Disorderly

cement

“This popped into our mail box the other day,” Wendy says of the flyer she snapped below. When it did, she could think of only two words: disorderly unwinding. It’s what I told you yesterday the Bank of Canada is sweating about these days – that consumers will eventually blow up after pigging out on houses and debt.

Take a look at the pitch for this new development in an outlying burb of Fordlandia. Fifty grand reductions. No interest on financing for three years. No bank approval. Inventory clearance.

“On the face of it,” she says, “anyone with a pulse can buy this with 0% financing for three years, but if people were so keen to drive five minutes east to save 50 grand, there wouldn’t be any inventory, would there?”

That’s right. Maybe we’ve run out of people with pulses. New home sales in the nation’s biggest market have collapsed, running 31% below the ten-year average and down 26% compared to 2012, according to the industry.

FLYER1

But how does this developer desperation square with the sizzling stats that realtors continue to churn? Happened again on Friday. CREA scored the usual big headlines (“Average house price in Canada rises 8% to $391,820” – CBC) with its monthly presser trumpeting that both sales and prices jumped 8% year/year.

But all is not exactly rosy. October sales were off more than 3% from September, which is a hefty drop. And this comes on word that new home prices have started to sag, while building starts decline. Meanwhile news of giant job cuts, from energy (Encana) to tech (Blackberry) to sticky red stuff (Heinz), underscores the grim fact that without income, mortgages turn ugly.

CREA’s nemesis, ex-realtor Ross Kay, once again smells a rat. The real estate cartel, he claims is “creating a false impression that the market is busier than it actually is.” House prices are not catapulting higher because of more demand or buyer confidence, he argues, but rather because listings have been shrinking.

“The already low level of single family houses, that are actually available to be purchased under traditional financing requirements, was further reduced in October of this year,” he says. “It has been a very trying year for home buyers and October 2013 only further added RISK to the home buying experience as prices continued to rise disproportionate to historical norms.”

Of course, CREA says phooey. Sales and prices have jumped this fall, according to the cartel’s chief economist, because buyers panicked over mortgage rates. “October’s lower activity provides early evidence confirming that sales in the later summer and early fall were boosted by homebuyers with pre-approved mortgages at lower than current interest rates jumping into the market before their pre-approvals expired,” says Gregory Klump, who apparently hates me. Or maybe it’s pity. Hard to tell.

The fact is, October was the first month in seven that sales declined. Price increases have also fizzled away. And Kay is correct about the number of available homes on the resale market. It’s shrinking. That’s created a narrow band of intense competition for homes selling for less than a million (the cut-off point for CMHC insurance), which generates media attention and creates the patina of a gonzo market.

Like 189 Grace Street, for example.

GRACE

The ugly house in Toronto’s Little Italy district was listed for $849,000. Ten days later the sellers sat one evening with Graham Connaughton, their agent, and reviewed 16 offers. They picked the highest one, which was $1.12 million. “We all knew it was going over, but to go over by 30% – that’s amazing,” he said.

And the buyers, who paid $271,000 more than the sellers asked for, to snare a house that needs work? “They’re very happy.”

Strangely enough, like Wendy, I can’t get those words ‘disorderly unwinding’ out of my mind. Try as they might, realtors cannot make the case that this is a normal, healthy, balanced or sustainable market.

Household debt rises every single month, and mortgages are off the chart – sitting near $1.2 trillion. With every new deal, rising real estate values embed risk and convince more fools that housing rocks. And yet last month 22,000 jobs were lost in the private sector. We had positive job numbers only because 47,000 new civil servants were hired. There are 1.35 million people out of work, and the labour participation rate is the lowest in a decade. Wage increases are less than inflation. And 42% of employed people have no savings.

What to do? Don’t be disorderly. Come back here in two days.

179 comments ↓

#1 Kurt on 11.15.13 at 9:19 pm

Garth, you have said many times “correction, followed by slow melt”. Is it possible that you may change that assessment? I think you are still correct, but enough more government and market silliness might change that…

#2 not 1st on 11.15.13 at 9:19 pm

“Household debt rises every single month, and mortgages are off the chart – sitting near $1.2 trillion.”

That may be just the tip of the iceberg because lots of people used HELOCs to fund down-payments for themselves and their kids. Some people use credit cards. I know mortgages are tracked but I would be interested to know how much total debt is sitting against real estate? I bet its a few bill more than reported.

#3 shane on 11.15.13 at 9:28 pm

Garth, why come back in 2 days??

#4 Sherwood Park on 11.15.13 at 9:32 pm

According to TransUnion the average Albertan “adult” is now carrying over 35k in non mortgage debt. This number shocks the hell out of me. With the foot now clearly off the economic gas peddle there is no imminent need for interest rates to rise. So we will continue to add toys for boys to the garage. It shan’t be long before that 35k jumps to 37 or 40k. And then what? When the debt bubble pops it’s going to be ugly. Kijiji will be the busiest website in the province as the Great Unload washes out basements and garages. Don’t turn that channel folks. It will be as interesting to watch as the Fordashians.

#5 Smoking Man on 11.15.13 at 9:35 pm

The ugly house in Toronto’s Little Italy district was listed for $849,000. Ten days later the sellers sat one evening with Graham Connaughton, their agent, and reviewed 16 offers. They picked the highest one, which was $1.12 million. “We all knew it was going over, but to go over by 30% – that’s amazing,” he said.

Same herd that is lynching Ford.

#6 Smoking Man on 11.15.13 at 9:36 pm

The Making of a Good Citizen.

Attention Students attention, this is an announcement from your soft spoken authority figure with a big stick in the office.

By the decree dictated by the mob you have just witnessed our lynching of the mayor of Toronto. He is not one of us, he is different, he’s fat, and wont listen to orders. We can’t have this. And you better fall into place of this will happen to you.

His unique behavior, independent thinking and EGO, Oh that retched EGO must be crushed, If other dogs realized that they can change their lives for the better by growing an EGO who would serve me coffee, shine my shoes, or fix my computer.

It will never be tolerated in this class, you are not special, you never will be, you must always remember you place.

For you are a dog amongst other dogs, we are training you to be a dog you will be a dog your entire life or other dogs we have trained will hunt you down in a pack and eat you.

We need not lift a finger.

It matters not that your marks and work are good. You will comply, bend on knee and kiss our ring when ever we demand it. Got it Dog?

“But Mr. School Master all the other councilors, lie once in a while, they probably all smoked weed at some point, probably drank and drove once or twice, and many have cheat on there spouses. The friends they have at Queens Park wasted billions and who knows where or who’s pockets some of that end it up in.
By the way where is Mr. Dalt Pinocchio?”

Quite Dog this is none of your concern, the people at queens park demonstrate the appropriate behavior, they won’t face consequences, How they score on tests or perform do not matter, is irrelevant.
Behavior and knowing your place is all that matters, we are entitled to lift our nose at you and other dogs at will while you are paying taxes to us your entire life pathetic life.
But we don’t ‘trust you. We are going to take it off your check before you can get your dirty paws on it. Dogs can’t be trusted. Oh and if we need to we will just take your pension.

Complain about it. look what we just did to the Mayor. So scared are the other trained dogs, they are afraid to even say hi to him because the fear the pack will turn on them.

Jr SM it is time for you to kiss my ring, on your knees dog.

“F you Mr. School master.

Stick this man purse up your arrs, I don’t need it

I quitting this class and starting a business. “

I’m a MAN

A SMOKING MAN

#7 Drill Baby Drill on 11.15.13 at 9:41 pm

There is a serious lack of common sense in the GTA market. People must be going in as partners on these overpriced pieces of crap. I know this pathetic blog tries to explain the reasoning people would use to justify spending such as this but I am gobsmacked at the insanity.

#8 Suede on 11.15.13 at 9:41 pm

Dow Jones just posted it’s highest weekly closing ever, breaking resistance.

Oh mon dieu.

Who needs mls.ca when you have stockwatch.com

$1.12M for that house. Wow, what is wrong with people!?

#9 Pulp Faction on 11.15.13 at 9:45 pm

Tick, tock, tick, tock…..

#10 aardvark Phartz on 11.15.13 at 9:46 pm

Frankenumbers all around! Let’s have a bloodbath shortly, just figure out how many jobs must be lost to global trade to start the selling in earnest.

Let’s see the Mayor’s plan to rehabilitate a moribund economy mired in debt.

After 5 years it is high time for a good correction, recession, depression, desperation event.

#11 UN-EMPLOYED on 11.15.13 at 9:49 pm

I’ve been unemployed for 8 months and I don’t own a house with a giant mortgage, thank God.

#12 World According To Garth on 11.15.13 at 9:51 pm

47,000 new govt vampires sucking what little money the working poor have and getting a 1 million dollar pension when they retire. Awesome.

#13 DR on 11.15.13 at 9:53 pm

I am Pretty sure I found where all the people that didn’t buy any real estate in the past ten years all hang out

#14 blase on 11.15.13 at 9:54 pm

Same house in St. Thomas goes for $125,000. So 10x more expensive to buy in Toronto. The median income of Toronto isn’t even double St. Thomas. Good god this will end horribly.

http://www.royallepagemc.ca/24/52824/498970/498970.html

#15 Ronaldo on 11.15.13 at 9:56 pm

”What to do? Don’t be disorderly. Come back here in two days.”

We can leave that to Rob Ford. He’s been doing a good job so far. He’s going to have quite a book to right once this is all over. Probably already getting offers. Too funny.

#16 Ronaldo on 11.15.13 at 9:58 pm

#7 Drill Baby Drill –

”There is a serious lack of common sense in the GTA market. People must be going in as partners on these overpriced pieces of crap. I know this pathetic blog tries to explain the reasoning people would use to justify spending such as this but I am gobsmacked at the insanity.”

Maybe their all on crack.

#17 totalinvestor.com on 11.15.13 at 10:03 pm

Is A Real Estate Crash Canada’s Next Black Swan?

http://totalinvestor.blogspot.ca/2013/11/is-real-estate-crash-canadaa-next-black.html

#18 Smoking Man on 11.15.13 at 10:06 pm

#7 Drill Baby Drill on 11.15.13 at 9:41 pm
There is a serious lack of common sense in the GTA market. People must be going in as partners on these overpriced pieces of crap. I know this pathetic blog tries to explain the reasoning people would use to justify spending such as this but I am gobsmacked at the insanity.
…………………………………………………………

It’s simple people in GTA can’t think period.

