Suck it up

BEER BABY1

How tough are things in the mortgage broker business? Brutal. Volumes have crashed. Virgins disappeared. Rates rising. And banks are rushing the exits.

The latest to bolt is CIBC, which this week bailed out of its Mortgage Centre operations, selling it for scant dollars (reportedly) to Dominion Lending Centres, the outfit with the sleazy Don Cherry commercials (how could they be otherwise?). The deal means the bank gives up 160 stores, about 1,200 loan-flogging salespeople and $7 billion in volume. It also means Dominion swells to occupy almost a third of the entire industry.

Why would the bank throw overboard a sales network generating revenue? Because in a shrinking real estate market, CIBC wants all that business redirected through its branch network where ‘deeper customer relationships’ can be forced. Kind of like bondage, but without the handcuffs and jelly.

If you have your mortgage at the bank, chances are your car loan, RRSP and home equity loan will be, too. Plus [email protected] can get her talons into you for fee-laden mutual funds and comatose GICs. Times may be tougher to be a banker, but they’re terrifying to be a broker. Especially when this guy is your marketing plan.

***

Peter is a real estate appraisar working the south end of BC’s Okanagan Valley, where the wrinkly people from Alberta migrate to avoid some snow, drink bad wine and live in monster houses before they croak. This, of course, is the goal of life.

“I thought you would be interested in what is really happening here in the South Okanagan,” he writes me. “Here are three sales that may or may not shock you.”

3948 Valleyview Road , Penticton. “The ultimate in privacy. High end home located on two beautifully landscaped acres. This home has been completely remodeled. New granite kitchen with extensive cabinetry and 5 high end appliances. 3,000 square feet. New hardwood floors. 3 impressive bathrooms. Good quality finishing’s throughout. Triple garage has 3 separate door openers, built in oak cabinets with beverage fridge. Spacious patio areas to enjoy the privacy. Huge driveway and RV parking. Room to build that big shop and carriage home.”

Sold in June of 2011 for $1,195,000. Sold in May of 2013 for $890,000. Loss: $305,000 plus realtor fees and improvements, or 29%.

Valleyview

174 Ponderosa Ave, Kaleden BC (15 km south of Penticton). “This stunning home is located right across the street from Pioneer Park & Skaha Beach. This is a 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom home with beautiful mountain and lakeviews. Large windows and sliders so that you have a lot of natural light. Large deck perfect for entertaining or taking in the lake breeze. The home is surrounded by Allan block walls and amazing gardens. The park across the street has new tennis courts, bbq area, park, basketball courts, boat launch and beach front area.”

Sold in October of 2007 for $715,000. Sold in June, 2013 for $425,000. Loss of value: 40%.

Ponderosa

169 Christie Mountain Lane, Okanagan Falls. “Captivating lakeview from nearly every room! This Heritage Hill residence is situated on 0.529 acres of privacy. 4,254 sq ft, 4 bedrooms, 4 full baths (hobby room could be 5th bdrm). 2 large lakeview decks to enjoy the beautiful views! Spacious kitchen with breakfast bar, 6 appliances and open to nook with vaulted ceiling, skylights and bay picture windows. The sunken great room has a 19′ vaulted ceiling with extra large windows to take advantage of the incredible lake vista, rock faced floor/ceiling gas fireplace. The main floor master bedroom has a cozy fireplace, 4 pc ensuite and French doors to the pool area. This home is located 10 minutes south of Penticton. Relax in the warm Okanagan sun around the in-ground swimming pool or on one of the many stamped concrete decks. 4 gas fireplaces, 2 staircases to upper level, 2 furnaces w/central air, plus 2 hot water tanks, and much more.”

Sold (new) in December of 2007 for $1,150,000. Sold in June of 2013 for $875,760. Loss: $274,000, or 24%.

Christie

Still think the housing correction’s a mirage, or that real estate always goes up? This is what happens when property-rich, asset-poor, almost-retired people discover a house is not a financial strategy. And there are nine million Boomers in Canada. Get ready.

***

Garth: My husband and I are loyal followers of yours. We saw you speak at the Delta a few years ago, and you scared the crap out of us. But it was all for the best because we are liquid, we took your advice, diversified our portfolio, doubled our net worth, paid off debt and avoided situations like what this poor fellow has found himself in. I should add that this sign is posted in a million dollar neighborhood in SW Edmonton. – Amy

desperate

168 comments ↓

#1 smoking man on 06.14.13 at 6:00 pm

Frrrrrrrrrrrrrist!

#2 Exilled on 06.14.13 at 6:01 pm

Mr Turner: It’s news time!

#3 Doodle dog on 06.14.13 at 6:04 pm

First!!!!! It’s funny these people just bought in the wrong area had they spent a few more $$$$ they would be in a better area and the price would not have dropped. Bought in Leaside in 2007 have no worries about a correction, leverage 95% at the time best investment I’ve ever made.

#4 Johnny D on 06.14.13 at 6:04 pm

Garth,

Great to hear about million dollar houses in the Okanagan and all, but what about average houses for average people? What about places like Regina Sask?

Shed some light on what you have studied or noticed there please. Will a guy ever be able to get a half decent house in a half decent neighborhood for something less than $350,000?

Or should I just stop trying to save and invest money and just travel and party non-stop and live as a drifter afterwards?

Sincerely,
Another frustrated person who can’t stand what putting a roof over ones’ head has come to

#5 Derek R on 06.14.13 at 6:05 pm

Bring on the weekend!

#6 Small Town Steve on 06.14.13 at 6:07 pm

Someone forgot to tell these people that 6-49 and lotto max doesn’t count for diversified asset allocation!

#7 Suck it up — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate | The Affluent Boomer on 06.14.13 at 6:17 pm

[…] via Suck it up — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate. […]

#8 Arse on 06.14.13 at 6:17 pm

Lord Have Mercy !!!

#9 Dieekes on 06.14.13 at 6:17 pm

I have friends who moved to Kalowna, I hope they are not weeping on there 3 granite kitchen islands. Things look bad.
I respect the realtors out there though, they were advertising how to sell a home in a depressed market long before anyone else even thought about housing dropping in price. At least the ones I looked at a year ago.

#10 Moller on 06.14.13 at 6:20 pm

No comments today? … I guess I’ve got nothing better to do.

#11 Dieekes on 06.14.13 at 6:25 pm

I hope things in Saskatoon correct like this, pricing has become so stupid it is scary. How can Canada compete with the rest of the world when an electrician here is making 37.52 an hour (50.00 direct cost with labour burden) when the same guy in Texas is making 19.00 an hour?
We can’t compete unless the cost of housing, our biggest expense comes down.
I’m no economist, but that’s the way I see it.

#12 george on 06.14.13 at 6:29 pm

No matter what happens next, the chance that central banks will be able to continue to manipulate down both bond yields and interest rates is getting slimmer by the day. Nonetheless, they’ll keep on doubling down on their bets: the more they lose control (or the more it’s obvious they never had any), the bigger the losses for the financial community will get, and the more they will clamor for more stimulus.

Five Stonking Crashes

#13 nubbers on 06.14.13 at 6:29 pm

Those price drops are scary, but not quite scary enough as they don’t seem to allow for inflation.

#14 Spiltbongwater on 06.14.13 at 6:31 pm

Doesn’t Angela Calla work for Dominion Lending Centres? She “saves” her customers thousands per month by combining their outside debt into their mortgage.

Instead of making households learn from their mistakes getting into high credit card debt, Dominion actually seems to encourage it, and reward the behaviour.

Garth, you seem to know alot about BDSM.

#15 Renter's Revenge! on 06.14.13 at 6:31 pm

I don’t know suits, but that Don Cherry guy sure does!

#16 Randy on 06.14.13 at 6:32 pm

My two favourite words….

No Mortgage…..

