Scrubbed

scrubbed 1

No wonder you’re confused.

One week this pathetic blog brings you the story of a sexed-up row house across from a Toronto orgy club selling for big bucks in a frenzied bidding war, and the next there’s the tale of some poor rich people in BC being raped by the market. Every month real estate boards pump out media releases touting a hot market, and yet people selling condos in downtown Toronto, central Calgary or the Lower Mainland can’t find buyers.

Realtors are supposed to lie. But numbers aren’t. Determining if low rates and hormones can keep this market alive, or if high prices and record debt have it hooped, ain’t easy. Pay too much when house values are already at record levels, and your finances might never recover. But, refuse to buy and maybe get you’ll be priced out forever.

Wasn’t buying a house supposed to be fun? Where did all this damn stress come from?

Well, it’s getting worse. This past weekend one more big real estate board signed on to a system designed to obfuscate trending prices by throwing data into a washing machine, and then a blender, coming up with the MLS HPI (Home Price Index), which we fondly refer to as the Frankenumber.

This realtor creation is now shoved at consumers in Calgary, Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal, the Fraser Valley and Victoria, as well as by CREA. In some of those places it’s already difficult for buyers or sellers to get average or median house prices for a recent month, so they never have a good idea of how the market is twisting or turning, nor of how to react.

First, what is the Frankenumber?

In essence, it’s a mash – a hybrid of recent sales data layered over hedonic prices which tracks levels at a specific moment relative to a base period, for a specific kind of property. So, instead of telling you the average (or median) price of houses which sold in an area, it gives you a trending number for various kinds of houses, modified for their characteristics. That can include bedrooms, view, lot size, parking, age, heating, or distance to the bus and Starbucks. And because it’s all made relative to an historic base, Frankenumber changes don’t actually correspond with last month’s price fluctuations.

Clear now? No?

Okay, here’s a key part the methodology, from the 24-page document CREA created to make it all crystal:

“Transactional Data collected and used in the MLS® HPI must first be reformatted, analysed, sorted, and in some cases, amended; this process is commonly referred to as “scrubbing”.

“Transactional data are reformatted to include additional fields necessary to support the MLS® HPI. These new fields include calculated, estimated or inferred attributes from other available information. For example, Floor Area Above Main and Floor Area Main are created in the database, and are more useful than a unique Global Living Area field. Detailed living areas by floor are aggregated and compared to the Global Living Area in MLS® HPI regressions.

“For markets where Transactional Data includes detailed Living Area information, it is prioritized over the single Global Living Area in modeling tests. In keeping with best practices, results are filtered to include records with values above 2.5% and below 97.5% of cumulative Normal  distributions; other results are treated as outliers and automatically removed. To mitigate volatility, a moving five-year period is used, since the use of a shorter sample horizon may result in an insufficient number of sales over the period and cause index inaccuracies.

Cook’s Distance is used to estimate the influence of an observation when doing least squares regressions, and helps detect outliers or identify a sub-area where it would be recommended to have more data points… To ensure the full potential to extract knowledge from outliers, observations with a high measurement of Cook’s Distance are manually reviewed and validated before being removed.

See what I mean? Frankenumbers come from actual sales data which is scrubbed – “reformatted, analysed, sorted, and in some cases, amended” – with high and low sales deliberately removed to blend prices, then expressed over a five-year base, and sometimes manually diddled.

Then it’s reported this way, as in Vancouver: “The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver is currently $601,900. This represents a decline of 0.7 per cent compared to this time last year and an increase of 2.3 per cent compared to January 2013.”

Sounds benign, right? It also suggests the market is trending higher, but things are cheaper than they used to be. Hey, it’s a good time to buy!

In fact, here is the HPI chart for the last five years – see how stable, serene and reassuring a market can look when all the numbers are scrubbed?

HPI

And here is a chart of the unscrubbed, down-&-dirty, raw numbers showing average prices for singles, attached and condos. One glance here tells a different story: the market has exploded to a dangerous, unsustainable level with prices currently at or near their historic peak, and showing advanced volatility. Is this a time you really want to shell out a million bucks for a glorified garage in East Van?

AVG

Canadians have the bulk of their net worth in their houses, with home ownership at an unprecedented level. Most of them think this ride will continue without end, and why not? With each day that passes the real estate cartel finds new ways to lure and ensnare. The Frankenumber may be its greatest achievement.

157 comments ↓

#1 AisA on 11.03.13 at 5:57 pm

You can’t have the deepest real estate crash in the history of real estate without an awfully long climb first.

:-)

#2 Forzudo on 11.03.13 at 5:59 pm

Just enough obscurity to keep everybody in business.

#3 Larry Laffer on 11.03.13 at 6:00 pm

Isn’t the calculation of the official inflation rate subject to the same number mish-mash (i.e. excluding food, housing and gas prices for example)?

#4 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.03.13 at 6:04 pm

But, the realtors just apologized for drinking a bit too much sometimes, so it’s all ok.

#5 Ripped on 11.03.13 at 6:19 pm

BANG !!

I woke up and it’s winter in Alberta.

#6 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 11.03.13 at 6:19 pm

Garth in the final graph are “apartments”(green line) and “Condos”(dotted line) considered the same thing?
I cant see the dotted condo line…….

#7 Ripped on 11.03.13 at 6:20 pm

BANG !!

I woke up and it’s winter in Alberta.

God I hate this country !!

#8 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.03.13 at 6:22 pm

October numbers are in.

Greater Victoria upper end SFH prices remained at September’s level (see chart) at 10.7% below peak. Lower end SFH prices experienced a slight increase, but are still 13.3% below peak values (I will post this chart soon).

. . SFH Percentage Price Decline From Peak (3-month median) .
. . . . . . . . (Oak Bay, Saanich East and North Saanich) . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 3.5%. . .X. X. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 4.0%. . . . . . . .X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 4.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5.0%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 6.0%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 6.5%. .X. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 7.0%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .X. . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 7.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 8.0% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 8.5% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 9.0% . . . . . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 9.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X. X . . . . . . .
– 10.0%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 10.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X .X. . . .
– 11.0%. . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . .X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 11.5%. . . . . . . . . . .X . . . . . . .X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
—————————————————————————————–
. . . . . . . M. J. J. A. S. O. N. D. J. F. M. A. M. J. J. A. S .O. . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . .2012. . . . ./. . . . . . . . 2013. . . . . . . . . . . .

2006, 2007 and 2009 were the last 3 years that Victoria’s housing market experienced an overall price increase. October SFH sales in those years were much stronger than the total SFH sales for October 2013. Let’s compare.

October 2013’s SFH sales total was 251 which was 32% less than Oct. 2009’s total (367), 27% less than Oct. 2007’s total (344) and 20% less than Oct. 2006’s total (312). October’s SFH sales total was in the same range as Oct. 2011 (238) and Oct. 2010 (220), however, starting in 2013, sales totals have included private sales, which has boosted 2013 sales totals.

Girls and guys, renting for now will allow you to save (make) a lot of money in the long run.

Canada’s housing bubble is much bigger than the 2006 US housing bubble. There has never been a bubble housing market that has gone through a soft landing. All housing bubbles burst and the result is always a deep, multi-year correction or crash. There have been 50 examples in the world (over the past 40 years) where entire countries experienced housing bubbles like Canada’s. In all cases, the end result was a deep correction or crash.

Imagine buying this Phoenix, AZ house near the peak of the 2006 US housing bubble. At that time (May 2006) you would have paid $301 K. By February 2012, it’s value had dropped down to $87 . You would have lost $214 K, or 71%, on your investment.

However, if you had chosen to heed Robert Shiller’s housing bubble warnings in 2006, you would have made the decision to buy after the crash. Your total savings would have been about 2.5 x $214 K = $535 K, since you normally end up paying around 2.5 times the purchase price of a house by the time the mortgage is paid off.

SFH prices are already down 10-15% in Victoria, but prices will fall much more than that. There is no reason to rush out and buy a house right now. If you look at the price chart of the Phoenix house, you will notice that once prices reached the bottom, there was a window of about 2.5 – 3 years to buy at prices very close to the bottom. The same will happen in Victoria and the rest of Canada.

Renting for now (instead of buying) will prevent you from experiencing financial distress in the future. Millions of American families would agree.

Until next time – Cheers!

#9 PrairieMan on 11.03.13 at 6:24 pm

It’s 10 C here in the Prairies! Albertans please come visit for nice weather!

#10 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 11.03.13 at 6:26 pm

Just curious about the photo.
The dog appears to be bathing in milk….Was it sprayed by a Realtor?

#11 not 1st on 11.03.13 at 6:27 pm

This is a predication that you can take to the bank. There are more bubbles around the world than little ol Canada to worry about and many are teetering. Here are some;

1. Oil
2. Some commodities
3. Chinese RE
4. NASDAQ
5. DOW

Oil and some commodities can no longer justify their price levels. China is in the line of fire for some event and ot probably happens in its RE market which is really a proxy for shadow lending and bad loans. The Nasdaq is in 1999 territory again with investors again shelling out cash to businesses who have no revenues or assets. Remember Pets.com? And lastly, the DOW is wildly overvalued in relation to the overall economy and company profits, its just stimulus keeping it up now. Even if the U.S. economy does restart, it will be at a 2.5-3.0% GDP which still doesn’t justify a 15,000 level on the DOW.

Probably some of these will be the Black Swan triggers that put the nail in the Canadian RE story.

#12 X on 11.03.13 at 6:40 pm

I still don’t why the gov’t doesn’t act on these numbers at all. Everyone knows they are BS. Even the people pumping them out.

We are warned that we have too much debt, most of it being from leveraged RE. And we are warned that we haven’t saved enough to fund our retirements.

We already have low rates to boost the economy, but we don’t need to be misled by those who are supposed to be RE experts for their own financial gain.

But to be herded like sheep into buying RE, with false numbers and misleading data, the gov’t really should step in and at least allow buyers to be properly informed of their financial actions in todays RE market.

