Wasted

creature2

“My partner and I currently have a conditional offer on a Toronto condo,” says Axel.  “I know, dreadful words. But here are the numbers and rationalization for buying the 25-year-old condo in the St Lawrence Market.”

Before we vivisect poor Axel, a word on why people buy homes they could instead rent for far less. (a) It’s cultural. In a nation where home ownership’s at 70% and in a city where it’s 76%, real estate is wallpaper. People here are massively invested in exactly the same asset, and the need to conform is overwhelming. (b) Peer pressure. Without property virgins buying in, the housing market as we know it would collapse, since these babes account for four in 10 deals. No wonder we have 5% down and first-time tax credits. The kids are head faked. (c) Helicopter parents. Boomers figure since real estate worked for them in an inflationary age, it’ll work for everyone, always. Take advice from the most self-absorbed generation ever? Priceless. (d) Nesting. Never, ever, underestimate hormones. Re/Max and Royal LePage sure don’t. (e) Fear of investing. More money has been lost on real estate than was ever dumped in stocks. But nine of ten Canadians have no idea what an ETF, preferred or REIT is. Nor do they care to find out. (f) And lethargy. It’s always a surprise how the young are so willing to trade freedom, mobility, experience and liquidity for debt and domesticity. I wonder why.

Back to Alex & his squeeze. The condo is $307,000, and they have 10% down, which means debt (including $5,600 for CMHC plus closing costs) of about $287,000, plus $800 a month for taxes and fees.

“We haven’t seen the status certificate yet but we know there is a special assessment of $13,000 and have negotiated for the seller to pay 2/3rds of it. We’d pay $5,000 over three years. Currently we rent for $1950 and are first time buyers with no real investment experience.

“Our calculations have us paying $350 extra a month for the privilege of owning an old condo, probably through a real estate decline but we intend to own and live in the family friendly building for 15 – 20 years and after horrible experiences with absentee condo landlords we want the security of ownership. The question is, are we completely crazy, house horny fools?”

Of course, adding in the lost investment potential of the downpayment, the premium for owning over renting is almost $550 a month, $6,600 a year, or 28%. Given that Toronto’s condo market is sliding, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, this is nuts. Why pay more to buy something which is losing value? And isn’t the fact there’s a special assessment on a 25-year-old building a warning of things to come? Condo fees could double in the future, with individual owners powerless to prevent it. Renters, of course, couldn’t care less.

As for the ‘living in a family-friendly building for 15-20 years’, this is a childish justification for short-term desire. No sane person lives in a condo in the urban core for two decades. You will face the costs of a deteriorating structure, the vicissitudes of a market in which everybody wants new, rising mortgage rates and a neighbourhood you cannot control. Plus, buying this will clean out the kids’ cash and shoulder them with twenty years of debt.

How, exactly, is this ‘security of ownership’?

More evidence youth is wasted on the young.

***

It seems Ground Zero for the Canuckistan Correction is shifting to Victoria, that bucolic and leafy paradise which thinks it matters. Sales in May equalled those in the same month of 2012, which sucked. Prices were down about 4%, and of the 384 detached homes changing hands only 18 went for more than $1 million, which means there is a 14-month supply of seven-figure listings. Three of those I showed you in the last post, where asking prices were reduced an average of 57%.

Here is the latest report from our correspondent, Dan Dogwalker.

Since May 12 now only six houses have sold with several new listings and price changes that average well over $50,000.  Of the two houses that sold in June there were radical reductions to entice a buyer.  Here’s the biggest one and you have to see it to believe it.

526 Beach Drive (a VERY nice 2100 sq foot home with stunning ocean views): Assessment: $1,004,000; asking April 19: $939,000; asking May 13: $899,000. Sold June 3: $837,500. Sold under assessment: $166,500. Sold under original asking: $101,500.

From the MLS listing: “Designed for E.B. Halsall by Samuel Maclure in 1912, this historic beachfront home offers sweeping panoramic views of McNeil Bay, Trial Island and beyond to the Olympics. Nestled proudly on the Southern slope of Anderson Hill, this charming home retains all the original character of a classic beach cottage from a bygone era, while still allowing for remodeling or redevelopment. Inside you’ll find bright and warm, sunlit rooms offering amazing vistas of people playing on the beach and bountiful sea life. You can enjoy both the calm, glass like water of the summer and the dramatic wind swept white caps of winter! It’s just a short stroll to the Oak Bay Beach Hotel, Victoria Golf Club and only minutes away from the lovely Oak Bay Village.”

BEACH

Hmmm. The local real estate board just said this: “Homeowners who are pricing their properties competitively, not expecting the higher sale prices of 2008, are selling their homes. With 4,783 active listings, buyers have plenty to choose from. With higher sales volumes and a reasonable inventory level, Greater Victoria continues to edge towards a balanced market.”

Says Dan: “No one can convince me that this market is balanced. As my dad was fond of saying: Don’t eat that Elmer, that’s horseshit.”

144 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 06.09.13 at 5:36 pm

What’s the world coming to?

– 3/4 of a mill for a store selling peanuts and sunflower seeds and the like in open bins? This ain’t rocket science.

http://www.bulkbarn.ca/en-ca/franchising.html?p=faqs

The turnkey cost for a store that is approximately 5,000 square feet in size starts at a minimum of $700,000 plus applicable taxes, which includes the initial franchise fee.
Yes, there is an “Advertising Fund” contribution, based on a percentage of sales, which is payable on a weekly basis.

– For a “greasy spoon” type of breakfast-only place, that’ll be 3/4 mill?:

http://www.chezcora.com/franchise-opportunities

Total investment
From $550,000 to $800,000 (with a minimum of approximately $300,000 unencumbered equity) which includes the franchise fee and training program costs
Royalties
6% of net sales plus advertising fund

#2 valleyrenter on 06.09.13 at 5:44 pm

Early post today. Quite the map, shows that the only thing Vancouver is a world player in is overpriced everything.

#3 Fan of yours on 06.09.13 at 5:48 pm

Waiting and renting

#4 Shawn on 06.09.13 at 5:57 pm

Bulk Barn “Opportunity”

I must agree with Turn Nation (number 1 today). That Bulk Barn franchise looks like a terrible idea.

Buyers may be paying a huge price to buy themselves a minimum wage job and the franchise may be very hard to sell if you want to sell later (and you will…)

People who would never ever dream of putting $100k into a single stock contemplate putting $700k into this sort of thing.

Yeah, this looks like a dreadful idea. Run, don’t walk away from this sort of thing.

There are great franchise opportunities available. I don’t think this is one.

But maybe I am wrong. If for some reason you visit these stores and they happen to be insanely busy then maybe they are on to something (I doubt it). Look at the financial statements carefully. See if there is profit left after you deduct the fact that you will be working 80 hours a week.

Find out how much a bank will lend on this. If it’s 50% or less, that will be a clue.

#5 Mikey the Realtor on 06.09.13 at 6:00 pm

The market is starting to pick up now, we have hit bottom and ready for a catapult through the highs, it is in everyone’s best interest to get in now or be priced out forever. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

#6 JSS on 06.09.13 at 6:00 pm

#1 TurnerNation

Depends on the net profit. Could be a reasonable price.

#7 Shawn on 06.09.13 at 6:01 pm

Bulk Barn

says: What type of return can I expect? “We do not provide projected earnings statements…”

******************************************

Gee, I wonder why that would be? Well if not projections, how about some actual historical examples?

Run, don’t walk!

#8 Piccaso on 06.09.13 at 6:08 pm

Dildo, Newfoundland

$98,500 CAD Beds: 3
Baths: 1
Sqft: 1,075
Property type: Residential
Date Added: 05/16/2013
MLS ®: 188778

Features
•Fuel Electric•Ocean View

http://www.point2homes.com/CA/Home-For-Sale/Newfoundland/Rural-Eastern-Newfoundland/Division-No-1-Subd-E/Dildo/26-Front-Road/32424904.html

#9 Victoria Real Estate Update on 06.09.13 at 6:21 pm

There is absolutely nothing balanced about the housing market in Victoria. It is a buyer’s market.

526 Beach Drive sold for -16.6% below assessment. Remember that the most recent assessments were down across the board in Victoria compared to the previous assessment period. This historic beachfront house probably sold for about -25% below its peak value.

