Dog fight

fencing1

Remember some days ago I told you about how unreliable those realtor-generated numbers may be? It seemed like a big deal that one house can be listed two or three times on different real estate boards, and then be counted as a sale on each. Or that a house in distant Burlington, where they have the weirdest US-style Republican teen band – can be listed as a sale in metrosexual Toronto.

Or, while we’re at it, that houses which don’t sell at one price can be re-listed at a lower one and come out as a brand new offering, just to trick buyers with new lipstick and heels. And when they finally find a buyer, the sale price is listed as a percentage of the revised ask – inflating the stats. Or how about all those private sales, like with ComFree or Property Guys? Now that they’re on MLS, they count in the numbers, but didn’t last year. So year/year comps are whacked.

And let’s not get started on the famed Frankenumber – the MLS HPI thingy invented just to mask short-term market moves and come up with a blended number. Like Light Rock. Or stacked townhouses. Or Google Safe Search. Or Michael Bublé.

Well, this blog highlighted some of these practices two weeks ago, and in so doing quoted the disgust of ex-realtor and pitbull housing consultant Ross Kay. Ross called me the next day to say he’d been peppered with media requests. (And you thought only moldy, loser, basement-dwelling, squinting renter rejects read this blog. That’s true, of course, but some of them are reporters.)

LISTINGS 1

So a week later HuffPost ran a big piece on those phantom listings. The CBC followed up. And suddenly CREA had a problem – a toxic story had leaked out of the containment area of this pathetic blog, and into the Canadian mainstream. If it spread further, especially among the naturally-cynical, snappy little condo-snorfelling youth of the nation, then realtors might have a harder time finding new virgins to plunder. 911, baby. Call in the big dog.

“Well, as expected,” Kay told me this week, “CREA is worried and has gone on the attack to discredit me. Unfortunately, it’s opened some doors without knowing actually what hides behind those locks.”

The realtor cartel trotted out its most credible figure, housing economist Gregory Klump (who once got me to autograph his copy of my book, Greater Fool) to fire back. He used a guest column in the Post to rain invective and scorn down upon the head of the former long-time real estate broker. But in so doing, Klump does admit to the practice of double- and triple-listings.

“The evidence cited for his big downward revisions to the most recent two months of national sales data is the fact that a property can be posted to more than one MLS System. This is true – however Mr. Kay’s conclusion that if a listing is posted on more than one MLS System, then it must therefore be counted as more than one sale is false.”

Interesting use of words. Duplicate listings confirmed. But a denial that they “must therefore be counted” as duplicate sales. Maybe they don’t have to be counted as such, but are they? Does CREA even audit the numbers flowing up from its boards, where this stuff originates?

Beats me. Klump continues:

“The practice of posting listings to more than one MLS System is sometimes seen in areas where transactions commonly occur between buyers and sellers across the jurisdictional boundaries of local real estate Boards and Associations.

“That said, it is hardly wide spread. A recent analysis shows duplicate listings account for less than 0.8 per cent of all the active listings on REALTOR.ca. Even if every single one of those listings sold in the month of August, and if hypothetically, and as Mr. Kay appears to allege, every single one of those sales was double counted, it still would not be enough to result in the kinds of revisions to national sales he has in his “report”.”

Replies the Rossinator: “I find it strange that Mr. Klump does not provide a single numerical correction to the numbers I have posted yet asks the reader to believe him, even after he and others at CREA admit they don’t have a list of addresses (of phantom listings), yet he claims over-reporting happens under .8% of the time without being able to prove it.”

Ross, Ross, Ross. Grow up. You’ve just been run through the HPI Frankenumber vortex. Mr. Klump, as an economist, is at least 82% sure that seven-tenths of the HuffPost readers (who don’t move their lips or consume stories with a headline that starts with LOOK!)  will believe any number like “0.8 per cent”, at least 90% of the time. It’s just so darn credible.

Meanwhile you say things like, “If this were the stock market, these guys would be going to jail.”

Now, are we all clear on the truth? Good.

132 comments ↓

#1 Ret on 09.25.13 at 8:32 pm

Triple listings are back on the MLS site for Oakville. We had double listings before and now we have triples.

#2 TurnerNation on 09.25.13 at 8:36 pm

Some blog dogs are complaining of nightmares. Clowns two days ago, hulking vengeful Boomers the next.

#3 Mr. Frugal on 09.25.13 at 8:38 pm

I’m glad to see that we’re back to beating on the realtors. They certainly deserve a sound thrashing. But we sure could use a few more posts on basic investing. After reading the comments from yesterdays blog, I’m convinced there are some folks in desperate need of an investment primer. I used to be a bit of a skeptic. But I took your advice and have been reading like a mad fiend. So far it’s been paying off quite well. Thanks!

I will return to the Investing 101 in the coming days. — Garth

#4 Renter Reject on 09.25.13 at 8:39 pm

So is the 30 year mortgage on its way out as you predicted a few months ago?

F is mulling it. — Garth

#5 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.25.13 at 8:42 pm

So, put differently, the CREA numbers are precisely wrong.
(or, very carefully made up?)

#6 Palebird on 09.25.13 at 8:46 pm

Clear as mud

#7 gringosdemierda on 09.25.13 at 8:46 pm

Pathetic country is Canada…bunch of inbreds living in boxes or mcmansions who have nothing else but their little houses and their huge ego….down to earth…losers

#8 father on 09.25.13 at 8:48 pm

what do you think of canadian wathdog claiming city in bed with developers (WORLD BANK)

#9 jess on 09.25.13 at 8:53 pm

numbers in accounting standards

http://www.publishwhatyoupay.no/conference/speaker/prem-sikka

Key questions addressed:

Role of accountancy firms in tax avoidance
Secrecy and design of tax avoidance schemes
Global tax avoidance industry

#10 Liquid on 09.25.13 at 8:55 pm

Not just phantom listings, but there are a lot of other inconsistencies and lack of transparency in the real estate listing industry. Ah well, I’m hopeful that all the funny business will be eventually exposed sooner or later :) I wonder if Mr. Klump is concerned that Canadians are catching on.

“Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.”
~George Bernard Shaw

#11 Dan from Calgary on 09.25.13 at 9:02 pm

I read quite a few sources, including blogs, and enjoy yours the most. The views I borrow from you continue to make me unpoplular with friends…

I am so proud. — Garth

#12 Barold on 09.25.13 at 9:03 pm

Wouldn’t one solution be report sales from land registry and listings from the real estate associations? Teranet should also have the average selling price stats too (that cannot be manipulated as easily)

#13 takla on 09.25.13 at 9:05 pm

difficult times bring out desperate people….that statement could not be closer to the truth when applied to the current state of the realestate industry.The market has peaked and the correction is established and proceeding..Those depending on a RE sale for their next meal will do and say just about anything to protect their livelyhood.On a side note the s&p puts in its 5th consecitive day of loses capping its longest slump of the yr as walmart tells suppliers its cutting orders fueling concerns the economy is slowing further.

#14 Hew Hefner on 09.25.13 at 9:05 pm

This blogs free “soft poughrn” is ruining my biz.

Thankfully….Smoowking Man has mega subscrtipzuns

#15 Rulze on 09.25.13 at 9:08 pm

Peter Schiff Was Right – ‘Taper’ Edition

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tak9ODlBJgM

#16 guelphstudent on 09.25.13 at 9:08 pm

latest kijiji ad by Ryan Coyle
CASH FLOW CONDOS ** ATTENTION INVESTORS** FLIPPING CONDOS

#17 Joseph R. on 09.25.13 at 9:12 pm

#7 gringosdemierda on 09.25.13 at 8:46 pm

What country do you live in?