I don’t want a RE crash or anything, just the ability to actually see how the market really is doing and to make an informed decision when I make my next RE transaction.

Also glad that the equities that I invest in do not have Frankenumbers in their prospectus’ instead of actual profits every quarter. LOL. I couldn’t imagine another investment trying something like this.

#13 Grantmi on 11.03.13 at 6:41 pm

What’s wrong with you people in Toronto??

Are you all idiots??

http://bit.ly/170tZyr

#14 Ralph Cramdown on 11.03.13 at 6:47 pm

I actually like the concept of an index that attempts to measure price change for comparable properties over time. Unfortunately, the index can only be as good as the data that individual selling agents populate MLS with, and most of us have seen gross misrepresentaions there. Add on top of that bad data individual board statisticians; I imagine their knowledge and training varies, but… And the final issue is that every reporter, aggregator or ‘statistician’ has a bias running to higher prices, so all the skew is one way.

And of course my suspicion is that boards will stress average prices in frothy and rising markets “prices going up!” and switch to HPI in a bust “prices not going down, much…”

But to take the example of a neighbourhood of smaller houses on larger lots that are redeveloped and resold over a decade: The average price in that area will skyrocket, even if the prices of the lot value houses and of the redeveloped houses goes nowhere.

#15 coastal on 11.03.13 at 6:49 pm

Absolutely disgusting how this unregulated industry gets more media traction from the equivalent of used car salesmen. I’m even more shocked how the story last week on Victoria foreclosures of 15-20% of monthly sales got buried even by the Mensa crew at the Victoria home owner blog. “3% max!” the resident know-it-alls cried, versus the word of Ron Neal, one of the most respected agents in Victoria. Bury the truth to keep milking the masses when its in your best interest. This is one conspiracy you can take to the bank, while they suck your wallet dry.

#16 S. Florida on 11.03.13 at 6:52 pm

There is a lesson for all you Canucks in Canada.. this story has played itself out before!

Foolish mistakes will ruin you – Bankruptcy will take care of the rest:

http://goo.gl/u9Ebef

#17 Nemesis on 11.03.13 at 6:58 pm

There’s no denying it’s a MonsterMash…

http://youtu.be/vNuVifA7DSU

But ya know, AuldPol… for the briefest of instants, I could have sworn that you said, “Frankenmember”.

http://youtu.be/U3OhhRfl18w

MyBad.

#18 Adam on 11.03.13 at 7:03 pm

Not that I don’t buy it, but what you posted is really unfair, Garth. Line up the Y-axes appropriately so we can see a direct comparison.

#19 Obvious Truth on 11.03.13 at 7:06 pm

Went to the grocery store a few minutes ago and was looking at bread when an gentleman who looked about sixty asked me if I was good at math. I said sure.

What’s 49 cents times 4 he said as he painted to the large buns. Just under two bucks I offered. 1.96 to be exact.

He started to walk away and I saw him counting change. Had a couple of loonies and went over to him. I offered the coins and he said no thanks. Put it in his hand and he thanked me.

Housing has certainly contributed to this in our country.

Wonder how many are a few cheques from this because of the home they bought. This will be the real cost.

#20 I'm stupid on 11.03.13 at 7:19 pm

Garth in your opinion at what point do people hit the debt wall? How much further can debt levels go before it all comes crumbiling down? With Realestate being a cult now in Canada, I think the tipping point will be when a significant number of “homeowners” are forced to sell because they can no longer borrow from John to pay Paul.

#21 recharts on 11.03.13 at 7:23 pm

So this is what we get after the news that TREB and CREA fudge the numbers went mainstream?

Let’s wait for Monday to see the Condo numbers, I am really curious to see how far this can go.

However there is contradictory reports, Canadian Watchdog posted here a couple of graphs showing that the debt increase is decelerating and the mortgage applications are also decreasing in numbers. My question is, who the heck is buying and with what money?

My guess is that the cretins who lead this country look at Vancouver and they say, “well, if Vancouver is not crashing prices can go higher in places like Toronto and Calgary” and they will let this go up as much as it can betting their money on the fact that the other sectors of the economy will reignite their engines.

I still hope that the Condo time bomb will explode before this goes too far.
Ottawa and Montreal are getting to that point and I have reasons to believe that Toronto will follow.

They can f..k those numbers as much as they can, the people are not buying condos and new homes anymore. Period.

#22 Alberta Ed on 11.03.13 at 7:23 pm

The ongoing failure by federal and provincial governments to regulate the RE industry, as banks and insurance companies are controlled, makes you wonder whose side the politicians are on. For that matter, why do politicians permit marketing control boards to screw Canadians on prices for dairy products?

#23 TurnerNation on 11.03.13 at 7:32 pm

Traders know markets drive with technicals in the short term, and fundamentals longer.

We need a good whack of news. I’m thinking a CMHC cap announced, of $500,000?
Whoop there it is.

#24 jan on 11.03.13 at 7:43 pm

The CREA guy attacked you very aggressively when interviewed on BNN channel.
I don’t understand, why did you say ;funny stuff; instead of actually saying what you said here today with actual graphs and all.
He was dirty when he was criticizing you that day.
WHY IS THE GOVERNMENT SO PASSIVE ON THIS CRIMINAL ENTERPRISE???????

#25 AK on 11.03.13 at 7:48 pm

#11 not 1st on 11.03.13 at 6:27 pm
“The Nasdaq is in 1999 territory again with investors again shelling out cash to businesses who have no revenues or assets. Remember Pets.com? ”
====================================
Hardly. Stop exaggerating.

#26 AisA on 11.03.13 at 7:54 pm

People get what they ask for from the market, all markets. You ask to live a fantasy, reality will come knocking asking you to pay the tab. C’est la vie.

#27 Freedom First on 11.03.13 at 7:55 pm

Speaking of numbers. Warren Buffett’s BH is sitting on 40 Billion $cash right now, double his usual cash holding. Said that just because you have that much cash on hand, doesn’t mean that you have to spend it, and they are sleeping well over at BH.

I think that some sales in the Stock Market are coming. For me, Warren holding excess cash/dry powder is something to pay attention to, especially when the Stock Market keeps hitting record highs.

Lastly, some disturbing comments on Garth’s blog lately, as in some posters mocking other posters about their comments relating to always being: “diversified, balanced, re-balancing, and liquid”, as if it some sick kind of “Mantra”, as they call it. The RE pumpers are really losing it. This “mantra” makes them real angry solely because it is the truth about how to hold ones assets in a sanely managed portfolio. No exception.

#28 recharts on 11.03.13 at 8:03 pm

#24 jan on 11.03.13 at 7:43 pm
The CREA guy attacked you very aggressively when interviewed on BNN channel.
I don’t understand, why did you say ;funny stuff; instead of actually saying what you said here today with actual graphs and all.
He was dirty when he was criticizing you that day.
WHY IS THE GOVERNMENT SO PASSIVE ON THIS CRIMINAL ENTERPRISE???????

————–

that is because the government is trapped in this shit via CMHC. It is in their best interest that the market should not crash.
your only hope is the institutional investors who will get screwed by using CREA’s numbers and who will end up suing CREA or any RE boards. They can end up questioning the numbers and requiring the data to be presented.

#29 not 1st on 11.03.13 at 8:08 pm

#25 AK on 11.03.13 at 7:48 pm

Hardly. Stop exaggerating.
_______________

Guess you weren’t around in 1999.

http://www.businessinsider.com/evidence-that-tech-sector-is-in-a-bubble-2013-11

#30 drydock on 11.03.13 at 8:09 pm

Price discovery has been destroyed,this is racketeering.

#31 Fed-up on 11.03.13 at 8:16 pm

@#7 Ripped on 11.03.13 at 6:20 pm
BANG !!

I woke up and it’s winter in Alberta.

God I hate this country !!
————————————————————————————–
In Alberta eh?
Must have been a short nap :p

#32 Smoking Hot on 11.03.13 at 8:25 pm

Garth your hitting more financial letters

http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=orkbnrcab&v=001lAJKb32DnbhqrgJg4cz9-sMmm5e-JzSWW5a9znx8PZpFme2vzzkmAahtcnrlggtWlljX2EDU_vuUjvmIFRaddhBHK_7uIVqTcRg9-WpdsL4%3D

#33 amazon girl on 11.03.13 at 8:33 pm

Garth,
Congrats on BNN interview,job well done..
By the way love the tie and suit you look good….

#34 AK on 11.03.13 at 8:35 pm

#29 not 1st on 11.03.13 at 8:08 pm
_______________

“Guess you weren’t around in 1999.”
====================================

I was around in 1999. The Nasdaq was @ 5,000 in 1999.

As far as Twitter goes, only idiots will be buying into.

#35 Smoking Man on 11.03.13 at 8:37 pm

The perfect storm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/jobs/canada-unemployment-hits-five-year-low/article15234314/

Wow amazing jobs report, with no growth in wages.

Translation Rates to stay low, lots of people working.

SFH to keep pushing hire in the GTA.

On the Ford File, listing to callers on talk radio, majority support tubby. I love it.

And many where asking why the MSM is not shoving cameras up queens park re libs.

A few strategic posts on MSM comment sections.

I have alot of power.

#36 Obvious Truth on 11.03.13 at 8:42 pm

Still some stock bulls out there. Looks like s and p wants 1800. All time Nasdaq high within sight. Dow buy signal confirmation talk. Let’s watch the show. The mono stocks should get their grove back. Flows are hot.

I’ll be a seller for the next few months into all this strength. Of course not all of it. Just want lots of solid cash. Feels crappy when you don’t have cash to hedge. Don’t want to help Goldman et al too much. Let them take the lead. I’ll sit in the peleton for 2014. Sans Team Margin steroids.

