Integrity

TURD1

First, a request from a member of an endangered species: journalists.

“Calgary realtor with integrity?” the email from an Alberta reporter and editor to this pathetic blog is headed. “Hi Garth – I’m a journalist working on a story about the risks in the Calgary market right now, and wondering if you know off the top of your head of any realtors there who can/will/do speak honestly about the lay of the land.”

It’s not every day I see the words ‘realtor’, ‘Calgary’ and ‘integrity’ in the same sentence. So the cowboy  must be working on a very newsy piece, no doubt related to booming sales and prices, and how totally awesome that giant flood was for business. While folks were swimming around in High River rescuing distressed pets and anguished neighbours, agents in Calgary were giving interviews about what a catalyst the natural disaster would be for housing demand. Looks like they were correct. More evidence I just don’t have the right stuff to be a great realtor.

Anyway, if you have a suggestion for, let loose. The only realtors I know in Calgary are the ones who spend their days creating blogs about my shortcomings. Big deal. I write one myself.

Yesterday I suggested boffo sales in key cities during August would help ensure F and the Peckerettes consider a further round of market-murdering measures. There is dismay in the stone castles in Ottawa that higher rates, shorter loans and tougher regs have not stopped bidding wars for dodgy semis, rigid with bug spit, in hoods requiring weapons.

Those numbers are now materializing. No surprise, as a 1% surge in mortgage rates panics the inexperienced into buying high with maximum debt so they can save a few dollars a month. It’s a classic case of drawing demand forward – something many thousands of realtors will come to understand next Spring.

In poor Vancouver, where average families need to devote 80% of income to house payments, sales last month were up 52% from an awful August last year, but fell 15% from July. Prices are sticky, down only a little from last year, and listings have swollen. In Victoria, a similar tale – sales up 17% from 2012, but 7% less than last month. Prices? No growth. Toronto numbers, released this morning, are in line – sales up from late last summer, in the immediate wake of the mortgage rule changes. So, it looks like there’ll likely be more to come.

Housing activity is a worry for two reasons. It’s based almost entirely on debt, not income growth. And it’s divorced from economic reality. That makes it highly vulnerable to swings in public sentiment. All this is dangerous, now that real estate accounts for a fifth of the entire economy, more than manufacturing, mining and energy combined.

In case you missed it, the Bank of Canada left its key interest rate unchanged this week. Duh. There was no expectation of an increase, but don’t misinterpret this as good news. Rates are still at emergency levels four years after the financial crash because the Canadian economy’s slipping towards reverse. The latest job creation numbers have been terrible. The federal deficit is bloating again, and our trade numbers suck.

Consumer prices have increased more slowly than the bank’s target for 15 consecutive months. June was the worst month for economic growth since 2009. And the bank’s latest corporate survey found only 35% of enterprises plan on spending more on machinery and equipment in the near future, while 26% are cutting back. The rest are merely confused.

Inflation is barely moving the needle, and yet wages and salaries are growing at only half that pace. “It’s remarkable,” says RBC head economist Craig Wright, “how long it’s taken to turn around.”

It sure is. Any economist who doesn’t work for a real estate outfit will tell you the same thing: the housing market cannot travel in one direction while the larger economy goes in another. At some point we hit the wall. It’s that morning when enough people wake up and decide there are probably better things to do with $700,000 than buy half a house with a mutual drive in Leslieville or bury $1 million in a geriatric bung in Burnaby.

That moment came already for Alison. She told me today that of the 55 people laid off at her media production facility three months ago, none have found full-time employment. Some, like Max, were journalists. Others, experienced photographers, editors and admins. A few are doing freelance gigs. Nobody has steady pay, benefits, vacation pay or a pension. At least half own homes. Most of those are for sale.

In the years lying ahead, it will be all about liquidity. Any realtor with integrity will tell you that.

148 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 09.04.13 at 8:29 pm

Stock markets going up – the will of god/allah/yaweh or whomever you choose!

#2 Stomper on 09.04.13 at 8:31 pm

“realtor with integrity” – BWAHAHAHAHAH

#3 TO and GTA Sales and Stats 2013-09-04 on 09.04.13 at 8:31 pm

TO&GTA Stats and Sales 2013/09/04
GTACondos: http://bit.ly/1a7R2VX
905SFH: http://bit.ly/1a7R3cn
416SFH:http://bit.ly/1a7R5kp

#4 up up up on 09.04.13 at 8:33 pm

Markham is still running strong. I don’t understand how people are still buying. Oh Garth, knowledge of all, please share your devine wisdom on what is possessing people to continue buying?

The last time you posted this junk it was thoroughly discredited by other posters. Now I feel for you. — Garth

#5 T on 09.04.13 at 8:35 pm

Garth,

What would you have said if Vancouver numbers were down say 5% vs this time last year?

Right on track?

Why don’t you comment on the term used to describe you as a “housing perma-bear”.

That was an interesting paragraph in the news.

You read the news? — Garth

#6 up up up on 09.04.13 at 8:37 pm

DELETED

#7 HAWK on 09.04.13 at 8:41 pm

The larger problem is that the nutcases in Ottawa are obsessed with engineering a “soft landing” instead of letting the marketplace purge the rottenness out of the economy.

This madness may never have become this bad if Big Government had just left well alone in 2008. I pray they lose the next election.

#8 DreamingInTechniColour on 09.04.13 at 8:44 pm

The economic “flatline” Canada is now experiencing feels alot like it did back September 2008 when the wheels started to come off the US economy.

#9 timmy on 09.04.13 at 8:52 pm

Sales have increased significantly and you cite an example of less than 100 people in Canada being laid off. It seems as though there are so many people with a vested interest in maintaining high house prices that they’ve successfully been able to do so

#10 Mark on 09.04.13 at 8:53 pm

oops, there go those bonds, again. Tell them to get down from up there before they make a mess.

#11 Devore on 09.04.13 at 8:55 pm

#7 HAWK

This madness may never have become this bad if Big Government had just left well alone in 2008. I pray they lose the next election.

Do you really believe another government would do anything materially different? They all have to pander to the same demographic, and have to work with the same international/provincial/municipal counterparts and the same civil service.

#12 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.04.13 at 8:56 pm

HERE COME THE LISTINGS!!!!!!!!!!
(duck)

#13 Smoking Man on 09.04.13 at 8:59 pm

#6 up up up on 09.04.13 at 8:37 pm
DELETED

I just decrypted this delete

$#@/!?$) you =/? @*!#@/*#

#14 StatsFreak on 09.04.13 at 9:07 pm

Artificial. Housing, the stock market, botox, hair dye, fake nails. Gawd help us all. Nothing but artificial out there. The new world order is that there is no order. Does this mean gravity is doomed too? Impossible to make an educated decision about anything anymore, as rules no longer apply. Did I mention artificial?

#15 HogtownIndebted on 09.04.13 at 9:10 pm

A sad sign in the neighbourhood yesterday.

A couple who have bought a $700,000 plus small detached here in Toronto C2 area near where we rent told us when we chatted earlier this year they were crossing their fingers that their jobs would hold and they could keep their new home. The wife, a very pretty young woman, was a high school teacher, one of 248 targeted by the TDSB for layoffs this past spring.

Yesterday, I was driving to work off St Clair west and saw her unmistakable face as she was pacing in front of a shop, apparently waiting for it to open just after 8:30.

It was a cash for gold store. Then I gulped, and realized it was the first business day of the month, and the mortgage would be due. Hope they are okay.

It made me think of this article from a few days back:

http://www.thestar.com/yourtoronto/education/2013/08/30/ontarios_senioritybased_teacher_hiring_rules_shut_out_talented_newcomers_critics_say.html

Another teacher, underemployed in hogtown.

What strikes me about this story is how an otherwise bright person, like so many, may have made not one, but two big gambles in spite of demographic data otherwise.

First, he chose to go into teaching when it has been apparent for years that falling birth rates and closure of inner city schools means fewer jobs and tougher competition.

But I also noticed in one version of the story, a caption about him and his wife in their new Leslieville home. So it looks like they may have also taken a flyer on a @ $800,000 home, right near the demographic peak of the market, when good data and advice have suggested it’s the worst time to buy.

Seems like a nice, bright guy. But aren’t we all capable of making odd decisions in spite of good data and common sense that is actually right in front of us if we can just blow away the smoke and bs and see it………..

This is the tip of the 416 SFH iceberg melting and it will not be immune to a prolonged drop, not at all. Those who think otherwise or that we are different are fools.

#16 Smoking Man on 09.04.13 at 9:12 pm

Nobody has integrity everyone lies.

I respect people that lie, especially to eat and make a sale, and feed the crumbs to the ones that work for you.

Everyone lies. Including none lairs.
Case and point.

The Married guy.

Your in a mall with the wife, off in the distance you spot a spectaculo, (spectaculo = gorgeous large breasted woman)

The air condition is on too high if you know what I mean , you slip your shades on.