#3 Mr. Frugal on 09.25.13 at 8:38 pm

There are better ressources when it comes to investing; try Fool.ca or, if you REALLY want jump both feet in, try

http://www.investopedia.com/university/beginner/

For books, there are books from authors Charles Ellis (The Elements of Investing: Easy Lessons for Every Investor) and Burton Milkier (A Random Walk Down Wall Street) are good way to start. I enjoyed reading them both! You can find them on Amazon or Chapters.

Hope this helps.

#18 Suede on 09.25.13 at 9:13 pm

I saw a realtor post on Facebook that her sold listing for a SFH had multiple offers in bby. When i checked to see what the selling price was – it was 5% below asking!

hahaha. Points for great marketing: Multiple offers ….(below asking)!!

20+ comments and 30+ likes on Facebook for that status.

I’m getting tired of beating on realtors – i bought one an Old Fashioned on the weekend to make amends and good karma.

#19 Smoking Man on 09.25.13 at 9:16 pm

The second an infant spits out it’s birthing fluid and takes it’s first breath, It’s a marked object. It’s issued a number that goes into the machines database.

From that moment on it’s a prospect on someone’s sales list.

As it grows up and programmed it forms a belief system, the belief system is not based on anything closely resembling reality.

But depending on it’s environment, conditioning and fables. It’s characteristics are predictable.

When they enter the workforce they are issued another number it’s a SIN.

I give you the birth of the consumer and tax farm slave.

Now here in Canada, the machine brings these kids up believing in honesty, truthfulness and virtue.

So when the shock of some one caught lying in this great bastion of truthfulness who’s just trying to make a buck , the herd goes crazy.

Not I,

I expect everyone I meet to be prospecting me. What are they stealing selling or hiding. In other words, same way I size up prospects.

So the Boards lie, So does Harpo, Obama, Insurance Companies, Dalton’s, Stats department.

All I’m saying is break the mold you where cast in.

Learn to lie and prosper.

#20 Liquid on 09.25.13 at 9:25 pm

#3 Mr. Frugal

I second your sentiment Mr. Frugal :) I’ve been adhering to this blog’s advice as well and trying to learn as much as I can. I’m curious as to what Garth thinks about fixed income, hard commodities like gold, or other opportunities out there. A large phone company recently issued some bonds at 5% yield. Not a great return but not bad considering it’s investment grade. I’m thinking about buying some to diversify my asset allocation and have some protection against a potential stock market correction when the US has to raise its debt ceiling again.

#21 wallflower on 09.25.13 at 9:29 pm

Acquaintance has SFH Don Mills demand-neighbourhood house listed two weeks at realtor-suggested price. Today, realtor suggests dropping price and taking best offer. The cool winds of fall? or something else? On another note, two homes near me in Unionville been listed for 6 months and 2.5 years respectively. $888 (yep, the happy Chinese numbers) and $897 (not so happy). Nothing. The $897 has been brought down from $1.1M. Getting chilly around here.

#22 John on 09.25.13 at 9:30 pm

Remember a story about condo in Trump tower going on auction? Back in times Toronto Star suggested it will attract interest from international buyers. Auctioned just happened, and that condo only attracted a single below minimum bid http://metronews.ca/news/toronto/802977/toronto-trump-tower-unit-receives-below-minimum-bid/

#23 Musty Basement Dweller on 09.25.13 at 9:31 pm

Good work Ross and Garth. It’s really good to see at least some balance is getting out to the public to counter the lies that the real estate twerps are feeding out.

#24 strangeUnrealestate on 09.25.13 at 9:35 pm

Get the competition Bureau to wake up and get them to audit the list and force a retraction and make them admit to fraudulent practices if guilty so they can be tarred and feathered and dragged by a wagon across town and put in the stocks so we can throw rotten eggs at them or are we to civilized to even bother to groan and gripe.

A new real estate agent cold called me today and I referred him to this site and he was thankful and asked if he had questions could he call me back? Even new agents are duped. I told him to look for an exit strategy or a another job.

#25 takla on 09.25.13 at 9:35 pm

have to add that your blog pics just keep getting better garth.This particular one today brings back memories of my days back in the 70’s when i first got into the construction industry,Had to set -up a scaffold on a building and when i went over to get the frames and braces they had a sticker attached”Rapid erection”always got a kick out of that!!

#26 Victor V on 09.25.13 at 9:35 pm

#4 Renter Reject on 09.25.13 at 8:39 pm
So is the 30 year mortgage on its way out as you predicted a few months ago?

F is mulling it. — Garth

==================================

No need to sit on the sidelines people. If you want to make your voice heard, CALL, FAX or WRITE to the Minister. It only takes a minute to send an email asking for more stringent borrowing rules, and politicians DO care about losing/gaining votes.

http://www.parl.gc.ca/MembersOfParliament/ProfileMP.aspx?Key=78777

Telephone: 613-992-6344
Fax: 613-992-8320
EMail: [email protected]
Web Site: http://www.jimflahertymp.ca/
Preferred Language: English

#27 Benchwarmers on 09.25.13 at 9:36 pm

I’ll take the Cavendish with the extra bathroom.

#28 Cici on 09.25.13 at 9:39 pm

Great work Garth and Ross, and YES, the mainstream and all those virgins are catching on.

Want proof? Gail Vaz-Oxlade’s September 24th pro-rent blog posting titled “Save Money By Renting.”

She even addresses the “Renters are throwing good money down the drain!” argument/cliché in the opening paragraph!

My faith in humanity is slowly being restored :-)

The Jar Lady. There is hope yet. — Garth

#29 visorman30 on 09.25.13 at 9:40 pm

I wonder what the lag period is for knowing when a housing correction has happened and is there a general metric similar to GDP that would be used in place of Frankenumbers?. What I mean is, a recession takes a while to confirm that a recession has occurred (and may be already out of by the time it has been confirmed.

#30 Smoking Man on 09.25.13 at 9:40 pm

Yesterday I posted this

“Home owners are winners , renters are losers, everybody knows that, even if the math don’t make sense.”

Some of the follow up comments inferred that it was a statement I made.

Well I did, but due to poor writing skills it didn’t come out the way I meant.

The point I was trying to make, that’s how the herd looks at it. That’s why RE is so expensive

There is only one loser in here and that designation belongs solely to me.

I lost at being a good slave……………

#31 Cici on 09.25.13 at 9:41 pm

Here’s another gem from her post (I think she’s been reading, and inspired by, Garth…):

“Home ownership comes with a lot of responsibilities. And while it’s true that homes appreciate over the long term, so does money well invested.”

#32 Notta Sheeple on 09.25.13 at 9:47 pm

#19Smoking Man on 09.25.13 at 9:16 pm
“…..Learn to lie and prosper…….”
=========================

In 2008, that decade-long strategy didn’t work out to well for our neighbours to the south.

Something to do with chickens coming home to roost.

#33 Ld on 09.25.13 at 9:49 pm

And let’s not get started on the famed Frankenumber………..

Sounds like the stats coming out of the states.

#34 Smoking Man on 09.25.13 at 9:49 pm

#31 Cici on 09.25.13 at 9:41 pm
Here’s another gem from her post (I think she’s been reading, and inspired by, Garth…):

“Home ownership comes with a lot of responsibilities. And while it’s true that homes appreciate over the long term, so does money well invested.”
…………………………………………

“so does money well invested”

Who has the discipline to do that today.