Wynn and Dalton blow billions and they are the darlings of Toronto.

Ford best Mayor Toronto ever had for tax payers gets lynched for slight behavior issues.

Are you really that surprised how the herd thinks here. Hell that house will go for 2 million in the spring.

Look at all the idiots in the city.

#19 Wtf on 11.15.13 at 10:07 pm

If this is true why doesn’t everyone just sell their crumbling 100 year old shitbox and retire in a cheaper place to live.

#20 Smoking Man on 11.15.13 at 10:16 pm

#7 Drill Baby Drill on 11.15.13 at 9:41 pm

One more point before I get hammerd

The same people that love the police chief are the same people that where being rounded up at the G20 by the chief and put in the cage. Those are your Ford haters.

Those are your buyers…..

Hence the Toronto real estate market.

How can it ever crash………………?

#21 Knickerbocker Knosty on 11.15.13 at 10:18 pm

#6 Smoking Man on 11.15.13 at 9:36 pm — “We need not lift a finger.” — Bang on! Let the sheeple be the galley slaves now, let them row the boat. We’re done with society’s / establishment garbage!

#22 Cici on 11.15.13 at 10:20 pm

#3 Shane

Because he doesn’t post on Saturdays, so you have to wait for Sunday for the sequel…or the next greatest post.

A Garth Turner non-marketing marketing ploy :-)

#23 wtf on 11.15.13 at 10:21 pm

who are these people paying 1 million for a dump like that???

what is wrong with everyone???

#24 jim on 11.15.13 at 10:22 pm

Adding government jobs at twice the rate that the private sector is losing them. Hello France! That’s a recipe for a moribund economy if there ever was one. I eagerly await the day when the state employs 65% of the citizens.

#25 Mister Obvious on 11.15.13 at 10:23 pm

#19 Wtf

“If this is true why doesn’t everyone just sell their crumbling 100 year old shitbox and retire in a cheaper place to live.”
———————–

Done!

#26 [email protected] on 11.15.13 at 10:23 pm

#14 blade thnxs for that link.

TO gta is crazy, but really its the place to be. Isn’t TO where all the newcomers go to?

#27 Money talks on 11.15.13 at 10:24 pm

#12 World According To Garth on 11.15.13 at 9:51 pm
47,000 new govt vampires sucking what little money the working poor have and getting a 1 million dollar pension when they retire. Awesome.

How many are of those new positions are terms or casuals? Terms and casuals have been hired en masse in the Feds with terms ending this fiscal year.

HR/Compensation is a disaster with all the centralization taking place, so much knowledge lost now with all those who’ve left before the 2015 cut off, lots of transition with the new hires who quickly realize they too won’t have a job after 2015 and people having to fight for paycheques.

I fully realize a lot of public servants do nothing other than chit chat and drink coffee all day however there is no power for management to get rid of those people due to the union.

Yes there is “fat” that needs to be trimmed but it’s been all the muscle that has left due to job loss or pure frustration with all the red tape and in a few years, it will be quite evident to the general public what a mess DRAP has created for all Canadians. A balanced budget with no social services does not bode well with the taxes we pay.

For those public servants who work hard, look for ways to be efficient and save tax payers money, provide exceptional service to the public & rarely take breaks…no one cares. The executive positions are being well padded while the people at the bottom who do all the actual work are watching their jobs disappear and promises of pension are vanishing.

#28 UN-EMPLOYED on 11.15.13 at 10:25 pm

#16
“People must be going in as partners on these overpriced pieces of crap”

I’d love to own a house in GTA and be selling into this stupidity.

#29 Herb on 11.15.13 at 10:28 pm

Smoking Man,

what’s your problem, SM? Ford is not a victim, he’s just another Smoking Man going up in smoke.

#30 Scott (GVRD) on 11.15.13 at 10:35 pm

#19 WTF

Because it is all about greed. Their thinking is, why sell now when prices appreciate by 8% per year. It’s better than the 1% my bank account is making.

And that’s all well and good as long as you, Wile E. Coyote, do not look down to find out that you’ve run off the cliff.

#31 Tiger on 11.15.13 at 10:36 pm

Looks like a drought is heading our way!
Pls don’t delet this won

#32 Chickenlittle on 11.15.13 at 10:36 pm

I don’t know if it’s because I’ve been reading a lot of 18th century novels lately ( I am NOT a hipster! I am not interested in Proust at all), but SM’s brilliant political satire at #6 made more sense than normal.

Or maybe it’s just the wine.

Anyways, I completely agree with you, SM. Politics is nothing but creating the perfect illusion to fool the public. I don’t think anyone is stupid enough to think people lead blameless lives anymore. And whatever you do, do NOT be independent and think for yourself.

“Let he that is without sin cast the first stone.” – Jesus

Good idea, but no one is listening. The stones make too much noise.

#33 Paully on 11.15.13 at 10:39 pm

It’s time for Toronto to repeal the extra municipal land transfer tax. The extra expense is keeping people from moving when and where they want to.

#34 Smoking Man on 11.15.13 at 10:40 pm

Vlad if I could ever write I would be

Einstein projecting via a Hunter S Thompson after life.

My technical skills are very limited, but my spirit and vision, no one on planet is close.

Humanity could not handle it. That’s why god handy caped me. The Prick

Going on second glass

#35 Shawn on 11.15.13 at 10:42 pm

Too much debt?

People have been worried that there is too much debt since the day debt was invented.

Debt and prosperity are both increasing exponentially and this will continue for at least another hundred years.

Why is everyone so worried about the average Canadian (who has one 1.1 kids and one testicle and who does not exist). Why not aspire to be better than average?

#36 chraotic on 11.15.13 at 10:44 pm

#19 Wtf

It is true, but people aren’t that smart!

#37 renters rule on 11.15.13 at 10:44 pm

looks like Leamington will be the place to retire. have not been there in years (I have family that live there), but I am guessing lovely little houses in decent condition, with a bit of land, will be under $100K in no time….?

#38 Smoking Man on 11.15.13 at 10:45 pm

#29 Herb on 11.15.13 at 10:28 pm
Smoking Man,

what’s your problem, SM? Ford is not a victim, he’s just another Smoking Man going up in smoke.
……………………………..

Herb no matter what you say, I’m never going to chirp you back.

I respect the elderly. I will never call you a grumpy old man.

I love you herb. Will you be my friend.

#39 DR on 11.15.13 at 10:47 pm

16 offers….one buyer….so ya there are still 15 people looking for the same house with potential.
Oh and how many buyers are in this area that do not want to do renovations that have money and are looking for a home such as this once it is completely renovated.

#40 Capt. Obvious on 11.15.13 at 10:48 pm

#19 WTF: Bingo. Winner winner, chicken dinner. If people are lining up to overbid, take them up on their generosity.

#18 SM: Ford talks a good game (though not lately) but I don’t see any evidence of his much advertised fiscal greatness. At last check he had blown up a perfectly good transit plan to suit the Ford city planning model. Hey, better Torontonians than me; I do enjoy the show.

#41 TurnerNation on 11.15.13 at 10:50 pm

This weblog keeps our focus towards the Four Pillars of Finance: Bikes, Babes and Balanced Portfolios. The fourth? Single-malt.

Avoid the pillory of debt.

#42 Renter's Revenge! on 11.15.13 at 10:50 pm

#17: god damn it, it can’t be a black swan if somebody thinks it might happen! Didn’t you read the book? :)

Garth: by “risk” I assume you/Kay mean that house prices might go down. What if they don’t go down? Based on price/income won’t your life suck no matter what if you buy now? Maybe your message should focus on how to live the good life.

#43 Scully on 11.15.13 at 10:58 pm

The RE market is alot like Ford, on crack and in denial that the end is coming! :) Most people I talk to think the economy and the RE market is great. When I ask them what they think is driving the market many say “lack of land” and “immigrants” and most think the empty condo towers are sold with millions of offshore dollars. Thanks Global. I can’t count how many times I’ve heard the blonde bubble head say this mouldy city is another SFO/London/HK and it’s just going to get more expensive! There goes my lunch. I should show her the new condo/townhouse development near my home. It has a 10% occupancy (don’t know how many have sold) and they are desperate for sales. Lots of incentives! Insanity.

#44 Tiger on 11.15.13 at 10:59 pm

Yup don’t follow main stream at all maybe some times just to play sheep, never tried being mayor councillor etc!
Cause I don’t do that shit!
There are shure a lot of candidates in prison most of them are innocent till they are charged still I’m innocent!
Is this the way the humanity will become zombies do zombies buy homes or just do drugs and other legal drugs legal or illegal your dummmmer than you think what a joker this has become

#45 Rexx Rock on 11.15.13 at 11:00 pm

Toronto Rocks!!!!I felt when Vancouver house prices surpassed a $1,000,000 ,Toronto would too.What an idiot I am for not going with that hunch.Calgary will surpass a million.Takes money to make money,Lots of rich people coming to Canada to park their money.Millionares eveywhere in Toronto and Vancouver.I hate it when they say I’ll be a millionaire in a few years when I sell my house.Good times for the sellers and realtors.

#46 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.15.13 at 11:00 pm

There are worse options than that Little Italy place… like a 2-bdrm semi on a 14ft wide lot for $829k:
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=13852198&PidKey=249223354

#47 Bottoms_Up on 11.15.13 at 11:00 pm

Stare at 189 Grace St. Ask yourself what would you pay for that house in your current living location. 199k? 299k? 399k? 1.2 mill??? Something’s not right.

#48 Smoking Man on 11.15.13 at 11:10 pm

#41 TurnerNation on 11.15.13 at 10:50 pm
This weblog keeps our focus towards the Four Pillars of Finance: Bikes, Babes and Balanced Portfolios. The fourth? Single-malt.

Avoid the pillory of debt.
……………………………………………….

Single malt, tried that once or twice :) last time about two years ago. 18 y scotch.

Went to my room at Seneca jumped in shower, woke the next day. You would think I got hit by a car. blood trail from shower to bed.

Carpet burns on head, hole in my hand, Gash on my face. How was I going to explain this one at the tax farm.

I made up a story that I was hit by a cyclist walking my dog.

No more malt for me. Thanks

My cousin was over last night and asked me why I work.

You don’t have to work for the rest of your life. I said I like it.

