Choices

FORD

“Hey Garth: I hope that you don’t mind answering a question. I’m 5 years into paying off a condominium. The original amortization was to be over 30 years, and five years ago I locked into a 5 year fixed mortgage at 4.29% (which is up for renewal in 4 months). I’m in Alberta (Calgary) and I bought relatively low $234,900 for 1000 sq ft., so right now, I am still above water.

“The question is this. Would you suggest a 5 year fixed at 3.45% or 10 year fixed at 4.24%?

“I know that I can break the 10 year fixed after 5 years (and pay 3 months interest to refinance). I know that I may be moving within the next 5 years, but CIBC assures me that I can port either mortgage (the 5 year or 10 year) to another residence. When I marry, and my spouse and I are looking at a place, the chances are that we will go with porting her mortgage. So one of us would be forced to sell and would be penalized on the mortgage amount remaining… Given all that context, what are your thoughts on 5 year fixed versus 10 year fixed in today’s environment? I am in my late 30s if that makes any difference.

“Thanks Garth. Please don’t publish this question. Byron.”

Oops. Too bad, Byron. Now your mom knows you’re going to marry her. And port that girl’s mortgage, which gets me excited just typing it.

Actually all that ‘context’ you provided is irrelevant to the question of how to borrow, other than confirming you’re overthinking things. (Why not marry the GF now, dump your condo and move in with her?) Questions like this were more interesting a year ago when people were freaking over looming rate hikes (which came). As 2013 dawned the advice for the worried was to lock into a 10-year loan at little more than 3.5%. It was an absurdly low rate, especially since it turns into an open mortgage after just five years.

But no more. Given what’s happened in the world over the past months, there;s but one sane strategy when it comes to your mortgage.

So what’s changed?

For starters, the economy’s stalling. Job creation is down to a trickle, commodity prices have slumped, corps are shifting back into layoff mode, and wage gains aren’t. As I’ve said a few times lately, we are closer to deflation than inflation, with central bankers willing to risk an even bigger credit bubble to keep the demon of falling prices at bay.

So the Bank of Canada has thrown in the towel. Gone is any talk of raising the bank’s key rate, which means the prime will be stuck at 3% for a long time. Maybe well into 2015. As a result, the cost of a variable rate mortgage will stay exactly where it is.

But expect the opposite with fixed rates. In the last few days the chatter over what the US Fed (its central bank) will do in the next few weeks has grown cacophonous. Better-than-expected economic growth numbers and swelling job-creation stats have rekindled talk about the Fed starting to taper away its massive monthly bond-buying stimulus program. Some think it could start next month. Most believe it’ll happen in March. But happen it will.

The reaction is predictable. Bonds get less valuable as demand for them drops, so bond prices decline and yields rise. Since fixed-rate mortgages are funded in the bond market, that usually translates into more costly five-year home loans – exactly what happened last spring when they bloated a full 1%. (By the way, notice how the bankers never dropped those rates after bonds settled back down?) And if 5-year mortgages pop again, then so will 10-year offerings.

So, variable rates are likely to stay cheap. Fixed rates are likely to rise. Now what?

Go short, obviously. The posted rate for a VRM at the banks is 3%, but you should easily get prime minus 40 basis points if you tell [email protected] she has dreamy eyes. That’s a choice between 2.6% variable or 3.5% fixed (and rising). Not even close.

But won’t mortgage rates be higher five years from now? You bet. However five years is half your dog’s entire life – in other words, a long time in which lots can change. If you have the chance to finance your house at a rate which is 26% lower for a good chunk of that period, why not take it? Pay the minimum and invest the rest, then pay off more principal upon renewal. Besides, you can always convert a variable into a fixed with one phone call when a rate hike threatens.

Wiser still, get an all-in-one financing package (such as Manulife One) which treats your home loan like a line of credit. Pay as much or as little as you want monthly, face no prepayment penalties, use investment returns to grind down the principal and stop stressing out your GF by diddling with her mortgage.

There ya go, Byron. Good luck with your quest for a personality.

138 comments ↓

#1 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.13.13 at 8:51 pm

Garth’s advice is all about the ladies tonight… should this guy “tell [email protected] she has dreamy eyes” before or after marrying the GF and moving in?

#2 blase on 11.13.13 at 8:54 pm

What’s the downside to the Manulife One product?

#3 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.13.13 at 8:54 pm

Oh ya — here’s a secret for the blog… Garth may be a finance guru, but he sucks at lip syncing:
http://ca.eonline.com/shows/the_soup/news/480314/this-ain-t-your-dad-s-lip-sync-fail

#4 Forzudo on 11.13.13 at 8:58 pm

Variable mortgages are almost always better than fixed-rate mortgages.

#5 Babblemaster on 11.13.13 at 9:00 pm

The threat of rising interest rates has been here for the last 5 years and, essentially, nothing has happened. Probably won’t happen for a long. I’d go with a VRM. Gives you more freedom when you need to sell. Freedom is something you will lose when you get married.

#6 Suede on 11.13.13 at 9:05 pm

Dow Jones new all-time high but trading at the end-rink boards of the upper channel on the daily level

= time for a breather.

#7 Bill Gable on 11.13.13 at 9:18 pm

One of the funniest pieces I have read in a long time.

Absolutely superb. Bravo.

#8 recharts on 11.13.13 at 9:22 pm

Just got off the phone w a veteran TO condo realtor: “Completed, unsold developer condo inventory WAY higher than reported by CMHC”
https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/statuses/400735723084476416

Many bulls like to say that in the absence of a trigger the Canadian RE market will keep going up.

Many times we fail to see what is under our noses , by always looking somewhere else for what we are searching for.
I am seeing TROUBLE in the TO condo resale market and officially there is trouble for this segment in Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec city. If BoC is wright this will be the beginning of the end

#9 Ken R on 11.13.13 at 9:22 pm

If the [email protected] has dreamy eyes, why not marry her. Seems obvious to me.

#10 Yitzhak Rabin on 11.13.13 at 9:24 pm

The FED will not taper. Don’t fall for that again so quickly. Just like Charlie Brown and the football, it will be pulled away.

The next move is to increase QE as it is the only thing driving this phony “recovery” and stock market rally.

#11 Smoking Man on 11.13.13 at 9:25 pm

FORD Still Standing Big.

Now this breaking news, Hookers, Coke, Oxy, load up you thin men and tough girls Ready……… shoot, aim.

With the Guns are a blazing, Bombs dropping, artillery shells bouncing of that belly. The mob outside city hall crying for blood.

But this def dumb and blind tubby kid still plays mean pin ball.

The herd, the same herd that keeps buying crazy TO real estate and keeps the basement dwellers down in the dungeon have spoken.

They want his head on a stick.

Forget Layton with a sore back, Power Plants, Billions down the tube.

The Herd has mobilized. They taste blood, who cares about that important stuff right now we are going to a lynching damn it.

Listening to Evan Solomon tonight on CBC they had this wangless red head dude flipping out at Ford like someone just stole his man purse.

All the talking heads agree on the same thing, if he worked in the private sector he would be fired.

See the flaw in that statement and thinking you unenlightened blog dogs.

They have no concept of being the boss or the owner. They assume every member of the audience is a fellow slave.

All opinions on the show are from the perspectives of a rule following tax farming obedient salves.

Only the owner can fire himself. That’s how Ford thinks because he’s an owner.

This is revenge of the slaves, get even with the boss, here we have a business man, a rich business man, who doesn’t follow rules well, and has and ego bigger than his belly.

Forget that he does a great job and keeps the foxes out of the till holding your money.

The ego thing is what gets them the most. Arrogance and Self Righteousness, ah the needle in the eyeball of the schooled.

Years and years of schooling and slave training ensures that Ego’s will not be tolerated in a civilized society, workers must work. BIG Ego’s are exclusively reserved for the owners and don’t forget it, now keep your head down slave and work, work, work, work.

All the councilors, all the media reporters are probably mortgaged up the nines, they need their jobs, live pay check to pay check. They are owned. They can’t connect with the way Ford thinks.