People always find ways to spend extra loot.

Less they are gamblers, they make bets with it. Not lots of me’s out there.

Home ownership forces the weak, the feeble, the instant gratification gang into forced savings.

Virgins are actually saying, I cant trust myself with my own loot. Lets buy a house.

#35 Doug in London on 09.25.13 at 9:50 pm

@gringosdemierda, post #7:
Really? I’m a Canadian, born in the Niagara Region of Ontario (yes, I know that’s close to the border, but most definitely on the CANADIAN side of that imaginary line that runs through the Niagara River and Lake Erie), I’ve lived in many different communities in Ontario (that’s still part of Canada, isn’t it?) and now in London, ON which I believe is also part of Canada. Not only that, I have a CANADIAN passport. I DO NOT own a house (although I have a good exposure to REITs, thanks to them being on sale for the last 3 months) and have a big enough portfolio of investments to retire on. Does that make me a loser? If I have a huge ego, it’s because I had the presence of mind to scoop up those investments when they were cheap.

#36 TurnerNation on 09.25.13 at 9:52 pm

Making the rounds today. Entitled Gen Yers.

(Raised by parents who enjoyed the “Me Decade” – the 80s. Go figure.)

Flip it to “Don’t trust anyone under 30”?

http://www.waitbutwhy.com/2013/09/why-generation-y-yuppies-are-unhappy.html?m=1

#37 Babblemaster on 09.25.13 at 10:02 pm

“Meanwhile you say things like, “If this were the stock market, these guys would be going to jail.”” – Garth

—————————————————–

Wrong Garth. Bernie Madoff made off with people’s money and went to jail, but relatively very few Wall Streeters do. Why, because that’s where many ex politicians and regulators go when they leave office or the government.

#38 Kaganovich on 09.25.13 at 10:06 pm

# 9 Jess

Thanks for the link to the Prem Sikka lecture. Excellent points raised. Perhaps Garth has an opinion on Sikka’s arguments…

#39 Freedom First on 09.25.13 at 10:09 pm

#29 Smoking Man

Speaking of liars, Smoking Man, you have inferred approx. 5,000 times on Garth’s blog that renters are losers, and owners are winners. SM, you are excused for your lies though, as you have also admitted approx. 5,000 times on Garth’s blog that how to make it in this world is by lying, and you do profess to be the best at it. Sorry, SM, all of the various industries, and people, that Garth has exposed as liars are the Professional liars. SM, you are merely a fictitious character, by your own admission, and I give you credit, you have honestly told us that you are exactly what you say you are, in real life, and in your SM character. A lot of people like your posts, and I have to admit, since I have been reading you for a long time, I can see why Garth keeps you on his blog, DELETED not withstanding. To make it a shorter version, at least you are an honest liar SM.

To all the other lying long RE “Greater Fool” exposed soul less people. We know who you are. Get ready…..Karma is gonna be a bitc*h for you. No exception.

#40 Smoking Man on 09.25.13 at 10:13 pm

#7 gringosdemierda on 09.25.13 at 8:46 pm

Pathetic country is Canada…bunch of inbreds living in boxes or mcmansions who have nothing else but their little houses and their huge ego….down to earth…losers
………………………………..

This is a perfect example of what my earlier post where attempting to highlight.

Here we have an individual who has been ridiculed for being a renter, his post is an emotional lash out, at the herd who dares to judge him as less than.

Like his spirit

He gets a hot woman what wants Granite, he’s capitulating, buying.

He wants to be in the Loser’s Lounge.

:)

#41 AnotherLondoner on 09.25.13 at 10:20 pm

CREA.. here comes some real numbers…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/toronto-new-condo-sales-see-worst-august-showing-in-a-decade/article14464065/

#42 not 1st on 09.25.13 at 10:20 pm

“I will return to the Investing 101 in the coming days. — Garth”

How about a primer on how to invest in equities through your own corporation thus reducing your tax burden and earning dividends on 10% taxed money instead of 40%. Haven’t seen you put this one out there yet.

#43 The Truth on 09.25.13 at 10:20 pm

Looks like the truth is finally starting to come out – it takes brave men like Ross Kay to go against institutions – the least people can do is call, email, or write to the CBC and ask them to do an investigation – we need to get to the bottom of this FAST – CREA and TREB should be forced to hire an independent auditor to audit their numbers and then we’ll see who is telling the truth! Increased pressure on the media will help turn the tide! Can’t wait to see this unfold…

#44 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.25.13 at 10:21 pm

#19 Smoking Man on 09.25.13 at 9:16 pm

I keep reading your insistent rants about insurance companies and often ponder what is the Smoking Mans disdain with them. Well yesterday I heard on the news that goverment legislation to lower the rates say around 15 points is going to be wipes out by a convenient increase of around 20 points. Bastards, liers and cheats. I have to say that Smoking Man should keep on ranting about these snakes. We should all be pissed. What a racket the insurance business is.

#45 Bob Rice on 09.25.13 at 10:33 pm

Wonky U.S. recovery?

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/09/25/wal-mart-cancels-supplier-orders-as-merchandise-piles-up-in-stores/

#46 Smoking Man on 09.25.13 at 10:45 pm

#44 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.25.13 at 10:21 pm
#19 Smoking Man on 09.25.13 at 9:16 pm

I keep reading your insistent rants about insurance companies and often ponder what is the Smoking Mans disdain with them. Well yesterday I heard on the news that goverment legislation to lower the rates say around 15 points is going to be wipes out by a convenient increase of around 20 points. Bastards, liers and cheats. I have to say that Smoking Man should keep on ranting about these snakes. We should all be pissed. What a racket the insurance business is.

…………………………

If some one is pitching me, and I swallow, my bad, I try and learn from it

Insurance companies and Ont Govt. = Vermin

We have no choice, it’s the law. You must pay 15 times more than someone in Florida to drive a car in Ontario.

Really it’s only me being jealous I don’t have a piece of that action.

They rape my kids, pisses me off.

#47 HogtownIndebted on 09.25.13 at 10:51 pm

#22 John

Thanks for the update. Wow, I think I won my own contest, announced here a little while ago:

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/09/15/the-changeup/

In my post #148, I said the Trump condo would sell for $489,000. The only bid was $550,000

Hey, that’s within 11% of the final bid.

Or as CREA might say, over asking……

#48 CalgaryHappyRenter on 09.25.13 at 10:59 pm

Run Run Run
Flipping Homes in Calgary. LOL
https://www.fortunebuildersregistration.com/CALGARY/8.0000/Index.cgi?MID=3486994

#49 Nemesis on 09.25.13 at 11:00 pm

“Learn to lie and prosper.”

A thematically apropos conundrum for SM…

“Etched into the wall of the original building’s main lobby is a biblical verse which also characterizes the intelligence mission in a free society. It reads: “And ye shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free. John VIII-XXXII”

#50 Canadian Watchdog on 09.25.13 at 11:12 pm

If I were Ross Kay I'd fire back with with more ammo since CREA is in the spotlight now. Obviously there was some concern for them to reply. But instead of providing some clarity about CREA's data collection, Klump fired back with no numbers and played the character assassination card. That's typical amongst Canadian oligarchs.

Aside from Ross' claims, here is what else should be addressed by CREA et al.

1) As shown here many times: TREB and some other boards remove sales from prior years inflating the current year. Statistically, comparing year-over-year figures using unrevised verses revised data is completely wrong and creates a positive bias of 3%.

