A new lesson

MEN

In rural Saskatchewan a geologist used to pulling in $225,000 a year on contracts with big miners now sits home and watches Oprah. “There’s no shortage of minerals in the ground,” he told me this week, “but there sure as hell is a shortage of money to find them. I’ve never seen it like this.”

In Huntsville, prime cottage country north of the sprawling GTA, a career real estate broker is on the phone with me. “I’m busy. But this market has sure changed – waterfront prices have tanked.” How so, I ask? “I sold two places this week. One started at $1.1 million and we finished the deal at $725,000. The other was on at $395,000, and he was lucky to get three and a quarter.”

“There’s a former mayor up here who’s had his place – 4,000 square feet right on the river – on the market for a year now for one point five. I told him if he actually wants to sell to start thinking about a number in the sevens.”

In Peoria, Illinois, tough news from a harbinger of the resource sector. Caterpillar said Wednesday it expects a difficult year’s coming. The world’s biggest maker of construction equipment just saw its profits, revenues and share price drop. Cat cut its forecast for sales and earnings, noting, “Orders for new mining equipment began to drop significantly in mid-212 and have continued at very low levels.”

In Ottawa, where the local condo market crumbles, came words that tanked the dollar and sent bond yields skidding. The central bank, run now by Stephen Poloz, has pushed the economic panic button. This certainly underscores some basic themes the crack Economics Department here at the GreaterFool Institute of Pathos has been yammering on about for months. Namely, the economy blows, consumers have fallen into a debt ditch, real estate’s a dangerous bubble and we should all be worried over deflation.

The Bank of Canada is about as gloomy as it’s been for ages. Growth estimates have been slashed for the rest of this year and next with the bank even saying the economy is smaller than it thought was the case.

How bad? Enough that Poloz is waving the white flag on interest rates, removing a long-standing bank commitment the next move will be to swell them. That’s what crashed the loonie (by a full cent) and bond yields, since it’s a major admission the country’s stuck in the mud, yet with massively indebted citizens plus dangerous real estate and credit bubbles. What’s it mean? Among other things, no jump in variable-rate mortgages until 2015, yet dark days looming for houses.

(By the way, expect a drop in fixed-term, five-year home loans soon – the ones that bloated up a full point earlier this year. Costs should drop a quarter point within days, and maybe a half point by Christmas, if things slump further. But I doubt we’re returning to the 2.69% days of last Spring. If we do, it’ll be time to restock the fruit cellar with cases of Cottonelle.)

Now realtors will tell you that cheap rates for another year will bring even-higher prices. At the very least, they’ll argue, it’s impossible for house values to crash without a spike in borrowing costs. This is bunkum. We have more serious things to fret over.

Fact is, property values outside of Calgary, the weird steamy bits of Van/Lower Mainland and the manic middle market in the GTA are no longer robust. There’s a condo glut in Ottawa and Winnipeg starting to impact the whole market. Halifax is cooked. Montreal prices are comatose. Vancouver Island and Saskatoon are awash in listings. Yesterday I told you about the new housing market in the wider Toronto area, where sales have fallen by up to 50%.

All of this is happening when you can still get a variable mortgage for 2.4% or lock up for a half-decade at a point more. Does anyone seriously believe prices and sales will romp higher because rates fail to rise, or even drop by a quarter? Cheap money didn’t save the American housing market after prices had roared above income levels. It didn’t work in Japan or Spain or Holland.

Of greater consequence is business investment and the jobs it creates. In a country which seems to be careening towards no-growth status, with record household and government debt, where personal incomes are stagnant and millions have gambled most of their money on one, single asset, you’d expect the central bank to be vexed. And it is. Cheap money made Vancouver bungalows into $1.5 million wealth traps, while keeping drywallers busy, but little else. Five years after the GFC, massive government deficits and 3% mortgages, this wasn’t supposed to happen.

So be careful. This could take a long time. The last place you want to be is trapped between falling house equity and towering debt payments, especially with a skanky job.

Meanwhile, did you buy those REITs, bonds and preferreds months ago when they were cheap? Hope so. Get set for a new lesson in why contrarians always win.

173 comments ↓

#1 a prairie dog on 10.23.13 at 8:40 pm

Bank of Canada warns of risk of housing ‘correction’

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/bank-of-canada-warns-of-risk-of-housing-correction/article15019345/

#2 not 1st on 10.23.13 at 8:51 pm

“Meanwhile, did you buy those REITs, bonds and preferreds months ago when they were cheap?”
____

Garth, I have been working on getting a few hundred G together into bank ETFs then turning the juicy dividend into my mortgage payment. My mortgage is 3.5% and I can get just about double that in yield. So it took half the money value of my mortgage for the dividend to match my mortgage payment.

Now RBC, BMO, TD and others are buying my house for me from themselves while I settle in for the long haul to harvest the capital gain. Once the house is bought, the dividend is mine too and the house. Is this not the sweetest thing or what?

#3 Canuck on 10.23.13 at 8:54 pm

Garth are you still bearish on gold? Would this be a good point to short it? Sounds like Goldman Sachs is calling for $1,000 bucks in the short to medium term.

#4 Backstep on 10.23.13 at 8:56 pm

I’m worried that not only is the probability of a Fed taper diminishing, the likelihood that they will increase QE is slowly going up. In which case the party continues and gets even more frenzied. Can’t help but wonder whether that will drive up parts of our Canadian RE even higher.

#5 Gulf Island on 10.23.13 at 8:56 pm

So why are there so many mixed messages out there? Why does one economist from one organization have a complete opposite opinion than the economist from the bank? The answer is actually quite simple, the man from the bank has a vested interest in maintaining continuously appreciating assets… even when he knows that those assets are way over inflated and destined to correct. In fact, just like normal everyday people he is likely to also hold a mortgage with the bank; the man from the bank is exposed to the exact same kind of risk as the general public and of course wants to do everything he can to avoid fueling the flames of the inevitable!

http://goo.gl/HmkVO4

#6 Smoking Man on 10.23.13 at 9:05 pm

Big shock, rates dropping like a led Zeppelin on Jupiter.

Never bet against a Smoking Man. You think you all would have learned by now.

Watch trade balance numbers.

I’m am signing up tomorrow as a Ordained Dudeist Priest, a blog dog shared the link yesterday.

Anyone getting Married? :)

#7 calgaryPhantom on 10.23.13 at 9:07 pm

Meanwhile, did you buy those REITs, bonds and preferreds months ago when they were cheap?”____

————————————————————————–
We don’t come to this blog just to watch those creepy pics that you post.

Offcourse we did buy those.

#8 polecat on 10.23.13 at 9:09 pm

Garth, I may have a chance at a job overseas. What are tax implications? Looking at spending at least 6 months or more out of Canada. Any info appreciated,
Thank’s for the blog.

#9 valleyrenter on 10.23.13 at 9:09 pm

“Sir… does this mean that Ann-Margret’s not coming?” -Private Joker, Full Metal Jacket

#10 Franco on 10.23.13 at 9:13 pm

Who cares about RE values when your other investments are going to slump just as bad or more. Let’s hope things turn around quickly and the pain does not last too long. Too many people, including me, got hurt or are still hurting from 2008 economic meltdown.

#11 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.23.13 at 9:14 pm

@ #4 Backstep on 10.23.13 at 8:56 pm
I’m worried that not only is the probability of a Fed taper diminishing, the likelihood that they will increase QE is slowly going up. In which case the party continues and gets even more frenzied. Can’t help but wonder whether that will drive up parts of our Canadian RE even higher.
———————–

Is there really any direct connection between U.S. Fed stimulus and Canadian housing? Do we get our loans from U.S. banks? Do we buy homes in U.S. dollars? Are the “cheap money” dollars active in the U.S. equity markets as a result of QE directly buying Canadian properties?

#12 TDO on 10.23.13 at 9:16 pm

With interest rates looking to be low until 2016, is now the time to start Smith Manoeuvre?

It is never time for that. — Garth

#13 HAWK on 10.23.13 at 9:18 pm

Isn’t this the Central Bank that has less Equity on its own Balance Sheet than even the US Fed? Somebody needs to warn the sheeple about Central Bankers.

#14 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.23.13 at 9:18 pm

In a country which seems to be careening towards no-growth status, with record household and government debt, where personal incomes are stagnant and millions have gambled most of their money on one, single asset, you’d expect the central bank to be vexed.

Canada is already in a no-growth (or even negative growth) economy. Those cranes in the air driving 20%+ of GDP are an economic mirage. There is nothing sustainable about building condos for speculators.

#15 ILoveCharts on 10.23.13 at 9:21 pm

Is this the cue for F or the OSFI to step in and regulate?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JS02EEI5P9k

#16 pinstripe on 10.23.13 at 9:21 pm

Real Estate is very boring.

High Drama is watching the implosion of the Senate.

#17 AK on 10.23.13 at 9:23 pm

“Meanwhile, did you buy those REITs, bonds and preferreds months ago when they were cheap?”
====================================

Still Cheap..

HR.UN………………….. – 6.18%
D.UN……………………. – 7.61%
CUF.UN………………… – 7.56%
TN.UN…………………… – 8.19%
NHW.UN……………….. – 7.10%

#18 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.23.13 at 9:23 pm

@ #10 Franco on 10.23.13 at 9:13 pm
Who cares about RE values when your other investments are going to slump just as bad or more. Let’s hope things turn around quickly and the pain does not last too long. Too many people, including me, got hurt or are still hurting from 2008 economic meltdown.
—————————————-

Those “other investments” are up 20%+ this year alone if they include U.S. equities… are you anticipating a 20% crash? Even if you are, just take some of those U.S. gains and put them into Europe and elsewhere. If you’re worried about over-priced equities, look for picks with a P/B under 1.6 and P/E under 12 and start hunting for deep value winners.

