The manipulators

realtors

Things realtors don’t want you to know:

  • The Toronto Real Estate Board issued a media release yesterday saying sales were down “less than 1%” in June from year-ago levels. But the board did not compare current sales to the number it claimed in June of 2012. Thus, the real decline was 3.83% from last year’s published sales,  or four times the reported amount. Why not disclose?
  • House sales in Vancouver are weaker than the GVREB is revealing. Resales were higher than a year ago, but lower than May. “Vancouver home sales rise 11.9% in June from a year ago, says real estate board,” was the media headline. Confusing sales with prices, I even received gnarly emails about “the guy on the radio saying Van prices are up 12%.” Just what the realtors wanted. But in June of 2012 sales plunged 17% from the previous month, and the market started to fall apart. In reality, this June was 11% below the long-term average and the worst June since 2008. Van is still in trouble.
  • For more than a year, month after month, sales of homes under $500,000 in Toronto have been in decline. This continued last month. Only 1,329 condos changes hands, another 4% drop. Annualized that’s about 15,000 units, representing a 35% crumble in this market over the last two years. Anyone buying a condo now is jumping into a commodity moving towards illiquidity.
  • When Ottawa stripped CMHC insurance from houses selling for more than $1 million it pretty much screwed folks in the yuppie parts of Toronto, plus most of Vancouver. Now any buyer must have 20% down plus closing costs, which amounts to about $360,000 on a $1.5 million so-so-house in North Toronto or an unrenovated Vancouver Special. The result: sales have been hammered at the top end, just as they are falling at the lower end. Houses at $999,990 are hot, which tells you they’re being bought by people who need high-ratio financing. That’s a comfort.
  • Analysts at Scotiabank aren’t impressed with Toronto stats released Thursday morning: “Like Vancouver, last June was when the bottom fell out of the market via a 13.2% m/m seasonally unadjusted drop compared to May 2012 that made it among the weakest months of June over recent years.  Thus, the sharp shift lower in year-ago base effects is now containing the year-over-year changes but still leaving behind trend weakness in the resale volumes and a much cooler market than prior to the Spring of 2012.   Now with Q2 data, we are transitioning toward comparing against the much weaker volumes that began to emerge last Spring.  I therefore don’t buy the hype that the correction is bottoming or reversing just because the year-ago pace of decline is ebbing.” Absolutely correct. There is no good news here, unless you’re looking forward to buying a house next year for less.
  • Forgotten is what’s happening in the new housing market – SFHs and condos. It’s a bloodbath. In the GTA, for example – a market of six million people, fewer than 2,500 units a month are selling. May was the worst such month in history. Sales of detached homes are running 33% below the 10-year average, something which has not happened previously. Sales of newly-constructed homes (condos, townhouses, singles) so far in 2013 have plunged 35.2% from 2012, and 42.8% from 2011. The industry has never seen sustained drops of this magnitude.

That any of this should surprise you would be, well, a surprise. The economy has waned, household debt’s increased and now mortgage rates have swollen. Meanwhile prices have remained sticky in markets like Toronto, Montreal, Halifax, Winnipeg and Vancouver, which means the average family is falling behind trying to afford the average home.

This is why the market’s weaker, a trend that will continue until it’s so evident even Global TV and the Toronto Star notice. Then, as you know, it’ll be too late to get out and too early to get in.

The real estate industry is good at what it does. Data’s closely controlled and strategically released. Comparisons are carefully etched to create a sense of momentum in a falling market. And the realtors sure know all they need to about media manipulation.

Let’s end this little rant with a short trip to Burnaby, a Van suburb hyped two years ago as being a new target for Hot Asian Money. Aman says his realtor is “desperate to get me into a house” and has just dished up the latest stats to entice him. Average sale price in June of 2012 was $990,000. The average last month was $899,000.

“Down $91K in 12 months on 79 sales, vs. 83 last year.  I don’t know about you but that looks to me quite close to a 10% price drop!” he says. “And 364 Homes listed in inventory that are over the $1mm price tag, but only 27 moved.  That looks to me like roughly 7% of inventory turned over. Ouch!”

The times are precarious. Careful what you believe.

184 comments ↓

#1 Out Of Work Realtors on 07.04.13 at 6:38 pm

I feel bad for the good realtors out there. Yes there are some good realtors and you are seeing both good and bad realtors hurting real bad. Many haven’t had a sale in almost a year. As you can simple see on greaterfool that many realtors are simply out of work and don’t even have a single listing. Like I said I feel bad for those realtors that look out for the best interests of their clients. It looks like a long hard housing crash in Toronto and Vancouver.

#2 Dean Mason on 07.04.13 at 6:41 pm

They have been manipulating interest rates,bond yields for decades.The only difference is that most Canadians don’t have $500,000 or $1,000,000 in financial assets.

They don’t see that for every 1.00% point in interest rates,bond yields cost $5,000 to $10,000 a year.This is simple interest,compound interest is alot more in a RRSP,RESP,TFSA.They are all giddy that they have been saving all this interest for years from manipulated declining interest rates,bond yields that affect everything from mortgages to car loans,line of credit rates etc.

They buy more homes,condos and bigger homes,condos because of low mortgage rates.The central banks pushed people into riskier assets that they would never of bought in the first place.The real estate industry and all it’s related players are doing the same thing and know it’s game over for years to come.

Remember dividend yields,REIT’s,corporate bonds,high yield bonds,MBS or mortgage investments etc. anything income generating related investments have all been affected.It’s not just GIC’s,government bonds,savings bonds,term deposits.

Also,I am not sore,I’m just stating the obvious.It’s real estate’s time for a financial licking.

#3 HockeyNightInAmerica on 07.04.13 at 6:41 pm

In trying to prevent the depression of the 1930’s Bernanke and all the Global Central Bank Chiefs have re-created the excesses and imbalances of the Roaring 20’s with their blindness.

#4 Nicholas Ellan on 07.04.13 at 6:42 pm

Lies, damned lies, and real estate statistics…

#5 Freedom First on 07.04.13 at 6:42 pm

I remember the same pack of liars about the U.S. economy and RE markets when everything in the U.S. was beginning to crumble. And, after the liars could no longer hide the truth, all of the liars said the same thing “Nobody saw it coming”, of course, another lie. We have the same unethical selfish greedy pukes in Canada.

Thank you for being one of the exposers of the fraudulent culprits Garth. Takes steel balls and abs of iron to do what you do. Sad, there is so many parasites in society, and just as sad, so many unaware greater fools. Freedom First.

#6 armpit on 07.04.13 at 6:45 pm

DELETED

#7 Smoking Man on 07.04.13 at 6:45 pm

The Toronto Real Estate Board issued a media release yesterday saying sales were down “less than 1%” in June from year-ago levels. But the board did not reveal that almost 350 sales last year never completed, and yet were counted in the official numbers. Thus, the real decline was 3.83%, or four times the reported amount. Why lie?-Gartho

……..

It’s what smoking men do, we lie for profit get over it, we bet on the herd, we manipulate the herd, don’t bet against the herd.

Grow up garth.. You goody too shoes cracking me up

Ha ha

#8 Randy on 07.04.13 at 6:46 pm

Real Estate Boards nave Zero Credibility ? ….. Then they are now part of the Liberal Media…..Reality ain’t reality ..haha

#9 Old Man on 07.04.13 at 6:48 pm

This Real Estate stuff is so simple, and have seen the booms and busts for decades in Toronto; not to mention the other areas in Canada. Never follow the herd, as they are always wrong, so interest rates are going up a bit, and the fools might be rushing in with a pre-approved mortgage to buy anything before it is too late. This is insane, as this market is going down, so those that own should have sold out a year or so ago to take tax-free money to step aside for a rental unit, and park for years to hoop a bargain. Nope, as to rent is not cool, so stay in your condos and take a bath over the next few years, and lose everything.

#10 MWerk on 07.04.13 at 6:49 pm

Let’s not forget Calgary with now ‘renewed’ real estate market due to some flooded properties…

#11 Donald Trump on 07.04.13 at 6:50 pm

First for me is redundant

#12 CantRememberMyName on 07.04.13 at 6:50 pm

“The times are precarious. Careful what you believe.”
Ain’t that the truth…

#13 Bo Boka on 07.04.13 at 6:54 pm

“Average sale price in June of 2012 was $990,000. The average last month was $899,000.”

Still grossly overpriced.

#14 Alex K on 07.04.13 at 6:57 pm

Garth you’re really early today!
how come realtors are allowed to manipulate these numbers? shouldn’t this be Illegal?
Maybe Mickey the realtor can comment on this when he’s done with his tennis,eh? or collecting empty bottles, eh Mickey?
first for sure today

#15 Property Accountant on 07.04.13 at 6:58 pm

Friend couple of mine purchased a newly built house in Georgetown (Toronto exclusive suburb where white folks live). They waited 2 years, paid 542K with upgrades, 400K mortgage. Moved in last weekend. Both gross income is 110K. Got 2 new cars on financing 20K each, to celebrate that special occasion. HELOC will take care of it, no worries…they said.

Another friend couple has 389K house in Brampton, 250K mortgage, 120K HELOC that is maxed out because retail store business in Brampton she runs losses 1K a month, without salary paid.

Did taxes for both couples, there is nothing else they own but a house. And there is nothing I could do, those people simply need to be SAVED. By someone or something. I tried once myself and I lost a friend. There is no sense of losing friends by being Jesus Christ…(or an immigrant accountant in this case) unless you want to die for the sins of Canadians.

#16 StickAForkInIt on 07.04.13 at 7:01 pm

Third? :)

#17 Oakville Resident on 07.04.13 at 7:07 pm

Hi Garth,

I love your blog & had the pleasure of being one of the residents in your riding.

There are new homes being sold in River Oaks for 975K +

The lots have been prepped but I haven’t seen any sold signs.

Garth, what’s your outlook for Oakville/Milton?

#18 Disturban behaviour on 07.04.13 at 7:10 pm

Garth, wondering if you’ve heard of the condo-tropolis of Pitt Meadows, BC an hour from downtown, connected to langley by a giant toll bridge where developers are now trying to sell zoned lots and seem to be waking away from developments.

There are a horde of new builds right off of Lougheed Highway with foundations being poured on another multiple hundred units.

The vacancy rate is insane and I don’t understand where the people who are going to live in these buildings are to come from? Displaced Calgarians?

Plus check out the 1.2mil condo in the centre of town.

#19 city that smells like it sounds on 07.04.13 at 7:14 pm

Furrst!

Regina – it must really be different here. I think it must be insulated from the rest of this mess as Garth won’t post any analysis.

#20 Lilyflor on 07.04.13 at 7:14 pm

Lies, damned lies, and statistics

#21 Van Isle Renter on 07.04.13 at 7:18 pm

Still don’t understand why realtors are able to get away with making fraudulent statements. If a CEO of a company said these things he or she would be in the Crowbar Hotel.

Anyhoo… RE prices and volumes dropping on the Island, so we’re sitting tight. Liquid and loving it. May go buy a boat next week. Prices on those are dropping faster than real estate. Vultch time!!!