Truth now that I’m on glass 3.

Alcoholic here. Hard to admit,

If I was home, I would start at 9 am and go for weeks, end up in another country or Vegas with 100k less in my account.

When I’m at the tax farm at 6:am to 5:30 pm, I’m distracted.

During week nothing. No more booze.

Weekends capping it at 3 glasses per night

Why quit when you can control it is all I’m saying.

I love booze…….

#49 Bottoms_Up on 11.15.13 at 11:11 pm

#12 World According To Garth on 11.15.13 at 9:51 pm
——————————————————
I’m pretty sure those aren’t all federal jobs (some of whom protect your health from drugs, foods, imported toys, the water you drink on cruise ships, and make sure companies behave with respect to respecting the environment and pollution laws etc.), but also from provincial and municipal hirings including teachers, police, bylaw officers etc.

I love your type of Canadian, whine about government jobs but you’re the first one to use the emergency room or call bylaw when your neighbour makes noise after 10pm.

#50 Bottoms_Up on 11.15.13 at 11:14 pm

#6 Smoking Man on 11.15.13 at 9:36 pm
—————————————–
SM, if you behaved the way RF does, you would be seen to not be fit to be a parent, and your children would be taken from you. So what does that say about the establishment? I think you’ve taken the conspiracy rhetoric a little too far.

#51 Smudgekin on 11.15.13 at 11:22 pm

Glad our cousins to the south don’t know RE here as well as the mayor – they’d be a rolling & screaming all about us.

#52 Dr on 11.15.13 at 11:28 pm

Scully. It helps if you add your location

#53 KG on 11.15.13 at 11:37 pm

Will be back for the photos.

#54 Tiger on 11.15.13 at 11:48 pm

Drive through poco some days smells like high consternation of break dust get a weird head ache I know whear this pollution is coming from , the smelter esco rite in town they make a lot of different metals lots of chem in the concoction spewing all the burn off into the city day after day people there just think that how fresh air smells and re sells
Oh yeah they make a hell alot for the cn railway it was the main income for many in this town and still is a good old boys club I talk to councillor ok call me when you smell it he doesn’t have a nose he’s a councillor disaster response routes are for earthquake disaster yup get under your desk kids your ucked this whole town lives downstream of a dam that is 22 km long and in town a major rail way 1 k long x 20 tracks wide for storage of what there not concerned cause its a secret no one knows this shit unless their just scared Halloween is over these gov officials are crack heads

#55 Herb on 11.15.13 at 11:48 pm

#38 Smoking Man,

I’m your friend already, SM. Why else would I bother kicking you in the rear now and then?

#56 frank le skank on 11.15.13 at 11:52 pm

I’d like to know more about who bought the ugly house in Toronto’s Little Italy district that was listed for $849,000 and sold for $1.12 million. What’s the house hold income and how much debt do the have? Who’s buying these houses?

#57 Lost Soul on 11.15.13 at 11:55 pm

http://boyle-geddes.com/properties.html

Love their bios..hehe…. Victoria Realtor with multiple sales on the same property…scroll down to see #1030-21 Dallas Rd. Anybody who views these twits as anything but professional vacuum salesman is delusional!

#58 Tiger on 11.15.13 at 11:57 pm

48 s and m try an 81 year old

#59 Obvious Truth on 11.16.13 at 12:08 am

Thanks TnT and LP. I love the youth of today. They are not bound by old structures. Just on this blog we read about everyone teaching their kids.

This one is scary. This house could go to half price and at 6% rate still wouldn’t be cheap.

If there is a plus it’s the full proper cantina and a great veal sandwich down the way.

#60 Frank the Tank on 11.16.13 at 12:08 am

#12 World According To Garth on 11.15.13 at 9:51 pm
47,000 new govt vampires sucking what little money the working poor have and getting a 1 million dollar pension when they retire. Awesome.

I am a teacher and think it is more like 1.5M (if I live long enough)

95000*66%*(life span – 55)

#61 Tiger on 11.16.13 at 12:11 am

You think I’m a sheep no I don’t live with this whore poco i only have to pass through to pick up my kids the x moved there 1 block from devastation rail way and dam will if earthquake I heard three strikes your dun but all she thinks about is money and her self

#62 The Highwayman on 11.16.13 at 12:11 am

#54 Tiger. Fer crissakes throw in a period or two….please.

#63 45north on 11.16.13 at 12:21 am

Canadian Real Estate Update: (from yesterday) Canada’s housing bubble is larger than the 2006 US housing bubble.

great charts especially the first:
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/06/02/fear-greed-risk/

When I look at it I think Canadian prices will fall further and harder. Political policies in the US have made things worse – instead of recognizing that housing is over-valued political policies have delayed economic restructuring and there is every reason to believe that the same policies will be applied in Canada. Mark Hanson describes the US situation: half of all households with a mortgage are effectively underwater which means they cannot buy another house and they cannot move – leading to a lack of labour mobility also meaning that they do not contribute to a housing resurgence. My plan would be to pay every household that loses its house a $1000/ month for a year.

not 1st: “Household debt rises every single month, and mortgages are off the chart – sitting near $1.2 trillion.”

That may be just the tip of the iceberg because lots of people used HELOCs to fund down-payments for themselves and their kids.

I guess it’s easier to lose 2 houses than 1

ChickenLittle: I’ve been reading a lot of 18th century novels lately

well I suppose it’s possible but don’t you mean 19th century novels?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Dickens

Capt. Obvious: Winner winner, chicken dinner.

I remember a story that SM told about two candidates. The winner was a smart young woman. winner winner , chicken dinner

#64 Tiger on 11.16.13 at 12:22 am

Smoking man
The new mayor!
Lets go kids I’ll show you how to tell a g bottle and a bad bottle of ,you could never be mayor!

#65 Fleabitten Monkey on 11.16.13 at 12:22 am

Are these ugly little detached homes in Toronto that fetch close to a mill and over getting bulldozed and having new homes put up? That is, are they selling for land value, or are the buyers sinking more money into renos? In Vancouver it seem more common that they are just bought for the land and the buyers have no intention of living in the existing home. What is the profile of the typical buyer? Are they immigrants, new residents, young professionals, what? This seems like Vancouver was up until 2 years ago.

#66 Andrew Woburn on 11.16.13 at 12:26 am

#49 Bottoms_Up on 11.15.13 at 11:11 pm

I love your type of Canadian, whine about government jobs but you’re the first one to use the emergency room or call bylaw when your neighbour makes noise after 10pm.
=======================================

Very few of us resent the many civil servants who get out of bed each morning to protect us. What we are angry about is the dandelion growth of $100K middle managers that do nothing but go to meetings and couldn’t find their ass with both hands. Worse, front line resources are starved to feed this ridiculous payroll burden. I know situations in which front line workers can’t get a budget for a phone or pens to write with but assistant deputy ministers get $300K for thinking up new titles for the same work they’ve always done.

#67 Tiger on 11.16.13 at 12:32 am

Whear are the west boys are they doing a new ep of broke back Mtn the brothers or are just licking there wounds it all sounds like shit to me

#68 Painful aftermath on 11.16.13 at 12:33 am

http://www.kensingtongardens.ca

West Bank is holding a carnival and coupon for savings of up to $20k. For the Asians, there are the miss Chinese patent contestants.

#69 Bottoms_Up on 11.16.13 at 1:07 am

http://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/edmonton-s-real-estate-market-looking-up-1.357683

How’s the Edmonton market doing these days? Ever recover from the 2008-09 crash?

#70 Sam on 11.16.13 at 1:09 am

“It’s a mistake to think that what happened in the US will happen in Canada,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist said. “There was a lowering of credit quality in the US that has not happened in Canada. If anything, over the past four years tightened mortgage regulations have successfully prevented a housing bubble.”

#71 Fed-up on 11.16.13 at 1:12 am

@ UN-EMPLOYED on 11.15.13 at 9:49 pm
I’ve been unemployed for 8 months and I don’t own a house with a giant mortgage, thank God.
————————————————————————————————-

Well I can 1-up ya.

I am 35 years old, I am thrice divorced and I live in a van down by the river.

#72 Son of Ponzi on 11.16.13 at 1:23 am

Chinese Driver

#73 jake on 11.16.13 at 3:03 am

Man you guys are a bunch of sorry sack of losers. First the people criticizing those in the city, get over yourselves. Your lives in st thomas or leamington mean nothing and are terrible in quality compared to living in a vibrant city. Second this doom has been called for for so long eventually you may be right but you’re still jealous because you’re priced out of the market and could never afford to pay for a house in TO with your meaningless 40,000 per year jobs manufacturing the auto parts I dispose of every 3 yrs when I buy a new car.

Silly peasants, looking up and always admiring those above you. Can you make it a double-double while you’re at it thanks.

#74 East Van cheapo on 11.16.13 at 3:39 am

Thank you Bottoms_Up for being a voice of reason! I was beginning to fear that all the blog dogs were hardcore Conservative tea party wannabes. Surely Canadian political debate can be more intelligent than the dialectical extremes of partisan politics.

#75 liqdmetal on 11.16.13 at 4:28 am

#50 Bottoms up

Spoken like a true authoritarian. Take the kids and put them in the care of the government, the foster care system is peachy! If I were to guess I would guess that your strategy is the “now kids, drugs are bad mmmkay” strategy of educating them about substances.

Rob Ford is just hilarious. This man just says what comes to his mind. This is a very obtuse trait compared to what we are used to with politicians. Most politicians I respect less than the stereotypical used salesman. They lie through their teeth and are more times than not simply a self interested PIG at the public trough.

#76 blase on 11.16.13 at 4:51 am

The Grace Street house looks even worse inside. I think the St. Thomas house is noticeably nicer.

https://www.google.com/search?q=189+grace+street+toronto&oq=189+grace+street+toronto&aqs=chrome.0.69i59.5652j0j8&sourceid=chrome&espv=210&es_sm=122&ie=UTF-8#es_sm=122&espv=210&q=189+grace+street+toronto+pics

#77 Mark on 11.16.13 at 5:02 am

LOL! That house would be approx $140,000 in Windsor! Over $1MIL for that?