Ford don’t need his Job, he’s rich. I don’t even think he collects a pay check.

His biggest crime That EVIL EGO!!!! The more he’s attacked the greater his resolve.

That’s how Smoking Men think.

A slave repents, an owner goes for revenge.

Every multi millionaire I have met in my travels has one thing in common, we have huge EGO’s.

Every person that I have met that is in poverty have one thing in common, no EGO.

Want to be rich kids, just GROW ONE.

The pieces will effortlessly fall into place. (It’s the real Secret)

The toughest alpha’s make the biggest loot and get the pretty girls.

Why I’m I sharing the Secret?

The need to be a philanthropist with out parting with gambling chips I guess.

#12 Freedom First on 11.13.13 at 9:43 pm

#5 Babblemaster- “Freedom is something you will lose when you get married”

Thank you Babblemaster! My favorite quote of the year! I am going to put it on the fridge as a reminder. And no to everyone, I am honest with every girlfriend I have. From the very beginning the woman I am going with at the time knows I will not be living with, or marrying anyone, for all of the obvious reasons an aware man knows today. Marriage today is the most “High Risk” financial decision for a man in todays’ world. Don’t worry about having kids, 100% birth control method for a man is easily reversible. I know that, the surgeon himself told me. Remember, always, Freedom First. Live and Let Live.

#13 Not 1st on 11.13.13 at 10:09 pm

Garth you need to go on the ground in Calgary and see for yourself what is going on there. My friend in the patch tells me the heavy crude differential is around $40 bucks which means $95 WTI minus $45 equals $50 per bbl realized price. That makes a lot of oil sands projects losers. There is a hiring freeze on and a lot of outsourcing happening. BUT the city is expanding like oil is $150 buck ala 2008. Total insanity.

#14 Rob on 11.13.13 at 10:10 pm

One of my friends does plaster work at a new condo in Toronto. He told me it sounds like that condo developer might be going bankrupt. Nothing selling. But he has plenty of work he’s off to another condo in December to work at.

#15 Smoking Man on 11.13.13 at 10:22 pm

The pinkos are good.

New Ford allegations timely released today.

At the same time OPP taking to Wynn about gas plant emails. which will eventually find no wrong doing. But see we are fair.

Is Wynn going to wake up with 50 reporters on her driveway in morning?

#16 Happity on 11.13.13 at 10:27 pm

“swelling job-creation stats”…

… are really a majority of minimum wage part time jobs as a waiter or wall mart employee who have nobamacare.

Look to Cisco, their recent report is telling of the USA economic renaissance.

The taper heads who got punked like Chumps will be in for an even worse awakening in 2014.

#17 [email protected] on 11.13.13 at 10:33 pm

Garth, what about the insurance they try to sell you when you take on a mortgage that will pay your mortgage in the sad event of croaking and you going to heaven with the 66 Vs awaiting for $40 per month. Haven’t seen this topic on here yet.

Just say no. — Garth

#18 wallflower on 11.13.13 at 10:36 pm

Norway falling and as I recall… they were just a tad further “out there” on the same end of the teeter totter as Canada. So, how different is Canada?

#19 TurnerNation on 11.13.13 at 10:45 pm

Ha my ‘sanctions’ against Loblaws are on the right side.
Theirs and Metro’s stock slammed downwards.

Over to the [email protected] (the nice lady at the butchers/bakery).


Loblaw, Metro earnings show trouble at the grocery till

The Globe and Mail – 14 hours ago
Mounting competition from giant U.S. chains is forcing supermarkets to lower their prices, a trend that hit grocers Loblaw Cos. Ltd.
Loblaw, Metro profits fall as competition intensifies Toronto Sun
Food fight among Canadian retailers takes toll on Loblaw, Metro Financial Post

#20 John on 11.13.13 at 10:50 pm

#15 Is Wynn going to wake up with 50 reporters on her driveway in morning?

Umm not unless she get’s caught smoking crack tonight.. or a DUI.. or caught buying drugs…

#21 Valleyboy on 11.13.13 at 10:58 pm

Taper talk

If rates go to high in the US the derivative bubble and housing bubble will explode. This would probably send interest rates through the roof. As People / countries continue to exit the US bond market the fed has no choice but to buy the Bonds to protected its owners / the US banks. So as the real underlying factors continue to come to the surface. taper it wont, increase QE it will.

#22 NoName on 11.13.13 at 11:11 pm

interesting

Economists Discover the Poor Behave Differently From the Rich
http://goo.gl/qt7zJ8

How much money do the top technology companies make per second?
http://goo.gl/qTlaj9

good read on behavioral economics using social psychology to modify behavior
http://goo.gl/LuJZn4

#23 KommyKim on 11.13.13 at 11:12 pm

RE: #11 Smoking Man on 11.13.13 at 9:25 pm
The ego thing is what gets them the most. Arrogance and Self Righteousness, ah the needle in the eyeball of the schooled.

Nice job of getting my post from a previous thread in there!

But, see that’s just my point. Ego, while it can be a benefit, is a double edged sword. Too big of an ego prevents you from stepping outside yourself and seeing a broader perspective. A big ego will blind you to your own flaws and ultimately lead to your demise. Hence Fords humongous ego prevents him from seeing that he has a drug problem before it gets out of hand. He has to crash and burn to see it.

#24 Mr Man on 11.13.13 at 11:14 pm

A variable is good for now. But you keep talking about rates rising, how is a variable better?

#25 Dean Mason on 11.13.13 at 11:27 pm

Wait until another recession or economic downturn. Those higher interest rates will fizzle fast.

I stay away from people with names that have the opposite meaning, Trudeau, Wynn, get it.

#26 Julia on 11.13.13 at 11:32 pm

#11 Smoking Man on 11.13.13 at 9:25 pm

You are right on the money SM! Absolutely. People are perplexed with his behaviour. Business owners and dictators can’t be fired or need to step down. They need not operate within the bureaucracy. There are no rules or etiquette that we slaves are forced to play by and are only familiar with. You can’t lose if you are playing a different game than your opponent. Fascinating to watch indeed.

#27 Smoking Man on 11.13.13 at 11:35 pm

#20 John on 11.13.13 at 10:50 pm
#15 Is Wynn going to wake up with 50 reporters on her driveway in morning?

Umm not unless she get’s caught smoking crack tonight.. or a DUI.. or caught buying drugs…
…………………………………

So true, billion here , billion there, no one cares about that.

But a celebrity scandal…..Popcorn and beer time.

#28 Obvious Truth on 11.13.13 at 11:36 pm

#7

Totally agree :)

Many layers of laughs.

#29 Smoking Man on 11.13.13 at 11:38 pm

#23 KommyKim on 11.13.13 at 11:12 pm
RE: #11 Smoking Man on 11.13.13 at 9:25 pm
The ego thing is what gets them the most. Arrogance and Self Righteousness, ah the needle in the eyeball of the schooled.

Nice job of getting my post from a previous thread in there!

But, see that’s just my point. Ego, while it can be a benefit, is a double edged sword. Too big of an ego prevents you from stepping outside yourself and seeing a broader perspective. A big ego will blind you to your own flaws and ultimately lead to your demise. Hence Fords humongous ego prevents him from seeing that he has a drug problem before it gets out of hand. He has to crash and burn to see it.
……………………………………..

Your right He has to crash and burn to see it.
Take it it from me been there done that.

But attacking him only prolongs it. Makes it worse.

The lush needs to make the call or it wont work.

#30 Scott in Toronto on 11.13.13 at 11:45 pm

We just renewed our mortgage on Oct 1st. We told [email protected] to go ahead and keep us variable (P-0.4) as we had a hunch the prime rate would not be rising anytime soon.

Temporarily thought about selling some investments to pay a good chunk off at renewal but why bother? ETF investments continue to grow steadily with great dividend returns while the mortgage is basically free money!

#31 Basil Fawlty on 11.13.13 at 11:53 pm

The consensus opinion on tapering was incorrect in September and is wrong about 2014. The ongoing liquidity injections of $85B/month have helped create a massive bubble in stocks and bonds. Higher interest rates through tapering will kill stock and bond values,
In addition, there are hundreds of trillions in interest rate derivatives that depend on low interest rates to maintain their value.
Finally, the current US labour participation rate is 62.8%, the lowest since 1978.
QE will increase due to the US depression.

