Hit & run

stop

Betty is distraught. As I sat to write this post she messaged me from Surrey.

“My parents are putting in another offer tonight in less than 4hrs and please help me convince them NOT to buy! If you could not reply in time, I would really, greatly appreciate if you could reply (in simple language, as my parent’s english is not that good) so I can talk and convince them to STOP buying ……… now I just pray my father won’t submit another offer tonight….”

Here’s the story: they live in a suburban Van condo, falling in value (of course). “Scared by how the condo has gone down,” says Betty, “they are convinced a house is the way to invest and not lose value like our condo has (total face palm).” So they plan to bail from that place, and have offered on a 2,500-foot, two-storey suburban 1980s special north of the Fraser Highway. List price: $648,000. Hours ago the seller signed it back with a counter of $640,000.

This house, too, is blowing up. After spending $40,000 on renovations including a new rental suite over the last year, the owner’s taking a big hit. “My parents only see this as a steal of opportunity instead of sign that housing market is coming down,” says Betty. “Their argument is that they’ll live there for 15 years, sell it and make profit or at least live there for free.”

Let’s hope so, because they’ll have no money. Total savings amount to $200,000, which goes for the downpayment. Little equity will come out of the mortgaged condo when it sells. No TFSAs or RRSPs. Combined income, $90,000. The only way they’ll carry the house is with the cash from the rental suite. What happens when they retire? No idea.

Well, Betty, when I walked into the BNN television studio on Monday I should have had your folks in mind. The issue was how realtors and their cartels massage numbers to come up with one consistent message: buy. For months this pathetic blog has yammered away about phantom, multiple listings, quietly-revised monthly stats, presales counted as resales, private sales used to plump MLS data and the greatest misleader of all, the HPI Frankenumber – designed to mask market trends, and make ya feel good.

The manipulation now seems so widespread and indefensible (CREA has admitted to multiple listings of houses), that it calls into question the accuracy of every monthly report from every board. Nobody audits these numbers. There’s no regulatory oversight. They are prepared by salaried employees of the realtor organizations themselves, where every single person has a monetary stake in putting the best face on market conditions.

Bryan knows something about this. “At one point in my career I was involved with the re-write and re-design of the National Home Price Survey that was done monthly by Royal LePage,” he wrote me, after watching the BNN clip.

“The short of it is that I agree with your assessment. The data collection methodology was sketchy at best and there was a section that relied heavily on the “opinion” of the branch manager completing the survey, dealing with future prices. The survey, especially the future price part, was used as a sales tool to pressure people into listing the property for more than it might have been worth, and was instrumental in getting multiple offers on properties.”

In Winnipeg, David Gurvey was also watching. But I think he hates me. “I am not really sure you understand the fundamentals of what moves the real estate market.  I am also not sure why you need to attack various data collectors and their reports.  In any event, I provide research and analysis for some of Western Canada’s largest apartment owners on this type of matter. Perhaps this is a service you should engage unless your points of view are simply to gain TV exposure which in that case, KUDOS to you as you do this very well.  I have always wanted to be on BNN myself.”

So what are the fundamentals moving real estate? Simple. Supply and demand.  Both are massively impacted by what people perceive the market is doing, and will do in the future. When realtor experts and the media say sales are soaring and prices are hot, buyers scramble to get in before prices rise while sellers ask for top dollar. When the experts proclaim prices are taking a break, creating a buyer’s market and unbridled opportunity, Betty’s poor parents forget their losses and reach for new ones.

Because in the realtors’ world, it’s always an ace time to buy. And they have stats to prove it!

Betty, your close-to-retirement parents should not be erasing their precious savings while taking on debt they may never repay, at rates which can only rise in the years ahead. The house will bloat their monthly costs and give them a tenant to worry about. After their jobs finish what they’ll need more than anything is income, which means growing their liquid assets, especially within the TFSAs, to help provide a monthly stream of cash.

And haven’t they learned the lesson yet? Hard to believe, but real estate doesn’t always go up. It can fall just as easily – like now in Surrey and great swaths of the Lower Mainland. Their condo tanked. This house has already robbed the current owner. Why should the experience suddenly reverse? Because CREA and the Vancouver Board say sales are charging ahead?

Betty, tell them this. You’re being misled. By folks whose vested interest is to sell you an asset, then move on. There’s no responsibility for your welfare. And yet this single act has the power to decimate your financial future.

Don’t sign tonight. The house will be there tomorrow. And next month, too. Owned by a guy who once thought as you, and now desperately seeks a greater fool.

154 comments ↓

#1 Smoking Man on 10.28.13 at 9:12 pm

Bonds Away

Back in Sept when I called Batman on Bond yields, most newbie’s on here thought I was nuts, the vet’s knowing how lucky I have always been with my calls took notice. Some made bets.

Today out having a smoke I met someone on Wellington and York who some how recognized me, I was thinking via descriptions, poorly doctored pic’s on my blog, picked me out at Seneca, or just a damn good guess.

His cufflinks were worth more than my truck.

He said Smoking Man thanks and keep up the good work on GF, We loaded up on bonds on Batman, then you called it same day, that was awesome. Thanks, a Zillion….Offered his hand. “Zillion” must be a fan knows the lingo. “ My ass, he bought them before my post, Turner Nation Remembers”

I played dumb, reached for my smokes and offered him one. He said nice try. I remember you from the bar at the Gartho Show. I was one of the cowards in the bar afraid to say Hi.

I shock his hand, we shot the shit, he even had a smoke and he don’t smoke, we exchanged business cards and I have an open invitation to the nudy bar on his dime. he’s just been promoted, now a big wig at one of the big five, even hinted at a position working for them in the groovy business. “Why do you want be a code monkey there”?
Good point, Even if I joined again, the thing I ran away from before I would never buy cufflinks like that, what a waist of money.

For the rest of you, this is what you missed out on.

Bonds Away!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/

I have obviously developed Stockholm syndrome, wanting you suffering pathetic dogs to get a break with a nice correction. I really do. Especially for LaughingCon

But today F saying BOC hands tied on rate spikes, He’s not doing crap to stop RE prices, and MSM will shortly be announcing big fixed rate mortgage cuts.

Ah man……….I can’t help you guys in that department. Just bet with me is the best I can offer. Guess what happens to stock markets when Bonds are horded. Watch and learn.

PS Garth nice job on BNN

#2 Retired Boomer - WI on 10.28.13 at 9:15 pm

Money that’s what I want…

Not houses being gassed today all over. Not credit being offered to all the unworthy at usurious rates.

Gimme the paper, gold or silver !! Some of it will have value tomorrow.

#3 SOCIALIST CONservatives got to go on 10.28.13 at 9:17 pm

These CONservative socialist who hate free markets need to go. They just spent $600,000,000,000.00 on sub-prime mortgages . COnservatives are on their way to BANKRUPT Canada and Canadians.

#4 sheane wallace on 10.28.13 at 9:19 pm

The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Factoring the coming great inflation I am changing my view on the housing market: For your own sake don’t sell your properties.

Who cares that the homes would decline from 2 to 1.5 millions 5 years from now?

Yes it might be a crash but is it not better to buy now at 800 k? Who cares that currencies would be destroyed?
It is a predicament.

Extraordinary times require extraordinary measures and thinking and I am starting to think that some people like Smoking Man are geniuses.

As they account for people’s stupidity. These are not rational times.

#5 Realtors are worried on 10.28.13 at 9:20 pm

Look at smokingman waiting topost and posting all day and night trying to spin spin spin and find more suckers into this housing Ponzi scheme. Realtors are financially hurting bad. Why else would they spend day and night on greaterfool if the housing market was well?

#6 Ariya on 10.28.13 at 9:20 pm

Canada has the largest construction sector in the world relative to the size of it’s economy (according to the IMF). Also it looks it’s a bubble which is going to pop as the housing correction set’s in.

#7 Smoking Woman on 10.28.13 at 9:22 pm

Smoking Man – what kind of fixed rates do you expect to see in the foreseeable future for 3-5year mortgages? You see the BoC lowering prime?

#8 John on 10.28.13 at 9:22 pm

Just found a duplicate listing http://goo.gl/FUQiid with $15 000 difference in price.. not bad. No sane people should trust CREA numbers. Somebody should call for a public audit of the provided statistics.

