Doomer update

doomer

In the last few hours the S&P 500, on optimism over corporate profits, hit another high. If you owned an ETF pacing it, you’ve made 11.25%. Yes, in the last hundred days. During the same period of time the Dow has advanced 12.96%, while poor gold owners have seen their rocks decline by 8%. Meanwhile Bitcoins have proven once again that you’re better off trading something useful, like Victoria’s Secret pushups.

Why aren’t the financial markets tanking? Why isn’t bullion bloating? What about Cyprus and politicians stealing bank accounts? How can anyone have confidence when America’s about to collapse, fiat currency’s fading and banksters’ derivative trillions are bringing systemic failure?

Obviously because it ain’t happening. At least investors don’t think so. And a good proxy for that is the pathetic loser, Bitcoin.

The digital currency, loved by those who don’t trust banks, hate interest, don’t want their money controlled by governments or central banks, and love hiding wealth from taxation, confiscation or detection, has just collapsed. It plunged 60% on Wednesday – actually in just five hours. That cost investors, I hear, about a billion dollars. By the way, dear suckers, those are non-deductible losses.

This happened about the same time gold was shedding another twenty-five bucks, and bullion producer Barrick’s stock was imploding on the TSX. While Cyprus was deciding to dump its gold reserves in favour of euros (surprise, surprise), the Bitcoin bubble was bursting. The next stop for its price (now $145) is thought to be around $15. If that happens, it will have shed 92% of its value. That’s a lot more than the Dow lost in the depths of the Great Depression.

That gold and the digital make-believe currency would tank is hardly surprising. As much as the Bitcoin-pumpers and the bullion-humpers have tried to scare people into thinking the US is a house of cards or the Cyprus bank account tax is a template for everywhere (including here), investors aren’t buying it. There’s no systemic failure coming. The US grows stronger monthly. No banks here will fail. Europe’s stabilizing. Corporate profits are robust. Central bankers have never been so pivotal. Like it or not, four years after the meltdown, another one simply isn’t coming.

It should be evident to even hard-core doomers that America’s not going into recession. Volatility on the markets (as measured by the Vix) has collapsed 31% this year – despite Cyprus, US budget battles and that little nob, Kim Jong-un. The US housing market is rebounding. China’s back on track after squishing its real estate bubble. The US dollar will grow stronger, and remain the global reserve currency for a lifetime.

Of course, Canadian real estate will still correct. Our economy will drag. The TSX will underperform. The banks will hire out their IT (like everybody else). And people here will bitch, moan and whimper while they save nothing, struggle with debt and suffer the consequences of house lust. People without investments will justify it by saying the stock market’s rigged or financial guys are sleazeballs. Meanwhile we know 80% of people with TFSAs have wasted them with savings accounts and the biggest-selling funds in Canada last year were the ones mostly likely to melt (guess).

In short, most folks don’t have a financial clue. That makes them fertile ground for fabricated angst. Like the recent budget bringing a secret confiscation of bank savings. Or RBC firing Canadians so it can hire foreigners and ruin the economy. Or, Ottawa’s messing with real estate.

A few days ago I reminded you that wealth is concentrating. One per cent of Canadians have 35% of the money. There are about 200,000 millionaires, and this group is growing in size quickly. So are the poor folks. The middle class is cratering.

This may not be just, but it sure is understandable. Seventy per cent of Canadians have chosen real estate as their investment strategy, often borrowing heavily to do so and at the expense of any diversification. They, like the gold lovers, picked one thing and piled all their chips on it. That is steeped in risk.

A better plan is the one this blog has often presented. Follow the Rule of 90 when it comes to a house. Max your TFSA. Don’t buy individual stocks or funds. Ensure you have balance between fixed income and growth assets. Be aware how income’s taxed; capital gains beat collecting rent. Invest, don’t gamble. Don’t invest solely in Canadian stuff. Don’t mindlessly follow the herd. Know that fear motivates more than greed; one makes you sell low, the other buy high. Love liquidity, especially now. Eschew GICs and ‘high interest’ accounts. Expect markets to correct. Be more afraid of running out of money than losing it. Avoid taxation. Rebalance often.

If that’s too complex or busy, get some help.

If you think I’m full of crap and we’re still doomed, buy a goat. And some land. But Bitcoins not accepted.

254 comments ↓

#1 guelphstudent on 04.10.13 at 9:21 pm

Chris Martenson says that S & P will follow the footsteps of bitcoins or, in other words, crash 40%-60% by the fall. What do you think Garth?

I think Chris Martenson wants to scare you. Is it working? — Garth

#2 blase on 04.10.13 at 9:24 pm

3 bedroom mobile homes in Southern Ontario can be had for less than $50,000. Warm weather, fellow-retirees, access to tons of facilities. Contrast this to living on the cold prairie snow-wind belt. You tell me what aging boomers with only CPP and OAS will opt for.

#3 kreditanstalt on 04.10.13 at 9:24 pm

Ah, the mythical Housing Recovery…is all based on cheap money – IF it existed.

Goldman’s own charts:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-10/housing-recovery-shifts-contraction

Sometimes it pays to kick the tires.

That is your best evidence? Funny. — Garth

#4 Good Authority on 04.10.13 at 9:25 pm

Thanks Garth.
I will take your advice for once.
Tomorrow, I am off to the market to buy a goat!

#5 Tim on 04.10.13 at 9:29 pm

The sacking of Canadian workers at the Royal Bank so they can hire cheaper foreign workers is disgusting, but the larger issues are that Harper has encouraged this to happen by beefing up the Foreign Worker program, which has increased unemployment in Canada and has the effect of exploiting foreigners, and the fact that the banks, like many large companies in the states are offshoring many jobs. The US has hollowed out its middle class and decimated their manufacturing base. One of the reasons the recession is so prolonged in the US is the fact that they have offshored many jobs. We are obviously doing the same thing in Canada and this will have devastating effects on the middle class. Just look at how many unemployed/underemployed grads there are in Canada.

#6 Kessel on 04.10.13 at 9:32 pm

CPD and ZPR preferred ETFs yielding 4.20%. Are these still good buys?

#7 kenken on 04.10.13 at 9:34 pm

it seems that this blog is shifting from its primary set goal – predicting a hard landing in housing
since 2008, housing prices have gone up 30-50% in different regions.
lately everyone is saying a ‘soft’ landing of 10-15% – not far from what Garth is saying too (although he does mention some will see more, some less)
In short, those who have been waiting missed the boat!!
lately the blog has been on other topics like gold, stock, tax … those are nice to know for financial planning … appreciate it!
but then again, is that a way to conceal Garth was not right about the housing fall magnitude!-

Nice try. My views have been consistent. Substantial correction, slow melt. — Garth

#8 chickenlittle on assignment on 04.10.13 at 9:34 pm

Bitcoins fell, eh? I guess the comic book store nerds and computer geeks are going to have a freakout now. Who would buy “online” currency but them? Oh, and maybe the Facebook people. Why not buy Itchy and Scratchy money too? It’s like real money, just more fun.

#9 totalinvestor.com on 04.10.13 at 9:37 pm

“There’s no systemic failure coming. The US grows stronger monthly. No banks here will fail. Europe’s stabilizing. Corporate profits are robust. Central bankers have never been so pivotal. Like it or not, four years after the meltdown, another one simply isn’t coming.”

Garth, I am now going to fertilize my garden with those statements.

A convincing rebuttal. — Garth

#10 Maximum on 04.10.13 at 9:38 pm

Hey Garth, were you aware that some Condo developers in Montreal offer to pay your mortage for the first year when you buy? Can we call that desperation???

Mais oui. — Garth

#11 Toronto mine sweeper on 04.10.13 at 9:44 pm

Garth why so down on Mutual Funds.
Aside from the MER fee if funds are making 7% to 11% what not take that to a TFSA?
Deversify with diffrent funds, finacials, reit’s, resource, etc………
I personally don’t have the time to watch over individual investments nor the capital to have a FA manage my investments.
Mutual Funds seem to be the middle ground for investors like my self…

Fees are too high, and non-deductible. ETFs far superior, and more liquid — Garth

#12 Property Accountant on 04.10.13 at 9:46 pm

Thanks for advice Garth. I would follow your guidance, I’ve been reading your blog for a while now.

I sold my house last year, renting now, own sizable portfolio of stocks, no bonds and no US exposure (my bad). TFSA maxed out for this year.
Therefore I am opening an account with Interactive Brokers (margin account, 2.67% interest on borrowed funds ! – free money) and plan to buy US dividend paying stocks (3-4%) to cover borrowing costs, use 10%-20% leverage and get US currency while it is still cheap.
Does it sound like a plan?

Why not Cdn dividend-payers with better yield and a tax credit? — Garth

#13 AK on 04.10.13 at 9:49 pm

#1 guelphstudent on 04.10.13 at 9:21 pm
“Chris Martenson says that S & P will follow the footsteps of bitcoins or, in other words, crash 40%-60% by the fall.”
——————————————————————–
“His last major market call was in March 2008, before the financial crisis.”

Yaawnnn.

Geez. This guy is another, “Sell in May and go Away” Loud mouth Idiot.
Listening to this Dude, gave me an urge to reach for a shovel.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/p-500-may-fall-more-40-fall-chris-120957460.html

#14 Tom Vu on 04.10.13 at 9:50 pm

Tell Smoking Old Man I have bought all liquor stores within block of his abode…

Bwahahahahaha

#15 RayB on 04.10.13 at 9:53 pm

Garth Bitcoin recovered I’m buying a goat and more gold too.

Bitcoins ended off 45 per cent. Buy two goats. Keep the change. — Garth

#16 Vince on 04.10.13 at 9:57 pm

Were still doomed. Garth you can’t possibly believe the MSM & it’s BS reports that you endorse regarding the rigged stock, unemployment %, & investment markets including precious metals. The only sector that you don’t trust and question is the Canadian Real estate market, (on which you are spot on & I really appreciate).

Your right on Real estate – Thank you
You own Gold – Wise Man
You have great investment advice

Why turn a blind eye to the rest of the short term manipulated problems out there?

The short term will be pleasant, (your right). The long term will be much worse and this will all end very badly.

#17 Happy and Free in BC on 04.10.13 at 9:58 pm

Really great post today Garth! “Bitcoin pumpers and bullion humpers”…haha AWESOME.

P.S. I read your blog daily (for the financial stuff) and have followed your advice. You have helped me make sense of the complex world of investing and I am doing pretty well now – thank you very kindly sir.

#18 Saskatoon-Living on 04.10.13 at 9:59 pm

Loving the stock market posts Garth. Maybe you can convert this blog into more of that, with the odd RE update, since we all know where Canada RE is heading. Great job!!!

SK housing starts:

http://www.thestarphoenix.com/business/Housing+starts+record+highs+2012/8220027/story.html

#19 Keeping the Faith on 04.10.13 at 9:59 pm

raw material stocks of course … and that includes the gold & silver kinds

am I correct?

#20 Real Estate Tsunami on 04.10.13 at 9:59 pm

Love liquidity, especially now. Eschew GICs and “high interest accounts”.
explain.

#21 Publius Enigma on 04.10.13 at 10:02 pm

#1 guelphstudent on 04.10.13 at 9:21 pm
“Chris Martenson says that S & P will follow the footsteps of bitcoins or, in other words, crash 40%-60% by the fall.”

Oh, yes. Well, the S&P has always tracked Bitcoin very closely. So, logically, one would conclude this.

It all makes perfect sense, doesn’t it?

#22 John in Mtl on 04.10.13 at 10:04 pm

There’s a bigger agenda happening with bitcoin that needs to be publicly stated, and this goes far beyond the issue of the financial harm that will be caused when the bitcoin bubble finally implodes.

Central banks hate bitcoin. They hate it because it doesn’t allow them to loot bank accounts (Cyprus) and control the movement of capital around the globe. Bitcoin, in fact, threatens the very foundation of monetary control that underlies all the corrupt governments of the world. As such, bitcoin is a huge threat to the status quo, making it an obvious target for the globalists to attempt to destroy.

Discrediting bitcoin isn’t enough, however. To really be effective, they need to make bitcoin illegal.

An interesting point of view… read the rest here: http://www.infowars.com/how-the-looming-bitcoin-crash-will-be-exploited-by-globalists-to-outlaw-decentralized-crypto-currencies/

John

Let’s invest in tin foil instead. — Garth

#23 Gary M on 04.10.13 at 10:04 pm

Funny how a low VIX, the ultimate contrarian indicator, is looked upon here as a positive sign. To me, it’s a sign that 27-year-old buy-side analysts have been very, very complacent as of late. It’s also a sign that the short-term memory of financial markets is about 5 years, give or take.

I do happen to remember the last time VIX was hovering at around 10. It didn’t end well back then. I won’t end well now.

Volatility is not the investor’s friend. A balanced portfolio’s chief aim is to defeat it, and a tame VIX helps. — Garth

#24 Rabbit Killah on 04.10.13 at 10:08 pm

Obviously because it ain’t happening. At least investors don’t think so.

Garth, since when was the behaviour of investors a part of a logical argument. You make fun of them all the time, and now you cite them?

It would be more convincing if you had anything other than fiercely repeating, “Don’t bet against America!”

Like equity markets, you mean? Housing? Or employment data? Corporate profitability? Smart Canadians have US exposure. — Garth

#25 Victor V on 04.10.13 at 10:09 pm

Difference in investment return. Royal Bank vs Barrick Gold:

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ABX.TO&t=6m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=RY.TO

#26 FTP - First Time Poster on 04.10.13 at 10:09 pm

Has anyone ever wondered why useless math is taught in advanced math classes, but math skills that are useful (budgeting, personal finance, investing) are ignored in our schools?

The correlation to quadratic equations & the abject failure of the middle class is near perfect.

#27 Milionaire Machini$t on 04.10.13 at 10:15 pm

Goats are the new bitcoins! Disclosure: I am long Goats.

#28 T5>myT4 on 04.10.13 at 10:16 pm

Mr. Turner, I believe this to be your best post of 2013.

#29 AK on 04.10.13 at 10:17 pm

#20 Publius Enigma on 04.10.13 at 10:02 pm
“#1 guelphstudent on 04.10.13 at 9:21 pm
“Chris Martenson says that S & P will follow the footsteps of bitcoins or, in other words, crash 40%-60% by the fall.”

Oh, yes. Well, the S&P has always tracked Bitcoin very closely. So, logically, one would conclude this.

It all makes perfect sense, doesn’t it?”
——————————————————————–
LOL….

