Data dinks

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This week realtors across the country will publish their latest stats. Most media outlets will slap on a byline and run them verbatim. And why not? This is the only source of sales and price data collected in Canada. Without what real estate boards tell us, there’d be no numbers. How would we know there was a bubble? Or a bust? To laugh, or weep?

So if the numbers are wrong, misleading or incomplete, there’s no benchmark against which to test them. And this makes it a very dangerous market. Together we have two-thirds of our net worth here, and collectively owe a trillion in mortgages to the bank. And yet all market knowledge and data we have is provided by people with a vested interest in fibbing.

In past months this blog has brought you lots of evidence of bad reporting. Double and triple listings for the same property. Year-over-year revisions of stats which are never made public. Inaccurate comparisons. Mixing of average and median numbers, plus the creation of the HPI Frankenumber to mask trending markets. The goal is to make people buy. To do that realtors remove fear and inject hope.

It’s about to happen again. More statements like this, from Toronto Real Estate Board boss Dianne Usher: “Sales were up strongly for all major home types compared to last year.  Many households have accounted for the added costs brought on by stricter mortgage lending guidelines and have reactivated their search for a home.”

But how does that square with collapsing mortgage application numbers, like this?

Monthly volume, online mortgage applications for Ontario

Hmmm. This is troubling. It’s one reason a commenter here known as “RE Charts” has given up, after labouring over heat maps which suggested official real estate board numbers were, at best, flaky. “One of the reasons why I stopped developing my blog was the lack of future,” he says, “but nobody seems to care.” But he has taken some comfort in an initiative just launched – in a flawed by interesting way – by a collection of condo and new house-pumpers.

BuzzBuzzHomes operates web sites which slobber over builders in places like Toronto and Vancouver, and hate people like me. It was a Kodak moment months ago when swarms of readers of this blog ransacked a BuzzBuzz poll asking who the most trustworthy person was in local real estate, and elected moi. Oh, the agony.

In any case, the little Buzzies have taken up the torch of crappy stats, and are asking the demi-god we know as F to clamp down on raunchy numbers. An online petition has just been started which asks the feds to ensure these things:

1. That every property sale in Canada is recorded within 30 days of its occurrence and placed on a public online database that is searchable and machine-readable.
2. That the date of record for current preconstruction/under construction units is amended to the signing date, rather than upon completion and closing of the building.
3. That the fields related to the transaction included will be: the date, the price, the address (and unit number, if applicable), the primary use of the property, the property type and the parties’ addresses.
4. That the misrepresentation of any data entered into this record is a serious, punishable offence.

Well, that’s all cool and useful. But it does nothing to cuff realtors around the ears for their own transgressions. Still, it’s a start. Actually recording every sale in the nation in a prompt fashion would allow our 42-analyst GreaterFool Research Dept., for example, to compile stats against which real estate board hyperbole could be measured. And wouldn’t that be fun?

What does bother me about the Buzzy effort (likely influenced by the Vancouver operation), however, is the overt inference that it’s foreign money screwing up Canadian real estate. “Why is foreign investment potentially worrisome?” they ask. “Foreign investment is typically categorized as “hot money,” which means it flows in and out of the country quickly depending on market conditions. This “hot money” makes the overall market incredibly volatile.”

The Buzzards get even more xenophobic with this: “This lack of data puts Canadian homeowners at risk of losing a large portion of their savings, as foreign investment volatility could have a serious impact on home demand and, consequently, prices.”

Actually, if tidal waves of foreign cash have swamped the Canadian market they’ve probably raised net worth, not put savings at risk. But that’s why foreigners are so useful. People here can do stupid and emotional things, pig out on debt, get into bidding wars and embrace risk, then blame it on some guy from Guangdong. How convenient is that?

In any case, this is the one and only online petition asking the elfin deity to clean up critical data and provide transparency in an industry where ethics went to die. Maybe you should sign.

Here it is.

BLURRY REAL ESTATE

155 comments ↓

#1 dd on 10.01.13 at 7:23 pm

Mixing of average and median numbers …
I have noticed that. One area will use avg and next median. What ever works in their favour.

#2 trololo on 10.01.13 at 7:26 pm

Seems like the petition site is down. Too many blog dogs visiting at once?

Anyhow, it appears I am first!

#3 Squatter on 10.01.13 at 7:27 pm

The answer is x = 5.
SM won’t know it he didn’t go to school :)

#4 Mike on 10.01.13 at 7:28 pm

Signed, good start … hopefully more to come

#5 Robbie on 10.01.13 at 7:29 pm

If you are a homeowner and you had to buy the house you live in…could you afford it? Many homeowners live in a house valued at $1,000,000+ (I live near Victoria/Vancouver) but if they actually had to buy it all over again (I’ll say that they have saved up a 5% down payment) could they pay the $950,000 mortgage? Most…almost all…couldn’t!

So…who do you think is going to buy your house? Not a new Buyer, they don’t have the money. Not an old Buyer, they are trying to sell their place to pay for their retirement. So, where are the Buyers going to come from for these overpriced properties??

That’s right, the only solution is a drop in price so the Buyers can afford them.

#6 ILoveChart on 10.01.13 at 7:32 pm

The chart shows online applications for pre-approvals. The labels are a little sloppy and I don’t entirely trust it. Any chance we have a chart on total mortgages approved?

Ontario accounts for 47% of national activity, which is why I chose it. — Garth

#7 Renting in Vic on 10.01.13 at 7:36 pm

Won’t happen. A facility like this would destroy the careers of about 99% of the realtors in the country. There sole business value is access to and control of data not available to the rest of us. Opening up MLS was a big hit for them but nothing compared to the rest of us being able to find comparables and price accordingly.

#8 Mr. Frugal on 10.01.13 at 7:39 pm

I’m all for transparency. Sort of like a wet T-shirt contest for real estate.

#9 Kevin Crawford on 10.01.13 at 7:40 pm

I don’t understand the implied meaning behind the CanEquity chart. This isn’t a chart showing that the NUMBER of mortgage applications has plummeted. Rather, it shows that the percentage of mortgage applications represented by online applications has fallen from 1.0% a little while ago to about 0.1% now. Well, if the total number of mortgage applications were 1000 (online applications = 10; offline applications = 990), and are now 2000 (online applications = 2; offline applications = 1998), then the decline in the percentage of mortgage applications represented by online applications falling by 90% is…BFD. Am I missing something?

#10 ILoveChart on 10.01.13 at 7:47 pm

Ontario accounts for 47% of national activity, which is why I chose it. — Garth

I’ve got no concern with using Ontario. However, this is just online pre-approvals. It is possible that total volumes increased.

Does the include online pre approval applications for all banks?

Visit the site. See for yourself. — Garth

#11 Vincent on 10.01.13 at 7:48 pm

Interesting proposition, but I’m not too hot about having a public-facing database of everybody’s house moves, ever. I dislike the tinfoil-hattery as much as the next guy, but these days I’d rather be safe than sorry.

Perhaps the database can be made more anonymous if it’s going to be readily accessible and machine-readable (data mining…)?

#12 Fed-up on 10.01.13 at 7:51 pm

Signed.

Let’s hope the numbskulls in Ottawa actually do somthing about it.

#13 pinstripe on 10.01.13 at 7:51 pm

I see the petition as a total waste of time, effort and money. Closing one loop hole will create another better loop hole. Too much regulation stimulates creativity to beat the regulation.

The real estate sector is doing whatever it must do to SELL. If it means distorting the data to achieve an objective, so be it. Purchasing a vehicle, stock, phone, groceries, etc, is not any different. It is Buyer-Beware and a buyer must do their own DD prior to either signing the dotted line or putting any money towards the product or service. There will be winners and losers.

Capitalism at its finest which is a lot better than the alternatives.

#14 Gord McCallum on 10.01.13 at 7:53 pm

For the record the graph you’re using from Canequity’s site are the number of applications THEY’RE getting from Ontario….the drop-off could be explained by a whole host of things including changes in Google’s algorithm, a focus on a different province, new website design, etc….

It’s not (necessarily) reflective of overall mortgage app volumes in Ontario. It could be, but I doubt it.

I don’t. — Garth

#15 Kilby on 10.01.13 at 7:53 pm

# 5 Robbie
So…who do you think is going to buy your house? Not a new Buyer, they don’t have the money. Not an old Buyer, they are trying to sell their place to pay for their retirement. So, where are the Buyers going to come from for these overpriced properties??
______________________________________________

Well said, exactly what I have been telling friends and realtors for years now. One has to look at the big picture and wonder who will buy these? I have 25 and 28 year olds that are doing OK but they have no delusions about owning their own homes any time soon.

#16 ILoveChart on 10.01.13 at 7:59 pm

@Kevin Crawford

I think the chart is poorly labelled. Each bar represents the percentage of the quantity displayed on the chart. Eg. Month X had 1% of the online pre approval applications that were submitted within the 10 year period of the chart.

You really get your shorts in a knot over this stuff, eh? — Garth

#17 Fed-up on 10.01.13 at 8:01 pm

#13 pinstripe on 10.01.13 at 7:51 pm

Capitalism at its finest which is a lot better than the alternatives.

———————————————————————————–

Well in that case, I suppose we should allow every industry distort facts and stats (ie stock market, auto industry, medicine, bond market) and go back to the days of the travelling snake oil salesman.

#18 Smoking Man on 10.01.13 at 8:02 pm

#3 Squatter on 10.01.13 at 7:27 pm
The answer is x = 5.
SM won’t know it he didn’t go to school :)
………………………………………………….
So true I can’t even speel “Pythagorean theorem”

Buy I sure as hell can sell ;)~ < attempt at art.