#22 Deadmonton on 07.04.13 at 7:19 pm

Like a compost pile, the real estate market seems to generate its own heat. Not bad – as long as you don’t mind the flies and keeping adding manure to the pile.

#23 Renting in Vic on 07.04.13 at 7:22 pm

If the numbers counted 350 sales last year that didn’t complete – wouldn’t that have made things look worse not better? Then again, this year probably includes a similar number of failures.

#24 Rob on 07.04.13 at 7:23 pm

Let it crash.

#25 Rob on 07.04.13 at 7:23 pm

Was I first?

#26 Peter on 07.04.13 at 7:28 pm

Hi Garth,

Does the American equivalent of TREB compile stats and releases differently than Canadian cities?

I am preparing to sell a rental in Toronto but I don’t see any negative flow at all in the HOUSE market , semis and detached alike , up for sale , then sold , usually close to asking or above depending on the number of bids.

You referenced a decrease in sales of houses below 500k in TO, it may be because there aren’t any left.

thank you

#27 John Prine on 07.04.13 at 7:31 pm

#5 Van Isle Renter on 07.04.13 at 7:18 pm
Still don’t understand why realtors are able to get away with making fraudulent statements. If a CEO of a company said these things he or she would be in the Crowbar Hotel.
*********************************************

It’s not your local realtor spinning all this, it is the boards in places like Vancouver and Toronto. Most realtors are trying to convince people that if their house has been on the market for 300 days and has had 10 open houses that it is priced too high……

#28 not 1st on 07.04.13 at 7:34 pm

I don’t know Garth. The same things happens every month. The boards push their number, gloss the stats, MSM vomits it out to the general public and the whole thing continues.

I don’t think we are going to see a pull back in RE until the greater economy falters.

#29 craig on 07.04.13 at 7:35 pm

I just watched a show called Hot Property on CP24 and they said this years debt is currently sitting at 161% down from 250% last year. The expert interviewed also said that number included mortgages.

No doubt in my mind prices will drop in the 10-15% range but that’s it and I think that’s a healthy correction.

I think one thing we can all agree on is no one trusts anyone’s numbers anymore. You just have to have a feel for what’s going on around you and go with your gut.

Whether it’s the US’s numbers on the economy, interest rates, whatever.

Realtors are salespeople – salespeople in ALL areas LIE. That’s simply what they do to close any deal. They have to eat and feed their families and will do anything to get that commission.

Cars, houses, TV’s, anything…..

I would never ever pay a RE Agent 3% to sell my house….never mind 5%

$18K to $30K to sell a house….are people insane. Get the average person on this blog to calculate how long it takes them to actually save – in the bank – between $18 and $30K

Years !

and they throw it away in seconds to a REA who sells your house in 2 weeks. (or 2 days). Puts out a few adds, has an open house or two and bingo, hits the jackpot.

#30 Chickenlittle on 07.04.13 at 7:36 pm

I have never understood why one week the media says that housing is going up, then down, then up again, then down. One month prices are down by some percentage, then up again the next month.

There always seems to be some kind of miraculous recovery when it comes to RE.

I have ALWAYS been skeptical of these reports, even before I started reading Garth.

#31 Daisy Mae on 07.04.13 at 7:37 pm

“That any of this should surprise you would be, well, a surprise. The economy has waned, household debt’s increased and now mortgage rates have swollen…”

*****************

And nary a word from Harper and Flaherty….

#32 Old Man on 07.04.13 at 7:39 pm

The photo on this page is a given, as some old lady is at the library surfing the net, and gets upset, so goes into her purse for her liquid paper eraser to blot out the F word on the screen.

#33 GTA Engineer on 07.04.13 at 7:40 pm

Garth,

Confused about your second point. You state “Resales were higher than a year ago” but then also “this June was … the worst June since 2008”. These two point don’t jive – unless you mean that June is worst for total overall sales (new+resale) but it’s better than last June for resales alone. Is that the correct interpretation?

#34 Joe Average on 07.04.13 at 7:49 pm

Yep, I’m from Vancouver….I stopped watching local GlobalTV about a year ago. Same for Vancouver Sun and Province. Media has been manipulated for years by RE boards across the country and as Gath said they are good at it. Feels like communism at times….I know. I grew up under communism.

#35 Bill Gable on 07.04.13 at 7:49 pm

The Globe made it sound just rosy in the GTA. “Soft Landing”, “Crisis, what Crisis” was the theme of the tripe being pumped out as “news”.

Your great post today Garth, once again puts the boots to the horde of lying swine that make a living getting people to go debt crazy.

I will say it again. *Sorry, Garth = MORT GAGE is French for Death Contract.

GET IT?

#36 Condo Chris on 07.04.13 at 7:51 pm

Don’t feel bad for the Realtors.. A market “crash” just gives us more to sell…

#37 Smoking Man on 07.04.13 at 7:51 pm

Remember way back when, when I introduced keys me. Org

And you guys downloaded it like you where ordering take out food, next day I called you all idiots cause it could have had a sleeper program that would download child porn on your computer with out you knowing.

Well I would not do that… But there is a guy named Luke, always in the face of the machine, this is what happend to him today.

That’s how the machine is going to get you.. If you step out of line politically

http://www.prisonplanet.com/attempted-setup-of-luke-rudkowski.html

Smoking man always ahead of the curve..

#38 Smoking Man on 07.04.13 at 7:55 pm

I’m an idiot, my last post was a community warning, I thought garth just made it vanish, I thought garth flipping the bird to harpoo was fake, and he was part of the machine…

Duh on my part forgot to hit the submission button…

I got stop doing this… My brain is getting over loaded

#39 Pepper Sanchez-Gamboa on 07.04.13 at 8:01 pm

Looking at home prices here in Vancouver, I can’t understand how people can afford to get by even if the prices correct 30%. For the price of a tiny one bedroom in Vancouver I can get a large property and modest house back home in Panama. For this reason, I will make my money here but spend it there. I have no other option in reality. Boomers would be well advised to move away and live in abundance rather than suffering through the cost of living here.

#40 T.O. & GTA bidding wars debunked July 04 on 07.04.13 at 8:05 pm

http://recharts.blogspot.ca/2013/07/gta-condos-damn-lies-july04.html

The sales for SFH in Toronto looked almost dead today. What a heck is going on?
http://recharts.blogspot.ca/2013/07/to-bidding-wars-debunked-july-04.html

http://recharts.blogspot.ca/2013/07/gta-bidding-wars-debunked-july-04.html

#41 Westernman on 07.04.13 at 8:10 pm

# 19,
No, it’s not that it’s insulated – it’s because Regina ( an Sask, as a whole ) doesn’t matter and nobody cares.
I’ve explained this to you before …. you must be from Sask. – you can’t be taught…

#42 JS on 07.04.13 at 8:14 pm

everyone i have an interesting question. we have a banker who is trying to get us to sign up for a 30 year amortization but set it up to pay the monthly payment as if it was a 25 year amortization. i assume this will place us with more overall interest but wouldn’t the higher payment offset that? what would you do?

#43 AnotherOldWrinkleyCrinkley on 07.04.13 at 8:15 pm

Hi fellow Bloggers, Doggers and Late night Snoggers,
and I dare not forget the the Smokers, Jokers and Midnight Tokers.
I have been reading this blog for quite some time and last year I decided to retire, sell the Sauga Mansion, invest the money and rent one of the new shiny Condo’s, as Garth suggested.

One year later, the investments as Garth proposed pay 1.75 times the Monthly rent which is just shy of TWO Large. Here comes the kicker with reference to today’s
story. The owner has listed the unit after saying he did not want to sell for 5-8 years. the listing agent called today wanting to show the unit at “09:00” am on Saturday Morning. Needless to say I objected, and who in their right mind wants people tramping through their place at a time when you are not exactly your best…

After a few heated words we agreed on a later time more appropriate. The main story here is the “Desperation” in his voice to get access to the unit.
He went on about the need to sell the unit etc. etc.
Yes indeed folks you could honestly almost smell the “Desperation”

As someone once sang..”The times they are a changin”

#44 father on 07.04.13 at 8:17 pm

#39
maybe buyers r eventually drying up

#45 Serge on 07.04.13 at 8:25 pm

Very strange …I’ve subscribed to the ‘Daily GTA Sold Listings From Zoocasa’ and I receive daily email with sold listings .I counted listings sold in June. It is only 7537 records.

#46 Mt pleasent on 07.04.13 at 8:31 pm

A few years ago I would ride my bike through west Vancouver and I would see tons of for sale signs. I thought the smart money is getting out of real estate.
Today I see lots of for rent signs.

#47 Smoking Man on 07.04.13 at 8:45 pm

https://sites.google.com/site/torontorealestatecharts/HistoricalPrices

Don’t wanna mess up anyone’s dream of ownership one day, but I’m like that little annoying voice in your head just saying it like I see it.. Some people see dead people, I see fear and greed in charts.

I have made over 300k last week playing forex, not showing my results, or encouraging anyone to try this its very dangerous, . Don’t try it without years of chart reading.

The other day Herb who is probably on the fast track to dementia Chirped my call we need a good spike before correction in real estate, he thought I was nuts.

The above link shows what happened in Canada between 1985 and 1989 look at chart, it tanked because it spiked huge and people in mass wanted to harvest profit.

But I’m the village idiot, the guy who sees tide going out and running for higher ground.

I m the smartest man in the world get use to it… I been to the other side, I know shit…..

Like garth it’s free…..

#48 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 07.04.13 at 8:45 pm

@#42 WrinkleyCrinkley
Jayzus! I snarfed alcohol out my nose reading your comment.
a schnozz enema as it were.
Hilarious!

#49 The manipulators — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate | The Affluent Boomer on 07.04.13 at 8:48 pm

[…] via The manipulators — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estat…. […]

#50 Canadian Watchdog on 07.04.13 at 8:48 pm

Meh, TREB frankenumbers is old news. Here's the latest regarding real inventory.

Starting in February CREA added a new footnote in its monthly report under new listings that shows items marked with “‡” include member and non-member data. Quebec is the only province labeled. What this means is listings from MLS members (the boards) excludes listings from non-member sites like comfree, property guys, FSBO, etc.

How many FSBOs could there be?

ForSaleDirect.ca –  103

Property Guys –  1400+ (GTA)

ComFree –  500

Search Realty – More here

PropertySold.ca – More here

ByOwnerSale.ca – More here

FeeSale.ca – More here

RealListings.ca – More here

I can't keep count. Google them youself.

And so the statistical cat and mouse game continues…

#51 Ford Prefect on 07.04.13 at 8:49 pm

Same here in Comox Valley, Vancouver Island. Months of inventory is given as around 6 but actual is closer to 13. How do I know? I generated my own inventory figures. I have taken the real estate board’s numbers as given, but as most of us know they tend to be exaggerated. So the 13 months is very conservative – could be as high as 15.

