It was 2004. Three years after Nine Eleven, four years past the dot-com bust. Nobody in Miami or Vegas or northern California could have imagined that in three dozen months the value of their homes would collapse by half. Interest rates were decent, the economy chugging along, credit plentiful, mortgages swelling and everybody wanted to live here. Wherever that was.
That year, at the height of house lust, the American home ownership rate touched a record high – 69.4%. Minimal down payments were the norm, as were teaser mortgage rates and jumbo loans. There was only one thing young couples wanted to do, and that was to grab a hunk of the national dream, no matter the size of debt that came with it.
Sound familiar?
The latest RBC survey of housing intentions found this:
“A majority of Canadians (84 per cent) believe that a house or condominium is a good investment. Just over half of Canadians think that now is the time to get into the housing market (52 per cent), while fewer Canadians believe house prices will be higher at this time next year (43 per cent, down from 47 per cent in 2012).”
Home ownership in Canada is also at a record high – just a hair under 70%. Almost half of all real estate purchases in the last five years were executed by first-timers, most with high-ratio mortgages and microscopic down payments.
I mention this for good reason. If we’re now on a similar path to that taken by the Yanks (we are), it’s worth knowing how things turned out down there. This week the US home ownership rate fell to a 15-year low. At 65% it’s back near Bill Clinton levels. Despite recent rebounds, prices are still 30% lower than they were in 2006. The median asking price for a house is $133,700, the lowest since 2005.
In total, about $6 trillion in wealth, mostly the net worth of middle class households, went poof. Millions of families now live in homes worth less than the mortgages placed upon them. And a cascading property market helped whack an economy that had become far too dependent upon it.
But you know all that. But did you realize what’s happening with the kids?
The home ownership rate among those under 35 is now just 36.8%, the lowest in twenty years. Yes, welcome to Generation Homeless. A slow economy’s forced an army of over-educated, under-employed twentysomethings back into their parent’s basements. That’s right – just like here.
But a key difference is that in Canada you need cough up only 5% of a property’s value to buy it. In most of the States these days, the minimum required is 20%. That’s created a massive gulf between the kids (one in three owns) and their Boomer parents (eight in 10 own).
Imagine if this were the case here. We’d not need mortgage insurance (it clicks in on sales where equity is less than 20%). Few people would buy homes they couldn’t actually afford. First-time buyers would no longer be the market’s driving force. Mortgage debt would decrease. And, yes, prices would fall. A lot. Maybe even revert to the mean, which is roughly 60% of where they sit today.
This should lead us to simple conclusions. Our housing market’s now being supported by stupid-cheap money and lending practices other countries have dumped. Policies like 5% down and state insurance protecting lenders routinely put 26-year-olds into unrepayable debt to buy assets at inflated prices. Many will never recover. We’ve allowed real estate to become a dangerous, unstable mainstay of the entire economy. And when 70% of families own homes, who do they sell to?
It took a financial crisis to wake the Americans up.
So glad I now rent.
219 comments ↓
At least the guy in the photo got to keep his dog when the wife kicked him out :(
Today it snowed for the first time time in days.
See you all at the bottom of this bubble. :)
Can’t wait for the correction here. And I won’t say first :)
“So glad I now rent.”
So if everyone in the country is better off renting rather than owning, then who owns the places that everyone should be renting from? Just wondering …
Why speak in absolutes? Most will continue to own, as in the US. With potentially similar results. — Garth
It can only get worse here in Canada compared to the US. Glad I rent too and don’t have all my money tied up in a house. It feels like home!
With all the misinformtion out there, it feels like its going to take forever for prices to deflate. Also, if its a slow declation why call it a bubble since most bubbles pop not deflate?? Either way I wish the RE would crash, media reporting it daily, people panicking and endless rows of RE signs on peoples lawns. Now thats a bubble bursting..
I received a call today from a mortgage broker whom I approached 3 years ago. It was crickets for the past 36 months…wonder how she had the time to find a lost prospect? Ya know, considering the roaring Toronto spring market and all.
In any case, I’m in sales and decided to humour her. She had plenty of good news for me and I wanted to share. 100% mortgage financing is still available! The bank would lend me 5% for the down-payment, and 95% for the principle, all I had to do was cover closing costs and CMHC insurance. Also, if your credit score was under 550 or you had a consumer proposal, financing was available; but I could get better rates at the sandwich shop where I buy my veal.
This is going to be ugly…
That picture is of Hugh Jackman filming Marley & Me Too in Vancouver.
Garth
So glad I now rent I was sure that you own your home?
the G-Man wrote:
“A slow economy’s forced an army of over-educated, under-employed twentysomethings back into their parent’s basements. That’s right – just like here…”
Zzzziiiinnngggg!
Renting Rocks! Lots of cash flow and disposable ‘investment’ income. Yup, that so totally works!
Smoking man, he stole the customer list? Allegedly.
http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C:RY-2064139&symbol=RY®ion=C
“RBC Dominion Securities Inc. has filed a lawsuit in the Supreme Court of British Columbia against a former junior adviser for taking confidential data and using it to solicit clients, including those of his former superior. The suit complains that Lance Macdonald, who worked at an RBC branch in Kelowna, sent confidential information to his personal e-mail before he resigned in March, 2013. He then joined a competing branch owned by National Bank Financial Ltd., and started an “aggressive, targeted campaign” to solicit dozens of RBC clients.”
It’s why we write, really.
Thank you.
http://globalnews.ca/news/520569/i-wont-be-bullied-video-of-axed-b-c-conservative-candidate-goes-viral/
Was this how you felt Garth?
I am new to this, been concerned from what I see in housing and stumbled on this blog. Anyway, for awhile now, I steer my conversations with people to housing, and I mention declining sales, stagnant pricing, and people get extremely bitter with me. In Saskatoon last weekend, i was having new glasses fitted, so i brought it up with the woman adjusting my glasses. Her mood immediately darkened, and she became quite cross with me. I had a woman trying to sell me a web hosting service from Winnipeg, and I again brought it up, and she asked me to not say that because she is going to cry????? I only mentioned it for 30 seconds!!
There is great fear out there, no matter what people do to convince themselves, they are terrified, they know they are on thin ice.
IBEW 2085 in Winnipeg has 170 unemployed electricians on there books, Electricians!! 254 in Saskatoon said they can man up a company no problem.
Things are not looking good, and not just with housing.
Garth, what about immigration in Canada? We know that more than 200,000 people immigrate to Canada each year. At least 100,000 of them settle in GTA which represents an annual growth of 1.5%. Is this one of the main reasons why home prices soar here? I don’t think that there is so much immigration in the USA. They have mostly illegal immigrants who are not very likely to buy houses…
The US takes more immigrants than any country. Didn’t save that market. The last part of your comment is too stupid to address. — Garth
Robert Shiller: Home Prices Will Remain Relatively Stagnant For Next 10 Years
Robert Shiller
All true, when we finally collapse it could be worse and longer lasting. I doubt the Bank of Canada will be like the Fed and try to buy billions of mortgage backed securities a month to keep housing prices artificially high like the US.
Interest rates at 1% from 2003 to 2004 were a huge part in causing the US housing bubble. Our homes have been rising since then, only without the correction in 2009. Think of the mess that 5+ years of “emergency” low rates will engender here.
So here in Ottawa, there are ads on the radio everyday touting the fact that you can buy a house with only 1% down!
“Why pay your landlord’s mortgage when you can be building your own equity?”
This can’t end well for anyone that buys into this now…
http://www.bennettpros.com/zerodown.asp
Garth, do you wanna come work for me?
Anyone know how close we are getting to the CMHC cap?
With the slower housing sales, has the rate of CMHC debt accumulation slowed down any?
My retirement strategy includes euthanasia.
Yessir…..its good to not be Dr. Wayne
20% down in the USA? I was watching some show on HGTV where a couple of new home buyers qualified through some program for a new home with 3% down, this was just a few years ago
Does this weblog have a succession plan? For when Garth goes to that Great Bunker in the sky? As a renter, natch – a Bank perpetual preferred share will cover it.
Maybe Blog dog Scott? With a stream of TIPS and tricks? And some hairstyling advice on offer?
Was out this weekend with a financial advisor who is also VP of the institution. He has sold his house to “greater fool” this spring in T.O. Told us he was waiting a couple of years. Out of 11 of us guys out with him, nobody even questioned why.
Also, got my latest copy of Canadian Business which is titled, The 1.9% Mortgage (Why mortgage rates will go even lower, whether the government likes it or not)
[…] It was 2004. Three years after Nine Eleven, four years past the dot-com bust. Nobody in Miami or Vegas or northern California could have imagined that in three dozen months the value of their homes would collapse by half. Interest rates were decent, the economy chugging along, credit plentiful, mortgages swelling and everybody wanted to live here. Wherever that was. Continue reading → […]
“The home ownership rate among those under 35 is now just 36.8%, the lowest in twenty years. Yes, welcome to Generation Homeless. A slow economy’s forced an army of over-educated, under-employed twentysomethings back into their parent’s basements. That’s right – just like here.”
The delusional thinking is you can’t loose investing in one’s education (i.e formal) and real estate (residential). Both industries were/are heavily promoted by the industry and subsidized by the gov.. All of the above created heavy demand and increase in prices/cost. Now with bubble in RE burst in USA, how do the kids with 50-100K loans with crappy job prospects could possibly afford homes even at drastically reduced prices.
Now I finally know the reason for converting so many basements in Toronto into apartments.
#71 Toronto CA on 04.29.13 at 10:58 pm and #85 ARTLUKM on 04.30.13 at 12:00 am
in response to #45 Bottoms_Up on 04.29.13 at 9:37 pm
– excellent responses to an idiot who probably never lived and worked in USA, who knows maybe never really visited. At least one can obtain and carry a hand gun down there to protect yourself. I worked in health care on both sides and their both wasteful in their own ways and manipulated by big pharma and other interests. You want better Health Care try Swiss system.
#79 Craig on 04.29.13 at 11:35 pm
si senor – super seriously deluded. You know that semi in TO at Bloor/Ossington or on Danforth is equal in aspirational value to NY townhouse on 46th street.
Now how come a RE lawyer and surveyor services are three times what it costs in US. It costs 600-800$ for a lawyer fees when selling your house in CT. I hear in TO it is 1800$. Surveyor 400-500$ to stake a 1ac. lot in CT, In ON same service 1200-1600. Can anyone explain?
“Everyone is free to moan about central bank policy which they can neither control nor influence. Or, they can structure their lives, as people always have, to adapt to and profit from, current circumstances. — Garth”
So true Garth, but one needs to have some understanding of the circumstances in order to profit.
http://life.nationalpost.com/2013/04/27/neighbourhood-news-yonge-and-eglinton-grows-up/
A heart warming story of the Y&E neighborhood in Toronto , an area I am familiar with. I was impressed with the story, until I got to the end where the author then shills for 5 different condo developments in the area. Interestingly, 3 of them have a 2017 listed occupancy date, the other 2 to be occupied in 2014 and 2015.
#13 TurnerNation on 04.30.13 at 7:51 pm
Smoking man, he stole the customer list? Allegedly
He’s an idiot for two reasons,
1 You don’t lift the customer list to go work for another company. In his line of work, his relationships with clients should be good enough.
2 he should have download http://www.keysme.Org then prove I mailed myself the customer list. I don’t remember the keep. Famous words in court. I don’t recall..
I have a big Corp client right now in USA… They just ordered 1000 units..
Does no one see my genus… The app was built on a drunken Sunday afternoon.
