating epidemic high tech style

http://www.cbc.ca/doczone/episodes//faking-the-grade
………………

Look forward to the show then hit them hard in the comments section.

There is a paradox in modern education….

Cheating is considered when someone failed to memorize an answer. And regurgitate on demand.

30 years ago, you needed to memorize, there was no Internet.

But if getting the right answer is what counts, give them Google, may the best key word searcher win.

But it’s not, it’s still a rip off business, they want you to buy out dated textbooks at ridiculous cost, which are redundant at end of term. Tuition up 40% in the last 4Years.

It’s a scam far worse that what Realtors do.

Son 3 learned to create apps for Android, video free of charge by University of Maryland. And one of those dumbes books.

Anyone who pays for knowledge today is an utter idiot.

#149 Old Man on 02.26.14 at 4:19 pm

#145 Maxime – keep your powder dry for a few years, as the massive listings accumulating will turn into a race to the bottom over time. Why buy now? Wait for the panic to establish itself when the herd smells blood trying to get out. Relax and watch the show!

#150 DR on 02.26.14 at 4:35 pm

http://www.thestar.com/business/personal_finance/2014/02/25/real_estate_making_us_richer.html

They should just stop printing this stuff.

#151 BCD (D for Disaster) on 02.26.14 at 4:39 pm

#72 Tiger on 02.26.14 at 12:02 am

#65 smoking man!
I don’t lie , guess what !
___________________________
I still like you,but call bullshit enough said!
Best to you!
_____________________________

+1 to this comment. BS is right. He’s constantly trying to spin a yarn without a loom.

#152 espressobob on 02.26.14 at 4:48 pm

#17 gmccc

#143 Blacksheep

I hate to be a thorn in your side but why would anyone buy physical gold? Sounds like dead money!

Obviously those who work in the ‘business’ are the only ones smiling. Gold is pretty much useless! Fear is a powerful emotion.

#153 april on 02.26.14 at 4:50 pm

#145 – For goodness sakes WAIT this is only the beginning. Don’t be fooled by realtor/media spin.

#154 DR on 02.26.14 at 5:01 pm

http://themashcanada.blogspot.ca/2014/02/sold-3-ross-street-baldwin-village.html?showComment=1393448433250

this is the one I was saying a few days ago

#155 Smoking Man on 02.26.14 at 5:02 pm

Ha look at who the idiot is, my above post, that show was filmed in Sept 2013

There will be no scathing comments, it’s closed.

Note to self: In addition to the fine print, look at the God damn Headline too..

#156 Bottoms_Up on 02.26.14 at 5:08 pm

#105 Ottawa on 02.26.14 at 10:08 am
———————————————

https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/catalog/productList.cfm?cat=70&lang=en&fr=1393448828085

#157 Bottoms_Up on 02.26.14 at 5:11 pm

#105 Ottawa on 02.26.14 at 10:08 am
—————————————–
If you believe realtor stats, ottawa has had a very stable real estate market for the past 60 years:

http://www.agentinottawa.com/1956_-_Present_Prices/page_491704.html

Only 5 years over 58 where prices were down year over year. Waiting for a correction here will be like watching paint dry.

Your best bet is to buy in a more affordable suburb, such as east or past the suburbs south or west. Or to put in a lowball offer on a house listing that has gone stale.

#158 Ed Bear on 02.26.14 at 5:27 pm

Smoking Man – “30 years ago, you needed to memorize, there was no Internet. But if getting the right answer is what counts, give them Google, may the best key word searcher win…Anyone who pays for knowledge today is an utter idiot. ”

Tell that to your oncologist when the smoking catches up and there’s an actual effective new treatment available. Or maybe to the folks who invented all of this technology you’re using right now. One could go on and on and on.

#159 rcd on 02.26.14 at 5:35 pm

In toronto in particular it would good to know for those people chasing these $750,000 to $1,000,000 homes with bidding wars and no conditions how much equity they are putting down vs mortgage financing. Are most putting down only 20%?
=====================================

“Only 20%”? That’s $150-200k in the $750k-1M house range. I would be surprised if most don’t have a down payment that large and are paying the CMHC insurance
____________________________________________
____________________________________________

It would make sense, as I have seen a few personal examples of friends or friends of friends who live in these houses but have hardly any furniture because they can’t afford it. Also happy renter right now!

#160 Rainclouds on 02.26.14 at 5:37 pm

#147 Airhead

REALLY?

“where condo towers are entirely owned by HAM and other foreign buyers?” Uhh, ok. Proof?

“I can tell you that it isn’t a matter police are going to fix in a hurry” Yes, no doubt your contacts high up in VPD have already consulted with you. ……….