#52 Joe on 07.04.13 at 8:56 pm

Goody too shoes that’s two funny.
Smoking Man you are so encouraging, you embrace all things that matter, like integrity.
You are a great testament to a corrupt system.
Steal lie doesn’t matter, everyman for himself.
Darwinian concept fabricated to ease consciences usually replaced with drugs or alcohol.
You must be very proud of those sitting in prisons, if your lucky your kids may end up there, think of the bragging rights.
Daddy’s little criminals.
Not buying it.

#53 Saint Herb on 07.04.13 at 8:59 pm

Something is happening, because today, the hot water repair man I called talked to me 1 hour about how the housing market is going to crash and he is currently renting and waiting to buy. I didn’t bring it up, I don’t ever talk about this because, when I’ve mentioned this sort of thing in the past I would get criticized.
Cousin in Maple who owns 3 houses got mad at me about 8 months ago when I told him I sold and was renting because I thought the market would correct. He said Maple (Toronto GTA) was different and prices wouldn’t go down.
At the last get together I even suggested that he rent me one of his houses because I was so hard up for a place to live. He said “no” because he thought I was to cheap and would not pay him.
My wife hates Garth, but I think he has done more good than bad for my finances to date.
[email protected] is now calling me because she thinks I need to do something better with my money. She is right, but I know that she doesn’t know anything better.

#54 retired Boomer - WI on 07.04.13 at 9:06 pm

Statistics CAN and WILL be manipulated. People may, or may NOT be factual. Selling RE or, anything else the seller will always make the best use of the statistics at his disposal. That’s merely the game.

There are five honest service men I know:” What, where, why, when, and how.”

Measure anything you are told, read, or hear by these to ferret out ‘the agenda’ and you will probably better evaluate the presentation. Still, you will not win them all, but improve your score at truth-getting.

So, let me understand RE. Jobs are on the wane, interest rates are heading higher. The longest you can protect a rate on a 30 yr mortgage is 10 years, prices are at -or near an all time high? (OK, we might assume 10% off in some hoods).

Who in their right mind would buy under these criteria? If buyers wait a mere 60 days, prices will break. Don’t you want to catch a break? That certainly will not be the bottom, but a journey towards that end. Desperate sellers will no desperate acts when the “herd” moves against them.

I “herd” it through the grapevine.

#55 happy on 07.04.13 at 9:07 pm

Even if I couldn’t read English I would come to this blog to see the daily pic. Knowing to read sweetens the deal.

On another note, for some reason people who I thought were intelligent enough to do their homework are buying houses/condos in Toronto. Falling in love with real estate…. a big mistake.

#56 raisemyrent on 07.04.13 at 9:11 pm

Stop asking Garth for local updates!
Stop holding on to the idea that your area is somehow “different”! That’s one of the “paradigms” of a textbook asset bubble; google it.
Stop waiting for the “right time” to buy. Heck, you’re not buying; you’re financing. You’re getting a fixed loan, generating interesting over a period that you’re instinctively unable to grasp, on an asset that fluctuates out of your control. In other words, you’re taking a risk. Stop calling it an investment.
Take a deep breath, and take the bag of cash you’re holding and put it somewhere else; somewhere it can really work for you. Do it right for a while, and maybe in a few years you can truly buy/own a place.

#57 mikef on 07.04.13 at 9:12 pm

Chocolate rations increased to 20 grams

#58 Mikey the Realtor on 07.04.13 at 9:14 pm

#14 Alex K on 07.04.13 at 6:57 pm

I only concern myself with what I do and what I have control over, Alex aka AK.

Thanks remembering my tennis game, it has been going very well, in fact I’ve noticed a considerable amount of improvement over the last several weeks, business has been great and everything else in life just follows.

Eventually you’ll move out of your mom’s basement, most likely involuntarily but none the less I will be there to help you get setup with your new digs.

#59 AK on 07.04.13 at 9:16 pm

Stop complaining and Happy Canada Day

#60 Fodork on 07.04.13 at 9:16 pm

Thornhill is still smoking. Most sales are HAM who are buying primary residence. I rent there. Sfh sale prices have gone up another 40k-60k over the past 6 months in my neighborhood.
Here is an example:
http://www.torontomls.net/PublicWeb/CL_CF.asp?link_no=49688419.206100&t=l&fm=F
(search for Thomas Henry Rd)

#61 Coho on 07.04.13 at 9:18 pm

Happy Independence Day to our American friends.

I’m sure many of you are not celebrating in a true sense, rather going through the motions with a heavy heart. It’s sad that the land of the free and home of the brave has become the land of watched and home of the suspects.

You aren’t the only ones. The people behind world affairs have determined that regular hard working people throughout the world are not to be trusted. As goes America, so goes the world. The privileges we were granted came about by way of your Bill of Rights. They had a ripple effect of which citizens in many other countries have benefitted for a century or two.

Now things are quickly reverting to the usual situation throughout history where people are viewed as a herd of cattle to graze behind fences, to be milked in stalls, and to be slaughtered when the chess masters have moved their pieces in a way which demand it.

What kind of world are we going to retire into? Worse yet, what about the generations coming behind? How safe are we going to feel under tyranny. For those of us which have amassed a tidy sum, how safe is our wealth when basic human rights are stripped away in the name of safety and security. Who will keep us safe from our own oppressors? This is where we are headed.

Sadly the brief period our where the people were treated as law abiding individuals has degenerated into us being treated as a suspect herd where one size fits all. We’re cows to be milked and sheep to be sheered. This is painfully apparent by the misinformation, propaganda and outright lies being fed to the people daily in order to mislead them.

#62 The Prophet Elijah on 07.04.13 at 9:19 pm

Garth what do you think of my hypothesis that inflation will rise dramatically as interest rates go up?

#63 KommyKim on 07.04.13 at 9:24 pm

RE: #42 JS on 07.04.13 at 8:14 pm
we have a banker who is trying to get us to sign up for a 30 year amortization but set it up to pay the monthly payment as if it was a 25 year amortization.

I think that would make it like a 25 year amortization with the option of lowering the monthly payments in the future so it becomes a sub-30 year amortization if you needed to.

#64 AK on 07.04.13 at 9:26 pm

#58 Mikey the Realtor on 07.04.13 at 9:14 pm
#14 Alex K on 07.04.13 at 6:57 pm

“I only concern myself with what I do and what I have control over, Alex aka AK.

Thanks remembering my tennis game, it has been going very well, in fact I’ve noticed a considerable amount of improvement over the last several weeks, business has been great and everything else in life just follows.

Eventually you’ll move out of your mom’s basement, most likely involuntarily but none the less I will be there to help you get setup with your new digs.”
——————————————————————–
Hey Mikey,

I am really surprised at you. Fisrt I was DR. Wayne and now I am Alex K ?

Hey Alex K,

Could you kindly explain to Mikey that we are not the same person. The poor guy has had a rough day today, pounding the pavement et all.

#65 Ahead of the Curve on 07.04.13 at 9:28 pm

What else is new? Toronto Real Estate Board is notorious for making false claims and statements. Real estate agents pick and choose which reports they want in order to push the sale through.

Guys, there are over 30,000 registered real estate agents with the Toronto board. Regardless of which numbers you subscribe, fact is in June about 6,000 properties changed hands (which was a good month)…

Let’s do some quick math… assuming each realtor only made 1 sale, that leaves about 24,000 realtors going desperate.

Desperate people, do desperate things!

#66 Alex K on 07.04.13 at 9:37 pm

#58 Mikey the realtor,
what happened to that listing I asked you about?
BTW, what time did you come by on Monday to pick up the empties and you’re dense _ AK is a different person, run along now

#67 Suede on 07.04.13 at 9:37 pm

#18 Disturban Behavious

Why buy a condo in Pitt Meadows where Canucks owners have blueberry farms when you can rent it for cheaper. Pitt Meadows is not on the top 10 for anyone to live for the suburbs of Vancouver so don’t plan on flipping anything there for a profit in the next decade.

#68 Victor V on 07.04.13 at 9:38 pm

PRICE DROP #5 – 130 Glen Road – ROSEDALE

http://themashcanada.blogspot.ca/2013/07/price-drop-5-130-glen-road-rosedale.html

This house has been for sale since January.

It is 4+1 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms and it sits on a a 28.42 x 128 foot lot.

It could be great but it needs a LOT of work.

It was priced at $1,799,000. Sure, it needs $400,000 in work but it would still be WAY less than the house down the street at 116 Glen Road. Not sure that is saying much though since that house was priced two times higher than what it should have been.

Some readers think this house is on too busy of a stretch of Glen but that doesn’t really bother me. It could be a good house with a nice backyard (though not huge) and a garage off a laneway.

But the house didn’t sell and the price was dropped to $1,749,000 in March.

Still no sale so the price was dropped to $1,739,000 in mid-April.

Again, no sale and the price was dropped a couple of weeks later to $1,699,000.

Then in May, the price was dropped again to $1,649,000.

And now…….

The new price is $1,599,000.

#69 Smoking Man on 07.04.13 at 9:40 pm

#61 Coho on 07.04.13 at 9:18 pm

Very true and insightful post, good news the machine will turn on it self, it has every angle covered, it watches us, studies us, influence us… We can’t beat it, but fortunately for the herd, the machine is made up of men, and they are flawed, power consumes every plan they hatch, but they have human egos they will in fight, and will self destruct.

The Herd will realize true wealth is the thy labour and not paper, as they push more on food stamps, and the Herd barters their labour with each other, machine will lose its cut…infighting and treachery will become common place in the palace of power, and a new good world will hatch momentarily for the good of all man…

Then a smoking man will walk in and start the game again..

That’s what I think

#70 Condo lies on 07.04.13 at 9:42 pm

see how they manipulate the stats by relisting the properties. When they declare them sold you actually see just the last numbers. In fact the listing might have been reduced and might have been on the market for longer than your RE agent tells you …

https://imageshack.us/a/img198/6161/izhv.jpg

#71 Devore on 07.04.13 at 9:45 pm

#1 Out Of Work Realtors

I feel bad for the good realtors out there. Yes there are some good realtors and you are seeing both good and bad realtors hurting real bad.

Good realtors are doing fine. That’s why they are good.

No need to feel sorry for them either, it was their own career choice. In a fickle, commission driven field, you gotta have a plan B.

#72 taxman on 07.04.13 at 9:45 pm

Garth you mentioned sales for $999K… do you have references or proof of this?

Everything on this blog is fiction. You must be new here. — Garth

#73 Canadian Watchdog on 07.04.13 at 9:58 pm

As expected…  Toronto Reviews Bid to Become Yuan Currency Trading Hub

Canada’s banks are considering a plan to make Toronto the first North American trading hub for China’s yuan, joining a global race for a share of trading in the currency of the world’s second-largest economy.

Some of Canada’s largest banks, insurance companies and pension funds met with government representatives and the Bank of Canada in Toronto on June 21 to discuss establishing a yuan trading hub, according to the Toronto Financial Services Alliance, an industry group that set up the meeting. Representatives of Chinese banks also attended the meeting, the group said, declining to name them.

“There’s been expressions of interest from some companies,” said Janet Ecker, president of the finance group, who attended the meeting. “We’ve seen what’s happened in London and Singapore and Hong Kong.”