All one needs in business is a good idea follow threw….. And loyal slaves….
EU unemployment is record high, in the US most of the job recovery is low wages work and people dropping out of the workforce.
US housing recovery is due to speculative investments.
if the economy is 60-70% run on consumer spending, no recovery can take place, except the markets speculation fueled by printed money.
if consumers don’t spend, the economy will keep tanking and even Peoples Republic will start tanking too, since they ship most of their wares to the West
is there enough filthy corrupt foreign money to prop up RE in some places?
-Germany has the greatest proportion of home-renters in Europe, and Germans still prefer to rent accommodation rather than own it. Only 39 per cent of the population own the homes that they live in compared with about 60 per cent in Britain and 69% Canada…
http://www.independent.co.uk/property/house-and-home/why-the-germans-and-french-prefer-to-rent-2291077.html
I have a couple of German cars and German friends, the cars are astonishing and the German people are very intelligent, and i suspect the German people have a bigger brain!
I need to show you bubble heads how to do it. Video tapping every step of the way….
I have an idea, already applied for USA and Canada patients. Need to figureout how to do awith world wide.. Never done that before. Built a proto type on weekend, did the engineering drawings tonight on auto cad, tomorrow going to find a injection moulding company tomorrow, pay for a mould. I next week going to hire a marketing company to do packaging and lay out….
In three weeks after mould made and first proto type deliverd, going to pay an agent to get me in front of a buyer at wall mart…
In a year I with 20 million in in profit I will still be tax farm slaving in what I love doing, be it probably not at company I’m in now as I have been outed.
But my kids will have jobs running this enterprise I’m setting up.
That’s why I’m doing it… Cause on there own with too much schooling in there head they are doomed….
It’s time for a smoky apprenticeship for the little shits, was hoping they could get the satisfaction of doing it themselves…
Not going to happen
RBC surveys, etc. and much of the general theme of this blog is trying to make all of us gamblers by getting us to think about our personal residence is an “investment”.
Your house, should you afford one, is really a necessity as you would pay rent elsewhere. So may as well pay to own something. The lower the financing/leverage, the better.
A second home would be better classified an ‘investment’. Better to stop thinking of your primary residence in that manner. Prices go up and go down. But your equity is beneath your feet and in your own general control. Putting your money in the stock market, puts it in the control of those who whipsaw you up, down and if you look at returns since 2000, you are at best flat, only recently recovering the past year.
So buy your house, don’t get stupid with big mortgages, always be able to afford some entertainment with disposable income. Saving money right now is dangerous with bail-ins coming at some point in our lifetimes. Cyprus depositors just got officially hosed today, yet largely the media blacked it out. Spend your money, have fun, you can’t take it with you.
If you want true wealth and savings, buy physical gold and silver and remove it from the system. Forget about trying to make big interest as in today’s world of investing, it implies big risk. No matter what anyone says. With all due respect, even Garth….
A house, no investments and gold in the freezer. Good luck with that. — Garth
Bit the dust today. I can name three others which are next in line. Stay tuned.
http://www.frasermackenzie.com/
Fraser Mackenzie to Resign as IIROC Member
“Our assessment of the current business climate has led the owners to conclude that deploying our capital in the continuance of our regulated investment dealer businesses can no longer generate an acceptable rate of return. Institutional interest in early stage mining and oil & gas companies, sectors to which we have been heavily committed, has dried up: as has the associated trading in the equities of early stage resource companies. Furthermore, the regulatory cost burden is increasing at a time that industry-wide revenues are declining. On balance, it makes sense for our shareholders to re-deploy their capital. “
Nothing bugs me more when people come on here bitching about there lives, banksters, govt, economy, short people, elite, and The Smoking Man..
The world is so full of opportunity, yet damn teachers took away your creativity, your self esteem, you balls, making you a pion that worships celebrity’s and authority..
Thank god I was born dyslexic…
A house is an asset not an investment.You buy a house to live and raise your family.It could also be part of the lifestyle you want.The ridiculous philosophy that a house is an investment was pushed by lenders,mortgage brokers,lawyers,governments,builders,home improvement companies etc.
It is an asset that usually would go up with inflation and maybe a 1%-2% gain over a long time period.Real estate that rises to high levels and does not correct for 16-17 years is clearly unsustainable.If you only more than 25% of your net worth in real estate, you are at a much higher risk of failing financially.It will also impede you from saving and investing in financial assets and investments that pay income,yield are liquid compared to real estate and having a low to no debt level.
A simple concept people are going to learn the hard way.Some people will never learn and will still make the same mistakes over and over.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100692379
“Growth in China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly slowed in April, with the official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) falling to 50.6 from March’s 11-month high of 50.9, data showed on Wednesday. ”
there is that darn word again…unexpected….. sigh….
http://news.yahoo.com/eu-considers-trade-action-bangladesh-factory-collapse-235641063.html
“The European Union voiced strong concern over labor conditions in Bangladesh after a building collapse there killed hundreds of factory workers, and said it was considering action to encourage improvements, including the use of its trade preference system..”
amounts to a whole lot of nothing…………
Wow. A plunge from 50.9 to 50.6. We’re doomed. — Garth
One more thing, did my taxes last month, they mailed me the slip to drop the check in….. There is a box on the form right abovethe place you write the amount in….
It clearly states DO NOT WRITE IN THIS BOX.
I wrote Why?
My little rebellion, I hate paying tax…
Of course, all of this is just more evidence of the pitfalls of government interference in the lives of its downtrodden citizenry. Easy money due to low interest rates and government-insured mortgages led to this mess. Let the free market reign and bring back some common sense!
@ Blacksheep
Sibel Edmonds, she’s anticipating the great game.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2RCN1w5J80E
#17:
” I don’t think that there is so much immigration in the USA. They have mostly illegal immigrants who are not very likely to buy houses…
———————————–
The US takes more immigrants than any country. Didn’t save that market. The last part of your comment is too stupid to address. — Garth
———————————–
Garth, would you buy a house if you are an illegal immigrant and if you can be expelled from the country any day?
Unbelievable. — Garth
13 TurnerNation:
“……..sent confidential information to his personal e-mail before he resigned in March, 2013. He then joined a competing branch owned by National Bank Financial Ltd., and started an “aggressive, targeted campaign” to solicit dozens of RBC clients.”…….”
Let me guess, this jackass got caught because he sent the data to the same e-mail that he was using for social media or his moonlighting gig.
Too stupid to manage my money! :)
Where are you, Grandma!?
The Monarchs of Money
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=7T_VxdLJdDU
Hi Garth,
Last night was the BC leadership debate. Not one mention of the high cost of housing in this province in 90 minutes. They talked about “the economy” but failed to mention how much of our economy is RE driven. They talked about jobs for young people so that they stay in BC. What about standard of living?
Politics…
38 Smoking Man:
Brilliant!
Don’t ever change!
#10 Anne
Garth
So glad I now rent I was sure that you own your home?
—————
Look back through recent blogs and you will find either in the blog itself or a reply to a comment where Garth explains why he’s not against real estate (paraphrasing) and how he rents his main home in Toronto while owning a second (rental) property further north and that real estate is 12% of his investments. Also, I’m not sure if it was the same place but he’s also talked having just sold and purchased commercial property (a small multi unit I believe). I’m too lazy to search his site for this but its not hard.
I thought I would give my splitting sides a break from the Star, so I picked up the Financial Post. It had an article talking about this very subject.
http://business.financialpost.com/2013/04/12/massive-amounts-of-student-debt-crushing-american-dream-of-homeownership/
Here is a quote:
“We went to school like we were told to do, to join the middle class and be good citizens,” said Lostin, who lives in Washington. “But, if buying a pair of glasses comes down to me missing my payment, I wonder if I’ll ever be able to live that life.”
Gee whiz, if I ever hear another underemployed, in-debt student say that they just “did what they were told”, I will pluck out my feathers!
It (yesterdays I believe) also had an article saying that interest rates would not go up until GDP reached 2%. It was at 1.7% today. I was hungry when I read that, so I hope I read it correctly.
Using BB codes did not work, please delete the previous post (duplicate)
Toronto bidding wars debunked
http://recharts.blogspot.ca/2013/04/to-bidding-wars-debunked-april-30.html
The bonus for this evening: York Region bidding wars debunked
http://recharts.blogspot.ca/2013/04/gta-burbs-bidding-wars-debunked-markham.html
I hope that this time I used the BB codes the right way.
PS: stay tuned, I am collecting the condo data :-)
#43 Zen
————————
#17:
” I don’t think that there is so much immigration in the USA. They have mostly illegal immigrants who are not very likely to buy houses…
———————————–
The US takes more immigrants than any country. Didn’t save that market. The last part of your comment is too stupid to address. — Garth
———————————–
Garth, would you buy a house if you are an illegal immigrant and if you can be expelled from the country any day?
Unbelievable. — Garth
—————————
Yes, unbelievable indeed. There’s nothing to say really.
Garth,
#35
A house, no investments and gold in the freezer. Good luck with that. — Garth
Half the population or more of this country lives like this ( likely without the gold) and they live a relatively care free, peaceful life. They are the backbone of the country on which the rich get richer. they allow the rich to get richer as long as they can maitain their relatively care free life. I fear the day when the rich reach too far in their usual greedy manner and try to take too much, i.e bail-is.
The audience you seek with thisd blog is not those with a net worth less tha 200K, it is simply the rich….
I’ll take my chances with my way of life, you take your chances with yours…
If your definition of rich is 200K, we are on separate planets. — Garth
F is a predatory lender.
#35 Freedom 85
A house, no investments and gold in the freezer. Good luck with that. — Garth
————————
Shaking head and laughing. Wow. Just. Wow.
#42 Godth on 04.30.13 at 9:48 pm@ Blacksheep
Sibel Edmonds, she’s anticipating the great game.
……….
She is very credible, respect and belive all she says… Especially 911 stuff she was an insider…
But sadly the herd don’t care, they are busy watching American Idol, my philosophy, if the herd is that dumb why fight to educate them, and then what. Say you succeed in getting a zillion the people rush the white house. Do you think the machine is going to go quietly into the night. They will fight you with everything they have…. Death everywhere…
You can’t un seat power with out a lot of blood, then you got to hope the ones that take over aren’t as bad as the ones who where there before…..
Devil you know..
Start a business take loot from the herd… It’s way more fun than a revolution….
I’m still seeing sold signs in Calgary, maybe it is indeed different just here.
That’s great you’re renting Garth, now we’re on the same social standing. I don’t suppose you hoard gold under your mattress too?
#38 Dean Mason on 04.30.13 at 9:39 pm
A house is a liability. If you really think you own your house or land than see what happens if you don’t pay your taxes. The gouvernment owns your house you are just a renter with extended privileges.
#37 Smoking Man on 04.30.13 at 9:35 pm
Nothing bugs me more when people come on here bitching about there lives, banksters, govt, economy, short people, elite, and The Smoking Man..
The world is so full of opportunity, yet damn teachers took away your creativity, your self esteem, you balls, making you a pion that worships celebrity’s and authority..
Thank god I was born dyslexic…
——————————————————–
LMAO! One of your best for sure.
Read this April 27, 2013 op-ed by Robert Shiller in the New York Times on the merits of renting and owning in te US entitled:
Today’s Dream House May Not Be Tomorrow’s
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/28/business/housing-markets-future-has-many-variables.html?_r=0
Freedom85 at 53 said
Half the population or more of this country lives like this ( likely without the gold) and they live a relatively care free, peaceful life. They are the backbone of the country on which the rich get richer.