#78 detalumis on 11.16.13 at 5:37 am

Why is “little Italy” so expensive, scarcity c’est tout, there are whole whacks of kids who grew up in the suburbs who guess what, HATE the suburbs. There was nothing stopping Hazel McCallion from developing Mississauga along central Toronto lines, adding development along a subway with stores, gridlike streets and walkability, nothing except vision. One generation ago the Queen Street or College Street lifestyle was available all over the country, not anymore. My hometown of Hamilton had urban walkability – it’s all destroyed today. Even if only 20% of people decide they want to live a more people centric rather than car centric lifestyle that creates your 16 people bidding on one house war.

That house ain’t ever going to fall to 300K. There are no other places in Canada that will give you that lifestyle – sorry. Those 16 people ain’t going to be satisfied with living in Milton or in some faux town with 1/3 senior citizens in a poor province, sorry, it ain’t happening.

#79 juno on 11.16.13 at 5:54 am

#1 Kurt on 11.15.13 at 9:19 pm

Garth, you have said many times “correction, followed by slow melt”. Is it possible that you may change that assessment? I think you are still correct, but enough more government and market silliness might change that…
===============

Garth has been wrong about many things. And this one he’s going be completely wrong. He mention 15% decrease. What will actually happen is the government is up the creek without a paddle. They will keep this real estate roulette going until all the chips are on the table and they lose.

Too many jobs at stake, politicians only care about the next election and getting voted in. They don’t care about the long term and never plan for more than a few years ahead. They will try to keep the sinking ship afloat until they can’t.

We must be getting close, interest rates are close to zero. Gov running out of cash and probably about 80% of the people in house. They tried to slow it down, but as long as they allow Crea to be unaccountable for the BS/propaganda they publish (unlike license brokers) this will continue until the music stops. Then any jobs associated with real estate and reno will come to a screeching halt. Then in several months(6-8) the prices will drop and bam start a free fall probably 40-60% off its highs.

That is my prediction

#80 live within your means on 11.16.13 at 6:03 am

#41 TurnerNation on 11.15.13 at 10:50 pm
This weblog keeps our focus towards the Four Pillars of Finance: Bikes, Babes and Balanced Portfolios. The fourth? Single-malt.

Avoid the pillory of debt.
……………………………………

LOL – Hubby has his bikes, we’ve a balanced portfolio & no debt. Hubby’s fav. single malt is Glenmorangie which I always buy for him at Xmas, but not this year as he’ll be away. No babes either – he’s not a cheating man.

#81 live within your means on 11.16.13 at 6:10 am

Re Rob Ford – Andrew Coyne said it like it is.

http://o.canada.com/news/national/of-all-of-toronto-mayor-rob-fords-enablers-the-most-culpable-are-the-strategists/

#82 drydock on 11.16.13 at 7:32 am

#48 Smoking Man.

Large tumbler, lots of ice, two ounces of Finlandia Vodka, cranberry juice and a splash of lime and a splash of orange juice.
Nectar of the Gods.
It’s called a Cape Cod.
They are really good when you are actually in Cape Cod.

#83 Bob Loblaw on 11.16.13 at 7:43 am

@15 Money Talks – 47,000 Simple Serpents …. cops, corrections officers and CBSA guards – welcome to the Harpo Neo-Con police state. 1984 my friend.

@Smoking Man – kindly find somewhere else to share your drivel …..

#84 Yuus bin Haad on 11.16.13 at 8:57 am

SM is an acquired taste (single malt? Smoking Man?)

#85 Smoking Man time to admit you're wrong on 11.16.13 at 9:25 am

Hey Smoking Man, Toronto city council didn’t turf Rob Ford because he’s fat.

They stripped him of power because he’s a thuggish, lying sociopath who likes to hang out with gang members and go into the woods in the middle of the day to chug vodka with his dope-dealing buddy. When every newspaper is calling on him to resign and he’s fodder for every late-night show, you’ve got to ask yourself “is he really suitable to be mayor”?

Have you wondered what was in all those manila envelopes? Or why he was pushing so hard for subways? Or who killed Anthony Smith, and why?

C’mon Smoking Man, you’ve got a huge intellect. Dig a little deeper here and face the hard truths. This has nothing to do with his weight. Can you imagine the outcry if was doing all these things? It would be identical, except anyone else would have done the right thing by now and resigned.

In defence of Ford, as he noted he has not repeated his drunken tirade at the ACC :)

#86 Smoking Man time to admit you're wrong on 11.16.13 at 9:26 am

sorry, typo in that last post

It should read “Can you imagine the outcry if any other mayor was doing all these things? It would be identical, except anyone else would have done the right thing by now and resigned.”

#87 Herb on 11.16.13 at 9:54 am

Smoking Man,

read this in the Ottawa Citizen (without the pictures) this morning and immediately thought of you, SM.

… contempt for learning, … disdain for facts, … disrespect of convention and debasing of standards.

(last para of link at #80)

But I’m still your friend because I know that you’re a natural formed by genes, nurture and life experience, and not some troll shilling the “… aggressively dumb, harshly divisive message that has become the playbook for the right generally in this country …”

#88 blase on 11.16.13 at 10:33 am

#73 Jake,

Your comment is so reflective of a large segment of society who have no idea what it’s like to live in non-bubble times. You think it’s normal for banks to hand out money to anyone, with no thought to whether the debt will ever be paid off. It doesn’t matter to the banking executives, who will have cashed in their stock options and retired to Europe by the time this thing becomes fully unwound.

I’m sure types like Jake have no contingency plans for unemployment or a housing crash. The Jakes of Canada were pre-pubescent when the last crash happened in 1990. That’s when you could buy a mansion in the best neighborhoods of a major city for less than the cost of an average home today.

The Jakes don’t realize that walkability and Starbucks don’t matter when you have to load up at the food bank in your behind-payments Cayenne.

So many wannabes thinking they are the next Trump. They probably don’t even know Trump was worth minus 1 Billion 20 years ago. It’s gonna be hard to have to switch to home brewed coffee, Jake.

#89 eddy on 11.16.13 at 10:36 am

A Toronto podcaster called “fakeologist” speculates that the Rob Ford affair is scripted and part of a Freemasonic humiliation ritual.

http://fakeologist.com/category/radioarchives/

#90 Smoking Man on 11.16.13 at 10:37 am

#82 Bob Loblaw on 11.16.13 at 7:43 [email protected] Money Talks – 47,000 Simple Serpents …. cops, corrections officers and CBSA guards – welcome to the Harpo Neo-Con police state. 1984 my friend

[email protected] Man – kindly find somewhere else to share your drivel …..

…………..

Kindly, kindly.?

Oh man you’re so downtown. So Canadian.
This country is doomed…..

#91 don on 11.16.13 at 11:06 am

Shawn 35. Sorry Shawn but I disagree with your debt assessment. The early debts were small in comparison to our productivity. If you step back and look at our debt/ gdp graphs you can clearly see two exponents running away from each other. There will be a point when it blows up the simple math says it has to. I do not know when but history is quite clear on this.

#92 Nemesis on 11.16.13 at 11:09 am

TwoMovies of particular interest to Homme de Fumer:

Doesn’tEndWell:
http://youtu.be/0x-yBuCV6tM

HollyWoodEnding:
http://youtu.be/y7RXmrlGe-k

#93 TnT on 11.16.13 at 11:37 am

#59 Obvious Truth on 11.16.13 at 12:08 am

If there is a plus it’s the full proper cantina and a great veal sandwich down the way.

***

You must mean California Sandwiches on Claremont and Treford…. Best sandwiches EVER!

Think I hit that today… sooo hungry now…

#94 TurnerNation on 11.16.13 at 12:02 pm

Attn. new blog dogs. The following usernames are still available; reserve yours today.

Talisman Jack

Fjord Nation

Mattamy_Swooner

Otto B. VanDelusional

Dip the Drain Operator

Ancient & Accepted Blog Dog

Fancy Coloured Kias

Chancellor Rebalancer

KJV, S&W and AG

Bearded Old Goat

Squirrily Man

Gathfolio

Flatherty’s Mixture

Sciontologist

…..

Reserved:
Blog Dog Poloz

#95 TurnerNation on 11.16.13 at 12:09 pm

From my weekly check of Toronto rags online:

– Our forum host:

http://www.postcity.com/Eat-Shop-Do/Do/November-2013/Turner-A-few-simple-rules/index.php

– Toronto Kando rents not going down. I think, as more become underwater on ownership, rents will become desperately high.

http://www.thegridto.com/life/real-estate/no-vacancy/

#96 washyourmouthout on 11.16.13 at 12:46 pm

You announce 47000 civil service hires as a good thing……thats a lot of money that will not go to the needy the hungry or the overtaxed.

#97 live within your means on 11.16.13 at 12:50 pm

#81 drydock on 11.16.13 at 7:32 am
#48 Smoking Man.

Large tumbler, lots of ice, two ounces of Finlandia Vodka, cranberry juice and a splash of lime and a splash of orange juice.
Nectar of the Gods.
It’s called a Cape Cod.
They are really good when you are actually in Cape Cod.
……………

Must keep the recipe for next summer. I’ve a full bottle of Vodka from yrs ago. Love Cape Cod.

Younger sis & I spent 2 weeks there eons ago. My Mom’s aunt (same age as Mom) & her spouse (we called him Uncle Bill) lived there. She was a teetotaler. Their home was our home base. Uncle Bill would ask us if we’d like a drink before dinner – of course, as we knew he wanted one. They were a marvelous older couple.

#98 Smoking Man on 11.16.13 at 12:55 pm

#85 Smoking Man time to admit you’re wrong on 11.16.13 at 9:26 amsorry, typo in that last postIt should read “Can you imagine the outcry if any other mayor was doing all these things? It would be identical, except anyone else would have done the right thing by now and resigned.”

……..

Translation.

On your knees and kiss my ring.

………
#91 Nemesis on 11.16.13 at 11:09 am

Ha Smoking Man sounds gay in french…

#99 jess on 11.16.13 at 1:00 pm

The lie catching business

“The truth is very precious; use it sparingly,” Ervin said of Nixon: “He used it sparingly.”

http://thesaurus.com/browse/lie
http://www.dailywritingtips.com/40-synonyms-for-lie/

#100 Mister Obvious on 11.16.13 at 1:06 pm

#66 Andrew Woburn

Absolutely bang on my friend! I know of public sector middle managers who stopped doing anything remotely useful years ago.

They attend perpetual meetings in vacuous discussions over non-issues but when it comes time for budget cuts it is they who wield the knife. Rest assured, manager compensation and essentiality is always beyond reproach.