#32 greaterfool2013 on 11.14.13 at 12:10 am

oh. nice garth.

I few months ago you were trashing the m1.

I guess the [email protected] got you a referral program.

LOL

As Rob Ford says, it’s all in how you use it. — Garth

#33 InvestX on 11.14.13 at 12:40 am

Well, well, well…

Rates still relatively low, and still only the threat of rising rates. Rates were expected to be well higher at this point.

Hey, but they couldn’t stay low for a while, a la Japan. It’s diffeent here.

#34 Waterloo Resident on 11.14.13 at 12:41 am

Toronto women = CRAZY

I just read a few stories of how women in Toronto LOVE something called ‘MetroSexual’ men.

YUCK !!!!

What happened to women who love ordinary guys like me and most other normal men?

#35 Tom from Mississauga on 11.14.13 at 1:11 am

“I’m 5 years into paying off a condominium.”
Almost done. Way to go!

#36 wallflower on 11.14.13 at 1:14 am

Waterloo Resident on 11.14.13 at 12:41 am

I am thinking, there is a forum out there, somewhere, for you.
Move along.

However, since Garth permitted the comment, does anybody know where I can buy Christmas cards that are NOT Made in China?

#37 Milk in the Cowtown on 11.14.13 at 1:15 am

#24 Mr Man on 11.13.13 at 11:14 pm
A variable is good for now. But you keep talking about rates rising, how is a variable better?
_____________________________________________

Ask yourself how many 0.25% monthly increases in the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate, that you can absorb, before it would be above the current fixed rate. Presumably, the BoC will go up cautiously, once it does start to test the water with rate increases. Bank all of the money you’re saving before then.

#38 Son of Ponzi on 11.14.13 at 1:23 am

Check this one out.
New RE company in Richmond, marketing aggressively to Chinese Clientel.
http://newcoast.ca/m/our-team

#39 Cyclist on 11.14.13 at 2:23 am

34 Waterloo – I wear spandex and shave my legs, and I dont even live in TO or Van.

#40 Mark on 11.14.13 at 2:36 am

It shouldn’t always be assumed that spreads on variable rate products will remain ultra-low. Remember that variable rate borrowers are the ultimate liquidity backstops of the bank. Hence, if there is any sort of funding crisis, it will be felt in the variable rate products first.

#41 betamax on 11.14.13 at 3:17 am

Average consumer debt (non-mortgage) in Vancouver now over $40k. Now we know how they’re paying those exorbitant mortgages — by racking up credit cards and lines of credit to pay for everything else.

This. will. not. end. well.

#42 Jane24 on 11.14.13 at 3:59 am

Rob Ford has finally graduated from the Daily Mail here in England to last night’s lead on Sky News TV. Please note that the story was carried direct from Washington because obviously Canada does not warrant a reporter kept on the ground.

General consensus with my friends is ‘who cares about the drugs, but boy is that chap fat !”

#43 PokerCat on 11.14.13 at 5:08 am

@17 nearmiltom

That type of insurance is a tax on the stupid and on the poor who can’t qualify for anything better. If you don’t believe me, then do yourself a favour, cost out balance insurance versus a regular term life insurance policy that you get from a broker. If you are really accident prone, and can’t save an emergency fund, then cost out disability insurance as well.

The money you’ll save by doing the exercise is worth the time spent.

#44 P.Bocanegra on 11.14.13 at 5:28 am

#11
Yeah, looks like Rob Ford isn’t the only one who needs some help.

#45 Sgip on 11.14.13 at 5:48 am

Ololololololololololozzzz

#46 Live within your means on 11.14.13 at 7:01 am

#17 [email protected] on 11.13.13 at 10:33 pm
Garth, what about the insurance they try to sell you when you take on a mortgage that will pay your mortgage in the sad event of croaking and you going to heaven with the 66 Vs awaiting for $40 per month. Haven’t seen this topic on here yet.

Just say no. — Garth
……………………………..

Eons ago I knew a lady who had an insurance policy – no idea with which co. Her hubby died shortly after they bought their home & she was left w/2 young children to raise. She was glad they took out that policy. Just saying.

#47 Ronaldo on 11.14.13 at 7:19 am

#37 Milk in the Cowtown

”Ask yourself how many 0.25% monthly increases in the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate, that you can absorb, before it would be above the current fixed rate. Presumably, the BoC will go up cautiously, once it does start to test the water with rate increases. Bank all of the money you’re saving before then.”

Exactly. And with the banks offering variables at Prime Minus 1.5 to 2% back in the days that he first bought the condo, he would have reduced his mortgage payments in half and saved a stash of cash when the BOC lowered the prime rates in the early part of 2009. Variable has been the way to go for a good long time now and will be in the years to come.

#48 Derek R on 11.14.13 at 7:29 am

#42 Jane24 on 11.14.13 at 3:59 am wrote:
Rob Ford has finally graduated from the Daily Mail here in England to last night’s lead on Sky News TV.

He’s made it on Australian TV too. I was in Melbourne on vacation a couple of days ago and saw the story mentioned. Really surprised to see it since you don’t get much Canuck news on Aussie TV (only other big Canadian item is Saputo bidding to take over an Australian dairy company) but I guess it’s a funny for the Australians.

Anyway I’m in Auckland now, so can’t wait to see if he’s a joke on NZ TV too.

#49 economictsunami on 11.14.13 at 7:40 am

“… with central bankers willing to risk an even bigger credit bubble to keep the demon of falling prices at bay.”

Therein lies the crux of the problem.

After the 2008 meltdown we had an unprecedented co ordinated effort on behalf of the G20 to spend 2% of their GDP on government stimulus; in order to slow the rate of economic descent.

Governments also implemented coordinated efforts to help rescue the financial system from their own hubris and bad bets, through their central banks.

All of this appeared to be done in an effort to stabilize, restore confidence in a badly broken system and achieve escape velocity to more ‘normal’ growth rates.

The problem being, we now understand, what were once considered normal growth rates were mainly predicated on both massive amounts of secure (HELOC) and unsecured (CC) lines of credit.

It has finally begun to dawn on policy analysts/ advisers that problems with the economic/ financial system are structural in nature which cannot be properly addressed through further thoughtless, easy consumer credit, houcus pocus.

Now what?

What an Ex-FOMC Governor (Andrew Huszar) Wants to Tell You about the Fed…

http://www.cyniconomics.com/2013/11/13/what-an-ex-fomc-governor-really-wants-to-tell-you-about-the-fed/

His video interview on Bloomberg this morning:

QE Whistleblower Warns “We Are Eerily Similar To 2008”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-13/qe-whistleblower-warns-we-are-eerily-similar-2008

The interviewers constantly interrupted and really never gave Huszar an opportunity to fully explain himself.

They too don’t want to hear that spiking the punchbowl after QE1 was a big mistake which will be very delicate to extricate themselves from…

#50 live within your means on 11.14.13 at 8:14 am

Underground Bicycle Parking Systems in Japan

http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=pcZSU40RBrg

Ingenious

#51 torontorocks on 11.14.13 at 8:19 am

#11 Smoking Man – absolutely bang on. Layton gets caught in a rub and tug, he’s Toronto’s own Norman Bethune (who died miserable and alone in China) and gets a statue. George Slitherman spends 1bn on e-health, sole-sources Samsung and instill green power, killing our hydro rates, he’s just ‘furioussss’ (say it with a listhp). McGuinty? 1bn on 2 votes and retires with a pension into the sunset on the backs of the taxpayers. Jane Stewart and the billion dollar HRDC scandal. Nothing like this lynching on Ford who’s a standup guy, gets it done, supports ALL constituents when he was a Councillor and basically kept the d-bags like Vaughan and Layton Jr and the rest of the queens that wear pants in this town out of commission. Now they want him out and are using this as an excuse. We got a party mayor who’s just like us all and the chattering class self righteous a-holes tut-tut down their noses at him while sniffing each other’s a$$es at the latest fundraiser to find out what private school their 8 year old goes to. Like we’re in Switzerland now. I love it. But you’re right about the man-girls in this town. How many girls I know have had to buy their seeds to start a family because there aren’t any men in this town, torontorocks excepted.