Its simple bubble head, look at mls.ca,
you see more listings that normal in your hood prices will go down , don't, see anything for sale like in Long Branch, south of lakeshore party like its 1929.

Supply and Demand everything else is noise…..

#19 CowPoke on 10.01.13 at 8:05 pm

Landcor Data Corporation has all the information you need for BC real estate via land titles.

About the 1 Trillion?!

There is less than 80 billion in physical cash and gold so the balance is in some ones imagination.

#20 Liquid on 10.01.13 at 8:15 pm

50 signature so far, not a bad start. Will probably be a lot higher by tomorrow morning. I’m usually a big fan of transparency, especially if it’s in the best interest of the public. But I’m hesitant to mandate more transparency in private transactions. I agree with most of the ideas set out in the petition but not all. Maybe I’m misunderstanding point number 3, but I don’t like the idea of making the personal addresses of the buyer and seller available for the world to see. I feel like that’s an unnecessary invasion of privacy. If the purpose is to determine if buyers are foreign or local, maybe we should just keep it simple and leave it at that :)

#21 Devore on 10.01.13 at 8:29 pm

Today’s picture: now that’s out of the box thinking.

#22 renters rule on 10.01.13 at 8:29 pm

I agree that you have to be careful when using the online applications data. I work at a bank (not in the top 6); our company is winding down the broker channel for both mortgage originations and deposits (margins are too slim to justify the middle man for the minimal market reach improvement). So, switch in channel focus COULD be contributing to the online origination drop off.

However, I also believe though that sales are a lot lower than they are being presented by the cartel.

#23 pinstripe on 10.01.13 at 8:31 pm

#17 Fed-up

Well in that case, I suppose we should allow every industry distort facts and stats (ie stock market, auto industry, medicine, bond market) and go back to the days of the travelling snake oil salesman.

————————————————————

What makes you think that we are immune from the snake oil salesman? Have you watched any TV commercials lately? Would a senator, politician, banker put a little twist on a story? No snake oil salesmanship there, eh?

#24 AprilNewwest on 10.01.13 at 8:36 pm

Re petition when I click on Province it’s all US provinces that show up.

#25 Kilt on 10.01.13 at 8:38 pm

That chart doesnt show collapsing mortgage applications. The y-axis indicates a percentage of mortgages applied for online. That just means more people are visiting the bank to apply for a mortgage. You might assume this leads to less applications, but that could be an inaccurate assumption.
Kilt.

#26 carpe diem on 10.01.13 at 8:39 pm

Did not sign. The site has no privacy statement that our personal info will only be used for the petition.

They do not state they won’t resell my info to some third party.

#27 ripped on 10.01.13 at 8:39 pm

That mortgage chart was from a link posted on this blog a few days back if I remember. It had all the provinces on it.

It came from the source site. — Garth

#28 J. Girn on 10.01.13 at 8:42 pm

I signed the petition!

#29 Canadian Watchdog on 10.01.13 at 8:47 pm

K first of all, I don't know why their letter is being addressed to F who would view more transparency (market sensitive data) as a potential risk to i) home valuations under Canada Mortgage Bonds and Mortgage Backed Securities ii) marked-to mark mortgage assets held on deposit and non-deposit institutions and, MBS overcollateralization measures iii) CMHC asset values, insurance and guarantees in force. F won't risk it, so that's a dead end.

I would suggest our Attorney General, but he's already Agenda 21ed with Sustainable Development (on the left) and an active YMCA participant, who is a big supporter of the United Nations, the people who want you to walk everywhere, shop and eat with corporate brands and live in micro-condos so small that you want to get out and walk more. So that's already corrupt.

The only hope is to file complaints via the Competition Bureau's online form, who unfortunately already tried to break the RE monopoly, but was unexpectedly jousted when push came to shove.

But, as RE Charts stated, "nobody seems to care." Correct. Why would the 70% who own homes favor a policy that could potentially send the market down along with the value of their homes? That's why Buzz Buzz's call for transparency is a farce and, I won't be surprised if the ex-BMO Financial Services Manager, Kiyoko Fujimura, now VP of Buzz Buzz Homes follows up with some academic paper (think Genworth and Conference Board) proving to non-howeowners (the 30% left)  that foreign investors are a myth and market conditions are stable. So buy a home or condo before you get priced out.

That's all I have to say about that.

#30 Angryman127 on 10.01.13 at 8:52 pm

Ah there you go again Garth…..xenophobia, racial intolerance, it’s just so unCanadian!!!

Listen up….if what is happening in Vancouver was happening in Ottawa there might be some hunger to slay the sacred cow of multiculturalism.

Let me send you a drivable tour of Vancouver that might open your mind to what your eyes will see.

Yes, you can spot them foreigners without even slowing down. Handy they come in colours, isn’t it? — Garth

#31 espressobob on 10.01.13 at 8:54 pm

#21 Devore

Hypotenuse? The side of a right triangle opposite the right angle? Just a little humor. I forgot ‘Trig’.

#32 Scalgary on 10.01.13 at 8:57 pm

Signed Garth..:hope truth comes out soon…

I wish someone tracks number of land titles registered every month!

#33 Fed-up on 10.01.13 at 9:07 pm

@#23 pinstripe on 10.01.13 at 8:31 pm

—————————————————————————————————-

I’m well aware the world is just full of scammers, no doubt. But perhaps we can do our part to stop some of them rather than just throwing our hands up in the air.
Don’t you agree eh?

#34 timmy on 10.01.13 at 9:14 pm

“What does bother me about the Buzzy effort (likely influenced by the Vancouver operation), however, is the overt inference that it’s foreign money screwing up Canadian real estate.”

It is quite obvious foreign money has had a huge effect on Vancouver prices, there is plenty of anecdotal evidence. All tradespeople I talk to in Vancouver think it is, and you haven’t been able to prove it is not. It would be so easy for the government to track this but they don’t, and it is obvious why they don’t.

#35 Maybe on 10.01.13 at 9:17 pm

The problem with drawing conclusions from the chart is that CanEquity’s business may be down for other reasons other than fewer overall pre-approvals. I tried to get a pre-approval and they didn’t return my call for a week.

#36 Yuus bin Haad on 10.01.13 at 9:20 pm

Damn those African despots!

#37 recharts on 10.01.13 at 9:25 pm

Garth ..thanks, many thanks for helping with that

When I started compiling my stats I had no idea if what LAWRENCE M. DALE does is OK or not or even more, if compiling stats based on his data is OK from copyright perspective. It should be but…you never know. That is why I prefered to remain anonymous.

Dale is doing what he is doing because of his open conflict with TREB/CREA/MLS via zoocasa.ca From what I remember they sued him over some issues with copying data from their site to his. That was settled and now what I suspect he does is to distribute data via email like any other RE agent. It will be difficult to stop him from doing that since he found this hole in their setup.
However knowing how tolerant the authorities of this country are with monopoles I have no doubt that TREB will stop him sooner or later.

If I could only find a data source that would be reliable on long term I would probably resume my work with the stats in the near future.

#38 Mr. Reality on 10.01.13 at 9:25 pm

Meanwhile south of the border, mortgage applications are plunging, stock market are forming the final shoulder on a classic topping formation, margin debt is at a multi-year high and the morons in change of the country couldn’t even attempt to agree on anything…..

73% of our exports head south to a country that is a mess. American recovery?

Mr. R.

#39 X on 10.01.13 at 9:27 pm

This is a great opportunity for F to crack down on the RE cartels, the housing market and household debt levels.

By having the RE boards responsible for the propaganda they spit out, he can make it look like the RE boards were the bad guys in all this if the Re market takes a crap.

#40 Smoking Man on 10.01.13 at 9:31 pm

#33 Fed-up on 10.01.13 at 9:07 pm
@#23 pinstripe on 10.01.13 at 8:31 pm

—————————————————————————————————-

I’m well aware the world is just full of scammers, no doubt. But perhaps we can do our part to stop some of them rather than just throwing our hands up in the air.
Don’t you agree eh?
………………………………………….

You guys crack me up. What is wrong with you children,

No scammers = no jobs. You would be picking tomatoes.

It’s the salesmen out foxing the purchasing manger that puts food on your table.

It’s our trade balance sheet as a nation, Sell more buy less is good.

Have some respect.

Learn to sell and prosper……or be a dog your whole life, dreaming of a revolution.

Please,

Canadians leave their fists in the rink.

#41 Randy Macho Man Savage on 10.01.13 at 9:34 pm

#26 carpe diem on 10.01.13 at 8:39 pm
Did not sign. The site has no privacy statement that our personal info will only be used for the petition.

They do not state they won’t resell my info to some third party.
————————

I signed, but under a fake name :)

#42 Randy Macho Man Savage on 10.01.13 at 9:36 pm

So many decisions these days. To have a variable rate mortgage, fixed. Sell the house and rent… Also trying to figure out which tastes better – a tuborg or bud light.

#43 Infused with Opiates on 10.01.13 at 9:42 pm

Here is the page. Fill your boots

http://www.canequity.com/stats/canadian-mortgages/ontario/index.phtm

#44 Nemesis on 10.01.13 at 9:53 pm

Egads! One hardly knows where to start… Perhaps it’s the Bordeaux?

Let’s begin by FleshingOut WatchDog’s wry
‘aspersions’…

YMCA? You PitBull, you! Apart from conjuring up some rather entertaining reminiscences of the VillagePeople [PersonalFavourite? – InTheNavy!] – the implied allusions to SteamBathCulture fall rather short of “l’actualité”…

To wit; Le Procureur général du Canada’s [sound’s rather better EnFrancais, et non – if a TadNaughty?] RealBackStory is so much stranger than fiction… to quote TheOmniscientWiki: “…married to Nazanin Afshin-Jam an Iranian-Canadian model, singer, and human rights activist, and a former Miss World Canada.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_MacKay

Truly food for thought. I wonder what Michel [InterimDirector of SomethingOrOther] thinks about that?

