Y & E

watching

They expected hundreds. They got dozens. Could this turn out to be the landmark building that’ll never be built? Or is there enough condomania left in the nation’s biggest market to fill a staggering 56 stories with hot young hipsters at the corner of Young & Eligible?

Days ago Tower Hill Development blew its food budget at a “Preview Opening” event for 2221 Yonge, a massive slab which will soar over one of the busiest intersections in Toronto. Imagine living in a frenetic beehive of 600 concrete boxes thrust into the skies, all linked underground to a subway station big enough (when a new line’s completed and hooked in) to handle 400,000 bodies a day.

The boxes start at $200,000 for a closet of 390 square feet, with parking spaces available at $65,000 (if you qualify). Occupancy is slated for August 31, 2017. Or maybe never. It’s a bit early to tell, but a few long faces at the gala event suggest the latter.

2221 yonge

As you know, many eyes are on the most insane condo market in North America, where 150 towers are currently being built at the same time new projects are scuttled at a record pace. Already 21,000 virginal units sit unsold, while projects like 2221 Yonge gush out more.

Even before the first canapé was nibbled at the corner of Yonge and Eglinton, ravenous realtors were using Kijiji (cuz it’s free) to reflog inventories that were foolishly bulk-bought on spec. Suddenly that parking spot fell to ‘only’ $50,000, the downpayment dipped 5% and the buyer receives a no-fee assignment clause, letting them flip the box to a greater fool during the l-o-n-g four years until closing day.

But likely gone are the days when you could buy a pre-build condo and expect profits by the time the last exploding glass balcony panel was installed. The speckers and flippers have learned that lesson, often the hard way. It’s why only a third (at best) of new units are now being bought by speculators, as opposed to 70% a year ago. And in this may be the true death knell of one of the world’s most overbuilt markets.

It’s interesting that the price gap between new houses (real ones, with actual dirt) and new condos has soared to an unprecedented level. A decade ago someone graduating from a condo needed only about $75,000 more to move up to a small SFH or a townhouse. The spread is now $220,000 in the GTA – with low-rises houses averaging $658,938 and condos checking in at $436,789

To the motivated economists at BMO (where they apparently sell mortgages), this is good news: “Going forward, the large premium on detached homes should push more buyers into the condo market, where sales are down 18 per cent from a year ago, thereby stemming the upward pressure on detached home prices.” Sure. In your dreams. The condo market is croaking because of saturation, higher mortgage rates, tighter lending restrictions and a growing shortage of juicy virgins. After all, if 2221 Yonge ever gets built, you can rest assured renters will live there for half the cost of owners.

Well, enough of me. Let’s hear about Edward. He’s got some news about what a great investment condos can be:

Garth: First off, I love your blog and read it daily. I bought a condo (ahem) in Mississauga about 2 years ago for 273K. I put exactly 100K down with 25K from HBP and have paid the mortgage down to just under 157K as of now. I listed it for sale yesterday for 270K and I’m 33 years old.

My girlfriend and I decided recently that we wanted to move in together. She owns a condo worth a little over 200K and has about 70K in equity in it. She is locked into a fixed rate mortgage for one more year with a penalty to get out. Probably about 5K if my math is right. She intends to rent her condo out for at least a year until the mortgage matures to avoid the penalty. We are going to rent a house together for at least the year to test the waters together and see how that goes. I like the idea of being mobile and not being tied down right now and we’re not ready to plunk our money into more real estate yet.

My question is, what if the condo doesn’t sell? The price I’m asking for is close to what I paid and might be unrealistic. I have accepted that I’m not going to make any money and in fact I’m going to eat a pretty large loss but if it is listed for more than a month at this price, what would you do? What’s your advice in our situation? Do you think she should sell too? What do you think of our plans? Any flaws? Anything you would do differently? Any recommendations?

We are looking for a rental now. It is really tough. They go almost over night and it will cost me more out of pocket to rent than I currently pay to own which sucks but I’ll have flexibility, mobility and almost 200K in the bank and it allows us to move in together sooner. I’d love a response whenever you have the time. The condo will pop up on MLS on Monday. I am using an agent and they’re going in today to take pictures.

Eddy, you poor little lamb. Fleeced by the condo gods. The GF, too.

If you sell for $260,000, after commish you’ve lost more than thirty grand on this unit, not counting the nil returns on over $100,000 in equity. You could’ve rented the same unit for far less, of course. Meanwhile the GF has obviously made nothing on her brilliant purchase, or a $5K break fee wouldn’t have her contemplating renting it for (presumably) zero cash flow merely to avoid paying up.

And what if the condo doesn’t sell? Simple. Lower the price until it does. Either that or hang on and ride the market lower, selling for even less next year. Meanwhile your equity erodes, your monthly costs continue and the hot GF beckons. Of course, you can always rent your place out and move in with her, but then you own two lousy investments. Two mortgages. Two sets of fees. Almost two hundred grand in dead equity. That won’t impress her much.

My advice? Bail. Both of you. Cut your losses by setting a listing price designed to generate interest, and move the sucker. Tell the GF she’s a nut to sustain big market losses trying to avoid a small mortgage fee. Admit you both made mistakes and move on. You’re shoveling money into falling assets that have little chance of recovering for years, if ever.

If you’re going to read this pathetic blog, Ed, and ask for guidance, then act like it. Real men get liquid.

139 comments ↓

#1 not 1st on 09.26.13 at 6:40 pm

In that response, how did you come to the conclusion his GF is hot?

Oh yeah and first today too

All of them are. To someone. — Garth

#2 The Straw on 09.26.13 at 6:53 pm

“It’s why only a third (at best) of new units are now being bought by speculators, as opposed to 70% a year ago.”

Can you provide your source for this?

Urbanation. — Garth

#3 espressobob on 09.26.13 at 6:53 pm

Ok, had to do the adult thing and tag along with a couple of youngsters (hipsters) to view a condo.

No big deal I thought, took a look and lost it!

In my extreme sarcastic fashion, slowly tearing a strip off the realtor.

What the hell is this??? A home for guinee pigs? Serious?

I guess I wasn’t popular, but who cares. And no they didn’t buy! Bonus!

#4 Zed on 09.26.13 at 6:56 pm

Great situation, what is Ed asking of you Garth? To say that you understand and nothing is his fault? Peoples get suckered into buying and just now they see that it was a dream and that owning a place might not mean freedom. I hope that most “virgins” don’t lose too much in their learning experience in homeownership.

#5 Smoking Man's Old Man on 09.26.13 at 7:00 pm

It’s funny how we burden ourselves with stuff. I suppose the more stuff we acquire the more adequate We feel as human beings. After all marketing and commercialism relies on us feeling “less” so that we will consume “more”.

It takes a lot of interspection to free ourselves of this notion as we have been schooled to believe is the route to happiness.

I own almost nothing. Saw the light at 40 years of age, and got off the treadmill. Talked to my financial advisor recently, and with a conservative return of 4.5 to 5.5 can blow through 60K a year and die broke at 90. Sounds good to me.

Today sunny and beautiful in Vancouver. Meditated, exercised, 25K bike ride, then laid in sun with a good book.

I used to be an over achiever. Now, I just watch others chase their tails, and for what?

#6 Donald Trump on 09.26.13 at 7:02 pm

Pearls before swine..unless uR hot

#7 Snake on 09.26.13 at 7:03 pm

Where Are The Cheapest Condos In Toronto?

4-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo for $149,900

http://www.torontorealtyblog.com/archives/where-are-the-cheapest-condos-in-toronto/9916

#8 bigtown on 09.26.13 at 7:05 pm

Get the market stats from your realtor…if the most recent sales are at $243k then respect the numbers. All potential buyers will have the recent sales numbers and WILL NOT HESITATE TO COME IN at or below $243.

#9 Joseph R. on 09.26.13 at 7:12 pm

#3 espressobob on 09.26.13 at 6:53 pm

Ok, had to do the adult thing and tag along with a couple of youngsters (hipsters) to view a condo.

What happened to the term “Yuppies” (Y)oung (U)rban (P)rofessionals? When did the term Hipster replaced it?

It was such a good term to describe them!

#10 Michael on 09.26.13 at 7:28 pm

Ed,

If you can’t sell one of them, or if you’ll take too big of a hit selling then consider renting one of them out.

See which of the two you can get more from in the rental market and do the math. Maybe your rental can pitch in a few hundred a month in profits to subsidize your own renting.

If you need to be completely liquid, that’s one thing. If you don’t, then consider renting to others.

Only you can figure out what’s best for you, maybe taking a big hit and cutting your losses as Garth suggests isn’t your only option. Only you know what your priorities are.

Good luck

#11 Tkid on 09.26.13 at 7:31 pm

Eddy – sell! Then get the girlfriend to sell!

#12 Spiltbongwater on 09.26.13 at 7:37 pm

When did the term Hipster replaced it?
#9 Joseph R. on 09.26.13 at 7:12 pm

I think around the occupy movement is when Hipsters came to be. From what I saw at the VAG there were a bunch of dreadlocked white kids drinking Pabst beer and Starbucks coffees wearing these gigantic aviator sunglasses. Those kinds of folks are in no way professional so a new term was given. Since they were anti government / anti establishment they were looked at to be hippies, (but not the stinky spaced out hippies from the 60s who are now still wearing tye dye shirts and collecting CPP.OAS etc) they needed a new name and Hipsters came to be. Imo.

#13 Spiltbongwater on 09.26.13 at 7:42 pm

Ed, my advise fwiw is to sell the place, and spend the money on some hookers downtown over the years and save the difference between what you need, and what you have to give up with a g/f/wife. In the long run it will create a happier life for yourself, and you will get the same feeling sans having someone at home to cook you dinner.