#52 maxx on 11.14.13 at 8:53 am

Hey blog dawgs, notice the angry red dots have transformed to frozen, immobile blue ones?

#53 Ralph Cramdown on 11.14.13 at 8:56 am

#49 economictsunami — “What an Ex-FOMC Governor (Andrew Huszar) Wants to Tell You about the Fed…”

It’s nice to see how the appeal to authority works. He wasn’t a governor. He wasn’t on the FOMC. He was an employee. He’s such a lowly maggot that I can’t even find his employment history, education or job titles to decide how much weight I should give his opinions. So I shall give them none. It isn’t that people without titles or letters can’t be right, but my time is precious, and stuff that appears in the WSJ’s opinion section or Zerohedge generally aren’t worth consideration.

#54 Smoking Man on 11.14.13 at 9:13 am

#51 torontorocks on 11.14.13 at 8:19 am

Brilliant Sir.

Look how the herd reacts, I have been telling garth for years it’s the herd here silly. Fundamentals take a back seat when you are dealing with zombies toting Man purses.

Of course she will talk the sweety wife into granite and debt.

Finally I think garth is getting it.

#55 The disaster in brewing in the TO Condo market on 11.14.13 at 9:13 am

Do not say you weren’t warned!
So far they have sold 290 condos in 416.
Last year’s mid month report reads 448 units (-21% down YoY)
Like last month, I might not have the complete data BUT there is no way I can miss hundreds of units in the Condo category while the data is 99% correct for SFHs!!!
So, they have 3-4 days left till they release their reports. That should add around 90 more units bringing the total to 380 units!! That would be around 13% down compared with the last year which is already down 21% compared with 2011. Even if my numbers are off and we match the 2012 numbers we are still 21% down.

Keep in mind that since 2011 massive inventory has been released to the market. This is getting scary. Yesterday I quoted Ben Rabidoux who was saying that the new condo sales numbers released by CHMC are “optimistic”. Hmmm..

Here are a couple of front runners.

MLS# E2757991 E2768584 C2731955 W2758915 E2757991
Asking 579000 199500 589000 229000 399000
Sold 350000 170000 510000 199000 350000
% 60 85 87 87 88

Declared DOM 37 22 67 37 37
Real DOM 157 179 179 35 103
Last Price Drop -79100 -12900 -30000 -20000 -10000

#56 jess on 11.14.13 at 9:25 am

enablers growin’ some now seem to be shrinking with all that exta weight

…”When Kwame Kilpatrick became mayor of Detroit in 2002, he promised to revitalize the city. Instead, he shamelessly used his position to steal from the citizens he had vowed to serve.

“Criminal activity was a way of life for him, and he constantly used the power of his office to look for new opportunities to make money illegally,” said Special Agent Robert Beeckman, who investigated the mayor and his corrupt regime for eight years.

Last month, a federal judge sentenced Kilpatrick to a 28-year prison term for his role in a wide-ranging racketeering conspiracy that included extortion, bribery, and fraud. Thirty-two others have also been convicted of crimes in connection with the case, including Kilpatrick’s contractor friend Bobby Ferguson, who received a 21-year jail term.

http://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2013/november/public-corruption-inside-the-kwame-kilpatrick-case

“Michigan voters, however, have made themselves heard. They overwhelmingly approved a ballot proposal amending the state’s constitution to place a 20-year ban on public officials convicted of felonies alleging violations relating to corruption from holding an elected or appointed position with control over public assets or public policy
=======
bankster transaction fees
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-12/irs-seeks-zkb-client-records-from-citigroup-bny-mellon.html

#57 Ralph Cramdown on 11.14.13 at 9:55 am

Here’s your daily not-quite-so-different-here-after-all. Mortgage qualifying for the self-employed.

“You would qualify the same way your full-time employed friends are – a 2-year average of Notice of Assessment income is used to determine your qualifying potential. […] Furthermore, some lenders will allow me to add 15% to this number if I need to, to help the qualifying ratios be more acceptable for the lender and insurer (if necessary).”

Gross it up, baby! Lenders cut out the hassle and inconvenience of lying on applications by allowing you to tell the truth and qualifying you on more than your actual income anyway.

Source: http://www.ratehub.ca/mortgage-blog/2013/11/getting-a-self-employed-mortgage-isnt-easy/

#58 Penny Henny on 11.14.13 at 9:55 am

That’s how Smoking Men think.

A slave repents, an owner goes for revenge.
—————————————————
Hey Smoky, you described H to a tee.
I’m surprised you don’t have a man crush for him.

#59 economictsunami on 11.14.13 at 10:17 am

#53

Forget about Zerohedge & Business Insider’s at times inaccurate or sensational headlines.

As for Huszar, feel free to attack his hypothesis and ideas.

You are too concerned with who he is and less so about what he’s saying.

In my book, who are does not make what you say less credible…

#60 Jeff in Moose Jaw on 11.14.13 at 10:25 am

Morning Garth – When will you be releasing another book? looking forward to it.

Morning Smoking Man – When will you release your first book? looking forward to it.

Would enjoy reading both. Even though totally different authors.

#61 Smoking Man on 11.14.13 at 10:27 am

#58 Penny Henny on 11.14.13 at 9:55 amThat’s how Smoking Men think.A slave repents, an owner goes for revenge.—————————————————

Hey Smoky, you described H to a tee.I’m surprised you don’t have a man crush for him

………..

Only one man I have ever had a man crush for, Tony T

Bunch of us where golfing, on the back 9 we are hammered, on an elevated T of to the side 100 foot almost vertical drop into the river.

Tony T, tees up, misses the ball completely, spins, falls, and goes over the cliff. We think shit he’s dead……..

We hear moans from the valley below, he says anyone see where my ball landed… Ha.

I said, you got a hole in one, pot head Steve takes his ball and drops it in the hole.

He climbs back up bleeding busted and runs to the pin.

Happiest day of his life, he bought the rounds and the lap dances that night.

Love that guy.

#62 Richmon Hill -the hottest area in GTA on 11.14.13 at 10:35 am

Since May 2013 the Avg price went up 75K to 779K (10%) while the median price followed closely, up 50K to 700K

I am very happy about that, this is because there is no more land in that area.
Is this the area where 3-9 families contribute to paying the same house?

The rising has been constant, there is no match in any other area for what is happening there. Toronto and any other GTA area are no match for this.

#63 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.14.13 at 10:36 am

I used to think, despite the negativity on this blog, my participation was not having an adverse effect on my real estate business. WRONG!

Since abstaining from participation on this blog my business has gone parabolic and is, wow, AWESOME! Life is awesome. You ought to try it.

#64 MiniMe on 11.14.13 at 10:59 am

@Devil’s advocate #63

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parabola

How did your stupidity go? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth)

#65 Buy? Curious? on 11.14.13 at 11:26 am

Hey Garth! You’re good at giving advice. What about Rob Ford? What advice would you give him? Should he sell his house, invest the proceeds in a diversifided investment plan and rent or should he lock in now to a 10yr mortgage rate?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYB3Fx0a8-4

#66 Cyclist on 11.14.13 at 11:28 am

50 LWYM – I could never do that to my baby……..

#67 Ralph Cramdown on 11.14.13 at 11:31 am

#59 economictsunami — “As for Huszar, feel free to attack his hypothesis and ideas. You are too concerned with who he is and less so about what he’s saying.”

The headlines:

What an Ex-FOMC Governor (Andrew Huszar) Wants to Tell You about the Fed…

QE Whistleblower Warns “We Are Eerily Similar To 2008″

One lies about his title, the other promises insider revelations. But you know what? I bet if I read the articles, all I’d discover is 1. The Fed has bought a lot of bonds and 2. For a lot of Americans, the economy is still in the crapper. But I already knew that! Those headlines are cheap linkbait, and Zerohedge is a waste of time. The medium is the message.