The moves to set up a trading hub in Canada come as an organization representing Frankfurt’s financial industry predicts the European Central Bank is nearing a deal with China that will help the German financial center become a European yuan trading hub.

"We're all going to have to give up a little bit of our sovereignty, in order to make the world work." — Former PM Paul Martin

#74 Peter Warner on 07.04.13 at 10:06 pm

First !

#75 Devore on 07.04.13 at 10:06 pm

#23 Renting in Vic

If the numbers counted 350 sales last year that didn’t complete – wouldn’t that have made things look worse not better?

The revised number is smaller, so you’re comparing against a smaller number, so things look better.

Unless you’re using realtor math, where down is up and less is more.

#76 Herb on 07.04.13 at 10:19 pm

#47 SM,

er, SM, it wasn’t me that “chirped” your RE call. In case you hadn’t noticed, I’ve been ignoring your comments, except when something really stupid needs a put-down.

#77 detalumis on 07.04.13 at 10:25 pm

#17 Oakville is not homogenous. North of the QEW is typical indistinguishable suburbs. I live in the south in tear-down country on the 75 and 80 foot frontage lots with mature trees. The most popular houses are the plain bungalows they get snapped up for land-value much faster than ones that have a mini Mansion built already. The house across the street just sold this weekend in 2 days in a bidding war and the sign wasn’t even stuck on the lawn. People don’t go in they just walk around the backyard with their architect. I haven’t seen any downturn yet.

#78 Smartalox on 07.04.13 at 10:33 pm

@ Canadian watchdog #50,

You raise an excellent point about the large number of homes for sale that are not listed through MLS. Maybe someone can supply some data from the land registry office so that we can get an estimate of the number of non-MLS sales out there, as a percentage of the total.

#79 Devore on 07.04.13 at 10:36 pm

#42 JS

Accelerated payments means you will pay less interest overall, however 25 years is nothing to write home about. Aggressive mortgage retirement is under 10 years, which you probably can’t do if you bought the average million dollar house.

I don’t know why a bank would push this. Normally they advertise this feature on open mortgages, to sucker in people who just end up making minimum payments and think skip-a-payment is a great idea. Maybe they hope you will quickly feel the pinch in your household budget and revert to the contractual 30 year slog.

Speaking of minimum payments, just noticed my Visa statement says minimum payments will pay off the current balance in 35 years. Goooo consumer debt!

#80 screwed on 07.04.13 at 10:42 pm

Cheap money is here to stay longer. Draghi is never raising rates. Carney now at the BOE is talking the Pound kapputt. What will Stephen Poloz say that we don’t already know?
They (CBs) can’t raise rates. The charter banks might try a number on their own but it would be short lived. Bonds are moderating at this level before the next leg down. Money is becoming worth less and less ….

#81 eddy on 07.04.13 at 10:51 pm

“Careful what you believe”

Presently on MLS there is ONE, yes ONE bungalow for sale in Leaside ,it’s a tear down, just shy of one million dollars, you know Leaside, the place that’s full of bungalows

#82 Ronaldo on 07.04.13 at 11:01 pm

#10 Mwerk –

”Let’s not forget Calgary with now ‘renewed’ real estate market due to some flooded properties…”

Won’t likely have any more affect than the Okanagan Mountain Fire had in 2003 to housing prices in Kelowna where around 300 homes were destroyed. This was easily absorbed by the builders.

#83 Kurdt on 07.04.13 at 11:04 pm

If you scroll past Smoking Man’s diatribes in a hurry, or are sick of his feeble attempts at ENCRYPSHUN, or in general, just wish to avoid his inanity, here’s a nifty TamperMonkey (Chrome) script that hides all comments by him:

http://userscripts.org/scripts/show/172636

Feel free to update it if he changes his moniker, or add other people to the list and watch the comments list shrink :)

As an example, after running it on this page, you should see comment #36 by Condo Chris, followed immediately by #39 Pepper Sanchez-Gamboa, since Smoking Man’s vapidly illiterate rantings in comments #37 and #38 have been hidden by the script.

#84 Spiltbongwater on 07.04.13 at 11:16 pm

Does anyone know if the increase in private sales reflects lower sales volumes by the real estate boards?

#85 shocked and appalled on 07.04.13 at 11:17 pm

#15 Property Accountant
They waited 2 years, paid 542K with upgrades, 400K mortgage. Moved in last weekend. Both gross income is 110K.
…………………..

How were they even approved for that mortgage based on their income? After taxes, all of their money is going to mortgage payments…

#86 Iceboat Terrance stats revisited- A sinking boat on 07.04.13 at 11:25 pm

This group of buildings has excessive inventory

http://recharts.blogspot.de/2013/07/the-sinking-boat-iceboat-terrace-might.html

#87 Donald Trump on 07.04.13 at 11:32 pm

Hello stupid Canadians(redundant)

What you morons don’t understands is that slimeball professions that act as the “5th pillar”.

Do you seriously think the Gov’t would interfere with groups that can pump the economic indicators, create inflation and keep the sheeple in false sense of hope/security?

Duhhhh

#88 Still wondering on 07.04.13 at 11:35 pm

Everything is still ducky according to the CBC tonight…

http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/Canada/ID/2395786414/

#89 Tony on 07.04.13 at 11:47 pm

Re: #26 Peter on 07.04.13 at 7:28 pm

Toronto properties are sitting on the market for years. Meanwhile prices keep on falling every month. So if you’re very lucky you might get a lowball offer say 25 percent below asking. You best take whatever you can get keeping in mind soon the Toronto market will be down 40 percent from the peak.

http://guava.ca/

#90 Retired Boomer - WI on 07.05.13 at 12:15 am

#61 Coho

Yes, it’s true. We are watched, our e mails monitored, our phones reviewed. Cameras are more populous in open spaces (cue Great Britain) and who knows what else?

Am I concerned? Not much, I have little to hide, and aside from a cocktail, or many, and the occasional whacky weed indulgence, I really don’t give much of a Shiite.

Smoking man has it correct, the machine will fall over itself, and fail when more interrelated renting & bartering of services takes place cutting the machine out of its “take.” Happening now in this mostly rural area where I live. The vast majority of people earn a modest living.

Sadly, the media, the social web sites have garnered too much attention of the herd and further reduced civic awareness of local regional, and national affairs. We are free to vote, or not. Unlike Australia we do not fine our populace for NOT voting, though that might be a good thought for change. People are too harried, and hurried to care these days. I suspect Canada suffers the same disease with regard to civic engagement, and knowledge.

We do not know the extent of the monies being spent for “homeland security,” and the various spy agencies covert budgets. All empires have eventually failed, usually on bloated military budgets, we are just slated to be next that’s all. Eisenhower stated it well in his 1961 farewell address citing the military -industrial-congressional complex. Though he deleted the congressional part in his speech, it was apparent, and still is.

#91 Realist on 07.05.13 at 12:21 am

Just a few comments. It is puzzling how people are able to get enough money together to buy houses for 500K plus which is normal in most cities. I did not think the average salary in Canada would warrant affordability at this price without having some disposable income remaining once all bills are paid monthly. Also, with work gaps in ones working career, plus divorce, plus sickness, plus emergencies can make extreme challenges if not everything is clicking to make payments. This is very normal as this happens at least once in one’s life. I must of missed a few math courses in University. That being said, I wonder about some of the flood victims in Calgary with talking to a friend whereby some lots were going for 650k around 2007 in some of the higher end neighborhoods. Some of these lots are now down in the Hudson Bay. I wonder what price these houses will get with no backyard going forward? Also, in AB the talk is getting more frequent on who is going to pay for my flood damaged house. The sustainability fund was at 17 billion in 2009 and apparently it is now at zero without a drop of flood water. Also, 5.1 billion dollar deficit from last budget. Interesting times in AB, also the worst I seen our roads in 20 years. Times were challenging in the early 90’s and roads were “way” better then than now. I could go on and on but anyways just some views.

#92 saltpony on 07.05.13 at 12:26 am

This is for JS #42:

Use a mortgage payment calculator to see the difference in the amount of interest paid:

$100,000 @ 3% amort over 30 yrs = $51,418 in interest only. (monthly payment: $420.60)
$100,000 @ 3% amort over 25 yrs = $41,973 in interest only. (monthly payment: $473.25)

They are trying to save you money; $9445 is what you would save if you paid $52.65 extra each month using the above example amortized from 30 to 25 yrs.

Really you would just be making extra cash payments on top of your mortgage payment. Every dollar over and above your mortgage payment is a dollar you don’t pay interest on.

The question really is can you do better things with that money the [email protected] is asking you to put on your mortgage? The answer is yes. You should invest that $52.65 where you could get a better return than 3%. And that is the tricky part…. gold? mutual funds? stocks? EFTs? bonds? index funds? [email protected]’s portfolio?

Old school thinking is pay off your mortgage asap, and you will have a nice sturdy house to help pay for everything when you are old. This blog says it’s all MONEY. And you’re gonna needs lots of it for when you are old and the house isn’t gonna become an ATM.

Put your money where it will grant you the greatest returns. And leave sentiment out of it. Good luck :)

#93 Ronaldo on 07.05.13 at 12:28 am

#36 Condo Chris -”Don’t feel bad for the Realtors.. A market “crash” just gives us more to sell…”

To whom? Like the realtors in the U.S. after their markets crashed. Not like there was a stampede of people buying was there for the past several years. Time to look for a real job. I hear Timmies is hiring.

#94 JimH on 07.05.13 at 12:33 am

#61 Coho

Are you out on a ‘day pass’, or did you go and chew through your restraints again?

#95 Jon on 07.05.13 at 12:49 am

I only know two realtors in vancouver and i know some of the properties they rent. Both suggested market was weaker and stated it was a buyers market now and i should buy an investment propert. However what they didnt tell me was each was selling a rental unit they owned. Hmmmmm

#96 JimH on 07.05.13 at 12:53 am

#1 Out Of Work Realtors
“I feel bad for the good realtors out there. Yes there are some good realtors and you are seeing both good and bad realtors hurting real bad. Many haven’t had a sale in almost a year. As you can simple see on greaterfool that many realtors are simply out of work and don’t even have a single listing. Like I said I feel bad for those realtors that look out for the best interests of their clients. It looks like a long hard housing crash in Toronto and Vancouver.”
===================================

I agree. There will be hard times ahead for many. But, you know that the really good realtors, (yes, I agree; there are some!) will come through this Canadian RE unraveling just fine. They’ve taken note of the fluctuations in past markets and have prepared for this downturn and beyond.
I recently had occasion to talk to several long term real estate pros in southern Arizona, who survived the last 6 years through prudent financial planning. They are relieved that the US downturn actually has helped them by shaking out the frauds an the rock-star charlatans and the fly-by-nights who jumped on the RE bubble bandwagon.
At this point, for the most part, only the genuine, ethical, truly professional realtors remain, and they are doing very well indeed.

#97 will on 07.05.13 at 1:14 am

Too many crazy conflicting numbers just mean manipulation/disinformation. Thanks Garth. BTW, still collecting my preferred share dividends.