As she approaches and your eyeballs are in a hypnotic trance. Your wife who’s eyes have been glued to things to buy in the stores, see’s her at the last minute.

She gives you a bit of an elbow, were you staring at that bitch she say’s.

You say staring at who?

It’s lie, we all do it………

#17 bond bust on 09.04.13 at 9:12 pm

Yields are rising relentlessly. The mother of all bubbles

#18 Rob, INTEGRITY on 09.04.13 at 9:14 pm

Realtor,,,, integrity,,, how can that be when their is a finacial gain, job security and little to no regulation in the RE industry.

#19 Obvious Truth on 09.04.13 at 9:15 pm

It’s always been about inflation. BOC reneges today and Fed does the same. Beige book had a lot of modest and subdued messages. CNBC got it wrong again. Nobody there can read. Douglas Porter put the release through word and still didn’t get it.

We need a lot of inflation to fix the monetary mess.

No demand for money means rates can’t go up.

10 year still in downtrend. Anyone take a wager on sub 1% before 3%?

Gold stocks told the story today by rebounding with gold down.

It’s time to get serious about inflation. Hope war isn’t a part of it but I see defence stocks won’t quit.

I see Kocherlakota just translated the beige book for all the chief economists. He votes next year.

#20 Ted54 on 09.04.13 at 9:15 pm

I don’t always agree with your general predictions but you are spot on the money Garth. Next spring will be a complete disaster. Enough of the economy is in the toilet. Interest rates are a problem but other in inbalances will cause the typing point sooner rather than later, you can smell it in the air, yes I am a Realtor.

#21 Canadian Watchdog on 09.04.13 at 9:19 pm

#4 up up up

Markham Sales (TREB)

Δ%____Q2 2012____Q2 2013____Area
64.7%____34____56____Royal Orchard
-22.0%____41____32____Thornhill
-63.2%____19____7____Grandview
-27.5%____80____58____Commerce Valley
-10.3%____68____61____Aileen-Willowbrook
0.0%____19____19____Thornlea
18.2%____11____13____Bayview Glen
33.3%____15____20____Country Club Estates
-52.0%____25____12____German Mills
0.0%____15____15____Victoria Square
42.9%____21____30____Cathedraltown
0.0%____19____19____Victoria Manor-Jennings Ga
-2.4%____42____41____Cachet
-23.1%____26____20____Angus Glen
-26.3%____19____14____Buttonville
-14.7%____197____168____Unionville
8.7%____23____25____Milliken Mills West
13.8%____94____107____Berczy
-19.2%____120____97____Wismer
-5.4%____37____35____Markville
-37.8%____45____28____Raymerville
38.7%____31____43____Village Green-South Unionville
-12.0%____25____22____Bullock
-11.4%____88____78____Milliken Mills East
56.8%____44____69____Middlefield
-12.8%____117____102____Greensborough
175.0%____8____22____Old Markham Village
12.2%____49____55____Markham Village

-4.8% Avrg____1332____1268____Total

down down down…

#22 HAWK on 09.04.13 at 9:26 pm

#11 Devore on 09.04.13 at 8:55 pm

Perhaps its marginal, but I do think the liberals did a better job than these so called “conservatives” that are not (fiscally) conservative.

#23 vangrrl on 09.04.13 at 9:27 pm

#15 Hogtown:
Teachers can always find work if they expand their horizons a bit (go overseas, move into ESL), and along the way have incredible, rewarding experiences. But have to let go of the idea of ‘security’ that a teacher in the past had, that’s true. Actually it would be a good idea if everyone let go of that illusion.

#24 Prairieboy43 on 09.04.13 at 9:30 pm

Next year may well be a disaster. Here in Alberta, I have been noticing how busy the outdoor sports shops are. Cabela’s, Bass Pro, Wholesale sports. People buying rifles like crazy. I guess to protect themselves from creditors next year. We talk about all the Cowboys in Alberta. Have you been downtown Calgary Lately. I would swear I was in downtown Vancouver. Not many Cowboys anymore.

#25 takla on 09.04.13 at 9:36 pm

Liquidity,aaawwwwwwhh,Such a great sounding word in the english language,having the ability to meet,extinguish and retire debt.Debt Slaves take notice…..the grass really is greener on the other side.

#26 FATHER on 09.04.13 at 9:39 pm

I don’t know but my post got lost, anyway’s garth are we still going to get that shocking news this week?

#27 The Cat Food Lady on 09.04.13 at 9:40 pm

In my humble, ‘unedumacated’ opinion, this is going to be a long, slow, painful recovery. The INTENT of emergency interest rates may have been good but Ms. Unintended Consequences is a hormonal bitch at best. In face of low interest rates, the smart people would have hammered down their existing debt, shoved it down into sewers & welded the covers shut. But no. Instead, they ratcheted up MORE debt – heaping buckets of swill, artufully disguised by the intoxicating odour of cheap credit.

And what a mess we have brought on ourselves.

Tell me, how does an economy recover when the average consumer is tapped out? When that same consumer has to count pennies to make the gargantuan monthly mortgage payment & pray to what they hold holy that the furnace doesn’t choose this month, this quarter, this decade to need replacing?

Every small business person I know – owners & employees is currently sweating bullets. Can they make payroll? Can employees get the hours they need? Increasingly, the answer is no. Fewer customers every month, more stores closing here – downtown is a ghost town with ‘For Lease’ signs everywhere there are storefronts. Some, well located; have been empty for well over a year.

So… because they’re locked into ginormous mortgages & squeezed by consumer debt, people are buying less. The people they’re buying FROM have to cut more corners, less inventory, fewer staffing hours… which puts more pressure on people. Seeing this, companies sit on cash – better cash than ploughing money into expansions that might hurt the bottom line & possibly kill a company.

I’m not going to get in line to blame the banks, the government or anyone else. No one forces anyone else to use a credit card, sign a set of mortgage documents, upgrade their car, big screen TV, homes or holidays. If you’re an adult, you own the consequences of your decisions. It’s unfortunate that so many would rather own flashy artifacts of the good life than own financial security.

I still struggle with the fact that banks are willing to loan so much to people earning relatively so little, with little chance of economic advance via wages/salaries. I know – they’re in the business of making money & too often, that clashes directly with the fiscal best interests of their customers/consumers.

At the best of times, it’s hard to achieve the balance Garth stresses, (rightly), is important. Starting out in life, pay is relatively low. We front end load our largest financial responsabilities – school, a spousal unit, children, a place to live, stuff to fill it with, transportation. No wonder many young people can’t see their way clear to starting savings & investments. And honestly, many can’t & that percentage is increasing as the economy shrivels on the vine.

Balance is something to aim towards & it’s almost a given for most that there will be stages in life when that balance seems impossible to attain. Equilibrium in most life & natural processes is not a natural state of being. It is something entities strive to attain & it’s the disequilibrium that keeps life interesting.

Right now the pendulum is so far to one side, it risks tipping the clock & smashing it. Until it starts unmistakenly moving back towards the center, nothing is going to get any better. Those venturing into the adult world of finances for the first time, think. Think twice, think thrice, think HARD about the consequences of your choices. Tomorrow comes a lot faster than you think. Poverty is no skin off my nose. I have enough for what I need & some wants. I’m a cheap peasant at heart. But I’m different that way & what I find acceptable & even enjoyable would shrivel the souls of most.

There – off the soap box.

Short version:

Get out of debt. Stay out of debt. Plan for the future so you can have one. Rely on your brain & calculator rather than cheesy smiles & glossy brochures.

#28 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.04.13 at 9:40 pm

@ #21 Canadian Watchdog on 09.04.13 at 9:19 pm
#4 up up up

Markham Sales (TREB)
……
42.9%____21____30____Cathedraltown
—————————

funny how one of the biggest gainers is a brand new community that couldn’t have had many re-sales in prior years (since the houses weren’t built yet).

#29 John in Mtl on 09.04.13 at 9:41 pm

@ #19 Obvious Truth on 09.04.13 at 9:15 pm

“We need a lot of inflation to fix the monetary mess. … No demand for money means rates can’t go up. ”

More inflation? No thank you, I already pay too much for food, gas and rent. And I don’t subscribe at all to the “consumer” way of life, it ain’t my value system. My salary isn’t even rising at the “official” inflation rate, let alone the real inflation. And I make very good money compared to the average.

To fix this mess, its time someone pushed a big “reset” button and thought up a new, equitable and more honest system. But that won’t happen, it doesn’t pay TPTB.

#30 Victoria - the Original on 09.04.13 at 9:43 pm

In Victoria, a similar tale – sales up 17% from 2012, but 7% less than last month. Prices? No growth.

I am being told to not worry about selling (i.e. putting the house on the market) as people think Victoria will just stay flat for the next for years.

#31 CalgaryGuy on 09.04.13 at 9:44 pm

Hi Garth: I have worked with a realtor that I have found honest (I did foreclosure work and he was always a straight shooter). His name is Troy Weber of Remax. Not sure what his opinion is about the market but he will give his honest opinion. Cheers.

