Ambition

ambition1

Isn’t this blog fun? We get to ridicule people who pay a massive premium for an aging row house across from a gurgling sex club, or shell out $1.12 million for an ugly red-bricker the owners wanted only $869,000 for.

Realtors love stories like this. They create the patina of a buzzing market, where if you snooze, you lose. Add to that the spectre of rising mortgage rates, as we’ve had for most of the year, and you get frenzied little property virgins and upclimbing GenXers desperately spending every borrowed dollar they can get their hands on.

Every market’s different, of course, but in the big ones that the almighty F watches – Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver – excess abounds. The average SFH is $885,843 in 416, $664,889 in Cowtown and $1,222,608 in poor Van. Meanwhile CREA’s average price for all properties everywhere is almost $392,000, the highest on record.

Yeah, yeah, I know new house sales have collapsed, that demand’s chasing a reduced number of listings, that the market’s segmenting with cheap condos and McMansions languishing while real estate board numbers themselves are untrusted, but does F know all this?

The mortgage brokers don’t think so. It’s starting to scare them. They seem convinced the peckerettes have a new round of stealthy actions they’re about to take against real estate – and their livelihoods.

As we all know by now, simply jacking up interest rates to cool off the orgy of borrowing which Canadians have been romping in, won’t work. More expensive car and student loans, corporate financing and lines of credit would hobble an already-staggering economy and cost jobs. Meanwhile the almost-1% jump in five-year mortgage rates we saw earlier this year backfired on the feds. Instead of chasing the virgins back into the dank safety of their parents’ basements, it encouraged them to buy before rates go even higher. That’s why Toronto sales so far this month are 18% above those of last year.

Meanwhile debt is on the move again. Credit card borrowing, family debts and unpaid mortgages – they’re all at record levels, and rising weekly. It’s completely pointless for the Bank of Canada or the elfin deity to warn people (he did it again last week), because they’re not listening. They don’t care, and they don’t believe. They just want caesarstone and Miele. Screw prudence.

This brings us to now. The Department of Finance seems bent on causing mortgage rates to rise by diddling with the way the funding for them is raised. As the trade site Canadian Mortgage Trends opines, “There is no need to wonder if we’ll get new mortgage restrictions. It’s a given that more regulations are coming. The only questions are what rules to expect and when.”

F’s minions recently circulated a secret discussion paper within the industry detailing proposed changes to mortgage securitization and insurance which (if implemented) would favour the big banks, hurt competition and jack the cost of a home loan by maybe a fifth of a point. They affect how mortgage-backed securities are sold, disadvantaging smaller players (who usually offer the best rates), and also raising the cost of insuring MBS assets by forcing insurance to be regularly renewed.

While these changes will be invisible to the house-horny thirtysomethings desperate to buy half a dodgy house with money they can never repay, the mortgage boys warn they’ll once again up the price of debt and nail them. Already a wave of consolidation and rationalization is sweeping through the industry, tightening the grip of the Big Banks and lessening competition.

Why haven’t you heard about this? The brokers asked the feds that very question:

“The consultation paper contains a number of detailed questions directed at financial institutions that participate in CMHC’s low-ratio mortgage insurance and securitization programs,” replied the finance guys. “The confidentiality around the consultation is intended to encourage financial institutions to provide detailed and candid answers to help inform government policy.”

Uh-huh. Sounds like a drone to me. It’s one thing for F to move again before the real estate gasbag explodes and wipes out billions in equity (and the economy), but it’s a lame idea to make the banks’ monopoly stronger at the same time. Nonetheless, here we go.

Let’s see what bank F joins when this gig’s over.

155 comments ↓

#1 Ripped on 11.18.13 at 9:33 pm

#133 D.D. Corkum on 11.18.13 at 6:33 pm

Ripped
At 1355 words, I’m having trouble reading your comment in one sitting. Can you provide the Coles Notes version?

———————————————————-

The SHORT version is … The Fed keeps printing and lending (QE) and the rest of us zipperheads keep borrowing.

#2 totalinvestor.com on 11.18.13 at 9:36 pm

Economist predicts long, painful housing correction in Canada

http://totalinvestor.blogspot.ca/2013/11/economist-predicts-long-painful-housing.html

#3 Kinky on 11.18.13 at 9:36 pm

DELETED

#4 not 1st on 11.18.13 at 9:37 pm

Smoking mans right. I don’t really care if Rob Ford smokes crack or drinks or swears. I mostly don’t like him cause he is fat, red faced and looks like a whale stuffed into a cheap suit. He should be manning a toll booth somewhere.

#5 AisA on 11.18.13 at 9:41 pm

It’s painful to watch really. It’s like a complete re-run of the Greek meltdown I lived through already, but in slow motion.

It’s like Wile-E-Coyote going off the cliff while chasing the road runner, but in Matrix style bullet time that never seems to want to end.

#6 Rexx Rock on 11.18.13 at 9:43 pm

The increase in sfh price in Canada means a strong economy and growth.Canadians equity in their homes have always meant wealth for retirement.One day this may be reversed.

#7 TnT on 11.18.13 at 9:44 pm

Will this have an effect on the variable rate?

If not then won’t the masses just pig out on that?

#8 Waterloo Resident on 11.18.13 at 9:45 pm

I think I said it before:
Soon, that $500,000 house will be sold for $875,000
and that $875,000 house will be sold for $1.2 Million.

Nothing short of a nuclear war is going to slow this crazy Canadian housing market, NOTHING.

Ever heard of Blackberry? — Garth

#9 recharts on 11.18.13 at 9:49 pm

No crash is coming. No tsunami. No rerun of 2008. If there’s a correction in markets, it will be the normal variety (5%-20%) we see most years. Hate to break it to you, but the world’s recovering a little more every week. — Garth

Garth, for RE I provide anecdotal data and I am an amateur in regards to RE stats, charts and so on. I do not pretend to be trusted but I would like to believe that as long as my data is genuine it should show a correct picture (a zoom in picture if you like) for the area that I am watching
There is more educated people who do that for living and when it comes to national trends they should be trusted not me.
The same goes for stocks and world economies. In that sense I prefer to hear what the big guys have to say about markets and their future, no matter how much you reassure me that everything will be OK.

Why would I reassure you? We need foils. — Garth

#10 Smoking Man on 11.18.13 at 9:57 pm

Canada Doomed.

Track6ers everywhere buying crazy priced real estate just to fit in and bashing an odd behaving good guy named Ford just to fit in.

Zillionaires start thinking about moving your assets offshore, this country has a fast spreading cancer called; “The Schooled Entitled Pinko’s”

Behavior is paramount; it’s 100 times more important than getting things done efficiently and productively. Ingenuity takes a huge back seat when compared to decorum and appropriate behavior as demonstrated this week in Toronto.

Cattle behave very well as they are lead down the death plank to the kill floor.

We are competing in a global market; we need more innovation and creative’s. Our current behavior centric education system wipes out thousands of minds and people that could invent shit, figure out how to fix problems as they think much further out side the normal bounds which are created by stupid insecure people.

Creative’s by nature do not behave very well, they never have. Just ask Garth, he crossed the line when he started this pathetic blog.

This Ford bashing is a clear demonstration on how the majority of the population thinks.
The guy does his job extremely well. He’s an ass in private life. The schooled being trained and bred to zero in and mob odd behavior.

What is very important to all the trained slaves. Crushing his EGO, he would have been forgiven had he went away, put his head down, crocodile tears, said sorry, then he’s back.

But as we learned in school, ego’s are a no no. Conform or be banished is the message year after year. Who is going to go out on a limb with a unique idea when this is what you got to deal with.

Ford being a true blue Smoking Man, he would rather die on his feet than live on his knees. That’s why I love the guy. Min Wong a slime back stabber who lives on his knees, pathetic.

Forget Fords record, it doesn’t matter, everyone is trained to attack the odd ones. Look at all the fan chirps I get on hear, especially with newbie’s, but as soon as they discover I have a few more than 26 fans, they adjust…..The predictable Herd. If they sense I have no fans, that when they pounce.

Making obedient slaves via the school system during the industrial revolution was the right thing to do. That ship has left for China and India. In the information age if any country wants to prosper we mast have more creative’s per capita than the countries we compete with.. Instead of making creative’s we crush them. Acceptance to the collective’s rules and fitting in is all that matters, brilliant outliers often banished.

Lets face it dogs, If I was on a board of directors, my companies would smash records. But a man like me would never be accepted.

At the tax farm I at times have created miracles, made problems that some of the greatest schooled PHD math minds could not even come close to solving, only because I questioned the validity of the information that went into the equation and don’t arbitrarily trust the credibility of the ones supplying it. I have no respect for certificates.

I’m amazing, but if I publicly supported Ford, or let the powers that be know my true feelings about the Education system. Good possibility security will quickly escort me out the building. Matters not that they have an Einstein on the premises, who has turned shit into gold over and over again.

As Garth says no one has savings no one can retire. So true and now that PC’s have no chance of winning with Hudak at the controls.

Wynn’s party will win.

They have chased away manufacturers because of high electricity prices, to the joy of every Pinko tree hugging, bike ridding idiot. In China they trade bikes in for SUV’s.on
Not in Toronto, other way around.

What do you think employers are thinking about right now, especially that Wynn is talking more taxes for pensions? Employers pay the lion share of that already; I pay it twice when I issue myself a pay check.

Business are looking for a more accommodating centre to operate in. The left has no concept of that. But they a really good at picking on the fat kids.