-w

#98 Johnny D on 07.05.13 at 2:25 am

@#36 Condo Chris on 07.04.13 at 7:51 pm
Don’t feel bad for the Realtors.. A market “crash” just gives us more to sell…

—————————————————————————

You just made me feel even worse for Realtors. See little buddy, in a crash people also don’t buy houses either, hence the term “market crash”. What you’re referring to where people buy houses that are put up for sale is called a healthy market. That you don’t know the difference between the two is a little scary.

#99 Bailing in BC on 07.05.13 at 2:27 am

Updated Squamish Data for those following the Squamish BC market

http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Squamish-Data?pid=3132#pid3132

#100 Dean Mason on 07.05.13 at 3:41 am

To #73 Canadian Watchdog

Paul Martin’s company gave up sovereignty to avoid paying income taxes to Canada.He is the last credible person on this earth.

#101 Gary M on 07.05.13 at 4:03 am

Well done, Garth. Now if you can apply that same degree of reasonable skepticism to official U.S. data (GDP, employment, CPI, et al.)…

#102 Observer on 07.05.13 at 4:13 am

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/06/05/canada-debt-poll-2013/

Half of Canadians with debt say their debt level is the same or higher than it was a year ago, according to a new poll.

The survey for CIBC which revealed that 71% of Canadians carry some for of debt, showed that 21% say their debts have increased in the last 12 months; another 28% say their debt level has stayed the same, despite a prior CIBC poll where respondents indicated that debt repayment was a priority in 2013.

The number one reason cited for not paying down debt was not having the money to do so (29%).

#103 Buy? Curious? on 07.05.13 at 4:42 am

Hey Garth! These people who work at Real Estate Boards, Brokerages and Banks must really hate you the more you become famous for having such a fantastic blog! You’re constantly exposing them as perverts to the financial system. You know what? I’ve got an idea! I’m going call up one of these places, say, The Toronto Real Estate Board, and ask them a few probing questions, tell them I’m part of the Garth Turner Fabulous Friends aka. Blog Dawgs, them see what they have to say for themselves.

YOLO.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADAYy9uuIDw

#104 Smoking Man on 07.05.13 at 6:24 am

#83 Kurdt on 07.04.13 at 11:04 pm

Ha, let’s run a script, dangerous….. My earlier post.

But feel free, thousands come on here every day to read my nonsense, it’s cheap entertainment.

Hell I do this for free and feel pressure to come up with something crazy every day

But then again can easily understand why teachers, basement dwellers, end of the worlders would want to skip..

#105 Smoking Man on 07.05.13 at 6:38 am

#83 Kurdt on 07.04.13 at 11:04 pm

Too funny, typical Canadian, rather than debate me like a man, you prefer to hide under a rock. It’s the Canadian way..

Woss, to bad you won’t see this… Lmao

#106 unbalanced on 07.05.13 at 6:54 am

To # 83 Kurdt. Perfect link. Thanks from the bottom of my heart.

#107 T.O. Bubble Boy on 07.05.13 at 7:25 am

@ #81 eddy on 07.04.13 at 10:51 pm
“Careful what you believe”

Presently on MLS there is ONE, yes ONE bungalow for sale in Leaside ,it’s a tear down, just shy of one million dollars, you know Leaside, the place that’s full of bungalows
—————-

You must have missed the past 5-10 years…. Leaside *was* the place that was full of bungalows, but they’ve all been sold for $800k-$1M, torn down, and re-built as $1.5M-$2M McMansions.

I actually suspect that trend will end – not just because there aren’t many bungalows left, but also because the market for $2M houses is not infinite. Much like Vancouver, offshore money has created a perception of some kind of permanent demand for homes priced 3x higher than local incomes would be able to support.

#108 fancy_pants on 07.05.13 at 8:20 am

Realturds make their money on sales/volumes more so than price; why would they care if the market is going up or down?

I would think they would be encouraging fear and take advantage of a mass sell off rather than keep prices bloated and have the volumes fall as they are.

If there is any consolation here, it may be that these RE brokerages are hurting the bottom line for themselves and their minions the most when pumping out these shady stats.

#109 Psychologist on 07.05.13 at 8:23 am

MSM continues talking about Carney even if he left for the Bank of England…not talking about the new Poloz at all…hmmm…what could that mean?

#110 One Missed Call ... on 07.05.13 at 8:27 am

It’s is amazing that despite the number of times this manipulation has been discussed on this blog (and others), no major news agency has touched it – at least not to my knowledge.

When something like this is happening, one would hope that one of the large news reporting agencies would actually do some investigative journalism and print/publish an expose.

“…And when you trust your television What you get is what you got ‘Cause when they own the information Oh, they can bend it all they want…” John Mayer

#111 Nick on 07.05.13 at 8:29 am

#71 Devore

How does one define a good realtor?

Do good realtors not lie?

#112 Devil's Advocate Condo Renter on 07.05.13 at 8:33 am

Response to #135 Frank le Skank on 07.04.13 at 4:05 pm (Yesterday’s Post)
Try raising a family in a 600 square foot box and you will know what a lifestyle shift is like. Now imagine if you’re in the above situation and because of oversupply and price decreases your condo becomes illiquid. You’re financing for way more than you could rent or buy and there’s not even enough room to fit a full size couch/table/bed. At this point you may want to stay away from the balcony.
___________________________________________

You clearly missed my point – There is a large segment of the population that is happy to own and live in a Condo. Families just don’t pop up out of nowhere…It takes at a minimum 9 months to deliver one of your own even if its accidental. If you are adopting a child, then some thought goes into this process in most instances. My point being – that you can plan for these things and if having a family is in your sights and you are living in a 600 sq ft box then maybe you can plan to move into a bigger unit or sell and rent a detached home. Besides 600 sq ft is plenty for a couple and a baby. I’m living proof of that. We are in a 610 sq. foot unit and have a baby – and it has been fantastic! Mom gets to spend quality time with her baby and doesn’t have to worry about yard upkeep – gardening, etc…The important part is that she is spending time with her baby. Besides, living in 610 sq feet also prevents you from buying “stuff” as you don’t have any room for it anyways…instead you can spend the money you saved from not buying “stuff” on taking a quality road trip or vacation with your young family.

Bringing this all back to my original point – which you clearly missed – a drop in price will not have an impact on a boomer or a young professional because they are living a lifestyle that they enjoy and it is this lifestyle that society is shifting towards. Why spend thousands on a riding lawnmower, gas and time to cut a lawn – when you could be taking a family trip to Boston and walking around Boston common for the price you pay to ride in circles cutting your lawn.

#113 JS on 07.05.13 at 8:39 am

thanks everyone for the note, it sounds like there little concern about the 30 vs the 25, BUT take the extra and invest.

#114 Steven on 07.05.13 at 8:45 am

Since you have established that realtors manipulate the market by manipulating information you will have to conceed that other markets are infact manipulated.
It is just like the fall of the 3 towers at the world trade center on 911. If one was wired for demolition (building 7) then they were all wired for demolition. Every thing else was a distraction to justify the events that followed.
The precious metals prices are being trashed because those that control the markets and trading desire it.
Paper prices are falling in the face of high demand for physical. This is not a unmanipulated market.

Why are gold investors unhinged nuts? — Garth

#115 AK on 07.05.13 at 8:57 am

#79 Dean Mason on 07.03.13 at 1:30 am
“I read from an disclosed source that July-5-2013 U.S. jobs report is coming in weak as June is typically a slow month with summer variances.
It could come in at 95,000 to 115,000.If this is true watch out on Friday”.
——————————————————————–
Wow. That is quite the “Source” that you have there, Einstein. LMFAO..

I feel sorry for the poor people you are advising.

#116 Standard Deviation on 07.05.13 at 8:59 am

A couple of years back our parliament passed a bill that stated “Newspapers no longer have to tell the truth”. Yep, thats what they did. So now if we do not look at anything and everything the media says as questionable, let alone the institutions they report from then we too are greater fools.

#117 Herb on 07.05.13 at 9:06 am

#104 SM

“… thousands come on here every day to read my nonsense …”

To read you, SM? To read YOU?????????

#118 sciencemonkey on 07.05.13 at 9:12 am

Smoking Man, I really appreciate the daily reminder of how the world works. I’m the goody goody type that shies away from those kinds of realities, so I need to be reminded. I think a good example is the highway driving phenomenon, where most people are goody goodies who follow the rules and wait in the long line up for an exit, except for some smoking men who cut in at the front of the line. I’m curious, why do you educate the herd on this blog?

I want to address Craig’s #136 post from yesterday about the realities of renting. I agree, renting is less than ideal. Sometimes I get ants, and see the odd house centipede. One time it took a week for the hot water heater to get fixed. I had to call the landlord numerous times to get the heat turned up, because apparently another apartment subsequently gets too hot (no individual apartment control for heat in my walkup). I don’t have central AC, and my windows suck, so I had to buy more expensive and inefficient portable ACs.

Some horrible things that I’ve been lucky enough to avoid include noise pollution from fat people stomping above you or LOUD children living across from you, and the bed bugs that can be found throughout Toronto.

Regarding the money, again I agree. I rent for $1300 a month, which includes everything except electricity. I’m just filled with happiness that I’m giving $15600 a year to a landlord that was around to start buying real estate when it was a good deal. On the other hand, I’m not paying tax, condo fees, water fees, and energy bills.

I’d love to buy a small house, but it’s simply unaffordable. Craig, what do you recommend I do? It’s not the easiest thing to find jobs in convenient places. My workplace, which I really enjoy working at, was founded in Markham by baby boomers who already have houses. I’m in a specialized field so finding work elsewhere is tough. My girlfriend works in Toronto. Our choices are rent in North York, or buy something we can’t afford that requires a soul-sucking highway commute. It’s pretty much a choice between making an asshole landlord or an asshole builder + bank rich. I’ll take the choice that doesn’t keep me up at night worrying about money.

#119 Mikey the Realtor on 07.05.13 at 9:12 am

Hey Mikey,

I am really surprised at you. Fisrt I was DR. Wayne and now I am Alex K ?

Hey Alex K,

Could you kindly explain to Mikey that we are not the same person. The poor guy has had a rough day today, pounding the pavement et all.

———————————

Your dementia must be kicking in since I said nothing about you being DR anyone, I doubt you have the mental capacity to carry a doctors briefcase.

You and Alex K may be two different people but both of you carry on like two bitter losers.

#120 Gold Forever on 07.05.13 at 9:13 am

Yields are rising fast and furious!

FUBAR to Canadian RE.

#121 TorontoBull on 07.05.13 at 9:15 am

“sales have been hammered at the top end, just as they are falling at the lower end.”
hammered?! for GTA:
sales of 1+Mill homes down 2% June YTD
sales of 0-499K homes down 13.7% June YTD
sales of 500-999K homes down 1.4% June YTD
segments in the ‘green”: 500-599,800-899,900-999,1500-1749,2000+
this also explains the significant increase in average prices.

#122 rosie "moving forward" on 07.05.13 at 9:16 am

#83 Kurdt

Thanks.

#123 Bargains everywhere on 07.05.13 at 9:23 am

Looks like with the rise in rates in the US today that our mortgage rates in Canada will be rising again as well.