#30 Smoking Man on 04.10.13 at 10:18 pm

5 Tim on 04.10.13 at 9:29 pm

The sacking of Canadian workers at the Royal Bank so they can hire cheaper foreign workers is disgusting, but the larger issues are that Harper has encouraged this to happen by beefing up the Foreign Worker program, which has increased unemployment in Canada and has the effect of exploiting foreigners, and the fact that the banks, like many large companies in the states are offshoring many jobs. The US has hollowed out its middle class and decimated their manufacturing base. One of the reasons the recession is so prolonged in the US is the fact that they have offshored many jobs. We are obviously doing the same thing in Canada and this will have devastating effects on the middle class. Just look at how many unemployed/underemployed grads there are in Canada.
……………..

I have preached for years here that if you make your living trading time for wages is a mugggs game…

That school trains slaves, owner ship is key…..

The world through out history, the trader, the ones buying and selling are treated like gods, with an under class that serves them.

My message falls on Def ears…

Share holders matter, the resources don’t, and are replaceable, just cause your education made you believe in a false dream does not make it reallity…..

Job = Slave And put as much lipstick on that as you want, won’t change reality……

Open a business…… It’s going to get a lot worse for time traders in a global competing world. Buy and sell stuff…

#31 blinded on 04.10.13 at 10:23 pm

The 1% with 35% of the wealthly don’t have their wealth in Canada, it is offshore where there are no taxes, just ask Paul Martin. The middle class has been losing their purchasing power since the 1970’s, why else does it take on average 2 parents to live paycheck to paycheck today when back then an average family with one parent working had savings? This disparity wasn’t caused by banging gongs on real estate doom over the past couple years.

The 200,000 millionaires I referenced are Canadian taxpayers. — Garth

#32 blinded on 04.10.13 at 10:24 pm

Folks don’t retire on their investments in 100 days in the S&P 500, but a balanced portfolio over the past 10 years can’t hold a candle to gold’s 6x rise.

Gold is not tanking, it’s trading perilously close to the bottom range of it recent 2year sideways trend.

Keep telling yourself that. Then your wife. — Garth

#33 TS on 04.10.13 at 10:26 pm

Garth,

do you still believe that a balanced portfolio includes 5% in precious metals?

What do you think? — Garth

#34 The Patient on 04.10.13 at 10:27 pm

#2 blase on 04.10.13 at 9:24 pm

Agreed. Mobile homes will be a growth category.

#35 Bob the Imp. on 04.10.13 at 10:28 pm

You dont give up do you Garth. Still ranting about Bitcoins like a boss. Bitcoin market is no different then the stock market – run by greed and fear. Just because the currency lost 40% value doesnt mean greed wont push the price back up… oh what’s this? it has already!

Garth – 0; Bitcoins – 2… Nice game chap, tally ho… maybe the next point will be yours!

Iconoclastic play money. Good luck with that. — Garth

#36 blinded on 04.10.13 at 10:28 pm

Cyprus? No, it’s the whole EU:

In the “Assessment of the public debt sustainability of Cyprus”, the European Commission stated very clear terms just what the fate of virtually every European country will be going forward, paragraph 10:

“In accordance with the [insert insolvent European country’s name] authorities policy plans, major financial institution will be downsized combined with extensive bail-in of uninsured depositors, and a set of wide-ranging temporary capital controls and administrative measures.”

New Zealand, Solvenia, Argentina, etc. but no it’s different in Canada…

#37 T5>myT4 on 04.10.13 at 10:28 pm

Mr. Turner. With the Yen weakening daily, do you recommend going over-weight Japan in the international portion of my portfolio to partake in the inflationary rise of the N225 ?

No, I prefer them slender. — Garth

#38 blinded on 04.10.13 at 10:32 pm

The 200,000 millionaires I referenced are Canadian taxpayers. — Garth

——————
Everyone knows these folks offshore their wealth to corporations that don’t pay taxes to the Canadian gov, compounded that adds up quickly. Sure they pay taxes on income they pay themselves in Canada, but they also have lawyers to manage the loopholes on that, taxes are for little people – the other 99%

Sigh. — Garth

#39 Fiscal Cliff on 04.10.13 at 10:33 pm

Garth, your mantra ‘traditional demand areas would be largely spared’ is erroneous. There may be ‘newer’ demand areas that experience smaller declines simply because they recently became ‘demand areas’. So called ‘traditional demand areas’ will not be spared unless their relevant average home owner incomes increased substantially during the last 10-12 years. I’ve been a renter and a home owner in the beaches area for nearly 30 years. The beaches area was not spared from the 1990 to 1996 28% average price decline in Toronto.

Let’s see. But if you are expecting these hoods to be 40% off, you’ll die waiting. — Garth

#40 The Prophet Elijah on 04.10.13 at 10:34 pm

Speaking of don’t mindlessly follow the heard:

They have been bashing gold for 3 days straight

They saved the biggest lie for today

Throw in some money centre banks front running the fed minutes and you have

highly unethical operations

(Kitco News) – A spokesperson for the Central Bank of Cyprus told the Cyprus News Agency (CNA) that reports of the $523 million gold sale have not been, “raised, discussed or debated,” with the bank’s board of directors.

Aliki Stylianou told CNA this Wednesday after reports on Reuters surfaced that Cyprus officials had agreed to sell around 400 million euros in excess gold reserves to contribute to the country’s bailout. Stylianou said that the gold sale was, “never discussed nor are there current or future plans to do so on the board’s agenda.” Reuters based its story on a draft report from the European Commission which assessed the nation’s financing needs.

News of Cyprus’ planned sale helped drive gold down the most in five months. Gold futures for June delivery fell 1.8 percent to settle at $1,558.80 an ounce at 1:38 p.m. on the Comex in New York, the biggest drop for a most-active contract since Nov. 2.

#41 Milionaire Machini$t on 04.10.13 at 10:34 pm

#21 John: Of course they will make bitcoins illegal IF it really catches on, just as living uniquely by barter is….

Personally, I would not buy bitcoins if they came with 3 free Montreal condos for each 10,000$ transaction, but goats and bartering on the other hand….

#42 The Prophet Elijah on 04.10.13 at 10:35 pm

Tick tock tick tock the US debt clock is now approaching $17 trillion. Which is as ok as those loading up on debt to buy houses, I guess.

#43 Devore on 04.10.13 at 10:35 pm

#9 totalinvestor

Garth, I am now going to fertilize my garden with those statements.

Doesn’t seem to be stopping you from flogging your web site here.

#44 Math....man on 04.10.13 at 10:36 pm

What am I;

I failed grade 9 math, yet I advise people on their largest financial investment

I don’t know what illiquidity has to do with real estate, we have the Great Lakes.

I can make up numbers and promise sure fire returns without any proof or fear of punishment

I don’t think it is a problem to make 40k a year and have a 350k mortgage

My leased BMW takes premium gas, I have not made a sale in months, so I’m now riding the rocket

I am a ….

#45 The Prophet Elijah on 04.10.13 at 10:36 pm

As for Barrick tanking, that’s their own issues with their Chilean project. Great buying opportunity for the smart ones.

#46 KommyKim on 04.10.13 at 10:38 pm

RE: #6 Kessel on 04.10.13 at 9:32 pm
CPD and ZPR preferred ETFs yielding 4.20%. Are these still good buys?

I’ve recently bought some ZPR. It is less sensitive to interest rate rises than CPD. CPD has too many perpetual shares for my liking. Each to his own though.

#47 The Prophet Elijah on 04.10.13 at 10:39 pm

DELETED. Over your quota, dude. — Garth

#48 MarcFromOttawa on 04.10.13 at 10:40 pm

If Amanda Lang and Amazonian women have a debate over monetary policy, who wins?

#49 wassup on 04.10.13 at 10:41 pm

Wait till next months’ stats come out. The spring was strong, I agree. Last month, business and consumer activity started to wane. Just like the RE stats were supporting the RE agents with the numbers on a rolling basis for a year, the last six months are supporting economic indicators on a rolling basis. Current activity is not healthy…like walking around with a headache.

Jobs created last month and the business activity I experience internationally, south of the border and locally has been spotty and reflects the job market report last month.

I am disagreeing with Garth here. Investors are currently too enthusiastic on the economy. It will not be a disaster but it will not be healthy. Hard times coming again.

#50 Naga on 04.10.13 at 10:41 pm

Garth and fellow bloggers dogs/hounds:

Carrick of the G&M posted an intersting article from canadian business magazine.

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/trailing-indicator-2/

Candian Housing overvaluation spread of opinions from 0 to 78%….wow must be a very scientific formula for all these forecasters to produce such a spread of conclusions. Garth I am guessing you are somewhere between guarded (10%) to High (25%) alert levels based on this very unscientific spread of forecasters.

Personally and strictly as it applies to GTA I have the following predictions:

Condo market Alert (25%) drop over the next 2 – 3 years.

SFH – max Guarded (10%) drop if any going forward.

I am a believer in suply and demand and they are not building many more SFH. Before those owning SFH succumb to reducing prices as part of their moving to retired status a couple of major shifts will take place:

1. Retirement demographics shifting to later retirement milestones – many postpoining full retirement to post 65Plus:

2. Boomer Kids that cannot afford their own digs will stay/return home to recreate a new form of Nuclear family – so those bigger homes in suburbia GTA will see multiple family occupacy – another way to beat the property tax agrression.

Also Garth glad that you finally are agreeing to put your mind/focus on insurance….probably too late to help the boomers but worth the effort to help Gen X & Yers.

Still not sure if the next bull cycle is in motion or we are still in the long bear. Either way markets due for a correction but we are getting closer and closer to the actual start of a new bull or already into it – so any pull back opportunity to put new $ to work….and again some MF ok for certain portfolios.

#51 T5>myT4 on 04.10.13 at 10:41 pm

Well to be honest, It is pretty hard to find an overweight woman in Japan.

#52 SilverMeridian on 04.10.13 at 10:42 pm

SilverMeridian Greater Ottawa surReal Estate Market Update

“Ottawa’s housing market: Shockingly weak” says an analyst with M Hanson Advisors. “You can’t find another market in Canada where the sort of supply-demand imbalance has gone unnoticed the way it has in Ottawa.  Sales were off 16% y/y in March while inventory continued to grow at a pretty alarming clip.  Condo prices fell 4% y/y in March.”

What’s “Shockingly weak” for one observer could be presented as a “moderating trend” by another. “Spring market shows moderating trend” is trying to convince us the Ottawa Real Estate Board. It’s just a stinky 16% drop, nothing interesting here, move alone, “These aren’t the droids you’re looking for”, make sure you call you local Real Estate agent.

You can find entire Market Update here http://www1.ottawarealestate.org/home/NewsInformation/LatestNewsRelease.aspx

“Everything is proceeding as I have forseen” steals a line from the Emperor Palpatine speech Tim Lee, President of the Ottawa Real Estate Board. “The market was forecasted to slow down in 2013 as a result of recent mortgage changes, and indeed it has.”

Using the power of his Force, Tim Lee has probably “forecasted” (but forgot to mention anywhere in his Market Update) the record high Residential Active Listings of 6,500, as well as record high 5.5 Months of Inventory. Residential New Listings are trailing slightly behind 2012 numbers at 2,900 new listinings in March 2013, but this is probably just because some realtors started to refuse taking new listings at ridiculous prices, most of them are going to collect dust anyways, why bother with the paperwork. I just wonder, what kind of new mind tricks Ottawa Real Estate Board will try to use on us, and for how much longer are they going to keep us for the “weak-minded” clones?

#53 HAWK on 04.10.13 at 10:42 pm

#33 TS on 04.10.13 at 10:26 pm

===============================

5 – 10% is good for PM’s. They will eventually rebound, as will land, but it all takes time. In the meantime re-balance towards the financial instruments, but watch the market carefully.

As the Intel guy said “Only the paranoid survive” LOL

#54 Smoking Man on 04.10.13 at 10:42 pm

Continue…….

We all are trained to obey the master, teacher hands out the assignments, often being completed on one’s own time, then has the privilege to judge you… Never in my life have I given a shit about who judges me.. I don’t care… As my pre-A to light years past Z miss spelled posts.. Demonstrate..

If You’re outraged toward RBC means you swallowed the teachers cool aid.

If you get your identity from your slave job your doomed.. Keep eyes open find gaps, exploit and prosper….

Most of all love your self more than anyone if you want to survive and prosper in a global new order……

#55 Dodged-a-Bullit-in-Alberta on 04.10.13 at 10:43 pm

Greetings: When your shitter backs up, the roof leaks, the wind blows out a window, the vehicle quits on the driveway, tiles lift in the basement, windstorm destroys a tree, snow plugs the driveway, branches fill the back yard, kids can’t get to school, highways are blocked, water is backing up on the street, ATMs go down, tornado is ripping your community apart, all hell has broken loose: do you believe the temp foreign worker living in a rental accommodation will have a chance in hell of supporting the community as someone with a commitment to Canada does? When the lights go out, can RBC fix them? Massive snow storm hits western Canada, will temp workers be out there moving snow and checking on the neighbors, not likely. Our country is a challenge even for those of us born here, corporations who outsource our jobs will discover that their profits will cost them dearly. I now refuse to even talk to anyone on the phone who is not in Canada. The first question I ask is “Where are you?” If they are not in Canada, I hang up!!!

This blog is starting to scare me again. — Garth

#56 Eddyo on 04.10.13 at 10:44 pm

….calm before the storm.

#57 Devore on 04.10.13 at 10:47 pm

#11 Toronto mine sweeper

Aside from the MER fee if funds are making 7% to 11% what not take that to a TFSA?

Because you don’t know ahead of time which mutual find will hand you 10% and which one will return 0%, while still charging outrageous fees and bribing your MF salesm… err, financial adviser.

#58 Dr. Oblivious on 04.10.13 at 10:49 pm

“18 Keeping the Faith on 04.10.13 at 9:59 pm raw material stocks of course … and that includes the gold & silver kinds

am I correct?”

What? Huh? Correct about what?

#59 Devore on 04.10.13 at 10:51 pm

#21 John in Mtl

Discrediting bitcoin isn’t enough, however. To really be effective, they need to make bitcoin illegal.

Controlling Bitcoin isn’t necessary when they can simply control you. Much easier. Just look at your post.

#60 John Saccy on 04.10.13 at 10:53 pm

Bit coins..

the saga of bit coins today is pure comedy. Who thought of this bright idea of digital currency in the first place and why would any sane person deal with this phony/funny money is beyond me.

But it was fun seeing the movement within the last month.

Today I am truly amused.

#61 Janet on 04.10.13 at 10:56 pm

“After the Crash” by Garth Turner.. Learn all about Safes, squirrel recipes, and backyard gennies. So are you confessing that you got it wrong when you wrote that book, Garth?