526 Beach Drive is located in one of the most affluent areas of Greater Victoria. One popular myth that you will hear when talking about real estate in Victoria is that houses located in the more affluent areas will not correct much at all. The fact of the matter is that all areas of Greater Victora are correcting at about the same rate.

#10 Weenerman on 06.09.13 at 6:33 pm

I always wondered about Cora’s – why buy a place that only serves breakfast and lunch?

#11 Devore on 06.09.13 at 6:44 pm

Currently we rent for $1950 and are first time buyers with no real investment experience.

“Our calculations have us paying $350 extra a month for the privilege of owning an old condo, …

Of course, adding in the lost investment potential of the downpayment, the premium for owning over renting is almost $550 a month, $6,600 a year, or 28%.

I seriously doubt they are buying a $300,000 condo equivalent to what they are renting for $1950. They are seriously downsizing in either space (so much for “family friendly”) or location (hello commute!).

$1950 rent for a $300k condo? That almost makes sense as an investment. Almost.

#12 An Importation to Prop the Ponzi Scheme on 06.09.13 at 6:56 pm

@#5 Great thinking Mikey. What happens after everybody buys?

#13 Nosty and Grantmi -- Megalomaniacs Unlimited! on 06.09.13 at 7:04 pm


Smoking Man — Thought you would enjoy these links, esp. the first with the line “If these jobs are creative, a toaster is painting Rembrandts.” (which pretty much describes dumbass sheeples today.

Here is the second. Rock on!

#14 Devore on 06.09.13 at 7:04 pm

Hey, Chez Cora is awesome and pretty effin far from a greasy spoon, the only downside is that I have to drive an hour to get to the nearest one just so I can wait in line to have delicious lunch, so I don’t do it.

#15 Sask Girl on 06.09.13 at 7:08 pm

In Regina this house has been on the market since about last fall. http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12907524&PidKey=1659243205

It was listed at $1,995,000 and now it’s 1,450,000.

There are currently about 950 properties listed for Regina on MLS. Is this unusually high? I’m not sure what’s ‘normal’ for this city.

#16 Weenerman on 06.09.13 at 7:19 pm

Devore, I didn’t criticize Chez Cora’s food (which I think is overpriced, but that’s besides the point). If you we’re going to invest money in a restaurant, why pick one that doesn’t serve the most expensive meal of the day?

#17 TurnerNation on 06.09.13 at 7:20 pm

I’d pay about 250k for that ramshackle shack by the sea. Seriously. You can see its wavy gravy walls from here.

Today’s pic: Everybody go surfin – surfin USA.
Fun fun fun till daddy takes the T-bird away? But I’m mixing metaphors.
(Some say the Beach Boys were a hastily assembled creation, of those who could barely play and sing, as a CIA push. For the counter culture and drug addled minds, of course. As some of the band lived into their later years, barely functioning.

PET Sounds? My take on it (‘Twas the atomic age): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positron_emission_tomography )

#18 Alex K on 06.09.13 at 7:23 pm

#5 Mikey the Realtor
Things must be tough these days eh?
May I suggest collecting empty bottles in the mean time

#19 Today's Example on 06.09.13 at 7:43 pm

Good thing Axel and I decided to walk away from the dying building last week and are signing up for a new lease instead. Must warn now Axel not to go off writing desperate letters of help to witty bloggers lest he become blog fodder instead!

Now Garth – we should talk about all those great REITs and ETFs we can buy on sale instead.

#20 Mark on 06.09.13 at 7:45 pm

Hey Garth, what do you make of this in Prince George – nonsense? The old ‘in recent weeks’ meme?

http://ckpg.com/real-estate-sales-increasing-in-city-video

#21 Doberman on 06.09.13 at 7:51 pm

Interesting read: Canada’s Housing Bubble Nears Implosion:

“Regarding the former point, almost always an asset-bubble will telegraph to the market when it is about to burst with an unequivocal signal: falling sales. To understand why this is such an obvious warning-sign requires at least a rudimentary understanding of the mania which fuels such asset-bubbles.”

“What falling sales tell us is that the mania is over, and a point of “capitulation” has been reached. This occurs when both the greedy and the fearful say to themselves “too expensive” – the death-knell of any/every bubble. In Canada’s housing market, two of the largest urban markets (Toronto and Vancouver) are reporting dramatic drops in sales.
In Toronto, urban sales are now down 13% year-over-year, while in Vancouver sales have plunged by 17% over the same period, and are now at lows not seen since 1998. The end is near.”

“The CMHC has been buying-up mortgages so fast that the Harper government has had to raise its legal borrowing limit twice just since the Conservatives took power, and will soon raise it a third time as it nears its new limit of $600 billion. In proportionate terms it is now larger than Fannie Mae (at its peak), and this occurs as a Euro Pacific Capital report reveals that, “Once small, Canada’s sub-prime mortgage industry is now booming.” It goes on to report that there are now $500 billion in “high-risk mortgages” in Canada’s housing market – nearly half of the entire mortgage market.”

“In any other time, a betrayal of this magnitude would have been branded as “treason.” Welcome to the 21st century!”

http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/canadian-commentary/25801-canadian-housing-bubble-nears-implosion

Garth’s call is nearing everyday.

#22 Steven on 06.09.13 at 7:52 pm

If the real estate in BC is contaminated with radio isotopes from Fukushima what are those properties really worth? Zero? May be that is why the government does not monitor radiation. If they did and the results were made known and therefore believed by the public all those homes would be unsellable and worth nothing. Just so much contaminated waste that used to have a 6 or 7 figure price tag.

#23 DJB on 06.09.13 at 7:52 pm

First off BC Ferry fares have taken a huge bite out of the Vancouver Island and Gulf Island tourist traffic from the mainland.

Secondly back in 2008 you could not buy any waterfront property on Van. Isle, Sunshine Coast, Okanagon or the Kootneys for under $1MM.

The old motto for Victoria the town for the newly wed and nearly dead. Newly weds do not gomthere anymore so it is full of the nearly deads.
Seems times have changed.

#24 The Prophet Elijah on 06.09.13 at 8:00 pm

Calgary and area listings:

March 27 – 5309
Today – 6479

Houses selling but more coming onto the market. Alberta oil is back to $80/barrel for now, but the Tories budgeted for $100/barrel oil and still have a deficit. Doesn’t sound like they’re holding the line with the 2013-14 budget, more cuts on the way to return to balance:

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Alberta+deficit+forecast/8313443/story.html

#25 NFN_NLN on 06.09.13 at 8:04 pm

#91 mel in victoria on 06.06.13 at 10:40 am

#70 NFN_NLN

I have a safety deposit box at TD and was warned that it is against the law to keep cash in it.

They can’t keep electronic money safe, they can’t keep physical cash safe, they don’t pay reasonable interest, they over charge fees… parasites.

Was it the TD bank in Canada or US told you that?

——

TD Canada Trust
Financial Services Terms
http://www.tdcanadatrust.com/accounts/FST.pdf

Section E – Safety Deposit Box
5. Use of safety deposit box
– You will not store in the box currency or legal tender of any country or jurisdiction, nor use the box for any purpose other than the storage of valuable papers and property…

#26 Ken R on 06.09.13 at 8:05 pm

#5 Mikey the Realtor on 06.09.13 at 6:00 pm

Thanks Mikey but I’ll pass.
I’ll also pass on the Bulk Barn and Chez Cora. Good luck with the staffing at minimum wage rates.

#27 Wasted — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate | The Affluent Boomer on 06.09.13 at 8:23 pm

[…] via Wasted — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate. […]

#28 Sundaysleepr on 06.09.13 at 8:25 pm

Maybe black stone will buy it an rent it out under the auspices of pride in real estate

#29 jan on 06.09.13 at 8:36 pm

I don’t believe hat story for a second.
Sounds like a realturd fabricated horseshit to advocate buying over renting …….stay put…more horseshit to come I’m sure.