#68 Smoking Man on 11.14.13 at 11:32 am

After all is said and done Ford will go down in infamy with his latest quote. And probably his last as a public official.

‘I have more than enough to eat at home’

#69 Ralph Cramdown on 11.14.13 at 11:42 am

#63 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate

Post hoc ergo propter hoc

We got a lot done here while you were gone, too.

#70 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.14.13 at 11:46 am

@ #27 Smoking Man on 11.13.13 at 11:35 pm
#20 John on 11.13.13 at 10:50 pm
#15 Is Wynn going to wake up with 50 reporters on her driveway in morning?

Umm not unless she get’s caught smoking crack tonight.. or a DUI.. or caught buying drugs…
…………………………………

So true, billion here , billion there, no one cares about that.

But a celebrity scandal…..Popcorn and beer time.

—————————-

Again, I’ll make the point that every level of government deserves the same treatment.

Ford wastes $1B on a subway when there was a fully funded Scarborough LRT… PLUS there are cancellation fees on the LRT plans.

McGuinty/Wynne cancel gas plants earlier than they needed to (the other parties were also running on a platform of cancelling the plants).

McGuinty wasted $$$ on eHealth.

Harper and F wasted money on EVERYTHING:
Senators, Fighter Jets, deficit-creating GST cuts, “Economic Action Plan” nonsense (why are there still Ads on TV???), G20 fake lakes, bailouts, etc.

Make sure you spread around that outrage!

#71 sciencemonkey on 11.14.13 at 12:03 pm

Lower taxes are always nice from my joe-sixpack point of view. However, I don’t see how lowering the GST by 2% is supposed to help me. Whoopee, I pay $100 less in taxes a year. Is it worth it if it is so damaging to Canada’s bottom line?

Also, let’s not not even get into how much MORE tax we pay with the introduction of the HST.

#72 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.14.13 at 12:14 pm

#51 torontorocks on 11.14.13 at 8:19 am
#11 Smoking Man – absolutely bang on. Layton gets caught in a rub and tug, he’s Toronto’s own Norman Bethune (who died miserable and alone in China) and gets a statue. George Slitherman spends 1bn on e-health, sole-sources Samsung and instill green power, killing our hydro rates, he’s just ‘furioussss’ (say it with a listhp). McGuinty? 1bn on 2 votes and retires with a pension into the sunset on the backs of the taxpayers. Jane Stewart and the billion dollar HRDC scandal. Nothing like this lynching on Ford who’s a standup guy, gets it done, supports ALL constituents when he was a Councillor and basically kept the d-bags like Vaughan and Layton Jr and the rest of the queens that wear pants in this town out of commission. Now they want him out and are using this as an excuse. We got a party mayor who’s just like us all and the chattering class self righteous a-holes tut-tut down their noses at him while sniffing each other’s a$$es at the latest fundraiser to find out what private school their 8 year old goes to. Like we’re in Switzerland now. I love it. But you’re right about the man-girls in this town. How many girls I know have had to buy their seeds to start a family because there aren’t any men in this town, torontorocks excepted.

……………………………………………………………………..
Moved out of the city 30 years ago as I slowly noticed every mayor wore a longer and longer dress Barbara Hall and June Rowlands excepted. They all bent over at the drop of the unions hats. Nobody has any kahunas in this city! Rob Fords kahunas must be pretty dam huge as he hasn’t even flinched in the face of all this crap. I would consider moving back to the city if they ever elected a Mayor that had some business sense, resilience, self-belief, and pride. Holy Crap you already have that in Robbie plus big balls!!!! I’m packing my bags now and burning my dress. Don’t want to miss the Rob Ford show before it goes into re-runs.

#73 frank le skank on 11.14.13 at 12:23 pm

#62 Richmon Hill -the hottest area in GTA on 11.14.13 at 10:35 am
Since May 2013 the Avg price went up 75K to 779K (10%) while the median price followed closely, up 50K to 700K

I am very happy about that, this is because there is no more land in that area.
Is this the area where 3-9 families contribute to paying the same house?

The rising has been constant, there is no match in any other area for what is happening there. Toronto and any other GTA area are no match for this.

=====================================

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight!!!

#74 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.14.13 at 12:24 pm

Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne says police and the justice system should take action following Toronto mayor’s shocking admission, ya and he did some really bad stuff, and ya he is on drugs, ya and he has prostitues, ya and he drinks vodka, ya and he wears pants, ya and I’m running out of stuff to deflect my own Billion dollar screw-up. Oops I forgot I wear pants too!

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/11/05/kathleen-wynne-rob-ford-crack_n_4220755.html?utm_hp_ref=kathleen-wynne

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/10/23/ontario-gas-plant-scandal_n_4149528.html?utm_hp_ref=kathleen-wynne

#75 Form Man on 11.14.13 at 12:30 pm

#63 DA

glad things have picked up for you, we were sad to see you struggling earlier.
Sales are steady in Kelowna, but prices are still falling according to OMREB, ( unsurprisingly, as MOI is at 10.6 )
The original developers of Sopa Square did not manage to survive ( just as I predicted ).
We are now 4 years since the GFC and 4 years since property prices in Kelowna peaked. No sign yet of prices turning up.
Looks like you were dead wrong and we were dead right………….

#76 economictsunami on 11.14.13 at 12:33 pm

#67 Ralph Mouth

“… I bet if I read the articles…”

Just as I thought. An opinion about something you failed to take the time to neither read nor watch.

The video via Zero Hedge was actually from Bloomberg.

Forming opinions before taking the time to become informed.

Why am I not surprised?…

#77 Snowboid on 11.14.13 at 1:05 pm

#48 Derek R on 11.14.13 at 7:29 am…

The only time we see any Canadian news on the local Phoenix stations is coverage of disasters.

It seems fitting that the Ford fiasco is on every local news channel now!

#78 Snowboid on 11.14.13 at 1:11 pm

#63 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 11.14.13 at 10:36 am…

Glad to hear things are going well, I see you actually have one listing now on MLS!

Maybe you are making millions with the BRA side of the business.

Keep on selling that sand!

#79 Nemesis on 11.14.13 at 1:17 pm

@Ralph/#69…

These salaciously frivolous LatinateTitillations have got to stop!… There are ladies present!

Speaking of which… I couldn’t help but notice a curious juxtaposition of GirlyNews in this morning’s QuantumFlow…

FirstUp: In response to media portrayals of her recent LadiesOnly “JT” event, “…as a one-night stand from which women would wake up feeling used…”, a HogTown PR Flack declares, “QuelleSurprise!” and vociferously feigns PoliticalNaivete. Seriously?

[G&M] – I organized Trudeau’s ‘Ladies Night’ – and got a lesson in our ugly politics

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/i-organized-trudeaus-ladies-night—and-got-a-lesson-in-our-ugly-politics/article15436042/

NextUp: BritishColumbia’s notorious Samji&Patel [not to be confused with similarly named, legitimate purveyors of TantalizinglyTasty SubContinental Garnishes]… whose stupendous fraud bilked the credulous, undetected, for almost a decade:

[VanSun] – Class action approved over alleged $83-million Ponzi scheme — but who would have to pay?

…”Investors who say they were bilked out of $83 million in an alleged Ponzi scheme operated by a former notary public have won the right to file a class-action lawsuit against her, but it doesn’t look like she has much left to pay back.

B.C. Supreme Court Justice Laura Gerow certified the suit Tuesday against Rashida Samji, who is accused of scamming investors by convincing them that their funds would be used as collateral by the Mark Anthony winery and other wine-producers in the Okanagan…

…“In light of the Samji defendants’ bankruptcy, these class members’ prospects for recovery of their losses rest largely on the claims against the Financial Institutions,” Gerow wrote.