Fellow Zillionaires it’s time to start thinking about protecting your loot. Just look at what the Pinko’s did in France. It’s coming here.

Just be ready to run like hell.

#11 bdwy sktrn on 11.18.13 at 10:04 pm

IF ANYONE ever had any doubt whatsoever that govt does encourage and does result in wasteful, idiotic, overpriced pissing away of hard earned private sector dollars , vancouver has proved it with hitting a new low….

get ready for this…..

some FATCAT public servants who are STEALING pay and pension from the real enonomy have in their vast wisdom to… you wont believe it…. made DOORKNOBS illegal – yes it’s true – doorknobs.

flipping crazy, makes me think rob ford is not so bad!

#12 Brendan on 11.18.13 at 10:04 pm

Which little lenders have better rates? I’ve been to mortgage brokers, credit unions and banks in the past and a mortgage manager at TD offered me the best rate by at least half a point.

#13 RetardedHorse on 11.18.13 at 10:05 pm

P.S. Bitcoin is at $830…

#14 Daisy Mae on 11.18.13 at 10:05 pm

“…but does F know all this?”

****************

He knows, of course. ‘F’ is a puppet….under the complete control of Harper. He does as he’s told. What stupid voters we are.

#15 bdwy sktrn on 11.18.13 at 10:06 pm

no i was serious, doorknobs. Really.

new construction of residential homes will not allow doorknobs. only levers.

death to nanny state govt intrusion.

#16 Saskatoon-Living on 11.18.13 at 10:08 pm

Yet another S’toon home builder discounting inventory:

http://fraserhomes.ca/#pageID=1&selectedPageID=1

#17 GsAmazon on 11.18.13 at 10:10 pm

Instead of chasing the virgins back into the dank safety of their parents’ basements, it encouraged them to buy before rates go even higher.

I hear ya, Uncle Garth. *sigh I was so smug skulking around enjoying this fun blog thinking ha! I don’t know any fools and then -bam- 18 months of poppin everywhere I turn. Never thought we’d say this, but G and I are holding on to our virginity like it’s made of solid gold. ;)

#18 detalumis on 11.18.13 at 10:12 pm

The ugly red-bricker for 1 million+ in central Toronto, walking distance to everything, is a better investment than buying a white elephant in a faux town that is more than 1/3 senior citizens and growing, with no economy to speak of.

#19 rainclouds on 11.18.13 at 10:13 pm

#4 not 1st

hilarious, blew the tea right out my nose

thanks dude

#20 NoName on 11.18.13 at 10:14 pm

What is This World Coming To?

3 skoda models in Britain’s top 10 in a national satisfaction survey automobiles. ‘guess brits lower their expectations since M Carney moved in…

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/04/24/article-0-19734817000005DC-232_634x375.jpg

#21 JSS on 11.18.13 at 10:20 pm

So, is this when we buy common shares of the Big-six Canadian banks?

#22 bdwy sktrn on 11.18.13 at 10:20 pm

and who just comes on the news to explain this – none other than geoff meggs – sickening

yes the geoff meggs who pushed in bike helmet laws because not only is he a piss poor bike rider who crashed into a car, but was not man enough to accept responsibility for his lame riding skills, therefore we all need helmets – he is not a man, hell schoolgirls have more sense and spine

#23 Ripped on 11.18.13 at 10:21 pm

#8 Waterloo Resident

Soon, that $500,000 house will be sold for $875,000
and that $875,000 house will be sold for $1.2 Million.

Nothing short of a nuclear war is going to slow this crazy Canadian housing market, NOTHING.

———————————————————-

Are you old enough to remember 2000? You know the dot.com bubble bursting ?

Ah man the dot.com bubble was unreal, buy any IPO tech stock on open and you were guaranteed a triple by close, a $20 stock turned into a $60 stock

The 1000’s of Nortel’s, Yahoo’s and Amazon’s (that have all now gone poof) were giving 1000’s of shares away to employees for jobs well done.

Tape the stock market page (still newspapers back then) to the wall and throw a dart at it, buy whatever it hit, you were going to make money !

Then one morning it all ended.

#24 Lucid living on 11.18.13 at 10:22 pm

Should I sell my Scotia Bank stock? Its up 13 percent since I invested. Serious question

#25 Goldie on 11.18.13 at 10:22 pm

The Banksters Garth… The Banksters … winning…

#26 45north on 11.18.13 at 10:24 pm

Flaherty’s minions recently circulated a secret discussion paper within the industry detailing proposed changes to mortgage securitization and insurance which (if implemented) would favour the big banks, hurt competition and jack the cost of a home loan by maybe a fifth of a point.

well I must confess that I would not notice changes in the rules that govern mortgage backed securities. And it’s hard to get too excited about a discussion paper. The issue doesn’t pass the threshold of the 15 second sound bite.

Garth if you can get me the discussion paper I will find the guy at the Alterna Bank who can understand it.

https://www.alterna.ca/

#27 jim on 11.18.13 at 10:29 pm

I am just SHOCKED that the federal government would bring in regulations that favour large banks over smaller competitors. Just SHOCKED.

#28 Smoking Man on 11.18.13 at 10:32 pm

#19 rainclouds on 11.18.13 at 10:13 pm
#4 not 1st

hilarious, blew the tea right out my nose

thanks dude
………………………………………..
he aint a dude if he thinks like that, nor are you…..tea?

Is your man purse designer or knock off?

#29 jim on 11.18.13 at 10:35 pm

#8

You must have missed the latest nobel prize awards. Housing markets follow patterns, and the best way to understand valuation is through traditional ratios of price/rent, price/carrying-cost and price/income.

The odds that Canada is somehow super special and can bear endless increases in price is questionable at best.

However, even if you are right, there are bad things coming. Studies have shown a correlation between high house prices and lowered employment opportunities. High prices mean high transaction costs, which mean reduced mobility and a few other factors. They also mean capital is going into unproductive assets instead of enhancing productivity (etc).

In short, either way you are in big trouble. I am enjoying the show from the sidelines in the US, where people wonder why Canadians are so dim witted.

#30 bdwy sktrn on 11.18.13 at 10:35 pm

LAND is not and never will be internet/tech stocks

bad comparison

——————
bitcoin on the other hand…..

#31 bdwy sktrn on 11.18.13 at 10:36 pm

#23 Ripped on 11.18.13 at 10:21 pm

LAND is not and never will be internet/tech stocks

bad comparison

——————
bitcoin on the other hand…..

#32 Dean Mason on 11.18.13 at 10:38 pm

It is good that people will pay more for a mortgage because they think that a house is an investment.

I hope they are going to get creamed like interest rates on GIC’s and government bond yields from 1994, 9.00% to 9.50% to 2013, maximum 3.15% to 4.25%, today.

This last 17 to 18 years of this real estate fantasy land should of had at least 3 separate 10% or more corrections which is part of the normal real estate market.

They were all laughing and happy when interest rates kept dropping so now the table is turning. Wait until Christmas 2014.

#33 Ripped on 11.18.13 at 10:41 pm

#31 bdwy sktrn on 11.18.13 at 10:36 pm

A bubble is a bubble… no matter if it’s painted with internet, real estate, bitcoin or tulips.

#34 Ripped on 11.18.13 at 10:42 pm

#31 bdwy sktrn on 11.18.13 at 10:36 pm

A bubble is a bubble… no matter if it’s painted with internet, real estate, bitcoin or tulips.

sorry, forgot gold

#35 Snowboid on 11.18.13 at 10:43 pm

#8 Waterloo Resident on 11.18.13 at 9:45 pm…

Yup, about two years ago you said…

“That $500,000 house you have your eyes one will soon have bidding wars on it, and it will sell for $10 Million in about 6 years time, just wait and see.”

And I replied…

“That is flat out hilarious!

Let’s for a minute assume you want that house in 2017 and have the $ 2,000,000 down payment.

The mortgage at 5% over 25 years is $ 544,000 a year. So if we figured on spending 30% of family income on the mortgage then that means $ 1.5 million income a year.

The average income from today would have to almost double every year for the six years.”

There is a better chance for nuclear war than salaries doubling every year 2011-2017.

Did yours double in the last two years?

#36 X on 11.18.13 at 10:51 pm

Why doesn’t F do what the RE industry really fears – increase the minimum down payment for loans covered by mortgage default insurance which is backed by the federal government.

If the current average dp is 7%, an increase to 7.5% really would only eliminate the bottom of the bottom feeders.

#37 Snowboid on 11.18.13 at 10:52 pm

#15 bdwy sktrn on 11.18.13 at 10:06 pm…

Seems silly to waste time and dollars to implement a law like the doorknob ban.

But come to think about it, since we sold our mini-McMansion (built in 1956) in Victoria, I haven’t seen a place with doorknobs.

Everything built since the 1980s seems to have levers. Here in Phoenix to be ADA compliant homes and business have to have levers instead of knobs.

#38 Fort Mac Flatlander on 11.18.13 at 10:54 pm

What is an appropriate cost of commercial rent to property costs to justify purchase? Anyone?

#39 Obvious Truth on 11.18.13 at 10:54 pm

Watched income property with my wife yesterday. She’s a real estate lover. Our buddy Scott was helping a friend who had fallen into debt trouble.

He had to give up his ugly townhouse because of it. The good news is that Scott helped him buy an ugly single family home.

Better yet he was able to spend 70 gs setting up an apartment in it. Nona never needed a renter.

This has become about behaviour. Irresponsible behaviour always comes back to bite you when you can least a-ford to have it happen.