In perfect harmony with the day it was published. — Garth

#62 BC bring cash on 04.10.13 at 10:56 pm

Garth I believe there are risks in pretending the US is doing just fine. Do not bet against the US you say. Yea right. The worlds largest creditor in the 1970’s and now is the greatest debtor in the entire history of the world. ZIRP interest rates are the norm for years to come. The Fed will continue the money printing into infinity. That will only end in disaster for everyone except those closest to the money taps.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1356642000.php

Those metalhead sites are doing a number on you. — Garth

#63 Dr. Oblivious on 04.10.13 at 10:57 pm

15 Vince

Incredible how much you read but how little you understood but you are not alone. It seems many posters here can’t see the forest for the trees.

By the way it’s we’re and you’re not were and your. I would be ashamed to admit how soon I left school but it seems I learned more in that time than many university educated people about spelling, grammar and puncuation. Not just aimed at you Vince it’s a constant I see in posts from most people.

#64 Dan7 on 04.10.13 at 11:00 pm

Are you including the principal residence when you calculated the 200000 millionaires? Or did you just account for liquid assets. Just wondering

Investable assets. — Garth

#65 Devore on 04.10.13 at 11:05 pm

#31 blinded

The 1% with 35% of the wealthly don’t have their wealth in Canada, it is offshore where there are no taxes, just ask Paul Martin.

That’s how the government knows who they are and how many of them there are?

#32 blinded

a balanced portfolio over the past 10 years can’t hold a candle to gold’s 6x rise.

We don’t live 10 years ago, we live today. You can’t drive forward by looking in the rearview mirror.

Sheesh Garth, why you gotta poke the goldbugs?

#66 not 1st on 04.10.13 at 11:05 pm

Look how wealth is concentrated in the U.S.A

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhxrqrViw3Y

And this is supposed to lead us to some vaunted economic renaissance??? I don’t see it. I don’t buy it.

#67 Gẻoge on 04.10.13 at 11:07 pm

Garth,

How is the S &P doing so well when trading volumes are lower than in the past? Also, isn’t that a risk as you’ve mentioned before when an asset rises too quickly, it must correct.

#68 Izzo on 04.10.13 at 11:09 pm

Garth,

As much as I enjoy everything you write and agree with a lot of the things you mention, but I believe we should look at this rally with a little bit of skepticism. These are extremely trying time for the world economy. The fact that the federal reserve is going wild with printing money should only make us more skeptical. This is an experiment on a massive scale, and we shouldnt be blind to that.

Also, Gold has been the base currency since the dawn of time and I highly doubt that it will change now or never. Gold will always be here, paper money its fleeting and it can go to zero at any time. Happened before and it will continue happening on the other hand gold wont be going anywhere.

I believe Barrick gold is an excellent buy at these levels. Regardless, you have to be able to take the risk.

Anyways thank you for your advice. Its always greatly appreciated.

#69 Retired WI Boomer on 04.10.13 at 11:09 pm

Garth IS correct in his post’s advice. He HAS been consistent as well.

Today I learned something I was not counting on. As I am now retired, I see my 401K (US version of taxable retirement savings) has grown so dam much if I HAD to start making mandatory withdrawals today, it would put me into the top tax bracket.

Actually, a decent problem to be burdened by. Now need to calculate how much i need to withdraw yearly (pay taxes on at the lower rates) and convert to ROTH account (untaxed gains) until the mandatory age on 70. should i live that long.

Retirement planning is such a bitch!

#70 Mick on 04.10.13 at 11:11 pm

Yep, everything is getting better, as long as the US keeps printing 85bn per month the ship will stay afloat.

Hmm, wonder why the FED feels it’s necessary to print 85bn per month anyway……

#71 The Prophet Elijah on 04.10.13 at 11:15 pm

#47 The Prophet Elijah on 04.10.13 at 10:39 pm

DELETED. Over your quota, dude. — Garth
———————————————————
Thats what I thought, any good arguments for gold are not allowed. Thanks again Garth, no wonder they kicked you out of government.

No wonder. But you’re still over your quota. — Garth

#72 Mick on 04.10.13 at 11:17 pm

Let’s remember 1929, when just before the crash, the stock market hit all time highs and optimism was 2′ thick on the streets.
Amazing Garth cites the stock market as evidence everything is fine. I really thought his knowledge of history was better than that.

Doomer mantras: ‘You’re stupid,’ and ‘We’re all gonna die.’ Always compelling. — Garth

#73 Shawn on 04.10.13 at 11:17 pm

MY BIT COIN BANK

If Bit Coin is real and people can present evidence they have some then what is to stop someone from setting up a bank to take in deposits of bit coin and make loans of bit coin. Since they would loan out the bit coin deposits and keep only a small amount on hand for withdrawals that would be known as factional reserve banking.

But we might need a bit coin deposit guarantee for that.

And if that bank later went bust, and there was no deposit guarantee, and the depositors lost some or all bit coin would that rhyme with Cyprus?

And if this can’t be done does that mean Bit Coin is a currency than can’t be borrowed?

#74 Shawn on 04.10.13 at 11:21 pm

IT HURTS TO BE A DOMMER

It’s gotta suck to be a doomer who refuses to believe that the U.S. housing market has stabilized and is returning to health and that stocks are up about 130% since March 9, 2009 not so much because they are very expensive now but mostly because they were dirt cheap back then.

It’s gotta suck to have completely missed out on the Great Financial Opportunity that was late 2008 and early 2009.

#75 Shawn on 04.10.13 at 11:22 pm

BIT COIN…

Last I heard Bit Coin was measured and valued in dollars (the enemy?) and not the other way around. What’s up with that? Isn’t bit coin the real currency?

#76 not 1st on 04.10.13 at 11:23 pm

Even the jokers on CNBC know that wall street does not equate to main street.

Until all that printing and hoarding of cash is put through the system and funnels down to the little guy, this will continue to be all smoke and mirrors. Obama should threaten to raise taxes on all corporations unless they either invest in domestically or pay it out in dividend. Until, then this economy is stalemate.

#77 Frustrated Kiwi on 04.10.13 at 11:23 pm

#36 blinded
>Cyprus? No, it’s the whole EU:
New Zealand, Solvenia, Argentina, etc.
You do know New Zealand and Argentina are not in Europe, right?

#78 Scott in Gibsons on 04.10.13 at 11:25 pm

Poor Garth doesn’t know the difference between a liquidity driven market and a healthy economy; central banks will pump until something breaks; just a matter of “when”. What will you say then Garth?

You’re right. Liquidity’s irrelevant. Just like 2009. — Garth

#79 Keith in Calgary on 04.10.13 at 11:26 pm

#70……

Exactly.

The moment the FED stops printing money and/or rates go up, the market collapses to it’s real value.

5,000 +/-…………….

#80 jan on 04.10.13 at 11:30 pm

https://post.craigslist.org/imagepreview/m/3Gc3Md3Nd5N85G35Kdd48c133891d88dc1588.jpg

The rich run the show here and everywhere else.
There is over 200,000 millionaires in Canada today.
Canadian corporations are reporting record profits yet hire mostly foreign cheap workers.
Politicians are self-serving tarts who only care about their kick-backs and fat pensions ahead.
The rich keep lobbying governments’ to keep them wealthy by tuning economic policies such as interest rates etc to be low, thus inflating value of their land ownership and at the same time indebting Canadians with 165% debt load ( highest in the world )on credit and mortgages they will never repay.
Political correctness is used to muzzle law obedient Canadians and to force them to accept the new way of wealthy Lords who run this place, effectively destroying the middle class and working families.
Selective immigration policies destroying further Canadian way of life by bringing in wealthy who will never contribute to our way of life except for making our living a lot more expensive and ensuring the average Canadian will never own their own home.

I am dead tired of all this crap and want to take it to the streets.
Anyone with me?? – thanks for letting me unburden myself.

#81 Rabbit Killah on 04.10.13 at 11:30 pm

Garth, since when was the behaviour of investors a part of a logical argument. You make fun of them all the time, and now you cite them?

It would be more convincing if you had anything other than fiercely repeating, “Don’t bet against America!”

Like equity markets, you mean? Housing? Or employment data? Corporate profitability? Smart Canadians have US exposure. — Garth

Equity markets when? Housing when? Employment when?

2008?

Every day you rail against the sheeple, and many of those are corporate investor sheeple. Investors who followed the herd and bought mortgage bundles at the wrong time or equities at the wrong time.

Investors are a negative indicator according to you. If the herd (of investors) is going one way, you should go the other.

So why should we trust investors to tell us “it ain’t happening”? How about making an actual argument, rather than blustering?

#82 Fabrega on 04.10.13 at 11:31 pm

#2 Blase
“3 bedroom mobile homes in Southern Ontario can be had for less than $50,000. Warm weather, fellow-retirees, access to tons of facilities. ”

Warm weather??? Only 3 months per year, right?

#83 Randman on 04.10.13 at 11:31 pm

Regarding the recent issues discussed here about jobs being lost to cheap labour and off shoring .

I am presently in S.E. Asia to buy a small BPO ( business process outsource) company.

From here I will be supplying services for a particular industry sector in Canada

I will be able to provide trained employees that presently cost companies $3000 a month plus benefits for somewhere between half to one third of the cost.

Now,I don’t expect this to make me popular here on this shamefull blog, but there are a few things that need to be pointed out.

Despite the fact that most Canadians don’t like this…
It is the trend of the future.

It is the nature of business to find low cost models that increase return or stay competitive.

Canada has a high overhead and labor cost….companies will eventually find a way to reduce those or go under…

The fact is…if I don’t act now…someone else in my business will eventually do this …..it’s inevitable …

This is the nature of our world and the business environment that is evolving

I suggest if you don’t like it…instead of complaining,find a way to profit from these off shoring trends…

#84 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 04.10.13 at 11:32 pm

#5 Tim on 04.10.13 at 9:29 pm

The sacking of Canadian workers at the Royal Bank so they can hire cheaper foreign workers is disgusting, but the larger issues are that Harper has encouraged this to happen by beefing up the Foreign Worker program, which has increased unemployment in Canada and has the effect of exploiting foreigners, and the fact that the banks, like many large companies in the states are offshoring many jobs. The US has hollowed out its middle class and decimated their manufacturing base. One of the reasons the recession is so prolonged in the US is the fact that they have offshored many jobs. We are obviously doing the same thing in Canada and this will have devastating effects on the middle class. Just look at how many unemployed/underemployed grads there are in Canada.

==================================

Exactly…..and also by design

The economy that filled the void was simply paper shuffling, a bogus stock market and fiat currency.

An economy that doesn’t produce real goods and services and does not have a vibrant middle class is one that is doomed to collapse back into serfdom.

People in IT etc are THE most disposable, as we see the global toilet flu$$$hhh.

#85 Freebird on 04.10.13 at 11:36 pm

Garth, based on some of ypthe comments so far I believe your (consistent) message went above the head and below the knees of some. At this point if I were you I’d be tempted to pick a nice spot on the wall, place both hands about shoulder level, lean forward and start…banging. Perhaps trying to get your message through to the wall might be more constructive in some cases. Anywhoo, good post. My partner is now receiving his CPP early thx in part to your blog and as soon as I’m well and mobile will be looking for a good advisor. In the meantime I’m keeping a list of points from your blog and other sources on investing. We’re looking for a good place to invest the CPP pyts for now other than GIC as other friends. Seems there are some good options.

Cheers,

#86 Randman on 04.10.13 at 11:37 pm

Garth

Gold has not crashed

Bitcoin was an obvious blow off bubble…

Apple had the same overbought numbers

Canadian real estate has the same overbought numbers

Your strategy of buying low and selling high is a correct
And simpler formula

Why you think it only pertains to certain assets classes is beyond me!

#87 Fabrega on 04.10.13 at 11:40 pm

Bobama now wants to fudge how inflation is calculated to rip off pensioners. Isn’t that nice? As if it is not fudged enough. What a joke.

#88 Some perspective on 04.10.13 at 11:43 pm

This entry comes off as a tad bitter with the average populous. Garth pretends like the odds are not stacked against the middle/lower class when it comes to investing and forgets that the reason he is so wise with finance is because its his JOB to be. Most of us grind out 10 hours days and when we get home we don’t have time to go through the latest financial columns reading between the lines to try and figure out this joke of a system we call the “economy”. Its almost impossible to tell who is sharing information for their own benefit and who is sharing information to provide some truth about the world.

Its too bad predatory business practices have become the norm and Garth’s tone in these blogs reflects this. When the bean counters run the economy there is no room for sympathy or remorse. The fault always lies in the individual and if you are not improving the bottom line there is no room for you in this world. We are in a age where the rich will use tools of oppression; marketing, propaganda, obfuscation, price gouging, bribes, corruption and cheap entertainment. All this undercuts the moral fabric of society and leaves our wallets and sense of meaningful community gutted. This allows the rich to continue to dominate us with their false sense of superiority while they believe in the “survival of the fittest” mantra so they can sleep at night.

What was that about ‘bitter’? — Garth

#89 Investx on 04.10.13 at 11:44 pm

But, but… you can’t buy groceries with an ETF!

#90 Nick on 04.10.13 at 11:47 pm

I think it’s great that the S&P is going up, but as a young investor, I’m also pissed. That means I buy a smaller number of shares with the money I invest every month.

#91 Stan on 04.10.13 at 11:50 pm

Garth, I would disagree regarding individual stocks. I think they are fine, providing that
– portfolio size is 6 or more digits
– each individual stock doesn’t take up more than 3-5% of the portfolio
– these stocks are members of the respectable indexes (S&P 500, S&P TSX, DJ Dividend) and well diversified across countries/sectors.
– the stocks are bought for long-term, without intention of selling in a year or two.

#92 Godth on 04.11.13 at 12:00 am

I guess you are looking for some more this week after all. I’m reminded of the chinese saying about knowing who to bet against in a casino.
This was my favourite bit: “The US dollar will grow stronger, and remain the global reserve currency for a lifetime.” My Grandma’s 92 so that would work for her.

“A few days ago I reminded you that wealth is concentrating. One per cent of Canadians have 35% of the money. There are about 200,000 millionaires, and this group is growing in size quickly. So are the poor folks. The middle class is cratering.”
You don’t say, how do you think that’s going to work out long term? Sounds like a bright future in this civilised society of homo sapien sapiens. (toothy grin)

#93 Buy when they cry, sell when they yell on 04.11.13 at 12:05 am

Garth what about us under 30’s who’ve only got low to mid five digit portfolios? Surely some of the lower MER mutual funds can’t be that bad otherwise where else do you start? The combined MER on my funds is < 0.5%. How important is that extra little bit of liquidity?

#94 David on 04.11.13 at 12:05 am

Gold is inflation-proof, not recession-proof, which explains why bullion isn’t bloating.