Among others, the suit also names Arvind Patel, a financial advisor at Coast Capital and a Worldsource Financial Management mutual fund dealer who allegedly recommended the scheme to his clients, and three banks where Samji kept accounts: TD, RBC and Vancity.”…

http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2013/09/11/class-action-approved-over-alleged-83-million-ponzi-scheme-but-who-would-have-to-pay/

And now… for some thematically apropos RetroZen:

http://youtu.be/4eXZZUoo77U

[NoteToSaltyDogz: Was it good for you, too? MyBad, or as Geraldine Jones was wont to say, “TheDevilMadeMeDoIt!”…]

#80 Joe Calgary on 11.14.13 at 1:29 pm

Garth, no mention of a correction in the market in Calgary? Does Garth think there will be no correction in Calgary? Highest income earners in Canada and lowest unemployement might mean it really is different here for now.

#81 Smoking Man on 11.14.13 at 1:42 pm

DELETED

#82 Steven on 11.14.13 at 1:56 pm

Garth as an ex politician what do you make of this proposal?

http://www.theloop.ca/living/money/the-next-step/education-and-careers/article/-/a/2899564/OpEd-Why-every-Canadian-should-get-a-paycheque

#83 yellencriesuncle on 11.14.13 at 1:56 pm

Jan Yellen admits that unemployment is ‘10% and probably higher if you take the broader measures into account”. This is what many people have been saying but have been shouted down. Yellens candor is refreshing…….interest rates will not be adjusted….at all……gone.

Stock market is reacting predictably…gold too…..

#84 Smoking Man on 11.14.13 at 1:57 pm

Bank of Canada may not hike rates back to ‘normal’ even when economy recovers  

 http://business.financialpost.com/2013/11/14/bank-of-canada-may-not-hike-rates-back-to-normal-even-when-economy-recovers/ 

 Inflate the debt away people just like the oracle of oracles has told you many times.

#85 bill on 11.14.13 at 1:58 pm

#63 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 11.14.13 at 10:36 am

bill: Well, it is said, D.A. , that civilised man seeks out good and intelligent company, so that through learned discourse he may rise above the savage and closer to God.
D.A. : Yes, I heard that.
bill : Personally, however, I like to start the day with a total dickhead to remind me I’m best.
Thanks Man!
-with apologies to Sir Edmund Blackadder and Lord Percy.

#86 The Mox on 11.14.13 at 1:58 pm

Back in “dawn of 2013” I followed Garth’s advice about going with a 10 year mortgage. People thought I was crazy, but at the time I felt lucky and wise to have such good advice.

Hmmm……

#87 NoName on 11.14.13 at 1:59 pm

@ hc wt tylnl

DONT wory about reruns ford brothers are getting their own TV show .

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/straighttalk/archives/2013/11/20131114-120008.html

#88 Ralph Cramdown on 11.14.13 at 2:08 pm

#76 economictsunami

Hey, I read “Confessions of a Quantitative Easer.” Thank you for wasting my time. As I predicted here, it says little more than 1. Fed bought a lot of bonds 2. Economy still sucking.

What it does say beyond that is wrong. Either he has fallen into the fallacy of an incorrect comparison, or he’d like you to. He claims that the Fed’s actions were designed to help main street America, and have had little effect. Have they really? The economy isn’t where we’d all wish it to be, but the correct comparison is to where the economy would be had the Fed done nothing. Does the former bond trader with the easiest job in the world (buying agency MBS with money printed in the next room and with no expectation of, or concern for profit) make any predictions on that front? No. Can we ourselves gauge the effects of the Fed through observation? Yes, we can. Here’s a quote out of Bernanke’s speech from 2009 outlining the Fed’s tools:

“For example, we recently announced plans to purchase up to $100 billion in government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) debt and up to $500 billion in GSE mortgage-backed securities over the next few quarters. Notably, mortgage rates dropped significantly on the announcement of this program and have fallen further since it went into operation.”

Perhaps you remember what happened this year on speculation that the Fed was going to start tapering purchases? Interest rates went up on everything except overnight money. Yields went up on REITs, stocks, bonds, US fixed mortgages, Canadian fixed mortgages… So yes, the Fed has been suppressing interest rates. Do lower interest rates lead to increased economic activity? You betcha. Does reading Zerohedge and the WSJ editorial page rot your brain? You betcha.

#89 Bottoms_Up on 11.14.13 at 2:13 pm

2 blase on 11.13.13 at 8:54 pm
————————————
effectively you’re stuck with them at renewal. with mortgage only, it’s easier to switch banks. with mortgage being tied to HELOC, you can’t escape.

#90 Spiltbongwater on 11.14.13 at 2:16 pm

Another day, another Rob Ford apology. Man I have never seen someone apoligize as much as he has recently. The guy should have some backbone and stick with what he says, or hire a communications PR firm to help him maintain a little decorum when talking publicly.

#91 Bottoms_Up on 11.14.13 at 2:24 pm

#63 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 11.14.13 at 10:36 am
——————————————————–
DA some of us do miss your contrary and (sometimes) balanced opinion. Welcome back. But didn’t Garth ban you?

#92 russell olausen on 11.14.13 at 2:31 pm

I have been jailed and had blows rain down due to ego and heck, blame the crowd for the bloodlust part. However it allows me to see the Smoking Man point of view.” Runaway Train” star J Voight was the last thing I removed from Toronto when I was punted out of town back in 87. Take a gander, maybe Rob Ford did and then you will know what he knows. From wonderful , loving Edmonton. Not to worried about real estate here.

#93 Ralph Cramdown on 11.14.13 at 2:44 pm

The Fords is a Canadian reality television program featuring the domestic life of municipal politician Rob Ford and his family. The series premiered on Sun News on March 5, 2014.

In addition to mayor Rob, the show features his wife and enabler Renata, their children Stephanie and Douglas, and brother Doug. Rob has a sister, Kathy, who refused to participate in the show, and publicly criticized her brothers for their antics on the show. In most family photos shown on the show, she is either absent or blurred. The series also followed the family as they dealt with major events such as Rob’s battle with garbage workers, and the aftermath of a football accident that nearly killed Douglas.

Concurrent with the success of the series, Doug Ford launched a brief career as a singer, while Stephanie Ford hosted The Stephanie Ford Show. The family also parodied their TV series during a cameo appearance in The Republic of Doyle.

Rob’s friend Alessandro Lisi makes regular appearances on the show; Rob took him in during the second season after his dry cleaning business was torched by the Mob. While a constant presence in front of the camera, few plots revolved around Lisi, but he had a few lines.

Another person making recurring appearances on the show is Chris Fickel, Rob’s executive assistant and nanny. He is often seen trying to get a drunk Rob out of public while Rob berates and belittles him, telling him to “get a real job.”

Rob confirmed in an interview on CBC Radio 2 in May 2014 that he was “drunk during the entire filming of The Fords” and will not watch the episodes for this reason.

Profanity was censored during W Channel broadcasts of the series in the United States. In an interview Rob himself stated that while he was happy that the Canadian broadcasts were uncensored, he preferred the censored version because the cursing was more noticeable due to the bleeps. Some episodes were also aired uncensored to Australian audiences when shown on Network Ten.

#94 Alberta you suck! Joe, you too! on 11.14.13 at 2:48 pm

Our beloved Joe in Ca,Ca (Calgary Canada) dixit:

Highest income earners in Canada and lowest unemployement might mean it really is different here for now.

Reading the above you wonder how can people be so full of ..it?!

UPDATE 1-Canada Sept housing prices flat, 29-month growth streak ends
59 minutes ago by Thomson Reuters
* Flat prices ends streak that began in March 2011

OTTAWA, Nov 14 (Reuters) – The prices of new houses in Canada were unchanged in September from August, breaking a 29-month streak of consecutive increases, Statistics Canada said on Thursday.

Analysts had expected a 0.1 percent advance. The last time prices were flat was in March 2011.

The western energy-rich province of Alberta was largely responsible for the lack of overall growth, Statscan said. Prices rose 0.5 percent in Calgary but fell by 0.4 percent in Edmonton.

New housing prices grew 1.6 percent from September 2012, the smallest year-on-year increase since the 0.9 percent recorded in February 2010.

The Canadian government, which imposed tighter mortgage rules in July, and the Bank of Canada have long expressed concerns the housing market might overheat.