Liked reading some of the ideas on efts. Seems like some people are doing some homework. A lot of people have some extreme macro views. I think that’s cool. Just please remember that the market doesn’t care about what little fish like us think.

Even the great book tweeting Icahn is caught 30% short. And the market don’t care.

Little guys like us get to be more nimble. Why let our macro views take that away. Let tomorrow bring you opportunity. Fact is you don’t know what you don’t know.

Garth really tells it like it is.

#40 P.Bocanegra on 11.18.13 at 10:54 pm

#10
Go home Rob, you’re drunk. And stop pushing little ladies you fat crackhead.

#41 Nemesis on 11.18.13 at 10:56 pm

Once upon a time… Nemesis had no choice but to drive a Lada like that… our collective future depended upon it. I digress…

#42 Snowboid on 11.18.13 at 10:57 pm

#10 Smoking Man on 11.18.13 at 9:57 pm…

Maybe time to take yourself up on your own offer from a couple of months ago:

“I’m leaving this city for sunny beaches or desert forever soon.

Toronto people suck……………”

#43 Canadian Watchdog on 11.18.13 at 10:58 pm

Poor F hasn't learned anything after failing four times and not noticing what's already unfolded down south, after they, too, tightened up on private lenders.

Want 18% returns? Become a subprime lender

It has come to this. Unable to save enough for retirement with traditional investments, baby boomers in search of yield are becoming their own private Countrywide Financials. They’re loaning cash from their deposit accounts and retirement plans and hoping for a big pay day: specifically large returns that will boost their income and maybe even allow them to pass an inheritance on to their children. There is no official data, though it’s estimated that at least 100,000 such lenders exist — and the trend is on the rise, says Larry Muck, chairman of the American Association of Private Lenders, which represents a range of lenders including private-equity firms and individuals who are lending their own cash. “We know the number of people who are doing this is increasing dramatically — over the last year it’s grown exponentially,” he says.

Governments and central banks have invested in the most valuable thing that fiat money can buy: more dumb money.

#44 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.18.13 at 11:08 pm

@ #27 jim on 11.18.13 at 10:29 pm
I am just SHOCKED that the federal government would bring in regulations that favour large banks over smaller competitors. Just SHOCKED.
—————

heheheh – exactly.

And, I’m sure you’re equally shocked that they’d circulate the proposed changes to insiders first before screwing over the little guys and Joe Q Public.

#45 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.18.13 at 11:13 pm

Here would be my proposed CMHC changes:

1) Only available for a primary residence

2) Only available to first-time buyers, and potentially low income buyers (since that was the original purpose of the CMHC program to begin with)

3) Maximum mortgage = Average price for that City/region (not the arbitrary $1M level it is now)

4) Minimum down payment = 10% (20% would be better, but we’re slowly climbing back from 0% down/40-yr days)

#46 broadway skytrain on 11.18.13 at 11:18 pm

#34 Ripped on 11.18.13 at 10:42 pm
A bubble is a bubble… no matter if it’s painted with internet, real estate, bitcoin or tulips./gold

——————
but the LAND bubble is a little different, slower to inflate and nobody wants NT or the tulip bulbs after the bust, but they ALWAYS want the land.

#47 Devore on 11.18.13 at 11:20 pm

#4 not 1st

He should be manning a toll booth somewhere.

Nice. I see according to you, pretty boy Justin is a shoe in for the next PM. Either way, we certainly deserve the politicians we get.

#48 Nemesis on 11.18.13 at 11:20 pm

TruncatedContinuation/BordeauxFatFinger….

@Homme de Fumer/#10

I take your point – albeit, I respectfully decline to acknowledge YouKnowWho’s fitness for PublicOffice… accordingly – and nevertheless – the following quote is for your delectation…

“In this world I would rather live two days like a tiger, than two hundred years like a sheep.” – [1800 A. Beatson View of Origin and Conduct of War with Tippoo Sultaun x. 153]

Damn!… now Ralph knows with certainty to what devious ends my intellectual curiosity eventually transported me… if not necessarily where.

Ahem… and now for some well deserved OffTopicZen.

Well… Not, actually.

But, to be true – SaltyDogz will inevitably decode the SubText with their usual alacrity….

http://youtu.be/JeRmqS5maBY

[Hint: who’s the guy holding the Baboo? Seriously!? After all those Emmys?]

http://youtu.be/Z4sgoIQKtLM

[Hint: who’s the VoiceOver? GagMeWithASpoon… but Times are DefinitelyHarderThanYouThought]

http://youtu.be/2QMO1SZ0-is

[Hint: “Brilliant machines are transforming the way we work.” Just kidding… the RealHint is Sulu… Why? Figured it out by now?]

LastUp:

http://youtu.be/KfTDfdLF0bc

[Hint: Pay yourself to do what you love? Nope. Love yourself and others enough to do what doesn’t ‘pay’.]

NoteToGT: As the Editor… do you think that last was TooOnTheNose?… Just checking.

#49 Bob Rice on 11.18.13 at 11:38 pm

The GTAs market would probably collapse if down payments were minimized at 10% and 25 years was the absolute max amort. plus NO CMHC. To me, this means a VERY weak and vulnerable “homeowner”. You should NOT buy a home if you don’t have at least 20% down.. preferably 25%. And if you need insurance to back it up, then you need to rent or buy something much smaller and cheaper… I would also increase the amounts of the income to debt ratios used currently by the industry. Home ownership would become a lot more affordable and ownership rates would drop significantly. This industry has been propped up since the post-war. What is the legacy of this policy? Heavily indebted people who will die with debt. Sad.

Read:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/the-rise-of-the-miserable-canadian-homeowner/article15495215/

#50 Shawn on 11.18.13 at 11:40 pm

HOW LARGE A MORTGAGE CAN YOU CARRY?

Jim at 29 said:

Housing markets follow patterns, and the best way to understand valuation is through traditional ratios of price/rent, price/carrying-cost and price/income.

**********************************

Jim back in the 80’s and 90’s (when I bought three houses over the years) the ONLY ratio I ever heard of was carrying cost / income. i.e. Payment /income.

This was restricted to 30% and total debt service ratios or total payments to income was restricted to 40%.

Price to income was never mentioned and is illogical because it is carrying cost to income that matters.

I never hear of any rule of 3 times income until I came to this blog. No bank, to my knowledge, has ever mentioned 3 times income as a max. No such rule exists at CMHC. It’s the carrying costs dude.

Lower interest rates mean you can carry a higher price at a given income hence house prices rose with lower interest rates.

Lower interest rates are a buoyancy force on the prices of ALL financial assets. Has ever been so.

Lower amortization periods are like gravity to house prices since that increases the annual carrying cost.

Gravity is at work even when it does not appear to be.

#51 Spectacle on 11.18.13 at 11:42 pm

Thanks Garth

I see the Ambition of developers ( speculators? ) on a daily basis . If today is the start of their 3-5 year development application process, then let’s imagine that the market dives in 2015, or 2016, but just Enough to Halt their Redevelopment Project.

If the Economy/Banksters deny their Ambition to re-develop that rotten-stick-box ( should I add mouldy?) into four plexes, it’s not a viable business venture. If it all goes Japan style, it will be a
1) disorderly,
2) slow and
3) painful unraveling,
taking 20 to 30 years to find a stable bottom or low.

Got several clients in that gig. This can’t end well for them……

#52 RayofLight on 11.18.13 at 11:54 pm

#4 Not First:
I don’t know a lot about the political motivations of the Toronto Counsel’s vote to remove Rob Ford of his powers. I believe however they should have done what other due processes would have done if there was a question of capability. Hold an election. The people of Toronto voted him in, it should be the people of Toronto that removes him. Rob Ford has issues,yes, but I don’t think it was legal how Toronto Counsel handled it.

#53 Canadian Watchdog on 11.19.13 at 12:01 am

This is what happens when mayors don't side with developers, in this case, Calgary's Mayor Nenshi who referred to Cal "itchy finger" Wenzel's video discussing a plan to defeat members of city council as scene “out of the movie Godfather.”

Nenshi unbowed by Calgary developer’s $6-million defamation suit

And in Toronto's case, someone still needs to find the relation between these words: Rob Ford, developer charges, BILD and Toronto Star.

#54 TurnerNation on 11.19.13 at 12:07 am

I want a job where I can escape for an hour of a day in the woods with a pro drug dealer and a bottle of vodka! #FiscalConservative.

Her career is pointing uppa uppa. Bet she’s glad was not stuck with the Star’s Real Estate beat. A lifetime of fluffing
(and derision by this blog’s dogs. #PigginaPoke )

http://www.chapters.indigo.ca/books/crazy-town-the-rob-ford/9780670068111-item.html?

Life in Kanada by household income levels:

80k = you have $350-400,000 in mortgage, LOC, CC debts.
100k = 500k
120k = 500-600k
150k = 700-1 mill

#55 TurnerNation on 11.19.13 at 12:09 am

^Today’s photo: taken in 905 area, believed to be a Josef passing bigarider’s weekday cage. An attempt at First.
Tach going uppa…

#56 TurnerNation on 11.19.13 at 12:18 am

“…but it’s a lame idea to make the banks’ monopoly stronger at the same time.”

Soo did the idea of bank mergers ever go completely underground?
Let’see, Scotia bought dING.

All we need is a CIBC to submarine, say like they did with Enron debt, and a white (or blue) knight to swoop.
TD’s busy in the USA – don’t bother them.

#57 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 11.19.13 at 12:22 am

#15 bdwy sktrn
new construction of residential homes will not allow doorknobs. only levers.