#32 Chickenlittle on 09.04.13 at 9:46 pm

#23 Vangrrl:

True enough! Job security is a thing of the past. We are like a bunch of professional gypsies.

I did meet ONE honest RE agent. We were looking at a condo just for fun and I told him I would be going to school and wouldn’t be in the market for a couple of years (this was before I found Garth, mind you). He told me that that was better for us because condo prices were falling and by the time I finished school things would be more affordable. That was 2 years ago now, and he was right.
I wish that man all the best! If I remembered who he was I would give him a call in 10 years when the prices have gone down and I’m ready to own.

#33 Wally on 09.04.13 at 9:51 pm

))) In Victoria, a similar tale – sales up 17% from 2012, but 7% less than last month.

Of course sales are down from July to August. That’s normal seasonal variation. Is this your first rodeo?

I reported the numbers without comment. Try not to be a turd. — Garth

#34 Smoking Man on 09.04.13 at 9:55 pm

O’vey

Here we go again, a nip of cold in the air and we all know what happens to real estate prices and sales, seasonal decline. till spring.

Everyone thinks the slot machine just delivers a jackpot

Just hoping the fall slowdown will bring back LaughingCon out of the woods

I miss that goofballs posts.

REALTOR’S IN AN ALL OUT PANIC.!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Actually it’s summer that brings decline. The fall season is traditionally the second-strongest of the year. — Garth

#35 Blobby on 09.04.13 at 9:56 pm

Hi Garth..

Something you said yesterday interests me. Could you please explain how and why what the Americans do in Syria effects the bond market – and/or property market?

Im eager to learn!

Thanks

#36 2CentsCdn on 09.04.13 at 10:07 pm

a realtor with integrity?
Any sales person is paid to make sales. It saddens me that in our free market system, sales success is good …….. period! Other than drug dealers ….. no one seems to care about what damage is done after “the sale”. Realtors (like used car sales people and drug dealers) are just trying to make a living … and buy a house, a car, a dinner out with the wife (or crack hoe) here or there, maybe a bottle of wine (or three), send their kids to college, provide for their family and do the odd vacation ….. just like the rest of us. Most realtors I know genuinely think they are helping their clients and are making them happy (so it must be ok right?).

The Gov’t put things in place back in 09 with good intentions (to calm (or distract) the public during the GFC) ….. but this monster that’s become of it will have to be fixed by them as well. The players involved (home buyers, home sellers, and RE agents) are not going to come to their senses on their own. The crack and the high that it produces is too strong.

#37 Smoking Man on 09.04.13 at 10:08 pm

Actually it’s summer that brings decline. The fall season is traditionally the second-strongest of the year. — Garth
…………………………………….

Very True Garth but we had a late start this year, cold spring, pushed back everything a few months.

With Prozak keeping the overnight rate in the basement the herd wont care about fixed rates going up, and it is no certainty that fixed will keep rising.

VRM good for the next 3 years.

Honey house lust is what bubble heads are up against.
Logic is irreverent. Tough fight to win.

But, I am do a being wrong. :)

It would sure help my kids.

#38 aprilNewwest on 09.04.13 at 10:13 pm

#27 catfoodlady -“..downtown is a ghost town…”It’s so annoying when people don’t say what location they are referring to…….

#39 salonist on 09.04.13 at 10:18 pm

the fool on the hill

Gausebeck-Levchin

#40 The Cat Food Lady on 09.04.13 at 10:31 pm

#38 – aprilNewwest – Kingston. Ontario.

#41 salonist on 09.04.13 at 10:37 pm

Gausebeck-Levchin
but turner

#42 AngryMan127 on 09.04.13 at 10:48 pm

It’s different for these reasons:

Canada is tiny…economically and population wise.

Economic globalizatiion has permitted movement of captital to occur at speeds not seen before.

A very large number of new Canadians consider the best store of wealth to be in real estate.

This is the shift that has occurred and why it doesn’t matter what the BoC does.

Tightening will do little without exit visas.

#43 Obvious Truth on 09.04.13 at 10:50 pm

#29 John

Wage inflation always follows price inflation. The Central banks want wage inflation too because itmeans more tax money and makes both public and private debt look smaller in proportion. It’s more serviceable.

They just can’t get it yet but they will eventually. They have to fill in all the slack in western economies first.

If you are looking for a reset inflation is it. Just position for it when you see it coming.

A deleveraging reset happened in two countries.

Greece and Cyprus. But even the IMF says they goofed on that. In a major economy a situation like that would cause complete chaos. Devaluation and thus inflation would have been much easier. Instead they will destroy a generation.

Be careful what you wish for.

Nobody wants societal chaos where hope is lost.

Life will take care of individuals who carry too much debt. Leave them be. Savers always win.

#44 Bob Rice on 09.04.13 at 11:18 pm

Lot of differing opinions here… some are say rates can’t go up (post #19) while poster #17 says “yields going up, bubble imminent…”

I don’t know what to believe.. I am certainly no economics guru…. Not exactly a science is it?

Of course rates will rise. There is no debate. — Garth

#45 Bigrider on 09.04.13 at 11:19 pm

House prices going up in the GTA , period.

Canadians don’t give a s$&t about financial assets , don’t understand them , don’t trust them , won’t invest in them.

Canadians, new and old, of Italian, Asian, Persian , Russian or Jewish persuasion, or any combination thereof want to lick bricks on a ” nice piece of popety” .

Give it up Garth, you have been wrong long enough now, as have I.

Toronto really is ‘different’ but not for the reasons cited by the realtors.

#46 Smoking Man on 09.04.13 at 11:20 pm

The ultimate lie detector test. Credibility test.

Sir I like what your saying, I believe you sir, one more question, in your opinion was 911 an inside job sir, how did building 7 fall?

………

See what happens to me when I watch that episode of bugs bunny being jealous of daffy duck having a higher bounty on his head, bugs turns off the falls.

I love it….perhaps time for a coffee

#47 Smoking Man on 09.04.13 at 11:24 pm

What does a guy need to do to be taken to a FEMA CAMP
LMAO

Bring it on. I’m board
……………………………………….

You Know You Are a Neocon If…

You like starting wars you can’t finish.

If you do start a war you can’t finish, so what, it’s not like your kids are dying.

You think you are better than pretty much everyone else, especially poor people, who are the problem by the way.

You’ve never fought in a war, but you talk tough on Fox News.

While you parade around mainstream media as a “political strategist,” you’re actually on the payroll of Booz Allen Hamilton or some other defense/intelligence contractor.

Your name is Chris Christie.

When reading about the Revolutionary War, you find yourself sympathetic to the British cause.

The punishing amount of wedgies you received as an adolescent has made you permanently insecure and trying to act macho.

Your machismo really comes out when you have an opportunity to pick on people or nations you deem weaker than you.

You think it is “conservative” to ignore the Constitution.

#48 economictsunami on 09.04.13 at 11:30 pm

“All this is dangerous, now that real estate accounts for a fifth of the entire economy, more than manufacturing, mining and energy combined.”

Not that I don’t believe you Garth (I have read your writings before stating total RE economic activity is approximately 20% of the Canadian economy) but can you cite your source(s) for the above statement?…

#49 not 1st on 09.04.13 at 11:41 pm

Garth there are still bargains to be had in Regina, like this;

http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=13574167

#50 Musty Basement Dweller on 09.04.13 at 11:43 pm

Prices don’t seem that sticky on Vancouver Island. “Average” houses (3 bedroom, 2 bath)and neighborhoods (working class or bedroom communities)that I have watched in Duncan, Nanaimo, and Victoria are all down in the order of 15% over the past 3 years. Maybe prices in the other categories are fluctuating to mitigate that on an average basis, but I doubt it. I think most numbers out there reported in the media are watered down to look good or are BS.

#51 Tony on 09.05.13 at 12:02 am

Re: #4 up up up on 09.04.13 at 8:33 pm

Houses seem to be selling again in Markham after they stalled for a couple of months due to higher mortgage rates. Teardowns and rebuilds aren’t selling yet.

#52 FleetwoodBoy on 09.05.13 at 12:06 am

Fraser Valley update….can anything in the second paragraph actually be verified???

Didn’t know that volumes 13 per cent below 10 yr average represent a stable market!

“The Board processed 1,258 sales in August, an increase of 17 per cent compared to the 1,073 sales in August of last year however,the volume remains 13 per cent below the 10‐year average for the month.”

“In the last month in the Fraser Valley, we’ve seen an increase in sellers willing to accept an offer subject to
another sale, we’re seeing fewer deals collapse and we’re seeing more move‐up buyers, either improving on the size or quality of their existing home. These are all indicators of a return to a more typical,stable market.”

#53 HAWK on 09.05.13 at 12:26 am

#45 Bigrider on 09.04.13 at 11:19 pm

I disagree, people will have to give a shit about every asset class in the future or pay the price.

All asset classes go in cycles and that’s why its best to hold financial assets, RE, precious metals and collectibles in one’s portfolio.