#30 jjpetes on 06.09.13 at 8:37 pm

That beachfront property in vic, I live in Vic, look at the google view:

https://maps.google.ca/maps?q=526+Beach+Drive+VICTORIA&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x548f744d79828991:0xe8a2717c30f16e1e,526+Beach+Dr,+Victoria,+BC+V8S+2M6&gl=ca&ei=mBy1UbyDM4_nigK654CwCw&ved=0CCwQ8gEwAA

Give me a break, 899 thou? This is borderline crackshack (or mansion according to the website from Van). After closing costs moving costs, insurance, maintenance for a 100 year old house, furnishings, interest payments now your talking a Million? For that?

Helooooo, for THAT?

Oh my god do we need a serious kick in the ass in this country. Over priced, over indulged POS that should really be priced for about 200K AT BEST.

We have so gone out of control its a complete joke.

Yeah we are in for a serious, oh lets call it a “correction”, how about a reality check. I like how Mark Carney left so close to the rolling over, how convenient. Like when Greenspan left when the bubble was about to burst in the USA. Let me tell you the current FED exit strategy, here’s the exit strategy: Bernanke will leave, THAT is the exit strategy.

These central bankers are charlatans. The rest of the financially illiterate idiotic country will be left with the tab. The ones that were responsible Like ME are looking to diversify and invest like there’s no tomorrow so that WE are not left paying the bill from this pigathon of stupidity that is left of this country.

Please Garth post this…

#31 jan on 06.09.13 at 8:38 pm

One more thing
As far as the intelligence of an average Canadian about investing is comparable to that of a poodle !

#32 Sundaysleepr on 06.09.13 at 8:40 pm

Buffet, soros and Paulson have been dumping stocks at an alarming rate the last few months – who really is the greater fool?

Time will tell…

#33 Editor on 06.09.13 at 8:40 pm

Like these 2 houses were built as rentals? Especially the $11K/month house – who is this supposed to attract? Brangelina and the kids?

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=13060580&PidKey=1812270116

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=13174405&PidKey=171170870

#34 RedFlag on 06.09.13 at 8:47 pm

Cant believe how stupid some people are buying a condo right now let alone one with a special assessment aka the building is falling apart lol…. Deserve to lose their shirts… And some money

#35 Mikey the Realtor on 06.09.13 at 9:11 pm

Obviously I knew that posting a little fact was going to get some people upset, collecting bottles or working at cora is unnecessary at this time, there are still quite a bit of sales going on and I doubt it will slow down any more.

#36 Julia on 06.09.13 at 9:20 pm

You can’t buy a “family friendly” sized condo near St Lawrence Market or anywhere in the city for $307k and unless Axel was overpaying rent, they are likely in a better and/or bigger place than where they are going.

Also, another reason people buy instead of rent is the security of not worrying about having to move at the owner’s whim, which is why we rent in a rental building instead of a condo.

#37 Vangrrl on 06.09.13 at 9:20 pm

Vancouver houses are cooked if that Victoria house went for 800 grand. There are smaller houses in my neighbourhood in east Van listed for a million- with a view that includes garbage bins in the back alley of a Vietnamese restaurant off Kingsway (great place to eat by the way- hmmm, maybe that justifies the high asking price?!)

#38 Ralph Cramdown on 06.09.13 at 9:22 pm

Hey Mikey, have you ever heard the story about the little real estate board that cried ‘wolf’? Mine’s line is currently that all those broke-ass first-time buyers that Flaherty rudely shut out of the market last year have saved their pennies, demanded raises or convinced their parents to HELOC and are now ready to buy the market.

Call me when your board’s membership is down a third from its peak.
— Ralph the Wolf

#39 jjpetes on 06.09.13 at 9:23 pm

Why don’t you post my comments?

You still mad bro?

Can’t take it when someone takes you to task? Just like a politician, you never really leave it because you cannot take the real world for what it is.

You will always be a weak man. Anyone who censors is weak end of story.

I posted your comment (and others) when I came back from walking my dog. You can apologize now. — Garth

#40 BG on 06.09.13 at 9:28 pm

St Lawrence Market?

Oh gawd Woofstock and we couldn’t get down there cause the Yonge-Union subway closure.

Esplanade booze can fetes and a Saturday market with no parking. Plenty of bums around and a Harveys with mice.

Wasn’t that home of the old city asphalt plant down there at Jarvis-Esp? That stretch of the Esplanade is where the trains came through to Union before they built the viaduct in the twenties.

#41 Shawn on 06.09.13 at 9:30 pm

OWNERS EARNINGS AND MINUMUM WAGES

I’ll also pass on the Bulk Barn and Chez Cora. Good luck with the staffing at minimum wage rates.

*****************************************

Bulk Barn staff getting minimum wages may earn more (per hour) than the owner. There’s no legal minimum on profits.

#42 ChickenLittle on 06.09.13 at 9:31 pm

#12 Nostradamus:

I hope you don’t mind that I read your mail to SM, but your links are usually really interesting! That first one especially made me think of this excerpt from a book I hope to have a copy of very soon:

“An overwhelming value placed on productivity stems from a reduction of human nature to a soulless, mechanistic, materialistic existence. The activities which appeal to our deepest nature and which inspire and enrich us are, for the most part, unproductive in a capitalist or industrialist sense. They have to do with physical closeness and affection, with emotional energy, with unmarketable creative expression, with relationships, with curiosity, with play and with inner and outer rituals by way of which we approach the numinous and the divine.”

http://www.wildestcolts.com/books/madness.html

The first line especially gets me. It describes our lives in this country perfectly: go to school, obey, graduate, obey, get a job, get married, buy a house, have kids (cause you know you’ll never be happy without them), and then retire. Repeat.

From your article:

“99% of the world has been trained like rats to adore systems.”

Yes, we have!

#43 george on 06.09.13 at 9:36 pm

Ponzi World

#44 FutureExpatriate on 06.09.13 at 9:41 pm

Hell returns to the US; Canada, at least five years away.

Cash Only, Scum

#45 jaguar on 06.09.13 at 9:44 pm

Globe & Mail, saturday…cover story “The Taming of an Oil Cartel”. Are you listening out there in Alberta? USA doesn’t need your oil and other places (Russia, Nigeria) are already moving faster than you to market their product to Asia. Never mind Keystone XL. Too little, too late. All these people with their head up their ass in Cowtown. It’s 1982 all over again, except this time you won’t be able to blame the federal government. Anybody gloating out there as they read this better consider the effect on their own local economy….especially ‘YOU”, la belle province. Quebec has been a big beneficiary of that dirty Alberta oil. Fasten you seatbelts…….we are all in for a bumpy ride.

#46 johnny d on 06.09.13 at 9:52 pm

@#5 Mikey the Realtor

If you’re right Mikey, you’ll have to start looking for new work when everyone is priced out forever. That would mean no one would be buying houses then. Realtors like Mikey sure lack in the logic department.

#47 AK on 06.09.13 at 9:52 pm

#30 Sundaysleepr on 06.09.13 at 8:40 pm
“Buffet, soros and Paulson have been dumping stocks at an alarming rate the last few months – who really is the greater fool?

Time will tell…”
——————————————————————-

You are full of shit as Buffett goes. Buffett just bought NV Energy.

As far as Soros and Paulson go, nnobody gives a shit what they do.

#48 Smoking Man on 06.09.13 at 9:54 pm

Vladimir thanks for the links, Jon is smoking man fan, takes my ideas and turns them into master pieces, a gifted word smith….

The other link blew my mind, universal consciousness, ha fans everywhere….

Old man, we are all dirty old men, I’m proved of my dirt, not ashamed in the leased

#49 johnny d on 06.09.13 at 9:55 pm

@ #14 Sask Girl

Yes 950 listings is high in Regina. Last year this time it was hovering around 700 or so… Let’s not forget how comfree has been picking up in popularity as well. That accounts for almost 300 more listings in Regina. Tons of inventory here.

#50 willworkforpickles on 06.09.13 at 9:57 pm

#40 – it’s hell now.

#51 Nosty to ChickenLittle on 06.09.13 at 10:10 pm

#38 ChickenLittle — “99% of the world has been trained like rats to adore systems.”

Ain’t that the truth! Noticeable that autism started to catch on as a ‘disease’ about the same time as all these new ‘wonder drugs’ started coming on the market. Coincidence? There are no such things as coincidences! Incl. ADD, ADHD and the like.

