Stay tuned

dogvision modified

Would ya like to buy a $1-million property in some of the most gorgeous scenery in Canada, for just $625,000? O.b.o?  Here it is. And by the way, welcome to 2014.

Distress Sale – Mayne Island Waterfront Home with nearly $1,000,000 invested. Must Sell. As is condition. 3,957 interior square footage. 841 square foot garage. 955 square feet of decks.

As a new year starts, all shiny and empty, spilling over into it will be tens of thousands of listings without buyers. Like that failed dream on Mayne Island, in the unfrozen waters off the BC coast. It’s not something you’ll read about in the MSM, but the real estate market in Canada is far more wobbly than most people know. Except the sellers.

So what happens now? What will the next twelve months bring? Time for the housing stupids to be replaced by the little voice saying, ‘did I actually just pay $750,000 for a buggy piece of unrenovated crap in Leslieville?’ Or half a million for a ‘laneway house’ in Vancouver that anyone in Moncton would call a ‘garage’?

2014 will be a confusing time for anyone trying to categorize the real estate market. The trends of the past two years will accelerate. Condos are marked for death. Million-dollar homes will sell in the six figures. Regions will see sales slump and houses grow illiquid. Drywallers and crane operators will have lots more time for yoga and therapy. But the frenzy-in-the-middle will continue, even grow more intense, as hipsters compete for urban detached. Here’s why…

The writing’s on the wall for mortgage rates. No, not variable ones (the kind most people no long have, silly them) – since central banks won’t dare goose the cost of money for at least twelve more months – but rather the fixed-rate stuff. As you know, five-year mortgages are funded in the bond market and have zero to do with the interest central banks charge. In 2013 bond yields pumped and long-term mortgage costs jumped almost a full point. In 2014, I can see the same happening again in stages, taking the posted rate for the fiver to beyond 6%. Once the hipsters figure that out, you’ll see some truly moronic things happen.

So what’s with the bond market? Tapering, that’s what. It started earlier this month and will continue on right through next year. Relentlessly, the US Fed will pare back on its massive and historic monthly bond-buying program, dropping it from $75 billion to, eventually, zero. Stock markets will barely take notice, since that tapering thing is so 2013. But the bond market will naturally react as demand for debt falls and with it the price. As bond prices decline, yields rise. It won’t be anything financial investors don’t expect. But it will sure shock your mom, who pleaded with you to buy that condo.

Why tapering? Because the American economy could be the biggest story of the year, with unemployment dropping into the 6% range, the deficit melting away (it’s already down 51% since 2009) and a new surge in corporate profitability as consumers rev up. So far, house values are rising by more than 1% a month, while 50,000 new jobs have been appearing weekly. Why wouldn’t folks be anxious to leave that austerity-recession funk behind them?

And this probably means stock markets will end 2014 higher than they start it. Big news for all those who look at the headline number for the Dow or the S&P 500 and declare them overvalued. Truth is, while the Dow’s up 28% this year, it’s as much a reflection of corporate profits and an improved economy as it is all that government stimulus. After all, what did stocks do once tapering actually started? Exactly. They went up.

But higher markets next December don’t mean a straight line from here to there. After a joyous romp in 2013 with only a modest correction (less than 10%), investors could be persuaded to dump equities and collect profits at the drop of a hat. That sombrero is likely to land sometime in the first few months of the year, for a variety of reasons. If we’re really lucky, the Easter Bear will bring a nice plunge of up to 15%. Order some new cheques now.

Of course, not all will be sunshine this year. Lots of people in Canada will lose their jobs, and the Bank of Canada’s warning about deflation will seem prescient. Many souls who once believed real estate was the solution to all financial problems will end up like the Mayne Island guy – bailing for pennies on the dollar, desperately seeking a greater fool.

And it might be you.

161 comments ↓

#1 YoYo on 12.30.13 at 9:52 pm

What me? Premier?

#2 Squatch on 12.30.13 at 9:53 pm

Thanks so much for the blog Garth, I’m so glad I found you before I made catastrophic mistakes. You’ve talked a lot about what you expect Canada and the USA’s economies to do but I was wondering if you could give us any insights on Europe, the BRIC countries and emerging economies.

#3 johnny d on 12.30.13 at 9:55 pm

Ppppffffffssdhhhhffffttt! I’ll believe it when I see it. The Canadian gov’t will keep bending over backwards to stave off any financial pain for the over-indebted here.

#4 DreamingInTechnicolour on 12.30.13 at 10:00 pm

2014 will be the year that real deals start appearing. Smart investors will stand back and wait for the bottom of the market.

#5 Trump on 12.30.13 at 10:02 pm

First and last!

#6 Relocated Aussie on 12.30.13 at 10:03 pm

Glad to hear your predictions for the new year. I am wondering whether to buy now in Abbotsford or wait until the market is flooded with listings, which would mean sellers would have to lower their expectations. I have told the agent that 400k is top dollar as I do not want a mortgage because I will retire soon. Some houses are listed with insane prices compared to the quality and condition of the house. Hopefully the number of buyers drops off this year.

#7 Smoking Man on 12.30.13 at 10:05 pm

Garth get some light therapy, you’re turning into a doomer, next think you know you will be buying gold, and getting a Ron Paul Revolution in tattoo.

Altho going into the archives years back I see I did call 2014 to be bad.

Normally I say you’re out to lunch. But a variable that will sure as hell make you into a Guru forcaster is a lady that likes running. Talks like a school teacher, and hasn’t got the foggiest idea on how to bring investment into ontraio, in fact she is chasing it away.

While on the topic, yesterday was my last night in Atlantic City, hence my Jack Daniels induced made up post from last night.

I joined the dance floor, only two dancers on the the floor. One was a 7 foot chic with a crew cut, in man’s trousers, and an African American who was 4 feet tall, in elected shoes.

And then my wife shows up in the middle of a twerck.

She took a photo, it didn’t come out.

Damn

#8 Rw on 12.30.13 at 10:08 pm

Here’s an excerpt from latest issue of The Economist:

“The fracking boom could be every bit as important as the gold rush. It is about to turn America into the world’s largest oil and gas producer, outstripping Russia and Saudi Arabia. It could add almost $700 billion to the economy by 2020 (about 4% of GDP), predicts McKinsey, a consultancy. By then it will have created up to 1.7m jobs—far more than the car industry provides. The sudden abundance of natural gas has drastically reduced American energy bills while curbing greenhouse-gas emissions, since gas is cleaner than coal.”

I think this jives with your view of growth there.

#9 mark on 12.30.13 at 10:09 pm

For 600k I’d still want some siding.

#10 West Vanner on 12.30.13 at 10:11 pm

DELETED

Let the record show that was a self-delete. — Garth

#11 pinstripe on 12.30.13 at 10:11 pm

The doom and gloom has been tossed about for many years and to date it has been nothing but noise. Those that drank the kool aid became instant losers by throwing rent money into a deep hole.

With the market being RIGGED, one of these years one of these predictions might get some traction and then it will be all about “I told you so”

As per usual, nothing new here.

At least pretend not to be a realtor. — Garth

#12 45north on 12.30.13 at 10:13 pm

happy New Year Garth

Distress Sale – Mayne Island Waterfront Home with nearly $1,000,000 invested. Must Sell. As is condition.

I’d say, just Tyvek. By the way, saw a Power-of-Sale in the south-end of Ottawa today.

I can see the same happening again in stages, taking the posted rate for the fiver to beyond 6%

here’s an article by Mathew Kerkhoff saying that the bond market has confidence in the US economy. In my mind that confirms what you are saying about 5 year bond rates – they’re going higher.

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/matthew-kerkhoff/what-is-yield-curve

#13 DaleFromCalgary on 12.30.13 at 10:18 pm

Before tapering: U.S. Federal Reserve prints $85 billion per month to buy Treasuries (to fund government deficit) and mortgages (to keep house prices from collapsing)
After tapering: Fed buys $75 billion per month

Before tapering: American U6 unemployment rate (the true unemployment rate, not the U3 rate you and the mass media quote, which is just those getting benefits) is double-digits.
After tapering: U6 rate is double-digits.

Time for U.S. government to accumulate its first trillion dollars of debt: 240 years
Time for it to reach the next trillion dollars: 1 year
Total debt today: 16 trillion dollars

Strangely though, I do agree with you about Canada’s housing market. What is happening now in Calgary is exactly what I saw happen in 1980.

#14 Spiltbongwater on 12.30.13 at 10:19 pm

That listing is from Ian Watt. Garth, will you ever do a dashcam video blog? I would watch.

How about a handlebarcam vid? — Garth

#15 Ripped on 12.30.13 at 10:20 pm

Your debt is more then you think

#16 Canadian Watchdog on 12.30.13 at 10:22 pm

Craigslist GTA rental offers for December – Chart

Average Price YoY%

1 Bedroom 7.8%
2 Bedroom 14.3%
3 Bedroom 23.6%

Median Price YoY%

1 Bedroom 10.9% ($1,575)
2 Bedroom 14.0% ($2,050)
3 Bedroom 15.9%

Keep repeating it folks: Stocks are up. No inflation. Stocks are up. No inflation…

#17 Chickenlittle on 12.30.13 at 10:28 pm

Wow that was awkward…I just called my husband “Garth”.

OOPS!

Happy New Year everyone!

He must be hot. — Garth

#18 David Lee on 12.30.13 at 10:29 pm

Hi Garth,

I’m one of those guys who hardly ever posts a comment (this is the third time) simply because I’m still learning, trying to figure out what’s going on in the markets (both locally here in Vancouver and abroad) by reading your blog (immensely helpful), the Economist, etc. and trying to come to my own conclusions (e.g. I decided to sell my house in 2011, rent and invest: I own that decision).

Anyways, one of the books that I’ve had to read twice to get it was “Paper Promises” by Phil Coggan. A lot of it makes sense to me but your “don’t bet against America” position doesn’t square with Phil Coggans’ position, unless I tack on to your position “… in my lifetime” (i.e. in the next few decades, you’re right but after those few decades, he’s right).