******************************************
Thank you, we appreciate your sacrifice…
Signed, the rich
Calgary prices peaked in 2006 and are basically flat-to-down since then.
Calgary is already 7 years into its down trend. In “real” terms prices are in fact down 3-4% every year as Calgary inflation was running in that range.
Expect Calgary prices to stay flat for the next few years which will mean a 10 year period of no increase in prices.
This is one way you get mean reversion. You can either have a bit drop and overshoot to the down side, or you can have 10-15 year periods of flat prices while inflation continues. In Calgary we’re already half way through that.
Calgary has consistently follwed this pattern by the way. Prices basically did not change from 1990-2003.
20% down makes the loan process easier in the U.S. but the FHA allows down payments as low as 3.5% for first time buyers. Chase Home Finance mentions that ‘some’ lenders will take 5% down for conventional loans; I suspect much better credit scores are needed now than in 2006.
Who are they going to sell to? The exact same people they are selling to now.
Canadian cultural replacement is inevitable both at the top end of the economic scale through the immigrant investor program and at the bottom end through the foreign worker visa program. This will be the consequence of the housing bubble….not affordable housing. I would be happy to be wrong but cheap residential real estate just wont come for Generation Homeless.
#58 souvereigninternational
If you rent a house or an apartment you have two governments or bosses.When you rent you are paying the building’s portion of your unit’s property tax or the homeowner’s property tax in your monthly rent.Also,you as a renter are bound by the terms and conditions of the lease or month to month rental contract.
I said a house is an asset because when you sell it what ever it’s worth minus your expenses it goes in your pocket.The government does not take the total house’s value in his pocket.
If you rent a condo you have three governments or bosses.The owner of the building or townhouse condo corporation you have to pay condo fees,the condo board which you are bound by the condo board laws,rules etc. and the city which you pay your monthly rent to the owner of the property but it includes your portion of property taxes.
What about all the services the city provides which is a portion of your property taxes.Your mentality is like saying see if you really own your body see what happens if you don’t feed it you will starve and die.his means nature owns your body.I can twist your point of view to always reach your final conclusion.
Correction #58 souvereigninternational
This means nature owns your body.
#56 Smoking Man
I can’t take credit for this quote, it was aresponse to a conversation I was having elsewhere, nevertheless:
“Cap’n Willard, indeed… “….I’m….getting softer; every minute I stay in this room, I get weaker, and every minute Charlie squats in the bush, he gets stronger. Each time I looked around, the walls moved in a little tighter.”
I really sense that things are going to get bad fairly quickly (whatever this means — six months, a year, three years, five years?) and that we need to prepare ourselves for this — on the spiritual level, first — and then mentally, emotionally, physically.
This is primarily a spiritual battle “For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places.” Ephesians 6:12
And this is big time — nothing less than a bid for world-wide domination, a world-wide dictatorship, lying and deception on a mass scale. The New World Order — no longer under the rule of law — but the rule of force/power/compulsion/tyranny…”
This…is…going…to…hurt.
Older couple two doors down from me rent and own three cars. They’ve fixed up the patio nicely and have lots of time to bike/relax. My in-laws are the same age. Last year, their monthly property tax & hydro bill was the same cost as our rent, even though they own their house. They spend their free time renovating, cleaning windows, etc. MIL can’t clean all 3 floors and wants to spend some of her pension money on a housekeeper. The lesson? Renting I’m the current market means freedom.
#53 Freedom85 on 04.30.13 at 10:09 pm
The only difference between rich and poor is state of mind..
Hard to get around that one but it’s true…
What is rich to a peasant in the 3rd world, a wellfare recipient at Jane and finch is rich……
To me, money is only gambling chips, I don’t define myself with it, rich is creative people, people that dream and are not afraid, rich is art.
Anyone can fake being rich, it takes a fking genius to fake being poor..
I am trying to lowball a deal in West Van. Divorce sale. Offered just fell through for 23% less than list. guy doesn’t think he needs to go lower, however, his ex-wife sits on the sidelines and wants her share.
people keep thinking there is someone out there riding to the rescue. but there is no cavalry coming. just vultures.
Case and Shiller Say Housing Risks Remain (Audio)
A recent study found that almost two million workers (47%) in Quebec are not participating in any type of pension plan at the workplace.
Winter is coming.
#49 Freebird
Garth has mentioned that he rents his primary residence, but also that he loves real estate and has always owned some.
we need to keep things in perspective. Garth is about getting the best return on your money for the risk that you take.
right now, RE in Canada is a huge risk with little upside. in the states it is different. so he is not opposed to owning RE, just tying too much of net worth into it.
#53
Garth,
If your definition of rich is 200K, we are on separate planets. — Garth
I don’t define what rich is, only where the majority of the population resides in terms of net worth. But I certainly respect those folks and don’t judge them.
Freebird #55,
Wow. Just. Wow
–
#179 Smoking Man on 04.29.13 at 5:17 pm, #183 Dr. Hoof – Hearted on 04.29.13 at 6:01 pm and #89 Blacksheep on 04.30.13 at 12:28 am — Noted. This world would have been a much different place had Edison, Einstein and other greats not been bothered to think critically, look at life from many different perspectives and had numerous failures in order to achieve one success. However, Grantmi and HCWTT have their freedom of choice to choose not to explore other alternatives, thereby remaining slaves.
#38 Smoking Man on 04.30.13 at 9:43 pm — “It clearly states DO NOT WRITE IN THIS BOX. I wrote Why?”
Why not?!
*
Skull and Bones, 50:23 doc. Skull and Bones mentioned here, 0:53 clip Like dubya, Grantmi and HCWTT are idiots who refuse to see the forest for the trees, 2:10 clip “This video, starting at :33 confirms earlier reports that the suspects were trying to surrender in the middle of the firefight, and were shouting, ‘We didn’t do it’.” wrh.com, Boston Similar to 9-11, 5:05 clip Fox-TV, the all-knowing bastion of all truth, says the FBI have arranged for at least 17 FFs (here’s another) so far (probably a lot higher), Russia – Boston; Lockdown in California follows lockdown in Boston; 1:33 clip “McCain is getting desperate. Now they are back to the “We Must Save Them From Their Evil Tyrant” (Reg Trademark White House). Now that Israel has once again bombed Syria, we can expect CIA/Mossad to set off a huge bomb here in the US and call it a Syrian Revenge.” wrh.com; Google Lead-in sentence is interesting; Cops and Tasers Dangerous combo; Conspiracy Theories “We’re not thick. We know what’s going on.”; GE Trees GE (GM) foods, now GE trees; Alex CIA Jones.
This should explain it all
Two months ago the number was around 48 for sale
NOW…
http://www.realtor.ca/map.aspx?&vs=VEResidential&beds=0-0&baths=0-0&owntg=-1&minp=0&maxp=0&trt=2#acr:false;ac:false;baths:0-0;beds:0-0;fp:false;gar:false;pmin:0;pmax:0;rmin:0;rmax:0;openh:false;pool:false;stories:0-0;buildingstyle:;buildingtypeid:;viewtypeid:;waterfront:false;forsale:true;forrent:false;orderBy:A;sortBy:1;LisStartDate:;mapZ:13;page:1;mapC:51.013592659941565, -114.29746627807616;curView:0;curStyle:r;leftMin:false;rightMin:false;chkSchl:false;chkTran:false;chkPol:false;chkMed:false;chkWrk:false;chkFire:false;chkAll:false
You’ll also notice they are not all houses
11 lots for sale which tells you the builders are choosing to get out of dodge.
Owner since 1974…now I’m a renter
Lived through the 80’s and it was UUUGLY
So glad I rent.
It used to be that every weekend my husband and I would find ourselves dropping $250 on some essential for “the house.” Now that we rent, the “home improvement” list includes: jute twine to tie up our compost, a lightbulb for the fixture over the kitchen table, and a new squeegee to help wash the windows. That makes us stellar renters. We actually wash our windows.
This, in turn, gives us a better view of the homeowners in the cul-de-sac commiserating over how much their new roofs are going to cost.
Renting is so liberating.
Hi Garth and gang!
Saw an interesting post via our Calgary realtor regarding condo situation in Toronto and maybe people will find it interesting. The young woman “bought” an option on a condo that will not be finished till 2014 and was trying to unload the commitment:
“You have a piece of paper,” I continued. “You have a piece of paper that is one of thousands that are floating around the downtown core at the moment, and there’s no market for it.”
I knew the project that she had bought into, and I knew that they were a little more than 70% sold. This meant that any buyer who was interested in purchasing a future condo in this development could walk into the sales centre, and have their choice. So what ‘value’ did her piece of paper have, when a buyer could pick from a few dozen other units, via the developer?
I think that question is rhetorical, but I’ll spell it out for you folks just in case: Z – E – R – O.
Vivienne knew this, but she wanted to hear it from me.
“I’d probably give up half of the fifteen-thousand if somebody were to take it off my hands,” she said.
http://www.torontorealtyblog.com/archives/asset-or-liability/8881
Oh Mon Dieu
Tobacco Neanderthal is getting groupies….
Tabernac !
Dunno about other cities but as a result of the Kool Aid fest that started back around 2006 almost all the rental apt buildings in Calgary were converted and sold off as Condos.
The 70% homeowners in Cowtown are pretty much trapped in their own snare now. Even if they wanted to unload their money pit McMansions and rent… where would they go? Talk about being trapped in your coffins with the lids nailed shut.
As it stands Calgary’s existing renters are being fleeced and gouged, heaven help us when large numbers of the 70% can no longer afford their delusions and are thrust into battle to find cheaper places to live.
There will be gnashing of teeth for sure
CBC in Vancouver is running a headline tonight that home prices for luxury homes have dropped by 30% in the past year. The Reason?
The “Experts” say that it is the Banks tightening of credit that is to blame. Yes, even the rich can’t borrow enough to buy in to the luxury market.
In other news the head of the CBC Kirsten Stewart announced yesterday that she was leaving to run Twitter Canada. Turn out the lights.
you say most are 20% down in the usa . not so fast ,now the 0 money down mortgages are back in the states
http://articles.marketwatch.com/2013-02-01/finance/36675179_1_borrowers-investment-portfolio-citi-private-bank
and here
http://articles.marketwatch.com/2013-02-01/finance/36675179_1_borrowers-investment-portfolio-citi-private-bank
we all know how this will end again
The article is about credit extended to affluent buyers. Irrelevant. — Garth
But it’s different here – in Alberta million dollar home sales are up 50% from a year ago – what’s gonna stop this train wreck??
Garth,
It would seem that investment guru, Mark Grant, agrees with your analysis that the housing market is in a bubble. But he goes much further and states that every investment vehicle in the world is in a bubble and when its pricked the end will be ugly. He blames the central banks and their penchant for printing money.
“All this printing of money is creating a market that rests on a fantasy,” he says.
For the first time ever, there isn’t a single bubble out there, but an “entire world in a bubble. Every asset class, everything you can think of. Everything is in a bubble and something is going to prick it.
“The party,” he says with great certainty, “is going to end.”
Monarchs of Money, part 2: http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2013/04/29/f-rfa-macdonald-power-shift-growth.html
The mattress may, indeed, be the best bet.
Garth, if they’re homeless it’s their own fault for listening to some crazy bearded guy on the internet.
#33-Yes, we are. We are capable of fathoming the unfathomable. A quality most Canadians have no use for. Regarding renting, the last time we Germans went bat@#!$ crazy over realestate, well, it did not end well.