#124 Mikey the Realtor on 07.05.13 at 9:30 am

#66 Alex K on 07.04.13 at 9:37 pm

#58 Mikey the realtor,
what happened to that listing I asked you about?
BTW, what time did you come by on Monday to pick up the empties and you’re dense _ AK is a different person, run along now

————————————–

what listing? oh yes, the one you were dreaming about but with $500k off, keep hallucinating.

#125 JimH on 07.05.13 at 9:39 am

#79 Dean Mason on 07.03.13 at 1:30 am
“I read from an disclosed source that July-5-2013 U.S. jobs report is coming in weak as June is typically a slow month with summer variances.
It could come in at 95,000 to 115,000.If this is true watch out on Friday.”
=====================================
Was this “disclosed source” scribbled on the back of a Mayan Calendar, or did you just settle for a coin-toss?

US job growth a robust 195,000. Bond yields surge, US$ gains, gold drops. As expected. — Garth

#126 AK on 07.05.13 at 9:45 am

#119 Mikey the Realtor on 07.05.13 at 9:12 am
`Your dementia must be kicking in since I said nothing about you being DR anyone, I doubt you have the mental capacity to carry a doctors briefcase.

You and Alex K may be two different people but both of you carry on like two bitter losers.`
——————————————————————–
Mikey,

You are such a Putz.

I still like you though.

I will arrange some therapy for you with DR. Wayne. Trust me, you will feel much better.

#127 Stickler on 07.05.13 at 10:06 am

Worthy jobs commentary:

“…jobs have quantity and quality components.

The quantity component was good enough to convince the 10 Year the taper is imminent (if not stocks, which continue to trade dislocated from any and all fundamentals).

But how about the quality?

In a word: not good. In June, the household survey reported that part-time jobs soared by 360,000 to 28,059,000 – an all time record high.

Full time jobs? Down 240,000. And looking back at the entire year, so far in 2013, just 130K Full-Time Jobs have been added, offset by a whopping 557K Part-Time jobs.”

#128 OttawaMike on 07.05.13 at 10:23 am

A stunning piece of investigative journalism on how realtors lie.

In tomorrow’s blog post I hope to read the expose on bears pooping in the woods and revelations on ocean water being salty.

#129 Chris L. on 07.05.13 at 10:27 am

Guelph real estate is up, up and away! Sales up 12%. No end in sight.

#130 Squatter on 07.05.13 at 10:27 am

#114 – Steven:
It is just like the fall of the 3 towers at the world trade center on 911. If one was wired for demolition (building 7) then they were all wired for demolition. Every thing else was a distraction to justify the events that followed.
———————————————-
All those conspiracy theories come from USA.
An incredibly high percentage of Americans believe that the moon landings were a fake setup made in Hollywood.
They also believe that the “chem trails” left by the airplanes are a toxic product to poison population, etc.

#131 Tomato Head on 07.05.13 at 10:44 am

The posts in here strike me – everyone thinks all real estate agents are turds – maybe a high % are – so what. Life is about moving forward, and some will do anything at any cost to do it – not agreeing with that concept, but it is obviously out there.

I worked at Foot Locker when I was in school -I knew nothing about shoes besides there is a right and left shoe – I received no training but the biggest incentive was to sell shoes as the volume of sales dictated my commission.

During the hiring process – all they wanted to know was I was able to “think” on my feet. At times I was so convincing on BS that I actually was convincing myself. It wasn’t a highlight in my life – but, as a student struggling to make ends meet – and if it wasn’t me – it would be someone else – that’s life –

Unless you are in the Priesthood – very few professions are saintly ethical. Lets all put our big boy pants on and realize that life is harsh – and 7 Billion people are all looking at ways of getting ahead..

#132 SideLine on 07.05.13 at 10:45 am

My first time on this blog, just moving from Burnaby BC to White Rock BC. My Landlord is a 35 yr old women who could not sell her condo or they would lose money. She was telling me the other day the house they just moved into was $888,000 last year and they purchased it this year for $688,000 give or take a few bucks. Just waiting on the sideline to see where this is all going should prove to be very interesting.

#133 Montel on 07.05.13 at 11:14 am

This is a compilation of real estate in Kelowna area for John Thompson’s Report on the Castanet web site. How do you decript this ?

Every month the Krieg Family team put these numbers together for me (John Thompson). They can be reached at Re/Max Kelowna.

The market has changed and we have excellent news! We are excited to report that here in Kelowna and area, we had a total of 261 Single Family Dwellings (SFD) changing hands. This was the best month in the number of sales since 2007. This equals to 16.4% of the inventory selling which is considered a balanced market and a huge success for Kelowna, as this is the first time in six years.

Kelowna Sales in the Single Family Dwellings (SFD) reached 261 in May which is 29% over May 2012. Incredibly, this is the first time any month made it over our 21 year average of 222 sales, since 2007.

Listings
The number of active listings is currently 1,594; which is 8% lower than May 2012. YTD the total listings taken is 6% lower than the same period last year.

Percentage
We have now entered into a balanced market with 16.4% of the listing inventory selling last month, which is the highest since 2007. Between 15% and 25% of the listings selling is considered a balanced market.

Average
The average price here in Kelowna was $452,615 last month which is still below last year’s May by 7%. Year to Date, we are at $444,682, slightly lower by 3.7% than 2012.

Million
The MLS system shows that 9 residential properties sold in May over $1 Million. These were: 4 Acreages, 1 Lakefront home and 4 Single Family Dwellings. We also took note of 1 industrial property and 1 farm selling over $1 Million.

Conclusion
For the first time in six years, we reached a balanced market here in Kelowna and area. Our market over $700K is still somewhat weak. Town homes are outselling apartments, although we do have twice as many apartments for sale as to town homes.

#134 kommykim on 07.05.13 at 11:25 am

RE: Why are gold investors unhinged nuts? — Garth

Because unhinged nuts are gold investors. ;-)

#135 Ronaldo on 07.05.13 at 11:26 am

#108 Fancy Pants

”I would think they would be encouraging fear and take advantage of a mass sell off rather than keep prices bloated and have the volumes fall as they are.”

Keep in mind that Realturds own a lot of the stuff themselves so not anxious to lose any money on their already overpriced properties.

#136 Smoking Man on 07.05.13 at 11:34 am

#118 sciencemonkey on 07.05.13 at 9:12 am

Smoking Man, I really appreciate the daily reminder of how the world works. I’m the goody goody type that shies away from those kinds of realities, so I need to be reminded. I think a good example is the highway driving phenomenon, where most people are goody goodies who follow the rules and wait in the long line up for an exit, except for some smoking men who cut in at the front of the line. I’m curious, why do you educate the herd on this blog?

….

Not really sure, could be a vitamin b12 deficiency, extreme immaturity, or a sinister long term goal.
………..

#117 Herb on 07.05.13 at 9:06 am#104

SM“… thousands come on here every day to read my nonsense …”To read you, SM? To read YOU????????

……….
Belive it or not herb, not every one likes super man, some people go to the movies cause they like Lex Luther more.

#137 TEMPLE on 07.05.13 at 11:54 am

#118 sciencemonkey on 07.05.13 at 9:12 am

I rent for $1300 a month, which includes everything except electricity. I’m just filled with happiness that I’m giving $15600 a year to a landlord that was around to start buying real estate when it was a good deal. On the other hand, I’m not paying tax, condo fees, water fees, and energy bills.

If you add up all the costs of owning, renting for $15600 a year is actually a pretty good deal. Consider the potential equity loss that landlords face, and it is a great deal.

For example, my wife and I rent for $15000 a year. This house would sell for about 300K (small town). Last year, according to the local real estate board, prices here dropped 6%. So, my landlords lost more equity than I paid them in rent. Renters come out way ahead when housing prices decline. Even when prices are flat, renters do OK.

If you are renting from someone who bought decade or more ago, think of it as a win-win. The landlord is getting a fair yield on cost and you are getting to live cheap while you build equity and wait for the right investments (real estate and otherwise).

TEMPLE

#138 Craig on 07.05.13 at 11:58 am

#118 sciencemonkey

20 years from now you’ll have donated $300,000 to the landlord, not including rent hikes and still not own anything.

A bit of pain and inconvenience initially goes along way 20 years later. Believe me, time flys.

If you’re ok with that then so am I, it’s your cash.

Good luck

#139 Craig on 07.05.13 at 12:02 pm

#127 Stickler

And if you drill down even further you’ll find next to no professional jobs created. All of those positions were sold out to Asia / India years ago.

The jobs people are cheering about are in the service industry for the most part which = waiters / waitresses.

WOW

The USA economy is steaming ahead as predicted.

Could I get fries with that big mac please.

#140 Devore on 07.05.13 at 12:13 pm

#111 Nick

There are plenty of good realtors who take their job, responsibilities and duties seriously, and work hard for the people they represent. It’s like saying all financial planners are just mutual fund salesmen.

How do you tell a good one? You talk to him and check references, behaving like a sensible person, not a knee jerk moron.

#141 WhiteKat on 07.05.13 at 12:16 pm

#138 Craig,

Read here much?

#142 Humberto on 07.05.13 at 12:22 pm

I’m surprised Garth still allows Dr.Wayne or Westernman or whatever personality he decides to go by today to keep posting from his mothers basement. Its pretty embarrassing.

#143 Bottoms_Up on 07.05.13 at 12:38 pm

#30 Chickenlittle on 07.04.13 at 7:36 pm
——————————————
It use to be that the media always reported positive spin on sales and prices. Then, a media firm got sued in Britain by a disgruntled homeowner that lost money. After that happened, the media here started also including negative real estate reports.

#144 TnT on 07.05.13 at 12:41 pm

#138 Craig on 07.05.13 at 11:58 am
#118 sciencemonkey
20 years from now you’ll have donated $300,000 to the landlord, not including rent hikes and still not own anything.
A bit of pain and inconvenience initially goes along way 20 years later. Believe me, time flys.
If you’re ok with that then so am I, it’s your cash.
Good luck
***************

Still not owning anything? If your life goal is to “own” a house then I would say in 20 years you mind as well die cause you successfully complete life. 20 years of renting to me equates to 20 years of not being tethered to 1 view from your dwelling. Imagine looking out the same window every day for 20 years? Isn’t that a life sentence?

#145 Ret on 07.05.13 at 12:42 pm

#113 JS

Remember that you pay your mortgage with after tax dollars. If you divert any extra money into investments, you will need to net an after tax return, minus any buy/sell fees, that is greater than your mortgage rate.

Crunch lots of different scenarios with a mortgage calculator. Shop the rate and also the pre-payment provisions and penalties. This is not the time for snap decisions.

There are lots of free calculators on-line. Hard copy the numbers to keep focused. You will never again pi$$ away another $20/50/100 bill on crap you don’t really need.

It all comes down to, how many years do you want to be beholden to the banksters? It’s not really yours until the last payment has been made and the mortgage has been discharged from the deed.