@BeachGirl/PriorThread

PoshWheels. Two weeks ago – in the midst of some rather entertaining fieldwork – I had the GoodFortune to dine with a corpulent ScotsMan [and MainSqueeze] who fronts a rather large PE interest in BC’s automotive financing universe… Here’s TheSkinny: most of the DetroitIron is moving on credit [loan and/or lease]. And by most, we’re talkin’ HighNineties. The 0% deals are typically rejected by most consumers by virtue of the fact that the obligatory 36 month repayment schedule and concomitant BiWeeklys are “TooHigh” ByFar. The majority of purchases – I am reliably informed – are financed at considerably HigherRates – over periods typically ranging from 72-84 months. Yes. You heard that right. SixToSevenYears. After hearing that, I didn’t have the heart to ask whether the buyers had to do more than FogAMirror to qualify [perhaps I didn’t really want to know?].

Oh yes… our MagninamousHost… “the overt inference that it’s foreign money screwing up Canadian real estate.”

All I can say about that [OnLine] is… There are actually empiricals. But they’re not in the PublicDomain.

Right. I think that’s more than enough. Which, doubtless, is probably what the Habs are thinking tonight.

PS – BonusZen for SaltyDogs who’ve forgotten their TrigMnemonics, “Some Old Hippy Caught Another Hippy Trippin’ On Acid” – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trigonometry#Mnemonics ]

#45 Raymond Kwok and Thomas Kwok on 10.01.13 at 9:55 pm

Raymond Kwok and Thomas Kwok

These guys created the bubble in Vancouver BC

#46 FATHER on 10.01.13 at 9:55 pm

all this talk about ham buying everything is a myth RE cartel made up trust me I’m in trades have employees doing projects. Just because they are Asian canadian and don’t speak English and are buying for kids or themselves, yes couple of years back off shore buyers were buying quite a bit not now it is you and oh so lonely you buying and selling each other’s houses to each other

#47 Smoking Man on 10.01.13 at 9:56 pm

Why I’m I a regular on this pathetic blog, I want to help idiots, no where are there more negative, defeatist jealous oids. wishing for there peers doom. who’s only crime is they own real estate.

Always blaming others for there imagined hardship. You got it good here compared to a kid living in the Gaza strip , or kid in a village in Nigeria.

I’m nice because I’m hedging just in case of the extremely remote, hell impossibility their is a god, but I am getting older, and abuse the hell out of my body
Bit worried.

I noticed my dad as he got older, his brain shrunk , he found god, then his brain shrunk more, forgot god and discovered lotto tickets, and now he just mumbles in his own made up language at 97, Still love him, smiles all the time. What is going threw that coconut. I want some.

That might happen to me.

One day I might end up at the pearly gates, pretending to be sorry, selling my good deads, all the while thinking how to bump off this old bearded guy and take his chair.

I’m a smoking Man

#48 Inglorious Investor on 10.01.13 at 10:03 pm

The real estate business is pure bull$H!†. I’ve personally known enough realtors and brokers, and have dealt with enough of them first-hand to know that this industry is as crooked as a dog’s hind leg. The ones I am close to admit it.

You can’t even trust the honest ones, because when a system itself is corrupt, it corrupts everyone in it.

But then again, nothing is what it seems…

Today, I learned that Ken Taylor, the former Canadian ambassador to Iran, who is celebrated as a hero for his key role in the “Canadian Caper” during the Iranian hostage crisis, was a CIA agent.

Taylor glosses over this fact by saying that he reported to Ottawa, not Washington. While this may be true, does anyone else find it disturbing that Canadian diplomats and civil servants work for the intelligence services of what are technically foreign governments?

It makes you wonder, just who is Stephen Harper working for?

#49 Don on 10.01.13 at 10:04 pm

#15 Kilby on 10.01.13 at 7:53 pm

# 5 Robbie
So…who do you think is going to buy your house? Not a new Buyer, they don’t have the money. Not an old Buyer, they are trying to sell their place to pay for their retirement. So, where are the Buyers going to come from for these overpriced properties??

**********
“Who is going to buy your house”, once said is a thought provoking experience in a homeowner’s thought process, but sadly before realization is achieved eyes glaze over and avert a the cold hard truth. Your house is only as much as somebody is willing to pay and sooner or later only the smart buyers are left. ______________________________________________

Well said, exactly what I have been telling friends and realtors for years now. One has to look at the big picture and wonder who will buy these? I have 25 and 28 year olds that are doing OK but they have no delusions about owning their own homes any time soon.

#50 Canadian Watchdog on 10.01.13 at 10:11 pm

Want HAM data? Then read their news.

September 30, 2013 – Translated: Eleven reproduction Vancouver real estate buyers start fast hot Chinese bid Shuang

Greater Vancouver Regional District "Golden Week" real estate boom may come back, this wave of schedule more than 80, or even 90 after the young buyers, many are still students, preparing to apply for "Canadian experience class" immigrants, such as parents take advantage of Pian Golden Week holidays to complete the Greater Vancouver housing transaction procedures, and such young buyers usually start faster, bigger parties. 

#51 meslippery on 10.01.13 at 10:11 pm

So if the numbers are wrong, misleading or incomplete, there’s no benchmark against which to test them.

Well I can benchmark it (I am 53) making the same
wage as I did when I bought my house.
Now it 300% more,same with gasoline.
My kids are making less or the same as I did.

Can someone tell me how this can work?

#52 F reads scripts, not petitions on 10.01.13 at 10:14 pm

-Stats and data?
What good is that, women buy the houses and they don’t understand or care about stats and data.

What’s the difference between a wife, a lover and a prostitute?

The prostitute says: ‘faster… faster..faster’

The lover says: ‘slower… slower..slower’

The wife says: ‘ beige…… I think I’ll paint the ceiling ….beige.’

#53 Goldie on 10.01.13 at 10:26 pm

Garth,

I suspect that you enjoy occasionally riling some of us up by denying that that foreign (Chinese) investment is affecting real estate prices in places like Vancouver. It definitely works in my case :)

#54 A Nightmare On Bay Street on 10.01.13 at 10:33 pm

The answer is : X will go up forever.

Because we are Canadians and here, algebra do not apply.

#55 juno on 10.01.13 at 10:36 pm

# 5 Robbie
So…who do you think is going to buy your house? Not a new Buyer, they don’t have the money. Not an old Buyer, they are trying to sell their place to pay for their retirement. So, where are the Buyers going to come from for these overpriced properties??
______________________________________________

Don’t you worry your pretty little heads over this!!!

The Preditory Lenders will make it happen. Cash back loans. Just pay the interest, a gazillion year amortization period so you can past the load to 100’s of generations later. Place a price tag on you children. Yeah each child is worth a least 100,000 dollars as an asset price.

The banks can make it happen, because the freakin tax payers are on the hook for it. Not them!!!

#56 juno on 10.01.13 at 10:42 pm

Raymond Kwok and Thomas Kwok

These guys created the bubble in Vancouver BC
==========
Hey don’t blame these guys it was F and C which made it happen. And CREA and the media.

Without low interest loans, without CMHC and government backing this would never happen.

These guys are just playing the system and same with the banks. And you know these guys are right, the government is running a ponzi scheme which is creating a bubble, they are just players in the game

#57 David Lee on 10.01.13 at 10:43 pm

@#30 and #34

Agreed; see:

http://www.journalofcommerce.com/article/id56144

But will this help?:

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2013/07/06/canada-loses-luster-as-destination-for-corrupt-chinese-cash/

#58 Nosty in Knickersville on 10.01.13 at 10:43 pm

#47 Smoking Man — Bit worried.” — Worry not, as it is a gorgeous trip.

Mom (89) was told less than a month ago she had terminal pancreatic cancer, and didn’t have long to go.

When Garth writes his next post tomorrow (Wed.), Mom will have moved on to the next worlds, leaving her clay temple behind. Then she will meet all her friends and relatives, no older than 30.

Life always continues from one adventure to the next.

#59 Mike T. on 10.01.13 at 10:45 pm

Randy Macho Man Savage

did you know you were once a legit baseball prospect?

http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/randy-macho-man-savage-played-in-cardinals-reds-systems?urn=mlb,wp7137

if there is a comment more irrelevant to the topic at hand I would like to see it!

#60 Freedom First on 10.01.13 at 10:45 pm

The “Truth” always comes out. No exception. Does not matter whether you are a: cyclist, sprinter, baseball player, RE promoter, or whatever you do for a living. The unfortunate reality is that many citizens worldwide end up getting bamboozled before the truth comes out instead of putting in the effort to learn and know the truth before it becomes unable to hide anymore.

Simplified version: “100% in one asset is financial insanity”. No exception. And believe this, this one statement is enough to drive the promoters of any one asset into a homicidal rage. Don’t believe it? Well, Garth has already shared some of his hate mail to him with us, and Garth himself would not quote the messages to him, but would only say that the mail included things like doing bad things to all of his orifices. I don’t like it, or think it is very nice, however, I am very glad they are reading the truth about themselves on his blog. As a matter of fact, I love it:)

#61 Bob Rice on 10.01.13 at 11:16 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/10/01/u-s-government-shutdown-why-its-a-good-thing-for-investors/

#62 Ben on 10.01.13 at 11:41 pm

Did Canadians Learn Nothing
from Our Housing Bubble?