Is that a fair reconciliation?

Again, thanks for the continuing education. I look forward to learning more from you and some of the more erudite posters on your blog in 2014.

#19 Smoking Man on 12.30.13 at 10:31 pm

West Vanner on 12.30.13 at 10:11 pm

Come on man, if you wana make into the great gatho book of strange, I suggest Jack Daniels, it’s not like wine, wine makes you reflective. Boring. Two beer glasses topped with JD, rapidly downed and your tweerking dwarfs, and doing the bump with 7 foot lesbians.

Then when your wife catches you, forces you up to the room, only to discover you missing after brushing her teeth.

Your only strategy when returning to the room to avoid a beating is to scream at the top of your lungs, hey baby, let’s have sex. She pretends to be sleeping.

Yup, JD and posting will earn you a real delete and

#20 Bobby on 12.30.13 at 10:32 pm

Kind of reminds me of many of the listings that I have looked at recently here in the Victoria area. Brand new, empty and many have never been lived in. Some are now a few years old and have been languishing on the MLS.
Of course, if you look at some of these, many of the agents will say they are expecting an offer the next day. You can’t legislate stupidity.

#21 West Vanner on 12.30.13 at 10:32 pm

“DELETED

Let the record show that was a self-delete. — Garth”

Was that a first?

I feel sorry for the poor buggers on Mayne Island, don’t know that you have ever been there, I cruise that area most summers on my sailboat and I can clearly see the attraction of owning property there if you live and work in Vancouver. I have lusted after it myself when I couldn’t afford it, with a young family in tow. I expect the sellers dream was made of much the same, unfortunately for them their timing was bad. It’s all about the timing, like everything else in life, timing is everything. I did very well out of real estate, but I know that now is not the time to be buying and since I don’t own I guess I knew when to sell.

Hey Garth – Happy New Year you crotchy old dog!

#22 Gg on 12.30.13 at 10:40 pm

Stock markets will barely take notice….

Margin debt is past 2000 and 2007 levels. The market is goosed on juice.

#23 2014 Stock Picks on 12.30.13 at 10:42 pm

Let’s make stock picks for 2014 and see who comes out on top.

My pick is: DR (TSE)

Good luck!

#24 Yitzhak Rabin on 12.30.13 at 10:46 pm

2014 will show how truly boxed in the Fed, Bank of Japan and Bank of England are with QE. The economies cannot afford higher interest rates plain and simple.

The cheap new money is the only thing that has goosed the stock and real estate markets. Only a fool would enter them now.

Expect things to tank quickly as bond yields rise and “tapering” is reversed with a slew of excuses.

Proclaiming victory here is like doing a touchdown dance on the 2 yard line. Take off the beer goggles before the party crashes.

#25 Smoking Man on 12.30.13 at 10:50 pm

Why are people crazy about real estate, go into massive debt.

It’s status, it’s why people by designer purses, jeans, and cars.

Being an individual based on our uniqueness is not fashionable, looking for approval from the collective is what everyone strives for, we express ourselves with things we think we own.

We want acceptance, and a positive review by our peers.

I say screw that shit.

Has anyone learned anything from me this year.?

Will only take one to keep your entertainment monkey coming back for another year.

#26 Smartalox on 12.30.13 at 10:51 pm

I’ve seen that place on Mayne Island from the ferry.

That property has been in distress for quite a while; odds are that if you low-ball the seller, he’ll bite.

That property sits just across the water from Tsawassen and White Rock, and reminds me of how health authorities used to send lepers off to colonize an island away from the healthy population.

Until one day, when the contagion makes it to the mainland, and spreads like wildfire because there is no resistance to the infection.

#27 Nemesis on 12.30.13 at 11:03 pm

“How about a handlebarcam vid?” — Garth

WeDareYou. TeeHee!

“I joined the dance floor, only two dancers on the the [sic] floor. One was a 7 foot chic with a crew cut, in man’s trousers, and an African American who was 4 feet tall, in elected shoes.” – Homme du Tabagisme

S***, I could have placed that on TMZ via Getty for a PrettyPenny, SM…

Wast it like this?:

http://youtu.be/4VdQSOHV1v8

BonusZen for SaltyDogz who wonder what the WorldLooksLike through SmokingManGoggles:

http://youtu.be/naF_lPjEbyE

#28 West Vanner on 12.30.13 at 11:07 pm

Must have been a first since there was no comment of any kind, not even sarcasm…..

#29 Son of Ponzi on 12.30.13 at 11:10 pm

I predict that 2014 will be unpredictable.

#30 Ronaldo on 12.30.13 at 11:10 pm

”In 2014, I can see the same happening again in stages, taking the posted rate for the fiver to beyond 6%. Once the hipsters figure that out, you’ll see some truly moronic things happen.”

Like what happened in the early 80’s when interest rates hit 22% and people were running to the bank for mortages fearing that the rates would go even higher.
That was moronic.

#31 Uh Oh Canada on 12.30.13 at 11:11 pm

Garth,

Been reading your blog since 2010. Yours is the website I visit most, after my bank. I finally applied your advice this year on investing. I agree with all of your tips except for one small thing- owning individual stocks. I sold one today and made a pretty penny. Wish I can buy you a gift…

#32 james on 12.30.13 at 11:21 pm

lets pool our money and buy it , ya 2 weeks for each of us every year ya man

#33 Smoking Man on 12.30.13 at 11:28 pm

What pisses me off about Garth.

He’s a talented gifted word smith, the money road, this and that. Never taken off the tie.

For this year you bearded freek, how about, I fell on an ice patch. Hit my head, not only do I see in threes but now have three voices inside my head.

I needed to wash the blood of my head, walked into the nearest place with a rest room, it turns out to be a boomer strip joint, dancer criteria, + 60.

Come on man, Garth lose the tie, do some fiction.

What a waste of writing Tallent.

Finance. So f_en boaring.

#34 Tiger on 12.30.13 at 11:34 pm

19 your a goof, no more to be said!

#35 Tiger on 12.30.13 at 11:41 pm

DELETED

#36 1 on 12.30.13 at 11:45 pm

Distress Sale – Mayne Island Waterfront Home with nearly $1,000,000 invested. Must Sell. As is condition. 3,957 interior square footage. 841 square foot garage. 955 square feet of decks.

Why go that far:

C2790661 http://tinyurl.com/kcu2wvl
Initial asking price:1999900
Sold for 1500000.0 75%
Property taxes 7477.59/2013
DOM: 257 49900

Price history
2013-04-14=1999900
2013-11-11=1749900
2013-11-25=1799800

#37 Pulp Faction on 12.30.13 at 11:51 pm

They should grow dope. That’s what everyone else is doing on the islands to stay afloat. You would have to be stoned to buy there.

#38 Frank the Tank on 12.30.13 at 11:53 pm

#23 2014 Stock Picks

I’ll go the technology play with CSU.TO

#39 1 on 12.30.13 at 11:54 pm

#16 Canadian Watchdog on 12.30.13 at 10:22 pm
Craigslist GTA rental offers for December – Chart

Average Price YoY%

1 Bedroom 7.8%
2 Bedroom 14.3%
3 Bedroom 23.6%

Median Price YoY%

1 Bedroom 10.9% ($1,575)
2 Bedroom 14.0% ($2,050)
3 Bedroom 15.9%

Keep repeating it folks: Stocks are up. No inflation. Stocks are up. No inflation…

I think this is the third time when I tell you that the MLS data shows NOTHING of this sort. It is flat! No increase

#40 Mr. Monday Night on 12.30.13 at 11:58 pm

Is that Raffi’s house?

#41 john from calgary on 12.31.13 at 12:00 am

Before tapering: U.S. Federal Reserve prints $85 billion per month to buy Treasuries (to fund government deficit) and mortgages (to keep house prices from collapsing)
After tapering: Fed buys $75 billion per month

Before tapering: American U6 unemployment rate (the true unemployment rate, not the U3 rate you and the mass media quote, which is just those getting benefits) is double-digits.
After tapering: U6 rate is double-digits.

Time for U.S. government to accumulate its first trillion dollars of debt: 240 years
Time for it to reach the next trillion dollars: 1 year
Total debt today: 16 trillion dollars
ps: garth is a fatty

Strangely though, I do agree with you about Canada’s housing market. What is happening now in Calgary is exactly what I saw happen in 1980.

#42 Quebec is Great on 12.31.13 at 12:01 am

I say +1 for the entertainment monkey… (sorry Garth)

#43 tb on 12.31.13 at 12:01 am

Hey Garth,
I agree with you on the REITs in that bond yields going up may not necessarily mean a price drop for the REITs, when you consider other factors.
What about Canadian preferreds though? Are the potential rate increases priced in already? I got a significant amount on sale recently, so I’ll hang on regardless and collect the dividends, but I was curious about what you think on their current status.
Thanks for the great daily read, and happy new year!

#44 Gfx on 12.31.13 at 12:03 am

DELETED

#45 Mister Obvious on 12.31.13 at 12:08 am

I never resided full time on Mayne Island but I owned land there and eventually built a home. Not a little summer cabin, mind you, but fairly substantial 1300 square foot two bedroom, two bathroom house with a full concrete foundation.

I was closely involved with Mayne Island from 1994 to 2006. We sold out but my wife and I still go there to visit occasionally. It is a stunningly beautiful place. It’s quiet, serene and teeming with natural life. No bears or wildcats though… just deer, all manner of interesting birds and copious dragonflies and hummingbirds.

If you are a long term full time resident of Mayne you will probably only leave there in a pine box and maybe not even then. The local graveyard is the final resting place for many dozens of pioneers going back as far as the 1860’s.

So, what wrong with the place? If you are a true urbanite (like me) you will love the quiet but you will never be able to settle there. In early February you could probably have a two hour snooze in the middle of any road (all of which are well-maintained & paved) and be perfectly safe.