Speaking from my point of view as a single, bitter, divorced, balding, middle aged male. Watch some reruns of Married With Children, and rethink the whole moving in thing.

#14 Nosty in Knickerland on 09.26.13 at 7:44 pm

#88 fallacies are rampant on 09.26.13 at 10:29 am — “There are lobby groups whose best interests don’t always align with those of the common man…..as was Al Gore in Britains Supreme Court…It appears we’ve been subjected to a quite successful advert campaign…for reasons which will become clear when people start to follow the money. Gore got 200 million for his part. What about the rabid campaign against Canada’s oil industry…..by nebulous green sounding concerns…..does anyone think perhaps the Arabian interests don’t want the cometition?”

Albeeus Goreiuss is one of the most brilliantly-talented politicos / liars / frauds / cheats in living memory. Not only is he a gaztrillionaire, he periodically comes out with statements like the aforementioned, and expects everyone to pay attention and believe him. But I’m a simpleton, and he’s too complex for me.

The reality is . . . Six Days “In the real world, there are an unknown number of active volcanoes on the floors of the oceans, the sun’s activity changes (it is now at a 100 year low, presaging a hard winter), and behind that there is the 100,000 year oscillation in the shape of the Earth’s orbit, which brings on the ice ages and the interglacial periods.” wrh.com.

No sunspot activity? It must be close to a Maunder Minimum! After all, sunspots are the driving force behind CC, and they’re on a leave of absence now, which would explain Antarctice and the Arctic having plenty of sea ice.

Combined with the lack of hurricanes so far, this indicates a rather cold winter, as per the Farmer’s Almanac.
*
Kenya What a coincidence! They make the announcement two days prior to the mall BS starting! Swvt Ceiling has already been passed; France 100% taxes. The Communist Manifesto rebirthed?

#15 Donald Trump on 09.26.13 at 7:51 pm

Telus has a condo project in Downtown Vancouver

http://www.vancouvercondos.com/TelusGarden

Going up verrrryyy slooowlllyyyyy

#16 espressobob on 09.26.13 at 7:54 pm

#9 Joseph R

Good guestion? Best I can tell ‘yuppies’ are an eighties thing, ‘hipsters evolved in the 90’s’ probably started at the ‘drake hotel’ on queen west? Shiny running shoes, skinny jeans, and ‘Elton John” sunglasses!

I think the ‘yuppies’ had more brains. Who knows?

#17 Devore on 09.26.13 at 7:55 pm

“Going forward, the large premium on detached homes should push more buyers into the condo market, where sales are down 18 per cent from a year ago, thereby stemming the upward pressure on detached home prices.” Sure. In your dreams.

This is ridiculous. Someone in the market for SFH is not going to buy a 400sqft studio instead now that houses are too expensive. These are totally different markets, with the majority of new condo units built being tiny one bedrooms. They will find a way to get on with their lives in other ways, perhaps even becoming part of the mythical “pent up demand”.

Speculators, for all those who hate them so much, are performing their market role splendidly here. Speculators, both long and short ones, help with price discovery. They bring overvalued assets down through short selling, and increase demand for undervalued ones to hold for short term to flip at higher price. Incidentally, banning short selling seems very shortsighted to me, and am puzzled by how much regulators love this idea. Short sellers and speculators in general shorten the pricing cycle, and help reduce information asymmetry. Certainly, in cases where risk is severely mispriced/subsidized, speculators will run wild. The solution is to remove the market distortions, so short sellers and speculators bear the true cost of the risks they take, not ban the activities.

In the case of real estate and especially condos, they create additional demand and mop up inventory owners-occupiers (and even owners-investors) never could, and thus speed up the time needed for prices to reach their high watermark market valuation. Once the maximum valuation is reached, they retreat; if they could figure out how to short sell condos, they’d be doing it right now. But they can’t, so prices shoot up quickly, then enter a protracted period of decline until value investors provide a price floor. Note that in the US, the first buyers to return were investors looking for yield and cash flow, often buying with cash.

#18 Form Man on 09.26.13 at 8:00 pm

With the latest downbeat news about Toronto’s new condo market, I wonder when Kip the crane operator will return to tell us stories of sunshine, ponies, and the lovable Stephen Harper………… ?

#19 Halifax Observer on 09.26.13 at 8:05 pm

Ed, go a full 5% below the nearest comparable and you will generate interest. You can choose to bite a 5% bullet this year or a 15% bullet next year. Your listing has to look like a good deal. Get’r’done!!

#20 al on 09.26.13 at 8:07 pm

#9 Joseph R.

yuppie is somewhat the opposite of a hipster, the yuppie term simply not used much anymore, maybe because many educated young folks end up working selling coffee.

hipster is more of a trend description, than a social status

i.e. the yuppie back in the 1990s would have to get a nice suit as a yuppie, nowadays hipster can by stuff at Sally Ann and still be a hipster

yuppie had to have the money and a career (or pretend to), hipster may or may not have either

#21 takla on 09.26.13 at 8:28 pm

FAST EDDY….get out from under fast!List those declineing assets{properties}@ fire sale prices and chaulk up the losses to NOT reading garths blog sooner,much sooner.Next …go get your motorcycle licence and buy a harley with your equity{if any} and take that young thing on a good long ride down south and see what she’s made of.Your last major investment didnt turn out too well,dont make the same mistake twice;}

#22 Doug in London on 09.26.13 at 8:31 pm

@Smoking Man’s Old Man, post #5:
My sentiments exactly. I don’t get it about all this obsession with stuff either. Contrary to what you said, it doesn’t take a lot of interspection to free ourselves of this notion as we have been schooled to believe is the route to happiness. All it requires is some good old fashioned, bore you to tears, basic public school level common sense.

Back to the original subject of all those condos in Toronto, I don’t know how anyone can’t see it’s grossly overbuilt and eventually will return back to reality. When you see companies like CAP REIT scooping up the very few (if any) that aren’t shoddily built at cheap prices, that will be your signal to buy a condo. Plenty of patience will be required as it may take a while to happen, meanwhile scoop up some cheap investments instead, sit back, and watch the dividends roll in.

#23 Canadian Watchdog on 09.26.13 at 8:38 pm

The boxes start at $200,000 for a closet of 390 square feet.

That's big compared to these: Toronto gets its first micro-condos, at 300 square feet

They’re a perfect size and location for a piéd à terre, but first-timers might like them to live in, and yet others will use them as investments (the brochure suggests a return of about 5% to 7%.)

To put this size into prospective: 300 sq.ft. is five times larger then the average Canadian jail cell at 60sq.ft. So why are they building these if nobody wants them? Who's allowing these units to be built so small?

That can be answered in documents like this: The Local Agenda 21 Planning Guide Published by: The International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) City Hall, East Tower, 8th Floor, Toronto, ON, Canada, M5H 2N2

I won't bother lecturing. If you're interested in the plan and how it's being implemented by lobby groups and special interests, read it. Then ask anyone living in Vancouver how densification is working out for them.

#24 Larry Laffer on 09.26.13 at 8:48 pm

The YUL project – yet another condo hi-rise announced for an already saturated Montreal market, on sale starting tomorrow. Where in hell are they going to find buyers for 900 hi-priced units in a downtown wasteland that has no schools, parks or supermarket, and scare parking space? In Dubaï or Shanghai I suppose…

Still reminding me that many condos now sell for less than what people paid five years ago.

#25 Realtor # 1 on 09.26.13 at 8:53 pm

Looking over some sales of this week and prices are
Still solid. It’s time realize you are defeated there will
Be no crash. BIG Mistake waiting. Its been about 120 days since the under 3% mortgages and prices remain
High.
I’m revising my previous guess of prices will not hit 09 levels now I’m saying prices will not hit 2010 levels.
There wasn’t even a summer slow down. And the bond market is easing the 5 year rate will go down.

When kids are already taking losses on properties purchased two years ago your words are as self-centred as they are misleading. — Garth

#26 Cici on 09.26.13 at 9:07 pm

#9 Joseph R.

Sorry to be rude, but from under what ROCK did you just crawl out?

Yuppies are from a bygone era, the 80s.

Hipsters is the key term here; it perfectly describes these hip, young, urbanite, vespa-riding metrosexuals.

Sheesh, “Yuppies” just no longer fits the bill! The yuppies have grown up and are now “babyboomers,” or at least coming up really close to retirement.

#27 al on 09.26.13 at 9:10 pm

no slowdown at all

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/toronto-condo-sales-at-lowest-level-in-a-decade-1.1864887

#28 Cici on 09.26.13 at 9:12 pm

Ed, listen to Garth. DON’T listen to #10 Michael.

Unless you want to lose a whole lot of equity. Garth is right, get out now, as close to the top as you still can. The condo market is doomed, and the air will only keep coming out of that gasbag going forward.

#29 Joe Calgary on 09.26.13 at 9:31 pm

I was very unimpressed with Robert Schillers discussion about the Canadian housing market on BNN tonight. I think I could of explained better myself, what a fail, mention of the fundamentals, no mention of debt ratios, nothing. Major fail.

#30 BillyBob on 09.26.13 at 9:43 pm

The word is “introspection”. Referring to the quiet self-analysis that if you’re lucky, leads to the epiphany that you’re really not all that and a bag of chips, and inner peace and enlightenment ensue. Sadly, not many people have the time nor inclination anymore to indulge in the practice. Too many interesting Facebook updates, I suppose.

“Interspection” sounds like a word I should coin to describe the act of ogling attractive women at the corner of Yonge and Spadina.