Ottawa will clamp down again on the housing market if necessary to prevent a bubble forming, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Tuesday. ID:nO8N0HR00J]

The new housing price index excludes condominiums, which the government says are a particular cause for concern. Of the 21 metropolitan areas surveyed in September, prices rose in six, fell in four and were unchanged in 11.

#95 frank le skank on 11.14.13 at 2:54 pm

#93 Alberta you suck! Joe, you too! on 11.14.13 at 2:48 pm

Apparently its different in Alberta and Richmond Hill.

#96 fancy_pants on 11.14.13 at 3:03 pm

#86 The Mox on 11.14.13 at 1:58 pm

too bad you didn’t listen to some of us here who said all along that rates (BofC overnight rate) are going nowhere in a hurry. History has proven that 9 times out of 10 you save money carrying your mortgage at variable rate vs. fixed rates over the life of your mortgage. don’t ask for a link, do some searching.

#97 Rex Rock on 11.14.13 at 3:07 pm

Garth is right,rates won”t go up for years.Canada will do exactly what Japan is doing for the last 20 years,so there you go.All this talk about taper is so funny.We all know they won’t or the market crashes,maybe after the next election.They will probably raise bond purchases to over 100 to 125 billion a month.Mark my words and you’ll see.They went from $45 to $85 billion didn’t they.Ride this casino stock market higher and feel the rush baby.

#98 Ralph Cramdown on 11.14.13 at 3:20 pm

Text of prepared remarks by Kathleen Wynne, Premier of Ontario
EMBARGOED UNTIL 2:30PM EST

“My fellow Torontonians, our long municipal nightmare is over….

#99 GG on 11.14.13 at 3:23 pm

Like we care what those suckers pay for houses. Let them be special

#95 frank le skank on 11.14.13 at 2:54 pm
#93 Alberta you suck! Joe, you too! on 11.14.13 at 2:48 pm

Apparently its different in Alberta and Richmond Hill.

#100 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.14.13 at 3:27 pm

#91 Bottoms_Up on 11.14.13 at 2:24 pm
#63 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 11.14.13 at 10:36 am
——————————————————–
DA some of us do miss your contrary and (sometimes) balanced opinion. Welcome back. But didn’t Garth ban you?

That he did. Just stopped by to offer some, onetime, last advice. Not going to defend or argue it. Do with it as you please.

Life is good and things ARE getting better. Sure there are some bumps in the road ahead. We are evolving. “Collaboration” is the new word gaining favour and recognition over “competition”.

The current system is unsustainable but it’s all we’ve got for now and will not likely change in your lifetime. Change it will though… it’s inevitable. For now… get used to it, live with it, live each day like you’d like tomorrow to be, try make it a better place for future generations. Give more than you take and you’ll be surprised how much will come to you.

Good bye. Good luck.

#101 Penny Henny on 11.14.13 at 3:38 pm

Rob Ford is like an out of work teacher.

No class.

#102 Form Man on 11.14.13 at 3:39 pm

#100 DA

actually my comment at #75 was incorrect. it is 5 years since the prices in Kelowna peaked, not 4………….

#103 coastal on 11.14.13 at 3:42 pm

Victoria prices continue to languish in spite of all the big micro-condo sales BS being sprayed around by the local media. A place I know of in one of the toniest parts of town, and reasonably priced to the median price in nice shape, has not had one single bidder in over two months on the market. You know the price has to come down bigtime when a low baller wouldn’t even step in. Oh right, low ballers aren’t allowed in Victoria, it’s not how we do business in the garden city, besides, it would hurt their “feelings”.

#104 Nemesis on 11.14.13 at 3:43 pm

BonusZen….

#WhoCoodaNode!

“Individual households are heterogeneous in many respects. It is important to measure and analyze this heterogeneity because it can have important implications for aggregate figures.” – Peter Praet, a member of the executive board of the European Central Bank

[BloomBergBizWeek] – Economists Discover the Poor Behave Differently From the Rich

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-11-07/economists-discover-the-poor-behave-differently-from-the-rich#r=most%20popular

#LadiesChoice

[AlArabiya] – Turkey lifts ban on trousers for women MPs in parliament

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/life-style/art-and-culture/2013/11/14/Turkey-lifts-ban-on-trousers-for-women-MPs-in-parliament.html

#GutturalUtterings #ThreadNeedle’sOldLady

[UK Guardian] – Steve Bell on the Bank of England’s latest economic forecasts – cartoon

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cartoon/2013/nov/14/steve-bell-bank-england-carney

#105 Ralph Cramdown on 11.14.13 at 3:45 pm

“As premier, I have today granted a veto over the future of Toronto to the Honourable Member for Pikangikum.”

#106 TnT on 11.14.13 at 3:50 pm

#63 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate

Hey DA

I read a lot of your posts from the past…

It is amazing to see the story unfold from 2008 to present on this blog and how you and others played the game right thus far…

You have not missed much… you can’t tell which year were in by reading the posters comments… it’s is exactly the same theme except houses cost more…

Can you give us an update on the RE world from your perspective?

How’s the foreign investment factor been lately?

See any trends in the last few months?

Thanks

#107 subprime on 11.14.13 at 4:05 pm

The Fed’s priority is to protect and support the Big Banks. Who do you think owns the Fed…big banks and the elites. The Fed is a private company but you and I can’t buy stocks. wake up. The problem…Banks have been greedy and reckless with your money, the lifeblood of the system and many are bankrupt on paper. After 2008 people got scared and stashed their savings back into GIC’s. They need your money back into equities to save their game, steal your money and protect banks from bankrupcy. Fed pumps 85B per month into the banks who buy equities with it and entice you to buy into the market bubble as values escalate. Is any of it real? Does the Dow represent the real economy? Greed turns to fear then they collapse the market and you lose. Banks are relieved of the liability of your savings which you gambled and lost. Any banks who can’t find a seat in this game of musical chairs are privatized and bailed out by the taxpayer who clocks into work the next day to provide the banks with more real money from his labour.

#108 espressobob on 11.14.13 at 4:30 pm

The roasting continues, Rob Ford, do us a favour!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ki-NjZjOWo

#109 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.14.13 at 4:32 pm

#87 NoName on 11.14.13 at 1:59 pm
@ hc wt tylnl
DONT wory about reruns ford brothers are getting their own TV show .
http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/straighttalk/archives/2013/11/20131114-120008.html

……………………………………………………………………….

Much more entertaining than The Kardashians and the Osbourne’s. Well not quite as entertaining as Ozzy. At least Ozzy admitted his libations, and he swears like a trouper too! Will have to tune into that one if it comes to fruition.

#110 Alistair McLaughlin on 11.14.13 at 4:38 pm

@Smoking Man, you know what else the wealthy have in common? They don’t waste their time posting the same old nonsense in the comments section of someone else’s blog every day, day after day, year after year. I’ve never seen a wealthy person do that. Some have their own blogs. None take up residence on someone else’s. Either you’re a very, very unique wealthy person, or you’re not at all wealthy, but just want us to think you are.

#111 Valley Renter Chick on 11.14.13 at 4:45 pm

I’m looking at a couple of REIT ETFs such as NLY MITT which pay huge dividends. Can anyone tell me why someone would not purchase these before the ex-dividend date and sell immediately after receiving their dividend payment…in the case of NLY a nearly 15% dividend. I must be missing something here because it just seems too easy.

#112 Smoking Man on 11.14.13 at 5:19 pm

Brewing news.

Wynn says see will do an intervention and remove the mayor if city council tells her that they can’t do business at city Hall.

Mean while Ford is speaking and all the counselors turn there back to Ford.

Ha, can we also remove council.

This is good, once she does it they are doomed.

Mire dudes in province with pick up trucks than man purses.

Bring it on dragon power plant lady.

#113 Mocha on 11.14.13 at 5:25 pm

The sanity of the American RE market when compared to ours : when bidding wars become more common, Americans back off.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-14/bid-wars-wane-in-u-s-housing-markets-on-supply-rise-mortgages.html

#114 TnT on 11.14.13 at 5:44 pm

#110 Alistair McLaughlin

Smoking Man is a stain on this blog and that’s how he likes it…

I have looked up the past posts since day 1 on this blog (available on the side) and SM message has been consistent from the beginning….