#9 KommyKim on 10.28.13 at 9:24 pm

Look! Matchboxes in the sky! A home so small your Roomba can clean the whole thing without recharging!

http://janion2013.com/affordability.html

#10 Godth on 10.28.13 at 9:24 pm

Garth, you keep writing this blog day after day with some underlying notion that people want to be informed and furthermore be responsible. Nobody wants these things Garth, not govt’s, not banks, not corporations, not the great unwashed; it’s so last century.
We’re in the digital age now, it’s all virtual. Nothing means anything except the meaning we give to it, we define and redefine reality according to our whims. Calm down, it will be OK. We’ll just change a few definitions and presto an whole new reality. Infinity now..

#11 I hate realtors on 10.28.13 at 9:27 pm

The conservative government seems to support the fraud that seems to be going on in the RE industry. It seems that the conservative government supports the RE industry with whatever they do. Can we really afford the $600B + dollars in liar loans that the conservative have given away?

#12 not 1st on 10.28.13 at 9:27 pm

Garth, here is a little secret about people who are new to Canada which this couple probably is.

The have never witnesses a real recession and do not know what one looks like or the fundamentals around one. On top of that, many foreign cultures actually trust luck more than rational thought.

This is why that segment of the population keeps buying. Somebody needs to broadcast some old news clips from Calgary circa 1980 or Toronto circa 1990.

#13 Toronto_CA on 10.28.13 at 9:30 pm

Blog dogs will set their PVRs for this:

http://www.cbc.ca/doczone/episodes/the-condo-game

“Toronto is at a tipping point. And the city’s condo story is a cautionary tale for all Canadians and their communities.”

#14 Paul on 10.28.13 at 9:31 pm

11 I hate realtors on 10.28.13 at 9:27 pm
The conservative government seems to support the fraud that seems to be going on in the RE industry. It seems that the conservative government supports the RE industry with whatever they do. Can we really afford the $600B + dollars in liar loans that the conservative have given away?
.*******************************************
Sounds like you missed the boat, toot, toot

#15 Scalgary on 10.28.13 at 9:33 pm

Garth,

Are there video clippings of your BNN interview ?

Keep up the great work…

#16 Smoking Man on 10.28.13 at 9:33 pm

#7 Smoking Woman on 10.28.13 at 9:22 pm
Smoking Man – what kind of fixed rates do you expect to see in the foreseeable future for 3-5year mortgages? You see the BoC lowering prime?
……………………………..

I will you know tomorrow, I got to lie down, reading laughingcon’s post #5 put me into a hyper laughing session I dis lodged a gallbladder stone. pain…..

#17 LH on 10.28.13 at 9:37 pm

the “good life”

In the second decade of the 21st century, both the global wealthy and the millenials agree on one thing:
they want to live in walkable urban environments, close to all amenities (groceries, shops, jobs) and public transportation (subway or rail best) in a large english-speaking city (sorry Montreal), and in a safe and rich country. The immigration policy of this country should be conducive to easy access for wealthy and/or well-educated foreigners, and bonus points if their family back home can tag along.

There are only a few cities in the world that meet the above criteria, and SFH’s in the city core cost more than Toronto on all of them.

New York (Manhattan)
London, UK
Sydney
Melbourne
Singapore
Hong Kong
Toronto
Vancouver
San Francisco
Washington, DC

And within Toronto, the number of walkable neighborhoods close to subway is similarly small.
Is there any surprise that urban houses south of Dupont, West of Yonge, around or east of Trinity Bellwoods: is insanely bid? Like the neighborhood of Surry Hills in Sydney, supply/demand trumps common sense every time.

My prediction: Within 10-20 years, houses near Queen West will be more expensive than Forest Hill or Lawrence Park. Just as Spring St (Soho) is now more expensive than the Carnegie Hill (Upper East Side). Supply and demand, law of the jungle, get used to it!

LH

#18 X on 10.28.13 at 9:38 pm

Funny how most people have most of their net worth in real estate which has no regulatory oversight.

Yet they think a balanced equity portfolio is too risky…

#19 NoName on 10.28.13 at 9:39 pm

Betty, tell them Halloween is around corner.

http://goo.gl/nKi24H

#20 Smoking Man on 10.28.13 at 9:42 pm

#15 Scalgary on 10.28.13 at 9:33 pm
Garth,

Are there video clippings of your BNN interview ?

Keep up the great work…

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip1032334

#21 Dimitri Tishchenko on 10.28.13 at 9:43 pm

Video of Garth on BNN

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2013/10/28/Accuracy-of-Canadas-housing-data-under-scrutiny.aspx

#22 Drill Baby Drill on 10.28.13 at 9:45 pm

Garth I viewed your BNN interview and please keep up the good fight. It is very important that we as Canadians truly understand the ins and outs of the real estate market. I remember my high school years whereby we were never taught basic bookeeping as in personal budgeting. I learned this the hard way by living on my own. However with real estate which of course was not taught to my children in high school it is crucial that people like yourself and my fellow bloggers keep hammering away at the industry due simply to the fact that it takes such a large % of our income. Our children will need to have the protection of a reasonable level of industry regulation and common education on the pitfalls of home ownership.

#23 I'm stupid on 10.28.13 at 9:45 pm

The problem is that people don’t buy the actual price of the home. They buy the payments. If a greater fool can afford 2k a month that’s what they buy. They don’t care about the price. That’s why it’s been so easy for people to fall into the debt trap. When a young couple puts in an offer and the realtor says to increase the offer and sells it with the increase in monthly payments it’s easy to get carried away. 100k is around $500 a month.

I bought a car for my mother this week. The dealer was shocked when I didn’t want to finance or lease the vehicle. He tried so hard to sell the finance (rate was under 1%). I hate debt and monthly payments, they are like prisons. I know I could have invested the money etc. etc. but you never know when your circumstances change and if you can’t adjust because of debt obligations your screwed. Just saying no debt is good debt period.

#24 Gary M on 10.28.13 at 9:45 pm

“You’re being misled. By folks whose vested interest is to sell you an asset”

Just like when commission-takers tell you to go long financial assets, right Garth?

Of course you should not buy financial assets from anyone who is paid a commission to sell them. — Garth

#25 bond bust on 10.28.13 at 9:46 pm

10 yr yield at massive support. Soon it will turn up and test 3 again. Usually it takes three tries to break it. This will be second time.
Be patient, RE bears. This is once in life time drama.

#26 not 1st on 10.28.13 at 9:47 pm

Garth is so nice and soft spoken on BNN. Why does he get so snarky on the blog?

#27 Nemesis on 10.28.13 at 9:47 pm

@Ralph/#108PriorThread

“The woods are lovely, dark and deep, and I’m sure riding a horse through them would provide contemplative time for the soul. But I’ve promises to keep before I sleep, so I’ll take the train.” – Ralph

That many literary allusions packed into one para… truly deserve an EasterEgg…

Here ya go:

http://tinyurl.com/k7xbgrj

That would be the King ‘O The SimalkameenPonies… HoldingCourt in a forest glade not far from the Cathedral ProtectedArea on what was once the RightOfWay of a FarMightier IronHorse…. albeit, now sadly obsolescent… Forgotten.

Twas happenstance we encountered one another. Or was it? DueRespects were exchanged… and not a little wariness.

As it happened, I had the UpperHand – HM was in desperate need of favour… having somehow contrived to lodge a PricklyPearCactus in his lips.

Upon my removing it… He stamped his right fore-hoof three times in thanks… then whinnied… Snout SouthWard pointed… and galloped away*.

AllegoricalBonus’Zen’: AllenTown/Joel

…”But the restlessness was handed down
And it’s getting very hard to stay

Well we’re waiting here in Allentown
For the Pennsylvania we never found
For the promises our teachers gave
If we worked hard
If we behaved
So the graduations hang on the wall
But they never really helped us at all
No they never taught us what was real
Iron and coke
And chromium steel
And we’re waiting here in Allentown

But they’ve taken all the coal from the ground
And the union people crawled away

Every child had a pretty good shot
To get at least as far as their old man got
But something happened on the way to that place
They threw an American flag in our face”…

http://youtu.be/BHnJp0oyOxs

[*As shall Nemesis OneDay. That was an original – ByTheWay – and a TrueStory… in case you were wondering, RC. TeeHee! – I’ll bet SM was smirking @ Joel’s lyric.]