Hands-on workers make do with less and less as it becomes almost impossible to requisition pencils. Meanwhile, one’s absentee manager (who could not do a front line job to save her soul) is nowhere to be seen.

Disclosure: It should be noted that I also stopped doing anything remotely useful years ago. The big difference is that I do it on my own resources not those of the public.

#101 Ronaldo on 11.16.13 at 1:20 pm

#19 Wtf on 11.15.13 at 10:07 pm

”If this is true why doesn’t everyone just sell their crumbling 100 year old shitbox and retire in a cheaper place to live.”

If it’s anything like my son-in-law, they figure it’s going to go much higher. They’ve won a jackpot since they purchased in 08 and sitting on a tax free 1/2 million gain of 60% and living in a ”tear down”.

#102 Ronaldo on 11.16.13 at 1:38 pm

http://www.policyalternatives.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/publications/National_Office_Pubs/2009/Exposed_Revealing_Truths_About_Canadas_Recession.pdf

Revealing Truths About Canada’s Recession – written in April 2009. A good read comparing the recent recession to those of the past and especially the 80’s and 90’s. This was when average debt was at 140%. Things are not looking good for Canada’s future.

#103 The Prophet Elijah on 11.16.13 at 2:11 pm

Houses are behaving like the DOW, foreign capital from all over the world looking to park in safe havens. When will this end, and how will this end is the big question.
It was foreign capital withdraw that caused the 20%+collapse in the DOW in 1987 in one day.

No it wasn’t. — Garth

#104 Ripped on 11.16.13 at 2:29 pm

This guy is a hit on late night TV

http://www.cbc.ca/news/arts/rob-ford-saga-delights-u-s-late-night-hosts-1.2427835

#105 Jsan on 11.16.13 at 2:36 pm

DOUBLE LISTINGS

Am I missing something here? I was doing a random search for Real Estate around the Barrie Ontario area just checking numbers out for a possible job relocation opportunity. Almost every single house listed in the area has double listings of the same house but different MLS numbers. I mean I could see this happening once or twice accidentally but almost every little MLS dot you click on contains duplicate listings with different MLS numbers. Is this the scam that has been mentioned here? After all, if you sell one double listed house can you chalk up 2 MLS sales? If so, what a scam!

I mean no kidding, you don’t even have to look hard for these double listings, they are everywhere. I could list hundreds of links.

http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=13843761

http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=13844492

http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=13845151

http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=13841598

http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=13787034

http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=13784761

http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=13837197

http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=13835715

I could do this all day, their are hundreds and hundreds of duplicates in this one area alone.

http://beta.realtor.ca/Map.aspx#CultureId=1&ApplicationId=1&RecordsPerPage=9&MaximumResults=9&PropertyTypeId=300&TransactionTypeId=2&SortOrder=A&SortBy=1&LongitudeMin=-79.79850769407227&LongitudeMax=-79.56848144895508&LatitudeMin=44.3243392945749&LatitudeMax=44.41612615635732&PriceMin=0&PriceMax=0&BedRange=0-0&BathRange=0-0&ParkingSpaceRange=0-0&viewState=m&Longitude=-79.69327927&Latitude=44.37638587&ZoomLevel=12&CurrentPage=1

#106 Patiently Waiting for the Storm on 11.16.13 at 2:57 pm

#66 Andrew Woburn on 11.16.13 at 12:26 am

Agreed, too many managers, inspectors and superintendents at the top doing nothing all day long. The front line staff bust their butts all day long. Our ‘Superiors’ don’t even really know what goes on in the departments they are supposedly overseeing. We need to trim the civil servant fat from the top of of the food chain. Leave us hard working little guys alone, we are the ones who help protect communities, provide clean drinking water, garbage pick up, child protection, etc.

Think about it.

#107 Nemesis on 11.16.13 at 3:07 pm

It’s certainly not Zen… but this morning’s QuantumFlow is trying to tell us something…

[G&M] – A tale of two schools: The correlation between income and education in Toronto

…”In Toronto, where income inequality is highest, wealth and test scores at Canada’s largest school board are correlated. A Globe and Mail analysis, based on data obtained from the Education Quality and Accountability Office and 2010 income data from Statistics Canada, shows this divergence quite clearly. High-scoring elementary schools are primarily concentrated in high-income areas and vice-versa. In lower-income neighbourhoods, a higher percentage of students fail the reading, writing and math tests.”…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/time-to-lead/a-tale-of-two-schools-the-correlation-between-income-and-education/article15463950/?page=all

QuelleSurprise… although, as it happens, things aren’t any ‘Peachier’ in the GoldenGroves…

[TheOkanagan] – Younger generation feeling the squeeze

…”Dr. Paul Kershaw, UBC professor in the School of Population and Public Health… [and] interim associate director in the Human Early Learning Partnership, is also the founder of the Generation Squeeze campaign (gensqueeze.ca).

“This work is trying to draw attention to what is a substantial decline in the standard of living for younger Canadians,” Kershaw told The Okanagan Saturday.
“That has problems for kids, since these Canadians are in their prime child-bearing and rearing years.”

He compared the current standard of living with the standard of living in 1976, when baby boomers became young adults. All of his numbers are adjusted for inflation.

“Today’s typical 25- to 34-year-old makes $4 an hour less compared to the same-aged person a generation ago even though they’re more than twice as likely to have some kind of post-secondary (education) and all the student debt that now comes with post-secondary because tuition is more than double what it was a generation ago,” he said…

…”Then, young Canadians in this province are asked to do a most remarkable thing: to pay an extra $350,000 for the privilege of trying to live in an average home.”…

http://www.pentictonherald.ca/front-page-news/younger-generation-feeling-the-squeeze.html

#CouldBeWorse?

[NYT] – Young and Educated in Europe, but Desperate for Jobs

…” Her parents were imploring her to return home to the Canary Islands to help run her father’s fruit business. It was a sign of the times, though, that even her own father probably would not be able to afford to pay her.

“We’re in a situation that is beyond our control,” Ms. Méndez said. “But that doesn’t stop the feelings of guilt. On the bad days, it’s really hard to get out of bed. I ask myself, ‘What did I do wrong?’ ”….

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/16/world/europe/youth-unemployement-in-europe.html?hp

#It’sGoodToBeTheEmir

[FT] – Italy’s luxury property sector proves beacon of hope in recession

…An imposing bronze statue of a gladiator armed with trident and net overlooks the lobby paved with delicate yellow Siena marble illuminated by Murano crystal chandeliers from Venice.

There is no mistaking the Italian character of the Regina Baglioni in Rome’s renowned Via Veneto, but its new owner is the ruling family of Qatar, which bought the five-star hotel through its Mayhoola for Investments fund after acquiring Italian designer Valentino last year for a reported $850m.

Liveried staff, who respectfully refer to their new landlord as the “emir”, say he liked the Liberty-style hotel so much he has permanently reserved the eighth-floor penthouse suite for family visits to Rome, while maintaining management under the previous owners of the Baglioni group. “Nothing has really changed,” comments a waiter.

Round the corner, staff at the prestigious 121-room Hotel Eden, which hosts heads of state, royalty and celebrities, are adjusting to a new regime under the Sultan of Brunei’s Dorchester Group, which acquired it two months ago for an estimated €1m a room, the going rate for a five-star hotel in Rome.”…

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8b09eb36-4de9-11e3-8fa5-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#slide0

Well. Never mind. Kids whose extended family does not include an Emir or a Sultan could always try to wangle themselves an H-2BVisa… There’s no shortage of work in SanAntonio…

[BloombergTV] – Most Wanted: Meet the King of Bulletproof Cars

…”Armoring your vehicle is the latest craze among the uber-wealthy. Texas Armoring in San Antonio is the biggest private vehicle armoring company in the world, protecting celebs like T.I., Mel B and Steven Segal. They produce about 200 vehicles a year and project that number to double in the next five years due to a spike in demand in the U.S.”…

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/the-bulletproof-suv-that-literally-shocks-intruders-CxOehsh9SNi0RdHIwB6_wg.html

#108 Shawn on 11.16.13 at 3:13 pm

I GOT NO JOB BUT I GOT A HOUSE AND I SHALL NOT MOVE TO FIND WORK

Story in the Edmonton Journal today (by our best business columnist) about a very successful construction company that has trouble recruiting from Ontario. Instead they are going to Europe to find workers.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Gary+Lamphier+Clark+Builders+strong+independent+company+with/9172947/story.html

They say:

“As contractors we’re in competition with the EI (Employment Insurance) program in the rest of Canada. So this whole mobility issue is one we really need to have a practical resolution to.”

Garth has mentioned before, owning a house can become an anchor that ties you down. Renters can move more easily.

#109 Shawn on 11.16.13 at 3:20 pm

ALBERTANS ARE BETTER?

Okay, that’s politically incorrect. But think about it. It’s generally people with some ambition that move to Alberta for work. Many of the best people of Ontario stay in Ontario because they have good prospects there. Some of the best people come to Alberta. But virtually ALL of the most lazy and incompetent will stay where they are and not move. By this logic the best opportunities attract the best and the stock of people on average get better.

Same logic applied to immigrants to North America 100 and 200 years ago. North America ended up with a better stock of people on average as compared to much of Europe. Politically incorrect, yes, but does it ring true? By now things have averaged out however and I would not call North Americans a better stock of people in 2013. Alberta, probably, but the U.S. and Canada in general, no.

#110 Fed-up on 11.16.13 at 3:27 pm

@#12 World According To Garth on 11.15.13 at 9:51 pm
47,000 new govt vampires sucking what little money the working poor have and getting a 1 million dollar pension when they retire. Awesome.

————————————————————————————–

But haven’t you heard? That is what Canada is all about today. Sapping the public sector dry and selling over-priced rat shacks to one another that will enslave everyone to our corrupt banking system for decades. What an amazing economy.

It’s pathetic.

#111 Fed-up on 11.16.13 at 3:41 pm

My apologies, I meant “private sector” and not “public sector” in my last post.

#112 Bdwy skytrain on 11.16.13 at 3:44 pm

#107 _ re san antiono

The cars are made here but seemingly not needed here.