#37 johnny m on 11.03.13 at 8:51 pm

You’re barking up the wrong tree. Focused on the wrong issue. Nothing is going to change until rates begin to rise which could be 2-3 yes from now. We know that Realtors and their system are untouchable. They have the wagons rounded up and circling, no one can get in including the consumers group leader that only did a half a job 2 years ago to try and prise open the mls. All that she wanted to do was make a name for her own career. I can’t remember her name or know what she does now but it was an epic fail.
Nothing has changed or will change till rates go up

#38 IM in C on 11.03.13 at 8:53 pm

Psst.. there isn’t going to be a housing crash. The housing market may stop expanding, but it won’t deflate. It will hover there like the overinflated gas bag it is.

#39 Smoking Hot on 11.03.13 at 8:56 pm

#32 Smoking Hot

Well I can vouch for the average Albertan being 24K in personal debt, not including a mortgage.

They’ve all been dipping into the recently found equity of their homes and buying those shiny new 60K pick up trucks.

Cause everyone’s driving one out here.

#40 Daisy Mae on 11.03.13 at 9:01 pm

#24 Jan: “WHY IS THE GOVERNMENT SO PASSIVE ON THIS CRIMINAL ENTERPRISE???????”

********************

Could be they’ve screwed things up so royally they don’t know what to do next? Maybe that’s why they’re prorogued until the new year? We can’t possibly know what Garth knows because he has the inside track.

#41 Roman on 11.03.13 at 9:08 pm

What high scientific number are you talking about? Those crooks haven’t been able (or simply didn’t want) to provide simple slideshow on their flagship realtor’s crooksite.

So all those super-duper-cool houses look like blurry porn banners with 256x200px resolution. Yes, right – 256×200, million dollar houses.

http://cdn.realtor.ca/listing/reb82/medres/4/w27605741.jpg?PhotoId=635177228462370000

No, seriously. It’s 2013 and 256x200px?! This whole industry is insane.

#42 DaninCalgary on 11.03.13 at 9:13 pm

Is this the disease or only a symptom. Exploding debt is all around and at all levels. To me this looks like inflation and the beautiful consequence of fractional reserve lending. At least one of them in the great inflationary circle of money typing née printing.

So to all the real estate sheeple of my fair nation:

“The snake is long, seven miles. Ride the snake, he’s old and his skin is cold…”

#43 Renting in Vic on 11.03.13 at 9:16 pm

The MLS-HPI is easily defined and understood. I do not understand the issue. It is defined as the average price the realtors would like to get for the homes on their book.

#44 AK on 11.03.13 at 9:23 pm

#36 Obvious Truth on 11.03.13 at 8:42 pm
“Still some stock bulls out there. Looks like s and p wants 1800. All time Nasdaq high within sight.
I’ll be a seller for the next few months into all this strength.”
====================================

S&P 500 @ 1,800 will be trading at a whopping PE of 15. If you call that over-valued, then knock yourself out with your strategy.

#45 Shawn on 11.03.13 at 9:29 pm

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY FACTS VERSUS FICTION

Freedom First at 27 claims:

Speaking of numbers. Warren Buffett’s BH is sitting on 40 Billion $cash right now, double his usual cash holding.

********************************************

First some context. $40 billion is less than 10% of Berkshire Hathaway’s $468 billion in assets. Due to its large insurance operations Buffett always maintains a lot of cash in case there is a mega catastrophe and Berkshire has to pay out a lot of claims, perhaps just at a time when loans might be hard to come by.

It is true that Buffett has said that $20 billion is the minimum acceptable cash level at this time, so current levels are are twice the absolute minimum.

It is NOT true that $40 billion is twice the usual level. And actually the current figure is $42 billion, but close enough….

Here are the recent year-end cash figures for Berkshire:

2012 $47 billion

2011 $38 billion

2010 $38 billion

2009 $31 billion

2008 $26 billion (reduced by opportune investments that year to Goldman Saks and others)

2007 $43 billion

Now from this, how does one get $20 billion as the usual Berkshire cash level? Only by being mistaken, that’s how.

If you are going to try to follow Buffett, then start with getting the basic facts right.

#46 Mr. Reality on 11.03.13 at 9:35 pm

#12 X on 11.03.13 at 6:40 pm

The answer is simple. The government does not want to publicly shoulder the blame for being the reason why the housing markets tanks in this country. By not intervening further they have plausible deniability.

Look south of the border, the yanks are masters at it.

Mr.R.

#47 Mister Obvious on 11.03.13 at 9:37 pm

“For example, Floor Area Above Main and Floor Area Main are created in the database, and are more useful than a unique Global Living Area field. Detailed living areas by floor are aggregated and compared to the Global Living Area in MLS® HPI regressions.”
———————-

Oh, come on!

How relevant are these things when 80% of the value of most SFH resales resides in the land and not in the so-called ‘improvements’.

When evaluating a piece of freehold land in Vancouver the following question arises:

How many dump truck loads will it take to cart away all that crap sitting on top?

#48 A Yank in BC on 11.03.13 at 9:46 pm

One doesn’t have to look too hard to see a classic “Head ‘n shoulders” top in that last graph. Just saying..

#49 Macrath on 11.03.13 at 9:53 pm

#3 Larry Laffer
Isn’t the calculation of the official inflation rate subject to the same number mish-mash (i.e. excluding food, housing and gas prices for example)?
—————

All the numbers are bogus. Like the unemployment stats that don`t actually count fed up unemployed people, those that don`t qualify for unemployment insurance, social assistance folks or the guy sleeping under your local bridge.

My favorite: CPI that gives you 1% when all the necessities have risen by 10% or more.

It can`t be just the real-estate stats that are manipulated. There is never just one cockroach !

Garth ? Tin foil hat too tight?

#50 Obvious Truth on 11.03.13 at 9:54 pm

#44 AK

I know the numbers but they change. And this market is about liquidity. Let’s not pull out metrics when price discovery is non existent.

The fed, budget spending and midterms matter. I believe in their willingness to spend but I’m not betting the farm.

Let’s see with all your money.

#51 Shawn on 11.03.13 at 10:10 pm

WHAT IS THE S&P 500 PE RATIO?

AK at 44 says:

S&P 500 @ 1,800 will be trading at a whopping PE of 15. If you call that over-valued, then knock yourself out with your strategy.

****************************************
Problem is there are many wasy to calculate a P?E.

A 15 P?E at 1800 S&P means earnings of $120.

Current trailing S&P 500 earnings on an actual trailing 12 months, as reported basis, are $94.79 which is nowhere near $120. The earnings data of $94.79 is from standards and poors with 78% of the Q3 numbers having been reported so far.

Therefore in reality 1800 S&P 500 is a P/E of 19.0.

That still may not be that high considering record low interest rates. But it’s well above 15.

A P/E of 15 and $120 earnings is a forward estimate. One which is astonishingly optimistic and which omits unusual losses, as if unusual losses are not in fact quite usual in a group of 500 companies.

#52 newcomer & newgoer on 11.03.13 at 10:22 pm

#13 Grantmi
Only Rob Ford and his brother is voting in Toronto as resident citizens. Rest are immigrants who can’t vote because they are waiting for a nonsense gov’t to process their citizenship application which takes 3-4 years now.

GC is very fast with inflating and re-inflating housing bubble but very slow to check literally 6 pages of citizenship application, hit a few computer buttons to check guy’s criminal history and entries into Canada.

So I am a newcomer and newgoer. I don’t need a gov’t as such.

#53 Smoking Man on 11.03.13 at 10:30 pm

Prediction, Ford Nation will allow just one more MSM assault on Fords driveway,

After that they better bring body guards.

#54 Marginal on 11.03.13 at 10:41 pm

#35 Smoking Man on 11.03.13 at 8:37 pm

“On the Ford File, listing to callers on talk radio, majority support tubby. I love it.”
—————————————————————–
Calls are screened, so how does a talk radio show indicate support?

I think you need to consult your UCC. While you’re trying to identify with tubby on a personal basis, the rest of us are more concerned about the degree to which organized crime may have infiltrated city governance. Tubby (your choice of identifier, not mine) was photographed with three drug dealers. One is dead, one should have been after two attempts and the third is now in jail. No wonder senior homicide investigators were assigned instead of drug squad detectives. Montreal here we come?

Don’t let partisan thinking get in the way.

Now….back to Garth’s excellent post regarding number diddling. I know libertarians hate any meddling in the “free” market, but whenever there are barriers to information there is no freedom in the marketplace.

#55 45north on 11.03.13 at 11:01 pm

S. Florida: from your link: Jack laughs as he explains how during the fall of 2007 and shortly after vacating the renters and preparing for renovations he watched CNNs coverage of Lehman Brothers closing their mortgage entity BNC Mortgage.. behind the scenes the industry was already panicking and he was trying to stay as far ahead of the impending tsunami that he felt was fast approaching. But it was too late, the bank tried to re-call loans to his Real Estate investment business – money that had already been partially invested into uncompleted renovations on his remaining 8 properties.

so Jack saw it coming but instead of selling everything in 30 days he held on.

TurnerNation: I’m thinking a CMHC cap announced, of $500,000?

that would do it. GTA real estate would stop. Well that’s an exaggeration, but there would be an immediate 50% decline in sales. I’m thinking of Jim Flaherty. Do you feel lucky Jim?

#56 Notta Sheeple on 11.03.13 at 11:08 pm

A REALTURD® needs to be bipolar these days, equipped with, not one, but two sets of medications in his/her arsenal:

1. One set of downers for the Minister of Flatulence to paint a façade of a depressed housing market, thereby preventing further market tightening.

2. A second set of uppers for already manic property virgins to pump up an already overinflated housing market gasbag.

And, like matter and anti-matter, never the twain shall meet…

#57 Randy on 11.03.13 at 11:10 pm

It’s OK…you can invest in Government of Ontario Green Bonds….You will be rich…rich…rich…..haha

#58 Freedom First on 11.03.13 at 11:21 pm

#45 Shawn

Thanks for the #’s Shawn! The #’s back me up 100%.
It is easy to see that Buffett likes to hold more cash at market peaks. 42 Billion, well Shawn, there is a lot of different articles on the web about Mr. Buffett. The article I read said 40 Billion. And your snotty attitude Shawn, Kiss My A$$. I don’t take $hit from anyone.