#31 espressobob on 09.26.13 at 9:44 pm

#26 Cici

Sorry to be rude but from under what rock did “you” just crawl out??? Hippies are so sixties & seventies and many are wealthy! Dripping in cash in case you didn’t notice? Care for a rebuttal?

#32 Rain Bird on 09.26.13 at 10:02 pm

#5 “Today sunny and beautiful in Vancouver. Meditated, exercised, 25K bike ride, then laid in sun with a good book.”

Try this tomorrow or day after that for the next six months. Then report on what you see in the sky – any sign of sun or the moon?

#33 KommyKim on 09.26.13 at 10:05 pm

RE: Garth; Real men get liquid.

That almost sounds dirty. ;-)

#34 Ahead of the Curve on 09.26.13 at 10:08 pm

Ed, almost 200k on the bank?? Are you day dreaming?

Your math is very off, sorry to report.

Selling price: $260,000 (if you are lucky)
Mortgage: $157,000
Gross: $103,000

Commission: $14, 690 (5% plus HST)
Bank penalty: $ (fill in blank)
Legal fees: $1,000

Money in your pocket: $87,310

Also Ed, you mention that you will be renting for more than is costing you carry this place. So why doesn’t you GF move in with you? You say you want to test the waters, but is it worth to lose money to do it?

If you are going to sell, then off course right now will be better than next year. Think it through and all the best.

#35 young & foolish on 09.26.13 at 10:09 pm

There have always been ‘hipsters’ … just like there have always been young people looking to free themselves from their parents’ generation.

#36 BG on 09.26.13 at 10:09 pm

Trying to follow the general advice on this blog I decided to put my little savings in a balanced portfolio.

So I went to a TD Bank Branch today to open TD Waterhouse account, because TD has the cheapest Index Funds in Canada and you can get them only if you are a TD Bank client (which I’m not) or a TD Waterhouse client (which I was trying to become).

Of course the TD Bank branches don’t make a cent on the TD Waterhouse products.

I went there with my TFSA account number to transfer it from RBC.

The guy: “I can’t do it, I need a statement of your TFSA”
Me (knowing this is fishy): “Whatever, then let’s open an unregistered investing account”

Him: “I need your checking account number from your current bank”
Me, having verified directly with TD Waterhouse beforehand: “No you don’t”

Him: “It’s easier to open a TD Waterhouse account when you are a TD Bank client, I suggest you come back with your current Checking account number and we see what we can do then. Until then it’s IMPOSSIBLE to open your TD Waterhouse account.”

Lies and bullying.

I must be on the right track.

I filed a complaint, and will try another branch tomorrow.

#37 Smoking Man on 09.26.13 at 10:10 pm

#19 Halifax Observer on 09.26.13 at 8:05 pm
Ed, go a full 5% below the nearest comparable and you will generate interest. You can choose to bite a 5% bullet this year or a 15% bullet next year. Your listing has to look like a good deal. Get’r’done!!
……………………………………………

There is a baby Smoking Man in your hood. Son #1

He is opening an office On the Dartmouth side of the bridge. Opening on Monday. Go say Hi, If you need a ADT security system say, I know the Smoking Man.

You will get a deal.

You Can see the office on McDonald Bridge. Sign wont be up for a few weeks.

Also, he’s looking for installers and Sales people if you know a few poor lads out of work.

#38 JimH on 09.26.13 at 10:10 pm

#25 Realtor #1 (Why do all realtors say that?)
“Looking over some sales of this week and prices are
Still solid… there will Be (sic) no crash… prices will not hit 09 levels now I’m saying prices will not hit 2010 levels…”
====================================
“Looking over ‘SOME’ sales???? What does that mean???? Ignoring others, I suppose…

Anyway; You go, boy! Yippee! Nobody, bar nobody believes in the absolute power of positive thinking like the pimps of real estate!

Your optimism is as well-placed as was the optimism of the New Orleans pimps after Katrina. {(“We done seen ‘caines before! Never slowed demand for pu$$y”)… with apologies to you all and to CNN for the paraphrasing of CNN reporting}

Yes, sir! What we need now is optimism and confidence! The more the better. Shovel it on, boy!

Confidence like, say…

Xerces at the Battle of Salamis in the Greco-Persian War

The French Knights at the Battle of Agincourt 1415

Edward II at the Battle of Bannockburn

The Spanish Armada 1588

Napoleon’s march against Moscow 1812

The tiny, poor, fledgling USA declaring war against Britain, the most powerful nation in history, in 1812. (Thank God for Andrew Jackson and the Scots-Irish)

Crimea (river) and the Light Brigade

The Confederate army at the Battle of Gettysburg

Brv. Lt. Col. William J. Fetterman going against Red Cloud in 1866

Lt. Col. George Armstrong Custer at Little Big Horn, 1876

The British Army wiped out by a Zulu army at the Battle of Isandlwana during the Anglo-Zulu War, 1879

Oh, well… This is getting boring. Let’s leave the 20th and 21st Centuries out of this. We are all too familiar with the price over-confidence demands.

Propaganda, myths and outright lies can all be put to good use, as you realtarts (sic) well know. . .

But a word of caution, “Realtor #1″… just don’t fall into the trap of believing them yourself!

#39 young & foolish on 09.26.13 at 10:12 pm

Condos are the new rentals …. except now the developers can get their return back quickly and pass on the maintenance/rental issues to the individual owners.

Smart

#40 JimH on 09.26.13 at 10:12 pm

#33 KommyKim

believe me, it is!

#41 Donald Trump on 09.26.13 at 10:17 pm

As per usual…I have to solve the worlds latest problems.

The solution is described below:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MU9iZsqyrUM

If one follows the vision outlined in 1960’s Sci Fi movies…and applies them …ie everyone not be so damn selfish and reduce their Al Gored carbon footprint by at leat 3 orders of magnitude…..the real world(outside Toronto)can be a paradise.

PS note hot shrinkage (crew) member

#42 Obvious Truth on 09.26.13 at 10:22 pm

#25

Being a realtor is a tough job. People like me give you a hard time. Push you to your limits.

For years it’s been different. Hope you were wise enough to know that you should make hay when the sun shines and save fir a rainy day.

The charts say first stop is 07 for pricing. Prices will blow through 09.

I do realize you’re in the hustling sales business so it’s hard to see big picture.

On an aside I’ve been finding it hard to believe that most people still just own GIC’s as continually stated by Garth.

Met with my insurance guy today who also does the CFP thing. I never bought anything but term from him but I changed the conversation to investing. He got excited but I was asking only to know what others were doing.

He said that just now people are asking about equities after selling at the bottom in 08. Only a few have begun to buy his stupid expensive mutual funds as of yet.

Couldn’t believe it. He says mentally most people just can’t handle investing. They buy the top and never want to buy what’s down. Says his job is impossible. And the new mutual fund rules will separate and show all fees for the year separately. Yikes. All that Garth has been preaching.

So if the #1 realtor and all his buds are loaded to the gills with real estate and only Garth’s small army owns equities we know what happens. If 4% is the catalyst then look out below. Air pocket to 07. We’ll see from there. Well likely see 8% in the next few years. Still not bad historically.

Chances are it gets ugly because buyers are all trapped. None left. Others will be scared. People with cash wait for the world is coming to an end headline.

Meanwhile all will notice equities.

Who thinks Blues and Reds solve their political problems with both getting the spending they want? Say, military and infrastructure. Isn’t that how they get re elected.

#43 JimH on 09.26.13 at 10:22 pm

#5 Smoking Man’s Old Man
“Talked to my financial advisor recently, and with a conservative return of 4.5 to 5.5 can blow through 60K a year and die broke at 90. Sounds good to me.
I used to be an over achiever. Now, I just watch others chase their tails, and for what?”
====================================
You plan to die at 90? The only people who want to live to be 91 (and beyond) are 90 year-olds!

God, man; what a bitter disappointment. You’re NOT an ‘OVER-achiever’!

I used to think that you were just stupid. You’re not.

You’re a classic ‘UNDER-achiever’, man. Get over it.

#44 young & foolish on 09.26.13 at 10:34 pm

You’ll never make money in ETFs …. man up and ride the trends.

Anybody could see that on-line video viewing was coming on strong … did you buy Netflix last year? Sell Apple when Jobs disappeared?

#45 Obvious Truth on 09.26.13 at 10:42 pm

BG.

Keep at it. Banks always try to be a pain in the ass unless you want a mortgage.

Many years ago I moved money to Royal. 1% cash bonus days. Anyway the said I couldn’t move bank bond at 6% without cashing them first because they didn’t sell them.

With 2years left on 5 year bonds I would lose all interest.

Waited a day and then called to say I wanted the transfer papers back because scotia was willing to take them and they would match the bonus.

Got a call later that day saying they needed more time because they may have made a mistake.

I never talked to scotia and the took the whole account.

Old realtor trick.

#46 T.O. RENTER on 09.26.13 at 10:43 pm

#23
I do remember back in the 80’s some provision for dwellings to be no smaller than 400sqft.?

#47 Canadian Watchdog on 09.26.13 at 10:47 pm

Q2 provincial debt numbers are in. Spot which debt product is growing at the fastest rate for major provinces: chart Hint: it can be used to consolidate outstanding debt, like credit cards.

Perhaps the most shocking is BC's outstanding personal LOCs that grew at a whopping 11.4% in Q2 compared to last year: chart This includes any HELOC's that have not been securitized into MBS as residential mortgages.

No wonder why OSFI said this the other day: Low rates creating false sense of security

The head of the federal bank regulator says she remains concerned that low interest rates are lulling Canadians into a false sense of security – her comments suggesting OSFI could still ratchet down already-tight underwriting.