Flying back to bc tonnite from a week in texas. Very pleasantly surprised with san ant.
Clean , safe, cheap, warm ,good food and things to do
Houses are not exp but plenty of work to be had

But the dangers still lurk… 130_140k hwy speeds on good open roads, ride your hog bareheaded, pump gas without holding the lever, public drinking encouraged, general freedom allowed (yet not a drunk to be seen, let alone a junkie) the very few homeless types seemed very polite and friendly. Its a wonder anyone is still alive without all the rules keeping us cdns safe!

#113 j in Calgary on 11.16.13 at 3:45 pm

music to my ears.

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2013/11/15/Housing-Story-RAW.aspx

#114 Namblin Man on 11.16.13 at 3:53 pm

About Rob Ford. People are missing the obvious. He’s clearly dysfunctional yet he has run the city for years. I use the word “run” in the lightest of contexts.

Why is this a job if somebody so clearly screwed up can do it?

Isn’t it a touch convenient that this all happened during the Senate scandal?

Is Stephen Harper a gigantic, lying POS?

I’ve lived in many places around the world & this current version of Canada is my least favorite by a country mile.

#115 The Propeht Elijah on 11.16.13 at 4:08 pm

“C’mon Smoking Man, you’ve got a huge intellect. Dig a little deeper here and face the hard truths. This has nothing to do with his weight. Can you imagine the outcry if was doing all these things? It would be identical, except anyone else would have done the right thing by now and resigned.”

His obesity is a sure sign of heavy crack abuse. Most turnout that way after years of abuse.

#116 canadaman on 11.16.13 at 4:52 pm

The most amusing thing about all these large condo development’s in Vancouver is the outdoor pool,give me a break.I’m working on a condo project in the Lower Mainland and I haven’t seen one person in the pool in 2 month’s .What a waste of money!!!

#117 Waterloo Resident on 11.16.13 at 4:52 pm

Don’t worry, WE ALL KNOW THERE IS A HIRING BOOM IN ALBERTA, right?

We all know that new workers in Alberta are starting out at $400,000 per year, so WHAT’S THE PROBLEM?

(At least in Alberta it’s no problem.)

#118 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 11.16.13 at 5:06 pm

A reasonable conclusion.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101192450

#119 SofaKing on 11.16.13 at 5:13 pm

LoL! This is too funny. Doug Ford caught on CNN with a bottle of vodka in the background in his office. GD nut-wing conservatives!
Sorry Garth, not criticizing you but the crazy right-wing consrvatives from south of the border that has invaded Canadian politics.

#120 TnT on 11.16.13 at 5:42 pm

#119 SofaKing

Seen the video and you are full of BS

Doug was very well spoken and consistently promoted Toronto at every opportunity. No other T.O politician promoted Toronto in the media…

Thanks Doug… you did Toronto well…

#121 live within your means on 11.16.13 at 5:43 pm

Not our Thanksgiving Day but this is cute.

http://images.businessweek.com/ss/05/11/egreetings/image/01.swf

#122 brainsail on 11.16.13 at 6:16 pm

I wonder why this news story hasn’t gone national.

“A one-billion-litre spill from a waste water pond at an Alberta coal mine continues to cause concern as the effluent makes it way down the Athabasca River.”

“The spill the size of 400 Olympic-sized swimming pools was released by the Obed Coal Mine near Hinton when a retaining wall collapsed on Oct. 31.”

“The spill should be a wake up call about what could happen to the more toxic oilsands tailings ponds along the Athabasca River, Schindler said.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-coal-mine-spill-worries-water-expert-1.2428440

#123 Canadian Watchdog on 11.16.13 at 6:16 pm

Savers boosting bitcoin demand in China, exchange says

“The main reason why bitcoin has become big in China is because Chinese people are savers, and more people are seeing bitcoin as a way to store and invest their money,” Linke Yang, vice-president of BTC China, told reporters on the sidelines of a conference in Singapore.

Canada Revenue Agency is currently mulling how to tax bitcoin gains, which means, the government considers bitcoin and other crypto currencies 'fair game' as they role their own government-backed digital currency, MintChip.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $465, up 3385% YTD and up 929,900% since it started trading in July 2010.
Yes this seems extraordinary with bubble like features, but when compared to penny stocks and public participation, the price action is normal.

I think it's worth watching and researching as governments define how they will handle virtual currencies. If they do accept it and tax it like regular investments, you can be sure prices will be heading over $1000/BTC in 2014.

It's been a remarkable story and is an ingenious global currency scheme that hasn't been seen since bimetallism. I wouldn't be surprised if Satoshi Nakamoto (creator of bitcoin) will be Time's person of the year.

#124 Victor V on 11.16.13 at 6:20 pm

#40 Capt. Obvious on 11.15.13 at 10:48 pm

#18 SM: Ford talks a good game (though not lately) but I don’t see any evidence of his much advertised fiscal greatness. At last check he had blown up a perfectly good transit plan to suit the Ford city planning model. Hey, better Torontonians than me; I do enjoy the show.

=====================

I have met both Miller and Ford. Miller was an arrogant chit. Ford was a nice guy. On a policy side, Ford supports equivalent transit options for Scarborough. Miller supported second class transit options for Scarborough. That’s enough for me.

Two other quick points: 1) no city with a real subway network funds it all in one go. 2) we can fund subways out of gov’t waste and not starting new non-essential initiatives like full-day daycare. I used public transit when I lived in DC, NY and Paris and when I am in Tokyo and London. I don’t use it in Toronto. Draw your own conclusions.

#125 OttawaMike on 11.16.13 at 6:24 pm

Garth,
I hope you fired up that scooter today. Probably the last good riding day for 2013.You never did say what you traded that VTX for..

I picked up a screaming deal on a 2nd bike a few weeks ago. An 1100 Ninja, from a retired Carleton uni professor who had turned 70 and decided he no longer want to ride a guided missile.

#126 Smoking Man on 11.16.13 at 6:34 pm

#115 The Propeht Elijah on 11.16.13 at 4:08 pm

“C’mon Smoking Man, you’ve got a huge intellect. Dig a little deeper here and face the hard truths. This has nothing to do with his weight. Can you imagine the outcry if was doing all these things? It would be identical, except anyone else would have done the right thing by now and resigned.”His obesity is a sure sign of heavy crack abuse. Most turnout that way after years of abuse.

………….

Dude, if cage master g20 Blair. Not launched an investigation and witch hunt. This would be a non story.

His officers brutality destroyed our charter of rights. Few summers ago. Guys burning cop cars, instigators where CSIS. One of them is my son’s friend.

Who knows what back room deal Blair made to go through with this.

Ford was pushed and he just cracked….

Every wealthy home owner, tax payer I know will never publicly support Ford after the eat comment. But every one of them will vote for him again.

Cause wealthy people know how shit works. They know the true corruption and sleaze bagary of the daltonians and there cabal.

Ford is a dumb fat kid. Who lies. But he’s got our wallets protected. That all I care about.

And all those self righteous, never sin fakes just make me laugh, we all have skeletons in our closets.

#127 Albertaguy on 11.16.13 at 7:13 pm

Blog dogs – lets not forget the real reason we all here….

http://www.ispot.tv/ad/75nA/directv-attack-of-the-squirrels

http://www.backwoodsbound.com/zsquir.html

#128 DUI on Money Road on 11.16.13 at 7:23 pm

#110 Fed-up on 11.16.13 at 3:27 pm
————————————-
What is never mentioned but should be taken into account by neocons like you are that the total ‘public’ service compensation actually includes a significant amount of contract dollars that go to the private sector. And to be sure I haven’t been that impressed with the private sector work I’ve seen. Stop drawing lines and dividing. We’re all Canadians.

#129 ozy - starting to get pissed off on 11.16.13 at 7:23 pm

starting to get pissed off, when 800k house sells for 1.2 mil and you continue saying RE is declining

it makes no sense

Excess is a sign of an unsustainable market. Think of Nortel at $120 a share. — Garth

#130 Daisy Mae on 11.16.13 at 8:50 pm

#114 Namblin Man: “Is Stephen Harper a gigantic, lying POS?”

**************

Yes.

#131 wex19 on 11.16.13 at 8:54 pm

Took the little one and wifey to Santa Claus parade outside of Ottawa today. First parade float out was handing out candy for adults. I was handed a expensively made flyer to go visit Santa and have my kids picture taken with Santa. Not a problem but read on…. Santa was to be waiting at a newer property development and the flyer advertised 5 percent down, no payments for one year. Merry Christmas to all!

#132 recharts on 11.16.13 at 8:56 pm

The real matter here is that the governments can not control this currency and moreover they can not tax the transactions and anything else. As long as you keep everything in bitcoins CRA and anybody else can’t do anything about it

#123 Canadian Watchdog on 11.16.13 at 6:16 pm
Savers boosting bitcoin demand in China, exchange says

“The main reason why bitcoin has become big in China is because Chinese people are savers, and more people are seeing bitcoin as a way to store and invest their money,” Linke Yang, vice-president of BTC China, told reporters on the sidelines of a conference in Singapore.

Canada Revenue Agency is currently mulling how to tax bitcoin gains, which means, the government considers bitcoin and other crypto currencies ‘fair game’ as they role their own government-backed digital currency, MintChip.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $465, up 3385% YTD and up 929,900% since it started trading in July 2010.
Yes this seems extraordinary with bubble like features, but when compared to penny stocks and public participation, the price action is normal.

I think it’s worth watching and researching as governments define how they will handle virtual currencies. If they do accept it and tax it like regular investments, you can be sure prices will be heading over $1000/BTC in 2014.

It’s been a remarkable story and is an ingenious global currency scheme that hasn’t been seen since bimetallism. I wouldn’t be surprised if Satoshi Nakamoto (creator of bitcoin) will be Time’s person of the year.

#133 Daisy Mae on 11.16.13 at 8:58 pm

#115: “His obesity is a sure sign of heavy crack abuse. Most turnout that way after years of abuse.”

****************

Who gives a damn? He should just resign. Just do the right thing. His family can take care of his problems.

#134 Mr Smith on 11.16.13 at 9:00 pm

Jeeeesssuuss Chrissssttt!!! 1 Million for that house>??????????????????????? are people hanging out with Robby?

#135 Daisy Mae on 11.16.13 at 9:05 pm

#116 canadaman: “The most amusing thing about all these large condo development’s in Vancouver is the outdoor pool,give me a break.I’m working on a condo project in the Lower Mainland and I haven’t seen one person in the pool in 2 month’s .What a waste of money!!!”