By Harry S. Dent Jr., Senior Editor, Survive & Prosper

Dear Survive & Prosper Reader,
Most Americans aren’t aware that Canadian home prices continued to increase after our 2006 real estate crash. There are reasons for that.

First, Canada didn’t have the subprime crisis in lending like we did. Households there had to put up substantial deposits and show real proof of income. Imagine that!

Second, Canada has had higher immigration rates than us since the early 1970s, and more so since 2006. This has caused households to grow at 1.4% since 2006, double the rate in the U.S., which is 0.7%.

But here’s the rub!
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The markets have reached dizzying levels. But most investors have no idea why. Is the economy that strong? Have wages gone up? Are you richer? Are people really spending that much more money? One famed economic forecaster says “no” – and that a “day of reckoning” could be weeks away. Details here.
Canada’s prime housing segment – age 20 to 44, which includes apartment demand from ages 20 to 26 – is now forecast to decline from 1.2% in 2012 to 0.3% in 2021. Ouch!

And worse, Canada’s household debt-to-disposable-income ratio has risen to 156% while in the U.S. that ratio has fallen to 99%. Back in 2007, the ratio for both countries was around 120%, more than double the ratios at the peak of the last great bubble in 1929.

The reality is Canada’s household debt has doubled from 78% in 1990. It is now 57% higher than in the U.S., despite our continued over-indebtedness.

That means that even if the growth of the prime-buying segment were not to slow dramatically in the years ahead, such debt ratios would wreck the party sooner rather than later.

The chart below tells the real story.

See larger image

Since the real-estate bubble began in early 2000, Canada’s home prices are up 133%. The U.S. property market had only gained 107% by its peak in early 2006.

Canada’s bubble has lasted longer and stretched 24% higher than ours, with home prices now 47% higher than the U.S.

And as I say – and as history proves – the bigger the bubble, the bigger the burst. Put another way, Canada’s in for some serious pain.

The most overvalued city is Vancouver and it gets that dubious distinction thanks to the wealthy Chinese immigrating there and buying condos with bags of cash, like drug dealers from Brazil are doing in Miami. Property there has gone up 152% since 2000.

Locals can’t afford the 10- or 11-times income valuations that are now slightly higher than San Francisco’s, which were at the top of the U.S. bubble before it burst. When most locals can’t afford property, that’s a bad sign.

Recall that it wasn’t the failing economy that caused home prices to start falling from 2006 forward in the U.S. It was simply prices that were so high that young, new households could no longer afford them.

Young people (age 27 to 41) buy houses. Older people sit in them! That’s why the dramatic slowdown in Canada’s 20 to 44 year-old population is tolling Canada’s property market’s death knell.

If the next global financial crisis starts in early 2014, as I forecast, then Canada’s real estate is cruising for a bruising very soon.

So Canadians, beware!

Since your real estate is at new highs, in the coming years it will fall much further than the crash we experienced in the U.S., even if it never quite falls as low as we do.

The seven Canadian cities that have appreciated the most since 1999 – and which face the most pain ahead – are in order:

#7: Montreal
#6: Toronto
#5: Vancouver
#4: Calgary
#3: Edmonton
#2: Quebec City

And at #1 – the city that has appreciated the most in Canada since 1999 – we have: Winnipeg.

The higher the real estate prices in these cities, the harder they’re likely to fall.

Vancouver’s pending property collapse could trump them all in the end thanks to its extreme valuations.

Don’t be like most consumers and economists that just extrapolate past trends into the future. Listen to people like us that understand bubbles and cycles from tirelessly and obsessively studying them throughout history.

So to answer my question – did Canadians learn anything from our real estate bubble: absolutely not.

I’ll say it again: Canadians, beware!

Harry

#63 Nemesis on 10.01.13 at 11:53 pm

Apologies. MyBad. FeelingNostalgic…

[Reuters] – Analysis: From Syria to South China Sea, navies cruise back into vogue

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/30/us-military-navy-analysis-idUSBRE98T0K920130930

Never mind the Strategic… Cuz’, when you get RightDown to it… “l’actualité” is so much more exciting!

http://youtu.be/InBXu-iY7cw

[NoteToGT: When the Pentagon authorized access to the Fleet for that little gem… they really didn’t know who the VillagePeople were. So to speak. I s**t you not. Isn’t life grand?!]

#64 Angryman127 on 10.02.13 at 12:13 am

I see by your smarmy reply that you assume opposition to multiculturalism and immigration is founded upon ignorance and racism…so let me put it in a way that might not upset your Liberal sensitivities.

The rate of change brought about by globalisation is historically unprecedented. Not only is the housing market wildly distorted in Vancouver, but traditional Canadian culture of the last 100 years is disappearing in large parts of the city. The movement of people and capital is dramatically affecting some Canadians just not the boomers, so nobody is going to do or say anything that will make a difference.

#65 ARealtor on 10.02.13 at 12:22 am

Hear, hear Smoking Man (#40,#47)

It’s one thing to discuss/debate the economy but to wish financial doom on your friends and neighbours is just vile!
Careful what you wish for.

Great work Garth. You bring out the best in people.

What a ridiculous blog this is lol

#66 wrong appproach on 10.02.13 at 12:40 am

Data you need is mostly at CMHC already. They have all property info/ amortization rate etc. unless it’s cash purchase or has no insurance.

I don’t think I have to report how much I paid if I pay cash or just don’t need gov’t involvement. Getting access to CMHC aggregate data should be the action item.

#67 angela on 10.02.13 at 1:15 am

Postal Service defaults on $5.6 billion payment for retiree health benefits … I bet them retirees dont think there is a recovery, ah yes they used it to fund the government till they shut down on monday oh well time for dancing with the stars
money.cnn.com/2013/10/01/news/economy/postal-service-default/index.html?iid=HP_LN

#68 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 10.02.13 at 1:21 am

@#13 Pinstripe
Sorry pinstripe but ‘capitalism at its “finest” doesnt include deceptive sales figures, deceptive marketing strategies and a compliant media bought and paid for.
These ruthless Real estate “shysters” have had it all their way for far far too long.
Time to yank the reigns in and haul these cowboys in and start putting “fences” up.
…and no matter how much bee-yatching I hear from Realtors…..They have done it to themselves.

I voted on that site and I hope more people here do the same.

Lickspittle politicians have been in the back pockets of people like this for far far too long.

Time for Realtors to have the political “carpet” yanked out from under them and join th ereal world of Capitalism.
ie. FAIR competition

#69 Benchwarmer on 10.02.13 at 1:30 am

My neighbour here in Calgary finally sold his house after a year on the market, lowest priced listing on the street. Everything else is listed at a over million and his was just over $600K.
Must have been some crazy yearlong bidding wars going on. (Sarcasm)

#70 Homie-P on 10.02.13 at 1:31 am

Signed

#71 Jane 24 on 10.02.13 at 2:08 am

I don’t know why the Cdn govts don’t publish their monthly stats via the land transfer system. Lazy sods.

Here in England we have two types of RE monthly stats. Remember that we don’t have RE Boards or MLS either. Probably why selling your house thru an agent averages 1.5%.

The Dodgy Ones – private based that everyone takes with a pinch of salt as they are in RE.

1. Halifax – large chain of RE agents publishes monthly selling price numbers.
2. Nationwide – the other really big chain of RE agent, also publishes monthly selling prices.
3. wwww.rightmove.co.uk- the biggest of the UK online RE sites, lists everything for sale from RE agent listings to on-line only listings to private seller agency listings. Note lists them all for peanuts too. Publishes monthly listing price numbers.

Or we have

The One We All trust – the Govt.

Lists the sold prices by area from the Stamp Duty (land transfer tax in your language) system. Usually is a month or two behind So why can’t the Canadian govts do the same?

Thank you for Mark Carney. He has decided to make us all happier by giving us a house price bubble.

#72 Kalergie on 10.02.13 at 2:12 am

Canadian is a haven for HAM? Compare the conditions in Canada to, say, Dubai. No capital gain taxes, no taxes on rental income, no questions where the money is from, low RE fees, Residence status for you and your entire family if you buy property, 365 days of sunshine and a beach right in front of the door. If I had the choice where to park my cash, Canada wouldn’t be my first. Don’t flatter yourself fellow Canadians. ;)

#73 Devore on 10.02.13 at 2:40 am

#1 The Goddard Report

Garth was a guest on The Goddard Report.
Topic: Media in Turmoil

http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2013/09/are-newspapers-an-anachronism/

From yesterday. The clip @ 2:10 is incorrect. Telus owns zero media companies, unlike Shaw, Rogers and Bell, who are building their own vertical empires.

#74 Jas Girn on 10.02.13 at 2:48 am

Smoking Man cannot spell to save his life. He reminds me of a junkie, with the way he writes.

Sir, it’s ‘through’ and not ‘threw.’

This blog would be better off without some posters like SM.

#75 Buy? Curious? on 10.02.13 at 3:28 am

Hey Garth! My neighbour sold his house last night. He said it wasn’t for asking but “pretty close” to it. He said that to do renos and waiting for a spring market was to risky considering everything going on. He’s found a place that he’s going to rent near Eglington and Don Mills and just wait it out. That’s amazing, isn’t it? The sad thing is that he probably reads this blog but is ashamed to admit it. I’m not ashamed to admit it.

“Hey World! I read the Greater Fool blog and I love it!”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cC7EMlTbpVE

#76 jj on 10.02.13 at 4:17 am

@ #47 Smoking Man on 10.01.13 at 9:56 pm

You way overrate yourself. This gen x’er is tossing the gauntlet down, you hype yourself so help yourself if your into helping the so called idiots.