#17 willowdale on 06.14.13 at 6:33 pm

Sale of the week in Toronto.
Detached home near Yorkdale Mall . For Sale: $359,900

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=13314842&PidKey=134442721

Love the Monroe pic in the room !
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyPhotos.aspx?propertyID=13314842&PhotoNum=9

#18 Smoking Man on 06.14.13 at 6:38 pm

#1

Imposter

#19 Dienekes on 06.14.13 at 6:41 pm

Dieekes = dienekes
Stupid IPhones. I miss my Blackberry.
I’m laying in a hotel on a beautiful night in Zagreb Croatia, and I have nothing better to do than read this damned blog.
Had the greatest steak ever though by Jarun Lake. All steaks should be wrapped in prosciutto.

#20 Westernman on 06.14.13 at 6:45 pm

Johnny D @ # 4
” What about places like Regina Sask?”
Like I told you before, Johnny – the obvious answer is ” Nobody cares “…
Put down the Pilsner bottle and try to pay attention…

#21 Tom Vu on 06.14.13 at 6:48 pm

Don “maraschino” Cherry is Canadian I-con

Thus must trust and inject his wisdom !

#22 The right way and the wrong way on 06.14.13 at 6:53 pm

Would be laughing at all the fools in Vancouver except the GF is one of em.
She bought a condo 2010. Didn’t realize a 40yo condo might get special appraisals. Now looking at $30,000 for a new envelope. Strata says ‘no rentals’. Now what? Been telling her, ‘Sell, rent, diversify, wait’ She says she will never get back in, parents made big $ in RE, doesn’t want to be lowly renter. Told her to read Garth. Too busy. Too busy to save her own a**!
Not me. Bought in cheaper market up north. Population and job growth looks desent (LNG baby! Petronas!), RE prices didn’t go bonkers, rent is high. Did a little work on the cheap to duplex it, now cash flow the place on long term leases, cover ALL expenses and put a little in the wallet each month and watch the equity grow. Plan ahead for rate increases.
Putting all my pennies in financials and reading Garths books.
Retirement 45, here I come!
Thanks Garth!

#23 NEW: CONDOS bidding wars debunked !!! on 06.14.13 at 7:04 pm

BoC convinced me to put some work into this so from now on you will have CONDOS too. The map is still under construction, the more data I gather the more precise it will become

http://recharts.blogspot.ca/2013/06/new-gta-condos-bidding-wars-debunked.html

and the usual SFH bidding wars debunked for T.O. and GTA

http://recharts.blogspot.ca/2013/06/to-sfh-bidding-wars-debunked-june-14.html

http://recharts.blogspot.ca/2013/06/gta-sfh-bidding-wars-debunked-june-14.html

#24 Jamie on 06.14.13 at 7:12 pm

Damn it 6 months to go before I can pre-approve on renewing my mortgage which expires a year from now. Bank hasn’t changed rates yet so a 10 year would be the same as my current 5 year. penalty to renew early is just shy of 6k.

All I want is 6 more months and I’m laughing.

#25 JHJ on 06.14.13 at 7:18 pm

The wrinkly people from Alberta come to avoid the snow and drink some AMAZING WINE

#26 r1200c on 06.14.13 at 7:20 pm

Methinks CIBC is in a bit of trouble too… I just received a letter stating that they were raising my unsecured line of credit from 3% to 3.75…

I’ve been with them more than 20 years – have no debt and never defaulted on any payments… and coincidentally, my FICO store hit over 800 for the first time ever last month!

are the banks getting “ready”?

#27 r1200c on 06.14.13 at 7:20 pm

that’s 3.75 over bank prime… which is at 3% – than means they want 6.75% for their line of credit now…

#28 samaritansays on 06.14.13 at 7:22 pm

Found this on Reddit posted on /r/vancouver – I wanted to share.

“My attempt at answering why the rent is so damn high!”

http://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/1gd7jc/my_attempt_at_answering_why_the_rent_is_so_damn/

#29 Steven on 06.14.13 at 7:26 pm

It is not yet time to do bargain hunting as there still are no bargains to be had in the real estate market.
Nothing is even close to being affordable untill prices have fallen by at least 90% and won’t go back up because sales and prices are dead and almost gone.
When all this has been achieved then it will be much safer to buy real estate for a little while. Don’t try to catch a falling knife.

#30 DJB on 06.14.13 at 7:28 pm

Funny CIBC just tried to recruite me, here was my response to their email. Their response was to send me their job posting from their site.

“Thank you for sourcing and reviewing my resume in regards to the CIBC Mortgage Advisor position available.

I just have a simple question to ask to see if I would be the right candidate for CIBC and if CIBC would be the right fit for me.

In the past I was been targeted for recruitment by TD Bank as a Mortgage Specialist. In my experience, TD Bank requested that I leverage my contacts by being branded by TD Bank. When I asked about the opportunity to service branch customers I was told that this was not available and handled in branch, the role was to source new clients for TD Bank.

Can you tell me if the opportunity available at CIBC differs from what TD Bank had offered, if so in what ways?”

#31 2CentsCdn on 06.14.13 at 7:29 pm

Interesting and exciting price changes in the Okanagan. May take a while to get here (GTA/Toronto) but the patterns have started. I’m seeing quite a few SFH houses “for lease” now ….. because they couldn’t the ridiculous prices they thought they could get …. and people say they will rent if for a year “to wait for the market to come back” then sell. Hilarious. Anyone who bought a house after 1993 hasn’t seen or felt how fast this will all switch to crappy. And back then people didn’t scream or blame the gov’t for all their problems like now. You took the risk … you won for a while ….. now you’re going to lose ….. take the pain. Kinda like today’s over entitled kids not accepting the consequences of their actions. Interesting times. But opportunities galore will surface for the people who kept (or got) liquid and want to get back into real estate. I still think rental property is a good long term thing. Finally RTI’s will come back in line. To the small percentage of the readers who dabble in such stuff …. get ready … just another year or so ….. and some great news headlines coming up …. all very predictable.

#32 East Van on 06.14.13 at 7:36 pm

Garth,

Your observations are often as wrong as your predictions.

Okanagan wine is quite good actually.

#33 East Van on 06.14.13 at 7:56 pm

You are right about Cherry though….

#34 Daisy Mae on 06.14.13 at 8:02 pm

#25 JHJ: “The wrinkly people from Alberta come to avoid the snow and drink some AMAZING WINE…”

******************

Yeah, come on, Garth! :-) The Okanagan Valley is making a name for itself — this is the Canadian ‘Napa Valley’. Our ice wines are outstanding.

And…those three houses don’t appeal to me. Too much house, too much upkeep, high utilities…and for what?

#35 Freedom First on 06.14.13 at 8:11 pm

I like this statement I read from Albert Einstein. “The difference between “Genius” and “Stupidity” is that genius has limits.”

#36 TurnerNation on 06.14.13 at 8:13 pm

This “self off” in equities is not being confirmed by $USD nor Bonds. Both remain flaccid.
Perfect weather this afternoon – was able to while much of it in the sun on the Duke of Devon’s patio. Extensive ‘Bottom up’ research was conducted!

#37 nicotine patch on 06.14.13 at 8:17 pm

#18 Smoking Man on 06.14.13 at 6:38 pm
#1

Imposter
……………………………………………

Doubt that – #1 seems to be dyslexic too!

#38 AACI home-dog on 06.14.13 at 8:20 pm

Garth….I think you mean ‘deeper relationships can be forged’ ?

Appraiser national AIC convention last weekend….all those I spoke with say they are very busy.
Cheers…

#39 TheCatFoodLady on 06.14.13 at 8:22 pm

Just came back from a Friday evening walk, checking out local listings in this very mixed, working class neighbourhood. Within 6 blocks in any direction – a good 20 SFHs for sale & the Friday Night Fluffing in advance of weekend Open Houses is on. Grass cutting, weeding, sweeping of drives; the usual thing but each passing Friday at many of these homes, the home owners are more grim.