Yah, no mention of The Bunker in a while…
Re: #38 Dean Mason
You are wrong. I bought a 1/2 duplex in Vancouver in 2011 and sold it a year later. Put about 100K in my pocket just for the trouble of moving residences. That’s just about a year’s salary for a day or two of work packing up and moving. For me, it is an investment.
It all falls on deaf ears. Didn’t you READ the part about 50% of idiots…er, I mean people think this is a good time to buy and think the prices will be higher next year ?
Just shaddap and pass the Kool-Aid….they are ALL drunk on it. That’s what they get for screwing around in math class. STOOPID.
http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf
I wonder what are our current numbers for those under 35 and boomers?
I couldn’t find those, latest data set is dated 2006.
Garth, I was watching Neil MacDonald’s story about the Central Banks (online of course! Paying for content is like paying for sex. Ditch your cable subscriptions!) and I finally get your blog, your massage now! When the gov’t or leading market indicators go one way, you have to be liquid enough to move the other way, riding on or avoiding market trends. Is that the secret of accumulating wealth?
I think I just blew my mind? (Not the first body part either)
Garth, may I post one more time? Here’s an article from a UK newspaper about how renting screws up children.
Propaganda or proof?
Rob Ford for Prime Minister and Brad Lamb Minister of Finance! Go Leafs Go!
#53 Freedom85
No wonder the country is in trouble with “great” minds like this, stay awayyyyy from the mushroom patch.
Back in the old days circus freeks were created by placing thier bodies in molds at a very young age so that the subjects would grow deformed and twisted. The people doing it to them were known as “The Comrprachicos”.
Today the Comprachicos have turned instead to the bending and contorting its subjects minds so much so that they lose their ability to use the faculty of reason.
Your portrayal of the “rich” being greedy is drastically flawed. Greed is the desire for things that are unearned.
For those who feel that they are victims. You are probably correct. Unfortunately you are most likely a victim of yourself. Your life is your own. It is up to you to make the most of it. In this country that is “mostly free if a little too politically correct” the only one holding you back is yourself.
Look at the Canadian dollar rally! Looks like all the CDN bears are wrong again. oh boy.
#17 Zen
This level of immigration (and higher too) has been happening for decades, even during the housing busts. Didn’t stop them then. Maybe it’s different this time.
Argh! I’m stupider than Rob Ford’s dietician! I forgot to put up the link!
Here is the link about how renting is bad for kids. But I guess being poor is bad for kids too.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/longterm-renting-is-damaging-childrens-lives-8598584.html
Garth, you make me laugh. I read all your posts and most of the comments. Stop after people start offering rebuttals to Smoking Man’s posts. Love him or hate him, he’s On Point. Now let’s show him some BroLove like an NBA center and make some money!
The minimum downpayment should be more than 5%. The buyer should have more skin in the game.
But I think it is unlikely that we see this minimum increased in the near future.
#53 Freedom85
Garth,
what net worth does 75% of the population have regardless of income?
We know smoe people who seem to make a lot of money and save nothing.
Would it be less or more that 200k?
Average NW: $363,202, about two-thirds of which is in real estate. — Garth
There was a segment two nights ago on CBC’s The National on the Monarchs of Money (I.e. central bankers) – google it. Very interesting. They say the entire world is riding a false wave of quantitative easing, not real economic growth. Both stock markets and housing are going to correct soon enough as the recovery is false. Good luck.
#83 Kinkalgary on 05.01.13 at 12:51 am
But it’s different here – in Alberta million dollar home sales are up 50% from a year ago – what’s gonna stop this train wreck??
______________________________________________
Are you sure that it isn’t former multimillion $$ houses selling for a million? Lots of guys in Calgary are pretending that they have a lot of money. What they have is an unbelievable amount of debt.
#34 Smoking Man
I am not sure if Garth will post this or not, but I saw your posting.
Good Luck on you Patent.
If you need an injection molding shop to mold your wigit, and you haven’t located one…you can try:
Auco Tool & Mould
Address:
1335 Morningside Ave #2
Scarborough, ON M1B 5M4
Phone:
(416) 287-0506
Fax:
(416) 287-1643
Categories:
Molds (Manufacturers)
Ask for KC when you call.
I have used Auco many times over the last 20 years.
They have tool building and molding in one shop. Small, responsive and cost competitive. He may have a “common” mold base that you could use to do your prototype, which could cut down on the cost. Or you could get a rapid protoytype (which could be made overnight) and you could use that as your presentation aid for Wally Mart. Up to you. If you need any help with your project, maybe Garth will forward my email, if you ask nicely.
Good Luck.
Mike
The decline is happening but it’s painfully slow in the GTA. It will accellerate soon. Inventories of custom/monster homes has been steadily rising and these became illiquid almost a year ago. Some of these builders continue to build and add to the illiquid inventory. Many have carried large homes over the last winter, and have finished homes they have not even listed yet because doing so will canibalize the value of their listed inventory. They can’t afford another 12 months of bleeding (i.e. building but not selling). It’s a death spiral. Historically, next stop is receivership and banks will repossess these vacant homes and dump them on that market. Places like the Kingway and Mineola will see rapid price drops as soon as this inventory hits the market. Let us pray.
Bang on Garth.
Different world for our kids and homeownership is not happening unless it’s an inheritance (In many cases)
We told out kids we were thinking of selling and their only question was – is there a room for me?
You know things are outta whack when a dump in the GTA sells for $350K
Yikes
Can you please do a month about the education system? There is a great CBC documentary called Generation Jobless which highlights the problem with our post secondary system.
Garth et al:
Nostradameus Le Mad Vlad
This link is for you.
http://www.halfpasthuman.com/clifswujo.html
Listen to the April 20th Link~ 1 hour…make sure you have your tin foil hat on.
E50 – April 20, 2013
Good Luck
Mike
shame shame on the powers that be who created this mess. It was obvious to all of us on this blog back in Spring of 2009 that they should never have dropped rates and introduced 0-40 mortgages. Instead they fueled human lust in those who can’t afford it.
Of course always happy to stroke themselves, they preached to the world how great they were b/c they diverted the global economic crisis. um, no. sorry, but falsely creating GDP through the facade of a RE bubble fueled by debt doesn’t count in my books.
Sadly, they will probably be long gone with their fat pensions by the time the SHTF with JT left holding the bag.
To #87 Sland
If it’s an investment do it again and see what happens.My investments make me money over and over.You sold your house once and that is it.It’s an asset that you sold in one year and got lucky making a profit.It’s a one time wonder that is all.
WAITING FOR THE DOLLAR COLLAPSE…
It’s gotta suck being a doomer waiting for the collapse of “fiat” money. They’ve been waiting almost as long as those waiting for the second coming of Christ.
And while waiting they have to put up with all those pesky and optimistic investors who just keep getting richer. (That’s what tortures them) Damn that S&P 500 all to heck!
Garth, you say “no housing crash here”. Ok, I hope. Then, you say let’s see what happened to the Yanks and we’re on the same path. House prices in the US of A pretty much collapsed on average. Trillions of house equity gone…
Now, are you implying we’ll have a crash here? Can you please clarify this one for us?
One more thing: when house prices peaked there, rates were at a decent level and the Fed had wiggle room to stimulate the market by lowering its rate. Bank of Canada’s rate is already rock-bottom and there is not much it can do to stimulate markets when (not if) house prices collapse. We are so well positioned for a mamma of a collapse that it’s not even funny.
emerging ???
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdGqdtG6Vys
sarawak land graft released by glboal witness
a film by global witness watch as they went uncover to see how (corrupt) business is done
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STpU5FODYs4
==================
The underwriters seem to have turned a blind eye to this corruption.
http://www.globalwitness.org/library/goldman-sachs-underwrites-us16-billion-%E2%80%98under-radar%E2%80%99-bonds-corrupt-sarawak-regime-and-wins
#30 I am in C on 04.30.13 at 8:56 pm
http://life.nationalpost.com/2013/04/27/neighbourhood-news-yonge-and-eglinton-grows-up/
A heart warming story of the Y&E neighborhood in Toronto , an area I am familiar with. I was impressed with the story, until I got to the end where the author then shills for 5 different condo developments in the area. Interestingly, 3 of them have a 2017 listed occupancy date, the other 2 to be occupied in 2014 and 2015.
—————————————————————–
Also interesting to note that Ms. Sandi De Camargo is a realestate agent who belongs to the Toronto Condo Network.
http://ca.linkedin.com/groups?gid=1785664
http://ca.linkedin.com/pub/sandi-de-camargo/28/384/640
At #8: Brian, eh hem, everything you said that this mortgage broker was telling you is precisely what happened in the U.S. years ago. Those practices have most definitely been abandoned in the U.S., but remember it has definitely gone on longer now in Canada than here, including no money downs, ARMs that will reset at higher rates (because that’s basically all Canada has. Even if you say it isn’t true, it is. That’s what over 90% of all loans in Canada are… written into your law, mind you), interest only loans, etc. It can do nothing but end horrifically there in Canada. The one thing that stood out in your commentary, however, is the credit score. Did you say 550 was all that was needed to get a loan in Canada?!?!? Hell, even in the U.S. there was a standard of 620 or higher to obtain a “subprime” loan. You couldn’t even secure financing if you fell below 600. Please tell me what you’re saying isn’t true.
At #17: Zen, no offense to this little immigration-into-Canada argument I keep hearing about. I hate to burst your bubble, but as an example, your neighbors to the South (the U.S.) take more legal immigrants than any other country on Earth. Actually, the U.S. takes on more legal immigrants every year than ALL OTHER COUNTRIES ON EARTH COMBINED. Fun fact, eh? If you throw in illegal immigrants, well, you do the math.
Average net worth in Canada not 350000
Average gross asset may be but not NW.
Go argue with StatsCan. — Garth
#50 Chickenlittle –
” Gee whiz, if I ever hear another underemployed, in-debt student say that they just “did what they were told”, I will pluck out my feathers! ”
I hear ya, but the debt that students are carrying is not exactly ”chicken feed” and they are choking on it.
At #17: Zen, wherever you got your information, you should seek a different source. Most immigrants, by FAR, who enter the U.S. are legal. Here’s some more fun facts:
In 2010, these are the admission numbers for LEGAL immigration to U.S. and Canada:
China to the U.S. 70,863 /China to Canada 30,197
India to the U.S. 69,162 / India to Canada 30,252
Philippines to the U.S. 58,173/ Philippines to Canada36,578
Now, I actually picked the top three highest nations entering Canada by Canadian admission rates. The U.S. was just slightly under double of what even Canada is taking in. Here’s some more, though.
In 2010, Canada took in 280,681 immigrants, all in. The U.S.? 1,042,625. Statistically, these legal immigrants into the U.S. all work and pay taxes at the same rates as native-born Americans. There just went your little theory, Zen.
Sometimes it feels like a lot of the commenters are part of some post-apocalyptic cult from the far future who’ve discovered holy relics consisting of fragments of an ancient manuscript, partial title “How to Get Rich in the Stock” and whose first and most important rule — what legibly remains of it — reads “Fight the Fed.”
Good luck, guys.
At #25: Arshes, YES, 20% down required in the U.S. There are special FNMA programs that would require less, but would demand an excellent credit score rating. The vast, VAST majority of loans in the U.S. now require 20% down. Your program on HGTV from a few years ago is clearly out of date. Besides, are you *sure* those were Americans you were watching on HGTV? about 80% of the programs on HGTV are all filmed in Canada – not the U.S.