#77 Frustrated Kiwi on 10.02.13 at 5:38 am

One possibility for the gap between sales and mortgage applications is that the percentage of cash buyers is going up. Before you laugh take a look at the graph for the US:
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/cash-buyers-real-estate-all-cash-buyer-percent-of-market/
“More than half of all homes sold last year and so far in 2013 have been financed without a mortgage, according to an analysis by economists at Goldman Sachs Group. The analysis estimates that around 20% of all homes sold before the housing crash were “all-cash” sales”
Astounding! Can’t say I understand it. Certainly wouldn’t know if Canada is similar.

#78 devore on 10.02.13 at 6:42 am

#77 Frustrated Kiwi

Compared US prices to Canadian ones recently? So many cash purchases in US because few traditional buyers are active. Move uppers and downers, new buyers, all buy with mortgages. Relatively more investors are buying, and they can buy because they have cash, and don’t need to qualify for a mortgage. They kept their powder dry, or at least liquid (say what). Foreigners with money see opportunity to scoop up some underpriced assets, denominated in a currency most likely to appreciate vs others.

Also, prices are lower.

#79 Smoking Man on 10.02.13 at 6:46 am

#74 Jas Girn on 10.02.13 at 2:48 am

Smoking Man cannot spell to save his life. He reminds me of a junkie, with the way he writes.Sir, it’s ‘through’ and not ‘threw.’This blog would be better off without some posters like SM.
…………….

Typically a comment worthy of a slave…
Whom ever invented through got it wrong. It’s threw.

You put far to much faith in your teachers, they got it wrong too.

Same people who told you, study hard, go to in debt, get an education and a nice cube with a 100 k salary awaits.

I study how words are invented, go to my blog, if your not to sensitive.

#80 Smoking Man on 10.02.13 at 6:56 am

Vlad sorry to hear about your mom.

#81 fancy_pants on 10.02.13 at 7:18 am

Put my John Henry on the petition. Argument I provided is lobbying was made to place factual nutritional information on food labels, how is this any different?
just want the facts, not the results after they send numbers through the RE equation of the month.

#82 Ann on 10.02.13 at 7:43 am

#41 Randy Macho Man Savage on 10.01.13 at 9:34 pm
#26 carpe diem on 10.01.13 at 8:39 pm
Did not sign. The site has no privacy statement that our personal info will only be used for the petition.

They do not state they won’t resell my info to some third party.
————————

I signed, but under a fake name :)
*******************************************
You mean you didn’t use Randy Macho Man Savage
They will never track you down now smart.

#83 jerry on 10.02.13 at 7:46 am

Even American cystal ball reader Harry Dent is worried about Canada. “Didn’t Canadians learn anything from the American housing crisis meltdown”?.

Well actully yes…but only the faithful few that came to this blog everyday.

#84 TheCatFoodLady on 10.02.13 at 7:51 am

NostyinKnickersville at post #58. Please accept my condolences. May your mother’s passing be peaceful & may you & your family find comfort in each other.

#85 Victor V on 10.02.13 at 8:03 am

It seems like everyone’s 20-something kids are moving home…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/lets-talk-investing/20130905theglobeandmailctmchristinanewberry1mykidismovinghome720p3000kbpsmp4/article14633453/

Gee, appears many underemployed, indebted 20-somethings can’t afford to buy a condo AND put food on the table.

#86 Ralph Cramdown on 10.02.13 at 8:06 am

“The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has risen 11% on average in the 12 months following a government shutdown, according to data compiled by Bloomberg on the 12 instances since 1976. That compares with an average return of 9% over 12 months.”

That’s what happens when one statistical illiteterate does an analysis and 10,000 others propagate it. There ought to be a disclaimer that says accurate to within +/- 8%, one time in three.

#87 BillyBob on 10.02.13 at 8:11 am

“#72 Kalergie on 10.02.13 at 2:12 am
Canadian is a haven for HAM? Compare the conditions in Canada to, say, Dubai. No capital gain taxes, no taxes on rental income, no questions where the money is from, low RE fees, Residence status for you and your entire family if you buy property, 365 days of sunshine and a beach right in front of the door. If I had the choice where to park my cash, Canada wouldn’t be my first. Don’t flatter yourself fellow Canadians. ;)”

Then don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

I live in Dubai. Since before the GFC. You have no idea what you’re talking about. Virtually everything you state is incorrect.

I do make tax-free income. But even so I cannot justify Canadian housing prices on Canadian wages. And that’s without the requirement for a mortgage. Hence I will not move back, but only visit.

It’s interesting how a bubble is so recognizable from outside of it, but deniable from within. And I’ve had front-row seats to a few whoppers.

#88 Ferrari321 on 10.02.13 at 8:24 am

I see you have good taste in charts Garth :)

#89 fixie guy on 10.02.13 at 8:57 am

#72 Kalergie “Don’t flatter yourself fellow Canadians. ;)”

Canada has the 11th highest immigration rate in the world, beat out by golden destinations like Qatar, Bahrain, Zimbabwe, Djibouti and Cyprus among others. A couple of years ago when the fixie and I were out for a sunny Saturday ride in Richmond I entertained myself at red lights by counting the numbers of cars passing before seeing an occupant of European descent. It was well over a hundred, the occupants weren’t all 20 and presumably didn’t live outdoors.
Citizenship doesn’t change money’s source. Housing purchased with funds earned off-shore has the same market impact regardless of the owner’s home address. It’s foreign money whether the owner is still considered foreign or not. Its effect won’t be permanent but can only be disruptive. Vancouver’s mid-Nineties peak tracking Hong Kong’s repatriation is a perfect example, though the locals still blame the NDP for what in reality was driven by population growth.

#90 BG on 10.02.13 at 9:06 am

#13 pinstripe

I see the petition as a total waste of time, effort and money. […]
********************

So you chose to use your 2 minutes by sharing your very valuable opinion with us instead of signing the petition?

A shot in the dark is better than no shot.

#91 Holy Crap Where's The Tylenol on 10.02.13 at 9:24 am

#58 Nosty in Knickersville on 10.01.13 at 10:43 pm

So sorry to hear this news, my sincere condolences to your family. Been there and done that with my mother many years ago. There are not many things in my life that I really loathe, but cancer is one of them. I’m sure she will have much enjoyment in her next life in paradise. I hope you and your family may gather together and console each other in this difficult time.

#92 george on 10.02.13 at 9:32 am

This is a great article in the post today

http://tinyurl.com/pghkunl

So basically the happy to hold all these insured mortgages in their portfolios. No risk, big returns.

#93 someone on 10.02.13 at 9:35 am

@Kalergie #72:

“f I had the choice where to park my cash, Canada wouldn’t be my first. Don’t flatter yourself fellow Canadians. ”

When people in Vancouver complain about HAM, it’s a case of Canadians flattering themselves. It’s a case of people talking about their own experiences. You have to be a true Vancouverite who has lived here your whole life to understand the discontent over HAM and Asian immigration. Half the ads for jobs on craigslist require Mandarin. There is even a push to require minimize wage McDonalds employees in Richmond to be required to speak Mandarin. The universities are being taken over by international students. In Richmond, you can’t even read the signs because they are all in Chinese. The Chinese and the Browns we deal with–they are the ones who are displaying racism. They are the ones who only want to go to Chinese businesses and hire Chinese people. White people have been taught not to discriminate. It’s the Chinese and the browns who discriminate. Big story in the news in BC right now is Black refugees from Africa working tree planting up north, suing their employer for slave like conditions and outright racial segregation. Back East you guys just assume the employer is white. No way–the employer is Brown, East Indian–they are the ones who are the most racist against Blacks. I am so sick of political correctness–it just sweeps so many uncomfortable truths under the carpet. The younger generation is waking up to the lies of political correctness–another stupid legacy of the baby boomers, the most entitled generation ever! We see the empty condos at night–we see who is buying–we hear their names and we know we are being taken over by the Chinese and the browns and being run right out of our province. This is not about flattering ourselves. There are legitimate frustrations over here regarding immigration, HAM, and the lack of integration. I totally support Quebec’s secular charter and I wish we had something like that here! I wish we had language laws requiring jobs to not discriminate against people who do not speak Mandarin! I wish English Canada had the same sense to protect its culture the way the Frenchies in Quebec do! Geez, maybe I should move to Quebec. I prefer French culture over Chinese culture so Montreal is a better fit for me than Vancouver.

#94 TnT on 10.02.13 at 9:36 am

Recipe: Canadian Real Estate Bubble

Ingredients

1 Part Government working the levers to keep an economy moving
1 Part Banking Industry with its ZIRP
1 Part Real Estate Industry with its savvy marketing
1 Part Entertainment Industry with its HGTV
1 Part HAM and General Immigration
5 Parts illiterate society

Mix Government and Banking Industry first to create the base, add Real Estate Industry with Entertainment Industry in a separate bowl as not to spoil the mixture.

Combine HAM with General Immigration with Government and Banking Industry then fold in Real Estate and Entertainment Industry. Vigorously stir this mixture into a frenzied froth and dump on equal parts illiterate society. Let soak for 2 seconds then bake for 30 years.

You can’t have any Real Estate discussion without keeping all these parts in perspective.

Enjoy

#95 someone on 10.02.13 at 9:38 am

My first sentence should have said: “It’s NOT a case of Canadians flattering themselves”

#96 maxx on 10.02.13 at 9:39 am

#7 Renting in Vic on 10.01.13 at 7:36 pm

Won’t happen. A facility like this would destroy the careers of about 99% of the realtors in the country. There sole business value is access to and control of data not available to the rest of us. Opening up MLS was a big hit for them but nothing compared to the rest of us being able to find comparables and price accordingly.