Well, halle-freakin-lujah. It’s about time. Finally, I will be able to get a door open without having to completely grab some filthy virus/pus-covered cheap flange, or having to dump a bag of groceries down onto the snow first to do it.

#58 Cici on 11.19.13 at 12:53 am

#12 Brendan

They won’t once they get rid of the little guys. Right now they are trying to beat out the competition; once they’re done, watch rates rise.

#59 Tiger on 11.19.13 at 12:54 am

Garth I love that word Ambition , and your blog yesterday very informative on the subject, that is like so foren to me , but will master it soon! Some of the blog dogs comments and questions ?? Hmm! Other one oh yeah I got it babby,do u get it:) favorite , sayings ( don’t forget cause I don’t forget ) people that don’t know what they don’t know, scary ! Oh does every one that is say non conforming , dosent follow the crowd, wealthy mayor councillor etc ! If Einstein were alive today would he be doing crack also ????

#60 Tiger on 11.19.13 at 1:14 am

52 # ray of lite! Assumption , has cost people millions , but don’t really know , just assuming ! Still have my tail, cause bro assumption is a dangerous word in my kingdom!

#61 not 1st on 11.19.13 at 1:16 am

Rob Ford..too fat to sit properly in a chair = too fat to run a city.

Liberal or conservative has got nothing to do with it.

#62 Cyclist on 11.19.13 at 2:09 am

11 bdwy sktrn – hmmm….my house is 11 years old and it’s all levered……….oh and I always ALWAYS ALWAYS
WEAR MY HELMET. You should too.

#63 As Is Old Man on 11.19.13 at 2:20 am

#57 Republic_of_Western_Canada:

‘filthy virus/pus-covered cheap flange’

“pus-covered” – Love it. Made my day, but I think the addition of “fecal encrusted” would perfect it.

#64 Tiger on 11.19.13 at 2:53 am

When you gotta talk about ur self that much !!!! No that’s
Wrong get a life your a talker may be a stalker but weird me out your no Instein , just a smoking fire ! You are aha steer wanna be ! You are ford wanna be maybe ford him self! Or just joe 24 pack I’ve lost all respect for you!
Is that what you want ford your kids if answer is yes guess what I think of you , and many others , just an assumption bro! Did I mention smoking man asshole ideology a winner<

#65 Andrew Woburn on 11.19.13 at 3:09 am

#132 recharts on 11.18.13 at 6:15 pm

What I don;t understand is why with the current money printing the inflation is not going higher. Is that because the money printing and the distribution of these money is selectively directed toward financial institutions ?
=======================================

I have been trying to figure this out also. Here is the explanation that makes the most sense to me so far.

One simple definition of inflation is an increase in money supply relative to productivity. Although US unemployment is high, corporate productivity keeps moving along (largely by cutting labour costs) so any small increase in the overall money supply is being balanced off.

The Fed accounts for less than 20% of the US money supply even today. Normally most money is created by commercial bank loans but the downturn has seriously cut bank lending so the total US money supply is down from past highs. The money printing by the Fed was supposed to try and fill this liquidity gap.

The people who get access to the Fed’s cheap money are major banks and Wall Streeters who can borrow at .05% and invest at 4%-5% in government bonds and get even better rates in developing countries where inflation is raging partly because of the flood of cheap US money. These people are already insanely wealthy so they don’t really increase spending on consumer goods which would trickle down money to labour, they spin their gains into more financial assets like stocks and collectors’ pieces like the recent record $150 million fine art purchase.

Another factor is that classic inflation involves labour costs chasing rising prices in a constant spiral as happened in the seventies. That isn’t about to happen any time soon given the weak job picture. The real current danger is stagflation where wages stagnate while prices creep up.

Over half of US dollars are held outside the US by foreigners who need them to conduct world trade most of which is denominated in USD. As the world moves to trading in other currencies, dollars will return home and may drive domestic inflation. Also a lot of the Fed’s printing has found its way offshore where hot money is creating stress for third world economies. If the US economy picks up, it may find its way back in a hurry.

As far as I can see, fears of general hyperinflation are completely unfounded and there is no real likelihood of even moderate general inflation in the near term. Circumstances could change very quickly though if the world lost its faith in the dollar. However asset inflation is real and is happening right before our eyes.

#66 Tiger on 11.19.13 at 3:12 am

All I say is you on drugs, you are a f up,
Just watch watch the smoking mans! Comments

#67 drydock on 11.19.13 at 4:01 am

Levers rock, knobs are for knobs.

#68 Freedom First on 11.19.13 at 4:27 am

Be interesting to see what F is going to do. I’ve been waiting for it, so thanks for the heads up Garth, as this is the first I have heard it is coming for sure.

Lots of Canadians are going to get burned having bought into this way overpriced Canadian RE market, both homeowners and speculators. I found it very saddening to read about all of the people burned by their own RE markets world wide the last few years. Even sadder, Canadians learned nothing, and I really am dreading what is coming here for so many people, and especially the vulnerable ones I know personally. I have talked to some Americans, and Europeans who went through their RE shellackings, and they and I know this is going to be ugly. I hate it, but I am glad it won’t be me. For the rich people, it will just be another golden buying opportunity, as always, Joe average gets slaughtered. All the time. Every time. No exception. Freedom First.

#69 EIT on 11.19.13 at 6:56 am

http://nypost.com/2013/11/18/census-faked-2012-election-jobs-report/

#70 B KEDDY on 11.19.13 at 7:14 am

If you would give your opinion I would appreciate it on buying TD e-series funds. I have been gradually divesting my accounts in individual stocks and going to these funds-canadian, us, international and canadian bond index funds. My husband and I are in our 70’s, he is still working and we have about 100K in these funds. Do you think these are appropriate? I appreciate this blog and we both read it every day.

Thanks and keep up the good work.

Bond funds may seem safe, but as interest rates rise you will have losses on your hands, and no income. I suggest you chat with someone about a better strategy. — Garth

#71 jerry on 11.19.13 at 7:34 am

If the market value of my house drops below the value of my mortgage at the time of my mortgage renewal, will I have to come up with more down payment in order to renew?

Unlikely. But the lender could choose not to renew. — Garth

#72 maxx on 11.19.13 at 7:41 am

Good news!

Advertisements for “mortgage payment vacations” hot off the press and coming to a msm outlet near you- just in time for Christmas. Woohoooo!

Now, you can rack up your consumer debt to even greater heights and get that 19-drawer tool chest….

Come on Canada, you deserve it!

(pain relievers for the fiscal hangover in January not included). You can buy those on credit too!

#73 Stoopid Idiot on 11.19.13 at 7:43 am

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-18/more-u-s-cities-see-no-economic-growth-this-year-report-says.html

More U.S. Cities See No Economic Growth This Year, Report Says
By Romy Varghese – Nov 19, 2013 4:35 AM GMT+0800
The economies in one third of U.S. metropolitan areas will decline or stagnate this year, worse than in 2012, according to a report prepared for mayors.
Of 363 areas, the economies in 119 will retreat or stay the same, compared with 73 last year, according to the report, released today by the Washington-based U.S. Conference of Mayors.
The U.S. economy was hurt by automatic federal spending cuts known as sequestration, along with a 16-day partial closing of government, according to mayor’s group. Cities are still recovering from the 18-month recession that ended in 2009, the report said.
“We cannot afford manufactured crises like sequestration, the debt ceiling battle and the federal government shutdown,” said Scott Smith, mayor of Mesa, Arizona, and group president, in a statement. “It is important that Washington not return to dysfunction, which has real economic consequences in our cities.”
Two-thirds of cities and surrounding suburbs will see their economies grow, according to the report, which was prepared by IHS Global Insight Inc. Midland, Texas, topped the list, with its economy expanding by 7.3 percent. Odessa, Texas followed at 6.4 percent.
Then there’s this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usahyL0rNNU

#74 maxx on 11.19.13 at 7:44 am

#5 AisA on 11.18.13 at 9:41 pm

“It’s like Wile-E-Coyote going off the cliff while chasing the road runner, but in Matrix style bullet time that never seems to want to end.”

LOL! Best descriptor of this economic farce- EVER!

#75 Bob Rice on 11.19.13 at 7:53 am

Here we go… strap on the belts…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/economy-at-risk-as-demand-cools-for-new-homes/article15499996/

#76 Obvious Truth on 11.19.13 at 7:58 am

Agree on the levers. Especially on exterior doors. And public washrooms.

Mentioned ichan 30 % short. Misread it. He is up 30% but has a huge short was reported on market watch. He Reiterated yesterday that he has hedges on.

#77 George the 7th on 11.19.13 at 7:59 am

Is Smoking Man really Rob Ford? Or vice versa?

Canada and politics, gotta love it …

#78 Mr. Frugal on 11.19.13 at 8:22 am

Thanks to globalization, we live in a world which has surplus labour and insufficient demand to create full employment. This results in deflationary pressure – reducing costs and keeping interest rates low. Some fools will use this cheap credit to bury themselves in debt while others will chose to work hard, avoid debt, save and invest. It seems pretty clear who is going to win this one.

#79 Smoking Man on 11.19.13 at 8:38 am

Ha another call on BS exposed

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/10/04/over-she-goes/

Above link goes to Oct 4 2012 go to post 87.
I made a comment on non farm payrolls.

Now In the NY Post

http://nypost.com/2013/11/18/census-faked-2012-election-jobs-report/

Never bet against a smoking man.