Financial assets have greater risk but they yield income streams that PM do not and RE is half way between the two.

Diversification is what works……..throughout time

#54 Bobby on 09.05.13 at 12:28 am

Here in Victoria, Real Estate Board all excited that the summer months’ sales are the best of the last 4 years. Recall these are the geniuses that suggested that the government could raise interest rates to stimulate the economy so get into the market now. Of course, they forgot to mention that the total sales pale in comparison to 5 years ago. Oh, so much for reality.
But, back in the real world, popped into the bank yesterday to see about a mortgage. Lots of houses languishing on the market for months so time to vulch. Loans officer said mortgage market is dead. Offering cash back to lure customers. One gentleman I spoke to said some condos in his building are listed for 10% less than they sold for 6 years ago, and still no takers. So much for real estate always going up.
If you find that realtor with integrity, perhaps he may take a spin by Victoria.

#55 retired Boomer - WI on 09.05.13 at 12:29 am

#27 CAT FOOD LADY

Yes, and with emergency rates down, just how many people who bought, or built a modest home in say the 1990’s re-fied at a lower interest rate – without adding debt to the equation so they could pay off that shit box with “cheaper dollars or, Loonies” as the case might have been? DAM FEW!

No, instead they sold that “appreciated house” and bought MORE house. Well,. the worm turned, jobs suck-if you have one-job openings suck worse if you need one.

If they had not been greedy they might well have paid off that initial modest place, and then the bad times would not be feeling quite so glum.

Human nature is NOT wired to be satisfied with the present, but to dream BIGGER.

I can’t speak for you, but I know I don’t have the latest car, a flat screen TV, hell I don’t even own an I-pod.

I do have a decent investment portfolio that throws off decent dividends a modest home that’s paid for, and no debt. Do I NEED a fat monthly roll now? No a couple of grand pre tax is all I need, but not ALL I want. That’s where the investment dividends comes in, buys the wants.

It’s called “delayed gratification.” Some croak before they get there, some have bad fortune and can not get there.
Others were just planning well, and were lucky enough TO get there. Chance is a big part of the whole thing, too.

Others plan to fail, I mean fail to plan they might execute their plans more effectively than they might have dreamed! Pity them

#56 Tony on 09.05.13 at 12:40 am

Re: #19 Obvious Truth on 09.04.13 at 9:15 pm

Gold fell yesterday because the ADP jobs data comes out today. The Friday jobs report will obviously show either a huge increase in employment or a huge decrease. Since the stock market went up yesterday and the metals markets fell sharply at the same time i’d have to believe the jobs report will this Friday will be extremely weak.

#57 willworkforpickles on 09.05.13 at 12:42 am

Fundamentals – (now in a perennial non existent no man’s land) – can really only be regarded in a somewhat sane and honest system…. Why mining stocks and real estate are in a fix. Canada is in a fix.

#58 Joe Calgary on 09.05.13 at 12:47 am

There is no sign of a slowdown in Calgary at all. Until I see at least 30% reduction in sales and a increase in listings for several mths in a row, there is going to be no price adjustments. Rental market is right and incomes are high. No correction here.

#59 Joe Calgary on 09.05.13 at 12:48 am

Meant to say rental market is tight

#60 Canada RE is a HOUSE OF CARDS on 09.05.13 at 1:20 am

Bigrider on 09.04.13 at 11:19 pm House prices going up in the GTA , period.

Canadians don’t give a s$&t about financial assets , don’t understand them , don’t trust them , won’t invest in them.

Canadians, new and old, of Italian, Asian, Persian , Russian or Jewish persuasion, or any combination thereof want to lick bricks on a ” nice piece of popety” .

Give it up Garth, you have been wrong long enough now, as have I.

Toronto really is ‘different’ but not for the reasons cited by the realtors.
———————————————————-

All this was possible on BORROWED MONEY. Take away CHMC and you will see a sh!t strom like you have never seen before. Even with CHMC the fall has started to happen as People are maxed out and now selling their gold or heading to the pond shop to make mortgage payments as credit cards and LOC are maxed out. Have you not noticed for lease signs all over the GTA as businesses go bankrupt or shut down for lack of profit? The RE industry which is greater then 20% of the economy reminds me of California just before the house of cards came crumbling down. The crash is already happening in slow motion and will pick up speed as it all goes down. Canada can not keep building houses and condos on the back of borrowed money. Canada is in the biggest housing bubble in Canadian history.

#61 willworkforpickles on 09.05.13 at 1:28 am

Hey Catfoodlady #27 – what you are saying is exactly what i have been trying to tell them.
But don’t worry…it won’t take 30 or more years for all that debt to work itself out and consumer spending to normalize again. It will turn around in about 7 years. Here’s how.
Wave after Wave after Wave after Wave of Bankruptcy’s will set the market straight in a relative short period of time where well after all is said and done, bankruptcy’s and all ….people will eventually have money to spend again and the games will begin anew .
Forget the postulated 30 to 40 years of self imposed indentured servitude to pay down debt to work through this debt monster before real consumer spending becomes healthy again.

#62 willworkforpickles on 09.05.13 at 1:40 am

A monster tree shaking is coming. It’s a monster !
…and guess who’s going to orchestrate it….??
-the government

#63 CONservatives hate Canada on 09.05.13 at 1:50 am

The crazy and evil conservatives who are the biggest socialists that Canada has ever seen. What kind of a conservative would lend out $600,000,000,000.00 in sub-prime mortgages and bankrupt Canadians and Canada? It’s going to get ugly out there. Look for crime to increase as people do what they can to keep a home they can’t afford as jobs are leaving Canada at a fast pace. Businesses are closing down as consumers are tapped out. Good job Harper you clueless moron.

#64 Sign of the Times on 09.05.13 at 2:41 am

I’m considering purchasing an automotive repair facility in the lower mainland and was looking for the blog dogs advice on this business as it pertains to the broader economy. Any thoughts or words of wisdom out there? Is this a growth area or do I keep my cash dry and wait?

#65 Integrity | The Affluent Boomer™ on 09.05.13 at 3:25 am

[…] Integrity […]

#66 Fake poster name on 09.05.13 at 3:57 am

I smell a “black swan” event coming. Only balanced investments have resilience during black swans.

#67 bigrider on 09.05.13 at 6:52 am

#53 HAWK response to bigrider at #45.

Nobody here cares about any of what you said. That was the simple point of my post.

#60 Canada RE is a house of cards- response to bigrider at #45.

CMHC is not going away though, is it ? As for other types of non RE businesses suffering, for lease signs in windows etc. you are correct but what does that have to do with the juggernaut that is the RE business, the juggernaut that continues to thrive ?

#68 maxx on 09.05.13 at 7:02 am

RE is one fifth of the economy.

The trading of property relies almost entirely on ever-increasing prices and hence greater fools to continue, whilst producing virtually nothing at all. Not the stuff of a balanced economy. On the contrary, it’s systemically destructive.

BTW, “rigid with bug spit”- second to none, pure GT imagery. LOL!

#69 Pr on 09.05.13 at 7:25 am

…Any realtor with integrity will tell you that.

Sorry to report, that most of them, don’t know much about that.

#70 maxx on 09.05.13 at 7:27 am

#168 Canadian Watchdog on 09.04.13 at 6:00 pm

“But unfortunately for central banks, mom and dad investors are not coming back into stocks in droves after so many crashes over the last few decades and with today’s headlines reading like this. They want stability, not gambling. Even if it only seems like stability while inflation diminishes their purchasing power.

You can tell and show them results about any trade or rebalancing strategy you want, they won’t trust it.”

You’re absolutely spot on. There is nothing more I’d like, than to be able to feel confident about investing some of our hard-earned money in ETFs, REITs, etc. We mitigate our living costs through smart shopping and continue saving relentlessly.
Many older people have had enough of HF trading, market swings, opaque markets, top-down information release, account skimmers, market “interruptions” and outright thieves. The headlines are rife with related stories every week.
Many have worked out what they need for their life spans and are unwilling to risk that.
Who can blame them?

#71 Bigrider on 09.05.13 at 7:30 am

TIFF film festival starts today.

Just one tinnie ,tiny clue that Toronto may indeed be a city for whom the world is aware of . Dare we say a ‘world class city’. Going to have to re-test may previous beliefs.

Intelligent people constantly re-test their hypothesis’

#72 pbrasseur on 09.05.13 at 7:34 am

@Sign of the Times

“I’m considering purchasing an automotive repair facility in the lower mainland and was looking for the blog dogs advice on this business as it pertains to the broader economy. ”

In very general terms… Yes it should be a growth area. There will be difficult economic times in coming years (not to mention population ageing) and during those times people buy less new cars and keep their cars longer, thus needing more repair services.