As beautiful as it is, it will become a prison if you are not of the right sensibility. Many who have bought and developed on Mayne have discovered that fact. Here’s a few things to consider about Gulf Island living:

The ferry service to the mainland is via a single boat “The Queen of Nanaimo” built in 1962. It is perpetually late. The fee schedule is rising and the service is being reduced. BC Ferries only makes a profit on its Vancouver to Victoria run and loses a fortune everywhere else. That will only get worse.

Potable water is a scarce and precious resource. It must be stingily managed and conserved in most places. God help anyone on a community water supply who gets caught washing their car in the driveway.

There are very few stores. They are actually pretty good stores but after 6PM the only other services are either the pub, or the other pub.

There is a medical center which is also remarkably good but if you find yourself in a real emergency situation you’d be looking for an air lift to Victoria. If it’s foggy or otherwise inclement you’re talking about a water taxi, if one is readily available. If not… well… you’d be kind of on your own.

I know a few realtors over there. Last time I visited (last summer) they had cobwebs on them. Listings seem to be at an all-time high while sales are few and far between.

I would never talk trash about lovely little Maybe Island but I will say that you’d better do your research and know what living in such a place really entails before investing money and time there. I’m not sorry I did so but I am one of the many who found he couldn’t actually live permanently in paradise.

Strange as it sounds, I’m far better adapted to a big rainy city of empty bike lanes and delusional hedonists. I guess you had to be born here (even though I know almost nobody besides myself who actually was born in Vancouver).

#46 Not 1st on 12.31.13 at 12:12 am

Garth how about casually mentioning an ETF that will provide good exposure to the US market.

#47 Brian Ripley on 12.31.13 at 12:12 am

“In 2014, I can see the same happening again in stages, taking the posted rate for the fiver to beyond 6%” Garth

I just posted a chart on the U.S. and Cnd 10yr Treasury over the last 14 years and it sure looks like a 4% handle (the 14 year median) could be tested and that means mortgage rates would hit Garth’s target.
Chart here: http://www.chpc.biz/2/post/2013/12/stress-test.html

#48 quebec economist on 12.31.13 at 12:22 am

@17 ROFL

What a line up of predictions for 2014…

You forgot several big macro details that are game changers for 2014:

You forgot to mention Europe, China and Japan.

If europe does not manage to drag itself out of the mud in 2014, it will be a bad year…a do or die year for Europe. I see no solution in sight for France, Italy, Spain, Greece…

China is totally unpredictable, a box of surprises that does not always play by the rules and has huge impacts on world economy.

Iranian-American relations may cause big trouble for Canada oil…and RE in Alberta. Many will try to stop big O and Iran including H.

Personal prediction (my guess is as good as yours) : The US growth of 2013 is strongly sustained by QE. This stimulus would be sufficient in a world economy moving along. Sadly, the world is chocking and not helping the ‘forced’ momentum. Removing QE is a necessary evil, but the effects will be brutal if China, Europe and Canada are lagging behind. In other words, in the state of the worlds economy of today, removing QE would bring us back to GDP growth of 2008-2009 in about 6 months.

China is the game changer. If growth in china continues to slow, less then 6%, then markets will drop 25%…If growth remains above 7% in China i’m with Garth, US should do fine, with a couple of hiccups.

Check the growth of US in regards to China when you
google : ‘china gdp growth’ that should convince you.

Cheers.

#49 KommyKim on 12.31.13 at 12:29 am

You know that gold is dead when one of the top gold sites features stock market tickers:
http://www.kitco.com/finance/

#50 aprilNewwest on 12.31.13 at 12:32 am

So “sales slump and houses grow illiquid” yet the frenzy in the middle continues”. I gather houses under 1mil will continue to be bought as mortgages rates rise. So most houses could end up fetching a mil. Great for people with houses so long as their not in debt but how long will the “frenzy” last and then there would have to be a huge decline for them to ever become affordable again for the average person. I can sort of understand the frenzy even though for many it’s a big mistake.

#51 AK on 12.31.13 at 12:35 am

#23 2014 Stock Picks on 12.30.13 at 10:42 pm
“Let’s make stock picks for 2014 and see who comes out on top.

My pick is: DR (TSE)”
====================================

KB – NYSE

#52 not 1st on 12.31.13 at 1:03 am

Sitting here just reflecting over the past 5 years and one thing is clear. Given all the problems in the economy including rapidly increasing sovereign debts, there is no limit to the problems that can be papered over. A digital printing press can cover anything up and has.

Will we have a reckoning…someday maybe but is that in year 2014 or 2114. Who knows but at this point I think its a poor move to buck the trend that is being set up. Trillions printed, trillions on corporate balance sheets. It all has to go somewhere now, either in corporate buybacks, efficiency gains, dividend payouts or lastly in taxation.

#53 RayofLight on 12.31.13 at 1:33 am

#23 “My pick is: DR (TSE)

DR is in a nice upward channel, but it’s forward price earnings (FPE) is 98 .
I would recommend you look for similar upward channel price action, but with a FPE in the low teens,and with a price earnings growth also above it’s FPE.
Eg Trinity Industries (TRN.N), makes rail cars, (oil by rail) response to the XL Pipeline delays .

#54 Freedom First on 12.31.13 at 1:48 am

#3 johnny d

Your statement is reminiscent of the comments I read in the U.S. before their housing crash. That is okay as it is normal thinking world wide. ALL of the Countries who experienced a RE crash in the last several years thought the same thing, as a housing crash is like a speeding bullet, you don’t see it coming……and then it hits you. Fact. Always be liquid, balanced, and diversified. No exception.

#55 KommyKim on 12.31.13 at 1:58 am

RE: #45 Not 1st on 12.31.13 at 12:12 am
Garth how about casually mentioning an ETF that will provide good exposure to the US market.

VTI
VUN

#56 Peter on 12.31.13 at 2:05 am

————————————————–
Craigslist GTA rental offers for December – Chart

Average Price YoY%

1 Bedroom 7.8%
2 Bedroom 14.3%
3 Bedroom 23.6%

Median Price YoY%

1 Bedroom 10.9% ($1,575)
2 Bedroom 14.0% ($2,050)
3 Bedroom 15.9%

Keep repeating it folks: Stocks are up. No inflation. Stocks are up. No inflation…
____________________________________

Some of Canada’s major metro areas have seen soaring rental prices over the PAST DECADE, but which cities those are could surprise you…

According to the Bank of Canada, overall inflation during that period amounted to 19.65 per cent. Only one of the major markets surveyed by BuzzBuzzHome saw rents rise below the rate of inflation: Toronto, which saw a tepid 16.6-per-cent increase. [i..e. over one decade, 2003-2013]

#57 Peter on 12.31.13 at 2:06 am

source: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/12/18/rental-prices-canada_n_4467975.html

#58 takla on 12.31.13 at 2:31 am

I predict this is just the beginning of the fire sales on mayne Isl ,as well as many of the other beautiful gulf islands as well as Vancouver island and the west coast of b.c in general.Todays bctv news featured a story about large populations of star fish mysteriously dieing along the coast,never seen before!!A little research unearths lots of evidence of high radiation levels up and down the west coast of N.A…. when this story goes mainstream as its beginning to do now your going to see a flood of coastal property listing.Lets all hope they get a handle on this fukishima situation and fast!!

#59 Nemesis on 12.31.13 at 3:04 am

“This is only getting started.” – WatchDog [PriorThread]

5GoldStars.

ShakespeareanDramaturgy usually develops over the course of 5Acts…

&TheRedCurtain is just coming down on the 2nd… 

MetaphoricallySpeaking.

Which is to say, the MeatyParts are yet in play… & ‘the [Great] game’s afoot’…

HENRY V – ACT 3 SCENE I

…”That hath not noble lustre in your eyes.
I see you stand like greyhounds in the slips,
Straining upon the start. The game’s afoot:
Follow your spirit, and upon this charge
Cry ‘God for Harry, England, and Saint George!’…”…

To wit, Nemesis has been ReCalled… and thence, may well be scarce in months to come. OhWoeIsUs…

For there be HobGoblins&TalesOfWoe in DistantTroubledLands that require the ‘HumanTouch’.

Don’t Ask.

Right. That’s both Good&Bad, SaltyDogz…

Good=SanerMindsMayYetPrevail
Bad=ThingsAreHottingUp

Be Well All.

But if you see just one movie this FestivusSeason, – make it this one, SaltyDogz… It’s ‘quiet’, GrownUp & DelightfullySmall… [VeryOldSchool]

http://youtu.be/QD6cy4PBQPI

From the ScreenPlay [for SM]:

“To see the world,

things dangerous to come to,

to see behind walls,

[to] draw closer,

to find each other and to feel.

That is the purpose of LIFE.”…

A fictional motto, to be true… but I can assure you, SaltyDogz – as one who used to ‘skulk’ the corridors of the Avenue of TheAmerica’s Tallest&Best – much like the HeraldedCharacter Sean O’Connell…

It was genuinely and MostAuthentically…

ThePrevailingEthos. And not just the publication. TheNation. Too.

FactualAside: ‘Walter Mitty’ was, for all practical purposes, actually Eleanor Taylor. Where are you now, Eleanor?

BonusPredictiveZen: ‘Dangerous’ AMPAS 2014 FortuneTelling?  

Ben is taking Oscar home for BestDirector.

&Possibly best Actor, too.

Bet on it…

Well.  Like so much else in LIFE… or ‘just’ life…  we’ll just have to wait and see, won’t we?

Until then… Adieu…. & FareTheeWell, SaltyDogz*.

*Nope… NotQuite: See on you the RedCarpet @ TheKodak – &Don’t forget your CompedJimmyChoos! SM, save the JD PartyHeartys for the AfterParty.

StayTuned, SaltyDogz… ToBeContinued…

“I’ll take the RedOne.”