I track about a dozen listings online & I’m seeing the price drops starting as houses linger in the listings longer. One particular one – sold 3 years ago for $225,000. It resold last year for $199,900 – the home owners died & they wanted a quick sale. It relisted 2 months ago for $229,000. Within 2 weeks it dropped to $219,000, then $207,900 & tonight it’s listed at $199,900… again.

Everybody agrees housing is overpriced & due for a correction – but not THEIR house – theirs is special. Year on year SFH sales are down an average of 22% & interestingly, that’s highest at the low end of housing – I’m thinking the young ‘uns are maybe starting to THINK about what being house poor may mean – that or they’re flat out being turned down for mortgages.

I’m also hearing about house sales not materializing as financing is falling through more frequently. That’s anecdotal though – haven’t been able to confirm it.

#40 Mike T on 06.14.13 at 8:45 pm

The wrinkly people from Alberta come to avoid the snow and drink some AMAZING WINE

and

Okanagan wine is quite good actually.

my take

LOL

Okanagan wine has potential, but it is lagging far far behind what is considered ‘good’ wine.

You folks probably also think pressed corn flakes (particle board) is durable building material.

Want good wine? Go to Spain, Rioja. They’ve been making wine since about the year 900.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rioja_(wine)

#41 HogtownIndebted on 06.14.13 at 8:50 pm

Liar’s Club Luncheon In Toronto today?

Today Mayor Rob Ford joined TREB at their rubber chicken event at the Sheraton.

He tried to befriend realtors/frankenumber creators, saying that city councillors are “addicted to spending that land transfer tax, absolutely addicted to it.”

While he is no MD, I do grant that he is qualified to speak about addictions.

The only question about this luncheon is, who is more desperately scraping the bottom of the barrel when it comes to a date, Ford or TREB?

http://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2013/06/14/mayor_rob_ford_asks_real_estate_board_to_help_get_land_transfer_tax_reduced.html

#42 Smoking Man on 06.14.13 at 8:58 pm

Dawn, shit faced again where else senica

Wana share a story, this is close to the Garth sensitivity line, or I will try.. It’s the weekend darn it.

DELETED

#43 Timing is Everything on 06.14.13 at 9:05 pm

Don Cherry would wipe the floor with you Garth…and he’s 79.

#44 Happy Condo renter on 06.14.13 at 9:07 pm

So nice to see the real life info from the Okanogan.

It actually means something, as opposed to the real estate agent crap stats and spins that you see everywhere else.

#45 Spiltbongwater on 06.14.13 at 9:08 pm

Wow, housing in South Okanagon seems dangerous

#46 Gg on 06.14.13 at 9:13 pm

#11 Dieekes How can Canada compete with the rest of the world wheni an electrician here is making 37.52 an hour (50.00 direct cost with labour burden) when the same guy in Texas is making 19.00 an hour?………………….

It is expensive to dig in frozen dirt. And Texas has a lot f shit holes they call home.

#47 AK on 06.14.13 at 9:13 pm

#21 Tom Vu on 06.14.13 at 6:48 pm
“Don “maraschino” Cherry is Canadian I-con

Thus must trust and inject his wisdom !”
——————————————————————–
Right. More like a Canadian Idiot. His act wore out 30 years ago.

#48 TurnerNation on 06.14.13 at 9:18 pm

I bet Bandit could take on that inbred mutt.

Time he gets his own Twitter feed, like Brett Wilson’s poodle’s (yeah giant menacing…poodle): https://twitter.com/JCashWilson

#49 -=jwk=- on 06.14.13 at 9:26 pm

#3 doodle dog. First they say it won’t happen in their country “the banking system here is better”. Then they say it won’t happen in their province “We have oil or banks or ships”. Then they say it won’t happen in their city “we’re the capital, this is where the jobs are”. Then they say it won’t happened in their neighborhood “this is a Good Area” then they say it won’t happen on their street “my neighbor sold in 1 day over over asking, this is the Good Street”.

Then it happens.

#50 just me on 06.14.13 at 9:28 pm

Perhaps doubling your security detail, Mr. Turner, might be a good idea. How dare you, sir, ridicule a man voted by your fellow citizens the seventh greatest Canadian that EVER lived (http://www.filibustercartoons.com/greatest%20Canadians.htm). And what would we do without the daily dose of your prose?!
As for real estate craze in South Okanagan between 2004 and 2010 this may very well have been the greatest swindle perpetrated on citizenry since Bre-X.
Everyone wants to live there, everyone is coming to retire there, once Europeans come to BC to see the olympics they will buy out Okanagan en masse. My personal favourite: Penticton, The Place to Stay Forever. RIP

#51 Dean Mason on 06.14.13 at 9:28 pm

To Gg #46

It looks like the good times for all you tradespeople is coming to end.I guess you forgot how things can get pretty bad since it’s been more than 23 years that real estate in Canada got crushed.

Everything has a limit in life.It’s just your time now.

#52 Joe on 06.14.13 at 9:29 pm

Another Canadian story from Reddit:
http://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/1gcwqj/its_been_a_rough_year_after_buying_a_house_and/
This guy is a typical financial illiterate. Threw so much money into buying his house that a minor salary drop already drove him to the limit financially. Well, at least he is saying that he’s “building equity”…
* cough * cough * shakes head*

#53 Observer on 06.14.13 at 9:30 pm

Like the commercial says, Don doesn’t know anything about mortgages.

But I’m sure he got paid!

Don’t blame Don Cherry, he’s just a puppet for the Real Estate Ponzi Scheme

#54 AK on 06.14.13 at 9:33 pm

Gartman: Gold Is A Broken Commodity

It’s very scarry when Denis Gartman

doesn’t like Gold..

#55 Smoking Man on 06.14.13 at 9:35 pm

Gartho I had a vision, you published a book titled Smoking Man’s deleted posts, it would out sell all your other books put together,

But then again I’m shut faced, what do I know

#56 X on 06.14.13 at 9:48 pm

As I have been condo sitting for a year, sold my house last summer, sold rental property this February. The relative that I have been condo sitting for is returning to Canada, so I am looking for another rental for a year or two.

I have discovered, almost comically, how it is actually harder to rent a condo than to buy one. Landlords are asking for credit reports, employment letters, letters of reference…..when I bought my last home, a townhome, I used a RE agent, called a mortgage lender, signed and faxed some papers back, done.

I can’t imagine how a RE bubble could develop in that type of environment. LOL.

#57 someone on 06.14.13 at 9:51 pm

Donald Trump is coming to Vancouver next week! And he’s bringing his son Donald and his daughter Ivanka with him! They are going to be here to promote Vancouver’s soon-to-be-developed Trump Tower! Wow! With the Trumps in town, this confirms Vancouver is a world class city! It’s also the best place on Earth! How could the Trumps ever go back to New York after they see Vancouver?! New York has nothing on Vanhattan!

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/metro/Donald+Trump+visit+Vancouver+next+week+confirms+speculation/8521789/story.html

#58 Derek R on 06.14.13 at 9:56 pm

#35 Freedom First on 06.14.13 at 8:11 pm wrote
I like this statement I read from Albert Einstein. “The difference between “Genius” and “Stupidity” is that genius has limits.”

Agreed. Fake quotes are the best.

#59 Walter Safety on 06.14.13 at 10:00 pm

Don Cherry was making 250k a year off Rock em Sockem
video when a Toronto bungalow was 85k .
Garth you can let us know when your marketing catches up.

#60 Gg on 06.14.13 at 10:03 pm

#51 Dean Mason on 06.14.13 at 9:28 pm

Everything has a limit in life.It’s just your time now.

Dean … Idiots have their time too and that would mean you. Leave back woods and see the sites. Things have changed.

#61 Innumeracy Chick No More on 06.14.13 at 10:04 pm

That’s Smoking Man at the bar in the picture.

#47 AK Your right Don Cherry is scary.

AK didn’t you buy NVO? You should stay with it. Diabetes is the fasting growing disease.