“The longer it (low interest rates) goes on, the more people can start to think this is normal and it’s not normal; it’s very, very far from normal,” Julie Dickson, OSFI superintendent. “I think that’s the big concern that I would have right now and I think there are many others who feel the same way.”

Well Ms. Dickson, I find it very contradicting when the bad cop pretending to be good cop (i.e. banks regulating themselves) happens to be the very same institution who deregulated the industry and helped fuel household debt to unsustainable levels.

I can't wait until it implodes prompting bureaucrats to run around like headless chickens trying to find someone to blame it all on.

#48 Mister Obvious on 09.26.13 at 10:52 pm

Vancouver has two free daily newspapers, ‘24 Hours’ and ‘Metro’. Well OK, they’re not so much newspapers as they are real estate pumping flyers.

But now things have become desperate. These little rags are simply rife with full page ads for ‘recently-built’, ‘soon-to-be-completed’, ‘not-yet-started’ and ‘may-never-see-light-of-day’ condo towers.

All are lacklustre, uninspired columns of crap identical to the many hundreds already pointing to the pewter skies of La-La

It’s over. It did not end well. The pool of hapless schlubs who can qualify for a quarter million by fogging a mirror is now dry as the Aral Sea.

Man, I so much love being a renter here.

#49 Son of Ponzi on 09.26.13 at 10:55 pm

Garth,
You and many posters keep referring to homeowners, rather than home”owers”.
Remember, it’s the bank who owns it, until the mortgage is paid in full.

full.

#50 Ray Skunk on 09.26.13 at 10:57 pm

#36 BG

I hear ya… I went down to the TD Waterhouse branch/office/thingy under the TD Centre in Toronto’s PATH to discuss opening an account. Set up an appointment and everything. They couldn’t even open up one for me there and then… sent me away to do it myself online. Ho hum.

Despite their utter uselessness in service, the product has been good. Ideal if you’re a TD customer as you can bundle the online piece in with your web access and easily transfer funds around.

#51 Ray Skunk on 09.26.13 at 11:02 pm

#39

Condos are the new rentals …. except now the developers can get their return back quickly and pass on the maintenance/rental issues to the individual owners.

Smart
—————————————————

Yup, why do you think Brad Lamb is always preaching about how much money there is to be made buying then renting out one of his developed condos?

If there was that much positive cashflow in it, why doesn’t he cut out the middleman and rent out his condos himself?

He could start his own chain of rental buildings. Heck, he could go the whole hog and start his own REIT. Go public on the TSX – the sky’s the limit!

#52 young & foolish on 09.26.13 at 11:02 pm

Why do so many people believe in RE? It’s rather simple really, cause you’ve got to live somewhere, and it’s going to cost you either way.

You know that all those condos will be absorbed so long as people move into large urban centers. People buy on that belief. Sort of of like buying a stock with future earnings priced in.

#53 Smoking Man on 09.26.13 at 11:07 pm

An famous author who is getting raked over the coals for going against the collective.

I hate when the collective gangs up on creatives

His website, Its not me don’t get excited. I have 24 fans on here, go give this dude some support.

http://pub31.bravenet.com/guestbook/show.php?usernum=2595050627&cpv=1

My post on his web site;

Just found out about you, don’t read much and write really badly.

Just like to say there are not too many people out there that are in positions of influence who have conviction and stick to there guns knowing it might upset the collective mob.

I totally see your point about teaching and writing only what you have a passion for. Today the education industrial complex has descended to obedience training for dumb down dogs.

People literally memorizing, regurgitating and earning obedience certificates with the ultimate goal of making it to the big leagues. The office cube, and learning all the cool acronyms, who fall to pieces when faced with a unexpected surprise like a flat tire.

Hang in there, don’t let the mob push you around.

Dyslexic Smoking Man

#54 Firebot on 09.26.13 at 11:14 pm

http://canadianimmigrant.ca/settling…housing-market

Immigration continues to be a driving force behind the strength of the Canadian housing market, says a new study.

More than a half of immigrants to Canada purchase a home within three years of arriving, says the study by Genworth Financial Canada.
“The desire for home ownership among new immigrants is widespread,” says the report. The study is based on a phone poll of residents who have come to Canada within the past 10 years.

#55 young & foolish on 09.26.13 at 11:15 pm

Foolish truism:

It’s never good to owe a lot of money … unless that borrowed money is making a reliable return.

#56 Doug in London on 09.26.13 at 11:18 pm

@Nosty in Knickerland, post #14:
So what, exactly, does your long winded explanation have to do with over priced condos?

#57 Son of Ponzi on 09.26.13 at 11:25 pm

Mister obvious #48.
Agree with you the 24 Hours and Metro crap sheets are becoming a major ad platform for the RE industry.
Just today, 24 hours had one page headlined:
“With lowest interest rates on record, now is the time to buy”.
It’s the old spin on: “Buy now or be priced out forever”.

#58 FleetwoodBoy on 09.26.13 at 11:34 pm

#36, #50 I did mine online. Pretty easy and turned it around in about seven days. Took ID into the local TD bank with the forms.

#59 FTP - First Time Poster on 09.26.13 at 11:38 pm

Garth,

I see that the dreaded LOC you referred to as “collateralized” has reared its ugly head. Seems more and more banks are starting to head that way. The wifey had one just after we got married, I told the bank to lower the rate, they said that “there’s a lot involved”. I handed her a bank draft for the balance and told her to go close the thing out.

#60 Snake on 09.26.13 at 11:38 pm

1)US pending home sales slow for third month running

http://news.yahoo.com/us-pending-home-sales-slow-third-month-running-145037412.html

2)11 cities where most homes are bought with cash

http://homes.yahoo.com/photos/11-cities-where-most-home-sales-are-all-cash-slideshow/1-miami-11-cities-where-most-home-sales-are-all-cash-photo-1380244210995.html

#61 DC on 09.26.13 at 11:41 pm

why can’t one of them move into the others place while they list their place on the market. If it doesn’t work out they can move back. If their place sells they can then move to a bigger place.

I guess they need a bigger place because they both want to keep their stuff. Most people have an emotional attachment to stuff and don’t want to part with it. Hence the need for bigger places to hold more stuff.

#62 Cici on 09.26.13 at 11:42 pm

#31 espressobob
Sorry to be rude but from under what rock did “you” just crawl out??? Hippies are so sixties & seventies and many are wealthy! Dripping in cash in case you didn’t notice? Care for a rebuttal?
_____________________________________________Rebuttal? Why, I never said anything about hippies or how wealthy they may or may not be. Are you having an acid flashback? All I said was that yuppies (who were also notably rich, thank you very much) have grown up now, so we need a new, better-fitting adjective to describe our young urbanites, and I merely pointed out that in “hipster,” we already had that perfect.
OK, maybe I was a bit of asshole about it. Sorry Joseph, no harm intended. I’m a bit fiery tonight.

#63 Snake on 09.26.13 at 11:44 pm

Vancouver man duped $500K in fake romance

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/vancouver-man-duped-500k-fake-romance-001617275.html
———————————————-
Damn that my down payment for a house

#64 Another Vancity Renter on 09.27.13 at 12:42 am

Do any of u clownes no how to use a spel cheker?

#65 Smoking Man's Old Man on 09.27.13 at 12:48 am

To the commenters of my post #5.

Yes, interspection should have been introspection. Yes, the next 4 or 5 months in Vancouver probably will suck weather wise ( last 6 months were amazing ). Never said I wanted to live to 90, it was more of an outside number for calculation purposes.

My point was only that I got to spend the day the way I wanted. As I do everyday. I don’t wish my weekdays away longing for the weekends. My health is exceptional for my age. My stress is minimal. How many people 50 years of age can make that claim?

Todays lifestyle is a killer. I know people have to shelter/feed/ and clothes themselves. But, hopefully, we don’t need to own a McMansion/drive a German sedan/ or wear Lululemon to have a sense of worth.

I don’t agree with Smoking Man’s way of life, we are complete opposites, but his comments are bang on when it comes to the brain washing of the masses and the loss of critical thinking.

#66 ApplePi on 09.27.13 at 12:55 am

@Young & Foolish: AAPL was @ $369 when Steve Jobs died in October, 2011. The lowest its been since then was November, 2011: $363.

Wall Street didn’t like Steve Jobs because he didn’t care about Wall Street.

After he died, Wall Street thought they could control Apple. AAPL went on a huge bull run sucking in suckers to $700 and has since “collapsed” to $486.

It’s up +35% in the two years since Jobs died. Not that I’m recommending buying AAPL, but it will survive its founder’s death.

#67 Tom from Mississauga on 09.27.13 at 1:06 am

Over 750 resale condo units within walking distance of Square One. Over 1,000 across the city. Good luck with unloading guys. Ditched mine this time last year in Lakeview.

#68 Kilt on 09.27.13 at 2:36 am

Why not just rent it out. If rents are so high, you may even be cash flow positive.
I would then take out a HELOC and pay off your HBP or throw the money in a self directed TFSA. As Garth mentioned, there are some good deals on REITs. Just stay clear of the ones with debt.

Kilt.

#69 DW on 09.27.13 at 2:50 am

Robert Schillers interview on BNN was a real let down, without any real commitment to let people know the dangers of the RE market we are in.

#70 AgentSmith on 09.27.13 at 3:34 am

#23 Is bang on. 23 Skidoo how do you do?