No one sees the future or vets BS as clear as I

Chirp away………

#80 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 11.19.13 at 8:51 am

Boomers will be just fine, at least that’s what the new MSM BS is saying. http://www.thestar.com/business/personal_finance/2013/11/17/the_new_retiree_renovating_and_on_a_spending_spree.html

#81 Ralph Cramdown on 11.19.13 at 8:57 am

#50 Shawn — “Jim back in the 80′s and 90′s (when I bought three houses over the years) the ONLY ratio I ever heard of was carrying cost / income. i.e. Payment /income. This was restricted to 30% and total debt service ratios or total payments to income was restricted to 40%. Price to income was never mentioned and is illogical because it is carrying cost to income that matters.”

I suspect that looking strictly at carrying cost is an unfortunate import from the United States. It makes perfect sense there, because the majority of mortgages have a fixed interest rate for the entire amortization. If you can afford your mortgage on day one, all you have to worry about is job loss.

With rate risk at renewal, typically every five years, a pure payment ratio approach is unwise. Insured mortgages now need to be tested against BoC prime to stop stupid lender behaviour like qualifying borrowers at a 2.75% variable rate…

#82 Question on 11.19.13 at 9:05 am

Why doesn’t F diddle with CMHC rates? Or make it so you have to pay the premium AND have your 5% down payment on closing instead of being able to roll it into the mortgage? Seems like if he doesn’t want people taking on more than they can handle, just set the bar higher!

He wants to choke the market, not kill it. — Garth

#83 TorontoBull on 11.19.13 at 9:24 am

@SM
next time use LFS monthly numbers to support your arguments with caution:
http://www.thestar.com/business/2013/11/18/toronto_jobless_rate_jumps_back_up.html

#84 Herb on 11.19.13 at 9:32 am

Rob Ford is not THE Smoking Man, but he definitely is a Smoking Man!

Andrew Coyne’s summary of Ford’s “limitless ego and unformed character” describes our mutual friend superbly.
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/national/Menace+mayor+mockery+manipulation+message/9181932/story.html

#85 Mortage = debt, so pay it down on 11.19.13 at 10:11 am

Garth, I love your work (now that you feel all warm inside, I will let you have it!), however, I find your fundamental advice to be conflicting. On the one hand, you say that Canadians have too much debt which suggests that they should pay it down. Conversely, you advise them not to pay down their mortgage at these low rates.

The reason why Canadians have so much debt is that they keep renewing their mortgages at higher levels when their Banks tell them to consolidate their non-mortgage debt in their mortgage because the rate is lower. Then once they do that, they naively think they do not have any debts…. “just a mortgage”.

Considering the people you are trying to help (people that should not own a house but insist on having one), tell them to consolidate their debt in a mortgage and tell them to pay it down asap.

Why pay down 2.5% VRM debt when invested money makes 7-8%? All you’re doing is concentrating wealth in a single asset which could turn quite illiquid. Is that smart? — Garth

#86 recharts on 11.19.13 at 10:11 am

@#65 Andrew Woburn

Thanks for the detailed explanation. Much appreciated.
I think that you are right, this will all explode with other players’ increasing tendency to go away from the USD. ‘Don’t bet against America’, “just make sure you don’t depend on it”.

May I understand that we do not see general inflation because the only way the cheap money is made available to the average Joe is via cheap mortgages and for that reason we see just asset inflation?

I think that the Fed’s printing is beyond this, the amount of housing being bought is far less than what they inject into the economy. You are probably right that the banks reinvest the cheap money in emerging economies but that might be partially right.
I don’t see the banks that stupid to loan their money to emerging economies which may or may not pay back the debt.

I keep saying this and I refuse to admit that I am insane: the greater fool game is being played beyond the housing markets. It happens with the stock market and everything else.
It is common sense logic: as long as the world does not advance, the salaries are stagnating, the unemployment is going up I don;t see how some can make 8% without someone losing that money because all in all there is no visible progress, on the contrary.

Short conclusion:
Feed is printing
Investors borrow money, search a fool and they lend him the money
The greater fool will end up with lots of debt because he is spending more that he is making.
This is the RE game just played in a different context

Some pretend that in a general stagnation (let’s not call it yet depression or recession) some assets might flourish returning 8%. And they say this is realistic.
In order for that to be a honest game these must be assets that generate profit based on economic sectors that are constant true recessions. I have no idea what are these sectors but they should be stabile. Let’s just say they exist. A very simplistic ex: everybody needs bread, the baker makes bread, there is a constant demand and a constant profit.
In the current inflated market the problem is that everybody sees that stability and they all want to buy the same safe asset which in turn inflates that asset and they will end up cutting their margin by overpaying for a stable asset.

The above is in short the common sense logic, or reason if you wish, that holds me from buying and that tells me that stock market, indexes and whatever else you might think of is just another greater fool game as long as the world economy stagnates.

Scared people like you have said the same thing since 2009. The markets are ahead 155%. — Garth

#87 anonnnnnnn on 11.19.13 at 10:30 am

keep chasing that dragon garth. YOu and I both know our government’s solution to pack the country with new Canadians is more than sufficent to ride this grand wave until the Dauphine takes power next election.

Then its his problem.

‘Pack the country with new Canadians’? Annual immigration (total) equals 0.75% of the population. BTW, I deleted your other comments about ‘white genocide.’ — Garth

#88 Buy? Curious? on 11.19.13 at 10:35 am

You stupid morons! There will always be bubbles, it’s how the world works! Nortel, Bre-x, dot.com, housing, bitcoin etc, are all examples of bubbles and its ebb and flow is the nature of how money is made. For someone to become rich, there has to be plenty of losers. If you’re not rich, guess what? You’re a loser.

Speaking of a massive collective losers, have you seen how popular Rob Ford is, both in public and in the polls? It just goes to show you the validity of the common international belief that Canadians have an inferiority complex.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGkgpGybVck

#89 Victor V on 11.19.13 at 10:37 am

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/the-rise-of-the-miserable-canadian-homeowner/article15495215/

Consider the financial misery factor before you buy a house.

That’s where the constraints of paying a mortgage and all the other usual costs of living leave you feeling frustrated and unhappy about your finances. Even real estate agents concede that such a phenomenon exists. “It’s been disturbing to watch runaway housing prices weigh down young families, constrain their daily lives, and make it near impossible for children to live in the same city as their parents,” a Toronto realtor said in a recent e-mail.

A poll to be released Tuesday by Manulife Bank amplifies this sense of a home handcuffing you financially. It indicates that almost 30 per cent of homeowners are very unhappy with how they’ve managed their debt and day-to-day finances in 2013, and only 43 per cent are very happy.

#90 WhiteKat on 11.19.13 at 10:38 am

Darn Rob Ford!

He stole all the thunder away from a public demonstration outside the Toronto Metro Convention Centre on Nov 13 and 14, where the Canadian Banker’s Association held their annual conference on Regulatory Compliance for Financial Institutions

Part of the banker’s agenda included a discussion on how to avoid the hurdles of implementing the American law FATCA in Canada.

I was part of the public demonstration. The bankers were really upset to see us, and security made us stand within 18 inches of the curb even though Toronto police tried to reason with them to allow us to stand on the side walk away from busy Toronto traffic.

For those who are unaware, the Canadian Bankers Association is pushing the Canadian government to enforce an American law (FATCA) that violates the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms and throws one million Canadian citizens and their families under the bus.

Canadian and American media were too busy with ‘Ford Nations’ to be bothered with a grassroots protest by Canadians concerned about Canada’s sovereignty, but the Cayman compass picked up on our protest:
http://t.co/SUq0SCZ8O5

#91 Sammie from SK on 11.19.13 at 10:39 am

Interesting read here.

http://mises.org/daily/6591/Are-Bubbles-Caused-by-Psychological-Problems

#92 Smoking Man on 11.19.13 at 10:42 am

DELETED

#93 broadway skytrain on 11.19.13 at 10:48 am

#62 Cyclist on 11.19.13 at 2:09 am
oh and I always ALWAYS ALWAYS
WEAR MY HELMET. You should too.
————————————

Are you worried about your man purse strap getting caught in the spokes?

Sounds like you should also be wearing a bubble wrap suit for walking and using a 5-point harness and motorbike helmet when driving cause, you know, it’s ‘safer’.

just because you are incompetent/nervous/lack confidence/blind or stupid does not mean we need a law for those who are not.

Seeing families and tourists riding pleasantly riding around bearheaded in us cities sure makes our overbearing rules look silly.

#94 recharts on 11.19.13 at 10:49 am

Scared people like you have said the same thing since 2009. The markets are ahead 155%. — Garth

This is exactly the mantra that the RE agents keep repeating. The only difference is that they use an earlier year and a different percentage.

Real estate is one asset. A financial portfolio is a dozen or more, with balance and liquidity. There is no 2008 coming. Stop quivering. — Garth

#95 broadway skytrain on 11.19.13 at 10:52 am

#57 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 11.19.13

… grab some filthy virus/pus-covered cheap flange, or having to dump a bag of groceries down onto the snow first to do it.
——————————-
jesus man, get some lysol on that filthy bedroom door of yours please, and sta

#96 Mortage = debt, so pay it down on 11.19.13 at 10:55 am

#85
Why pay down 2.5% VRM debt when invested money makes 7-8%? All you’re doing is concentrating wealth in a single asset which could turn quite illiquid. Is that smart? — Garth

Absolutely smart Garth but sadly, the Canadians that you are trying to reach are not behaving smartly when it comes to managing their money. If they refused to take your first advice (not buying a house), do we really think they will have the discipline to save/invest?