#62 mortgagebrokeron on 06.14.13 at 10:06 pm

big banks are screwed, its the credit unions that are going to get more of the market place.

next to no fees and friendly customer service.

the mortgages i do are never for the big banks. they are just brutal

#63 Smoking Man on 06.14.13 at 10:14 pm

Watching pbs in my room at senica, blasted out of my mind. I got the head phones on, listening to the rogers eaters opera.

First images of religious ortidox Jews bowing at the wall.

Then it cuts overs to these dark skinned guys bent over praying to meka. Why did the camera be at the back of the room

Then I see me, the individual looking in the mirror saying god, and I do mean god, your amazing, I give you my respect, my loyalty, I pledge my life to you the man in the mirror. I will not hurt you, you have my love, and strength

And the world thinks I’m crazy buy saying something like this.

#64 FutureExpatriate on 06.14.13 at 10:25 pm

“Happy days are here again, the skies above are clear again,
Let’s sing a song of cheer again, Happy Days Are Here Again!!!”

Affordability=Happiness

Not there yet, but we’re getting there.

#65 Smoking Man on 06.14.13 at 10:27 pm

Back at the bar, the fat young girl never knowing real love, band is playing stair way to heaven,. The old dude who once had a life, eyeing her up, she’s eye ball flirting with me.

Honey unless your a throw away, go away paid pro, not going to happen…

Humans, f-en fascinating

#66 Victor V on 06.14.13 at 10:28 pm

PRICE DROP #17 – 15 Ridgewood Drive – FOREST HILL

http://themashcanada.blogspot.ca/2013/06/price-drop-17-15-ridgewood-drive-forest.html

Here is the price history:

February 23 $4,398,888
March 5 $4,397,888
March 12 $4,396,888
March 14 $4,394,888
March 15 $4,393,888
March 16 $4,392,888
March 17 $4,391,888
March 18 $4,388,888
March 28 $4,349,000
April 15 $4,348,000
April 22 $4,299,000
April 29 $4,249,000
May 4 $4,199,000
May 11 $4,149,000
May 23 $4,099,000
June 12 $3,999,000

As of TODAY….

$3,888,888

===================

Gotta love those crazy 8’s. Is someone looking to snare in some foolhardy HAM?

#67 45north on 06.14.13 at 10:33 pm

Peter is a real estate appraisar working the south end of BC’s Okanagan Valley,

Ponderosa Ave bought $715,000, sold $425,000 – it sounds like there was no mortgage, it’s starting to sound like southern California 2006.

CatFoodLady: but each passing Friday at many of these homes, the home owners are more grim.

I’m thinking Peterborough.

#68 Bo Xilai on 06.14.13 at 10:35 pm

“… the south end of BC’s Okanagan Valley, where the wrinkly people from Alberta migrate to avoid some snow, drink bad wine…”

————————-
If wrinkly Albertans are drinking bad wine, it’s strictly due to their lack of discernment about wine, and not because of a lack of great wines.

Some of the wineries around Oliver and Osoyoos produce exceptional wines which I would stack up against anything from Napa or Sonoma.

#69 neo on 06.14.13 at 10:48 pm

That house is going to have trouble selling with the phone number having the Devil 666 in it. That can’t be good karma…

#70 AK on 06.14.13 at 10:54 pm

#61 Innumeracy Chick No More on 06.14.13 at 10:04 pm
“AK didn’t you buy NVO? You should stay with it. Diabetes is the fasting growing disease.”
——————————————————————–
Yes. I have owened NVO since 2005.

#71 Smoking Man on 06.14.13 at 10:55 pm

DELETED

#72 Dave on 06.14.13 at 10:56 pm

Everything in the $700K plus range in the Okanagan has been declining for sometime now. The $400-$500K range has been quite active though. There are some great wines, you just have to know which wineries to visit.

#73 bono on 06.14.13 at 10:57 pm

Garth, is this RBC message accurate?

http://www.thestar.com/life/modernmoney/2013/06/13/infographic-it-s-your-money-a-practical-guide-renewers.html

#74 FTP - First Time Poster on 06.14.13 at 11:00 pm

Just spent 2 days in Naniamo with friends who moved from Edmonton. Their 3 car, 4200 sq ft house on a 3/4 acre lot in town is half the cost ($600k) of what it would be in Edmonton. Makes commuting look attractive

#75 Smoking Man on 06.14.13 at 11:17 pm

DELETED

#76 Gunboat denier on 06.14.13 at 11:36 pm

26 r1200c – ask yourself why it took so long to score
800+.

#77 BC BRING CASH on 06.14.13 at 11:56 pm

#26 r1220c
I’ve been banking with TD for 25yrs or so. My unsecured line of credit with them is costing 4.75% up from 4.25% quite a while ago. Sounds like CIBC is giving you a deal at 3.75%.

#78 FerrisWheel on 06.15.13 at 1:40 am

Gotta be honest, there isn’t much out there for sale in Montreal. I think people are waiting for the market to improve before putting their house on the market. So far, no serious price deflation here.

#79 Kilby on 06.15.13 at 1:58 am

Okanagan wine has potential, but it is lagging far far behind what is considered ‘good’ wine.

You folks probably also think pressed corn flakes (particle board) is durable building material.

Want good wine? Go to Spain, Rioja. They’ve been making wine since about the year 900.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Try some Pinot Grigio or Chardonnays from the Okanagan, world class and winning wine competitiona all over the world. 1,100 year old spanish wine is all corked anyway….I suspect they keep the good wine in Spain as most here is just plonk.

We sold in the Okanagan on March 31, 2011 and are still renting, getting a little impatient but are so glad we bailed when we did.

#80 cynically on 06.15.13 at 2:16 am

#57 – I hope your remark about the Donald being in Vancouver makes that city world class was facetious otherwise you must be as stupid or self-serving as the many local realtors and tourist bureau who use it in their line of work. Vancouver is a beautifully situated but very unsophisticated city, period! As for the few would-be oenophiles praising to the heavens Okanagan wines, let’s be real – some are quite good but not exceptional and priced too high but what alcohol in a bottle in B.C. is not over-priced when the B.C. government controls said price and distribution. Says something about the character of its people and the general character of Canadians as a whole.

#81 Devore on 06.15.13 at 2:54 am

#40⁠ Mike T

Funny you should say that. Di angelos in okanagan has some nice rioja. Estate winery. Lately I have been a fan of Misconduct wines. And Lang wineries had an outstanding sweet/fruity white. If you like white wine, lots of very good picks. But, wine is very much like beer or coffee, or pretty much anything else. Almost purely a matter of taste. If you don’t like red wine, a $100 bottle will still taste like crap, no matter how many awards it won. Drink/eat/whatever the things you like, don’t worry about what others think.

#82 Dienekes on 06.15.13 at 3:30 am

46 Gg
Sparky digging? You made a funny!
Plumbers dig, that’s why there wages are lower

#83 Dienekes on 06.15.13 at 3:46 am

69 neo
666 represents imperfect human governments (wild beast)not the devil.
Incidentally, the prostitute riding the wild beast represents religion. So smoking man must be saying he’s religious in his previous post.

#84 KC on 06.15.13 at 4:05 am

“First!!!!! It’s funny these people just bought in the wrong area had they spent a few more $$$$ they would be in a better area and the price would not have dropped. Bought in Leaside in 2007 have no worries about a correction, leverage 95% at the time best investment I’ve ever made.”

Hey, I want some of what you’re smoking, that stuff sounds gooooood!

#85 Joe Calgary on 06.15.13 at 7:05 am

funny how sensitive ppl got over my post yesterday about my friend that sold his house in Calgary. I wasn’t suggesting it was time to buy, I was pointing out that the market is to my amazement still resilient here. On another note, today’s post is probably one of the most enjoyable for me, it shows there is hope and sanity just over the horizon, and shows that the media and real estate boards are very selective about the information they publish. Why wouldn’t this be on global? 40% losses not worth mentioning? But a 2% gain in Toronto is?