2) Presales and Assignments: Technically, these should be filtered out of resale statistics, or what TD falsely reports as 'existing sales'. These types of sales are contracts on non-exisiting units to be completed years down the road. Yet it adds sales and phantom dollar volume to what's being reported every month. Earlier this year I ran the numbers and discovered that about 3-6% of the sales reported by TREB are actually presales or assignments. This figure could now be higher with new home sales down, forcing developers on MLS to sell units. (Maybe Ross could look into this data?)

When you start to add up all the flaws, it creates a positive bias at the margin, that is, for example, a way of maintaining +10% when actual numbers are -10%.

There there's this from TREB's tribunal records: Case Details: CT-2011-003 Report #221 and #194

1. Pending sales provide important up-to-date information

64. Information about pending sales provides consumers with the most up-to-date information about market activity. Having "fresh" data is particularly important when home prices are changing significantly over time. Information regarding "pending sales" constitutes some of the "freshest" information available. My analysis of TREB MLS data shows that the median time that a home spends as a "pending sale" is over 7 weeks. It follows that preventing consumers from readily accessing information about pending sales forces consumers to look at the market with a lag of almost 2 months.

65. A two month lag in information can significantly distort consumers' perception of the market. Between June 2010 and June 2011, market prices in the GTA have increased at an average annual rate of about 10 percent. Thus, prices in any given two month period increased approximately 1.5 percent, on average, across the GTA

66. Although some reports exist that provide up-to-date information on pncmg trends, statistics in which information is aggregated across a variety of different properties can be misleading: prices can go up or down over time because of a change in what kinds of homes are selling rather than because of any true shift in the market. Thus, aggregated market reports are poor substitutes for information about individual listings.

So not only are CREA et al. statistics positively biased, some data lags by two months too!

How do Canadians allow such an agency that is propped up by taxpayers dollars via CMHC to deprive them of critical information regarding the biggest asset of their life? Why is CREA trying to maintain an outdated caveman system when we live in the information age that has already moved on to Zillow type RE websites? Is information that important? And if it is, don't you all think it should be transparent (and government's responsibility as it was in the U.S.) in an economy that has over a trillion dollars of mortgages sitting on deposit and non-deposit institutions backed by taxpayers?

CREA has many questions to answer. Let's press them on it.

#51 Obvious Truth on 09.25.13 at 11:14 pm

Buble didn’t deserve that.

#52 Bob Rice on 09.25.13 at 11:20 pm

Listening to AM 640 in Toronto today.. Radio host Mike Stafford was used in realtor Frank Leo’s radio ad. It went something like this:

M.S. “Some are saying the buyers are on vacation! Or that they just aren’t buying any more. Not so, says Frank Leo. He’s selling tons of homes and just got 128% on a recent bidding war… He’s never been busier… Call Frank Leo; I did. He’ll sell your home fast and at the price you want… His marketing plan is genius and creates demand for homes.. Call Frank if you want to sell your home or buy a great property..”

Now I know there’s a housing crisis brewing in toronto with desperate ads like that… they fact that the ad had to explicitly state that “buyers aren’t on holidays” makes the desperation all that more palpable.

#53 grasshopper on 09.25.13 at 11:21 pm

MSM might be getting the message?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/soaring-real-estate-sinking-prospects/article14533765/

#54 Evangeline on 09.25.13 at 11:36 pm

#Peter Schiff ….

the next tape on the spool was about Janet Yellin. Schiff says she is a proponent of negative interest rates, to punish savers from hoarding their money.

#55 Donald Trump on 09.25.13 at 11:48 pm

Called the Tel # on the truck

DELETED

#56 JUNO on 09.26.13 at 12:04 am

If you can’t Dazzle the horny with brilliance

Get them arouse with bull-s*it!!!

It funny that you get the real estate figures from the sale people , whereas the ministry of finance has all those figure.

Where are the actual numbers or is CREA shutting up people so they can spread their propraganda

#57 beck on 09.26.13 at 12:12 am

Garth: two posts ago (sept 23) you said the housing market in canada will not crash. Yet many times lately, you have said we will not have a soft landing. I’m confused, what have we been talking about for the past year? In fact, the next sentence was that fundamentals supporting housing are deteriorating. How many times have you pointed out that debt is rising, incomes flatlining, and cost of living rising, price to rent ratios, affordability indexes, canada second only to Norway? for inflated housing and on and on… it all points to a crash, yet you say “housing will not crash.”????? Contradictory, no?

#58 Entrepreneur on 09.26.13 at 12:17 am

Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms:

Part III Equalization and Regional Disparities

a) promoting equal opportunities for the well-being
of Canadians

b) furthering ecomonic development to reduce disparity in opportunities and

c) providing essential services of reasonable quality to all Canadians

According to Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia “The Charter guarantees certain political rights to Canadian citizens and civil rights to everone in Canada from the policies and actions of all areas and levels of government.”

Everyone should read the Charter and know their rights.

#59 Yuus bin Haad on 09.26.13 at 12:28 am

Oooh – this is getting good. What can we do to stir the pot some more?

#60 Mr. Reality on 09.26.13 at 12:42 am

Yup its official, dead-cat bounce on numbers that are false.

Nice work Canada, welcome to a kick in the junk that will last a generation or more.

Mr. R.

Mr. R.

#61 Heard this before, when I lived in the States on 09.26.13 at 1:32 am

Greg Klump, CREA’s chief economist, sounds exactly like the US chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, David Lereah who defended the NAR even when the whole real estate industry was imploding in the US.

David finally had to admit that he was worried about his job if he didn’t put the correct spin on the numbers. I suspect Greg will get his turn to admit he was wrong too. Below is an excerpt of an interview with David Lereah

Q: Were you wrong to be so bullish?
A: I (David Lereah) worked for an association promoting housing, and it was my job to represent their interests. If you look at my actual forecasts, the numbers were right inline with most forecasts. The difference was that I put a positive spin on it It was easy to do during boom times, harder when times weren’t good. I never thought the whole national real estate market would burst.

I’ll let the reader decide, but I wouldn’t believe a word Greg’s preaching.

#62 GRG on 09.26.13 at 2:03 am

Not that long ago we all aspired to be in “the 1%”. Now it’s down to “the 0.8%”. Must be deflation…

#63 Sydneysider on 09.26.13 at 2:05 am

#9 Jess

Thanks for that link.

#64 Snake on 09.26.13 at 2:08 am

No money? No problem: How to budget for your dreams

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/video/no-money-no-problem-budget-040000829.html

#65 Tom from Mississauga on 09.26.13 at 2:33 am

The listings in my parents hood in south Brampton are piling up. In Peel Village 2 years ago a house wouldn’t last 7 days unless obscenely over priced. Lots have been listed since spring. Several are not on the MLS website. What gives with that?

#66 Buy? Curious? on 09.26.13 at 3:32 am

Hey Garth! Where do you draw the line on profanity because these guys like Greg Klump need to be smacked around like they owe me money.

http://www.youtubeDELETED

#67 Devore on 09.26.13 at 3:59 am

#44 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol

You should start your own insurance company, sounds like a license to print money. Until you hire an actuary, that is.

#68 Dean Mason on 09.26.13 at 4:17 am

I don’t know if anyone watched the Agenda on TVO tonight but they actually said most people that have low interest rate mortgages today that are lower than during the great depression are going to be underwater.

They said interest rates will be higher in coming months or years and Steve Paikan said then there will be a Canadian housing crash or downturn I can’t remember his exact words.