#59 Inglorious Investor on 11.03.13 at 11:35 pm

It seems like CREA is taking lessons from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the US (e.g. CPI–like anyone believes that number).

Pretty soon CREA may start using David X. Li’s Gaussian copula function (http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazine/17-03/wp_quant?currentPage=all) to calculate home prices.

But whatever method they employ, the model can fairly be described as VaR (Verity at Risk).

#60 Steven on 11.03.13 at 11:41 pm

Anything for a commission and the bigger the better is the name of the game for realtors. Perhaps quitting while they are ahead might be a better strategy or may be start a real business that produces something people can afford to buy. Too radical?

#61 squidly77 on 11.03.13 at 11:44 pm

Ask a realtor these two questions. Ah, forget it, they will just lie anyways.

They lie so much, that they forgot they lied to begin with, And as always, just love the realtots that attack this blog claiming it preaches dishonesty and deceit.

Jumbo Shrimp.

#62 Snowboid on 11.03.13 at 11:45 pm

A Victoria real estate blog has also looked at the HPI, but even the massaged numbers can’t hide the declining prices:

“Overall the HPI tells us nothing we don’t already know. Prices on a slow downward slide since 2010. Victoria the weakest market in the country. Over 5 years, prices are down 5.6%.”

http://househuntvictoria.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-vreb-discovers-price-skewing.html

#63 Inglorious Investor on 11.03.13 at 11:45 pm

Just to show you that people will believe anything (including CREA, believe it or not), I just watched the tv doc “Smoking Gun” about the JKF assassination.

So, as the theory goes (based on the 1992 book, “Mortal Error”) SS Agent Hickey, who was riding in a car behind the prez in the motorcade, accidentally discharged his automatic rifle, and the bullet just happened to hit Jack K. right in the head. Oh, please… I mean, what are the odds? I’d be more willing to believe the bullet came from Zapruder’s 8mm Zoomatic. Or that Jackie was packing a concealed Derringer and she offed hubby for cheating with Marilyn.

#64 Snowboid on 11.03.13 at 11:53 pm

#7 Ripped on 11.03.13 at 6:20 pm…

Based on the number of Alberta plates we saw yesterday at the nearby mall, we thought most of you were already here in Phoenix.

It’s been a hot few weeks down here, even 30C yesterday – but cooling trend to the high 20s this coming week…

It’s a tough life, but this is what you can look forward to if you follow the great Professors’ teachings.

#65 Scully on 11.03.13 at 11:57 pm

Many agents don’t know how to explain the HPI to their clients. Most of them say it’s like the CPI. Ask your realtor to explain it to you and watch them sweat. But people are not interested in numbers unless they go up. Realtors offer nice shiney charts that offer just that! Smoking Man is right. The herd is stupid, irrational and lazy. This won’t end well. Extended warranty…how can I lose?

#66 Inglorious Investor on 11.03.13 at 11:58 pm

#54 Marginal on 11.03.13 at 10:41 pm

“While you’re trying to identify with tubby on a personal basis, the rest of us are more concerned about the degree to which organized crime may have infiltrated city governance.”

I’m shocked! Shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjbPi00k_ME

#67 squidly77 on 11.03.13 at 11:59 pm

The real estate boards DOM (days on market stat) useless, a liars tale.

The real estate boards reported selling price to actual original asking price, again a liars tale.

All these lies are supported by each and every realtor that pays to keep their boards alive.

You know what they say about people that regulary lie right?

They are commiting outright fraud.

#68 squidly77 on 11.04.13 at 12:05 am

I am so very happy and extremley satisfied that Canadians have been enlightened by this blog and Ross kay’s site to the real estate fraud that’s occuring in Canada, too bad its just to late for so many.

#69 squidly77 on 11.04.13 at 12:12 am

The realtors cry, OK, sure we lie about the DOM stat and the ask to selling price stat, that’s a given, but trust us, that’s as far as the lies go. We would never lie about anything else. Honest.

OK.

#70 juno on 11.04.13 at 12:27 am

Just like Hitler–>

These charts are not statistical analysis. They are simple Propaganda. Aimed at brainwashing the sheeples.

You know there is a problem when you have to strain away from traditional statistics and create your own franken-numbers

#71 BG on 11.04.13 at 12:34 am

I have decided to create a balanced portfolio for a long term investment using the TD e-series indexed funds.
20% Canadian equities
20% US Equities
20% International equities
40% Canadian bonds

The problem is I’m paralyzed . I’ve never invested before.
I decided to start with only 10k, but even with that I keep on watching the indexes everyday trying to find a good time to enter…

#72 willworkforpickles on 11.04.13 at 12:36 am

So the CREA fudges the numbers and stands reality upside down on its head….so too will the people in the mortgage industry assuring that homeowners can absorb higher mortgage payments. A report from the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals said there is “very substantial room” for households to pay higher mortgage rates. The short lived US government shutdown has reversed any momentum for rising rates here currently but this will soon be a faded memory.

#73 omg on 11.04.13 at 12:49 am

#11 Not 1st

The Dow and NASDAQ in a bubble???
————————————–
There are lots of valuation metrics that you can use to show the equities markets are slightly overvalued or slightly undervalued, but there are no rational metrics that would lead to the conclusion that they are in a bubble.

Basically the DOW is lower in real terms than it was at its top in 1999 and about equal to what it was in 2007.

A return to 3% US GDP growth will put the DOW through 18,000 or maybe even 20,000.

The NASDAQ is still 25% lower than its peak in 2000 and made up of a completely different mix of companies, some which being spectacularly profitable.

#74 Devore on 11.04.13 at 1:07 am

#58 Freedom First

Thanks for the #’s Shawn! The #’s back me up 100%.
It is easy to see that Buffett likes to hold more cash at market peaks

How so? $42B is only a few billion more than usual, and still a small % of assets, which have grown over the years, so that $42B isn’t as big as it sounds. And how do you figure this marks market top? Shawn’s #s are year-end, hardly the best way to judge “market top”.

As for snooty attitude, it’s easy when you’re dishing out hard facts, assuming they are correct. It is you who is taking liberties interpreting them.

#75 Tiger on 11.04.13 at 1:15 am

58 # I like that!

#76 Son of Ponzi on 11.04.13 at 1:39 am

I always wondered what will happen to a society that proudly proclaims that a dog is a man’s best friend.

#77 Tiger on 11.04.13 at 1:46 am

Don d west and western man you both have west in your name !!!!! I know from the begining you two smelled the same!!!!

#78 Tiger on 11.04.13 at 2:00 am

Don d west western man. Are you two gay, brothers ,friends , realtards or just idiots

#79 TakingResponsibility on 11.04.13 at 2:50 am

Excellent informative post on the Frankenumber (and ‘methodology’).

The Frankenumber basically pushes an Answer onto data.

Clear fraudulent intent.

Ha. Just wait, the cartel will come to realize that the right notion of error to minimize in their Frankenumber ‘model’ will be the sum of the absolute value of the errors in the predictions (since this quantity will be proportional to the total money people lost), not the sum of the squared errors that Frankenumber Least Squares now uses.

#80 Buy? Curious? on 11.04.13 at 7:19 am

If everyone knows that the numbers lie, realtors lie and Bigrider lies, why do people continue to particapate in the carade? If you think that the market is going to crash and you own a home, why don’t you sell it then? If you’re renting, how long do you plan to wait out the market for it to correct? 1 year, 3 years, 10 years? I don’t understand why people are so shocked when they find out they’ve been lied to. Everyone does it and there is hardly any punishment even if you’re caught in a lie. Memories and attention spans are short, like Bigrider.

Not to sound like Smoking Man (gawd, I’m surprised at myself as to how often I’m paraphrasing his ideas in casual conversations at dinner parties. MILF’s love it though) but learn to do whatever is neccessary to succeed or accept being poor and stop complaining. I bought a few shares of Lockheed Martin (LMT-NYSE). Do I give a hoot what they do?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7edeOEuXdMU

#81 Tony on 11.04.13 at 8:47 am

I notice the increase in junk flyers in the mail to buy houses. Also the section for real estate in the Sunday Sun newspaper is now separate from the rest of the newspaper. All this will increase in the future spelling doom for real estate.

#82 TurnerNation on 11.04.13 at 8:52 am

Today’s pic. From Bandit’s pin up calendar?

#83 TurnerNation on 11.04.13 at 8:55 am

People don’t change. They values they learn at <10yrs old stick.

Do you see an addict's eyes here? 1999.

Of all the possible mayoral candidates, must it be an addict? King Ford? Best we've got?
Doug F seems more level headed.

http://www.torontolife.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/rob-ford-scandal-A001.jpg

#84 Westcdn on 11.04.13 at 9:06 am

Nothing new to add to this blog – only personal opinions. Deflation is nasty process for any profit oriented economic activity. Why would a rational person buy something today when they can buy it tomorrow at a lower price? The real estate industry have an incentive to keep that perception out of consumer minds. The commissions charged on real estate transactions are dependent on volume although a few realtors can make good money out of catering to the few transactions of the ultra wealthy. In my view, if enough 1st time buyers anticipate lower prices tomorrow, then sales volumes will fall rapidly but prices will be sticky – nobody wants to give up paper profits. Without volume, the real estate industry starves. Their best solution is to show the real estate market as a can’t miss investment for your savings. Expect nothing but the most positive spin from their stats. As with all purchases and investments – buyer beware. “Now” is an expensive word for me – fail to plan, plan to fail.

#85 Ralph Cramdown on 11.04.13 at 9:12 am

The junior editor really wanted to call the story “Five Weird Stocks Warren Buffett is Buying Right Now to Reduce Belly Fat,” but the senior editor wouldn’t let him. Keep clicking on that link bait.