****************

Tell me about it. Our collective stupidity is unbelievable.

#136 Observer on 11.16.13 at 9:34 pm

Excess is a sign of an unsustainable market. Think of Nortel at $120 a share. — Garth

If we’re at the point where family shelter in T-Owe is comparable to Nortel at $120 then I hope Flaherty’s reading your comments. Instead of nickel-and-diming, fretting about TV channel packages, they should be sweating the bigger stuff like high real estate valuations and the impact it’s having on the average family.

#137 Andrew Woburn on 11.16.13 at 9:48 pm

#116 canadaman: “The most amusing thing about all these large condo development’s in Vancouver is the outdoor pool,give me a break.I’m working on a condo project in the Lower Mainland and I haven’t seen one person in the pool in 2 month’s .What a waste of money!!!”
=======================================

It’s funny all right but not nearly as funny as creating empty bike lanes so Vancouver could beat out LA as North America’s most traffic-congested city.

#138 Fed-up on 11.16.13 at 10:05 pm

@#128 DUI on Money Road on 11.16.13 at 7:23 pm

————————————————————————————————-

Sounds like you’re a public sector fat cat from your 1 sided, narrow minded post.
That’s right we’re all Canadians. So why don’t you help fund my fat early retirement plan, dumpload of sick days and extended vacation time?

Oh I forgot, that’s my job…to fund both yours and mine.

#139 live within your means on 11.16.13 at 10:37 pm

#127 Albertaguy on 11.16.13 at 7:13 pm

We’ve had little red squirrels for 22+ years – they are apparently the most territorial of any. Initially we got a laugh out of their antics. One evening I made a tiny burger on the BBQ for our dog. Squirrel stole it. Hubby used to put peanut butter on a cracker for the squirrel. One day he put a cracker out without p’butter. She picked it up. Turned it around & threw it on the deck below. She was really P’O’d. We have some huge hemlock trees beside our deck. (I’d love to get rid of them as I fear they will fall on our house in a storm.)

We feed lots of birds. The little monster chases all of them away.

I read the following site & it is so true. http://www.donmeredith.ca/article-forest-chickaree.php

We stopped putting a cover on our BBQ. In the spring we opened the BBQ & discovered the squirrel had torn off all the lining & made a huge nest in the BBQ & had horded a pack of peanuts in it. Hubby took a picture. It was hilarious. One summer eve. sitting on the deck we saw a flying squirrel – bat like wings. Quite a site.

We also had a coon & her little off springs. We have a Euro patio door (3-4″) from the floor. Yrs ago my young niece laid in front of the door & the little curious coons would put their noses to the door. Finally hubby got a cage & trapped a female. She was vicious. He let her loose many kms away. We have a large lot. At the time there was mostly undeveloped land around us.

#140 DR on 11.16.13 at 10:41 pm

#88
Blase
If they were selling mansions back then in forest hill for the average price of a house today You shoulda bought em all

#141 45north on 11.16.13 at 10:46 pm

Mark Hanson says that in the US housing really peaked in 2002 but it was sustained through increased leverage. Not that different from Canada where CMHC backed 40 year 0 down mortgages. I believe that in the US the increased leverage was made possible through quantitative easing which is basically expanding the money supply. Here’s my leap: what if the US dollar finds itself in competition with Bit Coin? I mean that’s its whole attraction, the supply of bit coins cannot be artificially expanded. I mean the Fed can have a meeting and decide that it won’t expand the money supply or maybe it will. Sounds trés artificial. I’m thinking that in a real competition the Fed will defend the dollar. No matter what.
even if that means watching housing collapse.

#142 45north on 11.16.13 at 10:47 pm

trés = très

#143 jd on 11.16.13 at 10:49 pm

Hmmm, wonder if the person behing this bubble has the initials MC? Note the reference to Canada’s housing mess:

http://on.aol.ca/video/housing-bubble-fears-as-uk-helps-to-buy-517962689

#144 DR on 11.16.13 at 10:51 pm

Excess is a sign of an unsustainable market. Think of Nortel at $120 a share. — Garth

Same type and style of house in riverdale sold 1.7mil plus …..oh and Two of them sold over that price.

#145 Spectacle on 11.16.13 at 11:24 pm

Thank You Garth .

#145 Mr Smith. And #135 Daisy Mae

While were on the topic of real estates continuing saga as a fiscal drain , it reminds me of the UBC leasehold property $2 million Chancellor property that was built with non-potable water lines. They left them in place, but tore them out of the 2 remaining units next door!

My client just today sold his freshly renovated kerrisdale, Vancouver condo: had it a year, Reno on it, sold it ( a year later) after 2 1/2 months on the market! = For a loss of more than 10% ! Celebrations begin now, very happy and relieved! Whole site has ( in my investigations) MAJOR Drain/plumbing issues. $20k to $40 k per unit.

Just saying….

#146 mike on 11.16.13 at 11:36 pm

The city is offering homeowners grants of up to $24,000 to build new suites or improve existing units as part of a plan to increase Edmonton’s supply of affordable housing.

#147 DUI on Money Road on 11.16.13 at 11:39 pm

#138 Fed-up on 11.16.13 at 10:05 pm
—————————————
Con-bot troll?

Why don’t you give me examples of the following, as your trite accusations are astonishingly weak.

1) “public sector fat cat”
What exactly does that mean? Example please. Comparisons with private sector welcomed (same job type, same education/qualifications).

2) “fat early retirement plan”
What exactly does that mean? Example please.
Comparisons with private sector welcomed (same job type, same education/qualifications).

3) “dumpload of sick days”
What exactly does that mean? Example please.
Comparisons with private sector welcomed (same job type, same education/qualifications).

4) “extended vacation time?”
What exactly does that mean? Example please.
Comparisons with private sector welcomed (same job type, same education/qualifications).

5) “that’s my job…to fund both yours and mine.”

Ok enjoy your fantasy world where there are no police, army, teachers, firemen or doctors (or you could always move to the Congo to live your fantasy). Remember that public sector employees also pay tax. So for every employee ‘making’ $60k, Canada is actually getting their services for $40k, and their net earnings also become part of the economy. And for that matter let’s talk about private sector tax honesty…that’s an oxymoron if I’ve ever heard one.

#148 cynically on 11.16.13 at 11:39 pm

Shawn @109 has his immigration history facts wrong. It was the US that opened up its immigration while Canada, the colony, remained very restrictive by accepting mostly British and northern European immigrants. By their far-sightedness the former colony(US) became the most powerful nation in the world and the latter, a third-tier country, still a colony in some ways with its ties to the UK (look who is still head-of-state) but to its credit has opened up in the last forty or so years and has prospered tremendously because of it. It’s not only hands a country gets but brains and ideas. Now what to do about that across-the-ocean connection?

#149 Toronto a world class city? on 11.16.13 at 11:42 pm

Realtors on this blog are on Crack if they think toronto is a world class city. People all over the world are laughing at the stupid people of toronto for voting for a crack head. Toronto doesn’t even compare to Chicago where you can get a $ 400k house which would cost three times more in Crackonto .

#150 Happity on 11.17.13 at 12:19 am

Interesting charts showing the USA economic renaissance that never was, and fed printing that dominates all who are bound in the investment darkness of digital computer screen entries:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-16/spot-striking-similarity

#151 Tiger on 11.17.13 at 12:49 am

I figured it out 15 years ago, a lot less middle class in the years to come, just poor and wealthy it’s just the way it will be ! But not for all of course ! Fried worked for city for 5 years haddent seen from 5 years asked whear you work sad said I haven’t worked in5 I was shocked yup cause I work for the city,so all you horney house owners you are slaves to the city and banks expect tax increase yearly and the bank will give you a home equity loan ass well you have been brainwashed do the math it’s not the fantasy you are dreaming of you are a slave some people are making huge $$$$ from you ! Reminds me of whears Waldo and Halloween 10

#152 Tiger on 11.17.13 at 1:24 am

62 highwayman are you blind! Yup am always trying to bhehe the best, thanks. Maybe wheel pass on the hi way one day , me i have brown hair and drive a white ford cc that’s crew cab any whey have a g day!!!

#153 Tiger on 11.17.13 at 1:59 am

Man I do believe in angels you think it, it will happen!
Just an observation !

#154 Fed-up on 11.17.13 at 3:51 am

@#147 DUI on Money Road on 11.16.13 at 11:39 pm
_________________________________________________________________

If you need examples and answers for all that your drivel refers to, then you and your post are just too stupid to merit an intelligent response.

Look it up, but you’re probably too lazy and oblivious to do so…typical.

#155 maxx on 11.17.13 at 7:12 am

“….trumpeting that both sales and prices jumped 8% year/year.”

CREA can trumpet its manipulative little heart out. Exhortations to “buy now or buy never” are now impotent and ridiculous.

People are rapidly realizing that this idiotic phrase should be “buy now and pay forever”, with near-zero chance of ever building wealth, let alone financial independence.

#156 Mikeandev on 11.17.13 at 8:29 am

Followed his blog
Took his advice
Sold our dump
Signed up
Currently reaping
Tyvm

#157 Ralph Cramdown on 11.17.13 at 9:18 am

#150 Happity — “Interesting charts showing the USA economic renaissance that never was […]”

Funny how you can sleepwalk through a whole recovery just by looking at the wrong charts on the wrong sites. Here’s the right chart:

http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Big-Four-Economic-Indicators.php

Few things can be worse for your financial health than returning to sites which have a singular thesis or raison d’être and which try to find different data to support their preconceptions. There’s ALWAYS bad news out there. People who suggest that, back in the old days, it was easy to invest because it was obvious which way the wind was blowing at any given time (yet, strangely, not yet reflected in asset prices…) are misremembering or worse.

#158 Herb on 11.17.13 at 10:04 am

#154 Fed-up,

you’re blathering the same fact-less, purpose-driven wingnut “message” as the other neandercons trolling this site under varying handles. Keep up the good work of exposing the unreal universe “right” brains inhabit.

#159 Steven on 11.17.13 at 10:32 am

CREA scored the usual big headlines (“Average house price in Canada rises 8% to $391,820” – CBC) with its monthly presser trumpeting that both sales and prices jumped 8% year/year.