#95 makeuhumble on 04.11.13 at 12:05 am

Hi Garth. Re: “rebalance often”. How often? 3 months? 6 months? 12?

I invested my savings in the complete couch potato model portfolio back in February. With the TSX tanking like it has, would you (or any other astute investors who read this blog) say that now is a good time to rebalance? The couch potato folks seem to recommend rebalancing every 12 months but I would appreciate other opinions.

Doomers and magpies need not reply.

Thanks!

#96 45north on 04.11.13 at 12:05 am

John in Montreal: from your link:
Step 1) Central banks buy up bitcoins
Step 2) dump them

that so obvious, of course banks/governments would do this

maybe I’ll buy some

#97 Vik on 04.11.13 at 12:08 am

Garth,

Price went up 30-40% in the GTA. You call 15% correction? Nice try dude. More like a dent. I feel sorry for the people who listened to you for the past 5 years. There you go folks, you missed your chance of owning a home in a cache neighborhood.

We all know what prices inflated. I’m telling you why this period is over. — Garth

#98 Timing is Everything on 04.11.13 at 12:08 am

iGate…

“We replace 20 guys there [Canada] with 20 guys here [India].”

http://tinyurl.com/cz5759n

Easy peasy lemon squeezy.

#99 Doomer update — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate | The Affluent Boomer™ on 04.11.13 at 12:11 am

[…] In the last few hours the S&P 500, on optimism over corporate profits, hit another high. If you owned an ETF pacing it, you’ve made 11.25%. Yes, in the last hundred days. During the same period of time the Dow has advanced 12.96%, while poor gold owners have seen their rocks decline by 8%. Meanwhile Bitcoins have proven once again that you’re better off trading something useful, like Victoria’s Secret pushups. Continue reading → […]

#100 BigAl (Original) on 04.11.13 at 12:11 am

Re: RBC and Foreign Workers
First capital, then goods, then labour/services (current phase), then unifying a currency. Go to any introductory economics text, and this is the requirement for free trade to theoretically “work” (Keep in mind that economics is a social science, not a pure science). But then there’s always that irksome ceteris paribus thingy.

The next step will be services. i.e. if you’re a business owner and hoping to cash in on this cheap labour, rethink that. The native Chinese/Indian/East Euro, etc companies are going to be moving in on their own, out-bidding you on your contracts.

The TFW program is already seeing these companies popping up in various sectors demanding their entitlement to bring their own temporary workers with them (no immigration stream, just migrant labour) to bid against you for contracts. And, “labour” is a misleading term. As the RBC example shows, it’s not limited to unskilled labour. It is everything from trades, to pharmacists, to architects, office managers/administrators, cooks, travel agents, sales reps.

Government of Canada stats, total Temporary Foreign Workers by occupation Class totals, from 2008-2011 alone:
13,275 Management Occupations
69,285 Professionals
166,345 Skilled Trades and Technical Occupations
232,740 Intermediate Skilled and Clerical
145,740 Low Skill/Labourers
======
627,460 Total over these 4 years alone

These numbers are directly from the government’s website:
http://www.hrsdc.gc.ca/eng/jobs/foreign_workers/lmo_statistics/annual2011.shtml
(scroll to table 3a.)

These are NOT immigrants, which I would be ok with because then there would be mutual benefit for all. They are temporary migrant labour (professional or unskilled doesn’t matter). They will stay in low-rent housing for their 3 or 4 years and then go back, all the while sending almost all of their earnings back home.

#101 This Is My Story on 04.11.13 at 12:13 am

I’m back and still married after her 50th birthday party.
The friends were great, the band awesome and lots of booze to go around. Smoking Man would of been impressed.
Well back to reality, The house is now sold and we must move yet again.F&^%*$!!!!!!!!!!!!!
But on a lighter note the Realtor f’ed up and didn’t tell the landlord that before giving use notice ALL SUBJECTS must be removed by the 1st of the month or the notice to vacate is null and void. Subjects were removed on the 8th. So in order for us to move by the compleation date he has to buy us out. Sucks to be him(but also me). Looked at buying but all there is is junk in the price we want to pay and also buying in the spring is not a good time. We waited this long so a few more months won’t kill us.
Will keep you up to date and thanks for listening to our plyte.

TIMS

#102 brunette on 04.11.13 at 12:15 am

I don’t understand why some gold companies stocks are at 5 or 10 year lows when gold is way higher now than it was back then. How does that work???

#103 Blinded on 04.11.13 at 12:16 am

Point 12 an 18 of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Bank of England Release Joint Paper on Resolving Globally Active, Systemically Important Financial Institutions demonstrate that all bank liabilities and creditors will be used to keep the failed bank alive for the purpose on the continuity of the financial system.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/news/2012/156.aspx

The BIS said the same in 2010.

Derivatives have priority and there’s over a quadrillion globally.

How much more clear does that need to be that depositors are toast?

#104 MacDaddy on 04.11.13 at 12:16 am

“In the last few hours the S&P 500, on optimism over corporate profits, hit another high. If you owned an ETF pacing it, you’ve made 11.25%. Yes, in the last hundred days. During the same period of time the Dow has advanced 12.96%, while poor gold owners have seen their rocks decline by 8%.”

How would the S&P and gold compare over the longer term? Gold is up 500% over the past 10 years. Who cares about an 8% blip down. Thats a rounding error. After that 11.25% on the S&P it is about the level it was in 2000 13 years ago. Ouch!

We live now, not 10 years ago. Markets are up 11% this year and gold is down 8%. Deal with it. — Garth

#105 NoName on 04.11.13 at 12:22 am

BitCON

http://m.vanityfair.com/online/daily/2013/04/logic-problems-bitcoin-bubble

Excel ant read!
When read replace “bitcoin” with Canadian real estate.
One comprehensive study released last October found that more than three-quarters of all Bitcoins—78 percent—had been stuffed into virtual mattresses and taken out of circulation. In other words, in a system where supply and demand dictate prices, the available supply in the market is far less than might be imagined.
In essence, the market is a fantasy. Once the hoarders stop buying, what buyers will step up to the plate to take their place? My bet? No one. There will be, at some point, a time when some hoarder decides to unload. Prices will drop. Other hoarders will get scared and start to sell. Prices will drop further. Before long, there will be a mass rush to the exits. And at that point, the illiquidity of the Bitcoin market will be apparent.”

#106 neo on 04.11.13 at 12:32 am

Garth,

So you think a correction on the Dow would be 5-7%. That’s basically a month ago at the beginning of March. Prices retreating to what they were a month ago isn’t a correction any more than house prices falling 5-7% is a correction. I asked you in your last blog entry about 15% because that is the number you have consistently used. I’ll ask again…

What’s more likely to happen first?

TREB average price down 15%

or

Dow industrial average down 15%

You are so confident in the DOW and bearish on the GTA housing this should be easy to answer.

A correction is not a crash, it’s a correction. The last three years have contained corrections of between 10% and 20%, and markets have moved on each time to establish new highs. I expect a similar pattern. — Garth

#107 Vanman on 04.11.13 at 12:33 am

Great post.

#108 popados on 04.11.13 at 12:36 am

always wanted a goat(nubian) for milk and lawnmower,go super green.a big plus if you like the meat.kill 3 birds or get killed by wifey.maybe get a pigmy and put a recording of rover around its neck.

#109 Adam Smith on 04.11.13 at 12:42 am

You’re smart Garth but Paul Craig Roberts has proven himself smart over a longer period of time. What’s your opinion on his opinion regarding gold?

http://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Assault-On-Gold-by-Paul-Craig-Roberts-130404-524.html

I never trust anyone with three names. — Garth

#110 meslippery on 04.11.13 at 12:42 am

Ok I thought my job was safe (truck driver) that
cannot be off shored ? THINK ok we will find people
who will come here and work for less.

Dam I did not think of that.

#111 Soylent Green is People on 04.11.13 at 1:06 am

I invested all my money in Linden dollars myself

http://computer.howstuffworks.com/internet/social-networking/information/second-life-job.htm

.
.
.

#112 Q on 04.11.13 at 1:21 am

@jan #77

I am with you. Best post ever. You touched on all the major points.

#113 Blacksheep on 04.11.13 at 1:26 am

“A few days ago I reminded you that wealth is concentrating. One per cent of Canadians
have 35% of the money. There are about 200,000 millionaires, and this group is growing
in size quickly. So are the poor folks. The middle class is cratering.- Garth”

Today blog reminded me of this.

This will rile.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2Xh5eN2fXY&feature=player_embedded

This will calm.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRyELKGLGag

#114 Sacola on 04.11.13 at 1:40 am

I don’t agree that the U.S. is a safe economy to invest in. If so, U.S. corporations would be investing the record amount of cash they are sitting on. Instead they are hoarding it.

Companies have also been borrowing cash at low rates and using the proceeds to repurchase shares, resulting in higher EPS.

People on Food Stamps is at a record high.

The workforce is shrinking

The way the U.S. has been printing money is another story.

What am I missing here? Why are you bullish on the U.S. economy?

#115 Bubu on 04.11.13 at 1:45 am

Will be making sure that my TFSA will be maxed this year. Check
Postponing my plan for buying property for at least another year. Check
My investment portfolio is well distributed. Check

Only thing is, will be renting for another year – at least – and not getting any younger.
Oh well, you win some, you lose some, I guess.
Taking your advice though, Garth!

#116 Fed-up on 04.11.13 at 1:56 am

@#39 Fiscal Cliff

——————————————————————————–

Indeed, the beaches got slammed during the last correction. Then again, no one was spared. Which may support the theory that the areas that spearheaded this madness may actually get hit every bit as hard as anywhere else, maybe harder.

We shall see…

#117 Bubu on 04.11.13 at 2:00 am

Every time when I read “Bitcoins”,
the image of those carwash coins or metal carnival tokens are popping up in my mind.

#118 Jazmine on 04.11.13 at 2:12 am

So Garth….

If gold is such a bad trade then why are central banks buying so much? Your always telling us how good and honest the bankers are. Are they pulling one over your eyes?

http://247wallst.com/2013/02/14/central-banks-buy-the-most-gold-since-1964/#ixzz2LMLOfBPK

The banks’ main holding is US$. Explain that. — Garth

#119 My credentials far beat Garth's on 04.11.13 at 2:14 am

#76: Bernie & Co at the Fud believe they are smart enough to be able to slow down the printing of money and raise interest rates at a temp that counter-balances any negative impact that would have in light of real economic growth. Without real economic growth starting to pick up again, however, this is logically impssible to achieve. Garth understands that, I hope. So, it all depends on whether the dependency of the economies of the BRICS countries on the US will stay intact long enough for the US to become competitive again; it is really a bet that the big emerging economies will not get their political, judicial, and other acts together anytime soon, plus a belief that americans, given enough time and incentives, will become truly competitive again. The competitiveness will have to come to a large part on turning innovations into products and services. If that does not happen in the next five to ten years, the US is in big troubles. Until then it can keep printing money like maniacs, and keep its interest rates ultra low. Can Canada get away with following this blueprint in case of a recession? Nah…

#120 Yellow Rox on 04.11.13 at 2:15 am

Two points of contention:

1. Although they are definitely making an effort, China has yet to crush their bubble. That’s not to say that they won’t at some point in the future, but it has not happened just yet.

2. A person doesn’t have to have all of their money in gold to be a “Gold Lover”.

One thing we can agree on is the little knob in NK.

#121 Tony on 04.11.13 at 2:24 am

Re: #77 jan on 04.10.13 at 11:30 pm

Funny none of these so called record Canadian profits can be found on the Canadian venture exchange which is trading at fifty-eight percent less than it was thirty years ago when it was the Vancouver stock exchange.

Not funny at all. Large cap vs small cap. — Garth

#122 Barry in Pickering on 04.11.13 at 2:44 am

Garth,
As you’ve told us, your balanced portfolio has less than 20% in ETF stocks. The rest is bonds, pref shares, reits, which haven’t moved much.
It’s a shame that you’ve largely missed out on this bull run in stocks. Didn’t you see it coming? If so, why not an allocation change toward stocks, and a public announcement of same.

A good portfolio mix is 60% growth, 40% fixed. It has performed extremely well. Please work harder on your research. — Garth

#123 Humpty Dumpty on 04.11.13 at 2:51 am

Just following the theme G….

Billions of flying bugs known as cicadas are due to sweep over the East Coast starting sometime in the next month.

And although it’s too early to predict exactly where or when the brood will appear, this spring’s emergence should rate as the most closely watched bug-out in history.

http://cosmiclog.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/04/09/17676853-17-years-in-the-making-this-springs-cicada-invasion-generates-early-buzz?lite

Mathew 24-7

For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places.

#124 Oceanside on 04.11.13 at 2:56 am

I am a … Financial advisor with the Royal Bank?

#125 hobbygirl on 04.11.13 at 3:08 am

Canadian markets are booming thanks to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program. When the cons repeal the blatant abuse (and treason), watch the markets tank.

#126 betamax on 04.11.13 at 3:39 am

Buy a goat now before you’re priced out forever!

#127 Thanks for the Entertainment on 04.11.13 at 5:04 am

Hey Garth Turner….is there a point to your website? I think the web is full enough of uninformed people trying to get some kind of following.

S&P doing well? Ever heard of a bubble inflated by QE (quantitative easing, for the uninformed here). Ask Bernanke, he will explain it to you.

I am no fan of bitcoin, but it has performed better than what masquerades as housing in Canada…

As to gold….can you read charts and look at the underlying fundamentals ??? No, I did not think so.

Compare that to any currency. Children should not be allowed to have their own website.

Speaking of children, when you mature you’ll understand the weakness of arguments attacking people, rather than ideas. Your poor choices are not made better by attacking those who disagree. True conviction is its own reward. — Garth

#128 The real Kip on 04.11.13 at 5:42 am

“Of course, Canadian real estate will still correct. Our economy will drag.”

Did you hear the one about jets coming to Toronto Islsnd Airport? 2-billion dollars? Thousands of Canadian jobs? Built here by Bombardier? Canadians with jobs, living well, bad news indeed!

#129 eagle eyes on 04.11.13 at 5:46 am

There is this slightly overweight Korean guy by the name of Kim Jung something who is ready to press the button and set off a bad chain of events. How will this affect our neck of the woods? We’ll see.

#130 I'm stupid on 04.11.13 at 6:05 am

Bitcoins are the Internet equivalent of air miles. Why would anyone “invest” or trade air miles? I’m amazed at how stupid people are. I guess the old adage will always be true. “There’s a sucker born every minute.” Maybe it’s every second now.

#131 economictsunami on 04.11.13 at 6:06 am

Doomer Update:

In 2012, global central banks acquired the most gold in over 50 years. The price of gold is being manipulated by TPTB, who would rather have you trust in the confidence of tiny bits of paper once again.