[FinalNoteToMr.Obvious/@#44: ThankYou SoMuch for that. From the BottomOfMyHeart… Consider ‘Nem’ a former habitué of KeatsIsland. Oops. That’s definitely SkatingOnThinIce. All I can say about ‘that’ is this: “Shame about the Baptists. Albeit, they sure do know how to ToastAGoat when they want to… and one of them makes SuperlativeLasagana for CharismaticCrowds.” One final thing: RealHeroes monitor VHF Channel 16 – 24/7/365… and that includes your DrunkenNavy. You’d be suprised, Mr.Obvious. Pleasantly.]

#60 Try VTI or VUS.TO on 12.31.13 at 3:08 am

@ #45 Not 1st on 12.31.13 at 12:12 am

– Try Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) if you want to invest with US dollars or Vanguard US Total Mkt ETF (CAD-hdg) (VUS.TO) if you want to invest with CDN dollars.

#61 Mark on 12.31.13 at 3:11 am

“Average Price YoY%

1 Bedroom 7.8%
2 Bedroom 14.3%
3 Bedroom 23.6%

Median Price YoY%

1 Bedroom 10.9% ($1,575)
2 Bedroom 14.0% ($2,050)
3 Bedroom 15.9%

Sure sounds like a lot of delusion to me. New landlords desperately trying to cover their costs (equity + debt) by asking higher prices. After all, we know the new condo supply in the GTA is quite significant.

#62 angela on 12.31.13 at 3:45 am

Clearly Garth T you still have no clue about Monetary science (the ability to understand currency) perhaps Alan Greenspan can explain it to you in this clip in less than 2 mins
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqUzQjXNliU

once again like i said before it aint the stock market that is going to be the problem its “the dollar Stupid”
PS great post on the realestate part

#63 Casual Observer on 12.31.13 at 3:46 am

#45 Not 1st
“Garth how about casually mentioning an ETF that will provide good exposure to the US market.”

Not Garth, but here are a couple ETFs recommended by Canadian Couch Potato

VTI – Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (MER = 0.05%)
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0970&FundIntExt=INT

VUN – Canadian version of VTI (MER = 0.17%)
https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/individual/etfs/etfs-detail-overview.htm?portId=9557

#64 Sgip on 12.31.13 at 4:21 am

Re
with unemployment dropping into the 6% range,

NO WAY. WHAT KIND OF JOBS? Burger flipping for seniors?

I really wish I cud get you and Chris hedges on a panel with jay from the real news. I wud tweet that Shiz out yo

#65 PJ on 12.31.13 at 6:12 am

Taper down to zero? Bernanke is a genius? You don’t think the happy US numbers you’re reading aren’t cooked? A 30% return in a rigged market is normal? The biggest pump and dump in history is what it is.

#66 PJ on 12.31.13 at 7:34 am

So let me get this straight…

Printing money, which always ended up in disaster in history will work this time.

Taper will go to zero and everything will be rainbows and unicorns with temporary set backs.

Ben Bernanke is a genius

The US happy numbers aren’t cooked but Canadian real estate are.

The US stock market up 28% in one single year is normal.

Good luck with that.

#67 bigrider on 12.31.13 at 8:02 am

Looks like some of the predictions surrounding suburban homes in the GTA , verses urban, were wrong for 2013.

Largest detached price appreciation for 2013, Richmond Hill, second Markham.

Source? — Garth

#68 Squatter on 12.31.13 at 8:26 am

About the Mayne Island property:

Does someone who lives there need to take the ferry to the main land every week to buy new produce: fruits, veggies, milk, etc. ???
Don’t they need to take the ferry to get any services???

#69 the jaguar on 12.31.13 at 8:32 am

Garth has a lot of tolerance. Some of the people who post here are freaky. Their New Years binge well on its way.

#70 erebus on 12.31.13 at 8:49 am

http://www.therecord.com/news-story/4293435-canadian-consumers-enter-2014-with-confidence/
” Canadian consumers are heading into 2014 with more confidence than a year ago, buoyed by optimism that jobs are more secure and real-estate prices will rise, according to the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index.”

Buoying optimism Garth. How can there be so many mixed opinions about this topic? Do we even know what’s going on anymore?

#71 neo on 12.31.13 at 8:53 am

“Why tapering? Because the American economy could be the biggest story of the year, with unemployment dropping into the 6% range, the deficit melting away (it’s already down 51% since 2009) and a new surge in corporate profitability as consumers rev up. So far, house values are rising by more than 1% a month, while 50,000 new jobs have been appearing weekly. Why wouldn’t folks be anxious to leave that austerity-recession funk behind them?” – Garth

Ok. So if Americans are so confident why is family formation still at depression levels, 5 years later and well into a “recovery” as you put it? Hard for housing to recover without babies being born and families being formed.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/30/population-growth-rate_n_4520485.html

“This real sharp decline has to do with recession-related issues,” Frey said. “Fewer people come into the country because there aren’t as many jobs, and people are postponing child-bearing.”

Now you’re worried about the US birth rate. Amazing what the worst gold performance in 30 years will do to a doomer’s brain. — Garth

#72 RayofLight on 12.31.13 at 9:20 am

I believe he US is just on the cusp of a huge in shoring manufacturing renaissance. Lower energy costs, as a result of fracking and horizontal drilling,will induce manufacturers to bring production back into the US. Most of the new jobs will be technical/engineering, because most of the manufacturing will be via robots, 3D printers etc. with little opportunity for employment for non skilled workers. I believe most of the US growth will incur in the central states that have governments friendly for manufacturers, the coasts will be left out,if not drained. I agreed totally with Garth re “Don’t bet against the US”. I believe the US will be the global powerhouse for growththrough the next decade, and the catalyst for this growth is cheap energy. The XL Pipeline will probably get approved after Obama, but it’s usefulness by that time will be dubious.

#73 JM on 12.31.13 at 9:35 am

My predictions for 2014
-Dow will finish down from where it starts 2014
-gold will be up; it is currently produced @ cost, so mines will not mine it at a loss
-QE will be at least $65 billion/month, if not more, in some form
You can take that to the bank.

**Just because people aren’t collecting government handouts and are not longer counted as unemployed, does not mean things are getting better**

#74 James on 12.31.13 at 10:02 am

How about we find a distress sfh in the Toronto core in the 600-900k range? Right…

#75 world view on 12.31.13 at 10:03 am

Hi Garth,

I do not understand the cheer-leading for US on this blog. Your premise on this blog is that the Fed can control the bond market. While it has been true since the crisis, I am not sure if it is always possible. If that were always the case, then the 2008-09 crisis should never have occurred.

You believe the rates will rise only when economy picks up and that will take care of corporate earnings. But in a stagflation, (inflation without growth), rates can rise and profitability can decline. And when rates rise without growth it can hurt corporate debt causing higher default rates and lower equity returns as well as lower bond returns. The fed can keep rates low (or at any level it wants to) and control asset prices to some extent but then it cannot control inflation, growth and/or deflation. The 1970s is a good example of that scenario. By your logic a scenario like stagflation can never occur.
You truly believe that inflation and employment growth can be controlled. (I am not quite sure if that can happen without consequences)

#76 Dupcheck on 12.31.13 at 10:31 am

Happy New Year Garth, I enjoyed reading your blog this year.

#77 RVP on 12.31.13 at 10:37 am

Before purchasing property on Mayne Island, I would want to think long and hard and do a lot of research on oil spill risks and the impacts of increased ship traffic in the vicinity. We are having a huge increase in the amount of fossil fuels being shipped by sea in the Georgia Strait, much of it going right by Mayne Island. Kinder Morgan is twinning its Trans Mountain Pipeline that terminates in Burnaby. From there, oil will be shipped by sea via Georgia Strait, some of it going passed Mayne Island when ships take the southern route around Vancouver Island. We also have a new fuel pipeline being built in Delta and Richmond at the mouth of the Fraser River to deliver fuel to the Vancouver International Airport. If that pipeline were to have a spill, right at the mouth of the river, the river currents would push the oil straight out into Georgia Strait right in the direction of Mayne Island (that’s a good thing for people who live up river, a bad thing for people who live on the Gulf Islands)–basically Mayne Island is right across from where the terminus of this new pipeline will be at the south arm of the Fraser River. Then we have a major new coal terminal being built at Fraser Surrey Docks. Coal will be leaving Fraser Surrey Docks by ship, heading down the south arm of the Fraser River into Georgia Strait, again going right by Mayne Island when ships take the southern route around Vancouver Island. This is in addition to the massive coal terminal at Roberts Bank in Tsawwassen, just a stone’s throw away from Mayne Island. Mayne Island should be spared from increased coal dust in the air as prevailing winds will carry it east up the Fraser Valley to places like Surrey and Abbotsford and Chilliwack. But what would be the risks and impact of a coal spill in Georgia Strait next to Mayne Island? Basically, we are really ramping up the shipment of oil and coal by sea in the Georgia Strait so anyone who buys real estate on Mayne Island will find themselves in the centre of all the activity and the accompanying risks. Buyer beware.

#78 Steven on 12.31.13 at 10:52 am

Distress Sale – Mayne Island Waterfront Home with nearly $1,000,000 invested. Must Sell. As is condition. 3,957 interior square footage. 841 square foot garage. 955 square feet of decks.

Would I consider such a deal?
Two conditions:
1. Fukushima never happened and will never happen.
2. The payment is made with money I have with out debt and its payment and possible loss is considered to be no more serious than buying a beer. I would have to have money to burn and I don’t!

As it stands now there is a non zero chance the property is radioactive and I don’t have money to burn buying real estate any where, job or no job.