It’s all about the almighty greenback, to boost ObamaCare and fleecing the citizens. Cheers!

#52 george on 06.09.13 at 10:20 pm

Canada slammed for lagging behind in fighting tax evasion as G8 summit looms

#53 Smoking Man on 06.09.13 at 10:21 pm

Vladimir did you see Alex Jones loss it in the BBC studio.

It was brilliant he came off completely insane, which will get air time.. BBC goal paint this guy as a loon, mission accomplish,

however, Alex screaming out info wars. Com, just got 1million new viewers… $$$$$

So each side feels they one… Still think Jones is CIA, you can’t view his videos when browsing incognito….

#54 willworkforpickles on 06.09.13 at 10:25 pm

#21 Shhhhh …don’t tell people the real and frightening reason real estate on the west coast is tanking (nuclear radioactivity jet stream bound from Japan and all) – Are you trying to start a major panic sell off and subsequent (hydrogen bomb drop in prices) horror show on the west coast or something?

#55 Ralph Cramdown on 06.09.13 at 10:33 pm

#30 Sundaysleepr — “Buffet, soros and Paulson have been dumping stocks at an alarming rate the last few months – who really is the greater fool?”

Of those three, I’d definitely have to nominate Paulson.

Since you didn’t even paraphrase the source of your doomsaying, may I present the performance of the tiny fund run by him?
https://www.google.ca/finance?q=shknx
Down 5.3% YTD and since inception. Almost 20% in TIPS (and at a nice 1.55% management fee).
And if you actually read Buffet’s 13F filings, he’s been buying.

#56 Ford Prefect on 06.09.13 at 10:46 pm

From the comments and article it appears almost no one looked closely at the pictures from the MLS listing. I would say looking at the state of the yard, fencing, and roof that this was an estate sale – house and grounds suffering from years of decline through lack of maintenance by elderly owners. If it were an estate sale then that would explain the price.

#57 Kurt on 06.09.13 at 10:52 pm

# 21 Steven

I suggest that you get in touch with whoever provided you with your physics education and ask for your money back.

#58 MagnumMtl on 06.09.13 at 10:56 pm

it was interesting to see how the local condo developers were using the F1 race to try to generate sales here in Mtl.

Free tickets to the race, extended sales office hours, special VIP tours, the parking of fancy rented sports cars in front of the building.

It’s starting to smell desperate.

#59 Gg on 06.09.13 at 11:16 pm

#44 AK

You are full of shit as Buffett goes. Buffett just bought NV Energy.

As far as Soros and Paulson go, nnobody gives a shit what they do
————————–.-
BH cash position is the highest since 2007. He is selling more stocks than buying. Fact.

#60 Jon B on 06.09.13 at 11:20 pm

I used to live next door to 526 Beach drive about 15 years ago. I was a recent University grad and rented. Wonderful location, amazing views. Anderson Hill park is, well, at the top of a hill, so the properties around there all have serious incline and stairs. I guess not even the best areas of Oak Bay are immune to price drops.

#61 AK on 06.09.13 at 11:30 pm

#54 Gg on 06.09.13 at 11:16 pm
“BH cash position is the highest since 2007. He is selling more stocks than buying. Fact.”
——————————————————————–
I don’t doubt their cash position. They are making a lot of money.

Warren Buffett : Latest Buy/Sell

#62 Cowpoke on 06.09.13 at 11:58 pm

526 Beach Drive, a tear down, functionally obsolete, house and yard, how much for that view!!?? Must be outta your mind! 800 plus k!, must be NUTS!

#63 Waterloo Resident on 06.10.13 at 12:20 am

I understand why the government in the U.S. and in Canada lowered rates to ‘EMERGENCY LOWS’ when the financial crisis hit, but common, we are well past that financial crisis now, isn’t it time we start RAISING RATES up from this EMERGENCY LOW level by now?

#64 Sask Girl on 06.10.13 at 12:22 am

@ #46 johnny d

Thanks for the response. I too thought the private sales would add quite a few more listings to the total. I wonder what this high volume will mean for Regina’s market. Everyone says there’s a major boom here that will never quit and will fuel the housing market for years and years.

#65 The Man From Nantucket on 06.10.13 at 12:29 am

1 -TurnerNation – For a “greasy spoon” type of breakfast-only place, that’ll be 3/4 mill?:

http://www.chezcora.com/franchise-opportunities

Been a while since I played in the restaurant sector but here goes:

The costs are arguably too much for what you get, but calling Cora’s model a greasy spoon is a bit unfair…..Breakfast there is a fair bit more complicated than Eggs over/bacon/white/homefries.

Where this one is going to kill you is that even with higher prices than a regular greasy spoon, table receipts are modest, and you can probably only turn the tables over once or more in the weekend brunch slot.

To survive in this game, you need an opportunity to sell dinner c/w copious amounts of liquor and/or desserts. It ain’t there at a Cora.

Your food cost percentage is probably also on the high side with their menu. Keeping the menu fully available and controlling spoilage is going to be a tricky balancing act……perhaps beyond the ability of the kitchen help you can get and keep at min wage plus 10 to 20%.

#66 Smoking Man on 06.10.13 at 12:41 am

So prisom reading all our all emails, our secret inventions, our ideas for making loot, all out there.
for the privileged few to front run…

Hahaha

The 1776 gun toting ip addresses on the list for fema camps..

Then the smoking man http://www.keysme.org

That’s old tech. My corporate version will make any super computer blow up running Decryption algos.

Smokey always ahead of the curve. Told you dogs the machine is watching….. What 2 years ago.

I’m on mls.ca looking for an island in maskoka.

My new version for paying clients, un crackable

#67 Joseph R on 06.10.13 at 1:44 am

#48 Nosty to ChickenLittle on 06.09.13 at 10:10 pm
#38 ChickenLittle — “99% of the world has been trained like rats to adore systems.”

Ain’t that the truth! Noticeable that autism started to catch on as a ‘disease’ about the same time as all these new ‘wonder drugs’ started coming on the market. Coincidence? There are no such things as coincidences! Incl. ADD, ADHD and the like.

It’s all about the almighty greenback, to boost ObamaCare and fleecing the citizens. Cheers!

Your link sounds like Scientology crap…

#68 Tom Vu on 06.10.13 at 1:53 am

DELETED

#69 Tom Vu on 06.10.13 at 1:59 am

#9 Weenerman on 06.09.13 at 6:33 pm

I always wondered about Cora’s – why buy a place that only serves breakfast and lunch?

=====================================

Thats why should get married….serve all 3 meals on time or they get no ” tip.”….

#70 Bubu on 06.10.13 at 2:13 am

#50 Smoking Man

I’m no fan of AJ, but that interview was definitely a setup.
He did not see this one coming and fell for it hook, line and sinker.
To bad AJ can’t keep his gop under control.
That fool is doing more harm than good with those tirades.

#71 Observer on 06.10.13 at 3:42 am

5 Mikey the Realtor on 06.09.13 at 6:00 pm

The market is starting to pick up now, we have hit bottom and ready for a catapult through the highs, it is in everyone’s best interest to get in now or be priced out forever. Don’t say you weren’t warned.
======================

Its surprising how pumper like Mikey, and Sherry cooper pumps the same old line. If they were so confident they would of went all in and mortgage to the tilt, and hedge their bets.

But instead Ms Sherry cooper Did the opposite and sold her house/s while stating a year ago when RE was at its highs that is was a good time to buy. If you listened to her and bought in Richmond, West end, you would of sold you “AZZ” to the Bankers and they will be pumping you dry for the next 50 to 100 years.

Welcome to your new life as a DEBT Slave chained to the money pit (Tom Hanks – the house)

#72 nubbers on 06.10.13 at 4:05 am

Axel & Co, if you are ever thinking of having children, have you checked the schools in the area that you are going to be forced to stay in for 15-20 years?

#73 Small Town Steve on 06.10.13 at 4:18 am

#21
Did your tinfoil hat kit come with a Geiger counter?
If you live in an area with old bedrock you will get more radiation from Radon gas.
If you smoke a pack/day and your tobacco is grown in red soil your lungs will pick up the equivalent dose of 5R/year from Polonium 220 (a radon daughter that emits alpha particles this is also a large contributing factor why many get lung cancer).
If you are a frequent flier you are getting bombarded by cosmic radiation..