#28 Squidly77 on 10.28.13 at 9:50 pm

I must say that I am very pleased that the real estate cartels are finally being widely and very publicly exposed for what they are. It’s shameful what they have done and continue to do to joe six pack average Canadian.

Never mind that various realtors are desperately coming to the cartels defence claiming this and that. If the cartels need defending, let them do so, all they have to do is open their books to the general public that they sell to.

After all, what are they hiding?

#29 Cory on 10.28.13 at 9:57 pm

#11 – I agree. The govt is supporting the whole charade and there is no will to stop it. It will bode well for them in the next fed election.

I saw the BNN interview today. At least BNN is finally showing the flip side of the coin instead of the long line of real estate pumpers such as the guy from REIN….can’t stand him and his “nice little dividend” comments about how easy it is to rent your property and scoop a nice yield.

#30 FATHER on 10.28.13 at 9:58 pm

#26
I agree, Garth is super polite and answers all the questions on BNN, but here it’s like he is going to bite our heads off. LOL.

#31 Ralph Cramdown on 10.28.13 at 9:58 pm

#4 sheane wallace — “The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. […] Factoring the coming great inflation […] Extraordinary times require extraordinary measures […] These are not rational times.”

This sort of woe is me, this time it’s different BS might have been acceptable in the fall of 2008. You’ve had five years to figure out what’s going on and trade accordingly. “Coming great inflation” is a classic cop-out. There’s ALWAYS a loony fringe predicting currency collapse is right around the corner. Publicly admitting you’ve fallen for it is the economic equivalent of shaving your head, donning a saffron robe and running away with the Hare Krishnas

#32 Zoe on 10.28.13 at 10:00 pm

What’s your outlook for cottage country and the Gulf Islands markets? My folks have been trying to move a property that’s lost at least 30% of its value and has been on the market for four years on and off. Realtor is saying that offers $50k – $70k under asking are often accepted for places above the mid-3s. When’s the time to buy in that market? Will it go any lower?

#33 TheCatFoodLady on 10.28.13 at 10:00 pm

Toronto_Ca – thanks for the heads up – already have that on my calender.

Wonder which ‘condo kings’ will participate?

#34 Musty Basement Dweller on 10.28.13 at 10:01 pm

Very proud of the work you are doing Garth. Someone needs to do it badly, and I have thought that for many years.

This Musty Basement Dweller is getting teary eyed and it ain’t the mold or dampness this time.

Rock on.

#35 David Lee on 10.28.13 at 10:04 pm

Garth,

Watched both your spot on BNN and Gregory Klump’s spot:

When trying to judge a debate or between two sides of a story, it’s always telling to watch for “argumentum ad hominem” (whether actual or on the verge of).

If I was totally unaware of the real estate/affordability issue in Canada and if I were to watch these two interviews to try form an opinion, I would see Mr. Turner keeping his cool with a very cogent delivery, while I would see Mr. Klump ridiculing Mr. Turner.

I think Mr. Klump dug the hole just a little deeper today for the CREA and the industry on the whole.

Nice work, Mr. Turner.

#36 Freedom First on 10.28.13 at 10:04 pm

Nicely put Garth! I hope the parents make the right decision. This story is also another great reminder to me on not just how dangerous the sharks in the ocean are, but how dangerous personal financial idiocy is to oneself in any monetary transaction in a world with many different and dangerous greedy/hungry/unethical sharks.

Ignorance is not bliss, it is super expensive. I agree with Garth and what he writes/teaches to be sound financial principles. Having all of ones money in “ANY” 1 asset is foolish and an act of insanity. There is no exception.

#37 will on 10.28.13 at 10:08 pm

Can someone provide the link to the bnn video? I just went there but I don’t see the video.

#38 jordy on 10.28.13 at 10:13 pm

Nice job on BNN this morning Garth. I particularly enjoyed the spanking you give them for ignoring the entire issue of real estate over exposure and under regulation. Hey, how about a new show? Garth’s call, right after Berman’s call.

#39 Smoking Man on 10.28.13 at 10:30 pm

#37 will on 10.28.13 at 10:08 pm

Can someone provide the link to the bnn video? I just went there but I don’t see the video.

……..

Been like 10 links up above Will. Will you open your eyes

#40 Sydneysider on 10.28.13 at 10:36 pm

#17 LH

If public transportation is part of the good life, you can cross Sydney off your list.

#41 Tripp on 10.28.13 at 10:37 pm

#12 not 1st on 10.28.13 at 9:27 pm

“Garth, here is a little secret about people who are new to Canada…They have never witnesses a real recession…”

This is called ignorance.

However, as demonstrated on this blog numerous times, the vast majority of the buyers are raised and educated in Canada, and probably have experienced a real recession or heard about one from their family. In spite of that, they continue to bid their imaginary wealth and their children’s future for wood-chip palaces that will need a major renovation every fifteen years.

How would you call this?

#42 Cranky on 10.28.13 at 10:41 pm

Here’s a little story about my old ‘hood in the UK about the impact of the housing boom on one street.

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/oct/27/albion-drive-revisited-property-divide

After slowing of prices after 2008, prices are soaring again and Mark Carney is throwing fuel on the fire.

As Garth has always told us, this story tells how all markets are local.

#43 Smoking Hot on 10.28.13 at 10:42 pm

How intimately linked the job and housing markets remain.

A bad housing market limit’s residents’ ability to relocate to greener employment pastures, anchoring them to a stalled economic climate.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/worst-job-markets-u-131939364.html

#44 Matt on 10.28.13 at 10:45 pm

Would everyone Like, Share, etc this video to spread the word? People need a dose of reality.

#45 Don on 10.28.13 at 10:51 pm

Ralphie I am afraid the bears will be proven right and I mean economic bears not just real estate bears. that which is unsustainable will not be sustained. Instead of currency collapse think of an engineer who condemns a bridge. If it does not collapse for 5 yrs does it mean he was wrong for 4 yrs. Also realize some of us do think in terms of morality with this issue

#46 Obvious Truth on 10.28.13 at 10:54 pm

Great blog tonight. Garth has done it. The conversation has changed.

Lots of bond and inflation talk. This will be the battleground.

On one hand there is no demand for money at rates any higher than they are presently. Those who recently got blown out don’t want to buy and have yields go up when the fed warns again. They see bins as risky. Then there are investors who just won’t buy bonds and view dividend stocks as an alternative. Witness the staples comeback. The famed great rotation may be upon us!

Feds in charge again so we could all be winners for a while. Theyll soak up the supply for now.

#47 Spectacle on 10.28.13 at 10:58 pm

Thank You Garth

Not only addictive, but seems to me this ….blog is getting better in waves!

Hit & Run is a good example of a real estate transaction !

Friendly unsolicited advice to Zoe # 32, bail, run, get out as soon as possible. Recreational dives quicker and lower than city real estate. You’ve just advised us of that fact yourself. Don’t step into the traffic….

For eg. Watch whistler real estate, it’s called the back hole by developers for years now! Rent form$80 a night.

#48 Ralph Cramdown on 10.28.13 at 10:59 pm

#17 LH — “In the second decade of the 21st century, both the global wealthy and the millenials agree on one thing:”

That LH is full of crap? If you want to know what (and where) actually matters to global high net worth individuals, do some research.
http://my.knightfrank.com/research-reports/the-wealth-report.aspx

#49 Lurker on 10.28.13 at 11:01 pm

Did you guys see this?:
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/luxury-home-show-targets-asian-buyers-1.1516085

#50 Spectacle on 10.28.13 at 11:01 pm

Oops,

I meant to say whistler is called the “black hole” of recreational realty by developers. Bags of money can disappear into the dirt in places like that. Think Matchu Pichu!

#51 Country Girl on 10.28.13 at 11:11 pm

Garth,
Thank you for exposing the reliability issues with CREA stats.

Do you know if any other country allows real estate agents to conduct bidding wars/auctions such as those in Canada? A low, false asking price is listed (not the true, acceptable-to-seller asking price) and stupid people blindly make offers without knowing how much others have bid. In a traditional real estate auction process, the seller’s reserved bid is kept secret (the seller must accept this amount if highest bid) and bidders know the amount of all other bids. The winning bid and next highest bid are likely to be fairly close in $ amount (and a good reflection of the property’s market value) unlike a bidding war where it seems the winning bid could be drastically higher than all others. The high selling price in a bidding war doesn’t reflect the actual market value of the property as much as the stupidity level (or niavety) of the buyer.