#73 economictsunami on 09.05.13 at 7:35 am

“According to data released last month by the Bank of Canada, the total amount mortgage debt held by Canada’s chartered just about doubled in the past four years, to $879 billion in June, 2013, from $436.6 billion in June, 2009.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/09/04/mortgage-rates-2013-canada_n_3867472.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-business

Throw in an average $27k in non mortgage related debt, meagre savings and average nominal wage gains barely keeping pace with core inflation (but falling behind the CPI every year.) and it certainly doesn’t bode well for a consumption based economy.

With provincial, municipal governments re-rationalizing their balance sheets, the federal government in stealth austerity, business investment awaiting clearer economic trends and sluggish global trade (imbalances?)…

#74 Bob on 09.05.13 at 7:47 am

Garth,
What would you recommend in this scenario. My mortgage is up for renewal, I have a lock on 2.99% for 5 years, or I can go variable at negative 40 basis points. Do you see the GOC raising the prime rate in the next 2 years?

Take the five. — Garth

#75 Ralph Cramdown on 09.05.13 at 7:55 am

“Preliminary results of the [CMP’s Brokers on Lenders] survey show that, on average, brokers now rely on sub-prime lending to make up 18.6 per cent of their deals, compared to only a few years ago when the number was closer to 10 per cent.”

Will Dunning says brokers are doing about 25% of all deals, and banks pretty much don’t do subprime, so we can do the math. 1 in 20 new loans countrywide is subprime.

http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/cmp-brokers-on-lenders-teaser-174934.aspx

#76 pbrasseur on 09.05.13 at 8:10 am

@Sign of the Times

To emphasize a bit. Right now people are buying record numbers of new cars with 84 and even 96 month financing for near zero interest, this is not a marginal phenomenon, almost a majority. This is just not sustainable, who’s going to be buying the new cars tomorrow when everybody is still paying for theirs? In other words more cars purshased that way today means less cars sold tomorrow (it’s the same than for housing really…).

#77 Dupcheck on 09.05.13 at 8:33 am

This should be the headline in bold letters, because it is 100% true:

“Housing activity is a worry for two reasons. It’s based almost entirely on debt, not income growth. And it’s divorced from economic reality. “

#78 Smoking Man on 09.05.13 at 8:35 am

Bubble heads your not going to like the headline in the Financial Post this morning.

Now I’m not trying to rub salt in a massive open cut, but just reinforcing my long call on Toronto real estate and why this keeps happening.

Maybe I should build a Herdomitor..

Head line reads, you ready for this.

TORONTO HOME SALES JUMP 21 PRECENT IN AUG.

#79 Bob on 09.05.13 at 8:54 am

Thanks Garth, I’m leaning that way. I was lucky enough to get the low rate on renewal and feeling good about making some extra principal payments to help bring down the principal before the next round. I’m a bit peeved that I didn’t lock in at 10 years when I had the chance, but I figure better pay off more of the principal now to make any difference from a higher rate 5 years from now.

pbrasseur, short term thinking I guess. I’ll be running my car until it is no longer safe to do so or when the cost to repair out-ways the cost to by new. I’m car payment free going on my 2nd year. If feels great not dropping $400 a month on a depreciating asset.

#80 AndrewAB on 09.05.13 at 9:07 am

Calgary Realtor Bob Truman. Integrity.

Mr. Bob wrote on his blog recently(since deleted) that he had taken the summer off due to a family matter.

Yet…he was quoted in the recent issue of Report on Business magazine as saying that he couldn’t get clients fast enough to listings before they were sold right out from under him!

Maybe it was Bob’s double that allowed him to both take the summer off and show listings clients at the same time?

Bob Truman. Integrity.

#81 241A65 on 09.05.13 at 9:09 am

‘ “It’s remarkable,” says RBC head economist Craig Wright, “how long it’s taken to turn around.” ‘

Actually, Garth, this whole financial crisis began in 2008, which makes it FIVE years, not four, that central banks have had emergency rates in place and governments have been deficit-spending stupidly. Admittedly, the Fed may have waited until 2009 to cut rates to zero but the actual crisis started in September/2008 with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and some would argue – myself included – that the crisis really began in August/2007 with the initial collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market. So that’s SIX years now of ‘financial crisis’, rivalling the Great Depression in longevity.

All this is a roundabout way of saying, both to you and to Mr. Wright, quoted above, that perhaps the current policies espoused by the Obama administration and followed, to a greater or lesser degree, by other Western nations, AREN’T WORKING. By that I mean absurdly low interest rates, uncontrolled government spending, high taxes – especially in Europe and America – and a profoundly anti-business attitude, again especially by the Obama administration. Unfortunately ‘progressives’ are in charge everywhere and they will stick with these discredited Keynesian policies until there is no more money to borrow, at any rate of interest. But hey! they don’t have to worry. The taxpayers will continue to support them in the style to which they have become accustomed. ‘Progressives’, indeed.

You keep talking about America being ‘back’. Take a look at today’s planned-layoff announcement from Challenger Grey & Christmas and the static level of jobless claims, which indicates US employers have run out of people to fire. Even tomorrow’s employment rate is forecast to be at 7.4%. 7.4%! Time for a new approach, I think, but I won’t hold my breath.

#82 seren on 09.05.13 at 9:17 am

“It’s a classic case of drawing demand forward – something many thousands of realtors will come to understand next Spring.”

Yeah we’ll see. Everything was supposed to start happening by now. I am a bear on the market but am truly starting to wonder. Maybe the feds can artfully tread through these waters because so far no price melt. Until BOTH interest rates variable and fixed go up, this market may continue to levitate for years to come.

I have no data on this but would like to know if in the 90-91 crash if sales jumped like that dramatically ahead of perceived interest rate hikes.

#83 Spiltbongwater on 09.05.13 at 9:23 am

Of course rates will rise. There is no debate. — Garth

The debate is when they will rise. Saying something will rise, and not providing any sort of timeline is lol. I might as well say it will rain eventually.

Five-year mortgage rates up 1% in the last three months. You were saying? — Garth

#84 Stickler on 09.05.13 at 9:31 am

“Housing activity is a worry for two reasons. It’s based almost entirely on debt, not income growth. And it’s divorced from economic reality. ”

Well said!

Many smart people would say the exact same thing about the current US economy.

Really? US car sales up 20% in August. US housing prices up 12.7% year/year. Over 175,000 new jobs created last month. — Garth

#85 Joyce on 09.05.13 at 9:50 am

Early this spring in a national vote members of the Canadian Real Estate Association voted down a Rate Your Realtor Experience “RYRE” rating system. Today, Independent of CREA, RYRE.ca is live and any Canadian can get a fully independent rating on EVERY realtor in Canada.

The rating is the only one in North America, not based on sales volumes or income levels. The rating is based on Ethics, Professionalism, Performance and Consumer Satisfaction, with the Agent having NO input in the rating process.

#86 Infused with Opiates on 09.05.13 at 9:58 am

This is a surprise.

http://www.vireb.com/assets/uploads/08aug_13_sales_summary_5118.pdf

Every area up from last year.

#87 realitybites on 09.05.13 at 10:00 am

Real Estate was the hot hand for a while….and during the cycle you couldn’t miss…..thats how a market works long term…..but that cycle is past due for a correction……we know that because the government cannot afford to maintain the massive ‘stimulus’ bond buying programs of the past 14 years. But……14 years is infinity for some and they have no other measure…..some have begun to think that zero rates are the new norm……people and governments who have taken this philosophy as gospel are in for a rudee awakening.

So it is with the hot hands of income investing…….people who are touting ‘average’ investment returns of 8% over the term of the cycle…..but that cycle is now turning……the hot hands are beginning to recieve the bums rush off the pages of this cycles chapter.

Just like the dinosaurs who plead with the gods that prices must never come down…..so the hothands of ‘balanced ‘ nvestments are seeing the first shot across the bow and how bonds, prefferreds and utilities have come down. RE fanatics insist that prices will hold and that activity will return to the haydays of yesteryear……so the hot hands of ‘balanced’ investing insist that buying the falling knife will provide security…..that values will return…that this swoon is a ‘buying opportunity’……history is not the hot hands friend.

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/09/05/the-end-of-income-investing-for-now/

It’s easy to be right when the market is going up…..but not so much when the macro changes…….just ask the dinosaurs.

#88 Garden Maven on 09.05.13 at 10:02 am

Lots of crowing here in Hamilton about our booming real estate market. http://www.cbc.ca/hamilton/news/story/2013/08/29/hamilton-housing-prices.html

Why are rising prices, and falling affordability, good news? — Garth

#89 Garden Maven on 09.05.13 at 10:14 am

Exactly….not good for a lot of people
http://www.cbc.ca/hamilton/news/story/2013/09/04/hamilton-housing-renters.html

#90 Ralph Cramdown on 09.05.13 at 10:35 am

#81 241A65

That’s breathtaking. Your ignorance of economics AND current world fiscal and monetary policy is superbly offset by your skills in spelling and grammar.