#86 AK on 06.15.13 at 7:33 am

#18 Smoking Man on 06.14.13 at 6:38 pm
“#1

Imposter”
——————————————————————-
More like an Idiotic MORON.

#87 Pr on 06.15.13 at 8:01 am

Line up for condo and sometimes for useless rocks :

http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/gold-buying-panic-in-china-10000-people-wait-in-line-for-their-chance-to-own-precious-metals-stunning-pictures_06142013

#88 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.15.13 at 8:17 am

@ #66 Victor V on 06.14.13 at 10:28 pm
PRICE DROP #17 – 15 Ridgewood Drive – FOREST HILL

http://themashcanada.blogspot.ca/2013/06/price-drop-17-15-ridgewood-drive-forest.html

Here is the price history:

February 23 $4,398,888
March 5 $4,397,888
…..
$3,888,888

Gotta love those crazy 8′s. Is someone looking to snare in some foolhardy HAM?
________________________

Clearly the 888 pricing isn’t working, as the previous attempts to list this place would demonstrate.

Apparently the mythical HAM doesn’t have an infinite supply of funds?

#89 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.15.13 at 8:21 am

Gotta love Google advertising… when reading this Financial Post article on the Bank Of Canada calling Toronto condos a risk (“overbuilt and overpriced” to quote the article), my browser is filled with advertisements for CIBC cashback and 2.99% mortgages!

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/06/13/overbuilt-condo-market-puts-canadian-economy-at-risk-boc/

#90 Guy_Ven_Fox on 06.15.13 at 8:29 am

Garth,

I respect your opinions, however I must ask you and other on this forum is this. What makes you believe that the Fed/BOC would raise interest rates in next 25 years? Unless rates rise, locals would keep the credit/debt binge going.

Secondly, regarding Mississauga. I don’t think this GTA burb would even see a 5% correction, regardless of interest rates rising to 10%. Though I would like it to crash more like 50% so I could afford to buy my first home, but it won’t likely happen in my lifetime. And let me tell you the reasons.

A friend of mine recently landed as an immigrant with all his life savings and selling off everything in his native country. Before he even applied for a job in Toronto, he paid cash to buy a small townhouse in Mississauga.

Another fact, once again related to my native country in South Asia (not China). One of the real estate agents I had spoken to recently, said that there is no shortage of people willing to find safe investments in long run around the globe. His clients include feudal lords (long story … British awarded lands to those in their colonies who betrayed their own people and sided with the crown at the time). These feudal lords have cotton plantations etc. and peasants with generational slavery working in those fields for 1 dollar/day, making their masters filthy rich in the process.

So, this real estate agent goes back to my native country every two weeks and shows inventory to his clients. Those clients have dozens of properties in Canada, all bought out in cash (think cotton). These properties are all rented out to us middle class Canadians trying to make ends meet. These feudal lords have never been to Canada and probably have similar investments elsewhere around the globe.

The point I am trying to make is that we cannot and should not ignore the geo-political factors and lax home ownership laws when predicting a correction. Unless Canadian citizenship is required to buy a house and there is a 50% home ownership tax on second purchase, I don’t see any correction happening. When looking at last 100 years of charts, one forgets that the immigration, foreign money and dirty money never had been the variables at the scale we are witnessing today.

Lastly, ah the Sunshine List. A friend of mine works at a provincial govt entity in Ontario and you would have to see it to believe that young folks in their mid twenties are getting paid six figures in salary (plus 18.2 sick days/year), which is completely baffling as the same job in private sector would pay only half. This is the state of govt. that is up to eye balls in debt, so why wouldn’t the twenty somethings want to buy over priced homes when their lucrative jobs are guaranteed for life?

Hence, considering the following facts, I do not see any correction happening ever in my lifetime at least:

1. Zero Interest Rate
2. Infinite Paper Money
3. Foreign feudal lords of British era who are filthy rich
4. Honest people fleeing with their life savings from strife torn countries and making Canada their new home.
5. No requirement of Canadian citizenship for home ownership.
6. Highly lucrative/grossly overpaid government jobs with 18.2 sicks days/year on average.

I rest my case at that and would ask you or your fellow readers to refute if you disagree from my analysis.

– Guy Fox

#91 someone on 06.15.13 at 8:57 am

@Cynically #80

Relax. My comment about Trump making Vancouver world class was written tongue in cheek.

The point I was trying to make is that the developers and the civic boosters are going to be gushing next week when Trump is in Vancouver. The real estate industry will be bringing out all the comparisons between Vancouver and New York: Yaletown is a borough, Vancouver is like Manhattan, Main Street south of Broadway is now called “SoMo”, Hastings Street east of Victoria Drive is renamed “East Village”. Some of these developers seem to truly believe Vancouver is on par with New York. Having Trump in town and having a Trump Tower will have them creaming their pants. They’ll say, “Look, no real estate crash in Vancouver. Trump in Vancouver is a sign of confidence in our real estate market. A Trump Tower in Vancouver is a sign Vancouver truly is a world class city like New York.” I’ll be barfing as I hear that.

#92 someone on 06.15.13 at 9:04 am

Correction: Main Street south of Broadway is now called (by the development industry, not by real Vancouverites) “SoMa” not “SoMo.” San Francisco has a SoMa neighbourhood (South of Market Street) and New York has Soho. Why can’t Vancouver just have its own identity? Real world class cities don’t pretend to be like other places.

#93 Paul on 06.15.13 at 9:14 am

Hi Garth,

Great posts and perspective. For the rest of us that don’t live in the major centers like Toronto, kind of curious what you think and expect to happen in the Kitchener-Waterloo area and cottage country.

Paul

#94 someone on 06.15.13 at 9:19 am

Vancouverites are so sensitive about their self-image of the city, they need reassurances that the filming of the recent Superman movie in Chicago wasn’t meant as a snub of our city.

“From Tron to the X-Men franchise to Mission Impossible, Vancouver has been the stand-in for many imaginary and existing metropolises…So what gives that when it came to casting the real Metropolis in the new Superman offering, Man of Steel, we failed to make the cut?

Should we be offended?…

Interior newsroom scenes were shot in Chicago’s Willis Tower and the exterior was played by the Chicago Board of Trade, but the Daily Planet layout and props were largely influenced by The Vancouver Sun’s editorial department.

Set decorators and prop creators working on the film toured The Sun to study the layout and inner workings of a contemporary newsroom.

Everything from the nameplates on office doors to Lois Lane’s Nikon camera and the page proofs floating around the Planet’s offices were influenced by The Sun…

Choosing Chicago over Vancouver to play Metropolis likely wasn’t a slight to our city.”

http://www.vancouversun.com/entertainment/movie-guide/Vancouver+passed+over+play+Metropolis+Steel/8529105/story.html

#95 someone on 06.15.13 at 9:27 am

Here’s a good one. The real estate industry has renamed the part of Burnaby south of the Lougheed Highway, the “SoLo District”. This name also conjures similarities to New York’s Soho.

http://www.vancouversun.com/homes/Location+price+draws+Solo+District/6966915/story.html

#96 Joe on 06.15.13 at 11:16 am

Detroit is Bankrupt.

#97 jess on 06.15.13 at 11:55 am

honey traps/pots and shaming walls

‘deeper customer relationships’

is it real!
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2013/06/14/offshore-leak-database-released.html

Wednesday, July 22, 2009
In trusts we trust
http://taxjustice.blogspot.ch/2009/07/in-trusts-we-trust.html

The district attorney in upscale Nassau County, New York, has unleashed civil strife by posting the names and pictures of 104 men arrested in a prostitution sting over the last six weeks.

‘Operation Flush the Johns’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2335372/Operation-Flush-Johns-Nassau-County-DA-posts-pictures-104-arrested-prostitution-sting.html#ixzz2WIhLVP00

#98 Mr. Anderson on 06.15.13 at 11:58 am

Trump won’t have a single dime in the deal. He’s just selling his brand to greater fools.