#52 Joe from Vancouver on 10.28.13 at 11:14 pm

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2013/10/28/Accuracy-of-Canadas-housing-data-under-scrutiny.aspx

Nice job Garth. Even an annual independent audit done on el cartel numbers would be an improvement from number massaging going on now.
Surrey BC sucks by the way. BC government and TansLink started process of tolling bridges a few years ago…..in few years they all will be “pay per use” to balance the traffic since most folks drive around them stressing other free bridges. It may take you over $5 per day just to get home from work in your car. That alone will reduce the RE prices in Surrey, Delta or Richmond. This is Lower Mainland,bridges connect everybody to everything. If they toll all bridges it will be time to move out of town permanently. There is a lot of places in BC that are cool.

#53 Nemesis on 10.28.13 at 11:15 pm

BonusBonusZen… [with thanks to AlexColville]:

http://tinyurl.com/phreyjt

[NoteToGT: Alex called it, “Horse & Train”… I would have called it, “History”]…

#54 Nick_L on 10.28.13 at 11:24 pm

Garth, Dianne Buckner mentioned your name tonight, you lucky man you. Then she interviewed some guy named Klump from CREA. You might want to get on that (the show, not Dianne..)

http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/TV+Shows/Lang+%26+O%27Leary+Exchange/ID/2414755355/

#55 Inglorious Investor on 10.28.13 at 11:24 pm

Kudos on your BNN interview today, Mr. Turner. Nicely done. You may just be blowing this issue wide open to the benefit of all Canadians. And you look good, too.

#56 Cici on 10.28.13 at 11:26 pm

#37 will

If the links aren’t loading for you right away, simply reload the page and wait. It should work after one or two refreshes.

#57 Tiger on 10.28.13 at 11:28 pm

Paul on 14# just keep stump humping, and droppin your realatards cards along they way, you have a way with people! Then again tylonal could use you!! for advertising!

#58 Musty Basement Dweller on 10.28.13 at 11:30 pm

Just watched the BNN video. Wow Garth you are good. Very articulate and clear simple message. Nice.

#59 Musty Basement Dweller on 10.28.13 at 11:34 pm

#26 not 1st on 10.28.13 at 9:47 pm
Garth is so nice and soft spoken on BNN. Why does he get so snarky on the blog?
=========================
Lol. Garth should probably be sainted or something for enduring the massive amount of twisted idiocy of some of the writers. My theory is the snarkyness is his outlet/ therapy for that.

#60 NotAGreaterFool on 10.28.13 at 11:35 pm

Garth – Klump says hello!

http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/Business/ID/2414755355/

#61 Tiger on 10.28.13 at 11:42 pm

32# Zoe ! Do you not read this blog , don’t wast his time!!!

#62 takla on 10.28.13 at 11:46 pm

So im in the coffee shop this morning and the guy next to me says to his buddy “hey man you better get some coin into the stock market soon our your risking being priced out forever”had to laugh,,,isn’t that the line the realestate agents always use…lol

#63 Smoking Hot on 10.28.13 at 11:52 pm

Just watched the BNN video… very well done.

One man’s prick bursts the Canadian Housing Bubble

Would that be a headline!

#64 Shawn on 10.28.13 at 11:52 pm

CREA STATS

Can anyone guess what has been the most annoying thing about CREA stats and their real estate price predictions?

(Yeah, that’s right, exactly, you got it….)

#65 [email protected] on 10.28.13 at 11:57 pm

Two FYIs :
1. BNN link is http://www.bnn.ca/News/2013/10/28/Accuracy-of-Canadas-housing-data-under-scrutiny.aspx
2. Who’s this researcher David Gurvey? Oh, he converts apartments into condos? http://www.winnipegjewishreview.com/article_detail.cfm?id=655&sec=6

#66 Tiger on 10.29.13 at 12:00 am

Zoe maybe come to my. Place tonight, I can teach you that stuff

#67 Ralph Cramdown on 10.29.13 at 12:06 am

#45 Don — “that which is unsustainable will not be sustained. Instead of currency collapse think of an engineer who condemns a bridge. “

I don’t need bogus analogies. A cursory glance at Amazon
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_ss_i_0_9?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=%22dollar+crisis%22
shows predictions of a dollar crisis in every decade since the 1940s. That isn’t too early, it’s just plain wrong. It is apparent that the models used by those predicting recent high inflation and interest rates and flight from the currency and bond markets have been wrong in Japan and wrong in the USA. I’m certainly not going to wait another ten years trading a busted model to see if it improves.

Morality? An entirely different thing. I’ve got opinions, but I must separate what I think fiscal and monetary policy OUGHT to be from what I think it likely WILL be.

A bet on inflation is a bet that fiscal and monetary authorities will throw pensioners, bondholders and the rich under the bus in favour of working age middle class homeowners and the indebted. Fat chance. Didn’t you hear Republicans saying that, if push came to shove, surely Treasury could keep paying bondholders but not pay Social Security recipients?

#68 Popeye the Sailer on 10.29.13 at 12:11 am

I feel sick for her. I hope her parents take her advicewith Garths help.

#69 TakingResponsibility on 10.29.13 at 12:27 am

Great Interview, Garth!

The Frankenumber IS Fraud – not just unethical behavior but knowing Criminal behavior.

#70 Brad on 10.29.13 at 12:32 am

Good job on exposing CREA and the frauds they are Garth.

#71 jim on 10.29.13 at 12:35 am

#17 LH on 10.28.13 at 9:37 pm

New York (Manhattan)
London, UK
Sydney
Melbourne
Singapore
Hong Kong
Toronto
Vancouver
San Francisco
Washington, DC

————-

You are killing me here. I’m dying of laughter.

Do you have any idea what wages are like in the non-Canadian cities on that list?

Hong Kong? High salaries, low taxes.
Silicon Valley? High salaries, moderate taxes.
Washington DC? Just usurped Silicon Valley for richest postal codes in the US. Lots of parasites with fat wallets.
San Francisco? New York? Singapore?

Price/income ratios in all of those cities are far better than Vancouver and Toronto, as venues like the Economist have pointed out time after time. Even here in Silicon Valley, homes are far more affordable, because prices are lower and incomes are way higher than Toronto or Vancouver. Melbourne may be the exception, but Australia’s market is deflating.

#72 Infused with Opiates on 10.29.13 at 12:44 am

13 TO CA – thanks! Hmmm, darn PVR doesnt go that far ahead…..I’ll just program to record all episodes….

#73 prairie person on 10.29.13 at 1:11 am

A couple bought a house in our neighbourhood a year ago. With their eyes shut. Thought they could get repairs done for 5,000.00, other upgrades for 2,000.00. My builder doing upgrades checked the job out and said minimum 100,000.00, maybe more when we rip stuff out. Who knows what we will find. Some of these things have to be done. No choice. Sewer line, for example.That wasn’t included in the 100k. People buy the max they can afford, are unrealistic about labour, lumber, hardware. With little down, they’ve got hardly any equity in the house. The bank isn’t likely to front more money because in our area assessments have dropped for three years.

#74 Broadway skytrain on 10.29.13 at 1:34 am

44 Matt on 10.28.13 at 10:45 pm
Would everyone Like, Share, etc this video to spread the word? People need a dose of reality.
……..……………
Wrong target market.
I,m pretty sure the ‘liking’ and twitting is for following kim kardishian and funny cats. Oh and getting laid too, i suppose.

Re duffy , he was just gaming the system to line his pockets with taxpayer cash . This is not only condoned but obligated by the parasitic class in ottawa. Harper makes a clean sweep, because he can, all 3are gone.

#75 Surrey on 10.29.13 at 1:40 am

Surrey prices are not down. Lot prices today are at record highs. Going for $500,000 now for a standard lot.

Please tell it like it is.

#76 Surrey on 10.29.13 at 2:19 am

LH post #17

Best post tonite
!

#77 Tom from Mississauga on 10.29.13 at 2:21 am

When will you do a Market Call on BNN?

#78 No Debt on 10.29.13 at 2:38 am

Another Greater Fool !

Over the past few months I’ve posted a couple of times to mention the dump next door and how the sale was going, or not. Originally listed early July for $169k, it finally sold mid September for the reduced asking of $145k. No idea what the actual sale price was.