Let us examine your prescription for the US: Taxes are too high, and deficit spending in a downturn is foolish. Thus the government should cut spending enough to balance the budget, cut again when reduced taxes (resulting from reduced government spending and private income) put the budget in deficit, then cut taxes and cut spending again (and again…). Rather than a repeat of the Great Depression* — worldwide — and a country filled with suicide, soup kitchens and the itinerant unemployed, I suppose you believe that … aw, hell, I don’t know what crazy fairy tales you believe.

You can probably get yourself a perfectly decent economics education at your local library, but when someone states a theory as a fact, ask yourself if it has held up under recent economic conditions.

#91 linda mulligan on 09.05.13 at 10:37 am

Re: Timmy @ 9:04 – if you want ‘bigger’ job losses, check out Penn West – over 275 people in the most recent (August 2013) downsizing; also check out CP Rail – over 500 people chopped since the beginning of 2013 in Calgary, roughly 2,500 jobs cut Canada wide I believe. There are plenty of payday cash loan companies operating in Calgary, lots of advertising for ‘cash for gold’ operations too. Alberta may be a job generator compared to the rest of Canada, but that does not mean the economic slowdown isn’t in effect here too

#92 Oceanside on 09.05.13 at 10:53 am

#86 Infused with Opiates on 09.05.13 at 9:58 am
This is a surprise.

http://www.vireb.com/assets/uploads/08aug_13_sales_summary_5118.pdf

Every area up from last year.
_____________________________________________
Interesting….Most involved around the Parksville/Qualicum area acknowledge that prices are down here about 9% on average. Sales are up but there are lots of price reductions daily that contribute to this good summer market. Also because of the demographics of the buyers there are very few mortgages, mostly cash buyers in their late 50’s and early 60’s who have moved from larger centres

#93 Ralph Cramdown on 09.05.13 at 10:57 am

#81 241A65

Here’s government employees (all levels) as a % of the population in the US:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=m67

And here’s government taxes (all levels) as a fraction of GDP:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=m68

Do these facts fit your view of the world? Maybe the data’s cooked?

#94 R on 09.05.13 at 11:02 am

This is getting very comical. First Garth pushes the doom and gloom scenario to 2017. Now nick picking examples to prove his point.

What a 10% potential drop would do when price has increased more since the GFC. People live in their home for 10yrs or more. Price are sticky and would recover fast.

#95 45north on 09.05.13 at 11:09 am

HogtownIndebted: from your link: Regulation 274 has rewritten the rules for hiring Ontario teachers for long-term contracts or permanent jobs. Meant to address long-standing concerns of nepotism raised by Catholic teachers, it now applies to all public school boards. Principals now have no choice but to hire from among applicants who’ve been working the longest.

Yesterday, I was in attendance to listen to a teacher who certainly would be among those had worked the longest. What a performance. She needs to retire.

“Principals now have no choice but to hire from among applicants who’ve been working the longest.” This edict is how the Headmaster was selected in the novel Gormenghast.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gormenghast_(novel)

#96 AndrewAb on 09.05.13 at 11:21 am

Did I say Report on Business magazine?

Bob Truman’s views on Calgary real estate (all one line of it) can actually be found in the Sept. 2013 issue of the Financial Post magazine.

#97 Bad news hidden in the TREB reports on 09.05.13 at 11:23 am

YTD $Volumes for Condos in 416: 0.95 of 2012
YTD $Volumes for Condos in 905: 0.92 of 2012

While the prices are holding or increasing the all in all situation is not as rosy as the reports show. The above are calculated based on their own numbers.

#98 Nemesis on 09.05.13 at 11:36 am

Thematically apropos of today’s leader illustration; AuthenticBizarro’Zen’ from the HomeOfTheBrave [brought to you by NSFWCORP – “The Future of Journalism. With Jokes.”]…

TheStraightPoop on the Integrity of California’s WasteWater&Sewage DisposalSystems.

[NSFWCORP] – Welcome to Shitdump, California
By Yasha Levine

…”When I moved to Victorville in 2009, Hinkley’s remaining residents were fighting another looming toxic threat. A shady company called Nursery Products was set on turning 160-acres of dry desert on the edge of town into a massive open-air shit-processing facility designed to handle 400,000 tons of concentrated human feces every year, the output of roughly 1.5 million human digestive tracks…

Sludge is a thick, black-brown pudding-like substance that’s left over after raw sewage waste is filtered at a wastewater-treatment plant…

…Naturally, anyone living within a 30-mile radius of the proposed Nursery Products shit dump objected to the plan. The area is prone to high winds and powerful flash floods, which all but guarantees that its toxic, bacteria-infested sludge particles would be scattered by wind and water for miles around. Not only were opponents worried that the stuff would engulf Hinkley, with its 2,000 people, school, alfalfa fields and dairy farms, but that toxic sludge particles would surf the powerful desert wind all the way to Barstow, a city of 22,000 and a major thoroughfare for traffic moving between Las Vegas and Los Angeles.”…

https://www.nsfwcorp.com/dispatch/shitdump-california/42b4d13620b02bdfc6080e0942229e186dd7c014/

The link will expire in 48HRS

#99 yo on 09.05.13 at 11:40 am

What the amazing thing is, what is happening now in Canada is already happening all around the world

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-04/australia-gold-coast-homes-at-50-below-2010-lure-buyers.html

It blows my mind as the US market melted and economies like Australia have had a pull back…people will put 5% down on a $1M house with 3 bedrooms and no drive way…in Canada.

#100 CantRememberMyName on 09.05.13 at 11:41 am

Students at Saint Mary’s University in Halifax are shocked and disappointed by their own behaviour after a video of them chanting about non-consensual underage sex with girls was posted online, says the president of the students’ union.

These are the idiots keeping the housing market afloat. And I am sure they are all “shocked and disappointed by their own behaviour” as well ;) What a pretty world we are building. LMAO

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/story/2013/09/05/ns-saint-marys-video-apology.html

#101 Unknown Marketer on 09.05.13 at 11:43 am

Hey Garth…

Just to add another factor into the BC Market is the Depreciation Reports that come into effect Dec 13, 2013.

This in my opinion is going to put even downward pressure on prices.

http://www.housing.gov.bc.ca/strata/regs/

What’s your thoughts?

#102 All Idiots In Calgary on 09.05.13 at 11:59 am

Im not a realtor and what you write in your blog isnt realistic for Calgary unless you will be retiring soon say 10 years, then you really shouldnt buy. Otherwise, you would be CRAZY not to buy considering the facts seen for the last 6 years in Calgary.

1) There are ZERO rent controls in Alberta. If you make your landlord mad he/she can skyrocket your rent once the lease is up.

2) Due to the zoning on the land most houses arent worth half of what they are priced at, yet most rentals are the same if not more for the place and those that are less than a mortgage are very hard to find.

3) Farming land has taken up much of the outer zones of the city so the city can not sprawl further out which pushes prices up. And for those farmers who do choose to sell land developers will use existing zoning to give 5-7 feet between shacks worth $500K.

4) Calgary timing is strange. Things move very slowly in Calgary yet real estate is all about timing. You as a possible buyer must be smart enough to circumvent the bs of the realtors and sellers to not only get a good place but a good place without the many hidden costs that you find out about later for repairs.

If you are going to be working more than another 10 years, can afford to renew when the interest rates go up, dont plan on moving, you would be a fool to waste money on a rental even if say in 2 years with a $420K house with 3% interest you only pay $7000 principal and the rest goes to interest. Given the rental rates and availability in Calgary, really what choice do you have other than leaving Calgary?

As much as Calgary real estate sucks in prices and what you get for the money, if you are in Calgary for work, and chances are you are, you are better off buying and you should disregard this blog. Wishing that prices were pre 2005 isnt going to happen unless interest rates hit 12% and the peons in power wont let this happen because people would go under and you wouldnt be buying anyway.

#103 Victoria - the Original on 09.05.13 at 12:24 pm

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/09/05/home-sales-toronto-vancouver_n_3874098.html

So everything is wonderful except for my house, on my street in my city.

#104 fixie guy on 09.05.13 at 12:26 pm

#14 StatsFreak : “Impossible to make an educated decision about anything anymore, as rules no longer apply. Did I mention artificial?”

Rules ALWAYS apply eventually. The issue is finding the relevant data. The market forces at work are artificial and result from arcane and niche changes to rules and regulations enacted by the federal government, especially those managing bank risk. In an environment temporarily driven by political whim and advantage the signals from price/rent, cap rate, listings etc. will always be masked and distorted.
That’s why trying to time the market based on normal free market signals is currently pointless at a detailed level. All you can know for certain is that it can’t last forever and eventually the money pumping the market runs out. Bricks don’t float.
That, or squeeze your knees and chant ‘new paradigm’.

#105 Donald Trump on 09.05.13 at 12:38 pm

#16 Smoking Man on 09.04.13 at 9:12 pm

QUOTE:

Your in a mall with the wife, off in the distance you spot a spectaculo, (spectaculo = gorgeous large breasted woman)

==================================

Alas, due the demographic changes , the frequency of this natural wonder is decreasing.