#97 Flimsy Facadebook on 11.19.13 at 10:56 am

My bet is Icahn’s huge short is Facebook. It’s going waaaay down before the year is done.

#98 Mortage = debt, so pay it down on 11.19.13 at 10:59 am

meant to read “absolutely not smart”
sorry

#99 broadway skytrain on 11.19.13 at 11:09 am

‘Tiger’ – WTF is wrong with you? Your incomprehensible babble makes smokey’s posts seem like they were written by an english professor.

novel concept ‘proofreading’. because we really have no idea what the heck you are saying in most all of your posts.

#100 Victor V on 11.19.13 at 11:10 am

OECD calls for Bank of Canada rate to more than double to 2.25% by end of 2015

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/11/19/oecd-calls-for-bank-of-canada-rate-to-more-than-double-to-2-25-by-end-of-2015/

#101 quiet man on 11.19.13 at 11:11 am

SM:

Wouldnt try to move things out now. The problem is Where ? All Governments are playing from the same playbook.

But the quiet men have done it.

#102 recharts on 11.19.13 at 11:16 am

Scared people like you have said the same thing since 2009. The markets are ahead 155%. — Garth

This is exactly the mantra that the RE agents keep repeating. The only difference is that they use an earlier year and a different percentage.

Real estate is one asset. A financial portfolio is a dozen or more, with balance and liquidity. There is no 2008 coming. Stop quivering. — Garth

For the regular investor 2008 was an experience exacerbated by panic.
This blog is focused on the regular investor.
While 2008 had a different magnitude for institutional investors the regular investor should have kept his calm and hold the assets they were owning (as you did advice around here)
Since we are talking about the regular investor here I don’t see why we would expect catastrophic loses in an instant for the regular investor in the coming period. It is going to be just a slow correction (at best) or rather an accelerated correction with a very slow recovery. That would be because coming to reality might be a cold shower but fixing chronic problems like the view that we can make 8% out of nothing takes time.

Takes time to switch from the paradigm “let’s bet on housing market, stocks and ETF etc” to the paradigm “I have surplus, let start a business and create some value”

For the above reasons the recovery will take time and who buys now (stocks, indexes, ETFs etc) might be in for a long wait before reaching that 8%. Even if you make this money this year in the long term this is not going to fly simply because generally speaking there is no 8% progress around you in the economy. Not even 2% ..so who will generate the money that you make? Another fool. You will jut hope that you are not that greater fool.

Sorry Garth but this is how I see the world. :-)

You will have another ironical-humorous response to the above (and I am fine with that) but you will never be able to explain how some will make 8% profit without profiting from the mistakes made by greater fool.

#103 Spiltbongwater on 11.19.13 at 11:17 am

Does Rob Fords face turn red when he is lieing? With Peter Mansbridge yesterday, his face was very red after he said the last time he did illegal drugs was when he smoked crack for the first time.

#104 Ronaldo on 11.19.13 at 11:21 am

I think even Garth would agree that this would be a very liquid investment and a no brainer.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/domtar-buys-indas-aims-leading-supplier-adult-diapers-150156140–finance.html

#105 Victor V on 11.19.13 at 11:21 am

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/11/18/further-mortgage-rule-tightening-will-hurt-quebec-minister-warns/

MONTREAL/OTTAWA – Quebec Finance Minister Nicolas Marceau is urging the Harper government to tread carefully before clamping down more on the housing market, warning that any further tightening could seriously hurt Canada’s second-largest province.

“Quebec’s residential real estate market is currently in balance,” Mr. Marceau said in a written statement Monday following a speech to a business conference in Montreal.

“Further tightening of mortgage rules could have negative consequences on this market and on the Quebec economy,” Mr. Marceau said, noting that spending on residential construction accounts for about 7% of Quebec’s gross domestic product.

Jim Flaherty, federal finance minister, said last week he is prepared to act to cool Canada’s housing market once again if needed. He identified near-record consumer debt and buoyant residential real estate as the top domestic threats right now to economic growth.

#106 HD on 11.19.13 at 11:27 am

#48 Nemesis on 11.18.13 at 11:20 pm
TruncatedContinuation/BordeauxFatFinger….
@Homme de Fumer/#10…………..
————————-
Nemesis, respectfully, your translation doesn’t make any sense.

First off, it all depends what Smoking Man means by ‘Smoking Man’.
If it is ‘Good looking man’, then it would go something like this:

Bel Homme (proper French), Beau Pétard (Québec French), Beau Gosse (French French)

Note that they aren’t any direct translation available so they are many ways to say it.

Now, if Smoking means ‘Man who smokes’ like you seem to imply, it would go something like this:

L’homme qui fume

Or, if Smoking means ‘Man in smokes literally’, it would go something like this:

L’homme en fumé.

Hope that helps.

1 more thing. Any idea of when VREAA is coming back?

Best,

HD

#107 -=jwk=- on 11.19.13 at 11:31 am

“The guy does his job extremely well” -1 for SM.

His job is leadership, reconciliation, negotiating and moving the council herd to get things done. Blustering and bullying for stupid subways isn’t ‘doing his job’. Pitching ferris wheels isn’t part of it either…

#108 TS on 11.19.13 at 11:54 am

I think I said it before:
Soon, that $500,000 house will be sold for $875,000
and that $875,000 house will be sold for $1.2 Million.

Nothing short of a nuclear war is going to slow this crazy Canadian housing market, NOTHING.

Ever heard of Blackberry? — Garth

Is it necessary? Heard of Nortel. NOTHING.

His reference was to houses in Waterloo. Nortel was not a major local employer. — Garth

#109 TnT on 11.19.13 at 12:34 pm

For those who need to park their TFSA’s in cash while the market peaks then have a look here:

3% HISA – no fees – CDIC insured – Online

http://www.peoplestrust.com/high-interest-accounts/tax-free-accounts/tax-free-savings-account/

Set it up Jan 2nd and be ready to pounce on the next market bust….

Wow. 3%. That $2 a day on $25,000. — Garth

#110 NoName on 11.19.13 at 12:35 pm

#88 Buy? Curious? on 11.19.13 at 10:35 am

Can you define rich for me plz. Maybe I am rich I just don’t know that yet.

#111 LP on 11.19.13 at 1:10 pm

#106 HD on 11.19.13 at 11:27 am

I think you forgot “man who blows smoke” – but I don’t know how to say it.

#112 Rocko on 11.19.13 at 1:13 pm

Calgary resale home average prices to balloon to more than half a million dollars

Report says average to hit $517,016 in 2017

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Calgary+resale+home+prices+forecast+eclipse+half+million+dollars+2017/9183779/story.html

The Herald is such a rag.

#113 World Traveller on 11.19.13 at 1:16 pm

#10 Smoking Man on 11.18.13 at 9:57 pm

The guy does his job extremely well. He’s an ass in private life. The schooled being trained and bred to zero in and mob odd behavior

uh no, wrong!!

http://www.thestar.com/yourtoronto/robford/2013/11/08/deconstructing_mayor_rob_fords_fiscal_record.html

http://www.thegridto.com/city/politics/rob-fords-billion-dollar-lie/

I can post more, but you have Google like everything else, don’t let facts get in the way of your argument.

#114 Shawn on 11.19.13 at 1:20 pm

Definition of Rich…

No name at 110 asked for a definition.

********************

Rich is defined as people who make at least two to three times more than you do (does not matter what you make). Also if you have substantial financial assets, then those with at least 2 to 3 times more are rich. People with a house valued at least 2 to 3 times more than you are also rich.

So, you see, you are not rich and you better get back to work and save and invest more because it will take at least another decade or probbaly two or three before you catch up to whatever your definition of rich is as of today. But by then you will have mentally moved the goal posts and you will not be rich then either. But keep going, it is the chase that is most enjoyable.

#115 DreamingInTechnicolour on 11.19.13 at 1:20 pm

This is how it is done in other countries:

http://cnbusinessnews.com/hong-kong-raises-down-payments-on-home-loans-to-cool-real-estate-market/#axzz2l74H2WUF

#116 Casual Observer on 11.19.13 at 1:24 pm

He wants to choke the market, not kill it. — Garth

The gov’t is trying to cool the market from the demand side, but what about coming at it from the supply side?

Homeowners who have huge un-realized gains in RE might be persuaded to sell sooner if a capital gains tax on principal residences was phased in over the next few years.

This could provide some needed revenue and (hopefully) bring more supply onto the market.

There could be an exemption for the first 200K (or whatever appropriate amount) of gains. Most likely, those with huge gains would opt to sell before the full tax is implemented.

I never thought that I would be recommending a new tax to help solve anything, but tax policy does tend to influence human behaviour.

It would have to be well thought out in order to minimize loop holes, like selling and re-purchasing to reset the cost base, and other unintended consequences, but perhaps it could work.

Why should all those gains from a RE market that’s been supported by all taxpayers (through CMHC and tax breaks) be tax free?

Come to think of it, why are lottery winnings tax free, while working wages are taxed?

I better stop before I get myself in trouble.

#117 happity on 11.19.13 at 1:44 pm

So what’s with the USA economic renaissance jobs scandal brought to light just recently?

Oh that, the recovery that never was.

So how is it stocks kept rising?

Oh that, well the fed keeps printing.

So the stock market is another bubble?

Not according to the fed, but then they said the same thing about every other bubble…

#118 omg on 11.19.13 at 1:44 pm

3 points here

1) yea!! to more concentration of the bank industry – the only way to feel good about our banking sector is to own it.