“Bet on the herd and not the numbers…”

SM as much as you annoy me with your provocative jabs I spent many months I just bypassing your posts and now it’s like CrAcK… I tried it once now I’m hooked you turd..

Although the subject is serious just don’t take this blog seriously…

Have fun, poke at the number crunching chicken little’s every now and then and laugh at the replies….

Cheers!

#115 DM in C on 11.14.13 at 5:47 pm

#100 – he just can’t help himself:

“That he did. Just stopped by to offer some, onetime, last advice. Not going to defend or argue it. Do with it as you please. ”

You’ve had so many one time, last times your head must still be spinning.

No one asks or looks to you for cliche-ridden, trite advice, so you have to keep coming back, unsolicited, to a blog where you are banned. Pathetic. Sad.

#116 Smoking Man on 11.14.13 at 5:59 pm

#110 Alistair McLaughlin on 11.14.13 at 4:38 pm

It started off slow just like smoking and drinking, my blogging, I have an addictive personally, and like to debate, usually take the opposite position of the majority.

Only people that agree with me come to my blog.

That’s no fun at all.

Some people collect stamps.

As far as my wealth, wouldn’t you like to know, nice try.

I am unique by a long shot…..

#117 jess on 11.14.13 at 6:03 pm

citizen “vultures”
400k/14.7m = 3-4cents on the dollar?

Rolling Jubilee is a project that buys debt for pennies on the dollar, but instead of collecting it from people who are in default, we abolish it: rollingjubilee.org

http://www.salon.com/2013/08/12/your_mortgage_documents_are_fake/

some towns in France that refused to repay loans to Dexia, a bank that had been bailed out with public money.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/12/us-france-dexia-mayors-idUSBRE89B0SM20121012
============
eminent domain

…”$400,000 on his mortgage. According to a recent assessment, his house is only worth about $130,000. LeGrande is current on his payments, but in 22 years he will have to make a single lump-sum payment of $194,000…a city where more than 40 percent of all mortgages are underwater, according to Zillow
http://www.yesmagazine.org/commonomics/can-eminent-domain-be-used-to-avert-a-foreclosure-mess
=============
…” newly unsealed lawsuit, which banks settled in 2012 for $95 million, actually offers a different reason, providing a key answer to one of the persistent riddles of the financial crisis and its aftermath. The lawsuit states that banks resorted to fake documents because they could not legally establish true ownership of the loans when trying to foreclose…”

#118 4 AM Sunrise on 11.14.13 at 6:21 pm

#111 Valley Renter Chick

On the ex-dividend date, the price of a stock is adjusted down to reflect the payout i. e. if the payout is 7 cents, the stock will definitely open 7 cents lower than the last day’s closing price. AND you still have to be in the stock on the record date. Whether it rebound to a breakeven price after that is your guess.

It is possible – I remember I stayed in a stock for one week and still received a dividend because I happened to catch the record date, but that was just lucky.

#119 4 AM Sunrise on 11.14.13 at 6:27 pm

My alma mater wants to put people in debt and then teach alumni that It’s a Good Thing:

http://www.alumni.ubc.ca/2013/events/the-next-step/the-next-step-making-debt-work-for-you-vancouver

#120 jess on 11.14.13 at 6:29 pm

When you open a Manulife One account, we could lend you up to 80%* of the appraised value of your home

what if in the future the value of your more goes down?

#121 aspats on 11.14.13 at 6:33 pm

this should be interesting, airs November 21st:

http://www.cbc.ca/doczone/episodes/the-condo-game

#122 SofaKing on 11.14.13 at 6:34 pm

HFS Smokingman, your #11 post is so damn true. I don’t agree with how the Fords of the world have/are changing the goal posts but nevertheless it has become exactly that. Now the slaves have to grow some and fight to push back or else we’ll just become another DRNK.

#123 4 AM Sunrise on 11.14.13 at 6:39 pm

I just noticed that the debt seminar is sponsored by the Alumni UBC MasterCard. GREAT.

#124 Herb on 11.14.13 at 6:51 pm

Smoking Man,

ask the mortified woman who stood next to Ford during his last non-apology if she is proud of your hero.

#125 The Mox on 11.14.13 at 7:02 pm

#96 fancy_pants

I may have listened to you if you had a fancy blog and website like this one!

#126 Alpha Bravo on 11.14.13 at 7:19 pm

#90 Spiltbongwater on 11.14.13 at 2:16 pm

Another day, another Rob Ford apology. Man I have never seen someone apoligize as much as he has recently. The guy should have some backbone and stick with what he says, or hire a communications PR firm to help him maintain a little decorum when talking publicly.

____________

He’s sorry only cause he got caught.

#127 live within your means on 11.14.13 at 7:26 pm

#93 Ralph Cramdown on 11.14.13 at 2:44 pm

Hilarious.

#128 Smoking Man on 11.14.13 at 7:27 pm

#124 Herb on 11.14.13 at 6:51 pm
Smoking Man,

ask the mortified woman who stood next to Ford during his last non-apology if she is proud of your hero.
……………………………………………..

Yes that woman born in a convent, raised by nuns. The shock and horror of it all. Acting.

I dislodged my gal stones, went from a historical laughter to bent over pain. Karma a bitch I guess.

Herb you ever see 7 year old rep hockey game, you ever listen what comes out of the mouths of those innocents.

Please this is a typical Herd Mobbing.

The left wants the keys to the lucrative single source contracts, simple as that. They want to be just like there buddies at queens park. Raid the till.

Grow up. O ya you are.

#129 Smoking Man on 11.14.13 at 7:30 pm

O herb you where talking about the wife, did you see what she said to reporters in parking lot.

I thought you meant the reporter when he used the P word

#130 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 11.14.13 at 7:52 pm

@#114 TnT
Hell has frozen over…… TnT likes Smoking Man

#131 TnT on 11.14.13 at 8:29 pm

#130 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 11.14.13 at 7:52 pm

@#114 TnT
Hell has frozen over…… TnT likes Smoking Man

***

Hold on now… I read his posts… it’s addictive comic relief for me…

#132 TnT on 11.14.13 at 8:57 pm

#121 aspats

this should be interesting, airs November 21st:

http://www.cbc.ca/doczone/episodes/the-condo-game

************

I usually like stuff from The Doc Zone but I see Adam Vaughn in the trailer….

#133 D.D. Corkum on 11.14.13 at 9:07 pm

#47

Rather than insuring the mortgage at the rates they charge, it makes more sense to shop for a competitive term life insurance plan elsewhere.

Also, you don’t necessarily require enough insurance to pay off the mortgage. Perhaps the family can sell the home and down-size once you are removed from the equation.

#134 Observer on 11.14.13 at 9:27 pm

The Fed’s policies fail to make sense even in purely Keynesian terms. Keynes taught that the key to pulling an economy out of recession is to increase demand. Repressing interest rates is supposed to stimulate borrowing and thus stimulate demand. But the Fed’s repression of interest rates has penalized savers. The collapse of demand from savers has in turn more than offset any new demand from borrowers lured by the low interest rates.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2013/11/14/what-yellen-vote-will-tell-us-about-today-republican-party/?intcmp=latestnews

Just as I suspected….the punishment of savers is taking their demand out of the economy and might be causing more problems?

#135 TurnerNation on 11.14.13 at 9:53 pm

god, dam. The pusher man. Fjord Nation.

#136 Prairieboy43 on 11.14.13 at 10:33 pm

Toronto and Calgary should trade mayors, players. Ford , Kessel for Nenshi, Giordano.

#137 Cici on 11.14.13 at 11:29 pm

NIMBY…the Great Canadian Chalk Circle way :-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gj6vIT-wXNI

#138 Bottoms_Up on 11.14.13 at 11:30 pm

#111 Valley Renter Chick on 11.14.13 at 4:45 pm
—————————————————
remember if something seems too good to be true it most certainly is.