In response to the after effects of the ongoing financial crisis, these same CBs are simultaneously flooding markets with worthless paper money; falsely driving up the price of hard assets.

For all of the co ordinated efforts of CBs, the best that can be obtained is an unsustainable recovery.

It appears all is well, especially for those who still believe in fairy tales, such as a US housing recovery.

Party on Garth…

We live our lives in ‘worthless paper money’. Guess it’s not so worthless, after all. — Garth

#132 EIT on 04.11.13 at 6:37 am

What about when bitcoin crashed to 0.01 on Mt. Gox? Now, THAT, was something to behold. Everybody asking, ‘what does this mean?’ Fascinating how bitcoin works though, every point having all the information, almost like a fractal theory of the universe. I’m a nerd, whatever! Pains me to see Garth bash bitcoin like this, regardless of the justifications. Matters little though, my investment strategy is working, understanding what 99.999999999% don’t, and what 99.999999% NEED. Time has been invested, money will follow… & bankster-proof too lol (damn. I’m too young to be this awesome ;)

#133 Brew on 04.11.13 at 6:46 am

#63 Dr Oblivious

Incredible how much you read but how little you understood but you are not alone. It seems many posters here can’t see the forest for the trees.

By the way it’s we’re and you’re not were and your. I would be ashamed to admit how soon I left school but it seems I learned more in that time than many university educated people about spelling, grammar and puncuation. Not just aimed at you Vince it’s a constant I see in posts from most people.

_______________

“puncuation”? LOL

#134 Mr. Frugal on 04.11.13 at 7:40 am

That does it! I’m dumping all of my gold and bitcoins and putting the lot into tulip bulbs. I hear it’s the hot new thing.

#135 ChickenLittle on 04.11.13 at 7:51 am

FTP – First Time Poster on 04.10.13 at 10:09 pm

” Has anyone ever wondered why useless math is taught in advanced math classes, but math skills that are useful (budgeting, personal finance, investing) are ignored in our schools? ”

Yes! I always have!

#136 Have YOU All Lost Your Mind Here? on 04.11.13 at 8:03 am

“RBC hiring cheaper foreign labor !!!”

Are you all demented here?
Are you all demented here?
Are you all demented here?

For how much do we all have to work here in Overpriced Canada???

List of items that cost more than in US:
Food produce
Dairy products
Meat
HOUSING
RENT
Gasoline
Cars
Mobile communication
HST and all other TAXes
Clothing
and so on
Even Doctors is now $27 per visit and Garth is quiet
And Public Transportation is JOKE !

Of course we cannot compete with US, we all know that, yet BIG Business lobbyists still manage to get paid for scamming government in TAX BREAKS for them ONLY!

LOWER cost of Living and than we will be competitive!

P.S. for how long those foreign workers can work for $10 per Hour?
Until they melt their body fat and go to grocery store and realize how much food cost here. And Rent too

THEN THEY Become EXPENSIVE

…and in circle we go bring more , open the gate

I’m off to price goats. — Garth

#137 pbrasseur on 04.11.13 at 8:12 am

26% unemployment in Greece, much more among the youth!

I’d say in terms of gloom & doom they are living it…

Others are also living “the dream”, Spain and Portugal for example while France with it’s socialist government is working hard at joining them!

On the other side of the Atlantic the US is in recovery mode, there is no denying that.

But what about Canada?

So far we’ve been flying under the radar and most of the world think we’re great, notably because we are sitting on a big pile of resources.

I disagree. We have a severe productivity problem in this country, outlined by reports that come out year after years to outline our inability to create and innovate. What the numbers say is that resources represent a relatively small part of the Canadian economy. Manufacturing is a decreasing part. The rest is consumption and housing both supported by a growing and scary mountain of debt. Oh and the public sector is fat and unsustainable. The federal debt is NOT under control while provincial debts have exploded. Quebec in particular is now racing towards the wall.

So when it comes to Canada at least I thing a bit of gloom & doom would be rather healthy. Instead we have complaisance and that will only make the outcome worse.

#138 pbrasseur on 04.11.13 at 8:21 am

@Sacola #106

“I don’t agree that the U.S. is a safe economy to invest in. If so, U.S. corporations would be investing the record amount of cash they are sitting on. ”

Would you not prefer investing in multinational companies sitting of piles of cach rather than in governments sitting on piles of debt?

#139 richard on 04.11.13 at 8:25 am

Garth, you said find financial help. Where, I am interested in finding someone to manage my savings. Someone who wont gamble my money/. Any suggestions?

#140 GTA realtors hurting bad for money on 04.11.13 at 8:38 am

Look at these realtors who haven’t made a sale in a year hurting for money posting on garths blog. It must suck to be an out of work realtor with no skills or education.

#141 neo on 04.11.13 at 8:55 am

Garth,

So you think a correction on the Dow would be 5-7%. That’s basically a month ago at the beginning of March. Prices retreating to what they were a month ago isn’t a correction any more than house prices falling 5-7% is a correction. I asked you in your last blog entry about 15% because that is the number you have consistently used. I’ll ask again…

What’s more likely to happen first?

TREB average price down 15%

or

Dow industrial average down 15%

You are so confident in the DOW and bearish on the GTA housing this should be easy to answer.

A correction is not a crash, it’s a correction. The last three years have contained corrections of between 10% and 20%, and markets have moved on each time to establish new highs. I expect a similar pattern. — Garth

********************************************

You are still not answering the question. I thought you were out of politics? I never said 15% was a crash. Every winter you go on about the seasonal drop in prices in housing, which amounts to 10% at times, like it means something and it never does. The above comment you are making about an equity “correction” I could say the same thing about this recent low volume melt up we continue to have in housing since the 2009 “correction” that spearheaded this blog. You are so confident about the efficacy of one but not the other yet there foundation is both built on cheap money and government stimulus not fundamentals.

#142 Bottoms_Up on 04.11.13 at 8:59 am

Garth, I think history is going to judge you based on your blog. You might just go down as the first very influential Canadian bloggist with a large…ahem…national and international following. Thank you for the work that you do and your honesty and integrity.

#143 Gotthardbahn on 04.11.13 at 9:10 am

Hey Garth – Here’s an excerpt from a recent article authored by one Douglas Schoen, a long-time Democratic party pollster:

‘The American people are in a profoundly pessimistic and angry mood. The Republican Party’s approval ratings stand at a 20-year low, with 66 percent judging it unfavorably compared to 33 percent favorably. The Democrats are viewed in a more favorable light, but are still not in good stead (43 percent favorable to 53 percent unfavorable).

‘Fifty-two percent of voters believe the country is off on the wrong track, and 50 percent say the same about the economy. Close to a majority say we will not be able to balance the budget anytime soon.’

Now, I may be wrong, but this doesn’t sound like an economy – or a country – that’s brimming with confidence and restained energy and about to explode in strong growth and huge job creation. Quite the contrary, in fact.

You keep saying investors are keen on the US economy. Well, of course they are – the Fed keeps printing in excess of a trillion dollars annually, virtually all of which ends up in the financial markets, allowing traders to keep bidding up equity prices inter alia. Whether or not this is benefitting Joe Sixpack and Mary Mallwalker is debatable, but according to Mr. Schoen above, it clearly ISN’T.

Finally, as regards the ‘cratering of the middle class’ and the rise of poverty in Canada: Bear in mind that the poor and recently poor vastly outnumber the rich, and any politician – like Barack Obama, for instance – who promises to make the rich pay will find a surprising amount of support. Be careful what you wish for, SIR.

Is that a threat? — Garth

#144 gladiator on 04.11.13 at 9:11 am

People who bought Bitcoins also believe in zombie apocalypse.
If this is the average level of “stupid”, I’m afraid to imagine what is stupider than that.

(RIP George Carlin.)

#145 confessions of a real estate bear on 04.11.13 at 9:15 am

This is a question for doomers (i am one) and bulls alike. Was the U.S and Canadian economy in 2006,2007 strong or was it sick as a dog in a sea of unsustainable credit expansion. What is different now?

#146 Ralph Cramdown Ⓤ on 04.11.13 at 9:29 am

#121 economictsunami — In 2012, global central banks acquired the most gold in over 50 years. The price of gold is being manipulated by TPTB, who would rather have you trust in the confidence of tiny bits of paper once again.

Who exactly are you preaching to? The family with a big mortgage and little savings would welcome some inflation, and has no money to buy gold. Investors in yielding real estate and in common equities are fairly well protected from inflation. People whose wealth is in investment grade bonds or cash aren’t making enough to afford an internet connection, so they’re not reading this.

And “this investment is being artificially manipulated by some of the world’s most powerful institutions, but you should buy it anyway” is hardly a great thesis. Gold is a store of value that doesn’t and a medium of exchange that isn’t, promoted by an increasingly (if that’s even possible) loony sounding group of conspiracy theorists who accept cash, cheques and all major credit cards, but not gold. I bet if I looked hard enough, I could find a doomer gold promoter who accepts payment in bitcoin, but not gold. INSANE IN THE BRAIN!

#147 cmccullo on 04.11.13 at 9:32 am

Don’t forget, people. You’ll need a boy goat AND a girl goat for the growth portion of your portfolio.

#148 blok existentialist on 04.11.13 at 9:43 am

Diversify those goats. Friend here who is obsessed with ‘minis’ just bought a fainting goat. She has a loud voice so I imagine the goat will spend much of its time comatose.

#149 Steven Rowlandson on 04.11.13 at 9:47 am

Why aren’t the financial markets tanking? Why isn’t bullion bloating?
Answer:
Political and banker manipulation of the financial markets coupled with politically correct propaganda from the MSM. No theory just the facts.

As for Bitcoin I suspect it will be as famous as Bre-Ex and if the government and the banksters take it over they are likely to make it global ,compulsory on pain of death and there won’t be coins ,there will be implantable chips. Those that get the chip go to hell along with the bankers, politicians and the devil and his demons. They will all be doomed for all eternity.

I sure hope that was a joke. — Garth

#150 The Prophet Elijah on 04.11.13 at 9:48 am

#71 The Prophet Elijah on 04.10.13 at 11:15 pm
#47 The Prophet Elijah on 04.10.13 at 10:39 pm

DELETED. Over your quota, dude. — Garth
———————————————————
Thats what I thought, any good arguments for gold are not allowed. Thanks again Garth, no wonder they kicked you out of government.

No wonder. But you’re still over your quota. — Garth—————————————————–
Garth sorry for getting out of control last night and all. Maybe we can start fresh today. I just didn’t know there was a quota as it’s not outlined in your rules.
Can you tell us what the limit for a day is?

Three serious. One specious. — Garth

#151 rosie "moving backwards" on 04.11.13 at 9:54 am

A bargain and oh so cute. http://dayspring-nubians.webs.com/
The doomer view. http://s1.hubimg.com/u/3015212_f496.jpg
Or you can pay attention to the road so you don’t miss the cutoff. http://www.thomasumstattd.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/the-future.jpg

#152 Nemesis on 04.11.13 at 9:58 am

…”stronger every month”…

You really should get out more, OldPol.

The GroundTruth would startle you.

Looks better to me. — Garth

#153 Canuck Abroad on 04.11.13 at 10:02 am

Garth you are so right about these doomer websites. I feel like I have lost two years of my life following these clowns and for what? My returns, though good, probably could have been better. The bankers who crashed the system will NEVER be punished, so I may as well just suck it up and move on. Being in Europe while funds were being seized from Cyprus accounts and seeing that it had no effect whatsoever on the rest of the world was astonishing. Nobody cared! Europe is irreparably broken, but it will be held together with sticky tape and bailing wire and heaven and earth will be moved to save “the project” so there will never be a Europe event to hit the markets. Onwards and upwards from here I guess. Another 1980s style move in the markets heavenwards, which will probably go on for 20 years…

#154 T.J. BONES on 04.11.13 at 10:07 am

Sir Garth: I will ask the question that you do not want to hear or answer. If the banks are making atrocious profits at record low interest rates, what are the concequences to the economy when interest rates normalize? Canada will be a money laundring account with a destitute populance. Your reply!

Of course rates will eventually normalize. House values will fall and discretionary spending freeze as debt loads increase. I think it’s obvious where many families are headed. They were warned. — Garth

#155 Richard in Kelowna on 04.11.13 at 10:17 am

Can’t mention the word on this site………but the bottom is in…

#156 Joe Bloggs on 04.11.13 at 10:30 am

“…if I’m full of crap and we’re still doomed, buy a goat. And some land.”

– no doubt … and this advise just proves it again…

Suggestion Garth – you are good and knowledgable in real estate and taxation, so you better limit your recommendations to those…

Definition of good advice: what I agree with. BTW, it’s ‘advice’ and ‘knowledgeable.’ — Garth

#157 PTDBD on 04.11.13 at 10:31 am

Garth, are you getting your motorcycle warmed up yet? Yet another spring to enjoy once the bitch winter lets go its grip. I haven’t heard any mention of the dog. All ok?

One small question…The real estate corrections of Ireland, UK, Spain, Portugal and the USA have all brought about distress for the banks, both private and Central. Would Canada be any different?

#158 PTDBD on 04.11.13 at 10:36 am

oh crap…I just scrolled up a bit and saw your answer that interest rates would normalize. Now I have to type again.

You have some serious blinkers on. It will NEVER, EVER be allowed to happen….until after the collapse. The prestidigitizer for the levitation nation only “goes forward” at increasing speeds. There is no off switch.

There will be no ‘collapse.’ Rates will normalize, and best prepare now. Not that hard. — Garth

#159 TheBigLebowski on 04.11.13 at 10:48 am

Garth, are you a day trader or investor ? The dow has gone nowhere for the past 12 years while gold is up 6 fold in the same time period. Cherry picking small windows of time has no long term relevance on a trend. Just look at the global warming scam to see how data can be distorted to show anything. Its not who sprints out ahead of the marathon at the start who wins the race its who finishes first when its all over. And 2013 will separate the chaff from the wheat or in this case the confetti currencies from real money.

Someday you will learn about rebalancing. — Garth

#160 Dupcheck on 04.11.13 at 10:56 am

10% tax on the 1%-ters would be more than the whole wealth owned by the middle and poor classes together. What does that tell you?

Remember the bottom 80% of the population owns only 7% of the whole wealth.

To the filthy wealthy it seems like they are supporting us with welfare money with their taxes, but in contrary. I don’t think any CEO works 238x times more than the average worker, nor do I believe that they are 238x times smarter. A yearly tax increase on the average Canadian is a big sum, but for the filthy wealthy it is a drop in the bucket.

I do believe the 1%-ters are greedier a lot greedier and sneakier. It’s not about fairness, its about being grateful to the people that made them who they are, the regular hard working classes.