#146 Leanne on 07.05.13 at 12:52 pm

#138…No sympathy. For a 6 week course you can become a real estate agent and can make over 100k plus/year during the good years. What other profession can you do this? If you don’t know how to save for a rainy day then that is your problem. This is the reality of this profession because RE is cyclical. Many other people have been laid off and have had to look for new careers or jobs.

#147 frank le skank on 07.05.13 at 12:56 pm

#112 Devil’s Advocate Condo Renter on 07.05.13 at 8:33 am
– a drop in price will not have an impact on a boomer or a young professional because they are living a lifestyle that they enjoy and it is this lifestyle that society is shifting towards.

I don’t think society is moving towards condo living type of lifestyle. Lifestyles change, young professionals eventually want families and some retired boomers run out of money. All condo owners will definitely be impacted by a RE correction in a negative way. Most young professionals buy a condo with the intention of eventually upgrading to a house to raise a family. They depend on their condos appreciation in order to upgrade to a house and if it doesn’t appreciate or decreases in value you could end up trapped. I can tell you that I rent a 1000 sq/ft apartment with my wife and kid and it isn’t big enough for us. We make the sacrifice so we can buy a house at a discounted rate, hopefully in 2-3 years. Personally, I’d rather mow a lawn than pay maintenance fees and I would rather not own an asset that could decrease by 25-40%.

#148 AK on 07.05.13 at 12:57 pm

#139 Craig on 07.05.13 at 12:02 pm
“And if you drill down even further you’ll find next to no professional jobs created. All of those positions were sold out to Asia / India years ago.

The jobs people are cheering about are in the service industry for the most part which = waiters / waitresses.

WOW

The USA economy is steaming ahead as predicted.

Could I get fries with that big mac please.”
——————————————————————–
Hey Craig,

Do you work in the service industry?.

You don’t know what you are talking about. Stop embarrassing youself.

#149 craig on 07.05.13 at 1:12 pm

I’ve upset the renters with reality.

Shame

The one renter says he’s paid $15K in rent but the house dropped 6% so he wins

LMAO

The landlord probably paid $100K 10 years ago and since you’ve lived there 10 years you’ve not only paid off his house for him but he’s netted $50K

Some renters no so smert

#150 Devore on 07.05.13 at 1:15 pm

#118 sciencemonkey

If most people put in next to no research into their house purchase, in which “house inspector” is just a checkbox, then renters actually put in even less effort. Which is backwards, because you have less control over things as a renter.

I’ve been renting and owning and now renting again over the past 20 years, and I have never had a single issue renting. That is because I already know the reputation of the manager and property before I walk in the door to view it. Amateur landlords and two bit operators are easy to spot. You have to put in your due diligence. As an owner, you’re going to deal with dozens of different contractors and tradesmen, not to mention the city, lawyers, and probably accountants. As a renter, you have a single point of contact. Don’t screw it up.

It is also true that people of lesser means have fewer options, and the options they do have tend to be worse. We already talked about this. This is the true power of money. Money gives you options. If you cannot afford options, you get stuck with shitty products and services, because that is all you can afford.

But that is true not just of renting housing, so it is not fair to brand renting with the same brush. Renters have nearly the exact same options as buyers, given the same financial situation, and usually at a lower cost.

Ants and centipedes? No thanks, pest control is mandatory, and cheap.

Hot water out? Problems with heat? Nope, building is well run and managed like a business, not “passive income” or “mortgage helper”.

Noisy neighbors? Not so far, and wouldn’t be any more or less of an issue than for condo owners. Have you seen some of those new condos they’re building? No sound insulation. Future slums I tell you.

Bed bugs? Also a problem in condos and even fancy hotels. Bugs don’t discriminate. Haven’t had any though, because I don’t live with the kind of people who bring in infested furniture from the garbage.

You get what you pay for, renting or buying.

#151 TEMPLE on 07.05.13 at 1:28 pm

#150 craig on 07.05.13 at 1:12 pm

The landlord probably paid $100K 10 years ago and since you’ve lived there 10 years you’ve not only paid off his house for him but he’s netted $50K

Don’t be so stupid. I was still a year away from graduating school ten years ago and in no position to buy a house. Since graduating, I’ve moved 7 times for career reasons. I’ve been in my current location for just about a year now.

There are good reasons to rent, even when the real estate market is rising. Now that it isn’t, the case for renting is even better. Of course you know that, but I guess it is hard to troll when you act like a human.

TEMPLE

#152 Old Man on 07.05.13 at 1:33 pm

#147 Leanne – I took that course decades ago, and 6 weeks sounds about right, and it was in 3 parts. I never sold a house as an agent in my life, but to obtain knowledge, and part 3 was about the complexity of writing an offer; great course for any husband and wife who will become real estate investors down the road.

#153 Donald Trump on 07.05.13 at 1:34 pm

#67 Suede on 07.04.13 at 9:37 pm

#18 Disturban Behavious

Why buy a condo in Pitt Meadows where Canucks owners have blueberry farms when you can rent it for cheaper.

=================================

A party we know has Canucks season tickets.

When the team made the playoffs…he had to pay up front for the full potential playoff series (all rounds).

If the Canucks got knocked out early, which they did, the balance of playoff ticket revenue is kept by the team and applied to next years season tickets.

We are talking several thousand dollars.

#154 Donald Trump on 07.05.13 at 2:07 pm

#130 Squatter on 07.05.13 at 10:27 am

#114 – Steven:
It is just like the fall of the 3 towers at the world trade center on 911. If one was wired for demolition (building 7) then they were all wired for demolition. Every thing else was a distraction to justify the events that followed.
———————————————-
All those conspiracy theories come from USA.
An incredibly high percentage of Americans believe that the moon landings were a fake setup made in Hollywood.
They also believe that the “chem trails” left by the airplanes are a toxic product to poison population, etc.

====================================

Moon landing happened? uh huh.

Also..what are those strange plane emissions?

#155 Old Man on 07.05.13 at 2:11 pm

Today I had the last laugh on two Italian millionaires, as outlined to them a couple of days ago that they were losing $1 million in sales minimum unless they changed things concerning their business operation, and outlined for free what had to be done with the property that they owned, but all fell on deaf ears.

I drove by the operation at 1:00 PM, and cars were parked by the hundreds going to two other business operations owned on the same piece of land. I told them to kill the restaurant section that seats 100, as they are parking in key areas with 50 cars for hours, and the need for another entrance door off the main lot.

Well, it was a traffic jam at 1:00 PM, and regular customers were leaving by the dozens as no place to park to buy value added food products; this is target buying with in and out in 15 minutes dropping $30 at the cashier outlet. I held back other ideas, so will now wait for a phone call, but will cost them a consulting fee of $25,000, and want a certified cheque upfront.

#156 Skif on 07.05.13 at 2:42 pm

#150 craig

Damn! Why didn’t i think about that 10 years ago when i was 17! I should have been buying that house in North York for 100k!

Also, seeing as the average house is now over 500k in the GTA, you are saying that values have increased 500% in 10 years?

I think you were trying to say ‘Some *posters* no so smert’

#157 RonH on 07.05.13 at 3:00 pm

#149 Ak some reading to do.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-05/no-manufacturing-jobs-more-waiters-and-bartenders-ever

Thought I would help with your due diligence.

#158 :):( Ying Yang on 07.05.13 at 3:05 pm

#136 Smoking Man on 07.05.13 at 11:34 am
#118 sciencemonkey on 07.05.13 at 9:12 am
Smoking Man, I really appreciate the daily reminder of how the world works. I’m the goody goody type that shies away from those kinds of realities, so I need to be reminded. I think a good example is the highway-driving phenomenon, where most people are goody goodies who follow the rules and wait in the long line up for an exit, except for some smoking men who cut in at the front of the line. I’m curious, why do you educate the herd on this blog?
Not really sure, could be a vitamin b12 deficiency, extreme immaturity, or a sinister long term goal.
………..
#117 Herb on 07.05.13 at 9:06 am#104
SM“… thousands come on here every day to read my nonsense …”To read you, SM? To read YOU????????
……….
Belive it or not herb, not every one likes super man, some people go to the movies cause they like Lex Luther more.
I come to see what Smoking Man is doing every day as it is a fresh breath of air to remind me that in this insane crazy forlorn pre-apocalyptic world there is still some one out there who is crazier than all of us. His daily forays into the previous nights drinking, seducing young woman and gambling are at the very least precocious. The investment tips not so much to go on, as he is a contrarian type investor, but he sure likes to stir up the herd. I would like to invest in the supply of livers to him. I’d be set for life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aclS1pGHp8o

#159 happy renter on 07.05.13 at 3:30 pm

Its sad the housing bubble couldn”t last a few years longer.In China some places have 20 times yearly earnings compared to say only 10 year earnings in Vancouver.So what If Canadians have higher debt as long its manageable.

#160 sciencemonkey on 07.05.13 at 3:33 pm

@151 Devore

Ugh, I can’t imagine buying a condo for those inflated prices and to have them cheap out on the concrete and suffer the consequent noise pollution…

You make some good points, especially about finding a professional landlord. However, I think the options depends on the supply and demand of rentals, the rent one is willing to pay (going back to your point about money giving you options), and where one feels they need to live.

What are your thoughts on the following. If I have a shower break, I call the landlord, and he gets a plumber in to fix it. If it’s 19 degC in the apartment, I call him and he comes to the building and adjusts the heating sustem. (This was the issue that took a few tries.) The hot water out was before this building was sold to a professional landlord, and I’m still pissed off at the previous people.

However, less pressing things I take care of myself. For the odd ant I see I kill and then buy poison traps, the odd centipede I see I kill, and if I want a better kitchen faucet, I buy it and install it myself.

The reason I do this is because I want to be a problem free tenant, which in turn leads to no rent increases. For 2.5 years with the idiot previous landlord, and 1.5 years with the current professional one, I’ve had no rent increases, which if you assume inflation is 3% over 4 years, means my rent is 11% cheaper. I suppose that if I had a landlord that applied the max increase every year, I would be calling more often.

#161 AK on 07.05.13 at 3:43 pm

#158 RonH on 07.05.13 at 3:00 pm
#149 “Ak some reading to do.

Thought I would help with your due diligence.”
——————————————————————–
Indeed. And the Bond yield has spiked over 1% because every American is employed as a Waiter or a Bartender.

Stop polluting the blog with useless propaganda.

#162 craig on 07.05.13 at 3:52 pm

Lower-income jobs may be in the highest supply since the 2007-09 recession, but Americans remain unconvinced that things are improving.

As reported by the AP, U.S. citizens that are on a wage bracket of less than $35,000 a year are pessimistic about their long-term options. As a workforce, according to a recent study, many believe they are worse off now than before the recession, and many believe they are stuck in “dead end” jobs with few career prospects.

Worryingly, only 41 percent of those who stayed at the same post for over a decade ever received a promotion. In addition, 67 percent of all low-wage workers said they saw “a little” or “no opportunity” at their jobs for advancement, even though 72 percent of employers at large firms and 58 percent at SMBs believe there is a “great deal” or “some” chance to advance.