#79 Westcdn on 12.31.13 at 10:56 am

Canada, can we remain a premier country to live in despite our miserable winters? – don’t throw the towel in yet. I think a healthy domestic market (read consumption) and a current account trade balance around zero is necessary. If we want to raise our standard of living higher, we need to improve our current account trade balance (work our butts off or do more with less) but then every other country in the world is looking to do the same thing (currency wars?). I look at Ontario and Quebec to see declining automotive and mining industry export trade. This cannot be good for the Cdn economy.
One of the negative things about capitalism is that it is impatient and wants results now. It will sacrifice the future for the present – I wish the oil sands develop had gone slower where we developed markets before production.
This is where I see a role for government – not pension guarantees although I have to admit the economies of scale do exist and can be beneficial overall. There is a need for government to provide a safety net from our taxpayer decisions – enough said.
I think commodity prices (except precious metals) will stabilize around here – I am hoping gold prices continue to decline and trust in Bitcoin continues to rise but that is another story. I see a rising bond yield curve where long term rates are rising faster than short term. The 10 year US treasury gets my attention as to where rates are going. It tells me the smart money doesn’t see inflation in the short term as an issue. I do expect bond prices to fall in the 2014 but without inflation, REITs look better to me during this period than preferred’s which I think will suffer with bonds to a lesser degree. I see a lot of money in sideline cash – will it move to equities? One of the signs of a stock market crash is when retail money (you and me) all jump together – I don’t it see it yet.

My feeling is that debt defaults will proceed a stock market collapse which is the reverse of the 30s depression. Debt defaults include pension promises. It may not happen but I think I am whistling in the dark for that hope. Anyway, I anticipant only a correction is the stock market in the next few months and then a run to much higher. FOMO (fear of missing out) is a powerful force (greed) until it meets fear.

This comment on “Wolf of Wall Street” is disturbing to me because it shows Wall Street as placing their moral interests before Main Street – what a surprise! . http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/12/29/my-wolf-of-wall-street-review/

May my projections be wrong. BTW: I am invested nearly 90% in Cdn equities so is death and destruction my future? – I don’t think so.

#80 Mr. Frugal on 12.31.13 at 11:04 am

Garth,

Since it seems pretty certain that long term bond yields are going up, what are your thoughts on using options or inverse ETFs to short the long end of the bond market.

I prefer having a balanced portfolio and then playing with my dog. — Garth

#81 Obvious Truth on 12.31.13 at 11:10 am

Here come the gold bulls. Again.

#82 Arse on 12.31.13 at 11:10 am

The First will be Last, and the Last will be First, according to the Good Book.

#83 Barry in Pickering on 12.31.13 at 11:29 am

))) Distress Sale – Mayne Island Waterfront Home with nearly $1,000,000 invested. Must Sell. As is condition. 3,957 interior square footage. 841 square foot garage. 955 square feet of decks.

Poor choice of a poster child for falling values Garth. This is a house under construction, and since when does amount “invested” in building a dream house indicate value? You should find a house listed under tax assessment if you want to illustrate falling prices.

In most communities tax assessment is no indication of market value. — Garth

#84 Hicksville Alberta on 12.31.13 at 11:37 am

#58 takla

I agree with you 100% on the radiation fallout from Japan. I have a house in Powell River which i dearly care for and have intended on retiring to (if i can ever get out of shXthole Alberta) but think i will be dumping it shortly as the radiation fallout story keeps getting way more compelling every day.

I am thinking instead of looking at finding a place on the East Coast by the water or perhaps even further afield than that as this thing looks like it has legs.

I use a site http://enenews.com/ as one of my main sources for information on what is happening over there (and here) with this unfolding global disaster. It was called “Energy News” previously but now seems to be primarily a news aggregator for the nuclear fallout scenario taking place.

So it is not only the Islands but the mainland including B.C., Alberta and Saskatchewan et al that are immediately being affected by this.

Ex-wife #1 has a place in Point Grey in Vancouver that is worth quite a bit but she isn’t interested as she is getting long enough at the tooth (as i am) that it doesn’t really matter to her (yet) but one of my daughters and her husband and three of my grandkids live out there as well and i am starting to slowly turn them onto some of the news articles on the possible seriousness of this whole situation.

Sucks to be so paranoid but perhaps on ounce of prevention may well be worth many pounds of cure if this is at all for real.

#85 Ralph Cramdown on 12.31.13 at 11:44 am

#74 JM — “gold will be up; it is currently produced @ cost, so mines will not mine it at a loss”

This is a goldbug joke, right? Look at the balance sheets of the biggest gold miners and you’ll discover that they’ve billions of debt that has to be paid… somehow. Some of them have royalty agreements with streaming companies, and JVs with local governments which would frown upon the mine closing. And maybe they’ve sold some of their gold forward. Mine it for delivery, or buy those contracts back? And let us not forget the copper miners, which will be producing gold as a byproduct regardless.

#86 ole Doberman on 12.31.13 at 12:08 pm

Garth what about our investments in gold and bitcoin, i went all in and waiting for the big run. Is this a good time to average down?
Thx mang

#87 gladiator on 12.31.13 at 12:18 pm

Garth and fellow dogs, Happy New Year!
May it be better for all of us than 2013.

Smoking Man, your post 25 is short and epic. I am saving it in my collection of thoughts/comments/stories from the web.

#88 1 on 12.31.13 at 12:18 pm

#75 James on 12.31.13 at 10:02 am
How about we find a distress sfh in the Toronto core in the 600-900k range? Right…

How about finding distress homes above $1M …
Active SFHs: 1257
Active SFHs >$1M:557

I just posted you one that sold for 75% of the initial asking price after 250 days on the market.

#89 1 on 12.31.13 at 12:21 pm

#68 bigrider on 12.31.13 at 8:02 am
Looks like some of the predictions surrounding suburban homes in the GTA , verses urban, were wrong for 2013.

Largest detached price appreciation for 2013, Richmond Hill, second Markham.

Source? — Garth

True. I posted charts regarding this a while ago

Stats, please. — Garth

#90 KommyKim on 12.31.13 at 12:24 pm

RE:#58 takla on 12.31.13 at 2:31 am
Todays bctv news featured a story about large populations of star fish mysteriously dieing along the coast,never seen before!!A little research unearths lots of evidence of high radiation levels up and down the west coast of N.A….

A little more research would have shown you that the starfish problem is caused by a virus which causes them to dissolve. Further reasearch will show that the radiation from Japan showing up on the West coast is barely above background levels.

#91 Be greedy when others are fearful on 12.31.13 at 12:30 pm

I’ll go with TID.TO for my stock pick.
Lets see what 2014 brings. Will I be the greater fool or will the money rain down from the sky.. reaches for a bottle of booze.

#92 JM on 12.31.13 at 12:36 pm

#85-Ralph Cramdown-This is a goldbug joke, right? Look at the balance sheets of the biggest gold miners and you’ll discover that they’ve billions of debt that has to be paid… somehow. Some of them have royalty agreements with streaming companies, and JVs with local governments which would frown upon the mine closing. And maybe they’ve sold some of their gold forward. Mine it for delivery, or buy those contracts back? And let us not forget the copper miners, which will be producing gold as a byproduct regardless.

Debt payments are made only for so long when one is cash negative, then eventually mines are shutdown. Remember, these companies are public companies and have shareholders to answer to.
Gold will finish 2014 up, period. It cannot go under $1200 an ounce. Have a look and see what happens when it does.
The Dow will finish the year down. Explain how the GDP in the US grows by maybe 3% in 2013 (with fudged numbers) and yet markets are up 30%. Logical?
If the economy is doing so well, why not stop all the tapering? Why $10 billion at a time?
I would not be surprised to see QE pushing $100 billion/month before it gets to $0.
JM

#93 56 GOSSAMER AVE Toronto on 12.31.13 at 12:36 pm

Distress Sale – Mayne Island Waterfront Home with nearly $1,000,000 invested. Must Sell. As is condition. 3,957 interior square footage. 841 square foot garage. 955 square feet of decks.

Why go that far:

C2790661 http://tinyurl.com/kcu2wvl
Initial asking price:1999900
Sold for 1500000.0 75%
Property taxes 7477.59/2013
DOM: 257 49900

Price history
2013-04-14=1999900
2013-11-11=1749900
2013-11-25=1799800
———————————–
Actually this house was on the market longer than I knew and it sold for a lot less than I thought

It was first mentioned on Guava on Nov 5 2011

C2233780 – M2M – 56 GOSSAMER AVE Toronto, Ontario – $2,599,000

*Totally Rebuilt & Designed*Approx 8000Sf Of Luxury Living Area*Heated Indoor Pool + Spa*Elevator*Sauna*Wet Bar*Wine Cellar*Cedar Closet*2 Kitchens*New …

So actually it sold for 57% of the initial asking price after 2 years.

#94 Bill on 12.31.13 at 12:49 pm

Not everybody thinks the Canadian economy is done:

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2013/12/30/Central-banks-scooping-up-Canadian-dollars-in-droves.aspx

#95 Stoopid Idiot on 12.31.13 at 12:51 pm

Part of watching the show is the forecast and prediction festivities that greet each New Year. This year’s entries will be of special interest to gold owners coming off the first down year for gold in the past thirteen. As our good friend, James Turk, says further on: “One losing year after 12 winning years is not that bad.”

http://www.usagold.com/publications/theGoldOwnersGuideTo2014.html

Victor Sperandeo: The Coming Hyperinflation

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZO5kcQVK68

Decide which one is true. The top article is by the Wall Street Journal. The bottom article is from ZeroHedge.com. Which one do you believe?