I met the new owners the other night. Lo and behold, they are going to be landlords ! Best of all, they are going to be sure they find tenants that will look after the place. (wink, wink, nudge, nudge)

Meanwhile I’m thinking to myself, this is east end Hamilton, Barton and Gage area just off Barton where I can be sure there is a hooker standing at the corner as I write this. And these two (smart investors I’m sure) are building their retirement nest egg. And they’re going to find “good tenants”? Uh, huh…

While speaking to this couple he’d mentioned they had a home inspection done and have some “issues” to deal with. The house has knob and tube wiring and they have 30 days to remedy the issue. They had to beg their insurance company to provide a 30 day rider for coverage.

Then I started dropping bombshells. I couldn’t resist. “Did you see any water in the basement?”, I asked? “Water? What water?” he responded. Oh, you didn’t see that? Wait, you will.

You’d mentioned repairing the eaves at the rear. What are your plans for mold remediation? “What mold” he asked. “Well, it so happens when we moved in here 3 years ago the eaves trough was partially torn off and water was pouring down inside the back wall. It was left that way for at least another year before he finally repaired it. That mold” I replied…

Did I mentioned the new owners were only there long enough and for the purpose of putting rat bait around because the place was crawling with mice? They’ve now got less than 3 weeks to secure permits and have the house rewired or they have been put out of business.

Just goes to show, there’s a sucker (Greater Fool) born every day. Like lambs being led to slaughter.

If they’d only knocked on my door.

#79 Monty on 10.29.13 at 2:59 am

Betty don’t panic. We bears have been saying the sky is falling on Vancouver houses since about 2006 when Vancouver Condo Info and the like first started the crusade. So far it hasn’t worked out too badly for the housing bulls, and so i wouldn’t be too certain that your folks will end up losing their shirts on this transaction.

We bears speak with such certainty. THIS TIME the end is near! I guess eventually we may be right, but many people will have paid off an entire mortgage by that time. What’s the latest? No interest rate increases or new mortgage tightening until 2015? It’s hard to see what will derail this market.

#80 Mrs Hubris on 10.29.13 at 3:04 am

Great interview on BNN; an evidence-based, rational challenge to the real estate cartel on their unethical, free-range and essentially unregulated practices. The Canadian government must have all house sales data through tax receipts so why exactly allow the watchdog free rein to watch itself? It’s not house-trained so it’s obviously going to pee wherever it wants and eat all the chow in front of it. There’s a continuing list of self interested practices beyond those that Garth raised. As most know, final sales price data is regularly falsified by dividing the final sale price by the most recent asking price, the latter sometimes multiples of 6 figures below the original asking price. So what then is the value of ‘SOLD at ‘98% of Asking’? It’s just more fraudulent manipulation and marketing. Recent changes in Victoria also included withdrawal of most historical data from the No Longer Matching list. Hundreds of listings suddenly disappeared and now roughly ten alone remain which are regularly removed/replaced every few days, making it impossible to track the history of a house listing. At this point sales were falling and it was therefore too apparent that asking prices were diving and many properties had been on and off the market for extensive periods. Time for the real estate industry (and Canada) to grow up and act like a ‘world class’ country? An independent source of real estate data could only be established by the government but would politicians actually view this as in their interest? I can’t help but recall a recent picture of a certain triumphant politician arm in arm with a key Vancouver developer. Is an independent source of housing data likely when so many vested interests control and benefit from the real estate industry? Probably not but keep going Garth. You’re a lone reed of independent thinking and analysis and quite the closest thing we have to quality information and truth.

#81 Shazamm on 10.29.13 at 3:30 am

#14 Paul on 10.28.13 at 9:31 pm

11 I hate realtors on 10.28.13 at 9:27 pm
The conservative government seems to support the fraud that seems to be going on in the RE industry. It seems that the conservative government supports the RE industry with whatever they do. Can we really afford the $600B + dollars in liar loans that the conservative have given away?
.*******************************************
Sounds like you missed the boat, toot, toot
###################################

But Paul…the boat is taking on water and the pumps can’t keep up. I have this sinking feeling in my gut.

#82 Shazamm on 10.29.13 at 3:37 am

Hey Garth,

Nice Job on BNN, listening right now.

#83 mark on 10.29.13 at 4:15 am

Garth,
They were slaughtering you on bnn today.
Are you really a bum that talks out of both ends of your body!!!!

How about mico markets in dawson creek b.c.
Booming up here……..but what next?

#84 Buy? Curious? on 10.29.13 at 4:30 am

Garth! That was a great interview! You look fantastic!

The point you made about how stocks are regulated yet 70% of Canadians have the bulk of their wealth in housing with almost zero regulations really hit home. I wonder if it’s something Bigrider will think about on his 30min commute to the grocery store to pick 4 litres of semi skimmed milk costing $6.17. (What kind of vehicle gives you the idea to name your handle as “Bigrider”? A pickup truck, 18 wheeler, a customized mobility scooter?)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0NoRokgwC5g

By the way, the woman in the canary yellow blazer that interviewed you, do you know if she’s single or unhappily married? I have a coupon for Flamenco dance lessons and need a partner.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXBctPuGIfU

#85 an honest man on 10.29.13 at 4:47 am

Your repeated allegations suggest you find it easier to be wilfully in the dark than to otherwise after investigating claims re: impact of duplicate listings on stats. (If u don’t know how the CREA determined that the impact on stats is bupkiss, then why not ask them how they made that determination?) Same goes for investigating specious claims about big revisions to sales stats that you give air to on your blog (revised down 22K after one month? nope; that was comparing seasonally and not seasonally adjusted stats). Repeating specious claims doesn’t make them true — but I guess that gets you the attention you crave, so well played .

#86 economictsunami on 10.29.13 at 5:19 am

“So what are the fundamentals moving real estate?”

Both cheap credit and lax qualifying standards were/ are to blame for many worldwide residential corrections.

With the BOC resigned to the fact that we presently can’t hang our hat on exports/business investment to drive our economy, (as consumer spending becomes wobbly) both they and the government are loathe to bring too much sanity back to RE too soon…

#87 Multiple Offers on 10.29.13 at 6:22 am

Country Girl, yesterday you asked “how do you know this?”.

I know it because it CAN be done, no regulations

I know it because I used to be a Low-ball Silly.

I know it because I witnessed it with some of the High Park realtors.

I know it because of the Secrets they force us to work with.

Multiple Offers are sometimes legitimate but sometimes NOT.

If only there was some Regulators assigned to review these offers, especially in an out-of-control market as we see today in good old TO’s hot spots…

I know it because it is REAL… And happening in many of the HOT-SPOTS.

Harper should hire someone to examine the Hot-Spot realtors as his Finance Minister is concerned about some out-of-control areas.. Then he should report the names of those found to be practicing this trickery at which point those who were affected should be able to demand legal retribution.

#88 [email protected] on 10.29.13 at 6:46 am

Watched the video on BMN. The CREA misreporting is a serious issue. If they are indeed negligent, couldn’t the buyers of this years real estate collectively file a lawsuit claiming misrepresentation? I guess monies would eventually come from taxpayers?

#89 Smoking Man on 10.29.13 at 7:05 am

The unpredictable universe.

Everyone tried to take down Harpo

Occupy movement failed,
Socialist failed
G20 Protesters failed.

Nope.

It was Duffy Duck, ak Elmer Fud.

Harpo won’t recover from this, show us the emails, my gut says Elmer will be offered huge payout to keep his mouth shut.

Remember in life and business it’s to what you can download that give you value, it’s what harm you can cause.

Well played Elmer…

#90 Bob on 10.29.13 at 7:41 am

Goldman Sachs warns on ‘large correction’ in Canada housing:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101150382

#91 TurnerNation on 10.29.13 at 8:00 am

Re. BNN I wonder if the Slang and O’Dreary show will call for comment.

Snowball (chance-in-h-ll) effect.

#92 TurnerNation on 10.29.13 at 8:19 am

#17 LH on 10.28.13 at 9:37 pm

And at an interest rate of say 5-6%, on a 1-1.5 mil property, 20% down, what level of salaries will be required?
Do you foresee this growth in wages?
Also account for year 3% increase in the prop taxes, and insurance.