See also: Ten tech skills you must have for a $100k salary

Survival is also more difficult, according to the survey respondents. The majority of low-paid workers, 74 percent, said that it is now “difficult” or “very difficult” to stay afloat, and most worry about unpaid bills, unexpected medical costs, losing their jobs and keeping up with the mortgage.

44 percent and 20 percent reported stagnant or declining wage packets respectively over the past five years.

Labor economist Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute commented:

“Lower-wage jobs are coming back first. But it’s all bleak and it’s all due to lack of demand for work to be done. We’re still not getting more than just what we need to hang on, these last few months have looked better, but we cannot yet claim robust recovery by any stretch.”

The surveys were sponsored by the Joyce Foundation, the Hitachi Foundation and NORC at the University of Chicago.

Wholly unreflective of the ongoing US recovery, but just what I would expect from you. — Garth

#163 craig on 07.05.13 at 3:57 pm

Wholly unreflective of the ongoing US recovery, but just what I would expect from you. — Garth

If something doesn’t support your position then it must be a lie or the numbers must be fabricated or…….

Actually a survey asking people making under $35,000 how they feel doesn’t impress me as economic fact. — Garth

#164 Snowboid on 07.05.13 at 3:58 pm

#133 Montel on 07.05.13 at 11:14 am…

All you need to duplicate their report is a shovel and the closest livestock farm.

I’m not the brightest, but I see a stagnant market – not even close to balanced – and while I find the Krieg reports amusing (especially the videos) they are still nothing more than salespeople, no matter how excited they get.

We have watched the RE market here closely for over two years, and although totally ‘un-scientific’ still conclude we are better off renting.

Looking at the listings under $ 500K we have followed several properties of interest that have been on and off the market for at least two years, and continue to come down in price.

Even the most stubborn of sellers are reducing prices, but are still not selling – even the RE agents we talk to admit prices are still on a downward trend.

We have seen a few properties that just came down another 10% in the last month (condos and townhouses). SFHs are also coming down but not as much.

We signed a third lease with no increase in rent, this despite paying almost $ 1300 less a month than what the rent should be based on the often quoted formula of taking price (purchase) and dividing by 15 to approximate annual rent.

Even taking what we believe the current value is and applying the same formula we are paying almost $ 800 a month less than what the rent should be.

We had thought we would be owners again by October – but it’s likely we will wait until May/June next year.

Patient as ever…

#165 AK on 07.05.13 at 3:59 pm

#158 RonH on 07.05.13 at 3:00 pm
“#149 Ak some reading to do.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-05/no-manufacturing-jobs-more-waiters-and-bartenders-ever

Thought I would help with your due diligence.”
——————————————————————–
RonH,

Here is real website with the real June 2013 Numbers

#166 Old Man on 07.05.13 at 4:19 pm

Let us all take out a minute of silence for Caesar with a prayer, as am losing track over all the people leaving him, as this is becoming a daily gig with members leaving a sinking ship. Caesar it is time to face reality and do the right thing, and just resign, so saddle up and ride back to Alberta, or somewhere as nobody loves you anymore.

#167 craig on 07.05.13 at 4:19 pm

Actually a survey asking people making under $35,000 how they feel doesn’t impress me as economic fact. — Garth

Does this does of reality impress you?

======================================

First, it is important to remember the size of the hole the economy is in. We are down roughly 8.5 million jobs from our trend growth path. We also need close to 100,000 jobs a month to keep pace with the underlying growth rate of the labor market. This means that even with the relatively good growth of the last few months, we were only closing the gap at the rate of 96,000 a month. At this pace, it will take up more than seven years to fill the jobs gap.

It is easy to miss the size of the jobs gap since the current 7.6% unemployment rate doesn’t seem that high. However, the main reason that the unemployment rate has fallen from its peak of 10% in the fall of 2009 is that millions of people have dropped out of the labor force and stopped looking for jobs. These people are no longer counted as being unemployed.

After severe downturns in the 1970s and 1980s, we had months in which the economy created over 400,000 jobs. And this was in a labor market that was more than one-third smaller. That is the sort of job growth that we should be seeing after a recession like the one we saw in 2008-2009. Unfortunately, such growth is nowhere in sight.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/05/june-jobs-report-us-economy

Wow. A British newspaper editorial. — Garth

#168 Smoking Man on 07.05.13 at 4:24 pm

#155 Donald Trump on 07.05.13 at 2:07 pm

People believe in all kinds of crazy shit like, schooling makes you smart.

I have not met one trader, one millionaire who in private believes building 7 was not brought down by demolition, and if so that would mean for knowledge Now as the smoking man hell ya, inside job… But in my suit at the tax farm.

What, are you insane, noway it’s an inside job tinfoil.

That’s one topic machine will have no mercy with you.

#169 Snowboid on 07.05.13 at 4:25 pm

#150 craig on 07.05.13 at 1:12 pm…

Our ‘renters’ reality…

High-end condo (over 1500 sq ft) – landlord paid $ 475,000. Current value (estimated) $ 400,000.

Rent? Under $ 17,500 a year.

Even if the landlord put down 20% on a 25 yr amortization at 2.9% their annual costs are:

Mortgage: $ 21,348
Strata: $ 5,000
Taxes $ 3,000

Their total outlay annually is almost $ 30,000 – not including maintenance, repairs, special assessments, etc.

It also doesn’t include the > $ 75K loss since they bought, or the $ 154,000 in interest over their 25 yr amort (assuming 2.9%). It also doesn’t include the calculation of our investments reducing our rent.

We may not be smert, but smert enough to figure out $ 30,000!

#170 Snowboid on 07.05.13 at 4:29 pm

Not sure what happened to last sentence but should read:

We may not be smert, but smert enough to figure out less than $ 17,500 is better than more than $ 30,000!

#171 craig on 07.05.13 at 4:42 pm

Wow. A British newspaper editorial. — Garth

Supported with factual data. Refreshing…..no?

Snowboid

“… or the $ 154,000 in interest over their 25 yr amort ”

and you paid $437,500 in rent for 25 years

He now owns a condo and you own jack.

Yeah real smert

I notice how you renters always pick the highest possible price for a property then shave off a large % to support your BS claims.

If he bought that condo 5 yrs ago he probably paid $200K and now its worth $400K. What does that do to your little story.

#172 Mike T. on 07.05.13 at 4:51 pm

When the team made the playoffs…he had to pay up front for the full potential playoff series (all rounds).

If the Canucks got knocked out early, which they did, the balance of playoff ticket revenue is kept by the team and applied to next years season tickets.

We are talking several thousand dollars.
—–
this does not surprise me

I think it is even worse if you want Leafs season tickets…..I am pretty sure MLSE makes you also buy Raptors season tickets

#173 EB on 07.05.13 at 4:57 pm

“#169 Smoking Man on 07.05.13 at 4:24 pm
I have not met one trader, one millionaire who in private believes building 7 was not brought down by demolition”

Well see now there’s you’re problem. Have you also polled Jets fans and hairdressers?

Or, you know, structural engineers who actually know how to build a building?

#174 Nosty the Layving Roony Bin on 07.05.13 at 6:07 pm

#169 Smoking Man — “#155 Donald Trump on 07.05.13 at 2:07 pm

“That’s one topic machine will have no mercy with you.” — It was a repeat of Who Did Not Shoot J.R. on Dallas. No one shot JR. We’re all living in a make-believe, fairy tale world where all is goodness and light.

In the meantime, here’s the most recent take on neanderthals and dinosaurs.

#175 Donald Trump on 07.05.13 at 6:13 pm

#169 Smoking Man on 07.05.13 at 4:24 pm

You are the best professional amateur out there, bar none

#176 KommyKim on 07.05.13 at 6:41 pm

RE: #171 Snowboid on 07.05.13 at 4:29 pm

Come on! Smerten up will ya!

#177 Herb on 07.05.13 at 7:17 pm

#159 :):( Ying Yang,

that’s what Facebook and personal blogs are for. But then you only reach the fan base you can attract, and not Garth Turner’s following.

#178 Mike in Surrey on 07.05.13 at 7:24 pm

#170 Snowboid
$17,500 rent per year is better than… but in another 20 years, rent will be $25,500 a year! And the investor will net a profit of $14,000 assuming no Mortgage. That’s 15% return on initial $95000 down payment. Buy and hold real estate if you brought at top of Market.

#179 Nemesis on 07.05.13 at 7:29 pm

“Wow. A British newspaper editorial.” — LordLunenberg of BayStreet, YeAuld&HonourablePol aka Garto El Jinete del Cerdo

Careful now… you never who you might antagonize with such cavalier remarks!

http://youtu.be/etGTJemATqE

#180 Snowboid on 07.05.13 at 10:02 pm

#172 craig on 07.05.13 at 4:42 pm…

Apparently you cannot read, they paid $ 475,000 for it (5 years ago) and it’s now worth $ 400,000.

Sure, we may have paid $ 437,500 in rent but the owner would have paid:

Interest: $ 154,000
Mortgage Principal: $ 380,000
Strata Fees: $ 125,000
Taxes: $ 75,000
Down Payment and lost opportunity cost: $ 250,000
Maintenance and repairs: $ 50,000

Total over 25 years – assuming there are no increases in interest rates, taxes, strata, etc: $ 1,034,000

I guess you could hope that sale prices were up enough for the owner to break even at least – bottom line is ownership costs are over $ 1 million, rental costs are less than half that.

#181 Snowboid on 07.05.13 at 10:12 pm

#179 Mike in Surrey on 07.05.13 at 7:24 pm…

Take your scenario and extrapolate the same increases in rent with owner costs.

Then add in extra interest costs (they certainly weren’t in a long term assuming 2.9%) – the returns you quote are fantasy.

We owned from 1975 to 2010 (still own, but in Arizona), are renters, and for eight years landlords ourselves (investment duplex) – so know the long term value increases we saw since 1975 were mainly responsible for the good financial shape we are in currently.

This isn’t the case anymore, at least in the Okanagan. Renting, at least for the foreseeable future, beats owning hands down – especially when we may not even live another 20 years!

But, we are watching the prices closely and many of the properties we like are approaching ‘bargain’ territory – so who knows?

#182 Snowboid on 07.05.13 at 10:39 pm

Warning to condo landlords:

The other trend we see is condominium strata owners voting to ban rentals.

While this may help the owner occupants’ property values long-term it means the ‘investor landlord’ usually is forced to sell, and at a reduced price.

The first complex we saw do this was two years ago, and the majority of former rental units are still for sale, even after several price reductions.

The only way you can continue to rent the units is if you can prove ‘hardship’ or have a direct relative move in.

This has to hurt the investors’ return, no?

#183 AK on 07.06.13 at 7:30 am

Peter Schiff: Classic – “I do not know. It is going to come soon. I mean, maybe it will come before the end of the year, maybe it will come in 2014 or 2015…you never know. When I was coming to the MoneyShow in 2004, and I was talking about the crisis, I did not know when it was going to hit. I just knew that it was coming. And it came. “

#184 The manipulators - Home Buyer Buddy on 07.07.13 at 6:37 pm

[…] Forgotten is what’s happening in the new housing market – SFHs and condos. It’s a bloodbath. In the GTA, for example – a market of six million people, fewer than …read more […]