Feckless Prattle

#161 Ralph Cramdown on 02.26.14 at 5:41 pm

#150 DR — “They should just stop printing this stuff.”

But then where would we mine gems like:

“But the debt will persist even if asset rates fall,” [BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic] cautioned.

Watch out for those falling “asset rates.” You could get your asset handed to you. Or the bank could take it back and you’d be assetless.

I love market euphemisms/wishful thinking like “stabilizing,” “consolidating,” “building a base,” and all those sidelines/fence-sitter ones used in the real estate world.

#162 Obvious Truth on 02.26.14 at 5:48 pm

Ray Dalio has been reading Greater Fool. Or was he the guy that met with Garth?

Yikes. The change in narrative continues. When he talks people listen.

#163 Old Man on 02.26.14 at 5:50 pm

There will be a major announcement tomorrow morning after 9:00 AM concerning a company in Ontario about employment. I have been involved somewhat in a modest way with a player who has the final details. Am not asking, so know nothing other than the fact that a huge corporation got hooped with an unknown law in Canada. Hope it works out for the best to all concerned.

#164 Blacksheep on 02.26.14 at 5:56 pm

espressobob # 152,

“Gold is pretty much useless!”
———————————————-
That’s the most ignorant (as in unknowing) statement I’ve heard in awhile.

Full disclosure: I am neither in the industry or currently own any gold, whatsoever.

#165 Smoking Man on 02.26.14 at 6:02 pm

#158 Ed Bear on 02.26.14 at 5:27 pmSmoking Man – “30 years ago, you needed to memorize, there was no Internet. But if getting the right answer is what counts, give them Google, may the best key word searcher win…Anyone who pays for knowledge today is an utter idiot. ”

Tell that to your oncologist when the smoking catches up and there’s an actual effective new treatment available. Or maybe to the folks who invented all of this technology you’re using right now. One could go on and on and on.
……………

You missed the entrie point you putz.

What’s the difference if a teacher at University is doing a live streaming class to a million students. Vs a hall with 50

As far as doctors go, do you ever read the sign on the door. It says PRACTICE, ya that right, they don’t got it figured out..

They accidently kill more people than all the drunk drivers and guns do put together.

They speak in Latin, so you don’t understand, smoke and mirror show.. Just like a used car sales men, baffle them with bull shit.

And herd in adulation to those superior God’s. Ha not me.

If fact if I got watch 20 heart transplants, and practiced on 20 cadavers. I could do it.

The schooled……… Dah

#166 PJ on 02.26.14 at 7:17 pm

When you talk about real estate, you rock!

#167 Two Out Of Three Nosties Ain't Bad on 02.26.14 at 8:12 pm

#152 espressobob on 02.26.14 at 4:48 pm — “Obviously those who work in the ‘business’ are the only ones smiling.”

You may be on to something there. Seven Countries, but India and China were not among them.

Not a gold bug, but the miners appear to be holding their own.

#119 bill on 02.26.14 at 11:35 am — “its the new dance craze that’s sweeping the ocean….”

There have long been rumors about The Mudsharks and Lawrence Welk having a spontaneously combustible relationship.

Care to comment?!

#168 Smartalox on 02.26.14 at 8:34 pm

@ CiCi (#84, 85) The StatsCan report (Canada’s Real Estate Making us Richer) was rushed into release by the Conservatives to take the spotlight off the report that you cite in your link (The death of the middle class).

All part of the disinformation provided by your Harper Government. First they gutted StatsCan, so that they could release whatever they wanted under the trusted StatsCan brand.

But the ministries, populated by the Civil servants that everyone loves to hate, got wise and generated a report based on their own assessments and historical data. Unfortunately, the internal ministry report was so damning that it had to be hidden from view, available only after the Canadian Press made an Access to Information request.

So you can see the difference between what the experts tell the minister (that Middle class income grew 0.7% in 15 years), compared with what the government tells us (We’re rich because the self-estimated value of our houses is greater than what we owe on our mortgages – never mind that savings and investments are down, while non-mortgage debt – HELOC and car loans – are up 50%)

But it’s OK, because we’re ‘Richer than we think’ right?

Right?!?

#169 Linda Mulligan on 02.26.14 at 9:16 pm

#76 – I didn’t say borrowed money was income. I said that the increase in assessed property values was what had lead to the increase in family worth. I also noted that in the US home owners had used the equity in their homes to borrow money. I then noted that lowered property values would cause the purported increase in net family wealth to vanish.

#170 Infused with Opiates on 02.26.14 at 10:43 pm

169 Linda – please re-read your post. You stated
nothing about wealth, only income (two times at that).