FIAT MONEY..
And what can you by with fiat money anyhow? well besides absolutely everything, including, according to the latest research, happiness.
At #43: Zen, you probably aren’t going to buy a house if you are an illegal in any country. It doesn’t matter if it is the U.S. or Canada. Oh, but if you were an illegal in that country, you wouldn’t be permitted to get the loan in the first place. DUH!!!!!!! Where do you come up with your bullsh*t? You’re assuming the immigrants in the U.S. are mostly illegal, of which the vast majority of U.S. immigrants are LEGAL, dumbass. There, I said it because Garth won’t.
#75 Nosty the Nasty on 04.30.13 at 11:31 pm
Some interesting reads, Good Lord Nosty where do you get the time for these descriptive little tid bits of enlightenment? I am semi-retired and I can even find time for all of the stuff you post!
Keep on Trucking!
Truckin got my chips cashed in. keep truckin, like the do-dah man
Together, more or less in line, just keep truckin on.
At #82: Angel, so sorry, but those 0% down mortgages or little down are made ONLY for well-qualified buyers, with proven portfolio, asset base, significant and proven salaries (not stated salary as you still have in Canada) who already HAVE 20% + in liquidity to put down but choose not to, with crazy ass high credit scores. I work for one of the banks that would provide this type of 0% down loan. The banks doing it are owning 100% of the responsibility as these are portfolio loans that can’t be sold off to secondary markets. In total, less than 3% of the loans taken in the U.S. today would even qualify for this kind of a special deal.
Garth, I see you are not a fan of Zen’s comments. Canada does have the highest per capita immigration rate in the world. That would be more useful for predicting housing than just sheer numbers.
Immigration will not save housing. What an utter myth. — Garth
Yah…..lets not forget that house prices in the US are still far below the peak and that homeowners of record are still deep under water on their mortgages. Obama demanded a moratorium on foreclosures and got it…but those are back with a vengeance….even with 3.99% 30 yr fixed rates.
The ‘uptick’ in prices only represent the ‘average’ increase in sales of houses off the depressed valuations of distress sales ….meaning the people who are buying are buying slightly more expensive houses compared to the ROE market 2 years ago…( new subdivisions not housing stock) not that real housing prices are going up…don’t be fooled by aggragte averages….this calculation can be very misleading to the unwary…..like a daytrader without an advanced degree and years of experience in investment market analysis…..bound to lose if you don’t understand the game you’re playing. Fools jump in….sigh.
Talk about fools….is the Fraser Institute getting soft in the head…are they skewing the stats because of political correctness. The tax creep they mention in the new study fails to regard the massive uptick in civil service overhead at the root of the huge increses in taxation. This country is going down the toilet. At least they state that ” Spending is far outpacing revenue”…..thats gotta be a freaking big red flag to those already strangled by over taxation. Ask yourself….what are they spending on when you know that over 100%++ of health and education budgets ( for eaxple) are going out in wages , pensions and perks) and nothing but debt is left over after having to borrow for bricks and mortar.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/bc2035/Keep+costs+mind+consider+your+election+vote/8317475/story.html
At #108: Gladiator, I gotta admit you have a good point. At crash in the U.S., home ownership was lower than it is today in Canada, the American consumer was less in debt than Canadian consumers today, rates were higher in the U.S. as opposed to Canada’s “emergency” rates today that have been in effect for years, and the loan programs were effectively the same as what is permissible in Canada. I’m still not quite seeing how *the* crashes of all crashes is not going to happen in Canada.
#103 mixedmeters on 05.01.13 at 8:41 am
Can you please do a month about the education system? There is a great CBC documentary called Generation Jobless which highlights the problem with our post secondary system.
================================
College Conspiracy –
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCcCbq4iGHI&playnext=1&list=PL0D62E273E99A66B8
Housing Bubble…Education Bubble….
Same end result….debt and broken dreams.
Old siren call” Get a house!…get an education! “
Must we talk in averages…
@Dienekes, post #16;
There are 170 electricians on the out of work list in Winnipeg, and 254 more in Saskatoon you say? So where exactly is this shortage of skilled labour I keep hearing and reading about, especially in the west?
“The Matrix is everywhere, it is all around us, even now in this very room. You can see it when you look out your window, or you turn on your television. You can feel it when you go to work, when you go to church, when you pay your taxes. It is the world that has been pulled over your eyes to blind you from the truth.”-The Matrix
Is the US government staging false flag terror drills that are designed to seem like real life events to pass gun legislation and introduce more police state measures and to demonize Muslims?
Are criminal elements within the Department of Home Land Security(DHS), CIA, Mossad, FBI, etc. staging terror drills using crisis actors? Is the corporate controlled M$M completely involved in these staged events designed to fool the brainwashed masses?
The Gabriel Gifford shooting in Arizona is one example of what seems to be a false flag terror drill! Please watch http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COl8rRcbhsc
The Boston Marathon bombings also seems to be a false flag terror drill designed to blame so-called Muslim extremists and introduce more freedom restricting legislation and to drum up public support for war against Muslim countries (Iran, Syria)! Watch this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0dwc6V9wxc & http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRrKSI4ex2o & http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zg5ARapUcsE & http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7AZXIzAV1Y & http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbqVqI1cWXc & this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFU5YAgqAck
Through their control of the mass media the men behind the curtain (aka international bankers) use perception management to steer the sheeple towards their ultimate goal of One World financial dictatorship! Towards the New World Order as the war criminal George Bush Sr. eloquently put it in a 1991 speech. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=siAFvk5dpc4
Things are not as they seem. We live in a very deceptive world!
Open and free your mind!
Take your conspiracy theories, wrap them tight in tin foil and shove them. No more will be published here. — Garth
#49 Freebird
Garth has mentioned that he rents his primary residence, but also that he loves real estate and has always owned some.
we need to keep things in perspective. Garth is about getting the best return on your money for the risk that you take.
right now, RE in Canada is a huge risk with little upside. in the states it is different. so he is not opposed to owning RE, just tying too much of net worth into it.
——————————————————–
It is clear that is his message, but some people don’t get it. Additionally, although it seems contradictory for someone to be lessor to a property while renting their principle residence, it is actually quite astute. Buying a principle residence means you must move frequently to pursue employment, incurring massive costs over time, or waste time daily travelling to work. People also go through life cycle changes, which brings new needs, forcing one to move and incur additional costs. When you own a property and rent it out, you never have to sell….ever.
This allows you to be free to pursue life interests, have consistently short commute, and a valid investment. Unless you have incredibly stable employment (which few people do) renting makes a lot of sense, even while being a landlord. Garth gives a lot of very valuable free advice, you just have to listen (in this case read carefully).
Bought BBRY in Fall 2012 at a ridiculously low price based on a group consortium of us old guy investors sitting around a table. Based on my advisers direction I Chicken $hitted out half my stock in Jan at $18. I had a good feeling about it as either way I was covered and made a tidy sum. Just sat down with my old guys consortium yesterday and they stayed the course, as the saying goes they’re all in. Now I am thinking my adviser was wrong and there is still some gas left in the BlackBerry Tank! One of my associates used to work for BlackBerry and said this smartphone thing is still a moneymaker. Oh well it is getting close to where I jumped before I might as well ride this crazy train all the way. Next stop $20 ?????
I came across this music video which resonates with me. It is edgy but I admit I have distain for the FIRE economy (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate). They are very few that consider my interests first – I am just a meal ticket. I know most are just tools of the debt monster. The world’s current and contingent debts are too large to ever be repaid in full although the powers that be are going to try to collect or stick the losses on 99%. Nobody wins if our financial system blows up but there will be some who do better than the rest. Meanwhile, we continue with artificially low interest rates which allow us to carry more debt and hope we can grow out of it. It is perverse that debt fuels consumption which makes the economy “grow”. It is only common sense that something will pop when incomes grow slower than debt. There are solutions. I will have to wait and see which is chosen but I have a pretty good idea. I also still think our current governments are too expensive and obscene executive pay is too common. Anyway, enough of my rant and bring on the 3 minute show…. http://youtu.be/3lGhvaqe6YQ
Feel and act like a victim, and you will become one. You seem well on your way. — Garth
#128 Men Who Stare At Sheeple on 05.01.13 at 10:43 am
Things are not as they seem. We live in a very deceptive world!
Open and free your mind!
Take your conspiracy theories, wrap them tight in tin foil and shove them. No more will be published here. — Garth
Thank God Garth,
I will supply all the tin foil required free of charge and for those theorists that are still hard core, there is a spaceship waiting to take them to Tralfamador on Friday!
The article is about credit extended to affluent buyers. Irrelevant. — Garth
sorry Garth but this article doesnt mention nothing about credit extended to affluent buyers why dont you just accept that another housing ponzi bubble is forming .Seems like everyone else sees it but you.
http://www.bizjournals.com/washington/blog/2013/04/navy-federal-feeds-the-bubble-with-no.html?page=all
and here
http://www.cutimes.com/2013/03/27/no-money-down-mortgages-stage-a-comeback
these articles are very recent and i think now that benny is buying them garbage mortgage backed securities(via printed money) off the balance sheets of the banks you will see banks lending more money out again .You are right its a good time to buy in the usa but there will be also a good time to dump for a profit
The first sentence of those articles identified affluent buyers. Your next two are about two credit unions. Irrelevant. — Garth
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/10029752/Lender-raises-tracker-mortgage-rates-for-13500-customers.html
Re: #17 Zen on 04.30.13 at 7:59 pm
The immigrants have nothing to lose because they all had nothing to start with. That’s the main reason for inflated housing prices that and the sheer stupidity of Canadian banks that lend to them. All you need is a couple of families who pool together some welfare cheques and presto instant home owner!
You are a moron. — Garth
http://www.thestar.com/business/personal_finance/spending_saving/2013/05/01/a_firsttime_buyers_condohunting_dilemma.html
Calling Dr. Turner
Ms. Devid needs a consult..stat !!
Note that in true Toronto Star fashion, the article subtly blames the government for Ms. Devid’s dilemma, rather than gently telling the young lady not to take on a quarter century of debt she can’t afford!!
The first sentence of those articles identified affluent buyers. Your next two are about two credit unions. Irrelevant. — Garth
rather than argue id just like to say that i found it interesting that there are still 0 money down mortgages available
Here, too. So what? Stupidity will always find a way. — Garth
Zen, and one more fun little statistic for you. The number of legal immigrants living in the U.S. today exceeds 40,000,000. That’s nearly 20% more legal immigrants alone living in the U.S. than the entire freaking population of Canada, legal immigrants and native-born combined. Immigration won’t save the disgusting mistakes made in the Canadian housing market.
Re: #38 Dean Mason
#87 Sland –
”You are wrong. I bought a 1/2 duplex in Vancouver in 2011 and sold it a year later. Put about 100K in my pocket just for the trouble of moving residences. That’s just about a year’s salary for a day or two of work packing up and moving. For me, it is an investment.”
IMHO, what you did was “got lucky”. Like going into the casino, putting 3 dollars into the machine and hitting the jackpot. Try it again and see what happens. Personally, I would take that $100,000 and leave the casino and not come back. Anyone putting money into these markets today are gamblers.
#136 re: Toronto Star article…
I notice that Susan Pigg is nowhere to be seen, usually these condo articles are her bread and butter.
Wonder if she’s been assigned to the mailroom following last week’s embarrassment?