#99 Piccaso on 06.15.13 at 12:00 pm

#11 Dieekes on 06.14.13 at 6:25 pm

Here’s another comparison between Saskatchewan and Texas… a $120 a night for the Econo Motel in Regina and $32 a night in Dallas. lol

#100 jess on 06.15.13 at 12:11 pm

muni’s

… Rita Crundwell, the thief of Dixon, IL , for a while. Rita Crundwell stole $53 million dollars over twenty years from the City of Dixon with a very simple plan: Create a fake bank account; pay fake State of Illinois invoices from the city’s account; put those funds in the fake bank account. How was all this possible?

read more at:
http://retheauditors.com/2013/06/11/my-latest-forbes-magazine-article-the-madoff-of-munis/

#101 Panhead on 06.15.13 at 12:25 pm

And here I thought there were only two types of wine – red and white. Lot’s to learn here on GF.
All my fellow “cheeseheads” down in Palm Springs are up in arms because the “two buck chuck” is now “two and a half buck chuck.” The nerve …

#102 Daisy Mae on 06.15.13 at 12:35 pm

Gotta love those crazy 8′s. Is someone looking to snare in some foolhardy HAM?
________________________

#88 TO Bubble Boy: “Clearly the 888 pricing isn’t working, as the previous attempts to list this place would demonstrate.

Apparently the mythical HAM doesn’t have an infinite supply of funds?”

***********************

The price isn’t working because it doesn’t matter. What matters is the house number. For example: ‘5838 Smith Street’.

#103 FutureExpatriate on 06.15.13 at 1:11 pm

#91 RE: Trump in Vancouver:

Trump is just working on his “escape” from the next umpteen+ years of liberal rule in the US. He sees the inevitable writing on the wall; no more conservative administrations or Congresses in the US. Ever. He just figures his endless BS and money will go farther to buy gov in Canada that will service him and his ilk. Hopefully he will be as wrong about that as he is about everything else in this universe.

#104 James on 06.15.13 at 1:18 pm

And now for my biweekly appeal for some comment on the Saskatchewan market? Please? Is the reason it is never mentioned that it does not fit into the narrative that describes TO and Van?

#105 Vancouver Hipster on 06.15.13 at 1:46 pm

#90 Guy_Ven_Fox on 06.15.13 at 8:29 am

What a load of steaming crap!
(I am a successful South Asian immigrant. I would know.)

#106 cynically on 06.15.13 at 2:10 pm

#91 someone – you are so right about the “rivalry” (ha,ha) between Vancouver and New York. Well put!

#101 Panhead – twobuckchuck is now a penny more in PS than in Bellingham. Who’d have thunk it?

#107 TurnerNation on 06.15.13 at 3:34 pm

The Senate got a case of at-trough-y.

Sadly we’ll never know Smoking man’s fable today. Perhaps he met the Girl from Nantucket?

#108 Tony on 06.15.13 at 3:57 pm

Those million dollar neighbourhoods in Edmonton only fetch around 4 to 500,000 dollars when it comes time to sell. Sometimes it takes years just to get any offer even an offer of 50 percent off the list price.

#109 lucyj on 06.15.13 at 4:05 pm

re. panhead 101- B.C. has a great selection of official wines. Just a few are B.C. Teachers Union Wine,B.C. Nurses Union Wine,B.C. Gov’T Employee’s Union Wine and a very extensive list of wines found only on the left coast. We must be the envy of the rest of Canada.

#110 Old Man on 06.15.13 at 4:08 pm

#104 James – I would love to help you, but where is this City of Saskatchewan, as know it not.

#111 Stickler on 06.15.13 at 5:28 pm

@ #91 someone on 06.15.13 at 8:57 am

@Cynically #80

Relax. My comment about Trump making Vancouver world class was written tongue in cheek.

Hastings Street east of Victoria Drive is renamed “East Village”.

>>> HA! Funny (assuming you have been to both)

>>> For those that don’t know, Trump leases his name out for crap like this. He has no skin in the project. That’s what smart people do.

#112 Stickler on 06.15.13 at 5:32 pm

@ #109 lucyj on 06.15.13 at 4:05 pm

re. panhead 101- B.C. has a great selection of official wines. Just a few are B.C. Teachers Union Wine,B.C. Nurses Union Wine,B.C. Gov’T Employee’s Union Wine and a very extensive list of wines found only on the left coast. We must be the envy of the rest of Canada.

—-
I think Ontario has those wines too! And in addition the police department wine!

#113 OffshoreObserver on 06.15.13 at 5:48 pm

REALTOR MASSACRE?

Check out how many of the Rennie & Co. realtors have updated their “News” from April 04, 2012.

I gave up counting.

http://rennierealty.com/sa

I guess the real questions are what are they doing now? What are they going to do? And how bad is it going to get?

#114 Dienekes on 06.15.13 at 6:08 pm

#104 James
On Saskatchewan
James, I have been watching the sales of housing lots in Saskatoon on the latest draw which commenced June 10th for Kensington phase 1 and Evergreen phase 6.
Just go on the web to City of Saskatoon land sales.
These draws are sold out within a few days.
Evergreen- half the lots or more unsold
Kensington- 2 of the over 130 lots are sold, that’s it.
I figure builders are still loaded up on lots which are not selling, and are unwilling to buy more. I think it is a good indicator of where things are headed.
I could be wrong, but I am watching it with interest.

#115 Dienekes on 06.15.13 at 6:13 pm

#90 and 94
Are you guys novelists?

#116 Stoopid Idiot on 06.15.13 at 6:15 pm

AKA DR. Wayne

I can imagine anyone getting more wrong than Dennis Gartman

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/12/14/grandich-willing-to-wager-gartman-us1-million/

http://www.gettingtechnical.com/wordpress/?p=1151

#117 Dienekes on 06.15.13 at 6:23 pm

Why is everyone convinced HAM is driving the market here. These are smart people, would they not instead avoid Canada’s market like the plague and buy in the USA where things are rising in value?

#118 AK on 06.15.13 at 6:40 pm

#116 Stoopid Idiot on 06.15.13 at 6:15 pm
“AKA DR. Wayne

I can imagine anyone getting more wrong than Dennis Gartman”
——————————————————————–
Even a blind squirrel manages to find a nut on occasion.

As somebody already said, Dennis Gartman always looks in the rearview mirror when he makes his outlandish predictions.

And BTW, I am not Dr. Wayne. :-)

#119 Innumeracy Chick No More on 06.15.13 at 7:24 pm

lucyj and stickler

Don’t knock the nurses! Nursing is a Respectable profession.

#120 Donald Trump on 06.15.13 at 7:27 pm

Everywhere I have gone, the citizens have experienced my blessing.

#121 George on 06.15.13 at 7:35 pm

VMD over at Vancouver Condo Info posted the following link in the comments section earlier on today.

How Do You Say “Housing Bubble” In Canadian?

#122 Smoking Man on 06.15.13 at 7:50 pm

Day 2 senior, man did my body take a shit kicking, why do do this…

Guy_ven_fox

Excellent post, very insightful, no wishful bias, just the facts jack…

#123 Keith in Calgary on 06.15.13 at 8:01 pm

The condo I rent in Calgary has dropped in value by $35K in 36 months……….comps were listed for $249K when we moved in….now they are $215K and dropping………….also, a special assessment of around $12 on the one bedroom units was levied 18 months ago. The two bedroom ones were much more…….

Real estate……what a great investment.

#124 Daisy Mae on 06.15.13 at 8:11 pm

#109 lucyj: “B.C. has a great selection of official wines. Just a few are B.C. Teachers Union Wine,B.C. Nurses Union Wine,B.C. Gov’T Employee’s Union Wine…”

***************

Very good! I do detest their seemingly annual whining, as well….

#125 Daisy Mae on 06.15.13 at 8:18 pm

119 Innumeracy Chick No More “lucyj and stickler

Don’t knock the nurses! Nursing is a Respectable profession.”

********************

We’re not talking about ‘respectability’. We’re talking about ‘greed’.