“NASDAQ is in a bubble”? That’s good news. The NASDAQ is always in a bubble, except at the worst of times, just like the TSXV. It’s where companies without E go to discover P. The true test is whether everybody and their grandmother is frantically trading the NASDAQ. They ain’t. You’re in a bubble if you think everybody is trading Tesla and hoping to get 1,000 Twitter. Get some perspective and discover that in the real world, most retail investors are still heavily in bonds or cash.

#86 Renter's Revenge! on 11.04.13 at 9:36 am

@ BG

So you’ve decided to take a passive approach to investing, but are unsure about how to time the market. Read this, it might help:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2013/10/26/warren-buffett-investment-advice/3188499/

#87 recharts on 11.04.13 at 9:51 am

#84 Westcdn on 11.04.13 at 9:06 am
Nothing new to add to this blog – only personal opinions. Deflation is nasty process for any profit oriented economic activity. Why would a rational person buy something today when they can buy it tomorrow at a lower price? The real estate industry have an incentive to keep that perception out of consumer minds. The commissions charged on real estate transactions are dependent on volume although a few realtors can make good money out of catering to the few transactions of the ultra wealthy. In my view, if enough 1st time buyers anticipate lower prices tomorrow, then sales volumes will fall rapidly but prices will be sticky – nobody wants to give up paper profits. Without volume, the real estate industry starves. Their best solution is to show the real estate market as a can’t miss investment for your savings. Expect nothing but the most positive spin from their stats. As with all purchases and investments – buyer beware. “Now” is an expensive word for me – fail to plan, plan to fail.

It is happening for condos “as we speak”
The first to exit the market are the Realtors themselves.
How do you spot them? Simply! Many of them invested in condos, high end units. Many times they were the sales agents for that building where they invested. These high end units are now selling driving the average price up. You will see that these guys stayed with the listing for the entire period (ex:180 days) . No sane agent will stay with a listing for that long unless it is his own.

PS: they will post the numbers today…expect the Avg Condo price to reach 390K in Toronto. The median is way below that and the sales are down (they will probably say the contrary)

Co-Op Apt 7
Co-Ownership Apt 6
Comm Element Condo 9
Condo Apt 1116
Condo Townhouse 198
Det Condo 1
Detached 2
Leasehold Condo 1
Parking Space 3

If we exclude the parking spots and the Condo Townhouses and count everything else in one category, this month they sold 1142 units
One year before, same month, they sold 1141 units and that was -14% under 2011.
I wish them luck with the new inventory hitting the market.

#88 Ralph Cramdown on 11.04.13 at 10:08 am

#71 BG — “I have decided to create a balanced portfolio for a long term investment using the TD e-series indexed funds. […] The problem is I’m paralyzed . I’ve never invested before. I decided to start with only 10k, but even with that I keep on watching the indexes everyday trying to find a good time to enter.”

You’ve planned your trade, and I think it’s a good one. Now trade your plan. Your strategy does not call for picking entry points. Just buy the funds, set up automatic monthly investment and the DRIP, decide when you’re going to rebalance, and go do something fun until it’s time to rebalance.

If you’re staring at prices every day and it isn’t something you enjoy, you’re losing out on one of the major advantages of couch potato style investing.

#89 Daisy Mae on 11.04.13 at 10:15 am

#46 Mr. Reality: “By not intervening further they have plausible deniability.”

**************************

The CONS are a lot of things. But they aren’t in denial.

#90 Daisy Mae on 11.04.13 at 10:17 am

News Alert
BlackBerry shares plunge 19% to $6.33 after announcement

For the latest on this breaking story, visit http://www.cbcnews.ca

***********************

The announcement? They’re not selling. Instead, they’re firing their CEO.

#91 sciencemonkey on 11.04.13 at 10:26 am

I’m a big fan of Smoking Man, but this Tiger guy is spouting gibberish.

@71 BG: Better informed commenters have previously written about this. I think the conclusion is that a) you can’t time indices, and b) for a high percentage of the time, you come out ahead jumping in ASAP, because otherwise you miss time in market for growth to occur.

Another strategy would be to average in over something like 10 months. (For this to work, you need zero transaction fees, so those funds are good.) In the first month buy $1000 worth, so $200/$200/$200/$400. Every subsequent month use $1000 to either a) buy so that everything falls back to the 20/20/20/40 percent distribution, or b) buy the usual $200/$200/$200/$400, and rebalance the percentages once or twice a year.

#92 Ralph Cramdown on 11.04.13 at 10:27 am

We are in a Golden Age of Price Discovery.

Prices, and analysis and commentary on those prices have never been more widely available for little or no cost. Never have more markets been tradable and transparent — cash, futures, options and ‘other’ (VIX anyone?).

Transactional frictions have never been lower. Spreads have never been narrower. Securities fraud investigations and market surveillance have never been more diligent. Execution and trade reporting have never been faster. The Fed and other central banks have never been more transparent about their current and future market activities.

Don’t compare current price discovery to a utopia. Compare it to the way things used to be.

#93 Serge on 11.04.13 at 10:30 am

GTA Weekly Drop – November 2, 2013
http://gtapricedrop.blogspot.ca/

#94 jess on 11.04.13 at 10:34 am

From Confessions of a Confidence Man: A Handbook for Suckers by Edward H. Smith (New York: Scientific American Publishing Company, 1923) pg. 35-37
=======
“The new nation would never have prospered without imposture, speculation, and counterfeiting, because America was, from its inception, a confidence trick,” Reading writes.
http://www.amyreading.com/inside-the-book/the-nine-stages-of-the-big-con/six-and-seven-stages-of-the-big-con/

http://truth-out.org/opinion/item/19692-obamacare-the-biggest-insurance-scam-in-history

Stephen Butler of the Heritage Foundation
The Robert Wood Johnson foundation
“public-private partnership” model
The law was passed under a Republican governor, Mitt Romney.

#95 Macrath on 11.04.13 at 10:38 am

#71 BG

Dollar cost average your way into the market, buy on weakness, never take a full position all at once because it always drops the day after you buy. Take profits and re-balance.

http://www.aaii.com/investing/article/starting-with-dollar-cost-averaging

Dollar-cost averaging is a poor second to establishing value points along a 200-day moving average and being patient. — Garth

#96 Smoking Man on 11.04.13 at 10:42 am

#54 Marginal on 11.03.13 at 10:41 pm

I think you suffer from a condition known as

Anti-Fatsoism

Probably started in high school when you acted on subliminal cues from teachers to pic on the fat kids.

Let’s faced it, fat people smell, we think of them as pigs, eating machines.

It takes a great mind, disiplin in the thought process to get over that stereo type to have a clear picture of what’s going on.

Spin it all you want you suffer from Anti-Fatsoism.

#97 mid on 11.04.13 at 10:45 am

Friends bought a house in Old Oakville for 600K in 2003.
Just sold for 1.1 K last month. Not a bad profit for 10 years. When they put their house up for sale late summer I was really worried for them, but they made out okay. Can’t tell them there is anything wrong with real estate. Best investment ever.

Nobody is arguing that real estate has appreciated over the past 10 years. However if that was a balanced portfolio it would be worth $1.2 million today. More importantly, the years of rapid real estate growth are in the rear view mirror. — Garth

#98 Daisy Mae on 11.04.13 at 10:45 am

#84 Westcdn: “Why would a rational person buy something today when they can buy it tomorrow at a lower price? The real estate industry have an incentive to keep that perception out of consumer minds.”

****************

We encounter such pressure all the time — “SALE ENDS TOMORROW!” But if tomorrow comes and goes, will the company refuse me the sale price the following day? If they do, they’re fools.

#99 mid on 11.04.13 at 11:01 am

# 71 BG
I did exactly the same thing as you this summer. Same amount of money. Same investments. Just to test the water. Very pleased so far. Like you I would like to add some more money to these investments. Also watching from the sidelines wondering when to jump in a bit deeper.

#100 Snowboid on 11.04.13 at 11:04 am

On the other hand, talking about declining RE values…

Here’s what can happen to historical high-end properties, courtesy of this exclusive homes’ history in Paradise Valley, near Phoenix AZ. The McCune mansion is one of the 25 largest homes in the US, at 52,000 sq ft.

Listed 2007 – $ 25 million
By 2011 – $ 15 million
Today – $ 10 million

Of course, it does need some updating and new carpet in some of the rooms – and is listed as a ‘fixer’, but who doesn’t want 14 bedrooms and 23 bathrooms?

Not to mention room to play with the 257,000 sq ft lot and 2900 sq ft guest house.

Maybe some folks are turned off by the $ 130,000 annual property tax bill?

Or the over 2100 DOM?

http://tinyurl.com/PV-Mansion

#101 mid on 11.04.13 at 11:15 am

# 97
Thanks for your comment Garth. They moved out of Ontario–to Halifax–he got a new job there. I suggested they rent and invest the profits from their Oakville sale. But alas they just purchased quite a lovely house in Halifax for 1M. Bigger than the Oakville house. Odd, since their kids are off to post-secondary soon. They think they will be there 10 years. Also claim to have next to no savings. Think they assume the house will eventually be their savings.

#102 Mike T. on 11.04.13 at 11:21 am

‘Friends bought a house in Old Oakville for 600K in 2003.
Just sold for 1.1 K last month’

What Mr Turner said.

Today’s story, and the story of the near future, will the one about the guy that bought that house for 1.1 million. What’s gonna happen to him/them/her?

We are going to find out….

#103 Macrath on 11.04.13 at 11:23 am

Dollar-cost averaging is a poor second to establishing value points along a 200-day moving average and being patient. — Garth
—————————
There you go BG ! The reason why this is Canada`s top financial blog.

Also , go to the library and read Money Road and After the Crash.

#104 Godth on 11.04.13 at 11:26 am

#96 Smoking Man

Ford looks as though he’s one hit away from an aneurysm. I’m not judging the man, just calling it like I sees it. He’s going to pop.