With the truth of statements like this and market wage rates young canadians won’t be buying their first home, getting married and reproducing before they collect their old age pension. This is anti white canadian genocide! Creating conditions of life that prevent the births of an identifiable group. Real estate prices are an instrument of genocide! $391,820/6000 man hours equals a minimum wage for living in canada of $65.31 an hour. If you are not getting paid this amount you will never live in canada. As I said before real estate is a mental and financial disease. The house prices and wage rates are genocidal.

“This is anti white canadian genocide!” You are a racist, no longer welcome on this blog. Slither off. — Garth

#160 DUI on Money Road on 11.17.13 at 11:06 am

#154 Fed-up on 11.17.13 at 3:51 am
—————————————
So predictable of a con-bot troll. Spouting off vitriolic one-liners but when challenged to substantiate your claims you can’t produce one shred of unequivocal evidence.

Are you scared of what the data may actually show?

Still waiting…..

#161 DUI on Money Road on 11.17.13 at 11:14 am

“This is anti white canadian genocide!” You are a racist, no longer welcome on this blog. Slither off. — Garth
—————————————————–
Agreed Garth. Interesting how some people seem to be blind to the fact that Canada is a melting pot of multiculturalism, established by immigration over a dozen generations, and this is what makes our country great. Just last night there was a piece on the first World War (began 100 years ago), and there was a story of a 1st generation Canadian (of Chinese ancestry) that rode his horse across the country so that he could join the army overseas in Europe. One example of a great (non-white) Canadian!

#162 Toronto_CA on 11.17.13 at 12:35 pm

Interesting look at why we’re heading for bad times:

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/11/16/canada-exports-manufacturing_n_4283794.html

Headline:
“Canada no longer knows how to sell anything to the world except oil and gas.”

The chart in this article is pretty damning, as is the stat that Auto Manufacturing will decline 28% in the next 10 years.

But that’s okay, we can keep flipping houses to eachother and that will save the day. Too bad new house sales have fallen off a cliff, which actually employs people who make things for a living instead of resales which just employ the hated stepchildren of soceity (realturds and lawyers).

#163 sciencemonkey on 11.17.13 at 12:43 pm

@159 Steven
I don’t think it’s an anti-white genocide, if for no other reason than it is most applicable in expensive large cities like Toronto where the highest proportions of non-whites live. If anything, I think it’s simply a side-effect of keeping the RE good times rolling for those who stand to benefit.

That being said, I do agree that real estate unaffordability works to lower birth rate. Of course one doesn’t need to own to have children, but the problem is the current X and Y genners are working on the model they observed their boomer parents carry out. On top of the RE unaffordability, the uncertain economy makes young people hesitant to have children they may not be able to reliably support.

I wouldn’t worry about it unless there comes a point in time where people worldwide no longer want to come here to be tax slaves. Appreciate the fact that you don’t have to go to the effort and expense of raising children, but there will still be new tax slaves to keep society going when we need lots of services/health care in our old age.

How is a reduced birth rate – anywhere – a bad thing? — Garth

#164 Smoking Man on 11.17.13 at 12:53 pm

#159 Steven on 11.17.13 at 10:32 am

If you follow the cool aid school obedience jobs prosperity I can see where the rasisim comes from.

Truth is, gays, white, black, purple orange people all have the same opportunity to start a business, find prey and make loot.

Trading time for wages in a global economy is a one way street to poverty.

Get with the program.

Start one.

Beilive me, after loot flowing in you will love every one.

#165 russell olausen on 11.17.13 at 1:21 pm

Think of countries as if they were houses in various states of repair. In the 60’s Canada (the house) was in the sticks and mainly occupied by strange immigrant types but of course Toronto was a beacon of hope for the future (Young St.). We knew we we different because of all the sand kicked in our faces, after all the Brits were still making our command decisions. Think of the rewards us early Canadians reap because #1 we kept on fixing up the 60’s dump and #2 the rest of the world got informed of our rustic charm and hidden wealth up our skirts. Party on boomers and do not let anybody rain on your well deserved parade.

#166 sciencemonkey on 11.17.13 at 2:00 pm

@me 163

I agree Garth, this planet is already grossly overpopulated, and I would like to see reduced birth rates everywhere. I suppose the only problem is unwinding it slowly so that the wrinklies don’t overwhelm the youngin’s, like what is happening to a degree in China.

#167 TurnerNation on 11.17.13 at 2:03 pm

Got this in my email today. Our forum host on the greasy “Howe Street” radio show.

http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2013/11/this-week-in-money-110/?utm_source=weeklyrecap&

– #48 Smoking Man

You should check out Blog Dog Lodge #2. It’s new, it’s corporate, but the staffers are very accomodating. I’m not hanging out in bars, usually, but this instant hit is a post-work joint 2 blocks from yours. Ends in ‘s.

– Things that go trump in the night. Fool me once…

http://www.trumpvancouver.com/

#168 recharts on 11.17.13 at 3:01 pm

Bolded below is a very shallow point of view I would say!
As long as Canada continues to accept immigrants proportionally with the size of the population in the origin country this will be a melting pot where some melt more than the others. In time this will have consequences and instead of a melting pot (what a shitty concept-excuse my language, if you could) you will have a majority starting to push things in their direction culturally and economically.

Here is the 2010 distribution (source:wikipedia)
Country Immigrants Percentage
1 Philippines 36,578 13
2 India 30,252 10.8
3 China 30,197 10.8
4 United Kingdom 9,499 3.4
5 United States 9,243 3.3
6 France 6,934 2.5
7 Iran 6,815 2.4
8 United Arab Emirates 6,796 2.4
9 Morocco 5,946 2.1
10 South Korea 5,539 2
……..

#161 DUI on Money Road on 11.17.13 at 11:14 am
“This is anti white canadian genocide!” You are a racist, no longer welcome on this blog. Slither off. — Garth
—————————————————–
Agreed Garth. Interesting how some people seem to be blind to the fact that Canada is a melting pot of multiculturalism, established by immigration over a dozen generations, and this is what makes our country great. Just last night there was a piece on the first World War (began 100 years ago), and there was a story of a 1st generation Canadian (of Chinese ancestry) that rode his horse across the country so that he could join the army overseas in Europe. One example of a great (non-white) Canadian!

It’s an open and free society. Deal with it. This topic will not be pursued. — Garth

#169 Penny Henny on 11.17.13 at 3:47 pm

How is a reduced birth rate – anywhere – a bad thing? — Garth
——————————————————-
Bad for places that have very little immigration. (see Japan).
Low birth rate, no immigration. Isn’t that why Japan has been stuck on hold since 1990?

#170 Dan on 11.17.13 at 3:58 pm

It’s an open and free society. Deal with it. This topic will not be pursued. — Garth

it’s an open and free society as long you do not discuss?????

You have the wrong blog. Go here. — Garth

#171 recharts on 11.17.13 at 4:10 pm

DELETED

#172 economictsunami on 11.17.13 at 4:57 pm

This BNN video must have been posted earlier but it is well worth a more critical listen.

Economist predicts long, painful housing correction: David Madani, Canada Economist with Capital Economics

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2013/11/15/Housing-Story-RAW.aspx

Madani himself rents his home.

Quite noticeable with many financial news interviews, the bulls get a free pass but the bears endure a rather bumpy ride…

#173 Smoking Man on 11.17.13 at 5:05 pm

I despise racist, Homo phobs,

However a bit sexist here. I hate straight guys with man purses, it’s just wrong……

#174 John Prine on 11.17.13 at 5:26 pm

#110 Fed-up on 11.16.13 at 3:27 pm
@#12 World According To Garth on 11.15.13 at 9:51 pm
47,000 new govt vampires sucking what little money the working poor have and getting a 1 million dollar pension when they retire. Awesome.
_____________________________________________

I have a friend that was a manager with a branch of the BC provincial government. He had 8 employees in his office all earning between $40,000 to $70,000 (secretaries to lawyers) The provincial government laid them all off in a “purge” to reduce big government. They were all hired back as “contractors” at a far greater cost but that department showed only one government employee in that particular office.
After 30 years of government service I have seen a lot of highly paid contracts go out in several levels of government that could have been handled by one government employee at a great savings to taxpayers. when governments reduce staff they usually have to pay private companies to do the work.

#175 Wonky on 11.17.13 at 5:29 pm

The fact that the real estate boards have now admitted to some statistical reporting issues is a good thing. However, the biggest problem that I see is the re-issuing of MLS#’s. There are quite a few homes in the Fraser Valley that have dropped their price in the 30-50k range but until they sell there is no evidence of this of course. The problem arises when after sitting for 6 months with these kind of drops in prices, “surprise” a new MLS # with a big shiny new number. Now if that home sells the statistics are all off and it may only look like a 3-5% drop. There are some big price drops happening and no one is aware, Canada will not have a “correction” because the #’s are all hidden.

#176 Dan on 11.17.13 at 5:47 pm

It’s an open and free society. Deal with it. This topic will not be pursued. — Garth

it’s an open and free society as long you do not discuss?????

You have the wrong blog. Go here. — Garth

Where do you find that stuf

#177 John Prine on 11.17.13 at 5:48 pm

@#128 DUI on Money Road on 11.16.13 at 7:23 pm

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Sounds like you’re a public sector fat cat from your 1 sided, narrow minded post.
That’s right we’re all Canadians. So why don’t you help fund my fat early retirement plan, dumpload of sick days and extended vacation time?

Oh I forgot, that’s my job…to fund both yours and mine.
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I retired from my last government job of 21 years(Tech) 3 years ago. For 10 years we had 1/4 sick day a month and no payout at retirement. I receive about $1,150 per month which includes a bridge until 65 when it drops to $750 per month. I’m sure that there are some “fat” pensions to upper managers and employees with certain degrees like doctors, lawyers etc… The idea that municipal and provincial employees pensions are “fat” is something that was created by people that just didn’t have any pension and did not plan their own retirement. My retirement spending money comes from stocks, mutual funds and GIC’s that myself and my wife put away starting at about 40 years of age (when we paid the mortgage off)

#178 Dan on 11.17.13 at 5:49 pm

You are right don’t talk about it and it will go away
Better to shine the light then to throw the mud

#179 Dan on 11.17.13 at 6:15 pm

It’s an open and free society. Deal with it. This topic will not be pursued. — Garth

it’s an open and free society as long you do not discuss?????

You have the wrong blog. Go here. — Garth

Where do you find that stuff

Just checked it out your right don’t need that here.