#19 Habbit on 10.23.13 at 9:24 pm

And the TSX is set to go higher? Must be bank profits?

#20 Cow Man on 10.23.13 at 9:26 pm

# 8 Polecat

Check with a professional; but my wife worked in US and Mexico for five years. Had Canada’s largest multi national accounting firm doing her taxes. Foreign earned income is taxed at the top tax rate from dollar one. No kidding. You would think that Canadian Government would like foreign currency coming home Not so.

#21 Furio on 10.23.13 at 9:28 pm

The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.

FDR

#22 45north on 10.23.13 at 9:28 pm

Callgirl: (from yesterday) Most of what I hear is call after call to cash out of every possible investment, and paying taxes and fees to do so.

so they’re “all in” – fools

The central bank, run now by Stephen Poloz, has pushed the economic panic button.

again?

#23 Smoking Man on 10.23.13 at 9:33 pm

#8 polecat on 10.23.13 at 9:09 pm
Garth, I may have a chance at a job overseas. What are tax implications? Looking at spending at least 6 months or more out of Canada. Any info appreciated,Thank’s for the blog.
……….

UOG Google it.

#24 CrazyHorse on 10.23.13 at 9:36 pm

“did you buy those REITs, bonds and preferreds months ago when they were cheap?”

… Nope, I bought bitcoins at around $80-90 dollars a couple of months ago. Now they are at $220 (again). Your investment advice provides low returns.

That sounds stable. — Garth

#25 Bank of Canada on 10.23.13 at 9:38 pm

B of C keeping rates low for another 3 years and is also open to the idea of lowering its over night rate if needed to.?????

It said neither. — Garth

#26 worried over deflation..NOT on 10.23.13 at 9:41 pm

“worried over deflation”

NEVER, deflation is a good thing. For those with money and wanting to buy products/services. So speak for yourself chum!

Deflation is far more lethal than inflation. — Garth

#27 Inglorious Investor on 10.23.13 at 9:41 pm

“Cheap money didn’t save the American housing market after prices had roared above income levels.”

Yes, but don’t forget that another major reason for the housing crash was mortgage fraud. In fact, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that the housing crisis in the US was really a mortgage crisis. A very large percentage of the bad loans made were for fraudulent re-fi’s and stupid speculation.

Any corrupted system will eventually destroy itself.

#28 "Callgirl" on 10.23.13 at 9:44 pm

To Cici:
I was so leery of posting observations on a public blog.
Thanks so much for your welcome yesterday.
I saw today as one more opportunity to get insights and observations and enjoyed it so much more!
I was shocked that anyone even noticed a new poster .. I will definitely continue to participate.

After five thousand calls, patterns, attitudes and trends clearly emerge.. but none of those will be more than my biased observations.

But, now it suddenly feels a bit more worth sharing them. Thanks again.

#29 Inglorious Investor on 10.23.13 at 9:45 pm

Interest rates may not rise meaningfully until there is a serious move away from the US dollar. But this goes way beyond economics and deeply into the realm of geopolitics. Keep your eye on the relative strength of the US military, particularly the Navy. That’s the key.

#30 Wonk on 10.23.13 at 9:45 pm

Print Stephen print………..QE is the way, drive those interest rates down, push the liquidity into equity…..er…productive assets.
Let’s inflate our way out of this bog……it’s working for the other developed markets isn’t it????
We know it doesn’t work in emerging markets but that ain’t us.
Print Stephen baby print……..but make sure you sterilize it so things don’t get out of hand eh.

#31 Property Accountant on 10.23.13 at 9:45 pm

Yes, I was buying those REIT’s like crazy during the times they were squeezed by “the end of tapering doomsday” and now their prices are slowly raising in value… except those affected by League Group bankruptcy filing, like IGW REIT or Partners REIT .

Fixed income securities are raising in value overall, US 30 Year treasuries appreciated 1.5% over past few days, US dollar tanked to basket of currencies, CAD tanked as well, oil dropped, gold is recovering…

According to CFA level 1 study curriculum, Economy Book – narrowing of spread between long term & short term yields, dropping commodity prices, increasing demand for fixed income securities… yes, the word is Recession. It signals lowering of interest rates and cheap money government will flood the system with to desperately avoid deflation and keep up famous P=MxV monetarist equation.

In US recession began in late 2008, after big bank bailouts in September. 5 years later FED’s are still resuscitating the economy. Canada bought some time and way out through household and government debt, but it’s all coming to an end in economy where we sell houses and condos to each other or buy condos through mortgages guaranteed by government hoping to get rich.

I think we will experience Japan in here. Or at least 5 painful years Uncle Sam had… and still has.

#32 Inglorious Investor on 10.23.13 at 9:49 pm

“Cheap money made Vancouver bungalows into $1.5 million wealth traps,[…]”

Yes, when you cheapen your currency, you erode the society. Steeply rising asset prices are a sign of trouble, not health. In a healthy economy with a stable, non-maniacal monetary system, the order of the day would be either stable prices or slight but steady deflation, depending on the relative strength between the forces of supply and demand and productivity-driving technological advancement.

#33 Backlight on 10.23.13 at 9:50 pm

So when is the next mortgage rule/policy change…?! It’s been, what, over a year now since the last major policy change? Surely something else must be on the books considering average prices continue to increase…

#34 Realtor # 1 on 10.23.13 at 9:51 pm

the story always changes; never try to time the market

A year ago all I read was next year rates will be higher
now rates will be cheap for the foreseeable future.

#35 Inglorious Investor on 10.23.13 at 9:54 pm

“Does anyone seriously believe prices and sales will romp higher because rates fail to rise, or even drop by a quarter?”

While today governments and central banks are distorting, well, everything, don’t forget that lower interest rates usually mean less demand for debt. Under our current system, that signals less ‘growth.’ This is why assets prices are rising. There are not enough good investments to drive future economic growth so rather than invest in future productivity, more money is going into assets. Again, it’s a sign of weakness, not strength.

#36 Nosty in Vladland on 10.23.13 at 9:54 pm

#138 Shawn on 10.23.13 at 6:10 pm — “FED seems determined to keep pouring gas on the fire until the big logs light and can stay lit without the gasoline.”

No arguments there, as you are far more intelligent than I. But what effect and how does the petrodollar play in all this, with SArabia? There are many things happening which the m$m (conveniently) forgets to report. Could it also include a new MEast? Or this?

#37 Inglorious Investor on 10.23.13 at 9:57 pm

#5 Gulf Island on 10.23.13 at 8:56 pm
“Why does one economist from one organization have a complete opposite opinion than the economist from the bank?”

They are talking their respective ‘books.’ Never trust what bank economists say, but in any case, always keep in mind who is delivering the message. Will a realtor ever tell you it’s a bad time to buy a house?

#38 not 1st on 10.23.13 at 9:58 pm

Lets be honest about QE. What govt program was ever put in place and then subsequently removed? Answer; none. They are tweaked,modified to give the illusion of a scale back but they are never gutted.

QE is regular govt spending now, just like all the other programs like defense, SS, Medicare, Obamacare. Its never going away and is built right into future GDP.

That means the stock market is likely to double over the next 10 years.

#39 Shot Ski on 10.23.13 at 9:58 pm

“Cheap money didn’t save the American housing market after prices had roared above income levels. It didn’t work in Japan or Spain or Holland.”
I can attest, I recently returned from the Netherlands, and lots of for sale signs to be seen esp in small towns.

The Netherlands had their own post war baby boom, but over there their not called boomers, they are the Grey Wave.

#40 Inglorious Investor on 10.23.13 at 10:02 pm

“Deflation is far more lethal than inflation. — Garth”

Today, that’s true, but only because our maniacal monetary system has us trapped in a never-ending, upward debt spiral that has made us dependent on inflation. It’s been good for the banks, but not for the people.

#41 Inglorious Investor on 10.23.13 at 10:04 pm

#31 Realtor # 1 on 10.23.13 at 9:51 pm
“A year ago all I read was next year rates will be higher
now rates will be cheap for the foreseeable future.”

Think Japan.

#42 Observer Person on 10.23.13 at 10:06 pm

#27 Yes, but don’t forget that another major reason for the housing crash was mortgage fraud. A very large percentage of the bad loans made were for fraudulent re-fi’s and stupid speculation.

Ah yes, “it’s different here.” Except it’s not, when CRA is going after speculators for claiming ‘investment’ condos as primary residences. Except it’s not when “stated income” loans were accepted by banks no questions asked. Except it’s not when banks gave 5% cash back when 5% was all it took to get a loan. Maybe it’s not as extensive as it was in the U.S., but you could not have this extent of home ‘ownership’ at these income levels and these house prices *without* some fraudulent contribution. If anything, having jumbo loans backstopped by the CMHC has been an invitation to banks to look the other way.

In any case, however we got here, with prices this out of line with incomes, and housing having no intrinsic value in line with its current prices, we have a massive bubble. Did we come by it totally honestly? Not likely.