They said this is insanity, doing the same thing over and over but expecting a different outcome. It looks like they let the cat out of the bag.

#69 carpe diem on 09.26.13 at 5:22 am

I am seeing double listings in Ottawa now.

#70 Bob Rice on 09.26.13 at 6:56 am

Looks like waterloo might come out of the RIM debacle intact…

http://www.thestar.com/business/tech_news/2013/09/25/google_picks_waterloo_for_tech_hub.html

Jobs created? Looks like zero. Not much of a rescue for BB’s 40 per cent employee bomb. — Garth

#71 Canadian Watchdog on 09.26.13 at 7:00 am

#61 Heard this before, when I lived in the States

Yep. Don Klump's preaching sure does rhyme with Lereah. And while the NAR was getting sued by the DOJ, CREA was rubbing it in their face:

A 2005 CREA report stated,

“What makes organized real estate in Canada the envy of many other countries is that it had the vision to create the MLS system and provide restricted consumer access via the mls.ca website and so avoid disintermediation that would inevitably have occurred otherwise.”

What exactly is organized real estate?

#72 Sebee on 09.26.13 at 7:27 am

This reminds me of Colbert.

“The only man who can stop a bad guy with good data is a good guy with bad data.”

Ross is the bad guy for leaking info.

#73 fancy_pants on 09.26.13 at 7:46 am

Drug cartels vs. RE cartels…
different guns, both dangerous. Don’t cease to be amazed what the unscrupulous will do for $.

#74 Sean on 09.26.13 at 7:46 am

Up until you pointed this out on your blog, out here in Durham Region most listings in the filter settings I use (under $350k) most listings were double and triple listed. Now they have all but disapeared.

I’m not one who likes to see more regulations added to most things, but these guys obviously cannot be trusted to self regulate themselves. Considering how much of the economy is now dependant on housing, having snake oil salesmen with self serving interests at stake guarding the real numbers, something is seriously wrong.

#75 Victor V on 09.26.13 at 7:53 am

HUFFPOST UPDATE: Caroline Feeley, a sales rep with Sutton Group Quantum Realty in Mississauga, writes in to say she agrees the double and triple listings are distorting the statistics.

“I am not at all pleased with loading a listing three times and I feel that it is ridiculous to have to do so,” Feeley writes. But she explains she has no choice, because of the way the “fractured” real estate board system works. In her own words:

What you don’t know and what the public doesn’t know is that the listing needs to appear separately on the Toronto Real Estate Board, the Oakville, Milton and District Real Estate Board and the Realtor’s Association of Hamilton and Burlington for Realtors to be able to search the full listing from their home board. What this means is that if I were to only list the property on RAHB, realtors from the other boards would not be able to search and find the full listing! Since most properties are purchased with a buyer working with a realtor, I will do everything I can to ensure that realtors across the real estate boards have access to all my listing.

My listing in Waterdown should, at the very least, be listed on RAHB because this is where the property is located, and local realtors need to have full access to the listing. But why should Oakville and Mississauga agents not also be able to see this listing on their board? To me, it’s ridiculous that they don’t automatically have this access. A lot of real estate transactions are from people moving east to west. If my listing on Victoria Street was not also listed on OMDREB and TREB, I would potentially be excluding all the prospective buyers working with realtors on those boards.

As long as we have multiple real estate boards in the province that operate this way, a good realtor will list on multiple boards. I hope that one day soon, there will be an amalgamation of boards or some way that we can ensure all realtors have full access to listings, but until that day, in my practice anyway, the numbers will be distorted as I continue to serve the best interest of my client.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/09/20/mls-phantom-listings-house-prices_n_3957237.html

#76 Ralph Cramdown on 09.26.13 at 8:00 am

#157 espressobob — “Bortolotti [Canadian Couch Potato] provides excellent ‘info’ on ETF products and I respect that! When it comes to his ‘model portfolios’ I beg to differ! Somethings missing, could be ‘stradegy’ i’m thinking.

No ‘dry powder’ for instance when considering the opportunities with regard to pref’s, REIT’s, and bonds a short while ago! Thats my point! Hope i’m wrong.”

Nope, no dry powder, and that’s on purpose. Passive index investing is all about the belief that you (YOU, not some people in the investing community) probably can’t beat the market by timing it, so the best strategy is to be fully invested all the time. Note also that since cash is a drag on performance when markets are going up, and they go up more often than they go down, that’s a bigger outperformance hurdle that active investors set for themselves.

Not everybody wants to be a passive investor who only spends a few hours a year managing their portfolio, but for the ones that do, the Couch Potato offers a good resource. The godfather of this type of investing is Jack Bogle, and his followers style themselves ‘bogleheads.’

http://25iq.com/2013/05/13/asset-allocation-for-muppets-with-a-401k/

#77 susan from the London area on 09.26.13 at 8:17 am

Does anyone remember asset split Garth recommends ie: how much holdings in real estate, or in financials 60% equities what percent bonds% and growth%?? I know at one point I had it down but can’t remember now. Thanks

#78 pbrasseur on 09.26.13 at 8:21 am

So Canadians stats are “enhanced” by the industry to make things look better than they really are.

I have little doubt this is the case.

But it is still kind of a moot point when it comes to the current bubble. This behaviour has been doing on for years so this month inflated sales figures are relative to previous month also inflated sales figures.

Fact is to get accurate sales figures and compare them to previously inflated sales figures would not depict the market tendencies any better, in fact it would make things look worse than they actually are.

Not to say bad behaviours by the industry shouldn’t be addressed obviously.

#79 Franco on 09.26.13 at 8:34 am

Eventually there will be a correction and the only question now is when and by how much? It may be sooner now than ever before, it is already starting with the condo market in Toronto and with demographics changing so fast now it may quite some time before a recovery happens, so the idea of a long slow melt is not so far fetched after all.

#80 Sean on 09.26.13 at 8:43 am

Excellent post, as always. One correction…

“If this were the stock market, these guys would be going to jail.”… should read:

“If this were the stock market, these guys SHOULD be going to jail… given there are laws against such things.. but of course won’t be going to jail… as our toothless and spineless and ineffectual regulators have shown, time and time again.”

Ask Conrad Black about that. — Garth

#81 pbrasseur on 09.26.13 at 8:45 am

@susan from the London area # 77

Don’t listen to Garth ;-)

Forget “balanced portfolio”, right now stink and will stink even more in the future. They have done somewhat ok in the past because bonds have been on a bull market for 30 years, this period is over.

Rebalancing between stocks and bonds does not protect your capital, at best it protects you from short term fluctuations (which are irrelevant if you don’t need the money soon) at the cost of lowering long term performance. Over time the compounded difference will be dramatic.

Specially now stay away from bonds entirely, they will almost certainly lose value. Getting out of bonds will cost you money, staying will have you miss opportunities and cost you money.

Only keep enough cash for your foreseeable needs. As you gain and as you approach retirement keep more cash of “near cash” (if dividends and other incomes do not suffice)

The rest is 100% equities, individual equities. For a normal portfolio between 10 and 20 of them should be right. Just pick (or get someone to help you pick) the best companies in the world (most are in the US) and be patient. Don’t buy mutual fund, they rip you off with fees. Bearing a few exception don’t buy ETFs they almost always contains crap.

And read “Then intelligent Investor” from Ben Graham and letters to shareholder by Warren Buffet

So pleased you are not an advisor. — Garth

#82 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 09.26.13 at 9:16 am

@#51 Obvious Truth
Buble didnt deserve that.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Ummmm, yeah, he did.