You may be right…however now, most of us have more than sheer instinct to rely on.

Caveat emptor- maximus.

#97 Raginnn on 10.02.13 at 9:44 am

U.S. and Canada are altering the way housing finance works so taxpayers aren’t stuck bearing the brunt of risks

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/10/01/housing-moves-canada-u-s-contemplate-changes-to-the-way-we-finance-housing/

#98 xdisciple on 10.02.13 at 9:45 am

Hi Nostradamus,
I just wanted to extend my sympathies and let you know that my thoughts are with you during this time of grief. – xdisciple

#99 maxx on 10.02.13 at 9:46 am

#13 pinstripe on 10.01.13 at 7:51 pm

“Closing one loop hole will create another better loop hole. Too much regulation stimulates creativity to beat the regulation.”

Agree completely with this statement.

As for the rest of your post, not so much. RE is not like buying groceries. One bad apple doesn’t have the potential to cause a lifetime of misery and DD is never, EVER water tight. I think that our governing elites could do a wee bit more to level the playing field.

#100 jess on 10.02.13 at 9:47 am

meslippery
…online lenders – 160% to 379% returns

University of California and Sequoia Capital’s $tink Finance – Forbeswww.forbes.com/…/university-of-california-and-sequoia-capitals-tink-fin…‎CachedSep 11, 2013 – Image representing Think Finance as depicted i. … $2,000 will owe $5,206 by the end of the 76-week loan term; that’s an APR of 160%.” Wow.

#101 James Perly on 10.02.13 at 10:19 am

Isn’t there room for a class action website here? I thought that’s what these things were for. Couldn’t someone sue all the boards for blatantly lying? I would think there is big money in this.

#102 jim on 10.02.13 at 10:21 am

#13

“The real estate sector is doing whatever it must do to SELL. If it means distorting the data to achieve an objective, so be it. Purchasing a vehicle, stock, phone, groceries, etc, is not any different.”

You’ve got to be kidding. There’s a reason why there is a line between puffery and misrepresentation. It’s difficult to draw.

If you are a fan of capitalism, you might want to know what the “law and economics” (e.g., Posner) take is on this issue. Having a state-enabled cartel in control of data on their controlled marketplace introduces information asymmetries that adversely affect the ability of consumers to determine price. This reduces market efficiency and results in capital investment into non-productive industries. (You know, things like R+D, manufacturing, etc)

In addition, your analysis completely ignores the development of commercial law in this country.

#103 jim on 10.02.13 at 10:31 am

#78

“Foreigners with money see opportunity to scoop up some underpriced assets, denominated in a currency most likely to appreciate vs others.”

Uh, have you checked the US dollar against other currencies. Do yourself a favour and view a 10 year chart of the USD versus South American currencies. It is a disaster zone. Barring perennial basket case Argentina, it has crashed against them, losing 30% against Uruguay and Chile.

The US is devaluing its dollar to pay off its debts. We are along for the ride, so a myopic perspective might lead one to believe that the USD will rise. Against CDN it probably will. Against the rest of the world, no.

#104 Pr on 10.02.13 at 10:32 am

I told you!
Yesterday, at the end of the day CIGM (The CIGM is chambre immobilière du grand Montréal,Québec province) sent to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) notice of withdrawal to inform the CIGM will retire as a member of the Association December 31, 2013!
Voila!

#105 Buy? Curious? on 10.02.13 at 10:35 am

Hey Garth! Did you see that Re/Max is now trading on the NYSE? Not sure what ticker is, RATS? Do you think I should buy a few shares or wait until Tuesday to short it?

Also, did you see British Medical Journal release a paper on the legalisation of drugs?

#106 Jim Lahey, Sunnyvale Trailer Park Supervisor on 10.02.13 at 10:44 am

Just a reminder folks that the TASTGFBDCParty will be held right here in good ol Sunnyvale this December. All past attendees will recall the grand time that was had. Past highlights include the bearded mystic oracle that runs this blog, trouncing former BOC governor Mark Carney and tea party whacko and gold hugger Ron Paul in a vigorous debate on the gold standard. Ricky, Julian and Bubbles are excited at meeting the blog dogs once again. Ricky has also promised to be on his best behaviour and not force any blog dogs to harvest weed at gunpoint as happened at the FASTPGFBDCParty. All are welcome to attend!

#107 SK Renter on 10.02.13 at 10:46 am

Apparently the Association of Regina Realtors does not know how to report statistics correctly, due to inability to perform basic math.

Current weekly indicator report: http://www.reginarealtors.com/images/trendline/weekly_activity_reports/2013/regina-wmar-2013-09-30.pdf

Mistakes:
Page 4: 3-month average is not correct for any column, but may be due to extreme rounding error, so I will leave this alone.

Page 6: Current activity (12 m avg) of average days on market should read 36.25, reads 35. and one year ago should read the same (weird, but whatever). They report a -2.8% drop of average days on market, should read 0.

Page 8: Both current and one year ago median prices 12 month averages are below any monthly average from the previous 12 months. I am not even going to add this, because it is ridiculous.

#108 Bobby on 10.02.13 at 10:47 am

The clowns at the Victoria Real Estate Board have just published their September statistics. The headline reads a sales surge, but oops sales are down 15% from last month. Oh yes, it is compared to the same month last year.

Remember these are the same geniuses that suggested awhile ago that the government will raise interest rates to stimulate the economy. You can’t make this stuff up.

Out looking at condos. Lots and lots for sale. Half empty buildings with no one else looking but me. Many are relisted a number of times. One agent did admit there is too much inventory on the market.

Time to lowball

#109 T on 10.02.13 at 10:50 am

So here is an interesting question Garth. If you chose to delete it so be it.

Right now we are heading towards several scenarios.

1) US government gets back up an running in the next few days
2) Government stays shut
3) Government stays shut and goes off debt cliff.

With you daily professing at well balanced portfolio will yield 7% exactly what is your plan in the next 6 weeks?

Are you moving to cash? All Bonds? All Stocks?

My point is we are heading to a situation where peoples portfolios will likely be slaughtered yet again.

Could there be a 30% drop in the Dow. Yup. Same for Nasdaq.

And yet those who are supposedly “over invested” in housing will see ZERO issue in the next weeks months.

How do you respond to this?

You are an uneducated alarmist. But, most are. — Garth

#110 jess on 10.02.13 at 11:14 am

foreign investment

complex corporate structures and intergroup transactions

attracting foreign investment?
https://theconversation.com/google-and-exxonmobil-run-rings-around-outdated-tax-laws-18845

===

Prem Sikka argument for a unitary taxation

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/may/24/corporate-tax-avoidance-unitary-taxation-g8

he writes: ” The current corporate taxation system is the outcome of international treaties crafted nearly a century ago. Three aspects stand out. First, at a time when western nations ruled vast tracts of the globe, it was agreed that companies would be taxed at the place of their residence rather than where the economic activity took place. The companies’ headquarters were mostly in the western world.

Second, even though companies may be under common ownership, control and strategic direction, they were to be taxed as separate entities. Thus a company with 100 subsidiaries will be treated as 100 separate entities for tax purposes.

Third, there was an issue about how intragroup transactions were to be assessed for tax purposes, as it was envisaged that corporations would set up operations and subsidiaries in other countries and transfer goods and services to each other. The solution was to agree on what is known as transfer pricing and intragroup transactions were to be valued at what the OECD calls “arm’s length” principle, or free-market market prices.”

or http://www.taxjustice.net/cms/upload/pdf/Towards_Unitary_Taxation_1-1.pdf

#111 Parps on 10.02.13 at 11:35 am

I’m a bit confused about the chart in today’s post. It doesn’t really show that mortgage apps are collapsing, but just that the percentage of ONLINE apps is decreasing.

Is there any way to get the total mortgage app numbers?

#112 Big Brother on 10.02.13 at 11:50 am

#47 Smoking Man on 10.01.13 at 9:56 pm
One day I might end up at the pearly gates, pretending to be sorry, selling my good deads, all the while thinking how to bump off this old bearded guy and take his chair.

NOT A SNOWBALLS CHANCE IN HELL EVER WOULD SMOKING MAN EVER MAKE IT TO HEAVEN. SM IS THE GREATEST ANTICHRIST EVER PUT ON EARTH. MY APOLOGIES MEPHOSTOPILES. “LORD OF THE FLIES”

#113 Raymond Kwok and Thomas Kwok on 10.02.13 at 12:09 pm

#56 juno on 10.01.13 at 10:42 pm

Raymond Kwok and Thomas Kwok

These guys created the bubble in Vancouver BC
very big influence
Seriously

#114 Not 1st on 10.02.13 at 12:33 pm

Garth what does it matter if most of our economy is made up of residential construction? The US has a full percentage point of its GDP directly coming from stimulus and govt spending and they seem happy with that.

Your logic falters badly when you try to pump the US economy.

#115 Sebee on 10.02.13 at 12:35 pm

Garth, this double listing is a coordinated effort and must have been instructed. Since you’ve mentioned it, I’ve paid more attention to these double listings. There are areas where nearly every listing is doubled. This is no coincidence. This was instructed.

Now, if you could only dig up the email that instructed this practice to be followed. I would love to see that individual explain it.

#116 bill on 10.02.13 at 12:36 pm

Hi Nosty
we are thinking of you and the your Mom.

#117 TnT on 10.02.13 at 12:46 pm

#93 someone

I feel your frustrations but you will need to adapt or move.