For real. Liberals have an agenda based on densification that will lead to better results for environmental groups.
In the core of the Matrix you see not only does our future PM “Burn Trees” and wants us all to have access to the “wacky tabaccay”…why?
Easier to swallow the “Pill” that has you stuffed in a box 56 stories in the air looking out over further densification.
It’s all right in the Matrix. Weed Boy Liberal and his cronies are WWF sympathists. I’m not talking Hulk Hogan.
World Wildlife Fed cronies surround our next Liberal PM.

Close off access to greenbelt *Toronto* same in *Ottawa*
No more building EAST and WEST in Ottawa…just UP UP and AWAY in the Core with CONDOs.

Smoke Weed in your 300sq apartment without making a HUGE environmental “footprint”
Vote Liberal.
Make your “footprint” at the bank..

#71 Freedom First on 09.27.13 at 3:56 am

“Real men get liquid”.

Perfect saying. I love it. Will try it out on the next RE agent and mortgage pusher I talk at. I don’t think they will love it as I do. As a matter of fact, I think a few of them who read Garth’s blog will $hit their pants/panties…….Freedom First.

#72 Future Expatriate on 09.27.13 at 4:10 am

Weird Republican Burlington teen Band is US style?

Hey, Canada gifted the US with Justin Bieber…

#73 Signatures Condo on 09.27.13 at 6:58 am

There are too many condos in Toronto downtown. Let’s buy one in Downtown Markham!! Price is less than $500 per Sqrt feet including parking and locker. VIVA across the street and next to a cinema. Signatures Condo….

#74 Aussie Roy on 09.27.13 at 7:29 am

Aussie Update

What do you do when cashed up buyers from overseas start running out?.

ANZ bank Australia has the answer, start lending them money back by the Aussie taxpayer.

In October last year, Phil Chronican, chief executive of ANZ Australia, warned Fairfax radio station 3AW that:

“when there is a lot of cheap money around that results in asset price inflation”.

11 months later, with Sydney Real Estate going nuts, ANZ now reports that:

ANZ OFFERING LOANS TO CHINA RESIDENTS TO BUY HOMES IN AUSTRALIA
BN 09/26 03:18 *ANZ SEES AUSTRALIA HOME SHORTAGE RISING TO 370K BY 2015 BN 09/26 03:17 *ANZ ESTIMATES DWELLING SHORTFALL OF 270,000, CHRONICAN SAYS BN 09/26 03:17 *ANZ’S CHRONICAN: RISING COSTS, RED TAPE TO CONSTRAIN BUILDING BN 09/26 03:16 *ANZ’S CHRONICAN: GOVT SUBSIDIES WORSEN AFFORDABILITY BN 09/26 03:16 *ANZ’S CHRONICAN: SEES 5% RISE IN AUST. HOUSE PRICES NEXT 12 MOS BN 09/26 03:16 *ANZ’S CHRONICAN: WEAK OUTLOOK, CAUTION TO MODERATE PRICE GROWTH BN 09/26 03:15 *ANZ’S CHRONICAN: AUSTRALIAN HOUSING BUBBLE CONCERNS OVERSTATED.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/09/anz-sells-bubble-and-mortgages-in-china/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign

Turns out it’s not just China

“Our Australian Property Loans makes it simpler and more convenient for ANZ customers to purchase, refinance, or release equity on their Australian residential property, whether for owner occupation or investment purposes.”

http://www.anz.com.au/singapore/en/Personal/property-loans/australian-property/

“Who can apply for an Australian Property Loans?

– Australian or New Zealand citizens & passport holders who are not living in, or tax residents of Australia.
– Singaporean citizens and permanent residents.
– Foreigners who are residing and working in Singapore.
– Foreigners who are resident of Indonesia, Taiwan, Malaysia, Cambodia, China, Dubai, Fiji, Hong Kong, and Philippines, and not working or residing in Singapore.”

#75 sarabeth on 09.27.13 at 7:29 am

Ed wrote: “and it will cost me more out of pocket to rent than I currently pay to own…”

On what planet? Are you nuts? Rent plus utilities couldn’t cost you more than your mortgage plus condo fees plus utilities AND taxes…no way, no how.

I rent. I have ALWAYS rented. It is just me and my cat.

I now have a lovely bright above ground basement apartment in a quiet neighborhood on dead end street…off street private parking for my car, a two block walk to the bus stop. One mile from a nice large shopping center. 3 carpeted bedrooms…living, kitchen and dining room ( Which I am using for a craft room ). Windows in every room that are 3ft x 3ft. Central air/heat. Stacked laundry and a 4 piece bathroom. $1000 all inclusive.

And I am retired living on a fixed income…you and your girl friend combined probably make much more than I do these days. You could do even better renting than I have done… you just have to get over the thought that owning a home is the way to go. That is becoming so 1990…. *g*….

It CAN be done. And as more an more people who own these condos and multi-million dollar tear down homes… start to rent them out (like your girl friend) the rents WILL come down.

Follow Garth’s advice…get out while you can. Rent…

#76 Ignore the Bearded Mystic Oracle at Your Own Peril on 09.27.13 at 7:50 am

“Real men get liquid.”

Truer words were never spoken…

#77 Nemesis on 09.27.13 at 7:54 am

@FE/#72

[SALON] – Zach Galifianakis gives Justin Bieber the slapping you wish you could

…”Eventually, reflecting on Bieber’s cockiness threw the comedian into a fit of rage. “You know what, I don’t like your attitude, to be honest!” he yelled. “You’re too young to be smoking pot and pee-peeing in buckets and driving up and down on the highway fast!”

Galifianakis then attacked Bieber with a belt, delivering America a healthy dose of schadenfreude. “You’re not a child, and that’s the point. So I can hit a grown man with a belt,” he said.”….

http://www.salon.com/2013/09/26/zach_galifianakis_gives_justin_bieber_the_interview_you_wish_you_could/

#78 live within your means on 09.27.13 at 7:54 am

Hubby installed a security system in our house many yrs ago. If it goes off, he & 3 neighbours, who have keys to our house, receive a call. While we were away this summer it went off several times but all was fine. Apparently, even a spider moving in front of a sensor can turn it on.

Last mo. while at home an alarm went off & one neighbour (A&A), assuming it was our ours, entered our house to check it out. I had fallen asleep on the sofa. Turned out it was our next door neighbour’s alarm & the only neighbour who has a key to the house was also away. I didn’t know they even had an alarm system. The siren blared for 10 minutes & finally went off.

A&A had a system put in yrs ago, monitored by a co. which would notify the police. When they’d go out, they often forget to close a window & the curtains near by would move & set off the alarm. If hubby was home he’d enter their home or check the outside before the police arrived. After they paid a few fines, they no longer use it.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/false-alarms-plague-halifax-fire-police-1.925421

They were burglarized once. Ripped out a side door & frame. We were on our deck 2 houses away and didn’t hear a thing – we have wide lots. Next morning she showed me the mess they made, plus told me all the stuff they stole, including her jewelry from the old country.

We have a safe in a closet in the basement, bolted to the cement floor. I have some lovely gold jewelry hubby’s grandmother gave me the first time I met her, plus some Mom gave me from the old country.

A few yrs ago, FIL in France, chipped away a space in his basement wall. Neighbours wondered about the noise :-). He put a safe in it. You’d never know from looking at it.

#79 Gospel of Garth on 09.27.13 at 7:58 am

Garth 17:1 “And it came to pass that the bearded mystic oracle came down from the mountain with the two stone tablets.
The crowd became quiet and the bearded oracle fixed his steady gaze on the audience and he began to read the tablets.
“Thou shalt honour liquidity above all else.
Thou shalt not overload yourself with debt.
Thou shalt not lie to yourself about your debt fueled lifestyle.
Thou shalt avoid the temptation to buy into this insanely high real estate market.
Thou shalt educate thyself in financial literacy.
Thou shalt read this blog to see the financial light.
Thou shalt reap the benefits of following the message of the bearded mystic oracle.

The sky darkened and lightning streaked across the sky. Thunder roared and a voice was heard,
“this is my financial prophet in whom I am well pleased”.

The audience sat in stunned silence.

Unless thou desireth smitten loins, stop it. — Garth

#80 Herb on 09.27.13 at 8:03 am

#70 AgentSmith,

I bet you’re really Smart!

#81 Nemesis on 09.27.13 at 8:31 am

How is Zen like a YVR BusStop?… you could spending hours waiting in the rain for one… and then three show up at the same time…

[G&M] – Zoning proposals in Vancouver spark city hall protest

…”A slowly rising tide of angst over development and density in Vancouver officially lapped at the steps of city hall this week as residents lined up at meetings and rallied outside to protest against the pace of change.

Some were angry, calling the Vision party, which rules at city hall, “corrupt” and “the party that does what developers tell them to.” …

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/zoning-proposals-spark-city-hall-protest/article14561517/

[G&M] – Ontario Liberals, Tories seek to ‘ram through’ bill benefiting construction firm, Horwath says

…”NDP Leader Andrea Horwath is accusing Ontario’s Liberal government of using a legislative accord with the Progressive Conservatives to “ram through” a law to help a construction company that donated large sums of money to both parties.”…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-liberals-tories-seek-to-ram-through-bill-benefiting-construction-firm-horwath-says/article14561948/

[G&M] – Canada chocolate factory may get new life as marijuana farm

…”It’s a glimmer of hope for the town of Smith Falls, which has so far embraced Tweed’s growing plan.