Michael Buble and George Stumbleoffthebus.
Possible two of the most self absorbed indiviuals to ever grace the Canadian television scene.
Canada’s burden to bare.

And when Mr. B is being interviewed by Mr S……..
Aiiiiiiiiiii chihuahua, get a room guys.

#83 Pr on 09.26.13 at 9:21 am

The CIGM from quebec want to separate from CREA. They even lie to realtors from the province Quebec, regarding the vote numbers. The CIGM had to made a special annoucement regarding the false number of CREA.

The CIGM( Chambre immobiliere du grand montreal) from Quebec province will separate from CREA, its a question of time. With those story it should go faster.

#84 Buy? Curious? on 09.26.13 at 9:32 am

I’ll never understand why people get so offended about the F-word and I don’t mean Flarety. An entire industry like the Real Estate Industry that colludes, lies and manipulates markets, cheating to separate us from our money yet people get their panties in a knot when someone uses the F-word?

Just out of curiosity, if, and we know this will never happen, Greg Klump was convicted of a hypothetical crime of manipulating markets, how much time should she serve?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gDLZmrWgDo

(It’s a My Little Pony clip)

#85 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.26.13 at 9:47 am

#67 Devore on 09.26.13 at 3:59 am
#44 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol
You should start your own insurance company, sounds like a license to print money. Until you hire an actuary, that is.
_____________________________________________
No interest in that business thanks. I can make loads of money doing something I like and still sleep at night. Actuaries mathematically evaluate the probability of events and quantify the contingent outcomes in order to minimize the impacts of financial losses associated with uncertain undesirable events. Since many events, such as death, cannot be avoided, it is helpful to take measures to minimize their financial impact when they occur. These risks can affect both sides of the balance sheet, and require asset management, liability management, and valuation skills. Analytical skills, business knowledge and understanding of human behavior and the vagaries of information systems are required to design and manage programs that control risk.

Oh my God I just realized they are lawyers!

#86 Curious in ON on 09.26.13 at 10:20 am

Any stats on the other CREA practice of cancelling and reposting listings when price drops occur to influence the days on market?

I am watching a listing in ON that went on the market in May and is now on it’s 4th MLS listing, each with a new MLS number. When sold, the days on market will be counted from the last listing date and not the original date when the home went on the market in May.

And in case you are wondering, the home originally listed for $569,900 and is now down to $479,900.

#87 Ralph Cramdown on 09.26.13 at 10:27 am

Now we all know what the mortgage industry says when someone compares Canada’s housing market to pre-implosion USA: “It’s different here.”

Here’s some stats about “soft” mortgage fraud — where the borrower intends to pay back the loan, but lies to the lender about income, other properties owned etc. so as to appear to be a better risk.

“[M]ortgage fraud was responsible for two-thirds, or $400 million, of the estimated dollar amount of financial fraud in Canada. According to John Russo, Vice President of Equifax, that number jumped to $600 million in 2012.

[Soft] mortgage fraud […] is surprisingly common these days. In 2012 it made up the majority of the $1.6 million-a-day in attempted mortgage fraud.”

Note that they conflate successful (i.e. undetected) frauds and attempted frauds. It’s hard to know how many people are getting away with soft mortgage fraud, but if this many buyers and brokers are trying, it stands to reason that lots are successful; what broker would continually submit deals doomed to failure, and how would buyers even know how to go about it without talking to someone for whom it has worked?

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2013/09/fighting-mortgage-fraud.html

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2011/12/mortgage-document-fraud.html

Another common case, though not fraud per se, is a homeowner moving and renting out his former residence. That mortgage is on the books as owner occupied, so stats of personal vs. investment properties are likely skewed.

#88 fallacies are rampant on 09.26.13 at 10:29 am

There are lobby groups whose best interests don’t always align with those of the common man…..look at climate change…..green speak yes…but debunked inthe highest courts..as was Al Gore in Britains Supreme Court…

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100238047/global-warming-believers-are-feeling-the-heat/

It appears we’ve been subjected to a quite successful advert campaign…for reasons which will become clear when people start to follow the money. Gore got 200 million for his part.

What about the rabid campaign against Canada’s oil industry…..by nebulous green sounding concerns…..does anyone think perhaps the Arabian interests don’t want the cometition?

If newspapers aren’t forced to tell the truth…and will in fact print anything they’d paid to…why does anyone think a pissant org like the CREA would be telling the truth against their own interests?

But there is also the

#89 frank the skank on 09.26.13 at 10:59 am

Are you a brony?

#90 Smoking Man on 09.26.13 at 11:18 am

#84 Buy? Curious? on 09.26.13 at 9:32 am

Being the leading  authority on the English language on GF.I have hypothesized the origins of it’s designation of being branded Bad. 

Two hundred years ago at the posh literary gala and party in a castle on the Thames river.  The brain trust and upper hierarchy of words smiths got stuck. How does one catalog such a beautiful elegant multi purpose word in the oxford dictionary.For days the scholars and engineers and all the leading minds of the time are left frustrated, they could not define it.

They gave up and said Ah F-it, and just called it bad

#91 broadway skytrain on 09.26.13 at 11:22 am

RE boards misdeeds pale in comparison to our govt.

The Canada Revenue Agency issued a rebate cheque for nearly $400,000 to Quebec Mafia boss Nicolo Rizzuto even though he owed the tax department $1.5 million at the time, heightening concerns of possible infiltration of the agency by organized crime. 10:40 PM ET

who was rev minister then?
shouldn’t have this money gone to our senators?

#92 Donald Trump on 09.26.13 at 11:23 am

#82 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 09.26.13 at 9:16 am

Why do we have the CBC ?
Its to keep Owe Canada even more united, it is the “fibre” that binds the diverse input from splattering on exit.

We have to support the artists by making the no talents that couldn’t make it elsewhere with 3rd rate awards like Junos and Geminis.

Those that do get famous outside of Canada the world can keep.

#93 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.26.13 at 11:31 am

@ #77 susan from the London area on 09.26.13 at 8:17 am
Does anyone remember asset split Garth recommends ie: how much holdings in real estate, or in financials 60% equities what percent bonds% and growth%?? I know at one point I had it down but can’t remember now. Thanks
———————

Everyone has unique circumstances that could change the asset mix (age, risk tolerance, other assets, etc.).

You can search Garth’s prior posts to find portfolio examples. Try this on Google:
portfolio site:greaterfool.ca

and you get results such as this one:

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2010/11/26/how-to-invest-2/

#94 Herb on 09.26.13 at 11:37 am

#71 Canadian Watchdog,

I can parse “organized real estate”, relate it to knowns such as organized crime and some RE practices, and come up with a reasonable stab at a meaning.

But what the hell is the “disintermediation” that is avoided?

#95 Form Man on 09.26.13 at 11:52 am

Here in the southern interior of BC our economy is becoming more and more dependant on the Alberta oil patch. We are told the break even price for most producers of oil is about $ 70 a barrel. As most of you know, there is a discount applied to Western Canadian Select vs West Texas Intermediate. Today the discount is $31.50 subtracted from WTI of $102.99 equals $71.49. Wise business people will keep an eye on this and if it drops below $70 for any amount of time, there will likely be a change of sentiment in Alberta………

#96 Bob on 09.26.13 at 11:57 am

Blackberry’s layoffs effect on Waterloo:

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip1011578

#97 Randis on 09.26.13 at 12:02 pm

Note to Klump:

Talk is cheap, show the numbers. You think you are credible by walking to the crowd portrating a big-shot but your lack of transparency is really killing it. You seriously think every single one of us Canadians has no brain?