U.S. pending home sales rise in November
12/30/2013 10:01:59 AM

By Ruth Mantell
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Pending sales of homes ticked up in November, the first gain in six months, signaling that upcoming activity may rise, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday. The index of pending home sales increased 0.2% last month to 101.7, slightly above a 10-month low of 101.5 in October, but down from 103.3 in November 2012. “We may have reached a cyclical low because the positive fundamentals of job creation and household formation are likely to foster a fairly stable level of contract activity in 2014,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. Also, buyers are becoming accustomed to higher mortgage rates and pricier properties, economists say. Although higher mortgage rates have taken a bite out of housing-market activity, Yun said sales in 2013 will be the highest in seven years. Pending sales typically close within two months. An index reading of 100 equals 2001′s average contract activity level.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pending-home-sales-tick-up-in-november-2013-12-30?siteid=bnbh

Pending Home Sales Plunge At Fastest Pace Since April 2011

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/30/2013 – 10:12

For the 5th month in a row, pending home sales missed expectations (though a silver lining is a positive print MoM – breaking a 5-month streak). Year-over-year, home sales collapsed at 4% – its worst drop since April 2011, and that even after prior data was revised lower. Still, despite this ongoing plunge, there is always hope – as engendered by NAR’s chief economist who states (somewhat unconfidently), “we may have reached a cyclical low.” Cylical low indeed – just don’t look at the chart.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-30/pending-home-sales-plunge-fastest-pace-april-2011

I love your name. (BTW, gold crashed in 2012 and again in 2013.) — Garth

#96 Having sex and buying real estates to shelter their offspring on 12.31.13 at 12:57 pm

The last day of the year and the stupidity reaches the climax:
http://tinyurl.com/nksb3dz

I went talk to Toronto School Board a while ago. I was basically told all the schools in my area (on YUS line) are oversubscribed. The school yard has no more room for children so some will have to stay inside portables to take turn to play outside. Stuff like this belong to the 80’s, how did we get here yet again?

TDSB tried building a brand new school (Avondale) and kicked all high rises built after 2002 to that school, went there, wasn’t even a place to park.

And on my daily walk to the subway station, I see 3 school buses, full of elementary school kids pouring out of the condos into the buses.

The echo boomer effect shouldn’t be this profound yet but somehow schools that were under capacity last 10yrs all of a sudden are over capacity. The oldest of the echo boomer should be having kids just about now and it should at least another 2 or 3yrs old to rush their kids into the schools. IN other words, it’s going to get far worse than it will get better. If what’s happening today persists, there wouldn’t be enough high schools in ten or fifteen years. It’s very possible at that time the market will slow to a grind like the 90’s, where people settled for the long term. But now I don’t see a real crash (25%+ within 1yr) being feasible.

Base on what I can see everyday for the last 15yrs in the North York area it’s quite clear there’s fundamental changes to the demongraphics. IMH no amount of stimulus will stop people from having sex and buying real estates to shelter their offspring.

I think financial castration should be next after lobotomy in GTA as the most prescribed surgery.
Only that can stop the endless stupidity that generates gems like the above

#97 Canadian Watchdog on 12.31.13 at 1:02 pm

#93 JM

The gold bears still don't get it: there's not much downside risk in gold because investors hardly own it and miners have de-hedged into net long positions. According to BlackRock data, global gold ETPs as a percentage of investors' total assets has dropped from 7.1% in January to 3.1% in November. What was that rule Garth said about rebalancing assets when they fall below fixed allocation levels? Or is gold dead money and that rule doesn't apply anymore?

This is my favorite part: when the gold bears have to eat their own words and do what the other sheep managers are doing because everybody just mimics each others portfolio these days. Meanwhile, I'll be waiting on the other side selling while they're buying. It never fails.

So the bet is: will money managers do what they're trained to do and rebalance winners into losers? Or is gold now a dead asset that should be excluded from one's portfolio?

Last note: The only way gold can decline further is if managed money increases their short positions, which is already at an all-time record high and vulnerable to any change in expectations. This would catch them off guard and have them all scrambling to cover. Again, I'll be waiting on the other side when that time comes.

If you own an ETF of the TSX60 you own enough gold already. Anything above that is overweight. This is an asset which just had the worst performance in 30 years and whose prospects are equally grim. — Garth

#98 Mister Obvious on 12.31.13 at 1:22 pm

#69 Squatter

There are two very adequate grocery stores on Mayne island. (One of them even has a sizeable liquor section). There is no pharmacy or bank service.

If you want Costco and more, it’s far quicker, easier and cheaper to take a smaller inter-island ferry to Victoria than it would be to travel back to the mainland on the larger ferry.

The ferry between Mayne and Vancouver usually goes twice a day and must be reserved in the busy season. You are advised to book at least a week in advance.

BTW, that ferry does not land in Vancouver, it lands in Tsawwassen. From there it’s 4o minute drive to downtown Vancouver but it takes much longer in rush hour through the Massey Tunnel.

#99 mobk on 12.31.13 at 1:26 pm

At the beginning of 2013 you predicted that the BoC would raise rates and hence variable rates would rise. Now you call them silly for not having variable rates?

Sadly the economy has wilted and the BoC won’t move this year. But the bond market will. As for silly, that’s reserved for people who rushed into fivers this summer, and for those who can’t read. — Garth

#100 James on 12.31.13 at 1:37 pm

#89 1 on 12.31.13 at 12:18 pm

That’s my point. The heavily discounted sfh are multi million mcmansions. Us “commoners” are targeting the 600-900K homes. They are hot potatoes and will be for a very very long time.

#101 Ralph Cramdown on 12.31.13 at 1:43 pm

#93 JM — “Debt payments are made only for so long when one is cash negative, then eventually mines are shutdown.”

If the miners stop paying their debts, the bondholders become the new shareholders, the old shareholders and the expensive head office overhead get wiped out along with all the debt repayment and capitalized development costs, and the mine can operate at a lower cost/oz to the exclusive benefit of the former bondholders. Only if the new actual cash cost to mine the highest grade parts of the ore body is higher than spot gold would the mine actually shut down.

You don’t seem to understand that a miner with a leveraged balance sheet and high overhead can lose less money mining gold at a loss of $100/oz or more than by not mining that gold at all. Obviously this isn’t sustainable in the long term, but in the short term, it’s perfectly rational. General Motors doesn’t shut down their assembly lines when it looks like they’re going to have an unprofitable year, but after too many losing years, the shareholders get wiped out, and after restructuring, the same plants make the same cars at a lower cost per unit. Gold mining is no different if the miner has debt.

#102 Penny Henny on 12.31.13 at 1:43 pm

Mr Frugal asked-
Garth,

Since it seems pretty certain that long term bond yields are going up, what are your thoughts on using options or inverse ETFs to short the long end of the bond market.

I prefer having a balanced portfolio and then playing with my dog. — Garth
—————————————————–
why can’t the inverse ETF’s be part of a balanced portfolio???

#103 Stoopid Idiot on 12.31.13 at 1:47 pm

I love your name. (BTW, gold crashed in 2012 and again in 2013.) — Garth

I hear you Garth.. not sure what James is referencing regarding first year in twelve? Best to you and your in the new year and definitely make time to play with the dog. Ralph must have bought in the 1900.00 plus range. I’m calling a bottom on Quality Gold Share… I have been averaging down all years… Pray for me

Stoopid

#104 Ret on 12.31.13 at 1:49 pm

Re: #71
” Canadian consumers are heading into 2014 with more confidence than a year ago, buoyed by optimism that jobs are more secure and real-estate prices will rise, according to the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index.”

There, that should justify all the new debt that Canadians plan on piling on in 2014. After the spring thaw, we will all be dancing in the streets. Party on Canada!

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.13 at 1:51 pm

Fascinating.
My work requires me to travel to Vancouver Island on a regular basis. I have been watching the aforementioned Mayne Island house being slowly constructed over the past few years.
For anyone even thinking of buying this house please note.
The house is located at the entrance to Active Pass
( one of the listing photos shows a massive “Spirit Class BC Ferry” sailing past.)
Every time a BC Ferry enters or exits Active Pass it blasts its horn. So, if you like the idea of listening to BWAAAAAAAAAAAA. Every hour for aprox 12 hours a day, 365 days of the year……..
Buy

#106 Serge on 12.31.13 at 1:52 pm

Biderman’s Money Blog .The reality is the US economy is barely growing and there is no acceleration in sight

http://charlesbiderman.com/

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.13 at 1:55 pm

Oh, I also forgot to mention the proximity to “neighbors”.
The house is sandwiched amoung aprox 5 other finished homes that are equally massive.
You won’t have far to go to borrow a cup of sugar…..

#108 Barry in Pickering on 12.31.13 at 2:06 pm

In most communities tax assessment is no indication of market value. – Garth

============
Nonsense. Assessed value is certainly a better indication of market value than just using some value (for a partially built dream house) someone types into a craiglist post (full of zeros $1,000,000, where did they pick that value from?) and using that as your poster child post of lost value.

Actually market value is obvious. And it is not determined by government. — Garth

#109 Shawn on 12.31.13 at 2:14 pm

Inverse ETFs

Penny Henny at 103 asks:

why can’t the inverse ETF’s be part of a balanced portfolio???

******************************************

It’s because Inverse ETFs are very short-term oriented and speculation oriented. A Balanced portfolio is long-term oriented and is about investing, not speculation.

Owning a portion of the bonds and shares and units of corporations is a positive sum game over time as money flows from customers of businesses to the debt and equity owners of business.

Inverse ETFs are a pure side bet. The money that flows in from customers also works against the holder of an inverse ETF. Inverse ETFs are zero sum games (at best), they WILL lose money over longer periods of time. They are negative sum games after costs and over time as profits push stock prices up)

In summary, inverse ETFs are for traders and speculators, not investors (who are owners).

#110 Shawn on 12.31.13 at 2:15 pm

Inverse ETFs on long bonds

They are a way to speculate on bond yields. Balanced portfolios stay away from speculation.

#111 Julia on 12.31.13 at 2:18 pm

I know a young fellow just starting out who, less than two years ago, bought a newish condo townhouse in Toronto with a friend. As predicted the friend is now wanting to move out and in with his new girlfriend so they are now having to decide what to do with the condo.

Problem is… during the ice storm the living room ceiling collapsed. This is the third time water has come in this way. It’s probably due to poor construction around the upper deck. This is a perfect example of Garth’s caution about kids listening to their misguided parents rather than enjoying what should be the most carefree years of their lives. I just hope they at least manage to get their initial investment back. Kids! When I was his age the last thing on my mind was owning property in Toronto.

#112 Shawn on 12.31.13 at 2:28 pm

SQUIGGLES ON A SCREEN VERSUS COMPANIES

Most investors know so little about companies and their value versus the stock price that that they resort to investing in symbols and squiggles on a screen with little understanding of the companies that underlie the stock price.