“In the last five or six years, we’ve lost 1,700 jobs,” said Dennis Staples, mayor of the town of 9,000 people.”…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/canada-chocolate-factory-may-get-new-life-as-marijuana-farm/article14563490/

#82 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.27.13 at 9:12 am

@ #73 Signatures Condo on 09.27.13 at 6:58 am
There are too many condos in Toronto downtown. Let’s buy one in Downtown Markham!! Price is less than $500 per Sqrt feet including parking and locker. VIVA across the street and next to a cinema. Signatures Condo….
———————————-

Nice SPAM.

What do you think this is… Kijiji?

By the way – who the hell would buy in “Markham’s First Exclusive Hotel Condominium”??? Haven’t people learned their lessons from the One King West/Trump/Shangri-La experiences?

I was hoping that was sarcasm. — Garth

#83 TheCatFoodLady on 09.27.13 at 9:19 am

Aw come on Garth – I’m eagerly awaiting the financial begats, the ark, Exodus & (fiscal), Revelations…

The double/triple counting, the outright lies, the ‘investment advice’ for buying & flipping or renting condos is glaring once pointed out. I look at the “You too can get rich investing in condo!” ads, haul out the calculator & it boggles my mind how anyone can fall for that crap. Maybe I’m too easily boggled. Young wanna be buyers have known nothing but rising markets. Their parents have for the most part, done ‘well’ buying. THAT is what they’re used to seeing.

For many of the younger crowd, forward thinking is trying to figure out what party you’re going to hit next Friday night. Number crunching is for old fogies & when the media is turning into a shill for real estate – that’s about all they’re exposed to.

And it’s a shame. Not only are they being convinced to lie up their meager assets on highly leverged & questionable housing ‘investments’ but as pointed out earlier in the week, they’re tied down big time. While it’s true not everyone wants to to remain mobile or needs to, there are few reasons a young individual or couple starting out should attach shackles to themselves in the form of housing they really can’t afford.

Life has changed, (doesn’t it always?), & today’s norms are so different from when I was a youngster starting out back in the Pleistocene Age. I was mobile, chasing jobs & had a ball living in different parts of our wonderful country. Even spent 2 years overseas – awesome experience for persepctive. I’m kicking 53 in the teeth now & enjoy having a city I call HOME. I spent 40 years being rootless & while it was great, I’m becoming fossilized enough to enjoy stability & routine far more.

I’ve been tied up this week with some elderly neighbours whose health is quickly deteriorating. They have enough for ‘normal’ living but in their 80s, the definition of normal is changing quickly. Her mind is going, his body is failing. They don’t quite add up to one whole person between them. And proud. Lordy people, pride & stubborness can be lethal. They really need to be in an assisted living facility. They can’t afford it, he tells me. I don’t know – just not sure how all that works. They have no family nearby & neighbours are filling in as best we can.

They didn’t save enough. They didn’t plan. And right now, they don’t want to face realities. It’s sobering to see that play out in front of you & realize to how many people this could apply starting in a decade or more. One couple is sucking dry, (physically & emotionally), 3 sets of neighbours & we are the youngest. What happens to our generation? We didn’t have enough kids to keep the current system working well. Hell, it is NOT working well now & we’re just starting to see the merest hints of the burden of a big generation beginning to age.

Gonna get grim out there for those not willing to cut back the lattes & McMansions now & start serious planning & making the hard decisions. Turst me – a few cutbacks aren’t as hard as depending on the availability of others to do simple things for you.

#84 Penny Henny on 09.27.13 at 9:38 am

hipster, a term from Seinfeld. hipster dufus

#85 20th Century Limited on 09.27.13 at 9:49 am

Hey Garth –

Being a long-time apartment resident at Y&E, I’ve watched this condo-building insanity of recent years with a mixture of distaste and pity. Distaste for these vulgar skyboxes, both cheaply built and hastily erected; and pity for the aptly-named property virgins – who are legion in the area – blithely signing away their freedom for what I’m not sure. The billboards touting this 2221 project have been visible for quite some time now, along with the signs for the twin-tower condos just east on Eglinton near Redpath, the tower complex on Roehampton and Redpath, the new tower on Roehampton just east of Yonge, the proposed massive twin-tower complex on the NE corner of Y&E…you get the picture. Small wonder only dozens of potential ‘property’ owners showed. Even the economically illiterate – who unfortunately are the majority around here – eventually figure things out.

#86 James Bond on 09.27.13 at 9:53 am

5 yr Bonds going down, rates cut coming ?

I said some weeks ago I expect a cut of up to .25%, after the rapid 1% increase earlier in the year. I will let you know when it comes. — Garth

#87 young & foolish on 09.27.13 at 9:53 am

RE is a long term investment …. the longer the better (especially in cities which are growing). We rent in an older building which has been owned by the same family since the 70s. Our rent is part of their “dividend” income.
Reasonably cheap living in a big city.

God loves renters!

#88 Canadian Watchdog on 09.27.13 at 10:10 am

Worth reading. The developer who wants to make Canadian housing affordable

Just remember these words: looting, fraud and predatory lending.

#89 Rick on 09.27.13 at 10:13 am

Amusing blog. I’m a confirmed renter, got a goob job and cash in the bank. I got a flyer the other day from a non-profit company, Options for Homes selling some boxes in low rises in my hood. I can pay cash and have no mortgage and I plan to stay here anyway. However, I might wanna move in with a hot gf in the future, so I wouldn’t wanna get snookered in a 500 sq ft one-bedroom box like the example you gave today.

From an investment angle, do you see the non-profit option any differently from the inflated for profit condos like the one in today’s blog?

Drill down. They are offering two mortgages and 100% debt. Great deal. — Garth

#90 Snake on 09.27.13 at 10:38 am

Realtor Patrick Gunville·fired for telling truth about Vancouver real estate bubble

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zMTHIkv-n8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iaIyCUToIOA

#91 -=jwk=- on 09.27.13 at 10:58 am

re OSFI”Well Ms. Dickson, I find it very contradicting when the bad cop pretending to be good cop (i.e. banks regulating themselves) happens to be the very same institution who deregulated the industry and helped fuel household debt to unsustainable levels”

CMHC was not under the OSFI umbrella until recently they didn’t have to follow any rules. Now that the OSFI is taking a look…we should see some changes.

#92 Doberman on 09.27.13 at 11:13 am

Garth, there is something you keep missing. The reason so many condos are being built is cause foreign investment is fleeing Europe and bail ins, and flocking to Canadian RE. They wouldn’t be building so many if the demand wasn’t coming. For now RE is considered a safe haven and until that changes, likely 2020, RE will keep rising. It’s not a popluar truth renters waiting to buy face, but it’s the current reality.
This blog is been going for 5 years and has just been wrong. Your logic is spot on and correlates with past corrections from the 80’s and 90’s – but this is a whole new ball game with different dynamics.

There is zero evidence of correlation between condo prices and immigration. If you have any, feel free to provide it. And outside of a spec of a place called Cyprus, there have been no European bail-ins. Isn’t it time for your open house? — Garth

#93 edmonton guy on 09.27.13 at 11:33 am

It ain’t so different here in Edmonton Alberta. Many projects built in 2008 like the Meridian & Icon II still have suites sitting empty & for sale for 5 years now. Because there is a new Arena being built we’ve got for huge skyscrapers being built! One huge tower on Jasper Ave is 37 stories high, and started advertising in 2008, yet it is almost half finished and only 23 suites have sold out if 100, in the meantime two 30 plus story towers have just broke ground, and the have started in another 37 story tower right DT. In addition another 40 story tower called the encore is planned up the street… scary.

#94 Firebot on 09.27.13 at 11:37 am

see #54 Firebot
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/research/housing/images/figure3-1-eng.gif

25% ownership within 12 months. Over 50% ownership within 3 years for new immigrants

Actually we know 75% of immigrants do not buy in the first year and 50% do not buy until after three years. But you said this boosts condo prices, and in the GTA. Show us, please. — Garth

#95 Evangeline on 09.27.13 at 11:40 am

#83 Catfood Lady “Aw come on Garth – I’m eagerly awaiting the … Revelations …”

:)

He’s already told us who will be left behind.

#96 TorontoBull on 09.27.13 at 11:50 am

‘There is zero evidence of correlation between condo prices and immigration. If you have any, feel free to provide it. And outside of a spec of a place called Cyprus, there have been no European bail-ins.”
And there is 0 evidence about 70% of condos being bought by investors – just a guestimate, no hard data!
As per Cyprus, LOTS of Russian money got burnt there and if you are an investor looking for relatively stable place to preserve your capital, Canada’s RE looks attractive.

The 70% spec number has been well documented since new condo buyers must declare their intention to be investors, and pay more down. — Garth

#97 Pale, wheezing Musty Basement Dweller on 09.27.13 at 11:50 am

About hipsters and yuppies. I don’t know, I think yuppies still exist. And hipsters too but they’re newer and poorer and longing for some hippie in their lives but like to dress from higher class thrift stores.

Since I dumped my house about 6 months ago, (thanks Garth smartest thing I have done yet), I live in a nice apartment in downtown Vancouver. Yuppies seems to describe my building occupants in Yaletown the best.. hot young couples with nice jobs and clothes and little designer dogs.

There is absolutely no hippie relation in them that I can see.

#98 Evangeline on 09.27.13 at 11:51 am

#81 Nemesis: “How is Zen like a YVR BusStop?… you could spendin ghours waiting in the rain for one… and then three show up at the same time…”

I don’t know anything about Zen. Is it like selling at the bottom and then seeing a breakout the next day?

#99 Obvious Truth on 09.27.13 at 12:01 pm

#92 Doberman

The reason prices continued to go up is that rates kept going down and mortgages were easier to get. Not to mention banks increased the debt ratio they used to base approvals on.

It’s all based on leverage so it’s the lending math that matters.