#43 peter on 10.23.13 at 10:07 pm

Don’t play fast and lose with Victoria’s stats. Listings are lower this September vs. last and lower than September 2 years ago. Yr / yr median prices for sing detached homes are up. I would instead point out that rental vacancy rates are at 20 + year highs in beautiful #YYJ which should put pressure on real estate (especially condos). http://www.vreb.org/pdf/vrebgal.pdf

The top end of the market is a swamp. Victoria is a very bad place to invest at this time. — Garth

#44 Shawn on 10.23.13 at 10:08 pm

I like the Way You Think….

Nosty at 132 said:

Shawn… No arguments there, as you are far more intelligent than I.

**************************************

Actually, you sound like a very intelligent fellow yourself.

#45 Inglorious Investor on 10.23.13 at 10:09 pm

#42 Observer Person on 10.23.13 at 10:06 pm

I completely agree. Long ago, I said on this blog to expect mortgage fraud cases to start cropping up in Canada as the market turns down.

#46 "Callgirl" on 10.23.13 at 10:12 pm

And yes, when I did an interfund transfer to a fund with preferreds REIT and a smaller bond component the bank..
Tried to give me a ten thousand dollar line of credit out of the blue. And no, not a heloc.

#47 Realtor # 1 on 10.23.13 at 10:12 pm

Not enough to believe that high personal debt is enough to bring down the market.
We had high personal debt for years and it did nothing to curb the housing market.

You guys have nothing but hope to bring down the market.
Should have bought when you have the chance. Too late now pay the high price.

#48 dave b on 10.23.13 at 10:29 pm

mid-212 = mid-2012

#49 Basil Fawlty on 10.23.13 at 10:29 pm

We keep hearing about deflation and maybe it will arrive. In the meantime, the price of goods and services necessary for survival continue to rise.

#50 Onthesidelines on 10.23.13 at 10:34 pm

Garth, we don’t expect you to be an all knowing oracle, so you can stop pretending to be one.

Your self assured call on interest rates equalising/rising was just hot air even though you tried to hedge it by equating it to a mortgage rate rise ( it isn’t, not for those of us who don’t have mortgages anyway).

You may ideed yet find yourself having to backpedal on all your rosy predictions on the US. No doubt you will try to wiggle out of that as well.

Don’t get me wrong. I do enjoy and appreciate the blog but, like all advice on the internet, I dare say even yours needs to be consumed with a pinch of salt.

There was no prediction here the Bank of Canada would raise its rate in 2013. It didn’t and won’t. I did say long-term mortgage rates would rise. They did. Soon they will retrace a little. If you are grumpy about your GIC rate don’t take it out on me. I’m too sensitive to cope. — Garth

#51 Smoking Man on 10.23.13 at 10:40 pm

#45 “Callgirl” on 10.23.13 at 10:12 pm

Love your name……. My kinda girl…

You can’t invent a name like that without a description, measurements, and a restrictions statement.

Welcome to the blog

#52 Snowboid on 10.23.13 at 10:46 pm

In the meantime, back in the foggy Okanagan, the on-off-off-on-off Sopa Square project is back on.

Taking registrations this fall for 2015 completion – are there any Greater Fools left? Prices start at $340K and top out at $ 2.25 million.

http://kelowna.en.craigslist.ca/reb/4146000924.html

#53 Dienekes on 10.23.13 at 10:46 pm

Yes, I bought a pile of XRE, love seeing that monthly payment.
About mines, Hudbay minerals was rocking a year ago, contractors couldn’t keep up. Now, since July, nothing. They are not spending a cent, literally. It’s a ghost town in the mine site.

#54 Son of Ponzi on 10.23.13 at 10:59 pm

What I remember from the Crash of 08 is that all assets got hit, and got hit hard.
My lowly GIC did not suffer any declines in value.
Protection of principal should be the prudence advice going forward.

Those who lose in declines are the fools who sell. Those who lose consistently have GICs. — Garth

#55 Gg on 10.23.13 at 11:00 pm

Told you a year ago … Zero rates until the bond market says enough. Rates will go up but not because of growth. US growth rate at 3.5% per Fed and others? LoL. They have a shitty forecast record – fact. There is a US depression and the economy requires structural changes.

#56 Invest4life on 10.23.13 at 11:00 pm

Hi Garth, what bond etf do you prefer to stuff away in a portfolio right now. I’m trying to Do that thing your always talking about. 60% equity & 40% fixed
Your advice is appreciated.

#57 recharts -416 Condo rentals ($/sqft) on 10.23.13 at 11:00 pm

This is for Canadian Watchdog

http://img708.imageshack.us/img708/4968/fpx9.jpg
The graph shows the price per sqft (asking price) for condo rentals in Toronto

This does not match with your results based on data collected from Kijiji. I wonder why. My data is collected from a public site hooked into MLS.

PS:Do not ask what site

#58 FATHER on 10.23.13 at 11:02 pm

CALL GIRL welcome to the blog blog dawg

#59 FATHER on 10.23.13 at 11:05 pm

(this could take a long time) does this mean smart people will have to wait more than 3 years garth?

#60 recharts -416 Condo rentals ($/sqft) on 10.23.13 at 11:06 pm

Garth, seriously why do we have to endure shit like this?
The guy makes no sense, he is here just to irritate us, can’t you make him disappear?

Realtor # 1 on 10.23.13 at 10:12 pm
Not enough to believe that high personal debt is enough to bring down the market.
We had high personal debt for years and it did nothing to curb the housing market.

You guys have nothing but hope to bring down the market.
Should have bought when you have the chance. Too late now pay the high price.

Comic relief. — Garth

#61 Steve French on 10.23.13 at 11:09 pm

Tired? Stressed out? Staying up late and worrying about what it all means?

Relax.

The Dude Abides….

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYUD6vs0pg4

#62 Son of Ponzi on 10.23.13 at 11:13 pm

A pitcher for the San Francisco Giants just signed for 16 mill for 2 years.
My son is a Bantam Ace pitcher who will be drafted soon.
REITs are for losers who don’t have gifted kids.

#63 FATHER on 10.23.13 at 11:24 pm

GARTH why no answer?

Incomprehensible question. — Garth

#64 omg on 10.23.13 at 11:25 pm

#58 recharts -416 Condo rentals ($/sqft)

You’ll note that Realtor #1 does not really bring anything to the party other than inflammatory comments. Best thing to do is ignore him.

#65 Carpe Diem on 10.23.13 at 11:41 pm

#50 Onthesidelines

Dude, you need to learn to read. Garth has been consistent on the rates subject. Be it GoC or Mortgage (Bond) rates. GoC was not going to change rates – it can’t but the bond will … which it did this summer.

Onthesidelines

I’m sorry you either can’t read or are not smart.

… on another topic ….

4 weeks back, I visited a target home. It was a soccer MILF who was the realtor! The outfit she wore was out of this world! I enjoyed the visit for 3 reasons.

1. The home – so nice but overpriced.
2. The realtor – so nice but not so bright.
3. The realtor telling me mortgage brokers told her mortgage rates were going higher … I corrected her referring to this financial adviser that knows his macro-economics shit.

She had a “Dear in headlights” look afterword.

I sure enjoyed the headlights and going up the stairs.

The house is still for sale. No movement on price.

Carpe

#66 "Callgirl" on 10.23.13 at 11:43 pm

#51 Ah smoking man, it’s good to have you back.

Description: unattractive, middle aged, adept at failure, frumpy, a slight to the fashion industry..
Restrictions: Probably no more than 40% equity for me…
;)

57 Thanks Father!

#67 R on 10.23.13 at 11:44 pm

Any reason why sfh not taking any hit in gta

#68 FATHER on 10.23.13 at 11:48 pm

sorry I’ll try again, 2nd to last paragraph say’s this will take a long time does this refer to house prices? If so does the statement from one of the earlier posts stating people who wait 3 years will be the smart one’s be prolonged or on track

#69 FATHER on 10.23.13 at 11:55 pm

“CALL GIRL” beauty is in the eye of the beholder and inner beauty is what really counts

#70 Obvious Truth on 10.23.13 at 11:55 pm

Too late for housing. Garth and his posters called the turn two days ago.

Rates won’t help now and a one percent rate would destroy housing. Would mean deflation.

Funny to think that inflation is your only catalyst now. But that will be messy.

It amazing how things can turn and how you now need rates to rise extremely quickly to save your home value. Better hope you get a raise before you renew.

Contrarian indeed.

#71 Uwinsome on 10.24.13 at 12:17 am

Real estate is done and pointing lower. US stocks are at a all time high, with earnings lackluster – looks toppy. Central banks are slashing GDP forecasts. Gold is low and seems destined for more of a fall. Oil’s support appears to be south of here. So, where do you invest right now? Just REITs & preferreds? These plus bonds may be in for more of a surprise when taper talks come back soon. Or do you just sit on the sidelines right now?

#72 Christopher Lackey on 10.24.13 at 12:25 am

Garth, we all know the large metropolitan areas are overheated, and that you’d be subsidizing any tenants at today’s prices if you were to invest in a rental property.

But what about small towns in the 75-150 km range? We’re talking much lower prices and not that much lower rents for rental properties. If I can put down 25k or less, no CMHC and the place is rented with leases for several hundred dollars a month positive cash flow, what’s the harm in that?At the end of 25 years you’d have collected all that income and doubled your initial investment even if the place declined 50% in value. Right?

The reason I bring it up is there must be some interesting way to take advantage of these low rates other than investing in overvalued urban properties,over and above of course income producing liquid assets and a balance diversified portfolio

#73 KommyKim on 10.24.13 at 12:29 am

RE: #56 Invest4life on 10.23.13 at 11:00 pm
Hi Garth, what bond etf do you prefer to stuff away in a portfolio right now.