#126 FutureExpatriate on 06.15.13 at 9:05 pm

#124

That’s right. Sure can’t destroy that middle class without endlessly kvetching about unions as a first step.

Hey! Worked in Germany in ’31.

#127 allan on 06.15.13 at 9:06 pm

I agree, Mississauga kicking buts like no tomorrow. Beautiful place to live, out of reach for an average Canadian.

#128 mortgagebrokeron on 06.15.13 at 9:10 pm

Garth, the mortgage brokering business is the way td and scotia bank get customers and then they pull the clients into the branch and cross sell them credit cards, mortgage life insurance, and bank accounts with service fees.

Cibc got out of the business because they sucked at cross selling their customers. They view mortgage brokers as too expensive. average 1% commission per mortgage.

TD and Scotia are much better at cross selling.

Also CIBC wants to sell higher rates to clients in the branch, they want to stay out of the mortgage rate competition.

Also just so everyone knows, the mobile mortgage agents that banks use get paid less than half of what mortgage brokers get paid, they are unlicensed, and they only have one product on the shelf.

The mortgage brokers business is fine out here

#129 Heather Nova on 06.15.13 at 9:20 pm

The Blue Mountain Winery in Okanagan Falls produces world class wines. Garth, you can even pick some up in Toronto on your way home at Rogers and Company. It’s the only Canadian wine they carry. I’d recommend the Pinot Noir 2011. Salut!

#130 Smoking Man on 06.15.13 at 10:36 pm

The secrets of success.

Is it having perfect command of the English language
Is it having an Einstein IQ
Is it being drop dead gorgeous.

No to all of the above..

It’s guessing heads or tails and being right more often the not. And having skin in the game.

It all boils down to coin…

If you write well and your math ain’t bad they credit your schooling, if your like me it’s just luck.

I will take luck anyday

#131 Kingarthur on 06.15.13 at 10:36 pm

All the “whiners” seem to be congregating on this site. Why do you want to drag everyone down to your level? Why not go to school and improve your situation, fiscal and otherwise, like the teachers, nurses and policeman have. BTW East Van is still selling briskly, at or above asking price. Remember, all real estate is local.

#132 Chickenlittle on 06.15.13 at 10:48 pm

#57 someone”

“With the Trumps in town, this confirms Vancouver is a world class city! It’s also the best place on Earth! How could the Trumps ever go back to New York after they see Vancouver?! New York has nothing on Vanhattan!”

That is hilarious! I LOVE NYC. It is so much fun! Comparing Vancity to NYC is like comparing the fake perfume you buy on Canal Street to the real thing at the department store. Not even close!
It’s hard to tell, but I’m assuming that you are being sarcastic.

#133 Guy_Fox on 06.15.13 at 11:03 pm

# 122 Smoking Man

Yes sir, truth, nothing but the truth … tell that to the hippie guy @ #105.

– Guy Fox

#134 Guy_Fox on 06.15.13 at 11:06 pm

#115 Dienekes

No, I am not, writing is my hobby though, what I do for living is completely different from my literary activities.

On a related note, are you are publisher?

:)

#135 Smoking Man on 06.15.13 at 11:08 pm

When I had my near death experience and I met god.

He was frightened, that’s why he sent me back.

But he’s only God of this galaxy, the god of the universe hides. And that goof is so scared of losing his chair to me. He let’s me drink like an animal, smoke my brains out, challenging his thunderstorms in my wee boat.

Always let’s me win.

Note to thevgod and gods, I’m taken over soon, you can’t keep me down here on this little shit planet for so long.

The thrown will be mine….

Get you wills in order…

I’m coming soon

#136 Dean Mason on 06.15.13 at 11:41 pm

#60 Gg

Just because you call me an idiot,it does not mean that there will not be economic and financial consequences for your industry and all real estate related jobs.Time will tell how deep the damage will be.

Just by you calling me an idiot means you know there is some truth of what I said.The good times are over,suck it up and try limit the damage you will receive.Your even lucky that Garth is warning people like you for the last year or so.

#137 Waterloo Resident on 06.16.13 at 12:05 am

What to understand exactly what a MESS the American government has placed themselves in? Well, just imagine this scenario :

– An unemployed man owes $50,000 on his credit cards, so he goes to the bank and takes out a $200,000 loan; part to live on, the rest to pay off the interest on his cards. A few months later, he now is broke again, but now he owes $250,000 in debt, so he goes to the bank and takes out $1 Million. He lives for a few more months, then once again he is broke and goes to the bank for more money.

The problem of too much debt cannot be solved simply by taking on more debt, as the U.S. will soon find out.

US budget deficit is decreasing. — Garth

#138 45north on 06.16.13 at 12:20 am

Guy_Ven_fox: What makes you believe that the Fed/BOC would raise interest rates in next 25 years?

because they cannot keep them where they are.

regarding Mississauga. I don’t think this GTA burb would even see a 5% correction, regardless of interest rates rising to 10%.

rows and rows of houses as far as the eye can see – each house has a story – sometimes the owners own the house free and clear – no mortgage – sometimes they don’t. Okay let’s talk loan-to-value (LTV). If there is no loan then LTV is 0. If the house is worth $500,000 and the mortgage is $250,000, LTV is 50.

Here’s my story. A man was in the forest when it started to rain. He ducked under a tree to avoid the rain. Someone asks him “what are you going to do when the rain drips through your tree?” “Easy” he says “I’ll go to another tree”

#139 Donald Trump on 06.16.13 at 2:04 am

I always celebrate Father’s Day…just in case

PS Happy Father’s Day to all you “Mutha’s “out there

#140 Ballingsford on 06.16.13 at 7:19 am

Happy Father’s day Blog Dogs!

#141 neo on 06.16.13 at 7:42 am

US budget deficit is decreasing. — Garth

So if I’m on the Hwy and I’m going 140 km/h, but I decrease my speed to 130 km/h, am I still speeding? The U.S. is still speeding at $1 trillion dollar deficits (-;

Progress is progress. It will continue to improve. — Garth

#142 Dan Griffiths on 06.16.13 at 9:36 am

When an American economist like Dr. Krugman begins to notice our housing market and debt levels, you know things are starting to look shaky here! American pundits and media in general normally don’t notice much of anything north of the 49th!!

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/15/worthwhile-canadian-comparison/

#143 Min in Mission on 06.16.13 at 10:06 am

Randy @ 16

My two favourite words….

No Mortgage…..”

Not many of us can say that, yet, that may not be the best thing!!

#144 Piccaso on 06.16.13 at 11:10 am

“No Mortgage…..”

My niece and husband are adding to their mortgage so they can pay off their Visa and other bills.

#145 Donald Trump on 06.16.13 at 11:21 am

I like this Smoking Man chap.
Reminds me of myself when I was older.

Its clear Canada does not appreciate his talents so I will UN fire him.

#146 Kilby on 06.16.13 at 12:42 pm

#125 Daisy Mae on 06.15.13 at 8:18 pm
119 Innumeracy Chick No More “lucyj and stickler

Don’t knock the nurses! Nursing is a Respectable profession.”

********************

We’re not talking about ‘respectability’. We’re talking about ‘greed’.
*****************************************

Bad hours, bad backs, lots of training, when I am sick I want the best trained people looking after me, couldn’t pay me enough to do what they do. Check what hospital administration and HR pay themselves…

#147 jess on 06.16.13 at 1:12 pm

efficiency and trust comes with regulation

Martin McGee
…”In the 1960s and ’70s, inspectors under regional chief postal inspectors such as Martin McGee, known as “Mr. Mail Fraud,” exposed and prosecuted numerous swindles involving land sales, phony advertising practices, insurance ripoffs, and fraudulent charitable organizations using mail fraud charges.[wiki

================

CHAPTER 7: PROTECTING CONSUMERS IN A TROUBLED ECONOMY
Deceptive Mortgage Practices
32 of 76
chapter 9
http://www.ftc.gov/os/2011/04/2011ChairmansReport.pdf

Consumer Sentinel. The FTC’s Consumer Sentinel Network
serves as the FTC’s primary source for determining where the
FTC is most needed. Consumer Sentinel collects consumer
complaint information and makes it available through a secure,
online database to more than 2,000 federal, state, and local law enforcement organizations in the United
States, Canada, and Australia. It currently maintains more than 14.4 million complaints collected during
the past five years. The database enables the FTC and its law enforcement partners to spot trends quickly,
target the most serious illegal practices reported by consumers, and coordinate law enforcement efforts
with its counterparts.