2) pretty hard for the RE sector to whine against more regs from F to cool the housing market when the RE “black box statistics generator” shows housing charging ever higher. They make their bed and they will have to lie in it.

3) F’s minions are brilliant if they have truly constructed such an obscure way to make mortgage rates increase. Given MSM’s 12 second sound bite limit on reporting there is no way they can explain it to the average guy – so F gets none of the blame for making houses more expensive for the poor first time buyer.

#119 clearasday on 11.19.13 at 1:59 pm

Gee …and I wonder why TD Bank stock is up over 1700% since I started buying at $14 so many years ago? Pushing $100 towards another split ( I can’t remember how many times this has happened) sometime soon.

Theres no way the organ grinders are going to crater the economy before the next election……zero rates and smooth sailing on all fronts at least until then.

#120 clearasday on 11.19.13 at 2:01 pm

BTW…the BitCoin cratered $400 overnight

#121 Ralph Cramdown on 11.19.13 at 2:03 pm

recharts, I don’t know why you think the economy needs to grow at 8% for my portfolio to grow at 8%.

Say I’ve got a stock that’s already paying 5%. That’s 5% in a year. Now every year, they manage to grow the business by 3% through some combinations of higher prices and more customers buying more product. So their profits grow and they increase the dividend by 3%. Now they’re paying 5.15%, except people decide they want to own a bit more of this, and bid the price up by 3% so it only yields 5 again. Who made 8%? Me.

Now say we enter a low growth period. Everybody’s depressed, including you. Stocks are unpopular, everybody would rather own bonds paying 3%, and this stock sinks until it’s paying 5.5%. Management always tries to give the market what it wants, so they issue $1 billion in ten year bonds paying 3%, tax deductible, and buy back $1 billion in stock that they had to pay 5.5% on in after tax dollars. Who makes an extra $25 million in saved dividends plus $6 million in saved taxes per year? The company. Who are they going to share it with? Me, and the other stockholders who didn’t sell.

#122 HD on 11.19.13 at 2:06 pm

#111 LP on 11.19.13 at 1:10 pm

#106 HD on 11.19.13 at 11:27 am
I think you forgot “man who blows smoke” – but I don’t know how to say it.

That would be:

L’homme qui souffle de la fumé ;)

Best,

HD

#123 Rexx Rock on 11.19.13 at 2:13 pm

Just read that Calgary’s house price will rise over 4.5% over the next 4 years.Looks like sfh there is a safe investment for next 4 years.I wonder why garth didn”t mention to load up in sfh in certain areas in Canada for great returns a few years ago to benefit his blog readers.We were told to get out but should have got in.

So get in. It’s a sure thing. It was in the Herald! — Garth

#124 recharts on 11.19.13 at 2:41 pm

You had it wrong right at the beginning.
That assumes a healthy consumer without skyrocketing depbt
As far as I remember Walmart is resizing
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-19/wal-marts-response-weakest-holiday-season-2009-98-tvs

Rona did the same, Target is disappointed , heinz is moving out of Ca and the examples could continue
Why are we willing to consider these as bad news for RE but not for stocks, indexes and so on?
Consummer sentiment down …check the EU stats as well if you wish
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-25/consumer-sentiment-in-u-s-dropped-to-10-month-low-in-october.html

The employment is at least in a dubious state in UE and US, I do not count Canada because it does not matter in this game …what else?

If you want to look back at financials and you like to say they are up X% then why can the RE do the same for houses?

All in all I sense a double measure here but hey, it is a free world, we have to deal with it!

recharts, I don’t know why you think the economy needs to grow at 8% for my portfolio to grow at 8%.

Say I’ve got a stock that’s already paying 5%. That’s 5% in a year. Now every year, they manage to grow the business by 3% through some combinations of higher prices and more customers buying more product. So their profits grow and they increase the dividend by 3%. Now they’re paying 5.15%, except people decide they want to own a bit more of this, and bid the price up by 3% so it only yields 5 again. Who made 8%? Me.

#125 Suede on 11.19.13 at 2:44 pm

HAM ALERT, speaking of Lambos

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/cto/4185946557.html

He’ll take a minimum trade of $200k, so sell him your lane home in East Van and pay the rest in cash

#126 bill on 11.19.13 at 2:45 pm

#120 clearasday on 11.19.13 at 2:01 pm

BTW…the BitCoin cratered $400 overnight
what a surprise!

#127 Toronto_CA on 11.19.13 at 2:50 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canadian-housing-26-overvalued-fitch-says-1.2432265

Fitch disagrees with the Calgary Herald.

Actually they sound a lot like Garth. A correction then a long slow melt will get us reversion to the mean.

#128 Vamanos Pest on 11.19.13 at 3:03 pm

#109 TnT
Careful my friend. “staying in cash until the market tops” is classic attempt to time the market. In most cases it is a loser’s game. I’m not saying you can’t do it, perhaps you do have the advanced technical analysis skills to get it right more often then not.

Why not take a much easier approach, take position in balanced portfolio (this will lower overall portfolio risk even if stocks are toppy) and dollar cost average in on a PREDETERMINED entry schedule (an entry schedule “to be determined” is really also just timing the market). This has less upside then you’re approach (if you get it right) but waaaayyyyyyy less risk.

I’m not attacking you or your approach, just a friendly caution. Best of luck out there.

#129 Seeing it from both sides on 11.19.13 at 3:05 pm

#109
For those who need to park their TFSA’s in cash while the market peaks then have a look here:

3% HISA – no fees – CDIC insured – Online

http://www.peoplestrust.com/high-interest-accounts/tax-free-accounts/tax-free-savings-account/

Set it up Jan 2nd and be ready to pounce on the next market bust….

Wow. 3%. That’s $2 a day on $25,000. — Garth

—————

That’s not much different than what you get from reit index XRE bought at the high 6 months ago. Except with XRE, you’ve lost 14% of your $25,000 principal to-date.

The REIT held outside the TFSA pays you tax-free return of capital, and at a rate of 4-7% depending on the asset (XRE currently yields 5.02%). HISA interest is taxable at your marginal rate. No contest there. More importantly, anyone buying a REIT ETF to hold for six months needs some serious help. — Garth

#130 Mr. Frugal on 11.19.13 at 3:11 pm

All Garth is saying is that you need to diversify. Sure go ahead and buy some real estate but not at the expense of everything else. If you won $2M in the lottery would you buy a $500K house and invest the rest or would you go large and buy a $2M mansion? This seems simple because the dollar value is so large. But, the same logic applies to everyone. If you spend everything on real estate you have nothing left to invest. And that means that you will miss out on an opportunity to have your money work for you.

#131 not 1st on 11.19.13 at 4:35 pm

The minimum qualification for being mayor of any major city?

Being able to close the top button on your dress shirt.

#132 Nemesis on 11.19.13 at 5:02 pm

@BroadWaySkyTrain/#93…

SuchMirth! I really must make my way back to Texas one day… my only prior exposure have been limited to a desultory glimpse of the Houston airport’s bronze homage to BushSr…

@HD/#106+122

Bibulous lashings of Chateau Grand Renom 2011 have been known to adversely affect contemporaneous transliteration… Alternatively, how about these OverCaffeinated alternatives: Fumée Enveloppait l’Homme ou Homme du Tabagisme… [Ooh! I quite like that last one – sounds rather naughty!]…

As to VREAA being MIA, I really don’t know… it’s a lot of work running these InterWebsBloggy things – that said, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it was more a “when” than an “if” thang… of course, first he’ll have to escape from his captors’ lair deep within the JunglesOfColumbia…

I’ve thought about springing him, “Expendables” style – but until I can afford to get my CSR-110’s WrightCyclones rebuilt I’m afraid that VREAA’s just going to have to wait….

http://tinyurl.com/mwjyow2

And now for some RealZen… A Guardian OpED on…. yes, him [ChortleChortle!]…

[UK Guardian] – The political brilliance of Rob Ford:
The Toronto mayor took hard drugs and admitted it – and still the voters are fond of him. His ‘typical guy’ act has revealed Canada’s renegade side

…”Former New York mayoral candidate Anthony Weiner couldn’t weather his scandals because no one liked him, Palin faded away because she and her family decided being celebrities looked more fun than politics. Ford, though, has managed to weather allegations of racial slurs, sexual harassment, threatening behaviour and substance abuse because, he suggested, he was one of them. Ford convinced the city that being “one of them” meant acting like a drunken fratboy. Who knew so many people in Toronto had such low self-esteem?”…

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/19/rob-ford-toronto-mayor-drugs

[NoteToSelf: Pitch MikeMyers on resurrecting “FatBastard” – albeit, with a new ‘twist’.]

#133 Smoking Man on 11.19.13 at 5:07 pm

Watching face book, pro or against Ford a clear pattern has emerged.

The young hate the guy, Old will vote for him.

The youth naive, newly schooled…

They don’t see the monster spenders within the likes of Wynn, Vaughn, Al Gore.. Types.

Some Bombers are in tune, we have been around, we see through their school teacher decorum, and know they are hunting our wallets.

The youth will pay dearly, while a few of us old shits slowly diversify our loot from there greedy entitled paws.

Now go buy a Star go to the Real Estate section and get a condo.

#134 Crackservatives on 11.19.13 at 5:26 pm

Rob ford and Harper are two crackservatives that need to go. When crackservatives make a decision that makes you wonder “what were they thinking?” you can now understand that they are CRACK HEADS which is why conservatives would be best called Crackservatives . Rob Ford maybe the guy to cause Toronto RE market to crash as investors from all over the world not only STOP investing in Crackonto but pull their investment out of Toronto which is now known around the would as Crack city or crackonto.