Canadians do not have a sustainable birth rate and requires vast amount of immigration to keep our tax base and economy growing.

I also know firsthand that all these new Canadians quickly become “traditional” Canadians within a single generation. Just visit any local school and watch them playing hockey and eating McDonald’s.

Did you really think Canada with its mere 35 million people can ever stop the 2.6 BILLION Chinese and Indians from tipping the scales?

Look at how big Canada is… we have TRILLIONS of dollars locked in natural resources with no one to process them.

Aren’t you sick of Kraft Dinner anyways?

Embrace the change

#118 sciencemonkey on 10.02.13 at 12:47 pm

Off topic, but I found this interesting Smoking Man case study.

Apparently gyms are quite the smoking man business, with a lot of gyms continuing to debit your bank account or charge your credit card even after you’ve officially quit. Some have been investigated for fraud but nothing could be proven. See this segment, which focuses on Premier Fitness, owned by a guy with ties to the Mafia:

http://www.cbc.ca/player/Shows/Shows/Marketplace/Season+38/ID/1726926714/

I especially like the end where one of the business owners is dodging questions from the reporter. Apparently Premier Fitness went out of business last year:

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/business-strategy/premier-fitness-closes-its-doors/

#119 Canadian Watchdog on 10.02.13 at 1:25 pm

No HAM?

Toronto Life November 2012 PDF

Helena Wong, a sharply dressed agent with a shrewd smile, spent the last '80s and early '90s traveling to Hong Kong for the developer Tridel, soliciting buyers for new GTA condo projects. In the last '90s, she went solo, traveling to China and teaming up with Canadian consultancies — they'd push the advantages of moving to Canada, and she's represent Toronto condos. Around that time she met and marries a fellow Torontonian named Wayne Murdock, then an agent for the defunct Family Trust. Now divorced, they continue to work together — their connections are so solid that there's rarely any need for international travel. People come to them. Murdock and Wong say Chinese buyers like Toronto because they don't have to rely on an agent's knowledge to figure out property value — MLS histories and the municipal assessment rolls provide reliable evidence of real estate appreciation.

LinkedIn Helena Wong

Director/Broker – IXL at Real Estate Inc.

September 2010 – Present (3 years 2 months) I

I specialize in new condo sales, opening sites, closing sites, special investment programs, real estate sales to overseas investors in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and U.S.A. New Sites opened in the since Oct. 2010 – Edge, Edge 2 and Epic at Triangle Park in West Queen West at Dufferin and Queen St. West, and most recently, Townhouse sites at the Beach and Leslieville areas namely The Beach, Leslieville and Riverdale – all within minutes from the beach area. As at October 1st, 2011, moved to manage the sales office of Ivory on Adelaide East by Plazacorp which is minutes from DVP and Gardner and walking distance to everything. The project is 60% sold as Nov. 30.2011 Helena Wong

LinkedIn Wayne Murdock

PRESIDENT – Broker of Record – IXL at Real Estate Inc

January 2004 – Present (9 years 10 months)

Established an independent real estate brokerage firm to cater to the needs of clientele in Toronto's high-end condominium market, and grew the company to $500k in annual revenues. Assumed responsibility for marketing, business development, client relations, and operations management, including providing oversight to a 3-member team of agents and an office administrator.

PRESIDENT – Snow International Marketing

January 1998 – Present (15 years 10 months)

Initially launched this firm to oversee a personal real estate investment portfolio, and evolved the company to provide a full range of real estate brokerage and property management services to international investors from Asia wishing to invest in the Toronto Condominium Market.

#120 jess on 10.02.13 at 1:27 pm

st. elsewhere?

Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Cayman Islands to create a new fantasy nowhere land
On September 9th the Cayman Islands introduced a bill for the establishment of new Special Economic Zones. The most Alice-in-Wonderland part of the bill is this bit, on page 14:

“A special economic zone shall be deemed to be outside of the Islands and not in the Islands.”

Emphasis added. So where will this zone be?

http://gazettes.gov.ky/sites/default/files/extraordinary-gazettes-supplements/Es312011_web.pdf

#121 Ralph Cramdown on 10.02.13 at 1:34 pm

#109 T — 3) Government stays shut and goes off debt cliff.

Could there be a 30% drop in the Dow. Yup. Same for Nasdaq.

And yet those who are supposedly “over invested” in housing will see ZERO issue in the next weeks months.

Do you have a really short memory, or are you hoping your audience does? Because MY recollection (confirmed by looking at charts) is that housing prices and volumes plunged in the months after the GFC and were only stabilized by steep interest rate cuts and massive government liquidity injections. I recall a proposed and partially sold 81 storey residential tower in Toronto being cancelled as the developer’ s loans went into default.

But that aside, what makes you think you’re seeing something that people with money in the stock markets aren’t seeing? And what have you been doing differently as a result of the shutdown and possible default? You, as a part of the collective of consumers, have a greater impact on most of the Dow and NASDAQ companies than the US government does.

If the Tea Party is dumb enough to try default, Böner would likely put a resolution to the vote, and it would be carried by Democrats and the sane members of the Republican caucus, because he’d rather be the speaker who lost his job than the speaker who welshed on the US debt. Even if I overestimate Böner, Obama would quickly announce “I have today instructed the Treasury Secretary…” and there’s be a brief constitutional crisis which would result in the Supreme Court siding with Obama and the Republicans losing the House in next year’s midterm elections. Is that so hard to see?

#122 RiverCross on 10.02.13 at 1:36 pm

As an Asian immigrant(now citizen for the past 20 yrs), you guys are not familiar with Asian culture.

Firstly, the house less than 1M is not a big problem to buy. Why? Two or Three generations of Chinese or Korean families are likely live at one house together. So, Let say, when we buy a house, it’s like this.

One house = mother-in-law + father-in-law + me + my wife + my children

or,

One house = my mom + my dad + me + my wife + my children

so, mostly the two generations buy one house. And they live together. This is very very typical way of living pattern especially in Canada.

When you look at east Indian culture, they do the exact same thing. Couple of families buy a house with shared money. It’s not that challenging.

Of course there is no clear stats for this. But when you look around, it is totally true.

All of my close families bought houses(SFH) last/this year. They don’t know or don’t care about the bubbles as they need to live here.

No stats for this.. but true.

#123 Don Derc on 10.02.13 at 1:41 pm

question: 2 bedroom on Jane st Toronto – 50 yr old 25 story highrise building – listed at $56,000 with a monthly maintenance fee of $800 (and rising). There is a “ring” of these dinosaurs around the city – about 100 buildings altogether. Do the downtown $400K condo units go up in price when the dinosaur buildings are torn down in 15 years? or do people buy cheaper outside the city and do the 2 hour commute?

#124 Screwed on 10.02.13 at 2:08 pm

#93 someone

Words of wisdom. You totally know and understand what is happening to BC. Time to move out. Quebec or parts of Europe.

#125 happity on 10.02.13 at 2:24 pm

LOL, and this is a unique situation in the world of finance?

It only applies to real estate?

LOL

#126 Fed-up on 10.02.13 at 2:30 pm

@#68 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 10.02.13 at 1:21 am

Time for Realtors to have the political “carpet” yanked out from under them and join the real world of Capitalism.
ie. FAIR competition.

—————————————————————————————————

That was point I was trying to make in last night posts but according to Pinstripe and Smoking Man, as long as it puts food on the table for those benefiting, all is fair game, “Capitalism at its finest” that will be “socialized” when it all falls apart BTW.

What we really need to keep in mind, is that a sales-shark who sells you a lemon of a used car, a lousy vacuum cleaner or talks you into investing $50,000 into an investment that tanks (and none of that is acceptable mind you), isn’t setting you back well over 7 figures and having you and your spouse slaving away for the next 35 years of your life, to finally pay it off.

The realturd industry needs to be stopped in its wrong doings, period.

#127 Non Asian Immigrant on 10.02.13 at 2:59 pm

DELETED

#128 wilbur on 10.02.13 at 3:07 pm

http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/news/business-news/home-sales-in-vancouver-up-64percent-from-year-ago-1

And so the stories begin…

#129 father on 10.02.13 at 3:25 pm

(o.k. backlash) maybe we do have around 5% ham I do not know about that is still 95% local

#130 ILoveCharts on 10.02.13 at 3:34 pm

@123 RiverCross:
That is an important consideration. Immigration (resulting in legitimate Canadian citizens with Canadian jobs,) has changed the ethnic make-up of the lower mainland and that has also resulted in changes in the culture. Asian families often buy a house with multiple generations (which is great,) but it can serve to drive up house prices (which is annoying for people that want to live in a house by themselves.)

I see far too little intelligent discussion about this topic.

#131 Form Man on 10.02.13 at 3:40 pm

#123 Rivercross

If one follows your line of reasoning, then even less housing would be needed for Asian immigrants than we thought.

#132 T on 10.02.13 at 4:21 pm

If the Tea Party is dumb enough to try default, Böner would likely put a resolution to the vote, and it would be carried by Democrats and the sane members of the Republican caucus, because he’d rather be the speaker who lost his job than the speaker who welshed on the US debt. Even if I overestimate Böner, Obama would quickly announce “I have today instructed the Treasury Secretary…” and there’s be a brief constitutional crisis which would result in the Supreme Court siding with Obama and the Republicans losing the House in next year’s midterm elections. Is that so hard to see?

___________________________________________

Your prediction would then do one more thing you overlooked.

On the world stage, USA would be viewed like you going to a fancy restaurant on a first date-hot girl. The cheque comes, your try and pay, and the waiter comes back to tell you the credit card you have has to be cut up.

You, will likely end up driving home-alone later that evening.