#93 Jeff in Moose Jaw on 10.29.13 at 8:21 am

The higher a monkey climbs…

Was reading about Frank Stronach, and when it comes to his critics, he quotes an old saying:
“The higher a monkey climbs up the tree, the more his ass is exposed”

BNN TV is a high tree to climb.

#94 TurnerNation on 10.29.13 at 8:27 am

Might as well raze the Eaton Centre and build kandos. All that’s left is a collection of US-based chain stores with sweatshop made offerings.
(Our glorious way of life!)

Merry Christmas:

Sears Canada to close flagship Toronto Eaton Centre store and four others
Toronto Star – ‎19 minutes ago‎
Sears Canada will shut down its mall-anchor department stores at Toronto’s Eaton Centre and four other spots, affecting 965 employees, the company announced Tuesday morning

#95 Country Girl on 10.29.13 at 8:28 am

#87 Multiple Offers on 10.29.13 at 6:22 am

Thanks for your post. I agree, we need to stop or change the “bidding war” procedures. It’s a form of gambling. When a false (low) price is advertised it’s easy to get multiple bids. And, when the dollar amounts of competing bids are kept hidden, it’s easy to find a competitive sucker who wants to win at any price, especially when he doesn’t have much to lose, a small down payment and government-backed mortgage.

#96 Country Girl on 10.29.13 at 8:32 am

#89 Smoking Man on 10.29.13 at 7:05 am !!

Right on!

#97 Bigrider on 10.29.13 at 8:34 am

#83 Buy Curious

Walking distance to the store for that bag of milk from my place. Ride a bike just like our blog host.

Guess what, I can get to the store without fear of being mugged or accosted by street bums, unlike where you are.

#98 Beach Girl on 10.29.13 at 8:43 am

Well Western Moron, yes Beach Girl is back, never left. And referring to the sanitarium you claim I have been residing in, that is why I am back here, responding to you. Also, I am not on any meds, but would require them if I was in constant contact with you. I wish you all the best.

#99 Herb on 10.29.13 at 8:45 am

#88 [email protected],

“The CREA misreporting is a serious issue” say you, but it’s only “serious allegations” that are “seriously wrong” says CREA talking head Klump in a cloud of obfuscation. And since there was no one on the Lang & O’Leary Exchange to beat Klump about the head and shoulders, “former MP and real estate blogger Garth Turner” (Buckner) is disproved. Right?

All’s well with journalism and the RE industry. (At least Diane Buckner managed to look sceptical a few times.)

#100 Herb on 10.29.13 at 8:52 am

#85 an honest (?) man,

since you seem to have inside CREA knowledge, how about proving Garth wrong with a few facts and figures instead of allegations?

#101 Penny Henny on 10.29.13 at 8:56 am

#30 FATHER on 10.28.13 at 9:58 pm
#26
I agree, Garth is super polite and answers all the questions on BNN, but here it’s like he is going to bite our heads off. LOL.
————————————————-
Bi-polar

#102 Toronto_CA on 10.29.13 at 9:25 am

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/10/29/consumer-debt-canada-rbc_n_4171324.html?utm_hp_ref=canada

“Canadians’ debt loads have grown 21 per cent in the past year, and more consumers are running into the red, according to Royal Bank’s debt poll.

Just 24 per cent of Canadians say they are debt-free, compared to 26 per cent in 2012. And those who are in debt have increased their non-mortgage burdens to $15,920 from $13,141 in the same time frame, RBC’s survey found. That’s an extra $2,779 over the past year compared to growth of just $83 in the year prior. ”

We’re bringing forward future consumption with all this debt and STILL the GDP is only growing 1.6% in 2013.

What happens when we stop borrowing and spend on debt repayment rather than consumption? Oh right, recession.

#103 recharts on 10.29.13 at 9:28 am

Dear Mark

FY!
Here is how hot is the micromarket inToronto

This is a condo in a micromarket
C2757513
Asking 649900
Reduced 575000
Sold 572000.0
% of asking 88
reported DOM 17
real DOM 141

And here are three SFHs, one in each side (pardon….micromarket) of the city:

E2696332
1299000
1049000
999000
975000.0
% of asking 75
DOM 194

W2739007
699000
585999
Sold for 550000.0
% of asking 79
DOM 69

C2768271
1299900
999900
1084000.0

The RE agent claimed a bidding war on this one: 108% (OHAA!!!! Call the newspapers ASAP!!!!)
In reality it sold for 83% of asking
After f..ing 194 days on the market

I wish could shovel these on the throat of some statisticians who pretend that everything is OK with their numbers and that they reflect the reality.

And Mary yeah, FY means For you ..of course! And for your micro brain

#83 mark on 10.29.13 at 4:15 am
Garth,
They were slaughtering you on bnn today.
Are you really a bum that talks out of both ends of your body!!!!

How about mico markets in dawson creek b.c.
Booming up here……..but what next?

#104 Sears Closes 5 stores on 10.29.13 at 9:29 am

Thats over 1000 jobs gone right there….

#105 Ralph Cramdown on 10.29.13 at 10:13 am

“Sears Closes 5 stores. Thats [sic] over 1000 jobs gone right there.”

Let’s think about this for a minute. Sears does not make tractors for export, and did not decide to relocate a manufacturing line to Mexico. Sears sells stuff to us, but not very successfully.

Sears decided that it would be more profitable to sell its leases back to its landlord than to continue operating those stores. The landlord decided that it would be more profitable to buy those leases back and re-lease than to keep collecting rents from Sears. I predict that stock and fixtures will be liquidated, trades will be hired to make leasehold improvements and a new crop of retailers will fill the space, and achieve higher sales/sqft than Sears was able to, likely with more employees. Anyone who’s been in a Sears recently will testify that they could hardly have fewer.

The great force driving permanently lost jobs in retail is Jeff Bezos and his shareholders’ continuing willingness to sell all manner of goods with no concern whatever for profitability.

#106 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.29.13 at 10:24 am

More coverage of Garth’s complaints over unreliable CREA data at Huffington Post:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/10/29/garth-turner-housing-crea_n_4171093.html?ref=topbar

#107 "Callgirl" on 10.29.13 at 10:24 am

In the case of Sears- There’s also an under funded defined benefit pension plan.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2013/04/22/massive-liabilities-make-sears-stock-seems-overvalued-at-any-price/

Here’s hoping there’s no plan windup on the horizon:
http://www.scretireegroup.ca/docs/CFPtoFSCOstrategiesApril2013.pdf

Imagine facing this AND shouldering massive mortgage debt at the same time..

#108 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.29.13 at 10:35 am

on that BNN segment… Garth, you didn’t use the term “Frankenumber” even once! That must have taken some serious restraint, considering that the host was often referring to “long-term price trends” as the stats people should pay attention to.

#109 Buy? Curious? on 10.29.13 at 10:36 am

Oh yes, bigrider, everyone who lives in the city is getting hit up for some change or hit over the head in the process of being mugged. ANNDDD, there’s a swingers’ club on every corner! You’re so worldly, so observent! Tell me again how plesant it is to live outside of the city.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziH9St7ajuw

#110 frank le skank on 10.29.13 at 10:37 am

I think the biggest crime that all Canadian RE boards commit is the subjective and over-optimistic analysis of their monthly reports. All real estate boards are selective with the data they use for these reports and it can vary on a month to month basis. If YoY percent increase was strong in August, then they focus on that. If there are any negative patterns or relevant anomalies, they will be omitted.

Regarding the CBC interview with Gregory Klump, his wording is typical of an executive who provides an over-optimistic analysis while not fully committing to it. In his CBC interview he says ‘CREA remains confident in the reliability of the MLS system.’ To me, saying that you remain confident means that at some point you will not be confident in its reliability. So like any good executive, he’s defending his employer while protecting his ass. You should understand that concept if you are a consumer.

Although every system has deficiencies that require constant revision and improvement, some of the discrepancies with CREA numbers are intentionally unresolved and used as reliable data.

#111 TnT on 10.29.13 at 10:54 am

#78 No Debt

I met the new owners the other night. Lo and behold, they are going to be landlords !

**************

In the end you should thank them for buying the house. Then thank them for fixing it up.
Then learn something about courage to take on a project that will increase their own net worth.