Wanna guess how much uranium and plutonium is released into the atmosphere?
If you were able to use a cyclonic type centerfuge on the smoke stack of your average coal fired electrical co-gen plant that is used in the USA (60% of the USA electricity is from coal fired generators btw) and collected the trace uranium in order to use it in a pebble reactor that reactor would produce 10000X the thermal output of the coal you are burning for the entire YEAR…but they are not and we get to breathe it allll in..

Now go hide in your bunker.

#74 Dienekes on 06.10.13 at 4:19 am

Is not Berkshires huge cash position, largest ever, due to excessive profits, largely because of the US recovery?
A google search yields those results.
I doubt they are selling anything, if anything, I am sure they are looking to buy.

#75 Dienekes on 06.10.13 at 4:23 am

I find it funny that when Berkshire has huge cash the assumption is they are selling. Stock doomers always forget the profits and dividends.

#76 Rob aka Captian and Mrs Slow on 06.10.13 at 5:55 am

I do understand the desire to own, being a tenant (at times) sucks, the problem is Toronto is expensive, and even with a decline will remain so, it’s life in the big city

What is one to do, well move elsewhere I suppose.

BTW we get best of both worlds, have a condo with great tenants and we rent in another city (for work) Also Garth just set up a private pension (here in Germany) and did exactly what you said a balanced portfolio. 30% stocks 30% bonds 30% Europe and 10% emerging markets

#77 Onthesidelines on 06.10.13 at 6:52 am

#69Small Town Steve on 06.10.13 at 4:18 am
#21
“Did your tinfoil hat kit come with a Geiger counter?
If you live in an area with old bedrock you will get more radiation from Radon gas.”

You’re not well informed, Small town Steve. There is a huge difference between injested hot particles which then affect the internal tissue and organs and the relatively less harmful external exposure. The big lie that came out of Chernobyl and Fukushima is that there is no difference between the two.

Do some research. You could do worse than start at Dennis Riches’ Nuclear Free 2045 Blog. http://nf2045.blogspot.jp/

#78 Sarabeth on 06.10.13 at 7:02 am

I am recently widowed and on a fixed income. I have been looking for a better place to live for some time.

And, I just found and rented a nice 7 room 1000 sq ft apartment in a duplex house in Hamilton. It is WAY bigger than a single person really needs… but I am very happy to have the extra space.

$1,000.00/month INCLUSIVE. 3 good sized bed rooms with closets, kitchen, dining, and a large bonus room that I will be using for a studio…large windows in all the bed rooms and spare room too. It has a very large patio with more than enough room to grow veggies and have a bar-b-q. Off street parking is included. All this on a tree lined dead end street with well kept homes in a good part of the city near the university.

No taxes, no maintenance, snow removal and lawn maintenance is covered too…I am getting too old to shovel snow or to push a lawn mower. The land lord is having it professionally cleaned and painted and allowed me to pick the paint. And only one young family as a neighbor.

I take possession on July 1. Renting is the way to go. I am a happy camper.

#79 Victor V on 06.10.13 at 7:43 am

Would you pay $173,000 over asking for this midtown Toronto home?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/20130531theglobeandmaildonedealsto322fairlawnmp4/article12392721/

#80 young & foolish on 06.10.13 at 8:58 am

Housing, can’t live without it …. ! Somebody’s making money in RE, that’s for sure. But who is it, and under what circumstances?

#81 gotthardbahn on 06.10.13 at 9:06 am

Hey Garth –

It is very easy to show some absurdly-priced carriage trade-type homes and attempt to make it appear representative of the RE market as a whole. Nice try, sir!

Reality is that the Canadian economy is doing extremely well, and THAT is why bond yields are rising. Did you see the Canadian jobs numbers last week? Huge, and almost all in the private sector, too. Did you see the Housing Starts number this AM? It came in above 200K m/m, 12.4% above consensus.

I don’t get it, Garth. You’re a smart guy and you see all these numbers too – BTW, I know what exchange-traded funds and real estate investment trusts are. Do you understand present value of an annuity with a balloon payment? – and yet you are SO invested in this RE meltdown story. No sweat posting blogs of people who agree with your take on things, but perhaps you are talking to the converted, and quoting them too. JMHO

#82 frank le skank on 06.10.13 at 9:35 am

Preliminary housing starts (Jan-May 2012-2013)

Toronto -3% for single detached
Toronto -46% for all others
Toronto -38% total

Vancouver 18% for single detached
Vancouver -18% for all others
Vancouver -12% total

Montreal -26% for single detached
Montreal -30% for all others
Montreal -29% total

Calgary 10% for single detached
Calgary -40% for all others
Calgary -21% total

Apparently this is what a soft landing looks like!!

#83 Penny Henny on 06.10.13 at 9:41 am

Garth-Take advice from the most self-absorbed generation ever? Priceless.
This means you right? Garth?

I didn’t make you come here. — Garth

#84 jess on 06.10.13 at 9:48 am

george

” Let the people know now. No more secret contracts and other deals” or is the “Disney Plan” more the flavour?

A Conservative Republican Ordered The IRS Tea Party Investigations

Nader “Told Us So” about the Problems with the San Onofre Nuke Plant
June 7, 2013 – California Edison announced today that it will be permanently shutting down its troubled San Onofre nuclear plant.
http://nader.org/

Bernie Madoff’s comments from jail….”they had to know!”
…a report released early this year by the Project on Government Oversight claimed that former SEC lawyers “routinely help corporations try to influence SEC rulemaking, counter the agency’s investigations of suspected wrongdoing, soften the blow of SEC enforcement actions, block shareholder proposals, and win exemptions from federal law.”

Supreme Court hears the case of Lawson v. FMR, LLC.
sox whistleblower protections for contractors ( fidelity)

=
the Disney Plan
http://truth-out.org/speakout/item/16744-uncle-walts-kingdom-the-fascist-political-economy-of-disney-world
http://www.businessinsider.com/walt-disneys-original-plan-for-epcot-2012-6?op=1

#85 fancy_pants on 06.10.13 at 9:51 am

You can’t buy happiness and it currently isn’t on sale. What more is there to discuss?

#86 LP on 06.10.13 at 10:33 am

#82fancy_pants on 06.10.13 at 9:51 am
You can’t buy happiness and it currently isn’t on sale. What more is there to discuss?
*****************************
Recently I read this…If money can’t buy happiness, couldn’t I just be slightly wealthy and only moderately moody?

#87 Old Man on 06.10.13 at 10:41 am

#75 Sarabeth – count your blessings, as you have made an excellent choice in life from a financial point of view, and have a wonderful summer.

#88 Tom Vu on 06.10.13 at 10:47 am

Re Blog photo:

What NBA team the person play for…?

Must be point guard

#89 Old Man on 06.10.13 at 11:04 am

I am beginning to think that Caesar must love me, or need a tax accountant next year as just received my tax assessment about an error on a certain line which will be a first. Nope am not going to look, as they may have made a mistake, so will file all in my cabinet, as see nothing. I had to pay this year in spades, but the tax department sent me a big cheque instead; thanks for the early xmas present Caesar.

#90 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 06.10.13 at 11:08 am

Alex Jones has lost a lot of credibility.

He is one of those types that will lead you so far, then deflect from the higher probability conclusion, and not go behind the curtain and point fingers.

Another term for him is a 90 % er

#91 Post Haste on 06.10.13 at 11:53 am

Today’s explosive caption on MSM that building permits shot to the moon last month, appears very few are concerned as those who write in here. The gloomy feeling in here is contagious, some of you need to get some colour as your skin is a sickly pale tone – time to exit the rented basement apartment and get some fresh air –

I was totally in shock last week, 3 properties listed on my street, 2 of them for over 3 months – and just like that, all 3 had sold signs slapped on them today –

Maybe the market has some more punch then Garth is giving credit for, just saying.