The “Most Overpriced, Oversupplied, Over-owned Market in History”
The Coming Bond Market Collapse
http://realestate.msn.com/how-luxury-homeowners-dodge-foreclosure?source=Patrick.net
If it is –not– different here, then this is what is happening here in Canada. I have been saying for some time that the reason real estate has not tanked in Canada is because the financial industy doesn’t want it to. So they are simply not foreclosing on mortgage defaulters
In 2010, these are the admission numbers for LEGAL immigration to U.S. and Canada:
China to the U.S. 70,863 /China to Canada 30,197
India to the U.S. 69,162 / India to Canada 30,252
Philippines to the U.S. 58,173/ Philippines to Canada36,578
What isn’t included and I suppose has a bearing on this discussion is the fact that the US population is 10x Canada’s (330M VS 33M) Proportionally Canada takes in a greater percentage of immigrants than the US.
Or put another way if all US immigration was to California (35M) and no other State it would be a similar impact.
#118 Shawn –
FIAT MONEY..
”And what can you by with fiat money anyhow? well besides absolutely everything, including, according to the latest research, happiness.”
I love fiat money, you can buy food, clothing and silver with it. Oops, did I say silver, I meant shelter. Don’t want to mention that other stuff on this blog do we? lol
True Story:
Abiout 15 years ago….Met a fellow from Switzerland, , a chef, who had come to BC and worked up the Sunshine Coast. He said it was very common to rent in his country.
Owning even back then was cost prohibitive, but the salaries were good and people had a lot of disposable income for travel etc.
People should get out of the house horny trance , crunch the numbers, and face reality and get on with their lives. Ultimately we all “rent”…so it becomes a quality of life issue.
in 2006 approx 20% of cdn pop were immigrants
immigration accounts for nearly all pop growth
since 2006 there have been ~2M more.
so maybe 25% of cdn residents are immigrants
at about 12% of the US pop are immigrants
not saying they are going to ‘save’ housing, but we need a hell of a lot larger growth rate in housing than our friends to the south, to house all of these bodies, be they renting or otherwise.
False. Immigration is 0.72% of the Canadian population annually. — Garth
TO condos sold csv data for April can be copied here.
#106 Dean Mason on 05.01.13 at 8:58 am
” To #87 Sland
If it’s an investment do it again and see what happens.My investments make me money over and over.You sold your house once and that is it.It’s an asset that you sold in one year and got lucky making a profit.It’s a one time wonder that is all.”
It is a speculation at best, but you actually need to aquire an asset with the decision to speculate. RE as well as other assets can be all 3 even at the same time : liability, speculation, investment. Not trying to argue just expanding on your point.
simplified definitions:
Liability – it costs you money to use it, speculation – betting that the price of sth. will go up, investment- buying a productive enterprise that hopefully pays dividends.
Canada’s healthcare system is free alright…..but for whom…..NS man told to die.
http://www.nationalpost.com/index.html
100% of tax dollars being sucked up for wages and pensions but for actual hospital expenses…like healthcare…..no way…thats not what unionized healthcare is for. Healthcare in Canada is an economic generator for the unions….not to treat people who have health problems.
Imagine paying your premiums all your life only to be told that you have been allocated to die due to budget restraints….disgusting…….universal health care…….what a load.
Why don’t you move? I’ll help. — Garth
Older couple two doors down from me rent and own three cars. They’ve fixed up the patio nicely and have lots of time to bike/relax. My in-laws are the same age. Last year, their monthly property tax & hydro bill was the same cost as our rent, even though they own their house.
***********************************************
We are currently renting while looking at houses to buy (no mortgage) Our rent and hydro are $1,400 a month, when we buy, our taxes and hydro will be around $500 a month (taxes are roughly $300 and hydro averages to $200) Wonder what your rental unit is like? A lot of people don’t mind working on their house and yard, keeps retired people busy and its fun to make a space up the way you like it. We have 3 cars, motorcycle and 4 good bikes which we use all the time whether we own or rent. Never look at a house as an investment, we, like many others just like to own our own space and we can afford it.
#88 Dorf … I mean people think this is a good time to buy and think the prices will be higher next year ?
________________________________________
RE prices will be higher next year, at least in government numbers (no one can verify them anyway) simply because it is an integrated part of their monetary stimulus. Low rates and rising RE prices are two sides of the same coin, in political terms it doesn’t make sense for them to exist without one another. It doesn’t mean that it is a good time to buy now though… as that monetarist policy is… ( I don’t want even to look for an appropriate adjective to complete the sentence as English slang is not a my strong point)
I am placing my reliance on them praying for the country and all of us up there, in Ottawa – that’s the only hope.
“PIMCO’s advice is to continue to participate in an obviously central-bank-generated bubble but to gradually reduce risk positions in 2013 and perhaps beyond.”
False. Immigration is 0.72% of the Canadian population annually. — Garth
i stand by my #’s , read carefully, i never mentioned annual amounts.
but since you did, at about 820k/yr over 350M total ‘mericans…
Immigration is 0.23% of the American population annually
sp canada has 3x the number of new immigrants on a per capita basis
————————
Your Canadian numbers are obviously wrong. Immigration’s effect on the overall housing market is negligible. — Garth
Take your conspiracy theories, wrap them tight in tin foil and shove them. No more will be published here. — Garth
hehehe
Garth, it’s your blog and I will respect your wishes!
Thanks for allowing my post!
For people who are interested please investigate this information for yourself and come up with your own conclusions!
I conclude you are a space cadet. — Garth
When are things going to change? How exactly is high house prices and wealth in real estate a good thing for common people. If houses were more affordable wouldn’t that mean more cash to spend on the economy rather than putting it towards a mortgage? That seems like a better way for the economy to grow rather than higher and higher real estate values. Yeah everyone is worth more on paper with their amazingly over priced homes, but how exactly is that translating into more spending? Seems like a false net worth of debt, and if you want to spend any of that money you need to take it out as debt against your home. Hmm sounds like that’s what “they” want us to do.
Nevermind… I’m just a bitter homeless 27 yo.
Come on Garth,
It’s like the Cantina in Star Wars here. There’s room for everyone. We can handle the firster’s, the doomers, the conspiracy guys, and the gold bugs all along with the house horny. Most of us are quietly readin everyday to get the parsing of the day’s sermon and we don’t mind a little entertainment as we read down the list. This is one of my ritual pleasures. Let the crazy ones come.
It’s really ok with most of your following.
@ #106 Dean Mason
I forgot: asset- sth. of positive, yet unrealized value (think beyond $)
e.g. renting is an asset when value of mobility is considered.
Hey surfer dude, heads-up at 03:45 . . . El-Erian: U.S. Economy Weakening Yet Again
Source: Bloomberg
1 ALL THIS MESS CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT 2 GARTH OWNS HOUSE UP NORTH MEANING GOOD RETURN DID NOT PAY A ARM & LEG, FOR THE COMMERCIAL PROPERTY HE MUST GET GOOD RETURNS BECAUSE HE IS SMART AND GARTH IS THAT REALLY YOU IN THAT PICTURE IN YOUR LAST POST?
The economy is changing fast, and saw something today that caught me by surprise. A big Metro grocery store changed hats, and now is a Food Basics, so was this to get rid of union workers? There is no place to park anymore, as the crowds are moving to shop there now – what a mess!
The U.S. 30 year treasury bond is at 2.824%,it was 3.25% about 8 weeks ago.The U.S. bond market is indicating forecasting slowing inflation and slowing U.S. economy.The 2.50% U.S. real GDP that came in last week could not move up bond yields.
Canadian bond yields dropped as well but not as much but they did not rise as much earlier in the year either.
#132 Holy Crap wheres The Tylenol
Hey, Tylenol did you even look at the links! Probably not!
I guess you still believe in the 9/11 US government fairytale? If you
DELETED. I warned you. — Garth
#86 Tom from Mississauga on 05.01.13 at 1:49 am
Yah, no mention of The Bunker in a while…
I always get the impression that Canadians are oh-so anti racism. With Germany however, it seems to be pick and chose.
Get over it already!
Your Canadian numbers are obviously wrong. Immigration’s effect on the overall housing market is negligible. — Garth
—————————-
argue with statscan;)
In 2006, Statistics Canada, the official Canadian agency that records population data, recorded that 6,186,950 foreign-born people now live in Canada. Immigration accounted for virtually one in five, or nearly 20 % of the total Canadian population, the highest proportion in 75 years.
Foreign-born people? Like my wife’s parents, who arrived in 1944? — Garth
#158 souvereigninternational
If you have a great deal of liquid assets than you have more mobility and having no debts especially no mortgage on a house works in ones favor as well.If you move very often you don’t need to own a house.I am not a nomad and do not move every 7-10 years what ever the average number of years Canadians move.
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2013/05/the-ecb-will-act-to-avoid-a-deflationary-spiral.html#utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-ecb-will-act-to-avoid-a-deflationary-spiral
“the ECB will have to act in order to avoid the dangers of a deflationary spiral, which could take the Eurozone years (or even decades) to exit. This article from the FT lists Draghi’s possible actions this week, representing a fairly limited set of choices (rate cut, forward guidance, easing collateral requirements for banks to borrow from the Eurosystem, and outright purchases of debt linked to “small and medium sized companies”). Something will need to happen to prevent the Eurozone from looking increasingly more like Japan.”
Got to love those spirals…..weeee…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100694720
“The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity fell to 50.7 from 51.3 in March, coming in below expectations for 50.9. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
In a sign of potential resiliency, the forward-looking new orders component edged up to 52.3 from 51.4, while production improved to 53.5 from 52.2. ”
We are dealing in points again Garth..this one is for you
http://www.robswtfrant.com/wp-content/gallery/random-wtf-pictures/129047897307016734.jpg
Commenter Rob asked, “So if everyone in the country is better off renting rather than owning, then who owns the places that everyone should be renting from?”
Take a look at this research paper if you want to see how that’s playing out in the US.
http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/amir.sufi/research/Sufi_bootheconomicoutlook_20130423.pdf
In total, about $6 trillion in wealth, mostly the net worth of middle class households, went poof. Millions of families now live in homes worth less than the mortgages placed upon them. And a cascading property market helped whack an economy that had become far too dependent upon it.
this is just a huge loss of wealth, it’s not going to happen in the same way in Canada but it’s going to happen
Brian: wonder how she had the time to find a lost prospect? Ya know, considering the roaring Toronto spring market and all.
pretty funny
Dienekes: There is great fear out there, no matter what people do to convince themselves, they are terrified, they know they are on thin ice.
I tell young people who I know, not to buy.
White Rock Mom: Last night was the BC leadership debate. Not one mention of the high cost of housing in this province in 90 minutes.
well this is the year that real estate crashes in BC. Maybe Canadian politics has no answers. Like none.
Axxman: talking about builders: They can’t afford another 12 months of bleeding (i.e. building but not selling). It’s a death spiral. Historically, next stop is receivership and banks will repossess these vacant homes and dump them on that market.
that got my attention Axeman like Acadia U?
Ralph Cramdown: it feels like a lot of the commenters are part of some post-apocalyptic cult from the far future who’ve discovered holy relics consisting of fragments of an ancient manuscript,
yeah it does, a search for spirituality
The American: those 0% down mortgages or little down are made ONLY for well-qualified buyers,
I get the picture that the banks are taking 100% of the risk and they make sure that there isn’t much – risk.
Re Immigration
http://www.immigrationwatchcanada.org/
Graph shows approx. 250,000 “legal” average since 1990’s
How many Illegals?