#148 Old Man on 06.16.13 at 1:28 pm

Happy Father’s Day for all in Canada, as had to take my phone off the hook with kids calling me Daddy, and am innocent of all charges. Am being pranked by the old ladies because they love a joke in life, as love to rock my boat.

#149 Timing is Everything on 06.16.13 at 1:38 pm

Progress is progress. It will continue to improve. — Garth

Kinda like Hyundai and Kia. Suck it up.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21686822
http://tinyurl.com/k97z67t

#150 Blobby on 06.16.13 at 2:02 pm

Just been reading the comments under this story and the number I read saying “okanagon looks dangerous” or “I wouldn’t buy there right now”… Makes me face palm.

Seems to show precisely what Garth keeps saying. If these properties were going up in price, no doubt people would all want them.. Fact they’ve dropped 30%, or more, and people are going “ooh, don’t want that”…

The idiocy of people not buying things which have dropped in value, but will buy things which hAve gone up in value confuses me… Past performance is not and indicator of future..

#151 Craig on 06.16.13 at 2:29 pm

So the renters are all excited cause rates jumped a tiny % and a few houses in an obscure place like the Okanagon dropped.

WOW and this event you’ve been waiting for has taken 5 years.

Bad news is the renters are still paying off someones house for them and their investments are getting creamed.

I guess the plan backfired cause the market drop is greater them the house price drop and rates are STILL at historic lows.

Owning will ALWAYS be better then renting but if you folks want to convince each other it’s not, good luck with that.

I’m going onto MY deck, by MY pool, in MY backyard, of MY house and have a pop.

#152 bill on 06.16.13 at 2:36 pm

#146 Kilby on 06.16.13 at 12:42 pm
Check what hospital administration and HR pay themselves…
exactly right .
what a pack of drones.way to many chiefs and not enough indians.

#153 :):( Ying Yang on 06.16.13 at 2:43 pm

#135 Smoking Man on 06.15.13 at 11:08 pm
When I had my near death experience and I met god.
He was frightened, that’s why he sent me back.
But he’s only God of this galaxy, the god of the universe hides. And that goof is so scared of losing his chair to me. He let’s me drink like an animal, smoke my brains out, challenging his thunderstorms in my wee boat.
Always let’s me win.
Note to thevgod and gods, I’m taken over soon, you can’t keep me down here on this little shit planet for so long.
The thrown will be mine….
Get you wills in order…
I’m coming soon

Sorry Smoky the throne is already taken here by Satan, you can’t share with him. Old slew foot likes your style though.

#154 Debtfree on 06.16.13 at 2:44 pm

Don Cherry … It’s free . Either he’s a liar or he hasn’t lived long enough to have learnt that everything comes at a cost . What a goof . His thirty second clip was long enough to make me want to puke . I wonder what DA is doing for a living these days .

#155 Canadian Watchdog on 06.16.13 at 3:30 pm

US budget deficit is decreasing. — Garth

That's exactly what the Fed doesn't want and the reason why when every policy measure fails, the last card is war.

G8 dispute breaks out on Syria arms

#156 AK on 06.16.13 at 3:35 pm

Jeff Gundlach: 3 Reasons Interest Rates Won’t Head Much Higher

#157 jess on 06.16.13 at 3:49 pm

For Release: 06/06/2013
FTC and Dozens of Law Enforcement Partners Halt Travel and Timeshare Resale Scams in Multinational Effort
191 Actions Brought By FTC and Its Law Enforcement Partners
The Federal Trade Commission today announced 191 actions to stop fraudulent operations hawking timeshare property resale services and travel prizes, including three FTC cases, 83 civil actions brought by 28 states, and 25 actions brought by law enforcement agencies in 10 other countries. More than 184 individuals face criminal prosecution by U.S. Attorneys and local law enforcement.

http://ftc.gov/opa/2013/06/timesharerelease.shtm

#158 Old Man on 06.16.13 at 4:14 pm

#154 Debtfree – Don Cherry is no fool as his contract with his gig on TV with the hockey games comes in at about $800,000 a year, so he is laughing all the way to the bank.

#159 Smoking Man on 06.16.13 at 4:20 pm

What is this, da nannanana BATMAN !!!!!!!!

Bond yields

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/

Told you so!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Three basis points. This blog has reached a new low. — Garth

#160 Donald Trump on 06.16.13 at 4:22 pm

I am the Don Cherry of my domain.

#161 Old Man on 06.16.13 at 4:47 pm

I told you all that the entertainment business pays the big money, so checked out a gal that knew many years ago. This gal in life cared not about money, as was a song writer as a teen, and just wanted to sing with a piano, but cared about her kids leaving them a bit of cash. Her net worth 2013 is a modest $168 million, as she could have have done more, but she took a road with her heart in life to do her thing.

#162 Debtfree on 06.16.13 at 4:54 pm

@158 om . So are you saying he can afford to tell the truth but chooses to not for more money ? Double down Donny .

#163 45north on 06.16.13 at 5:05 pm

old man: Don Cherry is no fool as his contract with his gig on TV with the hockey games comes in at about $800,000 a year,

so what’s he doing with Dominion Lending?

#164 Craig on 06.16.13 at 5:08 pm

A 1% increase in rates drives the numbers mentioned below to unmanageable proportions. Believe what you want folks but the US will not allow rates to go up.

If they go up, the US defaults = it ain’t gonna happen.

Vulnerable Budget Path

In the contentious 2011 debate over the U.S. debt limit, President Barack Obama and Congress agreed to raise the debt ceiling by $2.1 trillion in exchange for specified spending reductions over 10 years. The Budget Control Act allowed the President to raise the limit in three increments from $14.29 trillion to $16.39 trillion.[3] At the time, the United States lost its seemingly permanent AAA rating from Standard & Poor’s, starkly affirming the risk arising from the nation’s budget path.[4] America’s budget problems are twofold: (1) spending and debt are dangerously high today, and (2) future spending and debt are on track to rise even higher.

As dangerous as these trends are, the long-term unfunded obligations in the nation’s major entitlement programs loom like an even darker cloud over the U.S. economy. Demographic and economic factors are expected to combine to drive spending in Medicare and Social Security to unsustainable heights. The major entitlements and interest on the debt are on track to devour all tax revenues by in less than one generation.

#165 Andrew Woburn on 06.16.13 at 5:14 pm

152 bill

“way to many chiefs and not enough indians”

Please note this form of expression is no longer permitted by the Canadian Thought Police. It must be restated as:

Too many traditional community leaders and not enough original immigrants

#166 Old Man on 06.16.13 at 5:41 pm

#45north – It is like this in life, as when one is a star they will hoop all that will pay, as say show me the money, and will become a front man with this and that that as a PR man for anything.

#167 Tony on 06.16.13 at 5:50 pm

Re: #164 Craig on 06.16.13 at 5:08 pm

Very simple solution all America has to do is tell the truth about the monthly unemployment figures. The whole world knows America is losing jobs month after month all they have to do is admit it.

#168 Ralph Cramdown on 06.16.13 at 6:02 pm

So now we’ve got someone who gets his economic analysis from the Heritage Foundation and someone who thinks the government is fudging all the economic data.

I’ve heard many interesting arguments about the future direction of bond prices — differences of opinion are what makes a market, after all, and the bond market is the largest in the world — but the notion that rates won’t go up because the debtor can’t afford for them to is a particularly bizarre one.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FGRECPT?cid=107