Props to Mr. Ross and as always Mr. Garth

#98 Cici on 09.26.13 at 12:10 pm

#32 Smoking Man

“so does money well invested”

Who has the discipline to do that today.

People always find ways to spend extra loot.

Less they are gamblers, they make bets with it. Not lots of me’s out there.

Home ownership forces the weak, the feeble, the instant gratification gang into forced savings.

Virgins are actually saying, I cant trust myself with my own loot. Lets buy a house.

==================================

I’m not sure about that; by the looks of the 39 comments on that blog the other night, logic may be catching on. A bunch of young people remarked that renting was costing half of what owning would, and were socking away the difference. And homeowners were agreeing with them that it at this point (i.e., crazy overvalued prices), it made no sense to buy. And recent homeowners were complaining about not being able to afford their home purchases, or having no budget for trips and entertaining since signing a purchase deal. The only house humpers commenting made it a point to mention that they had bought in really low (either years ago or in some small town where prices were reasonable in proportion to income and rents).
The tides just may be a turning…

#99 young & foolish on 09.26.13 at 12:17 pm

Incredible! I met some people today who did not understand that ETFs are in fact comprised of stocks.

Incredible! They all aren’t. — Garth

#100 Yitzhak Rabin on 09.26.13 at 12:17 pm

The double-listed Frankenumbers shouldn’t be as much of a problem in more isolated cities like you see in Western Canada or the Maritimes. Still the issue of year/year comparisons with the addition of ComFree and the like.

Very similar to the US GDP and their “new” definition of it that double counts the same activity and adds a magic couple trillion the number.

#101 young & foolish on 09.26.13 at 12:25 pm

Yes, the RE industry spokespersons fudge the truth … sort of like auto, insurance, and financial product sales people ….

Duh, learn to think for yourself, Homer.

#102 broadway skytrain on 09.26.13 at 12:55 pm

from what i can see the two re boards in LM bc , van and fraser valley, don’t do the dbl listing thing.

S of the fraser is a nice clear boundary.

#103 Smoking Man on 09.26.13 at 1:12 pm

#98 Cici on 09.26.13 at 12:10 pm

If my house was mortgaged to the max, renting would be cheaper but not much more.

When people decide to buy, they are aware of this extra premium, they don’t care.

They want out of the losers lunge… The feeling of success a key to your own door.

………….

I love this guy, finally a prof that’s fee.

http://arts.nationalpost.com/2013/09/26/david-gilmour-now-the-centre-of-literary-firestorm-for-syllabus-stock-only-with-serious-heterosexual-guys/

A Smoking Man, say it like you mean it.

#104 Nimoucha on 09.26.13 at 1:23 pm

What number should be taken into account when calculating Garth’s rule of 90 for a couple? And do you factor in kids, and how?
Thank you!

#105 recharts on 09.26.13 at 1:25 pm

Any stats on the other CREA practice of cancelling and reposting listings when price drops occur to influence the days on market?

I am watching a listing in ON that went on the market in May and is now on it’s 4th MLS listing, each with a new MLS number. When sold, the days on market will be counted from the last listing date and not the original date when the home went on the market in May.

And in case you are wondering, the home originally listed for $569,900 and is now down to $479,900.

I am watching this for Toronto
They currently have 796 listings that changed the MLS number with an average of 113 days on the market.

Some of them are as old as since I started monitoring the market
Average price $1.236M
460 of them under 1M
304 of them under 700K

Hope this helps :-)

#106 recharts on 09.26.13 at 1:26 pm

The above are for SFH and I started collecting data in April

#107 Canadian Watchdog on 09.26.13 at 1:38 pm

How to get rich quick.

1) Become a CEO and make sure your bonus is paid by performance.

2) Grow like hell. Hand out a lot of deadbeat mortgage loans to earn the highest premium.

3) Securitize loans with government-backed AAA insurance.

4) Sell them to global investors with a wink* wink* nudge-nudge: "don't worry, it's backed by taxpayers."

5) Report big record profits and claim your bonus.

6) Keep repeating this until you spot heat around the corner. Then quit.

Macquarie Canada CEO Fleck to Leave, Replaced by Cristall

David Fleck, president and chief executive officer of Macquarie Group Ltd. (MQG)’s business in Canada, is leaving after almost two-and-a-half years at the bank and will be replaced by Daniel Cristall. Cristall, who runs oil and gas banking for Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd., will replace Fleck as CEO on Oct. 31, Fleck said in an interview today. Alex Rothwell, head of corporate securities in Toronto for the unit, will become president. “Macquarie management and I came to this decision together,” Fleck, 54, said in a phone interview from Toronto. “It’s not adversarial at all.”

Macquarie, Australia’s biggest investment bank, is exiting its real estate and leveraged-finance investment-banking business in Canada, a person with direct knowledge of the change said on Sept. 4.

#108 Old Man on 09.26.13 at 1:47 pm

#30 Smoking Man – I heard this rumour that a one Daisy May will be going to the Seneca Casino to hunt you down in short order, as for me am hiding out just with this ^0^, as cannot take it anymore, as she is mean on me.

#109 Ann on 09.26.13 at 1:56 pm

recharts on 09.26.13 at 1:25 pm
Any stats on the other CREA practice of cancelling and reposting listings when price drops occur to influence the days on market?

I am watching a listing in ON that went on the market in May and is now on it’s 4th MLS listing, each with a new MLS number. When sold, the days on market will be counted from the last listing date and not the original date when the home went on the market in May.

And in case you are wondering, the home originally listed for $569,900 and is now down to $479,900.

I am watching this for Toronto
They currently have 796 listings that changed the MLS number with an average of 113 days on the market.

Some of them are as old as since I started monitoring the market
Average price $1.236M
460 of them under 1M
304 of them under 700K

Hope this helps :-)
.*******************************************
Way to much time on your hands

#110 Penny Henny on 09.26.13 at 2:01 pm

Problems getting it up.
Bob can erect it.

would have been funnier if his name was Richard.

#111 Bob on 09.26.13 at 2:05 pm

“Soaring house values are the most significant financial event of the past decade for the typical household. Now, it’s time to question how much good has come of it”:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/soaring-real-estate-sinking-prospects/article14533765/

#112 george on 09.26.13 at 2:15 pm

I completely agree with you Garth, but let me tell you something, houses are selling at a slower pace than before, taking longer to sell them but selling nevertheless. GTA broke all common sense and logic….I think is happening the unthinkable, braking any economic rules, economic books have to be re-written after this. New economic world!!

#113 Bob on 09.26.13 at 2:30 pm

From the Globe article on soaring home values:

“The best thing that could happen to the housing market would be a long cooling-off period of stagnant prices, or even a modest decline. If you care about a sustainable, accessible housing market for you and your kids, that’s what you should hope for.”
——————————————————–
I don’t see how prices could just stagnate for many years. I’ve never seen a previous period in Canadian real estate where prices peaked out and then just stayed flat. They’ve always declined substantially first.

Now with homes at an all time peak in values, home ownership rate so high, debt at historic levels, interest rates set to rise, the demographic headwinds… I can’t see a period of JUST Stagnation.