#112 recharts on 10.29.13 at 10:59 am

Never before

For 416+905 Condos posted as sold today:
Avg % under the Asking price today:-3.78

So far, by my counting they have sold

Co-Op Apt 5
Co-Ownership Apt 5
Comm Element Condo 6
Condo Apt 896
Condo Townhouse 174 <— counted in the TH category by TREB
Det Condo 1
Leasehold Condo 1
Parking Space 1

They reported 1141 one year ago.
We have two more days to go and we will hear a new lie.
BTW, apparently the prices will go up again BUT that is because more and more 400-500K units are being sold discounted these days, some with a consistent loss (14-20% under asking and after around 120 days on the market)

#113 TnT on 10.29.13 at 11:09 am

#94 TurnerNation
#104 Sears Closes 5 stores

***********

This is great news for Toronto and Canada.

Sears is a dump, it’s a very old business model that does not work anymore.

It’s unfortunate there will be short term pain for the exiting employees. This is an unfortunate process that has to happen and a reminder of how important it is to hitch your job prospects to a good performing horse.

Once we purge these companies out of our economy will be blessed with more efficient ones that will get this economy roaring.

#114 Buy? Curious? on 10.29.13 at 11:14 am

What did I say about condos and subburbs becoming the slums of the future?

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2013/10/29/east_bayfront_condo_may_incorporate_affordable_rental_units_purchased_by_city_of_toronto.html

#115 The Prophet Elijah on 10.29.13 at 11:18 am

HCG soaring like an eagle:

http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/quote/t.hcg/home-capital-group-inc

Don’t see any housing correction till 2016. But it will be a severe one when it finally hits.

#116 bigrider on 10.29.13 at 11:26 am

Oh yes, Buy Curious, everyone in the suburbs drives a big SUV to the store to buy a bag of milk…LOL.

My oh my buy curious , you are so well informed about an area not more than 20 kms north from your location.

Tell me again , how plesant it is to live on top of one another other in the city again.

#117 Oceanside on 10.29.13 at 12:17 pm

I was getting a service at a local Nissan dealership last week, while waiting in the showroom I couldn’t help hearing a sales person offering a 75 + year old man a choice of $299.00 a month for 60 months or $199.00 over 84 months. One hears of all the credit seniors are amassing but hearing this really made me think this credit society is going far beyond any reason. I am in my 60’s and have enough to live comfortably, I can’t imagine needing goods so badly to borrow at this time in my life.

At my doctor’s last week (long time daily Garth reader) He said that he has friends that are purchasing very expensive homes and slanting the average sales prices horribly and like a lot of us, he is not purchasing any more real estate any time soon.

We like owning homes but have been leasing for 33 months now, we really do want and will own again but the cash in “the bank” feels pretty good right now…

#118 Godth on 10.29.13 at 12:38 pm

#67 Ralph Cramdown

“Morality? An entirely different thing. I’ve got opinions, but I must separate what I think fiscal and monetary policy OUGHT to be from what I think it likely WILL be.”

Yes, morality is best rationalized. I love reading your commentary.
You mentioned the library of Alexandria yesterday. Have you ever heard the story they were contemplating? This will be too long but what the heck, the esoteric story that built civilisation can’t be summed up in a meme:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95roZ_uHuQs

#119 :):(Ying Yang on 10.29.13 at 12:46 pm

#1 Smoking Man on 10.28.13 at 9:12 pm

Congratulations Smoking Man you are now proved to be God!

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/computer-scientists-prove-god-exists/story?id=20678984

#120 Ripped on 10.29.13 at 12:47 pm

#90 Bob

Goldman Sachs warns on ‘large correction’ in Canada housing:

Funny how they can see it internationally but we can’t. In our house horny world, they can only go up forever and ever.

LMAO

#121 Herb on 10.29.13 at 12:47 pm

#93 Jeff in Moose Jaw,

Stronach should have thought of this saying before he made an ass of himself in Austrian politics. Unfortunately, his Canadian connection came up every time he was mentioned in a newspaper.

#122 Blacksheep on 10.29.13 at 12:53 pm

#87 Multiple Offers on 10.29.13 at 6:22 am

“Country Girl, yesterday you asked “how do you know this?” ”

“I know it because I used to be a Low-ball Silly.”

“All you low-ball sillies, you’re not really helping!!”
——————————————————
Multiple Offers, this is really bothering you, let me help.

Missed my post Monday, #102 Blacksheep on 10.28.13 at 1:24 pm?

No problem, short review:

A) Tell selling agent, no offer will be made, if there is any other offers in play.

B) Tell selling agent, call only if, current offers in play, fail.

C) Tell selling agent, if a new offer comes in while in negotiations, I’m walking.

AND MOST IMPORTANTLY,

D) Offer what ever price (LOW!!!) your comfortable with, as there is many of homes for sale.

There you go, Multiple Offers, these actions should alleviate your concerns : )

What do you think?

#123 johnny d on 10.29.13 at 1:45 pm

Garth, do you still believe that deflation is still a threat in the foreseeable future? Given the BoC saying that the key rate will stay at 1% or even be reduced further… and coupled with a falling Canadian dollar compared to the US greenback, it seems our currency is going to be taking some huge losses.

#124 Penny Henny on 10.29.13 at 2:00 pm

#120 Ripped on 10.29.13 at 12:47 pm
#90 Bob

Goldman Sachs warns on ‘large correction’ in Canada housing:

Funny how they can see it internationally but we can’t. In our house horny world, they can only go up forever and ever.

LMAO
——————————————————
Not so fast there Ripped (if that’s your real name).
Garth has been saying this for years and years. And you’ll see, one day, one day he will be right.

#125 No Debt on 10.29.13 at 2:05 pm

#111 TnT

Then thank them for fixing it up.

==============================

When I spoke to the new owners the place was to be a beehive of contractor activity beginning the next day. Here it is a week later and I have yet to see anyone resembling a contractor near the place.

If what he told me was correct, they have three weeks to secure permits, rewire the house and have it certified before they no longer have insurance coverage.

What’s that tell you?

Wise investment? Hardly.

No amount of courage makes up for a stupid investment decision…

#126 Mister Obvious on 10.29.13 at 2:07 pm

#101 Penny Henny

A face for MSM and a face for blog dawgs.

Identical message regardless.

#127 bigrider on 10.29.13 at 2:15 pm

The wonderful future of high density living in the city core.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJA4IW_pkeo

Worse than future slums.

#128 Basement Dweller on 10.29.13 at 2:17 pm

enjoyed your dig about BNN talking stocks when it is a small percentage of peoples wealth. Loved the look on her face.
Your right, who cares about the small 10% that their wealth is tied into. You made them feel stupid, love it.

#129 sphincterpucker on 10.29.13 at 2:20 pm

It ain’t just zero rates that are getting CDN’s into trouble …. RY Bank reports that non mortgage credit debt has increased 20% this year…..to $16,000++ up $2700 ….These loan types are at much higher rates. The cost of keeping up with the Jones eh?

..I’ve said it before and always get the same crap from inflation deniers…..that we face deflation . I’ve said that cost inflation is the M2 multipliers fault and money is being printed at an official 14%…while most agree it’s more like 20…et voila. …bada bing bada boom…..the real cost of living is accelerating at 20% p/a and people are borrowing more every year just to go sideways.

Low and behold…..boomers are in fact not selling and downsizing into concrete coffins…

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2013/10/24/Most-boomers-want-to-stay-in-their-homes-in-retirement-Poll.aspx

That was just demographic pap to juice the market in condo’s……sweet hay for the gullible sheeple. But…what of the supply/demand dynamic for Booby and Johnny Butthead who bought the matchbox condo in West Queen West …..for fun and ‘lifestyle’ only now she’s gained a hundred and has a second little angel on the way? They need to escape to the burbs so she can drop the litter…….and inventory is short due to the wrinklies staying put……prices will push…..and condo’s will suck….or as Dr David Foote said famously in Boom Bust Echo…become functionally obselete. Suckers !!!!

#130 Mortgage Man on 10.29.13 at 2:21 pm

Interesting – I find that mortgage rates for smaller lenders not going down. I thought rates would slide a bit but they haven’t.

Maybe F talked to the banks to keep the rates as is.

#131 Daisy Mae on 10.29.13 at 2:38 pm

#26 not 1st: “Garth is so nice and soft spoken on BNN. Why does he get so snarky on the blog?”

********************

That’s easy to answer. He’s simply entitled to defend himself against some very rude posters.