#135 jess on 11.19.13 at 5:29 pm

Fellow Zillionaires ?

Fix the Debt is a PR and lobby machine launched in 2012 and led by more than 135 CEOs of major corporations.

Have a look at the ‘Fix the Debt CEOs ” restirement nesteggs …

While gilding their personal pensions, many Roundtable CEOs have allowed massive deficits to grow in their employee retirement funds

•Of the Business Roundtable CEOs whose firms provide pension funds for their workers, 10 have deficits in these funds of between $4.9 billion and $22.6 billion.
•The Roundtable CEO with the largest deficit in his company’s worker pension fund is Jeffrey Immelt of General Electric, with $22.6 billion. Immelt’s personal retirement fund is worth more than $59 million, the sixth-largest among Roundtable CEOs.
Download the full report (PDF).

http://www.ips-dc.org/reports/platinum_plated_pensions

#136 jess on 11.19.13 at 5:33 pm

Luxury developers find ‘affordable’ way to dodge property taxes …nypost.com/…/luxury-developers-find-affordable-way-to-dodge-propert…‎Cached3 days ago – Thanks to Albany, luxury developers may dodge property taxes in exchange … perk as well — its residents stand to pay no property taxes for 10 years. … which could go to programs that benefit the entire city, really offset by a

#137 jess on 11.19.13 at 5:38 pm

Developers of this luxury apartment building secured a 421-a tax exemption by designating 20 percent of the units — 166 of 835 apartments — as affordable housing. A market-rate one-bedroom, one-bath unit on the 21st floor rents for $3,495. The benefit will last 20 years, expiring in 2031.

http://nypost.com/2013/11/16/fancy-properties-with-big-tax-exemptions/

======
Children from humble beginnings are less likely to make great gains in wealth and social status and 70 percent won’t ever reach the middle class, according to a Pew study. more
http://www.pewstates.org/projects/economic-mobility-project-328061

#138 jess on 11.19.13 at 5:43 pm

“HMRC has beaten Versteegh, Commercial Estates Group and Westbury at the First Tier Tribunal (FTT) in a case involving a complex tax avoidance scheme which replaced interest on a loan between two companies in the same group with shares issued to a third entity.”
/www.accountancylive.com

#139 Canadian Watchdog on 11.19.13 at 5:51 pm

About those job numbers last year.

Officials to investigate claims Census Bureau manipulated jobs figures

The US Department of Labor has launched an investigation into reports that some of the numbers in the government’s monthly jobs report – one of the world’s closest watched economic indicators – may have been fabricated in the run-up to the 2012 election.

According to The New York Post, the issues center around the politically charged release of job figures towards end the 2012 presidential campaign. From August to September that year, the unemployment rate fell sharply, from 8.1% to 7.8%…

Confidential documents obtained by the Post say census employee Julius Buckmon was caught faking results for the Philadelphia region, one of six regions that used to generate the monthly unemployment poll.

You're going to see lots more of this over the years regarding GDP, CPI and everything else the government fabricates.

#140 jess on 11.19.13 at 6:06 pm

liar loans -jp the largest FIRREA penalty in history

“Without a doubt, the conduct uncovered in this investigation helped sow the seeds of the mortgage meltdown,” said Attorney General Eric Holder. “JPMorgan was not the only financial institution during this period to knowingly bundle toxic loans and sell them to unsuspecting investors, but that is no excuse for the firm’s behavior. The size and scope of this resolution should send a clear signal that the Justice Department’s financial fraud investigations are far from over. No firm, no matter how profitable, is above the law, and the passage of time is no shield from accountability. I want to personally thank the RMBS Working Group for its tireless work not only in this case, but also in the investigations that remain ongoing.”

The settlement includes a statement of facts, in which JPMorgan acknowledges that it regularly represented to RMBS investors that the mortgage loans in various securities complied with underwriting guidelines. Contrary to those representations, as the statement of facts explains, on a number of different occasions, JPMorgan employees knew that the loans in question did not comply with those guidelines and were not otherwise appropriate for securitization, but they allowed the loans to be securitized – and those securities to be sold – without disclosing this information to investors. This conduct, along with similar conduct by other banks that bundled toxic loans into securities and misled investors who purchased those securities, contributed to the financial crisis…

…The settlement does not absolve JPMorgan or its employees from facing any possible criminal charges

http://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/2013/November/13-ag-1237.html

#141 World Traveller on 11.19.13 at 6:09 pm

#133 Smoking Man on 11.19.13 at 5:07 pm
Watching face book, pro or against Ford a clear pattern has emerged.

The young hate the guy, Old will vote for him.

The youth naive, newly schooled…

Wrong again SM!! don’t you get tired of being wrong?

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/mitch-wolfe/rob-ford_b_4276506.html

#142 World Traveller on 11.19.13 at 6:15 pm

#133 Smoking Man on 11.19.13 at 5:07 pm

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/2010/10/24/face_it_torontonians_miller_time_was_good.html

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/11/08/chris-selley-theres-nothing-essential-about-rob-fords-tepid-fiscal-record/

SM, you must get tired of being smacked down as you post from your mother’s basement.

#143 some blogger wrote on 11.19.13 at 6:22 pm

“I prefer a drunk Rob Ford to a sober Olivia Chow”

#144 some other blogger wrote on 11.19.13 at 6:24 pm

Rob Ford was drunk? So was Churchill, and he won WWII

#145 HD on 11.19.13 at 6:27 pm

@ #132 Nemesis on 11.19.13 at 5:02 pm

lol.

Thanks for the info.

Best,

HD

#146 Smoking Man on 11.19.13 at 7:06 pm

#139 Canadian Watchdog on 11.19.13 at 5:51 pm

My comment on it last year. 2 minutes after the announcement.
………………………………………………………….
#87 Smoking Man on 10.05.12 at 9:14 am

Skynet is real
NFP. Fudged. Machine just gave Obama the win
Sept NFP always down. 114K. Ba hahahaha
Rommy has got to be freaking.
……………………………………………….

Not bad for an insane dude is it.

In fact got an email today from some bay street dudes that want to hire me, not for my coding but my calls, had a long talk on the phone, they have been following my stuff here for a few years. They made a fortune on my bond call in Sept.

Worried about Down the road. They should be.

Two problems with the offer.

And it aint the money they offered. HUGE

I would need to stop my personal trading.

I would need to stop blogging about markets, I could continue to be the village idiot on here.

What to do? I don’t need the loot.

But I am a blog addict, and I might slip up. Is there rehab for blogging?

So if all of a sudden my blog goes blank, and you see nothing here. You know what happened.
……………………..

#147 Knickerbockers Knosty on 11.19.13 at 7:14 pm

#133 Smoking Man on 11.19.13 at 5:07 pm — “The youth will pay dearly, while a few of us old shits slowly diversify our loot from there greedy entitled paws.”

So true, and they will pay hard. The whole evolution thingameedoodoo is changing so quickly now, and politicos like this don’t help. It’s a new age, run by and for corporations. Good post.

#148 rainclouds on 11.19.13 at 7:30 pm

#[email protected] SM

you are an interesting study in a train wreck sort of way………

refreshing to see someone with such a vast empire and articulate diction has so much time to troll this pathetic blog on a constant basis…we are all grateful

on a related note i see the only credible member of tubby’s caucus has called for fatty to go away

given my abundance of free time (lots of dough, don’t work) must go to my yoga class, many babes in spandex.

keep that brilliance coming!

#149 bdwy sktrn on 11.19.13 at 7:37 pm

“my computer beat me at checkers, but i’m pretty sure i will beat it at kickboxing”

———————————–
how do i get my kid’s gr 7 teacher to stop giving out lists of spelling words with misspelled words?

#150 Daisy Mae on 11.19.13 at 8:15 pm

#93 Broadway Skytrain: “Seeing families and tourists riding pleasantly riding around bearheaded in us cities sure makes our overbearing rules look silly.”

********************

My neighbour was wearing his helmet, flew over the handlebars, cracked his helmet, spent weeks in the hospital.

Without the helmet, he’d be DEAD.

#151 Smoking Man on 11.19.13 at 8:25 pm

Connecting to the UCC and looking at my herdomiter, and a few charts, something huge is going to happen in the markets. HUGE and soon.

And I will share but I need all the dudes in here that tote man purses to say.

“Smoking Man we are not worthy o great oracle”

Advise us please. O great Smoking Man

#152 TnT on 11.19.13 at 8:25 pm

#128 Vamanos Pest

Thanks for the advise.

I’m all set, was just throwing it out there for those who have to be in cash right now. The theme from the posters today seem they feel the market is too bubbly to get in.

#153 EB on 11.19.13 at 8:37 pm

I think SM should malign education a few more times, before anyone starts wondering about the frequency with which the issue appears to weigh on his mind.

#154 Smoking Man on 11.19.13 at 8:58 pm

Vlad Every reporter following Ford no one around to cover TPP, only the Aussies get it.

TPP MSM you can always count on them to go after

Odd ball fat guys…………..

But
Big life changing political stories that will effect us all.

we are to busy…………..

#155 Cyclist on 11.19.13 at 10:06 pm

93 BS – tourists? Man Purse? Riding pleaseantly? You have me confused with someone else. I try to ride the thing as fast as I can – which can mean 70+kph donwhills and group sprints at 50k+. I wear the helmet because it is a good idea, not because it is the law. I wore it before it was the law. Is it still the law in BC?