There is no exact answer. If you think interest rates will be rising, choose short bonds. If you think interest rates will be dropping go with long bond ETFs. If you can tolerate a little more risk for better returns choose corporate bonds over government ones. If you are totally risk averse, and want to piss Garth off, choose GICs.

#74 4 AM Sunrise on 10.24.13 at 12:30 am

#46 Callgirl:

In my experience, the guy in the blue suit and bowler hat will give out unsecured $10 000 personal lines of credit to ANY schmo with so-so credit or better. It’s been going on for at least five years, though lately they’ve been aggressive about it.

#75 Waterloo Resident on 10.24.13 at 12:40 am

Garth: “a skanky job”.

What’s that?

Is that like a skanky woman?

#76 Marnic on 10.24.13 at 12:53 am

Wow, CAT tanking…right in the middle of the great US economic recovery and all.

#77 Son of Ponzi on 10.24.13 at 12:54 am

Garth,
You know what I love about GIC’s in an RRSP.
A good night’s sleep.

#78 mark on 10.24.13 at 12:59 am

Garth, the global economy is deleveraging after a decades-long debt fueled boom. Many other countries have had major recessions and are well in to their deleveragjng process, despite low interest rates. Looking at household debt here in Canada, its like the credit crisis never happened. Only now are things slowing down. Why is Canada so different? Why did it take us several years to reach this point?

#79 Son of Ponzi on 10.24.13 at 1:33 am

Before the crash of 08 my wife had most of her investments in medium risks investments suggested to her by her financial advisor.
Needless to say, she lost about 50%.
Her portfolio is just slowly recovering.
My lowly GIC’s with about 3% is doing well.
She loves me more than ever.
Happy wife, Happy life!

#80 Frustrated Kiwi on 10.24.13 at 4:30 am

#3 Canuck Clearly the time to short gold was when it was at $1900 but I believe Garth would call that gambling not investing. Do it if you must but keep it under 5% of your portfolio. My own gambling was with tech stocks in the 90s – rather put me off it, but luckily I had followed the 5% advice so it was merely an interesting lesson. Balanced diversified portfolios are much less stressful!

#56 Invest4life You’re new here. Garth doesn’t recommend individual EFTs here as he believes they should be tailored to the person.

#81 polecat on 10.24.13 at 4:35 am

COWMAN AND SMOKING MAN

Thank’s for the info, wondering if it’s worth it but we’ll see.

#82 Onthesidelines on 10.24.13 at 4:52 am

There was no prediction here the Bank of Canada would raise its rate in 2013. It didn’t and won’t. I did say long-term mortgage rates would rise. They did. Soon they will retrace a little. If you are grumpy about your GIC rate don’t take it out on me. I’m too sensitive to cope. — Garth

Bull. You consistently stated that interest rates would equalize and had nowhere to go but up. Don’t make me dig through the archives to prove it. Yes, when the mortgage rates spiked a bit, you took credit for that prediction on rates saying it’s the same thing. It’s not.

As for my GICs, no worries. There is a point one reaches in wealth accumulation, where that extra point or two makes little difference to lifestyle. I sleep well, eat well, and don’t need to worry about betting in the scumbag casino called the stock market.

I also don’t need to support scumbag banks by buying their preffered shares or any other enterprise that basically acts against the common interest of humanity. Yeah, I know, silly me.

Back to regular programming.

You hate banks, yet give them all your money in return for 2%? What a rebel. — Garth

#83 Beach Girl on 10.24.13 at 6:23 am

Wonder if Mr Harper would like to put a Chicklet in Mr Duffy’s head? LOL.

#84 Tony on 10.24.13 at 6:38 am

Re: #62 Son of Ponzi on 10.23.13 at 11:13 pm

Well selected long term corporate bonds don’t implode if held to maturity. Stocks and REIT’s can and do implode and even over a long period of time can be much lower in price 30 or 40 years in the future.

Now why would you hold an asset for 40 years in a volatile and changeable world? — Garth

#85 Doctor Evel on 10.24.13 at 7:29 am

57 recharts -416 Condo rentals ($/sqft) on 10.23.13 at 11:00 pm
This is for Canadian Watchdog

http://img708.imageshack.us/img708/4968/fpx9.jpg
The graph shows the price per sqft (asking price) for condo rentals in Toronto

This does not match with your results based on data collected from Kijiji. I wonder why. My data is collected from a public site hooked into MLS.

PS:Do not ask what site
====================================
He could tell you but then he would have to kill you.
Do I here Austin powers in the back ground !!

#86 Bob Loblaw on 10.24.13 at 7:36 am

@56 Invest4life

40% CBO / 40% CLF / 20% GIC ladder

Not my choices. — Garth

#87 Centre-ville on 10.24.13 at 7:48 am

I LOVE today’s pic. Wish people would turn contrarian a little more often.

#88 recharts on 10.24.13 at 7:58 am

Try brain power next time

#85 Doctor Evel on 10.24.13 at 7:29 am
57 recharts -416 Condo rentals ($/sqft) on 10.23.13 at 11:00 pm
This is for Canadian Watchdog

http://img708.imageshack.us/img708/4968/fpx9.jpg
The graph shows the price per sqft (asking price) for condo rentals in Toronto

This does not match with your results based on data collected from Kijiji. I wonder why. My data is collected from a public site hooked into MLS.

PS:Do not ask what site
====================================
He could tell you but then he would have to kill you.
Do I here Austin powers in the back ground !!

#89 TurnerNation on 10.24.13 at 8:20 am

What were people doing pre-Internet? Huddled in coffee shops, kids hockey arenas, rec rooms nodding furiously and talking in hushed tones, over fiat currency debasement, hypothication, silver market manipulation, derivatives ponzi, Austrian Economics, central banker currency wars?

Get lives…

#90 TurnerNation on 10.24.13 at 8:29 am

#72 Christopher Lackey on

Illiquidity. Small towns and their jobs are being decimated harder. Cities are all the rage. (Agenda 21?)

#91 TurnerNation on 10.24.13 at 8:35 am

Not to forget Zimbabwe…pull up a chair and a double-double. Hours of fun at parties?

#92 Let's open "The suckers of the day" series on 10.24.13 at 8:53 am

I will post here outstanding sales that happened in Toronto and did not make it to the media as opposite to those “bidding wars” that so many of use to see in newspapers.
This will be refreshing for TnT and Realtor#1 and their supporters.
Let’s count how many times the sucker of the day is in the overprices central areas C9-C14 for SFHs or in C1-C08 for Condos

Some interesting observations for today:
-today is the first time when they sell more SFHs than Condo Apartments in Toronto
-today is the first time when 416&GTA combined sold for more than 3% UNDER the asking price.
The 30 days average used to be -3% but the daily used to be -2.5%-2.7%. Well ..today was -3.12!! Maybe it is just a blip

Anyway, let’s not diverge, here are the suckers of the day:

Condos
W2741094
249900
234500
229000
220000 <–Sold
88%
DOM 47

E2753919
549000
499000
488000<–Sold
89%
DOM 158

SFHs

C2731360
1688000
1488000
1300000 <–Sold
77%
DOM 176

Say hello to TnT and Realtor #1 if yu see them arround

#93 housedoc on 10.24.13 at 8:56 am

“Callgirl” said:

“I was shocked that anyone even noticed a new poster .. I will definitely continue to participate.”
————————————————————–
Callgirl?
Why would anyone notice?

#94 jerry on 10.24.13 at 8:57 am

I don’t bet against America. I also think that that any Prime Minister who is out there hustling for new trade deals and expanding other markets opportunities is doing the right thing.

CETA ….don’t know the details yet but assume there must be some upside here to our future economy and investment environment.

#95 recharts on 10.24.13 at 9:13 am

#94 jerry on 10.24.13 at 8:57 am
I don’t bet against America. I also think that that any Prime Minister who is out there hustling for new trade deals and expanding other markets opportunities is doing the right thing.

CETA ….don’t know the details yet but assume there must be some upside here to our future economy and investment environment.
——

Ironically the only upside is that we do not want to depend on the America that you don’t want to bet against :-))
Some goes for our closer relations with China.
The government does not share your opinion and finally realized that we need to diversify (the mantra of this blog, rember?)

#96 a prairie dog on 10.24.13 at 9:28 am

#41 Inglorious Investor

#31 Realtor # 1
“A year ago all I read was next year rates will be higher
now rates will be cheap for the foreseeable future.”

Think Japan.

– — –

Commission drones don’t think. They only know what they’re told in agency meetings. If they could think, they’d have real jobs.

#97 Toronto_S on 10.24.13 at 9:35 am

Re: #57 recharts -416 Condo rentals ($/sqft)
——————————————————

Your chart only goes back to May. How about a more meaningful time period? There has definitely been an increase in rental prices downtown. My building used to rent $1300 for a one bedroom (two years ago). Then with some updating, $1600. Now the same units are $1800.

#98 drydock on 10.24.13 at 9:43 am

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Mnu-dKyry9w

This is the end result of basing your economy on real-estate bubbles.

#99 Ronaldo on 10.24.13 at 9:44 am

#47 Realtor #1 – where were you in the 70s, 80s and 90’s?

#100 Steven on 10.24.13 at 9:44 am

This big slow down should not surprise anyone except that it took so long to manifest itself. Now that we know it exists we should not be surprised if much of the price inflation since the 1970s is wiped away due to unsupportable excess debt and low pay rates for private sector employees that deprives them of the buying power they need to cope with the cost of living and real estate. Expect big ticket items and government to fall hard due to high debt levels and a poorly paid population. An economy is as financially strong as the lowest paid working man. If he isn’t doing well and thriving then everything else is at risk.
Call it the law of the minimum.