#105 Ronaldo on 11.04.13 at 11:37 am

#98 Daisy May –

”We encounter such pressure all the time — “SALE ENDS TOMORROW!” But if tomorrow comes and goes, will the company refuse me the sale price the following day? If they do, they’re fools.”

The thing is Daisy, tomorrow never comes. A pub had a sign in the window saying “Free Beer Tomorrow”. The old guy comes back the next day and says I would like to get a free beer that you advertised yesterday. Bar tender points to the sign in the window and says, “that’ll be tomorrow”. Today it’s regular price.

#106 Mister Obvious on 11.04.13 at 12:10 pm

#84 Westcdn

“Deflation is nasty process for any profit oriented economic activity. Why would a rational person buy something today when they can buy it tomorrow at a lower price”
——————————

Maybe because they need (or desperately want) that thing today? What if that something is breakfast?

I agree with you that deflation is very bad news but I recall PC sales during the 1990’s. Every year you could buy more memory and processing power for equal or even less money. That didn’t seem to put much of a damper on sales as I recall.

While we’re on the subject of computers here’s another myth we can smash:

“Doing the same thing over and over while expecting a different result is the definition of insanity”

Ever tired a link and not connected the first time? Did you give up and never try again… or… did you click a few more times and suddenly, you’re in.

Hey, are you nuts?

#107 SofaKing on 11.04.13 at 12:16 pm

Frankennumbers – the stock market is filled with the same pie in the sky bs charts. So where is one supposed to put their hard earnef money? This retarded housing market or the other retarded stock market?

#108 Ralph Cramdown on 11.04.13 at 12:19 pm

Deflation and rational buyers

In the world of retail sales, there’s plenty of buyers who are neither rational nor well informed. Walk into a new car dealership at the beginning of the month, two months before the new models are due, and you’re bound to find somebody paying full sticker, plus rustproofing, VIN etching and floormats, for a no-option stripper econobox in metallic puce, likely the one Consumer Reports rated “below average.”

Similarly, neither “it cashflows” nor “prices are going to go up” are likely the most popular reason for young homebuyers. Both rank below “we’re pregnant.” In a non-cyclical, non bubble-prone real estate market, that’s rational, and some cities ARE relatively non-cyclical.

How the burghers of Calgary, Regina and Winnipeg managed to convince the gulls that prices are rising because of a shortage of land is completely beyond me, though.

#109 heineken on 11.04.13 at 12:28 pm

warren buffet is a mis-information planted by the us govt.

it appears that many individuals feel that garth is a misformation agent as well- unfortunately let go by the cdn gov’t.

#110 Son of Ponzi on 11.04.13 at 12:37 pm

I worked at the bank in the late 90’s and the young guns in Treasury declared that the business cycle was dead because of all the new technology. The early 2000’s proved them wrong.
Now they are saying that debt is irrelevant.
Fools them all.

#111 Son of Ponzi on 11.04.13 at 12:38 pm

# 92
Utopia. You got that one right.

#112 Mixed Bag on 11.04.13 at 12:44 pm

#35 Smoking Man on 11.03.13 at 8:37 pm

On the Ford File, listing to callers on talk radio, majority support tubby. I love it.

And many where asking why the MSM is not shoving cameras up queens park re libs.

—–
I ask the same question to the Ford-haters at work. Tell them the gas plant $$$ fiasco affects them directly via their wallet, but Ford doing whatever doesn’t affect them at all. And which one do they pop a vein over?

One is relatable, immediate, concept easily grasped, emotional. The gas plant $$$ numbers are just too big to grasp, seem abstract, go over most people’s heads. Despite the fiasco, the Lib’s will win again; Hudak just looks weird and frustrated. That’s immediately relatable.

#113 MtlWatcher on 11.04.13 at 12:57 pm

For those interested in the Montreal market.

You’ll find some interesting declines and increases in depending on the area. (we all know RE is local).

Again, you never know what stats to trust in… (so use this on your own risk, as is)

http://blogues.lapresse.ca/lapresseaffaires/immobilier/2013/11/01/des-baisses-de-plus-de-10-a-montreal/

http://www.fciq.ca/pdf/bar/bar_20133_mtl_fr.pdf

(sorry, no English version available)

#114 Smoking Man on 11.04.13 at 12:58 pm

#104 Godth on 11.04.13 at 11:26 am

Aggreed, he should start smoking.

I quit smoking on my 40TH Birthday, went from 180 to 280 in 5 years, could not lose the weight.

Was in bad health, almost became diabetic, blood pressure though the roof.

Deliberately start smoking again.

With in a year was 180 again

My logic, lots of old smokers around, how many fat people you see around after 55. Not many.

It was a no brainer for me.

#115 MtlWatcher on 11.04.13 at 12:58 pm

(continuation of previous comment. )

and please… don’t run to see your mortgage lender, there is even more (and better) coming soon.

#116 arealtor on 11.04.13 at 1:01 pm

yup….blame everything on CREA and Real Estate Boards…That seems to be the prevailing sentiment in each and every article this guy writes…i guess its OREA, CREA and all the rest that are behind global warming too.
What a riot this blog is! Keep drinking Garth’s koolaid…maybe, if we are lucky, he will take all of you with him to his new home in Guyana where you can all live in harmony.
What happened Garth? Did you buy a house backing onto train tracks and have ever since blamed your agent for that?? What a HATER!

Also, on a side note…
I didnt get a chance to comment on garths recent topic – recycled virgins- but that article also left me dumbfounded. Of course an agent will do whatever they can to get their clients home sold-THEY WORK FOR THE VENDOR!!!! If you are a buyer and you are working with a good agent, they will disclose all the history associated with the property because….THEY WORK FOR THE BUYER!!! If you decide to not use the services of a realtor then thats your problem….You want to be a DIY’er then go change some light bulbs around your house!

Maybe all realtors should band together and pick on each and every one of your professions….but, we would find no wrong doing there right? Like those of you working in the financial industry.

Bitter much? — Garth

#117 Sebee on 11.04.13 at 1:39 pm

What do we know about house prices and HPI? If a house on land is too expensive for you, G&M says you should consider a floating house.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/home-of-the-week-taking-the-helm-of-a-houseboat-home/article15184721/

#118 Smoking Man on 11.04.13 at 2:10 pm

#112 Mixed Bag on 11.04.13 at 12:44 pm

Best outcome right now, province libs, win a weak minority, that way we can finally throw Hudak Under the bus, and get some one who can win.

I’m thinking Doug Holiday….

#119 frank le skank on 11.04.13 at 2:22 pm

#116 arealtor on 11.04.13 at 1:01 pm
Maybe all realtors should band together and pick on each and every one of your professions
———–

I’m in telecommunications so I think you’ll find that this industry has no imperfections.
———–

Cramdown: that was a joke so no need to fly off the handle today.

#120 MiniMe on 11.04.13 at 2:28 pm

#116 arealtor on 11.04.13 at 1:01 pm
yup….blame everything on CREA and Real Estate Boards…That seems to be the prevailing sentiment in each and every article this guy writes…i guess its OREA, CREA and all the rest that are behind global warming too.
What a riot this blog is! Keep drinking Garth’s koolaid…maybe, if we are lucky, he will take all of you with him to his new home in Guyana where you can all live in harmony.
What happened Garth? Did you buy a house backing onto train tracks and have ever since blamed your agent for that?? What a HATER!

Also, on a side note…
I didnt get a chance to comment on garths recent topic – recycled virgins- but that article also left me dumbfounded. Of course an agent will do whatever they can to get their clients home sold-THEY WORK FOR THE VENDOR!!!! If you are a buyer and you are working with a good agent, they will disclose all the history associated with the property because….THEY WORK FOR THE BUYER!!! If you decide to not use the services of a realtor then thats your problem….You want to be a DIY’er then go change some light bulbs around your house!

Maybe all realtors should band together and pick on each and every one of your professions….but, we would find no wrong doing there right? Like those of you working in the financial industry.
Hey dumbass there is no way you and your colleagues can comment on other professions simply because you have no idea what those professions mean
On the other side as you can see we can easily comment on your “profession” because that is not a profession. I am not aware of any profession that is paid your money and requires 6 months of studying and minimal risks and responsibilities

#121 World Traveller on 11.04.13 at 2:29 pm

Hey, look, you can pile a bunch of rocks onto a high rise and sell it as a penthouse!

http://gizmodo.com/elaborate-chinese-real-estate-scam-traps-owners-in-ille-1458155129?utm_campaign=socialflow_gizmodo_facebook&utm_source=gizmodo_facebook&utm_medium=socialflow

#122 Seeing it from both sides on 11.04.13 at 2:36 pm

Garth, if you had used the same time frame for both charts, the second chart would look as moderate as the first. You probably know this already, but did it for ‘special fx’. Looking at the charts from a technical analysis perspective, there isn’t that parabolic pattern that screams ‘tiiimmmberrrr’ yet.

Both charts are from the Van board, and are unaltered. If you think one is an elongated version of the other, you must be a snake. — Garth

#123 Son of Ponzi on 11.04.13 at 2:47 pm

# 117
“G&M says you should consider a floating house”.
That’s another of the advantage of my Bauhaus outhouse.
It has an attachment for an outboard motor. Crafty Germans.
Can come handy here in Richmond when the flood comes.

#124 Son of Ponzi on 11.04.13 at 2:50 pm

#116 a realtor.
“and you are working with a good realtor”.
There the problem right there.

#125 Tony on 11.04.13 at 3:14 pm

Re: #107 SofaKing on 11.04.13 at 12:16 pm

I’d put it in base metals mainly iron ore because the U.S. banks will try to deleverage and at the same time bond purchases will increase not decrease resulting in a “run on the U.S. dollar”.

#126 Seeing it from both sides on 11.04.13 at 3:15 pm

Ahhhh….I caught your reply before you deleted my comment and your reply. Just as well…your reply was a head -scratcher.