Yes, let’s discuss fairness. The top 1% pay 24% of all tax. The other 99% pay 76%, down 10% in the last two decades. — Garth

#161 Victor on 04.11.13 at 11:03 am

is it time for FED to stop the stimulus right now and raise the interest rate?

#162 Big Al New on 04.11.13 at 11:07 am

Based on this .5% melt up everyday in the US markets when will we see Dow 30,000. That’s right Nov 19th of this year, bullish everybody jump in.

US markets are overdue for a correction of up to 10% before the next phase. This is consistent with the pattern since 2010, and reflects American economic fundamentals and corporate profitability. There is no more reason to expect a straight-line advance than a precipitous decline. People here need to stop thinking in absolutes. It rarely reflects reality. — Garth

#163 Fiscal Cliff on 04.11.13 at 11:16 am

#116 Fed-up on 04.11.13 at 1:56 am

@#39 Fiscal Cliff

——————————————————————————–

Indeed, the beaches got slammed during the last correction. Then again, no one was spared. Which may support the theory that the areas that spearheaded this madness may actually get hit every bit as hard as anywhere else, maybe harder.

We shall see…

——————————————————————————–

All areas will see price declines. The degree of decline for a specific area will be determined by the average owner income of that area. If the area’s average owner income has been increasing year to year, it’s overall price decline will be mitigated. Anyone who implies ‘demand areas will be spared…’ is disingenuous. If anything, some demand areas will experience large declines simply because their relevant average incomes have been stagnant and their prices bubbled substantially during the last 10-12 years.

#164 jess on 04.11.13 at 11:19 am

French President Francois Hollande has called for “eradication” of the world’s tax havens and told French banks they must declare all of their subsidiaries.

learn the tricks

Tax Havens 101: The high cost of going offshore

http://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/tax-havens-101-the-high-cost-of-going-offshore/2013/04/06/5d60aaaa-9ee7-11e2-a941-a19bce7af755_video.html

====
attitude
A bank executive who wishes to remain anonymous challenges these accusations. “The black list of tax havens drawn up by the OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] no longer exists. Every one of them has signed a tax treaty. Why should we refuse to work in territories that are not on file?” he wonders, then continues: “We apply rules when they exist. If politicians have the courage to penalize countries they consider opaque, we’ll adapt. It’s not up to the banks to do the policing. We’re not the police or the army, let alone prosecutors.”

===========
30 percent of the more than 3.9 million households whose properties were foreclosed on by 11 leading financial institutions in 2009 and 2010, had to battle potentially wrongful efforts to seize their homes despite not having defaulted on their loans, being protected under a host of federal laws, or having been in good standing under bank-approved plans to either restructure their mortgages or temporarily delay required payments.

More than 244,000 of those borrowers eventually lost their homes, government data show.

http://inthesetimes.com/news/entry/14849/one_in_three_foreclosures_triggered_by_bank_error/

#165 HD on 04.11.13 at 11:19 am

#95 makeuhumble on 04.11.13 at 12:05 am

Hi Garth. Re: “rebalance often”. How often? 3 months? 6 months? 12?
I invested my savings in the complete couch potato model portfolio back in February. With the TSX tanking like it has, would you (or any other astute investors who read this blog) say that now is a good time to rebalance? The couch potato folks seem to recommend rebalancing every 12 months but I would appreciate other opinions.
Doomers and magpies need not reply.
Thanks!

Here is my take on this.

In an ideal world you would rebalance as often as possible.

However, the transaction fees are a problem.

You need at least 2 transactions to rebalance. $9.95 times 2 (assuming this is your transaction cost).

You guessed it.

If you make the decision to rebalance, your move has to offset the transaction cost. Otherwise there is no point.

The larger the portfolio, more often you can rebalance.

If you have a >100K portfolio, you shouldn’t rebalance more than 2-3 times a year…IMHO

Hope that helps.

Best,

HD

#166 Little Orphan Annie on 04.11.13 at 11:20 am

No there will be no collapse, but all the recent BS will manifest itself in different ways.

#167 Tkid on 04.11.13 at 11:29 am

All this talk of goats and land. Two suggestions if you are inclined this way:

1. Check out the goats at Bowmanville Zoo. They are easy to locate, just look for cheetah & lion cages. (Yes I am serious. Those are some seriously unbored lions and cheetas in Bowmanville.)

2. Get some chickens also. Let ’em free to run around and eat bugs and grass and whatever else they eat and not only will your eggs be free-range but Omega-3 also. At least until the local coyotes get ’em.

#168 Mormon in Calgary on 04.11.13 at 11:35 am

As applied to Calgary this site is fresh air compared to the continual buy now that is present in Alberta. Simultaneously many of the predictions at present for real estate on this site are inaccurate for people renting saving up to buy a mortgage. Specifically this site has indicated prices dropping and there has been no evidence of prices fluctuating much since 2007. 2007 was the breaking point when prices in Calgary became ridiculous as the norm. There very may well be a priced reduction in 2020. For those renting in stable work, it may be ill advised to wait as indicated much of the time on this site to rent until 2020, as the rent spent could be >$100,000 spent. As rents in Calgary are the same as mortgages, it is not justified to rent unless mobility and/or job security are issues, or close to retirement. I see no specific statistics supporting the viewpoint of this site as applied to Alberta. Instead I see a lot of conjecture about what may happen. It is unwise to live life in a reactive manner. Figure out what you want and do it rather than wasting time on irrelevant nonsense that doesnt apply to you, of which the mainstream media is so good at doing, blasting the public with anyone not smart enough to filter it all out and ignore it completely. One of the best thoughts to remember is that the financial and all sectors are filled with a bunch of unethical liars who will do anything to protect themselves. It is best to mentally disconnect from this screwed up society and not expect much from people, your job, or anything else. What is more important is have more expectations of your own behavior and your own personal goals, which should be completely independent of what other people do. Figure out what you need to do to get a housing situation that suits you based on facts, not possibilities, and then live your life fulfilling your goals, underground and away from all the total nonsense that defines current society.

Are you currently in therapy? — Garth

#169 Bottoms_Up on 04.11.13 at 11:44 am

#137 pbrasseur on 04.11.13 at 8:12 am
——————————————-
“Complaisance” inpired me:

Rage against the Machine; song: Know your Enemy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4smim2MNvF8

“Come on!
Yes I know my enemies.
They’re the teachers who taught me to fight me. Compromise, conformity, assimilation, submission Ignorance, hypocrisy, brutality, the elite.
All of which are American dreams.
All of which are American dreams.
All of which are American dreams.
All of which are American dreams.
All of which are American dreams.
All of which are American dreams.
All of which are American dreams.”

#170 Joe on 04.11.13 at 11:48 am

If the doom and gloom is getting you down, Carnival Cruise’s on sale.

#171 AisA on 04.11.13 at 11:50 am

#137 pbrasseur on 04.11.13 at 8:12 am

“26% unemployment in Greece, much more among the youth!”

When I packed my luggage and called it quits trying to live the dream life it was at 9%. I am very good at reading the writing on the wall. I left Greece just over a year ago. Touched down in the country that I had been raised in, worked, lived, and played in for 28 years. I looked around and said to myself, “out of the frying pan and into the fire, eh?

tick, tock, tick, tock… fairy tale values won’t last long. It’s not that I am a pessimist, it is more like my thinking is not clouded by optimism.

#172 mac on 04.11.13 at 11:51 am

Why are you so anti-doomer when you were one in 2008?

Because it’s not 2008. And I wasn’t. — Garth

#173 macduff on 04.11.13 at 12:02 pm

Garth, I’m coming into some money by way of an inheritance. What do you think of buying real estate in Florida at this point?

#174 Penny Henny on 04.11.13 at 12:05 pm

#100 BigAl (Original) on 04.11.13 at 12:11 am

#161 Big Al New on 04.11.13 at 11:07 am

I know a Big Al too.
What is it about Al’s that make them big?

Penny Henny

#175 Blacksheep on 04.11.13 at 12:05 pm

“Yes, let’s discuss fairness.”

“The top 1% pay 24% of all tax. The other 99% pay 76%, down 10% in the last two decades. — Garth”
—————————————————–
How many could see themselves, posting the above comment, on this blog?

Empathy? Anyone?

Those poor 1%’s unable to shelter all, their loot.

Reducing Serf taxes, outrageous!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mn4daYJzyls

Moms are for empathy. Go visit her. — Garth

#176 Bill on 04.11.13 at 12:06 pm

This is a dangerous game! “Dangerous” because human nature or psychology is involved. The central banks are trying to increase spending by lowering interest rates to zero, publicly debasing through over issuance and now through the “threat” (promise) of account confiscations (bank runs). So what’s the danger? That it actually works…that’s what! Human nature is a funny duck and when it comes to investing the “herd” mentality fits perfectly.

Should the official policy to get spending started begin to work(it will), there will be no way to stop it. Once the “runs” begin, they will spread, grow and run their course. THIS may be exactly what is “planned” and a push toward global “backed” (by Gold and other hard assets) currencies will arrive. The problem as I see it is that Gold will go through a short squeeze unlike any other ever seen. Supply is less than finite and demand will include those who “thought” they owned Gold through empty ETF’s and the like. Greed, fear, forced short covering and every other reason on Earth will line up as demand for Gold. Gold will be priced far above the ability for the common man to purchase, even governments (think China and Russia) will not receive much “weight” for their purchases. It will be a different game. History will call this “hyperinflation”. Once started, just as in a wildfire everything will burn until there is nothing left as fuel for the fire! It now appears that dealers are paying $2.70 over the “spot” paper (soon to be a big smudge?) price of Silver for junk and almost $3 to procure Eagles. This represents between a 10-12% premium BEFORE a fair mark up! So what does this mean? It means that the “powers that be” have sold the paper market price down so far that it will soon be irrelevant. Physical “owners” are NOT WILLING to sell at the current price to make up the continual deficit between supply and demand. As always happens, Mother Nature is “fixing” the problem (deficit of supply) with a premium in price

#177 Austrian school on 04.11.13 at 12:10 pm

The banks’ main holding is US$. Explain that. — Garth
Really? You need an explanation for that? I know you are high on keynesian hopium, but you must know better somewhere in that head of yours.

#178 cramar on 04.11.13 at 12:11 pm

#82 Fabrega on 04.10.13 at 11:31 pm
#2 Blase
“3 bedroom mobile homes in Southern Ontario can be had for less than $50,000. Warm weather, fellow-retirees, access to tons of facilities. ”

Warm weather??? Only 3 months per year, right?

——————

That depends on your frame of reference.

A) Compared to FL? Maybe right, or maybe 5 months.

B) Compared to Prairies or Maritimes? 12 months!

#179 Bill on 04.11.13 at 12:13 pm

Do you remember hearing the story of 2 butchers with shops across the street from each other? One has a sign in his window for filet mignon at $5 per pound and the other $20 (the original story was $1 and $4 but that was many inflated years ago). A patron walks into the store with a sign for $5 per pound only to find that he is sold out (and never had any to begin with) and then he walks into the other store. He asks if the butcher has any filet mignon and then complains that the price is too high. The butcher retorts “good luck waiting for that $5 per pound filet mignon”. The point? They are riding the brake and flooring the gas at the same time by trying to create “velocity” while at the same time breaking the thermometers (suppressing the prices of Gold and Silver). This cannot work for any length of time because “stirring up the herd” cannot be stopped once started. If (when) they actually do get some “velocity” of money, some of this will naturally (already has and is) find its way toward the precious metals. The problem is this, if the shelves go bare and investors find that metal is not available, human nature will make them want it even MORE! Nothing will create demand in a bigger fashion than when something is unavailable which is exactly what unnaturally low prices will do!We need to watch this event very closely as the entire paper system cannot be held together if the lid blows off the physical market. I have thought all along that the physical market would overwhelm the paper market. It came very close in the fall of 2008, this looks to be the beginning of a second swing at it.

My condolences on your choices. But I’m proud of your spirit. — Garth

#180 cramar on 04.11.13 at 12:15 pm

A correction is not a crash, it’s a correction. The last three years have contained corrections of between 10% and 20%, and markets have moved on each time to establish new highs. I expect a similar pattern. — Garth

Unless a double-digit fall happens over days instead of weeks or months. Then it is defined as “a crash”.

#181 Bobbo on 04.11.13 at 12:16 pm

Suckers
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100634578

Mr Ponzi would be proud

#182 wilbur on 04.11.13 at 12:21 pm

Garth,

Would you like to share with your readers your top 10 Reits and ETFs? Canadian and American…

I am sure your readers would be most interested.

Nope. It’s unethical to recommend specific assets without knowing if they’re suitable for a person. One size does not fit all when it comes to investing. — Garth

#183 Edward on 04.11.13 at 12:23 pm

Haha…. Love reading this blog–there’s so many insanely angry people here. They argue Garth’s opinions like crazy. But the truth is, if you followed his advice for the last year and a half–sold your McMansion at the top of the market, invested properly between fixed income and growth, dollar-cost-averaged it, and rebalanced several times, you’ve made out like a bandit. Thanks, G-Man! You’ve made me some good cash. Anyone who didn’t pay attention, well…. You can stand on the dock and watch as that ship sails away.

#184 LP on 04.11.13 at 12:26 pm

#167Tkid on 04.11.13 at 11:29 am

and not only will your eggs be free-range but Omega-3 also.
*********************************
The HENS are free-range. The eggs are pretty much the definition of “couch potato”.

#185 Crash Calaway on 04.11.13 at 12:32 pm

Garth,

My financial adviser suggested I buy a goat.
Can I claim the goat as a dependent?
Will the milk from the goat be considered capital gains?

#186 Good Authority on 04.11.13 at 12:33 pm

“If you think I’m full of crap and we’re still doomed, buy a goat.” Garth
——————————————————–
This day gets better and better thanks to you Garth.

Cull Nannies 75.00 – 100.00 per head
Cull Billie 120.00 – 170.00 per head

Got me a Nannie and a Billie today close to the low end of the price range.

I am thinking of naming them after you.

The only thing certain in life is that they will still be around after the banksters sink the ship yet again.

#187 Gary M on 04.11.13 at 12:37 pm

#172 mac on 04.11.13 at 11:51 am
Why are you so anti-doomer when you were one in 2008?

Because it’s not 2008. And I wasn’t. — Garth

——————————————————-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fm7v_KwnTJU

An excellent interview for the day it aired. Caution was warranted. Today we are blessed with an incremental recovery. — Garth

#188 TEMPLE on 04.11.13 at 12:39 pm

US markets are overdue for a correction of up to 10% before the next phase. This is consistent with the pattern since 2010, and reflects American economic fundamentals and corporate profitability. There is no more reason to expect a straight-line advance than a precipitous decline. People here need to stop thinking in absolutes. It rarely reflects reality. — Garth

I have to call you on this, Garth. You are market timing. When you say a correction is “overdue,” you imply a predictability and logic to market movements. I am also suspicious when you refer to patterns.