Problem now is more are in so when the math changes the correction will be more pronounced.

Long term real estate charts even going back 1000 years show about 1.5% yearly price appreciation. Even through much more turbulent times and eras of currency devaluation. Hate to break it but it’s not the first time European countries have wiped out their citizens money. The people who live there know that. They own lots of gold and don’t keep any money in the bank. They would rather eat crusty bread every day than owe like Canadians. The danger is here not there. The crazy foreigners got crushed. Deleveraging there is done.

Don’t need to look for obscure reasons or attach emotion to it.

#100 Pale, wheezing Musty Basement Dweller on 09.27.13 at 12:01 pm

Forgot to mention I rent the condo. By the owners calculator she figures she is subsidizing me $450 per month. That is just real dollars per month and would not include what she could be getting if she invested her money elsewhere. And if the market softens (in progress) the monthly losses investment wise for her are just sad.

#101 Realtor # 1 on 09.27.13 at 12:13 pm

Like I said before do your own research and subscribe to TO solds and look at the prices for semis and detached especially the in demand areas, they are still getting good dollar amounts.

rates are up are will go down a little before they rise again. It has been four years since the GFC and we are still waiting for that definitive moment when it turns.
You need something to make it crash not the same old stats like 70% owernship – why are sales only down 10% if 70% of us own homes, makes no sense. Or baby boomers putting their homes on the market, When?
If TREB stats mean nothing then those mean nothing.

In the past there has been a spike in rates or unemployment we don’t see that here and thats why banks are not worried but you should be because you need something that will take out a large pool of people out of buying today you don’t.
You can get a four year mortgage for 3.2%

#102 Pale, wheezing Musty Basement Dweller on 09.27.13 at 12:13 pm

As a comparison one hot young yuppie couple could qualify for a downtown condo and get approved today under present rules.

It would probably take about 6 hipsters to qualify (yes even with today’s rules) for the same thing. And they probably couldn’t get organized enough to make it happen.

#103 Fed-up on 09.27.13 at 12:14 pm

@#52 young & foolish on 09.26.13 at 11:02 pm

——————————————————————————————

Your theory applies to nearly every country in the world, not just Canada, and has been true for the last 2000 years. It doesn’t explain the collapse in prices elsewhere and why Canucks still think their s^%t doesn’t stink.

#104 Realtor # 1 on 09.27.13 at 12:14 pm

Dont be angry with me you only have yourself to blame.

why wait three years to buy a home only to buy it at higher price or hopefully at the same price. You made a mistake and now you are angry at yourself. Like Garth said before there will be no crash, it was a mistake not to buy when you first starting looking and it was a mistake to listen to everyone on this blog.

#105 Grooby on 09.27.13 at 12:18 pm

#12 SpiltBongWater,

Hipsters have been around for well over a decade. Hipsters Yuppies. Hipsters have bigger glasses and spend a lot of time getting dressed in a way that looks like they have spent no time. Second hand sweaters from the local op shop are integral, and beards are also generally mandatory.
Major hang-outs include Williamsburg, Brooklyn, Austin, Portland, North Melbourne, and so forth.

Yuppies, on the other hand, tend to live in downtown condos, shop extensively on SkyMall and Holt Renfrew, and read GQ.

Hipsters now are really just a parody of themselves. The so called ‘death of the hipster’ occurred some time ago.

Here’s a great article on the topic from NY Magazine.

http://nymag.com/news/features/69129/

#106 Canadian Watchdog on 09.27.13 at 12:28 pm

#91 -=jwk=- CMHC was not under the OSFI umbrella until recently they didn’t have to follow any rules.

CMHC never was or still isn't under OSFI or F's authority. The only thing that really changed was the installment of two directors from the Finance Ministry onto CMHC's board of directors. The hope is (at least in the public's view) these two directors will influence CMHC's policy to mitigate taxpayer risk, that way when all those mortgages bonds implode on CMHC's balance sheet, they can tell Canadians they tried to be fiscally proactive, so nobody get's sued.

If want to know who CMHC really answers to, read this document.

#107 panhead on 09.27.13 at 12:28 pm

#48 Mister Obvious on 09.26.13 at 10:52 pm
Vancouver has two free daily newspapers, ‘24 Hours’ and ‘Metro’. Well OK, they’re not so much newspapers as they are real estate pumping flyers

———————————————————-

Here’s what ya do with these “papers” …
Tear off the last page for the crossword and throw the rest in the bottom of a birdcage so they can shat on them. Recycling at it’s finest …

#108 ripped on 09.27.13 at 12:54 pm

If the U.S. is in an “epic credit bubble”

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackstone-were-epic-credit-bubble-144901589.html

What the Fu is Canada in… a “septic credit bubble”

#109 TorontoBull on 09.27.13 at 12:57 pm

“The 70% spec number has been well documented since new condo buyers must declare their intention to be investors, and pay more down. — Garth”
well documented where?
please advise even if one needs to pay to get these data. Urbanation does not provide hard data though.
thx,

#110 Spaccone on 09.27.13 at 12:59 pm

Did my time in a Toronto ant farm, never again…not an ant farm or comatose suburb.

#111 dosouth on 09.27.13 at 1:13 pm

If I only had a few extra million this would have been a deal….10 million under value and in Victoria yet..

http://www.timescolonist.com/business/court-approves-4-4-million-sale-of-len-barrie-mansion-in-langford-1.640341

#112 frank le skank on 09.27.13 at 1:45 pm

#104 Realtor # 1 on 09.27.13 at 12:14 pm
why wait three years to buy a home only to buy it at higher price or hopefully at the same price.
===================================
Can you post your email so that I can contact you to represent me as a realtor, I really don’t want to be priced out forever and hope its not too late!! Please, help me!

#113 Donald Trump on 09.27.13 at 1:47 pm

#56 Doug in London on 09.26.13 at 11:18 pm

@Nosty in Knickerland, post #14:
So what, exactly, does your long winded explanation have to do with over priced condos?

====================================

Butterfly wing effect….proven scientific-metaphysical phenomenon.

#114 Mister Obvious on 09.27.13 at 2:04 pm

#29 Joe Calgary

I was very unimpressed with Robert Schillers discussion about the Canadian housing market on BNN tonight…

#69 DW

Robert Schillers interview on BNN was a real let down…

——————————————

I agree. It was if Schiller had just been reminded there was a Canada. Did someone yank him out of a meeting and stick him in front of a camera?

He did try to explain bubbles as irrational exuberance coupled with a fear of being left behind. He also said that Vancouver was probably the most bubbly.

But there was nothing there we haven’t heard a hundred times. I had expected a little more. But then again, maybe there’s nothing left to say. Ho hum.

#115 recharts on 09.27.13 at 2:08 pm

@relator #1

Like I said before do your own research and subscribe to TO solds and look at the prices for semis and detached especially the in demand areas, they are still getting good dollar amounts.

rates are up are will go down a little before they rise again. It has been four years since the GFC and we are still waiting for that definitive moment when it turns.
You need something to make it crash not the same old stats like 70% owernship – why are sales only down 10% if 70% of us own homes, makes no sense. Or baby boomers putting their homes on the market, When?
If TREB stats mean nothing then those mean nothing.

In the past there has been a spike in rates or unemployment we don’t see that here and thats why banks are not worried but you should be because you need something that will take out a large pool of people out of buying today you don’t.
You can get a four year mortgage for 3.2%

you idiot!

To SFH Avg price for >$1M has been rising for the last 6 months
To SFH Avg price for <$1M constant at 600K and under the May 2013 average value for <$1mil

Yes Semis are going up in To but guess what, they are going down in GTA
Condos in GTA are going down

Ex: high demand area (Beaches)
Avg Detached for <$1M DOWN from 850K to 820K
Avg Semi for <$1M Semi steady at 750K for the last 6 months

Stats calculated as you recommended, using Tosolds.

I hope Garth will allow this post since he allowed your shit here.

FYI I can calculate the stats for any arbitrary perimeter in To and I can hardly see the increases you are talking about. I see stagnation at best ..nothing more.
There will be no move up or down before the interest rates move drastically or the F'king deity restricts the access to credit even more.

I give no shit on whatever happens above $1M since those are uninsured mortgages and the banks are on the hook for them.

Bottom line, you are an imbecile!

#116 AgentSmith on 09.27.13 at 2:13 pm

#80 Herb
Can you see the point? I am not being smart. I don’t smoke trees. The Matrix sir. The Matrix. I am being a smart a$$
I consider Garth the Oracle in the grand scheme of things.

Oracle Garth. Neo visited the Oracle for guidance. Oracle didn’t always give you the answer he wanted..but guided him.
Garth is the Oracle.

I am making light of the 300sq foot box the Left want us living in..so we can preserve the greenlands.

Im not smart.

#117 recharts on 09.27.13 at 2:18 pm

In the past there has been a spike in rates or unemployment we don’t see that here and thats why banks are not worried but you should be because you need something that will take out a large pool of people out of buying today you don’t.
You can get a four year mortgage for 3.2%

In the past there has been a spike in rates…?

Do you care to see what is happening in the present ???????

https://twitter.com/AndreCimini/status/383539202178027520/photo/1

How about a spike in household debt.
How long do you think this is going to continue ??

You are making an appeal to our judgement. How come you don’t use yours? Is lobotomy a prerequisite to become a RE agent ?

#118 Brampton on 09.27.13 at 2:25 pm

Brampton Semis down 10K compared with May .
Very interesting
The price has been declining since then . It reached the current level in mid July

SFH steady at 450K
Semis at 360K.