#114 Uwinsome on 09.26.13 at 2:37 pm

Canada “won’t take no for an answer” from the U.S. when it comes to the Keystone XL pipeline, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Thursday as he sharpened his sales pitch for the controversial cross-border energy proposal.

http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Harper+face+business+leaders+today+during+visit+York/8963283/story.html

I bet those Yanks are scared now. — Garth

#115 recharts on 09.26.13 at 2:44 pm

@Ann
“Way to much time on your hands”

Some people use their hands (manual work)
Some people use their head (automated work)

In case you wonder computer programs were invented in order to save humans time or to extend their brain power.

Ann, please use a computer next time..but not so save your time. This might result in better content in your replies

#116 Uwinsome on 09.26.13 at 2:44 pm

I bet those Yanks are scared now. — Garth
———————————————–
I thought you’d like that.

#117 Donald Trump on 09.26.13 at 3:18 pm

#107 Canadian Watchdog on 09.26.13 at 1:38 pm
QUOTE:

Macquarie, Australia’s biggest investment bank, is exiting its real estate and leveraged-finance investment-banking business in Canada, a person with direct knowledge of the change said on Sept. 4.

====================================

http://lailayuile.com/2010/12/22/sea-to-sky-highway-changes-hands-as-macquaries-essential-asset-partnerships-sells-100-of-their-stake-in-the-project/

I assume its the same McQuarrie:

Interesting why bailing…given lots of BC mega projects still forthcoming.

Perhaps get out of jurisdiction now before some SHTF?

#118 gladiator on 09.26.13 at 3:55 pm

@115 recharts
ha ha. Liked your reply. I automate things too and reduce days of human work to minutes of computer work. Lots of fun and huge savings to the company.

#119 No more Psyops..please on 09.26.13 at 4:22 pm

#114 Uwinsome on 09.26.13 at 2:37 pm

Canada “won’t take no for an answer” from the U.S. when it comes to the Keystone XL pipeline, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Thursday as he sharpened his sales pitch for the controversial cross-border energy proposal

^^^^

Sales pitch? I thought he was relying on psyops and fairytales.

“Choo choo train go Boom Boom, ME want Pipeline,
Me want Pipeline”

#120 espressobob on 09.26.13 at 4:44 pm

#76 Ralph Cramdown

Appreciate your thoughts! Active/passive, hmmm? Maybe ‘hybrid’ would describe my investing schtick. Caught between both worlds, a work in progress if you will.

Enjoy your comments along with the links! Cheers.

#121 Canadian Watchdog on 09.26.13 at 4:44 pm

Canadian doctor total at record high

Canada had a record 75,142 doctors last year and they earned $328,000 gross on average, according to two new reports. The annual reports on physician supply and payments for both general practitioners and specialists were released Thursday by the Canadian Institute for Health Information. "The year 2012 saw the highest level of physicians per capita ever recorded in Canada," the authors of the reports said.

What's more, the six-year trend of growth in the number of doctors outpacing population growth is expected to continue since data from medical schools indicate more students are graduating with MD degrees.

Everything seems to be on track as Canada's dependency ratio has now blasted-off adn heading into stellar space according to PBO's recent projections. The challange: to boldly go where no free-unfunded universal health care system has gone before.

Better start eating lots of kale.

#122 Herb on 09.26.13 at 5:08 pm

Del Mastro Charged …

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-mp-dean-del-mastro-charged-under-elections-act-1.1869649

Join me, Garth: “Hallelujah!”

#123 Donald Trump on 09.26.13 at 5:25 pm

Re : MD’s

In BC recall an initiative to reign in health care costs by limiting the number of MD’s access to MSP.

This was successfully fought in court, aka MD’s could hang a shingle and get access to Gov’t funds for pay.

If this is till the case….we either have more doctors fighting over fewer patients…or else an inflated health care system.

IMHO, this does not benefit the patients, it actually becomes a major liability if not danger.

===================================
ALSO:

What Is a Hospitalist?

http://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=93946

#124 brainsail on 09.26.13 at 5:56 pm

What…? This will scare off any future bidders especially if they are from another country.

“The $4.7 billion takeover of BlackBerry by Canadian insurance company Fairfax Financial may be reviewed by the Canadian government on grounds of national security, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper suggested Thursday.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101066105

#125 jess on 09.26.13 at 6:12 pm

38 Kaganovich

the harper gov. should think about clamping down on blurry tax e/avoidance tax SCAMS that have no material substance except to pad certain pockets with bonuses

http://www.economicvoice.com/clamp-down-on-tax-avoidance-to-fight-poverty-says-actionaid/

..”“At present the tax system is failing many developing countries. They are suffering because of bad international tax treaties and rampant tax avoidance and they face huge pressure from large corporations to give unnecessary tax breaks.

“Reforming the global tax system is one of the most powerful potential weapons in the international arsenal. The OECD have acted, the G8 have acted and the G20 have acted. Now it is time for the UN to do the same,” said ActionAid International Advocacy Co-ordinator Sameer Dossani.”

=======

lynch mobs! really
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/aig-ceo-robert-benmosche-compares-bonus-criticism-to-lynch-mobs-20130924
61 PwC Partners Accused of Tax Crimes Over Bonuses in Spain Bloomberg
Federal Contractor Executives Get $24 Billion Per Year, While Low Wage Workers Fight for More Than $8.25/Hour

#126 Spiltbongwater on 09.26.13 at 6:21 pm

#122 Herb on 09.26.13 at 5:08 pm

In his private life wasn’t Dean Del Mastro a used car salesman? Are there any Realtors ™ sitting in the senate or cabinet?

#127 brainsail on 09.26.13 at 6:29 pm

Keystone Xl Pipeline

Have you ever wondered how much China’s environmental regulations would effectively contain greenhouse emissions if the Alberta oil sands bitumen oil was refined there?

There is a US Federal law that has been in place almost forever that forbids any crude oil that was produced in the US including offshore cannot be exported unless it has been refined into products. Canada should bite the bullet and create refineries then export.

“Think China’s coal-fired power plants are dirty? You haven’t seen anything yet.”

“The country plans to build up to 40 massive projects to convert coal to synthetic natural gas (SNG), a process that would dramatically increase China’s greenhouse emissions, and emit huge volumes of toxins while consuming vast quantities of water, according to a study released today by Duke University.”

http://qz.com/128181/chinas-plans-to-cut-coal-pollution-will-unleash-another-environmental-catastrophe-instead/

#128 Herb on 09.26.13 at 6:50 pm

#127 Spiltbongwater,

http://www.delmastro.ca/

#129 Steven on 09.27.13 at 7:12 am

It is easy to tell the un housed and un enslaved not to bend over before the financial sodomites. It is merely good advice and a public service. The question is will they heed that advice and avoid getting abused?
Sadly many will follow the crowd and get financially buggered for the sake of a roof over their heads that they can’t afford, can’t really own and all for the sake of being like almost everyone else. Following the crowd is generally a very bad idea.

#130 Pr on 09.27.13 at 10:17 am

Its clear that the majority assume those interest rate are here to stay. Look at the numbers of sales. Nothing will stop the buyers until interest rates go higher. And it looks like a long way to go.

#131 chojo on 09.27.13 at 11:28 am

Realtor fired for exposing YVR bubble numbers…..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u03UN4_nnvE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zMTHIkv-n8
(warning profanity)

#132 Spaccone on 09.27.13 at 1:04 pm

Also scratch Vancouver off the list…I’m not paying for perpetual rain…

“British Columbia has been enjoying an unusually dry summer, but that’s set to end in fall with a return to the usual forecast of near-perpetual rain. Late September through October may actually be wetter than normal in Vancouver due to Pacific storms.”