A couple of comments above

#23 “My pick is: DR (TSE)

#38 I’ll go the technology play with CSU.TO

#92 I’ll go with TID.TO for my stock pick.

What is telling about these is that the name of the actual company was not even mentioned.

#113 Steven on 12.31.13 at 2:44 pm

I think it was a year or two ago that a man in Ottawa was taking radiation readings and posting them on youtube. Many of the readings were well above the maximum safe limit. He eventually stopped posting videos probably because they were troll magnets and people and government didn’t take him seriously.
I guess the the government and the people think it is a joke and deserve to get fried with radiation. Some people have to find out the hard way. Then there was a video about some guy north of Toronto wiping down his solar power array with a paper towel after a rain and getting a geiger counter reading of 20,000 counts per minute. I think that video is still on youtube some where. Here we are.
.(pt3) Radioactivity in rain 20 000cpm / sq. meter Toronto Canada!!! .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDSpCxjZ2D8

If that sort of thing doesn’t bother people then they are a lost cause.

#114 Victor on 12.31.13 at 2:50 pm

Garth, hoping you are right about the economy.

#115 94 on 12.31.13 at 2:53 pm

Happy New Year Garth and the Blog Dogs!!

#116 Steven on 12.31.13 at 3:01 pm

I guess the old postings at you tube are still on line.

radiation report Ottawa Canada Aug 5th, 2012 .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4u14i6F6oE

(4.13x 24×365)/1000= number of milliseiverts per year.
Pre fukushima maximum dose per year is 1 milliseivert.
In this case the reading was 36.1788 milliseiverts per year assuming a constant exposure over a year.

Some how I don’t think this is a matter for levity or something that should be ignored.

#117 JM on 12.31.13 at 3:02 pm

Ralph Cramdown#102
Can’t compare GM to a gold company. GM would not be around if it had not been bailed out by the gov’t. There is not chance in hell that a gold mining company would be bailed out by the gov’t.
Gold will not finish 2014 lower than where it starts it, period.

#118 espressobob on 12.31.13 at 3:09 pm

#103 Penny Henny

A reason why beta-pro ETF’s don’t fit in ones portfolio long term?

http://www.horizonsetfs.com/pub/en/etfs/?etf=HND&tab=overview

http://www.horizonsetfs.com/pub/en/etfs/?etf=HNU&tab=overview

Check the 1 year performance. These ETF’s are calculated daily and become heartbreakers when the underlying asset moves sideways.

#119 Old Man on 12.31.13 at 3:15 pm

HAPPY NEW YEAR to all and one, especially for Mr. Turner who puts up with some of our rants from time to time. Now if you are drinking do not drive the car anywhere, as it will cost you if caught, so do the taxi thing, or just stay at home because the cops will be on patrol to throw your ass into jail.

#120 JM on 12.31.13 at 3:21 pm

Some facts about the US, that are undisputed…

It appears that the 4th qtr. of 2013 has brought us some labor strength. In other words, jobs! I know the markets are influenced greatly by the Jobs Jamboree that happens the first Friday of every month, except when the government is shutdown! But let’s get into some facts here about the so-called resurgence in jobs that most people don’t hear or want to hear. Did you know that even the Dept. of Labor admits that the government employs one out of every six American workers, either at the federal, state, or local level? Or that 97% of the net job creation in 2013 has been part-time workers? And that the labor participation rate is below 63%, which hasn’t been that low since the Carter Administration? Nor am I going to go into the millions of Americans on some form of assistance from the government.

This as per Chuck Butler on the daily pfenning

#121 Canadian Watchdog on 12.31.13 at 3:27 pm

If you own an ETF of the TSX60 you own enough gold already. Anything above that is overweight.

Huh? So your PM strategy to is already baked into the TSX60? Why don't you just admit you know about trading precious metals, or commodities for that matter and only suggest holding a dead asset because everyone else is doing it.

#102 Ralph Cramdown

I don't know why you're trying to justify gold stocks with fundamentals when all it takes is for Janet "Do More" Yellen to come out next month and extend forward guidance to 2016 (QE5) to get off the bottom. I wouldn't worry about large debts sitting on quality miners balance sheets because right now there's a swarm of Chinese and Japanese banks, pension and SWFs out prowling for M&As. These guys don't want bullion, they want mining companies and their resources.

PDF Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. Business Cooperation Agreement with the South African Department of Trade and Industry

If I could make one suggestion to you Ralph, that would be to stop reading these fake Austrian goldbugs' opinion and start reading how the real gold market works. Starting tomorrow for the first time, Chinese banks begin interbank lending based in RMB gold forward contracts. This is going to change everything as a new RMB spot quote and forward lending rate will challenge NY and London for price discovery dominance.

There's only one chart you need to see to understand why gold is heading higher, and that is this one (Source: BlackRock) showing how bitty Asian (mainly China) wealth funds' allocation to gold is. The reason is, they or even foreign investors were not allowed to buy or trade domestic gold, until now as China's QDII and QFII program expands.

I sit here reading these posts and just laugh as each blogger tries to spell a case for gold's bear market when the biggest developments are just underway. Garth is right. This is not a gold blog.

Given the last two years, I believe the laugh is on you. — Garth

#122 I need help on 12.31.13 at 3:45 pm

I cant identify this individual. I think it’s a 10 yr old
Stephen Harper, but I could be wrong

http://www.thelastpogo.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/SantaGrave.jpg

#123 AK on 12.31.13 at 3:48 pm

“If you own an ETF of the TSX60 you own enough gold already. Anything above that is overweight. This is an asset which just had the worst performance in 30 years and whose prospects are equally grim. — Garth”
====================================

Of course the prospects are equally grim.

The last correction took 20 years. LOL… :-)

I don’t understand why you gold nuts are so touchy, defensive and antisocial. Oh, wait… — Garth

#124 Obvious Truth on 12.31.13 at 4:07 pm

The bounce and stock action was bound to do it. Sorry Garth.

Happy new year to you and your family. The pooch too.

We get to have more fun it 2014.

#125 onpar on 12.31.13 at 4:13 pm

Garth,
Should we top up our TFSA early in Jan or wait for a correction/sale prices? Perhaps wait until the first quarter passes?

The two actions are unrelated. — Garth

#126 Steven on 12.31.13 at 4:56 pm

Ak shares in an ETF are paper not gold and there is no assurance that the ETF really has gold or silver and you can not find out one way or another. If real metallic gold isn’t in your hands you don’t have any. End of story. Buy the real deal and take delivery, billions of asians can’t be wrong.

Billions of Asians. You guys are a riot today. — Garth

#127 Kingarthur on 12.31.13 at 4:56 pm

Season’s Greetings to the ROC! Here is the reason for depressed prices on the Gulf Islands (such as Mayne Island): two words… BC Ferries!

#128 TheCatFoodLady on 12.31.13 at 5:06 pm

It’s been a decent year for this household – life brought it’s usual ups & downs & thankfully none were catastrophic. Yesterday & this morning, we completed our review of last year’s finances – how well the budget held up & why, for example. We plotted out, (with plenty of wiggle room), the budget for next year.

Garth & posters here gave me plenty of ideas to research & contemplate. Even if I choose not to undertake certain actions, it’s important to be able to explain ‘why?’ to yourself. I learned to beat down emotion & to, when I couldn’t thump it into submission, not act on it. Sadly in one matter I learned the hard way but thankfully, at no great cost… except for my pride.

We ended the year with respectable gains – nothing spectacular but I’ll always prefer balance. The tax hit will be negligible.

The behaviour of those around me continues to make me scratch my head. Went to an outlet mall yesterday – with a list of needed items & a budget. The parking lot was jammed. While more than a few were shopping mindfully, too many had the ecstatic: “oh look Martha – it’s a SALE!” expression on their faces. Plastic was flying. In too many cases – it was rejected. How the hell do you not know your plastic is maxxed out?

I’m grateful that we’re heading into 2014 on track with our money. The sheer relief of being debt free – I don’t ever want to forget the feeling, lest I do something stupid. Knowing that even on our small income, we have something left at the end of the month – priceless. It took us years to get there. We have an emergency fund – it could be bigger but it’s a solid start. We have money invested & growing.

We have each other & family, some good friends & neighbours. We’ve crafted a life & lifestyle that may strike others as small but it’s satisfying. It brings us joy & peace; the odd bit of happy excitement too.

Can we ask for more from life?

May Garth, Dorothy & Bandit, the Amazons & blog dogs enjoy a peaceful & prosperous New Year.

#129 45north on 12.31.13 at 5:12 pm

RVP: Before purchasing property on Mayne Island, I would want to think long and hard and do a lot of research on oil spill risks

I did a little research. The Exxon Valdez oil spill happened March 1989. It caused a lot of damage but most of it has been cleaned up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exxon_Valdez_oil_spill

http://www.evostc.state.ak.us/index.cfm?FA=main.haveWeRecovered

#130 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 12.31.13 at 5:15 pm

Dear gold nuts. Read it and … Oh wait, you all buy on the dips. Lots of buying opportunities in 2013. You should all be well and truly golden by now.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-31/gold-bulls-retrench-as-price-drops-most-in-32-years-commodities.html

#131 Bill on 12.31.13 at 5:17 pm

DELETED

#132 KommyKim on 12.31.13 at 5:24 pm

RE:#126 onpar on 12.31.13 at 4:13 pm
Garth,
Should we top up our TFSA early in Jan or wait for a correction/sale prices? Perhaps wait until the first quarter passes?

If you have extra cash, dump it into your TFSA right away. Invest it in a HISA inside your TFSA if you want to try timing the market:
http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/high-interest-savings-accounts-at-discount-brokers/

Or invest it in ETFs right away. Up to you.

#133 Mona on 12.31.13 at 5:31 pm

Thank you for all your great advice!

Happy New Year Garth! Wishing you and your family, heath, prosperity, love and joy in the 2014.