________________

You are trying to say it doesn’t matter how the bills are paid. By the contrary.

#133 ripped on 10.02.13 at 4:28 pm

“The Party Is Over” for Housing

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/party-over-housing-bank-earnings-chris-whalen-161916996.html

#134 RealityNut on 10.02.13 at 4:50 pm

It’s crap like this:

Vancouver home sales rebound with 64-per-cent upturn
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/vancouver-home-sales-surge-by-nearly-64-per-cent-in-september/article14659128/

#135 Smoking Man on 10.02.13 at 5:13 pm

#112 Big Brother on 10.02.13 at 11:50 am#47 Smoking Man on 10.01.13 at 9:56 pmOne day I might end up at the pearly gates, pretending to be sorry, selling my good deads, all the while thinking how to bump off this old bearded guy and take his chair.

NOT A SNOWBALLS CHANCE IN HELL EVER WOULD SMOKING MAN EVER MAKE IT TO HEAVEN. SM IS THE GREATEST ANTICHRIST EVER PUT ON EARTH. MY APOLOGIES MEPHOSTOPILES. “LORD OF THE FLIES”

…………

I think of myself more as a bad comedian.

Plus who would wana hung with a guy who chuck’s souls into the fire.

That’s barbaric…..

#136 economictsunami on 10.02.13 at 5:14 pm

US Mortgage Applications recently dipped slightly but are still off of their April/2013 peak by 60% Cash only transactions hit almost 2/3rds in many recent “hotspots.”

Responsible for much of the cash only transactions, private equity firms are moving from net buyers to sellers of some of their more choice properties. (It made sense for them to buy and rent at the beginning of the upswing. Not so much any more.)

Classic pump and dump. Only fools rush in…

#137 Siva on 10.02.13 at 5:18 pm

#123 RiverCross on 10.02.13 at 1:36 pm

What you said is true but the practice is not large enough to affect the real estate market.

#138 jess on 10.02.13 at 5:29 pm

$3.6M in bitcoin seized
During the raid, authorities seized $3.6 million worth of bitcoin, which was used instead of cash or credit cards to complete transactions on Silk Road.

The charges against Ulbricht said his website generated sales of more than 9.5 million bitcoin, roughly equivalent to $1.2 billion.

Authorities seized the currency by taking control of the digital “wallets” Silk Road used to store bitcoin.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/silk-road-illegal-drug-website-shut-down-by-fbi-1.1876244

#139 Uncle Scrooge on 10.02.13 at 5:29 pm

So I am reading about the Surrey Six murder case and I came across this; “Suite 1505 is owned by real estate agent Ceasar Tiojanco and his wife, Myrna. They bought the apartment in 2003 for $82,000. Land title records show the couple own six other properties across Metro Vancouver with an assessed 2008 value of almost $2.8 million”
Now a similar sized apartment across the hall from the death suite is on the market for $209,900

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=13328944&PidKey=370872137

That’s a 256% increase in 10 years even with the grim specter of death lingering in the hallway.

#140 JimmyAAA on 10.02.13 at 5:41 pm

#89 fixie guy on 10.02.13 at 8:57 am
#72 Kalergie “Don’t flatter yourself fellow Canadians. ;)”

Canada has the 11th highest immigration rate in the world, beat out by golden destinations like Qatar, Bahrain, Zimbabwe, Djibouti and Cyprus among others
=====================================
Fixie I think you took that from Wikipedia. That was a migration rate – both in and out. Thats why Zimbabwe and Cyprus are on there. Lots of people leaving.

#141 JimmyAAA on 10.02.13 at 5:44 pm

Oops wrong- misread it. Must be improving conditions in Zimbabwe and Cyprus. And Canada is now 22nd on the Source (CIA factbook)

#142 jess on 10.02.13 at 5:58 pm

st elsewheres

Exclusive
Ex-Revenue Canada lawyer advised how to hide money offshore
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ex-revenue-canada-lawyer-advised-how-to-hide-money-offshore-1.1875481

#143 dave B on 10.02.13 at 6:15 pm

Brad Lamb signed?

http://www.change.org/en-CA/users/64539183

#144 kothar on 10.02.13 at 6:25 pm

#109, why would a person who is invested for the long term (40 years + for myself) worry about the US gov and theatre going on now? Why would I liquidate my holdings in my diversified portfolio because of this, or any other event? I am not going to worry about every little thing that pops up in the world. I am in for the long haul, i am not a day trader with a few stocks that could plummet on a whim. I have a multi diversified portfolio spread across the world and asset classes to buffet from things like this. Also I have another thing on my side, TIME, a long time to see it recover in the future!
Amateur!

#145 Cici on 10.02.13 at 6:52 pm

I didn’t sign this time because my e-mail address is none of their business. They’d probably just use it to flog me unsolicited real estate ads as soon as the market dips ever so slightly.

#146 Cici on 10.02.13 at 6:58 pm

#94 TnT

That, my friend, is absolutely hilarious! Good and funny observation.

#147 ILoveCharts on 10.02.13 at 7:10 pm

Re:
#138 Siva
“#123 RiverCross on 10.02.13 at 1:36 pm
What you said is true but the practice is not large enough to affect the real estate market.”

Do you have any facts to back that up Siva? Let me guess, you don’t live here do you?

I understand the skepticism regarding the inflows of legitimate and illegitimate cash from foreign investors and that’s worthy of a debate.

But trying to suggest that shifts in culture that accompany immigration have had absolutely no impact on the real-estate market is crazy. The truth is that many of our new permanent residents and citizens have different cultural practices and that changes things.

#148 Daisy Mae on 10.02.13 at 8:27 pm

#93 Someone: “…another stupid legacy of the baby boomers, the most entitled generation ever!”

************************

Baby Boomers had an huge impact simply because of their sheer numbers. That is all. Give it a rest.

#149 Daisy Mae on 10.02.13 at 8:57 pm

#118 TnT: “I also know firsthand that all these new Canadians quickly become “traditional” Canadians within a single generation. Just visit any local school and watch them playing hockey and eating McDonald’s.”

*****************

That is encouraging…and what I hoped to expect. Having been born and raised in Vancouver, it has been difficult to watch the transformation…but I guess nothing ever stays the same.

#150 JuliaS on 10.02.13 at 8:58 pm

#5 Robbie

I’m a debt free saver who would buy a house if the price permitted it. I am employed and slowly accumulating wealth, however with every passing year as I’m getting close to my imaginary retirement, I less and less contemplate buying real estate. With less time to enjoy the property, less life force left to maintain it and less opportunity to dump it eventually if unexpected expenses arise, I’m losing interest in RE all together.

Older people, like you said, want to sell. Younger people are to their necks in debt with no jobs, living at their parents. I’m the only segment to which the houses could be marketed to and I’m getting older.

Once a person passes retirement age minus national amortization limit, it’s the point of no return. That potential buyer is likely lost forever. If by then the person hasn’t managed to free himself from other forms of debt, he’s a goner!

#151 Daisy Mae on 10.02.13 at 9:04 pm

#123 Rivercross: “This is very very typical way of living pattern especially in Canada.”

******************

It is not typical.

#152 beach girl on 10.03.13 at 9:49 am

I have no problem with Asians or Indians who live in multigenerational homes.

Once, unfortunately lived in Unionville, Ontario. In a 3,600 Mini McMansion with a walk out basement. The absolute most boring time of my life. The marriage didn’t help either.

The next door neighbours were Chinese. At least 15 of them lived there. House was spotless. Nice people. Only difference being, there were 8 kids there. Who all went to school on the taxpayers dime.

Now, I live in a beautiful large home with the unwed fathers. Down the street is my other home, full of unwed mothers. Perfect.

Not much difference, really.

So, you had 7 taxpayers next door? — Garth

#153 VancityXer on 10.03.13 at 2:23 pm

As expected, the Sept numbers just released for the rainy city can be easily spun into a continutation of REs upward climb in this city. The numbers will be thus as long as they are being compared to last year’s dip. If you actually read the report by the REBGV, they don’t try and hide this fact, freely admitting that last September’s sales numbers were the lowest in three decades. But the media doesn’t grasp onto THAT as their headline. Instead, they continue to push the agenda that real estate always goes higher in this city. And readers who don’t do their homework and haave forgotten how to spend more than 2 mins reseraching a topic will never know the truth. And the RE cartel will thank them for it.

Also, #93, I feel your pain. Sadly, we are at a point of no return. Your option is to accept it or leave.

#154 Manson on 10.03.13 at 5:59 pm

The slower Real estate the higher the rents…enjoy.

Actually it’s the reverse. — Garth

#155 arealtor on 10.04.13 at 3:33 pm

So, let me get this straight…. Realtor’s are the cause of the impending bubble?? What a load of crap.
Your own greed and stupidity will be the cause of any downturn. Canadian’s appetite for debt is the cause.

Dont blame the real estate industry because you are a moron and:
-buy more house than you could afford
-fail to recognize that sooner or later, interest rates will rise
-assume that prices will rise indefinitely
-fail to recognize that everything moves in cycles boom/bust

To come on this blog and whine about sales figures potentially being skewed by the real estate industry as a catalyst for the end of days is just asinine. Look elsewhere – like in a mirror.

I guess its far easier and less painful to blame your own shortcomings on others.

And i take offense when some of you take shots at Realtors and paint us all with the same brush. Is that fair?
I pride myself in being completely straight forward and honest with my clients. I tell it like it is even if it means that i dont get hired at the end of the day. Are there sleazy agents out there? Of course !!!
Are there bad cops? How about bad teachers-who are only in it for their summer’s off? Or crooked financial planners and so on and so on….

choose your words wisely.