#101 ClusterF on 10.24.13 at 9:50 am

But I thought Caterpillar earnings were notoriously volatile and not a good indicator of the state of the world economy? I think I remember you posting this months ago?

The forward guidance is worth paying attention to. — Garth

#102 Beach Girl on 10.24.13 at 9:59 am

Well Garth, what is your take on Harper and Duffy. Who is lying? And 90K is chump change. What’s the story line?

I am sworn to secrecy. — Garth

#103 "Callgirl" on 10.24.13 at 10:00 am

#74- You are exactly right. It was indeed the aggressiveness and my average schmo status that surprised me in the offer..
#91 Mr Nation. Disappointed! I do have a fifty billion dollar note from Zimbabwe obtained while nearby in Zambia- Economics is fascinating. Parties are for weekends. We can have lives too!

I was hoping others might join me for Robert Schiller’s Yale based Coursera course in February. Party on!

#104 Waterloo Resident on 10.24.13 at 10:03 am

Mortgage rates are slowly going down to 1%.

Might take 3 or 4 years, but slowly rates will go down, and home prices will double.

How are the meds? — Garth

#105 -=jwk=- on 10.24.13 at 10:04 am

# 8 Polecat

Check with a professional; but my wife worked in US and Mexico for five years. Had Canada’s largest multi national accounting firm doing her taxes. Foreign earned income is taxed at the top tax rate from dollar one. No kidding. You would think that Canadian Government would like foreign currency coming home Not so.

You likely have grounds to sue, that it the worst advice ever. If you are in a treaty country, such as US, you are a deemed non-resident and don’t pay double tax. If you are not in a treaty country you could be a non-resident and thus exempt form all taxes. See IT-221. Only then can you calculate the impact. Your wife should have deemed non-resident (at least) and thus not be taxed in Canada. IF she flew back and forth, then she would be a resident for tax purposes, but since mexico is a treaty country there would be no double taxes. I used PWC out of vancouver for my world travels. And I have the 92nd edition of ITA right here handy :)

#106 recharts on 10.24.13 at 10:18 am

The whole hysteria started around that time.
I remember that Garth dedicated one of his posts to a young “lady” who was “worried” in her article about how much the rent were increasing while she was a landlord :-).
I do not have longer term rates.
If you are curious about the history of asking prices in your building for my time span let me know.

#97 Toronto_S on 10.24.13 at 9:35 am
Your chart only goes back to May. How about a more meaningful time period? There has definitely been an increase in rental prices downtown. My building used to rent $1300 for a one bedroom (two years ago). Then with some updating, $1600. Now the same units are $1800.

#107 recharts on 10.24.13 at 10:34 am

#97 Toronto_S on 10.24.13 at 9:35 am

How recent are your observations?
A closer look at the C1 and C8 areas show me an average of 3$/sqft with some hysterical moves up to 4$/sqft at the beginning of June. After that the things cooled off.
Also you are not indicating how big are the units you refer to.

#108 Nemesis on 10.24.13 at 10:37 am

@TurnerNation/#89

“What were people doing pre-Internet?” – TurnerNation

That’s a very interesting question, TurnerNation. I’ll let Stan Sorscher unpack it for you… or to paraphrase Steven [#100]:

“We all do better when we all do better.”

[CommonDreams] – The Trillion Dollar Money Pump for the 1%

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2013/10/24

In other news “NewLessons” or ‘ShadesOfNigeria’ – business is positively ‘booming’ for Vancouver’s ‘NewestEntrepreneurs’:

[CBC] – Thieves reselling stolen gasoline in Metro Vancouver: Gas purchased with stolen credit cards sold to waiting buyers

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/thieves-reselling-stolen-gasoline-in-metro-vancouver-1.2187454

Egads! BlackMarketPetrol? FancyThat! Next thing you know, they’ll be stealing Pigeons… Oh, wait…

[CBC] – B.C. woman pleads for return of pet pigeon

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-woman-pleads-for-return-of-pet-pigeon-1.2192478

#109 TnT on 10.24.13 at 10:43 am

#92 Let’s open “The suckers of the day” series

Say hello to TnT and Realtor #1 if yu see them arround

*************

Ouch… lumping me in with a Realtor is just mean….

People are still buying and payments are still being made…

#110 young & foolish on 10.24.13 at 10:47 am

It’s much easier to bring the 3rd world to the 1st than to take the 1st world to the 3rd.

Expect more income polarization leading to a new definition of what it means to be “middle class”.

#111 Dan on 10.24.13 at 10:47 am

102 Beach Girl on 10.24.13 at 9:59 am
Well Garth, what is your take on Harper and Duffy. Who is lying? And 90K is chump change. What’s the story line?

I am sworn to secrecy. — Garth

They both are

#112 Smoking Man on 10.24.13 at 10:54 am

#102 Beach Girl on 10.24.13 at 9:59 am
Well Garth, what is your take on Harper and Duffy. Who is lying? And 90K is chump change.

What’s the story line?I am sworn to secrecy. — Garth
……….
Come on Garth
How about a cryptic message, read between the lines kind of post.

I’ll take a shot beach girl.

Duffy duck, no, more of an elmer fud, is broke. So much for a carrier In MSM.

Harpo, an empty box between the ears, who does not make a single discussion without input from the collective mind trust, who got this one wrong.

Elmer is telling the truth… Harpo following orders.

#113 ryan on 10.24.13 at 11:05 am

One hundred and thirteenth!

#114 Alberta Ed on 10.24.13 at 11:12 am

Interesting that while financial clouds gather, the MSM focus is the on-going Senate scandals. Is no one in Ottawa paying attention to the serious issues?

#115 Ogopogo on 10.24.13 at 11:24 am

#77 Son of Ponzi on 10.24.13 at 12:54 am
Garth,
You know what I love about GIC’s in an RRSP.
A good night’s sleep.

Consistently losing money to inflation would keep me up at night, not to mention the opportunity cost of letting my hard-earned moolah rot in a GID. But to each his own.

Enjoy your false sense of security.

#116 Ogopogo on 10.24.13 at 11:25 am

Oh, the previous acronym was not a typo:

GID = Guaranteed Investment Devaluation

#117 Old Man on 10.24.13 at 11:47 am

Caesar has a pattern filled with hatred and deception as has an agenda that has no consideration for its citizens or Canada; this has been known for years as Reform; power; and consolidation as his pathological destiny in life. He has no respect for the voters or members in his caucus, as they all mean nothing to a man devoid of a conscience. They are puppets to do his bidding, and if not, will be thrown under the bus like yesterdays garbage. Duffy and Wallin are leading the charge with some truthful dialogue; they need to be respected for taking a stand against the evil doers as they show courage.

#118 Grantmi on 10.24.13 at 11:47 am

#102 Beach Girl on 10.24.13 at 9:59 am

Well Garth, what is your take on Harper and Duffy. Who is lying? And 90K is chump change. What’s the story line?

I am sworn to secrecy. — Garth

What I don’t get… both Duffy and Wallin both say they’re both BROKE and can’t loose their jobs.

Tough shit! Any other PRIVATE company if they had lied or forged their expense reports would have been cause for IMMEDIATE dismissal!

Let the blade fall!! Off with their heads!

#119 Master Ioda on 10.24.13 at 11:51 am

Ben Rabidoux
Factoid of the day: Of the 20 largest Cdn metros, 8 saw MLS inventory grow at +10% y/y last month and 5 saw inventory grow at +20%
Last September, only 3 of the top 20 metros saw inventory growth over 10% and NONE saw inventory growth above 20%”

Ok apparently it is not crashing but that does not mean it is getting better. Assuming that this is a soft landing that means an extended agony which means low sales and more RE agents activity on this blog. If I think twice we should actually beg Garth to post all the garbage that he receives from RE agents because statistically that will give us a measure of how much pressure is on them these days.

BoC is telling us to be careful because a correction is possible. Now you have to put yourself in their shoes, they can’t say that a crash is coming even if they see it because that will accelerate the panic. They can not say how big is the correction for the same reasons. All they can do is to change their tone and let the people know that the market has problems.

How big are the problems? Big enough that they can be seen from BoC’s level. When they start surfacing in the media and we see them in MLS stats it is too late. At that time not event the RE industry can not hide it anymore.

It is also interesting what they say about patches of strength in the housing market. I assume that they refer to Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver.
Vancouver is a patch of stupidity IMHO.
Calgary and Toronto …it is arguable that the fundamentals for these cities are there.
Let’s say Calgary can resist longer because the prices are lower than in Toronto and the industry there is real (although heavily dependent on external demand).
Toronto on the other hand is known as a financial hub. The value of a hub resides in the traffic that passes through this hub. Traffic means IN and OUT and that means it also depends on external factors.

I am no economist and I try to use common sense logic to understand what is going on. Most of the times the work of very good analysts who go very deep into the finest details can be reduced to the very simple ideas and observations. Not having their skills and tools forces me to try to think out of the box and to look and to use my biggest advantage: fresh eyes. Many analysts are too deeply involved in what they do and they can not see the big picture anymore, hence the advantage of fresh eyes

On that line I can not ignore this list (Canadian cities by population) and the lack of correlation with what Ben is saying.