#134 Mona on 12.31.13 at 5:31 pm

oops health….that is…

#135 Old Man on 12.31.13 at 5:47 pm

I am not in the least optomistic about 2014, as see some bad things about, so am going into 30% in all cash on deposit to park, as sense something is blowing in the wind that could hammer the market hard with no time to get out upon a downfall. Just my take and nobody has to tell me this cannot happen.

#136 AK on 12.31.13 at 5:58 pm

#126 onpar on 12.31.13 at 4:13 pm
“Garth,
Should we top up our TFSA early in Jan or wait for a correction/sale prices? Perhaps wait until the first quarter passes?”
====================================

“The only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good.” –> Warren Buffett …..

#137 GUY GADBOIS on 12.31.13 at 6:54 pm

2014, the year of the big RE crash in Canada. No soft landing here…

#138 economictsunami on 12.31.13 at 7:07 pm

The very same troubling conditions that brought previous monetary policy bubbles to their demise presently exist today but now to the nth degree.

We continue to have faith in the very regulators that clearly missed all the previous risks, that more importantly, their own policies helped create.

We felt we needed new rules to protect us but the truth is that you can create all the rules you want, when there is a weak enforcement will, it matters not.

Now we have more growth in shadow banking/ shadow exchanges (HFT) and shadow commodities warehouses. (read Tatyana Shumsky’s recent articles in the WSJ.)

Now regulate what you can’t see.

Price discovery ?

Risk evaluation?

Too Big Too Fail?

To Big To Jail?

Try: To Big To Regulate…

When Risk Is Separated From Gain…

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.ca/2013/12/when-risk-is-separated-from-gain-system.html

#139 Old Man on 12.31.13 at 7:15 pm

The cute dog looking out the window reminds me being on Orcas Island with my aunt and uncle years ago who were extremely wealthy Americans. My aunt said come and look at the deer out the window as they had 1000 feet of ocean frontage, and a dozen deer were feeding on their Estate property; first time in my life had ever seen such an event.

That was interesting. — Garth

#140 takla on 12.31.13 at 7:20 pm

post#91 kommykim……I guess the star fish virus your referring to is also causeing cases of sickened mammals in particular coastal bears,seals,ect showing up with patches of fur loss from Alaska all the way down the west coast as far as California.Surpriseingly missing is data for radiation levels that has been monitored for yrs and has been off line to the public since fukishima.David Suzuki has some eye-opening non-mainstream info that will open a lot of eyes to this developeing crisis

#141 Herb on 12.31.13 at 7:30 pm

Happy New Year, Garth, family and fellow dogs. I was quite happy with life in 2013, and don’t see how 2014 could be any better. But, here’s hoping for all of us.

#142 Ronaldo on 12.31.13 at 7:50 pm

#140 Old Man – re: Deer

check this out(watch to the end)

http://www.wimp.com/deerfence/

#143 Ronaldo on 12.31.13 at 8:28 pm

#131 Rosie – what you need to understand about gold or the other precious metals is that the price is determined by the paper price. The trading in paper gold is in excess of 100 times the amount of gold available at any one time. The speculators (hedge funds) have been dumping their paper gold and countries like China, Russia and India have been gobbling up the physical hand over fist to the tune of the entire annual world production. If the supply/demand fundamentals applied to the precious metals things would be a lot different.

The investors who buy physical gold don’t usually sell it. It’s held as insurance and a store of wealth. Most ETF’s have very little gold backing them. Fewer than 1% of the people in NA own any precious metals. Ask 100 people on the street if they own any gold and I suspect maybe one may have some minor amount. I have roughly 3/4 of an ounce which I paid around $200 for years ago. Silver is a much better speculative play. I have done very well having purchased it in November of 08 for under $9.00 and selling a large portion at 49.44 on May 1, 2011. Like any other investment, you need to do your due diligence. My portfolio holds 5% in precious metals related investments and that suits me just fine. Shares in the miners right now are very cheap and if you have a two year time horizon, this could be a very attractive time to buy. Buy when things are on sale and when nobody else wants them.

#144 Daisy Mae on 12.31.13 at 8:36 pm

#71 erebus: “How can there be so many mixed opinions about this topic? Do we even know what’s going on anymore?”

*********************

People believe what they read. It’s what they prefer to believe. The truth is immaterial. And so they continue to spread the good news….

#145 Ronaldo on 12.31.13 at 8:56 pm

#130 – 45 North –

”I did a little research. The Exxon Valdez oil spill happened March 1989. It caused a lot of damage but most of it has been cleaned up.”

Speaking to someone who lived near where the spill took place, he tells me that you just have to dig down into the sand a bit to find the oil. It may look ok on the surface but below it’s a different story.

http://environment.about.com/od/petroleum/a/oil_spills_and_environment.htm

#146 John on 12.31.13 at 8:57 pm

#141

David Suzuki’s claim to fame is pulling stuff out of his a$$.
Half of what he talks about has no basis in fact.

#147 AK on 12.31.13 at 8:58 pm

#144 Ronaldo on 12.31.13 at 8:28 pm
“My portfolio holds 5% in precious metals related investments and that suits me just fine. Shares in the miners right now are very cheap and if you have a two year time horizon, this could be a very attractive time to buy. Buy when things are on sale and when nobody else wants them.”
====================================
Or you could be waiting 20 years, like “The last gold correction” LOL.. :-)

#148 Ronaldo on 12.31.13 at 9:13 pm

#114 Steven here is what Suzuki had to say about that recently.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTqzqoKMLEg

#149 Pulp Faction on 12.31.13 at 9:15 pm

DELETED

(I just want to be on “the bad ass list”)

:-)

#150 Shawn on 12.31.13 at 9:18 pm

What People Believe…

Number 145:

People believe what they read.

***************************************
True, and once they have a certain belief they tend to read only material that supports that view. They will refuse to read alternative views.

i.e People read what they (already) believe

We all do it, with limited time we tend to skip and dismiss material that we know we don’t agree with. Except Garth he apparently wades through all the comments here, even clicks the links, often.

#151 Shawn on 12.31.13 at 9:21 pm

AT LEAST WE TRY

All the regular readers here are ahead of most of the population in that at least we all are trying to understand finance and make the best decisions.

Many of us disagree with each other, but at least we are all trying to better ourselves financially, and trying to learn.

That’s a good start.

#152 Daisy Mae on 12.31.13 at 9:25 pm

#112 Julia: “Kids! When I was his age the last thing on my mind was owning property in Toronto.”

*********************

Exactly! I didn’t even want to be encumbered with furniture, let alone real estate. Never entered our minds. Unfortunately, my room mate and I must have paid six times over the value of the rented stuff. LOL

#153 Smudgekin on 12.31.13 at 9:25 pm

Like Garth said – love your job folks…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/us-business/hewlett-packard-to-cut-5000-more-jobs/article16147441/

#154 Tony on 12.31.13 at 9:38 pm

Re: #12 45north on 12.30.13 at 10:13 pm

And who paid off the author to post that utter garbage? I can tell you right now what will happen to interest rates in America. They’ll turn negative meaning you pay the bank to hold your money. This is what will happen short term. Longer term the American dollar will be worth less than the Mexican peso so inflation will actually occur but the U.S. dollar will lose its rank as the world’s reserve currency.

#155 Ronaldo on 12.31.13 at 10:04 pm

#148 AK –

”Or you could be waiting 20 years, like “The last gold correction” LOL.. :-)”

You obviously know “precious” little about the PM market.

#156 Steven on 12.31.13 at 11:34 pm

Ronaldo the quake that triggered the tsunami that buggered the nuclear reactors was absolutely no accident and was not natural. It was induced through the use of HAARP transmitting a large amount of energy at 2.5 hertz for 3 days from Gakona, Alaska.
The target was the subduction fault off the coast of Japan. I’ll E mail the proof to Garth and we will see if he has the guts to post it here for you all to inspect and investigate.
If you people would laugh, giggle and call me a wild eyed conspiracy theorist then you are all a lost cause.

OMG — Garth

#157 Steven on 12.31.13 at 11:56 pm

OMG — Garth.

Garth you can say that after you read your email and examine the evidence I just sent you. The same delightfull bunch that gave us all political correctness, 911, the war on terror gave us 311 and so far they got away with it!

#158 bdy sktrn on 01.01.14 at 12:05 am

#140 Old Man on 12.31.13 at 7:15 pm
The cute dog looking out the window…..

————–
look closer , the dog is watching the blonde on tv.

——————————–

re mayne isl- nobody wants to buy a half finished place. it never was worth a mil, so it never really dropped.

bc ferries is the fly in this ointment.

—————————————–
Consider ‘Nem’ a former habitué of KeatsIsland….

——–
my condolences, why would you leave a beautiful wild island less than an hour from downtown?
this year was the best yet – weather,orcas,dolphins and a humpback – you can find me there every wknd in the summer:)
were you at eastbourne?

#159 silentbobz on 01.01.14 at 11:08 am

Garth,

I am not sure why you are so dead set against FSBO. Other then MLS.ca, what are the realtors providing? I live in a relatively major centre and have sold 2 homes FSBO for the same price the realtors who camped out at my house said they would sell it for. I negotiated with the buyers in less then 15 minutes at my kitchen table, filled in the same paperwork that you can print online (that anyone with moderate literacy skills should understand), and went to my lawyer which I would have had to do anyways. The whole process took about 3 hours and I saved 25kn each time…how is this not rational if you have the time and live in a place where your buyer will likely be a drive by anyways? Just saying, realtors are probably the most overpaid people in Canada with our high home prices, and are really only interested in closing deals…

#160 Daisy Mae on 01.01.14 at 12:00 pm

#152 Shawn: “AT LEAST WE TRY…”

*********************

Yep. Alot of us haven’t a clue. But we ARE trying to learn. Info slowly begins to sink in if Garth repeats it often enuf! :-)

But you are correct — people have preconceived notions and are greatly influenced by the media and those around them. It’s very difficult to change opinions.

#161 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.01.14 at 3:20 pm

@#158 Steven

No. We don’t think you’re a “conspiracy theorist”……
We know you’re just a loon.