Regardless…they tend to live in large Urban Centers, and forming ethnic enclaves…so called “multicultural”.
Stereotype much? — Garth
Real Estate – I know a lot about Urban Economics, and have noticed this trend, whereby, family ownership has sold out to the corporations; many of whom are trading on the stock exchange. They have taken parking space as a non producing cashflow asset to build stand alone businesses for added cashflow.
The problem here is for a shopping centre to function one needs a perfect balance between parking space, and as a factor of density too much kills the parking available to maximize the shopping experience, as customers will go elsewhere for a path of least resistance to accomplish product purchases.
The biggest disaster is when a shopping centre has done the above, whereby, parking has maxed out all week, and allow an anchor store to change hats that will flood the parking when none exists with Food Basics. This will become a nightmare in the making, and was a bad business decision, so why did they not hire me on the cheap as a consultant?
My brother in the US just sent me this PBS special on 401K retirement funding, costs of fees and structure. Absolutely incredible it is definitely worth watching. The system is sucking the life blood out of these funds!
http://video.pbs.org/video/2365000843/
#101 axman. I agree with you but it is an incredibly slow downward trajectory. But prices have dropped and inventory is slowly comig back on the market. Everyday something I thought already sold comes back on. The speculators that were lucky to sell the first time around after being on the market for a year… Are building again. It’s like a drug… They can’t make that type of money doing anything else. Te biggest obstacle in the high end homes in my opinion is seeing what the property taxes are now. Frightening.
#34 Smoking Man – During my University days took a part-time job with a small mould making company to earn some money, as on occassion would ask me to work the 6:00 PM to midnight shift working the injection machine with a government contract making bullet packs out of rubber. Now if luck would have it was offered a fulltime position from May to September.
I was promoted to assistant mould maker for the best in the world from Paris on a huge contract from Air Canada to make creamer cups, and the owners bought a new machine from Italy. The guy from Paris said the mould you want me to build is too big, and will not work, as needs to be smaller for the plastic injection machine; they said no just do it.
Here I was with the best in the world, and he had me doing everything from A to Z, so know a lot, and for a proper mould to be made for plastic pellet injection can cost a fortune. I am also available for consultation and will charge nothing, but a royalty fee on the final product for a modest 5% with a contract in place.
#115The American,
You seem to be good with numbers … but by your own numbers Canada is taking in 25% as many immigrants as the USA. But we only have 10% of the population. Therefor our popluation increase by immigration is 2.5 times yours on a per capita basis. Ergo, immigration has a bigger effect on our country.
It won’t be enough to “save” us though because it’s not immigration that matters. It’s employment and the price of houses compared to the average wage as well as the amount of debt we hold compared to the average wage. You can spin all the anecdotes you want, but if the average wage doesn’t pay for the average house then something’s gotta give.
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economywatch/businesses-slash-jobs-sequester-impact-hits-6C9692839
“Even before the federal spending crunch began to pinch March 1, Chi-Yeh Han Boone was already feeling the impact of the budget squeeze known as the sequester.
The co-owner and CEO of Fort Worth Gasket & Supply – which sells parts to the military – said the loss of supply contracts forced her to lay off contract workers filling orders in the company warehouse.
“If you don’t have the cash flow, with a reduction of 25 percent of revenues you have to cut staff,” Boone said. ”
Austerity to the moon…….
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/65e2bb93d630424e87b92c48a8fa2c3c
“Manufacturing activity contracted significantly in April as conditions weakened amid a strong Australian dollar, intense import competition, high energy costs and weak local confidence.
The Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI) fell 7.7 points to 36.7 on a seasonally adjusted basis. (Readings below 50 indicate a contraction .”
The slow decent continues…….
#5 Rob,
I don’t think everyone is better off renting. Just like everyone is not better off buying, but that seems to be the prevailing wisdom. Renting provides more freedom and flexibility, which should come at a premium to buying so that the land lord can make money. But right now there is a premium on buying … it doesn’t make sense. I tried renting my old place out several years back and at best I was breaking even. Until the furnace needed fixing. And the toillett leaked. And the tennents checks started bouncing. Unless property values continued to rise (which they didn’t) there was just no money in it. Unless you’re prepared to be a slum lord and hard ball your tennents (which I wasn’t). That’s why there are so many rental management companies out there these days. They don’t want to own the property, they just want to charge you a fee for managing. Which they do quite poorly from what I hear.
Re Doug in London #127
254 is not # of unemployed electricians, it’s the union hall number in Saskatoon.
We looked at going union in Saskatchewan a year ago do to the difficulty of finding manpower, when I discussed things with the union rep then, it became clear they could not man us up, everyone was working already for companies.
But things have changed now.
Our company has had extreme difficulty finding J- men for years, but recently things seem to have changed. We have been able to find the J- men we need. And it seems the halls have lots of men available (we are union in Manitoba, so I know what is going on in the hall in Winnipeg)
Maybe it’s an anomaly. It concerns me though.
You heard it here first – $ Quadrillion
Gov’ts, Analysts, Guru’s, etc., throw the word $Trillions in debt around like it’s a nickel and have no real comprehension of how long it will actually take to pay off just $1 Trillion, at these interest rates.
So the next common measurement of US Debt will be $Quadrillion and believe me it’s not that far off. A few more QE’s thrown onto the fire, then a jump in interest rates, some actual honest accounting of what the real debt truly is and they’ll hit $1 Quadrillion in 2 years or so.
People are so immune to it, it’s scary. They hear $Billions, $Trillions, $Zillions, ….whatever…and all they ask is “what’s on TV tonight?”
I have no idea what the catalyst will be but when it hits, watch out belowwwwwwwwwwwwww !
#136 I am in C
That is hilarious. I love the picture caption: “Shalini Devid stands a dowtown Toronto on Bay St. she looked at to buy, but cannot afford.” (So much for proofreading.)
I eagerly await the next TorStar article featuring a picture of me next to a Ferrari, captioned “Devore stands beside a Ferrari he looked at to buy, but cannot afford.” Oh the dilema! But who to blame?
The “don’t buy stuff you cannot afford” fits in great here, but I can’t link it because greedy and paranoid media corporations are greedy and paranoid.
At #176: Josh in Calgary, completely agreed. But, let’s also not lose sight of the fact that nearly all mortgages taken in Canada in the last handful of years have been done so at levels of “emergency rates” to keep the real estate bubble churning. Additionally, nearly all mortgages in Canada are the equivalent of what we refer to as ARMs in the U.S. At peak, the U.S. only had about 18% of aggregated mortgages taken out as ARMs. Canada? over 90%. To compound the issue, Canada’s “emergency” rates have nowhere to go but up, meaning there are a hell of a lot more people in Canada, proportionately speaking, that are about to experience significantly higher monthly payments when mortgages reset.
Also, one more note to mention… All this “HAM” everyone keeps referring to is ridiculous. It was fabricated by the RE power houses, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto, to also help perpetuate a false sense of market readiness and market upward pressure.
#156 Sean “When are things going to change? How exactly is high house prices and wealth in real estate a good thing for common people. If houses were more affordable wouldn’t that mean more cash to spend on the economy rather than putting it towards a mortgage?”
A few points:
– paying a mortgage means you spent a bunch of money (that you likely didn’t have) in the economy all at once. Buying a home built with Canadian lumber, copper, aggregate and labour and paying interest to a Canadian financial institution keeps a lot more money here than does going to the mall and buying a bigger TV.
– high house prices are especially good for people selling and getting out of the market… either feet first, or to rent or move into a retirement home. They’re worst for first time buyers, and more or less neutral for traders. So think of it as a wealth transfer from property virgins to older boomers and up, and you won’t be too far off.
I agree that high house prices aren’t good — just like higher prices for anything that Canada doesn’t export a lot of isn’t good. But it’s complicated; there’s winners and losers, and the winners tend to be richer and politically better connected.
#170 Dr. Hoof – Hearted on 05.01.13 at 1:05 pm
Re Immigration
http://www.immigrationwatchcanada.org/
Graph shows approx. 250,000 “legal” average since 1990′s
How many Illegals?
Regardless…they tend to live in large Urban Centers, and forming ethnic enclaves…so called “multicultural”.
Stereotype much? — Garth
=================================
No…40 + years of observations, driving back and forth from Rural to Urban:
Once get past Hope BC, its amazing the demographic shift…like a force field or something.
smoking man the “wider society” to you view as the ‘herd”
… Although secrecy jurisidictions won’t steal your money – they will happily help you steal other people’s money, whether through tax evasion, sophisticated insider trading, complex financial dealings, or whatever. These places are all set up to promote the interests of insiders, at the expense of wider society. This is central to their business model. Their prime offering in this respect is secrecy. In that sense they are badly regulated..”
http://treasureislands.org/the-arguments/
#179 dienekes – yep the electricians union is a tight bunch, but there is a difference, as there is always the God. Do you remember the Cami Assembly project in Ingersoll, Ontario for Japan in the 1980’s? I will not mention his name, as was a drinking buddy with me, but was C.J. as was paid $150,000, as an electrician to manage the entire project. :)
How’s the economy doing, where the rubber meets the road. This stat blew me away –
From Bloomberg: “West Texas Intermediate crude tumbled as U.S. oil inventories reached an 82-year high amid signs of economic slowdown in the U.S. and China.”
Commodity driven TSX is getting woodshedded.
Gong show in the Juniors.
It’s grisly.
Link: http://tinyurl.com/d6qjo8v
Oldman sure. 005 no problem
dienekes: what’s a J man?
YIKES !!!!
http://moneymorning.com/ob-article/schiff-us-will-win-currency-war.php?code=3243
Zen on 04.30.13 at 7:59 pm
Garth, what about immigration in Canada? We know that more than 200,000 people immigrate to Canada each year. At least 100,000 of them settle in GTA which represents an annual growth of 1.5%. Is this one of the main reasons why home prices soar here? I don’t think that there is so much immigration in the USA. They have mostly illegal immigrants who are not very likely to buy houses…
The US takes more immigrants than any country. Didn’t save that market. The last part of your comment is too stupid to address. — Garth
____________________________________________
Look at the out of work and hungry for money realtor Zen. You must be financially hurting?It’s going to be a long painful crash. Many out of work realtors can not even qualify to work at burger king. No joke.
Canadians not following through on debt paydown resolutions
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/04/30/business-debt-levels.html
Comment 190 – 45north
Jman = Journeyman
I’m a lazy typer, especially on this iPad.
Prepare yourself, my grammar is horrible to.
DELETED
..”Swiss banking secrecy was nothing to do with protecting Jewish money from the Nazis: that is a complete myth originally deliberately created in the November 1966 Bulletin of the Schweizerische Kreditanstalt, the forerunner of today’s Credit Suisse. It was circulated deliberately and the myth took hold. No, Swiss banking secrecy it was in response to a French tax evasion scandal. You can read all about this in Treasure Islands,
See also Sébastien Guex’ long article on the origins of Swiss bank secrecy in the Harvard Business History Review of 2000.
…Amid the Great Depression, Swiss farmers’ and workers’ movements began in 1931 to clamour for more control over the banks. Bankers feared state inspection of their hitherto closely controlled financial domain would risk secrets leaking out, and they pressed fiercely for a new law, to make it a crime to violate Swiss bank secrecy. By August 1931, the highly-influential right-wing daily Neue Zurcher Zeitung was attacking government oversight of the banks, and in February 1932 a top banker sent the government draft legislation with a clause making it a crime to violate bank secrecy.