#106 DUI on Money Road on 09.05.13 at 12:50 pm

#76 pbrasseur on 09.05.13 at 8:10 am
——————————————
If the average car purchaser drives their car for 12 years, taking 7 years to initially pay for it wouldn’t seem to be drawing from future car purchases?

#107 Smoking Man on 09.05.13 at 12:52 pm

Tripping threw the universal consciousness consolidator, I’m calling War Off for now,

Bet accordingly..

#108 Drifted on 09.05.13 at 1:15 pm

Man there’s a crapload of “A Louer” (for lease?) signs in prime downtown Montreal locations. Seems like at least one per block, many huge spaces multi floors. Is that “normal”? Should commercial real estate investors be concerned?

#109 Tri State Pat on 09.05.13 at 1:16 pm

Taking a look at recent transactions in La Presse. It’s not the most scientific method of evaluating a market but nevertheless I have been looking at it for a few years, so one gets an idea on the general trend between asking price and selling price. This is the first time I see the selling prices differ by more than 10% in some instances. I have not seen this in a few years…

http://maison.lapresse.ca/habitation/transactions/

#110 Jas Girn on 09.05.13 at 1:20 pm

DELETED

#111 malcolm xxx on 09.05.13 at 1:41 pm

Luv ur blog Garth
Markham is still stable, my neighbor chinese by the way just returned from 3 month in his home town doing business whatever that means.
He subtly asks me if i am willing to sell my house/ he has friends from back home willing to buy.
I answer no. He ask why not ?
i tell him markhams basic foundation is good for long slow term growth
My neighbor says he will never leave
real estate is local (sorry for the old folks that dont know how to integrate)
and yes the canadian government is still giving out business investment citizenship
Have a great day yall

No, the investor immigrant program is suspended. — Garth

#112 Old Man on 09.05.13 at 1:45 pm

I have a quote today which involves the Real Estate market which Mr. Turner is correct about, and wars in general, as will kill one bird with two stones, if you will.

“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results.”

– Albert Einstein

#113 The Peg on 09.05.13 at 1:58 pm

Owners of the West Vancouver house once listed as Canada’s most expensive have dropped their asking price to $12.9 million from $37.9 million.

http://metronews.ca/news/vancouver/784593/price-of-canadas-most-expensive-house-plummets-to-12-9-million/

#114 jess on 09.05.13 at 1:59 pm

journalists aren’t going extinct it would seem they are being put in jail!

Wednesday, September 04, 2013
Being technically true is not the same as being honest
http://taxjustice.blogspot.ca/

Freedom of the press
By Sasha Chavkin Wednesday, August 21, 2013 – 4:15pm
Journalists in developing countries are being imprisoned in record numbers, most commonly under charges related to terrorism or subversion.As of December 2012, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists, there were 232 journalists in prison around the world, a number that has nearly tripled since the end of 2000. Fifty-seven percent of the journalists currently imprisoned – 132 in total – are being held on “anti-state” charges such terrorism, treason and subversion.

“One of the main reasons that the number of journalists in jail around the world has increased is because of the use of these anti-terror laws,” said Joel Simon, CPJ’s Executive Director.
http://www.cpj.org/

Journalist Barrett Brown faces prison for posting hyperlink
By Geoffrey King/CPJ Internet Advocacy Coordinator
=======
ICIJ’s investigative series on offshore secrecy update reaction and responses
http://cloudfront-4.icij.org/sites/icij/files/icij-secrecy-for-sale.pdf

#115 pbrasseur on 09.05.13 at 2:18 pm

DUI on Money Road

“If the average car purchaser drives their car for 12 years”

Average 12 year? You’re kidding right?

The reality is about half that

#116 jess on 09.05.13 at 2:39 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/09/05/pol-cp-harper-g20-debt-gdp-ratio-reduction.html

regarding debt to GDP
Mr. Flaherty said : “The Germans tend to be more prudent and frugal like Canadians tend to be.”

Prudent?
Starting on page 106 chapter titled, ‘ Deutsche Bank Helped Customers Maintain Hundreds of Offshore Entities’ ICIJ investigative series

#117 JimmyAAA on 09.05.13 at 2:45 pm

#90 Ralph Cramdown on 09.05.13 at 10:35 am
#81 241A65
That’s breathtaking. Your ignorance of economics AND current world fiscal and monetary policy is superbly offset by your skills in spelling and grammar. …..
Give it up Ralph, here is no arguing with Conservatives of the far right flavour (which is the huge majority these days). They understand only one thing – cut taxes. Its is all they have ever done, they cannot balance a budget, create growth, etc. They cut taxes. Period. It is the solution to all problems.
Its funny how so many Cons gravitate to this so called doomer blog, when Garth preaches balance in every thing and when he was a conservative was a bit of a red tory. And was a member of a government who introduced a new (and best) tax – the GST.
You can probably get yourself a perfectly decent economics education at your local library, but when someone states a theory as a fact, ask yourself if it has held up under recent economic conditions.
Why try and learn balanced or opposing views, when you can stew in your own juices with all your friends. And debating with them is impossible. Unless you are a hardcore pinko willing to go toe and toe and disagree on everything, they will just take any concession you give (because they are not completely wrong – they do have some points) and disregard the rest.
Not all conservatives are stupid, but just about every stupid person I have ever met is conservative. Why are all the dumb people attracted to it. Because simple solutions require little thought process. Unfortunately, life is complicated and messy.
#93 Ralph Cramdown on 09.05.13 at 10:57 am
#81 241A65
Here’s government employees (all levels) as a % of the population in the US:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=m67
And here’s government taxes (all levels) as a fraction of GDP:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=m68
Do these facts fit your view of the world? Maybe the data’s cooked?
Facts just confuse them. A response is unlikely.

#118 JimmyAAA on 09.05.13 at 2:48 pm

#90 Ralph Cramdown on 09.05.13 at 10:35 am
#81 241A65
That’s breathtaking. Your ignorance of economics AND current world fiscal and monetary policy is superbly offset by your skills in spelling and grammar.
===========================================
Give it up Ralph, here is no arguing with Conservatives of the far right flavour (which is the huge majority these days). They understand only one thing – cut taxes. Its is all they have ever done, they cannot balance a budget, create growth, etc. They cut taxes. Period. It is the solution to all problems.
Its funny how so many Cons gravitate to this so called doomer blog, when Garth preaches balance in every thing and when he was a conservative was a bit of a red tory. And was a member of a government who introduced a new (and best) tax – the GST.
===========================================
Quote
You can probably get yourself a perfectly decent economics education at your local library, but when someone states a theory as a fact, ask yourself if it has held up under recent economic conditions.
==========================================
Why try and learn balanced or opposing views, when you can stew in your own juices with all your friends. And debating with them is impossible. Unless you are a hardcore pinko willing to go toe and toe and disagree on everything, they will just take any concession you give (because they are not completely wrong – they do have some points) and disregard the rest.
Not all conservatives are stupid, but just about every stupid person I have ever met is conservative. Why are all the dumb people attracted to it. Because simple solutions require little thought process. Unfortunately, life is complicated and messy.
==========================================
#93 Ralph Cramdown on 09.05.13 at 10:57 am
#81 241A65
Here’s government employees (all levels) as a % of the population in the US:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=m67
And here’s government taxes (all levels) as a fraction of GDP:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=m68
Do these facts fit your view of the world? Maybe the data’s cooked?
==========================================
Facts just confuse them. A response is unlikely.

#119 Old Man on 09.05.13 at 2:51 pm

#105 Donald Trump – leave Smoking Man alone as we all know his wife wears the pants in the family as she is the boss, and this man shops, cooks, cleans, and even has to do windows for her, so give him a break, as he is in training.

#120 Wakeup on 09.05.13 at 3:18 pm

I think Montreal is slowing down because we have lower income and more taxes than most provinces. With everyone buying real estate at prices they can’t afford, people end up spending less in services, which is supposed to be the motor of our new economy. With unions everywhere in Quebec, I suspect that commercial real estate will be hurt too since less companies want to hire in this province. Construction is the major employer in the province, with almost no new condos and houses being sold now, I wonder what these people will be building in 1-3 years. The government is already freaking out because they are less taxes being collected, I think it will get worst until they realize that cutting in spending will be easier to manage in the long term.

#121 Donald Trump on 09.05.13 at 4:02 pm

‘There is no such thing, at this date of the world’s history, in America, as an independent press. You know it and I know it. The business of the Journalist is to destroy truth; to lie outright; to pervert; to vilify; to fawn at the feet of mammon, and to sell his country and his race for his daily bread. You know it and I know it and what folly is this toasting an independent press? We are the tools and vassals for rich men behind the scenes. We are the jumping jacks, they pull the strings and we dance. Our talents, our possibilities and our lives are all the property of other men. We are intellectual prostitutes.’

~ John Swinton, former Chief of Staff, The New York Times, 1953

====================================
What are FACTS anymore ?

…..needs a new definition given all the relativity out there.