I deleted nothing. — Garth

#127 Vince on 11.04.13 at 3:24 pm

The second chart is a little misleading. It’s bad, but not _that_ bad. I would have normalized for inflation to offer up real pricing. If not comfortable using CPI, there are other indicators that might be more appropriate (GDP-IPI?).

Even changing the chart in that manner would show that the price level of houses is multiples of what it was in the 1970s.

You would probably want to normalize for improvement in average income levels throughout the country, to make sense of things domestically at least.

There are lots of ways to massage numbers I guess…

The current reality that I see/feel is that when you go through what I will call the ’emotion-removed analysis’ it makes more sense to rent than buy, especially-so in certain markets, and if you are young in your career you would be wise to ensure your mobility with respect to employment, if jobs dry up wherever you are. If it happens, at least you can pick up and move in 60 days if you are a renter.

#128 arealtor on 11.04.13 at 3:25 pm

#124
I understand that not all agents are ‘good ones’ but how is this different from any other profession??
Financial planner, Police officer, Teacher, Priests!!
I will be the first to admit that their are ‘rotten apples’ in my industry but surely you could understand my frustration in having us all painted with the same brush.
Good, honest and ethical realtors far outnumber the bad ones. Unfortunately, when the real estate market gets hot, everyone and their uncle decide they should become a realtor…these are the bad apples…they are in it for the perceived ‘quick buck’…they are also the ones to give up their licenses when the going gets tough (market slows down). Proof of this is in the TREB membership numbers…I believe their are about 35000 realtors in the GTA at present. Record territory.

#129 arealtor on 11.04.13 at 3:39 pm

#120 Minime

Have to resort to name calling huh? To borrow one of Garth’s favourite lines…BITTER MUCH?
Is that what irks you…how much money we make? boo hoo….where were you before the upswing in average home prices? Were those commissions payable to my peers and I more palatable for you?
And who are you to speak of professionalism anyways?
What do you do?
Im university educated and chose to enter this field- Length of study is what determines a profession in your mind?

At the risk of you looking like an idiot (oh wait, too late) you should really know what you are talking about before you open your big mouth. Realtors have to abide by an extensive code of ethics and bylaws. You feel wronged by a realtor, report it! CREA, OREA, TREB …none of them have any qualms about doling out disciplinary action so i dont know what you are talking about.

#130 Ralph Cramdown on 11.04.13 at 3:56 pm

#127 arealtor — “I will be the first to admit that their are ‘rotten apples’ in [the real estate] industry but surely you could understand my frustration in having us all painted with the same brush.”

I understand the frustration. But you have to understand that you are collectively responsible. Real estate brokerage in Ontario (and elsewhere) is a self regulated industry; the provincial government has delegated the responsibility for licensing, training and enforcement to the Real Estate Council of Ontario, a majority of whose board is elected by its members. TREB is also run by people elected by its members. Enforcement is a joke, licensing requirements are slim, published statistics are questionable, your public facing technology platform sucks, a number of brokerages are puppy mills for inexperienced agents while others allow agents to park their licenses without doing deals for years… and your profession must collectively be OK with that because it is solely within your power to change it.

I encourage for you to run for a leadership role in your self-regulatory organizations and help to reform them.

#131 Rabbit One on 11.04.13 at 4:05 pm

Reading recent Garth’s blog comments, bears were in fatigue during Aug – Sep period.
End of Oct to now, more confident tone.

My opinion, with massive mortgage debt, many people
carry 4~5 time (or even way more) annual gross salary,
with no price down, but just R/E price stagnate, the are all in trouble.

They can carry that much debt only when assets keep increasing, or your income increase dramatically.
I don’t see that happen at the same time in this Canadian economic environment.

#132 DM in C on 11.04.13 at 4:37 pm

A Realtor (116,128,129);

You must be new here. If you are THIS thin-skinned, I suggest this isn’t the place for you. Even if you aren’t thin-skinned, this isn’t the place for you.

#133 not 1st on 11.04.13 at 4:39 pm

Gulp…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/life-video/micro-lofts-drawing-big-interest-in-bc/article15232646/

#134 not 1st on 11.04.13 at 4:42 pm

#114 Smoking Man on 11.04.13 at 12:58 pm

Was in bad health, almost became diabetic, blood pressure though the roof.
__________

All manageable with medication and a bit of lifestyle change.

Cancer…not so much

#135 arealtor on 11.04.13 at 4:45 pm

#130 Ralph Cramdown

Be that as it may, the way I and many others conduct themselves on a daily basis would not change the slightest regardless of who oversees our industry. Either you care about your job and your clients or you dont. The ones who dont never last.

You bring up valid points- we are very much self regulated and for the most part, the ‘overseers’ are elected by the membership but that does not mean we are not policed. On our MLS platform, there is a link that lists any and all disciplinary action that has been handed down…complete with detailed information on what the wrong doing was. It is updated daily. From the looks of it, people are being held accountable.

Education: apart from the initial study required to obtain your license, every two years realtors have to complete 30 hours of continuing education (brush up). With heavy emphasis being put on RECO’s (Real estate council of Ontario) Code of Ethics.

Office audits by RECO are routine. With heavy fines for infractions. And trust me, they impose fines routinely.

I cant speak for stats put out by the aforementioned groups because i dont use them! What I can say is when i am dealing with a buyer or a seller, the stats i use are accurate and meaningful for the task at hand (determining a fair market value). Where prices are headed and where they were a year ago have no use in my life for the most part.

I do however agree that the initial educational requirements be beefed up. This would help deter fly-by-nighters. This in itself would go a long way to improve our image. There was talk of making it a college program…not sure where that is at.

What irks me is this idea that we are lawless….when in fact, we are policed more than other professions such as a financial advisor. People who handle all of our life savings. As a realtor i have a FIDUCIARY DUTY to my client….I must do what is in my clients best interests….a financial advisor does not (I believe maybe 2% of them actually can claim to have). So they can recommend you move all your money into Fund “A” under the guise that its a better investment for you…meanwhile, he is putting your money there because that fund happens to pay the highest commission! Where is the outcry about that profession?? – I know, wrong blog…

#136 MiniMe on 11.04.13 at 4:51 pm

#129 arealtor on 11.04.13 at 3:39 pm
#120 Minime

Have to resort to name calling huh? To borrow one of Garth’s favourite lines…BITTER MUCH?
Is that what irks you…how much money we make? boo hoo….where were you before the upswing in average home prices? Were those commissions payable to my peers and I more palatable for you?
And who are you to speak of professionalism anyways?
What do you do?
Im university educated and chose to enter this field- Length of study is what determines a profession in your mind?

At the risk of you looking like an idiot (oh wait, too late) you should really know what you are talking about before you open your big mouth. Realtors have to abide by an extensive code of ethics and bylaws. You feel wronged by a realtor, report it! CREA, OREA, TREB …none of them have any qualms about doling out disciplinary action so i don’t know what you are talking about.
—————-
As far as I am concerned you are just a band of opportunists.
As long as THE MOST of you do not protest against what is going on with the stats that you fudge and spin month after month you are all the same. All that B$ with the moral standards that some of you pretend to have goes down the drain as soon as we hit this subject: raw data and stats.

You pretend that MOST of you are honest. I beg to differ. If that would be the case we wouldn’t have to chase you and your associations to fix your f..ing number.

No matter what profession I am in, you can hardly find one that is so disrespected and hated as yours.

Many idiots pay to go to University these days. To go there and to switch to Real Estate as soon as you finish might be an idiocy, a waste of time and money especially if you pretend that RE is your vocation.

Speaking about other professions, let’s admit for a second that “RE agent” is a profession; most of the other professions are regulated and chartered. None of the ones that I know is a monopoly like yours and none of them has such an impact on the life or the others by their manipulations as your profession. And the most important of all NONE of them is so easily accessible to anybody.

I might be the insane one here. Do you ever wonder how many people actually hate you guys and how many find you useful and necessary?

Do you have the guts to start a poll on this topic?

#137 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.04.13 at 4:57 pm

#118 Smoking Man on 11.04.13 at 2:10 pm
#112 Mixed Bag on 11.04.13 at 12:44 pm
Best outcome right now, province libs, win a weak minority, that way we can finally throw Hudak Under the bus, and get some one who can win.

I’m thinking Doug Holiday….

_____________________________________________

Not a bad pick at all Smoking Man! The Conservatives need a face that can win. They may not get a good run with Timmy. As far as the Liberals go take them and throw them into the Lake. I’m pissed that they spent approximately one billion dollars of our money to buy to seats in those riding’s. I even live in one of those riding’s and it was utterly disgusting how they got away with it. You know what Ms Wynne? You can go take a #[email protected]#% with your lying ass Liberal Party. We need a fresh start with a new government. A government that was ELECTED, NOT APPOINTED! God help us if we elect another lame duck Liberal Minority Government. WTF was everybody smoking on election day?

Rant Done, Thanks Smoking Man needed that!

#138 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.04.13 at 4:59 pm

Smoking Man this is FYI, I told you before about where you parked your boat over in Niagara Falls New York.
Well this is right beside it. Don’t ever get in the water near there!

http://news.msn.com/us/suits-claim-love-canal-still-oozing-35-years-later

#139 jess on 11.04.13 at 5:18 pm

SAC Capital
http://www.justice.gov/usao/nys/pressreleases/November13/SACPleaPR.php

..”As alleged in the Indictment, from 1999 through at least 2010, numerous employees of the SAC Companies obtained and traded on material, non-public information that they were not permitted to have (“Inside Information”), or recommended trades based on such information to SAC Portfolio Managers (“SAC PMs”) or the SAC Owner. Specifically, the Indictment charges the SAC Companies with insider trading offenses committed by numerous employees, occurring over the span of more than a decade, and involving the securities of more than 20 publicly-traded companies across multiple sectors of the economy. As charged in the Indictment, the systematic insider trading engaged in by SAC PMs and Research Analysts was the predictable and foreseeable result of multiple institutional failures. The failures alleged included hiring practices heavily focused on recruiting employees with networks of public company insiders, the failure of SAC management to question employees about trades that appeared to be based on Inside Information, and ineffective compliance measures that failed to prevent or detect such trading, particularly prior to late 2009.