You are making some very arbitrary predictions and if you think fundamentals have anything to do with corrections, you are incorrect.

Besides, even if a correction is overdue by your estimation, that isn’t actionable advice. Given that you are unlikely to be able to reasonably time a correction (even if you do eventually prove correct), it would make no sense for an investor to defer prudent investing.

Correction or not, there is still plenty of value in the markets.

TEMPLE

That was meaningless. Any market which adds 12% in 100 days is more vulnerable to profit-taking. — Garth

#189 John in Mtl on 04.11.13 at 12:41 pm

To everyone who took the time to reply about the Bitcoin article I posted…

I’m not necessarily a fan of Bitcoin because I’m not knowledgeable enough on these matters. I was merely trying to illustrate the point that TPTB tolerates no dissent and they’ll manipulate anything that threatens their monopoly. Its just another kind of war.

“Welcome my son, welcome to the machine”… “Its all right we told you what to dream”…

I should have listened more closely when I was a younger man ;)

John

#190 Bobby on 04.11.13 at 12:42 pm

I’m increasingly surprised how financially illiterate many Canadians are. #175 Blacksheep and #185 pinstripe are indicative of the utter lack of financial knowledge out there. It is no wonder people believe much of the misleading advertising out there.

Yes it’s true, a very small percentage of Canadians pay a significant greater share of income taxes.

In a lot of ways I empathize with politicians today. It seems the lower down you move on the income scale, the higher are the expectations.

#191 John in Mtl on 04.11.13 at 12:48 pm

@ #176 Bill on 04.11.13 at 12:06 pm

Funny, that was one of my imagined possible scenarios; that manipulation would be to force people to spend. But most people can no longer spend! Corporations could spend but they won’t… money is power and they might need it for eventual hostile takeovers.

Besides, what’s stopping people from withdrawing their cash and putting it under their mattress or burying it somewhere instead of spending what they could?

John

#192 Old Man on 04.11.13 at 12:53 pm

#187 Good Authority – I have a friend who owns a goat farm in Ingersoll, Ontario and she tells me you paid too much. She breeds the best grass eaters in Ontario for those people who are devoid of a lawn mower.

#193 Tkid on 04.11.13 at 1:11 pm

and not only will your eggs be free-range but Omega-3 also.
*********************************
The HENS are free-range. The eggs are pretty much the definition of “couch potato”.

OMG!!!! That label on the carton of eggs in the supermarket lied to me!

#194 I am in C on 04.11.13 at 1:15 pm

Here’s the latest heartwarming article from Toronto Star’s resident real estate pumper and shill, Susan Pigg. It’s also the second in a week to feature realtor Jillinda Green – and her ‘house stagers’.

http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2013/04/10/toronto_home_where_history_speaks_volumes_sells_for_over_asking_price.html

FYI here’s last weeks offering:

http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2013/04/06/every_house_has_a_story_this_one_started_in_nairobi_almost_50_years_ago.html

#195 TEMPLE on 04.11.13 at 1:21 pm

That was meaningless. Any market which adds 12% in 100 days is more vulnerable to profit-taking. — Garth

Just not true. How about 6% in 50 days? Same deal? My point is that predicting a correction based on recent market movements is an arbitrary call (i.e., a guess). Profit taking is an unpredictable activity and may not happen, especially if valuations are reasonable.

If you are investing on anything other than value, you are throwing darts blindfolded.

TEMPLE

What a stupid conversation. Fortunately it’s over. — Garth

#196 spaceman on 04.11.13 at 1:33 pm

ETFS better than Mutual funds ?

Fees are too high, and non-deductible. ETFs far superior, and more liquid — Garth

Depends on how much you have in your Self Directed account, and how often you trade.

I have a Self Directed acount, the Royal nails me with a $100 fee every year to keep it going, and 25 a trade. My mutual funds don’t cost anything out of pocket to trade back and forth, they bitch if you do it too often, but screwem, its my money. I try to keep my expense’s on the SD to below 2%, but its not easy.when you can get Index funds with a MER of .5 ? Well you be the judge.

I am almost done with SD, I know the MER’s eat up a lot but compared to my shitty track record with trading, its a lot easier to deal with.

Garth is the Rambo of investing, I am just a mere mortal being… more like a Gilligan… MF’s work for me.

#197 Soylent Green is People on 04.11.13 at 1:36 pm

Tim Hortons “is a company a lot of Canadians identify with and it is very proudly a Canadian brand,” says Howard Ramos, an associate professor of sociology at Dalhousie University in Halifax.

“But it’s also a company that is a pioneer in hiring and abusing temporary foreign workers and so for this reason I think it’s important to highlight Tim Hortons as an exemplar of how the temporary foreign worker program has changed and expanded.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/12/11/f-temporary-foreign-worker-program-tim-hortons-canada.html

In 2008, a representative of Tim Hortons’ licensing company, TDL Group Inc., told the federal citizenship and immigration committee that the company had more than 600 temporary foreign workers at stores across Canada, with another 400 arriving later in the year.

.
.
.
.

#198 SM_YYC on 04.11.13 at 1:52 pm

Calgary is not different after all:
http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/What+happened+expected+Alberta+real+estate+boom/8227385/story.html

#199 Basil Fawlty on 04.11.13 at 1:55 pm

Garth, you conveniently ignore that the the sale of 13.9T of gold by Cyprus is part of their bailout agreement, not a “dump”. In addition, this sale pales in comparison to the purchase of 540T, by Central banks, in the last year.
Seems to me you are rigging the facts to suport your conclusions.
You continually talk about having to sell to take gold profits, yet do not apply this logic to increases in the stock market indexes.

Of course I do. What do you think ‘rebalancing’ means? Sheesh. — Garth

#200 bcPaul on 04.11.13 at 1:58 pm

#55 Dodged-a-Bullit-in-Alberta

Just read, don’t type. wow

#201 Buy? Curious? on 04.11.13 at 1:59 pm

Doomers are like those nerds who predicted Global warming and force-fed us those gawddamn entertainment efficient light bulbs. Have you seen Toronto? It’s a mess out there with freezing rain.

#202 goldenfox on 04.11.13 at 2:07 pm

On the Good Ship Lollypop!

“Confiscating depositor money is planned for future European bank failures, and Canada, the United States, and New Zealand have similar plans. Those plans may, or may not, be executed.”

http://www.goldseek.com/tools/print.php

You guys keep telling yourself that if it makes you happy. — Garth

#203 Recovering fear porn addict on 04.11.13 at 2:19 pm

‘People who bought Bitcoins also believe in zombie apocalypse.’

Bad news – the zombie apocalypse is already here.

Don’t believe me? Go to a mall and see for yourself.

Folks, this is important and needs to be seriously considered.

There are two ways to be fooled. The first is to believe that which is false. The second is to refuse to believe that which is true.

There is a lot of wisdom when Mr Turner says, of the next big crash, not in our lifetime.

Time to stop worrying and make the most of your time here.

#204 Steve on 04.11.13 at 2:23 pm

Power of the People:

RBC has issued an apology to employees over outsourcing.

In a letter posted to their site, the bank apologized and pledged to keep call centres in Canada. It said it will also “(review) our supplier arrangements and policies with a continued focus on Canadian jobs and prosperity.”

#205 RBC Haters on 04.11.13 at 2:36 pm

If you don’t like what RBC is doing you better get used to it because it will get worse.

For one, most jobs nowadays can be done at the same level or better by advanced robots and more so with every advancement in the field. Only thing keeping jobs around today is the costs of the robots and that is getting cheaper and cheaper every day. For now cheaper labor will do, then once even those wages are too much (just look at china’s soaring wages) then companies will look elsewhere until the price point of robot workers make it no longer necessary to employ humans at all.

All this because of large corporations greed and need for growth and of course their influence on politicians who have all been paid off.

We used to live a happy and good life with a family with 5+ kids and one full time worker. Now with women’s lib we have all been told that everyone should work hard and be career oriented. So no more large families and even still families, not by choice but by necessity, need two full-time jobs to get by. In some cases even multiple jobs all the while the corporations are hoarding their cash in offshore accounts to avoid paying billions in taxes. Great for corporate profits but means the tax slaves will be paying even more in taxes to make up the differences requiring to work even more.

All great, but heck now with everyone in careers and not having kids now we have a shortage in skilled workers. No problem when the supply of workers are shrinking and you don’t want to pay more to get the workers you need, just get em cheap through immigration. Problem solved. Oh but if we can get cheap immigrants why do you need to hire anyone here anyways. Just fire your high paid Canadian workers and replace them with cheap immigrants.

You want to bring in Grandma and Grampa from China to immigrate to Canada thats at least a 8 year wait but for replacing a Canadian worker they speed up the whole immigration process for them.

At the same time run a campaign to destroy all unions that exist which help keep wages high here. MSM is working harder than ever to destroy the unions. Unions which fight hard for the rights of the workers for decent salary and benefits and strike only if the union members vote on it. I wish I had the ability to vote on every decision the policies our politicians make. But that would give us all too much power so instead we get to vote for which corrupt paid off politicians we want to be making these decisions for us. Once unions have been destroy they can work on or reforming or eliminating all our labour laws. Those only make it more costly for corporations doing business in Canada.

Corporations don’t want to have any employer rights or any kind of group voice as with unions. They want us all separated and isolated dealing with issues on our own.

What are things going to look like for our kids and their kids? Not so bright.

If you really think this is a non issue, keep drinking the $MSM koolaid. All your elected politicians are all there for the people.

#206 AK on 04.11.13 at 2:38 pm

#182 wilbur on 04.11.13 at 12:21 pm
“Garth,

Would you like to share with your readers your top 10 Reits and ETFs? Canadian and American…

I am sure your readers would be most interested.”
——————————————————————–
Here are 2 of them.

T.BPO
T.D.UN

You probably work in one of their office towers.

#207 Humpty Dumpty on 04.11.13 at 2:38 pm

This Chevon likes to milk the press….

Big banks ‘more dangerous than ever’, IMF’s Christine Lagarde says

“In too many cases – from the United States in 2008 to Cyprus today – we have seen what happens when a banking sector chooses the quick buck over the lasting benefit, backing a business model that ultimately destabilizes the economy. We simply cannot have pre-crisis banking in a post-crisis world.

“We need reform, even in the face of intense pushback from an industry sometimes reluctant to abandon lucrative lines of business.”

Almost five years since Lehman Brothers collapsed, she claimed: “The ‘oversize banking’ model of too-big-to-fail is more dangerous than ever. We must get to the root of the problem with comprehensive and clear regulation.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9985280/Big-banks-more-dangerous-than-ever-IMFs-Christine-Lagarde-says.html

#208 Suede on 04.11.13 at 2:39 pm

Don’t buy tinfoil

Buy the company that makes aluminum foil

Alcoa

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AA+Interactive#symbol=aa;range=2y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

#209 Suede on 04.11.13 at 2:43 pm

#75 Shawn

Checkmate!

#210 Close Call in Calgary on 04.11.13 at 2:57 pm

#168 Mormon in Calgary on 04.11.13 at 11:35 am

Seriously?

#211 Goldfinger on 04.11.13 at 3:20 pm

Garth any comments on Brad “Ponzi” Lambs latest pump and dump seminar in Ottawa?

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2013/04/words-fail-us-torontos-condo-king-brian.html

#212 Men Who Stare At Sheeple on 04.11.13 at 3:30 pm

The stock markets continue their upward climb, global unemployment and debt continues to explode, the Fed continues to print $85 billion per month, BRIC’s countries are delinking from the US dollar! It will soon be time for another war! This is why we continually hear the war drums beat!

The international bankers have put the western world into a global debt death spiral with no hope of any nation ever being able to repay this manufactured debt, so it will soon be time for another war to focus the sheeple’s attention away from the global economic train wreck that they have engineered!

The US/Israel is rabidly pursuing war with Iran and if that fails it’s on to Option B: North Korea! The US/Israel is trying to provoke Iran or North Korea into a military confrontation. Prepare for a possible US/Israel false flag attack against Iran or North Korea! Example: targeting a US warship and blaming Iran or North Korea for the attack! Or perhaps another 9/11 type attack on America or Europe to be blamed on Iran or some other Muslim country. Their options are endless!

It’s time for people to learn some real history of government sponsored false flag terrorism! Here is an excellent must watch short video http://archive.org/details/WhenFalseFlagsDontFly

The stock markets have become totally detached from reality and only serve as a sideshow distraction to what is really transpiring behind the scenes!

#213 :):( Ying Yang on 04.11.13 at 3:31 pm

#54 Smoking Man on 04.10.13 at 10:42pm

Welcome back Smoking Man, good to see you we’re not off reading The Electric Kool-Acid Test. Still want to know how Forex is treating you? It kicks everyone a$$ pretty hard if you’re not on top of things.

#214 espressobob on 04.11.13 at 3:35 pm

#159 The BigLebowski

Shared the same mindset not that long ago. The problem was simple, it didn’t work. Why fight the markets? Today all the bases are covered and profit is taken and stuffed in underperformers. The concept is simple enough but doing it is quite difficult.

The Dow and S&P 500 have had some nice gains. If you rebalance your already a winner. Takes some practice, good luck.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/11/rebalancing-strategies.asp

#215 Blacksheep on 04.11.13 at 3:39 pm

Bobby 191,

“Yes it’s true, a very small percentage of Canadians pay a significant greater share of income taxes.”

Of course they do because, a very small percentage of Canadians generate a significantly greater share of income.

Question is, why one would have issue with this?

Would you prefer a flat tax on your gross, across the board say the suggested 10% with no write offs, tax inputs, dividends, income splitting or loop holes?

Why the hell go in business?

I sure know I would not. My business and I would pay considerably more tax than we do now. My CGA keeps things cool with the CRA just the way they are, thank you very much.

You Sir, assume too much.

#216 Old Man on 04.11.13 at 3:40 pm

#200 pinstripe – Listen to Mr. Turner as am waiting about his take on the insurance business. Now they all want to sell whole life which has a savings element, but is too expensive to give you proper coverage, but what is the hidden commission? It varies from company to company, but how about 130% during the first 3 years, and 2% thereafter, as the agent is worse than a Real Estate agent. Proper coverage does not pay as well, but it will be 20% for the first year, and perhaps 2% thereafter, and 5 year renewal is the only way to go, as know this business well.

#217 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 04.11.13 at 3:44 pm

.

Words fail us… Toronto’s Condo King Brian Lamb’s latest sales pitch.