#122 Nemesis on 09.05.13 at 4:17 pm

“No, the investor immigrant program is suspended.” — HonGarth

Sure about that, AuldPol?

“Ahem.”

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/releases/2013/2013-05-21.asp

Yes. — Garth

#123 bond bust on 09.05.13 at 4:34 pm

Oh, My!

Epic battle are being fought along the 3% line!

Simply breathless!!!!

#124 broadway skytrain on 09.05.13 at 4:40 pm

Yes. — Garth
——————————
looks like we locked up the front door, but the side patio door is still wide open….

cdn “cash-for-visa program that gives permanent residency status to those who are prepared to inject – in the form of a guaranteed, interest-free loan — $800,000 into the Canadian economy. Quebec operates a parallel program.

The Quebec program is more popular because the approval process is quicker and easier, and it takes in twice as many people, according to Vancouver immigration lawyer Richard Kurland.

Actually, immigration is good. Where did your family originate? — Garth

#125 aprilNewwest on 09.05.13 at 5:36 pm

#94 R – The correction in RE is happening and will continue over the next several yrs as I understand what Garth, among many others, is saying, Things may get worse in a couple of yrs as many will be renewing and will run into highter % rates which will put some under deep waters. Also higher % rates is not the only reason many will have to sell over the coming yrs but possibly may not find a buyer.

#126 aprilNewwest on 09.05.13 at 5:39 pm

#86 I would never take their numbers for gospel truth.

#127 RE bubble claims another closing on 09.05.13 at 6:04 pm

Green mountain coffee is closing it’s Toronto facilities affecting 160 workers who are now jobless. Another company leaving toronto/canada due to housings bubble. These almost daily closings will continue until workers in Canada can compete with US workers.

#128 RE bubble claims another closing on 09.05.13 at 6:06 pm

Canadian workers need twice the pay to afford more then twice the cost for housing. Good job CONS on your destruction of Canada. Way to spend $600b dollars on sub prime mortgages

#129 Smoking Man on 09.05.13 at 6:13 pm

#120 Old Man on 09.05.13 at 2:51 pm#
105 Donald Trump – leave Smoking Man alone as we all know his wife wears the pants in the family as she is the boss, and this man shops, cooks, cleans, and even has to do windows for her, so give him a break, as he is in training.
………………..

Unreal Old Man,
spot on,
do you work for NSA

Ha

#130 up up up on 09.05.13 at 6:20 pm

Bonds up and 5 year fixed going up 0.10 basis points tonight!

#131 maxx on 09.05.13 at 6:29 pm

#15 HogtownIndebted on 09.04.13 at 9:10 pm

“Seems like a nice, bright guy. But aren’t we all capable of making odd decisions in spite of good data and common sense that is actually right in front of us if we can just blow away the smoke and bs and see it………..”

Great post. Can happen to anyone. Strangest thing- spouse and I were talking about this very thing this a.m.

#132 Canadian Watchdog on 09.05.13 at 6:40 pm

For anyone who questions whether the rise in recent sales was purely driven by a rush to lock-in at lower rates, you might want to look at this.

Alas, now that whatever sideline buyers were built-up have been sucked in by lenders, means, the market will have to pay for it over the next year or so, and that's a serious problem if you're a developer with shadow  inventory or a presale speculator trying to unload an a nearby completing unit, especially detached, like this one, or even these.

Time to get reacquainted with this chart.

#133 cynically on 09.05.13 at 6:53 pm

To #81 241A65 – If, as you say, you believe the US crisis really began in 2007, then I must remind you that Bush and ‘your types’ were in power and had been since 2000. Those eight years have been contrasted with Clinton’s eight years as how not to run a country including the geopolitics of the time. While the economy was suffering and unemployment rising, “your types” were getting richer and richer. I call it the era of the billionaire movement which in the last election poured millions into their campaign to try and win back the “good old days.” You end by saying you won’t hold your breath for a change and I say, ah come on, try!

#134 Ralph Cramdown on 09.05.13 at 6:53 pm

“Officials at the Oakville and Milton Humane Society say they are removing more than 100 cats from a home in Milton. […] Spokeswoman Brenda Dushko says the seizure is putting a big strain on the humane society’s resources because they already have about 300 cats at their shelter.” n.b. combined population about 275,000 people

You might say there’s one insane party in this story, but I think there’s two. It’s just a matter of scale. Animal lovers, send cheques! They can’t do it without you.

#135 truthseeker on 09.05.13 at 7:02 pm

Housing market continues is relentless climb. This market will remain strong, as long as interest rates remain at these historic low levels. It makes no sense to call for a housing correction without calling for a
significant increase in interest rates!

“The country’s two most closely-watched housing markets — Toronto and Vancouver — posted jaw-dropping double-digit increases in sales in August.

The Toronto Real Estate Board reports a 21 per cent increase in home sales compared to August, 2012, while Vancouver reported a stunning 52.5-per-cent jump in home sales during the same period.

Toronto house prices rose 4.4 per cent during that period, to an average of $518,145, while Vancouver saw house prices drop 1.3 per cent year over year, though that is a much slower rate of decline than was seen in earlier months, and prices are up 2.3 per cent since the start of the year.”

Ironically, sales are up because rates are rising. Pre-approvalettes panicking. — Garth

#136 cynically on 09.05.13 at 7:14 pm

#99 yo – maybe the answer to your proposition is that Canadians may be more polite than bright.

#137 jess on 09.05.13 at 7:39 pm

Here’s where the we means them not all of us
“It was not because we lacked skills and knowledge that we found ourselves in these unfortunate situations. It was because we acted wrongly and we displayed wrong conduct,”

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business/Bankers_regret_past_conduct.html?cid=36811890&link=ers

#138 Donald Trump on 09.05.13 at 7:51 pm

Actually, immigration is good. Where did your family originate? — Garth

=====================================
Totally agree..

100% !!! (-99.9)

Borders are a waste of time….think of all the $$$ saved on Civil Servants that were too dumb to source cheap /free porn and instead do cavity searches….

…… if we in Great White(not racist !!!) North simply held a block party from PEI to Vancouver Island and the global village had BYOB on the invite….I mean it’s worth a try right?

#139 Bigrider on 09.05.13 at 7:59 pm

I guess Anne Rohmer has never asked you to appear on CP24 ‘s Hot Property has she Garth .. LOL

You and Al Sinclair shoulder to shoulder LMAO

#140 Nemesis on 09.05.13 at 8:02 pm

@Ralph/#135…

BonusZen

http://www.pentictonwesternnews.com/community/222183271.html

NoteToRalph: Just between the two of us, I would have run that piece – or at least renamed TheCharity – as, “CougarsForKitties”… MyBad. Aside: Earlier today, I wrote to the lexicographers who compile a certain DefinitiveDictionary, and urged them to consider adding, “Spectacul[ar]o” to the next edition.

#141 Today on 09.05.13 at 8:33 pm

If the market is so hot why are there so many listings lower their prices. Just look at the real estate section in the Mississauga news today. A number of higher end homes on wanita, birchview Wenonah all lowered their prices by $200,000. Sounds like homes are overpriced and people just want to get out before its too late. Sitting back watching and waiting for what evolves. Something tells me owners are panicking. They have both their flip and their residence on the market.

#142 jess on 09.05.13 at 8:35 pm

Kerry Tells Congress That Oil Sheiks Will Pay US for War to Unseat Assad
Truth-Out‎ – 6 hours ago

#143 Cici on 09.05.13 at 8:40 pm

On vacation in Victoria right now…holy, way overpriced! More on that soon…waiting for Garth to post :-)

#144 Slim Jim on 09.05.13 at 9:07 pm

#130 Smoking Man on 09.05.13 at 6:13 pm
#120 Old Man on 09.05.13 at 2:51 pm#
105 Donald Trump – leave Smoking Man alone as we all know his wife wears the pants in the family as she is the boss, and this man shops, cooks, cleans, and even has to do windows for her, so give him a break, as he is in training.
………………..

Unreal Old Man,
spot on,
do you work for NSA

Ha
………………..

We all have a little NSA in us, Jimmy boy.

#145 Daisy Mae on 09.05.13 at 9:13 pm

“No, the investor immigrant program is suspended. — Garth”

********************

Was this another government screw-up?

#146 Sheik Yerbouti on 09.05.13 at 9:41 pm

#143 jess on 09.05.13 at 8:35 pm

Kerry Tells Congress That Oil Sheiks Will Pay US for War to Unseat Assad
Truth-Out‎ – 6 hours ago

——-

“Government is the Entertainment Division of the military-industrial complex”

-Frank Zappa

#147 Donald Trump on 09.05.13 at 9:41 pm

Much dirt on S / M man…

after inter-mission and next G.F.Blog post.

#148 Uwinsome on 09.06.13 at 8:49 am

Tapering can start ‘later this year,’ says Chicago Fed President:

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2013/9/6/Tapering-can-start-later-this-year-says-Chicago-Fed-President.aspx