It was the French scandal [revelations that up to 4 billion francs were being lost to Swiss-facilitated tax evasion schemes] that October, however, which really spurred government into action….
http://liberalconspiracy.org/2011/01/17/wikileaks-swiss-banks-and-the-myth-of-protecting-jewish-assets/
#192 Realtors in an all out PANIC! on 05.01.13 at 4:11 pm
Welcome back you crazy laughingcon
Garth you may do your readers a favour by generalizations regarding the housing market. Canada is a big country and so it is difficult to generalize what is happening. This is important so that people wanting to and in a genuine position to buy are not dissuaded. It is not so simple as to say just rent because rents are the same if not more than a mortgage in Calgary. Factoring in job stability, time in city planned, time until retirement and ability to pay if mortgage rates skyrocket, all factors to determine mortgage ownership. Unlike some areas in Canada, Calgary continues to support rip off prices with houses worth DOUBLE what their true worth is. For example my place is “worth” over $400K. What a joke, this place in real values is $200K. Look at the lot size, my neighbours on both side are almost implanted in my backside, it looks like the intro to “All in the Family” throughout northwest Calgary. And the real problem is that people actually believe this nonsense in Calgary. And at the same time most of my neighbors are probably paying half of what Im paying. Dont get me wrong, it’s a nice place, but unless the wages were good I couldnt afford it. It is very difficult to save to get a place while paying rent for some landlord schmuck who just happened to get lucky and buy properties before prices skyrocketed in 2006. So please temper your posts with wisdom because chances are someone reading your blog may save thousands of dollars by buying a place.
Here’s the latest nonsense from the Calgary Herald: http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/commercial-real-estate/Calgary+real+estate+market+continues/8320751/story.html I wonder if Mario Toneguzzi gets commissions from the realtors while writing this crap. People are so dishonest here in Calgary, F.O.S.
I agree with #38 Dean Mason who said a house is an asset. That is all it is to enjoy life because all the things mentioned on this blog wont matter a damn when you are dead, which is hopefully further away than you think because we all are helpless ultimately and at God’s mercy.
#182 The American on 05.01.13 at 2:30 pm
At #176: Josh in Calgary, completely agreed. But, let’s also not lose sight of the fact that nearly all mortgages taken in Canada in the last handful of years have been done so at levels of “emergency rates” to keep the real estate bubble churning. Additionally, nearly all mortgages in Canada are the equivalent of what we refer to as ARMs in the U.S. At peak, the U.S. only had about 18% of aggregated mortgages taken out as ARMs. Canada? over 90%. To compound the issue, Canada’s “emergency” rates have nowhere to go but up, meaning there are a hell of a lot more people in Canada, proportionately speaking, that are about to experience significantly higher monthly payments when mortgages reset.
Also, one more note to mention… All this “HAM” everyone keeps referring to is ridiculous. It was fabricated by the RE power houses, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto, to also help perpetuate a false sense of market readiness and market upward pressure.
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Rates have nowhere to go but up, but the only problem is there is too much debt globally so rates won’t be going up anytime soon.
I guess the question at this point is when mortgages come up for renewal aren’t the rates lower now than 5 years ago? Maybe about the same at best.
“So glad I now rent.”
I sold my house in Toronto. My house price doubled in eleven years. I bought a house in a small Ontario city and paid cash with a big chunk left over. I’m glad I don’t have a mortgage and I’m certainly glad I don’t rent!
Do you have cows? — Garth
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/04/30/business-debt-levels.html
Canadians not following through on debt paydown resolutions
What people say vs what people do: nearly the exact opposite. 65% say they want to reduce their debt, but in the end 75% fail to do so. But that’s ok, they can always refinance, because it only goes up, right?
Not that I give Cramer much credence but Canada really needs an independent internet real estate service.
“Social housing” companies are the “picks and shovels” of the gold rush in housing, said CNBC’s Jim Cramer, and investors are making big bets on these ancillary real estate plays.
“If you want growth, it is this area. It’s Trulia, it’s Zillow,” he said. “In this housing market—finding a house, valuing a house—there is room for more than even one.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100694782
Vancouver numbers are out. Looks like overall Sales numbers, prices and listings are flat year over year. The bubble doesn’t appear to be broken just yet.
http://www.yattermatters.com/2013/05/secret-love-affair-with-vancouver-real-estate/#more-34388
There are those that have a House Horny woody and there are those that have Renters Rage.
The renters prediction of a calamity like we’ve never seen…still has not happened, hence the rage at the dumbass homeowners, that just sit on our investment watching it grow.
Yet the RR folks ridicule the Gold Bugs for predicting a similar calamity, only difference is, their calamity predicts Gold into levels never seen before.
Sound familiar.
RR good
HH and GB’s bad.
So the RR and GB’s are hoping for failure, collapse, Armageddon, locust, drought while the HH’s just relax and sit back and watch the Leafs win tonight.
What the Catastrophe Mongers don’t seem to realize is, if the collapse they are predicting actually happens, then what happens to them personally. Forget the price of someone else’s house and look at these issues; your job, taxes going up, prices skyrocketing, gas through the roof, food through the roof, shortages all around, etc. etc.
Last but not least they guy you rent from will probably be forced to sell the house you rent and you will be dropped kicked to the curb.
Then what?
Careful what ya wish for, as it might come true.
Victoria is also about the same YOY. Although sales are below their long term average, it appears they are higher than was to be expected for April. Listings are down from last year. The dam hasn’t burst there either.
http://househuntvictoria.blogspot.ca/
Calgary the numbers mostly seem to be up, especially prices.
http://www.crebnow.com/april-2013-residential-statistics/
Right now this second, sorry turner nation got to looped at the Duke to come play poker..
There is a chic I would say 30 at best,, she’s hitting on my huge, I say wait got to text my wife… Mean while I’m at writting this post.
I’m bald, my teeth are loaded with plac, gaps galore, age lines of a smoker.
I figured it out, she’s got harry arms, testosterone,..
I don’t do free bees.. But gents get the chic with the harry arms is all I’m saying…
Meet the man who’s selling Canada short
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/meet-the-man-whos-selling-canada-short/article11585150/
Vijai Mohan has made an all-in bet against Canada.
The founder of a small San Francisco-based hedge fund called Hyphen Partners LP has staked 95 per cent of his investors’ assets on a wager that the country’s housing market and banking sector are about to come apart at the seams. Mr. Mohan has amassed large short positions on Canadian bank shares and the loonie, betting their values will fall sharply.
“Canada faces two risks,” said Mr. Mohan in an interview. “Very few people are looking at those risks simultaneously. That collectively presents a lot of opportunity” – for someone looking to profit from Canada’s misfortunes.
etc etc.
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Average NW: $363,202, about two-thirds of which is in real estate. — Garth
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I would think that’s likely a mean average, I seriously doubt the median would be anything close to that (but could be wrong). If it’s median, Canada is kicking ass.
#209 Dr. Hoof – Hearted on 05.01.13 at 6:52 pm
Looks like an X igate employee all show no go… He will lose…
No one calls markets like me… I’m still real estate bull.
#189 Bill Gable on 05.01.13 at 4:00 pm
“From Bloomberg: “West Texas Intermediate crude tumbled as U.S. oil inventories reached an 82-year high amid signs of economic slowdown in the U.S. and China.”
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How about the fact that U.S. now produces 8 million barrels of oil per day?
It took a financial crisis to wake the Americans up.
If the real estate prices in the states are rising it is a sure sign that the americans have learned nothing and still think real estate is an investment and a fool proof one at that. I think the abyss is still to come and americans and canadians are going to find out the hard way.
#108 Shawn on 05.01.13 at 9:06 am
“WAITING FOR THE DOLLAR COLLAPSE…
It’s gotta suck being a doomer waiting for the collapse of “fiat” money. They’ve been waiting almost as long as those waiting for the second coming of Christ.
And while waiting they have to put up with all those pesky and optimistic investors who just keep getting richer. (That’s what tortures them) Damn that S&P 500 all to heck!”
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Indeed. And it will continue to trade higher as it currently trades @ a PE of 14X next years earnings.
Damn… :-)
#35 Freedom85 on 04.30.13 at 9:22 pm
“Putting your money in the stock market, puts it in the control of those who whipsaw you up, down and if you look at returns since 2000, you are at best flat, only recently recovering the past year.”
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That would have happened if you bought a mutual fund that tracks the index and charges a 3.5% MER.
As an example, take a look and see how “BNS” performed between 2000 and 2012, with dividends reinvested.
I would rather die them quit posting on this pathetic blog.
So a few dudes outed me congrats, my masters, they now know, probably for a while now , so as I wait for security to hall my ass out the building I ponder and am proud how well I played the dog role, I even tried to stutter couldn’t pull that off consistanly, if this was a movie, academy award for sure.
The dellema they face, I’m hugely talented at what I do other than YODA I got the market covered, I can see things way ahead off the smartest of the herd. I call the markets like no other..
Would they want me helping the shop across the street. Do they know I have a massive following. Remember bubble heads,
I always told you a top sales men’s value is not what you can do for your company that gets you the most loot, it’s what you can do to hurt them that gives you the most value. Not that I would play that card. It would not be ethical…
But the Hours and hours of abuse on the hand held, ahh what to do in this world of bad press……
Just saying…..
This movie is getting better and better…
Ok it’s all make belief I’m a great story teller aren’t I…
Math question. I own my home with no mortgage. My wife runs a bed and breakfast out of it and we generate 50k + annually in nightly rentals. I built the house myself and with the lot spent $475k. We were taxed $8k on that income last year after right offs as it costs about $10k/year to operate it including utilities/property tax/maintenance. So we net $32k/year or 6.7% ROI. Average income in my town is $22k rents are $1500 for 2 bedrooms. I have steady work at $52k/year. Does this make any sense or is there a way to make more by selling/renting/investing. Assuming the wife could work and earn $22k (avg here) while i did $52k and we had rent of around $1500? The house would probably fetch $400k if we wanted to move it quick.
New terms for condo remediation…
Many condos in BC have suffered over the years with inadequate building envelopes, commonly referred to as ‘leaky condos’
One such building in Kelowna was featured in news stories in 2011, where the strata council threatened to sue, stating their building had no problems and was well-maintained.
From our deck we can see the same building off in the distance, and the top is covered with white ‘shrink-wrap’ and the sides with blue mesh – assuming scaffolding inside.
Strange, this is the same common site in Victoria and Vancouver – but it is no longer called building remediation, but…
“…..NEW OUTSIDE STUCCO NOW BEING APPLIED…”
From a condo ad from Apr 28, 2013.
Maybe the next ad will say: Due to climate change, the building will be covered in plastic and mesh for the next year or two to protect you as a valued customer!
#98
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#53 Freedom85
Garth,
what net worth does 75% of the population have regardless of income?
We know smoe people who seem to make a lot of money and save nothing.
Would it be less or more that 200k?
Average NW: $363,202, about two-thirds of which is in real estate. — Garth
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Interesting stat to know and put into context with your blog and as Canada moves forward over the next decade.
#217 @ me
Having started off our own business almost 20 yrs ago now in our home and now still maintain a home office outside our main one I can offer the suggestion to sit down with your accountant after you do some research on your own and run through your financials. A good accountant can be invaluable. We went through three of them before finding our current CA who along with smart investments in R&D, good consultants when needed etc have been some keys to our growth. But growth and a larger ROI generally means more risk (albeit managed) and some growing pains. Good luck.
#[email protected]
One more tip…figure out how and where you can form some strategic partnerships. Even temporary ones can be valuable.