The increase was in starts, not permits, almost all condos. Very consistent with concerns of overbuilding in Toronto. — Garth

#92 Wibur on 06.10.13 at 12:06 pm

What are your thoughts on Gold?
Will we see 1000?
Would you recommend that would be the time to add some gold to ones portfolio?
Nothing goes up or down forever…

Why? What’s changed? — Garth

#93 chomsky, concision, and alex jones on 06.10.13 at 12:08 pm

like chomsky says:

the t.v. format demands a certain type of concision…in other words, the only perspective that can be presented is the one that most people already agree with.

an alternative guy like alex jones, in other words, will NEVER be afforded the time necessary to explain his “conspiratorial” ideas on T.V..

so, he will appear crazy to most one way or the other.

a.j. knows this, and uses the T.V. medium for what it is.

might as well go all-in.

great job, alex jones.

#94 Rational Optimist on 06.10.13 at 12:14 pm

Well, 5-year bond yields are above one-year highs, Royal Bank increases their 5-year mortgage rate (though only to 3.29) as of today. It’s time to start pontificating about how fast rates can go up.

Canadian bond yields tried and failed to go this high a few times over the past year- maybe this is real this time and we’ll start the long climb up.

#95 happy rener on 06.10.13 at 12:15 pm

Yes its sad, some homeowners in Victoria are making less profits than a couple of years ago.But the majority of sellers are laughing their way to the bank when they sell becauses houses have skyrocketed since2001.No worries who bought even a few years ago.Canadians who bought real estate early have made a great and well planed investment.

#96 my thoughts on 06.10.13 at 12:20 pm

So heres the Mineola scoop this am. 1386 Glenwood Drive in Mississauga sold in 3 days. 15 showings 5 offers later. Virtually everything around a million has a sold sign on it this morning. There are still no shortage of people building. This morning I was thinking to myself… can so many people really truly afford all these big homes? The realtors are as cocky as ever. I see no sign of a slow down at all. It would seem to me to just be able to get as many listings as possible in this particular area and laugh all the way to the bank! I’m still thinking that eventually there will be a glut of large homes on the market that people will absolutely have to sell potentially for less then they built it for… because this type of demand cannot possibly last for the long term!

#97 Buy? Curious? on 06.10.13 at 12:22 pm

Hey Tom Vu @#85, which frickin point guard in the NBA reminds you of the all covering, burkini in Garth’s picture? You asshole.

#98 Old Man on 06.10.13 at 12:29 pm

The Real Estate scenerio in Toronto and elsewhere is at a critical stage of denial. Reality is taking its time to make the final blow like a movie or play when the last act becomes explosive when the curtain comes down. The end of any movie or play leaves the audience in a state of utter shock which is thought provoking to ponder the human condition if successful.

A train wreck is about to happen, and my grandfather was a senior CNR engineer. He told me that he can see the car stuck on the tracks a mile ahead of time, and can put on the emergency braking system, but too late for a crash, as the momentum takes over, and all will be killed in the end. Is there a fatal momentum in Real Estate? I will let you be the judge. Just ask Mr. Turner, as he knows.

#99 my thoughts on 06.10.13 at 12:34 pm

Everyone and their uncle is a glorified house builder. Everyone is trying to make it rich in real estate. Those of us that actually want to buy a home or move to live in the area are out of luck. Imagine the quality of the homes being built. I have seen some pretty terrible looking homes out there. Sitting on the sidelines watching and waiting. Thankful we don’t actually have to move and wondering if it’s even worth it. How much is a slightly better school district actually worth?

#100 Ralph Cramdown on 06.10.13 at 12:42 pm

#78 gotthardbahn — “Reality is that the Canadian economy is doing extremely well, and THAT is why bond yields are rising.

Here’s the chart:
http://www.economist.com/news/economic-and-financial-indicators/21578669-household-debt?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/household_debt

About the Netherlands: They’ve got high taxes and a mortgage interest deduction, so many people have interest only mortgages. That and a housing bust explains their numbers.

What about Canada? The biggest lump in our demographics is the Boomers, who are in their peak earning and (supposedly) saving years. So how is it that we’re more indebted per dollar of income than almost anywhere else? And our debt’s gone UP since the GFC — we didn’t pay down debt while our economy outperformed, we piled on more leverage.

You say our economy is doing ‘great,’ yet our unemployment is above long term averages, youth (i.e. first time buyer) unemployment and underemployment is WAY high and our interest rates are locked at limit down. Analysts are talking about the end of the commodity supercycle, and some are worried that massive stockpiles of same are tied up for collateral and speculation purposes. And you figure we’re going to get rich selling and building each other houses? I won’t be joining you in that trade.

#101 Sarabeth on 06.10.13 at 12:44 pm

#84 Old Man ~ Thank you kind sir. I DO consider myself lucky… :-D

#102 Realtor on 06.10.13 at 12:44 pm

I bet its the last increase. Many developers were from last year to begin construction and could no longer wait to start construction before permits expired and before mortgage lenders change their mind.

Take the money and declare bankruptcy

#103 Smoking Man on 06.10.13 at 12:54 pm

What separates a lifer thief in prison and a zillionaire hiding in shadows controlling our governments.

It’s tacktics, methods, goal are the same, money for nothing and chics for free.

So how would a man blessed with a super human brain such as myself advice Obama how to handle this latest scandal.

Leave the guy alone, don’t arrested him, say he made everything up even the power point… Guy will lose credibility and vanish…

Obama ain’t going to do that, they need to demonstrate to all the other would be whistle blowers, your going to pay the price… Thus taking Apple, Google, Facebook down the drain of public opinion…

Nixon gets impeached by planting a bug in a hotel room, today the prez bugs everyone…

No one cares… Hallarious

#104 Tom Vu on 06.10.13 at 12:58 pm

DELETED

#105 bob on 06.10.13 at 1:12 pm

Garth – you might want to add one more to reasons of buy vs rent. The writer already talked about absentee landlord (i.e. one who won’t fix a broken washing machine, etc.). Sure, you could spend $1000 and fix it yourself… Or imagine getting bedbugs and not getting any landlord support.

but the more realistic headaches are the landlords who kick you out. Imagine being in the middle of vacation, or exam studying, or having a newborn, and then getting an eviction notice.

I’m not suggesting buying, only that this is also a very compelling reason to buy.

Rent with care. — Garth

#106 Chickenlittle on 06.10.13 at 1:29 pm

Re: ADHD, ADD, etc.

Here is a great link:

http://www.wildestcolts.com/psych_opp/c-adhd_fraud/2-sham.html

Quote:

” In what may be the ultimate power play, a victim is, over time, conditioned to internalize, accept, and ultimately, forget about the very fact that they are oppressed. ”

Sounds like most of our jobs!

#107 Canadian Watchdog on 06.10.13 at 1:31 pm

#78 gotthardbahn 

“Reality is that the Canadian economy is doing extremely well, and THAT is why bond yields are rising."

The reason why bond yields are rising is because investors believe (stupidly) that the Fed will be tapering QE later this year. That means there is no guaranteed return from front-running bonds ahead of Fed purchases. Canadian bonds yields in a way act like those in southern European economies to German yields. We've been paying US yields because our dollar is closely pegged to their dollar, that is now overvalued by at least 20%.

The Fed's main problem is that Washington isn't spending or issuing enough new debt for QE purchases. So the fix is: tell the market 'we're tapering' —  bond yields rise — leading to higher government borrowing costs and then… Voila! You have more new debt to buy.

The problem is when more new debt issuance goes towards servicing interest rather then productive spending, you eventually get into a situation like Japan where the math begins to take over.

Don't be fooled. Central banks will keep printing, forever.

#108 Mike T on 06.10.13 at 1:33 pm

2 part comment:

‘To bad AJ can’t keep his gop under control.
That fool is doing more harm than good with those tirades.’

see and I think the tirade will get replayed 1000s of times over. A boring sterile conversation would not. Jones is probably CIA anyways so doesn’t matter. Violence is not the answer to our ‘problems’.

Also, here is some news on Kelowna and the Okanagan:

‘Housing starts slightly down in May’ from April 2013…..so we are down May 2013 from April 2013, not a healthy sign.