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2013/04/words-fail-us-torontos-condo-king-brian.html

“If you’d rather not eat cat food in your retirement, you’d better invest in condos.”

– Developer Brad J. Lamb.

==================================

Woof Woof Baaaaahhhhhhd Lamb

#218 Barry in Pickering on 04.11.13 at 3:54 pm

[Garth] A good portfolio mix is 60% growth, 40% fixed.

Oh, so your conservative 5-6% per year solid portfolio is really 60% growth equity? And people are supposed to mortgage their homes to get in on this? Good grief.

You really have no idea what you’re talking about, do you? — Garth

#219 Buy? Curious? on 04.11.13 at 3:57 pm

Hey!!! Check out my day! First Garth publishes my insight into the Global Warming Scam, THEN, on today’s episode of the Keiser Report, a financial commentary show, that’s a little more, hmmm, animated, than this blog, mentions my name constantly during the conversation about Bitcoin!

Check it out, blog poodles and cocker spaniels, RT.com

Don’t hate the player, hate the game! Unless of course it’s golf and you hate them both. See that 14yr old Chinese kid playing along side with Tiger?

#220 Buy? Curious? on 04.11.13 at 3:59 pm

You can hate! Damn this abnormally large thumb.

#221 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 04.11.13 at 4:09 pm

Here is Brad Lamb at pre sale line-up, opening the doors for the herd

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tgQqiKrJig

#222 Alnoor Mithani on 04.11.13 at 4:19 pm

Garth

Love reading your blog however I think you have been economical with the verite with respect to the much fabled performance of stock markets. Rising equity markets are not the product of great corporate performance, strong consumer spending, robust fundamentals, growth returning to China, export opportunities to North Korea, ( yes I will get there), opportunities to buy villas in Cyprus or Greece or indeed The advent of Spring, Its simple really – it’s called Quantitative Easing – all those greens with no obvious homes as banks rein in lending. When the stimulus is eased ( as surely as it will as per your predictions that house prices will melt or rates will rise), you wont be recommending holding onto a well balanced portfolio anymore will you?

You are, of course, wrong. More than anything, stocks ride earnings. — Garth

#223 Timbo on 04.11.13 at 4:34 pm

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100632786

“I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that anytime a market has a 22-year high in inventories, it’s not a bull market,” Evans said.

Come on, we need more bull. Without Alberta we are toast.

http://timiacono.com/index.php/2013/04/11/reinflating-the-housing-bubble/

love the cartoon….lol

#224 Timing is Everything on 04.11.13 at 4:34 pm

‘People bending, broken rules’…

“RBC has not and does not hire any temporary foreign workers.” Gord Nixon

http://tinyurl.com/czebees
——————————————————
‘Royal Bank chief executive [Gord Nixon] makes public apology for outsourcing jobs’

http://tinyurl.com/bn5zno7

Nice ‘mug’ shot, btw
———————————————————–
http://tinyurl.com/d6kjjao

#225 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 04.11.13 at 4:38 pm

#126 betamax — “Buy a goat now before you’re priced out forever!”
+
“I’m off to price goats. — Garth”
+
#148 blok existentialist — “Diversify those goats.”
+
#186 Crash Calaway — “My financial adviser suggested I buy a goat. Can I claim the goat as a dependent? Will the milk from the goat be considered capital gains?”
+
#187 Good Authority — “Got me a Nannie and a Billie today . . .”

Like this? Note: In the UK, condoms are better known as rubber johnnies.

Hey SMan, still space truckin’? Life’s a blast, having a great time in K-town!

#226 Old Man on 04.11.13 at 4:40 pm

#220 Barry in Pickering – I keep zero cash in my personal bank accounts and only have two, so made a phone call yesterday as was tapped, and needed $1500, whereby went today to put $300 in my wallet. I have no GIC’s or any term deposits, as they pay nothing, so manage my money on a need to have basis, so I can buy things from day to day. I do not use debit cards, and try never to use a credit card as only have two.

#227 hagbard on 04.11.13 at 4:41 pm

Okay, I’m about to take the leap (after ten years renting) and make an offer on a property in Kingsville Ontario.

Feel free to talk me out of it.

#228 EIT on 04.11.13 at 4:47 pm

Re. yesterdays responses:

#169 EB on 04.10.13 at 1:50 pm

Is there any way to short bitcoins?
————————————————
Yes there is!: https://www.bitfinex.com/

#223 DDCorkum on 04.11.13 at 12:08 am

Aside from the fact bitcoin tends to be volatile just like many commodities are?

In a nutshell: you print money and mine commodities. Bitcoins are created through a process that is designed to resemble mining, so its functionally a commodity.

———————————————————–

WRONG, hoping for something more like:
A “commodity” is defined under U.S. law as “[a] useful thing; an article of commerce; a moveable and tangible thing produced or used as the subject of barter or sale.”, of which bitcoin satisfies all, even tangible.
The more bitcoins resemble a commodity, the less they function as a currency, its a tradeoff. Anyways, you get an F for your answer.

#229 AisA on 04.11.13 at 4:54 pm

#219 Dr. Hoof – Hearted on 04.11.13 at 3:44 pm

But, but…. why can’t I feed Brad Lamb to my cat??????

oh, forget I said anything.

#230 Tom Vu on 04.11.13 at 4:56 pm

#150 The Prophet Elijah on 04.11.13 at 9:48 am

No wonder. But you’re still over your quota. — Garth—————————————————–
Garth sorry for getting out of control last night and all. Maybe we can start fresh today. I just didn’t know there was a quota as it’s not outlined in your rules.
Can you tell us what the limit for a day is?

Three serious. One specious. — Garth

===================================

What about if they try to bunt ?

#231 Humpty Dumpty on 04.11.13 at 5:10 pm

#219 Dr. Hoof – Hearted on 04.11.13 at 3:44 pm

Woof Woof Baaaaahhhhhhd Lamb

Screaming deal or screaming goats….

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nlYlNF30bVg

#232 Rob Smith on 04.11.13 at 5:48 pm

Wow Garth, you’ve been really taking it on the chin today but fighting back, you got some thick skin that’s for sure.

at least we got a break from smoking man’s daily dose of verbal diarrhea with gibberish sprinkled on top.

The bitcoin crowd needs to get real, it’s a currency made by a guy out of his mom’s basement, people are trading in valued currency for binary numbers , I can only shake my head at the idiocy.

#233 Julie on 04.11.13 at 6:14 pm

Doomers are like those nerds who predicted Global warming and force-fed us those gawddamn entertainment efficient light bulbs. Have you seen Toronto? It’s a mess out there with freezing rain.

Actually…..REAL doomers have been saying that Global Warming is a complete scam. I find it amazing how the MSM is hanging on a thread with words like doomer, conspiracy theorists, tin foil etc….especially since MUCH of what these people have been saying has been factually proven to be correct.

We in BC keep paying this scam carbon tax……shows you what kind of lozers live here.

#234 Axxman on 04.11.13 at 6:17 pm

OK – back to houses. Anyone watching TOSolds? Tons of stuff selling under $600 but overall pace of sales seems even slower than March. Anomolies are C1, C2 and C3 – it appears the buyer didn’t get the memo. Stuff over a million – crickets. $2million plus homes in Mineola – let us pray because there are at least 5 mondo new builds that they are dragging their feet on for fear of flooding the market with more illiquid mausoleums.

#235 Old Man on 04.11.13 at 6:21 pm

#229 hagbard – Kingsville, Ontario is a wonderful town, as know it well, and love this place; they have a great golf course, and so much more. Now the bottom might have hit for a buy, but do some homework, as the properties there might have been discounted ahead of time, so be cautious because you might need to wait a bit more for a buy. Nevertheless, what a great town to live a life.

#236 jess on 04.11.13 at 6:21 pm

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/3-02042013-AP/EN/3-02042013-AP-EN.PDF
3 of 4 chart unemployment 2000-2013

#237 Smoking Man on 04.11.13 at 6:25 pm

The Banklash, Gordon should have apologized on Monday as per my weekend post… There is a benefit for local slaves.

Mind you he’s a quick learner, good thing about this the pressure now being placed on any company that out sources. Don’t do it….

More Jobs Higher rates…. Bad news for basement dwellers.

Hi Vlad enjoy K Town

#238 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 04.11.13 at 6:26 pm

#231 AisA on 04.11.13 at 4:54 pm

#219 Dr. Hoof – Hearted on 04.11.13 at 3:44 pm

But, but…. why can’t I feed Brad Lamb to my cat??????

===========================

I see nothing in the Pre -_Sale agreement that disallows this.

#239 bill on 04.11.13 at 6:28 pm

”Sheesh Garth, why you gotta poke the goldbugs?”
its too bad you cant eat them…they rise to the ‘challenge’
like a trout to a mayfly.

#240 Smoking Man on 04.11.13 at 6:29 pm

#215 :):( Ying Yang on 04.11.13 at 3:31 pm

Made a good recovery, if that margin call didn’t liquidate my 4 bet position that trade would have been +4000 rather than – 2000

#241 Investx on 04.11.13 at 6:33 pm

39 Fiscal Cliff
Garth, your mantra ‘traditional demand areas would be largely spared’ is erroneous. There may be ‘newer’ demand areas that experience smaller declines simply because they recently became ‘demand areas’. So called ‘traditional demand areas’ will not be spared unless their relevant average home owner incomes increased substantially during the last 10-12 years. I’ve been a renter and a home owner in the beaches area for nearly 30 years. The beaches area was not spared from the 1990 to 1996 28% average price decline in Toronto.
—————–

Factors such as price-to-income do not apply in demand areas, apparently.

It’s different there, as per Garth.

The average income in North Toronto is $320,000. — Garth

#242 Fiscal Cliff on 04.11.13 at 6:50 pm

Yes, let’s discuss fairness. The top 1% pay 24% of all tax. The other 99% pay 76%, down 10% in the last two decades. — Garth

———————————————————

Garth, wealth is concentrating and the middle class is being expunged. Financial systems and regulations are enriching predominantly the top 1%. US Quantitative Easing alone is indirectly giving billions of dollars a month to the top 1%. The discussion of fairness is pointless. But then again, All is Fair in Love and War.

Now talk about people without money borrowing 95% of the cost of a house they’ll never afford. Victims? — Garth

#243 Ogopogo on 04.11.13 at 7:00 pm

#183 Edward on 04.11.13 at 12:23 pm
Haha…. Love reading this blog–there’s so many insanely angry people here. They argue Garth’s opinions like crazy. But the truth is, if you followed his advice for the last year and a half–sold your McMansion at the top of the market, invested properly between fixed income and growth, dollar-cost-averaged it, and rebalanced several times, you’ve made out like a bandit. Thanks, G-Man! You’ve made me some good cash. Anyone who didn’t pay attention, well…. You can stand on the dock and watch as that ship sails away.

My thoughts exactly. The way I see it, I’m paid to read this prophetic blog. As I’ve modestly bragged here before, my Garthian balanced, diversified portfolio has performed in the low double-digits for the past 14 months. The best part is, I no longer have to fear a market correction, thanks to the magic of rebalancing.

The doomers here are an endless source of comic relief, especially those who seem incapable of understanding the stunningly obvious logic of rebalancing. Note how many times today alone Garth has had to remind these simple yet apocalyptic souls.

#244 habbit on 04.11.13 at 7:04 pm

When a small group wants to control almost everything
for the benefit of all it can be called socialism,communism,facism whatever. It is our collective responsibility to ensure it does not happen. That is not to say that people with wealth and or power are because of it bad eh. It is our moral obligation to make sure those that cannot look after themselves properly thru no fault of their own are in fact looked after. It also should be that those of us that can look after ourselves do so. Do take care all.

Granite for all! — Garth

#245 Ralph Cramdown Ⓤ on 04.11.13 at 7:05 pm

“But, but…. why can’t I feed Brad Lamb to my cat??????”

DELETED

#246 HAWK on 04.11.13 at 7:39 pm

Here’s where HAM speculated…..er “invested”!

http://worldhousingbubble.blogspot.ca/2012/10/wenzou-property-speculators-are-trapped.html

#247 AK on 04.11.13 at 7:55 pm

“If you think I’m full of crap and we’re still doomed, buy a goat.”
——————————————————————-

I like goats, they are very talented. :-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQev3UoGp2M

#248 ppsez on 04.11.13 at 8:04 pm

There is only one way.
Fight with this 1% and government.
Government is only working for this 1%, not for you. You have to fight for that, there is no other way. Get together.
Your month is finished in paying to all with monopoly businesses like automobile insurance, cable, wireless. Yes, also mortgages but that is your wrong doing. Yes it is true that this 1% lured you to become there victim.
Wake up

Dude. The NDP caucus is down the hall. Orange door. — Garth

#249 rembrandt on 04.11.13 at 8:21 pm

My two cents worth:

Buying real estate in the foreseeable future will turn out to be futile. US prices are dropping again and will deteriorate in 2013-2014 before stabilizing.

Tyler Durden’s picture
Still Think The Housing Recovery Is Sustainable?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/11/2013 – 16:53

While hope springs eternal that the US housing sector ‘record-inventory-compression and foreclosure-stuffed’ ‘recovery’ will become self-sustaining, there are two rather disappointing ‘facts’ to ruin the ‘fiction’ that all is well. As Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg notes, not only are mortgage applications for new purchases stalling rather notably from a ‘red-hot’ +16% YoY in January to a mere +3% in the last week; but an even more critical indicator of housing’s health just turned negative after providing hope for the last 14 months. The year-over-year growth in bank-wide real estate credit has turned down again – after first turning positive in February of 2012. So the first (and second) derivative of real-estate credit is now on the down-swing – not the stuff of sustainable housing recoveries.

#250 Trying to make a buck on 04.11.13 at 10:32 pm

Garth….why so bullish on the American dollar…or any currency for that matter? The fact that the Fed continue to print $85 B a month, with no real signs of growth (unless you get excited about 2%) in the US and with every major central bank globally printing money trying to prop up their economy suggests to me that the day of reckoning us is still in front of us rather than behind us. Do you really think the so called US housing recovery is sustainable if interest rates increase 1 or even 2%?

#251 Doomandgloomer on 04.12.13 at 1:45 pm

T5>myT4

Sumo wrestlers………

#252 Doomandgloomer on 04.12.13 at 2:00 pm

I don’t know why, but any mention of goats is always hilarious. LOL re: all posts referencing goats.

B.G. Gruff

#253 Doomandgloomer on 04.12.13 at 2:08 pm

#161 Dupcheck

Sneakier?

#254 peter on 04.12.13 at 5:19 pm

Bonds & US Dollar are rising while copper, oil, & transports are falling. US indeces are at all time highs. Buy stocks now!!!