#132 father on 10.29.13 at 2:49 pm

Garth you are the top headline on the huff site, Garth your a true standup guy

#133 Mr. Frugal on 10.29.13 at 2:55 pm

Most people behave like children. They search for a reason to justify those things that make them feel good but are bad for them – like over-priced real estate. As entertaining as this blog is, nobody would be here if there wasn’t some level of concensus that real estate is stupid expensive. With that in mind, why is it such a stretch to say that prices may one day come down to a more affordable level? It seems pretty obvious that one day we will run out of greater fools and the music will stop. On that day, the renters will be king.

#134 Daisy Mae on 10.29.13 at 3:22 pm

#82 Joe from Vancouver: “This is Lower Mainland,bridges connect everybody to everything. If they toll all bridges it will be time to move out…”

********************

The government is slowly tightening the screws. The day will come when the lower mainlanders will be literally forced to use public transporation.

#135 No Debt on 10.29.13 at 3:22 pm

#131 Mr. Frugal

On that day, the renters will be king.

================================

We rent our place from a friend of ours and have the freedom to do as we choose, when we choose. Sweet deal really. On the expensive side for what it is, but we’re ok with it.

Add to that, we have no debts whatsoever and we sleep very comfortably indeed. May not feel like Kings, but the feeling of freedom is priceless.

#136 World Traveller on 10.29.13 at 3:34 pm

#9 KommyKim on 10.28.13 at 9:24 pm
Look! Matchboxes in the sky! A home so small your Roomba can clean the whole thing without recharging!

http://janion2013.com/affordability.html

Hahaha, what a visual disaster that website is, someone bought a WordPress book and went to town.

I wonder how many sub 300 foot rental apartments are in Toronto?

#137 TnT on 10.29.13 at 3:48 pm

#124 No Debt

No amount of courage makes up for a stupid investment decision…

**************

They will simply go with an Insurance company that covers Knob and Tube. There are plenty that do.

The alternative for you would be a boarded up house that would make it worse for all the other houses on the street.

Some people are good at renovating and turning a profit on a rental place. Unless you see the books you are just assuming they are dumb with money.

Hamilton is still a great place for real estate values (better last year and the year before) but still $145 for a fixer upper and then rent it out seems like a low cost venture.

#138 TnT on 10.29.13 at 3:55 pm

#131 Mr. Frugal

As entertaining as this blog is, nobody would be here if there wasn’t some level of concensus that real estate is stupid expensive.

**************

This is true but after a few years reading this blog the real consensus seems to be people coming here to justify their position on renting vs. owning with some mixed in flaming and free investment advise.

#139 Wakeup on 10.29.13 at 4:00 pm

I would be worried about Goldman Sachs prediction for the housing market in Canada. They have the power to make their predictions come true. Now that Carney did a good job at the BoC, Goldman can propose us a new BoC similar to the US federal reserve once the real crisis starts.

#140 Smoking Hot on 10.29.13 at 4:20 pm

The female interviewer on BNN sounded defensive to me.

Like she has a half million dollar mortgage.

#141 Shawn on 10.29.13 at 4:30 pm

ACTUALLY, GOLDMAN SACHS HAS NO OPINIONS

Gldman Sachs obviously has NO OPINION on Canada’s housing markets or upon anything else.

The notion that that a coporation can have an oinion is a legal fiction.

In this case it was a report from Hui Shan, an economist at Goldman…

To suggest this is an opinion of GOLDMAN SACH’s is both impossible and ludicrous.

Also in any case in the markets opinions are a dime a dozen, who cares?

#142 Rabbitt One on 10.29.13 at 4:55 pm

> 139 Shawn

Your “opinion” is somewhat childish, sorry.

You wrote:
> report from Hui Shan, an economist at Goldman…

#143 Bottoms_Up on 10.29.13 at 5:16 pm

Someone that has written multiple books and a daily blog 5+ years running, with likely over 1500 posts, but only a handful of tv interviews, is not trying to get himself on television. That much is clear.

Been there. Done that. — Garth

#144 Victor V on 10.29.13 at 5:29 pm

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/three-quarters-canadians-polled-personal-debt-rbc-survey-090008307.html

As many as three-quarters of Canadians recently polled say they are in debt and owe an average amount of nearly $16,000, according to a new survey.

The average personal debt load, which doesn’t include a mortgage, jumped by $2,779 to $15,920 this year compared with last year, says RBC’s annual debt poll released on Tuesday.

Kim Taylor, the director of personal lending at the Royal Bank of Canada, said consumers may have increased their personal debt — which includes credit cards, loans and personal lines of credit — after putting off vacations or big ticket items in recent years.

#145 Delay No More on 10.29.13 at 5:36 pm

Let’s see what happened today?

-BlackBerry lays off another 300 at Waterloo headquarters
-US Steel to shut down some operations at Hamilton; firm says 47 jobs to be lost
-Sears Canada to close flagship Toronto store, 4 others
About 965 employees will be affected
-Thomson Reuters cuts 3000 jobs to reduce cost.

All happened in one day.. good grief.

#146 father on 10.29.13 at 5:44 pm

Garth one poster called you a maverick on huff

#147 Shawn on 10.29.13 at 5:52 pm

“Garth one poster called you a maverick on huff”

Is that better than a maverick on crack?

#148 Catalyst on 10.29.13 at 6:29 pm

Very nice job Garth!!!

Just watched the bnn video of your appearance and I hope to see CREA’s rebuttal.

I especially liked your pointing out how bnn rambles on about the spot price of silver (who the hell watches this stuff) and almost no unbiased coverage of the one asset most people “own”.

Keep up the good fight, Canada needs you!

Catalyst

#149 Catalyst on 10.29.13 at 6:37 pm

Read the writeup on your bnn article on huffington post. Guess what is below your story….

ReMax ads

Priceless

#150 Canadian Watchdog on 10.29.13 at 7:10 pm

GTA Average 1 Bed Rental Size – Chart

Just keep repeating it over and over again until everyone believes it: There's no inflation. Stocks are up! There's no inflation. Stocks are up! There's no inflation…

#151 Multiple Offers on 10.29.13 at 7:30 pm

#122 Blacksheep

No Need for #s 1, 2, 3 & 4.I Know how to handle these agents but m,any younger folk don’t.

The point is these trickster agents are getting away with it. As multples happen in their working areas, the next house or houses that come to market in the same area are based upon a reputation of an area that is in high demand or even higher demand allowing the agent to grow his or her market (the area they work out of) into something it may not be.

The point is it’s deception and there should be some sort of regulation..

#152 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 10.29.13 at 8:37 pm

@#117 TnT
Total agreement about Sears. (every once in a while I have to suck it up and agree with you…..it hurts , but there it is)
Doddering “old school” stores with expensive downtown locations that no one wants to visit. Sucks to be the landlord Cadillac Fairview in a few years….

As for “purging these companies” and being “blessed with more efficient ones”…. Does a barrrista at Starbucks count as “more efficient”?

I think ALL “bricks and mortar” stores are fighting a losing battle with the internet and Fed Ex. When I can buy a book for 30% less online from Chapters than an in store purchase at Chapters and have it delivered 48 hrs later to my door……Bricks and mortar stores are gonna hurt big time

#153 No Debt on 10.29.13 at 9:57 pm

#135 TnT –

The alternative for you would be a boarded up house that would make it worse for all the other houses on the street.

===================================

Truth be known, I’d prefer to see it turned into a vacant lot than see somebody get suckered in the way these folks were.

It’s that old lipstick on a pig thing, you know?

That exact same logic is what stops me from buying the house I am living in right now which I know I could get for $120k. I much prefer to let that $120k sit invested and know that income pretty much pays for where we live.

You have your fun pimping and pumping real estate. I’ll happily sit on the sidelines and enjoy my freedom.

#154 Doug on 10.30.13 at 2:30 am

Hi Garth;
I have been reading and enjoying your blog for a couple of years now. Thank you.
This is a bit off topic and maybe you will choose to respond privately.
I am being pitched a fund which promotes Exempt Market investments. It is tax protected (self directed RRSP) and the specific investments are regulated by the respective SECs but it is new to me and complex.
Would you care to comment?
Is this a legit way for high net worth individuals to participate in tranches of small but lucrative ventures or, is it a way of passing on risk to the unwary while pursuing the latest good idea???
I would be willing to consult on this if the answer I am looking for is too much work for a freebee throwaway.
Thanks again.