‘Preliminary numbers show that 61 homes were started in May. That is down from 87 for the same month last year. But the numbers are much closer when figures are looked at for the past 5 months, which show 267 starts in 2013, compared to 273 during the first five months of 2012.’

spin spin spin

full story at:

http://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story-93332-1-.htm#93332

#109 Old Man on 06.10.13 at 1:49 pm

Now looked at this franchise nonsense, and know of one that that has been in business for decades all across Canada. The average unit throws off $1 million gross a year, and only two employees are needed to run all. The cost is between $300,000 for a small town, and perhaps $400,000 for a larger city, so lets do the math as there is no royalty, and the owner can borrow no more than 50%.

This is a gold mine, as all have become millionaires who want to retire, for their stores to be taken over, or start fresh with a new location. The internet website is first class, and the marketing is AAA, what a great gig for all to discover, and see that 3 areas in Nova Scotia are available to hoop for a great cashflow. :)

#110 jess on 06.10.13 at 1:52 pm

Meet the farmer who sold his land for €1.5m seven years ago – and bought it back for €60,000
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/meet-the-farmer-who-sold-his-land-for-15m-seven-years-ago-and-bought-it-back-for-60000-28812351.html

#111 DIENEKES on 06.10.13 at 1:57 pm

So what housing starts are up in May. Those are not sales numbers. How is this any evidence that the housing market is healthy?
And the favourable jobs report? Most of the jobs are in construction. Tell me the market is good when these things are sold.

Builders starting houses is no indication of the economy, most of these guys in Saskatoon are former RE agents, they will keep building into bankruptcy. It wont hurt them, when the last houses don’t sell, declare bankruptcy on your current numbered company and walk away.

#112 what a bubble? on 06.10.13 at 1:57 pm

Sales are down in GTA that’s obvious. But what is also obvious that there are more new constriction housing starts then there were in the previous year. I am renting in Thornhill woods and in the last weekend I counted 4 new sales offices for the new development. There is even a high rise start up at the corner of Rutherford and Dufferin. How can that be explained with all those evidence of the falling RE market? Are those developers and their investors complete idiots? Can’t they read anything else but Toronto Star? Why are they so confident and feel so secure? Even the mainstream media is overloaded today with gloomy RE forecasts.
Do they know anything that none of us knows?

The whole RE thing looks illogical, surreal nowadays, from everyman point of view, but from a point of view of corporations investing in RE – the RE market has the brightest future ever.

How that can be explained?

#113 sciencemonkey on 06.10.13 at 2:07 pm

@ 106 Old Man, I’ve read on the internets that being a Canadian Tire franchisee is a good deal, but of course you need more than two employees to run it.

#114 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 06.10.13 at 2:39 pm

#106 Old Man on 06.10.13 at 1:49 pm

=================================

QUOTE:

This is a gold mine, as all have become millionaires who want to retire, for their stores to be taken over, or start fresh with a new location.

OK…so NAME it….

#115 dosouth on 06.10.13 at 3:01 pm

Put lipstick on a pig and well…..

Financial lipstick

#116 Canadian Watchdog on 06.10.13 at 3:21 pm

#109 what a bubble?

I am renting in Thornhill woods and in the last weekend I counted 4 new sales offices for the new development. There is even a high rise start up at the corner of Rutherford and Dufferin. How can that be explained with all those evidence of the falling RE market? Are those developers and their investors complete idiots?

Remember all those investors lining up in 2010-2011 for presales that were betting condo prices would be higher today? Here's how that bet is turning out. Chart

The best part is most of these investors (of which VIP REALTORS hold the majority of units) probably still haven't fully paid their deposit structure and don't even have a mortgage because the idea was to flip their unit before completion or registration.

You know how this ends right?

#117 jess on 06.10.13 at 3:26 pm

Novo Nordisk hit by near $1 bln transfer pricing tax claim (10 Jun 2013)
Italian police uncovers tax evasion at Glencore company (10 Jun 2013)

#118 CID on 06.10.13 at 3:35 pm

#101 “Don’t be fooled. Central banks will keep printing, forever.”
======================================
Of course, isn’t it their mission?

#119 Old Man on 06.10.13 at 3:36 pm

#111 Dr. Hoof – do not challenge me as it is M&M, as do not blow smoke here, as know all.

#120 you2slow on 06.10.13 at 3:42 pm

look at those REITS getting crushed yet again today. what a disaster for those who’ve been buying them in the last year. losses all over the place with more to come.

look at D.un simply taking the brunt -3% again today. well… another 30% more downside… at least.

That REIT is down 2.98% in the past year. And you’re excited about that? — Garth

#121 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 06.10.13 at 3:48 pm

#81 jess on 06.10.13 at 9:48 am

Re Disney:

That story is actually quite funny how they target Disney as some Fascist.

If you follow the Entertainment Biz…Disney was an “Outsider ” from Day ONE. His was more a story of perserverance ( but not saying he was perfect )

During WW2, when he was out of country..the Gov’t seized his studio to make war propaganda cartoons without his permission.

In the 1980’s the Big Hollywood boys, who could never stand him and simply bided their time…went into “hostile takeover” mode and ultimately took control.

Calling Disney a fascist(and all the other name calling in the article) is both wrong and hypocritical. The corporation is run by Neo Cons aka quasi -communists.

Disney must be rolling in his grave.

#122 jess on 06.10.13 at 4:13 pm

smoking man

http://www.alternet.org/digital-blackwater-meet-contractors-who-analyze-your-personal-data?page=0%2C2
http://www.democracynow.org/2010/7/19/tim_shorrock_asks_why_it_took

Monday, July 19, 2010

…”After all, if you want to keep the stuff secret, don’t contract it out to private companies who sell their stocks on the stock market. Half the information I got for my book, Spies for Hire, came from attending, you know, investor conferences, reading up on their SEC documents that they file, Securities and Exchange, looking at their press releases. Just take a look at a website such as the company called C-A-C-I International, CACI International, which is the company that sent the interrogators to Abu Ghraib under an IT contract, one of the IT contracts that Bill Arkin mentioned. Just take a look at their website and go through it, and you’ll see. You’ll learn a whole heck of a lot about national security and what’s going on in intelligence that you never would have been able to learn if this industry had not been privatized to the extent that it is. So I think that the IC’s concerns here are really ridiculous. They should probably, you know, ask all these corporations to cover up their logos, if they want to keep it secret”.

SPIES FOR HIRE: The Secret World of Intelligence Outsourcing
Published by Simon & Schuster
Publication Date: May 6, 2008

#123 Cautious on 06.10.13 at 4:21 pm

Short FP article on movement of funds invested in ETFs over the pas month. This was the final paragraph:

The biggest ETF gainer in May was the BMO S&P 500 Index ETF. The ETF gained $353-million last month, for a year-to-date total of $415-million. That’s not surprising considering the S&P is one of the best-performing developed world stock markets this year, posting a 15% return thus far.

Another example of the herd buying high?

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/06/10/etf-investors-pile-out-of-bonds-and-canadian-stocks/?__lsa=490a-d7a2

#124 Basement dweller on 06.10.13 at 4:23 pm

Is it still smart to own REITS when interest rates are rising. REITS are getting killed

Rates are not exactly surging and REITs definitely not dying. Breath deeply and remember why you bought these – for income and long-term growth. Nothing has changed. — Garth

#125 jess on 06.10.13 at 4:26 pm

Revenue Canada rejected secret tax haven files
Revenue minister say agency now has data, credits ‘collaboration with international partners’
CBC News Posted: Jun 10, 2013 5:03 AM ET Last Updated: Jun 10, 2013 3:31 PM ET
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2013/06/09/
canada-revenue-agency-offshore-haven-leak.html

#126 Canadian Watchdog on 06.10.13 at 4:54 pm

TO condos sold in May csv data can be copied here. Summary is here. Data includes condo apartments and condo townhomes.

#127 Mikey the Realtor on 06.10.13 at 5:09 pm

The logic is that immigration is exploding to the upside, they will need houses and many are bringing their logic that if they don’t own property they own nothing.

There has been no discernible increase in immigration quotas. In fact, investor class applications are no longer accepted. — Garth

#128 Smoking Man on 06.10.13 at 5:15 pm

JESS you wrote spies for hire?

Impressive

#129 Info on 06.10.13 at 5:18 pm

Garth, you have no secrets. You don’t know anything in advance. Might as well shut down the blog.

No need to hit submit on your next post. NSA has already taken the liberty of reading it, sharing it and checking the grammar for you. For your security.