#119 straight 6 on 09.27.13 at 2:56 pm

Sure! I’ll take a sarcophagus on the 15th floor.. I never did have much use for the natural world anyway.

that’s how they keep you tethered..
because there is no escape
only conformity,
or living like a criminal
crushed between freedom’s dreams
searching.

#120 happity on 09.27.13 at 2:59 pm

“Five Years Later: FHA Demands $1.7 Billion Treasury Bail Out”

Yup, another fact backing the opinions out there of USA housing market recovery.

#121 Canadian Watchdog on 09.27.13 at 3:21 pm

Some realtor just got fired for exposing CREA’s numbers. More soon.

#122 Ann on 09.27.13 at 3:29 pm

117 recharts on 09.27.13 at 2:18 pm
In the past there has been a spike in rates or unemployment we don’t see that here and thats why banks are not worried but you should be because you need something that will take out a large pool of people out of buying today you don’t.
You can get a four year mortgage for 3.2%

In the past there has been a spike in rates…?

Do you care to see what is happening in the present ???????

https://twitter.com/AndreCimini/status/383539202178027520/photo/1

How about a spike in household debt.
How long do you think this is going to continue ??

You are making an appeal to our judgement. How come you don’t use yours? Is lobotomy a prerequisite to become a RE agent ?
.******************************************
That settles it you are defiantly a basement dweller lol

#123 Victor V on 09.27.13 at 3:58 pm

#54 Firebot

Immigrant “desire” to purchase may taper off as interest rates rise and housing prices correct.

#124 Frenchy on 09.27.13 at 4:02 pm

Hi Garth! I’ve been a regular reader of your blog and really appreciate it! I think it really sums up how deep in troubles we are here in Canada. I plan to be a renter for years to come…god I make like 200000$ a year working in health care as a primary care physician and I think houses and condominiums are overvalued and innaccessible for people. Who are crazy enough to buy 800000$ condos in dowtown Montreal?? Or worse half a million dollar house in Laval, stuck in traffic everyday. I actually think it’s gonna end bad here in Quebec. Really bad. We’ve seen some comments on our real estate here in Quebec…I’d really appreciate your opinion on the matter, on Montreal especially. Our GDP sucks, the péquistes are undermining business, we actually don’t have any manufacturing industries, and we got an economy which heavily relies on construction and services financed by the Governement. Or worse restaurants and bars everywhere…fueled by consumer debt…We fellow french canadians are in deep water. It would be really nice hearing from you! Thanks

#125 Guava.ca has lost it ? on 09.27.13 at 4:06 pm

The sellers and the speculators can celebrate.
It seems that Guava.ca has lost its DOM information

I am not sure if this is a coincidence or not but the information has been reset recently and Anno Domini was set as two days ago.

As of today all properties older than 2 days show just two days on the market.

I guess it has something to do with the recent upgrade that the site went through.
However, as someone who knows a little bit about how the things are done, I can tell you that a new site template should have not resulted in such an information loss

Also I have noticed that new listings are now displayed in a more common sense format: 9 color codes are used for houses between 100K -900K and one color code (indigo) for houses above 900K

The active listings map is still following the old format with just 4 colours for the entire price range 0-infinite (TO is special)

#126 Ann's mother on 09.27.13 at 4:12 pm

Ann… I explained you 1000 times that I have very good reasons to rent him our basement.

#127 Canadian Watchdog on 09.27.13 at 4:40 pm

This is what happens when a realtor asks REBGV and CREA too many questions.

Watch this entire video first: The REAL Vancouver real estate numbers

Then the day after (warning profanity): Realtor fired for telling truth about Vancouver real estate bubble

It didn't take Don Klump long to order a hit after realizing he made a terrible mistake sending this realtor emails that were being posted on YouTube. All I know is whoever fired this poor guy just made the situation worse.

Is this another Lee sisters moment about to go viral? We'll see.

#128 Doberman on 09.27.13 at 4:44 pm

There is zero evidence of correlation between condo prices and immigration. If you have any, feel free to provide it. And outside of a spec of a place called Cyprus, there have been no European bail-ins. Isn’t it time for your open house? — Garth
———————————————————-
I enjoy reading your website and I’m no RE agent. I’m just saying times are a changin and what use to move markets up and down isn’t the same in this bizzaro world.
As for bail ins you can count on more of them in the not too distant future – the Europeans know it’s coming so they’re preparing in advance. I hope you’ve pulled your money out and got of fleet of Hummer’s as a store of value.

#129 Smoking Man on 09.27.13 at 4:55 pm

#124 Frenchy on 09.27.13 at 4:02 pm

You just told one big fib, how do I know,

I invented lying.

#130 ripped on 09.27.13 at 5:12 pm

#128 Smoking Man

I invented lying.

====================================

You invented stupid

#131 zeeman1 on 09.27.13 at 5:25 pm

“#124 Frenchy on 09.27.13 at 4:02 pm

You just told one big fib, how do I know,

I invented lying.”

Good call SM.

But the question is why did Frenchy bother?

#132 jess on 09.27.13 at 5:27 pm

Kiev’s luxury ghost town
foreign buyers?

Oksana Grytsenko in Kiev
The Guardian, Monday 16 September 2013 22.22 BST

========

#133 Mister Obvious on 09.27.13 at 6:11 pm

#127 Canadian Watchdog

The CREA no doubt operates under a cloak of underhandedness and suspicious statistics reporting. OK, outright lies even. I will grant that. Furthermore, I would be the last person to come to the CREA’s defense. But…

That realtor dude is nutzo. I strongly suspect a severe narcissistic personality disorder. That he could not foresee that his actions would get very likely him canned is the first clue.

The second clue would be the (phoney?) tears and profane ranting. He scares the bejesus out of me. I would have bounced him too. Then I’d have hired a 24-hour security guard to keep watch on my home and family.

Again, don’t construe this as a defense of the CREA. They may be charlatans but this guy’s a complete fruit loop.

#134 robert james on 09.27.13 at 6:13 pm

#126 You rock Ma !! I love renter humor and barn yard humor too !! LOL

#135 dosouth on 09.27.13 at 6:39 pm

#133 Mister Obvious – ..”this guy’s a complete fruit loop.”
_________________________

Not so sure about fruit loop rather the new generation who put it out there for the world to see, few filters. He is young and obviously not experienced in the world of reality and biting the hand that feeds you.

Having said that he may very well come out of this a wiser and smarter person as honesty is inherent in his posts. He may be had some poor advice from his twitter friends who are now rolling on the floor but near the end he speaks about his debt – mounds of debt. That is what he is really worried about. IMHO

#136 Canadian Watchdog on 09.27.13 at 6:44 pm

#133 Mister Obvious

Never mind his character and sob story. Watch the first video and look at the context of his emails and how he was directed from CREA's Statistics Coordinator to Gregory Klump who later cc'd Pierre Leduc, CREA's Media Relations Officer. What does media relations have to do with statistics?

Then the wannabe cut-my-hair like Harvard's "Edward Glaeser" Klump replied with this:

Supply is important only on the context of demand. It's the balance between the two that is meaningful from the standpoint of the pricing environment. In the absence of demand context supply is open to misinterpretation and misrepresentation. CREA does not publish active listings between their potential for misrepresentation by various and sun-dried housing market observers including the news media. That said, it is possible to solve for active listings with the info that CREA publishes.

WTF is sun-dried housing market observers suppose to mean? I sure hope he's not talking about Garth or Ross Kay.

The problem is the kid didn't understand the numbers and formula Klump suggested to calculate active listings. I do. But he did notice a big discrepancy between what REBGV and CREA told him active listings were, prompting Klump to reply with an email stating his previous email was a "mistake" and "unprecedented".

I'm collating all the data in that video. I'll share what I find.

#137 Derek R on 09.27.13 at 7:49 pm

#136 Canadian Watchdog on 09.27.13 at 6:44 pm asked:
WTF is sun-dried housing market observers suppose to mean? I sure hope he’s not talking about Garth or Ross Kay.

I’m sure he is. But I’m pretty sure that “sun-dried” is just spellcheckerese for “sundry”

#138 MarkPitz on 09.27.13 at 10:42 pm

Business as usual.

#139 backwardsevolution on 09.28.13 at 1:48 pm

#33 Mister Obvious – “That realtor dude is nutzo. I strongly suspect a severe narcissistic personality disorder. That he could not foresee that his actions would get very likely him canned is the first clue.

The second clue would be the (phoney?) tears and profane ranting. He scares the bejesus out of me. I would have bounced him too. Then I’d have hired a 24-hour security guard to keep watch on my home and family.”

Where to start! I don’t see narcissism here or a “nutzo”. Perhaps naivety. Narcissists or sociopaths are people who like chaos, secrecy, don’t want truth revealed. Looking at this situation, who might represent those characteristics? I would suggest the narcissists and sociopaths are the ones who were responsible for his firing.

This fellow wanted to get to the truth. That’s really all he wanted. He reported factually on the back-and-forth emails, and the fact that all he could get were “seasonally adjusted” numbers.

Canadian Watchdog said at #136: “Watch the first video and look at the context of his emails and how he was directed from CREA’s Statistics Coordinator to Gregory Klump who later cc’d Pierre Leduc, CREA’s Media Relations Officer. What does media relations have to do with statistics?”

Yes, instead of Media Relations, how about telling us the truth. They don’t want to because once we can track actual and truthful “supply,” it will be evident what “demand” really is.

Whistleblowers are currently being thrown under the bus, and it doesn’t help when people call them “nutzo” for trying to reveal the truth.

I applaud him. Sounds like a really good wrongful dismissal suit here. He should see a good lawyer.