1 Toronto, Ontario 2,615,060
2 Montreal, Quebec 1,649,519
3 Calgary, Alberta 1,096,833
4 Ottawa, Ontario 883,391
5 Edmonton, Alberta 821,201
6 Mississauga, Ontario 713,443
7 Winnipeg, Manitoba 663,617
8 Vancouver, British Columbia 603,502
9 Brampton, Ontario 523,911 Brampton’s first appearance on the list.
10 Hamilton, Ontario 519,949

* Note that Mississauga is bigger than Vancouver as population … not sure about industries in each of them.

According with what Ben is saying Montreal and Ottawa are in big trouble.
Ottawa was expected.
Montreal is a surprise for me.
A common sense assumption is that where you have a big number of people they must live of something. They must make their living based on some industries and services present in that area.
Ottawa has senators. They have expenses. I get it.
But Montreal…?

If you compare Montreal and Toronto, according with this:http://www.torontocondobubble.com/2013/04/torontohousingbubble.html (see page 2) Price to income ratio for house is bigger in Toronto than in Montreal.

This makes no sense unless we are experiencing a correction which is carefully camouflaged by the people who handle the stats. (guess who are are they)

May the farce be with you!

#120 recharts on 10.24.13 at 12:01 pm

#109 TnT on 10.24.13 at 10:43 am

#92 Let’s open “The suckers of the day” series

Say hello to TnT and Realtor #1 if yu see them arround

*************

Ouch… lumping me in with a Realtor is just mean….

People are still buying and payments are still being made…

Realtor should not be an insult ! It is not my fault that the general perception is different.

I am sure they are buying

“It’s possible interest rates will go down,” said CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal, adding there’s a huge amount of mortgage debt already in the pipeline that was created when people took advantage of rates they were pre-approved for in the summer. “I’ve seen what is in the pipeline in mortgage activity and you won’t believe the numbers when it is official.”

“If we don’t get the softness we are expecting [in housing], quite frankly I think they are already talking about more restrictions,” said Mr. Tal, adding that would be the only option to slow the housing market if Ottawa is reluctant to raise rates.

#121 Nemesis on 10.24.13 at 12:03 pm

Well!… it’s not all BadNews out there… ThursdayZen for SaltyDogz and other PoliticallyInclined Ornithologists:

” [We will] break the patriarchal system with our breasts.” – Inna Shevchenko

[UK Independent] – Femen founder issues rallying cry for recruits as ‘sextremist’ organisation launches in UK

…”She warned that the new branch of activists will be “extremely provocative”, and said: “Now, more British women will be trained and prepared as sextremists. The streets of London will be occupied by our naked bodies painted with our political demands and our colourful flower crowns. Feminism is coming back on the street. Suffragettes are replaced by Femen!”…

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/femen-founder-issues-rallying-cry-for-recruits-as-sextremist-organisation-launches-in-uk-8901348.html

NoteToSelf: Clearly, the OccupyMovement was missing a vital ingredient or two.

#122 Suede on 10.24.13 at 12:08 pm

Nevermind GIC’s

Put your cash in Manulife Bank advantage account that pays 1.55% if you absolutely must…waiting for a day to use it as attack capital or to buy your wife a purse when she needs to impress her friends

You can withdraw on demand infinite times without a penalty so you can buy your gold stocks when you think the world will end every 4 months.

Compare that to no-name institutions that offer closer to 2% and the big guns that offer less.

http://www.financialpost.com/personal-finance/rates/gic-annual.html

#123 Buying Now on 10.24.13 at 12:13 pm

I am buying now especially with all this talk around me that the market is going to boom with low rates for the foreseeable future. People are saying if you can afford the monthly payment, buy now as it won’t change in the future.

My question is can I buy using a corporation with a minimal down payment using a variable mortgage? Want to offload some risk.

Thanks.

#124 Old Man on 10.24.13 at 12:14 pm

The latest polls, and your next vote in a Federal election will have ramifications upon Real Estate, Investments, and the well being of Canada; not just for you, but your kids and grandkids for decades to come.

Liberals ……………37%
Reform Party……..29%
N.D.P………………..23%
Green Party………. 5%

The wild card will be in Quebec, as that will become a make or break scenario, as the last vote became a fear vote thrown to the N.D.P. I believe Mr. Trudeau will sweep Quebec, so do not split any vote in the next Federal election, and if you want change, vote the Red Machine, as the future of Canada is at stake.

#125 Buying Now on 10.24.13 at 12:22 pm

I think the mantra now should be buy buy buy!

Inflating away debts is the only way out of this. IMO, those with the biggest RE debts will be rewarded.

#126 Mr. Frugal on 10.24.13 at 12:28 pm

There was a time when GICs were a reasonable thing to invest it – not any longer. The spread between GICs and a balanced portfolio is absurd. The days of high interest rate GICs are long gone.

#127 Spiltbongwater on 10.24.13 at 12:34 pm

How is Duffy and Whallin broke when they make over $100K per year in the upper chamber. Should we do a salary review for Senators because it seems like they are living paycheque to paycheque? Perhaps they are underpaid for what they are doing?

#128 :):( Ying Yang on 10.24.13 at 12:51 pm

#51 Smoking Man on 10.23.13 at 10:40 pm
#45 ”Callgirl” on 10.23.13 at 10:12 pm
Love your name……. My kinda girl…
You can’t invent a name like that without a description, measurements, and a restrictions statement.
Welcome to the blog

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

OMG I am going to Hollywood to tout a new TV show……
The Callgirl and the Smoking Man. Based on a true story!
Sorry Smoking Man Ive beat you to the punch on this one, my brother in Hong Kong is already creating the digital backgrounds and the Avitars for this one.

He drinks and goes into a transcended wanderlust dreaming of profit, then Callgirl shows up and the Universal Consensus Consolidator has an epic fail throwing Smoking Man into an alternate Universe where he is now God. Smoking Man has everything and anything at his whim, except Callgirl is now his evil Nemesis and she controls his sleeping mind. Smoking Man can never, never, ever sleep while she is near him.

#129 Babblemaster on 10.24.13 at 12:52 pm

“All of this is happening when you can still get a variable mortgage for 2.4% or lock up for a half-decade at a point more. Does anyone seriously believe prices and sales will romp higher because rates fail to rise, or even drop by a quarter? Cheap money didn’t save the American housing market after prices had roared above income levels. It didn’t work in Japan or Spain or Holland.” – Garth

————————————————————

I don’t know what to believe. I believed you when you said that interest rates would rise, but that hasn’t happened. All indications are that it isn’t going to happen, not for a long time. Based on the fundamentals, housing prices should have plunged a long time ago. It hasn’t happened yet. One other obvious factor keeping prices sky-high, specifically in the GTA, is massive immigration. None of those other countries mentioned had that. Cheap money has definitely helped keep this boat afloat up to now, and it may continue to do so for quite awhile. Don’t underestimate lemming power.

No immigration into the USA, or cheap rates there? I think you need to meet Mr. Google. — Garth

#130 Sol on 10.24.13 at 12:59 pm

#72 Lackey
Rental RE is unlike any other investment.
Long term commitment, illiquidity and falling prices are the big risks but, unforseen costs, trouble renters, vacancies, tied up credit and negative cash flows are all risks too. Also, it takes your time and can be stressful being a landlord.
Like any big financial commitment, run your numbers then run them again.
Things to include: Insurance, property taxes, municipal utilities (water, etc. separate from property tax), maintanence fund (for cleaning, repairs, upgrades, damages, and vacancies), and heating and electric (which you want to do because if the tenant fails to pay and the place freezes it is big damages.)
As a landlord you also have responsibilities: you have to provide a fridge, cooking appliance, running water, etc. So, you may have to purchase those things. You also have to do regular check ups on the place (to keep your insurance valid.)
After all this, a rental unit (in BC at least) is taxed higher property taxes because you can’t claim a homeowners grant if you don’t live there (and they can have ICBC check if you live there through your DL) and you have to claim the rent as income, possibly bumping you into a higher tax bracket.
On the plus side, you get some tax write-offs for an investment RE so keep you receipts.
I have a rental (u&d duplex) in a smaller centre and basically just break even (well, I put ~$300 into the equity every month, get a few write offs while the tenants essentially pay me to upgrade the place) but, I have 2.3% financing and had to do a bunch of upgrades DIY to save $$$.
I probably spent close to $20,000 to buy and upgrade as well as many evenings and weekends. On the plus side, the upgrades translate into capital gains on a sell (at zero tax if I live there at the time of sale.)
And bottom line, at the very least you have to be able to snake or replace a toilet, fix drywall, paint, and clean up other peoples messes. Having a car is essential and having a truck or decent trailer is mich better. And screen your tentants carefully.
It is also probably a good idea to keep big overdraft on the account the mortgage payments are withdrawn from. And fill in proper rental forms.
That said, I love my rental. It is part hobby, part retirement fund, part personal business. It has easily been the biggest contributor to my net worth and when it is paid off it will boost my disposable income significantly.

#131 Old Man on 10.24.13 at 1:00 pm

#118 Grantmi – you protest too much, as I for one stand tall for being not perfect, as is all part of the human condition in life. Duffy and Wallin became pawns in the game of politics which was a trap that overwhelmed them somewhat. There is a time and a place for redemption, and they need our respect, support, and encouragement for coming forward with courage that few would do. This in itself is a positive element for democracy at its finest moment.