Vaseline is in the mail.

#130 FATHER on 06.10.13 at 5:26 pm

mikey the tard should be deleted

#131 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 06.10.13 at 5:29 pm

MEET YOUR NEW BOSS

Buying Large Employers Will Enable China To Dominate 1000s Of U.S. Communities

http://www.fromthetrenchesworldreport.com/meet-your-new-boss-buying-large-employers-will-enable-china-to-dominate-1000s-of-u-s-communities/46999

QUOTE:

And it is important to keep in mind that there is often not much of a difference between “the Chinese government” and “Chinese corporations”. In 2011, 43 percent of all profits in China were produced by companies that the Chinese government had a controlling interest in. Americans are accustomed to thinking of “government” and “business” as being separate things, but in China they are often one and the same.

QUOTE:

But China is not just relying on acquisitions to expand its economic power. The truth is that “economic beachheads” are being established all over America. For example, Golden Dragon Precise Copper Tube Group, Inc. recently broke ground on a $100 million plant in Thomasville, Alabama. I am sure that many of the residents of Thomasville, Alabama will be glad to have jobs, but it will also become yet another community that will now be heavily dependent on communist China.

Some Facts:

— The new Martin Luther King memorial on the National Mall was made in China.

—One of the reasons it is so hard to export stuff to China is because of their tariffs. According to the New York Times, a Jeep Grand Cherokee that costs $27,490 in the United States costs about $85,000 in China thanks to all the tariffs.

—The Chinese economy has grown 7 times faster than the U.S. economy has over the past decade.

— The United States has lost a staggering 32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.

— The United States has lost an average of 50,000 manufacturing jobs per month since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.

— Overall, the United States has lost a total of more than 56,000 manufacturing facilities since 2001.

— According to the Economic Policy Institute, America is losing half a million jobs to China every single year.

— Back in 1998, the United States had 25 percent of the world’s high-tech export market and China had just 10 percent. Ten years later, the United States had less than 15 percent and China’s share had soared to 20 percent.

— The United States has lost more than a quarter of all of its high-tech manufacturing jobs over the past ten years.

— China’s number one export to the U.S. is computer equipment, but the number one U.S. export to China is “scrap and trash”.

— The U.S. trade deficit with China is now more than 30 times larger than it was back in 1990.

— China is now the number one supplier of components that are critical to the operation of U.S. defense systems.

— The average household debt load in the United States is 136% of average household income. In China, the average household debt loadis 17% of average household income.

— The Chinese have begun to buy up huge amounts of U.S. real estate. In fact, Chinese citizens purchased one out of every ten homes that were sold in the state of California in 2011.

etc.

————————————————–

Sad thing is, this is all by design. aka Gov’ts on all sides know what is going on and the consequences.

#132 Mikey the Realtor on 06.10.13 at 5:34 pm

There has been no discernible increase in immigration quotas. In fact, investor class applications are no longer accepted. — Garth

that’s a pipe dream and you know it.

Follow the link, Mikey. — Garth

#133 Old Man on 06.10.13 at 6:19 pm

#128 Dr. Hoof – just bought a new LED TV for my home office called a Polaroid made in China; just a 19 inch format with a base price of $143.00, and it works fine, so could care less where it is made, so what is your point?

#134 you2slow on 06.10.13 at 6:33 pm

That REIT is down 2.98% in the past year. And you’re excited about that? — Garth
_____________________________________________

silliest thing i’ve heard.

if rates are going up, the value of REITS will fall.

10 year Canada benchmark bond yielding 2.15%

if that yield rises over the next two years by 2%, the value of REITS will collapse by 30% +

that’s a mathematical fact.

Patently incorrect. REITs are being sideswiped by rate-sensitive issues. The fundamentals remain intact and appealing. — Garth

#135 calgary_rip_off on 06.10.13 at 6:36 pm

There is no security anywhere. The only security is knowing that death will come. When is the only question.
This being said it is foolish in Alberta to rent a place that the mortgage is the same. There are no rent controls in Alberta. Therefore, your landlord can raise the amount at any time the lease is up, no questions asked. Unless a person is going to live only 1-3 years in Calgary, why would you not buy a place? Primarily to save the downpayment initially. And because rents are the same as a mortgage, likely on a house that is now valued at $500K for which the landlord paid $80K for the cash goes right into the landlords pocket. Only a fool would subsidize these pompous old jerks. The key is to figure out a way to get the down payment and then buy the place. This blog is highly inaccurate with regards to the Calgary nonsense. Houses that in reality are $200K are priced at $500K. This is the insane market that defines Calgary. Either way a person looks at it they will get blasted by the rip off that defines Calgary, either renting or owning the mortgage. Remember, he who leads from the rear, takes it in the rear. And to wait in Calgary signals certain expense unless the interest rates go to 15% and there are too many corrupt government officials with their salary at risk to allow this to happen, so the average dude must save and wait.

#136 johnny d on 06.10.13 at 6:38 pm

@ Mikey the Realtor

I think I speak for everyone here when I say, go away Mikey. Ignorance can only get you so far until everyone notices and has had enough. This is definitely the wrong blog for people like you.

#137 Alex K on 06.10.13 at 6:51 pm

to Mikey the realtor<
Grant you that some immigrants do come here with money but majority come here with shit in order to make a better life for their families< you can see them working at Tims and other minimum wage jobs so stop it already Mikey< tomorrow's recycling in my hood I always put out a lot of empty bottles (South Richvale) come and get them

#138 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 06.10.13 at 7:04 pm

Mikey the Realtor

Re Immigration and quotas and investor application

blah blah blah…

The barn door (closed, open or stolen ) doesn’t matter anymore.

A permanent demographic shift has been established.

Citizenship has been prostituted by a chosen few while many were asleep. Our ancestors are rolling in their grave.

(PS Oh yeah…we can all be realtors and sell what’s left).

If you know anything about History , this is a tried and true tactic to conquer and control a given country.

An unfortunate comment to make in a country where we are all immigrants. But there is a bright spot. It was your last. — Garth

#139 dienekes on 06.10.13 at 7:06 pm

So the employment gains in Canada are all BS.

http://www.timescolonist.com/business/the-more-unbelievable-job-numbers-seem-the-more-unbelievable-they-actually-are-1.317691

we have been losing 5400 jobs a month.

#140 Old Wrinkley on 06.10.13 at 7:50 pm

Axel,
A house be it SFH , SBS, UD, or Condo is NOT an investment that will return you anything like money needed to retire on. A house is also a money sink that you can spend endless amounts of money on that will not be recovered when sold. A house is a place to live in, and make into a home that suites you and your family, nothing else should be considered when purchasing other than the actual purchase and upkeep costs and your ability to handle these costs WITH income left over for investments in appropriate financial instruments that meet your risk tolerance. Investments should only be made after you have a 9 months “cache” of cash capable of supporting you and tour family if your income stopped for some reason.
Experience!!!!

#141 Canadian Watchdog on 06.10.13 at 7:50 pm

#134 dienekes

So the employment gains in Canada are all BS.

And CPI, GDP and everything else that comes out of that office. Harper knew exactly what he was doing when he cut StatsCan's budget. If you want alternative stats, try private economists who don't get paid to lie and fudge numbers.

#142 Daisy Mae on 06.10.13 at 8:31 pm

#88 Post Haste: “I was totally in shock last week, 3 properties listed on my street, 2 of them for over 3 months – and just like that, all 3 had sold signs slapped on them today.”

**************

That makes me abit leery….

#143 Wasted Youth on 06.10.13 at 10:04 pm

#27 Jan – Believe what you like but it’s the deal I negotiated.

#33 Julia – Axel and I are indeed in a slightly better building now.. but rents are surprising comparable between both buildings.

If you do your research well there is one building in the St Lawrence Market…in all of CO8 actually where you can buy for 307k.. listing is still available on TREB sold conditional asking 310k.

#137 Thanks for the advice – we’ve walked away, are taking a long term lease in another slightly cheaper suite in our building to help save more aggressively to eventually invest … wisely.

#144 Derek R on 06.10.13 at 11:19 pm

Sounds like you made a good decision, WY. Hope it all works out well. I’m sure it will.