The Complaint in the Forfeiture Action alleges that the SAC Companies engaged in money laundering by commingling the illegal profits from insider trading with other assets, using the profits to promote additional insider trading, and transferring the profits with the assistance of financial institutions….

#140 Smoking Man on 11.04.13 at 5:19 pm

#138 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.04.13 at 4:59 pm

I read that this morning, won’t be docking there. But might up in Tonawanda, just hope it don’t catch fire when one of the buildings go up.

Anyone who buys a place in muskoka is an idiot, should see the spectacular properties you can buy on the cheap on grand Island, hour and a bit from Toronto.

#141 World Traveller on 11.04.13 at 5:25 pm

Looks like it’s possible to turn a profit as a landlord in the USA, why buy in Canada?

http://mashable.com/2013/11/04/bought-apartment-rent-airbnb/?utm_cid=mash-com-fb-main-link

#142 MiniMe on 11.04.13 at 5:32 pm


by arealtor
I cant speak for stats put out by the aforementioned groups because i dont use them! What I can say is when i am dealing with a buyer or a seller, the stats i use are accurate and meaningful for the task at hand (determining a fair market value). Where prices are headed and where they were a year ago have no use in my life for the most part.

—————————-

This statement here speaks volumes. Just a gigantic sample of egoism and moral standards. If he/she does not use them he/she does not care.
If you are his/her client you will be fine…. otherwise may you rot in hell, I am not going to do anything for fixing this.
Carefully he/she is avoiding the issue by not saying if the numbers are right or wrong or if the whole situation is OK
The message is clear: pay me and you will be fine.

You are so full of it!

#143 Steve on 11.04.13 at 5:37 pm

If you want to buy a condo/house, the answer seems to be get the hell out of the GTA, Vancouver etc. 3 years ago I bought a brand new 1,050 squ foot condo for $150K. Hard to believe I’m in for too severe of negative market correction on that or that I’d be any better off renting from a cash flow perspective.

#144 ICahn Fund makes $$$ on 11.04.13 at 5:59 pm

Up 1500% since 2000….22% PER YEAR AVERAGE!….what do you think of this in a balanced portfolio Garth?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/carl-icahn-heres-rich-youd-150342813.html

#145 Rob Ford's love child on 11.04.13 at 6:02 pm

What distinguishes the best realtor from the rest?
Number of sales or dollar volume, that’s it. There is no ‘award’ at Remax for having ‘happy customers’, a happy customer doesn’t want to move. People typing variations on ‘The Government should do something to protect us form realtors’, should give it up. Trust me, you do not want more government

#146 Nemesis on 11.04.13 at 6:23 pm

@Ralph/#130…

….”licensing requirements are slim”…

That was so harsh! HomeSchooling was never more arduous, you know…

Just check out this grueling course load:

https://secure.sauder.ubc.ca/re_licensing/bookstoreWPG/toc/toc_rets.cfm

I’ll bet it would take years to properly come to grips with all of that stuff… Oh, wait…

SixWeeks?

According to “TheSchoolOfFred”, AbsoluteMastery can be achieved in as little as six weeks! Indeed, Fred is so confident in his program that he’ll guarantee you a pass – or cheerfully refund your tuition! See:

http://www.realtycourse.ca/getlicensed

[NoteToSelf: Hmmm?… decisions, decisions, decisions… Study with “Fred” or enroll at UBC’s Sauder School of Business, Robert Lee Graduate School – hey, wait just a darn minute – why did they name their graduate school after a Confederate General? Aren’t SlaveHolding PlantationOwners and their apologists a tad ‘retro’ these days?… Nah, couldn’t be the same guy. Probably just a typo.]

#147 Mister Obvious on 11.04.13 at 6:40 pm

#135 arealtor

“So they can recommend you move all your money into Fund “A” under the guise that its a better investment for you…meanwhile, he is putting your money there because that fund happens to pay the highest commission! Where is the outcry about that profession?? – I know, wrong blog…”
———————

No! Absolutely correct blog! Has Garth not said it again and again that fee based advisors without vested interest in specific products are the ONLY way to go?

The commission-based purveyor of mutual funds, the Orange Guy and [email protected] are to be avoided at all costs.

You must be quite late to the party.

#148 jess on 11.04.13 at 6:42 pm

“mathematics itself is a vehicle for control fraud”

http://mathbabe.org/2013/02/28/is-mathematics-a-vehicle-for-control-fraud/

http://mathbabe.org/2013/11/04/how-do-we-fix-libor/

#149 Shawn on 11.04.13 at 6:59 pm

ICAHN FUNDS MAKES DOLLARS

See number 144, that is impressive, most impressive.

When someone that famous and rich makes that much money from investing and invites you to join him, it’s worth considering. Too bad we did not take a look a yer ago…

#150 Arealtor on 11.04.13 at 7:07 pm

Minime, LMFAO I couldn’t give a rats ass how you feel about my profession. The only thing I care about is how my clients feel about me and the service that I provide.
The only thing that would make you happy is the destruction of this industry as a means for 10’s of thousands of us to earn a living.
If you want to throw all agents under the bus because we ultimately elect those who ‘manipulate’ the numbers then so be it….because apart from that, none of us pay much attention to these numbers-we are too busy helping clients buy and sell their homes.

You have quite the nerve to offer up your $0.02 as to why someone chooses a particular path in life. Yes, I went to university and shortly afterward got into RE. You are either very young and naive or you are a ignorant A**H**E or both.
Why do these numbers, scrubbed or not, bother you so much?? What would a bufoon like you have done differently with “accurate” stats? Do you actually think that out stats are what is governing the overall economy? House prices have increased for a plethora of reasons-low interest rates, inflation, demand, foreign investment etc etc…crawl out from under your rock and look around…what hasn’t increased cost? Have you noticed the price of gas???oh right, you probably don’t own a car. I’m sure skateboards are more expensive too.
History repeats itself. If you are suggesting that the economy’s overall health and well being hinges on real estate stats then either we are all doomed or you are just a moron.
As far as a Monopoly goes, our membership is who funded and built the mls system and you want us to just turn it over to you??? We have every right to control OUR system. Do you really think real estate is the only entity that hordes and/or charges for information? WAKE UP!

You still haven’t told me what you do for a living…I guess waiting by the mailbox for your govt chq to arrive isn’t worth bragging about.

Get a life jackass and stop blaming others for your shortcomings.

#151 arealtor on 11.04.13 at 7:49 pm

#147 Mister Obvious

lol, yes…i was late to the party.

#145 Rob Ford’s love child

“a happy customer doesnt want to move”….are you for real?? People move for all sorts of reasons…job, divorce, up sizing (ever heard of procreation?), down sizing on and on …the average number of years for a move is . So you are saying its because the evil real estate agent sold them….wait, forced them into a house they didnt want? OMG, what a riot some of the comments on here!

but yes, you are right about how individual agents are evaluated….there is no way to measure individual customer satisfaction so yes, $$ or volume is used.
But better than any rating or award, the best regulator of the “best” agents is repeat business-LIKE ANY OTHER SALES JOB i might add.
I work strictly off of repeat business and referral. As do many, many other agents….would that be possible if customer service were not important??

#152 Snowboid on 11.04.13 at 7:52 pm

#129 arealtor on 11.04.13 at 3:39 pm…

Oh great, DA is back – or a clone?

#153 arealtor on 11.04.13 at 8:07 pm

minime wrote
“This statement here speaks volumes. Just a gigantic sample of egoism and moral standards. If he/she does not use them he/she does not care.
If you are his/her client you will be fine…. otherwise may you rot in hell, I am not going to do anything for fixing this.
Carefully he/she is avoiding the issue by not saying if the numbers are right or wrong or if the whole situation is OK
The message is clear: pay me and you will be fine.”

“Ego” lol….you dont know me…you have no idea what kind of person i am….having a “ego” is the last word ppl who know me would use to describe me.
Buddy, i have no idea if those numbers are right or wrong…im not carefully skirting the issue….you think i sit in my office verifying if the data is correct or being presented correctly?
I will really simplify this for your sake…in my day to day activities those numbers mean SQUAT to me. When Joe Seller calls me to list his house he needs to know what his home is worth TODAY not how the market did last year vs this year….its irrelevant. Conversely, when a buyer enlists my services its my job to find out what similar homes in the location sold for so that he does not overpay.

you dont need to hire me to be privy to this information….there are plenty of real estate companies that will give you bare bones service for a flat fee. remember the ruling by the competition bureau not too long ago…?

you are so sour …. you have obviously been wronged by one of my peers….should have interviewed more agents. Give me a call next time….ill take good care of you. Ill also teach you about life….

#154 Form Man on 11.04.13 at 8:20 pm

#152 Snowboid

sure does sound like DA………..

#155 MiniMe on 11.04.13 at 8:41 pm

@realtor: OK, you are one more pest around here. I don’t have the time to listen to your B$, neither the time to help you to focus on a conversation. Good bye and good luck.

PS: run that poll that I suggested you and call what you want the other 30 mil people who hate to see how guys like you make easy money while they work a lot for every buck they earn.

The depths of your fantastic intellect have been fully revealed by your replies here. Unable to focus on the points brought up by your interlocutors and repeating your RE mantras like a broken record.

FYI, you idiot, there is buyers who would love to know where the market is going without having to sign an agreement with a “honest” guy like you. This is why the public needs data. Clean data, raw data.

#156 DM in C on 11.04.13 at 9:44 pm

FormMan and Snowboid:

If it smells like a fish, and looks like a fish…….

Minime, stop feeding the troll.

#157 arealtor on 11.05.13 at 11:54 am

yes it does smell like fish…

Haters…all of you. Pure jealousy under the guise of being “duped” by, for most, irrelevant statistics-can anyone smell the red herring in here? it reaks …..