#132 TnT on 10.24.13 at 1:07 pm

#119 recharts

“It’s possible interest rates will go down,” said CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal, adding there’s a huge amount of mortgage debt already in the pipeline that was created when people took advantage of rates they were pre-approved for in the summer. “I’ve seen what is in the pipeline in mortgage activity and you won’t believe the numbers when it is official.”

“If we don’t get the softness we are expecting [in housing], quite frankly I think they are already talking about more restrictions,” said Mr. Tal, adding that would be the only option to slow the housing market if Ottawa is reluctant to raise rates.

**********

So what….

The people will still be buying.. it’s different this time.

Get your nose out of the books and into the real world. Have a walk through any neighborhood and see all the new faces of Toronto.
It does not take a rocket scientist to see the changes that’s happening before our eyes.
In the old days immigrants came with suitcases full of clothes and they all piled into rentals.
Now they come with suitcases full of cash and they all pile into a newly bought houses and condos with multiple earners contributing to the mortgage.

This is different…. And it will save Toronto’s Real Estate from crashing (plus all the other variables that’s been proven “ad nauseam”)

#133 -=jwk=- on 10.24.13 at 1:24 pm

Good call, Ryan.

#134 recharts on 10.24.13 at 1:35 pm

#131 TnT on 10.24.13 at 1:07 pm

Garth is right, I am arguing with an entertaining device.

Your stupidity is bigger than the amount of time that I have to spend explaining you where you are wrong.
Sleep well.

PS:cases of cash and multiple earners in the same house ? Something is TnTshy in this picture.
Good bye!

#135 World According to Garth on 10.24.13 at 1:39 pm

Garth – The US is recovering so keep buying paper

Caterpillar – In Peoria, Illinois, tough news from a harbinger of the resource sector. Caterpillar said Wednesday it expects a difficult year’s coming. The world’s biggest maker of construction equipment just saw its profits, revenues and share price drop. Cat cut its forecast for sales and earnings, noting, “Orders for new mining equipment began to drop significantly in mid-212 and have continued at very low levels.”

I think I will trust one of the giants in the “real economy” as to US health not the “mc job 8 buck an hour” economy Obummer and Garth keep touting….although we appreciate Garth’s continued insights and the posting about Caterpillar – there is just too much evidence of the US’s (fake, illusion) growth VS the US’s actual stagnation. All you paper buyers, ever hear of the saying “catching a falling knife”?

#136 jazzy_gal on 10.24.13 at 1:43 pm

DELETED. Racist.

#137 Penny Henny on 10.24.13 at 1:58 pm

From Babblemaster at #128-One other obvious factor keeping prices sky-high, specifically in the GTA, is massive immigration. None of those other countries mentioned had that. Cheap money has definitely helped keep this boat afloat up to now, and it may continue to do so for quite awhile. Don’t underestimate lemming power.

No immigration into the USA, or cheap rates there? I think you need to meet Mr. Google. — Garth
——————————————————
Immigration to GTA approx 100,000 per year.
GTA population approx 6 million.
Immigration to GTA about 1.67% of the population base.

USA population 314 million.
If immigration was to equal that of GTA at 1.67% that would mean immigration of 5.24 million per year.
Actual immigration in USA is 1.03 million (2012).

Can you see a difference.
From the above example we can SEE that immigration into the GTA is at a level 500% higher than immigration into USA.

All numbers courtesy of Wikipedia.

You require a lesson in stats. — Garth

#138 gladiator on 10.24.13 at 2:16 pm

@90 TurnerNation:
Although Agenda 21 is an official UN document, I thought that the so-called “conspiracy theorists” were overreacting to its goals about cramming people into small spaces in order to “save the planet” – until my second-grader showed me her school agenda. On EVERY page, there is something written about saving the planet, pollution, recycling, keeping the planet clean etc. Now I agree with all this – it’s good to recycle and not pollute, but why push it so hard on little ones? Are they being prepared to maybe make some personal sacrifices for the goal of “kumbaya save the Earth”? Now, I pay extra-attention to what they’re being “taught” in school.

#139 Form Man on 10.24.13 at 2:32 pm

Old Man

good comments.

there is this thing called karma.
The PM is getting a schooling……….

#140 Smoking Man on 10.24.13 at 2:52 pm

#127 :):( Ying Yang on 10.24.13 at 12:51 pm

Now that’s creativity, love it….

Wish I could write like that….

#141 Tkid on 10.24.13 at 3:04 pm

Duffy and Wallin claimed primary residency expenses that were invalid. There is nothing honourable about their actions, I expect and demand both do time for their actions.

Their testimony regarding Harper is IMHO their attempt to drag as many members of the Conservative caucus into jail with them as they can manage.

If it can be proved that their was wrongdoing by others then they can do time also.

But this latest set of allegations – the big bad Prime Minister made me repay the monies creatively obtained from the taxpayer pocket – are leading me to want to re-elect Harper.

Wallin and Duffy’s conduct is disgraceful, and respect is the last thing I feel toward them.

#142 pbrasseur on 10.24.13 at 3:18 pm

Too many smartasses trying to predict interest rates, growth rates and geopolitics.

This is not investing, this is speculating.

#143 TnT on 10.24.13 at 3:20 pm

#133 recharts

#131 TnT on 10.24.13 at 1:07 pm

Garth is right, I am arguing with an entertaining device.

Your stupidity is bigger than the amount of time that I have to spend explaining you where you are wrong.
Sleep well.

PS:cases of cash and multiple earners in the same house ? Something is TnTshy in this picture.
Good bye!

*************

I think you are blinded by numbers and mad that they don’t add up to a crashing Real Estate market.

Calling me stupid and that you don’t have the time to explain is weak sauce…

Sleeping well and thanks for the entertainment.

#144 :):( Ying Yang on 10.24.13 at 3:35 pm

#139 Smoking Man on 10.24.13 at 2:52 pm
#127 :):( Ying Yang on 10.24.13 at 12:51 pm

Now that’s creativity, love it….

Wish I could write like that….

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

It’s actually quite easy to write. I took several creative writing courses while in University. They just set up the fundamentals for writing and how to find your creative zone. The creativity is a natural born obsession within every one of us. You just have to coax the storyline out of the chaos deep within the chasms of your psyche.

Think positive and if that doesn’t work then think negative, you will be surprised
what literary works have come out of great despair and mournful situations.

Best of luck :):( Ying Yang

#145 joblo on 10.24.13 at 3:46 pm

Where’s Stockwell Day?
We need him to ride in on his Seadoo in his scuba suit
and Save Canada!

#146 sciencemonkey on 10.24.13 at 3:52 pm

@137 gladiator
Does your daughter’s school agenda mention population control as an effective way of protecting the planet?

#147 sheane wallace on 10.24.13 at 4:03 pm

Currencies will be destroyed.
So will savers.

Stocks will rise as well as commodities/farmland.
Everything else will go down the drain.

#148 Old Man on 10.24.13 at 4:12 pm

#140 Tkid – your logic amounts to a false premise, as parliamentary immunity prevails. Duffy and Wallin in my opinion will be more than willing to go into a court of law under oath, but Caesar will not, so why? Lets have the PM take an oath in a court of law for a full shoot out, one way or another, so all cards and evidence can be put on the table. Caesar will say no way as am above the law; no special independent stuff; no court stuff; no nothing, as to take an oath cannot do because there are consequences.

#149 espressobob on 10.24.13 at 4:12 pm

In case anyones interested ‘iShares’ has an event Nov. 16 at the ‘allsream centre’ in Exhibition place. (CNE).

Introduction to ETF’s is the theme. See Ya there.

https://event-wizard.com/ETFIntroduction-2013/0/welcome/

#150 Toronto_CA on 10.24.13 at 4:15 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canadian-boomers-want-to-stay-in-their-homes-as-they-age-1.2224171

“An RBC survey released Thursday found that 83 per cent would choose staying at home with care as needed.”

I’m not sure where these broke boomers without savings are going to find money to fund home care, nevermind feed themselves if they aren’t going to sell and downsize. CPP & OAS alone aren’t going to replace much of their income when they retire and grow old.

#151 Smoking Man on 10.24.13 at 4:19 pm

#137 gladiator on 10.24.13 at 2:16 [email protected] TurnerNation:

Although Agenda 21 is an official UN document, I thought that the so-called “conspiracy theorists” were overreacting to its goals about cramming people into small spaces in order to “save the planet” – until my second-grader showed me her school agenda. On EVERY page, there is something written about saving the planet, pollution, recycling, keeping the planet clean etc. Now I agree with all this – it’s good to recycle and not pollute, but why push it so hard on little ones? Are they being prepared to maybe make some personal sacrifices for the goal of “kumbaya save the Earth”? Now, I pay extra-attention to what they’re being “taught” in school.
…………….

That’s only scratching the surface. I could write book.
Teacher are so stupid, they actually believe what they teach.

A dumb down robot, programing an new generation of dumb down robots.

Home School them till grade 10

#152 Penny Henny on 10.24.13 at 4:26 pm

Who is buying homes in the US of A.
Not the people living in them.
“When financing became difficult, that pushed the entire lower tier of buyers into rentals,” Luesse said. “They either don’t have the down payment or they don’t have the credit score.”

So why does big money want to be landlords?
because of the MONEY!!!!
http://business.financialpost.com/2013/10/24/the-little-guy-cant-win-u-s-families-stuck-renting-as-big-investors-pay-cash-to-snap-up-homes/

#153 recharts on 10.24.13 at 4:49 pm

#142 TnT on 10.24.13 at 3:20 pm
I think you are blinded by numbers and mad that they don’t add up to a crashing Real Estate market.

Calling me stupid and that you don’t have the time to explain is weak sauce…

Sleeping well and thanks for the entertainment.

no you don’t think.you believe you think. you are reciting the stupid mantras of your industry
somebody who thinks can not put together cases of money and multiple income earners in the same house.

Now they come with suitcases full of cash and they all pile into a newly bought houses and condos with multiple earners contributing to the mortgage.

So no, I am not blinded by numbers I am muted by your stupidity and lack of logic. The above example is an argumentation that we hear from your kin.
There is nothing more stupid than to believe that immigrants come here with cash to buy condos and to live in them.
SFH market is apparently fine and we do not have numbers to show problems there. Not yet. No other than low sales. Just wait.
For Condos the situation is different. The disaster is slowly taking form and soon we are going to see the picture. Montreal and Ottawa thanked months ago, now they are in trouble. I believe the next is Toronto.

So don’t say that we don’t have numbers and they do not add. How come that your immigrants don’t buy condos in the above mentioned cities ? Or are you telling me that their biggest dream is to come to Canada and live 2-3 families in the same SFH?

Piles of cash and multiple income earners paying the same house.
Phew! The stupidity of the herd and their numbers is just discouraging

#154 Devore on 10.24.13 at 5:00 pm

#129 Sol

On the plus side, the upgrades translate into capital gains on a sell (at zero tax if I live there at the time of sale.)

You most certainly cannot. Maybe you can DIY a leaky faucet, but leave tax law to the professionals.

#155 Herb on 10.24.13 at 5:00 pm

#113 Ryan,

let me be the first (and so far only one) to congratulate you on your accurate call. That makes you the champ of the firsters, with all that title entails.

Now how are you at calling markets?

#156 Victor V on 10.24.13 at 5:02 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/retirement-rrsps/most-boomers-want-to-stay-in-own-homes-during-retirement-poll-finds/article15045330/

“Making the decision to leave the family home is never an easy one and there is even more to consider when the move is prompted by changes in health,” said Audrey Miller, managing director of Elder Caring Inc., a geriatric care management company.

“The good news is there are so many options now available, from condos and seniors’ apartments – for those who may be finding the maintenance of their home to be a challenge – to supportive retirement residences and long-term care facilities that offer various levels of support and medical care.”

====================

Tidal wave coming.

#157 recharts on 10.24.13 at 5:29 pm

@#142 TnT on 10.24.13 at 3:20 pm

And hey ..at least for Toronto I have plenty of numbers and my frustration lies into the fact the we are not told the whole story here …so bleep bleep !

#158 omg on 10.24.13 at 5:51 pm

For all you doom and gloomers that point to Caterpillar’s latest earning as a predicator of the next world recession.

SORRY you will be so DISAPPOINTED (ONCE AGAIN).

To put things into a perspective that spans more than 12 weeks.

CAT’s sales for 2013 will be a bit less than 2012 but about the same as 2011 sales, 35% higher than 2010 sales and 90% higher than 2009. 2013 sales are even 35% higher than highest pre-recession levels (2006).

Moral of the story – US economy still moving ahead nicely and nobody will even remember this a year from now.

#159 Nemesis on 10.24.13 at 7:08 pm

@JobLo/#144

http://tinyurl.com/nfgz92h

[NoteToSelf: BatesMotelRedux? Definitely worth pitching to Paramount – but does he like taxidermy? The original was wrapped for [1960] USD$806,947 and ultimately achieved a BoxOffice of USD$50,000,000. Hmmm. WhyNot!? Stockwell’s much scarier than Perkins on his best day!…]

#160 Tony on 10.24.13 at 7:12 pm

Re: #157 omg on 10.24.13 at 5:51 pm

I’ve been to most of the major malls in most of the American cities recently and believe me America is not moving ahead nicely.

You are so full of it. — Garth

#161 TNT on 10.24.13 at 7:15 pm

#152 Rechart

Dude you seem recharted

Have a nap…

#162 live within your means on 10.24.13 at 7:35 pm

I got scammed today. Thankfully for only $12.00. I was on a cooking website that I visit often & they had an add for a product which I ordered. Then I checked it out & it was a scam. I could have lost a few hundreds of $$. I immediately called my bank & they locked my visa. I’ll have to go to my branch tomorrow & get a new visa/debit card tomorrow.

Then I’ll go to Costco & speak to the Mgr. who buys meat. I bought a vac pack of filet mignon for $75.+. I was disgusted with the amount of fat I had to remove. I bagged it up & we weighed it. We paid $14.80 for the fat. I’ve bought filet mignon many times at Costco but never had to remove so much fat. I’ll be taking the bag of fat when I speak to the Mgr.

tthamkfully

#163 jess on 10.24.13 at 7:39 pm

speaking of new lessons?

Economics students aim to tear up free-market syllabusUndergraduates at Manchester University propose overhaul of orthodox teachings to embrace alternative theories

Multiple-choice and maths questions dominate the first two years of economics degrees, which Earle said meant most students stayed away from modules that required reading and essay-writing, such as history of economic thought. “They think they just don’t have the skills required for those sorts of modules and they don’t want to jeopardise their degree,” he said. “As a consequence, economics students never develop the faculties necessary to critically question, evaluate and compare economic theories, and enter the working world with a false belief about what economics is and a knowledge base limited to neoclassical theory.”

http://www.post-crasheconomics.com/

#164 jess on 10.24.13 at 7:48 pm

smoking man said , “A dumb down robot, programing an new generation of dumb down robots. ”

see PRACE

#165 tkid on 10.24.13 at 7:59 pm

* your logic amounts to a false premise, as parliamentary immunity prevails *

Not so. Senators before Duffy and Wallin have served time for this type of offense.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/08/11/raymond-lavigne-prison-sentence_n_3734133.html

I am glad we have ‘Caesar’ if he’s behind the effort to get these guys to repay their claims.

#166 Daisy Mae on 10.24.13 at 8:13 pm

#54 Son of Ponzi: “My lowly GIC did not suffer any declines in value. Protection of principal should be the prudence advice going forward.”

***************

Your interest rate isn’t keeping up with inflation…so you’re losing.

#167 Denni_Parkinsons_swimsuit on 10.24.13 at 8:26 pm


Mortgage rates are slowly going down to 1%.

Might take 3 or 4 years, but slowly rates will go down, and home prices will double.

How are the meds? — Garth

Come now,
He said ‘will’, not ‘should’.

Lots of weird stuff going around these days, what with deflation vs QE ad nauseum.

Stagnating economies, despite the obscene 85 Bill a month, could slide into a nice little white world deflationary spiral. Where are Bens bucks going? Not to mainstreet, but to bank’s capital reserves to use as speculation margin.

What are those banks going to do when deflation picks up, lend at zero to progressively non-worthy risks?

#168 Dwight on 10.24.13 at 9:00 pm

Garth: Where do you find those 2.4% variable rate mortgages? CT and BMO don’t.

#169 Old Man on 10.24.13 at 9:04 pm

#161 live within your means – I will do everything possible not to use a credit card on the web, so will phone instead if possible for trades or whatever. I had a few problems with an auto renewal, and screamed in Canada threatening a lawsuit which worked. Now had a problem in USA, so notified Visa about the fraud and they will send out a form months later; forget this all, as took them on directly with threats, and they too reversed the charges. I see no reason to freeze a credit card to get a new one, but on the web nothing is safe, so avoid this all now with phone calls, or get a special credit card with a low limit for the web only. It is imperative to know who you are dealing with, as in Canada not really a problem has can handle this, but elsewhere is a risk.

#170 Tony on 10.24.13 at 10:15 pm

Re: #129 Sol on 10.24.13 at 12:59 pm

You have to live there the whole time without any part of it rented to claim the capital gains exemption on a principle residence.

#171 live within your means on 10.25.13 at 1:27 am

#168 Old Man on 10.24.13 at 9:04 pm
#161 live within your means – I will do everything possible not to use a credit card on the web, so will phone instead if possible for trades or whatever. I had a few problems with an auto renewal, and screamed in Canada threatening a lawsuit which worked. Now had a problem in USA, so notified Visa about the fraud and they will send out a form months later; forget this all, as took them on directly with threats, and they too reversed the charges. I see no reason to freeze a credit card to get a new one, but on the web nothing is safe, so avoid this all now with phone calls, or get a special credit card with a low limit for the web only. It is imperative to know who you are dealing with, as in Canada not really a problem has can handle this, but elsewhere is a risk.
………………..

Old Man

I tried to call the co. after to cancel – no answer. Then tried their website – no longer existed. Supposedly in Laval, PQ. I too normally call a co. & place an order. Asked my bank (TD) if I could get a separate Visa for $200. limit. Min. is $500.

I just felt really stupid as I’m normally so careful.

Many years ago my DH bought something at a big box store & forgot his debit card. Cashier somehow saw his pin no. he punched in & removed $1K from his bank. DH immediately called the police but by the time they did anything the store’s tape was erased. They knew who did it, but he quit his job & couldn’t do anything so we were out 1K.

Anywho, I’m only out $12. but I’ve learned a lesson.

#172 Beach Girl on 10.26.13 at 9:42 am

Interesting comments. Gonna follow this.

#173 Doug in London on 10.26.13 at 11:51 am

Meanwhile, did you buy those REITs, bonds and preferreds months ago when they were cheap?
——————————————————–
Well of course I did! Why would any serious bargain hunter not scoop up such great deals? Utility stocks were also on sale, so I scooped up some of them also.